MFT - Mainfreight. Global Freight & Logistics

[Sideshow Bob]

Cracker Result!!:t_up:

Mainfreight Full Year Results to 31 March 2022 - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392722)

Commentary

Mainfreight is pleased to confirm our full-year financial results to 31 March 2022; another record result and a more than satisfactory improvement on the prior year. These results should not come as a surprise to our shareholders and the market following our regular updates as a consequence of a highly disrupted year in the world of logistics.

Revenue $5.22 billion Up $1.67 billion or 47.2%
Profit before tax $489.4 million Up $227.0 million or 86.5%
Net profit $355.4 million Up $167.3 million or 88.9%

• Adjusted for foreign exchange impact, Group revenue is up 50.8%, and profit before tax is up 90.5%.
• There are no abnormal items in the current year. Costs associated with the closure of our Russian business have been included in the result.
• A final dividend of 87.0 cents per share has been authorised by the Board of Directors, payable on 22 July 2022.

We are pleased with this result, particularly in light of ongoing supply chain disruptions and pandemic-enforced lockdowns.

[Peitro]

Another satisfactory result $489M

Key to the result is that this is not a one off, the result is repeatable and ongoing normal growth expected

"We do not expect the quantum of profit improvement of this past year (87%) to reoccur in the short term; rather we anticipate we will revert to our normal levels of revenue and profit growth"

[alokdhir]

" Much has been said about the artificial impact on our revenues of inflated air and sea freight rates, and we accept this is a contributing factor. However the performance from our Air & Ocean division also reflects growth achieved in our customer base, with our ability to secure tightly-contested space allocations. Our Transport and Warehousing divisions across all five regions have also improved their financial performance. "

This should settle some MFT bears who think this covid tail winds will die soon ....

[Biscuit]

We already knew this was going to be a great result, but in all the years (decades) I've been a shareholder, I don't think I've seen a more up-beat report. They are humming and brimming with confidence in themselves. Well done Mainfreight!

[BlackPeter]

Just did a bit of number crunching:

Revenue CAGR (10 years): 11.2
Earnings CAGR (10 years): 15.8

... I like it when earnings grow faster than revenue :t_up:

RoE: 24.9% ... extremely satisfactory!
Liabilities to assets: 52.8% ... quite satisfactory

No doubt an outstanding (sorry ... very satisfactory) year, but even if the outlook says that they expect to go back to just normal growth rates ... what is not to like about this company?

Discl: My best "catch" during the 2020 COVID crisis ... some friendly souls sold me these star performers for an avg of $35 per share ... I love to buy well performing "pre-loved" shares.

[iceman]

" Much has been said about the artificial impact on our revenues of inflated air and sea freight rates, and we accept this is a contributing factor. However the performance from our Air & Ocean division also reflects growth achieved in our customer base, with our ability to secure tightly-contested space allocations. Our Transport and Warehousing divisions across all five regions have also improved their financial performance. "

This should settle some MFT bears who think this covid tail winds will die soon ....

I doubt the dogs will let go of their bone !

[alokdhir]

I doubt the dogs will let go of their bone !

U r funny and super sharp ....:p

[winner69]

Wonder when MFT share price will hit $100

Soon I hope

[nztx]

I doubt the dogs will let go of their bone !


A pretty expensive bone .. if I might say so :)

as evidenced by lack of .. well local interest :)

[alokdhir]

Wonder when MFT share price will hit $100

Soon I hope

Not soon ...as not even MFT can fight sentiment ...but one day when $3.75 eps on horizon some Pinnacle will wake up ...:t_up:

[nztx]

Not soon ...as not even MFT can fight sentiment ...but one day when $3.75 eps on horizon some Pinnacle will wake up ...:t_up:


If Govt wake up to it, then bound to slip slide all the way down to $53.87 :)

and that's before a range of taxes to make the eyes water ;)

I hear Nosey Parker's onto it already .. but they've retaped his gob shut in case people don't like
what slips loose ;)

[alokdhir]

If Govt wake up to it, then bound to slip slide all the way down to $53.87 :)

No big worry of that ...Many like BP are waiting to snap it well before that ...with $ 1.60 dividend projected next year ...its becoming rewarding that way too

[winner69]

Mainfreight profits up 90% on last year

Share price up 2% from a year ago says NZX

But weird

[Beagle]

Mainfreight profits up 90% on last year

Share price up 2% from a year ago says NZX

But weird
Good result for sure for MFT but maybe Mr market is forward looking and thinks that global depression George Soros talked about the other day at Davos is an increasingly likely possibility, maybe even a probability ?

[winner69]

Good result for sure for MFT but maybe Mr market is forward looking and thinks that global depression George Soros talked about the other day at Davos is an increasingly likely possibility, maybe even a probability ?

Even worse than a global depression ….George said “Our civilization may not survive.”

Suppose that’ll impact Mainfreight

[Beagle]

Even worse than a global depression ….George said “Our civilization may not survive.”

Suppose that’ll impact Mainfreight

I think most of us find the prospect of nuclear war so frightening we completely dismiss it as a realistic possibility but without any doubt the chances look more real now than at any other time since the Cuban missile crisis 60 years ago.

[winner69]

I think most of us find the prospect of nuclear war so frightening we completely dismiss it as a realistic possibility but without any doubt the chances look more real now than at any other time since the Cuban missile crisis 60 years ago.

Forgot about the global famine stage ……depression to famine to extinction

George a bit gloomy at the moment.

[BlackPeter]

Even worse than a global depression ….George said “Our civilization may not survive.”

Suppose that’ll impact Mainfreight

On the other hand ... I suppose if George is right, Mainfreights performance might be the smallest of our worries.

[Panda-NZ-]

On the other hand ... I suppose if George is right, Mainfreights performance might be the smallest of our worries.

NZ will get very cold.. south america though is predicted to be a decent place in such an event. Or Africa since 15c knocked off global temps will make agriculture viable.

[alokdhir]

Forgot about the global famine stage ……depression to famine to extinction

George a bit gloomy at the moment.

When u become so old and know life so closely ...hard to be positive about anything happening these days ...lol

[nztx]

NZ will get very cold.. south america though is predicted to be a decent place in such an event. Or Africa since 15c knocked off global temps will make agriculture viable.


plan on being around in another 10,000 years, do you ? :)

[Biscuit]

Forgot about the global famine stage ……depression to famine to extinction

George a bit gloomy at the moment.

"Depression, famine, extinction" It's all grist to the mill for Mainfreight. They are a special kind of company.

[Bjauck]

"Depression, famine, extinction" It's all grist to the mill for Mainfreight. They are a special kind of company. How so for Mainfreight in particular? All NZX listed companies are special. At least they haven’t shifted to Australia or been taken over.

[Biscuit]

How so for Mainfreight in particular? All NZX listed companies are special. At least they haven’t shifted to Australia or been taken over.

Special people, special company. I think that's what embodies Mainfreight and its unique culture of doing business successfully, not only in New Zealand, but around the world. Or at least, that's what I've heard.

[alokdhir]

What's the buzz at MFT ....SP slowly and quietly become TA positive ??

[Swala]

What's the buzz at MFT ....SP slowly and quietly become TA positive ??

Looks like you've put the mockers on it!

[longy]

How is the SP at this level is hard to believe? It seems cheap to me. Wishing I have more uncommitted disposable income.

[alokdhir]

How is the SP at this level is hard to believe? It seems cheap to me. Wishing I have more uncommitted disposable income.

Same way GNE reached $ 2.40 ...Bargains all around for next two years view but people waiting to get them cheaper ...which is also a distinct possibility

[mikelee]

Shame the dividend is so little, better bet putting your disposable income on TD I reckon.

[Peitro]

Dividend is 'so little' as they are reinvesting in growth.

[Rawz]

Best dividend payers are those that leave some profits in the business to grow and pay higher dividends the following year..

[Bjauck]

Best dividend payers are those that leave some profits in the business to grow and pay higher dividends the following year..
MFT’s annual dividend has grown from 43c in 2017 to $1 in 2021. It looks like their policy is OK!

[Sideshow Bob]

MFT’s annual dividend has grown from 43c in 2017 to $1 in 2021. It looks like their policy is OK!

Shareprice was approx $25.40 at the end of 2017 and $93.90 at the end of 2021.....

Although if I'd been holding since 2017 I wouldn't be that worried about divvy's!! :cool:

[Jonette]

I've been working on some stats to help to understand economic growth measures and drivers. I came across the ANZ truckometer some years ago and thought it had potential, but they do not do it well, changing data monthly and its not clear that they have a good representative data collection.

So I sourced my own data from Waka Kotahi and selected the sites carefully to capture major routes where the Telemetry is extremely reliable, or as reliable as possible considering the potential for update road sealing stopping data collection. These sites are listed by Waka Kotahi as National sites and get some priority. The output may have some relevance to MFT NZ operations, so I'll post the work here for comments. Anything may be useful so please fell free to jump in.

The chart shows an average count of "Heavy Traffic" or trucks over major NZ highways measured at National Telemetry sites by Waka Kotahi. I can review regionally, but the trends are more influenced by special events, eg Auckland Ports disruption, Lockdowns in 2020 and 2021. The national data picks this up. Take a look.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Dugrc/6/

[Raven74]

Very interesting.

[iceman]

Thanks for sharing Jonette. Good work

[Charlie]

Thanks Jonette .there does seem to be a bit of a drop since the beginning of the year....

[Jonette]

Thanks Jonette .there does seem to be a bit of a drop since the beginning of the year....

Yes, but notice there is a drop every year month on month. The critical point is to note if the level this year, for this month, is higher than the same month last year and the year before, ie is there a trend for each month. I have made the difference grey to help show the differences between each year - unfortunately I can't make a negative difference a different colour

The answer appears that there is a trend for 5 out of 6 months this year with only April showing a dip. ie the trend for the year is positive, while the press is saying that the economy is slowing, trucking seems to be rising. Maybe their data, which is delayed, shows up the April dip more? This data is just a few days old.

[BlackPeter]

Yes, but notice there is a drop every year month on month. The critical point is to note if the level this year, for this month, is higher than the same month last year and the year before, ie is there a trend for each month. I have made the difference grey to help show the differences between each year - unfortunately I can't make a negative difference a different colour

The answer appears that there is a trend for 5 out of 6 months this year with only April showing a dip. ie the trend for the year is positive, while the press is saying that the economy is slowing, trucking seems to be rising. Maybe their data, which is delayed, shows up the April dip more? This data is just a few days old.

Hmm - just wondering how you would take all the Covid jitter out of these data to make them in any way meaningful? Obviously last year as well as this year was significantly impacted by Covid - big and long lockdowns last year (followed by relief spikes) and huge Omicron related staff shortages this year.

If you have only a very small number of datapoints pushed around by a lot of uncorrelated factors it is tough to reliably define a trend ...

[Jonette]

Hmm - just wondering how you would take all the Covid jitter out of these data to make them in any way meaningful? Obviously last year as well as this year was significantly impacted by Covid - big and long lockdowns last year (followed by relief spikes) and huge Omicron related staff shortages this year.

If you have only a very small number of datapoints pushed around by a lot of uncorrelated factors it is tough to reliably define a trend ...

The covid impacts are visible, but should be kept else you nullify the data with potentially bias choices of normalisation. For any event you should look for impacts. eg you can see the impact of Lockdowns 1 & 2 - PLUS you can see the impact of Auckland Port lockout. Staff shortages this year are a slow moving change, yet traffic is up despite this, ie I would expect it to be down, so maybe that shows too.

This is real data, which always includes warts, eg Telemetry machines inoperable, data entry errors, road diversion delays. The value of such data is in finding a trend the informs you about an activity or event. Examples I can think of for this data include; trucking movements, economic activity, building activity, fuel use. The data is updated weekly which makes it a very early warning indicator.

The number of datapoints is hugh, I have almost 60,000 records from every day of every month ie between 600,000 and 800,000 truck measures a month. I'm not sure the number of measurement locations is relevant in NZ, eg a site north of Waikanae plus one in Remutaka captures all traffic north of Wellington in both directions - difficult to increase that and of zero relevance. Auckland is similar, while I get up to three sites per city, only Auckland, Christchurch and Wellington count much. Adding smaller cities has minimal change to trends in this data. A very interesting comparison is to take the site with the greatest count (DRURY) and plot the same chart - it looks very similar for the last 2 years after a step up from 2018-20, maybe port to port traffic changes?

I do accept that the number of weekdays in a month makes a difference, I have not normalised for that, recall each year this changes for every month. I am planning to find an easy way to compare weeks (1-52) rather than months (1-12), which makes a lot more sense, but takes more work.

[Peitro]

Quick questions for those that are more in the know than me.

If MFT repeats its performance, zero growth.

Will bonuses invested in staff drop materially ($50M) resulting in a ($50M) increase in NP?

I don't believe zero or negative growth is possible, just thinking that the shareholders have effectively paid a one off step for the growth that has been achieved

[BlackPeter]

Quick questions for those that are more in the know than me.

If MFT repeats its performance, zero growth.

Will bonuses invested in staff drop materially ($50M) resulting in a ($50M) increase in NP?

I don't believe zero or negative growth is possible, just thinking that the shareholders have effectively paid a one off step for the growth that has been achieved

Hmm - you seem to operate on a total different wavelength than Mainfreight.

Shareholders (well, the board guided by an outstanding CEO) expressed with the last staff bonus their gratitude to a staff which achieved an amazing (Oops - satisfying) result under extremely difficult conditions.

I don't think that the majority of the bonus last time was subject to any growth conditions ... and I expect management to do this time as well the right thing - pay a bonus in their discretion if & where appropriate.

[Rawz]

MFT employee expense bill will always be higher than the previous year. (That’s a guess, I actually don’t know for sure, historically speaking.)

Simply because of wage inflation and the fact MFT is always expanding.

[Peitro]

"First 16 weeks’ performance pleasing"

Pleasing!

That is an upgrade and a half from satisfactory!

[alokdhir]

"First 16 weeks’ performance pleasing"

Pleasing!

That is an upgrade and a half from satisfactory!

PBT in 16 weeks up 82.9% ....thats Super Satisfactory !!! :t_up:

MFT is the star of the day and of my portfolio too !!!

[winner69]

PBT in 16 weeks up 82.9% ....thats Super Satisfactory !!! :t_up:

MFT is the star of the day and of my portfolio too !!!

Jeez keep that +83% up they will making about $650m or $6.40 per share

At $75.50 that puts them on a PE less than 12 ....jeez jeez

Why isn't MFT over 100 bucks ...today

[alokdhir]

Jeez keep that +83% up they will making about $650m or $6.40 per share

At $75.50 that puts them on a PE less than 12 ....jeez jeez

Why isn't MFT over 100 bucks ...today

All are not as smart as u ...so they will take their time to decipher that ...lol

But they also sounded slowing economies will hinder growth but will ease pressures too by less congestions etc

From their update its not looking any slowdown anywhere YET ...so front loading further hikes on cards ...then 3-6 months to see its effects

I think MFT will end up with final EPS of $ 4.25 or more ...still it should be $ 100 in 6 months time ...:D

[mikelee]

Hope you're right buddy, I'm still trying to break even from the $96+ that I paid for not that long ago. ;)

[alokdhir]

After some more study of data of last year's trading update and final results ...it was up 97 % at AGM update of 17 weeks which translated to full year PBT growth of 86.5% .....This year's AGM update of 16 weeks is up 83% ....if rest all equal should translate to full year PBT growth of 70%

That will be astounding growth from new markets and new customers !!!

[iceman]

After some more study of data of last year's trading update and final results ...it was up 97 % at AGM update of 17 weeks which translated to full year PBT growth of 86.5% .....This year's AGM update of 16 weeks is up 83% ....if rest all equal should translate to full year PBT growth of 70%

That will be astounding growth from new markets and new customers !!!

They just keep on delivering these astonishing numbers. I don't think the slowing economies around the World will have much negative effect on MFT as it will ease congestion and allow MFT to provide a quicker service. The CAPEX and growth around the World with new warehouses will ensure ongoing fast growth, like we've seen this year with the "Americas".
One of NZ's best companies without a doubt.

[Muse]

They just keep on delivering these astonishing numbers. I don't think the slowing economies around the World will have much negative effect on MFT as it will ease congestion and allow MFT to provide a quicker service. The CAPEX and growth around the World with new warehouses will ensure ongoing fast growth, like we've seen this year with the "Americas".
One of NZ's best companies without a doubt.

astonishing, fantastic, amazing, gobsmacking, bewildering, perplexing....so many synonyms to choose from. What a performance. I wouldn't have tipped that growth rate after dozens of guesses. Plenty of cautionary language in the presso but none the less adding customers and growing the footprint. It is amazing what a superb company, with a superb management team, with a coherent growth plan, sound capital structure can do in sublime operating conditions. It won't always be this way, but for now it is, and appropriate to stand back and be in awe of what they are achieving at this moment in time.

[kiora]

Ditto. I'm awe as well .
In spite of high fuel prices hitting it out of the park!
One of those shares I never bought because seemed to expensive ,daaa !

Interesting reviewing how they achieve this?
What is their moat?

[alokdhir]

Ditto. I'm awe as well .
In spite of high fuel prices hitting it out of the park!
One of those shares I never bought because seemed to expensive ,daaa !

Interesting reviewing how they achieve this?
What is their moat?

Their biggest Moat is their execution skills ...people skills especially with staff ...so motivated that they do everything like its their own business . Vision to replicate their winning strategy in new countries one after another ...

I see them having $ 10 Billion revenue in 5 years

This year's eps targets will get upgraded soon from 3.75 to 5+ ...imo

So at forward p/e of just 30 ...which is justifiable as they growing more then 20% YOY ...1 year target should be $ 150

[Bjauck]

Ditto. I'm awe as well .
In spite of high fuel prices hitting it out of the park!
One of those shares I never bought because seemed to expensive ,daaa !

Interesting reviewing how they achieve this?
What is their moat?
What a performer since their float in the late 1990's! I had thought they would be a plodding "old economy" business. Oops! At least they are a expensive company that actually turns a profit. It is not based on a wing and prayer. I have taken the risk before of buying an expensive company that had yet to be profitable....

[Peitro]

If I can accumulate a further parcel today at $75-$77 I will be very happy.

My expectations were consolidation of growth this year of ~10% NPBT @ $540M, revised now to that these ambitious bunch of so & so's could reach the $600's (which is 'only' 23% growth)

[alokdhir]

If someone suggests a stock split to them ....It will be very useful to realise its full potential for shareholders ...more retail participation ...better liquidity etc

Hopefully they read this forum ....100 to 1 will be most liked by shareholders

[kiora]

Their biggest Moat is their execution skills ...people skills especially with staff ...so motivated that they do everything like its their own business . Vision to replicate their winning strategy in new countries one after another ...

I see them having $ 10 Billion revenue in 5 years

This year's eps targets will get upgraded soon from 3.75 to 5+ ...imo

So at forward p/e of just 30 ...which is justifiable as they growing more then 20% YOY ...1 year target should be $ 150

I totally agree
Fantastic management in a competitive industry.
It all starts at the top
It is so simple but how come so few companies can do it???
What are management schools teaching these graduates?

So often we see the effects of CRAP management WTH !

[777]

Looking at the voting results at yesterday's AGM it makes you wonder who would vote against Don Braid being re elected.

[Peitro]

Looking at the voting results at yesterday's AGM it makes you wonder who would vote against Don Braid being re elected.

Putin, clearly

[alokdhir]

No signs of FOMO buying today ...no institutions also in play till now

Easy pickings so far ....

[Biscuit]

I totally agree
Fantastic management in a competitive industry.
It all starts at the top
It is so simple but how come so few companies can do it???
What are management schools teaching these graduates?

So often we see the effects of CRAP management WTH !

Management is the difference between a crap company and an ok company. Leadership is the difference between an ok company and a great company. MFT don't rate management, they rate leadership and they are a truly great company.

[Jonette]

An update on my Truckometer;
I thought about one comment on how to interpret better and I think I found a way: Telemetry Locations = https://www.datawrapper.de/_/xiHx1/

2018 was an uneventful year in the trucking business from what I can see, Heavy Traffic was pretty consistent all year with minor seasonal movement. Unfortunately Waka Kotahi data does not publish back further so I cannot guarantee that point, but you can see from my original Truckometer how reliable 2018 was.
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Dugrc/12/

However, making that assumption creates an opportunity to look at each year as a growth year from 2018, and if you take a look at my Truckometer index then you can see that not only was the YTD growth last year very good (resulting in extraordinary profit growth) but it has continued.
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BuKLU/1/

[Raven74]

Thanks Jonette. Very interesting stuff. It would be great if you had some permanent site/link where you published your Truckometer and updated it.... or do you already have such a site and I've missed it.

[Peitro]

Nice work Jonette.

Has anyone heard if there will be a shareholder day this year? I think the next market update either there or a general release will confirm Jonette's forecast growth will see another satisfactorily special year.

[alokdhir]

Nice work Jonette.

Has anyone heard if there will be a shareholder day this year? I think the next market update either there or a general release will confirm Jonette's forecast growth will see another satisfactorily special year.

They have already given 16 weeks update which was more then satisfactory but market still not interested as they keep doubting future growth of MFT which keeps delivering ...eventually market will give up being pessimistic and take it beyond $ 100 ...sooner then later imo ...next 6 months max

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFT/396075/375523.pdf

[Jonette]

Thanks Jonette. Very interesting stuff. It would be great if you had some permanent site/link where you published your Truckometer and updated it.... or do you already have such a site and I've missed it.
I did, but it was for my use while I developed my ideas, I have now moved it to a more public site, with a new Truckometer to GDP comparison - I developed it for use in the Property Investment space, but realised it may have value with MFT so its now available here:

https://jonette.co.nz/listings/market-rules/truckometer.html

[maclir]

I did, but it was for my use while I developed my ideas, I have now moved it to a more public site, with a new Truckometer to GDP comparison - I developed it for use in the Property Investment space, but realised it may have value with MFT so its now available here:

https://jonette.co.nz/listings/market-rules/truckometer.html

Very genrous of you to share your work.

[Raven74]

I did, but it was for my use while I developed my ideas, I have now moved it to a more public site, with a new Truckometer to GDP comparison - I developed it for use in the Property Investment space, but realised it may have value with MFT so its now available here:

https://jonette.co.nz/listings/market-rules/truckometer.html

Wonderful stuff, thanks Jonette.

[Raven74]

I did, but it was for my use while I developed my ideas, I have now moved it to a more public site, with a new Truckometer to GDP comparison - I developed it for use in the Property Investment space, but realised it may have value with MFT so its now available here:

https://jonette.co.nz/listings/market-rules/truckometer.html
I have one comment for you Jonette. This is from personal and anecdotal experience. The import shipping debacles are creating a huge amount of extra trucking unrelated to an increase in actual economic activity. Many ships are loading, and especially unloading at none-preferred ports. Example several container ships have unloaded their Auckland cargo at Northport, and many miss Auckland out and unload their Auckland cargo at Tauranga. This then produces a lot of extra (unnecessary) truck movements. Also the huge inventory build of many businesses has maxed out a lot of warehouses and much more is being stored offsite at 3PL contract warehouses, shuffled around from site to site, etc, again producing extra truck movements.

[Jonette]

I am aware of that, but the stats are a simple comparison although with higher growth. Ie the trends are your friend.

I am picking up port traffic because I especially chose routes that would show it. You can pick out quarters where say the Auckland strike had an impact, but real changes are not that obvious in aggregate. BTW, I developed this as a GDP predictor which comes available months earlier than the RBNZ quarterly results - June will be published on 15th Sept, by which time I will have August data.

Hey thanks for the feedback, the more the better, this stuff gets hard without a critic.

[BlackPeter]

I am aware of that, but the stats are a simple comparison although with higher growth. Ie the trends are your friend.

I am picking up port traffic because I especially chose routes that would show it. You can pick out quarters where say the Auckland strike had an impact, but real changes are not that obvious in aggregate. BTW, I developed this as a GDP predictor which comes available months earlier than the RBNZ quarterly results - June will be published on 15th Sept, by which time I will have August data.

Hey thanks for the feedback, the more the better, this stuff gets hard without a critic.

Certainly interesting - cheers.

Just one more probing question ...

If we look at the current state of our highway system e.g. in the upper part of the South Island, where many trucks have to drive currently a 8 hours detour (instead of the normal 2 hours drive) across the better part of the South Island to get from Picton to Nelson - would this show in your stats as an improvement of our economy? I guess its much more km driven, though not more goods moved, just on a longer route?

I guess this would mean more road closures, slips and floodings would show up as being good for the economy, doesn't it?

[Jonette]

I don't expect so. Take a look at the map and you can see the sites I use, the locations are accurately shown, just zoom in. One most likely covers the Nelson route but the data just counts the trucks going each way at a specific location, not the route they take.

Comments on better sites would be much appreciated, but note that I am limited to Waka Kotahi sites that report regularly. I use my own interpretations of good sites, I have driven all of NZ many times so am familiar with many routes, but some local knowledge could create improvements - esp the upper south and BoP areas where a lot of changes have occurred recently

[mikelee]

Similar trend in the US where shipping get diverted from West to East, hoping to prevent a repeat of last year's mayhem.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_ipmAvf2cE

[winner69]

They were truly amazing numbers Mainfreight put up around how things were going this financial year

Share price today not much higher than it was the day of that announcement .... and it's even lower than what it was when they announced the F22 result in May

And you can't say its outrageously over priced either ----PE under 20

A few months before we hear much more from them .... and share price will probably just hang around current levels

[Rawz]

They were truly amazing numbers Mainfreight put up around how things were going this financial year

Share price today not much higher than it was the day of that announcement .... and it's even lower than what it was when they announced the F22 result in May

And you can't say its outrageously over priced either ----PE under 20

A few months before we hear much more from them .... and share price will probably just hang around current levels

Hasnt been this cheap for years! But could it go lower? Damn this FOPTM

[alokdhir]

Hasnt been this cheap for years! But could it go lower? Damn this FOPTM

All Gurus of stock market know ...its in down markets u make most money . Getting into quality stocks at best prices ....

People were chasing it around $ 99.80 and now no buyers around $ 75 ....smart people will use this opportunity to accumulate ....will it get cheaper ...no one can predict future ...Is it good value at present .....that u can be sure about .

If u follow the crowd ie TA then u will make small money ...if u follow your own wisdom then u can make big money especially quality stocks ...Gold always shines

[kiora]

"Electric truck swaps battery faster than it takes to fill a tank"
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/129812483/electric-truck-swaps-battery-faster-than-it-takes-to-fill-a-tank

[Rawz]

https://www.ft.com/content/bf0076e4-6030-41a9-b36a-64d62f5e695a


FedEx shares chalked up their biggest daily drop on record after the company warned on its outlook and said it would close offices, freeze hiring and park aircraft in response to a decline in package shipping volumes.

The update, from a company considered a bellwether of global economic growth because of the wide range of items it ships, was issued after Wall Street’s closing bell on Thursday and included a warning on its earnings in the quarter and the withdrawal of its guidance for fiscal 2023.

FedEx shares fell 21.4 per cent to close at a 26-month low of $161.02 on Friday, cementing the biggest one-day drop for the stock since listing in 1978.

[alokdhir]

https://www.ft.com/content/bf0076e4-6030-41a9-b36a-64d62f5e695a


FedEx shares chalked up their biggest daily drop on record after the company warned on its outlook and said it would close offices, freeze hiring and park aircraft in response to a decline in package shipping volumes.

The update, from a company considered a bellwether of global economic growth because of the wide range of items it ships, was issued after Wall Street’s closing bell on Thursday and included a warning on its earnings in the quarter and the withdrawal of its guidance for fiscal 2023.

FedEx shares fell 21.4 per cent to close at a 26-month low of $161.02 on Friday, cementing the biggest one-day drop for the stock since listing in 1978.

Fedex is clearly telling markets and FED that slowdown is here possibly a recession as they are the leading indicator unlike many other lagging data market and FED looking at and reacting to badly ....

I just dont understand at present Bond market is right or Fedex is right ...both cant be so one will have to fall in line most probably its the over exuberance of Bond market after surprised by August CPI ....again its overshooting the mark

LT Yields will recede , slowdown is real ....recession will follow in next 6 months it will be known to all ....Fedex knows it now and preparing for it so should we

[Peitro]

Jonette, your recently updated figures with an unseasonal jump are indicating two things.

MFT - The 6 months result looks like it will be satisfactory .
Inflation - The OCR increases have done nothing and more pain is required

[Jonette]

You noticed, I had not posted the update anywhere ����.
Yes I thought the same, probably in the opposite order because I was at an investor meeting a couple of days ago and a comment was made that exchange rates are being driven by OCR differences between countries. I had not realised, but the US OCR Is now 3.25% and NZ OCR is 3%, that means it’s not only safer to deposit funds in the US but you also earn more, no surprise that money is pouring into the US increasing their dollar value. The US FED has warned they may go to 4% next time
The RBNZ will need to raise our rates to at least 4% to slow the flow, that’s 100 points, I’m now expecting that change next Wednesday.
BTW, the real estate market has reduced in some areas like Wellington but in others it’s still at the peak, that too is pressure for a higher rate.

[Peitro]

https://jonette.co.nz/ is in my favourites bar, so I had been checking for an update :) If these figures flow through to MFT, we could well see an interim dividend closing in on $1.

Will be interesting to see how Heavy Traffic vs GDP pans out, breaks certainly not being applied yet.

I'm off to go find Heavy traffic data in the States, I suspect the breaks have a bit more pressure being applied over there at this stage

[Jonette]

I'm off to go find Heavy traffic data in the States, I suspect the breaks have a bit more pressure being applied over there at this stage

let me know if you do. I would like to find a data supply for my AAPL investment

[Jonette]

https://jonette.co.nz/ is in my favourites bar, so I had been checking for an update :)



due to delays with the Tawa and Drury telemetry site updates, the two most important in NZ, I can’t get full data until the end of the following month. Mid month you get a part story, eg this month on about the 15th I could see August was going to be a great month without those two sites, but can’t publish. To improve forecasting, I’ve also had to fill in missing data for sites that get stopped for roadworks using the week before the stoppage as a proxy.

[winner69]

MFT share price still slip sliding away - down to $67 odd

Hung around $65 for a few months at beginning of 2021 - maybe that level will become support again

Long way from $100 .... but profits keep going up

[BlackPeter]

MFT share price still slip sliding away - down to $67 odd

Hung around $65 for a few months at beginning of 2021 - maybe that level will become support again

Long way from $100 .... but profits keep going up

I recon rising oil prices (cheers to Putin and his OPEC henchmen) are in the long run good news for MFT. While it will weaken the economy in the short term ... weaker economy means dropping oil prices, and these always lead to growth in the phase after.

Anyway - worked for me in the last crisis (the Covid dip, when I bought MFT in the mid 30íes ).

I see MFT moving up to the next level in the next one to two years from now ... economic recoveries are always lead by well run transport companies.

[Peitro]

let me know if you do. I would like to find a data supply for my AAPL investment

Beautiful! Thank you for publishing.

[Jonette]

Beautiful! Thank you for publishing.

I found a data series, the US govt publishes it - so I guess that makes it more reliable.

I was surveyed by Waka Kotahi a couple of weeks ago about my use of the traffic data and commented that Drury and Tawa were often late or ignored when roadworks occurred. They were both updated early this month so I already have their data for September and I have a preliminary update. However, have stuffed up my spreadsheet I am using to manage corrections to older data and need some time to fix it before publishing full updates - which also improves correlation to over 90% due to fixing roadwork data.

The data looks big, ie the NZ September quarter for trucking movements looks like yet another growth period.

I have added the USA truckometer I took from their data - here (https://jonette.co.nz/mft/) You may need to update your link for the NZ data too

[alokdhir]

I found a data series, the US govt publishes it - so I guess that makes it more reliable.

I was surveyed by Waka Kotahi a couple of weeks ago about my use of the traffic data and commented that Drury and Tawa were often late or ignored when roadworks occurred. They were both updated early this month so I already have their data for September and I have a preliminary update. However, have stuffed up my spreadsheet I am using to manage corrections to older data and need some time to fix it before publishing full updates - which also improves correlation to over 90% due to fixing roadwork data.

The data looks big, ie the NZ September quarter for trucking movements looks like yet another growth period.

I have added the USA truckometer I took from their data - here (https://jonette.co.nz/mft/) You may need to update your link for the NZ data too

If one has to believe your interpretation of the data ...rather then doing it ourselves ....then in your opinion MFT will still be doing better then before as per the latest data with u ...so no downturn in freight as yet ?

[BlackPeter]

If one has to believe your interpretation of the data ...rather then doing it ourselves ....then in your opinion MFT will still be doing better then before as per the latest data with u ...so no downturn in freight as yet ?

I am sure that Freight volumes will be up both in Q3 and (likely, due to it being the future) Q4 - and this is what any truckometer will show as well.

More interesting would be in my view the question whether margins can keep up; I am sure that the ridiculous high diesel prices as well as increased payrates start to bite the industry.

[alokdhir]

I am sure that Freight volumes will be up both in Q3 and (likely, due to it being the future) Q4 - and this is what any truckometer will show as well.

More interesting would be in my view the question whether margins can keep up; I am sure that the ridiculous high diesel prices as well as increased payrates start to bite the industry.

If the demand is good then I believe MFT will be in a position to pass on Diesel / other additional costs as fuel surcharge or simple CPI adjustments to freight costs

Now will be the test of good management vs average managements ....as passing additional costs is a tricky job ...like a game of poker !!

[iceman]

Shipping costs have dropped rapidly in the last few weeks/months and container availability & shipping become more readily available. This is positive for MFT as it allows us to recoup some of the fast rate increases that could not be passed on to customers rapidly enough last year. Fuel costs have also rapidly decreased in recent weeks.
Slowing World economy is obviously a concern for freighting companies BUT, it also sorts the boys from the men and I think MFT is now a very strong, globally diversified player that can take advantage of economies of scale.
So I'm very confident MFT is chugging along very nicely.

The big thing for us Kiwi holders, is the exchange rate. ATM, looking back 12 months, the NZ$ is down against most of the income generating currencies for MFT.
We get roughly 1/3 of revenue in USD, which is up roughly 10-15% average through the year.
A$ roughly 1/4 of revenues. Up roughly 5-8% average last 12 months.
Euro will be the interesting one and difficult to forecast or guess what is happening with freight there.

But I am confident we will have a very good trading update soon and a good half year report in November. Expecting $1.00 divie :drool::drool:

[whatsup]

Back to Jan 2021 atm !

[iceman]

Back to Jan 2021 atm !

Yield shooting up :-)

[Ggcc]

Back to Jan 2021 atm !
Don't stress the bottom of the market has not been reached yet. It is not just MFT heading down quick. Longterm it will always head up. Just keep adding more shares to your portfolio if you feel these prices are what you like.

[BlackPeter]

Shipping costs have dropped rapidly in the last few weeks/months and container availability & shipping become more readily available. This is positive for MFT as it allows us to recoup some of the fast rate increases that could not be passed on to customers rapidly enough last year. Fuel costs have also rapidly decreased in recent weeks.
Slowing World economy is obviously a concern for freighting companies BUT, it also sorts the boys from the men and I think MFT is now a very strong, globally diversified player that can take advantage of economies of scale.
So I'm very confident MFT is chugging along very nicely.

The big thing for us Kiwi holders, is the exchange rate. ATM, looking back 12 months, the NZ$ is down against most of the income generating currencies for MFT.
We get roughly 1/3 of revenue in USD, which is up roughly 10-15% average through the year.
A$ roughly 1/4 of revenues. Up roughly 5-8% average last 12 months.
Euro will be the interesting one and difficult to forecast or guess what is happening with freight there.

But I am confident we will have a very good trading update soon and a good half year report in November. Expecting $1.00 divie :drool::drool:

I agree, but you need to stick with the lingo.

I do expect a satisfactory trading update :) ;

[Peitro]

Shipping costs have dropped rapidly in the last few weeks/months and container availability & shipping become more readily available. This is positive for MFT as it allows us to recoup some of the fast rate increases that could not be passed on to customers rapidly enough last year. Fuel costs have also rapidly decreased in recent weeks.
Slowing World economy is obviously a concern for freighting companies BUT, it also sorts the boys from the men and I think MFT is now a very strong, globally diversified player that can take advantage of economies of scale.
So I'm very confident MFT is chugging along very nicely.

The big thing for us Kiwi holders, is the exchange rate. ATM, looking back 12 months, the NZ$ is down against most of the income generating currencies for MFT.
We get roughly 1/3 of revenue in USD, which is up roughly 10-15% average through the year.
A$ roughly 1/4 of revenues. Up roughly 5-8% average last 12 months.
Euro will be the interesting one and difficult to forecast or guess what is happening with freight there.

But I am confident we will have a very good trading update soon and a good half year report in November. Expecting $1.00 divie :drool::drool:


Completely spot on in every point, the 1/3 Revenue from USD would have grown with increased capacity in the states... Bring on the November update

[winner69]

should put a rocket under the share price

Updated numbers for first half of year

• Estimated revenue for the 26 weeks has improved. 32.5% to $3.01 billion
• Estimated profit before tax for the 26 weeks has improved 65.8% to $301.7 million

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFT/400953/381463.pdf

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFT/400953/381625.pdf

[Rawz]

Wow amazing! Good stuff MFT

[BlackPeter]

should put a rocket under the share price

Updated numbers for first half of year

• Estimated revenue for the 26 weeks has improved. 32.5% to $3.01 billion
• Estimated profit before tax for the 26 weeks has improved 65.8% to $301.7 million

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFT/400953/381463.pdf

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFT/400953/381625.pdf

Quite satisfactory, isn't it?

[winner69]

Quite satisfactory, isn't it?

If you look at pbt growth last 10 weeks v pbt growth for first 16 weeks of year this announcement is 'less satisfactory' than the previous one

A clued up business reporter might notice that pbt growth has halved since last announcement and come up with a headline 'Mainfright profit growth down 50%'

[Rawz]

I market ordered $3000 and got them at $69.99 while eating an almond croissant

Niice

[BlackPeter]

If you look at pbt growth last 10 weeks v pbt growth for first 16 weeks of year this announcement is 'less satisfactory' than the previous one

A clued up business reporter might notice that pbt growth has halved since last announcement and come up with a headline 'Mainfright profit growth down 50%'

Absolutely, but then ... the last result was "very satisfactory", wasn't it?

[Bjauck]

Wow amazing! Good stuff MFT In rain and shine, MFT do deliver the goods. The SP has a wee bit of catching up to do though.

[winner69]

Yippee ….back over 70 bucks

Probably 80 bucks next week

Go Mainfreight …keep truckin along

[Biscuit]

Yippee ….back over 70 bucks

Probably 80 bucks next week.....

Nah, sp will pop up for a day or two and then the general doom and gloom will slowly sap the life out of it again.

[BlackPeter]

Nah, sp will pop up for a day or two and then the general doom and gloom will slowly sap the life out of it again.

You never know what hype and fear can do to a market, this is true. But just looked at MFT in my spreadsheet:

Forward PE of 18 and earnings forward earnings CAGR (3 years each) is 17.4. This is a PEG (Zulu Principle) of close to 1.

That's how you normally recognise really promising startups, but for a big and profitable company like Mainfreight is this just amazing, isn't it?

[winner69]

You never know what hype and fear can do to a market, this is true. But just looked at MFT in my spreadsheet:

Forward PE of 18 and earnings forward earnings CAGR (3 years each) is 17.4. This is a PEG (Zulu Principle) of close to 1.

That's how you normally recognise really promising startups, but for a big and profitable company like Mainfreight is this just amazing, isn't it?

Not sure if you saying this is good or bad …or cheap / expensive

[Biscuit]

You never know what hype and fear can do to a market, this is true. But just looked at MFT in my spreadsheet:

Forward PE of 18 and earnings forward earnings CAGR (3 years each) is 17.4. This is a PEG (Zulu Principle) of close to 1.

That's how you normally recognise really promising startups, but for a big and profitable company like Mainfreight is this just amazing, isn't it?

Yes, they are an amazing company. One of my favorites over many years and they still have gas left in the tank.

[iceman]

Yes, they are an amazing company. One of my favorites over many years and they still have gas left in the tank.

Absolutely and no surprise they've come out with another oustandingly "satisfactory" result :-) Vey pleased with my little top up at $67 recently. Can't have too many of these.

[BlackPeter]

Not sure if you saying this is good or bad …or cheap / expensive

I am sure you are :p;

[iceman]

Interesting that MFT is starting operations in India, it's 11th country in Asia. Aims to have it up & running by Q3 23
Also increasing NZ warehouse footprint by 37% over the next couple of years, to continue it's outstanding growth trajectory.

[alokdhir]

Interesting that MFT is starting operations in India, it's 11th country in Asia. Aims to have it up & running by Q3 23
Also increasing NZ warehouse footprint by 37% over the next couple of years, to continue it's outstanding growth trajectory.

I think MFT is the most wonderful company of NZ ...keeps all happy ...hard to do but keeps doing again and again .

Current downtrend may be best time to accumulate more ...I did till 66 then got scared ...lol as w69 kept saying 2800 coming on S&P ...:p

[Rawz]

Is MFT New Zealand's greatest company ever?

[Muse]

Is MFT New Zealand's greatest company ever?

think bigger rawz...
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/is-this-the-best-run-firm-in-australasia-20220917-p5bivp

[alokdhir]

What are the estimates for FY23 EPS ? Have they improved from $ 4.02 consensus after todays update ...maybe depends on second half more as thats always bigger ....so all will hold their upgrades but they can easily end up doing $ 4.50 if all goes just normal !!

[winner69]

What are the estimates for FY23 EPS ? Have they improved from $ 4.02 consensus after todays update ...maybe depends on second half more as thats always bigger ....so all will hold their upgrades but they can easily end up doing $ 4.50 if all goes just normal !!

What’s your estimate alokdhir ….your guess be more reliable than consensus.

[BlackPeter]

Is MFT New Zealand's greatest company ever?

How would you measure that ;)

Market capitalisation? - Definitely not (well, not yet ...)
Earnings growth? - Probably, if you pick the right time window;
Quality Leadership? - Possible
Company Culture? - well, they are clearly up with the best.
Understatements in Company reports - Definitely!
Runway? - good question ....

[winner69]

What’s your estimate alokdhir ….your guess be more reliable than consensus.

Updated my model - F23 EPS expected to be $4.89 ,,,stuff all growth in H2
So PE about 14 - wow that's cheap az

Share price should $100 plus on that sort of profit and growth

[BlackPeter]

Updated my model - F23 EPS expected to be $4.29

So PE about 16 - wow that's cheap az

Share price should $100 plus on that sort of profit and growth

FWIW - analyst consensus was $94.67 - and this was prior to todays report. Might well go over $100 after the analysts all updated their spreadsheets.

On the other hand - consensus values (as any forecast) do only have entertainment value, but hey - some numbers are quite entertaining and others I like to entertain.

[alokdhir]

Updated my model - F23 EPS expected to be $4.89 ,,,stuff all growth in H2
So PE about 14 - wow that's cheap az

Share price should $100 plus on that sort of profit and growth

I would have been happy with $ 4.50 eps but u expect $ 4.89 ...thats superb ...agree SP shud be over $ 100 but your call of OCR 6% is keeping all shares subdued ....but MFT time will come in 6-12 months maybe

[winner69]

I would have been happy with $ 4.50 eps but u expect $ 4.89 ...thats superb ...agree SP shud be over $ 100 but your call of OCR 6% is keeping all shares subdued ....but MFT time will come in 6-12 months maybe

if full year is eps 4.50 that means no profit growth in second half

Growth stops .... signals 'peak profits' ..... punters (except Kingfish lol) change their views ......we know what happens then eh

Fine tuned by forecast and now eps of 4.72

Table showing half year npat and profit growth v pcp below. Nice numbers and H222 looks pretty reasonable

[alokdhir]

if full year is eps 4.50 that means no profit growth in second half

Growth stops .... signals 'peak profits' ..... punters (except Kingfish lol) change their views ......we know what happens then eh

Fine tuned by forecast and now eps of 4.72

Table showing half year npat and profit growth v pcp below. Nice numbers and H222 looks pretty reasonable

Great analysis and nicely put across too mate ...After 89% growth if company can still manage 34% again its superb ...maybe FY24 will be just 5-10% if any ...still I think it will maintain a great CAG rate over last 5-7 years time

In nutshell its a great company and it has vast vast market to grow ....they just need to keep replicating same business model country after country and keep growing

Can they become too big to manage their efficiencies for optimal NPAT outcomes ?? All depends upon staff motivation and they are great at making everyone partners in profits of growth ...as all are working for themselves too not just MFT ...Ace strategy

India can be a great market for them in next 3-5 years ....by the time their developed markets had already given them easy initial growth

[Snow Leopard]

Malaysia Warehouse Grand Opening (https://www.mainfreight.com/en-nz/malaysia-warehouse-grand-opening)

https://www.mainfreight.com/getmedia/3c1c360f-bca5-47a9-9111-7e5e049664f0/Warehouse-Grand-Opening.jpg

So, who is going?

[kiora]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fkids.nationalgeographic.com%2Fan imals%2Fmammals%2Ffacts%2Fsnow-leopard&psig=AOvVaw1MXnN6CG0VPX_FWqJdPPT4&ust=1666540674837000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CA8QjRxqFwoTCOjzgfmZ9PoCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAE

[winner69]

FY22 results show 'Air and Ocean' volumes up about 20% but revenues up about 84% and profit up 214%. Same sort if picture for 'Transport'

Obviously the huge increase in revenues is the impact of all the global supply chain issues we've heard about — leading to higher freight rates

I assume costs have increased as well - by not as much as revenues — so higher profits.

Is it the sustainability of the the current high freight rates (like Transport rates per tonne were 25% higher in F22 than F21) that worries investors and the possibility of falling profits

Confession ...never really studied the detail of these companies ....just the big numbers and not the key drivers of how they occur.

[Peitro]

Another satisfactory result. The quiet half of the year has has produced NPBT of $300M, $750M NPBT for the year certainly looks feasible.

MFT are well positioned and have investment plans that will certainly take advantage of the current drop off in market sentiment and increasing their slice of the pie in America and India. Bring on the 10 November detailed update.

[Peitro]

Just picked up a less than niicce little parcel.

[mikelee]

Wow, nice run today. Was going to put this in the bottom of the draw and forget about it after a horrible year, in terms of SP.
I wish the dividend could be a little more generous though, especially in light of the recent bull run in interest rate.

[iceman]

Wow, nice run today. Was going to put this in the bottom of the draw and forget about it after a horrible year, in terms of SP.
I wish the dividend could be a little more generous though, especially in light of the recent bull run in interest rate.

I think we should be happy with the very impressive dividend growth as an additional little bonus to the huge growth of the business Worldwide https://www.nzx.com/instruments/MFT/dividends
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnze/mft/dividends

MFT should stay focused on investing to grow profits.

[Bjauck]

I think we should be happy with the very impressive dividend growth as an additional little bonus to the huge growth of the business Worldwide https://www.nzx.com/instruments/MFT/dividends
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnze/mft/dividends

MFT should stay focused on investing to grow profits. Apart from the shifting sands of the share price based yield, that is impressive dividend growth over the years. Back when I bought them in 2009, the annual dividend was 27c/share. Last year it was $1.39

[Rawz]

If MFT can keep ROE above 20% maybe even lower the div?

[BlackPeter]

If MFT can keep ROE above 20% maybe even lower the div?

I don't really think they need advise on how to set the dividend. One of the best boards, chairs and CEO around in any NZ company I know ... and I never had the impression that they do anything to massage the share price. They only look at the long term interest of the company (and with that their staff and shareholders) and their clients.

I trust they will keep it that way.

[Rawz]

MFT having another good day. Going to be above $80 in no time!

[Peitro]

The impact of Advisor updates and leadership share purchases filtering through, well timed with the wall street bounce...

[winner69]

Yippee ….back over 70 bucks

Probably 80 bucks next week

Go Mainfreight …keep truckin along

Usual good call from Winner (last week)

[winner69]

Breaking News - Shareclarity has updated its MFT valuation

Remains unchanged at $71.81

Hopefully Simplywallstreet has a much higher valuation

[alokdhir]

Breaking News - Shareclarity has updated its MFT valuation

Remains unchanged at $71.81

Hopefully Simplywallstreet has a much higher valuation

Jarden has $ 90 and Forbar has $ 84 ...U ok with these or need Craigs also mate ?

[winner69]

Jarden has $ 90 and Forbar has $ 84 ...U ok with these or need Craigs also mate ?

My guess is as considered as theirs I reckon .... those who think analysts spreadsheets are based on logic and rigorous analytical thinking are dreaming ... that's why there's a science about emotional investing.

So I'll go with $102.50

Cool eh

[alokdhir]

My guess is as considered as theirs I reckon .... those who think analysts spreadsheets are based on logic and rigorous analytical thinking are dreaming ... that's why there's a science about emotional investing.

So I'll go with $102.50

Cool eh

I am happier with your scientific emotional target ...$ 102.50 ...maybe this time it will cross $ 100 barrier

[iceman]

If MFT can keep ROE above 20% maybe even lower the div?

I would like to see them introduce a DRP with a 2.5% discount. I think a large majority of holders would elect to go with it and over time, it would be a huge vote of confidence in management by current holders and further underpin & strengthen the SP.

[Rawz]

That announcement last week. so good, SP smashed through the 50d and 100d moving averages.

Should get Winners 100 bucks in no time.

[Muse]

I would like to see them introduce a DRP with a 2.5% discount. I think a large majority of holders would elect to go with it and over time, it would be a huge vote of confidence in management by current holders and further underpin & strengthen the SP.

yes please

[BlackPeter]

I would like to see them introduce a DRP with a 2.5% discount. I think a large majority of holders would elect to go with it and over time, it would be a huge vote of confidence in management by current holders and further underpin & strengthen the SP.

A DRP is basically a Capital raise, which makes sense if they need money. However - they didn't ask for any, didn't they?

Not sure I remember Mainfreight's last Capital raise? Did they have any since IPO?

If they don't need fresh money - what do you want them to do with it? Share buy back?

[alokdhir]

"

Consensus revenue estimates increase by 11%


The consensus outlook for revenues in 2023 has improved.


2023 revenue forecast increased from NZ$5.54b to NZ$6.16b.
EPS estimate increased from NZ$4.02 to NZ$4.41 per share.
Net income forecast to grow 26% next year vs 8.5% growth forecast for Logistics industry in New Zealand.
Consensus price target up from NZ$94.67 to NZ$97.47.
Share price rose 12% to NZ$76.00 over the past week. "


Revisions upwards all around ....Consensus EPS of $ 4.41 but most likely company will deliver $ 4.85 + ...so good scope for appreciation ahead !!

[alokdhir]

MFT is managing P/E contraction due to market conditions and higher rates by stupendous growth , making it look cheap in current market too .

P/E of 15 for such Quality and Growing company is just a steal .

Doubts about FY 24 and FY 25 growth will be answered by reality of MFT ie they will still manage to surprise the market pleasantly ...main reason being their canvas of logistics and transport is so huge that for quality service and reliability their is always scope for growth even in flat economies

When the good times come back ...which it will eventually then P/E expansion will take care of the SP zooming ...imagine P/E of 30 for eps of $ 5.50 in FY 25 !!!

[iceman]

A DRP is basically a Capital raise, which makes sense if they need money. However - they didn't ask for any, didn't they?

Not sure I remember Mainfreight's last Capital raise? Did they have any since IPO?

If they don't need fresh money - what do you want them to do with it? Share buy back?

As you well know, many companies on the NZX do this. Allows them to have a higher dividend yield with some of the money returned to invest in the business. Makes the dividend hunters show it more interest !!

[mikelee]

Very surprised that there are so little profit taker, given that the SP has risen by about $10 this week.
Got 2 emails from ASB security recently, one was a bond offer from AIA and the other was AIR. Guess both are still very short of $$ and not expecting much cash flow in the next 2 years or so.

[Peitro]

Eagerly awaiting Thursday's price sensitive release.

I like the update to the website Jonette. Hopefully week 39 was a blip!

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/402102

Financial result for the six months ended 30 September 2022 (Unaudited)

Commentary
Mainfreight is pleased to announce our half-year financial results to 30 September 2022. These are in line with our expectations and with the guidance provided to the market during our Investor Day on Friday 21 October 2022. Contributions from all five regions across our global network are positive and continue to provide confidence.
Revenue $3 billion Up $729 million or 32%
Profit before tax $301.71 million Up $120 million or 66%
Net profit $217.02 million Up $ 86 million or 66%

• Adjusted for foreign exchange impact, Group Revenue is up 26.3%, Profit before tax is 57.8%, and Net profit is 57.7%.
• An interim dividend of 85.0 cents per share has been set by the Board of Directors, payable on 16 December 2022; an increase of 54.5%.
This, in our view, is a satisfactory result that has carried our momentum from the previous year’s performance. All three products; Air & Ocean, Transport and Warehousing from the five regions have contributed significantly.
 
We do expect a moderation in our Air & Ocean performance as international Seafreight rates decline, albeit we continue to develop our capability including added value services and growth across a variety of trade lanes around our network.
Investment in our network expansion and intensification continues which will see a further increase in capital expenditure and lease commitments over the next 18 months – such is our confidence in the potential growth opportunities available.
Divisional Performance (figures in local currencies)
New Zealand (NZ$)
Revenue $644.60 million Up $146.15 million or 29%
Profit before tax $ 74.46 million Up $26.39 million or 55%
Consistent trading and growth from all three divisions has contributed to this satisfactory result.

Our Transport network has increased its footprint with two new branches – Hobsonville and Whakatane. Service levels continue to improve as covid restrictions and supply chain congestion decreases.

Warehousing utilisation remains high. Activity levels are improving and the increased capacity in 2023 will bring welcomed relief and further growth expectations.
Air & Ocean growth has continued and while ocean freight rate reductions are evident new customer activity has remained strong.
Satisfactory trading across all three divisions has continued post-September with expectations of this continuing well into December.
 

Australia (AU$)
Revenue AU$697.37 million Up AU$172.33 million or 33%

Profit before tax AU$ 63.22 million Up AU$18.70 million or 42%

Ongoing strong Transport and Air & Ocean performance has contributed to this performance. Warehousing growth has continued but profitability has been constrained through a lack of capacity as over utilised Warehouses contribute to inefficiencies.

New Transport facilities for Adelaide and South Melbourne are nearing completion bringing welcome relief to congested sites in both cities.
New Warehousing facilities will open in Adelaide and completion for our new Moorebank site in Sydney is expected mid-2023. Significant development for more regional Transport and Warehousing sites is underway.

Air & Ocean growth continues, particularly developing long-haul trade routes to and from the USA and Europe.
Trading post-September continues to strengthen, particularly in domestic Transport.
Europe (Euro €)

Revenue €326.99 million Up €66.56 million or 26%

Profit before tax € 23.47 million Up €10.91 million or 87%

Good contributions from all three divisions have assisted in this result.

Satisfactory Transport growth has increased revenues alongside improved margin performance. Improved financial results from our Belgium and France business units has been pleasing. Network intensification in the Netherlands is underway which will include land ownership in the medium term.
Warehousing volumes remain elevated with additional new leased sites under negotiation to provide additional capacity for our customer growth aspirations.
Air & Ocean continues to find growth across our global network, particularly in air and sea freight consolidations. Whilst Asia to Europe has seen reduced ocean freight rates, Europe to the USA (Trans Atlantic) freight rates remain elevated.
Trading post-September remains ahead of the prior year.

The Americas (US$)

Revenue US$562.84 million Up US$121.45 million or 28%

Profit before tax US$ 59.09 million Up US$24.26 million or 70%

Another improving result from our Americas region dominated by our Air & Ocean and CaroTrans divisions. Whilst international ocean freight rates are reducing, we have maintained acceptable growth through a combination of ongoing new business improvement and further LCL freight consolidations - particularly in our wholesale sea freight division of CaroTrans. While airfreight volumes have reduced as sea to air conversions settle back into normal sea freight routines, our development of dedicated airfreight continues.
Domestic LTL freight growth in our Transport division is improving but has yet to reach our expected level of growth. Our status change from domestic freight forwarder to LTL carrier is now complete. This, alongside the development of purpose-built LTL cross docks will further our market opportunities. We expect to acquire land in this current year to assist this development.
Warehousing improvement and growth continues. Like elsewhere in our network, over utilisation of facilities is creating some inefficiency. Additional leased sites are under negotiation to satisfy new customer growth expectations.
Trading post-September has seen Air & Ocean returns moderate from the peaks of the prior period.
Asia (US$)
Revenue US$100.49 million Down US$9.87 million or 9%
Profit before tax US$15.91 million Up US$4.41 million or 38%
Ocean freight rate decline has contributed to an overall revenue reduction for our Asian operations. However, increased “in-country” customer growth and an increase in pre and post shipment services for our customers has seen margins and profitability improve. Ongoing development of our Southeast Asian, Korean and Japanese network has been pleasing.

The opening of our first Indonesian branch in Jakarta was completed during this first half – adding our 10th country to our Asian regional network.
Trading post-September has been acceptable, albeit with profit slightly below the prior year as ocean freight rate levels and volumes decline.
Group Operating Cash Flows

Operating cash flows were $291.4 million, up from $178.4 million in the prior year, reflecting increased profitability. Net debt is $26.3 million, up from $1.1 million at 31 March 2022.

Capital Expenditure

During the half year, net capital expenditure totalled $178.1 million.

• Expenditure for land and buildings, including fit out, $145.6 million;
• Plant and equipment of $24.5 million; and
• Information Technology $8.0 million.

Our expectations for capital expenditure for the full financial year ending 31 March 2023 is $360 million. This includes $314 million on land and buildings across New Zealand, Australia and the Americas.

A further $347 million is estimated for capital expenditure in 2024. It is expected $301 million of this will be allocated to the purchase and build of facilities across the network in New Zealand, Australia, the Americas and Europe as we look to further expand and intensify our network.

This capital expenditure increase in the 2024 year from our previous estimates of $193 million is an increase of a further $154 million. This increase includes further land purchases, racking and warehouse fitout, solar and energy management systems and foreign exchange impact.

Outlook
We are satisfied with this financial performance for the first six months of our financial year.
Trading post half-year, through the five weeks of October and into November, has seen revenue levels increase by 2% over the prior year and profit before tax up 11%.
We continue to be confident of trading conditions for the remainder of the financial year, albeit cognisant of economic headwinds and declining sea freight rates and volumes leading into the New Year. We remain focused on increased growth, with all divisions continuing to see new customer opportunities.
Accordingly, we continue to invest in our network infrastructure for the long term across all regions.

Mainfreight will release its financial results for the full 2023 financial year on 25 May 2023. In light of current interest in trading trends, we will provide a trading update at the beginning of February 2023.

[winner69]

Still on track for FY $480m or >$4.75 eps

[BlackPeter]

That's what we like from Mainfreight: Boring (no surprises) and satisfactory results and outstanding communication in very interesting times :):

[iceman]

Very satisfactory indeed :-)

[Rawz]

Fair value is somewhere around $100 per share? Low 20s forward p/e multiple?
Or am i wrong?

[BlackPeter]

Fair value is somewhere around $100 per share? Low 20s forward p/e multiple?
Or am i wrong?

Depends on the future, which nobody knows. If they keep their current earnings CAGR of nearly 19, than my "fair value" would be slightly above $120.

So, tell me, how much they will grow their earnings over the next 10 years and I tell you what their fair value might be.

Need to add though, that market typically disagrees with my view of fair value ... sometimes it pays more and sometimes it pays less.

Anyway - $100 sounds conservative to me.

[iceman]

Don is optimistic about the future. This from a Herald article today:
“When you see us investing $700m in the next two years in our network infrastructure, then I suppose you can take from that the confidence we have in our business and the opportunities ahead as we grow the business around the world.” “And the reality is we are still relatively small in those offshore markets with a lot more opportunity for market share growth. Our team is focused on making sure they find that growth and provide us with more opportunities to grow further,” he said.

[whatsup]

Back down after Fridays big lift !

[nztx]

Geeze up and down like a norty girl's drawers .. can anyone identify who sneezed for this volatility ? :)

[Rawz]

Geeze up and down like a norty girl's drawers .. can anyone identify who sneezed for this volatility ? :)

There was this article out this morning, wouldnt have through it would move SP? Maybe

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130461041/mainfreight-set-to-post-record-profit-this-year-on-pandemic-boom-then-decline-as-freight-rates-fall

.....Last week, Mainfreight posted a 66% jump in first-half net profit to $217 million and analysts expect the company to report a record profit for the full year to the end of March 2023. But profit is expected to drop in the 2024 financial year, the first decline in nine years.

.... Analysts expect the company to report a record profit this financial year, but are forecasting a decline next year, which would be the first drop in net profit since the 2015 financial year.Craigs Investment Partners expects Mainfreight to report a profit of $429m this year, up from $356m last year. It expects profit to drop to $369m next year.
In a note titled “Clouds on the horizon,” Craigs analyst Wade Gardiner said that while it was early days, he expected a declining trend through the second half of this year, reflecting deteriorating economic growth, and as the impact of lower freight rates bite and the company tracks a strong period in the second half of last year.

..Forsyth Barr analyst Andy Bowley expects profit to hit $436m this financial year and slip to $418m next year, noting the gains being made in the company’s transport and warehousing divisions would be offset by a softer air and ocean performance.
Bowley said profit growth was slowing from “extraordinarily strong levels” over the past two years but the company was now facing declining sea freight rates while economic headwinds would dampen customer demand.

... Craigs has an ‘overweight’ rating on the stock, while Forsyth Barr rates it ‘outperform’.

[Peitro]

Clearly Jonette's analysis is more of a driver of the SP, rather than a stuff article mentioning how MFT is the most expensive stock on the NZX

[Mel]

Clearly Jonette's analysis is more of a driver of the SP, rather than a stuff article mentioning how MFT is the most expensive stock on the NZX
Very poor use of the word "expensive".

[winner69]

NPBT Trend F23

1st 16 weeks of year +86% v pcp
Next 10 weeks of year +43% v pcp
Next 5 weeks of year +11% v pcp
Then last 26 weeks of year -14% v pcp

First 3 numbers as per company announcements / for last 26 weeks taking full year profit to 450m

Is there a trend(+86& / +43% / +11% / -14%) showing up here?

If so market is wondering how long will it continue

[Jonette]

I don’t do a Truckometer forecast yet, cause Waka Kotahi are too slack about publishing raw data. I use it for GDP prediction and MFT view, along with a USA one I also publish to help MFT knowledge.

however, WK do now auto publish BY FAR the biggest Telemetry sites, south Auckland at Drury and north Wellington at Tawa. That gives me ok confidence in October readings - up to 31st published in the month here;

https://jonette.co.nz/mft/truckometer.html

GDP shock of 2.0% compared to economists forecasts at 0.8 (RBNZ) or avg banks at 0.9% suggests they need a meter like this

[Biscuit]

I recently had a package sent down from the North Island on Toll/Courier Post (not my choice). It travelled around a bit, finally moving back and forth between Christchurch and Sheffield for a couple of weeks. Rang them up. In neither company was it possible to talk to anyone other than the telephone operator, who knew nothing. Whenever I've rung Mainfreight, I've always been able to talk to actual people at the depot. They've even given me a contact number for the driver. That's a big difference in customer service, hopefully they never lose that.

[Peitro]

Off topic from MFT, but linked to Jonette's post. The graphs in the link below show how much GDP growth potential we have remaining in the tourism sector.

Tap has barely been turned back on

https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/international-travel-october-2022/

[BlackPeter]

Off topic from MFT, but linked to Jonette's post. The graphs in the link below show how much GDP growth potential we have remaining in the tourism sector.

Tap has barely been turned back on

https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/international-travel-october-2022/

Don't tell Mr. Orr!

Anyway - obviously more travel means as well more Kiwis leaving NZ (and spending some of their money abroad), i.e. I assume its not all going straight to the bottom line.

[Rawz]

MFT trading on a 15 P/E. Wow when is this downtrend going to end?

MFT is a quality gem on the NZX. A proven performer. Superb management that also how heaps of shares.

What a great buy right now! But how low can it go?

[Rawz]

Net margin last year was 6.8%
Long run avg closer to 4.5%

Maybe the business keeps on growing but the bottom line doesnt go anywhere for a couple of years

[alokdhir]

Net margin last year was 6.8%
Long run avg closer to 4.5%

Maybe the business keeps on growing but the bottom line doesnt go anywhere for a couple of years

When revenues keep rising due to Organic growth not just creaming prices due to special circumstances then overall margins also increase due to fixed costs getting diluted over bigger balance sheet .

As MFT is growing its revenues by adding new geographies thus even if freight get fully normalised still they will have higher revenues yoy thus higher margins are here to stay ...maybe not this high but surely over 5% ...imo

MFT is really a golden egg to get into ...maybe it can go lower ...but eventually it will come out stronger then before ...DYOR based on company history and performance and their ethos

[BlackPeter]

When revenues keep rising due to Organic growth not just creaming prices due to special circumstances then overall margins also increase due to fixed costs getting diluted over bigger balance sheet .

As MFT is growing its revenues by adding new geographies thus even if freight get fully normalised still they will have higher revenues yoy thus higher margins are here to stay ...maybe not this high but surely over 5% ...imo

MFT is really a golden egg to get into ...maybe it can go lower ...but eventually it will come out stronger then before ...DYOR based on company history and performance and their ethos

Transport industry traditionally does well coming out of a recession ... and MFT is a particularly well run company in this industry.

We still might have some ups and downs over the next 6 months or so, but yes, after that I do expect them to do well, particularly in the later part of 2023.

[iceman]

Transport industry traditionally does well coming out of a recession ... and MFT is a particularly well run company in this industry.

We still might have some ups and downs over the next 6 months or so, but yes, after that I do expect them to do well, particularly in the later part of 2023.

I am of the same view and am topping up a little at the current level.

[alokdhir]

I am of the same view and am topping up a little at the current level.

Fully agree with OUR sentiment about this great company with exceptional track record

[Peitro]

Nice little run ahead of the trading update, bring on continued momentum.

[alokdhir]

Nice little run ahead of the trading update, bring on continued momentum.

Jim Cramer at CBNC says trucking industry has bottomed thats why JD Hunt went up 5% while market tanked in US ...Good for our dear MFT ...now I got it why its got legs recently ...BTW it trades at 20+ P/E ...that shud make our MFT worth $ 90 if not more !!!

[mshierlaw]

MFT testing trendline & MA 200 for a second time, last time it failed to break out. Doesn't look any stronger this time.

Already seen EBO & FPH break their down trends, MFT late to the party.

14430

[nztx]

IMO too early to determine .. a bounce off most recent bottom

the 2 year trend seems to point at finding a low a brief bounce then coming back exploring
for a new lower bottom ;)

sure enough, sooner or later maybe .. but then there are all range of new counter factors
at play now that weren't present 1-2 years back

the highest peak was circa $94 in early Sep 21 after rapid ascent from lockdown Apr 21 lows of circa $68

The ton mark was never reached, and we're just $5 or so above those Apr 2021 Lows - 21 months later

the MFT model is good & working well, the dividend yield a miniscule %, however maybe the market
is really not prepared fully recognise blue sky territory in current troubled economic climate
just yet or for reasonable period ahead, but I may be wrong :)


Looking at MOV also tends to point to how the market looks upon the sector, even with
ex MFT talent onboard, but still struggling to gain traction on a SP which has also
demonstrated remarkably similar patterning to MFT, but on no current dividend and now seen
floundering, struggling to keep it's head above the $1.00 mark, also well off earlier peaks

[Peitro]

Jim Cramer at CBNC says trucking industry has bottomed thats why JD Hunt went up 5% while market tanked in US ...Good for our dear MFT ...now I got it why its got legs recently ...BTW it trades at 20+ P/E ...that shud make our MFT worth $ 90 if not more !!!

Further growth today on decent volume against the market.

[alokdhir]

Further growth today on decent volume against the market.

That shud inspire our better equivalent MFT ...if one remember MFT did best during the 2008-09 crisis and came out least hurt ...this time wont be different ...its a better and bigger company with more geographies / economies exposure ...Super positive on it over next 5-10 years

[alokdhir]

Whats the buzz ? Is market expecting not too satisfactory update ?? Update shud have come by now ....otherwise we need wait for Tuesday ...:confused:

Maybe market thinks after biggest last PCP it will be difficult to do any further growth in current environment....but they did say 2% revenue growth and 10% NPAT growth in first 5 weeks of second half ....

I still think they will have something positive for us or we will also do something like JB Hunt stock did after a poor update signifying their business has bottomed for this cycle ....fingers crossed

[winner69]

Whats the buzz ? Is market expecting not to satisfactory update ?? Update shud have come by now ....otherwise we need wait for Tuesday ...:confused:

Maybe market thinks after biggest last PCP it will be difficult to do any further growth in current environment....but they did say 2% revenue growth and 10% NPAT growth in first 5 weeks of second have ....

I still think they will have something positive for us or we will also do something like JB Hunt stock did after a poor update signifying their business has bottomed for this cycle ....fingers crossed

Yes, did say early Feb

[alokdhir]

Yes, did say early Feb

Looks like some have seen the trading update sheets floating somewhere in Otahuhu ...lol

What games punters play ...yesterday big down to edge of 30/60 SMA and today almost up 5% ....Maybe next week they have their Broadband working so that they can email to NZX before letting us know ...website still says due 2nd Feb ...

[Peitro]

Trading update
2 February 2023

I take it that no update means no change = continued satisfactory results, or what less special people would call, outstanding growth

[alokdhir]

Trading update
2 February 2023

I take it that no update means no change = continued satisfactory results, or what less special people would call, outstanding growth

No updates mean that it's pending ....does not mean anything else ...mostly due to AKL floods ...but it will come and it will be good as always ...Have faith in your best company mate ...Be patient and u will be rewarded !

[Peitro]

:p A bit tounge in cheek

[alokdhir]

:p A bit tounge in cheek

MFT is most strong buy stock at the moment ....IMHO

[Rawz]

MFT is most strong buy stock at the moment ....IMHO

Not allowed to buy in a downtrend. them be the rules

[alokdhir]

Not allowed to buy in a downtrend. them be the rules

After seeing what happened to FPH u still say this mate ...I thought it wud have made u wiser ...lol ...anyways check the charts of MFT ...as per TA also its super strong buy ....:t_up:

[nztx]

MFT is most strong buy stock at the moment ....IMHO


How about later in June or likely Sep when Govt once again review RUC costs & removal
of discounts etc ? ;)

MOV actually moved a cent .. why is MFT bouncing while MOV has had just a whimper & twitch ?

[iceman]

How about later in June or likely Sep when Govt once again review RUC costs & removal
of discounts etc ? ;)

MOV actually moved a cent .. why is MFT bouncing while MOV has had just a whimper & twitch ?

No comparison. MFT without a doubt one of the best managed freight company worldwide.

[alokdhir]

No comparison. MFT without a doubt one of the best managed freight company worldwide.

Thats why I didnt even try to clarify ...as both are totally different class companies ...

MFT has been lagging the NZX and the world transport sector rally ...time to catch up ...run over $ 80 soon soon ....Trading update got delayed but next week :t_up:

[nztx]

$120 by the end of the month - anyone ? ;)

[iceman]

$120 by the end of the month - anyone ? ;)

End of the year maybe

[Peitro]

$120 by the end of the month - anyone ? ;)

Should be around $85's

$120 is pushing it :D

[alokdhir]

Should be around $85's

$120 is pushing it :D

I am missing the trading update now ...shud have been disclosed by now ...very unprofessional and very unlike MFT ....though not expecting big growth numbers if at all as PCP was too big ...but still anything around 10% positive wud have satisfied me or most ...lol

[Peitro]

I am missing the trading update now ...shud have been disclosed by now ...very unprofessional and very unlike MFT ....though not expecting big growth numbers if at all as PCP was too big ...but still anything around 10% positive wud have satisfied me or most ...lol

Have faith ...Be patient .... :D

[Sideshow Bob]

Have faith ...Be patient .... :D

And in the meantime already up almost 1% this morning......

[Peitro]

Loving the trading depth above the 200 MA

[BlackPeter]

I am missing the trading update now ...shud have been disclosed by now ...very unprofessional and very unlike MFT ....though not expecting big growth numbers if at all as PCP was too big ...but still anything around 10% positive wud have satisfied me or most ...lol

I realise that you are expecting a trading update. Not quite sure though why you think that Mainfreight has to provide one and why you think it would be unprofessional for them if they don't?

Did I miss an announcement or a new legal requirement for Mainfreight to provide a trading update by end of January?

[alokdhir]

I realise that you are expecting a trading update. Not quite sure though why you think that Mainfreight has to provide one and why you think it would be unprofessional for them if they don't?

Did I miss an announcement or a new legal requirement for Mainfreight to provide a trading update by end of January?

Please check on their investor website ...under important dates its mentioned 2nd Feb Trading update ...so its normal to expect when they say so mate ...:p

https://www.mainfreight.com/global/en-nz/investor/investor-centre

[BlackPeter]

Please check on their investor website ...under important dates its mentioned 2nd Feb Trading update ...so its normal to expect when they say so mate ...:p

https://www.mainfreight.com/global/en-nz/investor/investor-centre

Fair enough ... though you need sharp eyes to find this date. Maybe it is just a typo?

Anyway - I am sure you contacted them already and asked them why they didn't publish this update on the day indicated on their website? What did they say?

[alokdhir]

Fair enough ... though you need sharp eyes to find this date. Maybe it is just a typo?

Anyway - I am sure you contacted them already and asked them why they didn't publish this update on the day indicated on their website? What did they say?

They also mentioned in their last HY results that they will update market in early Feb ....

No I am not that impatient to contact them ...I have full faith in company's prospects and I am super long term investor so it doesn't matter they tell me today or after few weeks that they are doing well ...lol ....

[winner69]

They probably still working out how ChatGPT works to craft the announcement.

[alokdhir]

They probably still working out how ChatGPT works to craft the announcement.

Looks like it's not needed ...market already knows they doing well ....

BTW ....ChatGPT is quite PC trained ...will not say anything to offend any !!!

[mikelee]

I just wish the dividend return would be higher, not that I've invested much though. First goal is to break-even, as I paid well over $90 for my lot LOL.

[alokdhir]

"Global transport and logistics company Mainfreight added $2.30 or 3.1 per cent to $76.40 and has risen more than 8 per cent in the last two trading days. Mainfreight is providing a trading update on Thursday in a sector that has become more settled."

As per NZ Herald ....it's coming on Thursday now !!

[Muse]

"Global transport and logistics company Mainfreight added $2.30 or 3.1 per cent to $76.40 and has risen more than 8 per cent in the last two trading days. Mainfreight is providing a trading update on Thursday in a sector that has become more settled."

As per NZ Herald ....it's coming on Thursday now !!

I hope it comes next monday...

:)

[Peitro]

I hope it comes next monday...

:)

:D :D hahha I like it

[BlackPeter]

"Global transport and logistics company Mainfreight added $2.30 or 3.1 per cent to $76.40 and has risen more than 8 per cent in the last two trading days. Mainfreight is providing a trading update on Thursday in a sector that has become more settled."

As per NZ Herald ....it's coming on Thursday now !!

It always was. Mainfreights "crime" was that they forgot to update the upcoming dates on their website when they made the decision to delay the announcement.

I asked them yesterday about this 2nd of Feb date and received this morning the following email from them:



Dear ...

Thank you for your email.

It was decided in early January to give the trading update on 9 February to include more up-to-date numbers, and I apologise that I missed changing the date on our website.

The update will be released on the NZX tomorrow, 9 February 2023 by 9am.

...

[alokdhir]

It always was. Mainfreights "crime" was that they forgot to update the upcoming dates on their website when they made the decision to delay the announcement.

I asked them yesterday about this 2nd of Feb date and received this morning the following email from them:

Thanks BP ...u r more efficient and hard worker then me ...thanks for sharing with us ...tmrw we will know 44 weeks work as they delayed to add a week maybe ...

[Rawz]

That last week must have been huge trading. Otherwise why bother?

[nztx]

still $10 more needed to regain to this time last year's SP :)

[Jonette]

Truckometer still showing signs of growth in December. Unfortunately Waka Kotahi are only updating a few National sites, but with the Auckland southern motorway and Wellington northern routes included my confidence is good.

Supported by Massey site here, I believe they only use these sites and since they pay for the data it’s updated: http://gdplive.co.nz/Dashboard#graph

[alokdhir]

Truckometer still showing signs of growth in December. Unfortunately Waka Kotahi are only updating a few National sites, but with the Auckland southern motorway and Wellington northern routes included my confidence is good.

Supported by Massey site here, I believe they only use these sites and since they pay for the data it’s updated: http://gdplive.co.nz/Dashboard#graph

Now MFT gets 70% of its revenue and profits from offshore as it has significant business in many different parts of the world thus making it immune to vagaries of just one economy ...MFT in itself is a very diversified business thus ...If they expand on their Indian network in future ...which I am sure they will then they will have presence in a developing economy too ...rest all including China are pretty mature economies . Looking at JB Hunt I think MFT shud have better multiples as its growing much faster then that company ...in this downtrend its multiples contracted from 29 to 16 ...

Tomorrows update will enlighten many analysts who were talking of some pull back in profits after two big covid influenced years ...if they can show even 10% growth over PCP then imo they have done a great job and it will be rerated upwards towards $ 85 levels

[Peitro]

Trading update out.

Outstanding growth, I mean 32% growth in PBT is "satisfactory".

[Rawz]

Trading update out.

Outstanding growth, I mean 32% growth in PBT is "satisfactory".
Post the link

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=Rawz;991955]Post the link[/QUOTE

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFT/406411/388032.pdf (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFT/406411/388032.pdf)

[alokdhir]

Not very good going in USA and Asia ...But NZ / AUS / Europe is still satisfactory ....signs of slowdown in USA ...Asia is too small revenue and mostly China lockdowns dependent ....USA is the showing signs of rates working ...good for overall markets LT

PS : Looks like they will struggle to increase NPT in second HY ...maybe second half lower then PCP

Overall EPS estimates $ 4.30 for FY23 ...hopefully I am wrong with my quick estimates !!!

[Rawz]

Looks good!! What a great company

Is revenue growth slowing?

[alokdhir]

Looks good!! What a great company

Is revenue growth slowing?

Yes ...surely ...especially in USA / Asia ...but due to well diversified economies ...they making up in Aus / Nz / Europe

[iceman]

Not very good going in USA and Asia ...But NZ / AUS / Europe is still satisfactory ....signs of slowdown in USA ...Asia is too small revenue and mostly China lockdowns dependent ....USA is the showing signs of rates working ...good for overall markets LT

PS : Looks like they will struggle to increase NPT in second HY ...maybe second half lower then PCP

Overall EPS estimates $ 4.30 for FY23 ...hopefully I am wrong with my quick estimates !!!

"we remain satisfied" sums it up nicely. Australia outstanding and NZ continues to be good. Americas disappointing and possibly indicating a slowing economy there, which may also see slowing of growth here in the next 12 months. Asia a bit disappointing but next year should be when we start seeing growth there with China open again and the Indian operation underway.

A good steady result from a great company.

[Peitro]

Global freight rates have plummeted from last year, having any revenue growth is outstanding. This shows the true growth of the company

[winner69]

Looks like revenue and PBT for last 17 weeks less than same period last year (pcp)

No growth …..must have made a mistake in their calculations

[alokdhir]

Global freight rates have plummeted from last year, having any revenue growth is outstanding. This shows the true growth of the company

This I totally agree to ...110% agreement :t_up:

[alokdhir]

Looks like revenue and PBT for last 17 weeks less than same period last year (pcp)

No growth …..must have made a mistake in their calculations

No mistake ...I also wrote same ...cud not do growth over massive PCP ...but still its very good ...No worries here mate

[winner69]

Announcement not marked PRICE SENSITIVE so no worries about shareprice going down because a Prive Sensitive announcement might have been seen as a Downgrade.

Could see 80 bucks today

[alokdhir]

Announcement not marked PRICE SENSITIVE so no worries about shareprice going down because a Prive Sensitive announcement might have been seen as a Downgrade.

Could see 80 bucks today

Check the day JB Hunt brought similar announcement in USA ...it went down 5% on open then closed 5% up being the only stock positive on all 500 S&P500 that day as it was big down day ....

PS : Also they never mark trading updates as price sensitive ...they always fall under General category as per them ...lol

[Mel]

Trading update out.

Outstanding growth, I mean 32% growth in PBT is "satisfactory".
It also shows that MFT don't hype up results/achievements - this is why we love this company - not looking to make excuses but state the facts and point out opportunities for review/improvement.

[Muse]

It also shows that MFT don't hype up results/achievements - this is why we love this company - not looking to make excuses but state the facts and point out opportunities for review/improvement.

....exactly......

[Rawz]

Market doesnt like it
Heading back below $70?

[Snow Leopard]

Market doesnt like it
Heading back below $70?

I hope so !

[alokdhir]

Market doesnt like it
Heading back below $70?

Just keep watching mate ....U will find out where it goes ...lol

Trading update was not as bad as analysts were anticipating after big recession fears which were brought into the price ...it can do a U turn sooner then latter imo

[iceman]

Just keep watching mate ....U will find out where it goes ...lol

Trading update was not as bad as analysts were anticipating after big recession fears which were brought into the price ...it can do a U turn sooner then latter imo

It's still a bit above midrange for this week !! I wouldn't mind to pick up a few more around $ 67-68 like last few additions. Very good buying I reckon.

[alokdhir]

It's still a bit above midrange for this week !! I wouldn't mind to pick up a few more around $ 67-68 like last few additions. Very good buying I reckon.

I agree with u ...but I have doubts it will reach there with NZX above 12000 ...I still think it needs be over $ 80 " Even " after todays update ...as per the current level of overall market ie NZ50G over 12000

[winner69]

Matt at Kingfish has it sussed - after this update he possibly have even more ‘conviction’ in MFT future:

Mainfreight is more confident than ever on fulfilling its long-term global growth potential

With its share price down -28% for the year, you would be forgiven for thinking that Mainfreight had a terrible year. In fact, over the course of the year, expectations for profit in the current and next year have increased by double-digit percentages. All of their share price fall (and then some) is down to a combination of the valuation becoming cheaper than historical averages, as discussed above, and general concerns about the global macroeconomic outlook.

At its investor day in October, Mainfreight discussed its ongoing strategy of growing and intensifying its network through adding new branches across all products and in all regions. This is simply a continuation of the same successful strategy that has seen it grow its branch network to over 300 branches globally, adding around 70 branches over the past 5 years.

Investment into new facilities is improving quality and efficiency. This assists with customer wins and retention and therefore boosts profitability. The new facilities include purpose-built transport (trucking) cross-docks and larger warehouses, including in Europe and the US. The company has historically been hesitant to invest in those regions because performance has lagged expectations. Now they are seeing signs of real traction emerging in terms of sales, customer wins, and profitability, which makes them confident to invest in those large and lucrative markets.

Mainfreight's management team and board has a fantastic track record of profitable growth. They turn up to work every day very much aligned and hungry to grow the business in spite of a potentially tougher environment. It is encouraging to see multiple executives add to their significant shareholdings recently, underscoring how strongly they believe in the future prospects of the business.

[winner69]

Matt also said

….it was largely because valuations had become elevated, against the backdrop of low interest rates. For instance, Mainfreight was trading at 29 times forward earnings, versus its 10 year average of around 20 times. This is now at around 16 times.

[alokdhir]

Matt at Kingfish has it sussed - after this update he possibly have even more ‘conviction’ in MFT future:

Mainfreight is more confident than ever on fulfilling its long-term global growth potential

With its share price down -28% for the year, you would be forgiven for thinking that Mainfreight had a terrible year. In fact, over the course of the year, expectations for profit in the current and next year have increased by double-digit percentages. All of their share price fall (and then some) is down to a combination of the valuation becoming cheaper than historical averages, as discussed above, and general concerns about the global macroeconomic outlook.

At its investor day in October, Mainfreight discussed its ongoing strategy of growing and intensifying its network through adding new branches across all products and in all regions. This is simply a continuation of the same successful strategy that has seen it grow its branch network to over 300 branches globally, adding around 70 branches over the past 5 years.

Investment into new facilities is improving quality and efficiency. This assists with customer wins and retention and therefore boosts profitability. The new facilities include purpose-built transport (trucking) cross-docks and larger warehouses, including in Europe and the US. The company has historically been hesitant to invest in those regions because performance has lagged expectations. Now they are seeing signs of real traction emerging in terms of sales, customer wins, and profitability, which makes them confident to invest in those large and lucrative markets.

Mainfreight's management team and board has a fantastic track record of profitable growth. They turn up to work every day very much aligned and hungry to grow the business in spite of a potentially tougher environment. It is encouraging to see multiple executives add to their significant shareholdings recently, underscoring how strongly they believe in the future prospects of the business.

MFT is the only stock in the top 5 of KFL and maybe other NZ growth oriented Fisher funds schemes since 2004 ...that means something and speaks volumes about their conviction of the long term story and the ability of MFT to keep growing !!!

https://kingfish.co.nz/investor-centre/market-announcements/

Cud go only as back as 31st Dec 2006 ....they had 19% MFT in KFL

[iceman]

MFT is the only stock in the top 5 of KFL and maybe other NZ growth oriented Fisher funds schemes since 2004 ...that means something and speaks volumes about their conviction of the long term story and the ability of MFT to keep growing !!!

https://kingfish.co.nz/investor-centre/market-announcements/

Cud go only as back as 31st Dec 2006 ....they had 19% MFT in KFL

Good to know. If I ever become frighteningly overweight in MFT, I'll start buying KFL :t_up:

[winner69]

MFT is the only stock in the top 5 of KFL and maybe other NZ growth oriented Fisher funds schemes since 2004 ...that means something and speaks volumes about their conviction of the long term story and the ability of MFT to keep growing !!!

https://kingfish.co.nz/investor-centre/market-announcements/

Cud go only as back as 31st Dec 2006 ....they had 19% MFT in KFL

Há há …in love with Pumpkin Patch back then …..and even Michael Hill

[dobby41]

Announcement not marked PRICE SENSITIVE so no worries about shareprice going down because a Prive Sensitive announcement might have been seen as a Downgrade.

Could see 80 bucks today

Well, that jinxed it didn't it?

[alokdhir]

Há há …in love with Pumpkin Patch back then …..and even Michael Hill

U didnt notice RYM as their Top position ...lol ...its fun to see how NZ markets and companies have evolved ...seeing their many bad experiences with retail oriented stocks ...I have realised that NZ is too small a market to bet on such names for LT ...short term plays maybe

[alokdhir]

Good to know. If I ever become frighteningly overweight in MFT, I'll start buying KFL :t_up:

That U can do today also ...they have 18% MFT ...top position plus its on discount to NAV plus it has the diversity to make u smile everyday ...like today their MFT is down but SUM is up 5.6% ...:p

[nztx]

Good to know. If I ever become frighteningly overweight in MFT, I'll start buying KFL :t_up:


RBD - don't you mean ? :)

[alokdhir]

As per latest Craigs report after this Update ...they have raised the 12 month price target from $ 81.10 to $ 92.30 ...which makes more sense as they are actually doing better then expected by many analysts ....FY 24 will be most interesting if they can arrest the decline in revenue due to lower rates by some organic growth thus higher NPAT ...then sky will be the limit again...lol

Knowing MFT, they love challenges and will come out winners :t_up:

[Jonette]

As Mainfreight commented, USA truckometer chart shows a difficult compare, but actually at a long term peak.

https://www.datawrapper.de/_/tFsjt/

[Sideshow Bob]

Customer operational email today:

Good morning
With the recent impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle continuing to be experienced across many parts of the North Island this communication is to update you on our current network operations:

Northland
Conditions have begun to improve.With access to Whangarei and Kaitaia open, our branches can now receive freight, however deliveries to many parts of the wider Northland region will be delayed due to continuing road closures.
Coromandel Peninsula
Access to the Coromandel Peninsula north of Thames and Whangamata is still limited, however our team are out delivering in Thames, Kopu, Paeroa, and Waihi.

Gisborne Tairawhiti
This region is still impacted by power and communication outages. Accessing Gisborne via SH2 from the south is closed and will be closed for some time. Access from the north via Opotiki was briefly opened last night. Should conditions allow, scheduled convoys between Gisborne and Opotiki will be implemented daily.

Hawke’s Bay
Our Hastings branch is fully operational.The Napier-Taupo Road is still closed but routes to the south are open. Our Napier facility is currently without power. Upon restoration the team will resume operations. Road access is now available between Hastings and Napier.

With a severe thunderstorm watch in place for Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, Taupo, Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay recovery and access in these areas could be further affected.

Cook Strait ferry services have resumed, however delays can still be expected as vehicle backlogs are cleared following cancelations earlier this week.

KiwiRail have confirmed that the North Island Main Trunk Line (Auckland to Wellington), and the Main North Line (Christchurch to Picton) are now fully open.

Whilst our team have felt the ravages of Cyclone Gabrielle they are all safe and well. Our thoughts go out to all those who have been impacted.

Our team continue to appreciate your support and patience as we manage the changing conditions throughout the affected regions.

[alokdhir]

Successful companies dont do different things ...they do things differently ...All companies shud learn from MFT how to communicate and transparency ...:t_up:

[Rawz]

Ignore that…

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-southern-motorway-truck-fire-south-auckland-residents-on-evacuations-fireballs-and-blast-zones/PYQ5C6ZG5ZFUPHJ4COTHQJ744U/

Auckland Southern Motorway truck fire: South Auckland residents on evacuations, fireballs and blast zones

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/trucking-hell-community-cut-off-in-gisborne-after-alternate-road-gives-out/RPPEYR7NTZEY5MRKSOAHUVKW3E/

Trucking hell: Community cut off in Gisborne after alternate road gives out beneath wheels

Darn .. two mentions by Media must explain why the air in the tyres has deflated a few pegs on NZX

[Jaa]

That's a big truck, is it wise to be running such size over iffy roads?