MFT - Mainfreight. Global Freight & Logistics

[nztx]

That's a big truck, is it wise to be running such size over iffy roads?


Not sure I'm correct, but haven't MFT also got a rig stranded at the bottom of the Devil's Elbow
between Napier & Wairoa ? The photos in the news a while back looked like their colours..

[Sideshow Bob]

Further 1%+ drop today, into the $67's.

Starting to look attractive.....

[nztx]

Further 1%+ drop today, into the $67's.

Starting to look attractive.....


down a bit in a week 5.5%

[iceman]

down a bit in a week 5.5%

Topping up time

[BlackPeter]

Topping up time

Inspirational ... and done. Looks like I had some open order for $67.50 out there which some nice person filled today.

I know - could have got it today still a wee bit cheaper, but hey - its just money :) ;

[iceman]

Inspirational ... and done. Looks like I had some open order for $67.50 out there which some nice person filled today.

I know - could have got it today still a wee bit cheaper, but hey - its just money :) ;

Good buy. I got a few at $ 67.65 and mighty happy with that

[alokdhir]

As per the new Stocks digest I got today from ASB Securities ...MFT is trading at cheapest valuations in last 10 years vis a vis its own p/e records and its corresponding p/e to overall market p/e ...to me it seems best value buy of great quality company ...

[alokdhir]

MFT results today ...Results are easy to predict ...slowdown wud have started effecting them as observed from last trading update

So all looking for subdued next year outlook ...

But whats biggest unknown is how market will react to today's news ...I have no idea as many like Craigs though looking for clear slowdown in business with eps showing negative growth in FY24 yet they not looking for any meaningful pull back in SP ...as per them its almost if not fully priced in ....

Short term can be very volatile as Bears and Bulls fight plays out ....may throw some long term opportunities ...

$ 65 will hold ??? I have no idea ...

All expecting pretty negative / subdued results ...anything even small positive surprise can have magnified effect too ...but what that can be ?

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412006


Financial result for the twelve months ended 31 March 2023 (Unaudited)

Commentary

Mainfreight is pleased to confirm our full-year financial results to 31 March 2023; a satisfactory result driven by a strong first half of the year. Trading during our second half fell short of expectations and against a very strong comparison period as international freight congestion unravelled, which included a swift reduction in sea and airfreight rate structures. This has provided much-needed space availability for our customers, but has impacted our revenue growth. Our operations in the USA and Asia are the most affected.

Result Summary:

Revenue $5.68 billion Up $457 million or 8.8%
Profit before tax $587.4 million Up $98 million or 20.0%
Net profit $426.5 million Up $71 million or 20.0%

• Adjusted for foreign exchange impact, Group revenue is up 4.2%, and profit before tax is up 14.9%.
• Second six-month period, whilst behind year prior, our third strongest six months ever. Profit Before Tax NZ$286 million versus NZ$307 million.
• Profit Before Tax growth over the last three years:
2021 NZ$262 million; 2022 NZ$489 million; 2023 NZ$587 million.
• Operating cash flow improved from $504 million to $757 million.
• A final dividend of 87.0 cents per share has been authorised by the Board of Directors, payable on 21 July 2023.

Whist a satisfactory result, the performance in our second half of the year has seen freight volumes deteriorate due to slowing economic conditions, declining inventory activity, and less international supply chain congestion.

Inflationary pressures have also increased our cost to serve. Recovery of these increased costs is underway via freight rate increases across all regions and stronger overhead cost management.

International Freight Volume Analysis – FY23 v FY22

Full year

Total Air freight kilos down 8%
Total Sea freight TEUS down 7%
Custom Clearances down 3%

Whilst short-term freight demand has eased, we expect that normalised trading levels will resume over time. We will continue with our expansion of network and investment in land and buildings in pursuit of long-term growth.

Group Operating Cash Flows

Operating cash flows were $757.2 million, up from $503.8 million in the prior year, reflecting increased profitability, satisfactory cash collection, and working capital benefits because of shipping line rate reductions across the group.

Current debt facilities total $510 million, of which $323 million remain undrawn. Net funds at 31 March 2023, was $122.8 million compared to net debt of $1.1 million last year. Gearing ratios continued to improve, at (7.7%) compared to 0.1% for the prior year.

Net capital expenditure totalled $313.9 million, with expenditure for land and buildings accounting for $163.1 million, warehousing racking and fit-out costs of $70.4 million, plant and equipment of $60.2 million, and information technology of $20.2 million.
Expected capital expenditure through to the end of 2025 will total $676 million, of which property, racking, and fit-out costs will be $556 million. This is allocated between regions as:

NZ $192 million
Australia $176 million
Americas $ 97 million
Europe and Asia $ 91 million

An additional 36 properties are expected to be leased as we increase our Warehousing footprint, increase our domestic freight network, and replace aging facilities. During this current year, our branch network has increased by 26 from 305 to 331 and we have opened in Jakarta, Indonesia, taking the number of countries we are in to 26.

Dividend

The Directors have approved a final dividend of 87.0 cents per share fully imputed at the 28% company tax rate. With the record date on 13 July 2023, payment will be made on 21 July 2023. This brings the full dividend for the year to 172.0 cents per share, an increase of 21.1% over the prior year, and reflects this year’s improved trading results.

Discretionary Bonus

We remain committed to sharing our profits with those who have earned them. In line with the profit achieved, our discretionary profit bonus is $79.9 million; a decrease of 15.2% from $94.2 million for the year prior. This decrease reflects the declining rates of improvement across some of our branch networks, particularly during our second half.

Divisional Performance (figures in local currencies)

New Zealand (NZ$)
Revenue NZ$1.28 billion Up NZ$154.7 million or 13.7%
Profit Before Tax NZ$169.4 million Up NZ$32.9 million or 24.1%

Our New Zealand businesses have provided satisfactory sales and profitability growth during a year of contrasting and, at times, frustrating fortunes. Our first half included the ongoing supply chain congestion and higher volumes. As slowing economic conditions prevailed, so did freight volume across the network. Ongoing severe weather events provided a challenging environment for freight delivery. This included the sub-standard Transport infrastructure, including the Cook Strait ferry connections between the North and South islands.

Despite this, we have continued to intensify our Transport network, opening branches in West of Auckland and in Whakatane. This continues with branches to open in Cambridge, Waikato, and an inland container port operation in Auckland during the year.
We will also open our largest Warehouse for New Zealand (43,000 sqm) in South Auckland to meet the requirements of our ongoing growth in Warehousing Logistics. This will also allow us to exit three short-term overflow warehouses.
We continue to win market share across imports and exports in our Air & Ocean operations despite the slowdown in global shipping and air volumes.

Australia (AU$)

Revenue AU$1.42 billion Up AU$242.2 million or 20.6%
Profit Before Tax AU$136.8 million Up AU$29.3 million or 27.3%

Our Australia team continue to find satisfactory growth and improved profitability. Gaining market share as industry consolidation of the pallet transport segment is providing opportunity. During the year, we completed three new purpose-built sites; Adelaide, South Melbourne and Gold Coast, Queensland. These have increased our capacity for further growth.

New Transport facilities were opened in Mackay, Orange, and Dubbo, increasing delivery capability via our network to 88% Australia wide.

Warehousing operations have further expanded, offering our increasing range of customers alternative sites across all states, excluding the Northern Territories. Unfortunately, profit performance has declined because of higher fixed costs, reduced utilisation, and poor performance/one off costs in our Epping, Melbourne site. It is our expectation that profitability will improve as these new sites become fully utilised.

Air & Ocean revenues and volumes have declined in line with lower demand and less international supply chain congestion. North America now features as our largest trade lane, reducing our exposure to imports from China. Long-haul trade development, particularly with Europe, is a priority for our Australia Air & Ocean business.

The Americas (US$)

Revenue US$959.9 million Down US$129.5 million or 11.9%
Profit Before Tax US$89.25 million Down US$11.6 million or 11.5%

Our poorest performing business, where a lack of customer depth and quickly slowing economic conditions reduced revenue and profitability. These conditions have exposed our weaknesses and lack of maturity in this market. We have a shortage of customers across market verticals that provide regular daily freight volumes.

Our USA business has undergone several changes to better improve our ability to deliver meaningful and long-term growth. This includes a re-organisation of our senior leadership team, including their relocation to Chicago where they will be together in a central location with quicker ease of access to our branch network.

Construction is planned and underway for two new Transport cross-docks in Dallas, Texas and Chicago, Illinois. Land acquisition is under review for a second site in Chicago.

Our status has changed in our Transport business to LTL Motor Carrier from general freight forwarder classification. This will help attract larger LTL freight customers.

A dedicated Air Freight facility has been completed in Los Angeles which includes chiller and cold storage for our global Air Freight perishable business. Air and Sea freight volumes have declined in line with the industry downturn, although trading remains higher than pre-pandemic levels.

CaroTrans has continued to perform satisfactorily, increasing the amount of LCL consolidation from the year prior.
We have consolidated our Warehouses in Dallas and Chicago to provide much needed efficiency and increased utilisation.
Strong sales activities are underway to improve our customer verticals across all three divisions. However, we would expect our recovery to take time.

Europe (Euro €)

Revenue €630.7 million Up €62.8 million or 11.0%
Profit Before Tax €46.9 million Up €15.2 million or 48.0%

This is our strongest financial performance in Europe to date, with good improvement across all three business units.
We now have good momentum outside of the Netherlands, with Belgium improving markedly. The Dutch business is now contributing 63% of European profits, down from 73% the year prior. Our network has also increased, totaling 52 branches in 10 countries.

New branches have opened for Transport in Rotterdam and Tilburg in the Netherlands, Katowice and Poznan in Poland, and Lyon in France. We expect to make our first property investment in the Netherlands, since acquiring the business in 2011. This will provide land for a new cross-dock for our Transport business.

New Warehousing branches are expected for the Netherlands and the UK as well as increasing the size of our Warehouse in Romania.

Air & Ocean development will see a new branch open in Munich to complement the opening of Madrid and Verona this year.
Our exposure to the Air & Ocean market is less than our other regions, therefore the reduction of international shipping and air volumes has had less of an impact on revenue and profitability. Transport volumes and Warehousing activity have slowed albeit less than our other regions.

Asia (US$)

Revenue US$152.8 million Down US$78.2 million or 33.9%
Profit Before Tax US$ 29.1 million Up US$ 0.2 million or 0.9%

A disappointing financial year-end for our Asian operations.
Our reliance on Transpacific freight volume from China to the USA is high and it is this trade that has been heavily impacted by slowing freight demand. Ocean freight rates during the previous year reached extraordinarily high levels overly inflating revenues.
Nevertheless, our margins have continued to improve, as we focus on LCL growth and higher yielding cargo.

We have further expanded our network into Jakarta, Indonesia – our tenth country location in the region. It is our expectation that our first Indian Air & Ocean branch will open by August 2023. Whilst not expecting India to outpace China in manufacturing capability, we do expect India to be an important contributor and significant addition for our global network expansion.

Southeast Asia progress continues at a satisfactory level.
Warehousing has also begun its development with six locations now operational. Whilst still small, we are now attracting Asian import customers into these facilities, via our Air & Ocean network. As with elsewhere in our network, Warehousing compliments our domestic and Air & Ocean products and will be a welcome addition in Asia to offset the reliance on Air & Ocean volume only.
As with our other regions, a strong sales response is in action to counter the global trade reduction.

Outlook
This full year result is satisfactory. It does represent our 13th year of ever-increasing revenue growth and profitability increases – not that we rest on our past achievements.

During this past year we have seen extraordinary levels of freight volume, particularly during the first six months, a reflection of a difficult and over-heated logistics market. We have taken the opportunities that were presented and have grown a bigger and better business, including the continued expansion of our network and infrastructure investment into better and larger facilities.
Macroeconomic conditions are expected to deteriorate further, reducing freight volumes across all our logistics products. Increasing inflation will be a feature effecting our cost to serve. We have been active re-pricing freight rates because of these inflationary pressures, and our sales teams are actively increasing market share.

Our strong customer verticals of Food, Beverage, DIY, Pharma, Perishables and Retail will serve to reduce our exposure to this downturn.

It is a privilege to have supportive customers and our investment in our network, facilities, technology, and people, remain an integral part of our long-term strategy.

Prudent management of margins and overhead costs is key. Our decentralised approach allowing branch leadership to take responsibility for their profit and loss accounts provides the most appropriate approach. Consequently, recruitment has reduced significantly over the past three months across all regions.

We have a disciplined approach to capital investment, with $676 million being invested through until the end of 2025. Providing the right facilities for our immediate and future growth, including property investment in the USA and Europe, where larger long-term growth opportunities present themselves.

We are mindful of the current economic downturn and inflationary environment and therefore, will look for improved returns from the network rather than expansion for the sake of it.

Trading post result has continued to show a weakness in volumes and activity. Whilst management of overhead cost structures and the implementation of freight rate reviews have been successful, it is expected to be a challenging first six months of trading.
We remain confident of our medium to long term growth prospects.

Mainfreight will release its financial results for the first half of the 2024 financial year to the market on 9 November 2023.

[Rawz]

So no surprises I guess..?

MFT one of those stocks people hold for 30 years so not too much interest in the variances from year to year?

Operating cashflows increase, then capital expenditure increase which increases operating cashflows which means more capital expenditure which leads to higher op cashflows and on and on and on until SP is $1,000

[winner69]

Putting the past behind us and looking to the future main points …..’ Trading during our second half fell short of expectations’ and ‘ Trading post result has continued to show a weakness in volumes and activity’

H223 was first half year period for zonks when profits were less than pcp

Sign of the times …sign of what might happen next year or so

[winner69]

Alokdhir me ol’ mate …you very quiet

[alokdhir]

Alokdhir me ol’ mate …you very quiet

I had put my thoughts on this announcement just before the results announcement ....looks like u ignored my post ...lol

Nothing new in result which market didnt know or expect ...me is also part of it ...87 Cents dividend was the only surprise as market was expecting 75 cents

Market reaction will be subdued ....Craigs got it right ...sideways for another few months ...so u can keep playing with HLG / TRA etc little longer to bring your gains to MFT ahead ...lol

[Rawz]

$64 is the long run 200dma so anywhere close to that must be good buying

[alokdhir]

$64 is the long run 200dma so anywhere close to that must be good buying

Agree ...FM maybe knowing better as he is looking to add during this few months of corrective phase

PS : See the long term charts ...then u will see that very few times it dipped below 200DMA for long and significantly ...last 15 years

[Muse]

I'm looking to add but I'm unclear when I might do that....might be in 2 months might be in 12 or 18. keen to see how things develop. might miss out too like I did when FPH hit 17. such is life.

[alokdhir]

I'm looking to add but I'm unclear when I might do that....might be in 2 months might be in 12 or 18. keen to see how things develop. might miss out too like I did when FPH hit 17. such is life.

U shud like the company and then like the price too ...U like the company ...U will add when u like the price and the immediate future too ...Good on u mate ...:t_up:

[Rawz]

Agree ...FM maybe knowing better as he is looking to add during this few months of corrective phase

PS : See the long term charts ...then u will see that very few times it dipped below 200DMA for long and significantly ...last 15 years

having a quick look it seems your chances where;

2003
2008-2010
2020

so 3 chances in the last 2 decades wow. and the bull run post GFC took the SP from $6 to $43 right before the covid dip.

[alokdhir]

having a quick look it seems your chances where;

2003
2008-2010
2020

so 3 chances in the last 2 decades wow. and the bull run post GFC took the SP from $6 to $43 right before the covid dip.

So if people get fourth chance now ...Shud they take it ? Maybe now u will appreciate why I am positive on MFT at present ...

PS : Chance in 2020 was very fleeting ...BP took great advantage and still a very happy holder

[hamish]

Putting the past behind us and looking to the future main points …..’ Trading during our second half fell short of expectations’ and ‘ Trading post result has continued to show a weakness in volumes and activity’

H223 was first half year period for zonks when profits were less than pcp

Sign of the times …sign of what might happen next year or so

There is much to admire re Mainfreights transparency and facts approach regarding their performance and market conditions. Giv s confidence that irrespective of position, theyre not in the game of presenting sugar coated forward view (like many other Co. result announcements). Pragmatic and outline what the impacts are and what they intend to do

[Sideshow Bob]

$64 is the long run 200dma so anywhere close to that must be good buying

Took a decent step towards it today.

[Valuegrowth]

This is one of the great companies in NZ. However their industry can have slow down in the coming year. Shipping and transportation stocks rocketed worldwide thanks to Covid-19.Now they are falling like hot potatoes as their profits are coming down very badly. Similarly, smart traders made huge capital gain from medical glove stocks. They also dropped like hot potatoes .

[Baa_Baa]

This is one of the great companies in NZ. However their industry can have slow down in the coming year. Shipping and transportation stocks rocketed worldwide thanks to Covid-19.Now they are falling like hot potatoes as their profits are coming down very badly. Similarly, smart traders made huge capital gain from medical glove stocks. They also dropped like hot potatoes .

As a value investor (my assumption), I'm surprised that you seem to have any concern for the share price, except for when you are buying. After you've bought, you should have no concern at all about share price, but you seem to. Maybe you're not a value investor?

[Bjauck]

This is one of the great companies in NZ. However their industry can have slow down in the coming year. Shipping and transportation stocks rocketed worldwide thanks to Covid-19.Now they are falling like hot potatoes as their profits are coming down very badly. Similarly, smart traders made huge capital gain from medical glove stocks. They also dropped like hot potatoes .
What is your time horizon? Phew! Covid-19 was the last epidemic. The trend to online shopping and international trade has stopped too?

[winner69]

Putting the past behind us and looking to the future main points …..’ Trading during our second half fell short of expectations’ and ‘ Trading post result has continued to show a weakness in volumes and activity’

H223 was first half year period for zonks when profits were less than pcp

Sign of the times …sign of what might happen next year or so

Looking at numbers it appears as if profit for last 9 weeks of year was down 17% on pcp.

Since then there’s been further ‘weakness’

Didn’t seem to be any guidance for F24 so I have to make my own estimate. Wasn’t too far off whst I came up for F23

I reckon F24 profit will be about $350m say EPS of 35 cents

What price does one pay for these earnings? …… 60 bucks …more or less

[Rawz]

Looking at numbers it appears as if profit for last 16 weeks of year was down 17% on pcp.

Since then there’s been further ‘weakness’

Didn’t seem to be any guidance for F24 so I have to make my own estimate. Wasn’t too far off whst I came up for F23

I reckon F24 profit will be about $350m say EPS of 35 cents

What price does one pay for these earnings? …… 6 bucks …more or less

have you had your coffee this morning?

[Leemsip]

Im with winner. Expecting a pull back in this high quality stock as the recession and less discretionary income move through the economy the next few years.

Love to buy this.... at a much lower price

[Filthy]

Im with winner

winner is usually the most upbeat and positive of us all. i.e. 'it'll be $xx bucks by next year - no worries eh' - agree @Rawz, think he hasn't been caffeinated this morning lol.

[BlackPeter]

Im with winner. Expecting a pull back in this high quality stock as the recession and less discretionary income move through the economy the next few years.

Love to buy this.... at a much lower price

Good luck with that!

For what its worth ... MFT is currently on a (3 yrs) forward PE of 18 (but yes, analysts forecasts are not better than anybody else's) and the EPS forward CAGR is 15% (backward 20%).

I'd call that cheap for a quality stock like that.

But sure - markets can do whatever they like (and they do) - particularly if the coming recession really comes and bites hard (which I don't expect so far, but hey - I am not better in predicting recessions that anybody else is).

What I do know is that quality transport companies like MFT will dip in recessions significantly less than the index, and they will recover faster. I.e. - even if bad comes to worse, I'd say that MFT shareholders will be better positioned than others who just average across the index.

Anyway - each to their own ...

Discl: My largest holding in a well diversified portfolio

[alokdhir]

Good luck with that!

For what its worth ... MFT is currently on a (3 yrs) forward PE of 18 (but yes, analysts forecasts are not better than anybody else's) and the EPS forward CAGR is 15% (backward 20%).

I'd call that cheap for a quality stock like that.

But sure - markets can do whatever they like (and they do) - particularly if the coming recession really comes and bites hard (which I don't expect so far, but hey - I am not better in predicting recessions that anybody else is).

What I do know is that quality transport companies like MFT will dip in recessions significantly less than the index, and they will recover faster. I.e. - even if bad comes to worse, I'd say that MFT shareholders will be better positioned than others who just average across the index.

Anyway - each to their own ...

Discl: My largest holding in a well diversified portfolio

My thoughts too ...thus MFT is my biggest holding too ...maybe not in as diversified portfolio as yours

Rawz did study yesterday of charts and found MFT sp dipping below 200DMA only thrice in last 20 years ...one of that was sharp Covid dip of 2020

So all agree its great buy at current levels or maybe they can wait for test of 200 DMA ...nothing wrong

Even Mark Lister of Craigs fame thinks it outperforms the index in recession and recovers earliest ...he gave example of GFC times

[alokdhir]

Craig's latest
Mainfreight – Rough Road Ahead. The semi-annual pilgrimage to MFT's Head Office at Railway Lane in Otahuhu for its result briefing took a detour yesterday to MFT's impressive new Warehousing facility at Favona Road (pic of Don & Tim below), a GMT development. The result itself was no surprise with FY23 PBT of $587m broadly in line with market and all credit to MFT for absorbing c$10m in one-off costs in their Australian and American operations without feeling the need to "normalise" and take the costs below the line. As Wade Gardiner notes in a detailed overnight – MFT had already reported 43 weeks through to the end of January, so the result was all about trading in the last 9 weeks and the outlook for 1H24 (Charts 1,2 below). The result was softer at the top line across all 3 MFT divisions (Transport, Air & Ocean, Warehousing) relative to Wade's expectations and slightly weaker at the bottom-line bar the Transport contribution. From a geographic perspective America was the weaker performer reflecting a less mature operation than is now consolidating its leadership team in Chicago.
The Title to Wade's note ('Rough Road Ahead') signals the weaker outlook ahead of a potential trading update from MFT at its AGM on 27 July. MFT note deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, reducing freight volumes and higher inflation as the obvious headwinds with trading in the first 6 weeks seeing "weakness in volumes and activity" which is consistent with commentary from international peers of late.
The challenge for MFT in the current half (1H24) is not just the lapping of elevated Air & Ocean freight rates but also an extremely strong Transport performance that Wade partly attributes to a COVID bounce ... for these reasons Wade has MFT EPS declining 25% in 1H24 on PcP.
Despite the negative short-term earnings momentum Wade retains the Overweight recommendation on MFT with a revised TP of $86.65 (+1.7%) – the long-term story (and value) remains very much intact for MFT with the shares trading on an undemanding 20x PE and a 2.5% yield (40% pay out) supported by a fortress balance sheet (MFT is in a net cash position). There may be some share price weakness leading into the interim result (November) but with cyclicals back in vogue as interest rates peak globally bargain hunters may be disappointed

Going below 200 DMA possibility ahead but not base case ...as per them next 6 months best time to get into MFT if one looking for entry !

[winner69]

The last few weeks of F23 profit down 17% on pcp and now this guru Wade has H124 profit down 24% on pcp

That’s a steep slide in profits

Seems time to take the oath again that MFT is great and renew that belief

And if Craig’s have a target of $86.65 things must be all hunky dory

[alokdhir]

They talk about longer term story intact ....that story is based on 20 years of performance and corporate governance standards ...Some people do value such stuff

He also talks about "Undemanding multiples " for such companies at current SP

But surely yes ...its giving entry opportunity ie SP will be depressed for some time thus not a momentum play currently which many Gurus like

Recession is almost upon us ...MFT gets effected first ...but others will fall too ...especially retail ...

Must be more careful with high flyers at present as they will have the biggest fall when recession works thru all sectors of economy ...imo ie Retail high flyers ...currently over their long term averages

[winner69]

At least the journos will have any easy time next year …they have only need to resurrect their from their stories from 18 months ago

Mainfreight edges close to becoming NZX's only $100 share

Mainfreight poised to break $100 per share on local stock exchange

Mainfreight closes in on $100 per share
Etc etc

[winner69]

After reading what that guy Wade said I’ve reduced my F24 profit forecast to $320m (yesterday I sad $350m)

That’s an eps of $3.20 …..so $60 or less good Re entry point I reckon

[alokdhir]

At least the journos will have any easy time next year …they have only need to resurrect their from their stories from 18 months ago

Mainfreight edges close to becoming NZX's only $100 share

Mainfreight poised to break $100 per share on local stock exchange

Mainfreight closes in on $100 per share
Etc etc

LOL ! If we holders are lucky then towards the end of 2024 ...as FY 25 forecast eps is again over $ 4 ...so can easily do some PER expansion and go towards magic $ 100 ...I am very sure W69 will be on the bus at just the perfect time ...

[alokdhir]

After reading what that guy Wade said I’ve reduced my F24 profit forecast to $320m (yesterday I sad $350m)

That’s an eps of $3.20 …..so $60 or less good Re entry point I reckon

Nothing wrong in doing some wishful thinking ...very possible too ...but how many will believe in that story ...may depend upon actual recession depth also

Me surely expecting some time below 200 DMA ...every bad recession it tends to go below ...so why not this time ...$ 60 is not too far away from current 200DMA

[winner69]

LOL ! If we holders are lucky then towards the end of 2024 ...as FY 25 forecast eps is again over $ 4 ...so can easily do some PER expansion and go towards magic $ 100 ...I am very sure W69 will be on the bus at just the perfect time ...

EPS over $4 and PE of 25 is $100 ……very undemanding on both counts

Think even BP sums would support this outlook …so no hype needed

[winner69]

Nothing wrong in doing some wishful thinking ...very possible too ...but how many will believe in that story ...may depend upon actual recession depth also

Me surely expecting some time below 200 DMA ...every bad recession it tends to go below ...so why not this time ...$ 60 is not too far away from current 200DMA


As I read that the heavy rain stopped and the sky lightened up so that’s a good signal that things will turn out as ‘planned’ …60 bucks to 100 bucks here we come

Speedy Az wants to go for a walk now

[Rawz]

Sometimes great stocks can get even cheaper than one thinks is possible. I.e. when Buffett bought apple for low teens P/E and double digit fcf yield. Now it’s nearly 30 p/e.

Never say never but $50 to $100 could happen

[nztx]

LOL ! If we holders are lucky then towards the end of 2024 ...as FY 25 forecast eps is again over $ 4 ...so can easily do some PER expansion and go towards magic $ 100 ...I am very sure W69 will be on the bus at just the perfect time ...


Hey come on .. it's recessionary times with global instability ... might be 2026 & 2027 :)

[BlackPeter]

EPS over $4 and PE of 25 is $100 ……very undemanding on both counts

Think even BP sums would support this outlook …so no hype needed

For what its worth ... my magic spreadsheet shows currently what I would see as "fair value" of MFT around $106.

We only need to get the market to see it the same way - and neutralise all the negative hype (from recession fear) holding it back - and the job is done :) ;

[kiora]

Investing in infrastructure for the future. Long term....... 100 years?
USA & India particular
People not staff, trust each other, have to get agreement all around the board, consistency.
Succession: Leadership in every team.
Lazy balance sheet?
Bruce ....... don't let egos get in the way

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/lack-of-ordering-mainfreights-freak-fortunes-yet-to-find-a-floor/47KIXWHPDFDZXFH3M46LI62N4M/

[Jonette]

My Truckometer is still struggling with Waka Kotahi deciding to update their telemetry site central tool, and it is no longer compatible with many sites.

They are coming back online but with lots of missing data, but at least I am able to use 4 national sites with continuous reporting.

The truckometer is showing up to May 2023 and shows more trucks on the road in May than all but 2 months, March 2023 and March 2022.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BuKLU/3/

the USA one is not looking rosy at all

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tFsjt/7/

[BlackPeter]

My Truckometer is still struggling with Waka Kotahi deciding to update their telemetry site central tool, and it is no longer compatible with many sites.

They are coming back online but with lots of missing data, but at least I am able to use 4 national sites with continuous reporting.

The truckometer is showing up to May 2023 and shows more trucks on the road in May than all but 2 months, March 2023 and March 2022.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BuKLU/3/

the USA one is not looking rosy at all

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tFsjt/7/

Never worry about your truckometer ... the ANZ one is sort of ok-ish (well, flat, which is good given we move into winter).

Market seems to be optimistic - MFT share passed this week the golden cross - lighting up my NZ portfolio (the European shares are already some time in the green zone :):

But back to MFT: Technical indicators looking good (golden cross) ...

Fundamentals looking good as well (with a forward PE of 19 and a forward EPS CAGR of 14 - hey, this is a PEG of 1.34 - not too bad for such a large organisation.

Macroeconomic picture with more and more analysts talking about the real estate bottom reached and immigration rising looks good as well. More people need more stuff. Lots to do for the good trucks from Mainfreight.

I like it when the indicators are aligned and pointing upwards ...

[winner69]

BP ..last time there was a golden cross it was good entry ….share price doubled by looks of it

On to a winner this time I reckon ….. going to be a good punt

[BlackPeter]

BP ..last time there was a golden cross it was good entry ….share price doubled by looks of it

On to a winner this time I reckon ….. going to be a good punt

Not sure I'd hope for another doubling ... but I certainly expect that MFT will do well at the backend of the current "recession" (whenever this will be).

My current "fair value" for MFT would be slightly above $100, but hey - one never knows what the markets make out of it.

[winner69]

Not sure I'd hope for another doubling ... but I certainly expect that MFT will do well at the backend of the current "recession" (whenever this will be).

My current "fair value" for MFT would be slightly above $100, but hey - one never knows what the markets make out of it.

Looks like we’ve had a descending triangle pattern for year or so ……crude drawing below done on mobile

Great thing price didn’t drop below the horizontal line …like it did on that STU chart ….so it seems the worst is over …the ta book says that now become strong support …..but price likely to improve …a new uptrend …to 100 bucks.eh

All looking good for MFT from here

[alokdhir]

Looks like we’ve had a descending triangle pattern for year or so ……crude drawing below done on mobile

Great thing price didn’t drop below the horizontal line …like it did on that STU chart ….so it seems the worst is over …the ta book says that now become strong support …..but price likely to improve …a new uptrend …to 100 bucks.eh

All looking good for MFT from here

Thanks for your endorsement ...hopefully its sincere and not sarcastic one ...lol ...

U have superb skills ...can do graphs on mobile too ...wonderful and very versatile :t_up:

[winner69]

Thanks for your endorsement ...hopefully its sincere and not sarcastic one ...lol ...

U have superb skills ...can do graphs on mobile too ...wonderful and very versatile :t_up:

Was hoping for $60 or less but given up on that

Forgot to put the up arrow from current price to highlight its all up from here …..maybe arrow wouldn’t be as steep as I’d hope but $100 on the cards sometime in the future.

[winner69]

One broker target is $111.89 ……he’s my man

Not that much higher than consensus

[Sideshow Bob]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFT/413696/397203.pdf

Annual report is out

[alokdhir]

"Revenue at $7billion–likely less due to economic recessionary effects."

FY24 rough outlook ....aim is $ 7 Billions ....may get close to that ....

Long term map is pretty impressive and their track record of meeting future objectives is very credible :t_up:

[Rawz]

Don Braid. "We have the capabilities, energy, and passion to keep growing this wonderful company of ours. Thank you for joining us on this exciting ride."

So beautiful and simple.

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mainfreight-forecasts-confronting-years-ahead-for-the-wider-economy/WTHM6GDMXNDQDFK2KC7OUAWWZM/

Talks down expectations to maybe finally outperform revised lower expectations ....but he is comparing future expectations with last two years stupendous growth ...that almost all know is difficult to match ...maybe 10-15% will be expected and over delivered eventually .

But this is leading to bears having a go at SP today :cool:

[kiora]

"Don Braid – Managing Director, Mainfreight | craigsip.com"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXFInr3yvZ0

[iceman]

Don Braid. "We have the capabilities, energy, and passion to keep growing this wonderful company of ours. Thank you for joining us on this exciting ride."

So beautiful and simple.

Also "beautiful and simple" to look at their history over the last 10 or so years. Most recent history is nothing short of spectacular and yes some of that was abnormal due to COVID issues.
BUT, in FY21 we had revenue of $3.54B which for FY23 has risen to $ 5.67B. Yes we say due to COVID. But it isn't collapsing now that the COVID issues with freighting have largely gone. No, MFT is forecast to continue growing revenue, reaching $ 6.78B for FY26
NPAT forecast to grow from this years $ 426.5M to $ 513m in FY26
EPS growth forecast 7.9%, 5.7% & 5.6% next 3 years.

I won't go into what that would do to free cashflow and dividends as we can all guess. But I am expecting dividends in FY26 to eclipse the SP I bought my first MFT shares at, only about 14 years ago and the $4 invested back then are worth $ 71 today.

So I've been adding a few over the last 3 weeks to build up my retirement dividend portfolio which I expect to be drawing on in 8-10 years time. I know MFT is never talked about or looked at as a dividend stock, but for a long term investor they don't come much better than this

Discl: My biggest NZX holding

[alokdhir]

Also "beautiful and simple" to look at their history over the last 10 or so years. Most recent history is nothing short of spectacular and yes some of that was abnormal due to COVID issues.
BUT, in FY21 we had revenue of $3.54B which for FY23 has risen to $ 5.67B. Yes we say due to COVID. But it isn't collapsing now that the COVID issues with freighting have largely gone. No, MFT is forecast to continue growing revenue, reaching $ 6.78B for FY26
NPAT forecast to grow from this years $ 426.5M to $ 513m in FY26
EPS growth forecast 7.9%, 5.7% & 5.6% next 3 years.

I won't go into what that would do to free cashflow and dividends as we can all guess. But I am expecting dividends in FY26 to eclipse the SP I bought my first MFT shares at, only about 14 years ago and the $4 invested back then are worth $ 71 today.

So I've been adding a few over the last 3 weeks to build up my retirement dividend portfolio which I expect to be drawing on in 8-10 years time. I know MFT is never talked about or looked at as a dividend stock, but for a long term investor they don't come much better than this

Discl: My biggest NZX holding

I also have similar experience buying into MFT in 2010 and have seen company doing very well ...more so recently as their business model gains traction in more and more countries . Company's future prospects are mainly based on two fundamentals ...business model and mode of execution ...they excel in both ...also on top of that they are the most transparent and small investor friendly company in the world ...my opinion only and I know very little about many other companies .

I think market as well as analysts are underestimating their immediate prospects ....thus there is big possibility of upside surprises ahead in next few qtrs ...otherwise they will do just fine ...Cant go much wrong just holding them for next few decades ...they have great vision of continuous growth ahead ...transporting / logistics is a necessity of world ...can only do better with technology cant be replaced by it .

Many like to have dividend stocks put on DRP to make them into growth option as they dont need income ...then why not try the real compounder of NZX ...MFT !!

[Snow Leopard]

.... I know MFT is never talked about or looked at as a dividend stock, but for a long term investor they don't come much better than this....

Many, many years ago, when we were all much younger and my posts were worth reading, I did a comparision of MFT and a popular dividend stock.

I took as the start point a day when they both traded at the same price which was something under $2 and the comparison covered a number of years (at least five, but probably more) since.
[ The vagueness is due to the fact I can not actually find the original post but it will be here somewhere ].

Anyway the upshot of that post was that over the timeframe MFT share price had grown more than the other and that the cumulative dividends for MFT were slightly greater than for this mystery other.

As your post reminded me of this and the popular dividend stock is still around and the timeframe is now nearly 20 years since the point of price equivalence I just had a quick look and:

MFT share price is over 10 times greater than the other;
MFT yearly dividend is over 5 times greater than for the other.

The popular dividend stock shall remain nameless to save it embarrassment.

[winner69]

Hey Paper Tiger …was that other stock HLG?

Was going to say TEL/SPK but that mightn’t embarrass anybody

[Muse]

Love MFT and never sold any. Plan to buy more but patiently waiting to see how trading evolves as the normalisation in ocean and air freight flows through to FY24 results. Think it could be more significant than many expect. Keeping my powder dry until that day. Tot company and thank goodness its on the NZX not somewhere else.

[kiora]

Comparisons graphed 1995-2023
Doesn't include dividends ?
Allow it time to load fully
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/chart?p=%5EGSPC#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6Im1vbnRoIiwicGVyaW 9kaWNpdHkiOjEsImNhbmRsZVdpZHRoIjoyLjk0MTcxNzc5MTQx MTA0MywiZmxpcHBlZCI6ZmFsc2UsInZvbHVtZVVuZGVybGF5Ij p0cnVlLCJhZGoiOnRydWUsImNyb3NzaGFpciI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hh cnRUeXBlIjoibGluZSIsImV4dGVuZGVkIjpmYWxzZSwibWFya2 V0U2Vzc2lvbnMiOnt9LCJhZ2dyZWdhdGlvblR5cGUiOiJvaGxj IiwiY2hhcnRTY2FsZSI6InBlcmNlbnQiLCJwYW5lbHMiOnsiY2 hhcnQiOnsicGVyY2VudCI6MSwiZGlzcGxheSI6Il5HU1BDIiwi Y2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJpbmRleCI6MCwieUF4aXMiOn sibmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicG9zaXRpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ5YXhp c0xIUyI6W10sInlheGlzUkhTIjpbImNoYXJ0Iiwi4oCMdm9sIH VuZHLigIwiXX19LCJsaW5lV2lkdGgiOjIsInN0cmlwZWRCYWNr Z3JvdW5kIjp0cnVlLCJldmVudHMiOnRydWUsImNvbG9yIjoiIz AwODFmMiIsInN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdWQiOnRydWUsInJhbmdl Ijp7InBlcmlvZGljaXR5Ijp7ImludGVydmFsIjoibW9udGgiLC JwZXJpb2QiOjF9LCJkdExlZnQiOiIxOTk1LTA4LTMxVDEyOjAw OjAwLjAwMFoiLCJkdFJpZ2h0IjoiMjAyMi0wOS0zMFQxMTowMD owMC4wMDBaIiwicGFkZGluZyI6MH0sImV2ZW50TWFwIjp7ImNv cnBvcmF0ZSI6W10sInNpZ0RldiI6e319LCJjdXN0b21SYW5nZS I6eyJzdGFydCI6ODA5ODcwNDAwMDAwLCJlbmQiOjE2NjE5NDcy MDAwMDB9LCJzeW1ib2xzIjpbeyJzeW1ib2wiOiJeR1NQQyIsIn N5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1ib2wiOiJeR1NQQyIsInF1b3Rl VHlwZSI6IklOREVYIiwiZXhjaGFuZ2VUaW1lWm9uZSI6IkFtZX JpY2EvTmV3X1lvcmsifSwicGVyaW9kaWNpdHkiOjEsImludGVy dmFsIjoibW9udGgifSx7InN5bWJvbCI6IklGVC5OWiIsInN5bW JvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1ib2wiOiJJRlQuTloifSwicGVyaW9k aWNpdHkiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoibW9udGgiLCJpZCI6IklGVC 5OWiIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY29sb3IiOiIjNzJkM2ZmIiwi d2lkdGgiOjQsImlzQ29tcGFyaXNvbiI6dHJ1ZSwic2hhcmVZQX hpcyI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJzeW1ib2xP YmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiSUZULk5aIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2 hhcnQiLCJmaWxsR2FwcyI6ZmFsc2UsImFjdGlvbiI6ImFkZC1z ZXJpZXMiLCJzeW1ib2wiOiJJRlQuTloiLCJnYXBEaXNwbGF5U3 R5bGUiOiJ0cmFuc3BhcmVudCIsIm5hbWUiOiJJRlQuTloiLCJv dmVyQ2hhcnQiOnRydWUsInVzZUNoYXJ0TGVnZW5kIjp0cnVlLC JoZWlnaHRQZXJjZW50YWdlIjowLjcsIm9wYWNpdHkiOjEsImhp Z2hsaWdodGFibGUiOnRydWUsInR5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwic3R5bG UiOiJzdHhfbGluZV9jaGFydCIsImhpZ2hsaWdodCI6ZmFsc2V9 fSx7InN5bWJvbCI6IkJSSy1CIiwic3ltYm9sT2JqZWN0Ijp7In N5bWJvbCI6IkJSSy1CIn0sInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJpbnRl cnZhbCI6Im1vbnRoIiwiaWQiOiJCUkstQiIsInBhcmFtZXRlcn MiOnsiY29sb3IiOiIjZmY4MGM1Iiwid2lkdGgiOjIsImlzQ29t cGFyaXNvbiI6dHJ1ZSwic2hhcmVZQXhpcyI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hhcn ROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9s IjoiQlJLLUIifSwicGFuZWwiOiJjaGFydCIsImZpbGxHYXBzIj pmYWxzZSwiYWN0aW9uIjoiYWRkLXNlcmllcyIsInN5bWJvbCI6 IkJSSy1CIiwiZ2FwRGlzcGxheVN0eWxlIjoidHJhbnNwYXJlbn QiLCJuYW1lIjoiQlJLLUIiLCJvdmVyQ2hhcnQiOnRydWUsInVz ZUNoYXJ0TGVnZW5kIjp0cnVlLCJoZWlnaHRQZXJjZW50YWdlIj owLjcsIm9wYWNpdHkiOjEsImhpZ2hsaWdodGFibGUiOnRydWUs InR5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwic3R5bGUiOiJzdHhfbGluZV9jaGFydC IsImhpZ2hsaWdodCI6ZmFsc2V9fSx7InN5bWJvbCI6Ik1GVC5O WiIsInN5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1ib2wiOiJNRlQuTloifS wicGVyaW9kaWNpdHkiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoibW9udGgiLCJp ZCI6Ik1GVC5OWiIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY29sb3IiOiIjZT U2MzJhIiwid2lkdGgiOjIsImlzQ29tcGFyaXNvbiI6dHJ1ZSwi c2hhcmVZQXhpcyI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLC JzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiTUZULk5aIn0sInBh bmVsIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJmaWxsR2FwcyI6ZmFsc2UsImFjdGlvbi I6ImFkZC1zZXJpZXMiLCJzeW1ib2wiOiJNRlQuTloiLCJnYXBE aXNwbGF5U3R5bGUiOiJ0cmFuc3BhcmVudCIsIm5hbWUiOiJNRl QuTloiLCJvdmVyQ2hhcnQiOnRydWUsInVzZUNoYXJ0TGVnZW5k Ijp0cnVlLCJoZWlnaHRQZXJjZW50YWdlIjowLjcsIm9wYWNpdH kiOjEsImhpZ2hsaWdodGFibGUiOnRydWUsInR5cGUiOiJsaW5l Iiwic3R5bGUiOiJzdHhfbGluZV9jaGFydCIsImhpZ2hsaWdodC I6ZmFsc2V9fSx7InN5bWJvbCI6IkVCTy5OWiIsInN5bWJvbE9i amVjdCI6eyJzeW1ib2wiOiJFQk8uTloifSwicGVyaW9kaWNpdH kiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoibW9udGgiLCJpZCI6IkVCTy5OWiIs InBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY29sb3IiOiIjZmYzMzNhIiwid2lkdG giOjIsImlzQ29tcGFyaXNvbiI6dHJ1ZSwic2hhcmVZQXhpcyI6 dHJ1ZSwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3 QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiRUJPLk5aIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhcnQi LCJmaWxsR2FwcyI6ZmFsc2UsImFjdGlvbiI6ImFkZC1zZXJpZX MiLCJzeW1ib2wiOiJFQk8uTloiLCJnYXBEaXNwbGF5U3R5bGUi OiJ0cmFuc3BhcmVudCIsIm5hbWUiOiJFQk8uTloiLCJvdmVyQ2 hhcnQiOnRydWUsInVzZUNoYXJ0TGVnZW5kIjp0cnVlLCJoZWln aHRQZXJjZW50YWdlIjowLjcsIm9wYWNpdHkiOjEsImhpZ2hsaW dodGFibGUiOnRydWUsInR5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwic3R5bGUiOiJz dHhfbGluZV9jaGFydCIsImhpZ2hsaWdodCI6ZmFsc2V9fSx7In N5bWJvbCI6IkZQSC5OWiIsInN5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1i b2wiOiJGUEguTloifSwicGVyaW9kaWNpdHkiOjEsImludGVydm FsIjoibW9udGgiLCJpZCI6IkZQSC5OWiIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMi OnsiY29sb3IiOiIjZmZkYjQ4Iiwid2lkdGgiOjIsImlzQ29tcG FyaXNvbiI6dHJ1ZSwic2hhcmVZQXhpcyI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hhcnRO YW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIj oiRlBILk5aIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJmaWxsR2FwcyI6 ZmFsc2UsImFjdGlvbiI6ImFkZC1zZXJpZXMiLCJzeW1ib2wiOi JGUEguTloiLCJnYXBEaXNwbGF5U3R5bGUiOiJ0cmFuc3BhcmVu dCIsIm5hbWUiOiJGUEguTloiLCJvdmVyQ2hhcnQiOnRydWUsIn VzZUNoYXJ0TGVnZW5kIjp0cnVlLCJoZWlnaHRQZXJjZW50YWdl IjowLjcsIm9wYWNpdHkiOjEsImhpZ2hsaWdodGFibGUiOnRydW UsInR5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwic3R5bGUiOiJzdHhfbGluZV9jaGFy dCJ9fV0sInN0dWRpZXMiOnsi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwiOnsidH lwZSI6InZvbCB1bmRyIiwiaW5wdXRzIjp7ImlkIjoi4oCMdm9s IHVuZHLigIwiLCJkaXNwbGF5Ijoi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwifS wib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJVcCBWb2x1bWUiOiIjMDBiMDYxIiwiRG93 biBWb2x1bWUiOiIjZmYzMzNhIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhcnQiLC JwYXJhbWV0ZXJzIjp7IndpZHRoRmFjdG9yIjowLjQ1LCJjaGFy dE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsInBhbmVsTmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0In19fX 0-

[Charlie]

Thanks Kiora. Nice chart. One of my 10% stocks. I see the lows are getting higher, and it deserves a jump up. I just love the booklets they send out. Pretty honest about the next 6 months, but its a great read, and its nice they put photos of the workers with their names. A nice "family" touch. Great to work for ,I hear. Since they opened a depot near me, there are heaps of big blue trucks on the road. Nice to be part of.

[winner69]

Hope Mainfreight doesn’t fall over now Carol is retiring after 37 years

An unsung hero I reckon

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFT/414671/398432.pdf

[maclir]

Thanks Kiora. Nice chart. One of my 10% stocks. I see the lows are getting higher, and it deserves a jump up. I just love the booklets they send out. Pretty honest about the next 6 months, but its a great read, and its nice they put photos of the workers with their names. A nice "family" touch. Great to work for ,I hear. Since they opened a depot near me, there are heaps of big blue trucks on the road. Nice to be part of.

Love that "booklet" too.

https://www.mainfreight.com/en-nz/mainfreight-team-review-july-2023

I can't help thinking that on a different bourse the share price would be much higher.

[alokdhir]

On 27th July AGM MFT will reveal its 16 weeks numbers ....if they are as bad as market expecting and MFT is making us believe then nothing much will happen BUT if they are not as bad as being expected then something can happen ...though I am not expecting any good news when container rates are falling like 9 pins ...But with MFT one can always hope for miracles ...from their new organic growth engines ....new branches ....new countries ...new customers ...better utilisations of customers and what not they can do to shore up revenues

Also with recession or slowdown being so shallow ....original business wud not have gone down that much too but falling Air / Ocean rates will pinch

[Muse]

43% fall in PBT for June quarter

[alokdhir]

43% fall in PBT for June quarter

Brutal but its best qtr vs worst qtr ...still below expectations ...shud rattle SP in the short term ...maybe u will get your chance :p

[Onemootpoint]

Already dropped to below $70 after a short trading halt.

[Fortunecookie]

Probably explains why my Amazon parcel arrived a few days earlier than expected.

It's a solid company. Just market conditions.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415379

Speeches and preso.

[Sideshow Bob]

Probably explains why my Amazon parcel arrived a few days earlier than expected.

It's a solid company. Just market conditions.

Imagine how other transport companies are faring......

[winner69]

Brutal but its best qtr vs worst qtr ...still below expectations ...shud rattle SP in the short term ...maybe u will get your chance :p

Not that good eh alokdhir

Profit margin down from 10.0% to 7.0% ….ouch

Margin back to good ol days …..the bonus boom years over

As the slide take away says

“We have plenty to do”

[Fortunecookie]

Imagine how other transport companies are faring......

Probably across the board and plenty of other industries.

[Valuegrowth]

Results are as I expected.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/...freight-index/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1250636/global-container-freight-index/)

Monthly container freight rate index worldwide 2019-2023

Published by
Martin Placek (https://www.statista.com/aboutus/our-research-commitment/2764/martin-placek),
Jul 11, 2023

Container freight rates oscillated dramatically between January 2019 and June 2023. The year 2021 saw an especially steep increase in global freight rates, reaching a record price of nearly 10,400 U.S. dollars in September 2021.

In June 2023, the global freight rate index stood at almost 1,500 U.S. dollars."

https://mekseaconnection.com/the-tun...1%20year%20ago (https://mekseaconnection.com/the-tuna-industry-is-feverish-because-of-ocean-freight-rates/#:~:text=Currently%2C%20businesses%20specializing% 20in%20canned,compared%20to%201%20year%20ago).

“According to the Harper Shipping Index, the global container price for a 20ft container as of January 7, 2022, is 3,817 points. In the first week of January 2021, the index was around 1,000 points, which means that shipping prices for these boxes have increased by 280%.

https://www.xeneta.com/news/container-rates-alert-long-term-ocean-freight-rates-fall-again-with-almost-50-drop-in-key-pricing-benchmark-across-last-three-months

June 29, 2023 -- Oslo, Norway -- The beleaguered carrier industry took another major hit in June, with the latest data from Xeneta’s Shipping Index (XSI®) showing a decline of 9.4% in global long-term shipping rates. Following on the heels of a 27.5% collapse in May, and a 10.3% fall in April, contracted rates have now shed 47.2% of their value in the last three months alone, and 51.7% over the course of 2023.

[alokdhir]

Not that good eh alokdhir

Profit margin down from 10.0% to 7.0% ….ouch

Margin back to good ol days …..the bonus boom years over

As the slide take away says

“We have plenty to do”

Agree not that good ...but its just a qtr ...give them time to react and give economies time to recover

Maybe the SP will play out like JB Hunts ...when they reported their worst qtr the stock had already bottomed ....

Your $ 3.25 EPS can be on cards for whole year if this not improve ahead ....then also not much downside ...imho ...but anything possible !!!

[Muse]

Brutal but its best qtr vs worst qtr ...still below expectations ...shud rattle SP in the short term ...maybe u will get your chance :p

aye it's always tricky and easy to go astray looking at YoY % changes when you cycle peak or trough periods. takes a bit of effort to untangle the underlying change in momentum.

They do tell it like it is and business has earnt great respect for that. ANZ the powerhouse of the group and holding up better than the rest. Reckon AU warehousing will come under strain throughout this year based on some very poor forward order data for australian retailers - will be interesting how it plays out. USA seems to have turned before ANZ so could swing back up quicker while ANZ still in a lull, potentially. Expect some ongoing revisions to consensus estimates (FY25 looking rose tinted). but as you rightly say for highly liquid stocks like this the mkt is forward looking and not to expect 1:1 movements in earnings and SP. Will be fun to watch.

Disc...holder, & wouldn't mind picking up some more if the price is right.

[alokdhir]

aye it's always tricky and easy to go astray looking at YoY % changes when you cycle peak or trough periods. takes a bit of effort to untangle the underlying change in momentum.

They do tell it like it is and business has earnt great respect for that. ANZ the powerhouse of the group and holding up better than the rest. Reckon AU warehousing will come under strain throughout this year based on some very poor forward order data for australian retailers - will be interesting how it plays out. USA seems to have turned before ANZ so could swing back up quicker while ANZ still in a lull, potentially. Expect some ongoing revisions to consensus estimates (FY25 looking rose tinted). but as you rightly say for highly liquid stocks like this the mkt is forward looking and not to expect 1:1 movements in earnings and SP. Will be fun to watch.

Disc...holder, & wouldn't mind picking up some more if the price is right.

After seeing the numbers more closely ...Transport / Warehousing PBT down even on some increase in revenues for warehousing and small decrease for transport ....I get the impression this qtr they effected inflation related price adjustments ...thus this big PBT fall will get arrested ahead . Overall year 20-25% decrease to $3.25 -$ 3.50 eps is very much on cards ...this will lead to what SP ...no idea

[Rawz]

My guess is lowest it will go is $65. Small chance of that happening as well

[winner69]

On 27th July AGM MFT will reveal its 16 weeks numbers ..……

See they only produced quarter numbers or 13 weeks

Suppose doing the 16 weeks thing would have shown things worse …like pbt down 50% plus

Always a reason for changing the way one presents things

[Gerald]

Applying 2014-2019 eps cagr rate of 9% to 2019-2024 would give a normalized theoretical NPAT of $212m for FY24 :scared: Luckily it's a new era and that's not happening, right?

[Leemsip]

3% - 4% yield... with some downside risk as the economy comes off....
Not for me

[Rawz]

Go to yahoo finance bring up the MFT chart, put it on max period and the 200day moving average a tad over $65. Easy peasy lemon squeezy. That's all you need to do with this proven performer.

Save your analysis hours for 2CC, ERD, IKE, BRW type stocks :t_up:

[Leemsip]

Go to yahoo finance bring up the MFT chart, put it on max period and the 200day moving average a tad over $65. Easy peasy lemon squeezy. That's all you need to do with this proven performer.

Save your analysis hours for 2CC, ERD, IKE, BRW type stocks :t_up:

Ha. Probably a good call.. Im annoyed I didnt get on the 2CC bus....

[Snow Leopard]

...and here am I with a fistful of dollars waiting for $50.

But you guys reckon I would need to buy for a few dollars more?

I guess that is the good, the bad & the ugly of stock markets.

[Sideshow Bob]

I did note that for the director voting, Bryan Mogridge had close to 20% against re-election.

I would have thought that's quite alot for a director thats been there for 20 years and the company has been quite successful in that time.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415398

[winner69]

...and here am I with a fistful of dollars waiting for $50.

But you guys reckon I would need to buy for a few dollars more?

I guess that is the good, the bad & the ugly of stock markets.

When realisation eventually hits home that this year profit only going to be about $260m then even $50 is not cheap.

But market loves Mainfreight so won’t let it get down that far ….will they? After all nearly $100 not that long ago eh.

You wait for your $50 mate ….I’ll take a punt at $55 …but if it got to $55 the chart would look terrible and signalling sub $50 so I’d probably hold off for a while.

The good, the bad, and the ugly of the stock market

[winner69]

Go to yahoo finance bring up the MFT chart, put it on max period and the 200day moving average a tad over $65. Easy peasy lemon squeezy. That's all you need to do with this proven performer.

Save your analysis hours for 2CC, ERD, IKE, BRW type stocks :t_up:

But 200MA lines can still go down can’t they?

[Rawz]

But 200MA lines can still go down can’t they?
Seems not for MFT. Maybe slight dip or flat in GFC 2008 period

When it was up in the 90s it was way above the 200ma. That would have been a great time to sell

[Entrep]

Go to yahoo finance bring up the MFT chart, put it on max period and the 200day moving average a tad over $65. Easy peasy lemon squeezy. That's all you need to do with this proven performer.

Save your analysis hours for 2CC, ERD, IKE, BRW type stocks :t_up:

Agree, I already had that level marked before the 200MA.

That said, it has tested it several times now... will it break now? $48 would be my next alert then.

14690

[winner69]

I see Marketscreener has FY24 profit forecast At $280m - down from the $350m they had prior to last weeks shocker of announcement. Remember last year profit was $426m so expecting/forecasting a 35% in profit this year.

Analysts then doing the old revert back to normal growth trick for F25 anf F26 with 16% and 17% growth respectively.

F24 EPS forecast is $2.79 so at $68.00 trading on PE of 24 …..some will say still cheap as and some will say still not cheap.

[sb9]

May test under $60 in the medium term..

[Valuegrowth]

Falling freight prices,Inflation and Low volume led to poor results. There is a mismatch between demand and supply right now in this sector.

https://www.fwf.com/supply-and-demand/


I see Marketscreener has FY24 profit forecast At $280m - down from the $350m they had prior to last weeks shocker of announcement. Remember last year profit was $426m so expecting/forecasting a 35% in profit this year.

Analysts then doing the old revert back to normal growth trick for F25 anf F26 with 16% and 17% growth respectively.

F24 EPS forecast is $2.79 so at $68.00 trading on PE of 24 …..some will say still cheap as and some will say still not cheap.

[winner69]

MFT top buy by Direct Broking clients last week …..previous week near bottom of list

Jumping in when things get cheap

Those DB clients know when things are a bargain …astute lot they are

Top is the one where BUY value traded in that stock exceeded the SELL value traded in that stock by the largest degree,

[cyclist]

Top is the one where BUY value traded in that stock exceeded the SELL value traded in that stock by the largest degree,

I was puzzling over that the other day. Across the whole market, buy and sell value must be the same. Re-reading their blurb, it seems it is specific to Jarden clients. i.e Jarden clients are net buyers at the moment.

Or at least that is how I interpret it, rightly or wrongly.

[winner69]

I was puzzling over that the other day. Across the whole market, buy and sell value must be the same. Re-reading their blurb, it seems it is specific to Jarden clients. i.e Jarden clients are net buyers at the moment.

Or at least that is how I interpret it, rightly or wrongly.

Correct ……means collectively clients of other brokers were net sellers last week

Just as well Jarden/DB clients are generally the more astute / successful punters out there.

Good to see the confidence in MFT in spite of a shocking downgrade

PS - RYM was 2nd on list

[alokdhir]

Correct ……means collectively clients of other brokers were net sellers last week

Just as well Jarden/DB clients are generally the more astute / successful punters out there.

Good to see the confidence in MFT in spite of a shocking downgrade

PS - RYM was 2nd on list

What are u suggesting mate ? Is MFT a good buy already in your mind or still some way to go down for it to get your money too ??

SB9 seems right that below $ 60 possible in run up to Nov results ...shud bottom in next 3 months ...where ...me got no idea ...but your thoughts of what shud be expected bottom will be welcome ...may do some top up there ...otherwise still a very happy holder forever :cool:

[winner69]

What are u suggesting mate ? Is MFT a good buy already in your mind or still some way to go down for it to get your money too ??

SB9 seems right that below $ 60 possible in run up to Nov results ...shud bottom in next 3 months ...where ...me got no idea ...but your thoughts of what shud be expected bottom will be welcome ...may do some top up there ...otherwise still a very happy holder forever :cool:

As I told Snowy yesterday $55 could be about right …he’s waiting for $50 but I told him he possibly under estimates the love/hype punters have for MFT

But if next update is even worse maybe $45 becomes a target

[alokdhir]

As I told Snowy yesterday $55 could be about right …he’s waiting for $50 but I told him he possibly under estimates the love/hype punters have for MFT

But if next update is even worse maybe $45 becomes a target

Why not ? I still remember how the downside targets at our forum from Gurus for FPH almost reached $ 9 before it bottomed at $ 18 ...just double of lowest target talked at our forum ...in that case $ 45 is still very respectable ...lol

Anything below $ 60 will be nice opportunity ....

[winner69]

Why not ? I still remember how the downside targets at our forum from Gurus for FPH almost reached $ 9 before it bottomed at $ 18 ...just double of lowest target talked at our forum ...in that case $ 45 is still very respectable ...lol

Anything below $ 60 will be nice opportunity ....

Throwing those numbers around sort of says FPH and MFT still have too much ‘love’ factored in to share price ….in other words over priced (significantly).

Wonder what the price will get down when this collapse/crash talked about on another thread happens.

[Rawz]

what sort of forward P/E multiple is this trading on now?

[winner69]

what sort of forward P/E multiple is this trading on now?

Consensus forecast profit for FY24 is EPS of 2.79 so on forward PE of 24

More analyst downgrades to come I reckon so maybe in reality PE close to 30 …….and PEG greater than 2

[Rawz]

Consensus forecast profit for FY24 is EPS of 2.79 so on forward PE of 24

More analyst downgrades to come I reckon so maybe in reality PE close to 30 …….and PEG greater than 2

Bit pricey then. But who knows where the SP goes. I reckon every man and his dog is waiting in the wings with some cash wanting to buy MFT.

[winner69]

Bit pricey then. But who knows where the SP goes. I reckon every man and his dog is waiting in the wings with some cash wanting to buy MFT.

For sure mate ….the love affair still going strong

[percy]

Big opportunities for MFT in the USA.?
After $700 Million U.S. Bailout, Trucking Firm Is Shutting Down. Yellow, which received a pandemic loan, is winding down operations ahead of an expected bankruptcy filing. The closure of the company would mean the loss of about 30,000 jobs.

[Mel]

Don Braid remains optimistic about the future opportunities, having purchased 10k of shares on the market:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415523

[alokdhir]

Throwing those numbers around sort of says FPH and MFT still have too much ‘love’ factored in to share price ….in other words over priced (significantly).

Wonder what the price will get down when this collapse/crash talked about on another thread happens.

Anything can be talked mate ...but like they say " Respect is earned and not demanded " ...these stocks have earned the respect of the market over long periods ...they are not 2CC types up 100% down 50% ...lol

Also not all have short memories or vision ...One bad qtr or even an year will not tarnish the reputation and respect of MFT ...now maybe the time when its present value p/e will expand to accomodate future brightness which market knows will come

U were not this negative when EBO lost big chunk of its revenue forever ...but u have bigger fears in your mind about MFT when its readjusting to current realities of logistics business and inflation .

I again highlight here that only Air&Ocean part has bigger readjustments happening ...other two ie Transport and Warehousing will be ok after inflation adjustments effected through out ...revenues are still better then expected ...but not profits as they are under price rises pressures ...which can be recouped if company can pass thru higher costs ...IF they can ...hopefully they can if they have good equation with their customers

[iceman]

Anything can be talked mate ...but like they say " Respect is earned and not demanded " ...these stocks have earned the respect of the market over long periods ...they are not 2CC types up 100% down 50% ...lol

Also not all have short memories or vision ...One bad qtr or even an year will not tarnish the reputation and respect of MFT ...now maybe the time when its present value p/e will expand to accomodate future brightness which market knows will come

U were not this negative when EBO lost big chunk of its revenue forever ...but u have bigger fears in your mind about MFT when its readjusting to current realities of logistics business and inflation .

I again highlight here that only Air&Ocean part has bigger readjustments happening ...other two ie Transport and Warehousing will be ok after inflation adjustments effected through out ...revenues are still better then expected ...but not profits as they are under price rises pressures ...which can be recouped if company can pass thru higher costs ...IF they can ...hopefully they can if they have good equation with their customers

Well said and I agree

[Rawz]

SP quite solid aye. Where are all the sellers at taking it to below $60?

[Snow Leopard]

SP quite solid aye. Where are all the sellers at taking it to below $60?

Patience my friend, patience :cool:

[Muse]

From the NBR

Port's of Auckland freight volumes 'collapse' in recent months
Volumes at the import-focused port are down by as much as 30%, its chief executive says.
https://www.nbr.co.nz/business/ports-of-auckland-volumes-collapse-in-recent-months/

Won't post article due to copyright but summary of reasons:
* CEO hearing from retailers they have excess stock levels
* Retailers unwinding from a just in case to a just in time stocking level
* CEO spoken to number of retailers who have told their buying teams to just stop buying
* other bits & bobs.

Relevant to MFT's ANZ transport & warehousing ops. For last years ASM MFT provided results for the first 16 weeks of the new year - this result they only provided for 13. Can't help but wonder how the yoy % change in PBT would have looked if they released the data for the same period as last year.

[winner69]

Probably a sign of overall tougher economic times but MFT might be less busy. From ft.com

Maersk forecasts long and deep contraction in global trade


AP Møller-Maersk has warned that a contraction in global trade will prove longer and deeper than the container shipping giant had feared, as companies cut their inventories in the face of recession risks in Europe and the US.

[Rawz]

SP quite solid aye. Where are all the sellers at taking it to below $60?


Patience my friend, patience :cool:

SP slowly tracking down..

[Bjauck]

SP slowly tracking down..
The NZX50 index has gone down a bit more than the MFT price in the last month…

[maclir]

Some resistance today, but is it in the words of the Borg, futile?

[Rawz]

slowly very slowly grinding lower.. it made a new 52 week low the other day

[Leemsip]

slowly very slowly grinding lower.. it made a new 52 week low the other day

Wen $50 bucka?

[Rawz]

SP is trading below the yahoo finance max chart length 200dma. Only done that a handful of times in its history

Worst i can see is back in late 2008 - early 2009 (GFC) the 200day ma was $5.70 and the SP fell 42% below that to $3.30

disc. i dont really know what im talking about with TA

[Bjauck]

slowly very slowly grinding lower.. it made a new 52 week low the other day NZX50c down 4.5% since your last post stating MFT was “tracking down”; MFT is down 4.8%. NZX50c (the capital index) made a new low since 21/10/22 the other day.

[Rawz]

NZX50c down 4.5% since your last post stating MFT was “tracking down”; MFT is down 4.8%. NZX50c (the capital index) made a new low since 21/10/22 the other day.

whats going on? Is MFT dragging down the index?

[Bjauck]

whats going on? Is MFT dragging down the index? LOL Not just the NZX50c - Aus All ords down 3.8% in that period too, as well as the Aussie dollar dropping about 1.5% against the Kiwi! MFT must be the cause.

[enzed staffy]

maybe with the assistance of EBO...also developing stone like attributes

[Bjauck]

maybe with the assistance of EBO...also developing stone like attributes And perhaps half the other index constituents.

MFT up about 50% since pre-Covid 1/1/2020. NZX50c Index is down about 14%. So it depends on your investment time horizon.

[winner69]

Jeez 3% swing in share price so far today …low 62.40 to 64.20 now

[winner69]

SP quite solid aye. Where are all the sellers at taking it to below $60?

Still drifting down. …..50 something soon

As snowie said ..patience my friend

[Rawz]

Still drifting down. …..50 something soon

As snowie said ..patience my friend

Wil never break $60

[Rawz]

Was listening to this podcast while sitting in Auckland traffic this morning.

The guest was talking about buying winners (AKA MFT) and HOLDING them and letting them compound.

He said his eureka moment was when he was told if you buy two different companies, and one goes up 20% pa for 10 years and one goes down 20% pa for 10 years your total return would still be a very respectable 17% pa.

The message was it is okay to make mistakes as long as you hold your winners and let them compound.

I dont hold MFT but when I buy in on this dip I intend to hold for 30 years.

[Leemsip]

you going to eat those words RAWZ. Im pretty confident its going to break $50 in this down cycle.

Yeah I too would love to buy massive compounders and hold them (on the IFT thread Kiora is the man). Tend to buy cheap undervalued stuff which will go up a bit, but not the multibaggers. Too cheap to buy the good stuff I guess.

[winner69]

Wil never break $60

Only held on by a cent or two earlier today …close shave

Suppose you buying all that’s offered at 6001 lol

[Jaa]

Was listening to this podcast while sitting in Auckland traffic this morning.

The guest was talking about buying winners (AKA MFT) and HOLDING them and letting them compound.

He said his eureka moment was when he was told if you buy two different companies, and one goes up 20% pa for 10 years and one goes down 20% pa for 10 years your total return would still be a very respectable 17% pa.

The message was it is okay to make mistakes as long as you hold your winners and let them compound.

I dont hold MFT but when I buy in on this dip I intend to hold for 30 years.

Interesting. 4-5 years ago MFT was between $25 and $40. Using $30, compounded by 15% for 5 years is $60.34.

As we know though, share markets normally over correct.

[Muse]

Reckon 1H is going to be ugly and will be a catalyst for another round of broker downgrades. Just have to look at container and airfreight prices to get a feel for how far freight prices have fallen and given the forwarding component of MFT operates more or less on a cost plus basis that leads to a big drop in GP. ANZ has a big warehousing business and retailers have cut volumes by about 10% and much more price sensitive so that'll be under pressure to. Mainfreight expanded a lot during the downturn and probably has a lot of immature operations that are subject to operational leverage so the increased cost base relative to revenue could slow the recovery currently assumed and priced into the company. Don't get me wrong I really love the company and appreciate the way they operate with long term focus but I reckon there is still some pain to come. It's on my radar to buy once I feel like its gotten closer to (or better, below) its fair market value.

[Rawz]

Reckon 1H is going to be ugly and will be a catalyst for another round of broker downgrades. Just have to look at container and airfreight prices to get a feel for how far freight prices have fallen and given the forwarding component of MFT operates more or less on a cost plus basis that leads to a big drop in GP. ANZ has a big warehousing business and retailers have cut volumes by about 10% and much more price sensitive so that'll be under pressure to. Mainfreight expanded a lot during the downturn and probably has a lot of immature operations that are subject to operational leverage so the increased cost base relative to revenue could slow the recovery currently assumed and priced into the company. Don't get me wrong I really love the company and appreciate the way they operate with long term focus but I reckon there is still some pain to come. It's on my radar to buy once I feel like it’s gotten closer to (or better, below) its fair market value.

Do you have a target price for now or waiting for half year?

[Muse]

Do you have a target price for now or waiting for half year?

Patiently waiting. See how things unfold.

[Muse]

Wil never break $60

SP starting with a 5 today...yikes.

[Rawz]

will bever break $50

[Sideshow Bob]

will bever break $50

Nekk minute.....

(although currently would struggle to see it breaking $50......)

[Entrep]

I'm a buyer at 49 New Zealand Dollars.

[iceman]

I'm a buyer at 49 New Zealand Dollars.

I'd say the competition will be stiff at that level !

[777]

I'm a buyer at 49 New Zealand Dollars.

Doubt you will be successful.

[Rawz]

SP is pretty far under the yahoo max 200d moving average. Doesn’t go waaaay under like this very often

[Lease]

Good time to buy one of the best NZ listed companies.

[Rawz]

Patience my friend, patience :cool:

Now? Or…..?

[winner69]

SP is pretty far under the yahoo max 200d moving average. Doesn’t go waaaay under like this very often

You need to look at the Rainbow MAT on the chart ….cool

[Ricky-bobby]

Drop today based on freightways announcement?…

[Sideshow Bob]

Drop today based on freightways announcement?…

I thought Freightways Q1 was OK considering - NPAT was down 4.7% on corresponding period last year. Big jump in revenue, but a decent chunk of that will be fuel surcharges. But they got slammed 6%.

But it is what is ahead that is the worry......

[Muse]

I thought Freightways Q1 was OK considering - NPAT was down 4.7% on corresponding period last year. Big jump in revenue, but a decent chunk of that will be fuel surcharges. But they got slammed 6%.

But it is what is ahead that is the worry......

Freightways acquired Allied Express and this quarter included those earnings, and didnt in the prior year’s Q1. Spent $160m and completed on 30 September 2022, and on its own was a $20m EBITA business.

Another worry is the comment that AU has started to mirror the downturn in NZ.

Back to MFT - a peer (DSV) posted some weaker than expected results overnight. Reckon that together with Freightways announcement - coupled w mkt weakness generally - spooked the horses.

[Muse]

Some global freight rate indices to mull over - container & air.

Not necessarily directly attributable to MFT as not all trade routes have been impacted equally, and MFT will have concentration amongst certain geographies and routes that'll make its experience different to the global index - but directionally still be similar.

14809

[alokdhir]

NZD 57 shud hold on closing basis ....but then it's not normal times ...but many can still use this opportunity wisely !

Wish I had few millions in savings ...alas I have OD :p

[winner69]

NZD 57 shud hold on closing basis ....but then it's not normal times ...but many can still use this opportunity wisely !

Wish I had few millions in savings ...alas I have OD :p


I think you didn’t really expect it to go 57 …but 57 held just

Carnage today eh

[Valuegrowth]

https://theloadstar.com/gloomy-outlook-for-container-shipping-and-not-just-for-2024/

[Rawz]

Looks like SP bottomed around the $55 level.

will never see $55 again. well done to those that topped up

[alokdhir]

Looks like SP bottomed around the $55 level.

will never see $55 again. well done to those that topped up

Most likely but still can react badly to upcoming results on 9th Nov ...after that it shud be smooth sailing

I did remind people to use that opportunity wisely but most must have missed waiting for sub $ 50 levels maybe !!!

[Entrep]

Looks like SP bottomed around the $55 level.

will never see $55 again. well done to those that topped up

You also said it would never break $60 too, and post the above after it is green for a day or two? lol

[Leemsip]

Looks like SP bottomed around the $55 level.

will never see $55 again. well done to those that topped up

Bit early for congratulations Rawzy. Lets see some punishing numbers on Nov the 9th first.

[Rawz]

You also said it would never break $60 too, and post the above after it is green for a day or two? lol

When?? I cant see my posts. Blocked this Rawz dude- he never gets stuff right lol

[777]

When?? I cant see my posts. Blocked this Rawz dude- he never gets stuff right lol

Blocking yourself. I like it.

Bought a few more myself this week.

[Leemsip]

Looking forward to some bag holder quotes from Rawz later on:
- I dont care about price, its a good chance to own more of the company
- I relish these drops in price blah
- greedy when others are etc etc

Delicious.
Will vindicate me staying out of the market since 2009 waiting for a crash.

[Rawz]

Looking forward to some bag holder quotes from Rawz later on:
- I dont care about price, its a good chance to own more of the company
- I relish these drops in price blah
- greedy when others are etc etc

Delicious.
Will vindicate me staying out of the market since 2009 waiting for a crash.
I’m ready :)


I hope the price doesn’t go back up too quick, I’m still buying!

If it drops anymore I’m backing up the truck!

I can’t believe the market has got this so wrong!

I’m buying $1 for 50cents!

Oh great, the price has dropped. I can buy more!

[Muse]

I’m ready :)


I hope the price doesn’t go back up too quick, I’m still buying!

If it drops anymore I’m backing up the truck!

I can’t believe the market has got this so wrong!

I’m buying $1 for 50cents!

Oh great, the price has dropped. I can buy more!


lol

SR should check out MFB w/ its constant halving in price...he'll love it.

[alokdhir]

I think you didn’t really expect it to go 57 …but 57 held just

Carnage today eh

I reckon there is a rule about two closings below major level to qualify as level broken in TA chats ...I think MFT did only once closing @ $ 56.30 !!! So me ok ??

[kiora]

Daily volume needs to pick up to be convincing?

[alokdhir]

Daily volume needs to pick up to be convincing?

Will come as selling vol at closing auction ...lol

[winner69]

Will come as selling vol at closing auction ...lol

Love it when you’re happy and on a roll

[alokdhir]

Love it when you’re happy and on a roll

Happy I am always ...but just participating in fun with all our mates here ... Hold lots of TRA also so will participate then also ...if u cant beat them then join them is the wise choice :D

[Sideshow Bob]

From BusinessDesk (paywalled):

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/mainfreight-half-year-revenues-could-be-down-1b?utm_source=7am+Headlines+from+BusinessDesk&utm_campaign=37af7efc1a-7am+Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_617c2ef34a-37af7efc1a-402467359



Mainfreight half year revenues could be down $1b (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=21ab75a748&e=3b6f9185d3)



Transport and logistics bellwether stock Mainfreight is due for a "material decline" in profitability for the first half of the year, reflecting global customer destocking, Forsyth Barr says.
In a research note ahead of this Thursday's interim results to September, the investment house said it expects to see volumes well down on the back of the weaker global freight environment.

Read on » (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=80ce39e92c&e=3b6f9185d3)

[winner69]

From BusinessDesk (paywalled):

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/mainfreight-half-year-revenues-could-be-down-1b?utm_source=7am+Headlines+from+BusinessDesk&utm_campaign=37af7efc1a-7am+Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_617c2ef34a-37af7efc1a-402467359



Mainfreight half year revenues could be down $1b (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=21ab75a748&e=3b6f9185d3)



Transport and logistics bellwether stock Mainfreight is due for a "material decline" in profitability for the first half of the year, reflecting global customer destocking, Forsyth Barr says.
In a research note ahead of this Thursday's interim results to September, the investment house said it expects to see volumes well down on the back of the weaker global freight environment.

Read on » (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=80ce39e92c&e=3b6f9185d3)





No worries Bob …all priced into the share price.

[winner69]

Marketscreener consensus forecasts show only a 1/2 billion top line decline

Forbar really down in the dumps eh

[alokdhir]

Marketscreener consensus forecasts show only a 1/2 billion top line decline

Forbar really down in the dumps eh

Consensus still looking for $ 1.20 HY eps ...ie in its worst HY ...next half maybe $ 1.60 ...total still respectable $ 2.80 ?? What say u mate ?

[Valuegrowth]

No worries Bob …all priced into the share price.Thank you for the information.

[Valuegrowth]

No worries Bob …all priced into the share price.Thank you for the information.



From BusinessDesk (paywalled):

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/mainfreight-half-year-revenues-could-be-down-1b?utm_source=7am+Headlines+from+BusinessDesk&utm_campaign=37af7efc1a-7am+Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_617c2ef34a-37af7efc1a-402467359



Mainfreight half year revenues could be down $1b (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=21ab75a748&e=3b6f9185d3)



Transport and logistics bellwether stock Mainfreight is due for a "material decline" in profitability for the first half of the year, reflecting global customer destocking, Forsyth Barr says.
In a research note ahead of this Thursday's interim results to September, the investment house said it expects to see volumes well down on the back of the weaker global freight environment.

Read on » (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=80ce39e92c&e=3b6f9185d3)

[Valuegrowth]

No worries Bob …all priced into the share price.Thank you for the information.


From BusinessDesk (paywalled):

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/mainfreight-half-year-revenues-could-be-down-1b?utm_source=7am+Headlines+from+BusinessDesk&utm_campaign=37af7efc1a-7am+Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_617c2ef34a-37af7efc1a-402467359



Mainfreight half year revenues could be down $1b (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=21ab75a748&e=3b6f9185d3)



Transport and logistics bellwether stock Mainfreight is due for a "material decline" in profitability for the first half of the year, reflecting global customer destocking, Forsyth Barr says.
In a research note ahead of this Thursday's interim results to September, the investment house said it expects to see volumes well down on the back of the weaker global freight environment.

Read on » (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=80ce39e92c&e=3b6f9185d3)

[winner69]

Share price trashed today …apparently after Maersk reported gloomy news.

At least it didn’t close at days low of $57.01

[Valuegrowth]

Can we expect recovery in the shipping industry in 2025?
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/wait-for-airfreight-recovery-could-extend-deep-into-2024

Share price trashed today …apparently after Maersk reported gloomy news.

At least it didn’t close at days low of $57.01

[BlackPeter]

Can we expect recovery in the shipping industry in 2025?
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/wait-for-airfreight-recovery-could-extend-deep-into-2024

Why so pessimistic? Current downturn is mainly due to companies reducing the buffer they did build up during Covid. Just check how big these buffers are, and than you know when the shipping industry will go up again.

[777]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ups-reduces-pilot-head-count-215119142.html

UPS and Fedex have volume reduction as well

[alokdhir]

Last numerous HYs MFT has outperformed estimates of the street ...Current consensus estimate is $ 1.19 ...fingers crossed

But all can expect very candid and honest update about future .

IMHO most investor friendly and straight talker company ...India operations already on with first operational office in Mumbai

What ever the short term brings ...most positive about MFT longer term ...wont be surprised it exceeds my expectations ...which are only double its SP in next 3 years ...:D

[kiora]

With a dip in between?

[alokdhir]

With a dip in between?


No in between buddy ...where ever is the bottom now ...which will be soon ...most likely it will bottom out tomorrow ....wont be surprised it closes big up after opening weak on results !!!

[iceman]

A small-ish shipping company with sea- and land freight operations in North Atlantic (Europe - USA) which I hold a few shares in, has just reported Q3.


Q3 YTD
Revenue -31% -23%
EBIDTA - 30% -20%
NPAT -41% -18%

Thought I'd share this here for a fun comparison for a different part of the World but MFT is heavily involved in Europe and USA, so it may give us some idea on what to expect from that part of our operation.

Blaming drop in international freight pricing and a significant drop in volume in Q3..

But interesting comment was that input costs, i.e. operational costs have gone down 31% as well, due to cheaper pricing of contracted freight services.

[iceman]

Sorry for the formatting above. Not sure what has happened. Looks totally different when I try to edit it. The two percentage numbers are for Q3 and YTD (first 3 quarters)

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421320

Financial result for the six months ended 30 September 2023 (Unaudited)

Commentary

Mainfreight is pleased to confirm our half-year financial results to 30 September 2023. This result, whilst significantly reduced from the prior comparative period, reflects a more “normalised” trading environment from that experienced in the prior year, where exceptionally high freight volumes and rate structures overly inflated our trading results.

This return to a more normalised trading environment has seen results across our Air & Ocean and domestic Transportation categories decline. Our operations across the USA, Europe and Asia are the most affected.

Result Summary

Revenue $ 2.36 billion Down 21.6%
Profit before tax $174.8 million Down 42.1%
Net profit $124.55 million Down 42.6%

• Adjusted for foreign exchange impact, Group Revenue is down 23.0%, Profit before tax is down 42.5%, and Net profit is down 43.0%.
• Operating cash flows declined from $291.4 million to $186.8 million and reflects the reduction in profitability for the period.
• An interim dividend of 85 cents per share has been set by the Board of Directors, payable on 15 December 2023.

This result reflects a well signalled downturn in freight demand and the subsequent reduction in Airfreight and Ocean freight rate levels.
Inflationary pressures have increased our cost to service, and net margins have reduced as a consequence. During the month of September, we have experienced small improvements in trading, particularly across our domestic freight networks in New Zealand and Australia. However, our American and European Transport operations continue to lag.

Group Operating Cash Flows

Operating cash flows were $186.8 million, down from $291.4 million in the prior comparative period. This reflects the profitability reduction. We continue to have satisfactory cash collection.

Net funds (debt) reduction has reduced to $20.9 million in funds, down from $122.8 million at 31 March 2023. Net debt of $26.3 million at September 2022.
Debt facilities total $499 million, of which $317 million remain undrawn. Current bank facilities have been extended to April 2028.

Net capital expenditure totalled $127 million for the half-year period to September 2023. Expenditure for land and buildings accounting for $55 million, warehousing racking and fit out costs of $39 million, plant and equipment of $20 million. Information technology had a spend of $13 million.

Dividend

The Directors have approved a final dividend of 85 cents per share, fully imputed at the 28% company tax rate. With the record date on 8 December 2023, payment will be made 15 December 2023.

Product Performance (NZ$)

Transport
Revenue: $1,087.68 million down 2%
PBT: $ 73.44 million down 33%
Warehousing
Revenue: $ 393.30 million up 11%
PBT: $ 27.16 million down 6%
Air & Ocean
Revenue: $ 874.06 million down 43%
PBT: $ 74.24 million down 54%

Divisional Performance (figures in local currencies)
New Zealand

Revenue NZ$557 million Down 13.6%

Profit before tax NZ$61.1 million Down 18%

Transport volumes have marginally increased through the first half with September profitability exceeding the September month in the prior year. A sign of improvement.
Warehousing continues to trade ahead of the prior year with significant new customer gains underway, particularly for our new Favona, South Auckland site.
Air & Ocean trading has been satisfactory, relative to the decline in global trading.

Customer gains across the New Zealand business has been encouraging with a number of additional contracts pending.
Australia

Revenue AU$633 million Down 9.2%

Profit before tax AU$6.5 million Down 10.6%

Trading for the September month saw improved profitability in our domestic Transport and Air & Ocean operations with Warehousing marginally behind as new facilities are opened.

Whilst Australia has been our best performing region during the first half, we do expect a tougher lead into Christmas, as retail trading softens and industrial action at Ports by the MUA Union disrupts shipping and replenishment of retail warehouses.

November has seen the much-anticipated opening of our new Moorebank Warehousing site, which incorporates rail services ex the Port of Sydney and negates the need for a number of overflow warehouses.

The Americas

Revenue US$325 million Down 42.3%

Profit before tax US$12.0 million Down 79.7%

Our poorest performing division, with particularly disappointing performances from our Air & Ocean division and that of our Transport operations. Warehousing has performed satisfactorily.

The dramatic decline in Air & Ocean freight rates particularly on the Trans-Pacific East Bound trade from China has a marked impact on our results. Whilst restocking has seen forward orders improve gradually through until Christmas, we do not expect to see the levels of profitability obtained in the prior period in the near future.
As we reposition our domestic Transport operations, our margin performance has deteriorated, albeit freight volumes have increased. The quality margin of these volume increases is our challenge. Leadership in our Transport division has changed – Mitch Gregor, who has previously been in New Zealand Transport and Warehousing leadership roles has relocated to Chicago to find improvement and growth in our domestic Transport operations.

Warehousing activity and profitability has been satisfactory, including the consolidation of our Dallas warehouses to one 46,500 sqm site. Utilisation across the balance of warehousing sites provides opportunity for further development.

CaroTrans has seen a decline in LCL (Less than Container Load) freight tonnage. As Ocean freight rates decline, more LCL volume is being shipped in FCL (Full Container Load) form.

Strong sales activity continues across all four divisions, and we remain confident of the long-term opportunities across the region.

Europe

Revenue €282 million Down 13.7%

Profit before tax € 12.5 million Down 46.6%

Improved trading across our Warehousing locations has been pleasing, with profitability improved on the prior period.

Unfortunately, this has been offset by disappointing results from our Transport network where driver overhead cost increases and reduced volumes have reduced profitability.

Air & Ocean performance has been impacted by reduced international volumes and rate decline, consistent with the other regions and the decline in global trading.
Sales activity, particularly for Warehousing inquiries has increased, requiring additional Warehousing sites in the medium term. Domestic Freight Rate increases are planned for January implementation.

Asia

Revenue US$49 million Down 51.3%

Profit before tax US$6.6 million Down 58.8%

Ongoing slowing freight demand continues to impact our financial performance in Asia – particularly due to the reliance on Transpacific freight volume from China to the USA.

Development across Southeast Asia continues, and our sales activities have been satisfactory. Refocussing our trade lane development to and from Europe and Australasia, is reducing our reliance on China and the Transpacific.

Post the half-year, our operations in Mumbai, India, have opened with a number of sales opportunities presenting themselves.

Outlook

This half-year result to September is one of our toughest, when compared to the prior period. Whilst this has been well signalled, we now see a more “normalised” trading environment in front of us.

Whilst the macro trading environment continues to be slow, our level of sales activities and opportunities provide confidence, as does the domestic trade improvements in Australasia.

Our strong customer verticals, particularly Food, Beverage, DIY, Perishable and Retail sectors, alongside our high-quality logistics global network services, are providing further opportunities. We remain committed to our prudent investment in our network facilities and technology developments. Strong management of margin and overhead costs remains key.

Recruitment of people has been closely managed and through natural attrition, our people numbers have declined by 500 post March 31, 2023.
Capital expenditure for the 2024 and 2025 financial years will reduce from $676 million to $563 million, a decline of $113 million from previous estimates, because of building delays and re-evaluation of development projects.

We expect our second six months of trading to improve, albeit marginally, and remain confident of our medium to long-term growth prospects.
Mainfreight will release its financial results for the full 2024 financial year on 29 May 2024.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421321

t is with a degree of disappointment, but also pride, that we announce Tim’s intention to retire post our year-end result in June 2024.

Tim has been our CFO since the acquisition of Daily Freightways in 1994 and, prior to that, held various finance roles for Daily Freightways since 1984. A total of 40 years of dedicated and loyal, blemish free, service to our company. Tim played an integral role during the public listing of Mainfreight in 1996 and has held the CFO position ever since.

His integrity, honesty, and attention to detail has been exemplary. He has played a crucial and valuable role in advice, guidance, and the technical requirements of developing Mainfreight across 26 different countries with the variety and complexity of the accounting jurisdictions involved.

Tim has developed a very capable and professional accounting team around the world and therefore, we have been able to promote internally for the CFO role.

Graeme Illing, our New Zealand Financial Controller, will assume the role of CFO upon Tim’s departure next year. Graeme, who started with Mainfreight in May 2000, will transition to the role over the next seven months.

We are extremely grateful and proud to have had Tim with us during our journey and we acknowledge his tremendous contribution over this time. Tim is held in high regard by us all, team members and the market alike.

He retires with a huge vote of thanks for all he has accomplished for us.

[alokdhir]

On first glance looks almost same as street expectations ...revenues worse but NP slight beat .

Outlook slight positive ...so it shud bottom out soon if not today . 85 Cents will come before Xmas !!

[winner69]

Just as well things have ‘normalised’ eh Bob ….else there would have been carnage on market

But alokdhir called it ….expect share price to go up strongly in next few days ….might even get back mid 60’s/70

[alokdhir]

Just as well things have ‘normalised’ eh Bob ….else there would have been carnage on market

But alokdhir called it ….expect share price to go up strongly in next few days ….might even get back mid 60’s/70

Have not traded over 30 day moving average for a while now ...maybe finally will crossover on your encouragement mate :t_up:

[iceman]

Very respectable result in a "normalised" trading environment :-)

[Rawz]

So it’s roughly trading on a forward P/E of 20?

[winner69]

Have not traded over 30 day moving average for a while now ...maybe finally will crossover on your encouragement mate :t_up:

I'm glad I bought a few the other day

Sounds like I need to keep an eye on that chart lol

[bull....]

share price should be in the 30s based on that result

[Bikeguy]

share price should be in the 30s based on that result

Yes, seems about right? The fundamental drivers of this business and the medium term market conditions would suggest a slight correction?
But the market does what the market does

[bull....]

Yes, seems about right? The fundamental drivers of this business and the medium term market conditions would suggest a slight correction?
But the market does what the market does

macro factors / geopolitics will over time drive more squeezed margins as things slow down more next yr . share price will re-rate down over time is my pick.

the fact there reducing capex and headcount says it all going forward as they try to protect profits

[Rawz]

macro factors / geopolitics will over time drive more squeezed margins as things slow down more next yr . share price will re-rate down over time is my pick.

the fact there reducing capex and headcount says it all going forward as they try to protect profits

Yes agree bull that’s what I thought too when I read that part

[Bikeguy]

macro factors / geopolitics will over time drive more squeezed margins as things slow down more next yr . share price will re-rate down over time is my pick.

the fact there reducing capex and headcount says it all going forward as they try to protect profits

Yes, have to agree…golden run for freight movement is clearly coming back to earth globally.

[Muse]

The full 2H PBT result (-42.1%) more or less inline with the first quarter (-43.3%), implying a fractional improvement in YoY performance in the 2nd quarter - a start.

Consensus for FY24 NPAT is $278m. With $124.5m achieved in 1H, that implies the business must achieve $153.5m in the 2H to meet consensus, or a 23% lift. Page 6 of the management discussion & analysis "we expect our second six months of trading to improve, albeit marginally." A 23% lift probably qualifies more than marginal. Main reason for this appears to be Australia, which was the strongest performer in 1H, being called out as having a harder outlook in the 2H.

If consensus of NPAT $278m / EPS $2.76 achievable, current SP looks reasonable if fully priced at 21x, in the context of a tough cyclical trading environment for a growth company.

Cashflow a bit of a lowlight....
Operating cashflow: $186.5m
less investing CF: -$127.1m
less leases: -$81.2m
FCF before financing/divies: -$21.6m

Could just be working capital cycle I haven't followed MFT particularly closely. Likely a factor of chunky capex in a relatively depressed trading environment.

[alokdhir]

macro factors / geopolitics will over time drive more squeezed margins as things slow down more next yr . share price will re-rate down over time is my pick.

the fact there reducing capex and headcount says it all going forward as they try to protect profits

I hope u understand that freight business bottoms earliest before real economy recession which u are trying to figure in ..in your assessments .

They have clearly mentioned that this was and WILL be their worst HY in a while ...MFT outlook guidance is very well respected as they are most honest and straight talker company !!

But still u think it shud or is worth $ 30 then how about passing some at $ 40 to me before that mate ...I am and will be in the Q outside your house ..lol

[bull....]

The full 2H PBT result (-42.1%) more or less inline with the first quarter (-43.3%), implying a fractional improvement in YoY performance in the 2nd quarter - a start.

Consensus for FY24 NPAT is $278m. With $124.5m achieved in 1H, that implies the business must achieve $153.5m in the 2H to meet consensus, or a 23% lift. Page 6 of the management discussion & analysis "we expect our second six months of trading to improve, albeit marginally." A 23% lift probably qualifies more than marginal. Main reason for this appears to be Australia, which was the strongest performer in 1H, being called out as having a harder outlook in the 2H.

If consensus of NPAT $278m / EPS $2.76 achievable, current SP looks reasonable if fully priced at 21x, in the context of a tough cyclical trading environment for a growth company.

Cashflow a bit of a lowlight....
Operating cashflow: $186.5m
less investing CF: -$127.1m
less leases: -$81.2m
FCF before financing/divies: -$21.6m

Could just be working capital cycle I haven't followed MFT particularly closely. Likely a factor of chunky capex in a relatively depressed trading environment.

good stuff , like you say they look too optimistic too me

[Muse]

good stuff , like you say they look too optimistic too me

To be fair I’m not close to MFT so i dont know the normal seasonal patterns - ie normal 1H/2H splits. There was plenty of good stuff in the report in terms of new customers wins and commencements.

[Bikeguy]

good stuff , like you say they look too optimistic too me

They are a great company, and fairly straightforward in how they assess and present their company, however my thoughts are they are being abit too optimistic about the headwinds they are now being impacted by, and will continue to experience over this coming cycle,
Nothing wrong with backing yourself though…my bet is a downward correction, immediately and over the coming months.

[Rawz]

1H = $124.5M
2H = $130.7M (Marginal improvement i.e. 1H + 5%)
FY24= $255.2M

$255.2m / 101.1m shares = $2.52 eps

$2.52 eps x 20pe = $50.4 fair sp?

[777]

And will open at $60

[Bikeguy]

And will open at $60

Laughing, you were right,
The market will do what the market will do👊

[Sideshow Bob]

Laughing, you were right,
The market will do what the market will do

Especially now it is $61.

[Toddy]

Well done to punters that picked this one. Enjoy the uplift.

[Rawz]

never see $60 again, well done holders :p

[Sideshow Bob]

never see $60 again, well done holders :p

Over $62.

But surely Rawz has now jinxed it!

[winner69]

never see $60 again, well done holders :p

Yep, now things have normalised we never see sub $60 again

[alokdhir]

Yep, now things have normalised we never see sub $60 again

W69 has again proved to be better reader of results and market reaction ...I think early morning his assessment of SP reaction was spot on ...well done again mate :t_up:

U called mid sixties while some said mid thirties ...Market agrees with your assessment

[bull....]

W69 has again proved to be better reader of results and market reaction ...I think early morning his assessment of SP reaction was spot on ...well done again mate :t_up:

U called mid sixties while some said mid thirties ...Market agrees with your assessment

lol i said in time

[alokdhir]

lol i said in time

Many will wait for that time to come ...lol

More u dig ..deeper u get into hole :p

[bull....]

Many will wait for that time to come ...lol

More u dig ..deeper u get into hole :p

bounce back just from the big sell down prior to announcement eh ... what ya think ?

[alokdhir]

bounce back just from the big sell down prior to announcement eh ... what ya think ?

See its longterm charts ...then U will easily figure out what quality company is MFT ...Rawz mentioned many many times that only 3 times its SP went below 200DMA in last 25 years or so ....This times is exact replica of 2007-2009 downtrend ...after that see what happened to its SP ....U sure are a great chartist u will make out in no time ...only problem maybe u are use to reading or watching 30 minute charts and not longer term ...lol

Since mid July its been trading below its 30DMA ...today first time it cud cross it ...now no looking back mate ...maybe a small revisit of $ 60 level but I wont bet on it .

[bull....]

See its longterm charts ...then U will easily figure out what quality company is MFT ...Rawz mentioned many many times that only 3 times its SP went below 200DMA in last 25 years or so ....This times is exact replica of 2007-2009 downtrend ...after that see what happened to its SP ....U sure are a great chartist u will make out in no time ...only problem maybe u are use to reading or watching 30 minute charts and not longer term ...lol

Since mid July its been trading below its 30DMA ...today first time it cud cross it ...now no looking back mate ...maybe a small revisit of $ 60 level but I wont bet on it .

chart levels before covid juiced everything im looking at

[Muse]

I'm a very content, long-term holder. But couldn't bring myself to add to the holding over the last week or after reading the report.

According to Jarden, MFT's rolling 1 year forward PE multiple from October 2005 to now is ~17.5x.

EPS in 1H24 was 1.24 rounded, assume some marginal increase in 2H of say of 5% (no idea what the right % is, but marginal improvement in 2H was MFT's words not mine), gets you to full year EPS of about 2.54. That puts MFT on a prospective FY24 PE of ~24.6x, or about 40% higher than its long term average forward PE multiple. Trough / 'close to trough' year earnings sure maybe ought to command a higher PE rather than its straight LT average, but 40% not so sure. Airfreight prices still have some way to come down. Anyway never going to pick the bottom and by the time you do the market is forward looking, I'm just not so sure the hockey stick projections are right.

But as I say, happy to hold, see how things go & if the price looks right perhaps pick up some more otherwise a big investible world out there. Think its wise not to be overly committed to buying something (or indeed committed to selling or holding).

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mainfreight-has-post-pandemic-freight-frenzy-hangover/K7USKJC7WVGNFO5E2THBRYXVTA/

[Muse]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mainfreight-has-post-pandemic-freight-frenzy-hangover/K7USKJC7WVGNFO5E2THBRYXVTA/

Good on Tim Williams (CFO) for giving such long notice for his retirement. Certainly didn't spook any horses. A respectable, long career he's had and certainly seen some stuff while he was there, including the huge growth in the business and all the complexity that brings, covid, all the funding for its property empire expansion.

It would be interesting to look at MFT's property metrics compared to its peers....ie MFT's property portfolio as a % of its enterprise value relative to its peers, and how does MFT's reported PE compare to its PE net of property - if it leased all its facilities. IE mcap less property / NPAT less a notional rent (property value x say 6% industrial cap rate, or whatever)

[alokdhir]

Predictability of MFT business ie great estimates of its forward earnings is a big plus ...Street estimates of this HY eps was $ 1.19 ...very close to $ 1.24 actuals ...similarly FY 24 estimates are $ 2.77 ...actuals maybe $ 2.85+ ...next year EPS forecasted is $ 3.26 and so on ...normally they are very open and transparent with their current and forward operations .

As per Market Screener last 5 years average PER is 25.1 ...more then last 10 years as they started growing faster as their network spread .

Now if one wants this superb quality company at 25 times forward then one can argue 25 times FY25 $ 3.26 + = $ 81 as yearly target .

I fully understand sentiment is poor and conditions are not ideal so maybe not looking as compelling VALUE to many when one can see other smaller companies like TRA etc doing reasonably well at much lower valuations ...but MFT has earned its stripes to get this market valuations ...after all many institutional investors pay hefty premiums for quality and corporate governance etc

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MAINFREIGHT-LIMITED-6492059/finances/

[Muse]

Predictability of MFT business ie great estimates of its forward earnings is a big plus ...Street estimates of this HY eps was $ 1.19 ...very close to $ 1.24 actuals ...similarly FY 24 estimates are $ 2.77 ...actuals maybe $ 2.85+ ...next year EPS forecasted is $ 3.26 and so on ...normally they are very open and transparent with their current and forward operations .

As per Market Screener last 5 years average PER is 25.1 ...more then last 10 years as they started growing faster as their network spread .

Now if one wants this superb quality company at 25 times forward then one can argue 25 times FY25 $ 3.26 + = $ 81 as yearly target .

I fully understand sentiment is poor and conditions are not ideal so maybe not looking as compelling VALUE to many when one can see other smaller companies like TRA etc doing reasonably well at much lower valuations ...but MFT has earned its stripes to get this market valuations ...after all many institutional investors pay hefty premiums for quality and corporate governance etc

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MAINFREIGHT-LIMITED-6492059/finances/

Don't really agree with all that.

Look at the EPS revisions...fy24 EPS 4.37 in November 2022...one year later it fell to 2.77 before todays announcement. Similar picture to FY25 and FY26.

The street estimates you refer to for 1H 2024 consist of only 1 analyst from the 5 that cover mainfreight. The other 4 didn't specifically provide 1H forecasts, craigs and jarden for instance made previews where they gave a rough PBT expectation (actual came in lower than craigs and higher than jardens). The result should have been reasonably well signaled given the 1Q guidance they provided at the (AGM?).

I agree MFT don't use as many superlative adjectives as many other firms, but they didn't really at the peak of the freight bubble come out and say it was indeed a pricing bubble. The management team is universally well regarded and about as blue chip as they come on the NZX (exception of perhaps FPH) and people pay up for that as you say. The last time I bought MFT was $45 bucks back in 2020 and I was grimacing through my teeth when I clicked the buy button, as I did most other times I bought. and its worked out well.

The 5 yr ave PE per marketscreener is 25.1 as you say but a few bits there...I'm unclear if those are prospective forward multiples or historic, and that's a big point. That is a sample set on just 5 days, whereas the long term ave per jarden is a daily average since 2005, a much bigger sample set. The last 5 years have been plagued by uncertainty on what maintainable earnings were. and interest rates have been the lowest in recent memory. I think its too hard to have a view on if its growing faster or slower over the last 5 years vs previously given the freight price bubble so no comment there. So I certainly regard 17.5x a better representation of an appropriate PE on a through the cycle basis than 25x.

[alokdhir]

Don't really agree with all that.

Look at the EPS revisions...fy24 EPS 4.37 in November 2022...one year later it fell to 2.77 before todays announcement. Similar picture to FY25 and FY26.

The street estimates you refer to for 1H 2024 consist of only 1 analyst from the 5 that cover mainfreight. The other 4 didn't specifically provide 1H forecasts, craigs and jarden for instance made previews where they gave a rough PBT expectation (actual came in lower than craigs and higher than jardens). The result should have been reasonably well signaled given the 1Q guidance they provided at the (AGM?).

I agree MFT don't use as many superlative adjectives as many other firms, but they didn't really at the peak of the freight bubble come out and say it was indeed a pricing bubble. The management team is universally well regarded and about as blue chip as they come on the NZX (exception of perhaps FPH) and people pay up for that as you say. The last time I bought MFT was $45 bucks back in 2020 and I was grimacing through my teeth when I clicked the buy button, as I did most other times I bought. and its worked out well.

The 5 yr ave PE per marketscreener is 25.1 as you say but a few bits there...I'm unclear if those are prospective forward multiples or historic, and that's a big point. That is a sample set on just 5 days, whereas the long term ave per jarden is a daily average since 2005, a much bigger sample set. The last 5 years have been plagued by uncertainty on what maintainable earnings were. and interest rates have been the lowest in recent memory. I think its too hard to have a view on if its growing faster or slower over the last 5 years vs previously given the freight price bubble so no comment there. So I certainly regard 17.5x a better representation of an appropriate PE on a through the cycle basis than 25x.

As I am not an accountant so cant really do the maths but I do believe in the collective wisdom of the market . Market can be wrong for some time but not all the time for last so many years . Charts are a representation of market behaviour about that particular stock ...though I am not a chart / TA expert but I do know some simple basics ...if any stock remains 95% of the time in last two decades over its 200 DMA means its really liked by the market ...for what reasons ...Do we need figure that out in detail ? If one has some faith in collective wisdom of the market then its simpler to follow the trend ...reasons will reveal .

U bought @ $ 45 in 2020 ... FY20 eps was $ 1.60 ...thus u bought at almost 28 current PER and 24 forward ...not too much different then 25 PER I stated as per market screener data !!!

[Muse]

As I am not an accountant so cant really do the maths but I do believe in the collective wisdom of the market . Market can be wrong for some time but not all the time for last so many years . Charts are a representation of market behaviour about that particular stock ...though I am not a chart / TA expert but I do know some simple basics ...if any stock remains 95% of the time in last two decades over its 200 DMA means its really liked by the market ...for what reasons ...Do we need figure that out in detail ? If one has some faith in collective wisdom of the market then its simpler to follow the trend ...reasons will reveal .

U bought @ $ 45 in 2020 ... FY20 eps was $ 1.60 ...thus u bought at almost 28 current PER and 24 forward ...not too much different then 25 PER I stated as per market screener data !!!

Yes - and I'm looking at a chart of MFT's forward PE from 2005 to now - "a representation of market behaviour of a particular stock" though the cycle, overlaid with standard deviations. Charting can incapsulate both technical and fundamental data, and I know which one has created more wealth for me over the decades.

You are correct though the forward PE when I purchased was about 24x, albeit on covid impact earnings.

anyway I'm a holder, just not a buyer

[alokdhir]

Yes - and I'm looking at a chart of MFT's forward PE from 2005 to now - "a representation of market behaviour of a particular stock" though the cycle, overlaid with standard deviations. Charting can incapsulate both technical and fundamental data, and I know which one has created more wealth for me over the decades.

You are correct though the forward PE when I purchased was about 24x, albeit on covid impact earnings.

anyway I'm a holder, just not a buyer

Like ways ...me a holder since 2010 and very satisfied with its performance . Hopefully it will keep doing the same ahead :t_up:

[Leemsip]

Like ways ...me a holder since 2010 and very satisfied with its performance . Hopefully it will keep doing the same ahead :t_up:

Kudos to the holders and buyers. MFT coming through the cycle looking decent. Still too expensive for me....

[winner69]

Yes - and I'm looking at a chart of MFT's forward PE from 2005 to now - "a representation of market behaviour of a particular stock" though the cycle, overlaid with standard deviations. Charting can incapsulate both technical and fundamental data, and I know which one has created more wealth for me over the decades.

You are correct though the forward PE when I purchased was about 24x, albeit on covid impact earnings.

anyway I'm a holder, just not a buyer

Would love to see that chart Muse …could you post a screen shot or something

Cheers

[alokdhir]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/502007/mainfreight-positive-despite-first-half-dip-in-profit

[iceman]

Kudos to the holders and buyers. MFT coming through the cycle looking decent. Still too expensive for me....

I remember similar comments back in 2006 when I first bought in with SP starting with 4 and dividends of 3c. For long term investors, they don't come much better than this well run company.

[alokdhir]

I remember similar comments back in 2006 when I first bought in with SP starting with 4 and dividends of 3c. For long term investors, they don't come much better than this well run company.

I have heard people talking about its low yield ...not for long term investors ....I got in April 2010 around $ 6 and now its dividends are almost $ 2 per year ...so the yield is pretty great for me ...lol

Thats the beauty of a good growth stock ...it becomes an exceptional yield stock over time !!

[iceman]

I have heard people talking about its low yield ...not for long term investors ....I got in April 2010 around $ 6 and now its dividends are almost $ 2 per year ...so the yield is pretty great for me ...lol

Thats the beauty of a good growth stock ...it becomes an exceptional yield stock over time !!

Yes the dividend growth of this company has been spectacular and very under estimated. My divie yield on original purchase price is around 35%. The best bottom drawer share you can buy on the NZX in my view.

[Muse]

broker reports coming in this AM...FY24 EPS on the ones I've seen (so far) seems to be around 2.75, 3.12 for FY25. Gives it a rough 1 year fwd EPS of about $2.93 (50% * $2.75 + 50% * $3.12), and implied 1 year forward PE of 21.4 (I prefer current year PE's but just doing the maths so I can compare its long term 1 year forward PE of ~17.5x). Still toppy but not so bad in the context of MFT's long term growth profile and this being a down year. maybe I am a visionless hack lol...hmmm.

[Rawz]

broker reports coming in this AM...FY24 EPS on the ones I've seen (so far) seems to be around 2.75, 3.12 for FY25. Gives it a rough 1 year fwd EPS of about $2.93 (50% * $2.75 + 50% * $3.12), and implied 1 year forward PE of 21.4 (I prefer current year PE's but just doing the maths so I can compare its long term 1 year forward PE of ~17.5x). Still toppy but not so bad in the context of MFT's long term growth profile and this being a down year. maybe I am a visionless hack lol...hmmm.

Its not like we are in the free money world anymore so no reason the multiples should be above the long term PE. If anything we should be slightly below the long term PE right now..

[alokdhir]

broker reports coming in this AM...FY24 EPS on the ones I've seen (so far) seems to be around 2.75, 3.12 for FY25. Gives it a rough 1 year fwd EPS of about $2.93 (50% * $2.75 + 50% * $3.12), and implied 1 year forward PE of 21.4 (I prefer current year PE's but just doing the maths so I can compare its long term 1 year forward PE of ~17.5x). Still toppy but not so bad in the context of MFT's long term growth profile and this being a down year. maybe I am a visionless hack lol...hmmm.

U bought at 24 forward and still did alright even when MFT went thru their worst HY and current recessionary times ...imho speaks volumes about the quality of this company MFT !!

My simple take on stocks like this is ...try to get in as much below 200DMA if possible and hold forever ...if want to time exit then try as far up as possible over 200DMA . Its current 200DSMA is around $ 68.5 ...getting opportunity around $ 55 was superb ...went till $ 99.87 when its 200DSMA was about $ 72 was superb exit opportunity .

[Entrep]

broker reports coming in this AM...FY24 EPS on the ones I've seen (so far) seems to be around 2.75, 3.12 for FY25. Gives it a rough 1 year fwd EPS of about $2.93 (50% * $2.75 + 50% * $3.12), and implied 1 year forward PE of 21.4 (I prefer current year PE's but just doing the maths so I can compare its long term 1 year forward PE of ~17.5x). Still toppy but not so bad in the context of MFT's long term growth profile and this being a down year. maybe I am a visionless hack lol...hmmm.

Please post any you receive

[winner69]

Mainfreight raved about ‘normalised’/‘normalisation’ in their report yesterday

Yes F24 is returning to normalised levels

Bit spooky but no worries

[winner69]

Reported Operating Cash Flow was $186m …take off $81m of lease/rent and it was really only $105m

Spent $127m on capex

Free Cash Flow thus -$22m

Didn’t stop them paying out $88m in dividends

[Valuegrowth]

https://stockinvest.us/stock/MFT.NZ

Reported Operating Cash Flow was $186m …take off $81m of lease/rent and it was really only $105m

Spent $127m on capex

Free Cash Flow thus -$22m

Didn’t stop them paying out $88m in dividends

[winner69]

Jarden clients were net sellers last week ……#6 on their top sellers list

[Valuegrowth]

https://tse1.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.ZzhZWpA6w4WiP0mblBwJqgHaDf&pid=Api&P=0&h=180
Jarden clients were net sellers last week ……#6 on their top sellers list

[winner69]

MFT share price still some way below 200MA ……time to be buying they say even though it hasn’t broken free of the current downtrend

[winner69]

https://tse1.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.ZzhZWpA6w4WiP0mblBwJqgHaDf&pid=Api&P=0&h=180

What do you ‘weigh’ MFT at value …voting machine says 63 something

[Valuegrowth]

63 could be growth players’ voting machine. My one is much lower.


What do you ‘weigh’ MFT at value …voting machine says 63 something

[alokdhir]

MFT share price still some way below 200MA ……time to be buying they say even though it hasn’t broken free of the current
downtrend

First Baby Step was going over 30DSMA ...cud not do that for last 4 months ...rest will follow or not only time will tell ...can return to shell by dropping below 30DSMA but still its encouraging . When u are invested forever then hardly matters its now or after 6 months ...as long as u have faith in the company and their credibility to implement their future plans ...so far they have done better then their plans ...so I see no reason to doubt their capability . Market is also supporting that thought .

[alokdhir]

"Revenue is forecast to grow 8.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.2% growth forecast for the Global Logistics industry.
Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 28% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth."

Simply wall street's take on MFT !!

[winner69]

"Revenue is forecast to grow 8.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.2% growth forecast for the Global Logistics industry.
Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 28% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth."

Simply wall street's take on MFT !!

last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 28% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth." …….even though share price remains in a down trend must be a BUY BUY BUY BUY on that info

Good ol’ SimplyWallStreet eh

[Valuegrowth]

Market is forward thinking. It’s a long-term play. Shipping related firms reported high earnings thanks to covid-19 due to high demand. Going forward those types of one-time earnings cannot be expected unless we see huge demand. However, well manged companies will do well in the long run.


last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 28% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth." …….even though share price remains in a down trend must be a BUY BUY BUY BUY on that info

Good ol’ SimplyWallStreet eh

[winner69]

Market is forward thinking. It’s a long-term play. Shipping related firms reported high earnings thanks to covid-19 due to high demand. Going forward those types of one-time earnings cannot be expected unless we see huge demand. However, well manged companies will do well in the long run

Agh so the market is forward looking ….so does quite a long downtrend of the share price says things aren’t going to be as good as they have been ……..for sometime. …..trend ain’t reversed yet …is the question then how far into the future does the market look?

[Valuegrowth]

Good question.
Agh so the market is forward looking ….so does quite a long downtrend of the share price says things aren’t going to be as good as they have been ……..for sometime. …..trend ain’t reversed yet …is the question then how far into the future does the market look?

[alokdhir]

last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 28% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth." …….even though share price remains in a down trend must be a BUY BUY BUY BUY on that info

Good ol’ SimplyWallStreet eh

I think U are wiser then that ...U r just enjoying the banter ...Stocks like MFT though technically still in downtrend will eventually get out ...and stocks do take time to reverse their downtrends especially in poor sentiment conditions .Bigger Money is made choosing correct stocks when beaten rather then keep waiting till they become technical buys also . MFT existed before covid and was doing great then too ...now they are a bigger company so will return to new high in due course ...thats my faith and hope maybe ...trend will change ...rest can join then maybe wiser !

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NZX-TRA/technicals/. Now its TRA time ...already in uptrend ...no need wait much here lol

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421625

When a RM buys must be good buying ? He surely knows more then us and analysts etc

[Muse]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421625

When a RM buys must be good buying ? He surely knows more then us and analysts etc

Reasonably chunky purchase as well - not one of the $15k token purchases Director's often do for appearances sake.

[Entrep]

A cool $6M or so holding. Nice!

[maclir]

got out at 67 not so long ago, and was thinking of buying back in, today it hit 66.90, up $3.89 on the day....

Quite the bounce back from just two weeks ago.

[alokdhir]

W69 ....MFT SP over 60SMA also today ...with some style ....Soon downtrend will be officially over .... fingers crossed .

U must be feeling euphoric buying 10 days back around $ 55 :p