MFT - Mainfreight. Global Freight & Logistics

[alokdhir]

W69 ....SP moving towards 200 DSMA ...already over 200DEMA ....soon your short term golden cross will come ...if this momentum carries on ..

So buying in downtrend can also work ...if the company is right ...U bought ...so when to use TA and when not is also an wisdom and art !!

[Rawz]

W69 ....SP moving towards 200 DSMA ...already over 200DEMA ....soon your short term golden cross will come ...if this momentum carries on ..

So buying in downtrend can also work ...if the company is right ...U bought ...so when to use TA and when not is also a wisdom and art !!

Remember when I kept banging on about always good buying MFT under the long run 200dma. Only happened twice before this recent one. Still even now good buying…

[alokdhir]

Remember when I kept banging on about always good buying MFT under the long run 200dma. Only happened twice before this recent one. Still even now good buying…

Yes ...it works like charm for evergreen long term blue chips ...when they give rare great opportunities ...then they are most down from 200 DSMA

W69 called it perfectly that bottom will be close to $ 55 and it was bang on ...for me anything below $ 60 ...especially strong support of $ 57 was best buy time

[alokdhir]

I hope W69 is happy that finally SP closed over 200DSMA after sooo long ...uptrend should be CONFIRMED now ??

[alokdhir]

CUM 85 Cents fully imputed dividend today ...tmrw it goes ex ...maybe thats the buzz ...cant be its too small to entice dividend hunters

I believe FB has come out with some very positive report and they consider it as bluest of the blue chip on NZX

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NZX-MFT/technicals/

Cant get better technically !! W69 pls

[alokdhir]

its very possible that MFT is the most common pick in the Broker's picks coming out this weekend ...many maybe already in the know pre print

PS : Its way underperforming its US peer JBHT ...3% vs 15% YTD

[Muse]

its very possible that MFT is the most common pick in the Broker's picks coming out this weekend ...many maybe already in the know pre print

PS : Its way underperforming its US peer JBHT ...3% vs 15% YTD

DSV and Kuhne & Nagel are good ones to watch

Not au fait w/ the seasonality of freight rates but good to see an increase in container and air rates (freightos). Global container index on 20 october 2023 was $1,048 - up to $1,281 last week. Imagine we will see more of a lift w/ what is happening with major freight liners now avoiding the red sea (missile/drone attacks). Air freight up 23% over that period as well.

[winner69]

Suppose this news and reports of sky rocketing freight rates is good news for Mainfreight ….and bad news for the likes of retailers

Bloomberg reports that 180 container ships that were set to sail through the Red Sea and Suez Canal were either re-routed or stopped and told to wait for instructions.

[alokdhir]

Suppose this news and reports of sky rocketing freight rates is good news for Mainfreight ….and bad news for the likes of retailers

Bloomberg reports that 180 container ships that were set to sail through the Red Sea and Suez Canal were either re-routed or stopped and told to wait for instructions.

Heard on CNBC today that Container rates from China to east coast up from $ 2400 to $ 10,000 because of extra time and cost of avoiding Red Sea ...but it should be very short term imo ...as if it starts fuelling inflation in US then they can post their navy assets there for safety of ships ...but surely will perk up MFT revenues in the meanwhile ...politics will play a big part ...election year and its politics will decide the best way around it ...like u cant fight the FED ...similarly be aligned with election year politics for financial welfare ...:cool:

[winner69]

Heard on CNBC today that Container rates from China to east coast up from $ 2400 to $ 10,000 because of extra time and cost of avoiding Red Sea ...but it should be very short term imo ...as if it starts fuelling inflation in US then they can post their navy assets there for safety of ships ...but surely will perk up MFT revenues in the meanwhile ...politics will play a big part ...election year and its politics will decide the best way around it ...like u cant fight the FED ...similarly be aligned with election year politics for financial welfare ...:cool:

And Panama Canal is a bit dry and shipping restricted

WSJ reckons sail boats are the future

[percy]

From today's Live Wire;Best stocks to buy in a sell off.
Mainfreight (NZX: MFT)
Dr Philipp Hofflin: A lot of people would probably answer that with CSL's, Cochlear's, and SaaS companies. But just to be contrarian, I'll come up with Mainfreight, which is a New Zealand transport and logistics business - a completely unglamorous industry. But for the last 20 years, it's given its investors 22% compound price growth. That's over 50 times.

And the reason for that is they just run their business differently. It's structured in very small business units, hundreds of them, and they're in a very egalitarian corporate culture. So they've entered lots of markets, and as soon as they enter, they start gaining share. So great business, very well-run. It is cyclical, so we hope that sooner or later we might get a chance to buy it.

[kiora]

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/infrastructure/red-sea-attacks-good-for-mainfreight-business-forbarr?utm_source=7am+Headlines+from+BusinessDesk&utm_campaign=9734c6b139-7am+Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_617c2ef34a-9734c6b139-446239310

[winner69]

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/infrastructure/red-sea-attacks-good-for-mainfreight-business-forbarr?utm_source=7am+Headlines+from+BusinessDesk&utm_campaign=9734c6b139-7am+Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_617c2ef34a-9734c6b139-446239310

Headline is -
Red Sea attacks good for Mainfreight business - Forbarr

[alokdhir]

Headline is -
Red Sea attacks good for Mainfreight business - Forbarr

We have seen from Covid times ...any freight movement disruptions thus price increases leads to MFT getting more revenue thus more profits .

Also big economies not tanking into deep recessions as was widely expected is good for MFT ... If ...IF inflation gets fully controlled without need to cause deep recession ...then MFT should be stepping into goldilocks scenario ahead ...still a 60/40 call in my mind ...China local economy worries maybe helping keep inflation down in western economies ....it's getting super complicated to figure out path ahead ...but we will get there one way or the other ...ie MFT finally $100 in 2 years maybe ...:cool:

PS : JBHT got positive upgrades for same reasons ...up almost 5% in US today !!!

[kiora]

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/where-ark-is-looking-next-3-themes-from-the-big-ideas-2024-report?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Trending%20on%20Livewire%20-%20Tuesday%206%20February%202024&utm_content=Trending%20on%20Livewire%20-%20Tuesday%206%20February%202024+CID_52badf058b956 f09c527c97aa96f89d7&utm_source=campaign%20monitor&utm_term=DISRUPTIVE%20THEMES

"Autonomous logistics
Another area where ARK believes automation holds huge potential is in the way it can reduce costs and alter supply chains.

“Autonomous logistics should reduce the cost of moving goods by 15-fold during the next five to 10 years,” says the report.

“Autonomous drones and robots have made millions of deliveries, while autonomous trucking companies have logged tens of millions of miles and are beginning to remove safety drivers.”
These shifts also flow into other areas, the report noting that autonomous operations are changing shopping behaviour and impacting healthcare by accelerating the delivery of life-saving supplies, especially in emerging markets.

“According to ARK’s research, autonomous delivery revenues could scale from essentially nil today to $900 billion in 2030.”
Autonomous vehicles that roll and fly could lower supply chain costs


Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2024. This ARK analysis is based on a range of underlying data from external sources as of December 7, 2023. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.

The report also notes that companies with the greatest volumes of real-world data are likely to have a competitive advantage in leveraging autonomous logistics.

ARK estimates revenues from autonomous delivery could reach US$900 billion by 2030. Broken down, this reflects the potential US$450 billion revenue uplift within robot and drone food and parcel deliveries and US$450 from autonomous trucking revenues"

[Valuegrowth]

From today's Live Wire;Best stocks to buy in a sell off.
Mainfreight (NZX: MFT)
Dr Philipp Hofflin: A lot of people would probably answer that with CSL's, Cochlear's, and SaaS companies. But just to be contrarian, I'll come up with Mainfreight, which is a New Zealand transport and logistics business - a completely unglamorous industry. But for the last 20 years, it's given its investors 22% compound price growth. That's over 50 times.

And the reason for that is they just run their business differently. It's structured in very small business units, hundreds of them, and they're in a very egalitarian corporate culture. So they've entered lots of markets, and as soon as they enter, they start gaining share. So great business, very well-run. It is cyclical, so we hope that sooner or later we might get a chance to buy it.
I couldn't agree more. Arguably, Main freight is one of the best manged companies in New Zealand. I would like to park my money in company like this.

[kiora]

WHEN is Mainfreight's share price going to pop again?
https://stocknessmonster.com/charts/mft.nzx/

[alokdhir]

WHEN is Mainfreight's share price going to pop again?
https://stocknessmonster.com/charts/mft.nzx/

Time is coming for next jump up ...maybe after May results

[iceman]

WHEN is Mainfreight's share price going to pop again?
https://stocknessmonster.com/charts/mft.nzx/

Scary eh? But not for us long term holders, as poster can see if you change the 1 year selection for the chart to 10 years for example

[mikelee]

Running out of patience with the stagnant SP really, I paid well over $90 for mine. :mad ;:

[kiwical]

Running out of patience with the stagnant SP really, I paid well over $90 for mine. :mad ;:Welllll that was the highest price it ever got to. I'm not sure you are going to get to that again in the near future.

[iceman]

Running out of patience with the stagnant SP really, I paid well over $90 for mine. :mad ;:

Bad luck if that was your only buy of MFT, to happen to be at the very top ever when condtiions for the business were extremely favourable and it had run ahead of itself. But I think long term investments on the NZX don't come much better than MFT and I am speaking from experience. A well run company with a significant international footprint in an industry it knows well.
https://www.google.com/search?q=mft+shareprice+last+10+years&rlz=1C1NHXL_enNZ728NZ728&oq=mft+shareprice+last+10+years&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIJCAEQIRgKGKABMgkIAh AhGAoYoAEyCQgDECEYChigATIHCAQQIRiSAzIHCAUQIRiSAzIH CAYQIRiSAzIHCAcQIRiSAzIHCAgQIRiSAzIHCAkQIRiSA9IBCD c1MjRqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[winner69]

Running out of patience with the stagnant SP really, I paid well over $90 for mine. :mad ;:

Just bad timing mate. MFT was heading towards $100 and the commentators were raving how proud they should be when they become a $100 share on the NZX

About the same time the other highflier in FPH was about $35 ..and has moved since in tandem with MFT

You know what will happen if you lose patience and sell now eh …but don’t take my advice

[FTG]

As it happens, MFT pretty much did get to $100.

$99.78 on 1st Sept, 2021 to be precise.

Funny how those key round numbers end up being big physiological magnets for market participants, with the SP often marginally exceeding or missing the Bulls Eye.

[alokdhir]

With consensus of $ 2.80 / $ 3.20 / $ 3.80 for next few years and also with the past record of MFT outperforming consensus ...Bullish times ahead

In next few years $ 100 will be conquered easily

FP report citing lack of negative trading update pointing to they meeting or exceeding market expectation is big bullish sign to get in before it jumps again after yearly results

[winner69]

Hey alokdhir ….you worry me when you go on a ramping spree like this morning

Makes me ask myself ‘what’s up, why is alokdhir doing this’

Minding you I’m ramping thl eh so can’t talk

[alokdhir]

Hey alokdhir ….you worry me when you go on a ramping spree like this morning

Makes me ask myself ‘what’s up, why is alokdhir doing this’

Minding you I’m ramping thl eh so can’t talk

Only time will tell if thats called ramping or sane thoughts ...me is much simpler person then u mate ...yours most cant understand if the stock will go up or down lol :p

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431909

Shud help ...pretty reasonable results compared to what most were expecting ...they did increase PBT by $ 395.4 - 174.8 = 220.6 ie $ 45.8 increase over last half

Better then at least + $ 40 mil FB was looking for ...

Also shows improvement over last half ...maybe seasonal impact helped too !!

Nothing spectacular but pretty reasonable under difficult times and conditions ...

PS : Outlook is mixed but satisfactory for main markets like NZ / AUS ...so here also nothing to complain or SELL ...lol

[iceman]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431909

Shud help ...pretty reasonable results compared to what most were expecting ...they did increase PBT by $ 395.4 - 174.8 = 220.6 ie $ 45.8 increase over last half

Better then at least + $ 40 mil FB was looking for ...

Also shows improvement over last half ...maybe seasonal impact helped too !!

Nothing spectacular but pretty reasonable under difficult times and conditions ...

PS : Outlook is mixed but satisfactory for main markets like NZ / AUS ...so here also nothing to complain or SELL ...lol

Agree. I always like their reports. Not afraid to use "unsatisfactory" without any BS when they feel they should have done better. Despite the huge downturn after the 2 extraordinary years, we still made operating cashflows on $ 501 M, despite huge investments across the globe.
This business, despite dropping significantly from last 2 years highs, is growing at a decent rate.

As they say in the report "Despite these challenges, the peak freight congestion of 2022/2023 has provided a period of significant growth, new customers, and improvements for our business. The results of 2024 surpass the results of 2021 by a significant quantum."

Dividend same as last year and the business remains strong, despite the poor performance in USA & Europe.

A happy holder

[alokdhir]

Agree. I always like their reports. Not afraid to use "unsatisfactory" without any BS when they feel they should have done better. Despite the huge downturn after the 2 extraordinary years, we still made operating cashflows on $ 501 M, despite huge investments across the globe.
This business, despite dropping significantly from last 2 years highs, is growing at a decent rate.

As they say in the report "Despite these challenges, the peak freight congestion of 2022/2023 has provided a period of significant growth, new customers, and improvements for our business. The results of 2024 surpass the results of 2021 by a significant quantum."

Dividend same as last year and the business remains strong, despite the poor performance in USA & Europe.

A happy holder

Seems this result can still result in SP improvements when market starts discounting FY 25 expected eps of $ 3.25+ ...which is very much on cards now

[iceman]

Seems this result can still result in SP improvements when market starts discounting FY 25 expected eps of $ 3.25+ ...which is very much on cards now

I take a much longer view on MFT and happy to sit out the ups and downs.

[Bjauck]

I like the plain-talking in the announcement, especially compared to some companies. Pre-trading signs look like some don’t like the figures, despite their being in line with forecasts.

Better than 2021 results but the SP is about 10% lower than three years ago.

[alokdhir]

Market will catch up slowly ...it shud help it over $ 72 resistance ....$ 82 12 months target seems very doable with FY 25 eps of $ 3.25 + possible as per consensus forecast

[kiora]

Its a buy for future growth?

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MAINFREIGHT-LIMITED-6492059/finances/

[alokdhir]

Its a buy for future growth?

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MAINFREIGHT-LIMITED-6492059/finances/

They have fulfilled this HY estimates against all odds ...which gives confidence they will do ahead also so its surely a buy now or definite Hold for holders ...imo

FY 25 eps consensus is $ 3.19 + ...which gives 12 months price target of $ 82 as per one analyst

[iceman]

Interesting to see Maersk providing the market with 2 guidance upgrades in the last couple of months. Looks like they are doing well. Hopefully MFT are starting to see healthier earnings as well.
https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2024/06/03/maersk-upgrades-full-year-guidance#:~:text=Based%20on%20this%20development%2 C%20Maersk,at%20least%20USD%20%2D2bn).

[billkiapi]

They’re good operators so we can take along view imo

[iceman]

They’re good operators so we can take along view imo

Couldn't agree more and have been holding this stock for 20 years and will no doubt do so for a long time to come :t_up:

[alokdhir]

Lots of large transfers going on for last few days ...something is cooking ?

Unusual to have 300K volume last many days around 68.50 all ...

[winner69]

Lots of large transfers going on for last few days ...something is cooking ?

Unusual to have 300K volume last many days around 68.50 all ...

Was reports of institutions selling stocks like MFT SPK being sold to take part in IFT raise

Maybe thT the reason

[alokdhir]

Was reports of institutions selling stocks like MFT SPK being sold to take part in IFT raise

Maybe thT the reason

But some institution was buying also ...maybe they liked MFT more then IFT or had enough for both ...who knows what goes on ...

[winner69]

But some institution was buying also ...maybe they liked MFT more then IFT or had enough for both ...who knows what goes on ...

Maybe they weren't in IFT and helped their mates out by taking the stock being sold

[alokdhir]

After seeing today's KFL nav report ...it seems they sold 3% of their holding last week ...maybe they want to flip IFT and come back as MFT is not going anywhere soon ...