PIR (Papillon Resources)

[COLIN]

Huang Chung: I noticed from one of your posts - either under HUN or CPL - that you also hold some PIR so, having regard to your astuteness in picking flyers, thought I had better do some research (there doesn't appear to be an existing thread, either under PIR or, its previous name, Colonial Resources - CLN.)

The upshot was that I have taken a punt with PIROA (the 12/12 options, ex. at 20c.) Charts and buying interest look encouraging, and its always good to see Directors increasing their holdings. Was also swayed by the Company's comparative figures, showing that their market capitalisation is well below that of their peers, based on A$ per oz.

Would be interested in your rationale?

Cheers.

[Huang Chung]

Hi Colin

PIR is the new name for Colonial Resources, which is part of the PDZ/GOT/PIR family of stocks. Colonial Resources was basically a shell. John Wellborn, MD of PDZ sourced this Mali Gold project, but vended it in to Colonial, rather than take it on within PDZ. PDZ picked up 5m shares and 5m options (exercisable at 15c) for his efforts.

At the time I started accumulating, PIR was extremely undervalued in comparison to its West African peers (see PIR presentations). Although people are starting to catch on, its is still relatively undervalued.

Market cap is currently around $24m (undiluted), and EV $19m. There are a good number of oppies, but all are exercisable at 20c (except PDZ's 5m exercisable at 15c), so, at the current share price of 15.5c, there is something like a 25% upside before you get any real dillution from options conversion. I'm not looking at the oppies as a negative, as the conversion of the oppies will build up PIRs bank account considerably.

You can get an appreciation of the value here through reading the latest company presentation, released during the week. Not only does PIR have a lower market cap/oz than its West African peers, it has a higher grade resource as well (80% of 650,000oz @3.17 g/t...giving 522,000oz). Plenty of cash on hand (approx $5m) and further drilling is now underway. Also, their project is in Mali, which is considered one of the more stable West African addresses.

Presentation attached:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PIR&E=ASX&N=488159

Believe it or not, I intended to start a thread this weekend, because the stock broke out yesterday on great volume, after a short period hovering at the 12c to 14c level.


Disc: PIR is now my biggest holding and I've got some PDZ as well.

[COLIN]

Hi Colin

PIR is the new name for Colonial Resources, which is part of the PDZ/GOT/PIR family of stocks. Colonial Resources was basically a shell. John Wellborn, MD of PDZ sourced this Mali Gold project, but vended it in to Colonial, rather than take it on within PDZ. PDZ picked up 5m shares and 5m options (exercisable at 15c) for his efforts.

At the time I started accumulating, PIR was extremely undervalued in comparison to its West African peers (see PIR presentations). Although people are starting to catch on, its is still relatively undervalued.

Market cap is currently around $24m (undiluted), and EV $19m. There are a good number of oppies, but all are exercisable at 20c (except PDZ's 5m exercisable at 15c), so, at the current share price of 15.5c, there is something like a 25% upside before you get any real dillution from options conversion. I'm not looking at the oppies as a negative, as the conversion of the oppies will build up PIRs bank account considerably.

You can get an appreciation of the value here through reading the latest company presentation, released during the week. Not only does PIR have a lower market cap/oz than its West African peers, it has a higher grade resource as well (80% of 650,000oz @3.17 g/t...giving 522,000oz). Plenty of cash on hand (approx $5m) and further drilling is now underway. Also, their project is in Mali, which is considered one of the more stable West African addresses.

Presentation attached:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PIR&E=ASX&N=488159

Believe it or not, I intended to start a thread this weekend, because the stock broke out yesterday on great volume, after a short period hovering at the 12c to 14c level.


Disc: PIR is now my biggest holding and I've got some PDZ as well.

Thanks for that, HC. Its good to have your reaffirming views. And no-one could accuse you of not backing up your views with meaningful money.
I chose the options route (the longer dated ones) for their greater leverage, of course. Now, I just have to find Mali on the map!

[drillfix]

Disc: PIR is now my biggest holding and I've got some PDZ as well.

Hi HC,

This still your baby and are you long on PIR, if its your biggest holding , I can only imagine you are.

When would you say news is due, any time soon?

[Huang Chung]

I'm not expecting any news in the immediate future Drilly, they only started drilling a week or so ago.

Good to see the volumes were comparatively low today, and the share price only down a cent at the close. There are still plenty of sellers at higher prices, but it was encouraging to see they weren't going to let their stock go today at any old price.

[Huang Chung]

I completely missed this report from Argonaut Securities, issued in late April.

http://www.colonialresources.com.au/New-Releases/argonaut.html

To my mind, it simply confirms how cheap this gold explorer is, relative to its West African peers. Since this report was released, PIR has released information on a new soil geochemical soil anomaly, named Fekola, located 2km south / south east of the mineral resource at the Fadougou Main Zone (over 500,000oz).

Note: Argonaut have over 5m PIR shares and oppies, and have acted as underwriter for PIR. Whilst not what you would call an 'independent' report, I can't see anything too controversial in what they have included.

[Huang Chung]

Article from the May 2010 edition of the Gold and Minerals Gazette:

http://www.papillonresources.com.au/New-Releases/pir-gng.html

[Huang Chung]

First lot of drilling results back from recent 13,000m drilling program.


HIGHLIGHTS
Excellent high grade gold intercepts received from initial assay results including:

o

9m @ 16.70g/t Au (FRC311) from 14 to 23m, includes 3m @ 34.1g/t

o


4m @ 11.33g/t Au (FRC310) from 8 to 12m

o


3m @ 19.34g/t Au (FRC 313) from 45 to 48m, includes 1m @ 49.2g/t

o


2m @ 28.59g/t Au (FRC301) from 89 to 91m, includes 1m @ 56.8g/t

o


7m @ 5.83g/t Au (FRC 303) from 30 to 37m.


Drilling has intersected significant gold mineralisation at shallow depths from the
central portion of the Fadougou Main Zone.


Maiden drill programme of 13,100m of Reverse Circulation (“RC”) drilling completed on
budget and ahead of schedule.


Assay results have been received from the first 20% of the completed drilling which
was predominately undertaken on the Fadougou main zone.


Significant portion (38%) of results received from Fadougou Main Zone have greater
than 10 gram intercepts with majority (79%) of drill holes containing mineralisation of
greater than 1.0g/t gold. All significant intersections are within 100m of the surface.


http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PIR&E=ASX&N=497249

At 14c, undilluted market cap of $21m, with $5m in the bank. Half a million ounces to their name so far.

Disc: Holding

[shasta]

First lot of drilling results back from recent 13,000m drilling program.


HIGHLIGHTS
Excellent high grade gold intercepts received from initial assay results including:

o

9m @ 16.70g/t Au (FRC311) from 14 to 23m, includes 3m @ 34.1g/t

o


4m @ 11.33g/t Au (FRC310) from 8 to 12m

o


3m @ 19.34g/t Au (FRC 313) from 45 to 48m, includes 1m @ 49.2g/t

o


2m @ 28.59g/t Au (FRC301) from 89 to 91m, includes 1m @ 56.8g/t

o


7m @ 5.83g/t Au (FRC 303) from 30 to 37m.


Drilling has intersected significant gold mineralisation at shallow depths from the
central portion of the Fadougou Main Zone.


Maiden drill programme of 13,100m of Reverse Circulation (“RC”) drilling completed on
budget and ahead of schedule.


Assay results have been received from the first 20% of the completed drilling which
was predominately undertaken on the Fadougou main zone.


Significant portion (38%) of results received from Fadougou Main Zone have greater
than 10 gram intercepts with majority (79%) of drill holes containing mineralisation of
greater than 1.0g/t gold. All significant intersections are within 100m of the surface.


http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PIR&E=ASX&N=497249

At 14c, undilluted market cap of $21m, with $5m in the bank. Half a million ounces to their name so far.

Disc: Holding


Some reasonable grades there HC, reminds me a little bit of CGT

If they can expand there resource over 1m/oz's im sure someone will be running the ruler over them!

[Huang Chung]

Yeah, they aren't too bad Shasta.

Important to remember that the drilling has been done...it's now just a wait for results to come from the lab.

I would suggest that most of the results to date would be considered 'infill', being from the central portion of the Fadougou Main Zone. The results from the extensions and new exploration targets are still in the lab.

[Huang Chung]

Shas

PIR looks to be the same sort of value proposition as Giralia was it had an EV of around 70c a JORC resource tonne.

Trading at a hefty discount on a per resource oz basis to every West African goldie I can find. Not only that, it has the highest grade resource (for thse that have a resource) from what I can see also. Shallow as well.

Drilling seems to be going very well, so, just like Giralia, I expect to see the share price growing with the resource base from these very low levels.

If your looking for a junior goldie, you could do worse than putting PIR on your list of stocks to research.

[Huang Chung]

Argonaut Securities Morning Notes 14 July 2010:


Papillon (PIR) – PIRfect start


A maiden 13,000m RC drill program has been completed at PIR’s flagship Medinandi project in Mali. Approximately 1/3 of the drilling was allocated to the Fadougou Main Zone and ~2/3 was allocated to extensional work.

The first 20% of the results have been reported. Better numbers (all infill) include 9m @ 16.7g/t Au from 14m, 4m @ 11.3g/t Au from 8m, 3m @ 19.3g/t Au from 45m, 2m @ 28.6g/t Au from 89m, and 7m @ 5.8g/t Au from 30m. A resource upgrade could be completed by late 2010 / early 2011 and the initial drill results point to potential grade upside and therefore increased ounces. With 80% of the sample assays still to come news flow over the Mali wet season will be strong.

PIR offers a good address in the Kenieba Inlier (along strike from the 13Moz Sadiola, 11Moz Loulo, 4.5Moz Yalea, 3Moz Gounkoto and 2.8Moz Segala/Tabakoto deposits) with the potential to rapidly add ounces via extensional drilling. The maiden Resource (522koz attributable) covers just 75 sq km out of a total ~1800 sq km tenement package.

Note: Argonaut has a relationship with PIR, so not independent (not that there is anything really controversial in the note).

Holding...and still accumulating.

[shasta]

Argonaut Securities Morning Notes 14 July 2010:


Papillon (PIR) – PIRfect start


A maiden 13,000m RC drill program has been completed at PIR’s flagship Medinandi project in Mali. Approximately 1/3 of the drilling was allocated to the Fadougou Main Zone and ~2/3 was allocated to extensional work.

The first 20% of the results have been reported. Better numbers (all infill) include 9m @ 16.7g/t Au from 14m, 4m @ 11.3g/t Au from 8m, 3m @ 19.3g/t Au from 45m, 2m @ 28.6g/t Au from 89m, and 7m @ 5.8g/t Au from 30m. A resource upgrade could be completed by late 2010 / early 2011 and the initial drill results point to potential grade upside and therefore increased ounces. With 80% of the sample assays still to come news flow over the Mali wet season will be strong.

PIR offers a good address in the Kenieba Inlier (along strike from the 13Moz Sadiola, 11Moz Loulo, 4.5Moz Yalea, 3Moz Gounkoto and 2.8Moz Segala/Tabakoto deposits) with the potential to rapidly add ounces via extensional drilling. The maiden Resource (522koz attributable) covers just 75 sq km out of a total ~1800 sq km tenement package.

Note: Argonaut has a relationship with PIR, so not independent (not that there is anything really controversial in the note).

Holding...and still accumulating.


522k/oz resource over just 4% of the permit

1m/oz resource by years end HC?

[Huang Chung]

522k/oz resource over just 4% of the permit

1m/oz resource by years end HC?

I reckon it's on the cards Shasta :t_up:

[Huang Chung]

Second batch of infill assay results are now back from the lab.

Highlights from this second batch include:

12m @ 8.06g/t Au from 33m (incl 5m @ 15.9g/t Au)

7m @ 7.29g/t Au from 55m

4m @ 4.72g/t Au from 50m

70% of assays from the recently completed drilling program are still at the lab, and will relate to four new potential gold resources.

Resource remodelling will be undertaken once all drill assay results have been received.

EV is amazingly low at $14m, considering they have an attributable 522,000oz JORC resource already (grading 3.17g/t Au). Cash at bank $3.9m.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01083295

Worth remembering that 38 million oz of gold have already been discovered within 150km of PIR's Medinandi Project in the Senagal/Malian Shear Zone.

[Huang Chung]

Papillon (PIR) – Best value West African gold

A second batch of assay results have been released from PIR’s maiden 13,100m RC drill
program at the 80% owned Medinandi gold project in Mali.

New infill results from the Fadougou Main Zone (FMZ) include 12m @ 8.1g/t Au from 33m,
7m @ 7.3g/t Au from 55m, and 4m @ 4.7g/t Au from 50m. Mineralisation remains open
along strike and at depth, with all significant intersections within 100m of surface.

The maiden Resource (522koz attributable) covers just 75 sq km out of a total ~1800 sq
km tenement package. A resource upgrade could be completed by late 2010 / early 2011
and the initial drilling points to potential grade upside and increased ounces. With 70% of
the sample assays still to come news flow over the Mali wet season will be strong. ~1/3 of
the drilling was allocated to the FMZ and ~2/3 was allocated to extensional work.

The project is located on the Senegal / Malian Shear Zone, home to >38Moz. A proximal
production precedent is ~50km away at Avion’s (TSX-V: AVR) Tabakoto / Segala mine
where production is ramping up from the current ~80kozpa rate to 200kozpa in 2012.

PIR has a market cap of $20.1m and cash of $3.9m. The stock is trading at an EV of
US$28/oz v a West African peer average of US$91/oz despite the high open pit resource
grade of 3.2g/t and the potential to rapidly add ounces via extensional drilling.

[Huang Chung]

Definite buyer interest building, which has begun to nudge the shareprice forward.

This gold stock appears very undervalued, so share price appreciation always seemed a question on when, not if.

With assay results from the new exploration targets due periodically over the next 2 months, it would not surprise me if this was the last chance to get set at a cheap price.

Currently 14.5c.

[Huang Chung]

An excellent post by Tarecq on Hot Copper, that pretty much encapsulates my thoughts regarding PIR:

Argonaut (securities)

And they're doing a brilliant job. Read reports, posted on company website

They have dealt with African resource co's such as MRU. Same thing will happen to us as did to them (a ten bagger). But not overnight

We are currently in the accumulation stage. This is when sophisticated and also the smarter un-sophisticated investors get set in the stock. Main emphasis will be resource definition and low-moderate PR activity. This is the time to take advantage of LOW PRICES!

Once results are out and resource upgrade is on the cards, expect moderate-high PR activity. Then expect higher prices as brokers set themselves up in the stock. Then expect EVEN HIGHER PRICES AGAIN, as these brokers promote PIR to their clients.

As you can see we are still at stage one. I'm not selling for less than $1. I'm set in options. I'm a patient investor. I do my homework. I communicate with Alan and others frequently enough. This stock is better quality than AMX. When this is proven to the market, expect to pay 'AMX' prices. Right now we are all paying peanut prices!

Still $4m in the bank after drilling was completed ahead of schedule. Plenty of news on the way. Plenty of roadshows. Plenty of interest. Stable and high gold price. Get set

[Huang Chung]

If you like emerging gold stories, you owe it to yourself to do some homework in this little goldie.

Today's company presentation:

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01086473

Market finally seems to be waking up. Up 3.5c to 18c today.

[soulman]

If you like emerging gold stories, you owe it to yourself to do some homework in this little goldie.

Today's company presentation:

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01086473

Market finally seems to be waking up. Up 3.5c to 18c today.

Yep, I stuff up pulling my buy order at 12 a couple of weeks ago. I did bought today at 17. Looks like PIR can rushed through the 20's for the first time soon. Well done HC for holding and accumulating more.

[Huang Chung]

I've really gone to town buying these over the past couple of months....just seems such a good, yet undervalued, story.

I think you've done well picking some up Soulman. Good luck to the both of us!

[COLIN]

Yep, no complaints here. Have held PIROA since April, having latched onto them courtesy of HC - thanks once again, your Worthiness! These options did not move as much as the heads, today, but there was a big gap up to the lowest seller, at close.

(As an aside, I must be a bit thick as I am at a loss to understand the logic of their reference to the "butterfly effect", in the Investor Presentation; I realise, of course, that "Papillon" is French for butterfly, but what is the link between the flutterings of a butterfly and the creation of investor wealth?)

[Huang Chung]

(As an aside, I must be a bit thick as I am at a loss to understand the logic of their reference to the "butterfly effect", in the Investor Presentation; I realise, of course, that "Papillon" is French for butterfly, but what is the link between the flutterings of a butterfly and the creation of investor wealth?)

I think its a play on the 'butterfly effect' theory....you know, if a butterfly flutters its wings here, it may impact upon a tornado over there. So, the impacts of the drill bit in far of Mali may create shareholder wealth over here. Probably makes more sense after a couple of good reds....

[COLIN]

I think its a play on the 'butterfly effect' theory....you know, if a butterfly flutters its wings here, it may impact upon a tornado over there. So, the impacts of the drill bit in far of Mali may create shareholder wealth over here. Probably makes more sense after a couple of good reds....

PS I'm not surprised to see that philosophy isn't one of Alan Campbell's quals.

Thanks for that, HC. Yes, I've heard of this "effect" before, but it has puzzled me and it seems hardly distinctive to any single enterprise. (I've just sneezed, and I hate to think of what effect that might have on Patagonian fishermen!)

Sleep well.

[Huang Chung]

Thanks for that, HC. Yes, I've heard of this "effect" before, but it has puzzled me and it seems hardly distinctive to any single enterprise. (I've just sneezed, and I hate to think of what effect that might have on Patagonian fishermen!)

Sleep well.

Well, if it was a big enough sneeze, the poor old patagonian fisherman may soon have a cold.

Back to PIR...did you notice on page 7 that the first batch of results for those 10,000 geochem samples have highlighted a new potential mineralised zone?

[soulman]

Here it goes again. Someone wants this stock and have been accumulating since last week.

[Huang Chung]

Here it goes again. Someone wants this stock and have been accumulating since last week.

And why not?

It's such a compelling story IMO.....

[COLIN]

Here it goes again. Someone wants this stock and have been accumulating since last week.

A great way to end the week, after the depressing previous few days. PIROA up 33% today, with plenty of buyers still unsatisfied.

[Huang Chung]

Papillon (PIR) – Targeting >1Moz

West African gold explorer PIR presented at Argonaut yesterday. The Company is targeting
a >1Moz resource in the short term and >2Moz in the medium term at its 80% owned
flagship Medinandi project in Mali.

PIR has completed a maiden 13,100m RC drill program with approximately one third of the
metres allocated to increasing the confidence in the current 653koz resource at the
Fadougou Main Zone (FMZ). The other two thirds were allocated to step-out work. The first
30% of the drill results have been reported. Better numbers (all FMZ infill) include 9m @
16.7g/t Au from 14m, 4m @ 11.3g/t Au from 8m, 3m @ 19.3g/t Au from 45m and 12m @
8.1g/t Au from 33m. The mineralisation remains open along strike and at depth, with all
significant intersections within 100m of surface.

The existing resource of 653koz grading 3.2g/t covers just 75 sq km out of a total ~1800
sq km tenement package. A resource upgrade could be completed by late 2010 / early
2011 and the initial drilling points to potential grade upside and increased ounces. With
70% of the sample assays still to come news flow over the Mali wet season will be strong.

Despite recent share price gains PIR’s EV/resource oz of US$47/oz remains well short of
the West African peer average of US$104/oz. The sector has recently been boosted by the
friendly US$7.1b Redback / Kinross merger offering pro forma 2010 production of
approximately 2.6Moz Au eq from 10 mines.

[Huang Chung]

Massive couple of weeks.

Now 24.5c and a speeding ticket.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01090217

70% of assays still to come....all step out and new zones.

Exciting times....

[Huang Chung]

Oh My Gaaaaard....

Papillon MD Alan Campbell interviewed on the American version of Boardroom Radio.

http://www.osixmedia.com/media.aspx

[Huang Chung]

Interesting article in the business section of the West Australian:

http://www.papillonresources.com.au/New-Releases/the-west.html

[Huang Chung]

Looks to be a 'buy on the rumour, sell on the news' buying opportunity this avro.

Next batch of assays back from the lab - 19 holes into the Fadougou North East Zone. Very good outcome, especially the grade, which is generally a lot better than its West African peers.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01095159

Great work Alan Campbell :).

[Huang Chung]

Very decisive break through the 30c level around lunchtime today, on good volume. Closed at 31c.

Now a 3 bagger since the end of the March quarter.

Plenty of more to come IMHO.....

[COLIN]

Very decisive break through the 30c level around lunchtime today, on good volume. Closed at 31c.

Now a 3 bagger since the end of the March quarter.

Plenty of more to come IMHO.....

HC: I've been out of the country for a while, but keeping as close an eye on my portfolio as I could. What a great ride we're having with this one. And still the buyers are pushing up the mercury. Buying the options at 5c back in April was certainly one of my better decisions this year. Its mighty puzzling that there is not much evidence of other ST contributors being into this one.

[COLIN]

Decided yesterday that I was becoming a little too overweighted in PIROA so sold a small portion for 18.5c. Any gains over 200% suit me fine!
Closed at 19.5c and still the buyers heavily outweigh the sellers, so not in any hurry to sell the rest.

HC: Still can't understand why there is not much apparent interest in PIR, in ST.

[Footsie]

you guys have done well. I had this recommended to me 2 weeks ago but ignored it.
Not a buyer here though as after doing some work, it looks like 50c might do it, not enough upside for the risk.

[Huang Chung]

you guys have done well. I had this recommended to me 2 weeks ago but ignored it.
Not a buyer here though as after doing some work, it looks like 50c might do it, not enough upside for the risk.

Another strong day for PIR, and why not? More assays from the recent drill program must be just around the corner, that could potentially identify new mineralised areas in PIR's Mali West tenements.

Also worth noting that Perseus has now joined Adamus in stating they will be looking for West African gold stocks to take over. With one of the better average grades in the region, I'm sure a few of the bigger players will be casting their eyes in PIR's direction.

Check out today's morning note from Argonaut Securities.....seems to me that there's plenty of scope for the share price to keep chuggin' along nicely.

http://www.argonautlimited.com/

[trackers]

Very decisive break through the 30c level around lunchtime today, on good volume. Closed at 31c.

Now a 3 bagger since the end of the March quarter.

Plenty of more to come IMHO.....

4 bagger now....Congrats! wish I'd seen this one earlier

[COLIN]

A remarkable run. I detect that buying interest is starting to flag a little, though, so decided to reduce my options holding to 50% of my original purchase, and sold for 21.5c. But I don't expect the likely pullback to be too pronounced.

[Huang Chung]

A remarkable run. I detect that buying interest is starting to flag a little, though, so decided to reduce my options holding to 50% of my original purchase, and sold for 21.5c. But I don't expect the likely pullback to be too pronounced.

I'm not so sure Colin. A 12% rise on 3.5 million shares traded doesn't sound like flagging buying interest to me.....

[soulman]

I'm not so sure Colin. A 12% rise on 3.5 million shares traded doesn't sound like flagging buying interest to me.....

Well done HC and Colin. I also ignored PIR at my own perils. I bought last week for 30.5 but sold the next day for 32.5. I am not patient with PIR as always whenever I bought, it goes up and I sell prematurely. I did pour the money back into FML (my only reliable gold play) and with the likes of GRY and other African gold play surging, the news of PIR reaching JORC of 1 mil ounces before the years out is quite possible.

Anyway, speaking of African gold play, SBL cost me a few bob today.

[COLIN]

I'm not so sure Colin. A 12% rise on 3.5 million shares traded doesn't sound like flagging buying interest to me.....

It was more a question of what was happening towards the end of the day, HC. PIR was retreating from its peak of 43 and PIROA from its peak of 23. There also seemed to be more sellers emerging, in relation to the buying volume, compared with the last few days. However, a different picture could be displayed tomorrow, and I still have half my original holding to ride the waves.

[Huang Chung]

It was more a question of what was happening towards the end of the day, HC. PIR was retreating from its peak of 43 and PIROA from its peak of 23. There also seemed to be more sellers emerging, in relation to the buying volume, compared with the last few days. However, a different picture could be displayed tomorrow, and I still have half my original holding to ride the waves.

I still think you're being a bit tough Colin. Not to hold a 15% intra-day rise (on no news) is nothing to be ashamed of, when you still finish 12% in front.

In its short history, PIR seems to have a bit of a 'buy on the rumour and sell on the news' flavour to it. Assay results are being announced roughly 1 month apart, so maybe we get some more results in a week or so. Could be a bit of a dip immediately following the release. So far, these dips have proved to be buying opportunities, as the stock seems to quickly recover and continue its rise.

Obviously, the going has to get tougher the higher the market cap goes. What we need to see is more funds entering the top 20 or, better still, lodging substantial shareholder notices. This stock is still largely in the hands of the little guys, but this will change for sure, as they get more runs on the board.

[evilroyrule]

well i dont knw a lot but it didnt make much sense the drop to 37.5 today so im in too. I was waiting for a shake out to enter, but seemed a good time to get on. thanks for the background wrk you fellas.

[Huang Chung]

I still think you're being a bit tough Colin. Not to hold a 15% intra-day rise (on no news) is nothing to be ashamed of, when you still finish 12% in front.

In its short history, PIR seems to have a bit of a 'buy on the rumour and sell on the news' flavour to it. Assay results are being announced roughly 1 month apart, so maybe we get some more results in a week or so. Could be a bit of a dip immediately following the release. So far, these dips have proved to be buying opportunities, as the stock seems to quickly recover and continue its rise.

Obviously, the going has to get tougher the higher the market cap goes. What we need to see is more funds entering the top 20 or, better still, lodging substantial shareholder notices. This stock is still largely in the hands of the little guys, but this will change for sure, as they get more runs on the board.

I was sufficiently encouraged by today's release to pick up another 70,000 heads (at 'sell on the news' prices). Speeding ticket probably didn't help either.....

Drilling 700m along strike to the north of the Fadougou SE zone is very interesting. Too early to tell, but maybe there's a parellel zone to the main zone, a lateral extension of the main zone or even a stand alone anomaly. Today is the first we've heard of it, so it's all positive :).

At Fekola, it looks like they've intersected what might be a halo of weak mineralisation (over some decent lengths!). Drilling was sub-optimal to to access and rig availability, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a more optimally targeted second round of drilling throw up some decent results down the track.

Tintiba is still awaiting to be drilled, so who knows what that might bring when it happens?

As always, patience is required.....

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PIR&E=ASX&N=506374

[COLIN]

I hope my downsizing actions yesterday didn't cause a "butterfly effect" by depressing the price today!

(Incidentally, and referring to our earlier discussion on this subject, I have only recently realised that the shape of Mali resembles a butterfly, and presumably that is the origin of the name "Papillon" (French for butterfly) and the company's logo.)

All interesting stuff, but it doesn't tell us anything about the company's future prospects, of course! But I'm encouraged by your close monitoring of their activities, HC, and also by your demonstrated faith in a prospective bounce back in the sp.

[Huang Chung]

If the past can be any guide, the bounce back doesn't take too many days.

Hopefully, nothing will be different this time around.

[soulman]

Just looking at the general market at the mo, I know what's coming for PIR.

All have in common with SBL, CTP and BTU ATM - capital raising. It seems the market are easy to tap for capital this year so coy are doing it in drove.

[Huang Chung]

Hi Soulman

It's got to happen at some stage over the next 6 months or so you'd imagine, but I'd rather them doing it now the share price has quadrupled, than when the stock was grossly undervalued, three to six months ago.

Capital raising should be small, as there are something like 85 million options on issue that are all in the money. Conversion of the PIROs by the end of this year should pull in just under $2m, with a further small amount in 2011. The end of 2012 should see a sizable boost to the PIR bank account with the conversion of the PIROA oppies.


Issued Capital as at 30 August 2010

Capital Structure


Shares
Quoted shares on issue (m)

155.0
Quoted options: 9.8m @ $0.20 exp 31/12/2010 (PIRO) & 66.9m @ $0.20 exp 31/12/2012 (PIROA)

76.7
Unquoted options: 5m @ $0.15 exp 31/12/2011; 4m @ $0.15 exp 31/12/12/

9.0
Total shares (Fully Diluted)

240.7

[evilroyrule]

HC, i havent seen you or your brother wang chung so excited since the early days of GIR!:mellow:

[Huang Chung]

Wang, my alter ego :cool:.

Well, if I was still holding, GIR would now be a 4 bagger. Got out when it was around a three bagger.

My other BIG bet was, Prairie Downs Metals (PDZ).....can't win 'em all I suppose :(. Vital Metals (VML), where I also went pretty hard, was also a clanger.

[evilroyrule]

clanger. havent heard that expression for years. love it! i watched gir from 60 waiting to get in. at 2.50+ i gave up! i look florward to reading more by way of your updates re pir.

[evilroyrule]

boing!:mellow:

[Huang Chung]

Nice little bounce back this afternoon.

Also, the latest investor presentation has been released to the market:

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PIR&E=ASX&N=506664

Picked up a few more PIR and a tidy stack of PIROAs today (courtesy of Machine with his great pick in Kasbah).

[soulman]

Nice little bounce back this afternoon.

Also, the latest investor presentation has been released to the market:

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PIR&E=ASX&N=506664

Picked up a few more PIR and a tidy stack of PIROAs today (courtesy of Machine with his great pick in Kasbah).

Just off topic a little HC, do PDZ still have 5 mil shares in PIR and 5 mil unlisted options in PIR.

That's alone is worth about $3.5 mil on current market value. Looks like I am actually exposed to PIR prosperity indirectly, although the PDZ I have right now was bought in the 20's in what seems like a long time ago.

[Huang Chung]

Just off topic a little HC, do PDZ still have 5 mil shares in PIR and 5 mil unlisted options in PIR.

That's alone is worth about $3.5 mil on current market value. Looks like I am actually exposed to PIR prosperity indirectly, although the PDZ I have right now was bought in the 20's in what seems like a long time ago.

Yep :cool:

Now that the Canadians are looking after the Prairie Downs project, I expect John Wellborn's plan of taking on some new ventures will happen, sooner or later. JW may no longer be MD, but he is still on the board.

[evilroyrule]

hi HC, placed an order for 40k this morning at 42. no chance of that being filled in looks. options may be another way in.

ok, googled that. am i correct that ex. price is 20c (already there) and excerciseable dec 12? is it normal for options to drag so far behind the heads? in 2012 this cld be a dollar plus. does every 1 option held then convert to 1 share, no further payment required? might be an idea to hold both im thinking.

ok, maybe i shld edit before posting. Quoted options: 9.8m @ $0.20 exp 31/12/2010 (PIRO) & 66.9m @ $0.20 exp 31/12/2012 (PIROA)

question is why wld the PIRO with an earlier exercise date be trading behind the PIROA? is it because PIROA have ex price of .15 and PIRO 20? i think we can safely say are history!!!!!!!

[evilroyrule]

jeebers HC. your call to hang on was right on!

bumhole. all the piro wiped out today. no more for sale. frowny face

[Footsie]

HC
you are the legend of spec miners!

bought some at 39c. I hear MD is talking up a storm. $1.00 seems to be his target price by XMAS, and he is about to do his roadshow in EUrope, specifically in Paris. everybody loves a momentum play

[evilroyrule]

HC
you are the legend of spec miners!

bought some at 39c. I hear MD is talking up a storm. $1.00 seems to be his target price by XMAS, and he is about to do his roadshow in EUrope, specifically in Pairs. everybody loves a momentum play

i second that. ive gone all in. having fun with the oppies as well. its nice to have one share going up!

[Huang Chung]

Another up day, although it did go a bit quiet this afternoon. News flow might be a bit slow for a little while as well, at least until the drilling program commences in a couple of weeks.

In the mean time, let's hope Alan continues to do well promoting the virtues of this company.

[COLIN]

Another up day, although it did go a bit quiet this afternoon. News flow might be a bit slow for a little while as well, at least until the drilling program commences in a couple of weeks.

In the mean time, let's hope Alan continues to do well promoting the virtues of this company.

Well, PIROA has produced my first 4-bagger. Still running strong, but I'm quite happy to have reduced my holding to 50% (of the original) the other day, otherwise I would be having "butterflies" in my nether regions, at this pace.

[Huang Chung]

Well done Colin :cool:.

[Huang Chung]

A couple of down days now for PIR :(.

I guess it can't keep going up in a straight line forever.

Stumped up with two orders at 40c today. Looking at the close, it seems like my buying could have been a bit premature...

I'm glad Phaedrus doesn't lurk on this thread, because I'm sure he would have chastised me for not waiting until it bottomed.

[Huang Chung]

Profit takers have dragged PIR down from 46c to 34c yesterday. Got as low as 32c intraday, but seemed to find support and recover a couple of cents.

Hopefully the weak holders have now been flushed from the register.

West African wet season at its end, and a new round of drilling scheduled to commence mid-month.

With both gold and the Dow up strongly overnight, I'm looking for a bounceback.

[Footsie]

HC
bagged some more at 33.5c. looks like retracement over. Gold up / market up could be a good day.
Broker i spoke to yesterday said there was some pretty serious demand in the low 30's

also heard pIR are close to securing a deal over the 20% of the project the don't own.

once resource of 1moz is confirmed m/cap should be over 100m. which is 66c
less than 3 months away

[Huang Chung]

Resource upgrade should be in the 1st quarter next year Footsie, so maybe a little bit longer than 3 months, but you'd expect they'll be getting more drilling results to the market before then.

[Huang Chung]

Nice to see some institutional support coming onto the register....

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01110242

These guys also upped their stakes today in Perseus (PRU) from around 10% to 11%, and Ampella (AMX)from around 5.5% to 6.5%, so they obviously know how to identify the quality West African gold plays :cool:.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01110241

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AMX&E=ASX&N=510530

I'd be more than happy for Papillon to become the next Perseus or Ampella :p.

[Huang Chung]

Wet season's over and Papillon have restarted drilling.

This time....15,000m of RC and 15,000m of RAB...more than twice as big as PIR's first campaign at Medinandi.

Also, a new target has been identified for drilling...Betakili.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01116322

[trackers]

hmmmm, looks interesting HC

[Huang Chung]

hmmmm, looks interesting HC

See my BDR post trackers...swapped out of them to top up on PIR today.

I reckon it's getting primed for a run.

[evilroyrule]

good call HC. looks like it starting now. hope so. i have a swag of PIRO expiring 31/12/10 and no funds to convert, so a run now wld be perfect timing. everybody wang chung tonight!:mellow:

[trackers]

Yip looking good today, I was hoping to offload some other shares and jump in but thats been negatory, bugger. I was also eyeing an entry to DRK today, and WWI is performing well also.

[evilroyrule]

boom! off she trots

[asc4]

I've been nice and patient with this one for a change :P Bring on the drive upwards before the resource upgrade to 1Moz plus :)
Those options should give a bit of coin to fund the co. for a while longer.

[Huang Chung]

everybody wang chung tonight!

I wish I could say the market was waiting for my nod for the price to move forward....but alas, I think not.

PIR started to look like it wanted to move yesterday, but I'm surprised by the strength and speed of today's move.

[Huang Chung]

Good to see we held yesterday's 15% gain, even though we received a speeding ticket.

Probably still too early to hope for any drill assays, although I'd imagine the lab would be fairly quiet at the moment, given the West African wet season is only now coming to an end.

[evilroyrule]

hc, any clue what is driving this. they in the middle of or start of drilling programme arent they?

[Huang Chung]

Not certain Roy.

I think the traders are back into the stock because the new drilling program has commenced. We're also waiting on the outcomes of the metallurgical studies.

The resource upgrade is due early in the new year.....not too long now.

Noticed that there were absolutely NO SELLERS of the PIROAs when I checked today (I'm on a driving holiday, so don't get to check the market too often ATM).

[Huang Chung]

Excellent Foster Broking research:

http://www.papillonresources.com/images/stories/2010_11_11_Foster_Stockbroking_PIR_Research_111110 .pdf

Take particular notice of Figure 9 on page 11 ($A EV/Resource and resource grade), and the sensitivity analysis on page 14.

[asc4]

Thanks for the link HC.

Quite a conservative valuation.
What are your thoughts on yesterdays ann, in regards to the increase in ownership from 80 to 90% of Mali tenements. Do you think the agreement is of fair value for PIR?

I wonder how this would effect a valuation by Foster's now.

Many Thanks

[Huang Chung]

The price looks quite reasonable, but remember it doesn't include the area of the current gold resource. Mainly impacts the Mali South tenements from what I can see. A lot of augering to be done in the Mali South tenements, so if that throws up some interesting targets, buying the extra stake will have been a great deal.

Also agree about the Foster valuation....very conservative.

[asc4]

Thanks HC

Looking forward to the next few months. Testing and upgrade etc. Lots going on and enjoying the exchange rate that is reducing costs hugely.

[Huang Chung]

Yeah, some are only inclined to look at the falling POG in $A terms, by for an explorer in West Africa, that rising $A drives your exploration dollar further when it's coming out of an Aussie bank account.

[Huang Chung]

Company seems quite pleased with the initial metallurgical test results from Medinandi.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01120977

[trackers]

You still on this one HC? AGM presentation looked alright to me but sp has dropped off a bit. Don't hold, but am interested

[Huang Chung]

You still on this one HC? AGM presentation looked alright to me but sp has dropped off a bit. Don't hold, but am interested

Yep.. got stacks.

I think a few might have been disappointed that there was no 'new' info (judging by Hot Copper). One guy even posted that they weren't being 'agressive' enough lol.

The updated resource statement has slipped a little, bow probably March/April next year. They look to be spending the rest of 2010 focusing just on the FNE and FSE zones...so maybe they like what they are seeing?? Looks like Fekola and FMZ won't be drilled until early next year.

Geochem in Mali South appears to be a winner, with numerous anomolays identified.

PS trackers...My three goldies are PIR, BDR and MYG (picked a few up today).... with PIR by far and away my largest holding.

[trackers]

Thanks HC, might look at an entry to this one... Was pleased to see BDR do well today... Do you hold any copper explorers?

[Huang Chung]

Trackers, I mis-read P15 of the presentation. Resource upgrade is still scheduled for Q1 2011 and a further resource up scheduled for Q1/Q2 2012.

So, I doesn't look like there's been a slippage in the time line at all.

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PIR&E=ASX&N=517865

[asc4]

Really moving, news coming?

[Huang Chung]

A very nice couple of days for PIR.....

[evilroyrule]

A very nice couple of days for PIR.....

hc, did you see over on hc daytraders were allegedly jumping this stock. how much of todays action do you put down to that? and.....do you have any long term predictions re sp? i read somewhere 4.00???? i am assuming that is when in production? appreciate your thoughts. great day whatver the reason! look at the depth still on the buy side:mellow:

[Huang Chung]

Yeah, I heard the day traders were onto it.

Personally, I like the shareholder base to be made up of 'true believers', but it's really out of my control.

My broker says it's the day trader that push the stock up, but it is the long term holders who keep it there.

My personal target price is just $1, (mainly because I've bought so many of the dang things). Of couse $4 is possible, if things go their way. If you look at the big picture in Mali West, 20 moz have been discovered along 50km of strike just to their north, on the same structural corridor. PIR controls 25km of strike to the south. The potential for this little company is MASSIVE, if luck's on their side, and you are happy to bide some time whilst the story slowly unfolds.

Mali South could be a whole new story (and it sounds like they've had some encouraging indicators, looking at their last presentation).

[evilroyrule]

thanks. always appreciate your thoughts. best of luck although i wld ahave thought 1$ was a given! ill see what wang chung thinks! :)

[Huang Chung]

ill see what wang chung thinks! :)

Hmmm, I bet he agrees with me....

[asc4]

Really performing well, up on good volume. Again!.

Accumulation?

Is the resource upgrade going to be more like 1.2mOZ at 4g/t???

Have they hit a 1tonne gold nugget??!!

[Huang Chung]

Bang!

Capital raising.

Let's hope the discount isn't too big.

[drillfix]

Yep, for your sake I hope it is not too big either there HC.

At least once companies like these get past the 20 or 30 cent stage they seem to hold a lot more credibility than some of the Hillbilly type sub 10c stocks that give 40-50% discount.

Was thinking on buying a few today, but ended up buying something else instead.

[asc4]

Grrrrr....

Here I was thinking that the PIRO will be converted and give enough cash for a while.

Now we will have more dilution than if it was only the options.

I'll be happy if the placement is at a premium to shophisticated investors, or a spp at 60c. Below 60c will grind my gears.

OH AND I WILL BLOW MY TOP IF OPTIONS ARE THROWN AROUND WILLY NILLY... disc. hold PIROA

[evilroyrule]

Grrrrr....

Here I was thinking that the PIRO will be converted and give enough cash for a while.

Now we will have more dilution than if it was only the options.

I'll be happy if the placement is at a premium to shophisticated investors, or a spp at 60c. Below 60c will grind my gears.

OH AND I WILL BLOW MY TOP IF OPTIONS ARE THROWN AROUND WILLY NILLY... disc. hold PIROA

well i am wondering if there is a twist. there was a clear depseration to accumulate on the strength of the news to come out re the cap raising. they must be expecting the sp to head north before xmas i reckon.

[asc4]

Hope you're right ER, I haven't had a pleasant experience with CR's to date, hence my frustration.

I hope it isn't a pump...discount to insto...dump scenario. It did feel more like accumulation.

Just concerned about the PIROAs, hoping something better isn't handed out devalueing the hell out of them.

Only time will tell, better have a beer and relax this weekend and forget about it for now :)

[evilroyrule]

im not too worried. pir havent played a bad hand yet. i like the way they do things. lets hope this is another good move!

[Xerof]

I heard the day traders were onto it

Sincere condolences to the day traders...lol...just bought in, looking to exit T+3, and they get hit with a trading halt, announcing a dilutive CR - couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys.........

Long termers won't even blink, eh HC, in fact they'll be on the bid when the DT's cough up

[Huang Chung]

Long termers won't even blink, eh HC, in fact they'll be on the bid when the DT's cough up

I still think this is an interesting test for Alan Campbell.

Personally, I wish it was a placement, not a capital raising. Money in the door and get on with it.

Other than that, a CR to instos and sophisticated investors.

Any offering of new shares to current shareholders will probably just drag things out, and see the share price gravitate towards the offer price, although sometimes the share price continues north regardless.

For me, 55c or beter is the price I want to see the CR done at (60c just seems too optimistic, given the shares have onlt been at 60c or better for a day or two).

Also wanting to know if the rally over the past three or four days is a case of the chicken or the egg...

Did the price rise because someone wants/needs to take a position before the CR, or was the CR called to take advantage of the rising share price? I think the former, but I guess we'll see in time.

[asc4]

In suspension...taking a while to get this ann. out.

Could this be a large investor coming on?

Don't like twiddling me thumbs, stresses me out!

[Huang Chung]

Know what you mean. Would want to see us back trading by Thursday at the latest IMO.

[asc4]

Subst. Hold. Ann. out.

Appears that Dundee has increased their holding by buying on Market. Increased holding by 1,780,348 at an average price of $0.5138.

Wonder if Dundee want more in this capital raising...this would put a smile on my face today :)

[asc4]

22.5Million shares at 55c to Institutional investors..oversubscribed.

To fast-track exploration.

Interesting to see how close we approach 55c today.

Thoughts?

[evilroyrule]

22.5Million shares at 55c to Institutional investors..oversubscribed.

To fast-track exploration.

Interesting to see how close we approach 55c today.

Thoughts?

im picking low 60's at worst. we will back over 64 in no time

[asc4]

ER. yeah, I am soooo stoked that there were no options given out and that it was institutional, a quick and painless CR, with enough funds to last most of 2011, and new exploration targets released, no flies on these lads.

[modandm]

reamarkably good placement price considering. You can't be disappointed. Also considering how its holding up so far there are a lot keen on this stock. Still a few days to go to christmas.

[Huang Chung]

Feeling a little more relaxed now.....

[asc4]

Looks like sellers keep coming from off-screen. They are getting soaked up, but is the buy side being propped up while some-one who is selling-down? Accumulation?

Not very good at telling what is what. Anyone care to share?

Approaching that placement price at 55c.

[Huang Chung]

Reached placement price of 55c.

I've been lightening my holdings a bit post capital raising.

[asc4]

Reached placement price of 55c.

I've been lightening my holdings a bit post capital raising.

Was tempted to lighten up too, but want to see this through to the JORC upgrade. My target of $1 has been reduced to just above 80c now with the extra dilution from CR and PIRO.

IMO 55c should hold and once selling ceases it will move up again. Really want 1.2mOz upgrade.

[Entrep]

Picked up PIROA today - trading at a discount. WOuld have been nice to hold 55c tho!!!

[asc4]

Picked up PIROA today - trading at a discount. WOuld have been nice to hold 55c tho!!!

Yeah the options have been hammered post CR. It is nice to Dundee increasing their holdings again. Nearly 10% of the company is theirs. The last buying was averaged above 55c.

But looking at the drop off in buying they may think they can get them cheaper or they have accumulated their lot.

[Huang Chung]

Initial drilling results from PIR's second drilling camapign at Medinandi.

A terrific start, with plenty more to come.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PIR&E=ASX&N=523405

[Huang Chung]

A very strong performance today. Now 68c.

Resource upgrade now only weeks away.

Anyone still riding with me?

[COLIN]

Anyone still riding with me?

Yes, HC, I bought back into the options before Christmas, after having cashed up my earlier 4-bagger in October. Hoping to repeat the performance!

[Huang Chung]

Hey Colin,

I've sold a few post capital raising, as I was having a charmed run, and didn't want to run the risk of having another PDZ type situation, if some black swan crapped on my head.

Working on a LIFO basis, my original PIR shares are now 8-9 baggers...still room for heaps more, but I'm sleeping a bit better at the moment, knowing I'm slightly more diversified (for a good while, I was 100% PIR, no cash, and no other stocks).

[COLIN]

Hey Colin,

I've sold a few post capital raising, as I was having a charmed run, and didn't want to run the risk of having another PDZ type situation, if some black swan crapped on my head.

Working on a LIFO basis, my original PIR shares are now 8-9 baggers...still room for heaps more, but I'm sleeping a bit better at the moment, knowing I'm slightly more diversified (for a good while, I was 100% PIR, no cash, and no other stocks).

Boy, 100% in one stock! I definitely would be tossing and turning all night if that was me! MY trouble is that I tend to have my eggs in too many baskets - a "belt and braces" type of guy.

[Huang Chung]

You start to think how fortunate you've been, and wonder how you'd react if there was a coup, gold collapsed etc and the share price tanked.

Maybe I read too much of Skol's dire predictions for my own good.....

[percy]

I have been there.Being hit by a black swan is very unpleaseant.Colin's "belt and braces" does make for more enjoyment from the market,and better sleep patterns.

[Entrep]

I'm in too, bought the options a few weeks ago (at a discount to the heads!) and enjoying some nice gains already.

[asc4]

I'm still in, holding my PIROA's, looks really strong. I held heads in the late 30's but switched to the options when they were low 30's. I too have a large chunk of my portfolio in this. This stock has a great habit of consolidating before moving, I think we have had our consolidation in the 60's...bring on the 70's and 80's.

[evilroyrule]

can anyone tell me (or is it impossible to tell???) if the bot is keeping it at 57 is buying or selling? they seem to be coming off screen so i think sell, but appreciate views on this. only reason i raise this is we are due drilling news today or monday

57 136 11:01
57 120 10:58
57 110 10:55
57 111 10:53
57 135 10:49
57 111 10:46
57 134 10:41
57 133 10:37
57 57 10:35
57 129 10:32
57 278 10:27
57 9,070 10:27
57 40,000 10:27
56 6,451 10:15
56 1,549 10:15

[evilroyrule]

and...someone keeps plonking 150 shares at 57.5 in the sell?????????

[modandm]

its a bot selling. Nothing to worry about. Could go on for some time at the rate it is. Some are designed to drip-feed others to avoid implementation shortfall. Seems this one is a drip feed style.

[evilroyrule]

thank you. but is it possible to knw whether it is designed to keep price down or up? surely selling at 57 is trying to keep it there? if wanted to could sell down 50k to the buyer at 57, not in 150 parcels!

[Entrep]

Yup, definitely holding on to this until drill results "mid to late January"

[Huang Chung]

Let's hope gold does it's bit to keep the PIR dream alive.

[Entrep]

Got to say the SP looks ugly and in my experience any delay in the release of results is usually bad. Contemplating what to do, anyone else have an opinion or just gonna hold until results at least?

[evilroyrule]

yeah its been a bit choppy, but we still at the cap raising level, so not too bad. i dont believe they are late, either this week or next. management havent put a foot wrong yet so im prepared to hold on.

[trackers]

Gold discover at Fekola.

Looks good... Big intersections at decent grades, with balance of RC results still pending (report is for 7 out of 33 holes). Thoughts?

[asc4]

Closed at an all time high today, sellers disappeared at close...news coming?

[Huang Chung]

Well we know there will be an updated resource this quarter, and more Fekola assays are expected.

My broker is in Perth at the moment, and he tells me that a few of his colleages are really sitting up and taking notice of Fekola. I would say some of this new found interest is manifesting itself in some healthy buy orders.

[soulman]

Well, I see PDZ is enjoying this ride as well. You still a holder of PDZ HC?

[Huang Chung]

80c.

Fekola really seems to be exciting the market. Alan's been at Indaba, so no doubt has drummed up some more support there.

Take a look at the map on page 10 of the latest company presentation and check out how significant Fekola is to the other zones of mineralisation. First assays back are pretty darn good, but come from right down one end of the Fekola anomaly. You would think that would bode well for the assays more towards the centre, that are yet to be reported.

http://www.papillonresources.com/images/stories/110207_EQX_Taking_Flight_2.pdf

[drillfix]

I cant help it but to say that your a good stock picker HC.

You been having a good run there with many of these stocks becoming completely upbeat.

In some ways I have a little bit of regret selling PIR in the teens, but the circumstances were much different then and a trade was a trade.

Oh well, but Well done to you mate, its going all guns :)

[Huang Chung]

I've been luck to avoid any disasters of late Drilly....a pleasant change!

Some of my holdings haven't fired though...SRR and BWD being two such examples. But I'll keep holding a while longer because I like the stories.

(PS....grabbed some more ZRL today Drilly, at 3.2c. I really like the feel of this one, now they have their mining permit in their back pocket. More drilling results to come)

[drillfix]

I like the ZRL story too HC, being copper and all. But I guess the recent rises based on the news allowed a pull back.

Have an order in for below 3c, but will see how we go next week and gauge the strength of the stock.

On drilling or any more news, do you or anyone else here have any targets on what this could be worth approx?

[Huang Chung]

On drilling or any more news, do you or anyone else here have any targets on what this could be worth approx?

The two most recent brokers reports (20 Jan from memory) have targets of 4c and 4.2c, but this seems way too conservative in my opinion.


Already a JORC resource (indicated and inferred) of 193,000 tonnes of contained copper (Kangaluwi & Chisawa prospects only)


From the quarterly:


......clearly point to a significant potential increase in tonnage and grade for the Kangaluwi project from the Kalulu Prospect, which has only been drilled on wide spacing.


Only 25% of the projects strike length has been drilled to date.


EV is only around $45m.


Also copper waste dumps and uranium exploration in Zambia.


Looks pretty cheap to me.

[trackers]

Anyone still on this? I got a relatively good entry into the 20c oppies (discount to heads, which is good considering they're long dated and in the money)...

I understand a resource upgrade is expected imminently, but not sure what it will be vs what the market is expecting - Interesting days anyway.

[evilroyrule]

Anyone still on this? I got a relatively good entry into the 20c oppies (discount to heads, which is good considering they're long dated and in the money)...

I understand a resource upgrade is expected imminently, but not sure what it will be vs what the market is expecting - Interesting days anyway.

hi tracks, im still here quietly ticking away. res will be by months end. the recent ann was good in that it seeemd to identify further ground and strikes for the res. upgrade, and the long term goal by 500,000 oz or more. plus the fekola corridor seems to be growing by the month. so this for me is a long term play. and many thaks to huang for bringing it to my attention.

[asc4]

I'm here too, nice to see they upgraded long term production goal from 100K to 150K Ozs. Gold hitting new highs and resource upgrade can't be bad for PIR either.

[Huang Chung]

Still in PIR, although holding a lot fewer than I used to.

[drillfix]

Hi folks,

Not holding PIR myself, but thought I would throw you guys up a chart to show you what my eyes technically see.


Here is a chart.

PIR daily and weekly >>>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/aukpplkxkoezniw1op1.png



Now I am not going to say buy or sell here, but to me, there better be a ball breaking announcement that will technically blast through some of these negative indicators other wise the chart will fall over as it is starting to show both on the daily and the weekly, but primarily the weekly shows its getting ready for a fall.

Wont chatter too much about the indicators as many of them show what can happen here. There may be tests of mid line and lower bollinger bands but its seems to have started a new down trend which has begun by making lower highs and lower lows, over next week will give you the full answer to this so some of that good news better be market moving news for the sake of the technicals.


Again this does not mean the technicals will turn out as such vs the fundamentals which this stock has also shown to rebound quite hard so its really up in the air from how see this.

I will say though it if were me holding, I would not hold below 60c because you will ride it lower should that become breached, failing a bounce at 64c as a support which would then trigger stops, though also 67c would send off warning bells of all kinds.

The weekly chart to the right shows the MACD both Histogram and Signal line about to cross over, which signal is currently pretty high up in the positive zone which has plenty of room to fall to yield caution on this, even though there has been very little Red MACD histogram through the past couple of weekly years.

Anyway, not trying disturb the party here, as I truly do hope all goes well with this one for all.

cheers~!

[asc4]

Thanks Drilly, always good to get a experienced view on the technicals, not my strong point at all! I've got a trailing stop in so hopefully it doesn't get hit before the upgrade. The volume seems to have all but dried up. The fundamentals haven't changed, and no negative anns. to date. Holding on to the oppies (nervous about the massive seller to buyer ratio there though :O)

[drillfix]

Hi asc4,

Well, if volume is drying up it seems everybody is sitting tight waiting for the fundamentals to present themselves.

Funny though, how some stocks make amove prior to the ann so thus a certain % becomes factored into the price prior to the announcement so it will be interesting to see how this plays out, however I cant see this stock fundamentally falling if the if there is a re-rating type news on grades or expansion and upgrades, which technically to me seems strange then.

Good luck with this one though.

Cheers.

[trackers]

Thanks Drilly, always good to get a experienced view on the technicals, not my strong point at all! I've got a trailing stop in so hopefully it doesn't get hit before the upgrade. The volume seems to have all but dried up. The fundamentals haven't changed, and no negative anns. to date. Holding on to the oppies (nervous about the massive seller to buyer ratio there though :O)

Its weird the oppies are trading at such a discount given they're 1. well in the money 2. long-dated...

But these things usually correct themselves with time I suppose (or if the arbitrage worth is apparent enough)

[Huang Chung]

New Hartley's Report.

Price target now 97c.

http://www.papillonresources.com/images/stories/2011_03_22_Hartleys_PIR_Medinandi_Gold_Continues_t o_Extend.pdf

[Huang Chung]

Foster Stockbroking Morning Sheet from last week:

They see the potential for Fekola alone to have the potential for 1 to 2 moz, depending on the continuity of the mineralisation, and the whole Fekola corridor having the potential for 5 moz.

Price target is under review.

http://www.papillonresources.com/images/stories/2011_03_23_FOSTER_QUICK_SUMMARY_PIR_Fekola_Corrido r_Taking_Shape.pdf

[trackers]

Thanks for those HC, the upcoming reserves review should be interesting... Still a bit miffed about the lack of support for the oppies, converting them is starting to look like a fairly good idea

[evilroyrule]

tracks, i had the same problem with piro, and goro. learnt a bit of a lesson, and explained a little why hc is always keen on the heads. nowdays im not all into tails, but a split of both

[trackers]

Fair enough ERR, guess I agree when the leverage is bugger all (like in this case, 60c v 80c seems hardly worthwhile). Suspect some of the lack of support is to encourage holders to convert, and thats all good.

Happy to sit tight for the time being, though am still looking at converting and if she shoots off on the reserves upgrade I may take my profits and sit out for a while

[evilroyrule]

exactly what i did with goro!

[trackers]

Bit to answer for here, SP is pretty poor given the state of gold and markets in general. Guess its getting punished for slippage of JORC

[Huang Chung]

Bit to answer for here, SP is pretty poor given the state of gold and markets in general. Guess its getting punished for slippage of JORC

Trackers...PIR is not the only goldie that isn't firing ATM.

Word on HC is that the resource upgrade will be released next week.

[asc4]

Trailing stop hit yesterday. Nice profit. Just doesn't want to find support. Will wait for the dust to settle.

[Huang Chung]

I nearly picked up a few today, as PIR seems to be getting somewhat cheap in my view.

[COLIN]

I nearly picked up a few today, as PIR seems to be getting somewhat cheap in my view.
You could well be right, HC, but from a purely technical point of view the key indicators look anything but encouraging. I would not be tempted myself, at this stage.

[Huang Chung]

You could well be right, HC, but from a purely technical point of view the key indicators look anything but encouraging. I would not be tempted myself, at this stage.

Hey Colin...I presume you're mainly a FA guy?? :p

[COLIN]

Hey Colin...I presume you're mainly a FA guy?? :p

Predominantly TA these days, HC, predominantly! But tempered with a final coat of FA - where deemed appropriate. (I set the rules)!
Cheers - and I hope you have weathered the current little hiccup in not too bad shape.

Colin.

[asc4]

oh dear, Upgrade out, at the lower end of the upgrade.800-900Koz. Glad I had that stop hit the options in the 50's. Still has potential, but a long way to go. GL to holders

[trackers]

Ouch... I'll try and not be cynical about the recent price movements (another lesson learned hopefully).

[asc4]

Can't beleive the drop in grade, that was a real surprise. The grade was halved and the oz's came in at the lower end of the expected upgrade. I could have had greater profits with a tighter trailing stop, that will be ONE of my lessons.

[Huang Chung]

Huge disappointment with the upgrade. The real problem seems to be with previous FMZ JORC resource. Tonnage slashed and grade reduced.

Does make you question what is the value of a JORC resource, doesn't it?

[evilroyrule]

Huge disappointment with the upgrade. The real problem seems to be with previous FMZ JORC resource. Tonnage slashed and grade reduced.

Does make you question what is the value of a JORC resource, doesn't it?

Oh dear what a disaster. Not sure whether to quit while ahead or hang on in there. Hard to say it's oversold now even if that would make me feel better. They have just cut their underlying value in half. Will it recover, and if so when..is more drilling to come but we may have seen the high. If I see a change of subs an holding all will be revealed. What a stink day.

[soulman]

PIR similarities with SBL in terms with grades are quite closed but SBL has more ounces.

SBL trading at mrt cap of $62 mil at today's closed compare with PIR $92 mil.

This tells us that PIR has more to fall.

We shall see in the next few weeks.

[COLIN]

You could well be right, HC, but from a purely technical point of view the key indicators look anything but encouraging. I would not be tempted myself, at this stage.

Rather uncanny, isn't it, how TA seems to be able to detect even disappointing resource upgrades. Of course, unbelievers will say it is mere coincidence, but I prefer to give credence to the signals.

[Huang Chung]

Touche, Colin, touche.....

[Xerof]

asc4 said: I could have had greater profits with a tighter trailing stop, that will be ONE of my lessons.

congrats to you on your display of discipline - don't be crying over your stop not being tight enough - at least you had one, and it's paid in spades

As Tracker said, hate to be cynical, but the price action was warning off entering

[asc4]

Your rite xerox, it helped me yesterday on ayn and got me a quick little profit, I'm a big fan now, mite have to have a look for any posts on trailing stops, I've seen one before I think.

[drillfix]

Wow, this stock sure has had a flogging, and what a dump, from 75c to 42c.

Having a look at the hourly chart and it appears that things may have bottomed in the short term, BUT by looking at the course of sales there are Algo Bots continuing to sell this down, so that would count me out on any bounce trade while the bots are trying to continue to knock you back down.

Easy does it fella's

[soulman]

Can't beleive the drop in grade, that was a real surprise. The grade was halved and the oz's came in at the lower end of the expected upgrade. I could have had greater profits with a tighter trailing stop, that will be ONE of my lessons.

At least you let it run asc4, I still remember buying PIR at 11 and 13 cents and sold it off at 16. Well done on the profits.

[Huang Chung]

Signs of a rebound today after PIRs big fall from grace.

Picked up a few this morning.

[drillfix]

Hi HC,

Yes looking good and a nice bounce off 34c several times over the past few trading days so to me, short term target of 43.5c

Quite a few other stocks had a bounce also today, so numerous that I dont know where to begin.

How far of a bounce though? Who knows but I sense many are bouncing along with the XAO in general.

Good luck with this (again) :)

[evilroyrule]

anyone have an idea why we need a trading halt to do this? heaps of ann and results been released without trading halt?

fair to say it either exceptionally good or ball breaking bad?

[trackers]

I'd say they'll be good ERR - Would just release them with some spin or in the quarterly if they were crap IMO.

Good luck.

p.s Wish all my stocks were in TH's in the current market lol

[Huang Chung]

Most positive announcements in the past have been done without calling a trading halt. Last trading hold was for the resource 'upgrade' lol.

If I have to have a guess, I'd say it will be somewhere in the middle...nothing outstanding, but also nothing to panic about either.

Roll on Thursday...

[Entrep]

Who's still in this?

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01182044

Looks like great results

[evilroyrule]

Who's still in this?

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01182044

Looks like great results

me and wang still here entrep. wang i believe recently averaged down further so he doing very well for the 2nd time. look term holding for me. has to be!

[asc4]

Fekola, showing its potential, would consider getting into the oppies again, but alas cash is elsewhere. Goodluck to holders, let's hope that Fek is the real deal and brings the grade average up again in the next upgrade. :)

[Huang Chung]

Grabbed another 200,000 today at 45c.

You won't get too many drilling results that could top that :).

[evilroyrule]

Grabbed another 200,000 today at 45c.

You won't get too many drilling results that could top that :).

jeebers, here i was thinking that was a serious effort, but this morning there is a buy of 2 million lined up at 50! thought the top might blow off but she will march again today. more results please!

[asc4]

With results like this could they have another upgrade in JORC realitively soon? Or will that take quite a bit more time?

[drillfix]

Grabbed another 200,000 today at 45c.

You won't get too many drilling results that could top that :).


Round of applause there HC.

Your now in the money no sooner after buying. I wonder if you have a fan base where by when buy then the club follows LOL

Well done mate.

[evilroyrule]

Round of applause there HC.

Your now in the money no sooner after buying. I wonder if you have a fan base where by when buy then the club follows LOL

Well done mate.

i have beeen a member of that club im proud to say. drill check the halt on czn. eek!

[drillfix]

Just made a post there ER, dont know why they gonna wait until 24th of may to talk though, yet I guess they expect something good for a TH to be done.

[Huang Chung]

VERY exciting development.

Ian Middlemas is coming on board as the new PIR chairman!

WooooHoooo!!!!!! :t_up:

[evilroyrule]

VERY exciting development.

Ian Middlemas is coming on board as the new PIR chairman!

WooooHoooo!!!!!! :t_up:

wow. the market is giving that ann. the big thumbs up. middlemass must bring a lot to the table. i shall google him. looks like my order wont get hit this morning either

[drillfix]

Well, dont know who the new chairman is, but your right there HC and ER, the market likes it enough to even forget that there is a cap raising at 45c as well, but I guess that dont matter..lol

Plenty of buyers outweighing sellers on this one so you guys are on a roll with this one now :)

[Huang Chung]

Drilly, the "cap raising" is to get Middlemas in the game. That's how it works.

Middlemas is behind stories like EQX and CPL, and for him to come on board is quite a coup.

[drillfix]

I must be out of touch with the who's who of the investing world HC, so are you saying that because this guy is also on board now, this will also drive the sp much higher?

Seem to feel I have yet again missed the boat/opportunity when these fell back to the 30's

I see another company RXL that was previously a Zinc company is now turning into a gold play now. Are they a bit late for entering into this area or is it all about whom you have on board backing the co to make these gold plays happen. I am hopeless with names.

[Huang Chung]

I think having Middlemas on board means 3 things.

1. he must have some level of confidence in PIR's current operations and prospects.
2. he will likely build on the foundation that's already there to add additional projects
3. he has a very big following, and there should be some movement into the stock simply because he is now the Chairman

[COLIN]

I think having Middlemas on board means 3 things.

1. he must have some level of confidence in PIR's current operations and prospects.
2. he will likely build on the foundation that's already there to add additional projects
3. he has a very big following, and there should be some movement into the stock simply because he is now the Chairman

Has been sending out some strong "buy" signals lately so I couldn't resist the temptation to break my self-imposed "no buy" prohibition and bought back in again a couple of days ago.

However, I will not be making a habit of this deviant behaviour, under current conditions, as I am only too well aware of the implications of ignoring Phaedrus' charts!

[Huang Chung]

From the West Australian:

http://www.google.com.au/url?q=http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story/1/89168/Papillon-adds-Middlemas-as-chairman&sa=X&ei=lrDhTeGcFI-4vgPowNTtBg&ved=0CDQQ-AsoATAB&usg=AFQjCNHX7eFp-hBIXOwgieICtlc-ZnkR8w

[Huang Chung]

Sorry, THIS is the article from the West Australian:

http://www.google.com.au/url?q=http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/wa/9529509/middlemas-to-chair-papillon/&sa=X&ei=9e7hTbXmG5G6ugOS0I2CBw&ved=0CC0Q-AsoADAA&usg=AFQjCNFUTN4NCvevY1ZECc07WGrpyVAGgA

[Huang Chung]

A solid gold price and the 'Middlemas factor' clearly booting PIR today. Up over 13%.

[Huang Chung]

Topped out today north of 70c. A wonderful little run.

Sellers finally took control later in the session.

PDZ (on Shasta's low EV list), with 5m PIR shares and 5m PIR oppies, has also been marching ahead, finishing above 20c today.

[evilroyrule]

is she ready to go again? what youse fullas make of the 350k after hours trade at 50c?

[Joshuatree]

Shes off again announce out." Infill Drilling extends continuity of Fekola's Gold discovery over 1600m strike length" Lotsa juicy hits. Been holding PIROA for a while.

[Huang Chung]

Some very nice intercepts in that lot (ie over 100g/m).

Bought back in at 54c.

[Huang Chung]

Had a change of heart just before the close and sold out at entry price.

[Joshuatree]

Finished at 59.5c. Looks like we have momentum back and on a roll..

[Huang Chung]

PIR has been doing very nicely indeed over the last couple of months. Now 77c.

Fekola is shaping up as a likely multi million oz deposit.

I bought back in today on the strength of the latest assays. Some of the better hits were quite outstanding. Try 94m @ 4.63g/t from 178m, or 86m @ 6.17g/t from 181.2m out for size.

Market cap is around $170m, so it's no longer the tiddler from when Colin started the thread back in April 2010.

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PIR&E=ASX&N=575465

[Huang Chung]

PIR has been doing very nicely indeed over the last couple of months. Now 77c.

Fekola is shaping up as a likely multi million oz deposit.

I bought back in today on the strength of the latest assays. Some of the better hits were quite outstanding. Try 94m @ 4.63g/t from 178m, or 86m @ 6.17g/t from 181.2m out for size.

Market cap is around $170m, so it's no longer the tiddler from when Colin started the thread back in April 2010.

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PIR&E=ASX&N=575465

Out today at $1.04, FWIW.

[Joshuatree]

I sold some PIROA today(33%) after holding thru. Free carried on the rest now and a profit. Will hold rest up until midyear hopefully.

[FarmerGeorge]

Nice work on this one HC - I've been in and out of PDZ in varying degrees as a proxy for this but on reflection I'd have been better off sticking with PIR direct. Live and learn.

[soulman]

Out today at $1.04, FWIW.

Well done HC. PIR seems very toppy and currently trading at a reasonable premium to the placement price. Surely a breather back to the 80's and 90's are on the cards. But as with the sharemarket, a lot of strange and suprising things can happen.

Yep FG, PDZ has been dissapointing and are currently rising in tandem with their PIR holdings, but at a much inferior rate.

[Huang Chung]

PDZ converted their PIR options recently I believe. Yes, you would expect a pullback, but from what I 've heard, Middlemas can garner a lot of buyer support when the time is right.

So who knows where she'll go.

[soulman]

There she goes again. Can't fight momentum these days.

PDZ has 10 mil PIR ordinary shares after converting the options.

[Huang Chung]

I've picked up a stake in ABM resources (ABU), which has one of the largest tenement holdings in the country. Focused on gold in the Norther Territory. Well worth a look, especially as there is a resource upgrade coming through (probably around 3mil oz), and the stock is trading well off its highs. Lots of cash as well.

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ABU&E=ASX&N=578306

[Joshuatree]

Int to see Gryphon (GRY) minerals have taken a 6.72% in PIR and have been big buyers in feb. Share price hit $1.08 and PIROA hit 90c, overvalued i think for the first time. With the conversion price 20c they had been trailing by a big margin up til now.

[asc4]

man, why did I ever sell my oppies at 50c-ish. Grrrrrr. My portfolio would be looking a lot better than it is at the mo.

[Joshuatree]

asc4 hope you made a profit mate, nearly a 4 bagger for so far.:). PIR being added to S&P index 16th march.

[asc4]

yep brought them at 30c...sold just before the resource downgrade, thought I was fortunate then. I lost a bit of trust in the management at that stage and put funds elsewhere...the rest is history. Good luck, Fekola looks to be the goods and I think a T/O must be in the winds.

[JBmurc]

yep brought them at 30c...sold just before the resource downgrade, thought I was fortunate then. I lost a bit of trust in the management at that stage and put funds elsewhere...the rest is history. Good luck, Fekola looks to be the goods and I think a T/O must be in the winds.


--$1.39 nice growth over the time

[Joshuatree]

Its quite freakish JB with over $400 million m/c and no resource as yet!!! May sell a few more oppies soon as it could fall off for a long way with all the massive expectation built in..And here i am sitting on PGI commissioning its mill with first pour soon and the s/p stuck on a ledge; i see CVR starting a move,good luck.

[soulman]

Amazing ain't it. NMG and PVM seem to have more JORC than PIR and are valued less.

JT, I am sure PIR has a JORC of nearly a million ounces.

All about momentum eh....

[JBmurc]

Amazing ain't it. NMG and PVM seem to have more JORC than PIR and are valued less.

JT, I am sure PIR has a JORC of nearly a million ounces.

All about momentum eh....

CVR has a JORC over a 1moz + silver low cost operation which is underway 300oz leeched to date worth only 25mill

[yabster]

Any thoughts on this possible Coup in Mali- sp is retreating a far bit.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

I have been aware of the trouble in Mali for a couple of weeks.
Trouble from the north is now in the capital Bamako.
My interest arose as I was going to the Tinariwen concert in the Wellington Arts Festival and was told that the founder/main man was not able to leave Mali to play at the moment.
The rest of the group played.
Great Concert - desert blues - fender.
Since the Wellington Concert Tinariwen have played Munich, Barcelona. Madrid, Belgrade, with Antwerp, Effinge, Saint-Etienne to follow ...
Busy guys

[Joshuatree]

Lucky you Toulose. I have a TINARIWEN 2004 album AMASSAKOUL which i really enjoy, do you rate the others well? l.Hope things settle and PIR resumes its stellar rise.