TSE.Transfield Services.What happened to its value?

[krusty]

I appear to have lost about 2/3rds of my investment. Anyone know whats happening to TSE? Is it now a 'better forgotten about' share? Maybe its got TEL's desease.

[macduffy]

TSE has lost a bit of ground lately but is still about twice the price it was at its low point in December, 2008 when it had to recapitalise with a cut-price rights issue.
The big drag on TSE at present seems to be its shareholding in the infrastructure fund TSI but I wouldn't write off TSE by any means.

Company recently reaffirmed profit guidance for the year just ended.

[h2so4]

I'd hold. My take is that it is undervalued at this price. Will the sp fall further? Dont know.

[Lawso]

I'd appreciate some thoughts on where TSE stands right now. Unlike with my NZX holdings, It's a company I know very little about, apart from seeing its name when they're working on local streets in Auckland. I bought in at A230 In July '09, then got so excited by the jump in price that I bought more at A390 only four months later! I missed out on the recent Share Purchase Plan, priced at 313, because of a temporary lack of funds and now I see the price is back to around 353. Any thoughts on whether it's a good time to buy more?

[h2so4]

I'd appreciate some thoughts on where TSE stands right now. Unlike with my NZX holdings, It's a company I know very little about, apart from seeing its name when they're working on local streets in Auckland. I bought in at A230 In July '09, then got so excited by the jump in price that I bought more at A390 only four months later! I missed out on the recent Share Purchase Plan, priced at 313, because of a temporary lack of funds and now I see the price is back to around 353. Any thoughts on whether it's a good time to buy more?

I held these a while back so I keep my valuation spreadsheet up todate.
I wouldn't buy anymore at current share price, not enough margin for me. Do I think it's worth more? Yes. But $3.90 sell that'll do.

[Phaedrus]

TSE has been in a "long-term" downtrend for about a year, so far. Right now, it is in a short-term downtrend and since the Bearish divergence in September it has been in a medium-term downtrend as well.
The OBV plot gives a good indication of TSE's market strength - it is at its lowest point for over 12 months.
Lawso asks "Any thoughts on whether it's a good time to buy more?" At the risk of sounding glib, a good time to buy would be when TSE stops falling and starts rising. Lawso, buying downtrending stocks is never a good idea, but if your heart is set on buying more of this thing, TA can still help you optimise your entries by using the RSI oscillator to identify logical "buy" points. Using default values, it has flagged 3 good entries in the last year (green arrows). If you are burning with desire to buy TSE and want more signals than this, you can raise the default "OverSold" threshold to 40. This has given 6 reasonably good entry signals (blue arrows) in the last year - none over the last couple of months, though.
Is TSE a good stock to be holding right now? No.
Is holding down-trending stocks a good idea? No.
Is buying downtrending stocks a good idea? No.
Is it good practice to add to a losing investment? No.
Is averaging down a recommended practice? No.
So...... Is now a good time to buy more TSE? No, it is not.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/TSE1021.gif

[Lawso]

Many thanks, Phaedrus (as always) and h2s04. I really appreciate your comments. TSE doesn't owe me anything. As I said, I first bought in at A230, so haven't done too badly. But I guess I'll sit for a while and take my profit if and when there's a clear upturn.