Dart Energy DTE

[lissica]

Born today!

7lb8oz

[lissica]

And just for future reference:
Dart was demerged from Arrow Energy today containing its overseas CSG assets, before AOE gets taken over by Shell.

At 2 AOE for 1 DTE, it debuts at 78c on the ASX

Disc: hold 6050

[macduffy]

DTE having a strong run, up to 97c.

I hold a few from the Arrow distribution but can't say I'm too excited about them yet. Some good news might do the trick, though!

[The Big Ease]

...and continuing its run to 1.07. 50% in a month.

Difficult to gauge what its value is, but it is having a strong run.

[pedro.nz]

Trading halt this morning may answer the question as to strong run.

[mark100]

Looks like they might be bidding for AZO when you read what each of their annoucements say

[macduffy]

Looks like they might be bidding for AZO when you read what each of their annoucements say

Yes, well spotted mark!

Bidding for control, according to the AZO announcement, not necessarily a full takeover. Now let's see what the price and conditions are.

[macduffy]

Dart having a great run - up another 10% today!

The market clearly likes their bid to take over AZO, enhancing their Aust interests and promising a repeat (perhaps) of the management team's success with Arrow.

[macduffy]

It's a strong market all round today of course, but Dart continues to dart away, up another 4.5%.

Time to be on the lookout for a correction here, I reckon.

[mark100]

New Hope have purchased 10m shares on market at $1.07 in DTE. I now hold Dart again via my acceptance of the scrip takeover bid for AZO. I don't really know what DTE is worth but for the moment I'm happy to invest alongside New Hope

[lissica]

New Hope have purchased 10m shares on market at $1.07 in DTE. I now hold Dart again via my acceptance of the scrip takeover bid for AZO. I don't really know what DTE is worth but for the moment I'm happy to invest alongside New Hope

Are you referring to the announcement on 8 Feb? I'm having trouble making sense of it.

Good to see director picking up another 600,0000 on 2 Feb though

[mark100]

Yes the notice on 8 Feb. It says New Hope purchased 10m shares on market for $10.75m. Their stake fell from 16.99% to 14.81% because of the dilution effect of the shares DTE issued to pay for the AZO takeover.

The purchase was actually undertaken by Arkdale, which is an entity owned by New Hope. And Washington H Soul Pattinson is on the list because they are a substantial holder in New Hope, effectively also making them a substantial holder in DTE. Hope that helps

[lissica]

Yes the notice on 8 Feb. It says New Hope purchased 10m shares on market for $10.75m. Their stake fell from 16.99% to 14.81% because of the dilution effect of the shares DTE issued to pay for the AZO takeover.

The purchase was actually undertaken by Arkdale, which is an entity owned by New Hope. And Washington H Soul Pattinson is on the list because they are a substantial holder in New Hope, effectively also making them a substantial holder in DTE. Hope that helps

Thanks Mark- I forgot about the DTE share issue

[macduffy]

FWIW, here's Fisher Funds' view on DTE.

"Dart is a global coal seam methane and shale gas junior in which we inherited a position following the takeover of Arrow Energy. We elected to retain this stake given the value we see in Dart’s tenements, the high quality leadership team in place in the business with its demonstrated ability to create shareholder value and the prospect of near term cash flows from its UK assets. We believe these arguments remain as relevant now as they were when we initially received our shares.

Why then has there been so much downside? We think there are three factors driving this. First the failure of one of the company’s assets, Dajing, in China, to yield commercially extractable gas is disappointing given this was a potentially large asset. Second the controversy around fracking, which has made many investors wary of the shale sector in particular. Last, with many of its assets offshore, Dart has fallen prey to the discount that many Australians place on assets that are out of sight and hence out of mind.

Whilst we appreciate the validity of these negatives we do not believe they warrant such a severe price reaction in Dart’s shares. The Dajing drilling result released in January was disappointing. Despite the removal of this upside option we still see significant value in Dart. Based on discussions with the company we believe that the current equity value of the business is more than covered by just its UK shale assets and related Gas Sales Agreement with SSE Energy Supply Ltd (a UK FTSE 100 listed utility). This means that investors today are getting Dart’s Australian, Indonesian, Chinese, Indian and Polish assets for free! On the fracking front Dart does no fracking in its Australian coal seam methane assets and fracking is pretty unusual in CSM. For shale, fracking is the norm and Dart is working with authorities, in the UK in particular, to ensure that its processes are well understood by regulators and that it delivers gas in a manner that is acceptable to the community. On this front the UK Environment Agency has carried out a review into fracking processes and has recommended, following a moratorium on drilling at one high profile shale project (not one of Dart’s), that shale drilling and fracking be allowed to recommence. Last but not least, the reluctance of Australian investors to pay up for international assets is well known. To combat this Dart is proposing, this quarter, to spin its international assets off and list them in Singapore. This will help prove up the value of these holdings.

So we think we see the light at the end of the tunnel … the Singapore listing will help verify value, drilling activity will pick up in the UK and there is movement on Dart’s Australian drill program. To round it out Chairman Nic Davies bought one million shares near month end.
He is a believer. "

[drillfix]

Geebers MacDuff,

One would think you were talking about a different company completely whilst viewing the chart of this company.

Needless to say, DTE is in a horrific Down Trend from Hell it seems.

If I were to use an example of a current down trending ASX stock for elaboration, then DTE would have to be it.

Question is, will there be a bounce at some stage to offer the stock a trend reversal?, perhaps 20c maybe? Who knows~!

Of course, this is completely Technically speaking and no fundamentals are referred or insinuated!

[Corporate]

Geebers MacDuff,

One would think you were talking about a different company completely whilst viewing the chart of this company.

Needless to say, DTE is in a horrific Down Trend from Hell it seems.

If I were to use an example of a current down trending ASX stock for elaboration, then DTE would have to be it.

Question is, will there be a bounce at some stage to offer the stock a trend reversal?, perhaps 20c maybe? Who knows~!

Of course, this is completely Technically speaking and no fundamentals are referred or insinuated!

Keep an eye on DTE I reckon. If there is a reversal I will jump on board.

My concern is that they seem to burn through the cash very quickly.

[macduffy]

Geebers MacDuff,

One would think you were talking about a different company completely whilst viewing the chart of this company.

Needless to say, DTE is in a horrific Down Trend from Hell it seems.

If I were to use an example of a current down trending ASX stock for elaboration, then DTE would have to be it.

Question is, will there be a bounce at some stage to offer the stock a trend reversal?, perhaps 20c maybe? Who knows~!

Of course, this is completely Technically speaking and no fundamentals are referred or insinuated!

Yes, it's a nasty looking chart!

I imagine that FF's view is a justification for continuing to hold them in the face of such a remorseless decline. They might also take the line that DTE cost them nothing, being a bonus from AOE, but a paper loss is a paper loss whichever way one looks at it!

I shouldn't be critical though. It was FF holding a big chunk of AOE which prompted me to reasearch that company a few years ago. Turned out to be a multi bagger when Shell took a fancy to AOE and bought them out!

[drillfix]

Who or what is FF Macduff?

[macduffy]

Who or what is FF Macduff?

Sorry, drilly.

FF = Fisher Funds - the source of my earlier post!

[Toulouse - Luzern]

[QUOTE=macduffy;372274]Yes, it's a nasty looking chart!

I agree classic down hill chart for 12 months.
I follow it through watching Fisher Funds FF Australian Growth Fund very closely.
I don't know what % is invested by FF in DTE but I have been a little surprised at FF hanging in there.
That said however the last three red candles have long down tails. (Last two had flat red tops)
Preceding candle, that is four candles ago was a doji.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

In the last 27 weeks DTE is down 43%.
The worst performance in the FF Australian Growth Fund portfolio.

[macduffy]

I don't know what % is invested by FF in DTE but I have been a little surprised at FF hanging in there.


Fisher Funds had a sizeable holding in AOE and the DTE distribution was 1 for 2 AOE. So I would think that the % in DTE is not insignificant, although, of course, it's much less now than it once was!

Incidentally, what's your interpretation of the candles? - for us candle -illiterate types!

[drillfix]

Sorry, drilly.

FF = Fisher Funds - the source of my earlier post!

No worries MacDuff~!

At the time I was not sure if you were using an Acronym, as in FFS :P LOL

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Incidentally, what's your interpretation of the candles? - for us candle -illiterate types!

Usual caution on following observations - they are my personal views and approach and usual E&OE, DYOR caveats apply.

Others will be better at this than me, but my take is the doji indicates a possible change of direction but this required confirmation.

The confirmation did not come with three red candles following.

Today there is a blue candle that has closed within the 5 and 10 day MA.
The Stop and Reverse indicator (SAR) was green for most of the day. Whenever the price fell intra day to 27.5 or 28 it bounced back up.

Over the last few months the trend and SP was steadily down.
New 52 week lows and SP mostly below MAs.

In the last month DTE found two touch support at 36, it did not hold.
Then two touch support at 34 and a bounce to 36, before falling to 33.5 support and resistance (3 touches).
Resistance at 33 (3 touches), and at 31 (2 touches).
Support at 29 (2 touches) also did not hold.
Most recent support is at 27 (2 touches) and this held notwithstanding falls to 27.5 and 28 intra day.
Todays price action: Open 28, High 29, Low 27.5, Close 28.5 plus 1 cent or +3.6% on the day.
VWAP was 28.19

11 April with the new low intra day of 27 and close of 28 saw 14,818,100 shares change hands compared with a 3 month average of 4,321,910 shares... note that the three days of 27 - 29 March saw 50 million shares (approx) traded.

The RSI is about 30 - oversold - and has been for April.

Perusal of DTE web site and news shows lots of potential and activities indicated in the future.

However of the last 22 candles only 5 candles are blue.

Will the two touch support at 27 hold and the SP indicate a change of trend now lots of shares have been traded since 27 March 2012?

I don't know, it looks like we need to wait wait for further evidence.

Comparing DTE with many other energy stocks on charts - many would consider the others look better.

Over to others to comment.

Note I only hold the stock as part of my Fisher Funds Australian Growth Fund investment.

[The Big Ease]

It's worse than that.
Of the last 12 weeks, only 1 has been blue with the last 6 red.

With a stock like this on such an extended decline, weekly/monthly charting will best tell you when the trend might reverse.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

With a stock like this on such an extended decline, weekly/monthly charting will best tell you when the trend might reverse.

Thanks TBE.

Agree looking at longer time periods is better.

[macduffy]

Thank you, both.

For my very basic TA I prefer candles to other types of chart but don't go beyond looking for established trends - and taking note of the RSI. It means that I'm slower to jump on and off a stock but as a basically longterm investor that's OK by me! It's good to get a more in-depth interpretation but whichever way I look at it DTE isn't a Buy for me at present.

[Corporate]

I haven't posted for a little while now - very busy at work. However, I did manage to pick up 60,000 @ 17c on Thursday. Hoping that we just saw the bottom. $120m market cap is too cheap!

[pedro.nz]

Plenty of discussion on HC as to why this stock has been hammered for quite some time if you are interested. Might be some element of truth in some of the postings...
Company is looking to list its international assets on the Singapore market - soonish maybe.
Thinking of getting some more if the pattern reverses somewhat, but will wait until the reversal is more positive methinks.

3992

DISC:Hold some ex AOE and some purchased so its owes me...

[Rabbi]

Simple. DTE is way oversold.

But-in these times-what oiler isn't.

Look at STO WPL ORG BPT all hammered down over the last couple of weeks, but who dares to pick the bottom.

[The Big Ease]

Downtrend has been in place for almost 16 months.
This company used to be worth c~1billion and now it is almost 50% cash backed.
Is it the NSW CSG situation or has the market moved on from CSG and onto shale, where DTE is still some time away from proving up?

IMO, there are better shale plays in WA. Closer to home and drilling is imminent.

[Corporate]

Downtrend has been in place for almost 16 months.
This company used to be worth c~1billion and now it is almost 50% cash backed.
Is it the NSW CSG situation or has the market moved on from CSG and onto shale, where DTE is still some time away from proving up?

IMO, there are better shale plays in WA. Closer to home and drilling is imminent.

Up 17% this morning. At 17c this was way oversold.

[The Big Ease]

I'm not so sure that the selling is over.
Quite a few O&G stocks went up by 10% or more today, mainly due to the market bounce.
BRU, NSE, DTE, AJL, LNC & PGS.

IMO a market led bounce in the sector after a pronounced downturn over 8 or so weeks.
I think we will see more global market uncertainty leading up to the Greek election.
There are differing opinions about whether the austerity backing parties will be able to form government.
The latest is that they will be able to.

I think I will wait and see. 50% cash.

[macduffy]

DTE defers IPO of Dart Energy International. A good move in the circumstances.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120529/pdf/426jh12hthk998.pdf

[trackers]

Anyone have thoughts on DTE at 4.5c?

[enzed staffy]

You mean other than the blood on the floor from the SP haemorrhaging, with no prospect of income in sight?

[trackers]

Haha yeah well I hear that, but it is always darkest before the dawn after all

[macduffy]

Haha yeah well I hear that, but it is always darkest before the dawn after all

But beware of the change from Daylight Saving!

:D

[The Big Ease]

Haha yeah well I hear that, but it is always darkest before the dawn after all

haha great call! Up now at 11 cents.

I bought in @ 7.7 and very happy to have waited until the downtrend reversed.

This thread has died as the DT has killed off all interest. I think DTE is coming back on the radar for investors. The increased volume + systematic buying certainly indicates as much to me.

I put up a post on HC detailing its shale permits in the UK. (http://hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=2038903&msgno=9497844#9497844) This is what seems to be driving the SP back up + potential Airth & Canonbie CSG approvals in the pipeline could mean significant re-rating for Dart.


Hoping for 24-30 cents price target if things go Dart's way.

[The Big Ease]

up 15% to highest close in months.
EMA are beginning to crossover - 50 v 100 is very close.

UK government is spruiking shale at every opportunity they have in the most favourable terms - halving tax rate from 60 to 30%.
All the ministers are in on the act.

Meanwhile, strong interest from potential JV partners.


iGas is up well over 10% in 2 days (nearest neighbour to Dart in Erbistock and Gainsborough)
Gas prices going up in the USA.

I'm rooting for 18-20 cents before a JV announcement and hopefully +30 cents after that.
That would bring it fairly close to iGas in market capitalisation (about 65-75%) right now, but iGas has been upgraded by numerous analysts as high as 200 pence (currently sits at 125p) So that's a 60% increase, which would require Dart to reach about 50 cents to be on par.


Looking good.

[The Big Ease]

wow!
Still no interest....20% up today on the lead of iGAS on Friday.
iGAS up another 6% as I type (8% on Friday)...which should see DTE up again on Tuesday.

Folks, lick your wounds. Dart has turned the corner and IMO there is a long way to go on this ride.

[Minerbarejet]

got in yesterday earlyish- nice uptick looking good:)

[zigzag]

got in yesterday earlyish- nice uptick looking good:)

I have 50,000 at .056. Nice uptick alright! It will surely take a breather now. I regard myself as a long term investor, so I will run with it and see where it goes. (for now)

[macduffy]

Some good news here for DTE.

http://www.energyglobal.com/news/coal/articles/CBM_development_in_Indonesia_297.aspx#.UgAZiBqN3IV

[The Big Ease]

NHC goes large with on market purchases.
With the placement and entitlement shares, they should go close to 19.9%.

What do you thin kguys?

[ozzie]

I think if I had one of these I'd be sending it to their address to investigate and report back:

4818

[The Big Ease]

NHC seeking to oust the board and appoint four of their own.

Exciting stuff about to happen to DTE.
If they fail, could NHC make a bid for the whole company?

[bermuda]

NHC seeking to oust the board and appoint four of their own.

Exciting stuff about to happen to DTE.
If they fail, could NHC make a bid for the whole company?

Thanks for that TBE. That was some letter NHC wrote. Well worth a read. NSW stuffed DTE up. NHC will run a leaner ship . I will watch the reactions with interest. Good luck.

[The Big Ease]

DO you think they will get the numbers to push them out?

I think it is an opportunistic bid to take over the control of the company without having to stump up the cash to buy it out.

[The Big Ease]

DO you think they will get the numbers to push them out?

I think it is an opportunistic bid to take over the control of the company without having to stump up the cash to buy it out.

[Minerbarejet]

Bit of action here today - farmout agreement with SUEZ in the UK

[The Big Ease]

Yep.
Management have done well to get such a big company on board (almost twice the size of centrica).
NHC can piss off now. This management team have done very well since they revised their strategic plan.

We have the UK government screaming about how much they are in love with fracking - for both CSG and shale.
That bodes extremely well for Dart's Airth project - 85m p.a. revenue within 3 years of approval.
Canonbie - similar potential.

...if NSW ever get's their act together, Dart could well get back to 1b market cap.

It really needs to break the 16c mark as this is the third time in 4 months it has touched and retreated.
Chart is begging for a longterm U-shaped recovery.
Let's see if the market has the momentum.