DLX - Dulux Group

[winner69]

This spin off from ORI showing some strength since being listed in its own right

A demerger that actually generated shareholder wealth - $1 billion worth - the sum of the parts were more than the whole as ORI shareprice back to where it was on the day of the demerger

Still vlaued pretty reasonably and maybe a takeover on the cards should underpin the price

[winner69]

OK I'll talk to myself then

DLX closed at 269 which is post demerger high. The demerger from ORI has proved the sum of the parts was more than the whole.

Still reasonably valued - good dividends will come over time as they say 70% of earnings to be paid out and seeing that they have been stand alone for a month they wouldn't dare miss earnings expectations for the year to Sept.

Earnings grown staedily over many years - repeat that this year and into 2011 will put 10% on the share price and with a 5%-6% dividend yield thats a pretty good return over the next year .... and with the possibility of a bit of rerating lokely

I see Perpetual have taken a fair chunk of DLX .... increased their stake post demerger so they msut like the story

Also note that it was reported that Nippon paint has been thrown out of Bunnings (only put in less than 2 years ago) which will leave more space on the shelves for Dulux paint eh

[winner69]

Another post demerger high yesterday at 272

Might be keeping these longer than I intended .... strong support evident for a pretty good business .... good be a good dividend before Xmas as well

[winner69]

Just a reminder to myself that DLX should benefit from WES announcement re 30 new Bunnings warehouses in NSW in addition to the stores already planned

Guess is, by looking at how much Dulux stuff in a Bunnings stores, and doing some quick sume filling up 30 big boxes is prob worth at least $5m profit for DLX ... and then there is the ongoing sales

Wonder if that is what is behind the increase in the DLX shareprice this morning

Still holding the one I got from ORI .... doesn't seem to be any reason to sell either

[winner69]

Just a note to myself that DLX reached a new clsoing hgh of 279 on Friday

Share price performance not too bad from this ORI spinoff .... essentailly free shares as ORI not far from the pre spinoff price

Been solid support this week so obviously people think that this is good buy at the mo. One day this week volume was over 7 mill shares ... 10 times recent daily average

Chart still looking good so i still holding .... hopefully for years

[winner69]

Just another note to myself ..... DLX hits another high at 284

Been pretty strong buying the last few days so somebody likes the story

Maybe I will be holding these free shares forever

[tobo]

Hi winner, I wonder what proportion of profit comes from retail sales versus trade. (Does DLX include the 'dulux/orica' powdercoating business?).
[you will no doubt be aware that the trade part of the paint industry includes 'ordinary' painting of buildings, specialist protective coatings (eg steel), powder coatings etc]
And,
now that Valspar (american giant) have taken over Wattyl (incl NZ & Aus etc), I wonder whether there will be any competitive/aggressive business strategy change on either the part of DLX or Valspar that might have an impact going forward.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

I see that over the last 6 months, DLX, NPX and the ASX All Ords have all finished up about the same at +9% ...
However over the last 3 months NPX +8% CF DLX and All Ords +3%

WOW entering the hardware space, floods, GFC recovery offer opportunity in following QTRs ...

[winner69]

Hi winner, I wonder what proportion of profit comes from retail sales versus trade. (Does DLX include the 'dulux/orica' powdercoating business?).
[you will no doubt be aware that the trade part of the paint industry includes 'ordinary' painting of buildings, specialist protective coatings (eg steel), powder coatings etc]
And,
now that Valspar (american giant) have taken over Wattyl (incl NZ & Aus etc), I wonder whether there will be any competitive/aggressive business strategy change on either the part of DLX or Valspar that might have an impact going forward.

The presentations DLX do make the point that a greater proportion of their business is homeowner/maintenance driven rather than the new constrution/industrial side segment. Rememeber that DLX is more than paint - at also has the Selleys and yates business


Probably a lot of the homeowner painting work is actually performed by tradesman - the point they make is that the homeowner is the influencer in the whole process

They say because of this they have maintained steady profit growth for some time and are somewhat insulated from the ups and downs of the building cycle

It appears that the old Orica powder coatings is part of DLX

In their annual report they seem quite comfortable with Valspar taking over Wattyl ... acknowledging Wattyl will improve but point out that they have grown share over the last few years in spite the coming and going of Nippon and other rationalisation in the maint market

WOW entry into hardware also looks good for DLX .... Dulux, Selleys and Yates products are likely to be stocked. Apparently each big box needs about $400k-$500k of DLX stock which is about $200k-$250k margin. Cant rememeber how many stores WOW plan but 200 plus odd sticks in my mind so thats heap of additional profit for DLX just stocking the stores up.

Got these DLX shares essentially for free when ORI spun them off .... first price in July was 250 so ahead of the game and there has been a part year dividend as well .... if the chart keeps looking healthy may be holding for some time

Aussie people need to know that DLX is the only major Australian owned paint company left .... (Valspar and PPG from USA own the other major brands) .... so Aussies neeed to buy Dulux eh

[tobo]

Interesting point about Dulux now being the Ausi-owned brand in Ausi.

Dynamic is slightly different in NZ (with Resene being here) but I think Kiwi homeowners loyalty is spread between Dulux (fluffy dog adverts, which seem to have gone, in favour of the sandfly point ads) Resene (marketed to homeowners as "professional" [not!] to justify higher price) and Wattyl, Taubmans (kiwi blokes don't care about loyalty, just want a cheap paint that is technical good, actually as good as any).

Yes, Yates and Selleys also have that same characteristic of retail and trade but with a pretty big retail presence.

Not sure about Aus, but I think Orica powdercoatings have a pretty big presence in NZ.

[Huang Chung]

Dulux is prominant in Oz. Wattyl (especially with their Solargard product), would be popular as well.

Noticed that Bunnings is now stocking Nippon Paints in a significant way, which is a newey on me. But, I guess if Bunnings is stocking it, they must be moving a few cans.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Huang Chung Lots of competition in Aus. Left there in 2006. Was buying Top Grade American paint from there own outlets at less than half the price of Dulux And Taubmans etc from Bunnings etc and they were growing the outlets in Brisbane like topsy And Colour range was fantastic name a Dulux colour or any other major Australian paint brand and they had the formulas to match it. Paint was a very item in Australia compared to NZ when I moved there in 1998. So I would not like to be buying shares in a paint only company in Aussie. Maybe that is why Orica got rid of it. Possibly the American company will not cut their own throat by supplying Bunnings so the using Nippon to compete.

[winner69]

Was in Melbourne earlioer this week so popped into the AGM

Had it out at their offices whcih is unusual but a great meeting.

One thing that stood out was not too many old grey haired buggers on the board or the management team - that's good

had a tour of their research centre - hadn't realised how much was involved in formulating paint

their factory in Brisbane is up and working again so not much impact hopefully

they seem pretty bullish on the future - plenty of sales coming up after the flood

Market liked and shareprice back clsoe to highs again .... might just have to keep these shares ORI gave me

[winner69]

In spite of the carnage over the last few days on the ASX great to see DLX closing at a new high of 282 .... even hit 289 earlier in the day

Somebody was buying up

Good half year announcement last week. In spite of floods and having their factory out of operation for a while seem to have done very well

Forecasting higher NPAT than last year

Still hanging on to these that ORI gave me last July ... nothing spectacular yet but a pretty solid dividend and with the entry of Woolworths into hardware plenty of paint needs to be bought to fill the shelves up - all good for DLX

[winner69]

Just a file note to myself - DLX closes at another all time high of 287

Maybe $3 isn't too far away

[winner69]

Just another file note to myself ... DLX another closing high at 289 ... even spent some time in the 290's

[percy]

Just another file note to myself ... DLX another closing high at 289 ... even spent some time in the 290's

You are not alone.I am reading your file notes.Cann't have you playing [posting]with your self.!!!

[winner69]

Hey percy ... on a day of carnage when the headlines said the end of the world was nigh and the ASX was worth 20 billion less good old DLX went up .... and closed at another all time hgh of 294

That 300 looks a certainty now .... and more file notes to myself coming up

Maybe the market picked up on your comment that DLX was going to supply the new Woolworths hardware chain ...... that'll be a lot of dosh for them as I read where analyst reckoned that each big box it supplied would put about $200k on the bottom line for DLX .... just for the opening stock to fill the shelves up

[percy]

Hey percy ... on a day of carnage when the headlines said the end of the world was nigh and the ASX was worth 20 billion less good old DLX went up .... and closed at another all time hgh of 294

That 300 looks a certainty now .... and more file notes to myself coming up

Maybe the market picked up on your comment that DLX was going to supply the new Woolworths hardware chain ...... that'll be a lot of dosh for them as I read where analyst reckoned that each big box it supplied would put about $200k on the bottom line for DLX .... just for the opening stock to fill the shelves up
Yeah right.!!!! Congratulations are in order.To have a share that sets a new high on such a low day,you have certainly done well.!!! you are allowed to continue to post to yourself .!!!

[winner69]

In spite of the carnage on the ASX over the last week another new high for DLX

Closed at 296 ... high for the day as well which was good

That 300 only a day or 2 away

Thanks ORI for spinning this off last July .... floated at 250 so nealy 20% plus divies is pretty good .... might have to hold longer

[percy]

Tried to help the SP the other day by buying a 4litre of timbercryal.funny guthrie Bowron were cheaper than bunnings and dulux.

[winner69]

Tried to help the SP the other day by buying a 4litre of timbercryal.funny guthrie Bowron were cheaper than bunnings and dulux.

Well done percy

Interesting about GB being cheaper eh

Bunnings good sales growth figures announced yesterday should help DLX as they are their biggest customer

[percy]

Well done percy

Interesting about GB being cheaper eh

Bunnings good sales growth figures announced yesterday should help DLX as they are their biggest customer
I rang all three.Dulux $121 Bunnings $108 GB $113 and 20% disc brought it down to $91. All prices are approx.So had not GB offered 20% disc Bunnings would have been cheaper.did not try Placemakers.
I was reading somewhere today Bunnings thought Metcash run Mitre 10 would be bigger competitors than WW.Tough business.

[winner69]

Good solid result announced this week .... shareprice should head back to 300 in the next few months

NZ performance didn't look too good .... like Fletchers / Steel and Tube and Cavalier anything to do with housing sees reduced profits .... and like them DLX is waiting for Chch rebuild to get underway in earnest

[percy]

Doing my bit to help you.Brought a 4 litre and an 8 litre of Dulux at Bunnings this morning.
ChCh rebuild.A plasterer who is skim coating a kitchen and lounge for me, told me he has stopped working for one firm as they owe him
$40,000 and they are inturn owed over $70,000 by Fletchers.The trades are sick of not getting paid.
The rebuild getting underway in earnest still seems some time away.It will happen.

[winner69]

Finally sold the shares that ORI gave me last year ... just after the ASM the other day

I didn't rally like it when they said H` earnings will be a bit less than last year but H2 will be pretty good and we will see earnings growth fro the full year ,,, how often do we hear that these days

They talk about how reilisient they are and that they are not badly affected by the ups and downs in the housing cycle but it is the way that homeowners seem to not spending at all that sent out the alarm bells to me.

A lot of their sales are sort of retail and I feel that paint etc is one of these things that comes after food etc ... and it easy to defer that decorating job if cash is a bit tight

Probably wrong but at least my cash .... maybe there is a bit of hope that H2 will bring them through ... but as one of my mentors once told me hope is not a strategy

[percy]

I think you are right.I have been surprised they have stayed up so long.As you point out a paint job is easily put off .

[winner69]

Might have made a mistake .... I hadn't noticed the MD said 'well positioned for growth' not once .... but twice

Bugger ...... certain to go up now ... just like today

[winner69]

I think you are right.I have been surprised they have stayed up so long.As you point out a paint job is easily put off .

Percy .... looks I have got this one wrong

Been solid buying the last week or so and even hit 311 today

Maybe somebody like Akzo hanging around and about to buy them out so they can take the Dulux brand truly world wide .... was always a possibility .... and that would leave all the majors in this part of the world owned by the big players in Akzo, PPG and Valspar

[percy]

Yes,both got it wrong.!!
I had a quick look at the chart and they certainly look very strong.
I am still uneasy on Australian manufacturing,strong Aussie $ making imports cheaper.
So why the strength.? Sorry but I can"t see any reason for it.
Dealing with "the majors" like Bunnings,WW etc leave little profit for the manufacturer.Damed if you supply them,damed if you don't.!!!
I just wonder about the value of the brand.I was at Mall today and parked next to a Christchurch city council van.Must have been paint division and noted lots of "Tradex" paint tins.Don't know who makes tradex.Then I see painters vans with Resene decals,and your mate Warren Buffett owns Benjamin Moore.He may have given up on EBO and now chasing DLX. lol .Yeah right.!!!

[winner69]

Jeez another all time high (close) aty 310 and on above average volumes

Something up methinks .... so took a bit of a punt with some of the cash float and bought more .... if somebody interested 20% plus worthwhile

Percy - that tradex stuff you saw is Wattyl paint. I unbderstand plenty of paint being used in Christchurch as a result of the fix up

[winner69]

Never underestimate the power and influence of analysts and the broker

Merrill come out with a valuation in excess of 400 and use terms like unappreciated growth .....and DLX takes off and into the 320's she goes

[winner69]

Since announcing they want Al's share price up to 330 odd. .... Better prospects ahead with buntings expansion and lower input costs say merril

When or if the ALS takeover goes ahead I think DLX wil head quickly up o 4 bucks. Pcy will tell you what happened to EBO when they bought Masterpet

Keep an eye on

[winner69]

Might buy some more DLX now the ALzs takeover looks a cert

Add that in and DLX should be over 4 bucks .....good gains from here .....look what happened to EBO nce they bought something

[winner69]

Up 3% in the lad 2 days and new highs

That 400 not to far off

Get in before the big gains happen .....ALS is a step change in profitability and the share price will follow

[winner69]

Record high close of 351

Heading towards 400 so still time to get on and make a few bob

[winner69]

Record high close of 351

Heading towards 400 so still time to get on and make a few bob

Percy having his quake repairs done in Resene hasn't affected the DLX shareprice

Alesco takeover all but done ....... still the platform to take the shareprice over 400

In a market not that brillant a pretty good full year result from DLX as well

No reason why that chart casn't continue onwards and upwards

Glad I bought back in about 300 (the Alesco bid was the trigger .... we all know what happen when EBO took something over don't we)

[percy]

good on you winner69.
Hope to move back home on Thursday,painters [the resene traitors] should be finnished.
Thought DLX price may have come back a bit with DLX in Aussie having problems with advertising their paint kept houses cooler when it had not been proved.Yeah right.

[winner69]

Well over 400 by Xmas by the way it going last couple of days

[winner69]

That 4 bucks only a day or so away ......and most of those alesco profits to be built into the share price yet

[winner69]

so 4 bucks has been reached and not some pie in the sky number

no reason should not continue to steadily increase from here ... alesco has to bring something to the party

at least you listened to yourself winner .... nobody else seems interested .... but keep the diary going so we can look back in a years time what you were thinking winner

[Dej]

at least you listened to yourself winner .... nobody else seems interested .... but keep the diary going so we can look back in a years time what you were thinking winner


Your a winner, winner! :p

[winner69]

so 4 bucks has been reached and not some pie in the sky number

no reason should not continue to steadily increase from here ... alesco has to bring something to the party

at least you listened to yourself winner .... nobody else seems interested .... but keep the diary going so we can look back in a years time what you were thinking winner

close at 436 today ..... another all time high ..... still no reasons to doubt why it should still not steadily increase more

that alesco acquisition should help profits over the enxt few years

macquaries put it on a one of their special lists ..... like their top 10 prospects

up up and away

[percy]

close at 436 today ..... another all time high ..... still no reasons to doubt why it should still not steadily increase more

that alesco acquisition should help profits over the enxt few years

macquaries put it on a one of their special lists ..... like their top 10 prospects

up up and away

Nice to see they put a bit of "GLOSS" in your day.

[winner69]

DLX doing an EBO .....take something over and the share price keeps going up

Went to 457 earlier

But then again most things are going up so maybe DLX not that special after all

Reckon 5 bucks by end of April per half year announcement

[winner69]

Maybe 5 bucks earlier than I thought ....DLX saying all going to plan .....and alesco is going to make even more than they thought ...good stuff

Chart looking good still

[winner69]

somebody wanted an exponential chart on the asx .... XRO a good example but this looks pretty good ... but i fear not real exponential, now or never, but steady as she goes 50% every six months or so pretty good

[winner69]

Close yesterday 457 a all time record close .....has got to 460 intraday

Appears to be plenty of gas in the balloon still. The Alesco deal looks like delivering a hi level of synergies to add to the underlying performance of that business

Already said half year ok ......full story next month .....could be interesting

[winner69]

Wesfarmers report Bunnings had strong growth last quarter

Good guide as to dulux growth

Half year next month .... Should be good

[winner69]

Half year results tomorrow

Probably a bit more than last year ....been signalled

Market looking to hear how much alesco going to bring in this year so they can take a guess on the full year

Reckon that 5 bucks just a tad too far at the moment

Omg ... That's saying it fully valued at the mo

[winner69]

Good solid result

Solid buying later part of day ....the analyst briefings must have been pretty positive eh

Allowed to tell the secrets to the insto analysts but not much effort to talk to the likes of me .... Not fair I reckon

Just have to read between the lines

Maybe 5 bucks still on the cards

[winner69]

Solid buying today and into the 470s

Maybe 5 bucks not too far away

Dear Winner - hang in there mate, you doing ok so keep on the train

[percy]

Solid buying today and into the 470s

Maybe 5 bucks not too far away

Dear Winner - hang in there mate, you doing ok so keep on the train

Thought the train had run out of steam,but still some puff in the engine.Enjoy your ride.

[winner69]

DLX doing an EBO .....take something over and the share price keeps going up

Went to 457 earlier

But then again most things are going up so maybe DLX not that special after all

Reckon 5 bucks by end of April per half year announcement

Note to winner - last time you got of the bus you had to pay a bit more to get back on. Getting on again at just over 3 bucks was a good move winner so don't make the same mistake by getting off a moving bus, especially one going full speed forward.

Winner - it was up 4% odd today and nearly 480. That 5 bucks is so close it'll get there for sure. Just remember winner from 3 bucks to 5 bucks is close on 66% gain in just over a year.

But keep an eye on that chart winner and remember what mr p said - the market giveth but the market taketh away if you don't keep an eye on it

[winner69]

I see from H1 results sales in nz up 20% and profit up 45% on last year

That's fantastic result - must be Christchurch stuff and increased building activity.

Maybe indicative of what FBU can achieve once things really get moving

And if Percy's painters hadn't used resene it would have been even better

[winner69]

Hey winner ...it's got into the 490s for a while. Reckon you could be right about that 5 bucks

Please promise not to start talking about 6 bucks

[percy]

Hey winner ...it's got into the 490s for a while. Reckon you could be right about that 5 bucks

Please promise not to start talking about 6 bucks

Start talking when ever you want.We are all listening.!!!
Drove past a big Dulux outlet on Halswell Junction road this morning.Impressive looking set up.

[winner69]

jeez they tell Woolworths owned Masters to take a running jump and share price falls 4%

Brave move but they say all the good for the long run

Bought some more in the panic

[winner69]

Recovering nicely after the dip back to 400

Is 466 now and back on track to 500 and then some

Still upside from alesco acquisition methinks

[winner69]

Wow ...close above 470

As noted on the FBU thread the Wabbot lead housing boom good for DLX

So 5bucks soon and heading to 6 bucks

[winner69]

Strong end to week is good sign and a close at 490


I think this is a all time record high close ..... whoopee

The 5 bucks will have to wait another week

End of financial year coming up, a boomer of a result maybe

[baller18]

Strong end to week is good sign and a close at 490


I think this is a all time record high close ..... whoopee

The 5 bucks will have to wait another week

End of financial year coming up, a boomer of a result maybe

Only if I knew about this forum 2 years ago...

[winner69]

Hey winner .....broken through the 5 bucks mark.

I think Aussie households are happier now with abbot leading the country ....more activity coming up for the likes of DLX

Well done winner

[winner69]

OMG WINNER ..... ITS ALRAEDY BROKEN THROUGH 520 - up 4% to 5% in last couple of days since your last post

If I was you winner I'd be looking at 6 bucks by Chtistmas

[baller18]

OMG WINNER ..... ITS ALRAEDY BROKEN THROUGH 520 - up 4% to 5% in last couple of days since your last post

If I was you winner I'd be looking at 6 bucks by Chtistmas

Hmmm, have been thinking about putting some money into DLX lately...

[winner69]

Hmmm, have been thinking about putting some money into DLX lately...

Good old linear regression channel chart for you baller. The uptrend shown is at 50% pa .... not too bad for a boring old industrial who makes paint and garage doors and glues is it.

Don't these charts look a lot better going up .... better than those ones like DIL eh

However some punters say a close above the top channel line is a sell signal ... maybe for a short term trader .... I think I will ride it all the way and only keep an eye on the bottom channel line

DLX report early November .... way punters are buying must be a good result coming up .... or something else exciting

[winner69]

Full year announcement Wednesday ......holding pattern until then methinks

I reckon a solid full year profit as per guidance but if you read between the lines and note the comments in the analyst presentations one might just see a pretty positive outlook .....and that the alesco acquisition really firing up

About 515 now ...... Maybe 550 by Xmas

[winner69]

Great full year result. Npat up 18% and divie up 17%

Looking forward there's another 2 months of alesco profit to come, market conditions looking better in Australia and alesco synergies will help. So expect heaps more (they just said more ...the heaps is my bit) ....in 2014. Npat 94m this year so lets say 120m in 2014. Share price target 650 I reckon .....that will be ok for me

Looks like New Zealand helped out heaps .....huge increase in profit .....pity fletchers can't do that as extra building activity seems the reason

[winner69]

You be happy today winner - DLX at an all time high today .... market must love that outlook

Oh by the way winner - DLX was 32 on that list that KW posted on another thread .... just missed the Top 30 but never mind

Catch up again when DLX hits 6 bucks

[baller18]

U r so lonely on this thread winner! lol!

[Joshuatree]

An excellent post by camden on H/C re Dulux, looks like a n easy to sleep at nite stock for the longterm winner.

[winner69]

Omg winner ....just had a look at the prices and DLX is 564

You could be right .....6 bucks by Xmas on the cards

When will this stop going up?

[winner69]

An excellent post by camden on H/C re Dulux, looks like a n easy to sleep at nite stock for the longterm winner.

Was a good post

Punters should look at his list o criteria and apply it to say CAV

[winner69]

From hotcopper .... Love it

Poised for breakout over 5.48. Technical buying signal at au.stoxline website with the 6.401 target price in six months.

Omg 6.40 in six months .... I love TA

[soulman]

From hotcopper .... Love it

Poised for breakout over 5.48. Technical buying signal at au.stoxline website with the 6.401 target price in six months.

Omg 6.40 in six months .... I love TA

Especially going ex-dividends of 9.5 cents today. Extraordinary!!

[born2invest]

Hi Winner69,

When did you last purchase shares in DLX?

[winner69]

ORI gave me the first lot of DLX shares when they spun it off in a demerger. The ORI shareprice recovered to the per demerger price so I sold them, meaning the DLX ones were essentially free.

Sold those late 2011 after the AGM

Things started to look brighter for them so bought some more in feb/mar 12 sub : bucks

Bought heaps at about 330-340 in aug/sep when they said they were going to buy alesco

Rest is history

Pretty richly valued but more upside methinks ...but keep an eye on that wiggly line on a piece of paper as you described it the other day

[born2invest]

Bought heaps at about 330-340 in aug/sep when they said they were going to buy alesco


When I looked at them before they made the decision to pursue Alesco, I went off DLX as I didn't see the Alesco purchase as a good one. Bit of a mistake on my part by the looks, but it is always easy to say that in hindsight.


keep an eye on that wiggly line on a piece of paper as you described it the other day


I think the term used was squiggly :p

[winner69]

Close today about an all time high.

Been a great long term trade within the channels at 0.8% a week over 10 months.

Almost as good as RYM and SUM. Need these long termers to keep chugging away though a bit boring compared to the recent wins in the spec sectors

But one day even DLX will need to be sold .... hopefully not for a while yet

[winner69]

Hells bells winner, you be happy tonite

DLX closes at 570

Sometimes being good associated with the building sector, most in that had a brillant day

A lot going on .....all need paint, garage doors and construction chemicals

Keep this up 6 bucks soon and you will be touting 7 bucks by Xmas

[winner69]

Another all time high closing price at 573

Now in the ASX100 so one of the big boys now

Half year announcement early May should show increasing profits and take the price over 6 bucks

Boring as eh winner bit the long uptrend continues

[percy]

Another all time high closing price at 573

Now in the ASX100 so one of the big boys now

Half year announcement early May should show increasing profits and take the price over 6 bucks

Boring as eh winner bit the long uptrend continues

Well done.
Wondered where you were getting the money for the new jacket? lol.

[winner69]

Getting back to all time highs again

Half year announcement soon. Guidance said it should be OK. Hope so and good commentary for the rest of the year which will be good enough to take the share price over 600

Another possibility - now Alesco acquisition all bedded down maybe another on the card.

Updated chart below. Still within the channels so good news but needs a boost.

Often with shares time is their worst enemy. DLX price not really gone anywhere for a few months. Still technically in that long term uptrend but if price continues to hover around present mark 'time' alone will break that uptrend.

This happens when price gets ahead of itself. DLX on a PE over 20 so needs to pull finger out to justify it .... and encourage the share price to head up again.

Whatever I will hold to the half year and hopefully 6 bucks and then 7 bucks beckons and I will remain a shareholder ....otherwise out she goes.

[winner69]

Close at high for the day at 583 ......record close

Half year announcement next Monday

Methinks a bit more buying before then ,..... so 6 bucks on the cards

Double you money in 2 years .... cant do much better than that

But profits haven't doubled .... good old bull market and multiple expansion will do fine

[winner69]

Hey winner

Did you realise that from 2010 (spun off that year) to 2013 the share price increased by 95% but only 33% of that came from increased profits - the bulk of from PE expansion.

The +ve market sentiment does wonders eh

Hope their full year guidance next Monday is more than the usual 'ahead of last year' crap they usually come out with. They need to have a 20% eps growth sort of number or I think the shareprice will get hammered

Let's see what happens eh

[soulman]

Hey winner

Did you realise that from 2010 (spun off that year) to 2013 the share price increased by 95% but only 33% of that came from increased profits - the bulk of from PE expansion.

The +ve market sentiment does wonders eh

Hope their full year guidance next Monday is more than the usual 'ahead of last year' crap they usually come out with. They need to have a 20% eps growth sort of number or I think the shareprice will get hammered

Let's see what happens eh

Hey winner....suffering some sort of schizo are we?

Just the other way, the demerged ORI profits was disappointing today.

[winner69]

At 583 DLX is 27 times last years normalised npat - high

So need at least 20% eps increase in 2015 to justify current shareprice, even greater eps increase if I visions of a $7 shareprice later this year

As such unless H1 earnings are 55m as a minimum there will be pressure on the shareprice

Go on Dulux - you can do it

[winner69]

Hey winner....suffering some sort of schizo are we?

Just the other way, the demerged ORI profits was disappointing today.

What happens when you keep telling a good story to yourself

Yes ORI a bit disappointing

When they cast of DLX the ORI shareprice was $25 something. DLX floated at $2.50 so ORI ain't been a good investment over the last 4 years or so has it (current price $21)

[soulman]

What happens when you keep telling a good story to yourself

Yes ORI a bit disappointing

When they cast of DLX the ORI shareprice was $25 something. DLX floated at $2.50 so ORI ain't been a good investment over the last 4 years or so has it (current price $21)

DLX should report a solid result, judging by CSR result today.....CSR got smashed today probably because they went up so high before the result.

Housing construction has been solid here in WA. I can't believe how many new houses and apartment is being built here. Seriously?? Maybe a population boom. I drove all over the place today and I see so many housing and apartment construction. Not to mention massive construction on our airport and a 1 billion dollar sports stadium to come.

Live in the present moment. We can't tell the future. CBA profits today tells us people are borrowing and the banks are lending. DLX should do well. Alesco, their subsidiary should also perform well. Looking forward to their profit result come Monday. Also PRG result come Tuesday.

[winner69]

At 583 DLX is 27 times last years normalised npat - high

So need at least 20% eps increase in 2015 to justify current shareprice, even greater eps increase if I visions of a $7 shareprice later this year

As such unless H1 earnings are 55m as a minimum there will be pressure on the shareprice

Go on Dulux - you can do it

Half Year is $56m and a bit better than the $55m I mentioned. Earnings up 36% and Dividend up 25%

Nz a star performer from the segments result.

Pretty solid result overall. A lot of the 36% from 6 months of Alesco v 4 in pcp

Shareprice will probably go down in short term but hopefully the long term uptrend will stay in place

Real wimps are management. Up 36% in H1 and guidance is FY will be better than last year. Come on guys get real and tell us what you really think

[percy]

Leave the wimps alone.!!!
They are doing a wonderful job for you.!!! lol.

[winner69]

Reckon full year earnings will be 116m.

Just over 30 cents a share

Could support a 650 shareprice by Xmas

Really need another acquisition to pump it up to 800

[winner69]

Surprised price has held up since the announcement

Pretty richly valued but will hang in there a bit longer ...... at least as long as that long term uptrend is in intact

DLX still susceptible to market sentiment - both from a company performance and shareprice perspective. So keeping a close eye on those charts

[winner69]

Oh dear - DLX fallen through the lower channel line

I an old sentimental thing so might just hold on for a few more days to see whether just an aberration.

Since H1 announcement that came with no guidance the price held up for a few days but the gurus appear to have gone through the numbers and maybe think better bets somewhere else, ie price weakness

DLX chart looking like many at the moment .... long up trend ended and price flattening out before starting to drift down. Price action that in the past has been a prelude to the start of a real market correction. That's what history says but maybe this time is different

[soulman]

Oh dear - DLX fallen through the lower channel line

I an old sentimental thing so might just hold on for a few more days to see whether just an aberration.

Since H1 announcement that came with no guidance the price held up for a few days but the gurus appear to have gone through the numbers and maybe think better bets somewhere else, ie price weakness

DLX chart looking like many at the moment .... long up trend ended and price flattening out before starting to drift down. Price action that in the past has been a prelude to the start of a real market correction. That's what history says but maybe this time is different

Looks like the construction and housing industry have peaked.

I suspect the end of the trend could be over, but is there a chance for swing trading?

[winner69]

DLX chart well and truly broken now .... the long multiyear uptrend is over.

No news likely before October/November so at best it drift around current levels but there is a downward bias.

If they do go out and buy something new plenty of time to get back on board.

Amazing how many charts like this. RYM and DLX gone - feels like the bubble is slowly deflating

[winner69]

Shareprice hanging in there, like many at the moment

I not very disciplined these days and dtill hold ....hope is a stratgy isnt it

Good article in the afr today
http://www.afr.com/p/markets/seek_rea_among_tomorrow_blue_chip_jDNMc2Lf9LdIlhVB guYfOM

Dulux rated as one of 10 blue chips of the future. Pretty esteemed names on that lst as well.

[Jay]

Talking to yourself again W69!

Wish I bought some a long time ago.

Will watch - Keep talking, some are listening even if it may not appear so.

[winner69]

DLX chart not just broken but really broken

So all sold over the last week (watch it boom now h ha)

Ill discipline and a strategy of hope has cost me as the price has gone nowhere for the best part of a year. Never mind, what happens when you fall in love and can't bear to part ways

I buy again the day they announce another big acquisition. The acquisition of Alesco keep the uptrend going for an extra year or so.

Annual profit due mid November. I guess the market already has a good idea what it is. But if it is a boomer time to get back in again and the market starts to rerate it. But PE is already about 20.

Long uptrends in the likes of RYM and DLX over. Maybe the top of this cycle is well and truly over and one needs patience to buy after the next market correction / collapse

[percy]

DLX chart not just broken but really broken

So all sold over the last week (watch it boom now h ha)

Ill discipline and a strategy of hope has cost me as the price has gone nowhere for the best part of a year. Never mind, what happens when you fall in love and can't bear to part ways

I buy again the day they announce another big acquisition. The acquisition of Alesco keep the uptrend going for an extra year or so.

Annual profit due mid November. I guess the market already has a good idea what it is. But if it is a boomer time to get back in again and the market starts to rerate it. But PE is already about 20.

Long uptrends in the likes of RYM and DLX over. Maybe the top of this cycle is well and truly over and one needs patience to buy after the next market correction / collapse

Do not take out your grumpiness on Heartland thread.
You still made heaps with your DLX love affair.!

[noodles]

DLX chart not just broken but really broken

So all sold over the last week (watch it boom now h ha)

Ill discipline and a strategy of hope has cost me as the price has gone nowhere for the best part of a year. Never mind, what happens when you fall in love and can't bear to part ways

I buy again the day they announce another big acquisition. The acquisition of Alesco keep the uptrend going for an extra year or so.

Annual profit due mid November. I guess the market already has a good idea what it is. But if it is a boomer time to get back in again and the market starts to rerate it. But PE is already about 20.

Long uptrends in the likes of RYM and DLX over. Maybe the top of this cycle is well and truly over and one needs patience to buy after the next market correction / collapse

It's holding up pretty well compared to the rest of the market. However, given it's pe=20, it is always on my watchlist of potential shorts. Even a hint of disappointment in earnings will send the stock down.

[winner69]

Full year result tomorrow

Way shareprice going must be goings good one, and maybe a bright outlook for 2015

Umm, might need to buy in again

Keeping an eye on the squiggly line

[winner69]

Hmm, you might be right. Its been rangebound over the last year, which may have been the breather it needed after a big run up in the previous couple of years. Have they put a forecast out for 2015 or are they due to announce one at the AGM? Comsec are estimating 32.5c for FY15 and 34c for 2016. My concerns are (a) they seem to have a lot of "abnormals" affecting their net profits, and (b) the very high debt load. What are your thoughts on those?

Abnormals have been there but most have been demerger related stuff and h timing of insurance payments after the Queensland floods wiped out their factory

Debt looks high, particularly relative to equity but one needs to remember that when demerged hardly any equity came over from Orica. The value in Dulux is their brands and they are on the balance sheet as next to nothing. Cash flows are strong to support that debt. Low equity also means th high reported ROE (almost meaningless)

Without an acquisition I would only high forecast high single digit growth, nothing more.

On this basis no wonder it been range bound for a year or so eh.

See what they say tomorrow

[winner69]

Normalised NPAT $112m .....so on a PE of 19 at moment.

EBIT growth 12% on proforma annualised basis ...not too bad but I feel that might be as good as it gets until they acquire something big

FY15 should be better than 14 ....great guidance, wimps

Interesting to see how market responds this week

[winner69]

Market seems to approve ...steadily rising

Not back in

[winner69]

DLX hit 6 bucks last week, a new high

Will continue to do well but need another decent acquisition to give it another real step up.

Chart said sell a while ago so I did. The long term uptrend giving excessive returns was broken. The current uptrend is a lot weaker. Was a good trade over a year or so

Went looking for greener fields and it all went into Heartland.

[winner69]

Half year this week.

Should be more than last year in spite of economic headwinds

Wimpish guidance will be if nothing goes wrong will be more than last year

Share price about $5.50 this time a year ago .......now $6.30 / $6.50 ......not too bad .....so $7.50 or more in a years time

Settling in to be an above average return performer

[winner69]

Wasn't that flash

From Motlley Fool
http://www.fool.com.au/2015/05/18/duluxgroup-limited-posts-solid-result-is-this-a-buying-opportunity/

DuluxGroup Limited posts solid result: Is this a buying opportunity?

By Brendon Lau - May 18, 2015 | More on: DLX

Those hoping that DuluxGroup Limited’s (ASX: DLX) interim profit result would refuel the stock to shoot for a fresh record high will be disappointed.

Shares in the paint and building supplies group retreated 2.3% to $6.40 despite posting a respectable first-half performance.

Adjusted net profit jumped 9.3% to $61.4 million as sales lifted 4% to $836.9 million for the six months to end March, 2015. Shareholders were rewarded with a 10% increase in interim dividend to 11 cents a share.

But I am not surprised to see the stock slip on the news and I think it has further to fall before investors step in again.

There’s nothing wrong with the result but after the stock’s 11.5% jump over the past year, or 6.8 percentage points ahead of the S&P/ASX 200 (Index: ^AXJO) (ASX: XJO), management needed to deliver more to justify the stock’s lofty premium.

The stock closed at a record high of $6.73 three weeks ago.

Based on the current run rate, DuluxGroup is trading on an eye-watering price-earnings multiply of around 20x after the share price sell-off.

This multiple is usually reserved for companies with robust double-digit growth rates and DuluxGroup doesn’t fit the bill even though it’s seen as a quality growth stock.

I doubt today’s result will lead to a material change in analysts’ forecasts for the group and consensus estimates on Reuters are predicting around a 7% increase in earnings per share (EPS) for the next financial year.

Perhaps management could surprise on the upside from the turnaround in its garage door division, which has been the biggest drag on the half-year result with earnings before interest and tax tumbling 26.7% to $5.5 million.

But given that most new construction is centered on apartments, I am not holding my breath. Besides, garage doors only account for 7% of group EBIT.

The good news is that its largest division, paints and coatings, is growing its earnings and margins despite the weakening Australian dollar putting upward pressure on input costs.

This segment reported a 9% increase in EBIT to $78.7 million on the back of a 6.2% growth in sales to $442.4 million.

I think DuluxGroup is a good stock to add to anyone’s watchlist, but I wouldn’t be stepping up to buy the stock unless it falls well under the $6 mark.

[winner69]

Obviously wasn't that flash. The $6 mentioned is toast and price fallen to $5.72 today

That is 17% off its high of not that long ago

The price of not meeting the expectations of the lofty PE it commanded

Deutsche have it as a sell with valuation of $4.00 .....ouch

Nothing exciting here for a while (bar an acquisition). Will be interesting where he price goes but one day DLX will have its day

[Joshuatree]

Im reading its acquisitions (so often the downfall of a good business with something like 2 out of three being dogs) that are the prob ;performing poorly or being over paid for.

[winner69]

Yes the headlines did mention creaky doors ... Obviously not going as well as expected

[winner69]

Dulux be happy as Larry with Masters demise - no wonder DLX share price rocketing up today

From Business Spectator - Meanwhile, the Bunnings defeat of Masters is a victory for Dulux Group managing director Patrick Houlihan, who backed Bunnings over Masters.

In 2013, Dulux, which has a portfolio of brands including Cabot’s, Dulux, Selleys and British Paints, pulled its best-selling premium paint and woodcare products from Masters stores to protect its competitive position.

[Jay]

Talking to yourself again W69 - I just wish I have invested a few $ some time ago!

[winner69]

Another solid year for DLX sees shareprice hit 8 bucks

Pretty good earnings record over the years

[Jay]

No one seems to have must to say about this share, however, keep up the good work W69.
Looks a bit like fph, that is appears expensive, but keeps moving in a upward direction overall