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winner69
14-08-2010, 06:58 AM
Forget about Death Cross and other indicators like Phaedris's special index ... the Hindenburg as reappeared

Investors beware, the 'Hindenburg Omen' has reapp

Perhaps the clue is in today’s date, Friday 13, but equity investors should be very afraid if the reappearance of a US technical indicator believed to herald an imminent market crash is to be believed.

The ‘Hindenburg Omen’ is the ominously-titled list of five separate indicators linked to the New York Stock Exchange which when they occur at the same time, have historically warned of an impending crash.

Named after the tragic events of 1937 when the zeppelin airship Hindenburg dramatically exploded into flames in New Jersey, influential US market blog Zero Hedge reported overnight that the five technical indicators appeared to have occurred last Tuesday.

In fact Zero Hedge describes the Hindenburg Omen as: 'Easily the most feared technical pattern in all of chartism (for the bullishly inclined). Those who know what it is, tend to have an atavistic reaction to its mere mention.'

What is it?
The Hindenburg Omen describes when the daily number of New York Stock Exchange–listed year highs and the daily number of 52 week lows both exceed 2.2% of all the issues traded.

On 10 August, trading in new highs and new lows both exceeded that level.

So what you might say. But the Hindenburg Omen has apparently been present just prior to all of the market corrections or sell offs of the last 25 years.

Apparently the last time the phenomenon occurred was twice in June 2008, and once a month later. We all know what happened to the stock market that Autumn.

The Hindenburg Omen factors in full are:

1) That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.

2) That the smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69 (68.772 is 2.2% of 3126)

3) That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.

4) That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day. (This is a market breadth indicator used by NYSE analysts to evaluate how much money is flowing in or out of the market on a daily basis.)

5) That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs).

Factor 5 is an absolute necessity in all cases.

Experts say that for the Hindenburg Omen to be effective, it has to appear at least twice, and up to five times within a 36 day period, and that the the subsequent market collapse has to happen within a 120 day time frame.

According to US market blogger Marko's Take the technical indicators were almost there on 10 July. The daily number of 52 week highs was met, but the daily number of stocks recording 52 week lows fell just short of the 2.2% level.



http://www.citywire.co.uk/global/investors-beware-the-hindenburg-omen-has-reappeared/a421985/full

drillfix
23-08-2010, 02:31 AM
Hey Winner, how are ya!

Thanks for posting the first heads up of this, I am quite surprised that nobody has responded to your post. Perhaps nobody believes in this?

It now it appears that a 2nd Hindenburg has now also has occurred:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/second-hindenburg-omen-confirmation-many-days-third-ho-event-one-week

So I guess for believers or non believers, this is a big heads up to those who are long to tread and trade with a bit (alot imo) of caution.

This imo is not a time to be bargain hunting, but more rather a time for caution, even after such Oz election.

Also, does anybody watch ABC? A good lecture that is worth the download or having a watch or taking note of which links as follows:

http://www.abc.net.au/tv/bigideas/stories/2010/08/17/2984171.htm

You can also download it (link on the left either .mp4 or .wmv) and watch it on your computer (recommended watching this).

As some of you know me, I am not a bear or a paranoid android :eek2:, but rather somebody who has already lost a stack and just giving a heads up to all the good friendly folks here on ST.

Cheers again and hope catch up with you all sometime again soon.

Take care.
DF

Hoop
23-08-2010, 10:41 AM
The USA has been suspect for quiet a while now.

The question: If the USA defaults on its payments, is it the end of the financial world as we know it?
The Answer...Nahh!......
The problem with people and the media is that they see these events as unique new happenings and fear the worst...

A super power going bankrupt for a time is very common. History tells us so...
The resulting damage? ...not much..a recession here and there, but some other lesser powerful countries seize that opportunity and step up ("fill the void" theory) and have temporarily increased growth rates.

To save my time in writing this up again see my post #7 on No Wonder US economy stuffed (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7468-No-wonder-US-economy-stuffed&highlight=france+bankrupt) thread.
Recent country bankruptcies are
Iceland 2008
Pakistan 2008
Zimbabwe
Ecuador 2008
Argentina 2001
Russia 1998 (super power)
Germany 1945 (super power)
Great Britain 1945 (super power)

As you can see the world didn't end....

During the time France ruled the world it went bankrupt many times
Spain ditto
Great Britain ditto

So when you think about it the USA has performed very well not to have been bankrupted.
The law of averages using history as a guide suggests its USA's time.

So !!! a Hindenburg event??.........From an American point of View maybe.....For the rest of the world not supported by America (yes Americians there is a world outside the USA) it could actually be good news as a temporary window of opportunity opens up.

elZorro
23-08-2010, 10:55 AM
This is not good news for those of us who are always going long, and more to the point what can we do about it? I assume many are out of the market and waiting with cash.

Is JBMurc right? should we be buying gold and silver at the moment, because all equities will fall, no matter what their prospects, if this scenario plays out?

Hoop
23-08-2010, 10:56 AM
Also a curosity piece I posted (#123) way back
Reasons for the fall of the Roman Empire. (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5622-Depression-in-the-USA-Deflation-verus-Inflation/page9&highlight=depression)

Most of the reasons outlined in my post are very spooky....If you changed Roman Empire words to USA many wouldn't know the difference.

Obviously... Nothing has been learn't from History

h2so4
23-08-2010, 11:56 AM
The hindenburg omen is happening again.

Look more evidence we are heading for a double dip.

Nothing you can do about it. You can't stop anything bad happening but it doesn't have to enter your experience. To quote Graham, As in the old legend the wise men finally boiled down history of mortal affairs into the single phrase, "This too will pass".

Should it happen I agree with Hoop and hope that Bill Gates will once again open his Windows of opportunity.:)

bermuda
23-08-2010, 12:33 PM
Hoop ,
Thanks for your posts. I spent yesterday reading so much doom and gloom I was genuinely depressed. A replay of the All Blacks did help. There are certainly many indicators that point to the collapse of the USA. They have treated the world with contempt and have outspent themselves through ignorance and appalling leadership from Bush and Greenspan. Obama is running out of bandages.

My overall feeling is that world economic growth will continue to grow despite the USA going backwards. China, India, Brazil, Australia, Germany and others will hopefully see off the malaise of USA, UK, Ireland,Japan, Greece, Spain , Portugal..and others. But it will be volatile and if the USA does implode it will bring other markets down sharply. I will stick with energy.

macduffy
23-08-2010, 01:36 PM
I second that, bermuda.

We can spend too long staring at the empty part of the half-full glass and miss out on some good opportunities. Many commentators find it easier to take the "sky is falling" line than to look for reasons why this might not happen!

Meanwhile, I'll take profits where I think this is appropriate, buy into the odd good prospect and continue to monitor my portfolio on an individual stock basis as well as from an overall market perspective.

JBmurc
23-08-2010, 09:17 PM
Well its the big unknown to all ---any study shows the US is heading towards a much weaker currency as their only direction has been an will continue to be the printing more free Money more money to cover their deficit payments, more money to keep their defense force in action an in control of many countries etc
When will the credit nations say NO -Iraq was well known to have wanted to take other currencies like the euros instead of USD for their Oil (till they were invaded on so-called weapons of mass destruction)
I personal don't think it will happen overnight (well I hope not)but more so in the exchange of wealth an power as the USA,Britian,PIGs,japan will have inflation problems as their currency losses purchasing power against better credit nation with far cheap work forces an real resources be it in the ground or in the workforce
I hold silver bullion a gold/silver shares much like an insurance policy or as I like to call it my Kiwi-saver