BTU Bathurst Resources [Archive]

trackers

27-09-2010, 09:19 AM

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/4169230/Plan-for-new-coal-project-on-Coast

Applications for resource consents have been lodged for a multimillion-dollar open-cast coal-mining project on the historic coalfields of the Denniston Plateau.
West Australian firm Bathurst Resources is the project owner. It has filed for the resource consents in the name of L&M Coal, which it bought recently.
The project is proposed for the Denniston Plateau and Fairdown, just north of Westport.
The applications were notified on Friday.
L&M Coal has lodged 16 resource consent applications with the West Coast Regional Council and/or eight with the Buller District Council.
Bathurst intends to produce about a million tonnes of coal a year and to eventually ramp that up to two million tonnes a year, more than the annual production of New Zealand's biggest coal mine, Stockton, owned by state coal miner Solid Energy, in the same general area.

macduffy

28-09-2010, 09:14 PM

BTU announces initial JORC reserve of 12.6m tonnes.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100928/pdf/31srwm1g4smqf1.pdf

Shares suspended pending announcement re capital raising.

macduffy

01-10-2010, 01:20 PM

No announcement from the company yet but Tuesday's AFR carried a piece about BTU claiming that the capital raising will be a one for two issue - no price mentioned - together with a placement of $74m.

Said that the placement, managed by Helmsec, had been very favourably received by potential investors and that further presentations were therefore unnecessary and had been cancelled.

Perhaps we'll get official word of this shortly.

tony64peter

01-10-2010, 01:59 PM

Thanks Macduffy Did you read the annual report favourably?

macduffy

01-10-2010, 03:37 PM

Thanks Macduffy Did you read the annual report favourably?

I've only had a quick look but wouldn't expect to see anything to put me off BTU at this stage.

This company's fortunes are almost entirely dependent on success with the Buller Coal Project. So far, so good!

macduffy

05-10-2010, 02:05 PM

macduffy

05-10-2010, 02:19 PM

....... and the announcement

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101005/pdf/31sxx1xnysvdc2.pdf

shasta

05-10-2010, 02:20 PM

Last week's AFR article proved to be almost spot on.

Entitlement issue of one for two at 30c announced together with a placement of $76m worth of shares at 30c.
Placement shares not to participate in the entitlement issue.

BTU have been re-instated and have traded down at 36.5c

Pretty impressive capital raising if BTU pull it off, with a market cap ~$83m, & raising up to $110m

Question is, did LME sell too low, or did BTU pay too much for the $37m deal

macduffy

05-10-2010, 03:08 PM

Pretty impressive capital raising if BTU pull it off, with a market cap ~$83m, & raising up to $110m

Question is, did LME sell too low, or did BTU pay too much for the $37m deal

BTU claim to have firm commitments for the placement which is the bulk of the raising and the shares are trading at a premium to the 30c issue price, so I would have no doubt that they'll "pull it off".

The $37m is only a fraction of the consideration for the Buller project with two USD40m provisional payments to come at future stages plus an allocation of BTU shares.

shasta

05-10-2010, 03:11 PM

macduffy

05-10-2010, 03:39 PM

Thanks for that clarification, looks like LME may benefit in the short term from the deal (receiving cash upfront), & BTU in the mid-longer term

L and M Coal Holdings are the short term winners in this deal. I'm not sure what their relationship is to LME, having been primarily interested in the project from BTU's point of view.

I'm treating this investment as I do all my miners and oilies these days - except BHP! - and will be quick to take a profit if it doesn't continue to perform.

Re L and M Coal Holdings. On reflection, I'm pretty sure that this is not part of LME but is privately owned. Clarification would be appreciated.

COLIN

05-10-2010, 04:13 PM

BTU claim to have firm commitments for the placement which is the bulk of the raising and the shares are trading at a premium to the 30c issue price, so I would have no doubt that they'll "pull it off".

The $37m is only a fraction of the consideration for the Buller project with two USD40m provisional payments to come at future stages plus an allocation of BTU shares.

They also stated that the placement was heavily oversubscribed, which is most encouraging.

I think we will have to keep a close eye on progress with the resource consent process, though. The rising tide of opposition to coal mining in NZ, by environmental activists - sometimes even leading to acts of "eco-terrorism" - is a potential hazard which will require careful navigation.

macduffy

05-10-2010, 04:41 PM

Yes, Colin, that's the big issue that could de-rail the whole project.

What BTU have in their favour though is the pro mining, pro employment lobby on the Coast and the fact that the area to be mined is an "extension" of the existing Stockton mining precinct. Plus current govt enthusiasm of course although that could change if public opinion becomes too "anti".

shasta

05-10-2010, 10:36 PM

L and M Coal Holdings are the short term winners in this deal. I'm not sure what their relationship is to LME, having been primarily interested in the project from BTU's point of view.

I'm treating this investment as I do all my miners and oilies these days - except BHP! - and will be quick to take a profit if it doesn't continue to perform.

Re L and M Coal Holdings. On reflection, I'm pretty sure that this is not part of LME but is privately owned. Clarification would be appreciated.

I've been barking up the wrong tree, you are right they are not apart of LME. Sorry for any confusion

COLIN

06-10-2010, 12:05 AM

Yes, Colin, that's the big issue that could de-rail the whole project.

!!! An unconscious pun I think, McD!! I hope there is no "de-railing" of the coal trains - remember those idiots who welded themselves to the railway line a couple of years ago, in the path of a West Coast coal train!

macduffy

06-10-2010, 06:40 AM

Touche, COLIN!

Looks like there was heavy selling towards the end of day, yesterday.

Probably some of those "institutions" who will participate in the placement of those 253m shares!

COLIN

06-10-2010, 11:31 PM

Touche, COLIN!

Looks like there was heavy selling towards the end of day, yesterday.

Probably some of those "institutions" who will participate in the placement of those 253m shares!

Contrary to my expectations the price strengthened today. Lets keep rolling along. Hope there are no giant snails in the way. The last lot cost Solid Energy $35m!

Cheers.

soulman

07-10-2010, 03:41 PM

Contrary to my expectations the price strengthened today. Lets keep rolling along. Hope there are no giant snails in the way. The last lot cost Solid Energy $35m!

Cheers.

The record date for the rights are being put up, being 18th Oct. That could be a reason for the upward price movement.

macduffy

11-10-2010, 01:08 PM

COLIN

11-10-2010, 03:17 PM

The good news continues today with announcements of OIO approval and Crown Minerals consent for the transfer of permits to BTU.

Ok, they're pretty much formalities and the big'un will be the environmental approval. But enough to encourage the SP up another couple of cents!

I hate to admit to this, McD, but I have bailed out today, at 49c. I just see a huge, huge, environmental battle ahead, and even more so since the local body elections on Saturday, with the swing to the Left - even looks like a Green Mayor in Wellington, for crying out loud! Whatever were the voters thinking? Too many of them on hemp, I think.

soulman

11-10-2010, 11:37 PM

Sold at 47.5 Fri. Seems worried about the discounted cap raising and the extended suspension when BTU started trading but with the NEC deal and the hot coking coal sector, I am glad to flog BTU off at a profit. Bought for 43.5 just before the TH.

I see BTU drifting to the mid to high 30's in the short term.

macduffy

12-10-2010, 12:42 PM

I hate to admit to this, McD, but I have bailed out today, at 49c. I just see a huge, huge, environmental battle ahead, and even more so since the local body elections on Saturday, with the swing to the Left - even looks like a Green Mayor in Wellington, for crying out loud! Whatever were the voters thinking? Too many of them on hemp, I think.

I thought long and hard about lightening off yesterday too but decided to see how they fared this morning, ex issue.

Trading around the theoretical ex issue price so I've sold 66% of my holding and will take up the new issue at 30c. It's been a profitable exercise but I agree that the environmental approvals will come with a fight so best not to be too heavily committed.

But what's this about Wellington not being green? Still has a big public servant population with perhaps less understanding than most as to the commercial realities of life. Any present company on this forum excepted, of course.

macduffy

15-10-2010, 02:27 PM

Being a rights issue I assume that the rights will be quoted/traded although the timetable doesn't specify any dates for this.

Interesting that "eligible shareholders may also apply for additional shares in excess of their entitlement, up to a maximum value of $50,000."

I might have a small piece of that if the rights trade at anywhere around their theoretical value of 11c. A repeat of something like the recent HBY experience would be most welcome!

tony64peter

15-10-2010, 08:22 PM

I may be wrong but think the rights are NON RENOUNCEABLE meaning they can't be traded Cheers Tony

Being a rights issue I assume that the rights will be quoted/traded although the timetable doesn't specify any dates for this.

Interesting that "eligible shareholders may also apply for additional shares in excess of their entitlement, up to a maximum value of $50,000."

I might have a small piece of that if the rights trade at anywhere around their theoretical value of 11c. A repeat of something like the recent HBY experience would be most welcome!

macduffy

15-10-2010, 08:39 PM

I may be wrong but think the rights are NON RENOUNCEABLE meaning they can't be traded Cheers Tony

Yes, you're right.

All the more reason to have a piece of the "additional " shares, which may now be more readily available.

macduffy

17-10-2010, 09:45 AM

As COLIN predicted recently, environmental approval for the Buller Coal Project won't come without a fight.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/4239770/Australian-mine-planned-on-NZ-conservation-land

sheepy

02-11-2010, 10:40 PM

Bank of america is up to 13.3 percent.

macduffy

05-11-2010, 04:13 PM

I've had an each way bet by selling ex issue, taking up the 1 for 2 entitlement and applying for a few extra.

I still like the project but want to limit my risk.

Any shareholders still thinking about it need to be aware that the issue closes today. Still possible to act via BPay.

macduffy

15-11-2010, 01:04 PM

The issue was 93% subscribed so there won't be a lot of extra shares to go around.

But the big news today is that GLL have agreed to BTU buying the Eastern Resources assets in NZ. These comprise a mine and tenements in close proximity to the Buller Coal Project and a mine in Southland ( Ohai) which supplies Fonterra's Clandeboye plant.

The market likes the idea and BTU's SP is up 16% today to 47c on re-listing.

macduffy

15-11-2010, 04:58 PM

Correction, make that +35% to 55c!

Any of you Pike River followers along for this ride?

tony64peter

23-11-2010, 05:03 PM

Macduffy you are the man A Big thanks for this tip. It will nearly clear the loss with PRC. Cheers Tony

COLIN

23-11-2010, 11:15 PM

I have been surprised and puzzled to see BTU climb in price, over the last couple of days, given the Pike River disaster. Surely that development can't be seen as a positive for BTU!

macduffy

24-11-2010, 07:30 AM

Yes, it surprised me, too.

The Buller Coal Project will be an open cast/open cut mine but I'd have thought that the environmental opposition would be even tougher now.

I've been taking profits and only have a small stake there now.

tony64peter

24-11-2010, 11:41 AM

macduffy

24-11-2010, 02:05 PM

I wonder if the market senses otherwise. In that opposition to the resource consent for PRC forced it into being an underground mine. Also I don't think the GREENIES have the same political influence with respect to BTU's upcoming resource consent application.

Perhaps, and it may be that local support will be even stronger now.

BTU is an Aussie company of course and I've assumed that most interest in the stock is coming from that direction. Its been a good performer for me and only this morning I received notification from the WA registrar - Security Transfer Registrars - that I'd been allotted a tranche from the oversubscription pool. I wasn't too greedy but received 81% of what I asked for (another 54% on top of my entitlement). At a subscription price of 30c and a current SP of around 60c it's more icing on the cake!

macduffy

26-11-2010, 12:19 PM

BTU is to dual-list on NZX.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101126/pdf/31v59ybgsz20sj.pdf

macduffy

09-12-2010, 03:08 PM

BTU announces a Memorandum of Understanding for sale of coal from the Buller Coal Project.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101209/pdf/31vh8b9cmyrrkw.pdf

I hold.

macduffy

09-12-2010, 08:59 PM

And the market was suitably impressed.

BTU up 5c (7.7%) to 70c.

macduffy

15-12-2010, 12:22 PM

Talk today of govt considering measures to boost West Coast employment/economy, including possible fast tracking of resource mangement approvals, won't be doing the Buller project any harm.

tony64peter

20-12-2010, 10:38 AM

Thanks MACD for the info. This has been a good one to trade, picking the next runup to around the 80cent mark before retracing. M Xmas T

Xerof

20-12-2010, 10:53 AM

Macduffy,

have these guys firmed up their employee pool, or are the PRC miners (that stick around for several more months) likely to find work at BTU?

Everybody talks doom and gloom over on the PRC thread, but maybe this opportunity has been kept quiet, whilst they all bleat on about needing a Government bailout

macduffy

20-12-2010, 12:12 PM

BTU have been planning on the basis of receiving environmental approvals in 4Q 2010 - which admittedly doesn't leave a lot of time to achieve that now - with construction commencing in 1Q 2011 and first production in 4Q 2011. I don't know how that fits in with employment of PRC miners but I took it as a promising sign that the govt was talking last week about fast tracking approvals for West Coast projects.

I was attracted to BTU initially because their Buller project is adjacent to the Stockton mine - in fact it virtually surrounds it - and a lot of the necessary infrastructure is already in place or can be readily upgraded. No such thing as a sure thing but I have confidence that it will be a goer. Bank of America/Merrill Lynch - or one of their big clients - seems to agree, with their holding increasing a few days ago to 14.6%.

macduffy

28-12-2010, 11:29 AM

Not exactly BTU's business but RIO's bid for Riversdale underlines the demand for quality coking coal such as BTU is planning to mine next year.

From Stephen Bartholomeusz:

"

Rio Tinto has finally pushed the button on its much-anticipated $3.9 billion bid for Riversdale Mining. Despite putting its foot on 14.9 per cent of the coking coal group and obtaining a board recommendation, the success of the offer isn’t, however, necessarily guaranteed.

Riversdale, because it has a significant coking coal resource in Mozambique – a resource of about 13 billion tonnes – is quite a strategic company and has consequently attracted the interest of some strategic players.

India’s Tata Steel owns 24.2 per cent of the company and has a 35 per cent interest in its Benga project. Brazilian steelmaker CSN and the US fund manager Passport Capital are also major shareholders, while China’s Wuhan Iron and Steel has signed a non-binding heads of agreement with the group to acquire a 40 per cent interest in its Zambeze project for $US800 million and an 8 per cent stake in the company itself for about $A190 million.

Apart from their potential to stop Rio from gaining control, the presence of the steel industry players points to their view of Riversdale’s strategic significance in an industry sector dominated by the Australian coking coal producers and BHP Billiton in particular. Australia produces roughly half the world’s seaborne trade in coking coal.

Having been powerless to prevent BHP from leading a successful push to abandon benchmark pricing and annual negotiations in the iron ore market, imposing market-related pricing on the mills against their will, and now experiencing similar pressure to agree to increasingly market-related pricing of coking coal, the Chinese and Indian steelmakers would desperately like to promote non-Australian sources of supply and new entrants to the sector.

They would be very mindful of the likelihood, unless China’s economy slows significantly, that coking coal prices will continue to rise quite steeply in what is already a tight market where the ownership of production is highly concentrated.

While Rio has been busily repairing its relationship with China after the tensions created by its decision to abandon the proposed strategic alliance with Chinalco – it has brought Chinalco into its giant Simandou iron ore project in Guinea and recently entered a new joint venture to explore for resources within China itself – the prospect of Rio, the number two seaborne iron ore producer, growing its presence in their other key input would be disconcerting to the Chinese and Indian mills.

Ever since Rio’s interest in Riversdale was disclosed early this month there has been speculation of rival bids, even consortium bids by Indian steel mills.

Now that the offer is on the table and underway the preparedness of the mills to combat any tightening of the hold the big iron ore suppliers have over the key steelmaking inputs will be tested and exposed. "

macduffy

08-01-2011, 06:37 PM

Is anyone else sharing in BTU's run?

SP in Aust at 78.5c and $1.07 in NZ!

Environmental approvals are still the big issue but the market appears to be anticipating a favourable outcome.

macduffy

14-01-2011, 08:21 PM

BTU receives a speeding ticket from the ASX.

Usual answer to these queries - "We know nothing"

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110114/pdf/41w61jv5s83nxs.pdf

I hold.

upside_umop

14-01-2011, 08:34 PM

Incredible. This one just keeps going and going, well done MacDuffy.
I was looking at 24 and then at 40 and then....it's tough chasing stocks.
Still, I have it for the NZX stockpicking competition as it could be the standout performer of the NZX this year.

macduffy

18-01-2011, 07:45 PM

And up another 7.5c (8.5%) to A96c today.

Either environmental approvals are imminent - or someone thinks they are!

fihr

19-01-2011, 04:17 PM

Just bought into this today.

macduffy

20-01-2011, 01:13 PM

Good to have company on this one, fihr.

Up another 8% today!

macduffy

21-01-2011, 02:08 PM

Does anyone have access to today's AFR?

Apparently there is some reference in the "Street Talk" column to BTU being the subject of takeover speculation.

SP strong again today.

Anna Naum

21-01-2011, 02:24 PM

Does anyone have access to today's AFR?

Apparently there is some reference in the "Street Talk" column to BTU being the subject of takeover speculation.

SP strong again today.

New Zealand coalminer Bathurst Resources plans to deliver its high- value Buller coal project before year end, leading to an outbreak of takeover talk on the stock in recent months.
While its forecast production is at the smaller end of the scale, the company’s low capex at $US35 a tonne is seen as appealing.
Analysts at Credit Suisse initiated coverage at $1.50 a share on Wednesday but expect that price to increase as Bathurst receives government approvals later this year.

macduffy

21-01-2011, 02:35 PM

Thanks for that, AN.

Nothing we didn't really know but interesting that "takeover talk" is in the wind and that Credit Suisse see fit to cover the stock.

Cheers.

nick2653

21-01-2011, 03:32 PM

Is that $1.50 target price in AUD or NZD?

JBmurc

21-01-2011, 03:56 PM

Yeah must be one high value deposit I see BTU commands a 621mill market cap on the ASX

macduffy

21-01-2011, 05:11 PM

Is that $1.50 target price in AUD or NZD?

BTU is an Australian company, AFR is an Aussie paper and Credit Suisse is (locally) Aussie so I assume we're talking AUD here.

macduffy

21-01-2011, 05:27 PM

Yeah must be one high value deposit I see BTU commands a 621mill market cap on the ASX

The Buller Coal project has a JORC Reserve of 10.2MT, Resources of 47.1MT and the company has an exploration target of 60-90 MT.

A conservative price for quality coking coal would currently be well in excess of USD100 pt.

Then there is the value of the recently acquired Eastern Resources NZ assets, including those adjacent to the Buller project.

COLIN

21-01-2011, 05:53 PM

macduffy

21-01-2011, 06:06 PM

I'll second that, COLIN!

Given my conservative investing nature I've sold down a fair bit over the last few months so I've foregone a lot of "paper" profits.

My gut feel is still that the West Coast support is there for this to happen, particularly as it's an opencut/opencast operation and will share a lot of the infrastructure used by the Stockton mine.

mark100

21-01-2011, 06:32 PM

The Buller Coal project has a JORC Reserve of 10.2MT, Resources of 47.1MT and the company has an exploration target of 60-90 MT.

A conservative price for quality coking coal would currently be well in excess of USD100 pt.

Then there is the value of the recently acquired Eastern Resources NZ assets, including those adjacent to the Buller project.

NEC which is under takeover offer from NHC has 2 main projects (plus some stranded assets with resources). The Maryborough coking coal project which expects first production in around a year has JORC reserves of 5.9Mt and Resources of 83Mt. The Elimatta thermal coal project (located near Xstrata's Wandoan thermal project) has JORC reserves of 106Mt and Resources of 244Mt. NEC has a market cap of just $212m and NHC is only offering $193m. This compares with BTU's market cap of $600m plus.

But what would I know, I sold BTU for around 9c following an SPP at 5c around 18 months ago :(

Discl - holding NEC

karen1

21-01-2011, 06:37 PM

[QUOTE=macduffy;333853]I'll second that, COLIN!

My gut feel is still that the West Coast support is there for this to happen, particularly as it's an opencut/opencast operation and will share a lot of the infrastructure used by the Stockton mine.

Hi Macd, it's good to see your last post - I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiments here. It has been a gut feel which has seen me into this (along with as much research as I could handle; being still a newbie I have a lot to learn, but reckon this one is definitely worth the punt.

macduffy

24-01-2011, 08:14 AM

So much for my conservative price for coking coal!

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/coking-coal-prices-to-skyrocket-as-stockpiles-dry-up/story-e6frg8zx-1225993253543

Subject to extreme short term influences, of course.

macduffy

01-02-2011, 03:35 PM

BTU quarterly report out today.

Nothing new in the quarterly of course but confirmation that progressing approvals had been put on hold as a result of the Pike River disaster. Seems that the market has been reassured and the SP has recovered recent losses to be up 6% today.

I continue to hold.

karen1

01-02-2011, 07:04 PM

From NZX.com today:

"Bathurst Resources (BTU): The Australian-based developer of open-cast South Island West Coast coking coal operations known as the Buller Project says it is targeting extraction at a rate of 650,000 tonnes annually by the end of this year from its Escarpment block, rising to 1 million tonnes annually by 2013, and increasing to 2 million tonnes annually by late 2013, as its Deep Creek block comes into production.

The company will then seek to replicate this development strategy in northern blocks of the project, to reach four million tonnes total output. BTU shares dropped from $1.44 to $1.30 in NZX trading yesterday."

I also continue to hold, wish I had more!

macduffy

03-02-2011, 05:58 PM

Interview with MD Hamish Bohannan is on boardroom radio.

http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?showtopic=10894

tony64peter

03-02-2011, 07:40 PM

Thanks for that Macduffy. They must be confident in the consents being approved, to be moving ahead with the off site construction of the steel building frames. He seemed pretty confident with Dec production.
Interview with MD Hamish Bohannan is on boardroom radio.

http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?showtopic=10894

macduffy

05-02-2011, 04:45 PM

The Street Talk page of last Monday's AFR again mentioned BTU as a takeover prospect and that they are, apparently, in the process of choosing/appointing a "defence adviser".

I hope there's substance to that speculation - not that I'd want to see BTU taken out at this stage - and that it's not just someone trying to pump the stock.

tony64peter

08-02-2011, 12:20 PM

Another break out, I'm picking to around $1.25 before retacing, Has been a great one to trade. A big thanks McD. Just about recouped my losses with PRC. T

macduffy

08-02-2011, 05:47 PM

Yes, a strong day again, possibly on the back of the announcement of UBS as Corporate Advisor.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110208/pdf/41wnb7k0zp8b1m.pdf

macduffy

09-02-2011, 08:39 AM

A good article here from The Australian on BTU's prospects.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/bathurst-hires-adviser-as-predators-circle/story-e6frg8zx-1226002468996

tony64peter

09-02-2011, 09:15 AM

"Credit Suisse has a target price of $1.50 and a buy recommendation on the stock but has an unrisked valuation on the stock of $2.15."
Thanks McD

macduffy

17-02-2011, 05:46 PM

BTU's presentation to the Citi Emerging Coal Co's forum.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110217/pdf/41wv5df23l38dn.pdf

macduffy

21-02-2011, 05:48 PM

BTU secures Heads of Agreement for access to Westport port.

Good news, but the biggie is still the awaited environmental approvals.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110221/pdf/41wx7gfjz8qmq3.pdf\\

macduffy

04-03-2011, 11:10 AM

BTU has been included in the S&P/ASX300 index.

Should broaden their appeal to bigger funds and investors.

macduffy

04-03-2011, 01:36 PM

A formality I suppose, but the OIO has consented to the aquisition of Eastern Resources Group.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110304/pdf/41x78hfywxs1gn.pdf

drillfix

04-03-2011, 01:48 PM

BTU has been included in the S&P/ASX300 index.

Should broaden their appeal to bigger funds and investors.

Hi MD,

Mate you seem on your own some in this thread nearly.

Great looking chart with BTU, I am surprise there has been no more posts here other than you and a few others.

Chart is good, and I mean really nice, IMO wish I had the loose cash to ride that hourly chart which just tunred 2 hours ago.

For those that want a ride, the Hourly chart is on the move and the daily MACD histogram and signal line looks set for the next leg up early next week.

MD, will post a chart over the weekend which will also show a weekly.

Good luck to you, but then probably no luck needed on this one :P

macduffy

04-03-2011, 02:55 PM

Thanks, drillfix.

A bit of luck never goes astray in this game but I'm fairly confident of this one. It's a good resource with good infrastructure largely in place. Environmental approvals are still the big tick needed by the company but I reckon the local support for the project will carry the day.

tony64peter

05-03-2011, 11:51 AM

If PRC gets the deal whereby the Gremouth council swaps its land for DOC land above the mine and subsequently open casts then BTU's consents are a forgone conclusion and I would suggest the reverse to be the case also. Heres Hoping. Cheers T

Casa del Energia

23-03-2011, 12:09 PM

Excerpt from the Westport News..

(http://westportnews.co.nz/monday.pdf)
"The Buller District Council was still sorting the third
commissioner, said Mr Dall.
However a date for the hearing was still to be chosen
and it was unlikely to proceed before the end of
April, he said...."

I seriously doubt the end of 2011 target for production. Absolutely no sign of anything happening around the Fairdown rail head, the track up the hill where the slurry pipe is going etc etc.

And no sign of sorting out the proposed discharge into deadmans creek.

macduffy

23-03-2011, 01:50 PM

Casa del Energia

24-03-2011, 12:12 PM

Thanks for that, C del E.

You're probably right in doubting that production can commence in 2011 although I note that the company's latest presentation (February) still had this in the development plan and was targetting "1H 2011" for approvals. This approvals date has, of course, slipped from earlier estimates following the Pike River mine disaster.

Well, I'm going down there late April (for other purposes) but also intend to have a sticky beak and see what I can see. I was not looking at the time when they listed and missed out - but (selfishly) look forward to the sp softening when the delays start happening. I've seen the area where the slurry pipe is going in - and it's rugged - but then talking to 'a retired Stockton worker' (and others), he said it would be no problem - - so I don't really know - we'll see.

macduffy

24-03-2011, 06:13 PM

Will be interested in your findings, C del E.

BTU had a good day today with the SP up 8.5c (7.5%). Let's hope it's good news on the way although fair to say that other "coal emergers" also did well. A growing realisation that coal is here to stay for a while?

macduffy

01-04-2011, 04:45 PM

BTU gets a favourable mention here. (3rd article)

Meanwhile, it's not doing the SP any harm!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10716260

Arbitrage

01-04-2011, 08:51 PM

Although calling it the next PRC put me off.

macduffy

02-04-2011, 09:09 AM

Yes, not a great headline. The SP still managed a 12c gain on the NZX though!

Althoigh BTU's major assets are in NZ and the stock is listed on the NZX, it is of course an Aussie company and the big action takes place on the ASX. Yesterday's turnover was 13,000 in NZ and over 2 million in Oz.

macduffy

20-04-2011, 11:44 AM

BTU has awarded a contract for construction of the coal processing plant.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110420/pdf/41y4wmq7lprrbj.pdf

No mention yet of receiving environmental approvals.

macduffy

23-04-2011, 09:20 AM

From the DomPost today.

Sharemarket-listed company Bathurst Resources has taken another step towards starting an open-cast coalmine near Westport, but hiring up to 225 people will not begin till it gets official consent to mine.

Bathurst's subsidiary, Buller Coal, has appointed Greymouth-based firm Brightwater Engineering to build a coal-processing plant and associated facilities.

The plant will process coal from the mine, in the south of the Denniston Plateau, about 14kms from Westport. Bathurst expected to draw local workers.

Bathurst managing director Hamish Bohannon said: "The pressure is on to get the mine up and running – the community is crying out for jobs."

While Bathurst is based in Perth, Western Australia, Mr Bohannon is based in Nelson.

It had $42 million in the bank and facilities for more, he said. Bathurst hoped to start mining by the end of the year, with commercial production soon after.

The company expected to start hiring straight after it gained consent. But how long that would take was unknown, with no official start date yet.

The mine was no different from what Solid Energy was doing nearby, he said, so consent should be "relatively straightforward".

The project is expected initially to employ up to 160 people, rising to 225, pumping about $30m into the region in salaries and wages.

The 160 would be mining and administration staff, with the balance for the coal washplant when it was completed. "There will be plenty of other jobs," he said, including at the local port.

The mine was expected to produce 360,000 tonnes of coal in the first year, which he said was modest, but would rise to 1 million tonnes, reaching 2 million in later years.

Most of the coal would be shipped out of Westport, with some going through Lyttelton.

The coal from the mine would be sold to Asia, for use in making steel.

Coal was selling for about US$250 (NZ$311) a tonne, and steel was very much in demand in Asia.

"The appetite from China is insatiable," he said.

karen1

23-04-2011, 11:21 AM

"relatively straightforward" - and so it should be, so what's the holdup? Perhaps it's something Green. I couldn't think of anything more appropriate to grant right now, with the issue of employment in the area, and local support.

macduffy

23-04-2011, 01:16 PM

I think the reaction from the PIke River disaster is for "the authorities" to take a deep breath and put such decisions on the backburner for a while.

I've no doubt that those opposed will try to advance Pike River as a reason not to proceed but confident that logic and local support will get the project approved without too many further delays.

I'm holding.

karen1

23-04-2011, 05:53 PM

Also holding, and quite happy to do so longer term. Most everything we can read on this co speaks of a co prepared to take their time to do things right, at least that's my perception. No shortcuts. Hamish Bohannan has great experience in this field, and is highly thought of. Agree, logic and local support should assist greatly.
Let us hope we are correct.

karen1

27-04-2011, 10:59 AM

Hot off the press: http://www.bathurstresources.com/Investor-Information/Announcements

COLIN

27-04-2011, 12:36 PM

What about the snails!

Casa del Energia

28-04-2011, 12:17 PM

Hi all, I'm back from Westport. And sorry - I had great intentions of doing in depth snooping but got tied up with too many other things. Oniy observations are:

The dewatering site near Deadmans Creek - absolutely no activity, not a sod turned yet. There are a bunch of 'survey pegs' in the dairy farm where the pipe is to go through. I spoke to one a chap who neighbours the farm, Bathhurst has been to see him but they didn't know anything about the pegs - it might have just been the farmer doing something. The farm is actually owned privately so Bathurst must be doing an easement - I had previously wrongly assumed bathurst bought it and developed the dairy farm (it only just had a mega sized milking shed put in this year). The pegs are run along the side of the farm anyway - not where to pipe is supposed to be.
Nothing much happening at the port - there's a big stack of railway ballast - I assume for re-doing the tracks and those four blokes in the hard hats you see in the bathurst publicity foto were still milling around on Wednesday when I took a gander down there. Apart from that - not much going on that I could see.
I was talking with a local contracting firm (on another matter) I was after their grader - it's up the hill doing work of the hydro track - where the pipe is to come down - the grader would be finished up there in few days - - sorry, I forgot to ask if they were doing any extra for Bathurst - but in and case it looks like work on the track is winding down if equipment is becoming available.
Didn't get to the Denniston plateau - wouldn't see anything anyway - it's a big place and hard to get over.
Looks like the only thing going on at the moment is prep work for the hearing in July - the Bathurst people will be going door to door speaking to locals in the area - don't know what about - I assume it about the project in some way.
There's a large depot place about three mile from deadmans creek that has a number of pipes stacked up - but I'm certain they're just concrete pipes even though they've be tarred black on the inside - it's hard to tell for certain when zipping by at 100k with a mines truck bearing down on you from the other direction - - and incidentaly, all the heavy traffic, vans, work busses going back and forth are all marked/labeled/numbered for the stockton mine - no sign of any thing else.

Opinion: Doesn't look like a december production start can physically be a goer - - So I'll wait for the sp to fall away - but then again it could always go the other way if cokeing coal gets even dearer.

macduffy

02-05-2011, 12:48 PM

BTU in trading halt pending announcement re significant acquisition and possible associated capital raising.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110502/pdf/41ydcpt3bcqgsp.pdf

Here's hoping it's good news!

karen1

02-05-2011, 03:19 PM

Sounding more like good news around the corner.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/4950771/Bathurst-in-trading-halt-no-Pike-River-plans

macduffy

02-05-2011, 03:48 PM

Thanks, karen.

I wouldn't expect a CEO to be other than positive ahead of an announcement about a pending acquisition. Let's hope shareholders share his enthusiasm once we're let into the secret!

karen1

02-05-2011, 10:42 PM

Hi macduffy

Appreciate your comments.

I have a long way to go in my understanding of investing, but have followed this one for long enough to appreciate the great experience Hamish Bohannan has in his field. I've read very many articles on the man, and believe he has a total grasp of his field of expertise. A MD/CEO who appears not to flinch or pause in interviews is ok in my book. This is one of the more recent articles I have read:

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=8241269&ticker=BTU:AU

and back on 19.08.10 http://www.brr.com.au/event/67884/bathurst-resourcesinterim-dfs-results-confirm-project-viability-at-the-buller-coking-coal-project-hamish-bohannan-managing-director

Have also read a great deal on other directors, plus the company as a whole, so I hope my faith is not misguided!

macduffy

03-05-2011, 12:57 PM

Acquisition of the Brookvale assets looks to be a good move, particularly as it enhances the value of BTU's own Buller project assets.

Slight disappointment on my part that shareholders aren't to participate in the capital raising - via institutional placement - but I'm probably quibbling a bit here. At less than 15% of issued capital the dilution factor isn't great. I'd expect the placement to be snapped up at $1.05.

macduffy

03-05-2011, 03:36 PM

Stuff report on the transaction.

And yes, it's "Brookdale', not "Brookvale".

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/4955975/Bathurst-buys-more-of-Buller-Plateau

macduffy

03-05-2011, 04:51 PM

UBS to lead the capital raising.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/city-beat/ubs-leads-bathurst-resources-raising/story-fn4xq4v1-1226049068243

macduffy

04-05-2011, 11:47 AM

$55m capital raising has been completed.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110504/pdf/41yfy4qj84tc7v.pdf

tony64peter

04-05-2011, 12:15 PM

Managed to buy a stack more on the ASX open, on both markets. The news seem to spook a few traders. Can't see why, its really only an extention to the Cascades mine and I don't think consents for this are going to be a problem long term. Bohannan's no fool and this purchace would not have occurred if he wasn't confident about the June 6 hearing.In an email I received from him last week he inferred that negotiations with objectors to the consent had already started.

macduffy

04-05-2011, 12:22 PM

Probably a combination of a fairly weak Aussie market and the dilution effect of another 52m odd shares on issue. And not all the recipients of shares in the placement may want to be long term holders!

macduffy

07-05-2011, 08:40 AM

BTU have signed a term sheet - non-binding agreement at this stage - with CITIC for the takeoff of 30% of annual production from the Buller project.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110506/pdf/41yhw1n32t7wr4.pdf

Good news, but there is a fine line to draw between committing production without discouraging another potentially interested part who might be prepared to pay more, or maybe make an offer for the company that shareholders couldn't refuse!

All speculation on my part and I'm sure that Bohannan and Co are well up with the play on this.

Casa del Energia

19-05-2011, 01:18 PM

Surprisingly, Brightwater has put in for resource consent for a 1000 odd sq m workshop across the road from the BTU coal load out - presumably to service BTU. They plan to have it built later this year. But what if there's delays in BTUs consents - the coal loading plant could be turned down, appeals, modifications all sorts of things.

macduffy

30-05-2011, 01:07 PM

BTU has responded to an ASX "please explain" concerning an increase in the company's SP on increased volume by confirming that it has not been approached by a third party with respect to a possible acquisition of the company. Apparently there was an article in the AFR on 24 May to this effect.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110530/pdf/41yxnxyjxcwt5m.pdf

tony64peter

30-05-2011, 01:26 PM

From G/sachs report 24may11 on the Bathurst website

BUY - BTU essentially has high-quality coal that should be easily placed
into the market and attract a premium price to other coking coals.
While there are always start-up/construction risks with new projects, we
regard these as relatively modest for BTU and, given the longer
duration of the coking coal story, any such delays will not significantly
affect the valuation, in our view.

•

This is an undeveloped coal resource in NZ that still needs

environmental permitting, construction and the establishment of a

workforce. These represent risks which we have allowed for in our
target price and, in addition, are reflected in the WACC.
•

We think BTU is attractively priced given its coal production profile, coal

quality and our coking coal price forecasts and, as a commodity, it is

geologically scarce.
•

We think the outlook for coking coal remains positive in both the

medium and, importantly, longer term. We regard coking coal as

effectively a later-cycle commodity in the emerging-market growth

story.
Valuation at A$1.51

Casa del Energia

07-06-2011, 04:42 PM

drillfix

07-06-2011, 04:53 PM

Since when does Goldman Sachs offer out any info that does not entail them feathering their own pockets.

IMO, caution anything Goldman says,.

Back to BTU, what I like about Bathurst is the chart and the way it nicely presents itself to show you which side of the trade you should be on :)

Casa del Energia

07-06-2011, 05:09 PM

tony64peter

08-06-2011, 12:54 PM

Some bleats in the Westport news,http://westportnews.co.nz/thursday.pdf

tony64peter

08-06-2011, 12:58 PM

Ah, but the latest general advice from Goldman out today is to underweight Aussie resource. And I think they are right - asia is looking more and more flakey these days. End of 2011 for production might be a miss as far as coat tailing the minerals boom is concerned.

Will the Tsunami rebuild in Japan require additional steel and do recyclers use this type of coal in their furnaces?

Casa del Energia

08-06-2011, 05:40 PM

Will the Tsunami rebuild in Japan require additional steel and do recyclers use this type of coal in their furnaces?

I haven't a clue how much new steel or steel re-cycling Japan will be doing. From what I remember of the film clips - most of the areas destroyed was farming/small towns and the like. Apart from the occasional coastal freighter perched on top of the local mutual society building- you don't get the impression that there is going to be a flooded scrap metal market. I seriously doubt Japan is going to have much impact on the coking coal market. Of bigger interest may be the slower than expected GDP growth in China.. and there's something that isn't adding up at the moment - all this talk about aussie being hit because of the Queensland floods etc etc - but why the big hammering on BHP (oil interests all over the planet, PNA - only mines in Laos - - it's not a supply problem - it's demand.
Anyway - back to Denniston coal: Well, yes - re-cyclers do use 'this type of coal' in that smelters blend the coals because nothing comes out of the ground consistently - and in fact I think the stuff from Denniston would 'swing about' quite a bit because the Stockton coal changes quite a bit in sulphur content depending on where the digger is at the time. It seems a waste these days but the Stockton coal was used for burning in fire places and earlier, in British navy vessels - nowadays the ash and sulphur needs to be known (for smelting) so they assay it (in a lab in Ngakawau, I think) so the buyer knows what to buy for blending.
I know they've been drilling up at denniston - and I assume they assay the coal - but I don't know whether is so low sulphur and ash that it's prized for the blast furnace or its so full of sulphur it has to be blended. Another side issue is that the Stockton plateau coal can be quite high in Aluminium - - that might be awkward for metallurgical coals.

tony64peter

11-06-2011, 02:53 PM

Week 1 of the hearing,http://westportnews.co.nz/friday.pdf

macduffy

20-06-2011, 12:45 PM

Casa del Energia

20-06-2011, 04:48 PM

Consent hearing makes Radio New Zealand news.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/78152/fears-for-ecosystem-if-west-coast-mine-approved

But no, the mine hasn't been approved yet, despite the "shortened" heading!

I wonder what company is proposing to restore vegetation and do the relocations. I was in Westport last week and actually had a chat with the bloke who owns the company which does a lot of the mine restoration work around there - he never mentioned anything, Mind you, it was a few cuts of venison and what ute gives best bang for buck that was the top topics when we were talking.
Also, talking to others - word has it that they bought out one of the nimbys and have signed confidential agreements with two others, who have withdrawn their objections - so it could still be all systems go for coal production EOY 2011
Yes, I know - there's isn't much else to do there except gossip.

macduffy

22-06-2011, 11:40 AM

BTU and Solid Energy sign a "Collaborative Agreement" for the use of certain infrastructure and transportation.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110622/pdf/41zbrlg8j42hq1.pdf

tony64peter

22-06-2011, 01:10 PM

Boardroom radio on the 6th Jun http://www.brr.com.au/event/81504/bathurst-resources-asx-small-to-mid-caps-conference-hamish-bohannan-managing-director

Casa del Energia

22-06-2011, 02:23 PM

Boardroom radio on the 6th Jun http://www.brr.com.au/event/81504/bathurst-resources-asx-small-to-mid-caps-conference-hamish-bohannan-managing-director

The accompanying pdf of the presentation has some interesting items in it. Note that they are including areas like the Blackburn flats in their prosective areas - which is miles from where the operations will start; and note that it is well inside 'Solid Energy' territory. And then also note that they now have a share-the-slurry-pipe deal with Solid energy as well as percentage of the rail capacity across the hill to Lyttleton - ref. (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10733750) . More ducks lined up.
Although its a bit disquieting about construction start 2nd half 2011. Perhaps a little optimistic - only 8 days to go. Specially since the local greenicks are already talking appeals if they don't get their way.

macduffy

24-06-2011, 03:27 PM

drillfix

24-06-2011, 03:51 PM

Ahh Macduff, a true Coal man through and though. No doubt you are in for the long haul hey?

Say MacD. What are your thoughts on MTE compared to BTU say? Some volatility floating around coal sector as there is the whole market so no surprise really.

Casa del Energia

24-06-2011, 04:04 PM

A recent article in the AFR on selling for tax-loss purposes noted that BTU was the best performing stock on this ASX "this year " - presumably the financial year ending 30 June 2011 - with a 555% increase in the SP. Does make me wonder how much further appreciation can be expected after that, but I'm holding at this stage.

Not sure about holding at the moment since there's down side when the market realises that profit is further off than initially thought. I don't see the infrastructure being built before Q2 2011 - if they're lucky. The slurry pipe is the big worry - 11 k across some pretty dramatic country - I'm probably wrong (again) but I'd look to pick them up for sub dollar NZ.

macduffy

24-06-2011, 04:14 PM

Hi drillfix.

Not so sure about the "true Coal man" bit but I have had some success with the odd coal stock over the years - notably Austral, Cenntennial (who took over Austral), even a small win with RCI. But it was really a bit of knowledge of the background to the Buller project, particularly the fact that the permits concerned had once been held by Solid Energy and virtually surrounded the Stockton mine, that got me interested.

I'm not averse to taking a bit of profit from BTU from time to time and I'm certainly not a "long haul through thick and thin" type.

I havn't looked seriously at MTE. You can't kiss all the girls!

drillfix

24-06-2011, 05:21 PM

No worries there Macduff~! Sounds all quite logical and thanks for clarifying that.

tony64peter

26-06-2011, 07:28 PM

http://westportnews.co.nz/friday.pdf Hearing adjorned half way through a submission from one of the Fairdown residents. Sounds like a deal has been done and they have withdrawn their objections.

tony64peter

26-06-2011, 07:35 PM

Q2 2011???
not sure about holding at the moment since there's down side when the market realises that profit is further off than initially thought. I don't see the infrastructure being built before q2 2011 - if they're lucky. The slurry pipe is the big worry - 11 k across some pretty dramatic country - i'm probably wrong (again) but i'd look to pick them up for sub dollar nz.

Casa del Energia

27-06-2011, 10:41 AM

Q2 2011???

Q2 2012. Sorry about that - time travel is not advocated.

Despite the hearing being adjourned, it's still Q2 2011 (just my opinion) - - if they have the steel pipes already stock piled - then they are hidden quite well, and judging by the progress on the hydro development at lake Rochford (Bathurst plan to use the same track up the hill) it must take at least that long to build it as the hydro people have been mucking about for at least a year up there. Still, it's only been local contractors working up there - Brightwater will probably truck in equipement.

Casa del Energia

27-06-2011, 10:54 AM

PS. Just FYI - my interest isn't entirely from a holding point of view. (Having still holding Pike shares, I'm well aware of the delay syndrome) but I've got rentals in Westport - but in my case delays are good in a way, because it smooths out demand - becuase Stockton recently expanded, the rental market is very tight. The down side to that is house prices have been creeping up - it is now very difficult to increase the house portfolio. It would have been nicer for me if Bathurst would have come along a year later than they have.
Every silver lining has a cloud.

macduffy

27-06-2011, 11:32 AM

Thanks for declaring your other interest, Casa. I think the rest of us would like BTU's project to proceed as smoothly and quickly as possible!

macduffy

28-06-2011, 04:40 PM

CLSA Investments have initiated coverage of BTU with a Buy recommendation.

They have a "conservative" 12 month price target of $A1.50. More aggressive production assumptions increases this to $A2.50.

I've never come across CLSA before but this is one of the most comprehensive analyses I've seen for some time. Well worth the read.

http://www.bathurstresources.com/files/files/904_20110621_CLSA_Initiate_Coverage.pdf

tony64peter

29-06-2011, 12:32 PM

Thanks good read.

CLSA Investments have initiated coverage of BTU with a Buy recommendation.

They have a "conservative" 12 month price target of $A1.50. More aggressive production assumptions increases this to $A2.50.

I've never come across CLSA before but this is one of the most comprehensive analyses I've seen for some time. Well worth the read.

http://www.bathurstresources.com/files/files/904_20110621_CLSA_Initiate_Coverage.pdf

tony64peter

30-06-2011, 03:28 PM

"Holcim" cement is proposing to build a new plant at Oamaru and if it goes ahead then they will close the Westport facilities. More pressure for Bathurst's consent to be approved.

tony64peter

01-07-2011, 11:06 AM

JPM has bought another 10m shares

macduffy

05-07-2011, 07:19 AM

With the resource consent hearing scheduled to re-commence tomorrow, the SP gained 9c in Aust yesterday. As tony has observed, the Holcim factor is probably at play here too.

tony64peter

06-07-2011, 12:56 PM

Check this out. Could be very profitable if true.http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/04/us-climate-sulphur-idUSTRE7634IQ20110704

Casa del Energia

06-07-2011, 01:21 PM

Check this out. Could be very profitable if true.http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/04/us-climate-sulphur-idUSTRE7634IQ20110704

I'm a bit puzzled about how it is profitable. But what is most encouraging is the comments on the article. They seem to fall into the 'distrust the climate scientists' and 'global warming is a hoax' category. The last thing we need at the moment is people to get up in arms about global warming. As a coal mining district (and I must admit, could actually do with a warmer climate - although the rain is already more than enough!), the last thing needed here is general acceptance of the effects of C02 on climate.

Price up again today - looks like I was wrong (as usual) about the delays causing the price to fall off the edge.

macduffy

06-07-2011, 05:17 PM

I doubt whether the global warming issue will affect BTU's profitability to a great extent. BTU's coal will be used in steel making and unless there's a new technique developed to exclude coking coal in this process, I don't see much detriment or benefit either way. A different matter where thermal coal is used in electricity generation, however.

tony64peter

07-07-2011, 08:50 AM

Have been investing in thermal coal in China for sometime as I lean towards the "Peak Oil" theory. The cost of exploration will send oil to over $200/b in the coming future. Coal in all forms IMO will coatail in price. Also hold LDK [solar panel] in case I'm wrong.

West Coast regional council expects a decision today on BTU's consent.http://westportnews.co.nz/wednesday.pdf

Casa del Energia

12-07-2011, 05:28 PM

On second thoughts, I push my coal production prediction out to Q3 2012. Viz:

"As part of that process Doc had to consult with the
local conservation board and the local iwi.
BCL could not proceed without Doc concessions
and access permits, even with council consent.
Doc would have to consult the public if it intended
to grant the concessions.
Mr Newsam said he was hopeful a decision would
be reached by the end of the year but there were no
guarantees." (Westport News 11 Jul)

The above was even a surprise to me - I had no idea that the Doc concessions were so far behind. So even with no consent hold up, December production never was possible. This whole thing is becoming very similar to trying to run through 3ft deep gelatin.

macduffy

13-07-2011, 01:43 PM

From Stuff, today.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/5275431/Denniston-mine-plan-favoured

macduffy

21-07-2011, 12:55 PM

BTU completes Brookdale asset acquisition.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110721/pdf/41zwmg3t8vwflm.pdf

macduffy

26-07-2011, 08:31 AM

From FN Arena:

"Credit Suisse rates BTU as Outperform (1) - Credit Suisse has lifted price forecasts for hard coking coal. As Bathurst Resources is not expected to commence production before 2013, there are no changes to earnings forecasts for the immediate future. The higher price forecasts do have a positive impact on the stockbroker's unrisked valuation for the stock (now at $2.38).
CS analysts point out this company has the potential to become a low cost, high margin coal producer. In the meantime, Outperform rating maintained in combination with a price target of $1.50 (unchanged).

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.33 If BTU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY11 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.80 cents .

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 41.79.

Market Sentiment: 1.0 "

tony64peter

28-07-2011, 09:49 AM

Decision expected last week in August. http://westportnews.co.nz/tuesday.pdf

macduffy

08-08-2011, 01:27 PM

Decision expected last week in August. http://westportnews.co.nz/tuesday.pdf

News release from the company confirms that a decision is expected not later than 26 August.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110808/pdf/42083ydc524vjr.pdf

tony64peter

13-08-2011, 01:53 PM

Casa del Energia

16-08-2011, 12:36 PM

BTU has applied for an exploration permit near Mokihinui. http://westportnews.co.nz/friday.pdf. They are spreading themselves around. Although they have said otherwise I wonder if Pike is on their radar?

It might be a tall order to bring coal out of the Seddonville area again. The rail line now finishes at the solid energy bins - after Hector, the line to Seddonville was ripped up years ago. The road between Mohikinui and Seddonville is as good as single lane in places, the trucks will be down to second gear in a few spots.
I have to wonder if this has been thought through - there was a big furor over mining the Denniston plateau - which essentially barren scrub land - that Mohikinui river valley is untouched climatic bush (And full of more of those pesky snails) -- Don't bite off too much, guys - there's already big delay in getting Denniston going, it's already hard to see how to get up and running without going back to the market, specially since the SP has been slipping ever since it became apparent how difficult it will be to get going up at Denniston. AND - until someone shows me how you deal with hammerlock on such a steep slurry pipe made of plastic - I remain on the sidelines.

tony64peter

18-08-2011, 12:25 PM

Its probably a smokescreen to distract the greenies from an appeal to upcoming resouce consent.

It might be a tall order to bring coal out of the Seddonville area again. The rail line now finishes at the solid energy bins - after Hector, the line to Seddonville was ripped up years ago. The road between Mohikinui and Seddonville is as good as single lane in places, the trucks will be down to second gear in a few spots.
I have to wonder if this has been thought through - there was a big furor over mining the Denniston plateau - which essentially barren scrub land - that Mohikinui river valley is untouched climatic bush (And full of more of those pesky snails) -- Don't bite off too much, guys - there's already big delay in getting Denniston going, it's already hard to see how to get up and running without going back to the market, specially since the SP has been slipping ever since it became apparent how difficult it will be to get going up at Denniston. AND - until someone shows me how you deal with hammerlock on such a steep slurry pipe made of plastic - I remain on the sidelines.

macduffy

18-08-2011, 02:57 PM

Hi tony - and others.

I must say the same thought had occurred to me. A small pawn to sacrifice at an opportune time, perhaps?

Casa del Energia

19-08-2011, 01:02 PM

Hi tony - and others.

I must say the same thought had occurred to me. A small pawn to sacrifice at an opportune time, perhaps?

If that is the case - dangerous tactic. They already have the likes of Fitzsimons turning up to resource hearings, why create a diversion when it should be apparent that the whole of the 'army' is needed on the main front. The last thing needed is to keep in the newspapers and provide a pulpit for every evangelist shout from. And it divides management resource - badly needed for the main front.

And Meridian won't be happy with a spotlight going back on their project - it's always best to try not to tread on toes that don't need treading on.

And I'm not happy - if this turns into a bigger furor than it needs to be, people start to realise that hundereds of extra workers are still years away…town property values will suffer.

macduffy

19-08-2011, 01:51 PM

Whichever way one looks at it, BTU have caused a diversion by applying for the Mokihinui exploration permit at this time.

Best we can hope for is that they know what they're doing. The other alternative is to quit BTU and leave them to it. I'm holding meanwhile.

tony64peter

25-08-2011, 01:17 PM

Casa del Energia

25-08-2011, 02:09 PM

130 workers at the cement works will be looking for a job if Holcim pulls out. Surely more workers would mean more demand for housing and higher prices.

CASA DEL ENERGIA""And I'm not happy - if this turns into a bigger furor than it needs to be, people start to realise that hundereds of extra workers are still years away…town property values will suffer.""

Yes - I agree, Sorry if I gave a different impression. The bottom line is that we know that Holcim will move - someday. But if they move before Denniston or Mohikinui or the hydro above Granity gets up and going, then housing demand pressure will ease off. And also, as with all markets, there is 'sentiment' -- what people think it will be like in (e.g.) five years time. If the sentiment changes from bullish for Westport properties to 'bear' because they see no new jobs within five years property becomes static (and at 5% inflation that means an unrealised capital loss).
At the moment, you can't find anything not a shack for under 200K. That doesn't sound very high if you're a Sydney based BTU investor but historically is very 'boom' like by Westport standards - - but too many delays and perceptions will change - Holcim or not.
At any rate - I can't see Holcim going within 5 years - - the statement that their board wants the exact guaranteed build costs must be cover smoke - - I think they're delaying until increased cement demand has been well established.

Casa del Energia

25-08-2011, 02:27 PM

BTW - (got a bit distracted by the cross talk about property sentiment) my real interest here is in the sp .. . a cunning and secret plan to watch it slide after the initial enthusiasm, when the usual difficulties become apparent and pick BTU up cheap… just as I did with pike river (although that didn't turn out to be such a flash idea in the end anyway.)

tony64peter

25-08-2011, 03:29 PM

With the resource decision due out tomorrow at latest might be time to buy if one is an optimist. Holcim needs a new plant/process to reduce the carbon tax issues, I would be surprised if they took 5years to have that up and running.

tony64peter

26-08-2011, 05:08 PM

Trading halt. Consent for mine and coal prep plant have been given. ASX.COM.AU

macduffy

26-08-2011, 05:47 PM

Trading halt. Consent for mine and coal prep plant have been given. ASX.COM.AU

Good news so far!

Now let's see what the "terms and conditions" are.

karen1

29-08-2011, 12:23 PM

The latest: http://www.bathurstresources.com/files/files/949_20110829_Escarpment_Mine_Granted_Resource_Cons ents.pdf

Casa del Energia

30-08-2011, 04:57 PM

OK, now I'm nonplussed. I can understand the price notching up a good gain on the consent announcement but followed by such a steep fall to below $1 AUD so quickly after is a bit odd.
I wouldn't think it was the announcement by Forest and Bird that they'd appeal - that's a given. So this is a mystery.
Also, a fair assumption would be that the Govt. is giving a guiding hand behind the scenes (as rumour has it with the pike aftermath sale and the fact that it's dead keen on more mining) so it's full steam ahead with only the usual hurdles to cross.

kiwitrev

21-09-2011, 09:12 AM

macduffy

21-09-2011, 11:16 AM

Ive quit the last of my BTU for a good profit. I'm still confident that the Buller project will go ahead but delays are compounding the risks.It's been good to me but the risk is all on the downside at present so I'll wait for an upturn before re-assessing.

drillfix

21-09-2011, 02:54 PM

Well worded there Macduff and your reasoning is also very understandable.

Adding to the risk is the Technicals which both the 60 minute chart has fallen over making lower lows, and the daily now triggering off EMA crossover signals which will also drive many to exit.

Overall I would say good move~!

Casa del Energia

21-09-2011, 09:05 PM

It looks like the appeals process has spooked the market. Down yesterday on ASX 11.5% to 77c on heavier than normal volume following already heavy losses. I do not hold but this looks like a classic case of get in to make heaps or get out to preserve capital. Any educated guesses on how the appeals process will end?

How will the appeals go? Forest and bird will probably bring the most points of law into the court, have a feeling they will cite precident as well. The Res assoc will probably bring up the district plan so it's going to be tricky. The problem is that this is an appellant court and is restricted in its decision by the Act - unlike commisioners who are not.
Upshot - a long time in court, and at best an outcome with restrictions as long as your arm. That equals more delay as there will be a ton of design re-engineering and perhaps even site relocations. This is a right pickle. But they probably didn't realise just how difficult it is to stay inside the RMA when they started - hence the rosy tinted end of 2011 production date.
So, wait for 20c NZ before buying (?)

Anna Naum

23-09-2011, 08:22 PM

Comment from Goldman Sachs

BTU (BUY) is very good value providing it gets environmental approvals and executes well. Without approvals the stock would be worth little.

Posted for interest only, I do not own BTU but have it on my watch page and I am thinking about buying some.

tony64peter

28-09-2011, 10:52 AM

macduffy

28-09-2011, 04:38 PM

If the 1Mwatt generator in the link below is a goer then its time to get out of all hydro carbon fuel investments. Nickel will sky rocket. Suppose to be operating Oct 11.
http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=473

I must admit to not understanding one word of that article!
Not sure how it relates to BTU though, who are looking to mine coking coal used in making steel. Presumably, steel will still be required but I have a couple of (currently losing) side bets in nickel miners as a possible saver!

tony64peter

28-09-2011, 05:46 PM

I must admit to not understanding one word of that article!
Not sure how it relates to BTU though, who are looking to mine coking coal used in making steel. Presumably, steel will still be required but I have a couple of (currently losing) side bets in nickel miners as a possible saver! Andrea Rossi is claiming to have had an energy catalyst generator "E Cat" using Ni and Hydrogen, with very short life radiation ie no greater than back ground levels, operating for around six months. He claims shortly to announce a 1mwatt machine for production producing at 1 cent per kwatt hour. Thermal coal will take a substantial hit if true as this technology will retro fit easily into coal fired power stations. If thermal coal is a fraction of today's prices then unless coking coal reduces also, it will be more cost effective to use higher ash coals in steel production. He claims that this technology will power ships and trains within two years and cars in about 5 years. Nickel will be in high demand. Personally I hope this is a ruse as I will take a big hit in China. Looks real at this stage so selling fast.

Aotea

28-09-2011, 06:06 PM

Having quite an understanding of the RMA environment and the appellants to the consents,my view and I stress this is solely my personal view- i cant see these environment court cases going away quickly. I dont hold BTU,nor do I plan on holding any. Am simply saying,as someone who knows the appellants, and the process, I wouldnt hold my breath as to the issues going away in the near or immediate future...

tony64peter

29-09-2011, 08:31 AM

Further to my previous post. Stayed up last night to sell on the US market and did more investigation re the E-Cat. Rossi claims to have made a Low Energy Nuclear Reaction device and operates from a prominent engineering university in Bologna, Italy. His Youtube presentations seem credible EXCEPT for the omission of the energy required to produce the Hydrogen.I'm now more a sceptic than a believer

Casa del Energia

30-09-2011, 10:57 AM

If the 1Mwatt generator in the link below is a goer then its time to get out of all hydro carbon fuel investments. Nickel will sky rocket. Suppose to be operating Oct 11.
http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=473

Interesting article. But I don't think it will produce energy. Everything if fine until you ask the question - how much energy (MeV) does it take to inject a proton in Ni58. The answer is massive. Now, I see the claim is that you somehow side-step this by 'disquising' a proton-electron pair as a neutron and 'slip it into' the Ni58 nucleus through the back door. This seems highly unlikely to me since the energy difference between (effectively) atomic hydrogen and a neutron is a neutrino (yes! Nobody has mentioned neutrinos in the discussion) and a pretty high energy gamma ray.
What I find dodgy is this proton-electron pair disguised as a neutron - unless someone shows me a function that describes such an thing that has the same symmetry as a neutron (because it will have to interact with the residual strong force in the nucleus as a neutron) …….. then I will not rush out to disinvest in thermal coal!!

tony64peter

06-10-2011, 06:24 PM

tony64peter

07-10-2011, 02:32 PM

Whilst I am still in the sceptic camp, this is starting to gain world media attention and the test yesterday appears to have been a success with over 30 scientists in attendance.

"They have all gone on the record to say that they believe that there is a nuclear reaction taking place, " says Acland, "that the levels of energy output the E-Cat produces could not come from a chemical reaction."
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2011-10/06/e-cat-cold-fusion

W (http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2011-10/06/e-cat-cold-fusion)ill need to be watched.

Casa del Energia

07-10-2011, 03:11 PM

Rossi claims to have invited leading scientists from around the world and patent investigators to tomorrows 1m/watt demonstration at Bologna university. Apparently the media won't get to observe this machine in action until the end of Oct. Tomorrow he will be a dam fool or possibly the saviour of the world. The nickel in a US 5 cent piece will supposedly have the same energy as 5 barrels of oil if his machine works.http://coldfusionnow.wordpress.com/2011/10/04/oil-to-nickel-the-e-cat-energy-equivalence/.

Ok - I'll stick my neck out. It's a crock. I don't know what the result of the demo will be but here are some problems:

Where is the Gamma radiation?
Why does it produce copper isotopes in naturally occuring ratios?
Why is it still a black-box? (there are still no construction details)
How come no one else replicated it?

Buy coal - at least coal combustion is well known and works (and there's no residual radiation!)...

.. but not Bathurst just yet. April next year production is also a dream.

By the way - it's starting to look like the Higgs boson actually doesn't exist and the results from measuring neutrinos
going faster than light is being peer reviewed. If these things turn out to be correct - it's bigger than this nickel-copper
cooker thingie - - we're in for another revolution in thinking .. something even bigger than the Beetles.

macduffy

07-10-2011, 04:03 PM

.. but not Bathurst just yet. April next year production is also a dream.

I agree with that. Plenty of time to watch for the TA signals signifying the go-ahead before getting set on this one again.

How about starting a separate thread for the Rossi invention? Hardly going to have any impact on BTU's fortunes.

Casa del Energia

12-10-2011, 10:37 AM

I agree with that. Plenty of time to watch for the TA signals signifying the go-ahead before getting set on this one again.

How about starting a separate thread for the Rossi invention? Hardly going to have any impact on BTU's fortunes.

Yes - best keep Rossi off this thread - even if it's a good subject for hot debate - it has little to do with BTU fortunes.
Have you noticed the increase in trades on the NZX - and also sudden increase in sp outstripping the corresponding increase on the ASX. It's been going up on the ASX but only about in step with other resource stocks there. ..So I must admit, I'm not sure what's driving this stock at the moment.

What does the market know that I don't?

macduffy

13-10-2011, 12:43 PM

I saw Hamish Bohannan interviewed on TVOne's business programme this morning - recorded and viewed at a more civilised hour! Didn't say anything new of course but made a good case for the project and the economic benefits to the area.

I'll wait a bit but the market seems to be betting on an eventual favourable outcome.

Casa del Energia

18-10-2011, 11:35 AM

Rumour number 354; Testing at the coal facility site, down on the flat, showed the ground to be too unfirm. The rumour is that they have purchased a failed cranberry farm just along the road – maybe they’ll re-locate there.

Casa del Energia

25-10-2011, 09:07 AM

Rumour confirmed. (well, semi confirmed – by talking to locals). They have bought another site on the flat about 7k out of Westport – the cranberry farm. Also building a road, in the same area, to a further site where they already have consent to stockpile coal – this appears to be to load their coal from the coalbrookdale mine, which they had previously purchased.

tony64peter

25-10-2011, 02:49 PM

macduffy

28-10-2011, 02:55 PM

This article by Stephen Bartholomeusz, while not specifically about BTU, points to the potential value in that company's Buller project.

"When Peabody Energy and its partner ArcelorMittal declared their offer for Macarthur Coal unconditional yesterday evening it marked more than the end of a protracted takeover battle.

Macarthur was the last of the significant independent and producing coking coal groups. While there is a raft of coking coal hopefuls, the emergence of another producer of significance is probably some years away.

The rarity in this market of an independent, and therefore available, coking coal group with significant existing production – and the length of the lead times necessary to bring new resources into production – provides a context for the fierce bidding despite the volatility and uncertainty that has prevailed over the 18 months that Peabody stalked Macarthur.

The Macarthur board, which was criticised in some quarters for rebuffing Peabody’s initial advances in May last year, clearly understood the value of their company’s unique position, made even more unusual because of its status as the world’s largest producer of low-volatile pulverised coal injection material used in steel making.

Their stand in rejecting the original Peabody approach, which valued their company at about $3.3 billion, has been vindicated by the eventual outcome, with Peabody and ArcelorMittal ultimately raising the offer to $4.9 billion. If the bidders end up with more than 90 per cent of Macarthur, the $16.25 a share offer price would represent a premium of about 50 per cent to the level at which Macarthur shares were trading ahead of Peabody’s return.

It is worth noting that China’s CITIC, with a 25.2 per cent shareholding, held out against the offer until it became clear that it couldn’t find partners willing to help it out-bid Peabody.

The willingness of Peabody and ArcelorMittal to pay the price they did, and CITIC’s reluctance to sell, highlights the disconnect between sharemarket investors and trade buyers when it comes to understanding the strategic value of resources.

Commodity prices and the shares of commodity producers are driven by short-term influences, responding to the latest tidbits of news out of Europe or China. The companies have a better understanding of their long-term needs and take a longer term view of their customers’ requirements.

That Peabody and ArcelorMittal were prepared to pay such a big price for Macarthur is effectively a $4.9 billion vote of confidence in the medium-term outlook for steel production, as well as a reflection on the dearth of available producing coking coal mines – most of which are owned by the big diversified resource houses.

It also probably says something about the appeal of Australian coking coal. Apart from Australia's relatively stable jurisdiction (mining profit taxes excepted), Australian coking coal is regarded as of high quality and it has the advantage, with other bulk commodities, over other major producing nations of being located relatively close to the customers – China and India – with insatiable appetites for the essential ingredients in steelmaking.

In the absence of a global economic meltdown that demand for coal and iron ore isn’t going to diminish in the foreseeable future. When the next Macarthur emerges in a few years’ time it will be interesting to see whether the market has a better appreciation of its strategic value. "

tony64peter

03-11-2011, 05:31 PM

Solid Energy to join the appeal. They claim that the RMA has no jurisdiction over what happens to coal after it is mined.

"Somerville said Solid Energy had applied to speak about whether councils had to consider the potential effects of burning coal when looking at resource
consent applications for mining.
“We do not think the Resource Management Act
allows this and we would like an opportunity to put
our views before the court,” said Mr Somerville.
An Environment Court spokeswoman said that
apart from Bathurst and the three appellants, Solid
Energy would be joined by council staff keen to support their original decision, council subsidiary Buller
Holdings, and lay litigant Terry Sumner who would
support the appellants.
A date has yet to be set for the hearing."

If price bounces back tomorrow may be time to buy as it seems to be in channel at present with a sell around 80.

tony64peter

17-11-2011, 09:57 AM

LABOUR will halt development on the Denniston Plateau.

West Coast-Tasman MP Chris Auchinvole is challenging Labour to
come clean with the West Coast on its
mining policy.
He was responding to front bench
Labour MP Maryan Street’s comments
opposing mining on the Denniston
Plateau and supporting a moratorium
on fossil fuel extraction.
Mr Auchinvole said Ms Street had let
the cat out of the bag. Labour would
shut down the West Coast’s coal mining industry costing hundreds of jobs
– “just like they shut down our forest
industry when last in Government”, he said.
Ms Street made her comments at a public climate
change debate in Nelson in September that was
filmed for Youtube

macduffy

18-11-2011, 01:47 PM

Hamish Bohannan gives an update on the company and the appeals process in a teleconference.

(Hope this link works!)

http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?showtopic=10894

It's a 31 minute tape but quite worth listening to with the bulk comprising questions from mainly NZ analysts - and HB's answers, of course!

Aotea

19-11-2011, 12:50 PM

Appeals are goingto take at least 12-18 months...anyone who does research on the appelants will see what thier motive and method is. I agree BTU has many strong attributes for a buy, but this in my opinion is a dead duck untill at least the end of 2012, maybe 2013...over time the SP will fall as holders get frustrated/ desperate/ have better opportunities. there will be a better time to buy...

As for SENZ getting involved in the appeal as a s274 party, they are merely trying to bolster thier position for further lignite extraction in Southland and realise that this arguement could be a major battle later down the line, so they are simply putting it out there and testing the water/ planting the seed.

Disc: dont hold, and will not as I prefer ZYL and others.

macduffy

28-11-2011, 12:05 PM

First coal exports from Buller project.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20111128/pdf/422vkt9cqj1mzz.pdf

Good news, but not the really big issue for BTU!

macduffy

07-12-2011, 09:01 AM

Citi initiates coverage with a Buy rating.

From FN Arena.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=FC2C33F3-C00C-909E-4ACBE447B4D4E2FF

karen1

07-12-2011, 09:14 AM

For your interest:

http://www.brr.com.au/event/89796

Casa del Energia

07-12-2011, 04:57 PM

For your interest:

http://www.brr.com.au/event/89796

Cripes, not a lot of freeboard on that vessel – Good thing they won’t go through the cook straight.

Also for your interest

http://westportnews.co.nz/tuesday.pdf - “Denniston mine plans slammed”

Some ‘green’ businessmen joining in with Forest & Bird

Also a minor PR goof by hiring the security firm that was previously caught spying on protestors:

http://westportnews.co.nz/monday.pdf - “Bathurst hires ‘spy’ firm” . (Not a good look - could have been avoided with a bit of background checking.)

And coupled with a possible downgrade of French & German debt,
Softening coal prices,
Baltic Dry index fall back Oct/Nov,
Indian inflation, slowing manufacturing sector
Chinese risk: Reduced growth - looming property bubble, plus overbuilt ‘show’ infrastructure (who really needs maglev trains?)
Queensland coal shipments back in full swing,
Bogged down in the Environment Court,
Coal dewatering plant land problems – ground too swampy to support more than one garden shed. Extra spend to buy alternative land further up the road.

So.. I’m a bit puzzled by Citi’s buy rating and for the above reasons I’d say publicly that they won’t be mining Denniston before end of 2013. Privately, I think there’s a 20% chance it will never happen – but I won’t say that out loud in case they’re mining by this June and I then look like a total wally.
I still don’t hold any shares – but more to the point for me is when I need to start thinking of putting local property on the market before the rest of the heard wakes up to the delays.

karen1

24-01-2012, 07:44 PM

From Hamish Bohannan:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/comment/6302687/Modern-miner-shares-sustainability-aims

Casa del Energia

25-01-2012, 12:43 PM

From Hamish Bohannan:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/comment/6302687/Modern-miner-shares-sustainability-aims

Inrtresting article. Although I wish people would get thier facts straight..one of the comenters to the article said that the coal there is lignite - it isn't it is sub bituminous at worst and in some places - anthracte - highest quality.
As for the jobs aspect - more than true, it's boom time in Westport - from what I can best determine - house prices have increased by 25% since bathurst took over from L&M -- this appears to be partly due to Bathurst ramping up but still mostly from labour demand from Stockton. Normally I'd say that the market there was fully priced but if you are looking to rent there - you might as well give up and pitch a tent - the place probably has the worst housing shortage in NZ - and when Bathurst finally starts hiring for the denniston open cast - it will become more acute. For the land speculators of you out there - I can see another 10-15% increase in proprty there - but that is dependent on bathurt getting into serious production.
I'm still holding off buying btu shares though. More generally, I'm a hold on resources anyway - I still think China is in for a descent sized bubble burst. But I seem to be swimmimg against the tide of opinion on that one.

macduffy

07-02-2012, 09:08 AM

BTU received a "please explain" from the ASX yesterday following the recent strong rise in SP and traded volumes. The usual "We know nothing that hasn't already been announced" from the company.

Could be just speculation in a generally strong Aussie market but of course I'm hoping that where there's smoke there's also fire!

Casa del Energia

07-02-2012, 03:09 PM

It is probably a combo of all of the above. Certainly, I’ve been treated well over the last week by aussie resource (and I re-state here again, I’m still not a BTU holder).. but for those with their ears to the ground – it could be that they are stumbling over gossip in the ‘local pub’ about how far <bold>advanced revised plans </bold> really are and how a <bold>certain roadblock is going to be lifted </bold>. And, certainly I would never say BUY on unsubstantiated rumours - - (although it is said that the market price is based on the sum of all knowledge across the market place.)

Casa del Energia

07-02-2012, 03:53 PM

Addendum.

A more concrete indication that things are starting to rock-n-roll with BTU is that rents in Westport are rising strongly as are house prices. Take a gander at one of the local land agents web sites, look for available rentals and observe how few there are available (on one site there is just a skodie little bed sitter and nothing else). These ‘strengthenings’ have accelerated in the last six months – unlikely now to be just the Stockton mine operations ramping up as that really happened more than a year ago Since Westport is a town so small, you can stand on one side, spit across it and hit the opposite town boundary – there is nothing much else happening..so a reasonable conclusion is that it’s mostly due to ‘The Bathurst effect’.

karen1

08-02-2012, 07:44 PM

http://http://www.companyinsight.net.au/Recent-Interviews

Haven't finished reading it myself yet, but thought some might be interested.

Aotea

08-02-2012, 07:50 PM

Rentals are on the rise for several reasons. They are regarded as cheap and Nelson businessmen have been known to buy 10-15 houses on speculation without even seeing a house. Oceana Gold's mining project there has had a lot to do with rental demands also.

I agree with you Casa, 20% they never mine is fair. Nothing has changed for an environment court perspective- they are in it deep and the appellants will not budge. You could give their green groups a million bucks and they wouldnt budge. Nothing will be happening here before end of 2013. As I said before, I dont hold and dont intend to, am simply putting it out there based on my personal knowledge of some driving the green groups. They have staunch opposition. If it hasnt happened yet, it is due any weekend now where a group of 80+ people including ecologists etc who are doing a biodiversity investigation of the tenement. It will discover new flora/fauna/fungi and they will be added to the green arguement.
As I said before, ZYL is a safer buy irrespective of what is in the ground.

Casa del Energia

09-02-2012, 04:24 PM

.......... If it hasnt happened yet, it is due any weekend now where a group of 80+ people including ecologists etc who are doing a biodiversity investigation of the tenement. It will discover new flora/fauna/fungi and they will be added to the green arguement.
As I said before, ZYL is a safer buy irrespective of what is in the ground.

(Speaking green concerns and nothing much to do with coal mining).. I remember one of the concerns is about insectivorous plants on the plateau - and how endangered they are.. well, from my memory at least two of the main species up there are actually found in australia and other places - same species - scattered all over the planet, hardly endangered. Personally, I am concerned about environment stuff as well, but everyone needs to stick to facts - it does no one any good to have to wade through a lot of the stuff the cattle left behind.

Aotea

09-02-2012, 08:52 PM

Fair call, what this mob did with the giant land snail powelliwhanta (sic) is to do phylogenetic testing and determined it had significant enough variation to call it a seperate subspecies and with that special protection for the special subset. they have the backing of smart legals and plenty of ecological brains. I have had many hours up in the plateau, and to be fair I dont have a view either way on BTU's projects, except maybe that the profits from extraction in nz should be retained there which is a moot point in itself...

Casa del Energia

10-02-2012, 03:12 PM

Yes, there's the answer to our question!

I would expect it to be accompanied by some further good results from the drill, or other encouraging news!

Yes - that'll be it. And note that ASX resource stock is weak today but BTU was still roaring ahead.

Casa del Energia

29-02-2012, 10:13 AM

Bathurst moving domicle to Wellington, NZ.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/6495847/Bathursts-growth-prompts-Wellington-move

Also, have a look at thier web site - look at the PR video - it's quite good - the port handling facility is going to expand the port by 50% looking at the graphic - that 'barge' is a reasonably sized ship.

macduffy

29-02-2012, 11:57 AM

Bathurst moving domicle to Wellington, NZ.

Perhaps.

"Board has not yet voted on the proposal"

If tax considerations make this too expensive perhaps BTU will settle for a nice corporate office in Wellington, leaving domicile in Aust. Clearly they want to be more closely identified with NZ but the big majority of the shares/shareholders are still Australian.

Casa del Energia

20-03-2012, 04:00 PM

Cat is out of bag over new coal handling location. Aerial ropeway to Waimangarara seems to be a better idea - shorter and less technically demanding.

http://westportnews.co.nz/monday.pdf

At any rate it had become widly known that the Powerhouse road site would be 'difficullt' becuase it is very swampy - the farmer who used to own the land years ago had to tie farm fence posts to the rail line becuase the ground wouldn't hold them (Until NZR found out and made him remove the tie back. The swampyness is a probable reason to purchase the cranberry farm further up the road.

macduffy

27-04-2012, 03:15 PM

"Local residents withdraw appeal to Environment Court."

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120427/pdf/425v9s187k2hl4.pdf

And yes, C del E, BTU has opted for the aerial ropeway!

macduffy

27-04-2012, 05:04 PM

And further comment.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/6817225/Rethink-for-Bathurst-Resources

Casa del Energia

27-04-2012, 05:25 PM

"Local residents withdraw appeal to Environment Court."

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120427/pdf/425v9s187k2hl4.pdf

And yes, C del E, BTU has opted for the aerial ropeway!

Yusss!! It's the only option that makes sense.

AND.. the local economy is ticking along quite nicely anyway but this will give a little extra turbo for the rest of the year.

A good key ‘Buller Economic Indicator’ is how hard it is to get a cheap flight to Westport – which now difficult. I flew down in April – flight was chokka, booked for June – only a couple of seats left.. and I had to pay three arms and a leg. With all the consulting engineers, drillers, et al that will be needed by Bathurst – there will be standing passengers on the flights before you know it.

Anyway – here’s some local rumour and unsubstantiated gossip – ‘they say’ that the land purchased where the cranberry farm is will be used for worker housing. Some dude also said that ‘they’ were buying up sections at the end of Beach Road (there’s a beach front subdivision there that’s been on the market since Adam was a Cowboy) . Now, this is probably all BS but when they do start seriously ramping up – there will be NO accommodation – rents have already gone into orbit because of Stockton expanding.

Boom town rats..

Take a look at the Westport News webcam (looks down on the main st) – count the vehicles passing by – I make it to be about one every five seconds – do the maths – about 8,000 journeys per day (in a town popn of 6,000). The town is buzzing. So – although this thread is the BTU share thread – think laterally, perhaps not buy the shares – invest in the town itself (a bit like the people who set up general stores on the Otago goldfields – they are the ones who made the fortunes – not the miners.)

macduffy

27-04-2012, 06:36 PM

Thanks, C del E, for the local flavour!

You're probably right about the "shovels not shares" advice but it's so much easier to hold a few BTU!

BTW, How are you managing without your three legs?

Casa del Energia

30-04-2012, 10:39 AM

Thanks, C del E, for the local flavour!

You're probably right about the "shovels not shares" advice but it's so much easier to hold a few BTU!

BTW, How are you managing without your three legs?

What three legs? – I have no limbs left since my daughter decided to fly down as well – an even later booking, even higher cost – I had to sell a couple of organs as well.

So I will probably never hold BTU – Air NZ has got all my spare investment money.

macduffy

25-06-2012, 11:25 AM

Here's a bullish view on BTU.

http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/29251-4-dirt-cheap-coking-coal-stocks.html

May not mean a lot unless/until the environmental appeals are decided.

kiwitrev

27-06-2012, 01:36 PM

Hi MacD
I havn't been paying much attn to this thread for a while now so don't have a feel for how the appeals process will go. To state the obvious everything depends on the outcome. So with SP around 50c (better to buy ASX at 35c) is this a good entry point. Fundamentals look great so looking for replacement for my CWK sale to WHC (takeover). Be a bit ironic if I get in as I hold GLL in Oz (prev. sold NZ coal assets to BTU).

Casa del Energia

30-07-2012, 03:06 PM

The news from Westport: (just returned from there yesterday) Bathurst has a helicopter going flat out each work day delivering supplies and equipment to drillers in the area between Dennistion and about 3 kms south of lake Rochford – using a sling under the chopper (Hughes 500 by the look of it). ‘Locals’ say they are exploring the area from Denniston southward. Still no word on exactly where and how they’re going to set up the aerial ropeway or conveyor the denniston coal.

tim23

31-07-2012, 06:28 PM

Just made a spec buy on handful of these might get some of my $ back from PRC losses!?

Casa del Energia

06-08-2012, 03:46 PM

Just made a spec buy on handful of these might get some of my $ back from PRC losses!?

Well, probably a good punt – price is ultra cheap, they are still serious about the Buller District: the building of the wharf facilities are well under way (even the whitebaters are losing their access to the wharf after this season). They’re drilling holes in the ground left right and centre sizing up coal reserves for the future – so it definitely looks like speed bumps in China aren’t going to put them off. Probably perfect time to grab a handful of shares as odds are they’ve beavering away getting the site for the coal load out facility lined up – perhaps make progress public after the environment hearing. The difference between this and ‘just another’ punt is there is no indication on the ground that Bathurst is anything but full steam ahead. I’d be in myself if I weren’t so exposed to the town already and for the fact I’ve recently spent all my pocket money on ‘safety utility’ shares. (Must be getting older and over cautious).

BTW – just remembered, probably nothing related but the HDL people (the small hydro-scheme that was/is going to share part of their track for the coal slurry pipe) have made some progress recently in that a brand new (looks like) 66kva line has been installed at the bottom of the track going into town (assume to the main substation), also Bathurst is using a newly bulldoesedout helicopter landing pad half way up HDLs track – so both outfits still seem to be going gangbusters.

tim23

08-08-2012, 02:03 PM

Some positive price action today on both NZX & ASX

Casa del Energia

08-08-2012, 04:24 PM

Some positive price action today on both NZX & ASX

I know they say never try to pick the tops and bottoms, but if you look at most miners charts – it looks like the bottom was last week. BTU in particular – perhaps, in a month or two after the court hearings are all over and the locals waiting for jobs have given into frustration and finally got out and lynched the remaining opponents – then everyone will say “Dang, I knew I should have bought BTU back in July’.

tim23

08-08-2012, 06:21 PM

My thoughts entirely Casa!

macduffy

08-08-2012, 08:56 PM

Some positive price action today on both NZX & ASX

Investor Presentation today to Kalgoorlie Diggers and Dealers conference.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120808/pdf/427xdqk1y313k2.pdf

tim23

09-08-2012, 12:34 PM

It worked for OGC yesterday...

tony64peter

14-08-2012, 04:31 PM

Crossing through 30 day MA. Managed to get back in at 33. Fingers crossed. Maybe another speeding ticket after today. Anyone know what's driving it?

tim23

14-08-2012, 08:18 PM

Sold my handful today for beer money profit!!

tony64peter

16-08-2012, 05:03 PM

BHP negative today about its production of metallurgical coal. Price is down 20% in a month but BTU is surging. I wonder if word is out re the appeal.

tony64peter

17-08-2012, 02:42 PM

Broken thru 41.5, seems to be flying, may get a little pull back this arvo. Next resistance 47

macduffy

17-08-2012, 03:10 PM

BHP negative today about its production of metallurgical coal. Price is down 20% in a month but BTU is surging. I wonder if word is out re the appeal.

Looks very nuch like it!

Still the little matter of the other appeal to be held on 29 October, though.

ob1kinobi

17-08-2012, 04:48 PM

Sold my handful today for beer money profit!!

I thought this had more legs , happy to hold for a while yet

I sold far too early several times at the start of the year and missed the bulk of the gains - MAD & EKA spring to mind

Nothing wrong with beer money though

tim23

17-08-2012, 06:12 PM

Quick flick but they've run nicely since I sold - Murphys Law!

Casa del Energia

20-08-2012, 02:35 PM

Quick flick but they've run nicely since I sold - Murphys Law!
And to rub more salt in - - up 5c today. Wondering if the repeated statements that the present low coal price is not a concern since thier horizon is long - unlike Solid Energy who seem to only have tears and cries of woe and doom to offer.

tim23

20-08-2012, 05:17 PM

Thanks! I did note the rise too! Rather have sold to soon and made a dollar than have sold at 37c!

tony64peter

20-08-2012, 05:56 PM

This looks to be going higher.A really big rise in the last 15min. Maybe 64 is the next test.

slimwin

06-09-2012, 06:49 AM

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/7620994/West-Coast-miner-We-re-ready-to-hire

Jimmy's

06-09-2012, 04:22 PM

You r ment to be in Europe on holiday, not monitoring dirty stocks! Good to see plenty of room to still make coin as price of coal declines though.

tim23

06-09-2012, 05:36 PM

Gee fast decline in play - might be worth hopping back in soon?

slimwin

06-09-2012, 06:35 PM

I've always got one eye on my money Jimmy!

Fantastic weather over here at the minute mate. I'd send you a postcard but I'm too tight!

benjitara

22-09-2012, 10:22 PM

I'm looking at this as a long term go. The solid energy saga has to put them in a great position as an alternative source of large employment on the coast and with the hold up in public shares and the maori influence in those affairs I think the government would be all to happy to sit by and watch Bathhurst get a postive news story or two out of the place.

Casa del Energia

04-10-2012, 04:21 PM

http://westportnews.co.nz/wednesday.pdf - Headline ‘Bathurst hopes for July opening’

The article is mainly about what Bathurst said at a Development West Coast seminar. All the local big guns there – including the West coast MP who’s all enthusiasm for it – as are 99.99999% of the locals who just want to stay employed and already know that the Denniston plateau is naturally a moonscape anyway. (I’ve been there a few times over the past (mumble) number of decades – it has always been slightly less lush and green than your average crater on the moon.)

macduffy

11-10-2012, 11:11 AM

Significant increase in reserves at Buller Coal Project.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20121011/pdf/4299jvfmn97sjn.pdf

slimwin

03-11-2012, 07:00 PM

The greenies trying another tact.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/7901467/Environmentalists-take-economic-tack-on-Buller-mine

tony64peter

19-11-2012, 01:53 PM

Thursdays Westport news article would suggest that the govt is supportive of the Bathurst go ahead. I wonder how much persuasion they have in the courts?

Aotea

19-11-2012, 05:51 PM

The nats are always going to be supportive. One suspects given whats come out in court so far that the economics promoted by the company isnt quite what is going to happen in real life. Its going to be 50:50 I reckon. Would be pretty wary in the short term.
Disc: I dont hold, and wont be.

Casa del Energia

24-01-2013, 05:04 PM

Wesport News, Wed 24th

"Work on Bathurst Resource’s new shed on the
Westport wharf is now complete but the shed is
not yet being used.
Buller Port manager Trish Casey said there were
no plans as yet to use the coal storage facility.
“We await advice from Bathurst about when
they intend to begin coal shipments.”
Work on the $5 million, 30m by 80m shed,
began in July. It replaces an existing open storage
area and can hold about 9000 tonnes of coal.
Bathurst has also built two storage sheds, costing
about $500,000, at Port Taranaki to house
incoming coal from Buller before it’s shipped
overseas.
The company has already sent some small trial
shipments of its Cascade Mine coal from Westport
to Asia, but is gearing up to ship over two million
tonnes a year if it receives the green light for its
Denniston Escarpment Mine project.
Bathurst corporate relations general manager
Sam Aarons said both Westport and Taranaki
ports were now able to load and discharge coal.
However, more upgrades were planned to current
infrastructure, including coal-loading facilities.
Bathurst has previously said it plans to spend
over $20m upgrading Westport port.
An Environment Court decision is expected
soon on the Denniston mine. Bathurst also needs
access agreements from the Department of Conservation.
Buller Coal owns and operates all Bathurst’s
operations on the Buller coalfi eld.
Bathurst has estimated the Buller project, once
fully operational, will create 450 direct jobs and
1800 indirect jobs, $90m a year in household
income and $180m a year in royalties and taxes"

macduffy

26-03-2013, 08:53 AM

Just one broker's opinion. From FN Arena:

"BTU - BATHURST RESOURCES LIMITED
Credit Suisse rates BTU as Outperform (1) - Bathurst is expecting a decision on the Escarpment environmental review in NZ this week, and the broker expects a positive announcement given economic and employment benefits make a strong case against environmental concerns. Meanwhile BTU posted a greater than expected loss for the half which leads the broker to downgrade forecast earnings by 20% across FY13-15.
Target falls to 55c from 60c but Outperform retained, with BTU offering high reward potential on high risk.
Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.265 If BTU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents .
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.81.
Market Sentiment: 1.0 "