TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[trader_jackson]

By and large very happy with the result Winner69 far better than most on here were expecting. Remember there was talk that they were going to miss both revenue and EBITDA targets and even mention of EPS going backwards. Best to break down into what was good and what was bad in the announcement.

Positives - Hit revenue guidance, hit EBITDA guidance, Trilogy & CS Company both grew strongly (particularly impressed with the CS results far ahead of where i thought they would be clearly they are seeing the benefits of synergies and now distributing trilogy throughout NZ), Trilogy particularly so in Aussie with +44% growth (plenty more upside to improve marketshare beyond current ~11% - strong growth in this market) , mention of the China situation improving (i note these sales would be included in ROW which were up 35%), reduction in debt to $7.6M (-76%), better operating cashflow (questions were previously raised about level of stock impacting performance going forward, EPS at $0.18 (+20%) a strong result in light of expectations of a number of commentators on this thread.

Negatives - Ecoya results were ugly - winner69 might have a point to offload the candles to a cashed up buyer, TIL sales growth in NZ slowing down (this appears to have been impacted by the change in buying behaviour of the daigu channel - could this change on China amending their stance), Trilogy sales in the states falling 20% (albeit the contribute 5% of revenue for Trilogy), reduction in dividend to 4.5c (Im a happy holder as long as they invest the money in an addition short term).

In short if they can continue to grow where they have been growing this year (mainly Trilogy and in Aussie) as mentioned in the outlook section FY18 should be a continued improvement on a EPS basis of +20%. Hard to see much downsides at these levels especially if they continue to grow profitably, would be good for analysts to run the ruler over the updated results and provide a steer of fair market value.

Hard to say TIL is overpriced on a PE ratio of under 13 assuming EPS grow at 20%

Good analysis, largely agree actually... however I don't think EPS growth will be 20%, clearly things are slowing down (pretty much look at any graph), unless there is some sort of acquisition, I am thinking more half of that, which would make the current market price about right (maybe a fraction higher)... ie $3 ish valuation mentioned many months ago.

I don't like how the headline number was revenue (hate it when companies do this, you know when they rave on about this that the result isn't really that great)... as others have pointed out it does look like they have tried to 'manufacture' the numbers to make it look like they hit guidance, when in fact (when digging deeper) they may have missed it on some accounts.

Still no intention of buying TIL as ultimately, as I have mentioned many months ago, their products have 0 economic moat (ie no real reason to buy a TIL product over another product) and very discretionary

[winner69]

The $10m of intersegment sales leads to some double counting in their releases and presentations

From the release -

• Natural Products delivered $38.8 million¹ revenue, an increase of 13%. Excluding the one-off CS Company Limited (CS&Co) inventory adjustment2, Natural Products revenue grew by 17%
• Home Fragrance & Bodycare delivered $21.4 million revenue, an increase of 7%
• Full twelve months’ contribution from CS&Co delivered $53.4 million revenue including the distribution of TIL Natural Products, an increase of 27% compared to pro forma FY16

Note that totals $113.6m which you need to take off $10m of these intersegment sales to get the real sales number of $103.7m

The $10m is what CS sold of Natural Products (included in both Natural Products and CS in this release)

So for comparing real growth against last year should one take the $10m off CS (and leave it in the Natural Products $38.8m).

If so CS sales were $43.4m. They used proforma sales of $42.0m for F16 for comparative purposes. As such I reckon CS sales (without Natural Products) didn't grow much over last year

You cant say CS sales were up 27% in the same breathe as Natural Products up 13%

On a proforma basis (CS full year F16 and not 7 months) F16 sales were $96.5m - meaning the real / underlying sales growth for the group in F17 was only 7% and not the touted 25%. In other words the 25% increase was the extra 5 months for CS and some more Natural Products ....and less candles.

Maybe punters have seen through this and when the company says 'TIL expects underlying revenue growth in FY18 to be consistent with FY17 for each segment of the business.' they are really saying overall 7% sales growth.

Assume some lower margins and no favourable adjustments then overall earnings growth will be much less than 7%

That's how I see it anyway

Now back to updating my DCF valuation - need to reconstruct the model a bit because the way they report things (esp these intersegment sales) have changed

That's how I see it anyway - probably a load of hogwash but I have faith in my analysis

[boysy]

trader jackson appreciate your input its good to have input from holders, non holders, rampers and de-rampers everyone has something to add. I think the 20% growth in EPS is very achievable if TIL can continue to grow in Aussie as they are growing off a much smaller marketshare let alone any mention of China.

I think a fair bit of negativity was reflected in the SP before the announcement which in hindsight appears to have been too bearish. It may take a major brokerage house (likely Craigs Investment Partners) to provide an updated valuation based on the updated results and comments re outlook for the coming year, this will no doubt highlight the gulf in valuation of TIL and BWX.

[winner69]

If these guys updated last years analysis wonder what the outcome would be

https://www.trilogyproducts.com/media/news/160331-TIL-initiation-copy.pdf

[Snow Leopard]

...

That's how I see it anyway - probably a load of hogwash but I have faith in my analysis

Ignoring the headlines, digging into the numbers and working on a EPS basis really keeps your fingers away from the buy button.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[freebee]

An interesting article with an ex Trilogy employee now independent consultant, not sure if Trilogy still donate a portion of profits to this charity.
http://www.viva.co.nz/article/beauty-wellbeing/essence-of-humanity-skincare/

Disc:small holder, was hoping for a good result to lift the SP back up and thought it was but now feels like the gun went off but nobody has heard the bang yet! hoping for a delayed reaction and a nice rise next week.

[winner69]

I've written to the NZX asking them to review the Trilogy announcement on Friday to get their view if it truly represents actual performance.


I believe the bullet points about segment revenue increases are misleading ...probably tp paint a rosier picture than what was actually achieved. Not every body reads the little footnotes and tries to understand what they really mean. I would hazard a guess that even less read the financials. The majority only read the main release.

There has been a call by some commentators for more transparency in company reporting. I think Trilogy have let themselves down in this respect.

That's how I see it anyway - probably a load of hogwash and I may be completely wrong.

[janner]

if TIL can continue to grow in Aussie .

" IF " is the operative word... Ex happy holder. Not looking to re-hold " Yet ".

DYOR.

[stoploss]

Not me stoploss still here waiting for that asx listing. The price discrepancy between BWX and TIL is plain to see

8 months later still talking about that price discrepancy, I thought it was going to close up after the ASX listing ?

[RupertBear]

The $10m of intersegment sales leads to some double counting in their releases and presentations

From the release -

• Natural Products delivered $38.8 million¹ revenue, an increase of 13%. Excluding the one-off CS Company Limited (CS&Co) inventory adjustment2, Natural Products revenue grew by 17%
• Home Fragrance & Bodycare delivered $21.4 million revenue, an increase of 7%
• Full twelve months’ contribution from CS&Co delivered $53.4 million revenue including the distribution of TIL Natural Products, an increase of 27% compared to pro forma FY16

Note that totals $113.6m which you need to take off $10m of these intersegment sales to get the real sales number of $103.7m

The $10m is what CS sold of Natural Products (included in both Natural Products and CS in this release)

So for comparing real growth against last year should one take the $10m off CS (and leave it in the Natural Products $38.8m).

If so CS sales were $43.4m. They used proforma sales of $42.0m for F16 for comparative purposes. As such I reckon CS sales (without Natural Products) didn't grow much over last year

You cant say CS sales were up 27% in the same breathe as Natural Products up 13%

On a proforma basis (CS full year F16 and not 7 months) F16 sales were $96.5m - meaning the real / underlying sales growth for the group in F17 was only 7% and not the touted 25%. In other words the 25% increase was the extra 5 months for CS and some more Natural Products ....and less candles.

Maybe punters have seen through this and when the company says 'TIL expects underlying revenue growth in FY18 to be consistent with FY17 for each segment of the business.' they are really saying overall 7% sales growth.

Assume some lower margins and no favourable adjustments then overall earnings growth will be much less than 7%

That's how I see it anyway

Now back to updating my DCF valuation - need to reconstruct the model a bit because the way they report things (esp these intersegment sales) have changed

That's how I see it anyway - probably a load of hogwash but I have faith in my analysis

Cheers Winner, I appreciate reading your analysis. Still cant get my head around all of this and I fear the downtrend will continue so I may dump a few in the meantime until the murky waters become clearer or not ;).

[sb9]

Overall the result is bit underwhelming, not what's expected from a company in a growth mode.

Agree with winner, they need to ditch the candles segment big time its been drag on the company overall and will continue to be. They need to address that quickly as markets aint going to be happy with more disappointing performance like this.

Good analysis by tj and boysy, good on you guys for providing detailed analysis and also winner.

I'm expecting the sp to be under pressure in the short term....and I'm not holding any of them at this point of time.

[winner69]

Last September Trilogy gave this guidance for F17 - Company expects revenue to be approximately $100 million to $110 million and EBITDA to be approximately $19 million to $21
million,

I reckon The $110m revenues and the $21m ebitda would be a good result for F18 - no wonder they were rather wishy washy vague with their outlook.

Hope Geoff is really pursuing any suitors

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Last September Trilogy gave this guidance for F17 - Company expects revenue to be approximately $100 million to $110 million and EBITDA to be approximately $19 million to $21
million,

I reckon The $110m revenues and the $21m ebitda would be a good result for F18 - no wonder they were rather wishy washy vague with their outlook.

Hope Geoff is really pursuing any suitors

BWX should offer cash + shares and low ball them? Would be a nice little earnings addition at a offer price around PE16 eh? They wouldn't want that damn candle business though would they.

[RupertBear]

What are peoples thoughts on holding these long term? I would take a loss getting out now so I would prefer to hold on but will get out if the sp keeps going down. Anyone holding long term?

[LAC]

I had reduced a few months ago, have a small portion now, which I will hold long term. Results were good for my projected forecasts.

[mondograss]

I would personally like to get out, but I'm willing to hang on a while longer to see if they come back up a bit. I may change my mind if there's not much movement though. Long term I don't see them as much of a hold, more likely they'll go sideways until they get snapped up by a bigger fish.

[couta1]

What are peoples thoughts on holding these long term? I would take a loss getting out now so I would prefer to hold on but will get out if the sp keeps going down. Anyone holding long term? An old Bunny Walters song comes to mind for you, my Bear friend, "Take the Money and Run". Disc-Sold at $4 odd.

[RupertBear]

An old Bunny Walters song comes to mind for you, my Bear friend, "Take the Money and Run". Disc-Sold at $4 odd.

Well done getting out at $4 Couta! Wish I had. Oh the benefit of hindsight!

[LAC]

Down down down this morning

[winner69]

Just as well the punters on the ASX aren't that interested in TIL

[carrom74]

Down down down this morning

Looks like not many buyers will be left....Sad to see a company which is paying a dividend getting hammered. Unfortunately the downtrend will continue. Thanks Winner69 for your analysis and hope you will get a reply from NZX soon...

[JayRiggs]

Jay - Look at Note 22 d) in the Financial Statements as per link re the contingent consideration. There is a little story that explains it all
https://nzx.com/files/attachments/258987.pdf

Last year they thought they had to another $7m to pay as an earn out - a year on they reckon it will be $6m so have a favourable item of $1m in the P&L this year. Final figure to be agreed though

Read that note and it will be clear as mud - written by an accountant of course

Thanks for that. Had a read through that section :confused:
I think your explanation is better :)

[winner69]

I get the impression the market not that impressed with the results .....and the wishy washy vague forecast

[couta1]

I get the impression the market not that impressed with the results .....and the wishy washy vague forecast Might need a bit more of that voodoo Rosehip oil aye winner.

[RupertBear]

An old Bunny Walters song comes to mind for you, my Bear friend, "Take the Money and Run". Disc-Sold at $4 odd.

Sold a few at $2.20 and will see what happens over the next few days. Did you buy some of mine Winner? :D

[Balance]

Hmmmm ....

Market cap of $152m at $2.10, placing the stock on a PER of 12X and Enterprise multiple of 8.4X.

Minimal debt and growth still ahead, especially now that the China market is buying again.

Suspect the company's 'wishy washy' outlook could be the company reverting back to its previous track record of under promising and over delivering?

Still, best to wait for all the sellers to exit and for an uptrend to emerge - expect will not be too far away.

[golden city]

The main problem is material costs has be double. So if trilogy can't pass on to consumers profit will suffer

[winner69]

BWX trading at 19 times forecast ebitda - TIL at 7 to 8 depending on your F18 expectations

Even allowing for the ASX premium big difference in multiples

Possibly this huge multiple gap reflects a well managed company delivering on high growth promises v a bit of a Mickey Mouse outfit operating out of the backwaters of NZ and delivering an underwhelming result showing 'real' revenue growth of less than 10% - and providing a wishy washy vague outlook.

Done a DCF - if I really 'stretch' future growth assumptions and lower the discount rate I can get a valuation of $3.01 .........but realistically based on last weeks announcements and comments something like $2.25 is more like it ....and that assumes a much better year in F18 than F17

Not going broke and hopefully Geoff being nice to those potential suitors .....so TIL still worth a punt

[bull....]

Very bearish looking are breakdowns after a consolidation , the fundamentals confirm the desire to take it lower.

[Balance]

Very bearish looking are breakdowns after a consolidation , the fundamentals confirm the desire to take it lower.

Sentiment will be negative for a while yet - especially when one considers:

1. Very disappointed and probably pissed-off Australian institutions who took most of the $50m of shares placed last year at $3.70 per share. One Ausbil has already sold out completely and taken their loss. Others could follow.

2. Still a number of shareholders in there with big enough gains to consider taking their gains (albeit reduced) and moving on - especially if the likelihood is that the stock is not going to perform for a while.

To me, it's a question of how cheap it becomes relative to fundamental value (historical PER of 12X and EBITDA multiple of 8.1X) and when 1 & 2 finish their selling.

Watch for the selling to finish and uptrend to emerge.

[King1212]

Sentiment will be negative for a while yet - especially when one considers:

1. Very disappointed and probably pissed-off Australian institutions who took most of the $50m of shares placed last year at $3.70 per share. One Ausbil has already sold out completely and taken their loss. Others could follow.

2. Still a number of shareholders in there with big enough gains to consider taking their gains (albeit reduced) and moving on - especially if the likelihood is that the stock is not going to perform for a while.


To me, it's a question of how cheap it becomes relative to fundamental value (historical PER of 12X and EBITDA multiple of 8.1X) and when 1 & 2 finish their selling.

Watch for the selling to finish and uptrend to emerge.


$1.50...I reconk...

[Balance]

$1.50...I reconk...

Hope so - will be absolutely fantastic!

[JoeGrogan]

$1.50...I reconk...

A market cap of $108mil, i highly doubt that. Would buy up large if it did.

[winner69]

Looks like we up up and away

Few parcels at 218 good sign

[JoeGrogan]

Looks like we up up and away

Few parcels at 218 good sign

Nice to see a few more bids in there compared to yesterday

[Balance]

Looks like we up up and away

Few parcels at 218 good sign

As in flying higher but in a descending formation?

[BlackPeter]

Looks like we up up and away

Few parcels at 218 good sign

Hmm - they say one swallow does not make a summer. Are you really sure this looks like a trend change to you ;)?

8868

[RupertBear]

Craigs still pretty positive on TIL, target price $3.40

[winner69]

Craigs still pretty positive on TIL, target price $3.40

Brilliant

That'll put a rocket under the share price - more than up up and away I reckon (in spite of what BP thinks the trend has reversed)

No worries

[BlackPeter]

Brilliant

That'll put a rocket under the share price - more than up up and away I reckon (in spite of what BP thinks the trend has reversed)

No worries

No views on the TIL trend chart (apart from it looking shocking, of course :p), just trying to learn how you are determining a trend change in above chart;

[bull....]

Craigs still pretty positive on TIL, target price $3.40

were they positive at $5? good buying at $4?

[boysy]

Yes worth noting what was the previous price target before the annual result announcement ?

[Snow Leopard]

No views on the TIL trend chart (apart from it looking shocking, of course :p), just trying to learn how you are determining a trend change in above chart;

w69 holds a Master of Sarcasm and is highly regarded in the whole field of dry-wit, sarcasm & ironic statement

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger (PhD)

[BlackPeter]

w69 holds a Master of Sarcasm and is highly regarded in the whole field of dry-wit, sarcasm & ironic statement

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger (PhD)

Cheers - this clears it up. Still struggling sometimes with the sense of humour the colonists left on these islands ...

But than, maybe this keeps me safe :p

8869

[Brain]

w69 holds a Master of Sarcasm and is highly regarded in the whole field of dry-wit, sarcasm & ironic statement

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger (PhD)

Taking the Piss would be another way to describe it

[winner69]

Cheers - this clears it up. Still struggling sometimes with the sense of humour the colonists left on these islands ...

But than, maybe this keeps me safe :p

8869

Seeing we are not being nice to each other today some might say you need a drop of thinners!!!!!

[winner69]

Hmm - they say one swallow does not make a summer. Are you really sure this looks like a trend change to you ;)?

8868

Seemed to be a lack of sellers ......and the price has sunk to ridiculous levels .....so upward pressure I reckon

As you know TA difficult to read on low volume (volatile) stocks so gut feel the way to go for direction in the short term. Maybe there was a special candlestick today - I'll have a look later

Be interesting what that chart looks like in a years time.

[percy]

Seeing we are not being nice to each other today some might say you need a drop of thinners!!!!!

You are not alone.
I have noticed a number of posters have been niggly today.

[kizame]

Weekly chart has hit 61.8 retracement also,so maybe the winner will get his wish. maybe...

[RupertBear]

Brilliant

That'll put a rocket under the share price - more than up up and away I reckon (in spite of what BP thinks the trend has reversed)

No worries

I felt quite positive after reading their report Winner. No worries eh :D Infact I was beginning to think I should buy some more :eek2: but sense prevailed! :p

[janner]

I felt quite positive after reading their report Winner. No worries eh :D Infact I was beginning to think I should buy some more :eek2: but sense prevailed! :p


Good.... All part of the learning process..

[winner69]

Not going that good today but 214 seems to be a number many wont go below

Called trend change a day or two early

No worries

[BlackPeter]

Cloudy crystal ball, Precognition or Wishful thinking ;)?

I notice that there are within a +/- 10 cent window 6 times more willing sellers than offers. I normally would interpret that as continuous downward pressure, but hey - I might be wrong. Maybe it is concealed buying pressure :cool:.

[King1212]

Good time to get in people?

[BlackPeter]

Good time to get in people?

Only if you believe that they manage to maintain in the future their 2 digit increases for revenue as well as earnings ...

[winner69]

Only if you believe that they manage to maintain in the future their 2 digit increases for revenue as well as earnings ...

Balance says they started the under promise over deliver regime again

[King1212]

Only if you believe that they manage to maintain in the future their 2 digit increases for revenue as well as earnings ...

anyone believes it and can justify?

[Beagle]

I think many folks forget that women's cosmetics can be a very fickle market. What's hot one minute is like yesterday's newspaper when some new elixir of youth promises more radiant beauty from every bottle. Pretty spectacular fall from grace...so far...

[bull....]

rolling down, bottom of well estabilished down channel around 1.70

[Balance]

Hmmmm ....

Market cap of $152m at $2.10, placing the stock on a PER of 12X and Enterprise multiple of 8.4X.

Minimal debt and growth still ahead, especially now that the China market is buying again.

Suspect the company's 'wishy washy' outlook could be the company reverting back to its previous track record of under promising and over delivering?

Still, best to wait for all the sellers to exit and for an uptrend to emerge - expect will not be too far away.

Happy to pick up a few at around $2.10, cum 4.5c dividend.

At this kind of level, very logical for some sort of M&A activity as well.

[kiora]

Happy to pick up a few at around $2.10, cum 4.5c dividend.

At this kind of level, very logical for some sort of M&A activity as well.

Within 6 months?

[Balance]

Within 6 months?

Haha - if I knew I would be mortgaging the house and buying without restraint!

We have seen M&A activity over the decades in NZ where overseas companies on very high multiples (relative to the NZ companies) take over the NZ companies.

In doing so, the overseas company get a huge initial EPS kicker (with sp usually being re-rated higher) as well as being able to crank up earnings from the acquisition via its superior marketing, distribution etc etc.

That was what happened with 42 Below if you recall.

For example, if you use W69 numbers, BWX on an EBITDA multiple of 19X could offer to take over TIL on a multiple of (say) 12X or $3.20. Market in turn will re-rate TIL's EBITDA in BWX's sp to 19X - the market loves growth.

Assuming of course the Baker boys will and want to sell.

Anyway, that's the logic.

[sb9]

Big cross trade at day's low price point...hmmm..



2
32
4:40:41 pm
210
677,400
$1,422,540
Off Market

[winner69]

Big cross trade at day's low price point...hmmm..



2
32
4:40:41 pm
210
677,400
$1,422,540
Off Market



hmm indeed

about this weeks level is the bottom I reckon .....change in trend underway

[sb9]

hmm indeed

about this weeks level is the bottom I reckon .....change in trend underway

Might test sub $2 mark in the near term imo...not looking good I'm afraid, lots of selling pressure..

[stoploss]

Big cross trade at day's low price point...hmmm..



2
32
4:40:41 pm
210
677,400
$1,422,540
Off Market





Someone bailing in Aussie as well .......
200.82


370,000
14:49
SP

[winner69]

Someone bailing in Aussie as well .......
200.82


370,000
14:49
SP



that's a double hmm ......hmmmmm

and tomorrows Friday

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Looks like the big crossings yesterday was the characteristic seller all out... or maybe they just adding an extra day to their long weekend.

[Balance]

Looks like the big crossings yesterday was the characteristic seller all out... or maybe they just adding an extra day to their long weekend.

Happy to have a few at around $2.10.

I think we will see either see the sp going higher or M&A activity as an option in the sp at current levels.

[Balance]

Happy to have a few at around $2.10.

I think we will see either see the sp going higher or M&A activity as an option in the sp at current levels.

Market may be waking up to the M&A potential - thought whoever bought the huge quantity around $2.10 would have started taking some quick profit but looks like not as yet.

[winner69]

Market may be waking up to the M&A potential - thought whoever bought the huge quantity around $2.10 would have started taking some quick profit but looks like not as yet.

Looking good eh mate

Looks like the trend change has happened .......and before many notice it will be 250 plus

[stoploss]

what price would they get the company at ?
3-00 ? How does that leave everyone that purchased in the SPP @ 3.70 let alone those that purchased close to 5-00 , l& those that backed the truck up at $ 4-00 and every 25 cents on the way down ...

[boysy]

I would imagine some window dressing for end of financial year might be in store in the lead up to 30/06/2017

[co0p]

I believe it is more likely we will see TIL acquire something rather than be acquired - especially now Grant Baker is chairman

[LAC]

Yeah I also see TIL acquiring something soon

[Balance]

what price would they get the company at ?
3-00 ? How does that leave everyone that purchased in the SPP @ 3.70 let alone those that purchased close to 5-00 , l& those that backed the truck up at $ 4-00 and every 25 cents on the way down ...

Irrelevant where people got in as company and market circumstances change. More critical is where the value is now and how it can be extracted.

In this case, I suspect the boys know they have taken it as far as they can and like 42 Below, next step is sale to a bigger player on much higher multiples.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

They have a focus on paying down debt rather than paying out in dividends for a reason...

[LAC]

Would be good to hear other ST's views on where they see TIL heading from this point on wards. I see TIL acquiring something, others see TIL being acquired.

[trader_jackson]

I would like to think TIL is acquired... this would be the best outcome for current shareholders.
After the last 'great' acquisition, the share price has (pretty much) only gone down

[winner69]

Irrelevant where people got in as company and market circumstances change. More critical is where the value is now and how it can be extracted.

In this case, I suspect the boys know they have taken it as far as they can and like 42 Below, next step is sale to a bigger player on much higher multiples.

That's how I see it as well Balance

That SPP last year was great - a few thou for little effort eh.

[Balance]

That's how I see it as well Balance

That SPP last year was great - a few thou for little effort eh.

Looks like the big sellers, including Ausbil who has been liquidating quite a number of NZ positions, have finished.

Not a lot of volume on offer while the buy side is actually rather strong.

Cannot imagine why those left holding would want to sell at these kind of multiples myself. Might as well wait for some M&A activity, especially when you have the likes of BWX trading on the loafty multiples relative to TIL.

[Balance]

They have a focus on paying down debt rather than paying out in dividends for a reason...

A company is most attractive for an acquirer if it is debt free - the acquirer can then use leverage if it chooses to.

[winner69]

A company is most attractive for an acquirer if it is debt free - the acquirer can then use leverage if it chooses to.

Underwhelming result for F17. Wishy washy guidance suggests that even the company feels a steady mature state has been reached .....and probably knows best way forward to enrich share holders is to find a buyer

Worth while holding just for that

Hope it doesn't take too long

[BlackPeter]

Underwhelming result for F17. Wishy washy guidance suggests that even the company feels a steady mature state has been reached .....and probably knows best way forward to enrich share holders is to find a buyer

Worth while holding just for that

Hope it doesn't take too long

Well, yes - but why exactly would a buyer want to spend mega dollars to buy a scent and cosmetic company which just fall out of fashion? Remove the growth assumption and they suddenly don't look cheap anymore.

[Balance]

Well, yes - but why exactly would a buyer want to spend mega dollars to buy a scent and cosmetic company which just fall out of fashion? Remove the growth assumption and they suddenly don't look cheap anymore.

That's what big companies do - leverage off their underlying businesses and distribution etc.

[mondograss]

A merger with McPhersons might make a degree of sense. MCP are a little larger on market cap I think. Their latest report suggested their NZ distribution arm is underperforming quite significantly so having CS&Co would be beneficial to them and a merger would also let TIL control more of its Aus distribution.

[co0p]

A merger with McPhersons might make a degree of sense. MCP are a little larger on market cap I think. Their latest report suggested their NZ distribution arm is underperforming quite significantly so having CS&Co would be beneficial to them and a merger would also let TIL control more of its Aus distribution.

I wouldn't be against this.

They do have a fair bit of debt. They would need to divest the other parts of the business that would not fit - and Ecoya

[Balance]

I wouldn't be against this.

They do have a fair bit of debt. They would need to divest the other parts of the business that would not fit - and Ecoya

Makes little sense to me - MCP is a smaller company than TIL, and indeed with over A$40m of debt.

Most logical step is for TIL to be taken over by a bigger company and I believe BWX is actually a very logical one - it has credibility, trades on high multiples and expectations are for it to continue to grow. One sure way is to take over a company like TIL which is on a lower multiple and has a product range which complements that of BWX.

[co0p]

Makes little sense to me - MCP is a smaller company than TIL, and indeed with over A$40m of debt.

Most logical step is for TIL to be taken over by a bigger company and I believe BWX is actually a very logical one - it has credibility, trades on high multiples and expectations are for it to continue to grow. One sure way is to take over a company like TIL which is on a lower multiple and has a product range which complements that of BWX.


MCP trades on a lower multiple than TIL, their cosmetics range doesn't complete with TIL, they already distribute trilogy and goodness in Australia.

[JoeGrogan]

227
392,200
14:19
sp


227
100,000
13:44
sp

[winner69]

227
392,200
14:19
sp


227
100,000
13:44
sp





















That's good isn't it?

[JoeGrogan]

That's good isn't it?

Most definitely a good thing, getting ready to break through 2.30, then next stop $5 :t_up:.

[boysy]

Got to be a change in substantial holder notice at some stage.

[Balance]

Got to be a change in substantial holder notice at some stage.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/302559

Per your expectations - presumably they will buy more as they have some serious $$$ under management.

http://www.grandeurpeakglobal.com/gpiox-gpiix

[boysy]

Interesting to note they have split the purchases between 5 of their funds (as per below from NZX ann). As you mention balance they have plenty of money under management under the various funds, has the seller now left the building is the question.

Nature of relevant interest(s): Registered holder and beneficial owner of financial products

FIT-Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Fund (1.84% or 1,335,398 shares)

Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities, L.P. (0.62% or 452,872 shares)

FIT-Grandeur Peak International Opportunities Fund (2.04% or 1,483,585 shares)

FIT-Grandeur Peak Global Reach Fund (1.58% or 1,145,563 shares)

FIT-Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund (0.28% or 204,522 shares)

Total shares across all funds (as of June 14, 2017): 4,621,940 shares (6.357%)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Interesting from a technical perspective. Broke through 220 to create new lows which looked like a continuation of the long term downtrend. Quickly broke back through 220 and is now testing the strong resistance at 230. Breaking through resistance at 230 would be bullish, 240 very bullish.

[Balance]

Interesting to note they have split the purchases between 5 of their funds (as per below from NZX ann). As you mention balance they have plenty of money under management under the various funds, has the seller now left the building is the question.



They will be hoping that the seller has NOT left the building.

Interesting that selling has abated now that there is disclosure that someone big is prepared to step up to the plate to take stock. Always the way.

[Balance]

They will be hoping that the seller has NOT left the building.

Interesting that selling has abated now that there is disclosure that someone big is prepared to step up to the plate to take stock. Always the way.

Looks like seller(s) still there - BUT buyer is as well.

Let's see whose pockets are deeper.

[RupertBear]

Ok so there is a big buyer and a big seller....how do we know if this is a good thing or a bad thing?

[sb9]

Pie funds reduced their holdings by about 1% from 6.92% down to 5.92%, interesting....

[Balance]

Ok so there is a big buyer and a big seller....how do we know if this is a good thing or a bad thing?

Is good thing imo - from PIE who is taking profits from the table after riding the stock all the way to the last high, to another fund (Grandeur) who is taking a different view on future upside to ride TIL to its next high point in their assessment.

One will be right!

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Not sure if PIE is the current seller or not. It looks like PIE sold just under 1% several weeks back to avoid an SSH. However they have been forced to issue an SSH due to issuance of further shares.

[Balance]

Not sure if PIE is the current seller or not. It looks like PIE sold just under 1% several weeks back to avoid an SSH. However they have been forced to issue an SSH due to issuance of further shares.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/302630

Says they sold and are still selling.

I take today's crossing of 100,000 shares at $2.27 as PIE testing Grandeur resolve out.

Seems to me that Grandeur will be happy to take out the rest of PIE's shareholding if PIE wants to sell out - a lazy $10m or less than 1% of Grandeur's funds under management. These boys do not play for 10% type returns.

[winner69]

PIE sold their shares for between $2.36 and $2.38 from 14/2 to 14/6

But it hasn't been this price for a few weeks

[Balance]

PIE sold their shares for between $2.36 and $2.38 from 14/2 to 14/6

But it hasn't been this price for a few weeks

14/6 is date to filing of SSH?

[winner69]

14/6 is date to filing of SSH?

Extract

Details of transactions and events giving rise to relevant event
Details of the transactions or other events requiring disclosure: Transactions from 14 February 2017 to 14 June 2017

704,500 Ord Shares Sold between $2.36 and $2.38, totalling NZD1,676,620.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

See my previous post for possible explanation.

I reckon there is still some big crossings to be made before the SP goes anywhere. It's looking like a game of cat and mouse though. Ex-div this week so lets see what happens.

[couta1]

Bought a small holding before the divvy, got skunked on this one as Ex divvy price is down 3 times the value of my divvy. Sitting on that $2.10 prior support line atm. PS-Not confident enough in the stock to double or triple down.

[King1212]

Is TIL the most unloved and unwanted stock now? With market cap of $150m, revenue almost $104 and ebitda almost $20m...reduced company debts...paying dividend...

well guys...I am picking up couple cheap shares.....let see whether the trend will change....once the fear gone,..

be greedy when others fear..be fearful when other greedy

[kizame]

Is TIL the most unloved and unwanted stock now? With market cap of $150m, revenue almost $104 and ebitda almost $20m...reduced company debts...paying dividend...

well guys...I am picking up couple cheap shares.....let see whether the trend will change....once the fear gone,..

be greedy when others fear..be fearful when other greedy

Well King I do hope thats a double bottom about to occur as it's a wee way from crossing the downtrend line,good luck to you.

[King1212]

Well King I do hope thats a double bottom about to occur as it's a wee way from crossing the downtrend line,good luck to you.


So u reconk the trend still in downtrend?

[kizame]

So u reconk the trend still in downtrend?

I think it could be at a turning point,being the double bottom but I have thought that before...
It hasn't passed through the downtrend line yet,but early days mate.

[King1212]

My gut feeling is telling me that the trend is moving up soon. but...I might be wrong..been watching it for months now..n it is now twice at $2.10...so....let see ehh

[sonny n share]

Simplywall.st says Flawless balance sheet with solid track record and undervalued.
For what that is worth

[King1212]

Balance...did u sell out your parcel?

[winner69]

Cloudy crystal ball, Precognition or Wishful thinking ;)?

I notice that there are within a +/- 10 cent window 6 times more willing sellers than offers. I normally would interpret that as continuous downward pressure, but hey - I might be wrong. Maybe it is concealed buying pressure :cool:.

Maybe you were right after all Peter

[trader_jackson]

Looking good eh mate

Looks like the trend change has happened .......and before many notice it will be 250 plus

I thought this stock was only meant to go up from now on? with the M&A and everything... (and the aussie listing, comparison with BWX all that kind of stuff from way back...)
Already struggling to stay off the all year low... whats going on?

(Note: TIL is down over 30% in the past 6 months, the apparent comparable, BWX, is up over 40% in the past 6 months, maybe some re-thinking on if BWX is appropriate comparable needs to be done...)

[King1212]

I thought this stock was only meant to go up from now on? with the M&A and everything...
Already struggling to stay off the all year low... whats going on?


share market mate....no one can predict...otherwise everyone will be a millionaire. The trend could turn around TJ....I can not resist with the discounted sp....so...let see ehh

being ex divvy n global oil glut...so it does not help at all...maybe this will be the last $2.10:eek2:

[sb9]

Might breach sub $2 mark by the looks...

[Balance]

Might breach sub $2 mark by the looks...

Looking grim from a technical point of view BUT great from an M&A point of view.

That's one view anyway!

[winner69]

Looking grim from a technical point of view BUT great from an M&A point of view.

That's one view anyway!

Only way for shareholders to get rich now I fear - hope it doesn't take too long

[couta1]

Only way for shareholders to get rich now I fear - hope it doesn't take too long With a PE of around 11,you could say the current SP is cheap, sellers can't be expecting any growth.

[winner69]

With a PE of around 11,you could say the current SP is cheap, sellers can't be expecting any growth.

The wishy washy guidance mentioned growth ..... but reading between the lines it sort of implied 5%-7% top line growth for F18 was about it

[Balance]

Only way for shareholders to get rich now I fear - hope it doesn't take too long

BWX's sp is continuing to charge ahead - compelling deal in the making.

[Xerof]

Balance...did u sell out your parcel? Hmmm, pump and dump? surely not

[Balance]

Hmmm, pump and dump? surely not

Pump and dump.

Dump and pump.

Only for losers - like serial liar Trump.

[King1212]

No way pump n dump..good value with current sp

[BlackPeter]

No way pump n dump..good value with current sp

Good value? Only if you believe into their amazing growth story. So far they went through the typical shape every spec share goes through. Not too many who recover after passing the hype peak. In my view much more fun to observe the future development from the sidelines, but this is just me ...

[silverblizzard888]

BWX's sp is continuing to charge ahead - compelling deal in the making.

The proof is in the pudding, BWX overall has higher margins and faster growth, and plans for acquisitions. In the long run it makes a big difference what the markets willing pay, especially valuing the companies. In some sense even a better diversity of products. BWX has skincare and shampoo, Trilogy has skincare and candles, the candles are the big let down. Trilogy still has a great business, but overall declining growth from past growth rates, lower margins and uncertainty regarding direction of the company, it seems like its happy to consolidate and expand slowly to other markets, it doesn't bod well for some investors. At current pricing its certainly a great long term hold, but with the euphoric market everyone screaming for higher returns and more capital gains quick and the sentiment regarding the stock isn't great as no one knows where the bottom is.

[kizame]

Well slap my face again,no double bottom around here,move on nothing to see here.

[King1212]

Well slap my face again,no double bottom around here,move on nothing to see here.

no way..too early..wait and see

market is irrational. Panic...fear....look at PAY...revenue around 70m usd...forecasted..making loss...still valued at 400ish m company...

til has has skin cares, candles by the way...distribution unit....

[co0p]

I doubt we will see any sort of recovery until guidance is provided for the 1H. I am expecting the 1H result to be much stronger than last years.

At this price it is pretty enticing.

[King1212]

I doubt we will see any sort of recovery until guidance is provided for the 1H. I am expecting the 1H result to be much stronger than last years.

At this price it is pretty enticing.

a quater update would be nice...isn't?

[co0p]

a quater update would be nice...isn't?

It would be, but I suspect Q1 is there slowest quarter...

[King1212]

For the record...til is under promised and over delivered company

[winner69]

For the record...til is under promised and over delivered company

And a tiger never changes it stripes eh

[King1212]

And a tiger never changes it stripes eh


Absolutely winner...only painted cat loses the strips...no wonder Gareth Morgan wanted to get rid of all cats��

[Balance]

And a tiger never changes it stripes eh

Ever heard of mutton dressed up as lamb? :D

[winner69]

I doubt we will see any sort of recovery until guidance is provided for the 1H. I am expecting the 1H result to be much stronger than last years.

At this price it is pretty enticing.

H1 revenues will be interesting - first time for a while we'll be comparing apples with apples. There won't be inflated headline % growth numbers inflated because of things like first full half year of CS Con etc

It'll be all down to body care stuff, CS might be marginally ahead and candles will dilute growth in the other areas

[carrom74]

What has happened to this stock...Hardly any buyers left...

[couta1]

What has happened to this stock...Hardly any buyers left... Unloved and it's dividend shed.

[bull....]

What has happened to this stock...Hardly any buyers left...

who would buy it in a downtrend?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Some motivated sellers.

Maybe look for some crossings at 200... seems like a nice round number for it eh?

[couta1]

who would buy it in a downtrend? I bought some for the dividend, if no one bought stocks in a downtrend, the market would often be completely dead. PS-A bit like asking, why would anyone go running in the rain?

[King1212]

Unloved....thanks..bought a bit more....for long term...small parcel...

[carrom74]

Unloved....thanks..bought a bit more....for long term...small parcel...

Good on you King1212...I see that you are pretty unnerved with the downtrend.Yes....it is pretty tempting to top up....but for me the question is when.

[Balance]

Some motivated sellers.

Maybe look for some crossings at 200... seems like a nice round number for it eh?

Looking like that's where it is heading.

[King1212]

Man...stock market...no one knows....i could be wrong....market fear....

[couta1]

Man...stock market...no one knows....i could be wrong....market fear.... You'll be right mate, look at the PE, current price would imply zero growth for a company such as this

[King1212]

You'll be right mate, look at the PE, current price would imply zero growth for a company such as this

yes..but when u look at the revenue vs market cap...some companies made loss n less revenue n still valued 3-4times of the revenue......such as PAY....

[BlackPeter]

You'll be right mate, look at the PE, current price would imply zero growth for a company such as this

Which may or may not be optimistic. Zero growth still would imply them being able to hold their revenue as well as their margin. That's not easy in this industry if your products fall out of fashion.

[King1212]

Which may or may not be optimistic. Zero growth still would imply them being able to hold their revenue as well as their margin. That's not easy in this industry if your products fall out of fashion.


What evidents or research report stating thier thier products are fall out fashion? Your own conclusion? As I know, women are very particular with thier skin products..once they use n like one products...they will stick with it.

the last report did not state thier products are out of fashion...

[winner69]

What evidents or research report stating thier thier products are fall out fashion? Your own conclusion? As I know, women are very particular with thier skin products..once they use n like one products...they will stick with it.

the last report did not state thier products are out of fashion...

Blackpeter did say IF .........mm.....always a risk in this industry eh

[co0p]

What evidents or research report stating thier thier products are fall out fashion? Your own conclusion? As I know, women are very particular with thier skin products..once they use n like one products...they will stick with it.

the last report did not state thier products are out of fashion...

He has none.

TIL had a disruptive 1H of FY17 with the change in distributor in NZ (at the time their largest market) and uncertainty in the Daigou channel.

In FY18 things are a little different. CS&Co is settled as distributor in NZ, the daigou channel has stabilised and they are now selling into China through CBEC (Tmall, VIP and I suspect more to come). Surely there will be some growth...... if not then I will be worried.

[King1212]

Blackpeter did say IF .........mm.....always a risk in this industry eh


any business is risky...even selling condoms is risky..look at Ansell....they have their up and down...

[trader_jackson]

You'll be right mate, look at the PE, current price would imply zero growth for a company such as this

Maybe if the PE got down to 6 or 7 you could say the market is pricing in no growth (see flexigroup, asx - profit forecast of 90 - 93 for year ending 31 June 2017 - market cap of 634m), but TIL's PE is still over 11 (12.7m profit for year ending 31 March 2017 - market cap of 149m)

If the market was really pricing in 0 growth, at the absolute max, a PE should be single digits... ie still more room to fall... so I suppose the market is pricing in growth, just lower growth than about a year ish ago when the share price was $5 (and how everyone was talking about when it would get to $6 or $7 etc etc)

As I have said from the beginning, 0 economic moat with their products - at the end of the day, in my view, they are essentially a retail stock, selling a discretionary good.

[Big Blind]

any business is risky...even selling condoms is risky..look at Ansell....they have their up and down...

They do face stiff competition

[King1212]

Maybe if the PE got down to 6 or 7 you could say the market is pricing in no growth (see flexigroup, asx - profit forecast of 90 - 93 for year ending 31 June 2017 - market cap of 634m), but TIL's PE is still over 11 (12.7m profit for year ending 31 March 2017 - market cap of 149m)

If the market was really pricing in 0 growth, at the absolute max, a PE should be single digits... ie still more room to fall... so I suppose the market is pricing in growth, just lower growth than about a year ish ago when the share price was $5 (and how everyone was talking about when it would get to $6 or $7 etc etc)

As I have said from the beginning, 0 economic moat with their products - at the end of the day, in my view, they are essentially a retail stock, selling a discretionary good.


A harsh view tj. Just like people saying the akl property price is on going down..to sell all retirement stocks n property stocks.

[stoploss]

A harsh view tj. Just like people saying the akl property price is on going down..to sell all retirement stocks n property stocks.

Not sure that is the right comparsion , everyone needs somewhere to live .

On the other hand they can do without a sixty dollar candle ...maybe substitute with a cheaper one from bed bath and beyond or WHS .
As for skincare products very competitive as well , big guys can crush your margins with discounting etc

[King1212]

Not sure that is the right comparsion , everyone needs somewhere to live .

On the other hand they can do without a sixty dollar candle ...maybe substitute with a cheaper one from bed bath and beyond or WHS .
As for skincare products very competitive as well , big guys can crush your margins with discounting etc


Ahah...bought the warehouse one..on special..choose the most expensive one $40 retail price. Got it for $10. Burnt it...can not smell anything..my dog pooh is smelling stronger than the warehouse one.

[couta1]

Ahah...bought the warehouse one..on special..choose the most expensive one $40 retail price. Got it for $10. Burnt it...can not smell anything..my dog pooh is smelling stronger than the warehouse one. Don't worry about what others on here think, stick with your own convictions, otherwise you'll be forever defending your position, and getting worked up.:cool:

[stoploss]

Ahah...bought the warehouse one..on special..choose the most expensive one $40 retail price. Got it for $10. Burnt it...can not smell anything..my dog pooh is smelling stronger than the warehouse one.
Sounds like it has less chemicals in it good for you and the environment :)

[BlackPeter]

What evidents or research report stating thier thier products are fall out fashion? Your own conclusion? As I know, women are very particular with thier skin products..once they use n like one products...they will stick with it.

the last report did not state thier products are out of fashion...


Blackpeter did say IF .........mm.....always a risk in this industry eh


He has none.

TIL had a disruptive 1H of FY17 with the change in distributor in NZ (at the time their largest market) and uncertainty in the Daigou channel.

In FY18 things are a little different. CS&Co is settled as distributor in NZ, the daigou channel has stabilised and they are now selling into China through CBEC (Tmall, VIP and I suspect more to come). Surely there will be some growth...... if not then I will be worried.

And the answer is: winner is correct ;)!

King and CoOp - let me guess: overcommitted and under water? I guess in this situation is it easy for the nerve endings to show up blank ...

No need for excitement ... enjoy your holding and I wish both of you good luck. I have no special knowledge about TIL's products, noticed however that they are quite dear and that my better half doesn't know or use the brand. I noticed as well that the Princess of Wales recommends in the meantime other stuff (times change), that TIL's stellar growth was abruptly stopped - and that the team cobbling TIL together and now running it seems to be more experienced in grooming startups for sale than running long-term profitable companies. They might have missed in this case the optimal time window for selling it off.

I see as well that the share is in a reliable long term downtrend - which means that the market clearly does not believe in sustainable growth. Maybe you two know more than the market? In this case it might be the ideal time to "back up the truck". Otherwise - ignore market sentiment at your peril, particularly if the fundamentals are based mainly on plenty of "goodwill".

But no - I didn't perform a market survey - i.e. everything might be nice and fluffy and the markets just didn't notice it. However - fragrance and skin care (not to mention candles) are a tough business with a minimal moat. Ask yourself: what has TIL got what the others have not?

Discl: don't;

[King1212]

And the answer is: winner is correct ;)!

King and CoOp - let me guess: overcommitted and under water? I guess in this situation is it easy for the nerve endings to show up blank ...

No need for excitement ... enjoy your holding and I wish both of you good luck. I have no special knowledge about TIL's products, noticed however that they are quite dear and that my better half doesn't know or use the brand. I noticed as well that the Princess of Wales recommends in the meantime other stuff (times change), that TIL's stellar growth was abruptly stopped - and that the team cobbling TIL together and now running it seems to be more experienced in grooming startups for sale than running long-term profitable companies. They might have missed in this case the optimal time window for selling it off.

I see as well that the share is in a reliable long term downtrend - which means that the market clearly does not believe in sustainable growth. Maybe you two know more than the market? In this case it might be the ideal time to "back up the truck". Otherwise - ignore market sentiment at your peril, particularly if the fundamentals are based mainly on plenty of "goodwill".

But no - I didn't perform a market survey - i.e. everything might be nice and fluffy and the markets just didn't notice it. However - fragrance and skin care (not to mention candles) are a tough business with a minimal moat. Ask yourself: what has TIL got what the others have not?

Discl: don't;


We we will see eh..only time will tell...my gut feeling hardly wrong:D will proof u wrong just like snoopy on HBL

[co0p]

And the answer is: winner is correct ;)!

King and CoOp - let me guess: overcommitted and under water? I guess in this situation is it easy for the nerve endings to show up blank ...

No need for excitement ... enjoy your holding and I wish both of you good luck. I have no special knowledge about TIL's products, noticed however that they are quite dear and that my better half doesn't know or use the brand. I noticed as well that the Princess of Wales recommends in the meantime other stuff (times change), that TIL's stellar growth was abruptly stopped - and that the team cobbling TIL together and now running it seems to be more experienced in grooming startups for sale than running long-term profitable companies. They might have missed in this case the optimal time window for selling it off.

I see as well that the share is in a reliable long term downtrend - which means that the market clearly does not believe in sustainable growth. Maybe you two know more than the market? In this case it might be the ideal time to "back up the truck". Otherwise - ignore market sentiment at your peril, particularly if the fundamentals are based mainly on plenty of "goodwill".

But no - I didn't perform a market survey - i.e. everything might be nice and fluffy and the markets just didn't notice it. However - fragrance and skin care (not to mention candles) are a tough business with a minimal moat. Ask yourself: what has TIL got what the others have not?

Discl: don't;

Apologies if I caused any offense with my earlier post.

I was simply attempting to suggest a possible reason as to why sales have slowed. I do understand my reasoning is at odds with a number of better informed participants on this thread (yourself and trader come to mind).

Disclosure: Obviously a holder who wishes they got out 12 months ago - probably overcommitted but not quite underwater

[King1212]

U don't have to apology...u were right...he has none..just his own conclusions without any fact evident n research. It is like saying nz property market Will collapse soon....sell all your properties n retirement stocks!

[IAK]

And the answer is: winner is correct ;)!

King and CoOp - let me guess: overcommitted and under water? I guess in this situation is it easy for the nerve endings to show up blank ...

No need for excitement ... enjoy your holding and I wish both of you good luck. I have no special knowledge about TIL's products, noticed however that they are quite dear and that my better half doesn't know or use the brand. I noticed as well that the Princess of Wales recommends in the meantime other stuff (times change), that TIL's stellar growth was abruptly stopped - and that the team cobbling TIL together and now running it seems to be more experienced in grooming startups for sale than running long-term profitable companies. They might have missed in this case the optimal time window for selling it off.

Discl: don't;

According to this article (25 June 2017) Princess Cate and her mother are still using Trilogy Rosehip Oil.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-4637010/Is-secret-Kate-s-glowing-skin.html

Disc. Small holding

[King1212]

Thanks..good evidence. Women will not easily change their cosmetic gears....they will pay premium to keep their beauty ...how do I know? I got one at home...my wife..haha

[IAK]

Same here lol

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Doesn't seem as negative today. That must be good.

[Beagle]

According to this article (25 June 2017) Princess Cate and her mother are still using Trilogy Rosehip Oil.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-4637010/Is-secret-Kate-s-glowing-skin.html

Disc. Small holding

The key question directors need to answer is how do they get Margot Robbie on board as a brand ambassador !!!!
http://www.msn.com/en-nz/lifestyle/style/margot-robbie-reveals-her-very-strange-beauty-tips/ar-BBDitu4?li=AAaeXZz&ocid=spartandhp for goodness sake...

[IAK]

Kate still going strong on the rosehip oil.

http://www.housebeautiful.com/lifestyle/g4544/kate-middleton-style-makeup-hair-products/

[King1212]

Plenty of excellent comments with trilogy products. Check out the Amazon comments

[mondograss]

Yes I wondered with Amazon buying Whole Foods (a big Trilogy stockist) whether we'd see them more heavily on Amazon.

[King1212]

Trilogy International to acquire Lanocorp New Zealand Limited

[Balance]

Trilogy International to acquire Lanocorp New Zealand Limited

Making itself even more attractive to a potential acquirer.

[mondograss]

Interesting, from Rose Hips and Chia to Lanolin and Honey.

[King1212]

Interesting, from Rose Hips and Chia to Lanolin and Honey.

it is slowly becoming a big cosmetic company!!!

[co0p]

One of the key attractions to this company must have been the manufacturing facility - IIRC Trilogy use a contract manufacturer. I guess at some stage the manufacturing could move to this company so they will capture more margin.

Might take shorten time to get new products to market too.

Earnings accretive from the outset.

All things considered this looks like a good acquisition.

[couta1]

Very astute purchase of a well established brand and company

[BlackPeter]

it is slowly becoming a big cosmetic company!!!

Depends on how you measure "big". Their market cap seems to shrink faster than they are able to grow by acquisition :p.

On the other hand ... at face value the transaction sounds o.k: buying 80% of $2.4" EBITDA (last FY) for $12.5". Just wondering why they only referred in the announcement to the last financial year (instead of say a 5 year range). Do the others years look less favourable? Could be as well that Lanotec stretched itself a bit when building these new premises in Rolleston - why else would they want to sell the goose laying the golden eggs?

Anyway - time will tell. Might be a gain for both, lets see what the markets think ...

[LAC]

Good acquisition imo, the business is growing which I like. They still need to do something about the candles though, this part of the business needs a remodel/restructure or cut altogether. I have only bought the candles for special occasion gifts and not for everyday use so maybe that's all they should concentrate on and scrap the other options.

[King1212]

Depends on how you measure "big". Their market cap seems to shrink faster than they are able to grow by acquisition :p.

On the other hand ... at face value the transaction sounds o.k: buying 80% of $2.4" EBITDA (last FY) for $12.5". Just wondering why they only referred in the announcement to the last financial year (instead of say a 5 year range). Do the others years look less favourable? Could be as well that Lanotec stretched itself a bit when building these new premises in Rolleston - why else would they want to sell the goose laying the golden eggs?

Anyway - time will tell. Might be a gain for both, lets see what the markets think ...

ok...take it like this scenario....u have a business that u been doing for years and start from zero. business is doing well, then suddenly some one offer u the sum that beyond your expectation to buy your business. Money that u won't think u will not see it, set for your retirement n u still going to work at the company n take a good salary .....would u sell it? I would....

[winner69]

Depends on how you measure "big". Their market cap seems to shrink faster than they are able to grow by acquisition :p.

On the other hand ... at face value the transaction sounds o.k: buying 80% of $2.4" EBITDA (last FY) for $12.5". Just wondering why they only referred in the announcement to the last financial year (instead of say a 5 year range). Do the others years look less favourable? Could be as well that Lanotec stretched itself a bit when building these new premises in Rolleston - why else would they want to sell the goose laying the golden eggs?

Anyway - time will tell. Might be a gain for both, lets see what the markets think ...p

With earn outs probably about 7 times ebitda

About what TIL is valued out

But eps accretive is good - great word is accretive, it gives you the warm fuzzies.

Share price should fly today

[winner69]

STers comments usually a good judge

This acquisition unanimously (except for one part detractor) seen as a very good for TIL

So positive for share price - back to 330 this week as a start

[golden city]

As I have notice. From diagou of view. Lano is going down side from very much competition

[couta1]

As I have notice. From diagou of view. Lano is going down side from very much competition All the more reason to combine forces.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

All the more reason to combine forces.

Your dividend play may yet work out Couts.

[King1212]

Big volume of SP condition lately....Off market....

[couta1]

Your dividend play may yet work out Couts. Yep, good news stepped in to help.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Watching the charts closely here. Getting close to the point indicating reversal of the downtrend.

These dual listed companies usually go gangbusters once ASX opens. Oh wait, the ASX listing was a flop.

[trader_jackson]

Interesting acquisition, remember last time they brought that other thing and I wonder what happened to the share price after that 'bargain' SPP given to shareholders? Also found it interesting how they paid all cash for it... if management (of Lanocorp) were so confident, you'd think they'd only be to happy to take at least some shares in the 'heavily undervalued' TIL? (did I read it wrong?)

Ah well, time will tell how good this acquisition is, certainly made all the right noises, using bigly words like diversity and exposure. The jump in share price today means it is now just over half way to where it was this time last year ;).

[winner69]

Interesting acquisition, remember last time they brought that other thing and I wonder what happened to the share price after that 'bargain' SPP given to shareholders? Also found it interesting how they paid all cash for it... if management (of Lanocorp) were so confident, you'd think they'd only be to happy to take at least some shares in the 'heavily undervalued' TIL? (did I read it wrong?)

Ah well, time will tell how good this acquisition is, certainly made all the right noises, using bigly words like diversity and exposure. The jump in share price today means it is now just over half way to where it was this time last year ;).

It's EP accretive t_j

But share price shot up by more than the accretive bit - punters obviously think that strategically this is a very good acquisition.

At least Mr McIver will be happy

[silverblizzard888]

Breaking the announcement down I think Trilogy have performed a masterstroke.

Trilogy is buying establish brands with history.
"New Zealand business that was founded over 25 years ago in Christchurch"
Lanocreme product since 1959

New sales channel and markets opened
Lanocorp sells products in a lot of sovineir stores and wider chain of supermarkets and goods stores.
They also established in US, UK and Canada in other platforms. Those who are familiar with Lanocreme will know that it can prove to be a big hit in Asia.

More economies of scale
"3,200sqm purpose built manufacturing facility in Rolleston", which will be more efficient with more volume.

Diverse product range
Trilogy can now sell a much more diverse product range that include products that have rosehip oil, chia seed, honey, coconut oil, Bee Venom, sheeps placenta ......and so on. Lanocorp also sells a cheap version of rosehip oil so its a way to his the market with a cheaper alternative and keeping Trilogy as the premium. The product range is bigger too now as they now sell in the skincare, bodycare and haircare brands.

Room for growth
With more access to other sales channel they can sell in more places and with Trilogy's store local distribution Lanocorp who has only established a early base in NZ can grow much more quicker.

[kizame]

Breaking the announcement down I think Trilogy have performed a masterstroke.

Trilogy is buying establish brands with history.
"New Zealand business that was founded over 25 years ago in Christchurch"
Lanocreme product since 1959

New sales channel and markets opened
Lanocorp sells products in a lot of sovineir stores and wider chain of supermarkets and goods stores.
They also established in US, UK and Canada in other platforms. Those who are familiar with Lanocreme will know that it can prove to be a big hit in Asia.

More economies of scale
"3,200sqm purpose built manufacturing facility in Rolleston", which will be more efficient with more volume.

Diverse product range
Trilogy can now sell a much more diverse product range from rosehip oil, chia seed, honey, coconut oil, Bee Venom, sheeps placenta ......and so on. Lanocorp also sells a cheap version of rosehip oil so its a way to his the market with a cheaper alternative and keeping Trilogy as the premium. The product range is bigger too now as they now sell in the skincare, bodycare and haircare brands.

Room for growth
With more access to other sales channel they can sell in more places and with Trilogy's store local distribution Lanocorp who has only established a early base in NZ can grow much more quicker.

It may be the manufacturing plant that is the attraction in this deal,I'm not sure whether til have a plant themselves or whether this is contracted out,but to get that plant humming efficiently with more product...

[JohnnyTheHorse]

If it can close above 230 then that'll be confirmation of an upward breakout from the falling wedge (along with other indicators pinging off) - 320 target price.

[boysy]

Great to see the buy sell depth change on this announcement. BWX closing on $6 just goes to show where til can be if they start making waves in china

[silverblizzard888]

This announcement gives the company more direction and the share market loves it, before that there was a bit of uncertainty that no one wanted to be a holder.

[carrom74]

STers comments usually a good judge

This acquisition unanimously (except for one part detractor) seen as a very good for TIL

So positive for share price - back to 330 this week as a start

I still believed that the price drop ex div was just an aberration. After listening to the CEO's interview on NBR,my faith improved....Still about 20c(roughly) down from 100 SMA...Lets see winner69 whether 330 is possible near term...fingers crossed..

[winner69]

Well on way to 330 now

Good divie eh couta - well done - well timed (assuming you haven't sold yet)

[RupertBear]

Well on way to 330 now

Good divie eh couta - well done - well timed (assuming you haven't sold yet)

Was just thinking the same Winner. Hope he is a happy holder :D

[King1212]

Was just thinking the same Winner. Hope he is a happy holder :D

Well..I am...:D

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Really surprised by the strength today... A very keen buyer, or was someone covering some shorts?

Technically it is very strong:
- Broken 1 year long term downtrend
- Broken 6 month falling wedge
- Broken 230 resistance and 240 resistance. Next tests 250 and 275
- Broken 100DMA
- DMI, MACD and other indicators turning positive

Looking to me like a confirmed reversal. TIL has been pretty unpredictable though so don't bet the house on it!!

[silverblizzard888]

Really surprised by the strength today... A very keen buyer, or was someone covering some shorts?

Technically it is very strong:
- Broken 6 month falling wedge
- Broken 230 resistance and 240 resistance. Next tests 250 and 275
- Broken 100DMA
- DMI, MACD and other indicators turning positive

Looking to me like a confirmed reversal. TIL has been pretty unpredictable though so don't bet the house on it!!

Yes a reversal is on the cards because the market wasn't sure if the company was just going to settle and just consolidate their current markets, so they were only being valued at pe of 11 which factored in little growth. Now that their growth intentions have been signalled then the market is going to reverse their sentiment from their original view and the value is going back a growth company valuation.

[boysy]

Looks like the illiquidity which saw TIL fly and faulted could be back in play. Have the large holders who wanted out reduced their positions to levels they are comfortable with is the question ? Those who sold out a few days ago at low 2s would be kicking themselves if the uptick continues.

[RupertBear]

Well on way to 330 now

Good divie eh couta - well done - well timed (assuming you haven't sold yet)

Couta's been a bit quiet Winner. Hope he hasnt been a bad boy and been banned :ohmy:

[carrom74]

Dividend received,SP up..I am loving it!!

[sb9]

Still think they need to do something about their Candles side of business or else it'll be an on going drag on company's performance....

[BlackPeter]

Couta's been a bit quiet Winner. Hope he hasnt been a bad boy and been banned :ohmy:

Maybe he is busy buying ;)?

Actually - I had another look into their acquisition and start to feel that it adds a lot of value to Trilogy - good skin care products and more manufacturing capacity than they need. There are clear synergies related to manufacturing, marketing and sales.

Given my policy to support local companies (if it makes sense ...) did I buy a small parcel. Not sure I expect them to reach their previous heights anytime soon, but this acquisition should in my view add enough value to stop the continuation of the down trend.

[Balance]

Happy to pick up a few at around $2.10, cum 4.5c dividend.

At this kind of level, very logical for some sort of M&A activity as well.

Always right to buy at $2.10 :D

[King1212]

Always right to buy at $2.10 :D


Well done balance! Can not beat mine though $2.08:D finally black peter said it is a good announcement. Will see the sp back to $3.30...good on you winner....

[stoploss]

BWX's sp is continuing to charge ahead - compelling deal in the making.

Looks like they are doing deals a little further afield ......

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170703/pdf/43kc2zbdxs0q5f.pdf

[IAK]

National Nominees Ltd ACF Australian Ethical Investment Limited still buying. https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/303590

[RupertBear]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/94431543/trilogy-sets-up-ecommerce-retail-space-on-alibabas-tmall

Trilogy sets up e-commerce retail space on Alibaba's T-mall

[JoeGrogan]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/94431543/trilogy-sets-up-ecommerce-retail-space-on-alibabas-tmall

Trilogy sets up e-commerce retail space on Alibaba's T-mall



Good news :t_up:

[silu]

fwiw saw a couple of places in Auckland over the weekend that had massive sales (up to 70%) on Trilogy product.
discl. not a holder

[Jay]

So did I silu.
Don't know if it was not selling and/or they wanted to get rid of to make way for something else.

Not a holder either

[sb9]

So did I silu.
Don't know if it was not selling and/or they wanted to get rid of to make way for something else.

Not a holder either

Second that, did notice that trend recently.

[King1212]

Force is getting strong...might break through $2.50 barrier then heading to $2.70 mark...

[boysy]

Will take the current seller exiting their holding to get TIL going again me thinks. You have to wonder how keen the current seller is to continue to offload their shares in a rising market, perhaps the gulf in PE is being noticed by the Australian fund buying up large of late PE 18x vs 38x for BWX especially if the Chinese market comes good (will NZ and Aussie daigu sales suffer to boost Chinese numbers ?) either way the recent moves by china should help free up this market.

[King1212]

Will take the current seller exiting their holding to get TIL going again me thinks. You have to wonder how keen the current seller is to continue to offload their shares in a rising market, perhaps the gulf in PE is being noticed by the Australian fund buying up large of late PE 18x vs 38x for BWX especially if the Chinese market comes good (will NZ and Aussie daigu sales suffer to boost Chinese numbers ?) either way the recent moves by china should help free up this market.


But when u look at the depth...not a big sellers....buyers are lining up....so confidence gained with Til

[boysy]

Its all off market pressure which has caused the change in sentiment though - many of the trades of late have been off market the $64,000 question is has the party offloaded what they want or do they have more to sell - I take it once the off market seller is done the illiquidity of TIL will return which caused it to rise and fall so much

[King1212]

Its all off market pressure which has caused the change in sentiment though - many of the trades of late have been off market the $64,000 question is has the party offloaded what they want or do they have more to sell - I take it once the off market seller is done the illiquidity of TIL will return which caused it to rise and fall so much


The market can can be a beast...panic sellers..the fundamental of the company is strong...with cpa less than $200m....an update will rocket the sp....happy holder here...

[King1212]

https://insideretail.hk/2017/07/10/new-zealands-trilogy-sets-up-t-mall-flagship/

[winner69]

https://insideretail.hk/2017/07/10/new-zealands-trilogy-sets-up-t-mall-flagship/

Jeez - just imagine if Trilogy got 0.5% of the Japanese market.

Nearly 1/2 billion bucks opportunity

[Balance]

Jeez - just imagine if Trilogy got 0.5% of the Japanese market.

Nearly 1/2 billion bucks opportunity


Hard to go against the Japanese skincare, makeup and beauty care multi-nationals like Shiseido but hi, even $50m revenues from that country will be a great result.

[King1212]

Jeez - just imagine if Trilogy got 0.5% of the Japanese market.

Nearly 1/2 billion bucks opportunity


Good time to get in winner....less than $200m cap company.....could double easily in the near future....:D

[co0p]

A wee bit about the upcoming (August) brand refresh for Ecoya.

http://www.vogue.com.au/vogue+living/design/ecoya+frangrance+house,43396

Seems like a good idea focusing on the Australasian heritage - at least it offers a point of difference from their competitors. Probably targeting Asia.

[winner69]

A wee bit about the upcoming (August) brand refresh for Ecoya.

http://www.vogue.com.au/vogue+living/design/ecoya+frangrance+house,43396

Seems like a good idea focusing on the Australasian heritage - at least it offers a point of difference from their competitors. Probably targeting Asia.

Wonder what this refresh is costing ......and prob cost a small fortune (relative to Ecoya brand sales) to get mentioned in Vogue

Still reckon candles are and will continue to be a drag on group performance.

[co0p]

Wonder what this refresh is costing ......and prob cost a small fortune (relative to Ecoya brand sales) to get mentioned in Vogue

Still reckon candles are and will continue to be a drag on group performance.


Totally agree - if this doesn't work they really should get rid

[LAC]

There must be someone that wants the candle business.....one of the Kadashians might want a fancy candle business:)

[trader_jackson]

There must be someone that wants the candle business.....one of the Kadashians might want a fancy candle business:)

Yes, i think they do like dogs ;)

[LAC]

Birds of a feather flock together....

[peat]

you guys realise that home fragrance, bodycare (Ecoya) is less than 20% of revenue.
this company isnt a dog on fundamentals having grown revenue 25% last year and NPAT similar. 5 year history looks pretty good to me!
9007

[LAC]

I dont think we are referring to the company, I like the company, still a holder. I don't like the candles part of the business, what was the revenue and profit on the candles part of the business?

[winner69]

you guys realise that home fragrance, bodycare (Ecoya) is less than 20% of revenue.
this company isnt a dog on fundamentals having grown revenue 25% last year and NPAT similar. 5 year history looks pretty good to me!
9007

Yes we all appreciate that candles only 20% odd of revenue - problem being it makes stuff all (if any) profit for them

[peat]

1.8 Mill according to FY17
Sure that is not great ratio to the divisions revenue but with overall NPAT climbing strongly (fully in line with revenue) they are obviously making up for that elsewhere.

Rosehip oil is selling a bottle every 20 seconds!

I think its been oversold and am looking for a re-rating.

[percy]

Going from www.4-traders.com
/............................2017.............2018. ........2019........2020.
eps..........................18.................19 .9.........21,2.........23.2
eps growth.......................10.5%............6.5% .........9.5%
PE...........................13.89............12.6 ...........11.8........10.8
Div yield....................02%..............2,58%... ...2.88%.....3.24%
Question With average growth rate of just 8.83%.and low yield why should TIL be rerated?

[winner69]

1.8 Mill according to FY17
Sure that is not great ratio to the divisions revenue but with overall NPAT climbing strongly (fully in line with revenue) they are obviously making up for that elsewhere.

Rosehip oil is selling a bottle every 20 seconds!

I think its been oversold and am looking for a re-rating.

That's ebitda - take off depn etc and a bit of interest get NPAT in the 100s thousands.

[peat]

With average growth rate of just 8.83%.and low yield why should TIL be rerated?
because that growth rate isnt correct ?
historically growth is much higher than that.

[LAC]

I highly highly highly doubt they will get to the historic growth rates (its only 2 years if you really look at it) so why use those, 10% average is what I would use.

[percy]

because that growth rate isnt correct ?
historically growth is much higher than that.

I note the growth rate from 2016 to 2017 was 20%.
The www.4-traders.com future average growth rate is 8.83%.
What do you think would be a realistic %.?

[co0p]

I note the growth rate from 2016 to 2017 was 20%.
The www.4-traders.com (http://www.4-traders.com) future average growth rate is 8.83%.
What do you think would be a realistic %.?

It will be closer to 20% this year.

[peat]

It will be closer to 20% this year.
i would predict more based purely on the numbers but given growth gets harder 20% may be more realistic.

[winner69]

i would predict more based purely on the numbers but given growth gets harder 20% may be more realistic.

You allowing for last years impact of CS acquisition in your prediction of more than 20%

[peat]

You allowing for last years impact of CS acquisition in your prediction of more than 20%

Acquisition was completed in Aug 2015 so 7 1/2 months of trading was included in the FY2016 results and a full year in 2017 , so its all there ....

[winner69]

Acquisition was completed in Aug 2015 so 7 1/2 months of trading was included in the FY2016 results and a full year in 2017 , so its all there ....

What I was trying to say was that the extra months of CS in F16 was one of the main drivers of that 25% increase in revenues but you stille xpect similar growth in F18

What do you think this guidance realy means - TIL expects underlying revenue growth in FY18 to be consistent with FY17 for each segment of the business.

Open to intepretation isn't it?

[percy]

I note the growth rate from 2016 to 2017 was 20%.
The www.4-traders.com future average growth rate is 8.83%.
What do you think would be a realistic %.?

Thanks for the replies.
Brought a few, as I now think the eps growth rate will be higher than the current PE of 13.75.ie 15% to 20% .

[King1212]

Damn! A lot of gurus re rating this unloved TIL...welcome back Percy!....I knew it was a good buy..$2.10....

[percy]

Damn! A lot of gurus re rating this unloved TIL...welcome back Percy!....I knew it was a good buy..$2.10....

Certainly was.Well done.