TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[boysy]

Yes interesting how low it was dumped you have to wonder how a few of the large holders are feeling about selling down at those levels. Will be interesting to see if the Australian fund continues to top up on any weakness going forward.

[boysy]

any one else noticing the much lower discounting across the trilogy range through 3rd party retailers of late. As a large proportion of TIL revenue is made though these independent retailers i take this as a good sign that margins are increasing again. Discounts of >35% were common on chemist warehouse aus for example in the past few months but these have come right back with discounts now around the 15% level off RRP.The reduction in discounting on the most saleable products is also a good sign.

[Balance]

Yes interesting how low it was dumped you have to wonder how a few of the large holders are feeling about selling down at those levels. Will be interesting to see if the Australian fund continues to top up on any weakness going forward.

The probably switched to BWX so are happy?

Maybe, they are now switching back to TIL.

[boysy]

Same headwinds for both companies i would suggest BWX more so as they were pinning their expansion plans on China of late. The biggie has to be what impact on the NZ/Aus daigu channel TIL's t mall move will make, how will this impact NZ and AUS sales ?

[co0p]

Up 8c today. Are we witnessing the Percy effect?

[peat]

Up 8c today. Are we witnessing the Percy effect?

cough cough


What I was trying to say was that the extra months of CS in F16 was one of the main drivers of that 25% increase in revenues but you stille xpect similar growth in F18



Growth from Lanocorp acquisition may compensate? Thats a good business from what I heard.

[King1212]

Any stocks that Percy got in..will turn to gold...

good old Percy!

[kiora]

Up 8c today. Are we witnessing the Percy effect?

Maybe some one waking up to it still being a growth stock

[percy]

cough cough



Growth from Lanocorp acquisition may compensate? Thats a good business from what I heard.

Yes cough cough indeed.
I was watching TIL,and thought the Lonocorp acquisition made good sense.This was confirmed , by an excellent report a friend sent me,put out by Equity Investment Advisers.I was waiting for the share price to come back a bit.After it did not I then decided to buy.

[winner69]

I was convinced that the downtrend ended at 214 .....went down a bit more ....but who cares now the share price is 260

Still reckon a takeover is best outcome .....but in the meantime 300 in a months time will be good.

[King1212]

Yes cough cough indeed.
I was watching TIL,and thought the Lonocorp acquisition made good sense.This was confirmed , by an excellent report a friend sent me,put out by Equity Investment Advisers.I was waiting for the share price to come back a bit.After it did not I then decided to buy.


Come percy! Spit it out..how much the advisers value TIl:D

[percy]

Come percy! Spit it out..how much the advisers value TIl:D

I just loved "We consider the share price could experience a significant rerating"...Classic understatement.!

Their target price has now been upped by Craigs today.$3.70.

Any higher bids? W69.Don't be so modest.!..lol.
Beagle ? Do I hear $4.00???
Peat.,?

[King1212]

****..$3.70 by craigs...should sell my house and bought in when it was $2.10:Dbut well...still good buy!

[winner69]

I just loved "We consider the share price could experience a significant rerating"...Classic understatement.!

Their target price has now been upped by Craigs today.$3.70.

Any higher bids? W69.Don't be so modest.!..lol.
Beagle ? Do I hear $4.00???
Peat.,?

that $3.00 was in a months time .....years time probably $4 seeing Craigs are usually conservative

[boysy]

the illiquidity is working for the SP rather than against it as it has done for the past 12 months. Will be interesting to see at these prices is some sellers come out of the wood work

[Balance]

Absolutely love TIL at $2.10. And plenty was on offer.

[peat]

I just loved "We consider the share price could experience a significant rerating"...Classic understatement.!

Their target price has now been upped by Craigs today.$3.70.

Any higher bids? W69.Don't be so modest.!..lol.
Beagle ? Do I hear $4.00???
Peat.,?

I'll stick with $3:50 for now, until we see next update.

but that fragance (of growth) is becoming stronger

[Balance]

I'll stick with $3:50 for now, until we see next update.

but that fragance (of growth) is becoming stronger

Powering on higher today - Sp is ex 4.49c dividend so that's a plenty good gain of 28% in a month.

Plenty more upside to this kind of growth story however if it captures the attention of US based fund managers - growth story with a dividend yield. Not many like that overseas.

[silverblizzard888]

Currently only one of the few stocks on NZX that are undervalued for its current situation, its a beautiful moment that only matches by AIR's from last year.

[winner69]

Powering on higher today - Sp is ex 4.49c dividend so that's a plenty good gain of 28% in a month.

Plenty more upside to this kind of growth story however if it captures the attention of US based fund managers - growth story with a dividend yield. Not many like that overseas.

Agree mate - that 210/215 looks sweet now eh

[Balance]

Agree mate - that 210/215 looks sweet now eh

The old 'when others are fearful, be greedy?'

[winner69]

What caused BWX to collapse today?

Company specific or industry problem

[co0p]

Wow that is quite a drop.

Their P/E was over 40, probably a case of coming back down to earth.

That ASX report on short positions showed they were heavily shorted (relative to others)

[boysy]

Still on 34x P/E ratio was bound to get hammered sometime with some profit taking

[boysy]

Someone's willing to stump up today off market buyer and seller.

Interesting action on the retail side the sell side depth drying up.

[JoeGrogan]

Someone's willing to stump up today off market buyer and seller.

Interesting action on the retail side the sell side depth drying up.

I just noticed its at 2.54 on the ASX today which translates to 2.71 nzd if i am not mistaken

[Balance]

I just noticed its at 2.54 on the ASX today which translates to 2.71 nzd if i am not mistaken


Always right to buy at $2.10 :D

[RupertBear]

Craigs have initiated full coverage and rate it a strong buy

[kiora]

Craigs have initiated full coverage and rate it a strong buy

Welcome to the party Craigs. Better late than never :)

[Balance]

Craigs have initiated full coverage and rate it a strong buy

Price target & valuation? Thx

[RupertBear]

Price target & valuation? Thx


TP $3.85 at a glance, havnt read the report yet

[RupertBear]

Welcome to the party Craigs. Better late than never :)

While they have only just started full coverage of Triology they have always been very positive on it :)

[boysy]

early movement at the station up to 275 as noted the illiquidity which drove this down is doing the same on the way up.

[Balance]

early movement at the station up to 275 as noted the illiquidity which drove this down is doing the same on the way up.

LOVING TIL at $2.10 more and more everyday!

[JayRiggs]

I sold out at $3.20 last year and now I'm back in.
Hoping to re-coup all my losses in the $3.70 capital raise!

[winner69]

LOVING TIL at $2.10 more and more everyday!

Great stuff eh. I went a bit early on the way down so mine at 210/215

Awesome

Takeover on the cards still you reckon?

[SirPrize]

Craigs have initiated full coverage and rate it a strong buy

Would love to know more.

[RupertBear]

Always right to buy at $2.10 :D

I think you might have bought a few of mine Balance :p lucky I still have a few but I would like a few more :)

[RupertBear]

Would love to know more.

I am wondering if it is ok to post information on here that I am privy to as one of Craigs clients.:confused: I suspect they wouldnt be very happy about it. Be grateful of peoples opinion on this

[King1212]

I am wondering if it is ok to post information on here that I am privy to as one of Craigs clients.:confused: I suspect they wouldnt be very happy about it. Be grateful of peoples opinion on this

Well...just the summary would not hurt:D

[BlackPeter]

I am wondering if it is ok to post information on here that I am privy to as one of Craigs clients.:confused: I suspect they wouldnt be very happy about it. Be grateful of peoples opinion on this

Unless you signed an NDA are you absolutely within your rights to write over the report (like a summary or some key data). Journalists do that as well. What you are not allowed to do is copy / paste of larger sections (I think the NZ copyright law says something like up to 10% is o.k.). But again - first check whether your agreement with Craig's requires you to keep the reports confidential ...

[RupertBear]

Unless you signed an NDA are you absolutely within your rights to write over the report (like a summary or some key data). Journalists do that as well. What you are not allowed to do is copy / paste of larger sections (I think the NZ copyright law says something like up to 10% is o.k.). But again - first check whether your agreement with Craig's requires you to keep the reports confidential ...

Thanks BlackPeter will check it out :)

[t.rexjr]

I think the NZ copyright law says something like up to 10% is o.k

I've heard this said many a time and it's a bit of a myth.
In some instances even using something thats copyrighted as 'inspiration' can be construed as a breach.

[Joshuatree]

Using "snippets "is fine as long as you credit them for that. I and others have done it for years. Putting larger pieces or full articles is a big no no.

[King1212]

Being following their facebook page...trilogy has around 50k likes n followers....it is rapidly increasing..

[boysy]

AGM penciled in for this month should get a good steer on what they are targeting for the full year result.

[co0p]

AGM penciled in for this month should get a good steer on what they are targeting for the full year result.

Normally their AGM is held in September. Have they announced a date yet?

[boysy]

http://investors.tilbrands.com/investor-centre/?page=key-dates

[BlackPeter]

I've heard this said many a time and it's a bit of a myth.
In some instances even using something thats copyrighted as 'inspiration' can be construed as a breach.

Technically you are correct. It is more complicated than that. It depends on whether the 10% you copy are a "substantial part" of the work. Food for advocates. Here is some more information for anybody who wants to dive into the dark maze of our copyright law: http://www.copyright.org.nz/html/blob.php/Fair+dealing.Jan2009.pdf?attach=true&document=338&filetypecode=1&fileId=104

[co0p]

http://investors.tilbrands.com/investor-centre/?page=key-dates

Thank you kindly

[RupertBear]

I am wondering if it is ok to post information on here that I am privy to as one of Craigs clients.:confused: I suspect they wouldnt be very happy about it. Be grateful of peoples opinion on this

Just to follow up on this, all Craigs reports include the following

"This report is a private communication to clients of Craigs Investment Partners Limited resident in New Zealand and is not intended for public circulation or publication or for the use of any third party, without the express prior approval of Craigs Investment Partners Limited."

[t.rexjr]

Just to follow up on this, all Craigs reports include the following

"This report is a private communication to clients of Craigs Investment Partners Limited resident in New Zealand and is not intended for public circulation or publication or for the use of any third party, without the express prior approval of Craigs Investment Partners Limited."

Nothing wrong with discussing though. Which is exactly what they need for it to hit their valuation...

[King1212]

Just to follow up on this, all Craigs reports include the following

"This report is a private communication to clients of Craigs Investment Partners Limited resident in New Zealand and is not intended for public circulation or publication or for the use of any third party, without the express prior approval of Craigs Investment Partners Limited."


oh rupertbear......we all got excited waiting for the summary....then u posted above...:sleep:

[Joshuatree]

A broker has initiated a buy with t/p $3.85.

[Balance]

A broker has initiated a buy with t/p $3.85.

Absolutely love TIL at $2.10 :D

[winner69]

Absolutely love TIL at $2.10 :D

That's 35% gain for you mate .......in just over a month

Only 33% for me

Soon be well into the 300's I reckon

Cool eh

[King1212]

A broker has initiated a buy with t/p $3.85.


That is a dollar from current sp...ehmm..I should buy more...

$3.85 target..it will make TIL to $280m cap company. With $100 plus revenue and ow debts...I think it easy to achieve the sp target.

[boysy]

Must be about due a SSH notice plenty of shares hanging hands in the past week is the Australian ethical fund continuing to buy and who continues to sell ?

[King1212]

ASX at $3 now....

[t.rexjr]

ASX at $3 now....

Big jump on low volumes. I'm hoping liquidity improves on this stock. Loathed to buy too many if they're a hard sell...

[peat]

ASX at $3 now....
sellers at $2.80 though.....

[BlackPeter]

Just doing my investor-chores and updating these spreadsheets ...

Anybody noticed that Trilogy broke this week back through the MA200? I.e. - it might be now even for more cautious investors a good time to backup the truck ... the new uptrend looks just a bit more secure:);

Discl: holding;

[King1212]

Just doing my investor-chores and updating these spreadsheets ...

Anybody noticed that Trilogy broke this week back through the MA200? I.e. - it might be now even for more cautious investors a good time to backup the truck ... the new uptrend looks just a bit more secure:);

Discl: holding;

What do u mean black peter? Are u saying the trend is going up from now on?

[BlackPeter]

What do u mean black peter? Are u saying the trend is going up from now on?

Nobody can predict the future ... not even me ;);

I am saying that many investors (including some experts) consider a break above the MA200 as a quite solid indicator for an uptrend, and some see it as the major trend indicator. Obviously you need to look at this in context (a brief squibble does not count).

As well - the trend is your friend until the bent in the end ... but personally I would think that they have from here still some time to go upwards. I do see the Lanocorp acquisition in late June as a masterstroke and game changer for them.

[King1212]

Nobody can predict the future ... not even me ;);

I am saying that many investors (including some experts) consider a break above the MA200 as a quite solid indicator for an uptrend, and some see it as the major trend indicator. Obviously you need to look at this in context (a brief squibble does not count).

As well - the trend is your friend until the bent in the end ... but personally I would think that they have from here still some time to go upwards. I do see the Lanocorp acquisition in late June as a masterstroke and game changer for them.

thanks BP.....for your input. I am considering to top up...my last buy was great! $2.08 to 2.10 but small parcels. I am following thier Facebook page, the followers are increasingly everyday. So far 50k people. A lot of good comments. My colleague also use thier products. She said...absolutely great products especially thier new serum....

i did the maths....if the Facebook followers spend at least a minimum $400 for thier cosmetic alone...(my wife is not a huge cosmetic user but that what she spends yearly) that will make 50k followers *$400 = $20m revenue guaranteed yearly. Not to mention other revenues....

but that my research.....thanks.

[winner69]

What do u mean black peter? Are u saying the trend is going up from now on?

Previous time it went up through the 200MA TIL was a 10 bagger or there about

Good eh

[Balance]

Previous time it went up through the 200MA TIL was a 10 bagger or there about

Good eh

Haha - I think most will be happy to settle for a 3 baggers after the scare?

[King1212]

I am happy with $3.85 target....:D

[boysy]

Would be good to see some solid guidance from the AGM. The wishy washy guidance provided for the coming year helped the slide down to 2.05.

[Pricey]

thanks BP.....for your input. I am considering to top up...my last buy was great! $2.08 to 2.10 but small parcels. I am following thier Facebook page, the followers are increasingly everyday. So far 50k people. A lot of good comments. My colleague also use thier products. She said...absolutely great products especially thier new serum....

i did the maths....if the Facebook followers spend at least a minimum $400 for thier cosmetic alone...(my wife is not a huge cosmetic user but that what she spends yearly) that will make 50k followers *$400 = $20m revenue guaranteed yearly. Not to mention other revenues....

but that my research.....thanks.

You can buy Facebook followers. Not saying that Trilogy have done so, but it should only really be seen as a litmus test at best.

[King1212]

If can be bought..why comvita does not do so? With market cap $400 m ish....comvita can surely buy the same followers n likes with TIL. Instead comvita only has 10k likes n less than 10k followers....

[stoploss]

If can be bought..why comvita does not do so? With market cap $400 m ish....comvita can surely buy the same followers n likes with TIL. Instead comvita only has 10k likes n less than 10k followers....

Maybe Comvita "like" to do it the honest way , instead of buying them ????

[Balance]

Maybe Comvita "like" to do it the honest way , instead of buying them ????

Comvita 'honest'?

Good one!

[King1212]

You are right Peter. I studied the MA200 chart...the last time down trend when it his below $3.90 then down since mid Oct 2016. Just hit back n crossed the line $2.70 couple weeks ago...n sign of uptrend....

Very interesting...something that I learned...Thanks. top up a small parcel this arvo...looking forward for the up date.

[King1212]

Just received monthly August report from Craig. On the summary:

TIL- a rosy outlook. Overweight......

[boysy]

big day 720k turnover must be a shareholder notice coming shortly - 1% of shares changing hands today

[thestg]

big day 720k turnover must be a shareholder notice coming shortly - 1% of shares changing hands today



Last
VWAP
Buy
Sell
High
Low
First
Volume
Value




425 ¢
(NZD)




2
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif
0.5%





09/08 17:03 NZT






425.01
424
425
426
424
426
111,616
$474,380



$474K turnover = 0.1%
Cheers

[King1212]

Last
VWAP
Buy
Sell
High
Low
First
Volume
Value




425 ¢
(NZD)




2
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif
0.5%





09/08 17:03 NZT






425.01
424
425
426
424
426
111,616
$474,380



$474K turnover = 0.1%
Cheers


:confused: Is it TIL trading at $4.25 now?....time to sell balance! Double up already!

[thestg]

:confused: Is it TIL trading at $4.25 now?....time to sell balance! Double up already!

Oops! Got TIL & THL mixed up. Sorry. Wish it was $4.25, Maybe soon.

Disc: Own both THL & TIL

[percy]

Taken them some time,however Pie Funds are now under 5%.
Do n't think we will see them take such a big position in a company again.

[boysy]

Who's been buying up large is the obvious question

[Hectorplains]

Who's been buying up large is the obvious question


No one today . Volume 36 531. A whole $100K.

[winner69]

BWX had solid result and keep their promise

Outlook - FY18 EBITDA outlook for growth to comfortably exceed the 30.7% increase achieved in FY17

Greater growth than Trilogy will be producing

[silverblizzard888]

BWX had solid result and keep their promise

Outlook - FY18 EBITDA outlook for growth to comfortably exceed the 30.7% increase achieved in FY17

Greater growth than Trilogy will be producing

Growth might be a bit higher though the PE gap is too big 36 vs 15, if we imply 25% growth for Trilogy then the equivalent for BWX is 300% profit growth which wouldn't make sense and if we imply a 30% growth as a base for BWX then for Trilogy their growth is priced at 2.5% growth. Either way doesn't make sense so clearly one is overvalued or one is undervalued.

[winner69]

Nearly a year ago on ASM day the proverbial hit the fan with that earnings guidance they announced - share price before hand was over $4.60

Wonder what this years ASM will bring?

All we have to work on is a wishy washy vague forecast along the lines of TIL expects underlying revenue growth in FY18 to be consistent with FY17 for each segment of the business....and TIL Group EBITDA will continue to grow, despite gross margin compression as a result of higher raw material prices within Trilogy skincare.



Wonder what 'consistent' and 'each' actually implies ...without double counting again

[winner69]

Growth might be a bit higher though the PE gap is too big 36 vs 15, if we imply 25% growth for Trilogy then the equivalent for BWX is 300% profit growth which wouldn't make sense and if we imply a 30% growth as a base for BWX then for Trilogy their growth is priced at 2.5% growth. Either way doesn't make sense so clearly one is overvalued or one is undervalued.

No doubt you maths are correct ...but I don't quite follow the logic

Can be a bit thick at times ...and lazy in not thinking it through

[silverblizzard888]

No doubt you maths are correct ...but I don't quite follow the logic

Can be a bit thick at times ...and lazy in not thinking it through

I'm just saying based on the pricing for growth, that BWX seems highly priced or Trilogy is highly undervalued

[winner69]

I'm just saying based on the pricing for growth, that BWX seems highly priced or Trilogy is highly undervalued

Got that bit ...just the %s you came up with

Never mind, agree with you .......but the valuation gap may be a permanent thing ...whatever the reason is.

FYI I reckon BWX on 14 times forward ebitda and TIL on 8 to 9 - same conclusion.

[King1212]

Quite a sell off lately, if goes down $2.70 mark..we will see a test of $2.50 again.....

[JoeGrogan]

Quite a sell off lately, if goes down $2.70 mark..we will see a test of $2.50 again.....

Think i'll be topping up if it enters the 2.50's

[King1212]

Think i'll be topping up if it enters the 2.50's

Get ready! The chart shows weakness on current support....I think it will hit $2.50 till the AGM forecast and global uncertainty ....I m holding mine..not selling not topping....

[BlackPeter]

Think i'll be topping up if it enters the 2.50's

I certainly would ...

[King1212]

Believe it or not...thier Facebook followers n likes grow around 350 ish during the last 2 weeks....

[stoploss]

Believe it or not...thier Facebook followers n likes grow around 350 ish during the last 2 weeks....
King you can buy that many likes for 5 bucks , it really doesn't mean anything ( fake news)
BWX looks to be doing ok , maybe it will rub off ...

[King1212]

King you can buy that many likes for 5 bucks , it really doesn't mean anything ( fake news)
BWX looks to be doing ok , maybe it will rub off ...

how the hell with $72 revenue n around NPAT $13....made BWX to $500 m cap company....n TIL has more than $100 revenue only $200 cap company....share market aye....anything can happen...:eek2:

[Yoda]

how the hell with $72 revenue n around NPAT $13....made BWX to $500 m cap company....n TIL has more than $100 revenue only $200 cap company....share market aye....anything can happen...:eek2:
When people loose confidence , you get hammered, and once bitten twice shy. She will rise once more, but will take time i think .

[winner69]

how the hell with $72 revenue n around NPAT $13....made BWX to $500 m cap company....n TIL has more than $100 revenue only $200 cap company....share market aye....anything can happen...:eek2:

Higher growth forecasts and punters have a higher degree of confidence in their ability to deliver and BWX more succinct in their outlook (like greater than 39% earnings growth v TIL wishy washy vague statement)

And BWX being australian on the ASX helps a lot

I would expect the valuation gap to remain quite high for a long time.

[co0p]

It seems Coles has decided to stop stocking Goodness products - disappointing

[King1212]

Think i'll be topping up if it enters the 2.50's

Your wish came true gentlemen! Mind u, a forecast update is due anytime......

[trader_jackson]

how the hell with $72 revenue n around NPAT $13....made BWX to $500 m cap company....n TIL has more than $100 revenue only $200 cap company....share market aye....anything can happen...:eek2:

Maybe they aren't quite comparable?
(not the first time I've mentioned this...)

Wasn't TIL listing on the asx meant to solve this problem? with the big re-rating etc etc

[King1212]

Maybe they aren't quite comparable?
(not the first time I've mentioned this...)

Wasn't TIL listing on the asx meant to solve this problem? with the big re-rating etc etc

come tj ..u got to admit it this time...$2.10 was a good buy:)

[trader_jackson]

come tj ..u got to admit it this time...$2.10 was a good buy:)

Even if it is down 10 ish percent these past few days, at $2.10, it would have been very hard to get any cheaper - whether it would rebound so fast was another question.

[King1212]

Even if it is down 10 ish percent these past few days, at $2.10, it would have been very hard to get any cheaper - whether it would rebound so fast was another question.

My gut feeling, it will goes back to $3...so...wait and see another couple weeks. Forecast update is due any time....

[silverblizzard888]

My gut feeling, it will goes back to $3...so...wait and see another couple weeks. Forecast update is due any time....

Last years half year forecast was 22nd September 2016, so we are probably about one month from it.

[King1212]

Check 2015 n 2014...there were surprised announcement in August or early September... Who know we might have out of the blue announcement.....

[winner69]

What's up with BWX - in trading halt until Tuesday

Must have bought something?

[Dust]

What's up with BWX - in trading halt until Tuesday

Must have bought something?

They're acquiring Nourished Life

[King1212]

Tempted to buy more at this price...anyone?

[peat]

Tempted to buy more at this price...anyone?
PE only slightly higher than LTGrowth on my system. Soon Percy will buy some!

[percy]

PE only slightly higher than LTGrowth on my system. Soon Percy will buy some!

Ha ha ,so very true.!!!
Because of the lot higher dividend yield, I have been in the meantime slowing adding to my TRA.
However,the time is fast approaching, as I agree with your system.!!
Next update should confirm you are right.

[King1212]

Buying more Percy?

[percy]

Buying more Percy?

Soon I think.
Just waiting for TRA agm on the 20th and their outlook.Aso not sure whether to sell our OIC on market, or wait until the takeover runs full course,and a further update from TIL.
Just sitting well positioned.

[noodles]

Angela (CEO) speaking tonight at NZSA function. All welcome. Details here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10844-NZSA-Auckland-Meetings-and-Events&p=685050&viewfull=1#post685050

[DarkHorse]

How did she do?

[sb9]

Angela (CEO) speaking tonight at NZSA function. All welcome. Details here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10844-NZSA-Auckland-Meetings-and-Events&p=685050&viewfull=1#post685050

Not sure what she spoke y'day at the NZSA function, with a week to go for ASM the chart does look pretty terrible. If the trading guidance/update isn't great at the time ASM we might see sub $2 soon.

[King1212]

Not sure what she spoke y'day at the NZSA function, with a week to go for ASM the chart does look pretty terrible. If the trading guidance/update isn't great at the time ASM we might see sub $2 soon.


It will....the news will be good....

[peat]

the chart does look pretty terrible.

I disagree ;)

[winner69]

Not sure what she spoke y'day at the NZSA function, with a week to go for ASM the chart does look pretty terrible. If the trading guidance/update isn't great at the time ASM we might see sub $2 soon.

Looked amazingly good going from 210 to 280 odd ....but agree with you the 280 odd to 225 looks pretty terrible

Share price back to where it was full year announcement time ....and it did fall abit from there as well eh

Maybe the market is seeing through that wishy washy guidance they gave for F18 ....and the double counting mislead a few to think 20% plus growth was on the cards

Current market action would say likeliehood of being taken over has diminshed and that a more specific guidance at ASM might be a bit disappointing

Wouldn't want the same reaction as to what haoppened a year ago - shock the market again - and the share price might head to 180 or something

[King1212]

Looked amazingly good going from 210 to 280 odd ....but agree with you the 280 odd to 225 looks pretty terrible

Share price back to where it was full year announcement time ....and it did fall abit from there as well eh

Maybe the market is seeing through that wishy washy guidance they gave for F18 ....and the double counting mislead a few to think 20% plus growth was on the cards

Current market action would say likeliehood of being taken over has diminshed and that a more specific guidance at ASM might be a bit disappointing

Wouldn't want the same reaction as to what haoppened a year ago - shock the market again - and the share price might head to 180 or something


what happen when the guidance is good, the news is good? the SP will go beyond $3?

I guess, no news is a good news...eh???

[sb9]

what happen when the guidance is good, the news is good? the SP will go beyond $3?

I guess, no news is a good news...eh???

If the news is good, that is the trading numbers are better than expected they would've provided an update by now, for me in this case no news is bad news...

[percy]

I am holding myself at the ready.Good news buy more,steady news hold,poor news sell.
At present time I am expecting either good news, or steady news.

[King1212]

why would they do it? AGM is next week...5 business days away..a good business is concentrating with the business not with the share price...

[peat]

why would they do it? AGM is next week...5 business days away..a good business is concentrating with the business not with the share price...

My understanding is that they must advise if there is any material change from whats been said before (guidance) as soon as it becomes apparent , and that this can not be held back for a meeting.
This means that meetings should not be the bringer of any material good/bad news because that conflicts with continuous disclosure requirement
Meetings can not create an 'insider trading' scenario

[forest]

Maybe the market is seeing through that wishy washy guidance they gave for F18 ....and the double counting mislead a few to think 20% plus growth was on the cards. Quote, Winner.

Winner I have been to past ASM and talked to CEO Angela Buglass.
I had a discussion with her about the glass of the candles which at times spontaneously explodes. Her take on it was very wishy washy. I did find her unusual in that she did not give straight answers. One would expect that it is possible to have a discussion with a CEO and stay on subject however she disappointed me in this. If this is her style of communicating than it does not look good for the future of TIL.

[percy]

Not sure what she spoke y'day at the NZSA function, with a week to go for ASM the chart does look pretty terrible. If the trading guidance/update isn't great at the time ASM we might see sub $2 soon.

Anyone know whether she turned up or not.?

[winner69]

This is the only guidance Trilogy have given


Outlook

TIL expects underlying revenue growth in FY18 to be consistent with FY17 for each segment of the business.

TIL Group EBITDA will continue to grow, despite gross margin compression as a result of higher raw material prices within Trilogy skincare.

Consistent with prior years, we expect revenue and EBITDA to be skewed towards the second half.


As long as they aren't too far away from that (whatever it means) no need for disclosure. However hopefully they will be more specific at the ASM like last year when they gave what H1 was likely to be and a broad range for FY revenues and ebitda. Remember that, sounded great on % ages but so wishy washy the share price collapsed big time.

Share price heading to 5 bucks wasn't it this time last year when no news was good news I believe

[carrom74]

If i am correct, last year the guidance came on the day of the ASM... 22nd sept 2016.May be they may repeat the same.Who knows?

[winner69]

If i am correct, last year the guidance came on the day of the ASM... 22nd sept 2016.May be they may repeat the same.Who knows?

Correct on first point ...and hopefully they will do the same again this year and be a bit more specific about where F18 is heading

After all H! is almost over and if they dont have a good idea what that is bringing something wrong eh .....but no worries even if H1 is a bit slack because we will reminded that full year results are always skewed to second half of the year

[King1212]

So tempted to buy this arvo...but no money....really want to break in my saving...but if wife found out...man...no sex for months...lol

[carrom74]

Correct on first point ...and hopefully they will do the same again this year and be a bit more specific about where F18 is heading

After all H! is almost over and if they dont have a good idea what that is bringing something wrong eh .....but no worries even if H1 is a bit slack because we will reminded that full year results are always skewed to second half of the year

Thanks winner! I still believe the slide is a bit overdone despite acquisitions and TIL positioning itself for growth.An early +ve guidance(may be tomorrow) would definitely do all the shareholders a world of good.Fingers crossed.

[bull....]

heading to new lows ? from the dead cat bounce

[co0p]

I feel if the 1H result was going backwards (compared to last year) we would know by now.

The question is - what is stronger, the tailwinds or the headwinds?

Tailwinds:
Some organic growth (possibly)
Additional quarter of CS&Co distributing natural products in NZ and no "inventory" adjustment
Less "investment" in Goodness as sales increase
Lanocorp contribution (one quarter)
CBEC (T-mall, Alibaba) contribution
Lower interest cost

Headwinds:
Raw material costs
BWX going great guns


Honestly, I have no idea....

[King1212]

I have a gut feeling..it is going to be a good news....TIL has great products...regular update
s on thier Facebook of new products...low debts....so let see this Thursday.....

[winner69]

The masters of regularly spinning good stories seem to have been pretty quiet of late ...hmm

Need to say something at ASM ...even if it is ebitda will be a little bit more than last year.

[boysy]

Someone thought different at the end of the day winner. Outlook should be very interesting at the ASM negative news has been priced in at this level so won't take much positivity to change the sp direction me thinks

[boysy]

Well the day of truth tomorrow what are watchers expecting on the 1st half and FY guidance ?

[mondograss]

I'm expecting them to announce bringing manufacturing in house using Lanocorp facilities along with some numbers about how that improves their outlook.

[boysy]

That would be an obvious way to improve profit going forward. Would be good to cut out the distributor middle man in Australia and undertake a cs co type purchase

[mondograss]

That would be an obvious way to improve profit going forward. Would be good to cut out the distributor middle man in Australia and undertake a cs co type purchase

Not sure they can afford to do that unless it's a fairly small player, which would probably hurt them in the medium term. Most of the big players are far too big to take on, even just to have a piece and a seat on the board would probably cost too much. MCP seems to be the smallest of the listed ones and is about the same market cap as TIL.

[boysy]

Funny you mention Mcp they are currently trilogy's Australian distributor the middle man certainly takes his cut

[mondograss]

Funny you mention Mcp they are currently trilogy's Australian distributor the middle man certainly takes his cut

I've suggested in the past that a deeper tie up between MCP and TIL might make sense. MCP have had a lot of problems with their NZ distribution arm so CS&Co could assist there, while also giving TIL more control over distribution in Aus. MCP have also been focusing much more heavily on their health and beauty product lines.

[boysy]

Could be a match made in heaven let's just hope some positive news comes out of tomorrow. Earnings wise I think trilogy will be found well to break mod- late $50m revenue and and $8.5m ebitda. Would be good to have a succinct guidance range like what was provided last year, as winner previously mentioned the FY2017 results guidance for FY18 was weak at best to suggest "til expects underlying revenue growth in FY18 to be consistent with FY17 for each of the business"

[King1212]

Volume increased last couple days at ASX and NzX...so must be a good news tomorrow..bring on $3.....

[boysy]

Yes the volume on the ASX is interesting, also its clear a major holder wants out but someone is equally willing to continue to top up at these levels.

[trader_jackson]

After the initial fizz from the upbeat acquisition announcement earlier slowly ran out of steam, a lot of optimism (hope?) posts have appeared on here these last few days - I hope for holders it is met/confirmed tomorrow otherwise we might see a $1 in front of TIL's price (as investors price in even lower than already low growth).

Surely they won't make the same mistake they did at last years AGM and issue wishy washy guidance (which kicked off the dramatic downfall some might find hard to believe: TIL nearly halving in share price in just 1 year)

What might be even harder to believe is how "the comparable" (well, so it is believed by some) BWX is up over $1 from where they were this time last year.

Even harder to believe than the two hard things above that BWX hasn't just taken over TIL, if it was trading at such bargain levels implied by others, after all, BWX is over 3x bigger

[boysy]

Well results should be out before trading commences either way that PE of 12 looks tempting either way

[trader_jackson]

NZX website says PE is 13.2? So a fall of over 9% would give a PE of 12 which would naturally make it more tempting. (Although NZX website sometimes is wrong).

Pre market?

[winner69]

Could be a match made in heaven let's just hope some positive news comes out of tomorrow. Earnings wise I think trilogy will be found well to break mod- late $50m revenue and and $8.5m ebitda. Would be good to have a succinct guidance range like what was provided last year, as winner previously mentioned the FY2017 results guidance for FY18 was weak at best to suggest "til expects underlying revenue growth in FY18 to be consistent with FY17 for each of the business"

Suppose 'exceeding $50m' isn't your mid-late $50m

And 'exceed $6m' is a bit short of your $8.5m eh

Bit disappointing this latest guidance?

[thestg]

Results:
Revenue +25% EBITDA +19% EPS $0.18
Looking good.

[Well Endowed]

possibly being overly conservative given previous guidance. but fairly underwhelming in my view. I'll sit on the sidelines awhile longer here. anything below $2 and I'd be considering a re-entry

[King1212]

Overall good news....on track to deliver what they promised on last update...which is good!

[winner69]

So H1 revenues last year $47.8m and this year 'exceed $50m' probably means $51m

H1 EBITDA last year $7,2m and this year 'eceed $6m' probably means $6.1m

To me that's profit going backwards on sales growth that isn't that much

Isn't there a few extra months of CS this year .....and a bit of Lanocorp this year
i
No doubt when H1 released we will have a 'normalised' figure

And if FY ebitda is going to be at least 10% uo the second half is going to be a boomer




The secret of reading Trilogy reports is trying to workout what they don't say

[winner69]

Results:
Revenue +25% EBITDA +19% EPS $0.18
Looking good.

Think that's history mate

But better buy heaps more today seeing looking good

[winner69]

Still in love with candles aren't they

Just saying

[Beagle]

So H1 revenues last year $47.8m and this year 'exceed $50m' probably means $51m

H1 EBITDA last year $7,2m and this year 'eceed $6m' probably means $6.1m

To me that's profit going backwards on sales growth that isn't that much

Isn't there a few extra months of CS this year .....and a bit of Lanocorp this year
i
No doubt when H1 released we will have a 'normalised' figure

And if FY ebitda is going to be at least 10% uo the second half is going to be a boomer

The secret of reading Trilogy reports is trying to workout what they don't say

I concur with you mate. This so called growth company doesn't impress. I have some history in a professional capacity with privately owned cosmetics companies. What's hot one minute is like yesterday's newspaper when Women find some product that they think will make them look more beautiful. The continual need for product refreshment and repackaging, (making old sheep look like fresh young lambs so too speak) is always something companies like this need to invest in on an ongoing basis. Disingenuous to think of these sort of costs as one-off extraordinary items.

[winner69]

Overall good news....on track to deliver what they promised on last update...which is good!

Market shares your views

That's good as they the ultimate judge

[percy]

'Australasian skincare retail landscape has slowed as retail growth has been impacted by declining non domestic consumption."
I can't see that landscape changing in the foreseeable future.
The only catalyst to the sp will be a surprise upgrade to sales into UK,US or China.
I am not holding my breath.

[sb9]

'Australasian skincare retail landscape has slowed as retail growth has been impacted by declining non domestic consumption."
I can't see that landscape changing in the foreseeable future.
The only catalyst to the sp will be a surprise upgrade to sales into UK,US or China.
I am not holding my breath.

I take that you've sold out today percy...

[co0p]

Sounds like they've had a tough 1H. To achieve guidance the 2H is going to have to be amazing!

They have to get rid of Ecoya - it's a dog.

[Everwood]

It's down to $2.20 a drop of 20 cents. If it drops below $2 I might consider purchasing some more shares.

[percy]

I take that you've sold out today percy...

No,I have not sold any.
I was looking to double our holding, had the out look been more positive.
I have decided against buying more in the meantime.
The PE ratio is 12.1....I still think eps growth will be higher than that for the coming year,but they are going to have to work hard to achieve it.
You never know what may turn up in US,UK ,China or elsewhere,just Australasia looks challenging.

[mondograss]

Well they did say they had new channels to announce in the not too distant future for Trilogy and new distribution initiatives to announce on Ecoya.

[King1212]

Looking good so to top up....anyone buyinG?

[fiasco]

Looking good so to top up....anyone buyinG?

Just topped up. Report was what I was expecting, based on history they're being conservative which is fine with me. Rather be conservative and over-deliver (hopeful).

[Well Endowed]

down 15% $2.05, wide bid/ask, $2/$2.15. but not pretty. should find support around here. but looks like the good ol days of growth are well gone...

[King1212]

Just topped up. Report was what I was expecting, based on history they're being conservative which is fine with me. Rather be conservative and over-deliver (hopeful).

Thier forecast is very conservative...I don't see any bad news on it. Slide 36

[co0p]

The forecast for 1H is a shocker, 2H is amazing, overall is average

[trader_jackson]

After the initial fizz from the upbeat acquisition announcement earlier slowly ran out of steam, a lot of optimism (hope?) posts have appeared on here these last few days - I hope for holders it is met/confirmed tomorrow otherwise we might see a $1 in front of TIL's price (as investors price in even lower than already low growth).

Surely they won't make the same mistake they did at last years AGM and issue wishy washy guidance (which kicked off the dramatic downfall some might find hard to believe: TIL nearly halving in share price in just 1 year)

What might be even harder to believe is how "the comparable" (well, so it is believed by some) BWX is up over $1 from where they were this time last year.

Even harder to believe than the two hard things above that BWX hasn't just taken over TIL, if it was trading at such bargain levels implied by others, after all, BWX is over 3x bigger

A few on here got the old rose tinted glasses on? share price at $2.06 down over 14%... the market is the final decider on how things are I suppose...

Maybe my $1 in front of it by the end of the week wasn't that inaccurate (I was hoping it would be for the olders...)

[winner69]

Previous outlook was TIL expects underlying revenue growth in FY18 to be consistent with FY17 for each segment of the business

which implied Natural Products +17% Home Fragrance +7% and CS&Co +27% (and then add in acquisitions)

The promise doesn't look like it's being kept

Over promising / under delivering

But H2 is going to be a boomer so no worries




How many times recently have all these better second halfs not eventuated ....lots

Hope is not a strategy

[winner69]

Wonder if any body is interested in buying them now?

The big pay day still on the cards?

[Balance]

Wonder if any body is interested in buying them now?

The big pay day still on the cards?

Always right to buy at $2.10, W69.

Takeover by BWX or merger probability increases with sp back to current levels.

[King1212]

Lucky buyer that pick up @2.06...hopefully not winner that did the down ramping n created fear early this morning..lol

[bull....]

dreadful . those new lows wont be to far away reckon

[silu]

Am I the only one bearish on TIL? If shorting were allowed I would have opened short positions everything over $2.50.

[Balance]

Am I the only one bearish on TIL? If shorting were allowed I would have opened short positions everything over $2.50.

Give Forsyth Barr a call - they can arrange for you to short stocks, subject to availability.

TIL with a market cap of over $100m would be available, I believe.

[Balance]

Give Forsyth Barr a call - they can arrange for you to short stocks, subject to availability.

TIL with a market cap of over $100m would be available, I believe.

Brave person to short a stock like TIL which could be subject to corporate activity any day - but hi, that's why there is a market and a shorting facility provided by the likes of Forsyth barr.

BWX now on F17 PER of 26.8X and F18 PER of 23.7X - vs TIL (@$2.23) on F17 PER of 13.2X and F18 PER of 12X.

BWX could takeover TIL on a PER of 16X ($3.00) and still enjoy a huge uplift in EPS - one scenario I assess as likely to happen.

[carrom74]

Lucky buyer that pick up @2.06...hopefully not winner that did the down ramping n created fear early this morning..lol
Looks like if he does not sell soon... he will just as unlucky as most of us:(

[winner69]

Brave person to short a stock like TIL which could be subject to corporate activity any day - but hi, that's why there is a market and a shorting facility provided by the likes of Forsyth barr.

BWX now on F17 PER of 26.8X and F18 PER of 23.7X - vs TIL (@$2.23) on F17 PER of 13.2X and F18 PER of 12X.

BWX could takeover TIL on a PER of 16X ($3.00) and still enjoy a huge uplift in EPS - one scenario I assess as likely to happen.

BMX been fine tuning their M&A skills lately ......you would think that Trilogy is still(?) on their short lists

Unless the ex chairman lining up some big global player

Yep 200/210 is complete bottom for the share price - wpouldn't want to miss out on the 300 plus takeover would we

[trader_jackson]

BMX been fine tuning their M&A skills lately ......you would think that Trilogy is still(?) on their short lists

Unless the ex chairman lining up some big global player

Yep 200/210 is complete bottom for the share price - wpouldn't want to miss out on the 300 plus takeover would we

I mentioned this yesterday, curious as to why BWX hasn't even bothered trying... maybe they are waiting for the 3rd AGM in a row TIL provide wishy washy guidance (ie another year away).

Some were convinced in late June that they had got a never to be seen again bargain at the low $2 mark... yet we are here again just 3 months later... maybe another press release about a nice company they have taken over and how wonderful things will be etc will ensure it doesn't go sub $2 (which would make the already terrible chat, even worse).

Lets also hope the next year following the AGM isn't like the last, where the share price proceeded to nearly halve - I don't think the PE can get much lower than 11.8 it is on right now, but I'm not sure how TIL will really go... so there isn't much reason for me to buy it (I have been skeptical of their products - what drives any business - since the good old days when the share price was nudging $5, as many will know) I've always preferred to buy other companies, that (mostly) have double digit growth, with a tangible and favorable outlook trading at the same or less PE than TIL is today.

The hype and optimism on the form these last few days has unfortunately not been lived up to and the share price reaction today confirms this loud and clear - lets hope for the big take over offer by BWX for something exotic like $2.50 or maybe the big $3 - then again, do they want to buy what is fast turning into a Dog? (at least parts of the business sure are!)

[stoploss]

"Trilogy said increased costs of rosehip oil, its investment in relaunching its Ecoya brand, and margin compression from a weaker New Zealand dollar had impacted on its first-half profitability, though that has been offset by upside from its acquisition of Lanocorp."

Just wondering , I thought they purchased or invested in a plantation in South America to guarantee supply of Rosehip oil , did this agreement not lock in an advantageous price ?

[mondograss]

They don't supply all of the Rosehip oil that Trilogy uses, just a decent percentage of it.

[co0p]

I mentioned this yesterday, curious as to why BWX hasn't even bothered trying... maybe they are waiting for the 3rd AGM in a row TIL provide wishy washy guidance (ie another year away).Some were convinced in late June that they had got a never to be seen again bargain at the low $2 mark... yet we are here again just 3 months later... maybe another press release about a nice company they have taken over and how wonderful things will be etc will ensure it doesn't go sub $2 (which would make the already terrible chat, even worse). Lets also hope the next year following the AGM isn't like the last, where the share price proceeded to nearly halve - I don't think the PE can get much lower than 11.8 it is on right now, but I'm not sure how TIL will really go... so there isn't much reason for me to buy it (I have been skeptical of their products - what drives any business - since the good old days when the share price was nudging $5, as many will know) I've always preferred to buy other companies, that (mostly) have double digit growth, with a tangible and favorable outlook trading at the same or less PE than TIL is today.The hype and optimism on the form these last few days has unfortunately not been lived up to and the share price reaction today confirms this loud and clear - lets hope for the big take over offer by BWX for something exotic like $2.50 or maybe the big $3 - then again, do they want to buy what is fast turning into a Dog? (at least parts of the business sure are!)PEB and AFT must be the exceptions :-)

[co0p]

Did anyone go to the AGM?

[King1212]

Today news was not a bad news....they are very conservative...



MKTUPDTE: TIL: Trilogy International Ltd Provides 1H18 and FY18 Guidance





Trilogy International Ltd Provides 1H18 Guidance





New Zealand, 28 September 2017- Trilogy International Limited (NZX:TIL) (the


Company or TIL) announced today at the AGM, revenue and EBITDA guidance for


the half year to 30 September 2017.





For the six months ending 30 September 2017, TIL expects revenue to exceed


$50million, and EBITDA to exceed $6million.





TIL expects full year revenue and EBITDA growth in FY18 to be greater than


10%, subject to the performance of our developing market in China.





Consistent with prior years, TIL expects revenue and EBITDA growth to be


skewed towards the second half.





"FY17 was another remarkable year for the Group, achieving more than $100


million in revenue for the first time. It has provided a good platform for


consistent growth in FY18" said Angela Buglass, TIL Chief Executive Officer.


"Despite a challenging first half we have sustained market position, set up


China CBEC, and we are in a strong position to continue to deliver


accelerated growth in the second half".





Grant Baker, TIL Chairman, said, "TIL's expected performance in FY18


demonstrates our focus on building scale in our brands, expanding into


emerging markets, and the value of our newest acquisition of Lanocorp Ltd. We


are on track with executing on our strategic priorities, and are well


positioned for a strong second half ".

[forest]

Yes, I attended the AGM.
The meeting was ok, the CEO and Chair did the usual overview of the different parts of the business. They talked about growth, however the EBITDA forecast for the first halve of the present financial year is $6mil plus. In the PCP it was $7.2mil. So it is more than likely that EBITDA in the first halve is a less than last year. The forecast for the full year is >10% compared with last year. It seems the market is not convinced as the SP went down.

[winner69]

King - what they said this time last year and confirmed later in the year was sort of achieved (even though at the lower end of guidance) - so that guidance was about right and definitely not an under promise over deliver one (if that is what 'conservative' means)

And I would hazard a guess that the wishy washy guidance given a few months ago has turned out to be a bit muddier than most thought - definitely not under promising over delivering

So 10% plus a fraction more for F18 is about it if things go to form I reckon

No wonder the market reacted a bit badly todsy

[Snow Leopard]

A quick & dirty evaluation gives around $2.50 - $2.60 as fair value.

So a sub $2 price would be 'interesting'.

[kiora]

Yes, I attended the AGM as a guest.
The meeting was ok, the CEO and Chair did the usual overview of the different parts of the business. They talked about growth, however the EBITDA forecast for the first halve of the present financial year is $6mil plus. In the PCP it was $7.2mil. So it is more than likely that EBITDA in the first halve is a less than last year. The forecast for the full year is >10% compared with last year. It seems the market is not convinced as the SP went down.

Thanks Forest
Sometimes the market has real opportunities. I am expecting > 25% return in next yr

[King1212]

[QUOTE=Paper Tiger;686558]A quick & dirty evaluation gives around $2.50 - $2.60 as fair value.

So a sub $2 price would be 'interesting'.[/QUOTE

thanks pt....will hold it....

[King1212]

$1.5m transfered.......

[boysy]

one has to imagine this is PIE Funds exciting stage left and the Australian ethical investment fund upping their stake in TIL.

[winner69]

one has to imagine this is PIE Funds exciting stage left and the Australian ethical investment fund upping their stake in TIL.

That's good isn't it

[boysy]

Let's wait for confirmation of who's buying first but yes it would appear as though one reluctant holder is out replaced by a more optimistic party

[King1212]

That's good isn't it

A lot of keen buyers at current price winner....

[winner69]

A lot of keen buyers at current price winner....

.......maybe making the willing sellers happy as

[trader_jackson]

A lot of keen buyers at current price winner....

The share price has fallen 25% in just under 2 months... I would be extremely worried if there weren't "keen buyers" despite this large, and very pronounced drop!

When's the big $2.50 take over offer coming from BWX?

[winner69]

The share price has fallen 25% in just under 2 months... I would be extremely worried if there weren't "keen buyers" despite this large, and very pronounced drop!

When's the big $2.50 take over offer coming from BWX?

would have been $3 but they took 50 cents off because of the candles

[trader_jackson]

would have been $3 but they took 50 cents off because of the candles

You might say the candle business is burning a hole in TIL's valuation... Imagine if it was a year ago? Would have had to have been $5, but then again everyone would have complained how undervalued $5 was, at the time of course cause $5 is a hell of a long way away from today's closing of $2.18, at least it finished in the green today.

[Balance]

You might say the candle business is burning a hole in TIL's valuation... Imagine if it was a year ago? Would have had to have been $5, but then again everyone would have complained how undervalued $5 was, at the time of course cause $5 is a hell of a long way away from today's closing of $2.18, at least it finished in the green today.

That is the unspoken beauty of the share market!

Circumstances and fortunes of a company change, and the market changes its viewon the value of a stock - everyday, let alone a year!

And where the view was extremely positive a year or so ago, giving the stock a valuation in the stratosphere - the market is now erring on the side of being neutral.

Neutral because if TIL disappoints in the next update, view will turn negative and that's when I believe you will see the stock with $1 in front of it.

[winner69]

TIL one of the stars of NZX this morning

Not too late to get in cheap before the big pay day

[Balance]

TIL one of the stars of NZX this morning

Not too late to get in cheap before the big pay day

Always right to buy at $2.10? :D

[trader_jackson]

TIL one of the stars of NZX this morning

Not too late to get in cheap before the big pay day

Yes - the generous $2.50 take over offer could be right around the corner.

Need some sort of acquisition announcement to push things up further.

[Balance]

Yes - the generous $2.50 take over offer could be right around the corner.

Need some sort of acquisition announcement to push things up further.

All joking apart, those of us with Opus (OIC) learnt the lesson NOT to read too much into negative comments which ignore the fundamental attractiveness of a company ripe to be acquired.

No warning whatsoever and the takeover at a huge premium was made. Too late to try and get set.

[trader_jackson]

All joking apart, those of us with Opus (OIC) learnt the lesson NOT to read too much into negative comments which ignore the fundamental attractiveness of a company ripe to be acquired.

Very true, the question is, how fundamentally attractive is TIL (really)? ... then there are others, say PEB that are the (potentially) the complete opposite to your statement ;)... so it would seem.

[Balance]

Very true, the question is, how fundamentally attractive is TIL (really)? ... then there are others, say PEB that are the (potentially) the complete opposite to your statement ;)... so it would seem.

PEB's time as a takeover target is over imo.

If it was going to be taken over, it would have happened in the last 2 years. No less than DD said PEB would have been taken over but for the GFC.

Well, the GFC is long past history.

[winner69]

Always right to buy at $2.10? :D



Love it ....so right

[winner69]

Very true, the question is, how fundamentally attractive is TIL (really)? ... then there are others, say PEB that are the (potentially) the complete opposite to your statement ;)... so it would seem.

I get the feeling that PEB has anything anybody really wants

[Balance]

I get the feeling that PEB has anything anybody really wants

PEB had huge 'unproven' potential in 2013 when it launched its $100m sales forecast with all the razzmatazz of a New Orleans jazz band before Mardi Gras. That is very attractive to a potential acquirer. 4 years on, the band is playing to an empty stadium except for a few diehard fans imo.

Meanwhile, TIL has showed that its products have generated excellent sales and returns - so has potential but increasingly, just like 42 Below and Charlies, that potential is probably best realised by another company.

Anyway, the market is a lovely place to assess & to try and second guess what companies could be up to.

[BlackPeter]

Ethical Investment fund increasing their share:

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/267131.pdf

[winner69]

Ethical Investment fund increasing their share:

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/267131.pdf

Suppose that's good

Good to see funds averaging down - wonder what their average is now. Most of the first 5% was quite a way north of 3 bucks

Shows commitment if nothing else

[TheHunter]

So what's the story with this stock team?

10% expected EBITDA growth looking attractive at current prices, directors have a fairly large share in the game, insto buying up. Ticking a few boxes of mine

[mondograss]

I hold, but I'm not looking to add more at this stage. I get the sense that it's at the bottom though barring any bad news\missed targets. But I also think it's not likely to go anywhere much for a while on current forecasts unless there's some further M&A activity (which could happen given debt levels) to add interest and energise the jaded. BAU will probably see things meander along like they have been with the Ethical Investment fund picking up some in the dips (though at nearly 10% I'm inclined to think they're not going to keep buying much longer). A bit out of date, but worth having a browse through if you haven't already: http://www.4-traders.com/TRILOGY-INTERNATIONAL-LTD-20705933/

[boysy]

has the worm finally turned, once PIE are out for good its due for a run sitting at a PE of 12.5x

[BlackPeter]

has the worm finally turned, once PIE are out for good its due for a run sitting at a PE of 12.5x

From a fundamental perspective I think they are undervalued. From a TA perspective - I guess you could claim higher highs and higher lows - but still well below any relevant MA. MA100 is at $1.42;

Still - the Royals still seem to use their products and the giving season is starting soon. My wife says that the rosehip oil is really good - and so I am setting on a good end of year turnover which should help the SP to move into the right direction.

[Balance]

has the worm finally turned, once PIE are out for good its due for a run sitting at a PE of 12.5x

Always right to buy at $2.10

[sb9]

Well, any thoughts of acquisition by BWX from across the ditch can be put to bed for now.

As they're currently in trading halt pending announcement re a potential transaction. And rumour mill on HC (source AFR) is that they're set to do a CR to fund an acquisition of a US naturals company for approx $100mln.

[Balance]

Well, any thoughts of acquisition by BWX from across the ditch can be put to bed for now.

As they're currently in trading halt pending announcement re a potential transaction. And rumour mill on HC (source AFR) is that they're set to do a CR to fund an acquisition of a US naturals company for approx $100mln.

https://www.fool.com.au/2017/10/18/why-bwx-ltd-shares-are-in-a-trading-halt-2/

Excellent news imo for TIL.

Confirms that BWX is actively seeking acquisitions to grow and this A$100m capital raising will give BWX more scope and size to take on an acquisition like TIL in the future.

[carrom74]

https://www.fool.com.au/2017/10/18/why-bwx-ltd-shares-are-in-a-trading-halt-2/

Excellent news imo for TIL.

Confirms that BWX is actively seeking acquisitions to grow and this A$100m capital raising will give BWX more scope and size to take on an acquisition like TIL in the future.

Is this the reason why there is a small spike in the share price or is the market expecting a take over of TIL? or is it too early to tell??

I still think PIE funds has a reduced offloading of TIL and the Aussie ethical fund is still buying TIL...

[Balance]

Is this the reason why there is a small spike in the share price or is the market expecting a take over of TIL? or is it too early to tell??

I still think PIE funds has a reduced offloading of TIL and the Aussie ethical fund is still buying TIL...

That's positive - from weak hands to stronger hands.

PIE Fund will finish selling one day.

[boysy]

Yep pie who helps inflate the SP have had the opositr effect when exiting. Any purchase by BWX will be earnings accredative as they are trading on a PE in the mid 40s.

[Everwood]

BWX acquires Andalou Natural, I was hoping it would acquire Trilogy!

[TheHunter]

BWX acquires Andalou Natural, I was hoping it would acquire Trilogy!

Didn't BWX's announcement state a US naturals company...? No surprises here.

[Leftfield]

Resignation of CFO (https://nzx.com/files/attachments/268087.pdf).....bit of a concern.

[winner69]

Resignation of CFO (https://nzx.com/files/attachments/268087.pdf).....bit of a concern.

No just off to broaden her horizons .....and make more dish

Career changes are good

[BlackPeter]

No just off to broaden her horizons .....and make more dish

Career changes are good

You are probably right ... and the fact that she is working out her notice period is a good sign. On the other hand - resigning after only 2 years on the job is a bit fast to build a solid career. Do this too often and recruiters will label her as "job-hopper".

[boysy]

Holders thoughts on the weakening exchange rate effecting TIL's results +/-. Clearly CS CO is the loser with a lower Kiwi vs USD but conversely Trilogy making majority of sales in AUD and other overseas currencies being winners ?

[peat]

You are probably right ... and the fact that she is working out her notice period is a good sign. On the other hand - resigning after only 2 years on the job is a bit fast to build a solid career. Do this too often and recruiters will label her as "job-hopper".

really not too sure about this BP
conversely I've heard that staying in a job too long is showing a lack of ambition, so I think the bottom line is that it is hard to draw any firm conclusions from this event.

[BlackPeter]

really not too sure about this BP
conversely I've heard that staying in a job too long is showing a lack of ambition, so I think the bottom line is that it is hard to draw any firm conclusions from this event.

I used to hire lots of highly qualified people during my career. Experience taught me that a job change every 5 to 6 years (plus / minus) seems to be sort of the optimum. Obviously - this does not need to come with changing the company.

This frequency demonstrates that the candidate does not run away when confronted with the first real problems any job position comes with, but it shows as well that the candidate is building their career, looking for bigger challenges and not procrastinating.

I'd see several 2 year stunts in a CV definitely as a problem (unless there is a real good reason for it) - these people have never really seen the long term outcome of their decisions and their employers obviously didn't value them enough to pay them what they think they are worth. Bad match and unsuitable for any senior position.

Look at it from the employer's position: why would you want to hire someone and show them the ropes who is going to leave again in 2 years time?

There is a good reason that CEO's have typically 5 year contracts ... that's enough time to see whether senior people are worth their salt and it is enough time for them to really add value (if they do).

Having said all this - I obviously have no specific knowledge of this case ... and particularly if it is a one off, there might be a good and innocent reason for the short tenure.

[carrom74]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/268441.pdf

Looks very appealing from a shareholder's perspective.Is QBID different from Daigou? or am i comparing apples and oranges?I see differentiation strategy being employed.

[boysy]

QBID http://www.qbid.com.au/ - this is the company distributing TIL online via cross boarder e commerce (CBEC) - with china only allowing products which have been tested on animals to be sold domestically it makes it very difficult for TIL to sell products via traditional domestic channels. Hence why they are focusing online in china.

Daigou are essentially small personal shoppers who come to AUS & NZ to buy TIL and send back home via informal channels (ie bypass border controls).

Either way sellers have dried right up 20k on offer up to 273. Once PIE's out I think it could be game on, lets just hope TIL are doing it the correct way in china....

[co0p]

A mention in the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/australian-ethical-invest-for-a-better-world/2017/nov/02/its-only-natural-how-good-brands-can-do-good-too

[boysy]

Good little spurt towards the end of the day will move higher once Pie have finished selling. Just goes to prove how illiquid the share is at the moment ...

[trader_jackson]

Good little spurt towards the end of the day will move higher once Pie have finished selling. Just goes to prove how illiquid the share is at the moment ...

Certainly does show how illiquid it is... could all fall down, again, tomorrow... hang on a minute, I thought the asx listing was meant to boost liquidity?

[Balance]

Always right to buy at $2.10, W69.



Always right to buy at $2.10 - Repeat after me. :D

[winner69]

Always right to buy at $2.10 - Repeat after me. :D

Always right to buy at $2.10

Sure was ...a couple of times

[TheHunter]

30 & 100 day average now broken...

[weasel]

A mention in the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/australian-ethical-invest-for-a-better-world/2017/nov/02/its-only-natural-how-good-brands-can-do-good-too

Paid content though, so basically it's an ad. But still, publicity is good!

[winner69]

Mid 240 seems to be strong resistance over last few months. Also struggling to break above 200MA

Seems this level is all the market is prepared to pay.

After that less than inspiring guidance not surprising. They better not sound a bit down in the dumps come half year announcement next week as that will send the shareprice tumbling to 210 again.

But as long as they say those magic words ‘skewed to second half of year’ punters will still live the dream for another six months.

Hope of the big takeover is still really the only way punters will get rich I reckon.

[boysy]

Decent volumes going through this morning, i take it the ethical investments PTY continue to buy up good to see support at the 245 level

[TheHunter]

Yep, technicals looking good - 30 and 100 MA now broken.

A bit of a break out coming?

[BlackPeter]

Yep, technicals looking good - 30 and 100 MA now broken.

A bit of a break out coming?

You forgot it went as well through the MA200. Should be now interesting as well for more conservative investors ... lets call it an uptrend - shall we?

[boysy]

Supprised we have not seen a SPH notice Question has to be how many more shares do PIE have to sell

[boysy]

Will be interesting to see if TIL will get sold into the open with 20k shares bid at yesterday’s closing price and a 10 c buy sell spread appearing (255/265)

[Balance]

Always right to buy at $2.10 - Repeat after me. :D

Repeat once more again :D

[winner69]

Repeat once more again :D

Yes good buying at 210 ......twice

Takeover coming soon you reckon

[Balance]

Supprised we have not seen a SPH notice Question has to be how many more shares do PIE have to sell

No more SSH from PIE - last one they filed on 10 Aug 2017 saw them dip below 5% to 3.4m shares.

They are out - notice the nice steady uptrend since the big crossings in the week ended 25 Sep 2017?

Always right to buy when the big boys are selling at $2.10 :D

[Balance]

Will be interesting to see if TIL will get sold into the open with 20k shares bid at yesterday’s closing price and a 10 c buy sell spread appearing (255/265)

Notice how the sp dipped towards this year's low - approaching interim results 26 May? And sure enough, a rather ho-hum results eventuated.

Annual results next week and the sp is tracking higher.

The market knows?

[Balance]

Yes good buying at 210 ......twice

Takeover coming soon you reckon

TIL - historical PER of 14 X & market cap of $185m

BWX - historical PER of 46.9 X and market cap of A$787m (NZ$870m)

The most compelling stats I have seen in a long time for a takeover (oops ... friendly merger) - classic high PER company needing acquisitions to maintain growth to satisfy the growth aspirations.

Be there or be square.

[boysy]

Good solid end to the day again once again been quite some time since a sustained rally of the SP

[Balance]

Good solid end to the day again once again been quite some time since a sustained rally of the SP

Always right to buy at $2.10 :D