TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[sb9]

Btw, anyone here know the exact release date of HY results (I know its sometime this month, may be later part?).

Here it is, the HY results to be announced next Wed 25th.

[clarky]

Looking forward to them, although the Christmas period is when the money will be made.

Misses just purchased a set of mini trilogy for travel for £21, so over $45 for a couple of tiny bottles... Definitely need the SP to go up!

[vin]

Climbing.. Good start.

[sb9]

1 buyer asking 70k+ @205, its well and truly starting to move now.

[Beagle]

Yep, I think we can say with a fair degree of confidence looking at the depth today the days of this bright shining star trading with a SP starting with a "1" are behind us. Well done to shareholders who bought in when this stock was cheap...I'm just happy to be at the party at all, better late than never to a good party eh :)

[NZSilver]

Its Humming! an still on a PE of 13ish.... Growth Growth Growth

[sb9]

Does not seem to stop today....decent volume too, loving it!!!

[Well Endowed]

$2.17 now, $500k through too. Good Times :)

[boysy]

What's the consensus around the results out next week, wonder how much the recent run is based on good results coming out shortly ?

[golden city]

looks like insider trading., someone knows something is happen next wendnesday

[boysy]

Up to 220 as we speak now is pie funds management upping shareholding above the previously reported 8.22 %

[golden city]

can't hold on my seat.., have decide to sell some to buy turkey for christmas haha

[Beagle]

Let the good times roll. PE looks very cheap for the growth involved and currency tailwind. Glad I have a ticket to ride.

[vin]

Madness! I love green.

[boysy]

So from the agm half yearly forecast of $24m and NPBT of $4.8m

Forecast breakdown from sept ago presentation 8.7m ecoya - trilogy 14.4m - Cs making up difference ?

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/221288.pdf

[boysy]

Interesting to note pie funds managements comments re comparing til to bwx on the asx. It appears as though they believe with any broker coverage til is only going one way

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/29696

[Snow Leopard]

Difficult one to put a 'precise' guess of even the near future for Trilogy.

So a worst case scenario:
Current value: $2.106
31-Mar-16 value: $2.223

A reasonable scenario:
Current value: $2.244
31-Mar-16 value: $2.376

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: obviously & DYOR

Reposting this so that:

Hay/ I can say that we have now reached what I considered the lower end of a reasonable current value range a couple of months back;

Bee/ I can express my hope that next Wednesday announcement will give me reason to revalue upwards;

Sea/ See how many copies appear. Like is boysy double posting or do I need to revisit my optician.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[blu3]

Sorry if the subject has already been talked about but I've just had a look at the FY 2015 report and noticed a nice increase in sales from the previous year for all their products in each country but for the Home Fragrance & Bodycare which decreased by 91.5% in the US. Is the reason known?

[boysy]

Double posting by accident my bad

[sb9]

Interesting to note pie funds managements comments re comparing til to bwx on the asx. It appears as though they believe with any broker coverage til is only going one way

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/29696

Definitely looks that way boysy going by the depth today.

[vin]

Boom. $2.31

[Beagle]

Boom. $2.31

Trump that with $2.34 :t_up:

[NZSilver]

2.35 - on the run, however still cheap as chips on valuation! prob one of the most undervalued stocks on the nzx + one of the highest growth prospects!

[boysy]

Depth is certainly drying up at this stage

[golden city]

could be just right time to exit now for short term

[boysy]

Results out on Wednesday one has to remember this will be the next catalyst

[sb9]

Results out on Wednesday one has to remember this will be the next catalyst
I'm expecting the results to be nothing but spectacular!!!

[boysy]

How much of spectacular has been built into the existing SP?

[golden city]

i think the sp has been built into the result.., hopefully i am wrong., but my feeling ..it is a result that will let people taking profit rather than up

[Everwood]

I'm expecting the results to be nothing but spectacular!!!

I’m looking forward to reading the result on Wednesday, but I think the stock price has got ahead of itself. I would like to be proven wrong, but this stock has got a good future with excellent future earnings potential.

[golden city]

it is the best money maker for me this year.., jump from 70 to 2.35..., best return so far

[golden city]

and luckily i had accumulate heaps.., so time to take some money back.., will keep heaps for long term still

[clarky]

I would expect the U.K. revenue numbers to be strong, and increasing for full year

[Jay]

May I suggest an awful lot of people (or a few with deep pockets) already know the numbers (well at least a fairly good educated guess) and hence the rise, or a few with deep pockets!
Technically it is overbought looking at the RSI

Disc: Not holding unfortunately, sold too soon, albeit at a small profit.

[bull....]

im out :) have to reduce the margin loan lol

[NZSilver]

Still plenty of value as long as numbers are showing growth that I am and others are expecting. Including pie funds. Could easily run into $3 area without much effort if all is looking rosy

[LAC]

Sold out my small holding as well, locked in some profits as I think its gone up too fast. Maybe will enter again in a month or 3:)

[sb9]

Good on ya for some of you who locked in profits, I'm holding for long term. Hoping for more surprise announcements tomorrow.

[Well Endowed]

me too sb9, happy for the price to consolidate/take a breather. With the Christmas retal period fast approaching, I can't see how their products won't be already flying off the shelves!

[sb9]

Expect some late buying in the last hour from those that were hanging on side line whole day waiting to pick up at lower price in time for the results out tomorrow morning before market opens.

[Beagle]

Good on ya for some of you who locked in profits, I'm holding for long term. Hoping for more surprise announcements tomorrow.

I just got on this racehorse so as tempting as it is to take a 15%+ profit for a five minute ride, (so too speak), I'm happy to see this play's out over time.

[muss1]

Although we have had a good run, the market has priced in the lower end of FY guidance in my opinion. If the upper end is hit or exceeded there is a long way to run. Unless you're in it for a quick buck it's too early for long termers to get out in my opinion. There's also potential that a higher multiple will be sustained, broker coverage initiated etc. all reasons to stay in

[Absolute144]

Although we have had a good run, the market has priced in the lower end of FY guidance in my opinion. If the upper end is hit or exceeded there is a long way to run. Unless you're in it for a quick buck it's too early for long termers to get out in my opinion. There's also potential that a higher multiple will be sustained, broker coverage initiated etc. all reasons to stay in


Good post. Agree wholeheartedly.

[NZSilver]

Yeh especially when it's going to be $2.73* at closing tomorrow.

(* = obviously complete guess, but this ticks a lot of boxes growth, priced low cf multiples/rest of market, uptrend, good product, growing earnings, profitable, cash flow +ve, under the radar from beokers/reports, only negative is slightly illiquid - which is good while the price goes up but not if people want to sell)

Long term and short term very good investment

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/274011

All I can say is SPECTACULAR.....:t_up:

[LAC]

Why would they not give the divi details in the same announcement?

[Well Endowed]

personally think there is potential further upside in those revenue figures with a strong christmas period. I Will be getting mother/sister & girlfriend gift packs for christmas!

[golden city]

no dividends

[muss1]

All pretty much as expected really. The upside will come from the conservatism they have built into their guidance due to the amount of unknowns. If they spend less on expansion than has been built into their numbers or revenue is beaten - watch out! I think due to the inherent unknowns in those predictions they have had to err on the side of caution. It will be an interesting 4 months until end of FY.

[noodles]

I see the result as above expectations (excluding CS).

3rd August they said
Revenue =$23 m
net profit before tax = $3.5 million

At the AGM they said:
Revenue =$24 m
net profit before tax =4.8 million

They have now delivered:
Revenue =24.2m,
net profit before tax = $4.9m.

The CS result is the one to watch for the full year. For me, this is a risk.

[bull....]

why no npat figures?

[Beagle]

A very warm welcome back Noodles. Thanks for your input. Its refreshing to be invested in a very high growth company that's profitable while doing it. Tough company to value so I won't try...just enjoy the growth ride and see what happens. Disc Modest position.

[Balance]

why no npat figures?

NPBT increasing by 320% reads more impressive than NPAT increasing by 226%.

Will revert to NPAT type comparison next year.

[sb9]

Glad to see you back noodles...

[Beagle]

A very quick and dirty attempt to put a current year PE on this one. EPS per accounts 5 cps on NPBT of $4.6m so at the mid point of the full year forecast 13 / 4.6 x 5 gives 14.13 cps for the full year.
So at $2.40 the company is on a current year PE of only 17. Seems very reasonable indeed considering the phenomenal growth rate.
Please note, I haven't considered the effective tax rate, carried forward losses if any, earn out provisions to the vendors on the CS acquisition...like I said just a quick and dirty attempt to get a handle on the rough current year PE.

[Joshuatree]

Welcome back noodles; have missed your solid ,objective, Investment bias free, spruik free ,analysis of stocks.

[percy]

I see the result as above expectations (excluding CS).

3rd August they said
Revenue =$23 m
net profit before tax = $3.5 million

At the AGM they said:
Revenue =$24 m
net profit before tax =4.8 million

They have now delivered:
Revenue =24.2m,
net profit before tax = $4.9m.

The CS result is the one to watch for the full year. For me, this is a risk.

Great having you post.
You have been very much missed.
Thanks to you and Lizard I brought into TIL.
TIL are certainly on track to keep growing.Sound business in Australasia providing the cashflow/profit for them to explore other markets.

[Beagle]

Welcome back noodles; have missed your solid ,objective, Investment bias free, spruik free ,analysis of stocks.

Makes you wonder who the good Samaritan is who works hard behind the scenes by e.mail talking to people encouraging them to come back doesn't it.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks thats the funniest thing I've heard for a while, taking the credit., credit among many methinks but mostly to noodles. Laughter is the best medicine ( besides a Lindauer Summer):t_up:
Anyways back on topic; i dithered/ got distracted more than once and missed my entry on this stock despite excellent advice from a mentor. Will watch for an opportunity if i should be so lucky.Good luck all.

[Beagle]

A gentleman with all your skills and you missed this one even with the excellent advice of a mentor ????? I wish you the very best of luck getting a better entry price...

[Joshuatree]

Yess i blew it , my badd , it was right under my nose.. Looking at too may stocks in too many sectors on two exchanges, Investing mainly but trading now too; but overall its worth it.

[Joshuatree]

Sorry to be so far off topic folks but i have to address the IRD threat/ misinformation. I have set up small Aus trading portfolio separate to my investment portfolio with a diff broker etc for that very reason. It has created a great relief for me not to worry about what classification my transactions are classified as and with my trading port i can take more risk, without worrying about my intent because its your intention when you buy a share which determines what you are.; its a win /win i reccomend it to anyone in the same situ. Trilogy i only look at from an investment point of view.I wear two hats short term Aus and long term investment.
Sailing very close to the wind Roger.Check out the true meanings of abyss and mate and gentleman.

[Snow Leopard]

Based on the paper work:

FY2016 EPS range $0.112 -> $0.135

Current value: $2.208
31-Mar-16 value: $2.295
25-Nov-16 value: $2.456

Will revise as info comes to light.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

People would be very well advised to seek independent professional advice regarding the structure of their trading and investment activities if they wish to separate them rather than relying on anyone's advice on here. Sorry folks, there's far more too it than simply intention as has been suggested but its well beyond the scope of this thread to get into that.

Moving on and getting back to the company, how do you come up with those values PT given the company is growing at such an amazing rate ?

[boysy]

When do we think a broker will start seriously looking at TIL as a genuine growth storey ?

[Joshuatree]

Sorry to be so far off topic folks but i have to address the IRD threat/ misinformation. I have set up small Aus trading portfolio separate to my investment portfolio with a diff broker etc for that very reason. It has created a great relief for me not to worry about what classification my transactions are classified as and with my trading port i can take more risk, without worrying about my intent because its your intention when you buy a share which determines what you are.; its a win /win i reccomend it to anyone in the same situ. Trilogy i only look at from an investment point of view.I wear two hats short term Aus and long term investment.
Sailing very close to the wind Roger.Check out the true meanings of abyss and mate and gentleman.

Have found "Tax Advice" thread on this subject, well worth a read.

[stoploss]

When do we think a broker will start seriously looking at TIL as a genuine growth storey ?

IMO , the longer they take to cover the stock the better it is .....
I started buying AWF @ .88 ... they started covering in a minor way around 2.70 from memory ...
The longer they are under the radar , the more chance you have to buy more .... surely things are going ok without the coverage ????

[muss1]

When do we think a broker will start seriously looking at TIL as a genuine growth storey ?

I have no inside info but my opinion is soon. Craigs released a note on them in July (not coverage) which outlined the business. I assume they did this because they may be initiating coverage in the next wee while. Just my opinion. Seems the market is happy pushing the SP up as it is. Though I'd rather it stays in the fair value band rather than overvalued. That range is very hard to judge at this stage though with likely conservative guidance!

[muss1]

When do we think a broker will start seriously looking at TIL as a genuine growth storey ?

I have no inside info but my opinion is soon. Craigs released a note on them in July (not coverage) which outlined the business. I assume they did this because they may be initiating coverage in the next wee while. Just my opinion. Seems the market is happy pushing the SP up as it is. Though I'd rather it stays in the fair value band rather than overvalued. That range is very hard to judge at this stage though with likely conservative guidance!

[Beagle]

Have found "Tax Advice" thread on this subject, well worth a read.

Interesting thread and Yes it is worth a read, I have added my thoughts. http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9660-Tax-advice

[Cricketfan]

Anyways back on topic; i dithered/ got distracted more than once and missed my entry on this stock despite excellent advice from a mentor. Will watch for an opportunity if i should be so lucky.Good luck all.

Just out of interest, you say you are looking at TIL as an investment rather than a trading point of view. Why would you not enter at this price if you think it's going to continue to grow?

[Snow Leopard]

Based on the paper work:

FY2016 EPS range $0.112 -> $0.135

Current value: $2.208
31-Mar-16 value: $2.295
25-Nov-16 value: $2.456

Will revise as info comes to light.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Revision 1 [after the errors in interest to be paid] so now we have:
FY16 EPS range $0.120 -> $0.143
Current value: $2.399
31-Mar-16 value: $2.489
25-Nov-16 value: $2.642


...Moving on and getting back to the company, how do you come up with those values PT given the company is growing at such an amazing rate ?

I am a very good guesser :D.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[clarky]

Sellers seem to have dried up, confidence is shining through...

[NZSilver]

I think we will see another profit upgrade.

[sb9]

I think we will see another profit upgrade.

I think so, guessing there'll be one late Feb after the holiday season is finished.

[golden city]

cav is next bargain..come to life

[percy]

Doing my community service, I thought it only fare others should be able to share the sheer pleasure and excitement of owning TIL shares,I therefore sold half my holding today.

[Joshuatree]

Congrats Percy ; thats a great place to be , zigging when others are zagging, on the way to free carrydom

[golden city]

here she go...on the way down from now..as it up too much

[sb9]

Bit of profit taking is expected after such a stellar run in the last few weeks, should be back up pretty soon.

[boysy]

Let's see how this ends the day plenty of buying support pushing the price back up at this stage

[Snow Leopard]

Let it slide.

I have some $$$ to spend but I want a good margin of safety.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Discs:
Own TIL.
Want to Own More TIL.
Would not buy the products though.

[Well Endowed]

Some decent turnover today ($600K), and the shareprice is creeping back. wouldn't be surprised to see a SSH issued in the next week or two from PIE or someone else topping up

[golden city]

til is in a down trend right now...better get in cav guys

[vin]

keeping an eye on this down trend.. closer to $2 and ill prob jump back in.. xD

[LAC]

Dipped my toes in today...will def jump in at $2:)

[minimoke]

keeping an eye on this down trend.. closer to $2 and ill prob jump back in.. xD
Mwahahaha. my cunning 2015 share investor comp plan is bearing fruit. Mwahaaha.

[BlackPeter]

til is in a down trend right now...better get in cav guys

"TIL in a down trend"? - interesting statement. How do you measure that? SP is ways above MA50 and MA200;

[golden city]

after a great run..there is always going to be down trend forva while...cant you see the price reflection

[golden city]

plus the disapointment of no dividends for the half....

[Balance]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11555226

Worth reading.

[Well Endowed]

Thanks Balance, and interestingly (apologies for being slightly off topic) all of Pie's largest holdings are held in asx companies(except TIL):

VTG, RHP, MNY, KME, AKG, EPD, MLA and TIL

[muss1]

Has anyone else noticed in the presentation this morning they are forecasting 12m NPBT? A subtle but meaningful change from 10-12m, or a simplification?

[LAC]

Was this an actual roadshow that investors could attend? When was the announcement for this? Would have loved to attend (depending where it's held). Anyone got some info?

[Balance]

Was this an actual roadshow that investors could attend? When was the announcement for this? Would have loved to attend (depending where it's held). Anyone got some info?

TIL and other NZ companies (typically when their sp are soaring) are invited to present to brokers, their clients and/or various seminars. These days, they have to disclose the presentations to the market as well before they present so there is no breach of continuous disclosures. Just like addresses to AGMs and EGMs.

[LAC]

TIL and other NZ companies (typically when their sp are soaring) are invited to present to brokers, their clients and/or various seminars. These days, they have to disclose the presentations to the market as well before they present so there is no breach of continuous disclosures. Just like addresses to AGMs and EGMs.

Thanks Balance:)

[boysy]

Nice end to the week, was impressed on a recent trip to Melbourne to see ecoya displayed quite prominently on the ground floor of David Jones. One has to think growth in all brands can only point to a brighter future ahead for TIL.

[Well Endowed]

Interesting exposure this, especially as other companies such as L'Oreal were in attendance. I still think end game leads to a takeover of Trilogy.

complementary addition to the bodyshop's (owned by L'Oreal) offerings, perhaps as a higher end product line? - all just my speculation of course :)


http://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/15/12/p6053091/new-zealand-natural-skincare-brand-trilogy-recognized-by-iucn-for-leade

[boysy]

Good day ending up over 6% at $2.45 not a lot of volume on offer

[Well Endowed]

$2.55 and, $800k turnover through this morning, looks like a solid end to the week

[percy]

I brought back this morning at $2.54, most of the TIL I sold on 26/11/2015 at $2.454.

[Well Endowed]

the full 800k worth percy?! :p

interesting the HY report released today. Reading through the breakdown the following comment is made
"Rosehip oil remains a key growth engine for Trilogy,
with the brand now selling one bottle every 22 seconds."

you extrapolate that out to get 1,433,455 bottles sold per calendar year, which at a minimum retail price of $23.90 NZD per bottle (larger sizes sell for $35-$39) gives turnover of $34million just in Rosehip oil!

[kiora]

the full 800k worth percy?! :p

interesting the HY report released today. Reading through the breakdown the following comment is made
"Rosehip oil remains a key growth engine for Trilogy,
with the brand now selling one bottle every 22 seconds."

you extrapolate that out to get 1,433,455 bottles sold per calendar year, which at a minimum retail price of $23.90 NZD per bottle (larger sizes sell for $35-$39) gives turnover of $34million just in Rosehip oil!

It comes up smelling of roses whichever way you look at it :)

[boysy]

Plenty of buying action at the levels some decent volume and value as well

[boysy]

Board gone quiet have holders left the building. Interesting to not a buyer of 50k shares is sitting at $2.65 but no bites yet today. Would imagine Christmas trading should result in a good trading update in the new year

[QOH]

A couple of hours ago I was in Farmers, and in the short time I was looking at Beauty products, I saw two different lots of people buying Trilogy products. It was interesting because you could tell they were shoppers who knew what they wanted, didn't look at prices etc.

[boysy]

Seems to be plenty of interest at these prices wonder if we will have a change in shareholding notice in the next few days

[boysy]

Still trucking upwards at $2.88 (+11 cents) in early trades

[muss1]

What is everyone expecting when it comes to earnings this FY? Guidance for 10-12m NPBT. Last presentation may have hinted at 12m. How much potential upside do we see to this? A lot of big trades going through in the high 2s. Someone sees some decent value at these levels.

[percy]

What is everyone expecting when it comes to earnings this FY? Guidance for 10-12m NPBT. Last presentation may have hinted at 12m. How much potential upside do we see to this? A lot of big trades going through in the high 2s. Someone sees some decent value at these levels.

I think it is safe to go with the $12mil.That is at the top end of guidance.
Any increase on that, and they will have to announce an upgrade.
I am hopeful of an upgrade.!!

[boysy]

I think ecoya should make a significant contribution over the Xmas period. Clearly they wouldn't give a trading update until after the tills have rung through Xmas. Clearly a growth storey and no broker analysis at present.

[NZSilver]

Well If it helps I spent $236.30 buying directly of their website, over 80% of my Xmas gifts in one fell swoop!

[Southern_Belle]

Was in Riccarton Mall last night and noticed shelves with big gaps in Ecoya displays, it would appear stock moving quickly. Hope those same shelves are restocked overnight and there is plenty in their distribution centres. As I recent (very happy) shareholder, I am watching this closely.

[LAC]

My sister came over for Xmas from Sydney, asked me i heard of this brand of candles she bought as gifts...opened the bag and they were Ecoya....I just laughed;)

[vin]

why oh why did I sell out at $2.35 with overall 35% gain :( fuuuuuuu

[boysy]

Still can buy back in at these levels Vin. Will be interesting to hear how trading 9ver Xmas has gone particularly for ecoya

[Balance]

why oh why did I sell out at $2.35 with overall 35% gain :( fuuuuuuu

$10.00 stock - why give away $7.65? :(

[vin]

I know, heart break. Stuck to my guns though I made a good profit. Will keep an eye on it.

[minimoke]

My sister came over for Xmas from Sydney, asked me i heard of this brand of candles she bought as gifts...opened the bag and they were Ecoya....I just laughed;)And the question now is "what will people be buying in next years Christmas fad?

Looks like Sarah Gibbs and the Independent Trust Company have already worked that one out.

[Cricketfan]

And the question now is "what will people be buying in next years Christmas fad?

Looks like Sarah Gibbs and the Independent Trust Company have already worked that one out.

If that was the reason for selling, wouldn't it make more sense to wait till early next year when the share price (hopefully) takes this Christmas into account?

[minimoke]

If that was the reason for selling, wouldn't it make more sense to wait till early next year when the share price (hopefully) takes this Christmas into account?Unless Christmas sales is already priced in and the seller prefers to lock in a known profit at $2.20.

[boysy]

While ecoya do the bulk of their trade over christmas it's clearly the development of trilogy and goodness which along with ecoya to a lesser extent will drive profitability going forward. The next question is who has been buying millions of shares of late ?

[Leftfield]

$10.00 stock - why give away $7.65? :(

Smacks of ramping? What's the basis of your valuation? Are you holding this stock?

[nextbigthing]

$10.00 stock - why give away $7.65? :(

Balance,

Like Left Field, I'd also be interested to see your valuation, not to try and pick holes in it, rather to learn and see why you are so keen on the stock, how you arrive at your valuation and what methods others use.

I know you're big on management/directors of a company and especially them holding true to their promises. I find this interesting as obviously these guys are also behind MOA - what have they promised shareholders there versus what has been delivered?

Sure growth is amazing, but as someone else pointed out, what about when the fad is over, it's a fiercely competitive sector.

Cheers, NBT

[golden city]

My valuation is 2.65 it is a bit ahead of it self at present

[golden city]

Still insist happy sold out at some point it will correct itself

[golden city]

I rather holding thl with fat dividends at cheaper prices

[muss1]

Golden city, what EPS have you assumed? I judged whether to top up a while ago based on the lower end of guidance (approx 11cps). That is conservative for buying. However, most expect the upper end of guidance to be hit (approx 13.5cps). That is not to mention the upside above that this FY which I think is quite likely. At 2.88, a forward PE (3 months from end of FY) of around 21-26. For a company that is currently growing at quite a rate that is very reasonable.

I think there is a lot more room for the SP to move before it gets ahead of itself. It may take a breather and charge up for another run as history tells us. We were cheaply valued a couple of months ago, we are moving through fair value, and I bet we will keep pushing through once people get greedy. That's not even accounting for the likely upside or the next few years of growth. Any traction overseas and boom. Its a very brave sell with a lot of upside potential.

[golden city]

I based on eps at 13.3c valuation pe 20

[golden city]

Valuation certainly will be over 3 but next year end. Not that fast moving

[golden city]

There is also risk with full borrowing of the acquisition. If anything goes wrong it will be big shot

[Leftfield]

My valuation is 2.65 it is a bit ahead of it self at present

Thanks for sharing GC. Like you I have held TIL, but have now sold.

[noodles]

Golden city, what EPS have you assumed? I judged whether to top up a while ago based on the lower end of guidance (approx 11cps). That is conservative for buying. However, most expect the upper end of guidance to be hit (approx 13.5cps). That is not to mention the upside above that this FY which I think is quite likely. At 2.88, a forward PE (3 months from end of FY) of around 21-26. For a company that is currently growing at quite a rate that is very reasonable.

I think there is a lot more room for the SP to move before it gets ahead of itself. It may take a breather and charge up for another run as history tells us. We were cheaply valued a couple of months ago, we are moving through fair value, and I bet we will keep pushing through once people get greedy. That's not even accounting for the likely upside or the next few years of growth. Any traction overseas and boom. Its a very brave sell with a lot of upside potential.
Muss,
A couple of points regarding earnings:
1. The recent presentation highlights that FY16 earnings are at the top end of guidance. https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/274776
2. FY16 earnings include just half a year of CS company earnings
3. piefunds estimates FY17 eps=18c. This was before the recent presentation referred to in point.1 and does not include any benefits from CS company doing the distribution for Trilogy

I'm looking forward to Trilogy becoming a "fad" in Asia, UK, and USA where they already have beachheads.

Cheers,
noodles

[golden city]

that is all base on tomorrow., I am talking today.., at present it is a bit over ahead of my target ..so ...at present price it is not for me to hold any longer.., today founder selling confirmed my point.., it is a lot of good companies out there....,as investor we should stay where the big money is....., we have eaten the big slice of til in the last two months..., left over always carrying more risk

[golden city]

first year of acquisition and merger always carrying unexpected integration costs

[clarky]

There is still massive overseas growth to be had, the brands are households names in NZ, but in other (larger) markets they are only in their infancy, so here's hoping that they can continue to grow them in these large markets which will ensure continued growth.

Also CS can hopefully add to the bottom line consistently and help with distribution.

[boysy]

Agree Clark thunk til is more than a one trick pony you would imagine through cs company which provides goods to hundreds or retailers sales of the products within nz let alone the rest of the world should grow strongly.

[vin]

that is all base on tomorrow., I am talking today.., at present it is a bit over ahead of my target ..so ...at present price it is not for me to hold any longer.., today founder selling confirmed my point.., it is a lot of good companies out there....,as investor we should stay where the big money is....., we have eaten the big slice of til in the last two months..., left over always carrying more risk

Agreed, makes me feel better about my decision! Gotta stick to the game plan.

[noodles]

Agreed, makes me feel better about my decision! Gotta stick to the game plan.

Your game plan is to sell winners?

My biggest trading mistakes have been to sell my winners. It is hard to fight the impulse to take a profit. If you must, take partial profits or put in a trailing stop-loss. Aim for 10-baggers, not 1-baggers.

Best of luck.

[muss1]

Muss,
A couple of points regarding earnings:
1. The recent presentation highlights that FY16 earnings are at the top end of guidance. https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/274776
2. FY16 earnings include just half a year of CS company earnings
3. piefunds estimates FY17 eps=18c. This was before the recent presentation referred to in point.1 and does not include any benefits from CS company doing the distribution for Trilogy

I'm looking forward to Trilogy becoming a "fad" in Asia, UK, and USA where they already have beachheads.

Cheers,
noodles

Thanks noodles. I agree with your points. I'm looking forward to the next year or so as a holder. Especially the overseas numbers. CS acquisition adds a nice bit of padding to the number too.

GC, a founder selling is not a big deal. They appear to have only sold some. Remember their investment is completely different to ours. They've been in since day one and have made so much money it would be silly not to take some profits along the way. Remember they've already made the decision to sell down when trilogy was bought out. As an investor who bought in during its listed trilogy life, I am looking for the next stage of growth.

[golden city]

it is a goo company cant argue.., but with trading wise..., I am picking at this level.., lots shareholder from early days will at some point taking profit too..., with the liquidity of the stock .., certainly carry risk..

[boysy]

my parent tried to buy ecoya at red current sylvia park yesterday they were sold out of everything hope this trend continued in other locations round the country

[winner69]

Doing a DCF for Trilogy but somewhat confused abut revenue guidance for F16

Nov 25th they said ....the company expects revenue for the year to 31 March 2016 to more than double to between $75m and $79m.

Earlier they had said this .....For the year to 31 March 2016, including the impact of the CS Company acquisition, Trilogy expects revenue to rise 104% to $75 million from $36.6 million ...

About CS Company they said .... acquired on 19 August 2015, is expected to contribute an additional $5m million to group revenue for the half year to 30 September 2015 .......for he second half, CS Company is expected to contribute approximately $22 million revenue to the group.

OK this implies CS revenue F16 to be ~$27m with Trilogy to be $48m (The $75m)

What puzzles me is that H1 Trilogy was $24m which implies H2 guidance is $24m as well. But isn't the Trilogy business quite seasonal? And expecting H2 to be a lot higher than H1

Using the $79m makes Trilogy H2 look better but not in line with hype and expectations.

Has a bearing on what growth rates to use in the DCF and as we know that is a ey driver of value.

Have I got it all wrong and totally confused?

[kiora]

Doing a DCF for Trilogy but somewhat confused abut revenue guidance for F16

Nov 25th they said ....the company expects revenue for the year to 31 March 2016 to more than double to between $75m and $79m.

Earlier they had said this .....For the year to 31 March 2016, including the impact of the CS Company acquisition, Trilogy expects revenue to rise 104% to $75 million from $36.6 million ...

About CS Company they said .... acquired on 19 August 2015, is expected to contribute an additional $5m million to group revenue for the half year to 30 September 2015 .......for he second half, CS Company is expected to contribute approximately $22 million revenue to the group.

OK this implies CS revenue F16 to be ~$27m with Trilogy to be $48m (The $75m)

What puzzles me is that H1 Trilogy was $24m which implies H2 guidance is $24m as well. But isn't the Trilogy business quite seasonal? And expecting H2 to be a lot higher than H1

Using the $79m makes Trilogy H2 look better but not in line with hype and expectations.

Has a bearing on what growth rates to use in the DCF and as we know that is a ey driver of value.

Have I got it all wrong and totally confused?

No not totally confused.It is reasonable to expect them under promising and over delivering

[winner69]

No not totally confused.It is reasonable to expect them under promising and over delivering

Thanks kiora

So if past Trilogy seasonality applies FY16 group revenues will be about $85m - not the $75m-$79m guidance

[clarky]

Be keen to see how the DCF comes out winner69

[boysy]

Clearly the share remains rather iliquiud with any one buyin or selling shares moving it one way or the other. Good to see it at 2.85 I recon they had a cracker of a Xmas if anicdotal evidence of ecoya sales is anything to go by.

[percy]

Clearly the share remains rather iliquiud with any one buyin or selling shares moving it one way or the other. Good to see it at 2.85 I recon they had a cracker of a Xmas if anicdotal evidence of ecoya sales is anything to go by.

But wait......there's more.......Valentine's Day coming up on 14th February..
But wait......there's even more.....Mother's day on 8th of May.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[boysy]

Trading update would be good right about now

[Yoda]

My wife took me into a shop the other day to proudly show me the Trilogy stand. Good to see it next to Revlon, and in the same colours and looked like it was the same display. Revlon have dropped ? 30 % on NYSE in the last 9 months, $40 down to $25. may be people moving to Trilogy...?

[kizame]

My wife took me into a shop the other day to proudly show me the Trilogy stand. Good to see it next to Revlon, and in the same colours and looked like it was the same display. Revlon have dropped ? 30 % on NYSE in the last 9 months, $40 down to $25. may be people moving to Trilogy...?

Whats even better is that your wife shows enough interest to take you, and show you.

[Well Endowed]

the shareprice is holding up remarkably well given overall weakness in global markets. Hopefully management release a trading update soon. I wouldn't be surprised to see a change significant holder announcement too.

[sb9]

the shareprice is holding up remarkably well given overall weakness in global markets. Hopefully management release a trading update soon. I wouldn't be surprised to see a change significant holder announcement too.

It just needs another small piece of good news and it'll fly through to $3 mark.

[boysy]

Someone seems to be buying on any weakness is it pie funds one has to ask. The so has been rock solid so far on down days tho with such a lack of liquidity either buying of selling a decent parcel will move the so significantly.

[sb9]

3 buyers bidding for a total of 43k @2.85 and not much on offer on sell side at that level, interesting to see how the day closes.

[boysy]

Yes as soon as any buying presure comes on someone's willing to bid it back up. Someone is happy to continue to accumulate st the current prices.

[sb9]

Strong open for the day, did we miss something?

[sb9]

Gosh something's up with this one $3.01 now, someone knows something perhaps....

[vin]

So gutted I sold at $2.35 haha. Ah well

[boysy]

Buying in anticipation of a trading update perhaps ? Wonder when brokers will start to cover this storey

[Well Endowed]

hit $3.03, up 17c today. The offer depth has fallen away. can't be far off an update..!

[boysy]

Wonder if we will get a speeding ticket the 6:1 buy sell ratio looks telling at this stage.

[Southern_Belle]

Happy to hold.....crossed my mind to sell with all the noise and doom in the market at the moment. Reason I bought them still remain....great product great management. They also have the benefit of the exchange rate changes as they export a lot of their products.

[horus1]

A recommendation in Fat profits moved it I think

[sb9]

A recommendation in Fat profits moved it I think

You mean Fat Prophets?

[Well Endowed]

Does anyone have access/ summary of key levels or recommendations?

[muss1]

It's really just following its recent trading patterns. A leg up, cool off, leg up, cool off.

Interesting comment re FP. I know TIL has been on their books for a while. I'm not a subscriber though so no idea whether they have released anything new

[HeartOfGold]

A recommendation in Fat profits moved it I think

They also had a roadshow of sorts in Australia today which likely contributed to the strong buying pressure.

[percy]

They also had a roadshow of sorts in Australia today which likely contributed to the strong buying pressure.

Welcome to Sharetrader,and thank you for your post.

[QOH]

This is a link to the Trilogy Presentation in Australia

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/228900.pdf

[boysy]

Very detailed presentation it clearly indicates the growth of the business will be driven through Australia where both trilogy and ecoya are not in the top 3 of each target segment

[percy]

Since 12th November 2015 and 27th January,2016 Pie Funds have brought 657,682 shares, between $1.65 and $2.925, taking their holding to 9.28% or 5,729,577 shares.
I would think they are "well positioned."

[muss1]

Wow I'm surprised they have bought all the way up to 290. I assume the off market trades of 75,000 shares has been them.

They must see some significant upside even from these levels. Could be a good result coming up. Exciting times

[misterx]

is this still good time to enter?

[percy]

is this still good time to enter?

Misterx,Welcome to sharetrader.
You must be careful asking that sort of question.
Share Trader is a forum where we exchange ideas, views,information and research.
Some posters are very clever and you can learn a lot from them.
Others, who may seem to know what they are talking about,don't,so should you follow them, you will loose your shirt.
So if you like what you read on ShareTrader take that as a starting point for you research.
On www.nzx,com you can type in TIL and read their announcements.Today's presentation is a good starting point.
BUT you must do your own research, and make up your own mind whether this is a good time to enter,or not.

[misterx]

sorry Percy for asking inappropriate question and thank you for your suggestions.

[muss1]

Welcome misterx. Percy's advice is good and should always be adhered to - this is a place for ideas but you should always be able to back things up with your own research and thoughts.

As for your question, there is no right answer. I personally won't be buying at this level, but I have been a holder for a while. Having said that I don't plan on selling because I believe there is more growth to come. Pie funds bought lots yesterday (and already hold lots). It all depends on your situation.

I'd start by looking at where you think the company's growth is going to come from. Then learning a bit about the P/E ratio which is a good starting point for working out whether a company is good value at the current share price.

[percy]

sorry Percy for asking inappropriate question and thank you for your suggestions.

The reason for my post.
About 4 years ago a guy took his funds,which were invested in bonds and shares, away from his broker, and decided to invest them himself.
After reading Share Trader he decided he knew what he was doing.!
Big mistake.I don't know what % of his funds he lost.May have been 25% to 35% of his capital.He has since learnt a lot,but has still not recovered his losses.So on $100,000 invested he would have $70,000 today,while most Sharetraders would have doubled the $100,000 and have $200,000 today.ie 185% more.Big difference,and if you add another zero to the funds invested you can see I am taling very serious money.
So back to helping you.I use the following "free" sites;
www.stocknessmonster.com for my watch list.
www.4-traders.com for projections.Does not cover every company.Enter the company code ,then go to financials.

[LAC]

www.stocknessmoster.com[/url] for my watch list. - stocknessmoNster.com :)


Yeah follow W Buffets 1st and 2nd Rules:)

[percy]

Yeah follow W Buffets 1st and 2nd Rules:)

Thank you,
have corrected.!!

[BlackPeter]

is this still good time to enter?

Good advise from percy and others ... and I guess I don't know either what is going to happen with TIL from here. Just some observations: The people running TIL have a history of creating start-ups and selling them afterwards, Sometimes they are successful (42 below), sometimes not so (MOA). No matter into which category you put TIL ... after a five fold share price rise the remaining fizz might be limited.

Just one other observation: the future growth potential of shares often seems to be negatively correlated with the noise on various sharetrader threads. People start making noises after a significant rise ... and at that stage the cream is obviously already gone.

If you think that this is a good industry (and actually - it might be), than I would make myself a list with the say 5 most important players in this industry (the latest TIL presentation even helps you to identify them) - and compare their fundamentals and their growth potential. If you than still think that TIL is the best player in the room (I don't, well - not at the current SP), than by all means - buy them, but remember to diversify.

[muss1]

Good comments Black Peter. However, I don't see the owners wanting to sell for a while yet. They are at the start of what could be a very exciting overseas expansion. If they are even mildly successful in the UK, US or Asia then the upside from here is enormous. Pie funds keep buying, and I imagine they have have a few conversations with the company and like what they hear.

[stoploss]

Good comments Black Peter. However, I don't see the owners wanting to sell for a while yet. They are at the start of what could be a very exciting overseas expansion. If they are even mildly successful in the UK, US or Asia then the upside from here is enormous. Pie funds keep buying, and I imagine they have have a few conversations with the company and like what they hear.

Pumpkin Patch had an exciting overseas expansion , it's not always a good thing :)

[kizame]

Pumpkin Patch had an exciting overseas expansion , it's not always a good thing :)

Pumpkin patch had high overheads with stores,trilogy doesn't need its own stores.
+ the need to come up with new seasonal fashion for kids all the time.

[muss1]

Pumpkin Patch had an exciting overseas expansion , it's not always a good thing :)

There are always risks so of course it could end in tears. Still significant room for growth in Australia too. Taking the cautious "what if" approach is necessary, but without accepting some risk you don't stand to gain anything.

As I said I'm not a buyer at this level, but I am still bullish about the future prospects

[sb9]

I think we're in for an interesting finish for the week and month.

[boysy]

Pie funds clearly see further upside in the Sp at present. Nice steady climb of late just hope at some stage a trading update comes out to consolidate recent gains.

[percy]

Pie funds clearly see further upside in the Sp at present. Nice steady climb of late just hope at some stage a trading update comes out to consolidate recent gains.

The figures used in the latest presentation are at the top end of previous guidance.
So any update should be because they are ahead of guidance.
I would guess Pie Funds are expecting them to be ahead of guidance.I think Pie Funds record of being "right on the money" with TIL will continue,so lets look forward to the next update.!!!

[winner69]

The figures used in the latest presentation are at the top end of previous guidance.
So any update should be because they are ahead of guidance.
I would guess Pie Funds are expecting them to be ahead of guidance.I think Pie Funds record of being "right on the money" with TIL will continue,so lets look forward to the next update.!!!

AS I said over Christmas their full year guidance doesn't make much sense anyway. If they only achieve that then holiday sales results nust have been pretty bad ... and not tying up with the rhetoric and hype

[trader_jackson]

I am just going to throw this out there, is TIL the next A2M, (preceded by XRO and PEB)

What do these companies have in common:
- Rapid share price rises, followed by generally large collapses (although A2M is currently holding up better than the other two)
- Share price driven by hype and ever increasing expectations, which ultimately can't be meet (as reflected by a share price drop)
- All have fantastic, quality products and have been around 'for years'

Obviously A2M is in the dairy industry, TIL is more in retail/manufacturing, PEB is in Biotechnology and XRO is in technology (with the last two not yet making a profit), but they have all shared similar 'hype' stories, that ultimately have 'collapsed' to a more 'realistic' level.

I hope TIL (along with A2M, PEB and XRO) does well, always love a good kiwi story, but just be careful.

[muss1]

I am just going to throw this out there, is TIL the next A2M, (preceded by XRO and PEB)

What do these companies have in common:
- Rapid share price rises, followed by generally large collapses (although A2M is currently holding up better than the other two)
- Share price driven by hype and ever increasing expectations, which ultimately can't be meet (as reflected by a share price drop)
- All have fantastic, quality products and have been around 'for years'

Obviously A2M is in the dairy industry, TIL is more in retail/manufacturing, PEB is in Biotechnology and XRO is in technology (with the last two not yet making a profit), but they have all shared similar 'hype' stories, that ultimately have 'collapsed' to a more 'realistic' level.

I hope TIL (along with A2M, PEB and XRO) does well, always love a good kiwi story, but just be careful.

I think the short answer is no. Currently, TIL has a forward PE of about 20 (assuming upper end of guidance). The other companies you named can't even be valued using a PE as they aren't profitable/profitable enough.

TIL has cash flow. It even pays a dividend. So I think we are safe from any comparisons there. However, if growth stalls it'll fall, but it doesn't have too far to fall compared to the others due to its real cash in the door business

[winner69]

A2M, XRO, TIL and I suppose PEB are all special t_j and have some sort of 'unique. proposition behind them

XRO is beautiful accounting, TIL makes royalty beautiful, A2M helps make babies healthy and beautiful .... and I did day suppose PEB does something special

As such don't they deserve that hype and be valued as such

Believe the stories t-j, you believe the PEB story and I would throw it out there the A2M, XRO and TIL stories are more credible with good future prospects

[trader_jackson]

I think the short answer is no. Currently, TIL has a forward PE of about 20 (assuming upper end of guidance). The other companies you named can't even be valued using a PE as they aren't profitable/profitable enough.

TIL has cash flow. It even pays a dividend. So I think we are safe from any comparisons there. However, if growth stalls it'll fall, but it doesn't have too far to fall compared to the others due to its real cash in the door business

True, but TIL also has far more non current liabilities than A2M, PEB and XRO, coupled with far less cash. Valuing by PE is one of several methods you could use to evaluate a share, for example Valuing by NTA makes TIL (4.6% of share price) look alot less compelling than XRO (10.1%), PEB (22.2%) and similar to A2M (3.2%) .

As they are already paying a dividend and don't have alot of cash on hand, I don't really know how they (and everyone else) expects them to keep up incredibly impressive sales growth

[trader_jackson]

A2M, XRO, TIL and I suppose PEB are all special t_j and have some sort of 'unique. proposition behind them

XRO is beautiful accounting, TIL makes royalty beautiful, A2M helps make babies healthy and beautiful .... and I did day suppose PEB does something special

As such don't they deserve that hype and be valued as such

Believe the stories t-j, you believe the PEB story and I would throw it out there the A2M, XRO and TIL stories are more credible with good future prospects

I would agree they are credible, and would even go as far as to say TIL is a 'safer bet'... but I am not sure if they (A2M, XRO and TIL) are more credible than PEB, as A2M, XRO and TIL have commercialized their products alot earlier than PEB, so they maybe more "credible" right now, but overtime potentially not... However, I would point out (to myself) that 'time is ticking' ... this year could be the year of PEB after all ;) (but lets not turn this into another PEB thread...!)

[Cricketfan]

I hope TIL (along with A2M, PEB and XRO) does well, always love a good kiwi story, but just be careful.

My concern with TIL is that like Pumpkin Patch and Moa, it's a consumer brand whose popularity may be short-lived. At least those other companies offer something with a tangible difference and are more difficult for a competitor to replicate so if they did take off, customers are less likely to switch. But home fragrances and beauty products? Dunno.

[trader_jackson]

My concern with TIL is that like Pumpkin Patch and Moa, it's a consumer brand whose popularity may be short-lived. At least those other companies offer something with a tangible difference and are more difficult for a competitor to replicate so if they did take off, customers are less likely to switch. But home fragrances and beauty products? Dunno.

Good point, "one day it's in, the next, it's out"

[muss1]

True, but TIL also has far more non current liabilities than A2M, PEB and XRO, coupled with far less cash. Valuing by PE is one of several methods you could use to evaluate a share, for example Valuing by NTA makes TIL (4.6% of share price) look alot less compelling than XRO (10.1%), PEB (22.2%) and similar to A2M (3.2%) .

As they are already paying a dividend and don't have alot of cash on hand, I don't really know how they (and everyone else) expects them to keep up incredibly impressive sales growth

Call me old fashioned, but cash in the door wins hands down in my opinion.

TIL are funding their sales growth with that cash. They have stated that earnings will be subdued (but still double!) due to the extra money spent on pursuing overseas growth.

Yes - at any moment they could go out of favour. I think it's a bit to early in the phase for that, but it's a valid concern. Other valid concerns are XRO may not ever make any money, PEBs technology becomes obsolete before they make money, and a2 cows prove dangerous to human health.

I don't believe any of those things, I'm just saying nothing comes without risk. Especially when comparing 4 completely different companies

[NZSilver]

Looking at it very basically Til and a2m profitable, xro and peb both haemorrhaging cash. But comparing these 4 companies is not relevant as completely different industries/products/structures/growth/risks etc. From previous record I believe TIL has a robust growth path and the SP will move accordingly (with fluctuations as it is a publicly listed company after all)

[BlackPeter]

I think TJ has a good point here ... and how do they say - "what goes up, must come down". Agree however with some of the other posters that PEB, XRO and ATM might not be the best comparison for this company.

Pumpkin Patch, I think would be a better company to compare them with. Consumables - and a product range people are happy to pay an extra dollar for just because it is in fashion.

If neighbours kids wear these great clothes, than our grandchildren need to wear them as well ... If the neighbours wife smells like roses ... well, you get the idea.

On the other hand (like Pumpkin Patch): no (or negligible) moat - i.e. the cost for competitors to get into this space are small (and actually many are already in there anyway); As Pumpkin Patch - they seemed to have found a temporary market niche in little NZ - and think now that the wide world out there is as empty and easy to conquer as NZ is.

I reckon the international expansion is likely to kill them ... and rather earlier than later. Zillions of successful fragrance companies out there - including many well established brands. Just didn't bother so far to take NZ.

So - not sure, how far up the rocket will shoot ... will they be still in fashion around next Christmas? However - I am sure, they won't stay in the stratosphere for ever. Sure, the rocket might still get a bit higher, but better watch the flight path and sell out before the rocket starts its descent. Once on the way down it might be difficult to find enough willing buyers.

Discl: not holding;

[winner69]

Good point, "one day it's in, the next, it's out"

Kate Middleton, Duchess of Cambridge, disclosed that on a recent visit to the Hebrides she came across a pine extract that does wonders for her skin. Kate was heard to say 'out with the roséhip and in with the pine and my skin feels so good'

(Made up so don't ask for the link to this news - but highlights how fragile this market is)

[muss1]

Good comments BP. I agree that trilogy going out of fashion or not succeeding overseas are the two biggest risks.

They have done well in Australia, and are continuing to gain market share. They've got some big names raving about them overseas like Kate Middleton. That is pretty heavy hitting.

I also don't necessarily subscribe to the what goes up must come down theory (with reference specifically to the SP- not the company). With hype this is true, but TIL is trading on a forward PE of 20 which is not particularly inflated given its growth

[Cricketfan]

They've got some big names raving about them overseas like Kate Middleton. That is pretty heavy hitting.


TIL will be fine as long as these big names don't change their minds and find something else to rave about.....

[BlackPeter]

Good comments BP. I agree that trilogy going out of fashion or not succeeding overseas are the two biggest risks.

They have done well in Australia, and are continuing to gain market share. They've got some big names raving about them overseas like Kate Middleton. That is pretty heavy hitting.

I also don't necessarily subscribe to the what goes up must come down theory (with reference specifically to the SP- not the company). With hype this is true, but TIL is trading on a forward PE of 20 which is not particularly inflated given its growth

Still - have a look at Pumpkin Patch. They made in their hay days truckloads full of money. Not sure about PE (too long ago - their "prime" was in 2006 / 2007), but I am sure that it was at that stage well below 20. They still made in 2010 (the earliest annual report I could find) an NPAT of more than $25m - at a revenue of something like $300m!

Just look where they are now. SP graph is very educational (or should I say sobering?):

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=PPL.NZ&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=


But lets assume (for arguments sake) that they discovered the "holy grail" of a product: Producing cheap fragrances and selling them for lots of money = Big profits & huge growth.

What do you think is stopping other companies to come after them, try to snatch their heels and quickly erode their profits?

What do they have others don't? Any particular (and world wide protected) IP? A monopoly on growing rose hips? A secret recipe? A sales organisation with a secret X-factor?

NZ (and to a degree as well Australia) are isolated. Out of the international sight (too small and too far away), high transport cost to get there and quite stringent border controls (for goods as well as for people) - this makes it easier for locals to exploit local market niches. However - going outside this protected area is hard for them ... unless you have some unique advantage their competitors have not.

What advantage does TIL have?

[Cricketfan]

What advantage does TIL have?

Only celebrity endorsement, but not paid for so who knows when that will end.

[muss1]

I think you are over simplifying their business down to "cheap fragrances".

Tell me brand doesn't matter while looking at all the other designer companies out there. TIL are building a niche that is 100% natural, certified organic and carbon neutral. They sell that image and so far in our corner of the world people love it.

They have a foot in the door overseas which is showing promise albeit from a low base.

Yes, they could follow pumpkin patch. However at this point they are growing incredibly well. If things waver I will sell my investment. But currently I like the way things are looking.

I'm not a buyer at these levels because there is not much safety margin left, but I'm not a seller because the future is currently bright. When that changes then I'm not afraid to sell.

A competitive advantage is very important. But when a company is growing earnings like TIL along with being cheaply valued why sit on the sideline (I'm referring for when the SP was a lot lower). Don't fall in love with the company and be ready to exit should circumstances change

[Well Endowed]

Hi,

The celebrity endorsements are from Kate M & Cara D, however the bulk of the revenue is still NZ/Australian origin (30 & 44% respectively), UK revenue accounts for 8%. I doubt that Kate Middleton publicly coming out and saying she no longer uses trilogy rosehip oil would actually happen (as really who would make such an announcement?!) in my view all that is likely to happen would be her moving on and recommending some other beauty product. Now, is this likely to see a huge shift of Australasian based consumers to the next 'fad', possibly a few, maybe a more UK based consumers, I’m not sure.

The one observation I have made about the fairer sex is that they often stick with a makeup/cosmetic regime that works for them, and if indeed trilogy can remain relevant in packaging, offerings (occasional gift bags with purchase, set deals, new natural ‘wonder’ ingredients etc) they should have no problem retaining those who use their products, and perhaps recruiting a few more.


Interestingly when doing a quick google search you can see the power of word of mouth for trilogy in the form of blogs, forums & reviews. I think this seems to be the best method of getting the word out and new customers purchasing the product.


Just a few links from the past couple months:
http://www.mayonews.ie/living/nurturing/27017-eastern-promise
http://www.vegetarianbeautyproducts.com/trilogy-vegan-beauty-products/
http://www.borntobuyblog.com/2015/12/blogmas-day-three-trilogy-make-up-be.html
http://lenatalksbeauty.com/christmas-gift-sets-trilogy-goodness/
http://www.teeandw.com/trilogy-products-revew/
http://forum.femaledaily.com/showthread.php?22210-Trilogy-Skincare



I think that Trilogy's point of difference is being in the natural, environmentally friendly product offering in an industry that is clamoring to sharpen up as consumer preferences drift towards this. The below link demonstrates the way the industry is heading, with Obama banning/phasing out the use of micro-beads:
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/30/health/obama-bans-microbeads/

Trilogy presenting in a global setting, at an environmental conference in Monaco a month or so back:
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2015/12/prweb13132566.htm




I'm not suggesting at current prices it is a strong buy. But I still think that there is reasonable ‘bluesky’ attached to the current SP, and that prospects-wise and Trilogy’s positioning the industry seems to be in the right place at the right time. I certainly wouldn’t be investing in a profitable cosmetic manufacturer of chemical based or micro-bead product, that the vast quantity of supermarket and high tier manufacturers roll out. I still think that Trilogy could be ripe for acquisition as a bolt-on environmentally friendly division or defensive play for a larger producer.



As always, DYOR, in my opinion etc,.

Discl: happily holding since February 2015. :)

Cheers

[Well Endowed]

250k parcel sitting on the bid @ $3.12! :)

[noodles]

250k parcel sitting on the bid @ $3.12! :)

I reckon it is an Aussie Small Cap Fund who sees a major value cap between TIL and BWX.AX.

TIL share price needs a 4 in front of it to get to the same valuation

[sb9]

I reckon it is an Aussie Small Cap Fund who sees a major value cap between TIL and BWX.AX.

TIL share price needs a 4 in front of it to get to the same valuation


Thanks for that insight noodles, appreciate as always.

[muss1]

Very interesting. Most large trades have been off market and by pie funds as far as I can tell? Good to see a big player interested

[boysy]

Sell depth almost non existent, people being forced to bid up to purchase shares at the moment.

[sb9]

Seems as though 250k bidder @$3.12 has disappeared.

Shaping to to be an interesting trading pattern today, will NZX serve them with a speeding ticket going by past few trading days.

[boysy]

No need following the recent Aussie presentation me thinks. Would be good to hear how trading over Xmas went for ecoya especially due to the seasonal nature.

[BlackPeter]

Sell depth almost non existent, people being forced to bid up to purchase shares at the moment.

Buying when everybody starts to queue up to get hold of a security is traditionally a great way to lose money. I am pretty sure we have all seen times like that with other stocks before ... and how does this normally end?

Yes, they still look great value if we apply the Graham's formula without questioning where past growth came from and where future growth might be coming from. However - PE based on their earnings over the last 5 years is nearly 700 - not such a flash return, isn't it?

If holding the shares I'd see the current push as a great opportunity to sell out at a great price, but hey - maybe this time it is all different.

All the best to share holders. Good luck!

[muss1]

Buying when everybody starts to queue up to get hold of a security is traditionally a great way to lose money. I am pretty sure we have all seen times like that with other stocks before ... and how does this normally end?

Yes, they still look great value if we apply the Graham's formula without questioning where past growth came from and where future growth might be coming from. However - PE based on their earnings over the last 5 years is nearly 700 - not such a flash return, isn't it?

If holding the shares I'd see the current push as a great opportunity to sell out at a great price, but hey - maybe this time it is all different.

All the best to share holders. Good luck!

I think your cynicism is a bit over done here. A share that you can rationalise as relatively reasonable value with good growth prospects does not need the "this time will be different" tag. I have asked where growth has and could come from, and that's why I invested when the forward PE was single figures. Yes, growth might stall. But there are no indications that is going to happen in the short term.

[winner69]

BP - a DCF valuation with non existent growth is over $3

Feed some growth numbers for the next few years and north of $4 is the answer - even $5 if or gets reasonably bullish

Maybe this PIE Funds are using my model

[boysy]

Also I think people are writing off how the CS company acquisition could add synergies to TIL existing distribution in nz. You also wonder if the existing product sourcing relationships for said brands might bring the company to attention of bigger overseas fragrance brands.

[nextbigthing]

I think a good analogy is Kathmandu and puffer jackets, all the rage for a while, but look at them now. TIL's products are 'the thing to have/give' at the moment, but this may change and eventually suffer the same fate.

That said, they still have a lot of markets to 'become all the rage in' yet, so there's still plenty of growth ahead - make hay while the sun shines, just don't forget to stack it in the shed before it spoils. DYOR.

[muss1]

Also I think people are writing off how the CS company acquisition could add synergies to TIL existing distribution in nz. You also wonder if the existing product sourcing relationships for said brands might bring the company to attention of bigger overseas fragrance brands.

I also have to keep reminding myself this. Once TILs existing distributor is off contract that money goes straight to CS and there shareholders pockets (minus margin). That's growth for nothing (well low cost interest) right there

[boysy]

Yep and they have a much greater reach (Cs company distribution to 1950+ doors) much more than trilogy/ecoya doors combined. Noting Cs company has a three year earn out period so I can see why til in general may wait awhile before maximising these synergies.

[Well Endowed]

Other successful cosmetics companies have managed to get by selling the same unchanged product (ie Chanel No5, first produced in 1919). Who's to say that consumers who start using trilogy rosehip oil (the product that accounts for the bulk of trilogy's revenue) won't continue as they see the benefits of doing so? There's a possibility that the transition towards natural products that produce equally as good results as chemicals could become the new norm.

I find it hard to see how TIL could be compared to Kathmandu, Pumpkin Patch and all these others. There is a significant difference in puffer jackets/clothes vs consumable cosmetics. Kathmandu saturate the market with discount puffer jackets of which a consumer purchases one. TIL sell cosmetics in an almost subscription like model, whereby the consumer will use and continue to purchase if the desired results are acheived. I understand the changing trends theory, but unlike jackets and technological products such as tvs & phones, some popular salves,balms & makeup have been around unchanged for 100s of years?

[stoploss]

Other successful cosmetics companies have managed to get by selling the same unchanged product (ie Chanel No5, first produced in 1919). Who's to say that consumers who start using trilogy rosehip oil (the product that accounts for the bulk of trilogy's revenue) won't continue as they see the benefits of doing so? There's a possibility that the transition towards natural products that produce equally as good results as chemicals could become the new norm.

I find it hard to see how TIL could be compared to Kathmandu, Pumpkin Patch and all these others. There is a significant difference in puffer jackets/clothes vs consumable cosmetics. Kathmandu saturate the market with discount puffer jackets of which a consumer purchases one. TIL sell cosmetics in an almost subscription like model, whereby the consumer will use and continue to purchase if the desired results are acheived. I understand the changing trends theory, but unlike jackets and technological products such as tvs & phones, some popular salves,balms & makeup have been around unchanged for 100s of years?

what about the candles ? or is that a small part of the business these days ?

[Well Endowed]

Trilogy accounts for 56% of revenue, with the acquisition of CS company I can only see this enhancing the distribution of Trilogy (as ecoya business is probably not going to see the same level of synergies through that distributor). Also with the growth of the goodness brand, this seems to be the area of growth the company is focussing on, whilst Ecoya still delivers increased sales, I personally think the upside is the Trilogy/goodness business segments.

When you review their most recent presentation, the bulk of their main update points also are directed at the cosmetic side:
Trilogy Highlights:
• Rosehip Oil growth in all markets.
• Rosehip Oil sourcing and impact assessment.
• Asia distributor conference.
• Investment in people, office move and international.
• Wholefoods now 414 doors and growing.
• New Product Development.
• Makeup Be Gone Cleansing Balm.
• Age Proof relaunch & CoQ10 Booster Oil.
• Age Proof Media campaign – NZ, Australia, Asia.


Ecoya Highlights:
Significant Channel growth in majors
and department stores in Australia
and New Zealand.
• New Brand Collateral.
• Loyalty program on Ecoya.com.
• Windows in John Lewis (London) and
David Jones (Sydney).
• Christmas brand campaign.
• Seasonal Product Development.

[BlackPeter]

BP - a DCF valuation with non existent growth is over $3

Feed some growth numbers for the next few years and north of $4 is the answer - even $5 if or gets reasonably bullish

Maybe this PIE Funds are using my model

Hi winner, it might help if you give us some more of your working assumptions to support this statement.

Given that there is not a lot of analysis around for TIL ... what data do you put into your DCF? last years EPS was 7.4 cts/share. Even if we more than double that this year (due to the acquisitions) to 18 cents per share ... how do you get on this basis to a share price worth more than $3 without additional growth? What rate of return do you request for your model?

[BlackPeter]

I think your cynicism is a bit over done here. A share that you can rationalise as relatively reasonable value with good growth prospects does not need the "this time will be different" tag. I have asked where growth has and could come from, and that's why I invested when the forward PE was single figures. Yes, growth might stall. But there are no indications that is going to happen in the short term.

No cynicism at all. Just observing and coming to a logical conclusion. Lots of examples around in the past for companies where the SP was overshooting the fundamental values of the firm during a bullish growth phase. Some examples have been already mentioned on this thread. Given that you seem to feel that the same will not happen to TIL ... what is wrong with me stating that "this time it will be different"?

But hey - don't misunderstand me. I am not saying that TIL is a bad company or likely to suffer a terrible end. I wouldn't see any indications for that, yet. I just think that the SP started to get ahead of the inherent value of the company. These things happen - and markets are sometimes quite slow to move back to real value. There might be still lots of potential left for traders ... not so sure though at current SP about the companies potential for value investors.

Anyway - enjoy the ride while it lasts ...

[Snow Leopard]

BP - a DCF valuation with non existent growth is over $3

Feed some growth numbers for the next few years and north of $4 is the answer - even $5 if or gets reasonably bullish

Maybe this PIE Funds are using my model

I have a NPV of $2.59 with some growth for a few years, so whoever is buying at these ridiculously overvalued prices it is probably not me.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Own TIL but some of the products make me sneeze.

[LAC]

Disc: Own TIL but some of the products make me sneeze.

Love that line:)

[muss1]

No cynicism at all. Just observing and coming to a logical conclusion. Lots of examples around in the past for companies where the SP was overshooting the fundamental values of the firm during a bullish growth phase. Some examples have been already mentioned on this thread. Given that you seem to feel that the same will not happen to TIL ... what is wrong with me stating that "this time it will be different"?

But hey - don't misunderstand me. I am not saying that TIL is a bad company or likely to suffer a terrible end. I wouldn't see any indications for that, yet. I just think that the SP started to get ahead of the inherent value of the company. These things happen - and markets are sometimes quite slow to move back to real value. There might be still lots of potential left for traders ... not so sure though at current SP about the companies potential for value investors.

Anyway - enjoy the ride while it lasts ...

Let's agree to disagree on the market potential etc and discuss valuation. The company is about to double earnings per share (some of that comes from the acquisition and some is offset by increased marketing spend).

At a forward PE of 20, (as it was before today), I can't see why you think it is so overvalued. Let's assume for a minute it will grow earnings again by another 20% next year and the year after. Do you still call it overvalued? Yes, there are other factors other than PE ratios, but let keep things simple.

I know your point is that sales will stop growing, but I'd like to understand your rationale for saying it's so overvalued.

Disc. Holder but not buyer at these levels

[BlackPeter]

Let's agree to disagree on the market potential etc and discuss valuation. The company is about to double earnings per share (some of that comes from the acquisition and some is offset by increased marketing spend).

At a forward PE of 20, (as it was before today), I can't see why you think it is so overvalued. Let's assume for a minute it will grow earnings again by another 20% next year and the year after. Do you still call it overvalued? Yes, there are other factors other than PE ratios, but let keep things simple.

I know your point is that sales will stop growing, but I'd like to understand your rationale for saying it's so overvalued.

Disc. Holder but not buyer at these levels

OK - lets discuss valuations. A PE of 20 without sustainable growth would be historically very expensive for a retailer. Just to take some examples ... I wouldn't buy WHS, KMD, HLG unless the PE is below 10 ... (discl: hold none of them at current, despite all of them much closer to a PE of 10);

This means we need to assume sustainable growth. Sure - a consistent growth rate of "only" 20% (actually - even 10%) would do the trick, but how many specialist retailers do you know who managed to do this? See?

Where are your growth assumptions coming from? NZ population increasing their use of fragrance by 20% per year? Buying other fragrance retailers? How many are still left they can buy cheap? How many countries worldwide without an established market? Give me some reasonable growth assumptions (and examples for comparable companies achieving that before) and than it should be easy to establish a value ...

[boysy]

Might be worth reading the latest preso BP

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/228900.pdf

Especially page 12 where it details trilogy's respective share of the natural skin care brands. It's quite clear trilogy is a major player in nz with 24% market share but in Aus it is 5th with 8% of market share. Clearly still plenty of room for growth both within the natural beauty segment both locally and internationally, it's my bet this market is growing strongly so if trilogy simply retains its market share EPS should rise strongly over the next few years.

like most here I would imagine they can't see any value in buying say a $50 french pear flavoured candle, but the other half and most of her girlfriends most certainly do which we must not forget.

[muss1]

OK - lets discuss valuations. A PE of 20 without sustainable growth would be historically very expensive for a retailer. Just to take some examples ... I wouldn't buy WHS, KMD, HLG unless the PE is below 10 ... (discl: hold none of them at current, despite all of them much closer to a PE of 10);

This means we need to assume sustainable growth. Sure - a consistent growth rate of "only" 20% (actually - even 10%) would do the trick, but how many specialist retailers do you know who managed to do this? See?

Where are your growth assumptions coming from? NZ population increasing their use of fragrance by 20% per year? Buying other fragrance retailers? How many are still left they can buy cheap? How many countries worldwide without an established market? Give me some reasonable growth assumptions (and examples for comparable companies achieving that before) and than it should be easy to establish a value ...

Growing natural market, growing market share in Australia, any form of growth in other target markets. You say 20% isn't sustainable, but I think it certainly is for 2 years at least. Then you might be right, or it might keep going gangbusters. I will reassess my investment after every announcement and once growth slows to levels that no longer justify the SP I will sell. But while they are miles ahead of this rate I see no logic for penalising them at present and missing out on more gains

[winner69]

I have run a DCF valuation under 3 growth scenarios. Key to success is Trilogy revenue growth (how much and for how long).

The chart shows Trilogy (exc CS Co) revenues under the 3 scenarios, The Vlauation is notes on each line (the valuation has the impact of CS added in)

My $3.60 is probably the same as Paper Tigers $2.59 - he tends to use high discount rates than I do

He probably laughing his head off already - you all can join him if you want - I won't cry if you do

[muss1]

I have run a DCF valuation under 3 growth scenarios. Key to success is Trilogy revenue growth (how much and for how long).

The chart shows Trilogy (exc CS Co) revenues under the 3 scenarios, The Vlauation is notes on each line (the valuation has the impact of CS added in)

My $3.60 is probably the same as Paper Tigers $2.59 - he tends to use high discount rates than I do

He probably laughing his head off already - you all can join him if you want - I won't cry if you do

Thanks for sharing winner.

I think I'll grit my teeth and continue to hold through these not so overvalued times. A management upgrade before results is definitely on the cards too. I don't want to be on the sidelines for that. Recent presentations have hinted towards the top end of guidance so it's not unlikely

[Yoda]

I think a good analogy is Kathmandu and puffer jackets, all the rage for a while, but look at them now. TIL's products are 'the thing to have/give' at the moment, but this may change and eventually suffer the same fate.

That said, they still have a lot of markets to 'become all the rage in' yet, so there's still plenty of growth ahead - make hay while the sun shines, just don't forget to stack it in the shed before it spoils. DYOR.

KMD up 25% since May, so maybe puffer jackets are back in fashion .

[BlackPeter]

I have run a DCF valuation under 3 growth scenarios. Key to success is Trilogy revenue growth (how much and for how long).

The chart shows Trilogy (exc CS Co) revenues under the 3 scenarios, The Vlauation is notes on each line (the valuation has the impact of CS added in)

My $3.60 is probably the same as Paper Tigers $2.59 - he tends to use high discount rates than I do

He probably laughing his head off already - you all can join him if you want - I won't cry if you do

Hi winner, thanks for the graphs ... and I have to admit that the three assumed revenue growth paths you used for the model look reasonable to me (from conservative to optimistic). Still surprised though about the resulting share price estimates. You either must assume a rather low discounting rate, or an ongoing high margin (no concerns that competitors might want to take a piece of the cake, too?), or both.

[BlackPeter]

Growing natural market, growing market share in Australia, any form of growth in other target markets. You say 20% isn't sustainable, but I think it certainly is for 2 years at least. Then you might be right, or it might keep going gangbusters. I will reassess my investment after every announcement and once growth slows to levels that no longer justify the SP I will sell. But while they are miles ahead of this rate I see no logic for penalising them at present and missing out on more gains

Hi muss, actually - I don't think our views on TRI are too far away from each other. Maybe we talk more semantics. Personally I wouldn't call 20% growth over 2 years "sustainable growth". As well - you said that you wouldn't buy Trilogy at current price, just holding. Sure - why not, as long as the price keeps going up; The trick is just to get off board before everybody else wants to get out as well.

Anyway - all the best!

[winner69]

Hi winner, thanks for the graphs ... and I have to admit that the three assumed revenue growth paths you used for the model look reasonable to me (from conservative to optimistic). Still surprised though about the resulting share price estimates. You either must assume a rather low discounting rate, or an ongoing high margin (no concerns that competitors might want to take a piece of the cake, too?), or both.

Used 10% discount rate because that about what most guru analysts use and I was attempting to see what value they would come up with seeing they the ones who ultimately influence prices.

Personally I would prefer to use 12% - the $3.74 is then $3.05

I think the market hasn't yet factored in the value of the CS Co acquisition. Too engrossed on skincare (and the candles they make no money from)

[muss1]

Hi muss, actually - I don't think our views on TRI are too far away from each other. Maybe we talk more semantics. Personally I wouldn't call 20% growth over 2 years "sustainable growth". As well - you said that you wouldn't buy Trilogy at current price, just holding. Sure - why not, as long as the price keeps going up; The trick is just to get off board before everybody else wants to get out as well.

Anyway - all the best!

Hi BP, yes I think if we used each other's assumptions we would come to the same conclusions. I was struggling to understand given a certain (assumed) growth why you thought it was so grossly overvalued.

Good debate, differing opinions are why there is a market. Hopefully we've all learnt something!

Cheers

[sb9]

Its been good discussion both for and against. I guess at the end of day it all depends on your own research and investment objectives as we can never perfect entry and exit points barring few exceptions here and there.

Looks good today too with decent volume and strong bidding as some see further upside potential.

[golden city]

I am surprised the support volume looks strong

[golden city]

Equity funds might sneaks around

[boysy]

5:1 buy sell ratio and 37,000 buy at 3.26 could be an interesting end to the trading day.

[sb9]

And all on offer at $3.27 snapped up just like that...this getting really scary the way its played out!!!

[Well Endowed]

yep crept up as the 10k parcel at $3.27 was taken out. Not enough volume sitting on the sell side, back to a 13c spread! A good days volume through at +$500k. At what stage would trilogy start entering NZX50 talks?, another 100m of marketcap/ $4+ SP?

[winner69]

Hmmm - share price has blown out to a ridiculous level if we use Paper Tigers valuation or still cheap as if we use my valuations.

I'll stick to my view ....do Pie Funds or whoever is buying do the sums the same way as me?

Still a way to go I reckon

(Sorry PT for bringing you into the discussion. Couldn't resist)

[muss1]

Hmmm - share price has blown out to a ridiculous level if we use Paper Tigers valuation or still cheap as if we use my valuations.

I'll stick to my view ....do Pie Funds or whoever is buying do the sums the same way as me?

Still a way to go I reckon

(Sorry PT for bringing you into the discussion. Couldn't resist)

For pie funds to be buyers below $1, and still bullish enough to be buyers at $2.90 that's saying something. They could easily have sat on their (massive) holding, but they are still buying more.

Looks fully valued looking at this FY. Maybe punters see growth in this old dog after all. I see enough to keep me interested anyway.

[golden city]

I see it pie fund try to push up return % to cover up their loss in intueri

[golden city]

Otherwise the return from funds will look bad

[muss1]

I see it pie fund try to push up return % to cover up their loss in intueri

You can't push up returns on something you don't consider will go up though. As a fund manager you get some wrong and that offsets gains, I don't think they would do rush to cover up with poorly considered moves. At least I wouldn't...

[golden city]

Til is a very volatile stock. It is long term prospects is good. But going too far at the moment