TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[boysy]

Annual results due out sometime in the next 6 weeks which should smash expectations

[couta1]

Excuse me for what I have missed..

Why ???? Why did the chicken cross the road? To get to the other side of course.

[clarky]

Have seen big Trilogy advertising posters outside my local Wholefoods in London recently. No doubt the people who shop there can afford the Trilogy products!

[janner]

Why did the chicken cross the road? To get to the other side of course.

Is this the egg before the Squawk ????

[Snow Leopard]

Why did the chicken cross the road? To get to the other side of course.

Is that what the chicken told you?

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-O1YHu9K1bj0/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAAAFM/5v8vzk0bUlc/photo.jpg

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[LAC]

Question for the well seasoned investors, with a company growing as Trilogy, what do you think is an acceptable PE? I know it's been boomer growth and it's probably difficult/impossible to keep that up but what would you say is acceptable for this sector with with modest growth?

[couta1]

Is that what the chicken told you?

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-O1YHu9K1bj0/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAAAFM/5v8vzk0bUlc/photo.jpg

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger Still accumulating this morning so chicken has not arrived on other side of road just yet:cool:

[winner69]

Question for the well seasoned investors, with a company growing as Trilogy, what do you think is an acceptable PE? I know it's been boomer growth and it's probably difficult/impossible to keep that up but what would you say is acceptable for this sector with with modest growth?

Whatever falls out of a DCF valuation

For me thats a PE of about 30 on F16 expected earnings

LAC - why do you like PE ratios

[LAC]

W69, I actually like the EPS. I always document my buys with the PE on that given day, I have an estimate on what PE's I would like when purchasing based on my previous buys (PE's). But with Trilogy I seem to be purchasing all over the place but have it down to purchasing whenever lower than 24.
So at 30, what are you expecting the SP to be F17? +$5?

[winner69]

W69, I actually like the EPS. I always document my buys with the PE on that given day, I have an estimate on what PE's I would like when purchasing based on my previous buys (PE's). But with Trilogy I seem to be purchasing all over the place but have it down to purchasing whenever lower than 24.
So at 30, what are you expecting the SP to be F17? +$5?

My dcf valuation posted a little while ago is $4.45 - Based on expected eps of 15 cents f16 thats a pe of 30

That implies a price of just under $5 this time next year - anything less TIL is under valued on this basis

[couta1]

Still accumulating this morning so chicken has not arrived on other side of road just yet:cool: Chicken has finally arrived at the other side of the road after accumulating his final lot this morning, chicken is feeling overweight now with a full tummy of rosehip oil and a Barrow full of scented candles. Chicken can now rest and wait for good results:cool:

[winner69]

Chicken has finally arrived at the other side of the road after accumulating his final lot this morning, chicken is feeling overweight now with a full tummy of rosehip oil and a Barrow full of scented candles. Chicken can now rest and wait for good results:cool:

Good move couta

Sure your rewards will be high from this

Didn't Kate look radiant visiting India - the rosehip must be working. Hope she telling all the ladies in India about how good it is.

[Beagle]

Can they sell me a magic potion that makes me feel less old ?

[LAC]

Where there's a buyer and seller....anything is possible;)

[winner69]

Can they sell me a magic potion that makes me feel less old ?

Yes they do - some anti-ageing cream for the skin at $40/$50 a little bottle

Do away with your wrinkles mate and the serums do all sort of good things - skin feels good = Roger feeling good = Roger feels less old

[couta1]

Can they sell me a magic potion that makes me feel less old ? I would suggest some of their Active Enzyme cleansing cream,then some Botanical Lightening cream followed by the Nutrient plus firming serum, then finally before going to bed some Replenishing Night cream. That should do the trick,and to think you were wondering only yesterday about what you were going to spend all your money on.:cool:

[winner69]

Roger - you can now see why TIL isa great investment for the next few years

Potentially far greater returns than from say Scales but as high as from Summerset ........and maybe less risk(?)

[Beagle]

Yes they do - some anti-ageing cream for the skin at $40/$50 a little bottle

Do away with your wrinkles mate and the serums do all sort of good things - skin feels good = Roger feeling good = Roger feels less old


I would suggest some of their Active Enzyme cleansing cream,then some Botanical Lightening cream followed by the Nutrient plus firming serum, then finally before going to bed some Replenishing Night cream. That should do the trick,and to think you were wondering only yesterday about what you were going to spend all your money on.:cool:

Can I have side orders of snake oil and fries with that :) Not a true believer but I have ridden this horse profitably in the past and most of my good mates currently own some... so I suppose...

[couta1]

Can I have side orders of snake oil and fries with that :) Not a true believer but I have ridden this horse profitably in the past and most of my good mates currently own some... so I suppose... Yeah I'm staying on this horse for the long ride after dismounting my ride on SCL way too early which cost me mega bucks in gains, definitely time you mounted this baby before it gets too much older Id say. PS-Just bought another lot (Couldn't resist when people are offering them up at $3.25)

[winner69]

TIL boring as at the moment

Totally undervalued at the moment - almost inefficient market pricing or whstever the term is

Need couts to be another bundle to clear out he sell side and set a new base.

[Jinx]

Although maybe boring at the moment what are our real expectations for the FY16? Any more then EBIT over 15 million?
What will the expected EBIT for FY17?

[boysy]

The more important number is the outlook bear in mind they have beaten the last few profit upgrades recently which shows a level of conservatism. CLSA report notes ebit of 15m this year increasing to 22m next year, as previously mentioned I think their growth projections are a bit on the lite side. My bet 15.5m ebit FY16

[Hectorplains]

The more important number is the outlook bear in mind they have beaten the last few profit upgrades recently which shows a level of conservatism. CLSA report notes ebit of 15m this year increasing to 22m next year, as previously mentioned I think their growth projections are a bit on the lite side. My bet 15.5m ebit FY16

On this figures they'd be on a PE of 13 (and 9 for '17.) As good as their growth story has been; the market might be looking for that to be sustained in NZ and replicated overseas.

[kura]

On this figures they'd be on a PE of 13 (and 9 for '17.) As good as their growth story has been; the market might be looking for that to be sustained in NZ and replicated overseas.

EBIT is slightly different from Earnings used in PE ratio

[winner69]

On this figures they'd be on a PE of 13 (and 9 for '17.) As good as their growth story has been; the market might be looking for that to be sustained in NZ and replicated overseas.

Forget these PE ratio things - do a DCF to get a better idea of value

My base case DCF remains at $4.45 (review after profit announcements)

Put boysy's thoughts in and its well in excess of $5

[boysy]

Good to see some buying interest keeping the SP unchanged albeit on low turnover. still recon in a months time all holders will be laughing based on the better than anticipated result and outlook

[Jinx]

Interesting comparison between SCL and TIL. -- Disclaimer this could be completely wrong, I have no idea what I'm doing, please correct me :)

If TIL were to share split creating similar numbers of shares issued as SCL we'd be looking at a price around $1.50 a share. While SCL is currently at $3.20
So a difference of 210% in price in these two stocks assuming shares issued were identical.

Meanwhile SCL has a predicted EBIT of ~$53 million for FY16.
TIL's predicted EBIT for FY16 is ~$15 million

Obviously there is other factors that negotiate the price of a share, such as dividends which SCL also offer.
And factors like growth, this is where TIL clearly shines... But still.

So a predicted FY16 results difference of 350%
Compared to price difference of 210%


Disc: Holding TIL

[LAC]

Anyone know when the results will be announced? In the earlier or latter part of the month?

[Jinx]

Anyone know when the results will be announced? In the earlier or latter part of the month?

Most companies release them late May, last year from TIL was late May.

[boysy]

Decent day for til up 3 and some large off market trades at $3.30 after close

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/stock-trades?S=TIL&E=NZSE

[boysy]

Over 18k buy at 3.28

[sb9]

Over 18k buy at 3.28

330 now, only couple of weeks or so until results out. Should be around 350 by that time I reckon.

[boysy]

Decent bids at 330 now still good buying at these levels

[boysy]

Good finish to the day at 335

[sb9]

2
9
12:55:46 pm
337
25,000
$84,250
Off Market


3
8
12:48:08 pm
337
25,000
$84,250
Off Market


4
7
12:48:01 pm
337
25,000
$84,250
Off Market


5
6
12:32:02 pm
337
50,000
$168,500
Off Market




Few large off-markets trades today, accumulation in progress....

[boysy]

Yep if you look over the last few trading days plenty of off market trades

[sb9]

Yep if you look over the last few trading days plenty of off market trades

Its generally a good indication that the year end numbers are good....

[boysy]

Well everyone should know sometime in the next three weeks that much is known.

[boysy]

200000 shares traded off market now at 337 for a cool $674k

[boysy]

Volume on the sell side starting to dry up with the next sell at 342 should be a decent run through to reporting in under 3 weeks.

[Well Endowed]

consolidated nicely around these levels, the past month or two. There's been some good volume through too. Happy for some churn to bring in new holders at these levels.

[sb9]

1
9
3:39:29 pm
338
98,500
$332,930
Off Market




Almost another 100k shares transacted off-market. Accumulation goes on...

[LAC]

1
9
3:39:29 pm
338
98,500
$332,930
Off Market




Almost another 100k shares transacted off-market. Accumulation goes on...

Hi, how do you check off market trades? Is this done via a specific broker?

[sb9]

Hi, how do you check off market trades? Is this done via a specific broker?

From here

http://stocknessmonster.com/stock-quote?S=TIL&E=NZSE

[boysy]

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/

[LAC]

Awesome guys! thanks

[sb9]

Creeping up few cents everyday, market pricing in a good result.

[Balance]

Creeping up few cents everyday, market pricing in a good result.

Like Comvita, TIL is on a dream run.

[Southern_Belle]

Like Comvita, TIL is on a dream run.Happy to be a holder. Been keeping the faith.

[boysy]

And the market has priced in some fairly modest growth on a revenue and ebit basis when you compare to other companies in the sector

[boysy]

Decent jump in price to 350 it's approaching the all time high of 352. Sell depth really starting to thin out st this level with less shares on offer than have traded today so far.

[sb9]

Decent jump in price to 350 it's approaching the all time high of 352. Sell depth really starting to thin out st this level with less shares on offer than have traded today so far.

Ominous signs now, might get to that magic number as per winner's valuation, was it 440 winner?

[boysy]

Good buys heading into close at 351 with the next sell at 368 could be interesting trading tomorrow

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/282140

Very interesting...Pie funds % share holdings reduced from 10.29% to 9.28%.

[LAC]

For this disclosure—
(a) total number held in class: 6,366,477
(b) total in class: 61,874,508
(c) total percentage held in class: 10.29%
For last disclosure—
(a) total number held in class: 5,729,577
(b) total in class: 61,737,220
(c) total percentage held in class: 9.28%

I read it as accumulated...did I read it wrong?

[winner69]

https://nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/282140

Very interesting...Pie funds % share holdings reduced from 10.29% to 9.28%.

Think its an increase from 9.28% to 10.29%

That is how I read it

[sb9]

Think its an increase from 9.28% to 10.29%

That is how I read it

Ooppsy, apologies read it wrong way...

[boysy]

Yep says it all really the largest shareholder continuing to accumulate at this level that's got to be a sign of faith the results are anticipated to be stellar

[percy]

Yep says it all really the largest shareholder continuing to accumulate at this level that's got to be a sign of faith the results are anticipated to be stellar

Spot on...

[boysy]

You would hope if anyone would have run the ruler closely over TIL it would be pie funds. Bring on the annual results will be good running them against the brokers forcast with a $4.45 target price

[sb9]

330 now, only couple of weeks or so until results out. Should be around 350 by that time I reckon.
Bit conservative in my earlier estimate, now that Pie have increased their holding make that more like 4 bucks come results time.

[muss1]

Pie been talking to management I imagine. Maybe some positive commentary around overseas growth expected? Not much to be excited about for the FY about to be reported except a minor beat I'm thinking. It's next FY and the amount of revenue coming from USA, UK and Asia that has me excited.

[boysy]

It's good to have a look at the basis of the recent broker report and what numbers they used to base their valuation of $4.15. Certainly adds support that the share retains good upside with pie continuing to buy all the way up to 3.49

[winner69]

It's good to have a look at the basis of the recent broker report and what numbers they used to base their valuation of $4.15. Certainly adds support that the share retains good upside with pie continuing to buy all the way up to 3.49

My DCF base case value is $4.43 with the high growth rate scenario at $5.62

That broker valuation is mid point between my low growth and base case scenarios. They being conservative (and havea higher discount rate as well)

Stoll love my chart Post 482
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7968-TIL-Trilogy-formerly-ECO-Ecoya&p=605577&highlight=Chart#post605577

It's all going to plan

[vin]

Jumped back in on this, see how she goes

[Well Endowed]

up 19c to $3.70 this morning on low turnover

[boysy]

Decent bump in SP holding on to the majority of the gains at 368 presently. Very illiquid share at the moment if someone manages to take out the sells at 368.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

All the ducks have lined up on the chart again - suggesting it will continue its blue sky march forwards. Very clean break of the old high, albeit on very low volume.

[boysy]

Bidded up on close someone willing to pay 3.67 on close

[Balance]

Bidded up on close someone willing to pay 3.67 on close

Only a week or so from reporting.

[boysy]

Yep still quietly confident of a bumper result and 2017 outlook. When compared to other high growth market darlings this appears rather cheap still

[boysy]

Good start to the day for til with some decent early volume with results expected in the next two weeks

[Well Endowed]

yep, creeping up nicely. $3.72 today. $4 might not be too far away??

[boysy]

Decent buys coming through at 375 already $250k turnover . Happy to have picked up a few more at 370 this morning.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

A classic buy and accumulate uptrending stock. Easy money.

Looked like a bit of insto action before. There was another buy for 10k shares at 375, but it wasn't filled within a couple of minutes so was withdrawn. I'm sure they are still lurking there looking for some volume.

[boysy]

The action around 12pm suggests plenty of support at these levels not much on offer up to $4.

[sb9]

Back upto 375 again with decent bid at that level...interesting trade pattern so far.

[boysy]

Good end to the day of 380 solid volume ($300k) it would appear as though pie funds management are continuing to accumulate at these levels prior to the annual results being released.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

A bit of technical analysis for those interested...

It really comes down to buy, hold and accumulate in a strong uptrend though. People tend to find it so much easier buying a downtrending stock as it looks "cheap", but can never bring themselves to buy an up trending stock as it looks "expensive". I'll tell ya what, one methodology makes a lot more money than the other :)

8044

[blobbles]

A bit of technical analysis for those interested...

It really comes down to buy, hold and accumulate in a strong uptrend though. People tend to find it so much easier buying a downtrending stock as it looks "cheap", but can never bring themselves to buy an up trending stock as it looks "expensive". I'll tell ya what, one methodology makes a lot more money than the other :)

8044

Thanks Johnny, great technical analysis as always. Strong uptrend will hopefully accelerate with the imminent release of the annual report. If next years forward projections look good I expect to keep holding. Fantastic company so far with still excellent growth potential.

[Well Endowed]

VIP expanding into NZ, a huge online chinese retailer could expand Trilogy's market reach in China.

"In a two-way deal, the Guangzhou-headquartered business wants to vastly increase its purchases of New Zealand goods, particularly food, wine, pet products, mother and baby merchandise and cosmetics, she said."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11640255

[boysy]

Decent $50k bid of 380 could be interesting trading day with the next leg of sell depth at 393

[Well Endowed]

yeah shaping up nicely to make a run to $4.


Also, seems like trilogy is pushing the marketing further in the UK, Miranda Kerr still endorsing the brand and providing a free mini bottle on orders over £30.

http://livingprettynaturally.com/miranda-kerr-beauty-secret-rosehip-oil/


And the number of stockists listed on the website has increased considerably since I last checked 3-6mths ago - with over 40 stockists in London alone.

http://www.trilogyproducts.com/contact-us/where-to-buy/

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Price action suggests someone probably knows full year results are a bumper eh?

Bigger buys getting pulled off market when they aren't filled to try ensure price doesn't shoot up on appearance of large buy depth.

[boysy]

Interesting to note the occasional big bid popping up to test the market then withdrawn when no one is willing to sell. I like the 2:1 buy sell ratio st present, yesterday's action suggests someone is quietly confident of the upcoming results that much is for certain.

[vin]

4 sellers, wow.

[vin]

There she goes, $3.93. Stoked I jumped on board a couple of weeks back!

[boysy]

Good start to the day will be interesting to see if the 394 and 395 sells get taken out prior to cob today.

[winner69]

Boysy - i don't like this recent surge just before the profit announcement, it scares the proverbial out of me.

Unless the result is so good that it even exceeds your lofty expectations i can see a major pull back in the share price post announcement (the old buy the rumour sell the fact trick)

Still worth $4.43 but wish it had moved up more steadily

[boysy]

Winner the issue here is the growth going forward has yet to be quantified by anyone let alone the company. To date purchasers have been lucky as no local brokers cover the stock but this will no doubt change following the annual results and outlook going forward. Let's compare the results against the recent broker report and take it from there. While scarey imagine if they beat expectations even you have put together.

[kiora]

Boysy - i don't like this recent surge just before the profit announcement, it scares the proverbial out of me.

Unless the result is so good that it even exceeds your lofty expectations i can see a major pull back in the share price post announcement (the old buy the rumour sell the fact trick)

Still worth $4.43 but wish it had moved up more steadily

I agree W69. Maybe less scary than OHE rise over the last few months though as Til rise is with high daily volume when compared to average daily volume?

[Well Endowed]

There's still a 10c bid/ask spread, makes those wanting in have to chase the SP up. agree though, given the liquidity this could fall back in chunky 20c increments.

[Jinx]

$4 mark with a large profit taking sale (I'd assume)


yeah shaping up nicely to make a run to $4.


Also, seems like trilogy is pushing the marketing further in the UK, Miranda Kerr still endorsing the brand and providing a free mini bottle on orders over £30.

http://livingprettynaturally.com/miranda-kerr-beauty-secret-rosehip-oil/


And the number of stockists listed on the website has increased considerably since I last checked 3-6mths ago - with over 40 stockists in London alone.

http://www.trilogyproducts.com/contact-us/where-to-buy/

Although I have my doubts too about a stellar result being priced into the sp the biggest support I see too is the huge increase in retailers that are stocking TIL products now. Grown exponentially since I picked up TIL a few months back.

[sb9]

There we've it guys...



1
23
1:25:51 pm
400
150,000
$600,000
Off Market

[winner69]

Maybe my $5.62 high growth valuation is the 'right' one

[Jinx]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/235701.pdf

sp moving so fast even making the nzx uncomfortable :scared:

[BC_Doc]

Boysy - i don't like this recent surge just before the profit announcement, it scares the proverbial out of me.

Unless the result is so good that it even exceeds your lofty expectations i can see a major pull back in the share price post announcement (the old buy the rumour sell the fact trick)

Still worth $4.43 but wish it had moved up more steadily

Seems that NZX shares your concern about the recent price surge. I dont think TIL has failed to disclose anything though.

[boysy]

Buying off market in large chunks my bet the smart money is telling us the results are going to be premo. Not long to wait but the fairly healthy buys suggest the annual results will confirm winner69 valuation may be conservative.

[vin]

Is there a set date for FY results?

[Jinx]

Is there a set date for FY results?

Before the end of May
Last year it was the 25th
I'd assume it'd be next week some time :)

[boysy]

Will this Ann expedite release of the annual results one wonders

[winner69]

Buying off market in large chunks my bet the smart money is telling us the results are going to be premo. Not long to wait but the fairly healthy buys suggest the annual results will confirm winner69 valuation may be conservative.

The $5.62 one eh

[boysy]

I would happily buy you a drink winner69 if that situation eventuates. I hope sooner rather than later, while drawing a long bow look at trilogy profit and revenue against comvita to see how this thing could fly

[vin]

the skyrocket that was comvita between 2015 and now is insane

[boysy]

And look at the underlying revenue and profitability of each entity. I'm not comparing one to another but it is worth noting the similar growth expectations and similar revenue but significantly different valuations at present.

[Yoda]

Many people waking up to organic and natural cosmetics and probiotics , essential oils etc... BLT also maybe gaining a foot and will be an interesting year for them too. Maybe worth a look.... 4 yr high .035 today at one point. Wrong thread i know, but just if you are interested, DYOR .
Thanks Forest for your intro to TIL last nov. at our meeting.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

It's possible that this is caused by the May MSCI index reshuffling. TIL may now have a larger weighting, resulting in funds having to up holdings by May 31st, which is tough on a thinly traded share. If this is the case then volatility may continue until the end of the month.

[boysy]

Not sure I would imagine til would be some way away from inclusion into a major index such as the nzx50. Market cap is still probably a bit light and shares too tightly held though I would love to be proved wrong.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Not sure I would imagine til would be some way away from inclusion into a major index such as the nzx50. Market cap is still probably a bit light and shares too tightly held though I would love to be proved wrong.

TIL is in the MSCI World Micro Cap Index. NZX50 index is still some way off.

[boysy]

What proportion of the index does til comprise I would be suppressed if it was hundreds of thousands of dollars if not more as volume today would suggest

[boysy]

Decent day all in all some funny business like usual on pre close with a opportunistic 15000 bid at 390 for a few minutes

[Jinx]

Was it Pie funds stopping to buy at $4? Or just a bad day for the market so not much buying pressure?

[boysy]

Til treading water today but one has to remember she's had a dream run up to 396. Someone was confident enough to shell out $600k worth at 400 yesterday. People still buying up today just not the huge volume like yesterday

[sb9]

Bit of reality check perhaps?

[muss1]

Just following the normal pattern. Decent gain then pull back for a month or so before the next leg up. May still have legs this time, but seeing it settle around 3.80 would be pretty much in keeping with the last year

[boysy]

Large off market trades continuing to flow through 300k worth over a $1m at 390 today alone. Question has to be who is buying and who is selling.

[boysy]

With over 1% of the company Changi g hands off market in the last few days makes you wonder if pie funds management are continuing to buy shares at these levels

[boysy]

Decent on market buys so far $126k st 390 today. Next line up is the 395 with the buy sell ratio up to 1:1. Interesting few trading days leading into the annual results one would imagine.

[Southern_Belle]

Decent on market buys so far $126k st 390 today. Next line up is the 395 with the buy sell ratio up to 1:1. Interesting few trading days leading into the annual results one would imagine.

Watching Comvita today with interest. Birds of feather flock together.

[Jinx]

Today's point of interest for me would be the change of address. No one moves for no reason huh?
Either an upgrade in office space or a downgrade, I'd be suggesting there's little chance of a downgrade.

[boysy]

Decent floor plate in Chelsea house with level 6 encompassing 306sqm. Of more interest to myself is the decent level of purchases around the 390 level both on and off market recently. Would be good to understand who the off market buyer has been though if it was pie funds management they would hold off playing their hand regarding substantial shareholder change to post the annusl result one would imagine ie to sit under the 1% threshold change before playing their hand so to speak of.

[sb9]

Friday 27th May is the results date fellow holders...

[winner69]

Haven't they been in Chelsea House for years?

[boysy]

Analyst conference call 10am friday this sounds interesting might be a bit more brokerage coverage going forward then. So results prior to market open on Friday bring it on.

[vin]

Will it crack $4 this week? Rollon the 27th..

[winner69]

Only 3 more sleeps to go boysy

It is going to be a boomer of a result, isn't it?

[boysy]

Couldn't help myself topped up a few this morning. One has to think with brokers being inclued in the annual result presentation some analysis will filter out from the brokerage houses early next week. Might be the last week til flies beneath the radar. Of course I could be proven wrong but I think the fact they are including brokers indicates they are looking to start selling the story more to the broking community. Like cvt assuming they continue to grow my personql opinio is til will be inclued in the nzx50 sometime in the next 6-12 months.

[sb9]

Someone wiped out the entire 395 line and plus the 396 line....

[Balance]

http://www.latimes.com/health/la-he-0507-roses-in-bloom-20160504-snap-story.html

[sb9]

http://www.latimes.com/health/la-he-0507-roses-in-bloom-20160504-snap-story.html

Good find Balance and just like that 399 now...

[winner69]

Do Trilogy / Ecoya market rose oils as a aphrodisiac

Prob in a subliminal way Ecoya does

[boysy]

Decent volume continuing today on market with a decent $89k bid at 396. Not long to wait until the recent run can be quantified by results to date and expectation going forward.

[boysy]

Fair bit of line wiping taking place with turnover of $730k taking place. It appears as though someone's willing to buy up large off market one would think.

[LAC]

Will it crack $4 this week? Rollon the 27th..

Didnt have to wait the week....

[sb9]

1
23
2:35:18 pm
400
10,000
$40,000
Off Market


2
22
2:34:52 pm
400
20,000
$80,000



3
21
2:31:54 pm
400
50,000
$200,000
Off Market


4
20
2:31:44 pm
400
16,783
$67,132



5
19
2:31:44 pm
400
5,000
$20,000




Last few trades, I think its bye bye $3 range....into $4 range.

Hey winner, you may have to revisit your valuation higher than higher I think....

[boysy]

And volume has dried up once again with the buy sell ratio back to 2:1 and next sell at 410 420 and 430 respectively. Perhaps Vin might need to up his guess for it to Crack 450 by Friday ?

[winner69]

1
23
2:35:18 pm
400
10,000
$40,000
Off Market



2
22
2:34:52 pm
400
20,000
$80,000



3
21
2:31:54 pm
400
50,000
$200,000
Off Market


4
20
2:31:44 pm
400
16,783
$67,132



5
19
2:31:44 pm
400
5,000
$20,000




Last few trades, I think its bye bye $3 range....into $4 range.

Hey winner, you may have to revisit your valuation higher than higher I think....

Looks like i need to stick to the high growth scenario of $5.62

Getting $4.45 would be a fail from here eh

[sb9]

Looks like i need to stick to the high growth scenario of $5.62

Getting $4.45 would be a fail from here eh

Absolutely, how long it took for it to crack from the 325s range to get into $4 mark, 3 to 4 weeks perhaps.

Not too long for 445 I reckon...

[couta1]

TiL is a bright light in a dark room for me so won't be letting any go until it reaches its full potential.

[vin]

Great to watch! Enjoying the ride.

[sb9]

TiL is a bright light in a dark room for me so won't be letting any go until it reaches its full potential.

Nice one couta1, can't wait for Friday...am expecting an element of surprise from the results :)

[blobbles]

Looks like expectation is high for Friday, $4 might be a bargain come this time next week.

[Balance]

Caution required - ATM shows how quickly a stock can turn.

Prefer to wait now for results before deciding to add more.

[QOH]

Caution required - ATM shows how quickly a stock can turn.

Prefer to wait now for results before deciding to add more.
Wise words, hope the result does live up to expectations.

[boysy]

One final trading period before the annual results could be interesting trading with recent buyers locking in profits or new buyers entering the frey.

[percy]

Today's announcement of TIL buying 25% in Chilean Rosehip producer is extremely positive.
Securing supply will mean future growth is now achievable.

[Jinx]

Today's announcement of TIL buying 25% in Chilean Rosehip producer is extremely positive.
Securing supply will mean future growth is now achievable.
Certainly seems like good news gearing up for tomorrows great news :D

[IAK]

Today's announcement of TIL buying 25% in Chilean Rosehip producer is extremely positive.
Securing supply will mean future growth is now achievable.

Have TIL looked at producing Rosehip oil in NZ?

[boysy]

Well well they are thinking long term having bought a 25% share of chile's largest rose hip producer and gained a long term supply agreement this bodes well for continued supply of the sought after commodity.

[Balance]

Have TIL looked at producing Rosehip oil in NZ?

Extremely labor intensive and needs dry hot climate all year round.

Go to Central Otago region and they used to harvest rosehips from the wild planrs on the hillsides in the 60s and 70s.

[sb9]

expecting an element of surprise from the results :)

Well, there is that surprise a day before....great news.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Today's announcement of TIL buying 25% in Chilean Rosehip producer is extremely positive.
Securing supply will mean future growth is now achievable.

Supply of rosehip oil, especially organic, has been becoming quite limited and would certainly limit growth. This is a VERY smart move by TIL. Secures supply for growth and is earning accretive.

[sb9]

Looks like i need to stick to the high growth scenario of $5.62

Getting $4.45 would be a fail from here eh

Might have to be closer to $6 with that announcement, eh winner?

[Southern_Belle]

yea m8...........huge worldwide demand for scented candles right now.........esp High Tech ones!! LOL if you bought into this nonsense you get what you deserve!!
Time is a GR8 healer....

[vin]

Will be interesting to see how this goes when results are released, already significant bump up today with announcement, whether or not it'll be priced in for tomorrow. Soon see!

[Everwood]

This is a good announcement. I'm looking forward to reading the results tomorrow morning. It is feeling a bit like the day before Christmas when I was a child.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Will be interesting to see the action around 12-1pm, have been seeing the big volume around then lately. The funds accumulating right now will not be happy with the latest announcement fuelling more price rises.

[LAC]

Hi, what does that actually mean? 25% of Forestal Casino's net income pa will be added to Trilogy's? Or has Trilogy made some sort of supply deal with Forestal Casino for Rosehip oil? Or both?

[boysy]

Supply of rosehip oil was seen as a major risk identified in the clsa broker report. Good to see management taking proactive steps to secure supply of rose hip oil. Interesting to note as well that trilogy got preferred access to rose hip oil from Lesotho due to providing a better oil extractor to the producer some time back.

[percy]

Hi, what does that actually mean? 25% of Forestal Casino's net income pa will be added to Trilogy's? Or has Trilogy made some sort of supply deal with Forestal Casino for Rosehip oil? Or both?

From the announcement;
"The acquisition delivers future supply certainty of certified organic rosehip oil for TIL while enabling Forestal Casino to expand at a faster rate to meet growing demand."

[IAK]

Extremely labor intensive and needs dry hot climate all year round.

Go to Central Otago region and they used to harvest rosehips from the wild planrs on the hillsides in the 60s and 70s.

Thanks for that Balance. Well grow them in Central Otago, produce a premium NZ product and access labour from the islands ala kiwifruit/apple orcharding.

[winner69]

Might have to be closer to $6 with that announcement, eh winner?

When I tweak the $5.62 high growth scenario (now the base case) of $5.62 TIL will definitely have a target of $6 in my mind

I'm sure my $4.62 number not that long ago was met with some cynicism (price was in $2.70 range then) but i have faith in my modelling.

Will update my DCF stuff over the weekend to see what comes out. I really keen to see how much margins have expanded and build that in.

[silverblizzard888]

Hi, what does that actually mean? 25% of Forestal Casino's net income pa will be added to Trilogy's? Or has Trilogy made some sort of supply deal with Forestal Casino for Rosehip oil? Or both?

Its possible they might recognise the 25% income for the Trilogy Group since there is relevance, but I guess it comes down to their accounting policies. Don't think Briscoes adds Kathmandu revenues to their own given they own about 20% or else their numbers would really jump, they did however recognise dividends. Don't think theres much incentive to recognise it for Trilogy. If you look at a company like Rubicon they however do recognise it in the part ownership way, but thats mainly cause most of what they own is in part ownership.

There will be a supply agreement and thats what the part ownership is for and giving part payment in shares to a line the owners of Forestal Casino to have their interest in mind. No selling inside a two year period, so I think that is certainty of them being their for the long term.

Trilogy have been nothing short of clever in their dealings. They have so far wrapped up raw material side of things, the produce side and the distribution.

[winner69]

Its possible they might recognise the 25% income for the Trilogy Group since there is relevance, but I guess it comes down to their accounting policies. Don't think Briscoes adds Kathmandu revenues to their own given they own about 20% or else their numbers would really jump, they did however recognise dividends. Don't think theres much incentive to recognise it for Trilogy. If you look at a company like Rubicon they however do recognise it in the part ownership way, but thats mainly cause most of what they own is in part ownership.

There will be a supply agreement and thats what the part ownership is for and giving part payment in shares to a line the owners of Forestal Casino to have their interest in mind. No selling inside a two year period, so I think that is certainty of them being their for the long term.

Trilogy have been nothing short of clever in their dealings. They have so far wrapped up raw material side of things, the produce side and the distribution.

Will just show as an Investment in their Balance Sheet

They say not worried about collecting dividends - use the cash for more rosehip production

[sb9]

Haven't seen any comments from Roger or noodles on this thread recently, hope you guys are still on board?

[boysy]

So the dice have been cast no further bets until after market open by which stage the annual results will be known by all. One has to question the timing of the release today but I'm not complaining.

[noodles]

Haven't seen any comments from Roger or noodles on this thread recently, hope you guys are still on board?
I still hold. Initial buy 10/3/15 @82c. But have been buying recently at $3.38.
The announcement today is very significant in de-risking the stock.

[blobbles]

So the dice have been cast no further bets until after market open by which stage the annual results will be known by all. One has to question the timing of the release today but I'm not complaining.

They have to release such information once they ink the deals. I am sure it is just coincidence.

Regardless of the news tomorrow (I am expecting it to be quite pleasant!), this appears to be a very well run company whose current shareprice will look like chump change in a few years if they keep doing what they have been doing. They have de-risked many parts of their business now, are being stocked in a growing number of stores and are growing hugely as a result. They also have a very good product, my wife swears by their products, as do other (more famous!) people who have also been making favourable comments.

I can't see any downside long term to holding onto them. It would take a considerable series of unfortunate events to turn their momentum at this stage, I feel.

[sb9]

I still hold. Initial buy 10/3/15 @82c. But have been buying recently at $3.38.
The announcement today is very significant in de-risking the stock.

Good on ya noodles.

Yes, they seem to be addressing all key competitive elements very wisely, I think this will be one to watch for in years ahead...

[couta1]

Dynamic Results.

[winner69]

Dynamic Results.


.......yes indeed ....but slightly below expectations (at least what I had in my DCF model)

Suppose we continue to have to believe in the hype and ongoing market exhuberence if we are to see $5 any time soon

And while i wrote that Ecoya sold 3 more things globally - no make that 4

[couta1]

.......yes indeed ....but slightly below expectations (at least what I had in my DCF model)

Suppose we continue to have to believe in the hype and ongoing market exhuberence if we are to see $5 any time soon

And while i wrote that Ecoya sold 3 more things globally - no make that 4 At least you get a divvy while you wait unlike many other hype driven companies aye.

[muss1]

Results are pretty much in line with expectations.

I like the commentary going forward. Growing at faster than the market implies 30% rev growth at least for NZ and Aus. Good signs from the larger US Asia and UK markets. A lot to like if they continue to execute. They sound quietly confident

[boysy]

Let's see how the brokers read the lay of the land following digesting the presentation and financial information. Lots to like about the presentation but the biggie is how til continues to grow going forward

[winner69]

Let's see how the brokers read the lay of the land following digesting the presentation and financial information. Lots to like about the presentation but the biggie is how til continues to grow going forward

Not quite $90m revenues though boysy, hought you were getting a little excited when you made that call

[blobbles]

Not sure we can expect better at this stage from them! Over 100% revenue growth (49% in their products only), over 200% EBIT growth. Securing supply at this stage of their growth phase is critical and now complete.

One of the best things about TIL is there aren't a lot of surprises. Their guidance was spot on and brand loyalty (due to their quality products) should mean good growth is inevitable if they get into more stores, which they have. 17m spend on marketing (up from 10m the year before) should mean they are well positioned going forward.

Expecting big growth next year considering the jump in stores selling their products in the past 6 months.

[boysy]

Indeed the headline figure didn't excite me but it would appear as though they are retaining margins which they previously mentioned would be under pressure. This is and remains a growth story so a bit disappointed they didn't give am indication of revenue etc.

[benjitara]

Results already priced in by the looks of it all. Nice dividend for holders though...
I do not hold.

[blobbles]

Not quite $90m revenues though boysy, hought you were getting a little excited when you made that call

Last revenue update for FY16 given on 10 March. Don't know how anyone could expect them to make an extra 7m in the last 20 days of the month on top of predicted earnings for those 20 days! A bit of a big ask for any company.

[kiora]

If add in FY16 for CS & Co rather than 7.5 months looks solid plus not starting distribution of Trilogy & Goodness brands through CS & Co from July 16 throughout NZ.Looking good,3 bagger +

[trader_jackson]

Solid results, but share price has more than priced this year's (and beyond...) growth into account

(Disclosure: would not feel comfortable buying or holding at such elevated prices!)

[sb9]

In line with their update...pretty happy. One key takeout from the presentation for me is:

Significant increase in EBITDA margins.
•
Increased profitability across all brands and all markets while
continuing to invest to support expansion of business and
drive future sales growth.
•
While growing, distribution subsidiary CS&Co, contributes
lower margins compared to the
TIL product business, but in line with distribution category.

Hope they can improve the margins from CS&Co...

[trader_jackson]

I hope liabilities don't keep jumping up by 50m every year!

Operating cash flows were not to flash either, so lets hope TIL grows several hundred percent for many years (Like PEB) so liabilities don't have to keep jumping higher and higher along side weak operating cash flows that wen't alot better than last year (in absolute numbers).

[kiora]

I hope liabilities don't keep jumping up by 50m every year!

Operating cash flows were not to flash either, so lets hope TIL grows several hundred percent for many years (Like PEB) so liabilities don't have to keep jumping higher and higher along side weak operating cash flows that wen't alot better than last year (in absolute numbers).

OP cash flows understandable when inventories up $15m. It happens when growing.

[blobbles]

I hope liabilities don't keep jumping up by 50m every year!

Operating cash flows were not to flash either, so lets hope TIL grows several hundred percent for many years (Like PEB) so liabilities don't have to keep jumping higher and higher along side weak operating cash flows that wen't alot better than last year (in absolute numbers).

Uhhhh, presenting one side of that equation aren't you? With assets growing 60m,they are still very much solvent...

[boysy]

Or when you buy a company using debt did you forget the cs company aquisitio and deferred consideration. Talk about trying to talk a company down wih out knowing the back story.

[couta1]

tj naughty boy for using Peb as a comparison, I know where I'd rather put my money ie up 45k on Til, went down 45k on Peb, spot the difference.

[trader_jackson]

OP cash flows understandable when inventories up $15m. It happens when growing.

Yup we all know dick smith liked to build up their inventory (of their brand products - after they borrowed heavily to do it of course)... it happens when growing right? (then they collapsed as they had to write it down massively, but even I don't think this will happen to TIL) ;)

and yes it is good to see assets are just outgrowing liabilities! trading at 28 PE now, ok I suppose, assuming they continue to double profit in the next year (and don't get crushed by, for example, finance costs, which increased 470% this year, and then completely ignore any other execution/inventory/competitor risks), they will be trading at PE of 14 next year which is back to reasonable, and maybe this time next year share price could be expected to grow again - this would be my logical way of looking at it, but sometimes Mr Market is not logical!

[trader_jackson]

tj naughty boy for using Peb as a comparison, I know where I'd rather put my money ie up 45k on Til, went down 45k on Peb, spot the difference.

I know it was very naught of me for mentioning PEB, TIL can only get better where as PEB can only get worse... (right?)

(but yes I won't mention PEB anymore as they are totally different companies of course...)

[Apathy]

Its an excellent result .... but TJ is correct - needed to be with PE where it is. Best part for me - they aren't dependent on the China bubble.

[winner69]

C
OP cash flows understandable when inventories up $15m. It happens when growing.

And that increase included the acquired CS inventories

[winner69]

Market excited - good stuff

Over the next few months fundamentals mean squat all - its all about the market buying an exciting story

$5 here we come ...then????

[kiora]

Yup we all know dick smith liked to build up their inventory (of their brand products - after they borrowed heavily to do it of course)... it happens when growing right? (then they collapsed as they had to write it down massively, but even I don't think this will happen to TIL) ;)

and yes it is good to see assets are just outgrowing liabilities! trading at 28 PE now, ok I suppose, assuming they continue to double profit in the next year (and don't get crushed by, for example, finance costs, which increased 470% this year, and then completely ignore any other execution/inventory/competitor risks), they will be trading at PE of 14 next year which is back to reasonable, and maybe this time next year share price could be expected to grow again - this would be my logical way of looking at it, but sometimes Mr Market is not logical!

I,m comfortable with :Trade & other receivables $14.4,Trade & other payables $12m,acquisition C &S cost around $260,000,shifting office Wellington to Auckland,total extraodinary costs $1m

[muss1]

Yup we all know dick smith liked to build up their inventory (of their brand products - after they borrowed heavily to do it of course)... it happens when growing right? (then they collapsed as they had to write it down massively, but even I don't think this will happen to TIL) ;)

and yes it is good to see assets are just outgrowing liabilities! trading at 28 PE now, ok I suppose, assuming they continue to double profit in the next year (and don't get crushed by, for example, finance costs, which increased 470% this year, and then completely ignore any other execution/inventory/competitor risks), they will be trading at PE of 14 next year which is back to reasonable, and maybe this time next year share price could be expected to grow again - this would be my logical way of looking at it, but sometimes Mr Market is not logical!

Finance costs increase when you buy a business with debt. But given that business earns more than the finance costs it sounds like a pretty good move if you ask me. A PE of 28 is not cheap, but I'm more than happy to keep holding given their potential revenue growth is 30% or more this year with plenty more room to grow their home markets after that. Earnings will be more than that.

A PE of 14 is an absolute bargain for a company growing earnings by trilogy's amount and hence good luck waiting until it gets there. Look at other NZX companies with good growth rates. What's their PE? I think you're being a bit naive having maybe missed the boat.

[winner69]

How did the analyst briefing go?

Impressed were they? with more getting on board next week

[kiora]

How did the analyst briefing go?

Impressed were they? with more getting on board next week

Went well :$1m in extraordinary costs.Increase in on line and retail shop sales eg Farmers.Only 7.5 months of C & S included.Hard to see any downside

[winner69]

Went well :$1m in extraordinary costs.Increase in on line and retail shop sales eg Farmers.Only 7.5 months of C & S included.Hard to see any downside

Thanks

New keen shareholders next week then

[muss1]

Will be interesting to see the recommendations come in. Could see that PE of 28 keep on going TJ

[kiora]

Will be interesting to see the recommendations come in. Could see that PE of 28 keep on going TJ

In my view can easily see EBITA $24m next year ,EPS 22.5c/share minimum

[winner69]

In my view can easily see EBITA $24m next year ,EPS 22.5c/share minimum

Jeez - my $5.62 valuation (as it stands at the moment) has $24.3m for F17 which gives NPAT of ~$16m (eps 25 cents)



Will look through the accounts and news and fine tune the model over the weekend and see what comes out

Need to take into account the impact of the new 2.6 million shares being issued - might lower the valuation a bit

[kiora]

In my view can easily see EBITA $24m next year ,EPS 22.5c/share minimum

This is without any upside allowed for Ecoya,Trilogy,Goodness increase (allow 30 % upside in these brands?)

[Snow Leopard]

The companies future outlook reads as 'blowed if we know what is going to happen' to me.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Hold too few

[percy]

The companies future outlook reads as 'blowed if we know what is going to happen' to me.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Hold too few

Seems to have worked a treat so far.

holding; just enough.! "WP'd"

[winner69]

Not a bad day share price wise

Once the news that they are taking these confident strides forward gets around the share price will continue its meteoric rise

[blobbles]

I notice in one of their releases they state "One ECOYA product is now sold every 23 seconds around the world", I would emphasise the NOW part... every 23 seconds, that's ~1.3 million a year being sold at current rates.

Quick look at the ECOYA website, they have 345 items for sale... bit of excel wizardry... and came up with the attached.

8073

Basically a breakdown of the range of the cost of each item on their website, giving a decent distribution. Say their sales match the cost distribution (unlikely, but hey why not :-) ) and you can get a reasonable idea of what their current revenue is for the ECOYA brand. Note I have assumed a lower, not middle figure as a multiplier for the revenue figure, just to be conservative. HOWEVER, this would only be true if they sold to the distribution pattern AND sold everything via their website. Neither is true, but its a bit of fun for a Friday night. The biggest thing affecting these figures I am sure, would be that they supply their goods to resellers for a LOT less than I have indicated. But even if you knock 25% off this figure, they still would have increased from 20.1m to 30m since last year...

[Balance]

.......yes indeed ....but slightly below expectations (at least what I had in my DCF model)


Time for a breather, W69.

Suspect TIL has left plenty of earnings upside left in the tank for FY2017.

These boys know how to play the under-promise but over-deliver game with the market.

[percy]

Time for a breather, W69.

Suspect TIL has left plenty of earnings upside left in the tank for FY2017.

These boys know how to play the under-promise but over-deliver game with the market.

Totally agree.!

[winner69]

Segment analysis

Really ****ty (v hype) last 6 months in Australia - lower sales growth than H1 and made no more profit than same half last year.

Thats how I see it anyhow

[winner69]

Segment stuff.

Sales outside of ANZ increased from $8.3m last year to $13.0m this year.

An extra $4.7m sales ($2.0m) ebitda) isn't that much (after all Trilogy is a $0.25 billion company) but does highlight what might be if they get any decent traction outside of ANZ.

[winner69]

Let's see the annual report, I imagine any additional ecoya sales will flow directly through to the bottom line. They have had to spend up large re marketing to get a presence but this should pay off on the basis they increase sales.

Seen the Ecoya sales out of Australia yet boysy - up $1.2m on pcp in H1 but only $0.7m in H2 on pcp.

Not much of an increase?

[muss1]

I've crunched some numbers.

Assuming growth in line with segment for natural products (21-26%), ecoya growth 10-15% and some margin expansion.... I get 26cps for FY17. Now I feel this case is conservative if revenue only grows by the above, especially for natural products.

That includes full year of CS&Co (2cps in addition to FY16), 1.5cps from CS&Co having the trilogy contract.

My bull case is a bit more exciting as additional revenue is hard to estimate, but adds up pretty quickly.

Happy to discuss or answer any questions about my numbers. Cheers

[noodles]

I've crunched some numbers.

Assuming growth in line with segment for natural products (21-26%), ecoya growth 10-15% and some margin expansion.... I get 26cps for FY17. Now I feel this case is conservative if revenue only grows by the above, especially for natural products.

That includes full year of CS&Co (2cps in addition to FY16), 1.5cps from CS&Co having the trilogy contract.

My bull case is a bit more exciting as additional revenue is hard to estimate, but adds up pretty quickly.

Happy to discuss or answer any questions about my numbers. Cheers
You are probably a little more aggressive than me. I estimate EBITDA around $24.5m, eps=25c
This puts TIL on a EV/EBITDA=11.8
Compare this to BWX with an EV/EBITDA=15.5. So more upside from here as BWX is the best comparison on the ASX.

The new acquisition has not been considered.

Winner, I think your concerns about Aussie growth are warranted, but we need to be aware that 1h15 was a low base. 2H15 was a lot more robust. I think Australia must have had a lot more marketing spend than NZ.

[percy]

EPS.
2015.......0.07cents
2016..........15cents ..114%increase on 2015.
Now we are concentrating on 2017
Kiora is on 22.5 cents a very modest 50% on 2016's ,15cents.
Noodles and Winner 69 are on 25cents a devilish 66.66% increase on 2016's .15 cents.
Muss1 is on .26 cents which is a healthy 73.3% increase on 2016's .15 cents.
When the growth rate is twice the PE I am sure there is room for the sp to continue its upward trajectory.

[winner69]

As I mentioned before the market took ages to attribute any value to CS Dist. I think the share price was around 150/160 a month after the announcement which wasn't much higher than prior to it.

With annualised expected ebitda of ~$10m that's worth at least a $1 for the share price.

The meteoric rise in the share price over the last six months or so is a combination of recognising what CS is worth along with the hype about growth in Skincare products.

(Still believe the Ecoya stuff is a distraction but heck seeing they got it it might contribute a little but wont be 'making' the company)

[winner69]

Noodles or anybody - can you explain these -

Presentations say EBITDA is $16.3m but Segment Analysis says EBITDA is $18.8m - is the $2.55m unallocated Admin costs or something?

But the Income Statement says EBITDA is $15.3m, $$1m lower than the presentation number. Is this the $1.0m of one off costs they talked about.

should have listened to the analyst briefing eh. Be good to know the answers if you know, otherwise a call to Lewer is in order.

I don't like announcements/ presentations that don't reconcile to the Accounts without an explanation. I couldn't find any published dicuments.

Updating DCF on hold in meantime.

[noodles]

Noodles or anybody - can you explain these -

Presentations say EBITDA is $16.3m but Segment Analysis says EBITDA is $18.8m - is the $2.55m unallocated Admin costs or something?

But the Income Statement says EBITDA is $15.3m, $$1m lower than the presentation number. Is this the $1.0m of one off costs they talked about.

should have listened to the analyst briefing eh. Be good to know the answers if you know, otherwise a call to Lewer is in order.

I don't like announcements/ presentations that don't reconcile to the Accounts without an explanation. I couldn't find any published dicuments.

Updating DCF on hold in meantime.
pg.23 of the financial statements is the place to look. Not sure where you got $15.3m?
Of the $1m in one-offs, only the acquisition costs are treated separately. I think the rest are hidden in Admin costs?

[winner69]

pg.23 of the financial statements is the place to look. Not sure where you got $15.3m?
Of the $1m in one-offs, only the acquisition costs are treated separately. I think the rest are hidden in Admin costs?

thanks mate

The other $1m (I was missing) are those gains on financial instruments and contingent remeasurement consideration items

[vin]

Ouch, 5.5% today. Under $4. What's going on

[Jinx]

Ouch, 5.5% today. Under $4. What's going on

Profit. Taking.

Happy to watch it tank for however long it needs to, will only bounce as we keep getting market updates :)

[reacher]

Profit. Taking.

Happy to watch it tank for however long it needs to, will only bounce as we keep getting market updates :)

Yup, management cashing in too I imagine.

[vin]

Mmmm expected I guess, maybe an opportunity to topup.

[sb9]

Large price movements are what you get with tightly held stock like this one...

[blobbles]

Clearly some were expecting a short term bounce from the annual report and are getting out when it didn't happen. Happy to see them go!

[Beagle]

The companies future outlook reads as 'blowed if we know what is going to happen' to me.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Hold too few

Will take confident strides in dynamic consumer sectors. Not the sort of language we're used too is it ! I prefer defined targets...must be the bean counter in me.
Good growth company but I prefer CVT with its defined target of doubling sales and proven benefits of manuka honey... still one supposes that a bob each way isn't a silly idea either.

[muss1]

Too much thinking required to identify what potential sales might be next year? Must be too expensive. Do your research quickly before the brokers clear the air too much

[silverblizzard888]

After results came out and working out real growth rate, even at 50% growth for the next 3 years my fair value for the market cap would be around $236 million for now or about $3.81 per share. The price was anticipating a lot more and probably a forecast too, but it seems the uncertainty puts more risk in it. Though it is a good business, but even good businesses can reach an overvalue point.

*Just my thoughts on a valuation, I'm sure many here have different ways they value and end up with different numbers too.

[Jinx]

After results came out and working out real growth rate, even at 50% growth for the next 3 years my fair value for the market cap would be around $236 million for now or about $3.81 per share. The price was anticipating a lot more and probably a forecast too, but it seems the uncertainty puts more risk in it. Though it is a good business, but even good businesses can reach an overvalue point.

*Just my thoughts on a valuation, I'm sure many here have different ways they value and end up with different numbers too.

50% growth each year for 3 years = a EPS of 50c in three years correct?

Edit: Numbers
current eps 15c
1 year @ 50% growth = 22.5c
2 years = 33.75c
3 years = 50.6c

Edit 2: More numbers
Revenue growing by 50% each year for 3 years = 280m revenue in three years. I'd be smiling at that

[muss1]

50% growth each year for 3 years = a EPS of 50c in three years correct?

Edit: Numbers
current eps 15c
1 year @ 50% growth = 22.5c
2 years = 33.75c
3 years = 50.6c

Yes agreed... What's behind your numbers SB? Percy posted his summary of other posters EPS for next year, would be interesting to see where you fit in

[silverblizzard888]

50% growth each year for 3 years = a EPS of 50c in three years correct?

Edit: Numbers
current eps 15c
1 year @ 50% growth = 22.5c
2 years = 33.75c
3 years = 50.6c

(This is working out todays current fair value, as time passes of course it will be worth more by next year)

My value model is based off sales and growth. I broke up the 83 million revenue. 55 million for Trilogy, Goodness and Ecoya and 28 million for CS&Co.
55 million growing at 50% is about 185 million compounded for 3 years.
CS & Co was 28 million for 7.5 months. Adjust to work out 12 months is about 38.5 million. I think this company will only grow at about 10% for the next 3 years compounded. Gives about 51 million for that in sales.

*so that might provide a bit more clarity that I didn't do a straight 50% growth on all sales. I think CS & co given they are a distribution company won't be growing like the rest of the business.

The general view for growth companies is to value what their sales worth is in 3 years or 5 depending on their expansion potential, I've gone with 3 years as retail products just start to diminish growth after a while. Add the two numbers together and you have 236 million market as fair value for today.


**If they achieve 50% growth next year then my market cap value for them will be 334 million in 12 months time or $5.40 per share.

[muss1]

Thanks for breaking down your thinking. What is your fair value in a years time? My growth assumptions lead to 26cps next year, which leads me to something significantly higher than $4 one year on. Obviously we invest based on an expected SP appreciation over time, so fair value today with a certain amount of growth can still be a good investment when considered what fair value is in a years time.

[silverblizzard888]

Thanks for breaking down your thinking. What is your fair value in a years time? My growth assumptions lead to 26cps next year, which leads me to something significantly higher than $4 one year on. Obviously we invest based on an expected SP appreciation over time, so fair value today with a certain amount of growth can still be a good investment when considered what fair value is in a years time.


If they achieve 50% growth next year then it confirms they can continue to grow at this solid rate, then my market cap value for them will be 334 million in 12 months time or $5.40 per share.

*However if they grow at less then 50% then value of share could be a lot less.

I listened to the conference call and they said they will likely grow more than the Pharmacy growth rate for natural skincare which is a bit more then 20%.

If you did a 40% growth model for Trilogy, Goodness and Ecoya and 10% for CS, then you have a value of 267 million or $4.32 per share in 12 months time and thats quite possible that growth slows a little from this year. I think you should always prepare for them to under-perform and buy with a margin of safety.

[Jinx]

Considering we had EBITDA growth of 208% from 15-16, surely a 50% growth figure for 16-17 seems....very possible?

EDIT: Also worth noting (not that I know what I'm talking about at all) that market cap is an odd way to calculate growth, revenue, EBITDA, EPS all seems like better ways to calculate where the market cap will be next year, from this we can guess a share price. But to start at the market cap seems backwards? Someone please correct me :)

[muss1]

If they achieve 50% growth next year then it confirms they can continue to grow at this solid rate, then my market cap value for them will be 334 million in 12 months time or $5.40 per share.

*However if they grow at less then 50% then value of share could be a lot less.

Thanks for clarifying. I've only assumed a max revenue growth rate of 25% (different over the different segments) and come out with around $6 per share. And that's my relatively conservative model

[silverblizzard888]

Considering we had EBITDA growth of 208% from 15-16, surely a 50% growth figure for 16-17 seems....very possible?
You want to consider the business and make an adjustment that they acquired CS & Co so it made ebitda jump, without CS & Co ebitda increased 118%. That puts it into a better perspective. Sales usually grow a lot less than ebitda, especially considering TIL can be considered a fairly high margin business.


Thanks for clarifying. I've only assumed a max revenue growth rate of 25% (different over the different segments) and come out with around $6 per share. And that's my relatively conservative model

As I did say we all have different ways of valuing so interesting to hear you got to $6. I prefer my way cause its simple and provides a conservative way to look at it. I'm not a fan of using multiples of anything because the basis for that use is on the sector and other firms around it. This can change very quickly and sometimes does not provide the most accurate way of measure, assuming you used a certain multiple based on other firms.

[muss1]

You want to consider the business and make an adjustment that they acquired CS & Co so it made ebitda jump, without CS & Co ebitda increased 118%. That puts it into a better perspective. Sales usually grow a lot less than ebitda, especially considering TIL can be considered a fairly high margin business.



As I did say we all have different ways of valuing so interesting to hear you got to $6. I prefer my way cause its simple and provides a conservative way to look at it. I'm not a fan of using multiples of anything because the basis for that use is on the sector and other firms around it. This can change very quickly and sometimes does not provide the most accurate way of measure, assuming you used a certain multiple based on other firms.

Yep. I prefer to keep things as simple as possible as the market doesn't care how flash your model is, so I certainly agree with you there. I have done my assessment as a holder deciding whether to sell (I have decided certainly not). Therefore I have tried to be conservative but realistic. If I were deciding whether to buy I would have been more conservative and applied a lower multiple to a slightly lower EPS. Maybe something closer to $5-5.50

[winner69]

Considering we had EBITDA growth of 208% from 15-16, surely a 50% growth figure for 16-17 seems....very possible?

EDIT: Also worth noting (not that I know what I'm talking about at all) that market cap is an odd way to calculate growth, revenue, EBITDA, EPS all seems like better ways to calculate where the market cap will be next year, from this we can guess a share price. But to start at the market cap seems backwards? Someone please correct me :)

Market cap is Enterprise Value less debt

Best way to calculate Enterprise Value is by a DCF analysis - to give an equity value (ie market cap)

Far more robust valuation method than using multilpes - so jinx, not an odd way of coming to an valuation

[Jinx]

Far more robust valuation method than using multilpes - so jinx, not an odd way of coming to an valuation

Thanks for the explanation Winner!

[winner69]

Updated my DCF valuation

The future is all about how much revenues from Trilogy/Ecoya (particularly Trilogy) so done a few scenarios as to what future revenues might look like and fed them into the DCF Model. CS impacts are feed in separately (because they have lower growth expectations and have lower margins)

Base case is valuation is now $5.09

A high growth for longer scenario gives $6.34 while a lower growth scenario gives $3.83

So in my view the market is currently valuing TIL if it follows the bottom line on the chart (30% revenue growth not counting CS in F17), Pretty conservative

As such I am inclined to still believe the hype and expect revenues to at least follow the middle line - and see a higher share price than now in the future

But really wow if the hype is really supper hype - $6 sounds good

Load of the old proverbial eh so have a good laugh - but I have faith in my analytical and financial modelling skills. But that doesn't guarantee the market sees things this way as the market acts in funny ways sometimes.

I betch Pie Funds analysts numbers aren't that different from mine

[Jinx]

So does this mean your valuation at 30% growth your looking at a 3.80 value in 2025?

[winner69]

So does this mean your valuation at 30% growth your looking at a 3.80 value in 2025?

No - the $3.83 is todays value. Its the present value of all future cash flows

I used a 11% discount rate which implies a 'value' of $9.80 in 2025 (if things play out as per assumptions used)

[Jinx]

No - the $3.83 is todays value. Its the present value of all future cash flows

I used a 11% discount rate which implies a 'value' of $9.80 in 2025 (if things play out as per assumptions used)
Ahhh makes much more sense! Thanks for the patience in explaining these things

[muss1]

Just to clarify my position - my value of $6.25 is at 31 March 2017. I've been careful in calculating what I expect this FY revenues to be and how that will filter down to the bottom line. Trilogy is currently the highest margin, then CS&Co followed by ecoya. I prefer not to try to estimate earnings too far out as I see it as a dark art. Suffice to say I see FY17 as estimateable and I'm happy that the growth trajectory will still have legs to continue beyond FY17 (at which point I'll roll forward my estimates). I know the growth needs to continue to deem my method relevant. If I thought growth would fall off a cliff or was unsustainable I would not be applying this technique.

I am estimating what I think the market will reasonably pay on 31 March 2017 and investing accordingly.

Many will see my method as over simplistic and that's fine. I consider many other factors as well. In my other life as a structural engineer there is a saying "earthquakes don't care how fancy your model/analysis is" and it's something that rings true with me for the stock market (and other parts of life) as well. I mean no disrespect to other ways of doing things. I'm glad we can have a robust discussion and share our assessment of things!

cheers

[winner69]

My Base Case scenario has an eps of ~27 cents for FY17

[kiora]

My Base Case scenario has an eps of ~27 cents for FY17

So 50% increase in EPS & forward PE of 18 at $3.86 hmmm

[winner69]

So 50% increase in EPS & forward PE of 18 at $3.86 hmmm

Kiora

Base Case is $5.09 now - implying $5.90 in a years time

I'll refer to that in future (The $3,83 case if high growth isn't sustained post F17)

[muss1]

Good to see our black boxes have come out at a similar FY17 eps winner. Mr market hasn't been able to come up with the same over the weekend though by the looks.

I wonder when the first broker report will be in. Any ideas?

[stevevai1983]

50% growth each year for 3 years = a EPS of 50c in three years correct?

Edit: Numbers
current eps 15c
1 year @ 50% growth = 22.5c
2 years = 33.75c
3 years = 50.6c

Edit 2: More numbers
Revenue growing by 50% each year for 3 years = 280m revenue in three years. I'd be smiling at that

This is very optimistic. Next year 50% is easy because F16 only counted 7.5 month of CS.
but i don't think Trilogy can maintain this high growth in F18 and F19. It's more like 20~30% growth rate.

[Jinx]

This is very optimistic. Next year 50% is easy because F16 only counted 7.5 month of CS.
but i don't think Trilogy can maintain this high growth in F18 and F19. It's more like 20~30% growth rate.

Just to explain my position, I wasn't suggesting that the 50% figure is sustainable, was simply running silverblizzards numbers :)

[kiora]

Kiora

Base Case is $5.09 now - implying $5.90 in a years time

I'll refer to that in future (The $3,83 case if high growth isn't sustained post F17)

Hi W69,I meant the $3.95 yesterdays closing price,not your projections.I should have implied seems undervalued at yesterdays closing price of $3.95 given its potential growth.

[boysy]

Someone throwing away money at 385 this morning it would seem. One has to wonder when the first broker report based on the most recent presentation is released.