TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[janner]

Looking at the current trend. 5 dollar per share is on its way. Won't be profit taking yet.

GC.. You are beginning to read like W69. :-))))

[boysy]

Winner69 that high side valuation of yours might become reality in the next few week if the recent spurt in SP continues. The biggie i think is the serious off market buying which is taking place in large chunks at the market price. It doesn't appear as though the recent jump in price is being driven by retail investors of an illiquid stock, rather instos which are happily loading up off market. For us poor old retail holders its almost impossible to pick up any decent sized share parcel without seriously bumping the SP.

[NZSilver]

I dont want to ramp, but we could see $5 today!! nearly at the $5.50-6 valuation once on the ASX

[boysy]

Certainly continues to jump up 8 to 484 I think the 500 barrier may have to wait until later on this week but I wouldn't mind being proven wrong. I think we may start to follow the tail of BWX on the ASX.

[BlackPeter]

I dont want to ramp, ...

Are you absolutely certain about this statement?:D

[King1212]

On that basis profit taking should of taken base sometime this week following the share issuance.


U might be right...!

[vin]

Thought there would be a bit of a dump of shares today, probably majority small holdings who couldn't resist taking some profits after it reached its peak of $4.84 - I'd expect it to creep over and beyond it's high later this week

[sb9]

Thought there would be a bit of a dump of shares today, probably majority small holdings who couldn't resist taking some profits after it reached its peak of $4.84 - I'd expect it to creep over and beyond it's high later this week

Its good to see bit of pull back in price today....meaning getting ready for bigger jump later on in the week. I think we might see that $5 mark pretty soon...notice BWX is trading in the 515 range.

On other note anyone received refund yet? Haven't got mine.

[Poaix]

Its good to see bit of pull back in price today....meaning getting ready for bigger jump later on in the week. I think we might see that $5 mark pretty soon...notice BWX is trading in the 515 range.

On other note anyone received refund yet? Haven't got mine.

I haven't gotten a refund yet.

Are we expected to get via the form we paid? i.e. I paid via online transfer. I assume I should get back that way also?

[IAK]

Its good to see bit of pull back in price today....meaning getting ready for bigger jump later on in the week. I think we might see that $5 mark pretty soon...notice BWX is trading in the 515 range.

On other note anyone received refund yet? Haven't got mine.

I hope so, it's been a great ride so far. Haven't received my refund yet either.

[Cricketfan]

Are we expected to get via the form we paid? i.e. I paid via online transfer. I assume I should get back that way also?

I think you get the refund in the same way as you get dividends.

Edit: Just got an email confirming the refund, so it should show up in our bank accounts pretty soon.

[LAC]

Called up earlier on and they said it is getting sorted today - unsure if that means it will be paid today or tomorrow into our bank accounts.

[sb9]

Called up earlier on and they said it is getting sorted today - unsure if that means it will be paid today or tomorrow into our bank accounts.

Just checked my bank a/c and refund is paid by direct credit.

[Poaix]

Just checked my bank a/c and refund is paid by direct credit.

Which bank account are you with? I am with ASB

[Cricketfan]

Which bank account are you with? I am with ASB

I'm with ASB too and the refund has just shown up...

[sb9]

Which bank account are you with? I am with ASB

Kiwibank...

[QOH]

I'm with ANZ no sign of either of our refunds nor any email.

[boysy]

Cash in my Bnz acc ... BWX having a good day to its all time highs. Presume TIL will remain an NZX proxity until ASX listing one only has to see the PE of 60x for BWX to see TIL will run hard on an ASX listing basis. Lack of brokerage coverage has been a blessing in disguise for the last wee while but surely now is the time to front up with relevant forecast of earnings ?

[QOH]

Ours has now gone in.

[DarkHorse]

Refund showing up now in my account...
Hard to believe it was 87 cents in March last year and not high-risk - I've done so much better thanks to sharetrader ideas than would've from just broker picks :)

[Southern_Belle]

Great outlook for Trilogy. Under 35 year old female travelers a huge growth market.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11676776

[LAC]

Great outlook for Trilogy. Under 35 year old female travelers a huge growth market.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11676776

For TIL or THL?

[mondograss]

Darn it! Got the refund but to the same suffix I get my dividends to rather than the one I paid the SPP from. Now I've got to sacrifice a months bonus interest to get the refund back to where I wanted it.

[RupertBear]

Darn it! Got the refund but to the same suffix I get my dividends to rather than the one I paid the SPP from. Now I've got to sacrifice a months bonus interest to get the refund back to where I wanted it.
Yes me too

[waikare]

Kiwibank...


I am with Kiwibank and have just checked my account 2.20 pm no sign of the refund

[sb9]

I am with Kiwibank and have just checked my account 2.20 pm no sign of the refund

I would check couple of things...do they (computershare) have your correct bank a/c if so I would ring them to find out...

[Southern_Belle]

For TIL or THL?Both now that you mention it.... I meant Trilogy as the sell through pharmacy at airports. I spent the afternoon in Arrowtown and Trilogy on main street pharmacy. They said it is the number one self select seller for skincare products.

Only concern is they had sold out of some of their product range....... have seen this before, they need to sort out their distribution.

[mondograss]

Often tourists will buy up in bulk for gifts back home. Probably difficult in a place like Arrowtown with busloads coming through to keep enough stock unless they place pretty big orders.

[Southern_Belle]

Often tourists will buy up in bulk for gifts back home. Probably difficult in a place like Arrowtown with busloads coming through to keep enough stock unless they place pretty big orders.I travel around NZ a bit and always take note of Trilogy displays in pharmacies, airports and Farmers stores. Have seen out of stock in Auckland Christchurch and Queenstown.

I have a hefty investment in Trilogy and make it my business to watch it like a hawk.

[Poaix]

Still haven't got my refund yet..

[LAC]

Still haven't got my refund yet..
Did you call up computershare to find out? Dont think anyone on here is going to be able to help you out....might just be that they sent u a cheque instead of a bank deposit but only one way to find out....
09-4888 700

[QOH]

Did you call up computershare to find out? Dont think anyone on here is going to be able to help you out....might just be that they sent u a cheque instead of a bank deposit but only one way to find out....
09-4888 700
I sent our money by cheque but had refunds direct credited to bank account same day as everyone else

[boysy]

Short answer if you have not set up dividend payment details electronically in computershare or did not pay SPP electronically then your refund will be returned as you paid it is via cheque

[Poaix]

confirmed. will receive by cheque.

thanks!

[sb9]

Selling pressure on.....

[Poaix]

Would you guys agree that the price drop in the last few days is due to the profit taking?

[BlackPeter]

Would you guys agree that the price drop in the last few days is due to the profit taking?

What price drop? TIL SP is well above all relevant MA's; I guess nobody is able to predict where the price is going tomorrow, but at this stage I would call this a quite rampant bull run. If you are new to investing, than you probably need to get used to some volatility. The SP never ever moves just into one direction ...

Discl: don't hold;

[winner69]

Would you guys agree that the price drop in the last few days is due to the profit taking?

You worry too much poaix

TIL going just fine

No worries

[sb9]

You worry too much poaix

TIL going just fine

No worries

I thinks so too, just pausing at the moment for the next run up...note BWX has just hit 530, my reckoning is $5 isn't far away for this pup...

[Southern_Belle]

I thinks so too, just pausing at the moment for the next run up...note BWX has just hit 530, my reckoning is $5 isn't far away for this pup...
Have to agree, this volatility is par for the Trilogy course. Profit taking?? Brexit ?? China stock plunge?? have all been given as reasons for the volatility but overall the share price is up significantly this year. The pull back in the NZ dollar should also help this exporter's bottom line.

[BC_Doc]

Anyone else got a discrepancy on the SPP allotment notice sent to them in the mail?? Applied for full allotment and got given 3177 shares as verified on computer share but the statement mailed to me said I was allotted 3194

[QOH]

Anyone else got a discrepancy on the SPP allotment notice sent to them in the mail?? Applied for full allotment and got given 3177 shares as verified on computer share but the statement mailed to me said I was allotted 3194

Yes mine says 3177 and husbands says 3182.

[sb9]

Anyone else got a discrepancy on the SPP allotment notice sent to them in the mail?? Applied for full allotment and got given 3177 shares as verified on computer share but the statement mailed to me said I was allotted 3194

No problem with mine, allocated 3177 and statement also shows same 3177. All good!

[boysy]

Interesting to see BWX having a strong run on the ASX. If people think TIL is running on a long PE ratio they would hate to look at BWX current 65.92x PE if TIL was trading on that multiple it would be $10.04 not the $4.68 it is.

[sb9]

Interesting to see BWX having a strong run on the ASX. If people think TIL is running on a long PE ratio they would hate to look at BWX current 65.92x PE if TIL was trading on that multiple it would be $10.04 not the $4.68 it is.

I be happy with of that price close to $5 for now...

[Pricey]

if you search "renew rosehip oil" on google, which is a BWX product, the second result is a review recommending the Trilogy equivalent instead. Promising.

[LAC]

if you search "renew rosehip oil" on google, which is a BWX product, the second result is a review recommending the Trilogy equivalent instead. Promising.
That's great but recently I sent a female friend to Life pharmacy with the details of exactly what she should get from the Trilogy range (she was in the market for rosehip oil) she returned with Evolu roehip oil. She told me she was hard sold by the rep at Life pharmacy that the Evolu brand is better and cheaper, she indicated to my friend bits on the labelling which showed Evolu was 100% Organic and Trilogy was not. She did an entire demo on my friends skin with Evolu and not Trilogy and offered get 2 bottles for $39 which is a huge discount to Trilogy. I dont mind the selling point as if Evolu is a great product for a good price then Trilogy should compete but the fact the customer came in for a specific product and the rep has sold her something else with a better "story" suggests Life pharmacy probably get a better deal/commission for selling Evolu over Trilogy. This was just one example, we never know how many more of these sales get taken away from Trilogy.
I was thinking of letting Trilogy know but thought it should be what their marketing team should be doing right?

[Balance]

That's great but recently I sent a female friend to Life pharmacy with the details of exactly what she should get from the Trilogy range (she was in the market for rosehip oil) she returned with Evolu roehip oil. She told me she was hard sold by the rep at Life pharmacy that the Evolu brand is better and cheaper, she indicated to my friend bits on the labelling which showed Evolu was 100% Organic and Trilogy was not. She did an entire demo on my friends skin with Evolu and not Trilogy and offered get 2 bottles for $39 which is a huge discount to Trilogy. I dont mind the selling point as if Evolu is a great product for a good price then Trilogy should compete but the fact the customer came in for a specific product and the rep has sold her something else with a better "story" suggests Life pharmacy probably get a better deal/commission for selling Evolu over Trilogy. This was just one example, we never know how many more of these sales get taken away from Trilogy.
I was thinking of letting Trilogy know but thought it should be what their marketing team should be doing right?

You should let Trilogy know - good feedback for their marketing team.

Also need to nip this kind of sales behavior in the bud - classic sales technique employed by competitors to leverage off the standard bearer brand. That was how Pepsi for eg got a foothold in NZ after Lion Nathan took up the beverage. Shoppers were offered a taste of Pepsi and then, offered Pepsi at a discount to Coke. Given that there's not a lot of taste difference, shoppers started trying out Pepsi and before you know it, Pepsi started grabbing huge chunks of market share off Coke.

Trilogy will need to employ sanctions against the shops which use such techniques to undermine its brand, forgetting about sales for a minute.

[Ghost Monkey]

Trilogy will need to employ sanctions against the shops which use such techniques to undermine its brand, forgetting about sales for a minute.

Doubt they'll attempt that with Life Pharmacy. Besides, go into a decent sized store and you'll be faced with a number of similar products, Evolu, Trilogy, Snowberry and Manuka Doctor, plus a couple others I forget. Life seems to cycle through different sales/promotions for each company every couple of weeks, so they probably just push whichever companies' product has agreed to a promotion. I went in for Snowberry last year, got sold Manuka Doctor. Was on special. Highly recommended. Blah blah blah. But I figured whatever, give it a go. Have stuck with it since.

Sanctions would probably backfire spectacularly.

[LAC]

Doubt they'll attempt that with Life Pharmacy. Besides, go into a decent sized store and you'll be faced with a number of similar products, Evolu, Trilogy, Snowberry and Manuka Doctor, plus a couple others I forget. Life seems to cycle through different sales/promotions for each company every couple of weeks, so they probably just push whichever companies' product has agreed to a promotion. I went in for Snowberry last year, got sold Manuka Doctor. Was on special. Highly recommended. Blah blah blah. But I figured whatever, give it a go. Have stuck with it since.

Sanctions would probably backfire spectacularly.

I might drop them an email on Monday as suggested but I think Trllogy have to market their product as an absolute premium to the others or price them accordingly, recent visit to Farmers show that are the most expensive Rosehip oil but u also get some sort of freebie with the purchase (cant remember what it was), so a rep would need to make sure a customer knows that Trilogy is a premium product else the customer will most definitely opt for a cheaper option.
I dont use it personally lol so I would not know whats the difference between the brands:) all I know is that I am invested in one of them:) so keep selling them off the shelves haha

[sb9]

Bit quiet around here....

Well seems as though the new base is forming around that 460 mark for the moment, will probably have to wait bit longer for that magic $5 mark.

[golden city]

made decent profit again.., decided to let it go again.., heavily onto cav instead

[boysy]

Interesting trading when you oh see BWX powering ahead at 529. ,As people have suggested most here would be sitting at a sizeable profit so happy for the SP to consolidate at this level of support. That ASX listing will next catalyst me thinks or a trading update would be good.

[Ghost Monkey]

I might drop them an email on Monday as suggested but I think Trllogy have to market their product as an absolute premium to the others or price them accordingly, recent visit to Farmers show that are the most expensive Rosehip oil but u also get some sort of freebie with the purchase (cant remember what it was), so a rep would need to make sure a customer knows that Trilogy is a premium product else the customer will most definitely opt for a cheaper option.
I dont use it personally lol so I would not know whats the difference between the brands:) all I know is that I am invested in one of them:) so keep selling them off the shelves haha


Well, don't think there is too much to worry about. Went into Life Pharmacy yesterday (Botany Town Centre Auckland, so quite a big one), I knew what I wanted but asked them for a recommendation anyway. After being directed to some average stuff, possibly the size of my wallet being underestimated, I requested the 'good stuff'. Was then promptly shown the Trilogy range!

They had 6 shelving columns with skin care displays and brands like Antipodes, Snowberry, Manuka Doctor, Living Nature, Avene (? or something like that) and a new one called Bee-Bio. Trilogy products took pride of place with fully 2 whole shelving columns devoted to their products! So obviously they sell or they wouldn't get that much space.

[vin]

^ Awesome, great to hear that Trilogy is regarded as a premium product.

[sb9]

Thought I would grab some comparative numbers between BWX and TIL. Below are key metrics and it appears BWX has higher PE multiple attributed mainly due to higher profitability margins. And TIL margins may be dragged down by CS & Co to a larger extent (happy to be corrected on this) and hence a lower PE multiple perhaps...

Appreciate your thoughts around this and BWX numbers are from their investor presentation docs from their website and TIL numbers from their recent results announcement presentation.



BWX

TIL




FY16 (forecast)

FY16 (Actual)




Mln

Mln



Sales

50.1

83.1



EBITDA

17.5

16.3



NPAT

11.1

9.4



Shares on issue

90.6

72.1



EPS

$0.12

$0.13



Price (26/07)

$5.35

$4.50



P/E

44

35

[blobbles]

Thought I would grab some comparative numbers between BWX and TIL. Below are key metrics and it appears BWX has higher PE multiple attributed mainly due to higher profitability margins. And TIL margins may be dragged down by CS & Co to a larger extent (happy to be corrected on this) and hence a lower PE multiple perhaps...

Appreciate your thoughts around this and BWX numbers are from their investor presentation docs from their website and TIL numbers from their recent results announcement presentation.



BWX

TIL




FY16 (forecast)

FY16 (Actual)




Mln

Mln



Sales

50.1

83.1



EBITDA

17.5

16.3



NPAT

11.1

9.4



Shares on issue

90.6

72.1



EPS

$0.12

$0.13



Price (26/07)

$5.35

$4.50



P/E

44

35




Might want to add growth figures to help compare too...

[sb9]

Might want to add growth figures to help compare too...

Feel free to add in your input as appropriate...

[boysy]

BWX also bought a distribution company earlier on this year (smaller than Cs company I believe) however this will drag down gross margins. Last time I looked BWX and trilogy (excluding ecoya and Cs company) had the same gross margins of circa 30-40%.

[boysy]

Also that P/E ratio on BWX looks a bit light sb9

[sb9]

Also that P/E ratio on BWX looks a bit light sb9

BWX price is $5.50 as I type this one and on that basis revised PE would be 5.51/.12 - 46.

The EPS I'm working off is forecast for this year end not actual, think the FY 15 EPS is .0801 or 8.1c and on that basis with current market price of $5.50 PE works out to be 69.

Hope that helps, happy to be corrected though.

[golden city]

It looks like the reality is comming

[vin]

Thought I saw that selldown a couple of pages back.

[boysy]

3350 shares trading hands so far not exactly a stampede though let's see how the day pans out.

[winner69]

Thought I saw that selldown a couple of pages back.

Pie aren't selling

No worries

[sb9]

3350 shares trading hands so far not exactly a stampede though let's see how the day pans out.

True, just a small nervous sell off in my opinion. Wouldn't read much into that...

[golden city]

It will be those guys start selling. Selling part allocation Shares. Medium term still looking good. Just the short term hiccups

[muss1]

It looks like the reality is comming

Give it a rest mate.

The volume on the run up to 480 was something like 10-20 (maybe higher - I don't have the figures) times this minor pullback. The run up included large off market trades. This has been the pattern of TIL for a year.

In a day or a week or a month we will be pushing $5 assuming the pattern continues. Fundamentals certainly back it up. Happy to wait longer

[trader_jackson]

It looks like the reality is comming

Couldn't agree more...

[sb9]

Couldn't agree more...

Reasoning for same being????

[trader_jackson]

Reasoning for same being????

A company that doubles it's profit, can't continue to experience a run away, quadrupling, share price... we have to come back down to earth sometime

[sb9]

A company that doubles it's profit, can't continue to experience a run away, quadrupling, share price... we have to come back down to earth sometime

With respect time will tell...

[boysy]

Reason being those parties having sold out of til The opposite of post purchase dissonance I guess. As poeple have noticed the large increase are driven by off market purchases while the recent pull back has been largely driven by retail investors. This being said I think trilogy could do themselves a favour by providing an update so the market has some numbers to work off. In the meantime BWX is the proxy on the ASX showing what an asx Listing may do to the sp.

[boysy]

Unless the guidance is for profit to double again

[muss1]

A company that doubles it's profit, can't continue to experience a run away, quadrupling, share price... we have to come back down to earth sometime

What's your estimate of earnings next FY? Maybe if you did some numbers you would surprise yourself rather than saying it can't keep going up for no reason

[blobbles]

We all knew there would be some profit taking, why freak out when it happens? Tiny volume as well...

[boysy]

Got TIL on a forward PE of 16 based on the current SP on the basis revenue is $120m EBITDA of $27m and NPAT of $16m for FY2017 done the same analysis with BWX and its currently running on PE 26 on revenue $103m EBITDA $31m and NPAT of $20m based on my estimate of FY20173

Would be interested to see others valuations people have done ?

[muss1]

Got TIL on a forward PE of 16 based on the current SP on the basis revenue is $120m EBITDA of $27m and NPAT of $16m for FY2017 done the same analysis with BWX and its currently running on PE 26 on revenue $103m EBITDA $31m and NPAT of $20m based on my estimate of FY20173

Would be interested to see others valuations people have done ?

Base case
Rev 113
EBITDA 25
NPAT 16.6
EPS 24c

Bull case (still a relatively conservative bull case IMO)
Rev 118
EBITDA 28
NPAT 18.6
EPS 27c

[boysy]

Big 440 chomp on close dragged up the vwap.

[vin]

Great spike this arvo, $4.46

[sb9]

Great spike this arvo, $4.46

Make that 450 vin, wonder what was the problem in the first instance. Feel sorry for those nervous nellies who sold out earlier in the week...

[boysy]

Yep not a great trade for those who bailed at 430. This share remains illiquid on both the way up and down so I expect the lumpy rises and falls will continue to occur for the foreseeable future.

[boysy]

Interesting update from The Motley Fool on Mcphersons (http://www.mcphersons.com.au/about-us) who distribute TIL in Australia. Looks like the market is excited over the growing business MCP will obtain via growing sales of TIL in aussie.

http://www.fool.com.au/2016/07/29/is-mcphersons-ltd-a-bargain-buy-on-its-2016-results/

In 2014, McPherson’s started distributing Trilogy branded “natural” skincare products on behalf of Trilogy International Ltd which is listed in New Zealand. Trilogy’s share price is up 397.8% in the last year and its NPAT jumped 108% in 2016 on the back surging sales of its Trilogy range.

Trilogy is the top selling “natural” skincare brand in New Zealand and revenue in Australia rose 45.8% to NZ$10.5 million in 2016 through the distribution agreement with McPherson’s. Trilogy has the potential to be a key earnings driver for McPherson’s in future years given the Australian “natural” skincare segment grew by 38% in the year to 13 December 2015.

[NZSilver]

Thanks for that post Boysy - interesting stuff

[IAK]

Base case
Rev 113
EBITDA 25
NPAT 16.6
EPS 24c

Bull case (still a relatively conservative bull case IMO)
Rev 118
EBITDA 28
NPAT 18.6
EPS 27c

Hey Muss1, if I use 72.1m shares issued (post SPP) I get;

Base case
Rev 113
EBITDA 25
NPAT 16.6
Shares issued 72.1m
EPS =23c

It's all looking good but I like Noodles' EV/EBITDA approach.....


There is a market darling stock on the ASX called BWX. They have an almost identical business to TIL except they are not organic.

BWX are trading on a FY17 EV/EBITDA=16.6
TIL are trading on a FY17 EV/EBITDA=11.8 (using Analyst forecasts)

If TIL attracts the same multiple as BMX, they will be trading at $5.64

This is the main reason I think today's announcement is brilliant.


Once listed on the ASX, I can't see why TIL will trade significantly less than BWX (currently trading at $Aus 5.59)?

[boysy]

And bwx have more shares on issue circa 91m vs TIL 72m

[IAK]

And bwx have more shares on issue circa 91m vs TIL 72m

Exactly.

Disc. Holding and user of Trilogy products

[muss1]

Hey Muss1, if I use 72.1m shares issued (post SPP) I get;

Base case
Rev 113
EBITDA 25
NPAT 16.6
Shares issued 72.1m
EPS =23c

It's all looking good but I like Noodles' EV/EBITDA approach.....




Once listed on the ASX, I can't see why TIL will trade significantly less than BWX (currently trading at $Aus 5.59)?

Yes you are right. I forgot I had done something a bit different with my model. Rather than building it into my calculations (due to unknowns etc) I have added 1.5cps for the synergy from CS Co taking over the trilogy distribution contract. I've come up with this using the EBITDA the contract was worth to the previous distributor.

So Really the numbers I quoted for rev and EBITDA are probably closer to boysys

[winner69]

I'm more bullish than boysey

I reckon npat f17 will be $18.9m - eps $0.262

Remember they said some of capital raised to pay off debt - lower interest cost

[boysy]

Would be great to get a trading update but this may have to wait until the AGM In September. I think muss1 and winner69 are correct re the respective synergy from CS distribution rights and lower interest cost. You going to update that valuation winner69 ?

[boysy]

Decent off market sales at 454 of $240k good to see buying interest at these levels following recent movements. Once again BWX is up seven cents to 566 with a MC of AUD$518m (NZD $545m). Makes you wonder what a listing on the ASX could bring with TIL having 20 million fewer shares on issue but a similar product line albeit TIL being a premium product and having greater diversity of earnings through CS company and ecoya.

[boysy]

Good to see til starting to consolidate around the ~455 level. Happy for a few cent increases per week from here leading into the AGM.

[boysy]

Sizeable 100k trade at 460 off market of course

[boysy]

And another 100k on close surely for turnover of nearly $1m

[Snow Leopard]

And another 100k on close surely for turnover of nearly $1m

Man you need to relax a bit.

If we need a blow by blow account of trading then we can always use stocknessmonster (http://stocknessmonster.com/stock-quote?S=TIL&E=NZSE)or similar.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Hold TIL

[Longhaul]

If we need a blow by blow account of trading then we can always use stocknessmonster (http://stocknessmonster.com/stock-quote?S=TIL&E=NZSE)or similar.

\

Wonder if anyone has tried this over on the AIR thread?

[sb9]

Getting ready for another run up...

[boysy]

Yep .... Locked and loaded

[winner69]

You going to update that valuation winner69 ?

Not yet boysy - nothing new to add.

Trading at 25% to that valuation - probably fair enough reflecting risks in actually achieving the expectations of huge growth to continue for some years

Of my DCF valuation over 60% of it relates to what is assumed to happen 10 years and beyond.

A current $370m odd enterprise value also reflects a lot of expectations.

Like you boysy i'm not besotted to the company to the extent that i will 'invest' in it forever through good and bad. It's not that fantastic. I'm only interested as long as that squiggly line is trending up - is that how you feel as well?

[boysy]

I will remain in TIL as long as they continue to meet my revenue and profitability expectations ( personally think this could run much further on the proviso they retain marketshare in key markets while the organic skincare market grows at similar levels to current years ~25% p.a).

[muss1]

We are four months into the new FY. Last year they issued some half year guidance in early August. Surely they can't wait until the AGM to issue guidance for the HY given it is a week before the end of the period.

Any ideas on when we might expect something? More curious than anything, I'm locked and loaded and want to see how my estimate is looking

[boysy]

When you think about it they have not given a forecast as such in the first place following release of the annual results so why would they need to provide guidance. Don't get me wrong id love to see a trading update as you mentioned one was provided on the 03/08 last year. Looking forward to a Trilogy update from the US and AUS and locally how goodness sales are growing in the supermarket in particular at the AGM.

[muss1]

When you think about it they have not given a forecast as such in the first place following release of the annual results so why would they need to provide guidance. Don't get me wrong id love to see a trading update as you mentioned one was provided on the 03/08 last year. Looking forward to a Trilogy update from the US and AUS and locally how goodness sales are growing in the supermarket in particular at the AGM.


I'm not saying they need to provide guidance, it's just that recent form suggests they usually do. And 2/3 into the period they must be getting some sort of idea. I'm easy either way. US and Asia will be interesting

[boysy]

I might even pop down to the AGM to see if any additional tid bits are provided also interesting to see if any brokerage houses will be sniffing round.

[sb9]

I might even pop down to the AGM to see if any additional tid bits are provided also interesting to see if any brokerage houses will be sniffing round.

Did pop into Living & Giving store over in the weekend and noticed big display of Ecoya candle range at front entrance, think on special 20% off.

[sb9]

Looks like some big lots traded off-market at 475...can't see trades yet on SNM, 20 min delay I guess.

[boysy]

Decent finish to the day good to see it up at 475 not too far off tn he all time high I might add

[sb9]

Solid beginning to the week, might see inching close to that magic $5 mark sooner.

[boysy]

Good to see it rising a few cents a day of late. Will have to wait another 6 weeks to see how TIL sales are going. Looks like that all time high might be breached this arvo.

[vin]

There it is, $4.85.

[LAC]

Gotta love this thread, it's like a minute by minute commentary:)

[winner69]

Gotta love this thread, it's like a minute by minute commentary:)

300 shares just traded at 485

And it wasn't even off market

[Balance]

Gotta love this thread, it's like a minute by minute commentary:)

Never has a 5c movement brought so much joy to so many? :D

[LAC]

300 shares just traded at 485

And it wasn't even off market

Lol, can you imagine what is going to happen when they list on the ASX and it shoots past $5...... this will be the busiest thread on ST. SB9 and Boysy will have to dedicate a few days off work to keep up with the updates:)

[kiora]

Lol, can you imagine what is going to happen when they list on the ASX and it shoots past $5...... this will be the busiest thread on ST. SB9 and Boysy will have to dedicate a few days off work to keep up with the updates:)

Where is Roger :)

[sb9]

Lol, can you imagine what is going to happen when they list on the ASX and it shoots past $5...... this will be the busiest thread on ST. SB9 and Boysy will have to dedicate a few days off work to keep up with the updates:)

Don't worry mate, once its gets there you can take up the mantle and we'll rest easy...;)

[blobbles]

We have traded something like 0.004 shares on issue today. Not exactly a lot of movement so not really worth commenting on. Filling the thread up with meaningless weather watching drivel does not make it fun to read or easy to find the useful information on it. I hope we don't head down the hotcopper path!

Damn, I just added to the drivel.

[winner69]

Where is Roger :)

We obviously haven't been able to convince him of the unlimited potential here

Maybe he really is a dividend hound - no dividend no buy

[boysy]

Small divi available here dont forget winner69, though most here are aboard for the capital gain 😉

[Yoda]

We have traded something like 0.004 shares on issue today. Not exactly a lot of movement so not really worth commenting on. Filling the thread up with meaningless weather watching drivel does not make it fun to read or easy to find the useful information on it. I hope we don't head down the hotcopper path!

Damn, I just added to the drivel.
Well it is nice to celebrate a bit of success once in a while.... It may seem like Facebook sometimes, but this success story is worth a bit of a laugh . Is it all about useful info?
Some are making 200 -300%. Some 20%
whatever it is congrats to all.
(no useful info , sorry, ):t_up:

[Felonius]

We have traded something like 0.004 shares on issue today. Not exactly a lot of movement so not really worth commenting on. Filling the thread up with meaningless weather watching drivel does not make it fun to read or easy to find the useful information on it. I hope we don't head down the hotcopper path!

Damn, I just added to the drivel.

Couldn't agree more Blobbles. It is a very boring read at the moments.

[Balance]

Couldn't agree more Blobbles. It is a very boring read at the moments.

An ever increasing sp does that.

Much more exciting when there is wild gyrations and the sp moves all over the place.

[sb9]

For all TIL enthusiasts out there, check out BWX results released today over the ditch. Good set of numbers and impressive growth with maiden dividend declared (4.8c fully franked).

However as usual market reacted in different way, case of more expected and priced in.

[boysy]

Not sure i agree with your assessment sb9 look at the numbers closely

- BWX EPS lower than TIL - 14.1c vs 15.24c
- BWX MC ~AUD$470M (after 10% drop today) significantly higher than TIL current MC NZD$350M
- Similar growth prospects though i think TIL have a foot in the door in other markets BWX doesn't ie USA

Not comparing apples with oranges per se but TIL current PE on 2016 earnings 32x vs BWX 36x that's after today's 10% fall (and TIL's revenue growth i believe will be stronger than BWX with Trilogy/goodness growth plus full contribution from CS company over the next 12 months). Still think TIL has plenty of legs and catch up to do.

[sb9]

Not sure i agree with your assessment sb9 look at the numbers closely

- BWX EPS lower than TIL - 14.1c vs 15.24c
- BWX MC ~AUD$470M (after 10% drop today) significantly higher than TIL current MC NZD$350M
- Similar growth prospects though i think TIL have a foot in the door in other markets BWX doesn't ie USA

Not comparing apples with oranges per se but TIL current PE on 2016 earnings 32x vs BWX 36x that's after today's 10% fall (and TIL's revenue growth i believe will be stronger than BWX with Trilogy/goodness growth plus full contribution from CS company over the next 12 months). Still think TIL has plenty of legs and catch up to do.

Agree with you boysy on the EPS front, but overall its not that bad. And surely TIL compares favourably on those numbers. My point was more along the growth in industry these two operate in.

[boysy]

Well we have $5 lets just hope further good news is provided at the AGM to justify further SP gains from here.

[winner69]

Well we have $5 lets just hope further good news is provided at the AGM to justify further SP gains from here.

Was just a matter of time

On to 550 ...and then 600 eh

[winner69]

Well we have $5 lets just hope further good news is provided at the AGM to justify further SP gains from here.

What's up boysy - it's gone down to $4.75

Must be more going on than the proverbial 'profit taking' reason often given

Hope 5 bucks isn't going to be major major resistance

[muss1]

A cheeky update from the company should do it. Assuming business as usual and no worse...

[winner69]

Hope the bubble hasn't burst!

Recent price activity looking ominious

[winner69]

Looking sadder by the day

Long way from 5 bucks - where has everybody gone?

Sold out have you all?

[JayRiggs]

No way! I'm still in it.

[ShouldHaveHeld]

I am holding
no need to worry, can smell the goodness

[Southern_Belle]

No way! I'm still in it.Me too, still in the fundamentals haven't changed.

[Snow Leopard]

Still well over priced I reckon.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Hold

[janner]

Still well over priced I reckon.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Hold

Agree..

Disc. Also in same position.. Albeit not heavily.

[couta1]

Looking sadder by the day

Long way from 5 bucks - where has everybody gone?

Sold out have you all? As Karen Carpenter sung so eloquently, "It's only just begun" Low volume down days with a few bored holders selling out, nothing to see. Disc-Not selling.

[winner69]

As Karen Carpenter sung so eloquently, "It's only just begun" Low volume down days with a few bored holders selling out, nothing to see. Disc-Not selling.

Thank goodness I read the whole sentence

I first thought that you were saying 'Its only just begun' .... the collapsing share price that is and there was going to be heaps more grief to come

Please don't give me the heebie jeebies mate - just say 'nothing to see' first ...lol

[misterx]

this stock has been doing this volatile thing for quite some times now, with clear up trend. Still holding and looking forward to more good news

[pedro1]

2 new Ecoya Candle flavours being released August/September, packaging looks nice!

[Longhaul]

2 new Ecoya Candle flavours being released August/September, packaging looks nice!

Well, we would probably all agree that it's a good way to burn money :p

(Discl. I am a dirty TIL trader).

[muss1]

Just for you winner: nothing to worry about.

Volume has been tiny and a large bid/offer spread has meant big moves if you need to sell. Same as always. It works both ways and it'll be the same when people decide they want to buy.

I think we are drifting because of the lack of guidance. It looks expensive if you look at last years earnings and add 25%. It's not until you do some more detailed numbers that you realise 25% revenue increase could mean 60-80% once it hits the bottom line.

That's what is holding it back IMO. Once management gives the market some sort of update the market might realise there's a fair bit left in this. All assuming they are on track for "beating market growth rates" or whatever the exact words were.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

2 new Ecoya Candle flavours being released August/September, packaging looks nice!

Saw Ecoya Candles for sale in Copenhagen don't remember exactly where, perhaps at Magasin de Nord

[winner69]

this stock has been doing this volatile thing for quite some times now, with clear up trend. Still holding and looking forward to more good news

TIL share price volatility has been relatively low over the last 6 months

[Toulouse - Luzern]

8248

In general volumes increase so does price.
Recent days volumes are low

[sb9]

Looking sadder by the day

Long way from 5 bucks - where has everybody gone?

Sold out have you all?

All here, still holding and looking forward for further updates next month at ASM.

[muss1]

We've successfully transitioned the thread from SP cheerleading squad to TIL Holders Anonymous

[winner69]

Not looking much better than last week

Wouldn't want somebody with even 50,000 shares to sell in a hurry

Well maybe that be good - get some with a 3 in front of the price

[couta1]

Not looking much better than last week

Wouldn't want somebody with even 50,000 shares to sell in a hurry

Well maybe that be good - get some with a 3 in front of the price There's quite a few Bears having a picnic on the NZX at the moment, nothing to worry about winner, just don't feed them.

[boysy]

It will continue to tread water until the AGM in a few weeks. Still think TIL will suprise the market with the trading update happy to add to holding at this level.

[muss1]

I would be surprised if they wait until AGM for an update. 5/6th the way through H1 you would think they have a fair idea of where the numbers are heading

[jim9358]

All here, still holding and looking forward for further updates next month at ASM.

Yep am still here too watching for more opportunity (winner69): When bottom-out apparent am in for more! Shorter-MA still above longer-MA except for very short 5-day crossed 10-day 22/8 remaining that way! ... but don't think anything to worry about do you? : Anyone think it'll head below 4.50? ;-)

[couta1]

Yep am still here too watching for more opportunity (winner69): When bottom-out apparent am in for more! Shorter-MA still above longer-MA except for very short 5-day crossed 10-day 22/8 remaining that way! ... but don't think anything to worry about do you? : Anyone think it'll head below 4.50? ;-) Could easily go to $4.40 or less if bored holders decide to unload but with all the potential, seems a bit premature to sell.

[winner69]

There's quite a few Bears having a picnic on the NZX at the moment, nothing to worry about winner, just don't feed them.


Think we need to convince Roger Trilogy has huge potential and all the good things will drive the price to $6

Good for him to get involved methinks

[Beagle]

The hound has his doubts about these scented candles and bio oil thingies...no good for his super sensitive nose or soft fur, (hound waddles off to sit by his dividend food bowl).

[winner69]

Gee whiz .... close at 440

Now 12% down from it's recent high

Where will it end

I sense a share price with a 3 in front of it soon

[Everwood]

I don't care about the daily movement in the share price. I still think it is overvalued until I see updated guidance. I purchase my first lot of shares when it was still called Ecoya. I'm only holding the stock for it's dividends and future increase in dividend payments over the coming years, if they don't get bought out.

[silverblizzard888]

The thing about silence is a shareholder starts to think, panic and doubt. X)

Waiting at $4 for your shares =P

[muss1]

Exactly. And with this liquidity it doesn't take much to see a doubter sell and the price drop on small volume followed by others panicking and following suit.

will work the same the other way round too. I think its a perfectly reasonable time for an update though

[vin]

^ Exactly. Not surprised to see the fluctuation, it could be back up to $5 within a couple of weeks with an announcement.

[LAC]

Nothing has changed with this company, so will continue to hold.

[boysy]

Happy to hold awaiting the trading update in a few weeks I still recon it's going to be a ripper plus an update on the ASX listing.

[JayRiggs]

Accumulated at 4.40 to help support the share price.
I think we're expecting the ASX listing in the 2nd half of the year, so anytime now.

[percy]

Craig's have initiated coverage/research on TIL with an "overweight" recommendation,and a target price of$5.55.
With eps growth being higher than the PE, and the fact TIL are paying a divie, together [hopefully] with a nice upgrade at the agm I think we remain"well positioned.".

[winner69]

Craig's have initiated coverage/research on TIL with an "overweight" recommendation,and a target price of$5.55.
Looks to me as though there will be a pleasant earnings upgrade at the agm.

Heck .....only $5.55

I reckon they 'discounted' their real valuation so as to not get everybody excited

And Rogers missing out on this - doesn't like snake oil or something

[vin]

Craig's have initiated coverage/research on TIL with an "overweight" recommendation,and a target price of$5.55.
With eps growth being higher than the PE, and the fact TIL are paying a divie, together with a nice upgrade at the agm I think we remain"well positioned.".

Agreed, if it heads any lower I'll be topping up

[boysy]

Can someone post a link will be good to see the assumptions

[winner69]

Can someone post a link will be good to see the assumptions
I think you will need to be a Craig's client to see those

[stevevai1983]

I am not worry about recent SP drop.
The liquidity is very poor for this stock. Sometimes retailer investors buy/sell 3~5k shares can cause the SP rise/drop even 2%...
We only need to care about the actual company performance. Can they get 30%+ increase in profit/ebitda excluding CS?

[muss1]

Looks like a few people have taken their advice. 20k shares for 6%. Just like it was the other way round.

I assume CIPs talked to management so good to see they are forecasting good growth. Not as high as most sharetraders, but we are allowed to be a little less conservative so not surprising

[jim9358]

5.55 would be awesome! be hard for me to resist topping up CMA with good part of holding ;-)

[Poaix]

Team, I have read the brokers report from Craigs. A few points I picked up

- the DCF valuation does not factor in the potential growth in China. The upside to this is potentially unlimited.
- the contrary to the above is that all products in this industry must be tested on animals which TIL is against, creating a sort of friction.
- the alternative to this is that individual sellers are selling on their "trademe" equivalent platforms as well as through Hong Kong.
- given the limited exposure, i.e. no flagship stores, TIL still has a strong brand image and if/when it does hit the market in China at a department store/own store level, then it could be huge.
- in conclusion that $5.49 valuation is great news and Craigs speak about it highly. I believe for TIL to go far and beyond $6.00 the investment in China as well as other countries will be the key.

Happy to hear thoughts!

[winner69]

Team, I have read the brokers report from Craigs. A few points I picked up

- the DCF valuation does not factor in the potential growth in China. The upside to this is potentially unlimited.
- the contrary to the above is that all products in this industry must be tested on animals which TIL is against, creating a sort of friction.
- the alternative to this is that individual sellers are selling on their "trademe" equivalent platforms as well as through Hong Kong.
- given the limited exposure, i.e. no flagship stores, TIL still has a strong brand image and if/when it does hit the market in China at a department store/own store level, then it could be huge.
- in conclusion that $5.49 valuation is great news and Craigs speak about it highly. I believe for TIL to go far and beyond $6.00 the investment in China as well as other countries will be the key.

Happy to hear thoughts!

Love your use of words like unlimited and huge

I implicitly haven't factored anything like unlimited and huge into my DCF and I get a valuation (not a future target) more than $5.55

Wish they wouldn't spend so much on those stupid candles though

[winner69]

If TIL ever gets to to the ASX it could do a MHJ and almost double in price

Doesn't 10 bucks havea nice ring to it?

[Poaix]

Love your use of words like unlimited and huge

I implicitly haven't factored anything like unlimited and huge into my DCF and I get a valuation (not a future target) more than $5.55

Wish they wouldn't spend so much on those stupid candles though


haha yes you are right. I am getting over excited.

I think to put things in perspective, there are "small" cities in China that are larger than the whole of New Zealand. I have some personal experience in this and feel that the potential is genuinely "huge"

[sb9]

Good stuff there poaix...

ASM in 2 weeks time would give us bit more updated information in terms revenue and upcoming ASX listing.

[jim9358]

Team, I have read the brokers report from Craigs. A few points I picked up

- the DCF valuation does not factor in the potential growth in China. The upside to this is potentially unlimited.
- the contrary to the above is that all products in this industry must be tested on animals which TIL is against, creating a sort of friction.
- the alternative to this is that individual sellers are selling on their "trademe" equivalent platforms as well as through Hong Kong.
- given the limited exposure, i.e. no flagship stores, TIL still has a strong brand image and if/when it does hit the market in China at a department store/own store level, then it could be huge.
- in conclusion that $5.49 valuation is great news and Craigs speak about it highly. I believe for TIL to go far and beyond $6.00 the investment in China as well as other countries will be the key.

Happy to hear thoughts!

I guess TIL are smart enough to post the fact to China authority that their products have a track record of safe use on humans = animal tested!!!
...but need verifiable records I guess of tens thousands customers and any or levels of come-back to Retailers of negative reactions! Worth doing but worth being straight up with China with data of "events" or if it went wrong in China later with out-break of health problems, China could destroy TIL !!!

Personally I hate concept of animal testing labs: I saw what a New York lab did to Chimpanzees, THIS YEAR, discarding them to an island to stave to death but for luck of an animal lover accidentally finding them. Half the Chimps have psychoses!

They're building one here at OU !!! Aaaarrrgghh !

[muss1]

Craig's FY17 estimated numbers are all a bit lower than mine. My numbers were based on some reasonable "market growth rate" assumptions. And that's only my base case and not the best guess case which I think is more likely. For reference my numbers are (I've tweaked my numbers a bit recently):

Base
rev: 113.5m
EBITDA: 25.2m
NPAT: 16.4m
EPS: 23c

Best guess
rev: 118.6m
EBITDA: 27.1m
NPAT: 17.8m
EPS: 25c

If USA, UK,or Asia gets some traction then my numbers might be a bit low. NZ/Aus based on "market growth rates" of 20-30% for base case and slightly better for best guess (for natural products). For Ecoya I've assumed 10-20% growth.

[LAC]

Mine was
rev: 128.5m
NPAT: 16.9m
EPS:23c

[muss1]

Mine was
rev: 128.5m
NPAT: 16.9m
EPS:23c

Are you picking EBITDA margin to contract due to marketing etc? I like the revenue number

[LAC]

I just used that EBITDA because I think TIL will start aggressive sales to try and keep up with the growth which for me is not sustainable. Buy 1 get 1 free type of marketing will eat into it as well.

[boysy]

will be interesting to see at the AGM what details they will provide re growth and strategy going forward. Would be good to see continued growth for the goodness brand and Ecoya in general we don't want this to be a Trilogy brand only growth story.

[winner69]

will be interesting to see at the AGM what details they will provide re growth and strategy going forward. Would be good to see continued growth for the goodness brand and Ecoya in general we don't want this to be a Trilogy brand only growth story.

Ecoya is a drag on performance - better to put that effort and resources into things that can make this a billion dollar company - candles won't do it

[muss1]

I just used that EBITDA because I think TIL will start aggressive sales to try and keep up with the growth which for me is not sustainable. Buy 1 get 1 free type of marketing will eat into it as well.

They stated they were ramping up the sales aggression last year so it has already effected margins. They still managed to improve them though. Will be interesting to see how it effects margins this year. Good to have differing views to discuss

[LAC]

Personal view: I think candles need to go, maybe they can come to SH again in a year or 2 for more capital to help with liquidity and maybe get a few good acquisitions which are earning accretive from day one, also for diversification as well. Trilogy is great but the growth is just not sustainable imo, would like to hear where people think TIL would be in 6-10years.

[Snow Leopard]

Personal view: I think candles need to go, maybe they can come to SH again in a year or 2 for more capital to help with liquidity and maybe get a few good acquisitions which are earning accretive from day one, also for diversification as well. Trilogy is great but the growth is just not sustainable imo, would like to hear where people think TIL would be in 6-10years.

In 3 years time the SP will be $7.00 and EPS $0.30 and the future is looking bright :);

In 6 years time the SP will be $4.50 and EPS $0.30 and the company is back on track :mellow:;

In 9 years time the SP will be $3.30 and EPS $0.30 and is a dividend yield job :(.


Personally, I never know which country I will be living in in 12 months time :ohmy:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc 1: Even on a small blue/green planet many things are possible
Disc 2: Hold

[muss1]

Personal view: I think candles need to go, maybe they can come to SH again in a year or 2 for more capital to help with liquidity and maybe get a few good acquisitions which are earning accretive from day one, also for diversification as well. Trilogy is great but the growth is just not sustainable imo, would like to hear where people think TIL would be in 6-10years.

Im with PT here. The next year or so look pretty good from a growth and valuation perspective. Assuming things are tracking as expected of course. Looking any further ahead I would be straight out guessing if I'm honest. I will monitor growth and valuation closely and continually reevaluate with the plan of avoiding PT's 6 and 9 year scenario.

Being bought out is possible. Making it big in the US/Asia is possible. Rosehip going out of fashion is possible.

[kiora]

In 3 years time the SP will be $7.00 and EPS $0.30 and the future is looking bright :);

In 6 years time the SP will be $4.50 and EPS $0.30 and the company is back on track :mellow:;

In 9 years time the SP will be $3.30 and EPS $0.30 and is a dividend yield job :(.


Personally, I never know which country I will be living in in 12 months time :ohmy:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc 1: Even on a small blue/green planet many things are possible
Disc 2: Hold

But wait!Do they have a rabbit in the bag ?;)

[Brain]

But wait!Do they have a rabbit in the bag ?;)

Maybe the do have a rabbit in the bag. But maybe it's a cat instead and PT has just let it out.

[sb9]

Noticed an article behind pay wall on NBR today, an analyst from Craigs putting their seal of approval going by the headline, could someone summarise the details pls.

[Poaix]

deleted by STMOD

NEVER copy and paste paywalled articles.

[misterx]

https://soundcloud.com/nbr-radio/trilogy-gets-first-stamp-of-approval-from-analysts

Im sure this one is O.K. as this has free access.

[muss1]

I like the "in Japan the trilogy brand is bordering on cult status" part

[boysy]

continuing to buy at these levels still think the ASX listing will be a catalyst for a rerate when it will be compared to BWX (albeit TIL having better revenue and greater diversification than BWX). Still trading at circa 30% below BWX MC bring on the AGM

[NZSilver]

When is the listing going to occur - have we actually been given some dates?

[winner69]

continuing to buy at these levels still think the ASX listing will be a catalyst for a rerate when it will be compared to BWX (albeit TIL having better revenue and greater diversification than BWX). Still trading at circa 30% below BWX MC bring on the AGM

On my F17 forecast for TIL and using BWX guidance of 30% increase in EBITDA I reckon the gap is at least 40% (TIL comparable price today $6.43) if both were to trade on same multiples.

Add a bit more for TIL being a better bet should be even more eh

ASX listing - sooner the better. Hope they getting their butts into gear

I reckon even Roger is getting interested - he just loves these profitable strong growth companies.

[winner69]

One thing if ASX instos get buying I'm sure they will be 'pointing out' to TIL that they would be better off not putting much more effort into candles

[winner69]

One thing if ASX instos get buying I'm sure they will be 'counselling' TIL that they would be better off (increase their value) by not putting much more effort into candles

[boysy]

Think plenty of bagging candles has gone on here lets wait to see a trading update my bet gross margins is increasing for the ecoya products than anything else TIL. Like your >$6 plus valuation winner would be good for the market to catch up a bit but happy buying around the 4.50 level this week will seem very cheap in a few weeks me thinks.

[boysy]

plug in the herald i missed on friday

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11703770

Sweet scent
Craigs Investment Partners remains bullish on Trilogy International shares, despite the meteoric run-up they've had over the past couple of years.

The sharebroker's private wealth arm initiated coverage of the skincare products and scented candle stock this month with a "overweight" rating and a $5.55 one-year price target.

Shares in Trilogy, whose brands include Ecoya, closed unchanged yesterday at $4.50.

Craigs analyst Nachi Moghe is forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 18.5 per cent in revenue and 23.4 per cent earnings-per-share growth over the next five years.

Trilogy's balance sheet was in good shape, with "negligible" debt levels following a recent $25m capital raising, he said in a research note.

Moghe said that, coupled with strong profit growth and solid cash flows, meant there was potential for Trilogy to pursue "capital management initiatives" or acquisitions.

Big opportunity
China, meanwhile, is a big growth opportunity for Trilogy, Moghe said.

Craigs estimates that up to 10 per cent of the products Trilogy sells in Australasia end up in Asia's biggest economy via the so-called Daigou channels, which involve goods being purchased overseas for re-sale in China.

Moghe said the company was in discussions with Alibaba's Tmall and JD.com around establishing dedicated online shopfronts "which in our view would dramatically increase sales to China".

It's worth noting, however, that China can be a fickle market, particularly for companies like Trilogy that largely rely on third parties to sell product there.

Businesses can easily be broken by regulatory changes; a case in point being the fallout from an infant formula brand registration requirement, which came into force in May 2014, which resulted in many small-scale New Zealand baby-milk exporters going under.

A recently introduced e-commerce tax has also been putting pressure on China's cross border online retail market.

[sb9]

Well, exactly a week to go until ASM next Thursday....wonder how the numbers are looking for a trading update.

[winner69]

Well, exactly a week to go until ASM next Thursday....wonder how the numbers are looking for a trading update.

Could well be a wipe out if any update is not good

Bit of a worry

[winner69]

Last year they gave us good news in August and then even better news on day of ASM

This year the silence has been deafening ...hmmm

[sb9]

Last year they gave us good news in August and then even better news on day of ASM

This year the silence has been deafening ...hmmm

I'm sure its all on track, they're too busy going on about their business plus upcoming ASX listing....burning the midnight oil (candles)!!!

[boysy]

Still buying at these levels no need for a trading update if you haven't provided guidance in the first place me thinks winner69.

[boysy]

Good to see see a small jump today in anticipation AGM next week. while remaining illiquid good to see the buys starting to strengen in the last few trading sessions. My money's on TIL out performing the market in the past 6 months on the strength of strong operating performance across all brands over ththe past 6 months and an update re timing of an ASX listing in the short term.would be good to see other brokerage firms picking the up on the story in due course following the results.

[boysy]

Good to see the buy debt building and sell depth thinning out in anticipation of the AGM. Might be the last chance to pick these up if they have maintained last years growth level.

[winner69]

Ausbil no longer a SSH

Their holding been diluted from issue of new shares

Happens to the best of us

[boysy]

Looks like something's starting to cook a few days before the AGM looks like most of the sell depth will be taken out on open st this stage

[muss1]

Final day to place bets... looking forward to tomorrow's update

[Blendy]

Is anyone going to the AGM tomorrow? I will be there. Are they live streaming it, or would people be interested if I live blogged it here?

[ShouldHaveHeld]

Is anyone going to the AGM tomorrow? I will be there. Are they live streaming it, or would people be interested if I live blogged it here?

I would be interested in reading it here :)

[jim9358]

Is anyone going to the AGM tomorrow? I will be there. Are they live streaming it, or would people be interested if I live blogged it here?

Yes! sure would be grateful if you could be bothered with the hassle: Or, even a brief personal written summary after be appreciated.

Feeling a tension in the air on this one! :t_up:

[Jinx]

Feeling a tension in the air on this one! :t_up:

With 0 guidance and the last word on the future outlook being "We will continue to out-perform the market in FY17" I have a feeling the news tomorrow is going to be an absolute banger!

[jim9358]

With 0 guidance and the last word on the future outlook being "We will continue to out-perform the market in FY17" I have a feeling the news tomorrow is going to be an absolute banger!

yeah it's exciting, only question for me is do i put in a sell trying to predict the eliza macartney bar height in order to make my CMA (cash) look better? ;-)

[forest]

Hi Blendy, I will be at the AGM with mrs Forest. I will look out for you and have a little chat.

[Blendy]

Lovely! See you there Forest!
And the rest of you, stand by for my live blog of the AGM :)

[jim9358]

Lovely! See you there Forest!
And the rest of you, stand by for my live blog of the AGM :)

Enjoy :t_up: ...bated breath

[boysy]

Well asx listing by the end of October looks like they are being conservative for the FY result by the looks of it (hope so anyway)

[Blendy]

There are 1200 shareholders / brand ambassadors for Trilogy products.

Lovely products on display to test. I would have bought some if they were for sale! But I'll find retail outlets this afternoon.

[Blendy]

key events this year:
ASX listing by end October
Rosehip supplier acquisition
Capital raising

(All things we know)

[Blendy]

FY16 will always be considered a stand out year

[Blendy]

The revenue from distribution (CS&co acquisition) is worth more than revenue from Ecoya

[Blendy]

New Rosehip range released in October.

Driving more market share in NZ and Australia via distribution.

China and Korea are key markets, but can't be registered in China as they require animal testing but TIL are against this. Partnering with a company that can help with sales in this area.

[Blendy]

They want to own the new Chia seed market, just as they do with Rosehip.

That's a good focus, I feel.

[stevevai1983]

little bit disappoint about the F17 guidance. my own estimates was 117m.
F17 100~110m means if we exclude CS&Co there is not much growth left..

[Snow Leopard]

AGM stuff: https://nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/289571

Forecasts: https://nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/289572

to complement the live streaming from our reporter at the scene.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Hope market isn't as disappointed with that guidance as I am

[Blendy]

Ecoya: focus on limited edition ranges to grow seasonal sales. Last years Christmas range contributed 10% of total revenue.

[boysy]

Yep market not liking the outlook let's hope they have undercooked the growth figures again

[Blendy]

Sustainability:
Community empowerment programs in Kenya, women's empowerment UN principles program, and also achieved carbon neutrality this year. 15% decrease target over next 5 years.

[trader_jackson]

Unfortunately, I'm not surprised to see this kind of "extremely average" guidance, combined with a "dramatic" drop in sales growth... trading at a forward PE of 16 (suppose this isn't to bad...), but with growth clearly slowing (profit might not even rise 20% in the coming year...), it is very hard to see how TIL's share price could rise from its already "lofty" highs... and keep an eye on that debt

I see the share price is now reacting accordingly

[Blendy]

Half year guidance: $47.5m, 62% increase

Full year guidance: $100-$110m, 20-32% increase

Milestone target to reach $100m

[stoploss]

Offered at $ 4.00 , what are they saying there ?

[Blendy]

Question about diversity of the board. Not entirely sure if the meant gender? I wouldn't have thought it's a problem. Maybe referring to ethnicity? Unclear question, but sensible answer that diversity is constantly reviewed.

[sb9]

Just like that all bids taken out...

[stoploss]

Not good for my PIE funds $ 2.90 best bid.

[Blendy]

Question about being an acquisition target.

Answer: not really a focus as they're growing the brand and shareholder value. Not looking for that right now.

[Blendy]

Dividend policy unchanged - 45-55% return, excluding CS&co

[BC_Doc]

What an overreaction....happy to add to the bids

[Blendy]

Geoff Ross delivers a lovely speech about why he should be reelected. He seems very clued up about branding, marketing, consumer influence etc.

[muss1]

Below my expectations, mainly due to margin. Definitely doesn't warrant the sell off. 50k shares traded is nothing. Lots to look forward to if you can look past one month out

[Blendy]

And we are done! A very pleasant meeting... And now I see the share price :/

[sb9]

Below my expectations, mainly due to margin. Definitely doesn't warrant the sell off. 50k shares traded is nothing. Lots to look forward to if you can look past one month out

Sure, wait for ASX listing in Oct.

[trader_jackson]

Oh dear next buy is at $4.01... What is happening now is very, very long overdue

[Blendy]

Ecoya candles smell really nice I must say (discl, have never bought them)

[Cricketfan]

Just bought a few more at 3.85. Hopefully this drop is an overreaction.

[trader_jackson]

Oh dear next buy is at $4.01... What is happening now is very, very long overdue

Sellers rushing in, buyers dropping out... all those institutions will be put off by this 18% or so drop in a couple minutes... next few days will be interesting, if it gets down to something more realistic, say $3, I could be tempted ;)

[stoploss]

Below my expectations, mainly due to margin. Definitely doesn't warrant the sell off. 50k shares traded is nothing. Lots to look forward to if you can look past one month out

Volume picking up 26,000 went into the 381 bid ...

[Snow Leopard]

So EPS forecast is, I calculate, approx 17.5cps up from 15.2cps (according to NZX) last year.

16.3% yoy growth.

Off to read all the words and scan all the slides and do a new valuation.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger