TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[winner69]

So that's a cool $14.4m up on the $55m of shares sold/placed/SPP at $3.70 in a few weeks!

That was July when share price went past 470

All gone now

As Mr P keep telling us 'the market giveth....but the market also taketh'

[Osake]

Does anyone think the reason for the first TIL teleconference call for 1H results at end of Nov is really for the purpose of celebrating good news?

[winner69]

Anybody able to shed some light on the NBR Shoeshine story today , behind a paywall so I haven't been able to read it . "Is Trilogy burning out ?"

Except for a few quotes from the PIE man it was a pretty negative story

Maybe the likes of Shoeshine can influence the market

We'll blame him for the collapsing share price eh

[Balance]

That was July when share price went past 470

All gone now

As Mr P keep telling us 'the market giveth....but the market also taketh'

Sobering - it took close to 5.5 months from March for the sp to go from $3.40 to $4.70 - and just one month for TIL to give up all of that gain.

Not a stock for the fainthearted amongst us?

[showstring]

the whole "organic" industry is just a fad imo
it's not really any better/healthier according to any scientific metric or research

so while that was rampant and full of hype, anything with the word "organic" was hot
but reality will eventually set in, and the fad will die down

this is imo only

[muss1]

Certainly not for the faint hearted. Valuation pretty reasonable now if we assume guidance is met and the potential one-offs aren't one-offs.

Regarding the "organic fad" - it doesn't take much scientific knowledge to get a feeling that organic products are better for you. Pumping yourself full of synthetic chemicals just doesn't feel like a particularly good idea. I'd be more worried about rosehip falling out of favour for another natural product

[winner69]

Jeez - share price in the 320's

Hope punters not believing my $3.14 valuation

Can't go much lower can it?

[winner69]

We need PIE et al to start splurging out again

That'll get the share price back to $4 plus quite quickly ......and help them in improving their returns

[BlackPeter]

Jeez - share price in the 320's

Hope punters not believing my $3.14 valuation

Can't go much lower can it?

Well, looks like the ASX listing was a fad ... as they often are.

It always can go lower (but never below NIL). Depends just on your assumptions of how to value the company.

If we assume the growth phase is over and the companies revenue is plateauing from here, than the share would be worth something like $2 (at a PE of roughly 10);

If we assume that the market will shift next year to the next hyped up fad and drops TIL products ... than the SP is obviously worth less than that.

I don't know what scents our better half's are preferring next year, but what is sure is that what goes up must come down - question is just, when. Difficult to determine the long term fundamentals of a growth company which just came into fashion ...

[sb9]

We need PIE et al to start splurging out again

That'll get the share price back to $4 plus quite quickly ......and help them in improving their returns

Wonder if the recent trading activity triggers any changes in SSH notices, that'll be interesting to watch.

[winner69]

Bottom been reached .....heading back to $4 in double quick time methinks

Jitters gone - no worries

[Beagle]

Jeez - share price in the 320's

Hope punters not believing my $3.14 valuation

Can't go much lower can it?

I think they are mate. I'm not holding or buying despite the big drop from $5. I think this one got hyped up and far to far ahead of itself. Now its basically doing a Comvita and coming back to earth.
Some won't thank me for this reference, (and I acknowledge this is a controversial thing to say) but remember how Pumpkin Patch were expanding internationally and going to take over the world ? Problem is cosmetics, smelly candle stuff and special oils are not totally unlike fashion clothes for kids, what's in vogue one minute is trumped by some new fad the next minute. No moat and plenty of other international bigger name competitors and growth slowing. Who's to say if this isn't the next big "it" product http://tanphysics.com/info/tab1.php?utm_source=AU&utm_medium=TAB-DESK&utm_content=AU-TAB-DESK-OCT5-H39-GREEN&utm_campaign=OCT5&keyword=AU-TAB-DESK-OCT5-H39-GREEN
Haven't we seen this movie before ?

[Cricketfan]

I think they are mate. I'm not holding or buying despite the big drop from $5. I think this one got hyped up and far to far ahead of itself. Now its basically doing a Comvita and coming back to earth.
Some won't thank me for this reference, (and I acknowledge this is a controversial thing to say) but remember how Pumpkin Patch were expanding internationally and going to take over the world ? Problem is cosmetics, smelly candle stuff and special oils are not totally unlike fashion clothes for kids, what's in vogue one minute is trumped by some new fad the next minute. No moat and plenty of other international bigger name competitors and growth slowing. Who's to say if this isn't the next big "it" product http://tanphysics.com/info/tab1.php?utm_source=AU&utm_medium=TAB-DESK&utm_content=AU-TAB-DESK-OCT5-H39-GREEN&utm_campaign=OCT5&keyword=AU-TAB-DESK-OCT5-H39-GREEN
Haven't we seen this movie before ?

Yep, pretty much my thoughts back in Jan:


My concern with TIL is that like Pumpkin Patch and Moa, it's a consumer brand whose popularity may be short-lived. At least those other companies offer something with a tangible difference and are more difficult for a competitor to replicate so if they did take off, customers are less likely to switch. But home fragrances and beauty products? Dunno.

[BlackPeter]

Bottom been reached .....heading back to $4 in double quick time methinks

Jitters gone - no worries

5 cents up on light trading - are you sure that this is a reliable method to recognise the bottom?

[muss1]

Just for the record - there is no evidence of these pumpkin patch type scenarios playing out yet. Only a drop in share price that has played heavily on the emotions.

It's a bit early to be talking about it as though ones prediction a while back has proved correct! It may prove correct, but let's wait a couple of years before we announce the winner.

[winner69]

5 cents up on light trading - are you sure that this is a reliable method to recognise the bottom?

Possibly one of those panic sellers

Reasonable volume on way up - and a 7% swing from the low

Surely the bottom?

[winner69]

Hey BP - look at those recent 'off market' buys boosting the price.

[boysy]

interesting trading pattern over the past few days as TIL has been hammered the VWAP is significantly above the closing price, looks to be retail holders selling down that has lead to the sharp drop the lack of updated holding notice would lend support to this scenario unless we get a updated holding notice by COB Friday. Hard to see why buyers on the ASX are buying BWX over TIL but we will leave that discrepancy to brokers to explain in due course. Need to see a sustained rally to say the worst is behind us.

[sb9]

Just for the record - there is no evidence of these pumpkin patch type scenarios playing out yet. Only a drop in share price that has played heavily on the emotions.

It's a bit early to be talking about it as though ones prediction a while back has proved correct! It may prove correct, but let's wait a couple of years before we announce the winner.

Couldn't agree more. Its bit harsh and short sighted to compare TIL to the likes of Pumpkin Patch.

For a start, TIL aren't spending recklessly by opening retail stores in AUS, US and UK like PPL did, which is where they lost business direction and they did this by taking on lots of debt. In contrast TIL used proceeds from recent SPP to acquire holding in Spanish company and to pay off debt, which is very good business acumen from the board.

And am sure the recent trading pattern has put the board and management on alert re their future prospects and they'll be working that much harder to justify shareholder value.

[winner69]

And am sure the recent trading pattern has put the board and management on alert re their future prospects and they'll be working that much harder to justify shareholder value.

Subscribed capital to June last was $33m - current market cap $250m - thats a huge increase in shareholder value. Well done - can't do much better than that.

Mind you recent capital raises aren't in the money

[Southern_Belle]

Alternative scenario to play out ..... TIL sold to bigger cosmetic company. Geoff Ross has been down this track before with Absolute Vodka. Watching to see how this volatility plays out.

Disc ..Holder

[winner69]

A speeding ticket - what a laugh, and waste of time.

Good to know they are fully compliant

[boysy]

Im sure this has noting to do with a email i sent to the company and the NZX yesterday relating to TIL meeting continuous disclose rules. As you mentioned winner69 good to clarify they remain compliant either way.

[boysy]

Think you might of confused 42 below there southern belle was sold to barcadi way back when

[muss1]

Alternative scenario to play out ..... TIL sold to bigger cosmetic company. Geoff Ross has been down this track before with Absolute Vodka. Watching to see how this volatility plays out.

Disc ..Holder

i was going to mention that this scenario is just as likely as pumpkin patch. Maybe someone is driving the price down to stage a takeover, who knows.

Please note - that is purely speculation and based on no evidence. Just another theory

[Southern_Belle]

Think you might of confused 42 below there southern belle was sold to barcadi way back whenNot confused boysy. Geoff Ross has solid experience in growing a global brand and selling it, as you point out it was sold to Bacardi back in the day. He was chairman of Ecoya which bought Trilogy.... my point was that using his experience they repeat the process of growing a global brand to sell to a bigger company ....... just a thought that I have had in the back of my mind when I bought in to Trilogy.

[boysy]

minor plug in motley fools stock picks for november 16 for TIL

http://www.fool.com.au/2016/11/01/top-stock-picks-for-november-3/

Regan Pearson: Trilogy International Limited FPO NZX (ASX: TIL)

Luxury cosmetics producer Trilogy International is a new addition to the ASX, being added last month as an extension of its listing in New Zealand.

The company expects revenue growth of between 20%-32% for the 12 months to 31 March 2017, yet sells for an undemanding 24x trailing earnings. This compares favourably to fellow ASX-listed cosmetics company BWX, which currently sells for 37x trailing earnings and has a similar sales growth rate anticipated for FY17, according to average analysts’ estimates from Reuters.

Motley Fool contributor Regan Pearson has no financial interest in Trilogy International.

[Southern_Belle]

Think you might of confused 42 below there southern belle was sold to barcadi way back whenJust re-read that post boysy ....apologies Yes I did mean 42 Below

[boysy]

Morningstar has put a 4 page valuation together dated today as per below

http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/analysis-report?t=XNZE:TIL&region=nzl&culture=en-US&productcode=MLE&cur=

[winner69]

Morningstar has put a 4 page valuation together dated today as per below

http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/analysis-report?t=XNZE:TIL®ion=nzl&culture=en-US&productcode=MLE&cur=

Whew ....the last 3 pages were really heavy reading

[co0p]

Brief plug for Ecoya's Christmas candle in Vogue

http://www.vogue.co.uk/gallery/10-best-christmas-candles-2016

[Balance]

Whew ....the last 3 pages were really heavy reading

The 'best' parts which essentially say that:

1. The information contained in the report is completely useless,

2. As it is prepared to obtain fees and entice trading/investment,

3. The analyst and the firm bear no responsibility (legal or otherwise, in any shape or form whatsoever)?

[winner69]

Not confused boysy. Geoff Ross has solid experience in growing a global brand and selling it, as you point out it was sold to Bacardi back in the day. He was chairman of Ecoya which bought Trilogy.... my point was that using his experience they repeat the process of growing a global brand to sell to a bigger company ....... just a thought that I have had in the back of my mind when I bought in to Trilogy.

The Business Bakery Boys will have their eyes on an exit one day ...as you suggest their modus operandi

Taken a fair chunk out already. Maybe a bit disappointed how its gone on the ASX which they may have eyed as a way to quit a few more

Betcha they shopping around and hoping they find something before Trilogy gets too mature

[winner69]

That BWX share price sure is collapsing - down another 5%

Doing it's best to close that 'value gap'

[kizame]

All high value P/E stocks getting hammered on both sides of the tasman it seems.

[boysy]

Winner69 BWX needs to fall a further >15% to be priced on a similar forward PE basis to TIL.

Good to see a bit more volume starting to come back on the buy side.

[winner69]

Maybe only 20% discount based on ebitda multiples - 17.9 v 14.3 forward guidance. Used ebita as those are the common guidance numbers given

TIL guidance $21m (or $19m which would make gap smaller) / BWX forecast $20.2m plus 'expected 30%' they said

Still richly valued but heaps of growth built in.

But I only in it for share price growth - take it as long as it increases

That was Oct 10th

The gap is widening

On the same basis BWX now has to fall 26% at current share price

Not fair is it

BWX down 10% but TIL down 16% since that post

This 'value gap' is just a fallacy ..or wishful thinking?

[boysy]

Some games being played on the close of trading the last few days looks to be one party's buying up into close then removing bids after close. Seems to be the retail holders selling early in the morning are driving down the price on minimal volume while the substantial buying takes place after lunch.

Plenty of shares changing hands in the past few trading sessions ,who's buying and who's selling is the question.

[sb9]

That was Oct 10th

The gap is widening

On the same basis BWX now has to fall 26% at current share price

Not fair is it

BWX down 10% but TIL down 16% since that post

This 'value gap' is just a fallacy ..or wishful thinking?

Hey winner, BWX doing its best to narrow the value gap getting close to with a 3 in front of sp.

We tht BWX will be the catalyst to push TIL up in value but looks like its doing the opposite.

[boysy]

BWX still has a way to fall still trading at a hefty premium to TIL. Good to see some but depth returning one has to remember lack of liquidity helped this fall so drastically could the trend reverse if HRC seals the deal on Wednesday NZ time

[winner69]

Hey winner, BWX doing its best to narrow the value gap getting close to with a 3 in front of sp.

We tht BWX will be the catalyst to push TIL up in value but looks like its doing the opposite.

Gap 15% from TIL to BWX on guided ebitda multiples

Gap doesn't seem to change that much

Maybe we have to expect there will always be a gap - Australian companies generally valued higher than NZ ones, home country bias, BWX seen as a better long prospect or whatever

[winner69]

Wish Hilary would come out and say she uses rosehip syrup to keep her skin in good shape - Trilogy rosehip stuff of course

Than maybe not such a good idea

[winner69]

Here is how the 'valuation gap' has changed over the last month or so

Todays fall closed the gap to 15% (TIL underpriced relative to BWX on ebitda multiples)

The biggest impact has been that TIL has had a shock(?) profit downgrade whereas BWX have stuck with their guidance.

This is in addition to other reasons I stated why we may have to live with TIL being undervalued relative to BWX - Australian companies generally valued higher than NZ ones, home country bias, BWX seen as a better long prospect or whatever else

[boysy]

Good buying interest with lack of liquidity forcing up the SP at present up 14% off recent intraday lows. Will be interested to see how the day ends.

[Balance]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3941454/Kate-Middleton-recommended-organic-Botox-Michelle-Obama.html

"Biotulin Supreme Skin Gel" - Duchess of Cambridge latest skincare tip. Watch the sales take off.

[BlackPeter]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3941454/Kate-Middleton-recommended-organic-Botox-Michelle-Obama.html

"Biotulin Supreme Skin Gel" - Duchess of Cambridge latest skincare tip. Watch the sales take off.

You mean the fickle beauty money might be redirected from TIL to a newer fad? This can't be good for holders ...:eek2:

[sb9]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3941454/Kate-Middleton-recommended-organic-Botox-Michelle-Obama.html

"Biotulin Supreme Skin Gel" - Duchess of Cambridge latest skincare tip. Watch the sales take off.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=11749741

[winner69]

Looks like it stuck at 350 odd .....for some time

Half year this week?

Bit worried - hope good news as there could be some panic meaning share price might tank.

That ASX listing an anti-climax

[boysy]

Winner not much upside factored into the current share price however as you mention negative result could send this lower again with the recent price query I don't think the results a standout or a stinker ....

[winner69]

Last year H1 announcement was on 25th

Hope we not heading to one of these infamous 5pm Friday afternoon announcements when bad news released in the hope punters won't notice.

[sb9]

Last year H1 announcement was on 25th

Hope we not heading to one of these infamous 5pm Friday afternoon announcements when bad news released in the hope punters won't notice.

https://nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/290714

H1 results due out on 29th Nov with conf call scheduled at 10am...

[winner69]

https://nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/290714

H1 results due out on 29th Nov with conf call scheduled at 10am...

Thanks

Puts XRO in good light - their report was out weeks ago

[boysy]

Well with a recent please explain from the nzx can't be too good or bad news by the looks of it. Next to no liquidity on the way up not sure what to read of that.

[trader_jackson]

https://nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/293465

Haven't posted in a while, but after seeing these thought I'd give my very breif take..

Margins falling, EPS the same, operating cash flows getting worse, Admin costs up 45%, but at least debt is down a bit...
When's the next capital raising? At this rate, looks like around 6 months time (makes PEB and AFT look like stars ;))

I'm sure others will be able to explain key ratios getting worse, but doesn't look much of a growth stock on the face of it...

[boysy]

Trader Jackson did you read the report why would they need a CR they are making a profit in the less profitable half of the year even with a number of extra ordinary items as broken down. lets see what the market thinks of the report ...

[winner69]

Maybe solid result but I wouldn't be as enthusiastic as Angela

Pity about the candles - still a real drag on performance - time they went. Even the commentary seems to be apologetic about having candles.

Negative cash flow of $5.5 (excluding acquisitions) doesn't look good

Spose we need to hope that Xmas sales season will be a boomer eh

[winner69]

Trader Jackson did you read the report why would they need a CR they are making a profit in the less profitable half of the year even with a number of extra ordinary items as broken down. lets see what the market thinks of the report ...

Not so good so far

Worry, if I dumped what I left share price might fall to $2.50 or less

Hope here be a few 'off market' lurkers awaiting

[trader_jackson]

Not so good so far

Worry, if I dumped what I left share price might fall to $2.50 or less

Hope here be a few 'off market' lurkers awaiting

Good point boysy, lets see what the market thinks... currently down nearly 7%, lowest since March-ish

No worries, that ASX listing will see a big re-rating, liquidity increase dramatically, with all the smart aussie insto's lining up to buy any moment now, right?
You could say, all will be hunky dory ;)
(Maybe my $3 target is a bit generous?)

[couta1]

Glad I followed my Gutometer and sold out at around $4.10.

[Beagle]

Glad I followed my Gutometer and sold out at around $4.10.

Nice timing, Hoop I feel would be reasonably proud of you on this occasion. There was a clear head and shoulders pattern and you sold just after it went down through the 100 day MA after the confirmation of right shoulder. My motto for 2017, pay more attention to technical analysis, (adjusted for anomalous factors) :) Report didn't impress and a confirmed downtrend is perfectly evident to me.
Good luck to holders.

[boysy]

Trader Jackson it's a bit alarmist to note the need for a CR when they have undrawn debt facilities of over $20m combined with the trade receivables figures verse trade payables outstanding.

They landed right on the forecast and have reaffirmed the FY forecast , margin compression was noted in advance heading into the business end of the year things are about as they forecasted.

[BlackPeter]

Trader Jackson it's a bit alarmist to note the need for a CR when they have undrawn debt facilities of over $20m combined with the trade receivables figures verse trade payables outstanding.

They landed right on the forecast and have reaffirmed the FY forecast , margin compression was noted in advance heading into the business end of the year things are about as they forecasted.

Not really a point in defending a stock in a downtrend. Market is clearly disappointed and sells out.

After passing the Death Cross and SP well below the MA200 is it hard to oversee that the party is over. Sure, individuals might want to stay for various reasons, but it normally is an expensive experience to bet against the market. Surely there must be better place to store the money than in a dropping stock.

[winner69]

Revenues $47.8m were $18.4m higher than H116

CS revenues were $18.8m - so old Trilogy businesses effectively went backwards

Somewhat worried

[Beagle]

Wonder what Noodles thinks ? Last time we met up for an Auckland ST meeting earlier this year he was super excited about TIL and thought it had huge potential. Me...I could never get very excited about smelly things and lotions and potions that are supposed to be the fountain of youth. Too "new age" for my liking. I see 88% of their sales are still to Australia and N.Z....hardly taking the whole world by a storm is it...

[trader_jackson]

Well finished at $4.05, a stock that is use to 'only going up' with 'ever increasing ambitions' down 12.9% on the back of a few words in just an hour or so of trading... imagine if those words really did 'come true' and the actual result showed sales really were slowing (and slowing down fast...) in fact imagine if they missed their already "extremly average" lower end forecast?

Scary times, time will tell if the price has stabilised ... good luck to the holders (and well done to those who got in a 3.8x... I'd sell now while you are still in the green;))

Not advice, just thoughts

Well, here we are, just over 2 months after I fired a warning shot, and the share price is $3.30, down 8.6% for the day (so far)...

I said many months back TIL have a nearly non-existent economic moat (eg candles are not hard to make) and as winner69 has mentioned, looks like their sales went down in the 'legacy' business... 'growth' by acquisition and capital raises?

Again, good luck to the holders.

[stevevai1983]

Very bad result.
I am glad i sold all my TIL at CR price 3.7 and changed to i consider more conservative stocks IFT and ARV.

Now my valuation for TIL is 2.6~3$...

[winner69]

Roger - there's a fair bit of normalisation/ if only involved - and a few little 1's to point to the explanations

Take all those into account it's all honky dory

Noodles will say no worries - i am somewhat worried

But share price will be back to 4 bucks before Christmas

[couta1]

Wonder what Noodles thinks ? Last time we met up for an Auckland ST meeting earlier this year he was super excited about TIL and thought it had huge potential. Me...I could never get very excited about smelly things and lotions and potions that are supposed to be the fountain of youth. Too "new age" for my liking. I see 88% of their sales are still to Australia and N.Z....hardly taking the whole world by a storm is it... The trouble with products like Til cosmetics is that they are very expensive and have a small market catchpool due to their price(I can buy it at wholesale price and it's still expensive in comparison to its competitors) Sukin products whilst not organic still don't contain any parabens or other general nasties and for most people that is all they are looking for, sure celebrities and the wealthy are more than happy to pay the money but they are in the minority. Disc-Dont use Til but do use Sukin daily.

[winner69]

Jeez that candle division is a waste of effort

Stuff all growth - not even a 4% ebitda margin and contributed $339j ebitda in H1

Put that effort into something worth while

Forget the company was founded on candles and ditch them. ecoya without trilogy valued at 10 cents a share?

[Balance]

Trader Jackson did you read the report why would they need a CR they are making a profit in the less profitable half of the year even with a number of extra ordinary items as broken down. lets see what the market thinks of the report ...

Punch drunk from the capital raisings (and the one to come) from PEB, I suspect.

[trader_jackson]

Punch drunk from the capital raisings (and the one to come) from PEB, I suspect.

Yes, the ARV one recently was very nice to take part in ;), (glad ARV is finally coming onto a few people's radars, while it would seem TIL is going off a few...)

[Beagle]

Jeez that candle division is a waste of effort

Stuff all growth - not even a 4% ebitda margin and contributed $339j ebitda in H1

Put that effort into something worth while

Forget the company was founded on candles and ditch them. ecoya without trilogy valued at 10 cents a share?

Some friends of Mr and Mrs hound import cheap nice smelling candles from China and sell them online here. They do pretty well out of them for a small home based business. I'm told all restaurants want is the cheapest candles that look okay. My nephew who owns one of the cafe's that made the top fifty Metro list here in Auckland...all I hear from him is about buying the cheapest cuts of meat and cooking them creatively and drizzling special sauce like its some sort of art form. He's one of their customers. Often times cheap and cheerful is best and as Couta1 suggested as long as there's no nasty's in it most people just want a simple moisturiser or whatever to make their skin feel smooth and young.

[co0p]

Revenues $47.8m were $18.4m higher than H116

CS revenues were $18.8m - so old Trilogy businesses effectively went backwards

Somewhat worried

Revenues for 1H17 (excluding CS) were $26.8M
Revenues for 1H16 (excluding CS) were $24.1M


So an 11% increase (factoring in the inventory adjustment its a 18% increase)

[co0p]

Did any one dial in to the conference call?

I would love to know more about the 1.2M investment in Goodness.

[winner69]

Revenues for 1H17 (excluding CS) were $26.8M
Revenues for 1H16 (excluding CS) were $24.1M


So an 11% increase (factoring in the inventory adjustment its a 18% increase)

I hear what you are saying, but .....

.....I consider 'normalisation' or whatever you want to call it is a tool to cover up the cracks if you get what I mean.

But if you are happy that's the main thing

With regard to that inventory adjustment won't TIL margins be better as they are not sharing the full margin with an external party now?

[co0p]

I hear what you are saying, but .....

.....I consider 'normalisation' or whatever you want to call it is a tool to cover up the cracks if you get what I mean.

But if you are happy that's the main thing

With regard to that inventory adjustment won't TIL margins be better as they are not sharing the full margin with an external party now?

Yeah I tend to agree with you there.

I'm not happy about the result but I'm certainly not too upset.

Yeah the margins (in NZ) should be better going forward.

One interesting bit of information was the note on intercompany sales. In the two months that CS&co were the distributor, natural products made $3M worth of sales. Assuming they can keep that up, NZ sales in the 2H17 will be approx. 9M

[Balance]

Read the bit about China - like Comvita, suspect TIL is finding the unofficial market problematic and sales have been impacted.

[horus1]

I have TIL and am holding them. 18% increase is pretty good.

[Osake]

Did any one dial in to the conference call?

I would love to know more about the 1.2M investment in Goodness.

Yes I did. No specific detail on Goodness 'investment' so figured it's inventory build plus promotions kick-start (rapid skimming). I was frankly impressed with all the responses Angela gave and the affirming comments given by Geoff and Steven. Goodness now has 2000+ sales doors after just 18 months of efforts. I believe Goodness will become the sustaining component of TIL. It's quite clear that while CS&Co has lower gross margins consequently impacting the group through to EBITDA, I still believe this acquisition is strategically smart and for the price of that investment will deliver sizable (by market comparison) and efficient distribution of both Trilogy and Goodness brands while simultaneously leveraging wider distribution synergies. Ye have faith...and will continue hold for now.

[Snow Leopard]

That extra $3.4M of Sales & Marketing had better come to something over Crimbo!

All the funnies round the acquisitions make it a little too opaque to be sure that they are actually going the right way to justify the end of day share price.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Not at the moment.

[co0p]

Yes I did. No specific detail on Goodness 'investment' so figured it's inventory build plus promotions kick-start (rapid skimming). I was frankly impressed with all the responses Angela gave and the affirming comments given by Geoff and Steven. Goodness now has 2000+ sales doors after just 18 months of efforts. I believe Goodness will become the sustaining component of TIL. It's quite clear that while CS&Co has lower gross margins consequently impacting the group through to EBITDA, I still believe this acquisition is strategically smart and for the price of that investment will deliver sizable (by market comparison) and efficient distribution of both Trilogy and Goodness brands while simultaneously leveraging wider distribution synergies. Ye have faith...and will continue hold for now.

Cool, thanks for the update.

Not sure if an inventory build would affect the P&L.... I'm hoping at least some of the "investment" was spent on product development.

[muss1]

Not sure why the market reacted the way it did. It was exactly as expected. And adding back the inventory build there was good growth in natural products (25% including 38% in Aus). Ecoya may always be the battler.

I will do a more thorough read through and write up in the next few days

[trader_jackson]

Not sure why the market reacted the way it did. It was exactly as expected. And adding back the inventory build there was good growth in natural products (25% including 38% in Aus). Ecoya may always be the battler.

I will do a more thorough read through and write up in the next few days

You are correct. The headline numbers were exactly as expected, in fact slightly ahead... they are not the problem.

But continued dramatic worsening of operating cash flows? EPS of no growth? Skyrocketing administration costs? Margins continuing to get lower and lower? These are not good trends, and, as I've compared before on this thread, completely the opposite direction to (what some like to say is a comparable sotck), BWX

[muss1]

You are correct. The headline numbers were exactly as expected, in fact slightly ahead... they are not the problem.

But continued dramatic worsening of operating cash flows? EPS of no growth? Skyrocketing administration costs? Margins continuing to get lower and lower? These are not good trends, and, as I've compared before on this thread, completely the opposite direction to (what some like to say is a comparable sotck), BWX

In general that is a problem I agree, but these cost increases were still part of the guidance so were not surprises. The guided revenue and EBITDA provided enough information to deduce an increase in costs.

The factors you have referred to have been discussed by the company for months. They are setting themselves up for growth. If they don't grow then it becomes a concern.

EPS still expected to increase by >20% for FY17. Full year OCF will be significantly in the positive.

[kiora]

You are correct. The headline numbers were exactly as expected, in fact slightly ahead... they are not the problem.

But continued dramatic worsening of operating cash flows? EPS of no growth? Skyrocketing administration costs? Margins continuing to get lower and lower? These are not good trends, and, as I've compared before on this thread, completely the opposite direction to (what some like to say is a comparable sotck), BWX

Fear not :From Craigs: Operating cash flow was down substantially (-$4.3m in 1H17 vs $5.67m in 1H16) due to increased inventory build up at CS&CO in the lead up to Christmas. Working capital for CS&CO will be substantially lower in the second half as inventory is sold down. This will also reduce debt levels and interest costs. The balance sheet remains in good shape with gearing of 21.5%.

[Balance]

Cool, thanks for the update.

Not sure if an inventory build would affect the P&L.... I'm hoping at least some of the "investment" was spent on product development.

Inventory build up does not impact on profit - unless there is write down.

Be real concern if the write down is because of impact of sales not meeting expectations so will impact on future periods.

[LAC]

I was not surprised by results, its what I expected. I think they will hit their top end of forecast FY17 and the business will be in a better position for FY18. I will be worried if they dont hit forecast and the business is declining in revenue (I expect more specials over the years which will eat into margins).
My 6 year projection spreadsheet had TIL % margin dropping every year for the next 6 years as they grow.
They were never going to sustain their current growth rate or even stay close. They will still grow for the next 6 years so will continue to hold. I expect divi increase (only tiny) if there is no acquisitions during the year.
I think their marketing spend is a bit high and I expect that to increase in the coming years BUT I really hope they use the $ in better more targeted marketing - TIL products NEVER really stand out to me in a store, I find them because I am looking for it. I also think their "organic" branding needs to be more pronounced. Evolu seems to be better at marketing their "organic" brand.

[sb9]

I think overall result isn't that great but remember they were coming on back off huge growth last year, hence the numbers may look bit subdued.

Have listened to the conference call afterwards and there were analysts from Craigs, CLSA and Bell Potter who asked some good probing questions around future outlook. I think the management have some roadshows planned over net few days and they sure have their work cut out.

Having said that they've delivered bang on their guidance and I believe they would probably do at top end of guidance for full year.

Disc - still holding not contemplating selling

[co0p]

I think overall result isn't that great but remember they were coming on back off huge growth last year, hence the numbers may look bit subdued.

Have listened to the conference call afterwards and there were analysts from Craigs, CLSA and Bell Potter who asked some good probing questions around future outlook. I think the management have some roadshows planned over net few days and they sure have their work cut out.

Having said that they've delivered bang on their guidance and I believe they would probably do at top end of guidance for full year.

Disc - still holding not contemplating selling

Is there somewhere we can access the conference call? I would like to hear what they have to say.

[sb9]

Is there somewhere we can access the conference call? I would like to hear what they have to say.

Sorry tried looking for audio transcript, but no luck.

Seems bit of accumulation of going on today with good volume being traded through. Fact that the price has not dropped that much today, punters are happy to accumulate around 335 mark, good sign.

[winner69]

Sorry tried looking for audio transcript, but no luck.

Seems bit of accumulation of going on today with good volume being traded through. Fact that the price has not dropped that much today, punters are happy to accumulate around 335 mark, good sign.

Just a bit of profit taking yesterday

No worries

Even t_j will regret not buying TIL at these levels - will outperform boring old retirement homes and banks over the next year

[winner69]

Sorry tried looking for audio transcript, but no luck.

Seems bit of accumulation of going on today with good volume being traded through. Fact that the price has not dropped that much today, punters are happy to accumulate around 335 mark, good sign.

Not that long ago we would have been horrified if we thought the TIL share price would be as low ad $3.35 .....but today its good as it a consolidation level as it heads back to $5 plus

[horus1]

I bought a few for long term hold today. They are in consolidation.

[trader_jackson]

Just a bit of profit taking yesterday

No worries

Even t_j will regret not buying TIL at these levels - will outperform boring old retirement homes and banks over the next year

Just like that (recent) time I 'missed out' buying when it was $3.80 something

At least it is just above 10% away from my target price now, not 50% way like it was for a time

[stoploss]

Not that long ago we would have been horrified if we thought the TIL share price would be as low ad $3.35 .....but today its good as it a consolidation level as it heads back to $5 plus


Another 695 K through @ 3.35 still consolidating .

[boysy]

Pie finds managements monthly newsletter out today has a decent mention of TIL I expect they are the ones buying at these levels

https://www.piefunds.co.nz/assets/newsletters/Monthly-Newsletter-December-16.pdf

[stoploss]

Pie finds managements monthly newsletter out today has a decent mention of TIL I expect they are the ones buying at these levels

https://www.piefunds.co.nz/assets/newsletters/Monthly-Newsletter-December-16.pdf

Don't they already own around 13% ,
If you read the whole newsletter and the bit about the losers carefully , they would be going against some of the lessons they have learned .
1, Listen to the chart it generally knows more than you do.
2, Limit position size and top slice investments.
3, Don't average down .Losers average losers.

So unless they did a VTG (and sold it down to 2% ) I think it highly unlikely they are buying .

[winner69]

Another 695 K through @ 3.35 still consolidating .

OBV doesn't suggest consolidation

But then what the heck do I know

[trader_jackson]

$3.20, well it's better than $3.10 that it was earlier in the day, lowest since March this year... at this rate, this stock won't be up much from it's starting point (being $2.83). At least it is nearly at my 'fair value' (being $3)

No worries, I know it has been 1 and a half months, but I'm sure those aussies are just about to come in, see "such a bargin" compared to BWX, re-ratings will occur, alongside increase liquidity and boost that share price to $5 in no time, right?

[winner69]

No consolidation yet - down trend continues

Doubt whether t_j will get his sub $3 though

Then again I don't think TlL is his type of 'punt'

[JayRiggs]

I'm out, I've had enough of this. Good luck to all holders.

[Baa_Baa]

I'm out, I've had enough of this. Good luck to all holders.

Yes, the week ending 20 Sept was the first signal sell (weekly basis), breaking down strongly from the Aug 2015 rising uptrend, then the killer breakdown through the 200DMA week ending Oct 31. Since then it's been "Good luck to all holders". There's so much profit here since mid 2015, one could anticipate a sustained profit take, possibly back to clear supports at $1.50 or the breakout at around $1.00, unless some terrific news intervention occurs.

p.s. the ASX listing is a sideshow, just plainly illiquid.

[winner69]

Yes, the week ending 20 Sept was the first signal sell (weekly basis), breaking down strongly from the Aug 2015 rising uptrend, then the killer breakdown through the 200DMA week ending Oct 31. Since then it's been "Good luck to all holders". There's so much profit here since mid 2015, one could anticipate a sustained profit take, possibly back to clear supports at $1.50 or the breakout at around $1.00, unless some terrific news intervention occurs.

p.s. the ASX listing is a sideshow, just plainly illiquid.

Ouch - mention of $1.50 or $1.00 is horrific

But then in those days they were really only selling candles so this time it is really different

I am start to believe that around $3 is the about as good as its going to be. Probably see share price drifting down from to about $2.50

Lets hope that the Chairman working diligently on finding a buyer - that seems the only real hope of a windfall now

[trader_jackson]

No consolidation yet - down trend continues

Doubt whether t_j will get his sub $3 though

Then again I don't think TlL is his type of 'punt'

$3.05 today... 5 days after you posted that, are you still in doubt about my sub $3 target?
It would seem TIL's candels aren't the only thing on sale this time of year... but like TIL's candels, even with a heavily discounted price, I still don't think their shares are cheap.

Then again, no worries, those aussie insto's will come leaping in tomorrow and push TIL up to the aussie equivalent (and very comparable of course) BWX

[golden city]

I am seeing it down under 3 very soon

[golden city]

Glad I am out at 4.70

[RupertBear]

Glad I am out at 4.70

Well done! :t_up: Wish I was out already :(

[winner69]

Well done! :t_up: Wish I was out already :(

You could always hang in there for the big takeover offer that might come

Only real hope now

[RupertBear]

You could always hang in there for the big takeover offer that might come

Only real hope now

Well that would be winner winner :t_up: and I would quite like to have a winner instead of another Wynyard :D

[golden city]

This won't be a waynard. Just a rematch of growth and valuation. They cleverly done the capital raising to reduced debts. Management are very smart. Just investor push the sp so incredible

[muss1]

Sounds like we are approaching shareholder depression in the investment cycle. Could be nearing the bottom. Valuation looks pretty good at these levels too

[winner69]

Least it didn't go under $3 today

[Baa_Baa]

Least it didn't go under $3 today

There's always tomorrow. Don't hold your breath.

[ShouldHaveHeld]

There's always tomorrow. Don't hold your breath.

Lights gone out

[couta1]

Lights gone out Looks like the lights have gone out across the majority of the NZX to me.

[Balance]

Least it didn't go under $3 today

Just gone under $3.00.

Man, this market is brutal when it is disappointed.

TIL is definitely not prized (prized) as a high growth stock anymore - but still as a growth stock.

So question is what kind of multiple is a fair one to value TIL at.

[trader_jackson]

Just gone under $3.00.

Man, this market is brutal when it is disappointed.

TIL is definitely not prized (prized) as a high growth stock anymore - but still as a growth stock.

So question is what kind of multiple is a fair one to value TIL at.

Yea, quite ironic some posters were (essentially) laughing at me when I continually questiond TIL's lofty valuation (when it was in the mid $4's), I then proceeded to disclose my $3 valuation followed by a breif time where I didn't post anymore (due to continued dismissal of my claims).

Here we are not even a half a year later such I began my questions/comments, and after false ASX listing hopes, inappropriate company comparisions, growth that was clearly slowing (and questionable) topped off with products that really have no genuine barriers to entry (all of which I tried to explain, and more), and the share price is $2.97

Maybe even I was to optimistic... time will tell

[D. Fender]

Here's what Phaedrus said on this site almost 10 years ago about overhyped stocks on ST. Still holds true today.




Watch for a preponderance of overly loyal extremely positive contributions.
Any negative posters are "run off the thread".
When negative posters are accused of "downramping" you can be sure that all objectivity has been lost.
Beware of threads where anyone posting a negative comment is personally attacked.
Dissenting views should be encouraged, not rubbished. We learn nothing from those that agree with us.
Watch for comments on "ignorant" selling by institutions, techies etc - people that think they know better.


Interesting to see www.pharmacydirect.co.nz have all Trilogy products on sale with 20%-25% off, with 10 days still to go before Xmas.

Disc: Not holding.

[Snow Leopard]

Yea, quite ironic some posters were (essentially) laughing at me when I continually questiond TIL's lofty valuation (when it was in the mid $4's), I then proceeded to disclose my $3 valuation followed by a breif time where I didn't post anymore (due to continued dismissal of my claims).

Here we are not even a half a year later such I began my questions/comments, and after false ASX listing hopes, inappropriate company comparisions, growth that was clearly slowing (and questionable) topped off with products that really have no genuine barriers to entry (all of which I tried to explain, and more), and the share price is $2.97

Maybe even I was to optimistic... time will tell

You were right and I was right on the grounds that the current share price is now in the area where you and I valued it.

But for a long time we have been adrift form the consensus and the remains a reasonable possibility that the future will prove you wrong (only you - Tigers are never wrong :p).

So enjoy your 30 seconds of fame but...

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[muss1]

As you say... time will tell.

Just because the share price matches a valuation doesn't mean it is right. We all know the market doesn't work like that

The proof will be whether EPS is 30c or 15c in 3-5 years from now. Then we can have the victory ceremony and acknowledge the winners of the 2016 ST debate.

[horus1]

What is behind the change in chairman

[Snow Leopard]

Bye Geoff Ross, Hi Grant Baker (https://nzx.com/files/attachments/250243.pdf)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Balance]

Here's what Phaedrus said on this site almost 10 years ago about overhyped stocks on ST. Still holds true today.




Watch for a preponderance of overly loyal extremely positive contributions.
Any negative posters are "run off the thread".
When negative posters are accused of "downramping" you can be sure that all objectivity has been lost.
Beware of threads where anyone posting a negative comment is personally attacked.
Dissenting views should be encouraged, not rubbished. We learn nothing from those that agree with us.
Watch for comments on "ignorant" selling by institutions, techies etc - people that think they know better.


Interesting to see www.pharmacydirect.co.nz have all Trilogy products on sale with 20%-25% off, with 10 days still to go before Xmas.

Disc: Not holding.

So true and should be posted as checklist.

Must say I cannot see the Trilogy products on sale at PharmacyDirect. Where do I look for them?

[winner69]

So true and should be posted as checklist.

Must say I cannot see the Trilogy products on sale at PharmacyDirect. Where do I look for them?

Here's some

http://www.pharmacydirect.co.nz/Trilogy-Skincare-Range-1/

Probably normal price anyway even though they show these great discounts of RRP

Good shopping

[Balance]

Here's some

http://www.pharmacydirect.co.nz/Trilogy-Skincare-Range-1/

Probably normal price anyway even though they show these great discounts of RRP

Good shopping

My partner tells me that the discounted prices are indeed the 'normal' retail prices.

Thanks.

[stoploss]

My partner tells me that the discounted prices are indeed the 'normal' retail prices.

Thanks.

Surely they offer you a decent shareholder discount ?

[Balance]

Surely they offer you a decent shareholder discount ?

Go to any of the many Asian health and beauty care export shops around Auckland and you can get products like Trilogy or Comvita at prices below what the pharmacies sell them at.

[winner69]

There's always tomorrow. Don't hold your breath.

Yes, there was a tomorrow and it was another down .......and down for the next few 'tomorrows' as well

Jeez $2.90 is a long way from the $5 not that long ago - almost half price.

Heading to $2 by looks of it

Only hope for a decent profit now is a takeover

[winner69]

Bye Geoff Ross, Hi Grant Baker (https://nzx.com/files/attachments/250243.pdf)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Hope this doesn't affect the chances of the company being sold

Has Geoff got bored and a bit disillusioned with how Trilogy is doing?

Probably wishing they sold heaps more at the lofy price they got last time

[co0p]

Hope this doesn't affect the chances of the company being sold

Has Geoff got bored and a bit disillusioned with how Trilogy is doing?

Probably wishing they sold heaps more at the lofy price they got last time


Its interesting - perhaps Geoff needs to spend more time focusing on MOA.

I like Grant Baker and I believe he has done a great job with TNR. Pretty happy with the swap.

[Balance]

Yes, there was a tomorrow and it was another down .......and down for the next few 'tomorrows' as well

Jeez $2.90 is a long way from the $5 not that long ago - almost half price.

Heading to $2 by looks of it

Only hope for a decent profit now is a takeover

Thinking aloud :

Do not like the look of how the stock is tracking lower on reasonable volume vs when it went up rapidly on light volume - the liquidity rationale of placing $50m worth of stock has not worked positively.

$2.90 is still 13.3% up on where it was a year ago, and still some 300% up on where it was 2 years ago.

So still enough shareholders sitting on big enough gains to exit with a profit - likely means that short term selling pressure will continue until the stock finds a fundamental value base.

[winner69]

Thinking aloud :

Do not like the look of how the stock is tracking lower on reasonable volume vs when it went up rapidly on light volume - the liquidity rationale of placing $50m worth of stock has not worked positively.

$2.90 is still 13.3% up on where it was a year ago, and still some 300% up on where it was 2 years ago.

So still enough shareholders sitting on big enough gains to exit with a profit - likely means that short term selling pressure will continue until the stock finds a fundamental value base.

That's how I see it as well mate

You say likely means that short term selling pressure will continue until the stock finds a fundamental value base ......irrespective of what some think it should the market will decide what that value is

But with diminished growth prospects relative to past hype I don't think we will ever see $5 again ....and even $4 looks a bit rich

[winner69]

So much for the hype that an ASX listing would result in enough exposure to TIL that it would probably see TIL rerated in line with BWX multiple

A few months on the 'valuation gap' is about the same - no rerating has happened

Both BWX and TIL share prices down about 25% since the date TIL listed on the ASX - ouch

Seems both are dogs at the moment - unloved and unwanted - hope one finds a new home (owner) soon

[Balance]

So much for the hype that an ASX listing would result in enough exposure to TIL that it would probably see TIL rerated in line with BWX multiple

A few months on the 'valuation gap' is about the same - no rerating has happened

Both BWX and TIL share prices down about 25% since the date TIL listed on the ASX - ouch

Seems both are dogs at the moment - unloved and unwanted - hope one finds a new home (owner) soon

It is what it is, W69?

Next results will not be due until May 2017 so will be a nervous wait until then.

Share price was driven by a diet of good news until recent times so here's hoping TIL delivers an earnings update/upgrade after the crucial December/January trading period.

[Pricey]

Not currently based in NZ, how are the TIL shelves looking around town? In previous years they have been well sold.

[ShouldHaveHeld]

Was looking around Botany the other day and could see some stock on the shelf, not many though. Spoke to one of the staff members there and was told that most were bought for Christmas gifts

[RupertBear]

Not currently based in NZ, how are the TIL shelves looking around town? In previous years they have been well sold.

Have bought quite a few Trilogy products recently and must say the shelves are not as well stocked or displayed as this time last year. There appears to be less Trilogy and more Sukin and Antipodes products available. Personally I prefer the Trilogy products. Apparently the Pine Ecoya candles are very popular again this year.

[winner69]

Have bought quite a few Trilogy products recently and must say the shelves are not as well stocked or displayed as this time last year. There appears to be less Trilogy and more Sukin and Antipodes products available. Personally I prefer the Trilogy products. Apparently the Pine Ecoya candles are very popular again this year.

Pine remind you of Nutwood Forest eh Rupert

Good choice

[Balance]

Was looking around Botany the other day and could see some stock on the shelf, not many though. Spoke to one of the staff members there and was told that most were bought for Christmas gifts

Why Christmas trading period so critical for TIL to recapture momentum.

Reading through recent BWX articles, seems like the tide has well and truly gone out on the great export growth potential of China - the China government e-commerce clamp down has been savage and effective. Suspect this is what is buggering up the export sales growth momentum of of BWX, TIL and CVT.

[winner69]

Why Christmas trading period so critical for TIL to recapture momentum.

Reading through recent BWX articles, seems like the tide has well and truly gone out on the great export growth potential of China - the China government e-commerce clamp down has been savage and effective. Suspect this is what is buggering up the export sales growth momentum of of BWX, TIL and CVT.

Don't always get this seasonal thing in skincare

Surely skin needs loving attention every day of the year

Candles, I can see why it is mre important. Great business selling useless unwanted things once a year which probably get regifted anyway. At the end of the day candles make stuff all profit soit doesn't really make difference if Christmas sales are good or disappointing.

[mondograss]

People like to give smelly things to other people for Xmas, it's a definite thing, like soap-on-a-rope used to be. I don't pretend to understand it myself, everyone I know is very picky about what they use for skincare and yet "here you go, random smelly stuff you've never tried before and have no idea if you're allergic to".

[winner69]

People like to give smelly things to other people for Xmas, it's a definite thing, like soap-on-a-rope used to be. I don't pretend to understand it myself, everyone I know is very picky about what they use for skincare and yet "here you go, random smelly stuff you've never tried before and have no idea if you're allergic to".

...and like our bathroom cluttered up shelves, drawers, cupboards of unwanted stuff eh

[Zouga]

The candles are beautiful, my friends and I all have several at any one time. You should buy one W and see for yourself. Great movie, glass of Central Otago Pinot and the fragrance of Ecoya French Pear. Nice!

[winner69]

Whew, the relief

When the share price hit 276 yesterday I feared we were seeing a total collapse and 250 or even 200 beckoned

But 300 today is fantastic stuff

Must be heading up now

[sb9]

Whew, the relief

When the share price hit 276 yesterday I feared we were seeing a total collapse and 250 or even 200 beckoned

But 300 today is fantastic stuff

Must be heading up now

Always tht 300 was good resistance for them, let's see if it can trade higher of that mark...

[boysy]

Delving into the numbers a bit further and assuming seasonality of the underlying business the majority of sales and profit is made in the 2nd half of the year. At the current SP if they hit the bottom of the forecast i.e. $100m (assumes no growth on H2 16)rev and $19m ebitda they are trading at just under 20x earnings, done some quick calls at my end a bullish case at $110m I get ebit of $24m with EPS of 19c and PE of 15x on FY17 earnings. Plenty of detail in the recent analyst presentation if you delve into the detail but the proof will be in the full year results.

[LAC]

SP overshot when it got to $5 but nothing has really changed with TIL, there is still value in this. If they get to their top end of $110m they tick my boxes. Bought in cheap. The margins will always drop over the years as they grow, if they keep 20% EPS I wont be complaining.

[RupertBear]

Pine remind you of Nutwood Forest eh Rupert

Good choice

Had to look up Nutwood trees Winner and what a cool symbolic tree they are! Thanks for the mention. This wee bear would happily live in the Nutwood Forest but candles and bear fur are not a good match so this bear will stick to Trilogys ultrahydrating cream :)

[stoploss]

The candles are beautiful, my friends and I all have several at any one time. You should buy one W and see for yourself. Great movie, glass of Central Otago Pinot and the fragrance of Ecoya French Pear. Nice!

Our house has ended up with a few candles from the local garden centre . Look like very good quality ( made in NZ ) . The ladies certainly like them .
So plenty of competition for TIL in this space .

http://ashleyandco.co.nz/collections/shop-all

[LAC]

Mrs did all xmas gifts online, Trilogy and Ecoya 20% off for friends and family, all items got there on time (orders put through on the 18th December). Hand written messages as well, nice little touch.
Great service.
Saves me going to the mall and dealing with that madness:)

[NZSilver]

Mrs did all xmas gifts online, Trilogy and Ecoya 20% off for friends and family, all items got there on time (orders put through on the 18th December). Hand written messages as well, nice little touch.
Great service.
Saves me going to the mall and dealing with that madness:)

agreed 100%

[winner69]

Mrs did all xmas gifts online, Trilogy and Ecoya 20% off for friends and family, all items got there on time (orders put through on the 18th December). Hand written messages as well, nice little touch.
Great service.
Saves me going to the mall and dealing with that madness:)

Hope not a sign that Trilogy weren't that busy at what is meant to be the busiest time of the year

[boysy]

making better margins off selling directly rather than through the likes of a retailer still recon there is plenty of margin to be made even with 20% off. seeing plenty of 40-50% off everything signs in many retailers but a trading update in January would be welcome. This time of year is when ecoya make the bulk of their profit both trilogy and CS Co earnings have been historically by and large even over the year. The biggie will be how the co is trading in Australia that is where the growth in revenue and profitability will continue to be driven from.

[winner69]

The more I learn about Trilogy (repots, visiting stores, talking to consumers, feedback on Sharetrader etc) the more convinced I am that the boom growth for Trilogy (exc the one off impact of CS acquisition) is over and that in future we will see more modest growth.

Still not too shabby. I've given up on my high growth valuations and sticking with my Conservative Scenario. Still strong growth of Trilogy/Ecoya products (CS counted separately) assumed - 30% in F17, 20% in F18, 10% in F19 etc.

That valuation come to $3.14. Current price $3.14 - spooky eh. The market agrees with me that the real boom times are no longer.

Trilogy/Ecoya might struggle to achieve those growth rates mentioned so I reckon not too much upside for the share price - unless one wants to add heaps in for the inevitable takeover.

Bit sad really - probably never see $4 or $5 again for a while (barring takeover)

[muss1]

Pie have been buying again according to their latest newsletter

[winner69]

Pie have been buying again according to their latest newsletter

Good eh ....share price might be a lot lower if they hadn't been topping up

[boysy]

Got a link muss1 they haven't updated the website

[winner69]

Got a link muss1 they haven't updated the website

https://www.piefunds.co.nz/assets/newsletters/PieFunds-Newsletter-January-2017/Monthly-Newsletter-January-17..pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Slice%20of%20Pie%20-%20January%202017&utm_content=Slice%20of%20Pie%20-%20January%202017+CID_7d32e15de1568901ba269e0bfe6b 2f80&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=Click%20here%20to%20view%20the%20monthly% 20newsletter%20httpbitlydecembernewsletter16

[NZSilver]

Recovery from recent lows - even though volume is low. Good results after the busy trading period over xmas and hopefully we can shake some of that uncertainty.

[QOH]

Must be time for TIL to dump their Ecoya candles division. More bad publicity.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11786929

[winner69]

Must be time for TIL to dump their Ecoya candles division. More bad publicity.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11786929

Agree

Hardly make any money on them as well

A real drag on company performance

[boysy]

winner I think you will find those candles are adding to profitability this year. Regarding the article a bit of a beat up when the scientist confirms she didn't read any of the three warnings on the packet.

[BlackPeter]

Must be time for TIL to dump their Ecoya candles division. More bad publicity.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11786929

Maybe a new revenue opportunity for them? They could team up with IQE and develop a training course for customers to teach them how to safely use their candles. Finish the course with a test and hand out an NZSA certificate which shows that the holder is qualified to burn Ecoya candles? As well - have TIL ever thought about selling appropriate safety equipment? Adding to each candle sale a handful of nicely styled safety helmets with visor would boost the revenue and show that they care about their customers ;);

[Beagle]

CVT struggling in China, TIL next to surprise the market ?

[Cricketfan]

winner I think you will find those candles are adding to profitability this year. Regarding the article a bit of a beat up when the scientist confirms she didn't read any of the three warnings on the packet.

Who reads instructions for a candle???? And even if you did, would you really be expected to monitor the candle so that it doesn't burn too far down? That's just poor design.

[winner69]

winner I think you will find those candles are adding to profitability this year. Regarding the article a bit of a beat up when the scientist confirms she didn't read any of the three warnings on the packet.

H117 candles Ebitda was $339k - up from $303k the year prior

Suppose thats adding to profitability

But a pittance on $9m of sales - a 4% ebitda margin pretty hopeless for a so called top of the range premium product. (Really means they are loss making at a npat level)

Candles are a drag on performance - put that effort and focus into something worthwhile.

[boysy]

Winner I expect a bit more from you delve into the profitability of H2 vs H1 sales. It's clear the exits business is cyclical with the majority of profit made in the 2nd half.

[RupertBear]

CVT struggling in China, TIL next to surprise the market ?

Yes I was wondering the same thing :confused:....hope not....hope Christmas has been a boomer for them ;)

[Rep]

Who reads instructions for a candle???? And even if you did, would you really be expected to monitor the candle so that it doesn't burn too far down? That's just poor design.

The relevant question when considering safety in use is NOT what would a reasonable person do in reasonable circumstances but what would the least careful person possibly do in a hurry.

Even if there was a big red line on the glass at the 1 cm point above the bottom of the glass receptacle and a warning to highlight that this was the lowest safe level for the wax to be burned down - it would still not obviate the responsibility that it may be above this level when the candle is lit and may burn below this point. Most of us don't necessarily expect to have to monitor a candle's wax level even with a warning so it is quite a poor design to not expect that the heated metal would be in contact with the glass and shatter.

Likewise, there are many cars that have a hook above the rear windows for a coat hanger to hang your jacket but if the car is fitted with side curtain airbags there will be a warning in the owners' manual that if they inflate that the coat hanger could be propelled as a missile in an unsafe way within the cabin. A better design is not to have the bloody hook so you don't end up with a coat hanger embedded in the side of the skull - let alone let passengers rest their head on the window!

[winner69]

Winner I expect a bit more from you delve into the profitability of H2 vs H1 sales. It's clear the exits business is cyclical with the majority of profit made in the 2nd half.

What I was saying H117 growth was pretty ordinary at best

agree h2 is stronger than h1 - but how much more will ebitda be than the $2.2m ebitda they made last year.

Still a drag on overall company performance - but then a lot of companies have a dog they have fallen in love with.

[trader_jackson]

CVT struggling in China, TIL next to surprise the market ?

TIL won't be a surprise to me...;)
Currently trading a fraction above my fair valuation (which I mentioned quite a while ago was $3, this is when the share price was still well in excess of $4 and "it was only a matter of time" when it would be above $5... probably also the time when the $20 figure was thrown around for CVT;))
...Key word is currently

[dodgy]

winner I think you will find those candles are adding to profitability this year. Regarding the article a bit of a beat up when the scientist confirms she didn't read any of the three warnings on the packet.

Pathetic for ANY person in the "scientific" community not to read instructions.

[Cricketfan]

Pathetic for ANY person in the "scientific" community not to read instructions.

Perhaps, but irrelevant in this case. Let's say she read the instructions and was doing an experiment to see what would happen if someone treated the candle like any other candle and let it burn. The point is the candle is designed badly, and most people who read this article or saw the tweets will definitely avoid buying it in future. I know if I was in the market for a candle, I would not buy Ecoya.

[dodgy]

Perhaps, but irrelevant in this case. Let's say she read the instructions and was doing an experiment to see what would happen if someone treated the candle like any other candle and let it burn. The point is the candle is designed badly, and most people who read this article or saw the tweets will definitely avoid buying it in future. I know if I was in the market for a candle, I would not buy Ecoya.

I agree, but what about a balanced view. Are all candles in the market place the same , and have instructions as the target ? Or has this company been singled out for whatever reason ? Maybe a few too many vinos do you think?

[BlackPeter]

I agree, but what about a balanced view. Are all candles in the market place the same , and have instructions as the target ? Or has this company been singled out for whatever reason ? Maybe a few too many vinos do you think?

I have seen before companies attacking their customers for not following instructions. I can't however remember a successful company doing so. If the clear downtrend TIL is in is not hint enough - TIL's behaviour should be a big red flag for any remaining holder.

Re candles - we always buy the cheapest ones we can get ... and never ever had a problem with them cracking the base we put them in. Maybe a solution for other buyers as well? Save money and trouble ... avoid Ecoya ;) - does not rhyme, but seems to make a lot of sense;

[boysy]

How people think lighting a candle and leaving it unattended is a good idea is beyond me. This is an industry wide issue if you look at ecoyas competitors in NZ and Australia they all have the same issues with the same warnings. is reading any one of the three warnings on the package too much to ask ?

[boysy]

BP I think the ecoya PR team are working OT at the moment good follow up from them this morning it appears the scientist is now refusing comment

http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/88672551/auckland-scientist-nanogirl-unhappy-as-ecoya-candle-explodes

Ecoya publicist Kate Hemus said while they respected Dickinson's opinion as a scientist and welcomed any testing she did, the company had been making candles for many years.

The blowing out of a candle happened when there was no wax to burn and the wick and metal wick holder were left to burn, exposing the base to extreme heat.

Safety information was provided on the base of the carton, the base of the candle and on an insert at the top of the candle.

It was also important to trim the wick of the candle each time it was used, she said.

Ecoya candles used a specific glass called annealed soda-lime silicate, which was independently tested on a regular basis for thermal shock and integrity.

The soy wax used also burned cooler and cleaner.

"We send someone from our technical team to an international candle conference annually to ensure that we are leading the industry in candle production.

"Unfortunately this is not the first time we have seen an incident like this, however we can tell you that 100 per cent of the complaints made where instances like this have occurred is when instructions for safe candle burning have not been followed."

Ecoya had received an email from Dickinson and were waiting for her contact number so they could discuss the incident, Hemus said.

Dickinson did not respond to requests for comment.

[BlackPeter]

BP I think the ecoya PR team are working OT at the moment good follow up from them this morning it appears the scientist is now refusing comment

http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/88672551/auckland-scientist-nanogirl-unhappy-as-ecoya-candle-explodes

Ecoya publicist Kate Hemus said while they respected Dickinson's opinion as a scientist and welcomed any testing she did, the company had been making candles for many years.

The blowing out of a candle happened when there was no wax to burn and the wick and metal wick holder were left to burn, exposing the base to extreme heat.

Safety information was provided on the base of the carton, the base of the candle and on an insert at the top of the candle.

It was also important to trim the wick of the candle each time it was used, she said.

Ecoya candles used a specific glass called annealed soda-lime silicate, which was independently tested on a regular basis for thermal shock and integrity.

The soy wax used also burned cooler and cleaner.

"We send someone from our technical team to an international candle conference annually to ensure that we are leading the industry in candle production.

"Unfortunately this is not the first time we have seen an incident like this, however we can tell you that 100 per cent of the complaints made where instances like this have occurred is when instructions for safe candle burning have not been followed."

Ecoya had received an email from Dickinson and were waiting for her contact number so they could discuss the incident, Hemus said.

Dickinson did not respond to requests for comment.

Look boysy - you clearly feel strong for Ecoya. Let me tell you, at the end it does not matter who is (legally) right ... Ecoya will lose customers and business due to this incident.

I don't know how much their candles cost, but I am sure it is too much. Designing the base in a way that they can't burn below the recommended wax level would be very easy indeed (with cost ranging from Zero to some tenth of a cent). Just slightly modify the wick-holder and the last 10mm of wax (or whatever the critical level is) can't be burned due to the wick ending a bit higher.

You don't need to be a rocket scientist, brain surgeon or materials engineer to see this solution - Ecoya is clearly ways out of their depth and it sounds they are designing unsafe candles. And they charge an arm and a leg for the opportunity to buy them.

[Balance]

CVT struggling in China, TIL next to surprise the market ?

Couple of articles from 2016 when TIL's sp was heading towards $5.00 shows how important the China market is to sales and earnings as far as the marrket is concerned :

http://www.afr.com/markets/nzs-trilogy-soars-on-boom-in-natural-skincare-demand-from-china-20160621-gpob63

https://www.piefunds.co.nz/news/trilogy-soars-on-boom-in-natural-skincare/

Comparison to Blackmores & BWX : "It's pretty easy to get a valuation of $6.00 without working that hard."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11592544

I think after the Comvita fiasco and Bellamy's blow-out, market will be watching the China sales very very carefully.

[sb9]

I think after the Comvita fiasco and Bellamy's blow-out, market will be watching the China sales very very carefully.

Agree with your comments Balance, however on point of Bellamy's which were purely self inflicted wherein they try to do online sales themselves by undercutting daigou channel which is where A2 made big strategic shift.

Sorry to digress, but my point is you've to know the target market well (in this case China) and have logistics or strategies in place to succeed or else you're doomed as a company.

[LAC]

Hi Guys, on another note. TIL's use of the extra $ raised to pay down debt and knowing that that usually pay +-55% in divies, what would they do with the retained cash? Do you think they will be looking at acquisitions or growing the existing products?

[trader_jackson]

$2.80 now... clearly someone is worried
NZX website says TIL is now 'in the red' for 52 week change

[Beagle]

Catching the CVT disease ? Market worried about counterfeit product in China and / or the effects of the new tax on grey imports into China or could it simply be that what's a hot trendy product one minute is perceived as second rate when the latest new competitor product(s) emerges ? Either way from a technical perspective this looks scary !

[Balance]

Catching the CVT disease ? Market worried about counterfeit product in China and / or the effects of the new tax on grey imports into China or could it simply be that what's a hot trendy product one minute is perceived as second rate when the latest new competitor product(s) emerges ? Either way from a technical perspective this looks scary !

2 months from financial year end but well past crucial Christmas/New Year retail period so market will be very nervous if there is no profit upgrade announcement?

Problem when a company has had a fantastic run of profit upgrades until the last set of financials.

Downgrades come in threes as has been noted many a time.

[co0p]

2 months from financial year end but well past crucial Christmas/New Year retail period so market will be very nervous if there is no profit upgrade announcement?

Problem when a company has had a fantastic run of profit upgrades until the last set of financials.

Downgrades come in threes as has been noted many a time.

Informed investors won't be nervous about the lack of profit upgrade announcements. The guidance range they provided late last year was a fairly wide.

I doubt many investors were expecting a profit upgrade.

There is a message on the Goodness facebook page where they confirm Woolworths are removing the range from some stores.

[mondograss]

Updated guidance didn't come until 10th March last year, so if it's going to come I wouldn't expect it for a few weeks yet.

[Beagle]

Looks like we're finally seeing a little bit of depth to the buying at around $2.50. Some brave souls prepared to draw a line in the sand and call that a bottom. Must be cheap right ?...after all that's only half the $5 of a few months back...or is it cheap ?

[winner69]

Looks like we're finally seeing a little bit of depth to the buying at around $2.50. Some brave souls prepared to draw a line in the sand and call that a bottom. Must be cheap right ?...after all that's only half the $5 of a few months back...or is it cheap ?

Often high flyers get to s point where punters think its done it dash and that is where its seen as good as its going to get.

For Trilogy thst was just after the ASM where the outlook for F17 was very disappointing.

I think Trilogy has become unloved and unwanted by most. The believers will still believe and that could keep th share price sround the current levels plusor minus a few cents.

The excitment has gone - nothing to get new punters wanting to rush in and take a punt - in other words whats goingbto drive the share price back to $4 or $5, nothing

[Beagle]

Often high flyers get to s point where punters think its done it dash and that is where its seen as good as its going to get.

For Trilogy thst was just after the ASM where the outlook for F17 was very disappointing.

I think Trilogy has become unloved and unwanted by most. The believers will still believe and that could keep th share price sround the current levels plusor minus a few cents.

The excitment has gone - nothing to get new punters wanting to rush in and take a punt - in other words whats goingbto drive the share price back to $4 or $5, nothing

They could come up with some secret new lotion or potion that's the elixir of youth that promises to make you feel and look twenty years younger :)..more likely it will continue to fall out of favor and could very easily end up back at $1.00 where it was less than 2 years ago.

[winner69]

Close at 255 .....and being the low of the day not good

Unloved and unwanted

[NZSilver]

at $1 TIL would have a Mcap of approx 72 mil, based on $9 million profit fy2016 that would put TIL on a historical pe of around 8, I see it highly unlikely the price will get to $1 unless there is a very large market correction. If FY17 profit is 10 million, which would be the low end of the guidance, TIL will be on a PE of around 18 at current market price of $2.55. This profit would be poor result for anticipated growth, mainly due to reduced margins as revenue is expected to be approx 100-110 million. However even on that result, TIL price is likely to be between $2-3, an that is for a company that is still growing sales/revenue and profit (albiet slower than everyone thought it would 6 months ago).

[horus1]

I have held all the way through. I am buying more at 2.50-2.70. I think they are oversold

[trader_jackson]

Close at 255 .....and being the low of the day not good

Unloved and unwanted

Wow, seems even my $3 valuation is on the expensive side... maybe the people who said I didn't understand the company and should stay out of the thread (or words to that effect) when I gave my $3 target (and the share price was well above $4) were right... Looks like even I was too optimistic.

[Snow Leopard]

Well for what it is worth the end of day share price is a little less than my current valuation.

But that is one nasty downtrend, so i doubt I will be buying in any time soon.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[pierre]

Well for what it is worth the end of day share price is a little less than my current valuation.

But that is one nasty downtrend, so i doubt I will be buying in any time soon.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

That's a pity PT - I've decided to sell mine tomorrow and was hoping you might have been a buyer. I'm going to take a hit but I've had enough of the slippery slope this share appears to be on and I'm sure I can find a much better use for the funds.

[RupertBear]

That's a pity PT - I've decided to sell mine tomorrow and was hoping you might have been a buyer. I'm going to take a hit but I've had enough of the slippery slope this share appears to be on and I'm sure I can find a much better use for the funds.

Hmm I have been wondering about doing the same looking at that ugly downtrend, but for some reason I still have faith in the company so I have continued to hold. But I held onto Wynyard too and that didnt work out so well :(

[Snow Leopard]

That's a pity PT - I've decided to sell mine tomorrow and was hoping you might have been a buyer. I'm going to take a hit but I've had enough of the slippery slope this share appears to be on and I'm sure I can find a much better use for the funds.


I have held all the way through. I am buying more at 2.50-2.70. I think they are oversold

pierre, meet horus1.

horus1, this is pierre.

All the best
Paper Tiger

[NZSilver]

Yep a downtrend for sure, but at $2.50 fundamentally this is priced at a low valuation, I will hold and re-asses after an update on trading. The lack liquidity will not be our friend on the way down.

[sb9]

Yep a downtrend for sure, but at $2.50 fundamentally this is priced at a low valuation, I will hold and re-asses after an update on trading. The lack liquidity will not be our friend on the way down.



1
1
9:09:00 am
250
800,000
$2,000,000




Surely now totally unloved by the looks, seems like a big player selling down.

[muss1]

1
1
9:09:00 am
250
800,000
$2,000,000




Surely now totally unloved by the looks, seems like a big player selling down.

Alternatively, a big player in the know taking the opportunity to pick up some cheap shares. The transaction goes both ways... might see a SSH notice soon.

If you believed in the fundamentals a few months ago there is no reason to change your opinion. No new evidence has surfaced.

[RupertBear]

1
1
9:09:00 am
250
800,000
$2,000,000




Surely now totally unloved by the looks, seems like a big player selling down.

Is that you selling Pierre? :p

[BlackPeter]

..,

If you believed in the fundamentals a few months ago there is no reason to change your opinion. No new evidence has surfaced.

Don't forget that the "fundamentals" contain often big hype factors (assumed growth, brand loyalty, "goodwill" and similar). Take the growth away and this is still a ways too dear retailer of cosmetics and candles. Assume customers might lose interest and move to more reasonable priced stuff - and this is a shipwreck.

Didn't bother to check the balance sheet - but the reported NTA is hardly worthwhile mentioning - so I assume most of the fundamentals is based on "goodwill", growth assumptions and faith. All stuff which can easily evaporate.

Not saying this is the case here, but just trusting into last years "fundamentals" can be expensive.

[winner69]

This year profit maybe $14m or 19 cents a share

So current PE about 13. Forecasts seem to have future earnings growth at about 10% so maybe oriced about right(?) at the moment

Believe the story and the hype and its worth 4 bucks .....but I fear the excitment / buzz has gone from TIL. Its done its dash and just another stock

Best outcome now is that inevitiable takeover

[muss1]

Don't forget that the "fundamentals" contain often big hype factors (assumed growth, brand loyalty, "goodwill" and similar). Take the growth away and this is still a ways too dear retailer of cosmetics and candles. Assume customers might lose interest and move to more reasonable priced stuff - and this is a shipwreck.

Didn't bother to check the balance sheet - but the reported NTA is hardly worthwhile mentioning - so I assume most of the fundamentals is based on "goodwill", growth assumptions and faith. All stuff which can easily evaporate.

Not saying this is the case here, but just trusting into last years "fundamentals" can be expensive.

Hence why I left it to the individual to decide how they feel about the fundamentals.

I just get frustrated seeing people "deciding to sell" based purely on the fact the stock price has gone down (having bought in as investors not traders). That and the self congratulation of "I told you so" posters assuming their assessment of the situation is correct because the stock price happens to be at a certain level. If earnings growth continues they are going to be wrong, if it doesn't they will be right. We just don't know yet.

Anyway...

[BlackPeter]

Just noticed on 4-trader: growth and earnings assumptions have just been further reduced. Future growth now down to 13% pa. Consensus now $2.80 (down from $4) ... and recommendation "underperform";

Note: analysts are typically too optimistic particularly when downgrading their previous darlings ...

[sb9]

This year profit maybe $14m or 19 cents a share

So current PE about 13. Forecasts seem to have future earnings growth at about 10% so maybe oriced about right(?) at the moment

Believe the story and the hype and its worth 4 bucks .....but I fear the excitment / buzz has gone from TIL. Its done its dash and just another stock

Best outcome now is that inevitiable takeover

Looks like there's bit of positive if look at BWX (Sukin brand) HY results out today across ditch, impressive numbers....hopefully its not all that bad for TIL after all.

[bull....]

til was clearly in a bubble at $5 and once a bubble bursts we all no what happens or in tils case is happening - timber

[stoploss]

Looks like there's bit of positive if look at BWX (Sukin brand) HY results out today across ditch, impressive numbers....hopefully its not all that bad for TIL after all.

I think the BWX analogy went out the window a long time ago ..... Remember "when we list on the ASX people will value it the same as BWX " When we list on ASX a lot more fund managers will be able to buy"
"there will be increased liquidity when we list on ASX"...all three some fodder for a TUI ad .......
BAL went South big time , ATM continues to do well , so doesn't mean a good result from BWX will flow to TIL.

[Balance]

Alternatively, a big player in the know taking the opportunity to pick up some cheap shares. The transaction goes both ways... might see a SSH notice soon.

If you believed in the fundamentals a few months ago there is no reason to change your opinion. No new evidence has surfaced.

The new evidence I suspect is the fact that companies selling via the grey channel to China (CVT, ONL and BWX) have been more adversely impacted than they originally expected and advised the market.

Trilogy products are definitely been discounted now in the market - Trilogy Rosehip was selling for $37 last year but at health product and skincare shops can be obtained for $31. That's a big drop in margins.

[Bilbo]

til was clearly in a bubble at $5 and once a bubble bursts we all no what happens or in tils case is happening - timber

Yes, share prices tend to overshoot on the way up and also overshoot on the way down. So the question is whether they have overshot yet, or is there more downside to come? I sold 90% of my holding at $3.75 (on the way down from the peak) after having bought in at $1.21 and continuing to buy up to $2.75. Sold the remainder yesterday at $2.66 due to continued downtrend and it falling below my last purchase price.

Would love to know what PIE Funds are doing. No SSH notice yet so I assume they are still holding. I would imagine TIL has been a huge anchor on their fund's performance over the last 6 months.

[stoploss]

Yes, share prices tend to overshoot on the way up and also overshoot on the way down. So the question is whether they have overshot yet, or is there more downside to come? I sold 90% of my holding at $3.75 (on the way down from the peak) after having bought in at $1.21 and continuing to buy up to $2.75. Sold the remainder yesterday at $2.66 due to continued downtrend and it falling below my last purchase price.

Would love to know what PIE Funds are doing. No SSH notice yet so I assume they are still holding. I would imagine TIL has been a huge anchor on their fund's performance over the last 6 months.

In the January newsletter PIE said "We remain confident in the long term outlook for TIL and have been continuing to add to our position at current levels" . Price was circa $ 3.00 .
No news from the company so that view shouldn't have changed ...maybe they are backing the truck up here ......

[winner69]

Looks like there's bit of positive if look at BWX (Sukin brand) HY results out today across ditch, impressive numbers....hopefully its not all that bad for TIL after all.

BWX result really good - said they would grow by 30% and that's what they doing

TIL underlying growth this year not really in the same ball park is it

Wonder what the 'value gap' is now - probably reflects relative performance

[winner69]

Hell's bell - TIL is now 50% undervalued relative to BWX (on ebitda multiples) - or the 'value gap' is getting bigger and bigger

The market (at least in Australia) is telling us a story here ....and for TIL believers it's not a good story

Interesting

[horus1]

Very big volumes thru and price bounced.If you have courage, buy.

[winner69]

The 'value gap' to BWX get bigger since above post - now 51%

Pie must be salivating at the prospects

[NZSilver]

I agree with you muss, investors are a little shaky at the moment and company share prices are getting punished when growth targets or expectations arn't met. I believe people are assuming a downgrade or poor result from TIL, which of course could occur. But fundementally there is a upside at the current sp if the meet their guidance.

[Balance]

Hell's bell - TIL is now 50% undervalued relative to BWX (on ebitda multiples) - or the 'value gap' is getting bigger and bigger

The market (at least in Australia) is telling us a story here ....and for TIL believers it's not a good story

Interesting

Market is obviously pricing in and expecting a profit downgrade and earnings disappointment. So is the market right?

If TIL's sp trend is any guide, the market has been pretty accurate in the past.

One of the most interesting observations passed to yours truly here over the decades when evaluating a stock's propensity to trend on 'informed' trades is to look at whether the sp gaps on results and price sensitive announcements.

The chart of TIL suggests to me that the informed market is driving the sp.

Leaving the stock well alone until they announce their results or trading update.

[Beagle]

Speeding downhill price enquiry by NZX...as well there should be.

[RupertBear]

Speeding downhill price enquiry by NZX...as well there should be.

I have no faith in price enquiries. They always claim they are complying Wynyard claimed they were complying as well.

[Lola]

I have no faith in price enquiries. They always claim they are complying Wynyard claimed they were complying as well.

Absolutely agree with you. TIL have a template for their replies...see their response to a similar enquiry dated 1 November 2016. Price kept tanking after that one too. Who traded volume recently should be the point.

[winner69]

They say they continue to comply with continuos disclosure stuff.

No surprises - they'll still make about $20m EBITDA this year - but that doesn't cut the mustard being a high growth market darling. Those days are gone.

Back to normal valuations for steady as she goes companies I reckon

The world is happy at he moment so $2.50 is the lowest it'll go

[winner69]

Very big volumes thru and price bounced.If you have courage, buy.

So it was you buying yesterday

[winner69]

Market is obviously pricing in and expecting a profit downgrade and earnings disappointment. So is the market right?

If TIL's sp trend is any guide, the market has been pretty accurate in the past.

One of the most interesting observations passed to yours truly here over the decades when evaluating a stock's propensity to trend on 'informed' trades is to look at whether the sp gaps on results and price sensitive announcements.

The chart of TIL suggests to me that the informed market is driving the sp.

Leaving the stock well alone until they announce their results or trading update.

Good stuff there Balance me old mate

Charts often tell a story eh

[Beagle]

They say they continue to comply with continuos disclosure stuff.

No surprises - they'll still make about $20m EBITDA this year - but that doesn't cut the mustard being a high growth market darling. Those days are gone.

Back to normal valuations for steady as she goes companies I reckon

The world is happy at he moment so $2.50 is the lowest it'll go

Perhaps more to the point mate is they only made $3.5m after tax for the most recent half year...suppose $7m for the current year, (seeing as goodness may be in the process of being removed from some supermarkets), maybe $4m for the second half so perhaps $7 - 7.5m after tax this year and on 72m shares that EPS of just on 10 cps. At $2.50 they appear to be priced on a forward PE of 25, (unless I am missing something ?) which is pricing normally ascribed to high growth companies. This begs the question of whether they still are a high growth company ?

[sb9]

They say they continue to comply with continuos disclosure stuff.

No surprises - they'll still make about $20m EBITDA this year - but that doesn't cut the mustard being a high growth market darling. Those days are gone.

Back to normal valuations for steady as she goes companies I reckon

The world is happy at he moment so $2.50 is the lowest it'll go

Hey winner, did you notice BWX closed at a full $5 across the ditch...spose TIL shouldn't be compared with that I guess...

[boysy]

10 months into the FY I take it they know fairly reasonably where they are to land from the 1HY results provided 2 months ago (as per commentary released on the 29/11/2016). While goodness is a growing brand Roger this shouldn't materially effect the results as they make up a small portion of total trilogy sales the biggie will be as Balance pointed out how the remainder of the trilogy brands and ecoya have faired. If net profit was anticipated to be only $7.5M (vs $9.2M last year) they would be undershooting their guidance significantly , I take it at the 10 month mark they have a fair idea of where they are likely to land.

TIL reaffirms guidance
We anticipate H2 seasonality to be consistent with previous years, with both revenue and profit being higher than H1.
While China is a significant opportunity, the changing regulatory environment of cross-border e-commerce sales and the nature of local China-bound wholesale accounts in New Zealand and Australia means this market has the potential to be unpredictable.
The recently signed agreement with QBID, our China e-commerce partner, will enable us to build this market over time, giving TIL greater transparency and control of sales into the dynamic China CBEC market.
Based on current trading and company forecasts, subject to FX fluctuations, TIL is tracking to deliver previously disclosed guidance for FY17. TIL expects revenue to be approximately $100-110 million, a 20-32 percent increase compared to FY16.
In line with our strategic priorities and required investment for the future, TIL’s FY17 EBITDA guidance is $19–21 million, representing an increase of 17-19 percent compared to FY16.

[winner69]

Hey winner, did you notice BWX closed at a full $5 across the ditch...spose TIL shouldn't be compared with that I guess...

Yep .... $5.00 is about 17 times F17 ebitda

Compared to 8.5 multiple for TIL on $21m ebitda

Some would say somethings not quite right.

[winner69]

Share price on fire today - near the top oif the leaderboard

Back to 3 bucks next week

No worries

[kizame]

Share price on fire today - near the top oif the leaderboard

Back to 3 bucks next week

No worries

Haha On fire. dead cat bounce.

[Hoop]

Share price on fire today - near the top oif the leaderboard

Back to 3 bucks next week

No worries

....another speed bump?

[bull....]

a conspiracy theory - biggest volume for mths yesterday someone capitulated and someone brought and now we get a speeding ticket on the downside for a bounce for the buyer and the seller to sell into lol

[Beagle]

10 months into the FY I take it they know fairly reasonably where they are to land from the 1HY results provided 2 months ago (as per commentary released on the 29/11/2016). While goodness is a growing brand Roger this shouldn't materially effect the results as they make up a small portion of total trilogy sales the biggie will be as Balance pointed out how the remainder of the trilogy brands and ecoya have faired. If net profit was anticipated to be only $7.5M (vs $9.2M last year) they would be undershooting their guidance significantly , I take it at the 10 month mark they have a fair idea of where they are likely to land.

TIL reaffirms guidance
We anticipate H2 seasonality to be consistent with previous years, with both revenue and profit being higher than H1.
While China is a significant opportunity, the changing regulatory environment of cross-border e-commerce sales and the nature of local China-bound wholesale accounts in New Zealand and Australia means this market has the potential to be unpredictable.
The recently signed agreement with QBID, our China e-commerce partner, will enable us to build this market over time, giving TIL greater transparency and control of sales into the dynamic China CBEC market.
Based on current trading and company forecasts, subject to FX fluctuations, TIL is tracking to deliver previously disclosed guidance for FY17. TIL expects revenue to be approximately $100-110 million, a 20-32 percent increase compared to FY16.
In line with our strategic priorities and required investment for the future, TIL’s FY17 EBITDA guidance is $19–21 million, representing an increase of 17-19 percent compared to FY16.

If the market really believed that why is the SP tanking ?

[janner]

Not sure .. Are TIL heavily invested into Chile for some of their oils.. ??..

Massive out of control fires over there at present..

[winner69]

If the market really believed that why is the SP tanking ?

Not really tanking - just re-adjusting and being rerated from a growth market darling stock with high multiples to a just a run of the mill stock which lacks any excitment

Trilogy came out with that $19m-$21m ebitda guidance late September when share price was $4.50 odd.

Tanked to $3.80 that day and has been steadily declining since - downward pressure in a low volume stock with selling by informed punters (as Balance put it so nicley)

Guidance stills stands so will be making $20m ebitda. No surprises there and at current price about 8.5 times ebitda. Seems about right

[Beagle]

Was $5.00 in mid August 2016, 6 months ago and the 30 day MA is still over $3.00 so that's "tanking" in my book.

EBITDA an overrated yardstick. Even if they make $5.5m this half after last half's $3.5m that $9m after tax and on 72m shares that's eps of only 12.5 cps (PE 20) and an EPS decline from last year.

Turning to the technical's and looking at the chart, you'd be a very brave man to bottom pick here.

[winner69]

Was $5.00 in mid August 2016, 6 months ago and the 30 day MA is still over $3.00 so that's "tanking" in my book.

EBITDA an overrated yardstick. Even if they make $5.5m this half after last half's $3.5m that $9m after tax and on 72m shares that's eps of only 12.5 cps (PE 20) and an EPS decline from last year.

Turning to the technical's and looking at the chart, you'd be a very brave man to bottom pick here.

EPS will be 19/20 cents

PE aboiut 12/13 seems reasonable

Probably make more money next as well

[Bilbo]

Not really tanking - just re-adjusting and being rerated from a growth market darling stock with high multiples to a just a run of the mill stock which lacks any excitment

Trilogy came out with that $19m-$21m ebitda guidance late September when share price was $4.50 odd.

Tanked to $3.80 that day and has been steadily declining since - downward pressure in a low volume stock with selling by informed punters (as Balance put it so nicley)

Guidance stills stands so will be making $20m ebitda. No surprises there and at current price about 8.5 times ebitda. Seems about right

If the rumours of heavy discounting of product are true, that may mean they are pushing hard to meet revenue/sales guidance for the current year. With a growth stock, the current year is not what drives the sp, it is the future years, so guidance for FY18 will be what I'm watching

[Beagle]

EPS will be 19/20 cents

PE aboiut 12/13 seems reasonable

Probably make more money next as well

You might like to check your numbers mate. They raised $50 in capital in June last year.
https://www.trilogyproducts.com/media/pdf/Trilogy%20International%20Limited%20Interim%20Repo rt%20-%2030%20September%202016.pdf

Despite all the fancy talk (corporate speak) of great sales growth and EBITDA growth for the most recent half year EPS after tax was only 5.0 cps for the half compared to 15 cps for the full year last year.
Sales growth and EDITDA growth are one thing but NPAT only grew 10% on an expanded capital base so in the most recent half year EPS after tax was very modest and didn't even match half of last year's result. EPS would have to have been 7.5 cps to even match half of last year so at only 5.0 cps on the weighted average number of shares on issue so I put it to the forum that all this sales and EDBITDA growth means nothing if it can't be translated to EPS after tax growth. Further if anecdotal comments that margins may be coming under pressure are true, this must be a concern for anyone hoping they'll get close to 15 cps this year.

EPS after tax is likely to decline this year from 15 cps last year...remember the Hound called in on here first. I put it to the forum that the reason the SP is tanking is that we're looking at an EPS decline this year so all the fancy sales and EBITDA growth talk means nothing as least as far as FY17 is concerned. (I accept that some investors are thinking further ahead than FY17)

[boysy]

Roger I take it you have not seen the seasonality of the underlying business for both CS CO, Ecoya and to a lesser extent Trilogy sales. To say that EPS is falling is complete nonsense until we see the figures. 15 cps would equate to NPAT of $10.8M assuming they hit the EBITDA guidance of $19-$21M this appears highly unlikely (Note 2H16 they made $11M EBITDA for reference with the forecast suggesting they need to make between $12M-$14M EBITDA in 2H16 to meet guidance).

Of equal interest is the large off market trades 800k yesterday at 2.50 and 500k today at 2.55 who is selling and who is buying

[Snow Leopard]

FY2017 EPS Range: $0.146 -- $0.166

You are allowed to expect some growth in future years.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Time will tell boysy and yes I have reviewed the seasonality of the business. Bottom line is EPS was flat in the Sept half compared with the PCP on the weighted average number of shares on issue.

[winner69]

You might like to check your numbers mate. They raised $50 in capital in June last year.
)

All i'm saying is $21m ebitda (guidance) will result in about $14m npat (plus or minus a bit)

On 72 million shares thats 19.5 cents/share for F17

Just used current number of shares - if calculated on a weighted basis eps prob a little higher

[Beagle]

Well mate by my calculations if they hit the mid point of their sales guidance for the year $105m taking into account sales declared for the half to 30 September sales for 2H FY17 will be only a 6.5% increase on PCP.

Therefore In 2H Fy16 they made 10 cps on a significantly lower number of shares on issue with sales only 6.5% less than what's projected this period (but on significantly less issued shares). 2H Fy17 there appears to be anecdotal reports of margin pressure and grey channel challenges into China and reports of Goodness coming off shelves. Even if they make the mid point of the sales target they have I struggle to see how they'll match last years second half EPS of 10 cps so therefore I see EPS < 15 cps for the year (Bet you a beer on it).

All I'm saying is the best guide to the immediate future is the immediate past. They made 5 cps after tax on $47.7m sales last half on lower weighted average number of shares. This half based on mid point of projected annual sales range they appear to be shooting for $57m sales. Are they really going to make more than 10 cps on sales only increasing $10m this half in what is already seen as the peak half for them especially when margins appear they might be under pressure ?


Of equal interest is the large off market trades 800k yesterday at 2.50 and 500k today at 2.55 who is selling and who is buying
Boysy The buyer is probably PIE funds digging themselves into an even deeper and more intransigent position. What's their escape plan if they've got this one wrong ?

[winner69]

Well mate by my calculations if they hit the mid point of their sales guidance for the year $105m taking into account sales declared for the half to 30 September sales for 2H FY17 will be only a 6.5% increase on PCP.

Therefore In 2H Fy16 they made 10 cps on a significantly lower number of shares on issue with sales only 6.5% less than what's projected this period (but on significantly less issued shares). 2H Fy17 there appears to be anecdotal reports of margin pressure and grey channel challenges into China and reports of Goodness coming off shelves. Even if they make the mid point of the sales target they have I struggle to see how they'll match last years second half EPS of 10 cps so therefore I see EPS < 15 cps for the year (Bet you a beer on it).

All I'm saying is the best guide to the immediate future is the immediate past. They made 5 cps after tax on $47.7m sales last half on lower weighted average number of shares. This half based on mid point of projected annual sales range they appear to be shooting for $57m sales. Are they really going to make more than 10 cps on sales only increasing $10m this half in what is already seen as the peak half for them especially when margins appear they might be under pressure ?

Heck you might be right - but say <15 cents eps = ~$10m npat (maybe less)

If that is going to be the case then I would say they are lying to the NZX today when they say are meeting continuous disclosure thingies seeing ebitda guidance is $19m-$21m

[stoploss]

Heck you might be right - but say <15 cents eps = ~$10m npat (maybe less)

If that is going to be the case then I would say they are lying to the NZX today when they say are meeting continuous disclosure thingies seeing ebitda guidance is $19m-$21m

Winner they have given themselves an out imo with this line "While China is a significant opportunity, the changing regulatory environment of cross-border e-commerce sales and the nature of local China-bound wholesale accounts in New Zealand and Australia means this market has the potential to be unpredictable."

Wait for it as we foreshadowed ..............

[Beagle]

Keep in mind Winner that there were only 62 million shares on issue last year so 16% more shares on issue now ! 2H FY17 sales projected to grow only 6.5% based on mid point of companies own forecast but on the terribly inconvenient truth of 16% more issued shares.
Speaking of awfully inconvenient...last years average exchange rates achieved as per 2016 annual report 92 cents Aust, 67.7 cents U.S. and only 45.1 U.K. pence.
Heck ! you think the current exchange rates might have an effect on export margins this half ?

[Beagle]

Winner they have given themselves an out imo with this line "While China is a significant opportunity, the changing regulatory environment of cross-border e-commerce sales and the nature of local China-bound wholesale accounts in New Zealand and Australia means this market has the potential to be unpredictable."

Wait for it as we foreshadowed ..............

Look how that's impacted CVT and the other minnow listed manuka honey exporter...and then there's the separate issue of counterfeiting.

[winner69]

Winner they have given themselves an out imo with this line "While China is a significant opportunity, the changing regulatory environment of cross-border e-commerce sales and the nature of local China-bound wholesale accounts in New Zealand and Australia means this market has the potential to be unpredictable."

Wait for it as we foreshadowed ..............

If the unpredictable has happened ....and impacted guidance by say 15% wouldn't they be 'compelled' to come clean under continuous disclosure ..... Yes?

[Beagle]

If the unpredictable has happened ....and impacted guidance by say 15% wouldn't they be 'compelled' to come clean under continuous disclosure ..... Yes?

Looking at last years annual report EPS barely registers as a figure. Its all about SALES growth, EBITDA growth in HUGE highlighted sections of their annual report.
EPS is only reported almost only because they have to based on a statutory obligation. They do realise a company is supposed to be all about EPS growth right ?
(anyway the naughty and at times deeply cynical hound shall try and confine himself to his kennel now...the way some companies respond to their continuous disclosure requirements makes me bark too much)

[winner69]

Keep in mind Winner that there were only 62 million shares on issue last year so 16% more shares on issue now ! 2H FY17 sales projected to grow only 6.5% based on mid point of companies own forecast but on the terribly inconvenient truth of 16% more issued shares.
Speaking of awfully inconvenient...last years average exchange rates achieved as per 2016 annual report 92 cents Aust, 67.7 cents U.S. and only 45.1 U.K. pence.
Heck ! you think the current exchange rates might have an effect on export margins this half ?

Believing what they say I'll concede that eps could be as low as 17 cents (using 72 million shares though weighted number will be less eh) but could be as high as 20 cents.

If eps comes in at <15 cents ( your number) the share price will get decimsted and those big buyers this week will be really gutted and pissed off (sellers will be saying if only they knew what I knew)