TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[winner69]

Looking at last years annual report EPS barely registers as a figure. Its all about SALES growth, EBITDA growth in HUGE highlighted sections of their annual report.
EPS is only reported almost only because they have to based on a statutory obligation. They do realise a company is supposed to be all about EPS growth right ?
(anyway the naughty and at times deeply cynical hound shall try and confine himself to his kennel now...the way some companies respond to their continuous disclosure requirements makes me bark too much)

And the announcements to the NZX never mention profit after tax or such things

Growth company, Roger, things like sales and ebitda (proxy for cash flow) are the real metrics

Whoever going to buy them out will only be looking at these things .....and current price at 8.5 times ebitda soon could be an opportune time

[Beagle]

And the announcements to the NZX never mention profit after tax or such things

Growth company, Roger, things like sales and ebitda (proxy for cash flow) are the real metrics

Whoever going to buy them out will only be looking at these things .....and current price at 8.5 times ebitda soon could be an opportune time
Must be only silly old fashioned bean counters that expect growth companies to be growing eps then and expect acquisitions to be eps accretive...heck what does a silly old bean counting hound know anyway...I blame this modern crazy world where shares can be $19 (XRO) and the company has never made a profit. Growth eh...never mind sales per share for 2H FY17 are declining as long as the company can post they have SALES and EBITDA growth in huge bold highlights in the next annual report nothing else matters. No doubt management will get juicy bonus's this year because of sales growth targets being reached...hmmm.

[winner69]

Must be only silly old fashioned bean counters that expect growth companies to be growing eps then and expect acquisitions to be eps accretive...heck what does a silly old bean counting hound know anyway...I blame this modern crazy world where shares can be $19 (XRO) and the company has never made a profit. Growth eh...never mind sales per share for 2H FY17 are declining as long as the company can post they have SALES and EBITDA growth in huge bold highlights in the next annual report nothing else matters. No doubt management will get juicy bonus's this year because of sales growth targets being reached...hmmm.

But Only cheats take the easy way out by of using things like using eps and pe ratios - the silly old fashioned bean counter way is to do the gard yards and do discounted cash flows and economic value added stuff.

A dcf for trilogy with very modest growth assumptions and some margin contraction still comes to an equity value of $2.30 odd (on 72 million shares).

But then the assumptions (and even the baseline) is based on what the company says anywsy - maybe a load of ****e

[Beagle]

DCF's only as good as the bunch of guess's that they're predicated upon. Real world stuff for bean counters mate. Sales expected to grow this half at only 6.5% on PCP and on a 16.2% expanded capital base so on an adjusted basis for the extra capital 1.065 x 62 / 72 = 0.917 sales for the current period now are down 8% per share. I reckon that's a damming indictment on the current growth rate of the company compared to last years sales growth and begs all sorts of questions about future growth rate assumptions implied into some people's DCF model's. Sniffing the breeze I can see sound reasons for the collapse in the SP in recent months as after all nobody likes to see their so called growth company going backwards in share capital adjusted terms do they ! Mark my words, none of these things will be highlighted in the forthcoming annual report. There will only be talk of sales and EBITDA growth and how the company is repositioning itself for future growth e.t.c.. and the horrible inconvenient truth of an EPS decline will not even rate a mention ! A very wealthy client of mine once said to me that many annual reports are "full of it". I used to think he was wrong. Cavalier's most recent one is a prime example of what he was talking about.

[winner69]

With a market cap of $160m Trilogy has a market value added of $90m (difference between mcap and equity)

In silly old fashioned bean counter lingo that is saying the present value of future returns over and above their cost of capital is going to be $90m

Might achieve $4m to $5m of that this year - so a fair bit 'growth' built into current share price

[winner69]

Hope you never do those sort of sums for Heartland going back to when they acquired Seniors and recent cap raises.

[Beagle]

Hope you never do those sort of sums for Heartland going back to when they acquired Seniors and recent cap raises.

Heartland growing EPS mate and forecast too as well. Seniors not the greatest acquisition in terms of its early run rate but it seems to be coming right.

[winner69]

Strong day on the bourse for Trilogy - up 5% plus today

Maybe yesterday was capitulation day and it's upwards and onwards from here

No worries

[Balance]

Must be only silly old fashioned bean counters that expect growth companies to be growing eps then and expect acquisitions to be eps accretive...heck what does a silly old bean counting hound know anyway...I blame this modern crazy world where shares can be $19 (XRO) and the company has never made a profit. Growth eh...never mind sales per share for 2H FY17 are declining as long as the company can post they have SALES and EBITDA growth in huge bold highlights in the next annual report nothing else matters. No doubt management will get juicy bonus's this year because of sales growth targets being reached...hmmm.

A new generation of investors always think they know better.

1980s - M&A frenzy using inflated sp. Result 1987 sharemarket crash.

1990s - Economic growth funded by debt spurred sharemarket boom. Result - 1997 AFC.

2000s - Dotcoms with sp determined by sales multiples! Result - Dotcom crash.

2000s (again) - Exotic risk containment products and leverage using derivatives. Result - GFC.

2010s - you decide.

Thank goodness there are robust discussions going on here and great contributions from the Rogers of the world to keep us thinking (and having nightmares!).

[horus1]

Well I bought some and topped up. Havent sold any on the way down either. Hope they do not plummet. Big volumes going thru, wouldn't be a takeover would it.?

[Snow Leopard]

Well I bought some and topped up. Havent sold any on the way down either. Hope they do not plummet. Big volumes going thru, wouldn't be a takeover would it.?

TeamTalk
Tower
Trilogy

The Takeover Trilogy :p

That has a certain logic to it.
But the bun boys own 30M+ of the 73M+ shares on issue and todays 'we know nothing' suggests that no one talked to their team in the tower.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[kiora]

TeamTalk
Tower
Trilogy

The Takeover Trilogy :p

That has a certain logic to it.
But the bun boys own 30M+ of the 73M+ shares on issue and todays 'we know nothing' suggests that no one talked to their team in the tower.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Top Tattle PT

[Bilbo]

Strong day on the bourse for Trilogy - up 4% plus today

Maybe yesterday was capitulation day and it's upwards and onwards from here

No worries

One swallow does not a summer make

[muss1]

Roger, what's your reasoning for the large difference in conversion of EBITDA to NPAT compared with last year? Also, it's well documented they built inventory in the first half both for CS distribution and higher sales in the second half. Therefore lots of cost already worn for second half

[winner69]

Roger, good work yesterday on Trilogy .....but I can't understand why you are so down on Trilogy

I pulled out a few key financial performance ratios for F15/F16 and put our guesses for F17 in the table

Even you would have to agree that all metrics are pretty healthy, even for F17 using your dismal outlook

The main point (relevant to your points on the ginormous increase in shareholder funds) is that Trilogy ROE and ROIC remains more than respectable and above F15 levels. The extra capital has been put to good use.

A ROIC of 18% this year (my guess) is fantastic - surely adding value.

Suppose the debate is around what is a Trilogy share worth - probably never was worth $5 but current price doesn't look unreasonable - maybe cheap

Just another pennies worth from The Bees Knees

The F17 numbers below are W69 and Roger's guesses. Basis of Rogers 'guess is he mentions mid point of saes guidance and sees EPS <15 cents

[LAC]

My spreadsheet from a year ago has it closer to W69, but I must admit I am not too confident they will get there. Will continue to hold until they announce otherwise




2017


sales
108000.00


sales growth
29.92%


NPAT
14200.00


NPAT/Sales
13%


EPS
0.20


My SP
$3.87

[LAC]

How does one attach images on ST? Need to learn that.

[Vaygor1]

How does one attach images on ST? Need to learn that.

You add it while writing a post.
There are a few ways to do it. This describes one of them.

If it is an image already existing somewhere within your computer (as opposed to an image on a website), make sure the cursor is where you want your image to appear in the post you are writing and then click the Insert Image button:

8679

Click 'From Computer' in the top left of the window that opens.
Click 'Choose File' in the same window and then select it from within the directory window that opens by either double clicking the file or highlighting the file and then clicking 'Choose' at the bottom right. Either way, the directory window will now close.
Click 'Upload File(s)'

A small version of the image will appear in the post you are writing. If you want to see exactly what it looks like before posting it click 'Go Advanced' at the bottom right of the post window and a preview of your post appears up the top with the editable version immediately below it.

Hope this helps.

[kizame]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/attach/jpg.gif

The chart shows 4 capitulations,the last being a gap down and a gap back up,both days with big volume unlike the last three drops.
So thinking maybe this is the turnaround for this stock,being on sale at half off.

[LAC]

Thanks mate, much appreciated.


You add it while writing a post.
There are a few ways to do it. This describes one of them.

If it is an image already existing somewhere within your computer (as opposed to an image on a website), make sure the cursor is where you want your image to appear in the post you are writing and then click the Insert Image button:

8679

Click 'From Computer' in the top left of the window that opens.
Click 'Choose File' in the same window and then select it from within the directory window that opens by either double clicking the file or highlighting the file and then clicking 'Choose' at the bottom right. Either way, the directory window will now close.
Click 'Upload File(s)'

A small version of the image will appear in the post you are writing. If you want to see exactly what it looks like before posting it click 'Go Advanced' at the bottom right of the post window and a preview of your post appears up the top with the editable version immediately below it.

Hope this helps.

[Balance]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/attach/jpg.gif

The chart shows 4 capitulations,the last being a gap down and a gap back up,both days with big volume unlike the last three drops.
So thinking maybe this is the turnaround for this stock,being on sale at half off.

One thing I keep reminding myself - NEVER invest or buy on the way down.

Picking bottoms are for the French!

[Baa_Baa]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/attach/jpg.gif

The chart shows 4 capitulations,the last being a gap down and a gap back up,both days with big volume unlike the last three drops.
So thinking maybe this is the turnaround for this stock,being on sale at half off.

You may be correct, if so that would be an awesome call picking the bottom, a bounce at the 550 day moving average(!). The daily indicators all perked up a bit as well and as you pointed out the huge volume, Money Flow leapt back into positive territory. There's a buyer for every share sold, so clearly the bid side is optimistic as well.

Edit: Those spooky Fibs again, the $2.45 low bounce? is exactly 61.8% retrace of the entire move up from week ending July 17 2015. Make of it what you will.

On the daily trend basis however, and the weekly and monthly charts it's a mess, in a severe slice-your-hand-off-catching-the-falling-knife downtrend.

[bull....]

You may be correct, if so that would be an awesome call picking the bottom, a bounce at the 550 day moving average(!). The daily indicators all perked up a bit as well and as you pointed out the huge volume, Money Flow leapt back into positive territory. There's a buyer for every share sold, so clearly the bid side is optimistic as well.

Edit: Those spooky Fibs again, the $2.45 low bounce? is exactly 61.8% retrace of the entire move up from week ending July 17 2015. Make of it what you will.

On the daily trend basis however, and the weekly and monthly charts it's a mess, in a severe slice-your-hand-off-catching-the-falling-knife downtrend.

nice bounce from the fib alright and i reckon thurs and friday were capitulation days so i brought some see what happens , also it is oversold on the rsi

[winner69]

The stars are all in alignment ....even the NZX says its OK

Not much can go wrong now

Maybe $3 this week ... And then how much more

[Beagle]

Roger, good work yesterday on Trilogy .....but I can't understand why you are so down on Trilogy

I pulled out a few key financial performance ratios for F15/F16 and put our guesses for F17 in the table

Even you would have to agree that all metrics are pretty healthy, even for F17 using your dismal outlook

The main point (relevant to your points on the ginormous increase in shareholder funds) is that Trilogy ROE and ROIC remains more than respectable and above F15 levels. The extra capital has been put to good use.

A ROIC of 18% this year (my guess) is fantastic - surely adding value.

Suppose the debate is around what is a Trilogy share worth - probably never was worth $5 but current price doesn't look unreasonable - maybe cheap

Just another pennies worth from The Bees Knees

The F17 numbers below are W69 and Roger's guesses. Basis of Rogers 'guess is he mentions mid point of saes guidance and sees EPS <15 cents

The impact on sales and margin of the change in tax of only 12% on grey imports in China has been breathtaking as far as CVT is concerned and the other minnow listed manuka honey company and also for other Australian listed health and wellbeing companies.
I think the risk to the sales target is to the downside and the risk to margin is very real. If sales for H2 FY17 are at the bottom end of guidance for the year $100m sales growth will have ostensibly stopped in this half compared to the PCP and that on issued shares that are 16% higher. If margins are also under pressure as I think they probably are from more intense discounting to try and maintain sales and a much higher $Kiwi there is quite a bit of potential for the EPS to really disappoint. If my base case comes true, (acknowledging predicting the future is extremely difficult at the best of times) the shares at $2.60 will be trading on a PE of 260 / 0.13 - 0.14 = 18.5 - 20.0 and that for a company with negative EPS growth. There remains plenty of risk to the downside in my opinion especially from a technical perspective looking at the chart but also from a fundamental perspective through both EPS and PE contraction as the stock is re-priced both for lower earnings and much slower medium term growth, (if any).
I see a lot of risk and a high chance of disappointment with this stock but what would a silly bean counting hound know about smelly stuff and special oils anyway... GLTH and I'll leave it at that.

[Xerof]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/attach/jpg.gif

The chart shows 4 capitulations,the last being a gap down and a gap back up,both days with big volume unlike the last three drops.
So thinking maybe this is the turnaround for this stock,being on sale at half off.

Kizame, from a pure TA candlestick perspective, you have identified a very rare formation, know as a bullish abandoned baby

I know little of this outfit, but the TA signal is saying something

[RupertBear]

Kizame, from a pure TA candlestick perspective, you have identified a very rare formation, know as a bullish abandoned baby

I know little of this outfit, but the TA signal is saying something

So a rare but reliable signal of a trend reversal from my google search! Hmmm tempting!

[winner69]

The stars are all in alignment ....even the NZX says its OK

Not much can go wrong now

Maybe $3 this week ... And then how much more

Not much can go wrong now - nothing can go wrong now with a bullish abandoned baby pattern appearing (thanks xerof)

This week will be exciting

[RupertBear]

Not much can go wrong now - nothing can go wrong now with a bukkish abandoned baby pattern appearing (thanks xerof)

This week will be exciting
You will be buying up large then Winner! :p

[muss1]

The impact on sales and margin of the change in tax of only 12% on grey imports in China has been breathtaking as far as CVT is concerned and the other minnow listed manuka honey company and also for other Australian listed health and wellbeing companies.
I think the risk to the sales target is to the downside and the risk to margin is very real. If sales for H2 FY17 are at the bottom end of guidance for the year $100m sales growth will have ostensibly stopped in this half compared to the PCP and that on issued shares that are 16% higher. If margins are also under pressure as I think they probably are from more intense discounting to try and maintain sales and a much higher $Kiwi there is quite a bit of potential for the EPS to really disappoint. If my base case comes true, (acknowledging predicting the future is extremely difficult at the best of times) the shares at $2.60 will be trading on a PE of 260 / 0.13 - 0.14 = 18.5 - 20.0 and that for a company with negative EPS growth. There remains plenty of risk to the downside in my opinion especially from a technical perspective looking at the chart but also from a fundamental perspective through both EPS and PE contraction as the stock is re-priced both for lower earnings and much slower medium term growth, (if any).
I see a lot of risk and a high chance of disappointment with this stock but what would a silly bean counting hound know about smelly stuff and special oils anyway... GLTH and I'll leave it at that.

Roger, still don't understand your argument. I understand you believe sales are hurting and margins may contract. But are you assuming they won't hit their EBITDA guidance? The guidance they effectively reaffirmed last week.

Otherwise I can't see how you are getting from EBITDA to EPS. We aren't expecting any surprise interest, depreciation or amortisation...

I understand that your view on the company is pretty negative (which is fine - good for discussion), but I just don't understand your numbers

[Beagle]

Hi muss1, just to clarify...I see material risk to the downside in EBITDA. TIL confirming they are not in breech of their continuous disclosure requirements obviously gave the market some comfort on the day but I am skeptical. I think the market is generally very skeptical too, how else do you explain the dramatic decline in the SP in recent months ? Put another way their EDITDA and sales guidance has been known to the market for quite a long period of time but the SP has been dropping like a stone lately and that's with PIE funds buying support digging themselves deeper and deeper into an intransigent position. The way I see it sales growth has dramatically declined for this company and may be close to flat...how do they make 10 cps as per 2H Fy16 this half when they have 16% more shares on issue in that sort of sales environment with a much higher $Kiwi ? What I'm suggesting here is that something simply does not compute which is what started the hound sniffing and digging. Time will tell. It will be an interesting one to follow.

[muss1]

Ok so just to clarify once and for all... your EPS estimates are a result of lower EBITDA rather than guidance EBITDA not finding its way to the bottom line as efficiently?

All the other stuff is unknown and I agree - time will tell. The market was disappointed with the original guidance and nothing has happened to turn things around since. No argument from me on that. The Pie story adds another layer of intrigue!

[Beagle]

Yes that's it exactly muss1. When you hold such a large chunk of a relatively illiquid stock what else can PIE funds do other than to reaffirm they are a believer in the long term growth story and possibly keep increasing their investment ? Digging a big hole for themselves or a brilliant long term investment strategy, time will tell :)

[bull....]

I think the dramatic decline was a fund selling drying to sell out, as the price keeps falling momentum takes over.

hence why you get big volume days at the bottom of the decline, means they throw in the towel and sell everything when a big buyer emerges.


nzx disclosure said there business is still on track everything honky dory so the above makes sense.

[kizame]

So in a nutshell,earnings growth has slowed a lot, so the share price and forward PE have reduced to reflect this.
It looks as though it has bottomed and may recover a wee bit before flat lining.
Without any new developments thats the way I see it,pie funds may be just betting on the business bakery.

[winner69]

Looking good today

That first hurdle of 3 bucks - looking like this week it'll be there

[NZSilver]

moving back up...

[bull....]

As more sellers paniced out of their positions, it created more downward pressure on price. This had the effect of both forcing other long positions to realize their loss before it got even bigger, and making potential buyers step out of the way as the downward pressure was so hard. The lack of buying meant sellers had an even greater effect on price than they would have during other periods.

At some point the panic selling stops, and buyers realize that the price has moved far from its rational value.

http://www.howwetrade.com/market-capitulation-what-is-it-and-how-to-identify/


Why it Matters:There is no guaranteed way to spot capitulation before it happens or while it is happening. However, because capitulations generally reflect the final bottoming-out of a security, prices typically increase after a capitulation. Thus, capitulations can also signal the beginning of a turnaround

[BlackPeter]

Well, yes - it did move up a bit this morning, however on quite weak volume. A handful of small transactions ... could have been people reading this forum and hoping for the "bullish abandoned baby" to bounce.

Watching as an interesting example for TA application ... but not sure I'd see the company at this stage as investment ... well, not with my money anyway :sleep:;

[RupertBear]

Well, yes - it did move up a bit this morning, however on quite weak volume. A handful of small transactions ... could have been people reading this forum and hoping for the "bullish abandoned baby" to bounce.

Watching as an interesting example for TA application ... but not sure I'd see the company at this stage as investment ... well, not with my money anyway :sleep:;


The "abandoned baby" analogy does pull at my heart strings but I think I will leave it to others to come to its rescue ATM ... will be interesting to watch and see what happens thou

[winner69]

The "abandoned baby" analogy does pull at my heart strings but I think I will leave it to others to come to its rescue ATM ... will be interesting to watch and see what happens thou

Rupert - you should be charitable and support abandoned babies

Not many opportunities to do so

[kizame]

2.77 is 38.2% retracement and 2.86 is the 50% lets see where this goes.

[RupertBear]

Rupert - you should be charitable and support abandoned babies

Not many opportunities to do so

The last abandoned baby I tried to support was called Wynyard :scared: it didnt survive and my charitable streak died with it :(. Dont let that stop you though as I sense you could be a Winner with this one :p

[carrom74]

Well, yes - it did move up a bit this morning, however on quite weak volume. A handful of small transactions ... could have been people reading this forum and hoping for the "bullish abandoned baby" to bounce.

Watching as an interesting example for TA application ... but not sure I'd see the company at this stage as investment ... well, not with my money anyway :sleep:;

You are so right Black Peter...Its falling now....

[bull....]

huge volume crossing just went thru , whats that 3m last 3 days

[sb9]

huge volume crossing just went thru , whats that 3m last 3 days

Yeah it was 1.5ml shares transacted at 265...will be interesting to see if last few days volume triggers any SSH notice...

[winner69]

Does it really matter if we see a SSH - as long as punters are buying

Still hoping for the huge takeover offer

[winner69]

Talking of abandoned babies Diligent had one of these near the lows ,,,,and see what happened to them

[winner69]

Capitulations are great

I remember when ATM had one in the 40's - never looked back since has it

That was a good event - same sort of feeling about TIL - in spite of what Roger and Blackpeter are saying, maybe they tryingto down ramp it get it really cheap

[RupertBear]

Milford had a fair whack of TIL maybe they are selling down :confused:

[RupertBear]

huge volume crossing just went thru , whats that 3m last 3 days

I think Winner has been backing up the truck and not letting on! No worries :D

[BlackPeter]

Capitulations are great

I remember when ATM had one in the 40's - never looked back since has it

That was a good event - same sort of feeling about TIL - in spite of what Roger and Blackpeter are saying, maybe they tryingto down ramp it get it really cheap

I do not ramp, winner - neither up nor down.

Just sharing my views and (if relevant) disclosing my holdings ..

Looking at the market mood - I have no clue, whether this will turn into a short spike, a dead cat bounce or a sustained recovery. Since my last post the volume certainly increased (though just due to one big one-off)

Looking at the fundamentals - if the company keeps growing with 10+ percent (a), than it is currently cheap.
- if it is plateauing, than it appears currently dear (b)
- if its customers turn to the next hyped up and expensive cosmetic and candle factory (c), than good bye.

Personally (based on the limited info I have) would I see option b turning at some stage into (c) as more likely than option (a), but who knows - maybe they have a secret weapon up the sleeve?

Discl:
* not holding - and at current price and info no intentions to buy;
* I missed buying ATM at 50 cents (here you go ...), but very much doubt that the price of TIL will more than four-fold from here - even if all stars align with the sun, the moon and the rest of the universe.

[h2so4]

Capitulations are great

I remember when ATM had one in the 40's - never looked back since has it

That was a good event - same sort of feeling about TIL - in spite of what Roger and Blackpeter are saying, maybe they tryingto down ramp it get it really cheap

Maybe they can't justify a $6.35 valuation. LOL!

[Snow Leopard]

Kizame, from a pure TA candlestick perspective, you have identified a very rare formation, know as a bullish abandoned baby

I know little of this outfit, but the TA signal is saying something

Seems TA has a name or two for each and every possible combination of anything :p

Looks like a 'pass the parcel' formation on the volume :blink:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[bull....]

Seems TA has a name or two for each and every possible combination of anything :p

Looks like a 'pass the parcel' formation on the volume :blink:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

pass the parcel lol yes growth fund to conservative fund ya reckon or dividend fund

[Vaygor1]

One thing I keep reminding myself - NEVER invest or buy on the way down.

Picking bottoms are for the French!

I thought John Hopoate was the expert at picking bottoms.
These days he is better known as John Stop-a-farty apparently.

Ref https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ata8F7liAx0

[winner69]

......

Edit: Those spooky Fibs again, the $2.45 low bounce? is exactly 61.8% retrace of the entire move up from week ending July 17 2015. Make of it what you will.

........

Really spooky eh

I have the 50% mark at $2.92 and the 38.2% mark at $3.39

Heading back to those levels methinks

Fibs are numbers found in nature in many ways - seems to go well with Trilogy and their natiural products

[DarkHorse]

Nature's full of 'spooky' numbers and formulas. eg Why does kinetic energy = 1.00000000 m * 1.000000000 c to the power of 2.00000000 ????

On Trilogy, I agree with BP's post - upside potential but too much downside risk to own more than a small holding atm

[Baa_Baa]

Really spooky eh

I have the 50% mark at $2.92 and the 38.2% mark at $3.39

Heading back to those levels methinks

Fibs are numbers found in nature in many ways - seems to go well with Trilogy and their natiural products

Yes, those Fib numbers are close enough on my chart, spooky fibs. Can't say with any confidence that your eternally optimistic view is correct, but at least the trajectory has changed in the right direction.

[Snow Leopard]

Nature's full of 'spooky' numbers and formulas. eg Why does kinetic energy = 1.00000000 m * 1.000000000 c to the power of 2.00000000 ????

On Trilogy, I agree with BP's post - upside potential but too much downside risk to own more than a small holding atm

Actually E = 0.5mv2

This comes about because the unit of Energy - the Joule - is defined in the SI system in terms of the meter, the kilogram and the second and was thus designed to be straight forward.

The original kilogram itself was originally defined as the weight of 1 litre of water so is also based on the meter.

And of course, famously

E = mc2
or
m = E/c2

where c - the speed of light in m/s.

So mass is just light turned to water and thus the length of time - the second - is actually defined in terms of the time taken for the kettle to boil.

Americans still use feet and pounds and gallons because they drink coffee instead of tea, do not have kettles and do not like foreign units coming into their country.

----------

As for fibby ratios, because these are found all over nature and thus the human brain is used to them, chart watchers basically are fooled into buying and selling at particular levels because, subconsciously, it makes their chart look 'nice'.

If you want to break the habit use a log chart.

----------

Further research into the bullish bouncing orphaned baby phenomena reveals that they usually land flat on their face, start crying in short order and no amount of Rosehip oil silences them.

----------

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[RupertBear]

Actually E = 0.5mv2

This comes about because the unit of Energy - the Joule - is defined in the SI system in terms of the meter, the kilogram and the second and was thus designed to be straight forward.

The original kilogram itself was originally defined as the weight of 1 litre of water so is also based on the meter.

And of course, famously

E = mc2
or
m = E/c2

where c - the speed of light in m/s.

So mass is just light turned to water and thus the length of time - the second - is actually defined in terms of the time taken for the kettle to boil.

Americans still use feet and pounds and gallons because they drink coffee instead of tea, do not have kettles and do not like foreign units coming into their country.

----------

As for fibby ratios, because these are found all over nature and thus the human brain is used to them, chart watchers basically are fooled into buying and selling at particular levels because, subconsciously, it makes their chart look 'nice'.

If you want to break the habit use a log chart.

----------

Further research into the bullish bouncing orphaned baby phenomena reveals that they usually land flat on their face, start crying in short order and no amount of Rosehip oil silences them.

----------

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

You are one very clever Tiger PT! Love your posts! :D

[ziggy415]

[QUOTE=RupertBear;654966]You are one very clever Tiger PT! Love your posts.
The number of stripes on a tiger are calculated by a stripe o meter but the area of a tiger skin rug is calculated by the Metre.....

[dodgy]

[QUOTE=RupertBear;654966]You are one very clever Tiger PT! Love your posts.
The number of stripes on a tiger are calculated by a stripe o meter but the area of a tiger skin rug is calculated by the Metre.....

And my understanding is they have a very thick hide and love meandering through bushes.

[bull....]

those abandoned babies spat the dummy just like me, im out.

[winner69]

those abandoned babies spat the dummy just like me, im out.

Yep looks like 260 is the magic number today ....

.....maybe it is what balance said, a bit of market reassurance at the bottom so some can sell into the rise.

[boysy]

That SSH notice due anytime now should help answer a few questions. Surely the co have a fairly good idea where they are expected to land on the revenue and EBITDA front.

Market has priced in a downgrade and slowing future sales will this outlook be revealed in the coming months is the question.

[sb9]

Here it is, the cat's out of bag...

https://nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/296742

Pie has been reducing their holding by the looks...

[pierre]

Yep looks like 260 is the magic number today ....

.....maybe it is what balance said, a bit of market reassurance at the bottom so some can sell into the rise.

SSH notice after 5pm from Pie Funds. They've reduced their holding by 1.3m shares - now hold 6.92% down from 10.29%.

Interesting that their last disclosure was 10 May 2016 - and todays announcement relates to transactions from that date up to yesterday. I thought movements in excess of 1% or more needed to be disclosed at the time. Haven't checked but seems unlikely they sold 1.3m shares in the last few days?

[bull....]

pie been selling all the way down? then someone else selling too? does this mean new lows tomorrow because pie has been selling? I thought pie were recently pumping it up?

[winner69]

Here it is, the cat's out of bag...

https://nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/296742

Pie has been reducing their holding by the looks...

Bulk of sales would have had to go thru the last few days

No worries - just rebalancing the portfolio from an over weight position one reason ...or profit taking.

[h2so4]

That SSH notice due anytime now should help answer a few questions. Surely the co have a fairly good idea where they are expected to land on the revenue and EBITDA front.

Market has priced in a downgrade and slowing future sales will this outlook be revealed in the coming months is the question.

TIL reaffirms guidance
We anticipate H2 seasonality to be consistent with previous years, with both revenue and profit being higher than H1.
While China is a significant opportunity, the changing regulatory environment of cross-border e-commerce sales and the nature of local China-bound wholesale accounts in New Zealand and Australia means this market has the potential to be unpredictable.
The recently signed agreement with QBID, our China e-commerce partner, will enable us to build this market over time, giving TIL greater transparency and control of sales into the dynamic China CBEC market.
Based on current trading and company forecasts, subject to FX fluctuations, TIL is tracking to deliver previously disclosed guidance for FY17. TIL expects revenue to be approximately $100-110 million, a 20-32 percent increase compared to FY16.
In line with our strategic priorities and required investment for the future, TIL’s FY17 EBITDA guidance is $19–21 million, representing an increase of 17-19 percent compared to FY16.

I think the door has been left open for a downgrade.

[muss1]

The date says transaction was yesterday. There was huge volume yesterday with large off market trades so that explains that. What concerns me is Pie told their investors in January they bought more. So something has changed in their view since then...

[trader_jackson]

muss1, are you able to reference where Pie were telling investors they were buying more in January 2017?

Pie has been thrown around a couple times these past few pages... their selling, as revealed today, will have no doubt put some downward pressure on the share price... Also, the 'bounce' looks to have stopped today... maybe not so fast to $3 winner69?

[stoploss]

muss1, are you able to reference where Pie were telling investors they were buying more in January 2017?

https://www.piefunds.co.nz/assets/newsletters/PieFunds-Newsletter-January-2017/Monthly-Newsletter-January-17..pdf

[trader_jackson]

https://www.piefunds.co.nz/assets/newsletters/PieFunds-Newsletter-January-2017/Monthly-Newsletter-January-17..pdf

Thank you, so you think they brought another 1000, then decided to do some re-reading (beyond the headline numbers...), and then dump 1.4 million 'asap'?
The old "pump and dump" strategy gone not so well?

[stoploss]

Thank you, so you think they brought another 1000, then decided to do some re-reading (beyond the headline numbers...), and then dump 1.4 million 'asap'?
The old "pump and dump" strategy gone not so well?

Maybe 60792 ? who knows .

[RupertBear]

The date says transaction was yesterday. There was huge volume yesterday with large off market trades so that explains that. What concerns me is Pie told their investors in January they bought more. So something has changed in their view since then...


So who bought them?! :confused:

[h2so4]

So who bought them?! :confused:

The gamblers.

[stoploss]

Quite right lets see where TIL sits in a months time brokers who cover BWX will be all over TIL like a rash. Seems like TIL is a few weeks behind BWX price action and recent recovery.

Maybe it was the Aussies brokers that cover BWX buying the recent lows @ 2.50 ish Boysy ? Mind you all the volume was on the NZ exchange .....

[Beagle]

The date says transaction was yesterday. There was huge volume yesterday with large off market trades so that explains that. What concerns me is Pie told their investors in January they bought more. So something has changed in their view since then...

Perhaps they have been reading the hounds pontifications and have caught the same scent of trouble coming as I have. I enjoy trying to sniff around the next corner and am pretty sure I have this one right and it seems PIE funds can see my point of view too. $2 far more likely in the foreseeable future than $3 in my opinion. EPS after tax < 15 cps, remember the hound called it first.

[carrom74]

https://www.piefunds.co.nz/assets/newsletters/PieFunds-Newsletter-January-2017/Monthly-Newsletter-January-17..pdf

Thanks for the link Stoploss...Makes me wonder what changed their "long term positive outlook" into dumping about 4% of their holdings...scary days for TIL...

[winner69]

Perhaps they have been reading the hounds pontifications and have caught the same scent of trouble coming as I have. I enjoy trying to sniff around the next corner and am pretty sure I have this one right and it seems PIE funds can see my point of view too. $2 far more likely in the foreseeable future than $3 in my opinion. EPS after tax < 15 cps, remember the hound called it first.

So you reckon the PIE will be selling more over the next few weeks or so - if things are this bad even 5 million shares is just too many eh

[winner69]

Thanks for the link Stoploss...Makes me wonder what changed their "long term positive outlook" into dumping about 4% of their holdings...scary days for TIL...

Sold over 20% of their shares eh

The rest to be sold soon - maybe a Ceasing to be a SSH notice in next day or 2

[stoploss]

Thanks for the link Stoploss...Makes me wonder what changed their "long term positive outlook" into dumping about 4% of their holdings...scary days for TIL...

see my post 1995 , they are giving themselves an out on the guidance , next hiccup they will blame some sort of problem in China . Happy to put a pint on it .....

[muss1]

So you reckon the PIE will be selling more over the next few weeks or so - if things are this bad even 5 million shares is just too many eh

That's the question. Will we see the "no longer a substantial holder" notice. Selling 1m could be put down to anything really - better opportunity etc. But if they continue to sell then something must have changed substantially.

Lots of buyers picking up large parcels over recent times though. Now we know it's not Pie I wonder who it is. Other 2 funds still holding tight with a tick over 5%.

Tricky waters to navigate. Could be capitulation, could be a sign of things to come.

[carrom74]

see my post 1995 , they are giving themselves an out on the guidance , next hiccup they will blame some sort of problem in China . Happy to put a pint on it .....

Read your post but what i still can't understand is that when the announcement was made about China on Nov 29th, the SP was $3.28 and PIE sold it yesterday at $2.65.In short if china issue worries them so much then the should have diluted their holding long ago...if we assume that being the case.

[stoploss]

Read your post but what i still can't understand is that when the announcement was made about China on Nov 29th, the SP was $3.28 and PIE sold it yesterday at $2.65.In short if china issue worries them so much then the should have diluted their holding long ago...if we assume that being the case.

The announcement I am talking about was in the NZX Speeding ticket ( on the downside) enquiry .When you have that many shares it is not easy to sell . They publicly said in January they were adding shares and still liked the story , so recent update might have been the catalyst .

[Beagle]

So you reckon the PIE will be selling more over the next few weeks or so - if things are this bad even 5 million shares is just too many eh

Yes I am certain they will be looking for any reasonable opportunity to extricate themselves from this company. Pretty clear to me that sales per share, i.e. growth adjusted for the increased number of shares on issue compared to the same half last year is now negative and they don't want to invest in a growth company that's stopped growing...very bad for business.

[Beagle]

Read your post but what i still can't understand is that when the announcement was made about China on Nov 29th, the SP was $3.28 and PIE sold it yesterday at $2.65.In short if china issue worries them so much then the should have diluted their holding long ago...if we assume that being the case.

It was only in recent weeks that CVT really shocked the market with its savage downgrade blaming it on China. Takes a little time to add up the disappointing numbers and then a few days more to craft up the usual corporate spin that often comes with these sort of announcements. As stoploss has mentioned they have left the gate wide open for a downgrade something I am also happy to put a pint on happening.

[Thor]

Read your post but what i still can't understand is that when the announcement was made about China on Nov 29th, the SP was $3.28 and PIE sold it yesterday at $2.65.In short if china issue worries them so much then the should have diluted their holding long ago...if we assume that being the case.

Easier said than done when your holding is large relative to the liquidity of the stock. This is always the big risk for fund managers that invest in small caps - they can't easily exit their position. Individual investors have a huge advantage here.

[Yoda]

Bulk of sales would have had to go thru the last few days

No worries - just rebalancing the portfolio from an over weight position one reason ...or profit taking.
Wouldn,t profit taking be done at $4.50 , not 2.60 ? Just asking ......

[NZSilver]

Well I tell you pie selling out was a big surprise to me - I followed the smart money and sold out until results come through

[winner69]

Well I tell you pie selling out was a big surprise to me - I followed the smart money and sold out until results come through

The Pieman must still be selling - how many does he have now

[bull....]

double edged sword for pie they get a share boost when they announce a holding in a stock and get the reverse the other way.

[Balance]

The Pieman must still be selling - how many does he have now

$2.50 sp breached so it's all the way down to $2.00 from here?

Doubt very much it's Pieman still selling - at current levels, they are able to sell stock via crossings and at higher levels (first $2.50, then $2.65). I think it's those who follow the Pieman now jumping out.

Fascinating interplay of who knows what (or not) and how they are playing the game.

So has TIL shut off the information flow at this stage to the analysts and funds who make regular calls on the company until they provide an official market update (which could be negative or could be positive) - spooking PIE to 'rebalance' their portfolio?

But then, who are the ones picking up stock from the Pieman at decent volumes? Are they buying on more 'informed' basis?

[bull....]

very clear down trend channel in play bottom at 2.30

[winner69]

Pieman probably done OK with Trilogy

He was buying pre Sept 2015 at under $1.30

Next newsletter he might even say that the ones they still hold (if they hang in there) are free ones

[carrom74]

Cant figure out the trading pattern today...A lot of about 500 shares changing hands every five minutes. Can anyone clarify this please...

[Balance]

Pieman probably done OK with Trilogy

He was buying pre Sept 2015 at under $1.30

Next newsletter he might even say that the ones they still hold (if they hang in there) are free ones

Amended SSH from the Pieman :




2,666,081 Ord Shares Purchased between NZD2.82 and NZD4.67, totalling
NZD9,889,081

4,026,873 Ord Shares Sold between NZD2.50 and NZD4.97, totalling
NZD12,755,914

So looks like PIE started selling a while ago near the top of the market for TIL last year.

Wonder if they have been massaging the purchases and sales to avoid the 1% movement disclosure threshold.

[winner69]

Amended SSH from the Pieman :




2,666,081 Ord Shares Purchased between NZD2.82 and NZD4.67, totalling
NZD9,889,081

4,026,873 Ord Shares Sold between NZD2.50 and NZD4.97, totalling
NZD12,755,914

So looks like PIE started selling a while ago near the top of the market for TIL last year.

Wonder if they have been massaging the purchases and sales to avoid the 1% movement disclosure threshold.


Wonder if they have been massaging the purchases and sales to avoid the 1% movement disclosure threshold - no Balance, just coincidence eh

[Balance]

Wonder if they have been massaging the purchases and sales to avoid the 1% movement disclosure threshold - no Balance, just coincidence eh

But of course.

FMA, NZX and market integrity.

[winner69]

Cant figure out the trading pattern today...A lot of about 500 shares changing hands every five minutes. Can anyone clarify this please...

Yesterday 574 was the preferred parcel size - today it's 507

Must get boring entering all those trades one by one eh ...I am not a robot

[D. Fender]

Cant figure out the trading pattern today...A lot of about 500 shares changing hands every five minutes. Can anyone clarify this please...

The same thing happened yesterday. It looks like a large shareholder is selling their holding one small piece at a time to try and avoid moving the market. The seller will load a few hundred shares onto the screen and every time that sell order gets hit, they reload another few hundred shares. Standard practice for large shareholders trying to exit a position where there are no buyers for large parcels of shares.

[Balance]

Yesterday 574 was the preferred parcel size - today it's 507

Must get boring entering all those trades one by one eh ...I am not a robot

Yesterday was sell side.

Today is buy side.

Pieman at work? Move 'em down and mow 'em up?

[Balance]

The same thing happened yesterday. It looks like a large shareholder is selling their holding one small piece at a time to try and avoid moving the market. The seller will load a few hundred shares onto the screen and every time that sell order gets hit, they reload another few hundred shares. Standard practice for large shareholders trying to exit a position where there are no buyers for large parcels of shares.

Program trades.

[carrom74]

The same thing happened yesterday. It looks like a large shareholder is selling their holding one small piece at a time to try and avoid moving the market. The seller will load a few hundred shares onto the screen and every time that sell order gets hit, they reload another few hundred shares. Standard practice for large shareholders trying to exit a position where there are no buyers for large parcels of shares.

Thanks for clarifying...If that is the case then the only "big guy" would be business bakery...(with more big guys selling).I just hope that is not...

[winner69]

Wonder what Ausbil and Grandeur Peak Global Advisors, LLC are doing - they may be underwater

[D. Fender]

Program trades.

From Investopedia:


What is an 'Iceberg Order'? An iceberg order is a large single order that has been divided into smaller lots, usually through the use of an automated program, for the purpose of hiding the actual order quantity.

BREAKING DOWN 'Iceberg Order' When large participants, such as institutional investors (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/institutionalinvestor.asp), need to buy and sell large amounts of securities (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/security.asp) for their portfolios (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/portfolio.asp), they can divide their large orders into smaller parts so that the public sees only a small portion of the order at a time - just as the 'tip of the iceberg' is the only visible portion of a huge mass of ice. By hiding its large size, the iceberg order reduces the price movements caused by substantial changes in a stock's supply and demand.

[Snow Leopard]

...2,666,081 Ord Shares Purchased between NZD2.82 and NZD4.67, totalling
NZD9,889,081

4,026,873 Ord Shares Sold between NZD2.50 and NZD4.97, totalling
NZD12,755,914
...

So an average buy price of $3.709 (so probably most bought in or around the capital raise last year)

And an average sell price of $3.168.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[carrom74]

From Investopedia:


What is an 'Iceberg Order'?

An iceberg order is a large single order that has been divided into smaller lots, usually through the use of an automated program, for the purpose of hiding the actual order quantity.

BREAKING DOWN 'Iceberg Order'

When large participants, such as institutional investors (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/institutionalinvestor.asp), need to buy and sell large amounts of securities (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/security.asp) for their portfolios (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/portfolio.asp), they can divide their large orders into smaller parts so that the public sees only a small portion of the order at a time - just as the 'tip of the iceberg' is the only visible portion of a huge mass of ice. By hiding its large size, the iceberg order reduces the price movements caused by substantial changes in a stock's supply and demand.

Wow...I am learning despite bleeding.

Thanks D Fender

[kiora]

So an average buy price of $3.709 (so probably most bought in or around the capital raise last year)

And an average sell price of $3.168.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Ahhhh PT surely simplistic look at it.The average does not equal the mean:)
Around 6m purchased by 5-5-16 when price was $3.25

[Snow Leopard]

Ahhhh PT surely simplistic look at it.The average does not equal the mean:)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNdVynH6hcY

All together on the chorus

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[kiora]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNdVynH6hcY

All together on the chorus

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

BUT Say Average 5.7m purchased by SSH Jan 2016 $.8 to $2.9, brought at average buy price $2.1 =$11.97m
Average 1.4m?(maybe less) purchased at $ 2.9 To $ 3.6 ,average buy price $3.15 =$4.41 m
Average purchase price 7.1m? maximum number of shares owned? =$2.30 not $3.709

So what do we like better,average or mean?

[winner69]

BUT Say Average 5.7m purchased by SSH Jan 2016 $.8 to $2.9, brought at average buy price $2.1 =$11.97m
Average 1.4m?(maybe less) purchased at $ 2.9 To $ 3.6 ,average buy price $3.15 =$4.41 m
Average purchase price 7.1m? maximum number of shares owned? =$2.30 not $3.709

So what do we like better,average or mean?

The SSH of Sep15 and Nov15 would suggest the first 7% bought in well below $2.10 .....many sub $1.40

[Snow Leopard]

BUT Say Average 5.7m purchased by SSH Jan 2016 $.8 to $2.9, brought at average buy price $2.1 =$11.97m
Average 1.4m?(maybe less) purchased at $ 2.9 To $ 3.6 ,average buy price $3.15 =$4.41 m
Average purchase price 7.1m? maximum number of shares owned? =$2.30 not $3.709

So what do we like better,average or mean?

So let us go back to the origin of my numbers: the SSH issued today (https://nzx.com/files/attachments/252942.pdf).

It says since the last SSH:

Buys: 2,666,081 for $9,889,081 or a mean (if you insist) buy price of $3.709;

Sells: 4,026,873 for $12,755,914 or a mean sell price of $3.168.

Simple sums from which you can draw your own conclusions if you want to. I have mine.


I could not give a pair of fetid dingo's kidneys what weird numbers you want to drag into the conversation to justify whatever it is you want to prove.


The Pan Galactic Gargle Blaster (http://hitchhikers.wikia.com/wiki/Pan_Galactic_Gargle_Blaster) is an alcoholic beverage invented by ex-President of the Universe Zaphod Beeblebrox, considered by the Guide to be the "Best Drink in Existence". Its effects are similar to "having your brains smashed in by a slice of lemon wrapped round a large gold brick".

Damn, I am out of lemon slices.
Paper Tiger

[RGR367]

.................


The Pan Galactic Gargle Blaster (http://hitchhikers.wikia.com/wiki/Pan_Galactic_Gargle_Blaster) is an alcoholic beverage invented by ex-President of the Universe Zaphod Beeblebrox, considered by the Guide to be the "Best Drink in Existence". Its effects are similar to "having your brains smashed in by a slice of lemon wrapped round a large gold brick".

Damn, I am out of lemon slices.
Paper Tiger

Por favor, a simple name of Tequila would do El Tigre de Papel. And yes, you'll run out of lemon slices if you own this stock.

[Balance]

The SSH of Sep15 and Nov15 would suggest the first 7% bought in well below $2.10 .....many sub $1.40

Interesting, isn't it?

PIE disclosed 5.99% or 3.7m shares as at Sep 15 - the chart up to then would tend to suggest their entry price up to then would have been well under $1.00.

Next disclosure on 22 Sep saw PIE going to 7.01% at an average of $1.425.

Disclosure on 12 Nov showed increase to 8.22% or 5.07m shares - bought at between $1.52 to $1.65.

28 Jan SSH showed 9.28% with 657,682 shares bought at between $1.65 to $2.92.

10 May showed 10.29% with 636,900 shares bought (and sold) at between $2.92 and $3.49.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Latest SSH shows PIE selling net 1.36m shares at between $2.50 to $4.97 to take shareholding back to 5.0m shares or 6.92%.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Observation :

The shares that PIE has left now were all bought at well under $1.65 per share - more like an average of around $1.25 at a guess.

The shares that PIE bought between Nov 2015 and May 2016 have been sold and PIE certainly would have made money on them - the practice of buying and selling shows that PIE is actively trading the stock.

The fact that PIE was able to cross volume at $2.50 and then, at $2.65 suggests to me that PIE can find volume buyers at over $2.50 so it is unlikely that the last 2 days program buying and selling is PIE!

[D. Fender]

The Pan Galactic Gargle Blaster (http://hitchhikers.wikia.com/wiki/Pan_Galactic_Gargle_Blaster) is an alcoholic beverage invented by ex-President of the Universe Zaphod Beeblebrox, considered by the Guide to be the "Best Drink in Existence". Its effects are similar to "having your brains smashed in by a slice of lemon wrapped round a large gold brick".

Damn, I am out of lemon slices.
Paper Tiger

Since we're quoting HHG2G, this seems oddly appropriate:

“So this is it," said Arthur, "We are going to die."
"Yes," said Ford, "except... no! Wait a minute!" He suddenly lunged across the chamber at something behind Arthur's line of vision. "What's this switch?" he cried.
"What? Where?" cried Arthur, twisting round.
"No, I was only fooling," said Ford, "we are going to die after all.”

[kiora]

So let us go back to the origin of my numbers: the SSH issued today (https://nzx.com/files/attachments/252942.pdf).

It says since the last SSH:

Buys: 2,666,081 for $9,889,081 or a mean (if you insist) buy price of $3.709;

Sells: 4,026,873 for $12,755,914 or a mean sell price of $3.168.

Simple sums from which you can draw your own conclusions if you want to. I have mine.


I could not give a pair of fetid dingo's kidneys what weird numbers you want to drag into the conversation to justify whatever it is you want to prove.


The Pan Galactic Gargle Blaster (http://hitchhikers.wikia.com/wiki/Pan_Galactic_Gargle_Blaster) is an alcoholic beverage invented by ex-President of the Universe Zaphod Beeblebrox, considered by the Guide to be the "Best Drink in Existence". Its effects are similar to "having your brains smashed in by a slice of lemon wrapped round a large gold brick".

Damn, I am out of lemon slices.
Paper Tiger

What about the GIN :)

[44wishlists]

What about the GIN :)

Sure PT is not going to have any 42 Below

[Snow Leopard]

It is at times like this when I am trading Hitch Guide to the Galaxy quotes on the thread of a share I sold out of over 5 months ago that I really wish I had listened to what my mother told me when I was young.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[kiora]

It is at times like this when I am trading Hitch Guide to the Galaxy quotes on the thread of a share I sold out of over 5 months ago that I really wish I had listened to what my mother told me when I was young.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

OK PT.I'll bite.What did your mother tell you?

[Snow Leopard]

It is at times like this when I am trading Hitch Guide to the Galaxy quotes on the thread of a share I sold out of over 5 months ago that I really wish I had listened to what my mother told me when I was young.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


OK PT.I'll bite.What did your mother tell you?

I don't know, I didn't listen.

[RupertBear]

Craigs are still overweight on Trilogy although reduced TP ;)

[Balance]

Craigs are still overweight on Trilogy although reduced TP ;)

What's their new TP?

[kiora]

What's their new TP?

TP $3.70,still a growth stock

[kiora]

I wonder if the down trend after listing in Aus was from traders shorting the stock? Could be a bounce the other way now as per PAY?

[kizame]

I wonder if the down trend after listing in Aus was from traders shorting the stock? Could be a bounce the other way now as per PAY?

The difference between PPH and TIL is that PPH give you figures so that you can see the potential growth,and the fact they are biting into that potential at a fast and consistent rate.
With TIL how do you measure what their potential growth is?

[kizame]

8685


For Baa Baa. Before yesterdays new low.
Sorry it's a bit small,hard to read the numbers.

[BlackPeter]

8685


For Baa Baa. Before yesterdays new low.
Sorry it's a bit small,hard to read the numbers.

I think the picture suffices to convey the message. Graphs starting top left and ending bottom right are normally bad news, unless you are a shorter ;).

[Baa_Baa]

For Baa Baa. Before yesterdays new low.
Sorry it's a bit small,hard to read the numbers.

Thanks kizame, I see now what you mean now.

Weekly chart:
8686

[winner69]

Really spooky eh

I have the 50% mark at $2.92 and the 38.2% mark at $3.39

Heading back to those levels methinks

Fibs are numbers found in nature in many ways - seems to go well with Trilogy and their natiural products

Well the 61.8% retrace at 244 doesn't look like its holding

Maybe 200 is a nice round number that will be support

I'm beginning to think they had a pretty bad Xmas ......and sense a guidance of slack F18 when full year comes out

[sb9]

Well the 61.8% retrace at 244 doesn't look like its holding

Maybe 200 is a nice round number that will be support

I'm beginning to think they had a pretty bad Xmas ......and sense a guidance of slack F18 when full year comes out

Yeah looking likely that way with lower of low prices at 238 currently....may be sub $2 soon the way things are going??

[JeremyALD]

Yeah looking likely that way with lower of low prices at 238 currently....may be sub $2 soon the way things are going??

God it's falling like a rock.

[Beagle]

Yes I am certain they will be looking for any reasonable opportunity to extricate themselves from this company. Pretty clear to me that sales per share, i.e. growth adjusted for the increased number of shares on issue compared to the same half last year is now negative and they don't want to invest in a growth company that's stopped growing...very bad for business. Posted 14 FebruaryI can't see any other result than PIE funds wanting to sell more and with the size of their holding and overhang that poses on the market $2 is definitely on the cards in the foreseeable future, potentially less.

[bull....]

glad I only held for 2 days I might wait for the next abandoned baby pattern or what ever pattern arises at much lower prices current channel this week is in the teens or 2 dollars if you believe others on here , guaranteed that smoking candle is gonna produce an update at some stage

[Balance]

The new evidence I suspect is the fact that companies selling via the grey channel to China (CVT, ONL and BWX) have been more adversely impacted than they originally expected and advised the market.

Trilogy products are definitely been discounted now in the market - Trilogy Rosehip was selling for $37 last year but at health product and skincare shops can be obtained for $31. That's a big drop in margins.

Update on discounting - my partner bought a couple of 30ml bottles of Rosehip from the skincare shop and is told that their prices are going up with the next shipment as TIL has moved their prices back up.

[winner69]

Update on discounting - my partner bought a couple of 30ml bottles of Rosehip from the skincare shop and is told that their prices are going up with the next shipment as TIL has moved their prices back up.

That's good news

Unless it affects demand and the consumers get a bit pissed off and change brands

[RupertBear]

That's good news

Unless it affects demand and the consumers get a bit pissed off and change brands

I bought some more Trilogy products last week and they had a new stand in the shop by the counter and they had some new products as well. :)

[co0p]

It was mentioned in MCP's results presentation that they are looking to start distributing Trilogy products in Singapore. Further strengthening of a key relationship.

Still no update on guidance . Unlikely there will be a downgrade now, especially considering Oct - Dec are the most important months for sales.

[dodgy]

And what has happening in Aussie with the expansive and profit accretive sales alliance ? This must be advantageous.

[co0p]

That was renewed in December.

1H17 saw a 40% increase in sales,but no increase in EBITDA. Slightly concerning.... strength of the NZD would have played a part, probably some "investment" in Goodness too.

[dodgy]

That was renewed in December.

1H17 saw a 40% increase in sales,but no increase in EBITDA. Slightly concerning.... strength of the NZD would have played a part, probably some "investment" in Goodness too.

Thanks I must have missed it and agree dollar wise although I don't think it has strengthened that much

[mondograss]

Guidance last year wasn't out until mid March so might not see anything for a few more weeks.

[Balance]

That's good news

Unless it affects demand and the consumers get a bit pissed off and change brands

If the comment by the skincare/health shop on Queen St, Auckland is indicative of a clearance of Trilogy stock by TIL via discounting, profits could conceivably come in lower than what the company indicated in its Nov 2016 update.

However, the market has already imo priced in a lower profit so a downgrade will not be a big surprise.

An indication in the outlook however that the worse is behind could very well surprise the market on the upside.

Just my thoughts at this stage - not a buyer until the downtrend reverses with a convincing development.

[RupertBear]

Hmm nice to see a wee blip upwards :) Maybe the abandoned baby will find a home afterall :confused:

[Xerof]

no mate, get over the baby, it gone thrown out with the bath water

these candle formations aren't bullet proof, just more often than not. In this particular case, not

[boysy]

Interesting presentation put to Craig's trying to drum up some support. It would appear as though they are gaining market share across NZ and Aus for both TIL and Ecoya but no update on revenue or profit guidance. Has the market priced in reduction in revenue or profit guidance already is the question of this eventuates

[mondograss]

I thought it was interesting that the presentation referenced a couple of buy outs of natural skin care companies by the big players.

[winner69]

I thought it was interesting that the presentation referenced a couple of buy outs of natural skin care companies by the big players.

They been doing the rounds - haven't they?

Hope they find a suitor sooner than later

[winner69]

Only mention of Trilogy in Pie latest newsletter is we should taken more profits in August and September

No more hyping by Pie ...must be quietly buying more

[percy]

Only mention of Trilogy in Pie latest newsletter is we should taken more profits in August and September

No more hyping by Pie ...must be quietly buying more

Thought they would have been buying more PPH now you and Roger are believers?

[sb9]

Only mention of Trilogy in Pie latest newsletter is we should taken more profits in August and September

No more hyping by Pie ...must be quietly buying more


hey winner, big volume traded at open this morning. Pie selling more perhaps...or someone accumulating??


10
1
9:46:16 am
238
532,593
$1,267,571

[boysy]

Pies the obvious seller the million $ question who is picking them up. Will be interesting to see the annual results and how they compare to expectation - to note BWX 12% off highs of August 16 with TIL 48% off highs of the same time.

[LAC]

When is the annual results for this one btw?

[RupertBear]

Pies the obvious seller the million $ question who is picking them up. Will be interesting to see the annual results and how they compare to expectation - to note BWX 12% off highs of August 16 with TIL 48% off highs of the same time.

Milford also owned a fair few TIL at one stage, maybe they are repositioning along with their THL shares?

[Balance]

When is the annual results for this one btw?

Mid May at the earliest.

Take some comfort they have not issued a profit update as market has been expecting a downgrade!

[Blue Skies]

For what it's worth, on a recent trip to the US i did a little direct market research, enquiring at a Whole Foods Store in North Carolina how the Trilogy products were selling.The women in the skincare area of the store said they had an excellent reputation & a steadily growing number of customers coming back and specifically asking for Trilogy products once they had tried them. The organic cert & natural ingredients were important for their customers. She felt more instore demonstrations would be a big help in expanding their customer base.
Disclosure, hold Trilogy shares.

[winner69]

Mid May at the earliest.

Take some comfort they have not issued a profit update as market has been expecting a downgrade!

Suppose that is really good news

Obviously UBS expected better things - they been selling over the last few months. SSH today.

Hope a takeover offer comes soon - only hope for riches now I fear

[mondograss]

UBS Aus are notorious for holding shares just so they can lend them for shorting. If anything I'd say it's a good thing as it might indicate that it's found a floor that even they can't push it through.

[winner69]

UBS Aus are notorious for holding shares just so they can lend them for shorting. If anything I'd say it's a good thing as it might indicate that it's found a floor that even they can't push it through.

I did notice the word borrowing a couple of times in the notice

[IAK]

Latest report from Craig's -(news and views April 2017). Increase - We see current weakness in Trilogy (and Comvita) as an opportunity to add small positions to portfolios. Target price $3.70.

Apparently weak grey channel sales into China has been a problem.

[trader_jackson]

Latest report from Craig's -(news and views April 2017). Increase - We see current weakness in Trilogy (and Comvita) as an opportunity to add small positions to portfolios. Target price $3.70.

Apparently weak grey channel sales into China has been a problem.

$3.70? Wasn't this a bargain never-to-be-seen-again price late last year? (with the asx listing and re-rating about to occur etc... maybe I have my timing wrong)
What was their previous price target?
(Current share price is exactly $1 lower than a year ago)

[percy]

I see last year's eps were 15.05, putting TIL on a PE of 15.81, at $2.38.
I look forward to their May result, to see what this year's eps is,and if they give a forecast for next year.
May then be time to rejoin TIL's share register?

[boysy]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/256007.pdf

So the recent purchaser picked up most of the 4M shares in the past 4 months - details of the co below being an ethical superfund provider

https://www.australianethical.com.au/super/?c=adwords&st=g-414656942-australian%20ethical%20investment%20limited&gclid=CJiFiJS2h9MCFQonvQodhfYA-Q

[stoploss]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/256007.pdf

So the recent purchaser picked up most of the 4M shares in the past 4 months - details of the co below being an ethical superfund provider

https://www.australianethical.com.au/super/?c=adwords&st=g-414656942-australian%20ethical%20investment%20limited&gclid=CJiFiJS2h9MCFQonvQodhfYA-Q

How does that work Boysy , thats not too ethical in my books picking up shares at $ 2.50 and below from those that purchased them $ 3.50 + ??

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/256007.pdf

So the recent purchaser picked up most of the 4M shares in the past 4 months - details of the co below being an ethical superfund provider

https://www.australianethical.com.au/super/?c=adwords&st=g-414656942-australian%20ethical%20investment%20limited&gclid=CJiFiJS2h9MCFQonvQodhfYA-Q

Balanced against that there's two institutions that have recently posted substantial shareholder notices reducing their shareholding.

With the recent apparent Chinese flip flop on back channel import requirements I find it quite interesting that CVT, ATM and on the Australian market a number of companies like Blackmores have rebounded materially yet TIL hasn't. Perhaps the two major intuitions still have plenty of stock to unload and that's effectively capping the price ?

100 day MA still around $3.00.

[Balance]

Interesting sp movement on TIL?

Going up on bugger all volume.

Usually means something.

[boysy]

Well we got through to now without a profit downgrade which was expected by many here. The question being how will the result look next month and the outlook going forward

[boysy]

Another decent day with decent volume this time ...

[horus1]

You have to have faith. I have been nibbling buying for the last 2 months.

[carrom74]

TIL is getting hammered from its heights of $2.70 just few weeks ago. From then its all downhill....especially after their results date announcement. Wonder why...

[RupertBear]

TIL is getting hammered from its heights of $2.70 just few weeks ago. From then its all downhill....especially after their results date announcement. Wonder why...

Yep dont know why either, probably cant be good, but I have a punt at 2.36 :eek2:

[Elles]

Yep dont know why either, probably cant be good, but I have a punt at 2.36 :eek2:
Looks like you got there! I'm waiting to see how far it will drop first...

[RupertBear]

Looks like you got there! I'm waiting to see how far it will drop first...

I HOPE we have hit the bottom and its all up from here :confused:

[Elles]

I HOPE we have hit the bottom and its all up from here :confused:
Yes, hopefully, but who knows... I've bought a few stocks recently on a downtrend, and while I thought they were good value they then went even further down. Hard to predict what's going to happen, so trying to be cautious/patient, although I'll try to buy before their FY17 results announcement later this month.

[RupertBear]

Yes, hopefully, but who knows... I've bought a few stocks recently on a downtrend, and while I thought they were good value they then went even further down. Hard to predict what's going to happen, so trying to be cautious/patient, although I'll try to buy before their FY17 results announcement later this month.

Yep I hear you! I kick myself every time I buy in a down trend but I cant seem to help myself! Hope you get some at a good price and they surprise the market with good news and up she goes!! :D

[JoeGrogan]

Some big volumes at 2.30, wonder if it will hold.

[sb9]

8
4
10:37:09 am
230
1,250,000
$2,875,000
Off Market



Big cross trade, wonder who the buyer and seller is..

[JoeGrogan]

8
4
10:37:09 am
230
1,250,000
$2,875,000
Off Market



Big cross trade, wonder who the buyer and seller is..

indeed, that transaction seems to have cleared the big number of sellers that were sitting there the last few days.

[sb9]

1
1
9:01:13 am
230
1,912,627
$4,399,042
Off Market



Another large crossing...

[mondograss]

If it's the same buyer, then they have a minimum of 4.35%.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Will be interesting to see who the buyer and seller is. Potentially the end of the sell down given the large volume trade with odd number and only retail sell action all day Friday. Expecting some more volatile moves in this over the next few weeks...

[percy]

The annual result is being announced on Friday 26th of May.
So not long to wait.
Should be "interesting".
I currently don't hold.

[JoeGrogan]

The annual result is being announced on Friday 26th of May.
So not long to wait.
Should be "interesting".
I currently don't hold.

With no downgrade in guidance like many expected the result will be very interesting. An update on whether there has been any traction with Chinese e commerce would be nice too. On another note i'm keen to see what the sp does leading up to results day.

[mondograss]

The McPhersons (ASX.MCP) annual report a few months ago implied that TIL products were continuing to sell well across the ditch and that they were a strong performer from their portfolio, but no specific numbers were forthcoming.

[mondograss]

Looks like it's been AusBil getting out.

[winner69]

Looks like it's been AusBil getting out.

Is that good or bad ......they been pretty supportive

But as Tim says there's been a lucky buyer picking up things cheap!

[LAC]

Unless they know something we dont, I cant see how it can be bad news, TIL has not released any news that are of a concern for me. Based on their results on the 26th will be when I decide to stay in or drop out of TIL but I have reduced a few months ago. If they hit their forecast (even though some say its not as high as they wanted it to be), I will be happy. At least I know they will do what they forecast - if they are well below forecast and not updated the market, then that will be it for me but making all these calls while the company has not released any info is pretty hard imo.

[sb9]

Is that good or bad ......they been pretty supportive

But as Tim says there's been a lucky buyer picking up things cheap!

What's interesting is their timing to offload majority of their stake which is few weeks before FY results are due...

[JoeGrogan]

Yeah i'm expecting that they are going to hit their forecasts as nothing has been disclosed to the market. The forecasted growth just wasn't enough to justify a $5 sp, however, the current sp seems 'fair' for what they are forecasting. The big question is what guidance will be given for next year (if any)?
Next year could be a good year of growth if they can translate increased revenue and EBITDA into higher NPAT (assuming of course they hit this years targets).

[Balance]

Is that good or bad ......they been pretty supportive

But as Tim says there's been a lucky buyer picking up things cheap!

Looks like they bought their shares via the placement in June 2016 at $3.70 and bought more at $4.20.

Selling out at around $2.30 - quite a haircut but they are big boys.

[Balance]

Looks like it's been AusBil getting out.

Another 599,000 shares to go?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Another 599,000 shares to go?

You're likely right. Crossings going through 4% higher though so someone's keen.

[babymonster]

Seems everyone is expecting an average or below result judging from the sp

[JoeGrogan]

Seems everyone is expecting an average or below result judging from the sp

So far only a couple of small selldowns today, the market seems to be treading with caution until the results are known. Those buying today are pretty ballsy lol

[IAK]

Down another 5 cents to $2.30 hmmm and FY17 Annual Results announcement tommorrow.

[carrom74]

Seems everyone is expecting an average or below result judging from the sp

TIL is just 8c away from its yearly low...Doesn't seem right especially a fall like this preceding results day tomorrow.

[winner69]

TIL is just 8c away from its yearly low...Doesn't seem right especially a fall like this preceding results day tomorrow.

And about 50% down from its yearly high

Been a long drawn out year eh ........for what once was a market darling

[sb9]

And about 50% down from its yearly high

Been a long drawn out year eh ........for what once was a market darling

Exactly around this time last year its was going great guns, not to mention the cap raise at $3.35 a piece.

[boysy]

Let's see the results tomorrow I take it the market has priced in them a) not hitting either headline revenue or EBITDA guidance and b) the growth story dissapearing. Will be interesting watching either way.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/301714Wow th

Rescheduled the release of FY17 Annual Results to Friday afternoon? They announced the time and date over a month ago and the night before, a few minutes after market close (conveniently?) , they delay it for half a day?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

The results should provide clear guidance for the stock - this has been lacking for many months. If guidance is met at the low range, I do not see downside from a fundamental perspective. That would be $19mil EBITDA and $100mil rev on a current mcap (@230) of 167m. The forward guidance is going to be a big SP driver I believe - has growth dropped off completely or can they maintain a reasonable growth rate?

If growth begins to normalise or stagnate, the Business Bakery are either going to create growth (likely through acquisition) or they are going to have an exit strategy.

I wouldn't read into reasons for a half day delay in results... there are many potential reasons for this.

[QOH]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/301714Wow th

Rescheduled the release of FY17 Annual Results to Friday afternoon? They announced the time and date over a month ago and the night before, a few minutes after market close (conveniently?) , they delay it for half a day?
Don't they say Friday afternoon is always a good time to announce bad news.

[babymonster]

Don't they say Friday afternoon is always a good time to announce bad news.
yes, pretty much always the case. this doesn't look good to me...

[JohnnyTheHorse]

yes, pretty much always the case. this doesn't look good to me...

After market close on a Friday is the usual for this. If they were trying to hide anything (which doesn't actually work anyway) then they would release then. They certainly wouldn't be holding a conference call either. Delays like this are usually operation e.g. delays in audit sign offs, issues with getting their fancy graphics just right.

You could be right though - things could be pear shaped!

[JoeGrogan]

yes, pretty much always the case. this doesn't look good to me...

Could cause a sell down this morning?

[winner69]

Delay no worries - it'll be all fine

EBITDA >$20m

Probably something like Board meeting not finishing until lunch time or something

[LAC]

Im not liking the timing change to be honest....

[co0p]

One explanation could be the time differences between NZ and Aus. 10am in NZ is pretty early in parts of Australia....

[co0p]

Delay no worries - it'll be all fine

EBITDA >$20m

Probably something like Board meeting not finishing until lunch time or something

Would be stoked with this.

[boysy]

Hopefully the reason for the delay is at least covered in the announcement at 2-30pm.

The Biggie in the announcement will be the EBITDA figure, clearly to hit the bottom of the revenue target they needed zero growth on last years 2nd half results. Hopefully they have not blasted the revenue target to scrape in on the EBITDA guidance range. This being said I think it would be a big win for them to simply make the stated ranges based on the SP performance of late.

Its worth nothing a large number of people on this thread wrote off them hitting their stated targets and this no doubt has weighted down the SP. Not long to wait to see what the results are and outlook going forward. BWX back near all time highs perhaps its trilogies time in the sun again should they provide a positive earnings/profitability/outlook surprise.

[sb9]

One explanation could be the time differences between NZ and Aus. 10am in NZ is pretty early in parts of Australia....
I don't think that really matters...if a company is domiciled in NZ like other big dual listed companies AIR, FBU and ATM they all release results prior to NZX opening on results day.

[trader_jackson]

Its worth nothing a large number of people on this thread wrote off them hitting their stated targets and this no doubt has weighted down the SP. Not long to wait to see what the results are and outlook going forward. BWX back near all time highs perhaps its trilogies time in the sun again should they provide a positive earnings/profitability/outlook surprise.

Even more people on this form laughed at me for giving them a (about) $3 price target... when they well over $4... now probably wishing I was right... but yes, all will be revealed soon.

I still love the BWX comparison... I've compare them on this very form, numbers and all, yet it still amazes you can compare "lead with gold"... just like how the ASX listing was going to boost liquidity and increase the share price? ;) anyhow, we'll see shortly.

Seeing they didn't release any update on guidance, worst case: I would expect them to be bang on the bottom... if they don't meet at least bang on the bottom of their stated targets, this will be very naughty of them and the market will (well at least should) punish them accordingly.

Good luck to the holders.

[Ace]

Even more people on this form laughed at me for giving them a (about) $3 price target... when they well over $4... now probably wishing I was right... but yes, all will be revealed soon.

I still love the BWX comparison... I've compare them on this very form, numbers and all, yet it still amazes you can compare "lead with gold"... just like how the ASX listing was going to boost liquidity and increase the share price? ;) anyhow, we'll see shortly.

Seeing they didn't release any update on guidance, worst case: I would expect them to be bang on the bottom... if they don't meet at least bang on the bottom of their stated targets, this will be very naughty of them and the market will (well at least should) punish them accordingly.

Good luck to the holders.

That $4+ valuation was based heavily on the delivery of expected future performance - I have to say, I'm not at all surprised the SP has dropped since then.

[Benny1]

I've just come back from a trip to the USA ( ahh..the agony of economy on AIR...not fun...but that's for another place!) and was quite impressed to find their products on the shelf at a well known Supermarket chain up there.
Wife also loves their products...so will be interested in whats going on...at the current price it does seem kind of interesting....

[Everwood]

The results are out https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/301796
Disappointed with the 4.5 cent dividend which is lower than last year.

[Meister]

20% EPS growth and they expect the same next year? Thats not bad

[horus1]

Great result. You have to have faith. The same comment applies to comvita. I have bought a few over the last 3 months.

[Snow Leopard]

Well we can see why the delay:

That is one long Independent Auditor's Report, seems they have had some real concerns and they must have been up all night writing it up!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[trader_jackson]

20% EPS growth and they expect the same next year? Thats not bad

Not bad actually, share price has reacted accordinly... may even get back to my price target eventually.
Operating cash flows healthy, as with debt.
Growth clearly slowing (big time), along with gross margin.

[co0p]

At first glance this looks pretty good.

[co0p]

At first glance this looks pretty good.

Apart from Ecoya

[mondograss]

Yep, so a reduction in dividend and basically no growth beyond CS & Co is how I read it. (OK a little bit of growth in Aus, but that's about it).

[winner69]

Apart from Ecoya

As I've said many times need to ditch the candles - a drag on performance and a real distraction

Free up the resources and focus on things that matter

Whst would Ecoya be asa standalone business - squat all

[LAC]

I am happy with that, not great but I am happy. Would have liked a slightly higher NPAT on that revenue as I had it at 13.1mil but higher EPS growth and reduction in debt.
Lower divie not ideal but they have said it's for future growth, I wonder if there will be an acquisition this year, really hope the capital isnt used for Ecoya's branding. Or better yet maybe sell off Ecoya all together. If the hit their FY18 forecast I will be a happy holder.

[JoeGrogan]

I'm surprised with the NPAT as i was expecting the 10.5m forecasted on 4traders. Will have a more thorough look over the result tonight, but at first glance i think i will continue to hold.

[carrom74]

A bit surprised with a subdued market reaction....Back to the same level as yesterday. May fall further too.

[BlackPeter]

Well we can see why the delay:

That is one long Independent Auditor's Report, seems they have had some real concerns and they must have been up all night writing it up!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Well, yes - this must be the longest list of auditor's excuses I've seen so far in any annual report. Just wondering whether they bought some shares in some Indonesian papermill or whether they are really that concerned to limit their potential liabilities?

[winner69]

A bit surprised with a subdued market reaction....Back to the same level as yesterday. May fall further too.

Probably because ebitda came in at lower end of guidance and NPAT of $12m odd included that $1m adjustment (which saved the day?) ........and the guidance forF18 is a bit wishy washy.


And talk of reducing margins maybe has some worried.

I'll need a few wines to get around the conflicting numbers in the financials and the presentation pack. Management seem to prefer the presentation stuff so better use those eh

But heck they going to make more dosh this year so no worries

[JoeGrogan]

PE of 12.7 if using EPS of 18c. NPAT up 35%. EPS growth of 20% --> Looks ok to me.

"Excluding acquisition costs and the loss attributable to the investment in TIL's newest brand Goodness, EBITDA would have been $21.1 million."

I wonder if they had reported $21.1m, whether or not that would have been enough to shift market sentiment?

[winner69]

Down 3 at close - spose could have been worse

Next week could be better .......or else long long wait to the half year

Hope Ross still touting the business around the traps. Takeover seems best route to riches

[winner69]

Joe - back out something for a full year of CS and that $1m adjustment the increase in NPAT doesn't look that flash

Wouldn't that $1m 'investment' in Goodness helped the reported sales growth? So a bit mischievous trying to say 'if we exclude' ebitda would have been better. Investment needed to stay in the game

[horus1]

They are doing due diligence as well as audit. It seems to me they have to be careful. But i'd say they thought there should be some impairment.It is a very detailed audit report.

[JayRiggs]

I don't understand the bit about Cs&Co contingent consideration.

NPAT of $12.7 million, an increase of 35% including the benefit from the CS&Co contingent consideration adjustment
CS&Co contingent consideration
•Contingent consideration discount unwind was in line
with the prior year as expected.
•An adjustment was also made to contingent
consideration based on the updated estimate of the
second earnout payment.
•The earnout calculation is currently under review and as
such a final earnout amount is yet to be agreed

I've quickly googled this:

Contingent consideration is the amount paid by the acquirer of a target company to the former owners of said company in case of the occurrence of certain future events. The exact events and their terms are outlined in the acquisition agreement entered into by both parties at the time of signing.
But still don't understand. Can someone with more financial know how explain please?

Also I see the 4.5c dividend excludes the Cs&Co earnings. Why is this?

The result doesn't look bad to me anyway. I haven't really looked into BWX, but they're trading on like 30 x earnings.
Gosh imagine if TIL was on that... it'd be $5.40 now!:scared:

Given today's result, what is a fair PE to put TIL at?
Say they can do +20% a year going forward, 20 would be fair? A $3.60 share price.

[winner69]

I don't understand the bit about Cs&Co contingent consideration.


I've quickly googled this:

But still don't understand. Can someone with more financial know how explain please?

Also I see the 4.5c dividend excludes the Cs&Co earnings. Why is this?

The result doesn't look bad to me anyway. I haven't really looked into BWX, but they're trading on like 30 x earnings.
Gosh imagine if TIL was on that... it'd be $5.40 now!:scared:

Given today's result, what is a fair PE to put TIL at?
Say they can do +20% a year going forward, 20 would be fair? A $3.60 share price.

Jay - Look at Note 22 d) in the Financial Statements as per link re the contingent consideration. There is a little story that explains it all
https://nzx.com/files/attachments/258987.pdf

Last year they thought they had to another $7m to pay as an earn out - a year on they reckon it will be $6m so have a favourable item of $1m in the P&L this year. Final figure to be agreed though

Read that note and it will be clear as mud - written by an accountant of course

[RupertBear]

Jeepers its all to much for my little brain! Cant decide if its a good result or not? Cant decide whether to hold or sell a few :confused: time for another beer and then it may become clear! :D

[percy]

Jay - Look at Note 22 d) in the Financial Statements as per link re the contingent consideration. There is a little story that explains it all
https://nzx.com/files/attachments/258987.pdf

Last year they thought they had to another $7m to pay as an earn out - a year on they reckon it will be $6m so have a favourable item of $1m in the P&L this year. Final figure to be agreed though

Read that note and it will be clear as mud - written by an accountant of course

Does the lower earn out mean the business brought is not performing as expected.?

[janner]

Jeepers its all to much for my little brain! Cant decide if its a good result or not? Cant decide whether to hold or sell a few :confused: time for another beer and then it may become clear! :D

Forget the crystal gazing RB. :-))))))

Look at the TA Look at the FA ... Then toss the coin. :-)))

Seriously RB if it was a piece of cake .. We would not be on here trying to understand..

Just be very sure you are happy with the decision when you push the button.

Win some.. Ride them.. Lose some . Get off !!!! .. At least until you become confident ..

DYOR..

[winner69]

Does the lower earn out mean the business brought is not performing as expected.?

Now now percy - putting doubt in people's mind

The targets were probably 'stretched'

[janner]

Now now percy - putting doubt in people's mind

The targets were probably 'stretched'

Candle wax is very elastic...

[golden city]

It finally comes down to realistic valuation

[golden city]

As I mentioned before. It is over valuation and going too fast before

[winner69]

Jeepers its all to much for my little brain! Cant decide if its a good result or not? Cant decide whether to hold or sell a few :confused: time for another beer and then it may become clear! :D

Hey Rupert - as bears have one of the largest and most convoluted brains of all mammals .....and one of the most intelligent that TIL report must be really really very confusing

I sort of agree

[percy]

Now now percy - putting doubt in people's mind

The targets were probably 'stretched'

So the actual result means they have "shrunken".?

[winner69]

So the actual result means they have "shrunken".?

One thing hat has shrunken is the candle division

Sold $21m worth of exorbitantly priced candles .......and made less than a $1m profit. (Much less than last year)

[winner69]

Boysy and sb9 - your silence since he announcement is deafening

Would love to hear what you think

[boysy]

By and large very happy with the result Winner69 far better than most on here were expecting. Remember there was talk that they were going to miss both revenue and EBITDA targets and even mention of EPS going backwards. Best to break down into what was good and what was bad in the announcement.

Positives - Hit revenue guidance, hit EBITDA guidance, Trilogy & CS Company both grew strongly (particularly impressed with the CS results far ahead of where i thought they would be clearly they are seeing the benefits of synergies and now distributing trilogy throughout NZ), Trilogy particularly so in Aussie with +44% growth (plenty more upside to improve marketshare beyond current ~11% - strong growth in this market) , mention of the China situation improving (i note these sales would be included in ROW which were up 35%), reduction in debt to $7.6M (-76%), better operating cashflow (questions were previously raised about level of stock impacting performance going forward, EPS at $0.18 (+20%) a strong result in light of expectations of a number of commentators on this thread.

Negatives - Ecoya results were ugly - winner69 might have a point to offload the candles to a cashed up buyer, TIL sales growth in NZ slowing down (this appears to have been impacted by the change in buying behaviour of the daigu channel - could this change on China amending their stance), Trilogy sales in the states falling 20% (albeit the contribute 5% of revenue for Trilogy), reduction in dividend to 4.5c (Im a happy holder as long as they invest the money in an addition short term).

In short if they can continue to grow where they have been growing this year (mainly Trilogy and in Aussie) as mentioned in the outlook section FY18 should be a continued improvement on a EPS basis of +20%. Hard to see much downsides at these levels especially if they continue to grow profitably, would be good for analysts to run the ruler over the updated results and provide a steer of fair market value.

Hard to say TIL is overpriced on a PE ratio of under 13 assuming EPS grow at 20%

[RupertBear]

By and large very happy with the result Winner69 far better than most on here were expecting. Remember there was talk that they were going to miss both revenue and EBITDA targets and even mention of EPS going backwards. Best to break down into what was good and what was bad in the announcement.

Positives - Hit revenue guidance, hit EBITDA guidance, Trilogy & CS Company both grew strongly (particularly impressed with the CS results far ahead of where i thought they would be clearly they are seeing the benefits of synergies and now distributing trilogy throughout NZ), Trilogy particularly so in Aussie with +44% growth (plenty more upside to improve marketshare beyond current ~11% - strong growth in this market) , mention of the China situation improving (i note these sales would be included in ROW which were up 35%), reduction in debt to $7.6M (-76%), better operating cashflow (questions were previously raised about level of stock impacting performance going forward, EPS at $0.18 (+20%) a strong result in light of expectations of a number of commentators on this thread.

Negatives - Ecoya results were ugly - winner69 might have a point to offload the candles to a cashed up buyer, TIL sales growth in NZ slowing down (this appears to have been impacted by the change in buying behaviour of the daigu channel - could this change on China amending their stance), Trilogy sales in the states falling 20% (albeit the contribute 5% of revenue for Trilogy), reduction in dividend to 4.5c (Im a happy holder as long as they invest the money in an addition short term).

In short if they can continue to grow where they have been growing this year (mainly Trilogy and in Aussie) as mentioned in the outlook section FY18 should be a continued improvement on a EPS basis of +20%. Hard to see much downsides at these levels especially if they continue to grow profitably, would be good for analysts to run the ruler over the updated results and provide a steer of fair market value.

Hard to say TIL is overpriced on a PE ratio of under 13 assuming EPS grow at 20%

Thank you Boysy really helpful analysis

[horus1]

Great analysis . I'll top up when I get more cash