TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[whatsup]

Cap raising today, any ideas as to what price considering that the $1.00 IPO has not been achieved post float
.65 per share as approx $12 mil is wanted from instos.

[Jaa]

Cap raising today, any ideas as to what price considering that the $1.00 IPO has not been achieved post float
.65 per share as approx $12 mil is wanted from instos.

Shows the value of a share market listing eh?

Trilogy would have struggled to list by themselves even though they seem to a very well run company with a lot of growth potential. Have bought quite a few Trilogy products as presents for the women in my life as they all rave about their products.

Ecoya was struggling for respectability alone but with Trilogy should become a viable company over time.

As to the price, depends how much the bakery takes up I guess.

[whatsup]

Cap raising today, any ideas as to what price considering that the $1.00 IPO has not been achieved post float
.65 per share as approx $12 mil is wanted from instos.

Cap raising at .75 and a SPP available to all holders.

[CJ]

They should have purchased Trilogy prior to listing and had it integrated. It would have been a far better proposition rather than listing a candle company!

[GR8DAY]

yea m8...........huge worldwide demand for scented candles right now.........esp High Tech ones!! LOL if you bought into this nonsense you get what you deserve!!

[Anna Naum]

Cap raising at .75 and a SPP available to all holders.

Cap raising looks like it has gone to the directors.

[CJ]

Cap raising looks like it has gone to the directors.Well at least it is a sign of confidence.

[Anna Naum]

Depends on how you see the glass. Two cap raisings now that Directors have had to front up for and that most large investors in the market have passed on.

[Balance]

Well at least it is a sign of confidence.

Directors having to pick up the majority of the placement shares do not equate sign of confidence = institutions are not buying the story.

As for the over-subscription, yet another spin from the masters-of-spin.

Good on them though. NZ needs people like them.

[CJ]

Depends on how you see the glass. Two cap raisings now that Directors have had to front up for and that most large investors in the market have passed on.


Directors having to pick up the majority of the placement shares do not equate sign of confidence = institutions are not buying the story.I did mean sign of confidence from the directors, not the market in general. I wouldn't have thought Fyfe would put money in unless he thought it was a go-er. Personally I think I will wait for it to go lower before even thinking about it.

But as one of the few listings on the NZ market this year, it is interesting to follow.

[GR8DAY]

Directors having to pick up the majority of the placement shares do not equate sign of confidence = institutions are not buying the story.

As for the over-subscription, yet another spin from the masters-of-spin.

Good on them though. NZ needs people like them.

YEA Balance.......like a hole in the head! Masters of Spin are NOT required in this country or any country for that matter. They are deluding themselves and many unsuspecting folk out there that they have a viable business story to sell.........I very much doubt it. Their one and only interest I suspect is to do another "pump-and-dump" to line their own pockets.........and the best they cud manage is a candle making business.....OH PLEASE! OH DEAR GOD SPARE ME>>>wot an embarrasment to our market.

[Balance]

YEA Balance.......like a hole in the head! Masters of Spin are NOT required in this country or any country for that matter. They are deluding themselves and many unsuspecting folk out there that they have a viable business story to sell.........I very much doubt it. Their one and only interest I suspect is to do another "pump-and-dump" to line their own pockets.........and the best they cud manage is a candle making business.....OH PLEASE! OH DEAR GOD SPARE ME>>>wot an embarrasment to our market.

These guys created over $100m of value from 42 Below - all said and done.

Much better than ever more speculative real estate coastal properties, don't you agree?

[mr.needs]

Directors having to pick up the majority of the placement shares do not equate sign of confidence = institutions are not buying the story.

Institutions know best do they?

[upside_umop]

These guys created over $100m of value from 42 Below - all said and done.

Much better than ever more speculative real estate coastal properties, don't you agree?

The question is can they do it again?

42 Below have still not made a profit, even with the synergies of Bacardi.

[GR8DAY]

..........that's right UU.........Masters of Spin indeed, even the big boys can be fooled if your'e good enough........well maybe some of them some of the time..........but not all of us.......

[Balance]

The question is can they do it again?

42 Below have still not made a profit, even with the synergies of Bacardi.

1. How do you know 42 Below is not profitable now?

2. Irrelevant in any case as FTB's strategy all along was to build a brand and sell for a profit.

[Balance]

Institutions know best do they?

LOL - they certainly get better access to infor than the average punter out there.

And like everything else in life,, there are good institutions just as there are mostly bad ones.

[upside_umop]

1. How do you know 42 Below is not profitable now?

2. Irrelevant in any case as FTB's strategy all along was to build a brand and sell for a profit.

Was stated in an article just this year. I think I posted it somewhere on here at the time.

[winner69]

Promoting themselves across the Tasman ..... with the suggestion that this will be a $100m plus takeover by some cosmetic ginat one day

Product increasing its global presence by the looks of it as well


This year, Ecoya made a loss of $NZ2.3m and has forecast to make another loss of $NZ5.2m next year. But the brand has come a long way and is now stocked in David Jones in Australia, Bloomingdales in the US, Lane Crawford in Hong Kong and Takashimaya in Singapore.
Last week, Schweighoffer signed a deal with a distributor to sell its products in Dubai.[/QUOTE]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/natural-ingredients-provide-fragrance-of-success/story-e6frg8zx-1225978217283

[gregrday]

Hey guys, just wrote a first round blog post (http://gregnz.wordpress.com) of my 2011 'battle of the startups', a comparison between Xero and Ecoya. Would love to know what you think, since I've only just started looking at Ecoya.

Quick excerpt:
"So how much is Xero’s cash and celebrity valued at? In a startup, cash is worth much more than the face value. Cash in startup land = ability to survive another few months = not having to go back to market or raise debt = much less risk. If we do a quick market cap comparison, Xeros cash and celebrity are valued at approximately… $235 million! (thats the difference in market caps between Xero (270million) and Ecoya (33million).

Which… is quite a lot. Justified? Hmm. Ecoya will have to raise debt or go back to the market for more cash (unless Trilogy is an undisclosed cash machine)."

Will also post this on the Xero board...

cheers
Greg

[darksentinel]

Annual report came out recently (viewable at http://file.nzx.com/000/096/5215096.pdf).
The numbers look reasonable to my uneducated, ignorant eyes. Not sure what all the pictures of underdressed models are for, especially as not all of them are holding candles.
Importantly, they are looking at turning a profit next year, which is ahead of schedule.
Share price is almost back at IPO levels, although the warrants will put a soft cap on the price in the intermediate term.

I would think it's not the best market condition to sell $50 candles, most of which I personally find a bit eccentric (odour-wise) and intense for enjoyment, but I don't think I'm the target audience anyway (possibly the target market, though).

[Anonymous]

Not sure what all the pictures of underdressed models are for, especially as not all of them are holding candles.

I must say the naked lady on the horse after the Director profiles is a bit random... I assume its not Collette or Deeta ;)

[gregrday]

Damn, lost my post. Trying again in a summarised form...

my take aways were... nice increase in revenue. cogs increasing linearly. 1.8 million in cash which should last about 3 months. 5.5 million in bank debt coming due in <3months. So in less than 3 months, they will go back to the banks or (less likely imho) to the market. They seem to be living paycheck to paycheck. Interesting the banks don't go for longer term funding, but perhaps they're a little risk adverse.

Anyone have any idea why the admin expense is the same size as the sales expense?

cheers
Greg

[Lizard]

Not sure what all the pictures of underdressed models are for, especially as not all of them are holding candles.


Geoff Ross must have such a ball with this spoofy stuff. When it comes to Ecoya, I often figure it must have been some drunken bet over a late-night restaurant meal...


Geoff: "Yeah, the Forty-Two Below win was a real gag, but I'm getting bored... have to think of something new... hard to choose really... it's all about the marketing, you know... I reckon I could sell anything..."

Other Guy (staring glazedly into the flame of the candle centrepiece): "Candles... what about candles... bet you couldn't make a business out of those!" (giggles tipsily)

Geoff: "Yeah, of course I could. It's all about the marketing. With a bit of managing shareholder expectations. Bit like walking a tightrope... hard to do, but once you've mastered it, it doesn't matter whether you're strung up between the washing line poles or the twin towers... well, sort of"

Other Guy: "Nah. Candles? Really? I mean, who buys candles?"

Geoff (mind begins working): "No it's dead easy... really......."

Other Guy (slapping a $50 bill on the table): "Okay, $50 says you can't get a business up and running selling candles"

Geoff: "How long have I got?"

Well, at least that's the only rationale I can come up with - and I reckon the underdressed models are all just a marketer's private joke... though someone should ask at the agm whether Geoff had to attend the photo shoot. :p

[darksentinel]

Someone must be buying them though, right? Someone with lots of money and a diminished sense of smell...

[Lizard]

Hey, I never said they weren't a good bet... bit of a challenge but nothing to someone who probably developed a sense of humour from being called GRoss on a daily basis. NZ could do with him building and selling off listed businesses on a 3-5 year cycle, no matter how naff the original concepts he chooses to ride on.

[mr.needs]

Damn, lost my post. Trying again in a summarised form...

my take aways were... nice increase in revenue. cogs increasing linearly. 1.8 million in cash which should last about 3 months. 5.5 million in bank debt coming due in <3months. So in less than 3 months, they will go back to the banks or (less likely imho) to the market. They seem to be living paycheck to paycheck. Interesting the banks don't go for longer term funding, but perhaps they're a little risk adverse.

Anyone have any idea why the admin expense is the same size as the sales expense?

cheers
Greg

No need to go back to the bank - they've already been !

from note 18 (p71)

"The combined multi-option facility [with the BNZ] is $9,500,000 and the facility expires on 17 September 2013. At 31 March 2011 $3,500,000 was drawn against this facility under a rolling multi option facility for 30 days at an interest rate of 6.74% and $1,947,000 was drawn under the overdraft facility at an interest rate of 7.62%."

So just under $5.5 mil drawn down, meaning another $4 mil still left to go.

The provocative photos are taken from their billboards promoting the new body products line. I've seen a few of these up around Auckland/Wellington. Very effective at grabbing your attention.

Like most I was skeptical with ECOs IPs offering - scented candles. However I think Ecoya 1 year on is a completely different beast, with the Trilogy acquisition and the launch of the body care range. Trilogy was a steal at $18.5 mil (give or take) in my opinion. Fast growing revenues AND profitable ! Net profit from Trilogy's last 12 months trading was approx $3.7 mill (p80), which equates to a PE of 5 !! And this is before any of the synergies with Ecoya have been exploited.

[mr.needs]

Someone must be buying them though, right? Someone with lots of money and a diminished sense of smell...

Haha actually I bought a couple of items from their 'body care' range last week for girlfriends birthday. Ecoya products had a prominent center display near the front of the shop. Sales assistant was very enthusiastic/knowledgeable about their products. She said the ecoya products had been very popular and were selling well. Surprised me how much she knew about the company/products/brand story etc...

This reminds me of FTB, where they pushed the vodka to bartenders, as these where the ones who recommend the drinks to the punters, not the bar owners/managers

[waikare]

I must say the naked lady on the horse after the Director profiles is a bit random... I assume its not Collette or Deeta ;)

It’s worth just receiving the annual report to look at the pictures, never mind the numbers, it beats the hell out of looking at ageing directors and CEO’s

[CJ]

It’s worth just receiving the annual report to look at the pictures, never mind the numbers, it beats the hell out of looking at ageing directors and CEO’sSo has it replaced the compnay that use to own Bendon as your favourite annual report?

[Joshuatree]

I think its a subtle hint to do a bit of S&M, dripping wax onto skin ,hurts for an instant and doesnt burn and uses up the candle fast.Drip "OWw" Drip Drip "Ow OW" Drip Drip Drip "Ow Ow Ow" Quick go out and buy another $50 candle , get some Vodka too".. :)

[gregrday]

Thanks for the reference to the bank facilities, I missed that in the notes. I'm still curious to know what the admin expense is and why it is equal to the sales and marketing expense. Might be a question to ask at the AGM, anyone seen anything about that?


cheers
Greg

[robinnz]

Share dilution bugs me off.
Yesterday's announcement of a $1.15m share issue to "key investors" is an insult to small investors.
Last month we were told ECOYA was now at break-even point, so having carried them since float we should have been offered a rights issue.

This privileged "key" group, including "independent" director Rob Fyfe, were given a 10 % discount on the current share price plus Warrants (last traded at 10.5c).

[brucey09]

And the warrants due to exercise shortly - no chance

[waikare]

Share dilution bugs me off.
Yesterday's announcement of a $1.15m share issue to "key investors" is an insult to small investors.
Last month we were told ECOYA was now at break-even point, so having carried them since float we should have been offered a rights issue.

This privileged "key" group, including "independent" director Rob Fyfe, were given a 10 % discount on the current share price plus Warrants (last traded at 10.5c).

Totally agree with you Robinnz, I wasn’t exactly elated to read that, we all should have been offered a piece of the pie, suggest its all about us, bugger the rest of the punters.

The first lot of warrants are due by 15 Dec 2011.

[kizame]

Totally agree with you Robinnz, I wasn’t exactly elated to read that, we all should have been offered a piece of the pie, suggest its all about us, bugger the rest of the punters.

The first lot of warrants are due by 15 Dec 2011.

So why don't you go to their website and complain,it really angers me when companies do this,maybe it was cheaper for them to do it this way,but ,nevertheless the option should have been there inall fairness.

If enough of you were disgruntled and complained,I think they would have to take note,especially if at some time in the future they had to come back to you for funds.

[ratkin]

To be fair it wasnt really at a discount. There are very few shares on offer over 90c just a few thousand dollars worth.
Very few sellers about , which is a good siign. Was far too small a number for a rights issue , given the costs.

The company appears to be going places , there some smart cookies involved in this one , should be some profit left for the ordinary shareholders

[Heke]

Wakey wakey! It's what is known as "Corporate Greed".

[robinnz]

They've been trading above the 90c for the last month - so it was a discount.

Yes it was a relatively small amount and hardly worth their effort given their announcement in October that they had reached break-even. It's difficult to believe that "debt reduction" required this issue.

Those Warrants would be the ECOWB dated 15/6/13 currently trading at 10.5c - so that was a pure gift.

I agreed the company seems to be moving in the right direction - I just don't want this dilution reducing my share.


To be fair it wasnt really at a discount. There are very few shares on offer over 90c just a few thousand dollars worth.
Very few sellers about , which is a good siign. Was far too small a number for a rights issue , given the costs.

The company appears to be going places , there some smart cookies involved in this one , should be some profit left for the ordinary shareholders

[ratkin]

After seeing the massive discount on their candles at living and giving, and the merchandise not moving at all , decided to sell my small holding

Just a warning to holders , it has taken me seven days just to sell 5000 shares at .96c , they are so illiquid that they almost impossible to sell. You better hope there some good news down the track or your going to be stuck with them.

[GTM 3442]

After seeing the massive discount on their candles at living and giving, and the merchandise not moving at all , decided to sell my small holding

Just a warning to holders , it has taken me seven days just to sell 5000 shares at .96c , they are so illiquid that they almost impossible to sell. You better hope there some good news down the track or your going to be stuck with them.

Maybe a lot of holders are simply planning to leave them in the bottom drawer until the takeover bid turns up ? Wasn't that the original plan ?

[Felix]

Lack of liquidity can also play to your advantage if the company is doing the right things. It just comes down to the results the company produces and how long you are prepared to hold on to the shares.

For somebody who wants to hold to shares long term, taking 7 days to eventually sell the shares isn't really an issue. No doubt it is a big issue for a share trader.

Thanks for the comments on the discounted candles Ratkin. It's probably not such a bad thing they are trying to move their stock at a discount after the Christmas season. I'd be far more concerned if they had adopted that practice during the silly season itself.

[Everwood]

After seeing the massive discount on their candles at living and giving, and the merchandise not moving at all , decided to sell my small holding

Just a warning to holders , it has taken me seven days just to sell 5000 shares at .96c , they are so illiquid that they almost impossible to sell. You better hope there some good news down the track or your going to be stuck with them.

If it has taken you seven days to sell 5000 shares at 0.96c, why haven’t any shares sold at 0.96 cents since 2 February? The last sale price was at 0.95 cents.

[ratkin]

Exactly and they were mine , i can easily prove it if you like . Had an order in for 5000 last sold on feb 2nd , had 200 left over that sat at the front of the queue for the next week without sellling. Yesterday somneone jumped in front , wanting to sell at .95 . So i sold the remaining 200 on market yesterday at .93 cents , that sale is the reason the price dopped yesterday fromn .95 to .93

Dont appreciate my honesty being bought into question

[Everwood]

Exactly and they were mine , i can easily prove it if you like . Had an order in for 5000 last sold on feb 2nd , had 200 left over that sat at the front of the queue for the next week without sellling. Yesterday somneone jumped in front , wanting to sell at .95 . So i sold the remaining 200 on market yesterday at .93 cents , that sale is the reason the price dopped yesterday fromn .95 to .93

Dont appreciate my honesty being bought into question

The way you wrote your previous message, implied you sold your 5000 shares yesterday at 0.96. Also never mention yesterday you sold 200 shares at 0.93 at Market price.

[ratkin]

The way you wrote your previous message, implied you sold your 5000 shares yesterday at 0.96. Also never mention yesterday you sold 200 shares at 0.93 at Market price.


All i said was it took seven days to sell 5000 shares



ASB Securities 1,000 Z.ECO @ 0.9600 trade notification (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/mc/showMessage?sMid=16&fid=%2540S%2540Search&filterBy=&squery=ASB%20SECURITIES&vp=1&ymv=0&.rand=1444651914&midIndex=16&mid=1_15940_1_389904_0_AGtgbHwAAKuhTyXbPANgFhxQy44&fromId=Internet.Broking@asb.co.nz)

Mon, 30/1/





ASB Securities 2,200 Z.ECO @ 0.9600 trade notification (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/mc/showMessage?sMid=13&fid=%2540S%2540Search&filterBy=&squery=ASB%20SECURITIES&vp=1&ymv=0&.rand=1444651914&midIndex=13&mid=1_13008_1_336044_0_AG5gbHwAAXJETydamQKbZkDVg4s&fromId=Internet.Broking@asb.co.nz)

Tue, 31/1/12






ASB Securities 1,600 Z.ECO @ 0.9600 trade notification (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/mc/showMessage?sMid=9&fid=%2540S%2540Search&filterBy=&squery=ASB%20SECURITIES&vp=1&ymv=0&.rand=1444651914&midIndex=9&mid=1_9115_1_215487_0_AG1gbHwAAM4PTyoEYQJ5X0QWgQk&fromId=Internet.Broking@asb.co.nz)

Thu, 2/2/12




ASB Securities 200 Z.ECO @ 0.9300 trade notification (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/mc/showMessage?sMid=2&fid=%2540S%2540Search&filterBy=&squery=ASB%20SECURITIES&vp=1&ymv=0&.rand=1444651914&midIndex=2&mid=1_2051_1_14238481_0_AG1gbHwAAQ1aTzHpEA2moiAf48 4&fromId=Internet.Broking@asb.co.nz)

Wed, 8/2/12




Happy now?

[Everwood]

All i said was it took seven days to sell 5000 shares


Happy now?



You said "it has taken me seven days just to sell 5000 shares at .96c" Which didn't sound right, this is the reason why I asked.

[ob1kinobi]

A quiet thread, even after yesterdays anns

Mike Taylor is a sharp operator so he must have seen value somewhere. The SP has pipped up today too.

I haven't been following ECO, but Geoff Ross? (Level 42 guy) is a great marketer.

I'll be paying more attention now though ;) perhaps I'll start by reading this thread

[ob1kinobi]

Oh well the thread was a short read, not much going on.

Yes, the liquidity is almost non-existant. I do hope MT knows what he's doing.

[darksentinel]

Oh well the thread was a short read, not much going on.

Yes, the liquidity is almost non-existant. I do hope MT knows what he's doing.

His track record suggests he does.
I'm guessing he's looking for something that is less dependent on Chinese growth, since my understanding is that he has recently exited some positions and is expecting a significant slowdown of China's economy to occur soon.

[Felix]

Have been a shareholder for about six months and it's fair to say I wouldn't be invested with them if they didn't have quality directors and professional investors involved in the company. When you look at what the company sells you can't get too excited about their prospects but having great directors and smart professional investors on board suggests that it's not a bad company to invest in. Time will tell.

[Everwood]

I'm disappointed they did not offer existing shareholders the right to purchase more shares at 90c. It means dilution for existing shareholders.

[CJ]

I am not a shareholder but I think they way Xero did the recent capital raising was the fairest for small investors.

[Major von Tempsky]

I'm not a shareholder - but has Ecoya considered the potential dildo market?

[waikare]

I'm disappointed they did not offer existing shareholders the right to purchase more shares at 90c. It means dilution for existing shareholders.

This is not the first time thay have did this:

"Robinnz wrote this on the 12/11/11: Share dilution bugs me off.
Yesterday's announcement of a $1.15m share issue to "key investors" is an insult to small investors.
Last month we were told ECOYA was now at break-even point, so having carried them since float we should have been offered a rights issue.

This privileged "key" group, including "independent" director Rob Fyfe, were given a 10 % discount on the current share price plus Warrants (last traded at 10.5c).

The directors may have been a success in the past but it does not give them the right to do as they please with our company, like myself I may only hold a few thousand shares (6k), regardless the number of share I hold, I am a share holder and should have been give the same options to purchase shares at discount or at least have a say in the matter.
I intend to express my disapproval via their website.

[gregrday]

Just a quick blog post on ECO at http://gregnz.wordpress.com/2012/10/16/why-i-sold-ecoya/

following AGM.

[Everwood]

Just a quick blog post on ECO at http://gregnz.wordpress.com/2012/10/16/why-i-sold-ecoya/

following AGM.

I agree with your blog post when you said "acquisitions which is something that makes me nervous." I'm expecting them to purchase cosmetic manufacture. Phoenix Cosmetics (http://www.phoenixcosmetics.com) would be a good fit, but it might be quite costly to purchase it, if Phoenix Renata decides to sell. It will also give Ecoya another outlet to sell their products and it would be perfect place to sell Trilogy skincare range. They already have 9 stores in NZ and another store in Australia.

[gregrday]

Yeah, acquisitions to me indicate theres not enough growth in the core brands. Theres always confusing accounting and things associated with them as well, which just gives me shivers. Talking with Sarah from Trilogy just illustrated how competitive that market is (500 brands of skincare for NZ alone), and the fact that the chief instigators were not in there boots and all was enough to call quits.

Now I just need to look at Xero again!

[Fred114]

Taylor reports that ECO is overlooked for MOA initial public offering. Fundementals remain strong for this, despite SP reducing...

[CJ]

Taylor reports that ECO is overlooked for MOA initial public offering. Fundementals remain strong for this, despite SP reducing...Both Taylor and Brian Gaynor bought in at about the $1mark I seem to remember and it then shot up to $1.40 for no particular reason. It is now down to around $1 for no particular reason. From that I take it that it is at around the right price until the next update or news comes out.

I think Ross resigned as CEO during that period but it is still run at the top by the Business Bakery boys. He said he had to resign as perception was you cant be CEO of both. My guess is the BBb all have their particular skills and will utilise them as needed regardless of title.

So who is buy a candle for a christmas present?

[Everwood]

FORECAST: ECO: Ecoya - Earnings Update

Ecoya provides earnings upgrade and continues growth trajectory

Ecoya Limited (NZX:ECO) has today outlined its guidance for the year ended 31
March 2014 and confirmed it expects to exceed previous market guidance for
the 31 March 2013 year.

Revenue is expected to be $26.6M for the year ended 31 March 2013
representing an 18% year-on-year increase. At EBITDA for the full year, Ecoya
expects a profit of greater than $1.1M which is up on the breakeven
prediction made in November last year. This update is based on unaudited
financial statements and the company will announce its final audited result
for the year prior to 31 May 2013.

The company outlined its growth initiatives at its AGM in September 2012
including significant investments in product, packaging and brand. The
forecast profit result at EBITDA has been achieved on the back of the
platform built in the first half of the year.

The Ecoya group expects this growth to continue and is forecasting revenue in
excess of $30M for the year ended 31 March 2014, with a forecast EBITDA
profit in excess of $2M for the full year.

The Ecoya business is seasonal with the Christmas gifting period falling
within the second half of the financial year. The group expects a similar
seasonal profit in the coming financial year, as was experienced in the year
ending 31 March 2013.

The business continues to grow with opportunities both locally and within the
international markets.

Key recent wins include the expansion of Trilogy's distribution and reach in
the UK market via all 27 John Lewis stores throughout Great Britain, and a
distribution deal with Sigma, a leading wholesale and distribution business
to pharmacy and owner of three of Australia's best known pharmacy retail
brands - Amcal Max, Amcal and Guardian. The group has over 450 stores
nationwide and the new retail partnership gives Trilogy core product ranging
in all stores.

Revenue for Trilogy in Australia is up 30% on last year making Australia the
biggest market for the Trilogy brand. Trilogy now represents 60% of total
group revenue.

At 31 March 2013 net debt was $6.6M down from $8.4M at 30 September 2012,
resulting in headroom of $2.9M on a total facility of $9.5M. The company
plans to further reduce net debt through continued positive trading.

[percy]

I beleive Trilogy's products are very good,and the future for them is good.
But the company or share price appears to have built in 5 or 10 years future profit already.
With 61.2 mil shares at today's 95cents the market cap is $58.179 mil,yet revenue is expected to grow to only $30mil for the year end 31.3.2014 and ebitda of over $2mil.So instead of spending my $58.179mil on buying ECO I would earn more leaving it in my savings account at my bank.!! Why bother?

[waikare]

If the share price remains around Friday’s close of $0.86, there is no advantage in exercising the warrants. Will be waiting to see their results due out at the end of May before considering my options.




A pretty nice call of enthusiasm for Ecoya when the SP is 12% under the warrant price!

ECO
03/05/2013 13:06
EXERCISE

REL: 1306 HRS Ecoya Limited

EXERCISE: ECO: Business Bakery to exercise ECOYA Warrants

ECOYA Limited (NZX:ECO) advised today that it has written to warrant holders
regarding the exercise of ECOYA Series 2 warrants (NZX:ECOWB). The final
exercise date for the 2,581,893 warrants on issue is 15 June 2013.

The company recently advised the market of an earnings upgrade in respect to
the result for the year ended 31 March 2013. Earnings before interest tax and
depreciation for the year ended 31 March 2013 is expected to be in excess of
$1.1m which is much higher than the breakeven prediction made in November
last year.

Major shareholder the Business Bakery has advised that it will exercise the
720,653 Series 2 warrants that it holds.
ECOYA will announce the full audited result for the year prior to 31 May
2013.

For further information contact;
CEO - Stephen Sinclair
Mobile: 021 33 00 53
End CA:00235857 For:ECO Type:EXERCISE Time:2013-05-03 13:06:34

[boofters]

If the share price remains around Friday’s close of $0.86, there is no advantage in exercising the warrants. Will be waiting to see their results due out at the end of May before considering my options.

Except importantly that the proceeds go to Ecoya! Pretty worthy approach from the main shareholders and certainly a sign of confidence or pessimisitically a sign that they're running out of cash?

But for me this looks like a good bet, in November the forecast for Year End was breakeven, now 4 months later its for 1mil+, if we look now to forecast to 2014 we could be seeing 4mil+ profit, which would certainly see this SP move in a northerly direction.


p.s Yes I do hold a small parcel of ECO so bias is at play;)

[CJ]

Pretty worthy approach from the main shareholders and certainly a sign of confidence or but for anyone who can buy on market, no reason to exercise.

Disc: I took a punt and lost big time. I wont be exercising my warrents.

[CJ]

Who knows how to rename a thread ;)

[Balance]

Trading on a EBITDA multiple of over 20 times for FYE March 2014.

Only one way for this stock to go.

[Under Surveillance]

Trading on a EBITDA multiple of over 20 times for FYE March 2014.

Only one way for this stock to go.
Give us a clue.

[CJ]

Give us a clue.This happens when when you light a candle.

[brucey09]

This happens when when you light a candle.

Snr. Cj
Your finger burns - yes?

[CJ]

Your finger burns - yes?
I was think "it melts away to nothing" but that also works.

[Balance]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10837220

The Ecoya meeting this week was a complete contrast to Sealegs. The conservative Northern Club was positively hip as the scent of candles floated through the air, young girls helped shareholders to their elegant linen-covered tables and directors Rob Fyfe and Grant Baker wore smart suits and ties.

Director Rich Frank had just flown in from his home in Beverly Hills and commented that he had to miss the Emmy Awards to attend the Ecoya meeting.

Chairman Geoff Ross gave his usual polished performance. He said the company had excellent prospects and the Trilogy skin care products now generated more sales than the traditional Ecoya candles.

He told shareholders that revenue for the six months to September was expected to be up 16 per cent from the same period in the previous year.

Full year sales were expected to be $26.6 million, an increase of 18 per cent over the previous year, and operating earnings would be above breakeven for the full year.

Ross also said the company would be looking to acquire an additional business in the next 12 months and this would be partly funded by raising new equity.

[CJ]

Why is Fyfe leaving? His reason seemed a bit light to me - its not as if he will be wastin his day in the dole que waiting for a new job.

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/185949.pdf

Running way behind forecasts now but wait for this ..

Promotors and directors provided consultancy and management services to the company and paid themselves $1.349m in fees in the last 18 months.

They must have been crying into the Moa beers as they reflect on how they let shareholders down?

[waikare]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/185949.pdf

Running way behind forecasts now but wait for this ..

Promotors and directors provided consultancy and management services to the company and paid themselves $1.349m in fees in the last 18 months.

They must have been crying into the Moa beers as they reflect on how they let shareholders down?

This time last year, trading at $0.95 closed yesterday at $0.61, just how far south will it go……………

[golden city]

the product looks have a future.., just not sure the people can execute or now

[Balance]

the product looks have a future.., just not sure the people can execute or now

$60 to $125 scented candles?

They would be better off selling hallucinogenic inducing (legal high) candles at $600 to $1250 a pop.

[peat]

Yeh Balance, they really need to trim those sales and marketing expenses. At 5.3m for 6 months to achieve sales of 13.5m it's just too costly - as much as the Cost of Goods

[warthog]

Franceska Banga of the Government Venture Investment Fund recently said in a RadioNZ interview that they "got comfort" in Moa because the main person involved in that venture, one Geoff Scott, has brand-building experience.

The hog has to say, if Banga and others can't get a name right, what sort of chance do they have in looking after taxpayer capital in developing venture markets, getting more "banga" for their buck, as it were?

Ha. Banga is looking a bit different in these two photos:
http://www.nzvif.co.nz/nzvif-management-team.html
http://www.nzvif.co.nz/franceska-banga.html

[golden city]

marketing expense is alright ..if they can build up to a sustainable volume.

[Harvey Specter]

Franceska Banga of the Government Venture Investment Fund recently said in a RadioNZ interview that they "got comfort" in Moa because the main person involved in that venture, one Geoff Scott, has brand-building experience.

The hog has to say, if Banga and others can't get a name right, what sort of chance do they have in looking after taxpayer capital in developing venture markets, getting more "banga" for their buck, as it were?

Ha. Banga is looking a bit different in these two photos:
http://www.nzvif.co.nz/nzvif-management-team.html
http://www.nzvif.co.nz/franceska-banga.htmlwith a surname like this, she would have been hassled on her teens.

[winner69]

Ha. Banga is looking a bit different in these two photos:
http://www.nzvif.co.nz/nzvif-management-team.html
http://www.nzvif.co.nz/franceska-banga.html

Spose one is Franceska at work and the other when Franceska is well ..... not at work

I think it is the same Franceska

[warthog]

Spose one is Franceska at work and the other when Franceska is well ..... not at work

I think it is the same Franceska

Yes, but there is a chronological shift between the two photos.

Which is interesting, that one would want an out-of-date photo up on the website.

[Bobcat.]

TIL - Trilogy.

I got interested in this company about a month ago after reading it was making inroads to Asia (placed in over 200 Mannings pharmacy stores in Hong Kong, and with products very popular in Japan and Singapore).

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU140...ernational.htm

Last month, I bought a parcel, anticipating an announcement that would turn around its stock price slide of the past 12 months. And it's good to see that they have this afternoon announced a $2.1m EBIT (up 56%) off $30m revenues (up 12%). Debt has been reduced by 35%.

They are selling Ecoya and Trilogy products one every 17 secs. Moving into the UK and US mid west (via 41 Whole Foods Market stores). Looking good.

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=3590432

[golden city]

looking good., at the moment.., trend is up up up

[golden city]

enjoy..nice little up trend.., will up to 99c...soon

[Bobcat.]

Me thinks to sell now around 80c and buy back in on a dip.

[golden city]

it is on target to 99.soon

[SirPrize]

Dropped off quite a bit. Where to from here?

[Bobcat.]

I'm anticipating a bear market in Equities over the rest of this month, and so am holding off buying back into TIL for now...but at 65c it sure is tempting. I'm picking a dip to 61/62c before climbing again. This company is now profitable.

[SirPrize]

Their latest announcement was very positive imo. Hopefully it'll increase the numbers.

[benjitara]

After doing some fundamentals I felt fundamentally underwhelmed with this stock. Obviously this is seen as a potential high growth stock but surely if this is the case then revenues should be gaining greater leverage to support expansion? Nice to finally see a profit looks ensured for the financial year but they've slightly missed their intended targets for the year. I also don't like the "goodwill" figures considering the highly competitive market they are situated in. One ot keep a eye on as market scale could see a vast improvement in times to come but not for me just yet.

[ratkin]

Surely there are better places to put your money

[Bobcat.]

BC, you've been expecting a bear market since February's head and shoulders (failed) move on the DJI. When are you going to commit to anything long term stock wise, other than goldies?

Yes that's right Moose - I did see a head and shoulder pattern late Feb / early March and expected that to bring a correction, and sold down to hold 40% cash accordingly ...but that turned out to be a false flag, and so I bought into the market again. However, "Sell in May and go away (Nthrn Hemisphere Summer holidays)" is a dictum that's proven prudent many times before, and we'd be foolish to ignore it.

Apart from precious metals and a few defensive stocks, I'd rather hold cash than invest long in much at the moment. Even my PM stocks I'm looking to sell in the first week of June, because of seasonal patterns (end of US tax year sell off, etc) to buy in again at the end of June. Check the charts for relevant historical patterns and you'll see what I mean.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html

As for Ecoya, I like their products, their Asian growth (particularly in Japan) and fact that they have now turned in a profit. Their sp rose quickly from 46c to 80c before falling back to where it is now (65c), and IMO we can expect buying interest again soon.

BC

Discl: no longer holding but I do plan to pick some up again before long, especially if the sp drops closer to 60c.

[waikare]

it is on target to 99.soon

Golden city would you care to expand on “soon”

[golden city]

i take my time..no worries for me.., after profit announcement will see...,stick with my views..

[golden city]

it is a great time for me to top it up

[SirPrize]

any ideas what's driving it down?

[Bobcat.]

I don't mind at all, having just topped up at a good price, and with an even cheekier bid not far off market.

This is now a profitable company with clearly better value than prior to their last financial report when earlier this year it was trading around 50c.

[golden city]

love it ... good way to topping up

[SirPrize]

Latest article on them on nzherald 14/06/14

A girl-power team with global domination in mind.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/viva-magazine/news/article.cfm?c_id=533&objectid=11275678

The girls seem like they have some tricks up their sleeve? :)

[SirPrize]

No negative announcements yet -40% in 1 month.

[Bobcat.]

Yes, I still do like this company..but have purchased enough now, with my latest top-up made last Friday. I'll sit on what I have, anticipating the promised improvement to its Australian operation, and continuation of its now profitable business elsewhere.

P/E ratio and NTA are not wonderful, and so perhaps this stock has yet someway to drop (before bouncing off a double bottom in the mid 40's?).

BC

[golden city]

the high new zealand dollar is the reason behind the drop i guess

[golden city]

forecast for half years sounds good.., on track for a good full year

[BFG]

While everyone is busy arguing over PEB and morbidly watching the falls of CAV, MAD and PPL, TIL beats its own upgraded forecasts and is still growing. Looking like a great turnaround story.

[golden city]

i like the product and the margin of the product...making money on girls..is more flexible

[dodgy]

i like the product and the margin of the product...making money on girls..is more flexible


Hi GC
After watching Trilogy very carefully I think its time serious thought should be given to this stock. Don't be distracted by the Moa's of this world. Here we have a well funded company, with established markets and product demand, driven by success focused management. As pointed out further up the thread, result improvement has been signaled and they are running through their traditional best 6 months , with general retail sales on the up, market wide - lower gas = more discretionary spend. What do you think before the May result release? 90c plus later in the year ?

[BFG]

Hi GC
After watching Trilogy very carefully I think its time serious thought should be given to this stock. Don't be distracted by the Moa's of this world. Here we have a well funded company, with established markets and product demand, driven by success focused management. As pointed out further up the thread, result improvement has been signaled and they are running through their traditional best 6 months , with general retail sales on the up, market wide - lower gas = more discretionary spend. What do you think before the May result release? 90c plus later in the year ?

My views on this stock have been voiced, as well as being nearly my top pick in the ST '15 contest :)

[dodgy]

My views on this stock have been voiced, as well as being nearly my top pick in the ST '15 contest :)

Hi BFG
Was refering to your post as well but would love your guestimate.

[BFG]

Hi BFG
Was refering to your post as well but would love your guestimate.

I wouldn't be surprised to see $1.00 being targetted (IPO price) upon another great HY :)

[golden city]

the problem is the liquildity

[BFG]

the problem is the liquildity

As with most stocks on the NZX. It does usually trade every day, but I guess if you want to buy/sell a position you need to exercise just a little patience... ;)

[dodgy]

As with most stocks on the NZX. It does usually trade every day, but I guess if you want to buy/sell a position you need to exercise just a little patience... ;)


Its a fair way away from a market update but a few tucked away may be a sound exercise.

[dodgy]

Based only on a recent steady improvement in this stocks price , and in view of the growth strategies employed by the only real thoroughbred in the bakeries stable, I would be expecting this undervalued situation to improve steadily too at least the most recent issue price of $1. If they actually declare a dividend?
-d

[blobbles]

Looks like they have about the best advocate you could ask for in the world...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/67166603/kate-middleton-a-fan-of-nzs-trilogy-rosehip-oil

This likely explains todays rather large rise.

[dodgy]

Looks like they have about the best advocate you could ask for in the world...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/67166603/kate-middleton-a-fan-of-nzs-trilogy-rosehip-oil

This likely explains todays rather large rise.

Hi Blobbles
Again I must repeat that this stock in my opinion is still well undervalued and deserves an upgrade - good products, good marketers. Hang on for the ride late this month.
Discl: hold 50k

[Everwood]

Nice positive forecast for Trilogy with net profit growth of more than 300%
http://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/direc...spx?id=3827582 (http://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3827582)

Someone knew something in advance with the jump in stock price yesterday, but that article in stuff would have also helped.

[blobbles]

Nice positive forecast for Trilogy with net profit growth of more than 300%
http://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/direc...spx?id=3827582 (http://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3827582)

Someone knew something in advance with the jump in stock price yesterday, but that article in stuff would have also helped.

Exactly, another case of dodgy dealings going on that likely won't be investigated... though it could be linked to the Princess advocating...

[Lizard]

Nice one. I bought a holding in TIL last week at 75cps, so nice to get off to a good start! Forecast is higher than I'd expected. My valuation currently 97cps - $1.10, but early days and somewhat dependent on whether they look to further kick start growth with new working capital via equity. Also, may be a bit of pipeline fill in Australian sales which could back-off in next half-year?

[Well Endowed]

I bought in today on open, nice trend developing.

Huge press in the uk online regarding royals using the stuff, it's sold out at Boots (largest uk pharmacy) so has to be good for sales.

http://www.boots.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/SolrSearchLister?storeId=10052&langId=-1&catalogId=11051&stReq=1&searchTerm=trilogy+rosehip#container

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2986045/Is-rosehip-oil-secret-Duchess-Cambridge-s-pregnancy-glow-Royal-said-fan-natural-oil-keeps-wrinkles-bay-s-sold-out.html

[Everwood]

Nice one. I bought a holding in TIL last week at 75cps, so nice to get off to a good start! Forecast is higher than I'd expected. My valuation currently 97cps - $1.10, but early days and somewhat dependent on whether they look to further kick start growth with new working capital via equity. Also, may be a bit of pipeline fill in Australian sales which could back-off in next half-year?

I will be in the black when it goes up 1 more cent or 83 cents. I got positive feeling about Trilogy future.

[noodles]

What the heck is going on? Up 21% on no news.

Are there some rumors in the market?

[golden city]

is there any takeover talks inside

[Everwood]

What the heck is going on? Up 21% on no news.

Are there some rumors in the market?

I wondering exactly the same thing. I came to the forum to see if anyone knew anything.

[golden city]

it is unbeliverable..

[dodgy]

it is unbeliverable..

Good morning golden city and all
Over exuberant few in my mind. The only current downside to this stock is current $A/$K.
Regards
-dodgy (owner shareholder - part seller today @ these prices.)

[noodles]

Good morning golden city and all
Over exuberant few in my mind. The only current downside to this stock is current $A/$K.
Regards
-dodgy (owner shareholder - part seller today @ these prices.)
Yes, looks like it was FOMO. Back down to 1.03 now.

Well traded dodgy!

[dingoNZ]

Now you buy your stock back for a cool wee profit in day trading ;D

[golden city]

it is too risky

[golden city]

sold out for me..too low volume to be trade

[Everwood]

NZX has done Price Enquiry into Trilogy. Trilogy has responded with “We confirm that TIL continues to comply with its continuous disclosure obligations.”

[golden city]

xero said the same

[noodles]

NZX has done Price Enquiry into Trilogy. Trilogy has responded with “We confirm that TIL continues to comply with its continuous disclosure obligations.”
When the March forecast was announced, the full impact of the Kate Middleton outing would not have been known. Since then, we know some distribution points ran out of stock and their was a bit of a social media frenzy. What we don't know is what impact this had on the bottom line. At the piefunds conference, Geoff Ross indicated that running out of stock can be a good thing as it generates some excitement. He heard stories of people privately sending stock from Australia to UK to meet demand.

As a holder, I'm hoping that the full year profit will be materially ahead of the $4mill forecast in March.

[Southern_Belle]

UK a fickle market.....surge in the Waitrose baby butter which women using for their faces. Allegedly out of stock in UK.....now selling / dumping at knock down price at NOSH stores in NZ.

Too risky for me and still weary of people like Geoff Ross in the mix.

Good luck for those of you who are in.

[silverblizzard888]

Nice 4.5 million profit and announcement of first dividend

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/264766

[Everwood]

I'm really pleased with the result and they are now paying a dividend.

[silverblizzard888]

I'm really pleased with the result and they are now paying a dividend.

Company is really building along, I think shareholders will have smiles on their faces today

[dodgy]

Company is really building along, I think shareholders will have smiles on their faces today

Hi all
Nice well signaled result with a bonus of a divi as well. $A/$K cross may help offset the reported tax advantage in Aus next 6 months. This stock should reach last share issue price again and it's blue sky as Asia and the USA ramp up.
Have a great day.
Regards
-dodgy (owner/shareholder - buying today on the divi strength).

[Lizard]

Yes, I am happy with that result and pleased to see the dividend. :)

Revenue growth seemed well spread between brands/countries, and seems there could be plenty of room to expand in UK and US markets off the current base. And agree that exchange rate may help make up for low tax payment this year. Therefore, growth in NPAT may still be possible or even probable.

[silverblizzard888]

Liked the result,strengthend balance sheet, positive outlook,and paying a divie.Brought some this morning at $1.05.

Glad to have you aboard, I like your choice in stocks Percy, so to have the "Percy seal of approve" is quite the bonus on my initial view.

[Beagle]

Glad to have you aboard, I like your choice in stocks Percy, so to have the "Percy seal of approve" is quite the bonus on my initial view.

He's just following Noodles, ssshhh, keep it quiet and don't mention I said that :D

[percy]

Glad to have you aboard, I like your choice in stocks Percy, so to have the "Percy seal of approve" is quite the bonus on my initial view.

Good to be aboard joining you,Noodles and Lizard.
I was told some time ago the Trilogy products were excellent,so have kept an eye on the company..
The "Percy seal of approval"? The one to watch out for is the "Percy smell the money". It really works.!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol.
In the meantime it is great to join a small company with a market cap of just under $78mil,finding their market,with excellent growth prospects,and having a good balance sheet,solid positive cashflow and not carrying a mountain of debt. Starting to pay a dividend is good discipline.ie they are in business for the shareholders,yet they appear to be retaining enough to fund growth.

[percy]

He's just following Noodles, ssshhh, keep it quiet and don't mention I said that :D

And Lizard.
Where are you???

[Beagle]

Home fragrance, body care and natural skin care is for pussies..OMG did I really say that out loud :D

[percy]

Home fragrance, body care and natural skin care is for pussies..OMG did I really say that out loud :D

Yes I think most of us prefer that to ..........................................your doggies.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol.

[DarkHorse]

Home fragrance, body care and natural skin care is for pussies..OMG did I really say that out loud :D
Definitely no fleas on this one - my smoothest and sweetest smelling NZ purchase this year :)

[percy]

Definitely no fleas on this one - my smoothest and sweetest smelling NZ purchase this year :)

Beautifully put.!!
You are an exceptionally intelligent DarkHorse.

[noodles]

He's just following Noodles, ssshhh, keep it quiet and don't mention I said that :D

Rubbish. More like percy is following Jim Slater.
http://www.stockopedia.com/content/jim-slaters-zulu-principle-growth-investing-mixed-with-value-57670/

And if he were following me, he would have bought at 82c

The result was fantastic. Revenue growth of 20-25% next year as well. This company has strong operating leverage, so would expect earnings growth to be much higher.

[Beagle]

Wow, if only the fishing was that good in the Hauraki gulf :lol: Just yanking ya ponytails guys...wasn't a bad result but I prefer to invest in companies that I can identify with from a users perspective :)

[stoploss]

Wow, if only the fishing was that good in the Hauraki gulf :lol: Just yanking ya ponytails guys...wasn't a bad result but I prefer to invest in companies that I can identify with from a users perspective :)

Wouldn't be surprised to find "Mrs Roger " has the odd Vanilla scented candle tucked away at the back of the cupboard for a special occasion . Or maybe one of the skincare products , just possibly some Rosehip oil favoured by the Royals .......

[winner69]

Roger probably has the original Ecoya prospectus hidden away somewhere .....just to look at the pictures

[stoploss]

Roger probably has the original Ecoya prospectus hidden away somewhere .....just to look at the pictures

Shouldn't that be ,"I only keep it to look at the financials " ........

[winner69]

Shouldn't that be ,"I only keep it to look at the financials " ........

Whatever but nice figures whatever you want to look at

[Lizard]

I have the trilogy lip balm, the trilogy hand cream, the trilogy everywhere balm, the rosehip oil and the trilogy night face cream. I have one of those huge ecoya candles and a smaller one. ALL of these except the lip balm were gifted to me by various people... but I actually love all of them and the hand cream was a repeat request.

Hence why I bought the shares and have allocated a few to my daughters. :)

[Joshuatree]

Wow!! Nice to get all those gifts!! Word getting around re the perfect quality gift.. McPhersons MCP on ASX are very happy with marketing their products too.

[percy]

Today's guidance for half year ended 30th September is fantastic.
Revenue guidance up 50% more than last year's half.
But wait.............................NPBT will be triple.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[horus1]

why didn't I buy more

[percy]

why didn't I buy more

Somehow I think the fun is only starting.!

[Te Whetu]

Today's guidance for half year ended 30th September is fantastic.
Revenue guidance up 50% more than last year's half.
But wait.............................NPBT will be triple.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The financial performance does not appear to be bad.
However, it is also not so good that it deserves 20 exclamation marks.

To put this guidance in context:
The predicted financial performance for H1 FY16 is only slightly better than what TIL achieved in H2 FY15.
This is certainly not bad (H1 has typically been a little slower than the previous H2).
Nevertheless, 20 exclamation marks is a lot.

DISC: HOLD

[percy]

The financial performance does not appear to be bad.
However, it is also not so good that it deserves 20 exclamation marks.

To put this guidance in context:
The predicted financial performance for H1 FY16 is only slightly better than what TIL achieved in H2 FY15.
This is certainly not bad (H1 has typically been a little slower than the previous H2).
Nevertheless, 20 exclamation marks is a lot.

DISC: HOLD

Do you think that Christmas and Valentine's Day coming in TIL's 2nd half, may influence the weighting to the 2nd half.?
I do.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Now sometime a lot of people do n't know.More mums have their birthday in TIL's 2nd half.....lol.

[Everwood]

I'm very happy with the guidance. I have been long term shareholder, and I recently purchase some more shares to add to my original holding.

[DarkHorse]

I'm happy too - very good growth at a very reasonable price :)
I see today NZX is up a bit, ASX down a bit - and my portfolios in both are up over 2.5% each - my lucky alpha day!

[Everwood]

The share price has been climbing very nicely recently, and they have just announced a new acquisition. CS Company is the largest independent importer and distributor of fragrances, cosmetics and toiletries. https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/268565

[muss1]

Soooo... What do we think about the acquisition? 6.4M EBITDA (purchased at 5.7x). "Highly earnings accretive". What sort of interest do we expect TIL to be paying on the debt? Assuming they haven't purchased any major depreciation and amortisation along with CS (seems fair given the business they are in), can we expect 3M additional NPBT next year? I had rose tinted glasses (pun definitely intended) looking at my estimated EPS calcs for FY16, but could this make things quite a bit better? Obviously remembering there's now a decent chunk of debt on board.

[percy]

Have not done any figures or projections,but the acquisition appears to be an absolute cracker.

[Well Endowed]

good volume through today. seems to be consolidating around this level.

[Well Endowed]

looks like it was pie funds topping up, bit of value to be had around $1.30 still me thinks...

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/270207

[percy]

looks like it was pie funds topping up, bit of value to be had around $1.30 still me thinks...

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/270207

After buying722,000 at $1.30 how can they end up with the same 3,697,343 [5.99%] as they held before .???

[muss1]

More good volume today. Large offer at 1.35 all snatched up and pushed on through to close at 1.37. Could be the start of a nice run into the meeting next week. Im quietly confident the meeting will offer some more good news/commentary around guidance. Interested in hearing more about the acquisition because I don't think the market knows enough to comfortably price that in yet. Pretty likely to and a couple of cents to EPS IMO

[Well Endowed]

agree muss. looks like some bids building nicely this morning, albeit low volume. Quite happy with further churn in the register in the 130s-140s.

I personally think Trilogy is 12mths away from being on the radar and potentially snapped up by a bigger global player.

[muss1]

Currently no broker coverage too, must not be too far away if they keep delivering. Very nice open with bidders chasing the small lots of offer

[golden city]

looking good.., firing..

[kiora]

looking good.., firing..

Well positioned ? :)

[golden city]

very good positions

[golden city]

expecting good thing happening at agm..can't wait

[Well Endowed]

Pie Funds holding in Trilogy up to 7.01% now, and responsible for last weeks spike in turnover...

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/270544
(https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/270544)
370,000 Ord Share purchase @NZD1.400
250,949 Ord Share purchase @NZD1.466
9,689 Ord Share purchase @NZD1.458

[golden city]

Looking good

[muss1]

Happy with my accidentally well timed top up early last week. Meeting tomorrow will be very interesting, wish I could attend. PIE obviously expecting big things

[golden city]

I will go have a chat with ross

[Well Endowed]

Looking good..!

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/270582

TIL 1H 2015 revenue and profit to beat August guidance 10:04am, 23 Sep 2015 | FORECAST NZX and Media release 23 September 2015
Trilogy International 1H 2015 revenue and profit to beat August guidance
CS Company acquisition to make a strong contribution to the full year result

Trilogy International Limited (NZX:TIL) today announces that revenue and earnings for the six months to 30 September 2015 will exceed guidance given in August as the group benefits from strong demand for its products in domestic and offshore markets and a weakening kiwi dollar.
Excluding the contribution from its recent acquisition of beauty and cosmetic distributor CS Company Limited, Trilogy expects revenue for the half year to rise 57% to $24 million from $15.3 million for the same period in the prior year. On the same basis, half-year net profit is expected to rise 336% to $4.8 million from $1.1 million in the prior year.
On 3 August 2015, before announcing the CS Company acquisition, Trilogy said it expected half year revenue to reach $23 million and half year net profit to reach $3.5 million.
For the year to 31 March 2016, including the impact of the CS Company acquisition, Trilogy expects revenue to rise 104% to $75 million from $36.6 million and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to range between $12 million to $14 million. The company expects net profit before tax to range between $10 million to $12 million up from $4.6 million in the prior year. Interest costs are expected to be approximately $2 million for the full year with around one quarter expensed in the first half of the year and the remainder expensed in the second half. .

CS Company, acquired on 19 August 2015, is expected to contribute an additional $5m million to group revenue for the half year to 30 September 2015 and operating profit of $800,000. After financing and acquisition costs, its contribution to half year net profit is expected not to be material.

For the second half, CS Company is expected to contribute approximately $22 million revenue to the group and $3.5 million to net profit.
Speaking ahead of the Trilogy International Annual Meeting at the Sofitel Auckland at 12.30pm today, Chairman Geoff Ross said: “The Board continues to be very pleased with the performance of Trilogy’s flagship brands. Meanwhile, our recent acquisition, CS Company, is making an important contribution to the group.”

Trilogy International Chief Executive Officer Angela Buglass said: “Trilogy’s home markets of Australia and New Zealand are performing extremely well for each of the three brands.
“The weakening New Zealand Dollar against the US and Australian currencies has had a positive impact on trading with realised and unrealised foreign exchange gains contributing around $700,000 in this half.”
Additionally, the group has benefited from a boost in sales following media reports that the Duchess of Cambridge is an avid user of Trilogy rosehip oil. The recently-launched Goodness skincare brand also made a contribution.
“Goodness, which is aimed at a younger audience, is off to a great start in New Zealand and Australia and it has opened new channel opportunities,” Ms Buglass said.
“Revenue growth will likely exceed profit growth as the company continues to invest in export markets, brands and additional staff.”
Over the last half year Trilogy has made significant strides in Asia and the US, where it recently secured distribution through the Whole Foods Market chain of specialist supermarkets. Whole Foods operates 405 stores across the US and specialises in high quality natural and organic products.
The full AGM presentation and speech notes will be posted on NZX during the AGM.

For more information contact:

Angela Buglass Geoff Ross
Chief Executive Officer Chairman
+64 21 848 293 +64 21 42 219

[percy]

Outlook looked great.Then with today's announcement it just got even better.
I think you are in for a fantastic agm,and I am looking forward to reading the agm presentation.
Enjoy it.!!!

[golden city]

Happy holding

[kiora]

Earnings around 20 cents/share,PE 7.5 I'm happy to have this given growth potential :)
Well positioned ?Time will tell

[golden city]

valueing at least 2 dollar upward

[baller18]

It's only a matter of time before trilogy opens up flagship stores in asia.
Over in asia, people are crazy for this rosehip oil thinge

[muss1]

Wow.

Still so cheap trading on forward PE of 10!

[Lizard]

valueing at least 2 dollar upward

Yep, that's my take too... pretty surprised and happy at that forecast, but value is still running ahead of market price, even after moving up to $1.70. :)

[percy]

Yep, that's my take too... pretty surprised and happy at that forecast, but value is still running ahead of market price, even after moving up to $1.70. :)

Lizard and Noodles ,thank you for bringing this company to my attention.

[Snow Leopard]

Wow.

Still so cheap trading on forward PE of 10!


NPBT of $10M -> $12M

NPAT of (approx) $8.32 -> $9.76M (assume last (approx) $4M of losses utilized)

EPS of (approx) $0.135 -> $0.158

Next year a full tax payer

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[muss1]

NPBT of $10M -> $12M

NPAT of (approx) $8.32 -> $9.76M (assume last (approx) $4M of losses utilized)

EPS of (approx) $0.135 -> $0.158

Next year a full tax payer

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Yep I have since realised that was a before tax number. Still happy though. Do others agree that based on their commentary they would have provided quite a conservative NPBT estimate?

[percy]

Yep I have since realised that was a before tax number. Still happy though. Do others agree that based on their commentary they would have provided quite a conservative NPBT estimate?

Yes.
I am most impressed with management.
Strong brands,CS acquisition makes for excellent logistics,company size and contacts.
Fabulous growth must make projections extremely difficult.I note same store sales are up in both Australia and NZ.
Even investing with an oil supplier in Lesotho in a larger state of the art oil press.

[DarkHorse]

I agree on all points Percy. Very impressed with directors in post AGM 'chats' today - I think Jim Collins would be too :) The word 'conservative' featured...wouldn't be surprised to see them exceed projections again. Very positive re CS. Growth in NZ and Australia will inevitably plateau due to the relatively small market for their products (albeit 'Goodness' brand is really taking off from a small base and doing even better than hoped), so long-term ongoing success in other markets will be crucial.

[golden city]

everything looks on track ..they mention 2 million dollar on interest for 39m loans. .which mean cheap finance too

[muss1]

Good news dark horse. Especially regarding the word conservative. Goodness brand is obviously a crucial growth area in the main markets. The holy grail being overseas markets, and if they make some progress there today's SP will be a thing of the past. I wonder what sort of forward PE the market will settle on - any ideas?

[percy]

My conservative PE would be 15.
My "blue sky" PE would be nearer 20.
With their high growth rate any PE under that growth rate must be "conservative".

[muss1]

Yeah that's what I'm thinking. Im basing my numbers on a PE of 15 (and low end of guidance) but would expect it to be higher as we close in on March 2016. PE expansion and better than forecast growth leaves a lot of room for SP growth. I also think we are getting close to brokers picking up coverage which will help PE expansion

[percy]

Yeah that's what I'm thinking. Im basing my numbers on a PE of 15 (and low end of guidance) but would expect it to be higher as we close in on March 2016. PE expansion and better than forecast growth leaves a lot of room for SP growth. I also think we are getting close to brokers picking up coverage which will help PE expansion

The CS acquisition takes TIL from a small high risk company,to a well managed medium sized company, with good growth prospects.
Would be a bonus to have brokers' coverage,but TIL will still reward us without their input.
I look forward to Noodles returning from his ban, and sharing with us both his growth and eps figures.
Then we can project the sp on PEs of 10,15 and 20.?!!??

[Snow Leopard]

everything looks on track ..they mention 2 million dollar on interest for 39m loans. .which mean cheap finance too

There mention that interest for the first half is expected to be a quarter of $2m (when they only owed a little money) so we can deduce that interest on the '$39M' (since mid-August) is about $1.5M.

And just to show that I do not always read things carefully - yesterday I received an SMS request from the other half managed to not see the important word in the middle and hot-pawed across the city to deliver totally the wrong thing.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Difficult one to put a 'precise' guess of even the near future for Trilogy.

So a worst case scenario:
Current value: $2.106
31-Mar-16 value: $2.223

A reasonable scenario:
Current value: $2.244
31-Mar-16 value: $2.376

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: obviously & DYOR

[golden city]

looking good.., somebody bought 180k at 1.64...plus yesterday at 1.60 of 100k plus.., looks another fund is accumulating or pie fund still buying

[Harvey Specter]

looking good.., somebody bought 180k at 1.64...plus yesterday at 1.60 of 100k plus.., looks another fund is accumulating or pie fund still buyingPIE just put out a big BUY in their most recent newsletter so could be copy cats?

[Joshuatree]

They are endorsing their earlier purchase at a lower price too late to copy atp.

Like their 3 phases of the great recession .Phase one being the GFC. 2 being EU Debt crisis and 3 being the current Commodity crisis and suggesting we are over halfway through it.

[golden city]

unusual volume...something happening

[Well Endowed]

after a week or two sitting around the $1.60s, up 8c this morning to $1.75. Next to no sellers left!!

[vin]

Thought something smelt good, frangipani perhaps? I've jumped aboard... :t_up:

[golden city]

looks good

[boysy]

Must say I dipped my toes into the water today, clearly it doesn't take much to move this one up or down it seems.

[muss1]

Any ideas what has caused this? I think it is still undervalued so it doesn't really need a reason, but something must be the catalyst

[golden city]

might be another profit upgrade

[Thor]

I think it is simply a very bullish NZ market at the moment. The sentiment has changed this month and everyone is scared of missing out. It looks like October is going to be one of the best performing months in years. It shall be interesting to see if it holds onto these gains, or gives some of them back.

[muss1]

Still nothing on the offer side at the end of the day. Tomorrow will be very interesting to see if there any profit takers out there. An SP of 2$ is still pretty good value on a PEG basis. Could quite easily justify an SP a lot higher than 2 as well. Exciting times ahead

[Well Endowed]

hit $1.86 this morning, low turnover ($53k) but tracking nicely! $2 over the next week or two might be a nice place to consolidate/ wait for the next guidance or trading update.

[golden city]

looking good..just lack of volume a bit to be perfect

[percy]

I do like speeding tickets.!! lol.

[golden city]

everytime ticket came..she drive more fast haha

[bull....]

my valuation is well over 2 for next 2 yrs

[golden city]

2.2 is my valuation now..next two years .2.50 to 3.60

[percy]

2.2 is my valuation now..next two years .2.50 to 3.60

I am happy to hold for two years,as I have great faith in your valuations...lol.

[muss1]

250 come March, with 220 as my low end. High end (which I think is likely) is 270+. Further out is pretty rosey, but I'd like more runs on the board before projecting further. I am in it for the long term though as signs are positive

[Well Endowed]

Agree with your sentiments, Will be holding long term here. Looks like everything is falling into place, the acquisition looks very complementary and Sales across all areas of the business are expanding nicely.

I'm hoping for a sustained SP appreciation with a breather around the $2 and a bit of share register 'churn'. Slightly longer term (12mth+) I could see Trilogy as a potential takeover target, (more likely to be private equity rather than a cosmetics brand given the distribution business and candle/homewares) which I think would need a price of around $3+ to stand any chance - as would still be a sub 200m marketcap.

[vin]

Down 3.9% today, wonder what's caused the dump

[Balance]

Down 3.9% today, wonder what's caused the dump

One big seller getting out. Could be the last of Sam Morgan's holdings.

[golden city]

doesnt look good

[muss1]

doesnt look good

Why do you say doesn't look good? We've had rises on more volume lately. I also think we will see strong support in and around the 160s should any more become available. The next phase of investors are keen to get in.

[golden city]

i was expecting it to go more up ..before half year announcement

[muss1]

i was expecting it to go more up ..before half year announcement

We pretty much know what's coming in the half year, so the market should already have priced it in. Although, TIL is currently undervalued in my opinion so "priced in" is a relative term.

I don't think there is anything to worry about. Announcements are very positive. The market hasn't bought into the TIL story completely yet and until it does we will see pretty random price action. For example why did it chose to run up to 190 recently on no news?

I think the an SP starting with 2 is easily justified and any random drops are a good chance to top up

[minimoke]

Down 3.9% today, wonder what's caused the dump

Pop over to the nz stock picking thread and you'll see the patented minmoke RNG stockpicker called it. :)

[sb9]

Why do you say doesn't look good? We've had rises on more volume lately. I also think we will see strong support in and around the 160s should any more become available. The next phase of investors are keen to get in.
Dipped my toes in today, been waiting on the sideline for good time to get in. Hope it plays out ok, looking out for the HY results.

[golden city]

should be safe..if you get in at 1.65

[Well Endowed]

Given the glowing endorsement Kate Middelton (and other celebs) gave to Trilogy Rosehip oil at the start of the year, it's interesting to note that its still sold out at Boots (largest UK pharmacy). The reviews for the product on average are excellent too.

http://www.boots.com/en/Trilogy/Trilogy-Rosehip-Oil/

[sb9]

should be safe..if you get in at 1.65
Got mine filled in tad over that price, which was within my target anyway, so can't complain.

I did my own research on this especially the presentation from ASM has helped a lot to understand their market structure and growth opportunities. And I got convinced that there is big growth tucked in this one, hence waiting for a good time to get in.

[vin]

Good buy for you sb9, 6% increase today

[sb9]

Good buy for you sb9, 6% increase today

Yeah, good to see short rise in a day, however not counting them yet as it can come down quicker too, just need another seller like y'day.
In any case, I'm in for long haul as they just started hitting big growth phase.
Wanted to lock in before HY results, am sure after that we will see the sp with 2 in front, just my theory.
Btw, anyone here know the exact release date of HY results (I know its sometime this month, may be later part?).

[bull....]

filled the gap in price was expected

[clarky]

Expecting some good results at next earnings, currently living in the UK and Trilogy products are now selling on Asos and Ocado. Also they are now included in Birch Boxes over here.

The U.K. Spends heaps on beauty products so can understand the push over here.

[sb9]

Expecting some good results at next earnings, currently living in the UK and Trilogy products are now selling on Asos and Ocado. Also they are now included in Birch Boxes over here.

The U.K. Spends heaps on beauty products so can understand the push over here.

Its music to my ears, thanks clarky keep us informed of those developments in UK.

[Well Endowed]

further to that you can see the ever expanding list of stockists here:
http://www.trilogyproducts.com/contact-us/where-to-buy/

UK, to name a few: Debenhams, Harvey Nichols, John Lewis & Wholefoods. - a pretty good lineup really.

They Even have it stocked in Antarctica @ the Scott base general store!

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/273365

Pie Funds increased their stake by another 743,914 shares taking their holding to 8.22% from 7.01%, sweet!

[IAK]

She's flying today. Glad my Mrs talked me into this one lol :t_up:

[LAC]

Wow, $1.96 and climbing

[NZSilver]

She's flying today. Glad my Mrs talked me into this one lol :t_up:

My Mrs talked me out of it at 60c, then a few months later I walked into our bathroom to see 3 different trilogy products! I did buy the share after that but at a higher price than 60c!

[clarky]

Just hit the $2 mark - that's huge

[Well Endowed]

good volume too, sellers have dried up completely!

[sb9]

Got to the $2 mark quicker than I expected, no complaints though. Bring on HY results :t_up:

[golden city]

love it...nice

[minimoke]

Dang, I'm never going to win the stock picking contest with days like this! Time for some serious pump and dump

[IAK]

My Mrs talked me out of it at 60c, then a few months later I walked into our bathroom to see 3 different trilogy products! I did buy the share after that but at a higher price than 60c!

Ha ha, classic. Well at least you got in NZSilver. My Mrs, swears by their products, which is good enough for me.

[Beagle]

Noodles will be proud of me. I have decided to ignore the fact that I personally can't relate to the products they sell and based on the growth rate and apparent modest PE this looks like a very sound opportunity.
I got in to this today too. Two new positions (NZR as well) in one day. See Noodles, Old grey dogs can learn new tricks :)

[sb9]

Noodles will be proud of me. I have decided to ignore the fact that I personally can't relate to the products they sell and based on the growth rate and apparent modest PE this looks like a very sound opportunity.
I got in to this today too. Two new positions (NZR as well) in one day. See Noodles, Old grey dogs can learn new tricks :)

OMG Roger, good on ya welcome on board ��