GEM - G8 Education - Childcare Operator

[shasta]

Been following GEM for a while now, & today has seen it up 7c to 69c on low volume

GEM gave a recent FY11 guidance

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GEM&E=ASX&N=222960

Dividend Policy (Qtrly dividends, No DRP)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GEM&E=ASX&N=223813

Unfranked dividends, but more importantly for NZ shareholders NRWT will be deducted (& is claimable)

Assuming 4 x Qtrly 1c dividends unfranked = 4/69 = ~5.8% yield

GEM has acquired more centres of late, by issuing more shares & these centres are meant to be earnings accreditive straight away so the earnings per share (FY11 guidance 7.6cps) should be maintained.

Still very much in growth phase, with managable debt, so upside is in increasing there size & scale

A break thru resistance at 70c would trigger a few indicators (couldnt post the chart, sorry)

[STRAT]

Hi Shasta.

Heres some colour for the new thread.

Would have been a good buy August last year and a sell in May this year using trend lines.


Not sure about that resistance at 70. Cant see any clear number but what is clear is that it has been tracking sideways for 5 and 1/2 months. To me the chart mostly shows the market isnt interested right now.

Intersting bit of volume through in the middle of last week. Not sure what that means. Certainly didnt have any real impact on the price. Might just have been shuffling of papers???

[shasta]

Thanks Strat

Off the Direct Broking chart i couldn't see the exact numbers, so was more guessing!

[shasta]

Thanks Strat

Off the Direct Broking chart i couldn't see the exact numbers, so was more guessing!

GEM - Presentation - "Investing in the future of childcare"

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GEM&E=ASX&N=224045

GEM now operates 140 centres, mostly based in Queensland, but includes all states in Australia except Northern Territory. With just 2 centres in Western Australia, both there & the Northern Territory are areas where they could continue to expand into.

Recently started paying out 50-60% of profit as quarterly dividends, Sept quarter was for 1cps

[shasta]

GEM - Presentation - "Investing in the future of childcare"

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GEM&E=ASX&N=224045

GEM now operates 140 centres, mostly based in Queensland, but includes all states in Australia except Northern Territory. With just 2 centres in Western Australia, both there & the Northern Territory are areas where they could continue to expand into.

Recently started paying out 50-60% of profit as quarterly dividends, Sept quarter was for 1cps

GEM - 2010 Financial Year Guidance

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GEM&E=ASX&N=224317

3/4 through the year & on track to meet guidance

[shasta]

GEM - 2010 Financial Year Guidance

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GEM&E=ASX&N=224317

3/4 through the year & on track to meet guidance

GEM - Placement & SPP

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GEM&E=ASX&N=224369

Approx 19m shares placed @ $0.69 to raise ~$13m to fund future acquistions

Shareholders can also apply for $5,000, $10,000 or $15,000 max, also @ $0.69

Nice to see the placement to sophisicated investors at market price (no discount)

There is still plenty of growth for GEM, especially in Western Australia where they have little presence so far

[shasta]

GEM - Placement & SPP

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GEM&E=ASX&N=224369

Approx 19m shares placed @ $0.69 to raise ~$13m to fund future acquistions

Shareholders can also apply for $5,000, $10,000 or $15,000 max, also @ $0.69

Nice to see the placement to sophisicated investors at market price (no discount)

There is still plenty of growth for GEM, especially in Western Australia where they have little presence so far

GEM - EGM Presentation

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GEM&E=ASX&N=224453

Highlights 2010 & 2011 guidance (2011 has a full year of the newly acquired centres)

65% of profit comes from the 2nd half of the year

[shasta]

GEM - EGM Presentation

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GEM&E=ASX&N=224453

Highlights 2010 & 2011 guidance (2011 has a full year of the newly acquired centres)

65% of profit comes from the 2nd half of the year

GEM up 5c to 80c - seems the new quarterly dividend policy & rights issue @ 0.69 having a positive effect

Disc: Nil

[shasta]

GEM up 5c to 80c - seems the new quarterly dividend policy & rights issue @ 0.69 having a positive effect

Disc: Nil

GEM - New SSH

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GEM&E=ASX&N=224893

So now we know whose being buying up of late, & they didnt push the price that much either, well done!

[COLIN]

Noted with interest, Shasta. However, personally, I am wary of investing in Childhood Education Centres, influenced no doubt by the ABC fiasco. There was also Kidicorp on the NZAX for a while, but that didn't seem to work and it was privatised by the major shareholder after a short while.

But GEM may have a better model, perhaps.

[shasta]

Noted with interest, Shasta. However, personally, I am wary of investing in Childhood Education Centres, influenced no doubt by the ABC fiasco. There was also Kidicorp on the NZAX for a while, but that didn't seem to work and it was privatised by the major shareholder after a short while.

But GEM may have a better model, perhaps.

GEM - Market Briefing (More Acquistions!)

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GEM&E=ASX&N=226576

Current share price $0.905, & market cap isnt small now, & getting very rich on a P/E basis, but still very much in growth mode & no signs of stopping.

Those who got in at the recent SPP @ $0.69 have done well, & GEM will continue to pay quarterly dividends at 50 - 60 % of profits

Disc: Nil, on watch still

[shasta]

GEM - Market Briefing (More Acquistions!)

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GEM&E=ASX&N=226576

Current share price $0.905, & market cap isnt small now, & getting very rich on a P/E basis, but still very much in growth mode & no signs of stopping.

Those who got in at the recent SPP @ $0.69 have done well, & GEM will continue to pay quarterly dividends at 50 - 60 % of profits

Disc: Nil, on watch still

GEM - New SSH

Northcape Capital Pty Ltd is now on the register with 5.99% or ~9m shares (acquired on market an av. $0.85)

Northcape Capital Pty Ltd

About Northcape:

Northcape Capital Pty Ltd (Northcape) is an independent, privately-owned investment manager dedicated to the management of equities. It’s majority-owned by its four founders, with a significant minority interest now also held by members of the small cap team.

Northcape believes value can be consistently added by taking advantage of short-term market inefficiencies through performing thorough bottom-up company research. Its multiple portfolio manager investment process allows freedom of investigation, analysis, valuation and judgement. Each portfolio manager runs a portfolio and also does company analysis. This differs from many managers who typically separate the research role from the portfolio management role.

[shasta]

GEM - New SSH

Northcape Capital Pty Ltd is now on the register with 5.99% or ~9m shares (acquired on market an av. $0.85)

Northcape Capital Pty Ltd

About Northcape:

Northcape Capital Pty Ltd (Northcape) is an independent, privately-owned investment manager dedicated to the management of equities. It’s majority-owned by its four founders, with a significant minority interest now also held by members of the small cap team.

Northcape believes value can be consistently added by taking advantage of short-term market inefficiencies through performing thorough bottom-up company research. Its multiple portfolio manager investment process allows freedom of investigation, analysis, valuation and judgement. Each portfolio manager runs a portfolio and also does company analysis. This differs from many managers who typically separate the research role from the portfolio management role.

GEM - Kindy Patch Business

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GEM&E=ASX&N=226966

The Kindy Patch business was acquired for 12m GEM shares (approx ~$10m at current share price)

Includes, 8 centres in Queensland & 22 in NSW

[winner69]

Nobody posted for 4 years

Been one of the stars of the ASX and now afr touts as a future bluechip

http://www.afr.com/p/markets/seek_rea_among_tomorrow_blue_chip_jDNMc2Lf9LdIlhVB guYfOM

[blocker3]

Nobody posted for 4 years

Been one of the stars of the ASX and now afr touts as a future bluechip

http://www.afr.com/p/markets/seek_rea_among_tomorrow_blue_chip_jDNMc2Lf9LdIlhVB guYfOM


So true winner69

I agree all the way. It has been good to me and will grow into the future.

[silverblizzard888]

Wow this is a great stock! Growing assets every year also growing liabilities but asset growth is outpacing it. Cash in hand now exceeds 100 million. Dividend paid seems to be increasing every 9 months or so. Revenue is constantly up every year along with profits.

I do have one question cause they seem to have announced a 20 cent per share dividend and google finance say they have 330.94 million shares. That would be $66 million in dividend, how is that sustainable in the long run when they last earnt only 31 million. They appear to like to increase dividend in the last 4 years so wouldn't make sense to do something thats not sustainable. Why increase to 20 cents when 18 cents the previous dividend is already more than they are earning. With a big increase in liabilities too, shouldn't they be paying some of that off with the money? I feel like I'm missing something.

[blocker3]

Wow this is a great stock! Growing assets every year also growing liabilities but asset growth is outpacing it. Cash in hand now exceeds 100 million. Dividend paid seems to be increasing every 9 months or so. Revenue is constantly up every year along with profits.

I do have one question cause they seem to have announced a 20 cent per share dividend and google finance say they have 330.94 million shares. That would be $66 million in dividend, how is that sustainable in the long run when they last earnt only 31 million. They appear to like to increase dividend in the last 4 years so wouldn't make sense to do something thats not sustainable. Why increase to 20 cents when 18 cents the previous dividend is already more than they are earning. With a big increase in liabilities too, shouldn't they be paying some of that off with the money? I feel like I'm missing something.

Hi silverblizzard888.

I am a bit lost on your question of the 66M dividend pool

Maybe this link will help. Pays .18c per share annually and is (.06c x quarterly)

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140811/pdf/42rdch0s41pkf3.pdf

GXL and GEM are my best ASX shares at the moment.

Cheers
Blocker3

[blocker3]

Another great day for G8 Education (GEM). Sorry people but this excellent growth stock does not deserve to be stuck back on Thread page 5.

I challenge anyone who reads this to have a good look at this stocks (TA and FA) and show me something -ve.

http://www.4-traders.com/G8-EDUCATION-LTD-9711633/


When on this web page above

1/Do check out the CONSENSUS tab
2/And do change to a 2 yr duration (from Auto)

(NZX stocks are flat until after the election. I started moving my portfolio over to the ASX last Feb,and therafter more so when the $NZ/AUS was high)

Also more info

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2014081...ch0s41pkf3.pdf (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140811/pdf/42rdch0s41pkf3.pdf)

Cheers
Blocker3

[edison]

This is one of the stock that I have bought using my super. Hopefully it will do well long term.

[blocker3]

This is one of the stock that I have bought using my super. Hopefully it will do well long term.

Hi edison

Great choice with GEM.We shall watch this space.

Cheers
Blocker3

[VL SNTCHR]

Hi edison

Great choice with GEM.We shall watch this space.

Cheers
Blocker3

Yes it is doing well blocker, but you should be cautious about recommending people to buy in...

A bit of a reality check with GEM is to take note that they are buying centres at 4xEBIT...yet look at what the market values GEM at...its a heck of a lot more than 4xEBIT!!!

They should be valued more than 4xEBIT (especially whilst they are acquiring centres at rapid pace due to a fragmented market) as they:

have a proven management team who is doing what they say
they have operational scale which helps in a number of ways including buying power, employee pool etc.,
they are (potentially) building a trusted brand
they are a listed entity with access to capital markets


So the above provides some reasoning for an increase in the multiple that the education centres are worth...but the question is - how much extra does the above warrant?!

[blocker3]

Yes it is doing well blocker, but you should be cautious about recommending people to buy in...

A bit of a reality check with GEM is to take note that they are buying centres at 4xEBIT...yet look at what the market values GEM at...its a heck of a lot more than 4xEBIT!!!

They should be valued more than 4xEBIT (especially whilst they are acquiring centres at rapid pace due to a fragmented market) as they:

have a proven management team who is doing what they say
they have operational scale which helps in a number of ways including buying power, employee pool etc.,
they are (potentially) building a trusted brand
they are a listed entity with access to capital markets


So the above provides some reasoning for an increase in the multiple that the education centres are worth...but the question is - how much extra does the above warrant?!

Hi VL SNTCHR.


Fair call on your first sentence. Point taken. I was basing my information off a valuation of $6.00 also.

Cheers
Blocker3

[klid]

Sad because I bought and sold this stock for $1.385 a couple of years ago after holding for a couple of months.

Shot up since then, as it was before too, is there still upside potential now?

[blocker3]

Sad because I bought and sold this stock for $1.385 a couple of years ago after holding for a couple of months.

Shot up since then, as it was before too, is there still upside potential now?

Hi Klid

I believe so. I have just purchased more shares in this company.

An independent link below may answer your questions

http://www.4-traders.com/G8-EDUCATION-LTD-9711633/

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140811/pdf/42rdch0s41pkf3.pdf



Cheers
Blocker3

[Joshuatree]

Ive read a thread on another forum where childcare centres in Aus are going to have to increase the staff to child ratio from 1 to 8 to 1 to 5 .Still trying to find that thead again .Can anyone else verify this?.Will the Govt increase subsidies or not. and how will it affect Owners (as opposed to operators) of centres like AET?

[Joshuatree]

Many Thanks to Karen for this. Some ratios already activated a few to come; varies within states.



Improved educator to child ratios


Improving educator to child ratios allows staff to give more individual care and attention and contributes to better social and learning outcomes for children. Educators are able to develop more effective and meaningful relationships with children, resulting in more engaged, happy and relaxed individuals.

Some states and territories have made provisions that affect requirements to services. These provisions are set out in chapter 7 of the National Regulations (http://www.acecqa.gov.au/national-regulations). For questions regarding these requirements, please contact your state or territory regulatory authority (http://www.acecqa.gov.au/Contact-your-Regulatory-Authority).
http://files.acecqa.gov.au/images/educator-child%20ratio%20chart_web_birth-24months.jpg
http://files.acecqa.gov.au/images/educator-child%20ratio%20chart_web_25-35months.jpg
http://files.acecqa.gov.au/images/educator-child%20ratio%20chart_web_36months-preschool.jpg
Centre-based services



Age of children
Educator to child ratio
Date requirement applies from


Birth to 24 months

1:4

1 Jan 2012 - in all states and territories
(1 August 2012 in WA)


Over 24 months and less than 36 months

1:5

1 Jan 2012 - in ACT, NT, TAS
1 August 2012 - in WA
1 Jan 2016 - in NSW, QLD, SA
Saving provision applies in VIC


Over 36 months up to and including preschool age

1:11

1 Jan 2012 - in ACT, NT
1 Jan 2016 - in QLD, VIC
Saving provision applies in NSW, SA, TAS, WA


Over preschool age
No national ratio has been set (state and territory ratios may apply)



Family day care services



Age of children
Educator to child ratio
Date requirement applies from


Birth to 13 years
1:7, with no more than four children preschool age or under
1 Jan 2012 - in ACT, QLD, SA, VIC
1 Jan 2014 - in NSW, NT, TAS, WA






- See more at: http://www.acecqa.gov.au/national-quality-framework/key-changes/improved-educator-to-child-ratios#sthash.XZ1CCm7s.dpuf

[Joshuatree]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-17/childcare-ratios-concern-for-sa-changes/5897918

Also this one (Karen) .Fees may go up $100 a week.

[blocker3]

Some more positive share movement today as the new pre school year kicks in.

[Joshuatree]

For what its worth.In the latest AFR Smart Investor; their annual"Hot stocks" picks where 12 "experts" pick their 2 best ideas for the year, two have picked GEM

[blocker3]

For what its worth.In the latest AFR Smart Investor; their annual"Hot stocks" picks where 12 "experts" pick their 2 best ideas for the year, two have picked GEM

I like independent positive information from another sector.
Thanks Joshuatree

[blocker3]

Looks like a tad of profit taking over the last 2 trading days

[blocker3]

Company info must be soon

[Joshuatree]

For what its worth.In the latest AFR Smart Investor; their annual"Hot stocks" picks where 12 "experts" pick their 2 best ideas for the year, two have picked GEM

Rev $491m up 79%
EBIT $107 m up 117%
NPAT $53m up 70%
EPS 16.15c up 43%

[babymonster]

impressive result..

[babymonster]

Why the sp drops?

[noodles]

Why the sp drops?

Didn't meet expectations?

[babymonster]

Didn't meet expectations?

i think the EPS was expect to be above 20c.. gee.. that's harsh..

[winner69]

i think the EPS was expect to be above 20c.. gee.. that's harsh..

Profit was $53m but .....


The result came in below the consensus among analysts surveyed by Bloomberg of net profit of $63.8 million for the 12 months ended December 31.

Revenue rose 79 per cent to $491.3 million, which missed expectations of revenue of $510 million.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/g8-education-profit-rises-70pc-to-53m-but-misses-expectations-20150216-13f9du.html#ixzz3RrQUZoV1

[winner69]

i think the EPS was expect to be above 20c.. gee.. that's harsh..

Been some dilution since anybody said 20 cents

On current number of shares EPS is 14.8 cents

The reported number of 16.15 is based on a weighted average number of shares.

What you reckon for next year babymonster

[babymonster]

at this rate of expansion and increase salary and admin cost, I think the EPS will be even lower.. hopefully they will slow down a bit and focus on increase revenue and profit from centres they acquired.

[Joshuatree]

For what its worth.In the latest AFR Smart Investor; their annual"Hot stocks" picks where 12 "experts" pick their 2 best ideas for the year, two have picked GEM

So, since ,it shot up to re $4.80 and now heading to re $3.80. Not looking good on da charts neither,still watching for poss entry.

[babymonster]

the debt is a bit high and the falling aus dollar didn't help..

[Joshuatree]

Another report i read(which i can't find) picked out GEM as one of the stocks to suffer with a lower $A. The singapore loan maybe.

[babymonster]

Yes. Not sure what will happen next. Seems like we a good ann. to pull the sp from the downtrend. But there is nothing I can think of.
Another report i read(which i can't find) picked out GEM as one of the stocks to suffer with a lower $A. The singapore loan maybe.

[blocker3]

Interesting

[Joshuatree]

Cant read it and no way am i giving them my email.

Meanwhile heres another rather damming 12 point view.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/inte...he-market8217s-best-sell-20150312-1427lj.html (http://www.smh.com.au/business/intelligent-investor/is-g8-education-the-market8217s-best-sell-20150312-1427lj.html)

[babymonster]

Yes, today's bounce might be just a short lift

[Joshuatree]

Re 6% plus drop today to $3.32 on 9 mill plus vol; a friendless trend continues.

[babymonster]

Gem has some more other serious issues as well.. Not looking good

[babymonster]

Great summary.. You should post it on hotcopper too. I bought it at high 4s, so still a long way. The 380 resistance is broken yesterday (4 or 5 times lucky), so it should run a bit upwards for now..

[Joshuatree]

Yes i agree; thanks KW. Little response from the mkt but they are a bit slow over there:).

[Joshuatree]

Childcare subsidies to boost G8 Education

http://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/childcare-subsidies-to-boost-g8-education-20150512-ggzlqw (http://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/childcare-subsidies-to-boost-g8-education-20150512-ggzlqw)

[Joshuatree]

GEM testing 180/200DMA , 2.6 millshares through,s/p $3.70. Holding tight at the mo,tree shaking?. Watching.

[babymonster]

Small holders don't like the annual meeting result. Just my thoughts

[Joshuatree]

Yes $350,000 increase in Directors fees and free shares issued too ?.Not a good look. Speculating too that maybe an Insto may be dumping too for a quick 30c gain and shorting going on. If the track record of increasing Rev and profits and purchase of centres continue this will be a blip.

[Joshuatree]

Def shorting having some affect

http://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=Gem (http://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=Gem)

[Joshuatree]

www.afr.com/business/g8-education-taking-stock-20150709-gi82t4 (http://www.afr.com/business/g8-education-taking-stock-20150709-gi82t4)

[Joshuatree]

Deutsche bank and MAQ b also positive.

http://www.afr.com/street-talk/analysts-say-g8-bid-opportunistic-20150705-gi5saz (http://www.afr.com/street-talk/analysts-say-g8-bid-opportunistic-20150705-gi5saz)

[babymonster]

$3.65 target is still below my average price😢

[Joshuatree]

8.5% jump today to $3.32 atp. Gem maybe on its knees but its stretching a long arm up to grab a relief pint of dark stuff with a frothy top. Suddenly not so far away bm.

[babymonster]

Yeah i need to watch it very closely. I might sell it tomorrow if it shows a sign of losing its momentum

[peat]

it got a recommendation ;)

[Joshuatree]

Keeping it to yourself peat? Pray share with us.:t_up:

[Joshuatree]

3 good announcements and GEM is away again ; looks good to me but I'm being biased somewhat.

[Joshuatree]

Up another 12c to $3.53 over 4 million shares thru; looking like new chairman, change of audit firm and purchase of 13 premium centres for $29.7 mill has instilled confidence going forward.

[Joshuatree]

Casting about for reasons to be cheerful (part three) i see s/p is up today when the streets are red; to $3.67 even after the overhang of NAB selling out.Phew:ohmy:

[winner69]

Stocksinvalue guy not entirely impressed with GEM and doesn't include it in his value portfolio

Questions sustainability of their business model and says 'G8 was a great investment for the early investors who then got out. It is less appealing now.'

Of he financial metrics his main reason for not liking is declining NROE .....but would e interested in value if price closer to BV (currently 2 times)

Found this on Business Spectator

[Joshuatree]

While its not a highest conviction stock in my portfolio i like the sector ,the new announncements above ,the rollups ; and am happy to see the breakaway chart.The previous chairlady had to go ;so many devious stories about her including hiring Actors for a GM!!:D:D. Just had alook at 4 traders and see an outperform and T/P$4.42. I don't have target price.

[Joshuatree]

Download Document 399.91KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYD6g a0wBKZp%2FJ0ke92GA%3D%3D) $212.8 mill Placement at re %9 premium to last share price but dilution ;12.45% extra shares. Debt reduced fro 2.2 to 1 .7 times. $200 mill to go to pay for re 50 more centres.

ps possible investment in china if figs stock up http://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...s/news-story/8ec70a9a2f3c5228a0f7865210513866 (http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/breaking-news/g8-educations-profit-hurt-by-rising-costs/news-story/8ec70a9a2f3c5228a0f7865210513866)

[Joshuatree]

Glorious chart unfolding here.Gems troubles are far away now.

Hope i haven't hexed it:sleep:

[Joshuatree]

I haven't verified it but I'm hearing the Child care reform act was passed hence the favourable lift in GEM today and MFD Mayfield ;a new rollup childcare company , mkt cap re $38 mill of which i fortuitously picked up some earlier @$1.23.

[WR888]

I haven't verified it but I'm hearing the Child care reform act was passed hence the favourable lift in GEM today and MFD Mayfield ;a new rollup childcare company , mkt cap re $38 mill of which i fortuitously picked up some earlier @$1.23.

There you go, Josh : https://theconversation.com/policycheck-the-governments-new-child-care-plan-75046

However,... I wouldn't call this new scheme as being very good,... not for us, nor for childcare operators,... how abt you ?

[Joshuatree]

Thanks mate and sorry my eyes have glazed over; tired not being an excuse but on a very quick peruse its a bit sad that lower income folk don't get to benefit but good that High income families don't now too; looks ok but hope to look again. GEM has strategies like focusing on metropolitan areas with more two parent working families. Maybe lower income families can go to Goodstart (not for profit). Going by the s/p of GEM its close to a 2 year high; int to see where to from here.MFD is at anew high.

[WR888]

Thanks mate and sorry my eyes have glazed over; tired not being an excuse but on a very quick peruse its a bit sad that lower income folk don't get to benefit but good that High income families don't now too; looks ok but hope to look again. GEM has strategies like focusing on metropolitan areas with more two parent working families. Maybe lower income families can go to Goodstart (not for profit). Going by the s/p of GEM its close to a 2 year high; int to see where to from here.MFD is at anew high.

Tq Josh,... yeah, since lower income families don't get subsidies anymore,... there is always Goodstart,.. That's why we have Goodstart there,... and it doesn't mean the children will turn out worse,... sometimes, when children are not given more options, they learn to survive better.

That Mayfield (MFD) operator,... I'm quite keen to know more. It has just IPO'ed, right ? Can you give me some comments and some details please ?

[Joshuatree]

Yes; Experienced in the sector.Check announcements back to nov 16. In for a swinger trade.DYOR

[Joshuatree]

MFD is an early stage rollup of 14 centres .Heres the theAnnual report just out PDF (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01842935). Wont comment anymore on the GEM thread.If i hold it longer will start own thread or someone else can. ps great mission statement:t_up:

[peat]

the recommendation changed , so likely this is cause for the drop today. Nothing bad , just overvalued .....

[WR888]

Well, went back up above 4.00 and closed at ard 4.07 ! The resilience is there,...

[Joshuatree]

Whose recco peat be int to see.?

FWIW had a look at 4-traders.com 4 buys , 2 outperforms, 1 hold , 1 sell. Av t/p $4.04 which certainly indicates fully valued.

[peat]

Whose recco peat be int to see.?


The Fool. The Motley Fool. I inadvertantly subscribed to one of their services. A colleague rec'd it in December too.
Its a good sector as long as the govt funds it. And G8 are a good at agglomeration , this company will probably do well

[WR888]

I'm holding GEM,... regardless of whether UBS sells after this or not,....

[Joshuatree]

Just read but haven't confirmed GEM is one of the top 10 shorted stocks atm; shenanigans and volatility ahead !!?:confused:

[Joshuatree]

Sold GEM a while back and switched to baby rollup MFD. Increased holdings a few days ago by 60% @ 92c.Worth a look DYOR

[Hectorplains]

Sold GEM a while back and switched to baby rollup MFD. Increased holdings a few days ago by 60% @ 92c.Worth a look DYOR

Good luck - I've been following them for a while. I'm not convinced. 92c may prove to be an astute entry point; cheap even if it all plays out positively. Too many question marks for me.

[Joshuatree]

Hi Hec, yes an oversupply of centres and stagnant govt subsidy/ rebates has not been good for operators but increased rebates start in july and the inefficient operators will drop out.Many will be locked into leases with an annual 4% rise is what ive read in the latest presentation. MFD is ready to rollup well sited centres in the next up cycle, starting soon i hope , for a rerate , this sector coming back into favour with investors into growth and a good D/Y. Time will tell.

[Hectorplains]

Hi Hec, yes an oversupply of centres and stagnant govt subsidy/ rebates has not been good for operators but increased rebates start in july and the inefficient operators will drop out.Many will be locked into leases with an annual 4% rise is what ive read in the latest presentation. MFD is ready to rollup well sited centres in the next up cycle, starting soon i hope , for a rerate , this sector coming back into favour with investors into growth and a good D/Y. Time will tell.

MFD share price in the low eighties and they've "anticipated" paying a full year dividend of 9.2 cps in early 2019.... If they hold to that guidance from mid Aug... that's a stonking return. Starting to look very interesting.

[Joshuatree]

Hi Hec , thanks i missed that . Looks like oversupply is with us for some time yet. MFD has flicked two inferior props and bought two better ones in Victoria. Im re 10% down but holding for longterm hopefully and yes that div is very juicy esp at current price of 83.5c!! Considering topping up but wary of the Macro atm.
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[Joshuatree]

MFD ,Good result and guidance outlook is up. S/p 105.5c, 8.9 c div after a really hard year things now look like up to me, we are over the hump. S/P responding up 6.5c atm (11c earlier).