Silver Ferm Farms

[percy]

Agree. Not a good look at all.

Yes disappointing.
Trust the issue is recognized ,and all their other plants are safe,or are being upgraded so it does not happen again..

[Sideshow Bob]

Company at top of dumping breach list takes on big new contract | RNZ News (https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/437130/company-at-top-of-dumping-breach-list-takes-on-big-new-contract)

Whilst not them direct, more sub-optimal publicity. Skins have traditionally been an environmental unfriendly part of the industry.

[percy]

Comments from SFF's Chief Executive,Simon Limmer in his fortnightly Market Report:

Silver Fern Farms works hard to ensure we are the best at what we do, and this includes our commitment to the community and the environment. However, unfortunately we don’t always get it right and this week we have had to front up to this reality again.



A year ago we had an ammonia incident at our Hāwera plant which exposed some of our people to unacceptable risk and had a really detrimental impact on the local environment. We have acknowledged what went wrong and worked hard, to the very best of our ability, to put things right. We have faced a prosecution by the Taranaki Regional Council, to which we pled guilty, and this week we accepted the Court’s findings and the associated fine.



While never a nice process to go through it is important to learn from this experience, and we have made some substantial changes to how we manage our ammonia and stormwater systems, not just at Hāwera, but at sites across the company. We have made a commitment to continue our work with local iwi, Ngāti Ruanui, to restore the Taw’iti stream.



For those interested in more detail you can read more on that by clicking here. Thank you to the Hāwera team and others leading our response to better managing ammonia. It has been a huge team effort and reinforces for me why we are investing to improve infrastructure and needing to lead the way when it comes to sustainability and environmental performance.

[Baa_Baa]

Good on him for fessing up, that is a true sign of leadership, honest and openly acknowledging fault as well as remediation. Reality is it doesn't really affect the company financials too much.

Fortunately they're not a listed company as this would be slaughtered on the bigger bourse. Loyal shareholders will brush it off, as a learning, or some other such event. As is with illiquidity, sometimes it works for you, sometimes it doesn't. This time it probably will.

[iceman]

Reports of African Swine Fever breaking out again in China, this time in their key pork-producing provinces of Sichuan and Hubei. If this gets out of control, it will have a major effect on protein demand in the market.
Percy we may well be "well positioned".

[percy]

Reports of African Swine Fever breaking out again in China, this time in their key pork-producing provinces of Sichuan and Hubei. If this gets out of control, it will have a major effect on protein demand in the market.
Percy we may well be "well positioned".

The excitement builds.
Online meat sales growing in overseas markets,together with restaurants due to reopen shortly ,the Chinese will drive up the demand for Silver Fern Farms grass feed red meats. .
The SFF result is due with in the next 6 weeks, and it should be good ,going by the market pushing the share price to 84 cents,an all time high.,Well up on the 45 cents it was a year ago.I expect similar share price growth in the coming year,helped by hopefully an increased fully imputed dividend.
Certainly we are "well positioned".

[Sideshow Bob]

17,000 just cleaned up at $0.84.

Did you need to get more "well positioned" this morning Percy??

[percy]

Not me.
Withdrew the wife's bid at 80 cents yesterday,.
Had been holding myself at the ready to buy those shares at 84 cents, if the result announcement said the divie had been increased to 6 cents or more.
However no result announcement from either SFF or PAZ as yet..
Been a long morning waiting.

[Sideshow Bob]

Turning into a long afternoon too Percy.

Not like have one result to keep ourselves entertained while we await the other......

[Sideshow Bob]

Here we go boys & girls....

Media_Release_Silver_Fern_Farms_Coop_Result__2020_ Final_310321.pdf (usx.co.nz) (https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2233/original/Media_Release_Silver_Fern_Farms_Coop_Result__2020_ Final_310321.pdf?1617156974)

[Sideshow Bob]

Here we go boys & girls....

Media_Release_Silver_Fern_Farms_Coop_Result__2020_ Final_310321.pdf (usx.co.nz) (https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2233/original/Media_Release_Silver_Fern_Farms_Coop_Result__2020_ Final_310321.pdf?1617156974)

Good solid result. Strung 2 years together, and through Covid.

6.5% net dividend (at todays price).
Coop still sitting on circa 20-22c cash per share.
Coop share means a net profit of about 30c per share.
Coop shareholder equity of about $3 per share.
PE still under 3......
SFF only paying out less than half their profit.

No mention of donning or doffing, or inventories - but maybe not much of an issue??

[percy]

Yes a very pleasing result.

[Sideshow Bob]

Yes a very pleasing result.

Now for the quinella...... :cool:

[percy]

Now for the quinella...... :cool:

Yes.??
SFF.Increasing the capital spend is positive.
A year ago I started buying. With help from Iceman and yourself, I have grown more comfortable with the business.and better understand it.Fortnightly reports from SFF Ltd's ceo Simon Limmer are also helpful.
I have steadily increased my holding and also brought a good amount for the wife.
Always a lot of reasons not to have a large holding,however I see the business is very well managed,has a strong balance sheet,is in the right sector supplying grass feed meat to New Zealanders and the world.
Marketing has seen NZ meat companies widen their chanels to customers.Online meat sales in the US are huge and growing,and as restaurants around the world reopen I see SFF being "well positioned."
The company's shareholder communications are excellent too.
https://farmersweekly.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=64d56a7c8a7c01570a582eec6&id=084217550a&e=4c7f670243

[Sideshow Bob]

Farmers Weekly

Team work pays off for SFF | Farmers Weekly (https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/beef/view/team-work-pays-off-for-sff)

[iceman]

I think this is a very good result given the global disruption we are facing, nearly identical result to last year which was a record result. I am pleased to see how they have reacted to the disruption and in particular how online sales are growing fast and SFF certainly seems well focused on this.
Having more online sales channels operating when we come out of the COVID situation may support future sales nicely.

While I was expecting a higher dividend I think the Board has taken a conservative approach and keep a lot of cash on the balance sheet, despite being debt free. I think this is prudent given the World circumstances but should in my view see even better dividends in the future, as long as they can maintain and/or grow profits.

It is great to see them have good results 4 years in a row and gives confidence that the new strategy is now well and truly working.
Yes Percy it sure has been a good investment in the last 18 months with SP growth of around 25-30% and another 20-22% gross dividend from the 2 dividends announced since then.
Not bad for a boring meat company :-)

A happy holder.

[iceman]

Now we need to see if the 4th good year in a row delivering a good profit and a healthy gross dividend of around 8.3% on today's share price and a P/E of 2.8, will raise more awareness and interest in this stock. They don't come much cheaper.

[Sideshow Bob]

To me, the key aspect is another consistent years profitability, and the signal that sends. In the past, profitability has been highly variable and mainly dependent on a number of factors largely outside of their control. Especially in light of the disruption of Covid, not only lockdown, but also shipping and effects on markets. Making profits regardless of market conditions will drive share price.

Not under the pressure of the old days with substantial debt and cashflow challenges, and freeing up management focus for elsewhere.

I would have (naturally) preferred to see a higher dividend, but March/April is likely their peak cashflow needs with the seasonality aspect of the business. Add in to that, that their inventory is almost certainly higher than last year - given pressures on coldstorage and container/shipping availability. At the same time, they are investing substantially in the business, and no doubt the Chinese shareholders are happy with a dividend - but will be taking a much longer term perspective. Bright Food have much more to worry about with their other major NZ investment.........!! (ie their pink-font loving milk company between Rolleston & Rakaia...).

Would think Alliance (and ANZCO) would have concerns given their relative lack of performance and strong amount of cash SFF now have in their business.

Whoever bought the 17-odd thousand shares yesterday at 84c got a good buy, as see onwards and upwards from here. Being Unlisted and off the radar means shares remain illiquid.....no reaction today and only offer is at $1.00........

[Sideshow Bob]

No sales since the profit announcement (excusing a small parcel of 960 leftover from prior sale).

No more has come on the offer side. 36,219 on offer at $1.00, which I think have been sitting there forever.

Best bid is $0.86, with someone else trying to pinch 95,000 at 0.85.

Even at $0.86, it is still 6.4% net divvy yield, payable at the end of the month.

Some are very well positioned......:t_up:

[percy]

Still a handsome divie of 5.5% at $1.00.....

[Sideshow Bob]

Still a handsome divie of 5.5% at $1.00.....

The maths becomes pretty easy!! Roll on a buck!

Or 8.2% gross at $1!!

[DarkHorse]

[QUOTE=Sideshow Bob;879279]To me, the key aspect is another consistent years profitability, and the signal that sends. In the past, profitability has been highly variable and mainly dependent on a number of factors largely outside of their control. Especially in light of the disruption of Covid, not only lockdown, but also shipping and effects on markets. Making profits regardless of market conditions will drive share price.

You hit the nail on the head SB. Incredibly cheap for an increasingly consistent performer in sector with tailwinds.

[iceman]

Still a handsome divie of 5.5% at $1.00.....

Not to mention my early forecast (yet again) of 7c next year :t_up:
One day I will be proven right, I hope.

[Sideshow Bob]

Traded at $0.90 this morning. Nothing new showing on the buy side.

[percy]

- - 20,000 0.900......The buyers.
- - 15,000 0.860
- - 30,000 0.850
- - 46,646 0.850
- - 540 0.840
- - 17,033 0.840
- - 15,760 0.810
- - 18,920 0.760
- - 10,000 0.750
- - 10,000 0.670
- - 9,383 0.660
- - 7,000 0.620
- - ..............................................The only seller is at $1.00 with 36,219 shares.

[Sideshow Bob]

Sorry my bad, should have said nothing new on the SELL side.

[Sideshow Bob]

Update - all those 36,219 at $1.00 have been cleaned out, and none on the offer/sell side.

Dividend yield easy to calculate.

PE has probably skyrocketed to be over 3 now......

:p

[percy]

Update - all those 36,219 at $1.00 have been cleaned out, and none on the offer/sell side.

Dividend yield easy to calculate.

PE has probably skyrocketed to be over 3 now......

:p

Yes being $1 makes it easy to work out the dividend yield.,,.lol.
And yes the PE has skyrocketed to 3.1.
We have known for some time the share price should be $1 [or well over],but it is still a very nice surprise when it happens.
Up 16cents or 19.05% for the day.

[iceman]

Yes Percy and now up 75% in the last 12 months and 2 fully imputed dividends combined around 25% gross on the purchase price back then. Who'd have though a meat company would return 100% in 12 months !!
Still undervalued in my view !!

Would you agree we are "well positioned" ?

[percy]

Yes Percy and now up 75% in the last 12 months and 2 fully imputed dividends combined around 25% gross on the purchase price back then. Who'd have though a meat company would return 100% in 12 months !!
Still undervalued in my view !!

Would you agree we are "well positioned" ?

Certainly would.....lol.

[Sideshow Bob]

Dividend notice - SFF_Corportate_Actions_20210408.pdf (usx.co.nz) (https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2242/original/SFF_Corportate_Actions_20210408.pdf?1617832610)

Record date 16/4/21, payable 28/4/21. 28% imputation

[percy]

https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2243/original/Silver_Fern_Farms_Media_Release_EECA_Decarbonisati on_Funding_080421_FINAL.pdf?1617837456

[percy]

http://www.silverfernfarms.coop/assets/AnnualReport/Annual-Report_2020_web.pdf

Well worth reading.
An excellent report.

[Sideshow Bob]

Record date for divvy tomorrow! :t_up:

[percy]

Pleasing seeing SFF trading up 5 cents at $1.05 ,ex the fully imputed 5.5cps dividend to be paid on 28th April.

[Sideshow Bob]

Pleasing seeing SFF trading up 5 cents at $1.05 ,ex the fully imputed 5.5cps dividend to be paid on 28th April.

Nice! :p

Interesting to see someone keen to buy AFTER the record date. Maybe they didn't realise......

[percy]

Nice! :p

Interesting to see someone keen to buy AFTER the record date. Maybe they didn't realise......

I thought the share price would drop to 94 cents after going past the record date.
Pleased to be wrong again.

[Sideshow Bob]

SFF claims fourth year of profit is proof of strategy working (ruralnewsgroup.co.nz) (https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/rural-news/rural-general-news/sff-claims-fourth-year-of-profit-is-proof-of-strategy-working)

[DarkHorse]

Net cash $22m Share of revenue c$1.2b Net Profit $32.4m mcap still <$100m!
Even allowing for loyalty dividends to suppliers (5-10m???) it looks extremely cheap

[iceman]

Net cash $22m Share of revenue c$1.2b Net Profit $32.4m mcap still <$100m!
Even allowing for loyalty dividends to suppliers (5-10m???) it looks extremely cheap

P/E of around 3.2. I agree with you DarkHorse. This is as cheap as they come with a very good solid dividend last 2 years and plenty of cash reserves for maintaining or increasing the dividend, given the strong market conditions & high prices we are currently seeing

[Sideshow Bob]

P/E of around 3.2. I agree with you DarkHorse. This is as cheap as they come with a very good solid dividend last 2 years and plenty of cash reserves for maintaining or increasing the dividend, given the strong market conditions & high prices we are currently seeing

I think Dark Horse is definitely preaching to the converted on this thread (all 3 of us) :p

Key for me (as mentioned probably several times previously) is them consistently making profit. We are starting to see signs of that, freed from the shackles of debt and cashflow of past years. While they are growing their brand and retail business, make no mistake the profits are made off their commodity business, especially beef.

Still challenges out there, but well placed vs their competition, and well managed.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/beef/view/sff-forecasts-production-growth

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/red-meat/sff’s-chairman-standing-down

[percy]

Yesterday I watched both the SFF presentation and the SFF Co-op AGM.
Great having them online.
Most impressed by SFF ltd ceo,Simon Limmer's communication skills.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/beef/view/sff-weighs-ongoing-covid-impact

[iceman]

I note with interest reading the notes from the Co-op meeting that they have decided a minimum holding of 1,000 rebate shares and will now initiate the redemption process. It is good to see they have started the process of cleaning up the SH registry and reducing the number of SH, many who may not even be found after decades have passed.
But I was surprised they talked about 11,500 shares. Surely this can not be all ?

[iceman]

https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/red-meat/sff’s-chairman-standing-down

He's finishing the remaining 2 years of his term though so a good orderly renewal.

[percy]

I note with interest reading the notes from the Co-op meeting that they have decided a minimum holding of 1,000 rebate shares and will now initiate the redemption process. It is good to see they have started the process of cleaning up the SH registry and reducing the number of SH, many who may not even be found after decades have passed.
But I was surprised they talked about 11,500 shares. Surely this can not be all ?

That is 11,500 share HOLDERS who hold under 1,000 shares each.
By reducing that large number of small shareholders they expect to save about $50,000 of share registry fees .
This is positive,and will not cost much.[Under $1 mil]
As for a proper share buy back,that seems to be a long way off,as the Coop board wants a very large safety net.They had $22mil plus this latest hold back of $5mil.Rebate shares being redeemed would cost under $13 mil so that rainy dday holding is mounting up.
A comment was made at the agm that most Coops got into trouble as they paid out too much to members.
I think this is a situation that although we may disagree with,we will have to accept their conservatism.
The way SFF Ltd ceo Simon Limmer spoke about how they were trading, and the fact they were increasing their capital expenditure yet again,makes me think we are in for another strong year.
In answer to a question about the rainy day fund being used to take advantage of an opportunity,the chairman said there was no opportunity under consideration.{sounded as though there never has been one].
Therefore if we have another strong year,I think the rainy day fund will come up again at next year's agm,and the board may find it difficult to explain why they are holding on to so much.
The attraction of SFF was their strong balance sheet,so retention of the rainy day fund just makes it stronger.

[iceman]

That is 11,500 share HOLDERS who hold under 1,000 shares each.
By reducing that large number of small shareholders they expect to save about $50,000 of share registry fees .
This is positive,and will not cost much.[Under $1 mil]
As for a proper share buy back,that seems to be a long way off,as the Coop board wants a very large safety net.They had $22mil plus this latest hold back of $5mil.Rebate shares being redeemed would cost under $13 mil so that rainy dday holding is mounting up.
A comment was made at the agm that most Coops got into trouble as they paid out too much to members.
I think this is a situation that although we may disagree with,we will have to accept their conservatism.
The way SFF Ltd ceo Simon Limmer spoke about how they were trading, and the fact they were increasing their capital expenditure yet again,makes me think we are in for another strong year.
In answer to a question about the rainy day fund being used to take advantage of an opportunity,the chairman said there was no opportunity under consideration.{sounded as though there never has been one].
Therefore if we have another strong year,I think the rainy day fund will come up again at next year's agm,and the board may find it difficult to explain why they are holding on to so much.
The attraction of SFF was their strong balance sheet,so retention of the rainy day fund just makes it stronger.

Thanks for the explanation. That is indeed a large number.
I was confused by the wording from the Chairman, or probably didn;t read it properly !! when he said:
"This will reduce our holdings by over 11,500 and significantly reduce our share registry costs."

[justakiwi]

So the minimum purchase will now be 1000 shares?


That is 11,500 share HOLDERS who hold under 1,000 shares each.
By reducing that large number of small shareholders they expect to save about $50,000 of share registry fees .
This is positive,and will not cost much.[Under $1 mil]
As for a proper share buy back,that seems to be a long way off,as the Coop board wants a very large safety net.They had $22mil plus this latest hold back of $5mil.Rebate shares being redeemed would cost under $13 mil so that rainy dday holding is mounting up.
A comment was made at the agm that most Coops got into trouble as they paid out too much to members.
I think this is a situation that although we may disagree with,we will have to accept their conservatism.
The way SFF Ltd ceo Simon Limmer spoke about how they were trading, and the fact they were increasing their capital expenditure yet again,makes me think we are in for another strong year.
In answer to a question about the rainy day fund being used to take advantage of an opportunity,the chairman said there was no opportunity under consideration.{sounded as though there never has been one].
Therefore if we have another strong year,I think the rainy day fund will come up again at next year's agm,and the board may find it difficult to explain why they are holding on to so much.
The attraction of SFF was their strong balance sheet,so retention of the rainy day fund just makes it stronger.

[percy]

So the minimum purchase will now be 1000 shares?

Perhaps not.
The 11,500 shareholders hold rebate shares..They once supplied SFF with stock.Of the 11,500 holding less than 1,000 rebate shares.I think from memory just 350 of them are current suppliers to SFF.I would guess most of these small share holdings go back 20 to 40 years.
Usually when companies are taking out small shareholders they give you the option to hold,or increase you holding.Sometimes you have to increase your holding to a minimum.
Therefore I see no reason why you could not buy 500 shares,with the view of increasing,however I would think it would be prudent to start with 1,000.

[justakiwi]

Thanks Percy :)


Perhaps not.
The 11,500 shareholders hold rebate shares..They once supplied SFF with stock.Of the 11,500 holding less than 1,000 rebate shares.I think from memory just 350 of them are current suppliers to SFF.I would guess most of these small share holdings go back 20 to 40 years.
Usually when companies are taking out small shareholders they give you the option to hold,or increase you holding.Sometimes you have to increase your holding to a minimum.
Therefore I see no reason why you could not buy 500 shares,with the view of increasing,however I would think it would be prudent to start with 1,000.

[Sideshow Bob]

Nice start to the week - the 30,000 at $1.05 already been taken out. :)

Looks like its price is continuing to race PAZ......

[iceman]

Nice start to the week - the 30,000 at $1.05 already been taken out. :)

Looks like its price is continuing to race PAZ......

Holy smoke. The P/E is about to race past 3. Where will this end ???

[Sideshow Bob]

Holy smoke. The P/E is about to race past 3. Where will this end ???

PE of over 3.....WTF!! The world has gone crazy!! :p:blink::laugh:

Next thing you'll be saying they have no debt, a stack of cash in the bank and shares valued at a fraction of book value!!

[Sideshow Bob]

Boom! $1.10!! :t_up:

[iceman]

Red meat exports in March were $ 1.04 Billion, only the 2nd time monthly exports have reached the $ 1 Billion mark. The other was March 2020, before COVID hit.

China is strong and took 45% of our red meat exports in March worth $ 464M, up 35% from same period last year.

Exports to China over the last 12 months remained same as previous period, $3.6B and our second biggest market USA is also strong, up 8% to $1.8B
But UK & Japan down $780M combined.

Quite an amazing result given COVID problems and shipping constraints. Indications are that our 2 biggest markets, China & USA are fast getting on top of the virus and demand for quality red meat is strong in both countries.

[Sideshow Bob]

Latest report, based on Westpac's article.

Looking positive for beef and lamb for the remainder of the year (as long as we don't upset China and they hit us where it hurts).....

The price lift for global meat prices Westpac expected back in March has come sooner and stronger than expected. With the vaccine rollouts going well, particularly in the US and UK, meat prices will peak higher than previously expected | interest.co.nz (https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/110402/price-lift-global-meat-prices-westpac-expected-back-march-has-come-sooner-and)

[iceman]

Argentinian Government has just announced a 30 days ban on meat exports due to crazy local politics. A huge majority of Argentinian beef goes to China so this could create an opportunity for NZ producers now during peak cow culling season, for some of their low grade meat. Hopefully they can find containers to ship it in !!

[Sideshow Bob]

Exporters welcome shipping relief | Farmers Weekly (https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/agribusiness/view/exporters-welcome-shipping-relief)

Key point is here 80% of the cargo were Kotahi customers. Would have to think their 2 shareholders (SFF and Fonterra) got a fair slug away on this vessel.

1914 reefers could be over 25,000MT of refrigerated cargo.....!! :mellow:

[iceman]

Exporters welcome shipping relief | Farmers Weekly (https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/agribusiness/view/exporters-welcome-shipping-relief)

Key point is here 80% of the cargo were Kotahi customers. Would have to think their 2 shareholders (SFF and Fonterra) got a fair slug away on this vessel.

1914 reefers could be over 25,000MT of refrigerated cargo.....!! :mellow:

This is great news. The congestion and lack of containers is a real worry, particularly now that SFF is having a bumper year and incredibly robust market conditions. So hopefully they get to ship all their product promptly.

[Sideshow Bob]

This is great news. The congestion and lack of containers is a real worry, particularly now that SFF is having a bumper year and incredibly robust market conditions. So hopefully they get to ship all their product promptly.

Farmer frustrated by works cattle delays - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/the-country/news/farmer-frustrated-by-works-cattle-delays/LPPE6Q7IE422PEHFSOWVD4F6TI/)

March & April were good shipping months for SFF.....although they do need to be as would be pumping.....

Can see national production figures here: Production Data | New Zealand Meat Board (nzmeatboard.org) (https://www.nzmeatboard.org/the-industry/production-data/)

Dry conditions over much of the country, so kill probably more advanced than usual. So could be less to come/more competition for stock/higher prices over the winter months. But is often the case.

[iceman]

One of Australia's biggest meatworks company paralyzed with a cyber attack.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/cyber-attack-shuts-down-australias-biggest-meatworks/S4BLF3QBWQBQ4P2MXQ7T5FC4FI/

[percy]

Frightening.
All my holdings would be affected,including PAZ,SFF,GNE,HGH,and SPK.
I would guess SPK would be the worst affected.

[percy]

Frightening.
All my holdings would be affected,including PAZ,SFF,GNE,HGH,and SPK.
I would guess SPK would be the worst affected.

[iceman]

Frightening.
All my holdings would be affected,including PAZ,SFF,GNE,HGH,and SPK.
I would guess SPK would be the worst affected.

When assessing SFF as an investment opportunity this time last year and all the various risks that entailed, I never ever considered a cyber attack, but this is probably an increasing risk for share investors in general and something to be aware of.

[iceman]

Frightening.
All my holdings would be affected,including PAZ,SFF,GNE,HGH,and SPK.
I would guess SPK would be the worst affected.

When assessing SFF as an investment opportunity this time last year and all the various risks that entailed, I never ever considered a cyber attack, but this is probably an increasing risk for share investors in general and something to be aware of.

[Sideshow Bob]

China Daily Article

Silver Fern Farms cashes in on firm meat demand - Chinadaily.com.cn (http://epaper.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202106/02/WS60b6cc0ea31099a2343568dc.html)

[percy]

China Daily Article

Silver Fern Farms cashes in on firm meat demand - Chinadaily.com.cn (http://epaper.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202106/02/WS60b6cc0ea31099a2343568dc.html)

Thanks for posting such an interesting article.
Very pleasing seeing the digital e-commerce channel's strong growth.

"Since the pandemic, the company has worked with e-commerce platforms such as JD to sell products, thus meeting Chinese consumers' rising demand to cook at home."

"During the past six months, our online sales have doubled in the China market," Wang said. "New channels such as e-commerce, community group buying and livestreaming e-commerce will not only help us sell more products, but also bring Silver Fern Farms closer to customers in China."

[Sideshow Bob]

SFF reflects on Shanghai Maling partnership | Farmers Weekly (https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/beef/view/sff-reflects-on-shanghai-maling-partnership)

Many thought at the time that they'd paid way too much, far in excess of any other offer - but ended up being a very good investment. No competition with Bright Foods other major NZ investment......

[Sideshow Bob]

Overview of meat processors 2020 profitability. Page 41

https://issuu.com/farmersweeklynz/docs/fw1406/1?ff&showOtherPublicationsAsSuggestions=true

[iceman]

Shipping continues to be a major challenge for ALL exporters https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/agribusiness/view/pulse-shipping-a-long-term-challenge

[Sideshow Bob]

Beef prices tracking the right way......

Supply chain drag on US beef bonanza | Farmers Weekly (https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/beef/view/supply-chain-drag-on-us-beef-bonanza)

[Sideshow Bob]

Just noticed share price slid back to 0.90c - perhaps time to buy some more......or at least a cheeky bid!

[iceman]

Serious staff shortages at SFF in Northland and right across the industry. An article in the Herald today behind the paywall https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/millions-lost-because-of-staff-shortages-after-covid-19-closed-the-border/B3XQEHCLTOLKQJWIQNFPSFITAY/

[Beagle]

Shipping continues to be a major challenge for ALL exporters https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/agribusiness/view/pulse-shipping-a-long-term-challenge


Serious staff shortages at SFF in Northland and right across the industry. An article in the Herald today behind the paywall https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/millions-lost-because-of-staff-shortages-after-covid-19-closed-the-border/B3XQEHCLTOLKQJWIQNFPSFITAY/

I like the cut of your jib mate. You're not afraid to post objective articles about the serious challenges faced despite holding a large sized stake in the company. Hat tip to you.
For what its worth I think the shipping issue is "bigger than Texas" and isn't going away anytime soon and is going to affect a lot of companies.

[Sideshow Bob]

For what its worth I think the shipping issue is "bigger than Texas" and isn't going away anytime soon and is going to affect a lot of companies.

Certainly it isn't going away for a while and a major for many companies. Shipping companies have some cost, but also some price gouging going on in areas.

For meat companies, apart from just plain getting product to customers on time, a major issue is chilled - ie uncertainties when product will load and when it will arrive. There are stories about containers arriving after its due date - lose the chilled "premium" and also potentially have further risks/costs than just packing frozen. Airfreight expensive to many chilled destinations like the EU.

In terms of SFF, will be a challenge - but see post #310. While still challenging, would think they'd be fairing better than many of their NZ competitors.

[percy]

Silver Fern Farms Ltd's CEO Simon Limmer comments to farmers suppliers and shareholders.in one of his fortnightly updates.

Responding
to Global
Supply Chain
Disruption
We’ve previously signalled the ongoing disruption in the Global
Supply Chain and the congestion it creates back through New
Zealand ports and into our own cold chain. These disruptions
have not lessened and in some cases have deteriorated
further.
For context, all of our 20 cold stores across the country are
running at ~90% capacity, and a slight delay to shipping
schedules could see these reach 100%. At times these
constraints have meant we have not been able to fully optimise
our capacity by working the volume of daily overtime or
Saturdays we would like.
Throughout this challenging period we’ve worked closely with
our logistics partners to ensure we maximise our physical
loading of product from our cold stores to our markets.
Pleasingly, we achieved a record export month for March,
amidst these trying circumstances. However our cold stores
remain close to capacity and our daily objective of maximising
loadouts from cold stores and minimising the disruption to our
farmer partners continues. Given these circumstances we have
implemented a team solely focused on ‘Keeping Silver Fern
Farms Moving’ – this team has the best interest of our farmer
partners front of mind.
Today’s operating environment is fluid, with hot spots
appearing frequently and in multiple locations across the
country.
For example: an export vessel is delayed three days into a
South Island port, this port becomes congested with outbound
containers and closes temporarily. Silver Fern Farms cannot load
out and our cold stores in this region reach capacity. A decision
is needed quickly around processing capacity and livestock
procurement.
When this occurs we have the benefit of utilising Silver Fern
Farms’ national network to move livestock between regions
where there is less supply chain pressure, minimising the impact
on our overall weekly kill tally.
As an example Silver Fern Farms has moved over 40,000 stock
units between the North and South Islands over the last six
weeks, to help ease pressure off a number of farms.
The great news is that demand for our safe, sustainable, grassfed products continues to be strong in all our key markets. The
immediate challenge is getting our product through the supply
chain and to our customers around the world.
I personally want to thank everyone that is making this happen
in such challenging circumstances

[iceman]

I like the cut of your jib mate. You're not afraid to post objective articles about the serious challenges faced despite holding a large sized stake in the company. Hat tip to you.
For what its worth I think the shipping issue is "bigger than Texas" and isn't going away anytime soon and is going to affect a lot of companies.

It is of paramount importance that we investors in primary industries and any export businesses for that matter, follow closely the serious challenges these industries face with staff shortages and transport. These issues also have direct negative effect on NZ Inc and our economy because primary exports is what is driving our economy at the moment. We can not afford any serious hickups.

I spoke to a guy today who told me about the same issues in the Greenshell Mussels industry where production has been cut back in a big way due to staff shortages and as an example, a factory that used to employ 300 staff (historically many of them temporary visa holders) could now only get 100 which is not to keep the factory going so is now trucking mussels long distances to another factory.
Sadly, like the SFF article in the Herald clearly states, the Government does not seem to understand the consequences of not allowing temporary workers in.

[Sideshow Bob]

How long ago was that Percy?

Production should be tapering off at many plants, so hopefully situation should be easing.....

[Mr Slothbear]

Just watched both parts of the AGM videos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=825HqsPGMd0&t=2402s

must say i was very shocked at the answer given to the final question, skip to around minute 38 where they start talking about hoping ‘dry’ that is non supplying shareholders will drop out due to missing out on patrinage rewards.


hmmmmmmm !!

[percy]

Just watched both parts of the AGM videos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=825HqsPGMd0&t=2402s

must say i was very shocked at the answer given to the final question, skip to around minute 38 where they start talking about hoping ‘dry’ that is non supplying shareholders will drop out due to missing out on patrinage rewards.


hmmmmmmm !!

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

[percy]

Just watched both parts of the AGM videos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=825HqsPGMd0&t=2402s

must say i was very shocked at the answer given to the final question, skip to around minute 38 where they start talking about hoping ‘dry’ that is non supplying shareholders will drop out due to missing out on patrinage rewards.


hmmmmmmm !!

Yes came as a bit of a surprise.
However us "dry" shareholders are enjoying ,and will continue to do so a very generous dividend,while supplying shareholders will get a bit more.
Reducing the huge number of supply shareholders,who are no longer supplying, will save costs and tidy up the share register.
What will be interesting is seeing how they reclassify the shareholders between dry and suppliers,keeping in mind "dry" shareholders supply liquidity.
I have found SFF open and honest, and I expect they will make sure "all" shareholders are looked after,and all shareholders have benefitted from SFF encouraging more suppliers to become shareholders.
I think NZSA are following SFF ,which adds a bit of a safety net ,together with The NZ Companies Office..

[GTM 3442]

Just watched both parts of the AGM videos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=825HqsPGMd0&t=2402s

must say i was very shocked at the answer given to the final question, skip to around minute 38 where they start talking about hoping ‘dry’ that is non supplying shareholders will drop out due to missing out on patrinage rewards.


hmmmmmmm !!

B*gger that for a game of soldiers!

Some of us "dry" shareholders have been on the register for a long time - including sweating it out through the doubt over whether they'd be able to repay their bl**dy bonds, missing dividends year after year, and all the rest of it.

SFF were happy to take the money and provide a pretty lacklustre performance in return.

If this nonsense keeps up, I might have to turn up to the next meeting! What are the refreshments like?

[kiora]

A lot of beef mince pies probably !

[Mr Slothbear]

B*gger that for a game of soldiers!

Some of us "dry" shareholders have been on the register for a long time - including sweating it out through the doubt over whether they'd be able to repay their bl**dy bonds, missing dividends year after year, and all the rest of it.

SFF were happy to take the money and provide a pretty lacklustre performance in return.

If this nonsense keeps up, I might have to turn up to the next meeting! What are the refreshments like?


i am not currently a shareholder but have been doing my due dilligence for quite some time and found the attitude towards capital holders shocking. Its that exact attitude that sees so many co ops underperform or fail

Percy thank you for your excellent post. The first chap from part 1 video was excellent and the operating company clearly has very capable forward thinking management .
http://www.silverfernfarms.coop/about-us/our-news/latest-news/video-2020-annual-meeting/

it is instances like these where organisations like the NZSA really do shine and add real value to the smaller investor and give voice to real concerns. I don’t think a few emails to the board expressing concern over that would go amiss either but as you rightly point out it may have been an act of politics and diplomacy in a room where many are suppliers to the company and dry investors have certainly done well the past two years.

i do find the 5 year combined NPAT target of $150m over 5 years very puzzling as really doesn’t seem like they’re aiming high. Thats a very low return on assets or equity. Also weird they haven’t updated it as they’re now sitting at a combined total of around $130m after two years, so surely they could at least aim for a target of $200m over 5 years?

[percy]

The comments about dry shareholders dropping out is not consistent with how we have been treated.The CoOp's investor relations man,Clark Taylor, has helped me and others with honest answers to our questions.He replies straight away to any emails.I receive fortnightly updates from SFF Ltd 's ceo Simon Limmer.So their communications are excellent.
The dividend dry shareholders received last year together with this year was not a lot less than supplier patronage shareholders received.
Yes they are miles ahead of their 5 year target.Remember when that target was set SFF had a dreadful record,so the target was something to aim for at the time.
A positive is the amount of capital SFF Ltd are spending on upgrading their business.Two years ago it was $30mil,last year $50 mil and this year it will be $70 mil.

[iceman]

I agree Percy that the very unfortunate comment by the outgoing Chairman is not consistent with the way they have treated dry shareholders. Like you, I have had several communications with Clark and have found him very quick and clear in his answers.
I feel they currently have the split between dividends and patronage rewards well balanced.
One way they will push up the percentage of supplying shareholders is when they undertake their stated share register clean up. There are lots of inactive sh on the registrar that they don't even have any details for, including whether they're alive or not.
But the Chairman's finish was very unfortunate.

Great to see the NZSA being there and I agree they can be really helpful for us dry sh with companies like SFF. I hope we all support them.

[iceman]

I agree Percy that the very unfortunate comment by the outgoing Chairman is not consistent with the way they have treated dry shareholders. Like you, I have had several communications with Clark and have found him very quick and clear in his answers.
I feel they currently have the split between dividends and patronage rewards well balanced.
One way they will push up the percentage of supplying shareholders is when they undertake their stated share register clean up. There are lots of inactive sh on the registrar that they don't even have any details for, including whether they're alive or not.
But the Chairman's finish was very unfortunate.

Great to see the NZSA being there and I agree they can be really helpful for us dry sh with companies like SFF. I hope we all support them.

[Beagle]

I ran the ruler over this a while back and one of several key reasons I didn't invest is the issue around how murky the situation is with regard to who get's the lion's share of the feed each year. From what i could see there are no clearly defined disciplines around this and distributions are allocated on an ad hoc basis however the board sees fit to do so. At the end of the day it is a cooperative and it doesn't have the clearly defined business structure of a commercial company. In addition a lot of their plant and equipment is extremely old and I foresee huge capex going forward.
Returns in this industry have historically been extremely cyclical and conferred a very poor return on equity.
In addition the shares are highly illiquid.

The comments in the video were shocking.
Freight, logistics and staff issues are clearly very serious matters.
Cheap metrics for sure...but for a range of good reasons in my opinion. Its not for me but good luck to dry shareholders.

[percy]

Co-operative $8.1m Distribution of
Dividend and Patronage Reward
Your Co-operative Board have decided to make a
distribution by way of a $6.3m dividend to all Ordinary
and Rebate Shareholders, as well as a $1.8m Patronage
Reward distribution. Combined this takes the total
distribution to qualifying shareholders to $8.1m.
The shareholder dividend equates to a net return of 5.5
cents per share fully imputed (7.6 cents per share gross).
The quantum of dividend reflects a tax paid return on
84 cents share price (as at 29/3/21) of 6.54% for
all shareholders.
The record date for the dividend is 16 April 2021.
The Patronage Reward will be distributed to shareholdersuppliers who are identified as eligible as at 31 December
2020 and who have an aligned shareholder-supplier
match. To be eligible, shareholder suppliers must
have supplied a minimum of 400 livestock units in the
2020 calendar year direct via our network of Livestock
Representatives. They will receive 5.7 cents per eligible
share fully imputed (7.9 cents equivalent gross).
Combined, the distribution of Dividend and Patronage
Reward reflects a tax paid return on 84 cents share price
(as at 29/3/21) of 13.28% for eligible shareholders.
We trust shareholders will see this as strong
acknowledgement of the commitment of all
Co-operative members, who, along with their
communities, and the New Zealand economy
as a whole, will benefit from this distribution.
The Share Standard
is based on the typical volume of stock units
that a supplier provides to Silver Fern Farms in
a calendar year.
A lamb/bobby/mutton represents
1 stock unit
a deer 6 stock units and
a cattle beast 12 stock units.
To qualify as fully-shared the following applies:
• For supply up to 5,000 stock units, the multiplier is 8
shares per stock unit, and over 5,000 stock units an
additional 3 shares per stock unit.
• Our largest suppliers only need to hold 200,000
shares in the Co-operative to be classified as
fully-shared

[percy]

Dividend and Patronage Reward
YEAR DIVIDEND
PER SHARE
PATRONAGE REWARD
PER SHARE
PAID OUT
2017 2.8c 2.8c April 2018
2018 – 3.0c* April 2019
2019 5.4c 6.0c August 2020
2020 5.5c 5.7c April 202

[percy]

http://www.silverfernfarms.coop/investor-information/annual-reports/
For anyone who wishes to read SFF latest annual report.

[percy]

Company Name:Silver Fern Farms Co-operative Limited
Security:Silver Fern Farms Ords
Code:SFF
ISIN:NZSFFE0001S5
Listing Date:01/10/2009
Number of Shares Issued:100,378,874
Market Capitalisation:85,322,043
Last Price:0.850
Last Financial Year EPS:0.3537
P/E Ratio:2.403
Last 12 Months Gross Dividend Yield:6.353%

[percy]

52 week Number of Trades289
52 week Volume2,901,107
Last 12 Months Gross Dividend (NZ$)0.054

Liquidity.Nearly 3% of the shares on issue were traded.

ps.No of trades 289,slightly more than the 278 PAZ number of trades.

[percy]

Co-operative’s share of net assets of Silver Fern Farms Limited
Net assets of Silver Fern Farms Limited (100%)
NZD IN THOUSANDS ($000) 2020 2019
ASSETS
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents 11,038 2,897
Trade and other receivables 245,712 287,780
Derivative financial instruments 14,364 17,109
Inventories 254,489 228,630
Tax receivable 12 -
Non-current assets classified as held for sale - 18,130
Total current assets 525,615 554,546
Non-current assets
Property, plant and equipment 320,319 295,088
Intangible assets 3,787 3,628
Investments in associates 21,881 17,483
Shares in unlisted companies 101 81
Right-of-use assets 18,059 14,316
Total non-current assets 364,147 330,596
TOTAL ASSETS 889,762 885,142
LIABILITIES
Current liabilities
Trade and other payables 141,415 134,032
Interest bearing loans and borrowings 64,392 130,773
Tax provision 26,617 6,037
Provisions 6,888 5,962
Derivative financial instruments 156 48
Lease liabilities 6,577 4,474
Total current liabilities 246,045 281,326
Non-current liabilities
Provisions 12,392 10,020
Deferred tax liabilities 9,848 12,653
Lease liabilities 11,973 10,120
Total non-current liabilities 34,213 32,793
TOTAL LIABILITIES 280,258 314,119
Net assets of Silver Fern Farms Limited (100%) 609,504 571,023
Co-operative’s share of net assets (50%) 304,752 285,511
Goodwill on initial recognition 15,421 15,421
Equity accounted investment in Silver Fern Farms Limited 320,173 300,93

[iceman]

Good news from the UK overnight with an agreement in principle of a NZ/UK FTA to be signed in August.

[Sideshow Bob]

I'm pretty shocked at the comments and will be interested to hear from feedback comes from the Coop, and probably not well put. Probably didn't help that the YouTube video cut off abruptly at the end! :scared: Richard Young didn't seem to have any handle on the numbers at all, considering "just been discussed this morning", and I thought this would have been fundamental info in this position.

I'm with GTM on this, as have a long history with the company, and while not a supplier myself, been a bondholder (which looked pretty dodge for redemption for a while), wider family supplied etc etc. However it is a different "beast" to 6-8 years ago and echo Percy's comments in #333

Would be good to get some clarity, because undoubtedly dry investors have provided liquidity and supported the share price over recent times. Otherwise why not just be a Zespri and have to be a supplier to trade/own shares? I think the issue is coming up because of profitability, and 2-3 good years, with the prospect of another - so haven't really had the issue of who gets the "lions share of the feed". Especially when alot of it has been stacked away.

So was around 32-33% of shares supplied over 400 stock units (which I would have thought a pretty low bar), and about 63-64% of Coop supply was from shareholders.

I can understand the desire to have supply as shareholders - without supply they are nothing and anything to try to make that supply more sticky. Especially when cow numbers are forecast to decrease, beef capacity increasing in the South Island, and farming is under pressure for alternate land use (eg trees) and from the govt. As a large fixed cost business means more livestock, more efficient and lower costs per unit.

That patronage reward has been at worst equal to non-supplying shares dividend over the last 4 year, usually higher. Makes it pretty compelling for farmers - over 30c dividends in the last 4 years. Problem being history and been historically poor performance.

In theory, if owning shares was compelling for dry investors, then it should be extra compelling for farmers to buy shares and the market do its thing. It just doesn't seem to be currently........

[Sideshow Bob]

In addition a lot of their plant and equipment is extremely old and I foresee huge capex going forward.
Returns in this industry have historically been extremely cyclical and conferred a very poor return on equity.

The comments in the video were shocking.
Freight, logistics and staff issues are clearly very serious matters.
Cheap metrics for sure...but for a range of good reasons in my opinion. Its not for me but good luck to dry shareholders.

Most plants are historic sites - a number over 100 years old (although a few SFF sites like Fairton, Canty have now gone, probably at least 3 SFF sites), while a good number would be 60's/70's/80's. While the structure of the plants (in some areas) may be old, the sub-structure is more modern - these guys operate under MPI, have various audits etc. R&M surely suffered when they were against the wall pre-Chinese, but increasing larger amounts have gone into capital expenditure, as Percy has pointed out. The question is how much is to maintain BAU, and how much will increase efficiency, reduce costs, increase revenue etc. I'm unsure.

There are areas where there are just increased compliance costs meaning for capital expenditure - ie water use and discharge for example. Also going away from coal in some areas.

With 14 plants, always going to need a reasonable level of capital expenditure. The one area that might need to spend a bit more is cold storage......

Like just about all primary industries, staffing is a real issue. Alot of plants in smaller, rural towns with limited, often ageing workforces. SFF definitely become more proactive on recruitment and retention.

Logistics is hitting every export industry currently. Understand trying to put increased freight costs on to customers but likely to end up back on returns to suppliers. As mentioned previously, my thoughts are that would be a little better than their competitors with Kotahi and likely getting more space - but still difficult. Got a few months now with lesser production, but need to try to get inventory down to low-season levels.

[Sideshow Bob]

Plate to Pasture Farmer Conference 2021 - The Future Starts Here | Latest News | Silver Fern Farms (https://www.silverfernfarms.com/our-company/latest-news/farmer-conference-2021)

Conference in Wellingtown, open to suppliers and shareholders.

[Sideshow Bob]

Liquidity.Nearly 3% of the shares on issue were traded.

ps.No of trades 289,slightly more than the 278 PAZ number of trades.

Interestingly, about the same percentage of PAZ shares were traded, just under 3%. Although PAZ have fewer and larger shareholders.

At current levels and based on last years divvy/patronage reward, would be 13.3% return + preferential treatment.

[percy]

Interestingly, about the same percentage of PAZ shares were traded, just under 3%. Although PAZ have fewer and larger shareholders.

At current levels and based on last years divvy/patronage reward, would be 13.3% return + preferential treatment.

Yes a very good divie,[mine more than covered my surgeons' and hospital bills]..lol.
Not sure whether The Chairman's closing AGM comments caused "dry" shareholders not to buy more shares,causing the share price to weaken,and a temporary lack of liquidity However buying interest appears to have resumed.

[Sideshow Bob]

Back up to $1, with 40,000 through yesterday. Not much on the sell side, however buy side mainly at lower levels.

Edit - bit more fed on to the buy side at $1.10+.

[Sideshow Bob]

Shipping venture paying off (ruralnewsgroup.co.nz) (https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dairy-news/dairy-general-news/shipping-venture-paying-off)

[iceman]

Shipping venture paying off (ruralnewsgroup.co.nz) (https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dairy-news/dairy-general-news/shipping-venture-paying-off)

Thanks for sharing SB. Encouraging

[percy]

Thanks for sharing SB. Encouraging

Yes thanks Sideshow Bob.
Positive.

[iceman]

Good job SFF. From Business Desk:
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/primary-sector/silver-fern-farms-launching-carbon-zero-certified-beef?utm_source=Digest&utm_medium=email

[Sideshow Bob]

I like this comment:

“Alongside this, the global regulatory environment and community expectations are demanding that each of these areas are addressed by corporates and producers.” “There is only one direction of travel for our industry and Silver Fern Farms wants to be out the front leading,” Mr Limmer said

Media_Release_-_Silver_Fern_Farms_commits_to_its_course_for_a_sus tainable_future_FINAL.pdf (usx.co.nz) (https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2294/original/Media_Release_-_Silver_Fern_Farms_commits_to_its_course_for_a_sus tainable_future_FINAL.pdf?1625713538)

[kiora]

Keeping NZ afloat
"Who's eating New Zealand?"
"How much do they earn?
Dairy outstrips all our other food and beverage exports. Since 1990 it's earned $231bn. Sheep meat comes in second with $71bn, with beef third at $59bn."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/whoseatingnewzealand/446357/who-s-eating-new-zealand

[iceman]

Thanks for posting Kiora. Very interesting reading. I'm blown away by the amount of milk products going to Malaysia, Algeria & Venzuela !!

[Sideshow Bob]

50,000 through this morning at $1.10

Bounced back from the recent foray into the mid-80's.

[percy]

Total so far today is 63,000 traded at $1.10.
Those that bought at mid 80s are up over 29%..

[iceman]

Total so far today is 63,000 traded at $1.10.
Those that bought at mid 80s are up over 29%..

Sharesight tells me my purchases between mid May and late July last year have yielded 64% capital gain and 18.5% dividends. Still undervalued

[Sideshow Bob]

Sharesight tells me my purchases between mid May and late July last year have yielded 64% capital gain and 18.5% dividends. Still undervalued

I hadn't realised you could add into Sharesight (even thought updating isn't automatic).

62.45% capital gain and 13.9% dividend, which includes the few more recently bought.

[iceman]

Yes its a bit annoying that Sharesight doesn’t automatically update from USX. I cheat it by mocking up a 1 share purchase in 31 March (for return in the financial year) and then 2 x 1 share purchases that I alternatively update at the end of each week to make my “weekly report” they email through up to date

I also learned from one of Sharesights videos how to monitor rental property performance in Sharesight. A bit of manual work but I find it useful.

[DarkHorse]

Sharesight tells me my purchases between mid May and late July last year have yielded 64% capital gain and 18.5% dividends. Still undervalued Mmm, interesting - I use Sharesight but can't see how to load unlisted holdings - could you kindly enlighten me?

[DarkHorse]

Sharesight tells me my purchases between mid May and late July last year have yielded 64% capital gain and 18.5% dividends. Still undervalued I'd like to know how to use sharesight for usx too - do you have to use "Custom Investment"? Thanks!

[Sideshow Bob]

Mmm, interesting - I use Sharesight but can't see how to load unlisted holdings - could you kindly enlighten me?

When go to "add holding" it comes up with a box that enter code/name of company into.

On the top right hand side of this box it says: "Add a custom investment". Click that and just add the information, same as what would do for any other share with purchases, brokerage etc. I added under the USX code of SFF.

In this instance, it will show in your holdings as SFF.OTHER. It doesn't automatically pick up any price/value changes from USX, and have to add manually. But can click on SFF.OTHER, and on the right under "Instrument Details" you can add in price for a date, or manage pricing.

All reasonably intuitive.

[iceman]

“Mmm, interesting - I use Sharesight but can't see how to load unlisted holdings - could you kindly enlighten me?“

DarkHorse I see Sideshow Bob has answered and that’s how I do it as well.

[DarkHorse]

When go to "add holding" it comes up with a box that enter code/name of company into.

On the top right hand side of this box it says: "Add a custom investment". Click that and just add the information, same as what would do for any other share with purchases, brokerage etc. I added under the USX code of SFF.

In this instance, it will show in your holdings as SFF.OTHER. It doesn't automatically pick up any price/value changes from USX, and have to add manually. But can click on SFF.OTHER, and on the right under "Instrument Details" you can add in price for a date, or manage pricing.

All reasonably intuitive.

Thanks for that, very helpful!

[iceman]

Simon Limmer reports in his newsletter today that SFF is on track to achieve 24% increase from last year, in beef animal numbers.
Also announced a premium to beef suppliers.

I think we’re in for a stellar year, despite the very serious freight issues

[Sideshow Bob]

Simon Limmer reports in his newsletter today that SFF is on track to achieve 24% increase from last year, in beef animal numbers.
Also announced a premium to beef suppliers.

I think we’re in for a stellar year, despite the very serious freight issues

Nice one Iceman!

24% is huge. Beef underpins their profit and that should sort of increase will assist hugely.

Profitability on beef is why Alliance are trying to up their numbers…..don’t know how successfully or at what cost though…..

[percy]

Simon Limmer reports in his newsletter today that SFF is on track to achieve 24% increase from last year, in beef animal numbers.
Also announced a premium to beef suppliers.

I think we’re in for a stellar year, despite the very serious freight issues

The share price is "well positioned" to be rerated.

[Sideshow Bob]

The share price is "well positioned" to be rerated.

Seasonal business in terms of revenue and profitability but pity don’t have a half year result.

Still, an opportunity to add more on any weakness…..

[Sideshow Bob]

Still, an opportunity to add more on any weakness…..

Somebody wanted out today, down to 95c.

Looks like little disruption at this stage, at what is a quieter time of year - Meat processors temporarily reduce capacity after lockdown announced | Stuff.co.nz (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/126107866/meat-processors-temporarily-reduce-capacity-after-lockdown-announced)

[surfnturf]

I like the growth potential and prospects of SFF, always thought they were a private company until I found USX, hidden gem IMO.

[percy]

https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/EU9vpjjjtvZ763qUDJXaWFwg/Eab1j4qMeIolIWhw859g1g

[iceman]

https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/EU9vpjjjtvZ763qUDJXaWFwg/Eab1j4qMeIolIWhw859g1g

Looking good for us this year heading towards a juicy dividend in April.

Interesting to read about the restrictions on exports from Argentina. They've done this with soya & corn as well. Under the current Government they are heading for a Venzuelan style economic collapse. The peso is artificially controlled but despite that has fallen over 20% so far this year as can be seen here https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/currency
But this is the official rate, which exporters have to use for their sales and are then hit with a 30% tax on USD bought for imports such as machinery and all other supplies. A total theft.
The Blue Dollar (black market) which is the real market rate is now around double the official rate, 1 USD = AR$ 177 https://bluedollar.net/

[Sideshow Bob]

I remember going to Argentina in the early 2000's - they'd not long unpegged from the USD, and instead of being 1 to 1 they were 3 to 1.

As a backpacker, lived like a king, excellent steak and malbec every night.

Ahhh those are the days when you could (easily) travel.......

[iceman]

I remember going to Argentina in the early 2000's - they'd not long unpegged from the USD, and instead of being 1 to 1 they were 3 to 1.

As a backpacker, lived like a king, excellent steak and malbec every night.

Ahhh those are the days when you could (easily) travel.......

Yep. When I started working there in 2007 I used to get AR$ 3.5 for 1 USD. When I was in BA a couple of months ago, I got AR$ 180. A decent bottle of Malbec AR$ 350-450 :-)

[Sideshow Bob]

Yep. When I started working there in 2007 I used to get AR$ 3.5 for 1 USD. When I was in BA a couple of months ago, I got AR$ 180. A decent bottle of Malbec AR$ 350-450 :-)

The more you drink, the more you save!! :t_up:

[surfnturf]

In the 2019 Annual Report page 13, the net profit before tax is 35.1m and then the after tax number is 34.9m, giving a difference of only 0.2m, any reason why this is?

[percy]

In the 2019 Annual Report page 13, the net profit before tax is 35.1m and then the after tax number is 34.9m, giving a difference of only 0.2m, any reason why this is?

Quoted on USX are SFF [coop] which owns 50% of Silver Fern Farms Ltd.
The tax was paid by Silver Fern Farms Ltd.
The .2mil difference I do not know.

[GTM 3442]

The more you drink, the more you save!! :t_up:

I've been trying to drink myself rich for years with DGE Diageo in the UK, but it hasn't worked yet.

[iceman]

Good to see a steady climb again. Not far from the ATH back in May. Not unlikely we see more buying towards year end with some farmers wanting to make sure they have a sufficient amount of shares to get the full "Patronage Reward".
The reports from Simon Limmer indicate a very good year for SFF so on track for another great dividend :-)

[macduffy]

Grain-fed America keen on Silver Fern Farms' grass-fed beef"

Business Desk article today. Paywalled.

[iceman]

Grain-fed America keen on Silver Fern Farms' grass-fed beef"

Business Desk article today. Paywalled.

Thanks macduffy.
An interesting article, finishing of on this positive note (copied from BusinessDesk), bearing in mind beef is where SFF make most of their money.

"According to Silver Fern Farms, it is currently on track to process 24% more beef across its programmes in the 2020-21 season than in the prior two years. "

[percy]

Thanks macduffy.
An interesting article, finishing of on this positive note (copied from BusinessDesk), bearing in mind beef is where SFF make most of their money.

"According to Silver Fern Farms, it is currently on track to process 24% more beef across its programmes in the 2020-21 season than in the prior two years. "

24%..That is a huge increase.

[iceman]

24%..That is a huge increase.

Does that mean we are well positioned ?

[percy]

Does that mean we are we will positioned ?

LOL.Certainly does.

[Sideshow Bob]

LOL.Certainly does.

That beef number is amazing......!!

Looking forward, bobby calf processing seems like it will terminate at some stage - from an animal welfare/public perception. This has been a great boost for lamb plants over the years, at a time when sheep farms converted to dairy - giving plant numbers of calves when wouldn't ordinarily have many lambs going through -especially in the South Island. I think SFF would have a reasonable share of this - and also helps link in with dairy farmers and getting their cull stock.

On the flip side, if those calves all go through to veal or as beef cattle, then gives more product, and gain the benefit of fully grown cattle through beef plants.

Competition for land use isn't lamb vs beef vs dairy vs crop - its all vs carbon farming. Especially on that hill country.

[percy]

Competition for land use isn't lamb vs beef vs dairy vs crop - its all vs carbon farming. Especially on that hill country.

Charlie Munger had this to say about growing corn to turn into ethanol.Maybe he would say the same about carbon farming.?
On ethanol: "Ethanol is quite possibly the stupidest thing ever invented by rational people. The ultimate social safety net -- which is a very good idea, by the way -- is cheap food, and ethanol production is destroying this. It was a monstrously stupid idea like I haven't seen before."

[Sideshow Bob]

Charlie Munger had this to say about growing corn to turn into ethanol.Maybe he would say the same about carbon farming.?
On ethanol: "Ethanol is quite possibly the stupidest thing ever invented by rational people. The ultimate social safety net -- which is a very good idea, by the way -- is cheap food, and ethanol production is destroying this. It was a monstrously stupid idea like I haven't seen before."

Great quote!

I can't see where we are heading to - moving away from producing food in a natural, free range environment into planting non-native trees, where many of them will never be cut down. Just to meet a carbon obligation. The world population is going to get bigger, so where is the food going to come from? Especially when environmental pressure on use of pesticides, fertilisers and other chemicals used in intensive practices. We tie ourselves in knots, with countries like China continuing on almost regardless, and other countries transition into more consumption and 1st world living.

Crossing over with PAZ and Ziwi - then WTF are all these pets going to eat?

Actually I'm extending the vege garden at home.....bit more lettuce for when the apocalypse hits......

[DarkHorse]

Charlie Munger had this to say about growing corn to turn into ethanol.Maybe he would say the same about carbon farming.?
On ethanol: "Ethanol is quite possibly the stupidest thing ever invented by rational people. The ultimate social safety net -- which is a very good idea, by the way -- is cheap food, and ethanol production is destroying this. It was a monstrously stupid idea like I haven't seen before."
Absolutely. Let them eat cake!

[kiora]

"Crossing over with PAZ and Ziwi - then WTF are all these pets going to eat?"

Possum & venison?

[Sideshow Bob]

"Crossing over with PAZ and Ziwi - then WTF are all these pets going to eat?"

Possum & venison?

Pine Needles!! :t_down:

[kiora]

Pine Needles!! :t_down:

+ magic mushrooms

[Sideshow Bob]

+ magic mushrooms

Hahaha! + the local tinnie house's cash crop......

[GTM 3442]

Prof. Keith (always worth a read) has a view on where it may all go, and what it may mean once New Zealand gets there.

As far as I can tell, the logical conclusion is that for carbon "units" to meaningfully affect emitter behavior and thus emissions volume, the price of carbon units must rise to a point where the sheep (both meat and wool) and beef industries no longer exist.

And with them go billions of dollars worth of export earnings, to be replaced by some unknown value of dollars (in cash) being exported to offshore carbon unit holders.

Who would have ever thought of money as an export commodity, eh?

https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2021/09/22/the-ets-is-both-a-goldmine-and-a-minefield/

Discl: Alarmed, but backing both horses by hanging onto both the SFF shares and the carbon units

[Sideshow Bob]

Prof. Keith (always worth a read) has a view on where it may all go, and what it may mean once New Zealand gets there.

As far as I can tell, the logical conclusion is that for carbon "units" to meaningfully affect emitter behavior and thus emissions volume, the price of carbon units must rise to a point where the sheep (both meat and wool) and beef industries no longer exist.

And with them go billions of dollars worth of export earnings, to be replaced by some unknown value of dollars (in cash) being exported to offshore carbon unit holders.

Who would have ever thought of money as an export commodity, eh?

https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2021/09/22/the-ets-is-both-a-goldmine-and-a-minefield/

Discl: Alarmed, but backing both horses by hanging onto both the SFF shares and the carbon units

NZ sheep and beef exports combined are about 900,000MT - not including domestic consumption.

So if for ease of calculation, the red meat component of a meal was 100g then it is 9,000,000,000 meals with NZ beef and lamb as the protein component!

The worlds population is getting bigger - if it continues with this “carbon farming” then WTF are we all going to eat…..??

Personally I just can’t see where it is all heading to. Only way (I see) to really fix the carbon issue is less people!! You also can’t say to developing countries they can’t consume in the same way as 1st world countries. Also can’t tell the likes of Brazil to stop cutting down the Amazon, as the likes of Europe, USA etc cleared their forest a few hundreds years before.

Alternative proteins also need resources to produce and while carbon footprint might be less than red meat, they also use a lot of water, fertilisers and other inputs.

DISC - bought a few CO2 for my daughter. But in the meantime enjoying the 50%+ return on SFF to date.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/beef/view/sff-to-cease-third-party-headage-payments

[kiora]

Ouch .nasty
"More countries have joined China in banning imports of Brazilian beef following the discovery of two cases of mad cow disease.

The ABC reports that Russia, Indonesia, Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia have all joined China in ban either in total, from infected states or certain processing plants."
https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/beef/view/more-countries-ban-brazil-meat-imports

[Sideshow Bob]

Solid old volume gone through today at $1.09-$1.10.

293k traded, and to put in context, in the last 12 months only 2.9 million have been traded - 10% of the last years turnover in a day? Bulk of these in one hit? Maybe a new top 10 shareholder?? (Only need >268k shares).

Is Percy getting more "well positioned"?? Another good year in the offing??

[percy]

Solid old volume gone through today at $1.09-$1.10.

293k traded, and to put in context, in the last 12 months only 2.9 million have been traded - 10% of the last years turnover in a day? Bulk of these in one hit? Maybe a new top 10 shareholder?? (Only need >268k shares).

Is Percy getting more "well positioned"?? Another good year in the offing??

No not me at this stage.Already "well positioned". May buy a few more Feb/Mar next year just before their result announcement,in time for the divie.
Perhaps it is Iceman.?
Who ever it is I think they are buying very well.

[iceman]

No not me at this stage.Already "well positioned". May buy a few more Feb/Mar next year just before their result announcement,in time for the divie.
Perhaps it is Iceman.?
Who ever it is I think they are buying very well.

Great turnover indeed. I've not bought any of this today. Been busy catching snapper & kingfish :-)

[Sideshow Bob]

Great turnover indeed. I've not bought any of this today. Been busy catching snapper & kingfish :-)

Nice! :t_up:

Will be interesting to see if can push higher than $1.10.

The graph on USX site doesn't work that well, but I am thinking $1.10 would be an all-time high??

[percy]

Nice! :t_up:

Will be interesting to see if can push higher than $1.10.

The graph on USX site doesn't work that well, but I am thinking $1.10 would be an all-time high??

I think you are right $1.10 is the all time high.Been there before.
Iceman are you having a "busman's holiday".?.Snapper & Kingfish.
Thought you would be living on delicious Silver Fern Farms meat patties.!..lol

[iceman]

I think you are right $1.10 is the all time high.Been there before.
Iceman are you having a "busman's holiday".?.Snapper & Kingfish.
Thought you would be living on delicious Silver Fern Farms meat patties.!..lol

Great day out on the water after lots of wind last couple of weeks.

You’re right it’s an all time high, reached a few months ago as well. I expect we will see an upward pressure in the last quarter of the year as farmers top up their holdings like happened last year to ensure maximum return from this great year we’re having 😀

[percy]

Growth: NZ Beef exports, up 39 per cent to $299m year on year.
Exports to the top three beef markets all increased, with China up 89 per cent to $117m, the United States by
31 per cent to $102m and Japan by 31 per cent to $15 million.
Sirma Karapeeva, MIA chief executive, said volumes of beef exported during August were also historically high.
“A number of factors are contributing to tight global beef supplies. This includes herd rebuilding in Australia
and export restrictions in Argentina. New Zealand exported a total of 35,327 tonnes during August, which is 71
per cent higher than the average beef export volume for the month over the last 30 years. .
In early September, China halted imports of Brazilian beef, due to detections of atypical BSE in two cattle in
Brazil. This did not affect the August imports but it may have an impact on trade over the next few months.
Brazil is the largest beef exporter to China and our understanding is that the situation is not fully resolved yet."
.

[percy]

Just one positive announcement,after another.I am getting used to them..lol
https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2383/original/Silver_Fern_Farms_to_halve_coal_use.pdf?1633037734

[Sideshow Bob]

Simon says they are ‘well positioned’!!

https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/red-meat/meat-firm-expecting-another-solid-profit

[Mr Slothbear]

SFF lifting minimum pay

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/126725229/silver-fern-farms-lifts-minimum-pay-to-attract-and-retain-staff

[Sideshow Bob]

SFF lifting minimum pay

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/126725229/silver-fern-farms-lifts-minimum-pay-to-attract-and-retain-staff

Thanks for sharing. Alliance also saying today in their supplier presentations that they are facing pressure on wages also.

[Sideshow Bob]

Main competitor expecting lift in trading profit.

Alliance to announce rise in trading profit | Otago Daily Times Online News (odt.co.nz) (https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/red-meat/alliance-announce-rise-trading-profit)

[iceman]

Main competitor expecting lift in trading profit.

Alliance to announce rise in trading profit | Otago Daily Times Online News (odt.co.nz) (https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/red-meat/alliance-announce-rise-trading-profit)

Thanks for sharing this SB. I heard a rural report on radio yesterday saying all mutton is now being taken by China and prices are 5-6x higher than the traditional Pacific Island market for mutton.
The freighting availability and price continuous to be a major issue and will no doubt be a serious issue for a few years yet. But I heard the Fonterra CEO say that the Kotahi partnership is definitely helping Fonterra & SFF (and NZ exporters in general)

[Sideshow Bob]

Thanks for sharing this SB. I heard a rural report on radio yesterday saying all mutton is now being taken by China and prices are 5-6x higher than the traditional Pacific Island market for mutton.
The freighting availability and price continuous to be a major issue and will no doubt be a serious issue for a few years yet. But I heard the Fonterra CEO say that the Kotahi partnership is definitely helping Fonterra & SFF (and NZ exporters in general)

Mutton is forecast to be $5.70 - $6.80 for the coming months, based on Chinese demand. Great money for an old ewe!

Same with lamb, flaps now into China where in the past use to go to the Pacific Islands or PNG at a couple of bucks - so the 5-6x is about right. About 10% of the carcase. Now taking more forequarters and also other cuts such as heavy legs. Potential for a correction in the Chinese market though....

Go back further though and the skin and the pelt was worth more than the meat!! Now these are practically worthless.

Will be interesting to see stock/inventory and compare against last year (at end of FY). Alliance saying they have more stock than had anticipated.

[stoploss]

Mutton is forecast to be $5.70 - $6.80 for the coming months, based on Chinese demand. Great money for an old ewe!

Same with lamb, flaps now into China where in the past use to go to the Pacific Islands or PNG at a couple of bucks - so the 5-6x is about right. About 10% of the carcase. Now taking more forequarters and also other cuts such as heavy legs. Potential for a correction in the Chinese market though....

Go back further though and the skin and the pelt was worth more than the meat!! Now these are practically worthless.

Will be interesting to see stock/inventory and compare against last year (at end of FY). Alliance saying they have more stock than had anticipated.

I read an article that they use those "lamb flaps " in a hot pot dish in some chain of restaurants over there . Very big demand, have to wonder what they have substituted for this in the Islands ......

[Sideshow Bob]

Hopefully we start to see some share price strength towards the end of the year, especially as farmers look to share up - think they need to be holding at 31/12 to get the supplier rebate. All info is pointing that its been another good year, competitors (Blue Skies, Alliance) indicate stronger profitability, and markets are strong. Only paid out a small portion of the last 2 years profits as dividends, so has plenty of cash to reinvest or distribute.

Any hiccups in China with either the market or domestically is a risk. Prices are high, so always a chance of a correction, epecially when China takes 40-50% of our red meat exports. Global logistics are also a risk - I think they are better placed than most exporters with Kotahi, and getting product away, but cost is another matter.

Has been at that $1.10 level a few times, but would be good to see it bust through that. Otherwise, another good divvy in prospect.....

[iceman]

Hopefully we start to see some share price strength towards the end of the year, especially as farmers look to share up - think they need to be holding at 31/12 to get the supplier rebate. All info is pointing that its been another good year, competitors (Blue Skies, Alliance) indicate stronger profitability, and markets are strong. Only paid out a small portion of the last 2 years profits as dividends, so has plenty of cash to reinvest or distribute.

Any hiccups in China with either the market or domestically is a risk. Prices are high, so always a chance of a correction, epecially when China takes 40-50% of our red meat exports. Global logistics are also a risk - I think they are better placed than most exporters with Kotahi, and getting product away, but cost is another matter.

Has been at that $1.10 level a few times, but would be good to see it bust through that. Otherwise, another good divvy in prospect.....

Yes I expect we will see SP firm up on slightly better volume pre-Christmas. All we are hearing from SFF and other in the industry, as you point out, indicates a bumper profit this year. Given they replenished the coffers last year and ripped into the share registry clean up, I am confident we will see a 7c fully imputed divie in April :t_up:

[Sideshow Bob]

Yes I expect we will see SP firm up on slightly better volume pre-Christmas. All we are hearing from SFF and other in the industry, as you point out, indicates a bumper profit this year. Given they replenished the coffers last year and ripped into the share registry clean up, I am confident we will see a 7c fully imputed divie in April :t_up:

Company paid out $26.2m fully imputed last year - so $13.1m to the Coop. Dividend and patronage reward was $8.1m. Company kept the remaining $39.2m of NPAT.

Understand the need for the Coop to build their reserves, and a buffer for any rainy days ahead. Spent a bit on redeeming those shares, and should be good for remaining shareholders, and for NTA/EPS etc.

Would think potential for a stronger payout ratio and larger dividend. 7c equates to circa $7m - sure they can afford at least that! :blush:

[percy]

Sideshow Bob and Iceman.
Stop it please guys, you are getting me over excited.........................lol.

[iceman]

Sideshow Bob and Iceman.
Stop it please guys, you are getting me over excited.........................lol.

Sorry about that. I'm just dreaming that we will get no less than 7c fully imputed as it would mean I've got 1/3 of my money back in dividends (& imputation credits) in just over 2 years, in addition to the 50% capital gain.
Nothing like a boring old meat company eh !

[percy]

Sorry about that. I'm just dreaming that we will get no less than 7c fully imputed as it would mean I've got 1/3 of my money back in dividends (& imputation credits) in just over 2 years, in addition to the 50% capital gain.
Nothing like a boring old meat company eh !

An incredible "boring old meat company".
Been very kind to us so far. and looking sound for the future.

[percy]

The good news continues.
New Zealand red meat exports soar by 28 per cent for third quarter
Beef exports top 100,000 tonnes in third quarter for first time
New Zealand’s red meat exports rose 28 per cent to $2.2 billion for the third quarter
compared to the previous year, according to an analysis by the Meat Industry Association
(MIA) .
Th e increase continued the trend of strong growth for the red meat sector in recent months
with September exports alone reaching $64 2 million.
The major markets for the third quarter of the calendar year were China, with exports up 57
per cent to $830m, the United States, up 3 5 per cent to $542m, and Japan, increasing 61 per
cent to $109 m.

[Sideshow Bob]

Beyond Meat struggling.....

Beyond Meat (BYND) Q3 2021 earnings miss (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/beyond-meat-bynd-q3-2021-earnings.html)

[Sideshow Bob]

Have heard of a few issues with China importation. Chinese govt still pursuing Covid elimination, and still on that frozen food is a risk. Dalian is apparently stopping imports of frozen or something similar. Much of NZ's lamb exports to China go through Dalian. Looks like different provinces have applied Govt mandates differently and Liaoning have been the toughest.

Could be a bit of a circuit breaker for a reset of market levels, which have been pretty lofty.

Hugh risk for plants/companies with their Chinese listing is they have a case of Covid at plant. Will then get delisted for China, and especially for lamb would be wholly uncompetitive without this. Might as well shut up shop. Seems like MPI are not really proactive in the situation either.

Still not really into the main season yet, but would be a concern if continues or escalates.

[iceman]

Have heard of a few issues with China importation. Chinese govt still pursuing Covid elimination, and still on that frozen food is a risk. Dalian is apparently stopping imports of frozen or something similar. Much of NZ's lamb exports to China go through Dalian. Looks like different provinces have applied Govt mandates differently and Liaoning have been the toughest.

Could be a bit of a circuit breaker for a reset of market levels, which have been pretty lofty.

Hugh risk for plants/companies with their Chinese listing is they have a case of Covid at plant. Will then get delisted for China, and especially for lamb would be wholly uncompetitive without this. Might as well shut up shop. Seems like MPI are not really proactive in the situation either.

Still not really into the main season yet, but would be a concern if continues or escalates.

Thanks SB. Interesting. China is indeed very strict. I know with fish, every crew member needs to have a negative test at arrival in port before product destined for China can be loaded into containers. Even after 40-60 days at sea. 1 positive case and China accepts no product from that ship.

[Sideshow Bob]

Plenty of trades the last week or so at $1.10, but (a relatively) good number through today and looks like sellers have been cleaned out. Only 56 on offer at $1.10.....

Will we see it finally push through $1.10 soon, and an ATH????

[Sideshow Bob]

Now 51,000 on offer at $1.10. :confused:

[Sideshow Bob]

https://farmersweekly.co.nz/s/fw-article/alliance-reports-53-increase-in-profit-MC42TKBZV465C6TGGZ2COEKF5FSE

Bodes well for SFF, especially given relative performance over recent years.

[iceman]

Deleted ..............

[percy]

https://farmersweekly.co.nz/s/fw-article/alliance-reports-53-increase-in-profit-MC42TKBZV465C6TGGZ2COEKF5FSE

Bodes well for SFF, especially given relative performance over recent years.

Certainly does,thanks for posting.
.

[Sideshow Bob]

Certainly does,thanks for posting.
.

With strong markets, large processing share of the beef market and likely better logistics with Kotahi, then would definitely expect another strong result, with the year ending 31/12.

Hopefully we see buying support from farmers (and others) leading up until Christmas - returns for farmers would have been fantastic over the last couple of years once included the supplier premium (plus of course capital growth and ordinary dividends).

Potentially it is the 3rd year of excellent profits, and still trading at a PE of under 3.5.

Would mean they essentially earned their market cap in the last 3 years........!!! And a good chunk of the cash has stayed in the business.....

[percy]

With strong markets, large processing share of the beef market and likely better logistics with Kotahi, then would definitely expect another strong result, with the year ending 31/12.

Hopefully we see buying support from farmers (and others) leading up until Christmas - returns for farmers would have been fantastic over the last couple of years once included the supplier premium (plus of course capital growth and ordinary dividends).

Potentially it is the 3rd year of excellent profits, and still trading at a PE of under 3.5.

Would mean they essentially earned their market cap in the last 3 years........!!! And a good chunk of the cash has stayed in the business.....

Just keep rolling out your posts..
Love them...lol.

[iceman]

The prices and general market conditions seem pretty favourable in Simon Limmer's newsletter this week. Been trying to post a link to it but something goes funny with it !
But basically both beef & lamb prices are up on the good prices last year, quite significantly. :-)

[percy]

https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/x1MfzrmaHYspQ0eX6ji1Zg/O763f4aZgn763tf0VSs8UXa0kg

[Sideshow Bob]

Farmers Weekly November 29 2021 by Farmers Weekly NZ - Issuu (https://issuu.com/farmersweeklynz/docs/fw_29-11_issuu)

Page 27 - Sword hangs over strong markets

[iceman]

Farmers Weekly November 29 2021 by Farmers Weekly NZ - Issuu (https://issuu.com/farmersweeklynz/docs/fw_29-11_issuu)

Page 27 - Sword hangs over strong markets

Thanks SB. Interesting reading

[Monarch]

This seems too good to be true almost. Does anyone have any theories as to why the price is so low relative to earnings? Is it just because it is on the USX?
Additionally, with the PE so low where is all the cash going that the dividend yield is only ~6%?

[Sideshow Bob]

This seems too good to be true almost. Does anyone have any theories as to why the price is so low relative to earnings? Is it just because it is on the USX?
Additionally, with the PE so low where is all the cash going that the dividend yield is only ~6%?

I’ll have 1st crack….

The structure of the company is probably a major part of it. You are actually buying shares in the Coop, which investment or asset is 50% of SIlver Fern Farms Ltd. The other 50% is owned by Shanghai Maling, part of Bright Food that also owns a large chunk of Synlait. Shares have been on the USX well before it sold the 50% to BF. The Coop has half the board of SFF Ltd.

Originally the Coop was $1 in, $1 out so holders never got any value from the capital growth of the company. Way back in time, shareholders only had a maximum of 10,000 shares, so $10k - and the small farmers had the same amount as the large corporate farmers.

Primarily being listed on the USX it is more for trading of shares in the Coop and allow the ‘market’ to decide the value. Still illiquid and less than 3m shares traded in the last 12 months - so only 3% of the company…...

Some of the profit is paid out as dividend per share, and there is also a patronage reward paid out to shareholders who supplied livestock. So last year if you supplied livestock, you got 11.2c per share!! Livestock supply is the life blood of the business, but even at todays price, farmer shareholders get competitive livestock price and based on last FY Divvy, 10% return on your share money. They do want to encourage more farmers to take up shares and then for that livestock supply to become a little more "sticky". Consistent profits and patronage rewards will again help this and I see as a little as a self-perpetuating circle....

There has been a little noise about ‘dry’or non-supplying shareholders and whether they might be limited in number or similar. Nothing seems likely in the short-term - just need to be aware. The dividend policy previously hasn't been well defined and how they treat supplying holders and dry holders.

Historically the company has performed fairly averagely (to be kind) with debt being a large factor in this, particularly after protracted/agressive/unwelcomed takeover of Richmond in the early 2000's that ended up costing them too much and also lost a decent amount of farmer supply from it. With the 50% sale to Shanghai Maling, the business became free of any long-term debt - which really was a noose weighing it down.

The company has started to perform well in recent years. The last couple of years they’ve made $65-70m and what I can see very likely to make another strong profit this year. This is from comments made so far by the company, but also looking at other meat companies recent announcements like Blue Sky (USX) and Alliance (Farmer Coop), that have had an increase in earnings this year compared to last. From my perspective, SFF just seem to be doing their thing, well run and in a reasonably good space currently.

Much of the profit has been retained in the company. FY2020 they paid out $26m of $65m, so $13m of the total dividend went to the Coop. Circa 100m shares/13cps, so paid some out, paid out the patronage reward and kept some.

The profit history has probably been a part of it, but 3 very good years in a row is starting to put some serious runs on the board.

I understand they do want to make the Coop self-sustaining financially and not reliant on divvies from SFF Ltd. So some of the funds have been retained. They’ve also been cleaning up the share register with small/lost shareholding’s - which is good for remaining holders.

Last year, they delayed the divvy due to Covid like many companies, and then would have been reasonably conservative. This year divvy was up slightly.

They don’t report a half-year, or announce any earnings forecast etc, which I think doesn’t help the price or awareness of the company as an investment.

Not sure how much money is kept within the business as cash or been spent on capital works etc. Many of the plants suffered through lack of investment, with just necessary R&M going back in time. So a bit of a catch-up over the last few years. Not sure what capital spend they have planned for the future.

There isn't alot of "growth" out there in terms of plants/livestock numbers, without acquistion or the like, and don't think they have an apetite for that, especially with the history, and would likely face regulatory issues. Any growth will likely come out of extracting value of what they have - rather than just more. The company in recent years has focused on their brand and meat - and had JV's in the likes of rendering. So expect them to push more into a few of these areas.

At some stage they may start to spit out more cash, and the more consistency in profits, the more the market will notice. Pretty easy to work out the profit and earnings per share - $65m 50% to Coop, $32.5m, 100m shares, about 32c eps.

When look at the balance sheet, can probably question the value of an old meat processing plant. But currently so undervalued on this also - about $3.20 per share for $1.10.

Most of the posters bought in the $0.60’s and enjoyed about $0.11 in fully imputed divvies and seen holdings appreciate by about 50%.

The company is facing some challenges (like many NZ primary industries) - Covid, labour, carbon farming, move away from meat for environmental reasons, shipping/logistics, emmissions, water treatment etc etc.

However I think there is more upside from here. It is illiquid, and (I think) $1.10 is a all-time-high but the fundamentals remain compelling, there is a big safety margin and one for a long-term hold.

[iceman]

Sums it up nicely SB. This one certainly has the potential to be a good dividend payer with the last couple of years having set the Co up well financially, free of debt with money in the bank. Very much undervalued and a great long term hold in my view

Discl: a fairly large holding

[percy]

Sums it up nicely SB. This one certainly has the potential to be a good dividend payer with the last couple of years having set the Co up well financially, free of debt with money in the bank. Very much undervalued and a great king term hold in my view

Discl: a fairly large holding

I agree with Iceman.An excellent assessment Sideshow Bob,and thank you for posting it.
I too have a large holding.

[Sideshow Bob]

I've added a few comments earlier today, and also added a comment just now dividend policy.

[Sideshow Bob]

Looks like shipping issues are going to be to the fore again through this summer/autumn, and could be more challenging the last season. More expensive for sure!!

Will be interesting to see stock levels at YE compared to last year. I think they will still see alot of disruption with services, container supply, port calls etc - but have the feeling that they will be better placed than most with Kotahi. Alot of companies can't get space on Maersk - so expect will be going Kotahi's way, and a good portion to their shareholders.

Alot of industries will be hard hit and difficult times when the lack of options/availability to export.

[Sideshow Bob]

$1.10 cleaned out this morning. Been around this level for quite a while, and think this is an ATH.

Currently next offer is $1.15.......

Maybe Monarch is getting on board?? :p

[percy]

Beef + Lamb New Zealand and Silver Fern Farms Collaboration Increases Sales in U.S. Market

Beef + Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ) and Silver Fern Farms are celebrating another year of successful joint marketing efforts in the United States. The partnership, which included a series of seasonal marketing campaigns, outdoor advertisements and creative brand programs, resulted in significant sales growth and increased awareness.



American appetite for grass-fed sustainably raised New Zealand beef and lamb is growing. Lamb and beef exports to the US have lifted by 41% and 5% respectively compared to the 2019-2020 season, with chilled beef lifting by 62%. To build on the momentum in the U.S., B+LNZ and Silver Fern farms crafted several campaigns designed to capture the hearts and appetite of ‘Conscious Foodie’ consumers.



Just last month, the organisations wrapped a three-week joint campaign designed to promote New Zealand grass-fed beef via the Silver Fern Farms direct-to-consumer e-commerce platform. Promotional tactics included curated 100% Grass-Fed New Zealand beef bundles, a product offer, paid digital media, social media, email marketing and an online influencer campaign. As a result of the collaborative campaign, Silver Fern Farms saw a 247% increase in website traffic, a 291% increase in beef products sold and a 254% increase in beef revenue.

[iceman]

Beef + Lamb New Zealand and Silver Fern Farms Collaboration Increases Sales in U.S. Market

Beef + Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ) and Silver Fern Farms are celebrating another year of successful joint marketing efforts in the United States. The partnership, which included a series of seasonal marketing campaigns, outdoor advertisements and creative brand programs, resulted in significant sales growth and increased awareness.



American appetite for grass-fed sustainably raised New Zealand beef and lamb is growing. Lamb and beef exports to the US have lifted by 41% and 5% respectively compared to the 2019-2020 season, with chilled beef lifting by 62%. To build on the momentum in the U.S., B+LNZ and Silver Fern farms crafted several campaigns designed to capture the hearts and appetite of ‘Conscious Foodie’ consumers.



Just last month, the organisations wrapped a three-week joint campaign designed to promote New Zealand grass-fed beef via the Silver Fern Farms direct-to-consumer e-commerce platform. Promotional tactics included curated 100% Grass-Fed New Zealand beef bundles, a product offer, paid digital media, social media, email marketing and an online influencer campaign. As a result of the collaborative campaign, Silver Fern Farms saw a 247% increase in website traffic, a 291% increase in beef products sold and a 254% increase in beef revenue.

Great to see such spectacular growth in the US. We need more of this to reduce the heavy reliance on China somewhat. Our dividend forecast now all but guaranteed 😀

[Sideshow Bob]

$1.10 cleaned out this morning. Been around this level for quite a while, and think this is an ATH.

Currently next offer is $1.15.......

Maybe Monarch is getting on board?? :p

17,000 cleaned out at $1.15. :t_up:

Next offer $1.18! :cool:

All-time-high (I think!) :laugh:

[Sideshow Bob]

17,000 cleaned out at $1.15. :t_up:

Next offer $1.18! :cool:

All-time-high (I think!) :laugh:

Bid now at $1.15. Suppliers can buy now and get the divvy and patronage reward in early next year.

[iceman]

Bid now at $1.15. Suppliers can buy now and get the divvy and patronage reward in early next year.

I know this one is exciting and very rewarding to hold, just make sure you don't get too excited about the upcoming huge dividend and the potential rerating upwards in SP :)
I suggest a daily dose of Aiora Vascular & Vision to keep the bloodflow going strong :t_up:

[percy]

I know this one is exciting and very rewarding to hold, just make sure you don't get too excited about the upcoming huge dividend and the potential rerating upwards in SP :)
I suggest a daily dose of Aiora Vascular & Vision to keep the bloodflow going strong :t_up:

I may need to double the dose of my blood pressure pills,as my bloodflow is in overdrive,??...lol

[iceman]

From Simon Limmer's newsletter today, full of good news, including this little gem :-)


From China:
The Best Restaurant Awards was held in Shanghai lastweek.The Best Restaurant Awards Ceremony brings together a group of discerning Chinese gourmet consumers and judges.There were over 15 restaurant
and special awards presented for ingredients,brands and chefs with Silver Fern Farms Reserve Beef presented with the“Ingredient of the Year”award,in recognition of its premium quality.
We are honoured that our Reserve Beef has been recognised as the ingredient of the year.This affirms the quality of our products and indicates their growth potential in the Chinese high-end food service industry.Our Reserve Beef has been in the Chinese market since 2014 through high-end food service channels and we are building a strong reputation with discerning Chinese customers.

[Sideshow Bob]

Down to only 144 available at $1.18

Quite a large volume at $1.20 offer. About 170k.

If a supplier, then buying now for a likely 10% cash back in April....

[percy]

Down to only 144 available at $1.18

Quite a large volume at $1.20 offer. About 170k.

If a supplier, then buying now for a likely 10% cash back in April....

But wait .......there's more......lol.
50,056 traded at $1.20....

[Sideshow Bob]

But wait .......there's more......lol.
50,056 traded at $1.20....

Another ATH! :t_up:

I was wonder if that was you Percy getting even more "well positioned" :cool: (just joking)

Iceman will be happy when he gets back on line sometime.

[percy]

Another ATH! :t_up:

I was wonder if that was you Percy getting even more "well positioned" :cool: (just joking)

Iceman will be happy when he gets back on line sometime.

No not me.
Last purchase was at $1.06 on 23rd November getting the wife "better positioned."
I off course remain "well positioned".
Looking forward to Iceman's comments.

[Sideshow Bob]

Labour shortage; challenging processing season ahead | Otago Daily Times Online News (odt.co.nz) (https://www.odt.co.nz/business/labour-shortage-challenging-processing-season-ahead)

Silver Fern Farms — which is about 550 workers short across its network — says this peak season will be one of its most challenging to date.
While strong demand was generating healthy farm gate pricing, risks included logistics challenges, Covid-19 and labour shortages which threatened to unsettle that, general manager supply chain Dan Boulton said.
Some farmers have raised concerns about difficulties getting enough space for lamb weaning drafts and citing the potential flow-on effects from that.
Mr Boulton said processors and industry bodies have been signalling sector labour shortages in advance to suppliers to help avoid disappointment.
"Labour shortages are impacting right now and South Island lamb suppliers in particular will need to plan for this. Wait times for South Island lamb processing will likely to be 10-15% worse than last season and we expect these will continue through until March 2022.
"We strongly recommend suppliers get in touch with their livestock rep early to plan their bookings in advance," he said.
Accessing skills labour in the processing sector was becoming more difficult each year and this season had not been helped by low unemployment levels and stringent immigration rules, Mr Boulton said.
The company had various initiatives under way to help address the labour shortages, including raising its minimum productive rate by 10%.
Alliance Group general manager livestock and shareholder services Danny Hailes said livestock flow and processing volumes needed to be carefully balanced with the ability to ship products to global markets and Alliance was working hard to minimise the impact on farmers.
It would bring on additional processing capacity across its plant network over the coming weeks, however, like all companies in the sector, it was constrained by labour shortages and the global supply chain issues, Mr Hailes said.
The fifth chain was coming on at its Lorneville plant in Southland and the company was recruiting for the sixth chain, but that was subject to labour availability.
To avoid putting undue pressure on cool stores and shipping, Alliance was only taking livestock from shareholders. It was also asking farmers to keep in touch with their livestock representative and encouraging suppliers who were not shareholders to become shareholders, he said.
ANZ’s latest Agri-Focus report said processing new-season lambs was getting under way but it had been a slow start to the season. Poor growing conditions and low pasture covers going into winter resulted in a challenging spring in many regions. The surplus of pasture arrived a little later than normal and that had kept lamb growth rates in check.

[percy]

New Zealand red meat exports increase by 27 per cent



The value of New Zealand’s red meat sector exports reached $693 million during October, a 27 per cent increase year-on-year, according to an analysis by the Meat Industry Association (MIA).



Sheepmeat was a standout performer with the value increasing by 25 per cent to $309m. The major sheepmeat markets by value were China, up 25 per cent to $131m, the United States, up 54 per cent to $46m, and the Netherlands, up 94 per cent to $29m.



Sirma Karapeeva, chief executive of MIA, said a mixture of supply constraints and good demand in key markets had contributed to the high sheepmeat prices. These factors included Brexit-related issues and Australia rebuilding its sheep flock.



“The average Free on Board* (FOB) value for sheepmeat exports for the quarter was $12.52/kg,” said Ms Karapeeva.



“This was a record level and the first time that the average monthly FOB value has been above $12/kg.



“Value growth in our key global markets was across the board, with beef up 28 per cent to $231m and co-products increasing by 30 per cent to $153m.”



Overall, the value of China’s imports of New Zealand red meat was up 34 per cent to $262m, the United States by 47 per cent to $138m, Japan by 29 per cent to $31m and the Netherlands by 76 per cent to $30m.



UK sheepmeat exports to the EU have been affected by Brexit, said Ms Karapeeva.



“Most of the United Kingdom’s sheepmeat exports - around 90 per cent - normally go to the 27 European Union countries but its exports to that market are down 24 per cent so far this year.”

*Free on board – the quoted price for the goods delivered to the ship for shipment

ENDS

[iceman]

Thanks SB & percy. Have been catching up and very pleasing to see a continued steady upwards push on SP as expected by year end with suppliers topping up their holdings. Sharesight telling me total return in this financial year is 43% so far, following on from similar growth in the previous one.
The demand and prices have been great and continue to be so but serious issues with freighting & staffing affecting the industry. SFF well placed with the Kotahi shipping partnership which should see decent reliability of shipping & container availability but prices seriously inflated.

In the long term, hopefully the result in this industry from these serious labour shortages (as well as other primary industries such as fishing and horticulture), will be much more automation.
Meanwhile, we just have to enjoy the ride and the huge dividends in this still seriously undervalued stock. It beggars belief the SP does not start with a 2.

My biggest concern is that if the SP continues on a bit further, this holding will reach 30% of mine & wife's combined portfolios. But on second thought, that doesn't worry me at all :-)

[Sideshow Bob]

Farmers Weekly NZ December 13 2021 by Farmers Weekly NZ - Issuu (https://issuu.com/farmersweeklynz/docs/fw_13-12-21)

Page 27.

Opinion piece looking at Alliance's result, and prospects for the wider industry profitability. Saying good returns from Lamb Co USA, in which Alliance own just over 50% , with Anzco and SFF the balance. The US operation has had an outstanding year from what I understand - but like alot of markets starting to come under price pressure going into 2022. So any divvy will show up in SFF's result, just not as meaningful as to Alliance, as SFF have about half the shareholding and SFF circa 50% bigger turnover than Alliance.

But this is the bit I like: :)

13319

[Sideshow Bob]

The buyer of 60,000 at $1.16 just raised his bid to $1.18.

Perhaps trying to get in before the end of the year and get the patronage reward.....

[Sideshow Bob]

The buyer of 60,000 at $1.16 just raised his bid to $1.18.

Perhaps trying to get in before the end of the year and get the patronage reward.....

Now upped to $1.19.....

Plenty on at $1.20 (relatively speaking)

[percy]

Now upped to $1.19.....

Plenty on at $1.20 (relatively speaking)

Great fun to watch.
Quess the buyer is trying to tempt a seller further down the sell side to jump the que.?

[Sideshow Bob]

Toitū Envirocare celebrates sustainable business | Stuff.co.nz (https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/127201316/toit-envirocare-celebrates-sustainable-business)

4. Toitū Brighter Future Award for Climate Action in the >50,000 tonnes organisation category
WINNER – Silver Fern Farms Limited (Toitū carbonreduce certified organisation)
Reduced 19% of its operational carbon footprint since achieving Toitū carbonreduce certification in 2019.

[Sideshow Bob]

Great fun to watch.
Quess the buyer is trying to tempt a seller further down the sell side to jump the que.?

Looks like they gave up and bought at $1.20!

[percy]

Yes,however a seller has appeared with 20,000 to sell at $1.19.
The support level is very strong at $1.15.
So in a channel between $1.15 and $1.20. With the share price on a very strong overall up trend I expect the $1.20 resistance will be broken sometime 2022.Perhaps as early as beginning of March.
I do note that the share price did stay steady from mid December 2020 to end of February 2021 at 80 cents.

[percy]

Well we have run out of sellers.?

[iceman]

Well we have run out of sellers.?

As we predicted, a strong end of year run with suppliers ensuring they get their full patronage reward. Next moves will be interesting to watch

[Sideshow Bob]

Well we have run out of sellers.?

Go on Percy, throw a couple of thousand up there at $1.50....!! :t_up:

[percy]

Go on Percy, throw a couple of thousand up there at $1.50....!! :t_up:

Problem is I think they are worth more than $1.50.,and I would be scared some one bought them...lol

[iceman]

Problem is I think they are worth more than $1.50.,and I would be scared some one bought them...lol

You could try “fair value”, around the $2.50 mark !

[percy]

You could try “fair value”, around the $2.50 mark !

That sounds more like it.!!..

[stoploss]

Silver Fern Farms chief executive Simon Limmer says the company plans to expand its carbon-zero offering beyond beef to also include lamb and venison.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/127071171/silver-fern-farms-to-join-a-handful-of-kiwi-companies-offering-carbonzero-products?cid=app-iPhone

[Sideshow Bob]

Silver Fern Farms chief executive Simon Limmer says the company plans to expand its carbon-zero offering beyond beef to also include lamb and venison.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/127071171/silver-fern-farms-to-join-a-handful-of-kiwi-companies-offering-carbonzero-products?cid=app-iPhone

The last comment from Simon is key - "There is only one direction of travel for our industry and Silver Fern Farms wants to be out the front leading".

Good to see and again another step in front of domestic competition. Part of this will be the recognition that free-range, extensive NZ agriculture is/can be a sustainable source of protein.

Alot of it is based on the fact that many NZ farms are carbon positive, sequestering more carbon than what they emit. The First Carbon-Zero Farm in New Zealand | Toitū Envirocare (toitu.co.nz) (https://www.toitu.co.nz/news-and-events/news/farms/the-first-carbon-zero-farm-in-new-zealand) I don't think Lake Hawea Station is anything particularly special as a farm compared to other Kiwi farms (apart from the owner having more cash than average).

Policies undermining instead of promoting NZ farmers | Otago Daily Times Online News (odt.co.nz) (https://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/policies-undermining-instead-promoting-nz-farmers)

Don't want to start a debate on global warming and meat/dairy ruining the world, but enough of this carbon farming bull****, and productive NZ farms going to pine trees never to be cut down and creating other problems for our environment. Grrrrrr......I think I'll shut up now......

[BDL]

Maybe talk about fossil fuel fertilizers, palm kernel, polluted rivers, distance to markets, animal welfare. That will do to start with.....
NZ farmers are trying to pull the wool over the eyes of consumers.
"Carbon zero",when mostly all you have done is buy carbon credits to off set theirs.... load of BS.

[iceman]

Maybe talk about fossil fuel fertilizers, palm kernel, polluted rivers, distance to markets, animal welfare. That will do to start with.....
NZ farmers are trying to pull the wool over the eyes of consumers.
"Carbon zero",when mostly all you have done is buy carbon credits to off set theirs.... load of BS.

I suggest you look into the work SFF is doing in this field. As far as I can see, they are genuinly trying to make a difference to processes to achieve much lower carbon footprint and are NOT just buying carbon credits. They are well aware of the increasing number of customers that take these issues seriously, particularly in the USA for SFF, so it is a logical business decision to do this.
Credit where credit is due.

You´re outburst may be better directed at the Government that went to COP26 with a great plan to buy lots of carbon credit overseas !!!! But that´s not a debate for this thread I suppose :-)

From a recent Stuff article:

""Climate position 'a sham'
The party's old guard isn't happy either.

Former party co-leader Russel Norman, speaking in his capacity as head of Greenpeace New Zealand, says Shaw's position as climate minister is "highly problematic".

He called the nationally-determined contribution to reduce carbon emissions Shaw took to the COP 26 climate conference in Glasgow in October "a farce".

"It's just a sham. Almost all of it is being met by these offshore carbon credits, so it's obviously farcical. You can't say you're serious about climate change and then pay other people somewhere else in the world to cut emissions," he said.""

[BDL]

I said "mostly buying carbon credits", not "Just buying carbon credits".
I have no doubt SFF are doing a lot of work in this area. Lots of companies are, they have to, to stay abreast of the competition out there.

There is a lot of "green washing" going on, this Labour government is not doing anything like it promised regarding climate change.
My point is that if you are going to promote your product as truly "carbon zero", it really will need to be genuine, and I just don't know how long NZ can get away with "off setting carbon" like this, besides all the other known environmental issues.

[iceman]

I said "mostly buying carbon credits", not "Just buying carbon credits".
I have no doubt SFF are doing a lot of work in this area. Lots of companies are, they have to, to stay abreast of the competition out there.

There is a lot of "green washing" going on, this Labour government is not doing anything like it promised regarding climate change.
My point is that if you are going to promote your product as truly "carbon zero", it really will need to be genuine, and I just don't know how long NZ can get away with "off setting carbon" like this, besides all the other known environmental issues.

We are in full agreement on that :-)

[Sideshow Bob]

Agree BDL, there is alot of "greenwashing" going on with various companies and entities, and is one of my pet hates. As is off-setting, especially overseas companies buying land here for planting (or NZ buying credits overseas to meet what the govt has committed to). Also agree re the current government, they are just tinkering around the edges, however I think only way out of the carbon/global warming issue is changes in technology. Especially with expanding global populations.

I don't think someone like SFF would be going down this road unless it was absolutely genuine. It is backed by an outside agency, and the likes of the link I posted earlier the farm is carbon positive - so sequesters more carbon than it emits (according to their certification). Initally expect it will be a very small portion of their production and a bit of a trial, and if was being cynical, something for a bit of positive PR.

Farming has been measured by their carbon output only, and not their net carbon position - ie the difference between what they emit and sequester. The downstream processing/transport is more difficult currently to be carbon neutral, but many processors have already taken steps to reduce coal use, water use etc. However still more to be done though, both on farm and in processing.

[percy]

Down to only 144 available at $1.18

Quite a large volume at $1.20 offer. About 170k.

If a supplier, then buying now for a likely 10% cash back in April....

Think a supplier would have had to be on the register by 31st December 2021 to qualify for patronage rebates.
Since then we have seen trades between $1.16 and $1.20.Majority at $1.20.
Today 22,000 have been traded at $1.19.
Quotes are now buyer for 6,206 at $1.15 and seller of 8,000 wants $1.19.
Positive.

[Sideshow Bob]

Indeed, positive. Not reason why the share price shouldn't remain strong.

Still lined up to make another sizeable profit for the FY just ended 31/12.

At last years result, about $0.325 EPS, PE less than 3.7 and another year to add to the growing record of solid profits. Hoping might be a bit better than last year......

Only paid out a small portion of their profit in dividends last few years. Quite a bit has been reinvested in the company with capital expendiure. Some changes on some of the downstream products that should improve prospects for the season ahead.

At some stage should start chunking out cash......

[percy]

Some interesting comments from Keith Woodford.;
For the last 12-month period to September 2021, New Zealand ran a record deficit on its external current account with the rest of the world of $15.9 billion. This is in part because earnings from export services, largely tourism and the education of foreigners, have crashed. Conversely imports have ballooned to record levels.

This deficit has been financed by capital flows from overseas. At some stage the rest of the world is likely to question the economic sustainability of New Zealand. If that occurs then the exchange rate will crash.

If the exchange rate crashes, then that will be very bad for most New Zealanders. The exception will be for those New Zealanders who produce products for export.

A significant decline in the exchange rate may be what is needed to convince New Zealanders that export industries lie at the heart of our national well-being.

[Sideshow Bob]

Short Sellers Are Targeting Beyond Meat (BYND) - Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-13/beyond-meat-is-biggest-russell-1000-short-as-shares-struggle)

Short sellers are piling into Beyond Meat Inc. (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BYND:US), making it the most shorted company in the Russell 1000 Index, as the shares struggle to gain momentum amid growing competition for plant-based meat.

Later in the article.........

Beyond Meat and the plant-based meat category as a whole are facing a more difficult outlook (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-05/beyond-meat-surges-after-kfc-confirms-plant-based-chicken-debut), as it appears the products will reach far fewer American households than initially projected, according to a recent note from Peter Galbo, an analyst at Bank of America Corp. Galbo said that consumers “develop more habitual routines when using plant-based dairy” as opposed to Beyond Meat’s products, which are consumed less frequently.

[Sideshow Bob]

Critical worker shortages (ruralnewsgroup.co.nz) (https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/rural-news/rural-general-news/critical-worker-shortages)

[iceman]

A healthy turnover today with all shares on offer taken out at $1.20
Nothing for sale at present. I am not surprised, given the jitters in the sharemarkets at the moment, that people seek to put money into this much less volatile and seriously underpriced stock that is pumping out fully imputed dividends.

I'm looking forward to seeing the FY report.

[Sideshow Bob]

A healthy turnover today with all shares on offer taken out at $1.20
Nothing for sale at present. I am not surprised, given the jitters in the sharemarkets at the moment, that people seek to put money into this much less volatile and seriously underpriced stock that is pumping out fully imputed dividends.

I'm looking forward to seeing the FY report.

Sure some will come on to the offer, but first time I've seen nothing on the sell side......

[Sideshow Bob]

Sure some will come on to the offer, but first time I've seen nothing on the sell side......

Offer now at $1.25 :)

[Sideshow Bob]

Demand drives record prices.

Farmers Weekly NZ January 24 2022 by Farmers Weekly NZ - Issuu (https://issuu.com/farmersweeklynz/docs/fw_24-01_issuu)

Headwinds with shipping and labour, and now with omicron.

[Sideshow Bob]

Offer now at $1.25 :)

Just traded at $1.25.

PE now up to a whopping 3.85.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://farmersweekly.co.nz/s/fw-article/meat-industry-planning-for-omicron-MCXIKFUPZL5FEKZPAA4VDVCGJJLE

[iceman]

Just traded at $1.25.

PE now up to a whopping 3.85.

OMG. Time to sell with the P/E at this elevated level and gross yield on my expected divie crashing below 10% ??? Yeah, Nah.

[percy]

OMG. Time to sell with the P/E at this elevated level and gross yield on my expected divie crashing below 10% ??? Yeah, Nah.
Yes well, maybe not.???
Here's is a comparison with another meat company listed on USX,using both company's Issuer profile
....................................eps........... .PE.........Yield..............share price.
Blue Sky Meats................05............26..........3.8 46%...........$1.30
Silver Fern Farms............3176.......3.936.......6.08%..... ........$1.25
Should SFF trade on the same PE as BLU its share price would be ...wait for it.......................$8.25..
Even on a modest PE of 8 SFF share price would be $2.54..
Not a lot of people know that.........lol.

[percy]

Just as my excitement was building as SFF reached and was trading at $1.25,


So far today 81,653 traded at $1.16 and there are still 13,449 for sale at $1.16.

[Sideshow Bob]

Has the appetite for plant-based meat already peaked? | Financial Times (ft.com) (https://www.ft.com/content/996330d5-5ffc-4f35-b5f8-a18848433966)

[percy]

Has the appetite for plant-based meat already peaked? | Financial Times (ft.com) (https://www.ft.com/content/996330d5-5ffc-4f35-b5f8-a18848433966)

Would appreciate you telling us what the article had to say, as I do not subscribe to the FT.

[Sideshow Bob]

Would appreciate you telling us what the article had to say, as I do not subscribe to the FT.

Essentially that plant-meat has been struggling of late, and companies like Beyond Meat and Impossible Burger have underperformed and seen their share price hammered.

After the initial hype and trial, sales have been disappointing, but some experts think it is in the "trough of disillusionment" as part of the "Gartner Hype Cycle" when the initial fizz and hype has gone out, and people have trialled with expectation, but largely disappointed. Electric cars, mobile phones etc all gone through the same cycle, and current stage usually means company failures, industry consolidation and product improvement before mainstream adoption.

[percy]

Essentially that plant-meat has been struggling of late, and companies like Beyond Meat and Impossible Burger have underperformed and seen their share price hammered.

After the initial hype and trial, sales have been disappointing, but some experts think it is in the "trough of disillusionment" as part of the "Gartner Hype Cycle" when the initial fizz and hype has gone out, and people have trialled with expectation, but largely disappointed. Electric cars, mobile phones etc all gone through the same cycle, and current stage usually means company failures, industry consolidation and product improvement before mainstream adoption.

What a bugger they are struggling....lol

[Sideshow Bob]

What a bugger they are struggling....lol

I think that they will come again - there is probably a place, as population increases and growing wealth in developing countries - which historically means more protein consumption. Western consumers haven't taken to it like they have to plant based milk alternatives yet. Consumers definitely not liking the long list of ingredients, being heavily processed, and in some cases including GM ingredients. Even in NZ meat consumption per capita is declining - although we are above average in world terms.

I'm so not convinced not eating meat will solve the climate "crisis". Undoubtedly there will be developments in breeding, feeding etc to reduce particularly methane output. These fake milks/meats often aren't as green as many think. The ingredients still have to come from somewhere.....

The other important aspect is that typcially they don't have the same nutritional profile as the real thing, and then compare the nutrition vs carbon emmissions.....

[Sideshow Bob]

Expected processing delays due to Omicron 'perfect storm' for farmers | Stuff.co.nz (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/127613209/expected-processing-delays-due-to-omicron-perfect-storm-for-farmers)

[Sideshow Bob]

Page 23 - "Planning for Omicron".

Again demostrates how many companies have been let down on RAT's, MIQ and seasonal workers.

Farmers Weekly NZ January 31 2022 by Farmers Weekly NZ - Issuu (https://issuu.com/farmersweeklynz/docs/fw_31-01-22_issuu)