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Phaedrus
23-07-2004, 09:59 AM
Briscoes has been in a downtrend for about 18 months now, and I think it has bottomed out. It's only fair to point out though, that I have thought this before - five times, in fact. I was particularly confident I was right the time BGR found good support at just over 140, as marked by the pale blue dotted line. Wrong. Again. Each and every time, prices rose only to reverse and continue the downtrend without breaking above the trendline. Who knows how low this will go? Obviously not me!
The chart below shows just how timely trendline break signals can be - those selling on the trendline break realised almost all of the gains made in the preceding uptrend. The other five indicators plotted here gave Sell signals a week or two later, though at lower prices, of course.
Many people use trailing stops that are based on a price drop of a certain fixed percentage. This figure could range from less than 5% to over 20%, depending on the volatility of the stock in question - it needs to be varied for each individual stock. Trailing stops based on a stock's Average True Range do not have this problem - they adjust themselves automatically to variations in volatility. The idea is to choose an ATR multiple that is appropriate to your trading style. Short-term traders might use a stop that trails prices by, say, 3 times a stocks average range. Medium term traders might use a multiple of, say 6, while those interested in the long-term might want to use a stop that trailed prices by 12 times the average volatility. The aim here is to react only to price moves that are of a significant magnitude over and above the normal volatility. The chart plots a trailing stop with a multiple of 11 times the average volatility of this stock.
BGR is rising and nearing the trendline - as it has many times over the last year. None of the six plotted indicators that gave such good exit signals have indicated a buy yet.
The magenta line plotted after the Sell signal is an eleven times ATR trailing stop such as would be used by a conservative trader that sold BGR short at the trendline break. They would cover their short when BGR broke above this line, so of course this event would make a good conservative "Buy" signal as well.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/BGR2001.gif

clearasmud
23-07-2004, 10:06 AM
Your chart just proves that it hasn't bottemed out!

Gryffyn
23-07-2004, 01:10 PM
Are you able to take into account the "Halo" effect of WHS having a bounce?

willy_wonker
23-07-2004, 02:20 PM
KING has got this one right. :)

Risk
23-07-2004, 03:28 PM
Phaedrus, sounds like youre bottom fishing?!

this one came to my notice a few weeks ago with the spike in volume...which may precede a price rise.

however, i dismissed it soon after, as the following days did not have exceptional volume, and the chart still looks ugly.

if I had to pick between WHS or BGR I'd pick WHS (although both yearly charts look quite similar)....but even if I did want BGR, there will be plenty of time to jump aboard once an uptrend is clearly confirmed.

Steve
23-07-2004, 06:45 PM
I sold out this afternoon, having bought back in May. Tidy profit, but think the price may go back down after hitting the trendline. *Note:this will probably mean that the price will continue upwards this time!*

Liberty
23-07-2004, 07:19 PM
Steve, will you buy back if you are proven wrong and the price continues to rise through the trendline?

Burgerbun
23-07-2004, 11:45 PM
quote:Originally posted by willy_wonker

KING has got this one right. :)




:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
yeah right....

you were saying that a $1.53

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

stop weaving little WW stories[:p]

Steve
24-07-2004, 08:37 AM
quote:Originally posted by Liberty

Steve, will you buy back if you are proven wrong and the price continues to rise through the trendline?


Possibly, but it will depend if any other stocks have appeared on the radar, due to the constraint of available funds...

Barrel Scraper
25-07-2004, 11:04 PM
Heres my take on the charts and Fundies for BRG.

Buy demand comes onto this stock leading up to 1/2 and FY results (1/2 yr = 5 Sept 03, FY = 19 Mar 04).
The market however appears generally unimpressed when any quarter sales figures are released ... but again shows support (prior to the release of figures) in search of a turnaround in fortunes.

The current surge in SP is in anticipation of a good sales result for Q2 and a desire not to miss the hop should a better than expected 1/2Yr result ensue (carrying with it a 2 to 3cps divvie).

I'm not anticipating anything fantastic for the 1/2 yr, Mr Duke has already spelt that out. But by the same token I am not prepared to discount the possibility that better than expected results have been achieved.
I fully suport BRGs strategy to improve margins but don't think the true effect will be seen till the FY results next March as the impact of less sales/higher margins becomes apparent after the Xmas period.
In other words the FY to 31/1/05 results will be the measure of wether BRG and its new strategy is on the right track.

I am not put off by the still apparent sales at Briscoes as close inspection reveals that only certain items are heavily discounted with the majority of stock prices remaining largely untouched.

So, while I remain hopeful the BRG shareprice has seen a turnaround, I am not convinced we won't see a 1.30 or less SP again over the next few months.. but after that - my take is that holders of BRG stock ( particularly those who bought at sub 1.40 recently, or in the near future) will be very happy indeed.

rotsevni
09-04-2005, 03:44 PM
Most of the indicators look pretty compelling to me.
Here are a few:

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2005-2/949184/BGRApr05.gif

Phaedrus does you longer term chart say any different?

10-04-2005, 08:56 AM
THE KING notes there has been strong buying for a while now good t/over numbers feels some one has been buying in,, from $1.05 to $1.25 a rise of over 20% thats LIFE.. ;)

Lizard
10-04-2005, 10:35 AM
quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING notes there has been strong buying for a while now good t/over numbers feels some one has been buying in,, from $1.05 to $1.25 a rise of over 20% thats LIFE.. ;)


Possibly Fisher Funds? Seem to do most of their buying round end of quarter, and they have a continuous stream of new Super money to find a home for...

Phaedrus
10-04-2005, 03:19 PM
Rotsevni,
Your 3 month chart gives a much more optimistic view than my 3 year chart. You are also using more active indicators in the MACD and 14 day DMI. This is all as it should be for fairly short-term traders - I was trying to cater for longer-term, less active holders. BGR has been in a "medium-term" uptrend for about 5 months and this fact is reflected in your chart, associated indicators and optimism.
The chart below shows a selection of more conservative long-term trend indicators. All gave reasonably timely exit signals when BGR peaked, but none are currently signalling a buy. The idea of using multiple indicators is that you are looking for some degree of concensus - you would not act on any single isolated signal. The long-term (2 year) downtrend is still intact, although the trendline was broken in July of last year when BGR went into a short trading range before resuming its downtrend. Long-term, BGR is still making lower lows and lower highs.
An interesting exercise for you would be to apply your charted indicators to the 2 year downtrend and see how many "Buy" signals were generated over this period. There is, of course, nothing wrong with such signals, or acting on them - just so long as you use the same indicators (or indicators of equivalent sensitivity) to exit your trades. Indicators that have given a series of "Buy" signals as the slide continued are not really suitable for anyone looking for the end of this long downtrend.
http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/BGR410001.gif

11-04-2005, 08:03 AM
THE KING says Smith barney Citigroup give a current target of a possible $1.34 but require more evidence of profit PROMISSES.. [^]

Lizard
03-08-2005, 08:38 AM
Looks like a nice quarterly result. FA's might buy now. TA's can wait a few days for the FA's to deliver them a "buy" signal [}:)];)

Snow Leopard
03-08-2005, 08:50 AM
To be honest Lizard, although it is an encouraging result, and we may see a rise in SP, the TA guys are not going to be woken from their slumbers by this one.

edit: I'll get my knife and fork ready, just in case a pie is delivered later. ;)

Lizard
03-08-2005, 09:33 AM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

To be honest Lizard, although it is an encouraging result, and we may see a rise in SP, the TA guys are not going to be woken from their slumbers by this one.

edit: I'll get my knife and fork ready, just in case a pie is delivered later. ;)


Quick edit PT ;) Perhaps I should just preserve this post. [8D]

Snow Leopard
03-08-2005, 09:40 AM
I very rarely delete my posts and never to cover my mistakes.

regards

Paper (3 star) Tiger

winner69
03-08-2005, 09:54 AM
Who said the economy was stuffed .... obviously people still spending heaps

Might need an interest rates rise to slow the BGR monster down!!!!!!

scamper
03-08-2005, 10:12 AM
Well, the current price at 132 is an 8-month high, but then the last 10 months have been pretty terrible!

am a dismal holder (with pathetic excuses) for a couple of years, so would be quite interested in catching a ride, but am not totally convinced...

returned to nz last week after 3-month absence and yesterday took a trip to briscoes in dunners to replace some stuff. marched in, said to the first shop-person i met that i would like some help. within four minutes had scored an electric jug and a pillow to my specifications, paid for them, and was back in the car! for 'fast and efficient', it would be difficult to imagine better service.
i may regret the delay in buying more...

does anyone know off-hand if there is a historical connection between retail stocks movements and the pre-election period? certainly the bgr recovery does not indicate a sliding confidence or economy.

K9
03-08-2005, 12:57 PM
thats a bit of a stretch Scamper...

but you can be assured that BGR will do well under labour with the students population

New interest free flatting supplys for all!!!:D

Lizard
03-08-2005, 01:41 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

I very rarely delete my posts and never to cover my mistakes.

regards

Paper (3 star) Tiger


LOL General Tiger! And more deserved than many I'm sure.
Respectfully yours,
L.

discl: bought BGR today $1.29

Snow Leopard
03-08-2005, 06:42 PM
Up $0.13c to $1.34 or a 10.7% rise if you prefer to think that way.

When the first quarter result came out the price spiked to $1.27 from $1.20 and then gave it all up the next day.
However this now makes two quarters in a row of good figures and it is likely that they have a definite formula for better results, they certainly needed one.

So what will tomorrow bring?
Will a lot of long suffering holders take the opportunity to get out and bring the price back down or will others join in the new enthusiam for BGR. I will watch with interest.

Disc: none held.

Lizard
04-08-2005, 08:51 AM
Okay PT. A few figures to give you some ammo against me for later!:)

Estimating HY profit from the sales data is extremely difficult because despite positive comments on gross margins, it was mostly the ballooning of indirect costs that pulled profits back last year (FY was up on both revenue and gross margin, but NPAT down). So, making several assumptions, including the fact that indirect costs only grew by 5%, I would estimate HY NPAT at $10-$11m. This would bring the rolling 12mth NPAT to $22-$23m, or 10.3-10.8cps (still less than 03/04 year, but I don't think the market will care). Takes P/E to 12.3-12.9 (at $1.33). Now I am rashly going to assume that because they have at least 21cps in cash and FCF is usually well above NPAT, they can afford to cheer up shareholders with an extra 1cps dividend (total 8cps) - i.e. gross yield of 9.0%.

So technically, my base case valuation is $1.47 plus 21cps cash, total $1.68. Still not exciting, but hopeful of possible upside and the yield is nice in the "pipe and slippers" portfolio.

PDYOR

Lizard
26-08-2005, 03:21 PM
Phaedrus (or PT), I'd be interested to know whether you can read anything into the BGR charts atm. Result out next Thursday.

Cheers,
Liz

(And I need lots of posts on this thread before the result so my rash forecasts can recede into past pages...;))

limegreen
26-08-2005, 03:53 PM
There seems to be cautious ground for optimism.

With the recent price spike, the price has started to trend upward. It's also broken throught a fairly long moving average which would have kept you out of the stock for all of the preceding downtrend. The price has faltered through a previous resistance/support line (red) at around $1.27, but has not consistently closed above it.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/bgr26aug05_2.gif

However, if you look at this longer term chart, and re-read Phaedrus's original post, you'll note that there have been grounds for optimism before (there are several potential buys signalled by the apparent break of downtrends).

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/bgr26aug05_1.gif

As a long term investor, and a TA student, I find picking the the start of the good news the most difficult. To ensure that the price action really is heading back into positive territory, this means, in practice, that I buy late.

Phaedrus
26-08-2005, 03:58 PM
Liz,
BGR is currently in a shallow uptrend, with price action confined to a fairly narrow trend channel. Bollinger bands are wide at the moment, so a breakout (above or below) this channel is not likely in the shorter term. Volume indicators show neither accumulation nor distribution. Most oscillators show BGR as neither oversold nor overbought right now.
My personal view is that $1.10 will turn out to be the bottom of the 2 year downtrend. (No, I didn't buy then but I did sell at the red arrow!)
http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/BGR826001.gif

Lizard
27-08-2005, 07:45 AM
Thanks Phaedrus/Limegreen. From an FA point, it always seemed likely that last Dec would provide a good entry point on the basis of convertible notes maturing. But I wasn't game to get in then either. Still ambivalent about retail prospects going forward, but holding in the hope that the turnaround will exceed analyst expectations.

BRICKS
27-08-2005, 10:05 AM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Thanks Phaedrus/Limegreen. From an FA point, it always seemed likely that last Dec would provide a good entry point on the basis of convertible notes maturing. But I wasn't game to get in then either. Still ambivalent about retail prospects going forward, but holding in the hope that the turnaround will exceed analyst expectations.


Dont get your Knickers on a Knote for large rises it more of a side run comming.. [8D]

K9
27-08-2005, 02:41 PM
just bought $550+ worth of houseware updates for $225.

50%-95% off everything I got


great company;)

thanks for comin:D:D:D:D...until next sale

winner69
27-08-2005, 03:20 PM
quote:Originally posted by K9

50%-95% off everything I got


great company;)

thanks for comin:D:D:D:D...until next sale


So BGR is really worth 260 plus then K9 ... before the 50% off sale

Wasn't it once that price ... before the mark downs?

Lizard
01-09-2005, 01:44 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Okay PT. A few figures to give you some ammo against me for later!:)

Estimating HY profit from the sales data is extremely difficult because despite positive comments on gross margins, it was mostly the ballooning of indirect costs that pulled profits back last year (FY was up on both revenue and gross margin, but NPAT down). So, making several assumptions, including the fact that indirect costs only grew by 5%, I would estimate HY NPAT at $10-$11m. This would bring the rolling 12mth NPAT to $22-$23m, or 10.3-10.8cps (still less than 03/04 year, but I don't think the market will care). Takes P/E to 12.3-12.9 (at $1.33). Now I am rashly going to assume that because they have at least 21cps in cash and FCF is usually well above NPAT, they can afford to cheer up shareholders with an extra 1cps dividend (total 8cps) - i.e. gross yield of 9.0%.

So technically, my base case valuation is $1.47 plus 21cps cash, total $1.68. Still not exciting, but hopeful of possible upside and the yield is nice in the "pipe and slippers" portfolio.

PDYOR


Actuals: $10.15m, interim div up 0.25cps to 3cps. Maths worked okay :)

K9
01-09-2005, 08:57 PM
Yip, those constant sales must kick the guts out of the "full price" sales, and even worse because they must only be a very small %age.


PS. I went in to pick up some wine glasses, which I thought were 1/2 price @ $19.95 but charged $39.95, nice young man said, sorry but that design wasn't in the sale...showed me some more that were...said $10 was fine:D because of my trouble...nice young fellow he was.

1/2ed and 1/2ed again


75% off, thanks for comin:D

see ya next sale

Snow Leopard
02-09-2005, 06:32 AM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard


quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Okay PT. A few figures to give you some ammo against me for later!:)

Estimating HY profit from the sales data is extremely difficult because despite positive comments on gross margins, it was mostly the ballooning of indirect costs that pulled profits back last year (FY was up on both revenue and gross margin, but NPAT down). So, making several assumptions, including the fact that indirect costs only grew by 5%, I would estimate HY NPAT at $10-$11m. This would bring the rolling 12mth NPAT to $22-$23m, or 10.3-10.8cps (still less than 03/04 year, but I don't think the market will care). Takes P/E to 12.3-12.9 (at $1.33). Now I am rashly going to assume that because they have at least 21cps in cash and FCF is usually well above NPAT, they can afford to cheer up shareholders with an extra 1cps dividend (total 8cps) - i.e. gross yield of 9.0%.

So technically, my base case valuation is $1.47 plus 21cps cash, total $1.68. Still not exciting, but hopeful of possible upside and the yield is nice in the "pipe and slippers" portfolio.

PDYOR


Actuals: $10.15m, interim div up 0.25cps to 3cps. Maths worked okay :)

Well done :). But next time we expect the divvy to be spot on as well ;)

Lizard
02-09-2005, 06:54 AM
Thanks for noticing PT. 8cps is total for the full year - I think yesterdays dividend suggests that it will be.

Lizard
07-09-2005, 09:50 AM
So can we call this an established uptrend now?

I can't get OBV charts for NZ stocks - would be interested to see what that shows too.

Phaedrus
07-09-2005, 10:09 AM
Liz,
OBV for you. Do I detect an increasing interest in TA?
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-10/848030/BGR97001.gif

Lizard
07-09-2005, 11:53 AM
Thanks Phaedrus.

To be honest, I really enjoy your TA. I think of FA as the "get ready" sign and TA as the "go" sign... (though I've still got a tendency to jump the gun).

And yes, I've printed off your old Sharechat "TA Agenda" and some of the recommended web pages, so I'll slowly add the basics.

I like OBV - is there anywhere to get free OBV charts for NZ shares?

Cheers,
Liz

limegreen
07-09-2005, 12:03 PM
Lizard,
You can get OBV from Reuters (http://investing.reuters.co.uk/Stocks/Charts.aspx?symbol=BGR.NZ)
and to a certain extent from Big charts (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com).
A caveat about that latter is that it will often claim not to find your NZX stock code, but if you change the country to New Zealand and then search again, it will often get you there. Big charts is the better service, but the double search activity is frustrating. It does, however, let you save stock specific settings (but you still have to double search).
Enjoy :)

Lizard
07-09-2005, 12:15 PM
Thanks limegreen. I use Bigcharts for Oz shares, but got totally frustrated trying to get NZ charts out of them. Great tool though. The Reuters charts will probably be enough for me for a while.:)

limegreen
07-09-2005, 01:48 PM
Because I invest rather than trade, (plus OBV is very incremental), I only check my nz stocks on bigcharts every week or two. I eyeball them (without indicators) more frequently, and can usually spot price/volume movements that might make me want to look in more detail. I find the reuters about as annoying as bigcharts (because you can't modify or save parameters).

winner69
28-10-2005, 08:04 PM
Everybody losing interest in BGR as it steadily falls back to the lows of a while ago

Lizard says worth 167 ... BRICKS says a dog (I think) ..... this round to BRICKS

All happened since HBY put a scare into the market ... retail outlook maybe not so good .... and of course rising interest rates always hurt yield plays

105 again .... surely not!

BRICKS
29-10-2005, 02:14 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

Everybody losing interest in BGR as it steadily falls back to the lows of a while ago

Lizard says worth 167 ... BRICKS says a dog (I think) ..... this round to BRICKS

All happened since HBY put a scare into the market ... retail outlook maybe not so good .... and of course rising interest rates always hurt yield plays

105 again .... surely not!


YOUR so kind Doomsday.. [8D]

Lizard
02-11-2005, 12:27 PM
I think the TA's will tell me this is back in a downtrend and I should have been out again by now.

Third quarter result looks like they are on track to meet or better my $22-$23m FY forecast, but I guess a forward P/E of 12 is now considered fair value for retail stocks, given a declining economic outlook. Am sticking to my prediction of 8cps dividend for the year or gross yield of 9.3% at this point.

But sentiment will beat facts in the short term.

limegreen
02-11-2005, 01:58 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

I think the TA's will tell me this is back in a downtrend and I should have been out again by now.


It's still trending up. There's just been a higher low after a higher high. However, the tentative trend is ever shallower. In terms of upward movement 'glacial' might be an appropriate adjective. Not very compelling, however. Looking at the longer term chart, there is resistance at $1.45/$1.50, but the argument for holding this stock doesn't seem too compelling.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/bgr1nov05.gif

Lizard
02-11-2005, 03:50 PM
Thanks LG. Glacial is the word. Though even a "glacial" uptrend might be enough if the sharemarket doesn't thaw shortly. 16cps capital growth following that trend-line and a 8cps ff dividend could still get me 22% in 12 months at this price...which just qualifies for a hold.

But with the lack of enthusiasm to todays announcement, maybe the uptrend won't hold that long...

Snoopy, where are you? Boring income stock with minimal growth prospects here for you...

quartzpurple
01-12-2005, 01:04 PM
Hello Everyone...

Has anyone noticed the MD has been buying the shares back? Is he comtemplating to take the company private again?

BRICKS
01-12-2005, 01:44 PM
quote:Originally posted by quartzpurple

Hello Everyone...

Has anyone noticed the MD has been buying the shares back? Is he comtemplating to take the company private again?


YOUR right each day he buys what seems to be available but remember 3% per six months but the turnover has not been that big.. BUT he keeps BUYING.. [8D]

scamper
01-12-2005, 02:43 PM
Hey! QP is back, I think!
By my reckoning he's been absent for about three years -- or have you been posting under another name?
anyway, welcome back, and thanks for the post -- i hadn't noticed the MD's activity...
Cheers, Scamper

Snoopy
01-12-2005, 05:21 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard


Snoopy, where are you? Boring income stock with minimal growth prospects here for you...


Annual dividend of 7.25cps on a share price of $1.33 gives a gross yield of just over 8%.

That's OK. But with 'The Warehouse' focussing their attention back on New Zealand, and Dr Bollard warning NZers about unnecessary discretionary spending, things can't be looking that bright for the immediate future of BGR.

I've voted for Restaurant Brands as my main retail exposure. 50% more dividend income for the dollar -compared with BGR- and I would argue stronger franchises too. I don't think BGR is a dog. I just think that there are more attractive alternative retail investments out there

SNOOPY

Lizard
01-12-2005, 10:22 PM
Snoopy, I'd love to put BGR up against RBD on a bet, but given your timeframe would be at least 5 years, I'm afraid the alzheimers would preclude me calling you up to collect...

....um, what was I saying?

Snoopy
01-12-2005, 11:22 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Snoopy, I'd love to put BGR up against RBD on a bet, but given your timeframe would be at least 5 years, I'm afraid the alzheimers would preclude me calling you up to collect...

....um, what was I saying?


There is no need to wait five years to find out the 'result' of our five year competition Lizard. You have zero growth BGR with an 8% yield. I have zero growth RBD with a 12% yield. You've lost already, and we haven't even crossed the start line!

Of course, no one can predict share prices over that time frame with any great accuracy so let's say we *actually* run the competition (as a thought experiment). We each start with a $10,000 investment in our respective share.

The result is that, after five years, you end up with a cumulative value total of $18,000 and I end up with a cumulative value total of $16,000. Yet even though you ended up with more cash than I did, you have *still* lost the contest.

At first glance you may think that my solution to this competition problem defies all common sense. However, you are a thoughtful person. So I am sure that in due course you will figure out why my answer is correct.

SNOOPY

Snow Leopard
02-12-2005, 06:17 AM
Snoopy (or anyone) would you be so kind as to explain your solution, please?

Lizard
02-12-2005, 06:37 AM
PT, I know you are just checking to see if I've answered this yet...but no.

Am still wondering how I ended up with $18,000...

If I put $10,000 in a no growth stock for 5 years, paying 8% yield, I would end up with $10,000 in cash and (after tax) $3,000 of designer clothes and make-up....


Oops, just noticed this is my 499th post, so I guess the next one had better be more intelligent!

Snow Leopard
02-12-2005, 06:48 AM
I think there is something hidden in the words "cumulative value total". Either that or Snoopy is barking up the wrong tree.

Snoopy
02-12-2005, 12:04 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

PT, I know you are just checking to see if I've answered this yet...but no.

Am still wondering how I ended up with $18,000...


The market can work in mysterious ways....


quote:
If I put $10,000 in a no growth stock for 5 years, paying 8% yield, I would end up with $10,000 in cash and (after tax) $3,000 of designer clothes and make-up....


I'l take your calculations as correct Lizard. That means that the market must have increased the value of those BGR shares you hold by another $5000 to arrive at a cumulative value total $18,000. Lucky you!

SNOOPY

Snoopy
02-12-2005, 12:15 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

I think there is something hidden in the words "cumulative value total".


No nothing like that. I'm not playing hidden word meanings. 'Cumulative value total' means exactly what it says. The full effects of everything added up! If I had expressed what I was trying to say more simply than that then, IMO, I might have been misinterpreted.

The clue to the conundrum is that Lizard has already lost the five year competition before it starts. If that is true, it can only mean one thing about the one final actual result that each of us achieve...

SNOOPY

Lizard
02-12-2005, 07:40 PM
Okay Snoopy,

Multichoice answer:

a) Your valuation of the "free pizza voucher with every annual report" was higher than mine?

b) You happened to buy distressed RTX shares with the RBD dividends?

c) You are in a lower tax bracket and used the imputation credits to offset personal tax (and reinvest)?

d) You get cheaper sales on designer clothes and make-up in Christchurch?

Sorry, long day. I'll let you tell me the answer :)

Snoopy
02-12-2005, 09:35 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Okay Snoopy,

Multichoice answer:

a) Your valuation of the "free pizza voucher with every annual report" was higher than mine?

b) You happened to buy distressed RTX shares with the RBD dividends?

c) You are in a lower tax bracket and used the imputation credits to offset personal tax (and reinvest)?

d) You get cheaper sales on designer clothes and make-up in Christchurch?

Sorry, long day. I'll let you tell me the answer :)


All ingenious answers Lizard. You and Paper Tiger are obviously too intelligent to answer the question I posed! The answer is much simpler than you both think.

e) 'The answer'

In the blue corner we have 'Lizard' with $10,000 invested in BGR. A 'stable' share with an 8% (gross) yield. 8% on $10,000 works out at $800 per year. Over five years Lizard gets 5x$800= $4000, and retains the original 'stable' investment of $10,000.

Expected Total in Lizard's Bank Account after five years:

$10,000 + $4,000 = $14,000. (or around $12,680 after tax)

In the red corner we have 'Snoopy' with $10,000 invested on RBD. A 'stable' share with a 12% (gross) yield. 12% on $10,000 works out at $1200 per year. Over five years Snoopy gets 5x$1200 = $6000, and retains the original 'stable' investment of $10,000.

Expected Total in Snoopy's Bank Account after five years:

$10,000 + $6,000 = $16,000. (or around $14,020 after tax)

Now $14,020 is greater than $12,680, so we have a win to the 'Red Corner' (Snoopy).

SNOOPY

Snow Leopard
03-12-2005, 07:01 AM
Ingenious Snoopy, but where I was confused, and was the case with Lizard as well, was this bit of the orginal post:

"The result is that, after five years, you end up with a cumulative value total of $18,000 and I end up with a cumulative value total of $16,000. Yet even though you ended up with more cash than I did, you have *still* lost the contest."

That was what we queried, and very obviously.


So you were barking up the wrong tree after all.

regards

Paper Tiger

PS the actual correct answer is a fish and two matchsticks.

Lizard
03-12-2005, 07:49 AM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

PS the actual correct answer is a fish and two matchsticks.


RBD are going to sell sushi???

Phaedrus
03-12-2005, 09:29 AM
This discussion has become increasingly theoretical and divorced from reality. Snoopy's entire argument relies on RBD and BGR stock prices not dropping any further and on dividends being maintained at the current rate. It is a complete farce to base a "competition" on the projection of such assumptions 5 years into the future.

Snoopy, I think that you are still valiantly struggling to convince yourself that you have done the right thing by buying and holding RBD. To me, such a course of action has been an obvious mistake. I am not scoffing at this mistake (we all make them) but I am amused at the strenous efforts you continue to make to "prove" to yourself that this has been a superior "investment". I am astonished that anyone would happily defend holding a stock that failed to rise (and in fact fell) during the strongest bull market we have had in decades.

In fact, of course, both RBD and BGR have been anything but "stable" investments - each doubled and halved in value over the last few years. To have doggedly held on throughout such major fluctuations and make no capital gain at all is taking passive investment to an absurd level.

Consider what a slightly more active investor would have done with these 2 stocks. Many such investors use a 200 day moving average to keep them on the right side of major trends - not buying (or holding) any stock below this ma. Such an approach would have kept them in while both stocks were rising, got them out after the peaks, and kept them out while both RBD and BGR went on to halve in value. The use of trendlines would have given even better results. While you have settled for a "stable" return of 12%, slightly more active investors were making (and keeping) gains of 100%.

Whether such investors ever bought back in to RBD or BGR is immaterial. They were in when it mattered and out when it mattered. Anyone "buying and holding" either of these stocks made a lot of money - then gave it all back to the market.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/RBDbgr123001.gif

Snoopy
03-12-2005, 10:39 AM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Ingenious Snoopy, but where I was confused, and was the case with Lizard as well, was this bit of the orginal post:

"The result is that, after five years, you end up with a cumulative value total of $18,000 and I end up with a cumulative value total of $16,000. Yet even though you ended up with more cash than I did, you have *still* lost the contest."

That was what we queried, and very obviously.


A fair observation Paper Tiger. The point I was trying to make there was that not all information presented is always relevant to the problem.

I am not retreating from that statement, nor denying that at the end of the five year competition Lizard ended up richer. Unfortunately, however, in the real world we never have the luxury of investing 'with hindsight'.

The question that you and Lizard needed to ask to eliminate this information from the problem was:

"How did you know that the total value of your BGR shares would rise from being worth $10,000 to being worth $15,320 [$18,000-$2,680(cumulative dividend)= $15,320 ] when you expected the company to perform in a 'stable' way?"

I am arguing that looking out five years in advance there is *no way* you could have known or even reasonably predicted, exactly what would happen. All sorts of things can happen in an economy over five years, both at the macro and micro level. Heck, Rod Duke could even be run over by a bus in 4.5 years time! The future time line that lead to the BGR $18,000 'cumulative valuation' in 2010 was *not determined* at the time Lizard made her investment!

So let's go back to the present day and examine all the future possibilities that might happen.

1/There is the 'alternative future' where Duke buys the Silly Solly's Swimsuit chain headquartered in Iceland, which goes on to ruin the BGR chain following the collapse of of the export eskimo tog market.

2/There is the future where Duke bumbles along with Briscoes and Rebel Sports brands, unable to find his illusive 'third arm of the business'. But also unable to build up his two existing businesses (because of all the wasted management energy used in fruitless searching).

3/There is the future where Duke sells Briscoes to 'the Warehouse' and concentrates on his remaining 'Rebel Sports' chain ending up with a more profitable yet smaller business.

And there are all kinds of other 'alternate futures' between and beyond the ones that I have just described.

I blinded you to all these 'other options' by taking you both in my time machine to show you what happened in the end. Unfortunately in 'real life' I don't have a time machine and I'd venture to suggest that neither of you two do either. That means all of us have to make future investment decisions based around the return of each of the 'alternate futures' multiplied by our best guess of the probability of each respective alternate future occuring.

Lizard and I both chose somewhat conservative models to make our respective investment decisions: Namely 'no growth' and collect the dividends along the way with not much chance of anything else happening. We effectively assigned a probability of close to zero that Restaurant Brands would ever grow their market share, or that Rod Duke would find the gold plated 'third chain' he keeps telling us he wants to buy. You might regard both of our respective 'future focussed investment models' as credible (and I do).

When you compare our 'expected returns' with what we actually achieved you will see that *both* of us did better than we thought. My argument is that both of us were simply 'lucky' to outperform our carefully considered investment models. And that Lizard was simply 'luckier' than I was. Yet none of this 'luck' was forseeable. So it is not reasonable to include random variatio

Snoopy
03-12-2005, 11:04 AM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

This discussion has become increasingly theoretical and divorced from reality. Snoopy's entire argument relies on RBD and BGR stock prices not dropping any further and on dividends being maintained at the current rate. It is a complete farce to base a "competition" on the projection of such assumptions 5 years into the future.


I'll agree with you on one thing Phaedrus. No human being (or dog) knows exactly what will happen in the future. However, that doesn't mean it is impossible to make a reasonable educated guess, based on the fundamental information we have around us. Given that RBD and BGR have ended up more or less exactly where they started 2-3 years ago, what do *you* think is most likely to happen:

1/ RBD/BGR will move into 'growth mode' and the share price of both will move inexorably upwards.
2/ RBD/BGR will gradually lose credibility with customers and both companies will end up slowly sinking to oblivion.
3/ RBD and BGR will 'bumble on' much as they are doing now with a flat share price and steady dividends.

I believe the most likely scenario is /3/. Do you or anyone else disagree, and if so why?

But even though I *expect* /3/, that *doesn't mean* I dismiss /1/ and /2/. I simply assign those two scenarios a low probability. Admittedly in 'real life' (not in a competition) I wouldn't assume /3/ will continue indefinitely. It might be that /1/ or /2/ suddenly becomes more likely and that might cause me to change my 'buy and hold' behaviour. I would reassess the probabilities of scenarios of /1/, /2/ and /3/ on a six monthly or annual basis.

SNOOPY

Lizard
11-01-2006, 04:23 PM
BGR share price has been dull, reflecting general (deserved) sentiment regarding retail prospects. TA's will possibly tell me that the short, medium and long term trend lines would see me out of this at a small loss....

While I have increasing respect for TA, in this case I continue to hold. From my point of view, the share price is reflecting a general economic outlook and not BGR's prospects in particular. While I don't think we are in for a sudden leap upwards, I do suspect some steady sp growth may be triggered either by the early Feb announcement of quarterly sales or the mid-March profit result.

I disagree with Snoopy's view of BGR as "bumbling along". I consider them to be performing adequately - but recovering from being over-hyped early on and subsequently failing to meet expectations. Like RBD, I think management provide excellent, unbiased information - but in BGR's case, this information says "earnings growth", while RBD says "static". So I choose BGR...

thereslifeafter87
13-01-2006, 01:30 PM
quote:Originally posted by Snoopy


quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

This discussion has become increasingly theoretical and divorced from reality. Snoopy's entire argument relies on RBD and BGR stock prices not dropping any further and on dividends being maintained at the current rate. It is a complete farce to base a "competition" on the projection of such assumptions 5 years into the future.


I'll agree with you on one thing Phaedrus. No human being (or dog) knows exactly what will happen in the future. However, that doesn't mean it is impossible to make a reasonable educated guess, based on the fundamental information we have around us. Given that RBD and BGR have ended up more or less exactly where they started 2-3 years ago, what do *you* think is most likely to happen:

1/ RBD/BGR will move into 'growth mode' and the share price of both will move inexorably upwards.
2/ RBD/BGR will gradually lose credibility with customers and both companies will end up slowly sinking to oblivion.
3/ RBD and BGR will 'bumble on' much as they are doing now with a flat share price and steady dividends.

I believe the most likely scenario is /3/. Do you or anyone else disagree, and if so why?

But even though I *expect* /3/, that *doesn't mean* I dismiss /1/ and /2/. I simply assign those two scenarios a low probability. Admittedly in 'real life' (not in a competition) I wouldn't assume /3/ will continue indefinitely. It might be that /1/ or /2/ suddenly becomes more likely and that might cause me to change my 'buy and hold' behaviour. I would reassess the probabilities of scenarios of /1/, /2/ and /3/ on a six monthly or annual basis.

SNOOPY





Why settle for (3) when you could buy a company that would be under option (1)?

RBD is terribly managed. Have you ever been to a KFC drive-thru or counter and seen how the place is run internally?

Their systems are atrocious, they have a deep frier that lets out an ear-piercing beep when the fries are done (good for not overcooking your fries, not so great when you're trying to eat and have a conversation), and the premises are generally scungy.

That said it's not going to fade into oblivion, because lots of people just feel like having KFC now and then.

But still, why not buy a better company? Or buy something with a fixed interest return? That's basically all you're getting from your RBD dividends.

Lizard
19-01-2006, 03:37 PM
The glacial uptrend didn't last and back to where I started in August...but it may be looking to have another go. Hope this means Christmas sales were good. I'm sticking with what I wrote on this thread in August re FY profit predictions and valuation.

Took 3 cent dividend while waiting, so I'm sitting on term deposit returns at the moment..

Lizard
07-02-2006, 08:43 AM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Okay PT. A few figures to give you some ammo against me for later!:)

Estimating HY profit from the sales data is extremely difficult because despite positive comments on gross margins, it was mostly the ballooning of indirect costs that pulled profits back last year (FY was up on both revenue and gross margin, but NPAT down). So, making several assumptions, including the fact that indirect costs only grew by 5%, I would estimate HY NPAT at $10-$11m. This would bring the rolling 12mth NPAT to $22-$23m, or 10.3-10.8cps (still less than 03/04 year, but I don't think the market will care). Takes P/E to 12.3-12.9 (at $1.33). Now I am rashly going to assume that because they have at least 21cps in cash and FCF is usually well above NPAT, they can afford to cheer up shareholders with an extra 1cps dividend (total 8cps) - i.e. gross yield of 9.0%.

So technically, my base case valuation is $1.47 plus 21cps cash, total $1.68. Still not exciting, but hopeful of possible upside and the yield is nice in the "pipe and slippers" portfolio.

PDYOR


Fourth quarter sales figures now out and BGR agree with analyst estimates for FY NPAT of $23-$25m. A 5cps final dividend (or better) looks fairly certain, so BGR is going to look quite cheap at $1.34, with P/E probably below 12 and gross yield around 9%.

Growth slowed to around 5% in the second half and margins may have eased back (my guess to around 34.5%). While I think BGR shares should recover to $1.47 - $1.60, I'm not sure whether there is much beyond that for the next two years. Will need to see either corporate costs contained or, preferably, an appropriate acquisition. I suspect BGR will wait for a bigger squeeze on retail to produce better buying opportunities, so there could be another lull in profit growth.

winner69
17-03-2006, 10:24 AM
Whatever one thinks of Briscoes you would have to say that last years result is a bloody good one .... even better than Lizard thought it would be

If you believe some we are already in a recession so things appear to be holding up well at Briscoes

Now the ravages of prie deflation are behind them and they have 'adjsuted' their business model accordingly it is hard to see any major surprises over the next few years.

Lizard said 134 would look cheap ... probably is after this result.

And will Rod ever make a acquisition ... cash nearly $50M !!!!!

In some respects it is a pity the post IPO hype pushed the share price close to 300 ... BRG have had to live with the negative sentiment ever since delivering what never really could be delivered from what is essentially a good solid retailer which has it's place in the market and as such steady performance is all that can be expected.

Lizard ..... 200 this time next year ... or is that just too much

Lizard
18-03-2006, 02:10 PM
Hi Winner. I thought the margins were impressive and the result good. It is hard to see them pushing margins any higher from here though, so really need to see sales grow a bit faster - preferably faster than corporate overheads seem to grow!

I agree that BGR really incurred a lot of bad sentiment from the fall of an over-hyped share price. I think the key to this result will be in turning around some of this sentiment - which could potentially ease it up to $1.50-$1.60. Where to after that will depend on quarterly reports as to sales growth.

If they're not going to use the $50m cash, then maybe they could up the dividend payout ratio - one way or the other, this cash remains a key potential driver for share price appreciation.

Lizard
09-05-2006, 09:06 AM
First quarter sales results out and looking healthy, with a 10.5% increase over prior year. Margins are up on last year 1st quarter - though that is not necessarily an increase over last year as a whole, given margins improved as the 05/06 year went on. Have upped my forecasts for 2007 to NPAT of $27.3m, which (at yesterdays price of $1.43) is a forward P/E of 11.0. Year end price target of $1.65 - $1.70.

scamper
09-05-2006, 09:49 AM
Well done, O Great Lizard! :)
your old prediction of 147 is currently bang-on target.
i appreciate your quiet number-crunching
scamper holds, but is still in the red...[:I]

Lizard
10-05-2006, 10:40 AM
Hi Scamper. Garnering a bit more interest today. Bid $1.53, offer $1.59 - maybe the analysts just rolled out their updated numbers to clients? Nice to hear Rod Duke sounding upbeat on National Radio too . Hard to believe the local Briscoes is sited pretty much right alongside Postie Plus and the Warehouse - listening to Rod, you'd think they were operating in a different country. :)

Phaedrus
10-05-2006, 12:00 PM
BGR is currently at $1.52. If it closes at around this figure it will have broken out of the trading range that it has been in for the last 2 years. (Giving another Buy signal)

Notice how, over the 2 years when BGR went nowhere, the OBV continued to climb. The stock was being accumulated, not distributed. The fact that the breakout was upward (rather than downward) should therefore come as no surprise.

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-2/1151662/BGR510001.gif

Lizard
10-05-2006, 04:58 PM
A nice finish. Glad to see we can agree on BGR at last Phaedrus! Fortunately, at today's closing price, I'm still up 27% (incl dividends) on my purchase in August last year, so hasn't been a total sluggard.

Lizard
02-08-2006, 08:35 AM
Second quarter sales and margins continue the upward trend, despite all predictions of a sluggish retail outlook. Revenue up 8.4% and profit for half year expected to be "satisfactorily ahead" of last year. I estimate it will come in at $11.9-$12.4m (last year $10.2m). Plenty of cash available for the Urban Loft roll-out, so I think they can afford to up the dividend to at least 3.25cps. My current valuation is $1.66.

Lizard
03-08-2006, 11:45 AM
I see Forbar took yesterdays sales data as positive too - they increased their valuation by 20cps to $1.75...:)

redzone
03-08-2006, 11:56 AM
yea ask forbar about FTX

Gryffyn
03-08-2006, 02:46 PM
Good work by BGR management (finally) but do people really want to buy into a retail share right now chart or no chart?

Lizard
03-08-2006, 03:44 PM
Gryffyn, nobody wants to know about retail at the moment. Despite this, I have made near on 29% (incl divs) from buying this boring share exactly one year ago today (as posted on this thread). Even better, you could have bought it for the same price in January this year.

If the retail slowdown bites harder, it may be time to exit shortly. If it doesn't then analysts will start to add in higher forward growth and margin assumptions and then it will start to look very cheap.

On the positive side, the Urban Loft concept may still be successful and a retail slowdown could be a great opportunity to obtain prime locations as it rolls out.

Gryffyn
03-08-2006, 04:25 PM
Good work Lizard. Do you expect those returns to continue? If not bank your profits. Always manage your holdings and preserve capital. You've done well but perhaps there are better options out there now?

Disc: no BGR anymore

Lizard
03-08-2006, 05:30 PM
Thanks Gryffyn. My FA based exit plan consists of making an exit when the sp approaches a 20% premium to my valuation OR my valuation plateaus and/or falls. (Valuations should increase in line with discount factor).

My TA exit plan is the back-stop if the price starts to slide below the 100 day EMA.

The extent of a retail slowdown might be moderated by more money under "working for families" which has seen a substantial increase in income for many of Briscoes target market. At least for a short while.

Gryffyn
03-08-2006, 06:18 PM
Good to see strategies - you'll get the MacDunk award for sure.

WFF money will be absorbed by petrol, rates and the maintenance of high interest rates I'm afraid.

BRICKS
03-08-2006, 06:36 PM
BGR has stated it wants to go up market type stores, But SMITHS CITY GROUP are all ready THERE.. ,, What about a MERGER.. [8D]

Lizard
09-09-2006, 11:09 AM
Phaedrus, I would like to see your latest chart on this one please. To me, it reads as after threatening a trend break, the up trend continues, but on second look, wonder if you would have read the recent dip as a trend break? Thanks, Liz

Phaedrus
09-09-2006, 01:47 PM
Yes Liz, there was a trendline break on 17/8/06 The SMA60 was broken at the same time - marked by red dots on the chart below. BGR remains in an uptrend though - it would need to break below $1.52 to begin a downtrend.
Trendlines are of course separate from trends - they can be broken before or after the trend changes. They can occur with or without a change of trend. An uptrend often just needs to ease off a little for the trendline to be broken. This happened recently with CEN, too, for example.
We should not be surprised at this easing of the uptrend - this has been signalled for 3 - 4 months by the flat 'On Balance Volume'. Take a look though at the other 2 indicators plotted here. See how neither has signalled a Sell yet. A Trailing Stop fitted to skim just below the May low has not been broken either, so the retracement is not as big as previous ones. I would be disinclined to use this trailing stop as an exit though. A drop below the support at $1.52 would give a more logical and more timely exit signal for those that have chosen not to act on the trendline break alone. The 2 oscillators plotted here will also provide exit signals, sooner or later.
Confused by too many alternatives? Sell down a proportion of your holding as each individual indicator signals an exit. Sell the lot regardless on any Close below $1.52.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/BGR99001.gif

Lizard
09-09-2006, 04:51 PM
Thanks Phaedrus. I hold BGR in the long term portfolio. Fundamentally, I think it is a sound investment. However, am aware that retail can be more vulnerable in an economic slowdown and that a significant deterioration could result in unnecessary pain for holders over a year or two. I am not Snoopy, so unwilling to hold at whatever cost... Your advice makes good sense.

scamper
11-09-2006, 09:35 AM
O WOE!
a nasty square from PHOTOBUCKET says: this image or video has been moved or deleted!
and it refers to Phaedrus' chart.
any ideas bout how to get photobucket to mind its own business?

Phaedrus
11-09-2006, 10:45 AM
It's worse than you think - ALL my charts on Photobucket have been deleted!!!!

Somehow someone has been able to access my Techemail account, used this to ask Photobucket for a password reminder, then when that was received, used it to logon to Photobucket - and deleted all my charts.

I thought it was odd when I got an email from Photobucket support telling me my password - when I hadn't requested it.

Luckily I had spread my charts across several websites, so they are not all lost.

warthog
13-09-2006, 07:30 AM
Phaedrus tells me that he is no longer able to log-on to ShareTrader.

He will be back when he has this sorted out.

Snow Leopard
13-09-2006, 08:08 AM
quote:Originally posted by warthog

Phaedrus tells me that he is no longer able to log-on to ShareTrader.

He will be back when he has this sorted out.

I see his account is locked. I guess this results from having his email account hacked.

warthog
13-09-2006, 09:01 AM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by warthog

Phaedrus tells me that he is no longer able to log-on to ShareTrader.

He will be back when he has this sorted out.

I see his account is locked. I guess this results from having his email account hacked.


No.

How can you see that an account is locked?

Snow Leopard
13-09-2006, 09:07 AM
seek and thee shall find (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/members.asp?mode=search&M_NAME=Phaedrus&initial=1)

Phaedrus
14-09-2006, 08:03 AM
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/BGR914001.gif
There. Back again. Older, sadder, wiser, more paranoid.

Lizard
14-09-2006, 12:21 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Second quarter sales and margins continue the upward trend, despite all predictions of a sluggish retail outlook. Revenue up 8.4% and profit for half year expected to be "satisfactorily ahead" of last year. I estimate it will come in at $11.9-$12.4m (last year $10.2m). Plenty of cash available for the Urban Loft roll-out, so I think they can afford to up the dividend to at least 3.25cps. My current valuation is $1.66.


Half year profit of $12.01m, dividend increased by 0.5cps to 3.5cps. Some slight softening beginning to show in sales this half, so growth likely to be lower over FY.

I estimate FY NPAT of $28.8 - $29.4m, with total dividend 8cps. Gives forward P/E of 11.5-11.7 and net yield of 5.0% at current price of $1.60. Cash increased to $54m. My valuation edges up to $1.68, but will depend heavily on the extent of any slowdown shown in second half.

Lizard
16-11-2006, 04:57 PM
I came very close to selling this the other day at $1.61, as it looked like breaking uptrend. But looks like the retail sales figures have given it a new lease of life - now $1.71.

scamper
16-11-2006, 05:33 PM
I reckon that today's jump to 171 leaves the 161 just looking like a confirmation of the up trend.
o goody goody.
Like you Lizard, I came very close to selling recently -- had my flag set to sell if it closed below 160! [:p]
cheers, scamper.

gisborne_gold
14-02-2007, 10:39 PM
This last few weeks' drop from 180 to 170: a pause in growth or the start of a tumble?

scamper
15-02-2007, 12:58 PM
certainly a pause, and possibly a tumble. the chart is beginning to look a bit crook if strict trendlines are followed.

accordingly, i sold half of mine last week at 176, but i think the blip will be temporary, so am happy to hold the rest unless the 30-day MA dips below the 90-day MA.

the 30-day is already dipping, and the share has had a stellar run for the last 12 months, so at some time soon i may be wishing that i'd sold the lot! interesting times. cheers.

Dr_Who
09-06-2008, 10:50 AM
Looks like Jane Cameron is looking at taking on BGR with the purchase of Arbuckles stores from PPG.

Bad retail market + a new formidable competitor = ouch!

Footsie
09-06-2008, 07:56 PM
She must be nuts!

why doesn't she just retire!!

and for goodness sake Arbuckles!!!

not a touch on kathmandu.

Dr_Who
10-06-2008, 11:47 AM
She must be nuts!

why doesn't she just retire!!

and for goodness sake Arbuckles!!!

not a touch on kathmandu.


I think she is onto a winner here. There are no real competitors in the BGR's market, thats why they have had is too easy for too long. Most goods at BGR are crap and the store layout is just as good as WHS.

From what I have seen so far from JC's stores, it is very trendy and the products are very nice. This will be interesting when she uses the Arb's stores to expend her household goods stores.

Sideshow Bob
10-06-2008, 05:50 PM
How are her NOOD stores going? One in Dunedin I've been into once, put not really in a great postion (although cheap rent I guess)

Steve
11-06-2008, 07:47 PM
How are her NOOD stores going? One in Dunedin I've been into once, put not really in a great postion (although cheap rent I guess)

Been into Dunedin & Nelson stores and found them to be over-priced with very few customers...

Lizard
20-01-2010, 10:28 AM
BGR on the move again - probably anticipating a good quarterly report in a couple of weeks time.

From what I've seen of analyst reports, I think they are being overly conservative on the level of corporate costs for BGR second-half and good chance of a surprise to the upside.

Lizard
05-02-2010, 08:06 AM
BGR on the move again - probably anticipating a good quarterly report in a couple of weeks time.

From what I've seen of analyst reports, I think they are being overly conservative on the level of corporate costs for BGR second-half and good chance of a surprise to the upside.

I note that at least one broker upgraded their forecast a week after I wrote that - pegging them at $20.1m NPAT (I had $20.5m). Seems the quarterly out today might not surprise everybody, but still a solid result.

percy
05-02-2010, 09:50 AM
Lizard.
well done. An outstanding result.

JeremyALD
06-05-2018, 05:19 PM
Quite late for a Q1 update this year. Not sure they'll be great results. Will be interesting.

Filthy
07-05-2018, 06:53 AM
Q1 was released on the 9th last year, so could be today, tomorrow or wed

Filthy
07-05-2018, 10:24 AM
Q1 just released

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/317648