Hi Ho "SILVER"

[JBmurc]

$26.70oz USD kitco is the set price for a new 2011 bet I have with SKOL the prize a round about $100 bottle of wine of the losers choosing(skol a reds fine by me)

Will the Silver price crash back to the teens by the end of 2011

IMHO no Silver will be much higher my prediction over $40oz USD

Well worth a read --
http://www.industrymailout.com/Industry/View.aspx?id=245442&q=264546678&qz=3f9465

[Skol]

Lower.

JB's rationale is that we're running out of silver. I doubt it.

It's herd instinct, along with a lot other codswallop about gold/silver ratios etc. When gold goes south, silver's going with it.

Why is silver going up? Because for some reason lots of people are buying it, it's that simple.

[JBmurc]

Lower.

JB's rationale is that we're running out of silver. I doubt it.

It's herd instinct, along with a lot other codswallop about gold/silver ratios etc. When gold goes south, silver's going with it.

Why is silver going up? Because for some reason lots of people are buying it, it's that simple.

well we will see won't we SKOL you tracked down any Quality bottle of wine I don't mind a good red not long to go now

[shasta]

$26.70oz USD kitco is the set price for a new 2011 bet I have with SKOL the prize a round about $100 bottle of wine of the losers choosing(skol a reds fine by me)

Will the Silver price crash back to the teens by the end of 2011

IMHO no Silver will be much higher my prediction over $40oz USD

Well worth a read --
http://www.industrymailout.com/Industry/View.aspx?id=245442&q=264546678&qz=3f9465

Im with you JBMurc

I reckon silver will trade between $US30 - 35/oz during the 1st half of 2011, & in the $US35 - 40/oz during the 2nd half, likely to hit 40+ towards the end of the year

We still have another 7 months of the US $600B injection ($75B per month over 8 months) to keep precious metals ticking along, though i do expect Gold to be more volatile dropping back below $US1400/oz by the end of 2011.

Certainly favour Silver to outperform Gold during 2011

[JBmurc]

yeah till the Gold Silver ratio is back in the teens Silver will well outperform Gold IMHO

Watchout for ARD 2011/12 confindent it will reward massively the most undervalued Silver play going IMHO

[shasta]

yeah till the Gold Silver ratio is back in the teens Silver will well outperform Gold IMHO

Watchout for ARD 2011/12 confindent it will reward massively the most undervalued Silver play going IMHO

Ive been looking at CCU, AYN, ARD & SVL

CCU looks a good bet for late 2011 production & with lead credits could have costs as low as $A6/oz. (see recent presentation)

The capital raising AYN did @ 3.5c is at a fairly deep discount to the current market price 4.7c, & may suppress the share price for a while as holders sell now & buy the cheap rights, & when the total raising is done (in two tranches, to get around ASX rules) they will have approx 1b shares on issue...

While i'll stick by AYN for the ASX comp, ARD probably offers better value, but CCU interests me too

[macduffy]

Silver more vulnerable to a correction than gold?

Personally, I doubt it but here's a contrary view.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=CDB5B542-D2C4-6376-02355EB8FFC0E4D7

[JBmurc]

Yeah think ARD will fully diluted have round 130mill shares that's with all the ARDO opts ex and USN deleting their shares + 13mill cap raising to investors
(ARD holders will early next year be given many free USN shares)

ARD have round a 22moz Silver resource(which is open at depth and direction) with many tens thousands tons of Lead,zinc and a smaller resource of gold,copper made up in their Kemfield/Sunny corner assets (50% owned 200k more spend will lift to KF 70% GCR likely to sell all interests next year)the Silver grades aren't SVL high but with the extra metals involved DFS should show costs to be very low per oz Silver with the other metals credits

Cash wise -sept qtr ARD had 2.2mill at the bank -Cap raising will add another 2.1mill (opts ex june2011 6-7mill+)
In talking with Kerry it sounds like capex to get Kempfield into production could be done with half of the above cash at the bank think this is why the opts ex price will be lowered ARD just don't need to raise much more cash to get DFS/plant to production at 600mtpa extra cash could see 1mtpa plant on site at kempfield with sunny corner just down the road in NSW Silver belt

current market cap-15mill (19.5mill shares deleted will knock it down to round 11mill 48mill ardo 16c likely add 7mill+ to marketcap but all cash)

[JBmurc]

For along time there has been limits on Longs on silver but not Shorts could we see the likes of JP Morgan,HSBC who hold massive Silver shorts have to reduce there size of their shorts on new limits -

Class action--http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1293546686.php

I also see JP Morgan have very large shareholdings in many ASX miners they hold the biggest position in AYN silver explorer (so are they getting ready to close a good size of their 300moz+ silver shorts--)

Commodity Speculation Limits Divide CFTC With Dodd-Frank Deadline Looming

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-13/commodity-speculation-limits-divide-cftc-with-dodd-frank-deadline-looming.html

[Skol]

WSJ the other day said silver was extremely vulnerable , reasons being it's a pretty thin trade and only $19b worldwide, compared with golds $170b.

[Skol]

Silver is underperforming gold at the moment - in a falling market.

[JBmurc]

Silver is underperforming gold at the moment - in a falling market.

$29.37oz 46.8:1 Silver to Gold ratio looks like Silver is keepin more than up with Gold
I see the USD down again get used to that

[macduffy]

Not exactly Silver v USD but an interesting article from the Bull on global silver stocks.

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/17438-searching-for-global-silver-stocks.html

[JBmurc]

Not exactly Silver v USD but an interesting article from the Bull on global silver stocks.

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/17438-searching-for-global-silver-stocks.html

Yeah good read is very bullish on silver production increasing has been a very long time since silver production was more than demand think it's round 200moz short at present times...

here's some good reading FOR THE SILVER BULLS-https://marketforceanalysis.com/article/latest_article_02511.html

"News out of China recently showed that China's net imports of silver quadrupled in 2010 to 3,500 tonnes (112 Million ozs). China has traditionally been a silver exporter. For example, in 2005 China made net exports of 3,000 tonnes of silver"

[JBmurc]

halfway through they talk about Silver backwardization

http://www.youtube.com/user/MaxKeiserTV#p/f/1/41dSuyRrj6w

[Skol]

It's a myth there's a shortage of silver.

World production in 2009 was up 4% on the previous year at 710,000,000 oz and the 7th straight annual increase.

[stevo1]

It's a myth there's a shortage of silver.

World production in 2009 was up 4% on the previous year at 710,000,000 oz and the 7th straight annual increase.

" After the worst January for precious metals in two decades, investors still have a $102 billion bet on higher prices, hoarding more gold than all but four central banks and more silver than the U.S. can mine in almost 12 years. "


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-07/investors-102-billion-precious-metals-wager-showing-bull-market-intact.html

[Skol]

" After the worst January for precious metals in two decades, investors still have a $102 billion bet on higher prices, hoarding more gold than all but four central banks and more silver than the U.S. can mine in almost 12 years. "


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-07/investors-102-billion-precious-metals-wager-showing-bull-market-intact.html

Hoarding is different from a shortage. Record amounts of gold and silver have been mined and last year more gold was mined than in recorded history.

When the hoarding stops the price will descend, probably nearly vertically.

[denpal]

It's a myth there's a shortage of silver.

World production in 2009 was up 4% on the previous year at 710,000,000 oz and the 7th straight annual increase.

Demand is increasing, not just supply.

[Skol]

Demand is increasing, not just supply.


Correct, not industrial demand, 'hoarding' demand. You don't need to be Albert Einstein to work out what's gonna happen when it comes on the market. Like when the ETF's start unloading.

[macduffy]

From Share Cafe.

Solar panels to support demand for silver.

http://www.sharecafe.com.au/fnarena_news.asp?a=AV&ai=19280

[Skol]

Maybe someone can kindly help me out. I have been going through some of my elderly mother's things and there's 2 kg's of silver in her safe.

2 ingots of about a kg each with a MG inside an oval. They both have 999 stamped on them with another number, maybe a serial number. One is 880, the other is 906.

Has the weight stamped and looks like the letters W&H stamped inside a pennant.

[macduffy]

The W&H inside the pennant is the mark of Walker and Hall, silversmiths and jewellery retailers.

I won't hazard a guess on the other clues!

[Skol]

The W&H inside the pennant is the mark of Walker and Hall, silversmiths and jewellery retailers.

I won't hazard a guess on the other clues!

Thanks, appreciate it.

[Phaedrus]

MG in an oval is the mark of the Sydney refiners Matthey Garrett Pty Ltd (now Johnson Matthey Limited).

999 is the assayed purity level.

When to sell - that's the question eh Skol?

With silver currently at about $31, let's hope your poor old Mum didn't buy it back in 1980 at $48 - that's well over $120 in today's money!

[trackers]

I was salivating over silver futures (NYMEX:SI) at IB when they were $27 about a week ago? 5000:1 leverage...So tasty

[Skol]

MG in an oval is the mark of the Sydney refiners Matthey Garrett Pty Ltd (now Johnson Matthey Limited).

999 is the assayed purity level.

When to sell - that's the question eh Skol?

With silver currently at about $31, let's hope your poor old Mum didn't buy it back in 1980 at $48 - that's well over $120 in today's money!

Hi Phaedrus, thanks a lot. Don't know when she acquired the silver, yeah, when to sell, that's the question. Moving to take over my mother's financial affairs, have Power of Attorney, a new experience for me.

[hal]

Hi Phaedrus, thanks a lot. Don't know when she acquired the silver, yeah, when to sell, that's the question. Moving to take over my mother's financial affairs, have Power of Attorney, a new experience for me.

Skol

Silver appears to be in an uptrend although I am not a chartist as such so maybe somebody who is could give you their current thinking

[miner]

It all makes sense now Skol is a silver hoarder who has been down ramping it so as he can buy more at a cheaper price before it goes through the roof.

[Skol]

It all makes sense now Skol is a silver hoarder who has been down ramping it so as he can buy more at a cheaper price before it goes through the roof.

haha, will probably sell it and do my bit to send the POS down.

[skid]

Skol If you dont sell immediately I doubt you will ever be able to live it down

[hal]

MG in an oval is the mark of the Sydney refiners Matthey Garrett Pty Ltd (now Johnson Matthey Limited).

999 is the assayed purity level.

When to sell - that's the question eh Skol?

With silver currently at about $31, let's hope your poor old Mum didn't buy it back in 1980 at $48 - that's well over $120 in today's money!

excellent return over the last 10 years though

[elZorro]

Skol, you would be getting a hard time if the sadness of the situation wasn't obvious, trust all will work out OK.

Remember silver/gold is a worthless investment, it must have cost a fortune to store etc,
But there it is in the safe, a family valuable, with intriguing possibilities. What if JB is right? you'll need to see this silver through.

[stevo1]

Maybe someone can kindly help me out. I have been going through some of my elderly mother's things and there's 2 kg's of silver in her safe.

2 ingots of about a kg each with a MG inside an oval. They both have 999 stamped on them with another number, maybe a serial number. One is 880, the other is 906.

Has the weight stamped and looks like the letters W&H stamped inside a pennant.

Thank God it wasnt that horrible golden metal skoly.
Then you would have thousands and thousands more problems.
Good ole mum did you ever listen to her advice?

[Skol]

I just wanna get rid of this stuff before it's back to inflation adjusted price.

[shasta]

I just wanna get rid of this stuff before it's back to inflation adjusted price.

I reckon Skol wants to divest from silver to buy gold ;)

[stevo1]

Posting this here and on the gold thread,
TA people may find it interesting i am SHOCKED by it and the possible future consequences not only for precious metals .
http://www.businessinsider.com/charts-debt-unemployment--2011-2#

[OutToLunch]

The data in those plots need to be indexed (CPI, per capita, etc). Plotting that sort of data on a linear scale is always going to look scary.

[JBmurc]

Maybe someone can kindly help me out. I have been going through some of my elderly mother's things and there's 2 kg's of silver in her safe.

2 ingots of about a kg each with a MG inside an oval. They both have 999 stamped on them with another number, maybe a serial number. One is 880, the other is 906.

Has the weight stamped and looks like the letters W&H stamped inside a pennant.

well as you don't like silver I'll give ya 2k for them thats why more than their worth hey skol stupid old useless silver who need that useless metal

[hal]

well as you don't like silver I'll give ya 2k for them thats why more than their worth hey skol stupid old useless silver who need that useless metal

Are there any chartists who can post a 6 or 12 month chart on silver at the moment.

Thanks in advance

[stevo1]

I just wanna get rid of this stuff before it's back to inflation adjusted price.

Skol more bad news silver hits 31yr high dragging up gold.sell it now before it goes higher

[Skol]

Skol more bad news silver hits 31yr high dragging up gold.sell it now before it goes higher

Yeah, I'll dump it and add to my PDN shares maybe, uranium, something useful.

[JBmurc]

Yeah, I'll dump it and add to my PDN shares maybe, uranium, something useful.

Dump it you mean you will list it for sale on trade me etc and watch some savy investors bid upwards to free market value as which time you will recieve some fiat for your precious metal

[denpal]

Silver $33.36 tonight, will look very good if it can hold $31 support.

[JBmurc]

Silver $33.36 tonight, will look very good if it can hold $31 support.

IMHO it's broken free once again like it did at $21 so won't be surprised to see it go from 31 to 40 before the end of March then retrace back to the mid to high 30's before once again treading higher Silver has to at least go another $30-$40 to reach a true value to gold(and thats with gold holding 1400 level)

[shasta]

IMHO it's broken free once again like it did at $21 so won't be surprised to see it go from 31 to 40 before the end of March then retrace back to the mid to high 30's before once again treading higher Silver has to at least go another $30-$40 to reach a true value to gold(and thats with gold holding 1400 level)

Gotta be happy with your AYN ;)

Up 10% today to 5.4c

[JBmurc]

Gotta be happy with your AYN ;)

Up 10% today to 5.4c

yeah very happy brought like 400k at just over 4c then after more study and with the fool sellers pushing below 4c I brought another 235k (could have afforded another 600k but decided to buy more NAV instead--in hindsight.....)

want you reckon of HLX shasta I see they like the last few months have gone down further on low volume still holding a few but like my NAV,ARV don't seem to at all be liked by the market and are all well undervalued to there peers

[shasta]

yeah very happy brought like 400k at just over 4c then after more study and with the fool sellers pushing below 4c I brought another 235k (could have afforded another 600k but decided to buy more NAV instead--in hindsight.....)

want you reckon of HLX shasta I see they like the last few months have gone down further on low volume still holding a few but like my NAV,ARV don't seem to at all be liked by the market and are all well undervalued to there peers

Silver looking good & travelling pretty much as you & i have been saying it would for a while now!

I'd like HLX alot more if the Iron Ore JV partners all kissed & made up, almost better off HLX selling there share & using the funds to develop there Gold & Copper interests given the curent Gold & Copper prices.

The market cap is easily justified by either the 800k/oz Au, or 18,000t Cu resources, even without the Iron Ore, so the market will catch on again eventually!

I still really like the MOX story (no real silver though), decent Copper/Gold project in South Australia with one of the 10 largest Copper producers in the world as JV partner, & a decent Iron Ore/Manganese project with OMH as JV partner, again in South Australia + other bits & pieces, small cap with cash & shares (MEU)

[JBmurc]

yeah very good will look into MOX have a good chunk of funds to invest so may end up with a few

Silver out paced Gold once again ratio down to 41.49--- high 30's soon(in both price and ratio)

[Xerof]

borrowed from the other channel:


silver lease rates skyrocketing

For those of you who are listening to the pundits on TV suggesting that there is plenty of silver, please take a look at the exploding silver lease rates:

all lease rates above 1%. take a close look at the 30 day lease rate where it registers 1.2% and it is higher than the 60 and 6 months and 1 yr lease rate. What does this mean? Simple!!! there is no silver at any vault.
When you have the lease rate at 1% and investment rate at .1% per annum, you are automatically in backwardation by a full .9% per annum. I smell trouble ahead.

As far as i can see, there is no silver available anywhere!!



Skol's mum has the market cornered........

[CAM]

This from Jason Hommels latest .. if correct might see some short term upward price pressure.

As I write on Sunday evening, Feb. 20th, silver prices are up another 40 cents to $33.10, another 30 year high, going back to the previous high of $50 from Jan. 1980. In the last two trading days, last Thursday and Friday, silver prices increased about a dollar per day.

What's going on?
As I read on the blogs, about 53,000 silver contracts for 5000 oz. each are nearing the first delivery day on Feb. 28th. At that time, each contract must be fully funded to await delivery in the following 30 days, or sold before then. By the way, 53k x 5k = 265 million oz.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/wow.html (http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=lyiszpbab&et=1104600529951&s=165255&e=001Wge_onLSqrUkuhwbVo6K1HSDPe00qITilVyWS-R_Gd0tBbrtfcfPSSw1h9O6zva_cuGWYBzypfgBhrVLwleQT9va vAHK8aXvGobbwZUohPjAhZgkSD8xR9gVpsBT41uIDHJjB3WZlg 2gT9-ZYuxfxogTjOnt8cFU)
The crazy thing is that the four COMEX approved warehouses have only about 100 million oz. of silver in them. So, in essence, a default looms.
Will this be it? If so, what will happen?
Usually, all but a very few contracts roll over to the next months. The futures contract holders rarely stand for delivery, as in their view it is too difficult, and too costly; they are in this game for the leverage. They usually only put down 10% of the money, so that if silver gains another 10% in price, they double their investment quickly. And if silver moves down 10%, they lose everything!
But here's the kicker. COMEX just raised margin requirements 50% on Friday, meaning that the longs had to put up something probably like 15% instead of the usual 10%. (I have no idea of the real figures, as I have never traded futures, I have never had a futures broker, and don't know where to go for that data.) This means that the longs were not scared out of their positions, as the silver price went up, not down, as the manipulators had intended.
What I do know is that usually, the majority of futures contracts stand about 3 months away from delivery. But not now.
Tonight, 53,000 contracts are looming for either close out, or they will stand for delivery. Out of about 150,000 to 200,000 contracts!
Harvey says 150,000 contracts in open interest.
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/ (http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=lyiszpbab&et=1104600529951&s=165255&e=001Wge_onLSqrUCiALe-PRQdRkAz5Kz8dVb38kVs1H1dnxoq7bA0eQfP_WAAIaLE76Mmrq Bq61xcASRP4hfFA2IHl4R3II-0JBTukbv4uDdL9aM7w7KnQPPFAGrdOZchiyI) 321gold.com says 200,000 contracts in open interest.
http://www.321gold.com/cot_silver.html (http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=lyiszpbab&et=1104600529951&s=165255&e=001Wge_onLSqrWkeLJa91grV1GG9wXdCkEQdRLF4Ls_Y3chE BBvcFDOtEKbzvtulKiiuv5vu9u2F3_VshC-s3zZVyzvKkMfoQKz3BKYuSHCVIRC4kFiiiWY7E7Hpv5r66s6sO vqghUh3h0=)

The current situation will be resolved in 8 days, and again, in another 30 days after that. Both deadlines are worth watching closely.

[JBmurc]

yeah the big silver shorters(Jp Morgan,HSBC,BOA) must be losing muti-millions holding there bad positions now if they ever reduce or close Silver will go ballistic I see JP Morgan hold a major holding in AYN

[JBmurc]

Brought some CLU today no real seller bout 50k at 8c about till I brought 250k at 8c then bamm another 99k 7.9c & 95k 8c so looks like if you want on board it wouldn't be hard to get a few with the 6c placement likely to sell a few for a quick buck...
Am confident the mexican assets will reward with high grade wide Silver drill results and in turn market interest

[drillfix]

JB,

Dont you mean GLOBAL RESOURCE CORPORATION?

New trading symbol will be GRM and commence trading on Wed, 2nd March 2011.

[shasta]

JB,

Dont you mean GLOBAL RESOURCE CORPORATION?

New trading symbol will be GRM and commence trading on Wed, 2nd March 2011.


CLU will become GRM, thanks for picking up on this Drilly, i keep refering to CLU which probably isnt helping others!

[JBmurc]

JB,

Dont you mean GLOBAL RESOURCE CORPORATION?

New trading symbol will be GRM and commence trading on Wed, 2nd March 2011.

yes to right drilly I see 360k on offer at 7.8c on close --had a bid at 7.8 the other day no sellers keen--looking forward to the drill results.....
• A drilling programme has commenced at Espiritu Santo and at the time of writing remains in progress.

shasta you should throw up a thread as you come across them first...if not I will when I get back from work wed-thurs.....remember reading a report on Mexico large silver resources having a major part in the future of silver production

[shasta]

yes to right drilly I see 360k on offer at 7.8c on close --had a bid at 7.8 the other day no sellers keen--looking forward to the drill results.....
• A drilling programme has commenced at Espiritu Santo and at the time of writing remains in progress.

shasta you should throw up a thread as you come across them first...if not I will when I get back from work wed-thurs.....remember reading a report on Mexico large silver resources having a major part in the future of silver production

I'll let you run with it, once ya finished buying of course :)

[drillfix]

yes to right drilly I see 360k on offer at 7.8c on close --had a bid at 7.8 the other day no sellers keen--looking forward to the drill results.....
• A drilling programme has commenced at Espiritu Santo and at the time of writing remains in progress.

shasta you should throw up a thread as you come across them first...if not I will when I get back from work wed-thurs.....remember reading a report on Mexico large silver resources having a major part in the future of silver production

Looks like somebody is selling due to 20+ million of shares at 6c placement just hitting the 3B ann today.

I guess easy after the dust settles this will march back would think?

Got an order filled @ 7c but someone dumped down to 6.6c

Ah well, not far off the mark, Williams %R starting to become oversold but RSI and OB falling so either a great buying opportunity or some more punishment looking at the 60 min chart, so this is gonna need some news to stay a float in the short term.

Dont forget, name change tomorrow folks (for those watching this stock)

[Skol]

yeah the big silver shorters(Jp Morgan,HSBC,BOA) must be losing muti-millions holding there bad positions now if they ever reduce or close Silver will go ballistic I see JP Morgan hold a major holding in AYN

Been hearing that hackneyed worn out story for years. LOL

[drillfix]

Decided to bail out at 7.3c due to some other trades also coming through so had to off load.

Will revisit this one once some dust settles a bit.

[shasta]

Decided to bail out at 7.3c due to some other trades also coming through so had to off load.

Will revisit this one once some dust settles a bit.

Nice work, intraday high 7.4c & it closed 7.1c - been a greater perfomer the last month or so

[JBmurc]

Nice work, intraday high 7.4c & it closed 7.1c - been a greater perfomer the last month or so

to busy to keep an eye on GRM nasty first couple days holding still with my biggest holding in SSNO CFE,and AMU to re-open alot higher one day I don't really feel to bad about it also I see the depth is very gappy and the volume was only 500k the 24mill holds be stupid to sell out without decent buying depth after some good Silver drill results etc

[shasta]

to busy to keep an eye on GRM nasty first couple days holding still with my biggest holding in SSNO CFE,and AMU to re-open alot higher one day I don't really feel to bad about it also I see the depth is very gappy and the volume was only 500k the 24mill holds be stupid to sell out without decent buying depth after some good Silver drill results etc

Oops if Drilly was talking about CLU/GRM - my last post was re AYN

[JBmurc]

Oops if Drilly was talking about CLU/GRM - my last post was re AYN

yeah I worked that out a few seconds after the post ,,,,arrrgggg AYN

[drillfix]

Nice work, intraday high 7.4c & it closed 7.1c - been a greater perfomer the last month or so

Hey Shasta and JB,

As the new code GRM has come into effect today I thought I would dedicate that to a chart especially for you guys or anybody who else wishes to see a chart with the new code.

So far, the GMN daily: >>>> http://i51.tinypic.com/23ur3v5.png

quite easy to follow at present, ain't it :P


Hey folks, does anybody know what the previous 52 week high and low were from the previous CLU code?

[JBmurc]

Hey Shasta and JB,

As the new code GRM has come into effect today I thought I would dedicate that to a chart especially for you guys or anybody who else wishes to see a chart with the new code.

So far, the GMN daily: >>>> http://i51.tinypic.com/23ur3v5.png

quite easy to follow at present, ain't it :P


Hey folks, does anybody know what the previous 52 week high and low were from the previous CLU code?

3c--52 week low 10c high ---looks very good buying just above 6c(placement price)

[drillfix]

3c--52 week low 10c high ---looks very good buying just above 6c(placement price)

Thanks JB, seems like 6.2c is the hit zone if you want to get in.

I wonder i fits the same seller as the same buyer? Is that you JB? lol

Will see how the day pans out~!

[shasta]

Thanks JB, seems like 6.2c is the hit zone if you want to get in.

I wonder i fits the same seller as the same buyer? Is that you JB? lol

Will see how the day pans out~!

Another silver play, PEX has announced today some historical high grades in its permit, will do some more digging on it

[JBmurc]

Thanks JB, seems like 6.2c is the hit zone if you want to get in.

I wonder i fits the same seller as the same buyer? Is that you JB? lol

Will see how the day pans out~!

not yet hope it stays in the low 6's want to average down my stupid 8c buy(went perfectly with my stupid AYN sell 6c) some days I just shouldn't log on...esp when I have many things on at once sharetrading should be done in a relaxed state.......

[drillfix]

Another silver play, PEX has announced today some historical high grades in its permit, will do some more digging on it

Nice one Shasta, will take a lookie to see whats going on here.

Shasta, done a gun slinger trade and just bought PEX, will review later, so why not, if you HC can do it, I will try it too :P



not yet hope it stays in the low 6's want to average down my stupid 8c buy(went perfectly with my stupid AYN sell 6c) some days I just shouldn't log on...esp when I have many things on at once sharetrading should be done in a relaxed state.......

Oh dear JB, sometimes we find ourselves in reverse, but I am sure you have the capacity to rectify the situation or position.

[drillfix]

Well, besides the news today for PEK, the Volume spike today being over 10 x the normal volume was enough for me to dip my toes in.

As well as few issued shares as in only 80M + heads and 40M+ options there about.

Silver while there is carnage in the world cant be that bad of news surely?

[percy]

I predict tomorrow to be a good day for AYN. Why? It was mentioned on telly (Your Money Your Call on the Sky Business Channel, along with FML and ZRL) tonight, and the talking heads said it was going to 20c! So expect the Mums and Dads to pile on in - toot toot :-)

On a housekeeping note - can you put the share code in your comments so its clear what stock you are talking about, I'm having trouble following which one is currently under discussion. Ta.
AYN Thanks for that KW.May look to help out some Mums and Dads this afternoon should they get keen. VOC well done KW. I didn't follow this time.Trust it goes to $3 for you.

[JBmurc]

hopefully get my GRM fill today



How Much More Demand Can Silver Handle?
by Jeff Clark

The numbers for silver demand are starting to make some market-watchers nervous. The US Mint sold over 6.4 million silver Eagles in January, more than any other month since the coin's introduction in 1986. China's net imports of silver quadrupled in 2010, to 122.6 million ounces, roughly 13.7% of global production. Meanwhile, mine production can't meet worldwide demand; the only way demand gets fulfilled is from scrap supply.

That is some very hungry demand. Which raises the question, how long can this pace continue?

This question is important for various reasons, starting with how demand contributes to price. If demand falls off, silver investments would obviously suffer.

While I've discussed the concern regarding the lack of supply before, which has its own implications for the silver market, let's focus on investment demand. Frankly, is there room for it to continue to grow? After all, how long can investors continue to set records?

There are a number of ways to measure this - the amount of money available to invest, its percent of total financial assets, its contrast to demand in the last bull market, etc. - but I think the bottom line to answering the question is to compare the biggest silver investments to some popular equities. If they rival that of the stocks we always see on the news and analysts constantly talk about and every fund manager wants to own, then it might be reasonable to assume demand could be nearing its pinnacle.

So how do the world's largest silver ETF and one of the biggest silver producers compare to the more fashionable equities?


The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, has net assets of $9.6 billion (as of February 4). This pales in comparison to the more popular stocks trading in the US. In fact, SLV has roughly 3% the market cap of Apple. It would have to grow over 43 times to match Exxon Mobil.

Pan American Silver, the largest pure silver producer trading on a major US exchange, has a market cap of $3.72 billion. This is 4.7% the size of McDonald's. The market cap would have to increase more than 53 times to match Wal-Mart. It is over 62 times smaller than Microsoft.

This isn't to suggest SLV and PAAS will match the market cap of these other companies, but clearly the masses are still demanding much more of them than the biggest of silver's investment vehicles.

So how much more demand can silver handle? As much as it takes to make it the household name I'm convinced it will be before this is all over. When SLV is a favorite of fund managers. When Silver Wheaton is a market darling of the masses. When Pan American is Wall Street's top pick for the year.

Imagine what those bars on the right will look like when most everyone you know is talking about poor man's gold. The rise could be breathtaking.

Remember that silver rose over 3,646% from trough to peak in the last precious metals bull market; it's up about 630% in our current run. A return matching the 1970s advance would push the price to $152. This price level is further supported by the fact that this is about where it would be when inflation-adjusted for its 1980 peak.

When you look at the potential growth in market cap of the world's biggest silver investments, it becomes easy to view any downdraft in price as nothing but a buying opportunity. I know I do.

Regards,

Jeff Clark

[percy]

Re AYN: Or perhaps not ..... smart people may say that when its being promoted by housewives ringing in to a tv show, now is the time to sell LOL

Well I am still there with the Mums and Dads.

[shasta]

Nice one Shasta, will take a lookie to see whats going on here.

Shasta, done a gun slinger trade and just bought PEX, will review later, so why not, if you HC can do it, I will try it too :P




Oh dear JB, sometimes we find ourselves in reverse, but I am sure you have the capacity to rectify the situation or position.

On viewing PEX a little closer, i'm adding them to the low EV list, will start a thread in due course

You still holding Drilly?

[drillfix]

Hi Shasta,

Yeah mate, still holding, though I never got my fill the first time when I took out what was left at 8.3c, somebody (many) came along and bought it up to 9c and same today so guess I will be happy with whatever I am holding now.

Had to swap a few shares between accounts because one is not highly funded so sold to myself on BMG :P

Will hold PEX of course until I see some signs of weakness and of course until I read some of your findings which I will look forward too~!

[JBmurc]

Well be happier now I got another good 350k of GRM at 6.3c offers now 37k 6.8c 166k 7.4c big gaps will will be jumped come late march on hopefully good shallow high grade silver results...

going put up a thread

[drillfix]

Hey there JB,

Mate, a quick question if you dont mind.

Did you grab any PEX on their recent news or I see you like obtaining volume when you move into a stock.

If you never got any PEX is it because of the volume or because you only focus on one stock in this sector at a time?

Good to see you holding up the GRM ship, I may take a small position myself should funds permit.

[JBmurc]

Hey there JB,

Mate, a quick question if you dont mind.

Did you grab any PEX on their recent news or I see you like obtaining volume when you move into a stock.

If you never got any PEX is it because of the volume or because you only focus on one stock in this sector at a time?

Good to see you holding up the GRM ship, I may take a small position myself should funds permit.

No never looked into PEX most my free time today was focused on GRM and getting averaged down ( now 7c) before they annouce their Espiritu Santo drill results

[drillfix]

No never looked into PEX most my free time today was focused on GRM and getting averaged down ( now 7c) before they annouce their Espiritu Santo drill results

No worries there JB, if you get a chance take a look at the recent PEX announcement made yesterday regarding a new silver project.

To my untrained silver eye, it looks good, but dont know the quality of management and story behind any previous successes.

[JBmurc]

No worries there JB, if you get a chance take a look at the recent PEX announcement made yesterday regarding a new silver project.

To my untrained silver eye, it looks good, but dont know the quality of management and story behind any previous successes.

yeah will have a quick look tonight anything with Silver is worth alook IMHO

[shasta]

yeah will have a quick look tonight anything with Silver is worth alook IMHO

JBMurc/Drilly

I'll knockup a thread tonight for PEX, some more high grade silver, & its worth a heads up on

[drillfix]

Well be happier now I got another good 350k of GRM at 6.3c offers now 37k 6.8c 166k 7.4c big gaps will will be jumped come late march on hopefully good shallow high grade silver results...

going put up a thread


Hey JB, take a look at these screen shots, from IB whereby you can program your own BOT to do your accumulation and distribution for you as follows:

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/2ko57rk9exx5saj3aa3i.gif

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/fryr0g9uvp8lfu87knd.gif

Providing you know your parameters you can set and forget and then come back and see what accumulation has been done.

Not for your average trader though a mathematical brain required along with deep pockets depending on what stock and how much you wish to target.

Anyway, food for thought, and as there has been some previous talk about BOT control, or BOT trading so also thought that these images would allow others whom wonder where, why and how it is done, plus adding to that, there are numerous pre-configured scripts you can also edit, tweak and choose to deploy towards your trading goals (automated).

Cheers for now~!

[CAM]

Some States in the US thinking about accepting gold and silver coins as legal tender......

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/03/utah-considers-return-gold-silver-coins/

[JBmurc]

Silver now $35.35 Silver:Gold ratio-40.39 ever step Gold goes up Silver takes another one on the ratio high 30's next week

[percy]

Re AYN: Or perhaps not ..... smart people may say that when its being promoted by housewives ringing in to a tv show, now is the time to sell LOL

Left it to the mums and dads,sold today at 7.6cents.

[drillfix]

Left it to the mums and dads,sold today at 7.6cents.

Hi Percy,

Well, I guess your in the dosh on that one and the daily MACD histogram seems like is weakening, but the HOURLY chart seems like its gonna go for a bit of another run. Meaning, one last run up on the hourly before it falls over.

Good on ya for a good trade though~!

[shasta]

Left it to the mums and dads,sold today at 7.6cents.

Nice one Percy, like JBMurc a tidy profit for a month or so ;)

[percy]

Nice one Percy, like JBMurc a tidy profit for a month or so ;)

shasta.
Thank you for AYN .Yes I thought JBMurc had done rather well.I paid 4.5cents for mine on 13/1/11 and sold today for 7.6 cents,so I am very happy.Again to you and other posters thanks for your research , knowledge,and advice.

[shasta]

shasta.
Thank you for AYN .Yes I thought JBMurc had done rather well.I paid 4.5cents for mine on 13/1/11 and sold today for 7.6 cents,so I am very happy.Again to you and other posters thanks for your research , knowledge,and advice.

I'd better find a new home for all that cash ;)

[percy]

I'd better find a new home for all that cash ;)

Yes,perhaps JBMurc may pay you in silver bars.!!!!

[drillfix]

Yes,perhaps JBMurc may pay you in silver bars.!!!!

Your shout percy, Thai Food restaurant, cool as :)

[percy]

Your shout percy, Thai Food restaurant, cool as :)

I agree,that's a great idea.

[shasta]

Im with you JBMurc

I reckon silver will trade between $US30 - 35/oz during the 1st half of 2011, & in the $US35 - 40/oz during the 2nd half, likely to hit 40+ towards the end of the year

We still have another 7 months of the US $600B injection ($75B per month over 8 months) to keep precious metals ticking along, though i do expect Gold to be more volatile dropping back below $US1400/oz by the end of 2011.

Certainly favour Silver to outperform Gold during 2011

When i last checked overnight Silver was up 99c to $US36.66/oz at one stage, & closed just over $US36/oz.

Should be another good day for AYN & CCU, & Silver is showing no signs of retracing anytime soon!

[CAM]

Found this an interesting read

http://dont-tread-on.me/the-silver-bullet-and-the-silver-shield

[JBmurc]

Left it to the mums and dads,sold today at 7.6cents.

good stuff mate should have done the same I see I can buy it for what I sold @ 6c crazy times in the market looks like GRM have been getting some interest of late think they'll really boom late this months on ANN..

[JBmurc]

Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, March 19, 2011

Several of our suppliers are short of silver now, due to overwhelming customer demand. We also, at the JH MINT, had a record week last week.

Two of our best Silver Eagle suppliers have been sold out for a week. One might have them in again in about two weeks, but that's not guaranteed.

Our 10 oz. bar supplier is backordered now, with a two week delivery time.

Our 100 oz. bar supplier has raised prices.

We can still buy 90% junk bags and 1 oz. rounds and get them in a few days, but prices to manufacture 1 oz. rounds just increased.

All of our silver is available for immediate delivery, we still ship the same day your wire comes in, but our prices have increased to reflect the delays and price increases for us to replace those products.

Our price for 90% junk silver bags remains low at 3.7% over spot, but I don't know how long that bargain may last in this hot market. Once 90% silver sells out at the supplier level, it gets very difficult to source in quantity, since coins dated 1964 or earlier are not being made anymore. In fact, we have not been able to buy Silver Dollars from any wholesalers since we started dealing in late 2008.

We can also source 1000 oz. bars with a 5 day delivery wait, which is excellent and fast.

===== SILVER PRICES UNSTOPPABLE =====

Here's why major increases in the spot silver price is inevitable and unstoppable.

It is important to remember the two key ways they halted the exponential rise in the gold and silver prices in 1980. First of all, it was not a manipulation by the Hunt brothers, they were simply scape goats.

The way they halted the rise was to let interest rates rise to compete with the gold price increases. They let interest rates increase to about 22%. Gold, meanwhile, from 1971 to 1980, had increased from $35 to $850/oz., and if you take the annual average of that over 9 years, it was about 42.5% per year. See the math here:

http://www.smartmoney.com/compoundcalc/

The second way they halted the rise was to introduce futures contracts for gold. In this way, if you believed that gold prices would continue to rise, you could put down a small percentage, say 10% down, to control ten times the amount in gold. Then, you could have put the other 90% of your capital into bonds, to simultaneously capture the gains there.

This is not going to work this next time. Why not?

This time, it's different.

Interest rates have been kept artificially low for a very long time. Bond values move inversely to interest rates. This means that as interest rates rise, bond values go down. Examples: Let's say you have a 1 year bond paying 1%. So, you pay $99.01 for a bond that matures at $100 a year later, which is the result of the 1% increase, or bond interest rate. But if interests rates go to 10%, then the value of the bond goes down, and would only be worth $90.9 to mature at $100 a year later, with a 10% annual increase.

If they let interest rates rise from 4% to 25%, bond values would be crushed from about $99 to $80, and the bond market decimated. This move would be particularly destructive, since many bond holders don't hold bonds directly, but rather, they hold bonds on leverage.

Furthermore, many more businesses today, as compared to 1971, have much more debt, and if interest rates rose to 25%, the interest payments would be a crushing burden unable to be paid, and thus, most all companies in debt would go bankrupt, driving most stock prices to zero.

Furthermore, most of the derivatives out there are interest rate derivatives. Like in the silver market, these are mostly one way bets, with the market on one side, and the big banks on the other. The banks have bet interest rates will stay low, and the market is betting they will rise. So even the big banks will go under, if interest rates rise significantly, and so, they cannot.

Similarly, the futures market is about to default on silver and gold deliveries. There is a growing market awareness that the banks have sold short over $200 billion to $400 billion in silver, while all the world's silver mines only produce about $30 billion of silver annually. Market participants are now taking on the cornered banks, putting them into an epic short squeeze of having to deliver silver that does not exist in quantity even remotely compared to the amount of money that exists that can buy silver.

With bonds and futures both about to be fully discredited, they will not likely to be able to be used to trick market participants back into paper this next time around. With silver having gone up 100% in the last year, how high does the interest rate for bond need to go in order to convince holders of silver to give it up for paper? And even if they could, how could they possibly induce the tiny $3 billion silver investor market (investors only buy about 10% of the world's silver market today) to dump silver, to prop up the $50,000 billion bond market? Clearly, the smaller market, if sold, is not nearly big enough to prop up the larger market.

The banks are the deceivers, but they have become the deceived. There are no longer any people in the banking industry, or government, who practice the long lost art of fundamental analysis, basic math, and rational thinking. They flat out do not know what they are doing, or why. They are fighting a losing battle with tools that no longer work, and cannot work in the long run.

An investment into physical silver is now going to be a guaranteed win if you can manage to ride out any temporary price dips that the manipulators manage to paint the tape with. Silver buyers are ready to buy on the dips, and so, in 2008, when silver dipped, silver ran out, and premiums on physical silver reached as high as 50-70%. Such premiums may well return if the banks continue to foolishly fight rational market prices.

Silver shortages lead to either rises in price, or long delivery times. We have chosen a basic business model of free market processes to keep delivery times as fast as possible, and to let price rises be our guide instead. You are now likely to find other sellers of silver selling it cheaper than us, but they will keep your money for months. We recently heard of one national silver seller delay a silver delivery for 8 months. Be careful who you order from. Make sure they have the product in stock and can ship.

=====

I strongly advise you to take possession of real gold and silver, at anywhere near today's prices, while you still can. The fundamentals indicate rising prices for decades to come, and a major price spike can happen at any time.

[Skol]

If silver's such a great 'you can't lose' investment why doesn't Mr. Hommel hoard it himself?

Answer: Because he's selling it to suckers who believe all that stuff. LOL

Glenn Beck who exhorts suckers to buy gold quoting hyperinflation, manipulation, banksters and all the usual nonsense says he detected in the Japanese earthquake a "message" from God to follow the Ten Commandments.

Natural events like this sure bring out the cranks.

[JBmurc]

well he does actually hold a very large position himself round 100koz but I guess as he runs a silver/gold bullion selling store he's driving the price up and he's ripping people off like no business like to promote their wares ... and everyone that sells bullion is ripping investor off right ...sounds more like your the crank

Silver-$37.22oz USD up 128%yr on yr 30 days 11%

Silver : Gold ratio 38.34 ----(silver like it has for the last couple years is outperforming Gold)

[JBmurc]

3295got to love the 1yr Silver price chart strong up tread in place $40 here we come

[JBmurc]

Report: The Future of Silver Industrial Demand
Email Print
Thu, Mar 31, 2011 Feature Articles
By Michael Montgomery—Exclusive to Silver Investing News


inShare.0
A new report commissioned by The Silver Institute, from research firm GFMS, titled “The Future of Silver Industrial Demand” forecasts the industrial demand for silver through 2015. The report focuses on silvers unique properties that in many cases are irreplaceable by cheaper alternatives. Silver’s use in a wide array of applications such as electronics and photovoltaic solar cells, and as an antibacterial agent assure the metal new and expanding markets above and beyond the more traditional jewelry, photographic and silverware markets. Silver demand by the photovoltaic industry alone grew from 3Moz in 2004 to around 50Moz in 2010. The report has a bullish outlook for industrial demand, growing from 487.4 Moz in 2010 up to 665.9 Moz by 2015 marking a 36 percent increase over the five year period.

The report looks into the expansion of established uses such as electrical connections, as well as new emerging demand from innovations such as nano-tech as the driver of future industrial demand. An example of expanding established markets is the use of silver in automotive electrical connectors. The growth in this market is not just from increasing automobile demand but also from the expansion of features such as navigation systems, and electric seats, which though previously found only in luxury vehicles are quickly becoming a standard on all vehicles in this technological age. The story is much the same for cell phones and other high tech electronics markets.

Photovoltaic solar panels (PV) have been growing in popularity over the last decade as costs of electrical production are coming close to grip parity, or the cost of producing an equivalent amount of energy from fossil fuels. Silver is used in ‘thick film’ solar panels in which crystalline silicon is used to covert solar heat to energy. The use of silver in these solar panels has grown from 3 Moz in 2004 to 50 Moz in 2010. The report forecasts the demand for silver in these types of solar panels to grow to double by 2015. However, the report also covers the growing use of ‘thin film’ or CIGS solar panels that do not use silver in the production. This new solar panel design could reduce the total amount of silver used in PV technology.

Silver’s use in a host of other electrical devices is also a factor in total demand growth. These applications range from superconductors, super-capacitors, solid state lighting, batteries and other applications. Silver’s role in burgeoning Nano technology will make electrical components smaller and more efficient, which should increase the level of consumption of the products.

The report also cites the growing use of silver as an anti-microbial agent in the medical community, water purification and wood preservation industries as having massive growth potential. Some of these applications come from the ethylene oxide industry which uses silver in the production of a wide array of applications from solvents and plastics, to disinfectants in the medical community. Currently there is over 100 plants globally, the report forecasts silver capacity at these plants to exceed 150 Moz.

The effect of the projected 36 percent growth of industrial fabrication on the supply and demand fundamentals at play in the silver market may be quite substantial. Many analysts have noted that the supply of silver will become increasingly tight as mines worldwide are not able to make up for growing demand. This will obviously raise the price of silver, which has already seen impressive gains since the economic downturn. Precious metals are increasingly sought after as a hedge against inflationary trends, and as the price of gold is becoming out of reach for the average investor, the increases in investment demand for the poor man’s gold is booming.

Unless a robust economic turnaround is realized in the short term, which would entice investors to seek out equities in greater volume, the counter inflationary investment trend does not seem to be letting up anytime soon. Coupled with increases in industrial demand, the price of silver has nowhere to go but up. Of course the higher price of silver may increase the search for alternatives to the white metal; however, because of silver’s unique properties very few substitutes exist. This means that direct investment in silver as well as investments in ETF’s should perform well going forward

[shasta]

Silver closed at $37.69/oz, Ag to Au ratio now 37.742

AYN closed at 8.2c up 0.6c Friday & should add some more Monday ;)

[JBmurc]

silver is a scarce material. Our uses of silver are growing as our population and our economy grows. The hard fact is that silver consumption is now more than double new silver production each year. So, in the face of this worldwide shortage of silver, and our rapidly growing need for coins, the only really prudent course was to reduce our dependence upon silver for making our coins.--President Lyndon Johnson made on July 23, 1965

http://goldsilver.com/article/silver-metal-investment-a-presidential-bombshell-by-theodore-butler/

[shasta]

Silver marches on up 29c overnight to $US39.57/oz, getting close to the $40/oz mark, crazy stuff, i never thought we'd see $40/oz this early in the year

[Skol]

From today's FT:


Indeed, it is possibly a misjudgment to assume that bullion’s rise reflects inflation concerns. Other factors cited by analysts and commentators over recent days for the strength in precious metals have included: worries over the eurozone; geopolitical problems; Japan’s nuclear woes; and even the possible US government shutdown.

But none of these issues seems to be having lasting impact on other risk assets, so it would be strange if their influence was being applied to bullion alone. In which case, perhaps gold and silver’s rise is part and parcel of the overall bull market, powered by cheap funds. Nothing more.

[Skol]

silver is a scarce material. Our uses of silver are growing as our population and our economy grows. The hard fact is that silver consumption is now more than double new silver production each year. So, in the face of this worldwide shortage of silver, and our rapidly growing need for coins, the only really prudent course was to reduce our dependence upon silver for making our coins.--President Lyndon Johnson made on July 23, 1965

http://goldsilver.com/article/silver-metal-investment-a-presidential-bombshell-by-theodore-butler/

Silver's scarce. LOL, there's heaps of it and as the price increases they'll dig up more.

It's like the goldbug's wet dream, "we're running out of gold". Last year 2500 tonnes of gold were dug up.

Hey JB, chunks of silver aren't very liquid. What's the plan when the day of reckoning arrives?

[Skol]

Here it comes JB.
From today's FT.

Silver Price Indicates Level of Speculative Froth.


By Jamie Chisholm

Published: April 6 2011 16:12 | Last updated: April 6 2011 16:12

Four assets, two tight relationships, one confusing mess of market messages.


Let’s start with oil. Brent crude touched $123 a barrel on Wednesday. When it spiked to $119 in February it caused severe conniptions. This time stocks are near cyclical highs as bulls say oil’s rise is demand powered, handily less damaging than a supply crunch.

The spread between Brent and Nymex crude was seen as a proxy for supply concerns (because the former is considered more sensitive to Mideast production). And that spread has widened again to $14 as both contracts move to 30-month highs. Now, though, this trend is being dismissed.

Gold and its silver pilot fish are at record and 31-year highs, respectively. Apart from people buying jewellery when they feel flush, the two other main demand drivers for gold are negative factors: rampant inflation and political strife. Not good for stocks.

Now it is true early stages of inflation can come as a relief when the previous concern was deflation. But, longer term, gold bugs and equity bulls can not both have their cake and eat it. Silver at its most expensive, relative to gold, since 1983 speaks to the scale of speculative froth.
.

[JBmurc]

Silver's scarce. LOL, there's heaps of it and as the price increases they'll dig up more..

yeah we can just keep digging can't we Skol never ending silver supply the last five thousand years of silver mining doesn't mean we don't have another five thousand years left(I wouldn't be surprised if you thought this as you don't have a clue)

Fact-Silver $40.93oz is still cheap we haven't seen nothing yet

[JBmurc]

Why Silver Will Go UP for Years to Come!
(Floods of paper money!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, April 7th, 2011

1. No nation on earth is using silver as a circulating medium of exchange. The State of Utah is leading the way by making it legal tender.

2. All nations on earth are using paper for money, which is about as wise as building houses out of straw. The amount of paper money is uncountable, and is constantly soaring to new highs. The USA stopped reporting the amounts of money in the banks back in 2006, and the banks in 2008 started depositing a lot of their bailout money with the Fed banks, making it even harder to track. All of that marks the beginning of hyperinflation, which appears to be starting now.

3. The Federal annual deficit, which is how much they spent more than they took in, is $1.66 trillion, or $830 billion for the first half of fiscal 2011. Does that count QEII? What was not counted in that? How reliable are the figures? If the figures are wrong, are the real figures likely to be bigger or smaller, and by how much?

http://tinyurl.com/3ozdljx (April 7th news item)

4. The silver market remains tiny. "World investment rose by an impressive 40 percent last year to 279.3 million troy ounces (Moz), resulting in a net flow into silver of $5.6 billion, almost doubling 2009’s figure." How reliable are the figures?

http://www.silverinstitute.org/pr07apr2011.php (April 7th news item)

Recap: New US Debt: $830 billion in 6 months.
Recap: New Silver buying: $5.6 billion, all year.

Essay assignment, compare and contrast those two numbers.

Which one is bigger? Which one is smaller?

What is likely to change?
What is likely to stay the same?

If the US government spends new paper money that it does not have, is that inflationary? Will that make the new dollars tend to go down in value? If so, by how much?

Are silver prices likely to go up, as new money buys silver to protect itself? In your opinion, much new money will be likely to buy silver next year? How much do you think the silver price will continue to be driven up, in the next year, by such buying?

Is the US government likely to suddenly balance the budget by next year, or will the spending like a drunken sailor be likely to continue?

If you convince your friends to buy silver, are they more likely to thank you, or not, as certain trends and fundamentals continue?

[denpal]

Silver now $US41.40/oz

[Skol]

If you convince your friends to buy silver, are they more likely to thank you, or not, as certain trends and fundamentals continue?

Sounds like a good way to lose your friends if it all goes awry.
I've got an aquaintance who's just lost $485,000. Recommended to join an investment scheme by 'friends'.

[Skol]

AA,
Physical gold or silver is illiquid, property is almost infinitely illiquid, so when it all goes wrong with shares, cash, gold etf, silver etf, (avoiding the debate about not having it your possession and whether it's a scam) you can get out at a moment's notice.

That's why so many property 'investors' are still going broke.
It's in the public notices every day.

[JBmurc]

Yes property at the right prices/yield is good buying, but currently here in NZ and in many other countries your not going to see any major capital gains (if thats what your after)any time soon and IMHO I do believe Silver will well and truly outperform NZ property growth over the next decade...
My investment in property is our own home where my partner also has her own work area,reception etc we do have a good few dollars in debt so do have some leverage in property
by the way depending on your assets you can buy shares(silver/gold) or bullion with debt so can have leverage if you really want it

[JBmurc]

Sounds like a good way to lose your friends if it all goes awry.
I've got an aquaintance who's just lost $485,000. Recommended to join an investment scheme by 'friends'.

thanks why it's highly recommend to take advice from friends with a very good history of investing

[JBmurc]

JBmurc the general public can not leverage themselves (by spending todays devalualing dollars) as much on gold/silver as the can on property, Infact the general joe blogs can borrow and spend 9 times the amount of dollars in property than he can in gold/silver i.e $10,000 in gold buys you $100,000 in property , 4% inflation example, you make $400 investing in gold i.e you keep up with rate of inflation, if you borrow for property you make $4000, ten times more. this isn't factoring in supply and demand. Simply gold/silver cant keep up because it lacks the same leverage ability.

AA (i realize sums are a little wrong, but is done to keep the example simple, my point clear, leverage is a huge factor, we are in a inflationary environment and houses when averaged over time are increasing faster that the rate of inflation and provide up to 9 times the ability to spend a devaluing dollar "today")

yes I understand you stand on leverage AA have traded in property had well over 1mill in debt in property at one stage(isn't that much I know but when your 26 and have a base income of 60k and little savings it is) during the boom years down south have made some very good gains would I recommend mates to leverage up in property going forward well if it's your own home yes of course if your rent isn't much less than owning your own property go ahead and get a 90% loan ..

Am I or would I recommend one to buy a average 6-7% yeilding 30-40yr+ old NZ investment property at this stage.. No not a great investment if that's your only investment outside your own home IMHO
how many leveraged chch investors now don't see property as super safe had they lumps of Silver bullion(what I've been recommending for years) Silver 125% USD growth Year on year

[JBmurc]

Well an interesting case is yours JBMurc My X girlfriend is the manager of a branch of the National Bank, shes here tonight, we both find it rather crazy that someone can get in debt and borrow to the excess of 1 million (at the age of 26) with a base income of only 60k and little savings, in fact its not possible under any major banks criteria, based on the details given, maybe you had additional income from somewhere or significant security over other land or asset.

CHCH investors like most other investors should hold insurance, im pretty sure average property sales when considering average leverage on those houses have left gold and silver for dead over the last 50 30 10 years.


actually its a fact, and until gold and silver can provide the same leverage abilities it hard to see it being a better investment class, even if it appreciates in value twice as fast its still the poorer choice due to leverage.

AA

It was during the boom years in queenstown had a 40k deposit on one of my two units getting built and just brought another section to build on plus holding another(to build my own home) I now remember I did have a decent 150k funds on deposit on the sections in total and build I do always remember being be it a short period of time over 1mill in debt was a very stressfull time now even trying to get a 70% loan on are own home we,ve been turned down by some banks on an interest only loan

[Skol]

This is from Bloomberg.
I'd substitute the word 'dumb' for 'brave'.


“We continue to believe that silver will reach $50, based nearly exclusively on speculator activity,” Edel Tully, a UBS analyst in London, said today in a report to clients. “Silver could surge to $45 this week, before very quickly surrendering double-digit percentage gains. It takes a brave investor to buy silver right now.

[Skol]

Here it comes JB.

www.thestreet.com/story/11078165/1/4-indications-of-a-silver-bubble.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN

Notice the little 'Mr. Bubble'?

[JBmurc]

Investment Legends, Part II
by Jeff Clark


What will happen to the US economy and the dollar in the near term? Will inflation increase dramatically? What is the outlook for gold, and where should you put your money? BIG GOLD asked a world-class panel of economists, authors, and investment advisors what they expect for the future. Caution: strong opinions ahead...

Jim Rogers is a self-made billionaire, author of the bestsellers Adventure Capitalist and Investment Biker, and a sought-after financial commentator. He was a co-founder of the Quantum Fund, a successful hedge fund, and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI).

Bill Bonner is the president and founder of Agora, Inc., a worldwide publisher of financial advice and opinions. He is also the author of the Internet-based Daily Reckoning and a regular columnist in MoneyWeek magazine.

Walter J. "John" Williams, private consulting economist and "economic whistleblower," has been working with Fortune 500 companies for 30 years. His newsletter Shadow Government Statistics provides in-depth analysis of the government's "creative" economic reporting practices.

Steve Henningsen is chief investment strategist and partner at The Wealth Conservancy in Boulder, CO, assisting clients interested in wealth preservation. Current assets under management exceed $200 million.

Frank Trotter is an executive vice president of EverBank and a founding partner of http://www.EverBank.com, a national branchless bank that was acquired by the current EverBank in 2002. He received an M.B.A. from Washington University and has over 30 years experience in the banking industry.

Dr. Krassimir Petrov is an Austrian economist and holds a Ph.D. in economics from Ohio State University. He was assistant professor in economics at the American University in Bulgaria, then an associate professor in finance at Prince Sultan University in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He is currently an associate professor at Ahlia University in Manama, Bahrain. He's been a contributing editor for Agora Financial and Casey Research.

Big Gold: The US dollar ended 2010 about where it started; does it resume its downtrend in 2011, or are fears about its demise overblown?

Jim Rogers: No, but further down the road.

Bill Bonner: No opinion. But there is more risk in the dollar than potential reward.

John Williams: There remains high risk of a dollar selling panic unfolding in the year ahead, as the US economy tanks anew, as the Fed continuously expands its easing, and as dollar holders dump the US currency and dollar-denominated paper assets. Such would be a precursor to the inflation problem.

Steve Henningsen: Similar to my thoughts last year, I still believe the dollar is headed down long-term, but it could bounce around over the next year. If sovereign debts become a problem again, like I think they will later this year, then everyone will go running back to "Mother Dollar" once again for one last hug before she lies back down on her sickbed.

Frank Trotter: As the economy waffles and the global investing community's attention is drawn from one crisis to the next, I expect the US dollar to bounce up and down in the current range. After that, however, my analysis suggests that measured by the key factors of fiscal and monetary policy, combined with a significant trade deficit, the US does not look as good as our major trading partners, and I thus expect the dollar to decline, perhaps significantly, in the intermediate term. Big geopolitical events may accelerate this or create a flight to US dollar quality, so hold on to your hats.

Krassimir Petrov: I think the dollar resumes lower. I expect QE3 and QE4 - a dollar-printing fest that will eventually sink the dollar. Sure, all fiat currencies are in deep trouble and prone to overprinting, but the reserve status of the dollar actually makes it more vulnerable now. Whether the dollar sinks against other currencies is a fool's game not worth playing. It is like being in the hospital, where all patients are suffering from cancer, and trying to guess who will feel best at the end of next year, or trying to guess who will succumb first. That's why it is so much safer to play the dollar against gold.

What to watch in 2011: stay focused on the sovereign debt crisis and bond yields. Spiking yields will trigger the next stage of the crisis.

BG: Gold has risen 10 years in a row, so some are calling it a bubble, yet it's roughly $1,000 below its inflation-adjusted high. What's your outlook for the metal in 2011?

Jim Rogers: It is hardly a "bubble" when very few own it still. Who knows? Overdue for a correction, but who knows?

Bill Bonner: The smart money is in gold. It will stay in gold until the bull market that began 10 years ago finally reaches its peak. It is extremely unlikely that the top will come in 2011; it's probably years in the future. In the meantime, gold is bound to have a losing year or two. Don't worry about it. Buy gold. Be happy.

John Williams: As the US dollar increasingly is debased, and where gold tends to preserve the purchasing power of the dollars invested in it, the upside to gold in the year ahead is open-ended, restricted only by any limits to the massive downside potential for the US dollar. Any intermittent gold price volatility, extreme or otherwise, will be short-lived. There is no bubble - only increasing weakness in the US dollar - with the gold price fundamentally headed much higher in the years ahead.

Steve Henningsen: I believe gold will once again prove the bubble-boys wrong and end the year positive (I have no idea by how much and don't really care). However, I think this year will be more volatile and that Gold Bugs better remain seated on the precious metals express or they might get squished.

Frank Trotter: I still think that with price inflation on the rise and big political events occurring, there may be room to continue to rise. If stock markets take off, then there will be a reduction in appreciation or even a significant decline, but based on the factors I mentioned above, I don't see that as highly likely.

Krassimir Petrov: Gold still has outstanding fundamentals. I believe that over the course of 2010, the fundamentals have strengthened significantly: (1) "No Exit [Strategy] for Ben" as he unleashed QE2, and will likely unleash QE3, QE4, etc., (2) no more central bank selling of gold, (3) more central banks become buyers of gold, and (4) trial balloons for a global gold-backed currency.

I have no idea how people could even claim that gold is in a bubble - barely 1 out of 100 people have any idea about investing in gold. During the real estate bubble, every second person was involved in it. Maria "Money Honey" Bartiromo has yet to report from the COMEX gold pits; gold fund managers and analysts have yet to obtain rock-star status; and glamorous models are not yet dating the gold guys. Who is the Henry Blodget [co-host of Tech Ticker] of the gold sector, do we have one yet?

Yes, gold will eventually become a bubble, but that feels 5-8 years away.

BG: What's your best investment advice for 2011?

Jim Rogers: Buy the rmb [renminbi, the Chinese currency].

Bill Bonner: We are in a period much like the period following WWI, in which the great debts and losses of the war had to be reckoned with. It is an era of great risk. The US faces many of the same challenges faced by Germany and England after WWI. Like England, it has huge debts. It is a waning imperial power. And it has the world's reserve currency. And like Germany, it is attempting to fix its problems by printing more money. This is not a good time to be long either US stocks or US bonds.

John Williams: As an economist, I look for the US dollar ultimately to lose virtually all of its current purchasing power. Accordingly, for those living in a US dollar-denominated world, it would make sense to move to preserve wealth and assets over the long-term. Physical gold is a primary hedge (as is silver). Holding some stronger currencies outside the US dollar, as well as having some assets outside the United States, also may make sense.

Steve Henningsen: Dramamine (for volatile markets), a stash of cash (for potential investment opportunities), and move some of your assets offshore if you haven't already.

Frank Trotter: My advice is first to look at the other side of your balance sheet - the liability and risk equation - before seeking out absolute gains. What are your goals, what resources do you already have to meet those goals, and what events (health, income stream, upheavals) might impact these risks? Place some assets to hedge these risks directly, then look to diversify globally into markets with higher growth potential than we see here at home, and that may balance your global purchasing power risk. Almost like a religion, we have had the phrase, "Stocks are the only legitimate hedge against inflation" beaten into our heads. I say, look at assets that define inflation like commodities and currencies and evaluate where these fit into your risk portfolio.

Krassimir Petrov: Last year I recommended silver, and I would stick to silver again, despite its phenomenal run. Then it gets tricky. I usually don't recommend diversification, but now I would again recommend a broad portfolio of commodities. Investing during the rest of 2011 should be easy: stay out of real estate, out of bonds, out of fiat currencies, and out of stocks; stay fully invested in commodities, overweight gold and silver.

Regards,

Jeff Clark

[JBmurc]

Silver now over $42oz USD down to 74 soon to be 73-72-67 etc
the Silver gold ratio just made into 34's -every move Gold makes silver goes one futher

but if you listen to skol silver is in a bubble LOL he was saying that at the start of the year
and he will continue to say it for years to come

[Skol]

Silver now over $42oz USD down to 74 soon to be 73-72-67 etc
the Silver gold ratio just made into 34's -every move Gold makes silver goes one futher

but if you listen to skol silver is in a bubble LOL he was saying that at the start of the year
and he will continue to say it for years to come

The further silver moves up against gold the bigger the fall when the day of reckoning arrives.

Great fun, right, can't believe your luck? Nothing can go wrong, go wrong, go wrong.

In speculation parlance, you've reached the euphoria stage.

Great to watch, like the golden arches. 'I'm lovin' it', could be one for the history books. "The Great Silver Crash of 2011".

[Skol]

From a Wall Street Observer. Hear, hear.



Hubris from the bulls…I mean the commodity/precious metal bulls, currently the most arrogant group of investors on the planet. According to these guys, there is no price at which gold or silver can be sold. No overvaluation level for oil or copper or corn. Commodities can only rise ever higher.

These things are ideal vehicles for speculative bubbles. No valuations, no earnings expectations, no accounting issues. And this has led to a speculative market for commodities. My gardener is trading commodities as she does my spring planting.

Look, I get the QE box, I coined the term QEi, for infinite QE. But trees don’t grow to the sky. And commodities price spikes sow the seeds of their own destruction.

It costs about $6 or $7 dollars to produce an ounce of silver and about $1.25 for a pound of copper. But, silver is money say the bulls, and avoids the laws of economics. Copper is in permanent shortage so upside is unlimited. No price is too high. Until it is. We will see how arrogant the commodities bulls remain when the inevitable correction happens.

My suspicion is that their hubris will be tested in the absence of QE later this year, but who knows. Maybe gold will be $10,000 an ounce and oil $200 per barrel in 18 months. The commodity bulls blare that this is a one decision trade. It may be. Then again, by the time something achieves “one decision” status, it’s usually closer to a high than not.

[Skol]

Shortly before oil crashed in 2008, one observer made the statement, "nothing can go up 8 times in 8 years and not crash".

Silver has gone up more than 9 time in 8 years.

[JBmurc]

The further silver moves up against gold the bigger the fall when the day of reckoning arrives.

Great fun, right, can't believe your luck?

In speculation parlance, you've reached the euphoria stage.

Great to watch, like the golden arches. 'I'm lovin' it', could be one for the history books. "The Great Silver Crash of 2011".

Don't know about luck have been bullish Silver since $7oz

the great silver crash LOL that may come one day but it will be after the great USD crash and it will unlike the USD still hold a value multiples of today value

and also SKOL you go on and on about the last 80's Gold silver crash as what happen when investors go from love to hate view
well the fact of the matter was the COMEX in 1980, terrified that it would be forced into default , announced—with the backing of the CFTC—that trading in silver would be limited to liquidation orders only, eliminating any buyers.(at the time the hunts were wanting out of their massive USD positions to hold silver)
so doesn't take a genius to see major shorters jumped on board margin calls etc FEAR help drive the Silver/gold price downwards

[Skol]

Don't know about luck have been bullish Silver since $7oz

the great silver crash LOL that may come one day but it will be after the great USD crash and it will unlike the USD still hold a value multiples of today value

and also SKOL you go on and on about the last 80's Gold silver crash as what happen when investors go from love to hate view
well the fact of the matter was the COMEX in 1980, terrified that it would be forced into default , announced—with the backing of the CFTC—that trading in silver would be limited to liquidation orders only, eliminating any buyers.(at the time the hunts were wanting out of their massive USD positions to hold silver)
so doesn't take a genius to see major shorters jumped on board margin calls etc FEAR help drive the Silver/gold price downwards

Yeah, I know, it's different this time.

[JBmurc]

well unlike the 80's there's billion more investors and trillions more dollars created out of thin air and even less silver around
so cause it different this time

[Skol]

Quote from Sir John Templeton:

"The four most dangerous words in investing are 'this time it's different'."

[shasta]

Quote from Sir John Templeton:

"The four most dangerous words in investing are 'this time it's different'."

Well Skol, i posted my thoughts on Silver earlier in this thread as to where i thought Silver would go & its outperformed even my bullish sentiments, & after posting about AYN @ 4.2c (Silver around $30/oz at that time), its now trading 14c in little under 2 months

Instead of finding every contrary anti gold/silver bug writer, why didnt u ride the wave?

I selected AYN in the ASX comp & outlined why silver would perform, its now up 233% for the year, & you choose to ignore it!

[JBmurc]

BRICS take aim at dollar with call for global monetary revamp


http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/global-filipino/world/04/14/11/brics-take-aim-dollar-call-global-monetary-revamp


the biggest bubble thats going round is the US dollar bubble the 14.3trillion debt ceiling is now close to being hit talk of the need for another 1 trillion to get through the next 6months the BRICS nations buying record amounts of Gold/silver now want a new world currency and more and more are trading in their own currencys moving away from the dollar which is over flowing into many accounts worldwide

[Skol]

Well Skol, i posted my thoughts on Silver earlier in this thread as to where i thought Silver would go & its outperformed even my bullish sentiments, & after posting about AYN @ 4.2c (Silver around $30/oz at that time), its now trading 14c in little under 2 months

Instead of finding every contrary anti gold/silver bug writer, why didnt u ride the wave?

I selected AYN in the ASX comp & outlined why silver would perform, its now up 233% for the year, & you choose to ignore it!

You got lucky more than likely. If I was to listen to everyone here I'd probably go broke.

If silver was $30 then it would still have gone up 7 times in 8 years, too risky for me.

If I was in AYN, I'd bail out; today. I've just had a look at the chart.

I don't follow anti-gold or silver commentators, just the odd comment from observers that silver is a bubble.

The goldbugs and the like follow their 'psychics' who are obsessed with US debt etc., the coming meltdown that will ruin everyone except those who own gold or silver, we've heard about the inflation boogeyman for years but it's not happening.

[JBmurc]

Well many investors/bankers/analysts are very worried about the US debt woes not just gold bugs

when you selling those 2- 1kg bullion bars skol I bid on them throw them on sella no costs so you will get full value I'd say you get 1800ea min

[Skol]

Well many investors/bankers/analysts are very worried about the US debt woes not just gold bugs

when you selling those 2- 1kg bullion bars skol I bid on them throw them on sella no costs so you will get full value I'd say you get 1800ea min

Might hang on to them a little big longer, the herd could get really carried away. When there's a mania on, anything goes, there's no stopping it, punters think they're bulletproof.

[JBmurc]

Might hang on to them a little big longer, the herd could get really carried away. When there's a mania on, anything goes, there's no stopping it, punters think they're bulletproof.

hold onto them for a few mores years and you could be very surprised what there worth esp as it's really a very small investment not going matter if like you so believe the Fiat paper worldwide is fine and not going have any troubles going forward and silver isn't that rare and all one as to do is dig a hole and pull it out
I'm happy holding my 1800oz

[Skol]

1800 oz. Good luck.

I've just been reading an article on the gold/silver price ratio which says silver is the most overbought since at least 1712.

It says the the year following years where the gold/silver ratio increased the most it began a decline, dropping an average of 77% to its ultimate low, and in December 2010 the gold/silver ratio had increased by 50% for the year, so 2011 is the year the blow-off will occur.

Charts suggest there will no new silver yearly closing highs until 2034.

That'll be the next generation re-inventing the wheel.

There's theory that the AUD is a proxy for gold, good enough for me.

[JBmurc]

"Good luck"

No just good investment decision backed by the facts ,,we'll see how it plays out from here I give the USD strengthening and Silver collasping a 1-100 chance so you and your anti-silver pro USD will need more than luck and mass manipulation of paper contracts to control it..

[Skol]

Silver has outperformed gold by more than 100% in the last year.

Tell me that's not a speculative mania.

[shasta]

Silver has outperformed gold by more than 100% in the last year.

Tell me that's not a speculative mania.

Yes, but prior to that Gold outperformed Silver, & is only now catching up as precious metals tend to do last in commodity booms

[Skol]

Yes, but prior to that Gold outperformed Silver, & is only now catching up as precious metals tend to do last in commodity booms

Over 5 years silver has outperformed gold by 80%+.

[shasta]

Over 5 years silver has outperformed gold by 80%+.

Take out this years Silver run then

[JBmurc]

Over 5 years silver has outperformed gold by 80%+.

Yes and it will continue till the ratio ofSilver to Gold gets into the mid teens then any further we can talk silver bubbles to Gold IMHO

Historical Ratios of Gold to Silver
Silver has had a monetary function far longer than gold, being used as the most common medium of exchange in everyday commerce since well before the time of Christ. In fact, silver again lasted longer than gold as a medium of exchange. No doubt if people were free to circulate whatever kind of money they chose, silver would again become the common man's first choice.

The first metal used as a currency was silver, before 2000 BC, when silver ingots were used in trade, and it was not until 1500 years later that the first coinage of pure gold was introduced.
Historically, silver was valued at approximately 1/12 the price of gold or what I call the natural ratio. Once silver and gold were both used as money, silver was 1/16th the price of gold. This is what I refer to as the "classic" ratio or monetary ratio. This 1/16 ratio held from 1700 to 1860, one hundred and sixty years. Only in recent history has the gold/silver ratio risen above the "classic" 16:1. If we use the classic ratio, then one troy ounce of silver would be over $25 with gold at $450.

If you had a chart 45 feet long where every foot represented one century of history, the ratio of gold to silver (for most of human history, a band from 8:1 to 12:1 ) would never rise above 16 to one until the last fifteen inches. According to AGI "Abundance of Elements," silver occurs at 0.07 ppm and gold at 0.004 ppm in the earth's crust with a naturally occurring ratio is 17.5:1. Interesting - that's not far from the last monetary ratio 16:1 set when both gold and silver were still universal money in the last century

Historical Ratios of the Price of Gold to the Price of Silver
Menes (1st Egyptian Dynasty, 3100 BC) gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 2½
Croesus Mermnadae (561-546 BC) official gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 13 1/3
Augustus (Early Imperial Rome) gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 12.50
Charlemagne (AD 781) gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 12.00
Edward III (14th Century England gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 11.57
Jean le Bon (14th Century France) gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 11.11
Spain 1500 massive silver supplies from the Western Hemisphere jump above ratio 1 to 13.0
China 1400 to 1600 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 5 rising to 1 to 8
Spain 1687 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 15.0
Isaac Newton (Royal Mint, 1717) gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 15.21
Napoléon Bonaparte (1803) gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 15.5
France's bimetallic system 1848 to1873 French legal ratio of 1 to 15.5
US Coinage Act of 1873 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 16.00
US 1876 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 18
US 1886 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 20
US 1900 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 33
US 1910 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 38
1930s Roosevelt forced China off the silver standard. Removing all that monetary demand for silver made it lose value against gold, industrial demand could not soak up the excess supply
US 1941 for the first time in history, the ratio hit 1 to 100.
US 1980 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 16.00
Late 2003 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 75
Mid 2004 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 50 to 1 to 70
January 2006 gold/silver price ratio is about 1 to 60
June 2007 gold/silver price ratio is about 1 to 49

As of close of last nights trading gold/silver ratio is 1 to 34.53 (Silver 43.05)

[Skol]

Here it is you can read it. Gold/silver ratio doesn't make sense to me, like gold/oil and all the other ratios.

It's all about investor sentiment, here's EZ telling me the other day that gold is on the way up because Congress can't decide on a budget.
Budget is decided, but gold still goes up, what you call a suckers rally.

www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/silver-silver-price-overbought-gold-silver/4-12-2011/id/33909

[shasta]

Here it is you can read it. Gold/silver ratio doesn't make sense to me, like gold/oil and all the other ratios.

It's all about investor sentiment, here's EZ telling me the other day that gold is on the way up because Congress can't decide on a budget.
Budget is decided, but gold still goes up, what you call a suckers rally.

www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/silver-silver-price-overbought-gold-silver/4-12-2011/id/33909

Not the budget, but where are they getting the money to pay back there debt, printing it?

[elZorro]

Here it is you can read it. Gold/silver ratio doesn't make sense to me, like gold/oil and all the other ratios.

It's all about investor sentiment, here's EZ telling me the other day that gold is on the way up because Congress can't decide on a budget.
Budget is decided, but gold still goes up, what you call a suckers rally.

www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/silver-silver-price-overbought-gold-silver/4-12-2011/id/33909 (http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/silver-silver-price-overbought-gold-silver/4-12-2011/id/33909)

Skol, there are lots of reasons for gold to go up, and temporary inabilities of the biggest economy in the world to strike a budget is one. They have had another voting crisis since, and the major funding issues surface again in May. But here is some good news for you, on the farm. Your produce will be in demand even more, as Asian per capita income increases. (http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2010/09/27/bric-food-file-emerging-markets-redraw-the-world-food-map/)

The flipside is that gold will also increase in price, if the correlation is correct. It's not until 2014 that major extra gold supplies are forecast from new and reopened mines, that might have been marginal before.

Oops, sorry, thought I was in the gold thread...

[JBmurc]

Wow $43 and it's only April I really didn't think we would see the 40's levels to later in the year
50's this year very likely IMHO but really the real spike will come when the Major paper silver shorters JPM,HSBC,BOA have to close down the bulk of their Silver short positions as they must be hurting to the tune of muti billions of losses esp JPM as they have been short since the teens they have stated to have closed some of their position but to this day they are still well known to be the biggest of shorters...

--Ed Steers-------------------------------15-04-11--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I didn't have the chance to talk to Ted Butler about the Commitment of Traders report yesterday...but there was an improvement in the Commercial short positions in both metals for the reporting week ending Tuesday, April 12th.

In silver, the bullion banks reduced their net short position by a rather large 5,135 contracts...or 25.7 million ounces. The Commercial net short position is now down to 256.4 million ounces. The '4 or less' bullion banks are short 209.0 million ounces...and the '8 or less' bullion banks are short 267.6 million ounces. These are the lowest numbers I've seen in quite a while.

In gold, the Commercial net short position was reduced by 4,977 contracts...or 497,700 ounces. The Commercial net short position now stands at 25.4 million ounces. The '4 or less' bullion banks are short 16.1 million ounces of that...and the '8 or less' bullion banks are short 22.65 million ounces.

Without doubt, these numbers have deteriorated significantly since the Tuesday cut-off...as the open interest numbers for Thursday and Friday showed huge increases. As I've been saying, these rallies in both gold and silver are not going unopposed...and the bullion banks, as short sellers of last resort, are going short against all the new longs pouring into the market, in order to prevent the price of both metals from going supernova. And that's exactly what would happen if they didn't.

[Skol]

The greatest and most catastrophic loss of funds in history was the NASDAQ crash following the speculative mania in internet stocks. I remember very well watching enthusiastic NASDAQ investors on TV telling those that hadn't sunk money into internet stocks that this was a new era, that they (non-NASDAQ investors) just didn't understand.

In the 7 years leading up to the crash the NASDAQ increased by 6.25 times.

For the last 7 years silver has increased 8.6 times.

Luckily I wasn't involved, but while a crash in the silver price won't have the same catastrophic results it has the potential to wipe out heaps of hedge and mutual funds and millions of overly optimistic individuals.

Gonna be good to watch though, a new generation learning all about speculation, new eras, manias and bubbles.

A quote from one of my books:

""However, once an investment mania has begun, the point at which an investor sells is no longer that important, because I am not familiar with any mania that did not subsequently give back its entire gains over the years leading to the top, and usually some more."

[denpal]

This shows what can happen: http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2009/10/Pages/Can-gold-and-silver-equities-expect-5000-returns-again.aspx

I know Skol will choke............but silver bugs have already made such big gains that even a 40% price decrease to $26/oz will still leave them with plenty of gains. And to think that the best part could still be to come.

[Skol]

This shows what can happen: http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2009/10/Pages/Can-gold-and-silver-equities-expect-5000-returns-again.aspx

I know Skol will choke............but silver bugs have already made such big gains that even a 40% price decrease to $26/oz will still leave them with plenty of gains. And to think that the best part could still be to come.

One of the main rules on manias is that 'investors' or should I call them, suckers, get so enamoured with their gains that by the time they decide to cash in, the party's over.

By the way, denny, I've done this before, check the peak oil thread and go back to 2008 just before oil crashed from $147 to $32.
I got the same response from the peak oilers as I'm getting from you guys.

[shasta]

Im with you JBMurc

I reckon silver will trade between $US30 - 35/oz during the 1st half of 2011, & in the $US35 - 40/oz during the 2nd half, likely to hit 40+ towards the end of the year

We still have another 7 months of the US $600B injection ($75B per month over 8 months) to keep precious metals ticking along, though i do expect Gold to be more volatile dropping back below $US1400/oz by the end of 2011.

Certainly favour Silver to outperform Gold during 2011

What i said back on 12/12/10

[hal]

The greatest and most catastrophic loss of funds in history was the NASDAQ crash following the speculative mania in internet stocks. I remember very well watching enthusiastic NASDAQ investors on TV telling those that hadn't sunk money into internet stocks that this was a new era, that they (non-NASDAQ investors) just didn't understand.

In the 7 years leading up to the crash the NASDAQ increased by 6.25 times.

For the last 7 years silver has increased 8.6 times.

Luckily I wasn't involved, but while a crash in the silver price won't have the same catastrophic results it has the potential to wipe out heaps of hedge and mutual funds and millions of overly optimistic individuals.

Gonna be good to watch though, a new generation learning all about speculation, new eras, manias and bubbles.

A quote from one of my books:

""However, once an investment mania has begun, the point at which an investor sells is no longer that important, because I am not familiar with any mania that did not subsequently give back its entire gains over the years leading to the top, and usually some more."

Even if you were on the right track it could only wipe people out if they overexposed themselves.

Surely at least having some investment in Gold/Silver is a good idea in these times. It certainly has been for the last 10 years or so.

Everyone to their own ideas I suppose.

[Skol]

Even if you were on the right track it could only wipe people out if they overexposed themselves.

Surely at least having some investment in Gold/Silver is a good idea in these times. It certainly has been for the last 10 years or so.

Everyone to their own ideas I suppose.

Correct, each to their own. Some exposure's a good idea

Having an overexposure at the moment could make you rich, it could also make you poor, very poor.

[JBmurc]

One of the main rules on manias is that 'investors' or should I call them, suckers, get so enamoured with their gains that by the time they decide to cash in, the party's over.

By the way, denny, I've done this before, check the peak oil thread and go back to 2008 just before oil crashed from $147 to $32.
I got the same response from the peak oilers as I'm getting from you guys.

"Oh the mania" maybe one in a thousand have a investment in Silver with another one in the thousand a amount larger than just a few thousand dollars worth
-which I base on fact I've brought and sold bullion online -trademe etc 99% I've sold brought from auckland etc if we were in a mania I have buyers sellers in my town etc

Yeah Skol you a legend mate you went on and on (much like you do on Gold/silver)on Oil being in a bubble can't remember when you exactly started probably when it broke through $40bbl ....then when it spiked on spec buying to 140's it was short lived then well oversold on the back of the GFC (mass credit woes thanks to bubble is free money + bad debts) to what the 30's for round the same short amount of time then it just started to trend back to it high demand tight supply prices now it's at $120bbl brent going forward I think we'll see new 150+ highs within couple years ...so really your time of glory in the big picture is very small

I agree one day Silver will go into a real bubble territory prob round $400-$500oz at which time we could see a massive crash but to 200-300oz but we'll awhile of yet

[Skol]

I agree one day Silver will go into a real bubble territory prob round $400-$500oz at which time we could see a massive crash but to 200-300oz but we'll awhile of yet

You should definitely hang on to it until it gets to $400/500 oz.

[JBmurc]

You should definitely hang on to it until it gets to $400/500 oz.

Well thats always been the plan my kiwi saver - may take 20yrs or IMHO it will be many less with worldwide current reserves not going last much past this decade of course new discoveries will come about with higher margins
but when you think mankind was mining Silver 4,000+yrs ago.plus the new huge demand for silver electrics etc
1 billion oz p.a silver demand not far away
50yrs of production not meeting demand, paper shorts, recycling, bank stockpiles filling the gap......

[Skol]

Trader bets $1m that silver will fall 37% by July to around $25.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/silver-smart-money-gets-bearish-20110415-080253-031.html

[Skol]

If I was in AYN, I'd bail out; today. I've just had a look at the chart.

Hope you took my advice from the other day shasta.

[JBmurc]

Hope you took my advice from the other day shasta.

your be wishing your'd taken many on here's advice on you fav USD downfall

US debt just gone throught the 14.3 trillion debt ceiling on the -Us debt clock.........................

[denpal]

Anyone see the 5kg block on trademe? sold this morning for $8,250 = $NZ51.32/oz. Good buying.

[JBmurc]

Anyone see the 5kg block on trademe? sold this morning for $8,250 = $NZ51.32/oz. Good buying.

nan missed that one have got two 5kg bars paid only round 4k ea

I see there's one 1oz silver eagle on trademe with bids at $75

[shasta]

nan missed that one have got two 5kg bars paid only round 4k ea

I see there's one 1oz silver eagle on trademe with bids at $75

Wonder what the chinese panda 1 oz coins are worth now, i got them for a friend, she'll be happy

[Skol]

Wonder what the chinese panda 1 oz coins are worth now, i got them for a friend, she'll be happy

One sold for $66 dollars the other day on Trademe.

Do you think she'll take some profits or wait until the implosion occurs and let them languish in the bottom draw until 2034, when according to one commentator, silver will hit new highs again?

The sales numbers of American Eagles has gone exponential.

Full-on silver mania, think it might be time to sell some silver ingots before the bubble pops.

[shasta]

One sold for $66 dollars the other day on Trademe.

Do you think she'll take some profits or wait until the implosion occurs and let them languish in the bottom draw until 2034, when according to one commentator, silver will hit new highs again?

Think it might be time to sell some silver ingots.

I got them when silver was either 13 or 17 an ounce, so will follow the trend while its strong & trending up

[JBmurc]

I got them when silver was either 13 or 17 an ounce, so will follow the trend while its strong & trending up

yeah I'm in no hurry to sell any but just keep adding when funds allow the long term bull in silver has many years to run..
For one as long as the US debt in increasing billions per week along with the majority of the world pretty simple debt+debt =more debt + more inflation of real assets
Think of debt as alcohol and silver of water if you keeped drinking vase amounts of alcohol yet you wanted to be sober how does increasing the amount of alcohol help?

the Skols of the world call out that Silver is in a bubble and will crash to 2007 levels etc but how can it when the USD is getting created and devalued at an increasing rate with no end in sight Obama calls for tax on the rich,spending cuts gee did he only just work that out after his continuing of Bush's free money = growth policies

[shasta]

yeah I'm in no hurry to sell any but just keep adding when funds allow the long term bull in silver has many years to run..
For one as long as the US debt in increasing billions per week along with the majority of the world pretty simple debt+debt =more debt + more inflation of real assets
Think of debt as alcohol and silver of water if you keeped drinking vase amounts of alcohol yet you wanted to be sober how does increasing the amount of alcohol help?

the Skols of the world call out that Silver is in a bubble and will crash to 2007 levels etc but how can it when the USD is getting created and devalued at an increasing rate with no end in sight Obama calls for tax on the rich,spending cuts gee did he only just work that out after his continuing of Bush's free money = growth policies

Im not quite so bullish, Silver has run very hard & from memory Hoop pointed out to me that Silver never retested its $31/oz support level.

In a few months the US will cease the $75b monthly injection, & that could be the catalyst for the $USD to strengthen, & precious metals to take a breather

But bubble, conspiracy or whatever no use fighting the strong upwards trend at the moment, just how much is left in this run is the million $ question!

Meanwhile Silver closed up 57c to $US43.95/oz ;)

[Skol]

I've used this analogy before somewhere, but here it is again.
When the day of reckoning arrives, it's like someone yelling "FIRE" in a picture theatre. The quick ones get out first, the rest get killed in the rush.

[JBmurc]

I've used this analogy before somewhere, but here it is again.
When the day of reckoning arrives, it's like someone yelling "FIRE" in a picture theatre. The quick ones get out first, the rest get killed in the rush.
--when the US dollar collapses

[Skol]

--when the US dollar collapses

The USD will not collapse, it's a wetdream that goldbugs perpetuate.
You could think of assets like gold, silver, USD, AUD etc. as a form of barter, eventually the USD will become cheap enough & punters will buy it.

In the meantime silver especially has appreciated with the chart going parabolic, punters are ecstatic thinking of all the money they're going to make, but too naive to realise that such an exponential increase in value spells extreme danger.

Silver mania is not a major mania and won't inflict serious financial damage except on a few funds and punters unfortunate enough to be owners when it turns south.

Here are just a few indications of a mania, see if they're familiar:

Most spec. manias are fuelled by easy money & credit - plenty of cheap money at low rates right now and silver's cheap enough for the average Joe to get into.

Spec. manias are characterized by ever-widening acceptance.

Always supported by authoritative opinion that reassures speculators. e.g Marc Faber, Cramer & Jim Rogers.

Participants ignore the voices of doom.

It's impossible to forecast a top in a spec. mania, investors losing the ability to think rationally.

All manias end abruptly and with little warning.

Goldbugs rubbish the idea when floated that they will not be able to exit in time. They are right, everyone else is wrong. They assure everyone they will know by carefully studying charts when it's time to bail out, but my guess is that 99% of those holding physical metal when the implosion occurs will be putting it in the bottom drawer.
Some will see the initial 'correction' as a chance to top-up not realising like the '87 crash that it's a minor respite before a major fall.

[trackers]

I've used this analogy before somewhere, but here it is again.
When the day of reckoning arrives, it's like someone yelling "FIRE" in a picture theatre. The quick ones get out first, the rest get killed in the rush.

You've been yelling FIRE in the theatre for a few years now, and not a single person has even stood up.

[Skol]

You've been yelling FIRE in the theatre for a few years now, and not a single person has even stood up.

'Years' is an exaggeration, in the case of gold 15 months. One observer in the FT a few months back reckoned gold could be overvalued by up to 70% so I'm not alone.

[JBmurc]

Well everything up on kitco Silver once again outperforming Gold every week it moving back to the 500yr average + world markets all up--Oil&gas up --------the USD down .71.....................hate to be hold USD over the last few months

[asc4]

FIRE FIRE! .... silver is on Fire! Over 45 usd.

[Skol]

Incredible Charts are warning of a blow-off on silver.

[lawrence]

Hit $46 then back down to $45.9 http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

[Skol]

FIRE FIRE! .... silver is on Fire! Over 45 usd.

Yep, going up a dollar a day, about 2%, all the hallmarks of a classic bust on the horizon.
$46.35 at the moment.

In 1980 the POS plunged 50% in 4 days, you reckon we can beat that this time?

[JBmurc]

Yep, going up a dollar a day, about 2%, all the hallmarks of a classic bust on the horizon.
$46.35 at the moment.

In 1980 the POS plunged 50% in 4 days, you reckon we can beat that this time?

depends if the COMEX stops the fair market of long orders like last time or should we call them the scamex

[Skol]

depends if the COMEX stops the fair market of long orders like last time or should we call them the scamex

Nothing to do with the Comex or anything else, a goldbug conspiracy theory.

It'll fall when the last dollar's in. Who knows what it'll go to, all reason is out the window.

In the last major gold crash in 1980, punters, or should I call them gamblers, were projecting the price forward based on the existing increase. e.g., at the moment silver's going up US$1 per day, so some will be guessing that in 30 days time it'll be $76.

65% / month, not bad, better than any ponzi scheme I've read about.

The conspiracy theorists are guessing someone's trying to corner the market according to the FT, in which case a 50% plunge could be on when the party's over.

Might even 'go to the moon' in the meantime. LOL

[stevo1]

Nothing to do with the Comex or anything else, a goldbug conspiracy theory.

It'll fall when the last dollar's in. Who knows what it'll go to, all reason is out the window.

In the last major gold crash in 1980, punters, or should I call them gamblers, were projecting the price forward based on the existing increase. e.g., at the moment silver's going up US$1 per day, so some will be guessing that in 30 days time it'll be $76.

65% / month, not bad, better than any ponzi scheme I've read about.

The conspiracy theorists are guessing someone's trying to corner the market according to the FT, in which case a 50% plunge could be on when the party's over.

Might even 'go to the moon' in the meantime. LOL

Sold yours yet skol?

[Skol]

Sold yours yet skol?

Half of it.

[shasta]

Half of it.

I'm waiting for you to tell everyone you bought a stack of AYN, when i posted about it & ya 200%+ up & having us on ;)

[Skol]

No PM for me shasta, own BT Natural Resources Fund and heaps of AUD, enough risk there.

To give you an example of the kind of mentality out there at the moment here is the first sentence of a letter I've just been reading:

"It is theoretically impossible for gold and silver to ever go down in price but only to continue to go higher and higher."

LOL, boy is this guy a newbie or what.

[shasta]

No PM for me shasta, own BT Natural Resources Fund and heaps of AUD, enough risk there.

To give you an example of the kind of mentality out there at the moment here is the first sentence of a letter I've just been reading:

"It is theoretically impossible for gold and silver to ever go down in price but only to continue to go higher and higher."

LOL, boy is this guy a newbie or what.

Someone offloading there physical stuff?

Common sense (which isnt that common!) says the harder something runs, the bigger the "blowoff" when it happens, Silver paused in the low 30's then carried on

From a demand/supply perspective all the mints that would send out the "all gone" emails, are starting to send out the "now in stock" emails...

Funny how the supply has increased since Silver hit $40/oz...

I got a few 1oz coins while Silver was in the $US13 - 17/oz range then stopped buying

[Skol]

Hopefully this will end the myth that we're running out of silver.


Yes - we missed the silver bullion boat (though we do hold some silver mining stocks). Now we watch from afar as the band keeps playing and everyone keeps dancing. Our only comfort? We won't be there when the boat sinks.

In two years, the price of silver has nearly quadrupled, to about US$44 from about $12. Even after adjusting for a weaker US$, the increase is a stunning 320%.

Is it demand? Perhaps those silver-coated nano-tubes are not so nano? Or is it supply? Have we hit peak silver already? As far as we can tell, it's neither.

Silver demand has been flat for the last decade. It was 874 million ounces (moz) in 2001 and 879moz in 2010. Nor have the users changed. In 2001, industrial and photographic demand for silver was about 563 moz or about 65% of total demand. In 2010 it was 560 moz and 64% of demand. And whereas industrial demand has grown, it is completely offset by declines in photographic. "Ornamental" demand - jewelry, silverware and coins - has also been steady at around 318 moz in 2010 or about 36% of the total.

Nor is there a shortage on the supply side. Total mine production was 736 moz in 2010, up 21% from 2001 production. On top of that, add 215 moz of recycled silver and 45 moz of silver inventory sold into the open market (mainly by Russia) and the total silver available in 2010 was 996 moz, or 116 moz more than total fundamental demand. In other words, there is more than enough silver to meet genuine demand.

[denpal]

John Embry from Sprott's is worth listening to: http://goldsilver.com/new/king-world-news-audio-interview-john-embry-%282%29/

[Skol]

I listened to it. The usual stuff, manipulation etc., he's got a vested interest in it going higher so he's hardly likely to express doubt.

I've watching the internet for news articles on gold/silver for the last few days. After one article which advised caution, there were 53 letters. 50 of them rubbished any idea gold could reverse. Only 3 said that it was /could be a bubble.

On chat rooms on silver, there's almost no doubt whatsoever that it's going up....up....UP. $240 one dude reckons, $100 is a good number too.

The parabolic and vertical nature of the chart on silver which at its current rate of 800%p.a has 'investors' undaunted.

Investor psychology is fascinating, there's loads of enthusiasm and euphoria with speculation where it'll be next week, next month. It could well go higher, I have no doubt it will, but any suggestion that this could end in a violent, ruinous, climax is met with jeers of derision.


If the rumour is correct that someone, company or country is trying to corner the market it's almost certain this will be the final outcome.

As one punter stated on a chatroom, "silver's got a long way to go yet, the average person doesn't understand".

[denpal]

Well, I can't believe how high it's got. Too high too fast. The eventual correction will be scary for latecomers. The price rise is exaggerated by the USD's weakness also. I will buy again when the price does correct. It'll be interesting seeing a decent correction unfold too......$40 then $37? But when, that is the question.

[Skol]

One commentator reckons that precious metals investors "are going to be handed their heads".

800% p.a. Not bad. Pretty hard to beat considering interest rates in first world countries vary between .1% and 5% p.a. That dimwit Mark Hotchin was offered 960% p.a. and he lost the lot.

Maybe readers could have a look at the chart on this page and indicate where they reckon silver's at. Whaddya think JB? The delusion stage maybe?

http://steadfastfinances.com/blog/2009/11/14/the-psychology-of-bubbles-using-hindsight-to examine-why-we-bought-into-the-hype/

The 1987 stockmarket crash looked just like the chart above. I had an aquaintance who had just retired and unwisely invested a large amount of his superannuation in the NZ market. When the market began to fold it dropped about 20%. The gentleman concerned received a call from his broker telling him it had hit rock bottom and to throw everything at it, which he did. This was the point where it says 'bull trap' on the chart. The market rose marginally and finally crashed losing about 75% of its value.

[Skol]

We might further up the chart than I anticipated JB.
Here's some headlines a few days ago from the Bank of Montreal. These analysts will probably be the boys straight out of university trying to make a name for themselves.

BMO On A "New Paradigm For Silver"

We had the NASDAQ crash but the last real decent implosion worth watching was the Enron debacle in 2001. The current ongoing property crash is like a train wreck in slow motion, quite tedious. A pussy crash.
Maybe there is really a 'new paradigm' in silver and if I can quote (now incarcerated) Jeffrey Skilling of Enron fame as he used to rebuke the doubting thomases, "you just don't get it".

[JBmurc]

yeah your right SKOL I just don't get it buying Silver in the teens what a stupid boy ...I should have listen to you
-Don't worry skol one day like Oil- Silver will have a major pullback then you can post how wise you were how stupid us silver bugs are LOL even though it will be at a much higher price again within a short time...

So skol what's the view on the USD and the growing 14 trillion debt + 70+ trillion unfunded liablites that only increases you must surely believe the US is going to fix that how??? they are at their debt ceiling ....

[shasta]

yeah your right SKOL I just don't get it buying Silver in the teens what a stupid boy ...I should have listen to you
-Don't worry skol one day like Oil- Silver will have a major pullback then you can post how wise you were how stupid us silver bugs are LOL even though it will be at a much higher price again within a short time...

So skol what's the view on the USD and the growing 13 trillion debt + 70+ trillion unfunded liablites that only increases you must surely believe the US is going to fix that how??? they are at their debt ceiling ....

How many months left of the $US75b monthly injections, 1, 2 max?

Surely not enough to keep fighting everyones war's, pay off there substantial debt repayments & fund there out of control healthcare costs?

Might start looking at the companies who make the machines that print money ;)

[percy]

How many months left of the $US75b monthly injections, 1, 2 max?

Surely not enough to keep fighting everyones war's, pay off there substantial debt repayments & fund there out of control healthcare costs?

Might start looking at the companies who make the machines that print money ;)

I think you may be wasting your time shasta as I expect the US has already brought them.!!!

[Skol]

Might start looking at the companies who make the machines that print money ;)

You might be able to buy some cheap silver bullion shortly. You could have a talk to JB to see if he'll open up his heavily reinforced bottom drawer.

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Bubble.gif





http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Silver425.gif

[Skol]

Was $46.52, now $48.42.

[winner69]

Was $46.52, now $48.42.

The 'NEW PARADIGM' kicking in then Skol?

[Skol]

The 'NEW PARADIGM' kicking in then Skol?

Looks like it silver dudes are going to make their fortunes - maybe. Hit $49.75 a few minutes ago, up 8% today, not bad.

Is it scary JB?

A guaranteed, gold plated, gilt-edged investment.

[Corporate]

I like what your saying Phaedrus. Good depiction of the current situation.

[JBmurc]

Looks like it silver dudes are going to make their fortunes - maybe. Hit $49.75 a few minutes ago, up 8% today, not bad.

Is it scary JB?

No

Is it scary being so absolutely dis-connected from the world's financial reality..........

Still waiting on your view on how the likes of the US will stop the debt from smashing through their debt ceiling and keeping on treading to an even higher amounts of debt or are you one of the true loonies that believe the US will be able to just wipe the debt out for free and start again...
--- well worth looking at the numbers

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Phaedrus you believe Silver will be collapsing soon back to the low teens??going from you T/A view point you should go short on silver if your really bearish.

the people I know that have brought Silver bullion like myself are for sure enjoying the ride but treat is more so as a long term 10yr min hold
if silver collapsed to $10oz we will still hold(and buy more) keep rising to $100 we will still hold ....It's not like I'm out trading it...
Shares different story if GRM comes out with some high grade results and the SP doubles I'll be taking some profits of the table

[JBmurc]

how much of the run over the last week has been from many short orders buying out their position's of major pain .....some of these large shorters must be in the hole muti billions,,, back to the fed for a top up for the next assault..


--------------------------------------

Japan to withdraw 78 billion (a huge amount will be US debt bonds anybody want to give the US some money??)

bernanke to talk absolute bollocks later in the week (most likely bah bah we do have US job growth!!? bah bah we are in control of our debt!!??............no wonder you like him Skol)

USA biggest export US Dollars

[Skol]

how much of the run over the last week has been from many short orders buying out their position's of major pain .....some of these large shorters must be in the hole muti billions,,, back to the fed for a top up for the next assault..

Fotr the last 42 years my job has entailed travelling through multiple time zones so I do have sleeping tablets on hand if you need them, but if the worst come to the worst I can't help with anti-depressants.

[JBmurc]

Fotr the last 42 years my job has entailed travelling through multiple time zones so I do have sleeping tablets on hand if you need them, but if the worst come to the worst I can't help with anti-depressants.

Don't worry Skol I have no trouble sleeping or need for Anti-depressants if silver is $10oz or $100oz

[gazprom1]

Don't worry Skol I have no trouble sleeping or need for Anti-depressants if silver is $10oz or $100oz

It sure has been a nice ride JB...I never expected silver to be where it is today when I bought it back 12 months ago. I thought it would be a long term holding to get to where it is today. I have not thought about selling down but may start looking for alternative investments.

PS. Nice rise for ARV on friday....=)

[JBmurc]

IMHO Silver is in the second of three bullish phases some very bullish talk on CNBC towards silver good to here some real facts towards an assets class

So with Silver starting to get some decent attention whats posters year end predictions (yes this means one must walk the talk)
I know Skol's already down down crash smash sub $10oz bah bah..
from Phaedrus post I'd say his T/A skills are looking to a major crash anyday

My prediction of course has been the same for a few years now(basically debt out of control,real money assets increases etc) IMHO silver will break $50 this upcoming week and may well move towards 52-53 before taking a major breath back down $8-$10 towards a base in the low 40's..before mid year ...late 2011 Silver to once again to continue the march back over 50 toward a 2011 close 60-70

[JBmurc]

It sure has been a nice ride JB...I never expected silver to be where it is today when I bought it back 12 months ago. I thought it would be a long term holding to get to where it is today. I have not thought about selling down but may start looking for alternative investments.

PS. Nice rise for ARV on friday....=)

fair enough mate any ideas ?? aways like to know others alternative view points
personal It's a long term hold for me

yeah looking forward to ARV growing another leg on good drill results

[hal]

fair enough mate any ideas ?? aways like to know others alternative view points
personal It's a long term hold for me

yeah looking forward to ARV growing another leg on good drill results

Apparently there is a story around today on another Gold thread saying that China could be setting up Sovereign Funds to buy Precious Metals & ENERGY with their Foreign Reserves(They may have up to 3 Trillion USD).

I wonder if this is what is causing the buying in Precious Metals today.

If so maybe this rise isn't so short term.

Anyway it pays to keep an open mind on these things.

[Skol]

I suppose anything's possible. Even the educated, alleged intelligensia get blinded by their own BS in a speculative mania, although it's hard to believe sane people woiuld buy in at these levels.

At the moment the gold and silver snake-oil salesman are touting precious metals as a risk-free trade, something we all know doesn't exist.
In a few weeks time, at this rate silver will make nice paperweights. There's still probably money in it, anything's possible.
JB thinks it's going to $400/500 oz.

In 1929, a Yale economics professor, Irving Fisher secured himself a spot in crash history with the following statements;

He concurred that there might be a drop in stock prices but "not anything in the nature of a crash".

On October 15th 1929 Fisher said "stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau".

The 'new paradigm'.

[hal]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Bubble.gif





http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Silver425.gif

Phaedrus

Just out of interest.

Did the chart help you to buy silver in any part of this rise.

There was a nice ABC correction there in January and of course there was an opportunity when it broke its high at about $30 after the ABC correction was confirmed.

[Phaedrus]

Having been an active participant in the last Silver bubble, Hal, I had no desire to be in this one, so no, I haven't bought any of the shiny stuff this time round.

I was young and inexperienced back then, and found myself left holding many kilos of Silver that suddenly nobody wanted. Nasty. Hard to forget. I had believed that precious metals didn't just represent value, they were value. I no longer hold that belief.

I don't know how old you are Hal, but just in case you have no first-hand knowledge of such matters, here is a chart of the last Silver bubble that you can compare with the current one. You may see similarities or then again, you may consider that "this time it is different".......

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SI1980.gif

[gazprom1]

Having been an active participant in the last Silver bubble, Hal, I had no desire to be in this one, so no, I haven't bought any of the shiny stuff this time round.

I was young and inexperienced back then, and found myself holding many kilos of Silver that suddenly nobody wanted. Nasty. Hard to forget. I had believed that precious metals didn't just represent value, they were value. I no longer ascribe to that belief.

I don't know how old you are Hal, but just in case you have no first-hand knowledge of such matters, here is a chart of the last Silver bubble that you can compare with the current one. You may see similarities or then again, you may consider that "this time it is different".......

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SI1980.gif

Even if Silver reverts to the mean (as per your chart) and it does it in spectacular fashion (that is, very quickly), those investors, like JBM, will still be sitting on very large gains. I am not sure at what JBMs average price is but he has been advocating silver for sometime so it could well be below $15. That could imply a return of more than 50% should silver return to the mean of your charts...not too bad given the timescale IMHO. I bought silver in early 2010 for a number of resons (diversification being one of them) and even if silver reverts to the mean in your charts I will still be sitting on healthy profits. Silver is and will be a valid investment for many investors.

Gazprom

[hal]

Having been an active participant in the last Silver bubble, Hal, I had no desire to be in this one, so no, I haven't bought any of the shiny stuff this time round.

I was young and inexperienced back then, and found myself left holding many kilos of Silver that suddenly nobody wanted. Nasty. Hard to forget. I had believed that precious metals didn't just represent value, they were value. I no longer hold that belief.

I don't know how old you are Hal, but just in case you have no first-hand knowledge of such matters, here is a chart of the last Silver bubble that you can compare with the current one. You may see similarities or then again, you may consider that "this time it is different".......

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SI1980.gif

I knew there must have been some involvement there as your posts were more like warnings.

I actually think it may be different this time as there appears to be very large demand coming from a number of different avenues.

Asian buying doesn't seem like a short term thing as they see it as monetary(from what i can tell).
The uses are also numerous in solar, electronics, medical etc. and supplies are not certain. My reason for saying this is that a lot of Silver comes from base metals mining. If the world economies slow down silver production will drop.

Anyway time will tell us. It certainly wouldn't hurt for it to have a breather here maybe back to $40 but I will be happy if it finds a temporary consolidation around this price.

[Skol]

Hey Jb,
Just in case you think I'm all hot air I am on the other side of the trade.

I dollar cost average buying US Stocks on a monthly basis. On commentator reckons the US market is the cheapest asset in the world.

[CAM]

Looks like we are still at enthusiasm with greed and delusion still to come.
Might hold my silver a bit longer yet then :)
I have sold some "junk" silver that I picked up below spot quite some time ago though.

[corran]

I suppose anything's possible. Even the educated, alleged intelligensia get blinded by their own BS in a speculative mania, although it's hard to believe sane people woiuld buy in at these levels.

At the moment the gold and silver snake-oil salesman are touting precious metals as a risk-free trade, something we all know doesn't exist.
In a few weeks time, at this rate silver will make nice paperweights. There's still probably money in it, anything's possible.
JB thinks it's going to $400/500 oz.

In 1929, a Yale economics professor, Irving Fisher secured himself a spot in crash history with the following statements;

He concurred that there might be a drop in stock prices but "not anything in the nature of a crash".

On October 15th 1929 Fisher said "stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau".

The 'new paradigm'.

I think silver has definitely got ahead of itself but, aside from the price rise, I don't see much evidence of a speculative mania. I've read stories about the mania that preceded the 1929 crash and back then it seemed like every man and his dog was piling into shares. It seemed much the same just prior to the 2000 dot com bubble crash. I remember being in New York in April 2000 and everyone was talking about shares and dot com start ups, etc. You couldn't help but overhear that talk in the cafes and pubs.

Maybe it's different in NZ but over here in Holland I don't see any of that sort of mania. I talk about investments with quite a few people and I don't know anyone who owns gold or silver. It's hardly in the news and the few coins there are for sale on the dutch version of trademe don't normally attract that many hits.

So if it's a speculative mania who are the people fueling it?

[Skol]

Mostly it's the goldbug community. It's not a huge mania but all the signs are there. It's not on the scale of 1929 or the NASDAQ meltdown, but small manias occur every now and then and most people don't know. In the 1990 Japanese stockmarket and property meltdown most didn't have a clue, it was largely confined to Japan except for Japanese speculators buying most of Hawaii and half of California.
In the Japanese property boom and meltdown the Imperial palace in Tokyo, 7.41 sq.km., was reckoned to be worth more than all the real estate in California, 424,000 sq.km. Sounds dumb now but it was serious at the time. Americans sold colossal amounts of real estate to Japanese speculators and bought it back at a fraction of the price a few years later.

All the signs are there, chatrooms are full of it, the most notable indication being that those who disagree are cavalierly dismissed and derided as
being ignoramuses, unaware of the US debt problem and what a no-hoper Bernanke is. If you read some of these posts, many aren't from super-intelligent people.

There's also the "you just can't miss" attitude. They're getting rich and that's all there is too it, no risk. Gold and silver is very big in the USA, it's been pushed by Glenn Beck on Fox and he's got a big following. I've watched a few of his programmes and I'd rate the guy a turkey. Beck was rumoured to own lots of gold.

Speculation is rife in India and new derivatives have been invented to cash in on the silver boom.

A mania isn't obvious except in retrospect, what few warnings exist are usually ignored.

[JBmurc]

Having been an active participant in the last Silver bubble, Hal, I had no desire to be in this one, so no, I haven't bought any of the shiny stuff this time round.

I was young and inexperienced back then, and found myself left holding many kilos of Silver that suddenly nobody wanted. Nasty. Hard to forget. I had believed that precious metals didn't just represent value, they were value. I no longer hold that belief.

I don't know how old you are Hal, but just in case you have no first-hand knowledge of such matters, here is a chart of the last Silver bubble that you can compare with the current one. You may see similarities or then again, you may consider that "this time it is different".......

Fair enough Personal I don't think Silver is anywhere near bubble territory for one you state with T/A charts Silvers price rise is like in 1980 $10-$50 is very like today's, so 2011 must also crash also like 1980? without much fundamental reason for why it would devalue so much in USD when their is trillions of more fiat USD around and less above ground Silver stockpiled.
some facts one must think about....
-In 1980 an average house in NZ cost round 40,000 dollars (silver got to the high of $50oz) today NZ average house price is round 340,000 -yes it's called inflation
it happening to most assets Silver has been one that hasn't keeped up well with inflation
-back in 1980 US interest rates spike into double digits today rates are held low while inflation is going up.
-The spike of silver back in 1980 was helped hugely by derivatives futures long shorts etc the hunt brothers but the comex changed the rules to suit other interests on the short side basically increasing the margin and amount of longs while letting the shorts a one sided bet to load up and help collaspe the market price.
- the last Silver bubble in one year silver went up 700% percent before crashing currently for the last year silver has gone up 150% fact
-
-Fact Gold & silver has never collasped in value 5,000yr+ has always held value
-As for Fiat currency there has never been a Major Fiat currency that hasn't collasped within a short time in the history of mankind.
http://dailyreckoning.com/fiat-currency/

So is it different this time?????wake up

Peter schiff the guy thats been right for the last decade
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-Sv3g7XZdM

[Skol]

the last Silver bubble in one year silver went up 700% percent before crashing currently for the last year silver has gone up 150% fact
-
-I could just keep going on but must eat

The last silver bubble went up 700%, but this one's only gone up 150% in the last year, I make it $175%, but either way is it normal?

The gold/silver bugs bang on about M1/M3/Euro/PIGGS/China/India/Oil leak/North Korea/QE1/QE2/QE59/US Debt/Benanke/Fed/Obama/Interest Rates/Glenn Stevens/what the the psychics say & ad infinitum.
What they don't talk about much is sentiment. If the gold/silver speculators get out of bed one morning and decide to sell, then it's panic stations. PM speculators tout PM as liquid, but I've yet to hear how you dump silver bullion by the kilogram in a rout.

Tell us JB.

I've time on my hands at the moment and I've been looking around. I'm detecting some fear.

[JBmurc]

what Fear LOL I've brought another 62oz silver in the last couple weeks I don't live in Fear of what some speculators do with their silver jeez if Silver did pull back futher say to the low 40's and some NZ speculators started to dump hundreds of kilo bars on trademe $1 reserve I'd sell 100k worth of shares overnight and start buying..
It's one of my long term investments along with property , shares , business interests...etc

when silver goes up more than 500%+ in a year then I'll be worried, till then I'll keep with the trend

"Mostly it's the goldbug community. It's not a huge mania"-Skol- LOL yeah right Skol average joe blogs worldwide have made gold/silver go up over the last 10yrs LOL you might not of heard or read much on these pages but the fact is the biggest buyers of real Gold Silver are Countries(india 400t etc) , major investment funds(recent texas uni,) etc not some mum and dad investors even though it may have helped with a few dollars of movement.

[hal]

The last silver bubble went up 700%, but this one's only gone up 150% in the last year, I make it $175%, but either way is it normal?

The gold/silver bugs bang on about M1/M3/Euro/PIGGS/China/India/Oil leak/North Korea/QE1/QE2/QE59/US Debt/Benanke/Fed/Obama/Interest Rates/Glenn Stevens/what the the psychics say & ad infinitum.
What they don't talk about much is sentiment. If the gold/silver speculators get out of bed one morning and decide to sell, then it's panic stations. PM speculators tout PM as liquid, but I've yet to hear how you dump silver bullion by the kilogram in a rout.

Tell us JB.

I've time on my hands at the moment and I've been looking around. I'm detecting some fear.

Looks like US interest rates are on hold and QE is continuing.

Very bullish for Gold & SILVER apparently as they went up substantially overnight.

[Skol]

Here's a guy that talks some common sense:

www.investmentu.com/2011/April/protect-your-silver-profits-now.html

[Skol]

Volume in silver has gone exponential, so a possible top is in sight. I'm quite prepared to take the flak if I'm wrong. I've warned of a bubble, but now I'm warning of a top.
One of the beauties of a bubble is that other opportunities will have been overlooked.

If trillions of dollars exits precious metals, where will it go?

Stocks, property, cash, bonds, farmland, corn, uranium, etc?

[drillfix]

Hi Skol,

You dont need to warn of a top, you should caution folks on the potential of a double Tops.

Meaning a failure to break and hold above $50US then we will have our double tops on Silver hence there is no reason for the commodity to not technically treated or traded any different.

Gold on the other hand seems to be having $1,500US as a support zone now so if this becomes continually respected, then any failure with silver to break above 50US as a double top should only or potentially viewed as temporary.

But in all honesty, who knows though. Silver may even play out to go a higher to say 55 or 60 dollars US and then back to and below 50 dollars support breach and then Fail to break 50 again causing a Head and Shoulders pattern which maybe by then THAT may trigger the fall or decline.

But then again, maybe not. Time will tell and only at that time we can certainly know what happened, but I do agree with you though to look out for the warning signs along the way.

Cheers~!

[STRAT]

I've warned of a bubble, but now I'm warning of a top.
Hi Skol.
Thats a bold and brave call. It will come one day. Could be tomorrow but its not there yet.

You have to admit its an awsome chart. Though it might be a bit keen to be buying, anyone who got in a ways back should have plenty of time to get off with a hadsome profit.

[Skol]

Hi Skol.
Thats a bold and brave call.

I know JB will rub my nose endlessly in it if I'm wrong, but where will all that cash go if I'm right?

[winner69]

Phaedrus chart a few pages back made mention of a "NEW PARADIGM"

Here's a paper from a permabear (so it must be a load of ****) who also mentions a NEW PARADIGM .... where commodity prices will continue to rise and rise .... maybe not tomoorow or next week but well into the future

Goodness gracious - aewnowed permabear buying commodities even at todays prices .... strategy being putting a quarter of target in now and if by any chance the prices collapse next week buying heaps and heaps

Must admit got a few gold bars recently .... only hope the wife remembers which pot plants they are in ahe decides to repot them


http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetterALL_1Q11.pdf

[Skol]

The high prices and colossal volumes in SLV could be an indication that the end is not far off.

Definition of an economic bubble: "trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values."

[Skol]

MarketWatch) -- Silver prices fell sharply in early Monday trading in Asia, with the spot price plunging more than 10% in a matter of minutes, according to Kitco data. By 9:30 a.m. Sydney time (7:30 p.m. U.S. Eastern time), spot silver traded at $43.63 an ounce, recovering from below the $43 level earlier in the day. At one point early Monday, the price dove 12% within 11 minutes, according to Dow Jones Newswires, which put the intraday high at $48.15 before a plunge to $42.21. Some reports pointed to low volume, due to holidays in some markets Monday, as exagerating the move, and said the sharp drop pointed to a speculative move against the silver price. On the futures market, silver for July delivery was down 9.6% at $43.965.

[Skol]

if Silver did pull back futher say to the low 40's and some NZ speculators started to dump hundreds of kilo bars on trademe $1 reserve I'd sell 100k worth of shares overnight and start buying..

Off you go, or is it the bull trap?

[CAM]

I couldn't see any $1 reserve bars

[Skol]

I couldn't see any $1 reserve bars
Who's gonna be that stupid?

Maybe $2.

[CAM]

Who's gonna be that stupid?

Maybe $2.

I thought you might be getting rid of your ones :)

[Skol]

I thought you might be getting rid of your ones :)

Already gone, top price.

[Skol]

SLV ETF down 9% and First Majestic down 11%.

Where are you JB? Feeling a little shellshocked? I would be too if my 2000 oz hoard started declining at 1%/minute.

[drillfix]

Now now Skol,

No need to try to rub pie in someones face with a decision they have made for their own belief's.

I am sure JB has exposed himself to what he feels his needs or %'s are so no need to persecute the person for their decision as the market will and can expect such volatility. IMO

[skid]

Bit of a bounce back now-looks like there are plenty still happy to buy-Osama is gone,but not that much has really changed out there IMO

[Skol]

I know you guys all like a laugh so here's part of a post grizzling about the Perth Mint site going down, coincidentally, at the same time silver was declining at 1%/minute. (Spelling and punctuation partially corrected)

'In news the temperature certainly has changed since yesterday I believe this is directly correlated to jp morgan naked shorting silver and we should definitely see price increase to 1000 in the coming hour.'

Posted on the 2/5.
Isn't it hilarious? Great entertainment I tell you. The gold/silverbug obsession with the shorters and J. P. Morgan, who, at JPM headquarters, must howl with laughter at some of the amateur stuff.

PS. Forgot about the dreaded 'manipulators and banksters'. LOL

[JBmurc]

Off you go, or is it the bull trap?

Yeah I don't see much cheap bullion for sale $60oz+ NZD as my average is in the high 20's I'm a happy camper also on the silver price pull-back very happy as we all know the last Silver boom that went bust went up 700% in a year this current pull-back is very healthy
much rather a slow and steady rise for the rest of the year which IMHO is very likely with the USD to see huge ongoing negative pressures
and here at home another week another 300mill ticked up to be paid back later....
Now what was that price you were harping on about silver falling too at the start of the year skol

[Skol]

Been very quiet recently JB, are you sure the Mrs. isn't on your case?

[JBmurc]

Been very quiet recently JB, are you sure the Mrs. isn't on your case?

for the last 7 days I've been away ,Mrs on my case for working too much yes but she's very happy about the new house --as I've been 93sqm garage :)

[Skol]

The party's over. Looking around though, this is all the manipulators fault, 'the invisible hand at work'. LOL

Goldbugs don't accept PMs are just declining, it's someone elses fault, not theirs.

PM speculators shouldn't be too despondent though, I've been reading about a chartist who says they will make new highs.

In 2034.

Another sign of a top, a quote from Barrons:

'The sharp decline coincidentally occurs less than a week after the Silver Institute, an industry trade group, announced that it would, for the first time since 2009, issue a report on investing in silver, which the group said is "proving to be the investment metal of choice among investors".'

[drillfix]

For what its worth, here is a news flash message I jut got from IB.

=========================
To NYMEX,NYSELIFFE traders:
Tue May 3 04:38:47 2011 EST

In light of the recent extreme volatility on the silver contracts, the
various exchanges that trade silver derivatives are expected to increase
margin requirements on these contracts. As the increase is anticipated
to be approximately 20%, we will be requiring an additional 25% cushion
of margin on top of the exchange-mandated maintenance margin
requirement. We anticipate this change will become effective as early as
12pm EST on 3 May 11.

For example, for the SI futures on NYMEX, as the expected NYMEX-mandated
margin requirement will be US$12,000 for each contract, we will be
requiring US$15,000 maintenance margin for each contract.

To anticipate the sudden increase in these margin requirements, our
initial margin requirements on the affected contracts were raised to
180% of current maintenance margin levels. The aim of this preemptive
change is to avoid adverse impact from the expected maintenance margin
increase. Thank you for your understanding.
========================


I guess if they are upping the % they are trying to reduce the Qty of folks moving to the short side all at once which would in turn crash the price.

In chat somewhere I put in that silver has a support around 40.80 - 41.00 approximately which we could/should see a short bounce from that.

Failing that it will be $35.70 and failing that $33.90 approximately.

Actually, perhaps I need a chart as I am writing those from memory but you get the picture.

As always, time will tell.

[Skol]

It's reported on the WSJ website that George Soros is selling gold and silver. The implosion must be near.

[JBmurc]

It's reported on the WSJ website that George Soros is selling gold and silver. The implosion must be near.

LOL it's called a healthy consolidation --41 looks like a strong resistance point over the last 24hr looks to be bouncing up to 42 over the last 2hrs I believe this move in the silver price to be a very healthly correction unlike doomdays boy scout Skol "the implosion is near!!!"

[Skol]

Might do but it's probably the bull trap, the last gasp before the patient finally expires.

In the meantime NZD plunging against AUD. I'm luvvin' it.

[JBmurc]

Might do but it's probably the bull trap, the last gasp before the patient finally expires.

In the meantime NZD plunging against AUD. I'm luvvin' it.

yeah we will see-

another take on a margin increases

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/three-times-in-five-days.html

[JBmurc]

Jim rogers like myself would be very happy with the current pull-back in the silver price

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-Mq6zuHiJ8

[drillfix]

Here is a chart of good ole silver.

Silver daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/bgu9yl7vv9my2ybbtbzq_Silver.png

Support level obvious but should they fail, look for the range somewhere in the drawn box for next potential targets

Cheers~!

[skid]

Interesting link JB Its obvious that the POS has been hammered by 3 succesive margin increases-The real question is why-what is the reasoning behind this-if its the reasons the link suggests,the we could be in for another ride up--time will tell

[upside_umop]

The reason? It's volatile and if liquidity falls out then the CME would be left with a short fall. They are covering their back. No other conspiracy....they don't want traders to 'lose money' or 'go broke' as then they would have no business!

I have just got a 'breaking news' story hit saying that Carlos Slim is actively selling silver futures.

[drillfix]

UM,

I guess if the pack follow to the short side because it looks like a Top has been made and then all the Shorters of silver jump on board (hence the IB message previously posted with margin increase) then surely this helps to add to the fall.

At some stage I feel we WILL get a bounce, but whether or not that bounce will re-test new highs is another thing, but time does tell as we all know.

Also goes to show that what goes up that fast can also come down equally as fast. And in the current climate I am not surprised to see a couple of bucks shaved off the price overnight.

[Skol]

The party's definitely over, full crash mode for silver. $36 and still going, almost vertical. Down 9%.

You should be in boots and all JB.

USD is way up.

[Pumice]

a fall of $10 in a matter of weeks, thats not a healthy correction, thats certainly a crash. seems a bit excessive though given that the AUD and most other currencies against the USD are still relatively strong.
I've been following this thread for months, has been very interesting, cheers guys.

[Skol]

ETF SLV down 12%. Looks like the dollar won't be confetti after all, good call by the FT yesterday, hit the nail on the head.

It's getting a bit windy here lately JB, I'm in the market for some cheap doorstops and paperweights.

I don't know how many times I've read that posters here and elsewhere have recommended that friends and family buy gold and silver, wouldn't mind betting there'll be some strained relationships ahead.

Where silver has gone, gold will surely follow. The goldbugs as I've previously mentioned say this is not their fault, it's now George Soros's fault, and one poster wants Seal Team 6 to take him out. LOL