Depression - Stage 2 - Dead Cat Bounce, theres a good chance it will happen

[tricha]

Dam, I hope Mike is wrong, another year like 2010 would be just dandy! :p

The ASX Threads have gone back to exuberance, what does Warren quote, be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful, hmm.
I am back to 60% cash,

Can anyone out there tell me why I should not be fearful. :confused: This could be Mac'S year.:t_up:


Dead Cat Bounce - Bernanke Dumber Than Gold - Get Out Of Stocks - Mike Maloney
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=419aPXb7Uhg

$10 Oil? Mike Maloney Schools Bankers on Deflation, Gold and Silver (Part 1 of 2)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=iv&v=uzef43gdupk&annotation_id=annotation_163018 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=iv&v=uzef43gdupk&annotation_id=annotation_163018)

[STRAT]

Dont be afraid. This stuff cant be good for your blood pressure Tricha.

Just get off the Hamster wheel at the next red vertical line. Until then make Hay and enjoy the sunshine.

[Huang Chung]

I've got that feeling in my bones as well T.

It's just been too easy to make money of late.....if you start to believe that's situation normal, you are in a fools paradise.

[soulman]

Dont be afraid. This stuff cant be good for your blood pressure Tricha.

Just get off the Hamster wheel at the next red vertical line. Until then make Hay and enjoy the sunshine.

I am with you there Strat. Also, when there is signs of damage, there is always room to exit at a reasonable loss.

I have seen so many day traders pulling the market at the mo.

[Huang Chung]

T, what stocks are you holding at the Mo?

BPT, TTY??

[drillfix]

I've got that feeling in my bones as well T.

It's just been too easy to make money of late.....if you start to believe that's situation normal, you are in a fools paradise.

Agreed HC, lots of stocks running like the wind and only on Hot Air again, with views of people who believe the path is laid in Concrete or set in stone, whilst everything can change just so fast in the flash of an eye and be completely different.

It has been said on these boards previously either by Bermuda or JBmurc I think but I also agree, Beware of the Black Swan. Yet the funny thing about the Black Swan is it happens only when its not meant to or happens just when nobody thought it could, yet it does.

If you asked me, still too much debt, lies or deception buried away all over the joint for my liking.

Good post there T, though always debatable with the people that say, when, and what, who are where, as even that could be classed as speculative to only the way they think and significant, yet maybe not exactly precision or precise.

[Corporate]

Dont be afraid. This stuff cant be good for your blood pressure Tricha.

Just get off the Hamster wheel at the next red vertical line. Until then make Hay and enjoy the sunshine.

STRAT, what does the red line represent?

[The Big Ease]

no signs of anything remotely resembling a depression.
If anything global trade is on the up, manufacturing indices are up in most of europe and asia AND the US.

Markets might be tempted to form a head and shoulders but the fundamentals don't support it. Economic activity is increasing throughout the world.

Bad news does not create a lingering bad smell anymore. We have near contagion in Europe with Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain (almost!) and the market dipped, then continued.

There will be winners and losers. Winners will outnumber the losers and the overall market sentiment will be quite strong.

[Phaedrus]

Mike Maloney?

A guy with "a twenty year entrepreneur background in sales and manufacturing for trade show production firms"?

The guy who then set up GoldSilver.com - an online precious metals dealership?

The guy who claims that gold will reach $15,000/oz?

He must be a really nice chap because he wants to sell his gold to you for less than a tenth of that price!

[gazprom1]

Tricha,

Markets go up and markets go down. We will have market depressions and we will lose some money. However, provided you are either smart or patient, you can continue to make lots of money and a depression may mean that we make more money than normal.

I am going to make some today and possibly take a little profit off the table=)=)

Gazprom

[h2so4]

I agree Gazprom, as a value investor there will always be opportunities to take profits, add to or open new positions.

[STRAT]

Hi Corporate. They are just markers for the trendline breaks. I use vertical lines because they go through the indicators as well so its easy to see where other indicators fire in comparison. I will put a sample on the Breakout thread. Hanging out in this one makes me nervous :scared:

[Corporate]

Thanks STRAT

[trackers]

You'd think we're at dizzying heights... The ASX ALL ORDS closed flat for the year. . 12 months and no gains. Its also about where it was for much of 2006.

[JBmurc]

Mike Maloney?

A guy with "a twenty year entrepreneur background in sales and manufacturing for trade show production firms"?

The guy who then set up GoldSilver.com - an online precious metals dealership?

The guy who claims that gold will reach $15,000/oz?

He must be a really nice chap because he wants to sell his gold to you for less than a tenth of that price!

that evil man selling people precious metals for the same any bullion dealer would sell you it for....when the fiat USD crashes in value under it's mass of Q.E 1,2,3,4 etc those buyers will be in trouble won't they holding true wealth

[Phaedrus]

Maloney is not evil, JB.
He's just another entrepreneur talking his book, trying to make a buck.
It's his opinion that is worthless.
Did you know that he predicts oil will fall to $10?
Inflation/deflation - what's the difference eh?

[Hoop]

Mike Maloney?

A guy with "a twenty year entrepreneur background in sales and manufacturing for trade show production firms"?

The guy who then set up GoldSilver.com - an online precious metals dealership?

The guy who claims that gold will reach $15,000/oz?

He must be a really nice chap because he wants to sell his gold to you for less than a tenth of that price!

Yeah a really nice guy;)
This video
(PART 2!) $10 Oil? Mike Maloney Schools Bankers on Deflation, Gold and Silver (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wrrzsrb-wg&feature=related)

A must watch video for the humour alone...it shows Mike teaching the Russian Bankers simple TA the Maloney way....nice colourful animated charts lots of H&S and dead cats bounces to scare the sh1t out of you

..and the Russian time keeper telling him he's running out of time and please end before he wakes his audience up.:D

The really scary thing is not the TA crap that Mike raves on about but the postings below the video box from viewers praising him....oh dear..:(

EDIT: the above video was dated September 2010...so with 3 months of the extra data we now know Maloneys commodities diving forecast on his charts hasn't come true (yet?)

[winner69]

Hoop - nothing to do with this thread but you might find this interesting
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2011/01/04/in-defense-of-the-old-always.aspx

[STRAT]

Yeah a really nice guy;)
This video
(PART 2!) $10 Oil? Mike Maloney Schools Bankers on Deflation, Gold and Silver (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wrrzsrb-wg&feature=related)

A must watch video for the humour alone...it shows Mike teaching the Russian Bankers simple TA the Maloney way....nice colourful animated charts lots of H&S and dead cats bounces to scare the sh1t out of you

..and the Russian time keeper telling him he's running out of time and please end before he wakes his audience up.:D

The really scary thing is not the TA crap that Mike raves on about but the postings below the video box from viewers praising him....oh dear..:(

EDIT: the above video was dated September 2010...so with 3 months of the extra data we now know Maloneys commodities diving forecast on his charts hasn't come true (yet?)Thanks Hoop that was a decent giggle. If thats news to Bankers its no wonder the world is in trouble.

His closing line " nice to kick some arse" lol. If you plan to kick the arse of some 7 foot Russian Banker best done when hes asleep I reckon. Lucky for Mike they all were. :D

[STRAT]

What amazes me more than anything about this thread is that Tricha is now posting proponents of TA. :ohmy:

[Hoop]

Hoop - nothing to do with this thread but you might find this interesting
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2011/01/04/in-defense-of-the-old-always.aspx

Ahhh..the eternal "modern" argument ...The "New" normal verses mean reversion.

A great link from you ...as always... thxs W69..

I loved the Historical S&P 500 PE Ratio chart:);) it looks a bit scary doesn't it?

Hmmmm may add to it and post it

EDIT: Strat ...yeah...A Yank kicking arse in Russia.... an example of the "New Normal" :D

[drillfix]

This is turning out to be an interesting read with all these opinions, keep it up folks. :)

[Hoop]

I loved the Historical S&P 500 PE Ratio chart:);) it looks a bit scary doesn't it?

Hmmmm may add to it and post it
:D

Posted here http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets&p=332041#post332041

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=Phaedrus;332013]Maloney is not evil, JB.
He's just another entrepreneur talking his book, trying to make a buck.
It's his opinion that is worthless.
Did you know that he predicts oil will fall to $10?

personal I don't think his Opinion is worthless , he has many times shown historic facts to back-up his argument why Gold will increase and why demand of oil will wane ....
IMHO I can't see GOLD at 15k oz or Oil at $10 but I do believe he is right why Gold/silver will increase in value

[tricha]

Dont be afraid. This stuff cant be good for your blood pressure Tricha.

Just get off the Hamster wheel at the next red vertical line. Until then make Hay and enjoy the sunshine.


http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/paperclip.png Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=3137&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1294225349 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=3137&d=1294225349)

Dear me Strat, your picture tells an interesting story. When did the stimulus package kick in, to create this illsuion all is well. $6,000,000,000 is probably half the truth. Maybe u or Phaedrus could draw it in on your picture to get the full story.

My blood pressure is fine Strat and for Huangs request, I have sold half my BPT, all my TTYand JBM.

I have kept half BPT, increased my FML (gold), hold a big loss on some AWE and a small one on PPP.


4 January 2011 Last updated at 22:33 GMT Share this page

US Federal Reserve to press on with QE2 stimulus plan

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/50115000/jpg/_50115848_010423257-1.jpg The Fed raised questions about the strength of consumer spending
Continue reading the main story (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12116223#story_continues_1) US Economy


The Federal Reserve will continue with its $600bn (£385bn) stimulus programme as it is not convinced by recent signs of a strengthening recovery in the US economy, meeting notes have revealed.
The Fed acknowledged the improving outlook, but said the programme - dubbed QE2 - would continue.

[Phaedrus]

I'm a bit surprised to see you holding BPT Tricha, when your latest guru says oil is going to fall to $10.

Do you not believe him?

[STRAT]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/paperclip.png Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=3137&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1294225349 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=3137&d=1294225349)

Dear me Strat, your picture tells an interesting story. When did the stimulus package kick in, to create this illsuion all is well. $6,000,000,000 is probably half the truth. Maybe u or Phaedrus could draw it in on your picture to get the full story.

My blood pressure is fine Strat and for Huangs request, I have sold half my BPT, all my TTYand JBM.

I have kept half BPT, increased my FML (gold), hold a big loss on some AWE and a small one on PPP.


4 January 2011 Last updated at 22:33 GMT Share this page

US Federal Reserve to press on with QE2 stimulus plan

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/50115000/jpg/_50115848_010423257-1.jpg The Fed raised questions about the strength of consumer spending
Continue reading the main story (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12116223#story_continues_1) US Economy


The Federal Reserve will continue with its $600bn (£385bn) stimulus programme as it is not convinced by recent signs of a strengthening recovery in the US economy, meeting notes have revealed.
The Fed acknowledged the improving outlook, but said the programme - dubbed QE2 - would continue.Hi Tricha.
Not sure about that but if you give me the dates Id gladly add em in.

You will get no argument from mw that the US economy is built on fairytales and fairy dust. All Im saying is every one with their eye on the ball will be able to get out in an orderly fashion and those who get out if/when the outing comes will get an opportunity to make some gains on re entry. If the markets are for the next few years as they have been for the last few I am going to be fine and likely to do well from the TA camp.

Oil at $10 is very very unlikely but if it happens production will stop ( or it will go into storage ) and there will be an opportunity once again for some stellar gains when it bounces back with a gush.

Gold.
Most gold bugs seem somewhat over attached emotionally to their investments I reckon but if they are winning then power to em and me as I have a few gold stocks. Check out GOR. Its already had a stellar run but if you look over the FA I think you will agree its future looks good. Strike that great with huge huge potential upside.

Last year was my best ever. Around 200% up over all and I can put it mainly down to 4 things.

Better surfing skills while riding the markets emotional waves
Getting out and staying out after those red lines appear
Phaedrus
Steve Flemming

When that next red line appears I will happily put it all in the bank. Unhappily pay my tax and wait for the next blue one however long it takes.

[trackers]

Nicely done Strat.


Getting out and staying out after those red lines appear - Check!
Phaedrus - Check!
Steve Fleming - Check!
Better surfing skills while riding the markets emotional waves - :( ....will do better this year!

Still a great year, learned plenty and the 5 year plan is well in tact

[STRAT]

Hey Trackers I forgot the 5th thing.

[STRAT]

A fairly decent chunk of good luck :lol:

[ENP]

Depression or no depression by the looks of it we aren't in a stock market crash or a stock market boom. The market is just muddling around with no clear direction.

How do you then know if we should be fearful or greedy?

[STRAT]

Depression or no depression by the looks of it we aren't in a stock market crash or a stock market boom. The market is just muddling around with no clear direction.

How do you then know if we should be fearful or greedy?Hi ENP
dont be either. Both are too emotional.
Isnt it great that its just muddling about. All you have to worry about right now are individual stocks.

[tricha]

Hi Tricha.
Not sure about that but if you give me the dates Id gladly add em in.

You will get no argument from mw that the US economy is built on fairytales and fairy dust. All Im saying is every one with their eye on the ball will be able to get out in an orderly fashion and those who get out if/when the outing comes will get an opportunity to make some gains on re entry. If the markets are for the next few years as they have been for the last few I am going to be fine and likely to do well from the TA camp.

Oil at $10 is very very unlikely but if it happens production will stop ( or it will go into storage ) and there will be an opportunity once again for some stellar gains when it bounces back with a gush.

Gold.
Most gold bugs seem somewhat over attached emotionally to their investments I reckon but if they are winning then power to em and me as I have a few gold stocks. Check out GOR. Its already had a stellar run but if you look over the FA I think you will agree its future looks good. Strike that great with huge huge potential upside.

Last year was my best ever. Around 200% up over all and I can put it mainly down to 4 things.

Better surfing skills while riding the markets emotional waves
Getting out and staying out after those red lines appear
Phaedrus
Steve Flemming

When that next red line appears I will happily put it all in the bank. Unhappily pay my tax and wait for the next blue one however long it takes.

Hmm Strat, u r going to be to late, expect the DOW to do a 1000 point slide over night.

Listen carefully - those who can not remember the past, are condemed to repeat it. :scared:
When will America Collapse? .....answers from Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Gerald Celente and others

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7e8GMfjgE58&feature=related

[shasta]

Hmm Strat, u r going to be to late, expect the DOW to do a 1000 point slide over night.

Listen carefully - those who can not remember the past, are condemed to repeat it. :scared:
When will America Collapse? .....answers from Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Gerald Celente and others

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7e8GMfjgE58&feature=related

Tricha

The US still has 6 more months of $75b a month injected into the economy, & whilst its akin to pumping someone on life support full of drugs to keep them going, i cant see the US dying anytime soon.

If it does Gold & Silver will skyrocket

When the Chinese start taking there money out of the US, i'll be worried then & not before

[tricha]

I'm a bit surprised to see you holding BPT Tricha, when your latest guru says oil is going to fall to $10.

Do you not believe him?

Greed or fear, greed or fear, Phaedrus. Beach has got to go, even though the fundamentals are correct.
I need to go to 80% - 90% cash and the rest in gold stocks.

The oil price will plummet, maybe down to $25, because no one will be buying it for a short time. Beach could ride it out as they have no debt and plenty of cash.
The smart move will be to be out.

Cheers for the comment!

[STRAT]

Hmm Strat, u r going to be to late, expect the DOW to do a 1000 point slide over night.

Listen carefully - those who can not remember the past, are condemed to repeat it. :scared:
When will America Collapse? .....answers from Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Gerald Celente and others

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7e8GMfjgE58&feature=relatedCondemed eh? Thanks for the heads up and can you let me know what you are taking.

As long as I stay away from reading to much from the talking heads it seems like it could be a fun drug.

[JBmurc]

I reckon a major US market fall late this year maybe round 11/11/11 I want to be 50% cash min before this time with the rest of my shares in Gold/silver/REO/U308 companies hopefully many of my holdings have run well before mid year

[gazprom1]

Greed or fear, greed or fear, Phaedrus. Beach has got to go, even though the fundamentals are correct.
I need to go to 80% - 90% cash and the rest in gold stocks.

The oil price will plummet, maybe down to $25, because no one will be buying it for a short time. Beach could ride it out as they have no debt and plenty of cash.
The smart move will be to be out.

Cheers for the comment!

GREED Tricha....you should be 80-90% invested in stocks. We are in for a lovely run, albeit with corrections, over the next 3 to 6 months. Time to fill your boots Tricha - QE2 has just began!!!!! Get onboard. If Brent oil goes to US$10 this year I will buy you a bottle of Cristal...no, I will buy you 2!!!

Gazprom

[Huang Chung]

Just saw some talking head on CNBC saying 2011 will be the year the 'pessimism bubble' will burst...

Tricha, you seem to be adopting a fairly extreme position here. I reckon we are probably due for a good pullback in the junior explorers,but I don't think things are all that bad.

As for $10 or $25 oil, no chance.

[tricha]

GREED Tricha....you should be 80-90% invested in stocks. We are in for a lovely run, albeit with corrections, over the next 3 to 6 months. Time to fill your boots Tricha - QE2 has just began!!!!! Get onboard. If Brent oil goes to US$10 this year I will buy you a bottle of Cristal...no, I will buy you 2!!!

Gazprom

Greed Gazprom, I am going to sleep well 2nite, better when I go 2 80%cash, oil could WELL go 2 $25, the last round it hit $35 a barrell. This round could WELL be worse ?

'America will collapse' :confused:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmTBnhOXufg&feature=related

[tricha]

Just saw some talking head on CNBC saying 2011 will be the year the 'pessimism bubble' will burst...

Tricha, you seem to be adopting a fairly extreme position here. I reckon we are probably due for a good pullback in the junior explorers,but I don't think things are all that bad.

As for $10 or $25 oil, no chance.

Two choices Huang.

1 - I stay in the market for a possible 10% gain for the year.

2 - Take the cash and not risk a 90% loss for the year.

What would u do ???? If America does not buy its 10 million barrels of oil a day, honestly what price will a barrel of oil be?

[JBmurc]

Just saw some talking head on CNBC saying 2011 will be the year the 'pessimism bubble' will burst...

Tricha, you seem to be adopting a fairly extreme position here. I reckon we are probably due for a good pullback in the junior explorers,but I don't think things are all that bad.

As for $10 or $25 oil, no chance.

Yeah CNBC is great 2006-2007 Clips-Peter schiff bear V's CNBC bulls- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0YTY5TWtmU&playnext=1&list=PL5B3BE145E98DD6C7&index=19

[gazprom1]

Two choices Huang.

1 - I stay in the market for a possible 10% gain for the year.

2 - Take the cash and not risk a 90% loss for the year.

What would u do ???? If America does not buy its 10 million barrels of oil a day, honestly what price will a barrel of oil be?

I understand now Tricha why you should go 90% cash. If I was looking at a 10% return for the year, I would also be looking at going to cash and going on holiday so your thought process is correct in that sense. However, most of us are looking at returns far in excess of 10% so the risk/return ratio changes dramatically.

If the US does not buy its oil means there has been a nuclear war and who cares where the price of oil will be???

Gazprom

[Corporate]

tricha, it isn't panic station yet.

the US is still injecting plenty cash into their economy

oil will probably head back up to $150 per barrel before any massive colaspse happens in the US. When we start hitting these dizzing heights it will be time to start getting out.

if oil gets to US$10 per barrel and the US isn't buying. I will leverage to the hilt and take the biggest position in oil. There is only one way it is going from US$10 per barrel.

[h2so4]

I can't see any reason why oil would hit $10-$35 even if we had another dramatic downturn I can't see the current oil demand falling much beyond current usage.

[tricha]

tricha, it isn't panic station yet.

the US is still injecting plenty cash into their economy

oil will probably head back up to $150 per barrel before any massive colaspse happens in the US. When we start hitting these dizzing heights it will be time to start getting out.

if oil gets to US$10 per barrel and the US isn't buying. I will leverage to the hilt and take the biggest position in oil. There is only one way it is going from US$10 per barrel.

I'd like to call it being prepared Corporate, The yanks do not have any money, they have paper by the truck load.
I will be able to sleep soundly at night and not have 2 get up to check the US market.:eek2:
It might not happen, but what I can lose is far greater than what I might gain if I stay in. The odds are in my favour of getting out.

The Brits may crash 1st.?

P.S Anyone out there going to be at the Kumara Races on Saturday, the weather looks great and I will be there for a fun day.


Jan 5 2011 9:02AM

Serious Problems ahead for the British Pound


Last week the British pound fell 3.0% against the US dollar. Some say it was because of UK bank exposure to Spain, which Moody’s warned could be downgraded. Others blamed the UK’s close economic link and heavy debt exposure to Ireland, which Moody’s did actually downgrade last week by 5-levels to Baa1. This low grade is barely above junk status.
These downgrades in different corners of Europe no doubt had some impact on Sterling’s weakness, but there is I think another factor closer to home. It is the growing awareness of the runaway spending and borrowing by the British government.
Despite all the rhetoric and promised cuts in spending by the newly elected coalition, the hard fact is that government spending and borrowing continue to soar – and look as if they are spiraling out of control. The following chart illustrates the magnitude of the problem as UK government debt nears £1 trillion.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/images/jan052010_1.gif
Earlier this year, UK government revenue (the blue line) once again began to grow. It was an indication that the British economy was on the mend after the billions spent on the bailout of Northern Rock and the UK government’s rescue of most of that country’s major banks in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. But look closely at the above chart. Expenditures (the red line) remain on the same well-established upward trajectory, climbing higher every year. This growth in spending is unabated, and is now rising at about the same rate as revenue growth. As a consequence, the country’s deficit has barely shrunk from the record level reached at the depth of the financial crisis.
Note too the accounting sleight-of-hand at the end of 2007. How is it possible that UK government debt grew then even though the budget deficit was negligible?
Following in the footsteps of Greece and other basket-case sovereign debtors so adept at creative accounting, UK government accountants glossed over the Northern Rock bailout, the net effect of which made the deficit in 2007 look smaller. Convenient accounting like this cannot possibly instill confidence in UK government bondholders.
The bottom line is that the UK’s huge deficit is not sustainable. It will lead to ever greater amounts of so-called “quantitative easing” by the Bank of England, and inevitably this money printing – the turning of UK government debt into British pound currency – will sooner or later lead to hyperinflation.
I had always thought that the US dollar would hyperinflate and collapse before any other major currency. Lately, I am not so sure. Government spending and borrowing in the UK look even worse than the dire levels being reached in the US. Therefore, the dubious distinction of being the first currency to hyperinflate in the months ahead may end up going to the British pound.

by James Turk,
December 21st, 2010

[h2so4]

[QUOTE=tricha;332187] The yanks do not have any money, they have paper by the truck load.
[QUOTE]

Doesn't that support a lower US therefore higher oil price?

[Hoop]

Tricia...I didn't know you believed in Secular cycles...good on ya!!

However we have until 21 December 2012** before the world enters a new cultural (spiritual) transition....so January 2011 selling is a little premature don't you think??

** The end-date of a 5,125-year-long cycle of the Mayan Long count Calendar (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayan_Long_Count_calendar)

[trackers]

Interesting article here on aggregate share prices and money supply :

http://mises.org/daily/4654

[tricha]

[QUOTE=tricha;332187] The yanks do not have any money, they have paper by the truck load.
[QUOTE]

Doesn't that support a lower US therefore higher oil price?

Catch 22. higher oil prices = demand destruction.

Anyway have you folks out there been doing your homework on the Great Depression. ( Actual history tells us we have one ever 70odd years to clean the system out)

Round one of this deep recession is the making for a re-rating, called the 2011 Great Depression.

The last one also had this.

10 January 2011 Last updated at 02:25 GMT
Brazil Finance Minister Mantega warns of trade war

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/49273000/jpg/_49273724_guidomantega.jpg Guido Mantega coined the term "currency war" last year
Continue reading the main story (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12148841#story_continues_1) Related stories


2011: A year of substantial economic risks (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11809424)
What do we mean by currency wars? (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11722578)
Currency war's key battlegrounds (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11711611)

Brazil has warned that the world is on course for a trade war because of what it says is currency manipulation by China, the US and others.
Finance minister Guido Mantega said Brazil was preparing moves to prevent further appreciation of its currency.
He said his government would raise the issue at the World Trade Organization and the G20 group of rich and developing countries.
Mr Mantega was speaking in an interview with the Financial Times newspaper.
"This is a currency war which is turning into a trade war," Mr Mantega said in his first major interview since Dilma Rousseff took office as Brazil's new president on 1 January.
He said Brazil's trade with the US had slipped from an annual surplus of about $15bn (£9.6bn) to a deficit of $6bn because of US efforts to revive its economy through loose monetary policy.
"The exchange rate is one of the main drivers of economic policy, more so even than productivity," he said.
Mr Mantega added that China's "undervalued currency" was also distorting world trade.
He has been finance minister since 2006. In September last year he accused some rich countries of deliberately devaluing their currencies to boost exports and make their economies more competitive.
The Brazilian real has increased by 39% against the US dollar in the last two years.
Its value has been going up steadily as Brazil's economy has grown, making Brazilian exports less competitive.
Brazil has been swamped by a flood of foreign capital that is taking advantage of low interest rates in the developed world to chase high returns in emerging economies, the BBC business reporter Linda Duffin says.
The International Monetary Fund warned in October that some countries appeared to be trying to use their currencies "as a weapon" and the issue of currency manipulation was discussed at the G20 summit in November

[digger]

Interesting article here on aggregate share prices and money supply :

http://mises.org/daily/4654

Having always read the comments here for some time with interest i would IMHO say that Trackers article here sums up what i think the near future is likely to be money and shareprice wise. That will be the situation for the next few years anyways as right or wrong the world will create money to hang on to the illusion of growth rather than face a major depression.So for this year at least i see SP growth.

[tricha]

Having always read the comments here for some time with interest i would IMHO say that Trackers article here sums up what i think the near future is likely to be money and shareprice wise. That will be the situation for the next few years anyways as right or wrong the world will create money to hang on to the illusion of growth rather than face a major depression.So for this year at least i see SP growth.

Maybe u r right Trackers, 2011 might hang together. Maybe.

Been reading up on the 1929-1940 depression, in the early part private individuals would try and fund the markets to keep it together, they failed as they did not have Fed backing.

This time round, not only have they had Fed backing, but this article will strike a cord.
However they will, as in 1929 fail, oil prices and the imbalance they cause, along with this illusion will see to it.


11 January 2011 Last updated at 08:38 GMT
Japan in pledge to buy eurozone bonds issued by EFSF
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/50540000/jpg/_50540711__50441168_010700800-1.jpg The bail-out deal with the European Union has led to protests in the Irish Republic
Continue reading the main story (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12159399#story_continues_1) Global Economy (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/business/2007/creditcrunch/default.stm)


EU austerity drive by country (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10162176)
In graphics: Eurozone's woes (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10150081)
Q&A: Irish finances explained (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11766346)
Q&A: Why bond markets matter (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11743952)


Japan is to buy bonds from a eurozone rescue fund to help pay for the Irish Republic's bail-out.
Finance minister Yoshihiko Noda said Japan should help to boost confidence in the bonds issued by the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).
It comes a day after Portuguese bond yields hit a new high.
Japan joins China, which has already said it is willing to help European economies exposed to a debt, including Spain, Greece and Portugal.
"It is appropriate for Japan, as a major economy, to buy some of the EFSF bonds" to help boost confidence in Europe's efforts, Mr Noda said.
"We're thinking about buying more than 20% of the amount" of EFSF securities to be issued in the initial round, he said.
Foreign reserves
EU members are planning a bond issuance programme of up to 440bn euros ($569bn; £366bn).
The fund is designed to shore up the Irish Republic and other indebted countries.
The first stage of the programme will issue bonds worth about 3bn to 5bn euros at the end of the month.
Japan is to use euros in its foreign reserves to buy the bonds, indicating there will not be large fresh buying of the euros.
The Nikkei business daily said Tokyo would buy about 100bn yen of bonds, (930m euros).
Meanwhile, analysts believe that while Europe could support Portugal as well as the Irish Republic, a bail-out of Spain would stretch the existing fund.
Greece was the first eurozone nation to take a bail-out when a three-year 110bn-euro deal was agreed last year.
The Irish Republic's 85bn-euro bail-out package was agreed last month.

[tricha]

But maybe u r wrong Trackers, 2011 or 2012, or maybe even tomorrow, who knows, I'm 80% cash and sleeping soundly at nite.
Happy hunting folks. :confused:

The US as deadbeat: discuss

Stephanie Flanders (http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/stephanie_flanders/) | 18:04 UK time, Friday, 7 January 2011


Asked to name the biggest threat hanging over the global economy in 2011, most people will tell you it's the crisis in the Eurozone. Newsnight (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/default.stm)spent a lot of time debating its future only last night.
But since I'm moonlighting tonight as Newsnight's presenter, I decided we should also think about a more distant - but ultimately much larger - cloud on the global economic horizon. That is the possibility of a full-scale loss of confidence in US assets.
It's not an issue for the next few months, perhaps, especially with decent prospects for US growth in 2011. But both at the state and the federal level, America is awash with red ink, with debt rising "as far as the eye can see." Looking at thes numbers, and America's dysfunctiona politics, if investors ever started to question America's creditworthiness, or seriously sell the dollar, it could make the bailouts on the European periphery look like a tea party.
Ben Bernanke, the head of the US central bank got his first chance to address the New Republican congress today. He was cautiously optimistic about the US economy - too cautious for many in the markets - the dollar went down today on the back of his remarks, and some disappointingly weak new jobs figures. But this is what he had to say about the long-term threat posed by America's 1.4 trillion dollar federal budget deficit:
"It is widely understood that the federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path. Yet, as a nation, we have done little to address this critical threat to our economy. Doing nothing will not be an option indefinitely; the longer we wait to act, the greater the risks and the more wrenching the inevitable changes to the budget will be. "
If it were any other country, the ratings agencies would have got that downgrading pencils out for the US a long time ago. The US budget deficit last year was well over 10 per cent of GDP - and thanks to another round of tax cuts, it's going to be at least that high in 2011.
By contrast, the average deficit of the so-called "PIIGs" - the troubled Eurozone economies - was about 7.5 per cent of GDP.
Government debt is rising nearly everywhere, but the IMF forecasts that America's national debt will rise to more than 110 per cent of GDP by 2015 - compared to a developed country median of 81 per cent. And America is the only major economy to have just passes a fresh stimulus package for 2011 and 2012.
The new Republican congress has promised its 'tea party movement' followers that it will cut spending and "take back Washington". Republicans have already supported a new rule, whereby every spending increase has to be matched by a corresponding spending cut. That kind of mechanism has been successfully used in the past to keep a lid on deficits. But there's a big problem: on the new rule, tax cuts do not have to be paid for in the same way.
So, in the new Congress, taxes can go down - but they are extremely unlikely to go up. (Even though, as I've commented before - the IMF and others believe that the US is 'under-taxed'.) And, as the Economist pointed out last week (http://www.economist.com/node/17800111?story_id=17800111), for all the talk of spending cuts - there is a zero support - in or outside Congress for cuts in the benefit programmes for retirees which take up an ever-larger share of the budget.
Though signs of faster growth have pushed up US bond yields in recent months, you have to say that investors have been remarkably calm about all this so far - for the usual reasons. The US is still the world's largest economy and the dollar is still the world's reserve currency. When it comes down to it, there aren't a lot of other places for investors to take their cash. But if the past few years have taught anything it is that once market doubts start to take hold, they can be very difficult to turn around.
Investors may spend much of 2011 watching Congress and the White House battle it out over the budget - with no agreement on any long-term strategy to cut borrowing. They may also shortly get a few frights at the state level, with serious questions now being raised about a California default or messy bailout, for example.
If any of that leads the financial markets to start questioning the creditworthiness of the US government - or the long-term value of the US currency - things in the global financial system could get quite ugly, quite fast.

[STRAT]

Maybe u r right Trackers, 2011 might hang together. Maybe.

.Hi Tricha.
I thought the Item in Trackers post was a goodin too. The above sounds like you are down grading your readiness to DEFCON 2.

Might still be some time to make Hay. What do you reckon? I do feel this thread needs to come with a warning though.

"CAUTION. MAY CAUSE FEAR AND ANXIETY IN OLD PEOPLE AND CHILDREN"

[winner69]

But maybe u r wrong Trackers, 2011 or 2012, or maybe even tomorrow, who knows, I'm 80% cash and sleeping soundly at nite.
Happy hunting folks. :confused:


So if you have moved 80% of your wealth OUT of the market i wonder who has put the equivalent amount IN to the market

Wonder who has made rhe right call?

[Phaedrus]

Depressions and stock market crashes do not come out of thin air. There are always warning signs. No 50% drop can occur with out it being preceeded by 5%, 10% and 20% drops. The chart below shows a range of technical indicators being used to monitor the AllOrds Index. It is easy to see that anyone that was in the market when it was strong (green) and out of it when the market was weak (red) would have done very well indeed during the long Bull market, while missing out entirely on the ensuing slump. These indicators will provide excellent warning of any incipient market weakness.


Can anyone out there tell me why I should not be fearful?Tricha, you should not be fearful just now because every single indicator on the chart below is positive. When the market is positive, you should be too. You can see how supurbly these indicators have worked in the past.


What does Warren quote, be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful, hmm. I am back to 60% cashWell, let's look back and see just how well such an approach works. The market was very Bullish from 2003 to 2007 - a magnificent trough for the greedy. Those that stuck to Warren's dictum would have been fearful and largely cashed up all this time as the Bull market roared on and on. But the uptrend ended. They all do, of course. Suddenly the market was fearful, and, fear being contagious, a steep slide ensued. Those following Warren's admonitions would now be greedy, snapping up the "bargains" that abounded as the fearful dumped their stock holdings. People right here on ST were also buying up large at this time - only to incur huge losses as the slide continued. It is not a good idea to buy downtrending stocks - regardless of the cause of the weakness.


I need to go to 80% - 90% cashNo you don't! That time will come, but it is most certainly not here yet.
Don't listen to the "gurus" - listen to the market.


http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds112.gif

[percy]

phaedrus.
thank you for your updated chart.Nice and easy to follow.

[trackers]

Hey tricha / digger, yeah will certainly be interesting! But the situation whereby money supply is expanding and at least some of that money will flow into equities is a more promising situation for investors than shares rising as capital is shuffled around from other things... Not something I'd considered before.

Also...what Phaedrus says. Crystal ball gazing won't get you anything but stress, just ride the wave and take the first exit when actual evidence suggests its time to do so. Thanks P, good advice as per usual

[stevo1]

Thanks for sharing your vast charting experience P.
I trust you will give us the benefit of your charts WHEN the market turns

[Jay]

Thanks again Phaedrus
Everybody (well nearly) talks about Warren Buffett and his hold for ever strtaegy.
I read something last mid last year where a guy had done a study on what and how long Warren held stocks over the last 30 odd years. From memory the average time held was under 2 years - around 15-18 months i think - don't quote me on it.
And i don't think he advocates buying on the first sign of weakness.

Have been reading Colin Nicholsons book - part way thru - mainly taking about longer term holding but similar to what Mr P says - have a plan/strategy in place as you cannot hold thru thick and thin and expect better returns than managing your portfolio to a degree. yes there are a few exceptions which applies to any rule on the most part

[STRAT]

Thanks again Phaedrus
Everybody (well nearly) talks about Warren Buffett and his hold for ever strtaegy.
I read something last mid last year where a guy had done a study on what and how long Warren held stocks over the last 30 odd years. From memory the average time held was under 2 years - around 15-18 months i think - don't quote me on it.
And i don't think he advocates buying on the first sign of weakness.

Have been reading Colin Nicholsons book - part way thru - mainly taking about longer term holding but similar to what Mr P says - have a plan/strategy in place as you cannot hold thru thick and thin and expect better returns than managing your portfolio to a degree. yes there are a few exceptions which applies to any rule on the most partThere is so much talk about what he does ( rules set in stone for all time ) but I suspect Warren Buffet evolves like everyone else.
I wouldnt be surprised if these days he buys when everyone else is afraid. Tells all his mates he bought and then sells into the rally that follows.:lol:

[Jay]

Wouldn't be surprised Strat

Could well be in reality due to sums he invests with now.
He can't without moving the price so much so probably has a play with pocket money - a small to large fortune to you and I :D

[digger]

The peak oil crisis: civil unrest
by Tom Whipple
0
Please Log in or register to rate this article.

Buried in the millions of words that were written about the shootings in Arizona last week was a recent poll showing that only 13 percent of the American people think favorably of the U.S. Congress. The implication, of course, is that as 87 percent or roughly 270 million Americans harbor some level of animosity towards their elected federal representatives, the emergence of people who believe that exercising their 2nd Amendment rights is solution to the nation's woes is inevitable.

Why are so many, so mad at the Congress? The answer is simple - they have no idea what is happening to their lives. Since the beginning of the great recession way back in 2007 they have been told by two Presidents, their senior officials, 99 percent of the Congress, and most of the media that recovery was on the way and that prosperity would return shortly.

As unemployment in the U.S. grew and grew, every politician with a prayer of winning positioned him or herself as the "jobs" candidate who could and would get us all working at good high-paying jobs again. This of course has not returned and is unlikely to do so. We are not only contending with a growing debt bubble of gigantic proportions, we are also rapidly running out of the cheap, abundant energy that allowed us to be so prosperous for the last 200 years.

America's problem today is that almost nobody in any official position is willing to publically recognize the real nature of the problem we face and start talking about realistic solutions. So long as our elected officials and our media continue to speak endlessly about the recovery that is supposedly underway and continue to hold out the hope that, by voting for this or that candidate, all will be well, the great charade will continue and the people will get madder and madder.

The lack of realism on the part of those in a position to lead public opinion, and the endless repletion of fictions, such as the U.S. unemployment rate now being only 9.4 percent, has left open the door to what were once thought of as extremists to join the political debate and even the Congress. Proposals that are tantamount to national, or perhaps even global, suicide such as defaulting on the national debt, rolling back health care, or dropping environmental regulation are seriously debated as solutions to creating more jobs.

The real problem, of course, is that without a continually growing source of cheap and abundant energy, such as that provided by fossil fuels, there will never again be significant economic growth in the sense to which we have become accustomed. It is inevitable that we are all going to get much poorer, in a material sense, and this is the great secret of our age that so far few have had the courage to express. The easier path has been Keynesian stimulation of the economy, government bailouts of what were held to be key financial and industrial institutions, and tax cuts to mollify those who believe all problems stem from taxes. These measures were accompanied by endless expressions of hope that things would soon be better.

However, as the real economic situation continues to deteriorate in the midst of so little appreciation of why it is happening, frustrations with the political system grows and grows. In America, we have now had a run of well over 100 years with minimal domestic unrest on the scale of the Civil or Indian wars. This, however, may not continue to be the case much longer. As unemployment grows and people see the standards of living they have always known slipping away, their frustrations can take many forms. Last November as a nation we threw out dozens of politicians and replaced them with new faces equally devoid of any comprehension of the problem or what we as a nation will have to do next in order to survive, much less prosper.

Next year we will face another round of elections and all indications suggest that 20 odd months from now our economic situation will be materially worse and gasoline will be approaching unaffordability for many. While realism could surface in the intervening time, the odds are it won't and next year we will be faced with a plethora of silly proposals to deal with imagined problems. As the situation deteriorates further however, some may see violence as the answer to their woes. So far in America violence against individual public officials has been perpetrated by individuals with mental problems or a cause to further. This may not always be the case.

As has been frequently noted by the media in recent days, the level of political discourse in America has been droping markedly in recent years and while no one of any stature seems to be openly advocating violence, some are getting mighty close. Another few years of economic stagnation and increasing unemployment could easily bring us to the point where the line will be crossed.

All this is by way of saying that there is a serious downside to simply ignoring the realities of the current situation and relying on hope rather than leveling with the American people. By failure to guide the country to real solutions to real problems, our leaders are risking increasing violence as the frustrations of an unknowing people continue to grow.


Tom Whipple is a retired government analyst and has been following the peak oil issue for several years.



Tricha i coppied this from TOD which i am sure you will read in any event,but it does show why you are IMHO wrong in going 90% cash at the moment.We seem to agree that this story will unfold in the US but are out by a few years in timing.The bit i particularly like is where no politician knows about it or will talk of the problem and that the voters just elect in new faces to repeat one more cycle of the mess while failing to get to the cause. This needs to run a few more years before the mad crowd takes over.May god pretect the US as the leaders sure are not going to,but this is not this year ---too early.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Great insightful posts. Thanks Phaedrus et al.
Digger - appreciate your comments on timing for the US.
Politicians seem to thrive on giving in and providing people what they think they want - allowing continuing economic and currency lows with bigger gaps and deficits.

[trackers]

There is so much talk about what he does ( rules set in stone for all time ) but I suspect Warren Buffet evolves like everyone else.
I wouldnt be surprised if these days he buys when everyone else is afraid. Tells all his mates he bought and then sells into the rally that follows.:lol:

He sure does - Look at his play in Goldman Sachs. His investment of 5bil during GFC is already showing profit of around 3.5bil in 2 years

[trackers]

Harry Schultz’s last testament

Commentary: Letter gives final investment allocation recommendation



http://www.marketwatch.com/story/harry-schultz-last-investment-testament-2011-01-10


Suitably ominous for this thread :D But bullish on gold, physical goods, commodities, Australasia etc

[Phaedrus]

Thanks for sharing your vast charting experience P.
I trust you will give us the benefit of your charts WHEN the market turnsDon't count on it Stevo - who knows where I will be? You are on your own, mate. Fear not though. You can use free online charting facilities such as Yahoo to generate your own, identical signals. Of course, not all the indicators featured in my chart are readily available but you can see that they all gave roughly equivalent signals and you would be hard-put to find a site that was unable to plot a 200 day Simple Moving Average. A simple chart like this can save you a fortune :-

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds113.gif

You don't need me, my opinions or my charts. Monitor the market yourself. I've shown you how.

[JBmurc]

Will the ASX break 5000 resistance in 2011 the million dollar Question ---IMHO it will before april

[winner69]

Will the ASX break 5000 resistance in 2011 the million dollar Question ---IMHO it will before april

Only a few good days away now .... well before April

Should be 5500 by mid year

[Phaedrus]

Gentlemen, I fear that your estimates may be overly optimistic. Unless there is a palpable disturbance in the Force, the 5000 level will not be broken until Monday 16 June, possibly as late as 3.50 pm.

The Australian market will not regain the heady heights of 2007 until 5/12/12.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds113gn.gif

[STRAT]

Gentlemen, I fear that your estimates may be overly optimistic. Unless there is a palpable disturbance in the Force, the 5000 level will not be broken until Monday 16 June, possibly as late as 3.50 pm.

The Australian market will not regain the heady heights of 2007 until 5/12/12.

Rough translation.

Using Charts to predict the distant future is a load of bollocks?

[Skol]

I reckon a major US market fall late this year maybe round 11/11/11

You've been consulting too many psychics JB.

[JBmurc]

You've been consulting too many psychics JB.

LOL nan just a gut feeling we'll see some more credit woes develop later this year prob round Q.E-- 3

[upside_umop]

A good video on Bloomberg with Geithner talking.
He puts it quite well and has a bit of Q&A at the end.

[Skol]

I reckon we're gonna see 5000 on the ASX sooner than expected, everything looking pretty good, the European crisis is way overdone.

Up 70 today at 4900.

[skid]

Alas-the downside of Democracy
The peak oil crisis: civil unrest
by Tom Whipple
0
Please Log in or register to rate this article.

Buried in the millions of words that were written about the shootings in Arizona last week was a recent poll showing that only 13 percent of the American people think favorably of the U.S. Congress. The implication, of course, is that as 87 percent or roughly 270 million Americans harbor some level of animosity towards their elected federal representatives, the emergence of people who believe that exercising their 2nd Amendment rights is solution to the nation's woes is inevitable.

Why are so many, so mad at the Congress? The answer is simple - they have no idea what is happening to their lives. Since the beginning of the great recession way back in 2007 they have been told by two Presidents, their senior officials, 99 percent of the Congress, and most of the media that recovery was on the way and that prosperity would return shortly.

As unemployment in the U.S. grew and grew, every politician with a prayer of winning positioned him or herself as the "jobs" candidate who could and would get us all working at good high-paying jobs again. This of course has not returned and is unlikely to do so. We are not only contending with a growing debt bubble of gigantic proportions, we are also rapidly running out of the cheap, abundant energy that allowed us to be so prosperous for the last 200 years.

America's problem today is that almost nobody in any official position is willing to publically recognize the real nature of the problem we face and start talking about realistic solutions. So long as our elected officials and our media continue to speak endlessly about the recovery that is supposedly underway and continue to hold out the hope that, by voting for this or that candidate, all will be well, the great charade will continue and the people will get madder and madder.

The lack of realism on the part of those in a position to lead public opinion, and the endless repletion of fictions, such as the U.S. unemployment rate now being only 9.4 percent, has left open the door to what were once thought of as extremists to join the political debate and even the Congress. Proposals that are tantamount to national, or perhaps even global, suicide such as defaulting on the national debt, rolling back health care, or dropping environmental regulation are seriously debated as solutions to creating more jobs.

The real problem, of course, is that without a continually growing source of cheap and abundant energy, such as that provided by fossil fuels, there will never again be significant economic growth in the sense to which we have become accustomed. It is inevitable that we are all going to get much poorer, in a material sense, and this is the great secret of our age that so far few have had the courage to express. The easier path has been Keynesian stimulation of the economy, government bailouts of what were held to be key financial and industrial institutions, and tax cuts to mollify those who believe all problems stem from taxes. These measures were accompanied by endless expressions of hope that things would soon be better.

However, as the real economic situation continues to deteriorate in the midst of so little appreciation of why it is happening, frustrations with the political system grows and grows. In America, we have now had a run of well over 100 years with minimal domestic unrest on the scale of the Civil or Indian wars. This, however, may not continue to be the case much longer. As unemployment grows and people see the standards of living they have always known slipping away, their frustrations can take many forms. Last November as a nation we threw out dozens of politicians and replaced them with new faces equally devoid of any comprehension of the problem or what we as a nation will have to do next in order to survive, much less prosper.

Next year we will face another round of elections and all indications suggest that 20 odd months from now our economic situation will be materially worse and gasoline will be approaching unaffordability for many. While realism could surface in the intervening time, the odds are it won't and next year we will be faced with a plethora of silly proposals to deal with imagined problems. As the situation deteriorates further however, some may see violence as the answer to their woes. So far in America violence against individual public officials has been perpetrated by individuals with mental problems or a cause to further. This may not always be the case.

As has been frequently noted by the media in recent days, the level of political discourse in America has been droping markedly in recent years and while no one of any stature seems to be openly advocating violence, some are getting mighty close. Another few years of economic stagnation and increasing unemployment could easily bring us to the point where the line will be crossed.

All this is by way of saying that there is a serious downside to simply ignoring the realities of the current situation and relying on hope rather than leveling with the American people. By failure to guide the country to real solutions to real problems, our leaders are risking increasing violence as the frustrations of an unknowing people continue to grow.


Tom Whipple is a retired government analyst and has been following the peak oil issue for several years.



Tricha i coppied this from TOD which i am sure you will read in any event,but it does show why you are IMHO wrong in going 90% cash at the moment.We seem to agree that this story will unfold in the US but are out by a few years in timing.The bit i particularly like is where no politician knows about it or will talk of the problem and that the voters just elect in new faces to repeat one more cycle of the mess while failing to get to the cause. This needs to run a few more years before the mad crowd takes over.May god pretect the US as the leaders sure are not going to,but this is not this year ---too early.

[tricha]

Alas-the downside of Democracy

(Tricha i coppied this from TOD which i am sure you will read in any event,but it does show why you are IMHO wrong in going 90% cash at the moment.We seem to agree that this story will unfold in the US but are out by a few years in timing.The bit i particularly like is where no politician knows about it or will talk of the problem and that the voters just elect in new faces to repeat one more cycle of the mess while failing to get to the cause. This needs to run a few more years before the mad crowd takes over.May god pretect the US as the leaders sure are not going to,but this is not this year ---too early.)

WELL Skid u may be right or u may be wrong. However on reading about The Great Depression, the second leg took the stock market down 90%.
The risk out weighs the gains, do u know how long the market takes to go from greed to fear :confused:

"Those who can not remember the past are condemed to repeat it" it should have already collapsed, but external forces came to the rescue, for how long, is the million $ Question.?
It is a bit like the Alpine fault, its overdue, it will happen again! I just hope I am not in Arthurs Pass when it does.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nJ7LM3iyNg&feature=related

'Worst economic collapse ever'

[shasta]

(Tricha i coppied this from TOD which i am sure you will read in any event,but it does show why you are IMHO wrong in going 90% cash at the moment.We seem to agree that this story will unfold in the US but are out by a few years in timing.The bit i particularly like is where no politician knows about it or will talk of the problem and that the voters just elect in new faces to repeat one more cycle of the mess while failing to get to the cause. This needs to run a few more years before the mad crowd takes over.May god pretect the US as the leaders sure are not going to,but this is not this year ---too early.)

WELL Skid u may be right or u may be wrong. However on reading about The Great Depression, the second leg took the stock market down 90%.
The risk out weighs the gains, do u know how long the market takes to go from greed to fear :confused:

"Those who can not remember the past are condemed to repeat it" it should have already collapsed, but external forces came to the rescue, for how long, is the million $ Question.?
It is a bit like the Alpine fault, its overdue, it will happen again! I just hope I am not in Arthurs Pass when it does.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nJ7LM3iyNg&feature=related

'Worst economic collapse ever'



Tricha, your emotions in the market tend to be almost bipolar in there extremes, if you really feel this insecure sell all your stocks & put the money in the bank, dont get all stressed out.

Me personally, i'll back myself to find undervalued stocks in ANY market, as i have done for many years, long before any TA scan picks them up, before HC gets in a lather over them, & before any media website starts pumping them.

There is no replacement for oil at the moment, & unless the price stays well over $US100/bbl for a sustained period, there wont be any time soon.

If the USD or Europe falls over to the extent your posts suggest, then silver & gold will both add a 0 to there current prices!

Following the "smart money" has been a good indicator of late, especially where the Chinese are concerned, Uranium is certainly a specific sector of interest for me in 2011, as are Silver, Healthcare, & certain Bio techs (diabetes & obesity in particular, as the western world gets fatter).

One of the US biggest problems is affording healthcare, only way to control costs is to restrict access, so i see opportunities in that area.

Perhaps the US will stop fighting expensive & needless wars, that might help there economy!

[skid]

I think most would be better off if they would stop doing the war thing,but Im afraid that is one of their more unpleasant economic bailout tools. ...make up a reason and go take what they need...

[h2so4]

Tricha
Are there only Japanese imports on the road?

I'm sure you will find articles like this everywhere you look.

You could try changing your focus.

There are other things happening in the markets. Come back to this stuff later. I'm sure this focus will still be right where you left it.

Be easy Tricha there are two sides to everything.

[Skol]

Tricha,
It ain't gonna happen.
You know what business I'm in and it's mostly discretionary spending.
Going balls to the wall for 18 months and no sign of slowing down.

[STRAT]

Tricha, your emotions in the market tend to be almost bipolar in there extremes, if you really feel this insecure sell all your stocks & put the money in the bank, dont get all stressed out.

Me personally, i'll back myself to find undervalued stocks in ANY market, as i have done for many years, long before any TA scan picks them up, before HC gets in a lather over them, & before any media website starts pumping them.

There is no replacement for oil at the moment, & unless the price stays well over $US100/bbl for a sustained period, there wont be any time soon.

If the USD or Europe falls over to the extent your posts suggest, then silver & gold will both add a 0 to there current prices!

Following the "smart money" has been a good indicator of late, especially where the Chinese are concerned, Uranium is certainly a specific sector of interest for me in 2011, as are Silver, Healthcare, & certain Bio techs (diabetes & obesity in particular, as the western world gets fatter).

One of the US biggest problems is affording healthcare, only way to control costs is to restrict access, so i see opportunities in that area.

Perhaps the US will stop fighting expensive & needless wars, that might help there economy!Some light in here finally. Thanks Shasta.

Heres a couple of things to consider.

The Great Depression and this Recession are not the same as the chart below clearly illustrates. There may be common triggers. I dont know and I will leave that stuff to others who are smarter and can be bothered but they are not similar in behaviour.

It did NOT happen over night. It took a year and a simple knowledge of TA would have got you out with your shirt ON.

The 87 crash was a 23-24% fall in two days. Wow. But even if I was away fishing and missed such an event Id still have my shirt on. Well a singlet at least after the Collar and sleeves had been ripped off.

[tricha]

Some light in here finally. Thanks Shasta.

Heres a couple of things to consider.

The Great Depression and this Recession are not the same as the chart below clearly illustrates. There may be common triggers. I dont know and I will leave that stuff to others who are smarter and can be bothered but they are not similar in behaviour.

It did NOT happen over night. It took a year and a simple knowledge of TA would have got you out with your shirt ON.

The 87 crash was a 23-24% fall in two days. Wow. But even if I was away fishing and missed such an event Id still have my shirt on. Well s singlet at least after the Collar and sleeves had been ripped off.

Very nice pictures Strat.

Yes this time is very different.

1 - Bail outs with phony money. :t_down:

2 - The likes of Japan , China and the Saudi's buying junk bonds, why ? Europe and the States go down, so do they.

3 - Peak oil, without cheap energy, growth is limited or sent into decline.

4 - Printing of junk money, the biggest pozi scheme on earth. Yes the biggest ever con job.:t_down:


The third one is the crunch one, no alternatives.

Simple formula - USA imports 10,000,000 barrels of oil a day @ $20 a barrel $200,000,000 we know what it costs now and they can not pay for it.

Its the same formula for most house holds in the developed world. Quite simple, petrol goes up and your spending on anything else diminishes, consumption is reduced, jobs lost.

Sorry folks, when #2 stops, greed turns to fear in 1 second, it's coming down the track, it could be on Monday or 2 years from now, :eek2: place your bets, I've placed mine.

[STRAT]

4 - Printing of junk money, the biggest pozi scheme on earth. Yes the biggest ever con job.:t_down:

.Hi Tricha.
The Ponzi Scheme has been going since the 70s

The Financial Crisis was all about Banks wrapping turds in Christmas paper. and selling em as investments. That was the Con of the Century. The Scam of the Century was getting Governments to bail em out.

The ultra rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

Business as usual as far as I can see.

These rallies and slides are an opportunity to make a few bucks as long as we dont sell up when the going is good and dont buy and hold.

It wont go from greed to fear in a second. Thats just sensationalism and the same scare mongering you were pedalling over Peak Oil a few years back.

Im not saying things wont turn to crap. Im just saying stepping out and waiting for it is akin to the people who sit on a hill waiting for the end of the world.

Take care that you dont become that fella in your signature.

[Phaedrus]

Tricha, you've got to stop posting this sort of rubbish. It worries me that someone, somewhere might start to believe it.

Here are a few links relative to some of Gerald Celente's previous forecasting efforts :-
2008 http://www.edrants.com/gerald-celente-futurist-fraud/
2009 http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message812290/pg1
2010 http://www.nowpublic.com/world/gerald-celente-predictions-2010-trends-research-institute-2549227.html

2010 was supposed to be the "Summer of Terror" - I guess I missed it.

Look again at the video Tricha posted :-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nJ7LM3iyNg
Now look at the upload date.

I always feel that no post of mine is complete without a chart. Here then is a chart highlighting the exquisite timing and accuracy of one of Mr Celente's regular pronouncements.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/DJI116.gif

[ENP]

I have a question for all you that have been around the block a few more times than me...

In a situation like the economies are in today, it's all pretty doom and gloom, etc. What usually happens next? A long/slow recovery for 5 or so years then another boom and bust?

But with the stock market and the property market, they haven't really declined much as they have both bounced back.

I'm quite confused about all the conflicting information out there. Where are some good websites and/or good books I can read to explain these types of things.

Thanks,

ENP

[Hoop]

Nice DJIA chart P

Nice because (with hindsight) compare to the now famous (notorious?) Prechter EW supercycle forecast chart for 2010 onwards.

So.... the DOW should now be at 2800...

ENP... I Bookmark these type of sites then revisit them ...they are great entertainment value if nothing else...this is one...Over time you get to know who writes rubbish...Believe me there are a lot of famous "guru status" people out there that write total crap.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PrechterForecastfor2010.jpg

[Huang Chung]

I had a look at the market figures showing at the bottom of the YouTube video, uploaded 10 February 2009.

It showed:

Dow 8221
Nasdaq 1592
S&P 865

At the close of the week on Friday, these indices were:

Dow 11787
Nasdaq 2755
S&P 1293

I loved the way the 'interview' kept on cutting to archive footage to support the statements he was saying...i.e. back up words with visual confirmation, even if that visual confirmation was taken years earlier.

[ENP]

So are a few of you here cashing up your gains from the bear market rally and going to sit on it.

Then invest it into the stock market into good companies when there is another stock market crash?

Also, where abouts do you keep your cash when it's not in the stock market? In other investments or just in bank accounts?

[Hoop]

So are a few of you here cashing up your gains from the bear market rally and going to sit on it.

Then invest it into the stock market into good companies when there is another stock market crash?

Also, where abouts do you keep your cash when it's not in the stock market? In other investments or just in bank accounts?

So are a few of you here cashing up your gains from the bear market rally and going to sit on it.....Bear market rally..:confused::mellow: where?

[gazprom1]

So are a few of you here cashing up your gains from the bear market rally and going to sit on it.

Then invest it into the stock market into good companies when there is another stock market crash?

Also, where abouts do you keep your cash when it's not in the stock market? In other investments or just in bank accounts?

Only Bulls at my place no bears ENP. Who said we were having a bear maket rally??? When we have a market correction or crash I put my money into the market - the easiest money is always from the "bottom".

[elZorro]

Have a look at this chart of US commodities (http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2011/01/was-2010-a-bear-market-rally-for-commodities/): maybe it was a bear rally for these. Looks poised to do something horrible?

Or a more evenly weighted commodity index, the CCI (http://www.mrci.com/client/w-crb.pdf): Also peaking strongly. You'd tend not to buy a share that looked like that.

I'm still betting on gold (gold producers), and will wait to see "investors" parked on the sidelines as you suggest ENP, cash in the bank, waiting for the lows. At the same time many will be buying gold.

[STRAT]

So are a few of you here cashing up your gains from the bear market rally and going to sit on it.

Then invest it into the stock market into good companies when there is another stock market crash?

Also, where abouts do you keep your cash when it's not in the stock market? In other investments or just in bank accounts?Hi ENP. By Share Traders standards Im far to young to say Ive been around the block but I have been around the block with threads like this one. My advice is ignore it. Its impossible to sift through the crap ( in terms of which articles/talking heads are worth taking note of ) . There are enough traders here to give you a heads up when its time to pack your bags and go on holiday.

[shasta]

Hi ENP. By Share Traders standards Im far to young to say Ive been around the block but I have been around the block with threads like this one. My advice is ignore it. Its impossible to sift through the crap. There are enough traders here to give you a heads up when its time to pack your bags and go on holiday.

Ya might wanna delete some PM's Strat

[STRAT]

Ya might wanna delete some PM's StratHi Shasta.
Done

[winner69]

This is a good sign

Fund manager optimism on equities hits pre-crisis levels

by Atholl Simpson on Jan 18, 2011 at 13:46

Investor appetite for global equities has reached its highest levels in almost four years as support for the US and Japan continues to increase at the emerging markets' expense, according to January's BofA Merrill Lynch global fund manager survey


and ...

The survey also revealed a growing belief in US and Japanese equities among investors. More than a quarter of managers (27%) are now overweight US equities, the highest reading since November 2008.

[Hoop]

This is a good sign....

Yes..for the first half of this year it seems S&P500 is going to see a rise ...in theory anyway.
The 4 phases of the cyclic Bull market (http://www.gvwealth.com/cms-filesystem-action/4_phases_of_bull_market.pdf)
It seems we have entered Bull market phase 3 this is the rising market part after the breather pause. As the Bull is aging phase 3 and early phase4 could be quick.

Some commentators see a cyclic bear returning late in 2011 as the Bull market is starting to test its boundaries.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For those people who have forgotten their basic business cycle theory and it seems there are a few on ST.....

note: a fall of Commodities in theory falls after stock prices.

I know it is theory and in practice manipulation causing bubbles often occur e.g Real Estate...but we should always remember our basics ...eh?

The 6 stages of a business cycle with respect to Stocks bonds and Commodities

In Technical Analysis Explained, Martin Pring notes that since there are three major financial markets (stocks, bonds and commodities) and each has two turning points in a given cycle, there are six turning points in each cycle. He calls these turning points the six stages and uses them as a reference point for identifying the current phase of the business cycle and by extension the next likely turning point.


Stage 1: Slowing growth rates or early recession. Interest rates start to fall and bonds rally.
Stage 2: Business cycle trough. Stocks begin to rally.
Stage 3: Late recession and early recovery. Commodities begin to rally.
Stage 4: Early recovery. Interest rates trough and bonds peak.
Stage 5: Cycle peak. Stocks peak.
Stage 6: Slowing growth, commodities peak.

The USA ATM seem to be at Stage 4 ready to enter stage 5

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Using the economic clock (http://www.wealthtipsonline.com.au/innercircle/hotopic1.html) the USA seems to be at about 9.30 - 10 o'clock so theory has it again that stocks and commodities are still looking up.
Note the clock hands can only go forward it can pause for long lengths of time or it could spin so fast as to miss stages within the clock therefore the time speed is variable

[tricha]

Tricha, you've got to stop posting this sort of rubbish. It worries me that someone, somewhere might start to believe it.

Here are a few links relative to some of Gerald Celente's previous forecasting efforts :-
2008 http://www.edrants.com/gerald-celente-futurist-fraud/
2009 http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message812290/pg1
2010 http://www.nowpublic.com/world/gerald-celente-predictions-2010-trends-research-institute-2549227.html

2010 was supposed to be the "Summer of Terror" - I guess I missed it.

Look again at the video Tricha posted :-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nJ7LM3iyNg
Now look at the upload date.

I always feel that no post of mine is complete without a chart. Here then is a chart highlighting the exquisite timing and accuracy of one of Mr Celente's regular pronouncements.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/DJI116.gif

Unfortunately Phaedrus, your picture did not include any realism. Gerald Celente called it the way it was, except the Fed took action and prolonged it.. If it was u or I, the bank would have simply forclosed.
Now China has come to the rescue, delayed it again, so yes Strat could well be right, 2011 might just boogie along. And Strat add QE2 to your graph.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2011/1/Pages/Not-Only-Commodities-are-Signaling-Hyperinflation.aspx
Not Only Commodities are Signaling Hyperinflation


The rise in commodity prices over the past several months has been unrelenting. Equally unrelenting has been the stream of central bank apologists aiming to re-direct the blame for soaring prices to almost everything imaginable except the real cause, which of course is unrestrained money printing. Here is a chart that shows rising prices that cannot be blamed on bad weather, failed crops, global warming, a new ice age or sunspots. This chart of the S&P 500 Index shows a near perfect correlation to the Federal Reserve’s money printing, a/k/a “quantitative easing”.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2011/1/PublishingImages/SP_500_and_quantitative_easing_14_Jan_2011.gif
The S&P Index and other stock indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average are not rising because of better economic conditions or an improved outlook for economic activity. Stock prices are rising because of money printing, just like they did in the early days of the hyperinflations in Weimar Germany, Argentina, Zimbabwe and every other country ravaged by misguided government and central bank policies.

[JBmurc]

It will certainly be very interesting what happen to the US market once Q.E-2 runs out....Q.E-3 late this year??

[Hoop]

Hoop,

Rising commodity prices at this juncture of the recovery are required to bring in new suppliers who will in turn increase supply and prices will stabilise and eventually fall some. A normal part of the cycle I think you'd agree. Market's are simply pricing this in (and some return of consumer confidence and rising employment methinks).

An NZ example of this was the aluminium smelter in the south island that shut down last year (year before?) as it simply wasn't ecominic at prices then to keep producing. Anyone remember those great pictures of the dam flood gates being opened as the water (read electricity) being stored was way surplus to requirements with the aluminum smelter shut down.



Yes Agree Belg ...Theory (off the top of my head,,correct me if I'm wrong) has it that there is some sort of Equity/Commodity correlation disconnect midway through a Equity Bull market cycle and then later on commodities rise again

Yep..remember Comalco shutting down..that was the winter I had hot showers without the threat of the ripple control on my meterbox being turned off for most of the day:).

[tricha]

It will certainly be very interesting what happen to the US market once Q.E-2 runs out....Q.E-3 late this year??

QE3 or QEChina, China can not just yet let the US fail, as China will also fail.
19 January 2011 Last updated at 10:54 GMT

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12224578

The US-China power balance

Talks between US President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao are being billed as the most important meeting between the two countries for 30 years. It comes at a time when relations have been strained by issues such as the trade imbalance and China's growing military might.
View the slideshow to find out more.
#ss-us-china-trade{border:1px solid #bdbdbd;} #ss-us-china-trade {width: 464px;}http://www.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/bsp/hi/dhtml_slides/11/us-china-trade/img/us_china_trade_slide01v2_464.gif The US buys far more than it sells to China - the US claims this is because China has kept its currency artificially weak. In fact trade with China accounts for 14.3% of all US trade - the States only does more trade with Canada.

[Skol]

Here is a chart that shows rising prices that cannot be blamed on bad weather, failed crops, global warming, a new ice age or sunspots. This chart of the S&P 500 Index shows a near perfect correlation to the Federal Reserve’s money printing, a/k/a “quantitative easing”.
The S&P Index and other stock indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average are not rising because of better economic conditions or an improved outlook for economic activity. Stock prices are rising because of money printing, just like they did in the early days of the hyperinflations in Weimar Germany, Argentina, Zimbabwe and every other country ravaged by misguided government and central bank policies.

"QE does not lead to additional money in circulation." Quote from Ben Bernanke.

[skid]

I was reading an article about a major bubble in the Chinese investment banking sector-if that one goes,we are in for one wild ride

[JBmurc]

"QE does not lead to additional money in circulation." Quote from Ben Bernanke.

LOL like he has a clue

[tricha]

"QE does not lead to additional money in circulation." Quote from Ben Bernanke.

It's rattling down the pipe Skol and collapse is forthcoming, the only thing we do not know is which day of 2011\2012
It could be this Monday or a Monday next year, having money in the market now is a likening to stupidity, the only companies that might survive are the ones with no debt and cash.
Its so simple, so logical, so compelling.
And I ask you all something, how can it be avoided.

I only has one answer and I heard this from Tony Blairs mouth tonight, man they are getting desperate, "invade Iran".

48 of the 52 States in the US are close to bankruptcy.

A Path Is Sought for States to Escape Their Debt Burdens

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/business/economy/21bankruptcy.html?_r=2 (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/business/economy/21bankruptcy.html?_r=2)

By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/w/mary_williams_walsh/index.html?inline=nyt-per)

Published: January 20, 2011

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/adx/images/ADS/25/39/ad.253961/cedarrapids.gif (http://www.nytimes.com/adx/bin/adx_click.html?type=goto&opzn&page=www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/business/economy&pos=Frame4A&sn2=fb3898ea/b6bbdaf2&sn1=385d8e72/98247ab7&camp=foxsearch2011_emailtools_1604576c_nyt5&ad=CedarRapids_120x60&goto=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Efoxsearchlight%2Ecom%2Fced arrapids%2F)



Policymakers are working behind the scenes to come up with a way to let states declare bankruptcy and get out from under crushing debts, including the pensions they have promised to retired public workers.

.................................................. .................................................. ...............

The U.S. Goes Broke on March 31st
By Greg McCoach | Friday, January 21st, 2011

This was typical of every other empire our world has ever known before their ultimate collapse: the Spanish, Greek, Roman, and British Empires all came to an end because they spent themselves into oblivion — just as the European Union, England, Japan, and the U.S. are doing today.
http://images.angelpub.com/2011/03/7138/jan-2011-debt.png
Just consider how truly desperate some situations have become...
Last week, the state of Illinois increased personal income tax by 66% and corporate income tax by 45%. These increases are designed to address a $15 billion state budget deficit that lawmakers said was leading the state into insolvency.
How long is it before we start seeing headlines that include “State Bankruptcy”?
On its current path, the United States could not possibly meet all of its future obligations. And the end game could mean collapse.
That means as an investor, you need to get your ducks in a row.

[drillfix]

48 of the 52 States in the US are close to bankruptcy.

A Path Is Sought for States to Escape Their Debt Burdens



Policymakers are working behind the scenes to come up with a way to let states declare bankruptcy and get out from under crushing debts, including the pensions they have promised to retired public workers.





The simple and plain truth about everything to do with the United States and its economy is basically this.

If the people, groups, institutions who fleeced the financial system in the first place decided to just give it back they would or could actually save themselves.

But they wont, will they. No they wont, they would rather talk about how bad things are and let the Sh!t hit the fan for the majority when the Fine Clever Smart Few are actually placed to do other bigger and better things with the proceeds they have orchestrated.

One day the whole nation is not going to tolerate what goes on their, and there will be nothing the government can do to stop a new and upcoming internal Rebellion and extreme new culture to put an end to this "Oldest trick in the book", so think that will ultimately be the question rather than what debt burdens there are or how will they get fixed, because they wont, so its the wrong question. Anarchy will and can prevail if the US is not careful, because there will be the day, "it turns on itself" and those who are responsible days will be numbered depending on how this upcoming New Culture decides how to deal with them.

Of course, this is all IMO, not taken from other webpages or persons thoughts, but just the psyche of the Average US Joe whom has completely had enough of it.

add/edit:

Adding a bit of sanity to my post and on track with your post, about knowing when. Well, you are right about not knowing when, but if you can keep an eye on some of the major indicators for Rapid Divergence in Commodity with Inter-market Study from say the likes of John Murphey watching CRB, US Dollar, 30 Yr Bonds, S&P500 and of course gold which will be amongst the CRB but throw it in there too.

This may show you the beginning of the so called end so to speak. Or the beginning of the new Change over of order of things and switching of the new power so to speak (economically).

[winner69]

The simple and plain truth about everything to do with the United States and its economy is basically this.

If the people, groups, institutions who fleeced the financial system in the first place decided to just give it back they would or could actually save themselves.

But they wont, will they. No they wont, they would rather talk about how bad things are and let the Sh!t hit the fan for the majority when the Fine Clever Smart Few are actually placed to do other bigger and better things with the proceeds they have orchestrated.

One day the whole nation is not going to tolerate what goes on their, and there will be nothing the government can do to stop a new and upcoming internal Rebellion and extreme new culture to put an end to this "Oldest trick in the book", so think that will ultimately be the question rather than what debt burdens there are or how will they get fixed, because they wont, so its the wrong question. Anarchy will and can prevail if the US is not careful, because there will be the day, "it turns on itself" and those who are responsible days will be numbered depending on how this upcoming New Culture decides how to deal with them.

Of course, this is all IMO, not taken from other webpages or persons thoughts, but just the psyche of the Average US Joe whom has completely had enough of it.

.

Of course they won't .... esp JP Morgan .... making zillions out of the poor

JPMorgan Is Making Big Money From Food Stamps!

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27301.htm

[STRAT]

Of course they won't .... esp JP Morgan .... making zillions out of the poor

JPMorgan Is Making Big Money From Food Stamps!

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27301.htmIts no accident Bank is a four letter word.
I find the whole thing pretty disgusting but Ive always found banks digusting.

Its pretty tragic that they can make this kind of money and save the Government departments money at the same time.

Speaks volumes about Government agencies eh?

These things will never change.

If those who would like to see a world bank/one bank and one currency get their way it really would be a leap back into the dark ages.

[drillfix]

Of course they won't .... esp JP Morgan .... making zillions out of the poor

JPMorgan Is Making Big Money From Food Stamps!

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27301.htm


And they say its better the devil we know hey, well that sort of thing is all too popular in high level US.

They cannot lose these guys, or the others like them. They are so much part of the system that they cannot fail, and they will continually have their bets hedged each way, either via doom or boom.

Back to the people, and the people who vote these cronies in so they can allow whatever cartoon politics go on behind the scene year after year, decade after decade, and even century after century. One day they will completely wake up to the fact they are continually voting for Nobody Special or different that will change.

I dare not say what they should do, but first and foremost they should be aware, but over half the population over there just dont give a toss or can put the effort in to do something about it. This is the exact way the Upper Society wanted the rest of US society to be like. The country actually needs Bob Dylan to run for president or another Poetic and political truth teller so the actual country will take notice, listen, believe, and actually do something about it rather than just talk.

But yes, good post winner, and yet just another example out of the many of which there are.

[Skol]

'Rattling down the pipe' tricha, one of your hackneyed quotes from the peak oil thread, something else we're all waiting patiently for.

[Phaedrus]

It's rattling down the pipe Skol The Aus market is NOT rattling down the pipe. It has risen 57% in the last 22 months, has just made a new 8 month high and at 1.0, the Market Strength Indicator is as high as it can go. Longterm technical indicators are all positive and nowhere near "caution" levels.


Collapse is forthcoming, the only thing we do not know is which day of 2011\2012. It could be this Monday or a Monday next year.....Tricha, markets do crash - but there is always some warning. The All Ords went "rattling down the pipe" in 2008 - but there were many signs of impending weakness, allowing plenty of time to get out.

If the market was weak and the current plot was Red, I would be right with you, warning anyone that would listen that this was a time for caution. As it stands, our views are diametrically opposed. This, of course, has happened before. In the 2008 crash, you were fully invested and buying all the way down as I kindly, gently and sensitively pointed out that you were foolishly buying into a weak and sliding market. I have taken the diabolical liberty of plotting a few of your comments on the chart below. In short, you were Bullish and IN the market when you should have been Bearish and OUT of the market, while now, when you SHOULD be Bullish and IN the market, you are cashed up and advocating extreme caution!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AllOrds123-1.gif

I doubt that I have ever come across a more determined contrarian or a better example of the folly of getting "out of synch" with the market. Acting in defiance of prevailing market sentiment is a very, very expensive exercise. Fight the market - and you lose.


Having money in the market now is a likening to stupidity.....Quite the reverse, Tricha. The market is currently in an uptrend - at such times it is only sensible to be in.

Investing in a weak and falling market is stupidity.

[Corporate]

Another fantastic post from Phaedrus! Thanks

[winner69]

3187

S&P400 hits ALL TIME HIGH

[Skol]

Yep, nice work Phaedrus, well done.
Tricha rubbished me for recommending airline stocks a year or two back but AIR for example is up 50% from it's low in the last 12 months.

I think we could probably conclude that posts from tricha are contrarian warnings.

[digger]

Yep, nice work Phaedrus, well done.
Tricha rubbished me for recommending airline stocks a year or two back but AIR for example is up 50% from it's low in the last 12 months.

I think we could probably conclude that posts from tricha are contrarian warnings.


I think Tricha will be right in the end but for now is too far ahead of the game.The crash usually has some warning but the 1987 one was severe with little prior hints that could be seen a head of time althought plane in hindsight.So for me QE is just so easy that our great leaders will chose that road rather than the hard pill during their watch. So no crash while QE is the soft and available option.

[trackers]

Hey P any chance you can run the MSI over XEJ and XMM if you get a sec? Please :)

[Phaedrus]

Here's ^AXEJ for you, Trackers.

I don't have ^AXMM Metal and Mining Index on my database, and Yahoo only has 5 days worth of data available for download, so no go on that one.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/XEJ125.gif

[trackers]

Thanks heaps for that, much appreciated! Caution definitely required I think... Being about 90% invested in one GICS sector is certainly rolling the dice lol :)

[tricha]

It's time you did some reading Phaedrus instead of gazing at the clouds.

Charts will tell you history, just like doing a little reseach on the Great Depression.

Whats the Difference between Greed and Fear ? :t_down:

It's all unravelling and its going to relentless I'm afraid.


Fall of Saudi Arabia to End Dollar Reserve System?

http://www.thedailybell.com/1717/Fall-of-Saudi-Arabia-to-End-Dollar-Reserve-System.html

[Phaedrus]

Tricha, do you actually read the stuff that you base your lurid headlines on? For example, the above article states that it is no more than "a tenuous hypothesis" going on to explain that they are "merely trying out different scenarios".
It doesn't do to read too far though - they go on to say "We don't put anything past the power elite anymore. Not since it occurred to us that the NASA moon landings might have been faked". Is that your belief too, Tricha?

At some point, you have to measure your thoughts, ideas and hypotheses against reality. You find this uncomfortable Tricha because when you do so, you experience what is known as "Cognitive dissonance" which is "the mental conflict that people experience when they are presented with evidence that their beliefs or assumptions are wrong." Montier (2002)
Here is a picture of a market that according to you is "rattling down the pipe"!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/SP129-1.gif

I will be cautious when the plot turns yellow, and very cautious indeed when it turns red - but until it does, I will be making hay while the sun shines. Every long spell of good weather comes to an end though and you can rest assured that I will be keeping a very good eye on the clouds - they always give good warning of deteriorating weather.

[skid]

In the USA-record unemployment-record home forclosers-record no. of people on food stamps-and yet the sharemarket is going bonkers...pretty scary stuff IMO

[fungus pudding]

In the USA-record unemployment-record home forclosers-record no. of people on food stamps-and yet the sharemarket is going bonkers...pretty scary stuff IMO


... or maybe there's a whole new bunch of investors who would rather build assets than throw it at retailers and car salesmen and other unnecessary status symbols. After all keeping up with the Joneses has become a lot easier - now that the Joneses are probably living in a tent.

:D :p

[STRAT]

In the USA-record unemployment-record home forclosers-record no. of people on food stamps-and yet the sharemarket is going bonkers...pretty scary stuff IMOHi Skol.
I dont think those numbers have all that much to do with the Markets movement other than to scare retail investers on a daily basis nor is US reporting remotely close to being accurate. In any case it will crash or slide when those at the top want it to and make it happen.

[lissica]

The big worry? Inflation !!! But whats a good hedge against inflation? Stocks!


I was only in Nappies, but I thought the high inflation 1970s coincided with a pretty dismal return from stocks.

[Hoop]

In the USA-record unemployment-record home forclosers-record no. of people on food stamps-and yet the sharemarket is going bonkers...pretty scary stuff IMO
Skid everything is networked and runs in cycles. There are so many variables and components moving around that a human mind can never comprehend. The closest we can get to mentally comprehend it, is to think of a complex gearbox with all the cogs moving around and the rotating drive-shaft poking out of that gearbox is the net result of that economic outcome as it is happening.

Knowing the theory where certain cogs will be positioned at any point of time, we can pick those cogs and compare them with other cogs ...however we can often get a wrong result (false logic) due to the cogs being artificially affected by bubbles (unusual or artificial events) proving it is not a perfect world. However theory is still important because these bubbles can be recognised by those knowing their theory.

Media is littered with examples with writers searching to find two cogs to support their overall argument or feelings...although it looks to the well educated layman as logical it is often false.

We can eliminate some of the false logic by grouping many cogs together within this complex economic gearbox and compare these different groupings.

Below..it could be considered, two large groups of cogs..the Economic cycle (Yellow) and the Stockmarket cycle (Blue) and how they theoretically behave and intersect over time within their combined complete cyclic rotation.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Skid ...notice the stock market rise is well underway during an economic hesitant recovery when the general consensus of investors are still in caution mode ..Note that generally speaking employers are reluctant to hire or invest during a hesitant economic recovery period ...Skid I think this is where we are at now.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Human Behaviour is amazing... How often do you hear in the Media this type of statement "I will not invest until the economy comes right."

This is a false logic statement. Reinforced with the belief that When the stockmarket finally peaks and begins its cyclic Primary downtrend (Bear Market cycle) they average down convinced that Mr Market is wrong and they are fundamentally right. (false logic)

Belg was correct with this quote "...Not really scary at all. Just the predictable pattern of what happens after a recession".... Not sure I would agree within this context with the next sentence...."Those that do not study history are doomed to repeat it." Although its a generally true statement.

see the image below... Theoretically the sharemarket peaks 2/3 to 3/4 the way through an economic recovery cycle.

Where are we at now in the USA stockmarket???...It seems from the image below we are about middle bull


I was only in Nappies, but I thought the high inflation 1970s coincided with a pretty dismal return from stocks.

True...The USA stock Market (DOW S&P500) was in a secular bear market during this period (1966-1982). Long periods of High inflation / deflation affect the Equity market by lowering the average P/E Ratio of stocks. Paradoxial as it may seem, long periods of high inflation / deflation eventually kills the Equity Secular Bear Cycle and creates a new Secular Bull Cycle. Predictors expect this latest Secular Bear to die around 2016 - 2018 so its logical to assume high inflation or bad deflation to be a problem around this period



http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/business_cycle_stock_market_sectors_29_1_08.jpg

[winner69]

The big worry? Inflation !!! But whats a good hedge against inflation? Stocks!

Re inflation and US equity returns

According to my US market bible the last time there was long period of inflation in the US was 1973 to 1981 (average was about 9% pa with range from 6% to 13%) the DOW went nowhere. There was a +38% year on the DOW in that period but overall the DOW in 1981 was clsoe to what it was in 1973. Since then the world has killed inflation eh .... a bad year these days is 5% eh

Rising inflation generally coincides with falling market PEs ..... hence even though profits increase because of inflation market valuations fall and as result the market goes nowhere

Investing in the DOW from 1973 to 1981 resulted in NIL market returns when inflation was about 9% pa ... soul destroying stuff

[whirly]

Skid everything is networked and runs in cycles. There are so many variables and components moving around that a human mind can never comprehend. The closest we can get to mentally comprehend it, is to think of a complex gearbox with all the cogs moving around and the rotating drive-shaft poking out of that gearbox is the net result of that economic outcome as it is happening.

Knowing the theory where certain cogs will be positioned at any point of time, we can pick those cogs and compare them with other cogs ...however we can often get a wrong result (false logic) due to the cogs being artificially affected by bubbles (unusual or artificial events) proving it is not a perfect world. However theory is still important because these bubbles can be recognised by those knowing their theory.

Media is littered with examples with writers searching to find two cogs to support their overall argument or feelings...although it looks to the well educated layman as logical it is often false.

We can eliminate some of the false logic by grouping many cogs together within this complex economic gearbox and compare these different groupings.

Below..it could be considered, two large groups of cogs..the Economic cycle (Yellow) and the Stockmarket cycle (Blue) and how they theoretically behave and intersect over time within their combined complete cyclic rotation.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Skid ...notice the stock market rise is well underway during an economic hesitant recovery when the general consensus of investors are still in caution mode ..Note that generally speaking employers are reluctant to hire or invest during a hesitant economic recovery period ...Skid I think this is where we are at now.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Human Behaviour is amazing... How often do you hear in the Media this type of statement "I will not invest until the economy comes right."

This is a false logic statement. Reinforced with the belief that When the stockmarket finally peaks and begins its cyclic Primary downtrend (Bear Market cycle) they average down convinced that Mr Market is wrong and they are fundamentally right. (false logic)

Belg was correct with this quote "...Not really scary at all. Just the predictable pattern of what happens after a recession".... Not sure I would agree within this context with the next sentence...."Those that do not study history are doomed to repeat it." Although its a generally true statement.

see the image below... Theoretically the sharemarket peaks 2/3 to 3/4 the way through an economic recovery cycle.

Where are we at now in the USA stockmarket???...It seems from the image below we are about middle bull




http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/business_cycle_stock_market_sectors_29_1_08.jpg

Good post Hoop. One question - what do the sector numbers represent? i.e does it show financials and transportation as first to recover? How are they read?

Thanks
W.

[Hoop]

Good post Hoop. One question - what do the sector numbers represent? i.e does it show financials and transportation as first to recover? How are they read?

Thanks
W.

Thats how I read Whirly... That area marks the spot where Financials and transport sectors respond and respond the best*** to the new uptrend and the Utilities are the last to respond to the downturn ..in theory;)
I looked at Financials (4) and I first thought "no way this time"...but remember we have been ear bashed by the media during the crash with Banks going to the wall and this continuing GFC saga etc..so I got a chart of the Financial Index it showed a bottom and an early rapid rise just how it said in theory....so much for media ..eh.

The DJ transport index is well known early predictor and it bottomed a week before the DOW Ind index. it is still in sync with the DOW Ind index and is still rising (good news ..huh).. The Financials lost momentum much early.

Ultilities sector are always being mentioned by stock brokers as a place to hide from the impeding bear market. Utilities although thought to be late to respond they do suffer during the last C wave of the bear cycle as do all stocks, some people forget about that.

Utilities index does rise with the new upturn (rising tide raises all boats) but the rise is not as rapid...so it makes theoretical sense to go with those early response rapid rising stocks and later with ultilites when the earlier response stocks lose momentum.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Financialindex.png

[whirly]

Thanks Hoop. Good stuff.

[skid]

Hi Skol.
I dont think those numbers have all that much to do with the Markets movement other than to scare retail investers on a daily basis nor is US reporting remotely close to being accurate. In any case it will crash or slide when those at the top want it to and make it happen.
Thanks for all the input guys-You have made some good points--But Strat Its SKID not SKOL you gave me a bit of a shock there mate

[STRAT]

Thanks for all the input guys-You have made some good points--But Strat Its SKID not SKOL you gave me a bit of a shock there mateHumble apologies Skid. Im still in denial about needing reading glasses if the truth be known.

[drillfix]

What do you folks think about this:

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/tax-loophole-billion-payday-hedge-fun-manager-john-paulson-donations-democrats-12790340

The hedge fund dude John Paulson only pays 15% tax compared to the rest of the US which is up to 25- 35% depending on what it is.


When you have these different rules for some and other rules for others, then maybe one day the world will really go topsy turney.

Some will say he deserves it, or others just envy him, but the more you read into it how the profits came along with the likes of Goldman Sachs you start to see how why its dirty, yet the rewards are incredible.

Ahh well, just another day in the US hey.

[drillfix]

Although, besides having said about the Doom Richmen whom also have different rules, there is always the other side of the coin.

Meaning, they say, that the 1st month of the year (January) reflects the general beat for the rest of the year, which has also proven to be correct out of the last 60 years out of approx 80 years, so the odds are good to have a quite an up beat year this year as January for the S&P500, Nasdaq, Dow has been quite good compared to what it could have been.

So there you have it, Doom, Boom, or Gloom, I guess we should only just take it each day and week for what it actually is without pre-empting what it actually is :P

Trade what you see, not what you want to see, or what others see.

[skid]

I can relate to your delima Strat-Ive got about 20 pairs of cheap $2 shop reading glasses scatterd all over the house so I can always find a pair -that takes care of my eyesight and alzheimers at the same time LOL

[skid]

All I need now is a pair to see into the future

[Hoop]

All I need now is a pair to see into the future

here's some Skid:cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::D

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/funnyglasses.jpg

[trackers]

Prefer my Delorean personally :)

3194

[tricha]

Prefer my Delorean personally :)

3194

Fake it till you make it, hmm, isn't that what the States are doing, except they ain't going to make it.
It's all an illusion folks, remember this, "The difference between greed and fear is 1 second"
And why has the deficit widened ...........? It's very simple and it's going to get worse :scared:

Remember history, as it quite often repeats itself. The second before the great crash of 1929, there was greed and ..........?

When u wake up one morning and the dow has crashed 1000 + points, it will be to late to bail the ASX.


11 February 2011 Last updated at 14:48 GMT
US trade deficit widened by 33% in 2010

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/51207000/jpg/_51207623_010982076-1.jpg Imports from China far outstripped US goods going the other way
Continue reading the main story (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12431066#story_continues_1) US Economy



The US trade deficit ballooned in 2010 by the largest amount seen in a decade, Commerce Department figures have shown.
The trade deficit - the difference between imports and exports - hit $497.8bn (£311bn) last year, up 32.8% on the year before, the biggest annual percentage gain since 2000.
Imports from China hit record levels, totalling $364.9bn for the year.
For the month of December, the deficit widened by 5.9% to $40.6bn, after a rise in the price for imported oil.
This rise was also a factor in the widening annual deficit, with the average price of imported oil increasing from $56.93 a barrel in 2009 to $74.66 in 2010.
China imbalance
In 2009, the deficit had fallen to an eight-year low after a drop in imports.
But that was reversed in 2010, as overall US imports of goods and services grew 19.7% to $2.33 trillion, indicating that US consumers and businesses spent more as the economy picked up.
Exports increased by 16.6% to $1.83tn for the year. If the US can maintain this rate of growth in exports, it will reach President Obama's goal of doubling exports between 2010 and 2015.
The closely-watched trade deficit with China rose by 20.4% to an all-time high of $273.1bn, the largest imbalance the US has recorded with a single country.
Chinese imports far outweighed the $91.9bn worth of US exports going the other way.
Critics in the US have accused Beijing of manipulating its currency to gain unfair trade advantages and of creating barriers to keep US goods out

[h2so4]

What you need now tricha is a 1000 point drop index computer. I am sure there are some second hand ones still floating around on ebay.:)

[tricha]

What you need now tricha is a 1000 point drop index computer. I am sure there are some second hand ones still floating around on ebay.:)

Index pc, hmm, THE INGREDENTS are being feed into it and when the stimlus package is finished, do we have QE3 or pop.
The big question is, am I prepared for the worst.

19 February 2011 Last updated at 11:49 GMT

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12514024
Deep budget cuts passed by US House of Representatives
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/51336000/jpg/_51336525_011313537-1.jpg House members worked through the night on the spending bill

Continue reading the main story (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12514024#story_continues_1) US Economy


The US House of Representatives has approved deep cuts in federal spending, in a vote regarded as a victory for the new Republican majority in the house.

[Hoop]

Tricha....especially for you...enjoy

It is a slow day in the small Saskatchewan town of Pumphandle and streetsare deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt andlivingon credit.
A tourist visiting the area drives through town,stops at the motel, and lays a $100 bill on the desk saying he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs to pick one for the night.

As soon as he walks upstairs, the motel owner grabs the bill and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.

The butcher takes the $100 and runs down the street to retire his debt to the pig farmer.

The pig farmer takes the $100 and pays his bill to his supplier, the Co-op.

The guy at the Co-op takes the $100 and runs to pay his debt to the local prostitute, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer her "services" on credit.

The hooker rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill with the hotel owner.

The hotel proprietor then places the $100 back on the counter so the traveler will not suspect anything.

At that moment the traveler comes down the stairs, states that the rooms are not up to his standard, picks up the $100 bill and leaves.

So there ya have it...

No one produced anything...
No one earned anything...
However, the whole town is now out of debt and looks to the future with a lot more optimism.

That, my friends, is how a "stimulus package" works.
Don't ya just love the simplicity of it???

[fungus pudding]

:confused:
Tricha....especially for you...enjoy

It is a slow day in the small Saskatchewan town of Pumphandle and streetsare deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt andlivingon credit.
A tourist visiting the area drives through town,stops at the motel, and lays a $100 bill on the desk saying he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs to pick one for the night.

As soon as he walks upstairs, the motel owner grabs the bill and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.

The butcher takes the $100 and runs down the street to retire his debt to the pig farmer.

The pig farmer takes the $100 and pays his bill to his supplier, the Co-op.

The guy at the Co-op takes the $100 and runs to pay his debt to the local prostitute, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer her "services" on credit.

The hooker rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill with the hotel owner.

The hotel proprietor then places the $100 back on the counter so the traveler will not suspect anything.

At that moment the traveler comes down the stairs, states that the rooms are not up to his standard, picks up the $100 bill and leaves.

So there ya have it...

No one produced anything...
No one earned anything...
However, the whole town is now out of debt and looks to the future with a lot more optimism.

That, my friends, is how a "stimulus package" works.
Don't ya just love the simplicity of it???

No. It's one of those silly things that have been around since economic classes were invented, and has little to do with stimulus packages. It simply describes any monetary or bata system the minute credit is introduced.

[Hoop]

:confused:

No. It's one of those silly things that have been around since economic classes were invented, and has little to do with stimulus packages. It simply describes any monetary or bata system the minute credit is introduced.
Agree... I remember something similar in Economics 101 as well as the price of coal bought being more expensive at the mines than buying it at a shop half way between the two coal mines.

..this was a copy of todays email that keeps popping up in my inbox every now and then in recent months......still ...its food for thought isn't it? when a closed loop population has accummulated a mountain of debt.
.... zero growth and zero creation of wealth event??

[elZorro]

Hi Hoop,

That is more an illustration of slower debt recovery of businesses, being improved. It just takes some big players (like say Fonterra) to free up some cash to their creditors (dairy farmers) and suddenly all the downstream businesses might expect their bills to be paid a bit earlier. But in generating these bills, goods or services were created.

Each firm in this loop already had an idea that their debts to creditors were matched by a debtors list, and unless they were property speculators (finance companies?) they had reasonable expectation of being paid.

[Hoop]

Hi Hoop,

That is more an illustration of slower debt recovery of businesses, being improved. It just takes some big players (like say Fonterra) to free up some cash to their creditors (dairy farmers) and suddenly all the downstream businesses might expect their bills to be paid a bit earlier. But in generating these bills, goods or services were created.

Each firm in this loop already had an idea that their debts to creditors were matched by a debtors list, and unless they were property speculators (finance companies?) they had reasonable expectation of being paid.

Yea elZ ...one way growth could happen I suppose...but someone has to pay for increased goods and services costs...I originally thought from this oversimplified example that when debt is lowered the businesses may feel good and increase risk by borrowing (going into debt) to increase their production growth...with less debt the banks may give them a loan.

[tricha]

Tricha....especially for you...enjoy

It is a slow day in the small Saskatchewan town of Pumphandle and streetsare deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt andlivingon credit.
A tourist visiting the area drives through town,stops at the motel, and lays a $100 bill on the desk saying he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs to pick one for the night.

As soon as he walks upstairs, the motel owner grabs the bill and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.

The butcher takes the $100 and runs down the street to retire his debt to the pig farmer.

The pig farmer takes the $100 and pays his bill to his supplier, the Co-op.

The guy at the Co-op takes the $100 and runs to pay his debt to the local prostitute, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer her "services" on credit.

The hooker rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill with the hotel owner.

The hotel proprietor then places the $100 back on the counter so the traveler will not suspect anything.

At that moment the traveler comes down the stairs, states that the rooms are not up to his standard, picks up the $100 bill and leaves.

So there ya have it...

No one produced anything...
No one earned anything...
However, the whole town is now out of debt and looks to the future with a lot more optimism.

That, my friends, is how a "stimulus package" works.
Don't ya just love the simplicity of it???

Oh I love it Hoop, except it is an illusion, we are all in trouble.
Dead Nation Walking
by Richard Russell - Dow Theory Letters (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell030111.html)


In prison on death row, they often refer to condemned men as "dead men walking." We are now living through a period in history when the US and its economy are "dead nation walking." Why do I say this?

I've gone over this before, but the cover of the current Bloomberg Businessweek put it so starkly, that I decided to discuss the whole picture again.

The cover of the magazine reads, "Would You Invest In a Company that lost $2 trillion last year, and has a net worth of a negative $44 trillion?"

And what is this company? Why, it's USA Inc. The article is written by the well-known stock analyst, Mary Meeker. She writes about the US's finances as though the US was a corporation.

Mary writes, "Imagine no Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corp or Coast Guard, no federal courts or prisons, no national park service, no food and drug administration, no embassies, no salaries for Congress. That's what it would take to finance the budget by 2025 and still pay interest on America's debts, without either raising revenues or reducing entitlement growth. That's certainly not a recognizable America."

Later in the article, Meeker notes that the nation's problem is not a revenue problem, it's a SPENDING problem. She writes, "Simple math says that balancing the budget purely by raising taxes would require doubling rates across the board, which would kill growth."

So as I see it, what's coming up is a massive cut-back in federal (plus states and municipalities and cities) spending.

This is the stark and painful picture of the years ahead. The pressure is going to fall on our craven politicians. They are going to be faced with the duty of ordering massive cut-backs in spending. Every politician wants to cling to his or her office (because of the power and huge perks), and one of the ways to do that is to present juicy spending programs to their constituents. Now politicians are faced with the exact opposite. They will have to present the voters with LESS in the form of painful cut-backs and with those cut-backs the chance of being voted out of office.

But what about the markets? What of the Dow and the S&P which have been rising steadily for two successive years? As I see it, investors are taking it "one step at a time." Corporate earnings on a year-over-year basis have surged. And that's what investors have tuned in to. As far as the coming cut-backs, investors' attitudes are "We'll worry about that when the time comes. In the meantime, hasn't the 'good ol' USA come out of every tight problem with ringing bells and confetti. We'll do it again, and the hell with the deficits." Recently and rather ironically, I read that consumer confidence was at its highest level in three years. The history of America has been perpetual optimism, or that well-known expression -- "What, me worry?"

Which is where I believe we are today. The Bernanke experiment with massive money-creation has been going on for a few years. The Fed has fought the "bogeyman" of deflation with huge infusions of liquidity. Ben Bernanke, our Fed Chairman, is convinced that if he creates enough liquidity, housing will levitate like the stock market, and business will, in turn, rocket up with the stock market. The Bernanke creed: "Give them the money, and they will spend, once business improves, businessmen will hire again, and the unemployment problem will be solved". I believe this theory will be put to the test during the remaining months of 2011 and into 2012.

What do I see ahead? The debt and deficit problems alone will keep the market and the economy on edge. The Dow can levitate just so far with the help of enormous Fed-created liquidity. I think we are close to the upper extreme of the Dow level now. "So what's really new about the current situation?" you argue. My answer is that we are, indeed, experiencing something very new. Never before in history have trillions of dollars been manufactured out of busy computers -- all in an effort to create a bit of inflation in the face of world deflationary forces. Furthermore, much of the happy market action has been created by an anxious Fed with the help of enormous stimuli. Soon the stimuli will end. And that will have a negative effect on the markets, particularly the stock market. At the slightest sign of a 'double dip,' I think the Fed will turn to Qe3 and more money creation.

"But what about the dollar?" you ask. I'm convinced Bernanke is willing to sacrifice the dollar in his relentless effort to jump-start the US economy.

But there's another problem that is exerting negative pressure against a higher stock market. And it's the dividend yield. The dividend yield on the S& P 500 Composite has now declined to 1.80%. The real kicker behind the growth in stock portfolios has, for decades, been reinvestment of fat and rising dividends. But on balance, stock dividends are ridiculously low today. With a dividend yield of 1.80%, stocks are not priced to generate profits in the years ahead.

While I'm at it, I'm asking my subscribers to be sure to read the article in this week's Barron's by Stephanie Pompoy. It's an eye-opener and a must read.

Up-date on the economy, as seen through the eyes of Richard Russell (and with the help of anecdotal evidence).

I live in La Jolla, which happens to be a very wealthy community. Actually, home prices in La Jolla have not come down in the same way they have in the rest of the nation. In other words, La Jolla tends to be somewhat immune to hard times, unlike the rest of the country.

Yet, everyone I talk to here in La Jolla needs business, needs action and needs income. Restaurants are coming up with juicy promotions in an effort to entice diners to "come in and try us" or they're simply going out of business. Dentists need patients and are giving out "special" cards to bring new patients in (free teeth cleanings are offered). Rents are outrageously high in La Jolla. Greedy or spoiled landlords have been reluctant to lower rents, As a result, many "for rent" or "for lease" signs are going up in La Jolla. Businesses that have been here for decades are suddenly closing shop.

I see vagrants all over La Jolla and further south to Pacific Beach. I've always quipped that "Nobody ever froze to death in San Diego." I guess the word has spread around the country, because we now have vagrants parked and sleeping on half the benches in La Jolla. San Diego provides pitifully few facilities for vagrants. San Diego's attitude is: "We don't want 'em here, and we won't baby them. Let them go someplace else to litter the streets and look for free handouts of food."

Frankly, it reminds me of the Great Depression days when, if you were sight-seeing around Southern California, the cops would stop you and ask if you were looking for work. If the answer was yes, they'd put you in the back of the squad car, and drive you to the nearest bus station. California didn't want out-of-staters looking for work in SoCal territory. I know this because I was here, and I was stopped and interrogated many times.
My conclusion -- if wealthy La Jolla is in trouble, then everybody is in trouble.

[Hoop]

:)Glad you liked it Tricia

Remember a year or so ago when I mentioned you should read a piece from the Crestmont research website about inflation and secular cycles it was heavy going and you got a bottle of port to help you read it...well it seems the port didn't work Tricia.

Below are two charts that I will also put on the other investing in Secular bear market thread as I've spent 90 minutes in making them.

These charts are the really simple conclusion to that Cresmont heavy going stuff Tricia.. As from those research readings... over the long term PE Ratio is the primary driver of the stockmarket. and as is shown below Inflation is the key secondary driver. The market factors in the pricing between yield and inflation so there is a strong correlation between the two.

NOTE the PARADOX ...inflation falls in the Secular Bull Market
How many people have been brainwashed by the media in thinking that during the Equity boom times it is the other way around ....eh


Richard Russell is a permabear who picks bits out of the overall picture to "valid" his argument. Permabears are having a field day with these "blips" the unexpected dips in the charted areas and because it is so easy to see they will produce their short term charts to prove their argument.
As you can see from the charts the yield rate jumps all around the place during the secular cycle but there is a trend.

During the Secular Bear the yield trend is up but there are many dips over 15 of them in the bear cycles this last 15 months is just another dip to add to the collection.

One thing that history can tell you is that when (2018?) this current secular bear market is over the inflation rate will be high and the yield rate will be correlated higher as well

Below are two charts which show the whole picture, not just the bits that Russell & Co want you too see

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/InflationRateUSA.png

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP500Dividendyield.png

[tricha]

:)Glad you liked it Tricia

Remember a year or so ago when I mentioned you should read a piece from the Crestmont research website about inflation and secular cycles it was heavy going and you got a bottle of port to help you read it...well it seems the port didn't work Tricia.

Below are two charts that I will also put on the other investing in Secular bear market thread as I've spent 90 minutes in making them.

These charts are the really simple conclusion to that Cresmont heavy going stuff Tricia.. As from those research readings... over the long term PE Ratio is the primary driver of the stockmarket. and as is shown below Inflation is the key secondary driver. The market factors in the pricing between yield and inflation so there is a strong correlation between the two.

NOTE the PARADOX ...inflation falls in the Secular Bull Market
How many people have been brainwashed by the media in thinking that during the Equity boom times it is the other way around ....eh


Richard Russell is a permabear who picks bits out of the overall picture to "valid" his argument. Permabears are having a field day with these "blips" the unexpected dips in the charted areas and because it is so easy to see they will produce their short term charts to prove their argument.
As you can see from the charts the yield rate jumps all around the place during the secular cycle but there is a trend.

During the Secular Bear the yield trend is up but there are many dips over 15 of them in the bear cycles this last 15 months is just another dip to add to the collection.

One thing that history can tell you is that when (2018?) this current secular bear market is over the inflation rate will be high and the yield rate will be correlated higher as well

Below are two charts which show the whole picture, not just the bits that Russell & Co want you too see

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/InflationRateUSA.png

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP500Dividendyield.png

Very WELL done Hoop, its very clear how u show it :t_up:

The only concern I have, which I hope u can answer just as well, is how the effect of expensive oil will have a different effect, to the last 100 years.
The way I see it without cheap oil, growth will muted and no growth is a new phenomena which the modern world has not faced.

[tricha]

The Aus market is NOT rattling down the pipe. It has risen 57% in the last 22 months, has just made a new 8 month high and at 1.0, the Market Strength Indicator is as high as it can go. Longterm technical indicators are all positive and nowhere near "caution" levels.

Tricha, markets do crash - but there is always some warning. The All Ords went "rattling down the pipe" in 2008 - but there were many signs of impending weakness, allowing plenty of time to get out.

If the market was weak and the current plot was Red, I would be right with you, warning anyone that would listen that this was a time for caution. As it stands, our views are diametrically opposed. This, of course, has happened before. In the 2008 crash, you were fully invested and buying all the way down as I kindly, gently and sensitively pointed out that you were foolishly buying into a weak and sliding market. I have taken the diabolical liberty of plotting a few of your comments on the chart below. In short, you were Bullish and IN the market when you should have been Bearish and OUT of the market, while now, when you SHOULD be Bullish and IN the market, you are cashed up and advocating extreme caution!



I doubt that I have ever come across a more determined contrarian or a better example of the folly of getting "out of synch" with the market. Acting in defiance of prevailing market sentiment is a very, very expensive exercise. Fight the market - and you lose.

Quite the reverse, Tricha. The market is currently in an uptrend - at such times it is only sensible to be in.

Investing in a weak and falling market is stupidity.

Fight the market and u lose, hmm Phaedrus "be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy" who wrote this ?

Listening to u, I would have to be thick, Phaedrus.

U need to do some serious reading instead of spending all day watching those cloud patterns. Maybe to many days of sun and u got some serious sunstroke.:confused:

[Hoop]

The only concern I have, which I hope u can answer just as well, is how the effect of expensive oil will have a different effect, to the last 100 years.
The way I see it without cheap oil, growth will muted and no growth is a new phenomena which the modern world has not faced.


Quote..no growth is a new phenomena which the modern world has not faced. No evidence of this from the charts

Tricia ...doesn't seem to be an overall corelation between Oil prices and Growth nor the two correlating together with the sharemarket.

The latest dip on the charts are deceiving because I haven't been able to line the two charts up properly....actually both oil price and growth dipped together.

On isolated closer looks it seems the high oil price caused an effect of a growth dip in the early 80's and when the oil price dropped in Mid 1980"s the growth rate climbed again....however that was not the case recently pre2008.

Interesting..notice how the growth rate isn't oscilating as much since the 1980's...Is this due to the change to Monetary theory and its Fiscal controls???


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/USGDP.png
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/oilchart140yr.png

[tricha]

Hoop - Quote..no growth is a new phenomena which the modern world has not faced. No evidence of this from the charts

Tricia ...doesn't seem to be an overall corelation between Oil prices and Growth nor the two correlating together with the sharemarket.

The latest dip on the charts are deceiving because I haven't been able to line the two charts up properly....actually both oil price and growth dipped together.

On isolated closer looks it seems the high oil price caused an effect of a growth dip in the early 80's and when the oil price dropped in Mid 1980"s the growth rate climbed again....however that was not the case recently pre2008.

Interesting..notice how the growth rate isn't oscilating as much since the 1980's...Is this due to the change to Monetary theory and its Fiscal controls???

Hi Hoop - try corelation between the 1987 gulf crisis and 2008 when oil spiked, u r right gradual increase can be handled, but I'm sure big increases can not.
We are on the cuff of another big increase, but if we hit recession again, it will decrease smartly.
Have u read Debunkery by Ken Fisher, Bunk 37.

Another nail in the coffin, currency wars followed by trade wars, depression still coming :confused: what happened following 1929.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-12739041

Cuba cuts peso to match US dollar
Cuba devalues its currency by 8% in relation to the US dollar as part of efforts to revive its economy.

[tricha]

Do mu want some god news, not on this thread today. This is off BBC news and it is all depressionary.

UK recovery 'subdued' for two years (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12753109)

The UK economy will remain subdued this year, with government cuts and sluggish world trade slowing growth, the OECD says.


UK jobless total hits 17-year high (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12757675)

UK unemployment rose by 27,000 in the three months to the end of January to 2.53 million, the highest total since 1994.
Portugal receives debt downgrade (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12755569)

Ratings agency Moody's downgrades Portugal's sovereign debt, while the government's austerity plans run into opposition.
US homebuilding in February slump (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12760093)

The construction of new homes in the US sinks 22.5% in February to its second lowest level on record, new data shows.

[robo]

Im feeling very pessimistic around global debt at the moment, does anyone else think this situation just isnt going away like we would all like it to

[percy]

Im feeling very pessimistic around global debt at the moment, does anyone else think this situation just isnt going away like we would all like it to

The US,UK,and Europe have huge debt problems that will take years to sort out.
BRIC countries,ie Brazil,Russia,China and India will drive world growth.

[drillfix]

Im feeling very pessimistic around global debt at the moment, does anyone else think this situation just isnt going away like we would all like it to

Dont worry there Robo, your not alone there. I myself have been playing hit and run in this environment and its really easy to forget that we remain in a decline whilst the upswing happens and trading is easy.

Regardless of those whom say the US will pass laws to enable more printed money (aka possible QE3), this does not actually solve the problem and just continues avoiding the reality unsustainable debt building that needs to be dealt with sometime. (aka kicking the can down the road).

I think the question we should ask is, for each of us, what should each of us do should situation A, B, C happen and have some idea what we are going or should do that protects or benefits us the best. Providing we know that then all is as what we expect it to such a degree.

Also have some slight concerns that I now have folks I know whom are preparing to move inland westward as they believe a giant Red Globe/Rock is heading towards the earth which governments apparently know of and this will be causing a magnetic shift in poles, more earth quakes, floods and all the rest of the carnage we hear about. And they say its due in the next month as well. Sounds like one heck of a system, economy, world.

So does this mean the economy will be over soon? LOL Dont really know though I try take one day at a time for what it is as this at least gives you an answer to where you are at for the end of each day. :)

[tricha]

Im feeling very pessimistic around global debt at the moment, does anyone else think this situation just isnt going away like we would all like it to

U have every right to be feeling pessimistic about this, at the moment
Robo.
Things could be about to get very ugly again, it's time to rethink my stragegy about what position I should be in.:confused:

Recession: We Are Hitting an Economic Growth Ceiling Caused by Limited Cheap Oil

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/gail-tverberg/2011/08/12/recession-we-are-hitting-an-economic-growth-ceiling-caused-by-limited-cheap-oil

[elZorro]

U have every right to be feeling pessimistic about this, at the moment
Robo.
Things could be about to get very ugly again, it's time to rethink my stragegy about what position I should be in.:confused:

Recession: We Are Hitting an Economic Growth Ceiling Caused by Limited Cheap Oil

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/gail-tverberg/2011/08/12/recession-we-are-hitting-an-economic-growth-ceiling-caused-by-limited-cheap-oil

Agree Tricha, that article makes a lot of sense. Some good graphs there. I still reckon that much more effort needs to go into green energy research and scaling up, which would produce cheap energy from the sun (PV cells, wind, solar heating, biofuels from algae, micro hydro), which would also keep employment up. Cheaper energy would fix everything in the end.

[tricha]

Agree Tricha, that article makes a lot of sense. Some good graphs there. I still reckon that much more effort needs to go into green energy research and scaling up, which would produce cheap energy from the sun (PV cells, wind, solar heating, biofuels from algae, micro hydro), which would also keep employment up. Cheaper energy would fix everything in the end.

You are so right elZorro, but unfortunately our govt, USA and many others, are reactive.
On the other hand China with their system, is proactive with their 10, 20 30 year plans.
They are busy securing their energy needs for the future.
No small wonder it will soon be the #1 economy in the world.

The only thing we can do, is secure our own future with energy savings and getting rid of debt. And telling as many people out there as posibble, a few years ago no one was interested, now they are beginning to awaken.

[elZorro]

This may be slightly off subject, found this article on Mineweb.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72102?oid=131879&sn=Detail

Worth a read and a ponder. Scary timelines for the dwindling metal/mineral resources on our planet. But some investing advice anyway.

[Crypto Crude]

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

:cool:
. (http://www.usdebtclock.org/)^sc

[tricha]

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

:cool:
. (http://www.usdebtclock.org/)^sc

Good one Shrewd, heres our problem, the games over! We might have to work.

Peak Oil and Economic Contraction_FULL VERSION

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejHjxJ4MhNM&feature=related

[tricha]

Good one Shrewd, heres our problem, the games over! We might have to work.

Peak Oil and Economic Contraction_FULL VERSION

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejHjxJ4MhNM&feature=related


And if u think he's kidding.


" The Greatest Depression " R U Ready:confused: Key notes, many! Take notes folks and heres your challenge " debunk it";)

Those that can not remember the past "are condemmed to repeat it"
When will America Collapse? .....answers from Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Gerald Celente and others http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7e8GMfjgE58&feature=related

[tricha]

A sample of what is happening worldwide, its real.


10 October 2011 Last updated at 23:05 GMT
UK seeing 'a big rise in poverty'http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/55942000/jpg/_55942353_003813354-1.jpg The IFS says the government will miss its poverty reduction targets
Continue reading the main story (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#story_continues_1) UK Economy (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/business/2010/uk_economy/default.stm)

The UK will continue to see a big rise in the number of people living in poverty, a report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned.
The study said 2.2 million children and two million working age adults were living in absolute poverty in 2009-10.
It predicts that by 2012-13, this will rise by an extra 600,000 children and 800,000 adults of working age.
The government said its "wide-ranging reforms will have a dynamic impact on some of the poorest families".
In percentage terms, 17% of UK children were living in absolute poverty in 2009-10. By 2012-13, the IFS predicts this will rise to 21.8%.
'Credit boost' People below the poverty line have a household income at least 60% less than the national average.
The IFS said that in 2009-10 the poverty line was set at a weekly income of £347 after tax and national insurance for a couple with two children, or £165 per week for a single adult without children.
From 2013 the government is introducing a new single monthly benefit payment, called the Universal Credit.
The IFS says the Universal Credit should directly reduce the number of children in poverty by 450,000, and adults in poverty by 600,000, by 2020-21.
However, the IFS adds that the Universal Credit will ultimately fail to prevent poverty increasing, because it will be "more than offset" by other planned reforms, such as changing the measurement of inflation used for means-testing benefits.
As a result, it predicts that absolute child poverty will continue to rise, and by 2020-21 will be at its highest level since 2001-02.
The IFS says the government will therefore miss its targets for reducing child poverty, as set down in the Child Poverty Act of 2010.
A government spokesperson said: "The IFS acknowledge that Universal Credit will substantially reduce child poverty.
"It will make work pay for the first time, tackling in-work poverty and lift over one million people, including 450,000 children, out of poverty."
The IFS report was funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.

[Skol]

Great Depression #2 won't happen tricha because we haven't got the gold standard to help it along.

www.econbrowser.com/archives/2005/12/the_gold_standa.html

It's all been said before tricha but many people are in poverty because they don't help themselves, they do dumb things with their money.

I've got a relative who's poverty-stricken, a real dumbarse, won't work, hangs out with his dumb mates, smokes, does a bit of other stuff as well. He told me the other day "I need my own place, some money and then I need a job".
He's got it around the wrong way, but too stupid to realise it. 27 years old and got absolutely nothing, zero.

For many, poverty is a choice they make themselves.

For other more educated people - well, they just should have known better.

www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/30/subprimecrisis.creditcrunch

[tricha]

Great Depression #2 won't happen tricha because we haven't got the gold standard to help it along.

www.econbrowser.com/archives/2005/12/the_gold_standa.html (http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2005/12/the_gold_standa.html)

It's all been said before tricha but many people are in poverty because they don't help themselves, they do dumb things with their money.

I've got a relative who's poverty-stricken, a real dumbarse, won't work, hangs out with his dumb mates, smokes, does a bit of other stuff as well. He told me the other day "I need my own place, some money and then I need a job".
He's got it around the wrong way, but too stupid to realise it. 27 years old and got absolutely nothing, zero.

For many, poverty is a choice they make themselves.

For other more educated people - well, they just should have known better.

www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/30/subprimecrisis.creditcrunch (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/30/subprimecrisis.creditcrunch)


In a nutshell, " Prepare for the worst and hope for the best"


The only dumb ass around here is ....., shame on u.


Markets and the euro 'end game'

End game is here for Europe, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15868210

Where have all the posts gone, stage 2 of this turmoil is knocking on the door.I wonder how many of you have prepared.???????

[tricha]

In a nutshell, " Prepare for the worst and hope for the best"

It's time to be out of the market and clear the debts. We have a depression every 70 years on average and it is used to clean the system out.

Hearing on MF Global Collapse gives more questions than answers (http://news.mywebpal.com/news_tool_v2.cfm?show=localnews&pnpID=348&NewsID=1010120&CategoryID=7227&on=1)The House Agriculture Committee held a public hearing Thursday to examine the MF Global bankruptcy and reports that as much as $1.2 billion in customer funds…Alva Review-Courier· 4 hours ago

Its all coming to a head, lies and corruption still abound. As we all know, the difference between greed and fear is 1 second.
The great crash of 1929, came about with no bells ringing to say get out. The day before the market was in great spirits.


Lies, Damned Lies, and (Unemployment) Statistics

http://www.wealthwire.com/news/economy/2315?r=1

Happy hunting folks, watch out for the bear.;)

[tricha]

We have the lies, the corruption and "The Debt time Bomb " :ohmy:

November 2011 Last updated at 19:51 GMT 'Super-committee' on brink of US deficit failure.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15814728

And we add


US Debt Refinancing About to Hit a Wall

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/images/dr20111212a_sml.jpg (http://clicks.portphillippublishing.net//t/AQ/AAhtqA/AAh9WQ/AAVSVA/AQ/AmYIzA/DoYf)
Click here (http://clicks.portphillippublishing.net//t/AQ/AAhtqA/AAh9WQ/AAVSVA/Ag/AmYIzA/koNk) to enlarge


Its pretty easy to see the ending :eek2:

[Hoop]

Tricia didn't say who the author was ....for the record it was Mac Slavo He says he is a small businessman and investor...Hmmm.. being a serial blogger I don't know where he finds the time to look after his small business and also being a doomsdayist I can't imagine him being a successful investor in anything either
Mrs Hoop keeps telling me that I must be nice to people ...so...today I will be nice to this guy....He is making articles and is recognised by publishing on websites that will take any blogger's articles as long as it portrays huge negatives. One such large site is SHTFplan.com (http://www.shtfplan.com/) ...by the way SHTF stands for Sh1t Hits The Fan :D honest!!!....a must read site for all those people out there that believe the world is rotten to the core and that it will soon end in a apocalyptic fashion.

Looking at his past articles this morning his crystal ball is giving out mistimed vision...He seems to be a guy that walks around with this constant electricfied raincoud above his head and looks twice before rounding a corner...the day he says that things are looking rosy will be the day I panic, cash up and leave plant Earth.

Some Mac Slavo past articles for you Tricia (http://www.lewrockwell.com/slavo/slavo-arch.html) :)

Seeking Alpha (the cyberspace AI robot) (http://seekingalpha.com/author/mac-slavo) was nice to Mac as well.. hmmmm maybe ... quote...."Mac Slavo is a legend in his own mind. He spreads the legend wherever he can, though most people point, laugh and snicker -- but he's good with that. Mac would be considered by some to be a doom and gloomer, though he believes reality is reality, and he tries to assign no positive or negative personal perceptions to any particular event. This is quite difficult, so at times Mac does provide personal commentary and spin on news, economic & financial happenings, and other people's blogs."

[STRAT]

Mrs Hoop keeps telling me that I must be nice to people ...
Voices in your head. Hoop? :D

Anyway, thanks for that Hoop. Seems to me this thread should be re-named "The FEAR thread"

Just need someone to start one called "The GREED thread" :lol:

For anyone who hasnt seen it. This is in Trichas Signature and well worth a look. I loved it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QovBLFZhQME

[tricha]

Voices in your head. Hoop? :D

Anyway, thanks for that Hoop. Seems to me this thread should be re-named "The FEAR thread"

Just need someone to start one called "The GREED thread" :lol:

For anyone who hasnt seen it. This is in Trichas Signature and well worth a look. I loved it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QovBLFZhQME

Great idea Strat, start it now, " Greed is Good", :eek2:, I have a feeling u might struggle to find some good news.:ohmy:though.


In the mean, heres someone we all know, looks like he's in the fear camp and rightly so.

Dear Investor, And so the volatility continues…
The real question is; are we nearing some sort of cyclical low and poised for a sustainable recovery or should we be taking more notice of the likes of Mr Norris, outgoing CEO of the Commonwealth Bank, who is suggesting we are poised for GFC take two?

[STRAT]

Great idea Strat, start it now, " Greed is Good", :eek2:, I have a feeling u might struggle to find some good news.:ohmy:though.


In the mean, heres someone we all know, looks like he's in the fear camp and rightly so.

Dear Investor, And so the volatility continues…
The real question is; are we nearing some sort of cyclical low and poised for a sustainable recovery or should we be taking more notice of the likes of Mr Norris, outgoing CEO of the Commonwealth Bank, who is suggesting we are poised for GFC take two?Hi Tricha
It is hard to find good news or anything going in a sustained direction but they are out there.

Heres a couple we all know of already.

SXY
nice steady rise through the recent turmoil
ROB
more than doubled in the last 3 months

They are out there

As to the GFC. It will be back to business as usual as soon as the banks can fob off their losses onto Joe Public with the help of the politicians I reckon. Europe would be there now if they werent all tied into this bull**** called the Eurozone. Its all the harder for the politicians to get Joe Public to take it up the arse without loosing their jobs when the banks and politicians they are donating to arent even in the same country. but it will happen IMO.

[skid]

OK so heres the dilemma that I have yet to get an exceptable answer to. If its a depression then we need to eliminate dept[ok so far]and get into cash[no problem-cash in bank] but now here comes the depression-banks fall over,and ..good bye money...Dang! mayby should have left it in the falling real estate market or gold ''Pysical money'' you say...Have you ever tried to get 4or 5 hundredthousand out of the bank in cash? not to mention losing sleep from having a sizable lump in the ole mattress..

[tricha]

Hi Tricha
It is hard to find good news or anything going in a sustained direction but they are out there.

Heres a couple we all know of already.

SXY
nice steady rise through the recent turmoil
ROB
more than doubled in the last 3 months

They are out there

As to the GFC. It will be back to business as usual as soon as the banks can fob off their losses onto Joe Public with the help of the politicians I reckon. Europe would be there now if they werent all tied into this bull**** called the Eurozone. Its all the harder for the politicians to get Joe Public to take it up the arse without loosing their jobs when the banks and politicians they are donating to arent even in the same country. but it will happen IMO.


Hi Strat

Back to business, I hope u r right Strat, hope for the best, but prepare for the worst, I guess it depends how old you are to what your risk profile is.

I glad to say I see some justice.

$1.5b Ponzi schemer starts spilling the beans
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=10773000

Lets hope the courts in this gutless country start dishing out some real justice. Jails to good for them here, they should be doing hard time growing and pruning trees or something. THESE THEIVES ARE WORSE THAN BANK ROBBERS,
they have ruined thousands of lives and we the tax payer have had to put money, from our own pocket to bail some of them.

National Finance director pleads guiltyBy Hamish Fletcher http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=10773041
5:30 AM Wednesday Dec 14, 2011

[tricha]

OK so heres the dilemma that I have yet to get an exceptable answer to. If its a depression then we need to eliminate dept[ok so far]and get into cash[no problem-cash in bank] but now here comes the depression-banks fall over,and ..good bye money...Dang! mayby should have left it in the falling real estate market or gold ''Pysical money'' you say...Have you ever tried to get 4or 5 hundredthousand out of the bank in cash? not to mention losing sleep from having a sizable lump in the ole mattress..

Skid, that's exactly what I heard this week from this about to retire gentleman, he had his money in tower, recently got most of it back from the recovery in the markets and pulled it all.
He bought a rental property, 100% cash and no debt.

And that really started me thinking! Here we all are wondering how to secure our money to the best we can, he has the solution.
He may well lose 20% if property drops, but in the long term he is as safe as one could be.

I'm going down that road now, except I will maintain gold shares, as an insurance policy.

[JBmurc]

Skid, that's exactly what I heard this week from this about to retire gentleman, he had his money in tower, recently got most of it back from the recovery in the markets and pulled it all.
He bought a rental property, 100% cash and no debt.

And that really started me thinking! Here we all are wondering how to secure our money to the best we can, he has the solution.
He may well lose 20% if property drops, but in the long term he is as safe as one could be.

I'm going down that road now, except I will maintain gold shares, as an insurance policy.

Yes property esp if it has abit land with it always be worth something

[bung5]

the goverments are going to want to try and create hyper inflation to decrease their debt in which case holding smart debt is a good thing. Same situation happend in argentina 2001 or 2002 they defaulted on their debt and have been running inflation according to their statistics at 10% per annum... but if really its more like 30% per annum and they are fiddling the numbers. People get poorer and the goverments debt gets smaller.

[bung5]

meanwhile the people holding all the property got richer and richer .

[Hoop]

Voices in your head. Hoop? :D

Anyway, thanks for that Hoop. Seems to me this thread should be re-named "The FEAR thread"

Just need someone to start one called "The GREED thread" :lol:

For anyone who hasnt seen it. This is in Trichas Signature and well worth a look. I loved it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QovBLFZhQME
Strat...yeah had voices (and visions) in my head yesterday trying to find an exit with TME shares. Both screaming sell...don't sell.
Loved the youtube skit :)

Tricia...Greed can be good in moderation..it gives motivation to provide goods and services...fear can be good as well in moderation as it stops you from doing dumb, dangerous and very risky activity. However a perfect balanced state is rare and fleeting its always various states of one side or the other...Bear markets have more fear than greed and the bull markets more greed than fear...so it's understandable that in times of a secular Bear market that the media (who just report and amplifies the feelings of people) would be focusing more on the bad news than good news. As Strat points out the good news is out there ... its just buried under bad news, demons and gouls. Research as shown that economic conditions are no worse off in an Equity Secular Bear environment to that of an Equity Secular Bull. Remember the DOW was in a secular Bull market cycle when the Great Depression seeds were sown.


OK so heres the dilemma that I have yet to get an exceptable answer to. If its a depression then we need to eliminate dept[ok so far]and get into cash[no problem-cash in bank] but now here comes the depression-banks fall over,and ..good bye money...Dang! mayby should have left it in the falling real estate market or gold ''Pysical money'' you say...Have you ever tried to get 4or 5 hundredthousand out of the bank in cash? not to mention losing sleep from having a sizable lump in the ole mattress..

I'll try a ultra simple "acceptable" answer....Depression is the extreme deflationary bear state ...remember the old saying ..there's no place to hide from a bear. Debt is usually not an economic problem but it is in a depression...money just evaporates faster than it can be printed due to systemic and asset collapse..hence the deflation. Having cash under the mattress was common in the last Great Depression but although it "seemed" a safer place it depreciated in value faster due to regulated exchange drops to counter that deflationary trend.
Once the Depression takes hold the vicious cycle commenses..you need some debt to economically grow but debt will kill you in a depression...you need to spend more money to economically grow, so making the money spin through the system quicker instead of taking on debt is an option..however in a depression, those lucky people who still have money hoard it, don't spend as much, other lesser fortunates have less money to spend due to wage/salary cuts, unemployment, asset devaluation or evaporation which feeds the depression and makes it worse (for everyone including the horders). Printing more money has a currency devaluing effect and printing also results in a uneven distribution..usually either evaporated or frozen within the system collapse (e.g to prop up the failing banks) and no further therefore the poor unfortunate souls that have lost their asset value never directly get to see that printed money ..The ultimate catch 22....eh.
.
.
Are we heading towards a Depression?
Depression seeds are planted during times of gross excess, ignored system regulations, and way over the top asset valuations on a major scale......We really haven't got that this time...have we???. A lot of hot air escaped during 2008 We still have isolated pockets of systemic over regulation, political inefficiencies, isolated overblown wages in certain key sectors but is this enough to cause a collapse. Yes Europe systemic paralysis is a worry.

[skid]

Interesting reply hoop,but you havent really answered how those with money in the bank hold on to it[to hoard]They say joe Kennedy made his fortune by buying bargans in the depression--but how did he hold on to his money?[Maybe a large safe?]--the property [rental] is an idea I have thought about alot .We have rentals and Im thinking seriously about sacrificing some liquidity to pay off remaining mortgage.Property may drop,but at least its a cashflow[hopefully,as long as people can come up with some sort of rent] when I start hearing these stories about banks on alert-I start thinking about heading down and sorting the mortgage for the rental.

[skid]

note the MF Global thread

[Skol]

Interesting reply hoop,but you havent really answered how those with money in the bank hold on to it[to hoard]They say joe Kennedy made his fortune by buying bargans in the depression--but how did he hold on to his money?[Maybe a large safe?]--the property [rental] is an idea I have thought about alot .We have rentals and Im thinking seriously about sacrificing some liquidity to pay off remaining mortgage.Property may drop,but at least its a cashflow[hopefully,as long as people can come up with some sort of rent] when I start hearing these stories about banks on alert-I start thinking about heading down and sorting the mortgage for the rental.

During the depression Joe Kennedy was a bootlegger.

[Lizard]

Interesting reply hoop,but you havent really answered how those with money in the bank hold on to it[to hoard]They say joe Kennedy made his fortune by buying bargans in the depression--but how did he hold on to his money?[Maybe a large safe?]--the property [rental] is an idea I have thought about alot .We have rentals and Im thinking seriously about sacrificing some liquidity to pay off remaining mortgage.Property may drop,but at least its a cashflow[hopefully,as long as people can come up with some sort of rent] when I start hearing these stories about banks on alert-I start thinking about heading down and sorting the mortgage for the rental.

One of the things that struck me from an article I read recently on hyperinflation in Germany was that in the early years, someone was supposingly paying 1lb of butter per month to rent an apartment for his mistress, but that rose (to 2lb's or so? - can't remember exactly). Was just amazed that there was ever a time where butter was worth so much relative to rent!! Not every trend is cyclical, I guess...

[skid]

Well good to know that my rentals can maybe put some food [butter]on the table if things get to rough out there. Alcohol is legal now so that rules out bootlegging -Dang!

[iceman]

the goverments are going to want to try and create hyper inflation to decrease their debt in which case holding smart debt is a good thing. Same situation happend in argentina 2001 or 2002 they defaulted on their debt and have been running inflation according to their statistics at 10% per annum... but if really its more like 30% per annum and they are fiddling the numbers. People get poorer and the goverments debt gets smaller.

bung5 you are absolutely correct. Hyper inflation is the only way all the irresponsible Governments around the World are looking at as their "way out" for the next few years. I have a business in Argentina (unfortunately) and the last couple of years of ridiculous and under-reported inflation is killing it. 70% of my industry has already closed down in the last 6 months, largely becuse of local inflation. I hope Europe stop ignoring the problems ,stop printing money and start living within their means. If not, we are looking at some very difficult times ahead

[drillfix]

Well, the truth about Depression is, you only need to look around the world and see how many countries or states or provinces already have stayed in Depression and have experienced no boom, be it in realestate or resources.

Take Virginia as a US state as an example.

On a TV interview, they say, Depression? What is new, there has been no difference or it makes no difference to them as they continue to experience the lack of coal mining and other industries that went down hill many many years ago, and since then they know nothing different than depression.

Anyway, moral of the point is, so if there comes a depression, most of the world will not know or care about it anyway as they are already there and will not notice anything different.

Just another view or way to look at the subject.

[bung5]

bung5 you are absolutely correct. Hyper inflation is the only way all the irresponsible Governments around the World are looking at as their "way out" for the next few years. I have a business in Argentina (unfortunately) and the last couple of years of ridiculous and under-reported inflation is killing it. 70% of my industry has already closed down in the last 6 months, largely becuse of local inflation. I hope Europe stop ignoring the problems ,stop printing money and start living within their means. If not, we are looking at some very difficult times ahead

It's not the forest industry is it?

[iceman]

It's not the forest industry is it?

Deep sea fishing out of Ushuaia !

[tricha]

This is what happened in the great depression of 1929 - trade wars and barriers were imposed.
Is this a prelude to .......................................

China says will hit U.S. auto imports with dutieshttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/14/us-china-us-trade-idUSTRE7BD1LJ20111214

[tricha]

quote from a review, dam, does this sound familiar

History repeats itself, usually by the third generation. Repetition occurs because it takes three generations for a culture to forget once the oldest generation dies out. Naturally, they'd continued playing the game as THEY'D learned it, and usually are too old in the game to behave in the new way. They'd spent a lifetime learning & investing in it by that old system. Until that cultural memory dies out with the oldest, it cannot be fully accepted. (Three generations = a century.)
Zootallors 9 months ago 18 http://s.ytimg.com/yt/img/pixel-vfl3z5WfW.gif

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccNilnpvbJg&NR=1&feature=endscreen

[Skol]

Depression, hyperinflation, dream on. Read some place like wikipedia and see what a real depression is like.

There will be no hyperinflation, it's been predicted for years, a goldbugs wet dream.

We're not in a depression at all, where I live things are pretty much booming.

I'm having trouble getting work done, a builder I had here the other day has work up to November 2012, I've had a plumber booked in for 3 months but can't get here because he's snowed under with work.

Read a book called 'The Sugarbag Years', by Tony Simpson and find out what a real depression is like.

[STRAT]

Depression, hyperinflation, dream on. Read some place like wikipedia what a real depression is like.

There will be no hyperinflation, it's been predicted for years, a goldbugs wet dream.

We're not in a depression at all, where I live things are pretty much booming.

I'm having trouble getting work done, a builder I had here the other day has work up to November 2012, I've had a plumber booked in for 3 months but can't get here because he's snowed under with work.Hi Skol.
My micro perspective is similar. Ive had my busiest year in the last eight ( usual annual turnover in the first 6 months ) and I rely on a robust Industrial/Commercial building industry to provide me with a workload. Stock Market has been ho hum though. A few trading preiods and a lot of spectating.

[Skol]

Hi Skol.
My micro perspective is similar. Ive had my busiest year in the last eight ( usual annual turnover in the first 6 months ) and I rely on a robust Industrial/Commercial building industry to provide me with a workload. Stock Market has been ho hum though. A few trading preiods and a lot of spectating.

Hi Strat,

As you know I work in the aviation business, aircraft are FULL, and I mean chokka, so if there's a depression where's all this money coming from?

I've had a factory empty for a few months while I did some work on it, thought it might be a while before I got a tenant, got 2 offers last week.

A guy I was talking to the other day reckons all it getting going now the election's over.

[winner69]

OMG
This depression is going to last another 20 years ,,,, must be in the early stages eh

This Economic Depression Will Run Until 2031


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/matthew-lynn/this-economic-depression-_b_1153916.html?ref=business

[skid]

The system[banking etc]is a bit sick,but still functioning ATM. Its only if the system falls over[run on banks-bank holiday]that things will really hit the fan.
I was just reading today about alot of money being withdrawn from the big banks in the states and put into smaller,safer ones.There have also been some mini runs on certain banks ,but it is still in the ''manageable'' stage--Lets hope it stays that way.Im off to pay off the mortgage on a rental[instead of the dosh sitting in a bank]this week.They say,if something horrible is going to be put in place ,it often happens on a holiday period when noone can do anything. again ,lets hope not..

[drillfix]

Good times or bad there is this as well: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sU537f4bnFM&feature=related

As if the world was not a touch enough place with or without the economy while back at the ranch we also are trying to be controlled or forced without say by upper forces that try to blind fold us.

I really wonder about this planet at times with its money (economy), its fabrications and need for power to control.

Bottom line is, if you got nothing anyway, then primarily you should have less to worry about :P

If not then I hope you have plans for either side of the coin which ever way it falls~!

A little off topic but why not add it the cart..lol



ps: Also check out a quick little doco called Codex Alimentarius done by Ian R. Crane 2007

Or watch in a 9 part series on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2D4-noTiCg

[tobo]

Hi Skol.
My micro perspective is similar. Ive had my busiest year in the last eight ( usual annual turnover in the first 6 months ) and I rely on a robust Industrial/Commercial building industry to provide me with a workload. Stock Market has been ho hum though. A few trading preiods and a lot of spectating.

Wait til rebuilding Christchurch kicks in properly.
Right now Aucklandl is starting to be drained of structural engineers (doing assessments)
Next will come new consent documentation, then actual building (big volumes will kick in 6-12 months from now).

Interesting that NZX blue chips seem to have not gone down at all this past year, in contrast with so much global carnage.

[STRAT]

Wait til rebuilding Christchurch kicks in properly.
Right now Aucklandl is starting to be drained of structural engineers (doing assessments)
Next will come new consent documentation, then actual building (big volumes will kick in 6-12 months from now).

Interesting that NZX blue chips seem to have not gone down at all this past year, in contrast with so much global carnage.Hi Tobo.
Im expecting to be spending a bit of time down your way over the next few years. Should make getting to Christchurch Share Trader meetings a little easier :D

[STRAT]

Good times or bad there is this as well: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sU537f4bnFM&feature=related

As if the world was not a touch enough place with or without the economy while back at the ranch we also are trying to be controlled or forced without say by upper forces that try to blind fold us.

Hi Drilly. This makes me so angry. A friend in Nutritional research went to bat over here to try and stop NZ adopting the Aussie guide lines regarding a certain segment of this unbelievable claptrap. Without success as far as I know:cursing::mad ;:

[drillfix]

STRAT,

Its a shame, but the same Gimmick has been forced here in Australia as well.

They are the silent committee that seems to find themselves magically where they want to be positioned and all the Government's are in on it.

Most people dont know and if they do eventually, they say, well who cares (now anyway) as the whole point is that over gradual increments, the loss of power of what we eat are being stripped away.

IMO, what is needed is a Global Uprising to a Global Scale never seen before on the planet.

The other thing is, have you saw a movie called Contagion 2011 (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1598778/) (matt damaon, jude law etc)

Well part of that storyline of the movie more than likely depicts of what also are things to come and yes, accidentally out of no where and only BIG PHARMA seem to benefit again as they are the very ones trying to control this as they already control goverments (globally).

Sick stuff.

ps:
Unless you share that info and tell others whom can tell others not many are aware.
This awareness of what is happening is needed otherwise we are all fkd.

[Skol]

Depression. LOL

Against my better judgement I went to the mall today. It was chaos, parking lots full, parking on the median strip, traffic jams, queues at Amazon, Michael Hill and Swarovski out of the door.

There is no depression and I'm having doubts that we're even in a recession, there was people everywhere buying stuff and walking out into the carpark with packages.

[Corporate]

Depression. LOL

Against my better judgement I went to the mall today. It was chaos, parking lots full, parking on the median strip, traffic jams, queues at Amazon, Michael Hill and Swarovski out of the door.

There is no depression and I'm having doubts that we're even in a recession, there was people everywhere buying stuff and walking out into the carpark with packages.

While I agree with your observation regarding the amount of loonies out today (including me). I think spending money on stuff we don't actually need is just ingrained in our culture...I'd be interested to know how much of it was on credit cards?

[skid]

Not only are alot of us spending money on things we dont need ,but many are also spending money they dont have,-when the axe finally falls-thats when things will start looking different out there.
People out there spending money at the malls,doesnt necessarily mean things are rosey

[Skol]

Not only are alot of us spending money on things we dont need ,but many are also spending money they dont have,-when the axe finally falls-thats when things will start looking different out there.
People out there spending money at the malls,doesnt necessarily mean things are rosey

Correct, but everywhere I go I find the same thing. Properties selling, car sales up, waiting 3 months for the local plumber, builder's busy, mayhem at the mall, aircraft full.

All is well in the world. I see in the news there's been riots over the new Air Jordan shoes and chaos in Oxford Street in London with someone being stabbed during a sale.

[winner69]

STRAT,

IMO, what is needed is a Global Uprising to a Global Scale never seen before on the planet.


So which Occupy group are you going yo join in then Drillie

[drillfix]

So which Occupy group are you going yo join in then Drillie

Mate, just join them all I reckon, as they all seem to have a right cause .... lol :p


Back to other issues which are huge but just not addressed yet some day will be.

Take for an example such as Codex Alimentarius

Check this out: >> http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5266884912495233634#

Makes for some interesting reading/watching.

They walk and setup freely like they are it. Banning anything that may be nutritious for the human race or anything that maybe cures something or anything that can upset Big Pharma.

==================
Codex Alimentarius

The Codex Alimentarius is the internationally recognised set of food standards and guidelines. All food law in all countries is developed based on these requirements, as well as the specific needs of each country.

In the last month, the Codex Alimentarius Commission has released several new food standards. The Commission does much scientific and consumer research and has lengthy discussions with the Health Authorities of it’s member countries before determining new standards or guidelines.

==================

What a Joke the above is, those requirements, and several New food standards.
(yes the ones they control and dont actually tell you about all the requirements)

All that actually means, is stuff that people like you and me or folks we know cannot grow without being called criminals because THEY try to write themselves into the LAW.

Stop these Mofo's as its another control the world crusade which many dont know about, and the sooner PEOPLE know about these cronies the better. Meanwhile back at the food headquarters control Ranch, they try to line up a few simple agreeable laws that make sense in the abundance of insanity that is set out by design only to control.


IMO, its Enough to make you want to lob off some politicians head for being controlled by these New World Order bullies.

In fact, chop off all of their heads which include WTO, WHO and every other World XX organisation and then you will start seeing the planet move forward.

Whats funny about all this, I am not a conspiracy freak in anyway, but more so a Logical freak, and I see a great deal of things and I have previously just turned my head in some form of busy denial, but its becoming slowly overwhelming and eventually enough is enough.

We all need to know, and friends of family, friends of friends so while we see this playing out, we can pull the draw bridge in on the 10th hour rather the 11th hour IMO.

[Skol]

Retailers report sales of $106 million yesterday, that's more than $26 for every single person in NZ.

Depression? It's nonsense, everything is hunky dory.

[JBmurc]

They walk and setup freely like they are it. Banning anything that may be nutritious for the human race or anything that maybe cures something or anything that can upset Big Pharm..

Yes is why Big Pharma donates round 100mill p.a to keep the US Government on their side over the people...

Is a joke "the land of the free" ...while it's blatantly obvious it's "the land of the controlled to suit major corporate interests" i.e MFG steals SEC,CME turn a blind eye ...

[skid]

apparently if they have their way,it will be illegal to grow your own food and share it with your neighbors- there are some things that go to the very heart of all that is wrong--this is really a very good one to get involved with stopping

[skid]

http://www.petitiononline.co.nz/petition/oppose-the-new-zealand-government-food-bill-160-2/1301

[skid]

Above is the petition to stop the madness

[tricha]

Retailers report sales of $106 million yesterday, that's more than $26 for every single person in NZ.

Depression? It's nonsense, everything is hunky dory.


2012 and the train smash, the printing presses are running red hot, to keep this illusion going, will 2012 be the end game?
Personally I am covered as best as possible, but will hope for the best.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/worse-2008/67136?utm_source=newsletter_2011-12-25&utm_medium=email_newsletter&utm_content=node_teaser_67136&utm_campaign=weekly_newsletter_50 Worse Than 2008:confused::confused::confused::confused:


Wednesday, December 21, 2011, 10:00 am, by cmartenson
http://www.chrismartenson.com/files/imagecache/user_image_blog/pictures/picture-4.jpg?
http://media.chrismartenson.com/images/train-teaser.jpgThere are clear signs of a liquidity crunch in the asset markets right now, and the question I keep hearing is, Is this 2008 all over again?
No, it’s worse. Much worse.
In 2008 there was a lot more faith and optimism upon which to draw. But both have been squandered to significant degrees by feckless regulators and authorities who failed to properly address any of the root causes of the first crisis even as they slathered layer after layer of thin-air money over many of the symptoms.
Anyone who has paid attention knows that those "magic potions" proved to be anything but. Not only are the root causes still with us (too much debt, vast regional financial imbalances, and high energy prices), but they have actually grown worse the entire time.
As always, we have no idea exactly what is going to happen and when, but we can track the various stresses and strains, noting that more and wider fingers of instability increase the risk of a major event. Heading into 2012, there's enough data to warrant maintaining an extremely cautious stance regarding holding onto one's wealth and increasing one's preparations towards resilience.
Here’s the evidence:

Oil prices higher now than in 2009
Derivatives up more than $100 trillion since 2009
Government debts exploding
Weak GDP growth
Europe in trouble
Small investors leaving the market
China hitting a wall
One of the most important things we need to track is simply untrackable, and that is market perception. When faith in a faith-based money system vanishes, the game is pretty much over.

[drillfix]

http://www.petitiononline.co.nz/petition/oppose-the-new-zealand-government-food-bill-160-2/1301

Dont think I can sign as I am out of NZ, or does that not matter?

But then, why sign, if they do not listen, be-head the Mofo's.

Simple as that as one sick serious joke needs to have one offered in return so its only fair, ain't it~!

ps:
Belg, that is because the actual link in question is a petition, and the petition is against this proposed link which is about zillion paragraphs to post here so its better for folks to read it there than here:

http://www.legislation.govt.nz/bill/government/2010/0160/latest/whole.html?search=ts_bill_food+bill_resel&p=1#dlm3435700


of which a snipped of how it starts off can be shown below as follows:
(but on the actual link or site, the bill becomes numerously worded)
(which basically means you cannot grow or do sh#t without breaking the law)
(or follow the carrot of Corporate Greed whom now controls Governments)

============================
Food Bill

Government Bill

160—2

As reported from the Primary Production Committee
Commentary
Recommendation

The Primary Production Committee has examined the Food Bill and recommends that it be passed with the amendments shown.
Introduction

This bill would on commencement replace the Food Act 1981 and over time the Food Hygiene Regulations 1974 and the Food (Safety) Regulations 2002. It would also make consequential amendments to the Animal Products Act 1999 and the Wine Act 2003. It seeks to provide an efficient, risk-based regulatory regime that places a primary duty on persons trading in food to ensure that what is sold is safe and suitable.

This commentary focuses on the main amendments we recommend and does not address minor technical amendments.
============================

[tricha]

2012 and the train smash, the printing presses are running red hot, to keep this illusion going, will 2012 be the end game?
Personally I am covered as best as possible, but will hope for the best.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/worse-2008/67136?utm_source=newsletter_2011-12-25&utm_medium=email_newsletter&utm_content=node_teaser_67136&utm_campaign=weekly_newsletter_50 Worse Than 2008:confused::confused::confused::confused:




Wednesday, December 21, 2011, 10:00 am, by cmartenson
http://www.chrismartenson.com/files/imagecache/user_image_blog/pictures/picture-4.jpg?
http://media.chrismartenson.com/images/train-teaser.jpgThere are clear signs of a liquidity crunch in the asset markets right now, and the question I keep hearing is, Is this 2008 all over again?
No, it’s worse. Much worse.
In 2008 there was a lot more faith and optimism upon which to draw. But both have been squandered to significant degrees by feckless regulators and authorities who failed to properly address any of the root causes of the first crisis even as they slathered layer after layer of thin-air money over many of the symptoms.
Anyone who has paid attention knows that those "magic potions" proved to be anything but. Not only are the root causes still with us (too much debt, vast regional financial imbalances, and high energy prices), but they have actually grown worse the entire time.
As always, we have no idea exactly what is going to happen and when, but we can track the various stresses and strains, noting that more and wider fingers of instability increase the risk of a major event. Heading into 2012, there's enough data to warrant maintaining an extremely cautious stance regarding holding onto one's wealth and increasing one's preparations towards resilience.
Here’s the evidence:

Oil prices higher now than in 2009
Derivatives up more than $100 trillion since 2009
Government debts exploding
Weak GDP growth
Europe in trouble
Small investors leaving the market
China hitting a wall
One of the most important things we need to track is simply untrackable, and that is market perception. When faith in a faith-based money system vanishes, the game is pretty much over.

This picture tells a very important story, the money supply is exploding exponentially, can we call it the " big bang theory" and the end result, a new money system will be needed.


http://media.chrismartenson.com/images/Federal-Debt-12-20-2011-3-18-33-PM.jpg

[janner]

Portugal weathered the Great Depression very well in comparison to other western countries ..

Largely due to the counterfeit money introduced into the economy by Alveis dos Reis.. ( a very good read )

Almost exactly what the " Banks/Bernanke " are doing today..

Portugal never really recovered from that action.. with only a small respite when they joined the Euro..

[Skol]

Portugal weathered the Great Depression very well in comparison to other western countries ..

Largely due to the counterfeit money introduced into the economy by Alveis dos Reis.. ( a very good read )

Almost exactly what the " Banks/Bernanke " are doing today..

Portugal never really recovered from that action.. with only a small respite when they joined the Euro..

What I really want to know from you guys is when the 'depression' is gonna happen?

[janner]

According to Billy T on sciforums. Before Halloween 2014..

Something that he has been predicting for many many years.

Appears about right ..

But your guess is as good as mine..

[drillfix]

What I really want to know from you guys is when the 'depression' is gonna happen?

Skol, if we knew that exactly then we all would have our orders in from the Chinese Crystal Ball manufacturer...lol

The simple answer though is: Some time in the Future, and like investing in a good stock, "you must be patient"....lol

Or, it wont happen tomorrow, but it will happen :)

[janner]

Actually it was not counterfeit money as it was printed by Portugals official printer Waterfords on genuine paper with all the watermarks etc.. It was duplicate money..

But as I said .. A very good read.

[drillfix]

t was duplicate money..



LOL, it was duplicate money.

Thats a classic Janner, love it :p

[janner]

They were printed with the same serial numbers as previous prints. To be used in Portugals colony Mozambigue ..

A very clever and lucrative con. He almost bought the Bank of Portugal and would never have been found out if he had of done..

That is the plot . Still a good read to see how it was done .

At least paper money was backed up with gold in those days..

[skid]

The link provides no education for anyone ... a poor post. If you want support ... please put the effort in to provide useful, balanced and reasoned information. Thnaks,

Belgarion-With all due respect,im not asking for your support-If you dont care,then you can disregard the link.
Its obvious that there are others that do care about this issue and the link at least provides a starting point.
They can now at least do something about their concerns or do further research.
I dont pretend to have all the answers.

[Lizard]

apparently if they have their way,it will be illegal to grow your own food and share it with your neighbors- there are some things that go to the very heart of all that is wrong--this is really a very good one to get involved with stopping

Did you actually read the Food Bill? I read through it and could not see anything exceptional in there - maybe some issues with sausage sizzles and B&B's that I thought could be a problem, but perhaps there is an "out" in there somewhere. It seemed focussed on commercial scale operations and maybe extends some of the regulation beyond the current levels (I note the UK Govt now has a Business Department set on unravelling unnecessary red tape and which is getting rid of a lot of batty and over the top compliance cost - positive trend!).

Certainly I could not find anything that would stop people actually growing and consuming their own food. Of course there are rules in there relating to barter etc, but only aimed at stopping commercial scale operators getting around the rules.

Someone else fed me rumours about the US throwing people into jail for growing food, but I could not find any record of that actually occurring. The two cases publicised were in regards to zoning fines (operating a "commercial scale" agricultural business in a residential area, resulting in a $5000 fine) and for someone in a very anal council zone who came up against planners who didn't like her front yard vege garden - after a bit of publicity, all charges were dropped.

On the other hand, it has recently been made possible to keep bees in New York city again and Seattle has increased the number of backyard chooks permitted from 3 to 8...

[skid]

I hope you are right.
Im not sure just what was wrong with the existing bill--more info here http://ooooby.ning.com/profiles/blogs/food-bill-time-for-action?xg_source=msg_mes_network

[tricha]

They were printed with the same serial numbers as previous prints. To be used in Portugals colony Mozambigue ..

A very clever and lucrative con. He almost bought the Bank of Portugal and would never have been found out if he had of done..

That is the plot . Still a good read to see how it was done .

At least paper money was backed up with gold in those days..

Yes the very least, backed up by gold. Now backed up by hot air.

I wish I was in a more positive mindset, maybe it was a trip to Hokitika last weekend, " the truth"
The truth we do not want to know about or acknowledge! Its a ticking like a bomb, with the only thing missing is the length of the fuse wire.
If you ever go down the West Coast, there is a little town named " Inangahua" and in it a museum, in this museum, where most people would prefer to drive past.
Is a history lession about the Inangahua earthquake, Inangahua was devastated by an earthquake in 1968 which left 70 percent of the dwellings in the town uninhabitable.GeoNet – M 7.1, Inangahua, May 24 1968 (http://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/historic-earthquakes/top-nz/quake-09.html)

7.1 is a baby compared what awaits us on " the Alpine fault ", 30 years overdue and an estimated 8+,
get the picture. The Alpine fault is on display here, as well as other very interesting history, pages, books and newspaper articles.

Hokitika 2 days later, at the entrance to the "Hokitika Gorge", oh dear, a big information board on the Alpine Fault, which runs past right where we were standing.
If you care to look north, you see this amazing landscape, breathtaking power of destruction\creation.
Its a ticking bomb!

How easily history is forgotton or ignored. How easily history repeats, which brings me to this article.

2012 - The Year of Living Dangerously
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/james-quinn/2012/01/09/2012-the-year-of-living-dangerously


The likeliest global events which will make 2012 a year to remember include:


The disintegration of the European Union with outright default by Greece and the exit from the Union by Italy, Spain, and Portugal. A default and currency devaluation would bankrupt banks across Europe and would guarantee a worldwide recession and possibly depression.
It seems more likely by the day that someone will do something stupid in or around Iran and the Persian Gulf will explode into a virtual hell on earth. The unintended consequences of such a development will far outweigh the intended consequences.
The revolutions, protests, and brewing civil wars in Egypt, Syria, Libya and Iraq will flare up even if Iran doesn’t explode into a shooting war. The tensions in the Middle East will keep oil prices above $100, despite a world plunging into recession.
China’s hard landing will arrive in 2012. Keynesianism on steroids has failed as they’ve built more than enough vacant malls, vacant cities, vacant condo towers, and bridges to nowhere. Property prices will plunge, exports will decline, and peasants will revolt as food and energy prices push them over the edge. Chinese leaders will look for a foreign bogeyman so they can rally their 1 billion peasants around the flag. With 11% of their oil supply coming from Iran, it could get very interesting.

[Lego_Man]

Alpine Fault? Yawn.

Such a sparsely populated area that even a massive one would have a minimal impact compared to the Christchurch quake.

[tricha]

Alpine Fault? Yawn.

Such a sparsely populated area that even a massive one would have a minimal impact compared to the Christchurch quake.

You sound like one of these people, Lego_Man, that is oblivious to the past. You would be the type that called it a "Black Swan", but in reality it is history repeating.

and I do not mean the Alpine fault, it was only an example to what is possible in store for us this year, in the finanical markets.

2012 - The Year of Living Dangerously
http://www.financialsense.com/contri...ng-dangerously (http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/james-quinn/2012/01/09/2012-the-year-of-living-dangerously)

As for earthquakes and volcanio's, In reality, the whole of NZ is made up of bombs, they are all ticking and they will destroy. Wellington is the last place I would live, the Chrishchurch earthquake will look like a walk in the park, compared.Earthquakes: Wellington 23 January 1855, Wellington
SummaryIn 1855 a magnitude 8.2 earthquake the most powerful ever recorded in New Zealand rocked the southern part of the North Island. Caused by movement along a fault in Palliser Bay, it altered the landscape of the Wellington region and affected its subsequent urban development.

[STRAT]

As for earthquakes and volcanio's, In reality, the whole of NZ is made up of bombs, they are all ticking and they will destroy. .
and one day our Sun will die but that aint keepin me awake at night either :D

[skid]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mbxfGT0o84.......speaking of scarey scenarios

[shasta]

You sound like one of these people, Lego_Man, that is oblivious to the past. You would be the type that called it a "Black Swan", but in reality it is history repeating.

and I do not mean the Alpine fault, it was only an example to what is possible in store for us this year, in the finanical markets.

2012 - The Year of Living Dangerously
http://www.financialsense.com/contri...ng-dangerously (http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/james-quinn/2012/01/09/2012-the-year-of-living-dangerously)

As for earthquakes and volcanio's, In reality, the whole of NZ is made up of bombs, they are all ticking and they will destroy. Wellington is the last place I would live, the Chrishchurch earthquake will look like a walk in the park, compared.Earthquakes: Wellington 23 January 1855, Wellington
SummaryIn 1855 a magnitude 8.2 earthquake the most powerful ever recorded in New Zealand rocked the southern part of the North Island. Caused by movement along a fault in Palliser Bay, it altered the landscape of the Wellington region and affected its subsequent urban development.

I'm not losing any sleep over any earthquakes in the nations capital, not even with a house on top me, part way up a hill.

The main faultline tends to have deep quakes, most of which aren't felt widely, & being in Johnsonville i'm high enough so a Tsunami won't matter either.

Still alot of economic uncertainty ahead for 2012, but the optmist in me says we might be static, the pesimist says any issues/downgrades with Germany & the EU could go the way of the Italian cruise ship.

China will slow down, & Hopefully the US will start to pick up, & the earthquake recovery should keep NZ moving positively

[ratkin]

Dont forget dec 21th !! when the world ends

failing that there is always Betelgeuse going supernova, thats something to look forward to

[tricha]

I'm not losing any sleep over any earthquakes in the nations capital, not even with a house on top me, part way up a hill.

The main faultline tends to have deep quakes, most of which aren't felt widely, & being in Johnsonville i'm high enough so a Tsunami won't matter either.

Still alot of economic uncertainty ahead for 2012, but the optmist in me says we might be static, the pesimist says any issues/downgrades with Germany & the EU could go the way of the Italian cruise ship.

China will slow down, & Hopefully the US will start to pick up, & the earthquake recovery should keep NZ moving positively

Shasta have u looked at Skids youtube?

The states are an illusion, one big ponzi scheme, but being election year, they might just hold it together for a while yet. No one knows!
AS for a Wellinton earthquake, same deal, no one knows, but it will happen.

[drillfix]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mbxfGT0o84.......speaking of scarey scenarios



And even more Scary stories but with the internet.

Typical US w@nkers with their Dionosaur model and Corporate Censorship crap that they want to implement.

Have a listen to this folks, this world is getting trashed minute by hour, by day by week by month by year.

Check it out~!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhwuXNv8fJM

Protest to your government if they are not already Lap Dogs to the US.

[tricha]

Dam I wish I never read this tonight! Especially after I indulged in buying Mincor yesterday. I know Mincor is a great buy, but nothing will beat what Greg states.

Before I read it, news is out that Japan and South Korea posted negitive trade surplus. Japan the 1st for many a moon.

l know Greg is advertising his wares here, but the reality is true. Greed or fear, dam powerful emotions.

http://www.portphillippublishing.com.au/research/SMSI/n2threedmbway60.php?code=W9AMN102&o=612276&s=616538&u=40241356&l=380907&g=18&r=Milo

[STRAT]

Protest to your government if they are not already Lap Dogs to the US.Dang it. Too late :(

[tricha]

The real news is not that great, those printing presses pumping folks, Europe, Britain and the states. Game change coming, withe the ASX being China.

10 February 2012 Last updated at 04:58 GMT China's exports and imports dip raising growth concernshttp://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/58218000/jpg/_58218849_chinafacroty.jpg The manufacturing and export sectors are key drivers of growth in China
Continue reading the main story (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#story_continues_1) China's exports fell in January, the first decline in more than two years, raising fresh concerns about the impact of a global slowdown on its economy.
Exports fell 0.5% from a year earlier amid sluggish global demand. Shipments were also hurt as factories were shut during the Lunar New Year.
Meanwhile, imports dipped 15.3% raising fears about slowing domestic demand.
China has been trying to boost domestic consumption in a bid to offset slowing exports and rebalance its economy.
'Particular attention' Continue reading the main story (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#story_continues_2) “Start Quote
We believe the major drag and biggest risk to China's growth in 2012 is weaker external demand caused by the ongoing eurozone debt crisis”
End Quote Ting Lu Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Analysts said while the closure of establishments during the Chinese New Year affected the numbers, the decline could not be attributed to the festival alone.
They said that the bigger-than-expected drop, especially in imports, was worrying as it gave an indication of slowing growth.
"The collapse of imports begs particular attention," said Ren Xianfeng of IHS Global in Beijing.
"A fall of over 15% in January cannot be entirely explained by the lunar calendar, and adds weight to the view that economic output is slower than headline indicators might suggest."
Earlier this month, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reported that the import index for January fell to 46.9 from 49.3 in the previous month, showing slowing demand at home.
Despite these numbers, analysts said the dip was likely to be short-lived and imports may start to rise in the coming months.
'Biggest risk' The export sector has been key to China's economic growth in the past few years as global firms have turned to Beijing to take advantage of its low-cost manufacturing.
However, a slowdown in the US and the eurozone, which are two of the biggest markets for Chinese goods, has seen the pace of growth of shipments slow in recent months.
The debt crisis in the eurozone and high rate of unemployment in the US have hurt consumer confidence and dented demand for Chinese goods.
Official figures on Friday showed that bilateral trade between China and the European Union fell more than 7% in January.
Analysts said the ongoing debt issues in the eurozone were the biggest threat to China's growth.
"We believe the major drag and biggest risk to China's growth in 2012 is weaker external demand caused by the ongoing eurozone debt crisis," said Ting Lu of Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong.
"Our European economists expect a moderate eurozone recession at -0.6% in 2012, while nobody knows the exact probability and severity of a collapse of the eurozone."

[tricha]

Grtting worse by the day!

10 February 2012 Last updated at 03:54 GMT Unexpected loss for India's Tata Steelhttp://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/56637000/jpg/_56637592_tatasteel_getty.jpg Tata Steel is the world's tenth largest steelmaker and the biggest in India
Continue reading the main story (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#story_continues_1) Related Stories

Tata Steel announces 110 job cuts
Low demand hits Tata Steel profit

Tata Steel, the largest producer in India, unexpectedly reported a loss for the last three months of 2011, hit by weak demand.
The company saw a net loss of 6.03bn rupees ($122m; £77m) in the third quarter, Tata Steel said in a statement.
That compares with a net profit of 10bn rupees a year earlier.
Higher prices for raw materials as well as falling demand and prices in Europe contributed to the decline, Tata said.
Analysts were expecting a 3.4bn rupee net profit, according to Reuters news agency.
The company operates two thirds of its capacity in Europe, where the debt crisis is hitting demand.
The head of Tata's European operations said he did not expect demand to pick up this year.
"We are accelerating cash conservation in expectation of muted but stable demand in our core markets in 2012," he said in a statement.
Analysts said Tata Steel was being squeezed from both sides.
"There hasn't been a demand uptick that was expected, so prices have come down," said Ravindra Deshpande from Elara Securities in Mumbai.
"At the same time, none of their production costs are lower, so margins are under pressure."
Mr Deshpande added that he did not expect much better results in the next few quarters.

[tricha]

What about the States their trade imbalance is worsening.

Moody's warns UK, France, Austria over AAA rating
Bianco: Europe won't see Lehman-like eventMon, Feb 13 2012










By Rodrigo Campos (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=rodrigo.campos&)
NEW YORK | Mon Feb 13, 2012 8:46pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Rating agency Moody's warned on Monday it may cut the triple-A ratings of France (http://www.reuters.com/places/france), the United Kingdom and Austria, and it downgraded six other European nations including Italy, Spain and Portugal, citing growing risks from Europe's debt crisis.
Moving less aggressively than rival agency Standard & Poor's last month but putting the United Kingdom's rating in jeopardy for the first time, Moody's said it was worried about Europe's ability to undertake the kind of reforms needed to address the crisis and the amount of funds available to fight it.
It also said the region's weak economy could undermine austerity drives by governments to fix their finances.
The U.S. rating agency said it changed the outlooks for the ratings of France, the UK and Austria to negative due to "a number of specific credit pressures that would exacerbate the susceptibility of these sovereigns' balance sheets."
Germany's top-tier rating was described as "appropriate" by Moody's And it affirmed the triple-A rating on the euro zone's bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Fund.
Moody's, which said late last year it was reconsidering its European ratings, cut by one notch the ratings of Italy (http://www.reuters.com/places/italy), Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta and downgraded Spain by two notches.
Moody's said the scope of the downgrades was limited due to "the European authorities' commitment to preserving the monetary union and implementing whatever reforms are needed to restore market confidence."
The announcement came a day after Greece's parliament approved a deep new round of budget cuts in the hope of securing new bailout funds and avoiding a chaotic default in March.
The rating outlooks of the nine countries affected by Moody's action was set to negative, "given the continuing uncertainty over financing conditions over the next few quarters and its corresponding impact on creditworthiness," Moody's said.
The euro and sterling fell after the announcement while U.S. equity markets did not immediately react, with S&P 500 futures (http://www.reuters.com/finance/futures) down two points in light trading.
The euro was down 0.2 percent at $1.3164.
BRITAIN, FRANCE UNDER PRESSURE
Britain's finance (http://www.reuters.com/finance) minister responded by saying the country must keep its promise to slash its large budget deficit.
"This is proof that, in the current global situation, Britain cannot waver from dealing with its debts," finance minister George Osborne said. "This is a reality check for anyone who thinks Britain can duck confronting its debts."
The government in Britain has come under increasing pressure to soften its austerity measures to give a stalling economy room to breathe.
The French government said it will press ahead with its policies to improve competitiveness and growth while reducing the government deficit.
"The government is determined to press ahead with its actions to boost growth and competitiveness, notably the reform of the financing of welfare, of employment and the reduction of public deficits," Finance Minister Francois Baroin said in a statement.
Moody's move on Monday follows one by Standard & Poor's last month, when France and Austria lost their triple-A status, while Italy, Spain, Portugal (http://www.reuters.com/places/portugal), Cyprus, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia were downgraded. S&P also cut the EFSF by one notch.
Also in January, rating agency Fitch downgraded the sovereign credit ratings of Belgium, Cyprus, Italy, Slovenia and Spain, indicating there was a 1-in-2 chance of further cuts in the next two years.
(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos in New York, Daniel Flynn (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=daniel.flynn&) in Paris and Matt Falloon (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=matt.falloon&) in London; editing by Leslie Adler, Andrew Hay and Andre Grenon (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=andre.grenon&))

[tricha]

A House of cards.

15 February 2012 Last updated at 11:02 GMT Europe economy: Recession hits Italy and Netherlands
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/58508000/jpg/_58508412_013944132-1.jpg Europe's debt crisis has hit demand for German exports
Two of the eurozone's biggest economies have fallen into recession, according to the latest economic figures.
Italy and the Netherlands both saw their economies shrink by 0.7% in the fourth quarter, the second consecutive quarter of economic contraction.
Germany had its first negative quarter since 2009 with a decline of 0.2%, compared with the previous quarter.
But in France there was surprise growth of 0.2% at the end of last year, attributed to healthy export growth.
Overall the 17 nations that make up the eurozone saw economic activity shrink 0.3% in the fourth quarter. By comparison the United States reported growth of 0.7%.
Continue reading the main story (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#story_continues_1) “Start Quote
Greece may be burning. Growth may be slowing. But the recognised German barometer of hope over fear shows far more Germans looking on the bright side than those down in the dumps”
End Quote http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/50706000/jpg/_50706545_000187668-1.jpg Stephen Evans BBC News, Berlin

Germany: Reasons to be cheerful

The eurozone has not slipped into recession as it reported growth of 0.1% in the third quarter.
'Better than feared' For 2011 as a whole, the French economy grew by 1.7% and Germany 3%.
Europe's debt crisis has already pushed Greece, Portugal and Belgium into recession, defined by two consecutive quarters of contraction.
Economists forecast that Germany is likely to avoid that scenario and say the latest growth figures could have been worse.
"This is better than feared after retail sales and industrial production turned out badly in December. The decline is due to the euro crisis. It caused a drastic loss in confidence among companies and consumers." said Christian Schulz, an economist at Berenberg Bank.
"Action from the ECB and the government has restored confidence. There is hope that we will emerge quickly from the economic dip. We expect growth again in the second quarter at the latest, provided that the euro crisis remains under control." he said.
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/58510000/jpg/_58510973_58510749.jpg

Advertisement (http://faq.external.bbc.co.uk/questions/bbc_online/adverts_general)


Peter de Keyzer from BNP Paribas Fortis: ''Europe has de-coupled from the rest of the world''

The French growth figures were better than forecast, with many analysts having expected the economy to have contracted in the fourth quarter.
"Each of the three main components of the economy - foreign trade, household consumption and investment - had a positive contribution in the last quarter of 2011." said Finance Minister Francois Baroin in a statement.
"This strengthens the government's forecast for 0.5% [growth] this year."
Continue reading the main story (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#story_continues_2) Crisis jargon buster
Use the dropdown for easy-to-understand explanations of key financial terms:
GDP AAA-ratingAdministrationAusterityBailoutBankruptcyBase rateBasel accordsBear marketBISBondBRICBull marketCapitalCapital adequacy ratioCapitulation (market)Carry tradeChapter 11Collateralised debt obligations (CDOs)Commercial paperCommoditiesCore inflationCorrection (market)CPICredit crunchCredit default swap (CDS)Credit ratingCurrency pegDead cat bounceDebt restructuringDefaultDeficitDeflationDeleveragingDe rivativeDividendsDodd-FrankDouble-dip recessionECBEFSFEFSMEIBEquityESMEurobondEuropean Banking AuthorityFederal ReserveFinancial Policy CommitteeFiscal policyFreddie Mac, Fannie MaeG20G7G8GDPGlass-SteagallHaircutHedge fundHedgingIIFIMFImpairment chargeIndependent Commission on BankingInflationInsolvencyInvestment bankJunk bondKeynesian economicsLehman BrothersLeverageLiabilityLiborLiquidationLiquidity Liquidity crisisLiquidity trapLoans-to-deposit ratioMark-to-market (MTM)Monetary policyMoney marketsMonoline insuranceMortgage-backed securities (MBS)MPCNaked short sellingNationalisationNegative equityOECDPonzi schemePrivate equity fundProfit warningQuantitative easingRating agencyRecapitalisationRecessionRepoReserve currencyReservesRetained earningsRights issueRing-fenceSecurities lendingSecuritisationSecurityShadow bankingShort sellingSpread (yield)SPVStability pactStagflationSticky pricesStimulusSub-prime mortgagesTARPTier 1 capitalTobin taxToxic debtsTroikaUnwindVolcker RuleWorld BankWrite-downYield


GDP
Gross domestic product. A measure of economic activity in a country, namely of all the services and goods produced in a year. There are three main ways of calculating GDP - through output, through income and through expenditure.

Glossary in full

That will come as a boost to President Nicolas Sarkozy who, if he chooses to run again, faces a national election in April.
Economists say that of Wednesday's figures, France was the most surprising.
"It boils down to a very positive net trade position in the fourth quarter, business investment has also been very positive. I'm not sure the pace can be maintained in the first half but at least it suggests that France, at worst, will go through a very shallow recession. " said Gilles Moec, Senior European Economist at Deutsche Bank.
Confidence in France was undermined in January when it lost its top-notch AAA credit rating, after one of the leading ratings agencies, Standard and Poor's, downgraded the nation's debt.
At the time the agency blamed Europe's debt crisis and the failure of Europe's leaders to tackle the region's problems.


European growth rates



4th quarter
3rd quarter
2011


Eurozone

- 0.3%

0.1%

1.5%



Germany

- 0.2%

0.6%

3.0%



France

0.2%

0.3%

1.7%



Italy

- 0.7%

- 0.2%

0.4%



Austria

- 0.1%

0.2%

1.2%



Netherlands

- 0.7%

- 0.4%

1.3%

[trackers]

GM reports its largest ever annual profit:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/17/business/gm-reports-its-largest-annual-profit.html?_r=2&smid=tw-nytimes&seid=auto

[STRAT]

I love this thread. :D Just gotta figure out how to turn it into an indicator on my charts....

[tricha]

I love this thread. :D Just gotta figure out how to turn it into an indicator on my charts....

Cheers Strat, how amount applying it to the asx, the one we are in. That would be very interesting.

And why the DOW is doing well. Cheap dollars.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/james-rickards-paper-gold-or-chaos/71504?utm_source=newsletter_2012-02- (http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/james-rickards-paper-gold-or-chaos/71504?utm_source=newsletter_2012-02-18&utm_medium=email_newsletter&utm_content=node_title_71504&utm_campaign=weekly_newsletter_58)


On The Cause of Currency Wars

[ELYOB]

GM reports its largest ever annual profit:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/17/business/gm-reports-its-largest-annual-profit.html?_r=2&smid=tw-nytimes&seid=auto

It doesnt matter what profit they make , it is the American way to drain the balance sheet , not to reinforce it with strength . I have done many case studies on the likes of GM through to General Electric , and what they do is common , and not good in the long run . The balance sheets are loaded with max debt in cases , and spikes in profit are followed by losses in volitile long-term . The Australian trend of keeping a lot of profit in retained earnings to strengthen the balance sheet is a healthy contrast.

[tricha]

Ignorance is bliss, reality is not.

You bet, this is one mean game.!

http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/derivatives/bank_exposure.html

[STRAT]

Great pics. Tricha.

Nothing like a visual perspective for grasping the size of something.

Thats an astounding pile of cash invested in re-packaged and re-labelled turds. eh?

[Fred114]

Great pics. Tricha.

Nothing like a visual perspective for grasping the size of something.

Thats an astounding pile of cash invested in re-packaged and re-labelled turds. eh?

It turns out that over-the-counter derivatives market has grown to over $700 trillion as at Jun 2011. This is a colossal amount of money, far more than shown in the visual depicted, because this considers only 9 banks. This market is governed by the ISDA at isda.org . They are currently consulting on how to relieve the banks of this large material debt, and are considering bail-in as an option. According to Economics article http://www.economist.com/node/15392186?story_id=E1_TVPJNTRG bail-in is a third option between systemic collapse and tax-payer bailout, that essentially recap's from within the organization using private money, not public money. The article applies this approach to Lehman Brother's and argues it would have avoided collapse. They suggest that this process has the effect of building in safe-guards and austerity that discipline the banks. In my reading, this would have the effect of a strong commitment to bank liberalization, to which many countries are now deeply indebted. In fact, the ISDA are arguing that derivatives are not required to be considered for recapitalization. Bizzare.

[CMo]

If everybody just closes their eyes the problem will go away.

... won't it?


Another recent piece here...

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/global-derivatives-like-two-drunks-leaning-on-each-other/2012/04/18/

[STRAT]

They suggest that this process has the effect of building in safe-guards and austerity that discipline the banks. .Hi Fred
Now that would look good on a Tui Billboard.

[drillfix]

Ignorance is bliss, reality is not.

You bet, this is one mean game.!

http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/derivatives/bank_exposure.html


Yep, agree Strat, Nice pics and graphical representation.

They say a picture says a thousand words, but in this case it must be a thousand trillion words!

[JBmurc]

Yep, agree Strat, Nice pics and graphical representation.

They say a picture says a thousand words, but in this case it must be a thousand trillion words!

Yes what they also need beside the picture is how big the pile of all above ground Gold which would be round 68 feet(20m) solid cube(the silver,plat etc piles are even smaller)

[tricha]

Yes what they also need beside the picture is how big the pile of all above ground Gold which would be round 68 feet(20m) solid cube(the silver,plat etc piles are even smaller)


Depression for the US coming, with a gold standard?

Gold standard inevitable, $10k/oz looms, says new book (5:18) April 26 - A return to the gold standard is inevitable, perhaps as early as next year. And gold prices could hit $10,000/oz, says a new book by Amphora CIO John Butler.



http://www.reuters.com/video/2012/04/26/gold-standard-inevitable-10k-oz-looms-sa?&videoChannel=1&videoId=233975545