PAZ Pharma Zen

[percy]

AGM
Time 12:30
Date Tuesday 25/05

Time 12:30

Venue AGM - 111 Cashel St; - L4 - Ōtautahi room - BNZ Christchurch Partners Centre

[whatsup]

.75 today, well done

[whatsup]

next price .85 ath !!

[McPussPuss]

The illiquid barn dance of PAZ trades inches up to .80 again, GLTAH. Keep creeping higher please

[percy]

Visited Rolleston site this morning with a couple of friends who are also shareholders.

We were gobsmacked.

Going to be fantastic .

[whatsup]

Visited Rolleston site this morning with a couple of friends who are also shareholders.

We were gobsmacked.

Going to be fantastic .

Sounds good , maybe we could have the AGM on site there this year, please pass that on, cheers.

[Sideshow Bob]

Annual Report is out:

https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2248/original/FY20_PharmaZen_Annual_Report_Final.pdf?1619035569

[Sideshow Bob]

Annual Meeting notice

NOTICE OF ANNUAL SHAREHOLDER’S MEETING (usx.co.nz) (https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2249/original/Notice_of_Shareholder_Meeting_2021_Final.pdf?16190 35702)

[Sideshow Bob]

Couple of photos via Percy and another ST member:

12450

[Sideshow Bob]

12451

2nd photo.......

[percy]

Couple of photos via Percy and another ST member:

12450

Thanks for posting.
Former highly respected poster MiniMoke sent me them.Thanks MM.

[percy]

Couple of photos via Percy and another ST member:

12450

The second factory will be the same except for the bit at the back.This is a concrete bunker,where chemicals will be mixed and stored..Concrete floor,walls and roof with two $40,000 doors.[Fort knox.]

[Rocky145]

The second factory will be the same except for the bit at the back.This is a concrete bunker,where chemicals will be mixed and stored..Concrete floor,walls and roof with two $40,000 doors.[Fort knox.]

Went past there myself the other day and had to stop and check it out, agree looking very impressive.
Results continue to impress, enjoying the ride.
Will try and get up for the AGM Percy and look forward to that presentation and discussion, you may have to tell them to book a bigger room for this meeting if the increased interest on this site is a gauge of possible attendance.

[iceman]

Thanks Percy, S Bob & Minimoke, who is sadly missed from the site and always welcome back :-)

[whatsup]

WOW, .80 GONE, .85 GONE ,next stop $1-00 !!! , well done holders.

[iceman]

It is clear from reading the Chairman's comments in the Annual Report that delays with shipping and increased freight costs are causing significant issues. While sales growth was great in 2020 (+24%) gross margins stayed at a healthy 44% (-2%), NPBT up 30% and EPS up 35%, the Chairman states that Q1 in the current year has been challenging with lower sales than Q1 2020, extra freight costs being absorbed and delays in deliveries being experienced.

The 2 new dry freezers were planned to be operational in Q4 2020 & Q1 2021 but are delayed into Q2 + Q3 this year.
So there are some reasonably strong headwinds at the moment, at a time of significant construction of new production facilities.

I think it now looks like a very good idea to have sought a cash injection from CIBUS to fund the construction and near term growth as they did awhile back.

On the positive side we have a strong balance sheet, good cashflow and a strong demand for our products. But we may need to have some patience with this one, something I'm totally content with.
All seems to be going well that the Company management can control and issues causing concerns are out of their controls and being felt by almost every export/import business in NZ and around the World.

I do note that the Chairman and associated entities reduced their holdings by 2 million shares during the year, but all other Directors neither reduced nor increased their holdings.

A happy & patient holder :-)

[iceman]

All time high of 90c today on a fairly strong 100k shares traded. Not too shabby !

[whatsup]

All time high of 90c today on a fairly strong 100k shares traded. Not too shabby !

Nice, will crack a bubbles when they hit $1-00 !!

[iceman]

Nice, will crack a bubbles when they hit $1-00 !!

I'm over in Argentina and am starting to wonder if my laptop has started showing me the price in pesos, such are the lofty numbers :t_up::D

[RupertBear]

Nice, will crack a bubbles when they hit $1-00 !!

I have my bottle ready to go! What a wee cracker :t_up: thank you Percy :)

[stoploss]

I have my bottle ready to go! What a wee cracker :t_up: thank you Percy :)
Might have to wake the boys up at Jardens to update the reval , something conservative like .90 would do .:t_up:
Looking forward to catching up later in the month Percy ,the aftermatch drinks will taste so much better if we crack $ 1.00

[percy]

25 days ago the share price was 75 cents,and closed at 95 cents on Friday.A 20 cent or 26.66% increase..Incredible and on good volume.
So with 24 days to go to the agm,??
..
Now a big question for those who hold PAZ and SFF.
Which one will hit $2.00 first.?...lol

[whatsup]

.95's GONE .99 next stop, go you good thing !!

[percy]

Buyer at $1.00............Whoopee.!

[RTM]

Buyer at $1.00............Whoopee.!

Makes the math easy Percy.
Whooppeee indeed !

[RupertBear]

Buyer at $1.00............Whoopee.!

Double Whoopee :t_up:

[McPussPuss]

Wow, didn't think it would get to $1.0 prior to NZX listing!! There will be a few corks flying tonight.

[whatsup]

Nice, will crack a bubbles when they hit $1-00 !!

YES SIR will do $1-00 yupee !!

[whatsup]

Wow, didn't think it would get to $1.0 prior to NZX listing!! There will be a few corks flying tonight.

Who said they want a NZX listing SKE does O K in the unlisted !

[Joshuatree]

Thanks once again to Percy for bringing this to our attention at re 13c.

[stoploss]

Thanks once again to Percy for bringing this to our attention at re 13c.
Yes we are all in the
Percy
Appreciation
Zone

[Swala]

Count me in on that too.Thank you Percy. I have followed this thread for a couple of years now. Started buying just over a year ago and now my second biggest holding at an average price of 43cts. Holding for the long term and wouldn't be surprised to see this circa $5 within 10 years.

[RupertBear]

Yes we are all in the
Percy
Appreciation
Zone

yep I am also in the Percy Appreciation Zone! Thank you Percy :)

[justakiwi]

Me too but late to the party so hoping the SP doesn’t rocket too high before I can get some!

yep I am also in the Percy Appreciation Zone! Thank you Percy :)

[iceman]

Who said they want a NZX listing SKE does O K in the unlisted !

I don´t think we can ignore the fact that PAZ now has a European investment fund as a relatively large SH and I think it is only reasonable to assume they will want PAZ listed on a bigger platform, when the time is right, so they can more accurately account for and alter (increase/decrease) their holding in the future.

[whatsup]

I don´t think we can ignore the fact that PAZ now has a European investment fund as a relatively large SH and I think it is only reasonable to assume they will want PAZ listed on a bigger platform, when the time is right, so they can more accurately account for and alter (increase/decrease) their holding in the future.

Yes that could be the case , but IMO PAZ should "take big steps cautiously " !

[Beagle]

https://www.chemistwarehouse.co.nz/shop-online/4467/aiora Some extra good deals for a limited time. I loaded up. Some reckon blackcurrants are a super food, PAZ has its own blackcurrant product which I reckon works very well. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/blackcurrant-the-new-superfood-suppliers-producers-flock-to-foodstuffs-expo/QF37MSOA2FLUWQZFKBYMACNXOE/
I think its clear there's huge growth coming in the years ahead so no surprise to see the share price reflecting that. I'm looking forward to hearing more about their pet food plans. Demand for all things companion animals and everything required to treat them as a valuable member of the family has absolutely exploded due to Covid. The price of popular breed pure bred puppies has tripled or even quadrupled and in some cases even more from that I have observed and that's by no means a phenomenon exclusive to N.Z., its world-wide ! Seeing as they have a whole new factory and multiple dryers coming that are dedicated to pet food it would be nice to know a lot more about their plans. Specifically, what is it that's going to be unique about their pet food that sets it apart from other products in the market already ? Hopefully some info will be forthcoming at the annual meeting. I won't be attending but am looking forward to Percy's report and anyone else who chimes in too.

[whatsup]

Disappointing that PAZ couldnt hold $1-00 !

[Beagle]

Percy and friends attending the annual meeting tomorrow. Lots of questions about their pet food plans please.

[whatsup]

Percy and friends attending the annual meeting tomorrow. Lots of questions about their pet food plans please.

Will/Can there be a videolink, if so how can we like up ?

[percy]

https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2249/original/Notice_of_Shareholder_Meeting_2021_Final.pdf?16190 35702
https://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/agm/paz21/register
Note start time is 12.30 pm.tomorrow.

[whatsup]

Will/Can there be a videolink, if so how can we like up ?

PAZ thank you for that you have answered my question, well done must be reading S Ter!

[stoploss]

Wow what a stunning day Christchurch , see you all at 12.30 .
Cheers

S/L

[percy]

We all will be there...!!!

[Beagle]

.......................

[Beagle]

Good on Oliver Maunder for trying to drag them up to NZX disclosure standards...keep it up mate, nice work !

Oliver continues as a tenacious Terrier nipping at their heels on governance stuff...fabulous !

Sounds like something of a challenging year ahead but a very promising future !

[whatsup]

We all will be there...!!!

Percy while you are in Ch-Ch could you post some updated photos of the new factories etc ?

[nizzy]

Agree and success has brought with it a more engaged shareholder base and greater focus on the Board, which is positive. Still a way to go before ready for NZX or ASX listing.

[justakiwi]

Any word on them dropping the minimum holding?

[Tony Two Gloves]

Any word on them dropping the minimum holding?
Yes they discussed how with current SP it is no longer required to have a minimum.

[justakiwi]

Brilliant :t_up:

Thanks!


Yes they discussed how with current SP it is no longer required to have a minimum.

[petty]

That NZSA fellow was any embarrassment. Confrontational, argumentative and clearly grandstanding. Not a single contribution he made to the meeting couldn't have been raised offline. Thankfully others in the room asked much more enlightened and insightful questions. Long term hold for sure.

[percy]

A very positive meeting.
Good to run into so many sharetraders.
A great deal of work ahead getting the new Rolleston factories up and running, with building them,importing equipment arriving, and having the overseas technicians to install and get the equipment operational.
When PAZ is ready they will seek listing, on most probably the ASX or NZX, and at that time will have a constitution that will suit either exchange.At present time they are moving in that direction.
Long term holders have been well served by the directors ,and I think newcomer NSA's Oliver Mander may have got ahead of himself.Pity .
I spoke to Cibus Funds appointed director, Damon Petrie ,after the meeting.Told me he had spoken to PAZ's two largest customers.The" intellectual "for the ingredients they buy from PAZ belongs to PAZ.So they are completely reliant on PAZ.He was really pleased the equipment coming from China is only costing 30% of what it would cost elsewhere.Like a true money man he said it would give a lot better return on capital.!!!.Well I guess he is right,buying $20mil of equipment for $6 mil is pretty goodsort of saving..A welcome addition to the board.
Pet food.Freeze drying retains all the goodness that is normally lost through cooking and processing,so pets will be well served.

[nizzy]

That NZSA fellow was any embarrassment. Confrontational, argumentative and clearly grandstanding. Not a single contribution he made to the meeting couldn't have been raised offline. Thankfully others in the room asked much more enlightened and insightful questions. Long term hold for sure.
I disagree, he asked good questions on governance that needed asking and was respectful in doing so. Good to have NZSA there. AGMs shouldn't be cosy gatherings of the converted :)
Bright future indeed for PAZ but it wouldn't take much for a couple of wheels to fall off. Some hard strategic decisions down the track eg specialised ingredient supplier v's branded consumer play? Petfood v's human? Can they do it all? List or not? We need sharp engaged and open directors.

[garfy]

I watched the whole meeting, and was very impressed with the management who seems to have the companies progress well in hand, notwithstanding the obstacles thrown at them during the year. An impressive operation! Well done!!

[percy]

We need sharp engaged and open directors.

We have them already.
And the bonus is they have their own skin on the line.
There are 254,493,482 shares on issue.
At today's meeting shareholders holding close to 50% of the shares on issue were at the meeting.That shows real shareholder engagement.

[stoploss]

That NZSA fellow was any embarrassment. Confrontational, argumentative and clearly grandstanding. Not a single contribution he made to the meeting couldn't have been raised offline. Thankfully others in the room asked much more enlightened and insightful questions. Long term hold for sure.

Petty I disagree , he asked the questions in a respectful manner. If he didn't get the answer he required he followed up.You can't say he was grandstanding when he was just doing his job ( as much as you might dislike that )
He is representing the NZSA so presumably has to ask the questions forwarded to him by members of the association.
It sounds like dialogue was entered into before the meeting, but he still needed to cover some things off.
He had a point if the ultimate goal is NZX/ASX listing why not make it fully compliant now ?
The Chairman and the legal rep were able to answer the questions in any case so we can be assured in the interim everything complies
and its just another step to get to the end goal.
Nice to meet a few S/T members there .
Percy good to see you , see you at next years AGM ( all the best with your upcoming endeavours)
Thanks once again to Percy for bringing this great investment to our attention.
We are all in the Percy Appreciation Zone .

Cheers
S/L

[Beagle]

Oliver's young and enthusiastic enough to bring some fresh energy to the role of CEO at NZSA. I think he did a good job. Most companies need assertive shareholder engagement.
On the other hand as Percy has noted those there have plenty of skin in the game.

[percy]

Oliver's young and enthusiastic enough to bring some fresh energy to the role of CEO at NZSA. I think he did a good job. Most companies need assertive shareholder engagement.
On the other hand as Percy has noted those there have plenty of skin in the game.

And if had not been for the board's and the ceo's bloody mindedness the company would have failed with the ChCh earthquakes.Full stop.End of story.
Most board members would have slowly resigned,for the easy way out.
Not PAZ board.Stuck to their vision, and supported the business through all the lean years,and when PAZ needed money to expand fronted up,when very few shareholders did.[Yes that is when I fronted up].
I think if Oliver had been a long term shareholder,and had known the company's history he would have concentrated on thanking the board.A great success story.
I would doubt NSA would represent more than 1% of the shares on issue.The owners of the other 99% are over joyed with the success the company has achieved at the board's direction.
And as we know the real fun will happen in a year or two's time.
Cibus Fund capital ,and their Damon Petrie becoming a PAZ director, are the catalyst for PAZ starting to hit top gear.

ps.A few years ago PAZ's market cap was $14mil while Sea Dragon's was $52mil,or $59mil.Offcourse Sea Dragon were listed and were going to this that and the other thing.
Today PAZ's market cap is $241mil while Sea Dragon's is $12.75 mil.....
Let's see what happens over the next 4 years.

[justakiwi]

Did they give any indication of exactly when they will officially drop the minimum? As in, a date?


Yes they discussed how with current SP it is no longer required to have a minimum.

[percy]

I spoke to The Chairman after the meeting and he told me,he thought it was just a mater of advising Unlisted.
Should you run into any issues email margaret@waitakibio.co.nz and she should sort it out for you.

[justakiwi]

Thank you Percy :)


I spoke to The Chairman after the meeting and he told me,he thought it was just a mater of advising Unlisted.
Should you run into any issues email margaret@waitakibio.co.nz and she should sort it out for you.

[whatsup]

And if had not been for the board's and the ceo's bloody mindedness the company would have failed with the ChCh earthquakes.Full stop.End of story.
Most board members would have slowly resigned,for the easy way out.
Not PAZ board.Stuck to their vision, and supported the business through all the lean years,and when PAZ needed money to expand fronted up,when very few shareholders did.[Yes that is when I fronted up].
I think if Oliver had been a long term shareholder,and had known the company's history he would have concentrated on thanking the board.A great success story.
I would doubt NSA would represent more than 1% of the shares on issue.The owners of the other 99% are over joyed with the success the company has achieved at the board's direction.
And as we know the real fun will happen in a year or two's time.
Cibus Fund capital ,and their Damon Petrie becoming a PAZ director, are the catalyst for PAZ starting to hit top gear.

ps.A few years ago PAZ's market cap was $14mil while Sea Dragon's was $52mil,or $59mil.Offcourse Sea Dragon were listed and were going to this that and the other thing.
Today PAZ's market cap is $241mil while Sea Dragon's is $12.75 mil.....
Let's see what happens over the next 4 years.

Oliver does read S Ter and Im sure will take this on board.

[percy]

Oliver does read S Ter and Im sure will take this on board.

Should Oliver push for dedicated board members, such as PAZ's, he will be doing a great job for all NZ investors.

[Beagle]

And if had not been for the board's and the ceo's bloody mindedness the company would have failed with the ChCh earthquakes.Full stop.End of story.
Most board members would have slowly resigned,for the easy way out.
Not PAZ board.Stuck to their vision, and supported the business through all the lean years,and when PAZ needed money to expand fronted up,when very few shareholders did.[Yes that is when I fronted up].
I think if Oliver had been a long term shareholder,and had known the company's history he would have concentrated on thanking the board.A great success story.
I would doubt NSA would represent more than 1% of the shares on issue.The owners of the other 99% are over joyed with the success the company has achieved at the board's direction.
And as we know the real fun will happen in a year or two's time.
Cibus Fund capital ,and their Damon Petrie becoming a PAZ director, are the catalyst for PAZ starting to hit top gear.

ps.A few years ago PAZ's market cap was $14mil while Sea Dragon's was $52mil,or $59mil.Offcourse Sea Dragon were listed and were going to this that and the other thing.
Today PAZ's market cap is $241mil while Sea Dragon's is $12.75 mil.....
Let's see what happens over the next 4 years.

Fair enough mate, I respect your opinion. I like Oliver though, had a couple of beers with him just before he was appointed as CEO to the NZSA. I like his energy and enthusiasm and I am sure he will serve the shareholders association members very well indeed.

[percy]

Fair enough mate, I respect your opinion. I like Oliver though, had a couple of beers with him just before he was appointed as CEO to the NZSA. I like his energy and enthusiasm and I am sure he will serve the shareholders association members very well indeed.

I agree.A great appointment,

[Sideshow Bob]

1254412545

Latest pictures, courtesy of Percy & MM.

[whatsup]

1254412545

Latest pictures, courtesy of Percy & MM.

Percy, Thank you for that, moving right along.

[percy]

Percy, Thank you for that, moving right along.

Minimoke we have to thank for sending me the photos,and Sideshow Bob for posting them..
No shown are the huge power transformers at the gate.The freeze driers use a huge amount of power.The power company is, or has laid bigger capacity power cables along the road.

[Beagle]

Minimoke we have to thank for sending me the photos,and Sideshow Bob for posting them..
No shown are the huge power transformers at the gate.The freeze driers use a huge amount of power.The power company is, or has laid bigger capacity power cables along the road.

In a few years time the company will have grown so big we'll have to ask Cindy to help us get a sweetheart deal for the Manopouri power Tiwai point is no longer using :D

[whatsup]

In a few years time the company will have grown so big we'll have to ask Cindy to help us get a sweetheart deal for the Manopouri power Tiwai point is no longer using :D

Cindy wouldnt have a clue about any commercial deal, social B S yes , but commercial, what is that ?

[Mr Slothbear]

And if had not been for the board's and the ceo's bloody mindedness the company would have failed with the ChCh earthquakes.Full stop.End of story.
Most board members would have slowly resigned,for the easy way out.
Not PAZ board.Stuck to their vision, and supported the business through all the lean years,and when PAZ needed money to expand fronted up,when very few shareholders did.[Yes that is when I fronted up].
I think if Oliver had been a long term shareholder,and had known the company's history he would have concentrated on thanking the board.A great success story.
I would doubt NSA would represent more than 1% of the shares on issue.The owners of the other 99% are over joyed with the success the company has achieved at the board's direction.
And as we know the real fun will happen in a year or two's time.
Cibus Fund capital ,and their Damon Petrie becoming a PAZ director, are the catalyst for PAZ starting to hit top gear.

ps.A few years ago PAZ's market cap was $14mil while Sea Dragon's was $52mil,or $59mil.Offcourse Sea Dragon were listed and were going to this that and the other thing.
Today PAZ's market cap is $241mil while Sea Dragon's is $12.75 mil.....
Let's see what happens over the next 4 years.


Hear hear! Results say it all.

if results continue to be like this it doesn’t matter at all what exchange they’re on.

build it and they will come

I was very keen to come to the meeting and meet Percy and everyone but sadly had to work. Thanks for all your input

[petty]

Hey team obviously agree with Percy comments. Some other questions I have that someone maybe be able to provide insight into.

a) Lots of discussion about progress towards increasing production but not alot of chat about how they are going to get this sold. Seems to me that the play is build it and they will come. Aside from metrics showing the market size is growing what else exists to show that their customers are going to buy more?
b) I didn't think Cibus did a good job of indicating the value they are bringing. They gap between market price at the time and what they sold to Cibus for was around 30c if I recall (I haven't fact checked this but its closish). It didn't seem obvious to me that Cibus showed how they brought 30c worth of value to PAZ over other sources of capital that could have been accessed alot cheaper including from current shareholders. I kind of expected Cibus to say they had a network of sales channels in Europe or Asia that they could open up or something equally valuable but I thought they were pretty silent on the value they could bring. Anyone got thoughts on this?

[stoploss]

Hey team obviously agree with Percy comments. Some other questions I have that someone maybe be able to provide insight into.

a) Lots of discussion about progress towards increasing production but not alot of chat about how they are going to get this sold. Seems to me that the play is build it and they will come. Aside from metrics showing the market size is growing what else exists to show that their customers are going to buy more?
b) I didn't think Cibus did a good job of indicating the value they are bringing. They gap between market price at the time and what they sold to Cibus for was around 30c if I recall (I haven't fact checked this but its closish). It didn't seem obvious to me that Cibus showed how they brought 30c worth of value to PAZ over other sources of capital that could have been accessed alot cheaper including from current shareholders. I kind of expected Cibus to say they had a network of sales channels in Europe or Asia that they could open up or something equally valuable but I thought they were pretty silent on the value they could bring. Anyone got thoughts on this?

If you listened in you would have heard when A2 got a mention there was general laughter at the AGM. In terms of the demand I spoke to the chairman after the meeting and asked this . He said they have a massive amount of demand they cannot supply . Also they are not a one trick Pony IE it's not all infant milk powder going predominantly to China...they have a multitude of products into different markets. That product range will increase as they get the new dryers etc setup.
I agree with your point re Cibus , I think it will be a wait and see .
However as Percy has pointed out ,the board have a lot of skin in the game so if it's good for that amount of shares , it's got to be good for my small parcel.

[Sideshow Bob]

AGM Recording:

PharmaZen AGM (vimeo.com) (https://vimeo.com/553091512/72938af5cb)

[Oliver Mander]

Hi all...thought I'd respond to some of the comments made on here. First off, I want to make clear that there was a discussion between myself and PAZ execs prior to the meeting - there were no surprises. We assess ALL companies against the same set of standards; it wouldn't be right of me to ignore some holes in disclosure solely because they have been performing well. No one would thank me if I ignored it, patted the directors on the back and said it didn't matter and then PAZ ran into issues.

I've attached a link to the report (https://nzshareholders.sharepoint.com/:b:/g/EXmmDN4eJW5CoyalM-OyRRoBtHlHp3w5E5c67hqT-Otp9Q?e=BK21vW) we produced for PAZ. It's a one off - normally, only members get to see it. We produce these for every NZX-listed company and the 7-8 USX ones we are covering this year. You may not agree with every statement, but at least you know why we are saying what we do. The positions we adopt are backed by evidence-based research or international bodies.

NZSA did take a 'gentle approach' in terms of supporting the two new directors - there was no description of their capabilities (ie, biography) provided in the Notice of Meeting, and we worked with the company to get some information published so that we could support those resolutions. If it was FBU, HGH or any other NZX company, I suspect most shareholders would take a pretty dim view of not having any information about what they were supposed to be voting on.

I raised questions around a few additional issues, however, associated with due diligence (meaning that one shareholder has a LOT more information than anyone else) and the potential workload of the new director. I was not the only one to ask 'difficult' questions, with one shareholder asking about the redemption terms associated with the newly issued preference shares.

I also asked some further questions about the company's new constitution, as I signalled I would prior to the meeting.

All the issues are relevant. NZSA cannot support any arrangement that disenfranchises shareholders - the new PAZ one does this by not allowing shareholders to vote on Board appointments. The company answered this very well, and I understand the context, but no matter how positive the intent the fact remains that shareholders can only elect 5/7 Board members. While director workload is not an issue when things are "sunshine and roses", it does become an issue when the proverbial hits the spinning thing. Just ask some directors how they felt between March - June last year. Had a biography of Damon Petrie been provided as part of the NoM, there would have been no need to ask that question. Again, Damon was transparent in his answer.

For what its worth, I agree that the Board and Exec have done a good job in tough times - percy, I'm limited in what I can say about performance, in case NZSA is seen to be 'endorsing' the company and runs foul of financial advice regulations. In any case, there were plenty of other people saying that. And, petty, if I wanted to 'grandstand', I didn't pick the forum well - asking questions when there are 40-odd happy, content and committed shareholders in the room is hardly a way for me to get positive exposure. I don't consciously seek to 'grandstand' or seek exposure for the sake of it; I'm simply transparent as to issues, as indeed I have to be. Had I asked those same questions where investor sentiment is a little less favourable, you would probably have been cheering from the sidelines - but that is a very 'ambulance' at the bottom of the cliff' approach. I'd rather highlight issues before they become a problem, especially when the company has a great future in front of it.

Importantly, PAZ have taken the concerns raised seriously - they were willing to engage and have committed to improve disclosure standards ahead of the next ASM. From a shareholder perspective, I think that shows the calibre of your Board and management team; that they can take on board constructive comment and focus on continuous improvement of standards.

From an NZSA perspective, I always welcome feedback. Drop me a line (either via sharetrader or at ceo@nzshareholders.co.nz) if there's any comment you wish to make. While I'm making changes in how we engage and what we do, the core principles I've inherited from my predecessors, in terms of improving the lot of retail shareholders, remain as strong as ever.

Happy investing everybody.

[iceman]

Thanks for your constructive response Oliver.

[Arthur]

Thanks Oliver, these are the sort of questions that should be raised at an AGM. Too many shareholders just go for the sausage rolls.

[percy]

Yes thank you Oliver,for taking the time to share your in depth work.
A pretty amazing company,adapting to becoming a much bigger company.
The due diligence Cibus did on PAZ ,like NZSA's highlighted areas PAZ need to develop:,systems and people to take the business forward.Mike Gallagher and Damon Petrie will add a lot to an already very capable board.
Yes rights issues are best for all shareholders,and I think PAZ did want to go that way,however after the fiasco of their last capital raise it was not an option.
Rather than having a supplier, NZ / Chinese Fund as an investor I think Cibus is a great choice.
We must also remember negotiations with Cibus started very early last year ,when PAZ's share price was [from memory] well under 50 cents.

[percy]

Thanks Oliver, these are the sort of questions that should be raised at an AGM. Too many shareholders just go for the sausage rolls.

Perhaps at this year's as there were a lot of people there.
However I know the three people who came from Nelson and Wellington have solid holldings.
As per an earlier post I figure the shareholders who were there hold over 50% of the total shares on issue.
Had the UK based director Dr.Wayne Burt been able to travel that would have taken the number up to over 60%.
Must admit I did enjoy the tucka.lol.

[Oliver Mander]

Perhaps at this year's as there were a lot of people there.
However I know the three people who came from Nelson and Wellington have solid holldings.
As per an earlier post I figure the shareholders who were there hold over 50% of the total shares on issue.
Had the UK based director Dr.Wayne Burt been able to travel that would have taken the number up to over 60%.
Must admit I did enjoy the tucka.lol.

Wish I'd met you there Percy. Next time. I'm the former 'sylvester cat' in case you didn't realise...

[percy]

Wish I'd met you there Percy. Next time. I'm the former 'sylvester cat' in case you didn't realise...

Yes next time.Should be interesting with hopefully both new factories up and running.
Yes I realised you are the former 'sylvester cat'.
The number of Sharetrader posters holding PAZ is getting up.Possibly now holding between 7mil and 10 mil shares.

ps.Pleasing to know NZSA are following some Unlisted companies.

[Beagle]

Awesome annual meeting and what an exciting future this company has. Talk about strong growth ahead !!

[iceman]

Thanks for posting the recording of the link Sideshow Bob. A great watch with tough, high growth (and the accompanying challenges) but exciting few years ahead.
I think Oliver's questions were fair and well handled by the Co.
All good and no doubt PAZ will be listing on a bigger bourse in a few years time, hopefully the NZX.

[percy]

In today's Queens Birthday Honours,it is pleasing to see a founder and former Chairman of PAZ. Dr.Maxwell Gilbert Shepherd JP, awarded a Companions of Order [CNZM] for services to biotechnology and business.
Long term shareholders of PAZ, will be well aware if it had not been for his [and Craig McIntosh's] vision, and sheer bloody mindedness,financial support,and clear direction, PAZ would have failed years ago.
A true gentleman.

[garfy]

Thank you for that post Percy. And congratulations too Dr Shepherd!!

[whatsup]

PAZ down below .90 now I guess that the S P will have to wait until next years results , circa .86, hope it does not fall too much more.

[percy]

I had to stop for a slow moving train a couple of days ago.
Seemed quiet a long train.Counted 25 containers.Then I thought of PAZ.and the 50 forty foot containers of equipment they have coming.!!!!
So building two new factories and getting them up and running will mean they have their work cut out for the next 12 to 18 months.
In the meantime Port Hills Road factory will be running at full capacity trying to catch up with demand.
Next update is due in about 6 weeks, their interim result.
I still do not think the real fun will start until August 2022 interim,where I think they will give some rather exciting projections, which will make buying today at under 90 cents a gift..

ps.We life in interesting times.
Big race between PAZ and SFF to get to S2 per share.First of all they have to get back to $1.
Today PAZ are 86 cents while SFF are 85 cents.
I am guessing PAZ will be the winner.[maybe that is because I hold a lot more PAZ].lol.

[Beagle]

Had a good listen to a replay of the annual meeting today. Craig talked about revenue doubling by FY24 and margins improving. 50 containers of equipment due in the next 3-4 months, (as of late May) but real problems with freight logistics. I guess we'll get an update on how they're getting on with those challenges early next month with the half year report.

[Langara]

Has anybody done a drive by of the PAZ Christchurch building sites lately, be great to know how they are coming along?!

[iceman]

Has anybody done a drive by of the PAZ Christchurch building sites lately, be great to know how they are coming along?!

Got this from local observer/spy Percy 10 days ago. I'm sure he doesn't mind me sharing it here:

" I went out and checked the progress on PAZ's Rolleston factory. Foundations are complete, roof is on, interior framework on office in progress and the power transofrers in place at the gate.Power company are laying bigger cables from their substation for PAZ & other users. Power co pays for transformers etc. PAZ pay to connect to factory. Base metal has been laid around the factory and street access. Couple of new tanks out the back likely for use in the extraction plant. Hard to say how far away they are from having it in operation but pleasing seeing it happen"

[Beagle]

Half year result announcement last year was 6 August so they may be reporting again quite soon.

[Beagle]

Buy one Aiora product get one free - coupon code is aiora50
https://manage.kmail-lists.com/subscriptions/web-view?a=T7LbhD&c=01F2Q59HVYW44D0D0RRKWKBYS8&k=debdb44da0125a052c0c0f4cdb5252e5&m=VfVLbU&r=CKd7AGz

I loaded up. I especially find the bone and joint tablets helpful and the blackcurrant ones good for my eyes and blood pressure. 5 star rating from me.

While stocks last or until 31 August.

[justakiwi]

Thanks. Giving it a try.


Buy one Aiora product get one free - coupon code is aiora50
https://manage.kmail-lists.com/subscriptions/web-view?a=T7LbhD&c=01F2Q59HVYW44D0D0RRKWKBYS8&k=debdb44da0125a052c0c0f4cdb5252e5&m=VfVLbU&r=CKd7AGz

I loaded up. I especially find the bone and joint tablets helpful and the blackcurrant ones good for my eyes and blood pressure. 5 star rating from me.

While stocks last or until 31 August.

[stoploss]

Buy one Aiora product get one free - coupon code is aiora50
https://manage.kmail-lists.com/subscriptions/web-view?a=T7LbhD&c=01F2Q59HVYW44D0D0RRKWKBYS8&k=debdb44da0125a052c0c0f4cdb5252e5&m=VfVLbU&r=CKd7AGz

I loaded up. I especially find the bone and joint tablets helpful and the blackcurrant ones good for my eyes and blood pressure. 5 star rating from me.

While stocks last or until 31 August.

Some of us loaded up at the AGM :t_up:

[percy]

https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2318/original/Supply_Chain_Challenges_-_Aug_2021.pdf?1628191018

Short term pain for long term gain.
Not unexpected.

[Sideshow Bob]

On the face of it, quite a disappointing result. Unfortunately no financials to go along with it.

While understand the production issues and greater costs, decrease of sales by circa 10% is probably my biggest concern.

[couta1]

https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2318/original/Supply_Chain_Challenges_-_Aug_2021.pdf?1628191018

Short term pain for long term gain.
Not unexpected. I'm keen to snap up any cheap shares the market offers up meantime, good things take time and this company is a very good thing. Disc-My largest holding at around 40% of my portfolio.

[iceman]

On the face of it, quite a disappointing result. Unfortunately no financials to go along with it.

While understand the production issues and greater costs, decrease of sales by circa 10% is probably my biggest concern.

I understand what you're saying BUT are the lower sales numbers really a big concern when the largest freeze dryer had to be shut down for 4 months due to installation of a new one ?
Sadly I think this worsening performance is largely due to COVID related issues, i.e. closed border (no technicians allowed in) & shipping cost increases. The latter sadly not going anywhere anytime soon.

Great to see that they expect the Nuttall Drive factory to be completed this month

Welcome back couta1 :-)

[Sideshow Bob]

I understand what you're saying BUT are the lower sales numbers really a big concern when the largest freeze dryer had to be shut down for 4 months due to installation of a new one ?
Sadly I think this worsening performance is largely due to COVID related issues, i.e. closed border (no technicians allowed in) & shipping cost increases. The latter sadly not going anywhere anytime soon.

Great to see that they expect the Nuttall Drive factory to be completed this month

Welcome back couta1 :-)

Looks like a few smaller holders haven't liked it, and shaken a few loose - traded down to 75c today, but only about 154k through.

PAZ trades on a fairly high multiple, and even today has a market cap of almost $200m. While holders have to believe the story and future prospects, anytime when revenue goes backwards is a problem to me - regardless of the reason and especially when they say demand isn't the issue. In my mind, simply have to find a way to service those customers before they go elsewhere. Without knowing all the details and signifcantly affecting production/sales, having a machine out of action for 4 months sounds like a bit of a **** up.

The freeze-dryer issue is unfortunate, without enginneering support - and an clearly unforeseen risk of not buying out of NZ.

Anyway, sound bullish for the 2nd HY so have to trust this.

Yes, welcome back Couta. Might get your wish on a few cheapies.....

[Beagle]

Yes a very warm welcome back to my old mate Couta1 who I enjoyed a very good chat by telephone with earlier this week.

Secondly a HUGE THANK YOU you to Percy for his work with this one for which I am most appreciative.

From the annual meeting its was clear their overall goal is to double revenue and earnings in the next 3 years. If this was achieved we would see earnings of about 3 cps in the year ended 31 December 2023 eps for Fy20 1.77 cps x 2 = 3.54 less about 14% for the extra shares on issue as a result of the recent placement = ~ 3 cps. If this targeted growth rate can be achieved we would see earnings growing at an average rate of 20% per annum in FY21, FY22 and FY23.

If this is achievable I there fore value the shares at v = eps x (n + 1g) where eps is historical eps of 1.77 n = no growth rate of a stock which is currently 11 + 1g where g is the average expected growth rate over the next 5 years.
Using this primary vaoluation tool I therefore valued PAZ at 1.77 x (11+20) = 1.77 x 31 = ~ 55 cps.

I emphasize that this is my own methodology to find GARP stocks (Growth at a reasonable price). I accepted that sometimes shares trade above this formula based on other factors and that could have been the possibility that through economies of scale they could have grown their gross margin.

For some time now I have had valuation concerns, (historical PE of 54 at 95 cps and have been reducing my holding as I felt 95 cents was too far above my core beliefs as a GARP investor.
In addition there are liquidity concerns, no dividend and some discount to standard valuation methodology applicable to main board listed companies must be applied to be fair seeing as this is unlisted.

I was underwhelmed by comments at the annual meeting that Aiora was launched just as Covid hit and this hurt their chances of selling through the Daigou channel. This isn't coming back for years in my opinion.

Challenges around Covid with all that implies will in my opinion be enduring for many years. I think there are real risks around the execution of their plans and the above mentioned targets are now very challenging indeed.

It is clear that freight costs, technical installation staff availability, daigou distribution challenges and exchange rate headwinds are issues that are strong and enduring which further exacerbates my valuation concerns.

Finally, hitting 60 in 3 months I have resolved that from this point on if a company is NOT paying me dividends so I can enjoy a relaxed and comfortable semi-retirement it no longer meets my investment criteria.

In summary I feel a huge amount, (if not all), of the growth in the foreseeable future is already baked into the current share price, even at 75 cents (after considering the severity of the impact of these headwinds for FY21), so I completed my exit today.

I sincerely wish holders the very best and once again thank Percy for his extensive input on PAZ.

[stoploss]

Yes a very warm welcome back to my old mate Couta1 who I enjoyed a very good chat by telephone with earlier this week.

Secondly a HUGE THANK YOU you to Percy for his work with this one for which I am most appreciative.

From the annual meeting its was clear their overall goal is to double revenue and earnings in the next 3 years. If this was achieved we would see earnings of about 3 cps in the year ended 31 December 2023 eps for Fy20 1.77 cps x 2 = 3.54 less about 14% for the extra shares on issue as a result of the recent placement = ~ 3 cps. If this targeted growth rate can be achieved we would see earnings growing at an average rate of 20% per annum in FY21, FY22 and FY23.

If this is achievable I there fore value the shares at v = eps x (n + 1g) where eps is historical eps of 1.77 n = no growth rate of a stock which is currently 11 + 1g where g is the average expected growth rate over the next 5 years.
Using this primary vaoluation tool I therefore valued PAZ at 1.77 x (11+20) = 1.77 x 31 = ~ 55 cps.

I emphasize that this is my own methodology to find GARP stocks (Growth at a reasonable price). I accepted that sometimes shares trade above this formula based on other factors and that could have been the possibility that through economies of scale they could have grown their gross margin.

For some time now I have had valuation concerns, (historical PE of 54 at 95 cps and have been reducing my holding as I felt 95 cents was too far above my core beliefs as a GARP investor.
In addition there are liquidity concerns, no dividend and some discount to standard valuation methodology applicable to main board listed companies must be applied to be fair seeing as this is unlisted.

I was underwhelmed by comments at the annual meeting that Aiora was launched just as Covid hit and this hurt their chances of selling through the Daigou channel. This isn't coming back for years in my opinion.

Challenges around Covid with all that implies will in my opinion be enduring for many years. I think there are real risks around the execution of their plans and the above mentioned targets are now very challenging indeed.

It is clear that freight costs, technical installation staff availability, daigou distribution challenges and exchange rate headwinds are issues that are strong and enduring which further exacerbates my valuation concerns.

Finally, hitting 60 in 3 months I have resolved that from this point on if a company is NOT paying me dividends so I can enjoy a relaxed and comfortable semi-retirement it no longer meets my investment criteria.

In summary I feel a huge amount, (if not all), of the growth in the foreseeable future is already baked into the current share price, even at 75 cents (after considering the severity of the impact of these headwinds for FY21), so I completed my exit today.

I sincerely wish holders the very best and once again thank Percy for his extensive input on PAZ.

Thanks for that Beagle , I was the beneficiary of some of your selling .
I hear you loud and clear .
If this heads South or flatlines , no worries we heard you .Please don't turn this into another A2.
Re the Diagou channel. I'm not too worried I think they are going to make more money from their bulk sales to smoothie makers and the likes , plus affectionate Beagle owners in the future
with dried pet food treats...

Cheers

S/L

[Beagle]

Naturally I reserve the right to post other relevant thoughts that I think might help others in their understanding of this company. Lessons have been learned from the ATM fiasco.

I am still very much in the PAZ zone (Percy Appreciation zone) and really appreciate how he has helped me on my investment journey.
I hope this does really, really well but there are serious challenges ahead apparent to me. More than happy to show my support with continued ordering of the two Aiora products I mentioned yesterday which I think are really good. In fact I am sure the blackcurrant one is exceptionally good for your eyes and blood pressure. Doctor was very happy with my blood pressure today (it is normally up at this time of year with work pressure and me being a fat lazy dog with a strong dislike for regular walks in the winter, so I don't do them).

[couta1]

Thanks for the welcome back comments although it will be in a very limited way and mainly on this thread(Not worth commenting on the A2 thread even though I still have a stout holding)
I see no reason to sell any of these shares after today's report unless you need the money or its an estate selldown, in fact i added another good number today and would have bought all of Beagles plus a few more(I have the latest shareholder list so i know. Lol)This is my only true long term investment and I have a number in mind that I want to hit and still have a bit to go.
There will come a time when you won't be able to buy these at current prices so over the next while is the time to buy or add IMO.

[Czechmate]

I have been trying to buy using their latest offer keeps rejecting my info despite being clearly correct.

Frustrating and a sign of poor marketing nous?

Also who thought up the truely forgeble name of Aiora?

Just saying,
I am not selling but having some doubts about their offering.

[percy]

I have been trying to buy using their latest offer keeps rejecting my info despite being clearly correct.

Frustrating and a sign of poor marketing nous?

Also who thought up the truely forgeble name of Aiora?

Just saying,
I am not selling but having some doubts about their offering.

I tried ordering ,but made mistakes.Wanted 2 Bone + joint bottles, and code did not work.Thought ordering one bottle I would get the free one.Had to order two.
Tried again and went to pay ,entered code then the correct amount [$29.99] came up.Arrived this afternoon.Great buying at $15 each.I use for my worn out hip,while number one daughter uses for her hair,and gets stronger nails..
Was in Bargain Chemist Eastgate this morning.Buy one Aiora product and get a different one free.I brought a Vascular =Vision for the wife,who has trouble with her eyes.Paid $27.99 and received a free Bone + Joint.Great buying at $14 each.
AiOra name was designed for the Asian market.Those markets like to buy the same product that is available in NZ.I think aiora means good health.
PAZ supply ingredients to US and Europe,so at this stage the AiOra products will not be sold in those markets, so as PAZ does not compete with major bulk ingredient customers.

PS You are lucky your spelling only has to be excused on a Friday night..!...lol.

[Czechmate]

Excuse my spelling it is Friday night!

[iceman]

Y

Challenges around Covid with all that implies will in my opinion be enduring for many years. I think there are real risks around the execution of their plans and the above mentioned targets are now very challenging indeed.

It is clear that freight costs, technical installation staff availability, daigou distribution challenges and exchange rate headwinds are issues that are strong and enduring which further exacerbates my valuation concerns.



Thanks for your valuable thoughts and calculations Beagle. I am well content and happy with progress and will not be selling any anytime soon. I totally agree with the issues you mention above about COVID related costs and restriction negatively impacting PAZ. But sadly I think the current strict border closures and movements of people and freight are doing much more economical harm than most people in NZ seem to realise and will be seen in financials for almost all exporters in importers in the next couple of years,. I suspect it will be quite ugly for many.

[couta1]

Any panic sellers will have the weekend to contemplate the outlook in the result before offering up their shares for sale, Friday announcements can be a good thing. Lol

[Beagle]

https://usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2070/original/PharmaZen_H1_2020_Press_Release_.pdf?1596659417

https://usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2318/original/Supply_Chain_Challenges_-_Aug_2021.pdf?1628191018

Just a couple of things I want to highlight as a numbers man and nuances around the differences between the press release last year and yesterday.

Last year's announcement was quite clear about not just EBITDA but also net profit before tax, see first link above. This years information release made no mention of the profit or loss but only referred to Trading EBITDA. Note they have not used the phrase Trading EBITDA before, see second link above.

How did I interpret this yesterday ?

Firstly it should be noted that last year the difference between EBITDA, (not trading EBITDA) and net profit before tax was ~ $1m. If we assume the same level of expenses between the EBITDA line and net profit line this half, (its likely to be much higher in my opinion, see below), then Trading EBITDA of $776K less ~ approx $1m in expenses below this line means it is likely they made a material net loss before tax for the 6 months. I think it is "unfortunate" that did not make this clear and will leave it to others to speculate as to why they didn't want to announce what the real loss was.

Now back to the new use of the term "trading" EBITDA. It would appear there were some material costs associated with the capital raise and they have been keen to exclude them from the EBITDA figure by use of the new phrase "Trading EBITDA". These are likely however to have to be disclosed below the EBITDA line and before the net profit / loss line rather than treated as an extraordinary item so this is likely to add to the net loss it would appear the company incurred in the first half, which could be a material figure before being exacerbated by capital raising costs.

Not trying to talk it down. Its just that not everyone has the skills of a bean counter or understands the nuances of financial reports or reporting methodologies so I just want to make these things a bit more transparent, (seeing as the company itself appeared for reasons best known to itself), to release the information in a less than completely transparent way. Please make your own assessment of why they chose to do this.

Finally I observed (speaking of numbers), that they talked yesterday about 45 shipping containers awaiting shipment, down just 5 from the 50 shipping containers they talked about being a major problem back at the annual meeting. So in the last two months and one week they have procured a solution for just 10% of this new plant that desperately needs to be shipped here. (Refer back to the points I made yesterday about the execution risks in their growth strategy).

Not trying to antagonize anyone on here. I just want to make sure people are aware of these things so they can decide what to do about it, if anything for themselves.

Last year there was not a further release of information between 6 August 2020 and the capital raise of 15 January 2021, more than 5 months. From this we can infer that nothing further may be forthcoming for quite some time and investors are quite probably deliberately left in the dark perhaps until they report the full year results in March / April 2022 ?

Isn't that concealment of highly relevant financial information for a very long time ? Surely investors deserve to know the real loss for the six month period so they are not disadvantaged compared to "insiders" ?
No company on the main board would be allowed to conduct themselves in such a way. I guess this highlights the extra risks on investing in the unlisted market. Maybe our resident shareholders association CEO expert might take an interest in this ?

[percy]

DATES of.................
........................................ Annual report .........................and Interim report
Year
2005....................................30th March.
2006....................................21th March
2007....................................20th March
2008.....................................1st April......................................10th November
2009 .....................................6th April......................................23rd October
2010......................................8th April......................................28th July
2011.....................................21st April......................................20th August
2012.....................................27th April......................................16th August
2013......................................28th March....................................12th July
2014.....................................4th April..........................................26t h September
2015......................................10th April........................................27th July
2016.......................................4th April
2017.....................................11th April.........................................16th October
2018.....................................26th March........................................11th September
2019.......................................4th April...........................................1s t August
2020......................................2nd March.........................................6th August
2021......................................22nd April..........................................6th August.
So looks to me as though they usually announce their annual result in April and their interim in August.
Maybe just maybe we will get an update before April next year.? Maybe not.
In the meantime I will do the odd trip out to Rolleston to enjoy seeing the progress they are making.

[percy]

https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2305/original/Unlisted_Press_Release_re_Annual_Reporting_260721. pdf?1627268004
Pleasing seeing PAZ getting their interim out so promptly.Just 6 weeks since 30th June.

[Beagle]

Maybe its just me Percy, being a bean counter, perhaps others don't care....but its not really an interim report in the sense of the term normally associated with interim reports we get for all other companies with full financial statements like for example HLG or WHS is it !

This time they don't even tell us what the net loss was and appear to be trying to conceal the fact there was a loss for the period (concealment of relevant financial information is a VERY BAD LOOK) and instead focus on what the total addressable market might be in 2027 (marketing speak ?).. How is that even relevant in a press release when they already talked about that at the annual meeting ? and yet something so important as what is the actual net profit or loss after tax s is not disclosed ? It isn't right...in fact its a long way from being acceptable.

Even if we overlook this highly relevant thing there's one other little nuance to this years press release compared to last year...just a "minor" thing, but one that makes it literally impossible to forecast another "minor" think called earnings per share. They talked about confidence in the second half this year and yet any forecast for FY21 is conspicuously absent from this years announcement, (extract from August 2020 press release follows)
Mr McIntosh said PharmaZen is optimistic about the outlook for the full year and is forecasting EBITDA of more than $7.4m on sales exceeding $21m. EBITDA was $5.4m in 2019. At least that was enough last year so I could have a crack at estimating earnings per share..but this year...nothing to work on. Hmmm

Why no forecast for FY21 this year ? Make of that what you will... Its what's NOT being said with PAZ that left me so concerned. Finally, they talked about currency headwinds causing them headwinds of EBITDA of ~ $1m in the most recent period compared to the same period last year.

I understand the 10 year average currency is in the high 60's so I see last years currency exchange rate in the mid - late 50's US as being an unusual "tailwind" rather than this year being a currency "headwind" per se. Why didn't they lock in forward cover on the exchange rate when the rate was so attractive last year ? Anyway back to currency..to me the current level which is quite normal has implications for the gross margin going forward and I read today in the Herald, (paywalled link below) that current shipping rates have doubled again from already highly elevated level's prevailing in March, (middle of the period they just reported), so freight and logistics will be an even bigger headwind going forward (for the foreseeable future), than they have in the past :eek2:

Getting those 45 containers that are stuck in China shipped here (at any cost), might be easier said than done. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/freight-at-the-centre-of-a-storm-that-threatens-entire-global-economy/R2BFDQ5CCYAFKOF6F4E3GZWFWU/

Finding staff for their increased processing capacity next year might be easier said than done too as many other companies are discovering. Like I said, execution risk is very real and the risk of the very strong growing pains of 2021 flowing over into FY22 as well, is quite real in my opinion.

[percy]

Yes plenty of issues,arising from Covid 19.Yet Covid 19 is making more people aware of looking after their health,which is expanding PAZ's market..
A lot to forward to.
They own the land at Rolleston.
They have the finance to complete Port Hills Road new factory,and build two new factories at Rolleston.
The new factory at Port Hills nearly up and running,and the first Rolleston factory is well under way.Second will follow.
Attracting good staff has not been an issue.
The build program has brought forward about 5 or 6 years expansion,so short term pain is not unexpected,.
The company remains on course to achieve its long term goals,ie Port Hills Road at full capacity and the two new factories at Rolleston to keep up with growing demand.

[couta1]

Maybe its just me Percy, being a bean counter, perhaps others don't care....but its not really an interim report in the sense of the term normally associated with interim reports we get for all other companies with full financial statements like for example HLG or WHS is it !

This time they don't even tell us what the net loss was and appear to be trying to conceal the fact there was a loss for the period (concealment of relevant financial information is a VERY BAD LOOK) and instead focus on what the total addressable market might be in 2027 (marketing speak ?).. How is that even relevant in a press release when they already talked about that at the annual meeting ? and yet something so important as what is the actual net profit or loss after tax s is not disclosed ? It isn't right...in fact its a long way from being acceptable.

Even if we overlook this highly relevant thing there's one other little nuance to this years press release compared to last year...just a "minor" thing, but one that makes it literally impossible to forecast another "minor" think called earnings per share. They talked about confidence in the second half this year and yet any forecast for FY21 is conspicuously absent from this years announcement, (extract from August 2020 press release follows) At least that was enough last year so I could have a crack at estimating earnings per share..but this year...nothing to work on. Hmmm

Why no forecast for FY21 this year ? Make of that what you will... Its what's NOT being said with PAZ that left me so concerned. Finally, they talked about currency headwinds causing them headwinds of EBITDA of ~ $1m in the most recent period compared to the same period last year.

I understand the 10 year average currency is in the high 60's so I see last years currency exchange rate in the mid - late 50's US as being an unusual "tailwind" rather than this year being a currency "headwind" per se. Why didn't they lock in forward cover on the exchange rate when the rate was so attractive last year ? Anyway back to currency..to me the current level which is quite normal has implications for the gross margin going forward and I read today in the Herald, (paywalled link below) that current shipping rates have doubled again from already highly elevated level's prevailing in March, (middle of the period they just reported), so freight and logistics will be an even bigger headwind going forward (for the foreseeable future), than they have in the past :eek2:

Getting those 45 containers that are stuck in China shipped here (at any cost), might be easier said than done. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/freight-at-the-centre-of-a-storm-that-threatens-entire-global-economy/R2BFDQ5CCYAFKOF6F4E3GZWFWU/

Finding staff for their increased processing capacity next year might be easier said than done too as many other companies are discovering. Like I said, execution risk is very real and the risk of the very strong growing pains of 2021 flowing over into FY22 as well, is quite real in my opinion. Oh dear, ATM mark 2 thread?

[Beagle]

Happy to leave you to it now. I have expressed all my concerns now about lack of disclosure and other potential headwinds, some of which only really came more clearly into focus this weekend when I have had the time to properly reflect on all this in more detail. Time will tell how this all works out. Best wishes to holders and many thanks to you and stoploss for providing sufficient liquidity so I could exit my position.

[couta1]

Happy to leave you to it now. I have expressed all my concerns now about lack of disclosure and other potential headwinds, some of which only really came more clearly into focus this weekend when I have had the time to properly reflect on all this in more detail. Time will tell how this all works out. Best wishes to holders and many thanks to you and stoploss for providing sufficient liquidity so I could exit my position. Happy to oblige and hopefully there will be more sellers at 75c or less over the next few months as I need to hit my target number before this gem leaves the station for good, I may very well be buying some whilst riding the chairlift over the next month. Lol

[RTM]

Happy to leave you to it now. I have expressed all my concerns now about lack of disclosure and other potential headwinds, some of which only really came more clearly into focus this weekend when I have had the time to properly reflect on all this in more detail. Time will tell how this all works out. Best wishes to holders and many thanks to you and stoploss for providing sufficient liquidity so I could exit my position.

What a great idea ! But thanks for sharing your thoughts as you exit.

[percy]

It has been kindly pointed out to me ,by former poster MiniMoke,that note 1 at the bottom of page one of PAZ's interim result, seems to have been over looked by some.
1
Trading EBITDA is Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortisation, and any costs associated with
the $14 million capital raise in January, when CIBUS joined the share register. The accounting treatment of
these costs and the related investment is still being reviewed with the company’s auditors

[couta1]

Looks like a good support level has formed at 75c with good volume going through today, some obviously see a bargain at these prices and I'm sure they will be very happy in due course.

[Joshuatree]

It has been kindly pointed out to me ,by former poster MiniMoke,that note 1 at the bottom of page one of PAZ's interim result, seems to have been over looked by some.
1
Trading EBITDA is Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortisation, and any costs associated with
the $14 million capital raise in January, when CIBUS joined the share register. The accounting treatment of
these costs and the related investment is still being reviewed with the company’s auditors

Excellent,thanks for that guys.

[Entrep]

Alot of bids now around 75c lol, I expect most of them are ST. I put a bid in immediately when results came out but sadly didn't get filled.

[Beagle]

It has been kindly pointed out to me ,by former poster MiniMoke,that note 1 at the bottom of page one of PAZ's interim result, seems to have been over looked by some.
1
Trading EBITDA is Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortisation, and any costs associated with
the $14 million capital raise in January, when CIBUS joined the share register. The accounting treatment of
these costs and the related investment is still being reviewed with the company’s auditors

Commenting only because I had professional training as an auditor.
Very busy week last week, lots of good old fashioned bean counting...was a real shock to the system for a lazy semi retired old mutt like me lol. I think I absorbed that info on the first brief skim read through. Didn't really figure in my earnings, (or lack thereof), analysis anyway but might explain why they released trading EBITDA and not the net loss figure.
Shareholders will recall that as far back as the AGM the directors mentioned they were "in discussions" with the Auditors about the treatment of these new preference shares with the cash redemptive clauses and aspects of them meaning the Auditors wanted to treat them as debt. Obviously they've been in discussions for quite some time. It is very unusual for any company to release very limited financial information without getting clarity from the auditors regarding treatment and classification of material items first. The reasons for that, I'll leave for others to ponder. Very happy with my decision and again, many thanks for your input over the years with this one and many other shares. Best wishes to holders.

[percy]

The Cibus $14 mil injection is enabling PAZ to bring forward their expansion plans by a number of years..
Covid 19 issues are causing delays.

[Sideshow Bob]

Alot of bids now around 75c lol, I expect most of them are ST. I put a bid in immediately when results came out but sadly didn't get filled.

Looks like any loose hands shaken out. Hasn't traded over the last week.

[couta1]

Price seems to have stabilized around 80c for now, the latest lockdown won't be helping things but with a 3-5 yr holding horizon that shouldn't matter.

[percy]

Price seems to have stabilized around 80c for now, the latest lockdown won't be helping things but with a 3-5 yr holding horizon that shouldn't matter.

Buyer at 80 cents wants 100,000.More buyers of 127,410 down to 75 cents.
On the sell side just 960 shares for sale below 90 cents.
On my walk by Port Hills Road site,I noted all the yard work has been finished around the new factory,and is looking good .

[justakiwi]

Just got another email re "buy one get one free." Happy to take advantage of it again, but not sure whether doing this so frequently is good business practice or not. Opinions?

[percy]

Just got another email re "buy one get one free." Happy to take advantage of it again, but not sure whether doing this so frequently is good business practice or not. Opinions?

Well Briscoes send me emails ever week,or is it every day, with such titles as one day sale.Works for Briscoes so I would expect it works for PAZ.

[justakiwi]

No, I don't mean that, and I have no problem with sales/discounts. I was just quite surprised that they would do such a big discount so soon after the last one. Can they afford to be giving one product away free with every order, as frequently as they have been?


Well Briscoes send me emails ever week,or is it every day, with such titles as one day sale.Works for Briscoes so I would expect it works for PAZ.

[percy]

No, I don't mean that, and I have no problem with sales/discounts. I was just quite surprised that they would do such a big discount so soon after the last one. Can they afford to be giving one product away free with every order, as frequently as they have been?

Selling direct means they are most probably getting the same price as they would from a re seller.

[justakiwi]

That's a good point. Thanks!


Selling direct means they are most probably getting the same price as they would from a re seller.

[Beagle]

I ordered some more blackcurrant capsules today to help you good folks out even if the email they sent me with the title "FREE AiOra!" was disingenuous.

For a brief moment there I thought they were giving it away for free lol.

[percy]

I ordered some more blackcurrant capsules today to help you good folks out even if the email they sent me with the title "FREE AiOra!" was disingenuous.

For a brief moment there I thought they were giving it away for free lol.

Just keep those orders coming.
Must be working as you have not been banned for awhile now.!!...lol

[justakiwi]

Ha ha ha! :lol:



Must be working as you have not been banned for awhile now.!!...lol

[Beagle]

Just keep those orders coming.
Must be working as you have not been banned for awhile now.!!...lol

:lol: :lol: Touché

[RupertBear]

Just keep those orders coming.
Must be working as you have not been banned for awhile now.!!...lol

classic! :laugh::laugh:

[couta1]

Just keep those orders coming.
Must be working as you have not been banned for awhile now.!!...lol As someone who just enjoyed a 3 day ban i couldn't possibly comment. Lol

[percy]

As someone who just enjoyed a 3 day ban i couldn't possibly comment. Lol

Owning shares in PAZ is not enough to avoid banning.
You must be a regular user of their AiOra products...
They really work...lol.

[Sideshow Bob]

Like Percy said, they'll likely be getting similar to their wholesale price. When you actually look at it, there isn't alot of product in it.

Eg Bone & Joint - 60 capsules x 750mg per capsule = 45g of ingredient.

Potential to capture some good value, but in the meantime seems likely they are looking to build some sales momentum.

[davflaws]

OK - I'm in for a few as a long term play with the intention of jumping aboard (yet another) train as it pulls out of the station.
Since I have never bought unlisted before and have always worked through Direct Broking or its predecessors, How do I buy some shares in PAZ?

[couta1]

OK - I'm in for a few as a long term play with the intention of jumping aboard (yet another) train as it pulls out of the station.
Since I have never bought unlisted before and have always worked through Direct Broking or its predecessors, How do I buy some shares in PAZ? You need to get your chosen broker to manually put an order on for you, you cant do it yourself.

[justakiwi]

I signed up with Jarden Direct to buy mine. I think they are one in the same as Direct Broking, although they seem to have a different log in system/platform. By far the cheapest in terms of fees. You have to place orders by phone.


OK - I'm in for a few as a long term play with the intention of jumping aboard (yet another) train as it pulls out of the station.
Since I have never bought unlisted before and have always worked through Direct Broking or its predecessors, How do I buy some shares in PAZ?

[RupertBear]

OK - I'm in for a few as a long term play with the intention of jumping aboard (yet another) train as it pulls out of the station.
Since I have never bought unlisted before and have always worked through Direct Broking or its predecessors, How do I buy some shares in PAZ?

You just have to sign a form that you are happy to invest in the unlisted market and then ring them up and place your order if you already have an account with them. Easy peasy

[couta1]

Just a note to prospective punters, your bid can be in .1 of a cent increments with this stock so as the current top bid is 76c you can bid 76.1 c and go to the front of the line you don't have to bid 77c.

[justakiwi]

I did not know that. Thanks!


Just a note to prospective punters, your bid can be in .1 of a cent increments with this stock so as the current top bid is 76c you can bid 76.1 c and go to the front of the line you don't have to bid 77c.

[RupertBear]

Just a note to prospective punters, your bid can be in .1 of a cent increments with this stock so as the current top bid is 76c you can bid 76.1 c and go to the front of the line you don't have to bid 77c.

I didnt know this either, thanks Couta :)

[couta1]

Looks like someone's got FOMO on the bid side, is that you Beagle?

[Beagle]

Looks like someone's got FOMO on the bid side, is that you Beagle?

LOL, you know its not me. Very rare that this seasoned mutt chases his own tail...for such amusement you'll need to watch this. https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Beagle+chases+his+tail&docid=608040422903993731&mid=22C41B42EB13067B649A22C41B42EB13067B649A&view=detail&FORM=VIRE

I'm building a large position in something else but its secret squirrel stuff because I want all I can get and possibly eat, sorry, its too good to share :D

[stoploss]

LOL, you know its not me. Very rare that this seasoned mutt chases his own tail...for such amusement you'll need to watch this. https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Beagle+chases+his+tail&docid=608040422903993731&mid=22C41B42EB13067B649A22C41B42EB13067B649A&view=detail&FORM=VIRE

I'm building a large position in something else but its secret squirrel stuff because I want all I can get and possibly eat, sorry, its too good to share :D

SKT , Go for gold

[whatsup]

Are we off the bottom for now ?

[davflaws]

I sure hope so - now that I have climbed aboard!

[iceman]

I suspect we are in a bit of a holding pattern for quite some time until the new factories get completed and into full production. Patience may well be required with this one after the great rise over the last 2 years.

[Beagle]

50% off sale flyer from Chemist Warehouse arrib=ved in my inbox this morning so I thought I'd have a look...A search after Aiora wasn't showing as one of their top selling brands https://www.chemistwarehouse.co.nz/shop-online/81/vitamins-supplements revealed only one product currently stocked for Aiora
https://www.chemistwarehouse.co.nz/search?searchtext=aiora&searchmode=allwords
I was surprised they no longer appear to be stocking most of the Aiora range ?
Couldn't help noticing that by comparison Blackmores has 100 products and according to them was voted most trusted brand in the Readers Digest awards. Very long road ahead to achieve widespread brand recognition for some other brands though. Just letting you guys know, that's all.

[winner69]

50% off sale flyer from Chemist Warehouse arrib=ved in my inbox this morning so I thought I'd have a look...A search after Aiora wasn't showing as one of their top selling brands https://www.chemistwarehouse.co.nz/shop-online/81/vitamins-supplements revealed only one product currently stocked for Aiora
https://www.chemistwarehouse.co.nz/search?searchtext=aiora&searchmode=allwords
I was surprised they no longer appear to be stocking most of the Aiora range ?
Couldn't help noticing that by comparison Blackmores has 100 products and according to them was voted most trusted brand in the Readers Digest awards. Very long road ahead to achieve widespread brand recognition for some other brands though. Just letting you guys know, that's all.

Brand strength and/or margins a debate amongst business leaders thee days

One needs to keep investing in brands and the good CEO would say increase marketing spend without eroding margins

Strong brands can do but they say emerging / weak brands will struggle to maintain margins in this ever changing world

Maybe these PAZ products going the way of Blis

Just letting you guys know, that's all.

[stoploss]

50% off sale flyer from Chemist Warehouse arrib=ved in my inbox this morning so I thought I'd have a look...A search after Aiora wasn't showing as one of their top selling brands https://www.chemistwarehouse.co.nz/shop-online/81/vitamins-supplements revealed only one product currently stocked for Aiora
https://www.chemistwarehouse.co.nz/search?searchtext=aiora&searchmode=allwords
I was surprised they no longer appear to be stocking most of the Aiora range ?
Couldn't help noticing that by comparison Blackmores has 100 products and according to them was voted most trusted brand in the Readers Digest awards. Very long road ahead to achieve widespread brand recognition for some other brands though. Just letting you guys know, that's all.

Their opposition seems to stock more of the range .
Please have a reread of my post #1102 and remember your initial response which you then went on to edit .

https://www.bargainchemist.co.nz/search?q=aiora

[Beagle]

All I'm doing is providing valuable market feedback mate. Chemist Warehouse are BY FAR the biggest. In other market feedback for what its worth all the labels on the recent stock of vascular and vision product I bought direct from Aiora at half price were poorly affixed to the little plastic bottles, plenty of creases and it looked most unprofessional. Its not a good look.

I believe Iceman's post above is bang on the money. 5 times your money in less than 2 years has been an awesome run....and now the long waiting game begins. Beagles are not super patient when it comes to waiting for their next feed, they go hunting elsewhere. No point fighting your true nature is there :D

[percy]

Brand strength and/or margins a debate amongst business leaders thee days

One needs to keep investing in brands and the good CEO would say increase marketing spend without eroding margins

Strong brands can do but they say emerging / weak brands will struggle to maintain margins in this ever changing world

Maybe these PAZ products going the way of Blis

Just letting you guys know, that's all.

Pharmazen are repositioning their AiOra range to on line only.[via their AiOra on line store,which is currently being upgraded.]
New hair product not far away from market release.

[justakiwi]

Funny you should bring this up because I noticed it too. I also question why they seem to use the same size bottle for every product, regardless of the number of capsules they hold. Might be cheaper for them to just buy bulk quantities of the same bottle size, but when you open a bottle and see it is less than 1/3 full, it feels like unnecessary wastage. Better to use a small bottle and fill it to the top - gives the illusion that one is getting "value for money" - for potential new customers I mean.

Having said that, I definitely feel that the Gut & Brain one is helping - well my gut anyway - not so sure about my brain ;)


... for what its worth all the labels on the recent stock of vascular and vision product I bought direct from Aiora at half price were poorly affixed to the little plastic bottles, plenty of creases and it looked most unprofessional. Its not a good look.

[percy]

Funny you should bring this up because I noticed it too. I also question why they seem to use the same size bottle for every product, regardless of the number of capsules they hold. Might be cheaper for them to just buy bulk quantities of the same bottle size, but when you open a bottle and see it is less than 1/3 full, it feels like unnecessary wastage. Better to use a small bottle and fill it to the top - gives the illusion that one is getting "value for money" - for potential new customers I mean.

Having said that, I definitely feel that the Gut & Brain one is helping - well my gut anyway - not so sure about my brain ;)

Each bottle has the number of tablets clearly written on it.
Yes same size bottle saves a huge amount.
Note if you buy dish wash or a number of products no matter what size they all have the same size cap.
All helping to save the planet I am told.

ps.Drove past No.1 new Rolleston factory yesterday.Site works around the factory underway.So everything moving in the right direction,just slower than shareholserds would like,but that's life under Covid.

[justakiwi]

Yes, I figured it is probably cheaper to use the same size bottle. Not so sure about it being better for the planet though.

I guess I was looking at it more from the perspective of a new customer. The mind plays tricks on us humans - we can look at a packet or bottle of something, know exactly how many items are in the packet, but if it looks more empty than full, we can (falsely) believe we are being short changed.

You and I will keep buying it, but a first time customer might not go back for a second bottle - which we really want them to do.


Each bottle has the number of tablets clearly written on it.
Yes same size bottle saves a huge amount.
Note if you buy dish wash or a number of products no matter what size they all have the same size cap.
All helping to save the planet I am told.

ps.Drove past No.1 new Rolleston factory yesterday.Site works around the factory underway.So everything moving in the right direction,just slower than shareholserds would like,but that's life under Covid.

[percy]

This post has nothing to do with any thing.!!!
Years ago I worked with a guy who had owned a dairy.He noted bottles of tomato sauce were not all filled up to the same level.
He then took some out of the over filled bottles for his own use.
No one ever complained, as all his tomato sauce bottles were all filled up to the same level.................lol.

[justakiwi]

OMG ... lol!


This post has nothing to do with any thing.!!!
Years ago I worked with a guy who had owned a dairy.He noted bottles of tomato sauce were not all filled up to the same level.
He then took some out of the over filled bottles for his own use.
No one ever complained, as all his tomato sauce bottles were all filled up to the same level.................lol.

[Beagle]

Yes, I figured it is probably cheaper to use the same size bottle. Not so sure about it being better for the planet though.

I guess I was looking at it more from the perspective of a new customer. The mind plays tricks on us humans - we can look at a packet or bottle of something, know exactly how many items are in the packet, but if it looks more empty than full, we can (falsely) believe we are being short changed.

You and I will keep buying it, but a first time customer might not go back for a second bottle - which we really want them to do.

Its an interesting tactic to sell just 30 capsules of vascular and vision in a small bottle that holds 60 capsules of the bone and joint ones. I find it a little annoying as yes its wasteful packaging but it feels like its a bit disingenuous at the same time. 60 certainly fit in the same size bottle I can attest to that as I simply empty the contents of one bottle into the other when 2 arrive so as to save shelf space.

On the other hand seeing as these retail for $29.99 it makes it quite easy to work out that each capsule costs the not insignificant amount of $1. They seem really good to me but it hasn't gone unnoticed that this is a very different price per capsule than other supplements I take for example the Swisse wild fish oil capsule's which work out at just 3 cents each if you buy them on special in a 500 capsule container, or the Wagner high strength Garlic 10,000 capsules, (100 capsules) about 12 cents, Blackmores Executive B Tablets (125), about 30 cents per tablet.

I'm not sure why they end up costing $1 per capsule...that seems like quite a lot. Fortunately I am not short of a quid and think they're good enough to continue buying when on special but with that price point and the packaging I have serious reservations as to whether they will get decent market acceptance.

Regarding the Aiora Bone and Joint capsules - To be honest I am unsure if these are making any difference at all ? I will probably switch to a more recognized brand like Blackmores turmeric and chondroitin once my present supply is exhausted and see if they are any better.

[percy]

[QUOTE=Beagle;909383.

Regarding the Aiora Bone and Joint capsules - To be honest I am unsure if these are making any difference at all ? I will probably switch to a more recognized brand like Blackmores turmeric and chondroitin once my present supply is exhausted and see if they are any better.[/QUOTE]


I take 2 AiOra Bone + Joint tablets every morning for my worn out hip joint.Works a treat.Walking a lot better,and am pain free in bed.As a side benefit I note my hair and nails growing more stronger.
No.1 daughter uses them too for her nails and hair.In fact you can notice the difference straight away.
So will be interesting seeing if you notice any difference when you stop taking them.?

[iceman]

Regarding the Aiora Bone and Joint capsules - To be honest I am unsure if these are making any difference at all ? I will probably switch to a more recognized brand like Blackmores turmeric and chondroitin once my present supply is exhausted and see if they are any better.

That's a big difference from what you said just over a month ago Beagle (post 1093) when you said this:


"I loaded up. I especially find the bone and joint tablets helpful and the blackcurrant ones good for my eyes and blood pressure. 5 star rating from me."

What has changed, other than you having sold your shares ?

[Sideshow Bob]

Early days for AiOra, and sounds like a few little teething problems. Would be disappointing if The Chemist Warehouse have dropped them however.

Building a brand and gaining traction certainly isn't easy - especially when there is good margin in these products, and some entrenched competitors with products with similar functionality etc. Takes time and expertise to build, which expect much of it will be new to Paz. But word of mouth is huge on these products, so 2 for 1 sale and get people to give them a go is great.

The question on product quality/bottle size etc - are they doing it themselves or getting a 3rd party manufacturer to process for them, with PAZ supplying the raw material? May well be someone else doing the packing. There is a bit of cost between an encapsulator, bottling line etc etc.

Export market is no doubt the bigger prize, but difficult without travel and getting into a new market sector and level of customer.

As personal experience, I've been on the joint health for about a week. Possibly some minor benefit, but not sure at this stage.....

On another matter, any development on DOT? Can't find anything anywhere? Will be interested as a (very) crowded space, as many companies see the huge growth in the pet space in China. My understanding is that have to be a brand in NZ, rather than just something start up and make as a brand for China from NZ.

Was at a trade exhibition in China, think 2017. Was about 2.5 halls of pet food/treat manufacturers, and could definitely spot the Chinese companies in terms of branding and marketing. Then 2 years later, there was 8 halls, and really had to look twice or three times at the Chinese companies as the branding was superb. Plenty of NZ companies there, and think NZTE had a stand, and also plenty of Chinese companies producing OEM in NZ.

[Joshuatree]

This post has nothing to do with any thing.!!!
Years ago I worked with a guy who had owned a dairy.He noted bottles of tomato sauce were not all filled up to the same level.
He then took some out of the over filled bottles for his own use.
No one ever complained, as all his tomato sauce bottles were all filled up to the same level.................lol.

We'll.... I know a guy who would walk around a supermarket shaking all sorts of screened bottles trying to hear, feel one fuller than the others.....then walk out after half an hour not buying anything, true story ,beat that!:D

[Beagle]

That's a big difference from what you said just over a month ago Beagle (post 1093) when you said this:


"I loaded up. I especially find the bone and joint tablets helpful and the blackcurrant ones good for my eyes and blood pressure. 5 star rating from me."

What has changed, other than you having sold your shares ?

Probably the lengthy lockdown and being scared to get out there and walk much with all the other idiots who don't bother with 2 meter social distancing has added to the stiffness and discomfort somewhat. Now the numbers are starting to come down a wee bit and Spring is here and its a bit warmer I am trying to get back into my walking...crossing over the other side of the road when someone comes the other way...couldn't care less what they think.
I guess its true that supplements only do so much and regular exercise and a healthy diet are the real keys. See how we go...

[winner69]

That's a big difference from what you said just over a month ago Beagle (post 1093) when you said this:


"I loaded up. I especially find the bone and joint tablets helpful and the blackcurrant ones good for my eyes and blood pressure. 5 star rating from me."

What has changed, other than you having sold your shares ?

If you ‘own’ something it’s bound to be better / more satisfying than other stuff. That’s the way the mind works

Maybe beagle lost that ‘owning feeling’ and became more objective

[percy]

If you ‘own’ something it’s bound to be better / more satisfying than other stuff. That’s the way the mind works

Maybe beagle lost that ‘owning feeling’ and became more objective

Yeah right.?.!.

Others may think it is just Beagle being Beagle.?..
And so "no surprises there."...lol

[sampson]

Maybe the pills started to taste bitter when he sold and the share price didn't keep falling to justify his kneejerk reaction???

[Beagle]

I think a lot of people seriously underestimate the strength of the placebo effect https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-the-placebo-effect-2795466

[percy]

I think a lot of people seriously underestimate the strength of the placebo effect https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-the-placebo-effect-2795466

Do not try it...
During lock down you may be best to double your intake...lol

[Beagle]

Do not try it...
During lock down you may be best to double your intake...lol

Not making any changes during lockdown, not brave enough too lol. I take so many supplements its hard to say what's doing the most good. The main issue I have is with occasional shooting pain in my eyes, which has reduced in intensity and frequency since taking the the PAZ vascular and vision tablets and some mild arthritis pain in my left ankle, which is worse with lack of walking under lockdown.
The fish oil may be doing the most good with the arthritis https://www.verywellhealth.com/fish-oil-for-arthritis-5092351...I take these, https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=7ZuKUB6F&id=76B6CB4347147F198F41357C0CC4B876C0AEC40E&thid=OIP.7ZuKUB6Fd1mjxy4tM9cGYQHaHa&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fwww.amcal.com.au%2fwcsstore %2fExtendedSitesCatalogAssetStore%2fimages%2fprodu cts%2f9311770588270_LL_1.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.ed9 b8a501e857759a3c72e2d33d70661%3frik%3dDsSuwHa4xAx8 NQ%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=500&expw=500&q=swisse+wild+fish+oil&simid=608001699481862822&FORM=IRPRST&ck=3FE51465F127A2274FEC4463F8FA0547&selectedIndex=0&idpp=overlayview&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0, lots of them because they're really cheap and my Dad when he was alive reckoned fish oil really worked for him. Max dose is 10 a day...no point mucking about with one or two in my opinion.

[stoploss]

Not making any changes during lockdown, not brave enough too lol. I take so many supplements its hard to say what's doing the most good. The main issue I have is with occasional shooting pain in my eyes, which has reduced in intensity and frequency since taking the the PAZ vascular and vision tablets and some mild arthritis pain in my left ankle, which is worse with lack of walking under lockdown.
The fish oil may be doing the most good with the arthritis https://www.verywellhealth.com/fish-oil-for-arthritis-5092351...I take these, https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=7ZuKUB6F&id=76B6CB4347147F198F41357C0CC4B876C0AEC40E&thid=OIP.7ZuKUB6Fd1mjxy4tM9cGYQHaHa&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fwww.amcal.com.au%2fwcsstore %2fExtendedSitesCatalogAssetStore%2fimages%2fprodu cts%2f9311770588270_LL_1.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.ed9 b8a501e857759a3c72e2d33d70661%3frik%3dDsSuwHa4xAx8 NQ%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=500&expw=500&q=swisse+wild+fish+oil&simid=608001699481862822&FORM=IRPRST&ck=3FE51465F127A2274FEC4463F8FA0547&selectedIndex=0&idpp=overlayview&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0, lots of them because they're really cheap and my Dad when he was alive reckoned fish oil really worked for him. Max dose is 10 a day...no point mucking about with one or two in my opinion.
I do hope you have seen a Dr and an optometrist for your eyes. You only live once- might as well be able to see it well.

[percy]

I do hope you have seen a Dr and an optometrist for your eyes. You only live once- might as well be able to see it well.

Very sensible advice.

[peat]

I guess its true that supplements only do so much and regular exercise and a healthy diet are the real keys. See how we go...

And what is good exercise and what is healthy food. thats the next question?

Seeing as we're off track already heres my view

I think at our age we can actually get away with not doing too much cardio eg walking running treadmilling etc. I'm not saying its bad but can aggravate our aging bodies. Best to do controlled resistance training eg weights or pushups type exercise in my opinion to keep muscle integrity which shrinks badly as we age.

And food.

Low carbs , eg no chips or donuts , no potatoes or kumaras (sadly)so try to cut to zero, cut back on fruit ,
get rid of white sugar and use stevia certainly no standard fizzy drinks , and even fruit juices are bad. yeh seriously. that Fresh up almost as bad as the coke.

eat lots of meat and eggs and fish. veges are good of course but protein is the main goal.
if you eat like this you can eat as MUCH as you want and still lose weight.

And some supplements are useful. I take Berocca and Redseal Perform
Vit D
Vit C
Fish oil if you dont eat fish regularly. (omega 6 is the goal)
And make sure you get some iodine. It only lasts four weeks in table salt (if there - eg Himalayan Pink salt doesnt contain iodine)

These are my salient points. FWIW and sorry for off topic.

[justakiwi]

Carbs from natural sources are fine. It is processed carbs we need to avoid. So eat your potatoes and kumara! They are nutritionally sound - just be careful how you cook them.



Low carbs , eg no chips or donuts , no potatoes or kumaras (sadly)so try to cut to zero, cut back on fruit .

[Beagle]

I do hope you have seen a Dr and an optometrist for your eyes. You only live once- might as well be able to see it well.

Good point, thank you...very overdue for a visit to the optometrist....may need new glasses.

[peat]

Carbs from natural sources are fine. It is processed carbs we need to avoid. So eat your potatoes and kumara! They are nutritionally sound - just be careful how you cook them.

we disagree then
I dont want my suggestion watered down

The strategy I have outlined it is important that potatoes and kumaras are avoided.
If they are one can eat as much meat and veg and still lose weight! Note that of the five food groups the body actually can live perfectly well without carbs but all the other food groups are required. Carbs have been around the shortest period in human history - we lived for millions of years with almost none of them. That is what we are adapted for. They are the reason for heart attacks, obesity , high blood pressure, and insulin resistance.

I stated my opinion and it has paid huge benefits for me.

/end rant

[justakiwi]

With all due respect, when one makes a "suggestion" as you did, it is really just a personal opinion, based on your own personal experience.

Mine is different, but that doesn't automatically mean it is wrong. Both are valid.

But if you feel that strongly that you needed to "rant" about it, go for it ... :)

... but not here, because the thread is now getting off track.



I don't want my suggestion watered down

[peat]

With all due respect, when one makes a "suggestion" as you did, it is really just a personal opinion, based on your own personal experience.

Mine is different, but that doesn't automatically mean it is wrong. Both are valid.

But if you feel that strongly that you needed to "rant" about it, go for it ... :)

... but not here, because the thread is now getting off track.

yes of course its an opinion tho I can actually support it with science except I'm choosing not to be academic about it.
But you're suggestion was dangerous to the keto strategy.

Which of us has a weight problem?

[Joshuatree]

IMO rather then none ,less potatoes more kumara(less carbs and you can get Lotatoes now quite a lot less carb

[justakiwi]

Take it to a new thread and I will respond - once anyway. Not interested in having yet another ongoing "you're wrong and I'm right" debate.

With regards to your comment re my weight, I have always been way too free with sharing my personal info in this forum, but I had kind of hoped that would be respected. Not used as ammo to attempt to prove a point. My weight is not a "problem." I know exactly why I am overweight, and it is nobody's fault but mine. But it sure as hell isn't due to eating too many potatoes and kumara.



yes of course its an opinion tho I can actually support it with science except I'm choosing not to be academic about it.
But you're suggestion was dangerous to the keto strategy.

Which of us has a weight problem?

[Beagle]

Sorry for dragging this thread off course and thank you for the suggestion to get my eyes checked.

[davflaws]

This thread is a lot more pleasant and cordial than many others on Sharetrader. I'm fine with a little "of topic discussion providing we keep trteating each other well.

[DarkHorse]

yes of course its an opinion tho I can actually support it with science except I'm choosing not to be academic about it.
But you're suggestion was dangerous to the keto strategy.

Which of us has a weight problem?

As a fellow health conscious investor here's my 2 cents on nutrition before we move on:
- The incredible lifespans in Okinanawa proves that diets made up of mostly fruit and vegetables, with moderate to low protein intake (esp from meat) dramatically reduces virtually every major type of illness
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190116-a-high-carb-diet-may-explain-why-okinawans-live-so-long
See also: https://nutritionfacts.org/video/how-not-to-die-an-animated-summary/

- The keto diet, on the other hand, may help with weight loss, but is highly deficient in micro-nutrients
https://nutritionfacts.org/topics/keto-diet/

Personally, my eyesight's improved a lot since I started mixing my muesli with raw oats (soaked overnight), a range of nuts and seeds, some frozen blueberries and a sprinkling of bee pollen. Combined with a 15 minute jog around the park each morning(with some HIIT 2x a week) and a few dumbbell and core exercises, I'm feeling fitter than 20 years ago, and just managing to keep up with the high energy kids I had fairly late in life :)

[couta1]

Well I just ski hard and eat heaps of lots of things.

[Sideshow Bob]

Well I just ski hard and eat heaps of lots of things.

First ski of the season tomorrow - hopefully the Aiora joint health I'm taking holds me together.....!!! :scared:

[davflaws]

I'm also taking joint health (what a decrepit collection of old buggers we are!). My family won't let me back on SCUBA until my knee will bear my full weight without pain, so it's up and down in the pool. Forty boring lengths.

I don't know if the Joint Health helps, but a hundred years ago I researched the biology of mussels with a view to farming them. At that stage, the MacFarlane Mussel Co produced "Seatone" which a peer reviewed paper showed reduced inflammation in rats.

[iceman]

An article in the Herald today valuing pet food maker Ziwi at potentially over $ 1billion, with annual sales of $ 50 million wiorth of air dried pet food. Lots of Chinese interest.
Interesting valuation for us PAZ holders, even though not directly or completely related to us.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-pet-food-maker-ziwi-sold-offshore-in-deal-said-to-top-1-billion/LT6MPCTMWXCMTLHD7NIKEGRO4I/ Paywalled

There's obviously good money in providing premium dog food to hungry Beagle's...just look how far down that dog food bowl his snout is !...but you've really got to love your dog a LOT to feed them this stuff Animates has a 4kg bag of Ziwi Peak Daily Dog Cuisine Chicken selling for $193.49 :eek2: Oh my goodness that's over $48 a kilo...I really need to lift my game, I thought treating myself to rib eye steak at $35 a kilo was a special treat. Maybe I should try some of that dog food lol
.

Excerpt's He had no immediate comment on the price, but did confirm the deal is subject to Overseas Investment Office approval - implying it is somewhere north of the agency's $100 million threshold. My comments Nobody has confirmed the price The 1 Billion price tag appears to be nothing but speculation.

Sale rumours first emerged last October, when it was said Ziwi was on the block for around $400 million - Sounds more like it.

Ziwi, which sells primarily across Australia and New Zealand, but also has sales teams in the US and Asia, generates operating earnings of around $50m,
Emphasis added. Operating earnings of $50m not sales of $50m.

Comment. Even if it sold for $1 Billion that's a PE of 20 for a very well established brand (Started in 2002...19 years building that pet food brand is quite a long journey), with very strong growth plans detailed elsewhere in the article and the pet food sector is absolutely white hot at present.

Only a small part of PAZ's business is pet food and this is only just emerging and is yet to be proven to be profitable and there are many many years of brand building ahead.

Last time I checked PAZ was on a PE of 53 on FY20 earnings, who knows what it is on FY21 earnings, if any, seeing as they won't even tell shareholders what the net loss was for the first half and are hiding the actual bottom line result under the auspices that they are still in discussions with the auditors about the accounting treatment of the convertible preference shares issued along with the costs associated with that issue...but said discussions have been going on since the annual meeting. Time for them to finally come clean and say they're "in dispute" with the auditors ?

Iceman a good guy so I am sure it was just an inadvertent error to call it $50m sales instead of $50m operating profit.

The 12,000 square metre kitchen will be approximately the size of four rugby fields and be capable of doubling Ziwi's production over its current three Tauranga sites, the MD said. Production set to double from mid 2022.

[iceman]

Thanks Beagle. Yes it was my bad saying sales of $50m. Should read it over better before I post it.
But Business Desk reported on this sale last night and here is an excerpt :

"Ziwi shareholders have signed a sale and purchase agreement with private equity fund FountainVest Partners. “This positions Ziwi well for the future and provides strong additional support for the company’s ambitious growth plans,” the company said. The company declined to comment on the sale price but Bloomberg reported over the weekend that the deal with FountainVest Partners would value the company at about $1.5 billion."

[percy]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-pet-food-maker-ziwi-sold-offshore-in-deal-said-to-top-1-billion/LT6MPCTMWXCMTLHD7NIKEGRO4I/ Paywalled

There's obviously good money in providing premium dog food to hungry Beagle's...just look how far down that dog food bowl his snout is !...but you've really got to love your dog a LOT to feed them this stuff Animates has a 4kg bag of Ziwi Peak Daily Dog Cuisine Chicken selling for $193.49 :eek2: Oh my goodness that's over $48 a kilo...I really need to lift my game, I thought treating myself to rib eye steak at $35 a kilo was a special treat. Maybe I should try some of that dog food lol
.

Excerpt's He had no immediate comment on the price, but did confirm the deal is subject to Overseas Investment Office approval - implying it is somewhere north of the agency's $100 million threshold. My comments Nobody has confirmed the price The 1 Billion price tag appears to be nothing but speculation.

Sale rumours first emerged last October, when it was said Ziwi was on the block for around $400 million - Sounds more like it.

Ziwi, which sells primarily across Australia and New Zealand, but also has sales teams in the US and Asia, generates operating earnings of around $50m,
Emphasis added. Operating earnings of $50m not sales of $50m.

Comment. Even if it sold for $1 Billion that's a PE of 20 for a very well established brand (Started in 2002...19 years building that pet food brand is quite a long journey), with very strong growth plans detailed elsewhere in the article and the pet food sector is absolutely white hot at present.

Only a small part of PAZ's business is pet food and this is only just emerging and is yet to be proven to be profitable and there are many many years of brand building ahead.

Last time I checked PAZ was on a PE of 53 on FY20 earnings, who knows what it is on FY21 earnings, if any, seeing as they won't even tell shareholders what the net loss was for the first half and are hiding the actual bottom line result under the auspices that they are still in discussions with the auditors about the accounting treatment of the convertible preference shares issued along with the costs associated with that issue...but said discussions have been going on since the annual meeting. Time for them to finally come clean and say they're "in dispute" with the auditors ?

Iceman a good guy so I am sure it was just an inadvertent error to call it $50m sales instead of $50m operating profit.

The 12,000 square metre kitchen will be approximately the size of four rugby fields and be capable of doubling Ziwi's production over its current three Tauranga sites, the MD said. Production set to double from mid 2022.

Ziwi is an incredible success.
As you noted extremely expensive product.
Ziwi customers want the very best for their animals.
Provence.Where the ingredients came from,who manufactured the product and where.
Ziwi is produced in NZ using the very best NZ natural ingredients.[ANZO supply animal livers ,kidneys,hearts etc]
Mostly freeze dried etc.
All sounds very much what PAZ does.
People who know Mark Stewart's history will not be surprised by Ziwi's success.

[Beagle]

Many claim that a dog becomes part of the family and I endorse that feeling 100% but I doubt many parents would give their kids treats that cost $48 a kilo so this Ziwi stuff is obviously next level !! Maybe owners think their dog's are better and more valuable than their kids...I couldn't agree more :lol:

P.S. I think its really sad that Ziwi is going to be sold overseas. Think about it, who wouldn't be keen to buy into a pet food business which a huge and growing brand name on a historical PE of 20 when they're about to double production from a massive new facility in less than 12 months time !
I'd certainly put my hand up for a meaningful stake on those metrics and with that sort of growth imminent !

PAZ used to be on a PE of 20 and those that bought on that metric certainly have done extremely well.

[Sideshow Bob]

Many claim that a dog becomes part of the family and I endorse that feeling 100% but I doubt many parents would give their kids treats that cost $48 a kilo so this Ziwi stuff is obviously next level !! Maybe owners think their dog's are better and more valuable than their kids...I couldn't agree more :lol:

P.S. I think its really sad that Ziwi is going to be sold overseas. Think about it, who wouldn't be keen to buy into a pet food business which a huge and growing brand name on a historical PE of 20 when they're about to double production from a massive new facility in less than 12 months time !
I'd certainly put my hand up for a meaningful stake on those metrics and with that sort of growth imminent !

PAZ used to be on a PE of 20 and those that bought on that metric certainly have done extremely well.

From what I heard from people within the industry and the sale price, likely on a PE of 30.

Clearly there are large demographics in various markets with the income and motivation to spend heavy on their pets. I am beyond asking what my wife spends on our pooch with the skin sensitive diet she is on. Big bag rolls up on the courier every 5 weeks.....

They haven't bought Ziwi just to do the status quo (buyers are private equity after all), and have the new factory coming online in Napier somethime soon. Have to remember that Ziwi been at it for a long time (like most overnight successes), had their ups and downs and expect have probably tipped a bit of money into it over the years.

There is alot of petfood companies that have been sold off to overseas interests - but Ziwi easily the biggest. Like K9 Natural (KKR) and Petfoods NZ, plus a few smaller ones. With K9 and Ziwi, they are buying the brands, and what is under this, along with the cashflow - wouldn't think a whole lot of tangible assets.

The positive aspect is that still looking to manufacture in NZ, and grow that business - which will take up more NZ raw material. Material that is currently exported to other markets, and loses that NZ identity, through the likes of Purina, Mars, Iams etc. Much of the traditional long-standing brands marketed in NZ have been overseas owned anyway, through Mars and Heinz.

PAZ is in another space, with treats. Would be difficult to do a large scale freeze-dried food, and treats a good place to start. I think has to be a brand in NZ in its own right, and not just a brand produced in NZ for China.

[Beagle]

Even on a PE of 30 with production set to double in the very near future and all the economies of scale of that production being from one site...seems very attractive to me. Soon to be a PE of less than 15 by the sounds of things. Really wish they had floated that on the NZX.

Honestly I don't think much of the packaging of OCA's new treats range. Needs to be much more bright and colorful and have pictures of super colorful and cute dog(s) on there. Couple of tri coloured Beagle's would be a good idea. Beagle's are America's most popular dog. Choose the right breed for your marketing and you get an instant leg up with the attractiveness of the product in customers eyes but it MUST be bright colors with super attractive and cute pets on the packaging ! If your target market is China find out what the most popular breed is there and change your packaging accordingly. (Some great marketing advice provided free of charge to PAZ directors).

[Sideshow Bob]

Honestly I don't think much of the packaging of OCA's new treats range.

Yeah great idea Beagle, put all the residents to work making treats for their favourite poochie!! Another income stream for OCA! :t_up:

On a serious note, I've only seen what is here, but would definitely concur. Products | Department of Treats (do-treats.com) (https://www.do-treats.com/products)

[percy]

Yeah great idea Beagle, put all the residents to work making treats for their favourite poochie!! Another income stream for OCA! :t_up:

On a serious note, I've only seen what is here, but would definitely concur. Products | Department of Treats (do-treats.com) (https://www.do-treats.com/products)

Department of Treats products look super exciting.

[Beagle]

12984

Department of Treats - Give your beautiful dog that really contented feeling

Print that on the treat package along with some other stuff about the ingredient's and you're on to a winner.

PAZ directors please contact me to arrange payment of my 5% royalty :D

[Joshuatree]

How's your health/weight? trying out any special diet regimes,what's the latest ,besides keto etc,anything working well??Hope you're not overdoing the treats but that's hard in lockdown I personally found.

[Beagle]

Lockdown for Aucklanders has been really, really hard. Not much to do and all the time in the world to medicate the stress with food. I finally plucked up the courage to get on the bathroom scales last week, (after feeling especially lethargic for days). It was bad, really bad.

Only thing I know is to try and get regular exercise and eat healthy. Easier said than done that's for sure !

[percy]

Lockdown for Aucklanders has been really, really hard. Not much to do and all the time in the world to medicate the stress with food. I finally plucked up the courage to get on the bathroom scales last week, (after feeling especially lethargic for days). It was bad, really bad.

Only thing I know is to try and get regular exercise and eat healthy. Easier said than done that's for sure !

One of my book suppliers used to breed dogs.
Her advice for a healthy animal,less tucka,more exercise.

[couta1]

Lockdown for Aucklanders has been really, really hard. Not much to do and all the time in the world to medicate the stress with food. I finally plucked up the courage to get on the bathroom scales last week, (after feeling especially lethargic for days). It was bad, really bad.

Only thing I know is to try and get regular exercise and eat healthy. Easier said than done that's for sure ! Regular exercise needs to become a habit to be successful, create a habit, keep a habit and enjoy the rewards but not easy for everyone(Actually not easy for anyone as you age) I've been pushing the body since I was 15 with shearing/running/fast walking and skiing so the habit is well and truly entrenched, eat a mainly healthy diet but also quite a few goodies. Supplements taken, Garlic/Vit C/Vit E and Fish oil but no PAZ products to date. Lol

[whatsup]

Regular exercise needs to become a habit to be successful, create a habit, keep a habit and enjoy the rewards but not easy for everyone(Actually not easy for anyone as you age) I've been pushing the body since I was 15 with shearing/running/fast walking and skiing so the habit is well and truly entrenched, eat a mainly healthy diet but also quite a few goodies. Supplements taken, Garlic/Vit C/Vit E and Fish oil but no PAZ products to date. Lol

Same applies to the owner or owners !!

[percy]

Yeah great idea Beagle, put all the residents to work making treats for their favourite poochie!! Another income stream for OCA! :t_up:

On a serious note, I've only seen what is here, but would definitely concur. Products | Department of Treats (do-treats.com) (https://www.do-treats.com/products)

After reading up about Department of Treats and getting very excited, I am very surprised no astute Sharetrader has not bought any PAZ shares this morning,and taken advantage of the window of opportunity available..
Perhaps everyone is like me,already over weighted .lol.

[Beagle]

Good examples of attractive packaging - https://petdirect.co.nz/c/dog/dog-treats/nz-made-treats/

More good packaging examples here https://petdirect.co.nz/c/dog/food/

and here...notice how bright and colorful the packaging of Ziwi products are...no wonder they're doing well https://petdirect.co.nz/c/dog/dog-food/dog-freeze-dried-dehydrated-food/

I think its clear PAZ have a lot of work to do with the caliber of their packaging.

[Sideshow Bob]

Good examples of attractive packaging - https://petdirect.co.nz/c/dog/dog-treats/nz-made-treats/

More good packaging examples here https://petdirect.co.nz/c/dog/food/

and here...notice how bright and colorful the packaging of Ziwi products are...no wonder they're doing well https://petdirect.co.nz/c/dog/dog-food/dog-freeze-dried-dehydrated-food/

I think its clear PAZ have a lot of work to do with the caliber of their packaging.

I’m not in love with the DOT packaging from the website, and agree re colour and standing out. However might be developed with colouring and design for the Chinese market…??

All of those brands as per link are exporting to China in their English packaging, with an additional Mandarin label to cover mandatory Chinese requirements.

Chinese consumers want to see it as a western/imported product, and not something specifically made for/marketed at the Chinese market.

[Swala]

Good share volumes going through yesterday - very encouraging!

[couta1]

Good share volumes going through yesterday - very encouraging! At 75c though so not really encouraging, next bid off the line at 65c, punters getting impatient as its a long time between drinks here, I expect the company are in grind it out mode currently. Disc-I did buy a portion of those that sold at 75c. Lol

[couta1]

Watching this keen seller of just over 87k shares, they started out at 76c a while ago and are now at 71c. Lol

[Mr Slothbear]

You all might be interested in this
https://www.snowballeffect.co.nz/offers/jeuneora-s560q/#overview

capital raise for a company in very similar catagory to PAZ but targeting the retail rather than manufacturing side of things. Growing very quickly and targeting a younger demographic.

valuation is 1.71x revnue

based in christchurch just like PAZ

i’m considering buying in

[Beagle]

You all might be interested in this
https://www.snowballeffect.co.nz/offers/jeuneora-s560q/#overview

capital raise for a company in very similar catagory to PAZ but targeting the retail rather than manufacturing side of things. Growing very quickly and targeting a younger demographic.

valuation is 1.71x revnue

based in christchurch just like PAZ

i’m considering buying in
A couple of thoughts.
Note the existence of A and B shares, with B shares being non voting. While this is common in some overseas markets its far less common here and something I think is an egregious breech of the rights of being a shareholder and as a matter of principle I wouldn't invest a single dollar no matter how compelling, or speculative the metrics were. I see they're forecast to make a loss this year and then magically grow absolutely heaps by FY23. Is it too early for a Tui ? Good luck with it. I hope Paul Homes daughter Millie as the key influencer has put her methamphetamine habit well and truly behind her and spreading her Dad's money around amongst a well diversified portfolio of investments where she gets equal voting rights... Looks highly speculative to me.

FWIW by way of comparison PAZ's market cap is 8.4 times revenue compared to 1.7 times.

[percy]

A couple of thoughts.
Note the existence of A and B shares, with B shares being non voting. While this is common in some overseas markets its far less common here and something I think is an egregious breech of the rights of being a shareholder and as a matter of principle I wouldn't invest a single dollar no matter how compelling, or speculative the metrics were. I see they're forecast to make a loss this year and then magically grow absolutely heaps by FY23. Is it too early for a Tui ? Good luck with it. I hope Paul Homes daughter Millie as the key influencer has put her methamphetamine habit well and truly behind her and spreading her Dad's money around amongst a well diversified portfolio of investments where she gets equal voting rights... Looks highly speculative to me.

FWIW by way of comparison PAZ's market cap is 8.4 times revenue compared to 1.7 times.

Should you buy any of these shares how would you sell them.?

[Mr Slothbear]

Should you buy any of these shares how would you sell them.?


typically getting bought by a bigger player looking to buy growth engine bolt ons as many are fairly stagnant but have cash, it would look something like this

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/123022010/payday-for-ethique-investors-after-deal-signed-with-international-backers

the main thing that got my attention was the serious demand and brand loyalty I saw from their customers on their instagram so they’re definitely doing something right but have decided to stay clear as I do think its a red flag have millie holmes closely associated with them.

[percy]

typically getting bought by a bigger player looking to buy growth engine bolt ons as many are fairly stagnant but have cash, it would look something like this

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/123022010/payday-for-ethique-investors-after-deal-signed-with-international-backers

the main thing that got my attention was the serious demand and brand loyalty I saw from their customers on their instagram so they’re definitely doing something right but have decided to stay clear as I do think its a red flag have millie holmes closely associated with them.

Really pleasing seeing these people having a go.Very well set out document.
All like the Body Shop,but online.
Hope it is not like me not taking a friend's advice to buy A2 milk shares at 17 cents.
To make it worse he keeps reminding me..lol.

[Mr Slothbear]

Really pleasing seeing these people having a go.Very well set out document.
All like the Body Shop,but online.
Hope it is not like me not taking a friend's advice to buy A2 milk shares at 17 cents.
To make it worse he keeps reminding me..lol.


oh dear that hits a bit close to home

i had a sit down with one of then directors of A2 in 2015, he couldn’t stop raving about it, telling me all about its potential, silly me only bought in 3 years later when the shareprice was about 17x what it was when he urged me to buy.

we live and learn or at least I hope so !

luckily he never reminds me

[nizzy]

Really pleasing seeing these people having a go.Very well set out document.
All like the Body Shop,but online.
Hope it is not like me not taking a friend's advice to buy A2 milk shares at 17 cents.
To make it worse he keeps reminding me..lol. Ha, had a mate holding 700k ATM shares, who kept telling me to get on board at 0.10 cents. Eventually did get on board at 7 bucks ...

[couta1]

oh dear that hits a bit close to home

i had a sit down with one of then directors of A2 in 2015, he couldn’t stop raving about it, telling me all about its potential, silly me only bought in 3 years later when the shareprice was about 17x what it was when he urged me to buy.

we live and learn or at least I hope so !

luckily he never reminds me Sure if you got in early you could have made a lot but in the main A2 has been a wealth destruction company, its had 11 billion wiped off its market cap and anyone buying and holding since 2017 is in the red, it may or may not get back to its glory days. PAZ on the other hand is yet to have its glory days and thats why I hold a good number of them.

[Beagle]

Guesswork really but nonetheless I have had a go...

2023 full year, (hopefully unless it s a little later with more delays caused by Covid) will be their year when at least in theory everything is imported, installed, built and up and running.
Craig's plan is to hopefully double 2020 sales by 2023. If this plan is not delayed and assuming everything works out then that might lead to a doubling of 2020 profit by 2023 which on the expanded number of shares on issue works out to be almost exactly 3 cents per share.

One idea to value the company which, (in the absence of any real data to the contrary), I have used to value PAZ shares for a possible reentry is to choose an appropriate PE multiple for those possible 3 cps earnings in 2023 and come up with a theoretical valuation in April 2024 when the 2023 result is announced and then discount that back to its value today using a discount rate that's appropriate given there are no dividends, the biotech sector is high risk and there is very limited liquidity.

I won't post the answer that gave me today because it would be insensitive to shareholders and its my own methodology in terms of the PE, the discount rate and the reasons for those numbers. Suffice to say its materially south of 71 cents otherwise I'd be buying the shares on offer at that price or bidding somewhat lower. Provided people have heaps of patience (not my strong suit), they should do okay but biotech companies are notoriously high risk and we are in unchartered waters with this pandemic and its duration. Just a few random thoughts I had on this one today. My ponderings are little more than somewhat educated guesswork, time will tell.

P.S. You can get almost any answer you like using my methodology depending on what numbers you choose. For example if you think the correct PE of PAZ in early 2024 when they have announced 3 cps in earnings is 60 then its worth $1.80 in March 2024 and if you use a discount rate of 10% for this being 2 1/2 years hence from here you get $1.80 x .9 x.9 x.95 = $1.24 now.

On the other hand if you think Covid will delay things 6 months and a fair period to make 3 cps is three years hence from now and a fair PE is 27 and your discount rate for the risks mentioned is 17% per annum then the fair value becomes 27 x 3 = 81 cents x 0.83 x 0.83 x 0.83 = 46.3 cents now.

Conclusion - People have to come up with their own numbers and reasons for them. If anyone else has a theory on how to value this company with such incredibly scant information I am all ears like this...yes I know that's a Bassett not a Beagle :)

13113

[winner69]

Beagle - I hope you used an appropriate PE for this type of stock - one that reflects what punters might be happy with - maybe 50 plus?

Like in US the Russell 2000 Growth Index has a forward looking PE of 50

I found this chart interesting as well ...currently 60% of the stocks in that index don't even make a profit

[Beagle]

Huge speculative bubble in the US with many stocks not trading on fundamental's. I won't join in the insanity or the wild speculation with cryptocurrency either, (not that these two are the same), I just mention to illustrate the point that just because a practice is widespread at present doesn't make it right or mean it fits with my investment methodology.
I am happy to pay for growth at a fair price and that underscores my thinking right across the board with all investments.

People have to come up with their own way of doing things.

I'll stick to old fashioned ways of doing things that have worked for me, (seem to be doing okay and besides that its too hard to teach an old dog new tricks). For what its worth I was buying 2 years ago at 20 cents when the forward PE was in the mid 20's when it was growing faster than it is on average forecast to between now and 2023. 20 cents was a fantastic bargain I have to say but I also think 95 cents recently was a clear sell. Maybe the answer now is somewhere very close to the middle of those two figures ;)

[winner69]

Huge speculative bubble in the US with many stocks not trading on fundamental's. I won't join in the insanity or the wild speculation with cryptocurrency either, (not that these two are the same), I just mention to illustrate the point that just because a practice is widespread at present doesn't make it right or mean it fits with my investment methodology.
I am happy to pay for growth at a fair price and that underscores my thinking right across the board with all investments.

People have to come up with their own way of doing things. For what its worth I was buying 2 years ago at 20 cents when the forward PE was in the mid 20's when it was growing faster than it is on average between now and 2023. 20 cents was a fantastic bargain I have to say but I also think 95 cents was a sell. Maybe the answer now is somewhere very close to the middle of those two figures ;)

I’ll do the snoopy thing

(20 + 95) / 2 gives about 57

So answer now 57 cents

Better not mention that to the guys down the bowling club ….think they bought above that

[couta1]

Right space/Right place/Right time barring present Covid disruptions with plenty of demand, patience required but potential is huge and you can't value that by using a traditional PE valuation.Couta's gutometer 3 yr forward valuation is $3, take it or leave it.:D

[whatsup]

Right space/Right place/Right time barring present Covid disruptions with plenty of demand, patience required but potential is huge and you can't value that by using a traditional PE valuation.Couta's gutometer 3 yr forward valuation is $3, take it or leave it.:D

coutal, fingers crossed on the $3-00, if they hit that Ill buy you a dozen bolli champers, let me know where i can deliver it !

[davflaws]

Couta's gutometer 3 yr forward valuation is $3, take it or leave it.:D

I'll take it!

[Sideshow Bob]

I think Pharmazen is one to throw in the bottom drawer for a while. Had a good run on shareprice over an extended period, well underway with their plant expansion - but now has to deliver and put runs on the board.

Challenge is to double turnover, and like Beagle says, presumably double profit, then accordingly to the USX site, 1.8c eps now to 3.6c eps - 39.5 PE now, to potential 19.7 P/E at todays price. This is with increasing electricty pricing (with many rolling off old electricity contracts and I've heard some horror stories), pressure on labour supply and pricing, and also shipping challenges.

Their new initiatives such as DOT and Aiora are great, but B2C marketing is alot different to B2B. Takes time, effort, skill, patience and money - but the payoff is in margin - especially on the capsule business. I envisage this will be cream, if they work out.

I look as a comparison to the only other company I hold on the USX - SFF. Not too dissimilar in market cap, but PE of 3.3 and potentially another very solid result coming.

[Beagle]

Good post but please note that there are more shares on issue after the placement earlier this year so a doubling in revenue and net profit by 2023, (if achievable), will lead to eps growing to almost exactly 3.0 cents per share. Choose your PE or for those that think earnings don't matter make up whatever numbers you like...

[iceman]

Good post but please note that there are more shares on issue after the placement earlier this year so a doubling in revenue and net profit by 2023, (if achievable), will lead to eps growing to almost exactly 3.0 cents per share. Choose your PE or for those that think earnings don't matter make up whatever numbers you like...

I agree with Sideshow Bob. These are good for the bottom drawer for the next 3-5 years. I am very content with my large holding. As you say Beagle, trying to guess where this will be in 2-4 years time is pretty much a "make up your own numbers" exercise. A bit like it was when I was buying ATM at 18-30c and we had a great discussion about it back then. It was a matter of buying the story, a bit like I feel with PAZ.

[Sideshow Bob]

Good post but please note that there are more shares on issue after the placement earlier this year so a doubling in revenue and net profit by 2023, (if achievable), will lead to eps growing to almost exactly 3.0 cents per share. Choose your PE or for those that think earnings don't matter make up whatever numbers you like...

Good point re further issue of shares!! I'd just taken the EPS from the USX issuer profile.

Probably would at least have increased the NTA per share. ;)

[Sideshow Bob]

Photos courtesy of Percy. :)

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[percy]

Photos courtesy of Percy. :)

131171311813119

Thanks for posting Sideshow Bob.
My friend Murray took them today.

Shares on issue.Currently 254,493,482.
At 31st Dec 2020............218,769,344.

There were a skeleton staff working at Port Hills Road yesterday.
I would guess PAZ are trying to catch up on production.

[Mr Slothbear]

Good post but please note that there are more shares on issue after the placement earlier this year so a doubling in revenue and net profit by 2023, (if achievable), will lead to eps growing to almost exactly 3.0 cents per share. Choose your PE or for those that think earnings don't matter make up whatever numbers you like...


i see what you’re saying but management have explained before as revenue increases they get increasing economies of scale, i.e management does not need to increase much, nor office or admin, usx fees etc.. thus a doubling of revemue should see an increase well over double for ebitda and npat so I would suggest it’ll be higher than 3cps.

there is also the high chance these brand new larger facilities will also lead to cost savings via operational efficiencies, lower electricity costs and so on. Not to mention increased negotiating power on input costs when you’re a much larger buyer

:)

[whatsup]

i see what you’re saying but management have explained before as revenue increases they get increasing economies of scale, i.e management does not need to increase much, nor office or admin, usx fees etc.. thus a doubling of revemue should see an increase well over double for ebitda and npat so I would suggest it’ll be higher than 3cps.

there is also the high chance these brand new larger facilities will also lead to cost savings via operational efficiencies, lower electricity costs and so on. Not to mention increased negotiating power on input costs when you’re a much larger buyer

:)

not to mention that " IF " all things go to plan it should set the company up for greater turnover for years to come !!

[Beagle]

i see what you’re saying but management have explained before as revenue increases they get increasing economies of scale, i.e management does not need to increase much, nor office or admin, usx fees etc.. thus a doubling of revemue should see an increase well over double for ebitda and npat so I would suggest it’ll be higher than 3cps.

there is also the high chance these brand new larger facilities will also lead to cost savings via operational efficiencies, lower electricity costs and so on. Not to mention increased negotiating power on input costs when you’re a much larger buyer

:)

Yeap. Believe me I've mulled all that over very carefully already, looked at the very few tea leaves of information forthcoming from every angle, (really the amount of information that's required to be disclosed with companies interim reporting under the requirements of the unlisted platform is a bloody disgrace) and made my decision in respect of my particular circumstances. I really want income primarily and portfolio growth is now somewhat a secondary objective.

Others will have different objectives with their investments, I certainly understand that !

Nice photo's guys, that'll buck the troops up !

Predicting the future a long way out is fraught with a high degree of getting it wrong but as I see it the chances of this enduring worldwide pandemic derailing their growth plans is quite high in my opinion...probably best I leave it there.

[percy]

not to mention that " IF " all things go to plan it should set the company up for greater turnover for years to come !!

And room to expand their Rolleston factories.

[percy]

Yeap. Believe me I've mulled all that over very carefully already, looked at the very few tea leaves of information forthcoming from every angle, (really the amount of information that's required to be disclosed with companies interim reporting under the requirements of the unlisted platform is a bloody disgrace) and made my decision in respect of my particular circumstances. I really want income primarily and portfolio growth is now somewhat a secondary objective.

Others will have different objectives with their investments, I certainly understand that !

Nice photo's guys, that'll buck the troops up !

Predicting the future a long way out is fraught with a high degree of getting it wrong but as I see it the chances of this enduring worldwide pandemic derailing their growth plans is quite high in my opinion...probably best I leave it there.

We all must follow our own financial objectives.I started buying PAZ shares in 2009.As I got to better know the company and the people running it, I brought more.
Before I retired I too thought my portfolio ,when I retired would be just NZ income stocks.
However once you have the income you require,you can look further afield.
My portfolio is now NZ income,and NZ growth stocks.Australian income and growth stocks, together with a couple of resource stocks. I also hold one UK income/growth stock.
PAZ are doing what they said they would do,just the pandemic is delaying progress,but not stopping it.
The upside of the pandemic is people are being more careful about their health.They want to know where their food/ingredients is/are grown,how it was grown and who and where it was processed.It is called provenance.This means PAZ are in the right sector at the right time.Ziwi Peak has proven people will pay big money if they know the provenance/traceability of their pet food.PAZ are able to produce up to pharmaceutical requirements.GMP {Good Manufacturing Practice] certification.
The extra shares were issued so PAZ had the capital to build new factories,which they are doing.New factory at Port Hills Road is finished and I expect is up and running.The first of two Rollestion factories is well under way.

[RupertBear]

We all must follow our own financial objectives.I started buying PAZ shares in 2009.As I got to better know the company and the people running it, I brought more.
Before I retired I too thought my portfolio ,when I retired would be just NZ income stocks.
However once you have the income you require,you can look further afield.
My portfolio is now NZ income,and NZ growth stocks.Australian income and growth stocks, together with a couple of resource stocks. I also hold one UK income/growth stock.
PAZ are doing what they said they would do,just the pandemic is delaying progress,but not stopping it.
The upside of the pandemic is people are being more careful about their health.They want to know where their food/ingredients is/are grown,how it was grown and who and where it was processed.It is called provenance.This means PAZ are in the right sector at the right time.Ziwi Peak has proven people will pay big money if they know the provenance/traceability of their pet food.PAZ are able to produce up to pharmaceutical requirements.GMP {Good Manufacturing Practice] certification.
The extra shares were issued so PAZ had the capital to build new factories,which they are doing.New factory at Port Hills Road is finished and I expect is up and running.The first of two Rollestion factories is well under way.

Excellent post thanks Percy. Sounds like you are very very very well positioned :)

[percy]

Excellent post thanks Percy. Sounds like you are very very very well positioned :)

Just between you and me RupertBear, I think ALL patient Paz shareholders are "well positioned".....lol.

[Sideshow Bob]

Just between you and me RupertBear, I think ALL patient Paz shareholders are "well positioned".....lol.

I think Percy is just a tad more "well positioned" than most!! :t_up:

[Sideshow Bob]

All quiet on the PAZ front. None traded for over 2 weeks....!!

[couta1]

All quiet on the PAZ front. None traded for over 2 weeks....!! Just keep watching the paint dry for another year until any real traction occurs.

[Sideshow Bob]

Someone wanted some money for Christmas this morning......

[Southern Lad]

Someone wanted some money for Christmas this morning......

The trade has disappeared - must have been an error.

[Sideshow Bob]

The trade has disappeared - must have been an error.

Indeed - back showing as the only bid.

50,000 at $0.60

[iceman]

Indeed - back showing as the only bid.

50,000 at $0.60

Looks like a seller put up 50,000 @ 70c and broker mistakenly entered it @ 60c and then had to reverse the trade. I've had something similar happen to me on the USX.

[percy]

Well we have run out of buyers.?

[RupertBear]

1334713348

Photos from Percy, with thanks to Minimoke for sharing them

[Beagle]

Well we have run out of buyers.?

Its hard to put a value on a company in a complete vacuum of information. Directors and the new private equity investor will know how they're trading year to date, 11 months to November and accordingly a very good idea on what the annual result will be for 2021 but shareholders are not even provided with proper interim financial statements. The lack of disclosure is disgraceful.

I have a revised value using my own methodology and appropriate discounting for lack of liquidity, lack of financial disclosure, risks, extended Covid influence, Aiora being withdrawn from Chemist Warehouse to name just some factors but its so far south of the recent share price I won't share it on here or bid at that price.

PAZ used to be on a PE of 20 and those that bought on that metric certainly have done extremely well. 20 x eps of 3 cps in 3 years time, (if achievable with Covid headwinds) = 60 cents 3 years hence. Discount that back to today's dollars using an appropriate discount rate for the risk and lack of liquidity. My updated 2 cents worth.