Trade Me (TME)

[whatsup]

Fairfax considering selling Trade Me as it needs the cash, Fairfax shares have dropped from $7.00 in 2007 to $1.32 and rumour is that F needs to boost its proformance.

[elZorro]

Yes, Whatsup, that's a fast way of getting some capital together. I think we all sat up when Sam Morgan and others did the deal with Fairfax, and thought "Why aren't we that smart?". But there was only room for one big player in the market, and they have it. Turns out Sam and Co set the business up with the idea of selling it off, they had that figured out early on. And Fairfax or someone like them had to buy, they were simply following the money. In this case, advertising revenue, and a cut on national sales. A bit like owning VISA.

Anyway, such a cleverly set up business, doing many small business-people and the public a power of good, I'd buy in anytime.

[fungus pudding]

Yes, Whatsup, that's a fast way of getting some capital together. I think we all sat up when Sam Morgan and others did the deal with Fairfax, and thought "Why aren't we that smart?". But there was only room for one big player in the market, and they have it. Turns out Sam and Co set the business up with the idea of selling it off, they had that figured out early on. And Fairfax or someone like them had to buy, they were simply following the money. In this case, advertising revenue, and a cut on national sales. A bit like owning VISA.

Anyway, such a cleverly set up business, doing many small business-people and the public a power of good, I'd buy in anytime.

Anytime? Not wanna know the deal first? They'll be counting on a lot of interest, so won't be needing to make it too generous. ;)

[macduffy]

Yes, sounds promising but I'd need to look hard at it first, too.

The dot com scene moves so quickly that first mover advantage can't be counted on to last as long as it once did. EBay, Google etc aren't quite as gold-plated as they once were as the "next big thing" arrives.

[Xerof]

Agree with Fungus - are you really dumb enough to say you'd be in when details haven't even been set on the table? One things for sure, they'll milk it for all they can get

Perhaps they'll auction it on Trade Me :eek2::eek2:

[peat]

:p they could take over NZX

[percy]

I would have thought Faifax would be better off selling their newspapers and keeping trade me.

[winner69]

I would have thought Faifax would be better off selling their newspapers and keeping trade me.

Morgan Stanley say at least $1.5 billion
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/51516/morgan-stanley-analysts-say-trade-me-now-worth-twice-much-what-fairfax-paid-it-2006

But then things have changed over the last few months ... Trade Me into new things .... and the world has gone mad on values

Packaged up as a NZ icon and plenty of og glossy brochures with pretty dolly birds plastered all over it and preferental allocation to Trade Me members (million plus? I reckon you would get $2 billion at least

Percy - you may be right about your comment - the article suggests that Trade Me is about half of Fairfax value.

[winner69]

Jeez if Firfax hock off Trade Me and try to start charging to view content (pay wall) they be dead in the water

[percy]

Jeez if Firfax hock off Trade Me and try to start charging to view content (pay wall) they be dead in the water
Exactly,and quickly.!

[whatsup]

Fairfax is not considering selling Trade Me. The suggestion was made in a broker's report about what Fairfax could do to boost their s.p. Fairfax has called the report "pure speculation".

A pump and dump exercise if ever I saw one!


Belg, if yoiu read my heading "Trade me COULD be an IPO". says it all . !!

[whatsup]

Fairfax is not considering selling Trade Me. The suggestion was made in a broker's report about what Fairfax could do to boost their s.p. Fairfax has called the report "pure speculation".

A pump and dump exercise if ever I saw one!


Belg more chatter from Fairfax about releasing some cash , down to .99 c now from $4.00 5 years ago, watch this space.

[Mr Tommy]

I think we all sat up when Sam Morgan and others did the deal with Fairfax, and thought "Why aren't we that smart?".

Yep they sold for 750m, and now its worth over double that. No wonder Gareth Morgans kiwisaver is one of the worst performers.

[LeBOJ]

Yep they sold for 750m, and now its worth over double that. No wonder Gareth Morgans kiwisaver is one of the worst performers.

I don't follow your logic. THEY MADE 750M off a much smaller capital investment! The return on capital must be staggering. You are quibbling over the extra increase in value, but how much does a person need? If you are calling them stupid, where is your 750m company? lol.

[LeBOJ]

Trademe is a fairly mature business. Where will the revenue growth come from? There is a limit to the amount of product development they can achieve, and they can't move into another country. Maybe they will crank up auction fees? I guess you will need to hold shares as a regular user to offset the inevitable increases in fees! I might be wrong, but I'll be happy to steer clear of this one. I bet mum & dad investors will flock to the brand though.

[winner69]

Trademe is a fairly mature business. Where will the revenue growth come from? There is a limit to the amount of product development they can achieve, and they can't move into another country. Maybe they will crank up auction fees? I guess you will need to hold shares as a regular user to offset the inevitable increases in fees! I might be wrong, but I'll be happy to steer clear of this one. I bet mum & dad investors will flock to the brand though.

Will take off ..... Trade Me members get preferential treatment ... just liek Myer they will sign up in droves before others get a go .... whoops - forgot most of the populationare already members

[lou]

Looks like an IPO price of $2.70. This is at the top end of its $2.30-to-$2.70 indicative range.

What are your guys thoughts on the price. Too high? just right? Will still see excessive demand?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Lou to expensive for this cat

[Hoop]

Looks like an IPO price of $2.70. This is at the top end of its $2.30-to-$2.70 indicative range.

What are your guys thoughts on the price. Too high? just right? Will still see excessive demand?

Hmmm... without the propectus (due to get registered today I think) the book build at the high end suggests demand,,so it will be keenly sought after.
Fairfax have cleaned out the cupboards with a generous dividend to themselves (maybe equivalent to 50c/s div)..so no family silver left for the future shareholders.
Without much data and working on deductions which could be totally wrong...a back of the envelope approx calculation by me suggests
about 400M shares issued.. one third of which is to go public = 135M shares
Profit 69.7M / 400M shares = Earnings / share = 17.4c/s
PE 15.5 @ share price $2.70
Dividend 17.4c/s lets say they pay out 70% = 12c/s === 4.5% yield.

so I would have these figures in mind before I get to see the Propectus......Its priced about right...so atm using rough figures it doesn't seem to offer any stag potential..does it?

Feel free to correct my deduced figures if in error...or have exact figures

EDIT: update ...134.6M shares to be floated representing 34% of total issued
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10764598

[Balance]

Hmmm... without the propectus (due to get registered today I think) the book build at the high end suggests demand,,so it will be keenly sought after.
Fairfax have cleaned out the cupboards with a generous dividend to themselves (maybe equivalent to 50c/s div)..so no family silver left for the future shareholders.
Without much data and working on deductions which could be totally wrong...a back of the envelope approx calculation by me suggests
about 400M shares issued.. one third of which is to go public = 135M shares
Profit 69.7M / 400M shares = Earnings / share = 17.4c/s
PE 15.5 @ share price $2.70
Dividend 17.4c/s lets say they pay out 70% = 12c/s === 4.5% yield.

so I would have these figures in mind before I get to see the Propectus......Its priced about right...so atm using rough figures it doesn't seem to offer any stag potential..does it?

Feel free to correct my deduced figures if in error...or have exact figures

EDIT: update ...134.6M shares to be floated representing 34% of total issued
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10764598

When it comes to valuing IT companies, NZ investors have as much clue as Winston Peters does about the word "No".

[Xerof]

The floors all yours Balance - pray, do enlighten us.......

discl: DIL at 20 cents, 85 cents, $1.00
discl: NZ citizen

[percy]

When it comes to valuing IT companies, NZ investors have as much clue as Winston Peters does about the word "No".

Yeah right.!!! Lets all hear Balance's formula !!!!!! lol.

[Balance]

The floors all yours Balance - pray, do enlighten us.......

discl: DIL at 20 cents, 85 cents, $1.00
discl: NZ citizen

:)

:)


When you can figure out DIL and XRO, then you have it sussed.

NZ citizen? Good on you - how about world citizen?

[percy]

:)

:)


When you can figure out DIL and XRO, then you have it sussed.

NZ citizen? Good on you - how about world citizen?


Two out of three gives you 66.66%.You must do better,as you certainly did not have RNS sussed,or are you adding to your losing position.?? Sussed or suckered.?

[nwood]

The Offer is opening soon
We're getting in touch to offer you an opportunity to participate in the Trade Me Group Limited initial public offering ("the Offer"). You have qualified for the Trade Me Eligible Member Offer, which is a priority offer in recognition of your support of Trade Me. This is a bit more serious and legalistic than a lot of our usual communications, and we think you should read it carefully.

Eligible Trade Me Members
Eligible Trade Me Members are either:
Enabled members with a feedback rating of at least 500 as at 28 October 2011; or
Enabled members of the Top Seller Programme as at 28 October 2011; or
Enabled members who have qualified twice for the Top Seller Programme in the period between 28 June 2011 and 28 October 2011.

You can apply soon
You will be able to apply for shares online when the Offer opens, which is expected to be on Thursday, 17 November 2011
You will be provided with details of the Offer website via an email from Trade Me on that day. This email will also include a unique Entitlement Number. You will need this to apply for shares, and only one Application per Eligible Trade Me Member will be accepted. Note too that Applications are not transferable.
The combined prospectus and investment statement (“the Offer Document”) will be available on the Offer website, along with your online Application Form. Please note you will be required to download the Offer Document on the Offer website before you can submit your Application for shares online.

Application amount
The Offer Price is $2.70 per Share.
The minimum Application size for the Trade Me Eligible Member Offer is 750 Shares (NZ$2,025) and thereafter in whole multiples of 200 Shares (NZ$540). Applications from Eligible Trade Me Members may be subject to scaling at the absolute discretion of the Company in consultation with Fairfax Media Limited and the Lead Manager of the Offer.
Applications close Monday, 5 December 2011
Applications must be received by 5.00pm (New Zealand time) on Monday, 5 December 2011.
Before deciding whether or not to apply for shares under the Trade Me Eligible Member Offer, you should read the Offer Document carefully and in its entirety.

You can view the Offer Document now

A dedicated Trade Me microsite has been set up at ipo.trademe.co.nz, and you can download a PDF copy of the Offer Document from there.

More Information
For further information you can contact the Offer Information Line on 0800 990057 (toll free within New Zealand), 1800 868 464 (toll free within Australia), or +61 2 8280 7778 (outside New Zealand and Australia) from 9.00am until 7.00pm (NZDT) Monday to Friday.

Application has been made to NZX to quote the Shares on NZSX and all the requirements relating thereto that can be complied with on or before the date of release of this communication have been duly complied with. However, NZX accepts no responsibility for any statement in this communication. NZX is a registered exchange regulated under the Securities Markets Act 1988.
Yours sincerely,

David Kirk, Chairman
Trade Me Group Ltd

Jon Macdonald, CEO
Trade Me Group Ltd

[Winston001]

What to do, what to do...

Warren Buffet would notice Trademe is a monopoly which is a big tick.

Against that, what are the barriers for a competitor? None. Hmmm not so good. Could Ebay Australia break in? Yes - not easily, not overnight, but Yes.

Is there room for the monopoly to expand? TM already covers most markets apart from groceries and securities. If TM tries to be all things to all people the risk is niche competitors will draw away business.

How big is the market? 4 million people. No more. Most of whom are familiar with TM or have no interest and never will do.

I think Warren would pass this opportunity up.

[Xerof]

Not being a 'global citizen' I couldn't possibly have anything of value to add to assessing the merits of this IPO, as it is after all, an IT IPO, and we NZ investors apparently have no clues, but I too Winston, will be letting this one slip from my grasp.

I do wonder how many of the high volume Trademe traders being offered scrip would take it up - from my very limited interaction with this site (usually monitoring daughters used clothing offerings.....while she swans around buying new.....), most volume traders appear to be businesses, used car salespersons, real estate agents or your regular 'garage sale' trawlers.......not your most obvious captive audience, I wouldn't have thought, but there again, Warren and I will stand corrected by global citizens from [insert country of choice] or the likes

Still awaiting enlightenment from our global brucealmighty

:)

[janner]

The only thing missing from Chairman David Kirks offering mail .. !!

" Wait there is more " .. !!..

Over hyped in my opinion..

[QOH]

I can't see any room for growth with TM. Personally I'm finding it harder to sell things on there now, what with the way they keep increasing the fees, and now the huge changes to NZ post system, it hardly seems worth the effort.

[Major von Tempsky]

Well I dunno - according to The Press this morning people and institutions buying into Trade Me at $2.70 can expect a yield of 5.1%.

That is, about half Telecom's yield!

And some people maintain the market is "rational"?

Never has Warren Buffett's words of wisdom been so aptly illustrated that he avoids floats as they are a device to unload shares from which existing owners have taken all the profit and which approach stagnation or decline onto eager ignorant suckers egged on by the news media.

[winner69]

.......unload shares from which existing owners have taken all the profit and which approach stagnation or decline onto eager ignorant suckers egged on by the news media.

and whose selling ....the news media

[Stranger_Danger]

For the record, I disagree with the vast majority of you and am trying to get as many as I can.

I agree with a lot of you on a 10 year outlook (growth slowing etc), but what I see is a great business, that throws off cash and requires very little investment, at a so-so price, in a sharemarket (NZX) that has very few quality companies.

I expect the share price to be a fair bit higher than the IPO price in 12 months time.

Past that, I have no idea, and I accept there are real risks - especially if the shares do up, and, cut loose from Fairfax, the managers feel they have a mandate for fast growth and do something stupid.

Fairfax get 66% at a free carry, and the rest of their business is bad and they still have lots of debt. (If the Trade Me price got truly silly one day, I'm sure Fairfax would have an open mind on selling the rest) The managers now have free reign and perhaps (don't know yet) stock options etc. The thing is underpinned by a quality, proven business.

There is every incentive to make this fly for a year or two. If there is a problem, it'll come after that.

[winner69]

Well commented on SD

Looks like I'll have to take my chance with any allocations going ....

The 'chance for the 2.8 million Trade Me community to participate on a preferential basis' is a bit misleading ... only those who buy or sell heaps gualify .... our rating of 300 odd is not enough .... OMG we have bought more than 300 things on Trade Me over the last few years ... whats happening to the world .... and maybe that is the secret of the Trade Me model

Even if one has to buy on market post IPO probably a few bob to be made in the next year or so .... heck even a dog like PPL saw its shareprice rocket after an IPO .... and I love that word iconic

Bet the prospectus is a littler beauty .... one that will make punters salivate

And one other point IRD is gearing up 'to take an interest in those individuals who sell their shares soon after the float' .... pub talk says they are getting quite excited about it

[winner69]

The head honcho at Trade Me says (NBR) We really wanted members to be able to participate directly in the IPO – they‘ve helped build Trade Me over the years and remain very important for us," Mr MacDonald said.

But only 28,000 qualify out of the 2.8 million community that has helped build Trade Me up over the years .... well done Mr MacDonald - you hark on about the community being able to particapate but leave 2,827,333 (active members less 28,000) out of the equation .... that is one way to piss off the community .... funny how that 1% sahre in the spoils while 99% get left out .... bugger another reason to Occupy Dunedin or wherever

[ratkin]

I reckon the growth is with trde me jobs and the dating service.
The auction buisness i reckon is now as good as it gets.

Many things are now unsold and can be bought cheaper elsewhere , especially with a high NZ dollar.
One example is books , with amazon UK now having free postage to NZ its cheaper just to buy new from them

They have already raised their commision costs , its now quite expensive to sell , once all the cost
of photos etc and commision are taken into account. Dont see much more room to increase charges there.

[waikare]

I registered with Direct Broking indicating I would like to invest around $5000, today they have informed me due to scaling down they are now unable to meet my request. So I’ll guess I just have wait and see what happens in mid December when they list.

[winner69]

I registered with Direct Broking indicating I would like to invest around $5000, today they have informed me due to scaling down they are now unable to meet my request. So I’ll guess I just have wait and see what happens in mid December when they list.


Thats not scaling mate .... thats the polite way of saying you are way done of their list of preferred clients ... prob a cheapskate who only does the internet stuff eh

[Grimy]

Thats not scaling mate .... thats the polite way of saying you are way done of their list of preferred clients ... prob a cheapskate who only does the internet stuff eh Yeah-me too......

[Grantas]

http://ipo.trademe.co.nz/

Prospectus

[Animeart]

I certainly would not pay $2.70 for TM. It's been a while since any major listing so TM is generating a lot of interest, hence the oversubscription and the high price. Similar to the Air NZ bond I reckon. Don't feel bad if the price keep going up to over $3 in a short time as it's unsustainable in my opinion. When it does drop it's likely to drop big time. I'm not too keen on new listing as the management team is still a big unknow and the prospectus only tells you so much. I would rather wait a year for the first annual result to make a decision on whether to invest in a new company or not.

Quite important to have a strong board as well, rather than one that's only focused in giving itself a pay raise (yesterday's article in NZ Herald re xxx company).

[CJ]

Thats not scaling mate .... thats the polite way of saying you are way done of their list of preferred clients ... prob a cheapskate who only does the internet stuff ehI'm one of those. ASB sent me a prospectus today - will be interesting to see if I get an allocation.

[Xerof]

Yes i gave a level of interest at 54k to ASB. Will see whats offered to 'a valued client'

Non committal stage still

[warthog]

Thats not scaling mate .... thats the polite way of saying you are way done of their list of preferred clients ... prob a cheapskate who only does the internet stuff eh

Yes, winner69 is right. But then again, even DB's "good" clients are getting around 2000 shares each.

[percy]

I used to go to Trade Me site on a regular basis,but seldom visit now days,so will not look to take up any shares.

[janner]

Is that because you have now become a " Rich Prick " Perc ?.

[percy]

No,I will always be a "Hopeless Prick" whether I am rich or poor.!!!
I must admit I use other sites.For example their holiday rental section is poor, there are better sites.
Cars, I usually go to Turners Auctions.Travel I go to either Jetstar or House of travel site .Art for sale is made up of over priced rubbish.I follow Blythe Fletcher paintings,and only ones ever listed are ones dealers are stuck with. I notice daughter goes straight to Ezby Buy site,etc.
I also doubt their growth projections, and I am sure the Aussie's will not leave a lot for us Kiwi's.
I did do well with WTF in Aussie,I got them on listing,but over time opposition grew and they lost their market position.Thought the same may happen with trade me.
As for selling,we usually give good stuff to family and friends,or donate to Salvation Army as my wife worked as a volunteer for them for a number of years.

[Major von Tempsky]

One of the first lessons a newbie is supposed to learn, which Stranger Danger et al obviously haven't, is don't fall in love with a share - TradeMe.
Don't make excuses for its failings, ignore its weaknesses, tout what isn't there.

I was fascinated to see it has a putative 5.1% gross yield ratio on listing.

So I read Saturday's Press to check out the gross yield ratio of significant shares on the NZX as a comparison and here's the result;

AMP 7.08, Auck Airport 5.31, Contact 5.86, F & P Healthcare 7.39, Fletcher Bldg 6.33, Freightways 6.24, Hallenstein Glasson 11.47, Infratil 5.18, Kathmandu 5.81, Kiwi Ppty 7.2, Nthland Port 6.54, NZ Refining 5.95, Sky City 6.14, Sky Network TV 11.49, Southport 8.48, Steel & Tube 9.52, Telecom 10.46, Telstra 8.98, Tower 9.16, Trustpower 6.92, Vector 7.57, Warehouse 9.67, Westpac 7.55.

The only one it beats is Port of Tauranga on 4.65%.....And which would you rather have for growth PoT or TradMe?

(of course one could always get that idiot Phaedrus to draw a chart of TradeMe and solve your problems ;-) ).

[macduffy]

(of course one could always get that idiot Phaedrus to draw a chart of TradeMe and solve your problems ;-) ).

A rather low, inaccurate blow there, Gustavus!

Whatever the merits of TradeMe as a longterm investment, I expect that the scarcity factor will offer good stagging profits for those "lucky" enough to participate in the IPO.

I won't be there.

[percy]

[QUOTE=macduffy;360980]A rather low, inaccurate blow there, Gustavus!

Very inaccurate.He always gave me sound advice whenever I asked.His charts and commentary are dearly missed.Only hope he is enjoying his travels.

[Jay]

And how could he draw a chart, the share is not listed yet!

[karen1]

(of course one could always get that idiot Phaedrus to draw a chart of TradeMe and solve your problems ;-) ).[/QUOTE]

Being always in a learning phase, I have enough trouble wading through some of the extremely well thought out posts on ST, without having to be distracted by the growing number of negative remarks in recent times. Phaedrus was an excellent and patient teacher, evidenced by reading his many intelligent posts. He deserved the title Guru. A literal translation of Guru would be mentor, teacher or master. Phaedrus fitted that translation admirably.

It would be a great shame to see top posters leave the forum because of this growing element I see as unpleasant, as no doubt others do.

And for the record, I have no interest in Trade Me, believing it wont go far, but I look at any thread which has posters I admire.

[Xerof]

Holey moley, the Major has had a brain explosion - Phaedrus is one of the top contributors to this thread over many years

wash your mouth out with soap and water

[Stranger_Danger]

I am far from being in love with Trade Me. I think its best days are in the past.

I just think a quality company coming to market with a "so-so" valuation that gets greeted with pessimism often ends up surprising in the first year.

I believe Trade Me will be a good investment for 12 months. After that...probably not.

I noticed the brokers and institutions were mainly negative...whilst bidding for 3 times as much stock than is available.

I suspect people will be talking negative for months. At the same time, I believe it will be going up.

[percy]

I am far from being in love with Trade Me. I think its best days are in the past.

I just think a quality company coming to market with a "so-so" valuation that gets greeted with pessimism often ends up surprising in the first year.

I believe Trade Me will be a good investment for 12 months. After that...probably not.

I noticed the brokers and institutions were mainly negative...whilst bidding for 3 times as much stock than is available.

I suspect people will be talking negative for months. At the same time, I believe it will be going up.



Very good post stranger Danger.I think you have hit the nail right on the head.

[percy]

(of course one could always get that idiot Phaedrus to draw a chart of TradeMe and solve your problems ;-) ).

Being always in a learning phase, I have enough trouble wading through some of the extremely well thought out posts on ST, without having to be distracted by the growing number of negative remarks in recent times. Phaedrus was an excellent and patient teacher, evidenced by reading his many intelligent posts. He deserved the title Guru. A literal translation of Guru would be mentor, teacher or master. Phaedrus fitted that translation admirably.



It would be a great shame to see top posters leave the forum because of this growing element I see as unpleasant, as no doubt others do.

And for the record, I have no interest in Trade Me, believing it wont go far, but I look at any thread which has posters I admire.[/QUOTE]


Excellent post Karen1.Always interesting to read poster's who have given the subject some thought.

[Major von Tempsky]

Ok, lets spell it out plainly.

There have been discussions about the place, if any, in share investment of what is called charting.

I have been to a reasonably advanced university level in pure maths, advanced statistics and econometrics, charting as you know it was not deemed to have any merit worth studying nor am I aware of it as a university course in more than an odd isolated case perhaps.

Charting starts from a static position and makes various analyses none of which are useful in a dynamic market of myriad factors and constantly developing news and related variables. Charting is absolutely pointless for predicting the future except in a totally static situation, maybe the Q'ing dynasty in China and even there you had multiple unpredictable weather variations and diseases.

I am not aware of anyone becoming a multi-millionaire through charting as they should have if its claims were true.
Buffett et al are on record as saying they don't use charting. The banks, finance and investment houses don't use it.

Charting is analogous to alternative medicine and to astrology vs astronomy.

When challenged chartists always refuse to make a share prediction that can be quantified. But they always develop, in retrospect, 20 20 vision as to why something happened although they could never discuss it in advance.

Hence I become rather irritated when I see a share topic under the heading "Contact Energy chart", although when you read such threads you see that over time none of the useful discussion is chart based.

So, I reserve my right, nay my duty, to shoot holes in any chart based analysis and any "gurus" attempting to practise the black art in what should be a rational society.

[percy]

Ok, lets spell it out plainly.

There have been discussions about the place, if any, in share investment of what is called charting.

I have been to a reasonably advanced university level in pure maths, advanced statistics and econometrics, charting as you know it was not deemed to have any merit worth studying nor am I aware of it as a university course in more than an odd isolated case perhaps.

Charting starts from a static position and makes various analyses none of which are useful in a dynamic market of myriad factors and constantly developing news and related variables. Charting is absolutely pointless for predicting the future except in a totally static situation, maybe the Q'ing dynasty in China and even there you had multiple unpredictable weather variations and diseases.

I am not aware of anyone becoming a multi-millionaire through charting as they should have if its claims were true.
Buffett et al are on record as saying they don't use charting. The banks, finance and investment houses don't use it.

Charting is analogous to alternative medicine and to astrology vs astronomy.

When challenged chartists always refuse to make a share prediction that can be quantified. But they always develop, in retrospect, 20 20 vision as to why something happened although they could never discuss it in advance.

Hence I become rather irritated when I see a share topic under the heading "Contact Energy chart", although when you read such threads you see that over time none of the useful discussion is chart based.

So, I reserve my right, nay my duty, to shoot holes in any chart based analysis and any "gurus" attempting to practise the black art in what should be a rational society.


Thank you for your post Major.I still object to you calling Phaedrus an idiot.Charting is a useful sharemarket tool.Phaedrus went past that,and freely gave good natured,friendly,sauge advice, and commentaries,which were always on the button.I really miss his posts.

[Hoop]

Ok, lets spell it out plainly.

There have been discussions about the place, if any, in share investment of what is called charting.

I have been to a reasonably advanced university level in pure maths, advanced statistics and econometrics, charting as you know it was not deemed to have any merit worth studying nor am I aware of it as a university course in more than an odd isolated case perhaps.

Charting starts from a static position and makes various analyses none of which are useful in a dynamic market of myriad factors and constantly developing news and related variables. Charting is absolutely pointless for predicting the future except in a totally static situation, maybe the Q'ing dynasty in China and even there you had multiple unpredictable weather variations and diseases.

I am not aware of anyone becoming a multi-millionaire through charting as they should have if its claims were true.
Buffett et al are on record as saying they don't use charting. The banks, finance and investment houses don't use it.

Charting is analogous to alternative medicine and to astrology vs astronomy.

When challenged chartists always refuse to make a share prediction that can be quantified. But they always develop, in retrospect, 20 20 vision as to why something happened although they could never discuss it in advance.

Hence I become rather irritated when I see a share topic under the heading "Contact Energy chart", although when you read such threads you see that over time none of the useful discussion is chart based.

So, I reserve my right, nay my duty, to shoot holes in any chart based analysis and any "gurus" attempting to practise the black art in what should be a rational society.

Unfortunately :p I have a liberal point of view that everyone is entitled to their opinion...but please MVT don't resurrect this very old chesnut TA v FA...argument here. It's well off topic on this thread.
If you really have an itch to write bad comments about TA, please do it on the appropriate thread.
try http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4939-TA-FA-Old-Posts-for-an-Old-Argument.

[karen1]

Thank you Major.

Whether a chart, dart, in depth or superficial analysis, or whatever else, a well structured criticism of a method used in the arena of shares will no doubt be a useful tool to someone, in fact you mention none of the useful discussion is chart based, which suggests that a chart may engender positive discussion, surely a good thing.

Charting is not something I follow, but it never stopped me reading Phaedrus’ well intentioned posts, as some of his comments were of great value to me. My objection to the use of the word idiot in connection to him was simply that I felt it was undeserved, as undeniably he was well thought of here, and as he no longer posts here is not in a position to defend your attack on him.

Phaedrus’ title of Guru – whichever way you look at it, he helped many to better understand the share market, willingly and patiently. His title could have been anything, it wouldn’t alter what he did.

I believe I am a reasonably well educated, rational member of society, and, like you, defend my right to comment here on something which I consider distasteful, that is the name calling.

Let us all on ST rise above our politicians, who on any given day can be heard to resort to the pettiness of name calling. And I am not singling you out, Major.

I look forward to reading many more educated and helpful posts here.

[chippy52]

Ok, lets spell it out plainly.


I am not aware of anyone becoming a multi-millionaire through charting as they should have if its claims were true.
Buffett et al are on record as saying they don't use charting. The banks, finance and investment houses don't use it.

Charting is analogous to alternative medicine and to astrology vs astronomy.

rational society.

Thanks for confirming that higher education is a complete waste of time. You may also look at investing in some specs. Next time the media interview bank economists, take a look around the room they use. They sure ain't toy trains on them screens.

[Lizard]

Thank you Major.

Whether a chart, dart, in depth or superficial analysis, or whatever else, a well structured criticism of a method used in the arena of shares will no doubt be a useful tool to someone, in fact you mention none of the useful discussion is chart based, which suggests that a chart may engender positive discussion, surely a good thing.

Charting is not something I follow, but it never stopped me reading Phaedrus’ well intentioned posts, as some of his comments were of great value to me. My objection to the use of the word idiot in connection to him was simply that I felt it was undeserved, as undeniably he was well thought of here, and as he no longer posts here is not in a position to defend your attack on him.

Phaedrus’ title of Guru – whichever way you look at it, he helped many to better understand the share market, willingly and patiently. His title could have been anything, it wouldn’t alter what he did.

I believe I am a reasonably well educated, rational member of society, and, like you, defend my right to comment here on something which I consider distasteful, that is the name calling.

Let us all on ST rise above our politicians, who on any given day can be heard to resort to the pettiness of name calling. And I am not singling you out, Major.

I look forward to reading many more educated and helpful posts here.

Well-called!

Perhaps there was a time when momentum trading wasn't a part of the big-boys strategy. However, it certainly must be now. Algorithmic trading is hardly a "fundamentals-based" strategy for starters.

[lou]

Has any one received application forms to purchase the Trade Me IPO (not the register of interest)? I heard ASB securities was meant to come out today but have not seen anything. I also heard ASB Securties is meant to be first in first served so don’t want to miss the boat.

[CJ]

Has any one received application forms to purchase the Trade Me IPO (not the register of interest)? I heard ASB securities was meant to come out today but have not seen anything. I also heard ASB Securties is meant to be first in first served so don’t want to miss the boat.Got mine emailed from ASB yesterday. Might have to send an email soon if first in first served.

Probably only go for a smallish amount to avoid heavy scaling.

[Xerof]

How does "first in first served", but "be prepared for scaling" work? So first in isn't first served.......

I'm out, can't be bothered with all this palava

[percy]

How does "first in first served", but "be prepared for scaling" work? So first in isn't first served.......

I'm out, can't be bothered with all this palava

Can you contact your broker and ask for a "firm allocation."

[Xerof]

No mate, I don't have a broker - I trust my judgement, and I'm a cheapskate, I use internet brokers to transact. That is one of the downsides I guess, but my point was in all this: I get an email from ASB saying as "a valued client" blah blah.......so I respond expressing an interest in 20k shares, to which they respond: here's the application form, first in first served, but there may be scaling.

that doesn't make any sense to me......

If I was really keen on it, maybe I'd persevere, but I was only ever luke warm; its fully priced at the top of the expected range; and the peoples' whose judgement I respect reckon its a pass at 2.70.

Time will tell, I would think there's a bit of a stag in it but just not for me to be bothered chasing thanks

[lou]

The scaling clause will be to cover the butts in the event that they get to many applications on a given day.

[ravjjay]

Hey guys,
Any new thinking on this before the cutoff time. My thinking is that there are far better medium/long term investments out there - even on the nzx - but I'm pretty certain that they will perform well over the first few months at least, mostly due to the oversubscriptions and the media interest that will occur.
Any thoughts?
Another topic: A colleague of mine reckons he heard that ird will try to hit those that sell shares in the first few days of listing with a capital gains tax. Anyone think this is practical, or even legally correct?
Cheers

[Blendy]

Another topic: A colleague of mine reckons he heard that ird will try to hit those that sell shares in the first few days of listing with a capital gains tax. Anyone think this is practical, or even legally correct?
Cheers

Shouldn't this be the case anyway? Aren't we all supposed to be paying tax on shares we buy with the intention of selling at a profit (as opposed to a long term hold)?

[lou]

I bet the IRD wont be following up if the price drops.

[Major von Tempsky]

I suspect Might River will be a much more satisfying IPO than TradeMe although I also suspect that the price will be a bit rich for me and the dividend yield too low....

[lou]

When is the Trade Me IPO list date?

[Sideshow Bob]

13th of December

http://www.craigsip.com/institutions/investment-banking/ipos/trademe.html

[warthog]

I am not aware of anyone becoming a multi-millionaire through charting as they should have if its claims were true.

Thanks Major. That's the most amusing thing the hog has heard today, and it's been a pretty funny day overall.

[ScrappyO]

Did anyone have any luck getting any trademe shares.

[Hoop]

Did anyone have any luck getting any trademe shares.
Yes got some....Evidenced by the fact that my trading a/c has less money in it now.
Those words " have any luck"...hmmm not sure about that... buying into a red ink NZX period is a worry... Chorus CNU debut into the NZX50 hasn't gone unnoticed.

[percy]

Hoop,
You are very naughty.Don't know what is worse,"buying into a red ink NZX period",or admiting to it.?!!!!
I only hope they list at a premium or you will never here the end of it.
" Have luck".!!!!!!!!

[lou]

I got my allocation, but I got my application in when the forms were sent in. Looks like this person missed out http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=10770455

[Hoop]

Hoop,
You are very naughty.Don't know what is worse,"buying into a red ink NZX period",or admiting to it.?!!!!
I only hope they list at a premium or you will never here the end of it.
" Have luck".!!!!!!!!

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/blackboardGIF.jpg

[CJ]

Did anyone have any luck getting any trademe shares. My account also has less money in it. Not sure if that means I wont be scaled.

I am hoping this one goes like Kathmandu, people didn't like it before IPO saing it would be a dog but has done ok since.

[Alz99]

i filled out the form had the money in my account and recieved an email saying i was unsuccessful, due to popular demand,

go figure!!;)

[percy]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/blackboardGIF.jpg

Nothing more to say,except I can't stop laughing.!!!!

[lou]

i filled out the form had the money in my account and recieved an email saying i was unsuccessful, due to popular demand,

go figure!!;)

Who did you go through for your allocation?

[ScrappyO]

i filled out the form had the money in my account and recieved an email saying i was unsuccessful, due to popular demand,

go figure!!;)

Thats what i ended up getting. Im with ASB Securities.

[glennj]

I just had a look at the bank balance of the account that was to be direct debited & the full amount of money corresponding to all the shares applied for has been deducted. I haven't received an Email so I don't know if that means I got all I applied for or if there will be scaling & I'll get some money returned.

[Hoop]

I just had a look at the bank balance of the account that was to be direct debited & the full amount of money corresponding to all the shares applied for has been deducted. I haven't received an Email so I don't know if that means I got all I applied for or if there will be scaling & I'll get some money returned.

My understanding from the timetable is that we won't know what we got until Monday the 12th of December.

Below is another copy of those important dates..and I've highlighted that one in red.....

Important Dates

Wednesday 9 November..................Offer Document registered
Thursday 17 November....................Broker Firm Offer and Priority Offer expected to open
Monday 5 December........................Priority Offer Closing Date
Tuesday 6 December.......................Broker Firm Offer Closing Date
Monday 12 December...................Settlement, allocation and allotment
Tuesday 13 December.....................Expected commencement of trading on the NZSX and ASX (on a deferred settlement basis for ASX).

Just curious??...Are there some people on ST applying for TME shares that have not read further than the cover of their prospectus.... the reason I ask is that these important dates were on page 2 in very large black bold letter fonts...theres no way you could not miss reading it.

[glennj]

Ta for that Hoop. I replied to the thread without relooking at the prospectus dates but now see the option of scaling & getting some money returned is indeed a possibility. (This is only my second day in the last two months looking at sharemarket stuff. Was interested to read here this morning that some have received Email notification that their applications have been unsuccessful)

[Alz99]

Who did you go through for your allocation?

ASB Securities aswell...

[moimoi]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/blackboardGIF.jpg

LMAO @ Hoop :-)

[MrDevine]

I read the TM prospectus. They are looking for 'growth' opportunities, but didn't name them. As a 'weightless' business with a great brand and low overheads, I'm not sure why they need access to equity capital. Obviously Fairfax is in dire straits and needs the cash, they've actually done quite well with their dividends and this sale meaning TM will be now free carried for them.

My question for TME investors, is where will the growth come from in a mature market, so why will your shares appreciate? As mentioned the div yield is sub par at $2.70…

The stags will be roaring next week!

Mr D

[CJ]

Just curious??...Are there some people on ST applying for TME shares that have not read further than the cover of their prospectus.... the reason I ask is that these important dates were on page 2 in very large black bold letter fonts...theres no way you could not miss reading it.But with the likes of ASB turning some people down, does that mean the investors that they did take money for will get a firm allocation or is that group of investors still subject to scaling?

[Catalyst]

My question for TME investors, is where will the growth come from in a mature market, so why will your shares appreciate? As mentioned the div yield is sub par at $2.70…

The oversubscriptions and strong interest in TME suggest to me that simple supply and demand will drive the listing price above $2.70 (provided markets don't explode during tonight's Euro mtg).

I think there is plenty of room for TME to grow even if it's primary used-goods auction platform approches maturity. eg, online advertising, more businesses selling new goods under TME's platform, growing Treat Me and it's Travel offerings.

The forecast dividend yield is 5.1% net or 7.1% gross over the next 12 months (13.8c/270c/72% fully imputed). I would have thought that yield is about average for listed NZ stocks and certainly better then bank deposit rates.

CJ - My understanding is that investors could still be subject to scaling even if your full amount has been direct debited from your account.

[Catalyst]

You can check your TME allocations on the Link Market Services website now...
https://investorcentre.linkmarketservices.co.nz/Login.aspx/Login

Was given the full allocation I applied for.

Here's hoping for a steady opening tomorrow.

[Hoop]

You can check your TME allocations on the Link Market Services website now...
https://investorcentre.linkmarketservices.co.nz/Login.aspx/Login

Was given the full allocation I applied for.

Here's hoping for a steady opening tomorrow.

Thxs for the link Catalyst
Yes same here...full allocation

[glennj]

Yes, ta for the link.
I also got all I applied for. Thought there may have been scaling after hearing some people got none.

[Xerof]

As for people being turned down, thats more an allocation issue which would have been determined at the time of the bookbuild/price setting. i.e. smaller and regional brokers bid low prices, so got less firm allocation.

I'm hearing the big boys who pumped it and went all in at 2.70 without buyers behind them have been offering it back out frantically this week........beware the P&D is all I can say

disc: none

[Catalyst]

Trading of TME starts at 12pm apparently.

[Xerof]

dont you just love the informed, deeply researched article on STUFF posted at 10.11am:


http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/6130905/Trade-Me-shares-open-with-little-action

[macduffy]

dont you just love the informed, deeply researched article on STUFF posted at 10.11am:


http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/6130905/Trade-Me-shares-open-with-little-action

No more nor less than what I would expect from what is strictly a "condensed news" site. At least they told us about the noon start to trading which would have been news to anyone who watched AMP Business on Channel 1 this morning.

[Xerof]

Only after saying there had been "little action at the open" LOL......they pulled that story and finally got it right about the noon commencement of trading at 10.20am.

[Hoop]

Still early days and possibly very unreliable as I assume many will be watching before acting.

11.22am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 283 down one as of 20 minutes ago...
11.25am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 280 down 3 more

[Hoop]

11.22am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 283 down one as of 20 minutes ago...
11.25am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 280 down 3 more

11.37am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 275 down 5 more ......Match Volume 96,439

[Hoop]

11.22am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 283 down one as of 20 minutes ago...
11.25am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 280 down 3 more
11.37am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 275 down 5 more ......Match Volume 96,439

11.45am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 275 levelled out ......Match Volume 99,789 (slowed down)

[Hoop]

11.22am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 283 down one as of 20 minutes ago...
11.25am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 280 down 3 more
11.37am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 275 down 5 more ......Match Volume 96,439
11.45am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 275 leveled out .........Match Volume 99,789 (slowed down)

11.50am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 275 leveled out .........Match Volume 84,550 (reversed)

[Hoop]

11.22am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 283 down one as of 20 minutes ago...
11.25am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 280 down 3 more
11.37am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 275 down 5 more ......Match Volume 96,439
11.45am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 275 leveled out .........Match Volume 99,789 (slowed down)
11.50am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 275 leveled out .........Match Volume 84,550 (reversed)

11.56am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 274 leveled out .........Match Volume 114,841 (a late rush)

[Hoop]

11.22am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 283 down one as of 20 minutes ago...
11.25am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 280 down 3 more
11.37am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 275 down 5 more ......Match Volume 96,439
11.45am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 275 leveled out .........Match Volume 99,789 (slowed down)
11.50am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 275 leveled out .........Match Volume 84,550 (reversed)
11.56am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 274 leveled out .........Match Volume 114,841 (a late rush)

11.59am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 274 leveled out .........Match Volume 278,010 (a late rush)

Well....its been a good example of IPO investor psychology on a non stag potential stock.
Interesting to see a lot of investors both buyers and sellers held back until the last minute of opening

[winner69]

End of the day - 285? Would be pretty good

Other guesses

[lou]

A big rush of buyers on opening

[Hoop]

11.22am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 283 down one as of 20 minutes ago...
11.25am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 280 down 3 more
11.37am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 275 down 5 more ......Match Volume 96,439
11.45am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 275 leveled out .........Match Volume 99,789 (slowed down)
11.50am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 275 leveled out .........Match Volume 84,550 (reversed)
11.56am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 274 leveled out .........Match Volume 114,841 (a late rush)
11.59am the depth says buyers meet seller demands at 274 leveled out .........Match Volume 278,010 (a late rush)

Interesting to see a lot of investors both buyers and sellers held back until the last minute of opening and also it seems more buyers entered moments after opening.

12.03am Opened at 277 volume 2,200,410
12.10am ...280 volume 3,380,410

It seems wait and see rather than sell at opening was the best option for short term TME allocated investors

[lou]

Hoop what do you think will the high will be?

[lou]

Last sale 2.84

Buying Shares 1,103,060
Selling Shares 372,750


Upward pressure?

[Catalyst]

Yes, lou, some upward pressure alright since the opening. Still some big buy orders from fund managers who obviously didn't get their full allocation. I'm going to wait and see where it settles over the next couple of days before doing anything.

[winner69]

End of the day - 285? Would be pretty good

Other guesses



Probably 300 now ... sounds a nice round number

Good one

[Hoop]

Hoop what do you think will the high will be?

Hi Lou
no idea... There seems to be a lot of demand...The media gave me an impression of slight negativity last week and I bought it as I was not that confident before the opening...this is certainly not the case now ATM ..As Catalyst points out there are some big buys probably from fund managers....

Disc.............Everyone has different investment strategies and goals....As for me I have applied the Zurich Axiom Rule 2
2....On Greed
Always take your profits too soon
Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture and when you get it, get out.

My goal was at least equivalent to 2 weeks wages....got that, got out at 2.90
I made a profit:) and so did the IRD:(

[Xerof]

Or alternatively, how much do you earn a week?.......come on Belg, thats a bit personal

Anyway, a sound first days trading, something for everyone with a range of 2.75 to 2.93

[percy]

Well done to all of you who backed this issue.A very successful float.
PS.That includes you too Hoop. lol.

[lou]

Hoop when you decided to get out the price plateaued.
I got out later in the afternoon for 2.87
I am going to read your book on Axiom rules

[Hoop]

so how many did you sell hoop? .... ;)

I sold out 100% ...didn't keep any....belg
Yes I agree Xerof/Percy something for everyone today therefore a successful day...

Closed 290 up 20c volume 18,617,893

[Catalyst]

Area51 - You can check on the share registry site https://investorcentre.linkmarketservices.co.nz/Login.aspx/Login to see what your allocation is, or alternatively ring Link Market Services (you need you CSN and FIN numbers).

If you don't mind waiting another week or so you will be posted your allocation notification or if you didn't receive any allocation you will be refunded your money.

[sharer]

Thanks for the LINK link Catalyst - just the jog i needed to tidy up.
And a relief to find my new holding was logged in recent hours. (Perhaps they knew i wouldn't be the stagging type. But could have been frustrating if i was.)
I'm happy to sit on TME as a good yielder for the income, & keep watch as it drops for chances to expand the holding.

[winner69]

All the IPO excitment seems to have been shortlived ... bit ho hum was it

See Stubbs (the Tower guru) writes about them in the NBR today .... reckons they are worth $4.66
Surely one of the best punts on the NZX at the moment .... come on you guys get that share price moving .... upwards .... needs a bit of +ve momentum ..... so come on get a move on .... open up those wallets .... get onto your broker today

[Silverlight]

$4.66, do you have a link? That must be on incredible growth forecast!

Current forecast for $65m profit full year or 13 cents EPS, give a 18 P/E, while they pay out 80% of cash so do RBD, HLG, BGR, WHS etc, and all trade on much lower multiples.

If TME grow profit at 10 -15% a year, in 2 years forcast will be $85m profit or 21 cents EPS, even in 2 years with that growth at $4.66 is a 22+ PE, and yield would be 3.5%. While I see TME do currently have a monopolistic structure given their subscriber base, there are little barriers to entry, and 22+ PE compares to AIA which is a true monopoly.

As a user, I don't sell on Trade Me any more, I do buy some things, but the fees are almost becoming destructive, they are nearing the peak of their growth cycle in their core business, and unless they do something radical (unlikely with Fairfax in a bad shape and needing the cash payouts), I can't see the growth in revenue that would drive a price that high.

Not a holder, but am happy to be surprised :)

[CJ]

For Barriers to entry, look at Sella.co.nz which I think is owned by APN. there fees are a lot lower (if not $0) yet they cant build market share. The biggest barrier to entry is the customer base.

I took part in the IPO but reassessed over xmas and decided that as a tech play, DIL was the best option on the market. TME is limited growth compared to DIL. I keep an eye on XRO but the hype is already built into the share price so the growth potential isn't as great.

[winner69]

$4.66, do you have a link? That must be on incredible growth forecast!



Need to go the shop and spend $9.90 to buy it (what a price eh)

I think the gist of Stubbs thesis that if TME was valued relative to realestate.com, seek.com and carsales.com (all listed on the ASX) on a country size basis those components could have an EV of $1.2 to which he added the current TME EV to come up with the $4.66

Suppose saying that the sum of the parts (or the potential of selling cars, finding jobs, and property listings) is not really being seen as any value by the (stupid) NZ investor

Go buy the paper and keep them rich anyway

[winner69]

Reread Stubbs little piece .... the key point means that the real estate, cars and jobs section of Trade Me have the potential to drive substantial advertising revenues ..... and if they (individually) were as good as Real Estate.com, Seek, and Carsales.com and valued accordingly the EV of Trade Me could be close to $2 billion ... shareprice of $4.66

Good stuff eh .... and who are we to argue with gurus like Stubbs

[CJ]

Winner - Trademe is already the market leader in realestate, jobs, vehicles. Therefore the revenues from those areas are already built in to the current figures surely.

The value can only go up if the increase members (already #1), increase fees (already people complain but luckily they cant leave as they are #1), or add an extra area (unlisted shares market like Secondmarket in the US, or maybe try to take over from the NZX with milk powder???).

Otherwise, it will just be the cashcow they are already.

[winner69]

CJ thats how I saw it as well .... would agree with Mr Stubb's methodology if the cars, jobs and properties were separate sites without being 'sections' of the same site

However who are we to argue with a guru like Stubbs .... no doubt he will make all the people invested in the Tower Funds very rich

[_Michael]

CJ thats how I saw it as well .... would agree with Mr Stubb's methodology if the cars, jobs and properties were separate sites without being 'sections' of the same site

However who are we to argue with a guru like Stubbs .... no doubt he will make all the people invested in the Tower Funds very rich

I am the only one stunned at how little sense Stubb's valuation of TME makes.

The biggest problem being that he compares the enterprise value of SEK and adjusts on population value to NZ.

Many problems with this:

1> SEK has 80% market share in Australia and 50% market share in NZ (already!) and 80% market share across about 10 other fast growing internationalmarkets

2> SEK enterprise value reflects all of the above so to extrapolate that on a "population adjustment" is very incorrect and misleading

3> All the other businesses have different cost structures, scale benefits etc so comparing earnings would be more relevant that E/V

The only thing I learned from Sam Stubb's valuation method was that it is time for me to switch my Kiwisaver away from Tower! If this kind of over simplified misleading thinking is running the investment business then I do not want my retirement savings there.

Not saying that TME is not a great business. It has great free cash flow and market position but the method which he creates $4.66 share price is just so incorrect and irrelevant that I am amazed it made print.

M

[_Michael]

I am the only one stunned at how little sense Stubb's valuation of TME makes.

The biggest problem being that he compares the enterprise value of SEK and adjusts on population value to NZ.

Many problems with this:

1> SEK has 80% market share in Australia and 50% market share in NZ (already!) and 80% market share across about 10 other fast growing internationalmarkets

2> SEK enterprise value reflects all of the above so to extrapolate that on a "population adjustment" is very incorrect and misleading

3> All the other businesses have different cost structures, scale benefits etc so comparing earnings would be more relevant that E/V

The only thing I learned from Sam Stubb's valuation method was that it is time for me to switch my Kiwisaver away from Tower! If this kind of over simplified misleading thinking is running the investment business then I do not want my retirement savings there.

Not saying that TME is not a great business. It has great free cash flow and market position but the method which he creates $4.66 share price is just so incorrect and irrelevant that I am amazed it made print.

M

Further to the point about SEK comparison. SEK E/V is based on them already having 50% market share in NZ and so that is getting priced in twice. TME has less than 50% market share for jobs in NZ and there is also no adjustment to compare to the 80% SEK has in Australia.

It is kind of ridiculous.

[winner69]

Michael .... but thats how the minds of these people work ... fundamental analysis at its best eh .... ha ha

But who are to argue with Stubbs .... the well respected and highly thought of CEO of Tower Investments ... a leading illuminary of the NZ savings and investment scene ... an ex Goldmans guy ... and an analyst guru supremo

It does make you wonder eh

Of course you can argue in a way .... take your money eslewhere

[CJ]

But who are to argue with Stubbs .... the well respected and highly thought of CEO of Tower Investments ... a leading illuminary of the NZ savings and investment scene ... an ex Goldmans guy ... and an analyst guru supremoMaybe he is just doing a bit of ppump and dump at the expense of NBR readers. It will be interesting to know if they are net buyers/sellers over the next 6 months.

Disc. I got out a 3.04 thinking it couldn't get any higher. I was partically wrong (it got upto 3.05 shortly) but will check again 1 year after IPO.

[winner69]

The funds that Stubbs overseers haven't done too bad ... recent returns are gross I believe

http://www.tower.co.nz/Web_Content_alt.asp?PID=100000797&L1=100000701&L2=100000797

[winner69]

Doubt whether many believed Mr Stubbs but the TME share rising on volumes not seen since the IPO .... and reaching new highs as well

Of course its undervalued .. come on keep buying

[ratkin]

Seems to be showing signs of life

[CJ]

No real explanation though that I can see.

[janner]

TME is expected to do well in tough times.. Is it a sign ???

With the latest meetings being cancelled .
Greece is a long way from being cut and dried..

[winner69]

Guru Stubbs said they were worth $4.66 so still a way to go

Going to be included in NZX50 soon as well

[ratkin]

No real explanation though that I can see.

Results out a week today

[winner69]

Guru Stubbs said they were worth $4.66 so still a way to go

Going to be included in NZX50 soon as well

That Stubbs guy really is some guru .... less than 300 when he wrote his article in the NBR and now 330 ....TME doing even better than the NZX50 .... great stuff

[winner69]

Todays little announcement and share price heads into the 360's .... great stuff

Seeing I am talking to myself here suppose everybody got out early on around the 300 mark

That Stubbs guy might be right, just maybe eh, and we wills ee the shareprice head towards that $4.66 he said .... insight here - never, never, doubt guru analysts

[CJ]

Seeing I am talking to myself here suppose everybody got out early on around the 300 markGot out just over $3 but not to upset as moved into DIL. I am very surprised at how well it is going - I cant believe Fairfax would have left that much on the table. Is the years income/profit going to be so much higher or did Fairfax float it at the wrong dividend yeild / PE ratio?

Your views on the dividend yeild / PE ratio?

[Snow Leopard]

"Shares in online auction provider Trade Me appear on track to double before the year's end, after peaking at a record high of $3.83 yesterday – a 42 per cent gain in just five months (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/6848679/Trade-Me-peaks-on-NZX50-4-year-high)"

Whilst not sold on the simple logic, if any, behind the statement as someone who has bought into this a while after a lot of you apparently sold out I am more than happy to watch the price rising.

I am keeping it on a short leash until the price rises a few cents more but have some confidence that this could live in my portfolio for a while.

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[CJ]

Your views on the dividend yeild / PE ratio?
Based on consensus earnings expectations for the year to November of 17.6c,
TME is trading on a forecast price:earnings ratio of 22. This seems pretty high
for a mature company with high debt levels and in particular when earnings are
expected to grow by a mere 6%.
Compare this with US equivalent Ebay (US: EBAY) which this year is forecast
to grow its earnings per share by 15% and is trading on a forward p:e multiple of
17.5.

I'd be ready to lock in profits if I held any.

[ratkin]

Based on consensus earnings expectations for the year to November of 17.6c,
TME is trading on a forecast price:earnings ratio of 22. This seems pretty high
for a mature company with high debt levels and in particular when earnings are
expected to grow by a mere 6%.
Compare this with US equivalent Ebay (US: EBAY) which this year is forecast
to grow its earnings per share by 15% and is trading on a forward p:e multiple of
17.5.

I'd be ready to lock in profits if I held any.


Is it really a mature company?

[Silverlight]

Is it really a mature company?

The question should be where are the growth opportunities that are going to drive future earnings and make PE of 20+ look fair?

In their current market they are pretty close to saturation, and market share may increase and decrease with other competitors, revenues will only increase on higher volumes and higher fees. This doesn't justify a high PE.

However the market seems to be pricing in a new growth in revenue that doesn't exist, that therefore makes Trademe high risk.

I didn't buy at $3 for the same reason, maybe Trademe comes up with something new, but if they don't back to $2.50 we go.

[The BOWMAN]

There is no other business like Trademe in terms of active customers visiting each day. This by itself is a huge asset. Business over internet is evolving so fast. Every now and then there will be new business model coming out. Which company do you think has the least barrier to implement a future success model? That's why people are buying into TME I guess.

[ratkin]

There is no other business like Trademe in terms of active customers visiting each day. This by itself is a huge asset. Business over internet is evolving so fast. Every now and then there will be new business model coming out. Which company do you think has the least barrier to implement a future success model? That's why people are buying into TME I guess.


Yes ., there are enless possibilities for expansion, They are alreay into secon han items , new items , cars , jobs , ating , real estate, ticket sales etc , they are NOT at saturation point in these markets , there is plenty of room for growth.

[winner69]

In spite of the turmoil around the world TME holding above the $4 mark .... great stuff

Maybe that Tower guru is a guru after all .... what did he say .... $4.60 or something

[Snow Leopard]

In spite of the turmoil around the world TME holding above the $4 mark .... great stuff

Maybe that Tower guru is a guru after all .... what did he say .... $4.60 or something

you were saying ?

[Snow Leopard]

"Shares in online auction provider Trade Me appear on track to double before the year's end, after peaking at a record high of $3.83 yesterday – a 42 per cent gain in just five months (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/6848679/Trade-Me-peaks-on-NZX50-4-year-high)"

Whilst not sold on the simple logic, if any, behind the statement as someone who has bought into this a while after a lot of you apparently sold out I am more than happy to watch the price rising.

I am keeping it on a short leash until the price rises a few cents more but have some confidence that this could live in my portfolio for a while.

best wishes
Paper Tiger

Took my profits. Watch the price recover now

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[CJ]

Overall market sentiment at work, or perhaps jitters over Fairfax's majority ownership and their ongoing issues? Must admit, TradeMe has been a much better performer than I expected - did not expect it to hit $4.I sold out early and did not expect it to get over $4. It has drifted down a lot, is that just on the rumor that Fairfax may have to sell down or has there been something else I haven't heard. The economy is no worse than it was back then - Greece is still in ruins.

[CJ]

Tellingly, the volume for TME has dropped away by 70% on average since it's highs in mid May. Around 500-1m shares traded per day compared to 2m-2.5m shares a day a month ago.So you think it was just a slow and gradual "IPO pop" as funds slowly built up their 'index' holdings, or some other factor, but not fundamentals based.

[The BOWMAN]

Trading halt. Judging from the price movement prior to this. Can't be good news.

[ratkin]

Seems to be all good, they are flicking the shares off at a decent price to the new investors

[CJ]

Seems to be all good, they are flicking the shares off at a decent price to the new investors Those that got in on the private placement got a better stag than the IPO.

I would have thought there would be some selling pressure as they offload but the price has held up.

[peat]

More of a comment about Fairfax than TradeMe, bbut doesnt it strike anyone that selling 'new media' to save a company that hasnt invested in 'new media' as an odd thing to do.

You're supposed to keep the winners.

[peat]

Gina Rinehart has already expressed concerns about Fairfax’s recent partial sell down of its stake in Trade Me.
https://theconversation.edu.au/whats-behind-gina-rineharts-fairfax-sell-down-8090

[percy]

I would have thought Faifax would be better off selling their newspapers and keeping trade me.

I still think this is true.

[ratkin]

Why are trade me constantly making announcements about the state of the economy?. theyn have even started making forward statements about future job growth and housiprices.
All fairly interesting , but why are they doing it , i would rather be hearijg how the company is performing,

[The BOWMAN]

Why are trade me constantly making announcements about the state of the economy?. theyn have even started making forward statements about future job growth and housiprices.
All fairly interesting , but why are they doing it , i would rather be hearijg how the company is performing,

I am OK with these announcements. You can always ignore them I guess. Information is huge asset these days. If they put their data to use to come up with some valuable information, and use whatever channel to broadcast it. I don't see any issue with that.

[winner69]

In the jobs market they now probably have more info than anybody else .... And it is all in one place and electronic. As such any decent analyst can cut and slice any which way and come up with decent trends etc.

Same with most properties being listed on Trademe as well these days

TME likely showing how much data they have - data useful to some ....and then they start charging for it ....another revenue stream even though not that great methinks

[ratkin]

Im thinking they need the jobs, cars and houses , because i have a feeling the traditional trade me stuff is not doing that well.
Its only a personal observation , however if you have a look at their site ,filtering on "closing soon" it looks as though nearly all the auctions are going unsold. Just looked and on the first page of around thirty items only two had a red flag (selling)

There was a time when stay at home types (mainly women) would spend half the day on trade me , now they are on facebook all day.
The worry is that once the majority of items start goig unsold then people will stop listing, and the decline could be quite rapid.

There much more profit for them in selling houses and cars so maybe the increase in those will be enough to compensate for any slowdown in the cheaper items .

Im holding , but am unsure which way its all going to pan out

[winner69]

Ration some interesting numbers here .......don't know what means but some numbers are pretty low ...... Only a low %age gets sold in some categories

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Community/SellThroughRates.aspx

[ratkin]

Ration some interesting numbers here .......don't know what means but some numbers are pretty low ...... Only a low %age gets sold in some categories

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Community/SellThroughRates.aspx

yes, shame they dont have a comparison up with the same categories 12 months ago. Some categories like books are very low , only two percent for fiction , one item in every 50 sells , srely not worth the effort of trying to sell it

[percy]

[QUOTE=winner69;376992]Ration ......

[winner69.
You having trouble with your spelling too winner69?

[Jay]

Ration some interesting numbers here .......don't know what means but some numbers are pretty low ...... Only a low %age gets sold in some categories

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Community/SellThroughRates.aspx

Most lower than I thought, wonder what they were about 4-5 years ago

[winner69]

[QUOTE=winner69;376992]Ration ......

[winner69.
You having trouble with your spelling too winner69?

It's this stupid iPad ......thinks it knows how to spell and unless you check you don't know what it has changed. Knows how to spell iPad though. ....... Steve did a good job

[percy]

[QUOTE=percy;376997]

It's this stupid iPad ......thinks it knows how to spell and unless you check you don't know what it has changed. Knows how to spell iPad though. ....... Steve did a good job

Yes,couldn't see you making a mistake ! Unfortunately all my mistakes are of my own making. !!!!!

[ratkin]

41% of items listed in Mobile phones sold successfully in June 2009 (was 38% in June 2008)
37% Baby gear (was 33%)
29% Home & living (27%)
27% Electronics & photography (23%)
26% Toys & models (26%)
25% Sports (25%)
25% Building & renovation (24%)
23% Gaming (23%)
23% Health & beauty (21%)
22% Computers (19%)
20% Antiques & collectables (20%)
20% DVDs & movies (18%)
20% Music & instruments (21%)
19% Clothing (18%)
19% Jewellery & watches (17%)
18% Crafts (18%)
18% Pottery & glass (17%)
17% Art (15%)
17% Books (17%)
17% Business, farming & industry (24%)

If we drill down even deeper, to Trade Me’s sub-categories, we find much more dramatic results. These were the Top Ten best-selling product types on Trade Me for June 2009:


66% Baby Walkers (59% in June 2008)
66% Telecom mobile phones (64%)
65% iPods (not listed separately in June 2008)
61% Concert tickets (57%)
59% Baby Monitors (not listed separately last year)
55% Laundry items (47%)
54% Sports event tickets (58%)
52% Heating & cooling (40%)
50% Baby Bouncers & jolly jumpers (44%)
45% Tattoos (not listed separately last year)


Found this online from june 2009 , sellthrough rtes look like they are now much lower than this . No mentions of actual volumes of items though. The lower sell rates we now have could be due to lots of retailrs listing new "buy now" products which probably heve very low sell rates.
Books in particular have taken a massive hit , with 2012 june sellthrough just 2% on non fiction. I guess this is a combination of a high dollar , and kindles , plus some of the big booksellers abroad have been offering free postage to NZ making it easier just to buy books new.
Music too should be taking a big hit , digital downloads should kill off the second hand cd market , same with old computer games

[percy]

Sorry this is going to be a bit long winded.On saturday motoring section of The Press had "Bernie The Biography of Bernie Ecclestone"as a prize.Thought I would like to read it.So googled Bernie or Bernie Ecclestone and came up with two good books.
1/Bernie the biography of Bernie Ecclestone by Susan Watkins isbn 9780857331311.
2/No Angel;The secret life of Bernie Ecclestone by Tom Bower isbn 9780571269297.
So google both isbns and you find Trade Me does not have bernie,but there is a listing for No Angel at $44 or there abouts while Fishpond have it for $17 or $18.
That is why Trade Me are hopeless for books.
I have been on line tonight and have No Angel on hold at Spreydon library which will cost me $2.

[CJ]

So google both isbns and you find Trade Me does not have bernie,but there is a listing for No Angel at $44 or there abouts while Fishpond have it for $17 or $18.
That is why Trade Me are hopeless for books.NZD$34 at Book depository and GPB9.50 at Amazon. Fishpond NZD$19.74 at time of looking

I might have to look at Fishpond again. In the past, I have always found them more expensive than the overseas places.

[percy]

NZD$34 at Book depository and GPB9.50 at Amazon. Fishpond NZD$19.74 at time of looking

I might have to look at Fishpond again. In the past, I have always found them more expensive than the overseas places.

Just google the isbn,and all sources of supply will come up.I too was surprised at the Fishpond price as they are usually not that competitve.I forgot to mention the Trade Me price did not include freight.
My point really was that Trade Me are not in the game for books.Yes people still buy and read books,but not via Trade Me.

[ratkin]

NZD$34 at Book depository and GPB9.50 at Amazon. Fishpond NZD$19.74 at time of looking

I might have to look at Fishpond again. In the past, I have always found them more expensive than the overseas places.


try www.usegoodbooks.com (http://usegoodbooks.com) they have free delivery and are a non profit organisation with money going to oxfam

[Jay]

Looking for a book yesterday and difference between Fishpond and Book depository was a couple of dollars and both were sourcing the book from the UK with postage free, just remembered have not ordered it yet!!

[CJ]

Looking for a book yesterday and difference between Fishpond and Book depository was a couple of dollars and both were sourcing the book from the UK with postage free, just remembered have not ordered it yet!!We seem to be off topic but is Fishpond just reselling Book Depository now for drop shipping?

[ratkin]

Can trade me move to a new all time high?
4116

[Jay]

We seem to be off topic but is Fishpond just reselling Book Depository now for drop shipping?

Just saw the reply, looks like they might be.
And just keep it on topic slightly, Sometimes not much cheaper on TradeMe for some books I looked at.

[tricha]

Can trade me move to a new all time high?
4116

I honestly think these guys are getting to greedy, two price rises in a year, I for one are looking at alternatives, does anyone have any recommendations?

[winner69]

I honestly think these guys are getting to greedy, two price rises in a year, I for one are looking at alternatives, does anyone have any recommendations?

That wheedle could be interesting ...throwing millions at it ..and out of Chch as well ratkin

[blockhead]

I for one will be moving to the alternative Wheedle choice when it becomes available, Trademe thought they had us by the cluster (may still think it), they could well find out people have noticed their greed and are quick to move their loyalty.

[tricha]

I for one will be moving to the alternative Wheedle choice when it becomes available, Trademe thought they had us by the cluster (may still think it), they could well find out people have noticed their greed and are quick to move their loyalty.

In a nutshell Blockhead, their greed is beyond belief, I will change as well.

[ratkin]

I agree , they are pushing their luck with the latest increase in charges, they need people tp stay loyal, online customers can be very fickle , and without an army of customers , flogging their goodies, they in trouble.
Although i think they moving more towards big ticket items, and services , like trade me jobs, and the dating site. Plus much of the throughput is now new stuff from online retailers. How long before they cut out the middleman?

The way they carrying on that chart going to turn into a double top!

[CJ]

It will be interesting what they do to create critical mass. Given the founder has a freight background, I would target large sellers (by that I mean wholesalers) and offer quick delivery for cheap. This would be more a Amazon that an eBay but Trademe has its fair share of new products on it.

[percy]

It will be interesting what they do to create critical mass. Given the founder has a freight background, I would target large sellers (by that I mean wholesalers) and offer quick delivery for cheap. This would be more a Amazon that an eBay but Trademe has its fair share of new products on it.

CJ,Are you refering to backer/shareholder Neil Graham?

[The BOWMAN]

Is it just me? Wheedle website seems to be not working at all. Looks like it is a joke.

[chippy52]

working fine for me.

[The BOWMAN]

Wasn't working last night. Web pages changed today. Still plenty of issues, error pages popping up every now and then.

[CJ]

CJ,Are you refering to backer/shareholder Neil Graham?Yes : http://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/wheedles-rich-list-backer-hits-back-sam-morgan-his-site-falls-over-launch-day

One has to remember that Trademe already has a competitor Sella which is backed/owned by APN so they have plenty of firepower behind that and haven't made it work. Therefore, Wheedle needs to find a new angle and better courier integration seems to be the obvious??

Imagine something like Amazon Prime in the US. Run out of Nappies overnight (substitute for anything else - shampoo, soap, 2 min noodles)? Order it and it will be delivered the next morning. I think with Amazon Prime, a $50 membership gets you unlimited overnight deliveries.

[Marilyn Munroe]

About Wheedle. The geeks over at geekzone.co.nz do not seem to be impressed with code that is downloaded and used to display their web pages on your computer.

I understand that Wheedle's code is developed in India. Whatever Trademe's faults, their web pages 'just work'. For an upstart to take on the silver back guerilla of on-line selling you have to be better than him.

Boop boop de do

Marilyn

[The BOWMAN]

About Wheedle. The geeks over at geekzone.co.nz do not seem to be impressed with code that is downloaded and used to display their web pages on your computer.

I understand that Wheedle's code is developed in India. Whatever Trademe's faults, their web pages 'just work'. For an upstart to take on the silver back guerilla of on-line selling you have to be better than him.

Boop boop de do

Marilyn

Yes, and it is not just technology. TradeMe has a large team of people doing customer service and real-time monitoring for suspicious activities, etc.

[ratkin]

It looks like an almost exact copy of trademe , same layout etc, bit cheeky.
What would put me off buying is you cant tell who the good traders are , and who are the bad ones.
All those recomendations from buyers are quite comforting when buying something from a stranger

Stupid time for Trade me to increase fees though. Very stupid , might be enough to persuade enough sellers to move over to wheedle , and if they attract the sellers then buyers will follow

[ratkin]

About Wheedle. The geeks over at geekzone.co.nz do not seem to be impressed with code that is downloaded and used to display their web pages on your computer.

I understand that Wheedle's code is developed in India. Whatever Trademe's faults, their web pages 'just work'. For an upstart to take on the silver back guerilla of on-line selling you have to be better than him.

Boop boop de do

Marilyn

Or cheaper

[chippy52]

[ What would put me off buying is you cant tell who the good traders are , and who are the bad ones. ]They also have a feedback feature. This will take time to filter through.

[CJ]

They also have a feedback feature. Of course they do - they copied Trademe on everything (which to be fair was an eBay copy).

Nothing unique at this stage so it looks like they are competing solely on price.

[lissica]

Much as I despise Trademe, I'm seriously unimpressed with Wheedle.

Tried to sign up for an account and it the verification code wouldn't work. Tried this several times and I've given up on Wheedle. If they can't get something so basic right, no ones ever going to use them, and you need users to make the site worth selling/buying from.

[winner69]

Much as I despise Trademe, I'm seriously unimpressed with Wheedle.

Tried to sign up for an account and it the verification code wouldn't work. Tried this several times and I've given up on Wheedle. If they can't get something so basic right, no ones ever going to use them, and you need users to make the site worth selling/buying from.

Persevere and the verification worked third time

Hopeless response time when u start browsing and run time errors and how do you get something on to a watch list

Not for me at the moment ....only buy things ...but then the sellers want buyers eh

[winner69]

Ads during the news ain't cheap ....what a waste when the product don't work

[ratkin]

503 Service Unavailable No server is available to handle this request.

oh dear , not a good start

[macduffy]

I don't use TradeMe and don't hold shares but I'm intrigued as to how Wheedle is going to get the critical mass of sellers to pose a challenge.

Surely they must have something besides cheaper fees to tempt users to forgo the buying audience that the first mover has established?

:confused:

[Marilyn Munroe]

About this Wheedle taking on Trademe thing.

Interesting perspective from someone who has been there and done that.

http://www.dylanbland.com/blog/thoughts-on-wheedle-and-trade-me/

Boop boop de do

Marilyn

[chippy52]

I think peoples expectations are far to high. Do you really think TradeMe is the same animal today as it was when first launched. As a long time user I can say they even had their fair share of problems. They have had years to perfect their site, not days. Time builds success.

[The BOWMAN]

I think peoples expectations are far to high. Do you really think TradeMe is the same animal today as it was when first launched. As a long time user I can say they even had their fair share of problems. They have had years to perfect their site, not days. Time builds success.

chippy52, you can release a product, or a web site in this case, and improve it from a very basic model to a more advanced model over time. But you can't release a faulty product. Wheedle is simply a faulty product. Some issues are serious, imagine you started a $1 auction on your house and then the web site is down for the whole duration and only one person managed to place a bid for $1? And there are also issue that people can browse the web site but under a random account of somebody else. Imagine someone bid every auction on your behalf! This web site is developed with very bad practice, and the evidence of testing is almost non-existent. I predict it will take another half year for them to just sort out problems, during which huge embarrassment is highly likely. After then I still question how they can compete with Trademe apart from continue being free and lose money!

The key thing is, it doesn't look like anyone at Wheedle really understands how to implement an Internet business. It is doomed to fail.

[The BOWMAN]

Wow, just after I posted the above. Found out Wheedle web site is down. I'll say it could stay down for a long time.

[p2r]

What's the problem with Wheedle?
Getting lots of publicity.
Just signed up no worries.
Free till end of November

[CJ]

What's the problem with Wheedle?http://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/wheedle-lets-you-see-and-change-reserve-price-someone-elses-auction

Or direct to the source - who to change the reserve price on someone elses auction: https://twitter.com/nzben/status/252914529598599168

[ratkin]

Wheedle has been shut down until further notice

[The BOWMAN]

From List Sell Trade.

"As you may be aware, List Sell Trade brought its launch forward this week. We've since received an overwhelming response and thousands of products have been sent in by new users through .csv files for bulk upload. In order to ensure these products are available at the full launch, we will be loading these products onto the website throughout today and the weekend.

This means that our full launch will now take place on Monday 8th October 2012.

Currently registered users with auction listings may wish to edit the closing times of their existing listings in order to reflect the new date."

Sounds like an excuse to me. Bulk load of thousands of products takes minutes at the longest if it works! Maybe it is no better than Wheedle. So much fun!

[ratkin]

Didnt know about them http://www.listselltrade.co.nz (http://www.listselltrade.co.nz) At least it looks different from trade me, not like Wheedlie

[winner69]

A Roy Morgan Poll says more people now go to Trade Me than to The Warehouse .... Trade Me is NZs biggest shopping mall .... and without those horrible food halls

Ratkins chart still looking good .... up up and away

[ratkin]

A Roy Morgan Poll says more people now go to Trade Me than to The Warehouse .... Trade Me is NZs biggest shopping mall .... and without those horrible food halls

Ratkins chart still looking good .... up up and away

Its up , up and away alright , whats going on

[winner69]

Even I thought guru Stubbs was a few years of himself with his 450 plus value on tme. ....but heck he is some guru eh .....all time high and not far off 450 at the mo

Solid, no competition and price rise means more profit ..... Maybe 500 by Xmas

[CJ]

Even I thought guru Stubbs was a few years of himself with his 450 plus value on tme. ....but heck he is some guru eh .....all time high and not far off 450 at the mo

Solid, no competition and price rise means more profit ..... Maybe 500 by XmasI am surprised. I really did pick it as a mature stock, not 50% growth in 10 months.

I sold TME to buy into XRO so not feeling bad but do wish I sold one of my other 'mature' stocks instead.

[ratkin]

Yep, I got this one wrong. A very strong and solid performer.

Ouch , you spoke too soon

[ratkin]

The rat is now out, was fun while it lasted

[elZorro]

A buzz going about with Trademe, Fairfax looking to take the final profits by selling their remaining 51%. I guess they know the business better than most.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/disbelief-fairfax-reportedly-sells-remaining-trade-me-stake-ck-134062

[noodles]

A buzz going about with Trademe, Fairfax looking to take the final profits by selling their remaining 51%. I guess they know the business better than most.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/disbelief-fairfax-reportedly-sells-remaining-trade-me-stake-ck-134062

Or maybe fairfax just need the cash?
DISC: do not hold fairfax of trademe(anymore)

[Jay]

Heard this morning that they have sold the balance of Trademe for $3.80 I think it was, Fairfax have/nearly doubled their money.

[macduffy]

Cherchez la femme?

Is Gina Rinehart's influence starting to show? Perhaps more interested in using FXJ for her own business/political purposes than as an investment in its own right. ie the capital would be better spent on the media assets than tied up in an online auction site.

:cool:

Apologies. This post is more at home on the FXJ thread.

[Hoop]

LOL, yes I see the end price for today is down 5% on them only meeting prospectus expectations. She's still a solid performer for the year.

Mr Market knew something was up a fortnight or two back (or perhaps 6 weeks ago) and was TA confirmed last Wednesday. Simple TA would have got you out at confirmation ($4.13) at $4.09

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TME14122012_zps6309ccac.png

[ratkin]

Simple TA would have got you out at confirmation ($4.13) at $4.09


Ratkin is very simple , was out at start of November , didnt like the look , increasing competition , lots not selling , upping commisions, customer base not happy,
strong dollar meaning easier to buy from overseas reailers etc etc. Now fairfax have seen the writing on the wall , good move by them imo

[winner69]

Suppose Stubbs will be buying some of the cheap ones for those in TOWER funds

[ratkin]

Interesting that many commentators and other so called experts are calling fairfax crazy for selling their best asset.

Would imagine though that fairfax would have a better idea of whats happening than outside "experts", after all they have made
half a billion on the deal

[winner69]

Interesting that many commentators and other so called experts are calling fairfax crazy for selling their best asset.

Would imagine though that fairfax would have a better idea of whats happening than outside "experts", after all they have made
half a billion on the deal

Methinks a fair bit of home town bias in those comments ratkin

Like you took the money and ran .... great company that will continue to grow .... at a steady but not spectactular pace

[CJ]

Interesting that many commentators and other so called experts are calling fairfax crazy for selling their best asset.

Would imagine though that fairfax would have a better idea of whats happening than outside "experts", after all they have made
half a billion on the deal
Alot of this has to do with the fact that Trademe is profitable yet the newspaper business in not. Fairfax needs to be more profitable in 'online', not move out of the area.

Will be interesting to see what they do next. Article on Stuff(?) says they have hired a few high level tech executives so maybe they are rethinking their online strategy.

The amazing thing is they never tried to expand Trademe into Australia. Even if they only became the number 2 under eBay, that still would have added a lot to the bottom line, especially if they could feed all their classifieds into it.

I wonder if Trademe, as an independent, will now try this as they will be able to get Fairfax, APN and New's classifieds.

[elZorro]

Great insights here from MOD.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/8197322/How-Trade-Me-grew-up-in-the-Fairfax-years

[winner69]

Methinks a fair bit of home town bias in those comments ratkin

Like you took the money and ran .... great company that will continue to grow .... at a steady but not spectactular pace

Looks like we should have held a bit longer ..... as TME rockets to a new high of 470

[ratkin]

Looks like we should have held a bit longer ..... as TME rockets to a new high of 470

Yes , whats going on there?

[The BOWMAN]

No wonder the price movement. Turns out to be Sella insiders.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/sella-pulls-out-auction-market-classifieds-be-rolled-herald-ck-136710

"APN folds auction site Sella; Grabone/Sella founder Shane Bradley leaves the building"

[sharer]

Yes. And then we read this morning that TME are selling off (to management dudes) their Treat Me subsidiary thingy.
Maybe this internet selling game is not so brilliantly profitable as it was earlier?

[ratkin]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/trade-me-losing-plot-weekend-review-dw-137806 (http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/trade-me-losing-plot-weekend-review-dw-137806)

[Huskeez]

Sheesh some high volume coming out of trademe this week!

[Huskeez]

Where are the sellers? Whats happening

[brevos]

Anyone else starting to think TME might be getting a tad overvalued?

[okane]

My first double bagger :cool:

[okane]

It will be interesting to see how TradeMe's new fee structure for property listings will play out in the next few months. From tomorrow, real estate offices will pay $159 per listing instead of a maximum $999 for all their listings - potentially enabling TradeMe to triple its revenue from property listings. More details here (http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/trade-me-makes-radical-change-real-estate-agent-fees-ck-146193). Of course REAs are threatening to up and leave the site en masse (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9347556/Agents-warn-of-Trade-Me-backlash) and list only on www.realestate.co.nz (http://www.realestate.co.nz) but somehow I don't think it will happen due to TradeMe's monopoly position.

Just for the record, currently there are currently 53871 residential listings on the site. Wonder if that number will change substantially in the coming months.

[blobbles]

It will be interesting to see how TradeMe's new fee structure for property listings will play out in the next few months. From tomorrow, real estate offices will pay $159 per listing instead of a maximum $999 for all their listings - potentially enabling TradeMe to triple its revenue from property listings. More details here (http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/trade-me-makes-radical-change-real-estate-agent-fees-ck-146193). Of course REAs are threatening to up and leave the site en masse (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9347556/Agents-warn-of-Trade-Me-backlash) and list only on www.realestate.co.nz (http://www.realestate.co.nz) but somehow I don't think it will happen due to TradeMe's monopoly position.

Just for the record, currently there are currently 53871 residential listings on the site. Wonder if that number will change substantially in the coming months.

Hate to say it but trademe is ripe for some competition. Really it wouldn't be that difficult for a bunch of developers and other IT guys plus some business people to throw together an online trading system and give them a real run for their money. Might take a couple of years to get going but with the right people it could really do well and take a lot of trademe's business. All they would need to do is have all the features trademe does and a few that they don't, then offer no fees for a year to build a customer base. Make it look good, run at a loss and list on the NZX which currently loves IT companies (especially IT companies making huge losses) and bobs your uncle!

[CJ]

The real estate agents and their website are probably in the best position to compete with Trademe. They have the scale to do it.

[peat]

5268
A few technical notes on Trade Me.

Historical resistance at around 4$ is now support.
Falling wedge is bullish
Strong divergence on RSI

sorry about the poor quality of the drawing but you can see what I mean hopefully

[winner69]

5268
A few technical notes on Trade Me.

Historical resistance at around 4$ is now support.
Falling wedge is bullish
Strong divergence on RSI

sorry about the poor quality of the drawing but you can see what I mean hopefully

Bit omimous the price is some 25% off its highs of 6 months ago .... brings it into the this is interesting territory

The death cross (PTs 47MA / 199MA cross) at 465 not a good look either

See what happens with your falling wedge eh ... wouldn't want it fall below 4 bucks though (from a TA point of view)

[winner69]

That wedge of yours not really a wedge ... the little peaks ay 470 odd on 22 October stuff the top line up a bit for a wedge

Looks more like a price channel if you join the tops and the bottoms

[peat]

hey w69
I appreciate the constructive criticism and am aware its a little bit marginal
but I still think its looks quite wedgie

5270


and if you disagree again I will give you a wedgie ;+)

Bulkowski's example looks like this

5271

probably best to wait for the breakout (rise above the upper trendline) if one doubts the formation although Bulkowski reckons that with the patterns low failure rate this is not necessary.


Perhaps the RSI divergence is the strongest factor in looking for a rally anyway

[ratkin]

All you can really say is that the rate of decline has slowed.

Also where is the 4.00 support you mention Apart from being a whole number i dont see much history of this stock supporting/resisting at that price

[winner69]

Clsoe today 401 lowest close for just on a year

Tests the bottom of your wedge more than the top which is not a good sign

Methinks we need to wait and see what sort of pattern really develops

[winner69]

All you can really say is that the rate of decline has slowed.

Also where is the 4.00 support you mention Apart from being a whole number i dont see much history of this stock supporting/resisting at that price

If anything 400 has been resistance on the way up rather than support on the way down .... even though resistance can become support but generally in shorter time frames than we are looking at here

Good examples back in 2012 after it floated

[ratkin]

Charts aside , the reason i got out (months ago) was because online buying habits have changed.
Your average stay at home housewife no longer spends all day on trade me , buying second hand baby clothes.
They are buying up new stuff from cheap chinese websites, most of them with free packaging.
Same goes for books , electronics and most other items.

[CAM]

Charts aside , the reason i got out (months ago) was because online buying habits have changed.
Your average stay at home housewife no longer spends all day on trade me , buying second hand baby clothes.
They are buying up new stuff from cheap chinese websites, most of them with free packaging.
Same goes for books , electronics and most other items.

Completely agree with you here.
This is my observation as well.
Particularly for the smaller stuff. A lot of clothes and shoes being purchased directly from overseas.
Trademe might still be viable for the larger items though....for awhile longer

[Sideshow Bob]

Charts aside , the reason i got out (months ago) was because online buying habits have changed.
Your average stay at home housewife no longer spends all day on trade me , buying second hand baby clothes.
They are buying up new stuff from cheap chinese websites, most of them with free packaging.
Same goes for books , electronics and most other items.

But then sells on Tarde Me?

[artemis]

Completely agree with you here. This is my observation as well. Particularly for the smaller stuff. A lot of clothes and shoes being purchased directly from overseas.
Trademe might still be viable for the larger items though....for awhile longer

TME is now a lot more than buying and selling stuff. The company continues to acquire new lines - eg insurance, holiday rentals, overseas based sellers - and acquisitions look likely to continue.

[peat]

5282
Mondays price action went below $4.00 but turned out to be a hammer , (bullish reversal) , yesterday was flat forming a doji (reversal pattern) on high volume, and today also rising on good volume

[winner69]

Good one pest

Looks like one of those abandoned babies moosie saw on the dIL chart.