HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Beagle]

I'll bet you a decent dinner and drinks there's no heartland upgrade this year Percy and I'll give you 2:1 odds

[percy]

I'll bet you a decent dinner and drinks there's no heartland upgrade this year Percy and I'll give you 2:1 odds

Well I really think The RBNZ reducing HNZ's capital requirements was in fact a Credit upgrade.

[iceman]

The Sea Dragon loan.
Can't see the sale of their plant being easy or profitable to sell, should HNZ end up with it.

I read somewhere that there were person guarantees included for the Sea Dragon loan. Can't remember where I read it though.

[Xerof]

belted galloway astutely pointed to the facts:

Also regarding security:

"Although the Group relies primarily on the integrity of borrowers and their ability to make contracted repayments, the Group also requires appropriate collateral for loans. This collateral is usually by way of first charge over the asset financed and usually includes personal guarantees from borrowers and business owners."


Yep BG, it's all there if you look. And if you picked up the phone and spoke to any one of their rural lending people, or even better, one of the Credit Approval team, you'd find out it's all fairly straight-forward. First charge on the actual asset (which might get them 40% in a fire-sale), then tackle the owner via PG's, which would usually include a GSA over other assets (boats, jet ski's, holiday houses etc), plus sometimes specific security over assets such as their own home (usually 2nd or 3rd Mortgage)

At the end of the day, banks are there to support businesses through the cycles, not to bankrupt them at the first sign of cash-flow problems

percy, I side with roger re credit ratings to the extent they are unlikely to get an upgrade in the current environment, so would sub-underwrite rogers 2 to 1 for him if you wanted to take up his side-bet.

Having said that, my opinion of rating agencies is well documented, and I think the market holds the same sanguine view. It only possibly matters and has some immediate effect when a rating transitions to or from investment grade. That causes the funds to make moves in or out, but I don't think the general public gives a monkeys toss

[percy]

Thanks Xerof.
I am more than happy that RBNZ reduced HNZ's capital requirements,so am unconcerned whether Fitch's upgrade or not.
Although..........The statement HNZ were "assessing capital management options" would not have been made without thought of Fitch's view/reaction/consultation.

[winner69]

Yep BG, it's all there if you look. And if you picked up the phone and spoke to any one of their rural lending people, or even better, one of the Credit Approval team, you'd find out it's all fairly straight-forward. First charge on the actual asset (which might get them 40% in a fire-sale), then tackle the owner via PG's, which would usually include a GSA over other assets (boats, jet ski's, holiday houses etc), plus sometimes specific security over assets such as their own home (usually 2nd or 3rd Mortgage)

At the end of the day, banks are there to support businesses through the cycles, not to bankrupt them at the first sign of cash-flow problems

percy, I side with roger re credit ratings to the extent they are unlikely to get an upgrade in the current environment, so would sub-underwrite rogers 2 to 1 for him if you wanted to take up his side-bet.

Having said that, my opinion of rating agencies is well documented, and I think the market holds the same sanguine view. It only possibly matters and has some immediate effect when a rating transitions to or from investment grade. That causes the funds to make moves in or out, but I don't think the general public gives a monkeys toss

They may get money eventually but won't the P&L (earnings) take a hit when the loan turns 'bad' under all the guidelines they report on they assess impairment/provision of doubtful and bad debts

[Xerof]

They may get money eventually but won't the P&L (earnings) take a hit when the loan turns 'bad' under all the guidelines they report on they assess impairment/provision of doubtful and bad debts Yes, but to a large degree, it is already 'built-in' as banks carry non-specific provisions across the entire portfolio, so unless there is a complete meltdown and a very large number of loans turn ugly, (beyond what their security would retrieve) then it just flows from general provision to specific provision

[Xerof]

Winner, but in saying that, it isn't all beer and skittles of course. A significant amount of the loan assessment procedures tend (or they did before GFC with finance companies) to rely on the account manager 'knowing their client' and doing an 'honest' review.

[winner69]

Bugger posted this on the wrong HNZ thread

See Jeff et al got a good bonus last year ...balance paid out in shares today

Deserves every cent eh ....yeah right

[vorno]

Bugger posted this on the wrong HNZ thread

See Jeff et al got a good bonus last year ...balance paid out in shares today

Deserves every cent eh ....yeah right

I could buy a shoe-box apartment for the price of that bonus!

[winner69]

I could buy a shoe-box apartment for the price of that bonus!

And that was only half of it ---- he got those last August

and don't mention apartments on this thread .... HNZ not into apartment lending I am told .... not niche enough .... but heck the opportunity must be tempting .... get mortgages and guarantees and all that stuff ... safe as houses ... sorry safe as apartments

9 sqm does seem a bit too cosy though

[winner69]

Not enough room to swing a cow,therefore of no interest.

Wrong thread Percy. Please delete and transfer to that off topic thread

[Xerof]

Shot past the Riccarton branch today - no sign of any repossessed cows being milked by the tellers, so guessing all good.

oops, not meant to talk about cows.....

well, 9sqm apartments - if they built them in a herringbone design they could hock them off to dai....oh, forget it

Off to Sunshine Coast tomorrow, no cows there, just kangaroos and bloody big lizards - all good collateral though - see you in two weeks

[percy]

Wrong thread Percy. Please delete and transfer to that off topic thread

Fear of being sued by the RSPCA I have deleted the post.
I should point out no cows were harmed while I have been online tonight.

[percy]

Shot past the Riccarton branch today - no sign of any repossessed cows being milked by the tellers, so guessing all good.

oops, not meant to talk about cows.....

well, 9sqm apartments - if they built them in a herringbone design they could hock them off to dai....oh, forget it

Off to Sunshine Coast tomorrow, no cows there, just kangaroos and bloody big lizards - all good collateral though - see you in two weeks

Hope you have a nice trip.
Would you enquire whether they will have the internet by August next year,as I am keen to have a holiday there,but need to go somewhere I can keep up with HNZ on a daily basis?.

[theace]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/70034182/heartland-fails-to-recover-unauthorised-lending-losses-from-insurer-vero

[winner69]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/70034182/heartland-fails-to-recover-unauthorised-lending-losses-from-insurer-vero

That's all history

That sort of lending / behaviour will NEVER happen again I'm told

[Marilyn Munroe]

That's all history

That sort of lending / behaviour will NEVER happen again I'm told

History never repeats but sometimes it rhymes.

Barings Bank which had ledgers going back to reign of Mad King George was brought down by the unauthorised dealings of a pimply faced youth in far off Singapore.

That is the trouble with this business you never know when a minion will pick up the phone and bet the bank.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[winner69]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/70034182/heartland-fails-to-recover-unauthorised-lending-losses-from-insurer-vero

It all got to Atkinson

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/3297067/Missing-Marac-man-sparks-police-hunt

But he turned up

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/3300873/Missing-finance-man-found-in-park

[winner69]

Wonder who drives MARAC3 now ......and MARAC1 and MARAC2

[Beagle]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nzx-milk-powder-futures-suggest-dairy-prices-will-slide-further-next-week-b-175278?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NBR%2520Last%2520Call
Getting VERY serious.

[percy]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nzx-milk-powder-futures-suggest-dairy-prices-will-slide-further-next-week-b-175278?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NBR%2520Last%2520Call
Getting VERY serious.

No interest on this thread.
Please post on Off Market Discussions;Cows in calf and other dairy issues.
Sure to be of interest there?

[K1W1G0LD]

When the SKY is falling DUCK!!
Now this is not very serious.

http://hauntedauckland.com/site/sky-falls/

OOPS sorry wrong thread?!!

[percy]

And so it came to pass that HNZ's sp moved up through the 200day EMA[$1.204] to $1.22.no surprises there.!
Next target the 50 day EMA $1.236.? The MACD and the RS indicators would appear to be saying so.
Maybe time for sharetraders to revisit www.4-traders.com and note the huge eps growth projected for 2017 from 2016.
The projected increase in dividends got me really excited.

[winner69]

And so it came to pass that HNZ's sp moved up through the 200day EMA[$1.204] to $1.22.no surprises there.!
Next target the 50 day EMA $1.236.? The MACD and the RS indicators would appear to be saying so.
Maybe time for sharetraders to revisit www.4-traders.com and note the huge eps growth projected for 2017 from 2016.
The projected increase in dividends got me really excited.

They even more s cited than me for 2017 ( not 2016)

That means $2 in 18 months time

Whoopee

[percy]

They even more s cited than me for 2017 ( not 2016)

That means $2 in 18 months time

Whoopee

And in the meantime your income will rise steadily with HNZ's increasing fully imputed dividends.

[vorno]

Percy, you wouldn't happen to know what percentage of HNZ is owned by foreign entities would you?

[Xerof]

Ask Phil Twyford to do some research on the register - any chinese sounding names are obviously foreign owners (Chris Lee will need to be excluded, of course)

Sorry this is a political broadcast, and doesn't answer the question

:D

[Harvey Specter]

Ask Phil Twyford to do some research on the register Dont use him, he will get the Wong number.

[percy]

Percy, you wouldn't happen to know what percentage of HNZ is owned by foreign entities would you?

Sorry I do not.
Could not find that information in the last annual report.

[davflaws]

Ask Phil Twyford to do some research on the register - any chinese sounding names are obviously foreign owners (Chris Lee will need to be excluded, of course)

Sorry this is a political broadcast, and doesn't answer the question

:D
Nah. Neither Twyford nor anyone else claimed that all those with Chinese sounding names were foreign owners/buyers. What he claimed was that nearly 40% of the houses sold by (presumably) B&T over a four month period went to people with names common among Chinese, and that locally resident people with these names comprised only 9% of the Auckland population. The equivalence between particular names and Chinese ethnicity was demonstrated at around 95% in a separate study testing the methodology.

[percy]

Off to Sunshine Coast tomorrow, no cows there, just kangaroos and bloody big lizards - all good collateral though - see you in two weeks

Well now we know they have the internet there.
We had the same temperature as you.
Well our high of 9 was the same as your low.!!
-5 does kill off all the bugs and things.!

[Xerof]

I see my exit timing was about right (to Sunshine Coast) - I'll bottle some sunshine to bring home at the weekend

Internet? yes, but I have to feed Touhy's New at 3 cans an hour to the guy pedalling the generator to get a connection....

[percy]

I see my exit timing was about right (to Sunshine Coast) - I'll bottle some sunshine to bring home at the weekend

Internet? yes, but I have to feed Touhy's New at 3 cans an hour to the guy pedalling the generator to get a connection....

Just pass him a Toohey's Old and he will pedal for two hours.
It really works.!
Don't worry about your Visa card bill,Jeff and the team are working 24/7 for you.Getting some real traction now they are up and over the 200day EMA.!

[Beagle]

And so it came to pass that HNZ's sp moved up through the 200day EMA[$1.204] to $1.22.no surprises there.!
Next target the 50 day EMA $1.236.? The MACD and the RS indicators would appear to be saying so.
Maybe time for sharetraders to revisit www.4-traders.com and note the huge eps growth projected for 2017 from 2016.
The projected increase in dividends got me really excited.

Coldest day in Auckland for 65 years day before yesterday. Man I wish I could find a nice warm bit of sand to put my head in lol...sorry mate couldn't resist.
Beats me how any analyst has any idea what bad and doubtful debt write-off's are going to be for the year ended 30 June 2017, (two years from now), absolute crystal ball guessing stuff at best.

[percy]

Coldest day in Auckland for 65 years day before yesterday. Man I wish I could find a nice warm bit of sand to put my head in lol...sorry mate couldn't resist.
Beats me how any analyst has any idea what bad and doubtful debt write-off's are going to be for the year ended 30 June 2017, (two years from now), absolute crystal ball guessing stuff at best.
You would have to ask the analysts.
I do note Forbar,Craigs , and First NZ Capital's Heartland research has been spot on for the past three years ,as has been their forecasts.
Possibly they are closer to the company than we are.?

[winner69]

You would have to ask the analysts.
I do note Forbar,Craigs , and First NZ Capital's research has been spot on for the past three years ,on Heartland.As has been their forecasts.
Possibly they are closer to the company than we are.?

Of course they are Percy

It's called earnings management

[percy]

Of course they are Percy

It's called earnings management

Beats pie in the sky.! lol.
And it is so easy to check analysts' research.
All written down.
See who is "on the money" and who is not.
I must admit I think the standard of research Forbar,Craigs and FNZC are publishing ,remains of a very high standard.

[winner69]

Beats pie in the sky.! lol.

Won't mention that other man________ word. You might get offended

Think Jeff be a bit worried about a couple of analysts say $60m ( or close to it) in 2017

Sort those renegades out jeff

[percy]

Won't mention that other man________ word. You might get offended

Think Jeff be a bit worried about a couple of analysts say $60m ( or close to it) in 2017

Sort those renegades out jeff

I am left wondering where/why/how they arrived at those figures.?
And who/when did the speak to at Heartland.?
Do they know more than us.? If so, it must be a lot more.? lol.
We must remember time is the friend of a great company.

[winner69]

I am left wondering where/why/how they arrived at those figures.
And who/when did the speak to at Heartland.
Do they know more than us.? If so, it must be a lot more.? lol.

Reckon 2017 (and maybe 2016) is simply just adding a reasonable amount to 2015 (which Jeff has already told them). You could do just as well Percy but noodles wouldn't believe your sums cause you not a guru analyst

Things must keep going up eh

Still convinced heartland manage to a number - nothing less and nothing more

[percy]

Reckon 2017 (and maybe 2016) is simply just adding a reasonable amount to 2015 (which Jeff has already told them). You could do just as well Percy but noodles wouldn't believe your sums cause you not a guru analyst

Things must keep going up eh

Still convinced heartland manage to a number - nothing less and nothing more

I am very relaxed with nothing less and nothing more.
Share price well ahead of my buy in prices,and growing dividends, could be called a lot more.!
In fact I think Heartland has proved to be "considerable more" for me,and others, who brought in two or three years ago.
And as Heartland continues to gain momemtum, the "considerable mores" will certainly match or better the "nothing less and nothing mores".
Noodles has no reason to believe my numbers,yet I get a great deal from his.!

[winner69]

I am left wondering where/why/how they arrived at those figures.?
And who/when did the speak to at Heartland.?
Do they know more than us.? If so, it must be a lot more.? lol.
We must remember time is the friend of a great company.

I think analysts are bullish on 2017 because that's when the Seniors acquisition finally becomes EPS accretive

To date been eps dilutive

[percy]

I think analysts are bullish on 2017 because that's when the Seniors acquisition finally becomes EPS accretive

To date been eps dilutive

That makes good sense to me.
Thank you.

[winner69]

That makes good sense to me.
Thank you.

Bit of a shame Seniors is not already eps accretive.

They said it would be. Even though didn't exactly say when the normal interpretation of eps accretive is immediately or at least in the following period.

Oh well, can't expect them to do everything they say thy will do

[percy]

Bit of a shame Seniors is not already eps accretive.

They said it would be. Even though didn't exactly say when the normal interpretation of eps accretive is immediately or at least in the following period.

Oh well, can't expect them to do everything they say thy will do

I think we have flogged that dead horse once too often.
Lets just agree it was an excellent acquisition,that is providing Heartland fantastic exposure to a rapidly growing sector.! lol.

[Master98]

Coldest day in Auckland for 65 years day before yesterday. Man I wish I could find a nice warm bit of sand to put my head in lol...sorry mate couldn't resist.
Beats me how any analyst has any idea what bad and doubtful debt write-off's are going to be for the year ended 30 June 2017, (two years from now), absolute crystal ball guessing stuff at best.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/70210081/nz-bank-profits-up-9-per-cent-in-first-quarter-kpmg

Roger KPMG do listen to you.

[percy]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/70210081/nz-bank-profits-up-9-per-cent-in-first-quarter-kpmg

Roger KPMG do listen to you.

He will be pleased some one does.!!
Luckily for us HNZ has little exposure to the sector.
The Aussie banks [some of whom have the largest exposure to dairy farm conversions] will be enjoying www.abc.net.au headline "Australian banks need to increase capital reserves against losses."
NB.HNZ has in fact excess capital.

[winner69]

He will be pleased some one does.!!
Luckily for us HNZ has little exposure to the sector.
The Aussie banks [some of whom have the largest exposure to dairy farm conversions] will be enjoying www.abc.net.au headline "Australian banks need to increase capital reserves against losses."
NB.HNZ has in fact excess capital.

The NB - don't always believe what a banker tells you

[Beagle]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/70210081/nz-bank-profits-up-9-per-cent-in-first-quarter-kpmg

Roger KPMG do listen to you.

Not listening to me, listening to the facts. Interesting to note margin pressure as well as headwinds from rising bad debtors.
Also interesting that the BNZ are running resiliance workshops for dairy farmers. I wonder how all the sharemilkers HNZ are lending too can trim their outgoings ? They can't stop spreading fertiliser or mending fences from their 50% cut of Fontera's miserable pay-out as that's not the deal they work too. Are HNZ being proactive in the same manner as BNZ or are they simply "supporting their clients through this" like they said at the last ASM... AKA lending more money and praying the collapse in dairy isn't protracted.

I expect headwinds to have a significant effect on HNZ's net profit after bad and doubtful debt provisioning in FY16 and especially FY17.

Let's not worry that to date HER customers are repaying their debt's faster than projected eh Percy and that this division has not turned out to be eps accretive as they promised.

[percy]

Not listening to me, listening to the facts. Interesting to note margin pressure as well as headwinds from rising bad debtors.
Also interesting that the BNZ are running resiliance workshops for dairy farmers. I wonder how all the sharemilkers HNZ are lending too can trim their outgoings ? They can't stop spreading fertiliser or mending fences from their 50% cut of Fontera's miserable pay-out as that's not the deal they work too. Are HNZ being proactive in the same manner as BNZ or are they simply "supporting their clients through this" like they said at the last ASM... AKA lending more money and praying the collapse in dairy isn't protracted.

I expect headwinds to have a significant effect on HNZ's net profit after bad and doubtful debt provisioning in FY16 and especially FY17.

Let's not worry that to date HER customers are repaying their debt's faster than projected eh Percy and that this division has not turned out to be eps accretive as they promised.

HNZ appear to have tailwinds while other banks face headwinds.More niche markets,more nimble on their feet,better equity,NZ owned, etc.
Provisioning as always appears sound.Good bankers know their risk/reward ratios.HNZ has experienced bankers and boards.
As has been pointed out a number of times HNZ loans on livestock is sound profitable business.
HER appears to be gaining traction, and with higher margins than ordinary mortgages, will certainly add excellent growing earnings to HNZ's growing stable of profitable sectors.HER security is sound.Repaying debt faster, proves the doubters who thought HER's repayments would drag the chain, wrong.

[sb9]

How's that flag flying winner69..inching closer to your mark??

[winner69]

How's that flag flying winner69..inching closer to your mark??

Flag poles are meant to be more vertical

I given up on this flag pole stuff for HNz this time around

But heck 160 by Christmas will do me fine

Certainty - unless there actually are a few nasties in the Heartland closet

[percy]

Flag poles are meant to be more vertical

I given up on this flag pole stuff for HNz this time around

But heck 160 by Christmas will do me fine

Certainty - unless there actually are a few nasties in the Heartland closet

Only thing that will "come out" of the Heartland closet, is they are expanding their "exposure" to "the pink" sector.
Although I don't know whether you would refer to it as "niche" or not.!
Other than that, I think all closets were sold to George Kerr on a "put option".He appears to be making a lot of use of them.

[percy]

And so it came to pass that HNZ's sp moved up through the 200day EMA[$1.204] to $1.22.no surprises there.!
Next target the 50 day EMA $1.236.? The MACD and the RS indicators would appear to be saying so.
Maybe time for sharetraders to revisit www.4-traders.com and note the huge eps growth projected for 2017 from 2016.
The projected increase in dividends got me really excited.

Well well well the excitement continues.
SP $1.23 50day EMA today is $1.235.
7 buyers for 18,352 @ $1.23 and one seller @$1.24 with 5,000 shares.
Poised???!!!
Well there are now 8 buyers @$1.23 wanting 53,352 shares, and still the lonely seller there with their 5,000 shares for sale at $1.24..
Would you believe some one just brought those 5,000 shares, and left the 8 buyers in the far que.!!
Now where to from here.Will the sellers at $1.25 weaken,or will the buyers at $1.23 move up to met the sellers.???

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/b0aa8e67/nz-farmer-confidence-slips-ahead-of-new-season-amid-declining-prices-adverse-weather.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ+farmer+confidence+slips+ahead+of+n ew+season+amid+declining+prices+adverse+weather&utm_content=NZ+farmer+confidence+slips+ahead+of+ne w+season+amid+declining+prices+adverse+weather+CID _bf803955efe0cfa617d754b762503d05&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticleb0aa8e67nz-farmer-confidence-slips-ahead-of-new-season-amid-declining-prices-adverse-weatherhtml

This will play well into HNZ managements stated intention of growing thier loan book to the agri sector. Massive loan growth in this sector and they can start their no deposit loans on Holdens again too. Wonder if lending to the Greeks is next on their list...they're good for repaying their loans too :D

[percy]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/b0aa8e67/nz-farmer-confidence-slips-ahead-of-new-season-amid-declining-prices-adverse-weather.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ+farmer+confidence+slips+ahead+of+n ew+season+amid+declining+prices+adverse+weather&utm_content=NZ+farmer+confidence+slips+ahead+of+ne w+season+amid+declining+prices+adverse+weather+CID _bf803955efe0cfa617d754b762503d05&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticleb0aa8e67nz-farmer-confidence-slips-ahead-of-new-season-amid-declining-prices-adverse-weatherhtml

This will play well into HNZ managements stated intention of growing thier loan book to the agri sector. Massive loan growth in this sector and they can start their no deposit loans on Holdens again too. Wonder if lending to the Greeks is next on their list...they're good for repaying their loans too :D

You appear to be on the wrong side of the market.!!!
Market goes one way while you are saying it should go the other.
I trust the market.

[Beagle]

You jumped the gun mate. You can't start crowing till its ahead of my sell price of $1.32 :)

[percy]

You jumped the gun mate. You can't start crowing till its ahead of my sell price of $1.32 :)

I will just keep on crowing and crowing, happy in the knowledge I brought into HNZ at under 80cents ,and am enjoying ever increasing fully imputed dividends.What you buy/sell at is of no interest to me.

[Beagle]

Best we agree to disagree mate before this turns toxic between us.

[K1W1G0LD]

Heartland Bank reported the biggest loan book growth, with a 4.1% quarterly increase to $2.25 billion, for an annual gain of 16%.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-banks-boost-first-quarter-profits-86-cost-cutting-offsets-thinner-margins-b-175570

[Joshuatree]

Good idea. You are both just off the hook . AIR and HNZ have uncannily similar charts with both just clawing their way above the 200 dma.

[percy]

I recently posted I thought present fair value for Heartland was between $1.25 and $1.35.I still hold that view.
So where will HNZ's share price be in a year's time.?
The above post I stated where I saw eps growth was coming from. That will drive the sp.
Other factors will be;
1] Growing acceptance of Heartland as a credible bank.
2]Growing acceptance that Heartland Bank do not have to raise capital.[as do the Aussie Banks].
3]Acceptance Heartland do not have the loan risks the Aussie Banks do.[Aussie/Auckland housing ,mining,and dairy conversion loans].
4]Acceptance Heartland have secure funding and a diversified lending book,in most areas earning higher margins, with little or no increase in risks.
5] Yield driven investors chasing Heartland's growing fully imputed dividends.[7 to 8 cents per share]
So that adds up to me a sp of between $1.45 and $1.65 plus fully imputated dividends.So depending how you account for the imputated dividends I see total returns over the next year of between 26% and 45%.
More astute investors will work out that in just under 18 months they will receive three dividends from Heartland.
Above posted 11 days ago.Post #5475 04/07/2015.
Just checked and the last trade for HNZ was $1.25.
Now that did not take long.

[percy]

Good idea. You are both just off the hook . AIR and HNZ have uncannily similar charts with both just clawing their way above the 200 dma.

A bit different.
AIR sp at $2.59 has moved ahead of its 200 day EMA [$2.56] but not its 50 day EMA [$2.66].
HNZ sp $1.25 has moved ahead of its 200 day EMA[$1.20] and its 50 day EMA [$1.24].
What this proves to me is the importance of the 200 day EMA, and also how important it is to give the sp a few days to confirm whether it is "break out" or "fake out".
I do admit to thinking "the market" was nuts when both looked to break the 200day EMA,but I do remember those famous words of Buffetts';
"markets can remain wrong longer than you can remain solvent."

[percy]

Best we agree to disagree mate before this turns toxic between us.

From page one this thread has been toxic.
Post #4 ..01/06/2011."seems the silk purse remains a sow's ear."
No banking licence.
Legacy property loans will not be realised for what HNZ think.
HNZ will need to raise capital.
HNZ are not in a position to pay a dividend.
Every dairy farmer in NZ is up to their eyeballs to HNZ.Only banker to lend to this sector.
HNZ are financing cars to people who will never be able to pay the interest or the principal.
HNZ should make $59mil this year.
HNZ are puling the wool over our eyes with their low projections.
HNZ should have done more acquisitions.
HNZ should not have brought the REL business.

So Roger you may understand why I am a bit tired of toxic.

[couta1]

Speaking of toxic the latest dairy price auction is a shocker:eek2:

[percy]

The link to this has already been posted on the correct thread.
Offmarket Discussions.Cows in calf etc.
You may find my post #19 on that thread interesting,as you can see who has been swimming without trunks on, as the tide goes out.

[Master98]

Speaking of toxic the latest dairy price auction is a shocker:eek2:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11481405

methinks HNZ will inevitably write off bad debt related to dairy sector in coming year. oops, post in wrong place.

[winner69]

Dairy prices contine to tumble, recession to hit heartland New Zealand

That's what I heard n the radio this morning


Must affect Heartland sometime, even if it is the downstream impacts

[percy]

Dairy prices contine to tumble, recession to hit heartland New Zealand

That's what I heard n the radio this morning


Must affect Heartland sometime, even if it is the downstream impacts

Most probably open up opportunities for Heartland, as the Australian Banks grapple with their huge NZ rural sector exposure.;
ANZ,$11.3 billion as @ 31-03-2015.
CBA has grown rural lending 10.3% in the year ended 31-03-2015,of which 73% is to dairy farms.
BNZ's agriculture exposure is $12.7 billion,of which 62% is the dairy sector.
I did post these figures on;Off Market Discussions.Cows etc yesterday.

[warthog]

Dairy prices contine to tumble, recession to hit heartland New Zealand

That's what I heard n the radio this morning


Must affect Heartland sometime, even if it is the downstream impacts

Aaaand HNZ up almost 1%…

[vorno]

I think I feel the winds of change.

[winner69]

Aaaand HNZ up almost 1%…

The word must be out - Jeff to come out with a boomer guidance for F16

And $46m-$48m for F15 is actually higher - the postman always delivers they say (at least 3 times. Week)

[winner69]

I think I feel the winds of change.

heading $1.60 barring accidents (and this baby not swimming naked) ....remember it was $1.40 not that long ago

[Jay]

Going the opposite direction so far today -or is just flexing the rubber band before it lets go and rushes towards $1.60+ ?

[Master98]

Note 4-traders.
PGW eps.; 2014 .... 5.6.....2015....5.10.....2016.....4.30...... 2017.....5............Stagnant..
HNZ eps.;2014 ........9.......2015.....9.7.......2016....10.4... ....2017.....12.2......Growth.
percy, i pretty sure 4-traders not yet factor in current dairy collapse which heavily impact HNZ forwards.
also not yet factor in PGW earnings upgrade twice.

[percy]

I have posted a reply on PGW thread.
What we must remember is PGW's total business is in the rural sector,while the rural sector is only a part of HNZ's.A very important part yes.Of HNZ rural sector business dairy sector makes up only a part of their lending.It is secured lending, with guarantees.
In post # 5583 I have pointed out which banks have the largest exposure.

[Master98]

percy, i pretty sure 4-traders not yet factor in current dairy collapse which heavily impact HNZ forwards.
also not yet factor in PGW earnings upgrade twice.
PGW has insisted they have most diversified agri exposure and dairy only count very small, pgw is very smart to sold their finance arm PGWF to HNZ years ago, it was a smart move and HNZ hold this hot potato.

[percy]

PGW has insisted they have most diversified agri exposure and dairy only count very small, pgw is very smart to sold their finance arm PGWF to HNZ years ago, it was a smart move and HNZ hold this hot potato.

Been, and will continue to be a very successful arrangement for both PGW and HNZ.

[RTM]

I hold quite a few shares in Bank of America(BAC). Nearly everything I read indicates that when interest rates increase later in the year, BAC should do really well. I hope this is correct. I also have quite a few HNZ shares. In fact it is my biggest NZ holding. I am thinking that the lower interest rate environment that we are moving into is going to negatively impact HNZ over the next 12-18 months. I will continue to hold....although looking back should perhaps have lightened up a bit when they were around $1.40. Note: Also have some PGW.

[Beagle]

Edited in the interests of fairness.

[percy]

Extract from MSN money article this morning, sorry can't cut and paste the whole article off that site. Looks like HNZ can have all the exposure they want to this sector...lender of last resort ?
The beginning of the "custard" hitting the fan for this sector ?

No surprises there.!
I expect it is the banks with the big exposure to the sector acting, and that would be ANZ with $11.3billion,BNZ with $7.87 billion and CBA who have increased their exposure.
Hope the Northland farmers have paid their PGW bill?.
Roger would you be so kind to post this on the ANZ bank thread,as there is a link there as to how ANZ act towards their own farmers.

[DarkHorse]

No surprises there.!
I expect it is the banks with the big exposure to the sector acting, and that would be ANZ with $11.3billion,BNZ with $7.87 billion and CBA who have increased their exposure.
Hope the Northland farmers have paid their PGW bill?.
Roger would you be so kind to post this on the ANZ bank thread,as there is a link there as to how ANZ act towards their own farmers.

Interesting debate. Can anyone provide some raw data on the extent of HNZ's exposure to the dairy sector?



D

[winner69]

Maybe it would be worthwhile reviewing their half year/annual report, where segment information relating to the rural sector is provided?

The 2014 half year notes show total rural assets as $454.564m over total group assets of $3,162.169m, which means rural assets make up 14.4% of heartlands total assets.

Net operating income from the rural segment is $11.755m over total operating income income of $70.109m, or 16.8%.


Also regarding security:

"Although the Group relies primarily on the integrity of borrowers and their ability to make contracted repayments, the Group also requires appropriate collateral for loans. This collateral is usually by way of first charge over the asset financed and usually includes personal guarantees from borrowers and business owners."



Dark horse - Does belteds earlier post answer your question

[winner69]

Interesting that lending to 'rural' is up 11% from June 14 to December 14. Growth company, so should expect such an increase eh.

Profit margin on rural lending 3%-4% so if disaster does happen and they need to 'impair' an additional 4% of the loans over and above normal provisioning no money made from rural that year

Mind you they have only had $700k of impairments in rural in the 12months to Dec 14 (0.15% of assets) so must be pretty pleased with how loans are keeping up to date

[DarkHorse]

Dark horse - Does belteds earlier post answer your question

Yes it does, very helpful thank you! I assumed it would've been a lot higher. Seems Percy's right about PGW being at greater risk from downturn - albeit it's not priced as a growth company. Certainly the likes of Scales, Seeka, Comvita provide nice counterbalance with offshore markets and benefits from falling kiwi :)

[tim23]

Think about when reverse mortgages become more mainstream, HNZ well positioned but then again I expect them to be taken over in next 5 years.

[percy]

Think about when reverse mortgages become more mainstream, HNZ well positioned but then again I expect them to be taken over in next 5 years.

Unfortunately you will most probably be proved right.
I have a friend who has been comparing Iceland's recovery from their huge near bankruptcy problems,to Finland's.
Iceland have their own currency, while Finland's is the Euro.
Iceland have recovered, while Finland has not.
I kept thinking what would have happened, had NZ had currency union with Australia.We would have been tied to their policies.While we were adjusting to the "new "world after GFC Aussie were having their mining boom.
Taking it a step further, I think it is in our best interest to have strong NZ banks.Were are lucky having the choice of SBS,TSB,The Co-Op bank, Kiwi bank,and offcourse the only NZ listed bank, HNZ.
Kiwi bank taking over HNZ would most probably be the best option for New Zealanders.

[NZSilver]

Completely agree Percy, the country should own their banks. I use kiwi & heartland, + I have an acc with TSB that has been sitting around since I was a kid

[percy]

Interesting that lending to 'rural' is up 11% from June 14 to December 14. Growth company, so should expect such an increase eh.

Profit margin on rural lending 3%-4% so if disaster does happen and they need to 'impair' an additional 4% of the loans over and above normal provisioning no money made from rural that year

Mind you they have only had $700k of impairments in rural in the 12months to Dec 14 (0.15% of assets) so must be pretty pleased with how loans are keeping up to date

HNZ's financial year ended on 30th June.
I think their announcement of 4 days earlier, on the 26th June ,rather confirms there has been no "blow out" of rural impairments,otherwise they would be needing to preserve capital,and not saying"as well as assessing possible capital management options to improve return on equity".That announcement was signed off by both the CEO and the CFO.
They also stated they will continue to investigate potential acquisition opportunities.

[winner69]

HNZ's financial year ended on 30th June.
I think their announcement of 4 days earlier, on the 26th June ,rather confirms there has been no "blow out" of rural impairments,otherwise they would be needing to preserve capital,and not saying"as well as assessing possible capital management options to improve return on equity".That announcement was signed off by both the CEO and the CFO.
They also stated they will continue to investigate potential acquisition opportunities.

Best pay to improve ROE is make heaps more money. Hope that's the option they take.

[warthog]

Unfortunately you will most probably be proved right.
I have a friend who has been comparing Iceland's recovery from their huge near bankruptcy problems,to Finland's.
Iceland have their own currency, while Finland's is the Euro.
Iceland have recovered, while Finland has not.
I kept thinking what would have happened, had NZ had currency union with Australia.We would have been tied to their policies.While we were adjusting to the "new "world after GFC Aussie were having their mining boom.
Taking it a step further, I think it is in our best interest to have strong NZ banks.Were are lucky having the choice of SBS,TSB,The Co-Op bank, Kiwi bank,and offcourse the only NZ listed bank, HNZ.
Kiwi bank taking over HNZ would most probably be the best option for New Zealanders.

Agreed, Percy.

The Finns are not silly, or blind (re. Iceland). If successfully exiting excessive debt situations with sovereignty intact was a genuine objective, don't you think they would choose that option, hands down? There are other agendas in play in Europe.

Meanwhile National are taking NZ in the direction of more power for international capital/corporates (TPP) and fewer options for New Zealanders.

How about HNZ taking over Kiwi Bank?

[winner69]

HNZ's financial year ended on 30th June.
I think their announcement of 4 days earlier, on the 26th June ,rather confirms there has been no "blow out" of rural impairments,otherwise they would be needing to preserve capital,and not saying"as well as assessing possible capital management options to improve return on equity".That announcement was signed off by both the CEO and the CFO.
They also stated they will continue to investigate potential acquisition opportunities.

As I said heartland haven't seen the need to do much more provisioning for bad debts in rural over and above the norm.

All rural loans must be pretty well up to date

Good eh

[percy]

Certainly is...
There is a saying which I often think is so true;
"Today is the day,that yesterday we worried about,and all is well."

[winner69]

Certainly is...
There is a saying which I often think is so true;
"Today is the day,that yesterday we worried about,and all is well."


The days are long, the decades are short.

[couta1]

I'll be sure to let you know when I have bought back in so you can all sell up:eek2: PS- I hope your taking your own advice and buying tomorrow.
Just to let you know that I'm back in at $1.21 so you nervous ones better start selling, I may not be in for a long time but it will be a good time:cool:. PS-Only holding 70k shares now.

[vorno]

Just to let you know that I'm back in at $1.21 so you nervous ones better start selling, I may not be in for a long time but it will be a good time:cool:. PS-Only holding 70k shares now.

Heh, "only" :P

Well I think you've picked a good time for it, it's little over a month before dividend if I'm correct.

[percy]

Heh, "only" :P

Well I think you've picked a good time for it, it's little over a month before dividend if I'm correct.

The year ended 30th June result will be announced very late August,and the final dividend is usually paid early October.
Couta1.Just between you and me,but if you hang onto your shares for about 15 months you will receive 3 fully imputed divies.Not a lot of people know that.!

[tim23]

If you hold most shares that pay twice yearly for 365 days plus 1 more day then you also get 3 dividends.

[percy]

If you hold most shares that pay twice yearly for 365 days plus 1 more day then you also get 3 dividends.

Subject to buying on the right day.. lol.
In HNZ's case buying today you will need to hang on for near 15 months.
tim23.I don't want Couta1 coming back in 366 days saying he only got two divies,you were wrong.!!!!!!!!!!! lol.

[Xerof]

NBR today: Banks in good position to withstand pressure from weaker dairy sector, Moody's says



Ooops, sorry wrong thread.....:D:D

[Joshuatree]

How about posting the kinky link :cursing::lol:

[Xerof]

How about posting the kinky link :cursing::lol:

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-banks-good-position-withstand-pressure-weaker-dairy-sector-moodys-says-b-175925

[Joshuatree]

Thanks Xerof. Lots of good reading and figures in there"

The ratings have always incorporated a certain element of volatility," he said. "If you look at the key metrics for the New Zealand banks, whether it be profitability, capital, asset quality or funding, they have all improved over the past couple of years and we haven't actually moved the ratings despite this improvement, so the ratings do have a certain amount of buffer in them to withstand some weakening in their metrics.


"A Federated Farmers survey published this month showed a net 25.7 percent of farmers expect their debt to increase over the next 12 months, compared with a net 6.7 percent in January. Debt expectations picked up across all farming sectors, led by the dairy industry where a net 48.9 percent of farmers expected to increase debt. A net 18.1 percent of arable farmers expected to increase debt, compared with a net 2.6 percent of meat and fibre farmers."

[Joshuatree]

The Clash - Should I Stay or Should I Go (Live) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RK34uNGvMbs)

[Master98]

https://nzx.com/companies/HNZ/announcements/267363

director resignation...

[percy]

https://nzx.com/companies/HNZ/announcements/267363

director resignation...

Sorry to see him leave.
Wonder whether JT will follow him?

[winner69]

Sorry to see him leave.
Wonder whether JT will follow him?

I had feeling that Jonas was the real brains in Heartland so an enormous loss

Save heaps on the wage bill ....he was on a good wicket

[winner69]

Sorry to see him leave.
Wonder whether JT will follow him?

Whose JT, hope not a typo and you meant JG

Not with it today .....cycling was exciting over night

[cheeky]

Pretty big volume through today and still plenty on offer. Change of sentiment? Felt like we were back on the up

[percy]

I had feeling that Jonas was the real brains in Heartland so an enormous loss

Save heaps on the wage bill ....he was on a good wicket

Didn't you say the same when Sean Kam and Mark Mountcastle resigned?
Greenslade attracted great people to key positions in HNZ.They all performed, making HNZ a lot better business .
HNZ is the envy of all NZ financial organisations with its strong balance sheet , and recognition that they are achieving what they say they will do.
This means they will attract the very best people to fill Michael Jonas place.

[Beagle]

Being Head of Strategic & Product Development I think its not unreasonable to infer there is some tension around the board table with how the new loan products are performing and / or some directors wanting a more traditional approach and / or potential disagreement with further new product initiatives.

As a separate matter it is very interesting to note the SP dropped in a meaningful way and on bigger than normal volume before this announcement came out. That in itself is not a good look as it suggests insiders are very disappointed with this key intellectual loss.

[Joshuatree]

Rodger The Wedgie. HNZ below 200DMA and Rog moves in creating doubt.:lol:
Teamed up with KW i bet and backing the truck and trailer up ehh.:sneaky2:
Well you won't get them even from my cold dead hands!!:cursing:
w69 is so quixotic i now know why; sleep deprivation and a drive to see both points of view and make maximum dosh daily with a 9 sec span of attention.:D
Did anyone notice my post above came out re 8 mins before the announcement;)

Ignore me I'm suffering an indecisive colony collapse breakdown about HNZ:eek2:

[Beagle]

Yes I noticed your post was before the annoucement..... More leaks than a sieve eh:ohmy:

[winner69]

Rodger The Wedgie. HNZ below 200DMA and Rog moves in creating doubt.:lol:
Teamed up with KW i bet and backing the truck and trailer up ehh.:sneaky2:
:

... and I thought you were coming on to tell us about the impending DEATH CROSS .... below the 200MA is bad enough but a DEATH CROSS is ouch

Bugger -should have sold the lot like Roger did at 131 ...or was it 132

[Xerof]

It wasn't a presented as a price sensitive announcement - stop being so sensitive:D

[vorno]

Percy, what's your take on this? Sounds like you're not worried due to the previous attractions to "new director(s)"?
The market doesn't agree with you, that's for sure!! :P

[percy]

Percy, what's your take on this? Sounds like you're not worried due to the previous attractions to "new director(s)"?
The market doesn't agree with you, that's for sure!! :P

The market often does not agree with me.
I can only control what I think and do.[the market often catches up with me].
Xerof again shows us his sound judgement.

[Jantar]

In theory I am down so much on HNZ that if it was almost any other company I would be cutting my losses. But then I look at the fundamentals, and the return on my investment over the longer term, and it is still a hold.

[percy]

In theory I am down so much on HNZ that if it was almost any other company I would be cutting my losses. But then I look at the fundamentals, and the return on my investment over the longer term, and it is still a hold.

Jantar,
I am sorry you are down on your HNZ investment.
The fundamentals remain good,as does HNZ balance sheet,and their management just keep achieving what they say they will do.
My watch list is on www.stocknessmonster.com If you type in HNZ and then NZ and then go to news it will bring up this year's news.
You can then click go onto the right hand side of the page and read the HNZ news for any year you want.Go back a few years and read the presentations,and half year and full year results.It will confirm you have invested wisely.I have steadily added to my HNZ position until it is now my largest holding.I sold a few I received in divie reinvestment last November to buy into SCL.Other than that I have not sold any,and have no intention of selling any in the foreseeable future.Yes I was very concerned a few weeks ago when HNZ sp went below the 200day EMA.I thought long and hard about my HNZ holding,re did my research,and decided I was right.

[tim23]

Gee Jantar you can't be down too much unless you paid $1.42 and you have sold in the last few weeks, they've hardly crashed have they?

[winner69]

Wonder if Michael has already left the building?

[winner69]

Wonder if Michael has already left the building?

Maybe not.

His smiling face still on the Heartland website

[percy]

Maybe not.

His smiling face still on the Heartland website

I look forward to seeing where he goes to.
Remember Craig Stephen went to CEO with Tainui,so I expect Michael Jonas will get a top position.

[Joshuatree]

In theory I am down so much on HNZ that if it was almost any other company I would be cutting my losses. But then I look at the fundamentals, and the return on my investment over the longer term, and it is still a hold.

I've been a long term holder so a little diff for me.However its my worst performer currently, a new experience for me, in my portfolio and does stick out like a dogs proverbials and was looking weak; before todays resignation. Last year an indicator update was on the 7th Aug and results 25th. not long to wait .We have a fair idea re profits. The outlook is what i will make decisions on.

[stoploss]

Gee Jantar you can't be down too much unless you paid $1.42 and you have sold in the last few weeks, they've hardly crashed have they?
Then it's not about how much he paid, maybe how many he has .....?

[winner69]

Jonas got paid $1,061,000 in FY14

Possible cost savings coming up I hope

[percy]

Jonas got paid $1,061,000 in FY14

Possible cost savings coming up I hope

Wonder what his next job will pay $2mil plus?? lol.

[Jantar]

Gee Jantar you can't be down too much unless you paid $1.42 and you have sold in the last few weeks, they've hardly crashed have they?
I bought a few days before it went ex Div at $1.38.

However I'm in for the longer term and as long as dividends stay where they have been for the past year, or better still increase, then I am still getting a reasonable ROE. So no need to panic. :D

[tim23]

I agree the basics are still in tact, yield well supports current share price too.

[winner69]

Wonder what his next job will pay $2mil plus?? lol.

Opportunity for more diversity in the management team at least, if not the word

Ethnicity and gender comes to mind, especially for a bank that prides itself on being very diverse (in its lending that is)

[percy]

Opportunity for more diversity in the management team at least, if not the word

Ethnicity and gender comes to mind, especially for a bank that prides itself on being very diverse (in its lending that is)

My thoughts exactly.!

[Baa_Baa]

Of no consequence to the beloved probably, but despite our tendency to be glued to NZX announcements and act instantly to any announcement, if only to talk it through, is that the majority won't absorb the news until tomorrow or being Friday until the weekend. So tomorrow and Monday we should see whether a key-man defection further impacts the SP.

Co-incidentaly perhaps is today the SP touched perfectly on the underside of the downward linear regression channel that the SP had only just recently re-entered, while also scything through the 200EMA that previously at least caused pause for thought, before failing to the downside. It might be too optimistic that today saw the end of the reaction to Mr Jonas exit.

It's not good when the brains trust votes with their feet. I suspect buying/accumulation opportunity will emerge from this, while the devoted fiddle with their prayer beads.

[Beagle]

Of no consequence to the beloved probably, but despite our tendency to be glued to NZX announcements and act instantly to any announcement, if only to talk it through, is that the majority won't absorb the news until tomorrow or being Friday until the weekend. So tomorrow and Monday we should see whether a key-man defection further impacts the SP.

Co-incidentaly perhaps is today the SP touched perfectly on the underside of the downward linear regression channel that the SP had only just recently re-entered, while also scything through the 200EMA that previously at least caused pause for thought, before failing to the downside. It might be too optimistic that today saw the end of the reaction to Mr Jonas exit.

It's not good when the brains trust votes with their feet. I suspect buying/accumulation opportunity will emerge from this, while the devoted fiddle with their prayer beads.

Good post. Harmoney loses $6.25 million in the first 11 months and the director of HNZ in charge of new product resigns, (was pushed ?, they were hardly over effusive when talking up his contribution were they ?). Normal new business start up losses or a connection between these two events ? Breech of 200 day MA is pretty clear now. Claims that dairy falling off the edge of a cliff will have no effect on this company are perhaps starting to look a little unfounded ?, you folks be the judge.

Unrelated but of some interest from a market perspective on where interest rates are headed this morning the BNZ launches 2 year mortgage rate special for 4.69% ! WOW !
I've been around a long while but I am struggling to EVER recall a rate that low before ? They operate in different sectors, acknowledged, nonetheless how does significantly lower interest rates affect HNZ's margins ? Were they not paying circa 5% on 3 year deposit money this time last year ?
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/76743/its-drive-grow-its-home-loan-business-bnz-now-offers-two-very-low-rates-leading-market
Interesting post in there under comments. Better to wait a few months for a 3.99% special, unthinkable it could get that low or is it ?

[winner69]

I sees nothin, nothin at all

Last time I looked the share price was 122 and it's all honky dory

[vorno]

I sees nothin, nothin at all

Last time I looked the share price was 122 and it's all honky dory

Indeed -
Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
Did gyre and gimble in the wabe...

[Longhaul]

Pop quiz time! What's the current yield at 1.19/1.20 or there abouts?

Thanks to all of you who are much more informed than me :)

[Jantar]

Pop quiz time! What's the current yield at 1.19/1.20 or there abouts?

Thanks to all of you who are much more informed than me :)
I'd take a wild stab at somewhere around 7.586%

[Beagle]

I sees nothin, nothin at all

Last time I looked the share price was 122 and it's all honky dory

http://wn.com/i_know_nothing

[winner69]

I sees nothin, nothin at all

Last time I looked the share price was 122 and it's all honky dory

I couldn't resist and had a look

And price was 117 .... phew still above the MA250 line .... just

Still in an uptrend ..... great news

[couta1]

I couldn't resist and had a look

And price was 117 .... phew still above the MA250 line .... just

Still in an uptrend ..... great news Just another hammered day on the market go and have a big sleep and come back on wednesday:cool:

[winner69]

Just another hammered day on the market go and have a big sleep and come back on wednesday:cool:

I was thinking about the 5 years 0n a deserted island with no internet .... come back and see HNZ at $4 and $1.17 would not even be remembered

ANd an island with no ostriches either

[neyney2010]

dunno y the fuk I got back in at 1.20

[couta1]

dunno y the fuk I got back in at 1.20
Yeah I'm asking myself the same question back in at 1.21 should have waited aye.

[neyney2010]

getting a bit fed up with shares at the mo. AIR hasn't got back to 3 bucks. this lil ****e is going downhill seems like. seriously thinking of pulling everything out and go into SKC. most likely Baccarat or Caribbean Stud (or whatever they call it here)

[winner69]

The 5th February was nearly 6 months ago .... almost half a year ago

That was when HNZ was $1.41 - it's down 17% since then - could say an annualised rate of 35% pa .... goodness gracious that's really bad

Seems a slow form of torture holding this at the moment .... hope is not really a strategy

But then the ones I have left only cost 35 cents so sort of OK if I look at it that way

[Crackity]

The 5th February was nearly 6 months ago .... almost half a year ago

That was when HNZ was $1.41 - it's down 17% since then - could say an annualised rate of 35% pa .... goodness gracious that's really bad

Seems a slow form of torture holding this at the moment .... hope is not really a strategy

But then the ones I have left only cost 35 cents so sort of OK if I look at it that way

Goodness gracious me Winner I can picture you typing that last sentence with a Muldoon-like smirk

[iceman]

getting a bit fed up with shares at the mo. AIR hasn't got back to 3 bucks. this lil ****e is going downhill seems like. seriously thinking of pulling everything out and go into SKC. most likely Baccarat or Caribbean Stud (or whatever they call it here)

Patience is a virtue in this game. So far this year HNZ has performed slightly better than AIR. I am a happy and patient holder on this one and have been for a long time with great SP appreciation. The great yield of fully imputed dividends makes the waiting for further SP growth easy.

[winner69]

Patience is a virtue in this game. So far this year HNZ has performed slightly better than AIR. I am a happy and patient holder on this one and have been for a long time with great SP appreciation. The great yield of fully imputed dividends makes the waiting for further SP growth easy.

Maybe slightly better mate but 112 at start of year to 117 now isn't that stellar is it?

[neyney2010]

Patience is a virtue in this game. So far this year HNZ has performed slightly better than AIR. I am a happy and patient holder on this one and have been for a long time with great SP appreciation. The great yield of fully imputed dividends makes the waiting for further SP growth easy.

But I am patient. Been waiting for 3 months.
And those freaking NEA as well. bastards...

[Leftfield]

But I am patient. Been waiting for 3 months.
….. bastards...

You guys should join the ATM & SUM club (mind you their runs could be over tomorrow if you do!! ) I guess nothing is certain.

[winner69]

You guys should join the ATM & SUM club (mind you their runs could be over tomorrow if you do!! ) I guess nothing is certain.

I am .....that's why HNZ is like torture at the moment

[iceman]

I am .....that's why HNZ is like torture at the moment

So am I. Long term in both, as well as HNZ. Agree Winner HNZ SP movement has not been stellar so far in 2015. But over the years, we have seen periods like this several times and HNZ is certainly not the only share on the NZX with a fairly lacklustre SP performance this year. While I agree with Roger that dairy slump is a concern, I see no reason to sell HNZ.
I should disclose though that I did reduce my holding by 1/3 at 131c not so long ago, but as part of a reduction in NZX portfolio and increase in cash position, rather than a particular concern about HNZ.

[winner69]

Hope it is a go figure day today

Like global markets down, Heartland soars - go figure

[couta1]

Hope it is a go figure day today

Like global markets down, Heartland soars - go figure More torture on the way winner just think of that Sally Army add you know that one that goes We're all in this together.

[RTM]

Its amazing how much easier it is to turn the computer off and mow the lawns, clean the car, wash the boat etc when the market is going down.
I'm quite a bit more productive actually.
Everyone. enjoy your day.

[vorno]

All this down-turn and yet what price did the director(s) increase their hold at? One twenty something?
Either way 5-10% drop means peanuts for em'

[couta1]

All this down-turn and yet what price did the director(s) increase their hold at? One twenty something?
Either way 5-10% drop means peanuts for em' That would be $1.31.

[winner69]

Broken below the 250MA line

No worries holding above the 300MA line though

The 500MA is about 102 so a bit of a way to go yet to worry

[couta1]

Broken below the 250MA line

No worries holding above the 300MA line though
You love your squiggly lines aye winner I lost view of some of mine as they headed below the chart axis on certain stocks:eek2:

[winner69]

You love your squiggly lines aye winner I lost view of some of mine as they headed below the chart axis on certain stocks:eek2:

That's sad couta

Lesson ....always use charts where 0 (zilch) is on the axis

That way you know how much to go

[neyney2010]

It's broken my 1MA line.
Still kicking myself not to drink and buy downtrending stocks.

Will keep topping up @$1.10, $1.05, $1.00, and $0.90 (next month)

[Hoop]

It's broken my 1MA line.
Still kicking myself not to drink and buy downtrending stocks.

Will keep topping up @$1.10, $1.05, $1.00, and $0.90 (next month)
Hmmm..If you are so convinced HNZ is in a downtrend (which it is) and will reach $0.90, why not just wait until they're $0.90 then top up

[winner69]

Hmmm..If you are so convinced HNZ is in a downtrend and will reach $0.90, why not just wait until they're $0.90 then top up

More profitable to sell NOW and then buy at 90 cents

[Beagle]

Broken below the 250MA line

No worries holding above the 300MA line though

The 500MA is about 102 so a bit of a way to go yet to worry

Technical analysis is one thing and I absolutely agree that a clear break of the 200 day MA should be serious cause for concern as a separate issue all of itself but for my money I always use TA in combination with fundamental analysis and most of you will be well aware I have voiced my concerns on several occasions regarding the veracity of some of the new products and lending methodologies than HNZ have recently introduced, (I finance, harmony loans, lending on no / low deposit on Holdens to name the main three).

That HNZ appear to be targeting the unsecured consumer market and dairy as two key areas for growth as stated in their half year report released earlier this year, is something I have found profoundly concerning and lead to my exit from the stock in tandem with my concerns surrounding the extremely serious collapse of the dairy price. Given my concerns regarding new product roll-out and Harmoney's initial losses, Is it a coincidence that the director in charge of new product development has now resigned / was pushed ?...perhaps my concerns have / are echoed in the boardroom ?...you decide for yourselves.

For my money if I want to invest in a finance company targeting unsecured loans, (I don't), that's what I'd do and if I want to invest in a quality bank with conservative lending policies, (I do but are there any left ?), that's what I'd do. HNZ is a hybrid of both and in my view will inevitably suffer the inherent consequences of a cooling economy with substantial labour force redundancies affecting its unsecured and poorly secured loans as well as specific losses attributable to especially problematic area's like dairy / sharemilking, as will the other banks for that matter. There is simply no plausible way sharemilkers in particular can meet their loan obligations with the dairy pay-out starting with a 3 handle, (that's where I see it going) in FY16.

To their credit the BNZ are running survivability workshops, (there's some other name for them I forget), teaching dairy farmers how to survive this crisis...I can't help wonder how proactive HNZ are in working with their dairy customers...maybe someone should contact the company and get some comfort for other shareholders around how they're managing the dairy issue ?

[neyney2010]

Hmmm..If you are so convinced HNZ is in a downtrend and will reach $0.90, why not just wait until they're $0.90 then top up

Hoop, are you saying I'm not being logical with my thinking whilst drinking ?

[sb9]

Where's our good friend percy these days..haven't seen much posts from in past few days...

[Crackity]

Just done the sums and if if sell 30% of what I have left the rest will be FREE

Won't need to worry about 300MA and 500MA lines then

sell 31% and that's the next few years short blacks as well.....

[Hoop]

Hoop, are you saying I'm not being logical with my thinking whilst drinking ?
"....wait until they're $0.90 then top up." I mean't your glass :D

[vin]

fuuuuu :(

Bring back the happy days of $1.41.. The SP of stocks reflects this rubbish weather. At least ATM, SCL & THL looking bright-ish!

[Hoop]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/HNZ%2024072015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/HNZ%2024072015.png.html)

[vin]

^ Can you please explain what that graph is telling you? Excuse my ignorance

[neyney2010]

^ Can you please explain what that graph is telling you? Excuse my ignorance

the graphs explains clearly that we are fuked.

[neyney2010]

the next support is about 20 cents

[couta1]

^ Can you please explain what that graph is telling you? Excuse my ignorance
Today's intraday trading has broken a major support level and we're about to all sing that classic Tom Petty number Free falling. PS-We started singing it yesterday over at MRP.

[winner69]

Today's intraday trading has broken a major support level and we're about to all sing that classic Tom Petty number Free falling. PS-We started singing it yesterday over at MRP.

It's all about love couta

Nobody loves HNZ no more

Must be a good song reflecting that

[couta1]

It's all about love couta

Nobody loves HNZ no more

Must be a good song reflecting that Try Air Supply's, I'm all outa love.

[IAK]

the graphs explains clearly that we are fuked.

Ha ha crack up.

Disc. Bailed at $1.21 a few weeks ago.

[neyney2010]

Ok that 90c order is me

[winner69]

I sees nothing, nothing

[couta1]

I sees nothing, nothing
Tom Petty would be proud of this stock today:eek2:

[winner69]

Just as well HNZ is a long term hold, bottom drawer stuff with a solid divie.

Must be a song about that couta?

[winner69]

NTA about 87 cents, lower than before seniors acquisition. What's up?

Even share price at $1.12 is 1.3 times NTA - not too shabby

[BlackPeter]

posted 9/6/2014:

hmm - even the optimistic analysts set their 12 month target below $1 (well - just). Mean target is 96 cts. Based on this and my cloudy crystal ball my bet for HNZ breaking through the $1 mark would be August 11, 2015 ;). However - don't take my word for it and do your own research ... linear extrapolations of random processes are normally wrong!
Interesting - maybe my (at that stage not quite serious) forecast turns true after all? Only thing is - I didn't thought in June 2014 that HNZ might break in August 2015 through the $1 mark coming from above :scared:

[Beagle]

NTA about 87 cents, lower than before seniors acquisition. What's up?Even share price at $1.12 is 1.3 times NTA - not too shabby

IMO its now pretty clear they paid too much for goodwill. The oldies are very risk averse when it comes to taking on more debt...some of us in our 50's feel the same way :)

[macduffy]

HNZ is just tracking down with the Aussie banks. All are down significantly in recent months in response to a less optimistic ( more pessimistic?) economic outlook and tighter capital controls.

[Beagle]

HNZ is just tracking down with the Aussie banks. All are down significantly in recent months in response to a less optimistic ( more pessimistic?) economic outlook and tighter capital controls.

Hoop, someone else ? would you mind generating a chart of the three listed here for the last 6 months, HNZ, Westpac and ANZ and lets have a look at that claim. ?

[stoploss]

hoop, someone else ? Would you mind generating a chart of the three listed here for the last 6 months, hnz, westpac and anz and lets have a look at that claim. ?

hnz 1.19>1.14
anz 32.55>32.12
wbc 34.60>34.25

[couta1]

Just as well HNZ is a long term hold, bottom drawer stuff with a solid divie.

Must be a song about that couta?
Something like the Long Run by the Eagles would Sum it up or perhaps changing that Green Door song to The Green Drawer. PS-My Turners shares are down 20% but my HNZ only 6% so all good.

[Xerof]

In the spirit of disclosing as it happens, instead of weeks after the event, I bought some at 113 about 10 mins ago. Still only a small position overall......and the only bank/fin coy I have

[winner69]

Hoop, someone else ? would you mind generating a chart of the three listed here for the last 6 months, HNZ, Westpac and ANZ and lets have a look at that claim. ?

D
Hope this works

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=6m&s=HNZ.NZ&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=Anz.nz%2CWBC.NZ%2C+&ql=1


HNZ seems to have down more

Even on 3 months as well

[cheeky]

A few people were still trying to get out in pre-close [50,000 at or below $1.10]. Large chunk of the support at $1.13 has been taken as a result.
Currently leaves a 3c spread with 50,000 on offer at $1.16. What's in store for tomorrow?

[percy]

In the spirit of disclosing as it happens, instead of weeks after the event, I bought some at 113 about 10 mins ago. Still only a small position overall......and the only bank/fin coy I have

I also brought today at $1.13 at the close.

[Balance]

A few people were still trying to get out in pre-close [50,000 at or below $1.10]. Large chunk of the support at $1.13 has been taken as a result.
Currently leaves a 3c spread with 50,000 on offer at $1.16. What's in store for tomorrow?

Mirroring the movements of the Australian banks. No big hurry to invest until interest rates stabilizes.

[Baa_Baa]

It seemed almost as if today was choreographed with recent price performance and off the back of most global markets reacting to Shanghai turning to custard.

Seems like a capitulation from a few holders, maybe some locking in profits from earlier times, others sniping what looks like a good deal. Fact is though, today the SP touched down on the 100% retrace of the break-up move beginning Jan12 at $1.12. That while dramatic, was only on about 25% more volume than the recent average, so it's not a wholesale get the * out of here type sell off.

Tomorrow will be telling, my simple chart has numerous resistance lines above which were previously support, but more interesting is the trend line support below at 1.10 (only nominal support I'd say) and the horizontal support of the previous move at 1.04 (strong, hopefully).

Surely it won't go there will it? It is a banking stock though, so I guess it just ebbs and flows from time to time along with global fiscal confidence, regardless of underlying fundamentals.

So ending where I started, keep an eye on Shanghai this evening and what flow on effect it has on the european and in particular the USA markets.

[Xerof]

It's there or thereabouts Baa Baa. To me it's already come off 'expensive' to a fairer price level. It may well yet get cheaper, but I'll add a few more to my very modest holding if it does. My view is there is an overhang of stock that came from Q into not only insto, but also retail hands, mainly the types that get a call from the distributing broker. Plenty of bravado usually surrounds these sort of trade placements done in the evenings before market open. Sometimes pays off, sometimes not - seems this one was astutely placed by the seller (the NZR placement, as another example, was priced much better for the buyers)

JMT's

[noodles]

It's there or thereabouts Baa Baa. To me it's already come off 'expensive' to a fairer price level. It may well yet get cheaper, but I'll add a few more to my very modest holding if it does. My view is there is an overhang of stock that came from Q into not only insto, but also retail hands, mainly the types that get a call from the distributing broker. Plenty of bravado usually surrounds these sort of trade placements done in the evenings before market open. Sometimes pays off, sometimes not - seems this one was astutely placed by the seller (the NZR placement, as another example, was priced much better for the buyers)

JMT's
My broker called me for the HNZ placement out of courtesy as I had expressed interest in the placement prior. He was almost apologetic that the price was so high. There was certainly no sell job on me.

So I think you may well be correct about the Quadrant selldown affecting the shareprice. If this is in fact the reason for the decline, it may be a great buying opportunity.

I look forward to the outlook statement when the full year results are announced.

[Beagle]

D
Hope this works

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=6m&s=HNZ.NZ&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=Anz.nz%2CWBC.NZ%2C+&ql=1


HNZ seems to have down more

Even on 3 months as well

Thanks winner, pretty telling chart for the bank that's supposed to be the safest with by far the highest capital. ratio isn't it and eagle eye'd observers will note that the Aussie banks have made something of a muted recovery since early June whereas on the other hand as the dairy custard news has really started to hit the fan in June and July HNZ shares have gone down the toilet with the dairy price. Others may think i'm drawing a long bow especially given the aussie banks also have massive exposure to dairy but how is it that HNZ shares have declined so hard contemporaneously with the dairy price collapse ?...coincidence or a sign of systemic forthcoming issues for those lenders specialising in loans where the herd itself is the primary security ?, you be the judge. Maybe the fact that dairy farm values to date have held up pretty well means investors in other banks, (at least so far), are less concerned with the potential for loan loses when there's farmland involved ?
Disc, still don't own any and not intending too acquire any, anytime soon.

[Joshuatree]

Try the 1 year chart;tells a different story; quite remarkable in fact. Still holding.

[Beagle]

Speaking of technical analysis generally, as we all know one of the most recognised methodologies is the 200 day moving average and a clear breech of same being recognised as a change in fundamental underlying trend line for the company. I find it curious that so many who were extoling the virtues of this well recognised technical analysis tool when this decline started to take hold (for as long as HNZ's price was above that indicator), now seem so ready to abandon that methodology and revert to their own beliefs surrounding their own personal perception of fundamental value. Go figure ?

[macduffy]

I wouldn't try to take my comparison of HNZ's shareprice performance with that of the other banks, too far beyond the macro issues of economic outlook and capital requirements. Remember that the Aussie banks' NZ business is only around 10% of their total business and that it is the parent company's shares that are being traded on the NZX - ANZ Group, not ANZ NZ; WBC, not Westpac NZ; NAB, not BNZ. Dairy farmers aren't a big part of the Aust economy and exposure to the industry in NZ, although significant for the local operations, aren't a major part of the Aust banks' overall lending.

[Master98]

methinks current HNZ share price is more related to FA than TA, I have three main concerns about HNZ: dairy section, harmoney lending, and reverse mortgage thats why i still sit on sideline after sold my HNZ shares at $1.4, i wait for HNZ give any clear indication.

[couta1]

Latest article in the Herald indicates there is considerable interest from overseas buyers to purchase dairy farms in NZ so HNZ are not likely to lose a lot in any fire sales, it will be the individual farmer who takes the hit after the bank has collected its share.

[Beagle]

Latest article in the Herald indicates there is considerable interest from overseas buyers to purchase dairy farms in NZ so HNZ are not likely to lose a lot in any fire sales, it will be the individual farmer who takes the hit after the bank has collected its share.

The main issue for HNZ mate is that they do a lot of lending to sharemilkers using the value of the herd as their sole security. Dairy cows liquidated at the freezing works can generate as little as $700 net return which isn't much good if HNZ have been lending based on 75% of the herd acquisition cost when it was $2,000+ a head is it ! The other issue peculiar to sharemilkers who as most of you know get 50% of the pathetic fontera pay-out is they have no ability to manage their cash flow through deferring maintenance on fencing, roads and tracks, plant and machinery acquisition deferral e.t.c. because that's not generally part of their deal, that deferral ability is something that's in the farm owners hand i.e the other side of the sharemilking partnership.

At least with normal dairy lending like BNZ, WBC and ANZ are doing they have the land as the primary security, (which at this point is holding up quite surprisingly well) and a normal dairy operation has a number of ways to massage their cash flow only some of which are mentioned above. I think its pretty clear from the relative SP graphs that HNZ are more exposed to this downturn than the other banks with proper first mortgage security over farmland.

[Hoop]

Speaking of technical analysis generally, as we all know one of the most recognised methodologies is the 200 day moving average and a clear breech of same being recognised as a change in fundamental underlying trend line for the company. I find it curious that so many who were extoling the virtues of this well recognised technical analysis tool when this decline started to take hold (for as long as HNZ's price was above that indicator), now seem so ready to abandon that methodology and revert to their own beliefs surrounding their own personal perception of fundamental value. Go figure ?
Agree...Just to add my lengthy 2c worth...

The MA200 indicator is just one tool of many for long term investors. It's a lagging indicator and triggers a sell signal often well after a downtrend pattern is already established, so many investors see this tool as irrelevant...My yesterdays chart (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8425-Heartland-New-Zealand-Ltd-%28HNZ%29/page379) shows the EMA200 (similar to MA200)recently being whipsawed, this is something that an less experienced TA disciplined long investors would hate and tempt that person to abandon the TA methodology...
However that person should see the MA200 for what it's purposes are and what it indicates..although the price/ma200 break is significant, its the slope of the ma200 line which matters.
A rule of thumb and one which unfortunately media thinks its Gospel is when the ma200 slope turns downwards it signals that this price weakness is not a bull market correction event but a cyclic reversal to Bear cycle.
Notice on my chart (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8425-Heartland-New-Zealand-Ltd-%28HNZ%29/page379) that the quicker and more sensitive EMA50 and EMA100 line slopes have developed a downtrend and for HNZ to get a downtrend ma200 slope more price decreases are needed....so HNZ not yet signaling a Bear cycle under the media's gospel.
Yes when the MA200 slopes downwards it could reflect a bear market cycle but when using any indicator there needs to be confirmations..

Other methods to confirm are:
1...a drop of >20%
2...The bull/bear support line is at 1.12 not marked on my chart.
3...many others

For the Optimists
My recent chart shows HNZ a pattern resembling a long term flagpole + the flag. Believe it or not this type of pattern is a bullish chart pattern..The pattern shows the irrational greed behaviour in the stampede to the top which quickly (fundamentally) overvalues the shareprice..This orderly downtrend result is investor rational reality being slightly more powerful than the irrational investors in denial and this rationality will bring the market back to where Mr Market now thinks it should be...perhaps we are nearly there at this level with the bull/bear line in sight at 1.12 ..perhaps not....who knows??...

TAers always tell investors 2 basic things... TA can not predict the future with certainty and "DO NOT rely on one indicator, or a single rule"...TA can be complex and incorporate many investor strategies, each with a set of tools, each with different entry and exit points when buying/selling shares. Because there are many TA strategy options there is often no right or wrong answer (TAers often at odds with each other) as those seemingly simple squiggly lines could just be a few tools in the toolbox of an very experienced TA investor using a very complex investment strategy.

However there are many much simpler/basic strategies which work reasonably well..The one I post on Sharetrader is a medium term "be patient and only act on confirming signals" strategy and is easy to understand and use.

For those investors that have patience weaknesses in their mental make up..my posted TA discipline would not be suited to them...Their better TA Strategy would be "Preemptive buy action at support areas" ...word of caution for those entering into HNZ now...preempting the market's future action is very risky....if using this risky strategy you must use the the "minimising risk" tools that comes with this disciplined strategy ... the most important of these tools is applying automatic stop/loss set just below the bull/bear line or atm lines or any other method such as analysing depth tables used by nonTAers...Automatic is underlined because its a must for most people...do not rely on your own judgements unless your mental strengths include abiding to rigid disciplines and/or highly experienced very successful investor with extremely good/proven "gut feel".

[winner69]

Hoop, I gave up on this flag poke thing

Yes a pretty flag pole and flag shown recently. But to form a new pattern wouldn't the flag pole need a pretty quick spurt up to 160?

I don't think that will happen ..so gave the hope of a new flag pole away.

Reverted to the I sees nothin, nothin approach ....especially useful with rose tinted glasses

[Beagle]

Hoop, I gave up on this flag poke thing

Yes a pretty flag pole and flag shown recently. But to form a new pattern wouldn't the flag pole need a pretty quick spurt up to 160?

I don't think that will happen ..so gave the hope of a new flag pole away.

Reverted to the I sees nothin, nothin approach ....especially useful with rose tinted glasses

Those with their heads in the sand don't need those either :D

[winner69]

Those with their heads in the sand don't need those either :D

Cool, an ostrich wearing rosé tinted glasses. Really cool

Wonder if some halos are losing some of their lustre as well. Good book that Halo Effect

[winner69]

Being Head of Strategic & Product Development I think its not unreasonable to infer there is some tension around the board table with how the new loan products are performing and / or some directors wanting a more traditional approach and / or potential disagreement with further new product initiatives.

As a separate matter it is very interesting to note the SP dropped in a meaningful way and on bigger than normal volume before this announcement came out. That in itself is not a good look as it suggests insiders are very disappointed with this key intellectual loss.

I been thinking about this Roger and I think you have raised a good point.

I have a feeling that Jonas wasn't pushing some of these new 'niches'. Maybe he was unhappy with the way HNZ was heading.

The announcement from HNZ on his leaving was nice enough but not written in a 'we are really sad to see him go and he will be a huge loss' sort of way

Interesting chatter in the pubs last week

[Beagle]

I been thinking about this Roger and I think you have raised a good point.

I have a feeling that Jonas wasn't pushing some of these new 'niches'. Maybe he was unhappy with the way HNZ was heading.

The announcement from HNZ on his leaving was nice enough but not written in a 'we are really sad to see him go and he will be a huge loss' sort of way

Interesting chatter in the pubs last week

Yeah mate I definitely picked up on that and I think this is potentially an interesting lead indicator for a possible dramatic rise in loan delinquencies from recent new product initiatives. I've seen FAR more favourably written goodbye's than that. Written in a way where they said the minimum they could to show the minimum required respect. No way they parted on really happy terms, in my opinion.
The fact he left at all should be a concern for thinking investors. I'd speculate they've lent >$100m through Harmoney now and what's the bet the loan collection process and delinquency rate is anything but harmonious :eek2:

[Harvey Specter]

I'd speculate they've lent >$100m through Harmoney now and what's the bet the loan collection process and delinquency rate is anything but harmonious :eek2:Pretty sure the whole platform is under $100m (which was their 12m target) so I think you are way off!

NBR paywall: http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/harmoney-suffers-first-year-loss-says-its-still-track-cs-p-176109


In the 11 months since starting up, Harmoney has lent more than $85 million, he says. Harmoney had previously committed to lend $100 million in its first year.I think that 11 months doesn't refer to their financial year end as they only started loans in August (?)

[Beagle]

Well there's also all their new unsecured consumer lending through their own www.ifinance.co.nz site too. Have you heard their radio advertisements targeting existing customers of Noel Leeming and Harvey Norman who haven't paid off their latest consumer gadget within the interest free period. People who buy the latest gadget on interest free terms and make the minimum payments such that their gadget that's almost worthless 36 months later but still isn't paid off don't strike me as having the most credit worthy profile and yet that's exactly the type of consumer HNZ is targeting with their unsecured loans ! Bank or really nothing more than a finance company "in drag" ?, you folks decide for yourselves.

[Hoop]

Hoop, I gave up on this flag poke thing

Yes a pretty flag pole and flag shown recently. But to form a new pattern wouldn't the flag pole need a pretty quick spurt up to 160?

I don't think that will happen ..so gave the hope of a new flag pole away.

Reverted to the I sees nothin, nothin approach ....especially useful with rose tinted glasses


Logic Question... Why did you buy rose tinted glasses in the first place :).
Re : flagpole and flag
A bullish pattern is one with a better probability of breaking upwards than downwards..If you look at my chart there's a big risk that the flag break could be downwards not up. It's broken down at the moment but within the margin of error... Remember with limit boundary patterns the price trades within it reaching the boundaries at both ends...during a very long pattern as this HNZ pattern is you can watch for warning signs..On my chart there is a warning sign where the previous high point did not reach the top boundary of the pattern it failed creating a possible bottom breakout warning. On the positive side there is however a solid support line at 1.12 (confirmed on the HNZ depth table)..so at 114 /115 trading today this flag break thing may be a mirage as the price may still be within the margin of error of the flag.

HNZ flagpole flag pattern has lasted too long (normally a few weeks) Bulkowski is more pessimistic about overtimed patterns therefore HNZ flag pattern would not meet the criteria as a flag pattern in his statistical analysis....so for HNZ flag pattern we don't know the probabilities...

Edit....Spurting up to 160?.....tight flag patterns with upward breakouts reach 40%, 50% of the time..loose flags patterns Average rise 23% but only 54% break upwards above the flag pattern....HNZ with looser than that guidelines would probability be a bit less but still be classed as a bullish pattern ....not great odds, not terrible neither.

What would be the chances of this rise happening to a BBB Fitch rated NZ Bank in these present economic times??

Investment grade


AAA : the best quality companies, reliable and stable
AA : quality companies, a bit higher risk than AAA
A : economic situation can affect finance
BBB : medium class companies, which are satisfactory at the moment

Non-investment grade



BB : more prone to changes in the economy
B : financial situation varies noticeably
CCC : currently vulnerable and dependent on favorable economic conditions to meet its commitments
CC : highly vulnerable, very speculative bonds
C : highly vulnerable, perhaps in bankruptcy or in arrears but still continuing to pay out on obligations
D : has defaulted on obligations and Fitch believes that it will generally default on most or all obligations
NR : not publicly rated

[Joshuatree]

Good updated research from CRAIGS on Heartland today.
Upgrade to BUY
Exposure to dairy re only 7%. Downside risk real impact overplayed
FY16CETI forecast of 12.3%
Attractive DPS yields ,net +6% are sustainable etc etc.

Good solid research amongst all the"noise" on here.

[Harvey Specter]

Good updated research from CRAIGS on Heartland today.
Upgrade to BUYTarget price?

[winner69]

Good updated research from CRAIGS on Heartland today.
Upgrade to BUY
Exposure to dairy re only 7%. Downside risk real impact overplayed
FY16CETI forecast of 12.3%
Attractive DPS yields ,net +6% are sustainable etc etc.

Good solid research amongst all the"noise" on here.

Please Joshua, what's CETI

[percy]

Good updated research from CRAIGS on Heartland today.
Upgrade to BUY
Exposure to dairy re only 7%. Downside risk real impact overplayed
FY16CETI forecast of 12.3%
Attractive DPS yields ,net +6% are sustainable etc etc.

Good solid research amongst all the"noise" on here.

HNZ's exposure to dairying is less than half the other banks 15%.......
Michael Jonas is not being replaced.
Target price $1.30 which is half way between my $1,25 and $1.35 value.
Confirms what Xerof and I have been posting.

[macduffy]

HNZ's exposure to dairying is less than half the other banks 15%.......
Michael Jonas is not being replaced.
Target price $1.30 which is half way between my $1,25 and $1.35 value.
Confirms what Xerof and I have been posting.

As other banks' NZ business is about 10% of their total, their exposure to NZ dairying, while much bigger in absolute dollar terms, is about 1.5% of their total business. (15% of the 10%).

[Baa_Baa]

HNZ's exposure to dairying is less than half the other banks 15%.......
Michael Jonas is not being replaced.
... snip

Are those two facts also in the Craigs research percy? If not where can I verify them please.
TIA.

[Beagle]

As other banks' NZ business is about 10% of their total, their exposure to NZ dairying, while much bigger in absolute dollar terms, is about 1.5% of their total business. (15% of the 10%).

Exactly and the vast majority of that's secured by first registered mortgage security over farmland and buildings which have held up in value quite well.

OTOH an awful lot of HNZ's lending to the dairy sector 7% of circa $3b = $210m is secured only by way of the herd itself, (which could prove awfully hard to liquidate in a complete dairy meltdown), as they're big on stock financing and sharemilker financing. If a significant percentage of that herd financing goes pear shaped then watch out for a major impact on FY16 and FY17 earnings.

I wonder if Craigs have actually bothered to differentiate between the two different types of dairy lending and their relative risk profile ?

[percy]

As other banks' NZ business is about 10% of their total, their exposure to NZ dairying, while much bigger in absolute dollar terms, is about 1.5% of their total business. (15% of the 10%).

Correct.
ANZ has reduced their exposure at 31/3/2015 to $11.3 billion,so as you point out it is only a small % of their total business.
However, if you read this thread, I have been ridiculed for saying HNZ did not have the same exposure as the Aussie banks .
Like you, I am a great admirer of the Australian banks, and have only been doing comparisons, so people have a true picture that HNZ's dairying exposure has been low.
Yes the slow down in dairying will affect all NZ,but will have very little effect on HNZ's profit.

[winner69]

Jonas not being replaced

That should add $1 million to the bottom line

Good eh

[Joshuatree]

Yep
"HNZ’s balance sheet is in a strong position. The non-replacement of the Head of Strategic &Product Development’s position suggests less focus will be placed on value-accretiveacquisitions and more attention will be on organic growth. The latter is less capital intensive and lower risk"

[Beagle]

HNZ's approach to dairy customers that are presently going backwards is to simply keep supporting their clients through this...which of course implies that there is some light at the end of this very long and very dark dairy tunnel but what if like Iron Ore being depressed for many years we see the same pattern replicated with dairy ? How many years do they keep throwing good money at sharemilkers and farmers with unviable operations at the present low price, let alone if it falls further ? Lets all try and forget that Fitch a few months ago were warning regarding credit rating with dairy problems shall we ?
I see nothing, nothing at all. http://www.shutterstock.com/s/ostrich+head+in+sand/search.html?page=1&inline=217847644

[winner69]

So Target of $1.30 is unchanged from several months ago.

So the 12 month target has been stretched to a 18 month target

Hardly stellar is it?

What's CETI anyway

[winner69]

Yep
"HNZ’s balance sheet is in a strong position. The non-replacement of the Head of Strategic &Product Development’s position suggests less focus will be placed on value-accretiveacquisitions and more attention will be on organic growth. The latter is less capital intensive and lower risk"

Did he get the sack then because the last acquisition hasn't been 'value accretive'

Just a thought

But that $1 million saved can shore the profits up from here on in eh

[winner69]

One good thing is that Craig's have many believers and a BUY on Heartland should give the share price a boost over the next day or two.

[Beagle]

Did he get the sack then because the last acquisition hasn't been 'value accretive'

Just a thought

But that $1 million saved can shore the profits up from here on in eh

Might be value accretive after all :lol:

[Xerof]

One good thing is that Craig's have many believers and a BUY on Heartland should give the share price a boost over the next day or two. A slanderous post re Craigs was taken down and the writer appears to have copped a ban. Three days without down ramping should also boost the price Winner:lol::lol:

[couta1]

One good thing is that Craig's have many believers and a BUY on Heartland should give the share price a boost over the next day or two.
Your be hoping they are not at all accurate with valuation of Sum at $3.71 aye (12 month target) actually come to think of it Roger likes Craig's valuation on that stock? What am I missing here? :cool:

[K1W1G0LD]

Your be hoping they are not at all accurate with valuation of Sum at $3.71 aye (12 month target) actually come to think of it Roger likes Craig's valuation on that stock? What am I missing here? :cool:

Stern lectures about HNZ foolish lending policies and Ostriches with their heads in the sand!

[winner69]

A slanderous post re Craigs was taken down and the writer appears to have copped a ban. Three days without down ramping should also boost the price Winner:lol::lol:


Seems to have been a lot of action on and off the field today Xerof

I looking forward to seeing the full year accounts to see where I got it all wrong with my sums.

My forecast was FY15 NPAT of $51.5 as belwo picture. There's a whole lot of workings feeding into the final number I came up. Most were based on what was said in various announcements, presentations and at the ASM - so it was really only putting numbers to what was being said.

As it looks like it is only going to be $49.2m I got it wrong big time - thus keen to see where

Hope its not bad debts

[nextbigthing]

Winner, CETI stands for Creative Earnings Though Investment

[Xerof]

I saw it mentioned in Fawlty Towers... Episode 3, subtitled BASEL111, and the Colonel mumbled something to Basil about COMMON EQUITY TIER 1

Winner, They've been sayin' top of 46/49 range for months haven't they? Percy will tell you they do as they say

[winner69]

I saw it mentioned in Fawlty Towers... Episode 3, subtitled BASEL111, and the Colonel mumbled something to Basil about COMMON EQUITY TIER 1

Winner, They've been sayin' top of 46/49 range for months haven't they? Percy will tell you they do as they say

Ah so there was a 1 at the end and not an I

Might have twigged if I had noticed that in Joshua's post

Thanks

[janner]

Winner, CETI stands for Creative Earnings Though Investment

Though... or ... Through ??

[karen1]

Percy has been banned?????

I joined ST several years ago, after reading various threads for many months, by which time I had assessed there were some very worthwhile posts which helped me a great deal, from people genuinely sharing their knowledge, which was, and still is, far superior to mine. In my first few years, I learned much, and learnt to take on board good knowledge from the likes of Percy, to name but one of about a dozen. Of that dozen, there are only about 4 left whom I still consider genuine posters.

Sadly, there are many more members now who seem only too happy to be as disruptive, disrespectful, in fact downright rude, as they can, without thought to the damage they cause. These types tend to jump the fence, depending on how a share price is rising, or falling. Posters who doggedly continue for years to put down a company or management are a comparatively recent phenomenon, and I have long since stopped reading some posters who do this. They remind me too much of talkback radio, which I had forced on me in a workplace years ago. I thought they were just a bunch of folk who liked the sound of their own voice, and kept banging away daily telling the same old story.

What concerns me greatly is that for any newcomers reading various threads, if they have little investor experience, they could well get burned badly by reading/following the freely given ‘advice’ given by a number posters, which is often without foundation. Being a prolific poster does not necessarily mean one knows all, but there is a real danger that someone from the outside looking in may take it that that is the case.

The ‘banned’ issue seems like a joke to me. If someone is banned, it might suggest that something heinous has been done, and therefore the ban may extend to a month or more, but normally when I think of a ban I think of it as permanent.

Having said that, I am already extremely disappointed that percy has received one of these infamous bans, and I would be even more so if he were not to return. He, along with a very few others, brings a measured voice of experience and reason to ST.

I just cannot believe that Percy would have posted something worthy of a ban. He has for some months now undergone some very unpleasant attacks by one poster in particular, and has stood up well to that, and not retaliated, although I would have thought he has every right to.

Perhaps when a member is banned the rest of the members should be given an explanation as to why, without the need to divulge details. It might save speculation.

I am very clear on one thing, Share Trader is not the wonderful sharing/learning platform it once was, which is a real shame.

Percy, I hope your ban is not permanent, and that you will return to continue to help people.

[RGR367]

First of all, how do you get to know or learn when someone is banned? Secondly, what would constitute a ban? And thirdly, yeah, what did Percy post to get banned?

[macduffy]

Well said, Karen!

I agree whole heartedly!

[kizame]

I also cannot understand why anyone would be banned from this site,bloody rediculous in my opinion,There have been more than just Percy that have disappeared from this site that I really enjoyed reading and gaining from their knowledge.
In my opinion we need to encourage not ban posters from this site no matter how sharp their comments or views.

SO... Let the So-called mod come on here and explain why so many people get banned on here,or ban me for calling you a ****ER!

[evander]

Well said Karen1, don't stop posting Percy.

[Xerof]

Oooooooh, thats tempting fate - bye bye kizame:D

[777]

Bring back Percy.

[Xerof]

Yes, bit of a shock really - didn't see anything controversial since I last conversed with percy this afternoon, but have been avidly reading 'practical beekeeping in New Zealand' for the past hour or so, so may have missed an uncharacteristic outburst perhaps?

don't fret, he will return

[Joshuatree]

Tut tut come on folks it happens to the best of us/many of us sooner or later. For better or worse; i found it for the better in my case. Take it on the chin, put egos aside, be honest with self, grow a little and MOST OF ALL , COME BACK, get back on the horse, be a better rider not stuck in a victim mentality; its all part of the Growth and Unfolding opps one has in life.Especially when you realise that that is more important then making money,or trying to influence others which is plain weird.
Welcome back already folks ; if you can laugh at things and ,like some of the local community and look at the wo/man in the mirror, in the eye.

[Jay]

First of all, how do you get to know or learn when someone is banned? Secondly, what would constitute a ban? And thirdly, yeah, what did Percy post to get banned?

Have the same questions -
I thought Percy used Craigs, why would he say anything disparaging about them

[Xerof]

No no, not percy. Roger went first, and I saw his post, since removed. Had naughty bits in it

[Joshuatree]

First of all, how do you get to know or learn when someone is banned? Secondly, what would constitute a ban? And thirdly, yeah, what did Percy post to get banned?

Look under a posters name on the last thread they posted and you will see "banned" usually 3 days .

[couta1]

A Forum by definition is simply a sharing of ideas and opinions with or without research included and as long as respect is shown to fellow posters then surely everyone has equal right to post. An exclusive group where only a handful of posters have the kudos to post with any authority is not a forum but sounds more like an exclusive old boys/girls club. There's always something to learn from someone else's journey whether positive or negative. PS-Percy& Roger will be back after their 3-7 day bans.

[noodles]

Bring back Percy.
Totally agree. Percy has provided so much wisdom to this forum.

He does the hard yards as well. One of the few posters who actually calls management to get the low down on issues that are troubling him. And now today we have learnt that his views are aligned with the Craigs analyst (who also calls management). No surprises there!