HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner69]

Judging by the evidence of what you posted last week mate its too late and they've already fallen. I think with an average of 61% LVR HNZ have plenty of exposure to the most at risk sector of the industry. Upcoming sales will only reflect what we already know, that being that the massive disconnect between land prices and what that land is actually capable of producing in terms of cash flow has to close. Personally I think an astute buyer of a dairy farm right at the minute would be looking at bidding somewhere in the mid to high $2m range for an operation at its peak that would have been $4m. Just my opinion by why would any astute businessman right at the minute pay any more knowing its never been more of a buyers market ? We're in for a really meaningful correction in dairy farm prices, of that I am very sure. How much of that translates into real losses to HNZ, is very hard to quantify but history tells us that when times are really tough, (e.g. GFC), finance companies invariably underestimate their doubtful debt provisions, usually by a long way. I would have thought its crystal clear, all the risk to HNZ's FY16 forecast is too the downside. In terms of the point you've made mate, hopefully the board are well aware of there legal obligation to place the interests of shareholders ahead of anyone else. Thankfully the Fonterra loan thing buys some participants who are hopelessly unviable, at current pay-out level's, time to be helped to be managed out of the industry rather than be in a foreclosure position and therein probably lies a bit of relief for HNZ shareholders. Without the Fonterra loan thing the situation would be FAR worse.

Aren't farms valued by a simple rule of thumb with the milk price the main variable and to a certain extent interest rates. Other factors such as stocking rates and production rates pretty well fixed.

One could say that on that 'rule' if no money being made on milk the land is worthless as a dairy farm so we revert back to the average again eh ......which I would think is well below what some have paid recently.

Goodness knows what will happen when interest rates go up again

[Beagle]

Aren't farms valued by a simple rule of thumb with the milk price the main variable and to a certain extent interest rates. Other factors such as stocking rates and production rates pretty well fixed.

One could say that on that 'rule' if no money being made on milk the land is worthless as a dairy farm so we revert back to the average again eh ......which I would think is well below what some have paid recently.

Goodness knows what will happen when interest rates go up again

Yes my understanding is that dairy farms have been valued based on their annual production rate but with nobody really making any meaningful money, (even those who own and farm outright), and with farms having not changed in value much since the days of $8.00 kg, how do you value them now ? Who in their right mind would buy one now based on a valuation when these farms actually made good money ?

[winner69]

Yes my understanding is that dairy farms have been valued based on their annual production rate but with nobody really making any meaningful money, (even those who own and farm outright), and with farms having not changed in value much since the days of $8.00 kg, how do you value them now ? Who in their right mind would buy one now based on a valuation when these farms actually made good money ?

Roger, Dairy farm prices already on the wane

https://www.reinz.co.nz/shadomx/apps/fms/fmsdownload.cfm?file_uuid=81C09689-B63B-49D4-884B-1460E531636C&siteName=reinz

The REINZ Dairy Farm Price Index fell by 5.5% in the 3 months to June compared to the 3 months to May

[macduffy]

I would doubt that farms are valued on a month by month production value but rather on a longer term forecast average value. If current prices were thought to prevail longterm then dairy farms would be given away, right now. They aren't and won't.

:cool:

[nextbigthing]

history tells us that when times are really tough, (e.g. GFC), finance companies invariably underestimate their doubtful debt provisions, usually by a long way.

Roger, Winner etc, keep up the posts, I for one value these perspectives and thoughts.

Roger re the quote above, if you base it on a GFC situation then of course it's going to be bad, not just for HNZ!

[nextbigthing]

I would doubt that farms are valued on a month by month production value but rather on a longer term forecast average value. If current prices were thought to prevail longterm then dairy farms would be given away, right now. They aren't and won't.

:cool:

Exactly Macduffy.

The present value of all future revenue streams, plus or minus a bit for factors such as how easy it is to farm, location etc

[Beagle]

Roger, Dairy farm prices already on the wane

https://www.reinz.co.nz/shadomx/apps/fms/fmsdownload.cfm?file_uuid=81C09689-B63B-49D4-884B-1460E531636C&siteName=reinz

The REINZ Dairy Farm Price Index fell by 5.5% in the 3 months to June compared to the 3 months to May

Its interesting to note this dairy farm price fall was for data to the end of June, i.e before the custard really hit the fan with three latest, (all circa 10% falls, back to back) severe falls in the GDT auction result.
Hardly bodes well for future sales prices does it !
Thanks NBT - I'm sure it feels like a GFC MK2 for the dairy farmers :eek2:
OTOH for the sake of some balance Tony Alexander doesn't share my doom and gloom view, in fact sounds quite relaxed about the current slump...would be music to Percy's ears if I wasn't on his ignore list LOL
http://newsletters.bnz.co.nz/business-wire/2015/07/World-dairy-prices.html

[winner69]

Exactly Macduffy.

The present value of all future revenue streams, plus or minus a bit for factors such as how easy it is to farm, location etc

I remember reading a Massey paper a while ago about the difference in market and investment values of dairy farms.

In good times market values were significantly higher than investment values (prob not a surprise) but during dairy 'recessions' market values didn't drop that much below investment values.

Investment values of course used more average yields over a longer timeframe and appropriate cost of capital rates.

I thought it quite interesting.

Much the same as stocks being over and undervalued eh.

[nextbigthing]

According to the link below, only 25% of dairy farms are cash flow negative. And even then, they're eligible for support from Fonterra.

Storm in a teacup and time to back the truck up already?

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/741ce202/fonterra-overshoot-on-2015-advance-payment-worsens-2016-farmer-cash-flows.html

[winner69]

So 111 was a lower low in the current downtrend. Previous lower high was 121 so that immediate target to see if the good news etc is enough to break out of this downtrend (from 141)

OZ banks recovered yesterday afternoon. US markets up heaps overnight. Mike Hosking says the worlds all OK. - today will be a big day for Heartland shares, maybe even close to 120

[RTM]

Roger,

I realise you have a lot more experience with finance companies than I have as I completely dodged their meltdown, and I think that this has perhaps coloured your thinking to a large extent with respect to Heartland.
That's fine...and I can understand why you are so negative there. I must admit I am a little surprise that you think that the HNZ management are so inept that they would get our company into difficulty, especially so soon after the finance company meltdown. Surely the lessons learnt will still be with them and their lending will be reasonably well diversified. I think so and rightly or wrongly will therefore continue to hold my HNZ shares.

What I am more surprised about is that you seem to think companies such as PGW AIR and SCL are less risky. Disc: I hold all three.
AIR.... They are one pilot error away from a major crash of their share price. That's all it would take to maybe halve the share price, perhaps worse.
SCL... Have most of their production in Hawkes Bay. A disease issue, major drought, a series of hailstorms etc could see SCL have major issues.
PGW... Perhaps the least risky as they service all the agricultural sectors, so might be a little safer.

Above does not include normal market and business risks that would apply to all. Exchange Rates, market access, interest rates etc etc.

With all the stocks I have, I can dream up a whole series of dooms day scenarios that could quite possibly occur with any of them. Hopefully not at all the same time.
I really do think you need to lighten up on HNZ a bit ! They are probably less risky than a lot of other companies. And will certainly benefit in 12-18 months or so when interest rates start to rise.

Cheers
RTM

[nextbigthing]

So 111 was a lower low in the current downtrend. Previous lower high was 121 so that immediate target to see if the good news etc is enough to break out of this downtrend (from 141)

OZ banks recovered yesterday afternoon. US markets up heaps overnight. Mike Hosking says the worlds all OK. - today will be a big day for Heartland shares, maybe even close to 120

Lol Winner.

Ok start to the day anyway.

[winner69]

Lol Winner.

Ok start to the day anyway.

There us a trading perspective to keep an eye on as well as the fundamental view.

It's all about market sentiment whether the fundamentals suck or a brillant. Charts measure that (degree of) market sentiment.


Keep an eye on the chart ....better for you today and tomorrow than taking solace from a Craig's report. They are only useful for looking back in a years time to see how good they were.

[Beagle]

Roger,

I realise you have a lot more experience with finance companies than I have as I completely dodged their meltdown, and I think that this has perhaps coloured your thinking to a large extent with respect to Heartland.
That's fine...and I can understand why you are so negative there. I must admit I am a little surprise that you think that the HNZ management are so inept that they would get our company into difficulty, especially so soon after the finance company meltdown. Surely the lessons learnt will still be with them and their lending will be reasonably well diversified. I think so and rightly or wrongly will therefore continue to hold my HNZ shares.

What I am more surprised about is that you seem to think companies such as PGW AIR and SCL are less risky. Disc: I hold all three.
AIR.... They are one pilot error away from a major crash of their share price. That's all it would take to maybe halve the share price, perhaps worse.
SCL... Have most of their production in Hawkes Bay. A disease issue, major drought, a series of hailstorms etc could see SCL have major issues.
PGW... Perhaps the least risky as they service all the agricultural sectors, so might be a little safer.

Above does not include normal market and business risks that would apply to all. Exchange Rates, market access, interest rates etc etc.

With all the stocks I have, I can dream up a whole series of dooms day scenarios that could quite possibly occur with any of them. Hopefully not at all the same time.
I really do think you need to lighten up on HNZ a bit ! They are probably less risky than a lot of other companies. And will certainly benefit in 12-18 months or so when interest rates start to rise.

Cheers
RTM

Thank you for taking the time in a nice way to share your perspective and for your constructive criticism RTM which I have taken on board. In some respects its only human nature that the very tough experiences, (scars permanently seared into our brain), we've been through mean we all see the same situation through a different set of lenses and as you allude too if people have seen appalling management practices during the GFC with finance companies sometimes its difficult not to be pre-disposed towards looking for problematic type lending, the type of concerns I've fully articulated earlier.

In much the same way I'd speculate that children who lost their parents in the Erebus disaster might have a pre-disposed aversion to AIR or those who've lost their fortune in a disease, drought or pestilence type situation with their own agri venture would not be favourablly disposed towards investing in a listed entity exposed to those risks.

Its not the stock for me and as you suggest it is time to lighten up and move on. The eventual losses from dairy won't be known for several years...predicting the future is a difficult and inexact science at the best of times.

Anyway my views are well known and I retain many of my concerns so its not the right stock for me. I look at the long game and see systemic losses flowing through to their balance sheet. Its worth remembering that the stock was only $1.00 in late October 2014 when dairy was in far more robust shape than the current dire state of the industry. Only time will tell how this plays out.
(Note to self: (for goodness sake spend more time on profitable opportunities that fit with my psyche)

Shame Percy won't read this seeing as I'm on his ignore list lol

[SCOTTY]

Thank you for taking the time in a nice way to share your perspective and for your constructive criticism RTM which I have taken on board. In some respects its only human nature that the very tough experiences, (scars permanently seared into our brain), we've been through mean we all see the same situation through a different set of lenses and as you allude too if people have seen appalling management practices during the GFC with finance companies sometimes its difficult not to be pre-disposed towards looking for problematic type lending, the type of concerns I've fully articulated earlier.

In much the same way I'd speculate that children who lost their parents in the Erebus disaster might have a pre-disposed aversion to AIR or those who've lost their fortune in a disease, drought or pestilence type situation with their own agri venture would not be favourablly disposed towards investing in a listed entity exposed to those risks.

Its not the stock for me and as you suggest it is time to lighten up and move on. The eventual losses from dairy won't be known for several years...predicting the future is a difficult and inexact science at the best of times.

Anyway my views are well known and I retain many of my concerns so its not the right stock for me. I look at the long game and see systemic losses flowing through to their balance sheet. Its worth remembering that the stock was only $1.00 in late October 2014 when dairy was in far more robust shape than the current dire state of the industry. Only time will tell how this plays out.
(Note to self: (for goodness sake spend more time on profitable opportunities that fit with my psyche)

Shame Percy won't read this seeing as I'm on his ignore list lol

And yet you claim to be a happy holder of PGW which apparently has a 20/25% exposure to dairy?

[SCOTTY]

See the posting by Denis on the PGW thread today

[Beagle]

And yet you claim to be a happy holder of PGW which apparently has a 20/25% exposure to dairy?

You're either comfortable with the way a company is managed or you're not.

[winner69]

There us a trading perspective to keep an eye on as well as the fundamental view.

It's all about market sentiment whether the fundamentals suck or a brillant. Charts measure that (degree of) market sentiment.


Keep an eye on the chart ....better for you today and tomorrow than taking solace from a Craig's report. They are only useful for looking back in a years time to see how good they were.

Bugger, today started out very well but it ends down at the close.

Keep watching that chart to see how if sentiment changes over the rest of the week

[pierre]

Bugger, today started out very well but it ends down at the close.

Keep watching that chart to see how if sentiment changes over the rest of the week

Not as bad as the big banks - ANZ down 57 cents and Westpac down 75cents today!

[couta1]

Bugger, today started out very well but it ends down at the close.

Keep watching that chart to see how if sentiment changes over the rest of the week
The NZX weekly bar graph gives you a big clue as to why it finished down albeit on one tiny trade.

[winner69]

Share price looking strong today

Bad night on overseas markets ......with all the jitters around nz punters on a flight to safety maybe, Heartland fits the bill perfectly I'm told

[dagoldtoof]

And I have a young sibling wanting to start up his own business...Should I shake his hand or weep on his shoulder?

[winner69]

Share price looking strong today

Bad night on overseas markets ......with all the jitters around nz punters on a flight to safety maybe, Heartland fits the bill perfectly I'm told

Like yesterday bad end to day.

Technically - a new lower low in the downtrend that started last February with a high of 141.

With global events, esp what the Chinese Central Bank are doing, taking a turn for the worse I thinks will see even lower lows even if this not the the big market correction / collapse. Even Heartland will get caught up if this is the case


Still holding what I have left ....until tomorrow

[winner69]

Roger, did you see dairy cows at their lowest price since 2009

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/70912451/dairy-cow-prices-fall-to-lowest-levels-since-2009

[pierre]

And another bad day for the big banks ANZ down 91cents and Westpac down 60.....

[winner69]

And another bad day for the big banks ANZ down 91cents and Westpac down 60.....

Pierre, Do you think this carnage is only short term (blip on the radar sort of thing ) or the start of something more ominous?

[couta1]

Pierre, Do you think this carnage is only short term (blip on the radar sort of thing ) or the start of something more ominous?
Come on winner its pointless isolating any single stock on a big time carnage day like today.

[winner69]

Come on winner its pointless isolating any single stock on a big time carnage day like today.

My comment was in reply to Pierre and his observations on the OZ banks ...not isolating a single stock at all.

Do you think the market has turned turtle big time or is the last couple od days just a hiccup?

[nextbigthing]

Healthy correction.

Just not healthy for us.

[couta1]

My comment was in reply to Pierre and his observations on the OZ banks ...not isolating a single stock at all.

Do you think the market has turned turtle big time or is the last couple od days just a hiccup?
Fair enough, looks like a normal multi day correction to me, not getting at you but sometimes it amazes me that some on this forum are always trying to find answers as to why their favourite stock is down without checking out the weekly bar graph.

[winner69]

Heartland guidance for 2016 is $51m - $55m. This includes an allowance for estimated impairments.

The $55m is 15% more than fy15. Very good seeing that 'includes an allowance for estimated impairments'

Just a guess but lets say that allowance is $5m

That would imply that without this allowance (there actually isn't a problem) NPAT for fy16 would be $60m - 25% up on fy15 ...hmm

Just throwing it out there.

[Beagle]

Roger, did you see dairy cows at their lowest price since 2009

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/70912451/dairy-cow-prices-fall-to-lowest-levels-since-2009

Mate its best if I pretend I see nothing...nothing at all :)

[mouse]

It seems only a short time ago I was suggesting we might see a dollar a share by Christmas. But I never thought it might be Christmas 2015! Enjoy today, more info tomorrow.

[DoctorG]

I think theses are a good longterm prospect over five years.
Is it a good time to buy now or wait a few months?

[percy]

I think there was more than just market weakness,and being caught up with the Australian Banks' need for more capital,working against HNZ today.The aggressive selling looks to me as though a large margin trader has been caught out,and is having their position sold.

[percy]

With over $20 billion of rural loans, it was refreshing to read ASB's Chief Executive Barabara Chapman's comments this morning.
"Most farmers in our experience have gone through these cycles well,with a bit of help from their bank."
"I don't expect it to be any different this time."

[iceman]

Yes ASB reported increased cash earnings up 9% to $846M. Biggest profit ever for ASB. They've grown their home mortgage book 5% to 43.7 Billion and their Business & Rural lending book up a massive 14% to $ 20 Billion.
But impairments for bad debts have also increased from $56 Million to $89 Million. While a significant amount, it is not huge in the scheme of things and ASB seems to maintain confidence in the rural sectors. This is good news, albeit still early in the dairy downturn cycle.

[winner69]

Yes ASB reported increased cash earnings up 9% to $846M. Biggest profit ever for ASB. They've grown their home mortgage book 5% to 43.7 Billion and their Business & Rural lending book up a massive 14% to $ 20 Billion.
But impairments for bad debts have also increased from $56 Million to $89 Million. While a significant amount, it is not huge in the scheme of things and ASB seems to maintain confidence in the rural sectors. This is good news, albeit still early in the dairy downturn cycle.

Heartland probably have a 59% increase in bad debt expenses FY15 as well ....as you say early in the downturn cycle so lets hope not another 59% in fy16

As a matter of interest Heartland current provisions as % receivables lower than ASB -- benefit of being best in breed.

[iceman]

Heartland probably have a 59% increase in bad debt expenses FY15 as well ....as you say early in the downturn cycle so lets hope not another 59% in fy16

As a matter of interest Heartland current provisions as % receivables lower than ASB -- benefit of being best in breed.

No doubt that impairments need to be watched very carefully in the next few HNZ results.
Here is a bit more from the ASB result:

" Impairment losses on loans jumped 59%, albeit off a low base, to $89 million. CEO Barbara Chapman attributed this to increases across all lending portfolios. Despite the strong annual results, things slowed down in the second-half for ASB. Cash net profit slipped 3% from the second-half of the bank's 2014 financial year to $417 million. (Annual cash profit was up 9% to $846 million). The drop was attributed to rising impairments and operating expenses.

And the second-half figures show home loan growth of 4% - in line with system. However, business and rural lending growth still grew above system at 7%, and customer deposits increased 9%.

The second-half also delivered a lower net interest margin, a 50 basis points increase in expense to income ratio to 39.2%, and a $15 million rise in loan impairments due to an increase in rural lending provisioning. Impairment expense annualised as a percentage of average gross loans rose 5 basis points annually to 0.14%, and reached 0.16% in the second-half."

[Baa_Baa]

Watching from the sidelines, the chart is getting encouraging for lower SP buy-in/re-entry/accumulation, depending on ones motivations. The chart by itself won't make that happen, but the significant things seem to be:

- the 50/200EMA death cross happening now;
- SP below major support $1.12 100% retrace of the whole rally from 12 Jan 2015 which is now overhead resistance;
- that failed support at $1.12 'happens' to also be the 61.8% fib retrace of the entire move since 3 Sep 2014;
- only obvious price supports seem to be the horizontals at $1.01 and $0.9, and a downtrend support line around $1.08 which has offered 4 previous price supports.
- understandably the indicators are weak, though surprisingly RSI is still not fully oversold.

[warthog]

The hog sees $1.08 as a long-term uptrend support. If that breaks…

Disc.: no holdings (yet)

[Hoop]

Watching from the sidelines, the chart is getting encouraging for lower SP buy-in/re-entry/accumulation, depending on ones motivations. The chart by itself won't make that happen, but the significant things seem to be:

- the 50/200EMA death cross happening now;
- SP below major support $1.12 100% retrace of the whole rally from 12 Jan 2015 which is now overhead resistance;
- that failed support at $1.12 'happens' to also be the 61.8% fib retrace of the entire move since 3 Sep 2014;
- only obvious price supports seem to be the horizontals at $1.01 and $0.9, and a downtrend support line around $1.08 which has offered 4 previous price supports.
- understandably the indicators are weak, though surprisingly RSI is still not fully oversold.
Chart becoming more encouraging for SP buyins.......Hmmmm just below any peak is encouraging (e.g "cheap shares") so a dip below $1.40 encouraged some to top up....Actually, the most discouraging time is the buy time, when pessimism has pushed a price into oversold territory. Not sure if HNZ is near this price territory.


I think theses are a good longterm prospect over five years.
Is it a good time to buy now... NO !!!! or wait a few months?

Maybe its at the bottom?.....perhaps but why risk it....The chances of an investor picking the bottom is minimal...therefore the risk is high...Only optimistic investors buy into downtrends the rest of us patiently wait until the storm passes...wearing rosy glasses can be dangerous to your capital wealth.

Below is a Phaedrus style chart...It's not posted to offend anyone, I've posted it to highlight the psychological behaviour of investors during a bear cycle..At the beginning of the HNZ bear cycle the business environment is still very buoyant and investors are very optimistic and willing to ride out Mr Markets paranoia ...as time goes on... one by one the investors see that the scaremongering rumours and Mr Markets paranoia were in actual fact real.. In the end there will be a bottom and when this happens this point could possibily show a lack of interest from investors..

The most fascinating thing with this chart is the buying and selling behaviour...Anxious holders endure the pain only to give when the share price falls to near a support (it's darkest before the dawn)..and with a rally the buyers wait too long and end up buy in near a resistance or a top....So the old saying goes.."Watch the price go up after I sell out"...or....."I brought in now watch it fall in price".....The buy sell signals which TA employs is based on investment behaviour....so when an investor quotes those old sayings (S)he knows subconsciously has this feeling that this buy/sell is wrong and these actions are emotionally driven and emotion overrides that investors personal investment goals and objectives....

This reinforces TA philosophy in showing buy/sell signals to the investor whose own judgement could be "clouded" due to pessimistic/optimistic environment (S)he is operating in thereby being reluctant (or in denial) to act upon any changes that occur. ..

Sometimes these denials are reinforced with the investor (unaware of the denial problem) hunting down information that only reinforces that denial and dismisses (sometimes with hostility) any other conflicting views...

Also Note: the very late MA50/ma200 crossover (death cross) indicator telling us that HNZ is in a downtrend and we should sell.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/HNZ%2012082015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/HNZ%2012082015.png.html)

[winner69]

Hoop, one thing missing on that chart - around the $1.32 mark you should noted Roger selling with the narrative something like 'price going down seems to reflect my feelings that things aren't that rosy so its time to sell"

Sorry Roger but 22 cents X the heaps you had = A LOT of extra cash you have now.

[winner69]

Hoop, Mr P will be proud of you.

[Hoop]

Hoop, one thing missing on that chart - around the $1.32 mark you should noted Roger selling with the narrative something like 'price going down seems to reflect my feelings that things aren't that rosy so its time to sell"

Sorry Roger but 22 cents X the heaps you had = A LOT of extra cash you have now.

Yeah I suppose so...In hindsight I should've mentioned one or two who took the negative view .. just so to balance the post


Hoop, Mr P will be proud of you.

No copyright infringement notices in my "in box"...all's good :D

EDIT:
Good recovery today at the finish 111c up 1c... got a little scary for a while when it fell to 108.....Sadly the chart at the moment is terrible...HNZ really needs to level out and create a floor at around 110 to regain investor confidence..

[mouse]

Where is Percy????????????

[Joshuatree]

A bit hysterical there mouse.He posted this am and i suggest if you need a fix from the big cheese :p,pm him.

[iceman]

Where is Percy????????????

Last seen attending his orchards ������

[percy]

Where is Percy????????????
Thanks for asking Mouse.
I am still here "loitering with intent",and very much looking forward to HNZ's result on Tuesday.
Sometimes sharetrader can be a distraction,and so I have been spending less time on sharetrader,and more time doing my own research on companies.

[winner69]

Heartland share price looking OK today. Everybody seems happy. Will be a good end to the week I reckon but watch out next week ( or is the week after) when it all action.

Has to get back above that ominous 112 mark that Hoop talks about.

Just checking in while waiting for the man to finish cooking the fish and chips (crumbed tarakihi fillet today as oysters only on Nat Super pay days) and then I'll wander across the road and sit on the beach and enjoy them seeing its a bit warmer today.

[Beagle]

http://www.interest.co.nz/news/77085/surging-auckland-house-prices-lead-raft-sp-credit-rating-and-stand-alone-credit-profile
I think people have a right to know this so will post it in a factual way.
S&P makes quite a significant number of credit rating downgrades on N.Z. financial institutions.
To be clear, Fitch is the only credit rating agency assigned to HNZ after HNZ removed S&P's authority to rate them last year.
What Fitch do in regard to HNZ, if anything, remains to be seen.

[trader_jackson]

I just brought some at $1.12, small parcel, yes it might have been a small premium to what I could have potentially got it for (eg $1.08) but I think it is "a fair price"... looking forward to results this coming tuesday

[winner69]

http://www.interest.co.nz/news/77085/surging-auckland-house-prices-lead-raft-sp-credit-rating-and-stand-alone-credit-profile
I think people have a right to know this so will post it in a factual way.
S&P makes quite a significant number of credit rating downgrades on N.Z. financial institutions.
To be clear, Fitch is the only credit rating agency assigned to HNZ after HNZ removed S&P's authority to rate them last year.
What Fitch do in regard to HNZ, if anything, remains to be seen.

The agencies do seem to have a tendency to follow each other and seeing Fitch have already made comment on the situation in NZ in the last few months the S&P action might prompt them to be more specific. Anything could happen now.

We just to have wait and see, but no news is good news I suppose.

[stoploss]

http://www.interest.co.nz/news/77085/surging-auckland-house-prices-lead-raft-sp-credit-rating-and-stand-alone-credit-profile
I think people have a right to know this so will post it in a factual way.
S&P makes quite a significant number of credit rating downgrades on N.Z. financial institutions.
To be clear, Fitch is the only credit rating agency assigned to HNZ after HNZ removed S&P's authority to rate them last year.
What Fitch do in regard to HNZ, if anything, remains to be seen.

Roger surprised you are still following these guys . These are the same companies that rated CDO's AAA going into the GFC ....... If these guys were a stock you would be talking them down like there was no tomorrow .
I take them with a grain of salt these days , anybody with their nose to the ground can stay ahead of these guys ......

http://theconversation.com/why-we-should-be-wary-of-ratings-agencies-5482

[couta1]

Well what a week of carnage on the NZX,oh well there's always next week, I didn't want to check my portfolio red arrow tonight because I knew it would have grown to a eye watering size, hopefully a lot of the nervous nellie sellers will settle their nerves over the weekend, a lot of people must be losing heaps by selling at the moment:eek2:

[winner69]

Well what a week of carnage on the NZX,oh well there's always next week, I didn't want to check my portfolio red arrow tonight because I knew it would have grown to a eye watering size, hopefully a lot of the nervous nellie sellers will settle their nerves over the weekend, a lot of people must be losing heaps by selling at the moment:eek2:

Jeez that was carnage this afternoon ....go out for the afternoon when things were positive an come home and things well, carnage it was.

Can't be crash gaining momentum can it? Some punters obviously not wanting to hold over the weekend.

The man on the radio will prob say profit taking ....that's what he always says on these sort of days.

[couta1]

Its always profit taking even though people are selling for losses, a waste bucket answer for lazy brokers and analysts who cant be bothered looking into things any deeper.

[Beagle]

Roger surprised you are still following these guys . These are the same companies that rated CDO's AAA going into the GFC ....... If these guys were a stock you would be talking them down like there was no tomorrow .
I take them with a grain of salt these days , anybody with their nose to the ground can stay ahead of these guys ......

http://theconversation.com/why-we-should-be-wary-of-ratings-agencies-5482

A lot of massive mistakes made in the GFC and the one you've alluded too was undoubtedly one of the biggest. Some companies and organisations learned some very harsh and expensive lessons and are now playing a far more conservative game and S&P is one of them. In terms of staying ahead of them, many will be well aware I've been predicting for some time now Fitch will downgrade HNZ.

Winner, the market certainly has a weaker bias. It's a bit concerning.

[winner69]

It'sIt's always profit taking even though people are selling for losses, a waste bucket answer for lazy brokers and analysts who cant be bothered looking into things any deeper.
The man said it 'rebalancing day' .... all Contacts fault

We be OK next week as excuse #3 comes out 'bargain hunting'

[Joshuatree]

Roger surprised you are still following these guys . These are the same companies that rated CDO's AAA going into the GFC ....... If these guys were a stock you would be talking them down like there was no tomorrow .
I take them with a grain of salt these days , anybody with their nose to the ground can stay ahead of these guys ......

http://theconversation.com/why-we-should-be-wary-of-ratings-agencies-5482

Very pertinent stop loss. I remember the cannibal vampire squid (goldman sachs) and the ratings agencies; who can forget; what a team.As for changing their spots,ha. Do you own research on this and don't accept anyones glossy gospel that things are hunky dory.. These guys brought the world to its knees.

The Credit Rating Controversy - Council on Foreign Relations (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CC8QFjADahUKEwjYkZW2hqjHAhWBq6YKHXWsAbo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cfr.org%2Ffinancial-crises%2Fcredit-rating-controversy%2Fp22328&ei=qpjNVdiUNYHXmgX12IbQCw&usg=AFQjCNEl4qYqyH1r0cgH-VtVYq8u4EqKhA&sig2=ns82srriDX0ltmOvIrVesw&bvm=bv.99804247,d.dGY)

Credit Rating Agencies: How to Restore Credibility (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&ved=0CDcQFjAEahUKEwjYkZW2hqjHAhWBq6YKHXWsAbo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tavakolistructuredfinance.com %2Ftavakoli-revokes-cra-nrsro%2F&ei=qpjNVdiUNYHXmgX12IbQCw&usg=AFQjCNGn1B_-gVjRmeIW9XBDj2RtvgBFTQ&sig2=i6W5BHzAC0JPXQJxaGISLw&bvm=bv.99804247,d.dGY)


Rating the Raters - Bloomberg QuickTake (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CD0QFjAFahUKEwjYkZW2hqjHAhWBq6YKHXWsAbo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloombergview.com%2Fquicktake %2Frating-the-raters&ei=qpjNVdiUNYHXmgX12IbQCw&usg=AFQjCNHjAXlS9hknWy3Gb1aFAQhDYxXifA&sig2=3KmksgOsGJmt1jNBtV0QLQ&bvm=bv.99804247,d.dGY)

[Crackity]

Very pertinent stop loss. I remember the cannibal vampire squid (goldman sachs) and the ratings agencies; who can forget; what a team.As for changing their spots,ha. Do you own research on this and don't accept anyones glossy gospel that things are hunky dory.. These guys brought the world to its knees.

The Credit Rating Controversy - Council on Foreign Relations (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CC8QFjADahUKEwjYkZW2hqjHAhWBq6YKHXWsAbo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cfr.org%2Ffinancial-crises%2Fcredit-rating-controversy%2Fp22328&ei=qpjNVdiUNYHXmgX12IbQCw&usg=AFQjCNEl4qYqyH1r0cgH-VtVYq8u4EqKhA&sig2=ns82srriDX0ltmOvIrVesw&bvm=bv.99804247,d.dGY)

Credit Rating Agencies: How to Restore Credibility (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&ved=0CDcQFjAEahUKEwjYkZW2hqjHAhWBq6YKHXWsAbo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tavakolistructuredfinance.com %2Ftavakoli-revokes-cra-nrsro%2F&ei=qpjNVdiUNYHXmgX12IbQCw&usg=AFQjCNGn1B_-gVjRmeIW9XBDj2RtvgBFTQ&sig2=i6W5BHzAC0JPXQJxaGISLw&bvm=bv.99804247,d.dGY)


Rating the Raters - Bloomberg QuickTake (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CD0QFjAFahUKEwjYkZW2hqjHAhWBq6YKHXWsAbo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloombergview.com%2Fquicktake %2Frating-the-raters&ei=qpjNVdiUNYHXmgX12IbQCw&usg=AFQjCNHjAXlS9hknWy3Gb1aFAQhDYxXifA&sig2=3KmksgOsGJmt1jNBtV0QLQ&bvm=bv.99804247,d.dGY)

i would add to the list Michael Lewis's The Big Short book.....and it's not even in the fiction section of the library.

[winner69]

Here is my old linear regression channel chart for HNZ updated to today

Strategy is to trade the strong uptrends but when that uptrend breaks down take profits when the price falls below the bottom channel line. Real success using this strategy is discipline and selling when the chart says so.

All worked fine as the price rose to 141 - all honky dory. Wasn't really a worry as the price drifted down to 130. But it broke below 130 which gave a sell signal. I occasionally let these things run a bit (the old fake break out trick) and didn't sell.

The price recovered but at 133 it didn't break back into the channel. A real bad sign and a definite get out message at that time (131/132)

It couldn't be true. I believed my own bull**** - HNZ was going to 160 plus based on decent profits this year, reratings and flag poles and all sorts of things. I had fallen in love with this baby.

Things weren't too bad for a while as it drifted along around the 130 mark.

But the fall to 125 was real confirmation that this was going into a down trend. I sold a decent chunk of what I had. Lack of discipline and getting carried away with my own bull**** cost me - I had not taken all the profits I should have.

I still had hope. Stupid really holding any but I did. A large chunk of those remaining have been sold sub 120 - again not taking as much profit as I should have.

I still have a few which is real dumb - strategy was to ride a strong uptrend and make most of what was available, But not following that strategy and the lack of discipline has made a 40% gain since last August into only a 30% gain (if the ones left don't fall further). (dividends not count, they are a bonus)

I hate it when this happens. Sometimes you learn lessons the hard way winner. People may laugh at your charts and squiggly lines but heck they more often work than not. Yes winner, charts also beat that fabulous fundamental analysis you did.

I will keep the ones I have. They will become the platform for riding another uptrend if that ever happens again.

[winner69]

Geez that Roger was clever selling ALL of his at 132.

And he doesn't even use charts

Probably just plain common sense and a belief in how he sees how things going (for the worse)

[Joshuatree]

Great review w69.KW seems to have it nailed down but its not my personality to be100% like that and there are less feel good surprises, excitement of the hunt etc. I want to keep trying and improve at it but also have a broader brush for other investing styles. Im still holding all my HNZ and next week will reveal if my strategy is right or not. HNZ is in my investment portfolio.If one does too many trades one will attract the IRD and be reclassified as a trader. I have small tax paying trading portfolio too.

[Joshuatree]

i would add to the list Michael Lewis's The Big Short book.....and it's not even in the fiction section of the library.
cheers Crackity a few details below.

The Big Short - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCgQFjABahUKEwiM6_nirKjHAhWH3KYKHTFlAYw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FThe_Bi g_Short&ei=4cDNVcz2FIe5mwWxyoXgCA&usg=AFQjCNFIi-EIzddrlDeTRwIprWYIG2BVPQ&sig2=kmCHyPEAUH9hHsJaRXDt3Q&bvm=bv.99804247,d.dGY)

[blackcap]

cheers Crackity a few details below.

The Big Short - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCgQFjABahUKEwiM6_nirKjHAhWH3KYKHTFlAYw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FThe_Bi g_Short&ei=4cDNVcz2FIe5mwWxyoXgCA&usg=AFQjCNFIi-EIzddrlDeTRwIprWYIG2BVPQ&sig2=kmCHyPEAUH9hHsJaRXDt3Q&bvm=bv.99804247,d.dGY)

Oh cool... thanks for the link.. I see they are making a movie of it... could be interesting... Brad Pitt and Beyonce et al. On second thoughts, oh no....

Still will be difficult to replicate the book with all its intrigue but I will have a watch when it does come out.

[MPC]

I intended to hold HNZ and most of my stocks for the long term but have been getting spooked and sold a large part of them earlier in the week. Half of my HNZ, SUM for good profits so happy in that respect. Things are definitely looking interesting at the moment though.
Cheers,
MPC

[ziggy415]

Here is my old linear regression channel chart for HNZ updated to today

Strategy is to trade the strong uptrends but when that uptrend breaks down take profits when the price falls below the bottom channel line. Real success using this strategy is discipline and selling when the chart says so.

All worked fine as the price rose to 141 - all honky dory. Wasn't really a worry as the price drifted down to 130. But it broke below 130 which gave a sell signal. I occasionally let these things run a bit (the old fake break out trick) and didn't sell.

The price recovered but at 133 it didn't break back into the channel. A real bad sign and a definite get out message at that time (131/132)

It couldn't be true. I believed my own bull**** - HNZ was going to 160 plus based on decent profits this year, reratings and flag poles and all sorts of things. I had fallen in love with this baby.

Things weren't too bad for a while as it drifted along around the 130 mark.

But the fall to 125 was real confirmation that this was going into a down trend. I sold a decent chunk of what I had. Lack of discipline and getting carried away with my own bull**** cost me - I had not taken all the profits I should have.

I still had hope. Stupid really holding any but I did. A large chunk of those remaining have been sold sub 120 - again not taking as much profit as I should have.

I still have a few which is real dumb - strategy was to ride a strong uptrend and make most of what was available, But not following that strategy and the lack of discipline has made a 40% gain since last August into only a 30% gain (if the ones left don't fall further). (dividends not count, they are a bonus)

I hate it when this happens. Sometimes you learn lessons the hard way winner. People may laugh at your charts and squiggly lines but heck they more often work than not. Yes winner, charts also beat that fabulous fundamental analysis you did.

I will keep the ones I have. They will become the platform for riding another uptrend if that ever happens again.
Geez winner you have gone from a glass half full to a glass bloody near empty over heartland...it sounds like hnz are broke... no money and on their last legs, so come monday im going to sell all of my heartland shares...the whole damn 110 of them...thanks for the heads up...much appreciated.......ha ha ha...now that the alcohol has worked thru the system and in the clear light of day things are looking better arent they Winner...hnz fundamental haven,t really changed that much and the divvy streams not bad...and if we see bargains on the sharmarket im sure hnz see the same

[winner69]

Yes ziggy - fundamentally heartland aint changed much. Growth slowing and maybe facing some headwinds in next year or two and possibly exposed to some write offs above average levels. Next year they will make between $50m and $60m and pay a divie.

I made no mention of them going broke. That post was mainly from a trade perspective (interest supported by strong fundamentals) - essentially trading the sentiment of the market. At the moment a bit negative.

But all its saying is that the market per see is disappointed with only $48m NPAT this year and it has concerns about the future (growth and write offs). The chart is really saying that Heartland isn't worth 1.4 book value (at 140) but is really only worth 1.1 times book value. That in itself is still quite a respectable valuation in the circumstances.

I patiently waited (ignored a lot the hype in the process) for the breakout at 92/93. Trade has been a success even though ill discipline reduced the profits. I had hoped that this trade might have lasted for years. It did not sobeit

Maybe another time. Waiting until Tuesday or when ever to see where my forecast NPAT fell short and looking forward to what Greensleeves has to say.

[winner69]

Greensleeves ....bloody spell check

[Beagle]

Here is my old linear regression channel chart for HNZ updated to today

Strategy is to trade the strong uptrends but when that uptrend breaks down take profits when the price falls below the bottom channel line. Real success using this strategy is discipline and selling when the chart says so.

All worked fine as the price rose to 141 - all honky dory. Wasn't really a worry as the price drifted down to 130. But it broke below 130 which gave a sell signal. I occasionally let these things run a bit (the old fake break out trick) and didn't sell.

The price recovered but at 133 it didn't break back into the channel. A real bad sign and a definite get out message at that time (131/132)

It couldn't be true. I believed my own bull**** - HNZ was going to 160 plus based on decent profits this year, reratings and flag poles and all sorts of things. I had fallen in love with this baby.

Things weren't too bad for a while as it drifted along around the 130 mark.

But the fall to 125 was real confirmation that this was going into a down trend. I sold a decent chunk of what I had. Lack of discipline and getting carried away with my own bull**** cost me - I had not taken all the profits I should have.

I still had hope. Stupid really holding any but I did. A large chunk of those remaining have been sold sub 120 - again not taking as much profit as I should have.

I still have a few which is real dumb - strategy was to ride a strong uptrend and make most of what was available, But not following that strategy and the lack of discipline has made a 40% gain since last August into only a 30% gain (if the ones left don't fall further). (dividends not count, they are a bonus)

I hate it when this happens. Sometimes you learn lessons the hard way winner. People may laugh at your charts and squiggly lines but heck they more often work than not. Yes winner, charts also beat that fabulous fundamental analysis you did.

I will keep the ones I have. They will become the platform for riding another uptrend if that ever happens again.


Geez that Roger was clever selling ALL of his at 132.

And he doesn't even use charts

Probably just plain common sense and a belief in how he sees how things going (for the worse)

Don't be too hard on yourself mate. Its a well known phenomenon that people get emotionally attached to shares. My AIR shares and me are best mates lol

Crikey it looks bloody grim :scared:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11497435

[winner69]

If the Heartland share price had followed the red line in the chart below we wouldn't be thinking as we do now would we.

There is also a line showing Heartland's book value. The current share price is just over 10% more than its book value.a Price/Book Value of 1.1. This is probably a pretty fair valuation, many would say about right.

The chart shows the share price has moved from being relatively undervalued (P/B less than 1) to being reasonably (fairly) priced.

Heartland was never worth $1.41. Those were times of real exuberance.

Something happened to cause all the excitement that took the share price to $1.41

On reflection I think Heartland themselves caused a fair bit of this excitment.

After all they (or at least the CEO did) started showing us all those charts with HNZ valuations relative to Australian peers. The message was strong - Heartland share price is too low, Heartland is way undervalued. Talk about a good round of ramping (or more politely self promotion). Even the analysts agreed - did they fall for it as well? It seemed to work - it got the share price up.

But I think the market has got over that and now Quadrant have gone normality has resumed and the share price is about where it should be. No panic, steady as she goes from here. The red line looks pretty good eh.

[winner69]

The Global Dairy Price Index was 954 on Feb 17th (it had been on the rise since the previous October). On that date the Heartland share price was $1.38

Over the last 6 months as the GDT index has fallen so has the Heartland share price. (GDT down46% and HNZ down 21%

Just an observation and surely a coincidence

[Beagle]

The Global Dairy Price Index was 954 on Feb 17th (it had been on the rise since the previous October). On that date the Heartland share price was $1.38

Over the last 6 months as the GDT index has fallen so has the Heartland share price. (GDT down46% and HNZ down 21%

Just an observation and surely a coincidence

Or perhaps not. At the time of the ASM on 31 October 2014 the GDT auction price was about $2,700 and the SP was $1.00. Between then and about late January / early February 2015 the GDT auction price rose to circa $3,500 and with it HNZ's SP to $1.32 whereupon on 1 February 2015 I made the bold call the stock was fairly and fully valued and that gains going forward from there would be far harder to achieve. Since then, apart from a brief spurt up to $1.41, the GDT auction price and HNZ's SP have been pretty much steadily downhill, apart from a period just preceding Quadrant's sale when the SP was quite remarkably firm for a short time despite a weaker GDT auction price, which surprised me. Is that a coincidence ?, that's the real "coincidence" question people should be asking !

[Hoop]

Nice informative chart Winner..

[winner69]

Or perhaps not. At the time of the ASM on 31 October 2014 the GDT auction price was about $2,700 and the SP was $1.00. Between then and about late January / early February 2015 the GDT auction price rose to circa $3,500 and with it HNZ's SP to $1.32 whereupon on 1 February 2015 I made the bold call the stock was fairly and fully valued and that gains going forward from there would be far harder to achieve. Since then, apart from a brief spurt up to $1.41, the GDT auction price and HNZ's SP have been pretty much steadily downhill, apart from a period just preceding Quadrant's sale when the SP was quite remarkably firm for a short time despite a weaker GDT auction price, which surprised me. Is that a coincidence ?, that's the real "coincidence" question people should be asking !

Next we will bw getting into a discussion on correlation does not imply causation

Whatever things did cause a lot of exuberance

Might be dairy prices .... might be Heartland ramping the undervalued stock story up .... and then there is the coincidence that all this happened around the time that Quadrant were planning their exit.

Just pure speculation

[winner69]

Heartland near the top of the leader board today .....whoopee

Is tomorrow the big day when the good news comes out?

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/HNZ/announcements/268573
(https://www.nzx.com/companies/HNZ/announcements/268573)
Absolute stunner! Even above the recently upwardly revised profit forecast!
Onwards and upwards to $1.40 again!

[percy]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/HNZ/announcements/268573
(https://www.nzx.com/companies/HNZ/announcements/268573)
Absolute stunner! Even above the recently upwardly revised profit forecast!
Onwards and upwards to $1.40 again!

You have stolen my thunder.!!!
Word for word.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Absolute Stunner.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[belted galloway]

Haven't had a chance to read full report yet, although found this interesting note:

"Heartland Bank intends to issue a Tier 2 capital instrument this financial year as part of its capital management strategy, subject to market conditions remaining favourable... An issue of Tier 2 capital could (in the absence of any other use) allow Heartland to return capital by way of a share buy back which would have a positive impact on ROE and EPS. A share buy back would also be attractive if Heartland shares continue to trade below the Board’s view of their intrinsic value."

[winner69]

Just as expected. Nothing new except for a bit of tinkering around the edges to get to $48.2m

Even that Tier 2 stuff is not new. Love banks borrowing to give back to shareholders.

Underwhelming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[couta1]

Just as expected. Nothing new except for a bit of tinkering around the edges to get to $48.2m

Even that Tier 2 stuff is not new. Love banks borrowing to give back to shareholders.

Underwhelming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Mr Market doesn't think so, your a hard man to please.

[iceman]

Yes a great result across all areas of the business. Share buyback coming our way and a final fully imputed dividend of 4.5c. Not to be sneezed at.

This about the rural sector impairments :
Impairments in the Rural division were low for the Current Reporting Period
and include adequate provisions for the dairy sector. Impairments in the Business division
, although higher than the Previous Corresponding Reporting Period,
were at expected levels.

[trader_jackson]

Underwhelming??? How is beating almost all market expectations in almost all areas underwhelming?

Very very hard man to please :cool:

[iceman]

Just as expected. Nothing new except for a bit of tinkering around the edges to get to $48.2m

Even that Tier 2 stuff is not new. Love banks borrowing to give back to shareholders.

Underwhelming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A bit mischievous there winner ! They will reduce Tier 1 capital and issue some Tier 2 capital but regulatory minimum capital ratios will reduce only from the very healthy 12.9% to 12.5%. Pretty healthy don't you think ?

[blackcap]

I guess the share price action this morning suggests the market was expecting this result?

[winner69]

Underwhelming??? How is beating almost all market expectations in almost all areas underwhelming?

Very very hard man to please :cool:

Met market expectations and analyst forecasts - +/- a fraction

Pity about the $12m in bad debts - $6m more than last year. We can't even blame dairy for that can we.

Without that huge increase in bad debts I would agree with you that it would have been stunning.

[RTM]

From my perspective a good result, really nice to have the dividend increase. To me that is an important consideration..
I was a little surprised by this:

" As at 30 June 2015, Heartland Bank had also lent approximately $32.8m through the Harmoney platform"

Had not expected HNZ to be using the Harmoney platform to this extent. Not quite sure how to think about this.

[winner69]

I guess the share price action this morning suggests the market was expecting this result?

It's going up ....relief rally?

[trader_jackson]

No need to worry, the market just needs some time to sit back and digest such a great result

[percy]

I brought more this morning.

[Bjauck]

It's going up ....relief rally? Maybe. Result at top end of guidance. Directors have boosted the dividend quite a bit. Does that reflect confidence that the profit will be maintained even with dairy in its current strife? I think the half year result in six months will be interesting as it may more fully reflect the fallen dairy prices and a more general cooling in conditions.

[Harvey Specter]

Pity about the $12m in bad debts - $6m more than last year. We can't even blame dairy for that can we.The question is did they massage the bad debt provision up or down to give a result just above top of range?

[RTM]

From my perspective a good result, really nice to have the dividend increase. To me that is an important consideration..
I was a little surprised by this:

" As at 30 June 2015, Heartland Bank had also lent approximately $32.8m through the Harmoney platform"

Had not expected HNZ to be using the Harmoney platform to this extent. Not quite sure how to think about this.

So trying to figure out whether this is good or bad and how material.

I see this from the Harmony site.
"HARMONEY PASSES $50 MILLION
Peer-to-peer lender Harmoney says it passed a significant milestone this month with more than $50 million having now been lent via its online platform with more than 1.4 million transactions facilitated to date. Harmoney says this makes it the fastest growing peer-to-peer lending marketplace in Australasia" Date 28 May 2015 Interest.co.nz
So this is reasonably recent. That means a huge proportion of Harmoney's lending is funded by HNZ. So Harmoney is really just a branch of HNZ. I can't recall what % of Harmoney that HNZ own. Well, it will be at higher interest rates....but how secure ?

[winner69]

So trying to figure out whether this is good or bad and how material.

I see this from the Harmony site.
"HARMONEY PASSES $50 MILLION
Peer-to-peer lender Harmoney says it passed a significant milestone this month with more than $50 million having now been lent via its online platform with more than 1.4 million transactions facilitated to date. Harmoney says this makes it the fastest growing peer-to-peer lending marketplace in Australasia" Date 28 May 2015 Interest.co.nz
So this is reasonably recent. That means a huge proportion of Harmoney's lending is funded by HNZ. So Harmoney is really just a branch of HNZ. I can't recall what % of Harmoney that HNZ own. Well, it will be at higher interest rates....but how secure ?

Harmoney not really P2P is it?

Comm Commission looking at Harmoney's fee structure as well. If they factored HNZ involvement in it could be interesting.

[winner69]

The question is did they massage the bad debt provision up or down to give a result just above top of range?

Now that is really mischievous. Surely not suggesting massaging results to manage analyst expectations.

Whatever its a big (unexpected) number even allowing for the $1m court case so the answer is probably up.

[Harvey Specter]

I see this from the Harmony site.
"HARMONEY PASSES $50 MILLIONPretty sure I read they were over $75M and on track for the $100m in 1 year target which must be coming up very soon.

11% ownership. Trademe is 15%. http://coys.co.nz/company/?no=5177041-HARMONEY+CORP+LIMITED

[winner69]

Hope the share price doesn't go up too much before end of September

Get more cheap ones in the DRP .... lot cheaper than the $1.30 odd ones last time

[Bjauck]

Hope the share price doesn't go up too much before end of September

Get more cheap ones in the DRP .... lot cheaper than the $1.30 odd ones last time I am definitely considering rejoining the DRP at current prices.

[blackcap]

That you backing the truck up there at 1.11 Percy? :)

[RGR367]

As I got my first bundle then at $1.30 and even lower prices for the subsequent ones, I'm not hesitating now to get some more at this price of $1.12. Just averaging it down. Risky? Maybe but I don't think so :cool:

[percy]

That you backing the truck up there at 1.11 Percy? :)

Wish it was....
No, I brought mine earlier this morning. [at a higher price]. The big increase in divie made me do it. ..Just love those increasing divies.lol.
Was not many years ago I was at the HNZ agm in Ashburton and comment was made of the poor ROE.
Greenslade agreed, and said they were aiming for 10% .This year's is 10.4% an increase of over 15% on last year's.Greenslade delivers.!
It is extraordinary fact, that while the Australian banks are raising capital, HNZ is looking at a share buyback.
Any buyback will increase ROE,EPS and make it easier for HNZ to keep increasing their dividend.Off course the opposite is the case for the Australian Banks.
Trader Jackson's comment was so right;Absolute Stunner.

[macduffy]

Well done, HNZ!

Not subject to the Australian prudential body APRA's capital requirements, of course.

;)

[percy]

What would be more interesting to know is whether HNZ get first dibs on all the loans that come through, picking out the good ones and leaving only the crappy ones to retail investors. Anyone know how that works?

He who pays the piper calls the tune ,would apply here, I would think.!!

[percy]

Well done, HNZ!

Not subject to the Australian prudential body APRA's capital requirements, of course.

;)
Off course.
Yet if they were they would not need to raise further capital.

[Beagle]

I wasn't surprised by the substantial increase in loan provisioning, almost doubling, (reflecting my previously articulated concerns about no and low deposit lending and unsecured lending), but to be fair after such a dramatic increase in provisioning the profit result was solid, reflecting stronger margins on those sort of loans.

What did very pleasantly surprise me was the loans to sharemilkers only comprise 6.6% of their dairy loan book meaning the vast majority of their dairy loans are secured over land and buildings. This should give shareholders some comfort going forward.

After a 20 cent correction and the passage of several months of time since I sold out at calling it fair value at $1.32 and having thought the SP was over-valued for some time and been correct, I am now happy to call this as fairly valued trading cum a fully imputed 4.5 cent divvy. Long term investment trading through the trough of the present cycle these are probably not a bad buy as part of a well diversified portfolio, at these sort of depressed level's.
Disc - Bought back in a modest stake this afternoon.

[couta1]

Roger please warn me by pm if your thinking of buying back into Sum, the shock would be just too much for one to take otherwise:eek2:

[winner69]

Been surprised how muted the response to the announcement has been. I would have their would be heaps of excitement today on here.

Just sussed why - I must have too many posters on the ignore list.

[trader_jackson]

Yes I am also quite surprised... when they came out with the market updated recently (prior to the results), the share price rallied... today the actual results are out, even better than the market update and nobody seems to care to much... very very surprising...

[jonu]

Yes I am also quite surprised... when they came out with the market updated recently (prior to the results), the share price rallied... today the actual results are out, even better than the market update and nobody seems to care to much... very very surprising...

There has been heavy selling into the good news, but the price has held which is always good. Seller/sellers have been reloading at 113 all arvo. Once whoever it is has unloaded I think it looks onwards and upwards (famous last words:scared:)

[percy]

Tainted by Australian Banks.
ANZ Bank's $3 billion capital raise has correctly spooked the market.The $3 billion is partly to meet regulatory requirements.
ALL Australian banks have to hold more capital to mitigate the risk of losses on home loans.!
ANZ's has further increased provisions by 13% mainly mining and agriculture.
So what has this to do with HNZ?
Capital.HNZ have excess capital.More than meets The Reserve Bank of NZ requirements,and possibility of share buy back.Capital return?
Australian home loans.HNZ's only exposure is via Australian REL loans.Not sure regulatory requirements.
Australian mining.HNZ have no exposure to this sector.
Dairying in NZ.From Craig's research 28/7/2015.HNZ's exposure to the slowing dairy sector IS NOT significant 7.6% of its total loan book.Craigs estimate other banks exposure is up to 15%.
HNZ announcement 30th July 2015.....2016 Estimated NPAT of $51mil to $55 mil.This includes allowance for estimated impairments.

Share prices follow earnings.....buy earnings growth.[steve fleming]. HNZ has earnings growth.
Share prices are driven by increasing dividends... HNZ are increasing dividends.
Banks have great capacity to pay increasing dividends.HNZ are a bank.


"In the land of the blind,the one-eyed man is king".


Back to ANZ and the other Australian Banks.......They have been very rewarding for investors,and will continue to be for the long term investor..

I am very pleased today's result confirmed what I have been saying.
Will repeat;
"Share prices follow earnings....buy earnings growth...[Steve Fleming].
Share prices are driven by increasing dividends.

[Beagle]

Roger please warn me by pm if your thinking of buying back into Sum, the shock would be just too much for one to take otherwise:eek2:

:lol: No chance of that mate. Wonder if my other mates will start talking to me again or whether my conduct is still considered unbecoming of a gentleman.
Just called it as I saw it and anyone that followed me exited at $1.32 and is back in at $1.12/3...not too shabby seeing as there were no dividends in the intervening months...but apparently I'm the biggest (expletive deleted) out there according to some, go figure ? Still.... I'd rather have one real friend for 10 fair weather ones...opps, sorry, I digress.

[trader_jackson]

Seems to be very heavy selling (and buying) today, about 0.81% of the company has changed hands... this can be the only logical reason for keeping the price depressed... but who would want to sell after such great results?

[janner]

Just called it as I saw it

Only way to go really.

[Cricketfan]

I wasn't surprised by the substantial increase in loan provisioning, almost doubling, (reflecting my previously articulated concerns about no and low deposit lending and unsecured lending), but to be fair after such a dramatic increase in provisioning the profit result was solid, reflecting stronger margins on those sort of loans.

What did very pleasantly surprise me was the loans to sharemilkers only comprise 6.6% of their dairy loan book meaning the vast majority of their dairy loans are secured over land and buildings. This should give shareholders some comfort going forward.

After a 20 cent correction and the passage of several months of time since I sold out at calling it fair value at $1.32 and having thought the SP was over-valued for some time and been correct, I am now happy to call this as fairly valued trading cum a fully imputed 4.5 cent divvy. Long term investment trading through the trough of the present cycle these are probably not a bad buy as part of a well diversified portfolio, at these sort of depressed level's.
Disc - Bought back in a modest stake this afternoon.

Wow, what happened to the doom and gloom from the last month or so? The tone of your posts made it seem like the sky was falling and even a decent FY result wouldn't matter because it's the following year that will be horrendous.

[Hoop]

I am very pleased today's result confirmed what I have been saying.
Will repeat;
"Share prices follow earnings....buy earnings growth...[Steve Fleming].
Share prices are driven by increasing dividends.

My opinion is probably worth diddly-squat ..
As I see things Earnings follow the share price .....The FY announcement is historic. Accumulating earnings over a period from July 1 2014 to June 30 2015..the share price is the "now" and "forwarding looking"..In other words if a company suddenly gets into the poop the share price will drop earning result will follow. Yes Mr Market can and does react by correcting if the earnings announcement is different to that forecasted or perceived.

I agree mostly with the second statement...It theoretical based though, but I think my interpretation would include a balanced" both eyes open" perception, such as, if the divvy increases and earnings decrease below the divvy the share price would be driven down due to capital erosion..increased divvy and increased earnings share price driven up....No divvy but big increase in earnings (e.g to fund an acquisition)..shareprice??? and so on.

It seems Mr Market perceived HNZ FY result to what was announced...looking forward could be what is keeping the share price suppressed ...eh

[belted galloway]

After having a quick look through the financials I have a few points.

Deposits have increased from 1,736,750,000 to 2,097,458,000, with the company expecting a similar level of growth in FY16.

Experiencing good growth in the reverse mortgage book, which is not at the expense of margin.

Past due but not impaired receivables have increased from 75,595,000 to 87,572,000

It was very kind of directors to reward themselves with a 4% increase in director’s fees to now over $900,000.

I cannot really understand how the 12% interest in Ora HQ Limited is related to the core business activities. The only constellation I can find is they are using it to funnel business lending: http://heartland.connect.orahq.com/


Now to the rural segment that has been of concern recently.
Heartland provide some nice grading of their portfolio.
"The Judgement portfolio consists mainly of Business and Rural lending. Judgement loans relate to loans where an on-going and detailed working relationship with the customer has been developed.
Judgement loans are individually risk graded based on loan status, financial information, security and debt servicing ability. Exposures in the Judgement portfolio are credit risk graded by an internal risk grading mechanism.
The Group typically finances new loans in risk grades 2 to 5 of the Judgement portfolio."

Rural judgement portfolio
Grade 1 – Very Strong $533,000
Grade 2 - Strong $8,019,000
Grade 3 - Sound $17,363,000
Grade 4 - Adequate $101,029,000
Grade 5 - Acceptable $343,645,000
Grade 6 - Monitor $49,276,000
Grade 7 - Substandard $3,484,000
Grade 8 - Doubtful $761,000
Grade 9 - At risk of loss - 0

Dairy exposure is $218m, of which only $13.5m is sharemilkers. This is very reassuring, as these are the ones facing the greatest risk of default.


Overall a good result. One of those companies that just does what they say they’ll do. With strong leadership and governance they are consistently growing ROE, NP and dividends year on year, which is outstanding.
Definitely a good addition to the portfolio. The depressed share price has been a great buying opportunity to add to my holding.

[stoploss]

I wasn't surprised by the substantial increase in loan provisioning, almost doubling, (reflecting my previously articulated concerns about no and low deposit lending and unsecured lending), but to be fair after such a dramatic increase in provisioning the profit result was solid, reflecting stronger margins on those sort of loans.

What did very pleasantly surprise me was the loans to sharemilkers only comprise 6.6% of their dairy loan book meaning the vast majority of their dairy loans are secured over land and buildings. This should give shareholders some comfort going forward.

After a 20 cent correction and the passage of several months of time since I sold out at calling it fair value at $1.32 and having thought the SP was over-valued for some time and been correct, I am now happy to call this as fairly valued trading cum a fully imputed 4.5 cent divvy. Long term investment trading through the trough of the present cycle these are probably not a bad buy as part of a well diversified portfolio, at these sort of depressed level's.
Disc - Bought back in a modest stake this afternoon.

Roger biggest backflip since the greens on the RWC opening hours , what about the rating agencies lol .....but congrats for declaring this ...
Have to update your "trading Song" from
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5HTwlY_O64

to
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFiSI-X4IcA

Cheers S/L
enjoy :)

[Cricketfan]

Overall a good result. One of those companies that just does what they say they’ll do. With strong leadership and governance they are consistently growing ROE, NP and dividends year on year, which is outstanding.
Definitely a good addition to the portfolio. The depressed share price has been a great buying opportunity to add to my holding.

Isn't it funny how much panic (at least on this forum) there's been in the last month or so, despite HNZ giving an update about their low exposure to dairy? Yet it's just business as usual, maybe a slightly higher risk because of dairy, but not exactly worth the fuss that some people have been making here.

[Joshuatree]

Roger biggest backflip since the greens on the RWC opening hours , what about the rating agencies lol .....but congrats for declaring this ...
Have to update your "trading Song" from
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5HTwlY_O64

to
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFiSI-X4IcA

Cheers S/L
enjoy :)

That ridley bent song is pretty good stop loss. Lively and upbeat:t_up:.Appropriate
Thanks to percy for keeping the faith with good reasoning and sensible logic, hats off.

[Joshuatree]

Isn't it funny how much panic (at least on this forum) there's been in the last month or so, despite HNZ giving an update about their low exposure to dairy? Yet it's just business as usual, maybe a slightly higher risk because of dairy, but not exactly worth the fuss that some people have been making here.

Funny haha and funny peculiar:lol::bored:

[K1W1G0LD]

Isn't it funny how much panic (at least on this forum) there's been in the last month or so, despite HNZ giving an update about their low exposure to dairy? Yet it's just business as usual, maybe a slightly higher risk because of dairy, but not exactly worth the fuss that some people have been making here.

Yes unwarranted panic due to crystal ball gazing . and BS re-Ostriches!!
No-one can predict the future no matter how reasoned their arguments may be . Not needed with this company , they have proven themselves over time and with current management will continue to do so.
Onwards and Upwards , eh Percy!!

[nextbigthing]

1) Excellent results announcement. Sorry, stunning!

2) Dairy up almost 15% overnight and lower than thought sharemilker loans.

3) Share buyback

4) Rogers tick of approval buying back in

All looking pretty positive. Could be the perfect storm for shareprice increase.

https://www.globaldairytrade.info

[percy]

Yes unwarranted panic due to crystal ball gazing . and BS re-Ostriches!!
No-one can predict the future no matter how reasoned their arguments may be . Not needed with this company , they have proven themselves over time and with current management will continue to do so.
Onwards and Upwards , eh Percy!!

Certainly is Onwards and Upwards.
Thanks to people who have phoned me,emailed me and sent PMs.
The one I enjoyed the most:
"Sitting here in Russia watching them eat Umble pie."

[couta1]

Just a quick question re participating in the DRP, do you still receive imputation credits which can be used in the normal fashion?

[blackcap]

Just a quick question re participating in the DRP, do you still receive imputation credits which can be used in the normal fashion?

Yes you do. The DRP is really where they take your net dividend and use that money to buy (allocate or issue) shares to you. So your dividend statement will be the same as if you had not participated but on it will also show how many shares you were allocated at what cost. Hope that helps.

[couta1]

Thanks blackcap.

[trader_jackson]

If heartland continues to be so cheap (ie below $1.15) I will probably take the DRP over the cash dividend!

[blockhead]

One swallow does not indicate arrival of spring but the promising rise in GDT might ease a bit of concern over HNZ's exposure to dairy farms, a lift up over the $1.14 I paid yesterday I am hoping.

[janner]

One swallow does not indicate arrival of spring but the promising rise in GDT might ease a bit of concern over HNZ's exposure to dairy farms, a lift up over the $1.14 I paid yesterday I am hoping.

Keep the faith Brother... and ye shall reap.. ( Or posibly weep ) :-))))

DYOR..

Disc. Holding

[couta1]

One swallow does not indicate arrival of spring but the promising rise in GDT might ease a bit of concern over HNZ's exposure to dairy farms, a lift up over the $1.14 I paid yesterday I am hoping.
$1.14 is an excellent price, I'm sure there are many like myself holding at a higher entry price and were still happy:cool:

[Beagle]

The criticism is water off a ducks back to me. Fact is I called it right as fully valued at $1.32 when dairy was more robust earlier in the year and on balance, (and I will put this is bold as some seemed to have missed me making this point before) seeing as HNZ have only now confirmed sharemilker loan exposure is only 6.6% of their dairy loan book) their exposure to the highest risk sector of dairy is modest.

I stand by earlier comments that there will be serious losses in the dairy loan book but for those that can't work the numbers let me help you.

Since selling at $1.32 a 20 cent reduction in SP equates to a reduction in market capitalisation of $94m. By my judgement that's enough taking into account all the challenges the company now faces in regard to their most at risk parts of the loan book, including dairy and unsecured lending. No backflip folks, just an acceptance with the new information HNZ posted yesterday including their ability to make $48m after doubling their loan provisioning to $12m for the year that the company can make its way through the dairy trough and the wiping of $94m off their market cap is sufficient for me to consider them to be again fair value, as opposed to over-valued when they were higher.

Some have kept the faith and I have worked the over-valued situation on HNZ and re-deployed those funds for the last few months into SCL which is up 25% while contemporaneously avoiding a 15% decline in HNZ's SP. Sensible, pragmatic and profitable investing I would have thought. Disc: I still own Scales.

P.S. I was aware of the dairy futures price when buying back in yesterday.

[RGR367]

$1.14 is an excellent price, I'm sure there are many like myself holding at a higher entry price and were still happy:cool:

Yes and no for me but it's the price you pay for getting me to know this stock initially. Nice exchanges from opposing camps actually and I appreciated both views from all of you Guys. Cheers!!!

[belted galloway]

The criticism is water off a ducks back to me. Fact is I called it right as fully valued at $1.32 when dairy was more robust earlier in the year and on balance, (and I will put this is bold as some seemed to have missed me making this point before) seeing as HNZ have only now confirmed sharemilker loan exposure is only 6.6% of their dairy loan book) their exposure to the highest risk sector of dairy is modest.

Great respect for you Roger. In hindsight you made the right call at the time.

Up to $1.15 on opening. Hopefully this is the beginning on a nice trend reversal.

[sb9]

The world is happy place again, dairy price moving up, gentailers got good management plans, apples taste lot better, tourism booming...the list goes on...

[Beagle]

Great respect for you Rodger. In hindsight you made the right call at the time.

Up to $1.15 on opening. Hopefully this is the beginning on a nice trend reversal.

Thanks mate. There's no harm in selling something you think is over-valued and buying back in later after a big fall. I did the same with GNE, selling at $2.30, (and posting my reasons for doing so) and got back in very recently at $1.70.

Nothing in the rule book that says you have to stay wedded to a company through thick and thin :)

[sb9]

Glad I bought another chunk $1.10 last week, all good

[RGR367]

Thanks mate. There's no harm in selling something you think is over-valued and buying back in later after a big fall. I did the same with GNE, selling at $2.30 and got back in very recently at $1.70.

Nothing in the rule book that says you have to stay wedded to a company through thick and thin :)

So true Roger. So true :)

[Joshuatree]

Nothing in the rule book that says you have to stay wedded to a company through thick and thin :)

Yes I suspect now is a good time to invest in HNZ looking through the current business cycle to better times ahead.[/QUOTE]

We already knew that Roger what took you so long;) .Over 100 down ramps later;)

[janner]

The criticism is water off a ducks back to me.

As it should be.. You have your convictions .. Which you do explain.

" Fact is I called it right as fully valued at $1.32 when dairy was more robust earlier in the year and on balance, (and I will put this is bold as some seemed to have missed me making this point before) seeing as HNZ have only now confirmed sharemilker loan exposure is only 6.6% of their dairy loan book) their exposure to the highest risk sector of dairy is modest. "

True..

" No backflip folks, just an acceptance with the new information HNZ posted yesterday including their ability to make $48m after doubling their loan provisioning to $12m for the year that the company can make its way through the dairy trough and the wiping of $94m off their market cap is sufficient for me to consider them to be again fair value, as opposed to over-valued when they were higher."

Pragmatic..

"Some have kept the faith "

Who did not make as much as you

" P.S. I was aware of the dairy futures price when buying back in yesterday.

All sounds good advice. One way of looking at investment

Buffet is not for everyone :-)))

Disc. Hold. Held. and still Hold.

[winner69]

My forecast for FY15 was $51m - came in at $48m. I expected more from HER and of course under forecast bad debts otherwise most of my other assumptions were about right.

Looking forward to FY16 main things are - HER apparently gaining momentum so I will factor into FY15. Bad debts can't possibly double again in FY16 as I feel there was a lot of fat was built into the FY15 numbers.

So with continued efficiencies and ongoing organic growth my forecast fit FY16 is $56m - $60m. That's an eps of 12.7 cents and a dividend of 9 cents,

Share price target in excess of $1.50 in a years time, even more if Jeff continues to ramp the undervalued stock story up.

Buying heaps at 112/113 yesterday to me was an even more compelling buy than it was at 92cents back last August or whenever it was. That was a great trade but ill discipline took some of profits away but not complaining.

Yes $1.50 on the cards ....yippee

I took Percy's advice - As always it is up to each of us to do our own research and invest accordingly

[jonu]

Just as expected. Nothing new except for a bit of tinkering around the edges to get to $48.2m

Even that Tier 2 stuff is not new. Love banks borrowing to give back to shareholders.

Underwhelming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So Winner, was this quote about holding the open down while you backed up the truck?:p

[winner69]

So Winner, was this quote about holding the open down while you backed up the truck?:p

No, it was in response to the stunning stunning crap that was posted.

Met expectations so what's 'stunning' ....nothing really new = 'underwhelming'

No ulterior motive

[Harvey Specter]

My forecast for FY15 was $51m - came in at $48m.Impairments increased by $6m so if the economy had stayed strong for an extra couple of months you could have been right. Will those impairments be realised or will they supercharge next years profits when they reverse??

[winner69]

Impairments increased by $6m so if the economy had stayed strong for an extra couple of months you could have been right. Will those impairments be realised or will they supercharge next years profits when they reverse??

I reckon supercharge might be the key word in that statement.

[Harvey Specter]

I reckon supercharge might be the key word in that statement.Fingers crossed - I'm locked and loaded.

Auditors are a conservative bunch so don't think it would have been hard to convinced them to increase the impairment with whats been going on in the world (and NZ).

[winner69]

A bit mischievous there winner ! They will reduce Tier 1 capital and issue some Tier 2 capital but regulatory minimum capital ratios will reduce only from the very healthy 12.9% to 12.5%. Pretty healthy don't you think ?

Iceman, what form do you think this Tier 2 capital will take?

[Hoop]

Rallied off a low point 108c (is it bottom?) to be at 115c up 2c at time of posting.
HNZ still in downtrend and trying to regain status back into the downtrending channel.
One buy signal triggered on medium term daily chart.. breaking 112c resistance (one swallow doesn't make a summer).
MACD crossing today (buy signal in the margin of error)
DMI closing but haven't crossed.
117c Resistance is a hurdle then all the EMA's +119c resistance........A lot of work still to be done before risk is lowered and mass buy signals

Still a terrible chart but looking a lot better than it was as most indicators have fired buy signals on the very short term hourly chart (not shown)... Short term moves do not always signal a medium or long term move.


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/HNZ18082015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/HNZ18082015.png.html)

[Beagle]

Impairments increased by $6m so if the economy had stayed strong for an extra couple of months you could have been right. Will those impairments be realised or will they supercharge next years profits when they reverse??

Agreed. But Far more likely they'll simply be reallocated against a different section of the loan book...you know where...

[nextbigthing]

Agreed. But Far more likely they'll simply be reallocated against a different section of the loan book...you know where...

The dividend portion :t_up: :D

[iceman]

Iceman, what form do you think this Tier 2 capital will take?

I certainly hope its not going to be through undisclosed or revaluation reserves, nor do I expect that from the conservative and good management of HNZ. I would expect Bonds. Yes of course that is borrowing but there is nothing wrong with doing that after several years of successfully using Tier 1 Capital (sh funds) to steadily build up assets, assets that are now delivering good returns.

[winner69]

I certainly hope its not going to be through undisclosed or revaluation reserves, nor do I expect that from the conservative and good management of HNZ. I would expect Bonds. Yes of course that is borrowing but there is nothing wrong with doing that after several years of successfully using Tier 1 Capital (sh funds) to steadily build up assets, assets that are now delivering good returns.

That's how I see it as well.

Nothing like a bit of good old financial engineering is there.

Was a suggestion that this could be used for acquisitions instead.

[winner69]

Not thar long ago when the share price was languishing in the low 80s nearly every second post mentioned that as NTA was 89 cents the share price was cheap as.

I see that in the latest accounts NTA is still 89 cents

At least the share price is higher now, that's good..

[Beagle]

Yep, Basil 3 compliant debt issues are all the rage. Debt is usually subordinated and unsecured and perpetual in nature with callable future options for the issuer to redeem so its treated as Tier 2 capital in terms of the capital adequacy requirements of the Reserve Bank. Most of the Aussie banks have made issues. They can probably get one away at circa 6.5- 7% and all the grannies and orphans will rush it and be happy to have such a wonderful fixed interest investment opportunity. How many of them realise the risks and what's implied by the Reserve Banks open bank resolution is another matter but not really our concern is it :) A $100m issue with rights to accept oversubscriptions to another $100m would give them a lot of financial flexibility wouldn't it !

[tim23]

Ultimately the dividend will drive the price not a chart.

[ghostrider68]

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/043015/what-difference-between-tier-1-capital-and-tier-2-capital.asp

Here's a good link for anyone wanting to understand what banking tiers are.

[winner69]

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/043015/what-difference-between-tier-1-capital-and-tier-2-capital.asp

Here's a good link for anyone wanting to understand what banking tiers are.

Ghost rider - if you want to see how it works in NZ read his

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/reserve_bank_bulletin/2015/2015may78-5.pdf

Think it latest version. If ot assume Xerof will post a better link

[Hoop]

Ultimately the dividend will drive the price not a chart.

Price driven downwards when the dividend goes ex...eh:D...sorry Tim couldn't resist

A chart does not drive price...how can it ???...How can you ever think that it could :confused:

The above statements don't really apply or matter because overall its investor behaviour that drives the Share Price

...and that where charts become in handy....... as they record and show visually as a picture past to the present trading behaviour ....trends, patterns, price limits, etc

To a Chartist a chart over a period of time shows changes in investor behaviour... changes in attitude or perception of the company (trading Trends or trading pattern breakouts)...Changing limits or demands that investors are willing to pay to buy that stock at any certain time or period...and so on...

Chart behaviour is an extension of human (animal) group behaviour and any change in that group behaviour can be detected on charts which we use as signals to either enter or exit that stock...Sort of like living in a room with an elephant, when your room mate gets that pissed off look in his eye (a signal) the best chance of survival is to minimise the risk by exiting the room. :)

[Xerof]

Ghost rider - if you want to see how it works in NZ read his

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/reserve_bank_bulletin/2015/2015may78-5.pdf

Think it latest version. If ot assume Xerof will post a better link

yep, Winner, thats a good source alright. It says that in 2010, Basel 111 replaced Basil Faulty (GFC caught him out) :D

[winner69]

yep, Winner, thats a good source alright. It says that in 2010, Basel 111 replaced Basil Faulty (GFC caught him out) :D

And one day even Basel III will be found wanting methinks

Even capital ratios of 11%/12% are pretty high leverage compared to the good old days.

[trader_jackson]

There must be a huge seller in the market right now (hence the depressed share price)... there are (and have been) a lot of sell orders around the $1.15 mark... any idea as to who it would be?

[Xerof]

Doesn't help to know who really, it's the collective "them"

but Hoop's chart this morning was a nice perspective of where it's at - retesting the breakdown line out of the channel.

check if the elephant looks pissed off......

[percy]

Well one broking firm has been "holding itself at the ready."
Chris Lee & Partners Ltd.
Market News...27th July 2015.
Bank Issues-
We maintain our mail list for the prospect of subordinated bond offerings from the NZ banks.

[ziggy415]

Well one broking firm has been "holding itself at the ready."
Chris Lee & Partners Ltd.
Market News...27th July 2015.
Bank Issues-
We maintain our mail list for the prospect of subordinated bond offerings from the NZ banks.will a bond issue put pressure on the sp or does it attract a different type of investor

[iceman]

will a bond issue put pressure on the sp or does it attract a different type of investor

Yes I think a different investor or at least a different part of an investors portfolio. Also given that at the same time they are considering a share buy back, I'd expect an upward push on the SP

[couta1]

will a bond issue put pressure on the sp or does it attract a different type of investor Bonds attract a more conservative type investor generally(Yikes that was me a few years ago) Would have no effect on the share price although it does change the companies liabilities.

[Beagle]

Bonds attract a more conservative type investor generally(Yikes that was me a few years ago) Would have no effect on the share price although it does change the companies liabilities.

Not a Basil 3 compliant issue mate...its treated as capital raised and then they can go and do lovely creative things like a share buy-back of the ordinary shares :) Does that count as an up-ramp :D

[winner69]

Not a Basil 3 compliant issue mate...its treated as capital raised and then they can go and do lovely creative things like a share buy-back of the ordinary shares :) Does that count as an up-ramp :D

And buying back shares good,especially with that pile of excessive capital being a drag on the balance sheet.

Buying back 10% of the shares would increase EPS by more than 1 cent and dividend should increase

Market uses same valuation ratios and just like that Heartland share worth 12/13 cents more. Yippee

If a buyback goes ahead my $1.40 becomes $1.50 plus

[percy]

Bonds attract a more conservative type investor generally(Yikes that was me a few years ago) Would have no effect on the share price although it does change the companies liabilities.

Depending on the size of the issue, it could have a significant affect on the share price.
A large issue means more funds available for the share buyback.
A share buyback will straight away improve ROE,EPS, and will result in HNZ having the capacity to increase the dividend further.

[Beagle]

And buying back shares good,especially with that pile of excessive capital being a drag on the balance sheet.

Buying back 10% of the shares would increase EPS by more than 1 cent and dividend should increase

Market uses same valuation ratios and just like that Heartland share worth 12/13 cents more. Yippee

If a buyback goes ahead my $1.40 becomes $1.50 plus

Absolutely mate although you're being a little conservative there. If they do a decent sized issue of say $100m plus oversubscriptions there's only 470m shares on issue so they could do a buy-back for 25% of the shares...then we get $1.60+++

[winner69]

PS - 10% buyback needs just over $50m. Easy

[ziggy415]

PS - 10% buyback needs just over $50m. Easy
sorry...cant get my head around a buy back when you borrow money to do it...it does look good for shareholders but doesnt add to company growth the way i see it

[trader_jackson]

On a more micro note, looks like the big sellers at $1.15 have stopped, I expect a nice lift over the coming week(s)

[percy]

sorry...cant get my head around a buy back when you borrow money to do it...it does look good for shareholders but doesnt add to company growth the way i see it

Google Share repurchase.
It is something an investor must understand.

[winner69]

Google Share repurchase.
It is something an investor must understand.

Yes do that to get an idea and a better understanding. It's all about financial engineering and capital efficiencies which also creates the illusion of greater wealth for shareholders. Main purpose though is probably to get management a bigger bonus

But never never read this

http://hussman.net/wmc/wmc150817.htm

[Beagle]

https://nzx.com/companies/HNZ/announcements/268573 Commentary on Share buy-back and positive effect on EPS is included in the results presentation.

[winner69]

https://nzx.com/companies/HNZ/announcements/268573 Commentary on Share buy-back and positive effect on EPS is included in the results presentation.

You forgot to mention the higher ROE as well

Amazing how a bit of financial sorcery really does magical things

Hope its a decent buyback .....$1.60 plus

[winner69]

I just love this chart from the presentation

About $39m of the total expenses are people costs. They did go up $4m from the year before but I presume they inherited some Seniors people and probably gave everybody a pay rise as well.

What the chart says is that our employees are coping very well with all that growth in loans - good on them for achieving a bit more. Couldn't have been working at full capacity in the past if they can do this.

Keep at guys and gals - we want you to be busier still, so keep working your butts off.

Means a fair chunk of the additional income falls through to our pockets as shareholders - isn't that how its meant to work

That line will continue to fall - yippee

And as a bonus we get to save what we paid Michael

[Beagle]

Saves a cool million bucks from memory doesn't it mate ?

[winner69]

Saves a cool million bucks from memory doesn't it mate ?

That was last year

Waiting to see the Annual Report to see what Jeff got paid.

Probabably over $2 million this year ......outrageous

(That be 5% of the people cost)

[belted galloway]

Good to see the main holders have been constant/adding over the last 6 months:


7535
7536

[belted galloway]

Double post

[Hoop]

Good to see the main holders have been constant/adding over the last 6 months:....

For the Newbies...spot what the big guys did wrong....

Yep... buying in a downtrend ....There could some with their top ups being some 20% poorer for their experience...Well done you bunch of Gurus

[Under Surveillance]

For the Newbies...spot what the big guys did wrong....

Yep... buying in a downtrend ....There could some with their top ups being some 20% poorer for their experience...Well done you bunch of Gurus
I've been kicking myself ever since I bought at 43 in a downtrend in March 2012.

[Joshuatree]

Thats the lowest entry I've seen yet US , awesome. Mine was 71c and i haven't averaged down or topped up on recent results; a bit of a sea change happening with Global uncertainty yet again so I'm watching my cash and planning on adding to it.

[percy]

I've been kicking myself ever since I bought at 43 in a downtrend in March 2012.

Absolute classic.!!!
...........................Must be post of the year.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[winner69]

Suppose some on that list took the Quadrant shares at $1.30 or whatever it was

The 2nd one down did

[winner69]

Looking good for the share price now

This will be first week since mid July the share price has gone UP

There's only been 6 weeks since February that the share price has gone up. Been pretty dismal eh.

The tide has turned. An uptrend has started

Close tomorrow at 118 .....end of next week 122......and so on ...

[couta1]

Looking good for the share price now

This will be first week since mid July the share price has gone UP

There's only been 6 weeks since February that the share price has gone up. Been pretty dismal eh.

The tide has turned. An uptrend has started

Close tomorrow at 118 .....end of next week 122......and so on ... Winner your back to your ramping best, you sounded almost depressed a while back.

[trader_jackson]

As I am now a holder I do hope (and sort of expect after such great results) for the share price to 'steadily climb' but what is your view, winner69, as to why the share price will, tomorrow, start increasing?

[winner69]

As I am now a holder I do hope (and sort of expect after such great results) for the share price to 'steadily climb' but what is your view, winner69, as to why the share price will, tomorrow, start increasing?

Some still digesting the stunning result and yet to buy in .......and isn't momentum a great thing.

Those are weekly close prices I mentioned. The end of the week is apparently when punters make sure they end up where they want to be - those a bit worried sell/lighten up and the keen ones make sure they have what they want. At least thats what one old time broker told me once.

[winner69]

Winner your back to your ramping best, you sounded almost depressed a while back.

Almost depressed because I was ill disciplined and only made 30% odd instead of 40% odd on the last trade.

As I said the other day buying at 112/113 is even more compelling than the 92 odd last September.

As Percy says - As always it is up to each of us to do our own research and invest accordingly

I trust my research

[sb9]

I would be happy with 1.20 for now, thx.

[Hoop]

I've been kicking myself ever since I bought at 43 in a downtrend in March 2012.


Absolute classic.!!!
...........................Must be post of the year.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I reckon.......:D:D;)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/HNZ20082015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/HNZ20082015.png.html)

[percy]

I reckon.......:D:D;)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/HNZ20082015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/HNZ20082015.png.html)

Rather confirms the 400day EMA has been the correct indicator..????!!!!! lol.
The uptrend remains intact, onwards and upwards.!!!

[janner]

Rather confirms the 400day EMA has been the correct indicator..????!!!!! lol.

Bit of a long shot there perc.. IMHO..

[janner]

Rather confirms the 400day EMA has been the correct indicator..????!!!!! lol.

Bit of a long shot there perc.. IMHO..

[janner]

Rather confirms the 400day EMA has been the correct indicator..????!!!!! lol.

Bit of a long shot there perc.. IMHO..

[janner]

Bit of a long shot there perc.. IMHO..

Ooops double up due to being a little gobsmacked.. :-))

[Hoop]

Ooops double up due to being a little gobsmacked.. :-))

A bit of a stutter there... Janner :D.


Rather confirms the 400day EMA has been the correct indicator..????!!!!! lol.
The uptrend remains intact, onwards and upwards.!!!

Janner quote...Bit of a long shot there perc.. IMHO..

Percy is correct HNZ is still in that very long uptrend (started on 5 march 2012 at 43c)..
That 1.08 price Thursday week ago touched the trendline and bounced off it which is good news....The not so good news is why it's had to fall 20% to touch it again during a period of reasonably good economic activity.

With hindsight if you can visualise that very long term trend line on the above chart...you can see the investor exuberance in Jan/Feb 2015 sudden rise

[percy]

I think this has been a rather unusual year.
Both FA and TA have been right,wrong,and right again.Or should that be wrong,right,and wrong again?? !! lol.
Director buying on FA,as he knew weakness in Australian banks,concerns of HNZ's dairy exposure etc were unfounded,as far as HNZ was concerned.
Chartist trading on sentiment were also right.
At present time the chart still does not look flash,while the fundamentals look great.

[Harvey Specter]

At present time the chart still does not look flash,while the fundamentals look great.I have more of a buy and prey approach but doesn't your statement mean you should be watching the chart closely for the time to buy? If the fundamentals are bad, there is no point even looking at the charts?

[percy]

I have more of a buy and prey approach but doesn't your statement mean you should be watching the chart closely for the time to buy? If the fundamentals are bad, there is no point even looking at the charts?

I ignored the charts when HNZ's share price went below the 200 day EMA.Was about $1.20 at the time.A very difficult decision.
Yet I do base most of my buying decisions on a company's share price moving ahead of the 200 day EMA.
Again, yesterday I broke my rule, when I brought SKL at $1.27 when the 200 day was $1.37...
Living dangerously or trusting my own judgement?

[Hoop]

...Living dangerously or trusting my own judgement?

Percy..if you see yourself as normally a disciplined investor, but now starting to bust your own rules, then you may be experiencing a behavioural condition called Investor Complacency (IC). It can occur to investors using all sorts of Investment Strategies...but it's more common with investors using a Passive Strategy with long periods of portfolio inaction such as Long term Investment Strategies applying the buy & hold method.
Investor complacency is mostly prevalent during the period between the later stages of the bull market cycle and the first/second stages of the bear market cycle

[trader_jackson]

Some huge buy orders in now... like everyone is trying to jump in, but the "cheap sell orders" are running out :t_up:

[winner69]

Some huge buy orders in now... like everyone is trying to jump in, but the "cheap sell orders" are running out :t_up:

Told you would take a few days for some to really digest the stunning result

They have and now acting .... with conviction

Do you watch breadth all day long?

[percy]

Percy..if you see yourself as normally a disciplined investor, but now starting to bust your own rules, then you may be experiencing a behavioural condition called Investor Complacency (IC). It can occur to investors using all sorts of Investment Strategies...but it's more common with investors using a Passive Strategy with long periods of portfolio inaction such as Long term Investment Strategies applying the buy & hold method.
Investor complacency is mostly prevalent during the period between the later stages of the bull market cycle and the first/second stages of the bear market cycle



Ruthless is the word that best describes my actions this reporting season.
Below my expectations,SOLD.
Above my expectations,BROUGHT.

[winner69]

Percy sees an intact uptrend (just intact) ---- I see a downtrend

Goodness knows where share price will go next week .... as Xerof says on another thread NZ shares have just become relatively a lot more expensive. Fundamentals don't count for much if this is a 'correction', its all about sentiment

A good week for Heartland share price last week after many weeks of going down.

But then I may not be a share holder by Tuesday if I have to close this trade out --- and wait for the sub $1 days before having another go

[Xerof]

Doesn't help to know who really, it's the collective "them"

but Hoop's chart this morning was a nice perspective of where it's at - retesting the breakdown line out of the channel.

check if the elephant looks pissed off......

I think the elephant might be pissed off...........

[DoctorG]

Is it going sub one dollar?
Is that the consensus?

[Beagle]

Is it going sub one dollar?
Is that the consensus?

If you'd asked me a couple of weeks ago I would have said maybe but there's certainly no consensus view on that otherwise without overstating the obvious, it would be there already.

I think they've shown they can still make good money in a tougher environment and with loan provisioning doubling to $12m they can hopefully weather the dairy storm without major damage.

People are down in the mouth because overseas shares are weak. I am pretty sure we will soon hear reassuring words from overseas central banks about keeping interest rates lower for longer. Whether this will placate investors nervous tendencies remains to be seen.

[winner69]

Is it going sub one dollar?
Is that the consensus?

What's consensus got to do with it?

Market is a funny place at times

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/HEARTLAND-NEW-ZEALAND-LTD-11344518/consensus/

Consensus broker view, Two outperform ratings and one Buy. Consensus fair value $1.33.

[winner69]

http://www.4-traders.com/HEARTLAND-NEW-ZEALAND-LTD-11344518/consensus/

Consensus broker view, Two outperform ratings and one Buy. Consensus fair value $1.33.

Think we need to Edison to do a valuation as well, that raise the consensus

[winner69]

Here's a little niche for Heartland

Help these well heeled Wellingtonians with a loan to pay their Kirks card off. Then tie them up as a potential client for life ....some (many) could need home equity release loans one day

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/71350375/kirkcaldie--stains-chases-14m-owing-on-its-green-store-cards

[Crackity]

:D Just for you Winner - dated 30 Oct 2014.

note they have the company address as United Kingdom - Is this correct or indicative of their thoroughness?

[winner69]

:D Just for you Winner - dated 30 Oct 2014.

note they have the company address as United Kingdom - Is this correct or indicative of their thoroughness?

Did I see a target of $2.25 embedded in that report?

[Crackity]

Did I see a target of $2.25 embedded in that report?


Possibly $22.50 based on Edisons previous stuff - more worrying is the share price graph on the far right goes to zero on Monday!

[winner69]

Possibly $22.50 based on Edisons previous stuff - more worrying is the share price graph on the far right goes to zero on Monday!

I did see that as well ...maybe they are gurus

[Crackity]

I did see that as well ...maybe they are gurus

This could be Edisons first ever sell recommendation

[winner69]

The days are long, the decades are short.

[winner69]

Heartland hanging in there quite well today

Hang in there you little battler ...keep fighting the market gloom - you are better than most

[Toasty]

Heartland hanging in there quite well today

Hang in there you little battler ...keep fighting the market gloom - you are better than most

I was actually hoping it would drop like the rest of the market. I would quite like a few more of these. A sea of red on my portfolio today. It would be nice to take advantage of what I hope is an opportunity.

[trader_jackson]

Its already a bargain... surprised it has dropped as much as it has...

Good to see people in management understand its a good bargain...

Head of Banking and CEO, purchasing 42 500 shares and 50 000 shares respectively, its when management buys you know its "dangerously undervalued" (like all the managers buying ARV stock, but that's for another thread)

[Beagle]

Most of the Aussie banks down ~ 4% today so relative to that HNZ doing okay.

[Joshuatree]

Its been great stock on a great run. Took the top off today along with some others, building some cash with tax free profits.Still holding plenty.

[Joshuatree]

Its been great stock on a great run. Took the top off today along with some others, building some cash .Still holding plenty in my investment portfolio.

[percy]

Heartland had a couple of good mentions in this week's Market News on www.chrislee.co.nz site.
What a disappointing day today was for me.Neither brought or sold anything.!!
In fact went for a walk down to the library.
Nice day for a walk.

[psychic]

Always encouraging when the those in the know tip more in...

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/219195.pdf

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/219196.pdf

[janner]

In fact went for a walk down to the library.
Nice day for a walk.

Tis a far far better thing you do than you have ever done before

[winner69]

Just remember - Valuations are the main driver of long-term returns, but the main driver of market returns over shorter horizons is the attitude of investors toward risk],

Risk on at the moment ... Heartland about fairly valued

Act accordingly

[Beagle]

Its scary out there that's for sure.

[Hoop]

For the Newbies...spot what the big guys did wrong....

Yep... buying in a downtrend ....There could some with their top ups being some 20% poorer for their experience...Well done you bunch of Gurus

A Lower high (20th Aug) followed by a lower low (today)..the 6.5 month downtrend continues....

[K1W1G0LD]

A Lower high (20th Aug) followed by a lower low (today)..the 6.5 month downtrend continues....

The current global turmoil is enough to tip quite a few normally solid stocks into a downtrend , too much TA at the expense of sound fundamentals here.

[Hoop]

The current global turmoil is enough to tip quite a few normally solid stocks into a downtrend , too much TA at the expense of sound fundamentals here.

Using TA and waiting for mass buy signals would have kept you "out" of of the fundamentally rosy looking HNZ since February 2015..and saved you from a capital loss in your present day portfolio....

.Hmmmm it seems you're in the know ...is it possible for you to show us what are the present fundamentals are as of today..as I can only refer back to what the fundamentals were ..an accumulation of historic data from last year up to the 30th June 2015..are those fundamentals still just as sound today??

[Arbitrage]

Buy in gloom....

[tim23]

Trouble in tough times all the wise guys come out did your chart tell you that SPK would boost their divvy (thats why the price is rising in a tough market)??

[Hoop]

Buy in gloom....

I don't think HNZ is in gloom...Its rosy....Its just the share price is in a downtrend and investors out there lack patience to be able to wait for trend reversal...Buying into a downtrend is a bad practice and a no..no..in the 101 investor handbook...
So...why do so many investors (many experienced + an odd fund manager or two :eek2:) ignore this basic discipline....

[Arbitrage]

No HNZ is not in gloom, it is just the market tide. I am buying. The dividend is not far away. Looking at my records and thinking they were expensive when I paid 83c for some in 2013. This is an opportunity.

[Hoop]

Trouble in tough times all the wise guys come out did your chart tell you that SPK would boost their divvy (thats why the price is rising in a tough market)??
a very poor post..

[tim23]

If its that poor hoop answer the question?

[Hoop]

If its that poor hoop answer the question?
Yes Tim it is poor posting,, because:..

...This is the Heartland thread.

...Re: Your off topic question ..I suggest you read .KW's thread Using TA to time entries and Exits (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits) .. it is an excellent thread and educational.... KW's first post sums it up well..

Hope this helps
Hoop

[Joshuatree]

I don't think HNZ is in gloom...Its rosy....Its just the share price is in a downtrend and investors out there lack patience to be able to wait for trend reversal...Buying into a downtrend is a bad practice and a no..no..in the 101 investor handbook...
So...why do so many investors (many experienced + an odd fund manager or two :eek2:) ignore this basic discipline....

Very pertinent point in volatile plus times Hoop. Sold more stocks off today on the bounce including some HNZ to get to my new cash target my margin of safety/ comfort zone of which like fingerprints will be unique.:sleep:

[Beagle]

Six green bars, I would have thought, gives a pretty obvious clue that people value someone with Hoop's technical analysis abilities.

[winner69]

Aust banks up heaps -- HNZ down heaps. Go figure

It's not fair.

[axe]

Aust banks up heaps -- HNZ down heaps. Go figure

It's not fair.

HNZ is just the little sheep of the banking family - it just follows the ozzie banks. It should have a good run tomorrow to catch up with the ozzies right?

[percy]

HNZ is just the little sheep of the banking family - it just follows the ozzie banks. It should have a good run tomorrow to catch up with the ozzies right?

Unfortunately you are most probably right.
I feel HNZ has been tainted by the Aussie Banks,and with unfounded concerns about HNZ's dairying exposure.
As I have posted before, their name Heartland, may have mistakenly been seen that HNZ is some kind of rural bank.
Time is the friend of good companies,and the enemy of poor companies.
HNZ is a very good company.
For the astute dividend chasers......Buying HNZ today and you will receive THREE DIVIDENDS over the next 403 days.!!! Time is our friend.!!! lol.

[Joshuatree]

Wow are you taking respnsibility for that recommendation percy!!.What happens when the div prop has gone and check what USA and asian mkts did today. Id edit that post if i was you.

[percy]

Time line.
11th May .......Major shareholder Greg Tomlinson increases his holding at $1.30.
Late July.........Brokers Craigs and FNZC research confirms HNZ are producing the goods.
30th July.........HNZ's update guidance is positive.
18th August....HNZ result.Record profit,low dairying exposure confirmed.Posible share buy back because of excess capital,positive,as it will increase ROE,EPS and most probably the dividend..Increased increased dividend announced.A fantastic result and outlook.
18th August...I buy more shares at $1.15.
24th August..CEO Jeff Greenslade buys shares at $1.15.
24th August ..Head of banking,Chris Flood buys shares at $1.16.
As per always, we must do our own research, and make up our own minds whether we buy,sell or hold any company's shares.

[winner69]

Time line.
11th May .......Major shareholder Greg Tomlinson increases his holding at $1.30.
Late July.........Brokers Craigs and FNZC research confirms HNZ are producing the goods.
30th July.........HNZ's update guidance is positive.
18th August....HNZ result.Record profit,low dairying exposure confirmed.Posible share buy back because of excess capital,positive,as it will increase ROE,EPS and most probably the dividend..Increased increased dividend announced.A fantastic result and outlook.
18th August...I buy more shares at $1.15.
24th August..CEO Jeff Greenslade buys shares at $1.15.
24th August ..Head of banking,Chris Flood buys shares at $1.16.
As per always, we must do our own research, and make up our own minds whether we buy,sell or hold any company's shares.

Timeline

HNZ in results presentation "Key drivers of growth are GDP and employment"

FNZC this week "30% chance if recession" ....leading to higher unemployment

HNZ next year maybe "poorer economic conditions than expected meant we did not meet growth expectations"