HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Baa_Baa]

Mike for God's sake don't as questions like that.

The moon is waxing crescent and Fibonacci has spoken.

Just like bulkowski knows that OCA earnings are on Friday and built it into his famed Double bottom.

Fibonacci sequence as you already know is a mathematical formulae that freaky occurs and reoccurs in numerous natural sciences. For charting market prices, it is just the points in between two share prices that might indicate potential market (population) sentiment. Funnily enough the strong Fib numbers do often indicate support or resistance to SP movements, the 0.618 in particular.

It's not necessary to deride it as it's just one of the very many share price performance indicators, trying to make some sense of market participants sentiment in a natural system of chaos (the market itself).

Bulkowski has no idea or interest in future earnings, or any fundamental analysis. His analysis is purely on price movements in a market and the patterns those form, and the probabilities of share price movement after the pattern has formed. It's just another lens into the market, with the sole purpose of 'timing' a buy and/or sell, with the ensuing greater or lesser probability that the price will move one way or the other.

All good traders make two trades at the same time, the buy with the limit sell, or the short sell with the limit buy. The spread between them changes based on the probability of the trade, low probability tight spread, high probability loose spread.

If someone on here posted that they've nailed a system for reading tea leaves or chicken entrails for improving their insights into timing their market buys and sells, albeit tempered by probabilities (statistics), before I suggest that they are deluded and mock the system, I would read everything I could find, thousands of pages over many years in excruciating detail (like you do FA), and then apply it myself to real world data, back test it across numerous use-cases, and make up my own mind whether it was Bulkowski, or Bull****.

The Fibonacci sequence of numbers 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, …, each of which, after the second, is the sum of the two previous numbers; that is, the nth Fibonacci number Fn = Fn − 1 + Fn− 2

https://thepatternsite.com/FibonacciTargets.html

:)

[SailorRob]

If someone on here posted that they've nailed a system for reading tea leaves or chicken entrails for improving their insights into timing their market buys and sells, albeit tempered by probabilities (statistics), before I suggest that they are deluded and mock the system, I would read everything I could find, thousands of pages over many years in excruciating detail :)

I would certainly do this if I had the time, but around 2 Billion people told me they have a system where they are going to a place called Heaven and essentially living in paradise for eternity as long as you follow a few simple rules, and so I decided to investigate as you suggest is prudent and I'm not even through the first Testament yet. Then I have the Quran.

[Baa_Baa]

I would certainly do this if I had the time, but around 2 Billion people told me they have a system where they are going to a place called Heaven and essentially living in paradise for eternity as long as you follow a few simple rules, and so I decided to investigate as you suggest is prudent and I'm not even through the first Testament yet. Then I have the Quran.

Ha ha, good one, if they help you time your buys and sells in the market then it will be worth it, but don't forget the Tanakh, the New Testament, the Analects of Confucius and the Rig Veda. When you're done with that if you're not old and decrepit, have a read of Bullkowski as well, download a free charting tool like Livecharts.com or Tradingview.com and have a play with that as well.

;)

[ValueNZ]

Baa_Baa what's this guys track record (CAGR)? Can't seem to find anything online.

[SailorRob]

Ha ha, good one, if they help you time your buys and sells in the market then it will be worth it, but don't forget the Tanakh, the New Testament, the Analects of Confucius and the Rig Veda. When you're done with that if you're not old and decrepit, have a read of Bullkowski as well, download a free charting tool like Livecharts.com or Tradingview.com and have a play with that as well.

;)


Nothing like free tools that can make you an unlimited amount of cash.

I've been a paid up member of Tradingview for many years, very good platform. Often you post charts and I think that the software looks dark ages compared to Tradingview, thought you didn't know about it.

[Baa_Baa]

Nothing like free tools that can make you an unlimited amount of cash.

I've been a paid up member of Tradingview for many years, very good platform. Often you post charts and I think that the software looks dark ages compared to Tradingview, thought you didn't know about it.

Investing.com IS the Tradingview charting platform, I only post simple charts when I do, not the ones that I have that are massively complicated with multiple analysis on them. That would just confuse most people.

In any event, my belief is that investing is about two things .. what ... and when. I enjoy your analysis on the 'what', it is more insightful and sophisticated than I have ever achieved, albeit my FA skills are enough to find what i think is a good investment and hopefully avoid too many duds.

I use my TA tools to decide the 'when'. I see no point in ignoring the market sentiment that prices (not values) our investments, it annoys me when I have made impetuous decisions to buy something only to see it available cheaper to buy next week or month, or leave too much money on the table selling too late.

Anyway, enjoy your posts about the what to buy, just trying to point out that there are tools that can be helpful with understanding the probabilities of when to buy, or sell.

[Baa_Baa]

Baa_Baa what's this guys track record (CAGR)? Can't seem to find anything online.

As far as I know, he's not a fund manager or anything like that and I've never seen him present himself in that light, so seems reasonable he wouldn't post his personal CAGR. Look through that ValueNZ, the guy is simply publishing his analysis and findings of the probabilities of market price movements based on analysis of many many thousands of scenarios. It's a probability analysis based on price trading, not value, and not a measurable fund.

[Balance]

Had a chat with one of my banking contacts yesterday regarding interest rates outlook and as an aside, his view on HGH.

They (the bank which btw is an international bank, not one of the locals) believe that the RBNZ has well and truly misread the weak state of the NZ economy and is well behind the curve. They are observing many very weak points already apparent in the economy (financial stress, retail spending, recession despite record net migration, weak property prices, declining tax take, increased unemployment despite record migration to Australia and big increases in insolvencies and receiverships) and are concerned that the RB will overdo using high interest rates to crunch inflation.

Especially when inflation is already heading lower (annualized March quarter was 2.4%) and will continue to go lower due to the above weak points. Domestic inflation being targeted by the RB is unlikely to come down in a big hurry given it's ever increasing local council rates, government charges and household servicing costs like insurance driving costs increases.

Net net, they believe the RB is going to have to cut rates sooner than later and cut sharply. He likened the RB to a drunken driver in charge of the monetary policy car driving along a windy road!

AS for HGH, his view (not the bank) is that buying Challenger Bank makes a lot of sense for one strong and compelling reason - access to cheaper funds courtesy of the Australian FCS deposit guarantee scheme. Australians do place their funds up to $250,000 with different banks to take advantage of the guarantee, say $250k with 4 banks than $1m with 1 bank. He thinks that's something which has been missed by many in the market.

[SailorRob]

Had a chat with one of my banking contacts yesterday regarding interest rates outlook and as an aside, his view on HGH.

They (the bank which btw is an international bank, not one of the locals) believe that the RBNZ has well and truly misread the weak state of the NZ economy and is well behind the curve. They are observing many very weak points already apparent in the economy (financial stress, retail spending, recession despite record net migration, weak property prices, declining tax take, increased unemployment despite record migration to Australia and big increases in insolvencies and receiverships) and are concerned that the RB will overdo using high interest rates to crunch inflation.

Especially when inflation is already heading lower (annualized March quarter was 2.4%) and will continue to go lower due to the above weak points. Domestic inflation being targeted by the RB is unlikely to come down in a big hurry given it's ever increasing local council rates, government charges and household servicing costs like insurance driving costs increases.

Net net, they believe the RB is going to have to cut rates sooner than later and cut sharply. He likened the RB to a drunken driver in charge of the monetary policy car driving along a windy road!

AS for HGH, his view (not the bank) is that buying Challenger Bank makes a lot of sense for one strong and compelling reason - access to cheaper funds courtesy of the Australian FCS deposit guarantee scheme. Australians do place their funds up to $250,000 with different banks to take advantage of the guarantee, say $250k with 4 banks than $1m with 1 bank. He thinks that's something which has been missed by many in the market.

What is your contacts track record on prior interest outlooks?

Why does he/she work for a wage?

Why have the RBNZ missed the points you raise when all are public knowledge?

[Ggcc]

What is your contacts track record on prior interest outlooks?

Why does he/she work for a wage?

Why have the RBNZ missed the points you raise when all are public knowledge?
I feel many people in the banking industry choose to work for status and networking.

[bull....]

I would certainly do this if I had the time, but around 2 Billion people told me they have a system where they are going to a place called Heaven and essentially living in paradise for eternity as long as you follow a few simple rules, and so I decided to investigate as you suggest is prudent and I'm not even through the first Testament yet. Then I have the Quran.

yes 2 billion people believe in fib levels so with that believe it becomes self reinforcing in our march towards first level.

[bull....]

Mike Hosking then interviewed Orr, who criticised the lack of competition between New Zealand banks.
“There is a total lack of competition between the big four [banks].
”They have pricing power... we stand completely beside what we do, and that big four grip must be broken, and it will be broken by innovative products.”

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/listen-live-finance-minister-nicola-willis-on-latest-ocr-decision/7GUJDGJUUNFU5K3Y3JYWZ3P3H4/

hgh got an innovative product coming ?

[jonu]

Why have the RBNZ missed the points you raise when all are public knowledge?

That, surely, is a question for the incompetent twit we have running the RBNZ on a fat salary for an extended term (thanks Robbo). I knew we were in trouble when Orr got in the seat and started spouting stuff about Tanemahuta.

[Balance]

That, surely, is a question for the incompetent twit we have running the RBNZ on a fat salary for an extended term (thanks Robbo). I knew we were in trouble when Orr got in the seat and started spouting stuff about Tanemahuta.

Please don’t insult twits.

Orr is a ‘class A’ buffoon who completely fxxked up monetary settings during 2020 to 2022 (along with that *itch Ardern) and landed NZ in the economic mess which he is dragging out to save his own skin and job.

What a freaking joke Orr is. Imagine his thought process when he is incorporating Maori myths and legends into monetary policies!

Seen anyone or anybody outside of Robbo or the Labour Party endorsing him as having done a good job?

[Traderx]

Was in HGH after I bought during the selldown by George Kerr/PGC all those years ago at between 52c to 82c. George of course sold out to the ChCh 'mafia' for 56c. Was very tasty taking a 6 digit gain years later when HGH traded above $2.00.

I have been closely following HGH again since I sold out at $1.78 (took a marginal 3c hit on the way out on my second foray back into the stock) and have just started buying back.

Have a look at the chart below of the banking stocks (WBC, ANZ, NAB, CBA and HGH) and one can observe that they move in unison overall, reflecting the dynamics at play (economic, interest rates and profitability) in the Australasian banking industry.

HGH was following the pattern until late 2023/early 2024 when it became clear to the market that the Challenger Bank acquisition was going ahead and HGH was going to have to do another CR ($200m was raised in 2022) to fund the acquisition. One can see that while the other banks' share prices started recovering, HGH's sp continued to drop.

Hardly surprising as two $200m CRs ($400m) within 18 months are beyond the appetite of shareholders to absorb.

So we are now in the post CR and post Challenger Bank acquisition trading period. There are the flippers who took up the rights and underwrote the CR at $1.00 who are selling out for a quick trade (good on them) or cutting their loss.

I do not expect the selling to continue for much longer (another week perhaps) as it makes little sense to sell out at under $1.00 although the underwriters' break-even price is more like 97c (3% underwriting fee).

I am calling 96c the bottom and expect HGH's sp to track back towards what the other banks are trading at in the next 12 months. I would be disappointed (and wrong) if the sp does not hit $1.25 by end of 2024.

Now fire away your arrows and throw your rocks. Just remember though that I sold at over $2.00 and then, bailed out at $1.78 in my second foray and am buying back at $1.00 +/-.

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/chart/HGH.NZ#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI 6MSwidGltZVVuaXQiOm51bGwsImNhbmRsZVdpZHRoIjo2LjY5N zMxODAwNzY2MjgzNSwiZmxpcHBlZCI6ZmFsc2UsInZvbHVtZVV uZGVybGF5IjpmYWxzZSwiYWRqIjp0cnVlLCJjcm9zc2hhaXIiO nRydWUsImNoYXJ0VHlwZSI6ImxpbmUiLCJleHRlbmRlZCI6ZmF sc2UsIm1hcmtldFNlc3Npb25zIjp7fSwiYWdncmVnYXRpb25Ue XBlIjoib2hsYyIsImNoYXJ0U2NhbGUiOiJwZXJjZW50IiwicGF uZWxzIjp7ImNoYXJ0Ijp7InBlcmNlbnQiOjEsImRpc3BsYXkiO iJIR0guTloiLCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsImluZGV4Ijo wLCJ5QXhpcyI6eyJuYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwb3NpdGlvbiI6b nVsbH0sInlheGlzTEhTIjpbXSwieWF4aXNSSFMiOlsiY2hhcnQ iXX19LCJsaW5lV2lkdGgiOjIsInN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdW5kI jp0cnVlLCJldmVudHMiOnRydWUsImNvbG9yIjoiIzAwODFmMiI sInN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdWQiOnRydWUsInN5bWJvbHMiOlt7I nN5bWJvbCI6IkhHSC5OWiIsInN5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1 ib2wiOiJIR0guTloiLCJxdW90ZVR5cGUiOiJFUVVJVFkiLCJle GNoYW5nZVRpbWVab25lIjoiUGFjaWZpYy9BdWNrbGFuZCJ9LCJ wZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJ3ZWVrIiwidGltZ VVuaXQiOm51bGwsInNldFNwYW4iOnsibXVsdGlwbGllciI6NSw iYmFzZSI6InllYXIiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6eyJwZXJpb2QiO jEsImludGVydmFsIjoid2VlayJ9fX0seyJzeW1ib2wiOiJXQkM uQVgiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiV0JDLkFYI n0sInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJ 0aW1lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwic2V0U3BhbiI6eyJtdWx0aXBsaWVyI jo1LCJiYXNlIjoieWVhciIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5Ijp7InBlcml vZCI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJ3ZWVrIn19LCJpZCI6IldCQy5BW CIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY29sb3IiOiIjNzJkM2ZmIiwid2l kdGgiOjIsImlzQ29tcGFyaXNvbiI6dHJ1ZSwic2hhcmVZQXhpc yI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmp lY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiV0JDLkFYIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhc nQiLCJmaWxsR2FwcyI6ZmFsc2UsImFjdGlvbiI6ImFkZC1zZXJ pZXMiLCJzeW1ib2wiOiJXQkMuQVgiLCJnYXBEaXNwbGF5U3R5b GUiOiJ0cmFuc3BhcmVudCIsIm5hbWUiOiJXQkMuQVgiLCJvdmV yQ2hhcnQiOnRydWUsInVzZUNoYXJ0TGVnZW5kIjp0cnVlLCJoZ WlnaHRQZXJjZW50YWdlIjowLjcsIm9wYWNpdHkiOjEsImhpZ2h saWdodGFibGUiOnRydWUsInR5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwic3R5bGUiO iJzdHhfbGluZV9jaGFydCIsImhpZ2hsaWdodCI6ZmFsc2V9fSx 7InN5bWJvbCI6IkFOWi5BWCIsInN5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJze W1ib2wiOiJBTlouQVgifSwicGVyaW9kaWNpdHkiOjEsImludGV ydmFsIjoid2VlayIsInRpbWVVbml0IjpudWxsLCJzZXRTcGFuI jp7Im11bHRpcGxpZXIiOjUsImJhc2UiOiJ5ZWFyIiwicGVyaW9 kaWNpdHkiOnsicGVyaW9kIjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsif X0sImlkIjoiQU5aLkFYIiwicGFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJjb2xvciI 6IiNhZDZlZmYiLCJ3aWR0aCI6MiwiaXNDb21wYXJpc29uIjp0c nVlLCJzaGFyZVlBeGlzIjp0cnVlLCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGF ydCIsInN5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1ib2wiOiJBTlouQVgif SwicGFuZWwiOiJjaGFydCIsImZpbGxHYXBzIjpmYWxzZSwiYWN 0aW9uIjoiYWRkLXNlcmllcyIsInN5bWJvbCI6IkFOWi5BWCIsI mdhcERpc3BsYXlTdHlsZSI6InRyYW5zcGFyZW50IiwibmFtZSI 6IkFOWi5BWCIsIm92ZXJDaGFydCI6dHJ1ZSwidXNlQ2hhcnRMZ WdlbmQiOnRydWUsImhlaWdodFBlcmNlbnRhZ2UiOjAuNywib3B hY2l0eSI6MSwiaGlnaGxpZ2h0YWJsZSI6dHJ1ZSwidHlwZSI6I mxpbmUiLCJzdHlsZSI6InN0eF9saW5lX2NoYXJ0IiwiaGlnaGx pZ2h0IjpmYWxzZX19LHsic3ltYm9sIjoiTkFCLkFYIiwic3ltY m9sT2JqZWN0Ijp7InN5bWJvbCI6Ik5BQi5BWCJ9LCJwZXJpb2R pY2l0eSI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJ3ZWVrIiwidGltZVVuaXQiO m51bGwsInNldFNwYW4iOnsibXVsdGlwbGllciI6NSwiYmFzZSI 6InllYXIiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6eyJwZXJpb2QiOjEsImlud GVydmFsIjoid2VlayJ9fSwiaWQiOiJOQUIuQVgiLCJwYXJhbWV 0ZXJzIjp7ImNvbG9yIjoiI2ZmODBjNSIsIndpZHRoIjoyLCJpc 0NvbXBhcmlzb24iOnRydWUsInNoYXJlWUF4aXMiOnRydWUsImN oYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0Iiwic3ltYm9sT2JqZWN0Ijp7InN5b WJvbCI6Ik5BQi5BWCJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwiZmlsbEd hcHMiOmZhbHNlLCJhY3Rpb24iOiJhZGQtc2VyaWVzIiwic3ltY m9sIjoiTkFCLkFYIiwiZ2FwRGlzcGxheVN0eWxlIjoidHJhbnN wYXJlbnQiLCJuYW1lIjoiTkFCLkFYIiwib3ZlckNoYXJ0Ijp0c nVlLCJ1c2VDaGFydExlZ2VuZCI6dHJ1ZSwiaGVpZ2h0UGVyY2V udGFnZSI6MC43LCJvcGFjaXR5IjoxLCJoaWdobGlnaHRhYmxlI jp0cnVlLCJ0eXBlIjoibGluZSIsInN0eWxlIjoic3R4X2xpbmV fY2hhcnQiLCJoaWdobGlnaHQiOmZhbHNlfX0seyJzeW1ib2wiO iJDQkEuQVgiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiQ0J BLkFYIn0sInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZ WsiLCJ0aW1lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwic2V0U3BhbiI6eyJtdWx0aXB saWVyIjo1LCJiYXNlIjoieWVhciIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5Ijp7I nBlcmlvZCI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJ3ZWVrIn19LCJpZCI6IkN CQS5BWCIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY29sb3IiOiIjZmZiZDc0I iwid2lkdGgiOjIsImlzQ29tcGFyaXNvbiI6dHJ1ZSwic2hhcmV ZQXhpcyI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJzeW1ib 2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiQ0JBLkFYIn0sInBhbmVsIjo iY2hhcnQiLCJmaWxsR2FwcyI6ZmFsc2UsImFjdGlvbiI6ImFkZ C1zZXJpZXMiLCJzeW1ib2wiOiJDQkEuQVgiLCJnYXBEaXNwbGF 5U3R5bGUiOiJ0cmFuc3BhcmVudCIsIm5hbWUiOiJDQkEuQVgiL CJvdmVyQ2hhcnQiOnRydWUsInVzZUNoYXJ0TGVnZW5kIjp0cnV lLCJoZWlnaHRQZXJjZW50YWdlIjowLjcsIm9wYWNpdHkiOjEsI mhpZ2hsaWdodGFibGUiOnRydWUsInR5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwic3R 5bGUiOiJzdHhfbGluZV9jaGFydCIsImhpZ2hsaWdodCI6ZmFsc 2V9fV0sImV2ZW50TWFwIjp7ImNvcnBvcmF0ZSI6eyJkaXZzIjp 0cnVlLCJzcGxpdHMiOnRydWV9LCJzaWdEZXYiOnt9fSwiY3Vzd G9tUmFuZ2UiOm51bGwsInNldFNwYW4iOnsibXVsdGlwbGllciI 6NSwiYmFzZSI6InllYXIiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6eyJwZXJpb 2QiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoid2VlayJ9fX0-

Kudos to "Balance" who appears to have precisely call the bottom - bravo Sir/Madam! Unfortunately being not such a savvy person am still somewhat underwater but onwards and upwards!

[RTM]

Had a chat with one of my banking contacts yesterday regarding interest rates outlook and as an aside, his view on HGH.

They (the bank which btw is an international bank, not one of the locals) believe that the RBNZ has well .

Thanks for taking the time to share that info Balance. And earlier post re getting back into HGH.
Appreciated.

[winner69]

What is your contacts track record on prior interest outlooks?

Why does he/she work for a wage?

Why have the RBNZ missed the points you raise when all are public knowledge?

Bit grumpy are we today mate

There’s an old saying this .’when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right’. Balance's contact probably right.

[SailorRob]

Bit grumpy are we today mate

There’s an old saying this .’when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right’. Balance's contact probably right.

The saying you're thinking of sport is;

Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.

If balances contact reported to him from the 100 foot yacht in the med then I'll take it seriously.

But then again, would I believe that someone with the ability to predict this stuff would freely share it?

[Ggcc]

Had a chat with one of my banking contacts yesterday regarding interest rates outlook and as an aside, his view on HGH.

They (the bank which btw is an international bank, not one of the locals) believe that the RBNZ has well and truly misread the weak state of the NZ economy and is well behind the curve. They are observing many very weak points already apparent in the economy (financial stress, retail spending, recession despite record net migration, weak property prices, declining tax take, increased unemployment despite record migration to Australia and big increases in insolvencies and receiverships) and are concerned that the RB will overdo using high interest rates to crunch inflation.

Especially when inflation is already heading lower (annualized March quarter was 2.4%) and will continue to go lower due to the above weak points. Domestic inflation being targeted by the RB is unlikely to come down in a big hurry given it's ever increasing local council rates, government charges and household servicing costs like insurance driving costs increases.

Net net, they believe the RB is going to have to cut rates sooner than later and cut sharply. He likened the RB to a drunken driver in charge of the monetary policy car driving along a windy road!

AS for HGH, his view (not the bank) is that buying Challenger Bank makes a lot of sense for one strong and compelling reason - access to cheaper funds courtesy of the Australian FCS deposit guarantee scheme. Australians do place their funds up to $250,000 with different banks to take advantage of the guarantee, say $250k with 4 banks than $1m with 1 bank. He thinks that's something which has been missed by many in the market.

What your friend is seeing is what I am seeing and hearing from business owners. Hours cut at Harvey Norman for staff, Hotel workers asked to take holiday pay, as there are no guests, takeaways and restaurants begging for customers. This is why I still see albeit (through my rose tinted glasses), that interest rates need to come down by the end of this year.
It will be a sad 2025 for some if the tap is not turned on slowly.

[Rawz]

What your friend is seeing is what I am seeing and hearing from business owners. Hours cut at Harvey Norman for staff, Hotel workers asked to take holiday pay, as there are no guests, takeaways and restaurants begging for customers. This is why I still see albeit (through my rose tinted glasses), that interest rates need to come down by the end of this year.
It will be a sad 2025 for some if the tap is not turned on slowly.

I agree. Very tough out there. I believe Balance's mate over Orr lol

[LaserEyeKiwi]

There are plenty of people that have been saying for months that much of the non-tradable local inflation is being driven by essential services (council rates, insurance, utility bills) unmoved by interest rate increases, or worse are actually going up because of interest rate increases.

But if RBNZ cant impact those factors to reduce inflation, they are going to have to go even harder on the rest of the economy that they can impact.

I myself think there is another option (let inflation ride at 3-4% for a year or two), but unfortunately is not an option for them while they are directed to keep inflation below 3%.

Wouldn’t be surprised if current government is considering changing that target band - because at the current RBNZ track the economic pain might continue into the 2026 election cycle.

[SailorRob]

One persons debt is another persons asset.

For every punter feeling the pain of rates another is feeling the glee.

The issue is new credit creation.

[Balance]

Kudos to "Balance" who appears to have precisely call the bottom - bravo Sir/Madam! Unfortunately being not such a savvy person am still somewhat underwater but onwards and upwards!


Thanks for taking the time to share that info Balance. And earlier post re getting back into HGH.
Appreciated.

Flippers (those who took part in the CR and underwrite for a quick gain) are still there so am expecting sp of HGH to do more work around the $1.01 +/- level before the strong base is built to move the sp higher.

[Rawz]

One persons debt is another persons asset.

For every punter feeling the pain of rates another is feeling the glee.

The issue is new credit creation.

Most depositors are typically retired and dont spend much. Those with debt are typically the main drivers of consumption. 25-55 age bracket.

Agree, credit creation is the ultimate driver of growth

[jonu]

Most depositors are typically retired and dont spend much. Those with debt are typically the main drivers of consumption. 25-55 age bracket.

Agree, credit creation is the ultimate driver of growth

Without a corresponding growth in productivity it will be inflationary. More credit chasing the same number of goods and services. That's not real growth, but that has been NZ's problem for many years.

[SailorRob]

Without a corresponding growth in productivity it will be inflationary. More credit chasing the same number of goods and services. That's not real growth, but that has been NZ's problem for many years.

100% correct.

[mike2020]

There are plenty of people that have been saying for months that much of the non-tradable local inflation is being driven by essential services (council rates, insurance, utility bills) unmoved by interest rate increases, or worse are actually going up because of interest rate increases.

But if RBNZ cant impact those factors to reduce inflation, they are going to have to go even harder on the rest of the economy that they can impact.

I myself think there is another option (let inflation ride at 3-4% for a year or two), but unfortunately is not an option for them while they are directed to keep inflation below 3%.

Wouldn’t be surprised if current government is considering changing that target band - because at the current RBNZ track the economic pain might continue into the 2026 election cycle.

I think your onto something. Listening to the news in the car back to back items on increased rates and the fixed costs like insurance followed by a note about inflation and interest rate news. I mean do the math. They said some insurance average up 40%. What happens next? I can tell you. More people stop buying insurance. Then what?

The rhetoric on tv news is along the lines of this government hates the poor. I hope like hell they have a rabbit to pull out of the hat well before the next election or we are going to be cooked again by the freaking idiots who got us in this mess.

[X-men]

NZ is stuffed.... thanks to the previous labour government

[percy]

NZ is stuffed.... thanks to the previous labour government

Think you are right.
Was at Pak'nSave today.Going by the over flowing trollies at the check outs,and the large number filling up their vehicles at Pak'nSave's petrol pumps,it looks as though people think NZ is running out of food and petrol.The huge number of vehicles on the road confirmed most people were out for one last drive.
"The end is nigh".................................................. ........lol.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

NZ is stuffed.... thanks to the previous labour government

To be fair - almost every country in the developed world is going through the same upheavals caused by the same global issues of the last few years, regardless of what flavor of government they had. Thankfully NZ is in a much better state in terms of government debt.

Despite its polarization, the US is actually faring the best in terms of economic growth, mostly due to its unique mortgage market where 90%+ of homeowners are locked in at record low interest rates on 30 year fixed terms. So consumers there are still spending like crazy. Meanwhile their house building sector is still chugging along fine, as their house builders simply “buy down” the interest rates to new house buyers to attractive low rates (and simply building that cost into the margins on the purchase price).

If heartland really wanted to shake up things they should start offering 20-30 year fixed term mortgages. I dont think they will do that anytime soon while they absorb Challenger, but maybe an initiative for the future.

[Balance]

If heartland really wanted to shake up things they should start offering 20-30 year fixed term mortgages. I dont think they will do that anytime soon while they absorb Challenger, but maybe an initiative for the future.

No banks in Australasia can offer fixed rate mortgages in NZ for more than 5 years for 2 reasons :

1. Lack of depth and liquidity in the wholesale fixed interest rate market.

2. No hedging mechanism using government risk free bond rates as government bonds are mostly up to 5 years duration.

So don't expect it anytime soon.

https://news.anz.com/new-zealand/posts/2023/07/30-year-fixed-rate-mortgages-explained

[Balance]

One persons debt is another persons asset.

For every punter feeling the pain of rates another is feeling the glee.

The issue is new credit creation.

Not true at all in the case of NZ as NZ is a huge net borrower of overseas debt - External debt was US$223.6 billion* in Dec 2023.

Net foreign debt (after taking out foreign assets owned by NZ) was $191.9 billion.

What this means is that a 1% increase in interest rates = increase in $1.919 billion leaving NZ to offshore lenders.






*https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/new-zealand/external-debt

[SailorRob]

Not true at all in the case of NZ as NZ is a huge net borrower of overseas debt - External debt was US$223.6 billion* in Dec 2023.

Net foreign debt (after taking out foreign assets owned by NZ) was $191.9 billion.

What this means is that a 1% increase in interest rates = increase in $1.919 billion leaving NZ to offshore lenders.






*https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/new-zealand/external-debt


Did I say that one KIWIS debt is another KIWIS asset?

No I did not.

And a 1% increase in rates dose NOT mean that the lenders get that 1%...

[Balance]

Did I say that one KIWIS debt is another KIWIS asset?

No I did not.

And a 1% increase in rates dose NOT mean that the lenders get that 1%...

Of course you did - in the context of 'the issue is new credit creation.'

[Sideshow Bob]

New directors

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431674

Heartland Group Holdings Limited (Heartland) (NZX/ASX: HGH) is pleased to announce that it intends to appoint Robert (Rob) Bell and Simon Beckett as independent, non-executive directors(subject to Reserve Bank of New Zealand non-objection), with effect from 27 June 2024.

[ronaldson]

Market already today with buyers at $1.05. The era of cheap is over and the train has left the station. Just looking now as to where it will settle pending further updates/developments.

This from 22 May. Seems I caught the wrong train. O well, travelling is sometimes better than arriving at a destination.

[SailorRob]

Don't worry, remember Balance called the bottom perfectly.

[Balance]

Don't worry, remember Balance called the bottom perfectly.

But of course!

Read post #17523 (23 May) :


Flippers (those who took part in the CR and underwrite for a quick gain) are still there so am expecting sp of HGH to do more work around the $1.01 +/- level before the strong base is built to move the sp higher.

Try harder to keep up SR.

[Baa_Baa]

Monthly chart, with only a few days left to go, is interesting showing an indecision Doji Star (very tight high/low spread) centred at $1.01. It could go either way and easily interpreted as a bottom but the probably is greater that it is not, more than it is. It's what happens from here that matters. More on this probability here https://thepatternsite.com/DojiStarBull.html

[Baa_Baa]

Monthly chart, with only a few days left to go, is interesting showing an indecision Doji Star (very tight high/low spread) centred at $1.01. It could go either way and easily interpreted as a bottom but the probably is greater that it is not, more than it is. It's what happens from here that matters. More on this probability here https://thepatternsite.com/DojiStarBull.html

It could also be a Morning Star doji which has a much greater probability of upside movement in price, but as I said, it's what happens from here that matters. https://thepatternsite.com/MorningDojiStar.html

[Baa_Baa]

It could also be a Morning Star doji which has a much greater probability of upside movement in price, but as I said, it's what happens from here that matters. https://thepatternsite.com/MorningDojiStar.html

Here's the monthly chart https://invst.ly/14-i0c

[Rawz]

So BaaBaa what you’re telling us is the price will either go up or down? :)

[Baa_Baa]

So BaaBaa what you’re telling us is the price will either go up or down? :)

Thanks for your encouragement, depending on how you interpret the monthly price candle, it's either more likely to go down, or less likely to go up. Lol. So what's your interpretation of the candle? Not that it matters, like I said, it's what happens next that counts.

Trading is fun, it's in the now, we have access to all sorts of insights, it's just how and when we interpret them ... and what we do about it. Or not.

[Rawz]

Thanks for your encouragement, depending on how you interpret the monthly price candle, it's either more likely to go down, or less likely to go up. Lol. So what's your interpretation of the candle? Not that it matters, like I said, it's what happens next that counts.

Trading is fun, it's in the now, we have access to all sorts of insights, it's just how and when we interpret them ... and what we do about it. Or not.
I only know the very basics of TA. Enough to know this is in a terrible downtrend and the number one rule is to never buy in a downtrend. But I also know HGH is cheap as chips so buying now will be okay in the long run.

[bull....]

Flippers (those who took part in the CR and underwrite for a quick gain) are still there so am expecting sp of HGH to do more work around the $1.01 +/- level before the strong base is built to move the sp higher.

yep reason i posted i was only in short term , i sold out just above 1.04 . will watch now

[ronaldson]

Good post (#17479) Balance. The chart certainly seems to indicate that over the past month or two HGH has been oversold.

I looked at the on-market price action today and thought that after this week, maybe even quicker, we may not see sub $1 again unless there is adverse news.

This post from 20 May. Another failed prediction. Is anyone making any money on the NZX currently? Even the sharetrader competition participants are mostly underwater, often significantly so.

Of course your picks may not match your portfolio. But there doesn't seem to be any expectation by Mr Market that Nicola will help out tomorrow either. And inflation is now UP in Australia again which, given tax cuts are said to be offered, may become a trend here too? Then where to for share prices?

[nztx]

This post from 20 May. Another failed prediction. Is anyone making any money on the NZX currently? Even the sharetrader competition participants are mostly underwater, often significantly so.

Of course your picks may not match your portfolio. But there doesn't seem to be any expectation by Mr Market that Nicola will help out tomorrow either. And inflation is now UP in Australia again which, given tax cuts are said to be offered, may become a trend here too? Then where to for share prices?



IMO Aussie & foreign markets might be seeing more joy.

The local sentiment even for what ordinarily might look reasonable makes one think twice

The growing sea of red locally, a skeleton NZX board littered with so many dead, dying & potentially injured outfits (cushioned by all the fancy NZX funds to help divert attention away) all reeling in the hard economic conditions makes other markets look a breath of fresh air :)

How many dividend stocks have not declared or reduced ? How many more are likely to stall Div's ?

How many are reliant on dividend income ?

How much spending will go to or out of NZX stocks in a struggling post & current COL hit goldfish bowl, how much will be diverted to mortgages & loans, or servicing them at higher rates. How many will be ultra cautious and stay away, and wait & see ? How many will put off buying new assets, cars. appliances ?

Is the dip over or just starting towards something like we saw with onslaught of Covid in March/April 2020 ?

[SailorRob]

Watch then for the PE and valuation multiple expansion which is of course the biggest driver of any share price.

Here is a great article explaining why this from Balance is totally wrong and has very little effect at all. Strongly suggest reading it, it's not long.

https://www.lindselltrain.com/application/files/2117/1472/4230/A_Very_Long_Hill_-_April_2024.pdf

[Bikeguy]

Here is a great article explaining why this from Balance is totally wrong and has very little effect at all. Strongly suggest reading it, it's not long.

https://www.lindselltrain.com/application/files/2117/1472/4230/A_Very_Long_Hill_-_April_2024.pdf

The article makes some fair points.
I have come into investing in shares pretty late in life, in the Covid wave of investors, and the biggest lesson I have started to learn is patience…several stocks have taught me some hard lessons, lol…A2 being one of them…
I would have been better off in the bank at 6.1% but the lessons I have learned are valuable too..

[SailorRob]

The article makes some fair points.
I have come into investing in shares pretty late in life, in the Covid wave of investors, and the biggest lesson I have started to learn is patience…several stocks have taught me some hard lessons, lol…A2 being one of them…
I would have been better off in the bank at 6.1% but the lessons I have learned are valuable too..


Good stuff Bikeguy, if you understand the points in the article you are doing well as a relative newbie. Of course changes in PE drive everything short term but very difficult if not impossible to predict and time.

Yes patience is everything in this game, focus on the business not the share price.

Anything people are talking about at the BBQ, stay away.

Perhaps you would have been better off in the bank even if rates were Negative 10%?

[Valuegrowth]

52-Week range 0.96-1.84

I thought of buying it around 1.02. There is something that we don't know. It has dropped all the way from 1.84 to below $0.99. What would be the main reason. I have had terrible experience in investing in the financial sector. I can still remember all financial stocks dropped like hot potatoes before they went to receiverships. However, HGH is not like other banks and finance companies. Currently, it has lost its momentum. Investors are waiting for something to cheer.