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View Full Version : Is there a double dip on the horizon ??



janner
18-06-2011, 09:09 PM
All pointers seem to say so !..

elZorro
19-06-2011, 08:39 AM
Hi Janner, I assume you have seen this from Incredible Charts: (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2011-06-18-markets.php)and it certainly looks that way. No quick reply to your thread by the experts on ST, that would be a bad sign too. Learners like me are all wondering what will happen next week. These are the times when many so-called "investments" are revealed in truth as bets that are taken off the table. Those of us who use FA to select and hold shares, start looking more at risk than usual.

Add to this, the possibility of insiders, board members and large shareholders affecting many shareprices, and you have to be careful with your purchases. The silver lining is that any share price drop will stop sometime, and picking that point in late 2008 has been lucrative for many.

digger
19-06-2011, 09:09 AM
The answer to the thread as to whether there is a double dip or not is IMHO is clearly NO.
When the downturn started 2008 i had an on going arguement with my accountant and banker about the recession. Both thought it would be V shaped and be over soon.My feeling do to all cheap oil now gone is that the only letter in the althebet that will describe in economy is the letter L. The thread title here assumes that the letter is W with the last up turn in the coming future. That is just hope and it is not our future.
The chinese have a charactor that better describes the economy since 2008 and it is like an L with the bottom of the L sloping gradually down.So the answer to this thread title is NO. No such luck.

POSSUM THE CAT
19-06-2011, 11:43 AM
Digger Agreed the only way to rectify is another Bretton Woods to take a lot of the speculation & manipulation away from Markets

Billy Boy
19-06-2011, 02:56 PM
:eek2: (http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/53934/double-shot-interview-hifxs-dan-bell-reviews-weeks-currencies-moves-including-greek-de)
http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/53934/double-shot-interview-hifxs-dan-bell-reviews-weeks-currencies-moves-including-greek-de
BB

winner69
19-06-2011, 05:55 PM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jun/19/greece-financial-crisis-will-hutton

Worth a read as some of the current malaise is explained.

Notice once again how private capital is preserved (to 1% of world's rich) while the public (the 0ther 99%) get to shoulder the burden. Methinks that a total overthrow of the financial system via non-violent revolutions would be a great thing ... i.e. anyone with net worth of 250 million US gets to donate the remainder to the public purse to cancel govt debts ... ;) ... Wonder what that'd do to the US debt mountain? ... (And, yes, I already know the answer :) )

edited:

Remember back in the good old days when a bank that risked everything and failed meant that equity holders lost everything (while depositors were generally covered by govt guarantees) and it became a lesson to all bankers to be conservative and lend wisely? Seems those days are gone!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/jun/17/greece-debt-crisis-bank-exposed

A look through the table of banks and their exposure suggest that the most non-greek banks would survive (albeit shareholders would likely be tossing out the boards and senior management due to some pretty steep capital losses!) and the ones that failed would become a great reminder to other banks, and shareholder of those banks, that failure is just around the corner to any bank that does not lend wisely and spread risk appropriately.

Inevitable consequences of the fractional banking system eh Belg

The situation who is holding the credit default swaps complicated the matters as well

Foe once I agree witht he Germans - let the banks take a haircut ... they were the stupid ones

The citizens of Greek may have benefited but they should not have to suffer to pay it all back .... greedy banks didn't lend to credit worthy people (nation) in the first place did they

janner
19-06-2011, 08:40 PM
It is Roubini that I have been watching.. He was correct the last time..

Also Billy T from Sciforums.. I know that he is not a finance man but he has been predicting 2014 for a major crash for quite some time ..

JBmurc
19-06-2011, 08:52 PM
It is Roubini that I have been watching.. He was correct the last time..

Also Billy T from Sciforums.. I know that he is not a finance man but he has been predicting 2014 for a major crash for quite some time ..

Yes many got it right- Marc faber,jim rogers,peter schiff also have got much right over the last few decades

lakedaemonian
19-06-2011, 09:13 PM
Yes many got it right- Marc faber,jim rogers,peter schiff also have got much right over the last few decades

You should add Eric Janszen to the list.

In fact it would be hard to find anyone with a better verified record over the last 12 years.

He has been close to flawless on big picture stuff.

And his timing has been scary, scary accurate.

janner
19-06-2011, 09:29 PM
Well be scared .. Janszen is also predicting another one :-)

JBmurc
19-06-2011, 09:43 PM
Well be scared .. Janszen is also predicting another one :-)

anyone got a recent clip on the guys views

elZorro
20-06-2011, 06:34 AM
anyone got a recent clip on the guys views

Hi JB. I found this post from iTulip, (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php/18138-Crisis-2011-%C2%96-Part-I-The-Other-Shoe-Eric-Janszen?p=186413) dated early 2011. For more info, looks like a subscription is needed.

janner
20-06-2011, 07:59 PM
Janszen is picking the next oil spike to be the tipping point.

elZorro
21-06-2011, 07:17 PM
This article predates your thread, Janner (http://investmentwatchblog.com/warning-the-10-signs-that-the-double-dip-recession-has-begun/). But I thought it had some useful background.

Possum the Cat mentioned Bretton Woods. I wasn't sure who he was..



The Bretton Woods system of monetary (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money) management established the rules for commercial (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commerce) and financial (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finance) relations among the world's major industrial states (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Developed_country) in the mid 20th century. The Bretton Woods system was the first example of a fully negotiated monetary order intended to govern monetary relations among independent nation-states.
Preparing to rebuild the international economic system as World War II (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was still raging, 730 delegates from all 44 Allied nations (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allies_of_World_War_II) gathered at the Mount Washington Hotel (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Washington_Hotel) in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods,_New_Hampshire), United States (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States), for the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Monetary_and_Financial_Conference). The delegates deliberated upon and signed the Bretton Woods Agreements during the first three weeks of July 1944.
Setting up a system of rules, institutions, and procedures to regulate the international monetary system, the planners at Bretton Woods established the International Monetary Fund (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Monetary_Fund) (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Bank_for_Reconstruction_and_Developm ent) (IBRD), which today is part of the World Bank Group (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_Group). These organizations became operational in 1945 after a sufficient number of countries had ratified the agreement.
The chief features of the Bretton Woods system were an obligation for each country to adopt a monetary policy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_policy) that maintained the exchange rate (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange_rate) by tying its currency (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency) to the U.S. dollar and the ability of the IMF to bridge temporary imbalances of payments (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balance_of_payments).
On August 15, 1971, the United States unilaterally terminated convertibility (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convertibility) of the dollar (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_dollar) to gold. As a result, "[t]he Bretton Woods system officially ended and the dollar became fully 'fiat currency (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_currency),' backed by nothing but the promise of the federal government."[1] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system#cite_note-0) This action, referred to as the Nixon shock (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shock), created the situation in which the United States dollar became the sole backing of currencies and a reserve currency (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency) for the member states.

janner
21-06-2011, 08:54 PM
It does not predate me elZorro :-))

Are you saying that all of those 44 countries can go broke and the US will back them up ??

janner
21-06-2011, 08:55 PM
Should really have said .

Any or all .

elZorro
21-06-2011, 09:05 PM
It does not predate me elZorro :-))

Are you saying that all of those 44 countries can go broke and the US will back them up ??

The predating part meant that the first article was 10th June, so a bit old.
I didn't do economics, so Bretton Woods is a mystery to me. But Possum could be right, it's about time some new international action on finances was carried out, or it could all spiral out of control. There's a lot more there on it in Wikipedia.

elZorro
23-06-2011, 12:23 PM
Oil down. Many commodities down but still with good price to encourage investments in more supply. Greece looks like getting another big bailout. Double dip? Bit worried, like most of you, but just don't see it.

I have a lot of time for your posts Belgarion, they always make sense. Despite this, I have done a favour for everyone holding or buying OGC shares, as I sold some over the last 2-3 days. As per usual, that share at least, rebounded after I'd sold them. My timing is always backwards :eek2: