Maverick Drilling and Exploration (MAD)

[Huang Chung]

Just spent 15min typing something here...hit one wrong key and lost the lot :mad ;:.

So, I'll be brief....

My broker pointed me in the direction of Maverick Drilling and Exploration this morning, after they released a reserve upgrade. 2P now 52.4m bbl oil (not boe), and 1P 12.4m bbl. That's a 59% increase in 1P and a 104% increase in 2P compared to when they floated around a year ago at 20c.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MAD&E=ASX&N=232968


Operations are at the Blue Ridge Dome, just outside Houston, Texas. Since listing, they've also acquired significant additional acreage at both the Blue Ridge Dome and the Boling Dome.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MAD&E=ASX&N=231200


Production rate is also increasing....May was 640 bopd ave.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MAD&E=ASX&N=232619


Mkt cap is around $80m, with cash of around $10m.

With a current share price of just 23c, valuation of 2P reserves is just $1.60 or thereabouts.

Seems pretty cheap to me.

[drillfix]

Just spent 15min typing something here...hit one wrong key and lost the lot :mad ;:.


With a current share price of just 23c, valuation of 2P reserves is just $1.60 or thereabouts.

Seems pretty cheap to me.


LOL HC,

Dont ya just hate that. Too many times I too have ended up doing a monster post only to accidentally click something else and ZIP, there it goes, off to binary heaven which equals Half hour down the tube.

Seems interesting this, so I would guess this is a Oil/Gas stock correct?

That broker of yours seems to be keeping you busy, can you advise what his Hit rate (success rate) to his calls that he gives you? Do they be pretty much spot on with targets or is it hit and miss with markets pending?

[Huang Chung]

Hey Drilly.

Yep, MAD is oil, but not gas from what I can tell....something I very much like.

I was trying to get some bearings on what that sort of valuation per bbl is like ($1.60 a bbl). I had a quick look at AWE, who have an extra 20m or so bbls of 2P, but a mkt cap 8 times the size!

[trackers]

Wow HC, did a quick some in my head and came out at $1.60 a bbl too - Thats ridiculous... I too like Oil over gas (ideally)...

It would be good to see that production continue to increase, it'd take >80,000 days to pump what they've got (2P) at current rates :D

At around $2mil revenue per month and growing, you'd expect them to be self-funding from now on?

[Corporate]

Does anyone know how many shares are on issue?

[shasta]

Does anyone know how many shares are on issue?

As per Trading Room 237,454,286 on issue

[Huang Chung]

According to the latest Appendix 3B, there are 237 454 286 quoted shares, and136 112 857 unquoted shares. At 23c, that's a market cap of 85.92m.

[Corporate]

thanks guys, looks interesting

[Entrep]

From an entry point of view - looks like there was plenty of selling into the ann yesterday?

[Romulus]

Previous Reserves BBL Gross nom revenue USD per BBL Sale price per P1/P2
Reserves 1p 7,800,000 $702,000,000 $90.00 $16.00 $124,800,000
Reserves 2p 25,600,000 $2,304,000,000 $90.00 $10.00 $256,000,000
Updated 29 June 11 (significant upgrade) Linc paid average of $10 for 2p reserves in USA
Reserves 1p 12,400,000 $1,116,000,000 $90.00 $16.00 $198,400,000
Reserves 2p 52,400,000 $4,716,000,000 $90.00 $10.00 $524,000,000
AMU 1p reserves for sold Kansas P1 reserves @ 16.50 to EEG
the numbers look very compelling- DYOR

[gazprom1]

Thanks for the heads up HC. I am big oil fan so will DMOR as it looks like it could suit my portfolio. Key for me in these markets is to ensure that a company does not need to come to the market for capital and can self fund development.

Gazprom

[Corporate]

I wouldn't get to wound up on the reserve figures yet. This will only re-rate if they can continue to increase production..

[Huang Chung]

Monthly production seems to be trending in the right direction, so hopefully it's just a matter of time.

Topped up on the snap at 23.5c to close out the financial year.

[drillfix]

Monthly production seems to be trending in the right direction, so hopefully it's just a matter of time.

Topped up on the snap at 23.5c to close out the financial year.

Was that you HC, sheebers, I had a half order filled at 23c today, and left my order all day believing that it would get filled and thought about upping it also at the end of day. But Interactive Brokers seem to charge another brokerage for any movement of orders price so I just left it.

Ahh well tomorrow is another day, but at least a small parcel to can give me a little exposure.

[trackers]

I wouldn't get to wound up on the reserve figures yet. This will only re-rate if they can continue to increase production..

Assuming they couldn't (and given they've got 80,000 days worth of oil at current production), couldn't they drop down a well close by and suck at the same reservoir? I realise that would be a costly option in the shortterm

[Huang Chung]

Trackers...these guys own, operate, repair and manufacture some of the rigs they use. Take a look at their drilling reports...putting lots of wells into production, but each one doesn't produce all that much, so its a gradual process of increasing production over time.

Corporate video gives you some idea of their type of operation:

http://www.maverickdrilling.com/blueridge.html

[trackers]

Ahh, cheers for that HC will have to have a bit more of a dig and see how quickly they can drill and at what costs.. Sounds like IOG but with way higher reserves...

[drillfix]

Trackers...these guys own, operate, repair and manufacture some of the rigs they use.

http://www.maverickdrilling.com/blueridge.html



I like that HC, businesses like that limit their excuses for breakdown, repair, maintenance. Plus availability is always on time and on place where it should be on time, all the time. (or most of the time). Plus it would be a excellent networking industry access to a variety of assets in exchange for services rendered etc. Its all good, but just hope they bring home the Oil :)

[Corporate]

I'm liking what I see...400 drill sites on blue ridge dome

[Huang Chung]

I'm liking what I see...400 drill sites on blue ridge dome

Feb Production 371 BOPD
Mar Production 430 BOPD
Apr Production 516 BOPD
May Production 640 BOPD

"Oil Pricing: Maverick's May 2011 Blue Ridge Dome oil sales averaged USD 93.33 per barrel net of transportation costs."

"The Directors believe that production is trending upward nicely and they will continue to provide monthly production updates."

[Corporate]

Feb Production 371 BOPD
Mar Production 430 BOPD
Apr Production 516 BOPD
May Production 640 BOPD

"Oil Pricing: Maverick's May 2011 Blue Ridge Dome oil sales averaged USD 93.33 per barrel net of transportation costs."

"The Directors believe that production is trending upward nicely and they will continue to provide monthly production updates."

Production increasing and an increasing rate... :-)

[boysy]

Well the 750 barrels a day seems the magic number looks as though this should be reached for the month of June production

[bermuda]

Well the 750 barrels a day seems the magic number looks as though this should be reached for the month of June production

I picked up 500k a while ago expecting simple sailing but the recent CR and market blues dealt me choppy waters. In the green now and the sail is wet for an increasingly profitable journey. Very stable situation for MAD with huge reserves to draw on. Hopefully we can get production over 1000 bbls per day before too long. I holding long term.

It should outperform and has a valuation of nearly $1 according to the experts.

[ELYOB]

Have to keep an eye on the cash burn over coming months . Where will this be in 12 months ?

[gazprom1]

Have to keep an eye on the cash burn over coming months . Where will this be in 12 months ?

Hi ELYOB,

I think in their quarterley they talked about spending around $6 million for the forthcoming quarter (June-Aug). IF thye average around 700bopd for the quarter - 63000boe@ $100 = $6.3 million. So , if they continue to trend upwards in production then should become self financing.

Gazprom

[Huang Chung]

Seem to be some determined sellers in MAD. Actually finished down on a half decent day.

[boysy]

Looks to be too good to be true if they can keep on adding wells at an increasing rate. Took a small punt today at 23.5 if they continue to add close to 20% production per month they should be at 1000 bopd in no time at all. They just have to keep drilling if they have drilled 22 out of 400 possible sites with a 90%+ success rate so far looks the goods.

[drillfix]

Market Sensitive Ann issued after market today (wed) at 4:30pm just come in.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110706/pdf/01195630.pdf

Detailed Drilling Activity for June 2011

Wow, they sure do have quite a few 100% owned wells, dont they what :)

Will leave all you oil guys to talk out the reset of the fundamentals~!

Here is the

680 BOPD

2
12 (90%)
10
1 well currently being recompleted

12
36
67
14
24

10
100
48
19
85


40
60
18
20
68

17
18

2 wells completion underway (1 well 90%)
1 well awaiting completion rig.10+12++

[Corporate]

Jez I've got a very small amount of MAD as it is one of those "it seems to good to be true" should just back myself

[drillfix]

I know what you mean Corp.

Have been waiting to get yet another small parcel but would rather pay a premium to be on the right side of the trade, but it appears there are some off screen buyers just lurking and waiting for the sellers to get weak it seems.

Lets see what tomorrow brings.

[Huang Chung]

Nice to see yet another increase in monthly production, allbeit at a smaller increment this time around.

Still some determined selling crimping the shareprice.

[drillfix]

Nice to see yet another increase in monthly production, allbeit at a smaller increment this time around.

Still some determined selling crimping the shareprice.

There sure does HC, although why is it they never wish to go below 23c? It seems they are trying to avoid any downfall. Or so it seems.

Here is your list with June tally added :)

Feb Production 371 BOPD
Mar Production 430 BOPD
Apr Production 516 BOPD
May Production 640 BOPD
June Production 680 BOPD


Also with 2 wells in completion underway status and 1 well awaiting completion rig, and 1 well currently being recompleted, next month should see the 700 mark easily well and truly broken. I would even be bold to say 800 BOPD

[Corporate]

There sure does HC, although why is it they never wish to go below 23c? It seems they are trying to avoid any downfall. Or so it seems.

Here is your list with June tally added :)

Feb Production 371 BOPD
Mar Production 430 BOPD
Apr Production 516 BOPD
May Production 640 BOPD
June Production 680 BOPD


Also with 2 wells in completion underway status and 1 well awaiting completion rig, and 1 well currently being recompleted, next month should see the 700 mark easily well and truly broken. I would even be bold to say 800 BOPD

I don't think you can compare the production report (may) to the June drilling reporting. I noticed that the may production report did not marry up with the production in the may drilling report...

I think the drilling reports have indicated lower production than the production reports as they are probably the rate at the end of the month which is perhaps higher on average during the month. I can't say for sure and haven't looked into it in any detail.

[ELYOB]

Do we have to a/c for decline in flow rates .... Some people had a site visit awhile ago , and are saying to beware of cash burn going forward. Deals have been made and the company has yet to explain all . I take that refers to the new ground . I am eager to see the quarterly for more info .

[drillfix]

I don't think you can compare the production report (may) to the June drilling reporting.

Sorry Corp, I thought they were both one in the same.

Sorry my Bad :P

[boysy]

seems to be heading in the right direction as long as they keep on incrementally adding production will be good once they reach the level where they can fund exploration off income alone.

[boysy]

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June Total


#201 10 10 6 4 4 4 2 2 1260
#204 55 25 20 15 15 2 - - 3960
#165 55 80 30 30 30 30 25 12 8760
#66 30 40 25 25 20 18 18 10 5580
#108 - - 15 19 18 18 12 2460
#102 25 60 50 - 80 54 36 9150
#127 - 27 40 60 90 67 67 10530
#207 - - - - 65 27 14 3180
#103 60 60 60 31 25 9 24 8070
#202 10 - - - - - 10 600
#101 - 25 - - - - 100 3750
#206 - - 40 - 42 42 48 5160
#72 - - 5 2 19 780
#228 - - 5 115 85 85 8700
#229 - - - 52 40 2760
#225 - - 80 83 60 6690
#231 - - - 8 18 780
#223 - 34 34 20 2640
#70 40 - 75 68 5490
#43 - - 20 17 1110
#73 - - - 0
#177 - - 0
#114 18 540
#511 - 0


Total 150 250 253 279 224 608 621 680
Average 37.5 35.7 31.6 31 24.9 43.4 36.5 34 91950

[Corporate]

June production report out late last night. Not amazing but going in the right directions, and a 7% increase month on month shouldn't be disregarded. I'm still only holding a small parcel.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110718/pdf/41ztw4p5cd0njl.pdf

[Huang Chung]

I'm getting into the Drill Torque IPO so had to let some stock go. MAD drew the short straw, as I do think someone is playing games with the share price.

Still very much like the underlying story, and will keep a watching brief on it.

[modandm]

no doubt the underwriter is buying the stock for their 'priority growth fund' to support clients who have invested directly through the ipo. Im sure the story i not all bad and the stock has some fundamental merits however I would avoid this stock when there are plenty of others without the lack of liquidity and possible manipulation concerns.

My 2c

[drillfix]

Looks like the ole MAD house is moving full steam a head.

Whats that main driver today, the quarterly?

[boysy]

Good to see mention of over 700 barrels in the presentation and the word operations are profitable. They bought 2 more work over rigs during the quarter so i would expect the rate of production to keep on increasing should be a good day based on what was in the investor presentation released yesterday

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=MAD

[drillfix]

First time I have saw 26c get taken out, only to see the sellers come back in. If it hits 26.5c we could have a breakout surge, depending on who and how many are watching and following this story.


HC are you completely out of this now mate? I see your MTE's that your broker mentioned are flying.

[drillfix]

Looks like we may have a bit of a breakout on the cards coming up, now that we are up and at past 26c.

Anybody else on this roll?

[Corporate]

I'm in for a few drill (probably not enough).

[crooky]

Been in since it listed , picked up a few more when it hit 18 last lows , good to see it moving in the right direction .

Will be glad if it can break thru previous high of 29 .

[drillfix]

Good stuff there Crooky, and good on ya Corporate.

I have a small position also, but will certainly consider another parcel for hopefully what I think will be an upward break.

Somebody out there is not afraid to take 100K parcels here and there so surely there are some off screen buyers whom will also be anticipating an upward moves which may even accelerate such a speculative move.

[boysy]

Will be interesting if the 2 new workover rigs will help increase production from existing wells. Now they have 4 driling rigs and 5 work over rigs

[Corporate]

good summary here

http://www.smh.com.au/business/one-madcheap-stock-on-our-radar-20110801-1i7yt.html

care of HC

[boysy]

Holding up remarkably well all things considered will be interesting to see what this months drilling report brings.

[gazprom1]

I had a look into their quarterley report (June) and it is slightly worrying that they are still making a loss at 700BOPD and not an insignifcant loss. Net Operating cash flow for the 9 months was negative $6.567 million and for the quarter ended June was negative $761k. Their admin costs are high at $3.451 million for the 9 months. Development costs are also very high which is kind of understandable given the amount of drilling.

However, the wells that are producing from now are on a steep curve down as their initial production rates decrease very quickly and in order to keep on production static or increasing their development costs will remain very high. I just wonder at what point (if ever) will they turn a profit??? 1000BOPD, 2000BOPD?? Their costs seem high as they have 9 of their own rigs.

Gazprom
gazprom

[drillfix]

Hi Gaz,

Not really sure with this bunch no more as I sold out previously and the stock seems to be stuck in a range so god knows about the figures.

Perhaps some of sector specialists can comment yet what you have said also shines clarity on whats happening.


dis: not holding

[Corporate]

Gaz I can't agree with you. The June operating cash flow of negative $761k includes $2,976k of development expenditure. Taking this out shows that they are profitable at 700bopd and are able to invest a significant amount of cash back into drilling more wells and increasing production. Production has increased from 371bopd in February to 700 in July, that's almost 200% annualised.

The administration costs of $3,451k are actually for 12 months, not 9 months. I don't think this is that bad at all for a company that drills its own wells. There would also be some one off cost relating to MAD's first year of listing on the ASX.

Wells on a steap decline is new to me. The last time I modelled the production per well, it was increasing over time. My understanding is that the more holes they drill the better they understand the land. This is further evidenced by the increasing reserves and new deeper prospects identified.





I had a look into their quarterley report (June) and it is slightly worrying that they are still making a loss at 700BOPD and not an insignifcant loss. Net Operating cash flow for the 9 months was negative $6.567 million and for the quarter ended June was negative $761k. Their admin costs are high at $3.451 million for the 9 months. Development costs are also very high which is kind of understandable given the amount of drilling.

However, the wells that are producing from now are on a steep curve down as their initial production rates decrease very quickly and in order to keep on production static or increasing their development costs will remain very high. I just wonder at what point (if ever) will they turn a profit??? 1000BOPD, 2000BOPD?? Their costs seem high as they have 9 of their own rigs.

Gazprom
gazprom

[gazprom1]

Gaz I can't agree with you. The June operating cash flow of negative $761k includes $2,976k of development expenditure. Taking this out shows that they are profitable at 700bopd and are able to invest a significant amount of cash back into drilling more wells and increasing production. Production has increased from 371bopd in February to 700 in July, that's almost 200% annualised.

The administration costs of $3,451k are actually for 12 months, not 9 months. I don't think this is that bad at all for a company that drills its own wells. There would also be some one off cost relating to MAD's first year of listing on the ASX.


The administration costs of $3,451k are actually for 12 months, not 9 months. I don't think this is that bad at all for a company that drills its own wells. There would also be some one off cost relating to MAD's first year of listing on the ASX.

Wells on a steap decline is new to me. The last time I modelled the production per well, it was increasing over time. My understanding is that the more holes they drill the better they understand the land. This is further evidenced by the increasing reserves and new deeper prospects identified.

Thanks for your comments Corporate.

I would like to get to the bottom of the numbers, so let's try and work through the points as I can't agree with your comments:

1. Development expenditure is only going to have to continue in order to increase production or in fact to hold production. That is, if you look at the past 3 quarterley reports the developments cost have been between $2 and $3 million per quarter - on an increasing basis. If development stops then production will drift south.

2. Admin costs of $3.45 million are indeed for 12 months - sorry. However, the costs are running at an annualised rate for the last quarter at in excess of $4.5 million. If the trend continues they will be north of $5 million on an annualised rate this quarter.

3. Production per well - we must be looking at different data. I have not looked at all the wells but took a look at a few between May and June. Gordon #228 May was 85BOPD, July down to 50BOPD, Gordon #225 May was 73BOPD, July down to 25 BOPD, Zivley #165 May 25BOPD July down to 12BOPD. From those three wells alone they have lost 95BOPD. If they have 24 odd producing wells for 700BOPD they would have to bring on 3 wells to make up for the loss. This corresponds to my understanding of a yield curves on a wells like this. AZZ has a good slide on production rates albeit from a different area that show a declining yield curve. I think BUR does as well.

3. You mention 371BOPD in Feb through to 700 in July. This may be so but in November 2010 they were at 367 so the annualised rate of increase needs to be viewed over a longer time period to give an accurate picture of what they are doing. I note the rate of increase during the past few months is slowing. This is because of decreasing rates from producing wells. I do believe that MAD will bring on more wells and production will go up but so will development and admin costs.

Look forward to your thoguhts Corporate.

Gaz

[Corporate]

Gaz, you've made some good points. I can't reply in full until next week (heading to the ski field).

I will say that I'm not sure it is as black and white as you outline. MAD are a very small company ploughing every dollar into wells, rigs and generally building capacity. They've only been listed for a very short time and the more wells they drill the more profitable they have become. If the ground is as good as they say, at some time there will be a tipping point and we'll see the hockey stick effect in production, cashflow and the share price.

I still only have a very small holding and I'm waiting to see if the ground is as good as the reserves indicate.




Thanks for your comments Corporate.

I would like to get to the bottom of the numbers, so let's try and work through the points as I can't agree with your comments:

1. Development expenditure is only going to have to continue in order to increase production or in fact to hold production. That is, if you look at the past 3 quarterley reports the developments cost have been between $2 and $3 million per quarter - on an increasing basis. If development stops then production will drift south.

2. Admin costs of $3.45 million are indeed for 12 months - sorry. However, the costs are running at an annualised rate for the last quarter at in excess of $4.5 million. If the trend continues they will be north of $5 million on an annualised rate this quarter.

3. Production per well - we must be looking at different data. I have not looked at all the wells but took a look at a few between May and June. Gordon #228 May was 85BOPD, July down to 50BOPD, Gordon #225 May was 73BOPD, July down to 25 BOPD, Zivley #165 May 25BOPD July down to 12BOPD. From those three wells alone they have lost 95BOPD. If they have 24 odd producing wells for 700BOPD they would have to bring on 3 wells to make up for the loss. This corresponds to my understanding of a yield curves on a wells like this. AZZ has a good slide on production rates albeit from a different area that show a declining yield curve. I think BUR does as well.

3. You mention 371BOPD in Feb through to 700 in July. This may be so but in November 2010 they were at 367 so the annualised rate of increase needs to be viewed over a longer time period to give an accurate picture of what they are doing. I note the rate of increase during the past few months is slowing. This is because of decreasing rates from producing wells. I do believe that MAD will bring on more wells and production will go up but so will development and admin costs.

Look forward to your thoguhts Corporate.

Gaz

[ELYOB]

Looks like Xmas , but what will Xmas 2011 be . Cash burn is going to have consequences . They fail to achieve what they have said to analyst site visits earlier this year . Game plan slides every month .

Not holding...Maybe MAD

[Corporate]

Drilling report out

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110907/pdf/420yggnjp69hn2.pdf

IMO this is a stunner....26 wells either flowing or pumping. At an average of 30bopd that's 780bopd.

[msgoldenhair]

breaking out today?

[drillfix]

Hi ms,

Yeah, haven't saw a candle like that on MAD for quite sometime or if ever.

Nice close @ 28c above the previous high @ 27.5c makes this interesting with a solid green candlestick.

Meanwhile, lower down,

A bunch of converging EMA's getting previously twisted may potentially become unraveled.

Daily indicators show the:

MFI also higher than the previous high, positive
MACD histogram turn positive with signal line cross, positive
Williams %R up top now to overbought condition, positive (though caution)
RSI is up to near 80 (which is also overbought but strong), positive
OBV is also moved upward to its high, positive.
Volume is great and has not been as high since Aug 2011


The news was good obviously but how long will it last for or how long will the momentum continue? I think is the question.

To answer that, it depends on the price of oil, though money and profits also do the talking.

Indicators will turn back eventually and a support is currently there on the price ladder and sellers today have dried up it seems.

I would urge caution buying up at these levels as too many times, when you buy the high, the steam runs out and you potentially find yourself with your pants down wondering what happened so I urge caution regardless of the stock, but more so the situation as it stands currently as it is presented.

Been a while since being in MAD which originally was going to be for a long, but ended up trading in and out numerous times.

The stock still is in range between 52 week high @ 29c & 16c 52 week low.

Good luck to all holders.

[bermuda]

I picked up 500k a while ago expecting simple sailing but the recent CR and market blues dealt me choppy waters. In the green now and the sail is wet for an increasingly profitable journey. Very stable situation for MAD with huge reserves to draw on. Hopefully we can get production over 1000 bbls per day before too long. I holding long term.

It should outperform and has a valuation of nearly $1 according to the experts.

Returned home from hols and was pleasantly surprised to see MAD climbing and hitting that 1000 bbls/day. This is a very safe play with huge upside. It has been a bit of a wait but good things take time.

[soulman]

Wow...one positive in a dismal day. Sold at 31. Lucky.

[drillfix]

As always, well done Souly, you have a great knack of picking when the party is easing :)

[soulman]

I am back in at 28. That was my original purchase price. Free rolling. Lots of sellers and lots of buyers.....A tug of war.

Now I hope the party continues.

[soulman]

MAD was going mad yesterday. Did not maximised opps but still good.

[macduffy]

Although MAD has had a stellar climb recently it's still flying very low under the radar IMO.

With 2P reserves of 72mm boe it compares well with the much larger BPT who claim 77mmboe. But BPT has a M/Cap of over $1.5b, giving a value of $19.50 boe. MAD's M/Cap, fully diluted for options is around $110m. making its 2P reserves valued at only $1.50 boe. Needless to say I'm holding a few MAD.

:cool:

[drillfix]

My oh my, this company is just full of beans is it not.

No shortage of good news from these guys. But starting to appear a bit toppy on the daily for me.

[msgoldenhair]

had a nice two weeks; well done soulman

[macduffy]

Commercial oil at MAD's first Nash Dome drill.

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MAD&E=ASX&N=239094

One of the attractions of this stock is the frequency of shallow, low cost drills which they are able to undertake. And with their own drills!

SP has responded favourably.

[drillfix]

It goes to show the long trade usually wins the race money wise Macduff.

I remember being in and out of this a few times in the mid to low 20's.

Trading can be tricking whilst trying to be in many places at once taking more than one type of position in many stocks for me is near impossible as it would for many no doubt.

Have full confidence in MAD and I am sure overtime will continue on the march after a few breathers.

[shasta]

It goes to show the long trade usually wins the race money wise Macduff.

I remember being in and out of this a few times in the mid to low 20's.

Trading can be tricking whilst trying to be in many places at once taking more than one type of position in many stocks for me is near impossible as it would for many no doubt.

Have full confidence in MAD and I am sure overtime will continue on the march after a few breathers.

I keep getting spam from Motley Fool pumping the stuffing out of MAD, becareful of a Friday sell off.

Isn't the market shut for Australia Day today?

[drillfix]

I keep getting spam from Motley Fool pumping the stuffing out of MAD, becareful of a Friday sell off.

Isn't the market shut for Australia Day today?

Big 10/4 there Shasta, am slightly a tad cautious on the technicals being toppy, so thanks for the reminder.

Also, yep its Oztralia day tammara m8ty :)

So holiday and no trading on ASX tomorrow /today~!

[soulman]

had a nice two weeks; well done soulman

Thanks msgoldenhair. And congrats on your entry too. Must make the hay when the sun is shining.

[drillfix]

MAD getting MAD again it seems.

Plenty of buying pressure that's for sure.

Those of you who bought the 30 breakout or lower must be very pleased.

Am a little reluctant to enter on this run up as the indicators, "still" are quite high up there, but I think I said this the last time...LOL

[bermuda]

I picked up 500k a while ago expecting simple sailing but the recent CR and market blues dealt me choppy waters. In the green now and the sail is wet for an increasingly profitable journey. Very stable situation for MAD with huge reserves to draw on. Hopefully we can get production over 1000 bbls per day before too long. I holding long term.

It should outperform and has a valuation of nearly $1 according to the experts.

It takes a while but this thing could go a long way. This thing has serious reserves and that is what MAJORS like.

[macduffy]

MAD having another good run today - up 12.9% at present.

Nothing mad about it though. Their 2P reserves are still valued at around $2/bboe which has got to be the cheapest going on the ASX!

[soulman]

You in McDuff?

Caught some midway through today at 44. So got lucky.

[macduffy]

You in McDuff?

Caught some midway through today at 44. So got lucky.

Yes, not a lot but well under today's price. My "strategy" is to buy some more if the momentum carries on. Missed out today through inattention! Tomorrow's another day.

:mellow:

[soulman]

What a masterpiece eh McDuff. MAD has not taken a breather at all since mid Jan. The Motley Fool has spunned this baby to be the best performer in January 2012.

[macduffy]

Yes, indeed! But I'd hoped to buy some more today but the run up has left me a bit breathless and I don't know whether to cheer or groan!

I'd feel happier if the Motley Fool would leave it alone now although I guess he/it can take credit for drawing attention and sparking the run.
So I think I'll curb my enthusiasm and be happy to sit while the trend continues to be our friend.

[CMo]

I'm the same... I got in at 36 but just a small parcel.

Happy to hold for the long run though!!

[macduffy]

MAD going mad again today. Up another 10c (16.5%) to 70.5c!

I hold.

[drillfix]

Just when it appears that OBV cannot go any higher, it does.

Dont know how long this will go on like this, but it seems to just keep going.

Good on the early holders for sticking their ground and enjoying the ride :)

[bermuda]

Just when it appears that OBV cannot go any higher, it does.

Dont know how long this will go on like this, but it seems to just keep going.

Good on the early holders for sticking their ground and enjoying the ride :)

Drilly,
I saw this last year and couldn't believe my research so I picked up 500k at 23 cents. It went up to 27 before falling to 20 and I wondered if I had misread it. Now I know I did not misread it. Good luck longs. We are in for a big ride. Their business model is one of the best I have seen and they deal in that black stuff...OIL ( the good stuff ). What a MAD month.

[drillfix]

Well done there Bermuda, and what a nice buffer to have for comfort...lol

It seems since the 13 of Jan 2012 the stock has been completely accumulated by a few insto's whom seem to be in the position to drive the price in whatever direction it suits.

The volumes from the 13 of Jan are off the scale and as much as price is going up, it is being traded up, sold off, traded up and then sold off.

I realise the stock is re rated and agree that they have a superb business model, but from looking at the chart I just dont know sustainable trading like this will go for.

[soulman]

Mixed emotion on this one. Saw the action of MAD late Friday all throughtout closed. Lots of buyer churning though volume.

A bad overseas market on the weekend and I got worried holding more MAD than I like at the closed price of 60.5. Sold half this morning at 63.5 (pre-determined price).

Too bad my other few trade went very badly. And BND did not surge as I thought they would.

Drill, I agree with you re: MAD sustainability and chart busting charts. I guess traders dictate what it will do in the short term.

[macduffy]

Much as I like the fundamentals of this one - lowest priced reserves on the ASX, and yes, all oil not boe gas; great business model; great acreage; frequent drilling - I'm prepared to take some profits at the first real setback in the SP. The next announcement has got to be exceptionally good, IMO, otherwise that setback will occur. Just hope I can move quickly enough to avoid giving back too much profit!

[soulman]

Just sold the other half at 71.5. Wished I held out the other half for nearly as good as this price but oh well....both trade still profitable.

McDuff, I think you are safe in this one. Did you get anymore on the way up?

[drillfix]

The next announcement has got to be exceptionally good, IMO, otherwise that setback will occur. Just hope I can move quickly enough to avoid giving back too much profit!

Well MacDuff, it seems nearly every day MAD keeps reaching a 52 week high so now 73c is the new high.

Meanwhile, the VWAP is showing 0.67xx c

Each to their own but early holders will be having a field day at any point.

If I look at my crystal ball chart though, and if that so called Ann comes how you said MacDuff, then 60c or 55c will be another test zone.

But in the meantime, this thing is on steroids and being traded like a MADman.

Maybe the stock code should have been PCP :P

ps:
Well done again souly~!

[macduffy]

Just sold the other half at 71.5. Wished I held out the other half for nearly as good as this price but oh well....both trade still profitable.

McDuff, I think you are safe in this one. Did you get anymore on the way up?

No, I was frightened off by the speed of the advance.

So much for having a plan! But I'm not really complaining - as long as I stick to Part B and sell at an opportune time!

[drillfix]

And yet another 52 week high.

This stock is hypnotic, and now I cant seem to focus on other stocks because I am enjoying just watching this one move :P

MAC VWAP is now: 0.682c

[soulman]

Thanks Drill but again @75 cents now, sold untimely.

Also, watch out for those sellers later.

[macduffy]

I filched this from another source.

http://www.jochimaker.com/

Scroll down for discussion of MAD.

[drillfix]

I filched this from another source.

http://www.jochimaker.com/

Scroll down for discussion of MAD.


Well, good on him, at least he is free carried.

Bit of a young dude and no doubt one day he will do well over time as he ages but still a long way to go though.

When means plenty of tests and experience of the rights, wrongs, and head trip predicaments this market can give us all.



Talking about fair value, who is the authority here to say, what exactly is fair value for MAD, and is it just the trading or all the Johnny come lately's that are also maintaining this price.

I think eventually the whole charade will draw to a wind down eventually, once whomever finishes their toying and leaves it for the next thing, then I think the market will do its thing, which of course the market is good at.

Meanwhile it appears the companies model is sound though that is completely different from what is happening with all this trading. IMO.

[macduffy]

MAD has received the inevitable speeding ticket from the ASX.

Their response, given the opportunity to make their case, appears to have fueled interest even more!

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120214/pdf/424bhy3k70m2qy.pdf

[drillfix]

Yes Macduff, it worked for a while, but Enter the Bear.

I have said this before I know, but I will say this again. "This is starting to look very Toppy".

For those holding or not holding, how about a game of Name that Doji prior to 4pm :P

[Toulouse - Luzern]

My guess is it will close down compared to the open so an inverted hammer.

[macduffy]

Yes, in my cautious way I sold half my holding on the way down today for an average of 75.5c. A good profit but of course I should have sold them all for 80c!

But not unhappy and now prepared to see how the the other half perform in the longer run.

[drillfix]

Yes, in my cautious way I sold half my holding on the way down today for an average of 75.5c. A good profit but of course I should have sold them all for 80c!

But not unhappy and now prepared to see how the the other half perform in the longer run.

All I can say is Well done Macduffy.

Well done champ and dont worry about selling the high or buying the low, just capture what you need and be cool, which you seem to be, so again Well Done :)

[soulman]

My guess is it will close down compared to the open so an inverted hammer.

Good call TL. Plenty of dosh to be made all the way to 83.5. And that's in the first hour of trading. After the first hour, it has been a downhill ride.

I guess the spruiker need to sell to lock in profits from the 50-60 cents shares bought a few days ago.

Well done McDuff, just remember I sold at 63.5 and 71.5 yesterday, so you got more max value than me. A lot of missed opps but prudence play sometimes makes sense.

Maybe MAD is still in play and a chance to re-enter at the low 60's could well play out. Either way, trader's dictate the plays. Charting could be crucial since we all know the FA looks good.

[macduffy]

We often hear that the "professsionals" call the first hour of trading "amateur hour" but I've never understood whether this related to buying or selling?

I'm content to be an "amateur" as long as I can work more wins than losses!

[moimoi]

Well done Macduffy, tho after plucking out that winner you may have to change your nick to MACDADDY!. ;-)

[drillfix]

Just a quick chart for summary purposes taken from yesterdays spike for MAD.


MAD daily and weekly > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/c7yvw7hck2kest0gcw_MAD.png

[macduffy]

Another bullish announcement from MAD today.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120223/pdf/424kn343tb8v29.pdf

It will be interesting to see how it trades tomorrow.

I'm still holding a few.

[CMo]

Trading Halt ANN ... "Maverick intends to undertrake a placement to institutional and Sophisticated Investors. Given the potential size of the placement, MAD considers it appropriate that it enters into a trading halt.

[macduffy]

The cynic in me suggests that this explains the recent weakness in the SP!

Will be interesting to see the price at which the placement is made.

;)

[drillfix]

The cynic in me suggests that this explains the recent weakness in the SP!

Will be interesting to see the price at which the placement is made.

;)


Macduff, with regards to the weakness in sp, dont know if its the suspicion of a placement, as no stock continually goes up as this beast has for as long as it has without taking an actual breather and consolidating somewhere. Of course, all IMO.

As CMo mentions, the company says "Given the potential size of the placement" I would think it would be at least 10% approx so I would guess that 65c placement would be an approximation.


Anybody want play spot the placement, step right up, MacDuff, you and manage the comp :P

[macduffy]

My suspicion extends a bit further to a leak in the good ship MAD but I agree that no stock climbs without a few falls backwards.

I reckon your 65c will be close to the mark - anything more might be difficult to place but much less would be a disappointing dilution.

I plead incompetence in the matter of managing a competition however.

:)

[drillfix]

My suspicion extends a bit further to a leak in the good ship MAD but I agree that no stock climbs without a few falls backwards.

I reckon your 65c will be close to the mark - anything more might be difficult to place but much less would be a disappointing dilution.

I plead incompetence in the matter of managing a competition however.

:)


Another good summary Macduff~!

Dont worry about the comp, I am sure other readers who enjoy the social ST ramps will post their thoughts if they wish to and then it will take care of itself :P

[CMo]

Why not.. I think they must have been talking this week (when SP was above 80), so I'm going to say a monster 70c.

[drillfix]

Well, there you have it hey, 60c to soph and insto's at 13.4% discount.

Fast money, but it totally sucks to continually give the wealth to those with more as per usual.

Not holding but hate seeing this crap all the time.

[soulman]

I took off my sell order early this morning on MAD. Was going to sell it for a loss at 76.5 cents but cancel it just to wait and see.

Lucky but geez, NWE rise today.....missed out.

[CMo]

I took off my sell order early this morning on MAD. Was going to sell it for a loss at 76.5 cents but cancel it just to wait and see.

Lucky but geez, NWE rise today.....missed out.


Haha!!... I was shuffling money around in my head to see where i should position myself for today... decided on doing nothing and just sitting tight on holdings.

MAD + 13% NWE +31% WCL +9%

With their respective situations, I'm inclined to keep holding all three.

P.S - Wouldn't have minded a bit more MAD at 60c though.

[macduffy]

Given the 12% rise today I guess we can forgive the 13.4% discount.

But yes, drilly, it's still rather galling to see the "sophisticates" benefit to that extent.

[ELYOB]

This doing well ; but it is here where structural problems develop . Running own drill rigs for oilers is not a good thing . It is growing fast and really do people know what could be happening on the patch . It seems to me we go with momentum to a $1 based on reserve announcements without production expanding at faster rate . Not wise for valuations .... I would consider taking profits and find something else . But dreamers and rampers think this is going to be a billion dollar Exxon look alike .

[drillfix]

Some potentially very wise words there ELYOB.

Also since there has been a couple of sectors on the march along with many stocks, it seems unfortunate that this place (other threads) is starting to sound a bit like that other forum with wild predictions coming from god knows where.

[soulman]

Big run up on MAD the last few days. Heading towards $1 and then.......

[soulman]

MAD strong finish today suggest the $1 mark will go through tomorrow and maybe for the first time closing at $1.00+. Just observing the strong opening and close today at near the high point. I am lock and loaded on MAD.

[Rabbi]

MAD strong finish today suggest the $1 mark will go through tomorrow and maybe for the first time closing at $1.00+. Just observing the strong opening and close today at near the high point. I am lock and loaded on MAD.

You can't argue with the market but it all depends how you put a value on a stock like MAD.
2P reserves seems to be the going rate.
How much money they can make doesn't seem to come into consideration.
I should have bought these at 20 cents after Peter Strachan tipped them out. :mad ;:

[macduffy]

Still holding my few but it's a scary ride as the SP gains around 11-12% again today!

[soulman]

Got this one all over the place but sold a few before close. Messy early sell (based on Wall Street performance overnight) followed by a nice re-buy at a slightly higher price.

My feeling is that $1.20 might be touched tomorrow before a breather.

[soulman]

Yep, thanks souly and then you sold out cheaper than $1.20. One for the books and experience. Still a great ride from mid 90's.

Just talking/ranting to myself here.

McDuff, it seems MAD will now hovers around these prices based on previous movement. Although you never know in this market, it might as well keep climbing to $1.50. It's definitely a LT hold until the trend says otherwise. Well done for having faith in the trend, albeit a very steep and uprising trend.

[drillfix]

Good call there Souly.

Had an order in at 1.14 but as you know, I am not much of a chaser.

Another 52 week high from these guys, and I think I better get an entry somewhere, though may leave it till next week.

[soulman]

It seems that the placement of 30 mil shares at 60 cents have just doubled in less than a month. Sophisticated and professional investor. Geez, the insider got it good. Just look at STX and TTE among others.

[macduffy]

Well done for having faith in the trend, albeit a very steep and uprising trend.
Soulman, I put it down to luck and indecision!

But yes, I try to ride the trend with my oils and miners although a failure of nerve normally gets the better of me at some stage!

:scared:

Disc: Hanging in at present.

[macduffy]

Some might think I lost my nerve - but I took an executive decision today and sold.

:cool:

The slope of that trend just seems too steep to be maintained - but then I'm often wrong in such matters!

[drillfix]

Some might think I lost my nerve - but I took an executive decision today and sold.

:cool:

The slope of that trend just seems too steep to be maintained - but then I'm often wrong in such matters!


You dont like Rock climbing, thats understandable Macduff...LOL

Bet ya got no regrets though :)

[soulman]

Sorry to hear MacDuff. $1.45 tommorrow.....Just kid. I am not in anymore and don't intend to chase these lofty prices.

[STRAT]

Some might think I lost my nerve - but I took an executive decision today and sold.

:cool:

The slope of that trend just seems too steep to be maintained - but then I'm often wrong in such matters!No sign of weakness yet Macduffy. Mind you. Any of you fellas that got on last year must have a smile on your dial.

[CMo]

Anyone else still holding?

Macduffy are you back in yet... results due this week.

[bermuda]

Anyone else still holding?

Macduffy are you back in yet... results due this week.

Still holding and hoping that the Motley guys will make fools of themselves.

[macduffy]

Anyone else still holding?

Macduffy are you back in yet... results due this week.

No, I don't try to catch falling knives any more! Phaedrus' lessons had their effect!

It's a down day everywhere today so not trying to make sense of any market movements. I still like MAD's longer term prospects but they got too frothy for me so I'll wait for things to quieten down and for an uptrend to become established - hopefully!

[CMo]

Ding Dong!! Nash delivers.

Minor delay of no more than 10 days for full results, but 4 oil pay zones, 2 natural gas. Groce #182 expected to be excellent producer, potentially more than Groce #181.

Another short leg up today a pull back and another rise on the actual figures???

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01286842

[CMo]

More news with Maverick announcing more acerage and further options on land around Nash.

"Maverick`s Nash acreage more than doubles" - http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120426/pdf/425tb6m54h7fht.pdf

This has still got a long way to run in my opinion. Good news just keeps coming.

[Corporate]

Is anyone following the MAD story?

It has been a tough few years for shareholders but it seems the new CEO has plans to resurrect the company.

This is quite a good presentation http://www.morgans.com.au/about-us/Media-and-Events/Videos/Maverick-presentation

MAD is currently in a trading halt regarding the outcome of a significant capital raising.

There is a reserve review under way that will probably decrease the 1P reserve level (to a more believable number).

[slimwin]

Yep, I have too. :(
Mr Yeager may yet transform this company so the reality matches the speculation. Lets see what the money is for...