PDA

View Full Version : Seeka



Pages : [1] 2 3 4 5

Joshuatree
21-07-2011, 12:49 PM
NTA $4.43 'shareprice re $1.90 , all time low, with PSA disease major contributing factor. Div re 10%. Liquidity terrible. Anyone stuck in this or any experience ,thoughts, researchers notes etc be appreciated,cheers

Lizard
21-07-2011, 03:44 PM
I thought these were Investment Shares like SAT and LIC, so had never looked at them - but looking now, perhaps not the case and anyone can hold?

BIRMANBOY
21-07-2011, 03:59 PM
This is the classic "punt and pray". I am buying a little but keep lowering the offer prices and it keeps dropping....its either going to keep dropping as people keep doing the same or it will reach a point where existing holders cant be bothered giving it away. My guess is a lot of the growers have shares and and are uncertain about situation as well. As clint said, "are you feeling lucky punk"?
NTA $4.43 'shareprice re $1.90 , all time low, with PSA disease major contributing factor. Div re 10%. Liquidity terrible. Anyone stuck in this or any experience ,thoughts, researchers notes etc be appreciated,cheers

p2r
21-07-2011, 04:11 PM
They are/were a very good company and are leading the fight against PSA bacteria whereas the beauracrats are sitting on their hands. If they can get an antibiotic working in the next 6 weeks they will have saved a billion dollar export industry and will be heroes in it cos they have skin in the game - biggest packing organisation and also own orchards. Otherwise if they fail (go the way of Italy) Te Puke & they are stuffed although there is still the avocados, and they have the best lab in the world now for PSA testing! I wish MAF and Zespri would get in behind them more. Will be an awesome story for a documentry or investigative journalist. Last year gold kiwifruit was the biggest paying land use in NZ ... this year it may be worth bare land value a potential disaster not much smaller than Christchurch.

Joshuatree
22-07-2011, 12:10 PM
p2r thanks for those details. Whether they can manage PSA without losing too much on the bottom line ,or not time will tell, i hope so, for the industry.One ex grower i spoke to is not optimistic and is stuck with his shares; liquidity is bad. Do Growers who sign up with the packhouse get offered shares and then can sell them on NZX afetr escrow? Im guessing yes, so tradeable Liz. Any kiwifruit growers on sharetrader with your eperience be great to hear,cheers.

Joshuatree
27-07-2011, 04:46 PM
In Todays Te Puke times "PSA halves value of kiwifruit industry" " On Nov 1 before PSA was found the industry as a whole was worth more than $4billion dollars. The loss in value had occurred despite the fact that PSA V ,the most virulent form of the bacterial disease so far affected only slightly more than FOUR PERCENT and that the majortity of growers harvested crops this season." 50 million dollars is avail to find a solution which includes new PSA resistant varieties.

p2r
27-07-2011, 09:27 PM
I think you need to have leaves to see it, so wait for spring to see and if 4% of a population has a disease it can explode so to speak, especially after stress. It affects the gold especially which is the valuable one. Look what happened in Italy as they are ahead of NZ in the disease. I think the industry is wiped out there.
I think finding PSA resistant varieties is a good idea but you would be looking at many years to get them established and have to cut out the old stuff first. Just my thoughts ... I have no special insight.

Joshuatree
28-07-2011, 10:17 PM
cheers p2r. Looks like just one more for my long term spring watchlist sigh. Heres hoping those new leaves will be natures resistant perfection.

Random_Walker
29-07-2011, 09:00 PM
What about Satara? Isn't it cheaper compared to Seeka?

Joshuatree
29-07-2011, 09:44 PM
Cheaper? Dont know RW. Where is it listed? And shares MAY be more estricted to growers.

Random_Walker
30-07-2011, 04:04 PM
Cheaper? Dont know RW. Where is it listed? And shares MAY be more estricted to growers.

It's listed on the NZX as well plus there are no restrictions on its investor share register. Anyone can own them, however looks very illiquid as well. But I think its trading at 25% - 30% of asset values plus has revamped commercial management and board members in place.

Joshuatree
02-08-2011, 10:56 AM
Found it on NZAX 55c NTA $1.81. Last div mar 2010 2cents. 247 growers with 1123 canopy Ha, 113 Avo only growers. Reduced debt to $7.7mill (2010). Im no forensics accounts analyst but a value trap for the contrarian m,aybe.If they can manage PSA could be great divvy stream from SEK or this co.Too risky for me right now.

Random_Walker
02-08-2011, 09:47 PM
Found it on NZAX 55c NTA $1.81. Last div mar 2010 2cents. 247 growers with 1123 canopy Ha, 113 Avo only growers. Reduced debt to $7.7mill (2010). Im no forensics accounts analyst but a value trap for the contrarian m,aybe.If they can manage PSA could be great divvy stream from SEK or this co.Too risky for me right now.

If I remember correctly there have been two takeover bids for SAT in the past few years. Both made by Eastpack.

Believe latest bid was at ~$1.25 / share and was about to close but then PSA struck and Eastpack withdrew till they worked out the consequences.

Prior bid was by Eastpack in 2006 or 2007 and I believe in the $1.40 - $1.50 range / share and Satara rejected it I think - dumbarse board back then? Board looks like its been almost fully changed since as a result of insto shareholder agitation.

RazorX
12-09-2011, 04:30 PM
This one took a dive today - 20 cents or 14.29%

https://nzx.com/markets/NZSX/securities/SEK

Gross Dividend yield at 22.5%

I know there has been trouble in the Kiwifruit industry lately, but could this stock be one to watch? That divi yield is... well off the charts so to speak. Obviously one would want to wait for a confirmed uptrend before buying.

Joshuatree
12-09-2011, 07:15 PM
Huge gamble RazorX. New leaves will be emerging soon on the kiwi vines.Will there be PSA symptons on them and will they spread like wildfire.? Will they find a way to control it ? Some say yes with this 'antibiotic' spray.Can they learn not to go like Italy? where the wipeout rate was horrible.Will watch and listen and read.

iceman
12-09-2011, 09:54 PM
Huge gamble RazorX. New leaves will be emerging soon on the kiwi vines.Will there be PSA symptons on them and will they spread like wildfire.? Will they find a way to control it ? Some say yes with this 'antibiotic' spray.Can they learn not to go like Italy? where the wipeout rate was horrible.Will watch and listen and read.

My understanding is that Seeka has not committed to go with the antibiotic spraying for the Gold variety as they don't have enough info on the potential consequences. The jury is therefore out on that one. So until the new leaves emerge and will be analysed, noone really knows what will happen. A very risky investment indeed !

Joshuatree
12-09-2011, 10:32 PM
Seeka def arent using spray at this point.Other orchadists are and heres hoping.Orchards aligned to diff Management/Packhouse companies next to each other puts them all in the same boat but could cause probs.. Seeka have some highly qualified people looking for a way to deal/contain PSA. Best of luck to the Industry.

kizame
16-09-2011, 04:42 PM
Word has it that they are preparing to downsize,offering vuluntary redundancy to permanent staff,in expectation of a reduced crop and margins next season,hmmn just how bad is PSA,last time I heard it was only 2% of total crop.

janner
16-09-2011, 05:46 PM
I think the operative word here maybe " Permanent " staff..

If allowed to get out of hand in times of plenty..

Very difficult to reduce when times are lean..

Easily replaced ( most packhouse type of operations ) as casuals when they need more staff..

Much easier to lay off !!.

Could be a good move .. Profit wise as they say ..

Joshuatree
17-09-2011, 06:05 PM
[,hmmn just how bad is PSA,last time I heard it was only 2% of total crop.[/QUOTE]by kizame .The new leaves are coming on the vines . PSA could spread like wildfire ala Italy. Reading a Seeka announcement(6month report) Swift orchard has been written off $572k already. 300,000 trays of gold were not harvested because of PSA. This is just the beginning. Hope like hell they can find a way to control it.

Joshuatree
19-09-2011, 08:23 PM
I suggest anyone considering buying into Seeka or Satara have a look at Seekas latest announcement. It finishes with "...outbreak of the disease has the potential to seriously impact on future earnings of the company" .Thats honesty for you.

p2r
20-09-2011, 06:55 AM
I haven't heard anything much on the research side that would be positive medium term. Last season they tried the antibiotic/ probiotic spray from BASF which I heard was useless but I imagine desparate growers are trying it. Not Seeka anymore. The best hope was for drilling into sap and pumping antibiotic under pressure - used in apples apparently. Otherwise what is there ... rip up the vines, look for resistant plants, or head in sand.
I would say at the moment the wealth destruction in the industry would be similar to finance companies in 2007...but opportunities for tax write offs or more positively a white knight in a lab coat...

Random_Walker
11-11-2011, 07:54 AM
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SAT/announcements/216177

Thoughts?

smpl
21-02-2012, 11:31 AM
SEK lowest offer of 7,598 @ $1.77, could be placed to pop.

Edit. Lowest Bid was 10,000 @ $0.93

smpl
23-02-2012, 09:17 AM
Lowest Bids
5000 @ $1.00
4000 @ $1.02

Highest Offers
7,598 @ $1.77
2,534 @ $1.78

smpl
23-02-2012, 12:35 PM
now up 10.87%

GTM 3442
23-02-2012, 06:09 PM
They were well oversold in the PSA panic. But interestingly, Satara aren't showing the same resilience. Any ideas why not ?

kizame
24-02-2012, 02:43 PM
I think Satara are having their difficulties,1 season ago Eastpack were looking to merge,then came PSA and they pulled out,then SEEKA had their go,I don't think they are efficient enough in this competitive industry,it all comes to packout cost,i.e cost of packing per tray,and apparently they only have one decent packhouse right in Te Puke,with a few smaller less efficient ones,plus they are losing growers.

GTM 3442
24-02-2012, 04:26 PM
Thank you Kizame.

smpl
14-03-2012, 02:59 PM
Lowest Bids
5000 @ $1.00
4000 @ $1.02

Highest Offers
7,598 @ $1.77
2,534 @ $1.78

SEK currently up 18.7%, with over 7000 taken out at $1.46. There is still 55,000 on the buy side and only 9,000 on the sell.

If the 9,000 offered at $2.45 is taken out, SEK will be up over 160% today! This is following it being up 23% ove the last two days.

GTM 3442
14-03-2012, 06:11 PM
Should've bought more.
Should've bought more.
Should've bought more.

B*gger !


Is there still time, d'you think ? Or move on to Satara ?

smpl
15-03-2012, 08:33 AM
highest offers around $2.45 today.

BIRMANBOY
21-02-2013, 04:13 PM
The NTA is like 3.89 per share as of December....at SP of 1.45 last trade and earnings of 49 or something? this could be a usefull SPEC for the bravehearted. Until its drop it was trading 2.50 to 3 plus with dividends.

kizame
21-02-2013, 05:50 PM
Be careful with this one,we have had a dry summer so PSA has been slowed,they have shed a lot of staff,and with that goes an aweful lot of experience.they have grafted over 2,000 hectares in new variety gold,but time will tell.
I was always told never invest in Horticulture,meet processing or airline stocks.

Joshuatree
21-02-2013, 06:05 PM
I drive past recently grafted over kiwifruit stumps often. Im sure i can see dieback in the new leaves already. Hope its not PSA. The new variety G3 i think it is, was only thought to have more resistance so heres hoping.

BIRMANBOY
22-02-2013, 05:00 PM
Well the usefullness of that would be totally dependant on who told you wouldnt it? Air NZ is up nicely..dont know about others but wouldnt exclude them from being looked at objectively. People gotta eat, growing population, more people flying worldwide. If people didnt believe in these industries and didnt put money and capital into them would be a waste of NZ resources and a criminal lack of attention to what we do well.....growing great produce and meat products.
Be careful with this one,we have had a dry summer so PSA has been slowed,they have shed a lot of staff,and with that goes an aweful lot of experience.they have grafted over 2,000 hectares in new variety gold,but time will tell.
I was always told never invest in Horticulture,meet processing or airline stocks.

kizame
22-02-2013, 05:20 PM
Well the usefullness of that would be totally dependant on who told you wouldnt it? Air NZ is up nicely..dont know about others but wouldnt exclude them from being looked at objectively. People gotta eat, growing population, more people flying worldwide. If people didnt believe in these industries and didnt put money and capital into them would be a waste of NZ resources and a criminal lack of attention to what we do well.....growing great produce and meat products.

And as a long term investment, compare air to rym,I know which id prefer,they are only good for a short term upward movement.
Have a look at the track records of the likes of seeka,satara,tasman agriculture from a few years back,affco.Hmmn find anything attractive to hold onto there?

percy
22-02-2013, 05:36 PM
Well the usefullness of that would be totally dependant on who told you wouldnt it? Air NZ is up nicely..dont know about others but wouldnt exclude them from being looked at objectively. People gotta eat, growing population, more people flying worldwide. If people didnt believe in these industries and didnt put money and capital into them would be a waste of NZ resources and a criminal lack of attention to what we do well.....growing great produce and meat products.


Yeah Right.That advice may have come from a guy named Warren Buffet.Ignore it if you like.

blobbles
22-02-2013, 08:06 PM
Check out that volume today, a massive 23c rise... on volume of 4800 and a value of less than $8k? Whaaaaat??

BIRMANBOY
22-02-2013, 08:39 PM
Thats why I said the degree of usefullness would be dependant on who "told" him. Perhaps he wasnt "told" so much as read it somewhere in which case it would have had more believability if the "teller" had been revealed. The devil is in the details. Personally I dont believe in God like status so even if St. Warren had said it I would still do my own research which was my point after all.


Yeah Right.That advice may have come from a guy named Warren Buffet.Ignore it if you like.

BIRMANBOY
22-02-2013, 08:45 PM
I wouldnt touch any as a long term investment ...doesnt mean many people dont have good jobs, produce valuable, usefull products , have succesfull business's and make good livings out of these sectors. Dismissing them as unworthy of investment is simplistic and smacks too much of generalization and too little thought.



And as a long term investment, compare air to rym,I know which id prefer,they are only good for a short term upward movement.
Have a look at the track records of the likes of seeka,satara,tasman agriculture from a few years back,affco.Hmmn find anything attractive to hold onto there?

BIRMANBOY
24-02-2013, 02:47 PM
Sparky, there website is quite informative www.seeka.co.nz (http://seeka.co.nz). They are also getting revenues from green kiwi which is not affected by PSV, by growing advocado sales, packhouse storage and shipping etc.. Not just growers so they actually have good diversification within that sector. PSV is still a problem but eventually this has to be overcome (or bypassed by new cultivars)
Buffett on airlines as an investment:

Congrats to those who've made money from Air NZ. Your timing is excellent, even if your asset choice was not!

As for Seeka and the Kiwifruit industry, I am intrigued at comments by Moosie that PSA is not conquered but that things seem to be getting better? I'd like to learn more about this. Can someone point me in the direction of a good place to learn more?

macduffy
25-02-2013, 11:46 AM
The contorting of the English language never ceases to amaze.

I've just heard the Seeka boss talk about having to "restructure our headcount". I think I know what he meant.

Joshuatree
26-02-2014, 10:05 AM
6 cent div announced. heres hoping the cycle is entering an up one. Anyone heard how the crop is shaping up and i havnt heard any negative re pSA effecting the graft overs atp. Dryer conditions have helped.

BIRMANBOY
26-02-2014, 01:31 PM
Yes a quiet achiever...its now returning over 9% gross dividend yield for me. Was worth holding on after all.
6 cent div announced. heres hoping the cycle is entering an up one. Anyone heard how the crop is shaping up and i havnt heard any negative re pSA effecting the graft overs atp. Dryer conditions have helped.

Joshuatree
26-02-2014, 01:47 PM
7c div actually. Congrats BB everyone else is eating dirt. See the re $1.25 spread :)

martinchnz1
21-11-2014, 07:33 PM
No one interested in Kiwifruit these days... ? :/ looking at some Horticulture based stocks, but Seeka seems scarily quiet compared to other couple hort stocks on NZX. Hidden gem or?? Would think the Kiwifruit industry is on the upside after the recent history, or is it still seen as a high risk call?

Disc: noob

BFG
21-11-2014, 08:38 PM
Used to watch it around 90 cents during the PSA scare. Was too illiquid for my taste. Should have eaten the fruit (and the skin too).

Disc: Canadian

BIRMANBOY
22-11-2014, 10:26 AM
This is not particularly liquid but is worth keeping an eye on looking for the occasional dip. Your interest is probably well placed but maybe ill timed since its SP may be close to fully priced. Last 6 months has been between 2.65 to 3.50. I think there is still upward movement however in the future and even now the dividend yield is quite respectable 15 cents 2014 (4.84% plus imputation credits.) They seem to be a well run outfit and are quite diversified in what they do so I don't believe they are high risk. I have been holding since 2011 and it has been a good investment for me..nice dividend yield and also capital growth.
No one interested in Kiwifruit these days... ? :/ looking at some Horticulture based stocks, but Seeka seems scarily quiet compared to other couple hort stocks on NZX. Hidden gem or?? Would think the Kiwifruit industry is on the upside after the recent history, or is it still seen as a high risk call?

Disc: noob

Chaowee88
22-11-2014, 11:07 AM
I had a holding in this but sold after it was hit by PSA, really hurting now that it share price has recovered !

BIRMANBOY
22-11-2014, 11:48 AM
But if it hadn't recovered you would have been congratulating yourself.....as they say.. dammed if you do and dammed if you don't:)...That's why its called the Share MARKET...anything could happen and quite often does...:p
I had a holding in this but sold after it was hit by PSA, really hurting now that it share price has recovered !

Chaowee88
22-11-2014, 12:28 PM
Yea, it was a valuable lesson. Really shows the importance of patient.

martinchnz1
22-11-2014, 03:47 PM
This is not particularly liquid but is worth keeping an eye on looking for the occasional dip. Your interest is probably well placed but maybe ill timed since its SP may be close to fully priced. Last 6 months has been between 2.65 to 3.50. I think there is still upward movement however in the future and even now the dividend yield is quite respectable 15 cents 2014 (4.84% plus imputation credits.) They seem to be a well run outfit and are quite diversified in what they do so I don't believe they are high risk. I have been holding since 2011 and it has been a good investment for me..nice dividend yield and also capital growth.

I decided to grab a tiny bundle at 306 since the dividend yield and diversification it will give me is attractive. Never know, current macro events such as the free trade South Korea agreement and lower dollar could push some more growth. Appears like a strong solid firm as you say so for a long term holding sounds good :)
In my brief year of investing I've found chasing a low fluctuation far too speculative. If its a solid company can always top her up when that comes along and if it doesn't eventuate no need to buy in at a higher price.

Chaowee88
22-11-2014, 04:06 PM
I decided to grab a tiny bundle at 306 since the dividend yield and diversification it will give me is attractive. Never know, current macro events such as the free trade South Korea agreement and lower dollar could push some more growth. Appears like a strong solid firm as you say so for a long term holding sounds good :)

I think you've overpaid slightly. Not sure why Seeka is issuing dividends with PSA still lingering, and the fact net debt is higher, probably be around 25 million as they will be cash flow positive in 2nd half at full year makes enterprise value of 25 + 48 = 73 with EBITDA of 11 - 12 = 6 to 6.5 times, or 73 / 3.2 forecast NPAT = 22.81 times. Those numbers seen too high. Probably should only be around $2.70 to $2.80

winner69
22-11-2014, 04:20 PM
I think you've overpaid slightly. Not sure why Seeka is issuing dividends with PSA still lingering, and the fact net debt is higher, probably be around 25 million as they will be cash flow positive in 2nd half at full year makes enterprise value of 25 + 48 = 73 with EBITDA of 11 - 12 = 6 to 6.5 times, or 73 / 3.2 forecast NPAT = 22.81 times. Those numbers seen too high. Probably should only be around $2.70 to $2.80

EV/ebitda of 6 is pretty cheap, specially these days

That's a 16% cash return

Chaowee88
22-11-2014, 05:20 PM
EV/ebitda of 6 is pretty cheap, specially these days

That's a 16% cash return

If you think that cheap then have a look at JWI, it EV/EBITDA is ridiculous then...

aucklandunistudent
22-11-2014, 06:04 PM
JWI has a range of corporate governance issues along with secularly declining sales.

SEK's PE might look high but part of that is because depreciation overstates maintenance CAPEX and the stock is selling below book. SEK is generating strong cashflows and is in a cyclical upswing, as per management forecasts of a long term increase in disease-resistant high-margin golden kiwifruit volumes over the next few years. Given where equity market valuations are at it's real cheap, but there isn't a lot of liquidity so you need to be careful.

Chaowee88
22-11-2014, 06:40 PM
JWI has a range of corporate governance issues along with secularly declining sales.

SEK's PE might look high but part of that is because depreciation overstates maintenance CAPEX and the stock is selling below book. SEK is generating strong cashflows and is in a cyclical upswing, as per management forecasts of a long term increase in disease-resistant high-margin golden kiwifruit volumes over the next few years. Given where equity market valuations are at it's real cheap, but there isn't a lot of liquidity so you need to be careful.

I can assume then that you have a holding in this as it "real cheap"?

If their cash flows are as strong as you put it they wouldn't need to instate a DRP. Their P/E is cheap compared to other nzx shares but for a company still hampered by PSA, there's still a fair bit to do. However, one positive you have pointed out is their NTA which is healthy.

aucklandunistudent
22-11-2014, 09:49 PM
No I am not a holder because it is too illiquid to build up a reasonable holding that you can confidently dispose of the way it is currently trading - that and I am not an expert in the kiwifruit industry, and cannot justify the time investment that knowledge would require given the illiquidity. If I was a holder though I wouldn't be a seller at current prices (because I would have done my homework before buying, and I have a feeling this is a goodie). Have done a bit of work on this one now and will probably do more if I see it drop significantly and I feel there is a lot of upside - may be a buyer then.

While DRPs can be and often are associated with weak cashflows they do not need to be. Just look at the financials - business has been generating strong FFO and CFO with minimal CAPEX over the past few years. CAPEX forecasts in the annuals/presentation are not onerous. Peak FFO was a lot higher than where we are right now, so a lot of potential for non capital intensive cyclical growth as things normalise. CFO bought stock on market recently.

In case you are a beginner I want to caveat all this with I am not an expert in the kiwifruit industry and I might be totally wrong on where things are in the cycle (maybe they are permanently impaired - anybody here have a view on that?) - I haven't done the work to be confident. always DYOR and don't listen to anybody on a forum.

Chaowee88
22-11-2014, 10:50 PM
No I am not a holder because it is too illiquid to build up a reasonable holding that you can confidently dispose of the way it is currently trading - that and I am not an expert in the kiwifruit industry, and cannot justify the time investment that knowledge would require given the illiquidity. If I was a holder though I wouldn't be a seller at current prices (because I would have done my homework before buying, and I have a feeling this is a goodie). Have done a bit of work on this one now and will probably do more if I see it drop significantly and I feel there is a lot of upside - may be a buyer then.

While DRPs can be and often are associated with weak cashflows they do not need to be. Just look at the financials - business has been generating strong FFO and CFO with minimal CAPEX over the past few years. CAPEX forecasts in the annuals/presentation are not onerous. Peak FFO was a lot higher than where we are right now, so a lot of potential for non capital intensive cyclical growth as things normalise. CFO bought stock on market recently.

In case you are a beginner I want to caveat all this with I am not an expert in the kiwifruit industry and I might be totally wrong on where things are in the cycle (maybe they are permanently impaired - anybody here have a view on that?) - I haven't done the work to be confident. always DYOR and don't listen to anybody on a forum.

Strange why anyone says it "real cheap" yet has no holding...

A you trying to ramp the share price up?

Please post some numbers to illustrate your so cheap theory.

noodles
23-11-2014, 08:12 AM
No I am not a holder because it is too illiquid to build up a reasonable holding that you can confidently dispose of the way it is currently trading - that and I am not an expert in the kiwifruit industry, and cannot justify the time investment that knowledge would require given the illiquidity. If I was a holder though I wouldn't be a seller at current prices (because I would have done my homework before buying, and I have a feeling this is a goodie). Have done a bit of work on this one now and will probably do more if I see it drop significantly and I feel there is a lot of upside - may be a buyer then.

While DRPs can be and often are associated with weak cashflows they do not need to be. Just look at the financials - business has been generating strong FFO and CFO with minimal CAPEX over the past few years. CAPEX forecasts in the annuals/presentation are not onerous. Peak FFO was a lot higher than where we are right now, so a lot of potential for non capital intensive cyclical growth as things normalise. CFO bought stock on market recently.

In case you are a beginner I want to caveat all this with I am not an expert in the kiwifruit industry and I might be totally wrong on where things are in the cycle (maybe they are permanently impaired - anybody here have a view on that?) - I haven't done the work to be confident. always DYOR and don't listen to anybody on a forum.

Thank you for you input. It is rare to get such quality input on this forum.

I was talking to a kiwifruit "insider" yesterday. Your thoughts around CAPEX align with his. He is a top 20 holder in Seeka.

percy
23-11-2014, 08:37 AM
JWI has a range of corporate governance issues along with secularly declining sales.

SEK's PE might look high but part of that is because depreciation overstates maintenance CAPEX and the stock is selling below book. SEK is generating strong cashflows and is in a cyclical upswing, as per management forecasts of a long term increase in disease-resistant high-margin golden kiwifruit volumes over the next few years. Given where equity market valuations are at it's real cheap, but there isn't a lot of liquidity so you need to be careful.

Hi Aucklandunistudent,
Welcome to Sharetrader.
I look forward to reading your posts.

Joshuatree
05-03-2015, 08:49 AM
Bummer re fire destroying post harvest shed last night

Packhouse Fire - 5 March 2015 (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209224.pdf)

noodles
05-03-2015, 09:32 AM
Bummer re fire destroying post harvest shed last night

Packhouse Fire - 5 March 2015 (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209224.pdf)

No one injured. Should not affect earnings. More of a distraction at this stage.

The earnings announcement last week beat guidance by about 8%.

Underlying earnings ( excluding one-offs and assuming full year of Glassfields) comes in at 27.5cps. This puts SEK on a pe=11.8 at the current price of 3.25.

But the real story here is the massive growth of G3 gold coming on line in the next 2 years. SEK have already announced volumes for 2015 are going to increase from 21.3m trays to 24-25m trays. There should be a further uplift in 2016. I suspect the FY15 profit growth will strong. However, guidance is probably 6 months away.

BIRMANBOY
05-03-2015, 10:16 AM
Its a shame about its lack of liquidity. Actually has been a very good dividend earner for me and I'm surprised there hasn't been more interest in it. An example of a good business quietly going about its business, making money, not taking any risks, managing its exposure by a diversification program and effectively weathering a bad time in an admirable fashion. I can see this gradually gaining some followers and in years ahead should continue its positive momentum.

noodles
05-03-2015, 12:12 PM
Its a shame about its lack of liquidity. Actually has been a very good dividend earner for me and I'm surprised there hasn't been more interest in it. An example of a good business quietly going about its business, making money, not taking any risks, managing its exposure by a diversification program and effectively weathering a bad time in an admirable fashion. I can see this gradually gaining some followers and in years ahead should continue its positive momentum.

You know Kiwifruit is back in vogue when Orchards are being syndicated
http://myfarm.co.nz/opportunities/kiwifruit

Just more evidence that volumes are on the rise. Given SEK make most of it's money though post-harvest, volume is more important than the commodity price of the kiwifruit. It should be noted that Seeka do do some orcharding of their own.

percy
05-03-2015, 05:11 PM
Its a shame about its lack of liquidity. Actually has been a very good dividend earner for me and I'm surprised there hasn't been more interest in it. An example of a good business quietly going about its business, making money, not taking any risks, managing its exposure by a diversification program and effectively weathering a bad time in an admirable fashion. I can see this gradually gaining some followers and in years ahead should continue its positive momentum.

Totally agree with you .!!!!

noodles
12-03-2015, 07:57 AM
A good article by Alan Williams
https://agrihq.co.nz/article/seeka-continues-to-improve-its-profit?p=321 (https://agrihq.co.nz/article/seeka-continues-to-improve-its-profit?p=321)


Take outs for me:
"Seeka packed 21.34m trays and was budgeting for 30m trays by 2018, with the bulk of the increase being in Gold fruit."
"And a fire at its Te Puke packhouse and coolstore complex would not hamper this season’s output."
"Seeka was interested in acquisitions and the balance sheet gave it “financial freedom of action”, Franks said."

Joshuatree
12-03-2015, 06:45 PM
Gales and heavy rain forecast for tauranga, tepuke area monday from PAM.Eastern ranges of BOP high chance of severe southeast gales and rain. Northern Hawkesbay and Gisborne on hitlist too. Central and South hawesbay are in for it too. Just hope its downgraded.

noodles
28-03-2015, 07:09 PM
It appears there are some tail winds in the kiwifruit industry
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/kiwifruit-industry-set-strong-growth-050442586.html

Even made tv3 news
http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/new-kiwifruit-variety-revives-industry-2015032816

Seeka will be packing a lot more kiwifruit this year. Should translate to $$$

noodles
14-04-2015, 09:12 AM
Some discussion on a competitor, Eastpack, here: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8014-EastPack&p=567649&viewfull=1#post567649

noodles
19-05-2015, 01:39 PM
Looks like Avocado growers are enjoying great yields from Seeka
http://www.seeka.co.nz/top-avocado-returns

All bodes well for the half year result

iceman
20-05-2015, 08:22 AM
Looks like Avocado growers are enjoying great yields from Seeka
http://www.seeka.co.nz/top-avocado-returns

All bodes well for the half year result

Looks like they are having a good harvesting season with around 15M trays packed already, slightly ahead of schedule with about half a million being packed per day at present.
Fruit quality exceptional and volumes up somewhat.
So far so good so hopefully well on track for a good result.

noodles
17-06-2015, 07:44 PM
For those interested, a few more details on their avocado business
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1506/S00600/seekas-commitment-to-innovation-drives-top-avocado-returns.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Wednesday+1 7+June+2015

iceman
17-06-2015, 09:57 PM
Very interesting and positive reading. Thanks for posting noodles. Looks like we may be in for a good year with an outstanding harvest season just completing. Looking forward to the divie increase :t_up:

iceman
18-06-2015, 09:45 AM
A very positive announcement from SEK today. Harvesting numbers up over 10% from what they were forecasting at the ASM less than 2 months ago.

percy
18-06-2015, 10:05 AM
A very positive announcement from SEK today. Harvesting numbers up over 10% from what they were forecasting at the ASM less than 2 months ago.

Am I allowed a ;"I think we are "well positioned." ??????????????" lol.
Pleasing to see the Kiwi fruit industry recovering so well from PSA.

noodles
19-06-2015, 12:47 PM
Michael Franks on the radio. Sounds good
http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/business/bus-mdr-20150619-1223-seeka_says_record_harvest_will_be_a_challenge_to_m anage-048.mp3

iceman
19-06-2015, 01:36 PM
Thanks for the link noodles. Certainly a very good start to get a harvest like this. Hopefully Zespri will do a good job selling it all. Meanwhile SEK is charging for full warehouses and then all the load outs to come. Yes Percy, we are indeed well positioned

noodles
19-06-2015, 02:24 PM
Thanks for the link noodles. Certainly a very good start to get a harvest like this. Hopefully Zespri will do a good job selling it all. Meanwhile SEK is charging for full warehouses and then all the load outs to come. Yes Percy, we are indeed well positioned
Iceman, I'm sure you know this, but for the benefit of other poster's...
Zespri won't sell it all. Seeka will sell kiwifruit (and avocado's) direct to Aussie super markets. $$$

winner69
22-06-2015, 12:38 PM
Sneaky buy today Percy

Bargain at $3.02

Pity the seller didn't have more for you

percy
22-06-2015, 01:50 PM
Sneaky buy today Percy

Bargain at $3.02

Pity the seller didn't have more for you

More astute rather than sneaky,but yes a bargain..
I was surprised to get" my fill" last week at $3.00.Was getting ready to pay $3.25 which I thought was "fair" value.Took my holding to where I wanted.Have DRP so will slowly be adding.

Joshuatree
22-06-2015, 02:33 PM
Its been really illiquid for many years which can be a prob getting in or out in any but tiny volumes.. Only two trades over 50,000 in 2 years!! .SEK in a sweet spot atm but no change in liquidity. Tradeswell under NTA too although i haven't checked lately.

percy
22-06-2015, 04:45 PM
Its been really illiquid for many years which can be a prob getting in or out in any but tiny volumes.. Only two trades over 50,000 in 2 years!! .SEK in a sweet spot atm but no change in liquidity. Tradeswell under NTA too although i haven't checked lately.

Correct.
SEK has only 15,551,233 shares on issue, giving a market cap of $47,431,261 at sp of $3.05.NTA is $3.70.
So it is not a FBU or a RYM,however with the Kiwi fruit industry recovering from PSA,this very well managed, focussed company offers possible excellent rewards, for those of us who are prepared to invest in small illiquid companies.No I do not hold anywhere near 50,000 shares in SEk [at this point in time].
Just part of a well diversified portfolio.

noodles
22-06-2015, 07:40 PM
Correct.
SEK has only 15,551,233 shares on issue, giving a market cap of $47,431,261 at sp of $3.05.NTA is $3.70.
So it is not a FBU or a RYM,however with the Kiwi fruit industry recovering from PSA,this very well managed, focussed company offers possible excellent rewards, for those of us who are prepared to invest in small illiquid companies.No I do not hold anywhere near 50,000 shares in SEk [at this point in time].
Just part of a well diversified portfolio.
It is nice to have a discount to NTA. However, I think a path to higher profitability is what investors are really after.

Fortunately, we know a lot already:
1. In 2014, SEK packed 21m trays.
2. In 2015, SEK packed 27m trays. This is forecast to increase to close to 30m by 2016 (see AGM presentation)
3. In 2014 and 2015 packing margins have been tight across the industry.However, with more fruit coming onto the market, storage capacity will require packers to increase capacity. I'd expect margins to normalise to reflect the lack of spare capacity

So to summarise, in the next couple of years, we should see a 50% increase in volumes and a normalising of packing margins. It is not unrealistic to expect a massive profit jump from 2014 levels.

Shares traded hands at about $3 today. This is the same price as the CEO, Michael Franks, was buying at earlier in the year. So whoever is selling is effectively on the opposite side of the trade as the CEO.

noodles
23-07-2015, 08:09 AM
growth in kiwifuit from 95m trays to 130m in 5 years

http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/business/bus-mnr-20150723-0651-zespris_full_year_kiwifruit_sales_rise_16_percent-048.mp3

Joshuatree
23-07-2015, 08:17 AM
Read more » (http://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/QQMrKma8h6MjbHw96gBRew/gTBfqzNMi6AizEE02Dyojg/Ly2aSZSHWwoS892UNC6slixA) Future looking good sobered a little by this Zespri report

Beagle
23-07-2015, 09:27 AM
What do you folks make of the Zespri talk of headwinds...seems a curious thing to suggest headwinds when the currency has dropped so much ?

noodles
23-07-2015, 09:48 AM
What do you folks make of the Zespri talk of headwinds...seems a curious thing to suggest headwinds when the currency has dropped so much ?
Hi Roger,


Green Kiwifruit prices are forecasted to drop around 10% for the 2015 season.


But this needs to be put in context.


At an EBITDA level, post harvest operations are about 75% of profit. Post harvest operaters do not really care about the price of the fruit. It is all about volume (someone correct me if I'm wrong).


Seeka also has a Orcharding operating. This will be affected by the drop in price. However, they will also be enjoying a boost in volume as Gold come on-line.


Overall, I see the growth in volume being a far greater driver of growth than the price.

percy
23-07-2015, 10:26 AM
What effect on Seeka's exports to Australia do you see?
I see them growing.

Joshuatree
23-07-2015, 10:43 AM
I thought Zespris comments a bit weird but i guess they can see what we can't.Int article from Zespri. For example re 300 million trays of kiwifruit are grown and consumed in China.!! Zespri wants to grow fruit in China again.The last attempt found lots of illegal growing.

I spoke to a Zespri rep based in China a while backand he said their ultimate goal was to market the kiwi fruit in China and not just to its ports. Good luck with that and with their 4 new importers. Two of the last were found guilty of smuggling or under declaration

Wiser Zespri eyes growing fruit in China (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11468151)

Xerof
23-07-2015, 10:45 AM
What do you folks make of the Zespri talk of headwinds...seems a curious thing to suggest headwinds when the currency has dropped so much ? IIRC, Zespri's hedging policy runs to about 150 pages of gobbledygook, so expect them to be fully covered at much higher levels, possibly without some of the underlying USD sale prices locked in. Unfortunately it's a reality that most exporters are required to keep themselves well hedged, usually to protect the arses of the board's governance policy, secondly, banks also insist on there being a hedging policy to be adhered to, else no money honey. Thirdly, I have witnessed first-hand from in-market experience, the expectation of overseas buyers to 'have some part of the benefits of a lower local currency' In other words, we're going to lower our USD pricing sorry chaps - can't have you making too much money out of us eh? Perspective from a crusty old ex-treasurer (my treasury hedging policy ran to 1.5 pages):D

iceman
04-08-2015, 08:25 AM
I have been surprised how unloved SEK has been recently resulting in a weak SP. I am not unhappy about it as it has given me time to load up. They will be announcing their HY results later this month and I am expecting a ripper. As they have already announced to the market some time ago, their harvesting/packing was ahead of forecast. I believe it continued at pace throughout the harvesting season and is up at least 30-35% on last year. Of course they still are reliant on Zespri selling all the fruit but it is all looking reasonably promising.
I think there is little doubt that both revenue and profit will be up by quite a significant amount from last year and I also expect a healthy increase in dividends. I suggest PE will be in a single number when the HY results are out so for me, SEK is due for a major rerating by the market.

Hectorplains
04-08-2015, 08:18 PM
ANZ Commodity Prices recorded a monthly decline in horticultural prices of 1.1% - this was stated as been due to both kiwi and apple price declines. That said I like the look of both SEK and Scales...

Joshuatree
04-08-2015, 09:06 PM
Liquidity has been terrible most of the time.Two trades above 100,000 in the last year with most of the rest just a few thou. Hard to get in or out in any meaningful vol . Growers being shareholders too creates possible conflict?

iceman
04-08-2015, 09:35 PM
Growers being shareholders too creates possible conflict?

Yes possible JT but they are small holders so hopefully the security of supply they provide will outweigh such concerns. I think we will see SEK diversify and grow more into being a general produce company, rather than just Kiwifruit and Avocado. I look forward to the strong HY report this month and hope it will propel SEK onto a few more radar screens.

percy
05-08-2015, 06:03 AM
Liquidity has been terrible most of the time.Two trades above 100,000 in the last year with most of the rest just a few thou. Hard to get in or out in any meaningful vol . Growers being shareholders too creates possible conflict?

I often think one must approach illiquid stocks with the owner's eye.
A farmer,plumber,manudacturer,retailer has all his wealth tied up in his business for a great many years.Often millions of dollars.
So a stock such as SEK, if you buy with the owner's eye,making sure you have fully researched the company,and know how the Kiwi fruit industry is performing,and how SEK management are taking advantage of those opportunities,you will be less inclined to worry about selling.
Think Warren Buffett.He would not mind if the market was closed for 5 years.!
Growers being shareholders.Security of supply is essential.You will note how hard CVT have worked of have secure supply.SEK are looking forward by doing the same. Positive.

percy
05-08-2015, 04:48 PM
And so it came to pass. that the game changed with the Seeka announcement, late today,of an Australian acquisition of A$22mil.;Bunbartha Fruit Packers,whose lovely brand is "Austfresh".I googled Bunbartha Fruit Packers and it looks as though Seeka have brought a great business.

Joshuatree
05-08-2015, 06:00 PM
I often think one must approach illiquid stocks with the owner's eye.
A farmer,plumber,manudacturer,retailer has all his wealth tied up in his business for a great many years.Often millions of dollars.
So a stock such as SEK, if you buy with the owner's eye,making sure you have fully researched the company,and know how the Kiwi fruit industry is performing,and how SEK management are taking advantage of those opportunities,you will be less inclined to worry about selling.
Think Warren Buffett.He would not mind if the market was closed for 5 years.!
Growers being shareholders.Security of supply is essential.You will note how hard CVT have worked of have secure supply.SEK are looking forward by doing the same. Positive.

Good way to look at it.Still haven't bought any yet but the illiquidity may help me as the spread can be so wide that an entry can be got at a good discount at times. The announcement is good to see ;Seeka maybe seeing the Diversity SCL are creating for themselves.

iceman
05-08-2015, 06:21 PM
And so it came to pass. that the game changed with the Seeka announcement, late today,of an Australian acquisition of A$22mil.;Bunbartha Fruit Packers,whose lovely brand is "Austfresh".I googled Bunbartha Fruit Packers and it looks as though Seeka have brought a great business.

Yes looks like a great fit bought at a reasonable price. With the fantastic year SEK is having, I would not be surprised if we see further acquisitions to grow and diversify in a steady and well planned manner. The market will appreciate in the next few months what a great year SEK is having which will be confirmed by the upcoming HY announcement

gv1
05-08-2015, 07:05 PM
:DPhew!! Dipped my toe yesterday, only buyer! Biting my nails today until now!!! Aye! Aye!
Thanks Noodles and Percy again for reassurance.:t_up:

Gunny
06-08-2015, 04:08 AM
I got in at $3.20 at wee while back. Hopefully their purchase, the lower dollar and the end of month result will see me in the black again very soon on this one. Even tempted to increase holdings a bit before the big boys kick in.

Gunny

silverblizzard888
10-08-2015, 02:28 PM
Slowly moving up now woohoo!

iceman
10-08-2015, 06:14 PM
Slowly moving up now woohoo!

Very slowly indeed, but on low volume and large spread. Hopefully we will get the HY results next week and I suspect things may change when the market realises that SEK is trading on a current year PE of 8-10 (my expectation) with a good and steadily increasing flow of dividends.

Beagle
10-08-2015, 06:35 PM
Agri sector seems stuck on circa PE of 10 Iceman - Other examples SCL and PGW. Disease, pestilence, extreme climatic conditions...you name it...it seems to me the market whether we want it too or not, (and I do as I hold PGW and SCL) seems mostly disinterested in the PE going much over 10. Bloody cyclical's eh...seems the same applies to AIR:ohmy:

I'd love them all to re-rate to a PE of 13, I dream about it some nights LOL

DarkHorse
10-08-2015, 09:17 PM
Very true. Nevertheless we're well-placed. Negatives already priced in limits downside; nice divies and EPS growth will give us decent upside even without PE re-rate :)

iceman
11-08-2015, 04:39 AM
Agri sector seems stuck on circa PE of 10 Iceman - Other examples SCL and PGW. Disease, pestilence, extreme climatic conditions...you name it...it seems to me the market whether we want it too or not, (and I do as I hold PGW and SCL) seems mostly disinterested in the PE going much over 10. Bloody cyclical's eh...seems the same applies to AIR:ohmy:

I'd love them all to re-rate to a PE of 13, I dream about it some nights LOL

Yes I think you have a point Roger that the negativity about dairy in the media and political commentary (even the odd comment on ST) is affecting far more stocks than are being affected in reality. While dairy is currently going through a tough time, horticulture is booming. Silly to treat them both as "agri" stocks and lump them together.

I agree that good and reasonably valued stocks such as SCL and SEK may be stuck roundabout where they are now, while this sentiment continues.

However, I do not think the market has factored in a possible 60-70% EPS growth and a 20% dividend growth YoY for the current year, as I am doing for SEK. Add to that the new acquisition that is likely to add to EPS almost immediately and the upside from current SP is quite significant.

percy
11-08-2015, 06:18 AM
I think the whole point of us discussing shares on sharetrader is to help each other find anomalies,before the market wakes up to them.
Your research Iceman on SEK is a perfect case in point.
Share prices follow earnings....buy earnings growth [steve fleming]
Buying shares where the PE is less than half than eps growth rate is both very safe and extremely profitable.
So with possible 60% eps growth, SEK looks as though it will only be a matter of time before the market rerates it.But rerate it,it will.!!
I must admit I am "well positioned."

Jay
11-08-2015, 06:48 AM
If you could only buy one today would it be SEK or Scales

Thanks for the research both iceman and Percy

Looking at EPS growth and PE you would go for SEK would you not and it look s to be more in an uptrend than SCL at present

iceman
11-08-2015, 08:04 AM
If you could only buy one today would it be SEK or Scales

Thanks for the research both iceman and Percy

Looking at EPS growth and PE you would go for SEK would you not and it look s to be more in an uptrend than SCL at present

I think they are both good companies and good investments, operating in a very similar field being horticulture and logistics. Not sure which is more juicy !
I know Percy and others happily hold both. I have done my homework on SEK and feel very comfortable with it so have accumulated a few over the last year or so. It is now my 2nd biggest holding.

RTM
11-08-2015, 08:43 AM
Before I start...I hold both SCL and SEK and am considering buying a few more SEK. Accordingly I reviewed the SEEKA 2014 report yesterday. I was surprised how ignorant I was with respect to SEK. Below are a couple of questions that other investors may be able to help me with....as well as a few little facts I gleened.

1) SCL ($269Mil) is significantly bigger than SEK ($50Mil) Personally I would prefer the bigger company as it probably has more resilience.
2) SCL's owns a substantial portion of its orchards. SEK contracts growers. I like the concept of controlling the chain start to finish, although I am sure SEK has great relationships with its suppliers, many of whom are shareholders. Maybe this lack of landholding accounts for a lot of the difference in Market Cap ?
3)SEK has two major share holders, one Japanese (18%) and Te Awanui Huka Pak (16%). This seems OK. Great to see our local Maori folk with a substantial share holding in a developing NZ company. Nice to see some of that treaty money well invested. And the Japanese holder is linked to marketing the product in Japan...a good fit. Not sure re SCL
4)There is a scheme to incentivise suppliers to stay with SEEKA in the form of issuing shares.
In 2014 this diluted the share total by 4%
5) There is a scheme to incentivise employees.
In 2014 this diluted the share total by nearly 3%
So between 4) and 5) the value of my shares was diluted by ~7%
This doesn't seem great, I am not sure how this would compare with other companies.

My questions are....where do these shares come from ? Are they simply new shares created for this purpose ? On page 25 of the report....item c...there is a note with respect to the Employee Share Scheme...and above that a line in the table:
Held by SEEKA Employee Share Plan Trustees 693,442 (2014 shares) etc.
Does this line mean that the Employee Incentive Shares are already in the overall count...and are therefore not dilutive when issues to the employees ? However...give that they issued 429.6K, they would need to top this up again for the following year ? Can anyone help my understanding on this. As you can probably see...my career was not in finance !
Thanks in advance for any help.
RTM

silverblizzard888
11-08-2015, 11:23 AM
Article about Seeka if anyones interested "Seeka hits target in Australia"

http://agrihq.co.nz/article/seeka-hits-target-in-australia?p=1

percy
11-08-2015, 11:26 AM
Article about Seeka if anyones interested "Seeka hits target in Australia"

http://agrihq.co.nz/article/seeka-hits-target-in-australia?p=1

Thanks for the link.
A very interesting article.

RTM
11-08-2015, 11:29 AM
Article about Seeka if anyones interested "Seeka hits target in Australia"

http://agrihq.co.nz/article/seeka-hits-target-in-australia?p=1

Yes, interested. Appreciate you posting the link SB.

Jay
11-08-2015, 12:37 PM
Yes thanks sb.
I have a cousin living in Shepparton, he did mention a while ago that some or a lot (cannot quite remember now) of their orchards were starting to disappear or will be disappearing he thought - supplies the local SPC cannery.
So it look like some is has/ is being converted to Kiwifruit.

RTM re point 1 - hopefully they will grow to a bigger company so a little more riskier than Scales perhaps

iceman
12-08-2015, 05:06 AM
Before I start...I hold both SCL and SEK and am considering buying a few more SEK. Accordingly I reviewed the SEEKA 2014 report yesterday. I was surprised how ignorant I was with respect to SEK. Below are a couple of questions that other investors may be able to help me with....as well as a few little facts I gleened.

1) SCL ($269Mil) is significantly bigger than SEK ($50Mil) Personally I would prefer the bigger company as it probably has more resilience.
2) SCL's owns a substantial portion of its orchards. SEK contracts growers. I like the concept of controlling the chain start to finish, although I am sure SEK has great relationships with its suppliers, many of whom are shareholders. Maybe this lack of landholding accounts for a lot of the difference in Market Cap ?
3)SEK has two major share holders, one Japanese (18%) and Te Awanui Huka Pak (16%). This seems OK. Great to see our local Maori folk with a substantial share holding in a developing NZ company. Nice to see some of that treaty money well invested. And the Japanese holder is linked to marketing the product in Japan...a good fit. Not sure re SCL
4)There is a scheme to incentivise suppliers to stay with SEEKA in the form of issuing shares.
In 2014 this diluted the share total by 4%
5) There is a scheme to incentivise employees.
In 2014 this diluted the share total by nearly 3%
So between 4) and 5) the value of my shares was diluted by ~7%
This doesn't seem great, I am not sure how this would compare with other companies.

My questions are....where do these shares come from ? Are they simply new shares created for this purpose ? On page 25 of the report....item c...there is a note with respect to the Employee Share Scheme...and above that a line in the table:
Held by SEEKA Employee Share Plan Trustees 693,442 (2014 shares) etc.
Does this line mean that the Employee Incentive Shares are already in the overall count...and are therefore not dilutive when issues to the employees ? However...give that they issued 429.6K, they would need to top this up again for the following year ? Can anyone help my understanding on this. As you can probably see...my career was not in finance !
Thanks in advance for any help.
RTM

Hi RTM,
I'll have a go at answering some of the issues you've raised.

Yes SEK is a much smaller market cap than SCL. But SEK intends to grow quite quickly. This is both an opportunity and a risk for us investors. My guess is we will see a SEK with 3-4x current cap value in 4-5 years time !!!!

The grower share scheme is a 3 year scheme, with 2016 being the last. My understanding is that it was implemented to rebuild long term relationships after the disastrous PSA hit.
I also believe SEK realises they need to increase volumes quickly to justify building more coldstorage facilities. This is one way of doing that and I suspect we will see that happening soon. After all, coldstorage, load out and general handling is where SEK make a large part of their money.
The share scheme is tax deductible from the post harvest EBIDTA but of course is a non cash deduction as its paid for in NEW shares.
I think this scheme is a win win for growers and SH alike.

SEK does have a mix of their own operated orchards (long term leased land though) and grower contractors.
It should be noted they just bought 505 Ha of land in Victoria of which 240 Ha are planted and with full water rights.

I will not attempt to answer re details of the employee scheme. Don' t remember the detail at the top of my head and am in very slow internet connection so can't look for it. But I am relaxed about that. SEK has been building its operational management systems ahead of the anticipated volume increases, that are happening already this year. Prudent stuff and we want good people in those positions, with a bit of skin in the game.

RTM
12-08-2015, 08:16 AM
Thanks Iceman, pleased to hear that the Growers Scheme is just 3 years....as 7% total dilution of my shares seems pretty high.

Agree that employees need to be appropriately remunerated. Per the report they have 53 employees earning more than $100K. Not sure of total number of employees. On top of this there does seem to be a fairly generous share entitlement (3% of the total shares is not insignificant) So I hope they are all working at the top of their ability to enhance the value of "our" shares !
Note: I have not been able to benchmark this at all against what other companies are doing. It may be quite a normal number. It just "feels" generous !


Hi RTM,
I'll have a go at answering some of the issues you've raised.

Yes SEK is a much smaller market cap than SCL. But SEK intends to grow quite quickly. This is both an opportunity and a risk for us investors. My guess is we will see a SEK with 3-4x current cap value in 4-5 years time !!!!

The grower share scheme is a 3 year scheme, with 2016 being the last. My understanding is that it was implemented to rebuild long term relationships after the disastrous PSA hit.
I also believe SEK realises they need to increase volumes quickly to justify building more coldstorage facilities. This is one way of doing that and I suspect we will see that happening soon. After all, coldstorage, load out and general handling is where SEK make a large part of their money.
The share scheme is tax deductible from the post harvest EBIDTA but of course is a non cash deduction as its paid for in NEW shares.
I think this scheme is a win win for growers and SH alike.

SEK does have a mix of their own operated orchards (long term leased land though) and grower contractors.
It should be noted they just bought 505 Ha of land in Victoria of which 240 Ha are planted and with full water rights.

I will not attempt to answer re details of the employee scheme. Don' t remember the detail at the top of my head and am in very slow internet connection so can't look for it. But I am relaxed about that. SEK has been building its operational management systems ahead of the anticipated volume increases, that are happening already this year. Prudent stuff and we want good people in those positions, with a bit of skin in the game.

percy
13-08-2015, 06:07 PM
Its been really illiquid for many years which can be a prob getting in or out in any but tiny volumes.. Only two trades over 50,000 in 2 years!! .SEK in a sweet spot atm but no change in liquidity. Tradeswell under NTA too although i haven't checked lately.

Were you the buyer of the 608,148 SEK shares traded off market today?

Joshuatree
13-08-2015, 06:19 PM
Saw that ,biggest vol in a longlong time. S/P sceamed thru both M/As too like a cleaver thru a lambington..

iceman
14-08-2015, 07:34 PM
Great to see Seeka's Banana supplier Sumifru take a SEK stake and become the 3rd biggest SH. A vote of confidence and supportive of SEK becoming a diversified produce supplier. Bring on the HY announcement next week and will be watching with interest whether we get any comments on profit projections for the FY. Normally they provide that in October but this year is probably outstanding so far so one is allowed some optimism !

silverblizzard888
16-08-2015, 11:21 AM
Just the speak of currency helping exporters puts a bit of joy in your belly.

"It's wonderful news for exporters, particularly those selling wine, apples, kiwifruit, beef, lamb and holidays at still-high prices. These farmers and moteliers can thank their neighbours on dairy farms."

SEK, SCL and THL really gonna pocket the money this time round!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11497659

silverblizzard888
17-08-2015, 11:32 AM
Who reckons we hit $5 a share? If NPAT is better than 5 million its quite possible on a PE 15, definitely crossing the fingers and waiting till next week for the surprise!

iceman
18-08-2015, 05:20 AM
Who reckons we hit $5 a share? If NPAT is better than 5 million its quite possible on a PE 15, definitely crossing the fingers and waiting till next week for the surprise!

I'm expecting the HY report this week, Wednesday or Thursday. Hope I'm right.

silverblizzard888
19-08-2015, 09:43 AM
HY report out today! https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/218819.pdf
First 6 months profit more than whole of last years already.

9 cent dividend too

silverblizzard888
19-08-2015, 09:52 AM
I'm expecting the HY report this week, Wednesday or Thursday. Hope I'm right.

It seems you were very right!

benjitara
19-08-2015, 10:01 AM
HY report out today! https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/218819.pdf
First 6 months profit more than whole of last years already.

9 cent dividend too

Yes a good result although I see in their full year projections that full year Nprofit is around the 4.5mil which might subdue a few feelings regarding the future. Australian acquisition should help out a little but that's for the next 18-24 months...
Unfortunately I sold out of this stock at 90 cents! Will get in again but I'm looking for the sp to depreciate a little

bull....
19-08-2015, 10:31 AM
I have recently joined the register along with a company out of Singapore I see and expect big things going forward

silverblizzard888
19-08-2015, 12:10 PM
Looks like theres barely any stock left on the buy side right now

gv1
19-08-2015, 12:11 PM
Yeah, have been looking to buy nothing much to buy. Anyone selling from here!

silverblizzard888
19-08-2015, 12:48 PM
Looks like we also get a presentation too

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SEK/announcements/268691

Brain
19-08-2015, 01:12 PM
I don't understand how the forecast annual NPAT is only 4.5 M when they have already achieved 3.7M for the half year. They are predicting a very very uneventful second half

iceman
19-08-2015, 01:24 PM
A few comments in no particular order, after the first glance at the announcements :

A large revenue increase and good growth across most sectors of the business. EPS in the 6 months already above FY14. But outlook indicates 2nd half will not be as outstanding and will not deliver half of annual profits like previous years. But indications are FY EPS of 30c or thereabouts. This is a good 30-40% increase, but less than I expected. Need to study report better to try to understand why but probably explainable by lots of the profit (unusually high share) so far being from post harvest operations that obviously don’t happen in the 2nd half.

An EBIDTA increase of 97% YoY. Spectacular.
Need to invest in coldstorage and not so hidden criticism of Zespri and the industry not collaborating on offshore arrangements, related to that. This is urgent as further growth will be restricted without it. The question will be whether SEK need to fund it or will we have landlords building facilities for us to lease. This issue could affect future dividends. I still expect a final divie of fully imputed 10c though, supported by great cashflow in the HY. But I would like management to attend to this with urgency and come to us for cash if need be.

SEK has run slim margins on coldstorage and loadouts, as well as the grower share scheme, to assist growers rebuilding after the PSA disaster. Long term, I think this will be of huge benefit to SEK and the growers

A gain from impairments and actual insurance payout from the Oakside fire, more than covering the grower scheme this period. More gain on insurance payout indicated for the 2nd half.

The Glassfields acquisition is not delivering to expectations these 6 months. That is disappointing. Bananas and avocado sales in NZ very competitive and pressure on prices. Reassuring that Philippines banana supplier Sumifru has taken a big holding in SEK and is a vote of confidence in the future of this business.

The fact that SEK has provided FY outlook now rather than the normal October announcement, tells me they are extremely confident of achieving what they are saying. As far as I am concerned, we only have upsides from her.

A very happy holder.

iceman
19-08-2015, 01:46 PM
Who reckons we hit $5 a share? If NPAT is better than 5 million its quite possible on a PE 15, definitely crossing the fingers and waiting till next week for the surprise!

I do but I'll give it 12 months

bull....
19-08-2015, 02:04 PM
ill give some thoughts next week, bit busy with earnings season at da moment here and aus

silverblizzard888
19-08-2015, 02:09 PM
I do but I'll give it 12 months

Its a shame I was expecting around $5 million, but round 4.4 still isn't bad either, still great growth.

Beagle
19-08-2015, 02:45 PM
Good result and congrats to holders and thanks to Iceman for his detailed comments on SEK.
I'm watching but I remain cautious.

I do the books for a small Kiwifruit operation and they had a ripper year with very strong profit growth.

Fact is it was a brilliant season for growing and prices were good but seasonal returns are variable and I remain comfortable using my long term average yardstick of a PE of 10 to value agri stocks for reasons of seasonal variability in crop size, pricing, disease, pestilence, drought e.t.c. e.t.c I have used this PE of 10 for years and swear by it as a general yardstick. Interesting to note both SCL and PGW are currently trading on a PE of very close to 10.

Anyway...not looking to rain on anyone's parade, just thought I'd share my 2 cents from the accountants coal face on what a private operator achieved for the year and my personal PE yardstick for agri stocks.
Disc: Hold PGW and SCL.

sb9
19-08-2015, 02:48 PM
I like this stock for their growth and future earning potential.

However from a trading point of view liquidity is the biggest concern for me and I don't like illiquid stocks.

Good luck to those that are already in.

Disc: Do not hold.

iceman
19-08-2015, 03:07 PM
Fair enough comments Roger. I certainly agree we need to be careful in this industry with companies such as SEK & SCL as they are always at great risk and reward from natural events. Just like all primary industries.

But I do not think it is correct to compare SEK to a smallish individual Kiwifruit orchardist. SEK are not a Kiwifruit grower except to a small degree. They got close to 70% of their EBIDTA this HY from post harvest operations. They make their money from infrastructure around the industry and marketing the produce (whats not done by Zespri).
SEK has also been at the forefront of maintaining pricing/profits for growers to help them recover from PSA.
I think it is great that despite that, both growers and SEK are having a good year.

iceman
19-08-2015, 03:10 PM
I like this stock for their growth and future earning potential.

However from a trading point of view liquidity is the biggest concern for me and I don't like illiquid stocks.

Good luck to those that are already in.

Disc: Do not hold.

And that I agree with. It is a company that is entering a profitable growth period, quite a substantial growth I believe. Liquidity of stock will be an issue. I would like them to think about funding new coldstorage by new share issues, not bank debt, to increase liquidity

Beagle
19-08-2015, 03:22 PM
Fair enough comments Roger. I certainly agree we need to be careful in this industry with companies such as SEK & SCL as they are always at great risk and reward from natural events. Just like all primary industries.

But I do not think it is correct to compare SEK to a smallish individual Kiwifruit orchardist. SEK are not a Kiwifruit grower except to a small degree. They got close to 70% of their EBIDTA this HY from post harvest operations. They make their money from infrastructure around the industry and marketing the produce (whats not done by Zespri).
SEK has also been at the forefront of maintaining pricing/profits for growers to help them recover from PSA.
I think it is great that despite that, both growers and SEK are having a good year.

Fair enough Iceman. To be fair mate all I was trying to say by posting that illustration is that his volumes were very, very good this year so that growth if indicative of other growers harvest, would have been very helpful to SEK's downstream operations. All good and I am sure holders will benefit from the tremendous growth that's forecast for this industry in the years ahead :)
The lack of liquidity is a concern for me so it doesn't really fit my personal investment profile.

percy
19-08-2015, 03:34 PM
I don't have an issue with liquidity.In fact it appears to have been good recently.
SEK, along with all people in the Kiwifruit industry are recovering very strongly from PSA.
31% increase in post harvest kiwifruit volumes confirms this.
Not too many companies I am invested in are expecting their NPAT to be up 30% to 40% on their 2014 result.
The strike price for the DRP is a good discount to the share price. Thank you SEK...
The Bunbartha acquisition has been well thought out, and offers excellent opportunities.
Bannana supplier Sumifru becoming the third largest shareholder is confirmation they are supportive of SEK's management. Positive. .

BobbyMorocco
21-08-2015, 03:18 PM
The strike price for the DRP is a good discount to the share price. Thank you SEK...


How does one sign up for the Dividend Reinvestment Plan?

I went to the investor section of the Seeka website and clicked on what appeared to be the necessary links to sign up for participation and I got error messages, saying the page cannot be viewed due to system error. So I emailed Seeka as the message told me to do so and haven't heard anything back.

Anyone have any thoughts?

percy
21-08-2015, 04:00 PM
I think you do it via the share registry.
In Seeka's case it is Link Market Services.Google them for contact details.
I am sorry I can't remember how I did it.

iceman
21-08-2015, 08:38 PM
How does one sign up for the Dividend Reinvestment Plan?

I went to the investor section of the Seeka website and clicked on what appeared to be the necessary links to sign up for participation and I got error messages, saying the page cannot be viewed due to system error. So I emailed Seeka as the message told me to do so and haven't heard anything back.

Anyone have any thoughts?

As Percy said, you do it through Link Marketservices.
Here is a link https://investorcentre.linkmarketservices.co.nz/Login/Login where you can set up an account (very simple) for all your Link registered holdings or view a single holding. This is the best option.

Alternatively here is a link http://www.linkmarketservices.co.nz/InvestorServices/Forms.html to forms where you should be able to find a form for DRPs.

SEK´s DRP is quite well discounted so a very good option for holders in my opinion.

iceman
05-11-2015, 11:34 AM
I went to the SEK stakeholderrs meeting a couple of weeks ago and also visited a couple of orchards the next day.
For those interested, below are a few notes that I made:

Financial forecasting is fraught due to the ongoing issues and fruit damage related to the fire at Oakside in March. They believe they have very good statistical evidence pointing at the wooden bins used as having been permanently affected with the fire, despite being cleaned to standards they believed were adequate. The fruit loss issue has been that the fruit stored in these bins ripened much faster than industry average. They responded by priority shipping this fruit but due to quantities this lead to delays and extra costs at other packhouses and coolstorages.

The new lower FY15 forecast due to fruit damage has lowered the bottom end of the forecast range which now sits at 10-40% on FY14. They believe that the lower end would cover a worst case scenario, meaning no or little insurance payout and all possible extra costs accounted for. They are not in a position to estimate insurance payouts but are claiming under 3 different policies (material damage, marine cargo, business interruption) and have been told by their insurance advisors that they have a robust case and they say they have “lots of confidence”. Outcome should be known by Christmas.

I also get a feeling there is a potential to receive a further insurance payment from the fire itself. The remaining rebuild at Oakfield is estimate to cost $1.0-1.5M, so possibility exists that insurance payout may exceed that.

The standout in this year’s harvest has been the large increase in yields of Haywards. Over last 5-7 years, yields have been plus minus 8000 trays per hectare. This year it was 11720. I spoke to a few farmers at the meeting and it appears nobody is really 100% sure why they got this great yield and if it will continue at these levels.

$17m approved in CAPEX to date for new cool storage, packaging facilities, new HQ and orchards. This is done in preparation for exceeding 30M trays of fruit in 2016-2017. Funded by bank debt.

Some of the goals outlined are:
# Any investment needs to earn cost of capital
# Continue to grow volumes of Gold. They packed 1.9M trays of Gold in 2014 but 4.4M in 2015, of which they harvested 1.3M from their own orchards. As G3 is limited to 4000 Hectares by Zespri, SEK need to get more G3 growers to supply them, if they want to increase G3 volumes.
# Extend geographical area and produce spread. Australia “first target”. Interesting comment.

They had quite extensive comments on the Bunbartha acquisition. SEK now has 224HA in production in Australia and 123HA more that can be developed. Have good water rights but are on the hunt for even more to counter the possible El Nino effects expected this summer.
As a result of this acquisition, Australian sales will rise from $20M to $40M. This merger sounds very complimentary as it will give SEK a wider range of fruit to supply to Coles and Woolworths all year round. Bunbartha expertise is mainly in pears, nashi and apricots where SEK can learn but on the other hand SEK can provide expertise on Kiwifruit.
An interesting recent addition to the Australian business is pollen exports to Japan. This is small but high margin business which will be interesting to see how devlops
They are expecting a breakeven for the Australian business this year but should start contributing at least $3.5 – 4.0 m next year.

TPPA is marginally positive but not a game changer for them.

The orchard manager that showed me around was very confident that they are in for another bumper season.
Despite the setback with the above average fruit damage, which hopefully will be well covered by insurance, I feel that SEK is a good growth and yield stock going forward.

Jay
05-11-2015, 12:05 PM
Thanks Iceman for a very good summary. Appreciated

Joshuatree
05-11-2015, 12:27 PM
Yes thanks Iceman. SEK still on my watch list (and a pick in the share trader comp for me). Are you a grower . supplier to SEK? If so a win /win i guess. Bunbartha an int acquisition reducing risk with diversity and crop region hopefully.

iceman
05-11-2015, 12:43 PM
Yes thanks Iceman. SEK still on my watch list (and a pick in the share trader comp for me). Are you a grower . supplier to SEK? If so a win /win i guess. Bunbartha an int acquisition reducing risk with diversity and crop region hopefully.

No JT, just a heavily invested SH :-)

bull....
05-11-2015, 03:49 PM
went to meeting as well, interested in there growth strategy so had a chat with CEO after meeting. Good plan going forward with Bunbartha can sell excess fruit back into NZ when they develop the additional hectares, looking to buy more land as well as water, can sell more fruit into Taiwan, europe with aus purchase as Bunbartha already supplies these.
my concerns were how long it going to take to do this? are you going to do a cash issue so you can speed all this up? lack of storage facilities? systems need improving, don't you want to investigate why the yield was so high?

overrule liked what I see have a small holding may get more depending on there progress so will watch with interest

iceman
06-11-2015, 06:45 AM
Hi bull. Next time we should catch up :-) Good comments thank you.
I asked similar questions to you after the meeting. They have a BIG growth strategy that needs to be watched. CEO told me they already have a credit line of up to $120M. So they can tap the banks quickly for any acquisitions and I don't expect a cash call to SH.

I also had concerns about lack of storage facilities and asked questions about it after the meeting. My reading from it, and I may be completely wrong, is that they do not intend to grow much beyond 30M trays of fruit in NZ. Any growth beyond that will come outside of NZ with Australia being the first and obvious choice. Also, Australia is the only PSA free (long may it continue) Kiwifruit growing country in the World. This makes the pollen business exports really interesting and the potential opportunities quite big.

I think we will see Seeka growing very quickly in size in the next 2-3 years. I expect double market cap by end of 2018 and base my investment on that. We will also receive 18-20c of dividends per year as well in my view. I will be watching the execution of their strategy very carefully. But I regard SEK as both a growth and dividend investment.

bull....
06-11-2015, 07:16 AM
Hi bull. Next time we should catch up :-) Good comments thank you.
I asked similar questions to you after the meeting. They have a BIG growth strategy that needs to be watched. CEO told me they already have a credit line of up to $120M. So they can tap the banks quickly for any acquisitions and I don't expect a cash call to SH.

I also had concerns about lack of storage facilities and asked questions about it after the meeting. My reading from it, and I may be completely wrong, is that they do not intend to grow much beyond 30M trays of fruit in NZ. Any growth beyond that will come outside of NZ with Australia being the first and obvious choice. Also, Australia is the only PSA free (long may it continue) Kiwifruit growing country in the World. This makes the pollen business exports really interesting and the potential opportunities quite big.

I think we will see Seeka growing very quickly in size in the next 2-3 years. I expect double market cap by end of 2018 and base my investment on that. We will also receive 18-20c of dividends per year as well in my view. I will be watching the execution of their strategy very carefully. But I regard SEK as both a growth and dividend investment.

storage is a big issue for all local packhouses at the moment I believe, if im correct it could get worse as a lot of post psa harvest is coming on next few yrs so volumes will be well up.
agree aus offers huge potential if execution is well done although needs quite a bit of investment to bring up to scratch also would be hoping the extra hectares they have there are utilised quickly for future growth.
yes ceo say not really interested in cash issue so therefore they will need to grow the banburtha massively to meet there 200m market cap objective or perhaps look for more bolt on acquisitions in aus.
I also own costa group in aus a similar company but different products.
yes I will look you up next meeting

iceman
06-11-2015, 09:57 AM
storage is a big issue for all local packhouses at the moment I believe, if im correct it could get worse as a lot of post psa harvest is coming on next few yrs so volumes will be well up.
agree aus offers huge potential if execution is well done although needs quite a bit of investment to bring up to scratch also would be hoping the extra hectares they have there are utilised quickly for future growth.
yes ceo say not really interested in cash issue so therefore they will need to grow the banburtha massively to meet there 200m market cap objective or perhaps look for more bolt on acquisitions in aus.
I also own costa group in aus a similar company but different products.
yes I will look you up next meeting

The lack of storage may very possibly lead to improved returns !!

iceman
16-12-2015, 08:49 PM
I have been expecting an announcement from SEK before Christmas to update us on the insurance claim negotiations for the fire related fruit loss this year. In the absence of such an announcement, one has to assume the negotiations are taking longer than expected and are probably quite complicated. I do hear though, that parts of it has been settled and growers taken care of. If true, that is good news.
But I do fear if delays continue or negative outcomes from the insurance negotiations are the result, that we may have significant negative effect on cashflow for 2015 and possibly final dividends due in March 2016 ?

But looking forward, it looks like the orchards are looking very good and we can expect another bumper season. We should also by now be seeing positive contributions from Australia.

So looking ahead I believe SEK is doing well and I expect a very good 2016.

Discl: Reduced my holding a little in the last couple of weeks due to insurance unknowns but still 2nd biggest in my NZX portfolio

BIRMANBOY
17-12-2015, 07:13 AM
So you'll be getting a few cases of KWF over the holidays to support any weakness iceman:) If they bring back the red variety I'll be in too. It only appears occasionally...must all be exported. My favourite variety. Vouchers for all shareholders should be high on the list for the next AGM.
I have been expecting an announcement from SEK before Christmas to update us on the insurance claim negotiations for the fire related fruit loss this year. In the absence of such an announcement, one has to assume the negotiations are taking longer than expected and are probably quite complicated. I do hear though, that parts of it has been settled and growers taken care of. If true, that is good news.
But I do fear if delays continue or negative outcomes from the insurance negotiations are the result, that we may have significant negative effect on cashflow for 2015 and possibly final dividends due in March 2016 ?

But looking forward, it looks like the orchards are looking very good and we can expect another bumper season. We should also by now be seeing positive contributions from Australia.

So looking ahead I believe SEK is doing well and I expect a very good 2016.

Discl: Reduced my holding a little in the last couple of weeks due to insurance unknowns but still 2nd biggest in my NZX portfolio

Jay
03-02-2016, 01:16 PM
In a mostly down day SEK up 20cents as at time of writing - make up for some "losses" on Air NZ!
You will be doing well there BB

BIRMANBOY
03-02-2016, 04:10 PM
As they say on TV....see..no mould...just spray ....and walk away...I walk away. Yes hold and forget 13% gross yield on my dividends now. Just wish I had more.... Doesn't take much to move SP though so 20cents has come and gone a few times. SP go up and down but dividends will pay for your retirement.
In a mostly down day SEK up 20cents as at time of writing - make up for some "losses" on Air NZ!
You will be doing well there BB

bull....
05-02-2016, 05:10 AM
expecting a good result

iceman
05-02-2016, 08:23 AM
I think they clearly had a good operational result but at the moment the settlement of the insurance claim on the large fruit loss will have quite a significant bearing on the results. So one hopes for a favourable outcome

LAC
26-02-2016, 05:22 PM
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SEK/announcements/278444

Great result for Seeka:)

bull....
27-02-2016, 06:30 AM
nice result

iceman
27-02-2016, 07:41 AM
Yes it is a good result from an extremely challenging year for SEK management with the fire at Oakside and enormous effort spent on insurance claims.
With that now largely out of the way we can look forward to a more normal year ahead. 2016 should see a large growth in revenue and profit with Seeka Australia coming on line with estimated revenue of $17m and EBIDTA of $ 3.2 - 4.0M instead of the over $1m loss contributed in 2015 (due to timing of purchase).
This will easily offset the increase in interest expenses as a result of the new loans (only 3.95% interest rate) to fund the purchase of that business.

An interesting statement in the commentary is their clear aspiration to increase market cap to $200m, which is more than triple current market cap. A lofty goal which shows management's great optimism for the business.

I would not be surprised to see a doubling of EPS and a healthy increase in dividend in 2016, if we have a good crop and no unforeseen negative issues.
Happy holder

percy
27-02-2016, 09:46 AM
Yes it is a good result from an extremely challenging year for SEK management with the fire at Oakside and enormous effort spent on insurance claims.
With that now largely out of the way we can look forward to a more normal year ahead. 2016 should see a large growth in revenue and profit with Seeka Australia coming on line with estimated revenue of $17m and EBIDTA of $ 3.2 - 4.0M instead of the over $1m loss contributed in 2015 (due to timing of purchase).
This will easily offset the increase in interest expenses as a result of the new loans (only 3.95% interest rate) to fund the purchase of that business.

An interesting statement in the commentary is their clear aspiration to increase market cap to $200m, which is more than triple current market cap. A lofty goal which shows management's great optimism for the business.

I would not be surprised to see a doubling of EPS and a healthy increase in dividend in 2016, if we have a good crop and no unforeseen negative issues.
Happy holder

The blue skies are looking even bluer with PSA,and fire issues now behind SEK.
They got through them well.Must be good management/directors.
Plenty of excellent growth opportunities.

percy
02-03-2016, 08:36 PM
Thank you Noodles for your calculations,and projections,.
I thought the growth prospects were good when I read the report,but your projections have me really excited.
The eps growth from 46 cents per share, to 62 cents per share is a massive 34.78%.
The forward PE of 6 looks out of place with such a high growth rate.Most probably a PE of 12 would still be modest.[depending on outlook]
So eps of 62 cents x PE 12 and well will have a share price of $7.44,which would be a gain of 98.4% on today's sp of $3.75.
And in the meantime we get the huge dividend yield.!!

iceman
03-03-2016, 06:44 AM
Thanks noodles for your great work and sharing.
My numbers are very similar to yours so I have little to add to them except to say that I prefer to use 10% increase in "all other operations", rather than your 5%. It doesn't make much difference to the results though.

SEK has been a very difficult one to value due to their extraordinary year in 2015 with the large building fire in packing season and the resulting fruit loss due to the contaminated bins.
The contamination issue has now been fixed with a huge investment in new generation plastic bins which will also see increased operational efficiencies.
Due to these fire related issues and insurance claims, the 2015 accounts do not really show what a good operational year it would have been without it.

SEK has invested significantly in increased handling and storage capabilities and intends to spend a further $13m this year. It is paramount that this spending will be quickly earnings positive as they have stated will be their aim.
The future volume growth will be coming largely from the Gold variety which is harvested right in the middle of the normal season so this is the reason for the need for increased capacity to deal with the pressures to pack all fruit classes at the same time.

Australia, as you pointed out, is forecast to contribute significantly in 2016 so we will need to watch for progress updates on the integration and operational efficiency improvements there. Half of the fruit in Australia is currently being sold direct to supermarkets with better net returns than other sales. I hope SEK can now use its leverage as the dominant Australasian Kiwifruit (and now more other fruit) ?grower/packer/marketer, to gain more direct supermarket access both in Australia and NZ for a wide variety of fruit.

I do not think we will see the huge increase in dividends you forecast. There is little doubt in my mind that the divie increase will be steady and significant but I would like to see them use a larger proportion of the forecasted profit to reduce debt quicker.
I also believe there is a high chance of SEK using some of that cash to make further strategic acquisitions.

It is also important to note that the grower loyalty program is now entering its final year. Assuming SEK can retain most of the growers (and now SH) in 2017 and beyond, the approx $2.5m annual cost of the grower scheme will be removed.

SEK has great growth potential and a great ability to pay out significant dividends.

Discl. SEK is my biggest holding

noodles
03-03-2016, 07:21 AM
I do not think we will see the huge increase in dividends you forecast. There is little doubt in my mind that the divie increase will be steady and significant but I would like to see them use a larger proportion of the forecasted profit to reduce debt quicker.

Yes, I think you are probably right about dividends. Here is their policy:
"Seeka’s intention is to declare dividends each financial year. The annual dividend paymentwill not exceed 75% of operating cashflow net of maintenance capital investment andcontracted debt reduction."

Given the extra capital spend, perhaps the dividend will only increase 10-20%.

I have updated the table in my original post to reflect dividend and a couple of minor mistakes. I've also added the FY15 actual column
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8494-Seeka&p=609948&viewfull=1#post609948

percy
03-03-2016, 07:32 AM
Yes, I think you are probably right about dividends. Here is their policy:
"Seeka’s intention is to declare dividends each financial year. The annual dividend paymentwill not exceed 75% of operating cashflow net of maintenance capital investment andcontracted debt reduction."

Given the extra capital spend, perhaps the dividend will only increase 10-20%.

My own view is I don't mind accepting a small/modest dividend from a company, if they are putting the funds/capital to better use they I can.
High growth companies need capital.
SEK is a high growth company with plenty of growth avenues both here and Australia.
So their dividend policy makes good sense to me.

LAC
03-03-2016, 08:01 AM
Thanks for the projections Noddles, much appreciated.
Not all claims have been finalized by year end - will there be any costs that would carry fwd to 2016 that we should consider?
Smaller divies in favor of acquisitions would be great but I think they might use it towards debt deduction IMO.

iceman
03-03-2016, 08:08 AM
Thanks for the projections Noddles, much appreciated.
Not all claims have been finalized by year end - will there be any costs that would carry fwd to 2016 that we should consider?
Smaller divies in favor of acquisitions would be great but I think they might use it towards debt deduction IMO.

I don't think we will see any significant costs carried forward, other than no doubt some legal and consultancy costs. In fact SEK protected their growers in 2015 by paying them $4m which I note noodles has correctly accounted for in the valuation/estimation process. Should SEK receive further insurance payouts for the outstanding claims, my understanding is that the first $4.5m would go to SEK and the rest if any to the grower pool.
But of course there is also the possibility of no further insurance payouts !

Fisherking
03-03-2016, 06:04 PM
I'm a happy holder and will look to accumulate given the SP weakness we've seen recently.
The only comment I have regarding your analysis is that SEK are more succeptable to 'acts of god' than some other stocks which will inevitably have some impact on SP.

From what i can see the acquisitions they've made to date have been pretty astute.

iceman
03-03-2016, 08:29 PM
So true Fisherking about an "act of God"event. Any company operating in a primary industry (SEK, CVT, SCL, SAN, PGW for example) is very much reliant on Mother Nature being cooperative. But then again, so are our electricity generators with rain fall, tourism (THL,AIA,AIR) with no volcanoes blowing up, Air NZ with no volcanoes/viruses/terrorist attacks.
Most companies face their own risks, real or perceived.

One thing I do like about SEK, is that they worked their way very quickly and very successfully out of an "act of God" situation with the PSA. Been there, done that and hopefully have learned a lot and I think all their current business strategy/diversification shows they learnt from it.

LAC
10-03-2016, 07:02 PM
Hopefully it gets sorted sooner rather than later. Isnt a large export for Sek but last thing they would want is fruit sitting around.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11603468

Cricketfan
10-03-2016, 08:19 PM
Hopefully it gets sorted sooner rather than later. Isnt a large export for Sek but last thing they would want is fruit sitting around.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11603468

Those look cool, I've never seen them before! Do they sell them here??

noodles
10-03-2016, 09:24 PM
Those look cool, I've never seen them before! Do they sell them here??
I've seen them in Farro. I'm not a fan.

LAC
25-03-2016, 11:23 AM
Will anyone on ST be attending the SEK meeting 27/04/2016?

iceman
28-03-2016, 09:12 AM
Will anyone on ST be attending the SEK meeting 27/04/2016?

I will be very interested in post-meeting feedback if anyone goes. Harvesting has started and my understanding is that the fruit maturity is a little behind expectations, a week or two late. Would be good to get progress info from the meeting

bull....
29-03-2016, 08:08 AM
Will anyone on ST be attending the SEK meeting 27/04/2016?

unfortunately no for me this time as have sold out around 3.75 - 80 during the last mth added to my costa holding in aus saw quicker return which has eventuated will buy back in if funds become available though

IAK
13-04-2016, 03:25 PM
Looks like Seeka is on the same projection as Scales. Not much on the sell side.

Disc. Holding.

sb9
13-04-2016, 03:33 PM
Looks like Seeka is on the same projection as Scales. Not much on the sell side.

Disc. Holding.

Yeah good prospects, pity about the stock liquidity though.

IAK
13-04-2016, 05:21 PM
Article on the health benefits of kiwi fruit, the next Manuka honey?http://nzh.tw/11621934

Lewylewylewy
13-04-2016, 08:35 PM
I like SEK a lot. Like SCL, but the product is more prone to damage. Still, I think they have a better moat and NTA is higher, which is a big deal for me. SCL probably has more growth due to its lack of maturity on the NZX and liquidity + excitement.

I tried to buy in a while ago, but the deal never went through and I ended up buying something else.

Had a friend do some work for SEK, he thinks they're a smart bunch running a solid company.

Hectorplains
13-04-2016, 08:48 PM
I like SEK a lot. Like SCL, but the product is more prone to damage. Still, I think they have a better moat and NTA is higher, which is a big deal for me. SCL probably has more growth due to its lack of maturity on the NZX and liquidity + excitement.

I tried to buy in a while ago, but the deal never went through and I ended up buying something else.

Had a friend do some work for SEK, he thinks they're a smart bunch running a solid company.


Snap! I had an order go unfilled for ages and swapped out to another play instead (PGW - doh!). I'm really interested in two points you make about their better moat and higher NTA. Can you elaborate on these? I'd be really keen to read your thinking on this.

LAC
27-04-2016, 07:41 AM
If anyone on ST is heading to the meeting, can you please post any news that we may miss.
Thanks

Fisherking
27-04-2016, 06:39 PM
If anyone on ST is heading to the meeting, can you please post any news that we may miss.
Thanks

I didn't get to the meeting, but the report is excellent reading
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SEK/announcements/281380
(https://www.nzx.com/companies/SEK/announcements/281380)

LAC
27-04-2016, 08:36 PM
Was was great reading but wanted to know what questions/answers were asked at the meeting....

IAK
17-05-2016, 01:02 PM
Not much on the buy side this pm after 10,000 shares went at $4.50.

iceman
17-05-2016, 08:19 PM
Not much on the buy side this pm after 10,000 shares went at $4.50.

And even less on the sell side !! Been like that more or less all year with very low liquidity but steady and good SP growth. Coming to the back end of harvesting season that appears to be reasonably good and no major upsets. No reason to think the SP will not continue a bit higher. I will be surprised if we don't get a 5 at the front before year end and a nice steady increase in divie this year.

IAK
17-05-2016, 09:12 PM
And even less on the sell side !! Been like that more or less all year with very low liquidity but steady and good SP growth. Coming to the back end of harvesting season that appears to be reasonably good and no major upsets. No reason to think the SP will not continue a bit higher. I will be surprised if we don't get a 5 at the front before year end and a nice steady increase in divie this year.

Sorry I meant the sell side. I see a few thousand turned up later in the afternoon.

iceman
14-06-2016, 05:49 AM
Well we are now coming to the end of harvesting season. My info is that SEK will equal or exceed last year's record harvest/packing of 30M trays with all indications that prices are remaining firm. Seems to becoming clear that Zespri can not sell all the Hayward produced which makes their refusal to allow Seeka and the other applicant, to sell fruit directly into new overseas markets, look a bit stupid. That decision does not seem to be in the best interests of NZ growers.
Coldstores have been full for the back half of the harvesting season and will remain so.

No big unexpected issues in Australia although I believe there are some minor teething issues to integrate the new business into Seeka's processes. But improving and growing relationship with supermarket chains is a positive across the ditch. Expect good growth from Australia over coming years.

It will be interesting to see their update which normally comes end of July. I expect a good one, good enough to see a continued increase in dividends

iceman
22-06-2016, 09:48 AM
As expected SEK has this morning confirmed record volumes of 30.8M trays but will have to dump 700k trays due to Zespri's failure to sell all the fruit grown this year and their ridiculous decision not to allow SEK to sell that fruit into Australia.
Looking forward to the 1H earnings to be reported late August

bull....
22-06-2016, 10:06 AM
good result I should have stayed in, but cant complain costa is doing alright too

kiwidollabill
14-07-2016, 01:44 PM
Was attending an industry conf today, Avocado crop is going to be a bumper one, will provide an upside, obviously smaller contribution to $$ though

LAC
02-08-2016, 12:27 PM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11685748

Can't be good news for SEK or SCL...

LAC
05-08-2016, 01:40 PM
Not good news, could this affect apple exports as well?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11687909

sb9
05-08-2016, 01:43 PM
Not good news, could this affect apple exports as well?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11687909

Wouldn't think so...

IAK
05-08-2016, 02:12 PM
Not good news, could this affect apple exports as well?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11687909


Hope not lol.

iceman
05-08-2016, 09:42 PM
Not good news, could this affect apple exports as well?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11687909

Very hard to say as noone seems to know exactly what the problem is. The fungus issue is well understood and is already in China, so it isn´t a biosecurity or health issue.

Is it China sending a warning about the rumoured inquiry into cheap steel from China ? Could it possibly be China showing us how much the dislike the monopoly that is Zespri ?
Too many unknowns to make an educated guess.

Seeka´s fruit and exports have so far not be affected by this issue.

drcjp
06-08-2016, 06:00 AM
SCL has in its favour the major shareholding of v. large China Resources. China will not want to bite its own nose off. I wonder if Seeka may end up with a similar major Chinese holder soon to smooth things over?

bull....
07-08-2016, 03:34 PM
tough times coming for kiwifruit
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/82853889/stacey-kirk-parties-to-war-over-chinese-trade--can-the-opposition-glance-a-blow

anyway the shipment delay means kiwifruit will go into storage means a oversupply of stock for next season if they cant sell it into other markets or a dumping of stock either way lower returns coming.
also zespri sell of more licences mean more supply also coming in a couple seasons but they havnt found new markets for all the extra volume so returns may be lower going forward

iceman
20-08-2016, 08:52 AM
Not much mention in the media of the fact that Kiwifruit exports to China have started again. A lot more inspection required and a lot of repacking so more cost but fruit exports underway again, which is great to see
More repacking and some extra storage time may not necessarily be too bad financially for SEK !!

LAC
20-08-2016, 09:25 AM
Think SEK will have a great result this year, we will know in a few days time. But maybe a few added cost for the next. I have sold some as I noticed the news with the fungus debacle liquidity was a bit of an issue for me and can only imagine what would happen in another PSA type issue. I hope SEK offers more shares to finance growth cos that would really help by having a few more investors on the register.

iceman
20-08-2016, 07:39 PM
I discussed a funding of future growth with both the CEO and Chairman at a meeting last year and suggested they should come to SH for at least some of the required cash. I believe this is being assessed as one of the funding options. We need more shares and SH on the register that will hopefully help increase liquidity.
Agree LAC and am expecting a good result and an increase in dividends.

Fisherking
21-08-2016, 04:24 PM
I discussed a funding of future growth with both the CEO and Chairman at a meeting last year and suggested they should come to SH for at least some of the required cash. I believe this is being assessed as one of the funding options. We need more shares and SH on the register that will hopefully help increase liquidity.
Agree LAC and am expecting a good result and an increase in dividends.

Totally agree, the SP can jump $0.20+ in a single day, volume may be <1K shares traded. I think they need to do a better job of promoting the company; there's been some pretty good news stories as they overcome PSA issues.

LAC
26-08-2016, 08:43 AM
Great result this morning.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SEK/announcements/287967

iceman
26-08-2016, 08:49 AM
Yes a spectacular report at first read. Net profit up 92% and EPS up 80%. Divie increasing from 9c to 10c and I expect another 11-12c for the FY.
Absolutely great result :-)

Balance
26-08-2016, 08:55 AM
Yes a spectacular report at first read. Net profit up 92% and EPS up 80%. Divie increasing from 9c to 10c and I expect another 11-12c for the FY.
Absolutely great result :-)

Stunner - great to see NZ companies in the non-IT sector doing so well and delivering success.

benjitara
26-08-2016, 09:57 AM
Good result.
I've bought in on the strength of it. (although I must say I'm crying after selling this stock at 80 cents!!!)
I'd like to see them get capex under a bit more control over the next 2 years and consolidate their position a little while continuing to make more of their Australia acquisition which to me has started very well despite challenging conditions.

iceman
27-08-2016, 07:49 AM
Agree benjitara about the need for careful management of CAPEX. It is a difficult balance for a company providing infrastructure services and growing own produce in a fast growing but seasonal industry. You are damned if you do and damned if you don’t. However, I hope they come to us SH for some of the cash needed for future growth.
The CEO said in his HY comments that by mid June all coldstores were full. 1.3M trays were shipped one week after harvest but CAPEX required to build storage for that “excess” is $ 15M, which is not an efficient use of our money. Sadly Seeka’s application for collaborative marketing with Hainan Province in China last year, which included VERY cheap use of coolstores in China, was declined. One has to wonder why. Sometimes one has the feeling that Zespri’s monopoly is not conducive to innovative thinking in marketing and that they are more interested in protecting their monopoly.

One interesting little bit in the HY numbers is that free cashflow from operation was +3.3M , very unusual for the first half which normally has negative cashflow. I think this sets us up for a good 2nd half. Interesting to note also that this is the last year of the growers loyalty scheme which this year cost SEK nearly $3M in new shares. This is not a cash transaction but will flow straight to the bottom line next year as long as the growers stay with SEK.

Overall the business seems in good health. Kiwfruit with record volumes, Australia with a maiden (but below expectations) profit, Kiwiberry forecast to double in 2017, Avocados going great. The only lacklustre performance seems to be in Bananas and in Seeka Retail generally. But I am very pleased with this result. Also love how they announce the DRP strike price at the same time they announce the divie. Wish more companies did that.

I believe we will see quite rapid further growth of Seeka for the next 3-5 years and expect capitalisation to triple in the medium term. I am in for the ride with SEK currentlybeing my biggest holding.

benjitara
27-08-2016, 08:36 AM
I'm cautiously optimistic that they can continue to post increasing returns and profit increases but would like them to make a good fist of their current Australian operations before putting more capital into that part of the business. It's a rugged piece of earth Australia!
Any way, I'm pleased with the dividend, in this for the next 3-4 years all going well.

percy
27-08-2016, 09:35 AM
Agree benjitara about the need for careful management of CAPEX. It is a difficult balance for a company providing infrastructure services and growing own produce in a fast growing but seasonal industry. You are damned if you do and damned if you don’t. However, I hope they come to us SH for some of the cash needed for future growth.
The CEO said in his HY comments that by mid June all coldstores were full. 1.3M trays were shipped one week after harvest but CAPEX required to build storage for that “excess” is $ 15M, which is not an efficient use of our money. Sadly Seeka’s application for collaborative marketing with Hainan Province in China last year, which included VERY cheap use of coolstores in China, was declined. One has to wonder why. Sometimes one has the feeling that Zespri’s monopoly is not conducive to innovative thinking in marketing and that they are more interested in protecting their monopoly.

One interesting little bit in the HY numbers is that free cashflow from operation was +3.3M , very unusual for the first half which normally has negative cashflow. I think this sets us up for a good 2nd half. Interesting to note also that this is the last year of the growers loyalty scheme which this year cost SEK nearly $3M in new shares. This is not a cash transaction but will flow straight to the bottom line next year as long as the growers stay with SEK.

Overall the business seems in good health. Kiwfruit with record volumes, Australia with a maiden (but below expectations) profit, Kiwiberry forecast to double in 2017, Avocados going great. The only lacklustre performance seems to be in Bananas and in Seeka Retail generally. But I am very pleased with this result. Also love how they announce the DRP strike price at the same time they announce the divie. Wish more companies did that.

I believe we will see quite rapid further growth of Seeka for the next 3-5 years and expect capitalisation to triple in the medium term. I am in for the ride with SEK currentlybeing my biggest holding.

Thanks Iceman.
You remain "well positioned."!!!!..lol.

Jantar
31-08-2016, 08:44 AM
Kiwifruit flavoured Iceblocks? https://www.nzx.com/companies/SEK/announcements/288220

Should add to the expected earnings next year.

LAC
31-08-2016, 08:59 AM
Kiwifruit flavoured Iceblocks? https://www.nzx.com/companies/SEK/announcements/288220

Should add to the expected earnings next year.

Sounds like a promising acquisition but shouldn't they have provided details on the financial position of the business? What earnings can we expect from this?

iceman
01-09-2016, 09:11 AM
Sounds like a promising acquisition but shouldn't they have provided details on the financial position of the business? What earnings can we expect from this?

Agree LAC. This adds a complete new dimension to the business with new associated risks/rewards. Impossible to weigh up whether this is good or bad with no information given.

Balance
01-09-2016, 09:30 AM
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/zespri-cuts-forecast-2017-profit-grower-returns-green-kiwifruit-increased-supply-b-193708

Profit downgrade in the offing?

bull....
01-09-2016, 09:32 AM
tough times coming for kiwifruit
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/82853889/stacey-kirk-parties-to-war-over-chinese-trade--can-the-opposition-glance-a-blow

anyway the shipment delay means kiwifruit will go into storage means a oversupply of stock for next season if they cant sell it into other markets or a dumping of stock either way lower returns coming.
also zespri sell of more licences mean more supply also coming in a couple seasons but they havnt found new markets for all the extra volume so returns may be lower going forward

saw this coming

benjitara
01-09-2016, 10:01 AM
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/zespri-cuts-forecast-2017-profit-grower-returns-green-kiwifruit-increased-supply-b-193708

Profit downgrade in the offing?

I'm not entirely sure it should be seen as a negative. It's been bumper harvest. probably time to diversify their products so they can make use of such a good harvest.

kiora
02-09-2016, 08:04 AM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/agribusiness-feature/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503466&objectid=11701919&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+2+Se ptember+2016

jimbo
06-09-2016, 06:08 PM
Sounds like a promising acquisition but shouldn't they have provided details on the financial position of the business? What earnings can we expect from this?

My first thought was that it could be a good means for turning excess and low quality fruit (that would otherwise be unsellable) into product. The question then is whether anyone actually buys the Kiwi Crush range - I've seen them in the supermarket for years but never thought to pick up a box. I'd love to know what their sales volumes are like. Straw poll: has anyone here ever bought them?

Hectorplains
06-09-2016, 06:23 PM
My first thought was that it could be a good means for turning excess and low quality fruit (that would otherwise be unsellable) into product. The question then is whether anyone actually buys the Kiwi Crush range - I've seen them in the supermarket for years but never thought to pick up a box. I'd love to know what their sales volumes are like. Straw poll: has anyone here ever bought them?


It's popular if you need to 'get things moving' - is often advised to be taken if you're on a course of codeine...

bull....
07-09-2016, 10:21 AM
nice to see companies moving into value add in there supply chain

iceman
23-09-2016, 09:32 AM
Interesting to see that SEK's SP is not dropping after going XD, albeit on low volume. Makes the DRP at $4.27 a good bet :-)

whatsup
23-09-2016, 09:43 AM
Interesting to see that SEK's SP is not dropping after going XD, albeit on low volume. Makes the DRP at $4.27 a good bet :-)
AGM yesterday I think !

iceman
23-09-2016, 09:46 AM
AGM yesterday I think !

It was in April and as far as I know no new news out. Next stakeholder update 21 October

benjitara
23-09-2016, 09:48 AM
Given the sound half yearly I wouldn't think the stock would see much downwards pressure on its share price. Some headwinds maybe with production but overall still looking competitively priced in my humble opinion.

Jay
23-09-2016, 09:52 AM
Interesting to see that SEK's SP is not dropping after going XD, albeit on low volume. Makes the DRP at $4.27 a good bet :-)

Noticed that too, had to recheck the ex date and also on the DRP, so not bad outcome !

iceman
23-09-2016, 09:54 AM
Agree benjitara. But I look forward to seeing some more detail in the October update on the purchase of Kiwi Crush and the establishment of a food technology and processing centre in the BoP. This is quite a major change to current business with more emphasis on value adding. It sounds good to me to do that but very little detail has been provided and meanwhile they have a big job in front of them to build up the Australian business. They can not take their eyes of the ball on that one !

iceman
26-09-2016, 11:30 AM
Called SEK today to get some more info on Kiwi Crush purchase and new technology processing centre. It had a very low purchase price and they expect it to pay for itself within a year or 2. Kiwi Crush is mainly sold to hospitals and Douglas Pharmaceuticals as a digestive enhancer (chemotherapy patients for example use it) using the strong prebiotic and enzymes qualities of green Kiwifruit. SEK has sold low/no value fruit (due to cosmetic defect) to Kiwi Crush already but intends to increase this production now that they own the business outright. Also intend to bring bottling and selling of Avocado Oil in-house, which to date has been onsold to Village Press (I think) for bottling and marketing. That is the intention with the processing centre in Tauranga, something that is yet to be built.
Sounds like business is otherwise tracking along nicely both here and in Australia. Biggest concern in Australia is very low water levels in Lake Eildon but seems to be improving and not at critical stage anymore as far as I understand.

percy
26-09-2016, 11:40 AM
Google Lake Eildon and you are updated daily with water levels.!!

Snow Leopard
26-09-2016, 11:43 AM
...Biggest concern in Australia is very low water levels in Lake Eildon but seems to be improving and not at critical stage anymore as far as I understand.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8WLuQOLq5Q

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

iceman
26-09-2016, 11:55 AM
Google Lake Eildon and you are updated daily with water levels.!!

Not that interested mate that I need to follow it on a daily basis but have been looking at historical graphs :-)

iceman
29-09-2016, 09:03 PM
According to market announcement today, less than 10% of SH (by volume) elected the very substantially discounted DRP with its pre-announced low strike price. Good for the rest of us :-). But I can see how management has to find the right balance with their growth plans and how to fund them, between coming to SH for more cash and/or paying out an acceptable dividend. Personally I wish SH would fund it to a larger degree rather than totally debt funded to maintain the high dividends, I'd even forgo dividend for a year or 2 for good growth investments. I suppose for management it is a bit of "damned if you do and damned if you don't". Growth pains are not to be complained about though :-)

iceman
21-10-2016, 03:34 PM
Did anyone go to the investor update today and could give us some feedback ? Have just read the update they posted online and nothing new that jumps out there really. Seems they have slightly increased the top end of their FY forecast range which would give 50c EPS. That would be a great jump from 29c in 2015 and in line with my optimistic forecast at the beginning of the year. Definitely has been a good year for SEK.

LAC
13-12-2016, 02:32 PM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11766021

percy
13-12-2016, 03:24 PM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11766021

A good initative by Michael Franks/Seeka.

bull....
21-12-2016, 08:27 AM
earnings downgrade

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SEK/announcements/294652

aus operations not big enough yet to offset nz decline.

iceman
21-12-2016, 09:48 AM
Yes clearly 2017 will be down on the outstanding results from 2015 & 2016. Still nothing to change my view that SEK is a good one to have as part of long term divie paying portfolio.

Discl: Have reduced my overweight holding in last 6 weeks.

Jantar
21-12-2016, 09:54 AM
I will still buy a few if the price drops to around 420.

LAC
21-12-2016, 10:06 AM
I will buy a good few at 420 too ;)

Hectorplains
21-12-2016, 10:37 AM
I will buy a good few at 420 too ;)

So far market's let them off lightly. I'd want to hear some more detail on the NZ miss.

iceman
21-12-2016, 10:41 AM
So far market's let them off lightly. I'd want to hear some more detail on the NZ miss.

I don't think its company specific. It is an industry wide expectation that harvest for Hayward will be down 20-30%. Zespri couldn'tt sell all this years Hayward crop so it will be interesting to see what this reduction will actually do to the bottom line. Zespri needs to get their A into G !!

iceman
23-01-2017, 09:26 AM
From what I am hearing the Gold is doing well but Hayward will be down 20-30%. Avocados doing very well and Australia travelling along nicely. Obvious that 2017 profit will not match the good result last year. Depending on Australia, but profit maybe down 15-20% ?
Discl: Have halved my position in last few weeks but happy to hold remainder

LAC
27-02-2017, 04:23 PM
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SEK/announcements/297482

Beat all my forecasts:)

percy
27-02-2017, 04:45 PM
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SEK/announcements/297482

Beat all my forecasts:)

Think it beat everyones.
A cracker.

iceman
27-02-2017, 05:57 PM
Think it beat everyones.
A cracker.

It sure did. Way ahead of my most optimistic scenario. Revenue up a stunning 35% to $ 191m and NPAT up 145% on a good last year. Very happy holder :)

iceman
15-03-2017, 12:32 PM
I have been reading the recent results announcement from SEK in more detail. Obviously some traders/investors have taken note as the SP has risen 16% in the few weeks since announcement.
The numbers were spectacular with an increase in revenue of 35%, EBIDTA up 78%, EPS up 124% and a continuation of a steady increase in dividend.

Reading the announcement shows clearly how Seeka is successfully increasing its main Kiwifruit business, growing, harvesting, packing and storing. At the same time they also seem to successfully be implementing quite a significant diversification into other varieties of fruit, particulary avocados and also various tropical fruits.

Then we have the Australian business that has started contributing to SEK. Investment is taking place over there in more crop and storage and packing facilities as well as implementations of more efficient systems for the operation as a whole. Seeka now has year round branded produce in the Australian market. This is big news.

Kiwifruit in NZ next season is unlikely to yield the same as this year’s record harvest but that will be offset from an increase in Australia and the fact that the grower loyalty scheme is now finished. This cost SEK $7.2m in the last 3 years and the end of this should now flow straight to the bottom line.

With the business increasing this fast, net debt increased by almost $ 20M up to $ 73M against total assets of $ 197M.

This company in my view is still quite cheap despite recent good SP gains, on a current PE of around 8-9. The forward statements at the upcoming AGM will be of real interest. Seeka is steadily changing into a much more diversified business.

Will any ST be going to the AGM ?

bull....
15-03-2017, 01:02 PM
seeka certainly performing , sad I sold out ( only cause it was to illiquid for my liking) costa going good too so maybe the sector flavour of the yr at the moment

LAC
15-03-2017, 01:25 PM
Yes, if any ST members attending the meeting, can they please post any details that may not be in the report. Especially any q's and a's from investors.
Thanks

forest
15-03-2017, 02:38 PM
Yes, if any ST members attending the meeting, can they please post any details that may not be in the report. Especially any q's and a's from investors.
Thanks

I dont think the venue or even city has been announced were the AGM is going to be held. I only managed to find an intend of holding the AGM on the 27-4-17.

iceman
15-03-2017, 04:19 PM
I dont think the venue or even city has been announced were the AGM is going to be held. I only managed to find an intend of holding the AGM on the 27-4-17.

I think Tauranga/Mt Mauganui is a safe bet forest. Or maybe the new office facilities outside Te Puke ??

IAK
05-04-2017, 03:50 PM
Seeka have opened their new office in Te Puke. Good to see that they're working positively with iwi.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503434&objectid=11829438

iceman
05-04-2017, 07:24 PM
Good article thanks IAK. I know the CEO has been roadshowing amongst iwi quite a bit recently. I wonder if that fact has been helping with the steadily increasing SP. SEK certainly seem to be doing well and a lot happening.
Happy holder :-)