FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[percy]

Would be a bit late for end of year tax selling ... with T+2 any share you sell today changes registration only in the coming tax year.

I would think a "sell contract" would be ample proof you have sold.

[Joshuatree]

I still think the cycle FPH is in atm is not a place for my funds(i sold some weeks back and posted that)). Future cashflows are being discounted and this comment puts it succinctly

"But in a high inflationary environment high PE stocks go down. The current dividend is too low to provide dividend support."

[RTM]

Same...although still considering them.

13661

[Beagle]

A "whopping" 2.19% gross yield inclusive of imputation credits though.

[winner69]

Same...although still considering them.

13661

RTM - what does your spreadsheet look like if you put 66.00 in as Earnings (that being F22 consensus)

Change yoour outlook?

[RTM]

RTM - what does your spreadsheet look like if you put 66.00 in as Earnings (that being F22 consensus)

Change yoour outlook?

Here you go.....

13662

Yes,,,I knew I had some more work to do.
Not sure I can get this over the line. Sadly,

[winner69]

Here you go.....

13662

Yes,,,I knew I had some more work to do.
Not sure I can get this over the line. Sadly,

But Josh says a PE of 37 odd is good value for a stock like FPH

[RTM]

But Josh says a PE of 37 odd is good value for a stock like FPH

He may well do...and he may be right...but nevertheless...not for me at this time.

[couta1]

But Josh says a PE of 37 odd is good value for a stock like FPH For the sector it is but you guys get too focused on PE ratios, its all about potential and sentiment, pays to watch the road when driving and not the speedometer.

[winner69]

For the sector it is but you guys get too focused on PE ratios, its all about potential and sentiment, pays to watch the road when driving and not the speedometer.

The gravel arrestor beds on Transmission Gully road did their job ..... police car got stuck

[RTM]

The gravel arrestor beds on Transmission Gully road did their job ..... police car got stuck

Gosh...it really does pay to look at all aspects of the road, doesn't it !

[BlackPeter]

I would think a "sell contract" would be ample proof you have sold.

Absolutely - however no point in convincing the IRD that you sold something for the tax year to come if you prepare this years return.

It is certainly enough proof - however, it would be an absolutely irrelevant event for the 2021/22 tax year.

[winner69]

Guru Mark from Craig’s points out that FPH, PEB and SKO were the three worst performing stocks in the NZX50 during March quarter.

FPH in good company

[Beagle]

My opinion - First quarter of 2022 worldwide has seen just the very beginning of a reckoning process where high and no PE stocks have started to be reassessed. Plenty more highway to travel on that journey...

[couta1]

Is there a broken record playing in the background? once the groove gets too big in those things its best to use them as a Frisbee.

[winner69]

Media says AIR share price sank to 2 year low this week.

FPH saw a 2 year low as well

What a weird world we live in ....spooky

[winner69]

FPH share price combines a high P/E ratio with earnings that rely on high profit margins.... profit margin almost at record highs Not always a good place to be.

Can recent profit margins be sustained - indefinitely - to justify the high PE.

Question I'm pondering as I update my DCF valuation

Currently profit margin is in mid 20's. Not that many years ago it was in mid teens. Currently quite a lot above average over the last 10 years

Variances in profit margin makes a big difference to DCF outcome ..... so can high margins be sustained forever?

[BlackPeter]

FPH share price combines a high P/E ratio with earnings that rely on high profit margins.... profit margin almost at record highs Not always a good place to be.

Can recent profit margins be sustained - indefinitely - to justify the high PE.

Question I'm pondering as I update my DCF valuation

Currently profit margin is in mid 20's. Not that many years ago it was in mid teens. Currently quite a lot above average over the last 10 years

Variances in profit margin makes a big difference to DCF outcome ..... so can high margins be sustained forever?

Good question ...

I guess high margins will stay high if demand stays up and the competition does not manage to catch up.

Normally though high margins are attracting competitors like dung attracts flies.

On the other hand ... medical supplies are a quite special game - easy to protect your margins with IPR's, so I guess it is everybody's best guess.

Good news however re demand ... even if Covid goes away (which is not a given) - as long as people exercise less and eat more bad food they will need more breathing support on the long road to the grave.

[alokdhir]

Margins are on the way up as revenues rise thus reducing the effect of fixed costs . Thats the biggest reason for NP margin were at record high of 26.6% last year mainly due to record revenues of $ 1.97 B ie UP 56% helping NP to $ 524 Mil UP 82% .

As long as they can grow revenues NP margins will be ok though will come under some INFLATION pressures .

Also we have seen from last 6 months results that growth in consumables results in better margins vs growth in hardware . After installing lots of new hardware recently now the main emphasis ahead is in its regular usage beyond just covid needs ...that should also help margins by more growth in consumables vs hardware

FPH is not a ordinary company as it has reached a iconic status on NZX with more then 14% weightage in index thus resulting in its own advantages to SP
Just like AIR ...FPH also has some sentiments and technicals associated with its SP which has been resulting in much inflated multiples in the recent past ie 2013 onwards ...more it grows in stature ...more extra multiples gets incorporated in its SP .

Your DCF value will not be attaching any such advantage of FPH and investor sentiments mainly institutions who always end up paying some premium for Quality , track record , liquidity and longer term aspect ...unlike retail investors who treat balance sheets on par value of all listed companies ..eg Retail investor will not distinguish between WHS / HGH / OCA / FPH ...they will just see it from mathematical angle ...while institutions will attach much higher weightage to FPH quality company vis a vis others .

So to get real market savvy DCF of each company we need to incorporate some premium / discounts for company quality / status too

[winner69]

Updated the ol DCF using the 2022 sales as the new base and using more realistic sales growth assumptions. The chart shows what I projected previously and what I am projecting now

The new DCF value is $16.84 ..... and alokdhir i've essentially listened to you and built in a pretty big premium by using a 8% discount rate. (at 10% discount the DCF value is $11.74)

Oh well, filled in the time between races and I know nobody will take this on board as its a load of the proverbial.

[alokdhir]

Updated the ol DCF using the 2022 sales as the new base and using more realistic sales growth assumptions. The chart shows what I projected previously and what I am projecting now

The new DCF value is $16.84 ..... and alokdhir i've essentially listened to you and built in a pretty big premium by using a 8% discount rate. (at 10% discount the DCF value is $11.74)

Oh well, filled in the time between races and I know nobody will take this on board as its a load of the proverbial.

Lets keep this in our mind and see how market prices this in next 2-3 years . $ 17-18 is very possible on a bad day for FPH ...but will need two further big disappointing news ...So if market reprices 2023 earnings to say 55 cents and at 30 PE then it can reach your DCF levels . 2023 revenues need fall to $ 1.32 B levels for that to happen ie down 25 % from 2022 . PE of 30 even Mr B is not ascribing to FPH .

But can happen ...so will not rule it out fully . At $ 17 it should be worthwhile investment too to attract even W69 and Mr B into FPH . :t_up:

[winner69]

Lets keep this in our mind and see how market prices this in next 2-3 years . $ 17-18 is very possible on a bad day for FPH ...but will need two further big disappointing news ...So if market reprices 2023 earnings to say 55 cents and at 30 PE then it can reach your DCF levels . 2023 revenues need fall to $ 1.32 B levels for that to happen ie down 25 % from 2022 . PE of 30 even Mr B is not ascribing to FPH .

But can happen ...so will not rule it out fully . At $ 17 it should be worthwhile investment too to attract even W69 and Mr B into FPH . :t_up:

That’s the purpose of a DCF …. What price to get a desired long term return (if assumptions innit play out)

[Rawz]

What terminal value did you use W69?

And how did you calculate it?

CHEERS

[winner69]

What terminal value did you use W69?

And how did you calculate it?

CHEERS

Used 8% discount rate. (at 10% discount the DCF value is $11.74)

Not company WACC but a desired return (prefer 10% pa instead of 8% pa though)

[alokdhir]

New Covid variant called. XE is mentioned by WHO ...says its 10% more transmissible then Omicron ....but as its combination of two types of Omicron versions so hopefully its not more dangerous . But they will keep circulating for ever ...giving some boost to FPH consumables like Flu etc ...revenues may not drop big time in 2023 ...its all so difficult to predict as its so virus dependent ...more luck then forecasts IMO :p

[Rawz]

Used 8% discount rate. (at 10% discount the DCF value is $11.74)

Not company WACC but a desired return (prefer 10% pa instead of 8% pa though)

But don’t you have a discount rate and a terminal value?

[winner69]

But don’t you have a discount rate and a terminal value?

Yes, discount rate is 8% ……..and there’s a terminal value based on 3% pa growth to perpetuity at the discount rate.

[winner69]

The proverbial hitting the fan today couta aye

[Baa_Baa]

Hang on a minute...I think we've seen this movie before...keep buying a market darling in a steep confirmed downtrend until you have a huge holding...what could possibly go wrong ;)

Might be wiser to just wait until the downtrend reverses. 200EMA has crossed down through the 400EMA (https://invst.ly/xuyso). This is a serious downtrend with few obvious technical price supports. A fundamental re-rate is occurring.

[limmy]

I've just bought some today, below the $24 mark. Good long term hold.

[LoungeLizzard]

EBOS is another high PE stock that went through a rough patch - $28 only 12 months ago - but recovered and is now at record levels ($43). Not directly comparable but both FPH and EBOS are high quality stocks that over time do well (5 years ago FPH was $10). You need a long lens to investment in these type of stocks - short term dividend hunters need not apply.

[Rawz]

I wonder who will get to $100sp first. FPH or EBOS. Hmm be pretty close over the next 5 years I reckon

[winner69]

Bit of useless info ....but interesting

On US markets low P/E stocks trounced high P/E stocks in the inflationary 1970s.

Highest PE stocks (top quartile) went up 25% in the 1970s ....lowest PE stocks (40% of market) went up more than 200%. the rest in the middle went up 100%/120% on average

[winner69]

I wonder who will get to $100sp first. FPH or EBOS. Hmm be pretty close over the next 5 years I reckon

Typo surely - didn't you mean 50 years :eek2::confused::cool:

[BlackPeter]

Typo surely - didn't you mean 50 years :eek2::confused::cool:

He might be right though - you need to take inflation into account ;) ;

[Joshuatree]

Bit of useless info ....but interesting

On US markets low P/E stocks trounced high P/E stocks in the inflationary 1970s.

Highest PE stocks (top quartile) went up 25% in the 1970s ....lowest PE stocks (40% of market) went up more than 200%. the rest in the middle went up 100%/120% on average

Exactly.The shift to value stocks continues. The divi does not provide enough cushion to negate inflation, interest rates and future cashflows are being discounted.
Gotta watch the cycles you're in not just the stock.

And the trend as has been pointed out by Beagle and Moosie.General rule in prudent investing is buy on an uptrend not a down trend.

Check out KW's thread somewhere re when to buy a stock , it can be helpful tool re timing in and out; when the 60DMA has gone above the 180 dma, others use the re 30 dma over the 90-`100dma. Most of all DYOR and dont follow the cheerleaders. My opinion only , NOT a recco.

[LoungeLizzard]

Exactly.The shift to value stocks continues. The divi does not provide enough cushion to negate inflation, interest rates and future cashflows are being discounted.
Gotta watch the cycles you're in not just the stock.

And the trend as has been pointed out by Beagle and Moosie.General rule in prudent investing is buy on an uptrend not a down trend.

Check out KW's thread somewhere re when to buy a stock , it can be helpful tool re timing in and out; when the 60DMA has gone above the 180 dma, others use the re 30 dma over the 90-`100dma. Most of all DYOR and dont follow the cheerleaders. My opinion only , NOT a recco.

The old adage that it's time in the market, not timing the market, applies to high PE / high value stocks such as FPH. If you look at the long term graph of FPH it has outperformed the NZX by far. Even at current FPH levels you are looking at a 25% return over the last 5 years? I wouldn't baulk at buying more FPH is it dipped a bit further, but trying to predict the exact moment when you are buying something for 5 years more is a mugs game.

[Rawz]

I had this dream last night that I was back in the family home that I grew up in. I was in the part of the house that formed a square with rooms on the outside and hallways on the inside.

I was in the hallways and in one of the rooms was this huge angry grizzly bear. It was hunting me. I was keeping an eye on it by peeking through a crack in the door next to the room the bear was in. I needed to escape the bear. I thought it a good opportunity to run to the other end of the hallway, open the door and make my escape.. so I went to the door. Once at the door I quietly opened it a crack and peeked through, luckily no bear. Just to be safe though, I thought I would double back to the other side of the hallway to be sure the bear was still in that room and wasnt instead making its way around the outside rooms to meet me....

The trouble is when I opened the other door to check the location of the bear it wasnt there. I suddenly realized I should never have taken my eye of the bear as it could be anywhere now. I started to panic and decided to double back and check the other side. However when I turned the huge bear was right there!!! It had snuck up on me and the bloody bear mauled me!!

Now this was a true dream and not that I believe in dreams meaning anything but is my FPH holding about to be mauled as it is very bearish right now. I took my eye off the TA just like I took my eye off the bear and now the bear has got me??? Im not sure if I can escape, Ive taken so much damage already :ohmy:

[alokdhir]

All here ...including the ones looking for further lows ..will agree that in longer term FPH will be much higher then current SP !

So does it matter if recent bottom is $ 18 or $ 22 when we all know it will be $ 50 in next 3-5 years time .

In trying to be very cheeky some may loose out on a great opportunity to get into a high quality company as well as business at pretty reasonable price compared to its historic valuations ...IMHO

But then some are much smarter stock pickers then me and they can time their entry much better then most including me . Also I acknowledge that presently FPH looking weak due to normalisation process of big Covid movements ...its big gains of 2021 is hurting SP at moment but eventually as shown in Josh's Video ...the current scenario of revenues and eps is higher then pre covid trends ...it showed that post covid CAGR will get a boost after it stabilises in 2023

[Joshuatree]

The old adage that it's time in the market, not timing the market, applies to high PE / high value stocks such as FPH. If you look at the long term graph of FPH it has outperformed the NZX by far. Even at current FPH levels you are looking at a 25% return over the last 5 years? I wouldn't baulk at buying more FPH is it dipped a bit further, but trying to predict the exact moment when you are buying something for 5 years more is a mugs game.

Yeah its pretty well impossible being exact, its a mugs game.

Heres a legend saying the mkt is going crash and value stocks are where its at. Its bit long but int and USA specific.

37:11LiveUpcomingCalling a Super Bubble: Front Row With Jeremy GranthamBloomberg Markets and Finance1.6M views • 2 months agoBloomberg Markets and Finance • 1.6M views (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlEGU2ypr1Q)

[LoungeLizzard]

All here ...including the ones looking for further lows ..will agree that in longer term FPH will be much higher then current SP !

So does it matter if recent bottom is $ 18 or $ 22 when we all know it will be $ 50 in next 3-5 years time .

In trying to be very cheeky some may loose out on a great opportunity to get into a high quality company as well as business at pretty reasonable price compared to its historic valuations ...IMHO

But then some are much smarter stock pickers then me and they can time their entry much better then most including me . Also I acknowledge that presently FPH looking weak due to normalisation process of big Covid movements ...its big gains of 2021 is hurting SP at moment but eventually as shown in Josh's Video ...the current scenario of revenues and eps is higher then pre covid trends ...it showed that post covid CAGR will get a boost after it stabilises in 2023

Exactly. Buying on a dip is something we all do, but there's very few who can say, hand on heart, that they can time the exact moment to buy and sell. There are general rules about when the squiggly lines cross over, but that's all they are - general rules. As you say, FPH is in a better position now than that it was pre-covid, yet it's SP is nowhere near what it was back then. The ship is solid - it's just the seas that are rough. Smoother waters ahead I reckon.

[alokdhir]

Exactly. Buying on a dip is something we all do, but there's very few who can say, hand on heart, that they can time the exact moment to buy and sell. There are general rules about when the squiggly lines cross over, but that's all they are - general rules. As you say, FPH is in a better position now than that it was pre-covid, yet it's SP is nowhere near what it was back then. The ship is solid - it's just the seas that are rough. Smoother waters ahead I reckon.

Unless some people doubt the business and quality of company ...like ATM .

If business is good and its Moat is solid then FPH will regain its glory in next few years . They have world class hospital equipment ...their humidification technology is their biggest asset and they are acknowledged as world leaders in that .

They try to build all their future growth plans around this expertise of humidification ...latest is surgical use of warm humidified air for better recovery rates ...its still not very widely accepted as doctors dont see much advantage in 5% better healing rates ...but slowly it can be big revenue generator ...

[winner69]

Share price close $23.16 ....price not seen since Jan 2020... that's quite a while ago

hopefully I'll get my $18 'target' - if not lower

Bit spooky that both ATM and FPH have hit multi year lows

[Waltzing]

Winner() ; charts say 18 about the low on the underside of the slope since 2013.

[winner69]

Winner() ; charts say 18 about the low on the underside of the slope since 2013.

You mean something like this

[percy]

FPH share price.
8/4/2012...............$2.16.........Today's sp is 10.72 times cost
9/4/2017................$9.65........Today's sp is 2.4 times cost.
11/4/2014...............$23.16...
Like so many on Sharetrader the trust I am a trustee of has held FPH more than 10 years.In fact I expect the trust will still be holding them in 10 years time.We hang onto our winners.
Does not matter should Ebos beat FPH to $100 as the trust holds them too.

[Joshuatree]

Interest Rates go up
FPH goes down,wrong cycle to be in high pe stocks,future cash flows being discounted.

[winner69]

Interest Rates go up
FPH goes down,wrong cycle to be in high pe stocks,future cash flows being discounted.

Last time OCR was 1.5% the FPH share price was about $16

[Rawz]

The bear has got me. Almost dead

[Gerald]

Salt say FPH is now "relatively attractive". Must mean something, but then at the same time it's one of the largest underweights in another one of their funds.

Fundies eh :confused:

[Rawz]

I wonder how much pricing power FPH have? Any thoughts on that?

[Muse]

The bear has got me. Almost dead

Well you never know rawz - China have to give up on zero covid someday. The way it is said to be spreading that could be in 3-6 months. They focus on reuseable rather than single use consumables, but could be good for FPH device sales.

[alokdhir]

Bear have got this thread too ....FPH in Bear hug ....:cool:

[winner69]

Phew ---- after 5 down days in a row it looks like today is going to be an UP day

[Sideshow Bob]

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare announces 2022 Investor Day - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/390636)

25th of May for the results. Investor day 26th of May, with optional site tour (that would be fairly interesting).

Imagine they'd have good saussie rolls too! :p

[newbieinvestor]

Phew ---- after 5 down days in a row it looks like today is going to be an UP day

Seems FPH got a bit of a bear hug :eek2: aye W69!

[Rawz]

Looks oversold on the chart

(lol dont listen to me thou. I am only starting to get to understand this fandangled technical analysis)

[Maxtrade]

Looks oversold on the chart

(lol dont listen to me thou. I am only starting to get to understand this fandangled technical analysis)

Will be interesting to see how low the SP can go on this current downtrend. May be more of a downtrend than we might have thought coming off the back of a stabilising Covid world. Obviously rallied firmly amongst covid, but the recourse is now falling equally as hard without the support. We would think surely it will find enough support build and remain above $20! Her to see substantial buy interest yet though. We can only hope targets are set to mount bids once (if) touches $20.5 - $21.5? If breaks through below $20 we might all be in trouble.

[couta1]

Will be interesting to see how low the SP can go on this current downtrend. May be more of a downtrend than we might have thought coming off the back of a stabilising Covid world. Obviously rallied firmly amongst covid, but the recourse is now falling equally as hard without the support. We would think surely it will find enough support build and remain above $20! Her to see substantial buy interest yet though. We can only hope targets are set to mount bids once (if) touches $20.5 - $21.5? If breaks through below $20 we might all be in trouble. Looks pretty stable around current price and a lot of negative has now been baked in IMO but if you look 3-5 yrs ahead it doesn't really matter what the market does short term, a quality company selling much needed products worldwide with clearly outlined expansion plans is what you need to focus on.

[winner69]

Close 22.26

Low for the day - some say closing on a low not good for the next trading day

And lowest for some time

Me still watching and waiting

[couta1]

Close 22.26

Low for the day - some say closing on a low not good for the next trading day

And lowest for some time

Me still watching and waiting Yeah I'm watching and waiting until it gets near $50 but hey good things take time, whole NZX looks a bit sick atm though.

[Beagle]

Close 22.26

Low for the day - some say closing on a low not good for the next trading day

And lowest for some time

Me still watching and waiting

Just wait for a new uptrend mate. No point catching a falling knife. When it breaks back up through the 200 day moving average that's the time to buy and not before in my opinion. Who knows when that might be ?, might even be a year or two away.

[Arbroath]

Just wait for a new uptrend mate. No point catching a falling knife. When it breaks back up through the 200 day moving average that's the time to buy and not before in my opinion. Who knows when that might be ?, might even be a year or two away.

Tend to agree on your point about downtrends but I’d dip my toes in around $18 (the Peter Lynch theory) and follow it more closely as long term (10 years) I think it’ll be bigger and worth more.

[percy]

Tend to agree on your point about downtrends but I’d dip my toes in around $18 (the Peter Lynch theory) and follow it more closely as long term (10 years) I think it’ll be bigger and worth more.

Well those who bought as long term 10 years ago, paid $2.20 on 24/4/2012.
Also enjoyed dividends as well.
Current dividend of 39 cps gives a yield of 8.58% on cost.
And current share price is 10 times what it was 10 years ago.
"Not a lot of people who do not own FPH shares know that."...lol

[Rawz]

Well those who bought as long term 10 years ago, paid $2.20 on 24/4/2012.
Also enjoyed dividends as well.
Current dividend of 39 cps gives a yield of 8.58% on cost.
And current share price is 10 times what it was 10 years ago.
"Not a lot of people who do not own FPH shares know that."...lol

I wonder what the P/E was 10 years ago? Mid teens if i was to have a guess

[percy]

I wonder what the P/E was 10 years ago? Mid teens if i was to have a guess

From memory low twenties.

[Beagle]

Tend to agree on your point about downtrends but I’d dip my toes in around $18 (the Peter Lynch theory) and follow it more closely as long term (10 years) I think it’ll be bigger and worth more.

I think its more prudent to wait for the next uptrend whenever that might be. Its dropped ~ $12 in the last 6 months who's to say it won't drop another $12 ? Stocks all around the world that benefited from the strong tailwinds of Covid are getting absolutly smashed as those tailwinds abate. Good example was Netflix which announced this morning. They could do nothing wrong during the height of Covid but are down 42% year to date and another whopping 22% just this morning after they reported a disappointing result and weak outlook. Catching falling knives is something I leave to others because I like all my paws intact lol

Balance is almost always right that downgrades come in three's and when he's wrong its usually because the downgrades came in four stages.
Long term holders can point to their long term gains and that's fine. I hope that gives them comfort as they continue to see those gains eroded away at considerable pace. Your long term returns will be vastly better if you buy in at close to the bottom in a new uptrend.

[Rawz]

When did FPH actually downgrade guidance they provided?

[couta1]

Lol the negative non holder bleating is back, the same message over and over, as if we didn't hear it after a half a dozen times.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/FPH/389295/367199.pdf
23 March 2022. Market took it as a disappointment / downgrade.
Price down from $25.70 the day before that announcement to just $22.26 yesterday, a decline of 13.4% in less than a month.

[winner69]

When percy bought 10 years ago at $2.20 FPH were on track to an EPS of 12.2 cents --- a PE of 18. Today the PE is 34 on forecast F22 earnings

Just shows when you buy on modest PEs ones long term returns are far superior than buying at elevated PEs

If FPH was still on a PE of 18 its share price today would be about $11.50 ..... so the other $10.76 is what all the excited punters have added to the share price. And Percy and others have cashed in on this excitment (to the tune of 10 bucks a share) - well done to them.

The PFH share price has increased by $20 since Percy bought 10 years ago - about $9.24 has come from FPH performance (increased earnings) and the other $10.76 come from market excitment / hype

Back to today - remember superior long term returns generally result from buying at reasonable prices (Beagle has a term for that) ..... buy at elevated prices and long term returns are more subdued (sometimes negative)

So today we appear to have a few waiting for that reasonable price to happen (and get long term returns) and we have a few long term holders hanging in there and hoping that their long term returns don't dissipate too much more .

[couta1]

When did FPH actually downgrade guidance they provided? They didn't because they hadn't provided prior guidance.

[Beagle]

When percy bought 10 years ago at $2.20 FPH were on track to an EPS of 12.2 cents --- a PE of 18. Today the PE is 34 on forecast F22 earnings

Just shows when you buy on modest PEs ones long term returns are far superior than buying at elevated PEs

If FPH was still on a PE of 18 its share price today would be about $11.50 ..... so the other $10.76 is what all the excited punters have added to the share price. And Percy and others have cashed in on this excitment (to the tune of 10 bucks a share) - well done to them.

The PFH share price has increased by $20 since Percy bought 10 years ago - about $9.24 has come from FPH performance (increased earnings) and the other $10.76 come from market excitment / hype

Back to today - remember superior long term returns generally result from buying at reasonable prices (Beagle has a term for that) ..... buy at elevated prices and long term returns are more subdued (sometimes negative)

So today we appear to have a few waiting for that reasonable price to happen (and get long term returns) and we have a few long term holders hanging in there and hoping that their long term returns don't dissipate too much more .

An excellent synopsis of the situation Sir, well said !
The term you refer too is GARP (Growth at a reasonable price). I am always happy to pay for growth as long as its at a reasonable price.

[Waltzing]

It was a nice ride that was for sure.

[alokdhir]

When percy bought 10 years ago at $2.20 FPH were on track to an EPS of 12.2 cents --- a PE of 18. Today the PE is 34 on forecast F22 earnings

Just shows when you buy on modest PEs ones long term returns are far superior than buying at elevated PEs

If FPH was still on a PE of 18 its share price today would be about $11.50 ..... so the other $10.76 is what all the excited punters have added to the share price. And Percy and others have cashed in on this excitment (to the tune of 10 bucks a share) - well done to them.

The PFH share price has increased by $20 since Percy bought 10 years ago - about $9.24 has come from FPH performance (increased earnings) and the other $10.76 come from market excitment / hype

Back to today - remember superior long term returns generally result from buying at reasonable prices (Beagle has a term for that) ..... buy at elevated prices and long term returns are more subdued (sometimes negative)

So today we appear to have a few waiting for that reasonable price to happen (and get long term returns) and we have a few long term holders hanging in there and hoping that their long term returns don't dissipate too much more .

Also to be noted here ...When Percy bought at PE of 18 at that time FPH was not yet a Bluechip or proven company ...just had good pedigree and needed to prove itself with Consistent growth and establishing its Moat and credibility etc

Its not as simple as u are making out to be ...some PE expansion happens due to rise in status of the company . It was not No 1 company on NZX by market cap thus biggest index holding etc ...didnt have this kind of liquidity which instos need for their safety or mandate etc .

Also in last 10 years rates went so much south too ...now also long term trend of rates is down only as this kind of debt world over will always not let rates go too far up ...unless Govts world over will go bankrupt .

Expansion of 18 PE to average 35 PE happened for various reasons ...but I agree getting into future bluechip companies early helps in future returns ...as mature bluechips always command higher PEs

Now lets do brainstorming about future bluechips of NZX ...HGH , OCA , WHS or SKT ???

[Rawz]

Yes good post W69. Some guru did this calculation on a podcast I listened to a few months back but on the S&P500. Largest portion of the gains over 20 years was multiple expansion. Then margin increase then sales increase. I bet the same for NZX50.

So best approach is to find great companies early (easier said than done) and ride the multiple expansion. Then sell down at the top (easier said than done) and re-entre when the multiple contracts.

Or

Find great companies and hold forever (easy) and ride the multiple expansion up and down.. up and down

[Beagle]

If FPH was still on a PE of 18 its share price today would be about $11.50 ..... so the other $10.76 is what all the excited punters have added to the share price. .
So long term investors have made more from multiple expansion than from eps growth. The issue I have with long term investors skiting about their returns and talking up the long term prospects is they never objectively point out that their returns were mostly predicated upon multiple expansion and if PE's normalize back to where they were 10 years ago, (could easily happen with ongoing interest rate increases), the last decade's returns from multiple expansion could go into reverse and even though the company is still growing shareholders could easily find the shares going nowhere, perhaps for as long as a decade. (RYM the perfect example...was about where it is now, 8 years ago).

8 years ago people were talking up RYM that you couldn't go wrong holding long term...I remember one former poster claiming it would be $30+ by now.

My contention is simple. There is no greater way to ensure that at very best, you just get an NZX50 return, (at worst years of serious market underperformance), than to buy a bunch of market darlings at hugely elevated multiples. The risks with rapidly rising interest rates to stocks on elevated multiples should be crystal clear to anyone who understands the investment basics.

[percy]

[QUOTE=

So best approach is to find great companies early (easier said than done) and ride the multiple expansion. Then sell down at the top (easier said than done) and re-entre when the multiple contracts.

Or

Find great companies and hold forever (easy) and ride the multiple expansion up and down.. up and down[/QUOTE]

Doing a lot of research you can find great companies.
My own approach is to do my research,buy a modest holding,and should the company does as it says it will do, buy more.
If I have it wrong I sell straight away, no matter what I paid for the share.
Should I become grossly overweighted,or a share runs higher than I expected, I will take some off the top.
That money is then recycled into the next great company.
Never be afraid of making a mistake.Just front up to it straight away.
However if your thesis is correct ,back yourself.
Long term STders will well remember the rubbish I had to put up with when I backed HGH and TRA a few years ago..

[Maxtrade]

When percy bought 10 years ago at $2.20 FPH were on track to an EPS of 12.2 cents --- a PE of 18. Today the PE is 34 on forecast F22 earnings

Just shows when you buy on modest PEs ones long term returns are far superior than buying at elevated PEs

If FPH was still on a PE of 18 its share price today would be about $11.50 ..... so the other $10.76 is what all the excited punters have added to the share price. And Percy and others have cashed in on this excitment (to the tune of 10 bucks a share) - well done to them.

The PFH share price has increased by $20 since Percy bought 10 years ago - about $9.24 has come from FPH performance (increased earnings) and the other $10.76 come from market excitment / hype

Back to today - remember superior long term returns generally result from buying at reasonable prices (Beagle has a term for that) ..... buy at elevated prices and long term returns are more subdued (sometimes negative)

So today we appear to have a few waiting for that reasonable price to happen (and get long term returns) and we have a few long term holders hanging in there and hoping that their long term returns don't dissipate too much more .


Tend to agree. Even at the recently declined share price sitting at $22, when based off P/E it appears many longer term investors are willing to pay a considerable premium indicating that they are expecting proportionally considerable earnings growth in the future. We all know a share price cant solely be based off P/E though. However it does indicate a price premium, growth expectation. That might not be there at this level in todays economic world. But who has a crystal ball, maybe there will always be enough investors who bet and buy on the growth in earnings. (In some ways similar to how pongee schemes work, as long as money continually flows in then share prices (for most solid stable companies) continually go up (in the long term historically). Will the next 10 years be the same overall trend, who knows. Is FPH 'worth' $22/share, when based simply off its current position then no, so the unknown is always the future earnings, that is where different investors see different value in a stock. Taking out all the Covid bubble, the SP was on a longer term (albeit slower) uptrend. Putting it around the low $20's, which is where it has come back down to now. Unless the potential earnings growth has somehow magically disappeared, or that investors don't feel it will be there, then the share price should remain at this level. Unlikely to drop into the 'teens'. However the difference which is creating an anomaly now is factoring in much higher inflation over the next period. If FPH SP stabilises in the low $20's and does not keep up with relative inflation then effectively the SP would be declining still.

Basically new investors should consider some of the following, is FPH a solid company, is it going anywhere. Do you believe in it's growth and earning potential. Is this reflective in its current share price and are you willing to pay that multiple of it's revenue. Hence Beagles GARP assessment strategy. P/E was previously sitting around 25, however Winner has mentioned above that the P/E is now 34 based on F22 at current SP, which is considerably higher than industry average, which would indicate the shares are over priced if his P/E calculation is accurate.

[couta1]

I'm yet to understand why someone would go on and on about any company they don't own, once you've made your point then go and talk about something you actually own and are passionate about or find more hobbies. Yes Percy I remember clearly the disgraceful behaviour you had to put up with back then and we don't want a repeat.

[Rawz]

Some good posts on this thread today.

Beagle talking about a lost decade.. it happened to another great company- Microsoft. After the dot com bubble the SP dropped 40% and then did nothing for 10 years as its earnings growth slowly ate away at its lofty peak P/E of 60.

But if you were a long term investor in Microsoft and bought at the very peak of the dot com bubble and held for 22 years until today you would still have a 400% total return (higher than the S&P 500). If you bought after the dot com bubble and held through the zero movement lost decade all the way until today you would have a 900% return. Pretty good!

Back to FPH. Those that bought at recent highs all good... you may just have to settle for a 400% return over the next couple of decades. And those buying now and around the new lows in the months to come.. it could be very lucrative in the long run.
(This all excludes dividends which is just a bonus for holding)

[couta1]

Some good posts on this thread today.

Beagle talking about a lost decade.. it happened to another great company- mircrosoft. After the dot com bubble the SP dropped 40% and then did nothing for 10 years as its earnings growth slowly ate away at its lofty peak P/E of 60.

But if you were a long term investor in mircrosoft and bought at the very peak of the dot com bubble and held for 22 years until today you would still have a 400% total return (higher than the S&P 500). If you bought after the dot com bubble and held through the zero movement lost decade all the way until today you would have a 900% return. Pretty good!

Back to FPH. Those that bought at recent highs all good... you may just have to settle for a 400% return over the next couple of decades. And those buying now and around the new lows in the months to come.. it could be very lucrative in the long run.
(This all excludes dividends which is just a bonus for holding) Many great companies have been down up to 90% from their former highs at some point in their history yet have gone on to great heights over time, having a myopic viewpoint is pointless with such companies and I believe this is one such company.

[winner69]

I got a bundle of Restaurant Brands at about 70 cents 13 years ago .... I see they are now $13.25 .... bugger it they hit $16 not that long ago so down the gurgler a bit since then ....common sense sid I should have considered seling but I have an emotional attachment to my RBD shares

Never worried about them .... at times need to remind myself I've still got them

Wouldn't buy them today at $13 though .... over valued ...... superior long term returns have been made.,,,,, hot so good now

Suppose I'll hold for another 13 years

And I think they've paid pretty good dividends over the years as well

RBD almost a blue chip ;)

[Beagle]

Some good posts on this thread today.

Beagle talking about a lost decade.. it happened to another great company- Microsoft. After the dot com bubble the SP dropped 40% and then did nothing for 10 years as its earnings growth slowly ate away at its lofty peak P/E of 60.

But if you were a long term investor in Microsoft and bought at the very peak of the dot com bubble and held for 22 years until today you would still have a 400% total return (higher than the S&P 500). If you bought after the dot com bubble and held through the zero movement lost decade all the way until today you would have a 900% return. Pretty good!

Back to FPH. Those that bought at recent highs all good... you may just have to settle for a 400% return over the next couple of decades. And those buying now and around the new lows in the months to come.. it could be very lucrative in the long run.
(This all excludes dividends which is just a bonus for holding)

Not random stock examples, broad index's.

Stretched valuations and affects on subsequent returns.

The Nasdaq peaked in the dot com bubble in 1999 at just under 8000 and is around 14,000 today, a return of just 75% in 23 years.

Cheap valuations and subsequent returns

By way of contrast, using a strategy of buying cheap the S&P 500 bottomed in the late 600's in March 2009 at the height of the GFC and is about 4500 now, nearly 600% in just 13 years.

[Muse]

I'm yet to understand why someone would go on and on about any company they don't own, once you've made your point then go and talk about something you actually own and are passionate about or find more hobbies. Yes Percy I remember clearly the disgraceful behaviour you had to put up with back then and we don't want a repeat.

This got me interested.

Had a poke around the old TRA and HGh posts - very enlightening. Percy (& others) were certainly bang on about those companies early and attacked for it. Which is sort of interesting to a newish member of this forum as I wasnt aware of percy’s early excellent spotting on those companies & his modesty those successful calls. With such a base of adoring shareholders filling both those forums one would be forgiven in thinking its always been that way - but reading through past comments - yikes

[couta1]

Well she's on a roll today, im off to shave the dog down and give him a wash.

[winner69]

This got me interested.

Had a poke around the old TRA and HGh posts - very enlightening. Percy (& others) were certainly bang on about those companies early and attacked for it. Which is sort of interesting to a newish member of this forum as I wasnt aware of percy’s early excellent spotting on those companies & his modesty those successful calls. With such a base of adoring shareholders filling both those forums one would be forgiven in thinking its always been that way - but reading through past comments - yikes

Mind you there were a few who a few years ago (2017) warned that Turners share price approaching $4 was ridiculous .... they were proved right as the share price fell to the 220's to the dismay and pain of many loyal shareholders

One of those 'warned' back then is now one of Turners greatest advocates

Jeez Turners nearly 4 bucks in 2017 .....only about that now .... but buying in the 220's been really good

[winner69]

Well she's on a roll today, im off to shave the dog down and give him a wash.

Bugger -- looks like I've missed the train

No more buying of this blue hip

[percy]

Bugger -- looks like I've missed the train

No more buying of this blue hip

You must have missed an awful lot of FPH trains over the years.
A bad habit to get into.........and costly too......lol.

[Waltzing]

"didnt have this kind of liquidity which instos need for their safety or mandate etc"


had huge liquidity for a period of time and that produced some big profits.

[winner69]

You must have missed an awful lot of FPH trains over the years.
A bad habit to get into.........and costly too......lol.

Ha ha …..but more often than not the train breaks down and needs to return to the station ….and the odd times it ends up in engineers workshop

[RupertBear]

This got me interested.

Had a poke around the old TRA and HGh posts - very enlightening. Percy (& others) were certainly bang on about those companies early and attacked for it. Which is sort of interesting to a newish member of this forum as I wasnt aware of percy’s early excellent spotting on those companies & his modesty those successful calls. With such a base of adoring shareholders filling both those forums one would be forgiven in thinking its always been that way - but reading through past comments - yikes

Percy does very thorough research and from all accounts he has done very well with his picks. He is a quiet achiever who never blows his own trumpet nor puts others down. I have the greatest respect for our Percy, He comes across as a really decent modest man to me :)

[couta1]

Percy does very thorough research and from all accounts he has done very well with his picks. He is a quiet achiever who never blows his own trumpet nor puts others down. I have the greatest respect for our Percy, He comes across as a really decent modest man to me :) The honest and/or modest are the ones that have had the hardest times around here since I've been involved, those qualities seem to be a great threat to the bleating chest beaters who only have success and if they didn't you would never hear about it.

[Maxtrade]

You must have missed an awful lot of FPH trains over the years.
A bad habit to get into.........and costly too......lol.

In your opinion Percy, do you feel the current SP is now an attractive entry point (or top up level), or would you expect to fall further over 2022 before you would consider investing further anything substantial to your holdings?

[winner69]

Jeez Netflix just wiped out all of its gains going back to February 2018.

Obviously not a blue chip ….but shows when things turn anything can happen

[percy]

In your opinion Percy, do you feel the current SP is now an attractive entry point (or top up level), or would you expect to fall further over 2022 before you would consider investing further anything substantial to your holdings?

Wish you had not asked me.
Sorry a number of answers coming up.
For the trust I help out on we are neither a buyer or seller.Core portfolio stock.
If I were buying on my on account I would sit.Old saying sell in May and go away.May is only 10 or 11 days away.Often share prices weaken for a few months.
I would actually be watching the chart.Currently it looks "horrible".Very weak.I use Yahoo Finance charts.I would wait until it turns around and new uptrend starts,even if it means paying a bit higher price.
I have often bought companies such as FPH and Ebos when I have made a good surprise profit,ie a spec comes home,or a company i hold has been taken over,and I am looking to invest in a quality.
This is because I have never known either to be cheap.Quality you have to pay for,and both FPH and EBO are top quality.
I am an retired book seller.If you want sound advice I would ask a sharebroker at either Craigs or Jardens.

[couta1]

Wish you had not asked me.
Sorry a number of answers coming up.
For the trust I help out on we are neither a buyer or seller.Core portfolio stock.
If I were buying on my on account I would sit.Old saying sell in May and go away.May is only 10 or 11 days away.Often share prices weaken for a few months.
I would actually be watching the chart.Currently it looks "horrible".Very weak.I use Yahoo Finance charts.I would wait until it turns around and new uptrend starts,even if it means paying a bit higher price.
I have often bought companies such as FPH and Ebos when I have made a good surprise profit,ie a spec comes home,or a company i hold has been taken over,and I am looking to invest in a quality.
This is because I have never known either to be cheap.Quality you have to pay for,and both FPH and EBO are top quality.
I am an retired book seller.If you want sound advice I would ask a sharebroker at either Craigs or Jardens. Might even go up in May with the forthcoming result along with OCA hopefully. Jardens would probably say buy as they have a TP of around $30, not sure about Craigs.

[winner69]

Seems percy and beagle have been comparing notes

Percy says: If I were buying on my on account I would sit…….I would actually be watching the chart.Currently it looks "horrible".Very weak……….I would wait until it turns around and new uptrend starts,even if it means paying a bit higher price.

Beagle (and others) saying much the same …..and get castigated for saying so


Me …waiting for $16/$18 - the value future cash flows point to reasonable longbterm return

[couta1]

Seems percy and beagle have been comparing notes

Percy says: If I were buying on my on account I would sit…….I would actually be watching the chart.Currently it looks "horrible".Very weak……….I would wait until it turns around and new uptrend starts,even if it means paying a bit higher price.

Beagle (and others) saying much the same …..and get castigated for saying so


Me …waiting for $16/$18 - the value future cash flows point to reasonable longbterm return Completely different animals though, momentum trader vs long term investor. Good thing is for those of us with entry points higher than current price with a long term mindset we can forget about the chart just like with PAZ and OCA, the squiggly worm has no insight 3-5 yrs from now.

[newbieinvestor]

Wish you had not asked me.
Sorry a number of answers coming up.
For the trust I help out on we are neither a buyer or seller.Core portfolio stock.
If I were buying on my on account I would sit.Old saying sell in May and go away.May is only 10 or 11 days away.Often share prices weaken for a few months.
I would actually be watching the chart.Currently it looks "horrible".Very weak.I use Yahoo Finance charts.I would wait until it turns around and new uptrend starts,even if it means paying a bit higher price.
I have often bought companies such as FPH and Ebos when I have made a good surprise profit,ie a spec comes home,or a company i hold has been taken over,and I am looking to invest in a quality.
This is because I have never known either to be cheap.Quality you have to pay for,and both FPH and EBO are top quality.
I am an retired book seller.If you want sound advice I would ask a sharebroker at either Craigs or Jardens.

Very Happy that Maxtrade asked Percy that question, given he is modest. :t_up:

[RupertBear]

Seems percy and beagle have been comparing notes

Percy says: If I were buying on my on account I would sit…….I would actually be watching the chart.Currently it looks "horrible".Very weak……….I would wait until it turns around and new uptrend starts,even if it means paying a bit higher price.

Beagle (and others) saying much the same …..and get castigated for saying so


Me …waiting for $16/$18 - the value future cash flows point to reasonable longbterm return

Some times its not what has been said but how it has been said that makes a difference to our impression of a post.

I am a long term holder of FPH and I have done very well from it. My biggest mistakes have been when I have sold a few thinking it was running too hot, only to watch it keep going up and up. As Percy has said FPH, EBO and MFT have always been expensive but for me thats a price I am prepared to pay for a quality stock.

I agree with others that the chart isnt looking great so I will also be looking for the tide to turn. That being said any drop below $20 will be buying opportunity for me.

[winner69]

Ha ha …..but more often than not the train breaks down and needs to return to the station ….and the odd times it ends up in engineers workshop

Engine running out of steam ,,,,, returning to the station?

More coal needed

[couta1]

Engine running out of steam ,,,,, returning to the station?

More coal needed Doesn't need coal mate, its Nuclear powered.

[winner69]

Week close 2229

Another DOWN week

[nztx]

Week close 2229

Another DOWN week


I thought you said we'd found the bottom ? ;)

[RupertBear]

Week close 2229

Another DOWN week

Its just an aberrant blip Winner, it will be back UP again next week - no worries :p

[winner69]

I thought you said we'd found the bottom ? ;)

Train left the station but ran out of steam

Back to station …maybe even off to engineering for some repairs

[couta1]

Week close 2229

Another DOWN week Just keep chanting $50 in 5 yrs (Might even be 4 yrs)

[winner69]

Just keep chanting $50 in 5 yrs (Might even be 4)


Surely not 4 bucks in 5 yrs …..that’s an extreme call

[couta1]

Surely not 4 bucks in 5 yrs …..that’s an extreme call Fixed dont want to attract white noise. Lol

[alokdhir]

FPH may soon start looking attractive to many ...

1. SP down a lot discounting almost worst case 2023 reset or new base year eps of 57 cents implying a revenue or sales of $ 1500 Mil

2. NZD tanking and will continue on its downward part with US rates more likely to rise faster then NZ

3. FPH demand is more inelastic and more inflation proof as hospitals will buy irrespective of market conditions

4. NZ bond yields are very close to top of this cycle ...max 4% most likely ...so as per experts already in the SP ...just a wee bit fine tuning only left ahead
I am waiting for W69 signal ....though he is very optimistic of it reaching $ 18 ...maybe $ 20 will be my start of top up from some dead stocks I hold ...:D

PS : Someone here said market is very forward looking and maybe looking much further then we think about FPH opportunity in such difficult stock picking times ahead ...so kept my start of $ 20 ...try to get before W69 ...maybe in 5 years it wont matter I paid little extra then him :p

[percy]

I think he will miss the FPH train yet again...lol.

[nztx]

Train left the station but ran out of steam

Back to station …maybe even off to engineering for some repairs



probably a long reverse into the Repair yards or not ? :)

[percy]

From today's Chris Lee news letter.Market News:
Health – investors in the likes of F&P Healthcare, Ebos, Infratil and perhaps Ryman should be pleased with news last Wednesday night that one of the world’s largest hedge funds (leveraged investors) is trying to buy Ramsay Health in Australia.

KKR has built deep investment respect over many decades, and it is significant that they are focused on investment in the health sector, deeming Australia big enough to pursue exposures in and having a suitable demographic profile to spur growth in the health sector.

Ramsay Health share price jumped from AUD$70 to AUD$80 last week, setting a new high point, after a long stable period for the share price since 2015. You’d get short odds on the share price moving higher now that strong players are competing to buy the business.

If you combine the massive health spend commitments from government during Covid responses and the ageing demographic around much of the world, you’d be hard pressed not to conclude that an investment exposure to the health sector is wise.

I do wonder whether the retirement accommodation providers should be adding more services (vertical expansion) to their hospital units (scanning, minor surgery, respiratory units, physio, etc) or leasing space to the likes of Infratil subsidiaries or Ramsay to provide this.

[winner69]

Kingfish lamenting a terrible March quarter

And they remind us that sometimes the market is a voting machine but eventually will 'weigh up' in due course. Funniest update I've read for a while.

AT least they remain totally confident about FPH - it appears as if they have increased their holding from December quarter - another 160,000 shares and the most they've held for some time.

Our man Benjamin is always right so all hunky dory in the world of FPH

[bull....]

think they did the same strategy with a2

[winner69]

think they did the same strategy with a2


…and still hoping for the ‘weighing’ to kick in.

[newbieinvestor]

…and still hoping for the ‘weighing’ to kick in.

so at what range are you backing up your truck W69.... $18?

[alokdhir]

No sir ...they were smarter then most here ...they reduced position just before the famous mid December Halt of ATM ...think they sold above $ 14 ...Also they commented about ATM strategy taking more time then they thought before ....

FPH is their most high conviction growth story from NZX ....so I am not surprised that they adding to it

" think they did the same strategy with a2 "

[Beagle]

Kingfish lamenting a terrible March quarter

And they remind us that sometimes the market is a voting machine but eventually will 'weigh up' in due course. Funniest update I've read for a while.

AT least they remain totally confident about FPH - it appears as if they have increased their holding from December quarter - another 160,000 shares and the most they've held for some time.

Our man Benjamin is always right so all hunky dory in the world of FPH

Ironic they mention Ben Graham when he was ostensibly the father of "value investing" something Sam Dickie would do well to reflect upon.
https://www.aaii.com/files/journal/pdf/value-investing-a-look-at-the-benjamin-graham-approach.pdf
Some good stuff in here for those who haven't been so fortunate to read his book.

As many on here know, I have my own version of Ben Graham's valuation model replacing 2g with 1g and based on prospective earnings not historical earnings. If FPH can continue to grow at its long run average then it would be a good buy at about 20 - 22 times next years earnings but I see its priced at 38 times FY23 earnings so there's clearly still a VERY long way to go in this downtrend before it represents attractive value. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/

Extract Graham was a strong believer in defensive investing and protecting a portfolio against errors in judgment. For that reason,
he placed a heavy emphasis on diversification. He recommended that individuals purchase a minimum of 10 different issues and a maximum of 30

[alokdhir]

W69 said many cyclical stocks have highest PE at the low of the cycle ...which makes sense as then its up time and they end up with lowest PE on top of cycle . FPH is going thru a normalisation cycle and will end up with exorbitant looking PE for the short term as it will be at its low of current cycle .

Most investors see much beyond just next year earnings and also keep in mind what ahead in next 10 years in case of long term growth companies .

Ascribing PE to FPH based on lowest time of normalisation is having a closed mind to its future prospects . Maybe longer term investment ideas are more difficult to grasp for shorter term players . But all types of investors have a place in the markets and almost all are right in their own ways

Now will FPH go to $ 16 then to $ 50 in 5 years or just to $ 20 then to $ 50 in 5 years ? Why it should matter so much when almost all are agreeing its most likely going to $ 50 in less then 5 years .

[couta1]

W69 said many cyclical stocks have highest PE at the low of the cycle ...which makes sense as then its up time and they end up with lowest PE on top of cycle . FPH is going thru a normalisation cycle and will end up with exorbitant looking PE for the short term as it will be at its low of current cycle .

Most investors see much beyond just next year earnings and also keep in mind what ahead in next 10 years in case of long term growth companies .

Ascribing PE to FPH based on lowest time of normalisation is having a closed mind to its future prospects . Maybe longer term investment ideas are more difficult to grasp for shorter term players . But all types of investors have a place in the markets and almost all are right in their own ways

Now will FPH go to $ 16 then to $ 50 in 5 years or just to $ 20 then to $ 50 in 5 years ? Why it should matter so much when almost all are agreeing its most likely going to $ 50 in less then 5 years . Yep $50 is the target but in the mean time we no doubt will continue to get intermittent " White Noise Barking" have the shock collars on hand.

[winner69]

hey alokdhir - you cant call FPH a cyclical and a 'normalisation cycle' isn't something a true 'cyclical' goes through ..... so my rule of thumb re high PEs at the low doesn't apply here.

None of us would want to see FPH become a cyclical would we - ie profits rising and falling quite a lot at regular intervals - like every 6 to 7 years

[alokdhir]

hey alokdhir - you cant call FPH a cyclical and a 'normalisation cycle' isn't something a true 'cyclical' goes through ..... so my rule of thumb re high PEs at the low doesn't apply here.

None of us would want to see FPH become a cyclical would we - ie profits rising and falling quite a lot at regular intervals - like every 6 to 7 years

I had to compare with your cyclical stock theory as FPH is going thru that kind of phenomenon ....It did 56% growth in one year instead of previous trend of just 10% ....now its normalising ....which makes it replicate cyclical stocks ...That was the intention ...so mentioned how market sees current PEs of some stocks

[bull....]

Yep $50 is the target but in the mean time we no doubt will continue to get intermittent " White Noise Barking" have the shock collars on hand.

its a high pe stock being re-rated down on slower earnings outlook
Nasal high flow treatment needed for some of the sh.. on here

[couta1]

its a high pe stock being re-rated down on slower earnings outlook
Nasal high flow treatment needed for some of the sh.. on here High compared to what, not for its sector and its only a temporal issue, 700 million being spent on expansion plans.

[bull....]

High compared to what, not for its sector and its only a temporal issue, 700 million being spent on expansion plans.

reality and the sector is overpriced , to much covid premium still in there. they would have to grow earnings heaps to warrant $50 valuation in a rising rate environment

[couta1]

reality and the sector is overpriced , to much covid premium still in there. they would have to grow earnings heaps to warrant $50 valuation in a rising rate environment You are a trader with short term vision (Goes with the territory) you have to think 3-5 yrs ahead with this now, below pre covid price now by the way, you don't spend that sort of money on expansion unless your sure the growth and demand is/or will be there.

[Arbroath]

You are a trader with short term vision (Goes with the territory) you have to think 3-5 yrs ahead with this now, below pre covid price now by the way, you don't spend that sort of money on expansion unless your sure the growth and demand is/or will be there.

FPH is a truely fantastic company which always seems quite expensive compared to many lesser quality companies.

The only issue for me is what is an appropriate valuation to start buying as I have a 10-year view of it but equally don’t want to pay $22 for a large position if it heads to $15. To be clear I’m saying it will go to $15 but none of us know the future. The Fed might make mistakes with rate hikes and silly things might happen. I will be buying in tranches over 2022-2023 and hope to get an average price sub $20.

[alokdhir]

When the full year results will come then more info will come out about whats ahead ...

IMO market will be surprised by higher margins then what its anticipating ....I will confirm my full year estimates after 28th April when march exports data is released

Most likely they will do sales of $ 1710 and NPAT of more then $ 400-410 Million...giving them EPS of 70-72 Cents ....Market consensus at the moment is 65 Cents !!!

I think past full year results view will improve about future thus will SP ... So buying opportunity at present may not last forever .

But then timing the market is just like gambling ...sometimes right !

[couta1]

When the full year results will come then more info will come out about whats ahead ...

IMO market will be surprised by higher margins then what its anticipating ....I will confirm my full year estimates after 28th April when march exports data is released

Most likely they will do sales of $ 1710 and NPAT of more then $ 400-410 Million...giving them EPS of 70-72 Cents ....Market consensus at the moment is 65 Cents !!!

I think past full year results view will improve about future thus will SP ... So buying opportunity at present may not last forever .

But then timing the market is just like gambling ...sometimes right ! Yep I reckon the market has way overreacted in taking the sp to where it is now, back to $25 or so after the result.

[Beagle]

W69 said many cyclical stocks have highest PE at the low of the cycle ...which makes sense as then its up time and they end up with lowest PE on top of cycle . FPH is going thru a normalisation cycle and will end up with exorbitant looking PE for the short term as it will be at its low of current cycle .

Most investors see much beyond just next year earnings and also keep in mind what ahead in next 10 years in case of long term growth companies .

Ascribing PE to FPH based on lowest time of normalisation is having a closed mind to its future prospects . Maybe longer term investment ideas are more difficult to grasp for shorter term players . But all types of investors have a place in the markets and almost all are right in their own ways

Now will FPH go to $ 16 then to $ 50 in 5 years or just to $ 20 then to $ 50 in 5 years ? Why it should matter so much when almost all are agreeing its most likely going to $ 50 in less then 5 years .

I think its crystal clear in FY23 they are still going to enjoy significant tailwinds from Covid. In light of that I think 38 times Covid assisted FY23 earnings is far too expensive. The boys at Fisher funds seem to like scoring "own goals". Netflix their latest and down 38% in just the last week.
Just as well FPH haven't announced a slowdown like Netflix just have...yet.

[couta1]

PE ratios blah blah, try explaining XRO's one in relation to its sp.

[winner69]

Carnage on US markets

Can FPH hold 2000 ....most important question.

[alokdhir]

Carnage on US markets

Can FPH hold 2000 ....most important question.

Does it really matter ? lol

[winner69]

Does it really matter ? lol

For long term purposes ...not really ....But for new opportunities purposes maybe yes .

[alokdhir]

For long term purposes ...not really ....But for new opportunities purposes maybe yes .

Currently Voting machine stocks doing well ...but sometime in future all will get " Weighed " also ....Prime example is KFL 25 cents over NAV and holding strong while what it holds FPH goes down everyday :D

[couta1]

Does it really matter ? lol Only to the non holders and "White Noise Brigade".

[RTM]

Does it really matter ? lol

Yep…it matters to me.
I am keen to add FPH to our portfolio, but am waiting waiting waiting to see where SP bottoms out.

[alokdhir]

Yep…it matters to me.
I am keen to add FPH to our portfolio, but am waiting waiting waiting to see where SP bottoms out.

Soon your patience will be rewarded IMO

[Beagle]

PE ratios blah blah, try explaining XRO's one in relation to its sp.

There's a great reckoning just beginning to play out affecting technology, SAAS and other companies on extreme metrics or not profit at all. Please do yourself a big favor and subscribe to SKY T.V. and watch a lot of CNBC (the best business channel in the world, channel 91). I feel this would be extremely beneficial to you.

FPH is a very good quality company and when it gets back to sensible metrics based on unassisted Covid earnings I will probably buy some.

[couta1]

There's a great reckoning just beginning to play out affecting technology, SAAS and other companies on extreme metrics or not profit at all. Please do yourself a big favor and subscribe to SKY T.V. and watch a lot of CNBC (the best business channel in the world, channel 91). I feel this would be extremely beneficial to you.

FPH is a fine company and when it gets back to sensible metrics based on unassisted Covid earnings I will probably buy some. Talking to an old friend a few weeks ago said the best thing he had done to improve his life was to give his TV sets away 5 yrs ago, sounds like good advice.

[Habits]

And did you follow the advice yourself mr C

[couta1]

And did you follow the advice yourself mr C To a large degree, we watch about 2-3 hrs of TV a week but very rarely any news channels, my wife likes the repair shop and travel guides so could be a battle to ditch completely. Lol

[winner69]

Market still in 'voting mode' with FPH

I reckon the 'weighing' will balance out at $17-$18

And then work it's way up to $29-$30 over next 5 years

[couta1]

Market still in 'voting mode' with FPH

I reckon the 'weighing' will balance out at $17-$18

And then work it's way up to $29-$30 over next 5 years I think you meant to say work its way up to $29-$30 over the next couple of yrs on route to $50 in 5 yrs, probably just a typo.

[RTM]

If I look at a 5 year graph...and assume growth at more or less what it was pre COVID, then price today would/could be more or less in the $20-22 area. PE now 23.97. Not shockingly high given continued growth, even if normalised to pre -COVID levels.
Although COVID has distorted the growth, it is unlikely that all that business will be lost should COVID disappear (unlikely).
Nearly talking myself into getting a starting position.

13740

[winner69]

Seeing Kingfish love Benjamin Graham they maybe should take heed of what Ben said '"Operations for profit should be based not on optimism, but on arithmetic."

[couta1]

Seeing Kingfish love Benjamin Graham they maybe should take heed of what Ben said '"Operations for profit should be based not on optimism, but on arithmetic." I think you meant to say "Operations for profit should be based not on arithmetic but on growth potential" Ben behind the times aye.

[winner69]

Alokdhir - March export data didn't too bad

Updated your model?

But couta says arithmetic doesn't matter anyway

[Beagle]

Market still in 'voting mode' with FPH

I reckon the 'weighing' will balance out at $17-$18

And then work it's way up to $29-$30 over next 5 years

I agree, those numbers make sense to me. The opening PE would be somewhat realistic, (I would prefer it lower), and then add about 12% per annum average compounding growth.

I'll wait for a proper confirmation the downtrend is over, break back up through 100 day MA and put on a half sized position and the 200 day MA put on the rest. Not worried if I miss the bottom because in trying to pick the bottom one is very unlikely to come out smelling like roses ;)

[couta1]

Traders going to make a killing on buying at current price and price on upcoming results day i reckon, its currently priced for Armageddon which isnt in process to the best of my knowledge.

[alokdhir]

Traders going to make a killing on buying at current price and price on upcoming results day i reckon, its currently priced for Armageddon which isnt in process to the best of my knowledge.

March Exports data is out and its not bad from FPH perspective ...they did almost similar like last march 2021 sales ....Final estimate for month is $ 175 Mil

Based on all ...my latest estimates for Full year results 2022 are sales of $ 1710 and NPAT more then $ 400 Mil ...400-410 range

I think FPH will bottom out before results ...so another 2 weeks of opportunity

[couta1]

March Exports data is out and its not bad from FPH perspective ...they did almost similar like last march 2021 sales ....Final estimate for month is $ 175 Mil

Based on all ...my latest estimates for Full year results 2022 are sales of $ 1710 and NPAT more then $ 400 Mil ...400-410 range

I think FPH will bottom out before results ...so another 2 weeks of opportunity Its being pulled down by the Aussie punters (Check out the morning trading on the NZX and the drop on ASX open and volume difference) the NZX alone wouldn't have taken it to these levels.

[winner69]

I’m assuming that they’ll piss analysts and the market off by playing the no guidance trick….. No guidance provided for the 2023 financial year. With the ongoing uncertainties blah blah blah the company is not providing guidance for the 2023 financial year.

[couta1]

I’m assuming that they’ll piss analysts and the market off by playing the no guidance trick….. No guidance provided for the 2023 financial year. With the ongoing uncertainties blah blah blah the company is not providing guidance for the 2023 financial year. No guidance much better than missing provided guidance, A2 could have learnt a thing or two about this.

[winner69]

No guidance much better than missing provided guidance, A2 could have learnt a thing or two about this.

No company guidance means analyst consensus becomes ‘guidance’ ….Miss that and all bad happens eh …like a few weeks ago eh

[winner69]

March Exports data is out and its not bad from FPH perspective ...they did almost similar like last march 2021 sales ....Final estimate for month is $ 175 Mil

Based on all ...my latest estimates for Full year results 2022 are sales of $ 1710 and NPAT more then $ 400 Mil ...400-410 range

I think FPH will bottom out before results ...so another 2 weeks of opportunity

That’s good news alokdhir

Last few months been OKish ……so H123 won’t be down 30% down on pcp like H222 was …..that’s a huge drop in sales eh.

[couta1]

No company guidance means analyst consensus becomes ‘guidance’ ….Miss that and all bad happens eh …like a few weeks ago eh Whoopee missed by a whole 3% yet the same analysts still have an avg tp of $27.83, market must be nuttier than the analysts. Lol

[alokdhir]

No company guidance means analyst consensus becomes ‘guidance’ ….Miss that and all bad happens eh …like a few weeks ago eh

When now company will exceed NPAT consensus then what u think will happen ?

Analyst consensus is $ 365 Mil NPAT .....IMO it will be over $ 400 Mil ...as margins will still be better then analyst's consensus . Last year margins were 26.6 % and this year they can 24-25% ...Analysts are sitting on 22 % .

Also they just provided revenue update not NPAT ...while saying same like last year that elevated freight costs will impact GP margins by 2.5% which they said last year too yet came with higher margins ...attributing that to costs benefits of higher volumes

I am expecting higher NPAT and margins then consensus estimates ....lets wait and see on 26th May

PS : Keep in mind depressed NZD benefits for last half too will add to better margins

[winner69]

When now company will exceed NPAT consensus then what u think will happen ?

Analyst consensus is $ 365 Mil NPAT .....IMO it will be over $ 400 Mil ...as margins will still be better then analyst's consensus . Last year margins were 26.6 % and this year they can 24-25% ...Analysts are sitting on 22 % .

Also they just provided revenue update not NPAT ...while saying same like last year that elevated freight costs will impact GP margins by 2.5% which they said last year too yet came with higher margins ...attributing that to costs benefits of higher volumes

I am expecting higher NPAT and margins then consensus estimates ....lets wait and see on 26th May

PS : Keep in mind depressed NZD benefits for last half too will add to better margins

Consensus before the bad news re sales was F22 NPAT $406m .... reduced to $365m as you say

Maybe $406m would be a surprise ...market reaction .... possibly muted

It's what they say about the future or maybe giving some idea about whats happened in April/May that will matter

[bull....]

hammertime .... are they having trouble getting parts ?

[Beagle]

Consensus before the bad news re sales was F22 NPAT $406m .... reduced to $365m as you say

Maybe $406m would be a surprise ...market reaction .... possibly muted

It's what they say about the future or maybe giving some idea about whats happened in April/May that will matter

Dead right mate and we're seeing a lot of muted outlook statements in the US from Covid beneficiary companies as anyone who's been watching the reporting season on CNBC unfold will know. e.g. Netflix was all the rage in Covid but with those tailwinds now abating is now down a whopping 71% !

[alokdhir]

hammertime .... are they having trouble getting parts ?

Normally they hold large inventories as very high margin business and low volumes ...So parts shortage !!!!

But when sentiment is down then any bad news works well ...lol

[nztx]

Is down still the new up for FPH ? the slope looks consistent :)

[winner69]

Falling below $20 on ASX seems to have spooked the Aussies ...... could expect more selling down from here

[winner69]

Whoopee missed by a whole 3% yet the same analysts still have an avg tp of $27.83, market must be nuttier than the analysts. Lol

and that miss by 3% has seen the share price fall by 24% (so far)

[couta1]

and that miss by 3% has seen the share price fall by 24% (so far) Well you know it comes down to punters munching on their bowl of cornflakes (Kelloggs of course) whilst watching fake media news and they get spooked and do a fear sell, nothing much more to it.

[Rawz]

and that miss by 3% has seen the share price fall by 24% (so far)

Priced for perfection.. must be perfect.

[bull....]

are barramundi holding the price up ?

[couta1]

are barramundi holding the price up ? Are you a blond haired bull?

[winner69]

No guidance much better than missing provided guidance, A2 could have learnt a thing or two about this.

Talking of A2 there market cap down about $12 billion since August 2020

FPH market cap down $9 billion in same time .... yep $9 billion

Not much in it ..... FPH catching up fast in this race

[couta1]

Talking of A2 there market cap down about $12 billion since August 2020

FPH market cap down $9 billion in same time .... yep $9 billion

Not much in it ..... FPH catching up fast in this race Difference is A2 will never get back to its former highs whereas FPH will sail past them in due course.

[winner69]

Big rally on the NZX today

[Beagle]

Big rally on the NZX today

Sure was despite the biggest company falling another ~ 2%.

Even OCA went up.

[alokdhir]

At todays close ....FPH no longer No 1 company by market cap ...it got replaced by MEL today ....

For how long ? Maybe W69 and Mr B will know better ...:p

[alokdhir]

Big rally on the NZX today

FPH and EBO didn't participate in rally while so called another " Covid beneficiary " MFT did ..up 2.9% ...almost 60% volume was traded in closing auction ...seems like fund buying ...maybe taking advantage of NZD below 65

[couta1]

At todays close ....FPH no longer No 1 company by market cap ...it got replaced by MEL today ....

For how long ? Maybe W69 and Mr B will know better ...:p Still makes the WHS look like an insignificant minnow though.:cool:

[Habits]

Still makes the WHS look like an insignificant minnow though.:cool:


Off topic comment couta 1.

[Muse]

FPH and EBO didn't participate in rally while so called another " Covid beneficiary " MFT did ..up 2.9% ...almost 60% volume was traded in closing auction ...seems like fund buying ...maybe taking advantage of NZD below 65

below 65c?? I missed that...wow

[couta1]

Off topic comment couta 1. Well thank you Mr thread policeman for pointing that out, you had better go and check all the other threads to see if it hasnt occurred elsewhere. Lol

[alokdhir]

below 65c?? I missed that...wow

https://www.dailyfx.com/nzd-usd

[winner69]

US markets on fire ….. growth stocks back in favour


Should beca boomer of a day for FPH….. bright end tona miserable month for the share price

[winner69]

https://www.dailyfx.com/nzd-usd

Watched that tick over força few minutes …NZD went down even more

Not good for the country though

[bull....]

US markets on fire ….. growth stocks back in favour


Should beca boomer of a day for FPH….. bright end tona miserable month for the share price

kingfish be happy

[bull....]

:scared::scared: price cant even get up , thats a big worry when you cant get it up

[couta1]

:scared::scared: price cant even get up , thats a big worry when you cant get it up Kiwis still eating their cornflakes and haven't realised the US was actually up last night, Aussies just getting up so havent had their cornflakes yet.

[SPC]

You won't get it up walking ahead of the herd. You need to walk behind 😉.
Better to keep well clear of the herd at present.

[couta1]

You won't get it up walking ahead of the herd. You need to walk behind .
Better to keep well clear of the herd at present. Its not a herd, its a whole bunch of cornflake eating reef fish getting psyched out by the big fish bot machines on both sides of the market mopping up more cheap shares.

[bull....]

no wonder fph getting smashed resmed just released quarter results margins were crushed down 57%

https://cloud.weblink.com.au/smallcaps/announcement.aspx?articleID=264832

[winner69]

no wonder fph getting smashed resmed just released quarter results margins were crushed down 57%

https://cloud.weblink.com.au/smallcaps/announcement.aspx?articleID=264832


Resumed seem to be enjoying strong revenue growth

FPH revenues 6 months to March down 30% on pcp ….hmmm

[Ferg]

resmed just released quarter results margins were crushed down 57%

Slightly misleading bull. From the article, margins were 57%:
"Gross margin contracted 140 bps to 56.8%; non-GAAP gross margin contracted 150 bps to 58.1%"

[couta1]

Resumed seem to be enjoying strong revenue growth

FPH revenues 6 months to March down 30% on pcp ….hmmm Resmed pretty impressive report overall, just a few wks to wait for a pretty good one from FPH as well (Better than the market has priced anyway)

[couta1]

Slightly misleading bull. From the article, margins were 57%:
"Gross margin contracted 140 bps to 56.8%; non-GAAP gross margin contracted 150 bps to 58.1%" Bull loves to mislead and just run around being a misery guts and downramp on multiple threads, he cant influence the market but can put punters off their path if they don't have strong conviction.

[bull....]

irrespective of if you think the bold headline was mis - leading it is in my view pretty clear that fph will be having margin contraction too due to the same inflationary factors as resmed

[iceman]

irrespective of if you think the bold headline was mis - leading it is in my view pretty clear that fph will be having margin contraction too due to the same inflationary factors as resmed

bull it's got nothing to do with what anyone "thinks". To say "margins were crushed down 57%' IS misleading

[alokdhir]

irrespective of if you think the bold headline was mis - leading it is in my view pretty clear that fph will be having margin contraction too due to the same inflationary factors as resmed

Only to update ...FPH net margins were 22 % pre covid ....went to 26.6 % due to volume cost benefits ...this year maybe 24.5 % ...still healthy .

They are getting some favourable winds too ...ie NZD below 65 ....why only highlight negatives .

I agree all will face inflationary pressures and also FPH is still trying to find its feet . But to think business in distress or downturn is not factually correct .

FPH will take few more months to reverse its SP downtrend when they can surely form a base from where they can confidently grow ahead ...2023 is tough year for FPH SP ...so we long term holders will bear the pain and all the advises of well wishers here :p

[winner69]

Slightly misleading bull. From the article, margins were 57%:
"Gross margin contracted 140 bps to 56.8%; non-GAAP gross margin contracted 150 bps to 58.1%"

Last month FPH made mention of a gross margin adversely impacted by approximately 250 basis points.

Jeez if 150 bps sees margins 'crushed' wonder what bull will describe a 250 bps margin impact

[alokdhir]

Last month FPH made mention of a gross margin adversely impacted by approximately 250 basis points.

Jeez if 150 bps sees margins 'crushed' wonder what bull will describe a 250 bps margin impact

DECIMATED ....lol

[bull....]

see the aussies think resmed margins were crushed too

share price being pulverised as we type down 6%

[alokdhir]

see the aussies think resmed margins were crushed too

share price being pulverised as we type down 6%

Thats because Q3 EPS consensus was $ 1.44 and actuals come as $ 1.22 ....IMO

[couta1]

Aussies have had their cornflakes and decided life ain't so bad today so up she goes. Lol

[winner69]

Does FPH need chips?

From a report on resmed - However, chief executive Mick Farrell told analysts on a call this morning that chip shortages were the “number one bottleneck” for the business,

[alokdhir]

Does FPH need chips?

From a report on resmed - However, chief executive Mick Farrell told analysts on a call this morning that chip shortages were the “number one bottleneck” for the business,

They do but much lesser then RMD ...

[winner69]

Aussies have had their cornflakes and decided life ain't so bad today so up she goes. Lol

Might even get back above the $20 mark

[alokdhir]

Might even get back above the $20 mark

Sentiment is so poor that it will need some real hopeful commentary of future from company at results time to reverse its downtrend ...all rallies will be sold into ..IMO

[bull....]

intel earnings call this morning they say chip issues will extend easily into 24

[alokdhir]

intel earnings call this morning they say chip issues will extend easily into 24

Seeing how FPH managed enormous demand in 2021 FY ...they actually did 56% extra in short time ...not easy for a manufacturing company to ramp up production in very difficult times , I think they can make this difficulty into opportunity too

Also as a practice they carry good inventory levels of finished stock .

They mentioned in last update shortage of OSA devices is hampering their mask sales ...as they not big on OSA devices but sell masks to be used with

" In our Homecare product group, growth in sales of our OSA masks is currently tracking above our first half growth rate despite supply constraints of treatment hardware in the market. "

[BlackPeter]

intel earnings call this morning they say chip issues will extend easily into 24

Interesting fact ... most impacted by the chip shortage are car manufactureres - and the funny thing is, their earnings are the highest they have been in a decade or so (O.K. - just looking at Volkswagen - 2012 was still better ..., but for Daimler was 2021 a dream year better than anything before - not just, but as well thanks to the chip shortage).

Why? Well, quite easy if you take off your black glasses ... yes, lower volumes, but hey - look at the margins.

I suppose FPH might be in a similar situation.

Thanks for posting something really bullish ... or was this a mistake?

[bull....]

Interesting fact ... most impacted by the chip shortage are car manufactureres - and the funny thing is, their earnings are the highest they have been in a decade or so (O.K. - just looking at Volkswagen - 2012 was still better ..., but for Daimler was 2021 a dream year better than anything before - not just, but as well thanks to the chip shortage).

Why? Well, quite easy if you take off your black glasses ... yes, lower volumes, but hey - look at the margins.

I suppose FPH might be in a similar situation.

Thanks for posting something really bullish ... or was this a mistake?

there all making hay because of unprecedented demand but dont worry the central banks are going to stop this

[BlackPeter]

there all making hay because of unprecedented demand but dont worry the central banks are going to stop this

One of your better days, is it? Go out, enjoy the sunshine, take lots of deep breaths and than start thinking ...

If you would be governer of some RB (god forbid ...) and you know that your country will go bankrupt if you push up the interest rates to high. What would you do :scared:?

OK - I should probably ask what would a responsible and sensible RB governor do? Not likely that they push too hard on consume either, isn't it?

Back to FPH, though .... lucky us they don't produce consumer goods but needs based medical devices, and the need for these is (after a temporary deflation of the COVID hill) sustainably increasing. More fat people, more old people, less healthy people every year. Ask the fast food producers. Isn't this a sunny scenario :t_up:

[dobby41]

Interesting fact ... most impacted by the chip shortage are car manufactureres - and the funny thing is, their earnings are the highest they have been in a decade or so (O.K. - just looking at Volkswagen - 2012 was still better ..., but for Daimler was 2021 a dream year better than anything before - not just, but as well thanks to the chip shortage).

And Ford loses $3.1bil in the 1st quarter - loses due to investments and chip issues.

[bull....]

One of your better days, is it? Go out, enjoy the sunshine, take lots of deep breaths and than start thinking ...

If you would be governer of some RB (god forbid ...) and you know that your country will go bankrupt if you push up the interest rates to high. What would you do :scared:?

OK - I should probably ask what would a responsible and sensible RB governor do? Not likely that they push too hard on consume either, isn't it?

Back to FPH, though .... lucky us they don't produce consumer goods but needs based medical devices, and the need for these is (after a temporary deflation of the COVID hill) sustainably increasing. More fat people, more old people, less healthy people every year. Ask the fast food producers. Isn't this a sunny scenario :t_up:

your going off on some wild tangents , inflation is way worse than a recession and in fact volker only tamed wild inflation by causing a recession.
anyway back to fph if inflation is let go wild fph margins will keep getting crushed because they cannot keep raising prices of there products forever to stay ahead of inflation input costs . i suggest some light economics reading in the sun for you on this subject :)

[BlackPeter]

And Ford loses $3.1bil in the 1st quarter - loses due to investments and chip issues.

To be honest - I don't really monitor the US automotive market ... did they evolve much since the Ford T? I understand they mainly sell dick extenders and gas guzzlers to the average Trump voter.

You need to check real car makers ... Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen ... they are creaming it.

[BlackPeter]

your going off on some wild tangents , inflation is way worse than a recession and in fact volker only tamed wild inflation by causing a recession.
anyway back to fph if inflation is let go wild fph margins will keep getting crushed because they cannot keep raising prices of there products forever to stay ahead of inflation input costs . i suggest some light economics reading in the sun for you on this subject :)

Look - it feels your typical "research" resembles looking for big containers with black sludge ... and than smear this stuff against any stock you happen to come across. Not sure how to describe this activity in a PC way, but it certainly does not demonstrate any understanding of economics or business analysis.

Neither does your recent post - just look at your comparison of inflation and recession. I hope you understand that one is a measure for the devaluation of money and the other is a term to describe an economy with a receding GDP. A recession may or may not be triggered by high inflation (or by many other causes) ... comparing both is absolutly meaningless.

Back to FPH ... apart from not even professional economists knowing how the inflation rate will develop from here (yes, they have some forecasts which are typically either too low or too high but always wrong) - some minor research will show you that companies producing useful stuff people need typically move with less harm through inflationary periods rather than companies producing discretionary stuff or just promising growth.

FPH produces useful stuff people need ... and when they need it they won't haggle for the price. If you are not sure, just stop breathing and wait a minute or two and now imagine haggling for what your next breath is worth to you.

Relax ... remember to start breathing again - hey for you it is still free :) - and find some sunrays ... they will be good for you and might help to fight the black clouds which often seem to control your posts :).

[couta1]

Look - it feels your typical "research" resembles looking for big containers with black sludge ... and than smear this stuff against any stock you happen to come across. Not sure how to describe this activity in a PC way, but it certainly does not demonstrate any understanding of economics or business analysis.

Neither does your recent post - just look at your comparison of inflation and recession. I hope you understand that one is a measure for the devaluation of money and the other is a term to describe an economy with a receding GDP. A recession may or may not be triggered by high inflation (or by many other causes) ... comparing both is absolutly meaningless.

Back to FPH ... apart from not even professional economists knowing how the inflation rate will develop from here (yes, they have some forecasts which are typically either too low or too high but always wrong) - some minor research will show you that companies producing useful stuff people need typically move with less harm through inflationary periods rather than companies producing discretionary stuff or just promising growth.

FPH produces useful stuff people need ... and when they need it they won't haggle for the price. If you are not sure, just stop breathing and wait a minute or two and now imagine haggling for what your next breath is worth to you.

Relax ... remember to start breathing again - hey for you it is still free :) - and find some sunrays ... they will be good for you and might help to fight the black clouds which often seem to control your posts :). Some good helpful advice in there for the the biggest doom n gloom merchant in town, could I just add that a course of St John's wort may also be beneficial.

[SPC]

Any bull who is one step ahead of the herd has clearly lost his calling.

[winner69]

....
Relax ... remember to start breathing again - hey for you it is still free :) - and find some sunrays ... they will be good for you and might help to fight the black clouds which often seem to control your posts :).

Talk about a red rag to a bull ...... you'll possibly get your commuppance soon.

[Bjauck]

To be honest - I don't really monitor the US automotive market ... did they evolve much since the Ford T? I understand they mainly sell dick extenders and gas guzzlers to the average Trump voter.

You need to check real car makers ... Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen ... they are creaming it. Most of my Irish relatives now seem to have German cars, which they rave about! How reliant are German vehicle manufacturers on Russian energy? They could have trouble if EU sanctions against Russia become more meaningful.

[BlackPeter]

Most of my Irish relatives now seem to have German cars, which they rave about! How reliant are German vehicle manufacturers on Russian energy? They could have trouble if EU sanctions against Russia become more meaningful.

Interesting question ... and I admit and appologize that I started with this particular deviation from FPH on this thread (though it first had still some relevance).

I don't see any specific dependence of the German car industry on Russian energy (of course, other that cheap energy does help all energy hungry industries), but if you want to discuss this further we probably should move on a for this topic more relevant thread (like geopolitical risks or similar?).

[alokdhir]

Happiest Day of dear Couta's life ....FPH up and WHS / HGH down ...lol :p

[winner69]

Happiest Day of dear Couta's life ....FPH up and WHS / HGH down ...lol :p

Tempting fate there .... Monday is another day

[alokdhir]

Tempting fate there .... Monday is another day

For FPH holders like me ...One day happiness is also welcome :D

[alokdhir]

Read on market report that one Australian broker has upgraded FPH to BUY .... reason for todays surprise up move in a big down market

Anyone has news about it?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128569580/tough-timing-for-those-finally-heading-overseas-as-nz-dollar-weakness-sets-in

NZD going down to 60 cents should also help !

[Waltzing]

chart looks like a falling off a cliff.... boy it was the one of the best trades ever from the 2's..

[LoungeLizzard]

You'd think that the FPH might say or do something to try and arrest the decline. If they were confident in the business, then at these levels they might consider a share buyback. Lets hope they'll address their declining market value in the upcoming results. They're a public company yet the silence is deafening.

[couta1]

You'd think that the FPH might say or do something to try and arrest the decline. If they were confident in the business, then at these levels they might consider a share buyback. Lets hope they'll address their declining market value in the upcoming results. They're a public company yet the silence is deafening. Why they issued guidance in March and announced their investor day and results date not long ago, they are just getting on with business otherwise, they are not Physicians so can't be expected to prescribe medication for a Schizohrenic market.

[Goose]

You'd think that the FPH might say or do something to try and arrest the decline. If they were confident in the business, then at these levels they might consider a share buyback. Lets hope they'll address their declining market value in the upcoming results. They're a public company yet the silence is deafening.

I'm with couta1 on this one...I wouldn't expect to see CEO's coming out and commenting on the share price, it is the market's job to sort that out in any and all directions and the job of management to get on with running the business. Anyway, continuous disclosure rules cover things off...If you like the company and want to add more then arresting the decline is the last thing you want.

[LoungeLizzard]

Why they issued guidance in March and announced their investor day and results date not long ago, they are just getting on with business otherwise, they are not Physicians so can't be expected to prescribe medication for a Schizohrenic market.

I agree in principle and there are of course, rules around companies pumping their own stock, but we are looking at NZ's biggest company heading towards halving in value in less than two years (SP was $37 in Aug 20) and in a period of record profits and increased demand for their products. Not worthy of comment? Guidance and results are one thing, and whilst I recognise the market is fickle, in this case I think shareholders (the owners of the company) deserve at least some commentary on the drastic decline in their wealth.

[couta1]

I agree in principle and there are of course, rules around companies pumping their own stock, but we are looking at NZ's biggest company heading towards halving in value in less than two years (SP was $37 in Aug 20) and in a period of record profits and increased demand for their products. Not worthy of comment? Guidance and results are one thing, and whilst I recognise the market is fickle, in this case I think shareholders (the owners of the company) deserve at least some commentary on the drastic decline in their wealth. I reckon on results day holders will see the market has gotten far too negative with its current pricing, im thinking it will go back to around $25 fairly quickly.

[winner69]

Question: ‘Lewis, why has the FPH share price almost halved over the last 18 months?’

Lewis: ‘Ask those who buy and sell our shares. We have no control over the price of our shares, the market does that’

[Arbroath]

I agree in principle and there are of course, rules around companies pumping their own stock, but we are looking at NZ's biggest company heading towards halving in value in less than two years (SP was $37 in Aug 20) and in a period of record profits and increased demand for their products. Not worthy of comment? Guidance and results are one thing, and whilst I recognise the market is fickle, in this case I think shareholders (the owners of the company) deserve at least some commentary on the drastic decline in their wealth.

Nothing personal but I don't get what you and many others can't understand...

1. The share price got overhyped in 2020
2. Profits were magnified by covid above the longer term sustainable growth rate
3. Many "investors" failed to understand point 2 above and overpaid
4. interest rates are now rising and high PE growth stocks like FPH get hurt by that
5. points 1-4 explain the share price the last 6-12 months
6. FPH is still a great company despite the share price performance the past 6-12 months.

[Beagle]

I don't follow this one mate but its important to understand that I am not talking about interest rates as it affects consumers, rather the 10 year Govt stock rate that affects the DCF valuation of the company. As long term interest rates increase the current value of future growth gets marked back as investors demand a better price for a company now to compensate for higher rates and future growth is generally worth less in today's dollar terms.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/
I think its well worth noting that last years result of 90 cps is regarded as the peak and the average analyst is projecting just 71, 67 and 78 cents respectively in the next 3 years.
At $28 this puts FPH on a forward prospective PE of 39 times FY22's forecasted result and 42 times FY23's result.

Those are very very expensive metrics for a company that has just experienced peak earnings and is still enjoying very strong tailwinds from Covid The yield of 1.39% is well below the 10 year risk free Govt stock rate which is now over 2.6%.

I think FPH is very vulnerable to the downtrend continuing. For those that believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us, (I am not sure I am in than camp or not) this looks like a pretty good short opportunity to me.

Despite all this, this stock is well covered by 9 analysts which is very good coverage for a N.Z. stock, who undoubtedly know more about it than I do and the average price target is $31.71 so you should take my comments with the grain of salt they probably deserve.

For me. I don't believe super high PE's in near term earnings decline will work best in this environment...but like all things, time will tell.

Hope my friend Couta1 reads this post. Consider it a warning mate, I really don't like these metrics and the trend down is not your friend.

I rang the alarm bell in January at $28 as did many others.
Like a lot of Covid assisted stocks the bubble is in the process of bursting, certainly not fully burst yet. In the US stocks like Peleton which could do no wrong in the midst of the worst of Covid have lost a whopping 90% of their value, Netflix 70%...dozens of cases of Covid assisted companies in the US now trading at less than half their previous peak prices.

No reason FPH is or should be exempt from this. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/
It's still on a whopping 36 times average FY23 earnings which fundamentally with 10 year Govt stock at close to 4% is still super expensive in my book.
That and a very low yield of just 2% mean those metrics are certainly not attractive and from a TA perspective "Blind Freddy" can see this is in a steep and well entrenched decline.
I think anyone would be very "brave" indeed to apply fresh capital until there is genuine evidence from a TA perspective a new bottom has been reached.
I still think $15 is a very real chance which would be a forward PE of about 25. I know its a very high caliber company but that doesn't make it exempt to the reality that DCF valuations are being seriously affected by much higher interest rates.
Just as well the $N.Z. dollar has fallen hard as otherwise this would have fallen even harder in my opinion.
Disc: No position long or short.

[couta1]

I rang the alarm bell in January at $28 as did many others.
Like a lot of Covid assisted stocks the bubble is in the process of bursting, certainly not fully burst yet. In the US stocks like Peleton which could do no wrong in the midst of the worst of Covid have lost a whopping 90% of their value, Netflix 70%...dozens of cases of Covid assisted companies in the US now trading at less than half their previous peak prices.

No reason FPH is or should be exempt from this. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/
It's still on a whopping 36 times average FY23 earnings which fundamentally with 10 year Govt stock at close to 4% is still super expensive in my book.
That and a very low yield of just 2% mean those metrics are certainly not attractive and from a TA perspective "Blind Freddy" can see this is in a steep and well entrenched decline.
I think anyone would be very "brave" indeed to apply fresh capital until there is genuine evidence from a TA perspective a new bottom has been reached.
I still think $15 is a very real chance which would be a forward PE of about 25. I know its a very high caliber company but that doesn't make it exempt to the reality that DCF valuations are being seriously affected by much higher interest rates.
Just as well the $N.Z. dollar has fallen hard as otherwise this would have fallen even harder in my opinion.
Disc: No position long or short. You can live without Netflix and Peleton equipment but not without oxygen for those that find themselves in the situation to need it, world population expanding and more and more people needing these products means a very prosperous future for this company, plenty more viral outbreaks to come in the future as well, short term "White Noise" is not the way to view FPH, thats just a traders perspective.

[Beagle]

Not true, I can't live without Netflix LOL.

[couta1]

Not true, I can't live without Netflix LOL. Love the honesty and I must confess I've never watched it.

[LoungeLizzard]

Nothing personal but I don't get what you and many others can't understand...

1. The share price got overhyped in 2020
2. Profits were magnified by covid above the longer term sustainable growth rate
3. Many "investors" failed to understand point 2 above and overpaid
4. interest rates are now rising and high PE growth stocks like FPH get hurt by that
5. points 1-4 explain the share price the last 6-12 months
6. FPH is still a great company despite the share price performance the past 6-12 months.

I get all that, and I actually agree that at current levels FPH is undervalued. But my point stands that the Board needs to be a bit more vocal. The current negative environment notwithstanding, the fact remains that the company is in better shape now than it has ever been, yet the SP has been punished far more than other blue chip companies.
When Covid hit in early 2020 the SP was $24. NI for that year was 209m. We are now at $21 (and projected to fall further) when profit for the first half was 222m. Profits between those period were doubled. So given all that - EBIT, EPS, NP all still considerably higher than before covid, and likely to remain elevated for some time yet, why would the share price be well below that of the pre-covid price? Answers on a back of an envelope - send to Chief Communications Officer, FPH.

[couta1]

I get all that, and I actually agree that at current levels FPH is undervalued. But my point stands that the Board needs to be a bit more vocal. The current negative environment notwithstanding, the fact remains that the company is in better shape now than it has ever been, yet the SP has been punished far more than other blue chip companies.
When Covid hit in early 2020 the SP was $24. NI for that year was 209m. We are now at $21 (and projected to fall further) when profit for the first half was 222m. Profits between those period were doubled. So given all that - EBIT, EPS, NP all still considerably higher than before covid, and likely to remain elevated for some time yet, why would the share price be well below that of the pre-covid price? Answers on a back of an envelope - send to Chief Communications Officer, FPH. I think your trying very hard to understand and explain an irrational market, I've found doing too much of that just makes one frustrated and angry, of course i agree with you that its currently undervalued.

[Beagle]

I think your trying very hard to understand and explain an irrational market, I've found doing too much of that just makes one frustrated and angry, of course i agree with you that its currently undervalued.

Quite the contrary, I think there's a perfectly rational revaluation of the company going on here.
Take care out there folks when buying in a steep and confirmed downtrend, the trend is definitly not your friend https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=l3nwkBkY&id=D22B4D4A442FCC3101898AF2DB32D5F998AA6244&thid=OIP.l3nwkBkYmdOaNGwteq5JcwHaHa&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fwww.99.co%2fblog%2fsingapor e%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2016%2f04%2fcatch-falling-knife.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.977 9f090191899d39a346c2d7aae4973%3frik%3dRGKqmPnVMtvy ig%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=3155&expw=3155&q=falling+knives+lose+fingers&simid=608042334341449285&FORM=IRPRST&ck=8534E3D262C1B501004868A14EED1AF3&selectedIndex=0&idpp=overlayview&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0

[LoungeLizzard]

[QUOTE=Beagle;956451]Quite the contrary, I think there's a perfectly rational revaluation of the company going on here.
Take care out there folks when buying in a steep and confirmed downtrend, the trend is definitly not your friend

Nope, disagree. Nothing rational about the revaluation if that's what it is. Either the SP was overvalued pre-covid at $24 or it's undervalued post covid at $21. Since all the fundamentals are way better now than then, I tend to believe the latter. But Couta is is right - no point in chasing shadows - the SP is what it is.

[couta1]

Quite the contrary, I think there's a perfectly rational revaluation of the company going on here.
Take care out there folks when buying in a steep and confirmed downtrend, the trend is definitly not your friend https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=l3nwkBkY&id=D22B4D4A442FCC3101898AF2DB32D5F998AA6244&thid=OIP.l3nwkBkYmdOaNGwteq5JcwHaHa&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fwww.99.co%2fblog%2fsingapor e%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2016%2f04%2fcatch-falling-knife.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.977 9f090191899d39a346c2d7aae4973%3frik%3dRGKqmPnVMtvy ig%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=3155&expw=3155&q=falling+knives+lose+fingers&simid=608042334341449285&FORM=IRPRST&ck=8534E3D262C1B501004868A14EED1AF3&selectedIndex=0&idpp=overlayview&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0 Hmm but you've been buying OCA which has also been in a steep decline for quite a while now, many of us are holding at a price well north of the current price (Same with OCA) so why not buy at these levels ? time in the market is what really matters with quality stocks not timing the market.

[Waltzing]

"Blind Freddy"

classic... the chart says it all...

[couta1]

"Blind Freddy"

classic... the chart says it all... Wrong the chart doesn't say it all, its just a snapshot in time, it can't predict the future nor the future of the sp.

[LoungeLizzard]

"Blind Freddy"

classic... the chart says it all...

Might be a case of the blind leading the deaf:p

[Arbroath]

[QUOTE=Beagle;956451]Quite the contrary, I think there's a perfectly rational revaluation of the company going on here.
Take care out there folks when buying in a steep and confirmed downtrend, the trend is definitly not your friend

Nope, disagree. Nothing rational about the revaluation if that's what it is. Either the SP was overvalued pre-covid at $24 or it's undervalued post covid at $21. Since all the fundamentals are way better now than then, I tend to believe the latter. But Couta is is right - no point in chasing shadows - the SP is what it is.

You’re forgetting the fundamental of interest rates which are a key ingredient to valuation. In 2019-20 interest rates were falling. NZ cut from memory to 1% in spring 2019 and the Fed was concerned about interbank liquidity and cut late 2019 I think.

Now rates are heading higher in a world unsure about how sticky higher inflation is. I think the difference in valuations is perfectly reasonable.

[LoungeLizzard]

[QUOTE=LoungeLizzard;956454]

You’re forgetting the fundamental of interest rates which are a key ingredient to valuation. In 2019-20 interest rates were falling. NZ cut from memory to 1% in spring 2019 and the Fed was concerned about interbank liquidity and cut late 2019 I think.

Now rates are heading higher in a world unsure about how sticky higher inflation is. I think the difference in valuations is perfectly reasonable.

I don't want to labour the point here but... the NZD is stronger against the USD than it was pre-covid and it is projected to rise to perhaps 70c US this year (currently $63c) compared to around 60c pre-covid. That's a considerable boon for companies like FPH and more than offers inflationary pressure (which can be passed on anyway).

[Beagle]

Hmm but you've been buying OCA which has also been in a steep decline for quite a while now, many of us are holding at a price well north of the current price (Same with OCA) so why not buy at these levels ? time in the market is what really matters with quality stocks not timing the market.

OCA a different kettle of fish. A modest increase (3.5% to 5% portfolio allocation) at 97 cents was at a very deep discount to asset backing and that's after they've just made acquisitions that will add 10% to earnings. On a TA basis I was hoping the acquisition would kick it back up into the reasonably well established base of $1.00 - $1.09 and it probably would of if the whole market hadn't fallen 5% in the last few days. Quite apart from that my 3.5% stake was free carry so moving to a 1.5% extra position that's costing me something at that price is a pretty modest increase in risk. I reckon OCA can do 9 cps underlying profit in FY23 so is on a forward PE of less than 11 whereas FPH is on a forward PE of 36. OCA is very cheap and I would argue FPH is still very, very expensive on an earnings basis. I might add some more OCA depending upon the annual result due on the 20th.

I'd be interested if FPH get down to a forward PE in the low to mid 20's. I'm a value investor mate, don't like super high PE's, never have and probably never will LOL

[alokdhir]

On 25th May FPH reports full year results ....Market expects % $1704 Mil sales ...NI of $ 378 Mil ....My estimates $ 1715 Mil sales ...NI of $ 415 Mil

This NZD tanking of 10% in last 4 weeks is a big boon for FPH ...normally this should have boosted SP by 5-8% but revaluation based on higher rates and sentiment is keeping it depressed ...still looking to form some base around $ 21 ...another few days here then we can take off toward $ 25 on results day like Couta expects

If FPH can provide future guidance which I doubt they will or can as covid still very fluid ...then SP will stabilise

NZD supports SP of FPH while rates hurt ...balance point is $ 21 ?? Who knows ! But future is bright ...All know !!

[BlackPeter]

I don't want to labour the point here but... the NZD is stronger against the USD than it was pre-covid and it is projected to rise to perhaps 70c US this year (currently $63c) compared to around 60c pre-covid. That's a considerable boon for companies like FPH and more than offers inflationary pressure (which can be passed on anyway).

Not quite sure who provides your currency forecasts?

13792
One year trend chart USD vs NZD

As you can see - at current NZD is dropping vs the USD ... and assuming Putins war and with that the global uncertainty prevails (which means every Tom, Dick and Harry investing in USD), this is likely to continue as well.

I would be interested to know which analyst is claiming the opposite ...

FPH makes most of its money in USD and is recording it in NZD. Weaker NZD means more profit. Must be all good, then - isn't it?

[iceman]

Not quite sure who provides your currency forecasts?

13792
One year trend chart USD vs NZD

As you can see - at current NZD is dropping vs the USD ... and assuming Putins war and with that the global uncertainty prevails (which means every Tom, Dick and Harry investing in USD), this is likely to continue as well.

I would be interested to know which analyst is claiming the opposite ...

FPH makes most of its money in USD and is recording it in NZD. Weaker NZD means more profit. Must be all good, then - isn't it?

My thoughts exactly. I fail to understand how the NZD would be forecast to reach USD 70c this year when the USD is climbing fast against it's "basket" of currencies and no indications that will change anytime soon https://www.dailyfx.com/us-dollar-index
FPH and other exporters are riding the gains of this while the importers will need to deal with this which adds hugely to the already high inflation. As alokhdir indicates above, FPH is in a happy place operationally.