FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[Muse]

Not quite sure who provides your currency forecasts?

13792
One year trend chart USD vs NZD

As you can see - at current NZD is dropping vs the USD ... and assuming Putins war and with that the global uncertainty prevails (which means every Tom, Dick and Harry investing in USD), this is likely to continue as well.

I would be interested to know which analyst is claiming the opposite ...

FPH makes most of its money in USD and is recording it in NZD. Weaker NZD means more profit. Must be all good, then - isn't it?

Westpac and ANZ are forecasting the NZD to return to upper 60c range this year. Presumably the other banks are too.

The NZ Dollar forward curve is much lower and if you were taking out hedges today for future years you'd be locking in contracts below the spot price
https://www.fxempire.com/currencies/nzd-usd/forward-rates

currency forward curve movements basically reflect movements in interest rate differentials and very jumpy particularly for the USD - fx theory for that doesn't seem to hold like it does for other currency pairs

[winner69]

Grant from Hamilton Hinden Greene obviously keen on Alphabet/Google. Produced this the other day.comparing it's PE (FY23 forecasts) to the stocks in the NZX10..... and its cheaper on this basis than most of the stocks on the NZX10

Interesting how high FPH's PE still is ..... as many would say it can only revert to more sensible levels

His numbers

GOOG 17
AMZN 39
FPH 36
AIA 91
SPK 19
MFT 21
EBO 24
CEN 26
MEL 35
IFT 58
FBU 9
RYM 14
NZX10 33

[iceman]

Westpac and ANZ are forecasting the NZD to return to upper 60c range this year. Presumably the other banks are too.

The NZ Dollar forward curve is much lower and if you were taking out hedges today for future years you'd be locking in contracts below the spot price
https://www.fxempire.com/currencies/nzd-usd/forward-rates

currency forward curve movements basically reflect movements in interest rate differentials and very jumpy particularly for the USD - fx theory for that doesn't seem to hold like it does for other currency pairs

There is a war in Europe, that may (or may not) continue for quite a while yet. That in my view will be more influential on FX rates this year than interest rate differentials.

[tuaman]

Isn't FPH p/e 23.14 now?


Grant from Hamilton Hinden Greene obviously keen on Alphabet/Google. Produced this the other day.comparing it's PE (FY23 forecasts) to the stocks in the NZX10..... and its cheaper on this basis than most of the stocks on the NZX10

Interesting how high FPH's PE still is ..... as many would say it can only revert to more sensible levels

His numbers

GOOG 17
AMZN 39
FPH 36
AIA 91
SPK 19
MFT 21
EBO 24
CEN 26
MEL 35
IFT 58
FBU 9
RYM 14
NZX10 33

[Muse]

There is a war in Europe, that may (or may not) continue for quite a while yet. That in my view will be more influential on FX rates this year than interest rate differentials.

aye. safe haven currency status (rightly or wrongly), etc.
interest rate differentials probably more relevant to other currency pairs, not usd pairs.
USD (relative to NZD) went through the roof during the GFC and briefly during the covid crash early 2020. lots of importers panicked and took out big hedges afraid it would go to the 40s. was one of the nails in the coffin for pumpkin patch back in the day.

[iceman]

Isn't FPH p/e 23.14 now?

Yes the current P/E is but that is too low for the doomsayers !!!!

[Beagle]

All experienced investors know the market is forward looking and the average analyst PE for FY23, (the current financial year we've only just started) is 36.1 https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/
36.1 times earnings that are still being materially assisted by Covid. If that's your cup of tea and you think the chart's well established downtrend is meaningless then good luck, I reckon you'll need it !

[Rawz]

Gee FBU looking cheap on p/e of 9

[couta1]

Lol PE blah/blah/blah, so boring and you don't drive a race car looking continuously at the speedo, it pays to watch the road ahead.

[alokdhir]

Gee FBU looking cheap on p/e of 9

With now improved management which is trying to give big dividends ...as per market screener ...rising dividend yield ahead !!!!

Seems more attractive then WHS ....but FPH is better then AIA , MEL , SPK , IFT and CEN on just P/E metrics

[LoungeLizzard]

Not quite sure who provides your currency forecasts?

13792
One year trend chart USD vs NZD

As you can see - at current NZD is dropping vs the USD ... and assuming Putins war and with that the global uncertainty prevails (which means every Tom, Dick and Harry investing in USD), this is likely to continue as well.

I would be interested to know which analyst is claiming the opposite ...

FPH makes most of its money in USD and is recording it in NZD. Weaker NZD means more profit. Must be all good, then - isn't it?

In April the BNZ were forecasting NZD to be at US70c. The decline in May made them pull back a bit, but my feeling is that the US economy and dollar is more fragile than ours and there may be a strengthening again soon. I don't agree with your assertion that he US dollar is a safe haven in these times. It's finger in the air stuff given all the variables. Point is NZD is stronger now than it was pre-covid.

[Rawz]

Stronger NZD bad for FPH thou

[alokdhir]

Yes BNZ who are good at currency forecasts are advising clients to lock in current downtrend ...I am sure from FPH perspective they will be doing exactly so based on sound advise they will be getting from their bank experts ...Even locking 65 for next year is great !!

[alokdhir]

Stronger NZD bad for FPH thou

They always have forward cover ....based on current scene gives them golden opportunity to lock some forwards at great prices

So next year we can see foreign currency gains if NZD moves up from here ...lol

[BlackPeter]

In April the BNZ were forecasting NZD to be at US70c. The decline in May made them pull back a bit, but my feeling is that the US economy and dollar is more fragile than ours and there may be a strengthening again soon. I don't agree with your assertion that he US dollar is a safe haven in these times. It's finger in the air stuff given all the variables. Point is NZD is stronger now than it was pre-covid.

I guess we will see.

Nobody knows how Putins war will develop, but if it continues for some time (as I think it will) investors will (as they always do) run for the perceived "safe haven" reserve currencies. While the relative economic power of the US is dropping compared to the Chinese (but still a wee bit higher) ... in history it always took roughly a generation for reserve currency status to drop after the loss of the economc leadership (have a look at the British pound and the Dutch gilder before that). USD should be in my view still fine for the next 30 ... 40 years and I am not really worrying about what's happening afterwards.

[iceman]

All experienced investors know the market is forward looking and the average analyst PE for FY23, (the current financial year we've only just started) is 36.1 https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/
36.1 times earnings that are still being materially assisted by Covid. If that's your cup of tea and you think the chart's well established downtrend is meaningless then good luck, I reckon you'll need it !

You didn't quote a post with your latest comment, so I assume it is directed at me, but "experienced investors" is your way of being condescending to everyone that disagrees with you. Like many of your posts in recent months. Many of us follow our conviction as long term investors, for better or for worse. Just like you follow your conviction to be a short term trader, trading in and out of stocks on a regular basis.
Here is a 2 years comparison for FPH & OCA (that you fall in and out of love with frequently). Go figure 13796137961379613796

Forward looking with the likes of FPH requires and incredible level of FX skill. Good luck.

[couta1]

You didn't quote a post with your latest comment, so I assume it is directed at me, but "experienced investors" is your way of being condescending to everyone that disagrees with you. Like many of your posts in recent months. Many of us follow our conviction as long term investors, for better or for worse. Just like you follow your conviction to be a short term trader, trading in and out of stocks on a regular basis.
Here is a 2 years comparison for FPH & OCA (that you fall in and out of love with frequently). Go figure 13796137961379613796

Forward looking with the likes of FPH requires and incredible level of FX skill. Good luck. Too many broken relationships to keep up with. Lol

[iceman]

Yes BNZ who are good at currency forecasts are advising clients to lock in current downtrend ...I am sure from FPH perspective they will be doing exactly so based on sound advise they will be getting from their bank experts ...Even locking 65 for next year is great !!

I'm not, with nearly all my income in USD !

[alokdhir]

I'm not, with all nearly all my income in USD !

Lucky man ....:t_up:

[winner69]

20 bucks beckons

Should hold as irrational markets love round numbers

[alokdhir]

20 bucks beckons

Should hold as irrational markets love round numbers

Need your help mate ...upgrade your buy target from $ 18 to 20 ...round figure

IMO it may show us 19 also ...but maybe temporary

[Beagle]

Iceman - Cognitive bias is an interesting subject. Its amazing how you could interpret "all experienced investors" as a slur against you when I didn't even reference your post. All I am saying is that anyone with experience knows the market is focused on forward earnings. You know this but choose to ignore it and stick with a soon to be historical PE that's heavily Covid assisted.

Cognitive bias. Mrs B puts it this way. If you don't like someone even the way they stir their coffee will annoy you.

BTW - Its not a crime to use TA to your advantage even if you make out the use of it as some dysfunctional investment strategy. Have a nice day mate.

[winner69]

The other bit of that interview with Lewis

Q: Do you think the current share price undervalues the company?

Lewis: not for me to say one way or the other ….but, hmm …I wouldn’t be signing off any proposal to buy a similar company at 35 times earnings.

[couta1]

Iceman - Cognitive bias is an interesting subject. Its amazing how you could interpret all experienced investors as a slur. All I am saying is that anyone with experience knows the market is focused on forward earnings. You know this but choose to ignore it and stick with a soon to be historical PE that's heavily Covid assisted. Cognitive bias. Mrs B puts it this way. If you don't like someone even the way they stir their coffee will annoy you.

BTW - Its not a crime to use TA to your advantage even if you make out the use of same as some dysfunctional investment strategy. Have a nice day mate. Perhaps its more the fact that you keep coming back and stirring the same cup thats the problem and even in the same direction, once the coffee is well stirred its best to let it rest.

[alokdhir]

Perhaps its more the fact that you keep coming back and stirring the same cup thats the problem and even in the same direction, once the coffee is well stirred its best to let it rest.

To this I will agree ...also Mr B fully knows that Dogs tails cannot be straighten even after years of work ...So he keeps trying ...and we remain fully committed to ..

Both right and all enjoy our chit chat ...FPH SP keeps its own path ...which will sometime ahead change to upside then just one way down ...hopefully sooner then latter ....IMHO ...very soon ...its in the process of making an important bottom ...some optimistic investors will take advantage some will keep hoping for better entry as greed and fear takes over

[Rawz]

In the end Beagle and Winners posts about high p/e stocks being re-rated down because of the increasing interest rates and DCF models blah blah was correct. More so with FPH because earnings are falling from covid highs so double whammy.

FPH still a great company. But they were right for the short term price movement. Credit where credit is due.

There was a random day the other week when the SP increased 5% (dead cat bounce) or thereabouts, i took the opportunity to sell my holdings. Partly because i wanted more cash, partly because this is in a sick downtrend and partly because of the above reasons that Beagle keeps harping on about. Looking to buy back in once a bottom has been found. Who knows this crazy market could really kick the SP in the guts and could get some real cheap.. mid teens would be amazing

[couta1]

In the end Beagle and Winners posts about high p/e stocks being re-rated down because of the increasing interest rates and DCF models blah blah was correct. More so with FPH because earnings are falling from covid highs so double whammy.

FPH still a great company. But they were right for the short term price movement. Credit where credit is due.

There was a random day the other week when the SP increased 5% (dead cat bounce) or thereabouts, i took the opportunity to sell my holdings. Partly because i wanted more cash, partly because this is in a sick downtrend and partly because of the above reasons that Beagle keeps harping on about. Looking to buy back in once a bottom has been found. Who knows this crazy market could really kick the SP in the guts and could get some real cheap.. mid teens would be amazing True longs don't need to worry about or consider the dog rants, they see the long term potential and prospects and ignore the temporal noise so there is no credit due from them.

[Muse]

There's always going to debate around low PE ratios being 'desirable or right', and high PE ratios being 'undesirable and wrong', and separately how rising risk free rates feed into all that.

I don't think there is a right answer either way - a high PE isn't just a function of expected fast growing future profits, but also the quality of its cashflows (how capex intensive is it, is capex in excess of depreciation, how working capital intensive is the business), and the company's beta which is all about relative risk (is it just in one market or is it globally diversified, is it cyclical or does it have secular long-term tailwinds, do its products/services have an entrenched moat or constantly under attack by new competitors), etc.

To test that I did a little DCF implied proof, looking at two hypothetical companies with dummy data (one with good cashflow conversion, one with poor cashflow conversion), under two different scenarios (one with identical growth rates, and one with varying growth rates), and how sensitive the later scenario was to rising interest rates.

The companies in the first scenario - hyperlinked below - have identical forecast EBITDA and NPAT in year one - and EBITDA grows at an identical rate. I've hold all else equal - they have the same capital structure (assumed to be 100% equity for convention), same wacc, no excess cash or debt, etc. Despite having identical prospective year earnings, the company with the superior cashflows commands a 36% DCF implied PE ratio compared to the capital intensive company. Coy 1 has low NWC as a % of sales and capex equal to depreciation. Coy 2 has high NWC as a % of sales and requires a few years of capex in excess of depreciation before eventually trending down to depreciation.


13797


The second scenario takes it a step further.

To try to mimic a scenario similar to what FPH is going through with its covid hump, I assume its NPAT falls and doesn't recover to yr 1 NPAT until yr ~4.5, before it reverts to trend based on secular long term growth tailwinds. This hypothetical coy has a low beta given its well diversified globally, has a unique and defensible product or service based, high earning margins giving it downside buffer, excellent management, non cyclical, good counterparty risk etc. Company carries a bit of surplus cash given it has such a positive cashflow profile.

Company 2 performs exactly the same - growing at 2.5%, but given it a slightly higher beta given it operates in one country, manufactures one widget, has low margins and less room for error, and the market perceives risks of new entrants.

Despite having identical yr 1 prospective earnings at the EBITDA and NPAT line, and despite Company 1 earnings going backwards for a few years while Company 2 grows steadily, the DCF implied valuation multiples for Coy 1 are 2.2x-2.5x higher than Coy 2. Most investors at first glance would say Coy 2 should demand a higher PE multiple given the near term expectation of NPAT is higher, but the DCF implies otherwise. And yes, it still does even if you adjust both beta's and waccs the the same identical value.



13798


Finally, I wondered what the change or fall in value in Scenario 2 would have been if you invested on the basis of a DCF that had assumed (say) a 1% risk free (10 year bonds got to 0.5% at one point I think).
If you had done that and revalued it at the spot RFR assumed in scenario 2, the DCF implies a 43% drop in equity value and PE multiple for company 1, but only 25% fall for company 2. So this proves up the point often made that low PE steady as they go company's are less impacted by rising rates than high growth companies.


13799


I think there are two lessons we can take from this.

1) some companies by virtue of their growth, cashflow and risk profile deserve to trade on higher multiples than others. They will be more volatile than their lower valued counterparts, which is justified by a DCF.

2) if we are looking at a high growth company where the majority of its value is in future years, its probably wise not to assume the spot risk free rate (10 yr gov bond) to apply when discounting each individual year and terminal value. It's probably best to calculate a WACC for each individual year. We might have some visibility and confidence over interest rates in the next year or two, but eventually should gravitate towards a long term RFR after 3,4 or 5 years, and hold that constant after and into the terminal value calc. Sort of a 'through the cycle' approach to high growth companies. Cause admit it, its hard enough getting the earnings and cashflow forecasts right long term, don't need to compound those errors with an unsustainably wacc.

Note these examples are totally dummy data, not meaning to replicate any particular company, but sort of inspired by the FPH scenario and debate around valuation multiples.

Disc: not and have never been a FPH shareholder. But would like to be one day.

[winner69]

Good stuff Fiordland Moose

I appreciate it hypothetical but does trebling capex for say three years from say year 3 make much difference to your conclusions

It's good to see thinking like this -- all should appreciate that using PE's is essentially a cheats DCF .... which really means making an assumption about what is agood/fair PE is making guesses/assumptions about future performance. Critics of DCF say its all based on guesses so rather meaningless ...but those critics would never say that about PE ratios.

I'm witng for ressults before updating my DCF but I already know the 2022 numbers are going to be quite a long way out .... no doubt reducing the DCF value going forward

[Muse]

Good stuff Fiordland Moose

I appreciate it hypothetical but does trebling capex for say three years from say year 3 make much difference to your conclusions

a little bit but not as much as the working capital. just seen it a few times when there is a big capex hump for whatever project, you are spending money now, but takes time for your depreciation to catch up, so you have a 'real spend' which you aren't getting a tax deduction for if you know what i mean

i know its a bunch of theoretical drivel, i only do actual modelling on my big positions. back of envelops or gut feel on the rest.

I care about PE's as much as the next guy or gal but think some companies warrant a high pe, others dont.

[couta1]

Lol where are the $15 callers today, thats right MIA, no doubt they will be back on the next down day to remind us of where its heading.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/stock-takes-has-rymans-share-price-fallen-enough-to-reflect-slower-property-market/DXN5R6NPKUJVVESVXZYPN3GPZE/ paywalled

Excepts. Forsyth Barr analysts downgraded Fisher & Paykel this week, dropping the stock from a neutral rating to underperform and lowering its target price from $25.05 to $20. FPH is trading well ahead of its historic strong relationship with peers, which coupled with the backdrop of negative earnings momentum, and increased earnings uncertainty, we view the risk reward as negatively skewed."

Thought for the day. $20 price target a year from now suggests with the very low dividend yield Forbar think about $18-$18.50 is fair value now.

[couta1]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/stock-takes-has-rymans-share-price-fallen-enough-to-reflect-slower-property-market/DXN5R6NPKUJVVESVXZYPN3GPZE/ Cant read it, I don't pay for the Herald which is mainly rubbish but no doubt some analysts opinion. Haha yeah I was right Forbars the lowest of the 10 analysts on 4 traders at $20, avg target price $27.05, you'd better do more research Beagle instead of quoting the Forbar numpties.

[Beagle]

Its a good read that article, covers RYM, MFT, IFT, MFB and FPH. Think they're doing a special at $99 for a whole years access which seems pretty reasonable to me.

[couta1]

Its a good read that article, covers RYM, MFT, IFT, MFB and FPH. Think they're doing a special at $99 for a whole years access which seems pretty reasonable to me. Based on some of the crap and misinformation they put out they would have to pay me $99 to join.

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=couta1;956906]Cant read it, I don't pay for the Herald which is mainly rubbish but no doubt some analysts opinion. Haha yeah I was right Forbars the lowest of the 10 analysts on 4 traders at $20, avg target price $27.05, you'd better do more research Beagle instead of quoting the Forbar numpties.[/QUOTE

But others are less upbeat. Forsyth Barr analysts downgraded Fisher & Paykel this week, dropping the stock from a neutral rating to underperform and lowering its target price from $25.05 to $20."F&P Healthcare's share price has been under pressure year to date; we think there is more to come," they said.
The analysts said there was no questioning the company's quality with its strong competitive positioning, favourable long-term earnings tailwinds, high returns on
capital, and relatively low earnings volatility (pre-Covid).
"We continue to view FPH as well positioned long-term with double-digit earnings growth forecast from FY23 (our view of the new 'base') but expect the next 12 months to be
challenging.

But Jarden and Craigs are positive as they think by middle of this FY market will start looking ahead ...though all know and acknowledge that current FY is going to be lowest revenue year with making FY23 as new base year ...FY24 growth will restart and will get discounted ahead on merits

[winner69]

Another week …..FPH share price down again …..about a buck this week

Under 20 ….getting there

[couta1]

Another week …..FPH share price down again …..about a buck this week

Under 20 ….getting there Nah your going to run out of luck with only 7 trading days till result, market will then realise they've been too pessimistic and the sky isn't falling and mark it up.

[winner69]

Nah your going to run out of luck with only 7 trading days till result, market will then realise they've been too pessimistic and the sky isn't falling and mark it up.

Could well happen

WHS up heaps on a solid update …..FPH will do even better on a stunning result …maybe straight up to $27 ….market behaves in strange ways these days

[alokdhir]

Another week …..FPH share price down again …..about a buck this week

Under 20 ….getting there

Very possible ....But straight up to $ 27 ...not possible ...just on results ...they need say better sales then this year ahead then maybe ...lol

[alokdhir]

https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/

Does this data suggests we again on rising path of hospitalisations ?

Using SA data as they have best surveillance about covid data and also because they have been front running rest of the world on covid trends

At present analysts are following falling covid death rates as proxy of serious covid illness which benefits FPH ...which has fallen thus SP of FPH .

Just like rates reaching 5% in USA is not a surety anymore similarly Covid vanishing is also not a certainty anytime soon ...

But FPH did reach 20.15 !! ...which side is more buttered from here ? I think upside, even on 12 months horizon ...IMHO ....DYOR

[couta1]

Pinnacle take a 5% stake in the company, nice.

[alokdhir]

Pinnacle take a 5% stake in the company, nice.

In just 4 months they bought 5 % ...maximum numbers on day it made its big low ...12th May ...bought 1.1 mil shares ...wow

They seem very bullish ....

[couta1]

In just 4 months they bought 5 % ...maximum numbers on day it made its big low ...12th May ...bought 1.1 mil shares ...wow

They seem very bullish .... These guys are heavy hitters with 93.6 billion under management since 2006, they are obviously not worried about dinosaur PE ratios aye.

[kiora]

Be careful what we wish for.
Bulls T/O or MB if it gets down to $20
Would be a sad day for investors

[alokdhir]

FPH price is not doing anything special ...this normalisation process after big single year boost was always expected ...only the extent of the fall is unexpected territory but that can be partly explained with market conditions and rates scene

Some with longer term view are using this opportunity to buy Big ...Pinnacle putting almost 0.75 B in FPH in 100 days ...Must be seeing some compelling reasons

[winner69]

FPH price is not doing anything special ...this normalisation process after big single year boost was always expected ...only the extent of the fall is unexpected territory but that can be partly explained with market conditions and rates scene

Some with longer term view are using this opportunity to buy Big ...Pinnacle putting almost 0.75 B in FPH in 100 days ...Must be seeing some compelling reasons

And Kingfish still possibly buying more …all looking good

[alokdhir]

And Kingfish still possibly buying more …all looking good

Fisher funds are very small incremental buyers as they already hold enough ...Pinnacle kind of investors are more important at the moment when our own brokerages like Forbars are advising selling ...But we have seen from ATM that this means nothing much if company does not perform ...lol

[couta1]

Fisher funds are very small incremental buyers as they already hold enough ...Pinnacle kind of investors are more important at the moment when our own brokerages like Forbars are advising selling ...But we have seen from ATM that this means nothing much if company does not perform ...lol The likes of Forbar just set their targets by following the sp down, they keep lowering their tp according to the market action, its not like they are trailblazers far from it in fact, any average person would be at least as accurate and reliable.

[alokdhir]

The likes of Forbar just set their targets by following the sp down, they keep lowering their tp according to the market action, its not like they are trailblazers far from it in fact, any average person would be at least as accurate and reliable.

All free public info about SPs of any stocks is worth nothing generally ...IMO One need do his own assessment

[winner69]

FPH price is not doing anything special ...this normalisation process after big single year boost was always expected ...only the extent of the fall is unexpected territory but that can be partly explained with market conditions and rates scene

Some with longer term view are using this opportunity to buy Big ...Pinnacle putting almost 0.75 B in FPH in 100 days ...Must be seeing some compelling reasons

Yes Pinnacle now have 29.3 million shares

But if my mental arithmetic is about right the disclosed trades since January only total just over 10 million (at an average of just over A$23

Must have already had 20 million shares prior to January ..... wonder what they paid for those (prob 5 bucks lol)

Averaging down .... or just topping up in the dips .... who knows but obviously like FPH

of course my mental arithmetic might be wonly ....might need to borrow beagles abacus

[bull....]

Be careful what we wish for.
Bulls T/O or MB if it gets down to $20
Would be a sad day for investors

still on target

[alokdhir]

still on target

Target is where ??

[couta1]

still on target Who cares, will be around $50 in 4-5 yrs time, thats my target.

[couta1]

Target is where ?? Bullseye is his backside.

[alokdhir]

Yes Pinnacle now have 29.3 million shares

But if my mental arithmetic is about right the disclosed trades since January only total just over 10 million (at an average of just over A$23

Must have already had 20 million shares prior to January ..... wonder what they paid for those (prob 5 bucks lol)

Averaging down .... or just topping up in the dips .... who knows but obviously like FPH

of course my mental arithmetic might be wonly ....might need to borrow beagles abacus

Your maths cannot ever be wrong ...but they like FPH at current level was the essence ...buying 1.11 mil shares in a day ...wow ...also huge investment in a company ...5% of FPH market cap is huge !!

[BlackPeter]

Your maths cannot ever be wrong ...but they like FPH at current level was the essence ...buying 1.11 mil shares in a day ...wow ...also huge investment in a company ...5% of FPH market cap is huge !!

Just imagine what would have happened with FPH share price if Pinnacle would not have backed up the truck :scared:

[couta1]

Just imagine what would have happened with FPH share price if Pinnacle would not have backed up the truck :scared: They helped slow the Zombie selling. Lol

[Waltzing]

carnage ....

[alokdhir]

Just imagine what would have happened with FPH share price if Pinnacle would not have backed up the truck :scared:

I was also wondering about that when I first went thru their data ...W69 target would have come by now then ...still can come ...

[winner69]

Just imagine what would have happened with FPH share price if Pinnacle would not have backed up the truck :scared:

12th May they bought just over a million shares .... total trades for day on both ASX and NZX seemed to be about 1.5 million

The Pinnacle Plunge Team in action

[alokdhir]

12th May they bought just over a million shares .... total trades for day on both ASX and NZX seemed to be about 1.5 million

The Pinnacle Plunge Team in action

The biggest question is " Will they keep buying ?? " ...

[alokdhir]

12th May ...1.115 Mil bought ....28th March 1.325 Mil bought ...Total new investment is over $ 250 Mil ....thats some confidence in FPH

[couta1]

11th May ...1.115 Mil bought ....28th March 1.325 Mil bought ...Total new investment is over $ 250 Mil ....thats some confidence in FPH A whole lot of reef fish lost their scales right there.:cool:

[winner69]

Warren Buffett on a value hunting stock spurge ….zillions to spend

I sent him a message to him not to forget about Fisher & Paykel Healthcare

Probably won’t reply.lol

[winner69]

Might see sub 20 today?

[alokdhir]

Might see sub 20 today?

Very possible ...

We have Budget troubles too !!

U bring your money when ? Still looking for $ 18 or target lowered now ....Fear becomes Greed ...lol

[alokdhir]

Will Pinnacle save the day for FPH and not let W69 get his price ?

At least they are trying ...:D

[couta1]

Will Pinnacle save the day for FPH and not let W69 get his price ?

At least they are trying ...:D Winner is running out of time fast, just 3 more trading days till the market finds out the sky isn't falling.:cool:

[alokdhir]

Mainfreight 19%
Infratil 18%
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare 15%
Summerset 10%
Auckland International Airport 8%

Seems KFL added some more FPH in last week ....from 14% to 15% ...marginal increase ...rest remaining same including NAV

Seems well researched institutions like Pinnacle and Fisher funds dont have any problems " Catching falling knife " or maybe they cant read our forum .....lol

[winner69]

Mainfreight 19%
Infratil 18%
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare 15%
Summerset 10%
Auckland International Airport 8%

Seems KFL added some more FPH in last week ....from 14% to 15% ...marginal increase ...rest remaining same including NAV

Seems well researched institutions like Pinnacle and Fisher funds dont have any problems " Catching falling knife " or maybe they cant read our forum .....lol

Maybe only 14.49% to 14.51% ..which could same amount held on slightly lower NAV

Least they haven’t lost faith …..still have a lot of faith in A2 as well

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fisher-and-paykel-healthcare-earnings-set-to-return-to-earth-after-stellar-2021-year/KSEW2PUSGPV7OYMODI7NXUBNJQ/

Forbars most pessimistic about next year prospects ...

Market Consensus as per NZ Herald ...Revenue $ 1700 Mil ...NPAT $ 377 Mil

My estimates are more optimistic for results ....Revenue $ 1725 Mil ...NPAT $ 420 Mil

All eyes are on future guidance or outlook commentary ...that will decide next trend of the SP

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fisher-and-paykel-healthcare-earnings-set-to-return-to-earth-after-stellar-2021-year/KSEW2PUSGPV7OYMODI7NXUBNJQ/

Forbars most pessimistic about next year prospects ...

Market Consensus as per NZ Herald ...Revenue $ 1700 Mil ...NPAT $ 377 Mil

My estimates are more optimistic for results ....Revenue $ 1725 Mil ...NPAT $ 420 Mil

All eyes are on future guidance or outlook commentary ...that will decide next trend of the SP

Jeez, Forbars $390 for F23 is only 50 cents a share .....share price 10 bucks lol

My F22 profit est is 393m ..... from that base DCF still about 18 bucks but may need to adjust discount rate (expected returns)

[kiora]

https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/healthcare/nzx-fph/fisher-paykel-healthcare-shares?blueprint=2028796&utm_medium=finance_user&u tm_campaign=infographic&utm_source=yahoo#insider_t rading

[weasel]

https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/healthcare/nzx-fph/fisher-paykel-healthcare-shares?blueprint=2028796&utm_medium=finance_user&u tm_campaign=infographic&utm_source=yahoo#insider_t rading

Can you give a summary? (I get "Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.")
Edit: the images were not loading.. now they are.

[kiora]

"Simply Wall St.
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited (NZSE:FPH) insider upped their holding earlier this year

FSPKF
0.00%
Simply Wall St
Sun, May 22, 2022, 10:02 PM
In this article:

FSPKF
0.00%

Looking at Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited's (NZSE:FPH ) insider transactions over the last year, we can see that insiders were net buyers. That is, there were more number of shares purchased by insiders than there were sold.

Although we don't think shareholders should simply follow insider transactions, we do think it is perfectly logical to keep tabs on what insiders are doing.

See our latest analysis for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Insider Transactions Over The Last Year
In the last twelve months, the biggest single purchase by an insider was when Independent Non-Executive Director Lisa E. McIntyre bought NZ$143k worth of shares at a price of NZ$32.45 per share. So it's clear an insider wanted to buy, even at a higher price than the current share price (being NZ$20.85). While their view may have changed since the purchase was made, this does at least suggest they have had confidence in the company's future. In our view, the price an insider pays for shares is very important. Generally speaking, it catches our eye when an insider has purchased shares at above current prices, as it suggests they believed the shares were worth buying, even at a higher price. Lisa E. McIntyre was the only individual insider to buy shares in the last twelve months." "

[winner69]

Alokdhir …how did Stats export sales data look like for April?

Might be indicator as to what fph says about f23

[alokdhir]

Alokdhir …how did Stats export sales data look like for April?

Might be indicator as to what fph says about f23

Nothing flash in April ...just estimate it to be $ 125 Mil ...maybe due to bigger March they got for year ending boost !!

Yesterday saw two recent substantial holder announcements on ASX of Pinnacle and Hyperion ...both seems to have same transactions and same person ...maybe connected ...then why they made two announcements ...I wonder

[Sideshow Bob]

FPH announces strong full year results and new products - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392651)

Overview of key results for the 2022 financial year
• 28% decline in net profit after tax to $376.9 million, 30% decline in constant currency.
• 15% decline in operating revenue to $1.68 billion, 14% decline in constant currency.
• 19% decline in Hospital operating revenue to $1.21 billion, 19% decline in constant currency.
• 3% constant currency revenue growth for new applications consumables; i.e. products used in noninvasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow therapy and surgical applications, accounting for 71% of Hospital consumables revenue.
• 1% growth in Homecare operating revenue, 2% growth in constant currency.
• Investment in R&D was 9% of revenue, or $154 million.
• 2% increase in final dividend to 22.5 cps (2021: 22.0 cps).
• 4% increase in total dividends for the financial year to 39.5 cps (2021: 38.0 cps).

[alokdhir]

Nothing there to cheer the market ...exactly as per consensus ...so maybe W69 targets on cards ....:p

[winner69]

Numbers as expected but a bit disappointing

we are not currently providing quantitative revenue or earnings guidance for the 2023 financial year. .... but seems that sales will be down and margins remain under pressure and going to spend more .... so lower F23 profits

I'll need toreview and change my DCF model .... numbers on high side I fear

[bull....]

outlook didnt look flash

[couta1]

Nothing there to cheer the market ...exactly as per consensus ...so maybe W69 targets on cards ....:p Or already fully priced in with it's drop from $37 to $20, I reckon so.

[couta1]

outlook didnt look flash Well no surprises there, looks fine from where I'm sitting, change your short sighted glasses.

[alokdhir]

Or already fully priced in with it's drop from $37 to $20, I reckon so.

I will also think so ...but SP need do something to show today's disappointment ...that it will show by knee jerk selling ...Its sentiment is pretty low too

$ 18 or so very possible in short term ...IMO

[Biscuit]

I will also think so ...but SP need do something to show today's disappointment ...that it will show by knee jerk selling ...Its sentiment is pretty low too

$ 18 or so very possible in short term ...IMO

There's certainly nothing there to excite the market. Increased dividend though.

[couta1]

I will also think so ...but SP need do something to show today's disappointment ...that it will show by knee jerk selling ...Its sentiment is pretty low too

$ 18 or so very possible in short term ...IMO Just a whole lot more reef fish activity I suspect, the bigger fish like Pinnacle will just keep gobbling them up, the long term price will always ultimately be determined by the big holders. I'll just do nothing and enjoy the larger divvy. Lol

[winner69]

There's certainly nothing there to excite the market. Increased dividend though.

Surely this is exciting stuff -- “Over the last two financial years we have supplied $880 million of hospital hardware, the equivalent of approximately 10 years’ hardware sales prior to COVID-19.

[Biscuit]

Surely this is exciting stuff -- “Over the last two financial years we have supplied $880 million of hospital hardware, the equivalent of approximately 10 years’ hardware sales prior to COVID-19.

Strategically important stuff that's a medium-term headwind. Market looks forward but only to the end of its nose.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/FPH/392651/371381.pdf
There's a certain irony that the presentation is titled "looking forward" but they give no guidance for FY23.
I suppose shareholders simply need to "Believe in better" in the future but bottom of page 22 is pretty confronting with second half performance net profit after tax down 51% in constant currency terms. Gosh, extrapolate that out into FY23 and no wonder they won't give guidance.
Just as well the long term is gong to give assured growth but I still feel there's a lot of hot air to come out of the very elevated market darling metrics this still trades on. I'll stay away until a new uptrend is confirmed. Too risky to more share price declines in the near term :scared:

[BlackPeter]

Strategically important stuff that's a medium-term headwind. Market looks forward but only to the end of its nose.

Headwind? Assuming all this hospital hardware they sold is and stays in use, it will create an amazing tailwind for the company. All this hardware needs plenty of consumables to keep it going.

[Rawz]

Headwind? Assuming all this hospital hardware they sold is and stays in use, it will create an amazing tailwind for the company. All this hardware needs plenty of consumables to keep it going.

Yes thats right and they have a slide that shows worst case scenario the consumables will grow at a 10% CAGR or best case scenario consumables grow at a 18% CAGR off the back of the new hardware sales.

Gee H2 profit is a shocker. Happy i sold a few weeks back when it had that random one day dead cat bounce up 5% Think i got out $23 - $23.50 or thereabouts

[winner69]

Was always going to be an interesting study as to how the market would react when FPH profits started declining .... heading in to the second year of declining ..... esp from an irrationally high share price

Has a lot of similarity to how A2 went ,,,,from super high share price and bonanza profits to something much lower when profits start going backwards

My mates at LSE always looking for raw material to use in behavioural finance courses - I've alerted them to this thread

[Rawz]

It's all good W69. They reinforce their target to double revenue every 5 to 6 years. And they note their track record of doing this.
Also they note their strong history of increasing dividends.

Can't go wrong long term holding FPH!! Just might need to hodl (hold on for dear life) in the short term.

[Biscuit]

Headwind? Assuming all this hospital hardware they sold is and stays in use, it will create an amazing tailwind for the company. All this hardware needs plenty of consumables to keep it going.

I agree, but its going to dent hardware sales for quite awhile I expect. Hard to believe there is going to be any recovery in profit 2023. It's a testament to the quality of the company that they were able to ramp up production like that. They are a formidable company with a bright future.

[couta1]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/FPH/392651/371381.pdf
There's a certain irony that the presentation is titled "looking forward" but they give no guidance for FY23.
I suppose shareholders simply need to "Believe in better" in the future but bottom of page 22 is pretty confronting with second half performance net profit after tax down 51% in constant currency terms. Gosh, extrapolate that out into FY23 and no wonder they won't give guidance.
Just as well the long term is gong to give assured growth but I still feel there's a lot of hot air to come out of the very elevated market darling metrics this still trades on. I'll stay away until a new uptrend is confirmed. Too risky to more share price declines in the near term :scared: Yes please stay away, nothing for you to concern yourself with here, talk of buying in a new uptrend is cheap.

[BlackPeter]

Just crunching some numbers:

NTA is now $2.69. Was always low for them (low equity), but it did grow since last year ($2.36).

RoE was 22.4%. Not a particular good number for FPH (down from 34.5% in 2020), but outstanding for any other company (though admittedly, their comparatively low equity helps ...);

Liabilities to assets stand now at 20.3% - down from 26.7% in 2020. Gives them plenty of headroom for investment and expansion.

Great company with a bright future coming down to earth after a huge Covid booster. Whether the current price is right is obviously something the markets need to decide ... and predicting Mr. Markets moods is an art nobody masters.

Discl: holding (still a rather small allocation) and having some money earmarked to buy more ... either when the price falls below my "must buy" line or when TA tells me that I better rush to avoid missing the train ...

[BlackPeter]

Was always going to be an interesting study as to how the market would react when FPH profits started declining .... heading in to the second year of declining ..... esp from an irrationally high share price

Has a lot of similarity to how A2 went ,,,,from super high share price and bonanza profits to something much lower when profits start going backwards

My mates at LSE always looking for raw material to use in behavioural finance courses - I've alerted them to this thread

I guess as long as you don't tell your mates from the bowling club about this share, we should be safe :p ;

[couta1]

Just crunching some numbers:

NTA is now $2.69. Was always low for them (low equity), but it did grow since last year ($2.36).

RoE was 22.4%. Not a particular good number for FPH (down from 34.5% in 2020), but outstanding for any other company (though admittedly, their comparatively low equity helps ...);

Liabilities to assets stand now at 20.3% - down from 26.7% in 2020. Gives them plenty of headroom for investment and expansion.

Great company with a bright future coming down to earth after a huge Covid booster. Whether the current price is right is obviously something the markets need to decide ... and predicting Mr. Markets moods is an art nobody masters.

Discl: holding (still a rather small allocation) and having some money earmarked to buy more ... either when the price falls below my "must buy" line or when TA tells me that I better rush to avoid missing the train ... Pre Covid operating revenue for 2020 financial was 33% lower than it is currently yet the sp was higher then, hmm.

[Biscuit]

Pre Covid operating revenue for 2020 financial was 33% lower than it is currently yet the sp was higher then, hmm.

Yes, that's the story W69 finds most fascinating. Market psychology.

[BlackPeter]

Pre Covid operating revenue for 2020 financial was 33% lower than it is currently yet the sp was higher then, hmm.

A clear case of hype deflation. I guess the multi billion question is - will it come back, and if yes, when?

[winner69]

I guess as long as you don't tell your mates from the bowling club about this share, we should be safe :p ;

Há ha, one said to me a while ago ‘why did I buy FPH, big mistake’ ….I had to remind him the told you só line that he was buying the hype ….nothing really tangible.

Think he’s doing the hold ‘em and it’ll be OK one day trick …..might break even in 2026

[winner69]

A clear case of hype deflation. I guess the multi billion question is - will it come back, and if yes, when?

Love that term ‘hype inflation’ …..good one :t_up:

[couta1]

Há ha, one said to me a while ago ‘why did I buy FPH, big mistake’ ….I had to remind him the told you só line that he was buying the hype ….nothing really tangible.

Think he’s doing the hold ‘em and it’ll be OK one day trick …..might break even in 2026 SP should be around $40 by then so he will make a bit of coin.

[Waltzing]

Winner(n), chart still looks aweful....and P/E is priced for growth ?...

[couta1]

Winner(n), chart still looks aweful....and P/E is priced for growth ?... I think you mean awful and yes a lot of charts look awful at the moment and yes growth will continue into the future, next question Sherlock.

[Waltzing]

Nope AWEFULL

forgot the extra L ...

[jimdog31]

Nope AWEFULL

forgot the extra L ...

Super surprised this hasn't fallen through support today

[Waltzing]

Damn fine company though...

[couta1]

Super surprised this hasn't fallen through support today Why when its current revenue is 33% higher than when it was over $21 pre Covid?

[Waltzing]

Yes but what was its P/E around then. It P/E has at time been pretty high.

Right now the Paper pastel lines are hanging in mid air....

Depends of global news and if investors are feeling fine or Not So FINE!!!

[alokdhir]

U dont get many chances to buy a good company ...so it seems some are using the opportunity well ...while some are waiting for their money to finish ...lol

Forbar maybe advising its clients to sell to Pinnacle guys and forget about our No1 company :p

[dibble]

Share pricing is a fickle beast but here's what a I dont get.
FPH was $20-25 pre covid. It shot up past $35 for well discussed covid euphoria yet, back then before Omicron, covid was seen as a nasty but short term thing, as reflected in the lack of a sharemarket crash. Perhaps some of that price rise could be explained by general FOMO exuberance etc but the covid windfall per share equates something insubstantial, indeed the dividend element has gone up a mere 14c (24 to 39c).

What on earth were people who paid $35 hoping to achieve? if they were hoping covid would stick around as a mass killer to boost sales for a decade or more, wouldnt the corollary of that likely be an eventual financial meltdown? Of course FPH is hardly a yield play so then why sell a quality stock now at $21 with all those retained earnings?

Anthropologists must have fun watching this one.

[couta1]

Share pricing is a fickle beast but here's what a I dont get.
FPH was $20-25 pre covid. It shot up past $35 for well discussed covid euphoria yet, back then before Omicron, covid was seen as a nasty but short term thing, as reflected in the lack of a sharemarket crash. Perhaps some of that price rise could be explained by general FOMO exuberance etc but the covid windfall per share equates something insubstantial, indeed the dividend element has gone up a mere 14c (24 to 39c).

What on earth were people who paid $35 hoping to achieve? if they were hoping covid would stick around as a mass killer to boost sales for a decade or more, wouldnt the corollary of that likely be an eventual financial meltdown? Of course FPH is hardly a yield play so then why sell a quality stock now at $21 with all those retained earnings?

Anthropologists must have fun watching this one. Why did people pay $156 for XRO last year or about the same for Afterpay etc etc, I mean how long is a piece of string? People live and breathe in real time at the time, very few can see into the future otherwise they would be God and im yet to meet anybody in that league. Agree re selling at $21 though, leave that to the reef fish.

[Jaa]

I was a bit worried about mark to market FX hedging losses but FPH seem to have covered themselves well for the next 5 years with a lot of cover between 59c-62x against the USD.

Was also comparing FPH to ResMed (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RMD:ASX?comparison=NZE%3AFPH&window=MAX) over in Aus and their share price has done much better than FPH over any time period you choose. 6mth, 1yr, 5yr, 10yr, 20yr etc. ResMed Has a higher P/E and much lower dividend rate. So definitely valued higher. But why? Any thoughts? Is it really just a better business?

[Biscuit]

.....
Was also comparing FPH to ResMed (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RMD:ASX?comparison=NZE%3AFPH&window=MAX) over in Aus and their share price has done much better than FPH over any time period you choose. 6mth, 1yr, 5yr, 10yr, 20yr etc. ResMed Has a higher P/E and much lower dividend rate. So definitely valued higher. But why? Any thoughts? Is it really just a better business?

Advantage might be that they don't need to spend as much on research to develop identical products to FPH? :)

[alokdhir]

I was a bit worried about mark to market FX hedging losses but FPH seem to have covered themselves well for the next 5 years with a lot of cover between 59c-62x against the USD.

Was also comparing FPH to ResMed (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RMD:ASX?comparison=NZE%3AFPH&window=MAX) over in Aus and their share price has done much better than FPH over any time period you choose. 6mth, 1yr, 5yr, 10yr, 20yr etc. ResMed Has a higher P/E and much lower dividend rate. So definitely valued higher. But why? Any thoughts? Is it really just a better business?

ResMed is big in OSA products used individually at home thus they have bigger addressable market ...while FPH is big in hospital humidification products . Also ResMed being USA company gets better valuations on their stock exchange listing

[moose]

That's hit the nail on the head!:t_up:
Advantage might be that they don't need to spend as much on research to develop identical products to FPH? :)

[couta1]

Market got thumped on close so we snuck under $20, US looking up tonight so NZX should follow tomorrow after the OCR panic attack.

[Joshuatree]

Once interest rates have turned(may not be that far off) the cycle for FPH may become favourable again and those future cash flows won't be discounted as they have been and I will look for a reentry. Near a mkt bottom, but right now across much of the world equity sellers outweigh buyers,watch and wait.

[moose]

Quote of the year from CNBC (unattributed but must be long-standing fro some wise old hound- Beagle?) - " Any Great Company can be turned in to a terrible investment just by running the share price up too far"
F&P is (to everyone I think) a Great Company - it probably should be in everyone's long-term portfolio but it is (in a rationale market if such a thing exist) susceptible to interest rates because it is one of the ultimate bond proxies. Its share price was "high" pre-covid due to very low interest rates, it got a C-19 sugar-rush and is now settling in a higher interest rate environment. Its still a Great Company that will achieve a 10-15% CAGR over the next 10+ years but it will always be a low% div payer on its current share price (but if you buy now it will look very cheap in 10+ years.)
Once interest rates have turned(may not be that far off) the cycle for FPH may become favourable again and those future cash flows won't be discounted as they have been and I will look for a reentry. Near a mkt bottom, but right now across much of the world equity sellers outweigh buyers,watch and wait.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks moose
Im not alone:t_up:

[Beagle]

For what its worth I like to buy growth companies on a forward PE of 9 (representing no growth) + 1 PE more for each 1% estimated or proven rate of annual growth which I think is sustainable for the next 5-10 years. FPH's long run CAGR is 12% so in this instance I would consider it a great buy at 9 + 12 = 21 times estimated next years earnings which at a rough guess might settle at consensus estimate of 50 cps once all the analysts have updated their estimates. FPH would be a great buy at 50 cents estimated eps a PE of 21 = $10.50.

I seriously doubt FPH will go that low, (but you never know...there could be a huge exogenous shock to the market at some stage), so it probably won't ever get into my portfolio and I'm quite relaxed about that but there are plenty of stocks out there that fit my GARP (Growth at a reasonable price) great valuation search finding criteria. SUM a classic one which has a CAGR of 33% over the last decade but is unloved and will go back into my portfolio when TA suggests the timing is right. HGH and TRA are other examples of unloved growth stocks on compelling metrics.

I don't chase market darlings on stretched metrics, never have and never will and stick to what I know works for me. Good luck to holders, I think this downtrend still has quite some way to go.

[Waltzing]

It was a great trade after the GFC for many many years..but once it got up there it was obvious to get out..and wait for another big shock..

and there is always one coming....unfortunately..

[couta1]

For what its worth I like to buy growth companies on a forward PE of 9 (representing no growth) + 1 PE more for each 1% estimated or proven rate of annual growth which I think is sustainable for the next 5-10 years. FPH's long run CAGR is 12% so in this instance I would consider it a great buy at 9 + 12 = 21 times estimated next years earnings which at a rough guess might settle at consensus estimate of 50 cps once all the analysts have updated their estimates. FPH would be a great buy at 50 cents estimated eps a PE of 21 = $10.50.

I seriously doubt FPH will go that low, (but you never know...there could be a huge exogenous shock to the market at some stage), so it probably won't ever get into my portfolio and I'm quite relaxed about that but there are plenty of stocks out there that fit my GARP (Growth at a reasonable price) great valuation search finding criteria. SUM a classic one which has a CAGR of 33% over the last decade but is unloved and will go back into my portfolio when TA suggests the timing is right. HGH and TRA are other examples of unloved growth stocks on compelling metrics.

I don't chase market darlings on stretched metrics, never have and never will and stick to what I know works for me. Good luck to holders, I think this downtrend still has quite some way to go. Yes we have heard this same story from you umpteen times with this stock now, stick to that car sales stock you once described to me as the biggest dog on the NZX, oh wait your now it's biggest fan.

[couta1]

It was a great trade after the GFC for many many years..but once it got up there it was obvious to get out..and wait for another big shock..

and there is always one coming....unfortunately.. Hmm Beagle and yourself up late and posting together, you seem to like brown-nosing with the hound.

[Walter]

Interesting to compare to other high tech companies like Rakon. FPH PE around 30, Rakon about 12.

[couta1]

Interesting to compare to other high tech companies like Rakon. FPH PE around 30, Rakon about 12. PE of around 35 pretty standard for a company like FPH and compared to its peers, apples for apples. Looking at the latest result in depth its very impressive compared to pre covid figures and the eps would support a sp of around $22 right now.

[Arbroath]

Interesting to compare to other high tech companies like Rakon. FPH PE around 30, Rakon about 12.

OMG you just put FPH and Rakon in the same sentence like there is some kind of equivalence in quality between them!

[BlackPeter]

Interesting to compare to other high tech companies like Rakon. FPH PE around 30, Rakon about 12.

You must be kidding using these two companies in the same sentence.

FPH is an oustanding medical company with great management and a very long and successful track record of building on their successes. Medical industry is very conservative ... successful products can be gainfully sold for a long time. They own lots of IP, they know how to make money with it. They tend to underpromise and overdeliver.

RAK on the other hand operates in the telecommunication industry with rapid innovation cycles. New generations of chips are coming and going fast, and any new generation can wipe out the one off sales success they might have had by sheer luck. Three steps backwards and than one step forward is not called sustainable progress.

RAK used to be controlled by substandard management, driven by a family with big egos and more interest in paying itself big dollars than in the success of their company. RAK has a long history of overpromising and underdelivering ...

Flea ridden dogs typically sell cheap, even if the previous owner claims that they just had treatment.

[winner69]

I now see why BlackPeter loves FPH - the CEO talks his language -- as the headlines in BusinessDesk say 'Fisher & Paykel Healthcare can’t predict the future'

BPs mate Neil at least you have a chance of predicting the future by saying it's difficult to do .... not a cant do

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/fisher-paykel-healthcare-cant-predict-the-future
Might be paywalled

[bull....]

no end in sight to the selling , charts have somewhere with a 15 on it now but who knows for sure

[couta1]

no end in sight to the selling , charts have somewhere with a 15 on it now but who knows for sure Not you nor anyone, whole market is trashed so doesn't matter where you are just sit tight or lose money with cash under your bed, bonds also have their own risks and gold may only be good for keeping your door from banging shut.

[Walter]

You must be kidding using these two companies in the same sentence.

FPH is an oustanding medical company with great management and a very long and successful track record of building on their successes. Medical industry is very conservative ... successful products can be gainfully sold for a long time. They own lots of IP, they know how to make money with it. They tend to underpromise and overdeliver.

RAK on the other hand operates in the telecommunication industry with rapid innovation cycles. New generations of chips are coming and going fast, and any new generation can wipe out the one off sales success they might have had by sheer luck. Three steps backwards and than one step forward is not called sustainable progress.

RAK used to be controlled by substandard management, driven by a family with big egos and more interest in paying itself big dollars than in the success of their company. RAK has a long history of overpromising and underdelivering ...

Flea ridden dogs typically sell cheap, even if the previous owner claims that they just had treatment.
Insult all you want but in the last 2 years Rakon shareprice is up 5 fold and FPH has dropped over 30%. Rakon is up ten fold in the last 5 years. Rakon's revenues have steadily grown, they have no debt, increasing cashflow and a strong pipeline. Like FPH, they have had a Covid boost. Stripping that out, they have still out performed. CAGR for the telecom sector you flip off has averaged 21% per annum for the last 5 years. Five of the Seven top telecom infrastructure companies use Rakon, they have often been cultivating the relationship for 30 years. Do you think the defense and satellite business will fade away? Your myopia has cost you a great chance to invest in one of New Zealand's best performing investments. Despite the fantastic performance it still trades on an historic PE of 11 (about 17 if you take out the covid boost)

[BlackPeter]

Insult all you want but in the last 2 years Rakon shareprice is up 5 fold and FPH has dropped over 30%. Rakon is up ten fold in the last 5 years. Rakon's revenues have steadily grown, they have no debt, increasing cashflow and a strong pipeline. Like FPH, they have had a Covid boost. Stripping that out, they have still out performed. CAGR for the telecom sector you flip off has averaged 21% per annum for the last 5 years. Five of the Seven top telecom infrastructure companies use Rakon, they have often been cultivating the relationship for 30 years. Do you think the defense and satellite business will fade away? Your myopia has cost you a great chance to invest in one of New Zealand's best performing investments. Despite the fantastic performance it still trades on an historic PE of 11 (about 17 if you take out the covid boost)

You might want to somewhat increase your time horizon when you are researching RAK - I suggest you start at the beginning (I think IPO was 2007). Huge amounts of capital destroyed in a huge mountain of hype and unkept management promises and the current hype molehill looks (though smaller) quite similar shaped.

Have a read through 15 years of broken management promises ... actually, they didn't change a lot, but they rarely came true.

Anyway - lets not spoil the FPH thread with discussing the wealth destroyer Rakon, shall we? I suggest you move to the Rakon thread if you want to continue this discussion ... I am sure you find there a RAK cheerleader to respond.

[alokdhir]

I get a feeling that FPH will be first major stock to bottom out ...maybe because it was the first to make top ...way back in August 2020 ...

By Oct 2022 all the bad blood should be out ....then maybe we can breathe again ..." Warm moist air " ...elixir of lungs and life

[couta1]

I get a feeling that FPH will be first major stock to bottom out ...maybe because it was the first to make top ...way back in August 2020 ...

By Oct 2022 all the bad blood should be out ....then maybe we can breathe again ..." Warm moist air " ...elixir of lungs and life The beginning of the road to $50, sounds good, given earnings revenue is 33% above pre covid you would have thought the bottom would have already been in but thats rational thinking and the current market is fear driven not rational.

[Joshuatree]

Insult all you want but in the last 2 years Rakon shareprice is up 5 fold and FPH has dropped over 30%. Rakon is up ten fold in the last 5 years. Rakon's revenues have steadily grown, they have no debt, increasing cashflow and a strong pipeline. Like FPH, they have had a Covid boost. Stripping that out, they have still out performed. CAGR for the telecom sector you flip off has averaged 21% per annum for the last 5 years. Five of the Seven top telecom infrastructure companies use Rakon, they have often been cultivating the relationship for 30 years. Do you think the defense and satellite business will fade away? Your myopia has cost you a great chance to invest in one of New Zealand's best performing investments. Despite the fantastic performance it still trades on an historic PE of 11 (about 17 if you take out the covid boost)

I felt the same as Blackpeter about the family running RAK,I lost any trust in those self entitled arrogant b',stards and prob lost money ,too long ago to remember.So I too never looked back,to my cost,herein lies a lesson.,never take it personally or write off a company forever .Ive a friend who turns over the bones of dud companies because quite often they can recover and be very profitable.Congrats Walter and good luck with Tesla!

[Biscuit]

I felt the same as Blackpeter about the family running RAK,I lost any trust in those self entitled arrogant b',stards and prob lost money ,too long ago to remember.So I too never looked back,to my cost,herein lies a lesson.,never take it personally or write off a company forever .Ive a friend who turns over the bones of dud companies because quite often they can recover and be very profitable.Congrats Walter and good luck with Tesla!

Yeah, but once bitten twice shy and I wouldn't invest in a company if I didn't have confidence in the company leadership. When the going gets tough, they will revert to form.

[winner69]

Looks kike another big hitter value investor becoming a SSH

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/FPH/392812/371660.pdf

[Sideshow Bob]

$5m of ventilators to the NZ Government

Big Giver: F&P Healthcare | BusinessDesk (https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/charities/big-giver-fp-healthcare) (not paywalled)

[Rawz]

Looks kike another big hitter value investor becoming a SSH

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/FPH/392812/371660.pdf

Growth funds selling to the value funds?

[alokdhir]

Looks kike another big hitter value investor becoming a SSH

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/FPH/392812/371660.pdf

Check my post # 2828 ....I saw these two SSH notices on ASX ...while both have same transactions almost ...so maybe just one new holder !!

[couta1]

Check my post # 2828 ....I saw these two SSH notices on ASX ...while both have same transactions almost ...so maybe just one new holder !! Yes same holder with different envelopes.

[alokdhir]

Yes same holder with different envelopes.

As transactions are same then why confuse the market with two SSH announcements ...basically they bought once not twice

[couta1]

As transactions are same then why confuse the market with two SSH announcements ...basically they bought once not twice All the transactions are not the same neither the number of shares or total % held.

[alokdhir]

FPH says they will strive to double revenues in every 5-6 years ...if they can double to $ 3.2 Billion in 2027 ...that will be about $ 1.75 eps ...SP should be $ 65+ ...maybe thats the growth story these big funds are believing in and Investing in now ....

[winner69]

In the daily update of todays action -.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare slid 0.3% to $19.50. Forsyth Barr analysts said the company’s forward guidance was “opaque”. The business is well positioned for long-term earnings growth, but the stock was already expensive relative to comparable companies.

Opaque …and expensive

[couta1]

In the daily update of todays action -.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare slid 0.3% to $19.50. Forsyth Barr analysts said the company’s forward guidance was “opaque”. The business is well positioned for long-term earnings growth, but the stock was already expensive relative to comparable companies.

Opaque …and expensive Forbars wouldn't know expensive if it hit them in the face, they had better buy themselves a whole bunch of ResMed at $202 -USD and on a PE of 38. Lol
Forbars must be the lowest newly adjusted price target of the 10 on 4 traders at $17.50, avg now $23.58.

[kiora]

Portfolio values are more impacted by missing the increases than partaking in the declines

It will be interesting to see how their future modelling goes
Post covid
"Then on that basis, the implication is that if it took 4 years, their activity alone would represent an equivalent compound annual growth rate of about 13% for our hospital consumables for the full year period going from that FY '22 starting point. If the transition was completed over 3 years, the compound annual growth rate would be equivalent to 18%, and it was 5 years, 10% net overage complete period. Now that's without selling any additional hardware during that period. When we model placing additional hardware over these time frames at half of our pre-COVID-19 levels. And we assume that, that will be driven by a change in clinical practice so it has historically normal utilization. And that adds another 2 to 3 percentage points to the hospital consumables compound annual growth rate."Airvo 3 a great product. It's got a lot of features Airvo 2 doesn't have. We're going to sell it into other parts of the hospital, we transport on entry. We think this we can upgrade users from Airvo 2 to Airvo 3 so we can sell in different parts of the hospitals to people have previously used high flow. So we think that over time is a great opportunity for Airvo 3."
"it's kind of already there in these places because of COVID, but you're talking pulmonology wards, emergency departments and in many cases, general wards."
"we're back in kind of a normal pricing cycle now. We are increasing pricing when we were able to and kind of in line with local CPIs and everybody else"
"Europe and the U.S. So it's gone on really for us now that we can generally get under both the people most institutions who want to see. And that's only been in the last month or 2."
"whole emphasis is to making sure that our customers actually understand the value of the investment. They can use it for wider applications and not just COVID. So all kinds of respiratory insufficiency. So we use whatever clinical data is available at the time and depending on who we're talking to and what kind of application that they're seeing as an opportunity. So we're using a lot of clinical data and all the latest clinical data that supports the clinical practice guidelines probably the most compelling. And the clinical base guidelines are definitely the most well, very compelling too"
Going forward, we have with waiver from our long-term sustainable profitable growth aspiration. We've got an exciting opportunity to apply our 50 years of experience and changing clinical practice to what is now a customer base that already has the hardware and already has the clinical experience. That enables us to bring forward new products and applications and global sales, manufacturing and distribution investment.""

All in all, past trend lines won't be the same as future trend lines

"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514275-fisher-and-paykel-healthcare-corporation-limited-fspkf-ceo-lewis-gradon-on-q4-2022-results?utm_campaign=twitter_automated&utm_content=article&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_automated

[Biscuit]

.....
"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514275-fisher-and-paykel-healthcare-corporation-limited-fspkf-ceo-lewis-gradon-on-q4-2022-results?utm_campaign=twitter_automated&utm_content=article&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_automated

Thanks for posting the link kiora. All in all, one of the most exciting companies on the NZX.

[winner69]

Football this morning not that exciting so updated my FPH DCF valuation .... hope answer isn't as sad as the faces of the guys in red shirts at the moment.

What you guys think of the sales trajectory in the chart below? I expect to hear wow you are bearish lol

Anyway that gives me a value of $17.05.

So at $17.05 I'd be expecting a 8% pa capital gain plus divies

If I really wanted a 10% pa capital return (and believed my assumptions) I'd only want to pay about $12

See what happens eh

Disc: I don't work for Forbar

[couta1]

Football this morning not that exciting so updated my FPH DCF valuation .... hope answer isn't as sad as the faces of the guys in red shirts at the moment.

What you guys think of the sales trajectory in the chart below? I expect to hear wow you are bearish lol

Anyway that gives me a value of $17.05.

So at $17.05 I'd be expecting a 8% pa capital gain plus divies

If I really wanted a 10% pa capital return (and believed my assumptions) I'd only want to pay about $12

See what happens eh

Disc: I don't work for Forbar You won't be getting them for $17.05 tomorrow. PS- Forbar might have a job for you cause you've valued them lower than them but then would you really want to be associated with a bunch numpties like that. I love how these analysts just keep lowering their tp according to the market movements, hey even a monkey is more than capable of following a squiggly line down.

[winner69]

You might have to pay over $20 to get them tomorrow unless your an early bird. PS- Forbar might have a job for you cause you've valued them lower than them but then would you really want to be associated with a bunch numpties like that. I love how these analysts just keep lowering their tp according to the market movements, hey even a monkey is more than capable of following a squiggly line down.

Yes it'll be an UP day but give it another week or so to see what happens

I'm still lookibg forward to another Kingfish rave about how all this was expected blah blah

[Beagle]

You won't be getting them for $17.05 tomorrow. PS- Forbar might have a job for you cause you've valued them lower than them but then would you really want to be associated with a bunch numpties like that. I love how these analysts just keep lowering their tp according to the market movements, hey even a monkey is more than capable of following a squiggly line down.

Same numpties that value OCA at $1.65...Hmmm

[Beagle]

You won't be getting them for $17.05 tomorrow. PS- Forbar might have a job for you cause you've valued them lower than them but then would you really want to be associated with a bunch numpties like that. I love how these analysts just keep lowering their tp according to the market movements, hey even a monkey is more than capable of following a squiggly line down.

Same numpties that value OCA at $1.65...Hmmm
This old hound reckons their price target on both companies is way too high...

[couta1]

Same numpties that value OCA at $1.65...Hmmm
This old hound reckons their price target on both companies is way too high... You must keep up with these squiggly line chasers, OCA now covered by 4 analysts with $1.52 avg not $1.65 and Forbar are probably the numpties with the low $1.25 target id say. Anyway my 5 yr price target stands at $50 for FPH and thats what I reckon.

[winner69]

This is interesting

https://www.alphaspread.com/security/asx/fph/intrinsic-valuation


The intrinsic value of one FPH stock lies somewhere between 12.47 AUD and 20.66 AUD. Compared to the current market price of 18.06 AUD, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Ltd is [/B]undervalued only under the bull case scenario.[/B]

[couta1]

This is interesting

https://www.alphaspread.com/security/asx/fph/intrinsic-valuation


The intrinsic value of one FPH stock lies somewhere between 12.47 AUD and 20.66 AUD. Compared to the current market price of 18.06 AUD, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Ltd is [/B]undervalued only under the bull case scenario.[/B] Man where do you dredge up these randoms from? the best part from them is their disclaimer on the bottom where they say " The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way" kinda says it all really. But now the good news from these guys, OCA is worth $1.74 with an intrinsic value of between $1.28-$2.69. Lol

[alokdhir]

Football this morning not that exciting so updated my FPH DCF valuation .... hope answer isn't as sad as the faces of the guys in red shirts at the moment.

What you guys think of the sales trajectory in the chart below? I expect to hear wow you are bearish lol

Anyway that gives me a value of $17.05.

So at $17.05 I'd be expecting a 8% pa capital gain plus divies

If I really wanted a 10% pa capital return (and believed my assumptions) I'd only want to pay about $12

See what happens eh

Disc: I don't work for Forbar

Its not too far from your original $ 18 ...so I think its quite reasonable expectation and assumptions ....

On Forbar analysis ....Their analysts didnt even bother to join Q&A session with top management after results presentation ...rest all were present and clarified some aspects ....Kiora posted the link to chat transcript ...read it and found it to be quite bullish over longer term period ...as management is confident on longer term trends but cannot guide on shorter term targets ...It says pretty confidently that sales can grow 12% YOY on a long term span of say 5-8 years ahead

[couta1]

Yes it'll be an UP day but give it another week or so to see what happens

I'm still lookibg forward to another Kingfish rave about how all this was expected blah blah UP day alright, your $17.05 model getting smashed. Lol

[winner69]

Over $21 now ..... heading to $25 by end of June

FPH .... go you little beauty

[couta1]

Over $21 now ..... heading to $25 by end of June

FPH .... go you little beauty You reckoned it was going to go back down toward $18 in a week or so the other day, your taking on the personality of the Wellington weather.

[winner69]

You reckoned it was going to go back down toward $18 in a week or so the other day, your taking on the personality of the Wellington weather.

That didn't work in keeping share price below 20 bucks so may as well start pumping it

Way over sold at current levels

[BlackPeter]

That didn't work in keeping share price below 20 bucks so may as well start pumping it

Way over sold at current levels

Sshhh ... still have an open Buy order for it (but a bit lower ...). This is a terrible stock and much too dear. It will drop. Stop praising it!

[winner69]

Sshhh ... still have an open Buy order for it (but a bit lower ...). This is a terrible stock and much too dear. It will drop. Stop praising it!

If you really want them you'd better buy now ..... never be cheaper

[Rawz]

never see $20 again

[BlackPeter]

If you really want them you'd better buy now ..... never be cheaper

Does this statement come with a guarantee? I recon the bear is still on the loose, isn't it?

[couta1]

never see $20 again Does that come with the same conviction as when you said you would eat your hat if OCA went sub $1 again?

[Rawz]

Does that come with the same conviction as when you said you would eat your hat if OCA went sub $1 again?

Me and my hats ay. Okay in all honesty i think we will see FPH below $20 again. sorry

[couta1]

Me and my hats ay. Okay in all honesty i think we will see FPH below $20 again. sorry Can easily drop 50c on any given day and go sub $20 again but perhaps $19.48 could very well be the bottom now that the result has been digested. PS-I have a lot of spare hats at home here, even a couple of cowboy or should that be cowperson ones in our new Woke culture.

[couta1]

Over $21 now ..... heading to $25 by end of June

FPH .... go you little beauty Huge $21 close so you got that right.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

There are many positives for FPH.
For example donation to NZ of 50 ventilators worth $5M to help with the initial outbreak of Covid.
Supplying hospitals worldwide to treat those ill with Covid and presumably ramping up production to do so.
However a classic sales go up but profits go down situation the end result.
I certainly hope that FPH improves on last years results for all of the shareholders and stakeholders.
Whether FPH management is sound is for others to judge.

A couple of things to consider:

(1) It seems to me Resmed (RMD) Air Sense 10 is technically superior to FPH current offering and the Air Sense 11 better still.
The Resmed AirSense 11 is only available in the US to the present and not in Australia and NZ. The reason is Philips were forced by the US FDA to recall all their installed base of Respironics CPAP machines. There are estimated to be 5,5 million. Many US users will buy RMD as first choice and not wait for a recall to work through.
(2) At a time of maximum production because of Covid increased demand, FPH appear to have been unable to manage increases in profits. They also appear not to have managed FX successfully and maybe other risks.

Don't get me wrong I want FPH to succeed for all of us.

Good luck to all at FPH.

FPH will be in almost all Kiwi's Kiwisaver portfolios. As our largest capital value company.

FPH is Simplicity's largest individual Company holding at 2.36% of the Growth Fund. FPH share price is down -36% in my Watch List over 73 weeks.
Simplicity have 1.61% of the Growth fund in AIA - don't know how it will turn out with the current activity, but today in the same Watch list it is -2.1% in 73 weeks.
Simplicity also have 1.09% of the Growth fund in Contact at -23% in the 73 week Watch list.
Spark is another of Simplicity holdings at 1.46% of the Growth Fund. It is up 1.3% over 73 weeks.
Simplicity have 7.73% of the Growth fund invested in NZ Equity.
Simplicity chose the 5 largest NZ companies.

FPH is the biggest individual company NZD holding in the whole Simplicity Growth Fund portfolio. Surprising to many but bigger than any of the US Companies, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet.

That is why we all need FPH to succeed and for good management in the current challenging environment.

[Beagle]

Good post. Just as an aside I can't help wondering with the tens of billions invested in Kiwisaver how many people have been asking to switch from growth funds to balanced, conservative and or cash funds and that surely must keep the pressure on stocks like FPH which are a real favorite with Kiwisaver funds targeting growth. Interesting times.

[Biscuit]

.........
However a classic sales go up but profits go down situation the end result.
......

Is that a fair assessment? They greatly increased profits during the sales surge. I'd say it was very well managed.

[winner69]

Golly gosh - my sales and profit forecasts for the next few years are higher than what marketscreener are showing.

I assume that makes me bullish lol

Marketscreener says f23 EPS at 50 cents --- PE of 40 is 20 bucks

[alokdhir]

Golly gosh - my sales and profit forecasts for the next few years are higher than what marketscreener are showing.

I assume that makes me bullish lol

Marketscreener says f23 EPS at 50 cents --- PE of 40 is 20 bucks

Its the other way now ...opposite to when market and analysts justified $ 37 SP ...as we know $ 37 was over estimated ....similarly we will know the present day SP and estimates as over bearishness ...Pendulum has swung .

U maybe more right then Forbars on this ...at least likes of Pinnacle and Mitsubishi think so :D

[Joshuatree]

There are many positives for FPH.
For example donation to NZ of 50 ventilators worth $5M to help with the initial outbreak of Covid.
Supplying hospitals worldwide to treat those ill with Covid and presumably ramping up production to do so.
However a classic sales go up but profits go down situation the end result.
I certainly hope that FPH improves on last years results for all of the shareholders and stakeholders.
Whether FPH management is sound is for others to judge.

A couple of things to consider:

(1) It seems to me Resmed (RMD) Air Sense 10 is technically superior to FPH current offering and the Air Sense 11 better still.
The Resmed AirSense 11 is only available in the US to the present and not in Australia and NZ. The reason is Philips were forced by the US FDA to recall all their installed base of Respironics CPAP machines. There are estimated to be 5,5 million. Many US users will buy RMD as first choice and not wait for a recall to work through.
(2) At a time of maximum production because of Covid increased demand, FPH appear to have been unable to manage increases in profits. They also appear not to have managed FX successfully and maybe other risks.

Don't get me wrong I want FPH to succeed for all of us.

Good luck to all at FPH.

FPH will be in almost all Kiwi's Kiwisaver portfolios. As our largest capital value company.

FPH is Simplicity's largest individual Company holding at 2.36% of the Growth Fund. FPH share price is down -36% in my Watch List over 73 weeks.
Simplicity have 1.61% of the Growth fund in AIA - don't know how it will turn out with the current activity, but today in the same Watch list it is -2.1% in 73 weeks.
Simplicity also have 1.09% of the Growth fund in Contact at -23% in the 73 week Watch list.
Spark is another of Simplicity holdings at 1.46% of the Growth Fund. It is up 1.3% over 73 weeks.
Simplicity have 7.73% of the Growth fund invested in NZ Equity.
Simplicity chose the 5 largest NZ companies.

FPH is the biggest individual company NZD holding in the whole Simplicity Growth Fund portfolio. Surprising to many but bigger than any of the US Companies, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet.

That is why we all need FPH to succeed and for good management in the current challenging environment.

Good post.Im getting closer to a reentry.FPH is also arguably (please argue:) )one of the few companies on the nzx that is a pricemaker and can pass on costs.

[kiwico]

FPH is Simplicity's largest individual Company holding at 2.36% of the Growth Fund. FPH share price is down -36% in my Watch List over 73 weeks.
Simplicity have 1.61% of the Growth fund in AIA - don't know how it will turn out with the current activity, but today in the same Watch list it is -2.1% in 73 weeks.
Simplicity also have 1.09% of the Growth fund in Contact at -23% in the 73 week Watch list.
Spark is another of Simplicity holdings at 1.46% of the Growth Fund. It is up 1.3% over 73 weeks.
Simplicity have 7.73% of the Growth fund invested in NZ Equity.
Simplicity chose the 5 largest NZ companies.

FPH is the biggest individual company NZD holding in the whole Simplicity Growth Fund portfolio. Surprising to many but bigger than any of the US Companies, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet.

This seems to suggest Simplicity chooses what shares are in their funds and the amount. I understood Simplicity was simply an index fund and so will have next to no control what is in their funds nor the %age held.

[winner69]

Morningstar guy quote - “But Ponraj now thinks it has been oversold and trading at a discount for long-term investors – he values it at $24 per share which is more bullish than many other analysts covering the stock.”

Morningstar usually pretty good with their valuations

Well done Morningstar ….go go FPH

But Ponraj now thinks it has been oversold and trading at a discount for long-term investors – he values it at $24 per share which is more bullish than many other analysts covering the stock.

Prob paywalled

[alokdhir]

Morningstar guy quote - “But Ponraj now thinks it has been oversold and trading at a discount for long-term investors – he values it at $24 per share which is more bullish than many other analysts covering the stock.”

Morningstar usually pretty good with their valuations

Well done Morningstar ….go go FPH

But Ponraj now thinks it has been oversold and trading at a discount for long-term investors – he values it at $24 per share which is more bullish than many other analysts covering the stock.

Prob paywalled

Morningstar values EBO at $ 30 ....:D

[winner69]

Morningstar values EBO at $ 30 ....:D

Maybe $30 for EBO is about right for a low margin business with only a 10% ROE

[winner69]

Tale of two high flying businesses

Company A had huge sales growth and sales peaked in June 2020. Sales decline appears to have bottomed out after 3 quarters but 30% less than their peak

Company B also had huge sales growth and sales peaked in September 2020. Sales are forecast to bottom out after 4 quarters (September 2022) and also about 30% less than their peak

Both companies mention margin pressures

Company A's share is down about 70% from its peak while Company B's share price is currently down 45% from its peak

Company B still has to report further decline in sales - maybe its share price might fall further .... maybe to 70% less than its peak

Maybe not because its margin problem doesn't seem to be as bad as Company A experienced

[Rawz]

The old ATM vs FPH comparison again? lol

[BlackPeter]

Tale of two high flying businesses

Company A had huge sales growth and sales peaked in June 2020. Sales decline appears to have bottomed out after 3 quarters but 30% less than their peak

Company B also had huge sales growth and sales peaked in September 2020. Sales are forecast to bottom out after 4 quarters (September 2022) and also about 30% less than their peak

Both companies mention margin pressures

Company A's share is down about 70% from its peak while Company B's share price is currently down 45% from its peak

Company B still has to report further decline in sales - maybe its share price might fall further .... maybe to 70% less than its peak

Maybe not because its margin problem doesn't seem to be as bad as Company A experienced

Well, yes ... but isn't your Company A a one trick pony which did neither understand nor manage the sales channel to supply their biggest customer with product? The result was sort of predictable.

How can you compare this bunch of inepts with the fine management team at FPH?

[couta1]

The old ATM vs FPH comparison again? lol Yeah load of Bollocks, comparing a one trick pony to a finger in every pie company doesn't stack up. Lol BP we must have both had the one trick pony in our minds at exactly the same time.

[winner69]

So over the last year or so a 'bunch of inepts' as well a 'fine management team' have been in charge of a 30% decline in sales .......... and seen their share prices tumble with zillions of share holder wealth gone

[couta1]

So over the last year or so a 'bunch of inepts' as well a 'fine management team' have been in charge of a 30% decline in sales .......... and seen their share prices tumble with zillions of share holder wealth gone FPH sales still up from pre Covid levels but not the milky one.

[winner69]

In spite of rout on Wall St Friday night could be an UP day for FPH today

Resmed went up in US .... didn't join in the rout

ASX closed today so no leads from them

Just the meek NZ investors left .... probably they'll buy.

[winner69]

ResMed make a $1.45 billion acquisition

Interesting how much SaaS stuff they do - Maybe Resmed valued as a SaaS company ..... like why they have a high PE

https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/resmed-to-purchase-german-healthcare-platform-medifox-dan-for--1-45billion.html?utm_medium=email&utm_source=www.thewebconsole.com&utm_campaign=BNA+News+-+15+June+2022&utm_content=37041559&c=31122783&_c=00a1dc8a37f4b05a1bebd3bf4ce1f3a6

[winner69]

Alokdhir has pointed out that there’s a good chance tomorrows Index rebalancing exercise will be very interesting ...may lead to some big movements in beaten down stocks

Hopefully so ….FPH back over $21

[alokdhir]

Alokdhir has pointed out that there’s a good chance tomorrows Index rebalancing exercise will be very interesting ...may lead to some big movements in beaten down stocks

Hopefully so ….FPH back over $21

Maybe the reverse on the cards ...lol ...but last few days to get it cum 22.5 Cents dividend !!

[winner69]

alokdhir - you still keeping on eye on the export data and running you FPH model?

May data didn't look that good ..... maybe FPH exports down on pcp

FPH share price back over 20 bucks ....that's a good sign

[alokdhir]

alokdhir - you still keeping on eye on the export data and running you FPH model?

May data didn't look that good ..... maybe FPH exports down on pcp

FPH share price back over 20 bucks ....that's a good sign

Yes ...May exports data was almost similar to April ...so nothing much to report ..seems doing $ 125 Mil per month ...

That will bring to analysts forecast of $ 1550 Mil and $ 310 Mil NPAT ...

Todays move maybe overall tide brining all up or being a healthcare proxy for impending recession switch or Bond yields coming off thus helping improve valuations

[winner69]

Yes ...May exports data was almost similar to April ...so nothing much to report ..seems doing $ 125 Mil per month ...

That will bring to analysts forecast of $ 1550 Mil and $ 310 Mil NPAT ...

Todays move maybe overall tide brining all up or being a healthcare proxy for impending recession switch or Bond yields coming off thus helping improve valuations

..... paying top dollar for top dollar, hoping both the P/E and the margin is sustained indefinitely. :):)

[winner69]

7
Yes ...May exports data was almost similar to April ...so nothing much to report ..seems doing $ 125 Mil per month ...

That will bring to analysts forecast of $ 1550 Mil and $ 310 Mil NPAT ...

Todays move maybe overall tide brining all up or being a healthcare proxy for impending recession switch or Bond yields coming off thus helping improve valuations

Forbar still running their model

Market close report mentioned this -


With the healthcare exporter not issuing revenue guidance, Forsyth Barr has built a proxy model to try to estimate how revenue is tracking. “Trends are improving off February lows and it is early days in the financial year 2023, but the run-rate remains below current market expectations,” the analysts wrote.

[alokdhir]

7

Forbar still running their model

Market close report mentioned this -


With the healthcare exporter not issuing revenue guidance, Forsyth Barr has built a proxy model to try to estimate how revenue is tracking. “Trends are improving off February lows and it is early days in the financial year 2023, but the run-rate remains below current market expectations,” the analysts wrote.

I am sure FPH will be in all Broker's Picks for next year ie 2023 ...Universal Choice like HGH this year ...but hopefully wont have HGH fate ...:p

[kiora]

Good long term investments these companies with succession planning well sorted
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cather_Simpson
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/fph.nzx-394918/

[winner69]

So FPH share price recovering well - close week at $21.41

That's 13% above recent lows .... sounds better than saying only 43% below its high...... could say the down trend from those high has been broken and a new up trend is forming

Maybe its falling NZD and/or interest rates that's driving the rise but whatever the reasons the love is returning to FPH

If love is measured by its PE ratio that love has returned big time ....PE now 43 on FY23 forecast earnings

Go FPH - $25 beckons soon ..... esp if they come out with a trading up

[alokdhir]

So FPH share price recovering well - close week at $21.41

That's 13% above recent lows .... sounds better than saying only 43% below its high...... could say the down trend from those high has been broken and a new up trend is forming

Maybe its falling NZD and/or interest rates that's driving the rise but whatever the reasons the love is returning to FPH

If love is measured by its PE ratio that love has returned big time ....PE now 43 on FY23 forecast earnings

Go FPH - $25 beckons soon ..... esp if they come out with a trading up

FPH is one of the 3 stocks which have gone above 30 day and 60 day SMA ...others maybe I dont track ...but many are still struggling below even 30 SMA

Mr B's litmus test it passed ...but I am sure he and many more will still not be impressed as PE too high ...:p

After yo yo of 10 year yields ...I think they will settle soon when market gets a good idea how high rates need go in this cycle ...its still trying to figure that out just like all of us ...I still think it will take something special to go beyond the highs already recorded ie 4.284 NZ and 3.52 of US 10 years

More chance of eventually downside risk to them then upside at present ...but all have their own views

Actionable views should be thought out and maybe acted upon for good rewards ...trading is much more difficult to predict then investing as trading has an element of luck also that your view is right in the short term !!

Buying FPH below $ 20 will be a winning investment sooner then latter

PS : NZD will boost revenues by 10% compared to 70 Cents ...that may be the biggest booster this year to overall analysts 1.5B revenue forecast ...but 10% is big ...1.65 B looks much better and they report in NZD so NPAT will get boost too . NZD trends will remain down till recession fears or reality around ...so maybe whole FY ...
Resurgent Covid may help a bit too ...so imo there are genuine reasons to expect upside surprises ahead from where we reached

[winner69]

jeez alokdhir - 10 year dropping from 4.284 to 3.66 odd is a HUGE swing

Bond traders will be happy - big gains for some?

[alokdhir]

jeez alokdhir - 10 year dropping from 4.284 to 3.66 odd is a HUGE swing

Bond traders will be happy - early 20% gains?

First range is always widest just like first cut is the deepest ...now slowly it will narrow down to maybe 3.75 to 4.25 maybe ...Actually full swing was 4.284 to 3.553 ....massive gains in Bond prices ....Bank's treasuries could have done well to trade

My main point being unless something drastic happens 4.284 should be able to cover this cycles top ...75% certainty at present

So yield decided stocks should find some stability ahead ...

Yes I understand many saying yields only adjusted Prices ...economy will adjust earnings ahead ...maybe FPH earnings are not that economy dependent ...also analysts have already dumped its earnings fully ...only will become better especially with big boost from NZD .

Maybe FPH will lead NZX recovery whenever that happens

[Charlie]

Are we there yet ?
With a bad dose of flu, selling heaps of Airvo consumables.
Gain of 70% from this price to previous highs.

[Louloubell]

I don't want to say anything about FPH, otherwise I might spook the horses. 😎

[winner69]

I don't want to say anything about FPH, otherwise I might spook the horses. 😎

Share price going up nicely eh

Never see sub 20 again …..and 25 is not that far away

Another couple of weeks might be there ….a surprise update might even be on the cards

[winner69]

Stats NZ export data for June looks promising in assessing FPH revenues for F23

When alokdhir and the guys at Forbar put the number in their models expect them to upgrade their sales forecast.

[alokdhir]

Stats NZ export data for June looks promising in assessing FPH revenues for F23

When alokdhir and the guys at Forbar put the number in their models expect them to upgrade their sales forecast.

Nothing much in June exports data ...just 5% up then last two months ...so estimated at another $ 125 Mil revenue ...

Maybe FPH is getting help from recessionary switch to healthcare stocks like in USA RMD doing very well

But overall market is becoming more and more positive towards FPH and hopefully its bottomed out with worst out of the way

Ahead we have 20% growth to EPS for next 3-5 years almost in the bag as per almost all the analysts

57 cents , 73 cents and 90 cents are higher end eps estimates for next 3 years

[kiora]

Hardware/consumables ratio could be blurring the numbers.
Higher margins on consumables

[winner69]

Jeez ... FPH share price went over 22 bucks earlier

Makes 25 bucks sooner than later a near certainty ... just a few days of exuberance way

[Waltzing]

still P/E high...not saying it wont go higher...

shes a goodie ..

[alokdhir]

Hardware/consumables ratio could be blurring the numbers.
Higher margins on consumables

Fully agree with u ...thats the way forward ...more high margin consumables ...next 3-5 years theme

[winner69]

Kingfish keeping the faith --- either in FPH or maybe in themselves

Sam said - 'We increased our position size during the quarter.'

Looks like they've got about 400,000 more shares that at March quarter - more shares but $ holding down about $5m. Total held now about 3.3 million shares

Talk about keeping the faith - seems they've bought another million A2 shares in last quarter as well

[winner69]

I see Wellington Drive have hired FPH's Group Chief Engineer

Orion Health have taken on FPH's General Manager Commercial (International Sales) ....is retiring CEO's son in law


No doubt a few new faces at FPH - that's often a good thing - new ideas etc etc etc

[Southern Lad]

I see Wellington Drive have hired FPH's Group Chief Engineer

Orion Health have taken on FPH's General Manager Commercial (International Sales) ....is retiring CEO's son in law


No doubt a few new faces at FPH - that's often a good thing - new ideas etc etc etc

Read Wellington's NZX release again Winner - their new hire is ex Fisher and Paykel Appliances rather than FPH

[winner69]

Read Wellington's NZX release again Winner - their new hire is ex Fisher and Paykel Appliances rather than FPH

Yeah …my bad

[winner69]

what's up alokdhir .... fph share price heading back to 20 bucks

isn't it meant to be going the other way by now

[alokdhir]

what's up alokdhir .... fph share price heading back to 20 bucks

isn't it meant to be going the other way by now

It will buddy ...have patience ...Needs some new information which can only be provided in Nov results ...till then its buying opportunities galore

Soon theme will change to KFL stocks ....last qtr of this year

[kiora]

Next FPH announcement could be interesting
"When the stock opened, it went down as much as 5.5% – clearly an overreaction"
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/jun-bei-liu-demand-couldn-t-be-higher-for-this-biotech

[alokdhir]

FPH will say something about current year at AGM on 24th August ...thats when it may get some boost to get out its recent trading range of 20.50 to 22

[Sideshow Bob]

FPH provides guidance for the first half of FY23 - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/397210)

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare provides guidance for first half of FY23

Auckland, New Zealand, 19 August 2022 – Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited today provided revenue and net profit after tax guidance for the first half of the 2023 financial year ending 30 September 2022.

At current exchange rates, and assuming a continuation of trading conditions in the first four months, the company expects operating revenue for the first half of the 2023 financial year to be approximately $670 million and net profit after tax to be approximately $85 million to $95 million.

This would represent an increase in revenue on pre-pandemic levels (1HFY20: $570.9M) and a decline in revenue compared to the prior comparable period (1HFY22: $900.0M).

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Lewis Gradon said, “As we detailed in our full year results announcement, we dramatically increased production in response to the pandemic. As a result, we sold approximately ten years’ worth of hardware in two years – to hospitals all around the world.
“Our customers also purchased a considerable amount of hospital consumables in preparation for each wave of COVID-19. During the most recent waves of the Omicron variant, fewer patients have required hospitalisation and respiratory support. We believe customer stock levels have been elevated during our first half, which impacts our short-term sales.

“This does not change the fundamentals of our business or our strategy. Our Hospital sales teams are still focused on changing clinical practice and helping ensure the hardware our customers have purchased is used to benefit a broader range of patients requiring respiratory support.”
First half FY23 guidance

For the Hospital product group in the first half of FY23, the company assumes that in constant currency:
• hardware revenue reduces to a pre-pandemic level by the end of the half;
• new applications consumables revenue is about 75% of the prior comparable period, and above pre-pandemic levels; and
• invasive consumables revenue is approximately equal to the prior comparable period.
Gross margin for the first half is expected to be approximately 60%, which is below the company’s long-term target of 65%.

“The pandemic continues to adversely impact gross margin due to elevated freight and COVID-19 related costs. This year, we are also experiencing some manufacturing inefficiencies, as we are carefully balancing demand fluctuations and targeted inventory levels with manufacturing throughput – while managing higher rates of absenteeism in our manufacturing workforce due to sickness.

“Although we have reduced our manufacturing cost base over the past six months, manufacturing inefficiencies are likely to persist for this financial year as demand stabilises and inventory levels reduce to our targets.

“Product mix also adversely impacts gross margin, because new applications consumables make up a reduced proportion of total hospital consumables.
“We expect operating expenses for the first half to grow by approximately 5% in constant currency. This is consistent with our plan to continue to invest for long-term sustainable growth,” Mr Gradon continued.

Looking forward

“There are ongoing uncertainties around our customers’ inventory levels, their staffing challenges and their current capacity for adopting clinical change. We also do not know to what extent respiratory therapies will be required during the Northern Hemisphere winter. For those reasons, we are not currently providing quantitative revenue or earnings guidance for the full 2023 financial year.

“However, we believe that second half revenue for the 2023 financial year will be higher than in the first half, based on the following expectations:
• hospitalisation rates will reflect pre-COVID-19 seasonal patterns, resulting in higher consumption of hospital consumables in the second half compared to the first half.
• improving global supply of CPAP hardware and the recent launch of our new Evora Full face mask will contribute to continued Homecare growth for the remainder of the year.

“Assuming current freight costs, COVID-19 related costs, and manufacturing inefficiencies persist through the year, gross margin for the second half would remain broadly similar to the first half.”

The company is now targeting constant currency operating expense growth of approximately 10% for the year.

“To deliver on our aspiration of doubling our constant currency revenue every five to six years, we believe it is essential that we continue to grow our investment in our R&D activities. This includes funding clinical trials for home respiratory support products and advancing the development of new surgical technologies. We are also continuing to invest in growing our sales teams to support the significant hospital hardware placements and our expanded offering into anesthesia. We have already expanded our direct sales and distribution presence from 39 countries to 53 over the past three years.

“Never before in our history have we changed clinical practice with such a significant advantage. Our customers already have our hardware, they already have clinical experience with its use, and they already have access to a huge amount of clinical evidence. This gives us confidence that we can continue to build on our proven 50-year track record and reach more patients with our respiratory therapies. We continue to be confident executing on our long-term growth opportunities,” concluded Mr Gradon.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s Annual Shareholders’ Meeting is scheduled for 2pm NZST, 12pm AEST (10pm USEDT) on Wednesday, 24 August. To participate go to: www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/fph22 (http://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/fph22).

[winner69]

Is that an 'upgrade' per se Bob ....or not so good just now but more than OK in a year or so

[winner69]

Is that an 'upgrade' per se Bob ....or not so good just now but more than OK in a year or so

I've read it properly now Bob

Shouldn't say shocking but pretty dismal I reckon

Profit margin shot to pieces --- only 12% when normally its in mid 20s

[bull....]

As a result, we sold approximately ten years’ worth of hardware in two years – to hospitals all around the world.

does that mean the share wont recover for 10 yrs

[Sideshow Bob]

As a result, we sold approximately ten years’ worth of hardware in two years – to hospitals all around the world.

does that mean the share wont recover for 10 yrs

To a degree it is about selling the consumables, but if their customers are well stocked up on consumables, then......:confused:

Down 8.8% this morning!!

[winner69]

So they knew this shocking news was coming and made the ASM a virtual one to avoid being pelted with with rotten eggs and tomatoes

Clever move

[sb9]

As a result, we sold approximately ten years’ worth of hardware in two years – to hospitals all around the world.

does that mean the share wont recover for 10 yrs

Sounds similar to NZ House prices that have had 10 years worth of gains in 2 years.

[winner69]

Sales down 26% ….. gross margins down to 60% instead of 65% and likely to stay low …..operating expenses up 10%

Heck wonder what else can go wrong

[alokdhir]

Sales down 26% ….. gross margins down to 60% instead of 65% and likely to stay low …..operating expenses up 10%

Heck wonder what else can go wrong

Did it make new low ...No ...so people have faith so have I ...lol

Bought more as got golden opportunity .....now already happy with that ....

[Old mate]

Wonder what fisher funds reckon? Still buying more?

[winner69]

Did it make new low ...No ...so people have faith so have I ...lol

Bought more as got golden opportunity .....now already happy with that ....

at the rate buyers are climbing in share price could end the day UP

[alokdhir]

at the rate buyers are climbing in share price could end the day UP

As it was second chance to get in cheap .....many many recognise that ...sadly not in NZ

[ratkin]

As it was second chance to get in cheap .....many many recognise that ...sadly not in NZ

Looks expensive to me. Certainly no bargain

[alokdhir]

Looks expensive to me. Certainly no bargain

If u look from only this year's perspective then its pretty expensive ....but if u can see the longer term picture ahead then its good value ...just like people paid 150 multiples to Tesla initially or buy loss making software stocks

Closed 18.15 AUD with 2628 M traded on ASX ...seems they like it more then here

[kiora]

"“To deliver on our aspiration of doubling our constant currency revenue every five to six years, we
believe it is essential that we continue to grow our investment in our R&D activities. This includes
funding clinical trials for home respiratory support products and advancing the development of new
surgical technologies. We are also continuing to invest in growing our sales teams to support the
significant hospital hardware placements and our expanded offering into anesthesia. We have
already expanded our direct sales and distribution presence from 39 countries to 53 over the past
three years.
“Never before in our history have we changed clinical practice with such a significant advantage.
Our customers already have our hardware, they already have clinical experience with its use, and
they already have access to a huge amount of clinical evidence. This gives us confidence that we
can continue to build on our proven 50-year track record and reach more patients with our
respiratory therapies. We continue to be confident executing on our long-term growth opportunities,”
concluded Mr Gradon."
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/fph.nzx-397210/

[alokdhir]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/

Analysts had already penciled FY 23 S1 revenues as $ 673 M and NPAT of just $ 89 M ....Don't know they updated it so fast ...I am assuming it was already forecasted ...so nothing much bad happened then ...actually they guided 85-95 M ...knowing FPH it may turn out to be 98M ...which is above analysts consensus already on record for S1 of $ 88.9 M

FY 23 S1 was supposed to be worst and it turned out to be that way ....Forbar got it right along with UBS

[winner69]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/

Analysts had already penciled FY 23 S1 revenues as $ 673 M and NPAT of just $ 89 M ....Don't know they updated it so fast ...I am assuming it was already forecasted ...so nothing much bad happened then ...actually they guided 85-95 M ...knowing FPH it may turn out to be 98M ...which is above analysts consensus already on record for S1 of $ 88.9 M

FY 23 S1 was supposed to be worst and it turned out to be that way ....Forbar got it right along with UBS

Marketscreener on Thursday (I must have felt a downgrade was coming lol) had analysts saying H1 revenues 717m and npat 121m

so revenues might not be to much of a surprise but margins seem to have hurt profit big time ……like ô85m is 30% down on expectations …ouch

So what you’ve just seen and taken comfort in is a few updates ….. and they’ve gonecwith guidance for their guesswork

[Balance]

Marketscreener on Thursday (I must have felt a downgrade was coming lol) had analysts saying H1 revenues 717m and npat 121m

so revenues might not be to much of a surprise but margins seem to have hurt profit big time ……like ô85m is 30% down on expectations …ouch

So what you’ve just seen and taken comfort in is a few updates ….. and they’ve gonecwith guidance for their guesswork

This is the second downgrade, W69?

Was trading on a lofty PER of 100+ at its ATH sp!

[winner69]

alokdhir - I assume you also noticed that marketscreener has full year 23 forecast revenues at 1,460m and profit at 199m

That profit forecast of 199m is 30% lower than earlier in the week ,,,,and to get there they are still forecasting further decline in sales v pcp

No wonder analysts were rather shocked

[winner69]

This is the second downgrade, W69?

Was trading on a lofty PER of 100+ at its ATH sp!

Think so Balance

PE come back a bit - now only 57 times F23 earnings forecast!

[Balance]

Think so Balance

PE come back a bit - now only 57 times F23 earnings forecast!

Means there is really no compelling reason to buy the stock until the downgrades become upgrades.

[winner69]

FPH say '....we believe that second half revenue for the 2023 financial year will be higher than in the
first half ....'

So slightly more than 670m ....slightly could mean anything buts let say 700m

If 700m that's 11% down pcp (in F22)

That'll take full year sales to 1,370m (a lot lower than marketscreener forecast) which is nearly 20% down on F22

Put that all together and full year profit likely to 200m .....or 35 cents/share

Need to work on my FCF model with latest view of the world

[BlackPeter]

FPH say '....we believe that second half revenue for the 2023 financial year will be higher than in the
first half ....'

So slightly more than 670m ....slightly could mean anything buts let say 700m

If 700m that's 11% down pcp (in F22)

That'll take full year sales to 1,370m (a lot lower than marketscreener forecast) which is nearly 20% down on F22

Put that all together and full year profit likely to 200m .....or 35 cents/share

Need to work on my FCF model with latest view of the world

Did they say slightly higher, or did you introduce this qualifier?

Anyway - based on marketscreener forecasts (which, as we all know, are sometimes right and sometimes wrong) would FPH have a forward earning CAGR of 8.2 (based on 3 years forward and 7 years backward) and a forward revenue CAGR (same time window) of 10.1.

Add to that a forward PE of 31: They are not really cheap at the moment, but cheaper than for a long time back. Probably fairly priced, but for sure, can drop further ... hype waves are so unpredictable predictable, just watch them building up on sharetrader ;) ;

[alokdhir]

I agree ...No reason to be buying it . No reason to sell it also now ...so let the big boys sort it out .

But I am sure ...." FPH will be back one day in the future ...lol ...just like Terminator " :p

[winner69]

Coffee with friend (not one of those bowling acquaintances lol) this morningv- he was lamenting the pathetic divie he was getting from FPH - muttered something about not being rewarded waiting for the share price to go up.

Bought in the low $30s so his gross yield currently less than 2%

I told him they essentially payout 100% of free cash flow (they did keep a bit of the 2021 bonanza year) so can't pay higher divies.

He didn't seem to grasp the explanation of a low yield is a consequence of buying high PE stocks, even when I explained the earnings yield on stock with a PE of 40 is 2.5%.

And when I said people don't buy the likes of FPH for a dividend his response was along the lines of 'I thought it was a blue chip - and blue chips are meant to earn solid returns with a low risk of loss.'

Think he's accepted the fact it is going to take many many years before he's in positive territory.

[alokdhir]

Coffee with friend (not one of those bowling acquaintances lol) this morningv- he was lamenting the pathetic divie he was getting from FPH - muttered something about not being rewarded waiting for the share price to go up.

Bought in the low $30s so his gross yield currently less than 2%

I told him they essentially payout 100% of free cash flow (they did keep a bit of the 2021 bonanza year) so can't pay higher divies.

He didn't seem to grasp the explanation of a low yield is a consequence of buying high PE stocks, even when I explained the earnings yield on stock with a PE of 40 is 2.5%.

And when I said people don't buy the likes of FPH for a dividend his response was along the lines of 'I thought it was a blue chip - and blue chips are meant to earn solid returns with a low risk of loss.'

Think he's accepted the fact it is going to take many many years before he's in positive territory.

FPH is going thru a perfect storm ...but not all so high PE and covid high flyers landed up in same boat ...MFT is still shining and rearing to go . Even safer property stocks dropped 60% like OCA etc ....

Though I understand FPH is going thru tough times for various reasons but so are many others ...even a low PE , high dividend payer HGH dropped from 2.59 to 1.80 !! So I will still have faith in FPH like in others ....It will come back sooner then others ....this 6 months is its all bad blood out half ...advise him to hang in there . Like u saw before it has the capacity to be darling again ...lol

[Joshuatree]

FPH is going thru a perfect storm ...but not all so high PE and covid high flyers landed up in same boat ...MFT is still shining and rearing to go . Even safer property stocks dropped 60% like OCA etc ....

Though I understand FPH is going thru tough times for various reasons but so are many others ...even a low PE , high dividend payer HGH dropped from 2.59 to 1.80 !! So I will still have faith in FPH like in others ....It will come back sooner then others ....this 6 months is its all bad blood out half ...advise him to hang in there . Like u saw before it has the capacity to be darling again ...lol

Maybe when interest rates drop right back FPH's future cash flows won't be discounted so much and it will return to its higher pe rating.In the meantime it's just the wrong cycle to be holding imo.

[alokdhir]

Maybe when interest rates drop right back FPH's future cash flows won't be discounted so much and it will return to its higher pe rating.In the meantime it's just the wrong cycle to be holding imo.

Its P/e is not contracting ...rather its expanding as it happens at the bottom of cycle ...so its not future discounting at work but actual business going thru difficult time or at trough after a huge peak ....when that settles to normal or mean levels like any wave then its SP will also revert to it mean trend

FYI current eps consensus is just 36 cents and current mean price targets is $ 22.61 ...ie p/e of 62 !!! so its not future cash flow discounting at work !!!

[winner69]

Its P/e is not contracting ...rather its expanding as it happens at the bottom of cycle ...so its not future discounting at work but actual business going thru difficult time or at trough after a huge peak ....when that settles to normal or mean levels like any wave then its SP will also revert to it mean trend

FYI current eps consensus is just 36 cents and current mean price targets is $ 22.61 ...ie p/e of 62 !!! so its not future cash flow discounting at work !!!

Let’s hope the ‘future cash flow discounting’ is not coming soon ….have the enamoured analysts/market overlooked that job?

[hamish]

I like this phrase when thinking about the Companies I invest in :

"The business of Business is to stay in business".

i.e. Is the Co. forward looking? Does it have a sound strategy Is it constantly evolving it's customer / product propositions and offerings? Is it investing well to enable these outcomes and goals? Who are it's greatest competitors today and tomorrow? Can todays margins, cashflow, debt facilities generate future revenue streams?? Does it have great culture and strong leadership?

Like the other Orgs, these are the questions I like to research for FPH and make then decision to invest on. In this context, the SP of the day can blend to the background

[alokdhir]

Let’s hope the ‘future cash flow discounting’ is not coming soon ….have the enamoured analysts/market overlooked that job?

In their mind FPH is a Apple / Tesla kind of stock ...not just a common OCA / HGH / even SUM !!! So they give it a very long rope ....