FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare. [Archive] - Page 2

percy

25-05-2012, 12:45 PM

Percy - that's a bit cheeky using the growth rate from the "constant currency" calculations and the NPAT from the actuals... best-of-all-worlds analysis :P

Sorry if mixing up figures.I used catalyst's figures then went to the company's announcement to get growth figures."constant currency" would be the constant figure an analysis would use to get a true figure?

percy

25-05-2012, 12:52 PM

Thanks Percy ,sending you alphabet soup (with additional star signs and trig symbols) :huh: pssst i have analysis allergy.

Look forward to receiving it.....lol.

Lets try PE divided by [growth plus dividend].

Don't worry working it out as I think Lizard will supply us with the constant correct figure.

percy

25-05-2012, 12:56 PM

I see the market has taken it well. Down 6.58% at the moment! Go figure.

As you may appreciate I am having enough trouble trying to "figure" the company's figures ,so will have to leave the market for you to "go
figure."

Lizard

25-05-2012, 02:48 PM

Percy, Constant currency figures give a PE of about 26, so PEG is greater than 1 - although your method includes the divs (which I don't entirely approve of, given they are not being paid out of excess cash).

On an actual result level, there is barely any growth at bottom line, so PEG no help at all.

While the constant currency result might look better, it is really difficult to conclude where a "constant-currency" could be pegged while we are seeing longer-term structural changes and/or longer cyclical moves in forex that cannot be easily smoothed. Once the dust settles in another 6-12 months, FPH is one I might be taking a closer look at.

Joshuatree

25-05-2012, 08:32 PM

I see the market has taken it well. Down 6.58% at the moment! Go figure. Been a s/p run ,up to profit announcement with expectations exceeding facts, happens a lot, buy on rumor sell on the fact type exuberance. And outlook for next years ebitda and profit is flat. So we are back to banking on the exchange rate dropping AGAIN:eek2: thats no way to invest.Its like being gifted the popcorn that didn't pop.

winner69

25-05-2012, 08:51 PM

So we are back to banking on the exchange rate dropping AGAIN:eek2: .

Many commentators reckon that long term the NZD will be stronger for longer - like BNZ's Tony Alexander said yesterday in one of 10 projections for the future "The NZD will be (already is) structurally higher against the US, British and European currencies thus curtailing returns from those regions for exporters...."

We should be proud to have a strong currency .... means a strong economy

Catalyst

31-05-2012, 10:32 AM

FPH down over 15% in last six trading days ($2.45 to $2.07 currently).
Cum a 7cps divi (record date 22 June).
NZDUSD hovering near six months lows at 75c.
FPH has always found support around $2.10 - $2.12 over the last five years (will it hold by days end?).
At mid-point of FY13 NPAT guidance range ($62m - $70m), FPH currently trading on PE of 16.4x, EV/EBITDA of 9.7x and gross yield of 8.3%.

Disc - took a punt this morning.

JayRiggs

31-05-2012, 10:50 AM

Surely this must be an irrational selloff? The company is still growing revenues at a healthy rate (though net profits ain't moving much) and dividend looks sustainable. Share price at 8yr low, maybe long term investors are just giving up.
Don't see the 2.10-2.12 support holding after it goes ex-dividend in 3 weeks!

Maybe after US elections, the world will be happier again, boost the US dollar and FPH will regain it's former glory :-)

Hoop

31-05-2012, 11:02 AM

.....We should be proud to have a strong currency .... means a strong economy

Couldn't agree more !!

Catalyst

01-06-2012, 12:24 PM

BIRMANBOY

21-06-2012, 11:41 AM

Has it settled enough for you?...I got in at 1.95 today. Buyers are starting to look a bit sparse so may have a way to drop yet however.
Managed to get out this morning without any damage. Not a good sign that the previously strong $2.10 - $2.12 support area has been broken. I don't think the fundamentals look too bad under $2.10 but the market doesn't think so at the moment. Might wait until the dust settles a bit...

Hoop

21-06-2012, 01:09 PM

Managed to get out this morning without any damage. Not a good sign that the previously strong $2.10 - $2.12 support area has been broken. I don't think the fundamentals look too bad under $2.10 but the market doesn't think so at the moment. Might wait until the dust settles a bit...

Yes that is a significant strong support that broke. It would scare me out as well

Has it settled enough for you?...I got in at 1.95 today. Buyers are starting to look a bit sparse so may have a way to drop yet however.

Brought in ..huh?? Hmmm

The good news BB is that using TA with default indicators is useless its a big TA FAI (e.g see chart below)....The FA crowd will be cheering about that..eh.

Even the chart trendies can't even draw an reliable trendline (too many false breaks), there seems to be no clear pattern formations...even worse one can't seem to draw any meaningful S&R lines either (too many false breaks again)...except for two (see chart) and one happens to be the one you bought into at its break.
Where to from here from a TA point of view is anyones guess...thats why I have given up being in this share at any stage...it's just too hard.

Is there comfort in knowing that the smart money have bought in (OBV Twiggs ACC/DIST) ....not with FPH it seems

EDIT
A great overall picture is a downtrend is in progress..eh?

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FPH20062012.png

BIRMANBOY

21-06-2012, 01:38 PM

Tell me it aint so!!! the reality doesnt match the chart? It must be annoying when that happens..sort of unsporting in a way. I find enough confusion as it is without letting excessive analysis make it worse. My hope is that it has a lot less distance to fall now than it has at any time in the last five years.
Yes that is a significant strong support that broke. It would scare me out as well

Brought in ..huh?? Hmmm

The good news BB is that using TA with default indicators is useless its a big TA FAI (e.g see chart below)....The FA crowd will be cheering about that..eh.

Even the chart trendies can't even draw an reliable trendline (too many false breaks), there seems to be no clear pattern formations...even worse one can't seem to draw any meaningful S&R lines either (too many false breaks again)...except for two (see chart) and one happens to be the one you bought into at its break.
Where to from here from a TA point of view is anyones guess...thats why I have given up being in this share at any stage...it's just too hard.

Is there comfort in knowing that the smart money have bought in (OBV Twiggs ACC/DIST) ....not with FPH it seems

EDIT
A great overall picture is a downtrend is in progress..eh?

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FPH20062012.png

Zaphod

21-06-2012, 01:50 PM

BIRMANBOY

21-06-2012, 02:24 PM

Its returned 12 cents a year plus imputation credits for the last 3 years which at the current price of 1.94 means approx 6.2% yield...sounds good to me. Dont really care what the share price does as long as it keeps up the dividend returns. Sanity will return at some point. As you said underlying basics seem fine.
Well it's a lot closer to zero now, so the fall couldn’t be that great. It's a real pity that a company with such great products, growth in sales and overall potential, has been such a consistently poor SP performer for such a long (more than 5 years) period of time.

Penfold

21-06-2012, 10:20 PM

crighton100

29-06-2012, 03:22 PM

I wonder if they would benefit from a buy back? Price got knocked around a lot on low turnover Jun to Dec last year. A modest buy back could have supported the share price and not scared the horses.

They should also perhaps stop issuing shares to staff every five minutes. The discount they offer them at would surely encourage staff to sell with little thought involved.

My patience is wearing thin on this one. Watched it go sideways for years... a company really not realising anything close to its potential.

I would have thought the completion of its mexico plant would contribute more to the bottom line.Also wonder if the Obama Healthplan legal success today will be positive for the company.I just bought into FPH as a longterm investment with excellent dividend income prospects.Hope I am right!

Jim

27-07-2012, 08:57 PM

I would have thought the completion of its mexico plant would contribute more to the bottom line.Also wonder if the Obama Healthplan legal success today will be positive for the company.I just bought into FPH as a longterm investment with excellent dividend income prospects.Hope I am right!

Is it a good long term hold now ??

Halebop

27-07-2012, 09:26 PM

Is it a good long term hold now ??

In theory they are in a growth industry and sales have performed OK - rising from $290m in 2006 when they earned $70m after tax to $467m in 2012. Sales growth has been flat the last four years. Profits were $64m, $6m less than 6 years ago. On the plus side, return on assets and equity remain fairly high and debts are modest. But with sales static and profits subdued, its hard to call FPH a compelling purchase. At 16 times earnings, for a company that has not demonstrated profitable growth, they are not screaming "buy me".

My take is that they are cyclical currency play if the kiwi materially drops against major trading partners (particularly the greenback).

They could also be a takeover target - the register is fairly open and global medical equipment makers could perhaps extract economies.

Technically they look weak - you could have paid the same price back in 2003. Look for support around the current level or maybe $1.80 if that fails.

Disc: Don't hold

biker

01-08-2012, 04:10 PM

Picking up these up at 1.87. Getting to be better value for upside and a reasonable divi meantime IMHO.

kiwi_on_OE

01-08-2012, 10:25 PM

modandm

02-08-2012, 09:17 AM

Per this article: http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1d4b9795/fisher-paykel-healthcare.html

it is still on over 15x, this for a company that is not growing earnings at even 5%. The company is still overvalued. I called it at $3.10 when pe was over 20x and outlook was 0 growth.

Investing in a company because it has a dividend yield of 8% is very naive, and I would suggest there is further weakness ahead - I could see a 12x multiple as being appropriate.

Compare it to a company like Apple - which is growing at a good clip and trading on 10x ex cash... You would be mad to own FPH. Same story for AIA. New Zealand investors are far to focused on simple dividned yield and should be considering what the earnings profile is over the next few years. SKC is an example of a NZ company which is growing at 5-10%pa has upside with the convention centre, is relatively ungeared, and is trading on 15x. I know which I would rather own SKC vs FPH. Quality of earnings and barriers to entry also higher with SKC.

FPH a classic 'growth story' that isn't growing - better to call it what it is - a yield story in a defensive sector - but if you do it will have to derate like I say - 10-12x.

modandm

02-08-2012, 09:20 AM

It is possible to spin the FPH slightly more positively. Revenue has been flat in NZD for the last few years, but with much of it's business in USD, it's interesting to observe that revenue in USD has increased at about 10% pa. (271m in 2008, 417m in 2012). A few years ago it needed a low NZD to make a profit, maybe now it has got to the stage where it can make a profit even with a higher NZD.

It does make a profit. No one is saying it doesn't. The problem is the profit is not growing while you are paying a multiple for it that suggests it should be actually growing its profit at 5-10% every year.

biker

02-08-2012, 10:49 AM

The multiple may well indicate the market is anticipating a growth in profit and/or a major player wishing to integrate FPH's innovation , creativity , technology and products into their business.
The share price movement could well indicate the market is getting impatient. Hopefully a case of wealth transfer from the impatient to the patient.
Time will tell.

blobbles

31-01-2013, 01:17 PM

Anyone know why the 14c drop (so far) is happening? I would have expected bad news but can't see any reason. Am I missing something?

percy

31-01-2013, 01:40 PM

Anyone know why the 14c drop (so far) is happening? I would have expected bad news but can't see any reason. Am I missing something?

Does not look too good.Share price has dropped below 30day moving average on quiet large volume.
I have been expecting good new from FPH as I see Remed in Aussie have had good increases in sales.Thought FPH would have had the same,so I am surprised.

Silverlight

31-01-2013, 04:00 PM

It's down as expectations FPH's margins will suffer on the new US medicare bid program, see ResMed in Australia, down 8% as well.

Bit overblown, good buying opportunity.

blobbles

31-01-2013, 04:08 PM

Just what I thought to Silverlight, at a pretty consistent 7% ROI... that's a hell of a lot better than banks will give me! Plus potential for upside through growth... hmmm...

Silverlight

01-02-2013, 11:37 AM

Here is a lot of the details on the new Medicare tender process:

CMS.gov press release (https://www.cms.gov/apps/media/press/factsheet.asp?Counter=4513&intNumPerPage=10&checkDate=&checkKey=&srchType=1&numDays=3500&srchOpt=0&srchData=&keywordType=All&chkNewsType=6&intPage=&showAll=&pYear=&year=&desc=&cboOrder=date)

Reductions to product bids around circa 50% lower, which is quite a big cut. This however will be to the headline products/ machines, which make up about 25% of FPH's revenues, and US only, which is 45%, so the bid process will impact roughly 12% of FPH's revenues, with potential to reduce earnings 50% for the % of these revenues that are provided through Medicare?

FPH does not breakdown sales to the level of who their direct customers are, let alone in the US alone, i.e. Medicare/ Private Hospitals/ Private Insurers/ Individuals, so hard to extrapolate further on potential impact.

The other 75% FPH's earnings are driven from consumables and accessories for their headline products, you buy a $1k - $10k humidifier, one off cost, but FPH makes more money over the long haul as the customer buys replacement tubes, seals etc, for safety, one time uses etc, I doubt these additional purchases are directed by the bid program, which probably targets which machine you purchase in the first place. Overall this is still effecting less than 12% of revenues, and FPH is in a growth industry.

This short term pull back is probably a good opportunity to add to your holding if you are underweight your targets.

stoploss

20-02-2013, 02:16 PM

Nice work , seems you can make money even with the Kiwi dollar going up ....RAK what's the story .........

Silverlight

20-02-2013, 03:59 PM

Nice work , seems you can make money even with the Kiwi dollar going up ....RAK what's the story .........

The story for Rakon is they did what Pumpkin Patch did (i.e David Jackson). They assumed they were the 'experts' and just read the experts advise, and then did whatever they wanted about the currency.

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare however (i.e Tony Carter and their risk committee) understand that they pay experts for their experts advise and follow what the currency experts say.

I have read many Asia Pacific currency reports, and they are frequent and pretty spot on. David Jackson and Bruce Irvine both believed they knew better and failed. Pumpkin Patch is better off without David Jackson on their board and running their risk committee.

Asia Pacific client list (http://www.asia-pacificrisk.com/456/LeftMenu/OurClients/RetainedClientBase/tabid/65/Default.aspx)

Overall good forecast, shows the Medicare process was a good buying opportunity, $3+ by year end, especially if we also get some currency relief.

golden city

20-02-2013, 08:52 PM

i love it., just accumulating on the right time.., justify today..

Hoop

25-02-2013, 10:55 AM

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10867487 Just thought to you RAK holders.

Nominee for the stupidest quote of the year award

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare boss (Mike Daniell) says strong kiwi may be here to stay and not part of cycle...manufacturers should view the strong New Zealand dollar as the "new normal" rather than a challenge that will eventually go away.

Its different this time......Yeah right...

It scares me to see a movers and shaker of NZ take a view against market theory. Lets hope for NZ's sake that he is a lone thinker or perhaps he just had a momentary brain implosion episode...This is one guy you don't want on your 20 year planning committee.

Yes this high dollar will probably not go away in the short term or medium term...but, it is because a long term cycle view tells you that the US$/NZ$ is in a downtrending part of the oscillation cycle. This oscillation has a very long wave length which fools people into believing NZ$ will continue to stay high.
Another market with a very long wave length is the NZ property market.

I have trouble finding NZ data and charts,,so apologies as I'm not the greatest spreadsheet user...below is a crude chart from my spreadsheet from which I typed in the data from the Reserve Bank of NZ site.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZUSexchRate1972-2011.png

Silverlight

25-02-2013, 03:17 PM

Nominee for the stupidest quote of the year award

Its different this time......Yeah right...

It scares me to see a movers and shaker of NZ take a view against market theory. Lets hope for NZ's sake that he is a lone thinker or perhaps he just had a momentary brain implosion episode...This is one guy you don't want on your 20 year planning committee.

Hoop agree, long term 5 -10 years, the NZ dollar will retrace to a fair value. However I disagree on your view of the quote. The article seems to take Mike Daniell out of context, within the wider business to focus on one view. He says maybe here to stay, i.e. if you are an exporter plan for the next 5 years of a strong NZ dollar. It doesn't mean FPH are not planning for a reversion, they are just worst case scenario planning, prepare for the worst. Mike Daniell is a very experienced and competetant CEO for FPH, and has been with the company 30 years.

Also not he is not on the risk committee, which is responsible for the high level risk management, including currency management, and I rate their risk committee has one of the better risk committees amongst NZX listed firms.

percy

25-02-2013, 03:34 PM

Well I have a record of being 100% wrong on currency.
My view is NZ $ will continue to out perform the US$.
The last 40 years have been out of kilter.
We will see the NZ dollar return to it's true value,and I expect it to be twice the value of US$ over the next few years as US printing money will devalue the US$.
Manufacturing in NZ will get more difficult and we will see more of FPH manufacturing move out of NZ.
I see the US developing more of UK sickness.Lack of new jobs,more people out of work,and Local Govt and The Govt failing to balance their books.Think California.

BIRMANBOY

25-02-2013, 03:40 PM

Drongo by name but NOT by nature. Agree too many worriers out there..just get on with it.
dont understand you 2, forget about dollar changes, the dollar will change regardless,just get down to business.

BIRMANBOY

25-02-2013, 03:48 PM

You can nominate all you want but personally I agree completely with him. Having a chief exec who recognises the global reality and is not living in "hope" makes him a smart bugger. The last thing the US wants is a strong Dollar so longing for the "rightful" position of the NZD is just buying into the good old days will return.. Yeh right!!
Nominee for the stupidest quote of the year award

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare boss (Mike Daniell) says strong kiwi may be here to stay and not part of cycle...manufacturers should view the strong New Zealand dollar as the "new normal" rather than a challenge that will eventually go away.

Its different this time......Yeah right...

It scares me to see a movers and shaker of NZ take a view against market theory. Lets hope for NZ's sake that he is a lone thinker or perhaps he just had a momentary brain implosion episode...This is one guy you don't want on your 20 year planning committee.

Yes this high dollar will probably not go away in the short term or medium term...but, it is because a long term cycle view tells you that the US$/NZ$ is in a downtrending part of the oscillation cycle. This oscillation has a very long wave length which fools people into believing NZ$ will continue to stay high.
Another market with a very long wave length is the NZ property market.

I have trouble finding NZ data and charts,,so apologies as I'm not the greatest spreadsheet user...below is a crude chart from my spreadsheet from which I typed in the data from the Reserve Bank of NZ site.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZUSexchRate1972-2011.png

Huskeez

20-05-2013, 11:23 AM

Hope some of you traders caught this break out last week :) up 10.95% since last week, some big off market buyers!

Huskeez

20-05-2013, 11:39 AM

Good ol' FX rate coming into play now ;)Nice to see , wonder where the new resistance will form , 3.20 from oct 2011 maybe? , Time will tell xoxo gossip girl

Microsloth

20-05-2013, 11:57 AM

Good start to week and on Thursday FPH release financial results for the year....

Holding

Anna Naum

20-05-2013, 12:02 PM

First NZ upgraded to BUY

gv1

21-05-2013, 05:40 PM

NZ Herald
Shares of Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, which has lifted its full-year guidance three times, rose to a two-year…

Huskeez

22-05-2013, 05:13 PM

Results out tomorrow!!

BIRMANBOY

23-05-2013, 10:28 AM

Yes done well....should be even better when they bring out the new Ap app (texts wearers advising them to turn over)...then it'll be up..up.
Wow, a great result. Well done to holders. Thought this one was too sleepy to own (pardon the pun), but it's a great company

gv1

23-05-2013, 11:10 AM

Wow, thought only investors in RYM were rewarded but made similar or more gains in this one.

Huskeez

23-05-2013, 11:56 AM

Beautiful result :-D

Huskeez

11-06-2013, 04:50 PM

And the run continues! New 52 week high

Huskeez

20-06-2013, 11:11 PM

These presentations must be going well, new highs each week on good volume. :-D

Jim

21-06-2013, 08:17 PM

Hi I see that this Fisher stock is way down south, time to accumulate some ???

If any of those investors were to bought in on my comments they would have to take some profits now and laugh all the way to the bank

Joshuatree

21-06-2013, 09:21 PM

Imm stilll inn Jimmm and im m "back in black". in the blackk but don't feel like laughing too many other stocks in the Red....lol. am considering selling and buying Resmed on the ASX. (that last bit was the serious part) cheers JT

percy

23-06-2013, 03:59 PM

Yes.
I gives the brokers time to get you on the share register.Usually it takes two or three days.
You don't get the divie if you are not on the register.
Should you be purchasing shares, make sure you ask your broker whether you get the divie or not.
ie If you thought you were buying cum divie on the 20th you would have missed the divie.

randomguy

23-06-2013, 04:04 PM

Hi, a newbie here. As a smaller player I have managed to use this holding to catch up on my PPL loses last year. Does anyone want to pick an exit price here for a short term holder?

noodles

23-06-2013, 04:32 PM

Hi Randomguy, welcome to the forum

First question - do you need to sell? If not, hold on to this winner until the story changes. Currency might drop to 72c over the next 6 months, this could rocket up even more.

Second question - I wouldn't view FPH as the stock that enabled you to catch up on PPL losses. Forget PPL. Forget those losses. Don't let past behaviour cloud future potential for a different stock. Your objective is to grow wealth, not catch up on previous losses, and if FPH is growing wealth then you shouldn't sell.

FPH looks like a winner because of the currency changes. Sell when the story changes or it is becomes grievously overvalued. Not sure what that is, because I don't know enough about the earnings growth for FPH, especially with the positive currency gains. But you'll know when everyone starts rushing into the stock at prices well above you've paid.... :-)

Well done on the FPH gains, and welcome again to the forum.

I'd sell half. Then I would place a trailing stop loss on the rest to ensure your profits remain. You want to make sure your trailing stop loss is far enough away that you don't get knocked out of the trade with some volatility.

Just my opinion.

percy

23-06-2013, 05:54 PM

Hi Randomguy, welcome to the forum

First question - do you need to sell? If not, hold on to this winner until the story changes. Currency might drop to 72c over the next 6 months, this could rocket up even more.

Second question - I wouldn't view FPH as the stock that enabled you to catch up on PPL losses. Forget PPL. Forget those losses. Don't let past behaviour cloud future potential for a different stock. Your objective is to grow wealth, not catch up on previous losses, and if FPH is growing wealth then you shouldn't sell.

FPH looks like a winner because of the currency changes. Sell when the story changes or it is becomes grievously overvalued. Not sure what that is, because I don't know enough about the earnings growth for FPH, especially with the positive currency gains. But you'll know when everyone starts rushing into the stock at prices well above you've paid.... :-)

Well done on the FPH gains, and welcome again to the forum.

Randomguy,
Welcome,I think Sparky has given you very sound advice.

randomguy

23-06-2013, 06:01 PM

Wow, thanks guys. I have been lurking on this forum for quite some time but not joined. I have no need to sell so will hold on and watch and learn as I go. Thanks.

noodles

23-06-2013, 07:18 PM

Randomguy,

The key is finding a trading plan that suits your personality and circumstances. I like sparkey's plan,but it doesn't suit me.

randomguy

23-06-2013, 07:41 PM

That why this forum is so good for new people. Lots of options. I really need to concentrate on getting more funds to invest. Then look at the options of what stocks to buy. I am not dealing with meagbucks here but ALL funds are hard to save at the moment. As long as I am moving forward then its better than most. I think I will hold for now. Should I take dividends as cash or sign up to the reinvestment option?

randomguy

23-06-2013, 07:51 PM

Thanks, Im saving for the new stock pick. I want to have some diversification even if it is a few smaller holdings.

Zaphod

23-06-2013, 09:19 PM

Thanks, Im saving for the new stock pick. I want to have some diversification even if it is a few smaller holdings.

Also remember: Don't invest funds that you can't afford to lose.

I've seen a number of people caught out after they invested funds that they should have put aside for other things (e.g. Medical costs).

modandm

24-06-2013, 05:02 AM

Quality company, quality result, great long term hold

average company, subscale vs larger competitor which continues to outperform in both sales and shareprice. Good theme behind it, and yes a good play on a weaker currency.

You want to know why FPH is going up look at Resmed share price.

Schrodinger

24-06-2013, 11:10 AM

A useful thing to do is have a return figure you would like to achieve and track your investments on a spreadsheet. For example you might want to achieve a CAGR of 25% for your holdings.

Remember this return is only locked in when you sell.

This can be a useful yardstick for thinking about selling. This gets tricky when you back some growth stocks so I suggest applying this to established dividend payers with consistent earnings.

Huskeez

24-06-2013, 05:59 PM

Woop! $3.50 is near, wonder if we will see the 5 year high of $3.53 back in April 2010 taken out :)Regarding the exchange rate, i really dont see much of a pattern concerning USD/NZD - FPHI am an amateur in trading and am not saying that you guys are wrong, so please one of you older guys help me understand (cause i know im definetly missing something)Either way i am holding and bought in once FPH broke the $2.75 resistance level (based on trend following/price action) but would be good to know :)

Joshuatree

02-08-2013, 01:18 PM

Good result from Resmed on ASX today may be having a flow on effect on FPH .

Jim

26-11-2013, 09:59 PM

Hi I see that this Fisher stock is way down south, time to accumulate some ???
Hi I think it is time for me to take some profits lol

couta1

21-01-2014, 10:48 AM

FPH hits $4

Joshuatree

22-01-2014, 04:18 PM

Now $4.10 and with our $ so strong against other currencies!!.

percy

22-01-2014, 07:11 PM

Now $4.10 and with our $ so strong against other currencies!!.

I am not complaining.!!

Silverlight

14-02-2014, 10:08 AM

The story for Rakon is they did what Pumpkin Patch did (i.e David Jackson). They assumed they were the 'experts' and just read the experts advise, and then did whatever they wanted about the currency.

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare however (i.e Tony Carter and their risk committee) understand that they pay experts for their experts advise and follow what the currency experts say.

I have read many Asia Pacific currency reports, and they are frequent and pretty spot on. David Jackson and Bruce Irvine both believed they knew better and failed. Pumpkin Patch is better off without David Jackson on their board and running their risk committee.

Asia Pacific client list (http://www.asia-pacificrisk.com/456/LeftMenu/OurClients/RetainedClientBase/tabid/65/Default.aspx)

Overall good forecast, shows the Medicare process was a good buying opportunity, $3+ by year end, especially if we also get some currency relief.

I have halved my holding, while some analysts have now forecast a high target price (nearly $5), this stock has had a very good run, and reflects no downside risk for the currency. Was great buying @ $2.50, now its looking pretty expensive above $4. Trading on almost a 30 P/E.

noodles

14-02-2014, 10:10 AM

I have halved my holding, while some analysts have now forecast a high target price (nearly $5), this stock has had a very good run, and reflects no downside risk for the currency. Was great buying @ $2.50, now its looking pretty expensive above $4. Trading on almost a 30 P/E.

Nice Trade. If you are looking for place to place for new funds, perhaps you might like to look at SOM.AX. Same sector, better growth coming from SOM.

Silverlight

14-02-2014, 10:19 AM

Nice Trade. If you are looking for place to place for new funds, perhaps you might like to look at SOM.AX. Same sector, better growth coming from SOM.

Thanks for recommendation Noodles, probably a bit small for my liking, in market cap, and in liquidity volumes, if I can't buy or sell $100k worth on the book, I generally try to avoid.

noodles

14-02-2014, 10:28 AM

Thanks for recommendation Noodles, probably a bit small for my liking, in market cap, and in liquidity volumes, if I can't buy or sell $100k worth on the book, I generally try to avoid.

It wasn't a recommendation:) Just an idea.

Yes, SOM is for those without big money to invest. I note that there has been decent liquidity of late. The order book probably doesn't reflect volume.

I like your approach to FPH. Please keep us informed on your next purchase.

samdaman

14-02-2014, 12:12 PM

where are you getting a 15% eps growth? I just did a quick DCF on this and it seems to be massively overvalued? I stand to be corrected (especially because I'm new and the DCF was rough) but their FCF's over the last few years seem to be decreasing + over the last say 8-9 years have been rather similar rather than showing growth? I must be missing something because from what my quick squiz shows they're looking rather average?

noodles

15-02-2014, 12:02 PM

thanks noodles I had a look at SOM nice revenue growth, but FPH more attractive in the eps growth. SOM share price up almost 50% in last 6 months me thinks the ship has sailed.

snapiti,

I think the recent rise has been due to 3 factors:
1. The last quarterly produced revenue growth of 43% over a year ago
2. Intelligent investor produced a pre-tax earning announcement of $12.4 million (post tax of 9mill)
3. An expectation that management will upgrade FY14 revenue estimate

SOM still have a market cap of just $74 mill and share price of 1.65.

If we apply a pe of 30 to SOM for FY18 earnings, you get a shareprice of 6.23.

I know there is a lot of water under the bridge to get there, but there is potential. Perhaps more than FPH given the relative small size currently.

Microsloth

18-02-2014, 09:44 AM

More good news

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9734065/F-P-Healthcare-lifts-forecast-expands-Mexico-plant

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare has raised its earnings guidance and brought forward plans to expand its manufacturing facility in Mexico.
The firm's annual profit for the year to March 31 is now seen at $97 million, up from the November forecast of $90-$95m.
"Demand during the second half has been very encouraging, particularly for our Simplus, Eson and Pilairo Q masks, which are used for the treatment of OSA,'' chief executive Michael Daniell said.

JayRiggs

18-02-2014, 09:52 AM

Yes very nice to see the good news.
Wonder when they will increase the dividend? It's been sitting on 12.4cps for many years.

percy

18-02-2014, 12:03 PM

I just love earnings up grades.Very pleasing.

BlackPeter

18-02-2014, 12:29 PM

still over valued price ... trade the swings of this stock going forward, whatch out for kiwi possible weakening next year if our debt stays constant.. this was ai big trade from 1.90 to 3.80

but here its p/e is still to high, its now fully priced even for future earnings

tend to agree. ft.com annual SP target is between 2.91 and 4.90 (with a mean value of 4.10). Good company, good product, promising potential, but already quite high PE. At the current share price of 4.13 does it in my books NOT look like a "BUY".

Discl: On my Watchlist, but do not hold ...

JayRiggs

18-02-2014, 12:43 PM

Yes agree it is overpriced at this point in time. I've held FPH for 3yrs and it's been a great run up. I've reinvested dividends via DRP, but at these prices, I'm thinking of taking cash over DRP.
I would still like to hold this in case the USD ever comes back up again.

1leon

18-02-2014, 01:02 PM

I just love earnings up grades.Very pleasing.
But is an an upgrade really warranted? Previous indication $90-$95m new $97--surely coming in, if it does, at $97m is pretty close to range up to $95m. Are we really now going to see upgrades for companies for the sake of $2m?

Bjauck

18-02-2014, 01:09 PM

,They have delivered very good figures, despite the NZD perhaps being at the strongest point in the cycle. If the NZD is at the top of its cycle, then going forward FPH figures will have a tail wind to help them along in addition to its products being in greater demand than anticipated.

Snow Leopard

18-02-2014, 01:49 PM

But is an an upgrade really warranted? Previous indication $90-$95m new $97--surely coming in, if it does, at $97m is pretty close to range up to $95m. Are we really now going to see upgrades for companies for the sake of $2m?

If they gave guidance of $90-95M then they have to update the market if they know that the result is likely to be outside that range.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

1leon

18-02-2014, 02:20 PM

If they gave guidance of $90-95M then they have to update the market if they know that the result is likely to be outside that range.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Thanks but is "approximately $97m" subject to continuation of exchange rates clearly outside $95m. What range does approximately $97m cover? These are pretty fine calculations if you have to be within 1-2%.

1leon

18-02-2014, 02:21 PM

Snow Leopard

18-02-2014, 02:31 PM

Harvey Specter

18-02-2014, 02:38 PM

I must say an announcement to upgarde the profit which is only 2.5% out of the range is a bit of a surprise.Under continuous disclosure, if any statement made is incorrect, it must be corrected. As PT said, if it was a drop, you would want the disclosure.

1leon

18-02-2014, 04:19 PM

Ok before you had $92.5M +/-2.5M and now you have $97M +/- (say) $2M

You sure would want to know if went to approximately $88M, would you not?

So go with it, share and enjoy (http://hhgproject.org/entries/shareandenjoy.html).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Frankly no. I have never made any decision based on a 2% movement in profit up or down. If approximately $88m encompasses $90m we are no further ahead. Add to that currency movement has been a big factor in FPH results, or lack of result, over many years.

Snow Leopard

18-02-2014, 05:09 PM

Frankly no. I have never made any decision based on a 2% movement in profit up or down. If approximately $88m encompasses $90m we are no further ahead. Add to that currency movement has been a big factor in FPH results, or lack of result, over many years.

To put my final word in on the need for this profit upgrade announcement.

There are NZX rules with guidance notes (https://www.nzx.com/market-regulation/rules/nzsx-and-nzdx-listing-rules) that FPH has to follow (the rules bit) and this is one of those circumstances (see Section 10 of the rules and the Continuous Disclosure Guidance Note).

I have checked, and there is no waiver even in circumstances where one of their shareholders has a poor grasp of arithmetic.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Microsloth

15-05-2014, 11:07 PM

Looking forward to results 23 MAY 2014, been a good invest for me so far.

Why today is a good day to buy Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp Ltd

http://www.fool.com.au/2014/05/15/why-today-is-a-good-day-to-buy-fisher-paykel-healthcare-corp-ltd/

Microsloth

23-05-2014, 09:30 AM

FPH delivers record full year result, net profit up 26%

• 26% growth in net profit after tax to a record NZ$97.1 million, 46% growth in constant currency.
• 12% growth in operating revenue to a record NZ$623.4 million, 13% growth in constant currency.
• Double digit operating revenue growth in both of the company’s major product groups – Respiratory and acute care (RAC) 14%, Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) 15% in constant currency.
• New RAC applications consumables revenue outside of invasive ventilation grew particularly strongly at 29% in constant currency.
• Strong performance from new OSA masks, Eson, Pilairo Q and Simplus, drove mask operating revenue growth of 23% in constant currency.
• Gross margin improvement of 327 basis points for the full year, 393 bps in constant currency.
• Fully imputed final dividend of 7.0 cps.
• Investment in R&D increased by 18% to NZ$54.1 million, representing 8.7% of operating revenue.

psychic

23-05-2014, 09:37 AM

conference call today scheduled to begin at 10:00am

To listen to the webcast, access the company’s website at www.fphcare.com/investor. Please allow extra time prior to the webcast to visit the site and download the streaming media software if required. An online archive of the event will be available approximately two hours after the webcast and will remain on the site for two weeks.

To attend the conference call, participants will need to dial in to one of the numbers below at least 5 minutes prior to the scheduled call time and identify yourself to the operator. When prompted, please quote the conference code of: 40710638.

New Zealand Toll Free 0800 446 046

psychic

23-05-2014, 09:39 AM

Does forecast revenue growth 2.7% seem conservative?

Roberto

23-05-2014, 09:45 AM

Roberto

23-05-2014, 10:03 AM

Though apparently the market doesn't feel quite the same way...

kiora

23-05-2014, 11:58 AM

Headwinds on currency with forward cover running out but otherwise excellent OMHO

BlackPeter

24-05-2014, 12:28 PM

Though apparently the market doesn't feel quite the same way...

great company and lots of potential but still feels somewhat dear at current P/E and predicted growth rates ... though could be a great buy if you expect the NZD to drop (some analysts say it will, but I am not sure about that).

Joshuatree

24-05-2014, 08:22 PM

Holding from low $2's . Its in a huge growth industry, people are getting fatter faster esp americans and when they get fatter sleep apnoea arrives. Holding Resmed too.

Joshuatree

26-05-2014, 11:16 AM

Craigs have a 1 year target of $4.91. Good bounce off 50DMA on big vol up 7c to $4.30 at pit.

Jim

26-05-2014, 05:00 PM

Craigs have a 1 year target of $4.91. Good bounce off 50DMA on big vol up 7c to $4.30 at pit.

FPH could be a takeover target ??

Zaphod

26-05-2014, 05:38 PM

FPH could be a takeover target ??

That's what I'm picking will eventually happen. Along with an excellent product & organisational reputation, FPH have a portfolio of patents that are ripe for the plucking.

I was on a flight back from SFO once with a sales person who worked for one of the US-based competitors. Speaking off-record, she said their business was VERY impressed with the FPH products even though their own company had a much greater market share.

There is some turbulence ahead with the currency hedging so unless something like this occurs, I suspect the SP will stagnate or decline for a while.

DISC: Now sold 50% of my holding.

Joshuatree

26-05-2014, 06:35 PM

What company was that Z?

kiora

27-05-2014, 06:52 AM

Craigs have a 1 year target of $4.91. Good bounce off 50DMA on big vol up 7c to $4.30 at pit.

FPH is a good long term hold
http://www.morgo.co.nz/morgo-stories/fisher-paykel-healthcare
1)10% of TO spent on research & development
2)Drive towards Efficiency in Healthcare
3)Drive to getting better result will lower cost of healthcare
3)Market has significant growth opportunities. It expects its patients using its devices to increase from 7 to 30 million in the next 10 years

percy

27-05-2014, 07:26 AM

FPH is a good long term hold
http://www.morgo.co.nz/morgo-stories/fisher-paykel-healthcare
1)10% of TO spent on research & development
2)Drive towards Efficiency in Healthcare
3)Drive to getting better result will lower cost of healthcare
3)Market has significant growth opportunities. It expects its patients using its devices to increase from 7 to 30 million in the next 10 years

Thanks for the link.
I am pleased they spend such a high % of revenue on R&D.
I did not realise their market was expected to grow so much in the next 10 years.

Joshuatree

30-05-2014, 01:58 PM

A new high ( 2 years) $4.55 so far today with great vol re 455,000 so far today pe 25.3 (nzx). Is someone building up a stake? Or just the effect of dropping $NZ. Check the chart out a great diagonal slash from bottom to top.

alistar_mid

30-05-2014, 02:32 PM

happy about this, cancels out my HLG losses

Jim

30-05-2014, 08:47 PM

Joshuatree

06-06-2014, 09:19 PM

New high today on huge volume 2.8 million plus shares traded. 7c div to come.

Joshuatree

11-06-2014, 10:47 PM

Presentation Out a few points...
Sleep apnoea 43% of rev . They say masks are stylish and smart; i say "yeah, right"
Respiratory and circulation 54%
111 US patents 220 pending
459 ROW 306 ROW pending
Own 100 acres in Auckland with 885,000 sq feet buildings and 200,000 sq feet manufacturing in Mexico
34% pretax returns on equity going for 40% for 2015(confirm this second fig yourself please)
re 54$ mill R&D
Operating profit headwinds of NZ$32 million in 2015 from reduced hedging & less favourable spot rates
So NPAT and rev 2015 est to be the same!!!

Jim

16-06-2014, 07:00 PM

New high today on huge volume 2.8 million plus shares traded. 7c div to come.

When is the ex dividend date ?

Lost in space

16-06-2014, 07:18 PM

When is the ex dividend date ?

Ex dividend 18th June

Joshuatree

16-06-2014, 07:26 PM

Jim all you need to do to keep yourself informed is click on FPH on the All Securities page on the NZX and scroll down to Dividends- Upcoming and Historical.

Who's selling cum div?

Lost in space

16-06-2014, 07:33 PM

Jim all you need to do to keep yourself informed is click on FPH on the All Securities page on the NZX and scroll down to Dividends- Upcoming and Historical.

Who's selling cum div?

Whose an idiot? (reference to selling). Here's a 'growth' stock thats actually making money and paying dividends. Rather have $50k in FPH than GEO and the likes.

Joshuatree

16-06-2014, 07:44 PM

Any other idiot thoughts. Price sure is getting up there. Just about at craigs price target for one example.I have $xx invested in FPH lol.

percy

16-06-2014, 08:06 PM

Any other idiot thoughts. Price sure is getting up there. Just about at craigs price target for one example.I have $xx invested in FPH lol.

Well we spend a lot of time researching for "great stocks".Every now and again we find them.They make up for the ones we get wrong.The hardest part is not listening to noise or getting nervous.The trend is your friend.Wait until the trend changes,before thinking of taking profits.
Just sit back and enjoy the ride.!!! For music to listen to on your ride may I suggest;"Hallelujah [here she comes]" by U2.

Lost in space

16-06-2014, 08:44 PM

Any other idiot thoughts. Price sure is getting up there. Just about at craigs price target for one example.I have $xx invested in FPH lol.

Brokers target prices don't cut much ice with me. Borne out of curiosity I did some research a number of years ago on brokers target prices and the the anecdotal evidence was that their targets were pretty underwhelming. Interesting to track the past 12 months and see whether they have upped their game.

Joshuatree

16-06-2014, 11:34 PM

Well we spend a lot of time researching for "great stocks".Every now and again we find them.They make up for the ones we get wrong.The hardest part is not listening to noise or getting nervous.The trend is your friend.Wait until the trend changes,before thinking of taking profits.
Just sit back and enjoy the ride.!!! For music to listen to on your ride may I suggest;"Hallelujah [here she comes]" by U2.

Cheers percy Trend is your friend till the bend at the end:) Been a good ride ,tho watching closely for any trend change 'selloff etc.

Joshuatree

23-06-2014, 12:51 PM

Down re 34c since going X. Any Idiots take profits at the top and waiting to buy back? Smart idiots;)

Lost in space

23-06-2014, 01:08 PM

Down re 34c since going X. Any Idiots take profits at the top and waiting to buy back? Smart idiots;)

Probably the idiots using hindsight to really invest/trade remarkably well. Those idiots investing with a reasonable time frame have seen revenue double every 5 years with ensuing benefits flowing to the share price. I can also give last weeks winning lotto numbers to anyone interested...

Joshuatree

23-06-2014, 01:17 PM

Im an idiot to ignore my gut instincts, average down. Never mind longterm longterm.

percy

23-06-2014, 02:24 PM

Although the MACD on charts has turned down,the share price is above both the 50 day and the 200 day moving averages.
Will have to have a confirmed break below the 200 day moving average for me to be concerned.

macduffy

02-08-2014, 09:04 AM

FPH's Aussie competitor, Resmed, finding tough conditions in the USA.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/resmeds-poor-us-result-caps-tough-year-20140801-zzbc1.html

I don't hold either stock.

Joshuatree

21-08-2014, 11:32 AM

F&P Healthcare lifts guidance 3 percent on falling kiwi

Wednesday 20th August 2014

Text too small? (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/text-too-small.html)

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare raised its annual profit forecast by 3 percent, saying the New Zealand dollar is boosting the value of respiratory and breathing apparatus sold overseas. The shares rose to the highest in at least two decades.
Profit is now expected to be $100 million in the year ended March, 31, 2015, based on an exchange range of the kiwi at 84 US cents, from its May guidance of flat earnings of $97 million, with the currency calculated at 86 US cents, the Auckland-based company said in a statement. Revenue would be $650 million, up from its May forecast of $640 million, and 4.3 percent above 2014 sales.
The lift to its profit forecast is still at a slower pace of growth than the previous year, when annual profit rose 26 percent to $97.1 million, on a 12 percent gain in sales to $623.4 million.
The medical device manufacturer exports 98 percent of its product and blames the historically high kiwi/US dollar cross with crimping earnings growth. The local currency climbed to 88.35 US cents in July, close to its post-float high of 88.40 cents, but has since fallen some 4 US cents, to trade recently at 84.16 US cents.
At current exchange rates the company forecast revenue to be up about 14 percent to $315 million in the six months ending Sept. 30, for a 60 percent profit increase to $45 million.

Close to a new high. Thanks percy for encouraging me to keep when i was becoming impatient/fiddly some time ago:t_up:

sideburns66

26-08-2014, 04:53 PM

FPH pushing $5 and at and all time(?) high.
Happy to be holding, especially as the NZD falls. My only wish is that I had more!
:t_up:

Roberto

26-08-2014, 05:03 PM

FPH pushing $5 and at and all time(?) high.
Happy to be holding, especially as the NZD falls. My only wish is that I had more!
:t_up:

Yep, what a great run. Amazing how little attention this stock gets on these forums. Consistent, solid performance is not conducive to banter, it would seem.

winner69

26-08-2014, 05:07 PM

FPH pushing $5 and at and all time(?) high.
Happy to be holding, especially as the NZD falls. My only wish is that I had more!
:t_up:

$5 looks like all time high

Only time I have ever had FPH was that for a few days in that spike in 2001 shortly after the FPA/FPH split. Nobody knew how to value them and things went wild for a while

Chart pre 2001 meaningless as was the F&P business

nzspeak

27-08-2014, 09:28 PM

"Amazing how little attention this stock gets on these forums" I've often wondered that myself. Perhaps a strategy of only investing in stocks which don't get mentioned a lot in this forum could be the legendary 'holy grail' of investing! Maybe our posts, or lack of them, will feed the quants of the future.

percy

12-09-2014, 02:00 PM

With "currency headwind turns to tailwind" Craigs' retain their "buy" with target price raised from $4.91 to $5.56.

kiora

20-11-2014, 09:33 AM

Revenue up
Gross Profit margin up
R & D up to 9.9% T?0
Dividend up
Hedging down
Great result
High PE justified
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?T=_3U6LiBUO_TfnTUMCAXptA&E=NZSE&S=FPH&N=257879

percy

20-11-2014, 07:06 PM

Revenue up
Gross Profit margin up
R & D up to 9.9% T?0
Dividend up
Hedging down
Great result
High PE justified
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?T=_3U6LiBUO_TfnTUMCAXptA&E=NZSE&S=FPH&N=257879

Thanks for the link.
Just when you thought FPH could not get better,they just did.
Upping the spend on R&D and a great deal of new products coming to market means a very bright future.

kiora

20-11-2014, 07:50 PM

Thanks for the link.
Just when you thought FPH could not get better,they just did.
Upping the spend on R&D and a great deal of new products coming to market means a very bright future.

& dollar dropping.SP always looks expensive except in hindsight :)

percy

20-11-2014, 08:19 PM

Yes in hindsight our foresight has proved to be correct.!??! lol.

nzspeak

24-11-2014, 11:28 PM

How high is it going to go? shame this stock is never mentioned on the forum. If it was the people here would make a killing. I'd hate a newbee to buy the stocks that are talked about.

longy

25-11-2014, 12:27 AM

Steady pace won the race... As long as their R&D is sound and NZ's currency is kept low... she could keep steadily upward for a little while yet IMO.

kiora

25-11-2014, 02:07 AM

How high is it going to go? shame this stock is never mentioned on the forum. If it was the people here would make a killing. I'd hate a newbee to buy the stocks that are talked about.

More likely rate of increase will taper off a bit.Share price stayed in doldrums from 2005-2013 even though company was tracking well ???

Biscuit

25-11-2014, 09:55 AM

It's had a very good run and is still trending up, but does its growth rate justify the PE? Its currently one of my biggest holdings and when it stops trending up I'll be cutting back a bit.

nzspeak

25-11-2014, 09:57 PM

"It's had a very good run and is still trending up, but does its growth rate justify the PE? Its currently one of my biggest holdings and when it stops trending up I'll be cutting back a bit"

When I joined the sharemarket I bought just fph with leverage. Sold on the way up- dumbest thting i've ever done. Who knows where its going but if i learnt anything, it's not sell fph shares on an up trend.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon1.png
It's had a very good run and is still trending up, but does its growth rate justify the PE? Its currently one of my biggest holdings and when it stops trending up I'll be cutting back a bit.

Biscuit

25-11-2014, 10:52 PM

Yes, I agree, why sell in an uptrend, but you might want to be vigilant for the end of the uptrend.

nzspeak

25-11-2014, 11:06 PM

i've got a $5.00 stop loss on the rest of my fph shares- im worried its going to hit it. Go the $US!!

klid

26-11-2014, 02:28 AM

How high is it going to go? shame this stock is never mentioned on the forum. If it was the people here would make a killing. I'd hate a newbee to buy the stocks that are talked about.

Cos it's boring :P - I've always liked it, bought at $1.91. Picked in stock picking competition.

Jim

09-12-2014, 10:18 PM

Cos it's boring :P - I've always liked it, bought at $1.91. Picked in stock picking competition.

It had broken through the $6. WOW I wonder when is the next ceilling

Biscuit

10-12-2014, 11:04 AM

It had broken through the $6. WOW I wonder when is the next ceilling

And still rising, like its attached to a balloon. Hope nzspeak has reset his stop loss, surely its getting ahead of itself?

samdaman

27-12-2014, 01:55 PM

And still rising, like its attached to a balloon. Hope nzspeak has reset his stop loss, surely its getting ahead of itself?

Hi I was just talking to a friend about this stock and wondering the exact same thing. I put together a quick valuation on this stock over on my blog. It's rough but I think this stock may have gotten way ahead of itself. I could be wrong though, always looking for ways to improve my valuations.

FPH Valuation (https://marketstuffs.wordpress.com/2014/12/27/fisher-and-paykel-healthcare-fph-nz/)

dagoldtoof

27-12-2014, 02:08 PM

Bought in at $2.00, close to my heart.........Will hold...

BlackPeter

27-12-2014, 02:16 PM

Hi I was just talking to a friend about this stock and wondering the exact same thing. I put together a quick valuation on this stock over on my blog. It's rough but I think this stock may have gotten way ahead of itself. I could be wrong though, always looking for ways to improve my valuations.

FPH Valuation (https://marketstuffs.wordpress.com/2014/12/27/fisher-and-paykel-healthcare-fph-nz/)

Quick check with the Financial Times - analysts 12 month targets are between $3.78 and $6.90 (with a median of $5.50). Consensus recommendation "Hold". Personally I think that the trend over the last year was mainly a self full filling prophecy (too many TA-punters on the stock?) and the current price is inflated. However difficult to predict when a bubble will burst - can take weeks, months, years ...

The 2 year trend looks great, but if you take the 5 year picture it looks different - did we just reach the peak?

Discl: Watching - and prepared to buy in at a reasonable price (not now ...).

MAC

27-12-2014, 02:29 PM

Hi I was just talking to a friend about this stock and wondering the exact same thing. I put together a quick valuation on this stock over on my blog. It's rough but I think this stock may have gotten way ahead of itself. I could be wrong though, always looking for ways to improve my valuations.

FPH Valuation (https://marketstuffs.wordpress.com/2014/12/27/fisher-and-paykel-healthcare-fph-nz/)

That’s interesting Samdaman, I was this morning going through a similar exercise to try and reconcile why Craig’s had picked FPH for 2015 as I cannot resolve a comfortable DCF above $4.55.

I get the two year chart, the momentum and the USD story, and it may be that sentiment carries FPH forward further ?

The brokers have better access to company information than the rest of us and what can seem mysterious can be news yet to manifest, but from a valuation perspective with what’s on the table at present the SP seems increasingly stretched about here unless we are about to see a quantum leap in sales or margin growth or both, are we ?

Harvey Specter

27-12-2014, 04:34 PM

Those growth rates might be a bit low as the may get that with currency rate movements alone. What's growth been the last few years? (10% the last 2 years but flat the previous 3 years)

Holding and thinking of locking in half my gains.

kizame

27-12-2014, 07:15 PM

BFG

27-12-2014, 10:05 PM

bunter

27-12-2014, 10:12 PM

My system's valuation of FPH is $2.79, similar to yours.

samdaman

28-12-2014, 09:16 AM

Hey Sam, good to see you're still going at it and on ST! One point: have you considered the impact of continuef USD strength on earnings? This is a major headwind for FPH and I see no end to it anytime soon.

Cheers,

BFG (ex-Moose)

Not specifically. However my estimates were very large and the value came out quite under the current price I.e their cash flows would need to grow significantly larger YOY to be valued near the $6 mark. The growth in FCFs (at least for my spreadsheet of smoke and mirrors) would need to be around 12% annually. If you're confident on that sort of growth then I can see the stock being fairly valued currently.

Cheers mate
Sam

BFG

28-12-2014, 10:31 AM

Not specifically. However my estimates were very large and the value came out quite under the current price I.e their cash flows would need to grow significantly larger YOY to be valued near the $6 mark. The growth in FCFs (at least for my spreadsheet of smoke and mirrors) would need to be around 12% annually. If you're confident on that sort of growth then I can see the stock being fairly valued currently.

Cheers mate
Sam

True. I'd suspect if the fair value estimate is much lower than the actual price then something else is driving the price upwards, hence my suggestion of the USD appreciation over the past 8 months.

Either that or someone with too much capital likes to play the moving average lines upwards, meaning the market is totally inefficient!

Remember, when a stock is priced to perfection, any reason is a reason to sell ;)

percy

28-12-2014, 11:49 AM

Revenue up
Gross Profit margin up
R & D up to 9.9% T?0
Dividend up
Hedging down
Great result
High PE justified
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?T=_3U6LiBUO_TfnTUMCAXptA&E=NZSE&S=FPH&N=257879

FPH is growing market share in the rapidly expanding US market, against competitor RMD of Australia who trade on a PE of 27.3.
The huge spend on R & D is resulting in growing revenues and market share from new products.
The Mexican production and strengthening US $ is adding to greater profits.
Their products are becoming more widely used worldwide,in the growing healthcare sector.

Zaphod

29-12-2014, 11:47 AM

BlackPeter

29-12-2014, 12:15 PM

I'm surprised that FPH hasn't been target for acquisition by one of their competitors in the industry. Lots of juicy IP, well regarded by competitors in the industry (based on discussion's I've had with salespeople) and a proven track record.

You are surprised nobody wants to make a take over offer for FPH - really?

The recent share price growth (60% last year) well exceeded the average revenue growth of roughly 8% pa (as well as any realistic expectations of future growth). In addition to that - the high NZD makes it a still more costly proposition for international suitors. NZ$3.5 billion are even for big international players no small change.

I guess this seems to be one of the examples where the NZ market values a domestic company higher than the Rest of the World would do. Surely a reason to celebrate?

percy

29-12-2014, 12:28 PM

I'm surprised that FPH hasn't been target for acquisition by one of their competitors in the industry. Lots of juicy IP, well regarded by competitors in the industry (based on discussion's I've had with salespeople) and a proven track record.

Totally agree.
FPH is a company that's hitting it's straps right now.
All the ducks lined up.! Cheap manufacturing in Mexico which is right next door to its major US market.
Growing health sector worldwide led by the US..Growing product line.Growing market share.Growing profits with the strengthening US dollar.

BFG

29-12-2014, 01:32 PM

I'm surprised that FPH hasn't been target for acquisition by one of their competitors in the industry. Lots of juicy IP, well regarded by competitors in the industry (based on discussion's I've had with salespeople) and a proven track record.

Smart Directors and CEOs buy undervalued companies beaten down by the market but have mutual synergies and great potential. Dumb Directors and CEOs buy overvalued companies to create conglomerates and boost their egos without regard to purchase price.

if there is a takeover/merger in the near future it will be becauseof the latter, not the former. Unfirtunately for FPH holders, there are more smart ones than dumb ones out there. But you never know what some Americans wll do... ;)

Zaphod

29-12-2014, 03:16 PM

You are surprised nobody wants to make a take over offer for FPH - really?

The recent share price growth (60% last year) well exceeded the average revenue growth of roughly 8% pa (as well as any realistic expectations of future growth). In addition to that - the high NZD makes it a still more costly proposition for international suitors. NZ$3.5 billion are even for big international players no small change.

I guess this seems to be one of the examples where the NZ market values a domestic company higher than the Rest of the World would do. Surely a reason to celebrate?

Outside of the recent period of SP growth, yes I'm surprised. The SP went sideways for 1.5-2 years at a time when sales revenue and NPAT continued (on the whole) to improve, and key IP continued to be developed.

A major international competitor may view FPH's IP & product reputation as being worth paying a premium for even over and above the current SP, but I'm not holding my breath. In the mean time yes, it's time to celebrate the capital gain many investors have enjoyed over the last year!

Smart Directors and CEOs buy undervalued companies beaten down by the market but have mutual synergies and great potential. Dumb Directors and CEOs buy overvalued companies to create conglomerates and boost their egos without regard to purchase price.

if there is a takeover/merger in the near future it will be becauseof the latter, not the former. Unfirtunately for FPH holders, there are more smart ones than dumb ones out there. But you never know what some Americans wll do... ;)

You're right and unfortunately there are plenty of examples of purchasing overvalued companies and consequently destroying shareholder value. Hopefully any possible future acquisition will be synergetic for both entities.

Zaphod

29-12-2014, 03:19 PM

Totally agree.
FPH is a company that's hitting it's straps right now.
All the ducks lined up.! Cheap manufacturing in Mexico which is right next door to its major US market.
Growing health sector worldwide led by the US..Growing product line.Growing market share.Growing profits with the strengthening US dollar.

Yes, it sure is!

One thing I have always been slightly uncomfortable with was the expansion of the NZ manufacturing base. If the company can build high quality lower-cost manufacturing facilities in jurisdictions closer to major markets, then perhaps the NZ operation should focus purely on the design aspect?

percy

29-12-2014, 03:38 PM

From the interim report I received today;
"We now sell our products in 123 countries,with direct sales operations in 29 of those.While North America remains our largest market,providing 42% of operating revenue in the half,our international footprint continues to expand.We recently began direct sales in Finland and Russia and we now have our own highly trained people in 35 countries directly supporting clinicans and healthcare providers and promoting our products."
"In the hospital setting,the clinical applications of our products encompass intensive care,high dependency care,neonatel care,respiratory and surgery."
"In long term care and home settings,our devices assist in the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea,as well as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and other chronic respiratory conditions."
"Clinicians are becoming increasingly aware of the benefits our repiratory care systems can offer.
"We estimate that over 9 million people are treated using our medical devices every year."
"Eighty percent of our revenue is generated from recurring sales of consumables and accessories."
"Robust growth for both core product groups is expected to continue in the second half of FY15,driven by demand for the broad range of new products we have launched over the last 18 months as well as the expanding use of our products in new applications."

percy

29-12-2014, 03:40 PM

Yes, it sure is!

One thing I have always been slightly uncomfortable with was the expansion of the NZ manufacturing base. If the company can build high quality lower-cost manufacturing facilities in jurisdictions closer to major markets, then perhaps the NZ operation should focus purely on the design aspect?

Don't know the answer to that,sorry.

winner69

30-12-2014, 12:27 PM

Harvey Specter

30-12-2014, 12:46 PM

Sparks loved Ben Graham and his intrinsic value methodology

A 15% growth and 20 cents eps that gives $7.70

Sparks liked to apply a 20% discount as a safety net ...ie $6.16

So current price seems pretty fair .....20% discount tp intrinsic value

BUY it is
But is that Growth sustainable? Go back only 3 years and the growth does't look that flash. Plus EPS for 2014 was 17c (19c forecast FY15) which knocks a bit off?

percy

30-12-2014, 12:54 PM

[QUOTE=Harvey Specter;524140]But is that Growth sustainable?
The choice is yours to make.
If you think it is, then FPH are great value.
If you don't,you don't buy.

Beagle

30-12-2014, 01:25 PM

Sparks loved Ben Graham and his intrinsic value methodology

A 15% growth and 20 cents eps that gives $7.70

Sparks liked to apply a 20% discount as a safety net ...ie $6.16

So current price seems pretty fair .....20% discount tp intrinsic value

BUY it is

Just for the sake of a healthy debate, (humour me for a minute here), lets apply Ben Graham's formula to MFT.

Based on my research MFT has grown EPS consistently over the years and has averaged a 14% growth rate in EPS, (latest half year grew by 14%) so as they continue to roll out their global freight and logistical capabilities there doesn't seem to be any reason why they can't continue to grow at 14% per annum.

Using V = eps x (8.5 + 2g) where eps is 82 cps and g is 14 we get....wait for it
V = $29.93 !!
Bring up a 5 year chart of MFT and have a look at the consistent nature of the uptrend you'll see why various brokers have this puppy as a three times pick.
Even using Sparky's 20% discount to intrinsic value we get $23.94 a whopping 49% premium to their current SP of $16.10.
More consistent growth than FPH just not in a sexy sector. Interesting comparison wouldn't you say ?
Disc I own some MFT

winner69

30-12-2014, 01:37 PM

Ben had another version which took bond rates into account

Take original calculation and multiply by 4.4 and then divide by a really safe bond rate.

AIA bonds are about 4.4% so his other version gives same result as original version.

winner69

30-12-2014, 01:51 PM

The 8.5 + 2G in Bens formula is the PE ratio that will be applied to get the IV.

That's why Bens formula gives some outrageous valuations.

Ben lived in times when high growth was not that common.

I debated with Sparks that Ben's formula not really appropriate for high growth tech companies because of this but got told off in even doubting the genius of Ben. It is valid for high growth companies I got told.

I haven't changed my view but there are many disciples of this type of methodology out there. I say good luck to them

Beagle

30-12-2014, 01:55 PM

Personally mate I use the V = eps x (8.5 + 1g), then you know you're buying value !!!

winner69

30-12-2014, 01:59 PM

Maybe the discounted Ben Graham value of $6.20 is ok'ish

Put it that way if I had $3.6 billion spare I wouldn't be buying FPH (with debt) knowing this years free cash flow is not likely to be much more than $100m ....3% return

percy

30-12-2014, 02:01 PM

Just for the sake of a healthy debate, (humour me for a minute here), lets apply Ben Graham's formula to MFT.

Based on my research MFT has grown EPS consistently over the years and has averaged a 14% growth rate in EPS, (latest half year grew by 14%) so as they continue to roll out their global freight and logistical capabilities there doesn't seem to be any reason why they can't continue to grow at 14% per annum.

Using V = eps x (8.5 + 2g) where eps is 82 cps and g is 14 we get....wait for it
V = $29.93 !!
Bring up a 5 year chart of MFT and have a look at the consistent nature of the uptrend you'll see why various brokers have this puppy as a three times pick.
Even using Sparky's 20% discount to intrinsic value we get $23.94 a whopping 49% premium to their current SP of $16.10.
More consistent growth than FPH just not in a sexy sector. Interesting comparison wouldn't you say ?
Disc I own some MFT

MFT is a great company in the transport sector where there is no moat.
FPH is a great company in the health sector and has a deep moat.
Best to own both.!!!

Beagle

30-12-2014, 02:24 PM

macduffy

30-12-2014, 02:26 PM

percy

30-12-2014, 03:05 PM

I take your meaning mate but I would debate that acquiring the skills, capital, machinery, systems, infrastructure and personnel to set up a freight and logistics company with a global footprint is not exactly a "no moat" situation.

Google international freight companies and you will get 7,350,000 results,while googleing respiratory system manufactures you will only get 1,210,000 results,so my point is anyone can set themselves up as a freight company.!

Beagle

30-12-2014, 03:07 PM

I'll start mine right now then mate :D

percy

30-12-2014, 03:08 PM

I like FPH too, percy, but never owned any, other than via F&P in the old days.

Not so sure about the deep moat though. Musn't overlook the competition from Resmed, RMD, whose SP has also been going great guns lately.

Cheers
Have never overlooked RMD.A great company too.Both companies are enjoying a fast growing section of the health market.
Will be interesting to how they perform over the next year or two.
FPH sp $6.23 today,while RMD's is A$6.98.

percy

30-12-2014, 03:08 PM

I'll start mine right now then mate :D

It's that easy.!!
Told you so.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Beagle

30-12-2014, 03:10 PM

Please send $59.95 so I can cover the set-up costs of registering you as my first customer :D
Granted anyone can set one up but can they grow EPS at 14% over average over the last 5 years ?

percy

30-12-2014, 03:26 PM

Please send $59.95 so I can cover the set-up costs of registering you as my first customer :D
Granted anyone can set one up but can they grow EPS at 14% over average over the last 5 years ?

Cheque is in the post!!

Jim

25-02-2015, 05:53 PM

Have never overlooked RMD.A great company too.Both companies are enjoying a fast growing section of the health market.
Will be interesting to how they perform over the next year or two.
FPH sp $6.23 today,while RMD's is A$6.98.
This darling is unstoppable, it is setting record just about every week, I wonder when will it stop or maybe it is time to cash in some ??

samdaman

25-02-2015, 06:38 PM

This darling is unstoppable, it is setting record just about every week, I wonder when will it stop or maybe it is time to cash in some ??

Seems so right! Personally I like the phrase the trend is your friend, I do think fundamentally it's a wee bit overvalued. I posted my thoughts a bit back in post #171 but I would take my opinion with a grain of salt. If you feel it's overpriced sell, if you feel its going higher stick with it.

Joshuatree

25-02-2015, 07:55 PM

MFT is a great company in the transport sector where there is no moat.
FPH is a great company in the health sector and has a deep moat.
Best to own both.!!!

Apparently Deep Throats make the loudest noise.

percy

25-02-2015, 08:44 PM

Apparently Deep Throats make the loudest noise.

So true.!!!!! lol.

dagoldtoof

16-04-2015, 10:49 AM

Love these shares, bought at $2.00, sold half of them at $3.50....stupid, stupid, was furious ....If I sold now could buy a new good model car, but my old , really old bomb is fine,,,, looks a bomb, but costs zilch to run.... like to buy more Ebo , people in Australia will spend on their animals, bit of debt there but the Ebo board are smart... all this worry and thought on a Thursday morning...

Bjauck

16-04-2015, 05:04 PM

At about the $3.50 mark my broker was saying that the high NZ dollar would create head winds for FPH but they powered through that. I am glad I did not get around to reducing at that stage. So I guess a stronger USD should provide an easier ride for FPH. Almost- $6.99 close today.

emveha

30-04-2015, 01:20 PM

Full year results to be announced at 9am on the 29/05.

Harvey Specter

30-04-2015, 01:35 PM

Biscuit

09-05-2015, 12:20 PM

I was going to put a stop loss at $7 to lock in some profits but it never quite got there.

Sold a few of these last week but still one of my bigger holdings. Not sure I shouldn't have dropped more. Looks like the uptrend is running out of legs. The announcement to come will have to be pretty good to justify this price IMHO.

percy

09-05-2015, 12:29 PM

Sold a few of these last week but still one of my bigger holdings. Not sure I shouldn't have dropped more. Looks like the uptrend is running out of legs. The announcement to come will have to be pretty good to justify this price IMHO.

Just keep in mind the sector they supply is growing rapidly world wide.

Biscuit

09-05-2015, 01:48 PM

Just keep in mind the sector they supply is growing rapidly world wide.

Yes and I must say I really like FPH, so wouldn't sell out. But I like to hedge my bets especially when they have been heading up so much on no news, there is room for a little profit taking, and there is news on the way (hopefully good news - but who knows).

Bjauck

10-05-2015, 05:00 PM

e
Yes and I must say I really like FPH, so wouldn't sell out. But I like to hedge my bets especially when they have been heading up so much on no news, there is room for a little profit taking, and there is news on the way (hopefully good news - but who knows).
A man once told me not to be scared of leaving a little bit of profit on the table for the next owner. A lady once said that if you don't act because you are scared of "missing out" then you probably will. Whether they are wise or not, I will tell you later ;)

Over the years it has grown to be one of my larger shareholdings, so I sold a third of my holding last week, athough I am happy to hold the rest. It is a company in which I am pleased to be a long-term shareholder and, as said previously, it is in a growth sector.

Joshuatree

10-05-2015, 07:34 PM

Just keep in mind the sector they supply is growing rapidly world wide.

Sure is.As people get bigger the more sleep probs they have. Holding FPH and doubled my holdings in bigger brother RMD on recent weakness.

Nasi Goreng

10-05-2015, 09:56 PM

FPH is a great company who continues to deliver good growth each year and you would expect this year to be fantastic.

That being said, I think the share price is over baked. I like the look of IXJ ETF more and bought into that earlier in the year which gives exposure to whole sector.

I haven't been following RMD to closely but didn't the SP drop after quarterly earnings miss? That might be a cause for concern.

Joshuatree

10-05-2015, 10:35 PM

Int ETF Nasi, cheers. Less risk and in $US

Bloomberg .RMD Rev in Americas $250.9 million 16% increase yoy quarter
Combined europe and asia pacific 6% decrease yoy qtr
Gross margin 59.5% below management expectations of 61%.

Elsewhere .Flow generator growth 26%
Mask growth numbers -1%
Quarterly reporting usually lumpy
Longterm earnings growth consistently excellent.

Joshuatree

14-05-2015, 11:12 AM

FPH may be being affected by the RMD trial termination.

Biscuit

14-05-2015, 04:13 PM

FPH may be being affected by the RMD trial termination.

Trial terminated because the treatment - Adaptive Servo-Ventilation (ASV) therapy - was apparently contributing to the death of some of the patients! Not a great result.

Cricketfan

27-05-2015, 08:35 AM

Hopefully a good result on Friday: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11455106&ref=rss

percy

27-05-2015, 08:52 AM

Harvey Specter

27-05-2015, 09:27 AM

Well that article has just made my day.Not for the projected profit, but for the fact FPH is now a "Medical Technology Company."
I did tell a friend of mine I was adding manufacturing to retail sector, as sectors I was no longer prepared to invest in.My friend caught me out by saying "what about FPH."So I can now comfortably say no,FPH health is not a manufacturer,but a Medical Technology Company.Thank you NZ Herald.Its definitely not 'retail' as it doesn't sell to the end user. Techncially it is a manufacturer but it owns the whole value change from R&D through to wholesale (to hospitals etc) but the value in the company is in the R&D/IP, not the manufacture side (if it was in the manufacture side, you wouldn't do it via toll manufacturing in Mexico).

Its down about 10% since it failed (just) to rise over $7 so any good news would be welcome.

Biscuit

27-05-2015, 02:10 PM

percy

27-05-2015, 02:24 PM

Market is not sharing your enthusiasm apparently Percy, down another percentage point so far today. No exactly a buying opportunity though, I don't think.

What we are seeing at the present time is the uninformed market selling down a manufacturer,while we[ the informed], continue to hold a Medical Technology Company.lol.

Biscuit

27-05-2015, 02:46 PM

What we are seeing at the present time is the uninformed market selling down a manufacturer,while we[ the informed], continue to hold a Medical Technology Company.lol.

lol, I am in both camps having sold down a couple of weeks ago and continuing to hold today. I'm a bit surprised Craigs have it as a buy according to NZHerald. Still seems pricey, don't you think? If it is a "buy" now it must have been a screamingly obvious "BUY" six months ago when I first started taking profits.

percy

27-05-2015, 03:01 PM

lol, I am in both camps having sold down a couple of weeks ago and continuing to hold today. I'm a bit surprised Craigs have it as a buy according to NZHerald. Still seems pricey, don't you think? If it is a "buy" now it must have been a screamingly obvious "BUY" six months ago when I first started taking profits.

On 8th April Craig's had a buy at $6.60 with a target price of $6.90.
FPH,POT,RYM and SUM, I am prepared to let my profits run ,as I have sold down,so I am either having a free ride,or my average cost price is very low.Unless any of them do something I totally disagree with,I will sit back and enjoy the ride.
FPH.I have never known them not to be pricey.
My mistake on all of them has been taking profit,selling down,far to early.

Biscuit

27-05-2015, 03:29 PM

On 8th April Craig's had a buy at $6.60 with a target price of $6.90.
FPH,POT,RYM and SUM, I am prepared to let my profits run ,as I have sold down,so I am either having a free ride,or my average cost price is very low.Unless any of them do something I totally disagree with,I will sit back and enjoy the ride.
FPH.I have never known them not to be pricey.
My mistake on all of them has been taking profit,selling down,far to early.

Got rid of half my RYM last year and not regretting it, am too exposed to property anyway. Sold some FPH last year too early and wish I hadn't now. Still one of my bigger holdings, and is all "free" now after selling down. I would rather not get as much profit than give up the profit already made.

percy

27-05-2015, 03:34 PM

Got rid of half my RYM last year and not regretting it, am too exposed to property anyway. Sold some FPH last year too early and wish I hadn't now. Still one of my bigger holdings, and is all "free" now after selling down. I would rather not get as much profit than give up the profit already made.

I too just love "free" rides.!!! lol.

axe

27-05-2015, 06:27 PM

I too just love "free" rides.!!! lol.

Not exactly "free" - you earned them :)

dagoldtoof

28-05-2015, 01:58 PM

Sold some of mine, got a bit scared and guess happy when they hit $6.99 , looks sweet in bank account....Now take a deep breath and don't buy something stupid...

Cricketfan

29-05-2015, 09:12 AM

https://nzx.com/companies/FPH/announcements/264996

Biscuit

29-05-2015, 09:21 AM

https://nzx.com/companies/FPH/announcements/264996

Nice result. Looking cheap at 6.30 eh?

BlackPeter

29-05-2015, 10:24 AM

Nice result. Looking cheap at 6.30 eh?

Yes, respectable result ... but not sure, whether I would call them cheap. Forward PE of 28.5 (at 6.52) is even for a 8% CAGR on the high side - but I guess quality has its price - and yes, it is a good company in a growth industry.

Nasi Goreng

29-05-2015, 10:45 AM

and we have lift off. A very good looking fish in a small pond.

Makes you wonder what level of growth would have forced a sell off. This came right in around my expectation and I expected SP to remain in the low 600s.

Not holding.

Beagle

29-05-2015, 10:50 AM

Yes, respectable result ... but not sure, whether I would call them cheap. Forward PE of 28.5 (at 6.52) is even for a 8% CAGR on the high side - but I guess quality has its price - and yes, it is a good company in a growth industry.

High quality company, superbly managed with potential strong currency tailwinds. Not cheap but real quality never is. Not holding but wish I had been :(

Bjauck

29-05-2015, 11:04 AM

High quality company, superbly managed with potential strong currency tailwinds. Not cheap but real quality never is. Not holding but wish I had been :(
I second that. Relatively free of over-hype, it is great that this company is still based in NZ with a NZ listing.
Let's hope that sufficient NZ money keeps out of real estate to continue to keep it in NZ!

dagoldtoof

29-05-2015, 11:14 AM

Factories are based in Mexico and NZ....Ninety nine percent of sales are from outside NZ...

Zaphod

29-05-2015, 11:33 AM

As long as the quality of the manufactured product can be maintained, then it would make sense to have all FPH manufacturing in lower cost centres, with NZ remaining the centre for design and the company HQ.

Joshuatree

29-05-2015, 11:50 AM

Yes FAB result;almost predictable consistency; S/P up re 6% .My other in this pair RMD rerating back up too.Awesome sector to be in.

Bjauck

29-05-2015, 11:52 AM

Factories are based in Mexico and NZ....Ninety nine percent of sales are from outside NZ... Exactly - A NZ company which has an international reach. It has not been taken over by an overseas company. Long may it continue. Unlike its former stable-mate, FPA, which became Chinese owned.

Jim

29-05-2015, 08:03 PM

Exactly - A NZ company which has an international reach. It has not been taken over by an overseas company. Long may it continue. Unlike its former stable-mate, FPA, which became Chinese owned.

Lucky for the Chinese or else I'll loose my skin. If not for the Chinese FPA could have gone by lunchtime

percy

29-05-2015, 09:44 PM

The result proves the company's commitment to research has been worth while.
With more new products, and expanding markets the future looks very bright.
I am proud to have shares in a company whose product improves,and often saves peoples' lives.

Cricketfan

08-06-2015, 01:33 PM

Nice to see $7

Biscuit

08-06-2015, 01:48 PM

Nice to see $7

Yeah, well now it's 710

Nasi Goreng

08-06-2015, 03:22 PM

Crazy stuff. If everything goes well and they stay on this trajectory, they will double their business in the next 5 years. If this is achieved, their earnings in 5 years time will be 41c and that will be a PE of 17.3.

I think this is a sign of the times in trying to find quality businesses on the NZX - FPH does offer a natural currency hedge so maybe thats what is driving this. If you look beyond NZX, there are plenty of better options which also offer currency protection.

Joshuatree

08-06-2015, 04:00 PM

Hi Nasi Goreng; If youre willing ; could you please list a few of these better options which also offer currency protection; for us to have a look at/research; Id/we'd be most int. No prob if not. Cheers JT

Nasi Goreng

08-06-2015, 09:44 PM

Hi JT, I do like the healthcare sector and hold IXJ global healthcare ETF which is traded on ASX. I personally think there are a few advantages to this vs a single share option like FPH which is priced where its at. IXJ is no longer "cheap" but it does diversify and gives exposure to top healthcare stocks in Europe and US. While there are 100s of shares in the ETF (no RMD or FPH), the top 10 represent 41% of the funds value. I think the industry will continue to grow, the top players like Johnson and Johnson, Pfizer, Roche will continue to do well and I'm happy to ride the train with exposure to a whole sector.

I'm keen to hold more US equities also, I'm hoping for a pullback to get into more stocks (I'm holding some USD through ANZ). I like some of the big names, Apple, Microsoft, FB, Disney, and some of the big banks. I think the kiwi dollar will be under pressure over the next 2 years so I think it will make sense to buy overseas stocks. If the kiwi holds, then I'm ok with that also.

I really like FPH and if you own it, great. I just can't bring myself to buy in at $7... It could be $8 in a few months and then it will be even more out of my range.

Joshuatree

08-06-2015, 10:45 PM

Thanks NasiG, I hold FPH (from $3.02) and RMD (doubled up plus on recent dip) but can see the attraction of IXJ.Just off an all time high; re 133% gain in re 6 years but at a much lower risk. Great place to park some Kiwi and $US. Will keep my eye on it . I used to have some investment trusts for diversity but didn't do well with them. Your post has me reconsidering the idea of diversifying and yes the big Pharmas do have a great record and GE , P&G,Visa,Wells fargo,Apple etc too all bluechips in their fields.

I see there are 12 Ishares ETF'S covering all the sectors.

Harvey Specter

02-07-2015, 03:05 PM

Big jump on the price - I assume due to drop in NZ$.

percy

21-07-2015, 05:22 PM

Saint

21-07-2015, 05:31 PM

$0.57 increase since June 30 2015. Happy i got mine at $2 all those years ago!

clips

21-07-2015, 05:45 PM

oohhh, maybe getting a bit toppy ??

Cricketfan

21-07-2015, 05:48 PM

Today FPH sp was $7.42.
I note this is up 110.37% in the past two years [plus divies].
The past year the increase has been 56.65%.
We have done well,with more to come.
Goes to show great companies just keep on performing.

Not that I'm complaining (I bought some two years ago), but why has it been constantly creeping up with seemingly no news?

percy

21-07-2015, 05:58 PM

Not that I'm complaining (I bought some two years ago), but why has it been constantly creeping up with seemingly no news?

Being in the right sector [health] helps, as does great products,excellent future prospects,growing eps and weakening NZ $ .
The huge R&D spend means more and improved models and products are finding market acceptance.
The company has also been opening up new markets.

nzspeak

06-08-2015, 09:13 PM

In the last 2 1/2 years one of these companies has more than tripled their share price the other has 'only' doubled.

XRO
FPH

Will FPH overtake XRO in price per share?? gap closes every day

gv1

29-10-2015, 01:42 PM

Probably only share that might come close to Blackmores in Aussie.... IMO undervalued.

Made the mistake of selling when I bought this initially at $2.20 then at $6.20.

Joshuatree

02-11-2015, 09:32 PM

A new high $7.95 on biggest vol in two years plus a lovely chart march up. Ver similar 10 year performance to RMD re $2 to $8 isn. RMD did get close to $10 at once stage but very close to FPH atm.

gv1

06-11-2015, 10:05 PM

Everyone is quick to argue about other stocks, why no one is saying anything about next apple, blackmores of New Zealand. Or is it the smart ones are quietly acquiring them!!

kiora

07-11-2015, 02:26 AM

Just holding firmly :)

gv1

07-11-2015, 10:46 AM

Just holding firmly :)
Thanks mate...do u think next announcement might take it to $15 & over.

kiora

07-11-2015, 12:41 PM

Thanks mate...do u think next announcement might take it to $15 & over.

Sooner or latter they will.Does it matter when?
With GP% 75% from memory due to low labor costs and 10% TO going back in Research & Development it is a long term winner.

winner69

07-11-2015, 12:55 PM

Everyone is quick to argue about other stocks, why no one is saying anything about next apple, blackmores of New Zealand. Or is it the smart ones are quietly acquiring them!!

Not discussed because FPH has always been 'overvalued' - almost as 'overvalued' as AIR is 'undervalued'

Silence on this thread - probably nothing to argue about and nobody seems keen to generate any quality discussion on FPH

gv1

07-11-2015, 01:02 PM

Sooner or latter they will.Does it matter when?
With GP% 75% from memory due to low labor costs and 10% TO going back in Research & Development it is a long term winner.
Thanks mate

gv1

07-11-2015, 01:05 PM

Not discussed because FPH has always been 'overvalued' - almost as 'overvalued' as AIR is 'undervalued'

Silence on this thread - probably nothing to argue about and nobody seems keen to generate any quality discussion on FPH
Air will never became next apple of NZ, can't compare an apple with an orange.
It will be nice for investors to see the future potential of this company and reap the rewards rather than investing in ramped up stock!

winner69

07-11-2015, 01:13 PM

Thanks mate...do u think next announcement might take it to $15 & over.

I recall selling a bundle of FPH at about $18 once - had almost doubled in price over 6 months. A great trade that was

Shortly after Fisher & Paykel split into Appliances and Healthcare. Even back then punters didn't really understand the healthcare business and at the time marked FPH down as unglamorous and the poor brother compared to Appliances

winner69

07-11-2015, 01:22 PM

Air will never became next apple of NZ, can't compare an apple with an orange.
It will be nice for investors to see the future potential of this company and reap the rewards rather than investing in ramped up stock!

Keep at gv1 ......like this talk of FPH being the Apple of NZ (less restrained then saying the next Apple) and suggestion of a share price of $15 at next announcement

No doubt that FPH is a brilliant and much admired company (my view)

gv1

07-11-2015, 01:39 PM

Keep at gv1 ......like this talk of FPH being the Apple of NZ (less restrained then saying the next Apple) and suggestion of a share price of $15 at next announcement

No doubt that FPH is a brilliant and much admired company (my view)
Cheers mate...no hard feelings!!

:t_up::D

Joshuatree

09-11-2015, 11:30 AM

Craigs (T/P$8.64) note out re Resmed and CareFusion form alliance to compete with FPH in the high flow oxygen mkt which FPH dominates (in USA).

Little immediate risk due to superior patented backed devices; seems FPH have the Gold Standard practically in this area.
I hold FPH and RMD

percy

27-11-2015, 08:48 AM

Yet again another cracker result.

Balance

27-11-2015, 08:51 AM

The good gets better and the bad gets worse.

percy

27-11-2015, 09:05 AM

The good gets better and the bad gets worse.

Yet a lot of people don't understand that.!!! lol.

trader_jackson

27-11-2015, 09:09 AM

Just as well they reported such a great result, F&P is now only overvalued, instead of extremely overvalued.

Having said this, I do like a good kiwi tech company ;)

gv1

27-11-2015, 09:25 AM

Heyye. People can't complain, they were not told.:t_up::t_up:

kiora

27-11-2015, 09:49 AM

Well done FPH
$62 m profit H1
$140 m predicted full year
63%GP
9.4% R & D operating revenue

Joshuatree

27-11-2015, 07:48 PM

Result highlights for the first half

27% growth in net profit after tax to a record NZ$62.0 million.
16% increase in interim dividend to 6.7 cps (2015: 5.8 cps).
20% growth in operating revenue to a record NZ$381.0 million, 12% growth in constant currency.
31% increase in operating profit to NZ$95.2 million, 25% growth in constant currency.
18% growth in RAC operating revenue, 11% growth in constant currency.
Revenue growth for RAC consumables used in NIV, Optiflow and surgical applications of 22% in constant currency, accounting for almost half of RAC consumables revenue.
23% growth in OSA operating revenue, 14% growth in constant currency.
Continued strong performance from OSA masks, 25% revenue growth in constant currency.
Investment in R&D increased by 14% to NZ$35.8 million, representing 9.4% of operating revenue.
To have and to hold
in fitness and bed
for better for snore
for ever and bagger:)