FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[Beagle]

Mid point of upgraded forecast is $265m after tax = 46.1 cps and at today's closing price this puts FPH on a PE for the year ended 31/3/2020 of 61.5
eps last year was 40.62 cps so growth rate for 2020 = 46.1 / 40.62 = 13.5%

If we zoom out and use the ol Ben Graham model of a zero growth PE of 8.5 (call that 11.5 because risk free rate is 1%, was 4% in his day) = 2g I see a fair PE of 11.5 + (2 x 13.5) = 38.5.

Looks expensive but then again it always has and probably always will be. Nice uptrend on the chart...a rare thing on the NZX at present. Existing holders should probably ignore the expensive FA and ride the TA uptrend until the bend in the end. GLTH.

[iceman]

Mid point of upgraded forecast is $265m after tax = 46.1 cps and at today's closing price this puts FPH on a PE for the year ended 31/3/2020 of 61.5.

Yep. Unreal. I bought my first lot at $4.25 a few years ago (can´t remember exactly when) and we´ve had constant comments on here saying ever since then that they´re overvalued. Don´t take me wrong, I´ve thought so myself on many (most) occassions but Mr Market never seems to agree. My biggest mistake with these was to ever sell any !

[Biscuit]

Looks expensive but then again it always has and probably always will be.

Not true, FPH has not always been "expensive". The current astronomical PE is no guarantee that it will always be so highly priced - which I would think is highly doubtful.

[Beagle]

Yep. Unreal. I bought my first lot at $4.25 a few years ago (can´t remember exactly when) and we´ve had constant comments on here saying ever since then that they´re overvalued. Don´t take me wrong, I´ve thought so myself on many (most) occassions but Mr Market never seems to agree. My biggest mistake with these was to ever sell any !

Well done mate.


Not true, FPH has not always been "expensive". The current astronomical PE is no guarantee that it will always be so highly priced - which I would think is highly doubtful.

FWIW I look for stocks trading on a multiple of 1 times the growth rate + a no growth PE of 11.5. Obviously this fails my screening test by a very wide margin lol

[Biscuit]

FWIW I look for stocks trading on a multiple of 1 times the growth rate + a no growth PE of 11.5. Obviously this fails my screening test by a very wide margin lol

I've held FPH for over 10 years and regularly sell some when I review my stocks. Those sold shares have cost me more money than any other investment decision I have ever made. But there is no way I could justify buying them back at that PE.

[kiora]

I see AIA could be a good buy on PE of 41,2021 PE 199,2022 PE 50 but somehow I'd rather have FPH
Price is what you pay,value is what you get, someone knowledgeable once said

[Beagle]

I've held FPH for over 10 years and regularly sell some when I review my stocks. Those sold shares have cost me more money than any other investment decision I have ever made. But there is no way I could justify buying them back at that PE.

Well done to you for holding for so long and regularly reviewing your portfolio.
It'll be interesting to see how it plays out over the next year what with obvious substantial extra demand with Covid 19, (only a very small amount of which would have fallen into the FY20 year) so should give a huge boost to FY21 as will the lower currency. I bought a bunch of Kingfish warrants the other day for a few cents, not exercisable til March 2021 and FPH is their equal largest holding at 16% of their portfolio, also ATM. I guess I potentially have a piece of the pie for a very low cost outlay but to be honest I think there's at least a 50% chance the warrants will be worthless at exercise time so who knows, I might have jack, time will tell.

For what its worth I think there's at least a 50% chance the whole market could fall 30-40% in the next year. Whether this could stay immune from that sort of a serious second leg to a bear market is anyone's guess.

[Jonboyz]

I see AIA could be a good buy on PE of 41,2021 PE 199,2022 PE 50 but somehow I'd rather have FPH
Price is what you pay,value is what you get, someone knowledgeable once said

Haha, that question was on Who wants to be a millionaire yesterday.

[Lewylewylewy]

I wonder how FPHs factories are faring:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/lowly-water-heaters-get-ensnarled-in-cross-border-covid-19-fight

[kiora]

I wonder how FPHs factories are faring:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/lowly-water-heaters-get-ensnarled-in-cross-border-covid-19-fight

Not that FPH make ventilators
" Demand for ventilators has also boosted U.S. imports from Mexico, with a 36.2% year-over-year rise in February. Respiratory care equipment maker Fisher & Paykel FPH.NZ accounted for much of the increase. Panjiva also linked some shipments to electronic components maker Flex FLEX.O , which reportedly has committed to producing ventilator parts in response to high demand"
https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/fisher-paykel-healthcare-NZE:FPH/news/live-markets-us-coronavirus-infects-global-trade-urn:newsml:reuters.com:20200407:nL1N2BV18C/
"Fisher & Paykel has put on extra shifts and hired more workers at its factories in both Auckland and Tijuana in Mexico as demand from hospitals and government agencies jumps as the number of coronavirus cases around the world escalates."
"Factories were not yet running at full capacity, and could ramp up further.

Along with respiratory humidifiers, the company also makes medical consumables such as the nasal cannulas and mask interfaces used in invasive and non-invasive ventilation treatment of hospital patients.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is preparing to open a new building at its Auckland operations, and has two buildings across a 41,000 square metre footprint in Tijuana."
https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/fisher-and-paykel-healthcare-respiratory-devices-demand-surge-20200317-p54as9
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/fisher-paykel-leads-surge-in-mexican-ventilator-exports-to-us-57935919

[Jim]

With the recent high volume of shares traded average $25m to 30m a day, FPH is a good trading share which is quite volatile. One can make a tidy profit any day by buying low and sell high

[Lewylewylewy]

Do you think that Mexico's lockdown is not stopping production for FPH? I wonder if the Auckland factory opening is a sign that they are reducing risk?

[kiora]

Do you think that Mexico's lockdown is not stopping production for FPH? I wonder if the Auckland factory opening is a sign that they are reducing risk?

Re Mexico who knows but no word of it stopping production.
Auckland factory has been on the plan pre Covid so not around the risk of Covid
More likely around spreading risk of trade disruptions Mexico/USA ?
So Mexico production goes elsewhere ,NZ goes to USA if I remember rightly. Ridiculous hugh

[Blue Skies]

Deleted due to duplication

[Blue Skies]

Wow, story going around the World at moment CNN, Daily Mail etc, about how a man saved his Covad stricken father's life (after he had been given up on & sent home from hospital with doctors saying his lungs would collapse if put on a Ventilator due to the poor condition of his lungs & the pressure from the Ventilator ) by using the gentle oxygen flow of a CPAP Sleep Apnea machine to ease his breathing.
Not sure if it was one of FPH's but they make the gold standard in these.
It quotes Warrington Hospital & a few others as achieving amazing results using these specifically for this purpose. But theres still only a few hospitals in the NHS with them.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8280913/Son-55-nurses-Covid-stricken-father-81-health-released-hospital-die.html

[iceman]

Sure is very interesting reading Blue Skies. Could be a boost for FPH :-)

[kiora]

Wow, story going around the World at moment CNN, Daily Mail etc, about how a man saved his Covad stricken father's life (after he had been given up on & sent home from hospital with doctors saying his lungs would collapse if put on a Ventilator due to the poor condition of his lungs & the pressure from the Ventilator ) by using the gentle oxygen flow of a CPAP Sleep Apnea machine to ease his breathing.
Not sure if it was one of FPH's but they make the gold standard in these.
It quotes Warrington Hospital & a few others as achieving amazing results using these specifically for this purpose. But theres still only a few hospitals in the NHS with them.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8280913/Son-55-nurses-Covid-stricken-father-81-health-released-hospital-die.html

Old news but
From what I read better than ventilators that damage fragile lungs infected with Coronavirus
"https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12324425

"Generally speaking, 40 per cent to 50 per cent of patients with severe respiratory distress die while on ventilators, experts say. But 80 per cent or more of coronavirus patients placed on the machines in New York City have died, state and city officials say.

Higher-than-normal death rates also have been reported elsewhere in the United States, said Dr. Albert Rizzo, the American Lung Association's chief medical officer.

Similar reports have emerged from China and the United Kingdom. One UK report put the figure at 66 per cent. A very small study in Wuhan, the Chinese city where the disease first emerged, said 86 per cent died."
"But increasingly, physicians are trying other measures first. One is having patients lie in different positions — including on their stomachs — to allow different parts of the lung to aerate better. Another is giving patients more oxygen through nose tubes or other devices. Some doctors are experimenting with adding nitric oxide to the mix, to help improve blood flow and oxygen to the least damaged parts of the lungs."

[Beagle]

Mid point of upgraded forecast is $265m after tax = 46.1 cps and at today's closing price this puts FPH on a PE for the year ended 31/3/2020 of 61.5
eps last year was 40.62 cps so growth rate for 2020 = 46.1 / 40.62 = 13.5%

If we zoom out and use the ol Ben Graham model of a zero growth PE of 8.5 (call that 11.5 because risk free rate is 1%, was 4% in his day) = 2g I see a fair PE of 11.5 + (2 x 13.5) = 38.5.

Looks expensive but then again it always has and probably always will be. Nice uptrend on the chart...a rare thing on the NZX at present. Existing holders should probably ignore the expensive FA and ride the TA uptrend until the bend in the end. GLTH.

Recently I suggested a fair forward PE for FPH was about 2/3 rd's of what the market is according it, suggesting the shares are about 50% higher than they should be.
It seems Forsyth Barr agree and have a target price 12 months hence of $18.50. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12331228
I don't follow closely but I have never understood why the market accords FPH a PE so far in advance of what would appear to be warranted by their moderate growth rate.
I don't invest where value is vastly removed from where I see it so will stay out.

[winner69]

Recently I suggested a fair forward PE for FPH was about 2/3 rd's of what the market is according it, suggesting the shares are about 50% higher than they should be.
It seems Forsyth Barr agree and have a target price 12 months hence of $18.50. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12331228
I don't follow closely but I have never understood why the market accords FPH a PE so far in advance of what would appear to be warranted by their moderate growth rate.
I don't invest where value is vastly removed from where I see it so will stay out.

I don’t rate Forsythe Barr at all.








sorry ..couldn’t resist saying that

[Beagle]

I don’t rate Forsythe Barr at all.








sorry ..couldn’t resist saying that

LOL You know I don't either. They always seem to be followers rather than leaders. Always following someone, this time possibly me lol

[macduffy]

Recently I suggested a fair forward PE for FPH was about 2/3 rd's of what the market is according it, suggesting the shares are about 50% higher than they should be.
It seems Forsyth Barr agree and have a target price 12 months hence of $18.50. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12331228
I don't follow closely but I have never understood why the market accords FPH a PE so far in advance of what would appear to be warranted by their moderate growth rate.
I don't invest where value is vastly removed from where I see it so will stay out.

Might it be a case of FPH being one of our very few successful, innovative, listed companies? And feted accordingly.

[Beagle]

Might it be a case of FPH being one of our very few successful, innovative, listed companies? And feted accordingly.

Yes it has an admirable track record as does Ryman. Does that make them a good investment at today's prices though ? That's the $64,000 question.

[winner69]

Guru wealth advisor Mark mentioned RYM would be over $60 if they hadn’t done a share split.

And mentioned there’s a few managers who only buy shares over 10 bucks because they’ve must have done well to get there

https://craigsip.com/insights/overview/2020/05/why%20you%20shouldnt%20let%20high%20share%20prices %20put%20you%20off

[winner69]

Talking if RYM being $60 ...oops only $12 odd these days I see the RYM:SUM relativity still true.

Some things never change - FPH and RYM always perceived to be over priced and MET always seen as so so cheap

[HKG2301]

Recently I suggested a fair forward PE for FPH was about 2/3 rd's of what the market is according it, suggesting the shares are about 50% higher than they should be.
It seems Forsyth Barr agree and have a target price 12 months hence of $18.50. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12331228
I don't follow closely but I have never understood why the market accords FPH a PE so far in advance of what would appear to be warranted by their moderate growth rate.
I don't invest where value is vastly removed from where I see it so will stay out.

I'm scratching my head too. Kinda glad to hear others similarly bewildered. I thought it was just me! :confused:

[winner69]

FPH share price reflects (and rewarded for) it’s high ROIC of over 20%

Huge amount of excess returns over its cost of capital Is good ...and results in it trading at high P/B valuations (conversely economic value destroying companies generally tend to trade below NTA)

Mind you I think that FPH price is stretched to the point where the market is still expected even greater improvement than they have achieved in the past.

[limmy]

I've been a shareholder of FPH from day 1 and as far as I can remember the PE ratio has always been high. Analysts had often recommended "reduce" or "sell" and I was foolish enough to have followed their lead. I eventually realised that each time I sold, the share price kept on climbing to new highs. Hence, each time I'd sold in the past I'd regretted those decisions. I think there are quite a few people who share my experiences here.

[winner69]

I'm scratching my head too. Kinda glad to hear others similarly bewildered. I thought it was just me! :confused:

Hkg - you obviously a PE orientated guy

Have a look at this chart ..related to S&P500 but probably applies to most markets

Think about ...and then look at next post to see why FPH is priced so generously

[winner69]

Hkg — see returns on invested capital ...like making heaps out what capital is invested in the business is key

Higher excess returns over cost of capital higher market value

FPH ROIC greater then 20%

Cool eh

[HKG2301]

Hkg — see returns on invested capital ...like making heaps out what capital is invested in the business is key

Higher excess returns over cost of capital higher market value

FPH ROIC greater then 20%

Cool eh

Thanks, I'll bear that in mind. Still a tad over-valued though...? :confused:

[Panda-NZ-]

Nothing is known about the status of recovered cases (it has taken a back seat to other efforts). importantly the US military has banned recovered coronavirus patients as recruits until more is known about lung function and other health issues.

There's a possibility there will be long term demand for these products even through 2030. :)

[Blue Skies]

Nothing is known about the status of recovered cases (it has taken a back seat to other efforts). importantly the US military has banned recovered coronavirus patients as recruits until more is known about lung function and other health issues.

There's a possibility there will be long term demand for these products even through 2030. :)


Furthermore, there have been over 4 million cases worldwide so far & for those who have recovered, unfortunately in many cases there has been evidence of permanent lung damage to some degree.
That suggests a potentially massive increase in future demand for the sorts of products FPH make.

Covid19 is just a new & even more deadly one of a number of respiratory Coronaviruses to come along like SAARS & MERS. Governments will have to take the risk of new respiratory virus epidemics appearing in future much more seriously & ensure their hospitals are much better equipped to deal with future outbreaks. The low pressure oxygen delivery sleep apnea devices FPH make seem to be better for ventilating acute Covid patients than the standard hospital ventilators.

So I think demand will only increase & can't see it easing off in the slightest. Only question is the valuation but as a long term holder I'm happy with it. :)

[macduffy]

According to The Herald, AIA reports that air-freighted exports of NZ respiratory products increased nearly 400% in March. Now who makes them, I wonder?

;)

[kiora]

According to The Herald, AIA reports that air-freighted exports of NZ respiratory products increased nearly 400% in March. Now who makes them, I wonder?

;)

Did everyone else miss it?
Eagle Beagle must have by the sounds of it
It doesn't say whos.
No guesses?
$1,000,000 for the flight?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12320809

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Dollar took a hit (-1.1%) on Friday so expect FPH to be a strong performer today (and wow what a run it has had). Will we see a new all time high closing price?

[Panda-NZ-]

Interesting to see what FPH have been up to in a few days. SP increasing a bit in anticipation.

[share4eva]

Just a lazy $32.00 close.

[Joshuatree]

All time high on my chart , bang on $32.00. Results Monday.

[limmy]

All time high on my chart , bang on $32.00. Results Monday.
Will they beat their forecast, with all the increased demand brought about by Covid-19 virus ?
I guess all the hospitals around the world will want to stock up on respirators as well as ventilators.

[share4eva]

Will they beat their forecast, with all the increased demand brought about by Covid-19 virus ?
I guess all the hospitals around the world will want to stock up on respirators as well as ventilators.

Will they beat forecast??!! Is that serious question??!!!

[Lewylewylewy]

Im curious about next years results. Theyve got all these machines out there, but if they're not going to use them after covid, they wont be buying the consumables.

[macduffy]

Im curious about next years results. Theyve got all these machines out there, but if they're not going to use them after covid, they wont be buying the consumables.

Aren't we all? "After covid" can't be determined at this time.

[kiora]

Potential patient numbers keep increasing
"Such is the scale of the pandemic that the WHO is warning of a worldwide shortage of oxygen concentrators needed to keep severe sufferers breathing."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12343595

[BlackPeter]

Potential patient numbers keep increasing
"Such is the scale of the pandemic that the WHO is warning of a worldwide shortage of oxygen concentrators needed to keep severe sufferers breathing."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12343595

FPH might be a great company, but I am not aware they are producing oxygen concentrators? Are they?

[Blue Skies]

FPH might be a great company, but I am not aware they are producing oxygen concentrators? Are they?


CPAP machines such as the FPH one are already being used to treat Covid patients, & the gentle air pressure & oxygen delivery has been found in some cases to be better for lungs damaged by Covid than the higher pressure respirators.
There was also a story about a group of doctors & engineers in the US who found it straightforward to modify a CPAP machine for Covid patients, working to get FDA approval, as there is now such a massive need & shortage of respiratory medical devices.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8280913/Son-55-nurses-Covid-stricken-father-81-health-released-hospital-die.html

[BlackPeter]

CPAP machines such as the FPH one are already being used to treat Covid patients, & the gentle air pressure & oxygen delivery has been found in some cases to be better for lungs damaged by Covid than the higher pressure respirators.
There was also a story about a group of doctors & engineers in the US who found it straightforward to modify a CPAP machine for Covid patients, working to get FDA approval, as there is now such a massive need & shortage of respiratory medical devices.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8280913/Son-55-nurses-Covid-stricken-father-81-health-released-hospital-die.html

Interesting - I didn't realize that these machines are as well concentrating the oxygen in the air (vs. taking it from a separate oxygen supply or concentrator). Always new things to learn :): cheers.

[kiora]

"Controlled oxygen delivery (when required)
Oxygen from a concentrator or cylinder can be added. An in-built ultrasonic analyzer requires no calibration, service, or replacement."
https://www.fphcare.com/nz/hospital/adult-respiratory/optiflow/airvo-2-system/

[Sideshow Bob]

$287m - not bad....! But still a PE of circa 65 and dividend yield of 0.85%.....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355359

Record Result for FPH; Net Profit up 37%


29/6/2020, 8:37 amFLLYR
Record Result for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare; Net Profit up 37%

Auckland, New Zealand, 29 June 2020 - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited announced today its results for the full year ended 31 March 2020. Operating revenue was $1.26 billion, up 18% over last year, or 14% in constant currency.

Net profit after tax was $287.3 million, up 37% over the previous year, or 30% in constant currency. Excluding the impact from tax changes, being the R&D tax credit and building tax depreciation, net profit after tax grew 23% in constant currency.
The increase in revenue was largely driven by growth in the use of the company’s OptiflowTM nasal high flow therapy, demand for products to treat COVID-19 patients, and strong hospital hardware sales throughout the course of the year.
“The 2020 financial year was already on track to deliver strong growth before the coronavirus impacted sales,” said Managing Director and CEO Lewis Gradon. “Beginning in January, the demand for our respiratory humidifiers accelerated in a way that has been unprecedented.”
“With new processes, new procedures and new ways of working safely, we managed to double and in some instances triple, output for some of our hospital hardware products over just a few months at the end of the year. I’m incredibly proud of our people and their unyielding commitment to doing the right thing for patients,” said Mr Gradon.

For the Hospital product group, which includes products used in respiratory, acute and surgical care, operating revenue increased 25%, or 21% in constant currency, to $801.3 million for the year. Sales from new applications consumables, which includes products used for nasal high flow therapy, increased by 23% in constant currency over the previous financial year.

For the Homecare product group, which includes products used in the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and respiratory support in the home, revenue rose 9%, or 4% in constant currency, to finish at $457 million for the year. During the year, the company introduced its F&P ViteraTM OSA full face mask into the US market and launched the new F&P EvoraTM compact nasal mask in Australasia, Europe and Canada. Both of these new masks have been well received.

Gross margin decreased by 73 basis points to 66.1%, primarily driven by additional air freight costs required to acquire increased supply of raw materials and expedite finished goods to customers for patient use towards the end of the financial year, as well as the additional start-up costs of the company’s second Mexico manufacturing facility.

Capital management and dividend
The company also announced that it has expanded its previous dividend policy into a broader capital management policy. The company’s priority is to appropriately invest in the business to support long term sustainable growth. The company has maintained a target debt-to-debt-plus-equity ratio in the range of +5% to -5%, and the company expects to increase dividends as earnings grow, while taking into consideration the target gearing ratio. A copy of the new capital management policy is available on the company’s website at www.fphcare.com/capital-management (http://www.fphcare.com/capital-management).
In accordance with the company’s capital management policy, the directors have approved a final dividend of 15.5 cents per share, an increase of 15% on the final dividend last year. This brings the total dividend for the year to 27.5 cents per share, an increase of 18% on last year. The final dividend, carrying full New Zealand imputation credit, will be paid on 17 July 2020 with a record date of 7 July 2020.
Outlook for FY2021

“We cannot predict the scope, duration or impact of COVID-19 and its effects on our operations and financial results,” said Mr Gradon. “In the midst of this uncertainty, we will continue doing what we are known for – expanding our range of innovative products with patients at the centre.
“For the first three months of FY21 our Hospital product group growth has continued to accelerate, with hardware growth of over 300%, and hospital consumables tracking at over a one-third increase, compared to the first three months of FY20. In our Homecare product group we are seeing evidence of both a lower OSA diagnosis rate, and OSA mask resupply levels in the beginning of FY21 returning closer to expected levels compared to the elevated levels at the end of FY20. Homecare growth for the first three months of FY21 has therefore been closer to the FY20 full year rate.
“Some costs, most significantly freight, also remained elevated during the first three months of FY21. We value a long term relationship with our customers, and we have not increased their prices.

“Due to significant uncertainty in the extent and duration of the impact of COVID-19 on global demand for our products, we have made some assumptions to allow us to provide some guidance for FY21. As a result, our guidance is provided on the basis that global hospitalisations due to COVID-19 peak for the first quarter of this financial year, and hospitalisations for respiratory-related illnesses and OSA diagnostic activity steadily return to normal by the end of our first half. On this basis and at current exchange rates, full year operating revenue for the 2021 financial year would be approximately $1.48 billion and net profit after tax would be approximately $325 million to $340 million.

“Our assumption for guidance is not a prediction of the course of COVID-19 around the world. We are continuing to grow manufacturing capacity of hospital products during our 2021 financial year to ensure a further increase in supply of our respiratory products is available if required.
“Construction is complete on our fourth manufacturing building in New Zealand. As we bring forward capital expenditure spending for new product tooling and manufacturing capacity we expect capital expenditure for the 2021 financial year to be approximately $160 million.

“I want to recognise our suppliers, customers, shareholders, clinical partners, government agencies – and especially, our employees – for your support this year. Thanks to you, our products were used to treat around 16 million patients last year, including patients with COVID-19 all over the world.
“Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is resilient and well-positioned to respond to the global pandemic and adapt to a ‘new normal’. We are confident that our innovative products and therapies will continue to shape the future of care in hospitals and homes,” concluded Mr Gradon.

Overview of key results for the 2020 financial year
• 37% growth in net profit after tax to a record $287.3 million.
• 18% growth in operating revenue to a record $1.26 billion, 14% growth in constant currency.
• 25% growth in Hospital operating revenue, 21% growth in constant currency.
• 23% constant currency revenue growth for new applications consumables; i.e. products used in non-invasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow therapy, and surgical applications, accounting for 64% of Hospital consumables revenue.
• 9% growth in Homecare operating revenue, 4% growth in constant currency.
• 4% growth in constant currency revenue in OSA masks.
• Investment in R&D was 9% of revenue, or $118.5 million.
• 15% increase in final dividend to 15.5 cps (2019: 13.5 cps).
 
About Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is a leading designer, manufacturer and marketer of products and systems for use in respiratory care, acute care, surgery and the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea. The company’s products are sold in over 120 countries worldwide. For more information about the company, visit our website www.fphcare.com (http://www.fphcare.com).
Ends

[trader_jackson]

No doubt these are nice results... but for FY21 (assuming they hit the very top of their range), FPH is on a Forward PE of 53x this is surely a bit overdone!

[Blue Skies]

That 37% increase in profit look pretty darn exciting to me, when you consider ('beginning January the demand for our ..... accelerated in a way that has been unprecedented ') Covid-19 pandemic only impacted the final few months of the financial year.

Imagine if they had been fully geared up to meet the increased demand and it reflected 12 month result.
No need to imagine, we'll see that this coming year!

As some of us here predicted, as a result of the Covid pandemic there will be an ongoing massive demand for their devices and consumables in the coming years.

[BlackPeter]

That 37% increase in profit look pretty darn exciting to me, when you consider ('beginning January the demand for our ..... accelerated in a way that has been unprecedented ') Covid-19 pandemic only impacted the final few months of the financial year.

Imagine if they had been fully geared up to meet the increased demand and it reflected 12 month result.
No need to imagine, we'll see that this coming year!

As some of us here predicted, as a result of the Covid pandemic there will be an ongoing massive demand for their devices and consumables in the coming years.

It is just - everything in live is cyclical ... and so are pandemics. Just when you are fully geared up to sell all the stuff you want to fight it, then the virus will have run its path anyway and just disappears.

Enjoy the sun while it shines, but better don't expect the sun to continue shining for years to come. The FPH trend will return to the medium - as any other trend does as well. Question is just - will SP drop significantly, or will the SP have another looong plateau (with some ripples) as the one between 2002 and 2014?

11729

Actually - interesting to look at the long term trend. Obviously - FPH was always the greatest of all possible companies, but still ... waiting for more than a decade for the SP to appreciate (from 2001 / 2002) is longer than I would want to wait as long term investor. Anyway - history never repeats, they say ...

[Beagle]

Excellent result and outlook. Will it exceed the market's already very lofty expectations ?

Thanks BP, you've added some very valuable perspective to this.

[iceman]

Another good result from this great NZ company. Should be in any longterm portfolio

[Bjauck]

Another good result from this great NZ company. Should be in any longterm portfolio Amazingly for our current times, a nice increase in dividend too and even then they were being cautious.

[share4eva]

It is just - everything in live is cyclical ... and so are pandemics. Just when you are fully geared up to sell all the stuff you want to fight it, then the virus will have run its path anyway and just disappears.

Enjoy the sun while it shines, but better don't expect the sun to continue shining for years to come. The FPH trend will return to the medium - as any other trend does as well. Question is just - will SP drop significantly, or will the SP have another looong plateau (with some ripples) as the one between 2002 and 2014?

11729

Actually - interesting to look at the long term trend. Obviously - FPH was always the greatest of all possible companies, but still ... waiting for more than a decade for the SP to appreciate (from 2001 / 2002) is longer than I would want to wait as long term investor. Anyway - history never repeats, they say ...

Ah here's old Mr Downramper back. You got it wrong at $12 so why don't you please move along to another thread. Cheers

[sam green]

Ah here's old Mr Downramper back. You got it wrong at $12 so why don't you please move along to another thread. Cheers
The value in this forum is definitely the range of opinions. Just like in real life.

[share4eva]

The value in this forum is definitely the range of opinions. Just like in real life.

He couldn't help himself could he??!!. Nothing positive, all negative. I really despise people like that

[tango]

Another good result from this great NZ company. Should be in any longterm portfolio

I love this company. I sold some down at $16 and wish I had kept it all. Woulda coulda shoulda
Still, I am happy to have a decent chunk of shares in FPH and I am keeping the rest!

[Waltzing]

Lucky holders, be aware in a few years time if the US dollar finally tanks... the PE on this will determine its direction. Remember the last time the USD looked like it would tank. The volumns were huge. This was some time ago of course those of use who thought QE would tank the USD were wrong... still made a few of this at the time ..

[macduffy]

I love this company. I sold some down at $16 and wish I had kept it all. Woulda coulda shoulda
Still, I am happy to have a decent chunk of shares in FPH and I am keeping the rest!

Fair enough, tango. I'm in FPH too, in a modest way. But don't fall in love with the company - or any others - it's a sure way to blind oneself to reality!

:)

[peat]

note that in reality npat grew 23% not 37%

I make earnings about 50c per share. so thats a PE of about 64 for a growth of 23. Not a great PEG
eg Ebos makes a $1 per share and is only $21
FPH has half those earnings and costs 50% more at $33

good for holders I guess but crazy for investors

[share4eva]

note that in reality npat grew 23% not 37%

I make earnings about 50c per share. so thats a PE of about 64 for a growth of 23. Not a great PEG
eg Ebos makes a $1 per share and is only $21
FPH has half those earnings and costs 50% more at $33

good for holders I guess but crazy for investors

Another downramper. Move along young lad

[peat]

Another downramper. Move along young lad

thanks for the young adjective , very flattering but FTR I have no particular interest
the post is just a PSA.

disc not short or long and wont buy anything above PE 30 ever.

[share4eva]

thanks for the young adjective , very flattering but FTR I have no particular interest
the post is just a PSA.

disc not short or long and wont buy anything above PE 30 ever.

If you have no interest in FPH then just go away

[peat]

If you have no interest in FPH then just go away
correction : I have no financial interest
and who are you to tell me to go away with your 28 posts. the cheek of you whippersnappers.
if you are happy to pay 60 times earnings then you should be doing some reading about history and finance is what I'm saying and one day you will understand

you're welcome

[BlackPeter]

Ah here's old Mr Downramper back. You got it wrong at $12 so why don't you please move along to another thread. Cheers

Very ugly and dumb post.

The idea of this and other forums is to share different views. If you just want to listen to your own views, well - why don't you just write regular emails to yourself?

[share4eva]

correction : I have no financial interest
and who are you to tell me to go away with your 28 posts. the cheek of you whippersnappers.
if you are happy to pay 60 times earnings then you should be doing some reading about history and finance is what I'm saying and one day you will understand

you're welcome

Looks like you missed out on getting in at $3. Don't worry I'm sure another MONSTER like FPH will come along for you over the next 20 years

[share4eva]

Very ugly and dumb post.

The idea of this and other forums is to share different views. If you just want to listen to your own views, well - why don't you just write regular emails to yourself?

I did write an email to myself and congratulated myself for buying FPH at $2.77. Profit now over $100k. Yay me!

[macduffy]

Now, let's not let the FPH thread develop into the sort of slanging match that we see too often on Sharetrader.

:)

[share4eva]

I'm sorry. I'll stop now. Cheers.

Actually just one more thing. Your downramping this morning appears to be working guys so well done! You must all be so proud

[Biscuit]

I did write an email to myself and congratulated myself for buying FPH at $2.77. Profit now over $100k. Yay me!

Congratulations. FPH are an exceptional company. I've been regularly selling shares in it since about 2012 and it still somehow manages to rise towards the top of my portfolio in value, very frustrating. Even exceptional companies can be poor investments though and posters who point out their view on the investment value of a company are not "down-rampers" or "up-rampers" they are expressing their views as part of the debate in the forum.

[winner69]

I'm sorry. I'll stop now. Cheers.

Actually just one more thing. Your downramping this morning appears to be working guys so well done! You must all be so proud

Don’t stop now mate ...I love hearing success stories and want to follow you making your next hundred grand.

Any other good tips

[share4eva]

Don’t stop now mate ...I love hearing success stories and want to follow you making your next hundred grand.

Any other good tips

My only success in the last 20 years, so please don't follow any of my tips!

[Bjauck]

I did write an email to myself and congratulated myself for buying FPH at $2.77. Profit now over $100k. Yay me! I am not sure why you “despise” people for holding a different opinion of a stock, from which you have done so well. To me, it sounds like energy wasted and a misplaced emotion. My broker was critical of this stock and advised selling it back when it was about $8. I did not and do not despise them for that. I did reduce my holding when it reached $15.

[share4eva]

I am not sure why you “despise” people for holding a different opinion of a stock, from which you have done so well. To me, it sounds like energy wasted and a misplaced emotion. My broker was critical of this stock and advised selling it back when it was about $8. I did not and do not despise them for that. I did reduce my holding when it reached $15.

Your broker is obviously an idiot.

[Panda-NZ-]

Your broker is obviously an idiot.

Humans make mistakes and sometimes often regardless of their prior experience. It's more on the computer side and maths people who don't make their stuff public which you need to be aware. Selling down a bit & will buy back in on any weakness. great long term outlook I think.

[mfd]

Your broker is obviously an idiot.

Only with the benefit of hindsight. I'm not a holder and never have been, but I would be cautious about assuming that the temporary coronavirus stimulus is the new normal for FPH. If an effective vaccine comes along in the next year or two that will slow things down again. Certainly don't assume that this high growth rate will continue on into the future.

[iceman]

Now, let's not let the FPH thread develop into the sort of slanging match that we see too often on Sharetrader.

:)

Agreed. Important to hear different views and very clear FPH is very expensive right now on any measure. But it has been for a long time and is a great company consistently doing very well.

[Blue Skies]

It is just - everything in live is cyclical ... and so are pandemics. Just when you are fully geared up to sell all the stuff you want to fight it, then the virus will have run its path anyway and just disappears.

Enjoy the sun while it shines, but better don't expect the sun to continue shining for years to come. The FPH trend will return to the medium - as any other trend does as well. Question is just - will SP drop significantly, or will the SP have another looong plateau (with some ripples) as the one between 2002 and 2014?

11729

Actually - interesting to look at the long term trend. Obviously - FPH was always the greatest of all possible companies, but still ... waiting for more than a decade for the SP to appreciate (from 2001 / 2002) is longer than I would want to wait as long term investor. Anyway - history never repeats, they say ...



That's not the way I see it.
We often hear perhaps to reassure ourselves, that everything in life is cyclical. But I don't think that's some sort of universal truth.
While some things definitely are cyclical, others are accelerating , while others diminish & eventually vanish.

The way I see it, healthcare around the world is accelerating & will continue to do so, driven by the worlds population increase and the huge numbers of people being lifted out of poverty into the 'middle classes' with their corresponding expectations of access to better healthcare.
In the general population in the US but also other Western nations we are seeing increasing numbers of people requiring CPAP devices due to health issues like obesity, and there doesn't seem to be any political will to halt or even slow this trend down.

When we add the effects of the Covid pandemic into this, we are currently looking at a figure of 10 million cases & increasing, with a percentage of these people sustaining life long damage to their lungs.
Although hopefully Covid-19 will be eliminated either by a vaccine or just burning itself out, we now know for certain we must prepare for future Coronavirus epidemics as Covid-19 is just 1 in a list of several (SARS, MERS, H1N1, H5N1 ) since 2003.

So my view is the demand for FPH's medical devices will continue to increase, even after a vaccine is developed and eventually enough of the world's population is vaccinated to wipe it out.


Disc, long term holder.

[Bjauck]

Your broker is obviously an idiot. With hindsight maybe it becomes obvious? Idiots are not necessarily despicable.

[emveha]

Thank you for banning that guy.

[Beagle]

Another good result from this great NZ company. Should be in any longterm portfolio

I beg to differ and think others have raised legitimate valuation concerns. You never know though mate, in this crazy world of interest rates at 200 year lows a forward PE of over 50 just might prove to be pretty sticky. What if we get a cure for Covid 19 and interest rates start rising in due course though ? Will the forward PE of over 50 prove to be sticky then ?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12344028

[iceman]

I beg to differ and think others have raised legitimate valuation concerns. You never know though mate, in this crazy world of interest rates at 200 year lows a forward PE of over 50 just might prove to be pretty sticky. What if we get a cure for Covid 19 and interest rates start rising in due course though ? Will the forward PE of over 50 prove to be sticky then ?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12344028

Totally agree mate about it being very expensive right now and noted posters like yourself, peat and BP have made very vaiid valuation concerns that I agree with. You will note I did not say one should be buying it now. I said it should be a part of a long term portfolio. That is my belief and I hold it as such but the smallest NZ holding I have at only 3% of portfolio. Bought a long time ago and will be held for a long time to come yet, whatever interest rates and COVID do. Just like you and I are going to do with our PAZ shares :-)

[Snow Leopard]

note that in reality npat grew 23% not 37%

I make earnings about 50c per share. so thats a PE of about 64 for a growth of 23. Not a great PEG
eg Ebos makes a $1 per share and is only $21
FPH has half those earnings and costs 50% more at $33

good for holders I guess but crazy for investors

I am not sure where you get your 23% from?
$209M2 to $287M3 is a 37% increase and
36.5cps to 50.0cps is also a 37% increase.

That $147M of hedging reserve 'losses' had better not find it's way into the P&L !

I think I would rather have EBO than FPH, but currently hold neither.https://i1.wp.com/www.snowleopard.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/snow-leopard-paw-website.jpg?w=480&ssl=1

[Panda-NZ-]

There are a lot of upper middle income people in the US and FPH has an established market there. It's dependant on the long term breathing issues but it's not an unrealistic idea there will be long term demand across most of the range of products.

The flu is bad enough but the flu plus covid at the same time will cause some respiratory complications that won't fix themselves or where they truly "recover". I think quite a few will pay anything to be more comfortable or extend life and use these machines and consumables innovatively in their own home.

[kiora]

Ok I understand that.What does your foresight show long term ?
It seems like the SM is your hobby. That's great and a lot of us can learn a lot from your posts.
Looking ahead how long will any of us be around?10,15,20 yrs?
Who do we leave it all to and how knowledgeable will they be?
I don't know but I look at parking some of my investments I anticipate will grow over the long term with minimal need to keep a close eye on.

Posted 22/10/17
And now nearly tripled in value since including dividends.Damn hard to hold on to these FPH shares!
So many negative posters and they are all have good reasons why they will never own FPH.
But would they sell if they owned them?
I'm looking forward to a minimum of 15% compounding return in the forceable future.Sometimes higher,sometimes lower.
FPH now 42% of my share portfolio.
Sell the loosers, keep the winners

[Biscuit]

Sell the losers, keep the winners

Which I agree is very true and sound advice, but very hard to do when your winners are up 1000% plus, and are on PE of more than 50!

[GR8DAY]

DIRECT showing a PE of over 70!??

[Mr Slothbear]

DIRECT showing a PE of over 70!?? as far as I know it hasn’t updated to reflect the new earnings yet but never the less I believe the P/E is still well in the 60’s and very over valued by my calculations.

Fantastic post Peat, you made a very good summation. When looking at the NPAT I would go with what the business has achieved and not the vagueries of currency fluctuations as these are likely to unwind and will over the long term balance out.

PEG of approx 3

[macduffy]

It's becoming harder to hold FPH as the SP breaches $35! A great company and all that and the wind is certainly in their sails at present but every time I see posters predicting an indefinite rosy future I'm reminded of a certain CEO of an Aust copper company and his constant cry of "stronger for longer" at the height of the mining boom a couple of decades ago. Like all such booms, it ended abruptly and the company concerned was forced to restructure in a much diminished way. I don't see this happening to FPH, which I hold, but I certainly wouldn't be adding any more at these prices.

[percy]

Wife told me this morning I had made a big mistake selling her FPH, shares,should have held onto them.
Really I said,where do you think the money came to buy your PAZ shares from?
So it really comes down to selling one great share to buy an even better one,on more modest ratios.
Not easy to do,however.

[Biscuit]

If it can grow earnings at around 30% consistently for the next 7 to 10 years, it be a pretty good investment now at a PE of just 60.

[Blue Skies]

It might look expensive today, ( as it did 1 year ago today at $15.88) but will that look expensive 1 year from now?

[peat]

I am not sure where you get your 23% from?

That $147M of hedging reserve 'losses' had better not find it's way into the P&L !


from their own announcement in constant currency.

which figure is the bottom line ?

if they lost money in their dealing room it counts as a negative is they way I see it.

[kiora]

"10 Semi-Controversial Traits Of Some Of The Best Stocks"
"Bottom Line
Don't let some of the traits that are universally considered as negative attributes for a stock prevent you from buying and holding some of the best-of-breed businesses available on the market."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4356062-10-semi-controversial-traits-of-of-best-stocks?source=email_must_read:position_0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=must-read-10-semi-controversial-traits-of-some-of-the-best-stocks&utm_campaign=nl-must-read&utm_content=link-0

[Mr Slothbear]

Wife told me this morning I had made a big mistake selling her FPH, shares,should have held onto them.
Really I said,where do you think the money came to buy your PAZ shares from?
So it really comes down to selling one great share to buy an even better one,on more modest ratios.
Not easy to do,however.

made me laugh :D. Thanks for sharing

[Beagle]

Totally agree mate about it being very expensive right now and noted posters like yourself, peat and BP have made very vaiid valuation concerns that I agree with. You will note I did not say one should be buying it now. I said it should be a part of a long term portfolio. That is my belief and I hold it as such but the smallest NZ holding I have at only 3% of portfolio. Bought a long time ago and will be held for a long time to come yet, whatever interest rates and COVID do. Just like you and I are going to do with our PAZ shares :-)

Fair enough mate and kudos to you for taking a very long term approach. Congrats to all long term holders. https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517101/first-20-billion-new-zealand-company-minted.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+30+Jun+ 2020

[kiora]

Just another reason to keep good supplies in hospitals worldwide
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/2019-2020/cdc-prepare-swine-flu.html

[winner69]

Shareprice $40 beckons .... then we can look forward to $50

Companies generating such high levels of excess profit over its cost of capital deserve prices like this

Paradox should do he reidual income modelling on FPH instead of tinkering around with OCA

[kiora]

Shareprice $40 beckons .... then we can look forward to $50

Companies generating such high levels of excess profit over its cost of capital deserve prices like this

Paradox should do he reidual income modelling on FPH instead of tinkering around with OCA

Yep the imagination sees what the eye can't see.
So this financial year what do we know & surmise?
That C 19 looks like its likely here to stay for this financial year
That they are keeping their customers happy by maintaining prices & not gouging
No effective control of Covid 19 by vaccine or cost effective treatment available this financial year?
Last year "Net profit after tax was $287.3 million, up 37% over the previous year, or 30% in constant
currency. Excluding the impact from tax changes, being the R&D tax credit and building tax
depreciation, net profit after tax grew 23% in constant currency."
I'll take a stab in the dark at 2021 to be around 25% up on 2020,$360 m net profit after tax
Ok PE still high at around 54

[Biscuit]

Probably appropriate for this thread: stop thinking like a trader and start thinking like a dead man.

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/all-summer-in-a-day# (https://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/all-summer-in-a-day#)

[Jim]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12346496

[Panda-NZ-]

zoming away again. not directly invested anymore but have some as part of the smartshares TNZ fund.

Their strong market position in the new epicentre could pay off. good to see this exporter doing well :)

[Paradox]

Shareprice $40 beckons .... then we can look forward to $50

Companies generating such high levels of excess profit over its cost of capital deserve prices like this

Paradox should do he reidual income modelling on FPH instead of tinkering around with OCA

Now that’s a thought...

[kiora]

Yep the imagination sees what the eye can't see.
So this financial year what do we know & surmise?
That C 19 looks like its likely here to stay for this financial year
That they are keeping their customers happy by maintaining prices & not gouging
No effective control of Covid 19 by vaccine or cost effective treatment available this financial year?
Last year "Net profit after tax was $287.3 million, up 37% over the previous year, or 30% in constant
currency. Excluding the impact from tax changes, being the R&D tax credit and building tax
depreciation, net profit after tax grew 23% in constant currency."
I'll take a stab in the dark at 2021 to be around 25% up on 2020,$360 m net profit after tax
Ok PE still high at around 54

OK I may have undershot
Craigs now saying NET Income 2021 $435m,PE 45,12 month price target $38.26
I won't be complaining.

[Blue Skies]

Interesting, Auckland Airport saying Respiratory Equipment the highest export growth commodity up 348% in June over the previous year.
When you consider Covid really only impacted that growth since February or March, it’s pretty incredible.
How many companies are seeing this kind of growth at the moment & for the foreseeable future.

[Ggcc]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358152

Looks like very positive things happening here. Just look at that share price

[Zaphod]

Interesting, Auckland Airport saying Respiratory Equipment the highest export growth commodity up 348% in June over the previous year.
When you consider Covid really only impacted that growth since February or March, it’s pretty incredible.
How many companies are seeing this kind of growth at the moment & for the foreseeable future.

Will the recent sales of equipment saturate the market and consequently lower growth rates over the longer term though? Not sure...

[Getty]

Kiora.s pre ann. NPAT guess was very good, Craig's maybe slightly optimistic, but I dont foresee any reduction in sales, health authorities around the world will be under pressure to tool up with FPH style products.

Dr JPG.

Free Diagnosis.
If you're feeling the PINCH, there's nothing wrong with your NERVOUS SYSTEM.

[Blue Skies]

Will the recent sales of equipment saturate the market and consequently lower growth rates over the longer term though? Not sure...


We're approaching 5.5 million cases in the US alone. With 268,000 new Covid cases around the world just yesterday, with over 42,000 in the US, I think we can say with absolute assurance, FPH have no where near saturated the market.

A percentage of these cases will sustain long term damage to their lungs needing long term respiratory assistance both in hospital & at home from the sorts of products FPH provide.

Demand is only going to accelerate.

The Northern hemisphere is heading into winter and the flu season so doubly worried.

[Leftfield]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358152
Looks like very positive things happening here. Just look at that share price

Well done holders..... great to see this company doing so well. A definite long term hold.

( disc not holding - missed a couple of 'buy' opportunities :()

[sb9]

Well done holders..... great to see this company doing so well. A definite long term hold.

( disc not holding - missed a couple of 'buy' opportunities :()

Yeah, echo the same sentiment here too. Great kiwi success story along likes of ATM, MFT etc...

Nearly bought around $19 mark last year but didn't actually happen, bugger...

[Jaa]

They have also expanded into new markets so that should ensure a long term increase in the rate of growth as more countries are now familiar with the products and technology.

[kiora]

Will the recent sales of equipment saturate the market and consequently lower growth rates over the longer term though? Not sure...

Saturate the market ?????
With consumables "new applications consumables which now account for 62% of our Hospital consumables revenue.” from the 2019 FR
So isn't 60 % recurring ?

[Zaphod]

Saturate the market ?????
With consumables "new applications consumables which now account for 62% of our Hospital consumables revenue.” from the 2019 FR
So isn't 60 % recurring ?

Can you please provide a cite to where I referred to consumables?

What my actual statement is based upon is that some countries are now reporting that supplies of ventilators are now sufficient.

[MarineSalvage]

They get replaced reasonably often though
Can you please provide a cite to where I referred to consumables?

What my actual statement is based upon is that some countries are now reporting that supplies of ventilators are now sufficient.

[Blue Skies]

Can you please provide a cite to where I referred to consumables?

What my actual statement is based upon is that some countries are now reporting that supplies of ventilators are now sufficient.



I find that extraordinary. Which countries?
Hospitals in the US, China, Sth Korea, Germany, France, Italy, UK, 10 African Countries, India, Bangladesh etc etc are all specifically reported recently as desperately short of ventilators, where doctors are having to make life and death decisions about who gets one.
Manufacturers are saying there's no easy way to increase production at anywhere near the level needed to match demand & demand continues to race way ahead of capacity.

The only source of such an assertion I can find is from highly dubious media supporting Trump's assertion at one stage that the US has plenty of ventilators for everyone & is going to send some to countries who are friendly to the US.
I believe this is just politicking the health crisis & glaringly doesn't match the reality in the US where sources like John Hopkins Uni say they need at least half a million new ventilators in the US now.

[Zaphod]

I find that extraordinary. Which countries?
Hospitals in the US, China, Sth Korea, Germany, France, Italy, UK, 10 African Countries, India, Bangladesh etc etc are all specifically reported recently as desperately short of ventilators, where doctors are having to make life and death decisions about who gets one.
Manufacturers are saying there's no easy way to increase production at anywhere near the level needed to match demand & demand continues to race way ahead of capacity.

The only source of such an assertion I can find is from highly dubious media supporting Trump's assertion at one stage that the US has plenty of ventilators for everyone & is going to send some to countries who are friendly to the US.
I believe this is just politicking the health crisis & glaringly doesn't match the reality in the US where sources like John Hopkins Uni say they need at least half a million new ventilators in the US now.

It was an article from the UK. I'll hunt it down and post the link. Essentially, they stated that the NHS has obtained sufficient numbers of ventilators (mechanical and non-invasive types) to ensure all patients who required one had access to them since around June. Prior to that, there were significant issues surrounding supply. The article also noted that UK manufacturers were now exporting ventilators to Europe, but there was still some importation of more specialised devices from Sweeden (I think).

Another article I read noted that in the US, New York has provided surplus ventilators to other states. I'm purposefully avoiding any White House press releases or known politically aligned media sources, as I'm well aware of the bias introduced there.

[kiora]

Can you please provide a cite to where I referred to consumables?

What my actual statement is based upon is that some countries are now reporting that supplies of ventilators are now sufficient.

From the 2019 Financial Accounts
62 % of sales are consumables,not hardware
What % of sales are consumables now?
Note:As far as I am aware FPH don't sell ventilators

[Blue Skies]

From the 2019 Financial Accounts
62 % of sales are consumables,not hardware
What % of sales are consumables now?
Note:As far as I am aware FPH don't sell ventilators


You're quite right they don't produce ventilators, but I understand the gentle air flow of their CPAP machines have been found in some cases superior to standard ventilators in the treatment of patients with severely Covid damaged lungs. (the higher pressure of ventilators causing more damage)
Im not sure whether the massive increase in demand is directly due to this or that recovering patients will need some degree of life long respiratory assistance, even if just for sleep, however, there's been a huge increase in demand caused by the Covid pandemic.
As we know, prior to Covid, demand was already rocketing due to the growing numbers of ageing westerners suffering from ailments like overweight which contribute to sleep apnea.

[Jaa]

Great show and tell section of the FPH virtual annual meeting that many of the commenters above would do well to watch if they make it available.

In short, FPH don't sell ventilators but they do sell humidification hardware that attaches to both invasive and non-invasive ventilators made by other companies that then regulate the humidity, temperature and airflow to a patient. This humidification hardware helps more people survive and recover faster.

Once COVID has (hopefully) passed they seem confident in shifting the business from supplying hardware to supplying consumables for all the extra hardware they have rushed out the door this year. Obviously the humidification hardware needs to prove its worth to doctors and administrators around the world for this to happen.

[tango]

Great show and tell section of the FPH virtual annual meeting that many of the commenters above would do well to watch if they make it available.

In short, FPH don't sell ventilators but they do sell humidification hardware that attaches to both invasive and non-invasive ventilators made by other companies that then regulate the humidity, temperature and airflow to a patient. This humidification hardware helps more people survive and recover faster.

Once COVID has (hopefully) passed they seem confident in shifting the business from supplying hardware to supplying consumables for all the extra hardware they have rushed out the door this year. Obviously the humidification hardware needs to prove its worth to doctors and administrators around the world for this to happen.

My internet kept cutting in and out so I missed sections of the meeting. I am hoping it was recorded

[kiora]

FPH pulled the trigger early.
The world depends on them.Humidifier conditions air to body temperature and 100 % humidity and attaches to ventilator (not made by FPH)
70-80% of world sales
Includes neonatal,non invasive ventilation,70 L/m ventilation high flow nasal therapy keeps 70 % of patients off ventilators,change in clinical practice even non Covid
Clinicians seeing the benefits for 4 million Covid patients over time demonstrates benefit so post Covid clinicians see 50 million patients would benefit

Suppliers supplying 5 X normal supplies....... sales ......



https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/the-detail/300099977/the-detail-preparing-for-coronavirus-paid-off-for-fisher--paykel-healthcare

[BlackPeter]

FPH pulled the trigger early.
The world depends on them.Humidifier conditions air to body temperature and 100 % humidity and attaches to ventilator (not made by FPH)
70-80% of world sales
Includes neonatal,non invasive ventilation,70 L/m ventilation high flow nasal therapy keeps 70 % of patients off ventilators,change in clinical practice even non Covid
Clinicians seeing the benefits for 4 million Covid patients over time demonstrates benefit so post Covid clinicians see 50 million patients would benefit

Suppliers supplying 5 X normal supplies....... sales ......



https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/the-detail/300099977/the-detail-preparing-for-coronavirus-paid-off-for-fisher--paykel-healthcare

Clearly - a company with outstanding management. There are only a handful of them in NZ. Always a good buy below the MA 400 ;):

[kiora]

""In Sweden it's estimated there are over 150,000 people who have been ill with Covid-19 symptoms now for more than 10 weeks. I am one of them.
I had blood oxygen levels that under normal circumstances would trigger a clinical assessment of supplemental oxygen."
Market not even close to being saturated

[JimmyTrade]

""In Sweden it's estimated there are over 150,000 people who have been ill with Covid-19 symptoms now for more than 10 weeks. I am one of them.
I had blood oxygen levels that under normal circumstances would trigger a clinical assessment of supplemental oxygen."
Market not even close to being saturated

Pun intended... :p

[kiora]

As I was saying .......
"Fischer & Paykel is definitely a beneficiary of COVID. Ventilators are in high demand, they produce them, but as part of what's been going on, their nasal high flow product is also getting used more and being seen as a really good frontline usage and people are actually implementing more and more of their product and therefore there's a longer story, it's not just about COVID ventilators. Everyone knows that the ventilators are going to go up and down, but actually, there's something here that's going to be more long lasting. That's the thing we're looking for,"
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/value-and-growth-traps-how-to-avoid-both-and-beat-the-market

[kiora]

If SP follows earnings what are the Chinese whispers saying about the next earnings release?

[alokdhir]

If SP follows earnings what are the Chinese whispers saying about the next earnings release?

From my own research and market rumours ....around 850 mil revenue and 200 mil profits

Also most likely they will upgrade full year guidance to 1.8 billion and 425 mil profits

IMHO ...so will find out surely on 25th morning ...

They have very ambitious expansion plans in going for 70% capacity expansion in next 2 years ...so must be getting good vibes from buyers of their products !

[kiora]

Thanks Alok
Net profit I assume that is, PE around 44?
That is growth 2 years ahead of previous brokers estimates before Covid hit and over 15 % higher than my previous estimate in July, phew !

[alokdhir]

Thanks Alok
Net profit I assume that is, PE around 44?
That is growth 2 years ahead of previous brokers estimates before Covid hit and over 15 % higher than my previous estimate in July, phew !

Yes its net profit of 425 mil estimated for FY 21 giving it a forward PE around 44...
But its all due to covid ...at present they themselves very conservative in saying it wont last ...Resmed RMD said in its last results guidance that super fast growth will taper off soon ...
It doesn't seem so at the moment ...maybe we will get into a period of consolidation in which share price will move sideways with mild downward bias ...but when it will happen depends upon covid control etc .
Though its a great company with excellent track record and management . Best quality on offer ...Most owned institutional stock of NZ ...hardly any retail holders so ATM type shaking of tree here doesn't work ...most institutions do their own research and hold till they get positive data ...not get scared into selling it ..lol

What are your price expectations after this Nov results ...I think 40 + easily possible if they upgrade yearly guidance

From Nz stats data around 60% increase in respiratory equipment exports from last year ending sept 2020 ...they have a big factory in Mexico also ...so not sure that will be seperate additions ?

August middle they upgraded their june guidance ...at that time they assumed covid will be under some control by year end ...which does not seems to be happening

Will be happy to know your thoughts as you have deep knowledge of this company

[kiora]

I don't know that I have any deeper knowledge than any one else here.
Regardless of Covid or not, I expect earnings growth YOY to be between 10-20 %(at a stretch)
They have only tapped 15% of their potential market and Covid appears to be making the clinicians better aware of the potential of O2 & humidification support.
As per SP expectations? who knows or cares?
SP always follows earnings

[macduffy]

SP always follows earnings

Yes, in the long run. Short term, it's the anticipation that sets the pace!

;)

[alokdhir]

Any thoughts on how this Covid vaccine news will effect SP of FPH in near term and also longer term prospects

As struggling to make up my mind about it

In USA markets its competitor Res Med RMD did well ...so did FPH on OTC but vols were low as usual for FPH

It was a big beneficiary of Covid ...so now will it be big looser on cure ??

[MarineSalvage]

Market thinks it will be a loser - seems like a very kneejerk reaction though

[alokdhir]

Market thinks it will be a loser - seems like a very kneejerk reaction though

I also think so that selling off NZ top and best managed company with excellent record and balance sheet is knee jerk ...but fact remains that it may become market under performer for some time till its covid related up move gets absorbed with normal earnings ...still a hold based on quality of the company IMHO

[Blue Skies]

Any thoughts on how this Covid vaccine news will effect SP of FPH in near term and also longer term prospects

As struggling to make up my mind about it

In USA markets its competitor Res Med RMD did well ...so did FPH on OTC but vols were low as usual for FPH





It was a big beneficiary of Covid ...so now will it be big looser on cure ??


Before Covid came along the growth in demand for the sorts of products FPH make was huge with healthcare one of the fastest growing sectors around the world. Then Covid came along and to that added millions of people who will be left with some degree of respiratory damage. The surge in demand has barely begun.

[ratkin]

Before Covid came along the growth in demand for the sorts of products FPH make was huge with healthcare one of the fastest growing sectors around the world. Then Covid came along and to that added millions of people who will be left with some degree of respiratory damage. The surge in demand has barely begun.

Much of it was already priced in though, very high multiples

[alokdhir]

If it keeps delivering like before then higher multiples can be justified ahead also as its a growing , quality company in a fast growth specialist area ...not easy to be replicated .

Today its worst performer ( on some 150k vol down 7.4% ) ...soon Institutions who own most of it may wake up ...lol

But still acknowledge that it will need longish time to recover . Hold though

[MarineSalvage]

Seems like a big call to say we’ve cracked COVID and start buying cruise line shares..

[alokdhir]

I am surprised its competitor or similar business company is up 3% in USA Res Med ( RMD ) ..where as our poor FPH is down 8% ...seems like pretty imbalanced reaction ...if selling on Vaccine news then should sell Ventilator making company too ...

Maybe thats what called markets and value of being USA listed and US company .

Even ozzies are doing the same ...following USA markets taking RMD to new highs and FPH to dumps !!!

[ratkin]

I am surprised its competitor or similar business company is up 3% in USA Res Med ( RMD ) ..where as our poor FPH is down 8% ...seems like pretty imbalanced reaction ...if selling on Vaccine news then should sell Ventilator making company too ...

Maybe thats what called markets and value of being USA listed and US company .

Even ozzies are doing the same ...following USA markets taking RMD to new highs and FPH to dumps !!!

It is more that people saw it as a safe harbour, one of the few, apart from the power companies. Now the vaccine is coming some other sectors are derisked so there will be rotation into them as they have more room to rise

[alokdhir]

It is more that people saw it as a safe harbour, one of the few, apart from the power companies. Now the vaccine is coming some other sectors are derisked so there will be rotation into them as they have more room to rise

Logic of selling FPH I understand . But not doing the same to similar company like Res Med I dont understand ...that was the point I was trying to make ...

[ratkin]

Logic of selling FPH I understand . But not doing the same to similar company like Res Med I dont understand ...that was the point I was trying to make ...

Yeah but the NZ exchange is very small so all the eggs are in the one basket, but I get your point, for example EBOS is not down today.

[alokdhir]

For me FPH is a hold still ...need to look beyond todays price action and look forward to 25th Nov for half yearly results and future guidance

That should wake up the markets to its future potential ...lol

[Blue Skies]

FPH def a hold for me too & any weakness a buying opportunity.
Health is the number 1 priority now for govt's around the world & with over 50 million cases, 15% of which classified as severe, that's 7.5 million people who are likely to have chronic lifetime respiratory issues, added to the rapidly growing numbers of people prior to the pandemic who needed assistance, demand for these sorts of respiratory products and their consumables is not going to be satiated any time soon, not even scratch the surface.
And that's assuming this vaccine works, no bad side effects, the virus doesn't mutate, everybody gets vaccinated, and no new respiratory virus comes along (which they have been on average every 10 years).

[alokdhir]

FPH def a hold for me too & any weakness a buying opportunity.
Health is the number 1 priority now for govt's around the world & with over 50 million cases, 15% of which classified as severe, that's 7.5 million people who are likely to have chronic lifetime respiratory issues, added to the rapidly growing numbers of people prior to the pandemic who needed assistance, demand for these sorts of respiratory products and their consumables is not going to be satiated any time soon, not even scratch the surface.
And that's assuming this vaccine works, no bad side effects, the virus doesn't mutate, everybody gets vaccinated, and no new respiratory virus comes along (which they have been on average every 10 years).

Fully agree with your views .

Happy to hold . Very happy with its management and balance sheet

It has very ambitious growth plans of increasing capacity by 70% in next two years ...U dont do that if u dont see demand .

$ 50 price target in next 24 months ...my humble call ...lol

[macduffy]

[QUOTE]FPH def a hold for me too & any weakness a buying opportunity. [QUOTE]

Is a 10% drop enough of a weakness? It is for me, I've bought a few more today.

[Checkmate]

[QUOTE]FPH def a hold for me too & any weakness a buying opportunity. [QUOTE]

Is a 10% drop enough of a weakness? It is for me, I've bought a few more today.
At such massive multiples how is a 10% drop creating a buy opportunity? Is it growing fast enough to justify the PE ratio?

[JimmyTrade]

[QUOTE=macduffy;855741][QUOTE]FPH def a hold for me too & any weakness a buying opportunity.
At such massive multiples how is a 10% drop creating a buy opportunity? Is it growing fast enough to justify the PE ratio?

Agreed, massively overvalued at the moment. Would be a buy around $16 for myself.

Lunch money interview with the CEO suggested sales would decline significantly after COVID due to surplus of ventilator machines in the hospitals. They do have consumables however and other products not influenced from COVID for example sleep apnea machines

[ratkin]

[QUOTE=macduffy;855741][QUOTE]FPH def a hold for me too & any weakness a buying opportunity.
At such massive multiples how is a 10% drop creating a buy opportunity? Is it growing fast enough to justify the PE ratio?

Yeah this is it. Back in March I bought at 28.00 and even then they were considered very expensive fundamentally. Since then they have had a covid push, based on them doing unspecified things with covid patients. Now covid ending maybe it will go back to around that 28 dollar mark. That is if Covid really is ending

[MarineSalvage]

Love how the media are going crazy and Megan woods promising we’ll all have the vaccine ASAP... it’s a non complete phase 3... yes safety profile is ok... but we aren’t seeing end of COVID for a very long time

[alex f]

Today’s drop was compounded by the US $ falling. (Resumed not affected)
FPH were 31.50 a few months ago, US dollar and vaccine worries.
The Pfizer vaccine is miles away from emergency approval and works 90% of the time (premature press release to boost their share price) it’s not a cure all and maybe of no use to the 2% who are badly affected.

On the upside if there is a vaccine, sales of the sleep apnea equipment will climb, as those clients won’t be dying early from the virus.

[alex f]

2 weeks Friday until the half year release.

[Lion_graf]

Today’s drop was compounded by the US $ falling. (Resumed not affected)
FPH were 31.50 a few months ago, US dollar and vaccine worries.
The Pfizer vaccine is miles away from emergency approval and works 90% of the time (premature press release to boost their share price) it’s not a cure all and maybe of no use to the 2% who are badly affected.

On the upside if there is a vaccine, sales of the sleep apnea equipment will climb, as those clients won’t be dying early from the virus.

I read somewhere that WHO will back a vaccine with more than 50-60% accuracy so I think 90% is pretty bloody good.

[dreamcatcher]

Expensive for me as feel covid-19 coming to an end but would dip my toes in around $24

[Jaa]

Today’s drop was compounded by the US $ falling. (Resumed not affected)
FPH were 31.50 a few months ago, US dollar and vaccine worries.
The Pfizer vaccine is miles away from emergency approval and works 90% of the time (premature press release to boost their share price) it’s not a cure all and maybe of no use to the 2% who are badly affected.

This is a completely uninformed comment.

90% is a stunning result. We only need to slow transmission of the virus to push R to 0. Get 50-60% of the population immunized and it will die out on its own.

What's more, other vaccines uses the same approach/technology as the Pfizer vaccine.

FPH will do well long term but the end of the COVID gravy is in sight.

[alokdhir]

Agree that covid boost for FPH will not last for long ...in next 3-6 months it will taper off

But FPH otherwise also is good quality stock and was doing pretty well before covid also

Either it will under perform for some time to absorb covid boost or correct sharply to come in line with its historic track of 20% earnings growth instead of 50% at present ...today half the correction done ...other half will be sideways movement for next 6 months ...most likely

[alokdhir]

Expensive for me as feel covid-19 coming to an end but would dip my toes in around $24

MFT a transport / logistics company trading at 36 PE ...

FPH is around 45 forward PE ..agree with some help from covid boost

FPH is in fast growing healthcare sector with world renowned products and innovations ( spending 10% on R&D )

MFT enjoys high PE as its a steady performer with excellent track record having great management .

Similarly FPH is number 1 NZ company providing best in all departments for a share holder ...reasons for it being most valued company of NZ

So in nutshell ...it is not that expensive in todays 1% deposit rates for 5 years terms ...lol

On 25th Nov it will report the best results of its life so far ...may not be achieved or surpassed in near future ( agree the help from covid waning )

I still have faith in the quality company to perform well even in the covid free world eventually and God willing

[macduffy]

I still have faith in the quality company to perform well even in the covid free world eventually and God willing

Yes, it did pre-covid - and will continue to do so post-covid.

[Blue Skies]

I hate to be a kill joy but.
Countries around the world and States in the US are reporting record numbers of Covid cases and in Europe (e.g. Italy) third wave of cases. Hospitals in the US & UK are overloaded with Covid cases.
The vaccine when available requires 2 doses, may only protect for 1 year & need to be kept at minus 75C presenting colossal logistical challenges delivering it (without it's efficacy being destroyed) to populations across countries. Initially NZ is supposedly getting 1.5 M doses which is only enough for 750,000 people in a population of 5 Million.
How challenging to effectively vaccinate say 70% of a population of 68 Million in the UK with 2 doses with a vaccine which may only last 1 year? The reality is mind boggling.

So if the current SP drop is a knee jerk reaction to the announcement of an effective vaccine (miraculously wiping out Covid around the globe,) then I think it's based more of short sighted sentiment than reality.
Furthermore, the lasting damage to lungs in many of the severe patients presents a whole new group of people with chronic respiratory ailments.

IMHO FPH will probably announce a record profit shortly, followed by another record profit the following year & the year after that & ....

[MarineSalvage]

right on the money Blue Skies - in reality the vaccine is a long way off and the medium term shows COVID in increasing numbers in USA and Europe
I hate to be a kill joy but.
Countries around the world and States in the US are reporting record numbers of Covid cases and in Europe (e.g. Italy) third wave of cases. Hospitals in the US & UK are overloaded with Covid cases.
The vaccine when available requires 2 doses, may only protect for 1 year & need to be kept at minus 75C presenting colossal logistical challenges delivering it (without it's efficacy being destroyed) to populations across countries. Initially NZ is supposedly getting 1.5 M doses which is only enough for 750,000 people in a population of 5 Million.
How challenging to effectively vaccinate say 70% of a population of 68 Million in the UK with 2 doses with a vaccine which may only last 1 year? The reality is mind boggling.

So if the current SP drop is a knee jerk reaction to the announcement of an effective vaccine (miraculously wiping out Covid around the globe,) then I think it's based more of short sighted sentiment than reality.
Furthermore, the lasting damage to lungs in many of the severe patients presents a whole new group of people with chronic respiratory ailments.

IMHO FPH will probably announce a record profit shortly, followed by another record profit the following year & the year after that & ....

[alokdhir]

IMHO FPH will probably announce a record profit shortly, followed by another record profit the following year & the year after that & ....

That is my humble opinion too ...

Maybe biased as I hold ...but thats my argument to myself for keep holding for next 2-3 years at least ...lol

[limmy]

IMHO FPH will probably announce a record profit shortly, followed by another record profit the following year & the year after that & ....

That is my humble opinion too ...

Maybe biased as I hold ...but thats my argument to myself for keep holding for next 2-3 years at least ...lol Many people have sold FPH in the last couple of years or so and have regretted making those decisions. Best to keep holding the stock for more good news to keep coming in.

[Oakwood]

FPH was my first NZX purchase in 2013 @2.50, sold most last year @15.85 to fund property purchase. Couldn't bear to part with all of them though, fantastic company and a great long term hold in any portfolio.

[Blue Skies]

Food for thought.

Lots of commentary re housing market huge 16% increase in Auckland house prices over last year with corresponding comments from investors saying.... where else would you put your money with bank deposit rates so low?

How about FPH, 52% increase in SP from13/11/18 to 13/11/19, followed by 60% increase 13/11/19 to 13/11/20.
Seems to have been about the same increase year on year going back several years.

[alokdhir]

Food for thought.

Lots of commentary re housing market huge 16% increase in Auckland house prices over last year with corresponding comments from investors saying.... where else would you put your money with bank deposit rates so low?

How about FPH, 52% increase in SP from13/11/18 to 13/11/19, followed by 60% increase 13/11/19 to 13/11/20.
Seems to have been about the same increase year on year going back several years.

What are the chances that U will get an opportunity to buy FPH below $ 30 any time in the future ? Maybe same as me buying neighbour's house at last year's price ...lol

[Mr Slothbear]

Food for thought.

Lots of commentary re housing market huge 16% increase in Auckland house prices over last year with corresponding comments from investors saying.... where else would you put your money with bank deposit rates so low?

How about FPH, 52% increase in SP from13/11/18 to 13/11/19, followed by 60% increase 13/11/19 to 13/11/20.
Seems to have been about the same increase year on year going back several years.

The vast majority of this increase has been from P/E expansion. Food for thought

[Lorne Ranger]

Food for thought.

Lots of commentary re housing market huge 16% increase in Auckland house prices over last year with corresponding comments from investors saying.... where else would you put your money with bank deposit rates so low?

How about FPH, 52% increase in SP from13/11/18 to 13/11/19, followed by 60% increase 13/11/19 to 13/11/20.
Seems to have been about the same increase year on year going back several years.

I get your point but to be fair the 16% house price increase is not only an increase on your own equity but also on the borrowed money! So thats an 80% return if you have the minimum equity required (say 20%) and the house is arguably the lower risk asset, AND you can rent it out! So while the housing market is so hot it is hard for shares to compete for those investors.

[iceman]

I get your point but to be fair the 16% house price increase is not only an increase on your own equity but also on the borrowed money! So thats an 80% return if you have the minimum equity required (say 20%) and the house is arguably the lower risk asset, AND you can rent it out! So while the housing market is so hot it is hard for shares to compete for those investors.

Nothing stopping you borrowing money to buy FPH as long as you have some spare equity in property to leverage against. Dividends not too dissimilar to net rental income and no hassle with unscrupulous tenants ��

[alokdhir]

FPH results forecast challenge ...

My estimates ...900 mil revenue / 215 mil NP

Updated Guidance 1.8 Bil sales with 425-440 mil NP

Guys help all with your estimates please :t_up:

[macduffy]

FPH results forecast challenge ...

My estimates ...900 mil revenue / 215 mil NP

Updated Guidance 1.8 Bil sales with 425-440 mil NP

Guys help all with your estimates please :t_up:

"Estimates" without workings are just guesses. Please show workings.

;)

[Cyclical]

Nothing stopping you borrowing money to buy FPH as long as you have some spare equity in property to leverage against. Dividends not too dissimilar to net rental income and no hassle with unscrupulous tenants ��

I did pose the question to my bank manager a few months back...can I borrow some dough against the house to buy OCA shares? At that time they were about 80 cents...what a great return that would have been. Unfortunately they didn't like the concept despite us having plenty of equity in the house. Meanwhile they're more than happy to throw money at us to buy a rental... Still, I guess things were looking pretty scary for banks a few months ago.

[kiora]

I did pose the question to my bank manager a few months back...can I borrow some dough against the house to buy OCA shares? At that time they were about 80 cents...what a great return that would have been. Unfortunately they didn't like the concept despite us having plenty of equity in the house. Meanwhile they're more than happy to throw money at us to buy a rental... Still, I guess things were looking pretty scary for banks a few months ago.

Maybe you should have told him it was for renovations, bet he would have given it to you.......

And how dumb is that ?

[Ggcc]

I did pose the question to my bank manager a few months back...can I borrow some dough against the house to buy OCA shares? At that time they were about 80 cents...what a great return that would have been. Unfortunately they didn't like the concept despite us having plenty of equity in the house. Meanwhile they're more than happy to throw money at us to buy a rental... Still, I guess things were looking pretty scary for banks a few months ago.
Same thing happened to someone else I know who has $3-5 million in shares and wanted to borrow $100,000 against his house on OCA as well at 65 cents. The bank said no, as shares are not classed as reliable assets. In the bank’s defence it was right in middle of lockdown.

[kiora]

And therein lies a problem with the distorted NZ financial system. Banks would rather lend on non productive assets.
Why ? because of their own self interest to inflate the housing market so they can lend out more money to "investors" grrrrh !!!

[dabsman]

Just get a margin account then you don't even need the conversation

[fastbike]

Or a revolving credit account

[kiora]

The SP was once far > ATM,then less and now back to worth more.
SP is correlated to $ US/NZ ? recently

Steady up tick in TO,net profit & good margins.
Aim to double every 5 years

Someone caught short today?
Up $0.94,6.2%
Posted 28-08-2019, 02:00 PM

Just over a year ago ATM SP higher than FPH
ATM still pumping out the cash
What will improve the ATM SP?

Maybe a dividend or 2 from ATM could help considerably?

[alokdhir]

Looking for views about FPH prospects ahead .

What part of Covid recovery is priced in ? How much more it need to correct to become attractive again if Covid recovery theme is fully discounted ?

Or this Covid situation will keep helping it longer then market thinking at the moment .

SP keeps coming down inspite of its best results ever to be announced are just round the corner ...so need help in trying to understand what's happening :confused:

Market expecting it to lower full year guidance or say something negative about future due to vaccine news ?

[macduffy]

Looking for views about FPH prospects ahead .

What part of Covid recovery is priced in ? How much more it need to correct to become attractive again if Covid recovery theme is fully discounted ?

Or this Covid situation will keep helping it longer then market thinking at the moment .

SP keeps coming down inspite of its best results ever to be announced are just round the corner ...so need help in trying to understand what's happening :confused:

Market expecting it to lower full year guidance or say something negative about future due to vaccine news ?

Stocks move up and stocks move down. Expectations vary likewise. In FPH's case I think the SP got a bit beyond expectations and is adjusting, short term, accordingly.

Disc. Holding.

[kiora]

Long term they have manufacturing capacity & only touching 10-15 % of their potential market.
Covid is helping not just short term COVID related sales but long term for clinicians to realize the benefits on patient recovery for other conditions as well.
https://www.fphcare.com/in/hospital/adult-respiratory/noninvasive-ventilation/nivairo/
https://www.fphcare.com/in/hospital/adult-respiratory/optiflow/
https://www.fphcare.com/in/hospital/adult-respiratory/optiflow/clinical-outcomes/
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=kiora;858203]Long term they have manufacturing capacity & only touching 10-15 % of their potential market.
Covid is helping not just short term COVID related sales but long term for clinicians to realize the benefits on patient recovery for other conditions as well.
https://www.fphcare.com/in/hospital/adult-respiratory/noninvasive-ventilation/nivairo/
https://www.fphcare.com/in/hospital/adult-respiratory/optiflow/
https://www.fphcare.com/in/hospital/adult-respiratory/optiflow/clinical-outcomes/
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/[/QUOTE

Its been on the UNDERPERFORM list of many brokerages for very long still it keeps performing alright . Its expensive multiples make many think its not a buy . Still buying keeps happening !!

What can be the main reasons for that ? ETF or Passive NZ index holders need have 16.15 % of FPH and there are lots of investments in those kind of funds !

Covid benefactor FPH did very well in last 9 months ...so what next ...give back part gains or move sideways for long till further non covid growth catches up ?

Covid has pushed its NP and revenue ahead by at least 18 months so next 18 months further growth not easy to come ...maybe the reason all have underperform rating on this stock ?

FPH future can be little difficult to judge in the next 12-24 months ....maximum a Hold

[kiora]

alokdhir
Did you check the link to the marketscreener forecasts?
Sales etc expected to level off 2022 then start rising again

[iceman]

I've been invested in FPH for about 10 years, I think. I can not think of a time during that decade when most people have not thought it was overpriced. I originally bought in at around $4.25 and people were saying it was overpriced back then and I thought so too on all the metrics I normally use. I've given up on this one and now just say it should be an essential part of any long term portfolio on the NZX. I only say that about FPH and MFT.

[alokdhir]

alokdhir
Did you check the link to the marketscreener forecasts?
Sales etc expected to level off 2022 then start rising again

Yes I checked all forecasts and also consensus targets also . Thats why the question that for next 12 months it will move side ways or further down . I did a most likely scenario that it can drop further 10 % ie maximum downside to $ 30 and upside of $ 40 in the next 12 months . That makes it a Hold for me maximum .

[alokdhir]

I've been invested in FPH for about 10 years, I think. I can not think of a time during that decade when most people have not thought it was overpriced. I originally bought in at around $4.25 and people were saying it was overpriced back then and I thought so too on all the metrics I normally use. I've given up on this one and now just say it should be an essential part of any long term portfolio on the NZX. I only say that about FPH and MFT.

I fully agree with u ...as its 16.5 % of the index ...so that makes it the most important part of the NZ market . Cant evaluate it on regular parameters . Buy and hold and forget . Just like property in nz ...lol

[KJMLimited]

FPH is one of only two stocks in NZ that I've never had to worry about. First bought in 2008 and have sold parcels over the years just because the position got too big.

[alokdhir]

FPH is one of only two stocks in NZ that I've never had to worry about. First bought in 2008 and have sold parcels over the years just because the position got too big.

All have good stories of this stock . All know its most rewarding too . All agree its super expensive compared to others . Maybe its the best thats why its most expensive too . Pay extra for quality .

I am really looking forward to what they will say about future at HY results on Wednesday . As they are always conservative in future assessment and almost always exceed their guidance by a small margin even after upgrading it little before the results . Market respects their guidance . So it will shed some very welcome light on their immediate future prospects

If they need to further increase FY prospects that will be great . Which is the most likely case IMHO

Vaccine news have come as a short term blow to its SP , maybe actual results and future guidance will reverse that pessimism ?

[Leftfield]

Wowza...... great result. See here. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/363846)

Net Profit up 86%

Well done holders!!

[Azza]

Wasn't expecting it to be that big! Should be a great day between this and turners!

[sb9]

Wasn't expecting it to be that big! Should be a great day between this and turners!

It'll be interesting to how market reacts to this result as a lot of it has already been baked into sp over past few months.

[Blue Skies]

Wow that is staggering, surely no one expected that much. For an already large mature company to increase net profit by 86% must be some kind of record.
And think of all those ongoing consumables which will be needed now.
Healthcare is definitely one of if not the fastest growing business in the world today.

[MarineSalvage]

Agree that the recurring revenue from consumables will be significant
Have added a lot more in last few weeks of weakness - happy to sit on them well into the future - unless i need a new boat

[kiora]

That's pretty close alokdhir

[iceman]

Far exceeds my wildest expectations. What a great company this is.

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=alokdhir;857031]FPH results forecast challenge ...

My estimates ...900 mil revenue / 215 mil NP

Updated Guidance 1.8 Bil sales with 425-440 mil NP

Posted on 16th Nov ...

Turned out to be pretty accurate estimates or guess what ever people happy to call :p

Now SP not yet following the most wonderful results ever seen in NZ of this scale ...means from a big company !

Vaccine has spoiled its sentiment . But FPH next results will show it was too early to think FPH story over

[alokdhir]

That's pretty close alokdhir

Thanks buddy :D

[alokdhir]

FPH was very conservative with their FY upgrade .

They already did 910 / 225 and data shows their sales increased 25 % from last qtr ie Sept qtr was 25 % more then June qtr of 2020 ...means its still going up and not down or side ways ..

IMHO they will end up around 1.95 billion / 465 mil for FY 21 ....Keeping in view world Covid situation is worst at the moment then otherwise ( sadly )

Long term benefits to company are immense ....many new doctors exposed to their equipment and its benefits ...also their equipment being used as standard care protocol for all Covid related hospitalisations .

Repeat orders and reusables orders and great positive publicity ...this should change the future trajectory of the company from 20% growth to much more in the years to come

If all goes as per plan ...FPH maybe the Apple of NZ in next 5 years

[KJMLimited]

It struggled to perform for years with the high NZD (70c plus) and when the NZD weakened the share price took off (coupled with the premium for supplying innovative health products). The NZD is now back above 70c, but the premium valuation is still there. I'm thinking therefore a flat period for the share price unless the NZD falls back below 70c and stays there.

[Joshuatree]

Good point. FWIW in Craigs latest big quarterly report out one stock featured above all their reccos,FPH, quite a write up.

[alex f]

Yes I checked all forecasts and also consensus targets also . Thats why the question that for next 12 months it will move side ways or further down . I did a most likely scenario that it can drop further 10 % ie maximum downside to $ 30 and upside of $ 40 in the next 12 months . That makes it a Hold for me maximum .

Looks like $30 might be achievable, vaccine approvals coming up next. Great buying opportunity. 5% will still get COVID (I wonder what type of people won’t respond to the vaccine) Also increasingly aged overweight population will still have sleep apnea

[Blue Skies]

Looks like $30 might be achievable, vaccine approvals coming up next. Great buying opportunity. 5% will still get COVID (I wonder what type of people won’t respond to the vaccine) Also increasingly aged overweight population will still have sleep apnea


That's a great question and often overlooked.

Vaccines won't work for anyone with any sort of suppressed immune system, anyone on chemotherapy, anyone with one of the 200 PID diseases, some diabetes, HIV, low WBC count due to flu etc.
A vaccine requires a good immune response from the receiver to build antibodies to the antigen (vaccine ) .
When you are immune suppressed, your immune system can't respond strongly enough to do it.
That's why every healthy person should get vaccinated so they are not a carrier & inadvertently kill some poor vulnerable person who needs a vaccine more than anyone but for whom vaccines won't work.

[alokdhir]

Good point. FWIW in Craigs latest big quarterly report out one stock featured above all their reccos,FPH, quite a write up.

Even Fisher funds are very upbeat about its long term prospects ...they are most impressed with how they could ramp up production so fast that they will end up doing almost 80 % extra revenue this FY .

I wont be surprised that FPH reaches $ 100 before MFT in next 3-5 years !!

[iceman]

The long term prospects are very good indeed. If anything, this current pandemic has shown how under prepared hospitals around the World have been to react to pandemic on a big scale and it is highly likely this will result in better equipped hospitals in the future. FPH will continue benefiting from such investment and equipment upgrades

[alokdhir]

From the latest Stats NZ data ...it can be estimated they did 185 mil revenue and 45 mil NP in October 2020 .

This is the highest monthly rate recorded so far . As expected ( seeing the world covid situation ) sales are still ramping up ...no signs yet of normal returning soon for them .

As all analysts are going gaga over their ability to fulfil demand so efficiently ...Hats off to the management !! Superb :t_up:

[kiora]

Good digging. Hats off to you Alokdhir.
I haven't gone back and checked GP & NP% so what is the NP based on?
No one can expect these increases for FPH to go on forever at this rate but its in a pretty good space all round

[kiora]

Craigs now updated 12 month target to $39 for all reasons previously outlined here
Forward 40 x FY21 e P/E which is in line with historical premiums to market

[alokdhir]

Can someone explain how this index rebalancing works ...as today FPH big up on huge volumes . Not all heavy weights were up though SPK , RYM and FBU were down too on big volumes .

Just want to understand why some stocks up while some down on this rebalancing day and what it means going forward for up stocks and down stock ...trying to make sense of how and why of these days .

[iceman]

Deloitte Top 200: FPH named company of the year 2020

A great write up on it behind paywall at NZ Herald on 3 December. For those that can read it, it is here https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/deloitte-top-200-fisher-paykel-healthcare-named-company-of-the-year/4OHHWHKXR7MNVUONIXXMZWW3EE/

[winner69]

Deloitte Top 200: FPH named company of the year 2020

A great write up on it behind paywall at NZ Herald on 3 December. For those that can read it, it is here https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/deloitte-top-200-fisher-paykel-healthcare-named-company-of-the-year/4OHHWHKXR7MNVUONIXXMZWW3EE/

Well done FPH and it’s CEO as well

Iceman - a great example of what a successful demerger can do.

[iceman]

Well done FPH and it’s CEO as well

Iceman - a great example of what a successful demerger can do.

Haha. I had shares in both after the demerger way back then and happily accepted Haier's offer for Appliances a bit later. I think it is fair to say most holders did not appreciate fully what we had with FPH. So yes you are right, it was as successful one. But quite different to the other one we are thinking of :-)

[winner69]

Haha. I had shares in both after the demerger way back then and happily accepted Haier's offer for Appliances a bit later. I think it is fair to say most holders did not appreciate fully what we had with FPH. So yes you are right, it was as successful one. But quite different to the other one we are thinking of :-)

Pre demerger the market was valuing Healthcare at hardly anything much to the frustration of the Board / investors ...set free Health was a star ...and Appliances just plodded on as usual.

If Heartland think Motor is worth heaps more than bank multiples a demerger makes sense


When demerged many hocked off their Healthcare shares pretty quickly ...I remember picking up a bundle and couldn’t believe it when the share price doubled in a few weeks when the market woke up to what a standalone Healthcare was all about.

[Leftfield]

12131

Not often we see FPH trading below 30 and 90 day MA.

Maybe it was a bit of an over reaction to the Covid vaccine news last week but I've now added FPH to my portfolio.

FWIW I expect hospital budgets are going to be boosted for several more years and FPH will continue to benefit.

[iceman]

12131

Not often we see FPH trading below 30 and 90 day MA.

Maybe it was a bit of an over reaction to the Covid vaccine news last week but I've now added FPH to my portfolio.

FWIW I expect hospital budgets are going to be boosted for several more years and FPH will continue to benefit.

That's my view too, a bit of an over reaction to the great COVID news, so I topped up a bit on Friday. With the huge growth in device sales this year and an indication from management a couple of weeks ago that growth in device sales had further accelerated in the December quarter, we are in for ongoing bumper sales in consumables to service and maintain all these new devices. I see nothing but further growth on the horizon with this one. Even post COVID I think health authorities around the World will be taking a hard look at how ill prepared they generally were for this pandemic and will be better preparing hospitals with equipment to deal with future outbreaks. We are well positioned.

[Leftfield]

That's my view too, a bit of an over reaction to the great COVID news, so I topped up a bit on Friday. With the huge growth in device sales this year and an indication from management a couple of weeks ago that growth in device sales had further accelerated in the December quarter, we are in for ongoing bumper sales in consumables to service and maintain all these new devices. I see nothing but further growth on the horizon with this one. Even post COVID I think health authorities around the World will be taking a hard look at how ill prepared they generally were for this pandemic and will be better preparing hospitals with equipment to deal with future outbreaks. We are well positioned.

Great minds think alike and I'm happy to be in such esteemed company.

I have always wanted a 'safe haven' stock like this in my long term hold portfolio and it's never to late to start collecting IMHO. Always good to be 'well positioned'.

[kiora]

Is it a double bottom or double top?
Either way I agree with you both
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/double-top-and-bottom.asp

[Jaa]

Its not just the COVID vaccine though, the NZD has gone through the roof. FPH has always been sensitive to such movements. Will be a lot more now, but think it was like $4m of profit per 1 cent change in the USD/NZD.

[iceman]

Its not just the COVID vaccine though, the NZD has gone through the roof. FPH has always been sensitive to such movements. Will be a lot more now, but think it was like $4m of profit per 1 cent change in the USD/NZD.

That is absolutely true but we should not forget that much of their costs are also in currencies other than NZ, nearly all of their manufacturing costs for example. It could also be argued that FPH is a buy when the NZ$ is strong, not least if a long time NZ$ bull Roger J Kerr is right when he says the Kiwi has run too far https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/108286/long-time-kiwi-dollar-bull-roger-j-kerr-concludes-our-currency-has-now-overcooked

But I am not going to try to guess the FX markets and will continue with my buy and hold strategy on this one while the future appears as good as it does to me at the moment.

[Jaa]

That is absolutely true but we should not forget that much of their costs are also in currencies other than NZ, nearly all of their manufacturing costs for example. It could also be argued that FPH is a buy when the NZ$ is strong, not least if a long time NZ$ bull Roger J Kerr is right when he says the Kiwi has run too far https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/108286/long-time-kiwi-dollar-bull-roger-j-kerr-concludes-our-currency-has-now-overcooked

But I am not going to try to guess the FX markets and will continue with my buy and hold strategy on this one while the future appears as good as it does to me at the moment.

Agree the NZD seems overcooked to me too but it has momentum so will probably continue until something changes.

FPH share price driven mostly by overseas investors these days and its a good time for them to sell and take profits with the NZD so high. So expect it to go a bit lower and test $30 once the FDA approves the two vaccines. That's when I plan to top up but then I may just be being greedy!

[sb9]

Agree the NZD seems overcooked to me too but it has momentum so will probably continue until something changes.

FPH share price driven mostly by overseas investors these days and its a good time for them to sell and take profits with the NZD so high. So expect it to go a bit lower and test $30 once the FDA approves the two vaccines. That's when I plan to top up but then I may just be being greedy!

Yes, the possibility of testing $30 looks like a decent prospect from hereon. And around that level I'd be keen to add this into long term portfolio.

[Leftfield]

I'll confess picking a bottom on any share is not my greatest talent (some say it's a nasty habit).... whatever.... for me it's all about DCA and I prefer to wait and buy in once an uptrend is underway (again.)

So I view my recent FPH purchase as a belated start, with the hope that in a 5 years time whether my DCA is $29, $30 or $31 won't matter too much.

[Louloubell]

I'm also using this time to buy in again. I see the recent drop in price as an over reaction to the news of vaccines ready for roll out.

Am determined not to sell again and put in the bottom drawer.

[Leftfield]

I'm also using this time to buy in again. I see the recent drop in price as an over reaction to the news of vaccines ready for roll out......Am determined not to sell again and put in the bottom drawer.

Well done... I like your long term thinking. Nice to see today's SP move up 40c as I write. A bit early to say the trend is changing, but nice to be 'well positioned.'

[alokdhir]

As per Stats NZ ....FPH November sales appox 200 million with 49 million as NP as per 24.5 % NP margin reported last HY

Its still growing month on month ...Nov sales are highest on record 8% above October

If this keeps going ( most likely keeping in view current world covid situation ) FPH may end up doing 2 Billion sales with 0.5 Billion NP ie 0.86 EPS !!!

[Leftfield]

12131

Not often we see FPH trading below 30 and 90 day MA.

Maybe it was a bit of an over reaction to the Covid vaccine news last week but I've now added FPH to my portfolio.

FWIW I expect hospital budgets are going to be boosted for several more years and FPH will continue to benefit.


Feeling a lot better about adding this to my portfolio in early Dec.
Call me a late starter, but nice to be ahead and have a foothold in FPH. Onwards and upwards.

[kiora]

"Consequently, we have no basis on which
to provide guidance for the full 2021 financial year, so we are providing a guide to full-year results
based on the following assumptions:
 Hospital hardware sales return to normal levels from January 2021.
 The use of our hospital hardware returns down to approximately normal rates for the second
half of the financial year.
 OSA diagnosis rates are reduced for the second half of the financial year, due to limited
access to customers.
 Freight costs remain elevated, resulting in a reduction in gross margin of approximately
200 bps in constant currency for the full financial year compared to the prior financial year.
Based on these assumptions, and reflecting sustained stronger Hospital hardware sales to date, full
year operating revenue would be approximately $1.72 billion, and net profit after tax would be
approximately $400 million to $415 million. This guide is based on exchange rates of NZD:USD 0.69
and NZD:EUR 0.58."
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/fph.nzx-363846/

So slow down in Covid cases didn't happen
Quite the reverse.
Will they hit $NZ 500 net profit?
Could be stretching it but then again could be close?

[iceman]

I'm with you kiora that the sales are likely to exceed they're forecasts, as they hospital hardware remaining at very high levels. On the negative side however is the stronger NZD than they had in their assumptions but we can not forget that much of their costs are also in FX. So I'm hoping they'll exceed their profit guidance by 10% or so.

[alokdhir]

I'm with you kiora that the sales are likely to exceed they're forecasts, as they hospital hardware remaining at very high levels. On the negative side however is the stronger NZD than they had in their assumptions but we can not forget that much of their costs are also in FX. So I'm hoping they'll exceed their profit guidance by 10% or so.

Most likely they will be upgrading their old guide for FY 21 by mid feb. Question is by ho much ....as they are doing around 200 mil per month revenue in last 3 months as per exports data from Stats NZ ...so IMHO they will end up doing 2.1 billion revenue with 485-500 mil NP for full year results

But upgrade will be to most likely 1.85 - 1.90 revenue and 450-460 mil NP

More important is that positive exposure they got out this Covid situation will be immensely helpful for further growth in years ahead

Most likely it will change the company trajectory of faster growth in years ahead

Most bullish are Fisher Funds and Craigs while many are calling it underperform post Covid

One can decide which camp will be the right one to be in . For me I am firmly with FPH for next 5 years or more ...I see it reaching $ 100 in 5 years :t_up:

[Leftfield]

Most likely they will be upgrading their old guide for FY 21 by mid feb. Question is by ho much ....as they are doing around 200 mil per month revenue in last 3 months as per exports data from Stats NZ ...so IMHO they will end up doing 2.1 billion revenue with 485-500 mil NP for full year results

But upgrade will be to most likely 1.85 - 1.90 revenue and 450-460 mil NP

More important is that positive exposure they got out this Covid situation will be immensely helpful for further growth in years ahead

Most likely it will change the company trajectory of faster growth in years ahead

Most bullish are Fisher Funds and Craigs while many are calling it underperform post Covid

One can decide which camp will be the right one to be in . For me I am firmly with FPH for next 5 years or more ...I see it reaching $ 100 in 5 years :t_up:

Great post Alokdhir.

What is often not appreciated is that there will be huge tail winds for FPH in the next 2 - 5 years as hospital budgets throughout the world get priority spending treatment to remedy the discrepancies that Covid has highlighted.

A SP of $50 in 2 years is not unreasonable and your $100 in 5 years is quite possible.

[iceman]

Great post Alokdhir.

What is often not appreciated is that there will be huge tail winds for FPH in the next 2 - 5 years as hospital budgets throughout the world get priority spending treatment to remedy the discrepancies that Covid has highlighted.

A SP of $50 in 2 years is not unreasonable and your $100 in 5 years is quite possible.

Agreed and then we are also going to see the increased hardware sales due to COVID as well as the next few years hospital spending increases you mention, lead to long term growth in consumables to service all that hardware. It is important to note that in FY 20 sales to hospitals (homecare was nearly identical) were 14% hardware and 86% consumables. Gives us an idea of the size of the potential pool for consumables sales in the near-medium term future.

[alokdhir]

Agreed and then we are also going to see the increased hardware sales due to COVID as well as the next few years hospital spending increases you mention, lead to long term growth in consumables to service all that hardware. It is important to note that in FY 20 sales to hospitals (homecare was nearly identical) were 14% hardware and 86% consumables. Gives us an idea of the size of the potential pool for consumables sales in the near-medium term future.

Also to highlight here another darker truth of post Covid symptoms ....Many many doctors have reported partial long term damages to lung tissues resulting recovered patients needing home ventilation support and other respiratory help at home for 12-36 months if not permanently .

I think after Covid fully or partially gone then their Homecare business will take of including OSA part .

Overall I am quite bullish on FPH and it has superb management also . Not easy to ramp up production so much and so fast in such a short time :t_up:

[alokdhir]

Great post Alokdhir.

What is often not appreciated is that there will be huge tail winds for FPH in the next 2 - 5 years as hospital budgets throughout the world get priority spending treatment to remedy the discrepancies that Covid has highlighted.

A SP of $50 in 2 years is not unreasonable and your $100 in 5 years is quite possible.

Thanks buddy for your appreciation and fully agree with your thoughts on the subject ...It has been put on the back burner by many after vaccine news but IMHO it has a potential to surprise on upside...2 year target of $ 55 possible .

[Louloubell]

Am surprised with the high level of fluctuations, resembling an IT company

[Old mate]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976518046/f-p-healthcare-pushes-share-market-higher.html

[Leftfield]

Am surprised with the high level of fluctuations, resembling an IT company

All part of the cunning plan. Maybe today was a signal that others are beginning to see further potential in FPH (on reasonable volumes.) Onwards and upwards.

[alokdhir]

After long FPH has moved above 50day SMA ...Hopefully it will stay over it now as market is also sensing which we talked about here ...that a earnings upgrade is due mid Feb .

But Jarden's analysts gave it target of 33.55 as per market summary on GOOD RETURNS ...maybe its AUD and not NZD .

Lets hope it continues its march upwards as it has failed many times before in this area of SP

[iceman]

Am surprised with the high level of fluctuations, resembling an IT company

Well FPH sort of is a technology company to quite a significant degree. Huge amounts of money spent on R&D and patent work

[alokdhir]

ResMed's quarterly results are coming on 28th ...

If our companies also start providing quarterly results then tracking them and also investing in them will become more informed . Also it will remove lumpiness in SP movements also ...which is so the case with FPH as it moves only on or around results data or earnings updates

[winner69]

ResMed's quarterly results are coming on 28th ...

If our companies also start providing quarterly results then tracking them and also investing in them will become more informed . Also it will remove lumpiness in SP movements also ...which is so the case with FPH as it moves only on or around results data or earnings updates

You sort of saying that every company should have a Dashboard that is updated with key KPIs (revenues etc etc) say once a month ....and then punters will be even more informed?

I’m sure that would increase the occurrence ‘lumpiness’ in share prices

[winner69]

Good piece ...free to read ...holds FPH as a great company and why others aren’t

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/opinion/the-old-boys-network-is-holding-nz-back

[alokdhir]

You sort of saying that every company should have a Dashboard that is updated with key KPIs (revenues etc etc) say once a month ....and then punters will be even more informed?

I’m sure that would increase the occurrence ‘lumpiness’ in share prices

I am saying like in US ...companies should report quarterly results and not just six monthly .

If you see the pattern of SP movement of FPH ...it peaks after it results in about 2-4 weeks then slowly drifting down for next 3 months then starts to wake up around 4 weeks before next results due . Its maybe interest fatigue or just that it goes to back burner for that while as people or traders who keep the stocks alive with trading and provide liquidity move to something more in news . Also regular results from company will keep analysts on their toes as their forecasts will get matched with actual results more often .

In nutshell quarterly results from companies will make market's more vibrant and true ( not much time between results to play the con game ...lol )

NZX rules stipulate that a company need bring trading update immediately upon knowing more then 5 % variance to previous guide . ATM brought that on 18th Dec , less then 2 weeks away from half year closing and till then they kept insisting all good . Now FPH will exceed its full year guide of 1.72B by Jan end with 2 months still to go ...lets c when they bring that update ? If it was quarterly results then people would have been wiser sooner in both cases ...one on downside and other on upside so less chance of deception

[macduffy]

A bit of a two - edged sword. The main argument against quarterly reporting is that it tends to focus management on short term results to the detriment of long term planning and execution. Maybe.

[winner69]

A bit of a two - edged sword. The main argument against quarterly reporting is that it tends to focus management on short term results to the detriment of long term planning and execution. Maybe.

Agree macduffy

Got to beat the quarterly target no matter what and as you say can take focus off the long term ....generally to the detriment to shareholder returns.

[kiora]

You sort of saying that every company should have a Dashboard that is updated with key KPIs (revenues etc etc) say once a month ....and then punters will be even more informed?

I’m sure that would increase the occurrence ‘lumpiness’ in share prices

Most companies would/should be doing monthly KPI anyway +/- if its reported to public

[kiora]

Good piece ...free to read ...holds FPH as a great company and why others aren’t

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/opinion/the-old-boys-network-is-holding-nz-back

Great article there winner.100%
Boards too focused on governance, protecting their ar .....s rather than knowing what drives their business

[iceman]

As expected, we have now had a profit upgrade in this very uncertain World. Operating revenue for the 9 months ended 31 December up a tiny 73% on the same period
in 2019:-)


FPH
22/01/2021 09:27
GENERAL
NOT PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 0927 HRS Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited

GENERAL: FPH: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare provides FY21 trading update

News Release
STOCK EXCHANGE LISTINGS: NEW ZEALAND (FPH), AUSTRALIA (FPH)

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare provides FY21 trading update

Auckland, New Zealand, 22 January 2021 - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Corporation Limited today provided an update on its trading activities for
the nine months ended 31 December 2020.

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Lewis Gradon said, "In many
parts of the world, we have continued to see an influx of COVID-19 patients
requiring hospitalisation for respiratory treatment. Healthcare professionals
are dealing with pressures unlike anything they have faced before. Our
thoughts are with them, the patients under their care, and the families of
those who are impacted at this challenging time."
"Given the elevated hospitalisation rates for COVID-19, our hospital hardware
sales have continued to be very strong, as has the use of our hospital
hardware."
Operating revenue for the nine months ended 31 December 2020 was up 73% in
constant currency compared to the prior comparable period.
In the Hospital product group, which includes products used in acute and
chronic respiratory care and surgery, operating revenue grew 113% over the
first nine months of the previous financial year in constant currency. Over
this same period, Hospital hardware grew 446% and hospital consumables grew
54%, both in constant currency.
In the Homecare product group, which includes products used in the treatment
of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and respiratory support in the home,
operating revenue grew 6% over the nine months to 31 December 2020 in
constant currency.
Remainder of 2021 financial year
"Given the significant uncertainties associated with the course of COVID-19,
the effectiveness or adoption of preventative measures, the progress of
vaccines and their outcomes and the impact on future hospitalisation rates,
we have no basis on which to provide formal guidance to results for the full
2021 financial year.
There is significant variability on a month-to-month basis for both our
Hospital hardware and consumables revenue. The revenue assumptions provided
on 25 November for Hospital hardware sales and usage for FY2021 are now
outdated. The company currently expects revenue and net profit after tax for
the 2021 financial year to be higher than implied by those previous
assumptions. This nine month trading update includes the following
observations:
o Hospital hardware sales and usage continue to generally track local
hospitalisation surges in countries around the world;
o the volume of air freight continues to be higher than normal and freight
costs remain elevated;
o in Homecare, OSA diagnosis rates continue to be reduced, offset by strong
growth in our products used for nasal high flow therapy in the home; and
o the company continues to progress the acceleration of investment in
manufacturing capacity.
I want to take this opportunity once again to thank the people of Fisher &
Paykel Healthcare, who continue to work with such dedication to ensure we can
supply products that are helping patients around the world," Gradon
concluded.

About Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is a leading designer, manufacturer and marketer
of products and systems for use in respiratory care, acute care, surgery and
the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea. The company's products are sold in
over 120 countries worldwide. For more information about the company, visit
our website www.fphcare.com.

Ends

Media & Investor Contacts:

Karen Knott
Senior Communications Manager
karen.knott@fphcare.co.nz
+64 (0) 21 713 911

[Rawz]

Quality FPH products no doubt getting exposure to healthcare facilities around the world that they haven't been sold into previously. Tailwinds from this will be felt for years to come.

Glad I sold down my HGH position and moved half to FPH earlier this week. Purely on gut feel that Healthcare socks were the place to be again. Now just need EBOS to do the same.

[Leftfield]

Woohoo so glad I started a collection of FPH shares.

Rather wordy but I particularly liked this..... "In the Hospital product group, which includes products used in acute and chronic respiratory care and surgery, operating revenue grew 113% over the
first nine months of the previous financial year in constant currency. Over
this same period, Hospital hardware grew 446% and hospital consumables grew
54%, both in constant currency."

Onwards and upwards! Well done holders.

[iceman]

Woohoo so glad I started a collection of FPH shares.

Rather wordy but I particularly liked this..... "In the Hospital product group, which includes products used in acute and chronic respiratory care and surgery, operating revenue grew 113% over the
first nine months of the previous financial year in constant currency. Over
this same period, Hospital hardware grew 446% and hospital consumables grew
54%, both in constant currency."

Onwards and upwards! Well done holders.

Hospital consumables will see a huge growth for years to come thanks to all the very strong hardware sales and the brand awareness in hospitals around the World would have grown exponentially.