FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[alokdhir]

As mentioned by me many times that trading update is due any day ...They provided information to enlighten the market ...actually it was well known but still needed prodding from company ...lol

Surprising they listed their announcement as NON PRICE SENSITIVE ...seems very price sensitive as stock up 10 % ...hehe

They will come with real one with numbers in mid march I suppose when they have good idea of 11 months sales ...though they know its going to be better then most analysts expectation ...mine are 2.1B revenue ...0.5B NP ...lets c they can beat me ....Next year guide is more important ...Knowing how conservative they are ...it can be 1.6B and 0.45B ....That will rerate the stock to big buy with 52 weeks target of $ 45-48 !! :t_up:

[Leftfield]

Topped up a few more on today's news.... now 10% of my portfolio...... thanks for your confirmation of my LT strategy alokdhir!!

[alokdhir]

Topped up a few more on today's news.... now 10% of my portfolio...... thanks for your confirmation of my LT strategy alokdhir!!

U r a good judge of blue chip shares ...U bought in at great levels ...

For me this is the bluest chip of NZX ...I call it Apple of NZ and now its a mature blue chip stock which attracts institutional long term investors like pension funds

FPH and MFT buy and forget ...your grandchildren will be thankful for life ..:p

[MarineSalvage]

Pretty happy holder here... quality long term hold for kids and I

[Waltzing]

what a stock... what a company.. someone get Kate Perry to sing it up there and light fire works.

we make a load on this stock back in QE.

To use the kiwi aus vernacular....

GO You Good Thing...

[Leftfield]

Thanks alokdhir...... about time I had some more long term respectability in my portfolio.

Good fortune with your share collection also.

[alokdhir]

Thanks alokdhir...... about time I had some more long term respectability in my portfolio.

Good fortune with your share collection also.

Thanks buddy ...Me only want to invest long term so need only blue chips ...buy and forget types ...so far found only FPH / MFT / KFL and NZG

Maybe your can suggest some more for our benefit

[Leftfield]

Thanks buddy ...Me only want to invest long term so need only blue chips ...buy and forget types ...so far found only FPH / MFT / KFL and NZG
Maybe your can suggest some more for our benefit

Well done on your portfolio.

My strategy is different and not biased to dividends or big caps.

I've been more biased to small caps as they transition to becoming big caps.

ATM still 30% of my portfolio (was 70% for about 5 yrs,) now free-held, and even at current 'lows' I'm still several thousands of % up. When the TA starts its uptrend again, I suspect ATM will be a great LT addition to many portfolios, including yours.

Otherwise I'm overweight (and nicely in profit) in small caps IKE, PEB, PX1, PEB etc.

As I say, FPH brings me some respectability!

[alokdhir]

Well done on your portfolio.

My strategy is different and not biased to dividends or big caps.

I've been more biased to small caps as they transition to becoming big caps.




ATM still 30% of my portfolio (was 70% for about 5 yrs,) now free-held, and even at current 'lows' I'm still several thousands of % up. When the TA starts its uptrend again, I suspect ATM will be a great LT addition to many portfolios, including yours.

Otherwise I'm overweight (and nicely in profit) in small caps IKE, PEB, PX1, PEB etc.

As I say, FPH brings me some respectability!

Ok ...U r in nascent blue chip possibility stocks ...even if u get 2/5 right its big returns ...I understand ...

As me retired and seek more stability and income so I need stay in less risky and stable stocks though I sacrifice big returns ...But last year showed me that big returns possible with blue chips also ...MFT up 52% ...FPH 60% ...KFL 40% ...thats bonus returns ...I am happy with 15% overall

Now with that kind of returns done ...maybe small caps will do better IMHO ....Yes agree ATM can be dark horse of the year with some luck :t_up:

PS : I have ATM thru KFL and its too jumpy stock for my retired mind to handle ...Need sleep well ...not easy at my age :D

[Rawz]

Thanks buddy ...Me only want to invest long term so need only blue chips ...buy and forget types ...so far found only FPH / MFT / KFL and NZG

Maybe your can suggest some more for our benefit

EBO would slot in there nicely.
Unpopular opinion but RBD have years of store refurbishments + expansion ahead of them in USA which is a rinse and repeat of what they did in NZ/AUS.

[alokdhir]

EBO would slot in there nicely.
Unpopular opinion but RBD have years of store refurbishments + expansion ahead of them in USA which is a rinse and repeat of what they did in NZ/AUS.

Thanks buddy ....EBO surely looks ripe for a big move and a steady healthcare stock . RBD I will pass on as I dont like KFC lol

[alokdhir]

Also I think after waking the market up to its near term and longer term prospects ....FPH after a long side ways movement since mid Nov ...maybe ripe for MFT kind of move , only hiccup maybe its very well owned institutional stock based in Australia unlike MFT .

Still I think it should do well after breaking out from its 32-34 range after 3 months .

[Rawz]

.. RBD I will pass on as I dont like KFC lol

LOL and possibly my love for the colonel's finest helped tip my decision to investment in them. That is the beautiful thing about investing. We all have our own ways :)

[Roskat]

PEB ? interested in your thoughts. Cheers

[Cricketfan]

PEB ? interested in your thoughts. Cheers

If only it had its own thread...

[Snow Leopard]

Wow, pretty significant shift in price. Maybe it will get out of the doldrums and resume the uptrend.

I sometimes wish I had bought these when I was younger, but I was young and did not listen.

https://www.zooborns.com/.a/6a010535647bf3970b01b8d2a3086d970c-800wi

Kitai - the Snow Leopard Cub (https://www.zooborns.com/zooborns/2017/08/meet-kitai-the-endangered-snow-leopard-cub.html)

[alokdhir]

in Homecare, OSA diagnosis rates continue to be reduced, offset by strong
growth in our products used for nasal high flow therapy in the home; and
o the company continues to progress the acceleration of investment in
manufacturing capacity.

OSA will come back after covid under control ...But home NHF therapy will keep growing big as thats the after effect of covid infection

All over doctors are predicting deep tissue scars of lungs for 36 months after covid infection requiring home support for ventilation by home NHF devices .

Home care will take over after hospital care diminishes ...as one doctor put it after Covid earthquake comes pulmonary support requirement tsunami !!

So IMHO this Covid pandemic will have huge positive long term effects on FPH future

[Cricketfan]

Wow, pretty significant shift in price. Maybe it will get out of the doldrums and resume the uptrend.


I wish all my other stocks would get in the doldrums if that means a 52 week increase of over 30%!

[Waltzing]

If the Biden cabinet is approved they are going to ramp up what they did after the GFC into after burner according to the interviews. Which means they arnt expecting a 10 year employment recovery.

This time they are going to try to do that inside 5 or less.

Which means either they go QE infinity and or put some of the banking deposits into US treasuries.

Either way the US dollars isnt going anywhere for the while and the current PE has been growth into space for a while now..

Break outs are going to have to come into the realms of gravity at some point.

[Leftfield]

Ok ...U r in nascent blue chip possibility stocks ...even if u get 2/5 right its big returns ...I understand ...

As me retired and seek more stability and income so I need stay in less risky and stable stocks though I sacrifice big returns ..

You get it, its all about risk/rewards. FWIW I'm retired too and greatly enjoy my new hobby of 'professional investor'.!! lol. Now you can see why I am happy to put a bit more safety and respectability into my portfolio.


PEB ? interested in your thoughts. Cheers

Best you check the PEB thread. Poster Pierre sums up my thinking (and my holding) v well.


If the Biden cabinet is approved they are going to ramp up what they did after the GFC into after burner according to the interviews. Which means they arnt expecting a 10 year employment recovery.....

Don't forget that the Democrats are much more likely to boost/encourage/facilitate 'heath' spending in the US. I suspect their revised Pandemic preparedness budget alone will be HUGE. FPH 'well positioned.'

That's enough posting for me today. Best wishes all!

[kiora]

Wow, pretty significant shift in price. Maybe it will get out of the doldrums and resume the uptrend.

I sometimes wish I had bought these when I was younger, but I was young and did not listen.

https://www.zooborns.com/.a/6a010535647bf3970b01b8d2a3086d970c-800wi

Kitai - the Snow Leopard Cub (https://www.zooborns.com/zooborns/2017/08/meet-kitai-the-endangered-snow-leopard-cub.html)
First time I have heard Snow Leopards get Distemper !
I thought only dogs get that?

[Snow Leopard]

I wish all my other stocks would get in the doldrums if that means a 52 week increase of over 30%!

It has been a year of two halves for FPH:
22-Jan-20 >> 22-Jul-20 +59.0% :)
22-Jul-20 >> 22-Jan-21 -2.5% :(

But it is not a buy because:

(All together now on the count of three)

1...
2...
3...

It is over-priced!

Have a good weekend.

[Snow Leopard]

First time I have heard Snow Leopards get Distemper !
I thought only dogs get that?

Cats have their own special kind:

Feline Panleukopenia Virus (https://www.totallyvets.co.nz/cat-vaccinations-what-diseases-do-they-help-prevent.html)

[Rawz]

It has been a year of two halves for FPH:
22-Jan-20 >> 22-Jul-20 +59.0% :)
22-Jul-20 >> 22-Jan-21 -2.5% :(

But it is not a buy because:

(All together now on the count of three)

1...
2...
3...

It is over-priced!

Have a good weekend.

Still can run a bit more IMO. Last year hit P/E in the low 60s on the hype and now we have had an upgrade.
Current P/E 51.5.

$41+ brings us back to a 60 P/E (on historical eps)

What's an appropriate P/E for FPH? I haven't a clue.

[alokdhir]

Still can run a bit more IMO. Last year hit P/E in the low 60s on the hype and now we have had an upgrade.
Current P/E 51.5.

$41+ brings us back to a 60 P/E (on historical eps)

What's an appropriate P/E for FPH? I haven't a clue.

World over healthcare stocks trade around 45-50 historic P/E ...its at present at 51 but if u account its coming results of 500 mil NP which gives it eps of 0.87 which translates to p/e of 40 only ....but as market thinks its just one off Covid boost so it is reluctant to rerate it to 40+ levels of SP .

But now more and more analysts are realising that Covid benefit to FPH is not one off but long term and it will help the company do better growth ahead so it will be ready to take it higher ...near future 40-43 levels possible like u said

Jarden has 478 mil NP forecast for FY21 . Also company has just made a statement that its doing well , they have not yet officially upgraded the guidance , which IMO will come when it becomes requirement as per NZX rule , mid Feb , it will include real numbers

[Leftfield]

After a good sleep and some reflection I must say there are aspects of yesterdays FPH trading update that strike me as unusual.

1.) The announcement was not flagged as SP 'sensitive'.
2.) The announcement boasted some healthy progress, eg Operating revenue for the nine months ended 31 December 2020 up 73%.
Hospital product group, operating revenue up 113%. Hospital hardware up 446% and hospital consumables up
54%,
3.) Yet despite 9 months trading, FPH then says, "we have no basis on which to provide formal guidance to results for the full 2021 financial year."

Crikey, I would have thought the key role of Managers/Directors is to provide guidance, yet this team seem to be walking away from this responsibility?

Strange.

[Waltzing]

was a buy back in april or somewhere abouts..

Price Sensitive yes, but with the PE where it is it may have little effect... Its the bottom line that counts and increase in DIV;s that drive prices..

absolutely breath taking statement but it may be they are worried about US dollar.

[winner69]

After a good sleep and some reflection I must say there are aspects of yesterdays FPH trading update that strike me as unusual.

1.) The announcement was not flagged as SP 'sensitive'.
2.) The announcement boasted some healthy progress, eg Operating revenue for the nine months ended 31 December 2020 up 73%.
Hospital product group, operating revenue up 113%. Hospital hardware up 446% and hospital consumables up
54%,
3.) Yet despite 9 months trading, FPH then says, "we have no basis on which to provide formal guidance to results for the full 2021 financial year."

Crikey, I would have thought the key role of Managers/Directors is to provide guidance, yet this team seem to be walking away from this responsibility?

Strange.


Leftie, I don’t think the update was really aimed at the likes of us - rather it was put out as a hint for analysts to get into gear and update their models.

Obviously FY profit going to be heaps more than $400m (what they said in November) and probably a hint to analysts that consensus forecast of $480m is too low

Whatever - I sort of agree with them that with all the variability taking a guess isn’t a good idea.

[Leftfield]

Thanks Winner. Guess you are right, though with 9 months in the bag you would think they could give a reasonably accurate guidance range.

Still, as long as FPH keeps surprising on the upside, us punters should be grateful.

[alokdhir]

Thanks Winner. Guess you are right, though with 9 months in the bag you would think they could give a reasonably accurate guidance range.

Still, as long as FPH keeps surprising on the upside, us punters should be grateful.

I had already pointed this out in my earlier post that this is not classed as price sensitive info as they have not done anything to old guide numbers as yet as its not yet requirement of NZX rules ...though they said very clearly we will be doing much better then earlier told ...how much better will come in mid feb as then it will become requirement to inform the NZX ...5% over last guide when confirmed in writing to company then it needs to inform NZX ASAP . After they book Jan sales it will become more then that and then that updated guidance will come and it will be price sensitive information flagged .
This was as pointed by W69 general market update to get people on the right track .

Again I ponder ATM revised their guide 2 weeks before HY end on 18th Dec and still technically they did nothing wrong when in mid Nov they were claiming all working as per previous guidance . Similarly FPH didn't need to bring this update but they provided . But by mid Feb guidance update will become requirement .
Maybe again in March middle if they remain too conservative in Feb upgrade .

I still will prefer quarterly results but not chasing targets ...quarterly updates maybe

[Leftfield]

Thanks for the added explanation alokdhir. Appreciated.

I agree with your preference for quarterly updates. I like focussed attention on key metrics. AIR does this well.

[winner69]

Disclosure is all about what a 'reasonable'person might consider 'material' and there's screeds written by the NZX as to what reasonable and material might or not mean.

From NZX guidelines

NZX considers that deviations from an issuer’s own guidance:

• of 10% or more will usually be material;
• of between 5% and 10% may be material; and
• below 5% will not usually be material.

So a lot of vagueness eh

FPH last guidance was NPAT of approximately $400 million to $415 million...... so unless they think npat going to be over $455 million no real need to update guidance and tell the market

Then they also have an obligation to consider how they going against market expectations (analyst guesses) - that seems to be $480 million

Maybe they're thinking the number will be within 10% of their guidance (less than $455m) and within 10% of market expectations (say more than $432m). Got both cases covered there.

All I know senior management / directors spend hours debating whether they need to disclose stuff - rules are so vague

[alokdhir]

Disclosure is all about what a 'reasonable'person might consider 'material' and there's screeds written by the NZX as to what reasonable and material might or not mean.

From NZX guidelines

NZX considers that deviations from an issuer’s own guidance:
• of 10% or more will usually be material;
• of between 5% and 10% may be material; and
• below 5% will not usually be material.


So a lot of vagueness eh

FPH last guidance was NPAT of approximately $400 million to $415 million...... so unless they think npat going to be over $455 million no real need to update guidance and tell the market

Then they also have an obligation to consider how they going against market expectations (analyst guesses) - that seems to be $480 million

Maybe they're thinking the number will be within 10% of their guidance (less than $455m) and within 10% of market expectations (say more than $432m). Got both cases covered there.

All I know senior management / directors spend hours debating whether they need to disclose stuff - rules are so vague

Fully agree with u buddy :t_up:

What are your views about how much this last update will help rerate the stock ...like Rawz said it can help it run till $ 41 + ....

I think it has broken out from tight 32-34 range after long so may run to make a new high ie over 37.89 ...but not very sure as many still very skeptical of its future and high multiples

[Rawz]

Their trading update states; "Hospital hardware sales and usage continue to generally track local hospitalisation surges in countries around the world".
Having a look at how the daily new cases of COVID has been tracking:(source:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-cases)

30 April: 89,325
31 May: 111,332
30 June: 179,261
31 July: 295,220
31 Aug: 253,810
30 Sep: 320,601
30 Oct: 577,913
30 Nov: 502,704
31 Dec: 758,305
21 Jan: 670,465

With peak new cases of 842,871 on 8th Jan.

Half year profit was $225m to 30 Sep. During the six months to 30 Sep the daily new COVID cases averaged 208,000 (from above sample). Since 30 Sep the daily new cases averaged 622,000. Significantly higher- almost 3x.

Could they do $500m FY profit if they did $225m for the first 6 months on much lower COVID cases?
$500m NPAT would equate to a P/E today of 40.45. If the market re rates them to a 50 P/E on FY21 earnings of $500m we have a price of $43.38.

For me the best part of the trading update is; "the company continues to progress the acceleration of investment inmanufacturing capacity". The tailwinds from this is going to benefit FPH and it's shareholders for awhile yet as hospitals and governments replace the older units and then stockpile more than they used to.

I bought more at $35.40 on Friday.

[alokdhir]

Their trading update states; "Hospital hardware sales and usage continue to generally track local hospitalisation surges in countries around the world".
Having a look at how the daily new cases of COVID has been tracking:(source:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-cases)

30 April: 89,325
31 May: 111,332
30 June: 179,261
31 July: 295,220
31 Aug: 253,810
30 Sep: 320,601
30 Oct: 577,913
30 Nov: 502,704
31 Dec: 758,305
21 Jan: 670,465

With peak new cases of 842,871 on 8th Jan.

Half year profit was $225m to 30 Sep. During the six months to 30 Sep the daily new COVID cases averaged 208,000 (from above sample). Since 30 Sep the daily new cases averaged 622,000. Significantly higher- almost 3x.

Could they do $500m FY profit if they did $225m for the first 6 months on much lower COVID cases?
$500m NPAT would equate to a P/E today of 40.45. If the market re rates them to a 50 P/E on FY21 earnings of $500m we have a price of $43.38.

For me the best part of the trading update is; "the company continues to progress the acceleration of investment inmanufacturing capacity". The tailwinds from this is going to benefit FPH and it's shareholders for awhile yet as hospitals and governments replace the older units and then stockpile more than they used to.

I bought more at $35.40 on Friday.


I agree with all your hypotheses ...but at present market is not buying its recurrent growth case ...many analysts including at Jarden are thinking this boost is one off and once Covid under control its this extra boost will taper off and it will not see growth in revenues for next 2-3 years ...means will take it 2-3 years to cross FY 21 numbers ...so they call it " UNDERPERFORM " .

I am with u fully ...seems like FPH will need to prove many wrong with actual numbers so every future results are going to be beating expectations :t_up:

Now in this run it may cross previous high of 37.89 and I am so looking forward to it

I also like future expansion plans but I also like strong growth in Homecare Nasal Highflow Devices for personal ventilation needs after discharge from hospitals . This is going to be their next goldmine as its now very clear that almost 10% covid patients get long term damage to lungs needing respiratory support at home on long term basis and FPH already have devices for that in their arsenal .

Covid is going to a long drawn battle with very lasting scars on humanity . Most experts are saying we will get some control over it by year end and maybe most control by next year middle ...FPH will surely benefit from long drawn battle but their products are actually helping many many recover faster and they are doing a great job as a responsible and humane company . FPH is really a great company with heart at the right place . Kiwis should be proud of FPH :t_up:

[Leftfield]

Good posts Rawz and Alokdhir.

As to a modified valuation for FPH..... I'm prepared to let the market decide while we wait more info from FPH.

Sure the high revenue increases are encouraging, however IMO it is v hard to calculate forward NPAT as FPH has indicated it's freight costs and Cap Ex are also climbing. FPH has always been expensive in terms of P/E, my entry at an av hold SP of just $32 is because my guttometer signalled that in the absence of accurate NPAT figures there was an opportunity, also the TA signals were encouraging. Happy to DCA up/down as more info comes available.

Re Covid - my theory is that Covid is not going to go away anytime soon. Indeed as mutations of Covid become more prevalent in UK and Sth Africa etc, I see the Covid world as a new reality for the next 2 -3 yrs. Big Tail winds for FPH.

The stats that stick in my mind (and I'm going by memory - so forgive me if I'm not 100% accurate,) is that it took 9 months for world wide Covid deaths to reach 1 mill. However it only took another 3 - 4 months for global deaths to double to 2 mill.

I also fear world wide Covid deaths are under-reported. ( eg can we believe stats from Russia, Brazil, Sth Africa etc etc??)

As to Brokers forecasts...... I've always tended to ignore them. Brokers often have their own motivations and their recent 'underperform' comments could well be an attempt by them to gain more shares from weak hands and those happy to take profits after holding FPH for years.

Just my thoughts as always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.

[kiora]

"Consequently, we have no basis on which
to provide guidance for the full 2021 financial year, so we are providing a guide to full-year results
based on the following assumptions:
 Hospital hardware sales return to normal levels from January 2021.
 The use of our hospital hardware returns down to approximately normal rates for the second
half of the financial year.
 OSA diagnosis rates are reduced for the second half of the financial year, due to limited
access to customers.
 Freight costs remain elevated, resulting in a reduction in gross margin of approximately
200 bps in constant currency for the full financial year compared to the prior financial year.
Based on these assumptions, and reflecting sustained stronger Hospital hardware sales to date, full
year operating revenue would be approximately $1.72 billion, and net profit after tax would be
approximately $400 million to $415 million. This guide is based on exchange rates of NZD:USD 0.69
and NZD:EUR 0.58."
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/fph.nzx-363846/

So slow down in Covid cases didn't happen
Quite the reverse.
Will they hit $NZ 500 net profit?
Could be stretching it but then again could be close?

Better late than never

Craigs FY NP 21 estimate now $525m,PE Estimate 40
Increased 12 m target price to $40

[Rawz]

Better late than never

Craigs FY NP 21 estimate now $525m,PE Estimate 40
Increased 12 m target price to $40

Nice to see one of the brokers come to the party.
Their P/E estimate doesn't add up to the profit forecast and price target?

Anyway I guess it doesn't matter. Nobody knows where COVID is going, how effective the vaccine will be, how much exposure FPH has got in new markets and what future 'normal' sales would look like in said new markets. Nobody knows what stockpile levels of ventilators governments will build up, what level of home care will be required for those that have suffered covid and recovered. It's all best guess so throw out ya models :p And remember:

- Management have an excellent track record of earnings growth. Trust that they will execute on this opportunity.
- "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price"- WB.

[alokdhir]

Stats NZ released Dec monthly exports figures and guess what ....FPH had another bumper month 215 mil which is 7.5 % higher then Nov figures ..

Last quarter was over 600 mil and quarter on quarter increase of 24 %

Its now clear that as long as Covid is around FPH will keep doing better and better ...it seems production constraints are limiting their revenues at the moment

Big question remains how long it will keep getting this covid boost ...if very senior WHO expert is to be believed including ours at Auckland Uni Medical college then its 2-4 years further but with diminishing numbers .

I think when analysts bring this longer term now becoming common theme for Covid they may give FPH little more multiples and some for its safe category sector in this shaky markets environment . Overall a safe and growing stock with excellent management ...cant get better then that :t_up:

[winner69]

Stats NZ released Dec monthly exports figures and guess what ....FPH had another bumper month 215 mil which is 7.5 % higher then Nov figures ..

Last quarter was over 600 mil and quarter on quarter increase of 24 %

Its now clear that as long as Covid is around FPH will keep doing better and better ...it seems production constraints are limiting their revenues at the moment

Big question remains how long it will keep getting this covid boost ...if very senior WHO expert is to be believed including ours at Auckland Uni Medical college then its 2-4 years further but with diminishing numbers .

I think when analysts bring this longer term now becoming common theme for Covid they may give FPH little more multiples and some for its safe category sector in this shaky markets environment . Overall a safe and growing stock with excellent management ...cant get better then that :t_up:

Assuming you source the Overseas Merchandise Trade data from Stats NZ

As a matter of interest how do you conclude that FPH had $215m of exports?

[winner69]

alokdhir - I've found some data from Stats NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade reports for respiratory equipment exports but not FPH specific

Respiratory equipment exports for December were $182m - up 104% on prior year. I assume others export respiratory equipment (not just FPH)

The 3 months Oct/Nov/Dec exports were $408m - up 112% on pcp

Since March exports are up about 100% - like the big numbers FPH quote themselves

How much of FPH sales are exported from NZ and how much made from Mexico

Still interested if you have more detailed data of these exports.

[alokdhir]

alokdhir - I've found some data from Stats NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade reports for respiratory equipment exports but not FPH specific

Respiratory equipment exports for December were $182m - up 104% on prior year. I assume others export respiratory equipment (not just FPH)

The 3 months Oct/Nov/Dec exports were $408m - up 112% on pcp

Since March exports are up about 100% - like the big numbers FPH quote themselves

How much of FPH sales are exported from NZ and how much made from Mexico

Still interested if you have more detailed data of these exports.

U r on the right track buddy ...My figures are estimations only but they have been coming pretty close to the actuals so far !!

I derived the correlation between NZ stat figures with actual reported numbers from FPH for last 3 years and then estimate FPH numbers after NZ stat figures .

Also note FPH is the only supplier of Chapter 90 exports from NZ but it doesn't matter if u estimating numbers after knowing the correlation between two ie NZ stat figures with FPH reported figures

Mexico is only low tech consumables production and its contribution is about 30-35 Mil per month ...so $ 183 + $ 32 = appox $ 215 Mil for the month

They said 73 % more from previous corresponding 9 months period while it was 87% more for 6 months period ...

Also noted that FPH exports from NZ is rising month on month till last figures of Dec ...Dec being 7.5% higher then Nov ...so the trend is surely still up

As per new data and projections forward ...FY 2.2 B revenue with 520 Mil NP is my best estimate ...Craigs have very similar figures

[Leftfield]

Good posts Winner and Alokdhir, thank you.

[kiora]

Yes good posts there

Lock those figures in then?

[winner69]

NBR Shoeshine had a piece the other day 'F&P Healthcare boosted by pandemic, but can its success continue?'

Good question

This year revenues to be up about 70%, maybe eve more, and profits could double

But I can see that one day after the pandemic is more under control some bright spark will point out to us that sales and earnings growth is slowing and the FPH share price will do an A2

[Rawz]

NBR Shoeshine had a piece the other day 'F&P Healthcare boosted by pandemic, but can its success continue?'

Good question

This year revenues to be up about 70%, maybe eve more, and profits could double

But I can see that one day after the pandemic is more under control some bright spark will point out to us that sales and earnings growth is slowing and the FPH share price will do an A2

That is the million dollar question. It is why the share price has slipped back to the low $33 mark I guess. Everyone is waiting for FPH to provide some guidance to what the next 2-3 years will look like.

[alokdhir]

NBR Shoeshine had a piece the other day 'F&P Healthcare boosted by pandemic, but can its success continue?'

Good question

This year revenues to be up about 70%, maybe eve more, and profits could double

But I can see that one day after the pandemic is more under control some bright spark will point out to us that sales and earnings growth is slowing and the FPH share price will do an A2

That question can be simply answered by seeing FPH's past record pre covid times ...it was growing company then also ...It got Pandemic boost and also got long term Pandemic benefit of positive exposure to many many new doctors knowing about their products and therapies . Nasal High Flow therapy was not very popular with doctors before ...now it has gained very high reputation not only for Covid treatment but all other types of pulmonary diseases . FPH is world leader manufacturer of NHFT devices and consumables .

First of all FPH will get new trajectory of growth based on above two moreover Homecare requirements of many recovered but lung damaged cases as they have devices for that also and its already showing " Strong " growth if one reads last update of company

FPH Covid boost will eventually peter out but original growth of 10% plus 5 % extra due to above points will remain ...so it will come back to 15-20 % growth going forward which is great for this high margin company

ATM have brand strength problem and over dependence on single country for profits ...where as FPH is established world leader in its field and sells in 120 countries

FPH will see higher and higher levels after some sideways movement which its doing now since July last year .

In my mind FPH and ATM totally different case scenario

[winner69]

That is the million dollar question. It is why the share price has slipped back to the low $33 mark I guess. Everyone is waiting for FPH to provide some guidance to what the next 2-3 years will look like.

I doubt they have no idea what the next 2-3 years will look beyond Homecare maintaining steady growth and “Hospital hardware sales and usage continue to generally track local hospitalisation surges in countries around the world”

How many $ this is ..well your guess as good as theirs

[Zaphod]

That question can be simply answered by seeing FPH's past record pre covid times ...it was growing company then also ...It got Pandemic boost and also got long term Pandemic benefit of positive exposure to many many new doctors knowing about their products and therapies . Nasal High Flow therapy was not very popular with doctors before ...now it has gained very high reputation not only for Covid treatment but all other types of pulmonary diseases . FPH is world leader manufacturer of NHFT devices and consumables .


And if it's punished on the market at that time, I shall probably be waiting with cash in hand.

[alokdhir]

And if it's punished on the market at that time, I shall probably be waiting with cash in hand.

All will be thats why I dont see it going below $ 30 ...:t_up:

[Rawz]

That question can be simply answered by seeing FPH's past record pre covid times ...it was growing company then also ...It got Pandemic boost and also got long term Pandemic benefit of positive exposure to many many new doctors knowing about their products and therapies . Nasal High Flow therapy was not very popular with doctors before ...now it has gained very high reputation not only for Covid treatment but all other types of pulmonary diseases . FPH is world leader manufacturer of NHFT devices and consumables .

First of all FPH will get new trajectory of growth based on above two moreover Homecare requirements of many recovered but lung damaged cases as they have devices for that also and its already showing " Strong " growth if one reads last update of company

FPH Covid boost will eventually peter out but original growth of 10% plus 5 % extra due to above points will remain ...so it will come back to 15-20 % growth going forward which is great for this high margin company

ATM have brand strength problem and over dependence on single country for profits ...where as FPH is established world leader in its field and sells in 120 countries

FPH will see higher and higher levels after some sideways movement which its doing now since July last year .

In my mind FPH and ATM totally different case scenario

I personally totally agree with your thoughts. The track record is amazing and I don't see why they wont drive exceptional yoy earnings growth on the back of COVID.

The market doesn't seem to buy it. FPH is a funny stock thou, can easily jump 5% in a day on no news. And similarly drop a decent % on no news. It's like the big boy funds are either in or out. No in-between.

[alokdhir]

I personally totally agree with your thoughts. The track record is amazing and I don't see why they wont drive exceptional yoy earnings growth on the back of COVID.

The market doesn't seem to buy it. FPH is a funny stock thou, can easily jump 5% in a day on no news. And similarly drop a decent % on no news. It's like the big boy funds are either in or out. No in-between.

No need worry ...FPH always does lumpy movements as its not a retail stock ...

In my humble analysis it should cross its previous high of 37.89 in next qtr and will make its yearly high after Nov reporting ...expecting 40-43 year end ...just a long term projections ...much can change if Vaccines have problems or new strains etc etc ...at present market pretty much thinking we will be covid free in this year end ...lets c what actually happen but for me thinking Covid free world by year end is too far fetched ...it took 11 years after vaccine to eradicate small pox

[Old mate]

"at present market pretty much thinking we will be covid free in this year end ..."


Covid will be with us forever.

[alokdhir]

"at present market pretty much thinking we will be covid free in this year end ..."


Covid will be with us forever.

72 % of respondents on Newshub Poll today agree with u ....though I am more optimistic about Covid becoming a non entity in 2-4 years time

[Ggcc]

"at present market pretty much thinking we will be covid free in this year end ..."


Covid will be with us forever.
Covid will never be 100% irradiated. As long as there are anti vaccinators, or people refusing to take the current vaccine, Covid will come and go. We need to have a vaccine that the majority of people trust. I will take this vaccine if it is recommended to me by my doctor and hope loads of others do as well.

[winner69]

FPH Covid boost will eventually peter out but original growth of 10% plus 5 % extra due to above points will remain ...so it will come back to 15-20 % growth going forward which is great for this high margin company

ATM have brand strength problem and over dependence on single country for profits ...where as FPH is established world leader in its field and sells in 120 countries

FPH will see higher and higher levels after some sideways movement which its doing now since July last year .

In my mind FPH and ATM totally different case scenario

What I was trying to say that one day when covid boost stops FPH will possibly record a period where growth goes negative or declines significantly v pcp

My mention of A2 is that A2 is a great example of what happens when a high growth company reports dramatically slower growth (even for quite legitimate reasons) .....its share price collapses to more realistic valuation multiples

[alokdhir]

What I was trying to say that one day when covid boost stops FPH will possibly record a period where growth goes negative or declines significantly v pcp

My mention of A2 is that A2 is a great example of what happens when a high growth company reports dramatically slower growth (even for quite legitimate reasons) .....its share price collapses to more realistic valuation multiples

As U are well aware that SP of any stock is based on market perception of its future prospects ...so in my humble opinion that has been already accounted for in the FPH SP ...remember the day vaccine news come FPH was down 12% and that was mid Nov ...till now its moving sideways only and doing its correction time . All analysts have already forecast 20% reduction in FY 22 profits over FY 21 . As this is a already known fact and market has reacted to it so what happened to ATM on its sudden downgrades will not happen to FPH

FPH is increasing its sales by installing new hardware in new hospitals on strong growth for them due to Covid but mainly that now doctors see the importance of Non Invasive Ventilation and its benefits which was not the case before ...this change of doctor's mindset is a long term positive .

Moreover FPH 2019 full year results states that " 86% of the company’s revenue was generated from recurring items, such as consumables and accessories. "

This is the first time they are having big boost to their hardware sales due to Covid and full acceptance of their NHFT devices by doctors worldwide ...now long tail of Covid and recurring items of these installed hardwares will not let sales drop too much for too long

New area of growth has also opened up for them due to covid ...thats Homecare NHFT devices and after this pandemic that will keep sales buoyant for many years to come

On the whole I understand your point but that all market participants already know and have discounted into current SP ...IMHO it has potential to surprise market on upside for FY 22 and 23 numbers

[kiora]

I tend to agree with your synopsis alokdhir

[iceman]

I'm also with you on this alokdhir and you've put it well. It is well expected that current sales growth of new equipment will slow past COVID but the consumables sales, which as you point out are a huge part of FPH's revenue, will continue growing to service all the new equipment they have sold.

Another point to make and in my view & should not be underestimated, is the fact that FPH equipment has now been used by thousands of Doctors Worldwide that had not used it before. They've had to use it during a very stressful pandemic crisis and it has no doubt helped them save tens of thousands of lives. In most cases they will have a very good experience already with the equipment.

Post COVID when Governments start reviewing what happened, one of the inevitable conclusions will be that hospitals around the World, even in most "rich" countries, were ill prepared to deal with this pandemic. This could well see significant expenditure increases and equipment upgrade in many health systems around the World, which would no doubt benefit FPH.

[Rawz]

Nice posts alokdhir and iceman. I totally agree and now fear I'm starting to get confirmation bias. I'm tempted to buy more at these levels... Honestly thought it would be at $40 per share now. The trading update was really positive. Is the market asleep?

Guess everyone is just waiting for the FY21 numbers to be confirmed + market outlook commentary.

[alokdhir]

Nice posts alokdhir and iceman. I totally agree and now fear I'm starting to get confirmation bias. I'm tempted to buy more at these levels... Honestly thought it would be at $40 per share now. The trading update was really positive. Is the market asleep?

Guess everyone is just waiting for the FY21 numbers to be confirmed + market outlook commentary.



Thanks buddy for your appreciation . FPH has strong support around 32 and below 200 SMA so Its your call to add more or not ....I have added some more and regularly adding on its way down . I also thought after that trading update it will shift its zone to 34.50 - 37 but seems it need more time ...still in old 32-35 zone !

FPH is a buy and hold share for me . I will be holding it for real long term ...want to see $ 100 on it ..lol

[alokdhir]

Yesterday Johnson & Johnson 's CEO said " Be prepared to take Covid vaccines for several years to come " He was referring to the fact dawning on experts that Covid is not going away but can be managed to keep numbers low like Flu etc .

When will analysts realise or put that development into future price targets of FPH ...Basically one more extra disease on recurrent basis got added to revenue stream of FPH . In my mind that a positive long term recurring beneficial development .

Its possible they have already noticed and may be pushing Buy reports to their High Networth Clients before making it public when its already done most of the move ...IMHO thats how these analysts reports work for general public ...:p

[winner69]

Yesterday Johnson & Johnson 's CEO said " Be prepared to take Covid vaccines for several years to come " He was referring to the fact dawning on experts that Covid is not going away but can be managed to keep numbers low like Flu etc .

When will analysts realise or put that development into future price targets of FPH ...Basically one more extra disease on recurrent basis got added to revenue stream of FPH . In my mind that a positive long term recurring beneficial development .

Its possible they have already noticed and may be pushing Buy reports to their High Networth Clients before making it public when its already done most of the move ...IMHO thats how these analysts reports work for general public ...:p

Who pays the bills?

Join a full service broker and you get their reports

[alokdhir]

Who pays the bills?

Join a full service broker and you get their reports

I rather do my own research ...lol but thanks for your advise :D

[winner69]

I rather do my own research ...lol but thanks for your advise :D

So do I

But our research doesn't seem to mean much to the market ...even though we think we are more switched on than broker analysts ;):t_up::cool:

[alokdhir]

So do I

But our research doesn't seem to mean much to the market ...even though we think we are more switched on than broker analysts ;):t_up::cool:

Our research works ...just need more patience and believe in it ...FPH will show it works :t_up:

[Blue Skies]

I often think you need more of a medical public health background or perspective to look into the future to value FPH rather than an accounting background.
Most young company analysts would have had little appreciation of the medical implications of a respiratory pandemic like Covid & its impact on public health.
There was quite a lag before the sp responded when Covid first became an epidemic, and also an immediate drop in sp when vaccine announced as if that was going to eradicate Covid within months rather than many years & adding millions to the already huge & ever growing numbers of people with chronic respiratory issues.
To my mind its undervalued at moment & will be $40+ later this year & thats being conservative.

[peat]

FPH has strong support around 32

classic bullish pattern
12299

[tuaman]

Still lots of juice left.

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/infectious-diseases-expert-sanjaya-senanayake-says-world-wont-be-protected-from-covid19-for-six-years/news-story/cc05f878145574214cdcdcc5ec162dbe

[alokdhir]

I often think you need more of a medical public health background or perspective to look into the future to value FPH rather than an accounting background.
Most young company analysts would have had little appreciation of the medical implications of a respiratory pandemic like Covid & its impact on public health.
There was quite a lag before the sp responded when Covid first became an epidemic, and also an immediate drop in sp when vaccine announced as if that was going to eradicate Covid within months rather than many years & adding millions to the already huge & ever growing numbers of people with chronic respiratory issues.
To my mind its undervalued at moment & will be $40+ later this year & thats being conservative.

Fully agree with your thoughts ...Today UK Head of research lady Peacock has said that most likely we will be fighting this battle against Covid for next 10 years or more ...

It seems very soon this reality that Covid is not easy to eradicate and its very long battle against it will take over as market theme and then many will come running back to likes of FPH

I have full faith in this stock and also have expectations of it in 40-45 range by year end ...FY 22 and FY 23 are going to be even better . Happy to hold and accumulate near its strong support 31-32 range .

Numbers will prove many wrong ...that will make it even more jumpy after results as markets have generally assigned it Underperform rating so have reduced its over owned position after Vaccine news . See the accumulation going own by not letting it free fall like ATM etc

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2021/02/coronavirus-uk-variant-to-sweep-the-world-mutating-to-evade-vaccines-scientists.html

[winner69]

Shareprice on fire today

Hopefully this time it keep going and get to 37 bucks.

[Ronnie]

I often think you need more of a medical public health background or perspective to look into the future to value FPH rather than an accounting background.
Most young company analysts would have had little appreciation of the medical implications of a respiratory pandemic like Covid & its impact on public health.
There was quite a lag before the sp responded when Covid first became an epidemic, and also an immediate drop in sp when vaccine announced as if that was going to eradicate Covid within months rather than many years & adding millions to the already huge & ever growing numbers of people with chronic respiratory issues.
To my mind its undervalued at moment & will be $40+ later this year & thats being conservative.

What got me investing in FPH was when I discovered in 2016 that the demand for CPAP machines for sleep aponea was far above what had been expected.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/81812959/obesity-aging-drive-huge-growth-in-sleep-disorders

[alokdhir]

Looks like next week we will see a " Price Sensitive " announcement from the company .

[BlackPeter]

Oops - was this big bang just the share price crashing through the MA200?

No announcement - but it appears somebody with lots of shares wants out?

What happened?

[HKG2301]

No need worry ...FPH always does lumpy movements as its not a retail stock ...

In my humble analysis it should cross its previous high of 37.89 in next qtr and will make its yearly high after Nov reporting ...expecting 40-43 year end ...just a long term projections ...much can change if Vaccines have problems or new strains etc etc ...at present market pretty much thinking we will be covid free in this year end ...lets c what actually happen but for me thinking Covid free world by year end is too far fetched ...it took 11 years after vaccine to eradicate small pox

FPH now sitting on $30.50 which is support level from last year. If it breaks through, things might get interesting.

Any updates on your analysis, alokdhir...?

[sb9]

Oops - was this big bang just the share price crashing through the MA200?

No announcement - but it appears somebody with lots of shares wants out?

What happened?

Could well be due to effectiveness of vaccines around the world and lower demand for their respiratory products imo.

[Getty]

That 6 monthly FP Healthcare graph is looking unhealthy.

Could do with a bit of resuscitation, where can we buy something that will do the job?

[mondograss]

Increase in the NZ $ most likely. Always has an impact on their earnings.

[Blue Skies]

Increase in the NZ $ most likely. Always has an impact on their earnings.



Agreed, FPH share price very sensitive to NZD exchange rate & invariably drops when NZD rises & we've just had a sharp rise.

[alokdhir]

FPH now sitting on $30.50 which is support level from last year. If it breaks through, things might get interesting.

Any updates on your analysis, alokdhir...?

Lets c what happens ...Company per se is doing well but sentiment is still negative on it ...it need to show numbers and future guidance to make new supporters ...

I still have full faith in it long term basis so such shenanigans dont worry me ...its become very volatile these days which is also a sign of shaking the tree !!!

Maybe a good time to buy more IMHO ...TA doesn't work very well in FPH as it can move a lot on low volumes

Keep in mind company is going ahead with its plans ( accelerated basis ) to almost double its capacity in next 2-3 years ...

[Blue Skies]

Lets c what happens ...Company per se is doing well but sentiment is still negative on it ...it need to show numbers and future guidance to make new supporters ...

I still have full faith in it long term basis so such shenanigans dont worry me ...its become very volatile these days which is also a sign of shaking the tree !!!

Maybe a good time to buy more IMHO ...TA doesn't work very well in FPH as it can move a lot on low volumes

Keep in mind company is going ahead with its plans ( accelerated basis ) to almost double its capacity in next 2-3 years ...


As a long term investment it's looking pretty darn solid. With ageing populations all around the world, healthcare is projected to easily be one of the fastest growing industries in the world between 2021 & 2029.

[ratkin]

As a long term investment it's looking pretty darn solid. With ageing populations all around the world, healthcare is projected to easily be one of the fastest growing industries in the world between 2021 & 2029.

The only potential problem would be a big ramp up in competition hastened by Covid. Others are going to want a slice of the cake.

[BlackPeter]

As a long term investment it's looking pretty darn solid. With ageing populations all around the world, healthcare is projected to easily be one of the fastest growing industries in the world between 2021 & 2029.

I don't think anybody doubts that it is a good company with good products. Only question is: how much is the company worth? It is quite easy to pay too much for a good thing, and if you do, it is - while still a good thing - not such a good investment.

[Rawz]

I don't think anybody doubts that it is a good company with good products. Only question is: how much is the company worth? It is quite easy to pay too much for a good thing, and if you do, it is - while still a good thing - not such a good investment.

You are right and this has happened to me. First buy at $31 then topped up at $35. Then have watched it slide ever since and thinking wtf..

At least it's a good company like you say and one can DCA if it drops further. Not like it's not going to be worth $100 one day.

[ratkin]

I don't think anybody doubts that it is a good company with good products. Only question is: how much is the company worth? It is quite easy to pay too much for a good thing, and if you do, it is - while still a good thing - not such a good investment.

This is true, some companies though, you always have to pay too much for. The real good ones, sometimes just have to jump on board, and let time turn it into a good investment, not sure if FPH is one of those though, but it probably is

[alokdhir]

Yesterday FPH went big down and closed at lowest point in 8 months ...Volumes were also big so seems its correcting to more attractive levels in the short term

Hopefully it will stay over $ 30 and some big players will also find it very attractive long term buy at these levels ...Forward p/e is around 36-38 depending upon whose FY 22 eps we use . Market p/e is at historic high levels almost double of normal and FPH is at very attractive levels vis a vis rest of the market

IMHO great time to add and hopefully it will turn around sooner then we think :D

[winner69]

Jeez went below 30 bucks ....but on way back again

[alex f]

It was only a few weeks ago, profits up 76% or so, from the same quarter the year before. US$ hadn’t seemed to worry anyone before, it’s been .71 for a while. The dollar will effect them but profits are way up. It going to take a long time to vaccinate everyone. I’m sure they’ll be back to 35-36 by June

[alex f]

Last update.....
we have no basis on which to provide formal guidance to results for the full
2021 financial year.

There is significant variability on a month-to-month basis for both our
Hospital hardware and consumables revenue. The revenue assumptions provided
on 25 November for Hospital hardware sales and usage for FY2021 are now
outdated. The company currently expects revenue and net profit after tax for
the 2021 financial year to be higher than implied by those previous
assumptions.

I don’t imagine there is an update coming up. There was one 21 Feb last year, maybe that is why people are worried?

[alokdhir]

Last update.....
we have no basis on which to provide formal guidance to results for the full
2021 financial year.

There is significant variability on a month-to-month basis for both our
Hospital hardware and consumables revenue. The revenue assumptions provided
on 25 November for Hospital hardware sales and usage for FY2021 are now
outdated. The company currently expects revenue and net profit after tax for
the 2021 financial year to be higher than implied by those previous
assumptions.

I don’t imagine there is an update coming up. There was one 21 Feb last year, maybe that is why people are worried?

Seems like a big player converting FPH ( Covid stocks ) to AIA type stocks ....but now its super attractive to long term buyers ...Have added more below 30 ...never expected to buy below 30 but in this world all can happen ...lol

[Rawz]

I'm not really into TA but is the next support $27?

[alokdhir]

I'm not really into TA but is the next support $27?

For me $ 28 is next strong support after breaking of $ 30.50....

High NZD and foreign funds selling is the short term reason for FPH below $ 30 ...Lack of buying is also contributing to big moves down on persistence selling pressures

Now its down for last 4 days in a row ...from 32.95 to 28.76 in 4 days ...maybe some bounce is due soon ...:ohmy:

[Blue Skies]

For me $ 28 is next strong support after breaking of $ 30.50....

High NZD and foreign funds selling is the short term reason for FPH below $ 30 ...Lack of buying is also contributing to big moves down on persistence selling pressures

Now its down for last 4 days in a row ...from 32.95 to 28.76 in 4 days ...maybe some bounce is due soon ...:ohmy:



Down 12% since start of the week. Initially I thought drop in SP solely due to sudden rise in exchange rate but as the week went on & SP continued to drop, seemed too much to explain this & something else driving it.
Your mention of big funds switching from Covid related stocks to Tourism stocks seemed plausible though if true I think a little premature and a big gamble.
Even in a post Covid world (which seems along way off) I can't see FPH's huge growth slowing much.
And with such long winded & incredibly stringent regulatory safety barriers to entry, the hospital & medical device market is not an easy one for competitors to jump into.
However, just a question of what PE one is prepared to pay for that future growth.
Seems oversold to me now, but we shall see.

[macduffy]

I agree, Blue Skies. The market looks forward but may have got a bit ahead of itself here. I'll wait for the SP to settle before adding to my little pile.

:)

[alokdhir]

Fully agree with both of your views ...FPH is and was a great company pre and post covid times ...Its good opportunity to add to your portfolio for long term .

I started adding below 30 and have added equal amounts in last four days

Foreign funds have 20% currency appreciation also going for them ( For sell side who entered NZ market around 60 cents levels ) and to them in USD its still not attractive at 28.50 NZD ...its only attractive to us in NZD terms ...we need to keep in mind

Still 25% down from its top is good price to get in

In USD terms its still sitting at 38 at 0.60 cents exchange levels

[HKG2301]

For me $ 28 is next strong support after breaking of $ 30.50....

High NZD and foreign funds selling is the short term reason for FPH below $ 30 ...Lack of buying is also contributing to big moves down on persistence selling pressures

Now its down for last 4 days in a row ...from 32.95 to 28.76 in 4 days ...maybe some bounce is due soon ...:ohmy:

Looks like that 28 level may be tested today. I need to see it (or the 27-level) hold before starting to buy.

US tech bust (ongoing) and the strong kiwi aren't helping matters...

[winner69]

Looks like that 28 level may be tested today. I need to see it (or the 27-level) hold before starting to buy.

US tech bust (ongoing) and the strong kiwi aren't helping matters...

Support around 18 bucks after that

[BlackPeter]

Support around 18 bucks after that

Good man ... ;):

[alokdhir]

Baby getting thrown with water is the story here ...so let it go where it goes ...finally people will see extreme value when results come in May ...maybe opposite of ATM will happen then up 20% ...:p

[alokdhir]

Today is index rebalancing day ...normally in auction it moves up on huge volumes ...30th Nov auction lead to 92 cents jump !!!

[BlackPeter]

Baby getting thrown with water is the story here ...so let it go where it goes ...finally people will see extreme value when results come in May ...maybe opposite of ATM will happen then up 20% ...:p

Well, well, they just touched the MA400 - this does not yet sound like babies being hurt. FPH always commanded a huge premium for being a quality company, maybe market just reviewing this premium? On a PE + growth basis they still are not cheap ...

[winner69]

Well, well, they just touched the MA400 - this does not yet sound like babies being hurt. FPH always commanded a huge premium for being a quality company, maybe market just reviewing this premium? On a PE + growth basis they still are not cheap ...

Might even get an abandoned baby candle pattern ...if a bearish one ..well shucks

[alokdhir]

Well, well, they just touched the MA400 - this does not yet sound like babies being hurt. FPH always commanded a huge premium for being a quality company, maybe market just reviewing this premium? On a PE + growth basis they still are not cheap ...

If u see historic PE values of FPH then u will find its at its most attractive levels since last 5 years or so ...This year maybe a covid boost but regular EPS growth of 20% will come back after that ( surely after correcting from covid boost point ) ....last year was 50 cents eps and SP was $ 25 pre covid time ....this year eps maybe 92 cents ....next year it will be around 80 cents so at healthcare industry PE of 45 it should be around 36-38 after this year May results

High NZD is making it unattractive to foreign funds ...not because it effects FPH profits that much but it effects their actual returns on investments in NZD

Also keep in mind NZX overall PE has almost doubled from historic levels ...MFT is at 38 PE while FPH is still below its historic levels

[Rawz]

If u see historic PE values of FPH then u will find its at its most attractive levels since last 5 years or so ...This year maybe a covid boost but regular EPS growth of 20% will come back after that ( surely after correcting from covid boost point ) ....last year was 50 cents eps and SP was $ 25 pre covid time ....this year eps maybe 92 cents ....next year it will be around 80 cents so at healthcare industry PE of 45 it should be around 36-38 after this year May results

High NZD is making it unattractive to foreign funds ...not because it effects FPH profits that much but it effects their actual returns on investments in NZD

Also keep in mind NZX overall PE has almost doubled from historic levels ...MFT is at 38 PE while FPH is still below its historic levels

I agree.

- Overseas funds able to sell at these levels with strong nz$
- Dramatic drop in covid cases thanks to vaccine is seeing funds leave healthcare and move to tourism related stocks etc
- NZX10 index in general has been sold off big in the last month

Interesting to see a nice little bounce today back into $29.

If you are into this stock you cant go wrong accumulating at these levels.

[HKG2301]

I agree.

- Overseas funds able to sell at these levels with strong nz$
- Dramatic drop in covid cases thanks to vaccine is seeing funds leave healthcare and move to tourism related stocks etc
- NZX10 index in general has been sold off big in the last month

Interesting to see a nice little bounce today back into $29.

If you are into this stock you cant go wrong accumulating at these levels.

Agree all that, mostly, but when to time your buy-in...?

To coin that old saw, 'beware trying to catch a falling knife'.

I know it's Friday close, but after almost 1.5M shares traded today, only 5k shares remain bid at the $28.xx level v's 100k ask at the $29.xx level, implying a bit of suck remains for Monday open.

I'm game to acquire a small holding in FPH - it's a share I've been keeping an eye on - but it still looks pricey, both TA-wise (support at the $27 level? Maybe?) and EPS-wise.

Without reading through this whole thread, any ideas why the divi has not kept pace with the company's covid-related explosion in sales/profits...?

[alokdhir]

With NZD sliding 2% vs USD last night ...FPH may look to extend its bounce next week ....$31 is the breakdown level so testing that very distinct possibility

World markets have become very choppy as no clear themes anymore ...opinion divided on many main issues ...Vaccine will make life normal soon theme vs Long protracted battle with Covid ...etc etc ...

Bond yields rising so fast is troubling growth stocks ...Inflation fears etc etc

My advise to myself ...keep calm and stay invested in your portfolio of FPH / MFT / KFL / NZG ...with small tinkering with weightage

Trying to get too smart in these times can be very dangerous ...also trying to time the market to perfection is Mission Impossible !!:p

[winner69]

I'll beat whoever it is that tells us this ....but exports of respiratory equipment were up $32m or 86% in January v pcp

Pretty slak month dollarwise but it was xmas break and maybe not enough boats

[Blue Skies]

I'll beat whoever it is that tells us this ....but exports of respiratory equipment were up $32m or 86% in January v pcp

Pretty slak month dollarwise but it was xmas break and maybe not enough boats


Oh wow, thanks Winner.
Just looked this up & yes (on Stat's NZ web site for anyone interested ) exports of respiratory equipment in January, up 86%, Jan 21 v jan 20.
Sorry can't help repeating that, 86%.
Next most significant seems to be logs, wood & wood articles up 4.1% & overall exports down 10% just to give some perspective.
Should provide some reassurance & cheer for anyone having any doubts or worried by last weeks 12% SP drop.

[alokdhir]

I checked that information on 26th but kept quite as didn't want to disturb the bears ....lol

Very pleased with my 28.27 lot of yesterday ...think I am getting too greedy as cant help feel this maybe golden opportunity before May results show how well they doing and what they think of next year ...never have seen FPH so undervalued in last 5 years based on its historic valuations and not Morningstars ..:p

[BlackPeter]

Oh wow, thanks Winner.
Just looked this up & yes (on Stat's NZ web site for anyone interested ) exports of respiratory equipment in January, up 86%, Jan 21 v jan 20.
Sorry can't help repeating that, 86%.
Next most significant seems to be logs, wood & wood articles up 4.1% & overall exports down 10% just to give some perspective.
Should provide some reassurance & cheer for anyone having any doubts or worried by last weeks 12% SP drop.

Isn't this comparing apples with grapefruit?

Exports of respiratory equipment up 86% over one year, and hey, who talked in January 2020 about Covid? Obviously - this will be the most outrageous growth number in a long time to come ...

FPH share price in the same timeframe (peak Jan 20 to peak Jan 21) up by 52%.

Pretty stiff rise given that SP normally does not rise linear with output / revenue. I wonder how much future growth expectations are baked into this share price and how much of that the company will be able to deliver?

[alokdhir]

Peak Jan 21 was 36.21 ...now at 29 ...its down 20 % already ....

Also if u compare peak Jan 19 to peak Jan 20 ....both pre covid ...will know it was already on growth path without Covid in the picture

[Blue Skies]

Isn't this comparing apples with grapefruit?

Exports of respiratory equipment up 86% over one year, and hey, who talked in January 2020 about Covid? Obviously - this will be the most outrageous growth number in a long time to come ...

FPH share price in the same timeframe (peak Jan 20 to peak Jan 21) up by 52%.

Pretty stiff rise given that SP normally does not rise linear with output / revenue. I wonder how much future growth expectations are baked into this share price and how much of that the company will be able to deliver?



Another way of looking at it, a year ago today the SP was $25.78 & after the recent drop today its only $29.25.
That's less than 14% up.
Looking at those recent export figures some people might think that's a miss match.

Disc, long term holder.

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-wanaka-couple-fear-long-covid-they-dont-know-if-i-am-going-to-be-like-this-forever/TY36FZC3CRTGQO4ZR5HT56LDWU/

Sad but true stories of many many after surviving Covid ...FPH HFNT home device helps in restoring fatigue and blood oxygen levels which actually cause that chronic fatigue...( Covid makes lungs inefficient by reducing active area of interface for gases transfer from and to blood )

[macduffy]

I'm game to acquire a small holding in FPH - it's a share I've been keeping an eye on - but it still looks pricey, both TA-wise (support at the $27 level? Maybe?) and EPS-wise.

Of course. The shares of the best companies are seldom offered at bargain prices.

:cool:

[winner69]

That 86% Jan TY v Jan LY for exports is weakest month for a while

Previous few months have been 102%, 133%, 104% and then the 86%

Sort of aligns with what FPH are saying re hospital sales

[alokdhir]

That 86% Jan TY v Jan LY for exports is weakest month for a while

Previous few months have been 102%, 133%, 104% and then the 86%

Sort of aligns with what FPH are saying re hospital sales

In absolute numbers also its lowest amount as Jan is only 16 days working I suppose ...but compared to last Jan ...ie like to like its still 86% up

We all know they still doing well and will keep doing well ....no need worry ...Covid has not hurt them but helped them ...so it will resume its up trend soon :t_up:

Here will like to add that after two big years of SP up move ....FPH normally consolidates in third year so I am not expecting 2021 to be spectacular ....but do expect 2022 and 2023 to be excellent

[BlackPeter]

deleted ...

[alokdhir]

deleted ...


If u read what I said ...that typically Jan is low volume month of every year ...so that should answer your simple question about how many working days in Jan 2020

In dollar terms Jan exports for FPH is always lowest ...every year ....BUT THIS YEAR IT WAS UP 86% FROM PREVIOUS YEAR NUMBERS ...;)

[alokdhir]

Dont know how far this bounce from strong support of $ 28 will go ...( $ 31+ possible as that was recent support which broke ) and how long it will last but today its showing that its still alive and kicking

Also showing that u dont get too much time to dither about to buy or let it go lower for a good company ...$ 28 was flash sale IMHO

[MarineSalvage]

always have to wait for the Aussies just after 12 before we know any trend... they can come along and smash it... usually its the same each day - early on you get the enthusiastic sharesies buyers who bid at market causing a bit of a rise, then at 12 the Aussies determine the day's trajectory

[alokdhir]

Yes I know ...NZX makes the high of the day and ASX makes the low of the day ...lol

[alokdhir]

Looks like FPH is fully out of flavour now ....With bond yields rising and vaccine goods news coming its sell FPH time for many ....

Breaking its long held support of $ 31 showing rot is deeper then I thought ..

Its now in Downtrend till market decides otherwise ...At least short term its pretty negative for FPH

Though I will keep holding as I am a LTH and believe in its story and pedigree

[Rawz]

Looks like FPH is fully out of flavour now ....With bond yields rising and vaccine goods news coming its sell FPH time for many ....

Breaking its long held support of $ 31 showing rot is deeper then I thought ..

Its now in Downtrend till market decides otherwise ...At least short term its pretty negative for FPH

Though I will keep holding as I am a LTH and believe in its story and pedigree

My buy order at $28.50 just got filled and I am pretty happy with that and will keep accumulating until its 15% of my portfolio if the price stays in the mid-high $20s.

I can't see it going below $27.

I don't remember seeing a downgrade announcement..? There is no rot in this company. Just a short term rotation out of health stocks.
Go back and read some of your positive posts as they still hold true. FPH is going to play a big role post COVID and as a LTH you will be fine.

[alokdhir]

My buy order at $28.50 just got filled and I am pretty happy with that and will keep accumulating until its 15% of my portfolio if the price stays in the mid-high $20s.

I can't see it going below $27.

I don't remember seeing a downgrade announcement..? There is no rot in this company. Just a short term rotation out of health stocks.
Go back and read some of your positive posts as they still hold true. FPH is going to play a big role post COVID and as a LTH you will be fine.

LTH fully positive still as nothing changed

I was talking about short term trend ...SP below 50MA which is below 200 MA that is called death cross ...it confirms short term down trend

Company is still doing well and will keep doing ahead too ...no doubt about that

But market sentiment is very strong at the moment to sell FPH and buy old economy stocks

Also rising bond yields is contracting PE overall

So put post to acknowledge the current situation ...fully know these market rotations and themes keep changing ...fully sure FPH will come back in flavour sooner then many think

Look at Israel ...most vaccinated country ...still getting 5K cases a day

So in next 3 months most likely market will swing back towards FPH type stocks

[macduffy]

Just sitting tight, waiting for the trend to reverse before adding to my growing FPH pile!

:)

[alokdhir]

My buy order at $28.50 just got filled and I am pretty happy with that and will keep accumulating until its 15% of my portfolio if the price stays in the mid-high $20s.

I can't see it going below $27.

I don't remember seeing a downgrade announcement..? There is no rot in this company. Just a short term rotation out of health stocks.
Go back and read some of your positive posts as they still hold true. FPH is going to play a big role post COVID and as a LTH you will be fine.

Want to add that I do expect a very positive profit upgrade announcement by month end after they had booked 11 months revenue on record so will have more confidence in updating full year guide provided in Nov last ...fingers crossed :cool:

[maclir]

They also made a statement in January https://www.nzx.com/announcements/366557

Included "There is significant variability on a month-to-month basis for both our Hospital hardware and consumables revenue. The revenue assumptions provided on 25 November for Hospital hardware sales and usage for FY2021 are now outdated. The company currently expects revenue and net profit after tax for the 2021 financial year to be higher than implied by those previous assumptions."

[sb9]

Broken down through the $28 mark and goes on my watchlist.

[HKG2301]

Broken down through the $28 mark and goes on my watchlist.

Broken through the $28 mark, so I bought.

:t_up:

[alokdhir]

TA experts out there .

Please enlighten us about the important support levels as today maybe another big turmoil day for FPH keeping in view US yields at high of the year again

But that has helped bring NZD down below 72 after a long while above it which should help FPH

What can be most attractive levels to look for if their is panic

[winner69]

TA experts out there .

Please enlighten us about the important support levels as today maybe another big turmoil day for FPH keeping in view US yields at high of the year again

But that has helped bring NZD down below 72 after a long while above it which should help FPH

What can be most attractive levels to look for if their is panic

Bit of support around $27 but as I said before next solid support after that is $17 odd but it won't get there today

There's a 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $26.70 - some TA people love Fibonacci support levels as nature is a wonderful thing.

But seeing you worried mate today will probably be a UP day and we willend the week a bit happier.

[alokdhir]

Bit of support around $27 but as I said before next solid support after that is $17 odd but it won't get there today

There's a 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $26.70 - some TA people love Fibonacci support levels as nature is a wonderful thing.

But seeing you worried mate today will probably be a UP day and we willend the week a bit happier.

I am actually not worried for my big LTH holdings but trying to utilise on this opportunity given to us

As its great company and will keep doing well but demand and supply mismatch provides opportunities which should be accepted

Thanks for your insights buddy ....Last March in panic it formed a low of $ 21.20 only and that was a big big panic ...compared to that it only ...so maybe max. $ 25 !!!!

[alokdhir]

Just sitting tight, waiting for the trend to reverse before adding to my growing FPH pile!

:)

What about your thoughts on when to get into FPH further ...seems like stabilising around 27.60 ??

[macduffy]

What about your thoughts on when to get into FPH further ...seems like stabilising around 27.60 ??

Not yet, for me! But I won't be ringing a bell when the time comes.

[peat]

Not yet, for me! But I won't be ringing a bell when the time comes.

Oh c'mon man play the game where is your team spirit.

[alokdhir]

Not yet, for me! But I won't be ringing a bell when the time comes.


:t_up: Ok as U say ...thought can use your experience ...

[macduffy]

Oh c'mon man play the game where is your team spirit.

I'll be doing my usual thing - buying about a third when a base appears to have been set, buying the rest - or not buying - on confirmation/or not, of the trend.

[Rawz]

Strong finish for FPH at $28.55.
VWAP $28.26

Was down to $27.60 in the morning.

[macduffy]

I'll be doing my usual thing - buying about a third when a base appears to have been set, buying the rest - or not buying - on confirmation/or not, of the trend.

Back in the market today!

:)

[Rawz]

Back in the market today!

:)

Good on you. Hope you got a nice price- it bounced up quickly to $29.50+. Who knows where it finishes as its early morning.

You clearly happy that a base has been set. At $28

[alokdhir]

Good on you. Hope you got a nice price- it bounced up quickly to $29.50+. Who knows where it finishes as its early morning.

You clearly happy that a base has been set. At $28


Many people feeling lucky today ...Hopefully market makers in Australia will not destroy our happiness after 12 pm ...fingers crossed

Though I still looking for a formal profit upgrade as per the requirements of NZX listing ...maybe around 18th March when they are more confident of the numbers to tell us

2.2 B revenue ...540 mil NP is consensus going around !!!

Can get interesting ahead :t_up:

[macduffy]

Good on you. Hope you got a nice price- it bounced up quickly to $29.50+. Who knows where it finishes as its early morning.

You clearly happy that a base has been set. At $28

Well, yes and no. I buy around a third and wait for confirmation of the trend. If not forthcoming, I'll keep waiting!

[jimdog31]

Many people feeling lucky today ...Hopefully market makers in Australia will not destroy our happiness after 12 pm ...fingers crossed

Though I still looking for a formal profit upgrade as per the requirements of NZX listing ...maybe around 18th March when they are more confident of the numbers to tell us

2.2 B revenue ...540 mil NP is consensus going around !!!

Can get interesting ahead :t_up:

THeres gotta be some manipulation going on here. The whales in Aussie keep smacking it down every day. Feels like ATm, only, FPH has positive announcements to come I believe

[winner69]

A 8% swing intraday is pretty huge

[Jaa]

Another fall on close too...

Finally had a nibble today. First purchase since $3.6, though I did reinvest dividends when they offered it at prices between $1.89 and $15 !

[alokdhir]

Its being clubbed with high growth , high PE tech stocks ...with bond yields rising its PE contraction theme ...

Let them play their games ...we keep our shares ...:D

[jimdog31]

Its being clubbed with high growth , high PE tech stocks ...with bond yields rising its PE contraction theme ...

Let them play their games ...we keep our shares ...:D

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/FPH/368789/341964.pdf

Director buying more - surely hes not doing that if the news isnt good

[alokdhir]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/FPH/368789/341964.pdf

Director buying more - surely hes not doing that if the news isnt good

First of all he just bought 500 shares ...but still bought ..lol

News is fantastic and will be good ahead also ...its more to do with what should be its PE now in rising rates environment ...as bonds yields rise future earnings get less multiples so PE contracts and SP comes down

Now FPH is at less PE then MFT ....such things also happen when stock gets over owned by foreign smart money :p

[jimdog31]

First of all he just bought 500 shares ...but still bought ..lol

News is fantastic and will be good ahead also ...its more to do with what should be its PE now in rising rates environment ...as bonds yields rise future earnings get less multiples so PE contracts and SP comes down

Now FPH is at less PE then MFT ....such things also happen when stock gets over owned by foreign smart money :p

I still think that the USD rate is the biggest determining factor.

[alokdhir]

I still think that the USD rate is the biggest determining factor.

If it was just USD rate then FPH should have been rising last week as NZD fell from 0.745 to 0.7120 ....

Today it should follow high PE tech stocks up I suppose

[Nor]

Bet it doesn’t, bet it's in the health downtrend.

[Rawz]

Flip a coin with FPH.. Just depends on which whale is buying or selling. Could be up 2-4% or down 2-4%.
Or could do what it did the other day and go down 4% only to finish up 4% :confused:

Either way looks like $28 might hold.

[LEMON]

Jumped on board at $27.55 the other day.
I was reading today in a book about the prospect of a future/current "depression" after covid in the USA and never realised that ventilators are causing more deaths in covid due to patients needing more oxygen delivering devices and not an extra lung to combat the respiratory impact.
Knowing that FPH doesn't make ventilators but ventilation, humidifiers and respiratory masks that help with soft breathing makes me feel more positive about my investment, all eyes on the 31st of March.

[Rawz]

Jumped on board at $27.55 the other day.
I was reading today in a book about the prospect of a future/current "depression" after covid in the USA and never realised that ventilators are causing more deaths in covid due to patients needing more oxygen delivering devices and not an extra lung to combat the respiratory impact.
Knowing that FPH doesn't make ventilators but ventilation, humidifiers and respiratory masks that help with soft breathing makes me feel more positive about my investment, all eyes on the 31st of March.

Great price! Well done.

[alokdhir]

Flip a coin with FPH.. Just depends on which whale is buying or selling. Could be up 2-4% or down 2-4%.
Or could do what it did the other day and go down 4% only to finish up 4% :confused:

Either way looks like $28 might hold.

Close over 29.71 will confirm that short term trend has reversed ....

LTH no need worry at all as its bluest chip of NZX ..." Time in the market will decide returns here not timing " in 3-5 years time current SP will be immaterial like 3-5 years back prices now look so far away !!

:t_up:

[Leftfield]

Close over 29.71 will confirm that short term trend has reversed ....

LTH no need worry at all as its bluest chip of NZX ..." Time in the market will decide returns here not timing " in 3-5 years time current SP will be immaterial like 3-5 years back prices now look so far away !!

:t_up:

Also managed to snaffle some at $27.50 as my travels and dodgy internet allow. My DCA looking good given I’m a late starter in this one. Happy to have this in the portfolio as a long term hold..

[Rawz]

Also managed to snaffle some at $27.50 as my travels and dodgy internet allow. My DCA looking good given I’m a late starter in this one. Happy to have this in the portfolio as a long term hold..

Well done. $27.50- $28.50 good DCA hunting ground imo

[alokdhir]

Also managed to snaffle some at $27.50 as my travels and dodgy internet allow. My DCA looking good given I’m a late starter in this one. Happy to have this in the portfolio as a long term hold..


Lucky buddy ...27.50 is great price for this quality company ...so well done :t_up:

[alokdhir]

As we all know Covid hospitalisations effect FPH revenues in a big way so I did a fact check on whats going on that side ...

Appox total covid patients in hospitals on 1st Oct 2020 = 60000

On 7th Jan peaked at 290000

latest on 6th March = 135000

So its still double of 1st Oct numbers but coming down fast as lock downs and other preventive measures used extensively . Vaccines will start having effect little later maybe another 3-6 months as numbers of vaccinated people go significantly higher

Biggest contribution is of USA , UK , France &Italy and now Poland and many others smaller countries rising up as bigger countries going down

Though numbers are down big time from Jan peak but still well north of 100K Covid patients

If we keep track of this numbers we will know positive effect of vaccines in real time

Source covid-hospitalizations (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations)

Conclusion from FPH point of view ....Covid may directly help its revenues in FY 22 also unlike markets perceptions ...Indirect effects and other lasting positives will last forever in future so good prospects of it getting rerated upwards sooner then latter

[HKG2301]

This is not over yet...

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/covid-cases-are-spiking-dozen-states-high-vaccination-rates

[HKG2301]

This is not over yet...

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/covid-cases-are-spiking-dozen-states-high-vaccination-rates

[alokdhir]

Gradon says a key impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on F&P Healthcare is bringing forward, or speeding up, its growth.
"[We are] installing a lot of hardware in hospitals all around the world. We would have expected that to happen anyway, a bit more slowly. The impact of COVID on our business is we're pulling forward some of what we would've done anyway. I guess it depends how long COVID goes on for. If it goes on for the rest of the year we'd probably think of it as we've just got three or four years ahead. We'll be where we would've been in three or four years time.

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/105988/fisher-paykel-healthcare-ceo-lewis-gradon-talks-gareth-vaughan-about-his-companys

3-4 years ahead Covid brought FPH revenues ...SP will also go 3-4 years ahead ...so far only 1.5 years ahead ...will catch up sooner then later ...maybe after FY 21 results and next year Guide from company

[kiora]

In the mean time built the new facilities out of cash flow, paid back all debt, banking the free cash flows of around $1/share
There is only one way this can go?

[kiora]

In the mean time built the new facilities out of cash flow, paid back all debt, banking the free cash flows of around $1/share
There is only one way this can go?

[Leftfield]

Alokdhir thanks for posting that article. FPH worlds leading supplier of at least 2 of the leading tools to fight COVID..

So what exactly does F&P Healthcare make that's used for treating patients with COVID-19?
"We make a humidifier that goes on these ventilators that you've been hearing about. These ventilators have a tube that goes right down into the lungs and what our system does is it connects the ventilator to that tube. And it makes sure that that gas is at body temperature saturated, so it's at 37º Celsius and 100% relative humidity before it enters the lungs. And we're the world's largest supplier of those humidifiers," Gradon says.
"The second thing we do is a newer therapy. It's called nasal high flow, our system's called Optiflow. And over the course of the pandemic clinical practice has changed. It started off with using the ventilators as first choice. And over time we learned that nasal high flow is a very, very effective way of preventing that ventilator use and getting people better in a much less invasive and much less risky way. And in a way that can preserve ICU beds and ventilators for the patients that really, really need them... Once again we're the world's largest supplier of that nasal high flow therapy."

Kiora - I’m banking on you these sentiments.

[Leftfield]

Alokdhir thanks for posting that article. FPH worlds leading supplier of at least 2 of the leading tools to fight COVID..

So what exactly does F&P Healthcare make that's used for treating patients with COVID-19?
"We make a humidifier that goes on these ventilators that you've been hearing about. These ventilators have a tube that goes right down into the lungs and what our system does is it connects the ventilator to that tube. And it makes sure that that gas is at body temperature saturated, so it's at 37º Celsius and 100% relative humidity before it enters the lungs. And we're the world's largest supplier of those humidifiers," Gradon says.
"The second thing we do is a newer therapy. It's called nasal high flow, our system's called Optiflow. And over the course of the pandemic clinical practice has changed. It started off with using the ventilators as first choice. And over time we learned that nasal high flow is a very, very effective way of preventing that ventilator use and getting people better in a much less invasive and much less risky way. And in a way that can preserve ICU beds and ventilators for the patients that really, really need them... Once again we're the world's largest supplier of that nasal high flow therapy."

Kiora - I’m banking on you these sentiments.

[kiora]

No worries LF boom boom :)

[kiora]

No worries LF boom boom :)

[alokdhir]

Next 3-5 years can be real Boom time for this company .... Only few market participants like Fisher funds and Craigs etc openly bullish about this stock ...rest many are still skeptics ...maybe as they still accumulating ...lol

Normally when the stock comes in limelight for sucking in retail the main players had already done their buying :p

[LEMON]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/369507

[alokdhir]

I am surprised that its 22nd March and FPH has still not formally updated its current year Guide

I know they said in Jan that cant predict well but now nothing much left to predict ...surely they can update the market what they now see full year earnings !!!

Not very FPH like behaviour ....normally they are very investor friendly company with prompt continuous disclosures of all important aspects ...

[winner69]

Exports of respiratory equipment from NZ only up 30% in February .....slowing?

[MarineSalvage]

would think significant volumes move from overseas production sites too...

Exports of respiratory equipment from NZ only up 30% in February .....slowing?

[alokdhir]

Exports of respiratory equipment from NZ only up 30% in February .....slowing?


Its after Covid effect had already started from last Feb . They came with two profit upgrades last year in Feb and March ...China was big buyer in Feb last year due to Covid in China .

So this 30 % up on last Feb which had covid boost built into it somewhat is still not too bad IMHO

[mikelee]

I haven't seen any NZ made mask (in bulk) and I doubt that Asia would be buying our mask due to cost and their own ramped up prodution capabilities. I personally consider this share price a bit inflated, similar to AIA.

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=mikelee;877652]I haven't seen any NZ made mask (in bulk) and I doubt that Asia would be buying our mask due to cost and their own ramped up prodution capabilities. I personally consider this share price a bit inflated, similar to AIA.[/QUOTE

21/2/2020, 9:00 am MKTUPDTE
News Release
STOCK EXCHANGE LISTINGS: NEW ZEALAND (FPH), AUSTRALIA (FPH)
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare updates revenue and earnings guidance on stronger Hospital and Homecare sales
Auckland, New Zealand, 21 February 2020 - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited announced today that it has updated its revenue and earnings guidance for the financial year ended 31 March 2020.
The full year guidance previously provided in November, based on a NZ:US exchange rate of 64 cents, was for operating revenue to be approximately $1.19 billion and net profit after tax to be approximately $255 million to $265 million.
Now, assuming a NZ:US exchange rate of approximately 64 cents for the balance of the financial year, the company expects full year operating revenue to be approximately $1.2 billion and net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $260 million to $270 million.
“We’ve seen better-than-expected sales in our Homecare product group combined with continued strong growth in our Hospital product group. This includes an increase in demand from China related to the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak,” said Lewis Gradon, Managing Director and CEO.

Company talking about increased demand from China for their HFN therapy hospital equipment and other consumables used in hospitals ....They dont make masks for public use but for hospital use and they are not sold in bulk

[BlackPeter]

I haven't seen any NZ made mask (in bulk) and I doubt that Asia would be buying our mask due to cost and their own ramped up prodution capabilities. I personally consider this share price a bit inflated, similar to AIA.

With all due respect - do you know what you are talking about? FPH certainly is not a producer of facemasks ...

[Leftfield]

FPH TA looking good. Climbing from recent dip.
My best recent buy was $27.30. Happy to be on board and in profit. FPH now 15% of my portfolio.

[alokdhir]

FPH TA looking good. Climbing from recent dip.
My best recent buy was $27.30. Happy to be on board and in profit. FPH now 15% of my portfolio.

What is your current run TA target ? Me looking at first stop 33.25 ...if crosses then bigger jump possible ...maybe too early for that ...but looking good after scary early march ...

[Leftfield]

What is your current run TA target ? Me looking at first stop 33.25 ...if crosses then bigger jump possible ...maybe too early for that ...but looking good after scary early march ...

Scary early March was a good buying opportunity I didn’t think would happen but happy it did.

Agree around 32 is short term resistance so happy if it continues north of this.

That said it’s where it will be in 2 to 5 yrs that interests me.

[alokdhir]

Scary early March was a good buying opportunity I didn’t think would happen but happy it did.

Agree around 32 is short term resistance so happy if it continues north of this.

That said it’s where it will be in 2 to 5 yrs that interests me.


My overall 3-6 years view on FPH is reaching $ 100 but I dont expect too much in current calendar year after its 2 bumper calendar years before . To everyone's surprise it may come it actually gave higher return in calendar 2019 then 2020 corona year ...so its consolidated a lot since its last high of 37.80 in August 2020 .

Bigger picture remains very rosy over long term as company itself expects better growth ahead so adding manufacturing capacity to almost double levels by 2023

Healthcare is going to be under spotlight for long time to come ...Whole world needs more hospitals especially western world as that got totally ignored by governments always fighting deficits etc

Around late May to August FPH should make its decisive move after company results and views ahead and world knowing the fate of this pandemic duration ...

[Leftfield]

Big trade of 1 mill shares today at $32.18.
Onwards and upwards.

[macduffy]

Big trade of 1 mill shares today at $32.18.
Onwards and upwards.

Here's hoping that the buyer knows more than the seller!

Disc: Holding

[Rawz]

I wish I bought more shares when they were bumping around $27.50-$28.50 :mellow:

[Waltzing]

wish we had held on to the trust shares a while ago... You really had to believe that their product was better or as good as world class. ... It was ...

You had to know the products and that they would not go the way of F & P.

[alokdhir]

wish we had held on to the trust shares a while ago... You really had to believe that their product was better or as good as world class. ... It was ...

You had to know the products and that they would not go the way of F & P.

U don't become Number 1 company if u dont have world class products ...also keep in mind they have a 10% of revenues budget for R&D every year ...helps with tax as well as developing new and world class products

They just needed to show to the world their excellent products and new therapy devices to help in respiratory care ...Covid gave them that opportunity in a big way ...They have been put centre stage of world Respiratory care . Its only going to get better and better with this excellent exposure they got at such fast pace

Next 3-5 years will turn out to be their best ...$ 100 by 2026 :t_up:

[MarineSalvage]

On a side note: If you are board gamer - I thoroughly recommend getting the limited edition FPH game - its great - a tile laying/resource allocation game like Settlers of Catan etc - it was released by FPH for the 50th anniversary - good fun - my family (3 of who have shares) all enjoy it and have learned a lot about the company and products...

[winner69]

This guy a bit depressed about where the NZD is heading

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/109817/roger-j-kerr-says-halo-has-signs-starting-slip-pm-jacinda-ardern’s-head-kiwi-dollar

[macduffy]

This guy a bit depressed about where the NZD is heading

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/109817/roger-j-kerr-says-halo-has-signs-starting-slip-pm-jacinda-ardern’s-head-kiwi-dollar

Maybe, but at least a weaker NZD will be good news for exporters such as FPH!

[Bjauck]

Maybe, but at least a weaker NZD will be good news for exporters such as FPH! For FPH, will a weaker NZD be cancelled out by successful vaccine effect? Past two years have seen sp returns for FPH of approx about 43% pa (NZX50 13.5%) according to Sharesight.

[peat]

classic bullish pattern
12299

what a wild ride its been since that bullish (sic) pattern shown on 11/2 hahah.... crazy...

12418

[Leftfield]

what a wild ride its been since that bullish (sic) pattern shown on 11/2 hahah.... crazy...

12418

Sexy chart, highlights the recent buying opportunity well.

My best buy in this time was at $27.30 on 9 March. Looking quite auspicious in retrospect!

[alokdhir]

Seeing how covid pandemic and human nature of me first etc panning out ...I am becoming more and more convinced that FPH has lots to run before it will rest !

Astra and J&J vaccine having problems on being widely tested in the world , human behaviour not letting covid numbers rest anywhere in the world ...All this will eventually lead to newer variants of concern . UK's reluctance to lockdown brought UK variant which is at present conquering the world much more swiftly then original one ...so on and so forth ...sad to see !!!

FPH seems like greatest defensive play ...got sold out on vaccine news ...will be rebought with vengeance ...Year end can be in high 40's

[moose]

Any thoughts on why we haven't had another trading update? usual reasoning would suggest that it is because the FY results are going to be within the guidance already issued - however in these strange times there hasn't been any guidance “Given the significant uncertainties associated with the course of COVID-19, the effectiveness or adoption of preventative measures, the progress of vaccines and their outcomes and the impact on future hospitalisation rates, we have no basis on which to provide formal guidance to results for the full 2021 financial year." from Last release in Jan.
Its unusual for F&P as they generally keep investors well informed. My view (FWIW) is that we will get something in the next week or so.....

[alokdhir]

Any thoughts on why we haven't had another trading update? usual reasoning would suggest that it is because the FY results are going to be within the guidance already issued - however in these strange times there hasn't been any guidance “Given the significant uncertainties associated with the course of COVID-19, the effectiveness or adoption of preventative measures, the progress of vaccines and their outcomes and the impact on future hospitalisation rates, we have no basis on which to provide formal guidance to results for the full 2021 financial year." from Last release in Jan.
Its unusual for F&P as they generally keep investors well informed. My view (FWIW) is that we will get something in the next week or so.....




I had an email exchange on that subject with investor relation manager ...He says as we are getting big swings in monthly as well even weekly sales / orders so we are unable to properly forecast ahead like before . He says look forward to FY 21 results on 27th May .

It generally takes them 3 weeks after close of last period to have an good idea of their that period performance so only after April 21st they will know about full year numbers . Then FY 21 results will be too close to make any market announcements ...so I wont be expecting anything soon

But as they have already said many times that their sales are directly related to Covid Hospitalisations world over so its safe to assume they are doing very well and will continue to till we have high levels of infections continuing in the world .

Now with almost universal acceptance of their Non Invasive Ventilation therapies and products for frontline Covid patient treatment in hospitals after seeing its benefits while being used as trials at many hospitals world over they will be doing even better then before . Many new hospitals will be adopting their devices and equipment thus creating short term as well as long term income streams

Overall next 3-5 years should be highest growth time for FPH ... SP will depend upon when analysts wake up to this :cool:

[Waltzing]

P/E has been elevated for sometime now.

price surely already reflects a lot of that growth>

[alokdhir]

P/E has been elevated for sometime now.

price surely already reflects a lot of that growth>

Historic PE range is 35-60 ...at present 48 historic and almost 35 forward ...so not elevated as per previous ranges ....But if analysts think much bigger eps fall for FY22 then in reality ...that can be the main difference

Most are penciling max 80 cents eps for FY 22 thinking coronavirus boost will get over very soon ie end of this pandemic . If that assumption is not right and FPH actually grows in FY22 also to say $ 1.10 eps then SP should be where ......

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2021/04/covid-19-south-african-variant-can-break-through-pfizer-vaccine-israeli-study.html

[Blue Skies]

In the US there is growing realisation that the numbers of people wanting to get the vaccine may be reached later this year, but that's going to be well below the numbers required to reach herd immunity. Until now the priority has been to vaccinate those keen to get the vaccine, that's the easy part, but soon that is going to have to shift to those resistant to vaccination & the wait & see's, i.e. the US is going to hit a vaccination wall.
Added to that, as some American friends who have been vaccinated said, no one knows how long the vaccine will protect us for.
This is far from over.

[Old mate]

Why does this stocks price move so much on what seems no news. Is it trading?

[Old mate]

Why does this stocks price move so much on what seems no news. Is it trading?

[Rawz]

Why does this stocks price move so much on what seems no news. Is it trading?

I remember reading (maybe on here) an article where a broker said it just depends on the offshore funds orders for the day. On somedays a big fish wants to sell and others they want to buy.

[Leftfield]

Why does this stocks price move so much on what seems no news. Is it trading?

I've also noted changes reflecting NZD shifts but have no idea whether there is a correlation.

[winner69]

Some old guy on the tele said this today .. not re FPH but seems relevant

If a stock you like goes up, it’s justified. If a stock you don’t like goes up, it’s gone too far too fast. That’s why fundamentals and valuation are always the dispassionate divining rod.

Pretty cool eh

[peat]

This stock certainly maintains a good level of volatility. Has become good for day trading

12427

That gap just had to be filled.

[Rawz]

Covid pandemic still growing exponentially, WHO says

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/12/covid-pandemic-still-growing-exponentially-who-says?utm_source=morning_brew

[winner69]

FPH a hero yesterday

Media headline -

FP Healthcare props up share market

[Leftfield]

FPH a hero yesterday

Media headline -

FP Healthcare props up share market

Happy, happy...... long may it last!!. Crikey even 'Golden cross' TA territory?? ( now 16% of my portfolio and nicely in profit.)

[winner69]

Looking forward to 40 bucks in next week or two

What then - 50 bucks by years end

[MarineSalvage]

certainly hope so

Looking forward to 40 bucks in next week or two

What then - 50 bucks by years end

[Rawz]

Looking forward to 40 bucks in next week or two

What then - 50 bucks by years end

Remember when you could buy these for $27-$28 like a month ago. Just goes to show the NZX will always throw up great buys every now and then

[alokdhir]

RES MED quarterly results are out today and they have done pretty ordinarily ...much below market expectations ...

Here FPH March quarter didn't look very flash either ...fingers crossed for its annual results on 27th May

But one thing has emerged for surely that FPH products and therapies have got big thumbs up from doctors worldwide ...They have scored better in many different areas of comparison with competitors products and therapies ...which will help it keep growing in future too

In nutshell they got excellent exposure due to Covid and this will help them in a big way going forward

IMHO March quarter sales of hospital hardware is question mark after getting not so flash signs from Stats NZ data ...

[winner69]

What were March numbers ex Stats ..they didn’t put in commentary and I’m too lazy to go looking

Did see we imported heaps of clothes

[alokdhir]

What were March numbers ex Stats ..they didn’t put in commentary and I’m too lazy to go looking

Did see we imported heaps of clothes

Total March quarter up 20% over PCP and March monthly up 5.7 % over last March ...I know covid boost for them started in feb last year still this march only up 6% ...IMO they export hardware from NZ but thats just a guess ...They say 68% from NZ and 32% from Mexico ...YoY they are up 50.1% from NZ

Dec quarter was biggest as per Stats NZ data

[Leftfield]

Looking forward to 40 bucks in next week or two

What then - 50 bucks by years end

Crikey Winner..... your enthusiasm sure put a hex on the SP today.

[alokdhir]

I have done extensive study of my estimations / correlation with Stats Nz data ...But I cant come out with better figures then 1.95 B revenue and 490 M profits for full year ...which is short as per market consensus ....So lets hope I am wrong on 27th May ....:p

[BlackPeter]

I have done extensive study of my estimations / correlation with Stats Nz data ...But I cant come out with better figures then 1.95 B revenue and 490 M profits for full year ...which is short as per market consensus ....So lets hope I am wrong on 27th May ....:p

.... or maybe its just one of these stories: "Sell it in May and stay away". Their appears to be a hell of a lot of resistance below $38 :):

12477

Great company, but haven't seen so far a company with a sustainably exponential development of the share price. But who knows, one learns every day new things, maybe FPH is the first ... or - maybe not?

On the other hand - average backward PE is 100 - hey this must be cheap for such an outstanding company, isn't it? I remember times when amazon sold at P/E's of several hundred. I guess not as cheap as last week, but hey - lets climb the wall of worries, shall we :)?

Discl: shy of heights ... and not holding;

[alokdhir]

.... or maybe its just one of these stories: "Sell it in May and stay away". Their appears to be a hell of a lot of resistance below $38 :):

12477

Great company, but haven't seen so far a company with a sustainably exponential development of the share price. But who knows, one learns every day new things, maybe FPH is the first ... or - maybe not?

On the other hand - average backward PE is 100 - hey this must be cheap for such an outstanding company, isn't it? I remember times when amazon sold at P/E's of several hundred. I guess not as cheap as last week, but hey - lets climb the wall of worries, shall we :)?

Discl: shy of heights ... and not holding;

I understand your point ...but as a long term holder I will keep holding as I know its one of that kind company which will eventually make new highs ...Fundamentally its a great company and not easy to find companies like FPH / MFT ...Holding them makes more sense always then trying to be smart or timing them ...

Short term or in this year it may consolidate but eventually it will go places ...

PS : U never know how market reacts to same news as they may see brighter side there :)

[winner69]

I have done extensive study of my estimations / correlation with Stats Nz data ...But I cant come out with better figures then 1.95 B revenue and 490 M profits for full year ...which is short as per market consensus ....So lets hope I am wrong on 27th May ....:p

Not that far off consensus so no worries

EPS of 90 cents puts it on a PE of just 40 ---- not expensive

And more growth to come in F22

[winner69]

.... or maybe its just one of these stories: "Sell it in May and stay away".

..........

On the other hand - average backward PE is 100 - ;

You and your backward PEs :eek2:

Forward looking E about 40 .... pretty cheap for a high growth high ROE company..... nowhere near 100 eh .... never mind, cant stop you assessing things your way

that sell in may stuff ....isn't it a seasonal thing ..... for this part of the world its buy in May and enjoy the ride

[alokdhir]

Not that far off consensus so no worries

EPS of 90 cents puts it on a PE of just 40 ---- not expensive

And more growth to come in F22

Did some more research over consensus estimates over various websites and found them to looking for 2037mil to 2074 mil revenue with NPAT of 535 to 558 mil

So agree with u that my best estimate is only 75 mil short on revenue which is within my estimation error ...after all I just estimating their full year revenues from NZ export figures ...co relations could have changed etc in this Covid year

Also I kept NPAT %age same but analysis's have increased it up to 2% keeping in view higher revenues .

So 540 Mil NPAT and 2B revenue is very possible ...fingers crossed

DOES ANYONE HAS ACCESS TO CRAIGS FPH REPORTS ?? They are following it most closely and its in their Broker's pick also for this year .
If anyone can share their latest report on FPH ...it will be very informative for us holders

[winner69]

Me old mate BlackPeter mentioned 'sustainably exponential development of the share price' ..... implying the end of the rise is near

He should know better and use log scales when talking about exponentially

Share price seems rather flat to me

[winner69]

The log scale FPH chart does support BlackPeter's claim of an awful lot of resistance at $38

[kiora]

Craigs
85% sales consumables
NPAT
21 -$ 526m,90-95cps
22- $ 410m,70 cps hopefully a bit light
Future growth from transitioning hospital products more towards noninvasive ventilation from invasive ventilation

I would think exchange rates have a reasonable effect on NPAT ?

[BlackPeter]

You and your backward PEs :eek2:


As long as you are comparing apples with apples it makes a lot of sense to look at them. They tell you a lot about the historic performance of a company vs its price. Forward PE's on the other hand only tell you about the phantasies of some financial analyst analyst. If I am assessing companies I know which of these inputs I prefer :):



that sell in may stuff ....isn't it a seasonal thing ..... for this part of the world its buy in May and enjoy the ride

True ... however - our markets do have a tendency to follow the northern hemisphere markets - has something to do with gravitational forces :): Anyway - I admit, I found the saying in the past as reliable (but not more) than the consensus forecasts of our best analysts :p; Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong.

[alokdhir]

The log scale FPH chart does support BlackPeter's claim of an awful lot of resistance at $38

$ 38 has been standing since last August ...it will be conquered sometime as FPH is a growing company , maturing into a NZ bluechip like MFT ...

So its only a question of time not otherwise IMHO

Though I expect $ 38 to be crossed in this quarter ...after its crossed ...breakout will lead it to 42.50 levels fast ...thats the place to get out if anyone eager to sell such a bluechip

Some stocks like FPH/ MFT suit better to hold and not trade ...but some like ATM suit better to trade ...IMHO

Here I know and agree that it has moved fast in last 2-3 years and needs to consolidate but still a hold as it pays dividend also which is higher rate then 5year Term Deposit :D

[winner69]

Craigs
85% sales consumables
NPAT
21 -$ 526m,90-95cps
22- $ 410m,70 cps hopefully a bit light
Future growth from transitioning hospital products more towards noninvasive ventilation from invasive ventilation

I would think exchange rates have a reasonable effect on NPAT ?

F21 526m and then a 22% drop in earnings to 410m in F22

Wonder how market will react to a 20% drop in earnings (if it eventuates)

FPH might do an A2 .....market darling becoming an ugly duckling as it gets rerated.

Hope not but market can be pretty fickle when high fliers on high multiples see growth slowing.

[kiora]

Haha W69
You keep painting short term scenario?

Long term (10 yr+)highly likely FPH will keep growing at 15% compounding and will not be dependent on coronavirus

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/

[winner69]

I remember 20 years ago when F&P split into two.

Everybody wanted to keep their Appliance shares and hock off their Healthcare ones because they didn’t understand the Healthcare business and where the value was

Became a bit of a traders dream share for a while .....I remember almost doubling my money overnight on one trade when things got exciting before things settled down.

Suppose even these days the long term is not appreciated as much as it should be.

[winner69]

The beginning of this thread is interesting

Suppose the title thread is still relevant tday

[kiora]

Yes the beginning was interesting
I brought my first lot at $4 and it dropped to $3 so I doubled down.
I admit even back then I didn't have an exit strategy

[RupertBear]

F21 526m and then a 22% drop in earnings to 410m in F22

Wonder how market will react to a 20% drop in earnings (if it eventuates)

FPH might do an A2 .....market darling becoming an ugly duckling as it gets rerated.

Hope not but market can be pretty fickle when high fliers on high multiples see growth slowing.

Ohhh noooo! :scared: Who is this bleak person posting as No Worries Winner!! :confused:

[winner69]

Ohhh noooo! :scared: Who is this bleak person posting as No Worries Winner!! :confused:

You’ve got to consider the good things ....and be aware of what might go wrong

Put the good things in column 1 ...the what msy go wrong in column 2

If column 1 longer tham column 2 theN NO WORRIES

[Leftfield]

The beginning of this thread is interesting
Suppose the title thread is still relevant tday

Interesting to see the old thread and the personalities involved...... be interesting to hear from any long term holders and how they have fared.

FWIW to avoid confusion I've merged the two FPH threads back into one.

[winner69]

Forsyth Barr has a 12-month target price of $32.50 for FPH

[alokdhir]

Forsyth Barr has a 12-month target price of $32.50 for FPH

Usually negative Jarden has $ 36.15 and Craigs have $ 41.15 updated target . FB is most negative on it while Fisher funds is most positive on it .

Pure analysts which do not manage funds but give advise only are always all over the place ...thats why I trust the judgement and skills of Fisher funds as they are fund managers too ...they put their money on their picks ...not just give advise

PS : Jarden also highlighted their new market leader status in hospital equipment got well entrenched after this pandemic which will lead to long term growth ahead . Add to that new area of Homecare ventilation which will help them grow their home care side too

[winner69]

Usually negative Jarden has $ 36.15 and Craigs have $ 41.15 updated target . FB is most negative on it while Fisher funds is most positive on it .

Pure analysts which do not manage funds but give advise only are always all over the place ...thats why I trust the judgement and skills of Fisher funds as they are fund managers too ...they put their money on their picks ...not just give advise

PS : Jarden also highlighted their new market leader status in hospital equipment got well entrenched after this pandemic which will lead to long term growth ahead . Add to that new area of Homecare ventilation which will help them grow their home care side too

KFL appear to have increased their FPH by 500,000 odd shares $14m from December to March

Pretty cool eh

[alokdhir]

KFL appear to have increased their FPH by 500,000 odd shares $14m from December to March

Pretty cool eh

That maybe due to warrants money of $ 90 mil invested in March ...but overall they very positive . They reduced a bit of MFT but kept FPH same ratios after warrant issue . Thumbs up from them

[Old mate]

SP taking a hammering today before results out:mellow:

[winner69]

SP taking a hammering today before results out:mellow:


Was thinking the same ....surely not a bad result on the way

[Rawz]

Gosh hope not.

[macduffy]

Probably not a bad result - just not as good as has been expected.

[alokdhir]

Market consensus expectations ...Revenue over 2050 Mil ....NPAT over 540 Mil .

More important will be forward outlook if company agrees to provide this time ...most probably not as they will say Covid situation still fluid ...

So will need expertise of W69 and others to analyse results and future prospects for us

Salt Funds Core NZ scheme has FPH as largest constituent @ 14% ...they anticipate faster growth ahead !!!

[winner69]

A few bits from BusinessDesk -

Forsyth Barr analysts said investors already know the healthcare exporter will have an exceptional year and will focus on any hints about 2022 earnings.

“We expect it will be difficult for FPH to provide much guidance, however, any insights into clinician behaviour as covid-19 demand has slowed/subsided or country-specific examples to add greater colour is a key area of focus.”

Equity analysts are forecasting 2022 net profit to land anywhere between $359 million and $443m – depending on how covid-19 hospitalisations track during the year – a significant decline from the $545m expected on Thursday.

Sam Trethewey, a portfolio manager at Milford Asset Management, said investors were showing some caution about the strength of the company’s long-term

[moose]

FPH share price is a real head-scratcher that perhaps shows more than anything how illogical the markets have been over the past year or so. They are a fundamentally very sound company with a product line that not only directly "benefits" from the pandemic but also should have a very long tail of increased sales due to the increased market penetration.
Yet the share price has lagged behind many others (FPH was around $20 before COVID) with around a 50-60% increase. Meanwhile other companies have much bigger increases despite being potential "victims" of COVID. Even companies that are basically screwed for the next few years (im looking at you AIRNZ and AIA) have a SP that doesn't appear to reflect reality.
I'm not sure what to make of it - the so-called re-opening stocks are surging but a high quality growth company such as FPH is struggling.

As an example just a few days ago there was a much-awaited clinical trial published that is very supportive for Optiflow - FPH main growth product - but it doesn't even register (The study has shown that use of Optiflow - even without extra oxygen- improves survival in children with lung infections in developing countries (Africa) - think about this, its plausible that Optiflow works without oxygen- given what is happening in India this is huge).

Anyway enough of a rant from me - I still believe that FPH is a hugely undervalued company with a long runway for growth.....

[Old mate]

SP taking another battering today. Someone must know something I dont:eek2::eek2:

[Blue Skies]

SP taking another battering today. Someone must know something I dont:eek2::eek2:


Hopefully this just linked to prospect of increasing NZD

[winner69]

Hopefully this just linked to prospect of increasing NZD

Or growing concerns as to how much less F22 earnings will be?

[Louloubell]

I topped up a bit today. As an investor I don't worry about 2022 and we probably all agree that FPH will go from strength to strength.

[alokdhir]

Eventually SP will follow growth in EPS ....These technical moves of players getting in or out ..(.as its a huge institutional investor stock ) should not worry long term investors . FPH is doing well and will keep doing well . Tomorrow then next week in 3 investor days they will tell us how bright the future is for FPH :D

PS : Todays price action on huge volumes showing some big player getting out ...I understand two brokerages changed its buy rating recently ...but dont know which one !!