View Full Version : Where to invest?
I've not looked at the NZ share market for some time, but my parents have asked me to put some money in the market for them. I'm looking for one of my usual pet stocks - high dividend yield, good growth history and prospects, good ROE and ROC, and trading on a reasonable P/E. Can you suggest some stocks to have a look at?
percy
01-10-2011, 03:20 PM
You may care to look at the following.ABA,AWF,EBO,FRE,SKL,and TUA.
Two large cap are POT and RYM.
Sauce has posted some brilliant posts on RYM on Owner's earnings vs retained earnings thread. Paying modest divie but have used retained earnings to great affect.
ABA,if they can get hearing aid clinics in Asia model right, will have huge growth,as very few deaf Asians wear properly fitted hearing aids.
AWF.contract labour supplier.Easy to grow without need of a lot of capital.Have recently moved into supplying rest home staff labour.
EBO.History of very strong growth.Medical supplys.Growth will come from Aussie expansion.
FRE.Courier parcel delivery.Internet sales have to be delivered.
SKL.Specialist rubber moulding,with componant suppliers.Dairying industry supplier.
TUA.Car auctions,importers second hand cars from Japan.Have their own finnance company,so can also clip that ticket.
POT.NZ Hub port.Situated in the right place,doing the right things.Metro inland port in Auckland services tauranga by rail.
janner
01-10-2011, 09:14 PM
A possible drop in earnings for POT due to Kiwifruit losses Percy ??
The news is not looking good for that industry.
percy
01-10-2011, 09:26 PM
A possible drop in earnings for POT due to Kiwifruit losses Percy ??
The news is not looking good for that industry.
Very bad news for the Kiwifruit industry.POT will have less business from Kiwifruit exports.Agreed.
POT is the hub port for NZ.With larger ships,POT is the ONLY NZ port a lot of these ships will come to, so I expect POT's growth over the next few years will continue.
Penfold
01-10-2011, 09:28 PM
I put my Mum's cash mostly in TD's. What I put in the market I put in RYM, QBE, MVN, FPH, and STU. Luckily I heavily weighted it towards RYM so she has made a tidy return over the last 3 years. Is it really the time for them to be thinking of shares?
shasta
01-10-2011, 09:59 PM
I've not looked at the NZ share market for some time, but my parents have asked me to put some money in the market for them. I'm looking for one of my usual pet stocks - high dividend yield, good growth history and prospects, good ROE and ROC, and trading on a reasonable P/E. Can you suggest some stocks to have a look at?
Any of the Utilities/Energy companies (CEN, TPW), Port companies (POA, POT), Retirement Villages RYM/MET, plus the large caps FBU, SKC
IFT also fits the bill, but given you are after a higher yield, perhaps there bonds are better suited? (same with the bonds on any of the NZX stocks if u like the underlying company)
No mention of listed property trusts such as KIP, GMT, PFI and ANO. More for dividend yield rather than "above average" growth but bought on any dips are better than term deposits.
CAV is another good yield stock.
Perhaps CMO.
craic
02-10-2011, 08:01 AM
At the present time TEL is the backbone of my portfolio. The most recent QUARTERLY dividend gave me $3000, fully inputted which means I can claim some tax back on the tax they paid. For people on pensions, one to three grand every quarter is very useful. I have been there for several years now and all the ups and downs mean little to me as I don't need the capital, I prefer the 10%. I have or have had, some of the others mentioned but none are as good as TEL in my mind. The quarterly dividend confuses some people as they see the cash amount - 7 cents per share or whatever - and compare it to half-yearly dividends for other companies.I recently sold CEN after years of loss and waiting for recovery and bought SKC on the grounds that when times get tough people head for the pokies and the world cup won't do them any harm. So far I am doing well on this one. The sun is shining in Hawkes Bay, my still has produced enough ethanol to preserve a large elephant anf Ireland is still in the world cup.
I recently sold CEN after years of loss and waiting for recovery and bought SKC on the grounds that when times get tough people head for the pokies
Really? When times get tough I still pay my power bill but lower my discretionary spend.
That aside, you are buying a company here, not betting on society.
Sky City in my mind is the worst run company on the NZX (over recent times at least). Do a wee 'what have they done with retained earnings timeline' with these guys from 2005 onwards, its an interesting story. In summary there profits are slightly improving year on year but in that time there equity (pumped cheap $$ in to stay afloat) has around doubled (from memory), and they haven't made a single dollar on that additional equity as it was to used to pay down debt (why is a monopoly in debt to start with?) from poor Aussie assets, all of which are right on the line of being write down.
craic
02-10-2011, 11:08 PM
Buns, I spent a large part of my working life sorting out people who do not reduce their discretionary spending when times get tough - on behalf of the Courts. Many had made off with other peoples cash and from the case histories that I,and others had to write, casinos do well in hard times.Its a fairly well known fact of criminal psychology. I bought my SKC shares a couple or three months ago for 323cps and they are now335cps, an increase of 3.5%
scamper
03-10-2011, 03:29 PM
Should one's (elderly) parents really be considering shares???
There's an old rule of thumb: 100 minus age is a prudent percentage for equities.
I think the rationale is that the older one is, the less time you have for the market to recover, should it slump.
I've recently been horrified that my beloved aged parent shoved 50% of something into equities.
Would like to wring the broker's snout or something.
So, from rule of thumb, if the parents are 80 or so, only 20% of the dosh should be in shares.
Besides, i sense rocky global times ahead, term deposits seem a good idea. Cheers.
Damn. Now I will have to sell some. Or lie about my age.
Actually scamper that rule of thumb is probably quite prudent for those who do not actively follow the market.
RYM, POT and SKT.
Everything else is too inconsistent in it's annual reports to predict anything.
Telecom, Contact, Auckland Airport, Air NZ.... Rubbish.
Joshuatree
04-10-2011, 11:30 PM
Buns, I spent a large part of my working life sorting out people who do not reduce their discretionary spending when times get tough - on behalf of the Courts. Many had made off with other peoples cash and from the case histories that I,and others had to write, casinos do well in hard times.Its a fairly well known fact of criminal psychology. I bought my SKC shares a couple or three months ago for 323cps and they are now335cps, an increase of 3.5%
And now youre doing the same craic making off with other peoples cash that have made off with other peoples cash. Are you too aCriminal by default?
craic
05-10-2011, 08:19 AM
No, just as the Lawyer who takes their money to defend them or the whole range of people who make a living out of dealing with crime.
modandm
17-10-2011, 08:55 PM
i agree with other posters saying that less than 20% of a aged persons portfolio should be in NZ shares. Maybe some aussie shares too to make 30% together. Although shares have more risk at times like these with low pe and decent dividends imho now is the time to buy.
I dislike all of percy's picks for various reasons and my picks would be
Infratil - or IFTHA - I like IFTHA alot.
SkyCity
AIA
Telecom
Fletcher Building
- With these you have some long term investments that you can forget about and enjoy the income. It doesn't sound as though your parents will be following the market closely enough to buy anything smaller or less blue chip.
then look at aussie blue chips and quality income securities
voltage
18-10-2011, 10:31 AM
the problems with asx dividend stocks is that you pay tax on dividends twice. Perhaps look at global companies that pay over 5% dividend like vodafone etc. No more tax to pay
Gonzo
19-10-2011, 04:51 PM
Could I ask why you like IFTHA? I have a truckload of the ords -are the bonds less risky
macduffy
19-10-2011, 05:16 PM
My parents are hardly elderly, my father isnt even retired yet. And I'm pretty sure they are 0% invested in the market at the moment, so anything tucked away in the market is a good start. I was tending towards RYM in the first instance, I'm just looking to see if anything else is better.
I qualify as an "elderly parent" and am happy to say that I'm still almost 50% invested in equities, admittedly a fair chunk of them Australian. A lot of them have been held for several/many years but I hate to think what the effect of inflation would have been on my capital if I hadn't bought BHP at $10, EBO at $3, ANZ at $5 etc. There's no rule that says older people can't hold a proportion of equities, IMO, just a matter of being prudent about it. Bridgecorp? Lombard? any takers?
h2so4
19-10-2011, 05:41 PM
At 60yrs young and not retired he still has 30+ years of investing to do.
May as well get started.:)
60 years is a guess or did I read that somewhere?
GTM 3442
19-10-2011, 06:48 PM
Could I ask why you like IFTHA? I have a truckload of the ords -are the bonds less risky
Probably because you're paying $580 for $1000 worth of capital, effectively giving about 8 1/2% interest rate.
troyvdh
19-10-2011, 07:34 PM
...for what it is worth...Ive been investing in the mkt...for a while......(30 years)......Ive got $40k odd ...in CUE......why....well if the Todd family decide to not only own most of CUE..and have their ex boss run the show...then request that they have more say on the board (like they did today) ...then that is good enough for..me....various folk have rated this company at over $1.40.....
..am i ramping...maybe....but I am just reading and conveying what uis being said....
....hold 130K....cheers
POSSUM THE CAT
19-10-2011, 07:54 PM
Spread it over a lot of companies (ie spread the risk)Like this 68year old Cat
HIDDENGEM
19-10-2011, 08:09 PM
Pl select few areas and do some good research.
Some businesses have business cycles.
When NZ dollar is high import oriented companies will benefitand when NZ dollar is low export oriented companies will benefit.
Think about earnings in the future. In some period commoditycan have volatility.
Remember in good and bad times people can not postponecertain things. They have to eat. Then middle class population in Asia cancreate demand for some products in both New Zealand and Australia in the comingdecade.
Go with companies with less debt. Keep an eye on positiveworking capital, higher ROE and future prospects. Do not buy overvaluedcounters.
NB:
My opinionsare not intended as financial advice. Any hyper-links are not an endorsement& no responsibility is taken for their content. Please do your own research
macduffy
19-10-2011, 09:06 PM
....well if the Todd family decide to not only own most of CUE..and have their ex boss run the show...then request that they have more say on the board (like they did today) ...then that is good enough for..me....various folk have rated this company at over $1.40.....
Note also, though, that the Todd family have millions (billions?) invested in other enterprises. I suspect that CUE is a fairly minor part of their diversified fortune.
modandm
20-10-2011, 10:09 PM
Probably because you're paying $580 for $1000 worth of capital, effectively giving about 8 1/2% interest rate.
Exactly. Yes they are less risky than the ords since bondholders or hybrid security holders (these) rank ahead of ords. I have ords too.
Basically think of IFTHA as a bank account which pays 3 or 4% greater than the market floating interest rate. As rates go up so does the yield of IFTHA. And as rates go up so does the price of IFTHA. At some point in the future you can sell it and close the 'bank account'. There is no guarentee what the price will be when you do sell but it will likely be higher than it is now.
While most fixed interest investments are fixed at 6% or 6.75% etc and become less valuable as interest rates rise (which they will do at some point) IFTHA becomes more valuable. Infratil of course know this and are buying back on market.
Another of similair ilk in Aussie is NABHA
hope this helps
mr.needs
20-10-2011, 10:40 PM
Exactly. Yes they are less risky than the ords since bondholders or hybrid security holders (these) rank ahead of ords. I have ords too.
Basically think of IFTHA as a bank account which pays 3 or 4% greater than the market floating interest rate. As rates go up so does the yield of IFTHA. And as rates go up so does the price of IFTHA. At some point in the future you can sell it and close the 'bank account'. There is no guarentee what the price will be when you do sell but it will likely be higher than it is now.
While most fixed interest investments are fixed at 6% or 6.75% etc and become less valuable as interest rates rise (which they will do at some point) IFTHA becomes more valuable. Infratil of course know this and are buying back on market.
Another of similair ilk in Aussie is NABHA
hope this helps
Can you explain to me why the price will rise when the coupon rate rises?
modandm
28-10-2011, 07:44 AM
yep - but bear with me it can be a little hard to grasp. There are 2 reasons - both to do with credit spread. Credit spread = rate on corp bonds minus cash OCR rate (or risk free rate)
1. As rates rise the credit spread (compensation for risk) narrows - this is just how credit spreads behave historically and makes sense - investors percieve less risk and demand less compensation for risk in a boom (a boom is when rates rise).
2. Main reason - thinking again about credit spreads. As rates rise a higher price of IFTHA is required to keep the credit spread the SAME. The best way to understand this is to work it through in excel. You will find if rates rise and the IFTHA price stays constant the spread rises. This is because the interest is paid on the face value of the security ($100) not $58
All round amazing investment really - prolly best on NZX
percy
28-10-2011, 09:18 AM
You may care to look at the following.ABA,AWF,EBO,FRE,SKL,and TUA.
Two large cap are POT and RYM.
Sauce has posted some brilliant posts on RYM on Owner's earnings vs retained earnings thread. Paying modest divie but have used retained earnings to great affect.
ABA,if they can get hearing aid clinics in Asia model right, will have huge growth,as very few deaf Asians wear properly fitted hearing aids.
AWF.contract labour supplier.Easy to grow without need of a lot of capital.Have recently moved into supplying rest home staff labour.
EBO.History of very strong growth.Medical supplys.Growth will come from Aussie expansion.
FRE.Courier parcel delivery.Internet sales have to be delivered.
SKL.Specialist rubber moulding,with componant suppliers.Dairying industry supplier.
TUA.Car auctions,importers second hand cars from Japan.Have their own finnance company,so can also clip that ticket.
POT.NZ Hub port.Situated in the right place,doing the right things.Metro inland port in Auckland services tauranga by rail.
Update.All companies on the growth path as expected.POT surprised me with their expectation of "full year net earnings to grow by as much as 15%" Comforting in troubled markets to see these companies performing so well.
percy
31-10-2011, 02:20 PM
You may care to look at the following.ABA,AWF,EBO,FRE,SKL,and TUA.
Two large cap are POT and RYM.
Sauce has posted some brilliant posts on RYM on Owner's earnings vs retained earnings thread. Paying modest divie but have used retained earnings to great affect.
ABA,if they can get hearing aid clinics in Asia model right, will have huge growth,as very few deaf Asians wear properly fitted hearing aids.
AWF.contract labour supplier.Easy to grow without need of a lot of capital.Have recently moved into supplying rest home staff labour.
EBO.History of very strong growth.Medical supplys.Growth will come from Aussie expansion.
FRE.Courier parcel delivery.Internet sales have to be delivered.
SKL.Specialist rubber moulding,with componant suppliers.Dairying industry supplier.
TUA.Car auctions,importers second hand cars from Japan.Have their own finnance company,so can also clip that ticket.
POT.NZ Hub port.Situated in the right place,doing the right things.Metro inland port in Auckland services tauranga by rail.
Update.Todays interim from AWF was a cracker.Divie up 31.5%.Nice.
percy
07-12-2011, 12:52 PM
Update.
POT nice winning a big one off POA.POT now trading over $10.
FRE,bolt on aquisition a good fit.
voltage
07-12-2011, 02:17 PM
percy, who would you now choose out of MFT or FRE? Trying to find an entry point for POT.
EBO seems to be in a slow decline? My highest holding is RYM
percy
07-12-2011, 03:51 PM
percy, who would you now choose out of MFT or FRE? Trying to find an entry point for POT.
EBO seems to be in a slow decline? My highest holding is RYM
MFT or FRE ? Don't know.A trust I am on have held FRE since listing,while one of the beneficiaries works for MFT.The reason we have hung onto FRE and not brought MFT is because the PE is lower and the yeild is higher.Maybe FRE is less of a risk.Both are great shares.
POT.PE is getting very rich while yeild is getting worse.I brought in after a spec came right.Thought I had paid too much.With POT NZ's hub port future is good,but cannot advise on entry point. I note they dropped down to about $9.50 a short time ago and ASB had them as a sell as they valued them at $6 or $7.
EBO.Nothing going to happen until next aquisition.PE is modest,while yeild is good.Working with the govt to make health dollar go further.
Any time I have looked to sell down,they come up with a very good result.Have been an excellent company for a good number of years,and being in medical sector they should enjoy a bright future.
Your largest holding is RYM.Good on you.
voltage
07-12-2011, 05:02 PM
thanks percy, you seem to have a good handle of where to invest. Dividend growth stocks are where the focus is. For diversification do you hold global stocks?
percy
07-12-2011, 06:08 PM
thanks percy, you seem to have a good handle of where to invest. Dividend growth stocks are where the focus is. For diversification do you hold global stocks?
No,but I used to.Costs are very high and you had to send your share certificates to US or UK before they would sell them,then there was a long wait for the funds.One in the US I had was HEI Heico Corp,and that would be a fun one to have.The majors like Berkshire hattaway,Yum brands, Coca cola etc you will be OK with, but if your NZ broker holds for you your custodial costs will be high.
I have most of my funds in boring NZ dividend paying stocks.I decided I was not taking enough risks, so
I have approx 10 to 15% of my holdings in small Aussie spec companies.A big spread with not too much in any one company.I have mining,oil and small companies like air,cmg,cof,gxl,hit,ilf,pgc.rob,zgl,bpt. My boring NZ companies have done well tis year,but my Aussie ones have not.I am holding more cash than usual at present.
voltage
08-12-2011, 09:36 AM
Interesting comments percy. You are quite right. Holding global stocks you need to have custodial to hold shares. To much risk with paper certificates. The cost is $50 per stock or .35% of total portfolio per annum and there is the tax to calculate which is complicated. There are however good dividend shares like VOD.
percy
29-12-2011, 09:19 AM
You may care to look at the following.ABA,AWF,EBO,FRE,SKL,and TUA.
Two large cap are POT and RYM.
Sauce has posted some brilliant posts on RYM on Owner's earnings vs retained earnings thread. Paying modest divie but have used retained earnings to great affect.
ABA,if they can get hearing aid clinics in Asia model right, will have huge growth,as very few deaf Asians wear properly fitted hearing aids.
AWF.contract labour supplier.Easy to grow without need of a lot of capital.Have recently moved into supplying rest home staff labour.
EBO.History of very strong growth.Medical supplys.Growth will come from Aussie expansion.
FRE.Courier parcel delivery.Internet sales have to be delivered.
SKL.Specialist rubber moulding,with componant suppliers.Dairying industry supplier.
TUA.Car auctions,importers second hand cars from Japan.Have their own finnance company,so can also clip that ticket.
POT.NZ Hub port.Situated in the right place,doing the right things.Metro inland port in Auckland services tauranga by rail.
Just when I thought EBO were "drifting away" they announce a brilliant acqusition with Masterpet.This growth company will give EBO strong earnings growth outside medical area.With Masterpet being in Aussie as well as NZ it is very positive for EBO shareholders.
karen1
29-12-2011, 12:37 PM
What about OIC, Opus?
ratkin
29-12-2011, 02:58 PM
Interesting comments percy. You are quite right. Holding global stocks you need to have custodial to hold shares. To much risk with paper certificates. The cost is $50 per stock or .35% of total portfolio per annum and there is the tax to calculate which is complicated. There are however good dividend shares like VOD.
I find it easier just to put money into listed trusts , for example MFF in Australia , have a conservative bunch of bluechips including yum brands etc. They dont hedge their currency so the high aussie dollar has counted against them , but they a good way to have exposure to some of the worlds biggest and best without direct ownership
janner
29-12-2011, 05:51 PM
Hmmm..
As some one that has very litttle trust ... Of even myself.. I agree with most of Percy's safe picks..
ABA.. Has in " IF " in it..
FRE.. Also an " IF " If the world turns to custard.. Internet sales will drop.
TUA.. New import regulations " May " slow imports .. But .. They will be dealing in a higher dollar sales bracket.
So commision will be higher..
Which leaves you in between a Rock and a Hard Place situation..
Admiral Faragut ( US NAVY ).. Damn the torpedos.. Full speed ahead..
Or.
Nike.. Just do it..
In the end it is only you that makes the move.
percy
29-12-2011, 08:22 PM
Karen1.OIC seems to be a good idea,good company,but had to have a queit laugh to myself.I own a few COF in Aussie.They are very positive that they have a good deal selling their rail division to OIC.OIC are very positive that they have a very good deal in buying the rail division off COF..Yeah right.!! Or is it one of those win win situations we hear about.?
Ratkin.Thanks for MFF.Looking at a chart I am surprised you did not include one of your fine charts.Looks an excellent way to buy global without the head aches.!
Janner,Today I agree with you there are a lot of ifs.Maybe too many, and we all may be better off sitting on cash.I myself am sitting on more cash than usual,and over the last couple of months I have only been a seller of shares.
janner
29-12-2011, 08:52 PM
Perc..
" and we all may be better off sitting on cash. "..
That is what the whole world is doing.... :-))
percy
18-03-2012, 11:37 AM
You may care to look at the following.ABA,AWF,EBO,FRE,SKL,and TUA.
Two large cap are POT and RYM.
Sauce has posted some brilliant posts on RYM on Owner's earnings vs retained earnings thread. Paying modest divie but have used retained earnings to great affect.
ABA,if they can get hearing aid clinics in Asia model right, will have huge growth,as very few deaf Asians wear properly fitted hearing aids.
AWF.contract labour supplier.Easy to grow without need of a lot of capital.Have recently moved into supplying rest home staff labour.
EBO.History of very strong growth.Medical supplys.Growth will come from Aussie expansion.
FRE.Courier parcel delivery.Internet sales have to be delivered.
SKL.Specialist rubber moulding,with componant suppliers.Dairying industry supplier.
TUA.Car auctions,importers second hand cars from Japan.Have their own finnance company,so can also clip that ticket.
POT.NZ Hub port.Situated in the right place,doing the right things.Metro inland port in Auckland services tauranga by rail.
Well 6 months on and the portfolio is performing well.NOT counting divies the portfolio is up 13.77% while NZX index is up8.5%.
The star has been FRE up 31.3% while ABA has let us down by being up 2.4%.
Animeart
25-03-2012, 10:33 PM
I reckon the maket here is overdue for a major shakeup as it seems unreasonably high in the face of what's happening in Euro and china. The high NZD is cusioning against a hard landing, else more people might be struggling against the cost of living.
upside_umop
25-03-2012, 10:54 PM
Corporate cash in the USA is higher than ever. Was watching Bloomberg the other day (on my new iPad :t_up:) and they reckon that dividends in the US have increased 10% YoY and that substantial buybacks will be announced more and more.....there is empirical evidence that markets respond well to buybacks.
But as you say Animeart, there's Europe and China. I think Europe will scrape though bouncing in and out of recession but China has potential to slow a few things down.
cloggs
27-03-2012, 01:15 PM
MFF mentioned earlier by Ratkin is worth a second look. It is the basket of international bluechip companies like Proctor Gamble etc. They disclose every week to the ASX the NTA per MFF share. That NTA is always about 12-13 cents higher than the price you are paying for MFF and they have gone up quite nicely, a 10% rise since Ratkin mentioned them. They have also been buying back their own shares over the last year at an average of 64c/s, obviously because it is a cheaper way of buying the basket of shares that the MFF shares are made up of.
macduffy
27-03-2012, 03:20 PM
I don't have a particular view on MFF but it should be borne in mind that there are very few, if any, investment funds or investment companies that trade at or above NTA. Briefly, perhaps, when market conditions are right and all the stars are aligned! Usually, they're priced at a discount such as MFF is currently.
That said, there is certainly a place in most portfolios for a modest exposure to international equities and the safest way to achieve that is through a reputable, well-performed international fund. IMO.
Kingfisher (KFL) is similar with a basket of NZ shares (top 5 holdings are Ryman Healthcare 14%, Mainfreight 13%, NZX 7%, Metlifecare 7% and Freightways 7%). They are trading at a discount to NAV of around 16%, have a share buyback running and pay dividends of around 9% (2% per quarter of its average NAV).
The share price this year hasn't risen as fast as the NAV...
percy
23-08-2012, 07:23 PM
You may care to look at the following.ABA,AWF,EBO,FRE,SKL,and TUA.
Two large cap are POT and RYM.
Sauce has posted some brilliant posts on RYM on Owner's earnings vs retained earnings thread. Paying modest divie but have used retained earnings to great affect.
ABA,if they can get hearing aid clinics in Asia model right, will have huge growth,as very few deaf Asians wear properly fitted hearing aids.
AWF.contract labour supplier.Easy to grow without need of a lot of capital.Have recently moved into supplying rest home staff labour.
EBO.History of very strong growth.Medical supplys.Growth will come from Aussie expansion.
FRE.Courier parcel delivery.Internet sales have to be delivered.
SKL.Specialist rubber moulding,with componant suppliers.Dairying industry supplier.
TUA.Car auctions,importers second hand cars from Japan.Have their own finnance company,so can also clip that ticket.
POT.NZ Hub port.Situated in the right place,doing the right things.Metro inland port in Auckland services tauranga by rail.
Not quiet a year on and "all is well".
percy
10-10-2012, 07:43 PM
You may care to look at the following.ABA,AWF,EBO,FRE,SKL,and TUA.
Two large cap are POT and RYM.
Sauce has posted some brilliant posts on RYM on Owner's earnings vs retained earnings thread. Paying modest divie but have used retained earnings to great affect.
ABA,if they can get hearing aid clinics in Asia model right, will have huge growth,as very few deaf Asians wear properly fitted hearing aids.
AWF.contract labour supplier.Easy to grow without need of a lot of capital.Have recently moved into supplying rest home staff labour.
EBO.History of very strong growth.Medical supplys.Growth will come from Aussie expansion.
FRE.Courier parcel delivery.Internet sales have to be delivered.
SKL.Specialist rubber moulding,with componant suppliers.Dairying industry supplier.
TUA.Car auctions,importers second hand cars from Japan.Have their own finnance company,so can also clip that ticket.
POT.NZ Hub port.Situated in the right place,doing the right things.Metro inland port in Auckland services tauranga by rail.
Well a year on and we can see how the portfolio performed.Very well.
ABA was $4 .10 Today $5.60 +36% plus divies.
AWF was $2.00 Today $2.20 +11% plus divies.
EBO was $6.80 Today $8.23 +21.1% plus divies.
FRE was $2.97 Today $4.40 +48.1% plus divies.
SKL was $1.24 Today $1.69 +36.29% plus divies.
TUA was $1.35 Today $1.80 +33.33% plus divies.
POT was $9.65 Today $12.60 +30.5% plus divies.
RYM was $2.52 Today $4.11 +63% plus divies.
Overall average + 34.91% PLUS DIVIES.
janner
10-10-2012, 07:48 PM
Think that your FRE Today price is a little exaggerated Perc but all the others ... you have done well..
percy
10-10-2012, 07:54 PM
Think that your FRE Today price is a little exaggerated Perc but all the others ... you have done well..
Yes ,fixed up now thanks.Was thinking the divies could have worked out at APPROX at 5.09% which would take the return to APPROX 40%.!!!!
Talk about trying to keep up with the Janners .lol.
voltage
10-10-2012, 07:57 PM
Well done Percy. What would you change for the next 12 months?
percy
10-10-2012, 08:04 PM
Well done Percy. What would you change for the next 12 months?
I think I am like most posters on sharetrader;worried a lot of stocks are very expensive,hard to find under valued stocks,scared to sell anything,because bank returns are very low.
The only change,would be to sell half AWF and TUA and buy HNZ.[At present HNZ is not paying a divie,divie policy to be announce at AGM on 30/11/12]
troyvdh
10-10-2012, 08:14 PM
.....well done percy....I have at various times have felt/experinced the same euthoria...(?)....may i suggest that while % rates remain low....the SM ..will florish....again well done...
percy
10-10-2012, 08:37 PM
.....well done percy....I have at various times have felt/experinced the same euthoria...(?)....may i suggest that while % rates remain low....the SM ..will florish....again well done...
Thanks troyvdh.As always I appreciate your comments,in particular on % rates remaining low.
janner
10-10-2012, 11:26 PM
Percy.. SHUT UP.. HNZ IS OUR SECRET..
modandm
11-10-2012, 06:45 AM
for once I agree with Percy. The NZ market has been on a great bull run and looking around I see very little value.
Large cap stocks like RBD and FBU which I liked are now up 20-30% too. The smaller riskier companies percy liked have done even better.
Anyway looking for stocks that havn't run up massively and are still on reasonable valuations SKC is the standout right now for me - and I don't own it. In fact im 100% invested in a single NZ stock, which shall remain nameless since I am buying more.
BIRMANBOY
11-10-2012, 08:41 AM
Wow...100% in one stock...that shows someone with BELIEF....wouldnt be a certain airline would it?;)
for once I agree with Percy. The NZ market has been on a great bull run and looking around I see very little value.
Large cap stocks like RBD and FBU which I liked are now up 20-30% too. The smaller riskier companies percy liked have done even better.
Anyway looking for stocks that havn't run up massively and are still on reasonable valuations SKC is the standout right now for me - and I don't own it. In fact im 100% invested in a single NZ stock, which shall remain nameless since I am buying more.
modandm
11-10-2012, 09:17 AM
Wow...100% in one stock...that shows someone with BELIEF....wouldnt be a certain airline would it?;)
Now that would be silly...
BIRMANBOY
11-10-2012, 12:27 PM
Reminds me of the song form the musical....starring Percy..
Ah gits weary an' sick of tryin'
Ah'm tired of livin' an' skeered of dyin'
But ol' man river
He jes' keeps rolling' along
Patience grasshopper...or Joe in this case..or Percy even....plenty of juicy buys to be had as soon as the inevitable correction occurs. Money burning a hole in your pocket??? Confucious say take money out and put out fire..also saving trousers and objects underneath.
I think I am like most posters on sharetrader;worried a lot of stocks are very expensive,hard to find under valued stocks,scared to sell anything,because bank returns are very low.
The only change,would be to sell half AWF and TUA and buy HNZ.[At present HNZ is not paying a divie,divie policy to be announce at AGM on 30/11/12]
ratkin
11-10-2012, 12:57 PM
Reminds me of the song form the musical....starring Percy..
Ah gits weary an' sick of tryin'
Ah'm tired of livin' an' skeered of dyin'
But ol' man river
He jes' keeps rolling' along
Patience grasshopper...or Joe in this case..or Percy even....plenty of juicy buys to be had as soon as the inevitable correction occurs. Money burning a hole in your pocket??? Confucious say take money out and put out fire..also saving trousers and objects underneath.
Too true , i havent bought any long term holdings since around february , luckily they were Comvita Trade me and Ebos. Not buying anything else until a decent correction , big proportion of my holdings were bought in 2009. I was called an idiot at the time, but not looking such an idiot now , as most those stocks have doubled or more and are paying healthy dividends
percy
11-10-2012, 01:16 PM
Reminds me of the song form the musical....starring Percy..
Ah gits weary an' sick of tryin'
Ah'm tired of livin' an' skeered of dyin'
But ol' man river
He jes' keeps rolling' along
Patience grasshopper...or Joe in this case..or Percy even....plenty of juicy buys to be had as soon as the inevitable correction occurs. Money burning a hole in your pocket??? Confucious say take money out and put out fire..also saving trousers and objects underneath.
Great quote,just rolling' along.
Not a lot of money burning a hole,as most is in the market "rolling' along".
percy
27-03-2013, 10:39 AM
You may care to look at the following.ABA,AWF,EBO,FRE,SKL,and TUA.
Two large cap are POT and RYM.
Sauce has posted some brilliant posts on RYM on Owner's earnings vs retained earnings thread. Paying modest divie but have used retained earnings to great affect.
ABA,if they can get hearing aid clinics in Asia model right, will have huge growth,as very few deaf Asians wear properly fitted hearing aids.
AWF.contract labour supplier.Easy to grow without need of a lot of capital.Have recently moved into supplying rest home staff labour.
EBO.History of very strong growth.Medical supplys.Growth will come from Aussie expansion.
FRE.Courier parcel delivery.Internet sales have to be delivered.
SKL.Specialist rubber moulding,with componant suppliers.Dairying industry supplier.
TUA.Car auctions,importers second hand cars from Japan.Have their own finnance company,so can also clip that ticket.
POT.NZ Hub port.Situated in the right place,doing the right things.Metro inland port in Auckland services tauranga by rail.
I posted the above on01-10-2011.Great performers.Today I would most probably change HNZ for SKL as I expect SKL earnings to be flat for a year or two.Good companies just get better.
Cool Bear
28-03-2013, 12:29 PM
I posted the above on01-10-2011.Great performers.Today I would most probably change HNZ for SKL as I expect SKL earnings to be flat for a year or two.Good companies just get better.
You did well indeed and I presume you did sell half of AWF and TUA to buy HNZ re your post 55 in Oct? That would have done well too! Looks like NZ mkt still have some way to go.
Was thinking late last year that it looks topish but luckily did not move into cash that much Was about 60% in but now with the price rises since then plus topping up with more HNZ in Feb (at 69 :t_up:), more like 75% in. If I go with the rule of thumb (Scamper in post #11) of 100 less age, I will have to suddenly get a whole lot younger - to be more like my children ages.
percy
28-03-2013, 01:11 PM
You did well indeed and I presume you did sell half of AWF and TUA to buy HNZ re your post 55 in Oct? That would have done well too! Looks like NZ mkt still have some way to go.
Was thinking late last year that it looks topish but luckily did not move into cash that much Was about 60% in but now with the price rises since then plus topping up with more HNZ in Feb (at 69 :t_up:), more like 75% in. If I go with the rule of thumb (Scamper in post #11) of 100 less age, I will have to suddenly get a whole lot younger - to be more like my children ages.
I kept getting nervous last year.So sold down on a number of shares,and added more companies.HNZ I have kept adding to,and feel it is still very much well undervalued.
Looks like AIR another one to look at.
percy
14-08-2013, 07:42 PM
You may care to look at the following.ABA,AWF,EBO,FRE,SKL,and TUA.
Two large cap are POT and RYM.
Sauce has posted some brilliant posts on RYM on Owner's earnings vs retained earnings thread. Paying modest divie but have used retained earnings to great affect.
ABA,if they can get hearing aid clinics in Asia model right, will have huge growth,as very few deaf Asians wear properly fitted hearing aids.
AWF.contract labour supplier.Easy to grow without need of a lot of capital.Have recently moved into supplying rest home staff labour.
EBO.History of very strong growth.Medical supplys.Growth will come from Aussie expansion.
FRE.Courier parcel delivery.Internet sales have to be delivered.
SKL.Specialist rubber moulding,with componant suppliers.Dairying industry supplier.
TUA.Car auctions,importers second hand cars from Japan.Have their own finnance company,so can also clip that ticket.
POT.NZ Hub port.Situated in the right place,doing the right things.Metro inland port in Auckland services tauranga by rail.
Nearly two years on, and all is well.I did update saying selling some or all SKL and putting the funds into HNZ.HNZ looks set to fly!!!
jimmyco
19-08-2013, 09:19 PM
Nearly two years on, and all is well.I did update saying selling some or all SKL and putting the funds into HNZ.HNZ looks set to fly!!!
percy, would you still make the same selections for someone entering the market now?
I'm fairly new to trading and just taking my time to see what is around
percy
19-08-2013, 09:42 PM
percy, would you still make the same selections for someone entering the market now?
I'm fairly new to trading and just taking my time to see what is around
Great question!!!
ABA. Possible takeover.Price appears very high.NO I would not buy at this price.I hold and will continue to hold,until it all plays out.
AWF.A liitle bit of weakness in the share price.Very well run company.YES I would buy,once the share price starts to move up again.
EBO.Again a little bit of weakness.I brought a few more at $9.90.BUY, share price will double in the next 3 or 4 years.
FRE.Again a very well run company.BUY.
SKL.Hold off buying until after the result is out.Due shortly.I did post to sell down SKL and replace with HNZ.
HNZ.BUY<BUY,VERY STRONG BUY.Next year will be fantastic.
TUA.BUY.Finance side is growing earnings.
POT.NZ's best run port.BUY.
I also like STU,who I think will do well with CHCH rebuild and strengthing NZ ecomony.BUY.
SUM/May be better value than RYM at present.Careful buy.What careful buy means, is that I think there is plenty of growth in the retirement sector,however I am not sure whether SUM and RYM share prices have got ahead of themselves.
baller18
19-08-2013, 09:49 PM
EBO price will double in 3-4 years? Would you care to elaborate please percy?
jimmyco
19-08-2013, 09:56 PM
Thanks percy. I have kept an eye on rym for a year or so and finally got in earlier this year, have never looked back (though regularly wished i had got in earlier). I think that sky is the limit for them!
I will have to do some homework on HNZ and FRE I think!
Are you expecting good news from EBO tomorrow, which would trigger share price uptrend?
percy
19-08-2013, 09:58 PM
baller18,EBO;
As each acquisition over the last 20 years has speed up growth the latest huge acquisition will continue this tradition.
The latest acquisition will work wonders.
I think you will find the EBO thread a good read.
percy
19-08-2013, 10:03 PM
Thanks percy. I have kept an eye on rym for a year or so and finally got in earlier this year, have never looked back (though regularly wished i had got in earlier). I think that sky is the limit for them!
I will have to do some homework on HNZ and FRE I think!
Are you expecting good news from EBO tomorrow, which would trigger share price uptrend?
No.They just keep doing the right things.Just such a well run company.
They are of a size now that both NZ and Aussie instos and more brokers will follow them.Only about 140 mil shares on issue.
percy
19-08-2013, 10:07 PM
Thanks percy. I have kept an eye on rym for a year or so and finally got in earlier this year, have never looked back (though regularly wished i had got in earlier). I think that sky is the limit for them!
I will have to do some homework on HNZ and FRE I think!
Are you expecting good news from EBO tomorrow, which would trigger share price uptrend?
FRE have been a well run company for years.The shares are never cheap.
HNZ.If you are not sure wait until 1st November and read the company presentations that will be given at the agm.AGM starts at 3 pm.
percy
05-02-2015, 07:39 AM
In hindsight it looks as though I had good foresight on this thread !!!!!!
percy
22-09-2015, 05:44 PM
You may care to look at the following.ABA,AWF,EBO,FRE,SKL,and TUA.
Two large cap are POT and RYM.
Sauce has posted some brilliant posts on RYM on Owner's earnings vs retained earnings thread. Paying modest divie but have used retained earnings to great affect.
ABA,if they can get hearing aid clinics in Asia model right, will have huge growth,as very few deaf Asians wear properly fitted hearing aids.
AWF.contract labour supplier.Easy to grow without need of a lot of capital.Have recently moved into supplying rest home staff labour.
EBO.History of very strong growth.Medical supplys.Growth will come from Aussie expansion.
FRE.Courier parcel delivery.Internet sales have to be delivered.
SKL.Specialist rubber moulding,with componant suppliers.Dairying industry supplier.
TUA.Car auctions,importers second hand cars from Japan.Have their own finnance company,so can also clip that ticket.
POT.NZ Hub port.Situated in the right place,doing the right things.Metro inland port in Auckland services tauranga by rail.
Time to update.
...............Price on 1/10/2011.............Price today.................% increase.WITHOUT DIVIDENDS.!
ABA......................$4.06.................... ..$8.10......................199%
AWF......................$1.90.................... ..$2.25.......................18.4%
EBO.......................$5.70................... ..$11.78......................107%
FRE........................$3.33.................. ....$5.55.......................66%
SKL.........................$1.25................. .....$1.34......................7%
POT.........................$9.60................. .....$17.05....................178%
RYM.........................$2.61................. .....$7.38......................183%..
Average share price increase is 108%.in four years.In those four years shareholder's have enjoyed increasing dividends,while their portfolio has more than doubled.
Sorry I can't work out the figures for TUA as they were taken over by TNR.
The bottom line is had you invested $100,000 at the bank you would have received about 3% or 4 % on your money and still have the $100,000,while had you brought the above shares you would still have received approx. 3% or 4% dividends while your capital has more than doubled.!!
So lets add HNZ to the list at today's price of $1.13 and see how the "portfolio" fares over the next four years.!
BobbyMorocco
22-09-2015, 06:10 PM
Time to update.
...............Price on 1/10/2011.............Price today.................% increase.WITHOUT DIVIDENDS.!
ABA......................$4.06.................... ..$8.10......................199%
AWF......................$1.90.................... ..$2.25.......................18.4%
EBO.......................$5.70................... ..$11.78......................107%
FRE........................$3.33.................. ....$5.55.......................66%
SKL.........................$1.25................. .....$1.34......................7%
POT.........................$9.60................. .....$17.05....................178%
RYM.........................$2.61................. .....$7.38......................183%..
Average share price increase is 108%.in four years.In those four years shareholder's have enjoyed increasing dividends,while their portfolio has more than doubled.
Sorry I can't work out the figures for TUA as they were taken over by TNR.
The bottom line is had you invested $100,000 at the bank you would have received about 3% or 4 % on your money and still have the $100,000,while had you brought the above shares you would still have received approx. 3% or 4% dividends while your capital has more than doubled.!!
So lets add HNZ to the list at today's price of $1.13 and see how the "portfolio" fares over the next four years.!
Your sums are not quite correct there Percy. ABA is 100% increase, not 199% and POT is 78% increase, not 178%..... that takes the average to 80%. Still it is mighty fine returns. Well done!
percy
22-09-2015, 06:14 PM
Your sums are not quite correct there Percy. ABA is 100% increase, not 199% and POT is 78% increase, not 178%..... that takes the average to 80%. Still it is mighty fine returns. Well done!
Thank you.Yes more than happy with 80% plus divies.
Wish I could work out the profit from the TNR takeover of TUA.It it would improve the result.[maybe nearer the 100%?]
percy
23-09-2015, 08:48 AM
The next four years.
We will drop the following,ABA,not sure of future prospects,AWF I have doubts they will achieve the eps growth they are wanting,POT,seems to have lower eps growth than what I want. TUA were taken over by TNR and because of their high debt I have replaced them with HNZ.Having grown our capital by over 80% I think we can add a couple of extra companies to our solid diversified portfolio.
AWK.$3.30.Supplying freight planes to growing sector.Lower NZ $ will help earnings .
EBO.$11.78.Retain as reasons for buying remain intact.Well managed,in the growing health sector.
FRE.$5.55.Retain as reasons for buying remain intact.Well managed in growing express parcel sector.Internet sales must be delivered quickly.
MEL,$2.23,replaces POT.Low capex with high depreciation means strong cash flow resulting in high dividends.Low capital growth.
RYM.$7.38.Retain as reasons for buying remain.Best operator in the growing retirement sector.
SKL.$1.34,Retain as reasons for buying remain.Most earnings are outside NZ.Lower NZ$ will boast earnings.
HNZ.$1.13.Growing bank achieving what they say they will do.Strong balance sheet,modest ratios and growing dividend.
SCL.$1.98.Apples and coolstores.More profitable varieties coming through.Exporter,well managed.Room for growth.
SEK.$3.35.Kiwi fruit making a strong recovery from PSA.Growth prospects here and Australia make growth prospects interesting.
TIL,$1.52,Trilogy beauty products are of a high standard.Company is poised for higher growth with exports.
The portfolio is looking for dividend yield of 3% to 4% with the capacity to grow to 6% to 8% p.a over the next four years.It may not achieve over 80% capital growth,but you never know with "very good" shares.They usually surprise on the upside.
disc.I do not own FRE,although a trust I am involved with does.The rest I hold.
percy
20-10-2015, 08:52 AM
Well only a month on and all is well.
The stand out performers have been EBO rising from $11.78 to $13.52,and HNZ rising from $1.13 to $1.23.
Pleasing to see RYM appears to have finally started a new up trend.
We too have been enjoying see some very nice divies hit the bank.
No need to alter the portfolio.and with some agms coming up the portfolio remains "well positioned."
disc.I took DRP for my EBO and HNZ while the wife took cash.
percy
12-12-2015, 10:49 AM
So where are we after just under 3 months.
AWK.$3.30 now $3.80 plus 15%
EBO,$11.78 now $14 30 plus 21%
FRE,$5.55 now $6.25 up 12.6%
MEL,$2.23 now $2.32 up 4%
RYM,$$7.38 now $8,24 up 11.6%
SKL,$1.34 now $1.50 up 11.9%
HNZ,$1.13 now $1.34 up 18.5%
SCL,$1.95 now $2.43 up 24.6%
SEK $3.35 now $3.30 DOWN,I got one wrong!!! down a whooping 1.5%
TIL,$1.52 now $2.26 up 48.6%
We have also enjoyed some juicy dividends.
Will make no changes to the portfolio.
Disc.I have brought back into TNR for my own portfolio,and sold half of my TIL holding @$2.454.
So average increase works out at 16.63% plus divies in under 3 months.!
Excellent 3months Percy, have you sold down any?
percy
12-12-2015, 11:05 AM
Excellent 3months Percy, have you sold down any?
Yes.I sold half my TIL.
I omitted the fact I have also sold down some SEK,and added to my wife's CVT holding.
I did buy back into TNR for both our portfolios.
I also brought AIR, as well as adding to my AWK and HNZ holdings.
Sideshow Bob
12-12-2015, 01:10 PM
Yes.I sold half my TIL.
I omitted the fact I have also sold down some SEK,and added to my wife's CVT holding.
I did buy back into TNR for both our portfolios.
I also brought AIR, as well as adding to my AWK and HNZ holdings.
Very well done Percy,:t_up:
stevevai1983
12-12-2015, 03:07 PM
Recommend ETFs: DIV
It's safer than individual stocks
TICKER
ISSUER
INDUSTRY SECTOR
WEIGHTING
SPK
Spark New Zealand Limited
Media & Communications
11.88%
FBU
Fletcher Building Limited
Building Materials & Construction
9.34%
MEL
Meridian Energy Limited
Energy Processing
7.99%
AIA
Auckland International Airport Limited
Ports
7.25%
CEN
Contact Energy Limited
Energy Processing
5.42%
SKC
SKYCITY Entertainment Group Limited
Leisure & Tourism
5.16%
MRP
Mighty River Power Limited
Energy Processing
4.81%
SKT
Sky Network Television Limited
Media & Communications
4.75%
GNE
Genesis Energy Limited
Energy Processing
4.12%
AIR
Air New Zealand Limited
Transport
3.91
bohemian
12-12-2015, 03:13 PM
That is impressive Percy. I am going to stay with my tried and true, mainly POT, FPH, RYM et al but I am seriously considering buying more ZEL. The talk is that oil could drop into the 20s and I read that even now storage and inventory is becoming a problem. For ZEL holders doesn't that mean that ZED has more room to move on it's margins. I am aware of it's business with the commerce commission but I am optimistic about that outcome. Craig's have $7.25 on this.
percy
12-12-2015, 03:40 PM
That is impressive Percy. I am going to stay with my tried and true, mainly POT, FPH, RYM et al but I am seriously considering buying more ZEL. The talk is that oil could drop into the 20s and I read that even now storage and inventory is becoming a problem. For ZEL holders doesn't that mean that ZED has more room to move on it's margins. I am aware of it's business with the commerce commission but I am optimistic about that outcome. Craig's have $7.25 on this.
Your tried and true will continue to reward you.
We still hold FPH and RYM.
ZEL,Thanks for the heads up,will watch with interest.
I guess you are like me, and just very surprised how well our tried and true stocks have performed over the past two or more years.
percy
12-12-2015, 03:51 PM
Recommend ETFs: DIV
It's safer than individual stocks
TICKER
ISSUER
INDUSTRY SECTOR
WEIGHTING
SPK
Spark New Zealand Limited
Media & Communications
11.88%
FBU
Fletcher Building Limited
Building Materials & Construction
9.34%
MEL
Meridian Energy Limited
Energy Processing
7.99%
AIA
Auckland International Airport Limited
Ports
7.25%
CEN
Contact Energy Limited
Energy Processing
5.42%
SKC
SKYCITY Entertainment Group Limited
Leisure & Tourism
5.16%
MRP
Mighty River Power Limited
Energy Processing
4.81%
SKT
Sky Network Television Limited
Media & Communications
4.75%
GNE
Genesis Energy Limited
Energy Processing
4.12%
AIR
Air New Zealand Limited
Transport
3.91
Now that looks a pretty good solid portfolio to me.
It will be interesting to see whether it, or my more aggressive portfolio ,performs the best over the next couple of years.
For future reference I have put in yesterday's closing sp.SPK $3.18 ,FBU $7.00,MEL $2.32,AIA $5.34,CEN $4.72,SKC $4.25,MRP $2.72,SKT$4.32,GNE$1.92,AIR $2.85.
percy
21-01-2016, 05:44 PM
The next four years.
We will drop the following,ABA,not sure of future prospects,AWF I have doubts they will achieve the eps growth they are wanting,POT,seems to have lower eps growth than what I want. TUA were taken over by TNR and because of their high debt I have replaced them with HNZ.Having grown our capital by over 80% I think we can add a couple of extra companies to our solid diversified portfolio.
AWK.$3.30.Supplying freight planes to growing sector.Lower NZ $ will help earnings .
EBO.$11.78.Retain as reasons for buying remain intact.Well managed,in the growing health sector.
FRE.$5.55.Retain as reasons for buying remain intact.Well managed in growing express parcel sector.Internet sales must be delivered quickly.
MEL,$2.23,replaces POT.Low capex with high depreciation means strong cash flow resulting in high dividends.Low capital growth.
RYM.$7.38.Retain as reasons for buying remain.Best operator in the growing retirement sector.
SKL.$1.34,Retain as reasons for buying remain.Most earnings are outside NZ.Lower NZ$ will boast earnings.
HNZ.$1.13.Growing bank achieving what they say they will do.Strong balance sheet,modest ratios and growing dividend.
SCL.$1.98.Apples and coolstores.More profitable varieties coming through.Exporter,well managed.Room for growth.
SEK.$3.35.Kiwi fruit making a strong recovery from PSA.Growth prospects here and Australia make growth prospects interesting.
TIL,$1.52,Trilogy beauty products are of a high standard.Company is poised for higher growth with exports.
The portfolio is looking for dividend yield of 3% to 4% with the capacity to grow to 6% to 8% p.a over the next four years.It may not achieve over 80% capital growth,but you never know with "very good" shares.They usually surprise on the upside.
disc.I do not own FRE,although a trust I am involved with does.The rest I hold.
So how are we tracking in these "volatile" markets?
AWK.$3.30......today $3.98.
EBO.$11.79........" ...$13.78.
FRE.$5.55..........."...$6.26.
MEL.$2.23..........."...$2.35.
RYM.$7.38..........."...$8.08.
SKL.$1.34............'..$1.46
HNZ,$1.13Now HBL.$1.26
SCL.$1.98.........Today$2.25
SEK.$3.35..........."..$3.65
TIL.$1.52............"..$2.85.
In the meantime we have enjoyed some excellent divies.From memory MEL,RYM,SKL,and SCL.
So no need for any changes.Steady as she goes.
bohemian
21-01-2016, 07:22 PM
I think I might follow you more Pery. I have most of what you have but about 1/4 of my portfolio invested on the US which is doing my head in. I don't understand why it's so volatile despite solid earnings and a benign economy.
macduffy
21-01-2016, 08:04 PM
One reason would be that the wider US market is still trading above longterm average P/E's, despite recent falls - and in "nervous" times.
:ohmy:
percy
10-02-2016, 09:08 AM
So how are we tracking in these "volatile" markets?
AWK.$3.30......today $3.98.
EBO.$11.79........" ...$13.78.
FRE.$5.55..........."...$6.26.
MEL.$2.23..........."...$2.35.
RYM.$7.38..........."...$8.08.
SKL.$1.34............'..$1.46
HNZ,$1.13Now HBL.$1.26
SCL.$1.98.........Today$2.25
SEK.$3.35..........."..$3.65
TIL.$1.52............"..$2.85.
In the meantime we have enjoyed some excellent divies.From memory MEL,RYM,SKL,and SCL.
So no need for any changes.Steady as she goes.
Well the reporting season is about to start.
At this stage I am expecting,good solid results from the companies in the portfolio.Maybe SCL will be the surprise
Will look to update after the results.
I think EBO and SCL will both have better than expected results:)
Pricey
10-02-2016, 09:08 PM
26th of Feb will be a fantastic day, both AIR and SCL results out. TIL and THL will perform strongly too. Plenty to be happy about outside of tech.
Its 25th for both AIR (1H) and SCL (FY) by the way...
Beagle
11-02-2016, 09:39 AM
We have clear breaks below the 100 day MA for good stocks that should be benefiting from the lower $Kiwi like NZR and SKL. Technical investors will be concerned and I am too. What we are seeing here is evidence "the bear" appears to have real teeth and claws. I think a decent sized cash allocation isn't a bad thing during uncertain times like this.
James108
11-02-2016, 09:45 AM
We have clear breaks below the 100 day MA for good stocks that should be benefiting from the lower $Kiwi like NZR and SKL. Technical investors will be concerned and I am too. What we are seeing here is evidence "the bear" appears to have real teeth and claws. I think a decent sized cash allocation isn't a bad thing during uncertain times like this.
SKL drop could be because their main markets are oil and dairy?
percy
26-02-2016, 09:58 PM
The next four years.
We will drop the following,ABA,not sure of future prospects,AWF I have doubts they will achieve the eps growth they are wanting,POT,seems to have lower eps growth than what I want. TUA were taken over by TNR and because of their high debt I have replaced them with HNZ.Having grown our capital by over 80% I think we can add a couple of extra companies to our solid diversified portfolio.
AWK.$3.30.Supplying freight planes to growing sector.Lower NZ $ will help earnings .
EBO.$11.78.Retain as reasons for buying remain intact.Well managed,in the growing health sector.
FRE.$5.55.Retain as reasons for buying remain intact.Well managed in growing express parcel sector.Internet sales must be delivered quickly.
MEL,$2.23,replaces POT.Low capex with high depreciation means strong cash flow resulting in high dividends.Low capital growth.
RYM.$7.38.Retain as reasons for buying remain.Best operator in the growing retirement sector.
SKL.$1.34,Retain as reasons for buying remain.Most earnings are outside NZ.Lower NZ$ will boast earnings.
HNZ.$1.13.Growing bank achieving what they say they will do.Strong balance sheet,modest ratios and growing dividend.
SCL.$1.98.Apples and coolstores.More profitable varieties coming through.Exporter,well managed.Room for growth.
SEK.$3.35.Kiwi fruit making a strong recovery from PSA.Growth prospects here and Australia make growth prospects interesting.
TIL,$1.52,Trilogy beauty products are of a high standard.Company is poised for higher growth with exports.
The portfolio is looking for dividend yield of 3% to 4% with the capacity to grow to 6% to 8% p.a over the next four years.It may not achieve over 80% capital growth,but you never know with "very good" shares.They usually surprise on the upside.
disc.I do not own FRE,although a trust I am involved with does.The rest I hold.
The reporting season.
TIL will not report until May.
Our portfolio has seen our companies report excellent results,and a lot of increased dividends.Solid outlooks,although FRE are cautious.
My only concern was SKL's flat result with uncertain outlook.I therefore sold.Will retain on my watch list, and will most probably buy in again when they report a good result.
Interestingly Chairman Sir Selywn Cushing has been adding to his holding.I think his record of astute investing is a lot superior than mine.
Lewylewylewy
08-03-2016, 12:49 PM
Any new leads for things that will go well this year? Hopefully I'll have some money coming my way in the next few months, so that'd be good to invest.
Currently the only thing that looks promising is VHP as a long term or SCL as a short term ready for when they announce that profit went up 10% at the end of 2016 due to larger apples and business growth, etc.
Sometimes the NZX feel like such a small playground compared to the foreign markets :(
I think SEK has potential for some good growth pending weather and disease (or fire)
malus
08-03-2016, 05:19 PM
Any new leads for things that will go well this year? Hopefully I'll have some money coming my way in the next few months, so that'd be good to invest.
Currently the only thing that looks promising is VHP as a long term or SCL as a short term ready for when they announce that profit went up 10% at the end of 2016 due to larger apples and business growth, etc.
Sometimes the NZX feel like such a small playground compared to the foreign markets :(
Was going to buy 10,000 units in 2004 (then called Calan Health Care Props I think)... unfortunately I was using Bill Garlick's Access Brokerage at the time... I placed the order and Access fell over... fortunately funds were still sitting with BNZ who refused to pass them over to the receivers. Eventually, 6 months later after a High Court case and favourable decision the funds came back and I bought RBD instead.
Any how just looked at how VHP has preformed over that time using Sharesight. I would have had a compounding return of 11%pa (incls capital appreciation + dividends)... so steady reliable long term, but as I think Percy mentioned not having management in house eats into capital appreciation. LVR - loan to value - is good 32.9% (most unit property trusts have a more conservative LVR now than back in 2007/8), WACC - weighted ave cost of capital - 5.32% and WALT - Weighted Average Lease Term - v good at 17yrs reflecting the sector they are in - healthcare, long term use of properties. 80% of properties in Aussie, 20% NZ. All important facet of course with property in is location... haven't looked closely at this, but assume like recent Boulcott purchase they are well located for future health care needs. Be interesting to have closer look at directors?
So, likely a steady performer and a good place to park capital instead of the bank
Interestingly, RBD over the same period gave me 17% compounding return, but a much less steady ride along the way!!
percy
08-03-2016, 05:53 PM
Malus.
If you were investing $10,000 tomorrow and you had to chose between RBD and VHP which would you buy?
2188 RBD @ $ 4.57 or 4878 VHP @ $2.05.?
BeeBop
08-03-2016, 05:57 PM
[QUOTE=malus;610644]Was going to buy 10,000 units in 2004 (then called Calan Health Care Props I think)... unfortunately I was using Bill Garlick's Access Brokerage at the time... I placed the order and Access fell over... fortunately funds were still sitting with BNZ who refused to pass them over to the receivers. Eventually, 6 months later after a High Court case and favourable decision the funds came back and I bought RBD instead.
Access Brokerage!!! We squeaked out of that safe JUST. Got our 60k out about 1 or 2 days before everything was frozen - bought our house at auction just after getting our money out...still have the property now in central Auckland. Had we not had our money out we wouldn't have been able to bid!
Joshuatree
08-03-2016, 06:17 PM
2004 good god man !! Bebop thats a great escape story!!How much has your house gone up % wise since. Good as lotto without the risk?:t_up: Im pouring another glass to celebrate your escape to riches story:t_up: and I'm sure craic already has.:t_up:
malus
08-03-2016, 09:41 PM
Malus.
If you were investing $10,000 tomorrow and you had to chose between RBD and VHP which would you buy?
2188 RBD @ $ 4.57 or 4878 VHP @ $2.05.?
That's a very good question Percy, I'll need to think about the reply. Off to bed now and away early tomorrow tramping ... will give you my thoughts on Thursday.
malus
08-03-2016, 09:46 PM
[QUOTE=malus;610644]Was going to buy 10,000 units in 2004 (then called Calan Health Care Props I think)... unfortunately I was using Bill Garlick's Access Brokerage at the time... I placed the order and Access fell over... fortunately funds were still sitting with BNZ who refused to pass them over to the receivers. Eventually, 6 months later after a High Court case and favourable decision the funds came back and I bought RBD instead.
Access Brokerage!!! We squeaked out of that safe JUST. Got our 60k out about 1 or 2 days before everything was frozen - bought our house at auction just after getting our money out...still have the property now in central Auckland. Had we not had our money out we wouldn't have been able to bid!
Help! Great escape alright Behop!
malus
10-03-2016, 01:03 PM
Malus.
If you were investing $10,000 tomorrow and you had to chose between RBD and VHP which would you buy?
2188 RBD @ $ 4.57 or 4878 VHP @ $2.05.?
VHP - question is if I paid $2.05 now, as a long term holder, say 10 years, would I get an 11% return (or better) compounding?
At present annual dividend is 8.1cents per share, around 4%pa and no imputation credits, whereas in Sept 2004 I would have paid $0.84 a share with annual dividend of 3.17cents per share, 3.8%pa (4.78%pa with imputation credit). I assume imputation credits have all but disappeared recently due to adjustments related to where tax is declared... ie Australia or NZ and they won't be back.
Observation - had I bought in Sept 2004 at $0.84, over time the company would have grown for me and would have paid a compounding dividend return of around 6%pa, with capital value expanding to give a total 11%pa compounding return. Note: without a request for more capital from shareholders.
Recently the Trust reported a half year $19m net distributable income and I assume its, second half is likely to be similar, so full year say $38m... 11cents per share... 5.3%pa based on current share price.
I see this as a typical unit property trust investment, steady over time as long as it continues to be well governed and managed... with results similar to the past 10 years and in a sector that is growing. I currently wouldn't pay more than $2.05 per share and preferably less.
RBD - the question again, if I pay $4.57 per share now, as a long term holder, again, say 10 years, would I get 17% return (or better) compounding.
When I bought in 2004 I liked the dividend yield at the time, and over the time I have owned them that yield has been around 11% compounding on what I paid for the shares, the rest being capital improvement, again without me having to put extra capital in. (Albeit there were rocky times for shareholders when the business was turned around from its foray into Victoria Pizza Hutt and refocused on its NZ brands).
I like the return on capital and on assets achieved by the Company, most recently 33% on capital and 16% on assets. Margin is typical of retail around 6%, but the customers all pay cash and it's matter of tight management of the rest the business to get shareholder results... good governance and management... I agree with you Percy, go Russell!
What I would have to pay now for RBD has risen with the announced Australian acquisition and associated risks... All the cons well covered on the RBD thread.
The answer Percy is, if I was conservative and happy to take a lower return for less risk VHP would likely appeal (better than in the bank with reasonable expectation of liquidity), on the other hand if I was prepared to take on higher risk for potentially higher reward the RBD option is likely more appealing... however, I usually make it rule to avoid purchasing just after an acquisition announcement... sometimes hype runs away with the share price.
So continuing happy holder of RBD
However, would now likely to put my $10,000 with RYM. If I had done so in 2004, I would have a capital gain of $95,000 and dividends of $10,000 and compounding annual gain of 26%! RBD has been good, but in hindsight I could have backed a better one and did back worse!
percy
10-03-2016, 01:47 PM
Thank you Malus for your excellent analysts of the question I asked you.
I actually brought RBD yesterday as I think KFC is what they know,and the NSW acquisition is KFC,and is a great beachhead to Australia..
Yes RYM has certainly performed, and I see SUM is very strong at present.A sector with big tailwinds.
Yet over the past year there have been some very poor performers.Luckily I do not own any of them;FBU-14.32%.STU-21%.SML-1.72%.SKT-21.01%.TWR-26.52%.CEN-28.55%.
Goes to prove time spent researching pays big dividends.
ps.Trust your tramp went well.I am busy lugging books.!!
malus
10-03-2016, 02:06 PM
Thank you Malus for your excellent analysts of the question I asked you.
I actually brought RBD yesterday as I think KFC is what they know,and the NSW acquisition is KFC,and is a great beachhead to Australia..
Yes RYM has certainly performed, and I see SUM is very strong at present.A sector with big tailwinds.
Yet over the past year there have been some very poor performers.Luckily I do not own any of them;FBU-14.32%.STU-21%.SML-1.72%.SKT-21.01%.TWR-26.52%.CEN-28.55%.
Goes to prove time spent researching pays big dividends.
ps.Trust your tramp went well.I am busy lugging books.!!
"Goes to prove time spent researching pays big dividends." 100% agree Percy. Beautiful day tramping in the Marlborough Sounds while the passive income continued to churn for me!
percy
15-03-2016, 06:36 PM
S
The next four years.
We will drop the following,ABA,not sure of future prospects,AWF I have doubts they will achieve the eps growth they are wanting,POT,seems to have lower eps growth than what I want. TUA were taken over by TNR and because of their high debt I have replaced them with HNZ.Having grown our capital by over 80% I think we can add a couple of extra companies to our solid diversified portfolio.
AWK.$3.30.Supplying freight planes to growing sector.Lower NZ $ will help earnings .
EBO.$11.78.Retain as reasons for buying remain intact.Well managed,in the growing health sector.
FRE.$5.55.Retain as reasons for buying remain intact.Well managed in growing express parcel sector.Internet sales must be delivered quickly.
MEL,$2.23,replaces POT.Low capex with high depreciation means strong cash flow resulting in high dividends.Low capital growth.
RYM.$7.38.Retain as reasons for buying remain.Best operator in the growing retirement sector.
SKL.$1.34,Retain as reasons for buying remain.Most earnings are outside NZ.Lower NZ$ will boast earnings.
HNZ.$1.13.Growing bank achieving what they say they will do.Strong balance sheet,modest ratios and growing dividend.
SCL.$1.98.Apples and coolstores.More profitable varieties coming through.Exporter,well managed.Room for growth.
SEK.$3.35.Kiwi fruit making a strong recovery from PSA.Growth prospects here and Australia make growth prospects interesting.
TIL,$1.52,Trilogy beauty products are of a high standard.Company is poised for higher growth with exports.
The portfolio is looking for dividend yield of 3% to 4% with the capacity to grow to 6% to 8% p.a over the next four years.It may not achieve over 80% capital growth,but you never know with "very good" shares.They usually surprise on the upside.
disc.I do not own FRE,although a trust I am involved with does.The rest I hold.
Well we are one week off owning our portfolio for 6 months.
All expectations beaten.!Growth required was 6% to 8% pa.We are up 26.72% in under 6 months and have also enjoyed increasing dividends.!
AWK $3.30 now $4.25 up 28.78%.
EBO $11.78 now $16.74 up 42%
FRE $5.55 now $6.38 up 15%
MEL $2.23 now $2.50 up 12%
RYM $7.38 now $8.34 up 13%
HBL $1.13 now $1.22 up 7.96%
SCL $1.98 now $2.67 up 34 8%
SEK $3.35 now $3.78 up 13%
TIL $1.52 now $3.45 up 126%.
One change.SKL brought $1.34,sold at $1.35.
SKL replaced with RBD.We will start at $4.69 [although I brought at $4.53].
Franko
15-03-2016, 07:04 PM
Hi Percy
A question for you on this portfolio. Do you think that the current share prices as of today still represent a reasonable entry price for these holdings, based on the original goals which were 3% - 4% dividend yeild and capital growth of 6%-8%. If not, what would you change given all we know today.
Cheers
S
Well we are one week off owning our portfolio for 6 months.
All expectations beaten.!Growth required was 6% to 8% pa.We are up 25.83% in under 6 months and have also enjoyed increasing dividends.!
AWK $3.30 now $4.25 up 28.78%.
EBO $11.78 now $16.74 up 42%
FRE $5.55 now $6.38 up 15%
MEL $2.23 now $2.50 up 12%
RYM $7.38 now $8.34 up 13%
HBL $1.13 now $1.22 up 7.96%
SEK $3.35 now $3.78 up 13%
TIL $1.52 now $3.45 up 126%.
One change.SKL brought $1.34,sold at $1.35.
SKL replaced with RBD.We will start at $4.69 [although I brought at $4.53].
That's what I call a "Black Monday".
percy
15-03-2016, 08:04 PM
Hi Percy
A question for you on this portfolio. Do you think that the current share prices as of today still represent a reasonable entry price for these holdings, based on the original goals which were 3% - 4% dividend yeild and capital growth of 6%-8%. If not, what would you change given all we know today.
Cheers
Very good question Franko.Welcome to Sharetrader.Please read my foot note.
Yes.
Changes.Well SKL have been sold and replaced by RBD.
EBO today $16.74 8% sp growth $18.07.Achieveable.
SCL today $2.67..8% sp growth $2.88.achieveable.
They may be the two which would have the most difficulty achieving the 8% pa growth over the next few years.
While interest rates remain low the portfolio will out perform.Interest rates are expected to remain low for the foreseeable future.
Foot note.Shares are my hobbie.I am a bookseller.I have no financial training.I share my views on Sharetrader as a means of exchanging ideas only.You must do your own research. You would look a fool if you lost you money, buying shares recommended by some Percy, on an internet chat site.!!
Franko
15-03-2016, 08:36 PM
Hi Percy
Thanks for the reply and also the welcome :)
I have been lurking around for some years now, and only now finally registering and getting around to posting. Like yourself I see this forum as an open exchange of ideas for like minded people. Nothing to be taken as professional advice.
I look forward to more discussions with yourself and the rest of the ST members over the coming years.
Lewylewylewy
15-03-2016, 10:19 PM
Percy, I've wondered what might be in your share portfolio. I'm a little surprised not to see CVT. thanks for sharing.
percy
16-03-2016, 07:20 AM
Percy, I've wondered what might be in your share portfolio. I'm a little surprised not to see CVT. thanks for sharing.
CVT is in there.!!!
My largest holding is HBL,then EBO.
Then AWK,SCL,TIL.
Good holdings in CVT,FPH,MEL.
A spread in AIA,AIR, RBD,RYM,SEK,SUM and TNR.
On unlisted market I have a sizeable holding in PAZ.
We also have a sizeable holding in Estar.
I also have a fun portfolio of small cap Aussie stocks.A big spread,with not too much in any one company.
percy
16-03-2016, 12:58 PM
Very good question Franko.Welcome to Sharetrader.Please read my foot note.
Yes.
Changes.Well SKL have been sold and replaced by RBD.
EBO today $16.74 8% sp growth $18.07.Achieveable.
SCL today $2.67..8% sp growth $2.88.achieveable.
They may be the two which would have the most difficulty achieving the 8% pa growth over the next few years.
While interest rates remain low the portfolio will out perform.Interest rates are expected to remain low for the foreseeable future.
Foot note.Shares are my hobbie.I am a bookseller.I have no financial training.I share my views on Sharetrader as a means of exchanging ideas only.You must do your own research. You would look a fool if you lost you money, buying shares recommended by some Percy, on an internet chat site.!!
Well well well,SCL up 4.86% in one day.!!The 8% certainly looks acheiveable!!!!
Well well well,SCL up 4.86% in one day.!!The 8% certainly looks acheiveable!!!!
EBO was my biggest holding but a couple weeks ago it became SCL:) Enjoying this run. CVT was the one I always felt I missed last year. I might dip my toes in this year.
Hectorplains
16-03-2016, 10:19 PM
SLI could be a good currency play - I've not heard it discussed as such - if you believe it's trending lower.
Results have been improving (meeting guidance) but buoyed by the dollar. Further depreciation in the kiwi brings bucks to their earnings.
Weighted against this is their illiquidity and headwinds in South America, esp. Brazil.
Lewylewylewy
30-03-2016, 02:01 PM
Just to keep this alive...
I believe that FPH could be a good one for slow traders, I'm sure it'll get up to $10, which will be 3% gain after fees.
Is this the best investment right now? Probably not. Is it an easy 3% within the next quarter? Yup.
thestg
30-03-2016, 02:59 PM
Where to invest? Last Sept I decided I’d see how good analysts’ are, so I went to 4 Traders & using their market screener
I selected the top 8 shares on the NZX exchange.
I then bought $5,000 of each share.
The results up till today, after 192 days with dividends & tax credits are as follows:
MFT +6.16% SLI +27.78% AIR +25.57% HLG +1.98%
NPX +38.48% NZR -4.63% EBO +51.68% FPH +28.24%
My return on $40,000 so far is $8,762.82 = 21.91% (Annualised 41.73%)
Also looked at Aussie shares – didn’t invest there, but if I had have Aussie would have returned $153.00 = 0.38% over 192 days.
I then kept a spreadsheet from the 1/1/16 to see how things would work out on the NZX (didn’t have the cash to invest on this one.)
At the end of each month I re-balanced to keep the top 8.
Results for the 89 days of this year including divs & credits is $3280.89 = 8.20% (Annualised 33.41%)
Not bad returns. It has been a good bull market, I guess if it was a bear then losses could also be large, would be interesting to test it.
percy
13-05-2016, 03:48 PM
S
Well we are one week off owning our portfolio for 6 months.
All expectations beaten.!Growth required was 6% to 8% pa.We are up 26.72% in under 6 months and have also enjoyed increasing dividends.!
AWK $3.30 now $4.25 up 28.78%.
EBO $11.78 now $16.74 up 42%
FRE $5.55 now $6.38 up 15%
MEL $2.23 now $2.50 up 12%
RYM $7.38 now $8.34 up 13%
HBL $1.13 now $1.22 up 7.96%
SCL $1.98 now $2.67 up 34 8%
SEK $3.35 now $3.78 up 13%
TIL $1.52 now $3.45 up 126%.
One change.SKL brought $1.34,sold at $1.35.
SKL replaced with RBD.We will start at $4.69 [although I brought at $4.53].
Today.
AWK $4.65,EBO $15.60,FRE $6.61,MEL $2.695,RYM $9.26,HBL $$1.18,SCL $3.24,SEK $4.40,TIL $3.55 and our SKL replacement RBD is $5.48.
No changes.
We remain "well positioned."
Lewylewylewy
13-05-2016, 06:03 PM
Nice! It makes me happy to see you doing well.
Do you think FRE is a wise hold still? I imagine the fuel gains are well and truely priced in by now and there are risks of a slowing economy.
Side note: SKC might be a good short term buy if it's not too late to get in on the offer.
I'm also liking RBD as a pick.
percy
13-05-2016, 06:51 PM
Nice! It makes me happy to see you doing well.
Do you think FRE is a wise hold still? I imagine the fuel gains are well and truely priced in by now and there are risks of a slowing economy.
Side note: SKC might be a good short term buy if it's not too late to get in on the offer.
I'm also liking RBD as a pick.
FRE,we have held since post#2 on this thread 1-10-2011,so it has served us well.
Say we sold today at $6.59 and replaced it with a good boring staple,TGH at $1.64.
Porfolio may be fowly overweighted, as we also hold RBD.!
h2so4
14-05-2016, 08:40 AM
Today.
AWK $4.65,EBO $15.60,FRE $6.61,MEL $2.695,RYM $9.26,HBL $$1.18,SCL $3.24,SEK $4.40,TIL $3.55 and our SKL replacement RBD is $5.48.
No changes.
We remain "well positioned."
Now that's what I call Smartshares.
Lewylewylewy
14-05-2016, 08:49 AM
Sharetrade.co.nz, your number one source for puns and share tips lol
percy
14-05-2016, 09:25 AM
Sharetrade.co.nz, your number one source for puns and share tips lol
Just hope the share tips are better than the puns?
Dreadful if they were both as bad as each other!!..lol.
percy
14-06-2016, 04:55 PM
The next four years.
We will drop the following,ABA,not sure of future prospects,AWF I have doubts they will achieve the eps growth they are wanting,POT,seems to have lower eps growth than what I want. TUA were taken over by TNR and because of their high debt I have replaced them with HNZ.Having grown our capital by over 80% I think we can add a couple of extra companies to our solid diversified portfolio.
AWK.$3.30.Supplying freight planes to growing sector.Lower NZ $ will help earnings .
EBO.$11.78.Retain as reasons for buying remain intact.Well managed,in the growing health sector.
FRE.$5.55.Retain as reasons for buying remain intact.Well managed in growing express parcel sector.Internet sales must be delivered quickly.
MEL,$2.23,replaces POT.Low capex with high depreciation means strong cash flow resulting in high dividends.Low capital growth.
RYM.$7.38.Retain as reasons for buying remain.Best operator in the growing retirement sector.
SKL.$1.34,Retain as reasons for buying remain.Most earnings are outside NZ.Lower NZ$ will boast earnings.
HNZ.$1.13.Growing bank achieving what they say they will do.Strong balance sheet,modest ratios and growing dividend.
SCL.$1.98.Apples and coolstores.More profitable varieties coming through.Exporter,well managed.Room for growth.
SEK.$3.35.Kiwi fruit making a strong recovery from PSA.Growth prospects here and Australia make growth prospects interesting.
TIL,$1.52,Trilogy beauty products are of a high standard.Company is poised for higher growth with exports.
The portfolio is looking for dividend yield of 3% to 4% with the capacity to grow to 6% to 8% p.a over the next four years.It may not achieve over 80% capital growth,but you never know with "very good" shares.They usually surprise on the upside.
disc.I do not own FRE,although a trust I am involved with does.The rest I hold.
Well nearly 9 months on and a day when markets are nervous,we remain "well positioned".!
AWK.brought $3.30 today $4.78 plus 44.8%
EBO.brought $11.78 today $16.35 plus 38.8%
FRE.brought $5.55 SOLD $6.59 plus 18.7%
HBL.brought $1.13.today $1.30 plus 15%
MEL.brought $2.23 today $2.585 plus 15.9%
RYM,brought $7.38.today $9.28 plus 25.7%
SCL,brought $1.98.today $3.14.plus 58.5%
SEK,brought $3.35.today $4.42 plus 31.9%
SKL.brought $1.34 SOLD $1.35 no profit
TIL brought $1.52.today $4.10.plus 169.7%
Since added;
RBD brought $4.69.today $5.39 plus 14.9%
TGH,brought $1.64 ,today $1.67 plus 1.8%
We have also received juicy dividends.
We will leave the portfolio as it is.No changes.
Well nearly 9 months on and a day when markets are nervous,we remain "well positioned".!
AWK.brought $3.30 today $4.78 plus 44.8%
EBO.brought $11.78 today $16.35 plus 38.8%
FRE.brought $5.55 SOLD $6.59 plus 18.7%
HBL.brought $1.13.today $1.30 plus 15%
MEL.brought $2.23 today $2.585 plus 15.9%
RYM,brought $7.38.today $9.28 plus 25.7%
SCL,brought $1.98.today $3.14.plus 58.5%
SEK,brought $3.35.today $4.42 plus 31.9%
SKL.brought $1.34 SOLD $1.35 no profit
TIL brought $1.52.today $4.10.plus 169.7%
Since added;
RBD brought $4.69.today $5.39 plus 14.9%
TGH,brought $1.64 ,today 41.67 plus 1.8%
We have also received juicy dividends.
We will leave the portfolio as it is.No changes.
Great list, I too have included RBD to my portfolio, would be great if the QSR acquisition brings >16mill to EBITDA. I think that would see sp $6+ mid next year, well before FY18.
percy
21-08-2016, 08:39 AM
EBO price will double in 3-4 years? Would you care to elaborate please percy?
Above was posted 19/8/2013.
SP then was $9.90.
Friday it was $17.40.[up 75.75% not including divies].
Has not doubled yet.
May take 4 years rather than 3.
What a bugger.!.lol.
voltage
21-08-2016, 09:09 AM
Well done Percy, yes a great list. If you were buying today would the list change? I thought NZX was fully valued 3 months ago. Better than an auckland house!
percy
21-08-2016, 10:02 AM
I think I am like most posters on sharetrader;worried a lot of stocks are very expensive,hard to find under valued stocks,scared to sell anything,because bank returns are very low.
The only change,would be to sell half AWF and TUA and buy HNZ.[At present HNZ is not paying a divie,divie policy to be announce at AGM on 30/11/12]
Posted 10/10/2012.
Still hard to find undervalued stocks.
percy
21-08-2016, 10:12 AM
Well nearly 9 months on and a day when markets are nervous,we remain "well positioned".!
AWK.brought $3.30 today $4.78 plus 44.8%
EBO.brought $11.78 today $16.35 plus 38.8%
FRE.brought $5.55 SOLD $6.59 plus 18.7%
HBL.brought $1.13.today $1.30 plus 15%
MEL.brought $2.23 today $2.585 plus 15.9%
RYM,brought $7.38.today $9.28 plus 25.7%
SCL,brought $1.98.today $3.14.plus 58.5%
SEK,brought $3.35.today $4.42 plus 31.9%
SKL.brought $1.34 SOLD $1.35 no profit
TIL brought $1.52.today $4.10.plus 169.7%
Since added;
RBD brought $4.69.today $5.39 plus 14.9%
TGH,brought $1.64 ,today $1.67 plus 1.8%
We have also received juicy dividends.
We will leave the portfolio as it is.No changes.
Well I was going to leave an update until next month when the portfolio would have been going for a year.
At this point no changes,as the out look for NZ looks very good for the next few years,and low interest rates are set to continue for the foreseeable future.
TGH looks to be undervalued,the latest announcement that they will be able to supply Australia with fresh chicken is significant.
As sharetraders may have guessed I was over the moon with HBL's result.Am awaiting SCLand SEK results.All the others are on track.
I have just realised TNR is not on the list.I recently added to my own TNR,and although with bonds about to convert I find it hard to work out a fair valuation,i think management are excellent.Doing all the right things,so will add it to the list next month.
Well I was going to leave an update until next month when the portfolio would have been going for a year.
At this point no changes,as the out look for NZ looks very good for the next few years,and low interest rates are set to continue for the foreseeable future.
TGH looks to be undervalued,the latest announcement that they will be able to supply Australia with fresh chicken is significant.
As sharetraders may have guessed I was over the moon with HBL's result.Am awaiting SCLand SEK results.All the others are on track.
I have just realised TNR is not on the list.I recently added to my own TNR,and although with bonds about to convert I find it hard to work out a fair valuation,i think management are excellent.Doing all the right things,so will add it to the list next month.
Are you surprised by the performance of any so far? I am also expecting great news from SEK, AWK and SCL
shasta
22-08-2016, 11:31 AM
Well I was going to leave an update until next month when the portfolio would have been going for a year.
At this point no changes,as the out look for NZ looks very good for the next few years,and low interest rates are set to continue for the foreseeable future.
TGH looks to be undervalued,the latest announcement that they will be able to supply Australia with fresh chicken is significant.
As sharetraders may have guessed I was over the moon with HBL's result.Am awaiting SCLand SEK results.All the others are on track.
I have just realised TNR is not on the list.I recently added to my own TNR,and although with bonds about to convert I find it hard to work out a fair valuation,i think management are excellent.Doing all the right things,so will add it to the list next month.
No IFT in the portfolio, its the one NZX stock i really like, top management and they are a steady performer.
The AUD/NZD rate over 90c makes it a good time to buy ASX stocks too, i'm assuming the rate will drop as there economy strengthens.
percy
22-08-2016, 11:59 AM
Are you surprised by the performance of any so far? I am also expecting great news from SEK, AWK and SCL
I am surprised by the performance of all of them.!
Post #80 23/9/2015 I stated the objectives were;dividend yield of 3% to 4%,and capital growth of 6% to 7% pa over the next 4 years.At this stage it is looking as though we will achieve 4 years growth in one year!!!
percy
22-08-2016, 12:21 PM
No IFT in the portfolio, its the one NZX stock i really like, top management and they are a steady performer.
The AUD/NZD rate over 90c makes it a good time to buy ASX stocks too, i'm assuming the rate will drop as there economy strengthens.
Totally agree.
Would fit in any long term portfolio.
I have a relatively large tax refund coming in soon and usually I don't go dividend hunting but I was wondering what stocks you guys recommend for a relatively safe share price and good dividend.
I already hold a large parcel of IFT and it would be my first choice to add to it as the share price has been going sideways for a while and HY to be announced in November.
I appreciate your replies.
Kelvin
25-08-2016, 10:00 AM
I have a relatively large tax refund coming in soon and usually I don't go dividend hunting but I was wondering what stocks you guys recommend for a relatively safe share price and good dividend.
I already hold a large parcel of IFT and it would be my first choice to add to it as the share price has been going sideways for a while and HY to be announced in November.
I appreciate your replies.
How about the electricity companies when they're cheap or SPK. CEN went down to around $5.10 recently.
Or a REIT - ARG is yielding over 5%, GMT maybe decent too
Then there's HLG. Relies on maintaining their revenue and margins/NZ dollar staying strong though.
DYOR of course
percy
25-08-2016, 10:41 AM
I have a relatively large tax refund coming in soon and usually I don't go dividend hunting but I was wondering what stocks you guys recommend for a relatively safe share price and good dividend.
I already hold a large parcel of IFT and it would be my first choice to add to it as the share price has been going sideways for a while and HY to be announced in November.
I appreciate your replies.
HBL.Yield is excellent and they have the capacity to keep increasing the divie as their eps growth is strong.
percy
23-09-2016, 06:46 PM
The next four years.
We will drop the following,ABA,not sure of future prospects,AWF I have doubts they will achieve the eps growth they are wanting,POT,seems to have lower eps growth than what I want. TUA were taken over by TNR and because of their high debt I have replaced them with HNZ.Having grown our capital by over 80% I think we can add a couple of extra companies to our solid diversified portfolio.
AWK.$3.30.Supplying freight planes to growing sector.Lower NZ $ will help earnings .
EBO.$11.78.Retain as reasons for buying remain intact.Well managed,in the growing health sector.
FRE.$5.55.Retain as reasons for buying remain intact.Well managed in growing express parcel sector.Internet sales must be delivered quickly.
MEL,$2.23,replaces POT.Low capex with high depreciation means strong cash flow resulting in high dividends.Low capital growth.
RYM.$7.38.Retain as reasons for buying remain.Best operator in the growing retirement sector.
SKL.$1.34,Retain as reasons for buying remain.Most earnings are outside NZ.Lower NZ$ will boast earnings.
HNZ.$1.13.Growing bank achieving what they say they will do.Strong balance sheet,modest ratios and growing dividend.
SCL.$1.98.Apples and coolstores.More profitable varieties coming through.Exporter,well managed.Room for growth.
SEK.$3.35.Kiwi fruit making a strong recovery from PSA.Growth prospects here and Australia make growth prospects interesting.
TIL,$1.52,Trilogy beauty products are of a high standard.Company is poised for higher growth with exports.
The portfolio is looking for dividend yield of 3% to 4% with the capacity to grow to 6% to 8% p.a over the next four years.It may not achieve over 80% capital growth,but you never know with "very good" shares.They usually surprise on the upside.
disc.I do not own FRE,although a trust I am involved with does.The rest I hold.
One year on.All targets exceeded.!
AWK .Now $4.50 up 36%
EBO,...."....$19.00 up 61%
FRE .Sold $6.59 up 18.7%and replaced by RBD at $4.69 now $5.66 up 20%
HBL was HNZ now $1.54 up 36.2%
MEL,now $2.85 up 27.8%
RYM now $9.30 up 26%
SKL sold $1.35 no profit replaced by TGH now $1.64 No profit as brought at $1.64
SCL.now $3.12 up 57.5%
SEK .now $4.50 up 34%
TIL,now $4.10 up a massive 169.7%.
We have also enjoyed excellent dividends which I have not included.
Xerof
23-09-2016, 07:00 PM
Congratulations percy, thats a fantastic result.
percy
23-09-2016, 07:05 PM
Congratulations percy, thats a fantastic result.
Surprised myself.!!..lol.
Trying to compare it to NZ50,but that index which is up 27.61% includes dividends,yet we are up approx 48.69%without dividends..
fungus pudding
23-09-2016, 08:04 PM
One year on.All targets exceeded.!
AWK .Now $4.50 up 36%
EBO,...."....$19.00 up 61%
FRE .Sold $6.59 up 18.7%and replaced by RBD at $4.69 now $5.66 up 20%
HBL was HNZ now $1.54 up 36.2%
MEL,now $2.85 up 27.8%
RYM now $9.30 up 26%
SKL sold $1.35 no profit replaced by TGH now $1.64 No profit as brought at $1.64
SCL.now $3.12 up 57.5%
SEK .now $4.50 up 34%
TIL,now $4.10 up a massive 169.7%.
We have also enjoyed excellent dividends which I have not included.
Adding in dividends what percentage did you gain overall for the year? IOW what would $1000 have become.
trader_jackson
23-09-2016, 08:11 PM
Surprised myself.!!..lol.
Trying to compare it to NZ50,but that index which is up 27.61% includes dividends,yet we are up approx 48.69%without dividends..
Congratulations, fantastic result:t_up:
Will be interesting to see how it continues
percy
23-09-2016, 08:36 PM
Adding in dividends what percentage did you gain overall for the year? IOW what would $1000 have become.
Sorry I don't know.
A guess.4% dividends on 48.69 % would be 52.69% so your $1,000 would be $1,526.90
percy
23-09-2016, 08:40 PM
Well a year on and we can see how the portfolio performed.Very well.
ABA was $4 .10 Today $5.60 +36% plus divies.
AWF was $2.00 Today $2.20 +11% plus divies.
EBO was $6.80 Today $8.23 +21.1% plus divies.
FRE was $2.97 Today $4.40 +48.1% plus divies.
SKL was $1.24 Today $1.69 +36.29% plus divies.
TUA was $1.35 Today $1.80 +33.33% plus divies.
POT was $9.65 Today $12.60 +30.5% plus divies.
RYM was $2.52 Today $4.11 +63% plus divies.
Overall average + 34.91% PLUS DIVIES.
Above I posted on 10-10-2012 post #50 on this thread.
So still getting pretty good results.
fungus pudding
23-09-2016, 08:53 PM
Sorry I don't know.
A guess.4% dividends on 48.69 % would be 52,69% so your $1,000 would be $1,529.
Thanks. I was more wondering if all shares had an equal investment, but obviously not with average of 35% and real total gain of 48% plus. Certainly a feather in your cap - well done.
percy
23-09-2016, 09:04 PM
Thanks. I was more wondering if all shares had an equal investment, but obviously not. A gain of 48% + overall is certainly a feather in your cap - well done.
My own portfolio is based on two core holdings,.They are HBL and EBO.I have approx 30% in HBL and about 18% in EBO.I usually start off buying up to 5%,and add on good news.I let my profits run,and sell my poor performers.
DarkHorse
23-09-2016, 10:05 PM
Well done Percy. My portfolio - also including AWK, EBO, SCL, SEK and TIL - has had a pleasant couple of years too but value's getting harder to find. Have lightened AWK and TIL and bought PGC and EVO
I haven't followed HBL closely but as an admirer of your approach and record I'm very interested to see you have such a large position.
Could you share (either here on on HBL thread) a summary of where you think their greatest growth potential lies?
Thanks, DH
percy
23-09-2016, 10:39 PM
Well done Percy. My portfolio - also including AWK, EBO, SCL, SEK and TIL - has had a pleasant couple of years too but value's getting harder to find. Have lightened AWK and TIL and bought PGC and EVO
I haven't followed HBL closely but as an admirer of your approach and record I'm very interested to see you have such a large position.
Could you share (either here on on HBL thread) a summary of where you think their greatest growth potential lies?
Thanks, DH
Focussing on Digital/on line.As we can see with retailers, such as those who reported today HGL and WHS their greatest growth is online.I note Briscoes and Turners are growing their online offerings too.Speaking to HBL I found out their "open for business" is growing very quickly,and they are also getting a lot of enquiries for Reverse Equity Loans on line.So products that suit online ,and marketing those products online.
Large position in HBL.When I had my own bookshop I was 100% invested in my very small [risky] business.In the sharemarket I can invest in better well run businesses,such as HBL and EBO,so I have lowered my risks.Yet I would be over the moon should HBL grow to 50% of my portfolio.!!!!!..lol.
DarkHorse
24-09-2016, 02:42 PM
Thanks for sharing Percy. Will have a closer look at HBL.
Take your point about owning a business - been through that myself - shares can be lower risk.
Not to mention the other major benefits - no need to deal with demanding and irrational employees/customers/landlords/government regulators/agents...etc etc etc - buying shares in other businesses has been far more fun and a lot more profitable for me :)
Valuegrowth
24-09-2016, 05:14 PM
Thank you for sharing some useful ideas. Good luck!
Focussing on Digital/on line.As we can see with retailers, such as those who reported today HGL and WHS their greatest growth is online.I note Briscoes and Turners are growing their online offerings too.Speaking to HBL I found out their "open for business" is growing very quickly,and they are also getting a lot of enquiries for Reverse Equity Loans on line.So products that suit online ,and marketing those products online.
Large position in HBL.When I had my own bookshop I was 100% invested in my very small [risky] business.In the sharemarket I can invest in better well run businesses,such as HBL and EBO,so I have lowered my risks.Yet I would be over the moon should HBL grow to 50% of my portfolio.!!!!!..lol.
percy
24-09-2016, 05:42 PM
HBL growth.
Go to www.NZX.com website.HBL announcements, 2nd June 2016 presentation.page 6.
In the sharemarket I can invest in better well run businesses,such as HBL and EBO,so I have lowered my risks.
I think this is the main point for me getting into shares, I am quite numbers savvy and have had a few small businesses but came to the conclusion, it's hard work and there's much better run businesses out there which I can tap into just by spending time doing research and attending AGM's, much easier than the day to day runnings of my own business. There's still risk but I think it's less stress and less time spent imo.
I still do a little property business as an aside but even that takes too much of time and dealing with people who are difficult for very little reward in the end.
This forum is great, even though I am sure there are people like me who dont post too much on ST but we do read and follow the posts.
Thanks
Turtle2
27-09-2016, 09:19 AM
Hey all, new to sharetrading and this thread. Currently have 60k to invest and was wondering where I should start looking. I am thinking of getting into property in 6-12 months so would be quite short term. From reading here I see HBL seems a good bet to make up a reasonable proportion of a portfolio, as well as a healthcare company (RYM, FPH). But would these be suitable for a short term investment? Thanks
Cricketfan
27-09-2016, 09:25 AM
Hey all, new to sharetrading and this thread. Currently have 60k to invest and was wondering where I should start looking. I am thinking of getting into property in 6-12 months so would be quite short term. From reading here I see HBL seems a good bet to make up a reasonable proportion of a portfolio, as well as a healthcare company (RYM, FPH). But would these be suitable for a short term investment? Thanks
I would avoid shares for short term investment.
iceman
27-09-2016, 09:26 AM
Welcome Matthew. If you want access to the money in 6-12 months for property investment then I would suggest you thoroughly consider whether it may not be more prudent to stick it in a term deposit than the sharemarket at the moment. Not saying don't do it, just to think very carefully about it. HBL is a large part of my portfolio and has been for years and yes it has been and still is (in my view) a very good long term investment. DYOR.
percy
27-09-2016, 09:29 AM
Welcome Matthew. If you want access to the money in 6-12 months for property investment then I would suggest you thoroughly consider whether it may not be more prudent to stick it in a term deposit than the sharemarket at the moment. Not saying don't do it, just to think very carefully about it. HBL is a large part of my portfolio and has been for years and yes it has been and still is (in my view) a very good long term investment. DYOR.
I totally agree with Iceman and Cricketfan.
HBL.Although I have been a "cheer leader" for HBL,I would point out it is above both of NZ's leading brokers' target share price,so you would be putting your capital at risk buying at today's sp.
Go with the term deposit option.
Turtle2
27-09-2016, 09:31 AM
Welcome Matthew. If you want access to the money in 6-12 months for property investment then I would suggest you thoroughly consider whether it may not be more prudent to stick it in a term deposit than the sharemarket at the moment. Not saying don't do it, just to think very carefully about it. HBL is a large part of my portfolio and has been for years and yes it has been and still is (in my view) a very good long term investment. DYOR.
Thanks iceman, I am keeping a little back so have some to lose and a little wriggle room if it comes to that.
Turtle2
27-09-2016, 09:36 AM
I totally agree with Iceman and Cricketfan.
Fast replies on here! Thanks Cricketfan and percy. Would you still say to stay away even if I have some money to lose? I don't mind he risk that comes with it. Would just stay away if I expected a reasonable correction in he near future (which is a possibility).
percy
27-09-2016, 09:48 AM
Fast replies on here! Thanks Cricketfan and percy. Would you still say to stay away even if I have some money to lose? I don't mind he risk that comes with it. Would just stay away if I expected a reasonable correction in he near future (which is a possibility).
Different question.!
Sorry I forgot to welcome you to ST Matthew.
If it is any help to you I go for companies where I think their growth will be higher than their current PE ratio.Three companies I have recently brought who are currently paying reasonable dividends are EVO,PE ratio 10.99 with expected earning per share growth rate of over 12.5%,HLG PE 13.69 eps growth rate ov 15% and TNR pe 13.04 and expected growth rate of over 14%.
Warning.The sharemarket is my hobbie.I am a bookseller. You must do your own research.
One thing I am sure of though, is if you need your money out in 6months time I can bet your boots any share you buy will be down.!
Turtle2
27-09-2016, 09:57 AM
Different question.!
Sorry I forgot to welcome you to ST Matthew.
If it is any help to you I go for companies where I think their growth will be higher than their current PE ratio.Three companies I have recently brought who are currently paying reasonable dividends are EVO,PE ratio 10.99 with expected earning per share growth rate of over 12.5%,HLG PE 13.69 eps growth rate ov 15% and TNR pe 13.04 and expected growth rate of over 14%.
Warning.The sharemarket is my hobbie.I am a bookseller. You must do your own research.
One thing I am sure of though, is if you need your money out in 6months time I can bet your boots any share you buy will be down.!
Thanks percy! Will have a further look into those companies but keep my boots in mind!
malus
27-09-2016, 12:23 PM
Fast replies on here! Thanks Cricketfan and percy. Would you still say to stay away even if I have some money to lose? I don't mind he risk that comes with it. Would just stay away if I expected a reasonable correction in he near future (which is a possibility).
Welcome Matthew... I assume the problem you are wrestling with is return on fixed term deposit (low) as opposed to what "Mr Market" can do for you (may be a capital gain... one dividend payment). What you must realise is that many others are wrestling with the same issue and therefore "Mr Market" :D seems appealing to them at the moment too. I assume you know where market is generally, ie NZX index is hovering around a time highs.
What you must take into account is if a whole lot of bad news turns up tomorrow, Mr Market will have a whole different deal for you tomorrow too... could you handle a" manic depressive" :cursing:Mr Market handing you back 40% less than you gave to him! (no matter how good the prospects of individual shares you chose looked time you took them off a "smiley face":) Mr Market's hands).
What I'm saying is those of us that have done a few decades with Mr Market have witnessed many celebrations and many tantrums.
For me personally, and I suspect Percy too, we are comfortable with that, given we are long term holders and even with a 40% reduction in the value of our portfolios we are still well ahead of where we started and if we have chosen stocks well the dividend income will still flow during a market shock.
Clearly on this tread you are looking at "where to invest". Guess I'm just checking to make sure you know how fickle Mr Market can be and if he is the right character with whom to invest.
hey_homes
27-09-2016, 12:29 PM
I've got a bit of money sitting idle following the NPX sale. Have been trying to find something I feel comfortable buying but as yet have made no moves. Might just give it a little while.
Jantar
27-09-2016, 02:25 PM
I have set up a spreadsheet to help me with decisions like this. It looks at the RoI based on last 12 months ordinary dividends (not special divs) and my own estimate of the amount of growth likely in the following 12 months. It also uses the average price of my current holding in any share and the RoI that I am currently achieving, and also the total share of my portfolio that the security currently makes up. It then recommends Accumulate, Hold, or Reduce
It is personalized to my own holdings so may not give the same results for anyone else. At present it is suggesting I should be increasing my holdings in STU, HLG, GNE and THL.
percy
07-01-2018, 10:38 AM
Sorry I forgot about this thread.Lets start afresh.
Objectives;
Time frame 4 to 5 years
The portfolio is looking for dividend yield of 3% pa with the capacity to grow to 6% to 8%.
Low churn.
HBL.Heartland Bank.Share price $2.11,PE 17.34,yield 4.22%.A proven winner.Strong organic growth in niche markets New products being well received via digital channels.Very high net interest margin.
HLG.Hallenstein Glasson,Share price $4.25,PE 14.67,yield 7.41%.Business back to marketing the right clothes the customers want. Momentum gaining traction.As per all retailers we need to watch out for weaken NZ $ and customer's buying patterns.
MEL.Meridian Energy. Share price $2.98,PE 36.75 yield %6.34%.Renewable energy supplier in both NZ and Australia.Powershop gaining traction in Australia.MEL's IT being licenced in UK and most probably Europe some.Growing use of Electric Cars will help grow demand.
OCA.Oceania Healthcare.Share price $1.03.PE 14.61.Yield, not yet paying a dividend.Retirement village/care provider.Strong tail winds will drive this sector over the next 20 to 30 years.,
SUM.Summerset Group.Share price $5.52,PE 6.59,yield 1.63.Proven record of following Ryman's successful retirement village development model.Development and unit resales growing strongly.Although the yield is poor the share price growth will more than compensate.
THLTourism Holdings.Share price $5.95,PE 23.19.yield 3.53%.Independant motor home holidays/travel is a growing worldwide sector.THL's business models are at the forefront,providing for all their customers' requirements.
TRA.Turners Automotive Group.Share price $3.27,PE 12.81 yield 4.43%.Vertically integrated business model, in a fragmented used truck.equipment and vehicle sales sector.Property developers of their own premises,sales,finance,insurance,and soon vehicle repairs.
All the above have strong balance sheets,good directors,strong management,strong brands,and are focussed on their core businesses.
But wait there's more.
For those people with a short attention span,ie 4 months instead of 4 years;
ALF.Allied Farmers.share price 10.6 cents,PE 10.93,yield 1.89%.Business turnaround is gaining traction,with ALF gaining market share in livestock commissions,and now finance.Could be a bit of fun should litigators are successful in the up coming Property Ventures directors court case.
Bumkin
07-01-2018, 11:22 AM
Thanks for your advice, excactly what I’ve been looking for. MEL yield ? Craigs quote 8.8% Che.ers
percy
07-01-2018, 11:29 AM
Thanks for your advice, excactly what I’ve been looking for. MEL yield ? Craigs quote 8.8% Che.ers
I have taken all figures from ANZ Securities site.
I think the 8.8% Craigs yield is gross yield, while the ANZ Securities is net yield.
Je whiz you have not posted very often.?
Once every couple of years..lol.
Would have thought RBD would have featured on there.... u still a holder or sold out as well?
Cricketfan
07-01-2018, 11:57 AM
What percentage of cash are you guys holding at the moment? I have about 60-40 split in favour of shares and I'm tempted to buy some of the more conservative stocks for the dividend yields, but i'm just wary of being too heavy in shares.
percy
07-01-2018, 11:58 AM
Would have thought RBD would have featured on there.... u still a holder or sold out as well?
Maybe you are right and RBD should be there.Great story.
I unfortunately sold,however The Trust I help out, still holds.
percy
07-01-2018, 12:06 PM
What percentage of cash are you guys holding at the moment? I have about 60-40 split in favour of shares and I'm tempted to buy some of the more conservative stocks for the dividend yields, but i'm just wary of being too heavy in shares.
Once a year for the past four years I have had a big sell down and go big on cash.
Last one was a few months ago when I was looking to save a friend's business.
In the end I was not called on,and my friend lost his business,however I did raise the money to have on hand, in two days.That was a lot of money,and included selling Australian shares.
Cash.We have enough to live on for a year or two,we both receive super as well.
What percentage of cash are you guys holding at the moment? I have about 60-40 split in favour of shares and I'm tempted to buy some of the more conservative stocks for the dividend yields, but i'm just wary of being too heavy in shares.
I have asked that question for a while. People believe a market crash is imminent (which it is), but when 2018-2050? Currently I am almost fully into Shares as I feel the crash is not yet upon us.
Leftfield
07-01-2018, 03:03 PM
Sorry I forgot about this thread.Lets start afresh.
Objectives;
Time frame 4 to 5 years
The portfolio is looking for dividend yield of 3% pa with the capacity to grow to 6% to 8%.
Low churn.......
My Left Field take on this is that 'Dividend Yield' is not always the 'best investment' strategy. Since 2013 I've been taking a contrary Left Field view, one more akin to that espoused by Jim Slater in his book 'The Zulu principle.' My key objective has been to grow my portfolio by Tax Free Capital Gains.
I've been investing in stocks where above average growth in earnings (EPS) is foremost while dividend yield (if any) is much less important. Examples are; ATM, PPH, SKO, XRO and THL. In 2017 I added RBC and ALF to my portfolio and expect these to shine in the future. I aim to hold for 3-5 years. By taking a longer term view, I am also less concerned about finding 'tops' and 'bottoms' as buying/selling opportunities. However I do use TA charts to find entry/exit points and rate TA equal with FA in my analysis. I always aim to find shares that will outperform the NZX 50.
To date, my average return, mainly from capital gains (yes, unrealised) has been north of 80% pa.
In terms of weighting I keep enough cash in the bank to allow me to live for 3 to 5 yrs without any return from my other share and property investments.
percy
08-01-2018, 07:31 AM
[QUOTE=percy;382887]I think I am like most posters on sharetrader;worried a lot of stocks are very expensive,hard to find under valued stocks,scared to sell anything,because bank returns are very low.
Above posted 10-10-2012.
Some things just get harder..lol
Left Field.Great results.Jim Slater changed my way of investing too.I did forget to say that as well as dividend growth,I was expecting share price growth as well.All the shares I quoted, I would expect to double within the next four or five years,driven by eps growth.
waikare
08-01-2018, 08:52 AM
I have asked that question for a while. People believe a market crash is imminent (which it is), but when 2018-2050? Currently I am almost fully into Shares as I feel the crash is not yet upon us.
I have a little cash in for when the markets head south, but I have been waiting for the crash to come last 6 months or so, and still waiting.
Leftfield
08-01-2018, 10:47 AM
Percy - thank you. I suspect I have been lucky, particularly with ATM. That said, the harder I work at share investing the luckier I get!.
BTW along the way, your posts have been a great help. I recall one where you revealed your 'ILFS strategy' (ie Buy 2000 shares at $1, when they move to $3, sell 1000 shares and you are left with 1,000 (Free) shares worth $3k and a further $3000 to invest elsewhere.) I Love Free Stuff too!
Waikare - IMHO, you may be left 'waiting' for a long time. Best to take little steps and build-up slowly. Using Percy's ILFS strategy will help protect you should a downside event happen.
FXTrader
08-01-2018, 05:04 PM
Left Field - as someone who's very near retirement, I guess your approach would work for someone in my position if you were able to have 3-5 years of cash held aside to cover living costs in the event of market crash. And that's a choice I do have but my concern would be something major happening where I'm forever looking for a return to previous heights that subsequently doesn't look like happening, as compared with the dividend strategy and comfort of knowing that I have still solid dividend paying stocks that maintain the lifestyle potentially forever, and I can let my kids worry about the share price in due course (hopefully a long time away).
hardt
08-01-2018, 05:09 PM
Left Field - as someone who's very near retirement, I guess your approach would work for someone in my position if you were able to have 3-5 years of cash held aside to cover living costs in the event of market crash. And that's a choice I do have but my concern would be something major happening where I'm forever looking for a return to previous heights that subsequently doesn't look like happening, as compared with the dividend strategy and comfort of knowing that I have still solid dividend paying stocks that maintain the lifestyle potentially forever, and I can let my kids worry about the share price in due course (hopefully a long time away).
To join a conversation I am not a part of: that is exactly the endpoint of why I am investing... to one day be able to retire young and live very well off an income based portfolio with some funds set aside for VC and charity...
steveb
08-01-2018, 08:08 PM
well ok but it really comes down to how much risk you are prepared to take.
We have Percy with his sensible tips with the majority of his stocks paying a nice dividend and a nice percentage increase in the SP. Then we have Left Field with his more aggressive approach to investment.
I for one took the Percy approach for a number of years and eagerly awaited the nice dividends from AIR SPK AIA SKC etc
but I found the SP of most of my so called blue chip stocks were going nowhere.We had the Greek crisis,the chinese crisis for SKC etc.
So 6 months ago I took the Left Field approach.I had some ATM that I paid under $2.00 for but I have bought more at $3.30 and $6.90.I have continued to increase my holding in Pushpay even buying last week at $4.17.I even have a small investment in NTL.But my point is I monitor the market all day,I look for trends and I look for bargains.If you can't afford the time to monitor the markets and do your own research the Percy approach is for you,if you can afford the time take the Left Field approach it's a lot more fun!
Leftfield
08-01-2018, 09:29 PM
Good discussion folks and thanks for the feedback on the Left Field strategy… I feared you all might think me a tab crazy!
FXT Trader, Criket Fan & Cgcc – Every year I’ve been investing there have been calls that the market is ‘overheated’ and that “a crash is imminent.’ One day the comments will be right, but until that time IMHO;
a.) You need to have skin in the game to get ahead.
b.) With skin in the game, you are motivated by fear of failure, to take care with your investments like no one else can.
c.) Should market conditions change, you can take precautions. Prune your portfolio, take your gains etc. A couple of years ago the USSR invaded the Ukraine, jet planes fell out of the sky, oil prices were crazy, and the share market looked bleak. Oh yes it was also October (a bad month some say) and Jewish religious types were quoting the end of the market or some 7 year shemitah ‘rest’ period, (look it up.) In times like this I reduced my share investments by about 50%, sat it out, and quickly re-invested once the scare was past. Several months passed, the market shot ahead and I was again ‘well positioned.’
d.) When a ‘crash’ eventually happens, it will only take me about 10 trades to entirely exit the market should I need to. As a small trader, it is much easier for me to flick in and out of shares. I consider this a great advantage for me compared to the large institutions, and margin traders etc who may be forced to sell millions in adverse times.
Hardt – you will do well starting early. The reason I adopted my strategy is that I am retired already and considered my retirement ‘marginal’ with a portfolio too small to provide enough in dividends. I needed to grow my capital before I could enjoy sufficient dividend income. I’ll slowly aquire more dividend stock as time goes on and am hoping ATM will become a major divi source.
Steveb – Well said and good on you. Hope it works out well. In the meantime, like you I enjoy the fun of daily involvement in what has become a thoroughly rewarding hobby!!
troyvdh
08-01-2018, 09:39 PM
For what it's worth...There is a difference between money and wealth......2nd....never stand in front of a freight train....RYM.
Lewylewylewy
09-01-2018, 07:36 AM
Sticking with the "where to invest" I'm having fun with my small gamble on asx wbt. I figure my tiny investment could grow to pay of my mortgage or more if things work out. I figure there's also some money to be made on trading in and out there if you're inclined. If the price drops I'll be buying more.
On the nzx i think fph is approaching top up price. Other then that, sum always has a low pe.
Mickey
09-01-2018, 07:49 AM
Great chat folks and I've found the different perspectives very interesting reading. For me it highlights the various ways in which we are using the share market to meet our individual needs, whether it be trading on margins, investing for growth, investing for dividends or a combination of these. I'm about 5 years out from retirement and so my strategy is to mostly acquire dividend paying stocks such as GNE, SPK, HBL, HLG, MEL, STU, & GMT to build up a regular dividend income. I occasionally pick up growth stocks for a 1-3 year horizon but rarely do I do any short-term trading on margins. These days, I ignore the zig zag nature of market hype as the market tends to be a bit irrational at times but I do use periods of volatility as opportunities for top-ups on my key dividend investment shares, so I do keep a cash reserve in my HBL on-call account for that purpose. I guess the key thing here is to develop and implement an investment strategy that meets your own investment requirements. It should be reviewed occasionally to make sure it remains appropriate, as some of the members above have eluded to in their comments.
I've learnt a lot from ST contributors and value the views and opinions expressed. All the best for 2018.
Putty
09-01-2018, 09:28 AM
I'd start off with the preface that I'm just in my twenties, so I think my goals/priorities in regards to my investments are probably different to most I've read thus far.
Long term (5-10 years):
Kiwisaver: 50%
Short term (1 year):
PPH: 12.5%
SKO: 12.5%
SUM: 12.5%
THL: 12.5%
This structure allows me to:
- Have half my share investments in a long term focus (and out of my own reach :)))
- Keep me entertained by taking punts on a select few companies (thanks to the help of various sources of information, including here)
2017: AIR, FPH, PPH, SUM
I add to it on a yearly basis - to match my Kiwisaver to keep it 50/50
What is everyone's thoughts on Kiwisaver as in investment option? It's beneficial to me as I'm yet to purchase my first home (so can pull it for that), and the benefits of my employer matching my contributions make it worthwhile in my eyes.
Beagle
09-01-2018, 11:11 AM
I think you're on a good path Putty and what you suggest is a very good strategy for you. Likewise Mickey is working a very sensible strategy for his investment objectives at his age.
What I think the two above posts beautifully illustrate is there's no one right answer for one's investment strategy. It needs to be tailored to fit your age and requirements.
In my mid 50's I probably have 10-15 years to go to retirement so I like to think approx. a 60 / 40 mix of growth and income shares is right for me.
I am presently looking at international diversification, probably through an ETF or managed fund. I bought some TEM (Templeton Emerging Markets) the other day as a first step in this. Easy peasy as its listed on the NZX and its trading at a ~ 11% discount to NTA and is a well respected fund manager with a multi decade history. Some talk is the emerging markets are at an earlier stage of the bull cycle...time will tell.
Apart from that I am investing for growth in OCA, SUM, THL, PPH, ATM, Synlait, sorry forgot the code) small positions in ERD, Serko and RBD all added this year and income / growth in HLG and income in GNE, GMT, ARG and one or two others.
Onion
09-01-2018, 11:58 AM
What is everyone's thoughts on Kiwisaver as in investment option? It's beneficial to me as I'm yet to purchase my first home (so can pull it for that), and the benefits of my employer matching my contributions make it worthwhile in my eyes.
You should contribute the minimum to Kiwisaver that qualifies to get any government subsidy and the full employer contribution. Investments beyond that level should be directed somewhere that offers flexibility - i.e. the ability to invest in a house or a business or whatever investments come along in future.
My main point is that additional investments should NOT go to Kiwisaver as there are too many restrictions.
Another consideration with Kiwisaver is funds in it are hard to get out before 65. eg, sick and not able to work, expenses bleeding you dry and then you have to prostrate yourself in front of kiwisaver plebs to prove hardship that they may deign to hand over YOUR money.
Sideshow Bob
09-01-2018, 12:52 PM
What is everyone's thoughts on Kiwisaver as in investment option? It's beneficial to me as I'm yet to purchase my first home (so can pull it for that), and the benefits of my employer matching my contributions make it worthwhile in my eyes.
Guaranteed 100% return is hard to get anywhere......
And while retirement is a long way off, the power of compounding interest is huge - especially starting early, with a 30-40 year timeline. Yeah, there are disadvantages with having it locked in - but is a set & almost forget type of thing - look at it once/twice a year to ensure fund is performing OK and right for your investment mix.
pierre
09-01-2018, 01:01 PM
You should contribute the minimum to Kiwisaver that qualifies to get any government subsidy and the full employer contribution. Investments beyond that level should be directed somewhere that offers flexibility - i.e. the ability to invest in a house or a business or whatever investments come along in future.
My main point is that additional investments should NOT go to Kiwisaver as there are too many restrictions.
Of course, if you have additional funds to invest and you're happy with the returns your Kiwisaver provider is achieving, you can always open a non-Kiwisaver account with them that will allow access if/when required.
minimoke
09-01-2018, 01:31 PM
My main point is that additional investments should NOT go to Kiwisaver as there are too many restrictio.ns.
I totally agree with that point. I dont think the returns in Kiwsaver accounts are particularly spectacular. Balanced funds around 7%, Growth around 9% and conservative around 5%. I reckon put in as much as you need for tax / employer benefits (because there is no way you can better that as a return) but after that make sure any extra cash goes into your own separately managed portfolio. Put the 1.5% in fees into your own hands
I use kiwisaver as part of my diversification strategy:
Fantastic return (care of govt) and super conservative exposure to global markets (even the 'growth" funds have EFTs, currency hedges and the likes of Komatsu, Google and Citigroup).
I don't buy pure property shares because my house provides exposure to that market.
So the rest can be a wide range of NZ and Aus shares (mixture of industries and risk levels including the usual suspects and some left field ones from Aus).
Beagle
09-01-2018, 05:29 PM
Especially for my good mate Couta1...I boosted my diversification ever so "slightly" today. Bought some units in TWF, Total World fund listed on the NZX. Easy $Kiwi investment in smartshares and owns units in Vanguard Total world fund ETF which holds over...wait for it...this is not a typo...9,000 shares in different countries around the world...so I have one piece of beagle fur invested in each company :D Made an easy "no effort whatsoever required on the part of unit holders" 25% last year. Average return for the last decade has been just over 11% per annum which is pretty impressive.
Joshuatree
09-01-2018, 10:37 PM
Thats interesting, Roger hadn't seen that. Even though ETF's have low fees ( often re 0.3%)there will two layers of fees here,How does that stack up with TWF fees added on?
Joshuatree
09-01-2018, 10:53 PM
Found it TWF charge 0.56%
Vanguard expense ratio 0.11 %, pretty sharp. Unit trusts still around? Investment advisors prob still mourn the good old high fee days plus trailing fees etc.
GTM 3442
10-01-2018, 02:41 AM
Where to invest?
This year it's India (NYSE:INCO Columbia India Consumer ETF), global infrastructure (RARE), and the PIMCO BOND ETF.
Possibly global property (excl US) with a predilection for industrial, as I think that retail (malls) property is going to do poorly with the closure of the US chain stores.
And maybe a little more into Europe if the STOXX 600, SMI & DAX keep trucking on.
In New Zealand, it's probably limited to well-rated bonds at time of issue to hold to maturity. And bottom-feeding anything decent that has a black swan knock at the door.
flyer
10-01-2018, 08:06 AM
Beagle - when you say you invested in TWF, do you just buy a quantity and leave it alone or do you do a regular purchase of more. Same with all those buying into ETF's, do you all do regular contributions. I just had a look at TEM etc, been great over the last 2 years as has TWF. I may get some to compliment my Kiwisaver. Currently hold AIR, ATM, CEN, OCA, SKC and TGH.
Beagle
10-01-2018, 08:28 AM
Beagle - when you say you invested in TWF, do you just buy a quantity and leave it alone or do you do a regular purchase of more. Same with all those buying into ETF's, do you all do regular contributions. I just had a look at TEM etc, been great over the last 2 years as has TWF. I may get some to compliment my Kiwisaver. Currently hold AIR, ATM, CEN, OCA, SKC and TGH.
I'm looking at buying a quantity and leaving it alone, (but may add more from time to time) but if you go onto www.smartshares.co.nz they have options for regular monthly contributions which could suit some people in terms of dollar cost averaging their investment over time. I really think the left wing green coalition with Winston Peter's...the grand social experiment if you like, is going to sap business confidence this year and could stifle economic growth a bit so I am looking at repositioning some of my portfolio into overseas funds. TEM had had great performance but the portfolio manager has just resigned so unsure about who will be appointed so some caution there is warranted and they are stock pickers too so the skills of the new portfolio manager will affect future returns and emerging markets make up just 9% of the global market so this fund is higher risk than TWF. TWF are an ETF so just track the world index but with over 9,000 shares is a very easy way in $N.Z. dollars to invest in a very very broad range of stocks from all regions. You can buy on market or invest direct through the smartshares website. Note, if you invest direct with smartshares, their next monthly allocation for want of a better word is 22 January and your application and funds need to be with them by then. They then allocate new units based on the net asset value at the end of the month, (January). One off $30 fee for first investment, thereafter nil. If you want to participate in this global rally before the end of this month you need to buy the units on market.
Benny1
10-01-2018, 08:34 AM
Beagle - when you say you invested in TWF, do you just buy a quantity and leave it alone or do you do a regular purchase of more. Same with all those buying into ETF's, do you all do regular contributions. I just had a look at TEM etc, been great over the last 2 years as has TWF. I may get some to compliment my Kiwisaver. Currently hold AIR, ATM, CEN, OCA, SKC and TGH.
Hi Flyer.. I currently hold Smartshare funds FNZ OZY & USF did a small lump sum in each to start and do small monthly contribution to each... Just treating them as a top up to my kiwisaver and work super schemes..
Hold THL OCA ARV MCK HLB BLT EVO.. think that's it 😊
Beagle
10-01-2018, 08:53 AM
Found it TWF charge 0.56%
Vanguard expense ratio 0.11 %, pretty sharp. Unit trusts still around? Investment advisors prob still mourn the good old high fee days plus trailing fees etc.
Very sharp. People can invest in Vanguard direct and I am sure some do but (from my limited understanding of it, it would appear), then there's the overseas brokerage buying in the U.K. at overseas brokerage rates plus the usual very hefty currency conversion margin and the same very expensive overseas brokerage and currency conversion fees, (assuming you want to convert the funds back to $Kiwi at the end) again when you want to sell. There may also be annual fees from one's broker to hold overseas shares on account in their system. Some I have seen charge an annual fee of 0.5% for this. I understand you can still buy certificated shares in the U.K. which would get around the brokers holding them in trust annual charge but brokerage rates for certificated holdings I have seen are generally around 2% plus add say another 1% for currency conversion so approx. 3% to buy and again to sell, a total of perhaps 6%. I would speculate you'd have to hold for many many years, (about 12 years by my calculation if buying certificated holding direct in Vanguard) to make a direct holding in Vanguard more attractive than simply investing through smartshares. I can't try and predict more than one year ahead let alone 12 where I think things are headed so a certificated holding probably won't work out more efficient for me.
ETF's are increasing in popularity at the expense of managed funds charging high management fees and often ludicrous performance fees for underperforming the relevant index. I can think of one local fund manager that charges 1.5% annual management fees plus 15% performance fee that has woefully underperformed most of the relevant index's they invest in. I am sure there are many others that can no longer justify their hefty charges.
hardt
10-01-2018, 11:41 AM
Very sharp. People can invest in Vanguard direct and I am sure some do but (from my limited understanding of it, it would appear), then there's the overseas brokerage buying in the U.K. at overseas brokerage rates plus the usual very hefty currency conversion margin and the same very expensive overseas brokerage and currency conversion fees, (assuming you want to convert the funds back to $Kiwi at the end) again when you want to sell. There may also be annual fees from one's broker to hold overseas shares on account in their system. Some I have seen charge an annual fee of 0.5% for this. I understand you can still buy certificated shares in the U.K. which would get around the brokers holding them in trust annual charge but brokerage rates for certificated holdings I have seen are generally around 2% plus add say another 1% for currency conversion so approx. 3% to buy and again to sell, a total of perhaps 6%. I would speculate you'd have to hold for many many years, (about 12 years by my calculation if buying certificated holding direct in Vanguard) to make a direct holding in Vanguard more attractive than simply investing through smartshares. I can't try and predict more than one year ahead let alone 12 where I think things are headed so a certificated holding probably won't work out more efficient for me.
ETF's are increasing in popularity at the expense of managed funds charging high management fees and often ludicrous performance fees for underperforming the relevant index. I can think of one local fund manager that charges 1.5% annual management fees plus 15% performance fee that has woefully underperformed most of the relevant index's they invest in. I am sure there are many others that can no longer justify their hefty charges.
Or you could buy an MSCI ETF that charges a flat 0.24% management fee and nothing else, giving you exposure with barely any premium to the portfolio +1.2% yield or something.
Buy it with IB/Ameritrade and you get spot prices on the currency exchanged.
You will find a lot of funds have some product of MSCI as one of their largest holdings.
Joshuatree
10-01-2018, 11:44 AM
Very competitive now hence fees have dropped more. An awful lot of money gone in.
The Three Largest Players Have A 70% Market Share In $4 Trillion ... (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi41Ify3svYAhUJerwKHVEvC5kQFggnMAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fgreatsp eculations%2F2017%2F05%2F17%2Fthe-three-largest-players-have-a-70-market-share-in-4-trillion-global-etf-industry%2F&usg=AOvVaw0EHGnb949rwvkBbC8ARWZ1)
Major von Tempsky
10-01-2018, 12:53 PM
I'm too old for the Kiwisaver lark and probably wouldn't do it anyway due to natural arrogance and self confidence. I remember surrendering my Govt Super to buy a decent car while everyone tut-tutted but now in retirement I have a decent car (different one), decent house, a flat, a decent income and decent assets so, yah boo sux.
And no, I'm not diversified into insignificant mediocrity. I have a big holding of one income stock, the same as Craic (but maybe I should diversify that into some smaller holdings of electricity stocks) and a big holding of a growth stock (no, I'm not telling you because you fellas would only jump into it and ruin the price when I want to buy some more :-) . I keep reading the field to see if there are any other growth stocks yet that tick my boxes but nothing yet....
Jonboyz
10-01-2018, 12:58 PM
I've recently become a big fan of passive investment, although the majority of my current investments are individual stocks. Although, I own several US stocks I wouldn't buy Vanguard directly on the US market because of fees etc that Beagle mentions. Of the small amount of passive ETF's I do hold most are invested through investnow (but also have kiwisaver in Simplicity which is a passive tracker fund as well). Investnow is fee-free so my preference is to get whatever I need through this portal first and if I can't then through a broker.
I'm hoping for high returns from the EUF.NZ fund over the next year or so, as the US economy slows down and the europeans ramp up.
I currently only have about 5% (~$50k) of my investment portfolio in passive funds through investnow - MDZ.NZ, FNZ.NZ, TWF.NZ, EUF.NZ and Vanguard International Select Shares. They don't have NZB.NZ (Smartshares NZ Bonds) so I invested in those directly through Smartshares.
I have a large inheritance coming out later this year that I'll be splitting between EUF.NZ, FNZ.NZ and TWF.NZ. That should bring my passive investments up to my target of about 30% of my total portfolio.
thestg
10-01-2018, 01:14 PM
I'm looking at buying a quantity and leaving it alone, (but may add more from time to time) but if you go onto www.smartshares.co.nz (http://www.smartshares.co.nz) they have options for regular monthly contributions which could suit some people in terms of dollar cost averaging their investment over time. I really think the left wing green coalition with Winston Peter's...the grand social experiment if you like, is going to sap business confidence this year and could stifle economic growth a bit so I am looking at repositioning some of my portfolio into overseas funds. TEM had had great performance but the portfolio manager has just resigned so unsure about who will be appointed so some caution there is warranted and they are stock pickers too so the skills of the new portfolio manager will affect future returns and emerging markets make up just 9% of the global market so this fund is higher risk than TWF. TWF are an ETF so just track the world index but with over 9,000 shares is a very easy way in $N.Z. dollars to invest in a very very broad range of stocks from all regions. You can buy on market or invest direct through the smartshares website. Note, if you invest direct with smartshares, their next monthly allocation for want of a better word is 22 January and your application and funds need to be with them by then. They then allocate new units based on the net asset value at the end of the month, (January). One off $30 fee for first investment, thereafter nil. If you want to participate in this global rally before the end of this month you need to buy the units on market.
Thanks Beagle, I started an investment in TWF under Smart Shares this afternoon.
Very straightforward process & only took a few minutes.
Made a small deposit & set up a small monthly contribution.
I will leave it to do its own thing as this will be my funeral cover.
Hope it grows over many years.
morphs
10-01-2018, 02:06 PM
One thing to be aware of with these Smartshares ETFs is that they are Listed PIEs. As they are companies, that means they are subject to the FIF regime and must use the FDR method to pay tax on 5% of the opening value of the underlying investments irrespective of the performance over the year. The CV method is not available for companies.
This is not an issue when markets are rising strongly as has been in the recent past, but when there is a flat or down year, the company (and therefore the holder) will have to pay this tax regardless. If you held the ETF outside of Smartshares, or use a unit trust like Vanguard Select through Investnow, you have the option of using the CV method for your FIF calculation reducing or eliminating the tax in those years.
Smartshares keep things simple, but there is a cost to pay. Probably not significant for smaller amounts.
Beagle
10-01-2018, 03:13 PM
One thing to be aware of with these Smartshares ETFs is that they are Listed PIEs. As they are companies, that means they are subject to the FIF regime and must use the FDR method to pay tax on 5% of the opening value of the underlying investments irrespective of the performance over the year. The CV method is not available for companies.
This is not an issue when markets are rising strongly as has been in the recent past, but when there is a flat or down year, the company (and therefore the holder) will have to pay this tax regardless. If you held the ETF outside of Smartshares, or use a unit trust like Vanguard Select through Investnow, you have the option of using the CV method for your FIF calculation reducing or eliminating the tax in those years.
Smartshares keep things simple, but there is a cost to pay. Probably not significant for smaller amounts.
Makes things really simple for investors though which is what a LOT of people want.
voltage
10-01-2018, 04:11 PM
I buy vanguard ETFs on the australian stock exchange, fees are much lower than smartshares ETFs.
I too like to keep things simple but there is a real cost for this in NZ.
couta1
10-01-2018, 04:22 PM
I don't buy anything that I don't directly control except kiwi saver where I put in the minimum to get the tax credit each year. EFTs are the last place I want to be in a Black Swan event.
Beagle
10-01-2018, 06:41 PM
I buy vanguard ETFs on the australian stock exchange, fees are much lower than smartshares ETFs.
I too like to keep things simple but there is a real cost for this in NZ.
What ticker codes do you have for them on the Aussie exchange mate ?
morphs
10-01-2018, 07:03 PM
What ticker codes do you have for them on the Aussie exchange mate ?
They are all listed here: http://www.asx.com.au/products/etf/managed-funds-etp-product-list.htm
Onion
11-01-2018, 10:45 AM
I buy vanguard ETFs on the australian stock exchange, fees are much lower than smartshares ETFs.
I too like to keep things simple but there is a real cost for this in NZ.
Presumably there are tax implications for going via ASX. The investment won't be a PIE any more so accounting for income will be more complex.
Does buying direct on ASX bring the investment into the FIF regime? That complexity is something I am happy to avoid.
Using the IRD's FIF Exemption Determination (https://brc1.ird.govt.nz/web-determinations/screen/FIF_Exemption_Determination/en-GB/summary?user=guest) page I couldn't find any EFT that qualified under the Australian share exemption (however many of the ASX codes are not simple 3 character codes and the IRD checker doesn't allow them to be checked).
The IRD page says that the non qualifying "share":
This means income from the shares will generally be taxed under the: fair dividend rate (FDR) method, comparative value (CV) method, cost method (CM), deemed rate of return (DRR)
Beagle
11-01-2018, 11:57 AM
Presumably there are tax implications for going via ASX. The investment won't be a PIE any more so accounting for income will be more complex.
Does buying direct on ASX bring the investment into the FIF regime? That complexity is something I am happy to avoid.
Using the IRD's FIF Exemption Determination (https://brc1.ird.govt.nz/web-determinations/screen/FIF_Exemption_Determination/en-GB/summary?user=guest) page I couldn't find any EFT that qualified under the Australian share exemption (however many of the ASX codes are not simple 3 character codes and the IRD checker doesn't allow them to be checked).
The IRD page says that the non qualifying "share":
I believe you are right and that the new exemption for Australian shares does not extend to overseas ETF's listed on the ASX. A LOT of people don't want the complexity of the FIF scheme including me so am happy to invest via a listed PIE here. Further, investment in Australian listed companies through the likes of ANZ securities will still see you clipped for more than 1% each way on the exchange rate plus their discounted brokerage rate. Close to 3% for your average Joe Bloggs using standard ANZ securities exchange and brokerage rates for the complete purchase and sale turnaround, (about 6 years Smartshares fees)...sure there are more efficient ways to handle the exchange rate but again can the average Joe Bloggs be bothered ? On top of that people then have to calculate all the FIF regime stuff...again can people be bothered with all this or do they have to pay a professional to do it for them ? All things to consider in the overall scheme of things.
Onion
11-01-2018, 12:31 PM
Another way to invest globally is via Superlife (https://superlife.co.nz/) (another NZX company). They, for example, offer investment into the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (http://smartshares.co.nz/types-of-funds/smartlarge/total-world).
Fees are 0.56%. PIE tax treatment. Regular and lump sum contributions are possible.
I haven't compared fees with the SmartShares equivalent.
They have other funds and many combinations of funds (https://superlife.co.nz/investments/investment-options).
You can switch your investment from one investment option to another investment option at any time free of charge.
Beagle
11-01-2018, 01:27 PM
Another way to invest globally is via Superlife (https://superlife.co.nz/) (another NZX company). They, for example, offer investment into the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (http://smartshares.co.nz/types-of-funds/smartlarge/total-world).
Fees are 0.56%. PIE tax treatment. Regular and lump sum contributions are possible.
I haven't compared fees with the SmartShares equivalent.
They have other funds and many combinations of funds (https://superlife.co.nz/investments/investment-options).
Fees are the same as Smartshares...not surprising seeing as Superlife is managed by Smartshares :)
morphs
11-01-2018, 03:25 PM
On top of that people then have to calculate all the FIF regime stuff...again can people be bothered with all this or do they have to pay a professional to do it for them ? All things to consider in the overall scheme of things.
Suppose you have a 100k Investment and the market value is flat or down for the tax year (to 31 March). If held in a Smartshares PIE it will be required to declare FDR income of $5,000 (5%) and pay tax on it at 28% company tax rate, so a tax of $1,400. If held directly, the investor can use the CV method for the year resulting in $0 tax owed.
If the amounts are larger or there are multiple down years, the tax cost to hold via a PIE increases.
kiwico
11-01-2018, 03:57 PM
Suppose you have a 100k Investment and the market value is flat or down for the tax year (to 31 March). If held in a Smartshares PIE it will be required to declare FDR income of $5,000 (5%) and pay tax on it at 28% company tax rate, so a tax of $1,400. If held directly, the investor can use the CV method for the year resulting in $0 tax owed.
I agree - that's why I use Interactive Brokers for Vanguard ETFs and buy them on the NYSE - much lower transaction costs and much less lost in the transfer from NZD to USD (and back). Just don't die while holding US held shares/ETFs!
Beagle
11-01-2018, 04:30 PM
Suppose you have a 100k Investment and the market value is flat or down for the tax year (to 31 March). If held in a Smartshares PIE it will be required to declare FDR income of $5,000 (5%) and pay tax on it at 28% company tax rate, so a tax of $1,400. If held directly, the investor can use the CV method for the year resulting in $0 tax owed.
If the amounts are larger or there are multiple down years, the tax cost to hold via a PIE increases.
Thanks for your suggestion, one I may look into but one also needs to consider how many years out of say the last 10 the fund has had a lower performance than 5%, (none? ) brokerage and currency costs both ways and the time and effort required to establish a new account with a broker for overseas purchase and sale and whether they have to pay a professional to do the FIF calculations for them. Smartshares on the other hand offer a no brokerage entry in $N.Z. and no FIF hassles. No completely right or wrong answers, just what suits people best.
percy
11-01-2018, 04:35 PM
Just don't die while holding US held shares/ETFs!
Sage advice.!
Jonboyz
11-01-2018, 10:20 PM
I agree - that's why I use Interactive Brokers for Vanguard ETFs and buy them on the NYSE - much lower transaction costs and much less lost in the transfer from NZD to USD (and back). Just don't die while holding US held shares/ETFs!
What happens? You mean your next of kin can’t inherit US held investments? My US stocks are held by ASB as custodian (not direct holdings) so I expect my nok won’t have any problems accessing them.
kiora
12-01-2018, 04:35 AM
couta :that"s the smartest thing I have read all day.The majority of investor's in shares over the last few years should be feeling quite smug now BUT Watch the stampede through a tight exit if there is a 'significant event'
Who is buying ETF's ?The least savy or the more savy?Time will tell.
BlackCross
12-01-2018, 11:02 AM
I'm totally confused now regarding the overseas Smartshares funds and their standing within a FIF. I'm told that if I just owned Smartshares overseas funds (TWF, ASD etc) then they would not be caught within the FIF regime and even if my holdings wwere greater than $50,000 I would not have to declare them as a FIF. Tax would have been paid by Smartsheres. However, if I also owned other FIF investments they would then count towards the total value of a FIF? Bit of a bugger as I've deliberately kept my other overseas investments just below the $50,000 threshold as the FIF thing is a nightmare for me and now my Smartshares holding would push me well over..
I'm totally confused now regarding the overseas Smartshares funds and their standing within a FIF. I'm told that if I just owned Smartshares overseas funds (TWF, ASD etc) then they would not be caught within the FIF regime and even if my holdings wwere greater than $50,000 I would not have to declare them as a FIF. Tax would have been paid by Smartsheres. However, if I also owned other FIF investments they would then count towards the total value of a FIF? Bit of a bugger as I've deliberately kept my other overseas investments just below the $50,000 threshold as the FIF thing is a nightmare for me and now my Smartshares holding would push me well over..
Unnecessary worry on your part as I understand it. The fund would be subject to FIF but you with a share in the fund are not.
Beagle
12-01-2018, 11:13 AM
I need to talk to them but my preliminary thinking is that as the Smartshares funds are PIE's (Portfolio investment entities) and they pay the FIF taxes under N.Z. tax law these are PIE's not FIF's so you are okay with just under $50,000 in other FIF's as well as Smartshares funds or up to $100,000 if owned jointly.
kiwico
12-01-2018, 11:22 AM
What happens? You mean your next of kin can’t inherit US held investments? My US stocks are held by ASB as custodian (not direct holdings) so I expect my nok won’t have any problems accessing them.
It's always a good idea to try to not die anyway but refer to Voltage's comments below from the Should I actively avoid FIF investments thread (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10094-Should-I-actively-avoid-FIF-investments/page2).
Jonathan, you must beware of other issues with US ETFs. The main one is death duty tax is liable on any holding over $60000 for non US residents. This is why you need to look a non US domiciled ETfs.
Beagle
12-01-2018, 11:31 AM
Hmmm...wonder if that just applies to the U.S. ETF holdings ? Another reason to keep it simple with Smartshares ?
My good mate's father in law who has a net worth of north of US$30m has spent the last 3 1/2 years with lawyers and accountants fighting death duties from various countries tax jurisdictions since his wife passed away. The problem being that at various times in their lives they've lived in a variety of different countries and now almost all of them want their cut ! Not sure how much he's spent on lawyers and accountants so far but there is speculation within the family it could be up to $1m now :eek2:
morphs
12-01-2018, 12:38 PM
Hmmm...wonder if that just applies to the U.S. ETF holdings ? :eek2:
It is not just ETF holdings, it is any US domiciled investment (Direct Shares, US Mutual Funds etc.). If you die with more than US$60,000 of these you will be subject to US estate taxes on the balance. How they are able to administer/enforce this is debatable. If the shares are owned by a trust or company you are probably OK because they would not form part of your estate. If it worries you, probably best not to own US ETFs directly. There are ASX equivalents not domiciled in the US, or use the Smartshares wrapper to avoid the entire issue, accepting the extra cost.
morphs
12-01-2018, 12:48 PM
I used to try and avoid FIF because I didn't understand it. It seemed complex and scary. But once I understood it, it's actually pretty straightforward. In some cases it is a big advantage. For example, if you own Aussie unit trusts, they must distribute all their capital gains every year on June 30th. If they have a good year that could be a significant distribution. If you are outside FIF (under 50K) you will have to pay tax on the full distribution as income but if you account for it under FIF (FDR), you only pay tax on 5% of the opening value no matter what the distributions are.
my understanding is that conversely if you are subject to FIF but you earned less than the 5% imputed return then if you actually declare what you did get then you pay tax on that and not the 5%. So as long as you're prepared to do the return accurately the 5% doesnt necessarily have to be paid.
(Discl - not tax advice)
Beagle
12-01-2018, 01:27 PM
http://www.ird.govt.nz/resources/7/6/766e61804d5325af8370e7057ca1dd2d/ir461.pdf
Before anyone asks, NO, I am not going to answer any questions about this. If you have any questions after reading this you should consult your accountant.
my understanding is that conversely if you are subject to FIF but you earned less than the 5% imputed return then if you actually declare what you did get then you pay tax on that and not the 5%. So as long as you're prepared to do the return accurately the 5% doesnt necessarily have to be paid.
(Discl - not tax advice)
Known as the CV method of calculation.
If you use the IRD calculator it will come up with the lower amount to pay of the FDR or the CV. It is a bloody hard calculator to use so I just do the calculation manually.
I used to try and avoid FIF because I didn't understand it. It seemed complex and scary. But once I understood it, it's actually pretty straightforward. In some cases it is a big advantage. For example, if you own Aussie unit trusts, they must distribute all their capital gains every year on June 30th. If they have a good year that could be a significant distribution. If you are outside FIF (under 50K) you will have to pay tax on the full distribution as income but if you account for it under FIF (FDR), you only pay tax on 5% of the opening value no matter what the distributions are.
At least I am not the only one that sees it this way. I would hate for it to be removed.
morphs
12-01-2018, 03:50 PM
Known as the CV method of calculation.
If you use the IRD calculator it will come up with the lower amount to pay of the FDR or the CV. It is a bloody hard calculator to use so I just do the calculation manually.
Yes, that is right. Under FIF, the maximum gain that is taxable is 5%. Anything less than that, you use the CV method.
Jonboyz
13-01-2018, 01:49 PM
It's always a good idea to try to not die anyway but refer to Voltage's comments below from the Should I actively avoid FIF investments thread (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10094-Should-I-actively-avoid-FIF-investments/page2).
A casual look at estate taxes on inheritances shows that it is only on amounts more than $5.49 million that are taxed. Source:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleaebeling/2016/10/25/irs-announces-2017-estate-and-gift-tax-limits-the-11-million-tax-break/#76bb82453b70
Unless there is a seperate tax for overseas investors who die.?
morphs
15-01-2018, 02:08 PM
A casual look at estate taxes on inheritances shows that it is only on amounts more than $5.49 million that are taxed. Source:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleaebeling/2016/10/25/irs-announces-2017-estate-and-gift-tax-limits-the-11-million-tax-break/#76bb82453b70
Unless there is a seperate tax for overseas investors who die.?
There most certainly is: http://perkinsaccounting.com/u-s-estate-tax-for-non-us-decedents/ If you were lucky enough to die with, say, $1M in US assets, they would tax $940,000 of it at 40%. So, a tax payable of US$376,000. Nice.
kiwico
15-01-2018, 03:31 PM
Interesting to see that the Vanguard US Total Market Shares Index ETF on the ASX (VTS) and the Vanguard All-World ex-US Shares Index ETF (ASX code VEU) both list US estate tax as potentially being applicable even though the prospectus for each states "For the avoidance of doubt, Vanguard US Total Market Shares Index ETF securities are not intended to be sold to US Persons as defined under Regulation S of the US federal securities laws."
Lewylewylewy
15-01-2018, 05:25 PM
Fph at buying price at the moment. May get slightly cheaper.
Also scl a good bet with better than bank div.
RupertBear
15-01-2018, 06:41 PM
Fph at buying price at the moment. May get slightly cheaper.
Also scl a good bet with better than bank div.
Bought a wee few FPH today for long term hold. As you said it may still go down...
Onion
15-01-2018, 08:22 PM
Bought a wee few FPH today for long term hold. As you said it may still go down...
I took advantage of the dip at this time last year (dip started in Aug '16), having regarded them as perennially expensive, and didn't need to stay nervous about the trend for long. The 5 year SP graph is pretty impressive and the fluctuations haven't lasted for long. SP hasn't been under to 200 MA since 2013.
Sgt Pepper
16-01-2018, 09:10 AM
Rubicon will be the star performer. Probably will have an IPO of Arborgen in the USA.
morphs
16-01-2018, 10:05 AM
Interesting to see that the Vanguard US Total Market Shares Index ETF on the ASX (VTS) and the Vanguard All-World ex-US Shares Index ETF (ASX code VEU) both list US estate tax as potentially being applicable even though the prospectus for each states "For the avoidance of doubt, Vanguard US Total Market Shares Index ETF securities are not intended to be sold to US Persons as defined under Regulation S of the US federal securities laws."
Just out of interest, in which document did you find the reference to US estate tax for these securities (VTS/VEU)?
kiwico
16-01-2018, 03:04 PM
Just out of interest, in which document did you find the reference to US estate tax for these securities (VTS/VEU)?
It came from the prospectus listed on the Vanguard Australia site (https://www.vanguardinvestments.com.au/retail/ret/investments/product.html#/fundDetail/etf/portId=0991/?overview)- for example the ASX listed VEU ETF is still shown as US domiciled with the prospectus referring to the tax issues raised above.
My concern is that buying Vanguard ETFs on the ASX may have no effect on US estate tax given they appear to simply be an ASX listing of a US 'company'.
Jonboyz
16-01-2018, 08:55 PM
It came from the prospectus listed on the Vanguard Australia site (https://www.vanguardinvestments.com.au/retail/ret/investments/product.html#/fundDetail/etf/portId=0991/?overview)- for example the ASX listed VEU ETF is still shown as US domiciled with the prospectus referring to the tax issues raised above.
My concern is that buying Vanguard ETFs on the ASX may have no effect on US estate tax given they appear to simply be an ASX listing of a US 'company'.
And the same could then apply to Smartshares that invest in Vanguard ETFs.
kiwico
17-01-2018, 07:34 AM
If it's Smartshares doing the investing rather than an individual than as a company there wouldn't be a death of a natural person and therefore presumably no US estate tax. The issue appears to exist only if purchased directly by an individual.
morphs
17-01-2018, 11:18 AM
It came from the prospectus listed on the Vanguard Australia site (https://www.vanguardinvestments.com.au/retail/ret/investments/product.html#/fundDetail/etf/portId=0991/?overview)- for example the ASX listed VEU ETF is still shown as US domiciled with the prospectus referring to the tax issues raised above.
My concern is that buying Vanguard ETFs on the ASX may have no effect on US estate tax given they appear to simply be an ASX listing of a US 'company'.
I think you are correct. From a US estate tax perspective there is no difference buying a US domiciled ETF on the ASX as opposed to its home exchange. I notice though that there appears to be an Estate Tax treaty between Australia and the US that would eliminate the tax in most cases: http://www.ustaxes.com.au/credentials/u-s-australia-estate-tax-treaty/ However, that would not apply to a New Zealander who owned the ETF via the ASX! My guess is that in practice, the ASX registrar is unlikely to care about this in the event of a transfer on the death of an individual. It would be up to the individual to comply with the tax laws.
In any case, it is probably best to stay away from any US domiciled investment (ETF or otherwise) if investing individually and you are concerned about the estate tax. Alternatively, use a trust or company as your investment vehicle and then it won't matter.
voltage
18-01-2018, 07:41 AM
You are quite right, do not hold in own name, with and online broker or full broker these shares are usually held in custodial and that I think is fine.
Lewylewylewy
26-01-2018, 10:42 PM
Fph looking good buying at the moment 😊
Jonboyz
27-01-2018, 11:00 AM
I'm looking at getting into some energy company shares. Looks like Mercury is the favourite at the moment here, but any thoughts about it's value vs meridian, contact, genesis etc?
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