The charts are breaking down

[winner69]

It is all the charts fault .. drillie, I think that 3000 I mentioned is on the cards ... and that is based on fundamentals and not self fulfilling charts

(Quote) I am going to start off with the force that most people ignore – the charts are breaking down. Remember that we are dealing with a market that is a traders market. Huge funds punt the markets day and night and they use charts. Whether the charts are right or wrong, in bear and bull markets, they can be self-fulfilling because people act upon them.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Traders-deliver-a-lesson-from-the-bears-pd20111003-MA85C?OpenDocument&src=sph

[Beagle]

No doubt about it, its f'in ugly out there and I can't see any light at the end of the tunnell.
Cash is where its at.

[drillfix]

Agree winner and Roger, and to me yes its true. When you really look at what is happening here even non-technicals show that there are many things hidden under rocks and in the back of the cupboard that just "need to come out" and when they do, their meaning and truth is of no value to the positive or updraft of incentive to folks placing their money in the market.


Back to the technicals,

Well, honestly, we can go back months ago even prior to Phaedrus leaving and/or there after. It was completely clear to many by the charts that were posted showing all the new direction "longer term" showing the EMA alignments, plus the consecutively talked about Lower Lows and Lower Highs.

Plus, sure we way get some relief rallies here and there as the downside continues but I try to encourage some to keep a balance view and discipline to keeping some cash on the sidelines as this will be a blessing in weeks and months to come.

In brief though, the message is clear. Protect your capital folks~!

[Hoop]

Hmmm Winner...no 5000 by Xmas this year :( ....u scrooge u :t_down:.;)

Yeah....OK...alright... its all the chartists fault using their huge powers to create this latest bear market

....However how about some praise ...Us chartists forced the Sun to think of a downtrending self fulilling prophecy when the number of sunspots got very high....in fact from the chart below we saved the world several times and we are in the process of saving it again.... those past sunspot activities wreaked havoc to the worlds communication systems and created dangerous solar flares...

hmmmm now that I think of it... We never got paid for using our god-like powers for that neither...can't trust anyone these days ..eh???.........Hmmm second thoughts....... maybe we should blame the fundies for having no cash left at those times..eh..

EDIT: ... A bit of trivial stuff...the chart shows the sun's sunspots highs are decreasing each cycle....The Sun is in a secular Bear Super Cycle :>) hmmm who shall we blame for that ...the USA congress?? or the those Greeks and their Sungod

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/dyk9n0djou96vlghjbyf.gif

[drillfix]

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/dyk9n0djou96vlghjbyf.gif



Nice chart there Hoop, LOL :)

[shasta]

It has to be Phaedrus's fault surely?

No one is buying into confirmed down trends anymore ;)

[STRAT]

It has to be Phaedrus's fault surely?

Hey Shasta.
You gotta admit, he timed his departure to perfection.

[shasta]

Hey Shasta.
You gotta admit, he timed his departure to perfection.

Sneaky sod has been pretty quiet about it too, but all chartists are snake oil merchants arent they? ;)

[STRAT]

Sneaky sod has been pretty quiet about it too, but all chartists are snake oil merchants arent they? ;)Dunno about being snake merchants but chartists wouldnt expect chatter from someome who has left the building :D

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8470-Pharewell-Phrom-Phaedrus.

[h2so4]

It's aint over till the fat lady sings.

[STRAT]

It's aint over till the fat lady sings.Thats right H2.
Almost everyone is talkin doom and gloom.
Setup complete.
Time for a Rally.
Keep your eyes on that ball

[trackers]

Thats right H2.
Almost everyone is talkin doom and gloom.
Setup complete.
Time for a Rally.
Keep your eyes on that ball

So the worlds not ending? But I've spent all my money on firearms and gasoline!! :(

[Hoop]

Thats right H2.
Almost everyone is talkin doom and gloom.
Setup complete.
Time for a Rally.
Keep your eyes on that ball

Yes Strat ..3930 seems a bottom for now...so rally time..... but remember until proved otherwise the All Ords is in a cyclic Bear Market Cycle so therefore one should treat the rally as a sucker rally.

Below is rough draft chart showing target trading ..a bear market investing strategy I used during the last bear market. Basically I start to take notice and watch trend changes when the market index is nearing a targeted bottom area to get in and also in the rally spread area to get out. ....As you see the TA indicators I have used is an example that they are of little help ..you need more sensitive indicators as tools.

Phaedrus was a bit of a critic in this strategy and rightly so as there is quesswork involved ...playing with a bear is a dangerous business.



On the chart you can see there is a bit of guesswork around the targeted bottoms as they are not exact and are used as a guide. When a turn happens its sometimes sudden and before you know it half of the rally spread is used up, marking a risk/reward entry /exit not worthwhile....sometimes you get lucky and the buy turn is slower and easier to recognise....This time I wasn't lucky (Wise words about keeping your eye on the ball ,,,eh Strat).... Usually 8 to 10% sucker rally happens on average therefore a sucker rally spread of about 350 is likely again... this would take the All Ords from 3930 to 4280 which is close to testing the primary downtrend line....That would be a good time to look to sell ...and if by some miracle the bear dies you are either still in or if out no problem just buy back in on the pullback once its all confirmed..(a raft of TA buy signals).

As I was slow to respond the risk to enter now (at 4132) is higher than the reward (3.5%) so I will pass on this one or do limited selective short term buys.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/xofw5g5wrgmkbdous9t.png

[Oiler]

So the worlds not ending? But I've spent all my money on firearms and gasoline!! :(

and crime is way down in Christchurch, Trackers. Are planning a spree and a quick get away :D:D

[drillfix]

Yes Strat ..3930 seems a bottom for now...so rally time..... but remember until proved otherwise the All Ords is in a cyclic Bear Market Cycle so therefore one should treat the rally as a sucker rally.

As I was slow to respond the risk to enter now (at 4132) is higher than the reward (3.5%) so I will pass on this one or do limited selective short term buys.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/xofw5g5wrgmkbdous9t.png

Agree Hoop,

Until shown other wise from consecutive highs, this is a relief rally in play.

As shown in the All Ords thread is a chart of Alan Kohler's US consumer spending which shows the lowest spending now in all post war recoveries.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/wqv6gct21rvl8hxrxmk1_UScomsumer.png

Also, they Europeans and trying to smoke the markets with a controlled Default of Greece, which many say, how does a controlled bail out work or differ? The answer is, it doesn't but you pump money into the system and make it look like everything is ok.

So with those 2 issues right there, its all smoke and mirrors at present.

Also,
The up and downs of markets are a transitional thing, it takes time for these confirmations to prove where we exactly are in any cycle.

To me, we are just making a move upward in the lower part of the cycle, and if we break through that then great, if not, its back downwards again so there is no time to become complaisant folks.

Take caution whilst enjoy trading, imo :)

[drillfix]

And yet Drilly, you don't mention the 1000lb gorrilas in the room ... How are they faring?

LOL Belg,

I will tell ya, its all those banana's that are driving them nuts, I am sure of it.

Real question is, is, How long will the gorilla stay in the room?

As always, time will tell, but I myself take each day for what it is and trade accordingly, and today is a trade day that's fer sure.

[mark100]

My gut feel is this rally may last a bit longer the the previous relief bounces as it seems to be wider spread with decent support emerging for small caps as well. I put a bit of cash to work Wed morning in the coal sector following the annoucement from New Hope and then spread it a bit wider yesterday morning. Gone from being 15% invested at the start of the week to a bit over 50% at the moment. Don't think I will go any higher for the moment and I'm prepared to sell if my gut feel turns into a gut ache

[drillfix]

Folks,

I forgot to say when I was adding my 10c worth.

Watch out for the break of 4,252 which currently acts as resistance. XAO may touch it up and back to it a couple of times and then make a break in either direction but if upward, then a continuation sign for sure, or the other way down, means a test of the previous support and a high probability of breaking that to enter into an even lower range expanding the downside should this happen.

Anyway, no doom or gloom, or no cocaine to get high either, just calling it as I see it in which case I am only trying to be honest with myself plus to share any precautionary thoughts with others.

[trackers]

and crime is way down in Christchurch, Trackers. Are planning a spree and a quick get away :D:D

Me?? Not with this guy on the case G!!!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/oddstuff/5708109/Caped-crusader-calls-on-cops