If National wins ...

[elZorro]

Here is some of the Salvation Army report out recently. On employment:


The economic recovery underway since 2012 finally appears to be
trickling down to the most disadvantaged workers and households.
Employment rates are slowly improving for young adults and for
Māori and Pacific people, although they still remain a long way back from
where they were prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007/08.
While the benefits of the recovery appear to be trickling down, the
improvements in incomes that this recovery might bring still appear
very limited—especially for the lowest paid workers. The cost of the
Government’s income support programme continues to rise faster
than inflation and other Government spending, due entirely to retiring
Baby Boomers and their income entitlements around New Zealand
Superannuation.


Looks like I was quite wrong about how many part-time jobs there are, unless there is a change in definition. Just over 22% of jobs are part-time? 220,000 new jobs have been created over the last 5 years, but of course quite a few were lost just prior, and there has been a population increase.

[elZorro]

National is quite proud of the fact that from a low of just 100 new state houses being built a year after the GFC, the figure is now 1,000 new state houses a year. This is just 10% of the number Labour's KiwiBuild programme aims for (mostly lower cost houses, not necessarily state houses but for general purchase). The government has also pulled $550mill in dividends out of Housing NZ over the last few years, for use in the general fund. Meanwhile 5,000 people are in fairly desperate need of state housing, at the moment.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=11400315

[winner69]

This working EZ
https://contribute-nzlabour.nationbuilder.com/state-housing

One way to get members engaged

On housing New Zealand the other day I heard key mention both banks and private partnerships.

It's all on eh, letting his mates enrich themselves at the expense of the poor

[elZorro]

This working EZ
https://contribute-nzlabour.nationbuilder.com/state-housing

One way to get members engaged

On housing New Zealand the other day I heard key mention both banks and private partnerships.

It's all on eh, letting his mates enrich themselves at the expense of the poor

Yes, W69, I am getting requests for funds every other day, but I am secure in my monthly tithe. You could put a few dollars in for me?

As far as the state house selloff goes, it doesn't impact on me personally like some of the other poor National policies, but the general gist of it is wrong, dead wrong. A Labour government could create a lot of useful jobs and skills training by simply speeding up the upgrades on existing state house stocks, invigorating the economy generally. On top of this, building brand new affordable houses and living spaces.

National choose to instead sell off many of the houses, for once and for all. If they are so poorly sited now, how will they sell them, unless it's for a bargain? And to whom? Then they have to top up the rents with taxpayer funds. The only improvement is in the cash funds, balanced by the net loss to the crown asset level. No more capital gain for govt on those assets, either. Who will profit from this in the longer term? Not the taxpayer, but the property speculators and landlords. People who are in this game because a lot of it is tax-free. And we'll never get anywhere, if all we do is sell houses to each other. Great for the Aussie banks I guess.

[winner69]

Yes, W69, I am getting requests for funds every other day, but I am secure in my monthly tithe. You could put a few dollars in for me?

As far as the state house selloff goes, it doesn't impact on me personally like some of the other poor National policies, but the general gist of it is wrong, dead wrong. A Labour government could create a lot of useful jobs and skills training by simply speeding up the upgrades on existing state house stocks, invigorating the economy generally. On top of this, building brand new affordable houses and living spaces.

National choose to instead sell off many of the houses, for once and for all. If they are so poorly sited now, how will they sell them, unless it's for a bargain? And to whom? Then they have to top up the rents with taxpayer funds. The only improvement is in the cash funds, balanced by the net loss to the crown asset level. No more capital gain for govt on those assets, either. Who will profit from this in the longer term? Not the taxpayer, but the property speculators and landlords. People who are in this game because a lot of it is tax-free. And we'll never get anywhere, if all we do is sell houses to each other. Great for the Aussie banks I guess.

Spose this is proof that Govt policy not working

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11401080

And John made a great thing at the opening

[elZorro]

Spose this is proof that Govt policy not working

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11401080

And John made a great thing at the opening

Yep, W69. Not enough margin for this clever business, while they got up to speed. A fairly big hole for a company, but not for a government. This is the sort of business where the KiwiBuild program would use this equipment, and a Labour govt would probably not have watched the firm go into receivership. They'd have backed them up, or been involved in the first place.

In a similar vein, manufacturing feedback across the country was at a low ebb in December 2014. Where I am, it's not looking too good half-way through February either.


13/2/2015 — General
Manufacturing down in December
By Simon Hartley
The Christmas holiday season appears to have taken its toll on New Zealand's manufacturing sector, slumping to its lowest overall rate since December 2012.
Nationally, the BNZ-Business New Zealand manufacturing index slipped 6 points to 50.9; readings above 50 being expansion and below 50, contraction. All four New Zealand regions were in contraction, with the North Island's northern and central regions at respectively 45.5 and 47.5, and the South Island's Canterbury/Westland at 48.3 and Otago-Southland at 46.6.
Otago Southland Employers' Association chief executive, John Scandrett, said regional manufacturing performances experienced some slippage from previous months, with Otago-Southland's contraction to 46.6, largely reflecting the post-Christmas holiday season.
He said production levels across most southern sub-sectors, with the exception of food and beverage and meat industry-related activity, had “dipped significantly,” but that was usually the case in January.
Business New Zealand's executive director for manufacturing, Catherine Beard, said with firms partly closed during January, lower values across the country were a fairly similar pattern to most years, but the January 2015 result was lower than the previous two years.
*Simon Hartley is senior business reporter and assistant chief reporter for the Otago Daily Times.

[elZorro]

Far-right Matthew Hooton on the convention centre.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/skycity-debacle-offers-morbid-fascination

He mentions Micheal Cullen and Labour's buying out KiwiRail from Toll Holdings as an example of folly. Except that as a country, we didn't have much of a choice. At least it's an important part of our infrastructure, and having it viable and government-backed takes traffic off our highways. Fonterra were smart enough to make full use of it in their operations since.

This recent report from KiwiRail (http://www.kiwirail.co.nz/uploads/Publications/SCI.%202015-2017%20Final.pdf)shows it won't be making any dividends for a few years, as it had some major upsets to a 5-year plan to sustainable profit. It needs $200mill a year from the government to carry on with necessary capital upgrades. As far as operations go, it's profitable, about $100mill a year gross profit. It would like to charge SOE Solid Energy more to transport their coal from the West Coast for example, but is in dispute with the government over the price.

SkyCity's casino, on the other hand, does pay some wages, but also pulls tax-paid earnings out of the general economy, when NZers lose money at the Casino. National has given them the monopoly to do that in Auckland on an increased scale, until 2048 at least. And they pay very little gambling taxes on that income, it's a special low rate for casinos.

[elZorro]

Editorial and other items in the SST today about how the government should pay not one cent more towards the SkyCity convention centre. It'll be really interesting to see what happens with the press conference about it, this afternoon. One wrong move here by National, and going on the general thoughts of bloggers, it'll be Labour's turn in 2017, for sure.

[iceman]

Hopefully Bill will stop it !


Editorial and other items in the SST today about how the government should pay not one cent more towards the SkyCity convention centre. It'll be really interesting to see what happens with the press conference about it, this afternoon. One wrong move here by National, and going on the general thoughts of bloggers, it'll be Labour's turn in 2017, for sure.

[winner69]

EZ, don't normally read Paul Little but loved this piece this morning
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11402115

Love the see no devil, hear no devil, speak no devil bit.

If there ever was a time for Labour to really discredit and undermine the Nats I is now. Unfortunately I don't think they will take real advantage of the opportunities. Even if they just concentrated on Sky City affair they have enough to work with - insiders, make rich guys richer, corruption, bribery ec .....jeez we could spin a good story eh.

We need a revolution, lead by the people in the street on end his carry on. Not soft politics.

[elZorro]

EZ, don't normally read Paul Little but loved this piece this morning
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11402115

Love the see no devil, hear no devil, speak no devil bit.

If there ever was a time for Labour to really discredit and undermine the Nats I is now. Unfortunately I don't think they will take real advantage of the opportunities. Even if they just concentrated on Sky City affair they have enough to work with - insiders, make rich guys richer, corruption, bribery ec .....jeez we could spin a good story eh.

We need a revolution, lead by the people in the street on end his carry on. Not soft politics.

I agree, but there will need to be some funds sent through first, just to organise it. People have been bailing out of membership of political parties for a few years now.

Here's a Convention Centre cartoon which might be crude, but also apt.

Heaps more on this link too.
(http://liberation.typepad.com/liberation/2015/02/cartoons-and-images-of-the-skycity-deal-.html)

[winner69]

ez -this a good cartoon as well
http://www.stuff.co.nz/blogs/opinion/cartoons/6736460/Tom-Scott-Murdoch-and-others

Let the greedy share holders pay for this ..... after all they have been given plenty already with licenses and more pokies etc. Shonky economic impact reports are just that but if the country does benefit from heaps of international conventions then still getting fair value for the licence rights they have given away

[westerly]

Hopefully Bill will stop it !

The first comment from the right on the Convention Centre and other National problems they rather wish they could push under the carpet.
If the positions were reversed and it was Labour on the back foot it would be page after page on this thread.

westerly

[iceman]

Westerly, you may not have noticed but Labour IS on the back foot and has been since about 2006 :p


The first comment from the right on the Convention Centre and other National problems they rather wish they could push under the carpet.
If the positions were reversed and it was Labour on the back foot it would be page after page on this thread.

westerly

[craic]

All the "page after page" stuff on this thread is from the left - if you don't believe me count the number of page inches/posts from elZorro who might be considered a left wing poster. As to Sky Tower and their goings on, the matter is of limited interest to anyone except the left and they ar singularly ineffective at finding whips to hammer the government. Auckland is well on the way to becoming a festering sore with its inability to run its own transport systems without government funds bail out its leaders fantasies in this area.

[westerly]

Westerly, you may not have noticed but Labour IS on the back foot and has been since about 2006 :p

Labour has been on the backfoot long before 1996. Richard Prebble/Roger Douglas with their neo right fantasies put Labour back until Ruth Richardson gave them new life.
Helen Clarke was more to the centre but that was too much left for the far right. John Key is now on the backfoot with even the once admiring media
openly finding fault. Luckily for John there is sometime to the next election.

westerly

[Sgt Pepper]

I agree, but there will need to be some funds sent through first, just to organise it. People have been bailing out of membership of political parties for a few years now.

Here's a Convention Centre cartoon which might be crude, but also apt.

Heaps more on this link too.
(http://liberation.typepad.com/liberation/2015/02/cartoons-and-images-of-the-skycity-deal-.html)

EZ

I have read Mathew Hootons NBRs article on the Sky City negotiations. Disturbing stuff. How Wayne Eagleson retains his position is truly mystifying, is it misplaced loyalty of John Key or something else?

[elZorro]

EZ

I have read Mathew Hootons NBRs article on the Sky City negotiations. Disturbing stuff. How Wayne Eagleson retains his position is truly mystifying, is it misplaced loyalty of John Key or something else?

Who knows? yet another alarming coincidence over who-knows-who, Sgt Pepper.

I'm bitterly disappointed that the Sky City people have been forced to look at shrinking the Convention Centre plans by 10%. Does that mean the patrons have to shrink in size too?

http://www.nbr.co.nz/sky-convention-centre-ck

Note that a majority of NBR readers (National-ACT voters) also didn't want any extra money spent by taxpayers. The Crown has already gifted the land. It won't be given back, the project has to go ahead or the govt loses face. Then Matthew Hooton starts to write articles like Slater would, and it's obvious that this has become a crucial policy matter for the govt.

Now Sky City makes sure everyone in Auckland knows that they give to charity, it's on billboards through the city. Except that under their rules, it's 2.5% of net profit in Auckland and Queenstown, 1.5% of NP in Hamilton. Pubs and clubs have to pass back a big percentage of their machine take to charities (37%), that's a completely different story. There were only 57 separate Auckland groups that got any funding from Sky City in the last round. The rest were turned away, the total given out by Sky City in 2014 being only about $2.1mill, from 3 casinos.

[winner69]

EZ - is this the early rumblings of our revolution
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11402415

But the likes of Key don't just get it do they ...but one day they will get their comeuppance, either overthrown ( or outvoted)

Good on those protesters

[elZorro]

EZ - is this the early rumblings of our revolution
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11402415

But the likes of Key don't just get it do they ...but one day they will get their comeuppance, either overthrown ( or outvoted)

Good on those protesters

Here's the press release they used to get somewhere between 30 and 50 people there for the protest. That would have been a bit unnerving for JK.

http://auckland.scoop.co.nz/2015/02/crash-the-national-party-demo-3pm-today/

They got themselves into the paper anyway, that's smart work. What if they get several hundred people next time?

Here's some info on the charity funds dished out from pokies in NZ:

All casinos, $3mill p.a.
Pubs and clubs pokie machines: $242mill p.a.

So if your non-profit outfit is looking for grants, don't bother applying to Sky City.

http://www.nzct.org.nz/news/pokie-expenditure-down/

[winner69]

Bryce Edwards not that kind about Labours response to the Sky City 'backdown'

Sort of says there ain't too much difference between the Nats and Labour ....they ball tarred with the same brush.

Need a strong radical central party to evolve here

What Bryce said

National caved more than Sky
The fact that National hasn’t negotiated these parallel reductions suggest that it’s the government that has caved in more than SkyCity, Dr Edwards says.

"So it’s somewhat bizarre to see that much of the reporting on the latest announcement makes out that National has stood up against SkyCity. It certainly suits National for the story to be sold like this.

"What is surprising is the opposition parties are also endorsing the same line."

"Labour, for instance, is celebrating the latest announcement as a win for the public. This seems disingenuous. Clearly the parliamentary parties are simply seeking to convince the public that they themselves have all had an impact and therefore a win. The reality is that the rest of us are all losers from the deal."

http://www.nbr.co.nz/win-win-lose-sky-city-convention-centre-steven-joyce-nigel-morrison-ck

[elZorro]

Yes, W69, I did feel it was a bit hopeful of Andrew Little to claim a win for gathering Pro-Labour signatures on the issue. It was the fact that even in the NBR and in the forums, amongst National supporters, there was a clear view that it was a bad idea to have taxpayers funding anything more. That's why National caved. It's still possible that years or months down the track, the govt will still have to step up.

[Major von Tempsky]

You guys just don't get it, do you.

The salient point is/was getting an outstanding Convention Centre for Auckland to earn more foreign exchange and generate more jobs and business.

The salient point has now gone down the gurgler thanks to petty point scoring and destructive criticism by Labour and curvature of the spine by National.

[elZorro]

You guys just don't get it, do you.

The salient point is/was getting an outstanding Convention Centre for Auckland to earn more foreign exchange and generate more jobs and business.

The salient point has now gone down the gurgler thanks to petty point scoring and destructive criticism by Labour and curvature of the spine by National.

Auckland central already has two convention centres, at least. The proposed larger Sky City version comes with a lot of fish-hooks and a signed document that implies the government will have to cave when things go wrong, exactly like they have. They've been shown up by a wily Sky City.

Looks like there really is a shortage of IT professionals.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/10997ce5/eroad-offers-10-000-signing-bonus-for-software-engineers.html

[fungus pudding]

You guys just don't get it, do you.

The salient point is/was getting an outstanding Convention Centre for Auckland to earn more foreign exchange and generate more jobs and business.

The salient point has now gone down the gurgler thanks to petty point scoring and destructive criticism by Labour and curvature of the spine by National.

Not so. National did the right thing in the end, but went off half-cocked in the first place. Even if throwing money at Sky-city was sensible it would have been disastrous for the government; although given they have had no opposition since gaining power, and none in the foreseeable future they may have got away with it.

[elZorro]

Not so. National did the right thing in the end, but went off half-cocked in the first place. Even if throwing money at Sky-city was sensible it would have been disastrous for the government; although given they have had no opposition since gaining power, and none in the foreseeable future they may have got away with it.

Andrew Little is building up some awareness though, FP. Most of the people who didn't have a clue who he was until recently, are now in favour of his general presentation.

The next issue concerning Labour is choosing a new President for the party. Nigel Haworth is looking like a very strong contender for the post, and he wrote the "Manufacturing: A new consensus" report in 2013. This is based on output from a multi-party conference and submissions, that National refused to attend or help with. Here's the file.

http://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/Manufacturing%20Inquiry%20Report%20-%20The%20New%20Consensus.pdf

Nigel is an HOD at Auckland University, sits on numerous boards and important bodies, writes, researches, and is well thought of within Labour, being on the policy council etc. He must know all about NZ manufacturing by now, plus a lot more. Good luck to him.

[iceman]

What a load of nonsense EZ. What you refer to as "multi-party conference" was pathetic political grandstanding by a motly lot of rudderless opposition parties. It spectacularly failed to achieve anything and was never heard of again because it was a non issue before they even started and noone was listening.
But I am glad if being involved in that failure qualifies this Nigel guy as Labour's new President. Yawn.


Andrew Little is building up some awareness though, FP. Most of the people who didn't have a clue who he was until recently, are now in favour of his general presentation.

The next issue concerning Labour is choosing a new President for the party. Nigel Haworth is looking like a very strong contender for the post, and he wrote the "Manufacturing: A new consensus" report in 2013. This is based on output from a multi-party conference and submissions, that National refused to attend or help with. Here's the file.

http://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/Manufacturing%20Inquiry%20Report%20-%20The%20New%20Consensus.pdf

Nigel is an HOD at Auckland University, sits on numerous boards and important bodies, writes, researches, and is well thought of within Labour, being on the policy council etc. He must know all about NZ manufacturing by now, plus a lot more. Good luck to him.

[elZorro]

What a load of nonsense EZ. What you refer to as "multi-party conference" was pathetic political grandstanding by a motly lot of rudderless opposition parties. It spectacularly failed to achieve anything and was never heard of again because it was a non issue before they even started and noone was listening.
But I am glad if being involved in that failure qualifies this Nigel guy as Labour's new President. Yawn.

Is that MVT or Iceman I'm responding to? Hard to spot the difference today.

Here is a link to Prof Nigel Haworth, HOD in Auckland Uni's School of Business. He looks to be more qualified than you, me, and everyone on this thread put together.

http://www.business.auckland.ac.nz/people/nhaw010

I have not discounted the report out-of-hand like you have, I've read through it, and while I didn't submit anything, I wouldn't have been far different from the majority of opinions. I don't know what happens overseas, but from what I can gather, their central governments make a bit more of an effort generally.

I don't think someone in the primary sector would agree, but added value, export manufacturing is critical to a good strong economy. Our manufacturing is going backwards, that can't be good.

Your opinion is out of step with the majority of submitters, who are out there, trying to make a go of it.

I've been curious, and perplexed, about the new dairy factory in Pokeno. Here's a bit of background.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-world-milking-new-zealands-way-of-life-1424153944?mod=WSJ_USHomePage_Additional_News

[RGR367]

Andrew Little is building up some awareness though, FP. Most of the people who didn't have a clue who he was until recently, are now in favour of his general presentation.

For sure people who read news would now be aware of him not paying his bills. Strike 1 for Andrew and one more and the Party will dump him. http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/266380/labour-leader's-invoice-gaffe

[fungus pudding]

Andrew Little is building up some awareness though, FP. Most of the people who didn't have a clue who he was until recently, are now in favour of his general presentation.



Fascinating. Can you quote the survey or source, or have you personally interviewed those who didn't know him from a bar of soap?

[Sgt Pepper]

Fascinating. Can you quote the survey or source, or have you personally interviewed those who didn't know him from a bar of soap?

FP
I wouldn't count on Andrew Littlles political demise or John Keys victory in 2017. Way too soon. I recall that you, like me are a Beatles fan. Predictions can be spectacularly wrong.

Eventually, Decca Records rejected the Beatles, saying "guitar groups are on the way out" and "The Beatles have no future in show business.

[fungus pudding]

FP
I wouldn't count on Andrew Littlles political demise or John Keys victory in 2017. Way too soon. I recall that you, like me are a Beatles fan. Predictions can be spectacularly wrong.



Of course. I didn't make any predictions. I merely asked the source of your survey, which you didn't bother to answer.

[elZorro]

Fascinating. Can you quote the survey or source, or have you personally interviewed those who didn't know him from a bar of soap?

This was a comment from someone high up in Labour, at a local meeting of Labour people. It was the result of a survey, I don't have further details.

[elZorro]

For sure people who read news would now be aware of him not paying his bills. Strike 1 for Andrew and one more and the Party will dump him. http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/266380/labour-leader's-invoice-gaffe

This would be a Labour Party bill, not one personally due by Andrew Little. It costs quite a bit to run the Labour Party office machinery, and I think they might have been low on funds after the latest election campaign. I'm not privvy to any further details, but there are a lot of members contributing regular funds, so any old invoices will be getting sorted. Maybe there was a dispute about the quality of the advice? Who knows.

[westerly]

This would be a Labour Party bill, not one personally due by Andrew Little. It costs quite a bit to run the Labour Party office machinery, and I think they might have been low on funds after the latest election campaign. I'm not privvy to any further details, but there are a lot of members contributing regular funds, so any old invoices will be getting sorted. Maybe there was a dispute about the quality of the advice? Who knows.

If as TV3 says he ( the freelance journalist) was "just a worker" a bill of approximately a $1000 for a chat and report seems a bit over the top.

westerly

[fungus pudding]

This would be a Labour Party bill, not one personally due by Andrew Little.

Absolute rubbish. The bill was incurred by Andrew Little in his own name; therefore he alone was responsible. Hardly a big deal but he should have paid it and claimed it from the party if it was their responsibility. He should have known better. In his position he can't take any risk that will blacken his credit record. Matt Rata was the champion politician for that one.

[elZorro]

Absolute rubbish. The bill was incurred by Andrew Little in his own name; therefore he alone was responsible. Hardly a big deal but he should have paid it and claimed it from the party if it was their responsibility. He should have known better. In his position he can't take any risk that will blacken his credit record. Matt Rata was the champion politician for that one.

Codswallop, FP. Andrew Little is the new leader of a major political party. How he is perceived by the public is very important for the entire party. He would have been advised by party members and press coaches to arrange for some (limited) paid input from people he thought could give even-handed advice. That would be a party expense, for sure.

[artemis]

Codswallop, FP. Andrew Little is the new leader of a major political party. How he is perceived by the public is very important for the entire party. He would have been advised by party members and press coaches to arrange for some (limited) paid input from people he thought could give even-handed advice. That would be a party expense, for sure.

There will be a public perception now about not paying the workers! I do think he was unlucky that this ended up in the NBR, though. But pollies live in a fish bowl and usually give as good as they get. Plenty of 'dirt' going back the other way.

[fungus pudding]

Codswallop, FP. Andrew Little is the new leader of a major political party. How he is perceived by the public is very important for the entire party. He would have been advised by party members and press coaches to arrange for some (limited) paid input from people he thought could give even-handed advice. That would be a party expense, for sure.

If it was a party expense, and I have no doubt it was, then he was a fool to enter into the deal in his own name. He could have, and should have, charged services to the party. He didn't so should have paid the bill and claimed it from the party. He'll know next time.

[westerly]

If it was a party expense, and I have no doubt it was, then he was a fool to enter into the deal in his own name. He could have, and should have, charged services to the party. He didn't so should have paid the bill and claimed it from the party. He'll know next time.

The world is full of people telling others what they should do.

westerly

[macduffy]

Here's a naïve question. Why would a political party pay for journalistic advice for one of its members who lodges a leadership bid? And would it also do so for all the other contenders? Do party members expect their subscriptions to be spent in this way?

Disc: Not a member of any political party.

[slimwin]

Dirty politics? :-)

[artemis]

Here's a naïve question. Why would a political party pay for journalistic advice for one of its members who lodges a leadership bid? And would it also do so for all the other contenders? Do party members expect their subscriptions to be spent in this way? .... Disc: Not a member of any political party.

According to the email 7/1/2015 from Mr McCarten "... it is neither a parliamentary matter or in fact a party matter".

[winner69]

EZ -when you have a bit of time to spare read this properly, no speed reading OK, in the context of will Labour ever be able to take down this (neo-liberal) National government

Agree you may think about Greece and Euroland but has some relevance conceptually to this part of the world

http://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/feb/18/yanis-varoufakis-how-i-became-an-erratic-marxist

[neopoleII]

""There will be a public perception now""
this...... is what its all about.....
Little has become leader of the labour party and the perception is that he got in by means that arent truely democratic.... the union vote
where paid union members didnt vote but the union bosses voted for them and voted for Little.
Little now has a mandate to progress the party and the voters to a win the next election.
it seems that ...... from general discussions here and there and hearing things here and there.... just perceptions.....
that the real man for the job is Shearer......
but he didnt even put his name up for the top job......... why?
maybe there is some more "cupboard" cleaning to do before Shearer is allowed to take back the top job for labour.
sometime in the future....... Shearer will be leader, and he will have support from the general public...... and will most likely
be the next Labour lead prime minister.
He is a man that can be respected, and do what is needed for NZ once the "shapeshifters" who control labour today are gone.
this is why national will have at least a term or two more of control until the left wing cleans its cupboards of "behind the scene dirt"

once Shearer is leader of labour...... I will Seriously look at his policies and vote accordingly.
until then....

[elZorro]

EZ -when you have a bit of time to spare read this properly, no speed reading OK, in the context of will Labour ever be able to take down this (neo-liberal) National government

Agree you may think about Greece and Euroland but has some relevance conceptually to this part of the world

http://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/feb/18/yanis-varoufakis-how-i-became-an-erratic-marxist

I agree, that needs careful reading, W69. I might read up a bit more on Marxist theory. Some great insights there. I will try not to commodify employees..

[Major von Tempsky]

So great are the insights that every socialist economy has crashed and burnt....Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, North Korea & & all enthusiastic implementers of Marxist theory to the detriment of their citizens.

[elZorro]

So great are the insights that every socialist economy has crashed and burnt....Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, North Korea & & all enthusiastic implementers of Marxist theory to the detriment of their citizens.

But he was a great thinker, maybe one of the best ever.

From Wikipedia:


Politically, Marx's legacy is more complex. Throughout the twentieth century, revolutions in dozens of countries labelled themselves 'Marxist', most notably the Russian Revolution (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Revolution) which lead to the founding of the USSR (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USSR).[248] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx#cite_note-April_Thesis-249) Major world leaders including Vladimir Lenin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Lenin),[248] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx#cite_note-April_Thesis-249) Mao Zedong (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mao_Zedong),[249] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx#cite_note-250) Fidel Castro (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fidel_Castro),[250] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx#cite_note-251) Salvador Allende (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salvador_Allende) [251] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx#cite_note-252) Josip Tito (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josip_Tito) [252] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx#cite_note-253) and Kwame Nkrumah (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwame_Nkrumah) [253] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx#cite_note-254) all cited Marx as an influence, and his ideas informed political parties worldwide beyond those where 'Marxist revolutions' took place.[254] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx#cite_note-255) The brutal dictatorships associated with many Marxist nations have lead some to blame Marx for millions of deaths,[255] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx#cite_note-256) but the fidelity of these varied revolutionaries, leaders and parties to Marx's work is highly contested, and rejected by many Marxists.[256] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx#cite_note-257) It is now common to distinguish between the legacy and influence of Marx specifically, and the legacy and influence of those who shaped his ideas for political purposes.[257] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx#cite_note-258)



You could say the same about Christianity and many other religions, I suppose.

A bit more comment on Karl Marx. (http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Marx.html)

[Sgt Pepper]

So great are the insights that every socialist economy has crashed and burnt....Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, North Korea & & all enthusiastic implementers of Marxist theory to the detriment of their citizens.

Major
I would be most interested in your observations about countries with Social Democrat governments?

[Sgt Pepper]

EZ

I have just finished reading the Herald article on John Key attending a fundraising dinner at which $25000 was donated to National Party by Mr Donghua Liu. JK, as part of his rather disturbing memory lapses, had not disclosed that it was at Mr Liu's residence apparently.

[elZorro]

EZ

I have just finished reading the Herald article on John Key attending a fundraising dinner at which $25000 was donated to National Party by Mr Donghua Liu. JK, as part of his rather disturbing memory lapses, had not disclosed that it was at Mr Liu's residence apparently.

Thanks for pointing it out, Sgt Pepper.

Here is the article. (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11405494) It's not quite so embarrassing or surprising that John Key didn't want to say where the fundraiser was held. It was known to be a private address in Auckland. But that makes it a very small fundraiser, surely. An intimate fundraiser.

But then for National to say that despite the funds being raised, and for the donor to say that he expected nothing in return, and then National donating $24,000 to itself instead (on paper, I bet) so the $25,000 could be refunded unused..that takes a lot of believing. There must have been some sort of an unwritten verbal deal or undertaking, and the refund of the donation money annuls that.

[elZorro]

Colin James article - John Key compares well with Tony Abbot. Of course problems in Aussie do affect us, our economy is not as strong as it could be, and we have more immigration in the meantime.


Colin James's Otago Daily Times column for 24 February 2015

Whingeing Aussies and their beer belly

Once we put up with whingeing Poms. Now it's whingeing Aussies. They are far richer than us, so what's the beef? And why should we bother?


The problem is China -- or, rather, China plus Australians' punchy self-importance. In security matters that self-belief took it into Iraq in 2003 and is taking it there now (with a John Key coda, about which more next week). In economic matters it led Australian firms to overbank on China.


In 2009 China's authorities responded to the steep fall in international trade after the United States financial collapse and subsequent global financial crisis (GFC) by massively investing in physical infrastructure and buildings.


The difference between that and rich-world central banks' massive money-printing was that China had something concrete -- literally -- to show for it.


And that required lots of steel which needed iron ore, coking coal and coal for electricity. Australia digs up both. Australia boomed -- in sales to China and in frenzied investment of around $A250 billion in new mines and transport facilities to sell still more.


Result: jobs, high wages, huge profits and much puffery about being the only "developed" economy to stay growing through and after the GFC.


Problem: China tailed off its investment as GDP growth picked up and as a housing glut developed. Iron and coal prices plunged. Chinese steel producers now talk of phasing down output by around a quarter, says an expert who spent time with them two weeks back.


Problem: mining firms predicated their Australian investment boom-bubble on China's steel production doubling.


Result: some mines closed and low or no return on the massive capital outlay. Household result: unemployment 6.4 per cent in January and rising on a 64.8 per cent participation rate. (Here the December numbers were 5.7 per cent on 69.7 per cent).


Deeper result: the exposure of Australia's productivity nakedness. It is not a pretty sight. No beer belly is.


Slimming that flab will require a big fall in the exchange rate and so in real incomes plus extensive regulatory reform.


But Australians have had it too good for too long. Easier to whinge. Which they are doing via elections: state governments out after only one term in Victoria and Queensland (where Labor went from seven seats to government!) and a real prospect of the same for the federal government next year.


Prime Minister Tony Abbott himself is now at parlous risk of dismissal after at least two-fifths of his MPs wanted him out in a "spill" vote on February 9.


Abbott's runaway mouth and incoherent political (mis)management led the magisterial United States Council of Foreign Relations think tank to muse last week that he is "the most incompetent leader of any industrialised democracy".


Symptoms of decline: federal and state fiscal deficits climbing into the future. The federal deficit is now forecast at $A30 billion and rising. Business confidence has been shaken, which will deter investment. The torrent of westward Tasman migration has ended.


Fixing the federal budget requires serious, painful structural economic reform. But Paul Kelly, eminence-grise of Australian political analysts, has written that the "irresistible" consequence of the Abbott mess is that "our system is moving inexorably into a 'death of reform' straitjacket. The 2016 election is likely to be dominated by political advice to Liberal and Labor not to provoke the voters. This will put Australia on a long-run trajectory of decline and growing unhappiness."


Abbott has already retreated from some fiscal and reform measures.


It is against that murky economic and political backdrop that the Australia-New Zealand Leadership Forum will on Friday muse on global and bilateral political, economic and regulatory issues (including the perennially rejected New Zealand bid for mutual recognition of dividend imputation).


Simultaneously John Key and Abbott meet over two days, an awkward contrast of high achiever and clown prince.


On the forum's sidelines and at the Australia-New Zealand cricket next day (guess why some will be at the forum) Australian business participants will likely intone a now-frequent refrain: "We would like your government."


They like and respect Key and admire Bill English's reforms, now in their third term and with new objectives. Last Thursday English laid out to public servants a sharper "customer" focus in a cyber world that empowers citizens with "choice" and a broadening of welfare investment into a "social investment" package which will be a centrepiece of the 2015 budget.


Could we be excused a little smugness? No. Australia alternates as No 1 or No 2 source of foreign exchange earnings with China (which is still buying our soft commodities, also at lower prices). If Australia's economy flags, that is a drag on ours.


So New Zealanders need Aussies to stop whingeing and do the hard yards to fix their show. Trouble is, that looks a long way off. And if on Saturday we win the cricket...


Colin James, Synapsis Ltd, 04-384 7030, 021-438 434, P O Box 9494, Marion Square, Wellington 6141,
ColinJames@synapsis.co.nz (wlmailhtml:{859F7BC3-BC06-49EC-89C0-293E8B5037B7}mid://00000004/!x-usc:mailto:ColinJames@synapsis.co.nz), website www.ColinJames.co.nz (wlmailhtml:{859F7BC3-BC06-49EC-89C0-293E8B5037B7}mid://00000004/!x-usc:http://www.colinjames.co.nz/)

[elZorro]

And I still say Labour MPs are beyond reproach?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11407988

[Major von Tempsky]

Sgt Pepper, if a Social Democrat country allows a free economy, e.g. a floating exchange rate, free or where appropriate "fair" trade, doesn't nationalize it's companies, doesn't tax its companies and citizens to death, and a free media, and maintains free and fair elections and the rule of law, then you would have to say it's not socialist.

[neopoleII]

""doesn't tax its companies and citizens to death""
maybe the rest of the comments where this quote came from is true..... and the piece that I cherry picked might also be true.....
the question though is..... what does happen to the "fair tax" that is collected from Kiwi entities?
billions upon billions "distributed" to those that cant manage their personal lives.... for many reasons that most working folks understand.
what if we had a policy of personal responsibility in NZ?
what if we had a policy of supporting only those truly in need?
instead of the endless cradle to grave welfare that is sucking the life out of the NZ tax dollar.
if "social distribution" was better managed..... the tax money could be spent on NZ owned infrastructure...... which benefits everyone.
in the meantime...... mumma with 8 kids gets more than most trades people earn......
mums and dads on a 100 k get WFF.
guy with sore leg gets ACC and continues working...
social distribution, benefit fraud, corporate fraud, and all the other ways some / alot of kiwi find ways to get a free ride
with zero comeback is why this country is NOT as good as it could be.
With the billions dished out to those that choose to rely on the state...... and the state gladly supporting that lifestyle.....
I see why that those that can earn a sizable income choose to "minimize" their tax burden to the state.
clean up the socialist policies to be fair to all kiwis and then inspect the tax minimizes more actively........
and we might have a fair playing field where the true kiwi worker....... the tradesman..... will vote a fair political system into NZ
until then..... the left will get more socialist..... and the right is getting more capitalist.

just my view as a tradie that is poorer than alot of beneficiaries.

[artemis]

..... the question though is..... what does happen to the "fair tax" that is collected from Kiwi entities?
billions upon billions "distributed" to those that cant manage their personal lives.... for many reasons that most working folks understand.
what if we had a policy of personal responsibility in NZ? ......

Thomas Sowell, the economist, said it best -" Since this is an era when many people are concerned about 'fairness' and 'social justice,' what is your 'fair share' of what someone else has worked for?"

[macduffy]

So Winston Peters is to stand for election in Northland.

Now here's a completely naïve political question: Why should Northland, which we are told is a relatively underprivileged part of the country, be a safe National seat?

Just curious, no hidden agenda!

[fungus pudding]

So Winston Peters is to stand for election in Northland.

Now here's a completely naïve political question: Why should Northland, which we are told is a relatively underprivileged part of the country, be a safe National seat?



Being underprivileged does not equate to stupidity.

[Sgt Pepper]

Being underprivileged does not equate to stupidity.

Nor does wealth confer wisdom.

[fungus pudding]

Nor does wealth confer wisdom.

Of course not. Many very average people become wealthy. Application and focus is all that's required.

[elZorro]

Of course not. Many very average people become wealthy. Application and focus is all that's required.

So that means that if you're not super smart, but are able to apply focus, you could be wealthy, and would also be a National voter?

I see that National relies mostly on its 30,000 members for campaign funds. What they do then, is channel about 80% of the funds needed for each electorate race, direct to the candidates from the central party. This gets around the rules of notifying who has given what, because central party donations of up to $15,000 are exempt from the naming rules. Labour asks each of its electorates to provide almost all the funds for their candidate. Smaller donations have to have the source mentioned.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11409374

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11409395&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+28 +February+2015

[fungus pudding]

So that means that if you're not super smart, but are able to apply focus, you could be wealthy, and would also be a National voter?



It does? Not sure why that labels them a National voter, or a voter at all.

[iceman]

Not true EZ. Much of Labour's funds is taken by stealth and channeled throgh Unions with no reference to the contributor of the funds. By the way, this is yet ankther non issue for Labour to focus on !


Labour asks each of its electorates to provide almost all the funds for their candidate. Smaller donations have to have the source mentioned.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11409374

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11409395&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+28 +February+2015

[elZorro]

Not true EZ. Much of Labour's funds is taken by stealth and channeled throgh Unions with no reference to the contributor of the funds. By the way, this is yet ankther non issue for Labour to focus on !

Not true Iceman. The EPMU, one of the biggest unions, funded Labour with just $60,000 in mid-2014. That's $1.71 per member. Note that John Key is one person who puffs that up, and you shouldn't believe everything he says. Major political parties would probably burn through $1mill in operational costs per year, at least. Election campaigns are extra.

http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/epmu-increases-donation-to-labour-party-2014063012#axzz3T4gTjEhN

I am axshually quite impressed that National has 30,000 members, that is considerably higher than Labour's count at the moment. I can see the extra benefit that conveys in using the party donation limit rules.

I know the local Labour electorate had some trouble raising donations. It was a bit disorganised, sure, but there just wasn't the full support from those who were approached. If funds had come through for 80% of it from Head Office (there is a maximum that can be spent) it would have been a lot easier.

So National have got this important part of the funding battle spot on, but if any major party in NZ should be funded mostly from member donations, rather than business owners and wealthy families, it is Labour.

[Major von Tempsky]

Whale Oil is quite right in his analysis of Labour's fund raising problem. He notes that Mike Williams (Fat Tony) was the last Labour President willing to do the hard yards of actually going around, chatting people up, maintaining contacts, shaking hands and asking for donations. As long as Labour keeps electing Ivory Tower theoretical hands-off bods without any common touch their fund raising efforts will continue to be abysmal.

[elZorro]

Whale Oil is quite right in his analysis of Labour's fund raising problem. He notes that Mike Williams (Fat Tony) was the last Labour President willing to do the hard yards of actually going around, chatting people up, maintaining contacts, shaking hands and asking for donations. As long as Labour keeps electing Ivory Tower theoretical hands-off bods without any common touch their fund raising efforts will continue to be abysmal.

Labour shouldn't need any big donations like that, at all. It should come mostly from ordinary families and other working people putting a little bit into the kitty each month. It's quite do-able.

MVT, you're just parroting C-T stories again. They're a bit worried about the new guru, Nigel Haworth as President of the Labour Party.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11409340

[elZorro]

Gareth "I should be paying more tax" Morgan on bolt-holes, etc. I wouldn't think there were enough bolt-holes to make an appreciable difference to our tax base. On the other hand, if selling a business for a few hundred million attracted tax, that would help.

http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/74275/gareth-morgan-says-we-should-have-comprehensive-capital-income-tax-everyone-and-would-?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+2+Ma rch+2015

[artemis]

Labour shouldn't need any big donations like that, at all. It should come mostly from ordinary families and other working people putting a little bit into the kitty each month. It's quite do-able......

Can't help but think that Labour is targeting a constituency that no longer exists. Mr Little had the right idea when he talked of targeting small business voters, of which there are many. Though I'd like to see the policies.

[elZorro]

Can't help but think that Labour is targeting a constituency that no longer exists. Mr Little had the right idea when he talked of targeting small business voters, of which there are many. Though I'd like to see the policies.

I agree Artemis, there could be some donations from small business, much more likely to be aligned with Labour. These are people who have not forgotten what it is like to be an employee. And sometimes their customers make them feel like they are still employees..

So it would make sense for Labour candidates to heavily canvass retail businesses, owners and employees who talk to lots of people every day. But do they?

I have just looked at some of the Candidate returns. One I saw, the only donation that Louise Upston had to notify, was $29,000 odd, straight from the National Party. What a .. liberty! By comparison, Labour candidates were usually as poor as churchmice.

Note that while he may have been dynamic etc, Stuart Nash was bankrolled far more than any other Labour candidate. Is there a picture emerging, I wonder?

[Major von Tempsky]

About as worried as we were about Moira Coatsworth, snigger, snigger. Nigel H is a non event. Bring back Mike Williams and we will worry.

Some posters about Northland are missing some very obvious points.

Take out the Northern Maori electorate whatever it's called these days, take out the poor whites and Pacific Islanders who can't be bothered enrolling and/or voting and you have a very strong farmers National seat. Winston is not a good electorate man, he lost in Northland before, he's lost in Tauranga (twice?) which he used to hold as electorate MP, even the media can see it's very unlikely to be an upset.

[artemis]

About as worried as we were about Moira Coatsworth, snigger, snigger. Nigel H is a non event. Bring back Mike Williams and we will worry. Some posters about Northland are missing some very obvious points. Take out the Northern Maori electorate whatever it's called these days, take out the poor whites and Pacific Islanders who can't be bothered enrolling and/or voting and you have a very strong farmers National seat. Winston is not a good electorate man, he lost in Northland before, he's lost in Tauranga (twice?) which he used to hold as electorate MP, even the media can see it's very unlikely to be an upset.

Mr Peters could be in with a chance if there is a real groundswell of public opinion turning against the current government, giving rise to 'time for a change'. That doesn't seem to be the case (not yet anyway).

[Major von Tempsky]

One of the strongest values that appeals to rural National voters (and remember Northland has a very high National majority from rural National voters) is loyalty, which Winston does not have, in spades.

[elZorro]

I'm not sure why Labour doesn't give National a taste of their own ACT medicine, and pull out of the contest up North. Andrew Little didn't look that convinced it was a good idea to run a candidate this morning, on TV. He was carefully picking his words. Winston will be sure to get a few more along to electioneering meetings.

[iceman]

Possibly 2 reasons. They don't believe Winston would win anyway so they could then be accused of not showing any interest in Northland, where they have fought hard to get the Maori seat. I am sure Kelvin Davies will be pushing hard for them to stand a candidate.


I'm not sure why Labour doesn't give National a taste of their own ACT medicine, and pull out of the contest up North. Andrew Little didn't look that convinced it was a good idea to run a candidate this morning, on TV. He was carefully picking his words. Winston will be sure to get a few more along to electioneering meetings.

[westerly]

About as worried as we were about Moira Coatsworth, snigger, snigger. Nigel H is a non event. Bring back Mike Williams and we will worry.

Some posters about Northland are missing some very obvious points.

Take out the Northern Maori electorate whatever it's called these days, take out the poor whites and Pacific Islanders who can't be bothered enrolling and/or voting and you have a very strong farmers National seat. Winston is not a good electorate man, he lost in Northland before, he's lost in Tauranga (twice?) which he used to hold as electorate MP, even the media can see it's very unlikely to be an upset.

80% of eligble voters voted in the 2014 election in the Northland electorate. That is about average for the rest of NZ. To say the 20% who did not vote were poor whites or Pacific Islanders reveals more about you than anything else. Snigger, snigger.
The standard of journalism in NZ is now so pathetic no in depth analyisis of Winston's reasons for standing are available apart from the usual snide comments by shallow reporters lacking ability or resources to give any depth to what they write. Labour would be doing themselves a favour by not standing a candidate.

westerly

[iceman]

Probably that high as all the women were still elated about being able to vote :p


80% of eligble voters voted in the 1914 election in the Northland electorate.

westerly

[westerly]

Probably that high as all the women were still elated about being able to vote :p

Give me a break. I will come into this century some time :)

[Major von Tempsky]

" To say the 20% who did not vote were poor whites or Pacific Islanders." Disprove it.

80% of those eligible or 80% of those who bothered to register?

Are you saying that the turnout (of those registered) on average for NZ was 80%? Incredibly high.

Winston has long since exhausted the available pool of starry eyed naïve voters. He has to find some special issue and stir it like crazy to even get in with a few bedraggled moronic followers. To anyone with their eyes open Winston's modus operandi has been obvious for decades. Find a special issue that attracts 6 or 7 % of people who actually register and vote, it doesn't matter what it is, Winston will be in favour of it. He is totally without a conscience or scruples or shame.

[elZorro]

" To say the 20% who did not vote were poor whites or Pacific Islanders." Disprove it.

80% of those eligible or 80% of those who bothered to register?

Are you saying that the turnout (of those registered) on average for NZ was 80%? Incredibly high.

Winston has long since exhausted the available pool of starry eyed naïve voters. He has to find some special issue and stir it like crazy to even get in with a few bedraggled moronic followers. To anyone with their eyes open Winston's modus operandi has been obvious for decades. Find a special issue that attracts 6 or 7 % of people who actually register and vote, it doesn't matter what it is, Winston will be in favour of it. He is totally without a conscience or scruples or shame.

Who cares, MVT, we all know that National buys their votes. What is worse?


Here's an article that caught my eye at lunch today. Really well-written and researched.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11411208

Westerly, you and I are in agreement. Maybe it's not too late for Labour to pull out. Let's not have a boring by-election. Labour should even go and help Winston.

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/send-them-message-winston-peters-tells-northland-election-voters-6247041

[iceman]

I thought total number of MPs for any party was determined by the overall list votes they got at the general election. So if a party loses an electorate seat in a by-election will it simply not receive another list MP instead and the party winning the electorate would lose a list MP ? So like in the case Rudman outlines of Winston winning and then resigning his list seat, would National not simply pick up an extra list seat ? If what Rudman says is correct then Parliament is no longer proportional to list votes received at general election.

[Jay]

I think you are wrong iceman - if a party loses an electorate seat there is a by-election and whoever wins gets the seat.

The overall numbers of MP's is determined the overall party vote at the general election only, however works like this to my knowledge -Say there are 100 MP's -Party A gets 50% of the vote and 40 electorate seats - therefore they get 10 List MP''s in addition to the electorate seats

Party B gets 25% of the vote and 25 electorate seats - no list MP's.

If a List MP leaves then they are replaced by the next person on the list - if a List MP jumps ship to another party then that is when the contentious issue is, I maintain that the next person on the list should come in and the defecting MP is out al together
You can get an overhang occasionally where the party will say get 10% of the vote but get 11 electorate seats

So I would think No Nat would not pick up an list seat as Winston is simple replacing his list seat with an electorate seat and National lose a seat - which they have by the MP resigning.

[iceman]

Yes I think you must be right Jay according to all the media reports I've been reading. They have confused me as I obviously understood this wrong. So by-elections are treated differently to general elections in this instance, another silly quirk of this MMP system.
Imagine an example of a party having a 3 person majority in Parliament and having formed a Government. Then 3 electorate MPs died in a plane accident, heavens forbid. The party then lost all 3 seats in the resulting by-elections which could trigger a change of Government despite the Government having a majority of the list vote at the general election !!! I have never liked this MMP system and like it even less now !


I think you are wrong iceman - if a party loses an electorate seat there is a by-election and whoever wins gets the seat.

The overall numbers of MP's is determined the overall party vote at the general election only, however works like this to my knowledge -Say there are 100 MP's -Party A gets 50% of the vote and 40 electorate seats - therefore they get 10 List MP''s in addition to the electorate seats

Party B gets 25% of the vote and 25 electorate seats - no list MP's.

If a List MP leaves then they are replaced by the next person on the list - if a List MP jumps ship to another party then that is when the contentious issue is, I maintain that the next person on the list should come in and the defecting MP is out al together
You can get an overhang occasionally where the party will say get 10% of the vote but get 11 electorate seats

So I would think No Nat would not pick up an list seat as Winston is simple replacing his list seat with an electorate seat and National lose a seat - which they have by the MP resigning.

[Major von Tempsky]

First of all I'd like to congratulate El Zorro for disagreeing with Labour (above) for the first time in his life :-) Maybe in some far flung corner of his brain there does lurk an independent thought.

Secondly here's the NZH poll to date on Nicky Hager "revelations" that NZ "spies" upon its neighbours (and no doubt they spy upon us).

"
Incensed. This is unacceptable 42%

I don't believe the revelations are true 6%

I'm fine with it 52%".

Methinks people no longer care what Nicky Hager says and automatically vote against him as in the General Election. He's a broken reed. He should retire to the Chatham Islands where he could be a celebrity.

[iceman]

You obviously haven't been to the Chathams MVT. They wouldn't even let him ashore there


First of all I'd like to congratulate El Zorro for disagreeing with Labour (above) for the first time in his life :-) Maybe in some far flung corner of his brain there does lurk an independent thought.

Secondly here's the NZH poll to date on Nicky Hager "revelations" that NZ "spies" upon its neighbours (and no doubt they spy upon us).

"
Incensed. This is unacceptable 42%

I don't believe the revelations are true 6%

I'm fine with it 52%".

Methinks people no longer care what Nicky Hager says and automatically vote against him as in the General Election. He's a broken reed. He should retire to the Chatham Islands where he could be a celebrity.

[westerly]

" To say the 20% who did not vote were poor whites or Pacific Islanders." Disprove it.

80% of those eligible or 80% of those who bothered to register?

Are you saying that the turnout (of those registered) on average for NZ was 80%? Incredibly high.

Winston has long since exhausted the available pool of starry eyed naïve voters. He has to find some special issue and stir it like crazy to even get in with a few bedraggled moronic followers. To anyone with their eyes open Winston's modus operandi has been obvious for decades. Find a special issue that attracts 6 or 7 % of people who actually register and vote, it doesn't matter what it is, Winston will be in favour of it. He is totally without a conscience or scruples or shame.

" To say the 20% who did not vote were poor whites or Pacific Islanders." Disprove it.

80% of those eligible or 80% of those who bothered to register?


I cannot disprove it, but you made the statement so I think the onus is more on you to prove it ?

80% of those eligible voted in the Northland electorate in 2015
Of the 64 electorates in NZ 19 had higher voting percentages. The average being 78.96% of those eligible to vote over the 64 electorates.
Interesting that no party is inclined to do anything about those who do not register to vote although it is a legal requirement. There is however no compulsion to vote.

As for your diatribe against Winston, like I said no “ journalist” has asked why he is standing.
NZ first got 8.66% of the party votes, considerably more than the less than 1% ACT received.
Which I suppose is your party of choice?

westerly

[elZorro]

First of all I'd like to congratulate El Zorro for disagreeing with Labour (above) for the first time in his life :-) Maybe in some far flung corner of his brain there does lurk an independent thought.

Secondly here's the NZH poll to date on Nicky Hager "revelations" that NZ "spies" upon its neighbours (and no doubt they spy upon us).

"
Incensed. This is unacceptable 42%

I don't believe the revelations are true 6%

I'm fine with it 52%".

Methinks people no longer care what Nicky Hager says and automatically vote against him as in the General Election. He's a broken reed. He should retire to the Chatham Islands where he could be a celebrity.

MVT, when did I say that Labour are perfect? I like their policies, not so sure about how they think they are ever getting back into power. They could wait for a public mood change. Winston is doing his best to create that swing. Not bad organisation, a big bus all sign-written and a huge spot on TV News to start his campaign. In comparison, Labour are busy canvassing poor Labour cardholders for donations, so they can print letters for letterboxes. Yep, that'll work, there will be TV and radio coverage of that, because it's such an interesting new technique :t_down:

Now about that survey. It's all in the wording isn't it? If you wanted to vote against the surveillance in any way, you had to be "incensed". On the other hand if it didn't bother you too much, you could vote for one of the other options. What if the last category was "I think it's a good idea to snoop on our near neighbours and pass the data to the USA", how many votes would that get?

[iceman]

A majority I suspect EZ. People want the Government to keep us safe and so far our Governments have done a pretty good job of it. This latest Hager rubbish is old news and has been done by successive NZ Governments for a long time. I hope Labour isn't silly enough to line themselves up on Hager's side this time and give him more oxygen, although I am sure Key wouldn't mind as he knows its a none issue and may take some headlines away from Northland !! Surely Labour learnt from Dirty Politics and "Moment of Truth" that it is the losing side of politics and people are tired of regurgitating the same issues over and over again.

They (Labour) finally have a Leader that seems to be doing OK for now but he has this tendency to take a populist stand against Government on defense and security issues. I big mistake on his behalf I suspect !


On the other hand if it didn't bother you too much, you could vote for one of the other options. What if the last category was "I think it's a good idea to snoop on our near neighbours and pass the data to the USA", how many votes would that get?

[elZorro]

A majority I suspect EZ. People want the Government to keep us safe and so far our Governments have done a pretty good job of it. This latest Hager rubbish is old news and has been done by successive NZ Governments for a long time. I hope Labour isn't silly enough to line themselves up on Hager's side this time and give him more oxygen, although I am sure Key wouldn't mind as he knows its a none issue and may take some headlines away from Northland !! Surely Labour learnt from Dirty Politics and "Moment of Truth" that it is the losing side of politics and people are tired of regurgitating the same issues over and over again.

They (Labour) finally have a Leader that seems to be doing OK for now but he has this tendency to take a populist stand against Government on defense and security issues. I big mistake on his behalf I suspect !

Iceman, you really should do your research before clogging up the thread with untruths. I was casually reading the Waikato Times this morning and there was an article about it. In fact, it was only in 2009 that NZ ramped up its policy on spying on near neighbours to "full-take collection - so all communications from the region were being hovered in by the GCSB". This means phone calls, cellular traffic, emails, web content, radio, TV etc, I would assume.

It would be illegal if NZ was spying on Niue or the Cook Islands for example, because they are NZ Citizens. They could spy on Tonga or Samoa, and of course there is French Polynesia and New Caledonia, of interest.

So this furore is a result John Key's government seeking to curry favour with the USA.

[iceman]

I don't think it has been me clogging up this thread with very selective information and half truths EZ. But I admit I don't get my "research" from the Waikato Times like you. You know full well that NZ Governments have been monitoring overseas, including the Pacific, for a long time, as they should. Ask Helen Clark. Of course it will continuously change and evolve with technology and nature of threats, as it should. Whichever way you want to play this ball (or posters) you yet again get drawn into a none issue while the rest of NZ yawns


Iceman, you really should do your research before clogging up the thread with untruths. I was casually reading the Waikato Times this morning and there was an article about it. In fact, it was only in 2009 that NZ ramped up its policy on spying on near neighbours to "full-take collection - so all communications from the region were being hovered in by the GCSB". This means phone calls, cellular traffic, emails, web content, radio, TV etc, I would assume.

It would be illegal if NZ was spying on Niue or the Cook Islands for example, because they are NZ Citizens. They could spy on Tonga or Samoa, and of course there is French Polynesia and New Caledonia, of interest.

So this furore is a result John Key's government seeking to curry favour with the USA.

[slimwin]

Much ado about something, nobody really cares about. Again. Labour should leave it to the Lunatic greens to be shrill and work to capture the center.

Same,same after the election will lead to another election result the same.

[Major von Tempsky]

Well said Iceman and Slimwin. Nicky Hager proved counterproductive during the election and will prove counterproductive now!

Below is the reason why Labour and EZ and his mates keep losing....


Last updated 12:43, March 6 2015



Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service has reaffirmed New Zealand's Aaa sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook.

Finance Minister Bill English said the decision, noting the strength of the economy and improving government finances, was a "further endorsement of the Government's responsible economic and fiscal programme".

Moody's said the New Zealand economy was growing strongly, despite a steep fall in dairy prices during 2014.

Construction, partly in relation to the rebuilding of Christchurch after the 2011 earthquakes, and also in the Auckland housing market, had been an important contributor to growth.

It tipped growth to be about 3 per cent during 2015 and to remain robust through 2016.

"Compared to similarly rated countries, it says that New Zealand has a track record of faster and more stable growth in recent years," English said..


"In addition, Moody's has assessed New Zealand's fiscal strength as very high.

"This reflects a debt burden that is lower than the median for Aaa-rated countries, along with the prospect of a return to budget surplus."

Moody's report said that when compared to other similarly rated sovereign issuers, New Zealand's economy had demonstrated a track record of faster and more stable growth, which counterbalanced its economic weaknesses, namely the small size, high concentration and relatively low income levels in comparison to other Aaa-rated sovereigns.

Moody's noted the Government was committed to not raising taxes and the plan to run a surplus was based on expenditure restraint.

This would allow spending to fall to below 30 per cent of GDP during the coming four years – down from a peak of 34.6 per cent in 2010-11.

English said: "As Moody's notes, New Zealand's main vulnerability is its external debt and structural current account deficits.

"Both of these indicators have improved somewhat in recent years and the Government is focused on further improvement through its economic programme."


Moody's report also notes this country's biggest vulnerability is the "structural current account deficit, which has been large for several decades. This deficit makes the country highly dependent on international capital markets."

English said New Zealand was one of only 14 countries with the top Aaa rating and a stable outlook with Moody's.


- Stuff

[elZorro]

"In addition, Moody's has assessed New Zealand's fiscal strength as very high.

"This reflects a debt burden that is lower than the median for Aaa-rated countries, along with the prospect of a return to budget surplus."


All of which can be sheeted home to the excellent work by the Labour Government up to 2008. Not the National Government, who have borrowed to cover tax shortfalls, so as not to lose face. They will try desperately to engineer a slim budget surplus in 2015. Labour had record budget surpluses every year of their last terms, National has not managed it once. The current account deficit is roaring back, we are all happy to buy cars and overseas gear, but not to actually build some of our own clever stuff and export it.

Further endorsement of National's bungling of a golden start, that was handed to them on a plate. Six years wasted so far.

[RGR367]

Looks like Labour would bed with Winston Peters who is really a supporter of the Rights' policies.

[elZorro]

Looks like Labour would bed with Winston Peters who is really a supporter of the Rights' policies.

Starting in 2005, Labour lost votes to both the Greens and NZ First. These are voters who don't really vote National, on average. Over the years, it hasn't changed much. Most of the party votes (80%) are split between National, and the other three biggest parties. Changing the vote each election can be done by spending money on advertising and promotion. National figured that out a long time ago, and they have the systems in place to make the most of any sentiment moving their way.

Winston is part funded by the Vela family and the racing industry, no doubt. He certainly had enough funding and planning done to make an immediate impact up North. Labour is off to a painfully slow start, and that could be part intentional, part the fact that they are short on funds. The press are helping to explain to the voters that Labour would probably prefer that Labour votes go to Winston Peters. For a start, it would make for a very interesting term afterwards, and some of National's policy ideas that they'd like to railroad through, might have to be pared back or modified. Good.

[craic]

Anyone out there among the wishful thinkers who believe that Winston Peters will win Northland and who is willing to wager a reasonable sum on that result? I give him a snowballs chance in hell and would like to profit from my wisdom. If he does win, then JK should call an immediate election and, after the inevitable victory should cart him and Peter Dunne off to the tip in the same wheelbarrow.

[elZorro]

Anyone out there among the wishful thinkers who believe that Winston Peters will win Northland and who is willing to wager a reasonable sum on that result? I give him a snowballs chance in hell and would like to profit from my wisdom. If he does win, then JK should call an immediate election and, after the inevitable victory should cart him and Peter Dunne off to the tip in the same wheelbarrow.

You will lose this time Craic, that's what I think. It's only a by-election, what's a reasonable amount?

[slimwin]

A small Japanese car.

[craic]

You will lose this time Craic, that's what I think. It's only a by-election, what's a reasonable amount?

It's not up to me to say but $1,000 would be within my budget. JK is building bridges, WP is blowing hot air.

[Sgt Pepper]

Craic
Ah yes, the bridges. I am intrigued that Mike Sabin never seemed to mention the rebuild programme during his election campaign, which was just five months ago. Any thoughts??

[neopoleII]

as i dont live in the northland region nor even care about its political or social issues.......
i am perplexed how an mp can do something that requires him to give up his seat........ for what ever reason....
and the resulting action is a by election which could/can change a countries elected government.
to extrapolate...... a person could enter politics, join a party, and subvertly do a bad deed to bring down a government.
just because his/her "true" political choice is with another political party..... but instilled themselves to the opposing party
to be a "sleeper" government destroyer.
you would think that if a party won an election they have the right to rule for that term, unless something very serious happens
that the ruling party has done or committed.
but with this sort of stuff....... an mp or several mps from a ruling party could...... have a terminal illness, sudden death, party disdain,
or sabotage, and a government could fall from the actions of a handful of people... whether pre planned or "just lives incidents"

i am a fan of mmp, but this sort of stuff seems politically unstable.

eg...... a 7 Richter scale earthquake at a caucus meeting at some destination that kills 4 or 5 mps and the government falls.
or....... a man made incident that causes the same lose of mps.

is this a fair way to run a country....... with ....... chance or tragedy controlling a government?

just some thoughts.

[elZorro]

as i dont live in the northland region nor even care about its political or social issues.......
i am perplexed how an mp can do something that requires him to give up his seat........ for what ever reason....
and the resulting action is a by election which could/can change a countries elected government.
to extrapolate...... a person could enter politics, join a party, and subvertly do a bad deed to bring down a government.
just because his/her "true" political choice is with another political party..... but instilled themselves to the opposing party
to be a "sleeper" government destroyer.
you would think that if a party won an election they have the right to rule for that term, unless something very serious happens
that the ruling party has done or committed.
but with this sort of stuff....... an mp or several mps from a ruling party could...... have a terminal illness, sudden death, party disdain,
or sabotage, and a government could fall from the actions of a handful of people... whether pre planned or "just lives incidents"

i am a fan of mmp, but this sort of stuff seems politically unstable.

eg...... a 7 Richter scale earthquake at a caucus meeting at some destination that kills 4 or 5 mps and the government falls.
or....... a man made incident that causes the same lose of mps.

is this a fair way to run a country....... with ....... chance or tragedy controlling a government?

just some thoughts.

NeopoleII: you're giving me some ideas. 2017 is a long time to wait.

[elZorro]

It's not up to me to say but $1,000 would be within my budget. JK is building bridges, WP is blowing hot air.

I'd take you on at $500, Craic.

[iceman]

neopoleII, the strangest thing about this absurdity is that should Northland vote for Winston First, the result will be a new unknown NZ First MP from Southland. Go figure !


as i dont live in the northland region nor even care about its political or social issues.......
i am perplexed how an mp can do something that requires him to give up his seat........ for what ever reason....
and the resulting action is a by election which could/can change a countries elected government.
to extrapolate...... a person could enter politics, join a party, and subvertly do a bad deed to bring down a government.
just because his/her "true" political choice is with another political party..... but instilled themselves to the opposing party
to be a "sleeper" government destroyer.
you would think that if a party won an election they have the right to rule for that term, unless something very serious happens
that the ruling party has done or committed.
but with this sort of stuff....... an mp or several mps from a ruling party could...... have a terminal illness, sudden death, party disdain,
or sabotage, and a government could fall from the actions of a handful of people... whether pre planned or "just lives incidents"

i am a fan of mmp, but this sort of stuff seems politically unstable.

eg...... a 7 Richter scale earthquake at a caucus meeting at some destination that kills 4 or 5 mps and the government falls.
or....... a man made incident that causes the same lose of mps.

is this a fair way to run a country....... with ....... chance or tragedy controlling a government?

just some thoughts.

[elZorro]

Here's an item from pundit about the political panic being shown by the National Party.

http://pundit.co.nz/content/to-call-each-thing-by-its-right-name

There are plenty of other articles, and I quite liked the heckling being shown to the National candidate (on TV) when he said there were 7,500 new jobs in Northland. Yes, maybe there was last year, but in the years before it, a lot of jobs were lost. Northland is playing catch-up.

And then John Key joins the fight from the Kaiwaka Cheese Shop (http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/photos/labours-behind-the-bike-sheds-deal-pm/ar-AA9wTm1), and holds up a big round of Gouda Cheese. Interestingly for this medal-winning big cheese, it was made in the Waikato, just outside Hamilton, by Ben Meyer and his family. So someone is geographically challenged.

[craic]

I will accept your $500 bet and leave the other $500 on the table. Any sudden death,act of terrorism or circumstance that alters the scene renders the bet void. The bet is that I say National will win the by-election and you say that Winston Peters will win the by-election.

[Major von Tempsky]

Interesting article in today's Press on the really booming economy of the Queenstown Lakes District, 45% of it is tourism. For El Zorro's eyes only the unemployment rate is 1.7%, that's right just 1.7%. No government subsidies, no tax breaks, no Labour Party policy. Move to Queenstown Lakes and your excuses for being unemployed vanish.

[elZorro]

Interesting article in today's Press on the really booming economy of the Queenstown Lakes District, 45% of it is tourism. For El Zorro's eyes only the unemployment rate is 1.7%, that's right just 1.7%. No government subsidies, no tax breaks, no Labour Party policy. Move to Queenstown Lakes and your excuses for being unemployed vanish.

Are they all fulltime jobs MVT? or more tied up with tourism and the hospitality sector? One of the lowest paying areas to be employed in. But I agree, the figures look good from a distance. Is there a lot of manufacturing down there?

[elZorro]

I will accept your $500 bet and leave the other $500 on the table. Any sudden death,act of terrorism or circumstance that alters the scene renders the bet void. The bet is that I say National will win the by-election and you say that Winston Peters will win the by-election.

How about you say that National will win, and I say that anyone else wins? You have to give some small chance to Labour, Craic. Plus, you've already done all right out of my bets. :)

[westerly]

Interesting article in today's Press on the really booming economy of the Queenstown Lakes District, 45% of it is tourism. For El Zorro's eyes only the unemployment rate is 1.7%, that's right just 1.7%. No government subsidies, no tax breaks, no Labour Party policy. Move to Queenstown Lakes and your excuses for being unemployed vanish.

The average NZ job seeker could not afford to live in Queenstown.
As for no tax breaks the John Key led Tourism handout was $123m to the tourism industry. Micheal Hill's NZ golf open receiving $750,000 a year for 2 years plus $500,000 for TV and broadcasting.
However the recent NZ Ladies golf open was refused any funding.

westerly

[Snow Leopard]

Interesting article in today's Press on the really booming economy of the Queenstown Lakes District, 45% of it is tourism. For El Zorro's eyes only the unemployment rate is 1.7%, that's right just 1.7%. No government subsidies, no tax breaks, no Labour Party policy. Move to Queenstown Lakes and your excuses for being unemployed vanish.

I really like it - give every unemployed New Zealander a bus ticket to Queenstown and bingo - all but 1.7% of the country has a job.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Major von Tempsky]

Obviously EZ no one is refusing a job down there in order to remain unemployed to keep you happy!. There's lots of families with family members who want a part time job, or a combination of hours and jobs.
And by the way, no one wants Manufacturing in Queenstown! It would drive the tourists away for a start.
Despite EZ's problems with it, the standard of living down there is one of the highest in the country.
The grant was to the golf.

[elZorro]

Obviously EZ no one is refusing a job down there in order to remain unemployed to keep you happy!. There's lots of families with family members who want a part time job, or a combination of hours and jobs.
And by the way, no one wants Manufacturing in Queenstown! It would drive the tourists away for a start.
Despite EZ's problems with it, the standard of living down there is one of the highest in the country.
The grant was to the golf.

Yes, that's all fine MVT. As at late last year, there were 5.7% of the employed levels (2.375mill), actively looking for work. That's 135,375 people. Assuming the workforce is completely inelastic, and that as soon as more hours were available the employers in Queenstown could simply take people off the jobless queue, then the problem is solved. Except there are only 28,000 odd people in all of the Queenstown Lakes District. A bit of an ask (12,500 in Queenstown itself).

http://www.stats.govt.nz/Census/2013-census/profile-and-summary-reports/quickstats-about-a-place.aspx?request_value=15000&tabname=

[elZorro]

Callaghan Innovation gets a bit of a grilling from Labour. I know personally how long it takes for R&D to resurface as profits, on the more complex projects. It can be decades. But still, this taxpayer funded outfit needs to be careful. If they are keen on looking at failures as a mark of future promise, maybe they should fund CRP and AXG, instead of letting shareholders do it.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11416353&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+13+M arch+2015

NZResources has a background on Solid Energy. $390mill flushed down the toilet, at least. I can't figure out how an SOE can be part-rescued after being badly managed, then left mortally wounded and the next in line to suffer losses will be the banks. It means that jobs at Solid Energy, still a large employer, are far from secure. Will all this operation be scuttled, when a more business-like approach would be to ride out the temporary lower price for coking coal? That's why the state owns it, so it has these reserves. They are not being allowed the reserves, because it would impact on the government's much-awaited surplus.


13/3/2015 — Coal, Lignite and CSG/CBM
Issue of Solid Energy’s viability raised
By Ross Louthean
The delay in release of the December half year financials for Solid Energy made known early this month has seen new reverberations in Parliament.
Added to this Finance Minister Bill English was quoted by Fairfax News this week as saying he doesn’t know whether Solid Energy was now viable.
Fairfax News pointed out the National Government has previously bailed out the company which amassed a large workforce and several non-core projects as a coal miner before the impact of the sliding coal price, particularly for export coking coal, became known about two years ago.
Government support was $258 million, including agreeing to cover $103 M required for remediation on old mining operations.
Fairfax News reported on March 2, that Prime Minister John Key said it is now not the Government’s preferred option to put more taxpayer money into Solid Energy. Bill English subsequently ruled out any cash, loans, or guarantees.
“Solid Energy has done a lot of work to right-size itself, but the coal price has kept falling away in front of them and that’s made it a continuing challenge.” English said.
“The Crown has been pretty keen to make sure that it’s not in the position of offsetting the risk that the banks took. The banks took a risk lending the company money and they’ve got to deal with the consequences of those decisions.
Fairfax said Solid Energy was negotiating with bankers to reduce a debt mountain of $400 M. Release of the overdue financials won’t take place until the company says the balance sheet reflects the company’s true position.
One of the original bankers, TSB Bank, wrote off its entire $53.9 M. Solid Energy also owes a combined $250 M to Commonwealth Bank, BNZ, ANZ, Westpac, and Back of Tokyo Mitsubishi.
Labour spokesman on State-Owned Enterprises, Clayton Cosgove said the problem was that $390 M has “gone down the toilet” and those originally responsible were not around – a comment taking in former chief executive Don Elder.
Mines were closed and operations at Waikato and on the West Coast have been dramatically downsized and there were now about 680 workers, including those in the headquarters in Christchurch.
In Parliament the Green Party which wants to demonise coal mining, forgetting its important role still in global industry including steelmaking, used the current coal industry crisis to claim coal was on the skids.
Co-leader Russel Norman urged the Government to provide proper support for workers if the company collapses as did Labour Leader Andrew Little. Dr Norman also claimed coal mining was a dying industry.
If the straits are that dire then perhaps the white knight may well be one of the big Indian coal companies or steelmakers who have been looking at stressed projects in Australia and New Zealand.
Sources: stuff.co.nz and nzresources.com data files.

[craic]

Heard the new labour leader on the 5 am radio yesterday being interviewed on a number of current topics. Quite impressed - he views were rational and reasonable and he did not attempt to score points or introduce other material. If he can do as well in open debate where he is not forewarned of the questions, then it bodes well for his party.

[elZorro]

Heard the new Labour leader on the 5 am radio yesterday being interviewed on a number of current topics. Quite impressed - his views were rational and reasonable and he did not attempt to score points or introduce other material. If he can do as well in open debate where he is not forewarned of the questions, then it bodes well for his party.

Amen to that, comrade..:)

Could I just add something, John hasn't been doing so well at helping out, up North.

He's not so good with a hammer. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11414883

Meanwhile Winston has been showing he does know how to use a hammer. Video link inside article.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/hammered

[craic]

It doesn't matter - half the electorate up there don't know what a hammer is.

[RGR367]

Was that because for some and quite a few of them that hammer is the rideable Hummer? ;)

[elZorro]

It doesn't matter - half the electorate up there don't know what a hammer is.

Well they know who Winston Peters is, and he's already sent a message to the government.

As some wit posted on the 'nail fail' incident: this is exactly what John Key has been told to do by Crosby-Textor, make some noise, but you don't need to actually do anything.

http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/national-pulls-out-team-key-in-northland-2015030717?ref=video#axzz3UKwJeshB

All this by-election is because of something Mike Sabin has been investigated over, an alleged assault. A small bit of reference to this within a blog post on www.kaiparaconcerns.co.nz


DESPERATE MEASURES 13.03.2015
"Desperate times call for desperate measures", so the old adage goes. And these are desperate times in Northland if you are a National Party supporter. Like Lazarus, Winston Peters has risen again and is giving National one hell of a run for its money.
National is so scared that the dirty tricks brigade, pork-barrel politics, and Machiavellian strategies have all been dusted off and brought up to the front line.
A worried John Key has virtually become a resident of the Northland as he chaperones and bolsters his lack-lustre candidate. If he lingers long enough he will be entitled to vote in the by-election.
Cabinet Ministers are burning up the tarmac heading to the North - and no doubt cursing that the Holiday Highway is not yet finished - laden with gifts for the peasants. Bridges promised by Bridges, the key to the future from Key. (But little is promised by Labour's Andrew Little.)
Even the Mangawhai Focus has moved up a notch and moved the propaganda of Peter "smoke and mirrors" Nicholas to the front page (http://www.mangawhaifocus.co.nz/Latest+Issue/Petition+shows+support+for+Commissioners.html). He now reports that his mates in the National Party have amassed a petition of 1300 to support an extension of the enforced regime of the Commissioners.
No doubt this is all on the instructions of Wellington who wanted the Commissioners men to win the tit-for-tat bidding in this round of poker. In their first effort they only managed 55 pathetic signatures. The MRRA outdid this many-fold in a few days. Now the Commissioners men have raised the stakes again.
Here we are striving to have our democracy returned to us and we have these clowns playing poker-politics to deny us our birthright.
However, the Winston factor has swung the balance dramatically. Some things have become very certain:
• Associate Minister Louise Upston is not going to announce the cancellation of democracy during the campaign,. And if Winston Peters is elected as MP for Northland then the National Party will do so at its peril.
• National will be moving heaven and earth to stop details of Mike Sabin's offences being publicly revealed.
Mike Sabin has already left a shameful legacy in Kaipara because of his betrayal of the residents. Not only did he support the validation of the inept KDC illegalities, but he backed the imposition of utterly vindictive penalties to punish rate strikers.
With a bit of statesmanship he could have brokered a fair deal between the parties, but instead he jumped to the orders from on high and helped create a festering feud between ratepayers and the Council.
But his legacy will be much worse when the details of his alleged offending are revealed, and when questions are inevitably asked about the National party's hierarchy's handling of the whole matter. John Key has already been under considerable pressure about the timing of his knowledge of the alleged offending, and that will become pivotal when the facts finally emerge.
It is a very unsavoury business, not only the alleged offending, but also the cover up by National. But that cover up has to remain in place until the by-election is over, otherwise all is lost.
Perhaps Peter "smoke and mirrors" Nicholas could organise another petition to stop the publication of details of the Sabin case until after all National's bribes have had their effect and the last vote has been cast.
Disclosure: The author was brought up in a Labour household but has voted National for many years. That is until the Kaipara scandal showed the true colours of John Key's government, its disdain for the rule of law, and its abysmal treatment of the people of Kaipara.

[iceman]

It is hilarious that Labour is suggesting to their supporters to should vote for WP, although Little has been ridiculously coy about it rather than straight up. They are basically being told to not vote for a strong local Labour candidate but instead vote for a new NZ First list MP from Southland. If WP wins, he will become the real opposition leader and Little will be history.
WP will then go into Government with National in 2017 if they need him !!! He has nothing in common with Labour and the Greens.

[iceman]

Una Jagose's statement to Parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee doesn't exactly give much credit to what you've claimed to have read in the Waikato Times. Yet another non issue by Hager and the Opposition. http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/67228330/gcsb-spies-collecting-less-intelligence



Iceman, you really should do your research before clogging up the thread with untruths. I was casually reading the Waikato Times this morning and there was an article about it. In fact, it was only in 2009 that NZ ramped up its policy on spying on near neighbours to "full-take collection - so all communications from the region were being hovered in by the GCSB". This means phone calls, cellular traffic, emails, web content, radio, TV etc, I would assume.

It would be illegal if NZ was spying on Niue or the Cook Islands for example, because they are NZ Citizens. They could spy on Tonga or Samoa, and of course there is French Polynesia and New Caledonia, of interest.

So this furore is a result John Key's government seeking to curry favour with the USA.

[elZorro]

It is hilarious that Labour is suggesting to their supporters to should vote for WP, although Little has been ridiculously coy about it rather than straight up. They are basically being told to not vote for a strong local Labour candidate but instead vote for a new NZ First list MP from Southland. If WP wins, he will become the real opposition leader and Little will be history.
WP will then go into Government with National in 2017 if they need him !!! He has nothing in common with Labour and the Greens.

Hasn't National done the same thing in Epsom for more than one election, ensuring ACT gets in? They've been doing it since 1999, they are the main players in this sort of thing (twice last year, Epsom and Ohariu, two extra parties in government. Yes, Labour helped the Greens out in 1999 also, the last time they have not stood a candidate. But this was to ensure the Greens would get Jeanette Fitzsimon in for Coromandel, or they would not have been in parliament at all.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/10320342/National-to-stick-with-ACT-UnitedFuture-and-Maori

It is not a surety that Winston would side with National after the 2017 election. In Labour's favour, Winston's policies support beneficiaries who have lower income than average, and he also clamps down on corruption in the financial sector and elsewhere. He is also not a fan of John Key's, or ACT's Jamie Seymour.

Regarding the spying, the jacked-up Q&A in parliament still left more questions than answers.

Nail Fail: Missed by that much..

[elZorro]

A great cartoon from Emmerson.

National pulls out all the stops, but will it be enough? Will they overdo it and wreck their chances further? :eek2:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/67418640/john-key-shortens-japan-trip-for-northland-byelection

[Daytr]

I live in Northland & have attended one of the meet the candidates sessions etc. Peters stands a very real chance of taking the seat & here is why.
1) National have held Northland for over 40 years & yet its been neglected & is one of the most impoverished provinces in the country.
2) The Mike Sabin affair & no one believes that at least Anne Tolly the minister for police at the time of the election didn't know he was under investigation & perhaps Key himself.
3) There has been one scandal after another from National & they are finally stacking up against Key. How many ministers has Key had to stand down at various times?
4) The whole GCSB thing & the fact that Key wont give a straight answer on mass collection of data & communications of NZ citizens let alone other states, including our allies & Pacific neighbors.

I also want to clear up a few things. The fact we are having a by-election is nothing to do with MMP & it would have been the same under the old system as far as I know. Anyway we have had MMP for sometime now, so get over it. Also if Super Winnie wins as we like to call him up here he will resign from the list & become the MP for Northland & bring someone else in to replace him as a list MP. So Northland will gain a hard working & ethical MP.

[elZorro]

Good post, Daytr. Mike Williams was on the radio today, also saying that it's not all rosy up north (http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/67386555/northland-byelection-reveals-discontent-in-overlooked-region).

This by-election is super-critical for Labour, and other parties who are hoping for change in 2017. Here's some good detail on the major players in Northland, from Frank Macskasy.

https://fmacskasy.wordpress.com/2015/03/12/northland-by-election-a-damning-poll-and-a-damnable-lie/

[iceman]

You haven't really cleared up anything about MMP saying it would "have been the same under the old system". Why should it be the same if we changed the system ? Under FPP, a by-election could indeed erode or increase a Government majority. But under MMP, the fundamental difference is that the overall number of MPs is determined by the overall countrywide votes any particular party receives. A by-election anywhere doesn't change the number of list votes received at the last general election so why should it change the make up of Parliament ? I am not commenting specifically on the Northland by-election about this, just the yet another silly quirk of this MMP voting system.



I also want to clear up a few things. The fact we are having a by-election is nothing to do with MMP & it would have been the same under the old system as far as I know. Anyway we have had MMP for sometime now, so get over it. Also if Super Winnie wins as we like to call him up here he will resign from the list & become the MP for Northland & bring someone else in to replace him as a list MP. So Northland will gain a hard working & ethical MP.

[Daytr]

Yes the quirk in this case is an existing list MP is standing in a seat & if successful will mean he vacates his list position & is replaced by someone else from the same party on the list. However isn't the net effect the same? I.e. if in a by-election under FPP the seat changed hands, the party that won the seat gains an extra MP & the sitting party that lost, lose one. Its the same under MMP.

[iceman]

Yes but under FFP we had no proportional representations as we only had electorate seats, so each seat counted separately. Changing to MMP was meant to ensure proportional representation ensuring Parliamentary seats were distributed proportionally to the overall list votes each party received. Just another silly quirk (that I wasn't aware of until now), like ACT and UF being in Parliament with zero point something of the votes while the Conservatives got over 4% and have noone in Parliament !!


Yes the quirk in this case is an existing list MP is standing in a seat & if successful will mean he vacates his list position & is replaced by someone else from the same party on the list. However isn't the net effect the same? I.e. if in a by-election under FPP the seat changed hands, the party that won the seat gains an extra MP & the sitting party that lost, lose one. Its the same under MMP.

[craic]

A simple result. National win the seat, I am $500 richer - Anyone else wins, I am $500 poorer. At least thays my understanding of the wager on the table. Another possible interpretation is that should Winston Peters win, then the country is effectively governed by the Clown Prince of politicians and the whole bloody place ends up like Northland.

[elZorro]

A simple result. National win the seat, I am $500 richer - Anyone else wins, I am $500 poorer. At least thays my understanding of the wager on the table. Another possible interpretation is that should Winston Peters win, then the country is effectively governed by the Clown Prince of politicians and the whole bloody place ends up like Northland.

That's right, Craic, happy with the wording on the wager. Winston seems to be working hard up there, lots of visits to do according to his facebook page. The voters will have their say.

[Sgt Pepper]

That's right, Craic, happy with the wording on the wager. Winston seems to be working hard up there, lots of visits to do according to his facebook page. The voters will have their say.

EZ
This is proving to be a very interesting by election. Or should it be a " buy election"??

[RTM]

Agreed. Very interesting.
I can't see that Northland folk can miss out by voting for Winston.
If he gets in...the spend up by National in Northland to secure the seat at the next election will be significant.
Win for Northland

If he narrowly misses...the spend up by National in Northland to secure the seat at the next election will be significant.
Win for Northland

We've already had more promises / visits than ever before by National.

It seems to be a no brainer.
Apologies if this has already been said. Have not checked all of the thread.

Cheers, RTM (Kerikeri)

[iceman]

You seem confident enough craig so go and spend it on a few stiff ones down at the club. Happy St Patricks day��


A simple result. National win the seat, I am $500 richer - Anyone else wins, I am $500 poorer. At least thays my understanding of the wager on the table. Another possible interpretation is that should Winston Peters win, then the country is effectively governed by the Clown Prince of politicians and the whole bloody place ends up like Northland.

[elZorro]

I'm thinking maybe I should have made it $1,000, Craic. But it's a while to go, best I take it easy.

I like RTM's comment, it really is a no-brainer to vote for Winston. This process has to be good for Northland, no matter what the outcome.

Winston's family was sharemilking at one stage, up North. He's certainly at home there. (https://www.facebook.com/winstonpeters)

A very recent article, even the conservative Bill English has been prompted to head up North (in comfort of course, not in a bus). Andrew Little is starting to give a very clear message. That's more like it.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/67424293/northland-byelection-national-continues-to-send-big-guns

YourNZ was predicting an easy National win a few days ago. They have changed their tune today.

http://yournz.org/2015/03/17/trouble-for-national-in-northland/

And now here is an NBR article from the incredibly energetic journalist Bruce Edwards, who has been able to link all of the possible by-election information together. This would have to be an interesting set of links to follow up.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/nz-politics-daily-bizarre-election

Here's one of them, from Toby Manhire.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11416352

[neopoleII]

heres a question
what if winnie wins northland and his team (me, myself and I) gets a parliament seat.....
would his long standing group of elderly hardcore voters still respect him and keep giving him their votes?
or will winnie now only concentrate on the northland seat to secure his one seat plus 5% of the national vote from his pre dementia loyalists?
it seems the oldies are being cashed in for the big portion of jandal wearing beach (bottom) benies.
the benies might not have a clue..... but some of the oldies will recognize they have been used.....
fun and games in kiwi politics...... lol

[Daytr]

Spot on RTM, I said at the last election for Northland to get any attention the seat needs to become marginal. Now thanks to Super Winnie its possible. Has anyone ever overturned such a large majority? Its certainly going to be close, whatever the outcome. Northland has never seen so many ministers scurrying around, restaurants fill of Nat party renta crowd. They are spending a fortune and a lot of it tax payer money, billboards 10 : 1 of any other party & I'm not exaggerating. The funny thing is, its such a contrast as we normally only see these guys on Waitangi day that in many cases its backfiring.
I saw Steven Joyce hiding in some bushes outside the electorate office on the phone, in plain view of anyone driving by. It was hilarious & it looked terrible, as if he didn't trust his own team who he seemed to be hiding from.


Agreed. Very interesting.
I can't see that Northland folk can miss out by voting for Winston.
If he gets in...the spend up by National in Northland to secure the seat at the next election will be significant.
Win for Northland

If he narrowly misses...the spend up by National in Northland to secure the seat at the next election will be significant.
Win for Northland

We've already had more promises / visits than ever before by National.

It seems to be a no brainer.
Apologies if this has already been said. Have not checked all of the thread.

Cheers, RTM (Kerikeri)

[Daytr]

By the way the best campaigner up here is Paula Bennett. Please National, keep sending her to campaign. Every time she opens her mouth she makes the opposition look good ! ;)
What are they thinking !
Or clearly they aren't and that's half their problem. How on earth did she ever get elected?!

[craic]

I know that this forum is full of Labour supporters jollying each other along in their fantasy world but I am amazed that, apart from LZ, none are prepared to put their money where their mouth is. I put $1000 on the table and there is still $500 to be taken up. My position is that this seat is a National seat and will remain so after the election. If you believe in Winston Peters or any of the fantasies promoted here, put your dollars on the table. And thanks for the advice on Patricks Day - I have had the requisite number shots of the hard stuff in the comfort of my own home - and it was all free.

[elZorro]

I know that this forum is full of Labour supporters jollying each other along in their fantasy world but I am amazed that, apart from LZ, none are prepared to put their money where their mouth is. I put $1000 on the table and there is still $500 to be taken up. My position is that this seat is a National seat and will remain so after the election. If you believe in Winston Peters or any of the fantasies promoted here, put your dollars on the table. And thanks for the advice on Patricks Day - I have had the requisite number shots of the hard stuff in the comfort of my own home - and it was all free.

I'm happy with the bet as it stands, Craic.

Not sure who it was that said NZ First would simply side with National in 2017. Unlikely going from their website: the only paragraph where they spell out their reason for being, and it's surprisingly Labour-like.


What We Stand ForNew Zealand First was set up to arrest the social and economic decline of this country and to restore its status as a land of fairness and opportunity. We believe in the dignity of work and adequate reward for labour. The basic needs of adequate food, shelter, healthcare and education must be met. The state must also protect its citizens and ensure their wellbeing is not threatened by reckless trade and defence alliances. We believe society should protect those most vulnerable. New Zealand First wants to attack the appalling level of poverty and the lack of fairness in economic and social policies. As a country we have to use our resources and our ingenuity to earn more without spoiling our environment or enslaving our people.

[iceman]

EZ, if Winston First will be faced with forming a Government with National or alternatively with Labour and the Greens, which option do you think he will take ?
I don't really know what Winston stands for apart from himself, but he's definitely not a leftie !

I would also hazard a guess that if he does not win Northland, his political career will end when this term finishes !


I'm happy with the bet as it stands, Craic.

Not sure who it was that said NZ First would simply side with National in 2017. Unlikely going from their website: the only paragraph where they spell out their reason for being, and it's surprisingly Labour-like.

[elZorro]

EZ, if Winston First will be faced with forming a Government with National or alternatively with Labour and the Greens, which option do you think he will take ?
I don't really know what Winston stands for apart from himself, but he's definitely not a leftie !

I would also hazard a guess that if he does not win Northland, his political career will end when this term finishes !

Iceman, I'm hoping that Labour get a lot more organised by 2017. This by-election is simply a warm-up for opposition parties. Winston might be more of a centrist.

John Key? Spotted this cartoon.

[Daytr]

Craic, huge assumption that people are Labor supporters. I wont dare speak for others unlike you seem to be comfortable to do, however I voted in the last election for the local Labour candidate despite her party as she is a great candidate & I can't stand Key. Unfortunately Prime is the sideshow in what has become a two horse race. The main reason Winston Peters is doing well has nothing to do with Labor or its supporters but people who have supported National for years are fed up. Northland has been neglected by the party that has their vote for over 40 years. People don't want to be spied on & they want some integrity from their leaders an error where Key fails again & again. They realize Winston is hard working & ethical & will bring much needed attention to Northland, the most impoverished province in the country.
In regards your market you are offering, its a terrible market. Here is basically one guy, Winston Peters taking on the might of the entire sitting government & also ring to overturn an 8k plus majority. A feat suggest that has probably never been achieved before & you are offering straight odds ! Give me a break ! In saying all that he may just pull it off! Taking nothing for granted though.



I know that this forum is full of Labour supporters jollying each other along in their fantasy world but I am amazed that, apart from LZ, none are prepared to put their money where their mouth is. I put $1000 on the table and there is still $500 to be taken up. My position is that this seat is a National seat and will remain so after the election. If you believe in Winston Peters or any of the fantasies promoted here, put your dollars on the table. And thanks for the advice on Patricks Day - I have had the requisite number shots of the hard stuff in the comfort of my own home - and it was all free.

[craic]

Daytr, You can't stand John Key, you voted Labour last election. Your posts and those facts alone define you. I admire John Key as an intelligent leader and I am with the majority in every poll on that alone. But like you, I voted for a losing party at the last election. I was once a fervent supporter of Winston Peters until I became aware of his tendancy to run around supporting emotive issues that gained publicity rather than dealing with the needs of the nation. Whether you like it or not, this country is better off now than it has been for years. I was talking to an elderly Canadian couple at the end of Tolaga Bay wharf a fortnight ago and we compared pensions, Natrional Superannuation, ours was three times what theirs is and they are income tested. And, more people are coming home from Australia now than are emmigrating.

[RTM]

I don't think I have ever voted Labour and I am not an NZ First supporter.
Nevertheless my vote goes to WP.



Daytr, You can't stand John Key, you voted Labour last election. Your posts and those facts alone define you. I admire John Key as an intelligent leader and I am with the majority in every poll on that alone. But like you, I voted for a losing party at the last election. I was once a fervent supporter of Winston Peters until I became aware of his tendancy to run around supporting emotive issues that gained publicity rather than dealing with the needs of the nation. Whether you like it or not, this country is better off now than it has been for years. I was talking to an elderly Canadian couple at the end of Tolaga Bay wharf a fortnight ago and we compared pensions, Natrional Superannuation, ours was three times what theirs is and they are income tested. And, more people are coming home from Australia now than are emmigrating.

[Daytr]

Craic, what arrogance to say from a few posts defines a person. I stand by every post I make, but this is a very small part of my life & I assume yours. So give me a break. If this was the case you are someone who offers very unsporting markets & expects others to be gullible. Apologies El Zoro but I think you bet with your heart not your head. Odds should have at least been 2:1.
I agree Key is intelligent. I had high hopes for him when he first go elected. I thought here is a leader & I give him that he is. But his policy has been so extremely right wing. If money is all you care about & as long as I'm alright as I am part of the middle class or above then Key is your man. Personally I do very well under Key, from a purely financial perspective. However I will always do alright & its not the likes of me that needs a helping hand.
National economic policy imo is short sighted & is far too narrow. Focusing on primary industry & trying to develop a mining & resources industry in a country who's geology, geography & environment generally don't suit it. They cut budgets for the likes of DOC & tried to corporatise it. If you are going down a path of mining etc. at least have some offset. They obviously don't believe in Climate Change in fact Paula Bennett has said so on the campaign trail. Their policy is so 20th century its not funny. No sustainability, to concentrated on the likes of dairy & in the mean time in a few short years destroying NZs green clean image our tourism relies on. In short they have no vision beyond the next election cycle & looking after the already better off. Winston love him or hate him stands for things and has integrity, something Key severely lacks. Winston has held to account both sides of politics & he will be a wonderful advocate for Northland.

[Major von Tempsky]

I know that this forum is full of Labour supporters jollying each other along in their fantasy world but I am amazed that, apart from LZ, none are prepared to put their money where their mouth is. I put $1000 on the table and there is still $500 to be taken up. My position is that this seat is a National seat and will remain so after the election. If you believe in Winston Peters or any of the fantasies promoted here, put your dollars on the table. And thanks for the advice on Patricks Day - I have had the requisite number shots of the hard stuff in the comfort of my own home - and it was all free.

Some very perceptive comments Craic. I too am amazed that this board is dominated by Labour Party nutters when the one vote we did have here before the election was a walkover for National and ACT as you would expect from investors. There is obviously a large silent majority who come here, read EZ, spit, and do something else. I did 2 significant trades on the NZX in the last 2 days, I'd be surprised if the leftwingers did 2 trades a year. I read Whaleoil.co.nz incl Cameron Slater as some light relief from EZ :-) And by the way Daytr, if what you say is true....if...if...how did Paula Bennett get in her own seat in the last election with such a large majority....


2014 General election results – electorate candidate votes







Candidate

Valid Votes

Share (%)


BENNETT, Paula (NAT) 18,315 56.54
RETZLAFF, Hermann (LAB) 8,623 26.62
MAYNE, Nicholas (GP) 2,619 8.08
BLAIR, Callum (CNSP) 1,839 5.68
BERRY, Stephen (ACT) 549 1.69
TE HAU, Hinurewa (MAOR) 246 0.76
NGATA, Makelesi (MANA) 204 0.63
Total Valid Votes 32,395 100
Total Votes Cast 33,797 104.33

Winning Candidate: BENNETT, Paula - margin 9692

[elZorro]

Some very perceptive comments Craic. I too am amazed that this board is dominated by Labour Party nutters when the one vote we did have here before the election was a walkover for National and ACT as you would expect from investors. There is obviously a large silent majority who come here, read EZ, spit, and do something else. I did 2 significant trades on the NZX in the last 2 days, I'd be surprised if the leftwingers did 2 trades a year. I read Whaleoil.co.nz incl Cameron Slater as some light relief from EZ :-) And by the way Daytr, if what you say is true....if...if...how did Paula Bennett get in her own seat in the last election with such a large majority....


2014 General election results – electorate candidate votes







Candidate

Valid Votes

Share (%)


BENNETT, Paula (NAT) 18,315 56.54
RETZLAFF, Hermann (LAB) 8,623 26.62
MAYNE, Nicholas (GP) 2,619 8.08
BLAIR, Callum (CNSP) 1,839 5.68
BERRY, Stephen (ACT) 549 1.69
TE HAU, Hinurewa (MAOR) 246 0.76
NGATA, Makelesi (MANA) 204 0.63
Total Valid Votes 32,395 100
Total Votes Cast 33,797 104.33

Winning Candidate: BENNETT, Paula - margin 9692

Thanks for the kind comments MVT. You are as usual, extremely well researched. Paula Bennett won by a huge margin, but I'm sure that considering her name exposure in the press, the type of electorate she represents, and the fact that I bet most of her campaign funds came from National's head office, she was always going to do well against someone with a non-UK name and no funding, to be fair.

Look, Winston is going to win in Northland, from where I'm sitting. They're bluffing it out, but National are going to see a most embarrassing loss up there, within 2 weeks. Labour's campaign is extremely average, they are baking biscuits for fundraising and posting baby photos, while Winston is visiting businesses and bigger meetings, travelling with the big sign-written bus. Even National's limousines are going to rub up the wrong way. I'm going to enjoy watching the result on TV.

[Daytr]

Sabin won by a huge majority as well. Labor nutters, god some people love generalizing & labeling people. Mate I come from the same industry as John Key, I traded markets for a living & advised many of the ASX200 companies for 15 years! Hardly your typical Labour voter now is it!
So I take it you are a fan of Paula Bennett? Says something.

A certain prominent New Zealander's name suppression is reviewed tomorrow.
Just saying.

[Daytr]

As I said I'm all for Paula Bennett to campaign as much as possible & keep running off at the mouth as she makes everyone else look good !
Keep up the good work Paula ! And just to think because she is a sitting MP all those flights, cars etc is being funded by taxpayers just to help the opposition ! Love Paula Bennett

[westerly]

Daytr, You can't stand John Key, you voted Labour last election. Your posts and those facts alone define you. I admire John Key as an intelligent leader and I am with the majority in every poll on that alone. But like you, I voted for a losing party at the last election. I was once a fervent supporter of Winston Peters until I became aware of his tendancy to run around supporting emotive issues that gained publicity rather than dealing with the needs of the nation. Whether you like it or not, this country is better off now than it has been for years. I was talking to an elderly Canadian couple at the end of Tolaga Bay wharf a fortnight ago and we compared pensions, Natrional Superannuation, ours was three times what theirs is and they are income tested. And, more people are coming home from Australia now than are emmigrating.

As you say you are defined by your comments. Anyone struggling to buy their first home while paying high rent would possibly disagree with your rosy view of New Zealand. Mind you they can always shift to some small town where there are no prospects.
The Canadian pension plans are means tested something which should also happen in NZ but no politician would be brave enough to suggest that.
One reason W.P. is popular with older voters is his willingness to speak out on subjects like immigration, which is of concern to many but in this PC world has become almost a taboo subject along with the Treaty.
As an aside did you know gambling on elections in NZ is illegal? ;) Ipredict has a special dispensation.

westerly

[Major von Tempsky]

I'm not a fan or otherwise of Paula Bennett, I just take her as she comes.

It just strikes me that a blanket condemnation that she is totally useless and counterproductive is at total variance with the facts I quoted above that she won her seat with 10,000 more votes than the next highest candidate who happened to be Labour.

Obviously the average voter disagreed emphatically with your assessment which means you have to take a good look at yourself, the essence of democracy is that the average voter is right and people like Andrea Vance, Chris Trotter, John Minto, need to adjust themselves to reality.

[neopoleII]

""Anyone struggling to buy their first home while paying high rent""..... hasnt this always been the case? and i might be wrong but i thought the largest percentage of house price increase was under helens rule.
""Mind you they can always shift to some small town where there are no prospects.""
whats wrong with small towns? oh yeah...... the small manufacturing companies in those small towns got destroyed when helens government said" China... most favored nation" and opened the barn doors to mass produced cheap goods..... bye bye small town.
""One reason W.P. is popular with older voters is his willingness to speak out on subjects like immigration""
ummm..... helen opened those doors too, to all the Asiatic countries and the MASS of welcomed immigrates.

but we all know the difference between a left wing voter and a right wing voter..........
left wing wants cheap import products purchased from overseas manufactures, and high wagers from their local employers...... even though they wont buy the products they make for their boss. and a fair living wage or benefit for those that cant wont work.
and the right wing wants....... no point saying the truth on this thread....
just too funny........ and i grew up in a town that has 10 foot high fences around its schools.

[blackcap]

The Canadian pension plans are means tested something which should also happen in NZ but no politician would be brave enough to suggest that.


westerly

Really, would you want that Westerly? That strikes me as counter productive and would just assist in those with assets "gifting" those before they turn 65 and the accountants and lawyers would have a field day. Also I think means testing pensions is just not equitable. It encourages spending and penalises the savers. Sorry but no go for me.

[elZorro]

What happened to Cuzzie, the current account expert on the thread? As expected, the old borrowing ways have resumed, and the current account deficit is worsening again. Not helped by low dairy prices, and a still buoyant local economy that is often overseas owned.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11419409&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+19 +March+2015

[artemis]

As you say you are defined by your comments. Anyone struggling to buy their first home while paying high rent would possibly disagree with your rosy view of New Zealand. Mind you they can always shift to some small town where there are no prospects. ......

It's mainly an Auckland problem. A bit in Christchurch but that will even out over time, and short to medium job prospects are good there. Plenty of jobs outside Auckland, and not just in small towns. However, there will continue to be a decline in unskilled jobs in some sectors.

[craic]

One of my papers at uni was Occupational and vocational psychology. a significant area,as i remember it was "Man machine systems" and I was struck by the reality that men invent machines to replace men and that will go on 'till the end of time. When I was a child we had cows and they had to milked by hand, churns had to be scrubbed out by hand daily and the milk had to be poured from a can into a measure and tipped into a jug or whatever container the house wife left by the backdoor or held in her hand or whatever. Five families in our village made a meagre living this way for a twelve hour day, seven days a week. No force on earth will return us to the labour-intensive world where everyone has a paid job, a house a car and and no responsibility other than to turn up to work and perform some labour for forty hours less breaks.

[Daytr]

NeopoleII, who is we?
With sweeping generalizations like that I would suggest you know very little.


but we all know the difference between a left wing voter and a right wing voter..........
left wing wants cheap import products purchased from overseas manufactures, and high wagers from their local employers...... even though they wont buy the products they make for their boss. and a fair living wage or benefit for those that cant wont work.
and the right wing wants....... no point saying the truth on this thread....
just too funny........ and i grew up in a town that has 10 foot high fences around its schools.[/QUOTE]

[Daytr]

Artemis, there certainly aren't many jobs in Northland. Unemployment stands at 9% and youth unemployment 27% I believe.
I realize its a global thing with urbanization, however centralization of government services is also contributing. They are now looking at centralizing the council into one super council in Whangarei which will be another nail in the coffin of regional Northland.
Also Northland has more unemployment than other similar regions in NZ.


It's mainly an Auckland problem. A bit in Christchurch but that will even out over time, and short to medium job prospects are good there. Plenty of jobs outside Auckland, and not just in small towns. However, there will continue to be a decline in unskilled jobs in some sectors.

[Daytr]

Yep, taken a good look at myself & I look great! ;)
I was saying she has been a liability on the campaign trail in Northland.
There have been some Paula moments that the opposition have been able to seize on.
Such as the one in regards Climate Change is just scare mongering by scientists & that despite the weed problem we will still fund Northland.
Not sure what she has been smoking, but we haven't seen our fair share of funding over the last 40 yeas.
I take Paula Bennett for what she is as well & that's a liability.
And as I said as I want National out, I hope they keep wheeling out the Paula Bennett show.
Its great fodder for Super Winnie !


I'm not a fan or otherwise of Paula Bennett, I just take her as she comes.

It just strikes me that a blanket condemnation that she is totally useless and counterproductive is at total variance with the facts I quoted above that she won her seat with 10,000 more votes than the next highest candidate who happened to be Labour.

Obviously the average voter disagreed emphatically with your assessment which means you have to take a good look at yourself, the essence of democracy is that the average voter is right and people like Andrea Vance, Chris Trotter, John Minto, need to adjust themselves to reality.

[westerly]

Really, would you want that Westerly? That strikes me as counter productive and would just assist in those with assets "gifting" those before they turn 65 and the accountants and lawyers would have a field day. Also I think means testing pensions is just not equitable. It encourages spending and penalises the savers. Sorry but no go for me.

My error; I agree, means testing is not equitable. Income testing is what I should have proposed. I think in Canada it starts at roughly $C70000

westerly

[fungus pudding]

My error; I agree, means testing is not equitable. Income testing is what I should have proposed. I think in Canada it starts at roughly $C70000

westerly

Income testing is means testing.

[artemis]

Income testing is means testing.

Yes it does normally mean income. But 'means' refers to what a person or family has available to them, and could/should include assets. As in 'a person of means'. In practice, income testing and asset testing need to go hand in hand, or there will be wholesale swapping between them.

[Daytr]

Perhaps assets outside the family home? I know it can still be fudged, but I don't think many are going spend a fortune on their home just to $300 a week or whatever it is, & perhaps it could be scaled out rather tan a hard & fast line.

[artemis]

Artemis, there certainly aren't many jobs in Northland. Unemployment stands at 9% and youth unemployment 27% I believe.
I realize its a global thing with urbanization, however centralization of government services is also contributing. They are now looking at centralizing the council into one super council in Whangarei which will be another nail in the coffin of regional Northland. Also Northland has more unemployment than other similar regions in NZ.

Maybe the anti mining protesters should get out of the way then and Northland can follow Taranaki's example. And what about the Ngapuhi treaty settlement which is being delayed by infighting. Plus there is supposed to be a significant black economy in Northland. How many working in that economy are also recorded in the unemployment figures?

In any case that is just one region and there are lots of jobs available elsewhere. How about the thousands of seasonal workers that come in every year? Noting to stop the unemployed working a few months a year in seasonal jobs, and they might decide they prefer it to lying on the sofa with the xbox.

I am sure I heard Grant Robertson say recently that youth unemployment (NEETs) in the region was around 15%. Not 27%.

[artemis]

Perhaps assets outside the family home? I know it can still be fudged, but I don't think many are going spend a fortune on their home just to $300 a week or whatever it is, & perhaps it could be scaled out rather tan a hard & fast line.

Think of all the bureaucrats, lawyers and accountants who will be busy. That's the case in Australia which has a complex income and assets regime according to my rellies there who have (their words) creative accountants. Needs a cost benefit analysis before any such decision is made - current system is dead simple to understand and administer, and bear in mind marginal tax rates kick in so it's not all free money. Plus, which political party is going to campaign on this policy. Yep. None.

Maybe a rise in eligibility age would be more acceptable though.

[Daytr]

Yep you are right its political leprosy, but that's not to say it shouldn't be done.
As long as its a meaningful figure.
The difficulty is when you include the family home people in Auckland say are penalized as home values are much higher.
There is a lot of law around intent, I would like to see this more used in regards tax avoidance.

[Daytr]

Are you serious!
Ignorance reigns I see.
How would you like it if the party that is culpable for the compensation was dictating who they will negotiate with even if its not the correct authority?
Well I just looked up the unemployment stats. on-line but its hard to get a break down by age. What I did see is participation rate dropped from 64% to 61% in Northland from 2012 to 2013. Not a great stat. !
In regards mining, yes lets rip up one of the most beautiful parts of the country & that has high rainfall & flooding virtually every year. Perhaps people want better & a sustainable vision. Perhaps they want better roads without slips & potholes on their main highways rather than 10 new bridges.
Northland is a massive primary industry exporter, however little value is retained here. The Nats are so out of touch in regards what the average Northlander wants. By the way the Nats. have already tried to silence one protestor community action group courtesy of Dr Reti. But according to him his behavior which was boarder on blackmail was in his words "good". Great standard they have set for themselves there.


Maybe the anti mining protesters should get out of the way then and Northland can follow Taranaki's example. And what about the Ngapuhi treaty settlement which is being delayed by infighting. Plus there is supposed to be a significant black economy in Northland. How many working in that economy are also recorded in the unemployment figures?

In any case that is just one region and there are lots of jobs available elsewhere. How about the thousands of seasonal workers that come in every year? Noting to stop the unemployed working a few months a year in seasonal jobs, and they might decide they prefer it to lying on the sofa with the xbox.

I am sure I heard Grant Robertson say recently that youth unemployment (NEETs) in the region was around 15%. Not 27%.

[westerly]

""...
just too funny........ and i grew up in a town that has 10 foot high fences around its schools.

And where would that be?

westerly

[elZorro]

Some possibly good news from Scoop today. If you are a leftie.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1503/S00222/peters-to-win-northland-ipredict.htm

Mark Osborne in a not-so-good radio interview. He knew the rumours about Sabin, but wasn't going to let that stop Sabin from being a candidate for Northland in 2014.

http://www.radiolive.co.nz/AUDIO-Northland-candidate-knew-about-Sabin-rumours/tabid/506/articleID/74915/Default.aspx

[Daytr]

El Zorro, that's not quite correct. He says he knew in December when he starting seeing things in the paper so that's well past the election.
However Anne Tolly minister of police at the time refuses to answer the question if she knew. If she didn't why wouldn't she just say so?

[neopoleII]

to daytr..... it seems that in my previous post that you commented on the only word or words you were worried about was "we"
and "some" know that is a favorite socialist word.... so my mistake...... at least you didnt complain about the things helen did.

to westerly..... here is a link to my old school.... i admit the fence is not 10 ft tall but they do have a "contraband" check point
controlled by the cops..... as it was all those years ago when i was there...... but then some might dispute the google camara.
and i have mentioned the school i went to many times in other threads.
https://www.google.co.nz/maps/@-37.034503,174.886191,3a,75y,164.57h,84.83t/data=!3m4!1e1!3m2!1s7Oq4Da8nKQaB8o8xrHOdcw!2e0

not sure the link will work.... so the school is james cook high school in manurewa.
the school actually gave me a good education, with lots of help from my parents....
so the school is not blame for the districts issues..... it seems to be the parents.

from now on i will refrain to IMHO
cheers guys

[elZorro]

El Zorro, that's not quite correct. He says he knew in December when he starting seeing things in the paper so that's well past the election.
However Anne Tolly minister of police at the time refuses to answer the question if she knew. If she didn't why wouldn't she just say so?

OK, I might have not listened to the whole interview Daytr. It does seem like the whole of Northland knows about the allegations by now, and it seems to be filtering down to the Waikato too. This no doubt has an effect on the voting up there.

It looks to me like the National side of the vote on ipredict is lacking at the moment. They are not putting up any cash because, well, they know they have already lost the by-election. They're not that crazy.

[westerly]

to westerly..... here is a link to my old school.... i admit the fence is not 10 ft tall but they do have a "contraband" check point
controlled by the cops..... as it was all those years ago when i was there...... but then some might dispute the google camara.
and i have mentioned the school i went to many times in other threads.
https://www.google.co.nz/maps/@-37.034503,174.886191,3a,75y,164.57h,84.83t/data=!3m4!1e1!3m2!1s7Oq4Da8nKQaB8o8xrHOdcw!2e0

not sure the link will work.... so the school is james cook high school in manurewa.
the school actually gave me a good education, with lots of help from my parents....
so the school is not blame for the districts issues..... it seems to be the parents.

from now on i will refrain to IMHO
cheers guys

The fence looks about the same as the primary school's one down the road. Not sure if it is to keep the kids in or the public out.
Agree with you on the parents as far as issues go but they seem to happen these days not just in the poorer areas.
Intrigued by the check point.

westerly

[Daytr]

Well 1) I'm not a lefty & 2) as I was living overseas for the reign of Helen Clark so I didn't think I was in a position of authority to comment.
But by no means does it suggest I just accept your broad sweeping statements were down to Clark, when most of the things you mention were also happening in every other part of the Western world.
I'll tell you one thing, their was great respect for Helen Clark in Australia.
But like most 3rd termer she & as we are seeing with Key, think they are invincible & don't have to listen anymore & become more dictatorial & that's typically their downfall. Muldoon was the same.

[Daytr]

I went to school in paradise, probably accounts for my rosy demeanor . :t_up:

[neopoleII]

i grew up in a south auckalnd area that was not as nice as the European community that my parents immigrated from in the early 70's
but they did what they thought was best for the family.... i have been back to my birth place as an adult and i still think that my folks made the right choice.
as an adult, i know i live in paradise, but then, i was lucky to a fair education and enough nouse to move into the rural district i live in now.
but it still saddens me to drive through manurewa and see the dispair...... but i also recognize that it is Not the governments fault..... left or right wing.
I will say though.... someone has to stop what is happening to our poorer communities..... and i can say IMHO that the left and right wing of politics
have it wrong over soo many years.
One party wants to dish out wads of cash, the other wants to stymin the benefit cash flow.

One day in the future, our poor communities will have targeted help........ this means crims get punished for real, the local folks can walk down the street safely,
and those that wish to succeed get the chance, and the lazy are encourage.

I was raised to believe that welfare was a backstop or a support mechanism for those that fell off the path or hit a bump in their lifes journey.
in todays world welfare is a career for many or an optional extra depending on how some approach the welfare system.
is this fair...... no...... is one or the other political party to blame...... no....
it needs a unity of all parties to end or at least reverse what is happening.
otherwise...... the gap will continue to grow bigger, and the opposing views of those interested in politics will also grow wider.

the center is where people shake hands.

[Daytr]

Well said NeopoleII !
I am actually trying to launch a targeted program here in the North, but it will need supporting from both sides of politics.

[winner69]

EZ .....iPredict has Winston (or other than Nat or Lab) at 77% probability of winning ....with odds shortening every day.

Sure thing by the looks of it, maybe craic has been doing a bit of laying off.

[Daytr]

Really! I think if you went by social media up here you would think Winnie is a shoe in, but then a lot of National voters are older as well who don't use social media, so difficult to tell. Come on Super Winnie ! I doubt anyone has ever overturned that sort of majority in NZ political history.

[winner69]

Prediction markets with real money at stake usually right on the mark

It's all Winston

https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=graph&sym=BE15.NTD.OTHER&size=xlg&col=%230392D7&cbgcolor=%230089EF&bgcolor=%23FFFFFF

[craic]

I don't have to lay off - If I put money on the table I consider it lost at that point. That is the only way to gamble. You pay for the game and if you win, then you can enjoy another game. I am looking at a few bob on Mark DuPlesis' mounts on saturday. Couple of loads of firewood, delivered should cover that. Saturday night I'll watch the King of the Maori Cowboys (his name escapes me at the moment) and have a light meal and a couple at the Club. A few G's from spark next month should see me right for a while and go for spending money in Adelaide - but then, National might win so the future is looking brighter by the minute.

[elZorro]

The Northland by-election result could have all sorts of ramifications, most of them good ones, as far as I'm concerned.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11420130&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+20+M arch+2015

[Major von Tempsky]

Really! I think if you went by social media up here you would think Winnie is a shoe in, but then a lot of National voters are older as well who don't use social media, so difficult to tell. Come on Super Winnie ! I doubt anyone has ever overturned that sort of majority in NZ political history.

Yes, Dean Barker in the last Americas Cup....

[Daytr]

Haha indeed!


Yes, Dean Barker in the last Americas Cup....

[Daytr]

What was the big plunge yesterday? Big bet placed on Super Winnie?


Prediction markets with real money at stake usually right on the mark

It's all Winston

https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=graph&sym=BE15.NTD.OTHER&size=xlg&col=%230392D7&cbgcolor=%230089EF&bgcolor=%23FFFFFF

[Aaron]

National and Winston have some real competition in the pork barrel politics stakes. I like the independent who wants a flat 5% tax rate for Northlanders only, and a rise in tax for the rest of NZ to make up for Northlanders tax cut. I just wonder how he will get that through parliament if he wins. Should boost Northland's population quickly and I imagine every major NZ company would soon relocate their headquarters to Whangarei. He is a visionary but may struggle to sell his vision to the rest of NZ.

[winner69]

What was the big plunge yesterday? Big bet placed on Super Winnie?

Interesting ......(it was against Winnie winning)

Some would say Nats insiders doing some sneaky stuff and trying to manipulate public sentiment.

Back to 60 cents already

[fungus pudding]

Really! I think if you went by social media up here you would think Winnie is a shoe in, but then a lot of National voters are older as well who don't use social media, so difficult to tell. Come on Super Winnie ! I doubt anyone has ever overturned that sort of majority in NZ political history.

All reminiscent of the hype around the nearly forgotten Kim DotCon.

[Daytr]

Well the independent polls are suggesting its far more than hype.
You can't really compare the longest standing member of the NZ parliament that got a strong showing at the last election to Kim Dotcom.
I wonder if National will put it down to hype if they lose & have the biggest swing against a sitting part in NZs political history?
If they lose this is going to be incredibly embarrassing for Key & National.
Remember Key said at the start of this campaign that Super Winnie had no chance. He ain't taking things for granted now, even cutting short his trip to Japan to campaign, because apparently that's in the best interests of the country & so is having half of the cabinet ministers not doing their job, all to campaign against one man. Super Winnie !:)


All reminiscent of the hype around the nearly forgotten Kim DotCon.

[Major von Tempsky]

And maybe when the votes are counted there will be a large hissing of hot air and Daytr won't be seen again here for quite a while.

Are the Northland electors stupid enough to swallow Winston First's promise of aid to a Port which no longer exists? (Port Whangarei) Are they stupid enough to swallow the promise of a railway to a Port when all the businessmen say they don't want it? Don't forget the recent polls in Israel which "showed" Netanyahu was going out in the very recent election - result Netanyahu will still be PM.
Don't count your chickens before they are hatched Daytr....lots of other examples in history....the polls that showed Thatcher would lose in the 1970 General Election (she won), the polls that showed Truman would lose in 1948 (he won).....

[Sgt Pepper]

And maybe when the votes are counted there will be a large hissing of hot air and Daytr won't be seen again here for quite a while.

Are the Northland electors stupid enough to swallow Winston First's promise of aid to a Port which no longer exists? (Port Whangarei) Are they stupid enough to swallow the promise of a railway to a Port when all the businessmen say they don't want it? Don't forget the recent polls in Israel which "showed" Netanyahu was going out in the very recent election - result Netanyahu will still be PM.
Don't count your chickens before they are hatched Daytr....lots of other examples in history....(she won), the polls that showed Truman would lose in 1948 (he won).....

Major
"the polls that showed Thatcher would lose in the 1970 General Election "

I am a bit confused with that one, Margaret Thatcher was the opposition education spokesperson in 1970??

[winner69]

EZ you might enjoy this Tom Scott cartoon. Cartoonists are having a field day this month

[Daytr]

Speaking of hot air MVT, I said IF National loses.
I think it always pays to read what people write before shooting your mouth off, but hey that's just me.
Remember I'm the one who actually lives in Northland and has had to put up with National's neglect.

[elZorro]

EZ you might enjoy this Tom Scott cartoon. Cartoonists are having a field day this month

Oh, that is a cracker, W69. Maybe there are some things that pollsters can't fix. At the end of the day, etc, voters want integrity. That's what Winston is campaigning on. So far, he's been gifted quite a few freebies by National, but he must have done his homework first, he knew he was in with a chance long before he paid for the sound track and the signwritten bus.

[Daytr]

And by the way, what do you mean Whangarei Port doesn't exist ! Its Marsden Point for god's sake! You know the only refinery in NZ !
Makes me laugh when someone slags someone off & then just posts a lot of crap. Just how many errors are in that post!
I think we have discovered NZs next renewable energy source, its called MVT !

[Daytr]

But I want the virgins ! Well just women really ! :cool:

[fungus pudding]

Well the independent polls are suggesting its far more than hype.
You can't really compare the longest standing member of the NZ parliament that got a strong showing at the last election to Kim Dotcom.
I wonder if National will put it down to hype if they lose & have the biggest swing against a sitting part in NZs political history?
If they lose this is going to be incredibly embarrassing for Key & National.
Remember Key said at the start of this campaign that Super Winnie had no chance. He ain't taking things for granted now, even cutting short his trip to Japan to campaign, because apparently that's in the best interests of the country & so is having half of the cabinet ministers not doing their job, all to campaign against one man. Super Winnie !:)

National may lose. Winston manages to resurrect himself occasionally, sufficiently enough to sway enough of the grey haired and forgetful. If he does win he'll prove himself to be the waste of space he has always been.

[Daytr]

Well I tell you what its the younger generation generally that seem to want him to win.
On social media which you would generally expect it to be under 50s, its overwhelmingly in favor of Peters.
And what have they forgotten? That he has stood up to both sides of politics when they weren't serving the best interests of NZ.
That he was the only one who tried to bring those responsible to account for mass tax evasion in the wine box scandal.
That he provided the gold card for seniors. My mum loved her gold card.
You have just provided derogatory comments with no substance.
He may not he perfect, but then who is, but he will do a hell of a lot better than the lying scumbags we have representing us now.
And yes I can back up, on multiple occasions where John Key has lied. I'm not anti National, I'm anti John Key's National.

[elZorro]

Well I tell you what its the younger generation generally that seem to want him to win.
On social media which you would generally expect it to be under 50s, its overwhelmingly in favor of Peters.
And what have they forgotten? That he has stood up to both sides of politics when they weren't serving the best interests of NZ.
That he was the only one who tried to bring those responsible to account for mass tax evasion in the wine box scandal.
That he provided the gold card for seniors. My mum loved her gold card.
You have just provided derogatory comments with no substance.
He may not he perfect, but then who is, but he will do a hell of a lot better than the lying scumbags we have representing us now.
And yes I can back up, on multiple occasions where John Key has lied. I'm not anti National, I'm anti John Key's National.

Yes Daytr, I reckon the Gold Card was a stroke of brilliance. Winston winning Northland will be a very important wedge into the idea that National could serve four terms. I hope they don't. Interesting comment came my way today from a Think tank.




Dispatches from the Retreat


Dr Eric Crampton | Head of Research | eric.crampton@nzinitiative.org.nz (wlmailhtml:{859F7BC3-BC06-49EC-89C0-293E8B5037B7}mid://00000036/!x-usc:mailto:eric.crampton@nzinitiative.org.nz)




http://nzinitiative.outreach.co.nz/redirect/YTo2OntzOjM6InVybCI7czo2OToiaHR0cDovL256aW5pdGlhdG l2ZS5vdXRyZWFjaC5jby5uei9pbWFnZS9waWN0dXJlcy9pbmxp bmUvRUNfcGhvdG8uanBnIjtzOjc6Im1lc3NhZ2UiO3M6NToiMT E4MTkiO3M6NDoidHlwZSI7czo1OiJpbWFnZSI7czo3OiJhY2Nv dW50IjtzOjEyOiJuemluaXRpYXRpdmUiO3M6ODoiY2F0ZWdvcn kiO3M6NDoiMTE5NSI7czoxMDoibm90aWZpYWJsZSI7aToxO30. ?oid=3730


You all know The New Zealand Initiative as a great little think tank for a great little country. You might not know that we are also a membership organisation: our work is supported by our members.

Last week we held our annual members’ retreat in Auckland, bringing together our members, represented by the chairs and managing directors of many of the country’s top companies, to discuss the state of play in their particular industry sectors; to speak candidly with the Prime Minister, the Minister of Finance, and the Leader of the Opposition; and to discuss the Initiative’s proposed two-year research plan.

The meetings are held under Chatham House rules so that our members can take their business hats off and provide their individual perspectives. What I can report is that Andrew Little was impressive; 2017 will be a rather more interesting contest than was 2014. Discussions between the members and guests were very productive.

We presented our members with our new report, The Case for Economic Growth, before proposing research into the areas we believe are currently most important for ensuring continued growth. In addition to a few reports on diverse and important topics ranging from earthquake regulation to special economic zones and effects of regulation on the digital economy, we proposed a research plan touching on three key areas.

Our series of prior reports showed what restrictive land use policy has done to housing costs; those policies have also made our cities less efficient. Why do cities choose poor policies? We worry that local government financing has made growth costly for cities despite its being beneficial for the country as a whole. We will look more closely at the role of local government and at its financing to find ways of aligning cities’ interests with those of the country.

Second, while economic growth in New Zealand has been widely shared, perceptions of increased inequality fuel resentment of growth and build support for poor policies. Further, real poverty remains a serious issue. Has National’s shift to an investment approach to poverty relief yielded the benefits we have hoped for? And, can private philanthropy provide important lessons?

Third, we need to know how better to encourage schools to engage in more experimentation to find out what works – to reward success and deal with failure. Local school autonomy gives us the chance to do it properly, so long as the overarching framework is right.

Members encouraged us also to study regulatory costs more broadly. If we took anything from the meeting, it is that while the government has kept spending growth under control, the regulatory estate could use some attention...

[Sgt Pepper]

National may lose. Winston manages to resurrect himself occasionally, sufficiently enough to sway enough of the grey haired and forgetful. If he does win he'll prove himself to be the waste of space he has always been.

FP
I am struggling to understand why National are so desperate. They will still have a functioning majority until the next election. They may have to compromise on proposed RMA changes, so what?? I am not aware of any other proposals that ACT and the Maori Party would not support.

[Daytr]

Well they will, but they will have to rely on Peter Dunn who is against reforms to the RMA & I think the TPPA, but could be wrong on that last part.

Also anyone who turnover an almost 9k majority if it happened would have to take notice or is likely to get tossed out at the next election.

Early days, but I've been reasonably impressed with Little as well El Zorro .

[iceman]

I think they are desperate and worried because reform of the RMA has been a major policy plank and a lot of work has gone into it by Nick Smith. NZ needs it so it would be a real shame if it doesn't happen !


FP
I am struggling to understand why National are so desperate. They will still have a functioning majority until the next election. They may have to compromise on proposed RMA changes, so what?? I am not aware of any other proposals that ACT and the Maori Party would not support.

[elZorro]

I think they are desperate and worried because reform of the RMA has been a major policy plank and a lot of work has gone into it by Nick Smith. NZ needs it so it would be a real shame if it doesn't happen !

According to the opposition commentators in this article, the government could have been doing lots, under the current rules, but have chosen not to. Their attitude has been to let the market forces do their thing, by and large. Not always a good thing.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/65275566/National-pushes-on-with-Resource-Management-Act-reform

Those books behind Nick Smith, are generated by teams of planners in each local body, and produced over decades. They don't all apply together in the one location. Yes, maybe some changes in philosophy are needed, steadily. That's probably happening already. What the opposition don't want to see, are changes promoted as being in the public good, which are actually more in developer's interests. I know of one person who was preparing to spend $100k in court to overturn a local body decision about a smallish property development. He could presumably afford to spend that because of the profits that would accrue if the development was allowed. These types of decisions are no different to any business risks that owners take on. It's a bit of a shame this money is being spent in courts over property ideas, when that same cash could start up a new business that has the potential to employ many people.

So I say leave the RMA as it is, or we'll see even less investment in the productive economy.

[iceman]

That is simply mad EZ. The RMA is crazy as it stands. An example is an organisation here in the Nelson area that spent $6.5k on a permit to build a bicycle stand worth $2k for its staff, outside their office. Surely even you could support some serious changes to this stupid act !



So I say leave the RMA as it is, or we'll see even less investment in the productive economy.

[elZorro]

That is simply mad EZ. The RMA is crazy as it stands. An example is an organisation here in the Nelson area that spent $6.5k on a permit to build a bicycle stand worth $2k for its staff, outside their office. Surely even you could support some serious changes to this stupid act !

If the firm is big enough for a $2000 bike rack, their wages bill would dwarf the permit costs, each week. The local council has had some chargeable work for their team of planners, maybe just one of them. The rest went into their coffers to defray rates for landowners. I can imagine the council were interested in what new traffic hazards might be created, if any carparks were being used up that were still needed around the building, visual disturbance, etc. I haven't had any expenses of this nature for a long time, and not all councils act in the same way. Nelson is a very tidy urban/tourist area generally, and I guess there would have been some good reason(s) for them not to rubberstamp a bike rack.

[Daytr]

I would suggest the RMA does need a lot of reform, however the fear a lot of people have, is that due to National's previous form, such as their disastrous changes to DOC that they are now reversing, in many cases that the changes implemented will mean development at all cost & stuff the consequences.
So some people would rather see no change than an extreme change that a lot of people expect National to try & implement. So in the end nobody wins.
What I would really like to see some over arching nation wide policy on urban development & land use. To stop urban sprawl & have plans around urban growth & infrastructure & make it far more concentrated & centralized within say Auckland as an example. Also land use, in regards protecting some of NZs best productive land like the Bombay Hills from being turned into suburbia. Some farming land should be restricted on type of use where its apparent its unsustainable particularly around water. I am sure red tape could be trimmed back in some cases without compromising the process, however most opponents think National will do just that. Compromise the process by allowing developers the ability to plough ahead with little restriction or opportunity to object.

[Major von Tempsky]

I've just realized why Daytr (bet he's never done any daytrading in his life) has suddenly become so active on the Elections thread. It's so EZ doesn't have the embarrassment again of having 5 consecutive postings unbroken by any other poster (and possibly all 5 postings unread). Now EZ and Daytr can alternate cozily. One question arises (and some previous posters have been banned because of this, Young Jamie comes to mind as one example) - are EZ and Daytr the same person?

Even if they're not they are both wildly unrepresentative of the average user of the Sharetrader comments Boards.....(see Poll results on this thread just before the last General Election :-) )

[Daytr]

MVT, what world do you live in? One perhaps you think you really are your persona?
The reason why I have become active on this thread is because I live Northland, you know the place where the by-election is actually happening & relevant. For your reference seeing you didn't even realize Northland had a port, Whangarei isn't part of the by-election, just a side note for those who are unaware.

As I traded international commodity, FX & interest rate markets professionally for over 15 years for banks & was a global expert on gold, oil & other commodity markets advising multinational companies all around the world, I think your assumption may just a wee bit off about who or what I am or have been.

Stick to your knitting son, you are just embarrassing yourself.

[westerly]

I've just realized why Daytr (bet he's never done any daytrading in his life) has suddenly become so active on the Elections thread. It's so EZ doesn't have the embarrassment again of having 5 consecutive postings unbroken by any other poster (and possibly all 5 postings unread). Now EZ and Daytr can alternate cozily. One question arises (and some previous posters have been banned because of this, Young Jamie comes to mind as one example) - are EZ and Daytr the same person?

Even if they're not they are both wildly unrepresentative of the average user of the Sharetrader comments Boards.....(see Poll results on this thread just before the last General Election :-) )

I can just imagine a Tom Scott cartoon of the Major sitting in a leather chair at his club ,glass of port in hand spluttering over those left leaning troublemakers interfering with his right to push his own viewpoint without opposition.
The majority of contributors appear to be somewhere to the right of centre and generally reply to the postings of a few contributors who appear to upset the fiery old Major. Without them you would have nothing to get upset over or write about.

westerly

[elZorro]

I've just realized why Daytr (bet he's never done any daytrading in his life) has suddenly become so active on the Elections thread. It's so EZ doesn't have the embarrassment again of having 5 consecutive postings unbroken by any other poster (and possibly all 5 postings unread). Now EZ and Daytr can alternate cozily. One question arises (and some previous posters have been banned because of this, Young Jamie comes to mind as one example) - are EZ and Daytr the same person?

Even if they're not they are both wildly unrepresentative of the average user of the Sharetrader comments Boards.....(see Poll results on this thread just before the last General Election :-) )

How very perceptive of you MVT, however I've only visited Northland once or twice, so you'll find I know a bit more about the Waikato, if anything. The fact that Daytr, Westerly, Sgt Pepper, Winner69 and myself sometimes agree with each other, doesn't mean we are nutters, the same person, or are even incorrect. It's up to you guys to prove we're wrong to hold our opinions.


p.s. (Usually) good luck with that.

[Daytr]

I just like the way he tries to marginalize people, like you aren't one of us etc.
Need to feel like he belongs I suspect.
I for one am glad I'm not if that's what 'they' are like, whoever 'they' are ! haha

[iceman]

Just watched Winston and Mark Osborne on Q&A. Winston, the best opposition politician in NZ, made all sorts of silly promises like a fast train between Auckland and Northland and a suggestion on a fixed dollar value. I can not understand people that vote for him !

[elZorro]

Just watched Winston and Mark Osborne on Q&A. Winston, the best opposition politician in NZ, made all sorts of silly promises like a fast train between Auckland and Northland and a suggestion on a fixed dollar value. I can not understand people that vote for him !

Yes, but Mark Osborne had a nervous voice for such a big guy, and on the other side of the camera up north was Steven Joyce, coaching the hapless newbie. A little birdie told me last night that National is privately conceding the election already, amongst its party faithful.

[Major von Tempsky]

Hey, it's time for a posting for Daytr, just after EZ, so I'll jump in.

If you think the bye-election campaign has descended into madness, you are probably right and people in the privacy of the voting booth will reflect more seriously.

Fixed exchange rate? Ha! Ha! Ha! Not even Labour will resort to that! The NZ dollar, believe it or not, is the tenth most traded currency internationally. Where would he get the hundreds of billions of dollars needed to defend his assessment of the value of the NZ dollar (which internationally with Winston in power would be very hard to sustain). A high speed train to Whangarei? Who for?, the population of Northland is not nearly sufficient to justify that or even a railway to the port against very flexible diesel engined multi-wheeled multi trailer trucks.

Put a chokehold on immigration and stop NZ's economic growth?
He's a raving nutter, smokes and turns 70 this year. Is Winston the face of future? You'd have to be a moron!

[elZorro]

Hey, it's time for a posting for Daytr, just after EZ, so I'll jump in.

If you think the bye-election campaign has descended into madness, you are probably right and people in the privacy of the voting booth will reflect more seriously.

Fixed exchange rate? Ha! Ha! Ha! Not even Labour will resort to that! The NZ dollar, believe it or not, is the tenth most traded currency internationally. Where would he get the hundreds of billions of dollars needed to defend his assessment of the value of the NZ dollar (which internationally with Winston in power would be very hard to sustain). A high speed train to Whangarei? Who for?, the population of Northland is not nearly sufficient to justify that or even a railway to the port against very flexible diesel engined multi-wheeled multi trailer trucks.

Put a chokehold on immigration and stop NZ's economic growth?
He's a raving nutter, smokes and turns 70 this year. Is Winston the face of future? You'd have to be a moron!

Tell you what MVT, Winston will probably have a great 70th birthday party with his extended family, later next month. The backdrop will be him having just handed National a record defeat up north. Not too shabby at all.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11416930

And John a week later..

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11420790

[Daytr]

I don't agree with all of Winston's ideas & I'm sure some of them are just attention grabbers.
But he's going to be hell of a lot better than what we have had until now in Northland which amounts to neglect.
It just shows how bad National have got that despite some hair brained policy & a lot that is good as well to be fair people by the thousands will vote for him. I will freely admit many are voting against National rather than voting for NZF. I would suggest that's a bigger statement to John Key than anything else.

I do love the way MVT you love speaking for others & I mean fictional others. The 'we' & that people may vote differently to what they say publicly etc. Vivid imagination there. You should right a novel, or perhaps you have already started here. One of Winston's other policies is to increase the use of rail for freight, an idea that has a lot of validity & it will connect with that port you didn't think existed !

Anyone seen any polls of late?

[elZorro]

I don't agree with all of Winston's ideas & I'm sure some of them are just attention grabbers.
But he's going to be hell of a lot better than what we have had until now in Northland which amounts to neglect.
It just shows how bad National have got that despite some hair brained policy & a lot that is good as well to be fair people by the thousands will vote for him. I will freely admit many are voting against National rather than voting for NZF. I would suggest that's a bigger statement to John Key than anything else.

I do love the way MVT you love speaking for others & I mean fictional others. The 'we' & that people may vote differently to what they say publicly etc. Vivid imagination there. You should right a novel, or perhaps you have already started here. One of Winston's other policies is to increase the use of rail for freight, an idea that has a lot of validity & it will connect with that port you didn't think existed !

Anyone seen any polls of late?

No, Daytr, seems like the parties are polling using their phone calling. It'll be interesting to see if National do a Labour-style method of getting out the voters. But although it sounds impressive, not many people seem to use the vans and cars that are laid on. It's a lot of hassle, for not many votes.

Here's a centre-right columnist with his views. Even then, he's still saying it'll be close.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/manawatu-standard/opinion/67437784/Liam-Hehir-Predicting-the-Northland-by-election-too-hard

I'm keeping a wary eye on ipredict, and National hasn't been able to post more than about a 30% chance of winning, for days now. If there really are lots of National people who think that they've got the by-election in the bag, they don't seem to be betting on it that conclusively.

[Daytr]

Yeah there are a lot of people commenting on social media re getting calls every night from national party supporters asking who they are voting for. Many obviously getting annoyed by it particularly as most of the calls have come from someone sitting In Auckland. Never going to go down well with a Northlander. Funny not seen one complaint about NZF or Labour, so not sure if they aren't doing the same or that people don't mind. I don't have a landline thank goodness. Re cars they are on offer, but I think both Labour & National have offered them in the past, not sure about NZF.
The only polls I listen to are independent media polls. Seems like its still neck & neck.

[Daytr]

I just had a chance to watch Q&A and he doesn't suggest fixing the currency, he said setting it more favorably for exporters which could mean a whole host of things. I'm not saying that's necessarily a good idea either, but don't misrepresent what he said.
Yes and referring to a fast train, not high sped rail as you seemed to be implying.
I noticed Osbourne didn't rule it out either. And $1.75Bln I think we are getting an extra 30kms of motorway which very few here in Northland care about, especially at that cost. I wonder what that rail option would cost? We have Air NZ cut flights up here, so perhaps rail is worth investigating, obviously dependent on cost. Beauty of rail vs flying is it could get you right into Auckland CBD and could be a major commuting option for people living on the shore as well into the city & take stress off the bridge which they been trying to do for years. Roads like most of Nat policy is so 20th century. Most other countries in the world are investing heavily in rail options.

I know I'm biased but I thought Peters won it hands down.
Osbourne looked like an over wrought school boy who had just been denied his pudding, he did so much whining.
Did you see the side glances as Osbourne was taking instructions? Haha.
Actually for a 1st timer, credit where credit is due, he does quite well with his public speaking generally.
Its really not Osbourne that's the problem, other than no one seemed to have heard of him, its his party & those that are supposedly helping him.

[Daytr]

Last one for the night, a couple of Nat MPs asked the same question twice about where was Winston Peters. Apparently its a real no no to ask that question of other MPs no matter what side of the fence. (but when have John Key's Nats respected anything?) Anyway if I had been me receiving the question, I would have responded with, where is Mike Sabin ?

[iceman]

Hi EZ,
I think you have to be fair and feel for Mark Osborne being thrown in against the best opposition politicia NZ has. I think it was quite sad how the Labour guy on the program attacked Osborne for his physical appearance. But of course Labour doesn't really count any more with Winston First taking over as Leader of the Opposition !


Yes, but Mark Osborne had a nervous voice for such a big guy, and on the other side of the camera up north was Steven Joyce, coaching the hapless newbie. A little birdie told me last night that National is privately conceding the election already, amongst its party faithful.

[iceman]

DYTR,
you know what Winston First said was a suggestion he could somehow interfere with the currency. Dumb. He is a nutter but people like this sort of rubbish and I think he will win. A perfect example of a useless politician !

I don't agree with all of Winston's ideas & I'm sure some of them are just attention grabbers.
But he's going to be hell of a lot better than what we have had until now in Northland which amounts to neglect.
It just shows how bad National have got that despite some hair brained policy & a lot that is good as well to be fair people by the thousands will vote for him. I will freely admit many are voting against National rather than voting for NZF. I would suggest that's a bigger statement to John Key than anything else.

I do love the way MVT you love speaking for others & I mean fictional others. The 'we' & that people may vote differently to what they say publicly etc. Vivid imagination there. You should right a novel, or perhaps you have already started here. One of Winston's other policies is to increase the use of rail for freight, an idea that has a lot of validity & it will connect with that port you didn't think existed !

Anyone seen any polls of late?

[Major von Tempsky]

"Tell you what MVT, Winston will probably have a great 70th birthday party with his extended family, later next month. The backdrop will be him having just handed National a record defeat up north. Not too shabby at all. "

Minus his ex-wife of course, mother of his children and grandchildren, (and probably a number of them will stay away in support of her) after a certain well publicized togetherness in a Wellington taxi cab with a Parliamentary secretary some years ago....

It will be quite a small event....and only chain smokers and heavy drinkers welcome....

[Daytr]

Never afraid to get personal eh MVT, says far more about you than anyone else. Imagination still on overdrive as well. How do you know what goes on in someone else's marriage or private life? Keep your grubby little fantasies to yourself.
ICEMAN, I didn't see what you are referring to & yes agree below the belt if you will pardon the pun.
National though have run for the most part a negative campaign & to be fair most of it not coming directly from Osborne or Joyce but either who they wheel out from WGTN or young Nats etc, so its a little hypocritical to pull out one instance, I can name probably 5-10 that have been repeated over & over.
Re the ccy thing, it will never happen so I'm not worried about it.
Useless, we know what useless is, we have had it for 40 years. Super Winnie will be far from useless.
Look at Tauranga its thriving & sure there are a lot of actors for that & he is certainly one of them.

[Daytr]

Speaking of nutters, looks like Nats state asset sales of social housing is in tatters after the Salvation Army rejected the government's offer.
From day one the Salvo's were pushing back on what was being proposed. What were the Nats thinking, continually promoting the policy using Salvo's as their banner partner, when they had never bought in! But according to the Nats. there program is on track!
They are delusional. Now they are looking at Maori, I think they tried that 150 years ago, for blankets & muskets.

[elZorro]

Speaking of nutters, looks like Nats state asset sales of social housing is in tatters after the Salvation Army rejected the government's offer.
From day one the Salvo's were pushing back on what was being proposed. What were the Nats thinking, continually promoting the policy using Salvo's as their banner partner, when they had never bought in! But according to the Nats. there program is on track!
They are delusional. Now they are looking at Maori, I think they tried that 150 years ago, for blankets & muskets.

This is not a problem for the Nats, they will now be able to sell a few state houses each at a bargain price to anyone who says they're behind the idea of social housing. Many landlords of course, fit the bill, don't they? While the State might have been slow at repainting and doing up the houses and flats, they do have dedicated teams doing it, all around the country. And they are very quick to pick up on slow rent-payers, so that things don't get out of hand. No worries, all this can be done equally as well by the market, efforts will still be made to keep rents affordable, and tardy renters won't be pushed out into cars and garages. :(

Bryce Edwards has a collection of by-election cartoons. All very good.

Older comment from Tim Watkin.
(http://pundit.co.nz/content/how-national-is-gift-wrapping-northland-for-winston)


http://liberation.typepad.com/liberation/2015/03/cartoons-about-the-northland-by-election.html

[Sgt Pepper]

"Tell you what MVT, Winston will probably have a great 70th birthday party with his extended family, later next month. The backdrop will be him having just handed National a record defeat up north. Not too shabby at all. "

Minus his ex-wife of course, mother of his children and grandchildren, (and probably a number of them will stay away in support of her) after a certain well publicized togetherness in a Wellington taxi cab with a Parliamentary secretary some years ago....

It will be quite a small event....and only chain smokers and heavy drinkers welcome....


"Earlier on Q+A Prime Minister John Key said that Mr Peters doesn’t have any chance of winning the Northland by-election"


I have put the Sav in the fridge for the celebratory glass late on Saturday. Poor old John, all he has got to look forward to is a large helping of humble pie

[elZorro]

"Earlier on Q+A Prime Minister John Key said that Mr Peters doesn’t have any chance of winning the Northland by-election"


I have put the Sav in the fridge for the celebratory glass late on Saturday. Poor old John, all he has got to look forward to is a large helping of humble pie

I will raise a glass too, Sgt Pepper, if the voting goes the way I think it will. TV3 video yesterday. (http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/northland-by-election-one-for-the-history-books-2015032310)


Colin James's Otago Daily Times column for 24 March 2015

A by-election can have some meanings

Some of the most thoughtful political writing these days is coming from -- Peter Dunne.

Dunne, who leads, and is, United Future in Parliament, has been sounding more like he did in 1994, when debating breaking with Labour. He then aimed to be a centre force in politics, perhaps even a power-broking Prime Minister between Labour and National in the impending MMP politics of coalition. He wanted to do that from a middling-liberal perspective.

Multiple mergers, separations and erosions later, United Future is down to 0.2 per cent and Dunne's Ohariu seat is a limp overhang. But Dunne had, when dumped for a time as minister in 2013, started putting down thoughts in a weekly "Dunne speaks" email. He has explored a wide range of topics, both of the day and deeper, usually in a rational, liberal tone, mostly nearer National than Labour but, recently, more often nearer Labour than National.

In January he lamented prejudice, instancing "repressive" Saudi Arabia. Last week he argued the need to address the "issue of medicinal cannabis ... in the light of new and emerging evidence ... against the three pillars of compassion, proportion and innovation".

Recently he has fundamentally differed with John Key's National party on going to war in Iraq and on changing the consent criteria under the Resource Management Act (RMA).

Dunne's differences on major issues are one reason National panicked over the Northland by-election earlier this month, especially because since 2011 Te Ururoa Flavell, now Maori party leader, has sounded far more Labour than National and so does his new coattail list MP, Maarama Fox. They, too, oppose the Iraq war and the RMA criteria rewrite.

On the official interpretation of the law, if Winston Peters were to win the Northland seat, National's seat tally would drop from 60 to 59 and ACT's David Seymour would no longer by himself deliver an automatic majority for deregulatory measures. If Peters resigned as a list MP, New Zealand First would go from 11 to 12.

So some of National's programme would stall or need renegotiation.

In the past some in National have mooted a legal challenge in such circumstances. A rationale could be that MMP distributes seats by the party vote and an electorate vote in one seat on local sentiment should not override the nation's decision last September. A counter-argument could be that the people of Northland feel neglected by governments and parties and might validly try to secure some leverage. Moreover, MMP allows parties to keep all electorate seats they win, whatever the party vote.

Of course, this is all speculative. Northland has been a very safe seat -- 9300-vote majority in 2014 -- with no recent history of maverick voting, as, for example, Social Credit leader Bruce Beetham's strong second in 1975 in safe Rangitikei before filching it off National in a 1978 by-election.

But the Northland region has had a maverick past, even electing a one-term Social Credit MP in 1966. That indicated some estrangement from the political establishment. It is poor and stressed. Populist Peters thrives on stressed, estranged voters.

And longtime far north MP John Carter used to say he owed much of his majority to Maori who chose not to be on the Maori roll. Peters can (sort-of) play a Maori card.

Two polls early this month suggested substance to Peters' claim he can win. National panicked, promising bridges and then much more and parking a campaign team there.

That broke a cardinal rule of warfare and politics: if you panic, don't communicate it. The smell of panic emboldens the enemy and, in this case, wavering voters.

If Peters were to win, he would gain influence when Dunne and Flavell demur. If he loses, he will remain the 70-year-old spare wheel voters chose him to be last September. Part of Peters' predicament is arranging a creditable exit (perhaps now with help from Labour renegade Shane Jones) which he might have achieved had Key needed him for a majority last September.

Whatever happens, Labour is the loser. Andrew Little made that inevitable by in effect telling Labour voters to back Peters.
A distant third will not look good, even in a by-election in a safe National seat Labour could never win.

But it probably won't much affect Labour's trajectory. This is very early in the electoral cycle and other factors (as noted here last week) will be far more important. And the party will owe a decent 2017 list place to its junked candidate, Willow-Jean Prime. Her political future has brightened.

That is more than you can say for National. Whatever the by-election result, Peters has highlighted the marginality of its 2014 win and its limited range of reliable future support.

And it is more than you can say for Dunne. He might be there in 2018, perhaps even continuing to swap sides, as middling liberals can: Labour-National-Labour-National so far. But he might not.

Still, Dunne has shown he can do intelligent, readable commentary. That is a rarity among MPs.


Colin James, Synapsis Ltd, 04-384 7030, 021-438 434, P O Box 9494, Marion Square, Wellington 6141,
ColinJames@synapsis.co.nz (wlmailhtml:{859F7BC3-BC06-49EC-89C0-293E8B5037B7}mid://00000018/!x-usc:mailto:ColinJames@synapsis.co.nz), website www.ColinJames.co.nz (wlmailhtml:{859F7BC3-BC06-49EC-89C0-293E8B5037B7}mid://00000018/!x-usc:http://www.colinjames.co.nz/)

[Daytr]

Thanks El Zorro interesting read.
Its all getting a bit nasty on social media up here.
Looks like the Nats are getting more than desperate.
Bad losers already? :cool:

[elZorro]

Thanks El Zorro interesting read.
Its all getting a bit nasty on social media up here.
Looks like the Nats are getting more than desperate.
Bad losers already? :cool:

We'll have to wait and see, Daytr. Found this cartoon while looking for another one. Note the desolate landscape here. Slater piggybacking on Key. Brilliant.

[iceman]

Had a friend around for dinner last night, who is definitely not a National supporter. He goes regularly to Northland to work on the Te Ahu community centre and other community related facilities He speaks highly of Mark Osborne and said people in the Far North are very proud of the community centre. His view on this latest media bash-up of Mark Osborne is that it will backfire on Winston !

[elZorro]

Had a friend around for dinner last night, who is definitely not a National supporter. He goes regularly to Northland to work on the Te Ahu community centre and other community related facilities He speaks highly of Mark Osborne and said people in the Far North are very proud of the community centre. His view on this latest media bash-up of Mark Osborne is that it will backfire on Winston !

I don't think it's Winston doing this, it's the council?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11422431

[craic]

Ah Well! After Saturday I should have a bit more in my Punting fund. I might even see Winnie at the races - if he can still afford to go after his defeat by 2,500 votes (my estimation) If there's a horse called "Wishful thinking" or similar, all you lefties and anti-righties should back it. I only made $25 on my last saturday"s bets and I blew that on a Dennis Marsh show which was a fizzer. So three more loads of wood to deliver this week to restore normality to my affairs.

[iceman]

Winston is the one who brought this mischievously into the media spotlight. The media has jumped on it without apparently doing they're homework on it !! I've heard many Northlanders are pi..ed off about it.


I don't think it's Winston doing this, it's the council?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11422431

[BlackPeter]

I give to you that this by-election has some entertainment value, but otherwise it is a really sad game to watch.

I guess in a way it shapes up similar (just smaller) to the last national election. We have a quite unconvincing and (politically) weak candidate on the right opposed by a very colourful political con man on the - actually not sure, on whose side is Winston, actually? Different con man, though - and this time it is one with more experience and less ideological baggage.

I guess the election might give people the opportunity to let up steam, but has anybody considered which of the candidates (if any) would be good for the electorate? Obviously - a continuation of Nationals reign would deliver more of the same, and if Northland is not happy with that (as it sounds, they are), than they just have Winston. But what exactly would Winston do better after the election?

Remember the choice we had last year - an unconvincing team on the right against a coalition of irresponsible con men (and women) on the left?

Are there really that little good people left in New Zealand politics?

[Daytr]

Iceman, I agree it does seem to be being blown out of proportion in regards an investigation. However this is an asset that Mark Osbourne was chairman of as asset manager & its been bleeding money in quite substantial amounts, so its definitely fair political game , after Osbourne has claimed & promoting himself to be a business man, which he's not & that he's an astute asset manager. The news was actually originally broken by Radio NZ I believe, not the NZF campaign. I have nothing against Osbourne other than he is prone to exaggeration to beef up his profile. He has claimed a lot of quite incredible local community feats in my home town, but no one had heard of him. And then there are the 10 bridges, which everyone I know up here think is such a BS policy when so much more needs doing as a priority for our roads, such as flood proofing, making them safe & built to a much better standard in the first place.
They had all three candidates on National Radio again this morning & again Osbourne sounded like a whining child who hadn't got his fair share.
Either way its going to be close & I can't call it.
Key is visiting in the next day or two after cutting short his trip to Japan, so expect some massive lolly scramble at the last minute.
Lets hope as that will really backfire!

[Daytr]

BlackPeter, why do you have to be on a side? That mode is so outdated & prevents good policy and ambition being implemented. Both sides of politics have good things to offer. Peters is a centrist and he may not be perfect, but he is NZs longest standing MP by some margin & that's some mean feat in itself. He stands up for things, whether you or like them or not, but that's not how I describe a conman. He's a canny politician I give you that, but he's not a liar as we have leading this government right now. John Key has no integrity, lied over our troops in Iraq, lied over the GCSB mass surveillance of all NZ citizens communications & its neighbours. Has abused his power & used the GCSB on multiple occasions as his own personal security & intelligence service in matters that have nothing to do with national security. Now he wants to sell social housing to private property developers after the Salvos their banner partner embarrassed them. Lastly they got this country into hock, graph to follow. Its shocking.

[iceman]

I really have not bee following this campaign in much detail Daytr but it will be interesting to see the result. I was of the understanding that Osbourne was a Manager at the community centre, not the Chairman.


Iceman, I agree it does seem to be being blown out of proportion in regards an investigation. However this is an asset that Mark Osbourne was chairman of as asset manager & its been bleeding money in quite substantial amounts, so its definitely fair political game , after Osbourne has claimed & promoting himself to be a business man, which he's not & that he's an astute asset manager. The news was actually originally broken by Radio NZ I believe, not the NZF campaign. I have nothing against Osbourne other than he is prone to exaggeration to beef up his profile. He has claimed a lot of quite incredible local community feats in my home town, but no one had heard of him. And then there are the 10 bridges, which everyone I know up here think is such a BS policy when so much more needs doing as a priority for our roads, such as flood proofing, making them safe & built to a much better standard in the first place.
They had all three candidates on National Radio again this morning & again Osbourne sounded like a whining child who hadn't got his fair share.
Either way its going to be close & I can't call it.
Key is visiting in the next day or two after cutting short his trip to Japan, so expect some massive lolly scramble at the last minute.
Lets hope as that will really backfire!

[Daytr]

Below is a graph of NZ government foreign debt over the last 20 years. Since John Key took power NZ government foreign debt has exploded higher from around $20Bln to around $50Bln. This figure excludes domestic government debt, which I think is around another $10Bln and also excludes the billions they made from asset sales. Net of asset sales you are talking of a figure around $40Bln increase! Of which around $10Bln has gone into CHC recovery, so no one is criticizing that. But what has happened to the other $30Bln? Where has it gone? This government claims to be great fiscal managers, they are nothing like it & getting this country into hock at an unprecedented rate. And this is after a dairy export boom like this country has never seen before & cutting budgets to things like DOC & disabled funding. We now face an economy that will weaken due to lower export prices, we are yet to feel this, however we have accrued debt of higher asset prices & that becomes a lot harder to service of lower asset prices. The GST take is about to take a massive hit as farmers stop spending. This is going to get ugly.
https://fbexternal-a.akamaihd.net/safe_image.php?d=AQDDY2CKkDfnsEBl&w=470&h=352&url=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia% 2Fcommons%2Fthumb%2F5%2F58%2FNZ_Govt_debt_1990-2011.svg%2F578px-NZ_Govt_debt_1990-2011.svg.png

[Daytr]

Sorry Iceman, you are quite correct he was general manager of the center that is now under a governance review.

[BlackPeter]

BlackPeter, why do you have to be on a side? That mode is so outdated & prevents good policy and ambition being implemented. Both sides of politics have good things to offer. Peters is a centrist and he may not be perfect, but he is NZs longest standing MP by some margin & that's some mean feat in itself. He stands up for things, whether you or like them or not, but that's not how I describe a conman. He's a canny politician I give you that, but he's not a liar as we have leading this government right now. John Key has no integrity, lied over our troops in Iraq, lied over the GCSB mass surveillance of all NZ citizens communications & its neighbours. Has abused his power & used the GCSB on multiple occasions as his own personal security & intelligence service in matters that have nothing to do with national security. Now he wants to sell social housing to private property developers after the Salvos their banner partner embarrassed them. Lastly they got this country into hock, graph to follow. Its shocking.

I agree that the left / right view on the political spectrum might be outdated, maybe you should tell this your friends on the so called green and "progressive back into the past", than we could move on.

I certainly wouldn't hold it against Winston if he would be a man of the centre, but I hold it against him that he changes his principles according to political convenience. I hold it against him that he pulls the race card basically every election just to get these extra votes from white and brown racists, and I hold it against him that he tends to change his principles according to political convenience (remember the boobles of power?).

But hey - who am I to comment on the potentially (likely?) future member of the North? Member anyway. If Winston is the man of your political dreams, than I am sure you know where to place your tick. I do sincerely hope that you get in this election the member you want and deserve.

Re - John Key - I hear what you are saying and understand where you are coming from. Pity, you can't vote for both, given that much beauty on all sides - isn't it?

[BlackPeter]

Below is a graph of NZ government foreign debt over the last 20 years. Since John Key took power NZ government foreign debt has exploded higher from around $20Bln to around $50Bln. This figure excludes domestic government debt, which I think is around another $10Bln and also excludes the billions they made from asset sales. Net of asset sales you are talking of a figure around $40Bln increase! Of which around $10Bln has gone into CHC recovery, so no one is criticizing that. But what has happened to the other $30Bln? Where has it gone? This government claims to be great fiscal managers, they are nothing like it & getting this country into hock at an unprecedented rate. And this is after a dairy export boom like this country has never seen before & cutting budgets to things like DOC & disabled funding. We now face an economy that will weaken due to lower export prices, we are yet to feel this, however we have accrued debt of higher asset prices & that becomes a lot harder to service of lower asset prices. The GST take is about to take a massive hit as farmers stop spending. This is going to get ugly.
https://fbexternal-a.akamaihd.net/safe_image.php?d=AQDDY2CKkDfnsEBl&w=470&h=352&url=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia% 2Fcommons%2Fthumb%2F5%2F58%2FNZ_Govt_debt_1990-2011.svg%2F578px-NZ_Govt_debt_1990-2011.svg.png

LOL - didn't you conveniently forget to mention the reason for the increased debt levels? Not saying that they did a particular good job, but still propose you compare the NZ debt "blow out" with what happened in basically every other country in this world during that time. US; UK, Greece, Spain, Argentina, Russia, Ireland, Iceland, ... You might find that, relative to nearly everybody else, the NZ government of the day did a quite good job in confining their debts.

Hey Daytr - maybe you should consider giving these green / pink glasses back to EZ (or Belg ...) Hard to see the reality when wearing them.

[Daytr]

Mate I work in financial markets & the government debt explosion has nothing do with the reasons you gave.
Are you really saying that the government bailed out banks & finance companies to the tune of $40Bln!
Maybe 1 40th of that, perhaps & I'm being generous. Where did the other $39Bln go!
Those other countries were already in debt up to their eyeballs & then they had to bail out their banks & local governments etc.
None of that happened here.
They aren't pink glasses, they are eyes without wool pulled over them.
The Government had very little to do with guiding NZ through the GFC & same goes for Australia. The main thing they did do was guarantee government deposits. The main reason why the NZ economy has done ok, is China, which kept the world economy on life support & obviously bought a hell of a lot of product from NZ & still is. You know China who isn't part of the TPPA, NZs biggest trade partner & not part of a massive 'trade agreement' in fact is set out to marginalize China's position in the world.
And they haven't steered us through that have got us in hock and its been growing every year.

Re Winston you mention principles twice, but don't actually mention any that he has supposed to have broken?
I never said he's perfect, in fact I agree in regards some of the points you made, but it just shows how badly we need change in Northland.
Boobles of power, I have no idea, probably when I was overseas. But did come up under google either. Significant?

[BlackPeter]

Mate I work in financial markets & the government debt explosion has nothing do with the reasons you gave.


Actually - I didn't give any reasons, but I am satisfied that you discovered some of them by yourself (even if you than try to contradict them). Maybe add as well some other pittances like the Christchurch earthquake, a completely run down ACC scheme, ...



Boobles of power, I have no idea, probably when I was overseas. But did come up under google either. Significant?

O.K. - mea culpa, haven't seen this word printed often enough to correctly spell it. Try googling "baubles of power" or "baubles of office".

[Daytr]

Nope I would rather hear you reasons for the additional $40Bln & ACC has nothing to do with it.
Since National has turned into a hedge fund it's made billions, but they still keep borrowing.
The fact is they running up a huge debt with no plan of how it will ever be paid back.
Tax receipts about to plummet, its going to be a friggin disaster.
Key is doing to NZ what Goldman Sachs & the like did to the US & European economies.
Selling them down the river.
The NZ government has less assets & a lot more debt... hmmm not sure where & what you studied but economics 101 says that ain't a great recipe .

[elZorro]

I missed the TV3 news, Daytr, but there has been a new Reid Research poll out today. Winston is well ahead. This is going to be a great triumph for democracy in NZ. Hoorah!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11422947

ipredict bets for National's chances are collapsing.

Not sure if the image is a spoof or not.

Another press story.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/67506389/peters-ahead-in-northland-byelection--poll

[Daytr]

Not counting any chickens El Zorro, but quietly hoping to attend a party to celebrate a win for Winnie at some stage.

[elZorro]

Not counting any chickens El Zorro, but quietly hoping to attend a party to celebrate a win for Winnie at some stage.

Your chances must be high Daytr, as a sample of 500 gives some error, but not 20% surely. Once the voters hear this poll result, they'll only continue the trend. You might see some more support bleed from Labour to help the result.

I have some more graphs for you, if you are amazed by the debt rung up by National. It's quite easy to run an entire country if you just borrow billions. You can help that trend along if you reduce the tax take from the top end. Then you clobber manufacturing and other areas by mismanagement and watch the tax base erode further. Mike Moreu seems to be a left-wing cartoonist, he's very good. Here's one from late last year.

[Daytr]

Yeah I think it will be closer than that, but yep the endorsement from Labour should widen the margin.
Love the cartoon!

[elZorro]

Yeah I think it will be closer than that, but yep the endorsement from Labour should widen the margin.
Love the cartoon!

This is the cartoon I was looking for. Same artist, 24 March.

News item from up North. Maybe it was an omen.

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/man-rescued-after-swimming-away-sunken-yacht-6223691

More comment on the by-election this morning.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/politics/67508081/Peters-poised-for-Northland-win

Even Tracy "National" Watkins had to write this article last night. Must have been tough.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/politics/67507922/Winston-Peters-on-the-brink-of-winning-Northland-by-election

[BlackPeter]

Nope I would rather hear you reasons for the additional $40Bln & ACC has nothing to do with it.
Since National has turned into a hedge fund it's made billions, but they still keep borrowing.
The fact is they running up a huge debt with no plan of how it will ever be paid back.
Tax receipts about to plummet, its going to be a friggin disaster.
Key is doing to NZ what Goldman Sachs & the like did to the US & European economies.
Selling them down the river.
The NZ government has less assets & a lot more debt... hmmm not sure where & what you studied but economics 101 says that ain't a great recipe .

look Daytr, I am not sure whether I still should give you the benefit of the doubt. You either must have been very far away from NZ or you must be quite thoroughly ideologically blind-folded.

So where are the increased debt after the GFC coming from? Lets start with the first decade of this century. We used to have a left wing government in NZ which had to increase every three years the bribes to get voters electing them again. Interest free student loan (during studies), working for families, reducing the student loan interest after the studies, you name it - they gave it away and we all are paying for it for the rest of our natural life (well, as long as we live in NZ). Thanks, Helen.

OK - you might say that state debts kept under Helens reign still under control, but this was just thanks to a booming pre GFC economy (not Helens responsibility) and due to some of her bribes only getting really dear after some years (when the accrued interest come into play - remember these Economics 101 lessons, if you ever took them?).

So - GFC came, all the commitments have been made but the tax take broke in. Increasing expenses and dropping income = bad (economics 101). For the new National government it would have been political suicide to take all the lollies away from the by than well-fare dependant masses, and actually, you don't really do things like that when the economy is (post GFC) at the brink of collapse (like all over the world). So they kept paying without the income to fund it - this is a huge contributor to the current state debts - and hey, everybody who was at that time in NZ knows about that. Funny thing - neither Cunliffe nor Little nor Shearer nor Goff nor any other of these enlightened short term Labour leaders ever complained about the way how National dealt with the post GFC. Cunliffe even congratulated Key (prior to the last election) to the way the kept the country going after the GFC.

So here you have it - the majority of the national debt are accrued Labour election bribes - difficult now to take from a mob which is addicted to state support. The other bit are direct and indirect cost of the Christchurch Earthquake. Funny that you haven't heard about that either? Communication in Australia can't be very good, but yep, I remember - they don't care about Kiwis anyway.

And whinging about the bad state of our finances - well, I don't know what your area of expertise is, but you will hardly find any serious economist who would be concerned about the NZ Finances ... compared to the financial situation in the rest of the world.