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winner69
29-06-2015, 08:02 PM
EZ, with all this bad economic news you must be getting excited - increases the odds of National losing doesn't it

Wonder who will come first if that happens?

elZorro
29-06-2015, 08:55 PM
EZ, with all this bad economic news you must be getting excited - increases the odds of National losing doesn't it

Wonder who will come first if that happens?

In an ideal world, National would be able to steer NZ through these crises as though they didn't exist. But of course, they will need to ramp up the overseas borrowing again, as their only solution to a tricky situation. I don't think the voters will be happy with that answer, they'll get the stick they deserve for being useless with the levers of power.

Labour should get alongside the Greens and NZ First early on in this cycle, head off the naysayers and ride it out, this would be a solid and useful coalition.

Or, NZ could rely on Steven Joyce's MBIE to get things going.

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/24-000-fridge-among-mbie-s-big-spending-list-video-6341602

Here is the actual detail on the MBIE move to Stout St and adjacent Featherston St.

http://www.mbie.govt.nz/pdf-library/BACKGROUND%20ON%20MBIES%20HEAD%20OFFICE%20BUILDING %20COSTS-w.pdf

It was $2mill under budget, sure, if you can believe that, but nearly $16mill was spent on this project , including nearly $6mill fitout spent on a building they don't own, and another $10mill on furniture and loose fittings, other costs.

MBIE then moved some staff into these two buildings, but still have about 500 staff spread around parts of another 5 buildings in Wellington. These people cannot be fitted into the two newly fitted out buildings, they are at capacity.

But this is all OK, because by spending $16mill now, the government will be able to save an estimated $2mill in staff accommodation costs each year. At least all this money was placed in the external economy to be cycled around. While the Stout Street site is not even where all the main work is done by MBIE, it will be a good spot for the politicians to visit.

winner69
30-06-2015, 06:24 AM
Yea but lets not use that headroom huh & its a closer Greek scenario than the one you tried to draw. ;-)
And where is the plan to pay it off? Or will that be left up to a newly elected government.... again .
I would say Key stacks up better than many in his own party as well, not that is saying much, (pull ponytail), but he's the one that selects them as his cabinet, even if he does sin-bin them once & awhile.
Remind me. What committee did Mike Sabin chair just before he disappeared off the political scene?

Greece.......Puerto Rico ....Ukraine ....... New Zealand?

artemis
30-06-2015, 06:55 AM
... I would like even to see a voluntary scheme where people can opt out of the pension.

That is already the case. It is not compulsory to apply for National Super. No application, no pension.

Daytr
30-06-2015, 07:26 AM
Yeah fair enough. I wonder how many actually don't apply?
If 10% of those eligible didn't apply, I think it would same circa $1Bln pa.


That is already the case. It is not compulsory to apply for National Super. No application, no pension.

Sgt Pepper
30-06-2015, 08:32 AM
Yeah fair enough. I wonder how many actually don't apply?
If 10% of those eligible didn't apply, I think it would same circa $1Bln pa.

Daytr
I was speaking to someone he other day, he is 69, works full time and completely saves all his super every month. I am not sure this was envisaged when national super was initiated in 1975. It makes you think how long can this can, or should go on for. I am perplexed as to why the under 40s are not getting collectively angrier about this inequity. I guess it is explained that all governments are terrified of the baby boomers( I am one, 57yrs old)

Daytr
30-06-2015, 12:11 PM
SP, I think there is some anti baby boomer angst amongst the youth in regards these sorts of things and also the environment.
I'm mid 40's so probably have one eye on a pension, although I'm hoping I won't need it.
Means testing seems the most obvious thing to do as I like the idea of a pension for those who need it, but for the people with several million of assets then I think they should be cut out.

Daytr
30-06-2015, 02:57 PM
Anyone got thoughts on what's going on with Chinese stock markets & if they continue to get smashed with a nice little kick from Greece how that could impact the Auckland property market? It would be interesting to have a handle on the leverage of some of these Chinese buyers & if margin calls for stock positions could see a flood of house sales.
If the above scenario played out I would suggest Nationals ratings would fall in a heap.
First dairy prices & then log prices & then perhaps the property bubble bursts in Auckland.
Suddenly all those policies that actually make people feel uncomfortable, but were willing to turn a blind eye to as long as they were making a fortune in property, could become issues of interest.

BlackPeter
30-06-2015, 09:05 PM
SP, I think there is some anti baby boomer angst amongst the youth in regards these sorts of things and also the environment.
I'm mid 40's so probably have one eye on a pension, although I'm hoping I won't need it.
Means testing seems the most obvious thing to do as I like the idea of a pension for those who need it, but for the people with several million of assets then I think they should be cut out.

Hmm - so you are saying that the people who paid the most taxes to fund the super scheme shouldn't get it?

Sounds like funny justice to me: either you are stupid, work all your life, safe money, pay taxes but don't get anything out of the pot - or alternatively you join the lefties and suck from the very beginning whatever you can get out of the welfare system ... and hey - as a big reward you get for this behaviour as well your taxpayer funded superannuation.

How do the say: There is a right way - and their is a left way

Daytr
30-06-2015, 09:55 PM
BP, well unfortunately those taxes weren't put away in a separate pool of funds to ensure that the pension was funded.
So it wasn't funded at all & is being now funded by current tax payers.
I don't think anyone has the right to live off empty political promises.
Wasn't it National, Muldoon era that scrapped Super?
And now its National again not funding the Cullen fund.
I see also they are going to spend a huge amount on roads.
Key's motorways, billions spent, I wonder where the money is coming from?
More debt?

elZorro
01-07-2015, 06:40 AM
BP, well unfortunately those taxes weren't put away in a separate pool of funds to ensure that the pension was funded.
So it wasn't funded at all & is being now funded by current tax payers.
I don't think anyone has the right to live off empty political promises.
Wasn't it National, Muldoon era that scrapped Super?
And now its National again not funding the Cullen fund.
I see also they are going to spend a huge amount on roads.
Key's motorways, billions spent, I wonder where the money is coming from?
More debt?

I think you made some good points there, Daytr. :)

Business confidence falls in NZ survey, weakest in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. Mr Bagrie is starting to get worried. Wait until we all start asking the banks for more overdraft facilities, then they'll get the message. This is not going to be pleasant.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11473474&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Wednesday+1 +July+2015

Sgt Pepper
01-07-2015, 08:36 AM
Hmm - so you are saying that the people who paid the most taxes to fund the super scheme shouldn't get it?

Sounds like funny justice to me: either you are stupid, work all your life, safe money, pay taxes but don't get anything out of the pot - or alternatively you join the lefties and suck from the very beginning whatever you can get out of the welfare system ... and hey - as a big reward you get for this behaviour as well your taxpayer funded superannuation.

How do the say: There is a right way - and their is a left way

BP

I agree that National Super should not be means tested, however I, and many others are uncomfortable that it is paid to those who elect to work after the age of entitlement. One of the problems with National Super is its title. It is NOT a superannuation scheme, its an age related benefit. no more , no less. If that buffoon, Robert Muldoon had not scuttled Labours original scheme, which was modelled on Singapore National Pension scheme then people would still be entitled to a generous payment at 60, and entirely self funded.

Daytr
01-07-2015, 09:41 AM
There have been may things that have been available in the past that are no longer.
Things like an affordable university education where it meant working through your holidays funded your year including a few jugs of frothy stuff at the pub each week. Doctors visits & hospital care with no queues. Ambulance call outs its actually quite an endless list.
Why are retirees a protected species.
And I'm tired of hearing they paid their taxes so they have earned it.
They obviously didn't pay enough, otherwise there would be a pool of funds sitting there to pay for it.

SP, its a two way street on those who continue to work. Some perhaps need to work as need the income as well as the pension.
Means testing would ensure that those who need it get it.
Some may not have saved what they should have, some were just on a minimum wage all their life and never had the opportunity to save what they need. Others particularly in Auckland will retire millionaires by doing very little due to inflated property prices.
Giving government or tax payers money to people who clearly don't need it is wasteful & immoral when there are impoverished people & cuts to social spending and an underfunded education & health systems.

macduffy
01-07-2015, 09:51 AM
Spot on, Daytr. It's many years since the dedicated one shilling and sixpence social security tax was levied on earnings to provide, amongst other benefits, a Universal Super payment. National Super is funded from general taxation like everything else these days and if the country can't afford it either taxes will have to increase or savings made, either in quantum or in entitlement.

Disc: Receipient of the above.

artemis
01-07-2015, 11:33 AM
... I agree that National Super should not be means tested, however I, and many others are uncomfortable that it is paid to those who elect to work after the age of entitlement......

A year or two ago, Mary Holm did a column on just this issue. The net of it was that admin costs and tax take both increased and that it is more economic to keep the current system.

And it is not a simple issue, either. For example:

- How are costs to business owners calculated when they lose experienced employees who decide the game is not worth the candle.
- Or when the owners themselves fire the staff, close the business and play golf instead.
- What about the income of the self employed, which is often very lumpy. Will they have to call WINZ each week to report their income so the next payment can be calculated?
- How would income from other sources be accounted for, such as interest, dividends, rents, untaxed capital gains.
- Would people manage income and assets to get the best outcome. (Answer - yes of course, just as they do in Australia.)

But to me the biggest issue is, as mentioned, the moral hazard of rewarding the feckless and punishing the thrifty.

Anyway, the current government is not going to bring this is, nor will any government which relies on NZ First. Maybe the 'many others' should be lobbying one or more parties to include it as a policy. (Good luck with that.)

Daytr
01-07-2015, 12:07 PM
Its a bigger moral hazard imo to pay government money & taxes where its not needed.
How could it cost $1Bln in admin etc if 10% were culled? It could even be a higher percentage so even a bigger saving.
So I would suggest the report is a load of rubbish. Perhaps we should stop all checks on social spending, because it costs more to manage it than not apparently. Perhaps sell that to the ACC. LOL.
If you have the bar high enough then small bits of income fluctuation would not really be here nor there.

The baby boomer generation often think the youth are born with a sense of entitlement.
I would suggest this is an example of it being the other way around.
Both parents now need to work & its very hard to survive on one income with a family & probably impossible on minimum wage.
The reward for doing well in life is that you are comfortable in retirement & don't have to worry.
It shouldn't be in the form of an unnecessary handout.
If the money has been put aside, I wouldn't have a problem with it but it hasn't so its current tax payers footing the bill.
This is the great thing with Kiwi Saver, where the younger generation will fund at least partially their own retirement.
But I assume Labour don't get any credit for implementing that either or the Cullen Fund.

Daytr
01-07-2015, 12:34 PM
Put it another way.
Some have suggested moving the retirement age to 68.
That's very tough on those who work physically for a living.
Would it be better to pay the pension to only those who need it & leave it at 65 or raise everyone's entitlement age to 68?

Bjauck
01-07-2015, 04:18 PM
Put it another way.
Some have suggested moving the retirement age to 68.
That's very tough on those who work physically for a living.
Would it be better to pay the pension to only those who need it & leave it at 65 or raise everyone's entitlement age to 68?
Good point...shortly after the old age pension was introduced the age of eligibility was lowered for the reason that manual labourers needed to retire at an earlier age. To retain an early retirement age, we could make the ages of 65-72 subject to a means test;thereafter removing the test.

macduffy
01-07-2015, 04:41 PM
Good point...shortly after the old age pension was introduced the age of eligibility was lowered for the reason that manual labourers needed to retire at an earlier age. To retain an early retirement age, we could make the ages of 65-72 subject to a means test;thereafter removing the test.

Not a bad idea, Bj, but I doubt if any politician would have the bottle to put it to the electorate.

elZorro
01-07-2015, 08:04 PM
Good point...shortly after the old age pension was introduced the age of eligibility was lowered for the reason that manual labourers needed to retire at an earlier age. To retain an early retirement age, we could make the ages of 65-72 subject to a means test;thereafter removing the test.

Yes, some sort of a staged super would be fine for those who are well-off already. As long as they played ball.

Here's an excerpt from parliament from a few days ago about various matters, National's stories starting to unwind. I never liked Michelle Boag.

http://parliamenttoday.co.nz/podcast/mccullys-desert-farmgate-rolls-on/

elZorro
02-07-2015, 06:49 AM
Fonterra is starting on a job-cutting procedure already, and the overnight dairy auction prices dropped again.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/69858658/fonterra-announces-proposed-job-cuts?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+2+ July+2015

craic
02-07-2015, 06:58 AM
But you haven't told us what a Labour led government would do to solve this? Most voters know already. They would pull the blanket over their head with muffled moans of "woe is me. It's all the fault of the National Party"
Fonterra is starting on a job-cutting procedure already, and the overnight dairy auction prices dropped again.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/69858658/fonterra-announces-proposed-job-cuts?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+2+ July+2015

artemis
02-07-2015, 07:30 AM
..... The baby boomer generation often think the youth are born with a sense of entitlement. I would suggest this is an example of it being the other way around.

Last week's Listener editorial had quite a bit to say on intergenerationsl issues, including this:

Few debates are more pointless and depleting of nationhood and goodwill than those that involve the crude and sometimes cruel objectification of an entire generation. “Gen Y kids are too sheltered.” ”Baby boomers are greedy.” None of us has any say over when we are born. Most of us do our best with the set of socio-economic cards we’re dealt. How we get on, singly or en masse, is not even necessarily within our control.


Both parents now need to work & its very hard to survive on one income with a family & probably impossible on minimum wage.

That's an unjustified generalisation. Plenty of families are on a single income. Some even headed by a sole parent. Perhaps it is harder in Auckland but a lot of people live in cheaper areas. Families on one minimum wage (or even two) will be able to get taxpayer top ups via Working for Families, child care, accommodation supplement.

winner69
02-07-2015, 07:55 AM
EZ, for quite a few tertiary education is heavily subsidised by the tax payer
http://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/76266/total-540-student-loans-worth-record-177m-written-one-yeyear

so $15 billion in outstanding student loans - shocking figure

is this the older generations supporting the younger generations?

Daytr
02-07-2015, 07:57 AM
National recently were quoted (Simon Bridges I believe) as saying there is room for more dairy conversion. They are promoting more irrigation dams in the regions to 'support' such conversions. This is very like their poorly thought out support for the fossil fuel industry. National are stuck in the 20th century not the 21st.
They haven't woken up to the fact that the oil based era is winding down & that dairy has global over capacity. China is now dealing direct with Russia on mega factory farms. Probably using Fonterra's technology & know how courtesy of the dairy factories Fonterra set up in China. National have not encouraged diversification of NZ industry instead supporting the same old primary producers and not adding value to NZ. The honey industry is a prime example that is crying out for guidance to ensure NZ retains its advantage & it becomes a valuable commodity for generations. Solar energy is another that National has helped undermine.
What National do is sell stuff & build roads. Anyone would think they are kids playing shop keeper or with toy diggers in the backyard, so simplistic is their approach to NZs future.

elZorro
02-07-2015, 10:13 AM
But you haven't told us what a Labour led government would do to solve this? Most voters know already. They would pull the blanket over their head with muffled moans of "woe is me. It's all the fault of the National Party"

Labour did have a likely solution to this sort of problem: R&D tax credits in place for SMEs by 2008 finacial year. The aim was an incentive to widen areas of product research and manufacturing for export in NZ, for the very players who are already involved and have done the hard yards. National scrapped it pronto, in 2008. This shortsightedness was probably egged on by their few big business backers, who wanted more of the funds for themselves. They've certainly achieved that.

National rejoiced in the massively high dairy payout a year or so ago, and still didn't manage to take in enough taxes to balance their own books. Now they are stumped, there is no major other sector that is doing well in the export area either, and many manufacturing businesses are ramping down, not up.

craic
02-07-2015, 11:39 AM
Don'y you see elZorro? You are rejoicing in every trend or event that might affect the current government and lead to a Labour victory, even if the trend is outside the influence of any government here and regardless of its cost to this country and its people. This mantra is typical of the left. Try coming up with something other than minor Labour policies that failed through their own ineptitude. We need a government with bold new policies not a chanting mob.

winner69
02-07-2015, 04:44 PM
EZ, latest request. This time from Sue

Government changes to ACC vehicle levies mean that you could be one of the million New Zealanders who, from yesterday, will have to pay more for their car registrations than they should.

The price of car registration may be dropping but National’s changes actually mean drivers of older cars will pay more than their fair share for the ACC part of their rego.

They say that they’re trying to encourage Kiwis into buying safer cars, but all it does is penalise people who drive older cars – people who are likely to be on lower incomes like retirees and young families. There’s no evidence to show that charging people more for older cars improves safety on the road, either.

It’s unfair, it’s a mess, and Labour will fix it. Labour’s committed to:
Scrap the government's unfair ACC vehicle charges

-Ensure New Zealanders are not overcharged for their registration
-Continue to push the government to stop overcharging hundreds of thousands of Kiwis
-Keep the focus on reducing injuries and accidents

elZorro
02-07-2015, 05:18 PM
EZ, latest request. This time from Sue

Government changes to ACC vehicle levies mean that you could be one of the million New Zealanders who, from yesterday, will have to pay more for their car registrations than they should.

The price of car registration may be dropping but National’s changes actually mean drivers of older cars will pay more than their fair share for the ACC part of their rego.

They say that they’re trying to encourage Kiwis into buying safer cars, but all it does is penalise people who drive older cars – people who are likely to be on lower incomes like retirees and young families. There’s no evidence to show that charging people more for older cars improves safety on the road, either.

It’s unfair, it’s a mess, and Labour will fix it. Labour’s committed to:
Scrap the government's unfair ACC vehicle charges

-Ensure New Zealanders are not overcharged for their registration
-Continue to push the government to stop overcharging hundreds of thousands of Kiwis
-Keep the focus on reducing injuries and accidents

Yes, Sue Moroney is Labour's spokesperson on ACC. So her time to shine. There were massive queues in post office branches (partitions of video shops and pharmacies I mean) doing their registrations yesterday, to save a few dollars. I guess some didn't save much.

I hope you signed, W69. Your link pack up the page a bit, isn't working. Otherwise I would chip in with my 2c worth..

winner69
02-07-2015, 07:23 PM
EZ, it was this

http://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/76266/total-540-student-loans-worth-record-177m-written-one-year

winner69
02-07-2015, 07:30 PM
EZ, this is interesting. Your team needs to understand these connections

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11474706&ref=NZH_Tw

Each dot is a MP and the lines are the connections each has with other MPs

Somebody has noted that are too many Labour MPs (red dots) too close to Nat MPs (like too friendly)

Another said that MPs aren't really that connected with each other, even with their own party members 1 and that is not good if we want Parliament working for all us

Good graphic anyway - betcha CT are analysing an interactive version that's somewhere which shows the names

blackcap
02-07-2015, 09:52 PM
That looks like a nice bouquet there winner :) CT may be trying to add names to dots but I would be interested to see them as well. Haha what will they come up with next!

elZorro
03-07-2015, 06:42 AM
EZ, this is interesting. Your team needs to understand these connections

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11474706&ref=NZH_Tw

Each dot is a MP and the lines are the connections each has with other MPs

Somebody has noted that are too many Labour MPs (red dots) too close to Nat MPs (like too friendly)

Another said that MPs aren't really that connected with each other, even with their own party members 1 and that is not good if we want Parliament working for all us

Good graphic anyway - betcha CT are analysing an interactive version that's somewhere which shows the names

Yes, very interesting, looks like there is a lot of watching of opposition tweets, and some members must spend all their time compiling their tweets. I was intrigued that Winston Peters appears much more connected with Labour than National, all good. Some of the strongest MPs don't bother 'following', it's either mutual links, or they are being watched.

Reporters in the Regions are starting to wake up.


3/7/2015 — General
Alarm bells at the RBNZ?
By Simon Hartley
Alarm Bells will be ringing with the Reserve Bank with May having been a “whopping” $1.5 billion mortgage lending month, and some economists now picking up to three more cuts to the interest driving official cash rate (OCR) this year - back to the record low 2.5%.
The economy is proving a double-edged sword for the Reserve Bank, with Auckland's heated housing bubble fuelled by the low OCR, while dairying's downward spiral rips cash from dairy farmers, regional economies and trade receipts.
ASB senior economist Nick Tuffley said overall the country's credit growth was running at its fastest pace since the global financial crisis hit, during 2008/09.
“Mortgage lending had a whopping month in excess of $1.5 B of net lending growth,” Tuffley said earlier in the week.
However, following the eighth consecutive decline in the global dairy auction yesterday, of 6% overall and 10% to the crucial whole milk powder component, Tuffley predicted the Reserve Bank would cut the OCR a further 75 basis points; in July, September and October, to a low of 2.5%.
He said four key reasons was the weakening in the dairy auction, business confidence and consumer confidence in dairy-focussed reasons, and now a revised review to there being a slower recovery in dairy prices.
“There are some uncertainties around when or if the last cut [October] cut will be delivered,” Tuffley said.
Similarly, ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said there was little on the horizon to suggest there will be a meaningful turnaround in international milk powder prices anytime soon.
Having previously forecast the OCR down to 2.75%, Bagrie yesterday revised that down a further 25 basis points to 2.5% also.
“Following a 25 basis point cut later this month, we forecast the Reserve Bank to deliver a third consecutive cut in September,” he said.
However, Bagrie said “the economy is not grinding to a halt just yet,” noting the extent of New Zealand dollar depreciation seen to date, and key positive economic pillars which still existed, such as net migration, tourism and net wealth gains.
On the questions of the country's rising credit, Tuffley said housing credit would be the aspect catching the Reserve Bank's attention the most.
“It is clear that, even before the Reserve Bank cut the OCR in June, past falls in interest rates were already fuelling mortgage borrowing demand,” he said.
Mortgage lending was at its strongest dollar value growth since November 2007.
“The temperature remains high in the Auckland housing market, with signs of lifting activity elsewhere,” Tuffley said.
Recent declines in mortgage rates were likely to be playing a part in stimulating the added lending growth.
*Simon Hartley is senior business reporter and assistant chief reporter for the Otago Daily Times.



More on the housing bubble in Auckland.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11474275&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+3+Ju ly+2015

winner69
03-07-2015, 07:19 AM
EZ, you'll love this. Nats manipulating iPredict and in a Rodney's Raving Nat supporters 'manipulating' the Business Confidence Survey.

I post a link to the article when he puts it up on his web site. Interest.co.nz might publish it as well.

Just a teaser -

However, after Labour came to power in late-1999 and introduced some not so business-friendly legislation in 2000, the survey began to provide a much too negative indication of near-term GDP growth prospects. This is reflected by the massive gap opening up between the survey and GDP growth between 2001 and early-2008. Based on the survey, the economy should have headed into deep recession in 2006 but instead GDP growth improved to 3.5%. Not all business people are National supporters, but during Labour's terms in office between 1999 and 2008 a significant number of survey respondents were ticking the negative boxes as a form of political protest. Such behaviour is not uncommon with surveys that get lots of media coverage (i.e. the extensive media coverage the survey gets makes it more prone to be used and abused for "political" and other ends).
After National came to power in 2008 and implemented some business-friendly legislation, the survey improved much more than justified by the post-crisis rebound in economic growth in 2009/10 and it consistently provided an overly optimistic indication of near-term economic growth prospects from 2011 to 2014. Some of the respondents were ticking the positives boxes in the survey as a way of expressing political support for National. That is, until Governor Wheeler opened the door to business people ticking the negative boxes in the survey as a means to get lower interest rates and a lower exchange rate.


What do I keep telling you about perception equals reality. Your team is always on the back foot I fear.

neopoleII
03-07-2015, 07:33 PM
with the perception of Europe going down the toilet and china slipping on a banana skin.....
and the perception that the right wing isnt the best "socially" "equal" sort of government....
but it is country wise a cornerstone of "not falling into the toilet" ....
what does this mean for the left wing of "living wage" and "green taxes" and "share the WFF benefits to non workers" etc........
it seems the perception of the left wing handouts is becoming a worry to the handout recipients.
thanks to the greek issues on mainstream tv.
interesting times ahead.

elZorro
03-07-2015, 08:16 PM
EZ, you'll love this. Nats manipulating iPredict and in a Rodney's Raving Nat supporters 'manipulating' the Business Confidence Survey.

I post a link to the article when he puts it up on his web site. Interest.co.nz might publish it as well.

Just a teaser -

However, after Labour came to power in late-1999 and introduced some not so business-friendly legislation in 2000, the survey began to provide a much too negative indication of near-term GDP growth prospects. This is reflected by the massive gap opening up between the survey and GDP growth between 2001 and early-2008. Based on the survey, the economy should have headed into deep recession in 2006 but instead GDP growth improved to 3.5%. Not all business people are National supporters, but during Labour's terms in office between 1999 and 2008 a significant number of survey respondents were ticking the negative boxes as a form of political protest. Such behaviour is not uncommon with surveys that get lots of media coverage (i.e. the extensive media coverage the survey gets makes it more prone to be used and abused for "political" and other ends).
After National came to power in 2008 and implemented some business-friendly legislation, the survey improved much more than justified by the post-crisis rebound in economic growth in 2009/10 and it consistently provided an overly optimistic indication of near-term economic growth prospects from 2011 to 2014. Some of the respondents were ticking the positives boxes in the survey as a way of expressing political support for National. That is, until Governor Wheeler opened the door to business people ticking the negative boxes in the survey as a means to get lower interest rates and a lower exchange rate.


What do I keep telling you about perception equals reality. Your team is always on the back foot I fear.

You're probably right about the back-foot part, both parties know that perception is an important part of marketing a message. Labour just have to use their strength of numbers to get funding sorted out, and then they can change perceptions, that's the easier part. But I am seeing a lack of get-up-and-go in the local electorate from party members (and even from paid head office staff, which is worse).

I've always thought that the business perception surveys were heavily weighted in favour of National policies, supportive of govt and positive when National were in, critical and pessimistic when Labour were in. The tax take says it all really, businesses actually do better in general when Labour are in power, the economy is grown. National have been busy since 2008 trying to offshore the economy, and doing generally destructive things like selling off assets.

elZorro
03-07-2015, 08:48 PM
EZ, for quite a few tertiary education is heavily subsidised by the tax payer
http://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/76266/total-540-student-loans-worth-record-177m-written-one-yeyear

so $15 billion in outstanding student loans - shocking figure

is this the older generations supporting the younger generations?

It's not a shocking figure, this is the cumulative student debt and some interest building up over time. In my generation we all had virtually free tertiary education, somehow the tax take was sufficient to cover it, and most of us have paid income taxes since, to help pay that forward. I think it's a bit rude that the older generations who had that benefit of free tertiary education didn't ensure it stayed that way- now it's only subsidised by about 70% for NZers.

Wealthier families can reduce the burden on any of their children who attend tertiary courses, poorer families cannot. This all just helps to widen the gap between the haves and the have-nots. Neopole II was saying (I think) that we have to be careful not to become like the Greeks.

Not much chance of that, we have always been a country of hard workers. But now we have to be smart too, we have to gear up, create an asset base, an edge, be more savvy. If we're not all that qualified, we need enough others who are, to employ or support us in well-paid jobs earning more overseas exchange. You have to wonder if charging students for a hefty portion of their tertiary education, and then crippling the economy and job prospects so that nearly everyone needs a degree just to get their first proper job, is that great an outcome.

winner69
04-07-2015, 11:03 AM
EZ, here's that thing on Nat supporters 'manipulating' those surveys.

http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/76342/rodney-dickens-thinks-respondents-are-ticking-negative-boxes-anz-survey-supply

winner69
04-07-2015, 11:06 AM
You're probably right about the back-foot part, both parties know that perception is an important part of marketing a message. Labour just have to use their strength of numbers to get funding sorted out, and then they can change perceptions, that's the easier part. But I am seeing a lack of get-up-and-go in the local electorate from party members (and even from paid head office staff, which is worse).


That last sentence is pretty damming - you must be getting awfully frustrated

Just over 24 months to go .....need to their proverbial into gear

Daytr
04-07-2015, 11:08 AM
No you can't help when you are born, but individual decisions put together create a general outcome.
Such an election for instance. But I agree put blame aside & look to make change for the good & that includes not paying the pension or taxpayer money to those who clearly don't need it.

Re the double income, not its not an unjustified generalization because it is a common occurrence.
So I would suggest its perfectly valid especially when compared with previous generations as we were discussing, the baby boomers.
The massive increase in women in the work force in the last 40 years or so is another reason why wages have been kept in check as the pool of labour has grown substantially. I'm not blaming anyone, its just an outcome.



of nationhood and goodwill than those that involve the crude and sometimes cruel objectification of an entire generation. “Gen Y kids are too sheltered.” ”Baby boomers are greedy.” None of us has any say over when we are born. Most of us do our best with the set of socio-economic cards we’re dealt. How we get on, singly or en masse, is not even necessarily within our control.



That's an unjustified generalisation. Plenty of families are on a single income. Some even headed by a sole parent. Perhaps it is harder in Auckland but a lot of people live in cheaper areas. Families on one minimum wage (or even two) will be able to get taxpayer top ups via Working for Families, child care, accommodation supplement.[/QUOTE]

elZorro
04-07-2015, 11:51 AM
EZ, here's that thing on Nat supporters 'manipulating' those surveys.

http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/76342/rodney-dickens-thinks-respondents-are-ticking-negative-boxes-anz-survey-supply

That's great data, W69, cheers for that. If I filled out one of those surveys, I'd be tempted to be a bit political too.

What I noticed from the graphs is that while there was a definite offset depending on whether National or Labour were in power, the prediction trends within the terms of office tended to be about right. Business people could predict two quarters out, what was likely to happen in the wider economy, for better or worse. So I can't fully agree with Rodney, as this sudden downturn in the confidence survey, both for the wider economy and their own businesses, is probably real. It certainly lines up with the thoughts of the regional business owners I've been talking to, plus some who are exporters and based in the cities. We are all fairly scared about the sales prospects going forward.

The ANZ prediction charts both peaked positively just before the last general election. Actual results in GDP growth weren't so good.

The other point is that Labour's policies achieved GDP growth in the face of those earlier pessimistic surveys, quite good growth that the businesses must have seen, despite their political persuasions. And it was done when we didn't have record immigration. I wonder how bad the National Govt's GDP growth data would look, if we took away the wealthier immigrant effect. Although the population of NZ has been trending upwards since at least 1990, at a fairly constant rate. Labour achieved a peak of 6.5% GDP growth at one stage, National hasn't managed better than 3.5%, and that was in the last spell, where population growth has been 2% p.a.

NZ has experienced record net immigration levels up to the end of 2014, of more than 47,000 annually. This will have helped the GDP numbers, just by itself.

elZorro
05-07-2015, 11:04 AM
A very interesting Q&A and The Nation today, the panels starting to be quite unified in giving the govt a bit of stick for just not doing their job as well as they should be.

Stephen Topliss was mentioned on both shows, the economist from BNZ says it's not impossible we could go into a recession soon. One of the reasons for this sentiment is that they have been out into the provinces and gathered some feedback. I'm sure their loan officers from all around the country are also providing feedback.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11475567

fungus pudding
05-07-2015, 11:47 AM
A very interesting Q&A and The Nation today, the panels starting to be quite unified in giving the govt a bit of stick for just not doing their job as well as they should be.

Stephen Topliss was mentioned on both shows, the economist from BNZ says it's not impossible we could go into a recession soon.

Of course it's not. Never is in the global world we exist. The sad thing is you and your ilk will be rubbing your hands in glee, just hoping we do.

Sgt Pepper
05-07-2015, 12:34 PM
Of course it's not. Never is in the global world we exist. The sad thing is you and your ilk will be rubbing your hands in glee, just hoping we do.


FP

Interesting article in the business section of the SST today. Good news for NZ manufacturing in that China is no longer the natural 'go to' if you need something made or fabricated. Chinese manufacturers have lost some of their advantages , demanding longer runs before accepting orders . Makes you think this could develop, especially with our dollar declining

elZorro
05-07-2015, 01:19 PM
FP

Interesting article in the business section of the SST today. Good news for NZ manufacturing in that China is no longer the natural 'go to' if you need something made or fabricated. Chinese manufacturers have lost some of their advantages , demanding longer runs before accepting orders . Makes you think this could develop, especially with our dollar declining

Sgt Pepper, that was a strange article about FERO, a cable harness manufacturer. I noticed that they still offer a Made in China service for their customers, it's just you go through them. Several other manufacturing areas do the same. Badges for your sports team? Made in China, 3-4 weeks wait. We've been finding the deals from China are getting better, it's easier to talk with them over the phone and by email. When the prices are about 1/3 of the NZ made prices sometimes, it's hard to go past. My business is still doing most manufacturing here in NZ, but we'll buy some parts from overseas.

FP, why would I be happy with a recession? I'll be in the middle of it, I'll make a negative return, just like nearly 10,000 dairy farmers, who Steven Joyce correctly pointed out, provide 20% of our export returns, but are only 5% of the economy (and the rest). But if a recession wakes up the voting public and they compare Labour's record with National's for once, then there will be a small silver lining in 2017.

fungus pudding
05-07-2015, 02:38 PM
FP, why would I be happy with a recession? I'll be in the middle of it, I'll make a negative return, just like nearly 10,000 dairy farmers, who Steven Joyce correctly pointed out, provide 20% of our export returns, but are only 5% of the economy (and the rest). But if a recession wakes up the voting public and they compare Labour's record with National's for once, then there will be a small silver lining in 2017.

The next govt. will almost certainly be a coalition of National and Winston First. Labour won't make it until they find a leader.

winner69
05-07-2015, 04:18 PM
Far too many 65 year olds taking their Kiwisaver and paying down/off the mortgage or worse still spending it says Bernard
http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/76335/bernard-hickey-argues-its-time-think-about-how-million-retiring-kiwisavers-could

One thing Annuities would be a bad bad idea. But betcha the greedy finance industry is pushing for it to be compulsory.

Me, haven't withdrawn yet but get around to it before the market collapses. Probably spend it. Thanks for reminding me Bernard.

elZorro
05-07-2015, 05:01 PM
The next govt. will almost certainly be a coalition of National and Winston First. Labour won't make it until they find a leader.

Twitter says NO, FP. Winston doesn't waste time connecting to any National MPs (he watches John Key, John doesn't reciprocate), but he does have three or more two-way links with Labour MPs, including one to the leader. If you look at NZ First's website policies, they look like Labour policies to me. And Winston apparently doesn't like John Key too much. Why did he make such an effort in Northland (including a hammer demonstration), to beat a National candidate expecting a huge majority?

Labour does have a leader, his name is Andrew Little, and he's doing fine. You might be trying to help National with some propaganda FP, but it won't change reality. It'll be a wild ride leading up to the 2017 elections. Three terms in, three terms out.

Major von Tempsky
05-07-2015, 06:10 PM
I think we should offer El Zorro Greek citizenship, he can go there and enjoy the socialist Paradise on a never ending stream of Other People's Money from the rest of the EU.

And after Syriza lose the referendum tomorrow the NZLP should make Alexis Tsipras and Yannis Varoufakis an offer they can't refuse to come to NZ and work for the NZLP.

Sgt Pepper
05-07-2015, 11:32 PM
I think we should offer El Zorro Greek citizenship, he can go there and enjoy the socialist Paradise on a never ending stream of Other People's Money from the rest of the EU.

And after Syriza lose the referendum tomorrow the NZLP should make Alexis Tsipras and Yannis Varoufakis an offer they can't refuse to come to NZ and work for the NZLP.

major
I am surprised by your veiled contempt of Yannis Varoufakis considering you are an economist. Or is your CV/ better than his?? I would be surprised, but prove me wrong.

winner69
06-07-2015, 01:44 AM
major
I am surprised by your veiled contempt of Yannis Varoufakis considering you are an economist. Or is your CV/ better than his?? I would be surprised, but prove me wrong.

MVT models himself on a flamboyant soldier Major Gustavus Ferdinand von Tempsky (sure that what he told us years ago) who was prominent in the Maori Wars but who eventually met his comeuppance (shot in the head) in the Taranaki Wars.

However the Majors latest posts may unveil his real von Tempsky Prussian/ German roots ....and their contempt for things Greek

winner69
06-07-2015, 06:59 AM
Here's Greece's finance minister in 1953, canceling 50% of Germany's debt. Because it was the right thing to do.

BlackPeter
06-07-2015, 07:38 AM
Here's Greece's finance minister in 1953, canceling 50% of Germany's debt. Because it was the right thing to do.

Look winner, maybe you should first take a history lesson or two before you continue to spread the Left spin ...

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-27/germany-deserved-debt-relief-greece-doesn-t-i5fdca2y



Germany had brought it on itself, of course, but it was no longer ruled by the Nazis: It was doing its best to expiate its past, work that still continues and that defines the consensual, value-based nature of German leadership in today's Europe. The creditors felt they needed to help that effort.

The circumstances under which Greece accumulated its debt are strikingly different. After restoring democracy in 1974 after seven years of military rule, the Greek government splurged on a full range of socialist benefits, including higher pensions and universally accessible health care, as well as on a big government. It financed a railroad that had more employees than passengers; even before the military coup, it started paying salaries to Orthodox priests, and it still does so, though there has been a pay cut after international creditors demanded it. For three decades, Greece ran unsustainable fiscal deficits, borrowed to cover them -- and then lied about them to Eurostat so it could join the euro in 2001.

There is a not-so-subtle difference between voluntarily taking on debts made by previous, rogue governments at a currency rate favorable to the creditors -- and heedlessly accumulating debts of one's own while concealing the true size of budget deficits. In the first case, the implication is harsh self-imposed discipline and penitence. In the second case, profligacy.

Daytr
06-07-2015, 08:31 AM
I would suggest Greece just became a better place after the no vote & if they walk away from their debts.
Plenty of countries before them have done it, including the US, England, Russia & more recently the likes of Iceland which is now doing very nicely, thank you. Don't get me wrong I don't think you should walk away from your obligations, if you can, but there is a point of no return & Greece has reached that & Europe allowed it to happen& should never included Greece in the flawed Euro in the first place.
Once the dust settles, it will prove to be a very good place to invest, as is likely to be super cheap.
If MVT was an economist (which I have my doubts due to some of the understanding in his posts) he would know that it is the IMF & EU that have socialized the Greek debt by bailing out the commercial banks & spreading the debt across the European taxpayer & member countries of the IMF.
Now that's socialism at its best. The right wing are all for each person for themselves when things are going well, but when it turns to crap they want bailouts & Joe citizen to foot the bill. Seems when the going gets tough they are just lefties at heart. ;-)

craic
06-07-2015, 12:41 PM
I suppose the high level of sentimental support from the left wing here for a failed left wing government in Greece is understandable but the bottom line is that they have lived off others and now the others are saying enough is enough and keeping their hands in their pockets. Corruption exists the like nowhere else. Pensions at 50? and the like. I went to Wuppertal Elberfield in Germany in 1955 with my army unit and the most striking thing about the place was the rebuilding - not just during the day. The scaffolding was covered with lanterns from dark and they worked all night and on the weekends. There were no beggars on the spotless streets and the ordinary Germans worked their way out of the mess of war with speed.

RGR367
06-07-2015, 01:30 PM
Guys, have a read on what Germany did with their debts https://medium.com/@gavinschalliol/thomas-piketty-germany-has-never-repaid-7b5e7add6fff

Daytr
06-07-2015, 01:36 PM
So with government debt under National virtually tripling in seven years, does that make them a failed government as well? :-)


I suppose the high level of sentimental support from the left wing here for a failed left wing government in Greece is understandable but the bottom line is that they have lived off others and now the others are saying enough is enough and keeping their hands in their pockets. Corruption exists the like nowhere else. Pensions at 50? and the like. I went to Wuppertal Elberfield in Germany in 1955 with my army unit and the most striking thing about the place was the rebuilding - not just during the day. The scaffolding was covered with lanterns from dark and they worked all night and on the weekends. There were no beggars on the spotless streets and the ordinary Germans worked their way out of the mess of war with speed.

BlackPeter
06-07-2015, 02:04 PM
Guys, have a read on what Germany did with their debts https://medium.com/@gavinschalliol/thomas-piketty-germany-has-never-repaid-7b5e7add6fff

Sure - if Piketty is saying it, than it must be true. I guess he tries to live off "Karl Marx's" fame and even copied the name of Marx famous book. Difference is - Karl Marx produced a lot of new and thought provoking ideas, even if history proved him wrong.

Piketty is of the same ilk and political stable as Tsipras. Hard-left. Interesting as well that they don't bring facts in this article, the article is only a collection of Piketty's views. Sure - he is entitled to his views as everybody else, but why is this newsworthy?

Sgt Pepper
06-07-2015, 02:19 PM
I suppose the high level of sentimental support from the left wing here for a failed left wing government in Greece is understandable but the bottom line is that they have lived off others and now the others are saying enough is enough and keeping their hands in their pockets. Corruption exists the like nowhere else. Pensions at 50? and the like. I went to Wuppertal Elberfield in Germany in 1955 with my army unit and the most striking thing about the place was the rebuilding - not just during the day. The scaffolding was covered with lanterns from dark and they worked all night and on the weekends. There were no beggars on the spotless streets and the ordinary Germans worked their way out of the mess of war with speed.


You seem to have forgotten to mention Marshal Plan aid which was $1.48 billion for West Germany

craic
06-07-2015, 03:16 PM
Ididn't forget anything. I simply point ou that the Germans I saw at that time were a hardworkink crowd, intent on putting their country back together after the huge destruction of the bombing of the Rhine industrial areas - as in Wuppertal. All I am seeing of the greeks is protesters and beggars and "old" folks, some in their fifties, lining up for their pensions. They are a soverign nation. Why shouldn't the others step back and let them sort their affairs out. The money they owe is already lost but no one owes them more handouts.
You seem to have forgotten to mention Marshal Plan aid which was $1.48 billion for West Germany

Daytr
06-07-2015, 03:51 PM
Yep I agree Craic, (think that's a first!)
In saying that its Euro that keeps giving them handouts & will provide more if the y reform.
They wont reform, so don't give them another cent & write the debt off.
Only way forward in my view & both parties will be better off. (in the long run)


Ididn't forget anything. I simply point ou that the Germans I saw at that time were a hardworkink crowd, intent on putting their country back together after the huge destruction of the bombing of the Rhine industrial areas - as in Wuppertal. All I am seeing of the greeks is protesters and beggars and "old" folks, some in their fifties, lining up for their pensions. They are a soverign nation. Why shouldn't the others step back and let them sort their affairs out. The money they owe is already lost but no one owes them more handouts.

westerly
06-07-2015, 05:59 PM
Sure - if Piketty is saying it, than it must be true. I guess he tries to live off "Karl Marx's" fame and even copied the name of Marx famous book. Difference is - Karl Marx produced a lot of new and thought provoking ideas, even if history proved him wrong.

Piketty is of the same ilk and political stable as Tsipras. Hard-left. Interesting as well that they don't bring facts in this article, the article is only a collection of Piketty's views. Sure - he is entitled to his views as everybody else, but why is this newsworthy?

Describing Piketty as hard left would be an exaggeration but predictable. No doubt the right favouring “Economist” magazine would agree but he his ideas have attracted considerable comment which is why they are newsworthy.
But then Russia and Cuba etc. are far left communists countries are they not ?
But perhaps they should be called dictatorships a much more truthful description, something that seems to happen to most countries that fall into chaos. The US seems to have had a hand in most of the modern situations where this may happen.

westerly

winner69
06-07-2015, 08:07 PM
EZ, Fiona Smith-Cutting just got me to do a survey. Apparently it's going to help her tell a story - "Wouldn’t it be great if we could tell the story of our movement? Of all of us working together – who we are, what we care about and what our hopes for New Zealand are?"

So EZ you team don't have that story yet and only 2 years before you start campaigning in earnest - not good

Must say pretty amateurish sort of survey. If the depth of the thinking behind the questions is indicative of where Labour are heading you guys in trouble

Obviously trying to pick on John Key is one strategy (question - what do you think of John Key?) and focusing on excessive (or ill targeted) government spending is another. Dangerous ground I fear

Glad that funding gardens in schools is on the agenda. They are great. I been involved in setting up a couple (like getting companies to supply the seeds, potting mix, fertilisers and mulch and such) - and seeing kids getting involved in growing veggies and fruit and then learning how to cook them or how to make salads is fantastic. Kids do eat fresh veggies and apples - a health initiative well worth it.

Anyway EZ just a rave ......might stay subscribed to this Labour thing to see what they come up with next, Fiona promised to stay in touch.

Annoys me when after being nice and doing her survey she asks me for a donation.

elZorro
06-07-2015, 09:23 PM
EZ, Fiona Smith-Cutting just got me to do a survey. Apparently it's going to help her tell a story - "Wouldn’t it be great if we could tell the story of our movement? Of all of us working together – who we are, what we care about and what our hopes for New Zealand are?"

So EZ you team don't have that story yet and only 2 years before you start campaigning in earnest - not good

Must say pretty amateurish sort of survey. If the depth of the thinking behind the questions is indicative of where Labour are heading you guys in trouble

Obviously trying to pick on John Key is one strategy (question - what do you think of John Key?) and focusing on excessive (or ill targeted) government spending is another. Dangerous ground I fear

Glad that funding gardens in schools is on the agenda. They are great. I been involved in setting up a couple (like getting companies to supply the seeds, potting mix, fertilisers and mulch and such) - and seeing kids getting involved in growing veggies and fruit and then learning how to cook them or how to make salads is fantastic. Kids do eat fresh veggies and apples - a health initiative well worth it.

Anyway EZ just a rave ......might stay subscribed to this Labour thing to see what they come up with next, Fiona promised to stay in touch.

Annoys me when after being nice and doing her survey she asks me for a donation.

If you keep this up, W69, I'll have to see if we can send you a red-coloured badge :) You're right, Labour are getting organised a bit late. Better late than never I guess.

Interesting that these new Labour polling tactics seem a bit tentative, and possibly they are too public. National spends a bit more cash, and they have smaller private focus groups where they'll pose these questions. It's still the same technique, it's just done a lot better by Crosby-Textor. Then these findings or subliminal suggestions are put out through their social media, and again they have a lot of resources there.

Article on the dairy cheque, a looming disaster as far as regional business profits go.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11476655&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+7+J uly+2015

Daytr
07-07-2015, 08:18 AM
First it was the BNZ & now its the ANZ saying the NZ economy is potentially in trouble & that the Government needs to spend MORE to stimulate the economy. See this is the problem when all you do is spend & borrow in the good times, i.e. the Dairy Boom era, instead of putting away some money & create a surplus to pay down debt. Bad times come along & hey debt needs to rise further. The tax take is likely to take a massive hit at the same time as the Government may be required to increase spending to stave off a potential recession.
Remember this. John Key today has shrugged this off.
National is a train wreck. Jumping from one ill thought out policy to another.
Trebling the national debt, having the longest run of years in a row of deficits, eclipsing the previous record, again set by National.
They HOPE that dairy is going to recover in 2016. That is looking mighty unlikely as global dairy production has exploded & issues around the Chinese economy is having a massive impact on commodity prices. Any potential lift in wholesale prices will also take the best part of a year or more to filter through to the farmer. The lower NZD will help, but I don't think its going to be enough on its own.

Daytr
07-07-2015, 08:49 AM
Seems we have a genius as a PM.
From Key's mouth. "yes, dairy prices are down a little bit"
Really John? LOL
Next he will be saying. Government debt has only increased a little bit !
Auckland property prices are only up a little bit...
I only like yanking ponytails a little bit... LOL

tga_trader
07-07-2015, 08:59 AM
I'm still not sure what you think Labour coulda/should/woulda done differently. Maybe set up a fake Trademe account and shill bid on the dairy auctions?
You seem to have a lot of free time on your hands so maybe you should offer your expert assistance to the Govt. It's so frustration how much political time is wasted on on trying to attack the leading party. Isn't everyone working towards the betterment of the country? It shouldn't be red team vs blue team, the opposition (start with getting rid of that name) parties should be acting as a support role to the leading party.
/idealistic views

Daytr
07-07-2015, 09:17 AM
tga trader, I'm not a huge fan of Labour either. Apparently if you criticize the government its straight away assumed you must be a lefty.
Bad assumption.
Although Labour reduced the government debt in its lengthy term in office & certainly didn't treble it.
What could be/have been done, by National or another party in regards dairy?
They could have put some money away in the last 3-4 years so if the bad times do come they have capacity.
Encourage further diversification of industry, pretty simple. They could have encouraged a solar energy industry for one, instead they protect the inefficient power generators from the South Island. They could be guiding the bourgeoning honey industry in IP and R&D.
Only in the last few weeks National (Simon Bridges I think) saying there is more room for dairy conversions !
They could have policed the swamp kauri mining even to the intent of the current flimsy law & encouraged an industry around it.
They should have not abandoned the regions like Northland and others.
I agree it shouldn't be blue vs red, but unfortunately it pretty much is & National are as guilty if not guiltier than anyone else in this with their ugly scenes in parliament.

tga_trader
07-07-2015, 09:48 AM
No I never assumed you were a Labour supporter, just as I'm no devoted National supporter. Can't stand people who blindly vote red or blue solely because they/their parents always have. But given that they are (for now) the 2 majority parties if it wasn't national it would be Labour and co. giving it a crack, and I just can't imagine it having gone any differently. Past performances aside it's impossible to know (and we never will) how a different coalition would have performed under the exact same circumstances.
I do agree with your points though and would much rather parliament was dominated by meaningful discussion like that than schoolyard rubbish, though I do concede that National can be as bad, if not worse, than anyone else.
Dairy, and farming in general, over the boom was almost comical if not for being so frustrating. Every year it was;
Oh drought, we need help. And then without fail....
Oh flooding/frost, we need help. Followed closely by ...
Yipee record profit.
But no investment to deal with the entirely predictable events that happen every year.

Daytr
07-07-2015, 10:32 AM
Unfortunately I think you only have two real leaders amongst the parties at the moment.
One is John Key, can't deny he's not a leader, I just don't like where he is leading us.
The other is Winston Peters, love him or hate him, he's a leader & an extremely durable one.
Little is starting to under impress me more by the day.
So much opportunity for Labour as an opposition but they don't seize it.
Little just doesn't come across as convincing & he really needs to work on his delivery instead of umming are arrring through every sound byte.
Haven't made up my mind about James Shaw, but either way I don't think the duel leader thing works.
I would be more than happy to vote National if they stopped selling & corporatising everything they can lay their hands on & start actively looking after the environment. The environment shouldn't be a left or right issue, but unfortunately its really only the left wing that wants to actively protect the environment & combat climate change. I like Gareth Morgan's idea of a Blue/Green party.

BlackPeter
07-07-2015, 11:21 AM
The environment shouldn't be a left or right issue, but unfortunately its really only the left wing that wants to actively protect the environment & combat climate change. I like Gareth Morgan's idea of a Blue/Green party.

Full-heartedly agree. Don't think however that the Left in New Zealand cares any more about the environment than the Right.

Just look at the roots of the New Zealand Green Party - it is just the stale leftovers of the New Labour Party, the Social Credit Political League and Mana Motuhake who realized that their collection under the Alliance banner was basically unelectable. So they all crawled under the banner of some (at that stage still) idealistic Greenies and basically performed a hostile takeover to steal the brand.

What came are Australian communists, medical specialists from La-La-Land (homeopathy against Ebola - http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11350661), and ethical corruption (Laila Harre even took Green party IP with her when she changed her flag to accommodate the best bidder for her political conscience from Green to Pink (or was it purple - lol).

Greenies in NZ are not green, just left.

Can't wait for the Blue Greens (or just Green would do it).

Daytr
07-07-2015, 11:30 AM
Can't agree with you at all their BP.
The Greens might be a lefty party but they under the likes of Russell Norman had a very Green agenda & challenged National & Labour for that matter on many policies in regards combatting climate change & other environmental issues.
So I think your claim "Greens are not green just left, is completely unfounded & they are green/left party & I just wish national were a blue/green party & right of center, not right of right!

BlackPeter
07-07-2015, 12:29 PM
Can't agree with you at all their BP.
The Greens might be a lefty party but they under the likes of Russell Norman had a very Green agenda & challenged National & Labour for that matter on many policies in regards combatting climate change & other environmental issues.
So I think your claim "Greens are not green just left, is completely unfounded & they are green/left party & I just wish national were a blue/green party & right of center, not right of right!

Hi Daytr - don't take my word for it, check it out yourself:

https://www.greens.org.nz/policy

I counted 29 policies ... and 20 of them have either nothing (or hardly anything) to do with the environment. What features is child poverty, workers rights, Kiwi saver for kids, support for newborns, living conditions, housing, the green party view of what smart innovation would be - and many other non environmental themes.

Now - many of these themes are designed to make them appear nice people - and who would be so heartless to not want well looked after children, workers and families? Wouldn't it be nice to live in paradise - just surrounded by happy children and the smiling Metiria? Lots of fluffy talk and no action, given that they just don't want to take responsibility (longest serving opposition party ever). It is just so much easier for these left dreamers to sit back in the soft opposition benches and point to other peoples mistakes than doing something by themselves.

Not sure either, whether your hit at National is fair. I give you that they do anything to keep Labour out of power ... whether it is good for the country or not. Example - the recent benefit rises ... this makes them perhaps looking stupid, but it certainly does not qualify them as being "right of right"!

Daytr
07-07-2015, 01:03 PM
So you are criticizing the Greens for having all encompassing policy & not just environmental policy?
that doesn't make them less green it just means they are trying to be a fully fledged political party with green policy as their center core value.
Totally agree they are left, but they are also definitely green.
I think you need to visit Spec Savers their BP, I counted 15 of 29 were related directly to green policy.
Anyway the number of policies they have on other things outside the environment hardly means they aren't green it just means there is more to them, whether you like their policy is a different argument.

National have raised the benefit for some, however one policy hardly makes them soft & cuddly. They are also looking to corporatize social welfare, sell state housing, they have sold 49% of the power companies, venture into corporate social bonds for mental health, cut budgets to DOC. All I would say very right wing policy. Given money to fossil fuel and or mining companies & have had an open agenda to open NZ up to more mining & oil & gas. If the EPA wasn't in the way they would have done a lot more as well. Now they want to 'reshape' the EPA as they aren't getting the outcomes they want. Their $25M offer of an R&D grant to TTR for sucking up iron ore off the seabed is an example of their view on the environment. Rip it up if there is a buck in it.

BlackPeter
07-07-2015, 02:34 PM
I think you need to visit Spec Savers their BP, I counted 15 of 29 were related directly to green policy.


It depends how you measure the "Green-ness" of their policies. Hint - not everything is good for the environment, just because some left politicians label it green.



National have raised the benefit for some, however one policy hardly makes them soft & cuddly. They are also looking to corporatize social welfare, sell state housing, they have sold 49% of the power companies, venture into corporate social bonds for mental health, cut budgets to DOC. All I would say very right wing policy. Given money to fossil fuel and or mining companies & have had an open agenda to open NZ up to more mining & oil & gas. If the EPA wasn't in the way they would have done a lot more as well. Now they want to 'reshape' the EPA as they aren't getting the outcomes they want. Their $25M offer of an R&D grant to TTR for sucking up iron ore off the seabed is an example of their view on the environment. Rip it up if there is a buck in it.

Some of these policies I agree with - and others not. What is wrong with selling power companies and state houses, if somebody else can do the job looking after these houses more efficiently? I think making the SOE's public companies is one of the best things which could happen to them (good for everybody) - the public eye drives out corruption and incompetence. Just imagine how healthy Solid Energy could look if they would have been under public scrutiny before splashing hundreds of millions into ventures no sane investor would have agreed to: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10868635

Lets not re-start our discussion around the EPA. If their job is to kill commercial activity in New Zealand, than they are quite effective, though.

But I think we both might fall into the traps of generalisation: I know that there are good and reasonable people working for National (but there are others as well) - and I suppose that there are as well some reasonable people working for the Greens. It's just harder to find them under all that noise ...

Daytr
07-07-2015, 02:53 PM
BP, the EPA approve virtually everything that is put in front of them barring a few obvious declines around a very controversial practice, being seabed mining. What is more efficient when it comes to social policy? Its not all about money, but outcomes. The fact is National advocated the Salvos as their shining example & hadn't even spoken to them! They are now touting around the world for buyers. Do they actually even think these things through before launching ahead? The DOC restructure they did 18 months ago is now being reversed. At what cost? Both financially & at what cost to the department in regards people that left in regards experience?
What is wrong with selling power companies? Higher power prices for NZers to pay shareholders, that's what, although I am less against that as at least they kept 51%, than I am of selling or corporatizing social services.
There are actually plenty of examples overseas where corporatization of government services has gone horribly wrong.
We are going down a US model where multi-nationals own government policy & just in time for the TPPA which will give corporates even more influence. Nope I don't like it, not one bit.
Fix what's broken, don't sell it to someone else.

elZorro
07-07-2015, 05:07 PM
BP, the EPA approve virtually everything that is put in front of them barring a few obvious declines around a very controversial practice, being seabed mining. What is more efficient when it comes to social policy? Its not all about money, but outcomes. The fact is National advocated the Salvos as their shining example & hadn't even spoken to them! They are now touting around the world for buyers. Do they actually even think these things through before launching ahead? The DOC restructure they did 18 months ago is now being reversed. At what cost? Both financially & at what cost to the department in regards people that left in regards experience?
What is wrong with selling power companies? Higher power prices for NZers to pay shareholders, that's what, although I am less against that as at least they kept 51%, than I am of selling or corporatizing social services.
There are actually plenty of examples overseas where corporatization of government services has gone horribly wrong.
We are going down a US model where multi-nationals own government policy & just in time for the TPPA which will give corporates even more influence. Nope I don't like it, not one bit.
Fix what's broken, don't sell it to someone else.

I have to agree daytr. What would labour have done differently over these last seven years?


R&D tax credits for SMEs would have been kept in place. By now hundreds of small businesses would be on an advanced R&D path, some of them would have knocked out new export products within a few months, and surprised themselves.

Kiwibuild would have been started a few years ago, by now there would be less pressure on Auckland and Christchurch house prices, and thousands more school leavers would have been trained in some building trades. Retail would be doing better with this sort of an income boost, and the dole queue would be shorter.

The govt would be receiving more income from their unsold electricity assets, Solid Energy wouldn't be a basket case, the big business end of town would be funding more of their own operational costs and not expecting govt handouts. The wealthy would be paying a bit more tax, and it would be getting redistributed to those who need it the most. Or, it would be getting used on public good works. Our external debt level would be lower, and GDP would be up, along with the enterprise count.

I know all this to be true, because I've looked at the past data for Labour's terms. GFC or no GFC, this National Government doesn't have NZ's best interests at heart.

From NZResources.

8/7/2015 — Economics, Politics and Government
Researcher’s cooler view on GDP
By Simon Hartley
All eyes are focussing on lowering predictions of New Zealand's gross domestic product (GDP) output and the implications of inflation as the dairy downturn continues to bite.
Inflation is well below the bottom of the Reserve Bank's target 1%-3%, barely registering at 0.1%, but concerns are mounting there could be an inflation spike on the way.
BNZ head of research, Stephen Toplis, said many were “scurrying” to lower their GDP expectations, given the plummet in dairy prices, construction activity in Canterbury peaking, with the flow-on impact of both feeding through the wider economy.
“In addition, interest rate expectations are plummeting,” Toplis said.
“The biggest shock to the economy has been the ongoing demise of the dairy sector,” he said.
Because of the further slump in the latest dairy auction price last week and confirmation that the ban on dairy imports into Russia, from the EU, the US and others will continue, Toplis had lowered the BNZ's expected 2015/16 milk price forecast, from $5.70 to $5.20 per kg.
“Unfortunately, downside risks remain. Our forecast is still reliant on some pricing recovery over the next 12 months,” he said.
Toplis said the BNZ's GDP forecasts were already on the pessimistic side of consensus, and lower than the Reserve Bank's.
He is forecasting annual average GDP growth of 2.4% for calendar 2015, following a 3.3% increase in 2014, and over the next two years, forecast growth averaging 2.1%.
The income effect of the dairy decline feeds through to the wider economy, adversely impacting private consumption, investment and Government revenues.
“So, while agriculture production is not significantly impacted other parts of GDP most definitely are,” he said.
In part, the demise of dairy will be having an impact on economy-wide confidence “and it's not only agriculture where this shows up. There is a notable softening in construction expectations as the contribution to growth from the residential component of the Christchurch rebuild begins to peak,” Toplis said.
We have been warning for some time now that there was a very real chance that GDP growth would falter, the NZ$ would respond, and that the falling dollar might create an inflation problem, even as economic activity diminished.
“In our opinion, this process is now well in train,'' Toplis said.
As at the Reserve Bank's last monetary policy statement, inflation was already forecast to rise to the mid-point of the bank's target band - 1%-3%.
He said the recent slump in the exchange rate must surely push that forecast higher. The Reserve Bank had its work cut out, given the risks around GDP growth falling to zero while coinciding with the possibility that inflation heads to 3% - and that was before it has to consider the impact of the booming housing market.
*Simon Hartley is senior business reporter and assistant chief reporter for the Otago Daily Times.

elZorro
08-07-2015, 07:00 AM
I agree with the intent of the National govt's latest fanfare drive for more R&D investment in NZ, but not how they propose to do it.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11477081&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Wednesday+8 +July+2015

It appears to me that they are saying: all you overseas people and companies that are wanting to do R&D, forsake your own country, come over here while we are in the midst of what looks like the start of a recession, and we'll have a deal for you. Meanwhile they have held the tax rates at the top end, down. They have also offered $885mill of R&D funding grants to 50 or so big businesses already trading here in some fashion. Some of them are overseas listed companies.

Yeah, well Labour had an R&D model that was similar to Australia, and it was all about large and small businesses taking control of their own R&D, and getting a small tax incentive at the end of the financial year. It wasn't expensive, it was audited, it meant local companies would generally keep any profits that resulted, and it would have grown the workforce capacity well. National scrapped it, and now seven years down the track they seem to be openly admitting that they have to do better with their R&D policy.

Steven Joyce, he's the big money man, the fixit man. Well get on with it, let's see how you go. Sounds like a lot of @rap if you ask me.

Daytr
08-07-2015, 08:00 AM
National re-affirmed their negligence in regards tackling climate change by watering down their emissions targets substantially & kicking the can down the road pushing the target out further & the target on emissions itself lower than they previously promised.
Weak ! This government doesn't care & I believe doesn't even believe in climate change, otherwise they would actually be doing something about it right now & not just looking like maybe doing something in the future. Pathetic!

Bjauck
08-07-2015, 08:03 AM
Yep I agree Craic, (think that's a first!)
In saying that its Euro that keeps giving them handouts & will provide more if the y reform.
They wont reform, so don't give them another cent & write the debt off.
Only way forward in my view & both parties will be better off. (in the long run)

The pitfalls of linking a traditionally weak currency country (Greece) with a currency dominated by a big traditionally strong currency country (Germany). Efficient German industries can dominate as their goods no longer become more expensive by virtue of a devaluing drachma. A win for Germany because of the common currency. Under freedom of travel, young Greeks move to Germany (and other EU nations) leaving a population more and more dominated by pensioners and beneficiaries, which creates a further decline in production and tax raising efforts. A win for Germany (& others) as it makes use of the (cheap) migrant labour to boost its economy and tax revenues to help pay its own pensioners. Now it is payback time for all these advantages accrued over the years to Germany and the Northern Euro countries. There is a cost for establishing a currency for political reasons.

BlackPeter
08-07-2015, 09:08 AM
The pitfalls of linking a traditionally weak currency country (Greece) with a currency dominated by a big traditionally strong currency country (Germany). Efficient German industries can dominate as their goods no longer become more expensive by virtue of a devaluing drachma. A win for Germany because of the common currency. Under freedom of travel, young Greeks move to Germany (and other EU nations) leaving a population more and more dominated by pensioners and beneficiaries, which creates a further decline in production and tax raising efforts. A win for Germany (& others) as it makes use of the (cheap) migrant labour to boost its economy and tax revenues to help pay its own pensioners. Now it is payback time for all these advantages accrued over the years to Germany and the Northern Euro countries. There is a cost for establishing a currency for political reasons.

No need to become emotional. Yes, the Germans had unquestionable some benefits from being allowed to use a currency depressed by a bunch of people who prefer to live off other peoples income than making their own hands dirty. The Germans paid as well a quite high price for it - they "own" the lion's share of the basically unrecoverable Greek debts. No need for them to throw more money into a bottomless barrel.

There is as well a price to pay for driving your country for political reasons into the abyss as the Greek left wing is currently doing. Obviously - at the end of the day it was the British who trained these Marxist playboys in economy: the latest Greek finance minister (Tsakalotos) graduated in Oxford - lol. Ah yes - and the idiot running the Greek ministry of finance the couple of months before (Varoufakis) graduated in Essex. Not a good look for the British Education system - maybe they should refund their study fees - looks like they didn't learn enough.

Some soft skills as well as learning the need to prepare for crucial meeting should be a basic requirement for politicians - but Tsakalotos appeared to the last crisis meeting in Brussels even without notes. He just remembered that the greek people voted Oxi ...

Ah yes - but I forgot, both are communists. Communists don't work, they suck other peoples hard earned money ... until it runs out.

Daytr
08-07-2015, 10:15 AM
BP, is the US therefore communist? Seems by your definition of sucking other peoples money they could well be. I refer to the US tax payer of course, but it could be Japan or Europe. Not that I back communism by any means, but a balance between capitalism & socialist policies, i.e. creating a center seems to me the only model that probably works. i.e. take the best from both. Extreme capitalism of the likes we have seen in the US certainly doesn't work & can the blame for the last eight years of the GFC can squarely be placed at the feet of the masters of the universe on Wall St & the likes of Greenspan who allowed it to happen.

BlackPeter
08-07-2015, 10:26 AM
BP, is the US therefore communist? Seems by your definition of sucking other peoples money they could well be. I refer to the US tax payer of course, but it could be Japan or Europe. Not that I back communism by any means, but a balance between capitalism & socialist policies, i.e. creating a center seems to me the only model that probably works. i.e. take the best from both. Extreme capitalism of the likes we have seen in the US certainly doesn't work & can the blame for the last eight years of the GFC can squarely be placed at the feet of the masters of the universe on Wall St & the likes of Greenspan who allowed it to happen.

Not sure which comment you are referring to ... but if it was the recent one - I didn't refer to their behaviour - however both recent Greek Finance ministers are members of Syriza (Coalition of the Radical Left) and both are part of its Marxist wing. Whats wrong with calling them communists? I tend to call a spade a spade.

Bjauck
08-07-2015, 10:27 AM
...at the end of the day it was the British who trained these Marxist playboys in economy: the latest Greek finance minister (Tsakalotos) graduated in Oxford - lol. Ah yes - and the idiot running the Greek ministry of finance the couple of months before (Varoufakis) graduated in Essex. Not a good look for the British Education system - maybe they should refund their study fees - looks like they didn't learn enough... That is baffling. Let's put to one side the fact that we are having this discussion courtesy of the work of an Oxonian Alumnus, Tim Berners-Lee. Also the fact that the British kept well out of the Euro in the first place...

Amongst former Oxford Alumni: right wingers such as current Prime Ministers Abbott and Cameron went to Oxford.

I won't mention Stephen Hawking :)

BlackPeter
08-07-2015, 10:38 AM
That is baffling. Let's put to one side the fact that we are having this discussion courtesy of the work of an Oxonian Alumnus, Tim Berners-Lee. Also the fact that the British kept well out of the Euro in the first place...

Amongst former Oxford Alumni: right wingers such as current Prime Ministers Abbott and Cameron went to Oxford.

I won't mention Stephen Hawking :)

Ouch - I didn't say that the British Education System is unable to produce great minds (I am a fan of Steven Hawking) ... just said that it seemed to have failed a row of Greek Finance ministers. I guess never mind their believe systems, but they are behaving just unprofessional.

craic
08-07-2015, 10:45 AM
An education system is primarily designed to teach people how to think, not what to think.

fungus pudding
08-07-2015, 10:49 AM
An education system is primarily designed to teach people how to think, not what to think.


Except it's not.

Daytr
08-07-2015, 11:00 AM
Plenty of commies came out of Cambridge in the 1930s... ;-)

BP, here's your quote. "Communists don't work, they suck other peoples hard earned money ... until it runs out. "
Well the first part is completely wrong, just ask a billion plus Chinese. The 2nd part is where you could be referring to the US or now Europe.
Using taxpayer's money to bail out banks & boost shareholder returns to the wealthy. Actually that's not communism at all, that's just screwing the taxpayer! ;-)

BlackPeter
08-07-2015, 11:11 AM
Plenty of commies came out of Cambridge in the 1930s... ;-)

BP, here's your quote. "Communists don't work, they suck other peoples hard earned money ... until it runs out. "
Well the first part is completely wrong, just ask a billion plus Chinese. The 2nd part is where you could be referring to the US or now Europe.
Using taxpayer's money to bail out banks & boost shareholder returns to the wealthy. Actually that's not communism at all, that's just screwing the taxpayer! ;-)

Granted - if you take (as you did) my quote out of context than it looks wrong. I withdraw and apologise to anybody who might have been offended.

I never meant to refer to people living under a system which calls itself communist (like e.g. China - on of the most capitalist dictatorships I know of), but I was referring to people subscribing to the ideas of the communist manifesto according to Karl Marx ... after realizing that it does not work given the way real humans operate ...

Daytr
08-07-2015, 11:19 AM
So were you saying communism doesn't work? Or that communists don't work? Very different meanings.
Thatcher was implying they don't actually work and rely on others to pay their way which is utter nonsense.
She put most of them out of work! haha

BlackPeter
08-07-2015, 11:46 AM
So were you saying communism doesn't work? Or that communists don't work? Very different meanings.
Thatcher was implying they don't actually work and rely on others to pay their way which is utter nonsense.
She put most of them out of work! haha

That communism doesn't work is blatantly obvious. Referring to communists ... I guess there are lazy as well as hard working people in any believe system and / or religion (which communism basically is). However - a system which rewards lazy people over hard working people by paying everybody the same rewards obviously attracts more of the lazy category - simple rule of the market.

Similar situation as with the Catholic church - a job which (at least used to) give easy and trusted access to vulnerable children used to attract an unproportional high number of pedophiles.

Daytr
08-07-2015, 12:02 PM
Mate re the Catholic church & pedophiles, that's a very long bow you are drawing there & has no relevance. I wont even go there as its quite ridiculous in relation to the topic at hand.

Your rule applies to both extremes.
A system that rewards crooks & greed will only encourage more crooks & more greed.
And unfortunately that's the path National is taking us down.
A US model that is flawed in regards corporate ownership of government policy, greed & corruption.
Some of these companies openly profit from war.
Not so long ago you would have been hung for that.

BlackPeter
08-07-2015, 12:50 PM
Your rule applies to both extremes.
A system that rewards crooks & greed will only encourage more crooks & more greed.
And unfortunately that's the path National is taking us down.
A US model that is flawed in regards corporate ownership of government policy, greed & corruption.
Some of these companies openly profit from war.
Not so long ago you would have been hung for that.

Whow ... and you are telling me I am drawing a long bow?

Crooks (and greed) are unfortunately resident in all political systems - just one of the less desirable human traits. Some of the worst murderers and crooks I can think of have been communist (like Stalin, Mao Zedong, Ulbricht) - but yes, they are not alone ... Mugabe, Hitler, Milosevic and many others are or have been clearly of the same calibre. Putin is on the way to join them ... All of them are responsible for killing many thousands and most of them for killing millions of innocent people. Crime does not know political colours.

Mentioning National (or any other democratic western party) in this context is clearly a gross misjudgement of yours - surely you can't be be that ideological blinded - can you?

BTW - who would have hung me for what? Could you enlarge a bit more on this subject ... sounds like I might have an interest in this subject.

Daytr
08-07-2015, 03:53 PM
I wasn't referring to murderous dictators or regimes, I was referring to capitalist greed at its extreme where bankers & the likes are allowed to get away with fleecing billions in the markets. How many went to jail from the GFC or for the bank manipulation in markets? Its you who made the leap to murder etc. so its your bow your drawing, not mine. You can probably add G W Bush to the list as well while you are at it though.
And its not a long bow in that regard where National are leading us. Down a path of corporatization of government services ala the US where corporations have massive influence if not control of government policy to benefit themselves. In fact its very relevant.

winner69
08-07-2015, 05:02 PM
EZ, a government surplus

Perception is reality after all.

No broken promises.

All fine on the western front as they say

Spose Lab need to talk about real things now?

elZorro
08-07-2015, 06:15 PM
EZ, a government surplus

Perception is reality after all.

No broken promises.

All fine on the western front as they say

Spose Lab need to talk about real things now?

Ok, but it's only for 11 months (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/278232/higher-surplus-than-forecast), I'm surprised they managed to get even close, let alone a surplus. Imagine the spreadsheet columns that will have been juggled around to help make this happen.:t_down:

I have been meaning to take a look at the Treasury figures for the tax take, this shows up the spikes from prov tax, it'll be really interesting for the next few months. One has to dig the data out of their spreadsheets, but it's there.

Here it is, the historical tax outturn data from Treasury. Each month the tax figures come in and are collated, refunds taken off, and the final accurate figure is the consolidated tax. I've charted each month since they did it a certain way, from sometime in 2002. See the dip from the GFC, this is when National came to office. Whatever changes they made to the tax dates, now it's much more peaky than it was. There are now two tall peaks close together, followed by a big dip. We're heading for one of those in June 2015, as the last point is from May 2015, just announced. So since there is a few billion dollars difference between a peak and a low, it's no wonder National were cunning enough to have a press release now. There might not be enough spare surplus from 11 months to cover the 12 months. That would be sad.

elZorro
09-07-2015, 06:44 AM
David Hargreaves seems to be thinking the same as me on the new R&D policy, but has developed it further. Read the comments, it gets worse.

http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/76422/david-hargreaves-not-impressed-governments-new-investment-attraction-strategy?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+9+ July+2015

Daytr
09-07-2015, 07:36 AM
I would suggest that 2016 & 17 will be the ones to watch in regards who will be forming the next government.

National's relaxation of bio boarder controls causes another dangerous immigrant to reach our shores & in this case I believe supermarket shelves?
Poisonous spiders this time! When are they going to learn ?
National are putting at risk NZs almost unique position of not having the nasties (things that can kill you!) that the other world has, let alone the risk to our horticultural industry with the recent infestations of fruit fly.
Irresponsible government.

winner69
09-07-2015, 09:05 AM
EZ, In the UK the Conservatives have just portrayed themselves as the [B]party of working people [B]by declaring in last nights Budget that a living wage will be introduced from next year. (£7.20 an hour for people over the age of 25)

Jeez, conservatives looking after the needy. The last NZ budget had things one wouldn't expect from National as well

Do you sense CT behind this 'change of heart' in the UK and NZ?

If Nats become the party of the working people where's Labour going to position themselves?

(Even the Conservatives in the UK don't seem to mind hijacking Labour policy from the last election)

BlackPeter
09-07-2015, 09:08 AM
I can't help but finding the above collection of bad and foul mouthing of everything NZ depressing. EZ, looks like you finally managed to infect daytr. Pity that.

I guess what I don't understand is your strategy of how you guys (and presumably gals) on the Left ever want to change the government? Can you give me some good examples where the people have been that stupid that they voted for the bad-mouthers? Nobody likes Cassandra, not even the people of Sparta.

If you want (I am sure, the Lefties don't) to look at a bit more balanced view of our current economic situation - Great (and balanced) expert opinions in today's press: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/7006...dailyheadlines

Our current economic situation is not too bad it looks, but sure - there are always issues and threads. Just don't understand why the people who are desperately trying to talk us into a crisis think that anybody would want them to run the country after they talked it down (if they manage to do that).

Daytr, you claim from time to time that you are not a Leftie ... but funnily you seem to think that the government is responsible for everything. And hey - at the end this is what being left is all about. The individual is responsible for nothing and the government for everything. The government has to feed and nourish neglected children, the government has to pay the poor (no matter why they are poor), the government gives and takes. It is responsible for any economic crisis anywhere in the world - and apparently as well for any biothreat which might enter our isolated shores. I guess the government is as well responsible for NZ farmers extorting their own land due to ridiculous biosecurity restrictions (did anybody notice that milk and cheese hardly came down in price despite the international milk price in the doldrums - this is the flip side of biosecurity).

I guess it would all be funny, if it wouldn't be better for our country to have an effective and respectable opposition contributing to solving the countries issues and capable of taking over the reigns. Unfortunately - if what the Lefties on this thread are producing is representative for the quality of our opposition, than I am afraid we will have to live for a long time with a National led government.

elZorro
09-07-2015, 11:59 AM
I can't help but finding the above collection of bad and foul mouthing of everything NZ depressing. EZ, looks like you finally managed to infect daytr. Pity that.

I guess what I don't understand is your strategy of how you guys (and presumably gals) on the Left ever want to change the government? Can you give me some good examples where the people have been that stupid that they voted for the bad-mouthers? Nobody likes Cassandra, not even the people of Sparta.

If you want (I am sure, the Lefties don't) to look at a bit more balanced view of our current economic situation - Great (and balanced) expert opinions in today's press: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/7006...dailyheadlines

Our current economic situation is not too bad it looks, but sure - there are always issues and threads. Just don't understand why the people who are desperately trying to talk us into a crisis think that anybody would want them to run the country after they talked it down (if they manage to do that).

Daytr, you claim from time to time that you are not a Leftie ... but funnily you seem to think that the government is responsible for everything. And hey - at the end this is what being left is all about. The individual is responsible for nothing and the government for everything. The government has to feed and nourish neglected children, the government has to pay the poor (no matter why they are poor), the government gives and takes. It is responsible for any economic crisis anywhere in the world - and apparently as well for any biothreat which might enter our isolated shores. I guess the government is as well responsible for NZ farmers extorting their own land due to ridiculous biosecurity restrictions (did anybody notice that milk and cheese hardly came down in price despite the international milk price in the doldrums - this is the flip side of biosecurity).

I guess it would all be funny, if it wouldn't be better for our country to have an effective and respectable opposition contributing to solving the countries issues and capable of taking over the reigns. Unfortunately - if what the Lefties on this thread are producing is representative for the quality of our opposition, than I am afraid we will have to live for a long time with a National led government.

Just admit it BP, you'd vote National no matter what. What the Left are trying to say, is that the government should give direction to the economy, and run the affairs of the state as required. They shouldn't run the country in a way that increases inequality and unemployment. Yes, National gave some money to those on benefits, but at the same time they made it a rule for caregivers on benefits with children all over 3 years, to go out and look for work. It was just an accounting change, that's all.

Daytr
09-07-2015, 12:28 PM
BP, yesterday you were jumping from pedophiles to mass murderers. At least today's leaps aren't so extreme.
I have never said that the government should be responsible for everything, but I do believe the government is responsible for good social policy & that does not involve flogging it off, or corporatizing its services, well not things like mental health anyway.
National have relaxed bio-security at our boarders. Fact.
Since then we have had one very major scare in Auckland, two minor ones & this latest scare that I can recall.
Should we look the other way and say she'll be right Jake! Hell no.
Many times I have given alternatives, not just criticisms in regards government policy & even the odd time congratulated National on a few things.
As I said, I would happily vote a Keyless National if they were a far more moderate party that actually cared about the environment & put policy in place that allowed all NZers to flourish instead of the already well to do.
So like yesterday your posts are completely unfounded.
Yes I want the current National government out & I would much rather have a labour coalition voted in, hopefully with NZF, the Maori party & perhaps the Greens. But that view is far more about being strongly anti John Key's National than being left wing as if there was a slightly right of center party that viewed the environment & climate change seriously, then they would happily get my vote.

Lets face it National have had a horror show in 2015, from the whole Mike Sabin thing to losing Northland, ponytail gate, sheepgate and now the economy is looking dodgy as well. Shame they have borrowed to the hilt & not saved anything from the dairy boom for the up & coming down turn.

So perhaps rather than playing the man as you just have done, try & defend any of the above.
There's plenty more...
All National have shown they can do, is build motorways (real clever!) borrow huge amounts of money & sell stuff.
I really can't understand how the debt has continued to rise when they have sold billions of dollars worth of assets.
Now it looks like we will need to borrow more to stimulate the economy. Great!

BlackPeter
09-07-2015, 03:11 PM
Hi Daytr, no need for me to defend National - actually I didn't vote for them :p ... and yes, some things they do are good, some things could be better and some things are bad. Just a bunch of more or less gifted politicians trying most of the time to do there best (agreed - and their are exceptions like our common friend Judith ... but than every party has their black sheep ...). I just wish I could say the same about our current lot of opposition parties (referring to "trying to do their best"" ...lots of black sheep in Labour and Green).

Hi EZ - if you check, than you will find a number of hints in this thread that I don't always vote for National (hint - last election my vote went to ACT ... and I used to vote earlier as well for Liberal parties (like United, before it turned into a one-man band) and for the Green party (at a time when the environment was still one of their priorities). If you don't believe me, than this is your problem, not mine.

Did you ever vote for anything else like Labour :D?

Daytr
09-07-2015, 03:37 PM
I don't like the term black sheep, but National has plenty of bad apples & not just Crusher.
Act had that clown leading them who didn't get into parliament.
Wow, ACT that explains a lot. Thought their political philosophy where the market solves all would have been buried with the credit crunch & resulting GFC. Greenspan thought the same. Now seems he was wrong and he even admits he got it wrong.
Shame it created a global meltdown of epic proportions.


Hi Daytr, no need for me to defend National - actually I didn't vote for them :p ... and yes, some things they do are good, some things could be better and some things are bad. Just a bunch of more or less gifted politicians trying most of the time to do there best (agreed - and their are exceptions like our common friend Judith ... but than every party has their black sheep ...). I just wish I could say the same about our current lot of opposition parties (referring to "trying to do their best"" ...lots of black sheep in Labour and Green).

Hi EZ - if you check, than you will find a number of hints in this thread that I don't always vote for National (hint - last election my vote went to ACT ... and I used to vote earlier as well for Liberal parties (like United, before it turned into a one-man band) and for the Green party (at a time when the environment was still one of their priorities). If you don't believe me, than this is your problem, not mine.

Did you ever vote for anything else like Labour :D?

winner69
09-07-2015, 06:34 PM
EZ, Listener caption competition this week

What would your caption be?

(Looks like every man and his dog went to Apia this week ...at taxpayers expense ?)

elZorro
09-07-2015, 08:21 PM
Hi Daytr, no need for me to defend National - actually I didn't vote for them :p ... and yes, some things they do are good, some things could be better and some things are bad. Just a bunch of more or less gifted politicians trying most of the time to do there best (agreed - and their are exceptions like our common friend Judith ... but than every party has their black sheep ...). I just wish I could say the same about our current lot of opposition parties (referring to "trying to do their best"" ...lots of black sheep in Labour and Green).

Hi EZ - if you check, than you will find a number of hints in this thread that I don't always vote for National (hint - last election my vote went to ACT ... and I used to vote earlier as well for Liberal parties (like United, before it turned into a one-man band) and for the Green party (at a time when the environment was still one of their priorities). If you don't believe me, than this is your problem, not mine.

Did you ever vote for anything else like Labour :D?

Yep, I voted National for quite a while, until I began to see that Labour's terms from 1999 were shaping NZ in a better way. I didn't like the turmoil of the 80's, maybe we had to go through some of it. But I did figure that if you didn't vote National recently, it'd be ACT. Yeah, good-oh.

elZorro
09-07-2015, 08:24 PM
EZ, Listener caption competition this week

What would your caption be?

(Looks like every man and his dog went to Apia this week ...at taxpayers expense ?)

What about "Labour returning to focus for 2017"

More short-term advice from Treasury, let's close KiwiRail and save some expenses?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/70115591/treasury-urged-government-to-consider-closing-most-of-kiwirail?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+10+J uly+2015

Except that's a recipe for traffic bedlam on the motorways and highways, increased wear on roading surfaces, and a downscaling of NZ's economy. At a time when there are more people immigrating here, and adding to the population. Should we all just take a pay or earnings cut now?

KiwiRail sought assurance from the government that they had at least two years of funding available, for medium-term planning. When that money goes into KiwiRail, it goes out as wages, taxes, payments to other businesses, it goes round. And a good part of it ends up in the govt coffers anyway. I'm not sure how Treasury ended up with those net social loss numbers.

BlackPeter
10-07-2015, 04:04 PM
EZ, Listener caption competition this week

What would your caption be?

(Looks like every man and his dog went to Apia this week ...at taxpayers expense ?)

Little: Eureka ... I've got a new idea - we could put a tax on rugby competitions .... and the best thing is that the taxpayer is paying for me being here. If we introduce this tax than we can spend the tax payer dollar twice ... I am a genius!
Key: Grr - does Labour always need to outperform us? And we thought that the arrival tax was already a brilliant idea ...

winner69
10-07-2015, 04:20 PM
This from Matt Nolan on interest.co.nz

Things thar better hanatbthe turn of the century. Spose we can credit both Labour and National for all these good things that have happened. Makes me think not really much difference between the two ...just how has the prettiest face or the aura to be a PM decides which party governs.

Or maybe its all Peter's and Winston's doing.

The 10 great things that are better

1. We’re richer
2. We don’t have to work as long to afford the same bundle of goods
3. Absolute poverty is being defeated
4. “Necessities” take up a smaller part of our income
5. We are living longer
6. We have the opportunity to see the rest of the world
7. We have greater access to the internet/new consumer technology
8. Total criminal offence numbers keep falling
9. Discrimination is in retreat: Sex wage gap
10. Discrimination is in retreat: Sexual orientation


http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/76450/matt-nolan-takes-look-top-10-things-have-improved-turn-millennium

BlackPeter
10-07-2015, 04:39 PM
Act had that clown leading them who didn't get into parliament.
Wow, ACT that explains a lot. Thought their political philosophy where the market solves all would have been buried with the credit crunch & resulting GFC. Greenspan thought the same. Now seems he was wrong and he even admits he got it wrong.
Shame it created a global meltdown of epic proportions.

Nothing wrong with Jamie White ... he is not just an outstanding analyst, thinker and economist, he is as well honest ...

But yes - I do see the difference to the from you supported Northland member ... Winston is a populist who loves to feature in the months prior to any election xenophobic ideas (http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/tag/xenophobia) ... and if he can't find any foreign buyer of NZ property he can crucify, than he even makes them up http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11207350; If that's a politician to your heart, than I guess you got the member you deserve ...

BTW - David Seymour is currently leading ACT.

Agree however that ACT had prior to Jamie a less good hand in selecting their party leaders (and some might consider this as an understatement) - too much dead wood and outworn National politicians: Brash, Banks. Prebble used to be o.k.

More importantly however - when did you last look at their policies? Hey - here are some ideas how to keep the economy going:

http://www.act.org.nz/policies

Less red tape / less government / better education system .. and hey - ACT is at current the only party brave enough to state that our current superannuation schema is not sustainable - and proposing to do something about it.

You should support them ...

Daytr
10-07-2015, 08:42 PM
I would suggest there is nothing outstanding about his analysis & that it is very flawed. I saw him interviewed on a number of occasions during the election including the one in his own home. His idea that markets on their own will dictate better outcomes or self correct wrongs or come to a balance is extremely naïve. He came across as very arrogant & had very little compassion. Not someone I would associate with.
Either way he's become a political dinosaur, even before he learnt to walk & that's a good thing.
ACT didn't poll so well & the only reason they have a seat at all is that it was gifted by National.
They aren't the only party that want to tackle superannuation, Labour put in place Kiwi Save & the Cullen Fund both things that National have either stopped funding or changed for the worse.
Less red tape, easy one liner that has no substance. Red tape can be good, can be bad, but quite often its in place to reign in reckless behavior.

Just because someone wants to reduce in immigration, you put a xenophobic label on them.
Labels are easy & poor debate.
It makes good common sense to reduce immigration at a time when infrastructure is creaking & property prices are out of control in Auckland & many Kiwis have decided to return home due to the global economy.
I for one don't want to live in a more populous country.
That's one of the things I love about NZ, its not overcrowded. But I suppose I must be xenophobic as well...

BlackPeter
11-07-2015, 10:26 AM
Just because someone wants to reduce in immigration, you put a xenophobic label on them.
Labels are easy & poor debate.
It makes good common sense to reduce immigration at a time when infrastructure is creaking & property prices are out of control in Auckland & many Kiwis have decided to return home due to the global economy.
I for one don't want to live in a more populous country.
That's one of the things I love about NZ, its not overcrowded. But I suppose I must be xenophobic as well...

I don't put a label on Winston Peters - he is very capable on doing that by himself, every time he draws the race card. More than 60.000 hits on Google on "Winston Peters" combined with "xenophobia".

Looking at managing immigration ... Sure - nothing wrong with an intelligent debate about it and a long term strategy. However - it is one of these things you can't just switch on and off like a tap of water. It takes typically years for people to consider whether they want to migrate at all - and than 2 to 3 years between starting to select their new "home countries" to arriving at their new shores. I know what I am talking about - went through this process (several decades ago) myself - and no matter what your race - either you or some of your forebears did at some stage the same, otherwise you wouldn't be here.

This means - immigration is a process which needs to be managed with sensibility (humans are involved) and with long term goals in mind. Similar to superannuation. If you really want to manage immigration, than you need to look at at least 5 year cycles to ramp up / ramp down the immigration stream. And even then - you can't really change rules retrospectively - and btw - the biggest immigration stream over the recent years was returning Kiwis. Oh - did Winston forget to mention that? Ah well - he is not interested in managing anything - he is just drawing the race card prior to every election to attract an inherently racist part of the population. Winston just wants to return for another 3 years to the trough ... and he does not really care where his votes are coming from.

So - why should we care? Well - both of us live here already legally (well, I do - and I assume you do as well), so why should we care if populist politicians stop the immigration flow? Now, there are a number of reasons (and fairness being only one of them). The inconvenient truth is that NZ (and particular its high tech business) wouldn't be able to survive without foreign subject matter experts, like e.g. scientists and software and other engineers coming from overseas. Just talk with any HR manager of one of our tech stocks. Our medical system would crash without foreign doctors and nurses. Our universities are good, but they just don't produce enough graduates in the areas where our economy urgently need specialists.

I used to work for a NZ high tech company winning export awards for many years. About 2/3rd's of the engineering staff (several hundred people) were recruited from overseas - we just couldn't get enough qualified people in NZ. People like Winston made it more difficult to recruit high quality staff from overseas. They hear what's going on over here - and hey, they do have options. They don't need to come to NZ, but can pick as well friendlier shores.

Politicians like Winston do damage the NZ brand - basically every time they open their mouth. Thats whats wrong with them.

Daytr
11-07-2015, 01:42 PM
You are confused, and not for the first time.
Reducing immigration is not drawing a race card. A massive and unfair generalization.
We could have far better criteria than just having a million bucks to sink into the Auckland property market.
Well with people like you spreading these types of generalisations no doubt you get hits.
And all that actually means is there are 60k hits of Winston Peters AND Xenophobia so they could be quite independent from each other & come up in a google search. I see you follow your previous leader's naïve approach to things if you think that sort of analysis or 'research' has any qualitative factor.
Winston Peters has been in parliament longer than anyone else and has done a hell of a lot for this country and kept a lot of people honest over the years. Perhaps you have forgotten the wine-box scandal. I haven't and he was bloody well right. You have criticized others for just being negative & knockers & what are you doing here about the longest serving MP in the country. He has given service to this country over decades and that shouldn't just be side swiped at with innuendo or mass generalisations. Many criticize him from jumping parties and coalition partners etc. Perhaps check out Winston Churchill's political career & how many times he jumped ship. Its because he had backbone & lives by his convictions & not just the political flavour of the day & stay with a party no matter what their politics or policy. He's not perfect, but who is & over 40 years in politics you will have a few blemishes, who wouldn't. Unfortunately that's all some people want to remember. He also at age 69 just overthrew the biggest majority in NZs political history. Not a bad achievement in my book, perhaps your man could have learnt a few things from him.

In regards immigration, you do what is right for the country, you don't do nothing, as National have done & yes Kiwis are returning, so don't ignore that, adjust immigration accordingly. There will always be room to bring in talent on sponsored visas if they cannot get local talent. And no one is suggesting turning off the tap completely but adjust it when its required. For those who have already made an application, they are in the system, but it doesn't mean you need to keep accepting the same amount of applications going forward. If it changes back in future where Kiwis take flight in numbers again, you can adjust it back up if need be. Quite simple really.

Humans are involved apparently & here I was thinking we were talking about fruit flies or perhaps poisonous spiders. Sorry getting confused they come in freely without any paperwork. ;-)

BlackPeter
11-07-2015, 05:04 PM
You are confused, and not for the first time.


You are playing the man - not the ball ... and not for the first time ...



Winston Peters has been in parliament longer than anyone else and has done a hell of a lot for this country and kept a lot of people honest over the years. Perhaps you have forgotten the wine-box scandal. I haven't and he was bloody well right. You have criticized others for just being negative & knockers & what are you doing here about the longest serving MP in the country. He has given service to this country over decades and that shouldn't just be side swiped at with innuendo or mass generalisations. Many criticize him from jumping parties and coalition partners etc. Perhaps check out Winston Churchill's political career & how many times he jumped ship. Its because he had backbone & lives by his convictions & not just the political flavour of the day & stay with a party no matter what their politics or policy. He's not perfect, but who is & over 40 years in politics you will have a few blemishes, who wouldn't. Unfortunately that's all some people want to remember. He also at age 69 just overthrew the biggest majority in NZs political history. Not a bad achievement in my book, perhaps your man could have learnt a few things from him.


Give me a break ... maybe a worthwhile proposal to pope Francis to get him canonized? Just a thought. Yes, I remember the winebox scandal - and yes, he did good at that time. However 25 years or so have past since then. Not much good did he deliver after that (I have mixed feelings re the gold card ...) - and hey - he must feel very appropriately rewarded by the right to receive not just an outstanding pension schema for MP's plus NZ super but have as well the opportunity to use his own personal gold card ...




In regards immigration, you do what is right for the country, you don't do nothing, as National have done & yes Kiwis are returning, so don't ignore that, adjust immigration accordingly. There will always be room to bring in talent on sponsored visas if they cannot get local talent. And no one is suggesting turning off the tap completely but adjust it when its required. For those who have already made an application, they are in the system, but it doesn't mean you need to keep accepting the same amount of applications going forward. If it changes back in future where Kiwis take flight in numbers again, you can adjust it back up if need be. Quite simple really.


Should NZ have a proper debate about immigration? Absolutely! And I do recognise that there are a number of benefits as well as drawbacks to immigration. Is Winston the right man to run this discussion? Certainly not. More important however - this is not the stuff to raise 4 weeks prior to the election and then forget (until the next election) - this is something we should have a good discussion about once - and then agree on a immigration policy everybody can rely on.

Maybe we should include in this discussion whether we want to allow the 1 million plus overseas Kiwis to return at will - and whether it is sensible to keep an open door for all 16 million Aussies who could stand tomorrow in front of our door, buy our houses and suck our social systems empty. Is this all a good idea? I don't know. Maybe we should discuss, whether we have already too many Dutch people (not picking here on the Dutch - just replace with any other European nationality) on board - why is it always just the Asians who seem to buy "our" houses?

Make no mistake - Winston does not want to develop a good immigration policy - it would be even detrimental for him. Winston lives of people's fear - (somebody might buy my house or take my job or ...) and it is always easy to direct this fear at another group of people - particularly if they look a bit different to the standard Kiwi bloke.


Humans are involved apparently & here I was thinking we were talking about fruit flies or perhaps poisonous spiders. Sorry getting confused they come in freely without any paperwork. ;-)
I guess I will avoid to use the opportunity to comment on your standards. Winston's influence - is it?

westerly
11-07-2015, 05:55 PM
Nothing wrong with Jamie White ... he is not just an outstanding analyst, thinker and economist, he is as well honest ...

But yes - I do see the difference to the from you supported Northland member ... Winston is a populist who loves to feature in the months prior to any election xenophobic ideas (http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/tag/xenophobia) ... and if he can't find any foreign buyer of NZ property he can crucify, than he even makes them up http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11207350; If that's a politician to your heart, than I guess you got the member you deserve ...

BTW - David Seymour is currently leading ACT.

Agree however that ACT had prior to Jamie a less good hand in selecting their party leaders (and some might consider this as an understatement) - too much dead wood and outworn National politicians: Brash, Banks. Prebble used to be o.k.

More importantly however - when did you last look at their policies? Hey - here are some ideas how to keep the economy going:

http://www.act.org.nz/policies

Less red tape / less government / better education system .. and hey - ACT is at current the only party brave enough to state that our current superannuation schema is not sustainable - and proposing to do something about it.

You should support them ...

Seymour is only there because Key did to his own party candidate, what Labour did to it's candidate in Northland. Labour copped a lot more flak from the media and right wing blogs though.
Act is a joke with policies favouring the well off against the majority. Their superannuation policy is nebulous apart from saying provide for yourself.
Meanwhile Key with his cohort of stale ministers (McCull, Smith, Carter, Brownlee etc.) while slyly implementing neo-liberal policies tries to make out they are a centre party with token attempts at
social justice usually following strong media publicity. (insulating rentals a case in point} and replying to a later post,
As a first option for any imagined slight it is easy to draw the race card and a gift to media always on the lookout for easy headlines.
Winston echoes the thoughts of many average New Zealanders and those with family generations going back 150 years in NZ could be forgiven for being annoyed at the “ we are all immigrants” trotted out on a regular basis. Maoris would also possibly raise an eyebrow.
Coming here with a fist full of money or having spent your productive life in another country and looking for a nice uncrowded bolt hole to retire to is a major reason for the inflated property market.
Previous generation of immigrants generally met far harder criteria than exist today.
Incidently I only managed 35000 hits for Winston Peters and xenophobia but whats a little exaggeration.

westerly

Daytr
12-07-2015, 08:29 AM
Well BP in the last few days you have jumped from pedophiles, to mass murderers & now xenophobes, all on your own.
So my comment in regards you being confused is quite legitimate, if not restrained.

Perhaps you should give NZs longest standing government minister a break & recognize some of the good things he has done. I freely admitted he's not perfect, so again your reference to me thinking he's a saint, is well off the mark. Lately he has stood up to National's record on swamp kauri trade which is a disgrace. He is now taking aim in regards Kiwi rail. Perhaps instead of National trying to corporatize social services they could actually try to fix something like Kiwirail. It would suit their road building agenda to no doubt put more trucks on our roads, rather than making a sustainable investment in the rail service to get more trucks off roads. The maintenance bill across the country on our roads due to logging trucks etc must add up to $100s of millions each year. Under their watch they have completely mismanaged the Cook Strait ferry service & I'm sure everyone remembers the rollout of the teachers payroll system, another example of their incompetence.

Another massive assumption. Winston has a policy on immigration, he is not running the discussion, however as Westerly stated above his views are in line with a lot of NZers. Could he sometimes be more tactful in what he says? Yes I agree he could be.

Really, Kiwis perhaps not allowed to return? So you would rather have open slather immigration at the cost of its own CITIZENS.
So you are saying this is a form of immigration? LOL! Should I apologize for coming HOME after living overseas for years?
You do like drawing extremes.
No to all your suggestions. We should just adjust the number of immigrants according to the in-out flow of NZers, not just sit on our hands & do nothing as National have done. As I've said, its quite simple really...
Re the Aussies, as there are far more Kiwis going to Aussie than the other way around I would prefer to deal with real issues than imaginary ones.

My guess is that you don't like Winston Peters as he is probably the most effective opposition leader in the country.
Single handedly he has founded a party that has survived & is now flourishing & is probably NZs 3rd or 4th party in the country.
He just dealt National the biggest blow in NZs political history with the Northland bi-election. Love him or hate him he deserves respect.
I would like you to point out how often has he been caught lying compared to the PM?
I have lost count how many times John Key has outright lied to NZ in the last few years alone.
Twice comes straight to mind. Troop deployment in Afghanistan & the spying by the GCSB on NZers.

Haven't you said you think that NZF will form a coalition with National in 2017? Or was that someone else?
If it was you, it seems you don't mind him too much as long as it suits your purpose of the right staying in government.

Super Winnie, the biggest thorn in John Key's side. Key must be itching to tug on a ponytail every time he sees or hears from the MP for Northland. ;-)

BlackPeter
12-07-2015, 09:00 AM
Coming here with a fist full of money or having spent your productive life in another country and looking for a nice uncrowded bolt hole to retire to is a major reason for the inflated property market.
westerly
Look westerly - I understand. However - you would need to sort this out with daytr ... he was the one spending his productive life in Aussie, paying taxes over there and now coming back for retirement to NZ. I have no problems with that - but you seem to have. :p

BlackPeter
12-07-2015, 09:09 AM
Incidently I only managed 35000 hits for Winston Peters and xenophobia but whats a little exaggeration.

westerly

So - you really got only 35000 hits? Really? Hand on your heart?

Funny search engines, but if it helps - here is my search result:

7476

BlackPeter
12-07-2015, 09:16 AM
My guess is that you don't like Winston Peters as he is probably the most effective opposition leader in the country.
)

Not sure, whether I like or dislike Winston Peters ... I don't vote based on "like". However I fully agree with your statement that he is the most effective opposition leader in the country. And this is a really sad reflection on the state of our opposition:p.

BlackPeter
12-07-2015, 10:02 AM
Haven't you said you think that NZF will form a coalition with National in 2017? Or was that someone else?
If it was you, it seems you don't mind him too much as long as it suits your purpose of the right staying in government.

I probably did (say that this might happen). However - I never said that I like it!
Maybe you should better read people's posts before you run them into the ground ... and this is not just referring to this particular comment.

Daytr
12-07-2015, 11:23 AM
So you wouldn't like it, but you would take it if needed?
Super Winnie, there when you need him most! ;-)


I probably did (say that this might happen). However - I never said that I like it!
Maybe you should better read people's posts before you run them into the ground ... and this is not just referring to this particular comment.

Bjauck
12-07-2015, 12:00 PM
So you wouldn't like it, but you would take it if needed?
Super Winnie, there when you need him most! ;-)

I think the system we have, MMP, encourages that sort of thing. Under FPP, you would be more likely have a majority of seats for the biggest party. Since many people supported MMP because they did not like conniving politicians, it is somewhat bizarre that MMP encourages more horse-trading by politicians so that they can get control of the treasury benches!

Daytr
12-07-2015, 12:14 PM
Yeah but it also means more views get more representation.
IMO its good that we now have legitimate options other than just Labour or National.
I suppose there was Social Credit back in the day.
I'm not sure they voted for MMP for the reasons you gave, but because its fairer & proportional representation gives people more alternatives for their vote.

iceman
12-07-2015, 05:52 PM
You are playing the man - not the ball ... and not for the first time ...

Give me a break ... maybe a worthwhile proposal to pope Francis to get him canonized? Just a thought. Yes, I remember the winebox scandal - and yes, he did good at that time. However 25 years or so have past since then. Not much good did he deliver after that (I have mixed feelings re the gold card ...) - and hey - he must feel very appropriately rewarded by the right to receive not just an outstanding pension schema for MP's plus NZ super but have as well the opportunity to use his own personal gold card ...


You are not wrong there BP ! The lack of comments from anyone holding right of center views, except your good self, is noticeable recently. I wonder why ! Maybe the regular condescending comments play a part ? Good on you for taking the time to continue to debate some of it.

Winston chose his profession as a politician and has not been doing it as a service to NZ. Agree it took guts to initiate and fight the Winebox enquiry The Gold card was good for over 65s and the free under 5 (was it 5) doctors visits for children was great.
Governments he's belonged to have also signed a few free trade agreements and sold of quite a few Government assets. So he certainly hasn't been all bad :)

He most certainly is the most effective Opposition Leader in NZ at present and has increased his statue by winning Northland. To the detriment of silly (for supporting Winston) Andrew Little as predicted.

Daytr
12-07-2015, 06:33 PM
It could be because National have been having a shocker lately Iceman.

westerly
12-07-2015, 06:59 PM
Look westerly - I understand. However - you would need to sort this out with daytr ... he was the one spending his productive life in Aussie, paying taxes over there and now coming back for retirement to NZ. I have no problems with that - but you seem to have. :p

If he is a New Zealander he is entitled to return whenever he likes.
Australia sends NZ citizens home sometimes when they would rather stay. Something NZ could do more often with law breaking immigrants. :)

I am not sure abvout google It returned 31000 odd hits but when but also gave your 61000 at another try so I apologise for suggesting you were exagerating.

westerly

Daytr
12-07-2015, 08:38 PM
And NZF is right of center Iceman. Its probably hard to tell when compared to the extreme right wing policies of John Key's National. :-)


You are not wrong there BP ! The lack of comments from anyone holding right of center views, except your good self, is noticeable recently. I wonder why ! Maybe the regular condescending comments play a part ? Good on you for taking the time to continue to debate some of it.

Winston chose his profession as a politician and has not been doing it as a service to NZ. Agree it took guts to initiate and fight the Winebox enquiry The Gold card was good for over 65s and the free under 5 (was it 5) doctors visits for children was great.
Governments he's belonged to have also signed a few free trade agreements and sold of quite a few Government assets. So he certainly hasn't been all bad :)

He most certainly is the most effective Opposition Leader in NZ at present and has increased his statue by winning Northland. To the detriment of silly (for supporting Winston) Andrew Little as predicted.

elZorro
12-07-2015, 09:04 PM
I was most intrigued with Labour's information about the Auckland housing market. They appear to have done a good job of working through the data and producing a statistically sound report. It doesn't matter which overseas country appears to be the biggest force in Auckland house sales. But the fact is, it does appear to be external to our own economy, and that's what is wrong with it. Like a sharemarket bull run, these investors are piling in because it looks like easy money. Of course with a population the size of China, and their government looking to free up their citizens, allowing them to invest more heavily overseas, this is just the start. Our market is one of the easiest to invest in, and has no effective capital gains tax in place. A Labour govt would have sorted this by copying Australia's example: overseas investors can build new houses, they can't buy existing stock. Not legally, anyway.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=11478719

winner69
13-07-2015, 07:26 AM
EZ, statistically sound it is not

elZorro
13-07-2015, 07:46 AM
EZ, statistically sound it is not

I meant that compared to National's data (zero) and considering that all Labour had to go on was names, prices and locations of the sales (I'd guess), they extracted quite a bit of interesting information. A batch of statistical tests could then be run on the data against the known population ethnicity of Auckland in general, to see if the implied ethnicity level of some sales data over three months was statistically different from the domestic population base. Three or four experts concluded that it was highly significant.


Mr Twyford said it was unlikely local Chinese — whom he did not wish to criticise — could be responsible for so many purchases, as they made up only 5 per cent of top income earners (those on more than $50,000 a year).

The Chinese surnames are a relatively easy method of screening the sales data, and they were careful to do that in proportion with names like "Lee". Wang was the top surname on the list, not too many Europeans use that name.

But now we see C-T at work: Labour are using the race card, it's also possible that local Chinese are doing the buying. Really?

9% of Auckland's resident population are ethnically Chinese, they make up only 5% of those earning $50,000 per year or more (so they are poorer on average than most Aucklanders), but they are buying 39% of Auckland's houses on average, and more in wealthier suburbs? Yes, it's possible, but also highly unlikely.

The point of this work is that National have been denying the reality of the rampant house price inflation in Auckland, probably because many of their voters have been doing really well out of it.

If Labour's right, the level of buying might slow down for a while, after the Chinese sharemarket ructions.


13/7/2015 — General
What reverberations for NZ from China’s sharemarket syndrome?
By Simon Hartley
The fallout from the Chinese sharemarket rout last Wednesday has spread through to the United States, with American sharemarkets slumping sharply, while billions of dollars were stripped off the value of shares in companies linked to Australian commodities.
While the bourses of Shanghai, Hong Kong, Australia and the New Zealand all started the day down on Thursday, they then steadied and slowly retraced losses to mostly move into positive territory by late in the afternoon, NZ time.
Ongoing pressures on the Australian market – which catches influenza if China gets a mild cold (and Wednesday’s fall was more than a snuffle for China – was not helped by the iron ore price slipping below $US50/tonne – the Plimsoll Line for some of Western Australia’s new wave of iron ore producers. However, late on Friday the iron ore price lifted to $US56/t.
The real fallout for New Zealand could yet materialise from downturns in the economies of China and Australia, the country's two largest trading partners.
Australia has been hit especially hard by plunging iron ore prices and so has the revenue expectations of both the Western Australian and Federal governments.
Further unnerving United States investors during the panic from China was a three and a-half hour stoppage during trading on the New York exchange over a technical glitch.
US stocks went on to slump sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.45%. The broad-based S&P 500 fell 1.65% and the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite shed 1.75%.
Earlier, in China, the CSI300 index of the largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed down 6.8%, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 5.9%.
Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said of 2,808 listed Chinese companies, about 45%, or about 1,300, had their shares put into a trading halt.
“'It marked the largest wave of trading halts in the history of China's equity markets,” Timms said.
When the NZX opened yesterday (Thursday), it was shortly afterwards down 1.3%, with some nervousness being shown by investors, over the combined Greece debt issue and China market rout.
However, Timms was assuring local investors there had been “no change” affecting New Zealand-listed companies.
He said that for Australia the further iron ore slump to $US44.59/t, an almost 30% decline in just 10 days, was causing alarm in the resource sector. (On Friday there was an almost $US10/t rally in the price which made many Australian share punters realise they are dealing with a pendulum they don’t like).
“At below $US50 a tonne, virtually all of Australia's producers, outside BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, are rendered unprofitable,” he said.
The weakness in Australia's economic outlook was reflected in traders exiting the Australian dollar for the kiwi, which rose against the US dollar from US66.43 to US67.27 on Wednesday.
Timms said if the price slump was prolonged, it could bankrupt smaller ore producers, forcing them to sell assets and close mines.
Unlike other major stock markets dominated by professional money managers, retail investors account for about 85% of China trade, which exacerbates volatility.
China's securities regulator took the drastic step late on Wednesday of ordering shareholders with stakes of more than 5% from selling shares for the next six months in a bid to halt the plunging stock prices.
China had also banned short selling and new listings, and enlisted the help of the major stockbrokers through a 120 billion ($A26 B) stabilisation fund, AAP reported.
Timms said much of the Chinese selling was linked to calls for repayment on ''margin lending'', where investors had borrowed against the value of their overall share portfolio, to buy more shares.
However, when the market began falling, lenders called in the loans, and investors had no choice but to sell portfolio stock to raise cash, which further exaggerated the selling environment.
“It [selling] becomes of a bit of a self-fulfilling, vicious cycle,” Timms said.
Beginning with China's central bank cutting interest rates three times since November 2014, to kick-start the economy, the “easy money” saw the Chinese markets rally 150%, from June last year up until this month.
Many Chinese companies which halted trading did so by citing unspecified significant events, asset restructuring or private share placements, but the moves were most likely meant to protect their shares from the ongoing sell-off.
Wednesday's China plunge also dragged down the Hong Kong sharemarket, where many of the same companies were also listed, by 4.3%.
*Simon Hartley is senior business reporter and assistant chief reporter for the Otago Daily Times.


But what makes you unsure of the stats, W69?

BlackPeter
13-07-2015, 08:38 AM
Interesting strategy:

In the last election Labour competed with the so called Green party for the most left wing stance in NZ politics. Outcome ... No more and no less left voters than usual, the only thing Labour achieved was splitting the Left voter pool between Green / Internet / Mana and the leftovers for Labour.

Looks like this time they are fighting with Winston First for the most racist policies. Only interesting question is - how many racist votes will they take from Winston - and how many left wing people will feel uncomfortable with Labour's new apartheid and won't vote for them anymore?

I guess nothing wrong if the people of NZ would decide that only people with NZ residence are allowed to buy real estate ... many other countries have similar policies (even if they don't seem to curb the housing crisis in e.g. Singapore, Shanghai or Sydney) - but playing the race card by outing people with Chinese sounding surnames - really - how low can you sink?

craic
13-07-2015, 08:56 AM
"Right of centre supporters not commenting"? National having a shocker of a year? Bollocks! Why waste time dredging around inside a left wing mutual admiration societies cess pool. National are doing fine - Winston peters makeup will start to run in the heat of the next election, if he lasts that long and JK will bolt in again.

Daytr
13-07-2015, 09:26 AM
Ok Craic, should I just take your word for that, or should I rely on the scandals followed by botched policy, rinse & repeat by National over the last nine months or so? I can list them if you like? Its quite an exhaustive list.


"Right of centre supporters not commenting"? National having a shocker of a year? Bollocks! Why waste time dredging around inside a left wing mutual admiration societies cess pool. National are doing fine - Winston peters makeup will start to run in the heat of the next election, if he lasts that long and JK will bolt in again.

Daytr
13-07-2015, 09:33 AM
BP, this is not racist, its a fact. What Labour are highlighting is that overseas buyers are having a massive influence on the property bubble in Auckland.
Obviously the numbers lack veracity, as it doesn't distinguish between citizens and non citizens, however even if the number of foreign buyers is half what is suggested it is still very high. If Labour were recommending stopping only Chinese foreign buyers, then I would agree its racist, however they aren't, so its not. They are recommending to contain all foreign buyers no matter what nationality. This is very common overseas and NZ has a very unprotected property market in regards foreign ownership compared to many other countries including Australia.


Interesting strategy:

In the last election Labour competed with the so called Green party for the most left wing stance in NZ politics. Outcome ... No more and no less left voters than usual, the only thing Labour achieved was splitting the Left voter pool between Green / Internet / Mana and the leftovers for Labour.

Looks like this time they are fighting with Winston First for the most racist policies. Only interesting question is - how many racist votes will they take from Winston - and how many left wing people will feel uncomfortable with Labour's new apartheid and won't vote for them anymore?

I guess nothing wrong if the people of NZ would decide that only people with NZ residence are allowed to buy real estate ... many other countries have similar policies (even if they don't seem to curb the housing crisis in e.g. Singapore, Shanghai or Sydney) - but playing the race card by outing people with Chinese sounding surnames - really - how low can you sink?

craic
13-07-2015, 10:57 AM
It is your exhaustive list of petty incidents - It doesn't include the international ratings that show clearly that a huge percentage of the worlds population would give their eye teeth to be able to come and live here, one of the most peaceful and prosperous places in the world. The list - your list is the cess pool and anyone with any sense knows that you keep away from cess pools - you cann catch things from them.
Ok Craic, should I just take your word for that, or should I rely on the scandals followed by botched policy, rinse & repeat by National over the last nine months or so? I can list them if you like? Its quite an exhaustive list.

elZorro
13-07-2015, 12:57 PM
It is your exhaustive list of petty incidents - It doesn't include the international ratings that show clearly that a huge percentage of the worlds population would give their eye teeth to be able to come and live here, one of the most peaceful and prosperous places in the world. The list - your list is the cess pool and anyone with any sense knows that you keep away from cess pools - you cann catch things from them.

Could our government do better than it is? that's the question. Craic, if you could put yourself for just one instant in the shoes of a school leaver with just NCEA 1 or 2 looking for a job in Auckland, what do think of their chances? Should they be happy enough with the dole, and wait for the economic upturn that is always just around the corner? Meanwhile the voters from the right are ridiculing them for being lazy. Drop 40,000 broad-based manufacturing jobs from the economy while the population rises, and see what happens. These and many other people who don't own property - they are not seeing the benefits of any real estate boom - it just makes their position seem all the more hopeless.

Daytr
13-07-2015, 01:17 PM
My list is a list of National's doings. If you deem that to be a cesspool then so be it. Your words not mine.
National - has tripled the National debt.
National - has set a new record for the longest running government without achieving a surplus, beating their own record.
National's Northland MP resigned as was under police investigation creating a bi-election. The same MP was appointed Chair of the law & order committee by the PM just prior to his resignation.
National - announces that they want to privatize social housing, espousing the Salvos as their banner partner. Salvos had not even been consulted & since turned down any participation.
National - cut funding to DOC & restructured losing experienced people. 18 months later having to reverse the restructure as its a failure.
Ponytail gate gets makes embarrassing world headlines.
Sheepgate - $11M paid in dodgy deal with Saudi businessman.
Swamp Kauri - the current flimsy law being flouted right under the watch of the MPI.
Major infestation of fruit fly in Auckland after National have relaxed bio boarder security controls, more recently poisonous spiders getting through to supermarkets.

This is just in the last nine months or so & there are more if you want me to continue.
This is not being sleazy, its just a list of failures or dodgy behavior by the Government of the day.
I wish there wasn't a list like the above, I really do, but there is and National need to be taken to account.


It is your exhaustive list of petty incidents - It doesn't include the international ratings that show clearly that a huge percentage of the worlds population would give their eye teeth to be able to come and live here, one of the most peaceful and prosperous places in the world. The list - your list is the cess pool and anyone with any sense knows that you keep away from cess pools - you cann catch things from them.

craic
13-07-2015, 03:39 PM
I left school to conditions far worse than any Auckland school leaver could ever face. My only option was to scrape up my train fare to Belfast and join the British army - I was seventeen. Had they not taken me, I would have had to walk home as I had nothing. I was one of the lucky ones with the balls to do something, others were less fortunate. Unemployment was never mentioned there, it was the norm.
Could our government do better than it is? that's the question. Craic, if you could put yourself for just one instant in the shoes of a school leaver with just NCEA 1 or 2 looking for a job in Auckland, what do think of their chances? Should they be happy enough with the dole, and wait for the economic upturn that is always just around the corner? Meanwhile the voters from the right are ridiculing them for being lazy. Drop 40,000 broad-based manufacturing jobs from the economy while the population rises, and see what happens. These and many other people who don't own property - they are not seeing the benefits of any real estate boom - it just makes their position seem all the more hopeless.

Daytr
13-07-2015, 04:03 PM
Well I'm glad that worked out for you & things could always be worse here, but that doesn't mean we let things deteriorate.
I went straight from school into the workforce. And most jobs I have done I have created myself.
NZ is getting to be an expensive place to live, we have increased government debt dramatically and our social services are about to get corporatized (read more expensive). This all in a very short space of time. NZ was in pretty good shape before National came to power & I'm tired of the excuses in regards Christchurch and the GFC. They have sold billions of dollars of assets and still the debt climbs.


I left school to conditions far worse than any Auckland school leaver could ever face. My only option was to scrape up my train fare to Belfast and join the British army - I was seventeen. Had they not taken me, I would have had to walk home as I had nothing. I was one of the lucky ones with the balls to do something, others were less fortunate. Unemployment was never mentioned there, it was the norm.

BlackPeter
13-07-2015, 04:08 PM
Could our government do better than it is? that's the question. Craic, if you could put yourself for just one instant in the shoes of a school leaver with just NCEA 1 or 2 looking for a job in Auckland, what do think of their chances? Should they be happy enough with the dole, and wait for the economic upturn that is always just around the corner? Meanwhile the voters from the right are ridiculing them for being lazy. Drop 40,000 broad-based manufacturing jobs from the economy while the population rises, and see what happens. These and many other people who don't own property - they are not seeing the benefits of any real estate boom - it just makes their position seem all the more hopeless.

Lots of jobs for low qualified people in Southland and Christchurch these days. Farmers as well as Builders are desperate to find the help they need. Even the pay rate is quite good - normally well above your "living wage". They even could afford to buy a house in Invercargill, rural Southland or rural Canterbury. EZ, if your Auckland school leavers prefer to stay unemployed and without house in overcrowded Auckland - why is this Nationals fault? I guess these are the people who pick unemployment and whinging as a life style choice.

elZorro
13-07-2015, 07:38 PM
Lots of jobs for low qualified people in Southland and Christchurch these days. Farmers as well as Builders are desperate to find the help they need. Even the pay rate is quite good - normally well above your "living wage". They even could afford to buy a house in Invercargill, rural Southland or rural Canterbury. EZ, if your Auckland school leavers prefer to stay unemployed and without house in overcrowded Auckland - why is this Nationals fault? I guess these are the people who pick unemployment and whinging as a life style choice.

But isn't living in the lower half of the South Island putting yourself under some kind of deprivation anyway, BP? ;)Less sun, the snow, the wind, the massive drives to get anywhere, this doesn't suit everybody, but does make for a good change of scenery.

Are you seriously suggesting that the lower South Island could mop up all of the unemployed and put them into good jobs? Or would the dairy farmers and others stick with their Filipino workers, workers who are keen to work at lower rates of pay in the colder conditions? Before you jump at me, if these jobs were really well paid and workers were in such short supply, you'd think something would be happening. The market has already solved it, they import cheaper workers, and make do.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11261625

Daytr
14-07-2015, 06:58 AM
BP, what farm jobs in Southland & Canterbury are you referring to? Southland dairy is dominated by Filipino workers and this is something National could do something about. Migrant workers have their place, especially for seasonal work, however if its permanent jobs then they should be attracting Kiwis by offering higher wages to work long hours, getting up at 4am in quite often freezing conditions. Market forces and all that, or is the ACT philosophy of market forces prevailing not apply if it means raising wages for work in quite extreme conditions? Plenty of people have also moved to Christchurch as well for the rebuild, however it doesn't always work when you have a family to accommodate & there is no accommodation. I don't think the bottom of the South Island is the answer to all the country's employment problems in fact there is quite a drift north or would you like to reverse that? Cheers Daytr



Lots of jobs for low qualified people in Southland and Christchurch these days. Farmers as well as Builders are desperate to find the help they need. Even the pay rate is quite good - normally well above your "living wage". They even could afford to buy a house in Invercargill, rural Southland or rural Canterbury. EZ, if your Auckland school leavers prefer to stay unemployed and without house in overcrowded Auckland - why is this Nationals fault? I guess these are the people who pick unemployment and whinging as a life style choice.

craic
14-07-2015, 07:03 AM
You miss the point that starting at the bottom and working up is the norm, not having some magic economy or government scheme that takes you in half-way up the ladder and guaarntees a cradle to grave insurance. My daughter sold encyclopaedias from door to door and then the first cellphones and now has multi-million business. My son left from the fourth form and worked for an outfit making space invaders games for shops and he is now a market data expert with the Bank of America. The third studied well, won the sixth form woodworking prize and was offered a job pumping petrol but instead went to Auckland and cleaned and shuffled second-hand imports. He now has a degree, a good job, and believe it or not, a house of his own, for his family in Auckland.I started off as a lowly rifleman in the British Army and now I have risen to retired lowly ex-rifleman in just sixty years. Working on the land in the South Island can be a great experience - I worked a season for the North Canterbury tussock board, grubbing Nasella tussock and it did me no harm at all.

Daytr
14-07-2015, 07:13 AM
Craic, I assume this was in response to my post. I didn't miss your point at all as I did the very same thing. Started straight from school into a cadetship.
Of course there are some people who could get off their backsides & get a job but there also needs to be more job creation, particularly in the regions where it is cheap to live and quite often family connections.
I think one of the biggest issues is that there isn't enough of a gap between the amount you get on the dole and the minimum wage.
The minimum wage imo is at subsistence levels and I think needs to be somewhere around $18/hour.

tga_trader
14-07-2015, 08:23 AM
The minimum wage imo is at subsistence levels and I think needs to be somewhere around $18/hour.
Yes, but I also don't want to pay any more for goods and services so employers will just have to suck it up.


Lots of jobs for low qualified people in Southland and Christchurch these days. Farmers as well as Builders are desperate to find the help they need. Even the pay rate is quite good - normally well above your "living wage". They even could afford to buy a house in Invercargill, rural Southland or rural Canterbury. EZ, if your Auckland school leavers prefer to stay unemployed and without house in overcrowded Auckland - why is this Nationals fault? I guess these are the people who pick unemployment and whinging as a life style choice.
And if they're afraid of a bit of cold....the last farm my uncle ran in the Waikato was paying between $22-25/hr as well as farm house rental for $150...PER MONTH. And they struggled to a) Find people full stop, b) find people with 2 braincells to rub together, and c) find people that would stick around once they found out what actual work was. The money and the jobs are there, if you're willing to work for them.

blackcap
14-07-2015, 08:25 AM
Conversely to increase the gap we could also lower the dole.... :) A minimum wage of $18 per hour is just grossly impractical and would see many businesses suffer thus increasing those on said dole. Its a minimum wage for a reason... you work your way up and out of it like Craic was alluding to. We all started on it but most with some nous are not on it anymore.

BlackPeter
14-07-2015, 08:33 AM
But isn't living in the lower half of the South Island putting yourself under some kind of deprivation anyway, BP? ;)Less sun, the snow, the wind, the massive drives to get anywhere, this doesn't suit everybody, but does make for a good change of scenery.

Are you seriously suggesting that the lower South Island could mop up all of the unemployed and put them into good jobs? Or would the dairy farmers and others stick with their Filipino workers, workers who are keen to work at lower rates of pay in the colder conditions? Before you jump at me, if these jobs were really well paid and workers were in such short supply, you'd think something would be happening. The market has already solved it, they import cheaper workers, and make do.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11261625

Some people might prefer clean air and a bit lower temperatures to the big smoke ... and hey - yes, we do have less daylight in winter, but more in summer ;). Not sure about the sunshine ... I think Blenheim (which is still part of the mainland ...) is the place with the most sunshine hours in NZ. Not sure, whether Auckland has more sunshine than Southland ... nearly every time I get to Auckland there seems to be rain (or do I mix that up with Wellington?). Never mind.

Back to Auckland youth unemployment ... I don't know, whether South Island job vacancies could take all Auckland unemployed, but it certainly could make a great start. Problem is - many (unemployed) Aucklanders just don't want to come and make their hands dirty doing some real work. It is just so much easier to sit back, enjoy the doll, sip the latte while keeping to whinge about the government.

So what is the government supposed to do - bring the Southland farms (and the Canterbury rebuild) to the Auckland doorsteps to avoid inconveniencing the Auckland unemployed? Let's face it - most of them wouldn't appear to work anyway - if people want to work, than they find some in our country. If they don't, than there is no point in carrying them to work.

Interesting that the Filipinos don't feel inconvenienced to come from much further away to our shores to do some real work. Maybe the next opportunity for Labour to play the race card? Get rid of workers with Asian sounding names?

Referring to your link ... sure, there are always bad apples (realising daytr's sensitivities with black sheep) ... there will always be some bad employers as well as there always will be some bad employees. Should this be a good reason to turn living off the dole into a lifestyle choice? I don't think so.

Sgt Pepper
14-07-2015, 08:38 AM
Conversely to increase the gap we could also lower the dole.... :) A minimum wage of $18 per hour is just grossly impractical and would see many businesses suffer thus increasing those on said dole. Its a minimum wage for a reason... you work your way up and out of it like Craic was alluding to. We all started on it but most with some nous are not on it anymore.
BC
Don't you think though that the days of starting by sweeping the floor of the factory and ending managing it are well and truly past with the evolution of work and the qualification spiral. I work in a large hospital. If you aspire to be a charge Nurse you wont stand a chance unless you have a Masters Degree!

Daytr
14-07-2015, 09:50 AM
BP its well documented that Southland dairy is dominated by immigrant (and yes the majority are Filipino) labour. These are permanent jobs.
The reason why Filipinos are willing to do the work is that they come from an impoverished 3rd world country (have you ever been?) so NZs minimum wage is very attractive to them, but that's just stating the obvious that I suggest you are choosing to ignore. I have nothing against Asians or any race for that matter, I worked for a Japanese company for 10 years. I do have a problem when a policy is taking away jobs from NZers & suppressing wages.

BP, You keep choosing to play the race card. It is not racist to mention an ethnic group. Is it racist to say that Northland's population is almost 50% Maori for instance? Of course its not its just a fact. In fact virtually every Government form you fill out asks your sex & ethnic group. Is that racist?When immigrant labour is taking long term and permanent jobs that could be done by NZers, there is a problem with the system.
I'm not blaming National for the problem, but they could be doing something to fix it.

TGA, one job example is hardly a good sample & they got applicants from what you said, just not people they wanted.

Blackcap, you could lower the dole, National chose to raise it, well for certain participants. It hadn't been raised for some time I understand & costs certainly have. It wouldn't be easy living on $220 or whatever it is a week, but it shouldn't be easy either. I would be a very big fan of drug testing for the dole as I think this is a major issue, particularly with youth and dope & the like takes away their motivation to work etc.

In regards raising the minimum wage, it would need to be done gradually & this discussion has been had before, but it would create jobs as more money is injected into the economy. Not everyone can work their way up & some people will be doing minimum wage work all their lives. Australia pays much more than NZD18/hour for things like bar work etc. Another alternative to raising the minimum wage is making the tax free threshold much higher. I think in Australia the first $18k is now tax free! Perhaps a combination of both would be a better mix.


Some people might prefer clean air and a bit lower temperatures to the big smoke ... and hey - yes, we do have less daylight in winter, but more in summer ;). Not sure about the sunshine ... I think Blenheim (which is still part of the mainland ...) is the place with the most sunshine hours in NZ. Not sure, whether Auckland has more sunshine than Southland ... nearly every time I get to Auckland there seems to be rain (or do I mix that up with Wellington?). Never mind.

Back to Auckland youth unemployment ... I don't know, whether South Island job vacancies could take all Auckland unemployed, but it certainly could make a great start. Problem is - many (unemployed) Aucklanders just don't want to come and make their hands dirty doing some real work. It is just so much easier to sit back, enjoy the doll, sip the latte while keeping to whinge about the government.

So what is the government supposed to do - bring the Southland farms (and the Canterbury rebuild) to the Auckland doorsteps to avoid inconveniencing the Auckland unemployed? Let's face it - most of them wouldn't appear to work anyway - if people want to work, than they find some in our country. If they don't, than there is no point in carrying them to work.

Interesting that the Filipinos don't feel inconvenienced to come from much further away to our shores to do some real work. Maybe the next opportunity for Labour to play the race card? Get rid of workers with Asian sounding names?

Referring to your link ... sure, there are always bad apples (realising daytr's sensitivities with black sheep) ... there will always be some bad employers as well as there always will be some bad employees. Should this be a good reason to turn living off the dole into a lifestyle choice? I don't think so.

winner69
14-07-2015, 10:11 AM
EZ, one less paying member in your team

From twitter so spose in public domain for all to read


14 July 2015
General Secretary
New Zealand Labour Party Level 1, Fraser House 160*162 Willis St Wellington
via email

Dear Mr. Barnett

In light of Labour’s calculated decision over the weekend to deploy racial profiling as a political tactic, I resign my membership of the party.

I am stunned that Labour, as a matter of conscious political strategy, would trawl through a dubiously*acquired list of property buyers to identify Chinese*sounding names. Even as I write the words, I can scarcely believe that senior party leaders – or anyone of good conscience, for that matter – thought it an advisable course of action. That they are now defending it – even attacking Susan Devoy for her principled comments on the subject – compounds my disappointment.

I lived and worked in Rwanda for several years, including in 2014, during the twentieth commemoration of the genocide against the Tutsi minority. Many of my former colleagues, still dear friends, are among the few who survived the slaughter. They taught me something about what happens when political parties start compiling lists based on ethnicity. Nothing good can come from racial profiling of the kind Labour chose to employ in pursuit of a headline and a poll bump.

For some time, I have been aghast at the state of Labour. But that relates to misguided political tactics, wrong*headed priorities and a moribund organisation – none of them reason to leave a party I joined three decades ago. I cannot, however, belong to an organisation that considers racial profiling fair sport. It really is that simple. I will rejoin once this or any future leader publicly repudiates such tactics.

I’m sure my resignation will go entirely unlamented, but I am equally certain that the events that have caused it will plague the party for many years to come.

Please cancel any direct debit associated with my membership and remove me from any and all mailing lists.

Sincerely
Phil Quin

BlackPeter
14-07-2015, 10:21 AM
EZ, one less paying member in your team
...

Sincerely
Phil Quin

I guess he has a potentially Chinese sounding name ...why would he assume to be welcome in the Labour party anyway?

Daytr
14-07-2015, 10:29 AM
Winner69, have you looked at Paul Quin's blog?
The first page has 10 posts all disparaging Labour one way or another.
So I think this letter is a little disingenuous to say the least.

winner69
14-07-2015, 10:36 AM
Winner69, have you looked at Paul Quin's blog?
The first page has 10 posts all disparaging Labour one way or another.
So I think this letter is a little disingenuous to say the least.

Where's phil's blog ....assuming you meant him

Daytr
14-07-2015, 11:58 AM
Haha sorry yes. Paul Quinn was a great No 7 for Wellington & Maori All Black & later became a National MP.

Here's Phil Quin's blog, I assume its the same guy?

http://pundit.co.nz/blogs/philquin

artemis
14-07-2015, 12:29 PM
Winner69, have you looked at Paul Quin's blog? The first page has 10 posts all disparaging Labour one way or another. So I think this letter is a little disingenuous to say the least.

Members of any organisation come and go all the time, but a member of 30 years standing should be listened to. Not necessarily leading to a change of course.

Labour would also be well advised to listen to what 'kiwi in america' has to say on Kiwiblog from time to time. S/he was apparently well up in the Labour hierarchy before leaving the party, and posts are invariably measured and insightful even if not agreed with.

winner69
14-07-2015, 12:35 PM
Members of any organisation come and go all the time, but a member of 30 years standing should be listened to. Not necessarily leading to a change of course.

Labour would also be well advised to listen to what 'kiwi in america' has to say on Kiwiblog from time to time. S/he was apparently well up in the Labour hierarchy before leaving the party, and posts are invariably measured and insightful even if not agreed with.

Labour appear to be disenfranchising their 'traditional' support base.

But heck who are they going to attract to be the new labour supporters

fungus pudding
14-07-2015, 01:07 PM
Labour appear to be disenfranchising their 'traditional' support base.

But heck who are they going to attract to be the new labour supporters

They're on a winner with this one - plenty of anti-foreign buyer advocates, even though it's close to impossible to control. All they need to win the next election is a leader - they don't seem to be having much luck with that.

winner69
14-07-2015, 01:42 PM
They're on a winner with this one - plenty of anti-foreign buyer advocates, even though it's close to impossible to control. All they need to win the next election is a leader - they don't seem to be having much luck with that.

Our friend Angela Vance has asked 'since I left nz has UKIP set up a nz branch'

UKIP did very well in UK elections (vote wise)

Maybe the secret weapon for Labour after all .....Little to model himself on Farage?

No ....new leader required methinks

Plenty of double-barrelled names to choose from I notice

BlackPeter
14-07-2015, 03:33 PM
BP, what farm jobs in Southland & Canterbury are you referring to? Southland dairy is dominated by Filipino workers and this is something National could do something about. Migrant workers have their place, especially for seasonal work, however if its permanent jobs then they should be attracting Kiwis by offering higher wages to work long hours, getting up at 4am in quite often freezing conditions. Market forces and all that, or is the ACT philosophy of market forces prevailing not apply if it means raising wages for work in quite extreme conditions? Plenty of people have also moved to Christchurch as well for the rebuild, however it doesn't always work when you have a family to accommodate & there is no accommodation. I don't think the bottom of the South Island is the answer to all the country's employment problems in fact there is quite a drift north or would you like to reverse that? Cheers Daytr

Do you need a job?

Not sure, how much you know about our immigration rules - I used to hire staff for the last two decades (well, here in NZ). Had to work frequently with NZ Immigration service to get foreign workers into New Zealand (though admittedly higher qualified than your farmhands - I am talking electrical and software engineers and analysts). The only way to get anybody from overseas a work permit is if you can provide evidence that you tried hard to fill the job with a New Zealand resident (i.e. advertisement / how many suitable candidates did apply / ...) but failed to find a suitable candidate. Only than will they grant a work permit.

So - if you say that we have too many Filipinos working on our farms (I assume you are not just talking temps) .. than the only reason for that could be that no suitable NZ workers are available. And given that the qualifications asked for these jobs are not that special (well, maybe they are - people are actually asked to work) and given that we actually do still have some unemployed workers (particularly in Auckland and Northland I hear) do I suppose that we have here an attitude problem in the unemployed Kiwi population.

Sure - not everybody can work as farmhand in rural NZ ... but nobody suitable applying? Need to get up early and work outside, even in freezing conditions? Come on ... you can't be that soft ... Many people need to get up at 4am in the morning without asking for extra money to compensate for this "hardship". And the freezing conditions? Interesting that the filipinos don't seem to care. I myself grew up in a much colder climate like here and had for some time as well to get up early in the morning (often during the wee hours - and working outside). Believe me - if you want to work, than this is no problem at all (getting earlier to bed helps, though). I suppose they are allowed to wear appropriate clothing on the farm ;)?

Referring to the drift North: Yes, it seems to be a world wide trend that people flee the country life and prefer to live instead in urban slums ... and related to NZ - I don't think that as country we will have a great future if we just concentrate everything in Auckland. Already now too much traffic, too much crime and too many beneficiaries. Yes, I believe that a reversal of this trend back to many smaller centres and a revival of the regions would help the land. Will we get there? Not sure, so far none of the big parties seems to care (at least not when in power).

Daytr
14-07-2015, 04:15 PM
Why don't we open up all jobs to immigrant workers from 3rd world countries? I don't think they will mind at all and take any job to earn a better living than they do in their own country. I would if I was them. No suitable people or they just aren't willing to pay enough in Southland. Perhaps you could put your hand up for minimum wage or less quite often as the hours are very often not fully paid. The Southland dairy industry relies heavily on these workers, too heavily imo & as your man Jamie Whyte would say economics solves everything. In this case, pay enough & they will come. In Australia miners have to paid very good money to quite often do quite basic, but hard & sometimes dangerous work in regions that find it difficult to attract talent. Same applies here.

Yes you are right, I do need a job, it appears there is a vacancy for a counsellor. ;-)

BlackPeter
14-07-2015, 04:53 PM
Yes you are right, I do need a job, it appears there is a vacancy for a counsellor. ;-)

Dear daytr,

Thank you for your application. We received your CV and reviewed it with interest. It is with much regret that we identified insufficient overlap between your expressed interest (working hours 9 to 5 with a long paid lunch break and several tea breaks, nice weather, balmy temperatures, outrageous salary, daily union meetings on the farm and free coffee latte round the clock) and skills (counsellor) with the job conditions on offer.

Please feel free to monitor our webpage for new vacancies and re-apply if a position suitable to your needs and interest comes up.

We wish you all the best for your future career,

kind regards,

...

Daytr
14-07-2015, 07:03 PM
Very good. ;-) Never been a member of a union though, so again you mistake me for a leftie.
I just like giving people a fair shake & put in place structure & policy that enables people better.
If that's being a lefty, so be it. I think its just being reasonable.

elZorro
15-07-2015, 06:22 AM
Very good. ;-) Never been a member of a union though, so again you mistake me for a leftie.
I just like giving people a fair shake & put in place structure & policy that enables people better.
If that's being a lefty, so be it. I think its just being reasonable.

Daytr, that's so Centre Left, I'll have to send you a Labour badge.:) But NZFirst's policies match up fairly well with Labour policies anyway.

The press are continuing to give stick to Labour's research work, but Andrew Little has been at pains to point out that the research showed there was at least one major overseas geographical area that was probably boosting Auckland's house sales data. Labour are also pointing out that National is fibbing about this being a small effect. OK, prove it, John Key, get the register up and running properly, and let NZ see the data for real. They won't want to do that, not this side of 2017 anyway. It's highly likely that overseas Chinese speculators (and possibly some from other countries, but they're less prevalent) are massively inflating our housing market in Auckland - end of story.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/politics/349085/housing-stand-seen-cynical-policy

Labour has a lot of policies that would cool this market back to something more reasonable, and top of the list for now, would be a ban on foreign ownership of existing houses, although they would be free to move here or to build new stock. Joyce lied when he said this policy is not working in Australia's cities like Sydney. It is working, and they are looking to tighten the loopholes, not discard the policy.

Don't believe all you read or hear, especially from the National Government.

Daytr
15-07-2015, 07:27 AM
Well I'm a Centerist EZ, so that means I take a bit from each side of the political fence, hopefully the best bits.
I'm pretty disillusioned with the politics within the spectrum in NZ, but I don't think that's just confined to NZ & more a global thing & NZ in someways is probably better off than a lot of other countries in that regard, including the likes of Australia & particularly the US.
And I certainly don't like the fact that Key is taking us down the path of the US model that is so flawed & dominated by greed & big business.
I am all for encouraging business where it is sustainable or a necessity etc, but not just to pay shareholders at the cost of our democracy, environment or vulnerable people such as those who require state housing or mental health services.

craic
15-07-2015, 08:11 AM
Contemplate this - Regardless of your political leanings. If you took every penny in NZ and made it into a big pile and then carefully divided it equally between every man woman and child in the country, what would happen? Firstly, some individuals would would steal shares from the naive and guillible. some would be broke and hungover in days, Others would be running around with goods and services, trying to build up the pile they had before. No one would have a job because there are no employers with the wherewithall to employ anyone. The banks are empty but filling slowly. It would take a lng time but everything would return to where it was before and the poor and unemployed would still be poor and unemployed.

Sgt Pepper
15-07-2015, 08:49 AM
Contemplate this - Regardless of your political leanings. If you took every penny in NZ and made it into a big pile and then carefully divided it equally between every man woman and child in the country, what would happen? Firstly, some individuals would would steal shares from the naive and guillible. some would be broke and hungover in days, Others would be running around with goods and services, trying to build up the pile they had before. No one would have a job because there are no employers with the wherewithall to employ anyone. The banks are empty but filling slowly. It would take a lng time but everything would return to where it was before and the poor and unemployed would still be poor and unemployed.

Is this not the function of the tax system to be redistributive to a certain point. I am fortunate to be on a high income and the tax system very efficiently removes approximately 32% of it every fortnight. I accept that I have to pay my share of running a civilised humane society. What does upset me are those who refuse to pay for their round of drinks at the bar. they, legally of course, set up their affairs to avoid paying tax, but expect a full response from the system if they wake up in the morning with occluded coronary arteries.

Daytr
15-07-2015, 09:05 AM
Craic, no one, well at least not me, are suggesting communism here. Just sound policy that encourages and enables all citizens to make the most of opportunities that are created. There is not enough job creation in NZ above minimum wage & the minimum wage is too low.
If people are willing to work hard & quite often in physically demanding jobs and sometimes at risk of injury, they deserve at least what is described as a living wage. There is a lot of people on here complaining about 'bludgers' on the dole etc, but I hear very little on what can be done to change that. And getting off their arse is not a political policy. ;-)

In regards foreign ownership of property.
Below is a link to the guidelines of foreign ownership in Australia.
EVERY foreign purchase is reviewed by the FIRB.

This I found quite interesting & seems like a commonsense approach for NZ to follow.
Not along ago they did a review of many foreign purchases and found quite a few had skirted the guidelines.
These owners were forced to sell over a lenient & reasonable time frame.

"Migrating to Australia?
If you are interested in buying property in Australia because you want to migrate to Australia on a Permanent Residence Visa (with a view to taking up Australian citizenship at a later date), it is perhaps premature to investigate the purchase of property before your eligibility for a PRV is assessed. PRVs are only granted after assessment of many factors. Some of these are nomination by an employer, affiliations with family members already living in Australia and the business skills you can offer Australia. "

http://www.australia-migration.com/page/Foreign_Investors_Buying_property_as_a_foreigner_o r_Temporary_Resident_in_Australia/178

Major von Tempsky
15-07-2015, 09:48 AM
Our friend Angela Vance has asked 'since I left nz has UKIP set up a nz branch'

UKIP did very well in UK elections (vote wise)

Maybe the secret weapon for Labour after all .....Little to model himself on Farage?

No ....new leader required methinks

Plenty of double-barrelled names to choose from I notice


Yep, looks like NZLP is reopened as a branch of UKIP!

Angela Vance?....Angela Merkel....Andrea Vance - her only friends are Peter Dunne, Leila Harre, Matt McCarten...you know the usual list of suspects...

Major von Tempsky
15-07-2015, 09:51 AM
Sgt Pepper is no doubt referring to the expert welfare and government grant troughers :-)

Daytr
15-07-2015, 10:00 AM
With you on that one Sgt Pepper. And expect a pension!

(What does upset me are those who refuse to pay for their round of drinks at the bar. they, legally of course, set up their affairs to avoid paying tax, but expect a full response from the system if they wake up in the morning with occluded coronary arteries.[/QUOTE]

westerly
15-07-2015, 11:01 AM
Sgt Pepper is no doubt referring to the expert welfare and government grant troughers :-)

You forgot to include the tax experts employed by the wealthy to dodge tax, the legal experts employed by the wealthy to avoid the punishments handed out to the peasants when they commit the same offences, Those appointed by the Govt to various lucrative appointments, not to mention the vastly inflated salaries required to keep CEO's and Directors from the poor house. And of course highly paid economists who can give reasons for everything that has happened but are very poor at predictions let alone coming to any form of agreement :)

westerly

Sgt Pepper
15-07-2015, 11:37 AM
Sgt Pepper is no doubt referring to the expert welfare and government grant troughers :-)

Major
You are watching too much Fox News again! I know you are still grumpy about slavery being abolished in 1833.

Joshuatree
15-07-2015, 11:42 AM
Proportion of Kiwis owning house they live in has hit a 64-year low
Some fascinating statistics there
Read more » (http://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/QQMrKma8h6MjbHw96gBRew/u3xhsjcTRCdgKDRZks2EEg/oQn6KI4jq7CXn6wX892Rwopg)

westerly
15-07-2015, 01:28 PM
EZ interesting Press article on the ChCh. Rebuild and Bill's surplus

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/business/the-rebuild/70084887/how-much-is-the-government-really-spending-to-fix-christchurch

BlackPeter
15-07-2015, 01:35 PM
Proportion of Kiwis owning house they live in has hit a 64-year low
Some fascinating statistics there
Read more » (http://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/QQMrKma8h6MjbHw96gBRew/u3xhsjcTRCdgKDRZks2EEg/oQn6KI4jq7CXn6wX892Rwopg)


Ah well - maybe this is a good thing? Fascinating statistic on wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

Remarkable that "high wealth" countries (like e.g. Germany 53.3%, Switzerland 44%) have a significant lower home ownership rate than New Zealand with 64.8% in 2013. And on the other end of the spectrum ... the countries with the highest home ownership rate (Romania 95.6%, Lithuania 92.2%, Slovakia 90.5%) are not really the place where most of us would want to live. Oh yes, and than there is Russia with 84% and Greece with 75.8%.

So I guess - the trend is moving into the right direction ... assuming we want to live in one of the wealthier countries (vs some of the really poor ...:).

BlackPeter
15-07-2015, 01:43 PM
EZ interesting Press article on the ChCh. Rebuild and Bill's surplus

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/business/the-rebuild/70084887/how-much-is-the-government-really-spending-to-fix-christchurch

True - the so called Christchurch rebuild is a sad story of delays, lack of work coordination resulting in incredible inefficiencies and red tape running wild. And now they tear down some newly erected buildings because they changed the zoning after initially consenting these buildings. Not sure who is paying these bills. Quite expensive planning mistakes caused by a bureaucracy which used to be already in good times out of its depth. The only thing I am not sure is - why does anybody think that Labour would have done a better job?

elZorro
15-07-2015, 07:15 PM
EZ interesting Press article on the ChCh. Rebuild and Bill's surplus

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/business/the-rebuild/70084887/how-much-is-the-government-really-spending-to-fix-christchurch

Amazing stuff, I knew those budget surplus figures would be getting doctored somehow. Bill, I know how you could get in an extra billion a year (you'd have been $7bill better off by now), just put the top tax rates back to where they were. Maybe you should have kept all those power assets too, they were good dividend payers. And you should have kept a better eye on Solid Energy.

Here's an interesting take on Auckland house prices, from a local. Spot on.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11480908

Even Fran O'Sullivan chimed in.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11480867

Daytr
15-07-2015, 08:06 PM
Just because National are incompetent it doesn't mean every one is BP.
After all Labour reduced government debt, funded the Cullen fund whilst not resorting to selling assets.


True - the so called Christchurch rebuild is a sad story of delays, lack of work coordination resulting in incredible inefficiencies and red tape running wild. And now they tear down some newly erected buildings because they changed the zoning after initially consenting these buildings. Not sure who is paying these bills. Quite expensive planning mistakes caused by a bureaucracy which used to be already in good times out of its depth. The only thing I am not sure is - why does anybody think that Labour would have done a better job?

slimwin
15-07-2015, 10:50 PM
Isn't it a shame when politics gets in the way of non-partisan conversations,and pragmatic decisions. Labour sold this foreign ownership issue badly and the media has killed any chance of honest debate.

elZorro
16-07-2015, 07:16 AM
Isn't it a shame when politics gets in the way of non-partisan conversations,and pragmatic decisions. Labour sold this foreign ownership issue badly and the media has killed any chance of honest debate.

Slimwin, Labour just looked at the data they were given and baldly put it up for discussion. Their main point is that yet again, the govt is fibbing about the truth in the housing market. And that this data is not that hard to obtain, it is being gathered already. It was the right-wing press, C-T and their social media team, who tried desperately to turn it into a race issue. They'll do anything to hold onto power.

Vernon Small comments. (http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/70251514/is-labours-auckland-housebuying-data-racial-profiling-or-an-uncomfortable-truth?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+16 +July+2015)

Daytr
16-07-2015, 07:21 AM
Slimwin, I agree they could have done it better, however it has now created a real conversation and perhaps some real action will ensue.
National were sitting on their hands doing nothing & I would suggest collecting data starting in a few months is pretty much doing nothing. NZ is one of the few countries that has basically open slather in regards foreign property purchases. Only what are considered properties of significance are reviewed by the FIO and few & far between are turned down.
Unfortunately what is creating the poor debate, is using this, as if foreign ownership changes will only target Chinese. It wont, it will target all foreign ownership and what Labour have done is highlighted a very real issue of foreign buyers of which the majority are Chinese. They don't have auctions in Auckland translated into French, Japanese or German. Racism is to discriminate against one race over another. The law changes required and what Labour's & NZF's policy is for ALL foreign purchases.
If this is racist, then the rest of the world that has these very common sense laws in place are racist as well.

RGR367
16-07-2015, 07:54 AM
Yeah, Labour could have done it better but if you have "Little" or a weak leader, all their presentations will come out off tangent and be labelled as bordering on racism. The Chinese and those with chinese sounding last names will embrace that as racism for sure. They should have made a public alliance with Winston's NZ First at best at and maybe that would have come out better :p


disc: not been a National or a Labour voter for the past 5 elections

BlackPeter
16-07-2015, 08:34 AM
Unfortunately what is creating the poor debate, is using this, as if foreign ownership changes will only target Chinese. It wont, it will target all foreign ownership and what Labour have done is highlighted a very real issue of foreign buyers of which the majority are Chinese. They don't have auctions in Auckland translated into French, Japanese or German. Racism is to discriminate against one race over another. The law changes required and what Labour's & NZF's policy is for ALL foreign purchases.
If this is racist, then the rest of the world that has these very common sense laws in place are racist as well.

Daytr, agreed - creating rules against any foreign (i.e. somebody without NZ residency) property buyer is certainly not racist, though it might be unwise (but there is no law against stupidity ...).

However - publishing a flawed analysis of confidential company data based on whether somebodys name sounds Chinese certainly is. I don't think this is a battle Labour can win - but yes, maybe they take some of Winston's voters but loose many to the Greens. Who cares - really, every country has its bad apples in politics. The French have their "Front National", Greece has their "Golden Dawn", Austria has its "Freedom party" and NZ Labour competes with Winston for the most xenophobic position.

Never mind - I guess there is still the so called Green party for Lefties with a bit of moral backbone.

Daytr
16-07-2015, 09:19 AM
Well BP those countries that you referred to before we are emulating in regards home ownership have these sort of rules.
In fact virtually all first world countries have these sort of foreign ownership rules.
So I guess the rest of the world is stupid & we are the only smart ones in the room... Yeah right.

elZorro
16-07-2015, 11:45 AM
Daytr, agreed - creating rules against any foreign (i.e. somebody without NZ residency) property buyer is certainly not racist, though it might be unwise (but there is no law against stupidity ...).

However - publishing a flawed analysis of confidential company data based on whether somebodys name sounds Chinese certainly is. I don't think this is a battle Labour can win - but yes, maybe they take some of Winston's voters but loose many to the Greens. Who cares - really, every country has its bad apples in politics. The French have their "Front National", Greece has their "Golden Dawn", Austria has its "Freedom party" and NZ Labour competes with Winston for the most xenophobic position.

Never mind - I guess there is still the so called Green party for Lefties with a bit of moral backbone.

I guess you can say what you like on a forum, BP, but can you prove Labour's analysis is flawed? You don't have the data, they didn't say anything hard and fast as you imply, and they made every effort to reduce errors in surnames being attributed to just one ethnicity, if there was any doubt.

It is Labour's job to be a strong opposition at the moment, they've started to show that by working on the house sales data they were given, to come up with a fair representation of what is likely to be happening in Auckland. They even compared these results with what is happening in other areas outside Auckland, finding that where house prices are more stable, the sales ethnicity splits line up far more evenly with the domestic population ethnicity in those areas.

Therefore, a reasonable conclusion is that foreign property investors are concentrating on Auckland (the majority of whom happen to have Chinese surnames), and that they are having an effect on prices being paid.

Again, this doesn't lead me to conclude that the Labour Party has no moral backbone. Maybe if I was a rabid ACT/National voter, I'd just say that anyway.

BP, do you think National should solve this issue by running a public register, and do it earlier than October 1st? Should they change the rules on foreign investment in residential property? Or should we let the all-seeing market rule? -don't worry about first home buyers in Auckland.

blackcap
16-07-2015, 12:29 PM
Again, this doesn't lead me to conclude that the Labour Party has no moral backbone. .

What is good for the goose is good for the gander. A staff member was fired.... (something one cannot do in this country without consequences if there is no justification for it) and Labour used this stolen private data.... so no need to talk about moral backbone EZ.

BlackPeter
16-07-2015, 01:00 PM
I guess you can say what you like on a forum, BP, but can you prove Labour's analysis is flawed? You don't have the data, they didn't say anything hard and fast as you imply, and they made every effort to reduce errors in surnames being attributed to just one ethnicity, if there was any doubt.



Hi EZ - you are right, it is much easier to invent a new theory than to prove it is wrong ... particularly if the data provided in the first place have little credibility.

Look - Labour can do as much number acrobatic as it wants on a set of accidently (to be very polite) gathered and unverifiable data. Just make some incredible claims and ask people to believe into them - EZ, that's the stuff religions are made of - not the base for a good and ethical political discussion.

It is Labour's job to not just prove that the data are right (which they haven't done), but as well to explain why they are relevant. Given that a not insignificant proportion of the odd 40 k new immigrants per year happen to come from China (certainly more than the 10% already living here) - why shouldn't they buy as well a larger proportion of new houses for sale? They need to be allowed to live somewhere - don't they?

If Labour would have wanted to add value - then why not just get a sample of say 1000 recently sold houses in Auckland and get somebody to inquire the residence status of the new owner. Maybe we find out that all the Smiths on this list are from the UK and therefore distorting the Auckland housing market?


BP, do you think National should solve this issue by running a public register, and do it earlier than October 1st? Should they change the rules on foreign investment in residential property? Or should we let the all-seeing market rule? -don't worry about first home buyers in Auckland.



Actually - personally I don't think that adding red tape to this situation will add a lot of value ... a wee survey / analysis as described above would be much easier, cheaper and faster to implement. Just look at the new titles (they are a public record, even if you now need to prove a justified interest to see them) ... and if in doubt about the new owners residence status (e.g. the owners living somewhere overseas) - than just give them a wee phone call and ask. In most cases this should be enough. Implementing a new bureaucratic nightmare is just one of these stupid things National did to keep Labour at any cost out of government ... I guess the price we all will pay to keep some populists happy (Thank you Winston and Labour).

Would this proposed analysis add value? Perhaps ... at least it shouldn't cost the world, and if we find out it is really mainly foreign investors (vs immigrants with foreign names) snapping away our houses (hey - only the ones we sell), than by all means lets implement some restrictions for foreign house buyers ... but please: keep - race out of the analysis.

Honestly - I just hope that Labour manages to get all the creepy crawlies back into the can they opened for the sake of a handful of racist votes. Dirty politics, indeed.

Looking at the Auckland housing market - here are some ideas to really make it easier for first home buyers:
- move jobs into the regions, lots of affordable houses out there.
- reduce red tape for building consents
- increase the number of houses / apartments on offer

Inciting racial tensions is neither helpful nor ethical ... just populist.

elZorro
16-07-2015, 03:40 PM
What is good for the goose is good for the gander. A staff member was fired.... (something one cannot do in this country without consequences if there is no justification for it) and Labour used this stolen private data.... so no need to talk about moral backbone EZ.

The staff member was probably fired because of the likely impact on the businesses' reputation amongst foreign buyers. If National had gathered the buyers' data they should have, and made it public as they should have, there would have been no need to wait for a whistle-blower to act in the interests of Auckland's first-home buyers.

Daytr
16-07-2015, 03:47 PM
Sorry BP, I like a lot of others don't want a bigger population. Short & simple.
I don't want NZ to end up like everywhere else in the world with too many people etc,
The data is already available & this register is a nonsense.
Simply marry up registered property owners with the Census.
There is a problem & National are choosing to ignore it. Labour & NZF are highlighting the issue.
National & its supporters are using a diversion tactic of pulling the race card.
As said over & over neither Labour or NZF's policies are racist & you are just pulling out a red herring to divert away from the real issue.
Immigration and foreign property purchases need to be reigned in.

westerly
16-07-2015, 03:53 PM
Maybe Labours got it right.

HTTP://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1495757/next-canada-rich-mainland-chinese-push-new-zealand-migration-11-year-high?page=all

westerly

blackcap
16-07-2015, 03:56 PM
The staff member was probably fired because of the likely impact on the businesses' reputation amongst foreign buyers.

That would be illegal I believe.... so I think the staff member was fired for breaching their contract.

BlackPeter
16-07-2015, 04:14 PM
Sorry BP, I like a lot of others don't want a bigger population. Short & simple.
I don't want NZ to end up like everywhere else in the world with too many people etc,
The data is already available & this register is a nonsense.
Simply marry up registered property owners with the Census.
There is a problem & National are choosing to ignore it. Labour & NZF are highlighting the issue.
National & its supporters are using a diversion tactic of pulling the race card.
As said over & over neither Labour or NZF's policies are racist & you are just pulling out a red herring to divert away from the real issue.
Immigration and foreign property purchases need to be reigned in.

Look daytr, if you feel inconvenienced by an increasing NZ population - this is probably a valid view (though not the only valid one) and a totally different discussion. Successive governments (including Labour) had a different view ... maybe you need to tell them, not me.

Discussing the pros and cons of immigration is a valid discussion in any country. Pulling foreign (or better Chinese) sounding names out of an alleged list of house buyers has nothing to do with an informed discussion about immigration. It is dirty racism - not different to the early Nazi movement in Germany boycotting shops owned by people with "Jewish sounding" names.

If you want a balanced discussion about immigration - be my guest. However I still can't believe that you are really standing up to defend a bunch of politicians who just want to gain political capital out of exposing a racial minority in our society and incite hatred against them. It was not me pulling the race card - it was Labour who said: look at these bad people with Chinese sounding name, they bought a house which otherwise some first home buyer with Anglo-Saxon sounding name could have got. Surely - you can't be that blind that you don't see what's wrong with this cheap attack against Chinese in our society?

Daytr
16-07-2015, 05:07 PM
No its not a different discussion its directly related. Immigration & foreign property ownership quite obviously tie directly in with population.

It wasn't an attack it was data. You are blowing this out of all proportion as is the media & as I said its a red herring, diverting from the real issue.
You do like extremes, last week it was pedophiles, mass murderers & now Nazis. This is why I put myself forward for the role of counsellor ...
You can choose to ignore facts or work with them.
Chinese property buying is having a massive influence on the property market in Auckland.
There are dedicated real estate agents targeting offshore Chinese buyers, these are all facts.
Auctions translated in Chinese for the same reason.
Now this could be any group of people, but right now its the Chinese as they are growing super power in the world, like Japan was 40 years ago.
The main difference this time around is that there are around 15 times as many Chinese than Japanese so the impact will be & is much bigger.
So something can either be done about it, or let it continue unabated as National are choosing to let happen.
All the policies are across all nationalities they are not racist as you have agreed, so stick to discussing policy rather than red herrings.
Your option was to push them to the regions. Who would fund the required infrastructure? Sewage, roading etc? It would be far more expensive than having them centralized in Auckland & it appears its not what (immigrants) they want.
I for one don't want to share my fishing spots with any more people! ;-)

BlackPeter
16-07-2015, 05:34 PM
You do like extremes, last week it was pedophiles, mass murderers & now Nazis. This is why I put myself forward for the role of counsellor ...


How you must love these terms. I used them once some days ago - and I think in a quite appropriate context, but you continue to parrotting these terms without the context I used on a basically daily basis. Maybe you should start to counsel yourself?

Related to the Nazi - example - I think it is quite appropriate. Not sure whether you learned history at all in school, but if you replace "Chinese" with "Jewish" in Labour's statements - that's how it started in Germany in the mid 1930'ies. Germans have been asked to boycott Jewish shops. No talk at that stage about killing Jews or starting a war against everybody, just don't buy from them. Sure - we all know how the Nazi story ended - but at this stage I compare the beginnings, and they are quite similar.

By the way - how do you think that Chinese or other Asian NZ citizens feel about Labour inciting racial hatred against people with Chinese sounding names? I guess you don't care - do you?

I am not sure - maybe you just keep this discussion going to damage the Labour party (you insist of being no "Leftie" ...), but in case you want to support them, than I propose you stop digging :p.

Sgt Pepper
16-07-2015, 09:04 PM
John Keys address to fed farmers November 2014

Key says dairy upturn closeThe question was where the price would go “and my view is that it is going to bottom out pretty soon and start going back the other way”.

elZorro
16-07-2015, 10:09 PM
John Keys address to fed farmers November 2014

Key says dairy upturn closeThe question was where the price would go “and my view is that it is going to bottom out pretty soon and start going back the other way”.

Just as well he's not in futures trading anymore. Or is he?

Stoploss posted articles on the huge size of dairy production facilities in China, on another thread (http://www.fwi.co.uk/livestock/china-building-100000-cow-dairy-unit-to-supply-russian-market.htm). We designed the herringbone shed, the rotary dairy platform (http://pukeariki.com/Learning-Research/Taranaki-Research-Centre/Taranaki-Stories/Taranaki-Story/id/464/title/eltham-man-turns-milking-around)too. Look how well that's going for us. They don't just have one rotary platform in these massive overseas factories, they'll have dozens of them. Often run by Chinese workers at a fraction of the hourly rates that NZ farmers pay, and a lot more efficiently, a 24 hour cycle. The milk is being produced using feedstock bought in from elsewhere, the milk and byproducts are produced relatively close to their markets, no major transport costs. NZ firms are helping this process along.

https://agrihq.co.nz/article/milking-platforms-set-sail-into-new-era?p=379

My question is, what do you do with a dairy farm in NZ, when it's not worth milking cows on it?

BlackPeter
17-07-2015, 08:00 AM
Surely - Leftie's always claiming they could further improve NZ's place in the world (and how hard they work by inciting racism ...) - but actually achieving place 6 out of 144 in government efficiency (according to the latest WEF report) is not too bad for the current government - isn't it?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/70304890/New-Zealand-worlds-sixth-most-efficient-government-report?cid=edm:stuff:dailyheadlines&bid=286639


New Zealand has the sixth most efficient government in the world, according to a report by the World Economic Forum (WEF).

The WEF's Global Competitiveness Report 2014 - 2015 rated the efficiency of 144 of the world's governments.

Its efficiency criteria including wasteful government spending, heaviness of regulation and transparent policymaking.

The report found the world's most efficient government was Qatar, followed by Singapore, Finland, Hong Kong and the United Arab Emirates.

Venezuela led the world for inefficiency, with Italy second ahead of Argentina, Lebanon and Libya.

Daytr
17-07-2015, 08:43 AM
Actually your mention of the other extremes were completely out of context & you chose to go there. Perhaps read your own posts.

Really, relating Labour to Nazis is quite appropriate ? Give me a break.
One minute people on here are calling them communists & now they are Nazis.
I wish the extreme right would make up their mind.
So me saying Northland is around 50% Maori, or 50% European for that matter, would make me a Nazi as well would it?
Virtually every government document asks if you are of Maori decent. Is this racist? Or is it just gathering information that can be used?
Its not that I don't care, its a beat up & again you seem to want to concentrate on the red herring & beef up than the issue at hand.
I studied history & like most people I know where the policies of the 3rd Reich led. Are you really implying that's where Labour would take us?
If someone is perpetuating hatred, referring to one of the major political organizations as having Nazis policy or antics could perhaps be described as the same.
Disgraceful & I suggest we move on as its not in my everyday life that I need to discuss mass murder, pedophiles & Nazis in reference to NZ politics.
You have said that I only look at the negatives and I'm not constructive enough, (which I happen to disagree with) well this sort of conversation is more than negative, its down right perverse.


How you must love these terms. I used them once some days ago - and I think in a quite appropriate context, but you continue to parrotting these terms without the context I used on a basically daily basis. Maybe you should start to counsel yourself?

Related to the Nazi - example - I think it is quite appropriate. Not sure whether you learned history at all in school, but if you replace "Chinese" with "Jewish" in Labour's statements - that's how it started in Germany in the mid 1930'ies. Germans have been asked to boycott Jewish shops. No talk at that stage about killing Jews or starting a war against everybody, just don't buy from them. Sure - we all know how the Nazi story ended - but at this stage I compare the beginnings, and they are quite similar.

By the way - how do you think that Chinese or other Asian NZ citizens feel about Labour inciting racial hatred against people with Chinese sounding names? I guess you don't care - do you?

I am not sure - maybe you just keep this discussion going to damage the Labour party (you insist of being no "Leftie" ...), but in case you want to support them, than I propose you stop digging :p.

Major von Tempsky
17-07-2015, 09:11 AM
But are Communists and Nazis any different from each other? As you go further to the right end of the political spectrum you get closer and closer to the left end of the spectrum and the politics become more and more identical in practice.

Take Hitler and Stalin. In practice how were their policies any different? They weren't. Both practiced total government intervention in the economy, both eliminated millions of people on racial or other grounds, both invaded other countries at the drop of a hat, both were totally cynical and hypocritical, both ignored the rule of law and both were totally undemocratic although Hitler did win more than one referendum. If you are going to accuse someone of being a Nazi you may as well accuse them of being a Communist at the same time. Don't forget NAZI came from National Socialist movement, it had it's roots in the German working classes. Which socialist/communist party in the world today is not also a patriotic nationalist movement? None. Trotsky lost out decades ago and has never been replaced. According to Marxist theory the Communist state, when it had achieved its objectives would wither away - no sign of that happening. Or maybe it's just another sign of the identity of the political extremes "that government governs best which governs least" parallels the withering away of the Communist state. Given the identity of the 2 extremes what is the point of calling someone a Nazi or a Communist? They are both the same!

Daytr
17-07-2015, 09:19 AM
MVT, yes I think we know the political spectrum is circular, however Labour or National are neither which is more the point I am making.
I have said previously some of National's policies are far right or extreme right, but I would refrain from relating them to being Nazis as its ridiculous, although I could suggest they persecute the poor in favour of the better off...
Calling either National or Labour Nazis or that sort of extreme is right up there with dirty politics & quite frankly does no one any favours, particularly those espousing such nonsense.

winner69
17-07-2015, 09:33 AM
EZ, you got this book yet?

‘The FIRE Economy’. Jane Kelsey

Might ty and find a copy


http://www.interest.co.nz/business/76568/jane-kelsey-warns-were-economic-doom-if-we-dont-stop-trying-make-money-money

BlackPeter
17-07-2015, 10:55 AM
nice summary (and plenty of reading material) - Labour gets lots of flak (including from its own ranks):

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11481530

Ah yes - and if you like cartoons (I know many on this thread do) - here are plenty:

http://liberation.typepad.com/liberation/2015/07/john-moore-labours-asian-bashing-shows-a-party-devoid-of-ideas.html

BlackPeter
17-07-2015, 11:08 AM
Oh yes ... didn't thought that I might enjoy to read a recent Green Party blog, but this is worthwhile reading. Daytr & EZ, I am sure you will love this one as well:

http://shinbonestar.org/2015/07/11/labours-descent/

Daytr
17-07-2015, 11:10 AM
Well its quite apparent that's what you & other right wingers want people to think.
Ever heard the phrase "one doth protest too much"
The right smell blood for political gain after having such a bad run over the last nine months.
Key must be salivating & itching to tug on a pony tail or two! haha

winner69
17-07-2015, 12:48 PM
Still getting requests from Labour and sending emails to John to help your team out

But everybody seems to have a double barrelled name

What's this Lees-Galloway guy like?

Last week it was from Smith-Cutting

Sgt Pepper
17-07-2015, 01:21 PM
Well its quite apparent that's what you & other right wingers want people to think.
Ever heard the phrase "one doth protest too much"
The right smell blood for political gain after having such a bad run over the last nine months.
Key must be salivating & itching to tug on a pony tail or two! haha

Daytr

I note no comments from the right wing posters to my post regarding John Keys observation that Dairy prices had bottomed out in November 2014 and it was onwards and upwards from there.

Daytr
17-07-2015, 01:32 PM
Haha, I didn't realize that was from 2014, I thought he may have just made it.
I make those sort of calls all the time, however he may have let his political desires sway his judgment as its not like we haven't seen that trait before...
;-)

westerly
17-07-2015, 05:18 PM
Oh yes ... didn't thought that I might enjoy to read a recent Green Party blog, but this is worthwhile reading. Daytr & EZ, I am sure you will love this one as well:

http://shinbonestar.org/2015/07/11/labours-descent/

The opinion of a recently arrived migrant who has decided the colonials need the benefit of his wisdom is hardly relevant. For a more balanced opinion try- http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/70275748/not-racist-to-target-chinese-housing-investors

westerly

elZorro
17-07-2015, 06:00 PM
EZ, you got this book yet?

‘The FIRE Economy’. Jane Kelsey

Might ty and find a copy


http://www.interest.co.nz/business/76568/jane-kelsey-warns-were-economic-doom-if-we-dont-stop-trying-make-money-money

It does look interesting, W69. She wrote "The NZ Experiment" of course.

I try to make money from making stuff, I guess I'm in the wrong game.

BlackPeter
17-07-2015, 08:25 PM
The opinion of a recently arrived migrant who has decided the colonials need the benefit of his wisdom is hardly relevant. For a more balanced opinion try- http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/70275748/not-racist-to-target-chinese-housing-investors

westerly

Cute, westerley. So you are saying that only an at least second generation NZ socialist knows what racism and xenophobia is? How dare a recent import from the British islands teach old hands like you - outrageous, isn't it? Always good to learn from an expert like you ... and I understand now why Mr Twyford is so good in exercising these skills ... :D

elZorro
18-07-2015, 09:32 AM
Cute, westerley. So you are saying that only an at least second generation NZ socialist knows what racism and xenophobia is? How dare a recent import from the British islands teach old hands like you - outrageous, isn't it? Always good to learn from an expert like you ... and I understand now why Mr Twyford is so good in exercising these skills ... :D

BP, none of that stacks up. You are doing all you can to support a National/Act govt, but it's no use. Without enough tax income to balance the books this side of 2017, with rampant house prices in Auckland spurring on the property market for a crash, and with many in fear of losing their jobs in the wake of the low dairy cheque (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11482709&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+18 +July+2015), there will be a change in political sentiment (https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/business/winston-peters-the-nz-economy-is-heading-for-a-full-blown-cyclone-q01936.html)before the next election.

National's poor policies (or lack of policies) will undo them in the end. Pity the rest of us have to pay the price.

New Labour proposal on prov tax looks useful, one part of it anyway. No penalty fee if you get the prov payments wrong. Predicting your tax a year in advance is often difficult. I haven't looked at the detail, but it would be fair if the interest rate on overdue payments was the same as the interest rate paid on overpayments. Or even, no interest rate at all. The IRD doesn't need to be a bank.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/small-business-sme/news/article.cfm?c_id=85&objectid=11482508&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+18 +July+2015

The latest Roy Morgan Poll. This one, I can agree with.












National takes big hit in latest Roy Morgan NZ pollFriday, 17 July 2015, 5:33 pm
Article: BusinessDesk (http://info.scoop.co.nz/BusinessDesk)



National takes big hit in latest Roy Morgan NZ poll
By Pattrick Smellie
July 17 (BusinessDesk) - The National Party has lost more than 10 percent of its support in two months, as measured by the New Zealand arm of Australian pollster Roy Morgan, to run neck and neck at 45 percent support, with its coalition partners, against a combination of the Labour and Green parties for the first time since five months before last September's general election.
Labour and the Greens at 45 percent lead National at 43.5 percent, although 1.5 percentage points of combined support for National's four seat parliamentary partnership with the Maori, Act and United Future parties puts the two blocs at an equal 45 percent. In its May poll, which showed much higher support for National than other publicly available polls, Roy Morgan NZ had National at 54 percent support. The same poll had National at 46.5 percent in March.
If an election were held today, the New Zealand First party of Winston Peters would determine who forms a government, with 7 percent support, up 0.5 percentage points since Roy Morgan NZ's last political poll, in June. The same agency released polling showing a marked increase in concern about the economy among New Zealanders earlier this week.
The poll of 886 people was taken in the early days of this month, before this week's Labour Party attack on the level of foreign, especially mainland Chinese ownership, of Auckland residential real estate and the very low prices for dairy products in the global auction held overnight on Wednesday.



The latest poll shows Labour and the Greens command 45 percent of the vote, compared to the National Party's 43.5 percent support, bolstered to 45 percent support by 1.5 percentage points of support for the Maori (1.5 percent) and Act (0.5 percent), with the United Party, holding one territorial seat in the 121 seat Parliament, registering zero again.
Most encouraging for Labour is that it gained 6 of the 6.5 percentage point gain to record 32 percent support, while the Greens were unchanged at 13 percent after changing last month from male co-leader Russel Norman to James Shaw.
Despite covering a period in which the Conservative Party appeared to implode, with the ousting of founder and financial backer Colin Craig, its support touched 1.5 percent, up on 1 percent on a month earlier, although below the statistical margin of error for significance.(BusinessDesk)

BlackPeter
18-07-2015, 10:14 AM
BP, none of that stacks up.

EZ, only thing I did in my recent post was praising westerly's self declared wisdom, authority and experience in all things racism. So you say this does not stack up and I can't really trust him? Ah well, maybe you Lefties should sort out internally who of you is credible and who not - too confusing for me.:p

Re Labours tax proposal - haven't yet fully digested it, but given the currently quite ridiculous situation with provisional tax (pay it whether you earn something or not) would I think it only can mean an improvement. Certainly worthwhile to start a discussion on it. See - it is possible for the Left to make positive contributions to the political discussion without drawing the race card - why not always that way?

elZorro
18-07-2015, 10:30 AM
EZ, only thing I did in my recent post was praising westerly's self declared wisdom, authority and experience in all things racism. So you say this does not stack up and I can't really trust him? Ah well, maybe you Lefties should sort out internally who of you is credible and who not - too confusing for me.:p

Re Labours tax proposal - haven't yet fully digested it, but given the currently quite ridiculous situation with provisional tax (pay it whether you earn something or not) would I think it only can mean an improvement. Certainly worthwhile to start a discussion on it. See - it is possible for the Left to make positive contributions to the political discussion without drawing the race card - why not always that way?

BP, I can see what you're doing, linking Labour with searchable words for the google search engine. I'm not going to add to it. Labour worked as well as they could on the supplied data, and produced a report. They had also researched other geographical areas, so they knew they were on solid ground with some general conclusions.

About the prov tax, as far as I am aware, any business is within their rights to decide their own prov tax payments, ignoring the guideline from an accountant, it's just that at the moment, they risk being clobbered with substantial penalty interest and costs if they are more than a few thousand dollars out. With this low dairy cheque, many businesses will know their chances of stellar profits in the next year or two are minimal, and they'll be adjusting their prov payments right now, probably cancelling them. The National Govt and Treasury will see all this soon enough.

More bad dairy news sinking in. This is very bad, Liam Dann doesn't even want to look at the camera. Note the comments.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/best-of-business-analysis/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501241&objectid=11482061&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+18 +July+2015

Daytr
18-07-2015, 11:07 AM
Hey BP, maybe do a google search with the combination of John Key and ponytail. I pulled up 697,000 results! Ha ha
I think you need a new dictionary in regards the definition of racism.
I'm European of English/Irish decent. Saying that must make me racist in your book.

BlackPeter
18-07-2015, 11:09 AM
BP, I can see what you're doing, linking Labour with searchable words for the google search engine. I'm not going to add to it. Labour worked as well as they could on the supplied data, and produced a report. They had also researched other geographical areas, so they knew they were on solid ground with some general conclusions.



I didn't do anything. It was Labour who decided to put a white guy in front of the media telling a story that they have been combing some data records for Chinese sounding names - and that he found too many of them. How exactly did Labour think that this might play out?

elZorro
18-07-2015, 11:25 AM
I didn't do anything. It was Labour who decided to put a white guy in front of the media telling a story that they have been combing some data records for Chinese sounding names - and that he found too many of them. How exactly did Labour think that this might play out?

If they'd been mostly Russian, Arabic, Indian, Scandinavian surnames say, they'd have been able to distinguish those too, and reported on it. There could still be substantial European overseas investors, they're just harder to dig out because there are a lot of European surnames here. But in any case, a near majority of buyers appeared to have Asian surnames, that's just how it worked out.

Compare that to National's "story", and that's what it is, that only a low few percent of house sales in Auckland are going to overseas Chinese investors, and that is the main message. The NZ public is being told a huge fib/lie by our National govt. They are welcome to prove Labour wrong.

winner69
18-07-2015, 11:27 AM
Hey BP, maybe do a google search with the combination of John Key and ponytail. I pulled up 697,000 results! Ha ha
I think you need a new dictionary in regards the definition of racism.
I'm European of English/Irish decent. Saying that must make me racist in your book.

Yeah gods, John pulled 697,000 ponytails. That's a lot of ponytails

Must have pulled a few several times I reckon

BlackPeter
18-07-2015, 11:32 AM
More bad dairy news sinking in. This is very bad, Liam Dann doesn't even want to look at the camera. Note the comments.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/best-of-business-analysis/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501241&objectid=11482061&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+18 +July+2015

Hi EZ, don't despair ... I remember Labour complaining for many years about the high NZ dollar. Now - looks like we cracked this problem - a huge boost for our export industry. Looking forward to profitable times ...

Yes - dairy is an unfortunate exception, and hey - this just happens if you give a lazy coop quasi monopoly status. A bunch of greedy self serving managers enjoyed splashing other people's money away with questionable ventures overseas (remember the Chinese melamine crisis) and without sufficient focus on internal quality control (remember also the 2013 botulism scandal).

What they should have done is diversifying their production from boring staples everybody can produce to value added specialities ... and obviously care more about quality than about rising the top managers salaries.

Just remind me - wasn't Fonterra formed under Labours watch? So - if we follow for a moment your logic that the government is responsible for everything - why is it more National's than Labour's fault that this industry is in a crisis?

BlackPeter
18-07-2015, 05:13 PM
BP, I can see what you're doing, linking Labour with searchable words for the google search engine. I'm not going to add to it. Labour worked as well as they could on the supplied data, and produced a report. They had also researched other geographical areas, so they knew they were on solid ground with some general conclusions.



Hi EZ, on a second thought - not quite sure, what you accused me of doing with the google search engine, but just wondering - is Labour perhaps trying to get in damage control related to this story? Did the party just tell you to avoid this subject in social media to keep the debate about Labours race baiting low key?

Not sure whether it is possible to put the race card back, but doing the honest thing and issue an apology and maybe pull Mr Twysomething (looks like I forgot his name already) and whoever authorised this campaign would certainly be a better solution than just smothering the debate. This could even help to return the discussion towards solving an existing problem (the Auckland housing crisis, which is clearly real), instead of Labour creating new problems by inciting xenophobia.

Just a thought ...

westerly
18-07-2015, 05:38 PM
[QUOTE=BlackPeter;581794]Cute, westerley. So you are saying that only an at least second generation NZ socialist knows what racism and xenophobia is? How dare a recent import from the British islands teach old hands like you - outrageous, isn't it? Always good to learn from an expert like you ... and I understand now why Mr Twyford is so good in exercising these skills ... :D[/QUOTE

No one would describe me as cute BP However you do seem to have a unique way of interpreting other peoples posts.

westerly

elZorro
18-07-2015, 06:06 PM
Hi EZ, don't despair ... I remember Labour complaining for many years about the high NZ dollar. Now - looks like we cracked this problem - a huge boost for our export industry. Looking forward to profitable times ...

Yes - dairy is an unfortunate exception, and hey - this just happens if you give a lazy coop quasi monopoly status. A bunch of greedy self serving managers enjoyed splashing other people's money away with questionable ventures overseas (remember the Chinese melamine crisis) and without sufficient focus on internal quality control (remember also the 2013 botulism scandal).

What they should have done is diversifying their production from boring staples everybody can produce to value added specialities ... and obviously care more about quality than about rising the top managers salaries.

Just remind me - wasn't Fonterra formed under Labours watch? So - if we follow for a moment your logic that the government is responsible for everything - why is it more National's than Labour's fault that this industry is in a crisis?

Fonterra was formed in 2001, but it's a joint co-operative for farmers, so it didn't need much government direction. I'm not sure in which post I ever said that Fonterra is doing a bad job of anything, technically. Rod Oram isn't too sure about their policies for growth and profits, but I know their plants are technically leading edge, and they have very good engineers and highly trained operators.

National's fault, which many commentators are also picking up on, is that they thought dairying would be the backbone of NZ, no problem. It's now going to be a big problem for the economy. Some of our dairy farms will need to downsize herds, maybe convert to sheep/beef or cropping. Too many new plants are being started up overseas, big milking plants with up to 100,000 cows. Using our gear, our technology, but cheap labour. We are not going to see high milkfat prices here again, not unless the market is a lot bigger than it is at the moment.

Our R&D efforts in other areas have been idling since National came to power, we don't have many new exports, that's a fault of government direction being lacking. Yes, we've now achieved a low exchange rate, but it'll make our imports more expensive, it's always a two-edged sword. The low exchange rate says that overseas investors see our prospects being worse than they were, not better.

BlackPeter
19-07-2015, 09:15 AM
[QUOTE=BlackPeter;581794]Cute, westerley. So you are saying that only an at least second generation NZ socialist knows what racism and xenophobia is? How dare a recent import from the British islands teach old hands like you - outrageous, isn't it? Always good to learn from an expert like you ... and I understand now why Mr Twyford is so good in exercising these skills ... :D[/QUOTE

No one would describe me as cute BP However you do seem to have a unique way of interpreting other peoples posts.

westerly

Westerly, I wouldn't dare to describe you in a public forum ... I was only referring to your post :D

Jantar
19-07-2015, 09:25 AM
...... We are not going to see high milkfat prices here again, not unless the market is a lot bigger than it is at the moment.
......
I recall seeing that same comment about sheepmeat prices some 20 years ago, and that prompted many farmers to convert to Dairy. However store lambs are now fetching around $80 each, and that is very profitable.

BlackPeter
19-07-2015, 09:54 AM
Our R&D efforts in other areas have been idling since National came to power, we don't have many new exports, that's a fault of government direction being lacking. Yes, we've now achieved a low exchange rate, but it'll make our imports more expensive, it's always a two-edged sword. The low exchange rate says that overseas investors see our prospects being worse than they were, not better.

They just can't win, can they? I remember the Lefties on this thread whining for years about the government being responsible for the high exchange rate - and now it is lower, it is all bad ...

And looking at your other claim re having no new exports - is this really true? Lets start with agriculture: Wine industry is thriving, red meats are going well, pip fruit are doing very well, thank you. Kiwifruit are doing well and I hear wool and lambs are up as well. And even the dairy industry is not all bleak .... sure, farmers are hurting (and I never heard you before showing them your sympathy) but the industry itself? Sure - Fonterra - boring coop and near monopoly are not doing well - but SML might be in for a surprise ...

Other industries ... tourism is doing quite well and poised to rise next season - recently been in Queenstown? Just look at THL and AIR - do they look like curling up their nails anytime soon?

Now lets look into the technical industries: FPH had an outstanding handful of years and no end of the growth cycle visible; SKL and MVN are as I think quite well positioned and the lower dollar can only help; Lots of successful startups over the last 7 years or so. Just some from memory: XRO, OHE, WYN, GTK, ERD. Sure - not all of them make money - yet (as startups do), but thanks to the lower dollar the future for them looks certainly brighter. I am sure that if & when Labour gets at any stage back into power you will be the first to claim their success as Labour's.

EZ, you would make a marvelous Cassandra ... and I can't imagine you are feeling good about this constant whining yourself. Look - this is not what a good opposition is about. Wouldn't it be amazing if you folks could start to add some value instead of just trying to make everybody (including yourself) feeling miserable?

----
And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother's eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye? (Matthew 7:3)

elZorro
20-07-2015, 06:46 AM
They just can't win, can they? I remember the Lefties on this thread whining for years about the government being responsible for the high exchange rate - and now it is lower, it is all bad ...

And looking at your other claim re having no new exports - is this really true? Lets start with agriculture: Wine industry is thriving, red meats are going well, pip fruit are doing very well, thank you. Kiwifruit are doing well and I hear wool and lambs are up as well. And even the dairy industry is not all bleak .... sure, farmers are hurting (and I never heard you before showing them your sympathy) but the industry itself? Sure - Fonterra - boring coop and near monopoly are not doing well - but SML might be in for a surprise ...

Other industries ... tourism is doing quite well and poised to rise next season - recently been in Queenstown? Just look at THL and AIR - do they look like curling up their nails anytime soon?

Now lets look into the technical industries: FPH had an outstanding handful of years and no end of the growth cycle visible; SKL and MVN are as I think quite well positioned and the lower dollar can only help; Lots of successful startups over the last 7 years or so. Just some from memory: XRO, OHE, WYN, GTK, ERD. Sure - not all of them make money - yet (as startups do), but thanks to the lower dollar the future for them looks certainly brighter. I am sure that if & when Labour gets at any stage back into power you will be the first to claim their success as Labour's.

EZ, you would make a marvelous Cassandra ... and I can't imagine you are feeling good about this constant whining yourself. Look - this is not what a good opposition is about. Wouldn't it be amazing if you folks could start to add some value instead of just trying to make everybody (including yourself) feeling miserable?


BP, this article is mostly apprehensive about the economy. I'm mindful that the govt tax take has dipped heavily under National's terms, has crept back to be slightly above what Labour achieved in 2008 (just after the high dairy payout year), but has not yet allowed a budget surplus for the National govt. Despite all the number shuffling, selling of assets, sinking lids, etc. Therefore, it looks to me like we have been watching the economy downsize in relative terms. We have a higher population, but we are starting to see the stresses of finding gainful employment for all who want to work.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/70337240/company-profits-will-be-impacted-by-the-falling-new-zealand-dollar?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+20+J uly+2015

if all of those sectors you mention are going gangbusters, shouldn't there have been a fairly massive company tax income for the National govt? And will all of these sectors make up for the negative income overall, for the regionally huge dairy sector?

BlackPeter
20-07-2015, 08:00 AM
BP, this article is mostly apprehensive about the economy. I'm mindful that the govt tax take has dipped heavily under National's terms, has crept back to be slightly above what Labour achieved in 2008 (just after the high dairy payout year), but has not yet allowed a budget surplus for the National govt. Despite all the number shuffling, selling of assets, sinking lids, etc. Therefore, it looks to me like we have been watching the economy downsize in relative terms. We have a higher population, but we are starting to see the stresses of finding gainful employment for all who want to work.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/70337240/company-profits-will-be-impacted-by-the-falling-new-zealand-dollar?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+20+J uly+2015



EZ, quite funny - the article you linked to is actually quite balanced and in parts even quite upbeat about the economic situation. I guess this happens if you only read the first screen and not the whole article :p

Here are some snippets I found in your article:


In recent days we have started to see analysts prepare for this earnings season.
Already a few analysts have upgraded profit forecasts for some companies with global earnings.
For instance, Macquarie have reduced their New Zealand dollar forecasts in the short and medium term to a level of US60c and this will flow through to their forecasts for earnings and valuations. But there is more to come.



As an extreme example in May Diligent provided sales guidance of $98 million US dollars for the 2015 calendar year.
Analysts conduct all their analysis in US dollars for Diligent. The consensus range among five analysts is US$92m-US$100m.
In June that equated to a range of $119-$136mn using a variety of broker assumptions around exchange rates.
Today using US66c the average forecast would be $137m (with a spread of $131m-$142m).
Changes to actual valuations of Diligent will vary significantly according to the exchange rates analysts use in their models.
Most will develop a US dollar valuation and convert that valuation at the spot foreign exchange rate. At the time of writing no one has published a report with new valuations for Diligent but it seems likely that New Zealand dollar valuations and target prices will rise by between 5 per cent-15 per cent.



The same is so for NZ exporters. Although dairy is attracting the headlines some exporters are seeing better global pricing.
Companies like Scales, with significant exposure to apples, could potentially report a better outlook, and tech and healthcare companies exporting to the US should see a material improvement in the outlook for sales.


All gloom and doom? I don't think so ... unless you are wearing your left-wing blinkers ....;)

craic
20-07-2015, 08:05 AM
BP, this article is mostly apprehensive about the economy. I'm mindful that the govt tax take has dipped heavily under National's terms, has crept back to be slightly above what Labour achieved in 2008 (just after the high dairy payout year), but has not yet allowed a budget surplus for the National govt. Despite all the number shuffling, selling of assets, sinking lids, etc. Therefore, it looks to me like we have been watching the economy downsize in relative terms. We have a higher population, but we are starting to see the stresses of finding gainful employment for all who want to work.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/70337240/company-profits-will-be-impacted-by-the-falling-new-zealand-dollar?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+20+J uly+2015

if all of those sectors you mention are going gangbusters, shouldn't there have been a fairly massive company tax income for the National govt? And will all of these sectors make up for the negative income overall, for the regionally huge dairy sector?

You have been pushing this wheel barrow with the squeaky wheel for and if oil doesn't fix it then a new barrow is in order. Read HB Today on the bottom of the Herald site and you will find out that the pip fruit industry here is roaring with highest export prices while fruit is being wasted by being left on trees because of the dire shortage of pickers. Sooner or later, those who are most resistant to work, in Auckland or other centres will need to be re-directed by a cut in the benefits, to areas like this where the shortage is so great that even imported temporary labour can't fill the gap. South of Hastings good houses for under $200,000. Beneficiaries with children could afford a house, enjoy good schools, and have work for at least part of the year and possibly learn to cook because of the fewer number of fast food outlets in Southern Hawkes Bay. And there is cell phone coverage I'm told, not that I use one myself. But the sad part is that there are several months of this year, twelve months of next year, andeight or nine months of the next year before your dream of a labour heaven can even begin.

BlackPeter
20-07-2015, 08:12 AM
if all of those sectors you mention are going gangbusters, shouldn't there have been a fairly massive company tax income for the National govt? And will all of these sectors make up for the negative income overall, for the regionally huge dairy sector?

Hi EZ, I think you just gave us a fine example to demonstrate the difference between left wing and centre / right thinking.

You are complaining about an in your view insufficient tax take (which, even if your claim would be true, would only point to past economic performance). Clear demonstration that left politics is trying to assess the economy by looking into the rear mirror.

I was talking about the amazing opportunities which lie ahead for our economy.

Spot the difference?

I personally prefer a government looking ahead rather than whinging about the past ... but hey - "de gustibus non est disputandum"

iceman
20-07-2015, 08:25 AM
You have been pushing this wheel barrow with the squeaky wheel for and if oil doesn't fix it then a new barrow is in order. Read HB Today on the bottom of the Herald site and you will find out that the pip fruit industry here is roaring with highest export prices while fruit is being wasted by being left on trees because of the dire shortage of pickers. Sooner or later, those who are most resistant to work, in Auckland or other centres will need to be re-directed by a cut in the benefits, to areas like this where the shortage is so great that even imported temporary labour can't fill the gap. South of Hastings good houses for under $200,000. Beneficiaries with children could afford a house, enjoy good schools, and have work for at least part of the year and possibly learn to cook because of the fewer number of fast food outlets in Southern Hawkes Bay. And there is cell phone coverage I'm told, not that I use one myself. But the sad part is that there are several months of this year, twelve months of next year, andeight or nine months of the next year before your dream of a labour heaven can even begin.

Craic don't know if you read Duncan Garner's piece on the Stuff website yesterday. He actually spent a week in the regions, well south of the Bombay Hills and discovered a different NZ. Including a poultry farm in Foxton that had NO takers when they advertised jobs paying $30 per hour. I would have expected some of EZ's hard done by unemployed to apply.

Sgt Pepper
20-07-2015, 08:51 AM
Craic don't know if you read Duncan Garner's piece on the Stuff website yesterday. He actually spent a week in the regions, well south of the Bombay Hills and discovered a different NZ. Including a poultry farm in Foxton that had NO takers when they advertised jobs paying . I would have expected some of EZ's hard done by unemployed to apply.

Iceman

regarding poultry farm jobs paying $30.00 per hour. Are you sure???. Based on a working year at 2086hours that's $62 400 per annum. I checked other Poultry farm jobs advertised and the pay rates were $16.00 per hour. I will check with someone who works at the hospital I work at. Her family have a large poultry business.

iceman
20-07-2015, 09:34 AM
Iceman

regarding poultry farm jobs paying $30.00 per hour. Are you sure???. Based on a working year at 2086hours that's $62 400 per annum. I checked other Poultry farm jobs advertised and the pay rates were $16.00 per hour. I will check with someone who works at the hospital I work at. Her family have a large poultry business.

Yes I am sure I am quoting the article correctly. Here it is http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/comment/columnists/70316372/duncan-garner-one-people-two-nzs-the-good-life-south-of-the-bombay-hills

Sgt Pepper
20-07-2015, 10:24 AM
Yes I am sure I am quoting the article correctly. Here it is http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/comment/columnists/70316372/duncan-garner-one-people-two-nzs-the-good-life-south-of-the-bombay-hills

thanks, yes I read the article. Wow that must be a very profitable poultry business to pay workers twice the industry rate. I have sat on a board of directors for a health insurance company and set remuneration policies. although we paid staff above industry standards we could not have contemplated , or afforded twice the going rate.

winner69
20-07-2015, 12:04 PM
Goodness gracious me - the economy seems to be rollicking along

NZ services sector hits most buoyant level in 11 months in June
.

Monday 20th July 2015

New Zealand's services sector, which accounts for about two thirds of the economy, was at its most buoyant level in 11 months in June.

The BNZ BusinessNZ performance of services index rose 0.1 point to a seasonally adjusted 58.2 last month, its highest level since July 2014, and extending a run of continuous expansion since October 2009. All of the five sub-indices were above the 50 reading that separates contraction from expansion.

The improved performance in the services sector comes after a similarly upbeat gauge of the manufacturing sector last week. The BNZ BusinessNZ performance of manufacturing index rose to a seasonally adjusted 55.2, the highest level since February with all components in expansion.

"Whether parsed by region, industry type, or firm size, every bit of the PSI was in expansion mode, which is rare," Bank of New Zealand senior economist Craig Ebert said. "Combined with the improved PMI reading for June, the latest PSI paints a picture of an economy expanding robustly, probably a little better than average."

The performance of composite index, which combines the two measures, increased 0.6 of a point to 57.8 on a GDP weighted basis, and rose 1.5 points to 57.2 on a free weighted basis, the closest the two measures have been to each other since December last year.

While the current measure were buoyant, economists expect New Zealand's economic growth to slow as weaker commodity prices weigh on the country's main exports and earnings. The Reserve Bank is expected to reduce the benchmark interest by 25 basis points this week to bolster the economy, with further cuts predicted before the end of the year.

The latest PSI showed activity/sales weakened to 60.2 in June from 62.9 in May, while new orders/business edged lower to 63 from 63.1. Employment slipped to a reading of 54.2 from 56.3, while stocks/inventories advanced to 53.4 from 50.5, and supplier deliveries increased to 56.1 from 49.9.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/0...hs-in-junehtml

BlackPeter
20-07-2015, 01:17 PM
Hey winner, bad timing. Just spare a thought for the poor EZ who's job it seems to be to tell us constantly how bad things are under a National led coalition government. Good economic news just make his life more miserable .... :crying:

Daytr
20-07-2015, 01:47 PM
Well its good to see something is going well under National, as there is very little else for them to crow about.
What did the Queen say one time, annus horribilis. John Key must be thinking along similar lines.
They are having an absolute shocker. I might slip a ponytail in the post for him, just to give the poor man a bit of comfort & so he doesn't pick on some poor waitress in the nearest café. ;-)

Major von Tempsky
20-07-2015, 02:09 PM
Yawn!
Actually I don't find your posts helpful, you fail to understand how NZ politics works....

Daytr
20-07-2015, 02:17 PM
Ha ha insightful as ever MVT !
The recent polls are telling me exactly how NZ politics works with National loosing popularity & Winston likely to be the king maker in 2017, unless he crowns himself of course!


Yawn!
Actually I don't find your posts helpful, you fail to understand how NZ politics works....

tga_trader
21-07-2015, 05:41 AM
ponytail
You keep banging on about that on every page but I'm fairly certain you're the only person in the whole world still talking about it.

elZorro
21-07-2015, 06:34 AM
You keep banging on about that on every page but I'm fairly certain you're the only person in the whole world still talking about it.

Colin James mentioned pony-tail-gate almost in passing in his latest comment about the National conference coming up.

http://www.colinjames.co.nz/party-time-for-national-but-not-all-is-tip-top/

Personally, I can't wait for 2017, to see what gets attached to JK's hoardings around the country. You can understand how damaging that could be for National's brand.

One thing about Mr James' article, I wouldn't call the dairy bubble being flat. It could well be described as popped.

There is certainly disquiet in the regions, this is where the change in sentiment is coming from.

John Key no longer talking low percentages of foreign buyers in Auckland, Labour's efforts are forcing some action.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=11484133&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+21+ July+2015

C-T's advice again forces National to tell a giant fib.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=11484127&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+21+ July+2015

BlackPeter
21-07-2015, 07:41 AM
C-T's advice again forces National to tell a giant fib.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=11484127&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+21+ July+2015

Oh dear - EZ, Really - CT is the most important thing to talk about? What about all the racists creepies and crawlies the Labour party released?

I guess anybody supporting Labour had anyway a difficult battle ahead of themselves, but now it is clear for everybody that Labour can't even claim moral high ground. Pity that, NZ deserves a better opposition like that.

BTW - anybody else heard Andrew Little this morning on national Radio?

(http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201763179/labour-leader-andrew-little-on-party's-languishing-poll-results)

Incredible weak performance of a wannabe PM filled with lots of ah's and ahmm's - but nothing to say. He had neither a response related to Labours recent racist action - nor any suitable explanation towards condoning smoking in public. Quite disappointing - and this man wants to be the next PM? Stuff for Tui billboards - couldn't be better if somebody would have made it up ...

Daytr
21-07-2015, 07:48 AM
I'm sure many right wingers would like that to be the case & in their circles it probably is, as they wish the international embarrassment of our PM would just go away & be forgotten. Not going to happen.


You keep banging on about that on every page but I'm fairly certain you're the only person in the whole world still talking about it.

winner69
21-07-2015, 07:55 AM
Wonder if those sweet home movies coming out of Hawaii have any tax payer funding ....question being asked whose doing the filming?

Sweet young couple though, just having fun and its good Dad keeping on eye on them.

iceman
21-07-2015, 08:00 AM
Labour's racist policy backfiring in a big way http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11483909

Sgt Pepper
21-07-2015, 08:26 AM
You keep banging on about that on every page but I'm fairly certain you're the only person in the whole world still talking about it.

I still find John keys ponytail obsession of concern, as do many others

Daytr
21-07-2015, 09:28 AM
I would suggest you have discussed Labour's release of some data on the Auckland housing market to ad infinitum.
Are you an advocate of if you say something enough times then it must be true?
11 posts I believe by yours truly, sighting what you see Labour's racist or xenophobic tactics.
I think you have a shot competing with Whale Oil for stretching anything the Left do to some extremism.

Apparently foreign ownership is only a problem if its near 30-40% of property purchases in Auckland, well that's John Key's attempt to perhaps / maybe, oh I really don't want to do anything about it approach.
I would suggest if its anything like 10% in an already heated market its having a significant influence.
Key makes a somewhat valid point in regards Australia's rules that they haven't worked.
They have worked to a degree, although they would have worked better if they had been enforced and also one of the major factors driving property prices in Sydney & Melbourne has been population increase. In the time I was in Aust. it grew from 18M to 22M.
So, as I have expressed before both population growth via immigration and foreign property ownership needs to be addressed to reign in the property prices.

In a relatively short time, NZ has become quite an expensive place to live, particularly Auckland. But its just not about property.
Electricity prices have surged, rates & rents (obviously property related) have also surged.
NZ has gone from being a cheap producer of dairy to one of the more expensive due to intensification.
There is some very flawed economic drivers in NZ inflating the cost of living & this is at a time when the world has been suffering from deflation & the likes of cheaper oil. This pattern will only be exaggerated by further corporatization of government services where dividends are a driver of delivering social policy. America ... TPPA here we come.



Oh dear - EZ, Really - CT is the most important thing to talk about? What about all the racists creepies and crawlies the Labour party released?

I guess anybody supporting Labour had anyway a difficult battle ahead of themselves, but now it is clear for everybody that Labour can't even claim moral high ground. Pity that, NZ deserves a better opposition like that.

BTW - anybody else heard Andrew Little this morning on national Radio?

(http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201763179/labour-leader-andrew-little-on-party's-languishing-poll-results)

Incredible weak performance of a wannabe PM filled with lots of ah's and ahmm's - but nothing to say. He had neither a response related to Labours recent racist action - nor any suitable explanation towards condoning smoking in public. Quite disappointing - and this man wants to be the next PM? Stuff for Tui billboards - couldn't be better if somebody would have made it up ...

Daytr
21-07-2015, 09:34 AM
Iceman, are you confusing policy with data? Which again isn't racist unless you choose to see it that way. Its data.
But I agree & as I have said on many occasions it could have been done a lot better & more sensitively.
Their policy as is NZFs is to change foreign ownership on property.
There is nothing racist or xenophobic about that, its just good management & policy.


Labour's racist policy backfiring in a big way http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11483909

Daytr
21-07-2015, 11:45 AM
Net migration hits record, meanwhile National asleep at the wheel.
Maybe they will start gathering some statistics.
Oh we already have those, but lets gather them anyway & maybe at some time we may consider doing something about it, or not.
Sound familiar?

I wonder if this article is deemed racist? It highlights, Chinese, Indian, the UK & Australia.
Of course its not, its just data.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11484445

iceman
21-07-2015, 11:50 AM
Iceman, are you confusing policy with data? Which again isn't racist unless you choose to see it that way. Its data.
But I agree & as I have said on many occasions it could have been done a lot better & more sensitively.
Their policy as is NZFs is to change foreign ownership on property.
There is nothing racist or xenophobic about that, its just good management & policy.

Yes I admit "policy" was a bad choice of words. "Data" even worse. "Racist attack" would be more appropriate

Daytr
21-07-2015, 12:05 PM
Wasn't it data they used? And it wasn't an attack, nor was it racist.
There are lots of people with Maori sounding names in Northland.
Is that racist or an attack? Of course not its a fact based on data. And its data I like as I love living in an area with a large Maori population.
If this is the best that right wingers can come up with then watch out 2017 election.
The only thing being attacked is a poorly utilised set of data by Labour which is not even policy.
Is there anything racist about Labour's or NZFs policy on foreign ownership of property?
Nope, certainly not & if there was I would be at the front of the queue of outrage.
Rather than this ridiculous attempt at outrage on something that isn't what you say it is no matter how many times it is repeated.
I feel like I am watching Fox news sometimes on this thread.
I'm currently watching "The Newsroom" its pretty damned cheesy but once you wade through Swiss, its amasing how many times Fox news is caught out repeating something over & over even though its a complete fallacy.

IAK
21-07-2015, 12:17 PM
Net migration hits record, meanwhile National asleep at the wheel.
Maybe they will start gathering some statistics.
Oh we already have those, but lets gather them anyway & maybe at some time we may consider doing something about it, or not.
Sound familiar?

I wonder if this article is deemed racist? It highlights, Chinese, Indian, the UK & Australia.
Of course its not, its just data.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11484445

More pressure on Auckland housing and infrastructure - crazy.