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fungus pudding
05-11-2016, 09:56 AM
That was no doubt the conclusion John Key came to with Bill English, promised to support him then voted for Don Brash.

Why not have a go at changing the subject!

elZorro
05-11-2016, 11:27 AM
Possibly. Morgan is a socialist through and through, a modem day Robin Hood, so if he manages to get a following at all - which I doubt - it will come from Labour/Greens.

Yeah, sure. National will just sail through with about 50% of the party vote in 2017. In your dreams, FP.

http://www.top.org.nz/about_top

GTM 3442
05-11-2016, 03:22 PM
I'm not so sure about that craic.

I think that there is a massive groundswell of dissatisfaction with the current social, economic, and cultural state of affairs in New Zealand. Add to that the traditional "three-in-a-row, time-to-go" nine year cycle of New Zealand politics, and I think you have the makings of a very disruptive election in 2017.

I think that Labour and the Greens have been unable to tap that groundswell and potential for disruption to build sufficient support to challenge National in any meaningful way. Which has, of course, led to them being seen as incompetent and ineffectual.

So a "sensible, evidence-based policy" grouping has massive potential to suck votes from both sides of the (outdated) political spectrum.

GTM 3442
05-11-2016, 03:24 PM
Mornin' fungus. . .

I think you're looking in the wrong direction. I think it's far more likely that he would suck more votes from National than from "the left". I think there are quite a few voters who would jump at the chance to stop swallowing the dead rats that seem part and parcel of voting National because they see no alternative.

It will be interesting to see how this all looks in a year or so's time.

fungus pudding
05-11-2016, 03:46 PM
Yeah, sure. National will just sail through with about 50% of the party vote in 2017. In your dreams, FP.

http://www.top.org.nz/about_top

I'm glad you think so. I don't. They'll need Act and Allah forbid, they might even need Winston.

GTM 3442
05-11-2016, 03:57 PM
You might be right if there was a charismatic promoter involved. Garreth Morgan just ain't charismatic.

ACT seemed to do OK for quite aa while with no visible signs of charisma. Principles and policy should not be under-rated as a path to electoral success.

And I will note, just in passing, that ACT's decline seemed quite well correlated to the amount of "charisma" on display.

fungus pudding
05-11-2016, 04:27 PM
ACT seemed to do OK for quite aa while with no visible signs of charisma. Principles and policy should not be under-rated as a path to electoral success.

And I will note, just in passing, that ACT's decline seemed quite well correlated to the amount of "charisma" on display.

That is my point. Act's original policies were brilliant and they had well known figures at the helm, from Labour and National backgrounds but as the original crew faded away out went the policies and the party has never recovered. Principal and policy is a hard sell without the right skipper. Morgan ain't the man to do it.

GTM 3442
05-11-2016, 08:21 PM
That is my point. Act's original policies were brilliant and they had well known figures at the helm, from Labour and National backgrounds but as the original crew faded away out went the policies and the party has never recovered. Principal and policy is a hard sell without the right skipper. Morgan ain't the man to do it.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

ACT certainly had policy and principle to start with, but they were served up by a relatively non-charismatic crew. I mean Stephen Franks, charismatic? Roger Douglas?

The policies and principles attracted the voters, not the personalities.

Once ACT acquired charismatic leaders, (Messrs Hide and Brash) the party dwindled into irrelevance.

My point is that ACT was successful (possibly the most successful minor party that New Zealand has ever seen) without the need for "charismatic" leadership.

I suspect that ToP may be able to do the same thing - succeed on policy and principle, without the need for a "charismatic" leader.

We'll see in four years. . .

fungus pudding
05-11-2016, 10:13 PM
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

ACT certainly had policy and principle to start with, but they were served up by a relatively non-charismatic crew. I mean Stephen Franks, charismatic? Roger Douglas?

The policies and principles attracted the voters, not the personalities.

Once ACT acquired charismatic leaders, (Messrs Hide and Brash) the party dwindled into irrelevance.

My point is that ACT was successful (possibly the most successful minor party that New Zealand has ever seen) without the need for "charismatic" leadership.

I suspect that ToP may be able to do the same thing - succeed on policy and principle, without the need for a "charismatic" leader.

We'll see in four years. . .

Maybe not charismatic but Roger Douglas and Derek Quigley were highly respected and experienced. Morgan's policies, if his writings to date are anything to go by, will be viewed as odd - as is poor old Gareth.

GTM 3442
06-11-2016, 12:44 AM
Maybe not charismatic but Roger Douglas and Derek Quigley were highly respected and experienced. Morgan's policies, if his writings to date are anything to go by, will be viewed as odd - as is poor old Gareth.

I think that Mister Morgans ideas, properly presented, might have quite a wide appeal. We'll see in the 2020 election. . .

craic
06-11-2016, 07:15 AM
So you've looked in the mirror and finally and honestly decided that your politics are firmly left of centre. Now the good Lord decides to reward you with a choice. You can either have a Labour Government in NZ at the next election AND Donald Trump as president of the USA OR a National Government in NZ after the next election and Hillary Clinton in the White House - there are no other combinations available - Which would you choose?

elZorro
06-11-2016, 10:07 AM
So you've looked in the mirror and finally and honestly decided that your politics are firmly left of centre. Now the good Lord decides to reward you with a choice. You can either have a Labour Government in NZ at the next election AND Donald Trump as president of the USA OR a National Government in NZ after the next election and Hillary Clinton in the White House - there are no other combinations available - Which would you choose?

Except it's not that simple, Craic. Labour/Green/NZFirst/TOP could all be in the mix. Outsiders can have the occasional win too, just as Ireland beat the All Blacks just now.

I'd much prefer a leftie coalition here, and Hillary in the White House. Would that be so bad?

craic
06-11-2016, 10:40 AM
God didn't give you that choice. Read the question. That's why Labour screws up so often.
Except it's not that simple, Craic. Labour/Green/NZFirst/TOP could all be in the mix. Outsiders can have the occasional win too, just as Ireland beat the All Blacks just now.

I'd much prefer a leftie coalition here, and Hillary in the White House. Would that be so bad?

elZorro
06-11-2016, 10:46 AM
God didn't give you that choice. Read the question. That's why Labour screws up so often.

Like the rapper's song, huh?

Watch this horrible video of Michelle Boag, political commentator of the right, "rapping" in front of a whole lot of National people during a fundraiser in Auckland.

"The right have the money, the right have the power" is one of their unashamed lines.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/video.cfm?c_id=1&gal_objectid=11742533&gallery_id=167428

Bring back the Greens and their ukuleles, I say. I bet they are normally in tune, and not spouting utter crap.

Thanks for that, Jackie Hui, (http://jackiehui.co.nz/2016/07/)letting us see the inside of National Party fundraisers. Truly scary.

westerly
06-11-2016, 03:08 PM
God didn't give you that choice. Read the question. That's why Labour screws up so often.

I thought post 10281 was one of you better ones craic :)

westerly

elZorro
06-11-2016, 03:19 PM
I thought post 10281 was one of you better ones craic :)

westerly

Acshully I'd like to hear what Craic thought of the video, he had a look but didn't say anything. National are being honest in this video, that's how they see it, unadulterated. In which case, they are all very deluded, or self-serving nutters.

Meanwhile Labour's leader is bringing out some new policy that I have a feeling will appeal to some of the leftie posters on here.


78,000 unemployed youth policy:

Rather than pay young people the dole, we’ll set them up for six months with a job working in the conservation estate for DOC, or with a local charity or non-profit.We’ll put young people to work serving the community, getting the work experience they need.
Now these won’t be flashy jobs, but they will be a first step on the ladder.
And every young person will be paired with a mentor, someone who can help them learn new skills and get them ready for the job market.
I’ve seen for myself how programmes like these can work.
I’ve seen courses where they gave young people who have been out of work for a while a chance.
And its hands on stuff, they make sure they get to work, they make sure they bring a lunch, and they work in horticulture, they work on the land.
And by the end of the course, they’ve learned how to stick to a routine, how to pick themselves up when things get rough, they’ve learned habits that will last a life time.
They’ve got experience, they’ve got a reference, they’re providing for themselves.
They’re ready for work.
That’s the change we can make in the lives of thousands of people.
This is about saying to our young people: we’re not giving up on you. We see the potential in you, and here’s opportunity to make the most of yourself.
Delegates, we’re going to change the lives of thousands of our young people.
We’re going to restore opportunity.
We’re going to restore hope to people.

fungus pudding
06-11-2016, 03:39 PM
Acshully I'd like to hear what Craic thought of the video, he had a look but didn't say anything. National are being honest in this video, that's how they see it, unadulterated. In which case, they are all very deluded, or self-serving nutters.

Meanwhile Labour's leader is bringing out some new policy that I have a feeling will appeal to some of the leftie posters on here.

Sorry eZ, but Labour's current leader will not bring anything to anybody. Labour's next step if they ever want to win is find a proper leader. Little ain't it!

craic
06-11-2016, 04:39 PM
My post 10281? Now that's a mystery. I would like to know what it is and where it is? I've been on 1290 since before the earthquake - or was it the flood?

winner69
06-11-2016, 04:52 PM
Once again you open the mouth before the brain. Greed, in this respect was clearly referring to a human condition. Daytr your mindless pursuit of of the baubles of your own imagination and your stoic belief in every bit of nonsense that comes into your mind leaves me no option but to ignore this forum from this point forward. You can now have the last word with the assurance that, whatever you write, I will not read it. I will be too busy leading a very successful life under a National government on my few acres of paradise, content with my contribution to society. You and whatever party has the misfortune to have your vote can go on into the mindless foggy future you enjoy.

Post 10281 which was one of craic's better ones

elZorro
06-11-2016, 05:05 PM
Post 10281 which was one of craic's better ones

Craic still hasn't told us what he thought of National's lyrics and attempt at rapping, he seems to have studiously avoided doing so. Maybe it wasn't that bad, there must have been some redeeming features, although any thinking person wouldn't have found any.

Today I spoke with one of Gareth Morgan's first 200 TOP party members, a good family friend who is politically aware. They won't have any trouble getting to 500 members.

westerly
06-11-2016, 05:36 PM
Sorry eZ, but Labour's current leader will not bring anything to anybody. Labour's next step if they ever want to win is find a proper leader. Little ain't it!

No need to apologise FP, we all know your views, no one apart from John Key and a bunch of cross party jumpers can match your charismatic requirements. Even Winston who has more charisma than most present day politicians can't meet your somewhat biased viewpoint. Good name for a show jumper though, which kinda fits JK –He’s a bit of a show pony.

westerly

GTM 3442
06-11-2016, 10:16 PM
So you've looked in the mirror and finally and honestly decided that your politics are firmly left of centre. Now the good Lord decides to reward you with a choice. You can either have a Labour Government in NZ at the next election AND Donald Trump as president of the USA OR a National Government in NZ after the next election and Hillary Clinton in the White House - there are no other combinations available - Which would you choose?

A loaded question deserves a loaded answer. . .

After Mister Trump has a stroke in January 2017, President Pence will get on just fine with New Zealand's Labour Prime Minister English*. And negotiate a mutually beneficial free trade agreement.

*You will recall that Mister English resigned from the National party in protest after the revelations concerning the Malaysian 1MDB scandal, successfully stood as an independent, and was co-opted as Finance Minister by Prime Minister Little.

After a leadership coup by the "other" wing of the Labour party, Mister English was appointed Prime Minister as a compromise, faction-free, candidate on the understanding that he would not stand at the next election.

craic
07-11-2016, 11:29 AM
The reason I did not reply to something you found amusing about a National party ad was because I did not see it and I don't look at political ads. All ads are propaganda at best.
Craic still hasn't told us what he thought of National's lyrics and attempt at rapping, he seems to have studiously avoided doing so. Maybe it wasn't that bad, there must have been some redeeming features, although any thinking person wouldn't have found any.

Today I spoke with one of Gareth Morgan's first 200 TOP party members, a good family friend who is politically aware. They won't have any trouble getting to 500 members.

craic
07-11-2016, 11:37 AM
Now that Gareth Morgan's party has hit the boards, Labour and the Greens have decided, with Morgan, to form a new party for the next election. It will be called Three Bling Mice. to distinguish it from the other nursery tales that are the left wing.

GTM 3442
07-11-2016, 03:16 PM
Now that Gareth Morgan's party has hit the boards, Labour and the Greens have decided, with Morgan, to form a new party for the next election. It will be called Three Bling Mice. to distinguish it from the other nursery tales that are the left wing.

It's been interesting to read through the commentary on Sharetrader on the arrival of ToP.

There seem to be quite different, but consistent, reactions from various parts of the (obsolete) political spectrum.

I think it's funny, the way that the National party evolved from various other parties as a coalition to "keep Labour out", and now "the left" is (slowly) evolving into a coalition to "keep National out".

elZorro
08-11-2016, 06:16 AM
It's been interesting to read through the commentary on Sharetrader on the arrival of ToP.

There seem to be quite different, but consistent, reactions from various parts of the (obsolete) political spectrum.

I think it's funny, the way that the National party evolved from various other parties as a coalition to "keep Labour out", and now "the left" is (slowly) evolving into a coalition to "keep National out".

That might be what's happening, there are a fair few of us who vote Labour partly as a more direct way of booting National out of power. And why not, when they do stuff with taxpayer money that is not in our best interests, just their own.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11743370

John Key backs out of trade trip.
(http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/31282/dead-airmen's-bodies-retrieved-from-crash-site)

fungus pudding
08-11-2016, 06:22 AM
That might be what's happening, there are a fair few of us who vote Labour partly as a more direct way of booting National out of power. And why not, when they do stuff with taxpayer money that is not in our best interests, just their own.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11743370

John Key backs out of trade trip.
(http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/31282/dead-airmen's-bodies-retrieved-from-crash-site)

Are you telling us you're a Labour supporter eZ?

elZorro
08-11-2016, 07:11 AM
Are you telling us you're a Labour supporter eZ?

Arrgh, I've been outed!

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/60940004/labour-targets-ict-as-second-largest-economic-contributor-by-2025.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+8+N ovember+2016

Daytr
08-11-2016, 08:32 AM
I keep hearing the manufactured term by the Nats "Rock Star economy". The only thing that this economy has in common with rock stars is excesses.
Lets face it without record immigration and the CHC re-build we would have negative growth. Hardly a sustainable economic plan.
The stresses that record immigration is putting on infrastructure and housing is unacceptable and has created not only a housing bubble in Auckland that will eventually crash but a wealth gap of the haves & have nots not seen in this country since the Great Depression and it took a Labour government to bring this country together back then. I am not a fan of Labour especially under Little, but something has to change.

The denial by the Nats that Morgan's party wont hurt them is perhaps a telling sign. Morgan is as right wing as they come with market forces being his solution to most things. However he also has a green tinge. Those right wingers that are fed up with National's lack of effort on protecting the environment or tackling climate change will be having a long look at what policies Morgan's party produces.

fungus pudding
08-11-2016, 08:58 AM
I keep hearing the manufactured term by the Nats "Rock Star economy".

The term was conjured up by an overseas economist, and scoffed at by Bill English.

Daytr
08-11-2016, 10:11 AM
Hardly conjured, its not a new expression and at least Bill English gets something right.
Pity the rest of his cohorts didn't see it that way with Bennett with the crazed smile on her face and the ex woodwork teacher that has been inept at leading the CHC rebuild not being able to contain themselves. It will be that 2nd rate lawyer Simon Bridges turn next.

Major von Tempsky
08-11-2016, 10:22 AM
Interesting that despite all the disinformationfrom DayTr and EZ etc the NZ unemployment rate has gone below 5%, lowest for a long long time, and an International Monitoring group found that NZ is the most prosperous country in the world!

As for Morgan, he's a woofter and his party will go nowhere and rapidly disappear. After all about half the NZ population own cats and no cat owner would ever vote for Morgan!

GTM 3442
08-11-2016, 03:24 PM
That might be what's happening, there are a fair few of us who vote Labour partly as a more direct way of booting National out of power. And why not, when they do stuff with taxpayer money that is not in our best interests, just their own.

Do you think there aren't a fair few who vote National as a moredirect way of keeping Labour et al out of power?

fungus pudding
08-11-2016, 03:30 PM
Do you think there aren't a fair few who vote National as a moredirect way of keeping Labour et al out of power?

I can only speak for myself but I always vote in the most effective way possible to keep the party I least want out. I'm sure I'm not alone.

GTM 3442
08-11-2016, 10:22 PM
I can only speak for myself but I always vote in the most effective way possible to keep the party I least want out. I'm sure I'm not alone.

I'm sure you're not.

After all, who ever heard anyone say "Vote the b*st*rds in.

craic
09-11-2016, 07:55 AM
The great advantage now is that if your aim is to keep Labour out, all you have to do is sit back and Labour will do all the work for you (like resurrectiong a work for the dole scheme that they themselves threw out) or promising things that they can't afford now but will in so many years. Or their favourite, looking frantically for a new leader while insisting that the incumbent is the greatest.

winner69
10-11-2016, 07:05 AM
Hey EZ - there's hope yet if Labour are the the 'real deal' who can attract the masses

From Miller on Trump


@GeoffMillerNZ: Is this the end of modern politics? The end of data-driven, spin doctored, focus grouped, triangulated, ideology-light politics? #TrumpNZ

winner69
11-11-2016, 09:12 AM
Hey EZ - we often talk about the Labour 'narrative' - i still don't get it, what is it that will make me consider them a serious contender

They should learn from Trump. Even with all the weird stories he told, all his speeches etc talked about making America great again and used the word great over and over again. Pretty simple message - the populous got it.

Even his victory speech had about 25 greats in it

What's Labour message?

Major von Tempsky
11-11-2016, 12:56 PM
EZ is feeling abashed to the point of invisibilty by this :-)

November 04 2016 Finding No. 7039 Topic: Federal Poll Public Opinion Country: New Zealand

During October support for National rose by 6.5% to 48% now clearly ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 38% (down 7.5%) after Prime Minister John Key travelled extensively overseas – including an address to a UN conference in late September. If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected.

However, support for the National partners was down slightly with the Maori Party down 0.5% to 1.5% while Act NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support was at 26.5% (down 7%), Greens 11.5% (down 0.5%) and NZ First 10% (up 1.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet Party was 0.5% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ was 0% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1.5% (up 0.5%).

In line with the jump in support for National the NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 126.5pts (up 9.5pts) in October with 55.5% (up 3.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 29% (down 6%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’).

fish
16-11-2016, 11:47 AM
Don't believe in Polls
Gut feeling(I live in his constituency) tells me Winston is going to hold his seat and his nz first might take advantage of the trump effect

craic
16-11-2016, 02:01 PM
Interesting idea (the Trump effect). A wall around Whangarei?. All islanders who are not citizens deported? All abortions banned? No more Muslims? I think Winnie will try but he has a hard row to hoe here in that the country is doing very well by most standards and any radical ideas will be hard to find.

elZorro
17-11-2016, 06:59 AM
Interesting idea (the Trump effect). A wall around Whangarei?. All islanders who are not citizens deported? All abortions banned? No more Muslims? I think Winnie will try but he has a hard row to hoe here in that the country is doing very well by most standards and any radical ideas will be hard to find.

Patrick Smellie's opinion article says that a tectonic change is occurring. It's probably not a bad thing, because if climate change really does kick in, every continent will be on their own, trade greatly reduced.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/86521512/pattrick-smellie-trump-and-brexit-point-to-tectonic-change-in-western-politics?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+17 +November+2016

GTM 3442
17-11-2016, 07:41 PM
". . . if climate change really does kick in, every continent will be on their own, trade greatly reduced."

I'm curious. How do you come to that conclusion?

elZorro
18-11-2016, 06:22 AM
". . . if climate change really does kick in, every continent will be on their own, trade greatly reduced."

I'm curious. How do you come to that conclusion?

The scientists have been saying for a while that climate change scenarios are very scary, many of these same scientists have quietly purchased boltholes in cooler parts of the world, have already moved, or are preparing to move. The changes are on such a scale that global trade would be severely affected. Think about it - at the moment world trade relies on fossil fuel being pumped out of the ground, being refined, shipped round the world in supertankers, and everything hinges on that. Supermarkets, cheap goods from China, etc. Disrupt any part of that co-operative chain and the world will be a different place.

craic
18-11-2016, 08:10 AM
Self sufficiency is not a bad thing. You have a roof over your head. In my home village various individuals had their speciality and trading a few eggs for some cabbage or potatoes or whatever saw ever. We had no vehicles, supermarkets, cell phones or even electricity for years. Food was fairly basic and treats relied cooking skills. Sugar was severely rationed during the war. I don't remember being any less happy there than here and now. One huge difference was temperature. Then you froze in winter, huddled around fires and suffered the summer heat. Here everything is air conditioned and anyone exposed to less than 15 degrees Celsius is screaming hypothermia. I'm sure that a large part of the obesity problem relates to the fact that we are not allowed to use ingested energy to regulate body temperature. We had a series of exercises to "get warm" - anyone ever heard of them recently?

fungus pudding
18-11-2016, 08:20 AM
The scientists have been saying for a while that climate change scenarios are very scary, many of these same scientists have quietly purchased boltholes in cooler parts of the world, have already moved, or are preparing to move.

Who are 'the scientists' who use such technical terms as scary? How many have bought boltholes around the world? How do you know?

elZorro
18-11-2016, 07:51 PM
Who are 'the scientists' who use such technical terms as scary? How many have bought boltholes around the world? How do you know?

FP, if you have nothing better to do, and most people should be in that category, watch this short video, and by about 5 mins in you'll start to get the idea. Things could change very quickly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kx1Jxk6kjbQ

fungus pudding
18-11-2016, 08:16 PM
FP, if you have nothing better to do, and I don't think there are many on the planet who should be in that category, watch this short video, and by about 5 mins in you'll start to get the idea. Things could change very quickly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kx1Jxk6kjbQ

Three simple questions, and you didn't answer even one.

elZorro
19-11-2016, 05:56 AM
Three simple questions, and you didn't answer even one.

I would have hoped that after watching the video, you'd see that scientist looked scared for the whole planet, and that a big change could happen anytime now. A bit of googling and you'll start to see how some of them are going offline, moving, setting up boltholes.

Vaygor1
19-11-2016, 07:25 AM
I would have hoped that after watching the video, you'd see that scientist looked scared for the whole planet, and that a big change could happen anytime now. A bit of googling and you'll start to see how some of them are going offline, moving, setting up boltholes.

... Yeah, like Al Gore's beach-front bolthole he bought in 2010.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2010/05/how-green-is-al-gores-9-million-montecito-ocean-front-villa/1#.WC9Uz3dg3eQ
http://nation.foxnews.com/al-gore/2010/04/29/gore-buys-9m-villa-california-coast
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/apr/28/home/la-hm-hotprop-gore-20100428

fungus pudding
19-11-2016, 07:59 AM
I would have hoped that after watching the video, you'd see that scientist looked scared for the whole planet, and that a big change could happen anytime now. A bit of googling and you'll start to see how some of them are going offline, moving, setting up boltholes.

Three simple questions, and still you haven't answered one.

elZorro
19-11-2016, 09:21 AM
Three simple questions, and still you haven't answered one.

I found one of many articles for you, FP.

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a36228/ballad-of-the-sad-climatologists-0815/

Where is the relevance to the political thread? We should make sure that all our politicians have done their research on climate change scenarios. We'll need leadership, not denial.

fungus pudding
19-11-2016, 09:41 AM
I found one of many articles for you, FP.

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a36228/ballad-of-the-sad-climatologists-0815/

Where is the relevance to the political thread? We should make sure that all our politicians have done their research on climate change scenarios. We'll need leadership, not denial.

I can find plenty of articles too. But you still haven't answered any of my 3 questions.

elZorro
19-11-2016, 10:14 AM
I can find plenty of articles too. But you still haven't answered any of my 3 questions.

If you're suggesting I use hyperbole, that might be partly right. At least I do some research first, before pronouncing on something. I can't reply to your open-ended questions, but the thrust of my argument is correct. Where are your articles? Did you bother to read what I posted first?

fungus pudding
19-11-2016, 10:24 AM
If you're suggesting I use hyperbole, that might be partly right. At least I do some research first, before pronouncing on something. I can't reply to your open-ended questions, but the thrust of my argument is correct. Where are your articles? Did you bother to read what I posted first?

No I didn't.

elZorro
19-11-2016, 10:50 AM
No I didn't. No I didn't - what? If you didn't read the articles, then you'll stay blissfully ignorant. Just don't try and pull me up on my points, then.

Sgt Pepper
19-11-2016, 11:04 AM
No I didn't - what? If you didn't read the articles, then you'll stay blissfully ignorant. Just don't try and pull me up on my points, then.

EZ
Dont be mean, Fungus was so excited about Donald Trumps win that he cant read about anything else. As for John Key he is trying on the Trump red caps already.

elZorro
19-11-2016, 11:37 AM
EZ
Dont be mean, Fungus was so excited about Donald Trumps win that he cant read about anything else. As for John Key he is trying on the Trump red caps already.

You're probably quite right there, Sgt Pepper. A Hamilton property guru that I know has apparently been consumed with everything Trump, especially since he got elected. But it's all part of the big picture that not too many are aware of - what are the changes ahead of us all when hundreds of millions of people can't stay where they are now, but most don't have any collateral to move anyway? At the moment the rentiers are doing well - those who can afford to move are doing so, mostly for work at the moment, and some of them are coming here.

We'll need flexible, thinking politicians, who are not scared to do some research, and who trust climate scientists and planners of all types.

fungus pudding
19-11-2016, 01:22 PM
You're probably quite right there, Sgt Pepper. A Hamilton property guru that I know has apparently been consumed with everything Trump, especially since he got elected.


You could always look through my numerous posts in the forum, US Presidential race, and see how silly your presumption is.

GTM 3442
20-11-2016, 02:42 AM
The scientists have been saying for a while that climate change scenarios are very scary, many of these same scientists have quietly purchased boltholes in cooler parts of the world, have already moved, or are preparing to move. The changes are on such a scale that global trade would be severely affected. Think about it - at the moment world trade relies on fossil fuel being pumped out of the ground, being refined, shipped round the world in supertankers, and everything hinges on that. Supermarkets, cheap goods from China, etc. Disrupt any part of that co-operative chain and the world will be a different place.

Oh dear, you really are projecting the past straight into the future with not a lot of consideration for what’s happening in the present, El Zorro.

This will go on for a little. . .

First up, let’s look at your supertankers. Now, given that there are only two continents in the world, the only need for supertankers is to move oil to the American continent from the EuroAfricanAsian continent, or vice versa. Oh, and to New Zealand, of course. Better dredge Northport in Whangarei, so it can cope, hadn’t we!

Now, the American continent is self-sufficient in oil (Canada/Venezuela/USA). As is the EuroAfricanAsia continent (Russia/Nigeria/Arabia). So there’s no need for anything other than pipelines and tank-cars on a rail network.

Did someone say “rail”? Ah yes. 14 days by train from China to Germany, 20 days less than by sea. Given that Euro/Africa/Asia are contiguous, there’s a lot of scope for those “One Belt/One Road” initiatives to expand.

Second up, why oil anway?

At the moment, a lot of oil is burnt as transport fuel. Electric vehicles take that away. So we don’t need so many supertankers anyway, because there’s far less demand for the oil they transport.

And after all, solar doesn’t need fuel, nor does hydro, and both run 24/7, so there’s no shortage of transport fuel. Just flip the switch and recharge.

Third up, and last but not least, cheap goods from China. Yep, harder to come by in the Americas (and New Zealand, of course), but not in the Euro/African/Asian continent, with it’s rail network (electrified, of course).

So yes, we will see massive disruption, but it won’t come as you seem to anticipate. There won’t necessarily be less trade, in fact there will probably be more trade. But the patterns and the mechanisms will be quite different from what we see today. Intra-continental, rather than inter-continental.

Oh, a PS - as for your scientists cowering in their bolt-holes, well I rather think that those bolt-holes won’t be in some inaccessible place offshore from one of the two continents.

winner69
20-11-2016, 07:42 AM
I'm all for a revolution - said it many times

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11749955

Won't happen 2017 but hopefully in 2020, if not before

EZ - Labour have lost the opportunity to be part of this. Election 2017 might be their last as a 'major' party (for want of a better word)

elZorro
20-11-2016, 12:51 PM
Oh dear, you really are projecting the past straight into the future with not a lot of consideration for what’s happening in the present, El Zorro.

This will go on for a little. . .

First up, let’s look at your supertankers. Now, given that there are only two continents in the world, the only need for supertankers is to move oil to the American continent from the EuroAfricanAsian continent, or vice versa. Oh, and to New Zealand, of course. Better dredge Northport in Whangarei, so it can cope, hadn’t we!

Now, the American continent is self-sufficient in oil (Canada/Venezuela/USA). As is the EuroAfricanAsia continent (Russia/Nigeria/Arabia). So there’s no need for anything other than pipelines and tank-cars on a rail network.

Did someone say “rail”? Ah yes. 14 days by train from China to Germany, 20 days less than by sea. Given that Euro/Africa/Asia are contiguous, there’s a lot of scope for those “One Belt/One Road” initiatives to expand.

Second up, why oil anway?

At the moment, a lot of oil is burnt as transport fuel. Electric vehicles take that away. So we don’t need so many supertankers anyway, because there’s far less demand for the oil they transport.

And after all, solar doesn’t need fuel, nor does hydro, and both run 24/7, so there’s no shortage of transport fuel. Just flip the switch and recharge.

Third up, and last but not least, cheap goods from China. Yep, harder to come by in the Americas (and New Zealand, of course), but not in the Euro/African/Asian continent, with it’s rail network (electrified, of course).

So yes, we will see massive disruption, but it won’t come as you seem to anticipate. There won’t necessarily be less trade, in fact there will probably be more trade. But the patterns and the mechanisms will be quite different from what we see today. Intra-continental, rather than inter-continental.

Oh, a PS - as for your scientists cowering in their bolt-holes, well I rather think that those bolt-holes won’t be in some inaccessible place offshore from one of the two continents.

Points noted, GTM. But I'm not sure how electric aircraft would work, we'd still need a lot of transport fuel for those, and while we could grow our own fuel, it needs an ongoing amount of fertilisers, which are getting to be in short supply. Fusion or fission would seem to be the most likely future energy source on a large scale, and if that energy came cheap enough, we could fix a lot of our other issues.

Here in NZ, if we wanted to replace all motor vehicles with electric drive ones, we'd need to double the capacity in our electrical network.

elZorro
20-11-2016, 01:01 PM
I'm all for a revolution - said it many times

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11749955

Won't happen 2017 but hopefully in 2020, if not before

EZ - Labour have lost the opportunity to be part of this. Election 2017 might be their last as a 'major' party (for want of a better word)

I think Bryce is being a bit impractical with that article. Voters don't go too far out of their way to learn about NZ politics. If you have to reach them on TV, it costs money. Although I'd be surprised if Labour really gets $35mill a year from the taxpayer to spend within the party, they scrabble for every cent, so if must be part of the parliamentary budget.

I don't think you should be so brave as to write Labour off this far out from the 2017 election, for one it's Labour and the Greens, two we don't know what Winston is doing, three - no tax cuts next time unless National runs up a huge amount of borrowing again, four, what about the TOP party? You could just be more honest and state that you'd prefer more of the same, or you don't like the sound of some of Labour's policies because it might have a small negative effect on your personal equity, as part of a move towards less inequality. :)

GTM 3442
20-11-2016, 01:47 PM
Points noted, GTM. But I'm not sure how electric aircraft would work, we'd still need a lot of transport fuel for those, and while we could grow our own fuel, it needs an ongoing amount of fertilisers, which are getting to be in short supply. Fusion or fission would seem to be the most likely future energy source on a large scale, and if that energy came cheap enough, we could fix a lot of our other issues.

Here in NZ, if we wanted to replace all motor vehicles with electric drive ones, we'd need to double the capacity in our electrical network.

Ah, you conservatives! Everything's a problem to be viewed through the distorting lens of the past.

With good rail, why do you need electric aeroplanes? Won't airships do? Why nuclear, when 24/7 solar is so much more economical?

Fertilizer in short supply? Which fertilize - or just the current sources?

Is having to upgrade the national grid such a bad thing? Such a big job?

You Conservative Cassandras seem determined to make sure that we don't address the issues. You may be fond of sackcloth and ashes, but they don't suit my complexion.

macduffy
20-11-2016, 04:49 PM
With good rail, why do you need electric aeroplanes? Won't airships do? Why nuclear, when 24/7 solar is so much more economical?


I guess that I should plead guilty to conservatism but solar power - for air transport - will have to move well beyond being able to support its own weight and that of its pilot before it becomes a practical solution. Or am I "viewing the problem through the distorting lens of the past" ?

GTM 3442
20-11-2016, 06:34 PM
I guess that I should plead guilty to conservatism but solar power - for air transport - will have to move well beyond being able to support its own weight and that of its pilot before it becomes a practical solution. Or am I "viewing the problem through the distorting lens of the past" ?

Mornin' macduffy.

Nothing wrong with conservatism. If I may paraphrase Disraeli, conservatism means "conserving the good stuff". And I'm all in favour of conserving the good stuff.

So let's get out our distorting lens and have a look at the past. Cast your mind back to (say) 1880. Heavier-than-air travel and transport was impossible. The technology of the time was simply incapable of constructing an airframe capable of supporting the dominant power source of the time - the external combustion steam engine.

Orville and Wilbur wouldn't have gotten off the ground, with the Wright Flier loaded down with a couple of tons of coal. Cue the internal combustion engine. Cue the steam turbine. Once again, external combustion. Then "bingo", the internal combustion turbine, aka the jet engine.

Now let's snap forward to the present - as for electric-powered air travel, well you're probably right.

But if, as I suggest, most future trade is conducted within the two continents, then a decent electric rail system does away with a lot of the need for air travel. After all, how long does it take to get from Barcelona to Madrid by air, compared to by rail? And how often is that extra 40-45 minutes a critical (or even important) factor.

What I find odd is the willingness, indeed the determination, to chain ourselves to the past, and to let past limitations constrain our view of the possibilities inherent in the present.

The mindset that, when confronted by a carbon-free electric vehicle fleet, immediately responds "Oooooh! Can't do that, sorry, the transmission network won't cope!".

Proper conservatism is a good thing, it's the "radicals" with blinkers and handcuffs that you have to watch out for.

macduffy
20-11-2016, 08:10 PM
No argument there, GTM, but I thought you were making a case for solar-powered air transport. I'll go back and re-read post 11607.

(Not sure where all this fits into "If National wins...." ? )

Cheers

GTM 3442
20-11-2016, 09:16 PM
No argument there, GTM, but I thought you were making a case for solar-powered air transport. I'll go back and re-read post 11607.

(Not sure where all this fits into "If National wins...." ? )

Cheers

Afternoon mcduffy. . .

Well no, I'm not sure about how this fits with "if National wins. . . " either. but it's been an interesting detour, and much preferable to the usual "National slags Labour slags National, slags Labour and everybody slags United Future. . . . ad nauseam"

Cheers

elZorro
21-11-2016, 06:34 AM
Afternoon mcduffy. . .

Well no, I'm not sure about how this fits with "if National wins. . . " either. but it's been an interesting detour, and much preferable to the usual "National slags Labour slags National, slags Labour and everybody slags United Future. . . . ad nauseam"

Cheers

GTM, I'm all for using solar/wind, but when it costs $17,000 to set up enough gear to run a small workshop, I draw the line at the moment. Even though heat engines like car motors are about 20% efficient in using the energy in fuels as motive power, it's still a vast amount of energy to replace. So you can't just put up an electric transport fleet idea, without doing the rest of the numbers.

Has the Kaikoura earthquake helped National's chances in a perverse way? maybe.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/86560569/Stacey-Kirk-have-the-quakes-locked-in-a-fourth-term-National-Government

I found one of the comments to this article very interesting. Here's John Key personally "tackling" Mark Zuckerberg about Facebook paying more taxes here. He's sniffed the wind, perhaps it's time to be doing something.

OK John, open up your books and let's see how much tax you've been paying. Simple. After that, you can hound everyone else.

dobby41
21-11-2016, 07:20 AM
I found one of the comments to this article very interesting. Here's John Key personally "tackling" Mark Zuckerberg about Facebook paying more taxes here. He's sniffed the wind, perhaps it's time to be doing something.

OK John, open up your books and let's see how much tax you've been paying. Simple. After that, you can hound everyone else.

I'm quite happy for JK to tackle facebook head on. Too much beating about the bush here.
I didn't realise that there was doubt that JK paid his taxes?

elZorro
21-11-2016, 07:35 AM
I'm quite happy for JK to tackle facebook head on. Too much beating about the bush here.
I didn't realise that there was doubt that JK paid his taxes?

The Greens and Labour leaders have supplied their personal income statements, John Key refused to. He also seems to know a lot about tax havens. If you invest $50mill, surely you'd expect an income of let's say $5mill a year, that's going to be taxable in the normal scheme of things. We're all expected to pay our share, after all.

Major von Tempsky
21-11-2016, 09:03 AM
I'm sure John Key wouldn't give Facebook some heavy advice about PR and paying a reasonable amount of tax! Without checking his own position first.
Unlike with Trump I think you are chasing a rainbow.

GTM 3442
21-11-2016, 02:16 PM
I'm quite happy for JK to tackle facebook head on. Too much beating about the bush here.
I didn't realise that there was doubt that JK paid his taxes?

The cynics amongst us might think that it's about as sincere and credible as Tony Abbott's promise to "shirtfront" Vladimir Putin.

GTM 3442
21-11-2016, 02:38 PM
GTM, I'm all for using solar/wind, but when it costs $17,000 to set up enough gear to run a small workshop, I draw the line at the moment. Even though heat engines like car motors are about 20% efficient in using the energy in fuels as motive power, it's still a vast amount of energy to replace. So you can't just put up an electric transport fleet idea, without doing the rest of the numbers.

Oh Good Lord, El Zorro!

Here I am, peering into the future at a global, strategic level - almost a visionary you might say - painting the big picture, and you're complaining about a smudge in the top left hand corner of the frame!

Why, in a country so abundantly blessed with wind and hydro resources, anyone would consider solar power for anything other than passive water heating eludes me. Especially solar power at the individual workshop level for an industrial user.

At our global, strategic, (visionary?) level, the numbers don't actually matter - changes to energy generation are coming. They have to. The world can't keep powering itself by burning stuff - it's simply too expensive. And too dirty.

Stand back from the microscope, and try a squint through the macroscope.

elZorro
22-11-2016, 06:52 AM
Oh Good Lord, El Zorro!

Here I am, peering into the future at a global, strategic level - almost a visionary you might say - painting the big picture, and you're complaining about a smudge in the top left hand corner of the frame!

Why, in a country so abundantly blessed with wind and hydro resources, anyone would consider solar power for anything other than passive water heating eludes me. Especially solar power at the individual workshop level for an industrial user.

At our global, strategic, (visionary?) level, the numbers don't actually matter - changes to energy generation are coming. They have to. The world can't keep powering itself by burning stuff - it's simply too expensive. And too dirty.

Stand back from the microscope, and try a squint through the macroscope.

GTM, I'm on your side when it comes to energy use - yes, solar tubes or passive heating arrays are much more efficient than PV, but you only get hot water, and my workshop doesn't need much of that. We're on flat ground and wind is patchy. What would be more useful is if the electricity retailers were forced by legislation to pay more for any PV energy fed back into the grid, up to a sensible limit per household or business. The power companies would lose some profits, but NZ would quickly change into a more self-sufficient operation as far as electricity needs. And it would create a lot of work for installers.

But I do mention the energy used by vehicles whenever a change to an electric fleet is proposed. In places like California, they are short on hydro, even reticulated power (or were) so a wholesale change to electric vehicles just couldn't happen at the moment. There is an enormous amount of energy in a car's fuel tank, it's a one-off resource that humans are squandering on a heat engine at 20% efficiency, sometimes just for a trip to relieve boredom.

As an aside, I'm not sure what anyone else does, but when I pull up into a "service station", get out and start to fill up my car, only to find that the pump is on prepay and the lone operator can't be bothered pressing a button to fire up the pump after a friendly wave - I just hang up the pump and go somewhere else. If they don't trust me enough to sell me petrol on tick for two minutes, they don't deserve my custom. It's bad enough I have to do all the work. More of us should just drive off, they'd get the message.

GTM 3442
23-11-2016, 04:28 AM
But I do mention the energy used by vehicles whenever a change to an electric fleet is proposed. In places like California, they are short on hydro, even reticulated power (or were) so a wholesale change to electric vehicles just couldn't happen at the moment.

Oh dear! El Zorro, you really are a "glass half empty" type aren't you. The curse of conservatism, I suppose.

I will just note in passing that the lack of rails didn't do much to impede the onward march of progress in the form of the steam locomotive.

And that the inevitable march of progress in the form of electric personal transport will require an effort not unlike that required to gird the world in rails of steel.

The future's coming, ready or not. And keeping one's head in the sand leaves sensitive parts of one's anatomy dangerously exposed. . .

elZorro
23-11-2016, 02:36 PM
Oh dear! El Zorro, you really are a "glass half empty" type aren't you. The curse of conservatism, I suppose.

I will just note in passing that the lack of rails didn't do much to impede the onward march of progress in the form of the steam locomotive.

And that the inevitable march of progress in the form of electric personal transport will require an effort not unlike that required to gird the world in rails of steel.

The future's coming, ready or not. And keeping one's head in the sand leaves sensitive parts of one's anatomy dangerously exposed. . .

I'm not saying that it's a bad idea to convert most vehicles to electric, of course that's sensible. But only if you have enough carbon-neutral energy to produce the extra electricity that would be required. And in some cases it's very hard, or might involve 20 years of new infrastructure work. It took about that long to build all the hydro stations on the Waikato River. You could swap the Bluff aluminium smelter power use for electric powered car energy, that might be a clever solution. But it has to be on that scale.

dobby41
23-11-2016, 02:42 PM
I'm not saying that it's a bad idea to convert most vehicles to electric, of course that's sensible.

Except for all the carbon is making batteries etc.

GTM 3442
23-11-2016, 05:33 PM
Except for all the carbon is making batteries etc.

TThinkof the New Zealand Parliament. Now slap a carbon-scrubber on the top to catch all that CO2-rich hot air. Sell the recovered carbon to the battery makers. A lovely virtuous circle, dobby old thing, a lovely virtuous circle.

GTM 3442
23-11-2016, 05:55 PM
I'm not saying that it's a bad idea to convert most vehicles to electric, of course that's sensible. But only if you have enough carbon-neutral energy to produce the extra electricity that would be required. And in some cases it's very hard, or might involve 20 years of new infrastructure work. It took about that long to build all the hydro stations on the Waikato River. You could swap the Bluff aluminium smelter power use for electric powered car energy, that might be a clever solution. But it has to be on that scale.

Manapouri? Manapouri? It's not on that scale El Zorro, it's much bigger than that.

To replace the world's current dependence on dirty burning things with clean electricity is much bigger than what you suggest. Much bigger.

Your conservative option of saying "Ooooooh! its a big big job" and "Ooooooh! It will take a long time." while wringing your hands just isn't an option.

elZorro
23-11-2016, 10:29 PM
Manapouri? Manapouri? It's not on that scale El Zorro, it's much bigger than that.

To replace the world's current dependence on dirty burning things with clean electricity is much bigger than what you suggest. Much bigger.

Your conservative option of saying "Ooooooh! its a big big job" and "Ooooooh! It will take a long time." while wringing your hands just isn't an option.

I was only talking about our situation in NZ, to make the most of the hydro we already have. Maybe we shouldn't be making aluminium in a less efficient plant, when we could be running most of our vehicles on that energy, at say 80% efficiency. Worldwide, I think fission (and later fusion energy) will be what is needed to fill the gaps. Assuming economies continue to grow. What if they go backwards?

Warmest November day in NZ, since records began. Not a record I'm that happy about.

elZorro
25-11-2016, 07:01 AM
Key and co, trying to dig a sod for the symbolic start of the new undersea comms cable. Note the blue spades and ribbons. It's a National Party PR stint. Except they really do look like a bunch of muppets.

https://twitter.com/TheNBR/status/801274579603685377

dobby41
25-11-2016, 07:15 AM
Made my day that did!

fungus pudding
25-11-2016, 09:12 AM
Made my day that did!


Certainly shows in his short address why he is so popular.

westerly
25-11-2016, 06:10 PM
Key and co, trying to dig a sod for the symbolic start of the new undersea comms cable. Note the blue spades and ribbons. It's a National Party PR stint. Except they really do look like a bunch of muppets.

https://twitter.com/TheNBR/status/801274579603685377

Reminded me of Don Brash walking the plank to board a boat. All three certainly lacking in spade technique.
Possibly a dastardly plot by the left to show the rights lack of practical skills. :)

westerly

blackcap
25-11-2016, 06:21 PM
Certainly shows in his short address why he is so popular.

Exactly. The left or Labour have not learned anything. If they keep trying to attack Key its a certain disaster for them come 2017. Almost feel sorry for ElZorro and his attempts to make Little more personable. Chris Trotter summed Little up quite nicely...
https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.co.nz/2016/11/sixty-four-shades-of-grey.html

neopoleII
25-11-2016, 08:23 PM
mr little could always jump on a horse with no shirt on (like mr putin)
that should get some brownie points....... he seems fit.
jacinder could jump on a horse with no shirt on.....
that could win an election!!!
and her v pm ........
annette king with no shirt on.......... well.......
or winston........ maybe.... Marlborough man...grandad...
hone could do a real mean horse back photo shoot... musket and all....
greens co leaders.... on a double hump camel....... yup!
what about kim.com and hone together........ well.......... are there big horses in NZ?
too bad the conservative leader is out of the picture........ that would be a classic horsey photo.... c3po on a tamtam
would love to see a maori party horse back photo ..... i think??

think key might still pull it off with a blue spade.

dexter team still looks after key.

wonder what trumps horse would look like?

politics is fun

Gizzajob I can do that
25-11-2016, 08:45 PM
mr little could always jump on a horse with no shirt on (like mr putin)
that should get some brownie points....... he seems fit.
jacinder could jump on a horse with no shirt on.....
that could win an election!!!
and her v pm ........
annette king with no shirt on.......... well.......
or winston........ maybe.... Marlborough man...grandad...
hone could do a real mean horse back photo shoot... musket and all....
greens co leaders.... on a double hump camel....... yup!
what about kim.com and hone together........ well.......... are there big horses in NZ?
too bad the conservative leader is out of the picture........ that would be a classic horsey photo.... c3po on a tamtam
would love to see a maori party horse back photo ..... i think??

think key might still pull it off with a blue spade.

dexter team still looks after key.

wonder what trumps horse would look like?

politics is fun

Yep, good enough for Robbie, its good enough for little.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iy4mXZN1Zzk

elZorro
25-11-2016, 09:16 PM
Exactly. The left or Labour have not learned anything. If they keep trying to attack Key its a certain disaster for them come 2017. Almost feel sorry for ElZorro and his attempts to make Little more personable. Chris Trotter summed Little up quite nicely...
https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.co.nz/2016/11/sixty-four-shades-of-grey.html

Blackcap, aren't the hits just starting to add up? Just a bit?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11754366&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+25+N ovember+2016

He's a smart guy, Dr Ken Gledhill. Would I believe him, or bombastic Gerry Brownlee?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86767567/comment-was-brownlees-blast-an-overreaction-or-understandable

fungus pudding
26-11-2016, 08:02 AM
Blackcap, aren't the hits just starting to add up? Just a bit?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11754366&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+25+N ovember+2016

He's a smart guy, Dr Ken Gledhill. Would I believe him, or bombastic Gerry Brownlee?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86767567/comment-was-brownlees-blast-an-overreaction-or-understandable

It's a tough life indeed eZ. Just so many things to worry about, even if you have to go searching for them.

artemis
26-11-2016, 07:01 PM
mr little could always jump on a horse with no shirt on .....

I'll never be able to unsee that picture.

Gizzajob I can do that
26-11-2016, 07:07 PM
Just for craic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIckHmwZAeI

GTM 3442
26-11-2016, 10:11 PM
Key and co, trying to dig a sod for the symbolic start of the new undersea comms cable. Note the blue spades and ribbons. It's a National Party PR stint. Except they really do look like a bunch of muppets.

https://twitter.com/TheNBR/status/801274579603685377

Come on - any politician with a spade looks a muppet.

Sgt Pepper
27-11-2016, 09:35 AM
Come on - any politician with a spade looks a muppet.

It is very unfair comparing John Key trying to dig a hole to the muppets.... unfair to the muppets that is.

winner69
27-11-2016, 06:02 PM
Another 'bogus poll' out

Colmar Brunton - Nats 50% Labour 28% Greens 11%

Next election a non-event sadly

elZorro
28-11-2016, 07:07 AM
Another 'bogus poll' out

Colmar Brunton - Nats 50% Labour 28% Greens 11%

Next election a non-event sadly

W69, I've had a look through the latest poll, and watched John Key on TV taking the 50% party vote and writing down the effect of his lowered 'preferred PM' data. This poll straddled a big earthquake that many of us felt, so you'd expect some support for the current govt. Again, Colmar Brunton referred to new methods of communication that many use (i.e. cellphones) but then only polled people who had a landline.

Given all this, it's surprising the disengagement of the 1,000 eligible voters they eventually talked to. The party vote figures were for only about 800 of the 1,000 - the rest were unlikely to vote. But it looks like all 1,000 gave their opinion of sorts on the preferred PM. 34% of them suggested no-one, another 3% suggested someone not on the list at all, presumably the first person that popped into their head. Looking at John Key's preferred PM rating on a time scale, it peaked long ago and has a distinct downward trend, although it's levelling out.

The Labour-Green group have to mobilise this large tranche of non-voters, people who are hard to contact, but whom presumably watch TV. Imagine the money that will require. That's why being in power is a strong position, and National are taking plenty of Labour-looking initiatives like equal pay changes (around the fringes), to try and keep everyone on board.

But I think offering out small tax cuts at this stage, after they've plundered the Crown's book situation, and will need to do so again, is absurd.

fungus pudding
28-11-2016, 07:28 AM
W69, I've had a look through the latest poll, and watched John Key on TV taking the 50% party vote and writing down the effect of his lowered 'preferred PM' data. This poll straddled a big earthquake that many of us felt, so you'd expect some support for the current govt. Again, Colmar Brunton referred to new methods of communication that many use (i.e. cellphones) but then only polled people who had a landline.

Given all this, it's surprising the disengagement of the 1,000 eligible voters they eventually talked to. The party vote figures were for only about 800 of the 1,000 - the rest were unlikely to vote. But it looks like all 1,000 gave their opinion of sorts on the preferred PM. 34% of them suggested no-one, another 3% suggested someone not on the list at all, presumably the first person that popped into their head. Looking at John Key's preferred PM rating on a time scale, it peaked long ago and has a distinct downward trend, although it's levelling out.

The Labour-Green group have to mobilise this large tranche of non-voters, people who are hard to contact, but whom presumably watch TV. Imagine the money that will require. That's why being in power is a strong position, and National are taking plenty of Labour-looking initiatives like equal pay changes (around the fringes), to try and keep everyone on board.

But I think offering out small tax cuts at this stage, after they've plundered the Crown's book situation, and will need to do so again, is absurd.


Translation: I don't like this poll - so I don't believe it.

elZorro
28-11-2016, 07:56 AM
Translation: I don't like this poll - so I don't believe it.

FP, if that's what you got out of what I wrote, I think you missed a few points. Here's the poll data so you can double-check.

http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Preliminary_ONE-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-Nov-12-13-21-23.pdf

fungus pudding
28-11-2016, 08:15 AM
FP, if that's what you got out of what I wrote, I think you missed a few points. Here's the poll data so you can double-check.

http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Preliminary_ONE-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-Nov-12-13-21-23.pdf

I'm sure I will have missed a few points in your post. I didn't read it.

elZorro
28-11-2016, 06:28 PM
I'm sure I will have missed a few points in your post. I didn't read it.

At least you're honest. But I thought the whole point of a political forum is to rebut other contributor's points of view, if you don't like their "uninformed" opinions.

elZorro
30-11-2016, 06:29 AM
Here are Labour's announced policies at the moment.

http://www.labour.org.nz/announced_policies

In particular, the policies relating to KiwiBuild and the dropping of penalties on provisional tax payments for businesses are very good (the latter policy has been released, but I didn't notice it in the press). Labour would also pay for half of a light rail system in part of Auckland, backing up Phil Goff's take on the scheme. These are all good, smart ideas that will make NZ a better place.

Labour and the Greens start looking at electoral deals:

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/labour-and-greens-begin-bargaining-2017-election-seats

Note that some Labour and Green Party faithful will be reluctant to go to this level, but we are decades behind National, who have done it for the Act party and others. And the big difference here is that neither party is giving up a seat that they could win by themselves, whereas National could have won Epsom if they wanted to. They truly gamed the system.

craic
30-11-2016, 07:37 AM
I am surprised at the number of Labour supporters who will not vote if the Greens are in the mix. They all have reasons related to Green policies that go against their interest in one area or another. Many are involved in farming or related.

fungus pudding
30-11-2016, 07:51 AM
I am surprised at the number of Labour supporters who will not vote if the Greens are in the mix.

I'm not.
.

RGR367
30-11-2016, 03:03 PM
I'm not.
.

And looks like Mana electorate will finally have a National MP after 2017 election :) http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/87049997/high-profile-defection-of-nick-leggett-to-national-will-rock-labour

craic
30-11-2016, 04:39 PM
Looks like there Is a growing need for a new left party to replace Labour. First requirement is a charismatic leader to appear. As both Trump and Key are spoken for, it looks as if we will have to settle for an overstayer.

westerly
30-11-2016, 05:27 PM
Looks like there Is a growing need for a new left party to replace Labour. First requirement is a charismatic leader to appear. As both Trump and Key are spoken for, it looks as if we will have to settle for an overstayer.

How about you Craic?

westerly

jonu
30-11-2016, 07:38 PM
How about you Craic?

westerly

I can see it now. A chainsaw crossed with an axe as an emblem to represent the working man, maybe overlaid on a shamrock to represent...hell I don't know. Even old Craic will have to figure out a way to appeal to the female vote however, we are after all post millenials. Maybe a shapely leg in killer heels across the saw instead of the axe. Hmm.. maybe too suggestive. I'm sure he'll come up with something equally inappropriate :p

winner69
30-11-2016, 11:58 PM
David Farrar in twitterland -

@dpfdpf: Wow Labour 23% in Roy Morgan poll. If they drop 1% more then they get no List MPs and Andrew Luttle doesn't make it back to Parliament

winner69
01-12-2016, 12:17 AM
Must be another dodgy poll result

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Support for National 49.5% (up 1.5%) has consolidated at nearly half the New Zealand electorate during November as a series of earthquakes struck central parts of New Zealand including the Capital Wellington and parts of the South Island towards Christchurch.

“However, any concerns about a recurrence of the disastrous 2011 Christchurch earthquake have certainly not negatively impacted support for the Government – now at its strongest lead since July. In contrast, the poor performance of Labour in November will be a concern for Opposition Leader Andrew Little heading into an election year with a figurative ‘mountain to climb’. Labour has plunged to support of only 23% (down 3.5%) – Labour’s lowest support since late 2014.

“In addition to the rise in National support both the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence – now at 127.2 (up 4.3pts) and the New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – now at 141 (up 14.5pts) are at their highest levels since early 2015.”

elZorro
01-12-2016, 06:44 AM
I am surprised at the number of Labour supporters who will not vote if the Greens are in the mix. They all have reasons related to Green policies that go against their interest in one area or another. Many are involved in farming or related.

Craic, are you suggesting that a significant proportion of Labour supporters are farmers? That doesn't appear to be the case, they are far more likely to be diehard National/Act people. In addition, the Greens always do better in urban electorates, and will have a strong attempt in Nelson, mainly because they have been bequeathed substantial funds, as long as they are spent by the Green Party in the Nelson/Tasman area.

For decades, most or all rural electorates are taken by National, and it's in the urban or lifestyle areas that the battle for Labour/Green votes is most fruitful. Are some of these people in the "farming or related" category, yes they will be, and many will be looking hard at the economic and environmental results from National's policies over the years.

blackcap
01-12-2016, 06:45 AM
David Farrar in twitterland -

@dpfdpf: Wow Labour 23% in Roy Morgan poll. If they drop 1% more then they get no List MPs and Andrew Luttle doesn't make it back to Parliament

That is actually a serious problem Labour has at the moment. See them do a few deals with the Greens or other parties (National maybe) where they do not contest certain electorates (Hutt South) so that they do get a few needed list MP's into parliament.

fungus pudding
01-12-2016, 06:53 AM
That is actually a serious problem Labour has at the moment. See them do a few deals with the Greens or other parties (National maybe) where they do not contest certain electorates (Hutt South) so that they do get a few needed list MP's into parliament.

It's not the electorate vote that gives them list members.

blackcap
01-12-2016, 07:04 AM
It's not the electorate vote that gives them list members.

What I meant was that they give up on contesting certain electorates.... so they get less electorate MP's in thus allowing them to have more list MP's. Hope that makes sense.

fungus pudding
01-12-2016, 07:11 AM
What I meant was that they give up on contesting certain electorates.... so they get less electorate MP's in thus allowing them to have more list MP's. Hope that makes sense.

That would be an admission that they can't attract quality candidates to stand in electorates.

blackcap
01-12-2016, 07:15 AM
That would be an admission that they can't attract quality candidates to stand in electorates.

I was thinking more along the lines of making sure that Little, Ardern and Parker got back into Parliament...

fungus pudding
01-12-2016, 07:49 AM
I was thinking more along the lines of making sure that Little, Ardern and Parker got back into Parliament...

Yes. I see what you mean. Interesting that Little seems to have driven Nick Leggett away from Labour; although he always struck me as being a bit too bright to fit in with them. Good luck to him in National. He'll do well.

winner69
01-12-2016, 07:56 AM
I was thinking more along the lines of making sure that Little, Ardern and Parker got back into Parliament...

Some might say better (long term) if they lost heir jobs

westerly
01-12-2016, 09:43 AM
David Farrar in twitterland -

@dpfdpf: Wow Labour 23% in Roy Morgan poll. If they drop 1% more then they get no List MPs and Andrew Luttle doesn't make it back to Parliament

Two polls the same week. Colmar has Labour28%, Morgan has Labour 23%

Go figure, Key and his buddies more exposed on tv? No one reads newspapers these days.

Chris Trotter had an interesting article in the Press re the lack of opposition to the implementation of the rights policies.
FP won,t read it though.

westerly

fungus pudding
01-12-2016, 11:57 AM
Two polls the same week. Colmar has Labour28%, Morgan has Labour 23%
Chris Trotter had an interesting article in the Press re the lack of opposition to the implementation of the rights policies.
FP won,t read it though.

westerly

You might be wrong about that. Trotter has become far more sensible in the last few years. There was certainly a time where reading any of his articles was pointless.

macduffy
01-12-2016, 03:23 PM
I was thinking more along the lines of making sure that Little, Ardern and Parker got back into Parliament...

And here I was, after all these years of MMP, thinking that it was possible to stand as an electorate MP, get defeated, and still get back into parliament provided one was high enough up on the party list.

:ohmy:

fungus pudding
01-12-2016, 03:52 PM
And here I was, after all these years of MMP, thinking that it was possible to stand as an electorate MP, get defeated, and still get back into parliament provided one was high enough up on the party list.

:ohmy:

and so it is.

elZorro
02-12-2016, 06:29 PM
We all know that Michael Wood will be the MP for Mt Roskill after tomorrow's by-election.

Labour can do without Nick Leggatt, no problem. Stuart Nash is standing true to his roots, which are strongly Labour. And John Key doesn't want to be within cooey of Parmjeet Parmar tomorrow, their candidate.

http://www.newshub.co.nz/politics/national-poaching-labour-mps-2016120113

It's all a matter of how much of a majority Michael Wood achieves.

fungus pudding
02-12-2016, 06:38 PM
It's all a matter of how much of a majority Michael Wood achieves.

No it's not. It's a by election in a traditional Labour seat. The result will tell you nothing at all.

elZorro
02-12-2016, 08:24 PM
No it's not. It's a by election in a traditional Labour seat. The result will tell you nothing at all.

Au contraire, my superficial friend. Byelections (or by-elections) do throw up surprises, as this well-researched article shows.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/67524252/northland-byelection-when-safe-seats-go-rogue

Of course, after this article was written, Winston romped in for Northland after a very well-planned campaign. National is still smarting over that one. As far as Mt Roskill is concerned, Phil Goff held it for many years, and he has a great reputation. However, the party vote went to National in 2014.

Since the byelection mainly judges the candidate's suitability to represent the electorate, it's more of a character vote. Has National put up the best they can? Or is Parmjeet more of a party hack list MP, who repeats the latest mantra and has very little else to offer? Could National have taken Mt Roskill with a better candidate, and by how much will they lose tomorrow? It'll be very interesting.

777
02-12-2016, 08:59 PM
[I]

Or is Parmjeet more of a party hack list MP, who repeats the latest mantra and has very little else to offer?

Sounds like a Labour candidate's qualification.

fungus pudding
03-12-2016, 06:17 AM
Au contraire, my superficial friend. Byelections (or by-elections) do throw up surprises, as this well-researched article shows.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/67524252/northland-byelection-when-safe-seats-go-rogue

Of course, after this article was written, Winston romped in for Northland after a very well-planned campaign. National is still smarting over that one. As far as Mt Roskill is concerned, Phil Goff held it for many years, and he has a great reputation. However, the party vote went to National in 2014.

Since the byelection mainly judges the candidate's suitability to represent the electorate, it's more of a character vote. Has National put up the best they can? Or is Parmjeet more of a party hack list MP, who repeats the latest mantra and has very little else to offer? Could National have taken Mt Roskill with a better candidate, and by how much will they lose tomorrow? It'll be very interesting.

Kit-Kat time again for you eZ.

P.S. I predict that no matter the outcome of the by-election, eZ will interpret it as a sign from above that Labour are making a miraculous comeback.

elZorro
03-12-2016, 07:41 AM
We're not allowed to comment on the by-election until 7pm today.

fungus pudding
03-12-2016, 09:21 AM
We're not allowed to comment on the by-election until 7pm today.


Fair enough. I won't even mention Andrew Little's dismal performance on the Nation this morning, until this evening.

winner69
03-12-2016, 11:07 AM
Hooton in NBR has Labour on edge of extinction and also made the comment "If New Zealand had an opposition of even minimal competence and charisma over the last three years Key would be on his way out"

Hooten biased as hell ...but one tends to agree with him

westerly
03-12-2016, 11:14 AM
[QUOTE=fungus pudding;646906]Fair enough. I won't even mention Andrew Little's dismal performance on the Nation this morning,

But you would say that, whatever?
westerly

fungus pudding
03-12-2016, 11:36 AM
But you would say that, whatever?
westerly

Yes, I do have that honest streak in me.

westerly
03-12-2016, 12:07 PM
Yes, I do have that honest streak in me.

Not a bias?

westerly

fungus pudding
03-12-2016, 12:38 PM
Not a bias?

westerly
Definitely not.

elZorro
03-12-2016, 06:33 PM
Vernon Small tweet at 7.25pm:


Early votes give Wood 64.4% in Mt Roskill, which if sustained would be a remarkable result. CF Goff's 55.85 albeit with Greens and NZF in

I think it's a bit early to call Labour being on the verge of extinction, W69. Even though I know you're only stirring :). Matthew Hooton is entitled to his own opinion. He was not entitled to fiddle with iPredict in National's favour before reporting on it, but he did (I saw the bets going on). That's not possible now, but if it had still been up and running like normal, I'd possibly have made a small fortune betting on Michael Wood's chances in the early stages.

fungus pudding
03-12-2016, 06:53 PM
Now try and contain yourself eZ, but Michael Wood is going to win.

elZorro
03-12-2016, 08:05 PM
Now try and contain yourself eZ, but Michael Wood is going to win.

By a long way.

79% counted

Wood (Lab) 67%
Parmar (Nat) 27%

Turnout is down, so the electorate majority will be lower for Labour, but those percentage differences are huge. They didn't like Parmar, trusted Labour's Michael Wood more.

Anyway what was on the Nation with Andrew Little, FP, was it the 60 second joke bit? He warmed up in the second half of it.

fungus pudding
04-12-2016, 06:07 AM
By a long way.

79% counted

Wood (Lab) 67%
Parmar (Nat) 27%

Turnout is down, so the electorate majority will be lower for Labour, but those percentage differences are huge. They didn't like Parmar, trusted Labour's Michael Wood more.

Anyway what was on the Nation with Andrew Little, FP, was it the 60 second joke bit? He warmed up in the second half of it.

If he's got a personality, he sure kept it well hidden.
But I've been wondering about your conflicting statements.
You claim that Little will stay as leader cos there's been enough changes for a decade. Then you say you don't think Labour is in the dying stages.
You know as well as I do these two statements cannot both be accurate and co-exist. One must be wrong. Personally I think Little will go, but you may think it will be the party that goes. Which is more likely in your opinion?

elZorro
04-12-2016, 08:51 AM
If he's got a personality, he sure kept it well hidden.
But I've been wondering about your conflicting statements.
You claim that Little will stay as leader cos there's been enough changes for a decade. Then you say you don't think Labour is in the dying stages.
You know as well as I do these two statements cannot both be accurate and co-exist. One must be wrong. Personally I think Little will go, but you may think it will be the party that goes. Which is more likely in your opinion?

No, I think the Labour Party will rebound in 2017, partly because of the 'three terms in - three terms out' rule, partly because of better organisation, and partly because they will have kept with the same leader long enough for voters to remember who he/she is. I think all of the other leaders we burned through, would have been fine too. They are just leaders, they are not the entire caucus or party. Voters think quite shallowly though, on average. That's how we ended up with John Key as PM.

You know all this of course, and one sure way of derailing Labour at this point would be to change leaders again. They're not that stupid, and they have also finally rediscovered door-knocking as a way of getting votes.

Michael Wood on Q&A was quite up front about that, I think they didn't pay too much attention to building a database of voters across the electorate and wasting time on that, they just went out and knocked on heaps of doors, and had good sensible Labour policies to back it up with.

fungus pudding
04-12-2016, 08:59 AM
No, I think the Labour Party will rebound in 2017, partly because of the 'three terms in - three terms out' rule,


Silly me! I never realised there was such a rule.

elZorro
04-12-2016, 09:05 AM
Silly me! I never realised there was such a rule.

There has been lately, look it up.

There was only one journalist who predicted that Parmar would do badly.

http://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/26-11-2016/nzs-feeblest-john-key-parrot-is-on-the-brink-of-a-shellacking-in-mt-roskill/

A low emotional IQ, just like John Key, only not so good at hiding it.

The SST had the tiniest of references to the by-election this morning, on page 2 under another heading. Very poor I thought, they couldn't have done less with the story. Rod Oram had another thought-provoking article about John Key's tendency to play with the figures to support National's arguments.

fungus pudding
04-12-2016, 09:15 AM
There has been lately, look it up


I have no idea where I could 'look it up'. I'd really be grateful if you could quote the exact rule and tell me where to find it. Just a word of advice - reading anything by Rod Oram can lead to severe depression. Listening to him is worse.

winner69
04-12-2016, 11:16 AM
National under Holyoake did 4 terms

Due for another 4 term government methinks.

winner69
04-12-2016, 11:19 AM
By-election outcome was good for National, esp when one news report said if trends carried over to the general election Key would be out. What a load of ****e.

Good for National because Little is even more ensconced as leader of Labour after that resounding win.

fungus pudding
04-12-2016, 12:46 PM
National under Holyoake did 4 terms

Due for another 4 term government methinks.

Ez says there's a rule that prevents anymore than 3 terms. Unfortunately he hasn't said who made the rule, or who enforces it; or even if National know about this mysterious rule. I'm shocked to hear that Kiwi Keith Holyoake broke it.

elZorro
04-12-2016, 01:09 PM
National under Holyoake did 4 terms

Due for another 4 term government methinks.

You had to go all the way back to the man from Kinloch? That was my point - in recent times governments in NZ have not lasted longer than three terms, but there has been a strong trend for parties to stay in for three consecutive terms. Could be Labour's slogan for 2017 - Three Strikes and You're Out, John.

W69, I have noted your regression from thinking swinging voter (or so you would have me believe) to diehard National. I urge you to keep reading up on National's actual successes so far, measured against their promises, and also carefully compare the policies of National vs Labour-Greens. Not just looking at your own situation, but towards the generations to follow, and the wider NZ public. Being selfish with your vote won't always provide the best result.

fungus pudding
04-12-2016, 01:22 PM
You had to go all the way back to the man from Kinloch? That was my point - in recent times governments in NZ have not lasted longer than three terms, but there has been a strong trend for parties to stay in for three consecutive terms. Could be Labour's slogan for 2017 - Three Strikes and You're Out, John.

W69, I have noted your regression from thinking swinging voter (or so you would have me believe) to diehard National. I urge you to keep reading up on National's actual successes so far, measured against their promises, and also carefully compare the policies of National vs Labour-Greens. Not just looking at your own situation, but towards the generations to follow, and the wider NZ public. Being selfish with your vote won't always provide the best result.

Still not telling us who made this 3 term rule? Pity. I am certainly not a die-hard National; but over recent elections there has been no sensible alternative. I cannot understand voters who blindly support one party - especially when you consider how they have more or less swapped places occasionally, and still follow them like Labour supporters when it's apparent they should put their energy into forming a new party, or alternatively, bite the bullet once more and find an electable leader. There is one in Labour - who come to think of it might just make a move all on his own accord.

Sgt Pepper
04-12-2016, 02:40 PM
Still not telling us who made this 3 term rule? Pity. I am certainly not a die-hard National; but over recent elections there has been no sensible alternative. I cannot understand voters who blindly support one party - especially when you consider how they have more or less swapped places occasionally, and still follow them like Labour supporters when it's apparent they should put their energy into forming a new party, or alternatively, bite the bullet once more and find an electable leader. There is one in Labour - who come to think of it might just make a move all on his own accord.

I am intrigued. Who might that be?

GTM 3442
04-12-2016, 02:47 PM
Ez says there's a rule that prevents anymore than 3 terms. Unfortunately he hasn't said who made the rule, or who enforces it; or even if National know about this mysterious rule. I'm shocked to hear that Kiwi Keith Holyoake broke it.

Oh, fungus! Stop teasing El Zorro!

You know as well as I do that it's a rule of behavior derived from history.

And like all good rules, there's an exception to prove it - 1969, when National won a fourth term.

Out of interest, you might like to consider Kirk's standing in public opinion in 1969 vs his standing in 1972.

Do you think Mister Little can make a similar leap? If not, who's the Bill Rowling of the late 2010's, eh?

GTM 3442
04-12-2016, 02:50 PM
2017 - Three Strikes and You're Out, John.
.

I think I prefer "Three in a row - time to go"

But you may want to reflect on WHY Sir Keith was able to make it four on the trot.

fungus pudding
04-12-2016, 04:12 PM
Do you think Mister Little can make a similar leap? If not, who's the Bill Rowling of the late 2010's, eh?

Rowling, who was hopeless, would run rings around Little. It amazes me that Labour, who know this, are boxing on, hope against hope, that he'll pick up support in the next ten months. He won't.

As for suggesting I was teasing eZ! That's preposterous. :scared:We both know I would never do such a thing. :t_up:

elZorro
04-12-2016, 05:03 PM
Rowling, who was hopeless, would run rings around Little. It amazes me that Labour, who know this, are boxing on, hope against hope, that he'll pick up support in the next ten months. He won't.

As for suggesting I was teasing eZ! That's preposterous. :scared:We both know I would never do such a thing. :t_up:

Teasing? And I thought you were just parroting brainless conversation. It's always a major strategy of National to discredit the leader of Labour. Yet their own leader has a ponytail fetish, lies or fibs all the time, has a low emotional IQ, can't handle a hammer or a spade, and as some wit said, if he wasn't looked after, he'd die of starvation.

John tries to have it both ways. If Treasury's long-term predictions are always well out, then the whole premise of 10 years of Crown deficits from 2008 was also invalid - yet National used a Treasury report forecast as a major election plank.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11758244

fungus pudding
04-12-2016, 05:15 PM
It's always a major strategy of National to discredit the leader of Labour.

And it's exceedingly generous of Little to make it so easy for them.

elZorro
04-12-2016, 05:44 PM
And it's exceedingly generous of Little to make it so easy for them.

Well, if John Key is so great, let's see if National uses his face on the election hoardings in 2017. I hope they do.

GTM 3442
04-12-2016, 06:03 PM
Well, if John Key is so great, let's see if National uses his face on the election hoardings in 2017. I hope they do.

History tells us that it is very unusual for a New Zealand political party to manage four consecutive terms in office.

Mister Key is a very astute politician. I think he also has a strong aversion to the loss of mana which would come from losing.

So if he is going to lead the National party into the 2017 election, I think it can only mean that he strongly believes that National will win.

And so would be quite keen to see the nation bespattered with his likeness.

As for whether he's right, well we only have to sit back, turn the sound down, pop the corn,and wait for all to be revealed.

winner69
04-12-2016, 06:07 PM
You had to go all the way back to the man from Kinloch? That was my point - in recent times governments in NZ have not lasted longer than three terms, but there has been a strong trend for parties to stay in for three consecutive terms. Could be Labour's slogan for 2017 - Three Strikes and You're Out, John.

W69, I have noted your regression from thinking swinging voter (or so you would have me believe) to diehard National. I urge you to keep reading up on National's actual successes so far, measured against their promises, and also carefully compare the policies of National vs Labour-Greens. Not just looking at your own situation, but towards the generations to follow, and the wider NZ public. Being selfish with your vote won't always provide the best result.

EZ -can't remember when I last voted National, and I don't have any intention of voting for them this time around

We need change .....maybe a revolution even.

But Labour not the team to lead that change. They essentially the same as National anyway (ie too mainstream)

Somebody with no baggage is needed - maybe Morgan is that man for 2020

elZorro
04-12-2016, 06:24 PM
EZ -can't remember when I last voted National, and I don't have any intention of voting for them this time around

We need change .....maybe a revolution even.

But Labour not the team to lead that change. They essentially the same as National anyway (ie too mainstream)

Somebody with no baggage is needed - maybe Morgan is that man for 2020

As long as you don't vote ACT then..I'm unsure where your vote would go in 2017. From my point of view Labour is entirely different from National. The reason National sometimes looks similar to Labour is that they have to keep pinching their main opposition's policies and water them down a fair bit, to put up a pretence that they're doing some thinking. Framed in terms of climate change, which I am still very concerned about whenever I think about its potential, there is no better party to take on planning for that, than a Labour-Green coalition. Labour have been in power before, always left behind strong policy changes that were not unwound, and the Greens have been doing serious thinking about climate change for decades.

GTM 3442
04-12-2016, 10:00 PM
"Framed in terms of climate change, which I am still very concerned about whenever I think about its potential, there is no better party to take on planning for that, than a Labour-Green coalition. "

In terms of planning, when do you think the Greens plan to remove the headline/links "2014 Election Priorities" and "2015 Climate Action" from the "Policy" page of their website?

[\sorrycantresist]
[\quietlynowfungus]

iceman
05-12-2016, 01:51 AM
Here are Labour's announced policies at the moment.

http://www.labour.org.nz/announced_policies

In particular, the policies relating to KiwiBuild and the dropping of penalties on provisional tax payments for businesses are very good (the latter policy has been released, but I didn't notice it in the press). Labour would also pay for half of a light rail system in part of Auckland, backing up Phil Goff's take on the scheme. These are all good, smart ideas that will make NZ a better place.

Labour and the Greens start looking at electoral deals:

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/labour-and-greens-begin-bargaining-2017-election-seats

Note that some Labour and Green Party faithful will be reluctant to go to this level, but we are decades behind National, who have done it for the Act party and others. And the big difference here is that neither party is giving up a seat that they could win by themselves, whereas National could have won Epsom if they wanted to. They truly gamed the system.

I am very surprised to see that Labour's high rank in Wellington has decided to give up on Nelson's electorate seat and recommend its supporters vote for the Green candidate. Not surprised that there is an exodus from the Labour Party with umpteen resignations in this former Labour stronghold as a result !!

fungus pudding
05-12-2016, 05:05 AM
I am intrigued. Who might that be?



http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11760305

elZorro
05-12-2016, 06:43 AM
I am very surprised to see that Labour's high rank in Wellington has decided to give up on Nelson's electorate seat and recommend its supporters vote for the Green candidate. Not surprised that there is an exodus from the Labour Party with umpteen resignations in this former Labour stronghold as a result !!

Nick Smith has been the MP for Nelson since 1996. Maryan Street was the capable Labour candidate up against him in 2014, still well short. Before that, yes, 20 years ago, it was held by Labour, from 1956 to 1996. So it was a Labour stronghold, but now it's a National stronghold. Will the Greens want to go head-to-head with Nick Smith on environmental issues, and National's performance there? You bet.

By the way, how many is umpteen?

elZorro
05-12-2016, 06:53 AM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11760305

I like the look of Stuart Nash too. He probably needs to prove his worth in general duties, though, for a few years. I like the way he knows how to get himself elected. He had personal contacts that provided lots of funds, probably three times more than, on average, other Labour electorates worked with. There is generally a formula for the cost of a vote, the price per vote goes up as you try to get a higher percentage, so the further behind you start, the higher the cost to win an electorate.

If that sounds shallow, it's probably more true than you'd think. Fundraising for the Labour party and their candidates will be an important step in 2017. Stuart also did a lot of doorknocking in 2014, and if he's already doing street corner meetings, he's onto it.

dobby41
05-12-2016, 07:09 AM
Rod Oram had another thought-provoking article about John Key's tendency to play with the figures to support National's arguments.

And a good piece too.
Pity JK is never really called out on this - he is very Trumpish but a lot more refined.

elZorro
05-12-2016, 07:51 AM
And a good piece too.
Pity JK is never really called out on this - he is very Trumpish but a lot more refined.

You have to ask, why were the main papers so slow on reporting the by-election result, it's up to commentators, not reporters, to give us a bit of balanced research most often. Don't forget, that sitting MPs have the parliamentary funds for regular ads in newspapers. So often, that regular income trumps an unbiased view.

fungus pudding
05-12-2016, 08:04 AM
I like the look of Stuart Nash too. He probably needs to prove his worth in general duties, though, for a few years. I like the way he knows how to get himself elected. He had personal contacts that provided lots of funds, probably three times more than, on average, other Labour electorates worked with. There is generally a formula for the cost of a vote, the price per vote goes up as you try to get a higher percentage, so the further behind you start, the higher the cost to win an electorate.

If that sounds shallow, it's probably more true than you'd think. Fundraising for the Labour party and their candidates will be an important step in 2017. Stuart also did a lot of doorknocking in 2014, and if he's already doing street corner meetings, he's onto it.

He is the sensible replacement for Little, and if it's not very soon then Labour are simply handing the next election to National. He seems to have the right credentials for the role, and would undoubtedly have wider appeal than wooden Andy. On the downside - he's a male, and the mere suggestion of the fifth male in a row as leader will have some of the party w@nkers screaming the gender equality line. There is another probably suitable leader, but also a male, and I'm sure you know who I mean. Pity. Some see Kelvin Davis as leadership material. I don't, but he seems to be a fair enough MP.
I will confess to winding you up occasionally, but I'm serious: if you don't see the damage Little is doing to Labour you should throw away the blinkers. Even Hardened Labour supporters, and I know some who are staunch as a Trump wall, cannot visualise Little as P.M.

iceman
05-12-2016, 08:56 AM
Nick Smith has been the MP for Nelson since 1996. Maryan Street was the capable Labour candidate up against him in 2014, still well short. Before that, yes, 20 years ago, it was held by Labour, from 1956 to 1996. So it was a Labour stronghold, but now it's a National stronghold. Will the Greens want to go head-to-head with Nick Smith on environmental issues, and National's performance there? You bet.

By the way, how many is umpteen?

Nick has been a very popular electorate MP due to his relentless work for constituents. A large part of them are constituents that have not and probably never will vote National. Labour only lost the party vote a couple of elections ago from memory, which was a biggie for National in this Labour town.
Maryan Street was a visible candidate there for 3 elections from memory, but lost them all. She garnered support and votes from hardened Labour supporters but failed to make any inroads into swing or undecided voters. A strategic blunder from Labour to have her as a candidate.
They are hoping giving up and handing the fight over to the Greens will be a better option. I don't think so. While the electorate has many voters with very pro environment views, it also has a majority of voters who rely a lot on various primary industries for their livelihoods. They have no less concern for the environment but different and less radical views on how to best protect it without destroying all industries. Nick has been a good advocate of that approach.
I don't have access to the Nelson Labour Party membership records but loud rumours are that many have left.

Agree with you and FP about Stuart Nash. He seems capable and sensible but will probably be classed as a crazy right winger by the failed top brass in Wellington, like they did to Leggett who then departed to National to have a future in politics.

Continuing with Little at the helm has Labour on the road to extinction.

craic
05-12-2016, 09:20 AM
Stuart Nash and several other dignitaries were in attendance at a dinner at the Napier RSA to celebrate our 100th anniversary on Saturday night. I think that he probably has enough support in Napier to retain his seat, however, at the last election he had the good fortune to have Garth McVicar ( Sensible Sentencing Trust) who is a well regarded local, divide the National vote and a National candidate who was unknown and never really came out from under his sheet. I have no idea who will front for National next year but this area is growing in prosperity and the Greens are looking to interfere here with little support.

Peitro
05-12-2016, 12:02 PM
Interesting times, Retirement age to go up to 67 now

fungus pudding
05-12-2016, 12:05 PM
Interesting times, Retirement age to go up to 67 now
Key resigning. Shame.

cyclist
05-12-2016, 12:19 PM
Interesting times, Retirement age to go up to 67 now

I haven't seen this. Can you provide a source?

777
05-12-2016, 12:42 PM
I haven't seen this. Can you provide a source?

Speculation, but it needs to be increased with adjustments to certain people within our community that need it.

RGR367
05-12-2016, 12:46 PM
It's all over the news now. Good on you Mr. Key and GL.

elZorro
05-12-2016, 01:04 PM
It's a pity I'm so busy at work. Wow, this will be interesting.

fungus pudding
05-12-2016, 01:04 PM
It's all over the news now. Good on you Mr. Key and GL.

Yes. Good on you and best wishes. A lot of well wishers from all political corners - apart from misery, grizzleguts, Winston Peters of course.

777
05-12-2016, 01:17 PM
Actually Winstone let himself down today.

macduffy
05-12-2016, 01:32 PM
Yes, well done, JK! The only NZ prime minister to leave office on his own terms!

:)

Peitro
05-12-2016, 01:45 PM
I haven't seen this. Can you provide a source?

Pure speculation - but the age hike will definitely be hastened now. It needs to.

fungus pudding
05-12-2016, 01:46 PM
Pure speculation - but the age hike will definitely be hastened now. It needs to.

No it doesn't.

BlackPeter
05-12-2016, 01:49 PM
Interesting times, Retirement age to go up to 67 now

Why would you say this? John Key retired with 55, which should mean retirement age is dropping ;)!

Aaron
05-12-2016, 01:53 PM
Well done John Key PM since 2008. Has worked quietly but steadily to make NZ a more unequal society and succeeded without any major protest and has maintained popularity with a majority of kiwis even though his policies and ideology are unlikely to benefit the majority. I may not agree with him but he is obviously a high achiever and has made a difference to society for better or for worse.

Peitro
05-12-2016, 02:06 PM
No it doesn't.

You are right, means testing or 30% GST would 'work' too

fungus pudding
05-12-2016, 02:14 PM
You are right, means testing or 30% GST would 'work' too

Neither of those are necessary either.

Marilyn Munroe
05-12-2016, 02:16 PM
John Key: "rediscover family life."

I hope John has the good sense to avoid being press ganged into sorting out Bank of America.

That would be a labour of Hercules and mean no time to rediscover family life.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Sgt Pepper
05-12-2016, 02:22 PM
Yes. Good on you and best wishes. A lot of well wishers from all political corners - apart from misery, grizzleguts, Winston Peters of course.

So who will aspire to the leadership of National and who will prevail? Some observations

1. Bill English: Is he really a long term contender? Been in Parliament 20 years, intelligent, capable but a terrible retail politician.
2. Judith Collins: Labours dream candidiate
3. Gerry Brownlee: Likeable, smart and hard working. But probably doesnt want the job
4.Paula Bennett: has already been promoted beyond her capability
5. Steven Joyce : not prime minister material.

Best Choices for Nationals Future
1. Simon Bridges.
2. Michael Woodhouse: smart, capable


PS. I did predict that he would resign some time ago, and copped much derision from the National posters

fungus pudding
05-12-2016, 02:30 PM
So who will aspire to the leadership of National and who will prevail? Some observations

1. Bill English: Is he really a long term contender? Been in Parliament 20 years, intelligent, capable but a terrible retail politician.
2. Judith Collins: Labours dream candidiate
3. Gerry Brownlee: Likeable, smart and hard working. But probably doesnt want the job
4.Paula Bennett: has already been promoted beyond her capability
5. Steven Joyce : not prime minister material.

Best Choices for Nationals Future
1. Simon Bridges.
2. Michael Woodhouse: smart, capable


PS. I did predict that he would resign some time ago, and copped much derision from the National posters

Then there's Amy Adams. A quiet achiever with head screwed on properly but more than capable.

Joshuatree
05-12-2016, 02:41 PM
Im hearing that Key has had enough too and that he will leave after the next election; win or lose.
You heard it here first folks.

Sgt Pepper
05-12-2016, 02:46 PM
Then there's Amy Adams. A quiet achiever with head screwed on properly but more than capable.

I didnt think about her. She came to a Forum a few years ago which Michael Woodhouse organised. She came off better in person than on TV.

dobby41
05-12-2016, 02:56 PM
PS. I did predict that he would resign some time ago, and copped much derision from the National posters[/B][/I]

Show us the post.
Exactly what did you predict?
I thought he would resign at some stage (and definately if he lost an election) but didn't see this timing coming.
I expected he would see National to a 4th term then leave.

dobby41
05-12-2016, 02:57 PM
You heard it here first folks.

So after the next election is the same as before?

Joshuatree
05-12-2016, 03:03 PM
The first bit of info was given to me and i added the 2nd without thinking it through.Prob common knowledge around parliament but a fact now.

Sgt Pepper
05-12-2016, 03:14 PM
Show us the post.
Exactly what did you predict?
I thought he would resign at some stage (and definately if he lost an election) but didn't see this timing coming.
I expected he would see National to a 4th term then leave.


My post dated December 2014 no6529


I think John Key needs a Kit Kat and a relaxing holiday.I (almost) feel sorry for him.


I am reasonably certain that he will resign as leader in late 2016/early 2017. The media, I believe, have turned on him.He will sniff the political wind and go.

Hope you have a relaxing and enjoyable Christmas






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Joshuatree
05-12-2016, 03:22 PM
Touche Sgt Pepper:t_up:

elZorro
05-12-2016, 04:00 PM
My post dated December 2014 no6529


I think John Key needs a Kit Kat and a relaxing holiday.I (almost) feel sorry for him.


I am reasonably certain that he will resign as leader in late 2016/early 2017. The media, I believe, have turned on him.He will sniff the political wind and go.

Hope you have a relaxing and enjoyable Christmas






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I had some bets on iPredict that Key would go in 2016, sold them all a month ago, and then iPredict shut up shop a few days ago too. I'm hopeless at gambling.

Banksie
05-12-2016, 04:05 PM
...and then iPredict shut up shop a few days ago... Coincidence? I think not ;).

elZorro
05-12-2016, 06:30 PM
Coincidence? I think not ;).

Actually it lines up with the govt decision, I should have expected it. They were given 12 months grace.

Plenty of coverage in the new channels on TV, good words being spoken. I have no doubt that it's a very tough job, very tough on families, the PM's time, and it's not even well paid, on the face of it. There might be a few perks making up for it, like super, but again they wouldn't compare with a corporate high-earner's income.

Hence Helen Clark, Andrew Little and James Shaw, amongst others, acknowledged this. This stint came at a cost to John Key and his family. It will come at a personal cost to any PM. One thing I found missing was a noticeable legacy, something left behind that we could all point to and say "John Key did that". Maybe I missed something. What was it again?

https://bootstheory.wordpress.com/2016/12/05/earworm-for-the-day-you-barbarians/

777
05-12-2016, 06:41 PM
Well he kept Labour and Greens in opposition because that is where the majority of voters wanted them.

neopoleII
05-12-2016, 07:16 PM
since there will be new runners for the next election on the right side....
will the left side stick with a trade unionist or "place" a new fresh runner into the
2017 election race.
the timing and opportunity for the left wing couldn't be better.
there are some good folks in the left wing stable and ....
another change of leader at this late stage is no longer a hindrance for the left wing.....
so they might as well put up the best they got and go for it.
they have to do it now if they want a real chance......

fungus pudding
05-12-2016, 07:19 PM
since there will be new runners for the next election on the right side....
will the left side stick with a trade unionist or "place" a new fresh runner into the
2017 election race.
the timing and opportunity for the left wing couldn't be better.
there are some good folks in the left wing stable and ....
another change of leader at this late stage is no longer a hindrance for the left wing.....
so they might as well put up the best they got and go for it.
they have to do it now if they want a real chance......

They won't though. They're scared to go for the fifth change since Clark. Posters like eZ on this site think Little is wonderful.

iceman
05-12-2016, 07:37 PM
So who will aspire to the leadership of National and who will prevail? Some observations

1. Bill English: Is he really a long term contender? Been in Parliament 20 years, intelligent, capable but a terrible retail politician.
2. Judith Collins: Labours dream candidiate
3. Gerry Brownlee: Likeable, smart and hard working. But probably doesnt want the job
4.Paula Bennett: has already been promoted beyond her capability
5. Steven Joyce : not prime minister material.

Best Choices for Nationals Future
1. Simon Bridges.
2. Michael Woodhouse: smart, capable


PS. I did predict that he would resign some time ago, and copped much derision from the National posters

My guess would be English and Adams although both being from the South Island may work against that option. A real shame Nikki Kaye is fighting a battle with cancer. Hope she is doing well. She would have been in for a big promotion now.

Agree with other posters that Winston Peters has really let himself down today and showed what a grumpy old man he really is.

winner69
05-12-2016, 08:05 PM
Well, if John Key is so great, let's see if National uses his face on the election hoardings in 2017. I hope they do.

EZ, word got back to Key that you were going to do horrible things to hoardings with his smiling face on them ..... and he though hell I better get out of here and did the honorable thing

elZorro
05-12-2016, 08:39 PM
EZ, word got back to Key that you were going to do horrible things to hoardings with his smiling face on them ..... and he though hell I better get out of here and did the honorable thing

I'm sure John wouldn't be worried about me, they have an efficient crew replacing hoardings, and they can afford it. I was making the point that Brand Key has become susceptible to that kind of thing in the last few years.

NeopoleII, Why would Labour do what National is going to have to do, change leaders less than 1 year before an election? I don't think the party leader is that important, once the voting public have figured out who the leader is, and it takes years. Andrew is probably like many people, not that fond of the camera. He's getting trained up on that, and this latest National saga will boost his confidence no end.

The majority of voters just want a better NZ and a better deal. Dirty politics and a lot more cash saw National obscuring the smart policies that Labour put up in 2014. Maybe they found out in the last by-election that there was nothing wrong with Labour's core policies, they just need to be presented clearly in person, without interference.

fungus pudding
05-12-2016, 09:13 PM
I don't think the party leader is that important,


Are you for real?

Baa_Baa
05-12-2016, 10:06 PM
Are you for real?

Clearly not! Bigotry is unbecoming, blindness is permanent. The two combined is not worth the effort commenting on.

elZorro
06-12-2016, 06:34 AM
I didn't say the leader is unimportant, I'm saying that to look at the leader as the whole party offering, is stupid. The rest of the Labour Party, and potentially the Greens also, have energetic thinkers in there, people keen to write new policies for NZ that are worthy of keeping. What do I see trailing behind the current Prime Minister? There's plenty of dead wood in there, some major blunders have been made by many National ministers.

So now we're hearing all of the sensible reasons for John Key to quit now- family, timing to get Bill English over the line, NZ in a great spot, out on a high, etc.

The fact is that all those people who voted him in again, back in 2014, expected him to stay on as PM until the 2017 elections unless something terrible happened, that was the contract. He said he'd do that job for another three years, he wanted that job. And now he just gets to say "No thanks"?

I think the main reason he's going now, is to keep Brand Key more or less intact. He knows that's still worth quite a bit. In the absence of any team in National putting in another leader, he had to arrange the exit himself.

fungus pudding
06-12-2016, 06:40 AM
I didn't say the leader is unimportant, I'm saying that to look at the leader as the whole party offering, is stupid. The rest of the Labour Party, and potentially the Greens also, have energetic thinkers in there, people keen to write new policies for NZ that are worthy of keeping. What do I see trailing behind the current Prime Minister? There's plenty of dead wood in there, some major blunders have been made by many National ministers.

So now we're hearing all of the sensible reasons for John Key to quit now- family, timing to get Bill English over the line, NZ in a great spot, out on a high, etc.

The fact is that all those people who voted him in again, back in 2014, expected him to stay on as PM until the 2017 elections unless something terrible happened, that was the contract. He said he'd do that job for another three years, he wanted that job. And now he just gets to say "No thanks"?

I think the main reason he's going now, is to keep Brand Key more or less intact. He knows that's still worth quite a bit. In the absence of any team in National putting in another leader, he had to arrange the exit himself.

You're a sad case eZ It would be ridiculous to get to the end of a third term , then announce he wouldn't be standing again. Don't panic though. There are other options in National.

elZorro
06-12-2016, 07:04 AM
You're a sad case eZ It would be ridiculous to get to the end of a third term , then announce he wouldn't be standing again. Don't panic though. There are other options in National.

And those are?

You have to admit that the chances of National taking the 2017 elections have probably dropped quite a bit, so in that way John Key has sabotaged his own party's interests by leaving. Now the public won't be looking at John Key on TV glossing over all the issues, and instead might be starting to think - just what is their policy on this stuff anyway? And is it really in my best interest, or even the interests of the country as a whole? And maybe they'll be offered Labour-Green policies that look a lot more sensible.

I have been watching on TV for some examples of John Key's legacy. Being a smiling, affable TV frontsperson is one thing, guiding us through tough times (you could also say stumbling through), but again there isn't much that is tangible left behind. There have been plenty of other good deeds from previous governments that have been unwound a bit during his time. I detest this government for that.

fungus pudding
06-12-2016, 07:20 AM
And those are?



They're well known.
listen to the news or read a paper. My pick is Amy Adams. Great liming on Key's part, I'm sure you agree, to announce resignation while Labour are without a leader at all.

winner69
06-12-2016, 07:26 AM
A Britsh perspective

Keys real kegacy- not stuffing things up

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/john-keys-real-legacy-lack-blunders/

elZorro
06-12-2016, 08:00 AM
A Britsh perspective

Keys real kegacy- not stuffing things up

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/john-keys-real-legacy-lack-blunders/

That's very insightful, another way of looking at the situation. Is Matthew Plummer a journalist from Wellington? He's too well informed to be based in the UK.

https://twitter.com/mwyp?lang=en

dobby41
06-12-2016, 08:06 AM
Not a bad summation in that article.

BlackPeter
06-12-2016, 08:13 AM
They're well known.
listen to the news or read a paper. My pick is Amy Adams. Great liming on Key's part, I'm sure you agree, to announce resignation while Labour are without a leader at all.

Agree - Amy Adams would be a formidable choice ... and I am saying this not just because she is our local MP ;). She has her head firmly screwed on, the heart in the right place, she cares, is pragmatic and she is able to communicate appropriately with people from all walks of life. Not a political extremist (like Judith ...) and she might be as well the only one able to control the other mentioned female option in cabinet.

I'd love to see her as our next PM, think however that the choice will likely be Bill English. I'd see Bill politically in the same ball park, but he might find it more difficult to long term survive against Judith ... as well, he does have some baggage in the 2002 election results, which Amy has not.

I think Amy could turn into the New Zealand version of Angela Merkel ... interesting times.

fungus pudding
06-12-2016, 08:37 AM
Agree - Amy Adams would be a formidable choice ... and I am saying this not just because she is our local MP ;). She has her head firmly screwed on, the heart in the right place, she cares, is pragmatic and she is able to communicate appropriately with people from all walks of life. Not a political extremist (like Judith ...) and she might be as well the only one able to control the other mentioned female option in cabinet.

I'd love to see her as our next PM, think however that the choice will likely be Bill English. I'd see Bill politically in the same ball park, but he might find it more difficult to long term survive against Judith ... as well, he does have some baggage in the 2002 election results, which Amy has not.

I think Amy could turn into the New Zealand version of Angela Merkel ... interesting times.

Bill is an excellent minister, particularly in finance portfolio. But he's not inspirational, not leadership material, although up against Little he wouldn't look too bad. Your comments about Adams are interesting - you're obviously more familiar with her than I am, having only seen and heard on TV/radio, but she's impressive, quite dynamic, comes across as a class act, and that's what is needed to follow John Key.

RGR367
06-12-2016, 09:03 AM
Voted Amy Adams too in the NBR poll and I'm neither a National nor a Labour party supporter :)

fungus pudding
06-12-2016, 09:11 AM
Voted Amy Adams too in the NBR poll and I'm neither a National nor a Labour party supporter :)


Ah - but have you voted in the important poll ? :D

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10794-Who-is-your-preferred-P-M

RGR367
06-12-2016, 09:45 AM
Ah - but have you voted in the important poll ? :D

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10794-Who-is-your-preferred-P-M

Didn't see it yesterday :( But now I did. Amy Adams it is! :t_up:

RGR367
06-12-2016, 09:52 AM
Now that John Key has resigned, when will Andrew Little give up his leadership of the Labour Party too? It should be soon to make the 2017 election really interesting :p

Joshuatree
06-12-2016, 12:40 PM
Andrew is a real person not the sort of guy whose sole purpose was to do anything to stay in power using crosby/textor, photo opps etc . What legacy will there be for Key; nothing except looking after no 1.

BlackPeter
06-12-2016, 02:55 PM
Andrew is a real person not the sort of guy whose sole purpose was to do anything to stay in power using crosby/textor, photo opps etc . What legacy will there be for Key; nothing except looking after no 1.

Sorry you feel that way about John Key.

From my point of view - Key is the first NZ PM I remember who is after 8 years in government still popular and the first who left on his own account. Every other PM I remember got corrupted by power and left only after getting kicked out by the voters.

He took over the helm in 2008 when the GFC was at its worst and is handing over responsibility 8 years later with the NZ economy being (compared to the other OECD countries) in excellent shape. Low (in comparison) debts and healthy growth rates.

Ah yes - and his party has in the latest polls something like 50% support. Can you remember any Labour PM who ever achieved anything similar?

Sure - nobody is perfect and there are things which could have been dealt with better (e.g. superannuation long term affordability, housing crisis). Problem is that a highly incapable and self centred bunch of opposition parties never managed to offer a credible alternative to John Key. Is this something we should blame John for? I don't think so.

I wish him well and am glad that he was for 8 years our PM, despite a bunch of constantly whinging lefties who always tried to badmouth him, but never managed to offer a better alternative (maybe with the exception of Shearer, but he was too capable and therefore killed off by the Lefties themselves).

macduffy
06-12-2016, 04:16 PM
I wish him well and am glad that he was for 8 years our PM, despite a bunch of constantly whinging lefties who always tried to badmouth him, but never managed to offer a better alternative (maybe with the exception of Shearer, but he was too capable and therefore killed off by the Lefties themselves).


Yes, some of the best years of our lives.

Now wait for the dissenting voices!

:cool:

winner69
06-12-2016, 05:04 PM
OMG - Jonathan Coleman fancies his chances as PM

Labour must be hoping like hell he comes through

elZorro
06-12-2016, 05:18 PM
OMG - Jonathan Coleman fancies his chances as PM

Labour must be hoping like hell he comes through Or Judith Collins, and Bill English would also be fine. Collins might be the unknown, maybe she would get funding from business people, I'm still convinced it all comes down to funding in the end.

The Left shouldn't get too confident, they have to work hard, and get some funds in, as the graph shows.

https://bootstheory.wordpress.com/2016/12/06/my-plea-to-the-new-zealand-left-dont-get-cocky/

westerly
06-12-2016, 05:26 PM
They're well known.
listen to the news or read a paper. My pick is Amy Adams. Great liming on Key's part, I'm sure you agree, to announce resignation while Labour are without a leader at all.

Are you saying National has been too acidic ?

westerly

elZorro
06-12-2016, 05:32 PM
Are you saying National has been too acidic ?

westerly That might be too subtle, my scientific comrade.


We – the left, the progressive movement, pick your own label – now have our best chance in nearly a decade. Not just to win. Not just to get comfy in the back of a Crown limo or find out if the seats really are greener on the other side of the House. We can get a Labour-Green government which plans for the future and rebuilds New Zealand into a country which cares about people, leads the world in our response to climate change and growing corporate power, and promotes strong, progressive values over the nasty, cynical individualism of the right.

Bryce Edwards today, on Key's decision to look after No. 1.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11761271

fungus pudding
06-12-2016, 07:04 PM
We – the left, the progressive movement, pick your own label – now have our best chance in nearly a decade. Not just to win. Not just to get comfy in the back of a Crown limo or find out if the seats really are greener on the other side of the House. We can get a Labour-Green government which plans for the future and rebuilds New Zealand into a country which cares about people, leads the world in our response to climate change and growing corporate power, and promotes strong, progressive values over the nasty, cynical individualism of the right.



You're a little confused here eZ. It is not the National party that has resigned. It is one of their members.

Joshuatree
06-12-2016, 07:30 PM
Yes accurate article about the Selfish Key by Bryce Edwards.

Key's selfish calculationKey has probably seen the writing on the wall. The chances of winning a fourth election, and forming a government without Peters has been growing slimmer. He has therefore decided that it is better to get out now rather than have his legacy eroded by involvement in such failure and fracture.
Hence Key has made a decision based on his own needs - certainly not those of National. There is no doubt that National would have a better chance of winning a fourth term under Key's leadership than anyone else. His leadership is probably worth 3-5 percentage points for National. We might expect that a National Party under Bill English or Paula Bennett would struggle to get even 45 per cent of the party vote. So if Key really believed in helping keep Labour or New Zealand First out of office, he would have stayed to fight on.
Instead he's thrown a "hospital pass" to the rest of the caucus. Bill English will get the job as Prime Minister. He's probably got the best chance of keeping National in with a chance. And in the way that Key has timed his announcement - leaving his caucus only seven days to make a decision - and in his very significant endorsement of English, has effectively acted to keep any other rivals from taking the job.
New Zealand will remember John Key mostly as a successful prime minister. Part of this has been down to his strong forte in making political calculations. There should be no doubt that he used these skills in weighing up whether to go into a fourth election. And he has probably made the right call in judging that the risks to his legacy, reputation, and enjoyment in office were seriously negative if he stayed in the game. But the National Party might have reason to question the consequences of his latest decision



That might be too subtle, my scientific comrade.



Bryce Edwards today, on Key's decision to look after No. 1.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11761271

elZorro
06-12-2016, 08:39 PM
Tom Scott, good one.

dobby41
07-12-2016, 07:14 AM
From my point of view - Key is the first NZ PM I remember who is after 8 years in government still popular and the first who left on his own account. Every other PM I remember got corrupted by power and left only after getting kicked out by the voters.

I didn't realise that the main role of the PM was to stay popular?
You can do that by deferring the hard decisions till some later player - like superann.
Lambast Labour for the housing woes of the time then do nothing about them till they are much worse - look over there, move along nothing to see here.

He has done nothing to transform the economy - bring in more cheap labour doesn't a transformation make.

elZorro
07-12-2016, 07:27 AM
I didn't realise that the main role of the PM was to stay popular?
You can do that by deferring the hard decisions till some later player - like superann.
Lambast Labour for the housing woes of the time then do nothing about them till they are much worse - look over there, move along nothing to see here.

He has done nothing to transform the economy - bring in more cheap labour doesn't a transformation make.

I agree dobby41, this now feels like a caretaker govt, ten years of treading water, rather than a progressive one.

I have to agree with Fran O'Sullivan too.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11761716&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Wednesday+7 +December+2016

winner69
07-12-2016, 07:49 AM
Eight (more) wasted years

https://croakingcassandra.com/

Michael a good bloke so have a read - EZ should like it

Quote -

There has been no “very big step change” in our economic performance. What is worse perhaps, there has been no serious attempt to bring about such a change

fungus pudding
07-12-2016, 08:17 AM
Eight (more) wasted years

https://croakingcassandra.com/

EZ should like it



Thanks for the warning - shan't bother to read it.

winner69
07-12-2016, 08:51 AM
Thanks for the warning - shan't bother to read it.

hey fungus pudding - you a bit disappointed that Gerry Brownlee not going for top job

fungus pudding
07-12-2016, 09:03 AM
hey fungus pudding - you a bit disappointed that Gerry Brownlee not going for top job

Not really. Are you?

Major von Tempsky
07-12-2016, 10:24 AM
Solid economic progress including substantial rises in the standard of living, are not made by dramatic "step changes".

They are made by the cumulative power of compound interest economic growth in a free market.

Socialist, interventionist "step changes" a la Venezuela, Cuba result in beggaring a country as the instigators understand nothing of competition, economics, enterprise, technological progress and think "they can pick winners" which any amount of history has shown they can't. The marketplace and consumers are the only ones who can pick winners.

dobby41
07-12-2016, 10:37 AM
Solid economic progress including substantial rises in the standard of living, are not made by dramatic "step changes".

Did we have some? I must have been asleep.
Our productvity growth has gone nowhere.

westerly
07-12-2016, 01:23 PM
Yes, some of the best years of our lives.

Now wait for the dissenting voices!

:cool:

The National Goverments of Holyoake through to Muldoon were genuine “ centre-right ” with their policies. Following National governments have moved more to the right with the Key lead present lot implementing Act policies while pretending to be more centre. ( less income tax, a determined reduction in Govt. services and more reliance on private benevolence to support the disadvantaged.)
The sale of State housing being a prime example. Also it has become more and more obvious that
there is a determined and organised assault on the oppostion, an example being the continual attacks on the personalities of Labour leaders, (Clarke, Goff, Shearer, Cunliffe, and now Little ) as an example the Press on Saturday devoted a full page to 2 articles on the short- comings of Little.
It is ok to have lobby groups representing farming, business etc. but any worker organistion must be strongly resisted as counter productive.
Surprisingly, I am not really a Labour supporter, but the pendulum has swung too far to the right and
hard won working conditions have been eroded. Pendulums however swing bothways.

Though the far right must be still be smiling. The workers even elected Trump in the US.!

westerly

fungus pudding
07-12-2016, 01:47 PM
Good to see Paula Bennett going for deputy to English. That combination would work well, especially at election time.

elZorro
07-12-2016, 06:18 PM
Eight (more) wasted years

https://croakingcassandra.com/

Michael a good bloke so have a read - EZ should like it

Quote -

There has been no “very big step change” in our economic performance. What is worse perhaps, there has been no serious attempt to bring about such a change

An interesting mix there, obviously a centre-right person. Some things I agreed on, some I didn't like the sound of. I don't mind the State getting involved in stuff sometimes, as they get the tax back on the work, so they can do it the cheapest. And, it employs people, trains them up. Those employees then keep city centres and regions vibrant, for example. Labour grew the economy when they were in, that graph on GDP showed it. National's graph looks pathetic by comparison.

Cassandra was also very wrong about iPredict - like John Key - VicLink decided to end the operation. Whatever they say, they were happy to end it, they always had choices. There's at least $20k flooding out of there every day at the moment. Whoever MBW is, with $26k odd, that money is still there. Could be the National Party's No.15 account. They probably had a few.

Sgt Pepper
07-12-2016, 08:47 PM
Good to see Paula Bennett going for deputy to English. That combination would work well, especially at election time.

FP
I concur. I and the Labour Party would be delighted to see her as deputy.

fungus pudding
07-12-2016, 11:03 PM
FP
I concur. I and the Labour Party would be delighted to see her as deputy.

Along with most NZers.

elZorro
07-12-2016, 11:04 PM
FP
I concur. I and the Labour Party would be delighted to see her as deputy.

Absolutely, Sgt Pepper. Some reminders.

fungus pudding
08-12-2016, 06:48 AM
Big loss to Labour party.

Their musical talent,, David Shearer, is leaving. They will need a new xocalist/guitarist.

elZorro
08-12-2016, 06:50 AM
Big loss to Labour party.

Their musical talent,, David Shearer, is leaving. They will need a new xocalist/guitarist.

David Shearer likely to head off on a new job for the UN in Sudan. This leaves the Mt Albert electorate having a by-election early next year. It's possible the event could become an early general election, it would depend on which main party is feeling the least organised.

I must admit, every time I drive past David Shearer's prominent but shabby local office on the corner in Mt Albert, I wonder why he doesn't get it painted - he doesn't seem to care. You wouldn't see a National MP with such poor branding. Yes, Labour are far more likely to look after the interests of the majority of the population and the vulnerable, they don't have to look like their MPs don't have two pennies to rub together.

Interesting to note that energetic List MP Jacinda Ardern (graduate of UOW, born in Hamilton) moved house into the Mt Albert electorate early this year. Well it worked for Michael Wood, Jacinda won't have to wait long if it all pans out. All the best.

fungus pudding
08-12-2016, 06:57 AM
David Shearer likely to head off on a new job for the UN in Sudan. This leaves the Mt Albert electorate having a by-election early next year. It's possible the event could become an early general election, it would depend on which main party is feeling the least organised.


It depends on no such thing. The govt. is the only entity that can call a general election and a by election is hardly a reason to call one.

elZorro
08-12-2016, 08:08 AM
It depends on no such thing. The govt. is the only entity that can call a general election and a by election is hardly a reason to call one.

FP, surely you'd want to see an early election, Bill English and Paula Bennett, the new dream team. Andrew Little even called for an early election on TV this morning. Bring it on. How quickly the landscape has changed.

Here's the interview where Paula "Hyperbowl" Bennett got her new middle name. She's so brainy!

http://tvnz.co.nz/q-and-a-news/climate-change-paris-agreement-signed-video-6464414

fungus pudding
08-12-2016, 08:22 AM
FP, surely you'd want to see an early election, Bill English and Paula Bennett, the new dream team. Andrew Little even called for an early election on TV this morning. Bring it on. How quickly the landscape has changed.

Here's the interview where Paula "Hyperbowl" Bennett got her new middle name. She's so brainy!

http://tvnz.co.nz/q-and-a-news/climate-change-paris-agreement-signed-video-6464414

A lot of people say hyperbowl. Beats me, but I don't think it's a lack of brain power with Paula Bennett. She's bright. I have heard someone reading the word who simply misread it without realising, but certainly knew the correct pronunciation. I have that problem with 'misled', which goes into my brain as 'missaled'. You should get onto your labour party mates; a high percentage of whom pronounce 'women' as 'woman', and yes, there are culprits in National too. There is one (non national) MP who refers to a misconception as a misnomer.
As far as bringing the election forward, I couldn't care less, except they are expensive so it's disappointing to get less than three years out of a parliamentary term. Far cheaper to hold a by-election.

artemis
08-12-2016, 10:50 AM
A lot of people say hyperbowl.....

Not everyone had the opportunity of a classical education. Or wanted it.

I listen to a lot of audio books and podcasts - it is not at all uncommon for words to be mispronounced, especially words not so commonly used in daily speech. And these recordings have producers as well as readers.

I think it quite sad if people crack up at mispronunciations, and especially use them as sticks to beat someone with.

elZorro
08-12-2016, 11:48 AM
Not everyone had the opportunity of a classical education. Or wanted it.

I listen to a lot of audio books and podcasts - it is not at all uncommon for words to be mispronounced, especially words not so commonly used in daily speech. And these recordings have producers as well as readers.

I think it quite sad if people crack up at mispronunciations, and especially use them as sticks to beat someone with.

Yes, that's correct, normally you'd let it go. But these are people who are on the world stage, who are supposed to represent NZ at important events like climate change signings. In the near future the Climate Change portfolio will not be dumped on someone who hasn't got much to do, or is just good at bluster. It might be the most important portfolio. In which case, to have any credibility, that cabinet minister needs to be sure on their words, their thinking, their strategy and their policies. Not good enough, just not good enough.

blackcap
08-12-2016, 11:58 AM
Yes, that's correct, normally you'd let it go. But these are people who are on the world stage, who are supposed to represent NZ at important events like climate change signings. In the near future the Climate Change portfolio will not be dumped on someone who hasn't got much to do, or is just good at bluster. It might be the most important portfolio. In which case, to have any credibility, that cabinet minister needs to be sure on their words, their thinking, their strategy and their policies. Not good enough, just not good enough.

Who cares ELZorro, we live in a new paradigm now. Even on the world stage... Trump says bigly, schlonged, he takes calls from Taiwan, he goes and visits Abe with Ivanka. He gives not a hoot and nor should we for that matter.

fungus pudding
08-12-2016, 12:15 PM
Who cares ELZorro, we live in a new paradigm now. Even on the world stage... Trump says bigly, schlonged, he takes calls from Taiwan, he goes and visits Abe with Ivanka. He gives not a hoot and nor should we for that matter.

Trump is hardly the standard we should use, not just for language, but for anything at all. He's a loose canon in every way. However you'll find bigly in most dictionaries, so he's not always wrong.

elZorro
08-12-2016, 10:25 PM
Trump is hardly the standard we should use, not just for language, but for anything at all. He's a loose canon in every way. However you'll find bigly in most dictionaries, so he's not always wrong.

Do you mean he only loosely follows the law?

Speaking of blowhards, even Cameron Slater is not going to support National now.. this is the start of the exodus of party funding and enthusiasm Bill is known for

http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2016/12/collins-withdraws-bully-bill-gets-pm/

The leadership race is over, but can Paula Bennett be the deputy please?

fungus pudding
09-12-2016, 07:40 AM
Do you mean he only loosely follows the law?

Speaking of blowhards, even Cameron Slater is not going to support National now.. this is the start of the exodus of party funding and enthusiasm Bill is known for

http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2016/12/collins-withdraws-bully-bill-gets-pm/

The leadership race is over, but can Paula Bennett be the deputy please?

Trump only follows laws that suit him.

As far as Slater goes, he strikes me as a thoroughly nasty individual, and I wouldn't bother reading anything he wrote. I'm surprised you do.