If National wins ...

[iceman]

It is a shame the Green Party is no such thing. If they were a typical European type green party, we would be looking at a strong National-Green Government after the elections, which would be a good thing if they weren't more focused on left wing ideology and anti business policies, albeit the latter is slowly improving under James Shaw.

[macduffy]

It is a shame the Green Party is no such thing. If they were a typical European type green party, we would be looking at a strong National-Green Government after the elections, which would be a good thing if they weren't more focused on left wing ideology and anti business policies, albeit the latter is slowly improving under James Shaw.

Still a lot of the old Alliance Party there?

[blackcap]

Still a lot of the old Alliance Party there?

Isn't Meteria Turei from the McGillicuddy Serious party? Instant no vote for me. But I like what iceman says. In Europe they do garner a good % of the vote but also make positive contributions via the coalitions they form and being in govt. Pity the NZ greens are too ideologically blinkered.

[iceman]

If we assume election results will be along current average polls, the media always talks about either National and its current partners or Labour-Green. But Winston may hold the balance of power, EXCEPT if the Green Party got serious about forming a potentially very strong majority 2 party Government with National.
Everyone knows Winston doesn't like the Greens so is unlikely do go into a coalition with Labour where Greens have much influence. They could neutralise Winston by negotiating with National !!

[BlackPeter]

Isn't Meteria Turei from the McGillicuddy Serious party? Instant no vote for me. But I like what iceman says. In Europe they do garner a good % of the vote but also make positive contributions via the coalitions they form and being in govt. Pity the NZ greens are too ideologically blinkered.

Must be a special day ... we agree on a political subject!

Yes, we definitely need in NZ a party which focusses on sustainability and cares for the environment. What we've currently got is just a party hiding their left wing agenda under green camouflage ...

[westerly]

In March 2013, Smith stormed into town to sort Auckland Council out, after months of sniping from afar. On television he said Auckland's average house price of $618,000 was not affordable to the average Auckland family, "beavering away, trying to save that deposit for a home to see the price go up by $50,000 or $60,000" over the past year.
He invoked the spirit of early colonists coming out to New Zealand "to own their little bit of their country." He was "absolutely determined to ensure that ordinary, hard-working Kiwi families are able to reach that dream of owning." Getting all lyrical, he said it was more than a house, it was "a home ... a place to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries."
Well done Nick
Amy now says $650,000 is now affordable and we will build lots more over the next 10 years.

westerly

[777]

777, you are simply repeating some sort of gossip that Crosby-Textor and the Nats are happy to promulgate. Why don't you have a short look back in history and see how Labour got on with almost all of their coalition partners, most of the time. More to the point, the country did go ahead under their leadership, for nine good years. So unless you have proof that it would be a shambles, it's nothing but rumour, with no basis in fact.

Are you seriously hoping that if enough people say/believe that kind of rubbish, they'll not look at the mess National is making, and actually be stupid enough to vote National in again?


elZ give me a break. I had never heard of Crosby-Textor until you you started boring me with it. Any knowledge I have now is from those posts and I repeat they are boring and irrelevant. So how the hell can I repeat what they say when you have not told me what they are saying. Of course I haven't got proof it will be a shambles, in hasn't happened yet. Keep up. It is my prediction that is all.

Nine great years under Labour???? That didn't happen and that is why they did not stay in power. Nobody except a few like you thought they did a good job. They got kicked out and they are still out and have not got a show on hell of returning in the near future.

National is far from perfect but Labour does not even register. They are a joke. It is a shame as voters do need an alternative. Greens are fruit loops, NZF is only Winston and the rest are a non event except for the Maori Party which has a reason to be there.

[elZorro]

elZ give me a break. I had never heard of Crosby-Textor until you you started boring me with it. Any knowledge I have now is from those posts and I repeat they are boring and irrelevant. So how the hell can I repeat what they say when you have not told me what they are saying. Of course I haven't got proof it will be a shambles, in hasn't happened yet. Keep up. It is my prediction that is all.

Nine great years under Labour???? That didn't happen and that is why they did not stay in power. Nobody except a few like you thought they did a good job. They got kicked out and they are still out and have not got a show on hell of returning in the near future.

National is far from perfect but Labour does not even register. They are a joke. It is a shame as voters do need an alternative. Greens are fruit loops, NZF is only Winston and the rest are a non event except for the Maori Party which has a reason to be there.


777, you have a very jaded and uninformed point of view. Could it best be summed up as "Vote National no matter what"?

National Party people have been seeding that line about the opposition coalition for decades, especially close to elections, you watch, they'll do it again. On TV, on Radio, on social media and in the papers. It's quite effective, on those who don't do a lot of thinking about it.

For example, please produce the data to back up your assertion that "there weren't nine great years under Labour" in comparison with the nine years we're having now, or the nine years before Labour's term. I guess it depends on what metric you use, but I put it to you that most of us could look very smart if we just borrowed money for nine years straight at 3% interest, and no-one pulled us up for it.

[iceman]

So EZ basically anybody that does not agree with your very narrow political beliefs, is "uninformed". How ridiculous and arrogant to say that to 777.
He´s absolutely rigtht about you banging on about that Aussie outfit you go on about again and again. The only time I ever see it mentioned is in your posts. But I suppose that just makes me ignorant and uninformed

[BlackPeter]

777, you have a very jaded and uninformed point of view. Could it best be summed up as "Vote National no matter what"?

National Party people have been seeding that line about the opposition coalition for decades, especially close to elections, you watch, they'll do it again. On TV, on Radio, on social media and in the papers. It's quite effective, on those who don't do a lot of thinking about it.

For example, please produce the data to back up your assertion that "there weren't nine great years under Labour" in comparison with the nine years we're having now, or the nine years before Labour's term. I guess it depends on what metric you use, but I put it to you that most of us could look very smart if we just borrowed money for nine years straight at 3% interest, and no-one pulled us up for it.

Well, there is actually a quite easy metrics to measure Labors "success": Kiwis were during Helen's reign queuing at the departure gates and couldn't leave the country fast enough for greener pastures. Labour still couldn't solve the housing crisis, but it was a bit easier given the net emigration of New Zealanders.

National made it worthwhile again for Kiwis to live in their own country ... and Kiwis are even coming back from abroad. They must do something right :p unless you want to depopulate our country.

I understand Labour is working hard on getting rid of their own population again ... apparently they are too stupid to know what's right for them and they vote for the wrong party!

[elZorro]

Well, there is actually a quite easy metrics to measure Labors "success": Kiwis were during Helen's reign queuing at the departure gates and couldn't leave the country fast enough for greener pastures. Labour still couldn't solve the housing crisis, but it was a bit easier given the net emigration of New Zealanders.

National made it worthwhile again for Kiwis to live in their own country ... and Kiwis are even coming back from abroad. They must do something right :p unless you want to depopulate our country.

I understand Labour is working hard on getting rid of their own population again ... apparently they are too stupid to know what's right for them and they vote for the wrong party!

From my point of view, the reason NZers came flooding back was often linked to the GFC. If they were going to be unemployed, they needed to be back home. Since Labour had been very careful on behalf of taxpayers to pay down old debt, National from 2008 were able to borrow heavily against Crown assets (the ones they didn't sell off) and use infrastructure spend on roads and fibre, for example, to employ those returning here. Whether that was the best use of the funds, or whether there could also have been a better long-term focus on R&D for SMEs for example, is my point.

I've banged on about it enough, there is no doubt that net immigration and Auckland house prices are strongly linked. It has to be the major factor. So that means the govt has the ability to stall and even drop Auckland house prices, with changes to immigration policy. The Nats will never admit that, and they won't act on it.

Comparing what seems like apples with apples to National voters, the KiwiBuild policy (Labour) promises 50,000 new net homes in Auckland over ten years (another 50,000 through the rest of the country). National's new copycat plan promises a net 26,000 homes in Auckland, but only 7,200 of them will be affordable homes under $650,000. And there's no guarantee that even those will all be sold to first-home buyers.

So there is a clear difference for voters - Labour will fix this problem, National will play around the edges and let the market keep in control of the increasing mess that is the Auckland housing situation.

[blackcap]

From my point of view, the reason NZers came flooding back was often linked to the GFC. If they were going to be unemployed, they needed to be back home. Since Labour had been very careful on behalf of taxpayers to pay down old debt, National from 2008 were able to borrow heavily against Crown assets (the ones they didn't sell off) and use infrastructure spend on roads and fibre, for example, to employ those returning here. Whether that was the best use of the funds, or whether there could also have been a better long-term focus on R&D for SMEs for example, is my point.

I've banged on about it enough, there is no doubt that net immigration and Auckland house prices are strongly linked. It has to be the major factor. So that means the govt has the ability to stall and even drop Auckland house prices, with changes to immigration policy. The Nats will never admit that, and they won't act on it.

Comparing what seems like apples with apples to National voters, the KiwiBuild policy (Labour) promises 50,000 new net homes in Auckland over ten years (another 50,000 through the rest of the country). National's new copycat plan promises a net 26,000 homes in Auckland, but only 7,200 of them will be affordable homes under $650,000. And there's no guarantee that even those will all be sold to first-home buyers.

So there is a clear difference for voters - Labour will fix this problem, National will play around the edges and let the market keep in control of the increasing mess that is the Auckland housing situation.

At the end of the day all the banging on with facts why Labout is better and how better we had it under Labour etc, will be for nought when National wins the election in September. You (and Labour) need to change the narrative ElZorro because it just is not working. YOu need your own Cosby Trextor by the looks of things if they are supposedly so effective... (I also not heard of them till you started talking about them and I really do not care about them to be frank) At this stage the perception amoung most NZers is that a Labour alliance is unholy. Even my partner commented the other day when seeing Little on t.v "Labour are a joke aren't they, there is no way I could vote for them". (she is not nromally politically engaging.

[dobby41]

At this stage the perception amoung most NZers is that a Labour alliance is unholy.

Do you have some figures to back that up?
Some people here are very glib at making opinion look like fact - but then, in todays world, maybe facts don't matter any more.

[blackcap]

Do you have some figures to back that up?
Some people here are very glib at making opinion look like fact - but then, in todays world, maybe facts don't matter any more.

Current polling would back up my statement as would the current market that says that a Labour alliance is a 1 in 5 shot to get into power. Other than that its most NZ'ers within my frame of reference. But it does not really matter. This is how I feel the current situation is and it is an opinion of mine which I am entitled to have as ElZorro is entitled to his delusions.

Indeed facts do not matter.. never have. Its the perception that counts.

[dobby41]

Current polling would back up my statement as would the current market that says that a Labour alliance is a 1 in 5 shot to get into power. Other than that its most NZ'ers within my frame of reference. But it does not really matter. This is how I feel the current situation is and it is an opinion of mine which I am entitled to have as ElZorro is entitled to his delusions.

Indeed facts do not matter.. never have. Its the perception that counts.

46% to 41% isn't it - landslide so far (especially since it used to be much wider).
Most people frame of reference is quite narrow and they suffer from confirmation bias.

And yes perception is all important - perception over substance has gotten National a long way so far.

[fungus pudding]

At the end of the day all the banging on with facts why Labout is better and how better we had it under Labour etc, will be for nought when National wins the election in September. You (and Labour) need to change the narrative ElZorro because it just is not working. YOu need your own Cosby Trextor by the looks of things if they are supposedly so effective... (I also not heard of them till you started talking about them and I really do not care about them to be frank) (she is not nromally politically engaging.

Exactly. eZ has been banging on about this Crosby outfit for ages. and wwithout that I would never have heard of tthem either. I gather they are An adverttising agency or PR firm - whichever title you prefer. To expect any political party not to use a PR agent is naive. I understand Labour have their own in-house publicist - one Matt McCarten. Good luck with that one.

[BlackPeter]

...
Most people frame of reference is quite narrow and they suffer from confirmation bias.

And yes perception is all important - perception over substance has gotten National a long way so far.

Isn't it funny that you can clearly see that "most people suffer from confirmation bias"? Just wondering, whether this would include yourself?

But hey - there is a biblical citation which springs to mind ... the problem is not new :p

[dobby41]

Isn't it funny that you can clearly see that "most people suffer from confirmation bias"? Just wondering, whether this would include yourself?

But hey - there is a biblical citation which springs to mind ... the problem is not new :p

Confirmation bias - no I don't suffer from it. At this stage I can see both sides.
Much of what people have said about Little and Labour I agree with - on both sides.
Labour did a lot of good and did leave the country in a good financial situation - setup well for National despite JK wanting MC to spend more.
National has been a steady hand - a bit boring and missed many opportunities I feel.
People are comping back to NZ because we are doing better than our peers - or they are doing worse (lets face it - Aussie has dropped in performance more than we have gone up).

I have always voted for who I think can do the best for NZ Inc rather than the best for me.
I am a property investor as well but agree with Labour on ring fencing losses - LTC (and LAQC before) allow the giant property pryamid scam to prosper to the detriment of the country as a whole.

I don't have a bias to confirm - odd as it may seem.
If I question one side it shouldn't be interpeted as supporting the other side.

[westerly]

Indeed facts do not matter.. never have. Its the perception that counts.

If you are ever looking for employment try Crosby-Trextor.

westerly

[Bjauck]

Confirmation bias - no I don't suffer from it. At this stage I can see both sides.
Much of what people have said about Little and Labour I agree with - on both sides.
Labour did a lot of good and did leave the country in a good financial situation - setup well for National despite JK wanting MC to spend more.
National has been a steady hand - a bit boring and missed many opportunities I feel.
People are comping back to NZ because we are doing better than our peers - or they are doing worse (lets face it - Aussie has dropped in performance more than we have gone up).

I have always voted for who I think can do the best for NZ Inc rather than the best for me.
I am a property investor as well but agree with Labour on ring fencing losses - LTC (and LAQC before) allow the giant property pryamid scam to prosper to the detriment of the country as a whole.

I don't have a bias to confirm - odd as it may seem.
If I question one side it shouldn't be interpeted as supporting the other side. I think that negative gearing could perhaps continue for new residential house development. However I agree with much of what you have said. Nevertheless, it was a previous Labour government that helped introduce a big reason for encouraging investment into real estate and away from financial and share investing.

Before 1989, income that was put into a private pension or insurances schemes was not taxed, and neither was the income earned in the schemes. After 1989 owner-occupied and investor housing had greater tax advantages.

Labour also introduced the Reserve Bank Act to control inflation. This saw a structural increase in real estate prices as interest rates dropped. The resultant capital gains were untaxed as NZ did have a specific CGT. Lower interest rates on savings and untaxed capital gains on housing encouraged the shift of investment into real estate.

Labour also introduced the RMA which had the effect of reducing residential construction and hence increasing the prices of already developed land.

So many of the contributing factors behind NZ's current unaffordable housing emanated from a Labour Government.

1989 was year zero for Generation Rent
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/04/19/19623/housing-1989-generation-rent

[elZorro]

Having read that article, yes that's true, some of the changes were set up by Labour when they were still in their strong neo-liberal phase, but they were replaced in office by National soon after, and the changes were locked in. National impeded or stopped talk of an early Kiwisaver plan, and even now they are not encouraging investment in new niche startups with the energy that is required.

Anyone investing in property for their savings plan (and I do that a bit, although not for rental purposes) should be acutely aware that they are invested in what is a fairly unproductive asset base. If that's their whole investment, it's not helping wider NZ by much, this is not how we can get back up the OECD ladder. It's safer, but also a bit of a tax ripoff of the system.

When I look at the value tied up in one affordable house, it's more than enough to start six new businesses.

[dobby41]

1989!
In the 27 years that followed National was in power for how long?
And they did nothing to 'fix' these perceived 'problems'?
If these are indeed the issues and National has done nothing to fix them then surely that shows a degree of ineptitude?

[Bjauck]

1989!
In the 27 years that followed National was in power for how long?
And they did nothing to 'fix' these perceived 'problems'?
If these are indeed the issues and National has done nothing to fix them then surely that shows a degree of ineptitude? As the article pointed out there was consensus between Nat and Lab at the time. Both National are Labour are responsible for the current affordable housing crisis. Opposition talk is fine, but Just who will make the difficult decisions in government, when balancing vested interests against long-term decision making, is the question.

[Bjauck]

Having read that article, yes that's true, some of the changes were set up by Labour when they were still in their strong neo-liberal phase, but they were replaced in office by National soon after, and the changes were locked in. National impeded or stopped talk of an early Kiwisaver plan, and even now they are not encouraging investment in new niche startups with the energy that is required..... Kiwsaver was a small start with its limited annual credit (even that was reduced by National). However Kiwisaver is a bit toothless without reversing the 1989 changes to the taxation of retirement savings.

[elZorro]

As the article pointed out there was consensus between Nat and Lab at the time. Both National are Labour are responsible for the current affordable housing crisis. Opposition talk is fine, but Just who will make the difficult decisions in government, when balancing vested interests against long-term decision making, is the question.

Labour will.

http://www.labour.org.nz/nationals_housing_announcement?utm_campaign=170518 _housing&utm_medium=email&utm_source=nzlabour

John Armstrong not impressed with National's housing policy either.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/opinion-governments-handling-housing-crisis-lurches-chaotic-shambolic

Lessons from National's conference last weekend.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/auckland/15-05-2017/national-is-cloning-labours-identity-and-other-lessons-from-its-weekend-conference/

[elZorro]

Shamubeel Eaqub had an article in the SST over the weekend, on housing affordability. Good proven data, well worth a read.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/92768343/shamubeel-eaqub-the-grim-reality-of-nzs-housing-unaffordability-is-hidden?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+22+M ay+2017

[winner69]

Even those 'selected' to stand in an electorate are packing a sad

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/92868642/labour-candidate-drops-out-no-future-as-white-middle-class-male


Not a real Labour man anywsy so no loss eh EZ

[BlackPeter]

Even those 'selected' to stand in an electorate are packing a sad

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/92868642/labour-candidate-drops-out-no-future-as-white-middle-class-male


Not a real Labour man anywsy so no loss eh EZ

I assume you want to say no real Labour person? "Labour man" sounds so sexist ... and absolutely politically incorrect - I guess how can we exclude all the other sexes ;)?

While I agree that it is good for a party (and for parliament and any other public organisation) if they broadly represent the population in terms of social upbringing, sex, race, secual orientation and whatever the differentiators are, getting there can be hard if you start to discriminate on race, colour, sex, sexual orientation just to fill the top seats in a representative way instead of picking the best people for the job.

If somebody who would be great doing the job but happens to be white and male feels that they have no future in Labour, than maybe there is something Labour needs to change if they ever want to get back into power again. Racism and sexism seems to flourish in this party.

[macduffy]

So much for the myth of party solidarity, eh?

;)

[fungus pudding]

I assume you want to say no real Labour person? "Labour man" sounds so sexist ... and absolutely politically incorrect - I guess how can we exclude all the other sexes ;)?

While I agree that it is good for a party (and for parliament and any other public organisation) if they broadly represent the population in terms of social upbringing, sex, race, secual orientation and whatever the differentiators are, getting there can be hard if you start to discriminate on race, colour, sex, sexual orientation just to fill the top seats in a representative way instead of picking the best people for the job.

If somebody who would be great doing the job but happens to be white and male feels that they have no future in Labour, than maybe there is something Labour needs to change if they ever want to get back into power again. Racism and sexism seems to flourish in this party.

How about a balance on religious grounds as well to get Labour truly representative.? They could go a third Christian, a third Muslim and a third atheist. Whadda y' reckin eZ?

[winner69]

How about a balance on religious grounds as well to get Labour truly representative.? They could go a third Christian, a third Muslim and a third atheist. Whadda y' reckin eZ?

To be really representative a certain %age should be homeless

[elZorro]

To be really representative a certain %age should be homeless

I'm not sure what the issue is here. Within reason, Labour want their MPs to look like a cross-section of NZers. They don't specify that they want that across the intellectual or wealth spectrum as well.

I don't know Rohan Lord, but if he's a first-time candidate for Labour, trying out in a strongly blue seat, he should never have expected to get a high list ranking the first time around. One of the local electorate's Labour candidate tried out in a blue seat in 2014, earned his stripes and is now the candidate in a remotely winnable seat, plus although he's a white middle aged male with a family, he's high on the list. He could conceivably get in on Labour's list. He has also promised to have a go at the same seat in the next election. So that's what any political party is looking for, a real effort, and yes, that'll cost in time and possible other income.

Most parties know how to spot tyre kickers, it's not a perfect process but it's democratic.

[fungus pudding]

I'm not sure what the issue is here. Within reason, Labour want their MPs to look like a cross-section of NZers. They don't specify that they want that across the intellectual or wealth spectrum as well.



But eZ, there is no need to specify those details. It's quite obvious that a true cross section of the population will cover different races and religions, the homeless etc, along with a smattering of dwarves. You can't be truly representative on just a few cherry picked criteria.

[artemis]

But eZ, there is no need to specify those details. It's quite obvious that a true cross section of the population will cover different races and religions, the homeless etc, along with a smattering of dwarves. You can't be truly representative on just a few cherry picked criteria.

Might be better to choose candidates based on the degree of inequality, since that is a major issue for Labour. Although, as pointed out in relation to Oxfam's recent report, among the poorest in the world are Harvard Law students with massive student loans.

[BlackPeter]

I'm not sure what the issue is here. Within reason, Labour want their MPs to look like a cross-section of NZers. They don't specify that they want that across the intellectual or wealth spectrum as well.

I don't know Rohan Lord, but if he's a first-time candidate for Labour, trying out in a strongly blue seat, he should never have expected to get a high list ranking the first time around. One of the local electorate's Labour candidate tried out in a blue seat in 2014, earned his stripes and is now the candidate in a remotely winnable seat, plus although he's a white middle aged male with a family, he's high on the list. He could conceivably get in on Labour's list. He has also promised to have a go at the same seat in the next election. So that's what any political party is looking for, a real effort, and yes, that'll cost in time and possible other income.

Most parties know how to spot tyre kickers, it's not a perfect process but it's democratic.

I think we all understand the hard yards some people need to go to be successful in politics. The question is just - why is it easier for females and people with a darker skin to get a good place on the Labour list? For some reason it looks like a less stringent rule set applies to them.

The issue is that the Labour party is discriminating against capable white males. Nothing more and nothing less.

[dobby41]

I think we all understand the hard yards some people need to go to be successful in politics. The question is just - why is it easier for females and people with a darker skin to get a good place on the Labour list? For some reason it looks like a less stringent rule set applies to them.

The issue is that the Labour party is discriminating against capable white males. Nothing more and nothing less.

The issue is that this is one disaffected persons opinion.
Who's to say (apart from Rohan) that he is more capable than those higher on the list - maybe they have already done harder yards?

[BlackPeter]

Hmm ... did you had a look at the list at all? Just remind me of the hard yards Kiri Allan (place 20) or Willie Jackson (place 21), Ginny Andersen (place 27) or Marja Lubeck (place 31) have done for Labour? Sure - Willie Jackson belongs to the left wing red socks ... and used to play formerly for the losing Alliance, but the others? How do they deserve that much higher places on the list unless it is all about race or sex? And hey, there are plenty others - just have a look at the list:

http://www.labour.org.nz/list

[elZorro]

Hmm ... did you had a look at the list at all? Just remind me of the hard yards Kiri Allan (place 20) or Willie Jackson (place 21), Ginny Andersen (place 27) or Marja Lubeck (place 31) have done for Labour? Sure - Willie Jackson belongs to the left wing red socks ... and used to play formerly for the losing Alliance, but the others? How do they deserve that much higher places on the list unless it is all about race or sex? And hey, there are plenty others - just have a look at the list:

http://www.labour.org.nz/list

It's also related to gathering votes and networking/liaising with those making the list decisions, being involved in regional jobs for the Labour Party over a few years, not just jumping into an electorate candidacy. Has the candidate proven they can work with a wide range of people? Very important for the actual job of being an MP.

The general public might not have heard of them, but those high up the list will have been working on that position for a few years.

[fungus pudding]

It's also related to gathering votes and networking/liaising with those making the list decisions, being involved in regional jobs for the Labour Party over a few years, not just jumping into an electorate candidacy. Has the candidate proven they can work with a wide range of people? Very important for the actual job of being an MP.

The general public might not have heard of them, but those high up the list will have been working on that position for a few years.

What a brilliant selection method. Have the Labour big-wigs ever considered selecting those most suitable as an MP? No? Thought not.

[elZorro]

What a brilliant selection method. Have the Labour big-wigs ever considered selecting those most suitable as an MP? No? Thought not.

Should they be able to just buy their way in, like Trump (and John Key) did? I think you've taken leave of your senses, FP.

[fungus pudding]

Should they be able to just buy their way in, like Trump (and John Key) did? I think you've taken leave of your senses, FP.

I don't think Key or Trump bought their way in. My suggestion was that Labour appoint on merit as National does.

[westerly]

"The 9th floor: Jim Bolger says neoliberalism has failed NZ and it's time to give unions the power back "
Not surprising I suppose there has been no comment from the right on the former Prime Minister' s
opinions.

There again the Press editorial this morning was somewhat sympathetic to Labour on the List discussion.

National seems to be following Labour candidate selections withe more than a nod to diversity. When their List is finally made public sometime in September any candidate upset by their position will be have been well and truly silenced by the party whips.

Paula will be encouraging tipping for good service but I am not sure many MP s qualify.

westerly

[iceman]

Should they be able to just buy their way in, like Trump (and John Key) did? I think you've taken leave of your senses, FP.

You said yourself EZ that part of the criteria was ability to gather votes. Did John Key not meet that criteria pretty well ? How do Willy Jackson and Greg O´Connor for example meet the criteria you refer to as being foremost in Labour big wigs minds ?

[fungus pudding]

You said yourself EZ that part of the criteria was ability to gather votes. Did John Key not meet that criteria pretty well ? How do Willy Jackson and Greg O´Connor for example meet the criteria you refer to as being foremost in Labour big wigs minds ?

It would not be representative to have only intelligemt MPs. I think they are included to cover the IQ range.

[winner69]

Budget says country's finances are in great shape.

Increased accommodation allowances should help 'stretched' investor landlords a bit .....and if course the tenants who are a bit 'stretched' as well

[winner69]

After this budget suppose odds on National wining election just got tighter - and Labour / Green now at even longer odds

[fungus pudding]

After this budget suppose odds on National wining election just got tighter - and Labour / Green now at even longer odds

Settle down. You'll upset eZ.

[elZorro]

I'm yet to have a good look at the budget, FP. But increasing the housing supplement will surely end up largely in the hands of landlords, with rents more likely to be paid when due. Many other lolly-scramble parts of the budget were largely catch-up funding. But if it's an extra $2bill or so, there goes the surplus, and they haven't even started repaying any of their new borrowings yet. They'll have to hope there isn't another GFC around the corner.

Very little of the budget is about turning the economy around.

[Hoop]

The way to win a war is to occupy the enemy"s ground.... A tinge of red + blue = purple?

[elZorro]

The way to win a war is to occupy the enemy"s ground.... A tinge of red + blue = purple?

I think Grant Robertson discussed it well on TV1 this morning, no KiwiBuild, much lower tax refund for the lowest paid, it's still a trickle-down philosophy from National. And $1mill towards climate change work. That might be the most damning part of the whole budget. What can you do with $1mill?

[dobby41]

I'm not sure I should complain that National are handing out Labour budgets - at least I get some of what I want.
I do wonder what National would do if they didn't have any opposition to work against.
The budget is a bit ho hum - nothing to transform the country from producing a few low value commodities and a bit of tourism.

[fungus pudding]

I think Grant Robertson discussed it well on TV1 this morning, no KiwiBuild, much lower tax refund for the lowest paid, it's still a trickle-down philosophy from National. And $1mill towards climate change work. That might be the most damning part of the whole budget. What can you do with $1mill?

Surely you can find a bit more to moan about than that eZ. Don't disappoint us.

[craic]

[QUOTE=dobby41;667613]I'm not sure I should complain that National are handing out Labour budgets - at least I get some of what I want.
I do wonder what National would do if they didn't have any opposition to work against.
What opposition? Didn't you notice that Labours Little big man when he rose to angrily respond to the Minister, yesterday, had to have a pad in his had to read his angry bit from. If that is the standard, then there are several who will tear him to bits - Winston Peters for a start.

[elZorro]

Surely you can find a bit more to moan about than that eZ. Don't disappoint us.

It's just another budget devoid of any big ideas to help transform NZ, as others have said here, and in the media. Another opportunity wasted. They added $1mill to climate change funding, but if the minister is still Paula '[Hyperbowl' Bennett, I'm not sure there is any point until Labour/Greens are in.

If they did take climate change seriously, they'd not be canning the electrified trains, for one. Nowadays when you drive through Hamilton outskirts you see road works everywhere, familiar roads disappearing to be replaced with massive on/off ramps, bridges seemingly to nowhere. Newsflash, Hamilton's not that much bigger than it was, the roads generally aren't clogged, what's the rush to spend billions here, when there are a lot of other govt projects and possible initiatives that could generate stronger income and more jobs for people?

There must be a very powerful road construction lobby, and big businesses are getting plenty of govt funds as well. And these grants and projects aren't in the line of $20 more a week.

[iceman]

This budget confirms National as the middle of the road and dominant mainstream party in NZ, supported by nearly 1 in 2 voters. Even EZ can´t find anything wrong except climate change policies. Great.

Oh, and complaining about infrastructure projects in Hamilton that apparently is not growing. Well, I moved from Hamilton 15 odd years ago EZ. I lived in Chedworth and had a farm next door. I was there 3 weeks ago and drove around all the new suburbs and areas in the north and northeast of the city. My ex wife and daughters still live in the same house in Chedworth and are now basically in town. How can you credibly state that Hamilton is not bigger than it was ? The Express Way is great for Waikato, BOP and Auckland

[iceman]

It was no surprise that NZ First supported National's tax adjustments (cuts) giving all workers a few extra dollars in their take home pay. But it was surprising to see the Greens vote for it but Labour voting against tax relief for lower and middle income people. Is it possible that the Greens are trying to target the very few voters Labour has left and possibly signal that they can work with National post election, after the MOU with Labour expires !!
Watch out Labour and Winston !!

[fungus pudding]

It was no surprise that NZ First supported National's tax adjustments (cuts) giving all workers a few extra dollars in their take home pay. But it was surprising to see the Greens vote for it but Labour voting against tax relief for lower and middle income people. Is it possible that the Greens are trying to target the very few voters Labour has left and possibly signal that they can work with National post election, after the MOU with Labour expires !!
Watch out Labour and Winston !!

There should be no reason a Green party could not coalesce with National, but the current bunch have too many members with nutty economic views. If they stuck strictly to their Kermit policies they could become a useful partner to any leading party.

[winner69]

There should be no reason a Green party could not coalesce with National, but the current bunch have too many members with nutty economic views. If they stuck strictly to their Kermit policies they could become a useful partner to any leading party.

Could happen

Shaw is slowing growing on me but he lacks real charisma to make a difference in the polls .....now if the Greens had a really charismatic leader like Trudeau or that Dutch guy whose name I cant recall just now then things would get interesting

Alas not this time around

[fungus pudding]

Could happen

Shaw is slowing growing on me but he lacks real charisma to make a difference in the polls .....now if the Greens had a really charismatic leader like Trudeau then things would get interesting

100% right with that post. Shaw is bright but will never be a leader.

[westerly]

"On the other side of the House, Act Party leader David Seymour immediately labelled the Working For Families increases as "communism by stealth" - echoing former Prime Minister John Key's description of the policy when Labour first introduced it in 2004."

Shows how desperate for power National is; Working for Families has now become mainstream policy,
The unions will be back in favour soon.

westerly

[fungus pudding]

"On the other side of the House, Act Party leader David Seymour immediately labelled the Working For Families increases as "communism by stealth" - echoing former Prime Minister John Key's description of the policy when Labour first introduced it in 2004."

Shows how desperate for power National is; Working for Families has now become mainstream policy,
The unions will be back in favour soon.

westerly

I join with you in your concerns Westerly, but don't worry too much, cos they won't.

[elZorro]

Could happen

Shaw is slowing growing on me but he lacks real charisma to make a difference in the polls .....now if the Greens had a really charismatic leader like Trudeau or that Dutch guy whose name I cant recall just now then things would get interesting

Alas not this time around

Jessie Klaver (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/06/the-jessiah-dutch-progressive-populist-jesse-klaver)was it, W69?

Does Shaw have to be charismatic as well as right most of the time?

[westerly]

I join with you in your concerns Westerly, but don't worry too much, cos they won't.

Ah but I am. Jeremy Corbin has cut Teresa's lead to just 5 points

westerly

[winner69]

Jessie Klaver (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/06/the-jessiah-dutch-progressive-populist-jesse-klaver)was it, W69?

Does Shaw have to be charismatic as well as right most of the time?

Whether it's charisma or not they need something that resonates with the populus.

Even though things on the surface look pretty good I do believe there is an ever increasing number of discontented voters waiting for somebody to come along and sweep then up .....but alas that person doesn't exist among the leaders of our current opposition party

[fungus pudding]

Ah but I am. Jeremy Corbin has cut Teresa's lead to just 5 points

westerly
What on earth is the relevance of that?

[elZorro]

This budget confirms National as the middle of the road and dominant mainstream party in NZ, supported by nearly 1 in 2 voters. Even EZ can´t find anything wrong except climate change policies. Great.

Oh, and complaining about infrastructure projects in Hamilton that apparently is not growing. Well, I moved from Hamilton 15 odd years ago EZ. I lived in Chedworth and had a farm next door. I was there 3 weeks ago and drove around all the new suburbs and areas in the north and northeast of the city. My ex wife and daughters still live in the same house in Chedworth and are now basically in town. How can you credibly state that Hamilton is not bigger than it was ? The Express Way is great for Waikato, BOP and Auckland

But between 2006 and 2013 Hamilton grew by an average population increase of just 2,000 a year, or 1.4% or so.

http://www.hamilton.govt.nz/our-council/council-publications/monitoringandstatistics/Documents/2013%20Census%20Quick%20Stats%20about%20a%20place% 20Hamilton%20City.%20May%202014.PDF

That growth is quite a bit smaller than Auckland's increase in numbers, with most of the 70,000 net immigrants turning up there.
As for the new suburbs in Flagstaff etc, yes they are there all right, but it takes 800x 700m2 sections and houses at 2.5 people each to accommodate the small annual net increase in Hamilton.

I'm all for well paid jobs, meaningful employment. I'm not so sure on the idea of population growth just for the sake of it. There are probably already twice as many humans on the planet than is sustainable, even in the short-medium term. I see new motorways as a really big indicator of unhindered population growth, and I don't think that's something politicians should be encouraging.

[winner69]

What on earth is the relevance of that?

......for some hoping there will be a wave of support for Labourlike parties to topple encumbent governing parties.

[GTM 3442]

What on earth is the relevance of that?

It gives people a shot of hope or fear (delete one) that a tidal wave of resurgent socialism is about to arise and sweep across the world, carrying all before it to the sunny uplands of permanent egalitarian prosperity.

[fungus pudding]

It gives people a shot of hope or fear (delete one) that a tidal wave of resurgent socialism is about to arise and sweep across the world, carrying all before it to the sunny uplands of permanent egalitarian prosperity.

Ah yes. Egalitarain bliss. Since it's not possible to make everyone rich, best to make everyone poor.

[craic]

Ah Yes! Divide the total cash and assets of the NZ population equally between the population. What would happen the next day? The speed with which the new rich would get poor and the new poor would get rich would leave the Americas Cup for dead as an example of power and corruption hiding behind a veil of sportsmanship.

[fungus pudding]

Ah Yes! Divide the total cash and assets of the NZ population equally between the population. What would happen the next day? The speed with which the new rich would get poor and the new poor would get rich would leave the Americas Cup for dead as an example of power and corruption hiding behind a veil of sportsmanship.

The speed with the new rich would become poor and the new poor would become rich would have nothing to do with power or corruption. Initiative and enterprise, planning, risk taking, and hard work will do the trick.

[craic]

Yes, that would apply to the "new Poor" - the hardworking individuals who worked hard to get things and have now lost them. The "New rich would behave very like lotto winners - so unaccustomed to their new status that they would, in many cases, simply blow everything in their excitement. The edge of the forest would be full of wolves, waiting for dusk and they opportunity to prey on the foolish.

The speed with the new rich would become poor and the new poor would become rich would have nothing to do with power or corruption. Initiative and enterprise, planning, risk taking, and hard work will do the trick.

[elZorro]

The speed with the new rich would become poor and the new poor would become rich would have nothing to do with power or corruption. Initiative and enterprise, planning, risk taking, and hard work will do the trick.

Quite right, FP? Although I'm waiting for the penny to drop that your beloved National Party has meddled with the housing market by increasing those rent subsidies. In Auckland and other centres at the moment, potential renters are paying landlords over the asking price for accommodation, and the new subsidies will only allow more of that to occur. In other words, the landlords will get most of that cash. They'll then offset it against other income, so they don't need to pay tax on it. The needs of the few outweigh the needs of the many.

Many a time you have proffered a similar argument about Labour meddling in the market, what is your response sir? Especially considering National also set things up for landlords, by allowing high net migration to continue for years.

[craic]

The only ones set up are Labour. They are going to have to promise more than they can afford to come in sooner than they can afford and at the same time convince Winnie and the Greens that they are really a political party and not a colony of lemmings surrounded on all sides by high cliffs that the can jump off.

[elZorro]

The only ones set up are Labour. They are going to have to promise more than they can afford to come in sooner than they can afford and at the same time convince Winnie and the Greens that they are really a political party and not a colony of lemmings surrounded on all sides by high cliffs that the can jump off.

Not a substantive argument there, Craic. Labour have plenty of financial handling credibility, just look at the last nine years they had in office.

[jmsnz]

Not a substantive argument there, Craig. Labour have plenty of financial handling credibility, just look at the last nine years they had in office.


But that is the problem, most of the voting population can't actually remember being governed by the Labour Party, it has been so long ago. I appreciate that for all the keen political followers your points are relevant and important but unfortunately it is the masses that vote, and for them its not the relevant what happened a decade ago.

Just one example, I was horrified when my eldest, who will have the the opportunity to vote for the first time this year, recently asked me, 'so what is wrong with Winston'. At first I thought he was taking the p.... but I realised that he was actually serious, he doesn't know the history and like most of his generation isn't that interested.

[elZorro]

But that is the problem, most of the voting population can't actually remember being governed by the Labour Party, it has been so long ago. I appreciate that for all the keen political followers your points are relevant and important but unfortunately it is the masses that vote, and for them its not the relevant what happened a decade ago.

Just one example, I was horrified when my eldest, who will have the the opportunity to vote for the first time this year, recently asked me, 'so what is wrong with Winston'. At first I thought he was taking the p.... but I realised that he was actually serious, he doesn't know the history and like most of his generation isn't that interested.

Your eldest might be more clued up than you think. Winston ran a very clever campaign to take out Northland. He's sharp, not bad with a hammer either. NZ First's policies generally look like Labour policies, so I have to agree with most of them. I had a very clever uni student working with us in 2014, he was helping out NZ First in the local electorate. In the interests of information, you could show your eldest this chart:

[fungus pudding]

Quite right, FP? Although I'm waiting for the penny to drop that your beloved National Party has meddled with the housing market by increasing those rent subsidies. In Auckland and other centres at the moment, potential renters are paying landlords over the asking price for accommodation, and the new subsidies will only allow more of that to occur. In other words, the landlords will get most of that cash. They'll then offset it against other income, so they don't need to pay tax on it. The needs of the few outweigh the needs of the many.

Many a time you have proffered a similar argument about Labour meddling in the market, what is your response sir? Especially considering National also set things up for landlords, by allowing high net migration to continue for years.

You seem to have your wires crossed eZ. National are not my beloved party - never have been, although I've often voted for them. As previously explained, I use my vote in the most effective way to keep out the party or parties that will do most harm. This year therefore I will again vote National. That does not make them my beloved party. Of course, subsidies never help the direct recipient - no argument there. To have a noticeable effect on rents, National should immediately stop paying any rental subsidies, but you and I know no govt. will ever do that in NZ. Yes, they keep on holding up rents to the benefit of landlords, just as Labour have done when in power.

[GTM 3442]

Ah Yes! Divide the total cash and assets of the NZ population equally between the population. What would happen the next day? The speed with which the new rich would get poor and the new poor would get rich would leave the Americas Cup for dead as an example of power and corruption hiding behind a veil of sportsmanship.

Takes all sorts, no need for power and corruption, just the chance of something for nothing.

Anyone old enough to remember the lunacy which accompanied the giveaways of power company shares a couple of decades or so back?

Some people thought it was great to sell 'em to get a new fridge. My mother took the opportunity to learn about the fixed interest market.

Mind you, I wouldn't be surprised to see a chunk of inherited wealth finding a new home.

[dobby41]

But that is the problem, most of the voting population can't actually remember being governed by the Labour Party, it has been so long ago. I appreciate that for all the keen political followers your points are relevant and important but unfortunately it is the masses that vote, and for them its not the relevant what happened a decade ago.

Of course the same thing can be said of the situation 9 years ago - Labour had been in power 9 yrs etc.
It is at this stage that the current government has to stop blaming the previous crowd (of 9yrs + ago) for any ill in the country and start doing stuff.
National has been steady but NZ hasn't really moved ahead.
We still sell commodities and now have much more debt.

[fungus pudding]

Of course the same thing can be said of the situation 9 years ago - Labour had been in power 9 yrs etc.
It is at this stage that the current government has to stop blaming the previous crowd (of 9yrs + ago) for any ill in the country and start doing stuff.
National has been steady but NZ hasn't really moved ahead.
We still sell commodities and now have much more debt.

No govt. could have got through the last 9 years without either increasing debt, or causing widespread hardship. National generally have been good managers of the economy. All but eZ would agree.

[elZorro]

No govt. could have got through the last 9 years without either increasing debt, or causing widespread hardship. National generally have been good managers of the economy. All but eZ would agree.

Of course I can't agree with that. They should have kept up with the Cullen Fund investments especially at the end of the GFC, they shouldn't have crippled future earnings from a portion of the state assets sold off cheaply, they have squandered R&D funding on big business, they've kept immigration high to hide other issues and in the process wrecked affordable housing in NZ. They've ignored climate change and water issues, they've kept in place or reinforced tax dodging systems, and as Dobby41 so correctly pointed out, we are still commodity exporters by and large.

Can you name one big picture thing this National Govt has done in nine years? No? That's because they haven't done any of that, they are bereft of competent leaders.

[craic]

For a Labour party stalwart to suggest that National are bereft of competent leaders most be the joke of the century. When their current unfortunate is capable of saying his own name without reading it off a pad, then they will be moving in the right direction.

[dobby41]

For a Labour party stalwart to suggest that National are bereft of competent leaders most be the joke of the century. When their current unfortunate is capable of saying his own name without reading it off a pad, then they will be moving in the right direction.

But do you have an answer to the question of what big picture thing National have done?

[fungus pudding]

Can you name one big picture thing this National Govt has done in nine years?

Yes. They've kept Labour out.

[dobby41]

Yes. They've kept Labour out.

That is the best you can do?
You disappoint me but it is all I can see that they have done.

[fungus pudding]

That is the best you can do?
You disappoint me but it is all I can see that they have done.

What more could you possibly want. They're doing God's work.

[westerly]

What more could you possibly want. They're doing God's work.

That is a worry. Whose god are they working for?

westerly

[fungus pudding]

That is a worry. Whose god are they working for?

westerly

There are several thousand gods. I rate them all equally.

http://www.godchecker.com/pantheon/index.php?search

[Sgt Pepper]

What more could you possibly want. They're doing God's work.

National are a highly principled party. They are Marxist. .Groucho Marxist, " I've got principles, and if you don't like those, well I've got others"

[craic]

I think Scotland had a Saint Andrew once but the Labour Party are a little bit short on that scale - or maybe they think martyrdom might be the way to go? My particular God, Amun Ra, boots me in the bollocks every time I take his name in vain. But sometimes he wins a race and we are friends again. The current bottle was found in the shed and I thought it was Caustic Soda but it didn't have the usual skull and crossbones in thick black all over it so some careful testing confirmed that it was Bundaberg and it's very nice. My wife settled for Stables Pinot Gris. Heartbeat and a couple of Last of the Summer Wine will finish the night.

[RGR367]

But do you have an answer to the question of what big picture thing National have done?

Would a positive immigration at last fits the big picture you're trying to paint?

[GTM 3442]

What would Labour's ratings be if they had a leader with the "charisma" of a Kirk or a Lange?

Mind you, how would be National be going if they had a leader with a spot of the same?

[dobby41]

Would a positive immigration at last fits the big picture you're trying to paint?

Which National policy achieved that?
I would agree, though, that it seems to have transformed the country - Auckland anyway.
I'm not particularly enamoured with the transformation though.

[BlackPeter]

Which National policy achieved that?
I would agree, though, that it seems to have transformed the country - Auckland anyway.
I'm not particularly emamoured with the transformation though.

Well, whatever policy it was - under National Kiwis are streaming back into the country (adding to the immigration pressure, while under aunt Helen Kiwis queued up at the departure gates).

People clearly voted with their feet against Labour's disastrous policies (leading into the GFC) and for Nationals sensible recovery efforts when they took control. Sure - Kiwis are coming back under National because most other countries did worse in the past GFC recovery. They now see a future here in New Zealand. I fail to see how anybody can hold this against a National government.

EZ and Dobbie - do you really want to reintroduce a catastrophic government driving Kiwis again out of their home country? Under Labour they saw no future on these shores. Do you really want to go back to this situation? Sure - it would drive property prices down and increase the number of unemployed and beneficiaries (all core Labour policies), but come on guys - I am sure you can do better than that. Just support a sensible liberal government under ACT and National ... you know, you want to do whats best for this country ...:p!

[RGR367]

Which National policy achieved that?
..............

Maybe not under a specific policy but it's their gut feel then about the future because somehow they can feel it in their blood :p Though not particularly enamoured, you're seeing or experiencing that effect now.

[dobby41]

EZ and Dobbie - do you really want to reintroduce a catastrophic government driving Kiwis again out of their home country? Under Labour they saw no future on these shores. Do you really want to go back to this situation? Sure - it would drive property prices down and increase the number of unemployed and beneficiaries (all core Labour policies), but come on guys - I am sure you can do better than that. Just support a sensible liberal government under ACT and National ... you know, you want to do whats best for this country ...

Do you honestly believe that drivel?
There could be no other reason for our immigration, like maybe Australia suffering a down turn?

I think it is great that National have supplied a Labour budget.
I would like to see National have a few ideas on how to transform the economy away from low value commodities.
We'd need a bit of leadership for that.

[BlackPeter]

Do you honestly believe that drivel?


I suppose you talk about your posts?

Sad if that's all the Left has to offer ...

[dobby41]

I suppose you talk about your posts?

Sad if that's all the Left has to offer ...

I am curious - do you think National has done the best they can or could (should) do more for the country?
Do you think what we have now is the best we will/ can have?

[fungus pudding]

I am curious - do you think National has done the best they can or could (should) do more for the country?
Do you think what we have now is the best we will/ can have?

To do the best would be politcal suicide. All govts. know this and very few take the action they know is necessary or they acheive nothing at all, cos they get booted out. Change frightens people. The noticeable exception in recent times was the bold, visionary Labour Govt. 1984 to 1990.

[BlackPeter]

I am curious - do you think National has done the best they can or could (should) do more for the country?
Do you think what we have now is the best we will/ can have?

Have they done the best they could have done? No, of course not ... they are humans like everybody else and as any other elected politicians frequently driven by short term goals (make the voters feel warm and fuzzy for the next election) than by long term objectives.

Have they done better than the last Labour government under HC - or better than any Left wing alternative would have done since that time? Absolutely!

Do I think what we have now is the best we will/can have?
That's more difficult to answer. I wish to think that there would be better alternatives around, but I don't see them. A horror cabinet made up from Green / Labour and NZ First politicians under Sir Winston in spe (but I don't think Shaw or Little would be better, just different) certainly would not cut it ...

[artemis]

I propose two big picture things. First, stability in unstable times (GFC, earthquakes, Australia downturn). Secondly the social investment approach where money is not chucked at anyone who asks for it or the squeakiest wheel. But data driven targeting for the best bangs for bucks over time.

One example. Teen sole parents have been a particular focus as they tend to stay on welfare much longer than other sole parents. A lot of money and effort has gone in that direction and the number of teen parents on welfare has halved since 2008. Other factors also at play, certainly, but the policy is clearly seen to be working as it was extended last year.

[iceman]

Totally agree with that artemis. The stability has been great for NZ and the result is NZ doing signficicantly better than most other OECD countries and far better than Australia for example, despite our severe setbacks with natural disasters.

The social investment approach lead and championed by Bill English is a long term policy and a radical (and successful it seems) change to Government dealing with social challenges. It seems most stakeholders agree this is showing early positive results and even Labour is not criticising it much.

It is also worth remembering that tha last Labour Government did not leave the country as seen through EZ´s rose tinted glasses (good article in NBR today "Memo to Labour. Stop digging"). If I remember correctly we had a $ 7.7 billion deficit in 2008 and had gone into recession well before the GFC hit. So the incoming National Government was faced with fast deteriorating Government accounts, GFC and natural disasters. I think we can be pretty pleased with how it was dealt with and how it is turning out. Of course it has been far from perfect but I´d say pretty good overall.

[elZorro]

Totally agree with that artemis. The stability has been great for NZ and the result is NZ doing signficicantly better than most other OECD countries and far better than Australia for example, despite our severe setbacks with natural disasters.

The social investment approach lead and championed by Bill English is a long term policy and a radical (and successful it seems) change to Government dealing with social challenges. It seems most stakeholders agree this is showing early positive results and even Labour is not criticising it much.

It is also worth remembering that tha last Labour Government did not leave the country as seen through EZ´s rose tinted glasses (good article in NBR today "Memo to Labour. Stop digging"). If I remember correctly we had a $ 7.7 billion deficit in 2008 and had gone into recession well before the GFC hit. So the incoming National Government was faced with fast deteriorating Government accounts, GFC and natural disasters. I think we can be pretty pleased with how it was dealt with and how it is turning out. Of course it has been far from perfect but I´d say pretty good overall.

Iceman, you're making stuff up there.

[iceman]

Iceman, you're making stuff up there.

Don´t think so EZ. The economy was in freefall in 2008 at the end of Labour´s reign and confirmed by your graphs

[elZorro]

Don´t think so EZ. The economy was in freefall in 2008 at the end of Labour´s reign and confirmed by your graphs

Au contraire, Iceman. Technically the 2008 financial year had a budget surplus of about 2-3% of GDP, ending in June 2008, and the National govt was in from September, 3 months later. The main reason for the big step up in govt costs after the 2008 year was higher unemployment benefits, as people were being laid off. The National govt didn't help, they laid off quite a few of their own staff and that had a ripple effect on the rest of the economy.

https://theaspiringeconomist.wordpress.com/2016/05/26/new-zealand-government-debt-and-budget-balance-2003-2012/

Shock, horror, it wasn't anything to do with Labour's policies after all! Labour didn't cause the country's govt budget to go into freefall, that happened on National's watch.

Let's just have a bit of truth on the thread.

[iceman]

And what was the result for financial year 2009 ? Surely even you can not say that was National´s creation as they´d only just taken over ! Would look it up myself if it wasn´t for the very poor and slow internet connection we have 70 nautical miles south of Cape Horn. Remember the old dial up ? Basically my lot now :-)

[elZorro]

And what was the result for financial year 2009 ? Surely even you can not say that was National´s creation as they´d only just taken over ! Would look it up myself if it wasn´t for the very poor and slow internet connection we have 70 nautical miles south of Cape Horn. Remember the old dial up ? Basically my lot now :-)

Well at least you get the prize for the most exotic posting location Iceman, I hope you don't miss out on voting..:)

[fungus pudding]

Well at least you get the prize for the most exotic posting location Iceman, I hope you don't miss out on voting..:)

Sorry about thiseZ, but I hope you do. :):D:t_up:

[elZorro]

Sorry about thiseZ, but I hope you do. :):D:t_up:

I was just thinking that we'll probably cancel each other out, but at least we had some amusement arguing the point.

[winner69]

In the UK in the 4 decades from 1960 to 1999 estimated voter turnout from both homeowners and renters was about 75% (homeowners slightly higher rate but not by much)

Since then the turnout of homeowners has decline a fraction but renters turnout has declined from 70% to less than 50%

In the UK at least those who rent the voter turnout has declined from about 70% to less than 50%. This has also occured at the same time as the gap between the turnout of those >65 and the 21-35 age group is the widest it's ever been.

I would hazard a guess much the same in NZ (yes?)

Seems the young and those who rent aren't that keen on voting.

If the main parties in NZ it seems that Greens are the one who are doing the best job promoting themselves to the young and renters .....but as EZ said Nationals advantage is that their 'supporters' turn out at a greater rate and Labour et all lament the low turnout of other groups

What's changed that is going to make this year different

[Sgt Pepper]

John Keys Knighthood

Hmm
Shortly after National came to power in 2008 they made a most unexpected announcement, the reintroduction of Knighthoods. This was both unexpected and intriguing as it had never been raised prior to the election nor was it in its manifesto. Even more so because Key had disclosed that he was " a little bit republican" However being the flexible opportunist that he is he quickly shifted ground. Just like working for families went from being " communism by stealth" in 2005 to being retained and strengthened when he came to power.
So why was he in such a hurry to reintroduce knighthoods?
Now we know .

[fungus pudding]

John Keys Knighthood

Hmm
Shortly after National came to power in 2008 they made a most unexpected announcement, the reintroduction of Knighthoods. This was both unexpected and intriguing as it had never been raised prior to the election nor was it in its manifesto. Even more so because Key had disclosed that he was " a little bit republican" However being the flexible opportunist that he is he quickly shifted ground. Just like working for families went from being " communism by stealth" in 2005 to being retained and strengthened when he came to power.
So why was he in such a hurry to reintroduce knighthoods?
Now we know .


So tell us.

[elZorro]

Here are some leftie views on John Key's reign in politics, plenty of truth in these.

https://thestandard.org.nz/arise-sir-john/

[fungus pudding]

Here are some leftie views on John Key's reign in politics, plenty of truth in these.

https://thestandard.org.nz/arise-sir-john/


No need to worry eZ. John Key has gone. There's a Mr. English there now. You'll like him.

[Sgt Pepper]

No need to worry eZ. John Key has gone. There's a Mr. English there now. You'll like him.

and what's more he remembers where he lives now. I recall some years ago there was some confusion whether his place of residence was Dipton or Wellington.

[elZorro]

R&D spend still not where it should be, small uptick lauded..

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1706/S00216/rd-spend-main-measure-of-success-for-callaghan-innovation.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+8+ June+2017

A business colleague of mine looked at the lower end funding from Callaghan recently, and saw that even there, his business, which has 1-2 employees and is a cut-down version of a much bigger export business that thrived for many years, cannot meet the criteria. SMEs are just kept out by the rules. These are newer rules, so as I suspected, they are looking at the bigger end of town and not giving startups much of a look-in.

[elZorro]

That Colmar Brunton poll isn't too bad. National had the limelight and called the shots with the budget announcement, but if Labour, the Greens and NZ First formed a coalition, there would be a stalemate on those results, 59 seats to the left/centre, 59 seats to right/centre.

And Andrew Little is picking up as preferred PM, the incumbent looking not as preferred as National people would like, I'm sure. I wonder if Bomber Bradbury's 2016 prediction of some major anti-Nat news two months out from the election will change things further? I can think of a couple of areas that Sir John Key would be shaky on, but I guess the party have been able to cauterise any big damage there.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/national-hits-six-month-high-in-latest-poll-labour-fails-make-gains-green-party-slips

[winner69]

All going for Tories in UK - outright majority likely

Just like for Nats in November

[fungus pudding]

That Colmar Brunton poll isn't too bad. National had the limelight and called the shots with the budget announcement, but if Labour, the Greens and NZ First formed a coalition, there would be a stalemate on those results, 59 seats to the left/centre, 59 seats to right/centre.

And Andrew Little is picking up as preferred PM,


Of course. Next poll will have him the most popular man in the entire planet.

[fungus pudding]

All going for Tories in UK - outright majority likely

Just like for Nats in November

Not according to exit polls.

[winner69]

Not according to exit polls.

Exit polls eh

Actual swing to Labour in counted seats not as high as exit polls implied = more than 314 for Cons than as per exit poll

[winner69]

Maybe not .......even Lab NZ might be taking hope out of this

[winner69]

Betfair and Paddy Power have Corbyn as favourite to be next PM

[elZorro]

Betfair and Paddy Power have Corbyn as favourite to be next PM

What a big swing that would be. Good slogan over there, "For the many, not the few".

[blackcap]

Betfair and Paddy Power have Corbyn as favourite to be next PM

Now Corbyn back out to 5/1, Theresa May the odds on shot again..... as at 3:01 pm

[blackcap]

Now Corbyn back out to 5/1, Theresa May the odds on shot again..... as at 3:01 pm

May 1.87
Johnson 5.50
Corbyn 6.20

[Bjauck]

May 1.87
Johnson 5.50
Corbyn 6.20
Looks like the Conservatives may limp back in with Ulster Unionist (DUP) backing. May gambled on getting a bigger mandate for whatever Brexit she decided upon. She failed. Her time as PM must be limited. However, who else in the Conservative Party would do a better job - I doubt if Bo Johnson would. What a right royal mess.

[BlackPeter]

Looks like the Conservatives may limp back in with Ulster Unionist (DUP) backing. May gambled on getting a bigger mandate for whatever Brexit she decided upon. She failed. Her time as PM must be limited. However, who else in the Conservative Party would do a better job - I doubt if Bo Johnson would. What a right royal mess.

Royal mess? A mess, for sure - but what is royal about that? However - it is all fully deserved and I can't help to feel some schadenfreude while watching the unfolding results.

They talk already about May's last days (about time, given it's already June ...) and another general election later this year.

Sounds to me like Italy - just the food and the weather is worse ...

[blackcap]

Boris Johnson coming in now to 4's. May way out to 3's. This market is swinging like nobodys business.
Latest odds for next PM:

May 3.00
Johnson 4.00
Rudd 10.00
Davis 13.00
Corbyn 19.00

[Snow Leopard]

Boris Johnson coming in now to 4's. May way out to 3's. This market is swinging like nobodys business.
Latest odds for next PM:

May 3.00
Johnson 4.00
Rudd 10.00 << Kevin ?
Davis 13.00
Corbyn 19.00

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Not according to exit polls.

At the end of the day the exit polls were about spot on .......amazing

[blackcap]

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Haha, no Amber RUdd.....

Updated at 10:32 pm its almost all over....

May 1.07
Boris 32
Corbyn 40

Rest over 100

[Bjauck]

Royal mess? A mess, for sure - but what is royal about that? However - it is all fully deserved and I can't help to feel some schadenfreude while watching the unfolding results.

They talk already about May's last days (about time, given it's already June ...) and another general election later this year.

Sounds to me like Italy - just the food* and the weather** is worse ...
"Right royal" - an expression with which you are unfamiliar?
"schadenfreude" at the UK's current travails would be unsurprising amongst Continental Europhiles.
A few years ago, Belgium did not have a government for over a year...but the Belgians were not stepping out of line in the EU at the time.

*Depends if the old stereotype is still true. I have had great food from a wide range of cuisines in the UK; awful food in Italy. I love fish and chips, yorkshire pudding, cornish pasties and devonshire teas. An individual and cultural taste?
** What is bad weather? Mediterranean sun on a pale skin is always good? :cursing:

[Bjauck]

Haha, no Amber RUdd.....

Updated at 10:32 pm its almost all over....

May 1.07
Boris 32
Corbyn 40

Rest over 100 Yep...May back in for now. However is she sacrificing NI peace to remain in office? Her NI secretary may be given little respect by Sinn Fein and the republican side as the Conservative government will be relying on the Democratic Unionist Party in order to govern.

[winner69]

Hey EZ, love this bit from the media - Australia’s election guru Lynton Crosby has been blamed for the Conservative Party’s disastrous performance.

No doubt Labour NZ take heart from the UK election?

[Bjauck]

Hey EZ, love this bit from the media - Australia’s election guru Lynton Crosby has been blamed for the Conservative Party’s disastrous performance.

No doubt Labour NZ take heart from the UK election? They need to transform Little into more of a Jeremy Corbyn/Bernie Sanders type of character

[elZorro]

Hey EZ, love this bit from the media - Australia’s election guru Lynton Crosby has been blamed for the Conservative Party’s disastrous performance.

No doubt Labour NZ take heart from the UK election?

Yes, good to see that Crosby-Textor don't always provide the best advice. That youth vote is generally missing in NZ, looks very leftie in the UK, so we need to get them voting here. I would think the youth of today know about global warming, and can see that in a future of limited resources, a winner-takes-all approach won't be good for the majority. The younger vote rate was 74% in the UK, much higher than generally seen here.

[iceman]

Hey EZ, love this bit from the media - Australia’s election guru Lynton Crosby has been blamed for the Conservative Party’s disastrous performance.

No doubt Labour NZ take heart from the UK election?

Winner I saw that too, but the article I read said Sir Lynton Crosby, Felt like I knew him from EZ's frequent mentioning of him :-)

[winner69]

Yes, good to see that Crosby-Textor don't always provide the best advice. That youth vote is generally missing in NZ, looks very leftie in the UK, so we need to get them voting here. I would think the youth of today know about global warming, and can see that in a future of limited resources, a winner-takes-all approach won't be good for the majority. The younger vote rate was 74% in the UK, much higher than generally seen here.

EZ - ues big increase in turnout if under 35s .......but maybe as both Labour and National seem neither left or right (economically or culturally) the under 25s won't turn out in any greater numbers than before.

Here's an interesting article on how Labour UK (successfully) used social media to engage with the younger ones (which no doubt helped their cause)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/corbyn-memes-wot-won-it-some-of-the-best

But I can't see Little fitting the mould of Absolute Boy or coming out and saying 'yes, I collect manhole covers'

[winner69]

Ironic that the high turn out by the young in the UK probably leaves even more disaffected then in the past - they still ended up with what they didn't want to happen ....and even more chaotic than before.

[BlackPeter]

Ironic that the high turn out by the young in the UK probably leaves even more disaffected then in the past - they still ended up with what they didn't want to happen ....and even more chaotic than before.

Actually - I think what happened in the UK was the best outcome imaginable given the alternatives. I guess - let's face it - Corbyn would want to bring the country back into a 1970'ies socialism which would have killed the economy, while May would have achieved the same result (i.e. killing the British economy) by going for a hard BREXIT.

What they've got now is a minority government with very little wiggle room to do anything - and neither follow the right nor the left extreme. With a little bit of luck the British economy might survive under these circumstances.

The young voters should be very pleased about the outcome. I give you though - they might not know how happy they should be given the current election outcome ;).

[winner69]

It'll all be fine when Boris takesover as PM

[BlackPeter]

It'll all be fine when Boris takesover as PM

Black British humour at its best?

[Bjauck]

It'll all be fine when Boris takesover as PMlol If the favourite to take the leadership over from May is BoJo, you know the Conservatives have lost the plot. Monty Python and The Search for the Wholy Brexit?

[craic]

No. It's the British voting public who have lost the plot. The suggestion that they were going to shaft the oldies by making them use their houses to pay for aged care and one other hit at the oldies was the big mistake. That they withdrew the threat didn't really matter. What would they do after the election? The grave danger now is that the extremists will continue to strike and pull the country down into anarchy as the other side organise and hit back. To those who believe that the IRA were the centre of all evil in Ulster look out. The Ulster Unionists are right up there at the helm and they will have a clear plan for Muslim extremists. You ain't seen nuttin yet.

[macduffy]

Just another case of disillusionment with the political status quo. This too will pass.

:mellow:

[BlackPeter]

No. It's the British voting public who have lost the plot.
...


You mean you would have preferred an outright Labour victory? Craic, you are always good for surprises.
But yes, the pendulum clearly starts to swing back from an extreme of irresponsible populism. Bring it on!

[Bjauck]

No. It's the British voting public who have lost the plot. The suggestion that they were going to shaft the oldies by making them use their houses to pay for aged care and one other hit at the oldies was the big mistake. That they withdrew the threat didn't really matter. What would they do after the election? I guess it was a GIGO election. First a referendum which involved lies, threats, "promises" and all kinds of rubbish and then an election with much the same, plus u-turns and pipe-dreams (Garbage In). The electorate produced an appropriate convulsive reaction (Garbage Out).


The grave danger now is that the extremists will continue to strike and pull the country down into anarchy as the other side organise and hit back. To those who believe that the IRA were the centre of all evil in Ulster look out. The Ulster Unionists are right up there at the helm and they will have a clear plan for Muslim extremists. You ain't seen nuttin yet. Well, UKIP and Brexit produced what is turning into a mess and anarchy. Ulster Unionist/Sinn Fein/UKIP any mixture of those would be dancing with danger. I imagine some would hope that none of them would take their place in Westminster.

[elZorro]

Labour's policies looking smarter and smarter now, the new immigration policy in a tie-up with Kiwibuild makes a lot of sense.

http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/88222/differences-between-national-and-labour-housing-starting-show-through-adams-readies?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+12+J une+2017

[GTM 3442]

Labour's policies looking smarter and smarter now, the new immigration policy in a tie-up with Kiwibuild makes a lot of sense.

http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/88222/differences-between-national-and-labour-housing-starting-show-through-adams-readies?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+12+J une+2017

Having flicked through the immigration policy, I'd say that if they can keep coming up with this sort of stuff they're a dead cert.

Especially when you add in the populist stuff of the past couple of years, and the traditional New Zealand "three in a row - time to go" factor.

[winner69]

Labour's policies looking smarter and smarter now, the new immigration policy in a tie-up with Kiwibuild makes a lot of sense.

http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/88222/differences-between-national-and-labour-housing-starting-show-through-adams-readies?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+12+J une+2017

Winston says this sounds rather xenophobic and says congratulations for putting New Zealand First

[elZorro]

Winston says this sounds rather xenophobic and says congratulations for putting New Zealand First

Not so, W69. In fact Andrew Little said he'd personally call out anyone who implied that, just yesterday.

The central issue is that immigration has gone out of control over National's reign. It has boosted the economy, but left us with a shortage of road space, hospital beds, school places, school leaver jobs, and more noticeably, houses. National will have to go into the election while leaving the immigration settings alone, for fear of looking caught out.

If they do change the immigration settings now, it could quickly impact on house prices in Auckland. High immigration set those prices alight, and a more sensible setting will put them in a holding pattern at best.

Anyway, W69 (Devil's Advocate) where would you stand on record immigration into NZ, really? Not one of the 25%? I'm ambivalent about it, to me it's just another example of National's mismanagement, a failure to govern.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/12-06-2017/as-we-gear-up-for-an-election-a-new-poll-reveals-nzers-views-on-immigration/

National's economic record - Crown debt way up at nearly $100billion, the govt will be paying about $3billion a year in interest, that's 4% of taxes paid, and they're still a long way off repaying any debt. That never gets mentioned.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11873204&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+13+ June+2017

[BlackPeter]

Labour's policies looking smarter and smarter now, the new immigration policy in a tie-up with Kiwibuild makes a lot of sense.

http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/88222/differences-between-national-and-labour-housing-starting-show-through-adams-readies?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+12+J une+2017

EZ, just wondering whether now is for Labour a good time to jump on the leaving populism train? Didn't you notice that anti immigration Trump's popularity is at an all time low, the populist anti immigration tories got a kick in the guts in Britain and Winston First looks paler by the day.

I guess it is obviously pure desperation that Labour offers to severely damage our international education industry to satisfy a handful of old caucasians who otherwise would vote for Winston, but still - do you really think this is a good idea? Or is this just blind loyalty to a party which passed their best by date a long time ago and is not any more capable to shape a better future?

[craic]

Certainly, if you emphasise the Dead bit.

[Bjauck]

EZ, just wondering whether now is for Labour a good time to jump on the leaving populism train? Didn't you notice that anti immigration Trump's popularity is at an all time low, the populist anti immigration tories got a kick in the guts in Britain... I don't think that is correct for the UK. Both UK labour and Conservative platforms pledged to bring back sovereign control over immigration by ending freedom of movement with the EU. This may have improved Labour's chances in areas that heavily voted for Brexit in the referendum. However unlike the Cons, Lab may not have produced specific migration targets.

Sensible control of immigration and populism are not necessarily linked.

Controlling migration so that infrastructure can cater for increased population is sensible and can allay the rise of populists. It is not linked to Vilification or scapegoating of immigrants, which can be a hallmark extremists and populists.

[winner69]

Not so, W69. In fact Andrew Little said he'd personally call out anyone who implied that, just yesterday.

The central issue is that immigration has gone out of control over National's reign. It has boosted the economy, but left us with a shortage of road space, hospital beds, school places, school leaver jobs, and more noticeably, houses.

.....and more]

You hit the nail on the head - the real issue is lack of investment on those things you listed .....by successive governments this century

[winner69]

......
.

Anyway, W69 (Devil's Advocate) where would you stand on record immigration into NZ, really? Not one of the 25%? I'm ambivalent about it, to me it's just another example of National's mismanagement, a failure to govern.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/12-06-2017/as-we-gear-up-for-an-election-a-new-poll-reveals-nzers-views-on-immigration/



No EZ - I'm aligned with those 31% of NZ citizens who are total positive thing (as opposed to the 25% who think it negative)

Over the last 5 years net migration has increased by 76,000 odd (from -4,000 to +76,000). Interestingly NZ citizens make up 38,000 of this change (say half) being 29,000 LESS NZers leaving and 9,000 more NZers returning home.

Yes nearly 30,000 more non NZers have arrived here (98,000 in total) but over many years we have managed quite well with an average of 70,000 new arrivals). I still contend that this is good for NZ

So a lot of the 'issues' around 'immigration' is actually all these bloody Kiwis coming home and less leaving.

That survey you posted the link too is interesting - makes you wonder why Labour wants to make an issue of immigrtaion if only 25% of NZers think its bad. Are they trying to create an emotional argument or something and sway some of those in the 42% who seem relaxed about immigration one way or the other.

Result of that survey below

[winner69]

EZ - that survey about immigration really interesting. Thanks for pointing me towards it

I found this bit intriguing -


Younger New Zealanders lean towards a more open and accommodating approach to migration

One trend that runs throughout the UMR survey is that younger New Zealanders lean toward openness and accommodation on migration. Compared to the over-60 demographic, for example, 18–29 year olds are half as likely to think you need to be born in New Zealand to be a “true New Zealander” (21% versus 40%), half as likely to think migrants should abandon practices that New Zealanders deem “wrong or offensive” (24% versus 47%), much more relaxed about English language proficiency, and generally much less likely to agree with various complaints about immigration such as reduced cultural cohesion, sense of belonging, urban segregation, crime, and risk of terrorism.



Begs the question - who are Labour targeting with this immigration policy?

[winner69]

In that Labour announcement on immigration -

We will investigate ways to ensure that the Pacific Access Quota and Samoan Quota which are currently underutilised are fully met.


EZ - Lots of voters in Labours heartland of South Auckland?

And I make no judgement whether this is good for improving skills level.

[elZorro]

W69, you're now doing too much research, I'm stuck at work. But if you are correct, and many infrastructure areas have been underfunded in the past, is it therefore negligent of the current government to burden that same infrastructure with record immigration levels, for years at a time? When are they going to start governing? Haven't they proven to be poor leaders of the country? I think Labour have done careful research, their policies should help the situation.

After all, taxpayer money has been spent on all NZ-born youths who are not in training, not in employment. Those are the people we need to see getting their first real jobs. Maybe they'll need more training first, some incentives, some decent pay. All of that shouldn't be impossible.

[Bjauck]

...
That survey you posted the link too is interesting - makes you wonder why Labour wants to make an issue of immigrtaion if only 25% of NZers think its bad. Are they trying to create an emotional argument or something and sway some of those in the 42% who seem relaxed about immigration one way or the other.

Result of that survey below

It is all in the question asked. The question asked about "immigration" and not the amount of immigration.

I guess you can be positive towards immigration but negative towards a high level of immigration. Whether people think the immigration level is "high" may depend on how well infrastructure and housing can cater for the existing population as well as new arrivals.

Even people who only want a small amount of immigration may consider at least some immigration is "an entirely positive thing" and could answer with a "10".

[westerly]

[QUOTE=BlackPeter;669693

I guess it is obviously pure desperation that Labour offers to severely damage our international education industry to satisfy a handful of old caucasians who otherwise would vote for Winston, but still - do you really think this is a good idea? Or is this just blind loyalty to a party which passed their best by date a long time ago and is not any more capable to shape a better future?[/QUOTE]

"Bill English and others say Labour would harm a multi billion export industry as though the industry was sacrosanct and exempt from even minor change"
Quote from "The Press " editorial this morning which basically endorsed Labours policy on immigration.
Probably written by an old caucasian.

westerly

[craic]

The Herald mostly endorses Labour. I'm sure el Zorro is either the editor or their chief political adviser.

[dobby41]

The Herald mostly endorses Labour. I'm sure el Zorro is either the editor or their chief political adviser.

Could be that they are just really smart people.

[elZorro]

Could be that they are just really smart people.

I'll frame that, really cheered me up!

Immigration and the so-called economic growth, good comments.

https://thestandard.org.nz/immigration-and-economic-growth/

[elZorro]

The OECD has a report on NZ's low productivity which seems to match up fairly well to many observers in the comments. Steven Joyce, he's not so sure.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/93706019/oecd-suggests-cures-for-nzs-productivity-problem?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+16+J une+2017

We are fairly laid back I guess, generally. My spouse has just started working for a larger local body, and is surprised at the number of managers, meetings and stress points. It doesn't appear to be very efficient.

But I am just as guilty of providing basic management at work, I'm not good at it and I haven't had any formal training in it. So when they say we could have a 2.5% improvement across the country, I'm sure it's bigger than that.

[artemis]

We will just have to increase automation if employees at all levels don't improve productivity.

I see at Fieldays there is a smart kiwifruit picking robot, which could be in production in a couple of years. Expensive to start with but will work around the clock at harvest time. And carry out other tasks like spraying as well. And the universities are looking to expand its capabilities to apples next.

Increased automation will come at the expense of jobs.

[elZorro]

We will just have to increase automation if employees at all levels don't improve productivity.

I see at Fieldays there is a smart kiwifruit picking robot, which could be in production in a couple of years. Expensive to start with but will work around the clock at harvest time. And carry out other tasks like spraying as well. And the universities are looking to expand its capabilities to apples next.

Increased automation will come at the expense of jobs.

I saw that robot too, briefly. Not sure it could keep up with a real picking job in a real canopy, and it wouldn't be cheap. Massey showed one a few years ago too, not sure what happened to that. When these units progress well past a student/graduate prototype into a production model, I'd look harder. Good job though.

[janner]

Increased automation will come at the expense of jobs.

Nah !!.. We have automation ( cards ) at most petrol pumps these days..

But we still have to import these highly skilled " Forecourt Engineers " to supply the Lollies and Coffee.. Shaken not stirred..

[winner69]

EZ - ues big increase in turnout if under 35s .......but maybe as both Labour and National seem neither left or right (economically or culturally) the under 25s won't turn out in any greater numbers than before.

Here's an interesting article on how Labour UK (successfully) used social media to engage with the younger ones (which no doubt helped their cause)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/corbyn-memes-wot-won-it-some-of-the-best

But I can't see Little fitting the mould of Absolute Boy or coming out and saying 'yes, I collect manhole covers'

EZ - your mate (?) Bryce Edwards agrees with me

Nothing to excite the young enough to get them voting in November

Little not the man to do it ..nor is Bill but then Bill don't need the young vote

Sadly becoming even more certain Nats will win a 4th term .....by default

[elZorro]

EZ - your mate (?) Bryce Edwards agrees with me

Nothing to excite the young enough to get them voting in November

Little not the man to do it ..nor is Bill but then Bill don't need the young vote

Sadly becoming even more certain Nats will win a 4th term .....by default

Yes, I see what you mean, but the UK has a bigger population, more room for that kind of thing. Maybe the boffins at Labour HQ are thinking up some memes as we speak, but I doubt it. It would be up to Young Labour to do something in that line, to kick something off, although locally they appear to be "time poor". This could be a problem when it's time to put up the hoardings..

Don't write the Labour-Greens off, and in any case, does anyone know which side NZ First will back, given the balance of power? Their policies and all Winston's rhetoric say that he'd need to side with the centre left.

[blackcap]

Their policies and all Winston's rhetoric say that he'd need to side with the centre left.

And unfortunately in NZ the centre left happens to be National.

[elZorro]

And unfortunately in NZ the centre left happens to be National.

Maybe from your point of view, not mine. Look a bit deeper and they're more right-wing than you think.

Speaking of Winston, he's holding the govt to task on trying to hold back a favourable report about a third dual rail line in Auckland, predictably not funded by this govt in the latest budget round.

Too awkward I guess. They had it redacted instead.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/333106/rail-proposal-that-minister-s-office-tried-to-block-released

[fungus pudding]

Yes, I see what you mean, but the UK has a bigger population, more room for that kind of thing. Maybe the boffins at Labour HQ are thinking up some memes as we speak, but I doubt it. It would be up to Young Labour to do something in that line, to kick something off, although locally they appear to be "time poor". This could be a problem when it's time to put up the hoardings..

Don't write the Labour-Greens off,

Labour/Greens have already been written off by a large proportion of voters. Labour will not make any traction until they have a new leader. You know that - the whole Labour party knows that, but simply haven't done anything about it.

[elZorro]

Labour/Greens have already been written off by a large proportion of voters. Labour will not make any traction until they have a new leader. You know that - the whole Labour party knows that, but simply haven't done anything about it.

How do you know they won't make any traction, look at what happened in the UK, and who says Labour needs a new leader? Just all the crony National voters.

Isn't the election about more than the leaders? What about policy? And you could add to that, past history. You go ahead, vote again for National, that'll suit your interests. But you're voting for a govt that has borrowed to meet shortfalls for nine years, is now paying interest of over $3bill a year, so about 1 in every 20 tax dollars wasted on interest, they are doing nothing about climate change, haven't help build smart new export businesses and high value employers, have deliberately ramped house prices with recent record immigration.

They've had their chance, now they must go.

[fungus pudding]

How do you know they won't make any traction, look at what happened in the UK, and who says Labour needs a new leader? Just all the crony National voters.



History tells the story. No party ever wins with an unpopular leader. Even your Labour cronies will tell you that.

[elZorro]

History tells the story. No party ever wins with an unpopular leader. Even your Labour cronies will tell you that.

But the left bloc could easily win, FP. UMR polling over 7-15 June shows a better picture for Labour-Greens.

https://yournz.org/2017/06/16/labour-poll-different/

[BlackPeter]

Don't write the Labour-Greens off, and in any case, does anyone know which side NZ First will back, given the balance of power? Their policies and all Winston's rhetoric say that he'd need to side with the centre left.

Winston always talks with the largest party first ... and he will go with whoever is promising him a "Sir Winston" in the aftermath. Labour abolished this title once before, which would exclude them anyway - and the Greenies? You must be kidding. Can you imagine Winston working together with them? Really?

If history is a guide, than Winston's rhetoric is just to catch voters and has nothing to do with what he will do afterwards if in a position of power. Just look at his race card. Only used prior to elections.

This means unless Labour starts to listen instead of lecturing (but probably too late for this election) or the sky falls in we will either end up with a National / Act / United coalition or a National/ NZF coalition. I'd prefer the first option, but hey - we survived Winston enjoying the baubles of power before.

[iceman]

But the left bloc could easily win, FP. UMR polling over 7-15 June shows a better picture for Labour-Greens.

https://yournz.org/2017/06/16/labour-poll-different/

Are you claiming NZF is part of a "left bloc" EZ ? Is that not stretching the truth a little and indicating some desperation on your part ?
I also think you should be very careful to take any comfort from th suprisingly "good" result from UK Labour, even though they still lost. The UK is in a very different situation and facing very different challenges to NZ and their political situation is much more fragile as a result. I don´t think we have any political comparison between NZ and UK at the moment

[fungus pudding]

Winston always talks with the largest party first ... and he will go with whoever is promising him a "Sir Winston" in the aftermath. .............

Or whoever will let him be P.M. And Labour/greens would just about have to, given that neither of their leaders is P.M material. Winnie would be in like a robber's dog if he could get P.M role. I wouldn't discount it.

[BlackPeter]

Or whoever will let him be P.M. And Labour/greens would just about have to, given that neither of their leaders is P.M material. Winnie would be in like a robber's dog if he could get P.M role. I wouldn't discount it.

Fair enough - having the PM title would be a strong motivator for Winston First. Still struggle to see how Labour / Green and NZF would agree on a program other than sit on the government's benches - and would have hoped that at least the Greenies pretend to still have some principles, but you might be right ... better make sure National / ACT / United / Maori Party get enough votes to keep the ship steady.

On the other hand - if we really would get a Labour / Green / NZF government we might be able to claim America's place as laughing stock of the world. This must count for something, doesn't it?

BTW - anybody taking note of the amazing election results in France? A liberal president gains absolute majority in parliament and marginalises conservatives, lefties as well as populists :t_up:. Liberalism is the future - that's the way to go!

[fungus pudding]

Fair enough - having the PM title would be a strong motivator for Winston First. Still struggle to see how Labour / Green and NZF would agree on a program other than sit on the government's benches - and would have hoped that at least the Greenies pretend to still have some principles, but you might be right ... better make sure National / ACT / United / Maori Party get enough votes to keep the ship steady.



I'm sure I am right. Winston first will not coalesce with L/G with Little as PM and Shaw or Turei as deputy P.M. in a million years; although he'll go through the motions to frighten National and up his pile of bargaining chips . Make him top dog and everything else will fly out the window in his rush to say yes.
I agree with your advice, and may vote Act or Maori party if polling looks like an extra vote might boost their numbers in parliament. Otherwise I'll vote National with my party vote. Electorate vote doesn't count in my electorate. It's solid Labour, always has been, and yet the party vote went heavily for National in the last election.

[winner69]

Bill needs to sack Todd ....now

[dobby41]

Bill needs to sack Todd ....now

Bill needs to sack Bill also - he said he didn't know about it but clearly did at the time.
And how about using the leaders fund (wasn't Bill at the time but National) as hush money - bad, very bad.

[winner69]

Bill needs to sack Bill also - he said he didn't know about it but clearly did at the time.
And how about using the leaders fund (wasn't Bill at the time but National) as hush money - bad, very bad.

and now Bill can't recall things .... yeah right

[craic]

All a load of rubbish that won't affect Nationals ability to win the next election. The vast majority of voters are contented in jobs and homes with plenty of food on the table and that's all that matters.

[elZorro]

All a load of rubbish that won't affect Nationals ability to win the next election. The vast majority of voters are contented in jobs and homes with plenty of food on the table and that's all that matters.

Absolutely. There is no need for MPs to be held to account, they are just employees are they?. In fact, they have all collectively managed to not sign up to any house rules and regulations on their behaviour when in this most high office. The parties have some kind of rules, but there is no law about all this, except common law.

In this case, there is a case to answer, and then there are the lies about what was done. Todd lied to Parliament. Even Bill English isn't without fault. Oh dear. Could be messy.

Bill's statement to the Police. (https://www.scribd.com/document/351758869/Bill-English-Police-Statement)

More disturbing news about National, they have done very well on the big donations front.

https://thestandard.org.nz/party-donations-analysis/

There's no such thing as a free lunch.

[iceman]

Bill needs to sack Todd ....now

Agreed. He´s been stupid

[GTM 3442]

Agreed. He´s been stupid

One-off stupidity you can understand, but this seems to have gone on over quite a period of time.

To be parachuted into an electorate, then fall out with your experienced electorate staff in such a dramatic manner seems to be the height of folly.

There seem to have been a few of these over the past few years. Perhaps the National Party needs to review their candidate selection criteria and process.

So much fuss, and so public, and so close to an election. The Donors will not be happy.

[elZorro]

One-off stupidity you can understand, but this seems to have gone on over quite a period of time.

To be parachuted into an electorate, then fall out with your experienced electorate staff in such a dramatic manner seems to be the height of folly.

There seem to have been a few of these over the past few years. Perhaps the National Party needs to review their candidate selection criteria and process.

So much fuss, and so public, and so close to an election. The Donors will not be happy.

Here are more details about how the situation unfolded.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/06/19/34825/the-politician-the-police-the-payout

So Bill never endorsed Todd Barclay in the first place. Problems started soon after Barclay arrived as the MP, and he's been dodging the work ever since.

We've all met someone like this, they get a plum job because they're great with the BS, they otherwise aren't even good at the job, don't even want to extend themselves. This guy Todd Barclay doesn't deserve to be an MP, but from what I know, he's not the only National MP who gives lip service to the public, but in private thinks he's on another level where he shouldn't have to deal with this.

So he's lied, been very economical with the truth in other areas, avoided talking to the police, and the police didn't go and get him for questioning. What he did was illegal. Plus he's obviously a useless MP.

And worse, here's the National Party hoping to keep him as an MP until the election. They think the public won't worry about it within a week or so. It'll all blow over.

[dobby41]

All a load of rubbish that won't affect Nationals ability to win the next election. The vast majority of voters are contented in jobs and homes with plenty of food on the table and that's all that matters.

I suppose honesty and integrity is too much to expect from the leader.
They say that the culture comes from the top.

JK could lie and smile at the same time - Bill can't.

[dobby41]

And worse, here's the National Party hoping to keep him as an MP until the election. They think the public won't worry about it within a week or so. It'll all blow over.

And worse he's dragged the PM into it.
Though to be fair Bill dragged himself into it when he lied about what he knew and when he knew it.
We done the investigation team for dragging the truth out.

As for the police - seems they drop this because the MP wouldn't cooperate but have no problems serving warrants on the media when the PM was recorded.
Seems there are different standards that apply?

[blackcap]

They think the public won't worry about it within a week or so. It'll all blow over.

It will, its a beltway issue. Most people do not even know what the fuss is all about.

[fungus pudding]

Here are more details about how the situation unfolded.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/06/19/34825/the-politician-the-police-the-payout

So Bill never endorsed Todd Barclay in the first place. Problems started soon after Barclay arrived as the MP, and he's been dodging the work ever since.

We've all met someone like this, they get a plum job because they're great with the BS, they otherwise aren't even good at the job, don't even want to extend themselves. This guy Todd Barclay doesn't deserve to be an MP, but from what I know, he's not the only National MP who gives lip service to the public, but in private thinks he's on another level where he shouldn't have to deal with this.

So he's lied, been very economical with the truth in other areas, avoided talking to the police, and the police didn't go and get him for questioning. What he did was illegal. Plus he's obviously a useless MP.

And worse, here's the National Party hoping to keep him as an MP until the election. They think the public won't worry about it within a week or so. It'll all blow over.

I think the National party will be hoping he stands down. They can't sack him, although I think the local committee can revoke his selection for the coming election. He would have made an excellent Labour selection.

[elZorro]

I think the National party will be hoping he stands down. They can't sack him, although I think the local committee can revoke his selection for the coming election. He would have made an excellent Labour selection.

National's backbencher Chris was made to look a fool on TV this morning, when grilled over the issue. Jack seemed to be enjoying himself. I get the feeling he might not be a National voter. Smart guy, Jack.

A little bit of inside news: it sounds like Bill English had a friend of his set up for the candidacy, but the night before the candidates for Clutha-Southland were to be grilled, the friend pulled out because his wife wouldn't allow him to take on the job anyway. This left the way wide open for Todd Barclay, it would appear he wasn't the first choice after all.

Now there's talk of infighting in the National Party ranks, on TV. Sacrilege!

[dobby41]

I think the National party will be hoping he stands down. They can't sack him, although I think the local committee can revoke his selection for the coming election. He would have made an excellent Labour selection.

They can sack him - withdraw his party membership.

[fungus pudding]

National's backbencher Chris was made to look a fool on TV this morning, when grilled over the issue. Jack seemed to be enjoying himself. I get the feeling he might not be a National voter. Smart guy, Jack.

A little bit of inside news: it sounds like Bill English had a friend of his set up for the candidacy, but the night before the candidates for Clutha-Southland were to be grilled, the friend pulled out because his wife wouldn't allow him to take on the job anyway. This left the way wide open for Todd Barclay, it would appear he wasn't the first choice after all.

Now there's talk of infighting in the National Party ranks, on TV. Sacrilege!

Scandalous!

[iceman]

A little bit of inside news: it sounds like Bill English had a friend of his set up for the candidacy, but the night before the candidates for Clutha-Southland were to be grilled, the friend pulled out because his wife wouldn't allow him to take on the job anyway. This left the way wide open for Todd Barclay, it would appear he wasn't the first choice after all.

Now there's talk of infighting in the National Party ranks, on TV. Sacrilege!

Is that "inside" the Labour Party ? There won't be much infighting going on in the party. Blackcap is right that most people don't know what it is about. But I sure hope the electorate committee deselects him for the upcoming election, an election that National will win regardless due to no real alternative choice for voters.

[fungus pudding]

They can sack him - withdraw his party membership.

They can't sack him from parliament, but you might be right. If they cancel his membership now I suppose that deselects him.

[elZorro]

Is that "inside" the Labour Party ? There won't be much infighting going on in the party. Blackcap is right that most people don't know what it is about. But I sure hope the electorate committee deselects him for the upcoming election, an election that National will win regardless due to no real alternative choice for voters.

Have you made it back Iceman, still keen on National I see? My inside bit was fed via someone's contact in Clutha-Southland.

This little furore will lose a couple of percentage points for National in the next poll, it's all the Labour-Green coalition needs.

Todd caught out lying again..and Paddy Gower is out there digging around.

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/06/todd-barclay-tape-scandal-yet-more-false-statements-emerge.html

Look what happens when the journalists start doing their job.

[fungus pudding]

Have you made it back Iceman, still keen on National I see? My inside bit was fed via someone's contact in Clutha-Southland.

This little furore will lose a couple of percentage points for National in the next poll, it's all the Labour-Green coalition needs.

Todd caught out lying again..and Paddy Gower is out there digging around.

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/06/todd-barclay-tape-scandal-yet-more-false-statements-emerge.html

Look what happens when the journalists start doing their job.

This must be terribly exciting for you eZ. Just keep a close eye on your blood pressure.

[craic]

So Now the National candidate ( that no one ever heard is gone and will be replaced at the next election) is out and all is well. Now if Labour could change their underwear at that speed they might have a chance to get somewhere in an election. But their problem is that they would have to start at the top. And their prime target could only be accused of inertia or something like that. If only they could snare Winston Peters.

[dobby41]

So Now the National candidate ( that no one ever heard is gone and will be replaced at the next election) is out and all is well. Now if Labour could change their underwear at that speed they might have a chance to get somewhere in an election. But their problem is that they would have to start at the top. And their prime target could only be accused of inertia or something like that. If only they could snare Winston Peters.

He is gone but the leaders integrity is tarnished.
You don't have a problem that Billy lied and lied?
No issues with using tax payers money to hush things up?
The means justify the ends - until they don't!

[GTM 3442]

Well I can think of a couple of other candidate selection debacles in the National Party over the past five or so years. (The upshot of one, of course, is that now we all know who Aaron Gilmore was).

But they do seem to have a bit of an issue with entitled blokes. In fact very few of the blokes have come out of this particularly well, compared with the grace and dignity displayed by the women involved.

I'm wondering if this is an indication that there's a desperate need for more women in Parliament?

[elZorro]

Well I can think of a couple of other candidate selection debacles in the National Party over the past five or so years. (The upshot of one, of course, is that now we all know who Aaron Gilmore was).

But they do seem to have a bit of an issue with entitled blokes. In fact very few of the blokes have come out of this particularly well, compared with the grace and dignity displayed by the women involved.

I'm wondering if this is an indication that there's a desperate need for more women in Parliament?

In that case vote Labour, since our party is meant to look like a cross-section of NZ's best.

I'm sorry Barclay is gone, that could have been dragged out a bit. He'd worked under Bill for a short time, in his office. So Bill knew him well, but didn't recommend him as a candidate and ring-in MP the first time up.

[GTM 3442]

In that case vote Labour, since our party is meant to look like a cross-section of NZ's best.

I'm sorry Barclay is gone, that could have been dragged out a bit. He'd worked under Bill for a short time, in his office. So Bill knew him well, but didn't recommend him as a candidate and ring-in MP the first time up.

I suppose that if you look at it through the lens of Labour Party politics, then it must have all come to far too rapid a conclusion.

However if you look at it a different way, then I think you simply end up a bit sad that there's been a new floor set for political behaviour, and a bit despondent because you think it likely that there'll soon be a new, even lower, floor on the horizon.

[elZorro]

I suppose that if you look at it through the lens of Labour Party politics, then it must have all come to far too rapid a conclusion.

However if you look at it a different way, then I think you simply end up a bit sad that there's been a new floor set for political behaviour, and a bit despondent because you think it likely that there'll soon be a new, even lower, floor on the horizon.

No, Labour and Green insiders are well aware of the rot that has set in over the last nine years (Dirty Politics), and wouldn't emulate that. And just watching the policy decisions that pull NZ away from being an egalitarian society. If you had a deep look at some of these National MPs, you'd wonder how they get to stay in office.

I bet the press have been given plenty of leads to follow up in the past, and haven't bothered, because National MPs place more ads in their papers.

[fungus pudding]

I bet the press have been given plenty of leads to follow up in the past, and haven't bothered, because National MPs place more ads in their papers.

Oh dear ez. That paranoia seems to be at an all time high.

[GTM 3442]

No, Labour and Green insiders are well aware of the rot that has set in over the last nine years (Dirty Politics), and wouldn't emulate that. And just watching the policy decisions that pull NZ away from being an egalitarian society. If you had a deep look at some of these National MPs, you'd wonder how they get to stay in office.

I bet the press have been given plenty of leads to follow up in the past, and haven't bothered, because National MPs place more ads in their papers.

Oh, I don't know, elZorro.

I'm inclined to think that when it comes to lowering the floor, everyone's had their fair go with the digger.

I've known a few MPs over the years and like you, I wonder how they manage to stay in office. I've also wondered how some of them ever got selected in the first place. I lean to the suspicion that perhaps they know where the bodies are buried.

[elZorro]

Oh, I don't know, elZorro.

I'm inclined to think that when it comes to lowering the floor, everyone's had their fair go with the digger.

I've known a few MPs over the years and like you, I wonder how they manage to stay in office. I've also wondered how some of them ever got selected in the first place. I lean to the suspicion that perhaps they know where the bodies are buried.

Regardless, it's National who are looking fairly shady at the moment. Bill English was complicit in a cover-up, and John Key as PM offered money from his own taxpayer slush fund to keep it quiet. Why was Todd Barclay so important to them in 2016?

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/06/20/35006/english-barclay

[blackcap]

Regardless, it's National who are looking fairly shady at the moment. Bill English was complicit in a cover-up, and John Key as PM offered money from his own taxpayer slush fund to keep it quiet. Why was Todd Barclay so important to them in 2016?

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/06/20/35006/english-barclay

El Zorro, I know you may be fizzing all over this but the average family man/woman does not really care as long as the WFF keeps coming, the job pays the bills and their individual situation stays the same or improves. Fortunately for National more than 50% of ppl in this country are in that boat. They do not really care what some 26 year old punk may or may not have been taping on a dictaphone in the deep south. :)

[dobby41]

El Zorro, I know you may be jizzing all over this but the average family man/woman does not really care as long as the WFF keeps coming, the job pays the bills and their individual situation stays the same or improves. Fortunately for National more than 50% of ppl in this country are in that boat. They do not really care what some 26 year old punk may or may not have been taping on a dictaphone in the deep south. :)

And that is the sad part really - people don't care about honesty and integrity anymore.
Shonkey used to say 'the public don't care' and he got away with some amazing stuff.

To Bills credit he just doesn't look as comfortable lying as Shonkey did.
But he still lies!

[BlackPeter]

In that case vote Labour, since our party is meant to look like a cross-section of NZ's best.
...

Oh, I see - and I assume Labour uses the same principles to pick their leader, don't they :p? Cunliffe and Little being the cream of the cream, leaders of the best NZ society produces? EZ, don't make NZ smaller than it is ...

But I think you meant to say that Labour is meant to be a cross section of a particular group of NZ people, and hey, some of them are good and there are some not so good (as with any other party constituency). Labour's speciality is to pick the latter as leaders, though admittedly - sometimes they miss.

However - if they pick accidentally a good one (like Shearer), than they kick them out before lunch time ...

So yes - looks like National made a mistake in picking Todd Barclay as candidate - but at least they didn't promote him to party leader ;).

[blackcap]

Barclay already forgotten.. looks like Labour have been playing naughty boys:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/93955534/labour-party-brings-in-unpaid-overseas-students

[craic]

How many of these are you billeting, el Zorro?

[GTM 3442]

Regardless, it's National who are looking fairly shady at the moment. Bill English was complicit in a cover-up, and John Key as PM offered money from his own taxpayer slush fund to keep it quiet. Why was Todd Barclay so important to them in 2016?

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/06/20/35006/english-barclay

One of the laws of nature is that as the sun moves, so does the shade. I think it might be a law of politics too. Maybe even a law of human behavior.

[Bjauck]

Another record annual immigration level has been set. 72,000 extra people to house and provide infrastructure for. NZ citizen returnees equal NZers leaving.

On a per population basis, that would be equivalent to about a million immigants into the UK and 5 million immigrants into the USA. The USA actually had a legal migration level of about one million. What would the political pressures have been like in the US and the UK if they had experienced the scale of immigration that NZ has?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_the_United_States
http://business.scoop.co.nz/2017/06/22/record-new-arrivals-as-net-migration-tops-72000/

[winner69]

Another record annual immigration level has been set. 72,000 extra people to house and provide infrastructure for. NZ citizen returnees equal NZers leaving.

On a per population basis, that would be equivalent to about a million immigants into the UK and 5 million immigrants into the USA. The USA actually had a legal migration level of about one million. What would the political pressures have been like in the US and the UK if they had experienced the scale of immigration that NZ has?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_the_United_States
http://business.scoop.co.nz/2017/06/22/record-new-arrivals-as-net-migration-tops-72000/

You are sounding like a Labour spokesperson with that rant

[Bjauck]

You are sounding like a Labour spokesperson with that rant Rant? Really? I am neither apologist or spokes person for any party. It was a comparative observation and discussion point. fwiw, I am non-aligned and have not yet decided how I'll vote.

However I don't think Auckland housing and infrastructure is coping adequately for its existing population. If that coincides with Labour opinion, then so be it.

[winner69]

Rant? Really? I am neither apologist or spokes person for any party. It was a comparative observation and discussion point. fwiw, I am non-aligned and have not yet decided how I'll vote.

However I don't think Auckland housing and infrastructure is coping adequately for its existing population. If that coincides with Labour opinion, then so be it.

Sorry - just you were echoing the same words some Labour guy said the other day.

And yes a lot of stuff needs to be sorted in Auckland .....but it's been like that for a while and nobody seems to spend the necessary

[Bjauck]

Sorry - just you were echoing the same words some Labour guy said the other day.

And yes a lot of stuff needs to be sorted in Auckland .....but it's been like that for a while and nobody seems to spend the necessary oh ok. I don't always follow the thread or politics in general... I thought I was being more original than was actually the case it seems! Apologies for repetition.

Auckland issues have been in the too hard basket for a long time. Long term horizons have been needed for yonks for things ranging from sewerage to PT.

[elZorro]

How many of these are you billeting, el Zorro?

I wasn't going to run it past her indoors. A few are coming to Hamilton, where they will be well looked after.

https://thestandard.org.nz/barclay-cartooned/

[iceman]

Barclay already forgotten.. looks like Labour have been playing naughty boys:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/93955534/labour-party-brings-in-unpaid-overseas-students

Little brought in McCarten to fix Labour´s significant ills, against the wishes and approval of most senior MPs. It has turned out to be a disastrous appointment and has damaged Little rather than helping him. One of them is already gone, the other on his way out. Only a question of time. Would have happened already if Labour had a decent candidate to take over from him.

Also quite funny to see this, a Party making noises about stopping immigration of low skilled labour while at the same time partaking in slave labour itself.

[elZorro]

Little brought in McCarten to fix Labour´s significant ills, against the wishes and approval of most senior MPs. It has turned out to be a disastrous appointment and has damaged Little rather than helping him. One of them is already gone, the other on his way out. Only a question of time. Would have happened already if Labour had a decent candidate to take over from him.

Also quite funny to see this, a Party making noises about stopping immigration of low skilled labour while at the same time partaking in slave labour itself.

The party didn't do anything of the kind. Once Labour knew what was going on, it made immediate steps to sort it out.

Regarding immigration, we have yet another record for the 12 months to May 2017. NZers balanced themselves out.

http://www.landlords.co.nz/article/6179/migration-boom-continues?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+23+J une+2017

So National is determined to keep the whole charade going, at least until the election.

[blackcap]

The party didn't do anything of the kind. Once Labour knew what was going on, it made immediate steps to sort it out.
.

Don't make me laugh... you know that is a blatant lie. They knew full well what was going on, maybe Andrew Little did not but the party did. Labour are saying they knew nothing to save face and wriggle out of what could be a very messy legal position. Either way be it true or not... its perception that counts and most people I know know that Matt McCarten is the dirty politics arm of the Labour Party. I think Matt is synonymous with Lynton (albeit without the Sir :) )

[GTM 3442]

Or whoever will let him be P.M. And Labour/greens would just about have to, given that neither of their leaders is P.M material. Winnie would be in like a robber's dog if he could get P.M role. I wouldn't discount it.


Oh stop it fungus. You know as well as I do that Winston's angling to be the Governor General.

[Major von Tempsky]

I think the Left Whingers need to note a couple of things.

(1) the proportion of home ownership in NZ is about 60%. These home owners are secretly watching the increase in value of their property and in the secrecy of the ballot box they will be voting for the party that that will allow it to continue - National.
And as long as this proportion is 50 or more that will continue.

(2) the lesson of Christchurch which seems to have completely gone over Labour/Greens head.
After the earthquakes DOOM was forecast for Christchurch, not enough housing, not enough housing for the construction workers to rebuild Christchurch, huge inflation for Christchurch.
Didn't happen. The higher demand induced higher supply, and more temporary housing was erected. Now the peak has passed, some of the temporary housing has been taken away, rents are very reasonable compared to the North Island and property prices are reasonable compared to the North Island and the inflation hasn't happened. The peak of the rebuild has passed. And National will win the Party Vote for Christchurch again.

[fungus pudding]

Oh stop it fungus. You know as well as I do that Winston's angling to be the Governor General.

Yeah but he might fancy a stint as P.M. on the way.

[macduffy]

I think the Left Whingers need to note a couple of things.

(1) the proportion of home ownership in NZ is about 60%. These home owners are secretly watching the increase in value of their property and in the secrecy of the ballot box they will be voting for the party that that will allow it to continue - National.
And as long as this proportion is 50 or more that will continue.

(2) the lesson of Christchurch which seems to have completely gone over Labour/Greens head.
After the earthquakes DOOM was forecast for Christchurch, not enough housing, not enough housing for the construction workers to rebuild Christchurch, huge inflation for Christchurch.
Didn't happen. The higher demand induced higher supply, and more temporary housing was erected. Now the peak has passed, some of the temporary housing has been taken away, rents are very reasonable compared to the North Island and property prices are reasonable compared to the North Island and the inflation hasn't happened. The peak of the rebuild has passed. And National will win the Party Vote for Christchurch again.

I think we need to keep "the lesson of Christchurch" in perspective, major. How much demand has been reduced by emigration from the city? How much industry and commerce has relocated? How much has tourism been impacted and the number of tourists reduced? All these factors have acted to reduce pressure on housing. Nevertheless, I agree that National should win the party vote in Christchurch again.

[iceman]

I think the Left Whingers need to note a couple of things.

(1) the proportion of home ownership in NZ is about 60%. These home owners are secretly watching the increase in value of their property and in the secrecy of the ballot box they will be voting for the party that that will allow it to continue - National.
And as long as this proportion is 50 or more that will continue.

(2) the lesson of Christchurch which seems to have completely gone over Labour/Greens head.
After the earthquakes DOOM was forecast for Christchurch, not enough housing, not enough housing for the construction workers to rebuild Christchurch, huge inflation for Christchurch.
Didn't happen. The higher demand induced higher supply, and more temporary housing was erected. Now the peak has passed, some of the temporary housing has been taken away, rents are very reasonable compared to the North Island and property prices are reasonable compared to the North Island and the inflation hasn't happened. The peak of the rebuild has passed. And National will win the Party Vote for Christchurch again.

Too right MVT. There is a lot of misinformation being thrown about. Labour is running its election campaign on 2 main themes, housing afforadability and immigration.

The housing affordability as measured nationwide by the home mortgage affordability index is actually quite a bit lower now than it was when National took office, meaning houses on average are more affordable than 9 years ago. This is supported by much lower interest rates but also with much higher average annual household income which has grown (inflation adjusted) from $ 81,000 to $ 94,300 since 2008.
Of course Auckland is a special case but not so the rest of the country.

Immigration is also a bit debatable. While some Aucklanders and Labour are blaming high house prices solely on immigration, other parts of the country are pleading with the Government not to cut temporary immigration as the regions struggle to find workers. Federated Farmers, Horticulture NZ, Tourism NZ and now the Mayors in Canterbury are all calling for the Government not to cut immigration at the moment, to avoid slowing down the much needed economic activity/growth around the regions.

Despite the big numbers being reported in alarming headlines in the media with regard to immigration, it appears that many of these new immigrants are here temporarily for work and then return back to their home countries. This is best seen by the fact that in 2008-2009 NZ granted 46,100 residency permits and in 2016-2017 we granted 43,700 residency permits.

Is it possible that once again Labour are barking up the wrong tree ?

[Bjauck]

(1) the proportion of home ownership in NZ is about 60%. These home owners are secretly watching the increase in value of their property and in the secrecy of the ballot box they will be voting for the party that that will allow it to continue - National.
And as long as this proportion is 50 or more that will continue. ... I imagine many, if not most people, do vote for the party they think will benefit them most.

I think home ownership rates are still dropping but nationally it is still probably above 50%. Things are slowing in Auckland.

Some home-owners may see their children effectively shut out of buying a home unless they, as homeowners, remortgage their homes to help their children with a deposit. So the number of home owners who will be voting National may well be decreasing.

[Bjauck]

The housing affordability as measured nationwide by the home mortgage affordability index is actually quite a bit lower now than it was when National took office, meaning houses on average are more affordable than 9 years ago. This is supported by much lower interest rates but also with much higher average annual household income which has grown (inflation adjusted) from $ 81,000 to $ 94,300 since 2008.
Of course Auckland is a special case but not so the rest of the country...
With first home buyers, deposit affordability is particularly relevant. In recent years, I think the amount needed for a deposit for NZexAuck (as well as Auckland of course) has outstripped the increase in after-tax incomes. So saving for a deposit is becoming more difficult.

In the Auckland market:
First-time house buyers worst hit as house sales fall by 30%
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11881164

[artemis]

With first home buyers, deposit affordability is particularly relevant. In recent years, I think the amount needed for a deposit for NZexAuck (as well as Auckland of course) has outstripped the increase in after-tax incomes. So saving for a deposit is becoming more difficult........

That assumes that individual households can't increase their income and/or reduce their expenditure. Of course they can do both. Just one example, a second job or overtime for a couple of years esp for DINKs would be a huge help towards a deposit, even in Auckland.

[elZorro]

Corrin Dann and Paddy Gower both grilled the PM over the Todd Barclay debacle over the weekend. In what is increasingly expressed as Billsh*t, the Hon Bill English said he just said what was in his mind at the time, when asked if he'd heard from Todd directly about the tape.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/full-interview-said-in-my-mind-time-bill-english-defends-public-statements-todd-barclay-affair

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/shows/2017/06/interview-bill-english.html

He also looked pretty uncomfortable in both interviews and his eyes were darting around. Not a good start to the conference, where it's reported there was talk of uncosted tax cuts, when we all know the country is largely going backwards due to a lack of enough public capital investment and decent policy.

[BlackPeter]

Poor EZ - how desperate Labour must be to keep banging on something which is not even a storm in a teacup.

Wouldn't it be better to work on the log in Labour's eye? I guess really - how can anybody who is concerned about social issues (and I believe you are) support a party which circumvents our Labour laws and resources their campaign with slave labour paying foreign workers nothing for doing a 40 hour job?

https://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/nz-politics-daily-labour-calls-search-missing-million


Ah yes - and remind me - wasn't it Labour which proposed to lock anybody up who is accused of a sex crime, unless they can prove their innocence?

Boy, the party once called "grand" but now only "old" has issues ... don't waste your energy in focussing on fine-tuning a good government - better clean up your own mess and start to become at least a credible opposition party. Lots of work to do: Regaining some integrity, starting to listen to the people instead of preaching left wing ideology and picking a leader who can win might be a good start. I guess - how can anybody win an election who has not even the full support from their own party and caucus?

[Bjauck]

That assumes that individual households can't increase their income and/or reduce their expenditure. Of course they can do both. Just one example, a second job or overtime for a couple of years esp for DINKs would be a huge help towards a deposit, even in Auckland.That is irrelevant when measuring that house prices have increased at a pace that out-strips average incomes.

However you are right if people boosted their work hours to 60 hours a week today, then deposits may be as affordable as they were fifteen years when people only had to work for 40 hours a week!

Of course if they are not already working to the limit, people could try to increase the hours they work to try to save the increasing amount needed for a deposit. Although I guess this has always happened through the decades when people have been saving for a deposit. They could become a ménage à trois to get a third earner to help save for a deposit too.

[craic]

The suggestions, that Winston wants to be Prime Minister or Governor General are wrong. Since the announcement by Prince Harry, that most Royals are reluctant to take the top job, Winston has raised his sights and is now studying the prospect of becoming Queen. You will soon begin to notice a marked change in his accent, makeup and hairstyle. He has Little lined up as a pageboy.

[BlackPeter]

The suggestions, that Winston wants to be Prime Minister or Governor General are wrong. Since the announcement by Prince Harry, that most Royals are reluctant to take the top job, Winston has raised his sights and is now studying the prospect of becoming Queen. You will soon begin to notice a marked change in his accent, makeup and hairstyle. He has Little lined up as a pageboy.

LOL - this post made my day :laugh:!

Do you expect that the taxpayer needs to fork out for his (oops - her) gender change or will this be funded by the party?

[artemis]

That is irrelevant when measuring that house prices have increased at a pace that out-strips average incomes.

However you are right if people boosted their work hours to 60 hours a week today, then deposits may be as affordable as they were fifteen years when people only had to work for 40 hours a week!

Of course if they are not already working to the limit, people could try to increase the hours they work to try to save the increasing amount needed for a deposit. Although I guess this has always happened through the decades when people have been saving for a deposit. They could become a ménage à trois to get a third earner to help save for a deposit too.

There will always be people who whinge and moan and find excuses to do not much. And then there are those who knuckle down and get on with it.

[Bjauck]

There will always be people who whinge and moan and find excuses to do not much. And then there are those who knuckle down and get on with it....sure and there are those that ignore the scale of a current issue...or perhaps dismissing it as mainly a Jaffa problem...

[Blackrose]

There are some that want The Nats to win so that they can "eat the rat" that is a collapsing housing market and economic ****e storm that's looming on the horizon.

There are some that honestly think that it's a "winter thing" and the realty people are panicking and it's business as per usual no big deal who cares who's in charge so long as hubby's still working and I get my 2 weeks in Rarotonga with the Spa treatments and the wax treatments and I don't have to worry about the kid's private school fees.

There are some that are seething under a National government - they didn't fix the bloody roads, or housing there are homeless people everywhere, the Barclay thing, anything that John Campbell and RNZ say, and needing a few more kale salads and Lululemon Athletica pants from Ponsonby road.

There are some that will always vote for Winnie as he got us the gold card. Blue team as we love Rodgernomics and can't seem to make the connection between why they don't have grandchildren yet, and their 20 somethings grandchild that has racked up over $100,000 at Elim doing a fine arts degree, eating a crap load of anti-anxiety meds too...

Then there are some that have returned home after finding Australia to farken hard. Pissed at the Nat govt for not sticking up for them in Australia for the last few years. Screw you Blue team.

Then there's some aging retiree that's - Oh well I've always voted Blue team. Since 1970.

Politics eh?

From a JAFFA. (and happy to be one.)

[iceman]

There are some that want The Nats to win so that they can "eat the rat" that is a collapsing housing market and economic ****e storm that's looming on the horizon.

There are some that honestly think that it's a "winter thing" and the realty people are panicking and it's business as per usual no big deal who cares who's in charge so long as hubby's still working and I get my 2 weeks in Rarotonga with the Spa treatments and the wax treatments and I don't have to worry about the kid's private school fees.

There are some that are seething under a National government - they didn't fix the bloody roads, or housing there are homeless people everywhere, the Barclay thing, anything that John Campbell and RNZ say, and needing a few more kale salads and Lululemon Athletica pants from Ponsonby road.

There are some that will always vote for Winnie as he got us the gold card. Blue team as we love Rodgernomics and can't seem to make the connection between why they don't have grandchildren yet, and their 20 somethings grandchild that has racked up over $100,000 at Elim doing a fine arts degree, eating a crap load of anti-anxiety meds too...

Then there are some that have returned home after finding Australia to farken hard. Pissed at the Nat govt for not sticking up for them in Australia for the last few years. Screw you Blue team.

Then there's some aging retiree that's - Oh well I've always voted Blue team. Since 1970.

Politics eh?

From a JAFFA. (and happy to be one.)

And then there is EZ and his likes of hardcore Labour supporters which fail to see how utterly useless Labour and its Leader are and as a consequence, fail to provide the voting public with a realistic alternative. So the " Blue Team" will prevail !!

[Bjauck]

Politics eh?

From a JAFFA. (and happy to be one.) Hehe...I like your voter roundup. How would you describe those idealist folks thinking of voting for Morgan's TOP?

[elZorro]

And then there is EZ and his likes of hardcore Labour supporters which fail to see how utterly useless Labour and its Leader are and as a consequence, fail to provide the voting public with a realistic alternative. So the " Blue Team" will prevail !!

That's a bit off, Iceman. From my point of view National has had long enough to show some real leadership with policy, and have failed in many areas. Climate change, tax changes, R&D push, growing a stronger economy, housing/immigration, rail, and I could go on.

In contrast, if you could just cast your mind back to the previous nine years when the Labour team brought through some of the best policies we have seen in a long time (most still in place), growing the economy, reducing inequality, and paying off most of a big old crown debt as well.

The data is all there at Stats NZ - Labour did a great job, National wouldn't even have a pass mark. They cruised, they didn't do their homework in general, they tried cheating more often than not (handouts to mates, lobbyists and top tier hangers-on).

You won't see how good a Labour-Green team could be until they are back in power, hopefully just three months to go.

[fungus pudding]

That's a bit off, Iceman. From my point of view National has had long enough to show some real leadership with policy, and have failed in many areas. Climate change, tax changes, R&D push, growing a stronger economy, housing/immigration, rail, and I could go on.

In contrast, if you could just cast your mind back to the previous nine years when the Labour team brought through some of the best policies we have seen in a long time (most still in place), growing the economy, reducing inequality, and paying off most of a big old crown debt as well.

The data is all there at Stats NZ - Labour did a great job, National wouldn't even have a pass mark. They cruised, they didn't do their homework in general, they tried cheating more often than not (handouts to mates, lobbyists and top tier hangers-on).

You won't see how good a Labour-Green team could be until they are back in power, hopefully just three months to go.

By the sound of that eZ they should be easy to beat - but they're not. Doesn't that tell you how useless the main opposition party is? So are Labour and the Greens.

[Blackrose]

Well Iceman, (Sorry I had to giggle - Top Gun, really? Nah it's old school cool.)

Oddly there are a few people that are not happy with the Blue Team for x reasons. The biggest one is housing. The next land mine will be underemployment and a lack of credible metrics for job growth. Blue Team are on the hook for this. When an academic, interviewed on the topic of cyber bulling and they start talking about how Paula Bennett is such a focus for vitriol on social media, especially facebook you gotta wonder just how much voter anger there is out there.

Bjauck, Who are our TOP voters.

They gotta be odd balls. People that relate to Garth Morgan - aka guy who wants to kill all the cats...

Well that's gotta be the 30 year old man still living at home in the garage, playing world of warcraft and growing a beard that's past his collar bones?

[iceman]

Well Iceman, (Sorry I had to giggle - Top Gun, really? Nah it's old school cool.)

Oddly there are a few people that are not happy with the Blue Team for x reasons. The biggest one is housing. The next land mine will be underemployment and a lack of credible metrics for job growth. Blue Team are on the hook for this. When an academic, interviewed on the topic of cyber bulling and they start talking about how Paula Bennett is such a focus for vitriol on social media, especially facebook you gotta wonder just how much voter anger there is out there.

Bjauck, Who are our TOP voters.

They gotta be odd balls. People that relate to Garth Morgan - aka guy who wants to kill all the cats...

Well that's gotta be the 30 year old man still living at home in the garage, playing world of warcraft and growing a beard that's past his collar bones?

Now that we know all that, we shall watch the only poll that matters with interest in September and see how it turns out. Of course there are many people not happy with a Government that's been there for 9 years. Anything else would be odd. The issue,as has been discussed on here at length should you wish to read a few pages back, is the lack of credible alternative.

Suggest you read some of Morgan's policies, don't think they're only about killing cats ! That particular private issue of his was about protecting birds, not killing cats. No idea what you're going on about Top Gun. Have never watched it so can't comment !

EZ,hope I didn't offend you with my earlier comment. Was just tongue in cheek :-)

[iceman]

Today Andrew Little admits the slave labour scheme was indeed being run by McCarten while he was the head of Labour's Auckland office and they no longer are on speaking terms. And a Labour councl member steps down for his role with the scheme. Little also says Labour likely has to pick up the bill.

I hope posters on here are no longer saying this program had nothing to do with the Labour Party. It is 100% responsible for this (possibly illegal) mess.

[elZorro]

Today Andrew Little admits the slave labour scheme was indeed being run by McCarten while he was the head of Labour's Auckland office and they no longer are on speaking terms. And a Labour councl member steps down for his role with the scheme. Little also says Labour likely has to pick up the bill.

I hope posters on here are no longer saying this program had nothing to do with the Labour Party. It is 100% responsible for this (possibly illegal) mess.

And true Labour people will sort it out. The students are now being billeted all around NZ and should have a much better experience from here on. So this issue should resolve fairly quickly for Labour.

National have to cope with the fallout from the police case against Barclay being opened again. I'm sure that the tape or recording will be long destroyed by now, which is probably why Bill was mentioning so often, that a case has not been proved. But in this event, Bill went and sent a text, he documented the existence of a recording. Not too smart. John would never have sent a text. So thanks Bill, on behalf of the Labour Party.. (or maybe Bill is indeed trying to be honest sometimes).