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BlackPeter
07-08-2017, 09:22 AM
Kelvin's name calling of Nats not positive

Needs reining in does Kelvin

good cop, bad cop? I guess if Jacinda is really better than the average Labour leader, than the party clearly needed to compensate by installing a braindead attack dog as number 2. They are just honest and want to let us know that nothing has changed ....

Here is what Kelvin threw up:

"We have got Jonathan Coleman the doctor of death, we have got Steven Joyce who is as authentic as a $4 Rolex, we've got Gerry Brownlee who has got the energy of a small hill, we've got Simon Bridges - the only person under 80 who still buys Brylcreem, and Judith Collins, look her stare caused that ice shelf in Antarctica to crack off and float away."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11899387

elZorro
07-08-2017, 09:57 AM
good cop, bad cop? I guess if Jacinda is really better than the average Labour leader, than the party clearly needed to compensate by installing a braindead attack dog as number 2. They are just honest and want to let us know that nothing has changed ....

Here is what Kelvin threw up:



http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11899387

I think that was just a hilarious use of hyperbowl (Hyperbole - Paula style). They say that good humour has an element of truth.

BlackPeter
07-08-2017, 10:26 AM
I think that was just a hilarious use of hyperbowl (Hyperbole - Paula style). They say that good humour has an element of truth.

If you consider his repulsive comments as humour, than I don't think that there are a lot of people in the political centre sharing it. And remember - Labour / Green won't win if they don't gain traction to win some political middle ground.

But it is good for our centre right government that Labour is showing through Kelvin their true colours ... as long as people like him speak for Labour I am pretty sure we will be safe from a watermelon government;)

Labors braindead deputy who can't control his hate is for National a gift which will keep on giving ...

Long may he stick in this position - he is a great example for Peters principle ...

winner69
07-08-2017, 10:39 AM
If you consider his repulsive comments as humour, than I don't think that there are a lot of people in the political centre sharing it. And remember - Labour / Green won't win if they don't gain traction to win some political middle ground.

But it is good for our centre right government that Labour is showing through Kelvin their true colours ... as long as people like him speak for Labour I am pretty sure we will be safe from a watermelon government;)

Labors braindead deputy who can't control his hate is for National a gift which will keep on giving ...

Long may he stick in this position - he is a great example for Peters principle ...

The more his opponents lambast Corbyn the higher Labour go in the polls (in UK)

Jacinda needs to rein in Kelvin - keep smiling and keep it clean

Joshuatree
07-08-2017, 11:02 AM
If you consider his repulsive comments as humour, than I don't think that there are a lot of people in the political centre sharing it. And remember - Labour / Green won't win if they don't gain traction to win some political middle ground.

But it is good for our centre right government that Labour is showing through Kelvin their true colours ... as long as people like him speak for Labour I am pretty sure we will be safe from a watermelon government;)

Labors braindead deputy who can't control his hate is for National a gift which will keep on giving ...

Long may he stick in this position - he is a great example for Peters principle ...


Never a truer word said in jest.:t_up: he is so right about the underperformance of many of nationals ministers, they cannot hide from this fiddling incompetence.

Major von Tempsky
07-08-2017, 11:43 AM
But the leopard doesn't change its spots or the Jacinda Ardern her DNA.

She still has a very thin CV, a thin degree, no book to her name - most prominent leaders write a book of some sort. and has merely recycled old Labour policy rather than creating, developing and persuading with some new stuff of her own.

Where's the excitement? Do you vote for a leader on a full set of buck teeth?

dobby41
07-08-2017, 12:26 PM
Where's the excitement? Do you vote for a leader on a full set of buck teeth?

Or the ugly one with the big nose?

fungus pudding
07-08-2017, 01:38 PM
Or the ugly one with the big nose?


Who'zat ?
.

BlackPeter
07-08-2017, 03:30 PM
The more his opponents lambast Corbyn the higher Labour go in the polls (in UK)

Jacinda needs to rein in Kelvin - keep smiling and keep it clean

Well, yes - but Corbyn lost the election, didn't he?

Not sure whether we agree that Labour should muzzle Kelvin. Quite the opposite - they should leave him off the leash: very amusing, and every time he speaks his mind, Labour will lose another percent or so of the vote. :t_up: I guess he is the living example for Labours incredibly limited talent pool, for their lack of control and discipline and for their bad judgement (turning this clown into a deputy).

I think the problem of our Left is that they underestimate the electorate. A very dangerous thing to do .... most New Zealand voters are decent hard working individuals and show good judgement - as evidenced by the outcome of the last 3 elections :p.

winner69
07-08-2017, 03:39 PM
Well, yes - but Corbyn lost the election, didn't he?

Not sure whether we agree that Labour should muzzle Kelvin. Quite the opposite - they should leave him off the leash: very amusing, and every time he speaks his mind, Labour will lose another percent or so of the vote. :t_up: I guess he is the living example for Labours incredibly limited talent pool, for their lack of control and discipline and for their bad judgement (turning this clown into a deputy).

I think the problem of our Left is that they underestimate the electorate. A very dangerous thing to do .... most New Zealand voters are decent hard working individuals and show good judgement - as evidenced by the outcome of the last 3 elections :p.

That's why I'm worried about Joshua and his current love affair with Jacinda - how's he going to cope when Jacinda / Labour only come second even though they might get a resounding increase inbthevtotal vote ......just like poor old jeremy

Labour UK higher in the polls than on election day but still not the government

dobby41
07-08-2017, 03:51 PM
Labour UK higher in the pools than no election days but still not the government

You might want to edit that.

westerly
07-08-2017, 03:54 PM
If you consider his repulsive comments as humour, than I don't think that there are a lot of people in the political centre sharing it. And remember - Labour / Green won't win if they don't gain traction to win some political middle ground.

But it is good for our centre right government that Labour is showing through Kelvin their true colours ... as long as people like him speak for Labour I am pretty sure we will be safe from a watermelon government;)

Labors braindead deputy who can't control his hate is for National a gift which will keep on giving ...

Long may he stick in this position - he is a great example for Peters principle ...

ACT leader David Seymour describes former Education Minister Hekia Parata in his book as a "frenetic, grandiloquent diva" who "sings her way through speeches".

And this about a member of a friendly party. But of course this is only aimiable repartee.

Seymour is the leader of a very minor party whose policies could best be described as "survival of the fittest "
Do I detect more than a whiff of panic on the right ? History may repeat for boring Bill whose handling of the Barclay affair has supposedly angered many in his party who feel Barclay was poorly treated.
Hanging on to Nick and then we have Judith smoldering away somewhere down the list.
Interesting times on the right.

westerly

fungus pudding
07-08-2017, 04:09 PM
ACT leader David Seymour describes former Education Minister Hekia Parata in his book as a "frenetic, grandiloquent diva" who "sings her way through speeches".

And this about a member of a friendly party. But of course this is only aimiable repartee.

Seymour is the leader of a very minor party whose policies could best be described as "survival of the fittest "
Do I detect more than a whiff of panic on the right ? History may repeat for boring Bill whose handling of the Barclay affair has supposedly angered many in his party who feel Barclay was poorly treated.
Hanging on to Nick and then we have Judith smoldering away somewhere down the list.
Interesting times on the right.

westerly

How long will Jacinda and Kelvin tolerate each other?

Joshuatree
07-08-2017, 05:22 PM
From stuff. Messier and messier
"Two Green MPs quit after co-leader Metiria Turei refused to resign after she admitted lying to obtain a benefit.
Kennedy Graham and David Clendon made the threat to quit in protest on Monday afternoon. It is understood their resignations were accepted."

westerly
07-08-2017, 05:44 PM
How long will Jacinda and Kelvin tolerate each other?

What's your point?

westerly

fungus pudding
07-08-2017, 05:55 PM
What's your point?

westerly

Just a question. Do you know the answer?

tim23
07-08-2017, 06:07 PM
450 txts - John Key got away with "I don't recall" for 9 years but Bills got a big problem and 36% of National voters don't trust him

boysy
07-08-2017, 06:55 PM
This is going to play out slowly for max effect if winnie really does have the text log. Paddy Gower isn't going to let this one go either ...

Major von Tempsky
07-08-2017, 07:23 PM
Paddy Gower is as scatty as a nail bomb. If Wiinie really does have the text log he shouldn't have and he should be prosecuted if he does.
Move on.

elZorro
07-08-2017, 08:17 PM
Just been to a campaign meeting for our electorate. 48 new people want to help with our campaign - this is all since Jacinda became leader a few days ago.

tim23
07-08-2017, 08:20 PM
You Tories are hurting start with prosecuting Barclay then English then you can think about Peters the tide has turned as it eventually does.
Paddy Gower is as scatty as a nail bomb. If Wiinie really does have the text log he shouldn't have and he should be prosecuted if he does.
Move on.

fungus pudding
07-08-2017, 09:40 PM
Just been to a campaign meeting for our electorate. 48 new people want to help with our campaign - this is all since Jacinda became leader a few days ago.

That's fantastic eZ. So happy for you.

fungus pudding
07-08-2017, 09:41 PM
You Tories are hurting start with prosecuting Barclay then English then you can think about Peters the tide has turned as it eventually does.

Is that a sentence or what?

iceman
07-08-2017, 10:15 PM
The more his opponents lambast Corbyn the higher Labour go in the polls (in UK)

Jacinda needs to rein in Kelvin - keep smiling and keep it clean

BUt as BP said, he still lost. More importantly, he has a large number of MPs within his party that don't support him and know and openly admit they can't implement his promises. I hope Jacinda doesn't copy him although I suspect she will with unaffordable promises. But this campaign sure is getting interesting with a new Labour leader and The Greens organisation in meltdown and unfit for Government.

fungus pudding
08-08-2017, 04:08 AM
But this campaign sure is getting interesting with a new Labour leader and The Greens organisation in meltdown and unfit for Government.

Nothing new about either point.

BlackPeter
08-08-2017, 07:05 AM
...
Do I detect more than a whiff of panic on the right ?
...
westerly

Well, yes - you are right - the Green party is melting down and in crisis mode and Jacinda had to do an awful lot of damage control this morning on National radio. I guess she just should have said - "look at the bright side, we now know that the Green Party has still 2 MP's with integrity", but she didn't. Apparently it is now not any longer about the failings of individual politicians, but about the future of the country. Funny how fast Labours focus can change (remember Kelvins ramblings?) - I wonder, why?

westerly, the other thing which surprised me is that you call the Greens "right", but this probably says more about you than about the Greens. While the Green movement internationally makes a lot of valid points, the NZ Green party is clearly not right, but they are wrong :p.

Joshuatree
08-08-2017, 09:26 AM
Also on national radio this morning, an early hint of new polling suggesting labour and NZ First would have enough to govern; if so thats an amazing shift.

winner69
08-08-2017, 10:44 AM
James Shaw keeping a low profile these days

World imploding around the Greens and with Jacinda on fire Greens going below 10% I reckon

James needed to step up ......and he hasn't

Dismal failure I reckon

Disappointing

tim23
08-08-2017, 05:26 PM
Its an "or what" should have clarified for you. QUOTE=fungus pudding;677321]Is that a sentence or what?[/QUOTE]

westerly
08-08-2017, 06:29 PM
Well, yes - you are right - the Green party is melting down and in crisis mode and Jacinda had to do an awful lot of damage control this morning on National radio. I guess she just should have said - "look at the bright side, we now know that the Green Party has still 2 MP's with integrity", but she didn't. Apparently it is now not any longer about the failings of individual politicians, but about the future of the country. Funny how fast Labours focus can change (remember Kelvins ramblings?) - I wonder, why?

westerly, the other thing which surprised me is that you call the Greens "right", but this probably says more about you than about the Greens. While the Green movement internationally makes a lot of valid points, the NZ Green party is clearly not right, but they are wrong :p.

Signs of desperation in that reply. Mind you the two who resigned, on appearances, looked more suited to a conservative party.

westerly

Joshuatree
08-08-2017, 09:19 PM
36% of national voters have lost trust in bill

English says texts to Barclay staffer deleted "I've got no record of them," the Prime Minister says. (http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/08/bill-english-says-barclay-texts-have-been-deleted.html)

Joshuatree
08-08-2017, 09:27 PM
Patrick Gower: Bill English in shutdown mode over Todd Barclay texts (http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/08/patrick-gower-bill-english-in-shutdown-mode-over-todd-barclay-texts.html)

dobby41
09-08-2017, 06:38 AM
Patrick Gower: Bill English in shutdown mode over Todd Barclay texts (http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/08/patrick-gower-bill-english-in-shutdown-mode-over-todd-barclay-texts.html)

Shonkey was so much better at shutting stuff down.

elZorro
09-08-2017, 06:59 AM
Jacinda and Kelvin's first press conference was amazing, not the least because of a powerful demonstration of Te Reo in action.

But there were other very good reasons for putting Kelvin Davis in the Deputy Leader position.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/95406807/kelvin-davis-promotion-to-deputy-leader-will-appeal-to-both-maori-and-pakeha-voters

BlackPeter
09-08-2017, 09:16 AM
Signs of desperation in that reply. Mind you the two who resigned, on appearances, looked more suited to a conservative party.

westerly

It took you a whole day to come up with this response? Looks pretty desperate to me :D.

The two MP's leaving the Greenies belong both to the founders of the Green party at a time when the party still had principles and was concerned about the environment. Kennedy Graham was the MP who managed to achieve across party consensus on climate change in NZ parliament. No mean feat.

I guess what's left is a bunch of hypocrites without principles and happy to not just condoning benefit fraud, but even prepared to use that very act as election stunt. Pretty sad that a party calling itself "Green" is more concerned about covering their own ar..s than standing for the good of the country including supporting lawful behaviour.

I can see westerly, why you would want to support the so called "green" benefit fraud party (desperation is a good word) - but if you think that Turia proudly boasting about breaking the law will bring you the long desired victory of the extreme Left, than I think you underestimate the majority of the New Zealand voters.

Time will tell. It is certainly an interesting campaign, but I think that most people will prefer to end up with a boring, reliable and competent National led government instead of having to live for the next 3 years in "interesting times", though admittedly - highly unlikely a Mana / Green / Labour / Winston First coalition would hold that long.

Ah yes - and just another question - didn't Jacinda exclude anyway to work together with Winston? Where would you see the numbers for the Left anyway? Is this the sweet scent of delusion in the air?

fungus pudding
09-08-2017, 09:40 AM
Jacinda and Kelvin's first press conference was amazing, not the least because of a powerful demonstration of Te Reo in action.

Yes eZ. Totally amazing. Captivating.

But there were other very good reasons for putting Kelvin Davis in the Deputy Leader position.

Yes, yes. Of course there were.



What a wonderful press conference. Perhaps the best ever in the history of NZ politics.

Major von Tempsky
09-08-2017, 10:57 AM
The best reason for putting Kelvin there is that he rolls over and wags his tail for Jacinda and shuts up when she tells him to!

elZorro
09-08-2017, 12:27 PM
What a wonderful press conference. Perhaps the best ever in the history of NZ politics.

Yes it was - because right there - the public mood changed. That was the point in time when the National Govt was confirmed to be on the way out.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11897447

fungus pudding
09-08-2017, 12:35 PM
Yes it was - because right there - the public mood changed. That was the point in time when the National Govt was confirmed to be on the way out.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11897447

Exactly eZ. Might as well cancel the election right now.

winner69
09-08-2017, 12:59 PM
Exactly eZ. Might as well cancel the election right now.

No, can't cancel

Need to work out whether Labour gets 60 seats or 70 seats ....or more

fungus pudding
09-08-2017, 01:51 PM
No, can't cancel

Need to work out whether Labour gets 60 seats or 70 seats ....or more

Just give them the lot. No opposition needed. After all National haven't had any for 9 years.

BlackPeter
09-08-2017, 02:21 PM
Just give them the lot. No opposition needed. After all National haven't had any for 9 years.

classic ... :t_up:

fungus pudding
09-08-2017, 02:31 PM
classic ... :t_up:

Just read this, Labour's mantra, in an online letter.

'If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. If it stops moving, subsidize it.'

Seems about right. Jacinda is on to the first bit already - fuel tax, amount to be announced, CGT, details not yet announced, water tax, amount to be worked out with users later. That's week one.

dobby41
09-08-2017, 04:12 PM
No opposition needed. After all National haven't had any for 9 years.

Why haven't they gotten anything done then?
The RMA was a big one - stalled isn't it?

fungus pudding
09-08-2017, 04:24 PM
The wicked witch has gone. I predict the new co leader will be a woman

fungus pudding
09-08-2017, 04:53 PM
Could someone get eZs heart pills ready. Labour up into the mid 30s.

tim23
09-08-2017, 05:07 PM
Check the Newshub poll the Adern effect is in play!

jonu
09-08-2017, 05:27 PM
Check the Newshub poll the Adern effect is in play!

But not at the expense of the right.

elZorro
09-08-2017, 05:39 PM
Could someone get eZs heart pills ready. Labour up into the mid 30s.

At the expense of National, but also NZFirst, and the Greens. What about Jacinda's preferred PM numbers, she's close to Bill's now.

Sorry to see Metiria stepping down today, though. The media is very tough.

jonu
09-08-2017, 05:49 PM
At the expense of National, but also NZFirst, and the Greens. What about Jacinda's preferred PM numbers, she's close to Bill's now.

Sorry to see Metiria stepping down today, though. The media is very tough.

The media El Z? I think she dug her own hole and a bigger one for her party. I'd have the same view no matter what party she was in.

elZorro
09-08-2017, 06:05 PM
The media El Z? I think she dug her own hole and a bigger one for her party. I'd have the same view no matter what party she was in.

Her number one reason for stepping down is the scrutiny her family has been facing recently. Next, her view that as she's been working for the Greens for 15 years, the best thing she can do now in the lead-up is to step aside from the co-leadership, and get the press off their backs. She will retire from parliament after the elections, and is off the GP list. That's a really big price to pay.

Here is the newshub poll data, also the leaked UMR poll data has Labour on 36%, National on 43%, this is more like it!


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11901065

Bill says he's not worried.

fungus pudding
09-08-2017, 06:06 PM
At the expense of National, but also NZFirst, and the Greens. What about Jacinda's preferred PM numbers, she's close to Bill's now.

Sorry to see Metiria stepping down today, though. The media is very tough.

What in earth has her demise got to do with the media? Surely they do no more than report the daily news. You're losing it eZ. Have a kit Kat.

winner69
09-08-2017, 06:18 PM
What in earth has her demise got to do with the media? Surely they do no more than report the daily news. You're losing it eZ. Have a kit Kat.

Apparently Checkpoint asked her a series of written questions .....too hard to answer ....and she resigned

jonu
09-08-2017, 06:18 PM
Her number one reason for stepping down is the scrutiny her family has been facing recently. Next, her view that as she's been working for the Greens for 15 years, the best thing she can do now in the lead-up is to step aside from the co-leadership, and get the press off their backs. She will retire from parliament after the elections, and is off the GP list. That's a really big price to pay.

Here is the newshub poll data, also the leaked UMR poll data has Labour on 36%, National on 43%, this is more like it!


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11901065

Bill says he's not worried.

She "says" her number one reason is her family. Big price to pay? She'll be on a handsome parliamentiary pension and get free airfares for the rest of her days. The only ones to emerge with any integrity are the two who resigned earlier. Do you think they would want to go back and taint themselves with the rest of the sordid bunch? The rest still tacitly defend her criminal acts of benefit and electoral fraud. It's a sorry mess that Labour will benefit from

minimoke
09-08-2017, 06:24 PM
Her number one reason for stepping down is the scrutiny her family has been facing recently.
That is the no one reason she is telling you. Nothing to do with the poll result of course. Nothing to do with the overwhelming public backlash of a to a self serving benifit fraudster. Nothing to do with the demise of 2 Green stalwarts - the only ones to show any kind of moral backbone. Nothing to do with potential revelations that the fathers family actually contributed to her wellbeing. Nothing to do with her poverty and nothing obviously to do with her feathring her own nest at the tax payer expense. Nothing at all to do with absolute inability to accept that what she has done wrong and the very first thing Joe Public want (no matter who you are or what you stand for) is that acceptance.

Joshuatree
09-08-2017, 06:34 PM
Those two green stalwarts unfortunately stuffed it up for the Greens; if theyd been patient, negotiated; given it a bit of time, but no they had to make an ultimatum, custers last stand and thats that now they have to lie in their self righteous beds alone and impotent; a bit amateur unfortunately. Politics yuck.

JBmurc
09-08-2017, 06:44 PM
Me think's "Elzorro" labour lead Gov will finally come true //// along with NZF/GN ....oh god help NZ .......
Primary industries will certainly pay but at the same time the NZD will drop like a stone >> might well be the catalyst for NZ property Bust from Higher loan rates and attack on landlords

jonu
09-08-2017, 06:46 PM
Those two green stalwarts unfortunately stuffed it up for the Greens; if theyd been patient, negotiated; given it a bit of time, but no they had to make an ultimatum, custers last stand and thats that now they have to lie in their self righteous beds alone and impotent; a bit amateur unfortunately. Politics yuck.

Perhaps they decided their ethics weren't up for negotiation. That is the time you do make an ultimatum. It's not being self righteous, it's about holding true to what you believe. The yuck part would have been exactly down the route you recommend.

Joshuatree
09-08-2017, 06:49 PM
They were up for negotiation; thats the silly thing; just had to wait little while. foolish.

tim23
09-08-2017, 06:51 PM
National lowest rating in same poll for 10 years trouble ahead me feels
At the expense of National, but also NZFirst, and the Greens. What about Jacinda's preferred PM numbers, she's close to Bill's now.

Sorry to see Metiria stepping down today, though. The media is very tough.

Major von Tempsky
09-08-2017, 07:13 PM
National lowest rating in same poll for 10 years trouble ahead me feels

EZ is a bit weak on the numbers side, Labour's gain was clearly mostly at the expense of the Greens.

It's also intuitive, people will easily move between the two left wing parties but not from National to Labour.

winner69
09-08-2017, 07:16 PM
Was the election tonight and I missed it?

Joshuatree
09-08-2017, 07:20 PM
:t_up:Its all on winner and the national supporters are not handling it very gracefully atp.

Baa_Baa
09-08-2017, 08:04 PM
:t_up:Its all on winner and the national supporters are not handling it very gracefully atp.

National supporters may be less concerned than you think, it's about who will govern next and Labour just decimated their coalition partner, because the Greens shot theselves in the foot. Nothing Labour did for themselves. The Jacinda effect will wane as the weeks go by, she will grapple with policy and alienate the majority as has her predecessors.

Joshuatree
09-08-2017, 08:08 PM
Thats what you want; reality i hope will be different.As i said its all on;)

tim23
09-08-2017, 08:22 PM
Thats a bit selective Labour up from 24 to 33 Greens down but not 9 points Labour are on the rise and you may have noticed so is Jacinda!
National supporters may be less concerned than you think, it's about who will govern next and Labour just decimated their coalition partner, because the Greens shot theselves in the foot. Nothing Labour did for themselves. The Jacinda effect will wane as the weeks go by, she will grapple with policy and alienate the majority as has her predecessors.

jonu
09-08-2017, 08:28 PM
Thats a bit selective Labour up from 24 to 33 Greens down but not 9 points Labour are on the rise and you may have noticed so is Jacinda!

Tim...did National drop much? It looks like Labour picked up from the Greens and some from NZ First and maybe a few previously undecided. I really don't see a turning tide here. Yes Jacinda is up as preferred PM, which is impressive but surely also superficial. As far as I'm aware she has no experience of management. I wouldn't want her in charge in an international crisis, let alone the hurly burly of national politics.

tim23
09-08-2017, 08:32 PM
Not much quite right but according to Patrick Gower crucially below 45% - you can't speculate that Jacinda couldn't handle a crisis - Key did okay and all he managed was other peoples money

jonu
09-08-2017, 08:39 PM
Not much quite right but according to Patrick Gower crucially below 45% - you can't speculate that Jacinda couldn't handle a crisis - Key did okay and all he managed was other peoples money

I can speculate it Tim...and I suspect a large proportion of the electorate will as well.

fungus pudding
09-08-2017, 08:52 PM
I can speculate it Tim...and I suspect a large proportion of the electorate will as well.


None of it matters much. It looks like it will be Winston's decision.

artemis
10-08-2017, 06:40 AM
The previous Labour leaders were IMO all competent from a policy point of view. Politics is a tough gig though. Ms Ardern is doing well so far, but she will need to show continued policy leadership to retain Labour's poll bounce until the election.

dobby41
10-08-2017, 06:54 AM
What in earth has her demise got to do with the media? Surely they do no more than report the daily news. You're losing it eZ. Have a kit Kat.
Are you that naive? I'm not talking about 'fake' media but media decide what becomes important. If they don't report it it didn't happen for most people.
Sure there are many sources but most still get from the mainstream media.


Me think's "Elzorro" labour lead Gov will finally come true //// along with NZF/GN ....oh god help NZ .......
Primary industries will certainly pay but at the same time the NZD will drop like a stone >> might well be the catalyst for NZ property Bust from Higher loan rates and attack on landlords
Why do those on the right always predict economic doom and gloom from a left govt? Labour left the country, after 9 years, with more money and less debt then the right have now. There were less people who felt left out of the supposed boom we have now.


As far as I'm aware she has no experience of management. I wouldn't want her in charge in an international crisis, let alone the hurly burly of national politics.

Shonkey was a gambler but that's OK. You have no idea really.

craic
10-08-2017, 09:21 AM
John Key may have been a gambler but some of us are good at that sort of thing. Right now I'm sitting in a nice hotel in Singapore (here for their National Day Celebrations and to catch a cruise ship) and I can pay for this from my "gambling" on the market. Labour will try to gamble with my money to retain popularity and continue to live the good life off my pocket as all politicians do.

dobby41
10-08-2017, 09:37 AM
Labour will try to gamble with my money to retain popularity and continue to live the good life off my pocket as all politicians do.

And National isn't? Open your eyes man.
How many new bridges were Northland promised? Some they said they didn't need.
A long time saying that there wasn't a problam in Auckland and suddenly there is and they have the answer.
Good lord man - what world do you live in?

I don't really have a side so don't suffer a lot of 'confirmation bias'.

westerly
10-08-2017, 10:47 AM
It took you a whole day to come up with this response? Looks pretty desperate to me :D.

The two MP's leaving the Greenies belong both to the founders of the Green party at a time when the party still had principles and was concerned about the environment. Kennedy Graham was the MP who managed to achieve across party consensus on climate change in NZ parliament. No mean feat.

I guess what's left is a bunch of hypocrites without principles and happy to not just condoning benefit fraud, but even prepared to use that very act as election stunt. Pretty sad that a party calling itself "Green" is more concerned about covering their own ar..s than standing for the good of the country including supporting lawful behaviour.

I can see westerly, why you would want to support the so called "green" benefit fraud party (desperation is a good word) - but if you think that Turia proudly boasting about breaking the law will bring you the long desired victory of the extreme Left, than I think you underestimate the majority of the New Zealand voters.

Time will tell. It is certainly an interesting campaign, but I think that most people will prefer to end up with a boring, reliable and competent National led government instead of having to live for the next 3 years in "interesting times", though admittedly - highly unlikely a Mana / Green / Labour / Winston First coalition would hold that long.

Ah yes - and just another question - didn't Jacinda exclude anyway to work together with Winston? Where would you see the numbers for the Left anyway? Is this the sweet scent of delusion in the air?

LOL BP, Some of us do other things besides look at a computer all day. Not sure why you associate me with the extreme left. The only party
I absolutely have no time for is ACT a bunch of neo liberalists wanting a survival of the fittest economy.
National , Labour and the Green parties and even NZ First. all have policies that appeal, but not all of them.
Makes voting difficult.

westerly

blackcap
10-08-2017, 12:24 PM
John Key may have been a gambler but some of us are good at that sort of thing. Right now I'm sitting in a nice hotel in Singapore (here for their National Day Celebrations and to catch a cruise ship) and I can pay for this from my "gambling" on the market. Labour will try to gamble with my money to retain popularity and continue to live the good life off my pocket as all politicians do.

Haha thats funny, I am the same, was here last night for the celebrations and here today before flying back to NZ on Friday. Did you see the paratropper display? That was pretty impressive.

craic
10-08-2017, 01:41 PM
And National isn't? Open your eyes man.
How many new bridges were Northland promised? Some they said they didn't need.
A long time saying that there wasn't a problam in Auckland and suddenly there is and they have the answer.
Good lord man - what world do you live in?

I don't really have a side so don't suffer a lot of 'confirmation bias'.

Learn how to read Dobbi 41 My post included the words "as all politicians do" You may not suffer from confirmation bias but you are pointedly one eyed.

blackcap
10-08-2017, 02:11 PM
El Zorro will be happy...

Labour have climed 3 points to a 15% chance to win the election and National are at 83%

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2634/Which-party-will-win-the-next-New-Zealand-general-election

elZorro
10-08-2017, 03:31 PM
El Zorro will be happy...

Labour have climed 3 points to a 15% chance to win the election and National are at 83%

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2634/Which-party-will-win-the-next-New-Zealand-general-election

Yes, but there has been no trading on that for a day or so, from after the latest poll came out. Maybe I should sign up and make some easy money Blackcap? If I'm allowed, of course. The new rules look more stringent this time. You're only allowed one account and the use has to be private, not on behalf of anyone else, or political party. So they say, not sure how they could check up on that.

fungus pudding
10-08-2017, 04:22 PM
The only party I absolutely have no time for is ACT a bunch of neo liberalists wanting a survival of the fittest economy.

westerly

That's an interesting comment. Which of Act's policies make you think they have a 'survival of the fittest' philosophy or mentality?

Bjauck
10-08-2017, 05:28 PM
That's an interesting comment. Which of Act's policies make you think they have a 'survival of the fittest' philosophy or mentality?
They want to increase the eligibility age for Superannuation - without exception I believe. Tough luck for those who are manual labourers whose bodies physically wear out earlier than others.

ACT I believe do not want to change GST but they want to decrease income tax especially for high incomes. That will mean a more regressive tax system than as at present, hitting those on low incomes who spend all their money and cannot afford to make investments.

They say they want to reduce taxes overall without reducing public services by increasing spending efficiency and reducing "waste." Isn't that what they all say? Perhaps ACT would get blood from a stone....

fungus pudding
10-08-2017, 05:37 PM
They want to increase the eligibility age for Superannuation - without exception I believe. Tough luck for those who are manual labourers whose bodies physically wear out earlier than others.

ACT I believe do not want to change GST but they want to decrease income tax especially for high incomes. That will mean a more regressive tax system than as at present, hitting those on low incomes who spend all their money and cannot afford to make investments.

They say they want to reduce taxes overall without reducing public services by increasing spending efficiency and reducing "waste." Isn't that what they all say? Perhaps ACT would get blood from a stone....

That's a worthwhile goal, offering better superannuation, health, and education at a lower cost. Hard to see any objection to that. I for one don't enjoy paying more for less.

tim23
10-08-2017, 05:49 PM
Well lucky clever you! Labour lead the way in making NZ a better more inclusive place to live; to call Labour gamblers is plain stupid don't you remember Cullen being bagged for being too cautious?

John Key may have been a gambler but some of us are good at that sort of thing. Right now I'm sitting in a nice hotel in Singapore (here for their National Day Celebrations and to catch a cruise ship) and I can pay for this from my "gambling" on the market. Labour will try to gamble with my money to retain popularity and continue to live the good life off my pocket as all politicians do.

fungus pudding
10-08-2017, 06:07 PM
Well lucky clever you! Labour lead the way in making NZ a better more inclusive place to live

Agreed, but after a brilliant 6 years from 84 to 1990 they lost to National, who carried on with Labour's reforms, but at a pathetically slow pace. The only way for Labour to get back in was to oppose everything National was doing. Golden opportunity lost.

winner69
10-08-2017, 07:06 PM
Labour and NZF winning this race by miles

http://www.taxpayers.org.nz/bribe_o_meter

fungus pudding
10-08-2017, 07:21 PM
Labour and NZF winning this race by miles

http://www.taxpayers.org.nz/bribe_o_meter

Interesting. I knew they were doing well, but didn't expect them to be this far out in front.

Joshuatree
10-08-2017, 07:52 PM
With Jacinda neck and neck with wood face Bill (of which a third of his own party don't trust him now) in who is the preferred leader; National must be stunned mullets. Pressure on bill to perform or will the printers have a third bonanza payday printing more hoardings (if the the greens can afford to replace theirs).

elZorro
10-08-2017, 08:07 PM
Labour and NZF winning this race by miles

http://www.taxpayers.org.nz/bribe_o_meter

Of course that graph is a list of all projected cash costs for the next electoral term. Some of those costs are for capital works, so they are defrayed with interest and capital payments to be spread over the life of the assets. If Labour chooses to speed up light rail to save some of the billions of dollars of human time that is wasted in traffic jams in Auckland, they don't deserve to be pilloried in such a basic and crude graph - that is meaningless.

Where is the other side of the graph that shows cost savings in other areas, for example? Disbelievers just need to go back to Stats NZ to see that when Labour was last in office, they grew the economy, increased the tax base painlessly, had near-term record unemployment, and tidied up a lot of the mess left behind by Rogernomics, our giant neoliberal experiment foisted on us by Treasury boffins. A big chunk of old debt was repaid, the one action that saved this useless National Govt, who borrowed it all back, plus a lot more.

fungus pudding
11-08-2017, 12:07 AM
Of course that graph is a list of all projected cash costs for the next electoral term. Some of those costs are for capital works, so they are defrayed with interest and capital payments to be spread over the life of the assets. If Labour chooses to speed up light rail to save some of the billions of dollars of human time that is wasted in traffic jams in Auckland, they don't deserve to be pilloried in such a basic and crude graph - that is meaningless.

Where is the other side of the graph that shows cost savings in other areas, for example? Disbelievers just need to go back to Stats NZ to see that when Labour was last in office, they grew the economy, increased the tax base painlessly, had near-term record unemployment, and tidied up a lot of the mess left behind by Rogernomics, our giant neoliberal experiment foisted on us by Treasury boffins. A big chunk of old debt was repaid, the one action that saved this useless National Govt, who borrowed it all back, plus a lot more.

Give up eZ. You've won. Winnie will choose your lot over National.

hardt
11-08-2017, 02:11 AM
They want to increase the eligibility age for Superannuation - without exception I believe. Tough luck for those who are manual labourers whose bodies physically wear out earlier than others.

ACT I believe do not want to change GST but they want to decrease income tax especially for high incomes. That will mean a more regressive tax system than as at present, hitting those on low incomes who spend all their money and cannot afford to make investments.

They say they want to reduce taxes overall without reducing public services by increasing spending efficiency and reducing "waste." Isn't that what they all say? Perhaps ACT would get blood from a stone....

Explain how a lower tax rate could possibly hurt those who earn less...?





Income Bracket

Current

ACT’s Proposal (from 1 April 2018)



0-14,000

10.5%

10%



14,000-48,000

17.5%

15%



48,000-70,000

30%

25%



more than 70,000

33%

25%




Cut red tape and lower the cost barrier around developments in housing/business/agriculture.

Cut working for families and paid parental leave payments to upper income earners to better fund more effective, targeted programs for those truly in need of help.

Cut corporate welfare and put an end to Governments tendrils creeping into the free market...

Income management for beneficiaries, efficiently budgeting essential costs with allowances on the side, financially stabilising beneficiaries within their current programs.

ACT has many well thought out policies, they are not looking to throw our hard earned tax dollars at voters in hopes of elevating themselves into popularity...

winner69
11-08-2017, 02:26 AM
EZ - keen guy to good looking chick 'I'll buy you a mansion and a red Porsche if you marry me'

Might be capital but still needs heaps of cash over time

Seductive though

elZorro
11-08-2017, 06:12 AM
EZ - keen guy to good looking chick 'I'll buy you a mansion and a red Porsche if you marry me'

Might be capital but still needs heaps of cash over time

Seductive though

Surely light rail in Auckland can't be put off, as National intended to do. Does that make Labour a target? Hardly seems fair.

Annette King's valedictory speech, she is the longest-serving woman MP in NZ. Starts 2 mins in.

https://youtu.be/hlsEeZXp7C4

winner69
11-08-2017, 07:41 AM
Surely light rail in Auckland can't be put off, as National intended to do. Does that make Labour a target? Hardly seems fair.

Annette King's valedictory speech, she is the longest-serving woman MP in NZ. Starts 2 mins in.

https://youtu.be/hlsEeZXp7C4

Annette a great person. I think she had more to offer and a few more terms but didn't seem to be wanted. At least she went in good grace without making a fuss.

She has represented me well as an MP for many years. Her successor Paul Eagles a good guy and gets my electorate vote.

Anybody who thinks light rail going to solve (or help) the problems long term must be joking. Again a partial fix

dobby41
11-08-2017, 08:31 AM
Anybody who thinks light rail going to solve (or help) the problems long term must be joking. Again a partial fix

You are probably right that it is a partial fix but better than just more black top.

fungus pudding
11-08-2017, 09:54 AM
Explain how a lower tax rate could possibly hurt those who earn less...?





Income Bracket

Current

ACTís Proposal (from 1 April 2018)



0-14,000

10.5%

10%



14,000-48,000

17.5%

15%



48,000-70,000

30%

25%



more than 70,000

33%

25%




Cut red tape and lower the cost barrier around developments in housing/business/agriculture.

Cut working for families and paid parental leave payments to upper income earners to better fund more effective, targeted programs for those truly in need of help.

Cut corporate welfare and put an end to Governments tendrils creeping into the free market...

Income management for beneficiaries, efficiently budgeting essential costs with allowances on the side, financially stabilising beneficiaries within their current programs.

ACT has many well thought out policies, they are not looking to throw our hard earned tax dollars at voters in hopes of elevating themselves into popularity...


You will find, without exception, those who criticise Act's policies have no idea what they are.

westerly
11-08-2017, 04:01 PM
You will find, without exception, those who criticise Act's policies have no idea what they are.

I have read their policies.
Note how the percentage tax reduction increases as the declared income increases. 0.5% at $10000 8% at $70000
The free market works well in NZ Even National has investigated petrol pricing and as for a duopoly in supermarkets. Compare Australian prices with NZ.
Cut back on rules and regulations, do away with RMA. Introduce toll roads, congestion charges, and so on.

The average wage earner would really suffer under an ACT led Government.

westerly

elZorro
12-08-2017, 10:17 AM
Annette a great person. I think she had more to offer and a few more terms but didn't seem to be wanted. At least she went in good grace without making a fuss.

She has represented me well as an MP for many years. Her successor Paul Eagles a good guy and gets my electorate vote.

Anybody who thinks light rail going to solve (or help) the problems long term must be joking. Again a partial fix

I had a chance to watch the whole speech today. She was very entertaining.

Article on light rail for Auckland. Vote Labour and it'll get done.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/90825342/plans-to-introduce-light-rail-from-auckland-airport-to-city-centre-confirmed

Joshuatree
12-08-2017, 10:26 AM
800 more cars on auckland roads evey week i heard on national radio. what a mess national have left for labour to sort out.

777
12-08-2017, 10:30 AM
800 more cars on auckland roads evey week i heard on national radio. what a mess national have left for labour to sort out.

But imagine the mess if Labour had been in power.

fungus pudding
12-08-2017, 10:40 AM
I had a chance to watch the whole speech today. She was very entertaining.



Yes. A good old bird. Very rare for the current Labour mob to lose someone worth having.

tim23
12-08-2017, 01:18 PM
Imagine the mess if National had been government before GFC?
But imagine the mess if Labour had been in power.

hardt
12-08-2017, 02:33 PM
I have read their policies.
Note how the percentage tax reduction increases as the declared income increases. 0.5% at $10000 8% at $70000
The free market works well in NZ Even National has investigated petrol pricing and as for a duopoly in supermarkets. Compare Australian prices with NZ.
Cut back on rules and regulations, do away with RMA. Introduce toll roads, congestion charges, and so on.

The average wage earner would really suffer under an ACT led Government.

westerly

The average wage earner is in the bracket 48k - 70k, $1200 - $1750 saved per year is a fair amount.

As evidence advocates, free markets are insurmountably more efficient and effective for 'the majority of participants' than the alternatives... of course compromises are made and and who am I to say if someone's opinion on this is wrong...

Of course regulations are not inherently bad... ACT want to apply a realistic approach to burdens placed on businesses and citizens of NZ who are wanting to progress further.

As for toll roads and congestion charges... reducing the petrol tax substantially will offset the 'total costs' of transport for the majority of Kiwis.
The government can efficiently generate more revenue through a flat fee on these multi billion dollar roads than the huge taxes put on petrol.
As cars become more efficient and one day when petrol is secondary, toll roads will be the norm... This is merely an unpopular policy, purely for psychological reasons as opposed to realistic reasoning.

In conclusion, none of their policy's matter as they are not going to be in government in the near future!

I expect Labour to be in Government, despite leaning right, this country counts on their success and I have only the best of wishes for them... Winston can eat it though.

Joshuatree
12-08-2017, 02:33 PM
But imagine the mess if Labour had been in power.
LOL national created it.

fungus pudding
12-08-2017, 03:19 PM
I have read their policies.
Note how the percentage tax reduction increases as the declared income increases. 0.5% at $10000 8% at $70000
The free market works well in NZ Even National has investigated petrol pricing and as for a duopoly in supermarkets. Compare Australian prices with NZ.
Cut back on rules and regulations, do away with RMA. Introduce toll roads, congestion charges, and so on.

The average wage earner would really suffer under an ACT led Government.

westerly

Only those who would be devastated by paying less tax. They could always make voluntary payments to IRD to make themselves feel better.

Bjauck
12-08-2017, 04:06 PM
Explain how a lower tax rate could possibly hurt those who earn less...?





Income Bracket
Current
ACT’s Proposal (from 1 April 2018)


0-14,000
10.5%
10%


14,000-48,000
17.5%
15%


48,000-70,000
30%
25%


more than 70,000
33%
25%



True, The income tax rates would be reduced - especially benefiting those on high income, and company tax would be reduced too. So in the absence of tax reforms, taking iinto account the main ways revenue is raised and how investment returns and income are taxed in NZ, this increases the regressive nature of the tax system.

Public services will be maintained by "increasing efficiencies". Let's hope that would not involve a cut in public services, affecting the poorer in society...And if the efficiencies cannot be magicked up to replace the lost revenue from tax cuts, which services would be cut? Would GST be raised to cover the shortfall? After all they did not promise to reduce GST even on food basics..

artemis
12-08-2017, 06:44 PM
....... Public services will be maintained by "increasing efficiencies". Let's hope that would not involve a cut in public services, affecting the poorer in society...And if the efficiencies cannot be magicked up to replace the lost revenue from tax cuts, which services would be cut? Would GST be raised to cover the shortfall? After all they did not promise to reduce GST even on food basics..

A useful yardstick is that 30% of any process is waste. Useful because if a review of a process starts out with the aim of finding that amount, much more likely to find it.

Friend of mine in charge of a complex public sector process brought in an industrial engineer to review it like an assembly line. Major efficiencies in time and effort.

Plus some services can be transferred to different providers which commit to better outcomes. We have seen some of that under the current government - Lifeline, Waipareira Trust and the Problem Gambling Foundation come to mind as contracts cancelled in some cases for poor performance.

There is a lot more government performance measurement now. As Tom de Marco said - You can't control what you can't measure.

Bjauck
12-08-2017, 07:10 PM
A useful yardstick is that 30% of any process is waste. Useful because if a review of a process starts out with the aim of finding that amount, much more likely to find it. ... It would be great if another 30% waste is found each and every time the same processes are reviewed for waste...I guess it can depend too on how "waste" is defined. Public expectations can be massaged. Maybe that's what happens when public hospital waiting lists are "reviewed" and some persons waiting for "elective" surgery are sent letters removing them from the queue.

That is not to say that efficiency cannot be improved through improved technology and management processes. I recall watching a program on Heathrow Airport about how it has managed to squeeze increasing numbers of aircraft movements from the airport's two runways, thereby progressively extending the airport's capacity without needing a third runway.

winner69
12-08-2017, 07:11 PM
EZ - the tee shirts are pretty crap
http://www.labour.org.nz/shop#!/Lets-do-this/c/24425573/offset=0&sort=normal

I've told Andrew I want a JACINDA 17 tee to go with my KEVIN 07 collection

Won an election for Kevin ...show some creativity guys

Investor
13-08-2017, 01:28 PM
800 more cars on auckland roads evey week i heard on national radio. what a mess national have left for labour to sort out.

Labour won't be in power.

tim23
13-08-2017, 03:06 PM
Maybe nit but a Labour NZ First could easily be

Major von Tempsky
13-08-2017, 03:31 PM
You won't get NZ First to do anything serious against cars in Auckland. After 2025 they'll be mostly electric cars coming on. Order yours now.

elZorro
13-08-2017, 06:31 PM
Here's an amusing Facebook link for lefties.

https://www.facebook.com/FUN.ChangeTheGovt/photos/a.723351721056682.1073741826.176854139039779/1507646035960576/?type=3&comment_id=1507779625947217

elZorro
14-08-2017, 06:43 AM
National had a bit of a tough weekend. Boag on Q&A (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/95727970/Taxing-farmers-into-oblivion-will-only-set-the-environment-back-says-Steven-Joyce)got her maths on water consumption for cabbages wildly wrong, and then Bill English was roasted by Jack Tame on TV1 this morning about their old/new boot camp idea for the worst youth offenders. They're really getting shown up now, for being so far behind and inept on issues of national importance. You can only put off bringing out good policy, for so long.

fungus pudding
14-08-2017, 06:52 AM
National had a bit of a tough weekend. Boag on Q&A (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/95727970/Taxing-farmers-into-oblivion-will-only-set-the-environment-back-says-Steven-Joyce)got her maths on water consumption for cabbages wildly wrong, and then Bill English was roasted by Jack Tame on TV1 this morning about their old/new boot camp idea for the worst youth offenders. They're really getting shown up now, for being so far behind and inept on issues of national importance. You can only put off bringing out good policy, for so long.

Thanks for the update eZ. Always interested in your growing paranoia.

dobby41
14-08-2017, 07:08 AM
You can only put off bringing out good policy, for so long.

Being reactionary, as National was famously under JK, doesn't give you a lot of time to react in the current environment and lead up to the polls.
I think National have been caught a little short.

winner69
14-08-2017, 07:31 AM
Bill's efforts to come across as human on twitter are rather sadly quite funny. The deception continues

One photo like this ...
https://twitter.com/johnkeymustgo/status/896672002617950208


...used to good effect showing Bill and his wife
https://twitter.com/pmbillenglish/status/896619623218429953

And then vigorously denying they missed the storm

.

BlackPeter
14-08-2017, 07:53 AM
Being reactionary, as National was famously under JK, doesn't give you a lot of time to react in the current environment and lead up to the polls.
I think National have been caught a little short.

Don't count your chicken before they hatch. And just looking back at the latest poll - remind us how the Left would plan to form a government without Winston First? Comrade Jacinda excluded the latter option already - i.e. she ruled out the only potential option they had to form a government.

Politics is a numbers game - not about who is more desperate to force their views onto the electorate.

Joshuatree
14-08-2017, 09:10 AM
We certainly know who is more desperate Comrade Black Peter, with the Nats not holding on to the ball the numbers will sort themselves out.

BlackPeter
14-08-2017, 09:27 AM
We certainly know who is more desperate Comrade Black Peter, with the Nats not holding on to the ball the numbers will sort themselves out.

JT - you don't compute .... is this how you gals intend to win?

I guess I wouldn't know whether National is concerned ... but I would think they can sleep well if the level of your posts allows conclusions on the calibre of their opponents ;);

Personally - I am just an interested bystander - and amused by some of the desperate Left wing rhetoric popping (not just) into this thread.

Grow up, listen, learn ... and come back if your conglomerate of parties is capable to run a country :).

Joshuatree
14-08-2017, 09:30 AM
Thank you Comrade Black Peter i hear and obey:t_up:

Joshuatree
14-08-2017, 11:29 AM
Education trafficking
Slave labour in the fruit growing industries
Exploiting workers
Headline news on national radio today .
No wonder NZ is on the Global Slave labour list.

Major von Tempsky
14-08-2017, 11:54 AM
So, how much water cabbages should get is a matter of national importance? Pull the other leg.

What struck me on Facebook was I accidentally came across a turgid patch where a whole swarm of lefties were pitching into Paula Bennett and any other National politician they could think of in the vilest possible personal terms and I thought immediately of Saint Jacinda's injunction to Kelvin Davis to lay-off the teenage personal insults to Bill English and thought, The Message Hasn't Got Through. I merely commented "Sad" and passed on to a different area of Facebook.

I thought it was a rather good message from Jacinda Ardern and applauded at the time and I must say National Party personal attacks on Labour Party MPs have been very few and far between and quite gentlemanly.

winner69
14-08-2017, 11:55 AM
Education trafficking
Slave labour in the fruit growing industries
Exploiting workers
Headline news on national radio today .
No wonder NZ is on the Global Slave labour list.

C'mon Joshua

Even if Jacinda performs a miracle and Labour govern will these things change?

Doubt it

dobby41
14-08-2017, 12:04 PM
So, how much water cabbages should get is a matter of national importance? Pull the other leg.

What struck me on Facebook was I accidentally came across a turgid patch where a whole swarm of lefties were pitching into Paula Bennett and any other National politician they could think of in the vilest possible personal terms and I thought immediately of Saint Jacinda's injunction to Kelvin Davis to lay-off the teenage personal insults to Bill English and thought, The Message Hasn't Got Through. I merely commented "Sad" and passed on to a different area of Facebook.

I thought it was a rather good message from Jacinda Ardern and applauded at the time and I must say National Party personal attacks on Labour Party MPs have been very few and far between and quite gentlemanly.

And what a bunch of nutters say on FB is Jacinda's fault, or something she can do anything about?
Nutter and vile people abound all over - I think it would be a bit much to suggest that they reside on the so called left only!

Joshuatree
14-08-2017, 12:19 PM
C'mon Joshua

Even if Jacinda performs a miracle and Labour govern will these things change?

Doubt it

No time for doubting and hope in my life w69, both wasted energy and confusing losing tactics.
Thats another reason i like the input of the new and fresh and a little more idealistic; with an assertive lets do this. National like many parties that stay in too long are corrupted in that they are stale , will do anything to stay there at voters expense. A new broom is what we need as a country for all NZ'ers.

elZorro
14-08-2017, 04:44 PM
No time for doubting and hope in my life w69, both wasted energy and confusing losing tactics.
Thats another reason i like the input of the new and fresh and a little more idealistic; with an assertive lets do this. National like many parties that stay in too long are corrupted in that they are stale , will do anything to stay there at voters expense. A new broom is what we need as a country for all NZ'ers.

W69 is keen on a more radical change of some kind, so I think you're preaching to the converted. He's already sent some money to Labour head office. That's a giant hint, W69 is keen on a change at least. Voting Labour or Green Party is the safest way to achieve that.

winner69
14-08-2017, 06:20 PM
W69 is keen on a more radical change of some kind, so I think you're preaching to the converted. He's already sent some money to Labour head office. That's a giant hint, W69 is keen on a change at least. Voting Labour or Green Party is the safest way to achieve that.

A JACINDA 17 tee shirt might swing it but Andrew doesn't seem keen on the idea

JACINDA 17 better than LET'S DO THIS which is rather corny ......has that DIY feel to it like that Mitre 10 equivalent in the USA uses.

A mate in the UK is sending me a Jeremy Corbyn tee - CORBYN / JUST DO IT wrapped around the Nike tick .....now that's a real political tee to growth my KEVIN 07 one.

Labour need to build their campaign around Jacinda ifbheybwantbto win .....get punters in love with her is the trick. A serious campaign on policies won't hack it (credibility if u get what I mean)


PS - Gareth gets some of my cash as well .....even became a member early on to help him get the necessary minimum to become a party.

elZorro
14-08-2017, 07:53 PM
A JACINDA 17 tee shirt might swing it but Andrew doesn't seem keen on the idea

JACINDA 17 better than LET'S DO THIS which is rather corny ......has that DIY feel to it like that Mitre 10 equivalent in the USA uses.

A mate in the UK is sending me a Jeremy Corbyn tee - CORBYN / JUST DO IT wrapped around the Nike tick .....now that's a real political tee to growth my KEVIN 07 one.

Labour need to build their campaign around Jacinda ifbheybwantbto win .....get punters in love with her is the trick. A serious campaign on policies won't hack it (credibility if u get what I mean)


PS - Gareth gets some of my cash as well .....even became a member early on to help him get the necessary minimum to become a party.

I'm pretty sure Labour will form a coalition OK - from what I've seen of Jacinda in action on TV, the voters will be super impressed in the election debates. She's been getting ready for this for 20 years.

Look at the current shambles in this govt department, working with National's spiteful rules.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/95592754/christchurch-tetraplegic-man-disgusted-after-benefit-slashed-without-warning

Joshuatree
14-08-2017, 08:17 PM
And done it to 5000, inhuman. This is the sort of thing they do. Big shake up review , changes coming soon.

elZorro
15-08-2017, 07:22 AM
Wait for the big hue and cry from Federated Farmers about Labour's small proposed tax on water use for irrigators etc. Funding needed to clean up waterways.

At the same time, in the Waikato, home to the biggest number of dairy cows, the district council is calling on more famers each year, and finding 23% of them are fully compliant in their dairy effluent treatment, to local body standards. Many others have ponds big enough, but can't prove they are sealed. Others have ponds too small to contain rainstorm conditions. It's expensive to change this, and the council gives them time to do it.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/95059380/less-than-one-quarter-of-all-waikato-dairy-farms-meet-their-effluent-obligations?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+15+ August+2017

10% of these dairy farmers visited, were clearly too far outside the specs.

Don't forget, dairy effluent is just a small part of the total effluent left on a farm. The rest are point sources spread through every paddock and race, and none of this can be controlled at all. Riparian strips can keep some of it out of waterways nearby, but in many cases the Waikato ground is porous, so there's no escaping the main fact.

More cows lead to more waterways damage under current systems, unless farmers can find a way to contain all effluent or neutralise it on their farms. Maybe barns aren't so bad after all.

Water quality is going to play a part in the elections, and I respect the idea of user-pays. If I had an operation that impacted on the environment, I'd be happy to pay towards my share of that.

BlackPeter
15-08-2017, 07:42 AM
Wait for the big hue and cry from Federated Farmers about Labour's small proposed tax on water use for irrigators etc. Funding needed to clean up waterways.

At the same time, in the Waikato, home to the biggest number of dairy cows, the district council is calling on more famers each year, and finding 23% of them are fully compliant in their dairy effluent treatment, to local body standards. Many others have ponds big enough, but can't prove they are sealed. Others have ponds too small to contain rainstorm conditions. It's expensive to change this, and the council gives them time to do it.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/95059380/less-than-one-quarter-of-all-waikato-dairy-farms-meet-their-effluent-obligations?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+15+ August+2017

10% of these dairy farmers visited, were clearly too far outside the specs.

Don't forget, dairy effluent is just a small part of the total effluent left on a farm. The rest are point sources spread through every paddock and race, and none of this can be controlled at all. Riparian strips can keep some of it out of waterways nearby, but in many cases the Waikato ground is porous, so there's no escaping the main fact.

More cows lead to more waterways damage under current systems, unless farmers can find a way to contain all effluent or neutralise it on their farms. Maybe barns aren't so bad after all.

Water quality is going to play a part in the elections, and I respect the idea of user-pays. If I had an operation that impacted on the environment, I'd be happy to pay towards my share of that.

Actually - I do think the water tax (or better a royalty on water) is a good idea. Properly implemented this will be a very effective tool to help us to better allocate a finite resource and to clean up our rivers and lakes. Good on Labour for starting the discussion and I hope the other parties continue a constructive dialogue. This is clearly more an opportunity (if implemented with thought) than a threat (if implemented the Green Party way).

What might bite Labour however is that it is at this stage a still quite undeveloped policy with no proposed rates but only the horror proposal from the Greenies (10c / l which either would be grossly unfair to a selected few or it would kill not just our agriculture and industry). I know, not Labour's fault, but guilty by association.

Otherwise - it feels Jacinda is making these days as well some sensible noises. Let's hope that some of the always backwards looking hard lefties don't spoil her chances. No matter how this goes - I clearly prefer a capable opposition party to the lame ducks we had over the last 9 years keeping the left benches in parliament warm.

dobby41
15-08-2017, 08:04 AM
Actually - I do think the water tax (or better a royalty on water) is a good idea. Properly implemented this will be a very effective tool to help us to better allocate a finite resource and to clean up our rivers and lakes. Good on Labour for starting the discussion and I hope the other parties continue a constructive dialogue. This is clearly more an opportunity (if implemented with thought) than a threat (if implemented the Green Party way).

Yes - tax isn't a good word for it.
They need to ensure that water has a value so it gets used properly.
If some farms become uneconomic because they have to pay for one of their resources that was proviously free then they probably shouldn't be running anyway.

winner69
15-08-2017, 10:04 AM
National all for free markets, yet they have demonstrated a remarkably poor understanding of what they actually require.

Time for a change eh JT ....but Labour won't be any better I fare

winner69
15-08-2017, 10:08 AM
Bill's useless - must think there are a few votes in it for coming out and saying such things

Or maybe he read The Herald and thought he better sgree

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11904502

BlackPeter
15-08-2017, 10:18 AM
Bill's useless - must think there are a few votes in it for coming out and saying such things

Or maybe he read The Herald and thought he better sgree

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11904502

OK - easy to criticise, but we clearly have the problem that the LVR restrictions seem to stifle the building boom NZ needs.

How would you address the problem?

Major von Tempsky
15-08-2017, 10:44 AM
Yes, Jacinda 17 wet t-shirts might do the trick....until she got arrested that is...

Bjauck
15-08-2017, 10:52 AM
OK - easy to criticise, but we clearly have the problem that the LVR restrictions seem to stifle the building boom NZ needs.

How would you address the problem?
Possibilities:
1. Encourage investors to invest in new residential housing by removing tax breaks when investing in exisiting housing (eg negative gearing)
2. Introduce a stamp duty for investors in existing housing stock
3. Overseas based investors restricted to investing in new building
4. Eliminate GST on new builds
5. Reduced rates on new housing (for a period?)
6. Development levy to be payable as an annual rates surchage.

dobby41
15-08-2017, 11:05 AM
but we clearly have the problem that the LVR restrictions seem to stifle the building boom NZ needs.

Is it clear that the LVR stifled building given that for new builds the LVR is either 90% or doesn't apply (I can't recall what it ended up at).
Or is the issue that banks won't lend because they are risk adverse now?

BlackPeter
15-08-2017, 11:13 AM
Possibilities:
1. Encourage investors to invest in new residential housing by removing tax breaks when investing in exisiting housing (eg negative gearing)
2. Introduce a stamp duty for investors in existing housing stock
3. Overseas based investors restricted to investing in new building
4. Eliminate GST on new builds
5. Reduced rates on new housing (for a period?)
6. Development levy to be payable as an annual rates surchage.

I agree that there must be other options - though most of your proposed options appear to make our tax laws just more complicated and less fair. Not a good start. GST and rate fiddling as well as targeted tax breaks just increase the need for more bureaucrats as well as tax advisors ... none of that adds value to the productive economy.

Can you think about a way which would help our economy and simplify the tax system instead of blowing up the bureaucracy?

What about removing red tape for building projects? Simplify our ridiculous and inefficient planning environment? Economies of scale for our building companies (encourage good apartment buildings), address the work shortage in the building industry not just by more immigration but by introducing and facilitating training programs. Our building industry is hopelessly inefficient - investigate why building in NZ is so much more expensive than e.g. in Australia or in the US (both have similar lousy building standards) and promote better and more efficient ways to work.

So much to do for any government before they need to further complicate the tax laws ....

fungus pudding
15-08-2017, 11:14 AM
Possibilities:
1. Encourage investors to invest in new residential housing by removing tax breaks when investing in exisiting housing (eg negative gearing)
2. Introduce a stamp duty for investors in existing housing stock
3. Overseas based investors restricted to investing in new building
4. Eliminate GST on new builds
5. Reduced rates on new housing (for a period?)
6. Development levy to be payable as an annual rates surchage.

1, 2, and 3 designed to push investors into development. You miss the point. Building a dwelling is not difficult. The shortage is land ready for development. Every new house built by an owner adds to the pool, just as much as if built for rental. 4 and 5 no help. There is no shortage of home owners prepared to build, and development companies happy to build spec for owners - but land supply is dfifficult and processes need to be sped up.

Hoop
15-08-2017, 11:15 AM
Belg ... Maybe we don't mind which two of the major parties get in..eh...both are very good stable political parties with Centre bias

A reference site to look at...Below is an URL to a list of 177 countries ranked from 1 being the worst to 177 the best place in the world using the Failed States index formalae.......I suggest you look at the bottom of the rankings...eh?...hate to see you moving to Somalia (1st) or Chad (2nd)... ;)



Belg since NZ (172) is not good enough..I hope you realise that there isn't many better stable countries in the world to live in....but you are in luck as NZ although close it is not Godzone...Finland (177) has that honour.

So I guess you are moving to one of these better than NZ Countries..eh?..Denmark (173) Switzerland (174) Sweden (175) Norway (176) or Finland (177)...I hope when you move you'll consider flying AirNZ...(Disc: I'm a shareholder:D)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Failed_States_Index

The post above is the first post of this thread...written just before the 2011 elections..

Nothing much has changed ... the grizzling of how bad our government is running things and if nothing changed we would be much worse off in the next 3 years...

Well...6 years and 2 elections have passed.. In 2011 NZ was the 5th best country in the world and now we are are 8th best out of 178 countries measured..we were about 4th in 2016 but NZ slipped up in that year for some reason..

Click the highligthed thread (still works) above to see the latest 2017 standings

Bjauck
15-08-2017, 12:07 PM
I agree that there must be other options - though most of your proposed options appear to make our tax laws just more complicated and less fair.. Your suggestions would be helpful too. Yes the tax system is already complicated. You may have a good point on the gst and rate concession suggestions but I disagree that some stamp duties would add significant extra complexity. The elimination of negative gearing would not increase complexity.

Channelling investment into new building would hopefully relieve inflationary pressure on existing housing and hence eventually increase affordability for first home buyers without needing to adjust LVR or add to NZ's bubble of housing debt.

Bjauck
15-08-2017, 12:10 PM
... The shortage is land ready for development.... True...I would add the need to introduce an environment that allows land to be freed up more readily to my list.

Bjauck
15-08-2017, 12:18 PM
Interesting Australian item on immigration, negative gearing and housing (with particular reference to Syd and Melb). Could have some relevance to NZ and Auckland.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/08/scott-morrison-outright-lies-immigration-negative-gearing/

artemis
15-08-2017, 12:45 PM
Bjauck, when you say eliminate negative gearing are you referring to ringfencing losses (so they cannot be offset against other income)? If so, there are quite a few fish hooks in that.

Or do you mean something else?

Bjauck
15-08-2017, 01:03 PM
Bjauck, when you say eliminate negative gearing are you referring to ringfencing losses (so they cannot be offset against other income)? If so, there are quite a few fish hooks in that.

Or do you mean something else? Suggestion was to eliminate gearing on investment in existing housing (so that losses cannot be offset against income from other sources). Negative gearing for new housing would be a different matter, although all investments should be expected to make a profit within a reaonable timeframe in order to maintain deductibility of expenses.

It is an unrefined suggestion. What do you think the fish hooks would be?

fungus pudding
15-08-2017, 01:18 PM
Suggestion was to eliminate gearing on investment in existing housing (so that losses cannot be offset against income from other sources). Negative gearing for new housing would be a different matter, although all investments should be expected to make a profit within a reaonable timeframe in order to maintain deductibility of expenses.

It is an unrefined suggestion. What do you think the fish hooks would be?

Not so many years ago, claiming a loss on property because of interest, always bought forth a letter from IRD enquiring when you thought the property would start returning a profit. Obviously, if they didn't like the answer and it was obviously bought for gain, then IRD had everything they needed to apply income tax to the profit on sale. All they need do, and should do, is reinstate that procedure. It's simple and fair.

dobby41
15-08-2017, 01:29 PM
Suggestion was to eliminate gearing on investment in existing housing (so that losses cannot be offset against income from other sources). Negative gearing for new housing would be a different matter, although all investments should be expected to make a profit within a reaonable timeframe in order to maintain deductibility of expenses.

It is an unrefined suggestion. What do you think the fish hooks would be?
Why property?
Seems Xero and Martin Jetpack don't make a profit - or took a long, long time.

artemis
15-08-2017, 01:41 PM
Suggestion was to eliminate gearing on investment in existing housing (so that losses cannot be offset against income from other sources). Negative gearing for new housing would be a different matter, although all investments should be expected to make a profit within a reaonable timeframe in order to maintain deductibility of expenses.

It is an unrefined suggestion. What do you think the fish hooks would be?

A few fish hooks off the top of my head.

Tax losses are already carried forward in most ownership structures such as companies and trusts. Those most affected by ringfencing will be the folk with one or two rentals. That is about 80% of owners (not necessarily properties), most of whom will be grumpy if they have not already reached the break even point. Some will sell up.

Where possible, people will arrange their tax affairs to be most advantageous. Like timing of sales so that losses are used up first.

Ringfencing losses means fewer refunds short to medium term but that will change dramatically once break even points are reached and tax losses start to be used up. Ten years of rental ownership will usually be more than enough to break even. After that point no tax could be payable for quite some time.

If owners have to keep topping up from their own pocket they will look to trim expenses and increase income. Maintenance and upgrades may be deferred, upgrades will be to the minimum only, rents will be increased to as much as the market will bear, property managers will have contracts terminated.

fungus pudding
15-08-2017, 02:10 PM
Why property?
Seems Xero and Martin Jetpack don't make a profit - or took a long, long time.

A never ending argument. It's easy to show with those companies that their aim was to profit from trading. Set up any enterprise with no chance of ever making a profit, and expenses are not tax deductible. You must intend a profit.
Those who invest in property just for cap. gain will get clobbered by Mr. Taxman.

dobby41
15-08-2017, 02:24 PM
A never ending argument. It's easy to show with those companies that their aim was to profit from trading. Set up any enterprise with no chance of ever making a profit, and expenses are not tax deductible. You must intend a profit.
Those who invest in property just for cap. gain will get clobbered by Mr. Taxman.

I believe that the rule now is that you must 'intend' to make a profit.
I would agree that some of the 'investing' in the Auckland (particularly) property market should be more correctly classed as 'speculation' and be taxed.
I suspect if IRD wanted to take a test case or 2 they would win.

My own property portfolio is finally in profit after 10 years and a few million capital gain. Would have been much faster though if inflation was high, I wasn't to know that inflation would tank.

artemis
15-08-2017, 02:28 PM
A never ending argument. It's easy to show with those companies that their aim was to profit from trading. Set up any enterprise with no chance of ever making a profit, and expenses are not tax deductible. You must intend a profit.
Those who invest in property just for cap. gain will get clobbered by Mr. Taxman.

True but it is a somewhat grey area which relies on demonstrating intention (apart from the property brightline test). I recall reading a few years back about IRD requiring tax to be paid on profit relating to a property purchased 20 years before. Because intention.

No doubt IRD have guidelines to determine intention but they won't be telling!

Bjauck
15-08-2017, 02:37 PM
A few fish hooks off the top of my head.

Tax losses are already carried forward in most ownership structures such as companies and trusts. Those most affected by ringfencing will be the folk with one or two rentals. That is about 80% of owners (not necessarily properties), most of whom will be grumpy if they have not already reached the break even point. Some will sell up. I think tax losses being carried forward within company and trust structures is a separate issue. That is not used to reduce taxable income from other sources.

I think reform of negative gearing applies to losses being deducted immediately against income from other sources. I am suggesting that this continues for investment in building new housing.



If owners have to keep topping up from their own pocket they will look to trim expenses and increase income. Maintenance and upgrades may be deferred, upgrades will be to the minimum only, rents will be increased to as much as the market will bear, property managers will have contracts terminated. Any changes may not apply to existing investments. As with insulation, maybe other schemes could be introduced to encourage properties be maintained to rentable standards. For future investments, perhaps investors would contemplate paying less for a property instead so that the % rent return was greater in the first place, against which expenses could be deducted.

Bjauck
15-08-2017, 02:53 PM
...
Tax losses are already carried forward in most ownership structures such as companies and trusts. Those most affected by ringfencing will be the folk with one or two rentals. That is about 80% of owners (not necessarily properties), most of whom will be grumpy if they have not already reached the break even point. Some will sell up..... Any change to negative gearing rules may not end up applying to existing rentals.

If Mum and Dad investors decide that investing in residential housing is not as prefereable to financial investments such as fixed interest and shares, is that a bad thing? Currently NZ has such a small proportion of household wealth in financial assets. Relatively cheaper housing may mean that first home buyer can start to get back on the ladder and not so much of NZ's investable capital is tied up in expensive residential land.

Bjauck
15-08-2017, 02:59 PM
....
My own property portfolio is finally in profit after 10 years and a few million capital gain. Would have been much faster though if inflation was high, I wasn't to know that inflation would tank. But...If inflation had been high, interest rates would have been higher than they've been and the amount of credit pumped into residntial land would have been lower...as mortgages would have be based on fewer multiples of incomes.

dobby41
15-08-2017, 03:07 PM
But...If inflation had been high, interest rates would have been higher than they've been and the amount of credit pumped into residntial land would have been lower...as mortgages would have be based on fewer multiples of incomes.

But rent would have gone up much faster than they have.
So property price would, probably, have gone up less, rents would have gone up more and I would have less capital gain (sad) but been cash flow positive faster.
What I was saying was that, when I started, I had an expectation of making a profit sooner than it did. Ended up making more money but taking longer to be in profit - so if IRD come calling that's my story, it was a valid business senario and I wasn't speculating.

Bjauck
16-08-2017, 07:43 AM
But rent would have gone up much faster than they have.
So property price would, probably, have gone up less, rents would have gone up more and I would have less capital gain (sad) but been cash flow positive faster.
What I was saying was that, when I started, I had an expectation of making a profit sooner than it did. Ended up making more money but taking longer to be in profit - so if IRD come calling that's my story, it was a valid business senario and I wasn't speculating. Ok I understand - when you made your investment decision it was in a more inflationary environment in which you were expecting your annual (taxable) income from your investment to increase more each year. As opposed to the environment that eventuated which resulted in less taxable income but much more capital gain.

BlackPeter
16-08-2017, 09:50 AM
https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/national/95793008/Aussie-foreign-minister-says-she-won-t-be-able-to-build-trust-with-a-NZ-Labour-government-after-citizenship-row

I find the story actually quite funny - our Australian siblings seem to think that Kiwis are unfit to join their parliament (even if it is just the second citizenship and unwillingly acquired) and therefore exclude them from high office ... but than they complain if NZ Labour helps them to find out which of their MP's are unfit to rule Australia.

Just wondering whether Ms Bishop is really as stupid as she sounds ... or are all Australians such hypocrites?

I guess either she should thank NZ Labour for identifying the "Kiwi traitor" in her government ... or she should change a very stupid Australian law ... but this would probably require more brain than the remaining (not due to dual citizenship excluded) Australian Parliamentarians can muster - they shouldn't have excluded the Kiwis from their parliament ...

Anyway - back to the subject of this thread ... well done NZ Labour (and Chris Hipkins) ... helping our West Island neighbours to enforce their brain dead laws must be just good neighbourly Kiwi help ... I love it!

jonu
16-08-2017, 09:52 AM
That would be"WEST Island " BP

BlackPeter
16-08-2017, 10:05 AM
Of course, you are right ... this whole upside down thingie is after more than 2 decades still sometimes confusing ;). Fixed it now ...

dobby41
16-08-2017, 10:29 AM
but than they complain if NZ Labour helps them to find out which of their MP's are unfit to rule Australia.

Just wondering whether Ms Bishop is really as stupid as she sounds ... or are all Australians such hypocrites?

But it was actually the media who asked Internal Affairs - it was the media who dobbed him in.
Never let the facts get in the way of a good bias Julie.

dobby41
16-08-2017, 10:32 AM
And then you have one minister of our Govt saying it was media and nothing to do with Hipkins and another saying it was him - wish they would sort out their story.
Seems that National are so excited about they are tripping over themselves.

Joshuatree
16-08-2017, 11:20 AM
key getting his knighthood today :drool: what an injustice.He proud of the problems he has created. In time history will be the judge and the hindsight question will be why, why, oh.why.

winner69
16-08-2017, 11:52 AM
key getting his knighthood today :drool: what an injustice.He proud of the problems he has created. In time history will be the judge and the hindsight question will be why, why, oh.why.

Certain irony about his Australian knighthood or whatever as well eh

fungus pudding
16-08-2017, 01:21 PM
But it was actually the media who asked Internal Affairs - it was the media who dobbed him in.
Never let the facts get in the way of a good bias Julie.

It's all b/s . Anyone can find out the answer that Hipkins gave, in 2 seconds without approaching a politician.

BlackPeter
16-08-2017, 02:13 PM
It's all b/s . Anyone can find out the answer that Hipkins gave, in 2 seconds without approaching a politician.

Maybe you set too high standards ... it might be not so easy for an Australian to find that out - do they have over there already internet ;)?

artemis
16-08-2017, 02:27 PM
It's all b/s . Anyone can find out the answer that Hipkins gave, in 2 seconds without approaching a politician.

That is a good point. Someone who has been around the traps a good while would know where to look or who to ask. A decision to put it on the public record has to be either deliberate or unconvincingly naive. Neither is a good look.

fungus pudding
16-08-2017, 02:49 PM
Maybe you set too high standards ... it might be not so easy for an Australian to find that out - do they have over there already internet ;)?
I believe so, although there's no evidence that anyone there knows how to use it.

winner69
16-08-2017, 03:11 PM
I believe so, although there's no evidence that anyone there knows how to use it.

So true ....very true

probably typed in .gov.nz when we use .govt.nz

tim23
16-08-2017, 06:37 PM
Crazy petulant over reaction from Bishop her style would fit nicely among Bennett, Tolley and co!

777
16-08-2017, 07:48 PM
Crazy petulant over reaction from Bishop her style would fit nicely among Bennett, Tolley and co!

Is she your sister. It was "petulant" that gave you away.

elZorro
17-08-2017, 07:04 AM
Three years after "Dirty Politics", were are the players?

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/10-08-2017/dirty-politics-turns-three-where-are-they-now/

Nicky Hager gives his thoughts on the fallout from his book "Dirty Politics" three years out.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/16-08-2017/sunlight-did-what-sunlight-does-nicky-hager-on-dirty-politics-three-years-on/

I think he forgot about the impact on iPredict: he showed National's attack bloggers were using this site heavily, were effectively in control of it, and eventually social media and forum threads like that posted on here, combined to raise awareness amongst Victoria Uni students who were doing unpaid work on it.

http://salient.org.nz/2014/09/ipredict-or-ipromote/

The site was folded up, and a new govt rule about transparency was the excuse, not the reason.

From what I can see, no NZers are allowed on the new site PredictIt, which targets the USA elections and uses most of the previous coding. There is no money going into our election options, which means it can't be a useful predictor anymore.

Best we look at our own NZ polls instead. Will be watching for the TV1 poll tonight.

fungus pudding
17-08-2017, 08:48 AM
Three years after "Dirty Politics", were are the players?

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/10-08-2017/dirty-politics-turns-three-where-are-they-now/

Nicky Hager gives his thoughts on the fallout from his book "Dirty Politics" three years out.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/16-08-2017/sunlight-did-what-sunlight-does-nicky-hager-on-dirty-politics-three-years-on/

I think he forgot about the impact on iPredict: he showed National's attack bloggers were using this site heavily, were effectively in control of it, and eventually social media and forum threads like that posted on here, combined to raise awareness amongst Victoria Uni students who were doing unpaid work on it.

http://salient.org.nz/2014/09/ipredict-or-ipromote/

The site was folded up, and a new govt rule about transparency was the excuse, not the reason.

From what I can see, no NZers are allowed on the new site PredictIt, which targets the USA elections and uses most of the previous coding. There is no money going into our election options, which means it can't be a useful predictor anymore.

Best we look at our own NZ polls instead. Will be watching for the TV1 poll tonight.

Quite right eZ. I expect you will explode with excitement with tonight's result. There'll be bits of fox spread from Nth. Cape to Bluff.

winner69
17-08-2017, 12:22 PM
OMG - apparently Labour insiders are wetting themselves with delight they can't keep their mouths shut - tonites poll NAT 41 LAB 38

But excitement can lead to exaggeration eh so probably 44 to 36

Greens even worse than last time.

elZorro
17-08-2017, 04:41 PM
I wouldn't be surprised, there's a different voter mood, helped along by the media. They're mostly on Labour's side now, not National's.

Got home early to see it all happen on TV1. :)

winner69
17-08-2017, 04:51 PM
I wouldn't be surprised, there's a different voter mood, helped along by the media. They're mostly on Labour's side now, not National's.

Got home early to see it all happen on TV1. :)

Greens a goners they say

A vote for the Greens may become a vote for National if they end up less 5%

RGR367
17-08-2017, 05:20 PM
Greens support has left the party if we're to believe the poll. So it's about right that that Party should not be allowed to discuss poverty when fraud was the one brought up to be discussed instead.
My party vote is still looking for a spot to park :cool:

fungus pudding
17-08-2017, 05:20 PM
I wouldn't be surprised, there's a different voter mood, helped along by the media. They're mostly on Labour's side now, not National's.

Got home early to see it all happen on TV1. :)

Now you might believe what almost everyone has tried to tell you. That is you were never going to get anywhere with plonkers like Cunliffe or Little at the helm. At long last Labour have entered the race.

elZorro
17-08-2017, 05:41 PM
OMG - apparently Labour insiders are wetting themselves with delight they can't keep their mouths shut - tonites poll NAT 41 LAB 38

But excitement can lead to exaggeration eh so probably 44 to 36

Greens even worse than last time.

44%Nats, 37%Labour, 10%NZF, and 4% Green. I'm really sorry to see that Green poll result, it means there are not a lot of sticky votes there. But I'm also sure they'll get back over 5% quite easily. Probably more like 10%.

Note that a Labour/NZF coalition would trounce National, even now. We've just had a few minutes of valuable exposure on the news, and it'll be repeated at 10.30 or so. Bill's looking pretty dull out there.

Many swing voters are thinking: National's had a good run, maybe it would be interesting to see how Labour do with their new policies. And, Labour have a statesperson at last, fair enough FP.

fungus pudding
17-08-2017, 06:19 PM
44%Nats, 37%Labour, 10%NZF, and 4% Green. I'm really sorry to see that Green poll result, it means there are not a lot of sticky votes there. But I'm also sure they'll get back over 5% quite easily. Probably more like 10%.

Note that a Labour/NZF coalition would trounce National, even now. We've just had a few minutes of valuable exposure on the news, and it'll be repeated at 10.30 or so. Bill's looking pretty dull out there.

Many swing voters are thinking: National's had a good run, maybe it would be interesting to see how Labour do with their new policies. And, Labour have a statesperson at last, fair enough FP.

Well. I'm a swinging voter, but certainly won't swing to Labour this time around. I'm not sure how Winston first @ 10% and Labour @ 37% trounce National - but then again maths was never my strongest point. That is my good looks.

elZorro
17-08-2017, 07:33 PM
Well. I'm a swinging voter, but certainly won't swing to Labour this time around. I'm not sure how Winston first @ 10% and Labour @ 37% trounce National - but then again maths was never my strongest point. That is my good looks.

National's true poll would be 42% at the moment because the Colmar poll is always about 2% higher for them, somehow. Let's say Labour gets that, then it would be 39% to 42%, much closer. Anyway even 47% combined, beats 44%.

fungus pudding
17-08-2017, 07:37 PM
National's true poll would be 42% at the moment because the Colmar poll is always about 2% higher for them, somehow. Let's say Labour gets that, then it would be 39% to 42%, much closer. Anyway even 47% combined, beats 44%.

Except National combined with plonker Peters is 54% - I think at the moment it's anyone's guess. Will settle a bit and become more predictable over the next week or so. I certainly wouldn't be sorry tto see the greens gone.

Baa_Baa
17-08-2017, 07:50 PM
certainly wouldn't be sorry tto see the greens gone.

Agree, and with it Labour as well. No way Winston would lean to the left when he can get National over the line and command any bauble he wants, maybe even PM given Bill is looking at a second and what would be terminal (for him) election defeat, if National was to stand by itself.

Winston as PM, now there's something to think about. There is an uncomfortable sense of inevitability creeping into this election and it has nothing to do with the major party's.

Joshuatree
17-08-2017, 08:05 PM
Except National combined with plonker Peters is 54% - I think at the moment it's anyone's guess. Will settle a bit and become more predictable over the next week or so. I certainly wouldn't be sorry tto see the greens gone.

Greens aint going anywhere, what a horror week. They have plenty of time to get some momentum back above 5% issues as important as ever. Now that those two traitors have gone.Especially the one who tried to come back; revealed himself in all transparency.
BTW a must see if you're even remotely int in your planet is the sequel to "The Inconvenient Truth " is nearly out (here anyway) I'm going to the fundraising nite for the greens

Major von Tempsky
17-08-2017, 08:16 PM
"those two traitors"? The only men of integrity in the Green Party.

Your judgment seems to be faulty in all directions JT, the IT truth is bombing out so heavily in all directions it will probably never get here! AG is so obviously shallow, ignorant and befuddled most of the population can see straight him! Go on JT, do it do it, you can you can. Google the IT sequel and see what reception it is getting from cinema goers! I'd love to see your face when you read it, if you dare to!

blackcap
18-08-2017, 07:54 AM
National still the hot favourite to win the election with the bookies...

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/new-zealand-politics?LeftNav

BlackPeter
18-08-2017, 08:08 AM
National still the hot favourite to win the election with the bookies...

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/new-zealand-politics?LeftNav

Of course .... they have the most votes and Winston is much more likely to go with them than with the Left anyway.

What does surprise me, though is that they rate the Greens more likely to provide the future PM (1/51) than NZ FIRST (1/67). I guess both odds don't really look material, but I would have thought that Winston might have a slim chance, while Shaw ... really - who would want to see him as Co-PM?

Joshuatree
18-08-2017, 08:52 AM
"those two traitors"? The only men of integrity in the Green Party.

Your judgment seems to be faulty in all directions JT, the IT truth is bombing out so heavily in all directions it will probably never get here! AG is so obviously shallow, ignorant and befuddled most of the population can see straight him! Go on JT, do it do it, you can you can. Google the IT sequel and see what reception it is getting from cinema goers! I'd love to see your face when you read it, if you dare to!

They have lost all integrity imo. The worlds environmental problems are more urgent then ever and they get off the bus ! Sanctimonious , selfish ,and lost.

The first Inconvenient truth was a shock to me seeing what is happening to the world; it was a catalyst since backed up by science and policy changes by many of the worlds govts. We know its fact now and I'm looking forward to the followup regardless of reviews as I'm going to learn the latest science and support the fundraising for the greens.
I had a quick look at reviews.Of the 8 that came up there was one two star and all the rest were 3 or 4 stars and favourable; remember its a doco , not an entertainment escapism piece of lightweight fluff.

Major von Tempsky
18-08-2017, 09:17 AM
Waffle all you like JT it's bums on seats in cinemas that counts and it just ain't happening.

Joshuatree
18-08-2017, 09:28 AM
I had a quick look at reviews.Of the 8 that came up there was one two star and all the rest were 3 or 4 stars and favourable; remember its a doco , not an entertainment escapism piece of lightweight fluff.

Major von Tempsky
18-08-2017, 11:33 AM
So how come the polar bears haven't gone extinct, the Himalaya glaciers all disappeared and the World have 50 million climate refugees by 2005? And your own dear Prince Charles prophesied the end of the World in 2017. Rave on.

Joshuatree
18-08-2017, 01:09 PM
Doesn't work like that MVT; you really need to inform yourself. Its a gradual thing, but if you are the end of the line you won't have to worry about it will you.

fungus pudding
18-08-2017, 01:13 PM
They have lost all integrity imo. The worlds environmental problems are more urgent then ever and they get off the bus ! Sanctimonious , selfish ,and lost.

The first Inconvenient truth was a shock to me seeing what is happening to the world; it was a catalyst since backed up by science and policy changes by many of the worlds govts. We know its fact now.......


No we don't. That's silly.

blackcap
18-08-2017, 01:13 PM
Doesn't work like that MVT; you really need to inform yourself. Its a gradual thing, but if are the end of the line you won't have to worry about it will you.

The thing is, according to Gore it does happen like that with his initial movie. Guess his credibility is shot. Anyway the climate change/global warming meme is slowing being exposed for the scam that it is.

Joshuatree
18-08-2017, 01:16 PM
You and trump both ;)

Joshuatree
18-08-2017, 01:35 PM
The thing is, according to Gore it does happen like that with his initial movie. Guess his credibility is shot. Anyway the climate change/global warming meme is slowing being exposed for the scam that it is.

Most ignorant comment I've ever heard. ; will have to place you in trumps golf club too. Make sure your handicap is higher then his or you will get fired:t_up:.

elZorro
18-08-2017, 06:06 PM
The thing is, according to Gore it does happen like that with his initial movie. Guess his credibility is shot. Anyway the climate change/global warming meme is slowing being exposed for the scam that it is.

Let me guess, you're way more into TA than FA with shares, Blackcap. Do some real research, like Gareth Morgan did, and he was neutral/skeptical. Ask him what he thinks now.

Anyway, we're getting off topic. Jacinda was in the news again (Bill wasn't), and Auckland Labour has some of their new signs. We don't have them down here, be about another week, so they say. Nationwide shortage of corflute.

fungus pudding
18-08-2017, 06:42 PM
Let me guess, you're way more into TA than FA with shares, Blackcap. Do some real research, like Gareth Morgan did, and he was neutral/

No he wasn't.

craic
19-08-2017, 12:13 AM
Haven't counted but there s a lot of room for humour, letter by letter on Jacindas teeth?

blackcap
19-08-2017, 05:22 AM
Let me guess, you're way more into TA than FA with shares, Blackcap. Do some real research, like Gareth Morgan did, and he was neutral/skeptical. Ask him what he thinks now.



Actually TA is backward looking and as such I do not use it at all except for the nice little pictures that tell me post an event what has happened. Fully into DCF's, WACC's etc and fully FA :) Bill was in the news but do agree with you, Jacinda has a better public face than Bill does. Bill has little charisma and was better spent as the Minister of Finance and Nats should have had another leader. BUt as the bookies say, Nats are still hot favourites to win the election even after the latest poll so plenty more work for your side to do yet... and what are you going to do about those pesky greens :P

winner69
19-08-2017, 08:20 AM
There's a fascinating study done on Swedish elections over the years - Gender Quotas and the Crisis of the Mediocre Man

The title sums up the paper well .....says have some quotas and the mediocre men disappear .......but also raised the overall competence of those remaining

One conclusion was the higher the competence of its leaders, the more likely a party was to win an election. Mate Jacinda should portray Bill as wet behind the years and useless and casually mention the concept of mediocre men (seeing Nats are likely to have the lowest proportion of females in their caucus)

fungus pudding
19-08-2017, 08:29 AM
There's a fascinating study done on Swedish elections over the years - Gender Quotas and the Crisis of the Mediocre Man

The title sums up the paper well .....says have some quotas and the mediocre men disappear .......but also raised the overall competence of those remaining

One conclusion was the higher the competence of its leaders, the more likely a party was to win an election. Mate Jacinda should portray Bill as wet behind the years and useless and casually mention the concept of mediocre men (seeing Nats are likely to have the lowest proportion of females in their caucus)

Never counted because I think gender is irrelevant, but Amy Adams, Paula Bennett, Niki Kaye, Ann Tolley, Jacqui Dean, Maggie Barry - come to mind. There's a whole heap more.

elZorro
19-08-2017, 08:34 AM
Never counted because I think gender is irrelevant, but Amy Adams, Paula Bennett, Niki Kaye, Ann Tolley, Jacqui Dean, Maggie Barry - come to mind. There's a whole heap more.

W69 was talking about competence, not gender. Why did you have to mention Paula "Hyperbowl" Bennett, FP?

fungus pudding
19-08-2017, 08:53 AM
W69 was talking about competence, not gender. Why did you have to mention Paula "Hyperbowl" Bennett, FP?

Read the last line of w69s quote. And if you are concerned about pronunciation, please teach Jacinda Adern how to pronounce 'women'.

winner69
19-08-2017, 10:37 AM
Twyford says house prices to income should be about 4 times but doesn't has any answers

He (and Labour) need to recognise there is 'bubble' and be honest that such ratios are an impossibility unless we have one big bust. Labour don't seem that keen on building public rentals - that would make it get more people in 'decent' homes

fungus pudding
19-08-2017, 12:37 PM
Twyford says house prices to income should be about 4 times but doesn't has any answers

He (and Labour) need to recognise there is 'bubble' and be honest that such ratios are an impossibility unless we have one big bust. Labour don't seem that keen on building public rentals - that would make it get more people in 'decent' homes

Twyford is clueless. Cost of housing is a huge factor - not just the price. When we have fallen from interest rates of 20% plus, to current levels - guess what happens? Fungus's first rule of real estate economics states that house prices and interest rates are the opposite ends of a see-saw. Median house prices will always settle around the average of an affordable mortgage. That is why the best time to buy is when interest rates are sky-high. $600k at 6% costs the same as $300k at 12%, but 12% leaves the buyer with a lower debt.

Bjauck
19-08-2017, 03:31 PM
Read the last line of w69s quote. And if you are concerned about pronunciation, please teach Jacinda Adern how to pronounce 'women'.
"Wimmin" / "woman" eeether/eyether are acceptable under the NZ English register! Unless you want NZ English to adopt the French system by having an academy of learneds dictating what is acceptable....

The AkUni rag Craccum used to have a column called "Lettuce to the editor" to reflect NZ pronunciation.

If interest rates are low, LVR rates should be higher so that when/if rates head higher and the next recession comes along , recent buyers are not stuck with large amounts of negative equity.

fungus pudding
19-08-2017, 03:40 PM
"Wimmin" / "woman" eeether/eyether are acceptable under the NZ English register! Unless you want NZ English to adopt the French system by having an academy of learneds dictating what is acceptable....

The AkUni rag Craccum used to have a column called "Lettuce to the editor" to reflect NZ pronunciation.

There is one correct pronunciation of the plural word 'women' and that is wimmin, as any dictionary you care to refer to will confirm.
There is nothing more offensive to my ears to hear such remarks as 'all the woman in the room'. Aderne is not the only MP to offend, but she is the most frequently heard.

elZorro
19-08-2017, 03:43 PM
Twyford is clueless. Cost of housing is a huge factor - not just the price. When we have fallen from interest rates of 20% plus, to current levels - guess what happens? Fungus's first rule of real estate economics states that house prices and interest rates are the opposite ends of a see-saw. Median house prices will always settle around the average of an affordable mortgage. That is why the best time to buy is when interest rates are sky-high. $600k at 6% costs the same as $300k at 12%, but 12% leaves the buyer with a lower debt.

Fungus's theorem doesn't stack up though, does it.

Since 2009, interest rates have been fairly constant, and normal CPI and wage inflation has been low. House prices have not settled down. And the only reason for that change has been net migration increases, and a shortage of houses. So according to your theory, when that major external effect changes, since houses are now less affordable than they were, at current prices and interest rates - house prices must decrease when immigration needs get below the rate at which houses are being built. Or, interest rates have to decrease, or wages go up.

Bjauck
19-08-2017, 03:48 PM
There is one correct pronunciation of the plural word 'women' and that is wimmin, as any dictionary you care to refer to will confirm.
There is nothing more offensive to my ears to hear such remarks as 'all the woman in the room'. Aderne is not the only MP to offend, but she is the most frequently heard. I have been brought up hearing "woman." There are different registers for language as well as pronunciation...

Your ears would take a battering travelling around the UK and the USA!

winner69
19-08-2017, 04:01 PM
Hasn't there been a vowel shift in NZ language over the years

fungus pudding
19-08-2017, 04:20 PM
Fungus's theorem doesn't stack up though, does it.



It does indeed. Although that's a simplistic form. The complete picture emerges when you add in restricted supply of land thanks to RMA and planning; but I was posting to this forum - not writing a book. Interest rates have a big impact on all commodities.
Decreasing interest rates will raise house prices. I remember way back trying to get it into Bruce Beetham's head that his proposal of 1%$ interest rates for 1st home buyers would not help them, but he would not admit it. Neither will you of course.
Anyway, you should get your mates to dump Twyford. He'll cost Labour heaps of followers.

Joshuatree
19-08-2017, 04:36 PM
Yeah Right Tui. FP ,maybe you should form the Fungus Pudding Party, maybe dump the fungus you'll do much better , well a tiny bit.:)

If the N party had more cajoles they'd do a lot better with out these upside down puddings too.Need a dump truck though.


Bill
Judith
Paula
Gerry
Simon
Jonathan
NICK

elZorro
19-08-2017, 05:00 PM
It does indeed. Although that's a simplistic form. The complete picture emerges when you add in restricted supply of land thanks to RMA and planning; but I was posting to this forum - not writing a book. Interest rates have a big impact on all commodities.
Decreasing interest rates will raise house prices. I remember way back trying to get it into Bruce Beetham's head that his proposal of 1%$ interest rates for 1st home buyers would not help them, but he would not admit it. Neither will you of course.
Anyway, you should get your mates to dump Twyford. He'll cost Labour heaps of followers.

No, I think your theorem has a small amount of merit, but within bounds. Our first house went up 50% in five years, while interest rates got as high as 20% p.a. In that case, we had high inflation too.

But even when inflation is low, and wages are range bound, your theory still doesn't work medium term. So you're saying that the strong causal link between price increases in Auckland and net immigration figures, are due to RMA and planning issues. But what houses are being built, due to a shortage of local builders and the hassles of doing anything up there amongst the traffic, are almost all expensive. State housing is being sold or boarded up. Why isn't it being refurbished in many cases?

No, in this case, the relevance to the thread is that the National govt chose to allow immigration levels far above the comfort level of Auckland to cope, and then didn't bring in any policies to help the regions. For example, CNI areas have heaps of land available close to existing infrastructure, but they need the new industry to go with it. In such places, house prices are fairly stagnant, while we all wait for a Labour/Green/NZFirst coalition to look fairly at the regions.

artemis
19-08-2017, 05:11 PM
State housing is being sold or boarded up. Why isn't it being refurbished in many cases?......

Assume you have not found time in your busy schedule to find the actual stats. Readily available and extremely detailed.

Bjauck
19-08-2017, 07:23 PM
Hasn't there been a vowel shift in NZ language over the years English language and speech are in constant evolution. In Australia when I say "men and women", the Aussies think I am saying "min" and "woman."

Joshuatree
19-08-2017, 11:33 PM
No, in this case, the relevance to the thread is that the National govt chose to allow immigration levels far above the comfort level of Auckland to cope, and then didn't bring in any policies to help the regions. For example, CNI areas have heaps of land available close to existing infrastructure, but they need the new industry to go with it. In such places, house prices are fairly stagnant, while we all wait for a Labour/Green/NZFirst coalition to look fairly at the regions.

Yes and key got a knight hood then skipped out knowing the mess that was unfolding.Like i said he picked the easy fruit with immigration and some infrastructure projects then fiddled around the edges scared of losing his property base mates and bailed.Same with the water issue. Same with the 24,000 homeless in Auckland and 16,000 more around the country; same with our health system ; hell you can't even get on a waiting list to go on the waiting list in many areas and Dunedin hosp was promised last election ; now its promised within the next 10 years!!

We can do way better, the govt has got worse at each term ; complacency and holding on to power have corrupted them imo .Rise up and vote for change.

winner69
20-08-2017, 07:13 AM
Some pretty rich artists around these days

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/95891686/artworks-used-to-funnel-secret-donors-contributions-to-the-labour-party

winner69
20-08-2017, 07:17 AM
EZ - whose likely to be the top 10 ministers on a Labour led government

Need plenty of 'competence' if 'let's do this' is actually going to deliver the this. Do they have it?

fungus pudding
20-08-2017, 07:28 AM
EZ - whose likely to be the top 10 ministers on a Labour led government

Need plenty of 'competence' if 'just do this' is actually going to deliver the this. Do they have it?

No they don't. That is their biggest trouble. Sorry to storm in and answer for eZ, but there'll be too much excitement in his burrow today with the latest poll results. May even be well oiled up on giggle juice. Jacinda and her comrades will be creaming themseves tonight.

winner69
20-08-2017, 07:35 AM
..............

We can do way better, the govt has got worse at each term ; complacency and holding on to power have corrupted them imo .Rise up and vote for change.

A revolution is needed .....but a Labour led one?

Jacinda has a lot if similarities with Pierre Trudeau. Canadians seem rather disappointed with him. There seems to be an unbridgeable gap between rhetoric and actual delivery.

I can easily see this being the Labour way - Jacinda might be young(ish) and keen but a lot of fuddy duddies will be on her 'let's do this' team

winner69
20-08-2017, 07:54 AM
No they don't. That is their biggest trouble. Sorry to storm in and answer for eZ, but there'll be too much excitement in his burrow today with the latest poll results. May even be well oiled up on giggle juice. Jacinda and her comrades will be creaming themseves tonight.

Yep, they'll be happy as tonight

Polling has become 'sophisticated' over the years but pollsters still grapple with a basic problem - the probability derived from their model has to be compounded with the probability that the model is itself true.

They come up with confidence intervals but not with probabilities

In saying that for NZ at least national %ages translate into numbers of MPs and aren't generally complicated by the need to drill down to individual seats.




And then are the respondents telling what they believe?

Baa_Baa
20-08-2017, 09:45 AM
Some pretty rich artists around these days

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/95891686/artworks-used-to-funnel-secret-donors-contributions-to-the-labour-party

The money doesn't go to the artist but the artist is named as the donor! Money laundering plain and simple, Labour should be ashamed and the 'loophole' closed.

artemis
20-08-2017, 10:31 AM
The money doesn't go to the artist but the artist is named as the donor! Money laundering plain and simple, Labour should be ashamed and the 'loophole' closed.

IRD might be taking an interest as there will be a disjoint between income and 'donations' made.

ETA Are charitable tax deductions available for donations to political parties? If so the artists will be in happy happy land on those figures.

blackcap
20-08-2017, 11:36 AM
The money doesn't go to the artist but the artist is named as the donor! Money laundering plain and simple, Labour should be ashamed and the 'loophole' closed.

Looks like dirty politics to me here. Que Hagar with another book perhaps?

winner69
20-08-2017, 12:44 PM
Huge crowd at the Auckland TownHall

They say a few bus loads of the converted from Tauranga have turned up - you one of them Joshua?

fungus pudding
20-08-2017, 01:26 PM
Huge crowd at the Auckland TownHall

They say a few bus loads of the converted from Tauranga have turned up - you one of them Joshua?


He's probably at home head down buried in David Seymour's book. 'Own your future'. He'll really enjoy it it's good. Even eZ will like it, but he's probably out changing signs.

winner69
20-08-2017, 02:01 PM
He's probably at home head down buried in David Seymour's book. 'Own your future'. He'll really enjoy it it's good. Even eZ will like it, but he's probably out changing signs.

Fungus - Apparently the launch is like the second coming.

Thousands in the hall and overflow areas ......and Andrew tweeting tens of thousands watching the various live streams on the Internet

Wow - not a revolution - it's a crusade

fungus pudding
20-08-2017, 02:43 PM
Fungus - Apparently the launch is like the second coming.

Thousands in the hall and overflow areas ......and Andrew tweeting tens of thousands watching the various live streams on the Internet

Wow - not a revolution - it's a crusade

Probably trying to outdo Trump. Someone better tell him.

Joshuatree
20-08-2017, 04:06 PM
Its national who have been the leaders in lowering the bar, misinforming; promising; exaggerating along with many of the pro national media , radio stations and tv stations. For example saying water will be charged to farmers , horticulturists etc etc at 10c a litre and its actually 1 to 2 c per thousand litres so thats a 10,000 times exaggeration (@ 1c a litre). And omitting the natural rainfall from their dire calculations; its like they've decided to trumpify the election and that thats ok, it sure is not.

And they've been doing pathetic little incremental fiddlings or nothing and now we have a mega problem with housing for one with the health system close by etc etc. Its become the norm for national to behave like this. Thats one reason why we need a new broom with ethics and morals as the broom handle...

Joshuatree
20-08-2017, 04:11 PM
Docs warn Dunedin hospital build could be 'disastrous' They're slamming the Government's plan where private investors stand to profit. (http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/08/docs-warn-dunedin-hospital-build-could-be-disastrous.html)

Joshuatree
20-08-2017, 04:21 PM
Worth looking at this again (Bills 400 plus texts to Glenys were revealed later) and wondering how the police investigation is going? Bill to be called as a witness?

Patrick Gower: Bill English has damaged his political mana (http://trc.taboola.com/mediaworks-newshub/log/3/click?pi=%2Fhome%2Felection%2F2017%2F08%2Fpatrick-gower-jacinda-ardern-s-climate-change-line-an-absolute-banger.html&ri=7de37b47c67e5c2899d67dc164e5343e&sd=v2_da5afbe12dd4f02bebc0f9bf78b4ce2a_8ce16ffc-e527-4933-9396-ee0c42c6b02c_1503205813_1503205941_CIi3jgYQq8lBGPC _ufDfKyADKAMwpgE&ui=8ce16ffc-e527-4933-9396-ee0c42c6b02c&it=video&ii=1115431164715070715&pt=video&li=rbox-blended&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newshub.co.nz%2Fhome%2Fpoliti cs%2F2017%2F06%2Fpatrick-gower-bill-english-has-damaged-his-political-mana.html&vi=1503205941232&r=34&ppb=CLMG&cpb=Eg4yNjgtNzUtUkVMRUFTRRigIyCc__________8BKhloay 50YWJvb2xhc3luZGljYXRpb24uY29tMgh3YXRlcjY2NQ)

fungus pudding
20-08-2017, 04:54 PM
Worth looking at this again


Worth looking at this again as well

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSMYa-JOwKg

elZorro
20-08-2017, 08:05 PM
Fungus - Apparently the launch is like the second coming.

Thousands in the hall and overflow areas ......and Andrew tweeting tens of thousands watching the various live streams on the Internet

Wow - not a revolution - it's a crusade

Here's Jacinda's speech, W69. This new Labour Coalition will have a lot of aspirational goals to aim for.


https://thestandard.org.nz/jacindas-campaign-launch-speech/

The Greens back at 8%, National down at 40% in the latest UMR poll.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11907277

Joshuatree
20-08-2017, 08:55 PM
Worth looking at this again as well

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSMYa-JOwKg

Touche another example of what Ive just said, lowering the bar, stooping , mini me trump ets going to the lowest filthiest of the low whale oil mudslinger for hire. Comrade Fungus Pudding (sounds great doesn't it)
Im surprised you too have sunk into the slime; desperadoes i guess, but you've illustrated (thanks:)my point that the nat are corrupted by power and will attempt anything. Thats why they have to go. They are here for themselves not for the good of NZ. We Are Doing This. Cometh the hour cometh the woman.

fungus pudding
21-08-2017, 05:47 AM
Touche another example of what Ive just said, lowering the bar, stooping , mini me trump ets going to the lowest filthiest of the low whale oil mudslinger for hire. .

You obviouly didn't watch it. That's Arderne in the video - not me.

winner69
21-08-2017, 07:28 AM
Jacinda is frickin awesome.

Climate change is the nuclear free moment of her generation

Good one - that's the end if deep sea oil exploration off NZ and she'll overturn that ludicrous decision the other day to allow seabed mining off the West Coast.

Awesome

Joshuatree
21-08-2017, 07:29 AM
Comrade fungus pudding its you lowering the standards to a mini me trumpet. Very disappointing. Anything goes?

winner69
21-08-2017, 07:46 AM
No manna from heaven for Jacinda

She's just sent me another email pleading for more cash - as if the first impulse $100 wasn't enough

Not even a confirmed Labour voter yet but she nearly got me hooked with this bit -

........the time has also come for leadership in New Zealand – just like Michael Joseph Savage built the welfare state and Norman Kirk sent that frigate to Mururoa, I want to tackle the challenges we’re facing head on.

blackcap
21-08-2017, 08:24 AM
Looking more interesting by the day. Betfair.com are now offering books on who will provide the next PM and also who will have the most seats. National available at 1.40 to provide the next PM, that is me on the other side if you are interested. So its not a hot shot anymore that National will be next in govt..... interesting next few weeks that is for sure. That latest poll puts National just 3 points ahead of Labour was it? Bill looked very boring and bureaucratic on One News last night. Jacinda doing better in the slogan war and that is what wins elections these days...... Bill was and is the wrong guy for National. He just has no charisma, talking last night about "being ahead of the curve" I mean, what is a curve? What are you on about? Most NZ'ers do not have any knowledge of Econ 101 whatsoever. Anyway, still hope National can squek over the line but not that convinced anymore. Labour masterstroke was ditching Little although the Jacinda effect may have peaked early and I am thinking once she gets exposed for the vacuous mind she is a few may swing back to the blue.

Joshuatree
21-08-2017, 08:52 AM
No manna from heaven for Jacinda

She's just sent me another email pleading for more cash - as if the first impulse $100 wasn't enough

Not even a confirmed Labour voter yet but she nearly got me hooked with this bit -

........the time has also come for leadership in New Zealand – just like Michael Joseph Savage built the welfare state and Norman Kirk sent that frigate to Mururoa, I want to tackle the challenges we’re facing head on.

Im in. Its amazing how complacent we have become.We have homeless people on our streets here now in our shopping centre; they are just another city feature like the new ticketless parking machines ;and most walk right past them unseeing, thinking drug addict, bludger etc. But its all happened under nationals watch along with the huge increase in in NZ, 40,000, plus all the untold numbers trying to pay rent and cover everything else as well as in my earlier example, be an aspiring teacher. We have lowered our standard as a country in people valuing, health care , housing and the cost of it, environmental etc. And Bill comes out and promising 10 new roads/highways as if that will fix everything and i remember 10 new bridges last time and guess what ;didn't happen. Tui beer co must be booming atm.
And Bill says he is sensing NZ doesn't want change,lol:t_up:

777
21-08-2017, 08:57 AM
You are so blind JT. There were people on the streets during the last Labour government and they never solved the problem then and sure as hell won't be able to do anything should they get elected this time.

fungus pudding
21-08-2017, 08:59 AM
You are so blind JT. There were people on the streets during the last Labour government and they never solved the problem then and sure as hell won't be able to do anything should they get elected this time.

They certainly won't achieve much if the obnoxious Twyford is ever housing minister.

dobby41
21-08-2017, 09:05 AM
You are so blind JT. There were people on the streets during the last Labour government and they never solved the problem then and sure as hell won't be able to do anything should they get elected this time.

9 years on and it has gotten worse.
Apparently our economy is doing great - for some.

Joshuatree
21-08-2017, 09:08 AM
Yes its exploded but Comrade Fungus doesn't see them ; it would be offensive to his pedestal.

Major von Tempsky
21-08-2017, 04:04 PM
I remember looking down at the china toilet bowl as I peed. It said "Twyfords Civic". Don't spose it's changed much.

JT talks of a tidal wave of change? Where? How? Helen Clark was a centre field manager, Jacinda Ardern's father is something in business.

Still it's good to see the centre taking hold after several failed Labour leaders thought the solution to electoral failure was to go further left.

fungus pudding
21-08-2017, 04:08 PM
I remember looking down at the china toilet bowl as I peed. It said "Twyfords Civic". Don't spose it's changed much.

JT talks of a tidal wave of change? Where? How? Helen Clark was a centre field manager, Jacinda Ardern's father is something in business.

Still it's good to see the centre taking hold after several failed Labour leaders thought the solution to electoral failure was to go further left.

Don't for a minute think Comrade Arderne is centre left. She's further left than most of Labour.

Joshuatree
21-08-2017, 04:20 PM
Same old ,same old sawdust from Comrade Fungus Pudding.Bring back Muldoon and his dancing cossacks yeah great idea yeh yeah. lets have a harvey wall banger party too :t_up:

elZorro
22-08-2017, 06:51 AM
Her name is Jacinda Ardern, FP. If you're going to bring up old videos, you could at least get her name right.

Jacinda announced Labour's backing of rail for Hamilton/Tauranga/Auckland yesterday. Very similar to the Green policy announced last week, there have been a lot of people in Hamilton agitating for this for some years. Longer term there may be a capacity issue on the tracks, and of course Fonterra's factory in Te Rapa is using rail presumably to the ports, maybe that wasn't the case to the same level in the past.

But if $20mill is the setup cost, that's quite small in terms of added road kms, about 2/3 of one km of highway roading.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/national/95985999/Labour-to-spend-20m-on-commuter-rail-between-Auckland-Hamilton-and-Tauranga

https://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/news/95999367/Labour-promises-rail-within-18-months-for-Hamilton-commuters

fungus pudding
22-08-2017, 07:43 AM
Her name is Jacinda Ardern, FP. If you're going to bring up old videos, you could at least get her name right.



Yes. Sorry. I thought it had an e on the end; an unusual surname. My apologies to you and Comrade Ardern.