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blackcap
12-09-2017, 08:13 AM
But what if the expert tax committee says they should be implemented?

Its very clear she knows what taxes she wants - she just isn't telling

The duplicitous nature of JA knows no bounds. Lets not forget the "comrades" clip on you tube. This morning she was asked about that, Jacinda tried to play this down. She was deliberately vague about where it was - "Hungary? I'm not sure. I was young, 25, I think". She would've been 29.

fungus pudding
12-09-2017, 08:20 AM
Jacinda Adern has reiterated that death duties and inheritance tax are OFF THE TABLE.:mad ;::D:D

.

So what are the asset and wealth taxes she wants to introduce ?

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 08:21 AM
Her integrity is intact Joyce and bill have been swallowed down their own black hole for lying.
She is very clear this morning that death duties and inheritance tax are off the table so the working group has a guideline there.
Transparency plus

No death duties

No inheritance tax

No capital gains on the family property (land and home).

Speculators will pay tax on buying and selling houses,.

Foreigners won't be able to buy houses here like in many other countries to eliminate speculating there.

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 08:22 AM
So what are the asset and wealth taxes she wants to introduce ?

Have you dreamed this taxi fungus.

777
12-09-2017, 08:24 AM
In the words of JT , Jacinda is just a liar. She knows exactly what taxes will be put in place and knows Labour would lose the election if she came out and said it.

And the comrades speech, 25 is not young. Convenient memory lapse by her. And I could quote JT here again.

fungus pudding
12-09-2017, 08:25 AM
Have you dreamed this taxi fungus.

No.
.

blackcap
12-09-2017, 08:25 AM
In the words of JT , Jacinda is just a liar. She knows exactly what taxes will be put in place and knows Labour would lose the election if she came out and said it.

And the comrades speech, 25 is not young. Convenient memory lapse by her. And I could quote JT here again.

29 is not young either and she was already in Parliament at that stage...

777
12-09-2017, 08:29 AM
29 is not young either and she was already in Parliament at that stage...

Scary. 4 years after that speech.

fungus pudding
12-09-2017, 08:30 AM
Her integrity is intact Joyce and bill have been swallowed down their own black hole for lying.
She is very clear this morning that death duties and inheritance tax are off the table so the working group has a guideline there.
Transparency plus

No death duties

No inheritance tax

No capital gains on the family property (land and home).

Speculators will pay tax on buying and selling houses,.

Foreigners won't be able to buy houses here like in many other countries to eliminate speculating there.

Speculators pay tax on buying and selling real estate now.
CGT that she will introduce on real estate and businesses will not make a great deal of difference to those markets.

dobby41
12-09-2017, 08:32 AM
The duplicitous nature of JA knows no bounds. Lets not forget the "comrades" clip on you tube. This morning she was asked about that, Jacinda tried to play this down. She was deliberately vague about where it was - "Hungary? I'm not sure. I was young, 25, I think". She would've been 29.

People seeing Reds under the bed - really?
I thought we had gotten rid of the communist rubbish many years ago.

fungus pudding
12-09-2017, 09:01 AM
People seeing Reds under the bed - really?
I thought we had gotten rid of the communist rubbish many years ago.

She's not a communist - she's a social democrat of the Nordic or Scandinavian model, who generally do not like to be called socialists - but that is what they are.

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 09:10 AM
In the words of JT , Jacinda is just a liar. She knows exactly what taxes will be put in place and knows Labour would lose the election if she came out and said it.

And the comrades speech, 25 is not young. Convenient memory lapse by her. And I could quote JT here again.

She is not lying thats the domain of billy and joyce ,on the record for all to see; but i may well be mistaken.And you can not say" she knows exactly what taxes will be put in place" oh no. That sort of smearing will end up back on the one throwing the dirt as it has for holes joyce and english. Labour are fighting a clean fight, national are fighting a dirty fight; it reflects badly on them; we need standards. People are voting now and you are pushing the same old fear mongering barrow up the ever steepening hill; at least you're are being consistent but desperate in your flailing.

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 09:14 AM
Speculators pay tax on buying and selling real estate now.
CGT that she will introduce on real estate and businesses will not make a great deal of difference to those markets.

It will make it fairer. nothing more galling for an honest working taxpayer to see these speculators screw the renters (those hard working folk who can't come up with deposit because houses are so dear and out of reach) run their rentals at loss , then flick them after so many years for minimal or no tax; its so wrong.

fungus pudding
12-09-2017, 09:18 AM
It will make it fairer. nothing more galling for an honest working taxpayer to see these speculators screw the renters (those hard working folk who can't come up with deposit because houses are so dear and out of reach) run their rentals at loss , then flick them after so many years for minimal or no tax; its so wrong.


Then apply it to the primary residence or family home as well. How do you think tenants view their neighbours that own their houses then flick them after so many years for no tax; it's so wrong.

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 09:19 AM
But what if the expert tax committee says they should be implemented?

Its very clear she knows what taxes she wants - she just isn't telling


Not an option ; they are off the table. Thats the only guidelines this mere mortal knows about atp. Getting the best brains who specialise in this area is what any sensible person would do just as businesses do and as national have done in the past.

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 09:26 AM
Then apply it to the primary residence or family home as well. How do you think tenants view their neighbours that own their houses then flick them after so many years for no tax; it's so wrong.

Wrong ,a little nuts there fp. Everyone should have the opp to have their own home. Under national home ownership is less and less reachable then ever before imo. You know peoples properties are off the table for capital gains tax fp . You have a lot invested in property; are you mortgaged to the eyeballs?

minimoke
12-09-2017, 09:36 AM
Wrong ,a little nuts there fp. Everyone should have the opp to have their own home. Under national home ownership is less and less reachable then ever before imo. You know peoples properties are off the table for capital gains tax fp . You have a lot invested in property; are you mortgaged to the eyeballs?
Why should a family home be exempt. There are profits to be made when the owner sells and down sizes or dies. That's not fair that families of the wealthy Capitalist land owners reap the benifits while the serfs in rentals can only look on with envy.

dobby41
12-09-2017, 09:45 AM
Then apply it to the primary residence or family home as well. How do you think tenants view their neighbours that own their houses then flick them after so many years for no tax; it's so wrong.

Who care what the tenants think - they don't own the place so won't get any capital gain either way.

I would apply it to all houses though (primary or not) and everything else. Keep it simple without ifs and buts.

fungus pudding
12-09-2017, 09:46 AM
Wrong ,a little nuts there fp. Everyone should have the opp to have their own home. Under national home ownership is less and less reachable then ever before imo. You know peoples properties are off the table for capital gains tax fp . You have a lot invested in property; are you mortgaged to the eyeballs?

No. I do not have mortgages these days. But if you think CGT is a good idea (and I do not say that it isn't - only that it must be properly designed) then why is it a good idea?
If it is to make it 'fair' for those who are not benefitting, then why exclude the family home? That opens the gap between haves (owners) and have-nots (tenants), and you know as well as I do that there is much concern about the gap between so-called rich, and so-called poor, or do you not care about the poor?

dobby41
12-09-2017, 09:47 AM
wealthy Capitalist land owners reap the benifits while the serfs in rentals can only look on with envy.
Could be they worked to be wealthy landowners.
Maybe the serfs could work at it?

While I agree with the CGT for everything some of the arguments supporting it are a bit spurious I feel.

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 09:47 AM
The family home is ring fenced.The labour party wants to reverse the damage national has created where more people are paying rents they can't afford then ever because house building hasn't been able to keep up with demand.And house prices have soared beyond first home buyers etc.

Immigration numbers have a part to play in this and overseas buyers make up somewhere in the 3 to 13% of the buyers(maybe not atpit). The figs aren't available for us to decipher(ask national) but labour think its at the higher end.

The working group (outside experts i believe) for Labour will come up with the best solution for a capital gains tax to plug the gaps the speculators are taking advantage of it and paying no tax in some cases by running rentals at a loss. It will take over year. If its good Labour will want to put it in place and let the voters decide at the next election how good it is.

Its a complicated fix with fishhooks and needs to b done right first time hopefully.

Sgt Pepper
12-09-2017, 09:50 AM
She's not a communist - she's a social democrat of the Nordic or Scandinavian model, who generally do not like to be called socialists - but that is what they are.

Fungus
Imagine that, we could end up like the Nordic Countries!!. I mean what economic and social basket cases they are. Their old people roam the streets looking in rubbish tins for food, they hardly have any scaled industry to speak of. lets hope not!. Staat Oil, Volvo, Maersk Shipping, Novartis Pharmaceutical etc etc all little companies which hardly make any economic impact.
Apparently Labour has ordered the Guillotines for the city centres.

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 09:54 AM
:DHeehee. they are so on to it ;and with the environment too.

BlackPeter
12-09-2017, 09:55 AM
Who care what the tenants think - they don't own the place so won't get any capital gain either way.

I would apply it to all houses though (primary or not) and everything else. Keep it simple without ifs and buts.

Absolutely correct - apply CGT on all houses, all business, shares and bonds and any other property (art, collections of any sort, vintage cars - well, anything which could appreciate in value). This will make it simple. The people who save money or own things must be punished. Saving is bad. You must love these Labour policies.

Great times to come for lawyers, tax advisors and bureaucrats ... while the rich won't be worried (just get a lawyer to re organise your affairs and start a new trust) and the poor won't gain anything (any potential benefit will be eaten up by increased bureaucracy). However - the middle class will bleed - but this is the very people Labour wants to punish anyway, isn't it?

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 09:57 AM
No they want the working group to cover all the possibilities.Iceman suggested a flat 10% capital gains tax all-round. Easy and simple to run.

minimoke
12-09-2017, 10:04 AM
The family home is ring fenced.
Well thats nuts. Just means the filthy rich will shift capital to family castle.

minimoke
12-09-2017, 10:05 AM
Absolutely correct - apply CGT on all houses, all business, shares and bonds and any other property (art, collections of any sort, vintage cars - well, anything which could appreciate in value). This will make it simple. The people who save money or own things must be punished. Saving is bad. You must love these Labour policies.

Sounds like TOP policy

BlackPeter
12-09-2017, 10:06 AM
Fungus
Imagine that, we could end up like the Nordic Countries!!. I mean what economic and social basket cases they are. Their old people roam the streets looking in rubbish tins for food, they hardly have any scaled industry to speak of. lets hope not!. Staat Oil, Volvo, Maersk Shipping, Novartis Pharmaceutical etc etc all little companies which hardly make any economic impact.
Apparently Labour has ordered the Guillotines for the city centres.

Well, let's test that.

Actually - I do travel a lot and have nowhere seen that many intoxicated people sitting or lying on the ground in substations or similar like in Stockholm. Not a pretty sight.

Can't be all honky dory in these Scandinavian countries - can it? But yes, they do have a gold plated social system - and afford it through selling their resources. Norway sells oil and Sweden sells timber. What are you proposing we are selling to finance a gold plated social system?

Ah - and the strong economy? Let's have a long and deep thought why Volvo and Saab went bankrupt - shall we? All due to the strength of the Scandinavian model? Hardly. Volvo had to be saved by the Chinese .... Saab was not that lucky.

Be careful what you wish for ...

fungus pudding
12-09-2017, 10:28 AM
Well, let's test that.

Actually - I do travel a lot and have nowhere seen that many intoxicated people sitting or lying on the ground in substations or similar like in Stockholm. Not a pretty sight.

Can't be all honky dory in these Scandinavian countries - can it? But yes, they do have a gold plated social system - and afford it through selling their resources. Norway sells oil and Sweden sells timber. What are you proposing we are selling to finance a gold plated social system?

Ah - and the strong economy? Let's have a long and deep thought why Volvo and Saab went bankrupt - shall we? All due to the strength of the Scandinavian model? Hardly. Volvo had to be saved by the Chinese .... Saab was not that lucky.

Be careful what you wish for ...

But it's what Taxcinda wishes for us. Utopia.

Bjauck
12-09-2017, 11:07 AM
Sounds like TOP policy I would go for the Estonian model. That could see a drop in income tax rates and some people who own appreciating assets that earn income, could end up paying less tax. So those successful people could pay less tax. However it is true, a collector of vintage cars, that go up in value (after costs,) could pay tax on the capital profits on sale.

Rep
12-09-2017, 12:58 PM
[QUOTE=Joshuatree;683573
Transparency plus
No death duties
No inheritance tax
No capital gains on the family property (land and home).
Speculators will pay tax on buying and selling houses,.
Foreigners won't be able to buy houses here like in many other countries to eliminate speculating there.[/QUOTE]

I have to ask a couple of questions -

First some context: NZ and China are in the process of 'upgrading' the FTA - the one that the Clark Administration and in particular Phil Goff worked hard at getting across the line.

The current FTA provides that Chinese Citizens could purchase land here. The current FTA also provides as many do for 'most favoured nation' status so it grandparents in that any subsequent FTAs that are more favourable get flipped into the NZ one.

The Australia and China FTA was recently signed and provides for a quicker removal of tariffs on Australian dairy products being exported to China than the current NZ one and as part of the 'upgrade' then NZ trade negotiators would be seeking to have those tariffs removed either immediately or at least as quickly as those on Australian products.

Given where we are in the FTA upgrade timeline where does pulling the pin on a key benefit for Chinese Citizens going to sit when we ask for a major tariff reduction acceleration?

Second Question: does anyone not see the major loophole with these three items - No inheritance tax
No death duties (estate duty)
No capital gains on the family property (land and home)?

Third question: Currently even if you are an owner occupier and have a frequent/regular pattern or intention to resale for a gain then you are potentially doing so in the course of business and then the gains are assessable - does this mean that the CGT provides for such transactions to create a tax rate arbitrage? If so that's potentially going to make it much harder to find cheaper properties.

Lastly define 'speculator' - is a farmer on a family block owned for generations next to the urban limit a speculator? If he or she isn't why not and think about how that applies to almost anyone who owns a home and intends to use it to partly fund or wholly fund their retirement?

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 01:16 PM
Q1 I think I'm right ,foreigners can't buy property in china and many other countries including Aus? .Sensible. Foreign buyers helped push up the prices in auckland; buying and flicking off awe or so later it went nuts for awhile. we don't know what else is hidden in there.The USA was one of the rule makers.Now they are not there we can negotiate better deals and we need to know whats there.

q 2 They are all off the table.Not for consideration.

Q3 no idea this is the sort of thing for the working group to nut out.

q4 this is also a reason the working group of experts will come up with a fair solution.

winner69
12-09-2017, 01:22 PM
Jacinda on the radio this morning -

"New Zealand has been served well by interventionist governments. That actually it's about making sure that your market serves your people - it's a poor master but a good servant," Ardern said.

"Any expectation that we just simply allow that the market to dictate our outcomes for people is where I would want to make sure that we were more interventionist."



So neoliberalism is dead in NZ if she wins.

Won't make those who were happy with how NZ was managed last 9 years happy any more

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/96739673/jacinda-ardern-says-neoliberalism-has-failed

minimoke
12-09-2017, 01:57 PM
Jacinda on the radio this morning -

"New Zealand has been served well by interventionist governments. That actually it's about making sure that your market serves your people - it's a poor master but a good servant," Ardern said.

"Any expectation that we just simply allow that the market to dictate our outcomes for people is where I would want to make sure that we were more interventionist."



So neoliberalism is dead in NZ if she wins.

Won't make those who were happy with how NZ was managed last 9 years

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/96739673/jacinda-ardern-says-neoliberalism-has-failed
We should go back to the posts about blade runner. Looks like we will have a "mother" making all our decisions for us. Lets see what we think of her in a few years time.

winner69
12-09-2017, 01:59 PM
Found this on twitterland

winner69
12-09-2017, 02:02 PM
Newshub poll tonight

Rumour Nats down to 37%

Hope Maori Party is improving seeing we non-Maori can party vote for them if we want

fungus pudding
12-09-2017, 02:20 PM
Newshub poll tonight

Rumour Nats down to 37%

Hope Maori Party is improving seeing we non-Maori can party vote for them if we want

Funny how that worm turns. Taxcinda is more Muldoon than Muldoon was; now his Labour voting enemies are falling over themselves for an interventionist govt. again.
Today we learn that the taxpayers are going to shout themselves a 'free' television channel which won't even have to try and pay its way.
Wonder how long it would take her to match Sweden with two out of three working for the 'gummint'.
Hopefully we'll never know.

winner69
12-09-2017, 03:13 PM
This is hilarious from the Facebook page of a Nat candidate https://www.facebook.com/christopherpenk/posts/1141054762662714

Prob get into trouble for copying and pasting but Christopher wants as many to read anyway and reading it here will save you seeing a smiling Christopher with a grinning Bill

Letter to Jacinda

Dear Jacinda,

I’ve seen you on the telly, dear,
There’s quite a hullabaloo,
But taxing this and taxing that
Means my two ticks stay BLUE

You’ll tax us on our assets
There’s nothing you won’t snatch
You’ll tax us on our holidays
You’ll tax the boat or bach

You’ve said you’ll slap a tax on fuel
So when I need the car
I can’t afford to fill it up
I won’t get very far!

You’ll tax water by the litre
And our farms will hit the wall
Have you forgotten it’s the farmers
Who grow food to feed us all?

You’ve said you’ll tax emissions,
Does that mean mine as well?
If I can’t afford to fart, my dear,
Your tax can go to hell!

You’ll tax us on the things we own
Is nothing off the table?
I dread to think what else you’ll tax
As soon as you are able

I’m told you want a ‘gift’ tax
So the bit I’ve got put by
I can’t give to my grand-kids?
They can kiss my gift good-bye?

You’ll take the joy from giving
And even when I’m dead
You’ll slap me with Inheritance tax
Or take my house instead

Taxing the **** out of all of us
Is just not very nice
And I’m hoping at the polls, my dear,
The Left will pay the price

Truth to tell, Taxinda,
I think you’ve lost the plot
You’ll not get my vote, sweetheart,
My ‘comrade’ you are not!

So thank you for reading my letter,
I’ve got things off my chest
Just leave it up to National, dear…
They really do know best.

So I’ll vote for Mr English
And his team - they’ll get it right!
A pretty smile is not enough
Goodnight, Ms Ardern…….Goodnight

by Val Davis. #PartyVoteNational

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 03:55 PM
Early voting up 300% on the first day .!! But they've made it easier added more polling places in supermarkets etc?

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 04:14 PM
Labour promises 'RNZ+' (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/96745495/Labour-promises-free-to-air-RNZ-TV-channel) I think this is brilliant, another idea who's time has come, free of fake news and advertisements:t_up:

After a 9 year funding freeze from national.
A key component of labours plan is the creation of a new public digital media service, built around RNZ, as fully multiplatform non commercial entity, including a free to air non commercial television service. TVNZ will be kept.

fungus pudding
12-09-2017, 05:15 PM
Newshub poll tonight

Rumour Nats down to 37%

Hope Maori Party is improving seeing we non-Maori can party vote for them if we want

Rumour - not so.
Latest poll has National able to govern alone.
Labour 10 points behind
Winston First 6%
Greens under 5%
English most preferred P.M.
Maori party struggling.

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 05:23 PM
Wow another big twist and turn.:confused:Labour will continue to run a positive campaign. Integrity still intact.

Snow Leopard
12-09-2017, 05:33 PM
Wow another big twist and turn.:confused:Labour will continue to run a positive campaign. Integrity still intact.

Integrity?

Integrity?

Integrity?

The're politicians, JT,

POLITICIANS !!!

Jonboyz
12-09-2017, 05:58 PM
Rumour - not so.
Latest poll has National able to govern alone.
Labour 10 points behind
Winston First 6%
Greens under 5%
English most preferred P.M.
Maori party struggling.

The stardust has settled and The People are seeing more clearly that Labour's vagueness and evasiveness around tax reveals a wishywashy party.

Disc. Ticked blue twice today

minimoke
12-09-2017, 06:03 PM
Rumour - not so.
Latest poll has National able to govern alone.
Labour 10 points behind
Winston First 6%
Greens under 5%
English most preferred P.M.
Maori party struggling.
You missed this bit: National 47.3 and Labour 37.8. Great shame Greens are on 4.9 - I can only hope their trend sinks further given Shaw still supports Turea's deceitful ways.

47.3 plus a few ACT seats might just do it

fungus pudding
12-09-2017, 06:04 PM
The stardust has settled and The People are seeing more clearly that Labour's vagueness and evasiveness around tax reveals a wishywashy party.

Disc. Ticked blue twice today
Good work, although not sure of the wisdom of posting that here. Could cause major depression with eZ who seems to be missing in action. Probably out washing Jacinda's signs, or maybe painting over National's.

fungus pudding
12-09-2017, 06:09 PM
You missed this bit: National 47.3 and Labour 37.8. Great shame Greens are on 4.9 - I can only hope their trend sinks further given Shaw still supports Turea's deceitful ways.

47.3 plus a few ACT seats might just do it

4.9 is better for greens. That gives the highest number of votes to redistribute. Act needs to double current vote to get a second seat. Not impossible but they don't seem to campaign outside of a few locations.

minimoke
12-09-2017, 06:10 PM
4.9 is better for greens. .
I thought the dishonest bludgers had got them to 5% last poll.

Baa_Baa
12-09-2017, 06:39 PM
You missed this bit: National 47.3 and Labour 37.8. Great shame Greens are on 4.9 - I can only hope their trend sinks further given Shaw still supports Turea's deceitful ways.

47.3 plus a few ACT seats might just do it

NewsHub reporting 47.3% = 64 seats in Parliament, only 61 needed to govern alone. Two weeks to go, anything could happen, but this is quite the reversal of fortunes for National, at everyone else's expense, especially Labour.

fungus pudding
12-09-2017, 06:43 PM
NewsHub reporting 47.3% = 64 seats in Parliament, only 61 needed to govern alone. Two weeks to go, anything could happen, but this is quite the reversal of fortunes for National, at everyone else's expense, especially Labour.

Is it a reversal or just a temporary blip deflating?

Bjauck
12-09-2017, 06:44 PM
Maybe Jacinda became Labour Leader two weeks too early. Is the honeymoon with the electorate now over and the veil has been lifted to reveal the same Labour Party that the electorate already knew previously? Has Jazz-cinda become Just-cinda?

fungus pudding
12-09-2017, 06:47 PM
Maybe Jacinda became Labour Leader two weeks too early. Is the honeymoon with the electorate now over and the veil has been lifted to reveal the same Labour Party that the electorate already knew previously? Has Jazz-cinda become Just-cinda?
We can only hope so.

Bjauck
12-09-2017, 06:50 PM
Is it a reversal or just a temporary blip deflating? The National Party share of the vote is back to where it was in June and May Newshub polls. Maybe it was just a new Labour leader blip.

fungus pudding
12-09-2017, 07:04 PM
The National Party share of the vote is back to where it was in June and May Newshub polls. Maybe it was just a new Labour leader blip.
We can only hope so.

winner69
12-09-2017, 07:08 PM
I quoted from this a week or so ago - you can't trust polls

https://www.johnkay.com/2017/06/07/forthcoming-book-explains-not-trust-opinion-polls/

Quota sampling is not the same as random sampling from a population. Rather, it uses a model to estimate from the answers which are received what the answers would have been if the people giving answers had been a random selection from the population. Modern pollsters know that their sample is not in any sense random, and now use sophisticated and complex models to adjust for their failure to achieve randomness. But this confronts the pollsters, and those who want to use their results, with the problem that Mr Viniar had failed to recognise: the probability derived from the model has to be compounded with the probability that the model is itself true. And we have no means of deriving the latter probability, or indeed of attaching meaning to such a probability.We can usefully say things like “the pollsters are very experienced”, or “the model has worked well in the past”. But these are statements about confidence and judgement, not about probabilities.

Baa_Baa
12-09-2017, 07:20 PM
Is it a reversal or just a temporary blip deflating?

For Labour, it looks like a temporary blip deflating. Jacinda will be in a world of hurt, such a rapid rise in popularity but stealing the water <=> support from ANY farmer. Taxing everything to pay for everything promised, without any detail, except the 'ruling outs' (ergo they have tax policy but aren't telling) <=> support from anyone with any assets. The rest of her pitch is wafer thin, deftly put down by National. But I'd still like to see National put up a counter to free tertiary education.

fungus pudding
12-09-2017, 07:28 PM
For Labour, it looks like a temporary blip deflating. Jacinda will be in a world of hurt, such a rapid rise in popularity but stealing the water <=> support from ANY farmer. Taxing everything to pay for everything promised, without any detail, except the 'ruling outs' (ergo they have tax policy but aren't telling) <=> support from anyone with any assets. The rest of her pitch is wafer thin, deftly put down by National. But I'd still like to see National put up a counter to free tertiary education.
Jacinda has magic powers. She is going to run a TV network on $28,000,000 per. annum. Thats clever.
Tertiary education is a bargain at what the students pay.

minimoke
12-09-2017, 08:39 PM
Jacinda has magic powers. She is going to run a TV network on $28,000,000 per. annum. Thats clever.
Tertiary education is a bargain at what the students pay.
If she can do a high speed train from Tauranga to Auckland for $20m then a new TV channel for that kind of money should be achievable.

Until she discovers it isn't and up go the taxes to pay for it all.

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 08:45 PM
Integrity?

Integrity?

Integrity?

The're politicians, JT,

POLITICIANS !!!

If you haven't noticed the difference I'm going to take up a religion and pray for your observation of venus and other front of face things:p

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 08:54 PM
a bit of humour. Ardern grills Gower over poll results 1 hour ago In an awkward turn of events, Ms Ardern took the interviewer role straight after the results were released. (http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/well-that-was-awkward-jacinda-ardern-grills-patrick-gower-over-newshub-reid-poll-results.html)

elZorro
12-09-2017, 09:00 PM
Good work, although not sure of the wisdom of posting that here. Could cause major depression with eZ who seems to be missing in action. Probably out washing Jacinda's signs, or maybe painting over National's.

Close, we're putting up party vote stickers for early voting. Went to a "meet the candidates" meeting tonight, last one they're having. The local Nat MP was there, renewing my efforts to see him gone.

I'm not sure where Newshub got these latest voting intentions from, maybe they didn't ring any townies, just farmers on landlines.

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 09:09 PM
Awaiting the next colmar brunton poll. The fall guy joyce is not going to fool enough kiwis with his dirty mudslinging; got to have faith in whats good ,decent and honest shining through.

Jonboyz
12-09-2017, 09:13 PM
If she can do a high speed train from Tauranga to Auckland for $20m then a new TV channel for that kind of money should be achievable.

Until she discovers it isn't and up go the taxes to pay for it all.

Numbers are'nt her strong point.

elZorro
12-09-2017, 09:16 PM
Awaiting the next colmar brunton poll. The fall guy joyce is not going to fool enough kiwis with his dirty mudslinging; got to have faith in whats good ,decent and honest shining through.

NewsHub is from TV3, owned by Mediaworks, and Mediaworks was formed out of a combination of Radioworks and TV3 in 2004. That's where Joyce got his cash from.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MediaWorks_New_Zealand

He probably helped them out in 2011 with a funding guarantee.

So these Mediaworks people might not be playing it straight. Note that all the votes in this poll add to 100%, they polled some people and discarded all the 'don't knows', to get their figures. That's not realistic, and they should have told us how many were discarded.

Note the timing of this crap poll, it's at the start of early voting and just after Joyce made up some rubbish about Labour's budget figures. This is the sort of thing that Labour is up against, pretty much a corruption of power.

Joshuatree
12-09-2017, 09:26 PM
Yep PT and all take note;ive been consistent about this. Prob timed to try and influence all the early voters ; early voting up 300% on last year. Desperate underhand measures .Treating kiwis with complete disrespect as gormless easy pushovers,
NOT!

Bjauck
12-09-2017, 09:42 PM
I quoted from this a week or so ago - you can't trust polls... Most polls got Brexit, Trump and underestimated the uk election Labour support. If Jacinda has mobilised the youth vote here...maybe normal polling metrics are underestimating Labour here.

Bjauck
12-09-2017, 09:50 PM
NewsHub is from TV3, owned by Mediaworks, and Mediaworks was formed out of a combination of Radioworks and TV3 in 2004. That's where Joyce got his cash from.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MediaWorks_New_Zealand

He probably helped them out in 2011 with a funding guarantee.

So these Mediaworks people might not be playing it straight. Note that all the votes in this poll add to 100%, they polled some people and discarded all the 'don't knows', to get their figures. That's not realistic, and they should have told us how many were discarded.

Note the timing of this crap poll, it's at the start of early voting and just after Joyce made up some rubbish about Labour's budget figures. This is the sort of thing that Labour is up against, pretty much a corruption of power. It's a news hub/Reid poll. How independent are Reid? Wouldn't their reputation be at stake if they did not employ robust polling methods?

Rep
12-09-2017, 10:49 PM
Integrity?

Integrity?

Integrity?

The're politicians, JT,

POLITICIANS !!!
Correction: PaperTiger... it should be they're politicians.

JoshuaTree: Jacinda has honed the positivity of her messaging around change and making an impact - it is too late to be changing that messaging or unmuzzling Kelvin Davis for an attack (and if Trevor Mallard apparently has his sights set on the role of speaker of the house in the next term then he isn't going to do it) - that might backfire so it is pretty much course laid in over the next 2 weeks.

There is enough smoke and noise around the tax working group that has seen that firming of support pause for the moment. Voters usually think they are over taxed and others don't pay enough tax but generally don't vote in additional taxes upon themselves -
some may wish to but think others should pay more would be my observation - any uncertainty about their own bank balance makes voters uneasy.

Having said that, the only poll that counts is the one on election night and I wouldn't be predicting an outcome other than:

TOP isn't likely to get 5% neither will the Conservatives or ACT but David Seymour will probably get Epsom and that will be it.

The Greens should be deeply worried - if they don't get 5% then there are going to be no MPs and no voice in Parliament. The largely post MT campaign has seen James Shaw disappear off hoardings and from what I can see a environmental policy campaign. If they don't get in there will be a lot of soul searching about this campaign - there is some genuine talent in their party list ranks that Labour should be looking to headhunt for 2020.

Potentially we could see the largest wasted vote ever under MMP... you are all smart folk but there are some consequences to those wasted party votes...

Because if the country isn't quite ready for a change now then I really can't see a five term administration unless the opposition collapses between now and then - I genuinely hope for the sake of good government that isn't the case.

fungus pudding
13-09-2017, 05:38 AM
NewsHub is from TV3, owned by Mediaworks, and Mediaworks was formed out of a combination of Radioworks and TV3 in 2004. That's where Joyce got his cash from.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MediaWorks_New_Zealand

He probably helped them out in 2011 with a funding guarantee.

So these Mediaworks people might not be playing it straight. Note that all the votes in this poll add to 100%, they polled some people and discarded all the 'don't knows', to get their figures. That's not realistic, and they should have told us how many were discarded.

Note the timing of this crap poll, it's at the start of early voting and just after Joyce made up some rubbish about Labour's budget figures. This is the sort of thing that Labour is up against, pretty much a corruption of power.

translation. eZ doesn't like this result from the dirty low-down scheming corrupt pigs who Joyce might have helped out once.

blackcap
13-09-2017, 06:04 AM
NewsHub is from TV3, owned by Mediaworks, and Mediaworks was formed out of a combination of Radioworks and TV3 in 2004. That's where Joyce got his cash from.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MediaWorks_New_Zealand

He probably helped them out in 2011 with a funding guarantee.

So these Mediaworks people might not be playing it straight. Note that all the votes in this poll add to 100%, they polled some people and discarded all the 'don't knows', to get their figures. That's not realistic, and they should have told us how many were discarded.

Note the timing of this crap poll, it's at the start of early voting and just after Joyce made up some rubbish about Labour's budget figures. This is the sort of thing that Labour is up against, pretty much a corruption of power.

What a load of rubbish El Zorro, you are spinning again. The Colmar Brunton (yes the one that had Labour in the lead) also adds up to 100% and so they must have discarded some don't so's to get their figures? All polls add up to 100. Its what they do.

minimoke
13-09-2017, 06:13 AM
It's a news hub/Reid poll. How independent are Reid? Wouldn't their reputation be at stake if they did not employ robust polling methods?
Polls are polls and all need ot be taken with a grain of salt, flaws and all. So I'm not to excited about this latest one. I do like the timing though as it will hopefully give those early voters reason to pause and think before the tick the box. On Monday their tick was likely to be picking a Winner which we all like to do. But now Labour might not be the winner so could put off those early voters or slow it down.

I also think Labour has emptied is artillery of big shots so they are as good as it gets. National still has to harness the rural vote which should ripple into the cities. We all know that our economy does rely on those greedy farmers who you only see in town when they are buying their latest car.

minimoke
13-09-2017, 06:17 AM
The largely post MT campaign has seen James Shaw disappear off hoardings and from what I can see a environmental policy campaign. .
I'm a bit surprised by the blank green hoardings. This is obviously a personality election and the Greens should have a figurehead. Shaw doesn't seem like a bad bloke deluded as he is - but someone the Greens could relate to . The risk is their punters could go to the Green side of Labour or the socialist side of TOP. There will of course be the hard core Greens - but enough to get to 5% will be interesting

Joshuatree
13-09-2017, 06:53 AM
Still very close in reality. Colmar Brunton is the most accurate unbiased poll and thats to come

RNZ Poll of Polls mini-updateRNZ's updated polling averages - taking into account tonight's Newshub-Reid Research poll and the Bauer Media Insights IQ poll - has the two major parties neck and neck.
National is ahead on 41.3 percent while Labour is on 40.5 percent.
New Zealand First is on 7.5 percent, the Greens are on 5.5 percent, the Māori Party is on 1.4 percent, the Opportunities Party is on 1.9 percent and ACT is on 0.6 percent.
On these numbers, National would win 51 seats, Labour would get 50, New Zealand First 9, the Greens 7, the Māori Party 2, and one for ACT.
The last full Poll of Polls (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/338948/labour-a-nose-ahead-of-national-on-the-averages) - from Friday - has Labour on 41.8 percent, fractionally ahead of National's 41.1 percent

elZorro
13-09-2017, 06:58 AM
What a load of rubbish El Zorro, you are spinning again. The Colmar Brunton (yes the one that had Labour in the lead) also adds up to 100% and so they must have discarded some don't so's to get their figures? All polls add up to 100. Its what they do.

That's true, TV3 gets Reid Research to do their polling, and TV1 use Colmar Brunton. Both discard the 'don't knows', and the "not saying" results.

But if you look at both firms, they have different methodologies.

Colmar Brunton also use over 1,000 voters who can be called via landlines, the same as Reid Research. Reid Research say that they ensure a representative cross-section by age, sex and geography. Sounds good, doesn't it?

But Colmar Brunton go a step further. They allow for those weightings, but also weight for ethnicity. That's probably quite important. They also weight on household size. In the latest Colmar Brunton poll, the undecided and no answer rate was 10%, they at least released the data.

They also say that because they discard the refusals and undecided to come up with the 100% total, that these polls can only be relied on to reflect voting trends, they cannot be used to predict election results.

But of course that's exactly what the TV channels do with the data. So we're hearing this morning from TV1 reporting on TV3's poll "So what are Labour doing wrong?" and other daft comments. The difference is that polling has started, this shouldn't be a lightweight game being played by the news media now. Why aren't they spending detailed time on policy differences? - but that would be a lot of work.

http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Prelim_1-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-2-6-Sep.pdf

Don't forget that the other weakness in both polling methods is that they only call landlines to make their contacts. Many households that are struggling, have long ago given up their landline and gone to cellular, rather than pay for two systems. All of these people are then off the grid of the pollsters.

In any case, I think I'd trust the Colmar Brunton Poll to get closer to the actual voting trend, and before the TV channels get too much time to sway voters with their latest take, a new TV1 poll will be out in a day or so.

jonu
13-09-2017, 07:46 AM
NewsHub is from TV3, owned by Mediaworks, and Mediaworks was formed out of a combination of Radioworks and TV3 in 2004. That's where Joyce got his cash from.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MediaWorks_New_Zealand

He probably helped them out in 2011 with a funding guarantee.

So these Mediaworks people might not be playing it straight. Note that all the votes in this poll add to 100%, they polled some people and discarded all the 'don't knows', to get their figures. That's not realistic, and they should have told us how many were discarded.

Note the timing of this crap poll, it's at the start of early voting and just after Joyce made up some rubbish about Labour's budget figures. This is the sort of thing that Labour is up against, pretty much a corruption of power.

Take a deep breath EL Z. Those comments are bordering on slanderous. Not only are you saying they are corrupt, you are saying they manipulated the timing of the poll. And if the next poll released by whoever is favourable to Labour all will be sunshine and light again.

I thought the gnashing of teeth from the left was extraordinary after the last election. Looks like they're starting early this time.

winner69
13-09-2017, 07:47 AM
EZ don't forget this about polls - the probability derived from the model has to be compounded with the probability that the model is itself true. And we have no means of deriving the latter probability, or indeed of attaching meaning to such a probability.

Polls just a guide as to what's happening ...and those interested only read into the results what they want to see anyway.

And it fills up the papers / screens and good entertainment eh.

winner69
13-09-2017, 07:53 AM
if the end result is really really close i hope Sainte-Lague doesn't stuff it up

fungus pudding
13-09-2017, 07:56 AM
That's true, TV3 gets Reid Research to do their polling, and TV1 use Colmar Brunton. Both discard the 'don't knows', and the "not saying" results.

But if you look at both firms, they have different methodologies.

Colmar Brunton also use over 1,000 voters who can be called via landlines, the same as Reid Research. Reid Research say that they ensure a representative cross-section by age, sex and geography. Sounds good, doesn't it?

But Colmar Brunton go a step further. They allow for those weightings, but also weight for ethnicity. That's probably quite important. They also weight on household size. In the latest Colmar Brunton poll, the undecided and no answer rate was 10%, they at least released the data.

They also say that because they discard the refusals and undecided to come up with the 100% total, that these polls can only be relied on to reflect voting trends, they cannot be used to predict election results.

But of course that's exactly what the TV channels do with the data. So we're hearing this morning from TV1 reporting on TV3's poll "So what are Labour doing wrong?" and other daft comments. The difference is that polling has started, this shouldn't be a lightweight game being played by the news media now. Why aren't they spending detailed time on policy differences? - but that would be a lot of work.

http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Prelim_1-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-2-6-Sep.pdf

Don't forget that the other weakness in both polling methods is that they only call landlines to make their contacts. Many households that are struggling, have long ago given up their landline and gone to cellular, rather than pay for two systems. All of these people are then off the grid of the pollsters.

In any case, I think I'd trust the Colmar Brunton Poll to get closer to the actual voting trend, and before the TV channels get too much time to sway voters with their latest take, a new TV1 poll will be out in a day or so.

Relax eZ. Only 10 more sleepless nights for you now. In the meantime - have a Kit-kat.

fungus pudding
13-09-2017, 07:58 AM
if the end result is really really close i hope Sainte-Lague doesn't stuff it up

Is kicking it in the direction you want stuffing it up? Toss of a coin really.

winner69
13-09-2017, 08:05 AM
Jacinda says things that sound good .....any substance behind her talk?

She seems a bit confused though as the sound good things seem to be in conflict

Neoliberalism is dead ....overseas companies doing offshore oil drilling and seabed mining OK .....while cleaning up the rivers

craic
13-09-2017, 08:40 AM
More and more people are asking how? We all know about the Education system, the Rivers, the Roads and Rail, Housing, Immigration and all the rest but the current government is attempting to work on some or most of these things with little success because we simply do not have the financial resources to make much progress. No amount of taxation will help - taxation simply takes money from one place and moves it to another. And when you take it from the person who earned it and give it to someone who didn't earn it, then you are in real trouble. Ahern is currently standing in front of the orchestra with a baton in her hand telling the audience about the wonderful music they are about to play. But she has yet to turn around and demonstrate her ability to conduct and even if she is good, a couple of dogs in the orchestra can ruin the whole performance.

couta1
13-09-2017, 08:46 AM
More and more people are asking how? We all know about the Education system, the Rivers, the Roads and Rail, Housing, Immigration and all the rest but the current government is attempting to work on some or most of these things with little success because we simply do not have the financial resources to make much progress. No amount of taxation will help - taxation simply takes money from one place and moves it to another. And when you take it from the person who earned it and give it to someone who didn't earn it, then you are in real trouble. Ahern is currently standing in front of the orchestra with a baton in her hand telling the audience about the wonderful music they are about to play. But she has yet to turn around and demonstrate her ability to conduct and even if she is good, a couple of dogs in the orchestra can ruin the whole performance. Excellent post Craic, especially the bit about tax simply moving money around and giving it to the have nots, don't won't to work brigade.

Joshuatree
13-09-2017, 08:48 AM
Still very close in reality. Colmar Brunton is the most accurate unbiased poll and thats to come

RNZ Poll of Polls mini-update

RNZ's updated polling averages - taking into account tonight's Newshub-Reid Research poll and the Bauer Media Insights IQ poll - has the two major parties neck and neck.
National is ahead on 41.3 percent while Labour is on 40.5 percent.
New Zealand First is on 7.5 percent, the Greens are on 5.5 percent, the Māori Party is on 1.4 percent, the Opportunities Party is on 1.9 percent and ACT is on 0.6 percent.
On these numbers, National would win 51 seats, Labour would get 50, New Zealand First 9, the Greens 7, the Māori Party 2, and one for ACT.
The last full Poll of Polls (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/338948/labour-a-nose-ahead-of-national-on-the-averages) - from Friday - has Labour on 41.8 percent, fractionally ahead of National's 41.1 percent

Centre bet similar ;close.Odds $1.85 labour $1.90 national

blackcap
13-09-2017, 08:54 AM
Centre bet are the same Odds $1.85 labour $1.90 national

That is spin. The odds yesterday were Labour 1.68 and National 2.10 or thereabouts, I should know, I am a Centrebet customer and frequent the site often enough. Labour have moved out in the market and National have shortened.

But the real market is Betfair where Labour were odds on two days ago at 1.50, now they are closer to 2.00

dobby41
13-09-2017, 09:19 AM
Excellent post Craic, especially the bit about tax simply moving money around and giving it to the have nots, don't won't to work brigade.

Unfortunately a lot of the tax goes to schools and health care - both of which I am keen on.
A fair bit goes to propping up the income of those who don't get paid enough - Working for Families. A form of corporate welfare.
The idea that it is no hopers and bludgers that get all the money is very old. Sure some goes that way and, to an extent, it may save them from having to burgle your house (though it may give them more free time to do so for a 'topup').

Tax is always unfair to someone. As someone in the group who pay 24% of the taxes I feel that.
The best way to to grow the pot (not grow pot) but we haven't done a lot of that in the past 9 years. Most growth has been just adding people (immigration) and look where that has gotten Auckland. We need productivity increases and the current Govt doesn't seem to have a plan. They seem to be working on it now that they have a fight but it isn't in the nature of National to come up with new ideas - steady as she goes Bill.

jonu
13-09-2017, 09:33 AM
Unfortunately a lot of the tax goes to schools and health care - both of which I am keen on.
A fair bit goes to propping up the income of those who don't get paid enough - Working for Families. A form of corporate welfare.
The idea that it is no hopers and bludgers that get all the money is very old. Sure some goes that way and, to an extent, it may save them from having to burgle your house (though it may give them more free time to do so for a 'topup').

Tax is always unfair to someone. As someone in the group who pay 24% of the taxes I feel that.
The best way to to grow the pot (not grow pot) but we haven't done a lot of that in the past 9 years. Most growth has been just adding people (immigration) and look where that has gotten Auckland. We need productivity increases and the current Govt doesn't seem to have a plan. They seem to be working on it now that they have a fight but it isn't in the nature of National to come up with new ideas - steady as she goes Bill.

I agree with most of what you say. I wish National had done better. I was not a fan of John Key who I consider a moral jellyfish. Bill however has a strong social conscience and I think he is genuine in working for a "social dividend" as he terms it.

The trouble is...despite my frustrations with National...Labour sure as hell aren't an alternative.

Joshuatree
13-09-2017, 09:36 AM
Correct they are not an alternative; they are the solution.:t_up:

Joshuatree
13-09-2017, 09:53 AM
Housing crisis documentary pulls no punches on eve of election (https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/latest/96755666)
This insightful documentary explains it all re lack of productivity etc dobby etc.amazing to think that from the 30's to the 60's anyone could get a 5% deposit together and a 3% mortgage from the state for 40 years!

From 1960 to now wages went up 59%
Houseprices went up 280%!

In 1979 a schoolteacher earning $13,000 a year could easily buy the average house costing $26,000.!
Now it would take the ENTIRE teachers salary for 11 years to buy an auckland house.

In 1979 a teacher earning $17,360 .A backbencher MP earning $18,000. Now the teacher gets$78,000, the MP $160,000!

Now people are earning less then their parents and houses are way more expensive.

The postoffice was where we diligently saved money.With banking deregulation and foreign banks coming in with an endless supply of money,its now where we spend our money.

777
13-09-2017, 10:06 AM
"From 1960 to now wages went up 59%"

Fake news or at least a typo.

Joshuatree
13-09-2017, 10:10 AM
3rd to bottom line 777
""My dad was a postman and my mum was a factory worker, and yet they were able to build a brand-new house in Christchurch with next-to-no money. All a family like mine had to do back then was to get a five per cent deposit together and then the Government lent them the rest of the money (a State Advances Loan) at three per cent for 40 years."
sign up for the homed newsletter (https://my.stuff.co.nz/register/newsletter?type=StuffHome&cid=StuffHome:editorial)


Back then, housing was seen as essential infrastructure, with home ownership being "the key to a healthy society and a stable democracy".
So what happened? Watch this documentary and you have to think we should have seen this coming. All the signs were there, starting way back in the 1980s and '90s, when we switched from a regulated economy to a market-driven one.
Today, we have a low-wage economy. Since the 1960s wages have increased 59 per cent, but housing has gone up a massive 280 per cent. As Bruce says: "Our market-driven economic system has created huge income inequalities that didn't exist 30 years ago."

jonu
13-09-2017, 10:16 AM
3rd to bottom line 777
""My dad was a postman and my mum was a factory worker, and yet they were able to build a brand-new house in Christchurch with next-to-no money. All a family like mine had to do back then was to get a five per cent deposit together and then the Government lent them the rest of the money (a State Advances Loan) at three per cent for 40 years."
sign up for the homed newsletter (https://my.stuff.co.nz/register/newsletter?type=StuffHome&cid=StuffHome:editorial)


Back then, housing was seen as essential infrastructure, with home ownership being "the key to a healthy society and a stable democracy".
So what happened? Watch this documentary and you have to think we should have seen this coming. All the signs were there, starting way back in the 1980s and '90s, when we switched from a regulated economy to a market-driven one.
Today, we have a low-wage economy. Since the 1960s wages have increased 59 per cent, but housing has gone up a massive 280 per cent. As Bruce says: "Our market-driven economic system has created huge income inequalities that didn't exist 30 years ago."

Requoting it doesn't make it right JT. Either 59% is some sort of inflation adjusted figure or it is horribly wrong. Even taking the 13k from '79 (not the 60's) it is still 200% or so out.

winner69
13-09-2017, 10:23 AM
That deposit was often got by capitalising your Family Benefit (the few bucks Mum got each week for looking after the kids)

Question then JT - are advocating Jacinda build 30,000 or whatever new homes (at a affordable cost) and then finance families into them with a low deposit and low interest rate loans.



Jacinda literally won't build the homes ...she'll only see that they get built.

BlackPeter
13-09-2017, 10:29 AM
.

Jacinda literally won't build the homes ...she'll only see that they get built.

Not quite so - Jacinda will not see that they get build, she only talks about her seeing that they get build.

Joshuatree
13-09-2017, 10:37 AM
Last i looked National have absolutely no plans or details about their big build of 30,000 let alone affordable ones.

winner69
13-09-2017, 10:41 AM
Requoting it doesn't make it right JT. Either 59% is some sort of inflation adjusted figure or it is horribly wrong. Even taking the 13k from '79 (not the 60's) it is still 200% or so out.

Must be inflation adjusted ...if so hope they inflation adjusted both eh

From stuff I have - ......1994 estimated average house and land package price has increased 248% while the average employee's gross annual income has increased 101%.

So a gap does exist, no question

But no worries - Jacinda is going to build a lot of lower cost houses (and not put a margin on them) to reduce the gap.

winner69
13-09-2017, 10:42 AM
Last i looked National have absolutely no plans or details about their big build of 30,000 let alone affordable ones.

...my question was - does Jacinda?

Hasn't told me about it if she does.


Is Phil still talking 100,000 ?

Joshuatree
13-09-2017, 10:43 AM
Yes prob inflation adjusted 777. Its not pro national or labour imo; just explaining whats happened and looking at solutions. Im very surprised that there is no data to let us know how many foreigners have and are buying.This can have an impact on prices and demand.

EMBRACING ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONSBut there are alternatives to traditional home ownership, and New Zealand needs to embrace these.

Bruce presents a co-operative housing scheme in Germany. The upside? No landlord can evict you. The downside? Your money is locked in there for a minimum 18 months and you can't sell your shares in the building for more than you paid for them.

Affordable long-term leasing is another option. Post-war construction in Berlin saw many such buildings made available to tenants, who can live there for life, decorating their home however they wish. Both the State and private companies have invested in the scheme.

Such a scheme seems like a solution for New Zealand. But it's not about "mum and dad" landlords and damp, poorly insulated rentals – it's about institutional investment from sources, such as KiwiSaver and the NZ Super Fund and ACC.

But first, says Bruce, we need that data. Then we can create the "essential" infrastructure. And it will undoubtedly include high-rise living options for families, which in turn, will demand more innovative thinking from our regulatory bodies – and fast tracking.

Bruce is right. When it comes to the question, who really owns New Zealand now?, we deserve a better answer than "I don't know".

This documentary, screening so close to a general election, will surely ramp up the conversation about the housing crisis. Just watch those promises come trotting out, but at least we now know what they should be saying

craic
13-09-2017, 10:48 AM
A simple fact about wages and house costs. I arrived here early in 1960 and went to work at Fords in Gracefield. My wage as a car assembler was seven shilling and an extra fourpence an hour if you were on time every day. A section in those days averaged 1,000 pounds and a house with State advances cost 3000 pounds.Ten shillings changed to one dollar so seven shillings became 70 cents.so the inflation is in the mid 200's from 1960.Most people saved to buy the section and then went for the State loan. The universal child benefit of fifteen shillings per week could be capitalised for an amount limited to one and a half children. I had the great good fortune to get in on this scheme after I had gone up in the world and only just qualified on my past years salary. A couple of oil shocks saw me going to State Advances to double or triple my repayments but they wouldn't agree.

zacman
13-09-2017, 11:50 AM
Excellent post Craic, especially the bit about tax simply moving money around and giving it to the have nots, don't won't to work brigade.

A common misstatement.

According to the governments own budget figures 13% of your tax dollar went on social security and welfare (I assume plenty of them wanted to work)! 17% went on National Super !!! The two biggest expenses were health at 21% and education at 17%

zacman

minimoke
13-09-2017, 11:53 AM
"From 1960 to now wages went up 59%"

Fake news or at least a typo.
The Labour cost index was about 700 in 1995 and in 2017 is 1150 so there's a 64% increase in just 2 decades

777
13-09-2017, 11:56 AM
For info

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator

minimoke
13-09-2017, 12:05 PM
[QUOTE=Joshuatree;683852]Yes prob inflation adjusted 777./QUOTE]
Inflation has trended down since 1976 while wages have trended up.

minimoke
13-09-2017, 12:16 PM
Last i looked National have absolutely no plans or details about their big build of 30,000 let alone affordable ones.
Points of reference are sometimes handy.

I was one of the fortunates who grew up in a brand new 4 bedroom affordable home on a 800sqm section. Mum as i recall got the DPB (but she also worked so not sure how that plays out) and i think it was financed through a state advances loan. One neighbour was a dutch migrant, there was a family of poms, a maori family and one lot that had the police visit from time to time.

Just checked the latest RV and it comes in at $405,000. Seems afforable to me.

Joshuatree
13-09-2017, 12:18 PM
THE ISSUE"The Kiwi Dream of homeownership is slipping away. Only a quarter of adults under 40 own their own home, compared to half in 1991. Too few houses are being built, which is helping to drive up prices beyond the reach of middle New Zealand, and too few of the houses that are built are affordably priced for new home buyers.
In Auckland, despite more than 13,000 new houses being needed to keep up with population growth, just 9,400 new houses were consented in the past year. The trend for new consents is falling when a dramatic increase is needed.
The Government’s estimate that only 5% of new builds are priced in the lowest quartile means fewer than 500 affordable houses will be built in Auckland this year.
LABOUR WILL PARTNER WITH THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO BUILD 100,000 AFFORDABLE HOMESKiwiBuild will deliver 100,000 affordable houses over ten years for first home buyers. Half of these will be built in Auckland. That is a ten-fold increase in the number of affordable houses being built in Auckland each year, from 500 to 5,000.
The stand-alone KiwiBuild homes in Auckland will be priced at $500,000-$600,000 with apartments and terraced houses under $500,000. Outside of Auckland prices are likely to range from $300,000-$500,000. These will be high-quality homes built to modern standards. Scale and modern offsite manufacturing techniques will enable these homes to be built at low cost.
Currently, 2-3 bedroom houses are being built at Hobsonville and Waimahia and sold for under $550,000. KiwiBuild will enable more homes to be built in this price range.
KiwiBuild homes will only be sold to first home buyers. To avoid buyers reaping windfall gains, a condition of sale will require them to hand back any capital gain if sold on within 5 years.
Construction of the KiwiBuild houses will be financed by an initial $2 billion capital injection, which will be recycled as the houses are sold, and returned to the Crown at the end of the KiwiBuild programme. The Affordable Housing Authority will be the primary delivery mechanism for KiwiBuild homes, building them as part of its development projects"

xafalcon
13-09-2017, 12:41 PM
KiwiBuild will deliver 100,000 affordable houses over ten years for first home buyers. Half of these will be built in Auckland. That is a ten-fold increase in the number of affordable houses being built in Auckland each year, from 500 to 5,000.
The stand-alone KiwiBuild homes in Auckland will be priced at $500,000-$600,000 with apartments and terraced houses under $500,000. Outside of Auckland prices are likely to range from $300,000-$500,000. These will be high-quality homes built to modern standards. Scale and modern offsite manufacturing techniques will enable these homes to be built at low cost.
Currently, 2-3 bedroom houses are being built at Hobsonville and Waimahia and sold for under $550,000. KiwiBuild will enable more homes to be built in this price range.
KiwiBuild homes will only be sold to first home buyers. To avoid buyers reaping windfall gains, a condition of sale will require them to hand back any capital gain if sold on within 5 years.
Construction of the KiwiBuild houses will be financed by an initial $2 billion capital injection, which will be recycled as the houses are sold, and returned to the Crown at the end of the KiwiBuild programme. The Affordable Housing Authority will be the primary delivery mechanism for KiwiBuild homes, building them as part of its development projects"

Where will the builders, plumbers, roofers, scaffolders, plasterers, carpet layers, electricians, excavators, inspectors, drain layers, painters, paper hangers, landscapers come from to support this vision/dream?

Training takes years, importing skills hasn't worked, and won't work because wages in NZ are lower than other countries who are trying to encourage the same trades to work in their country

The taxpayer has no business getting involved with building houses, period. Let alone with no reward for the risk (dodgy builders, substandard materials, ghetto creation etc)

The "dream" of owning your own house is achievable if compromises are made - including moving to a different city. Tony Alexander hit the nail on the head a few months back. Adjust your spending to suit your goals. Although stereotyped, the current generation wants far more than previous generations but hasn't realized that they need to pay for it

The "housing crisis" was not created by the government. It can't be "fixed" by the government. Economics 101, supply & demand. For many years after the GFC, supply was very low. We are seeing the effects in the last few years as competition for a limited resource bids up the price

Removing depreciation from rental accommodation had a retarding effect on new builds - what other business can't claim depreciation? Note that depreciation claims were clawed back on sale, so were only really a "loan", which increased affordability

Maybe a significant tax break for new non-owner-occupied dwelling construction would be a solution that would actually work without exposing the taxpayer to yet another Saudi Sheep deal aka KiwiBuild

But still doesn't solve the skilled labour shortage

minimoke
13-09-2017, 12:56 PM
I watched most of that housing programme last night. What labour wont do is adress the problem with the couple in the car who had 4 kids.

I have no problem with them having four kids. But why does it now become my problem when they figure out a roof over their heads might be handy.

Bjauck
13-09-2017, 01:10 PM
...
The "dream" of owning your own house is achievable if compromises are made - including moving to a different city. Tony Alexander hit the nail on the head a few months back. Adjust your spending to suit your goals. Although stereotyped, the current generation wants far more than previous generations but hasn't realized that they need to pay for itPresumably the new city would have to have employment opportunities and a social network to replace family and friends left behind.

House prices have outstipped the growth in incomes and consequently the amount for a deposit needed to be raised has become more unaffordable over the years. So the current generation wants the same but it is now more unaffordable to get into! Yet the older generations tell them they should settle for less (a small apartment in a block of flats) that is more unaffordable than the stand alone house that older generations were able to get into!



The "housing crisis" was not created by the government. It can't be "fixed" by the government. Economics 101, supply & demand. For many years after the GFC, supply was very low. We are seeing the effects in the last few years as competition for a limited resource bids up the price Disagree. Tax policy, Lack of restrictions on overseas foreign ownership and inability to supply sufficient new residential land for dwellings is the responsibility of government both local and national.


Removing depreciation from rental accommodation had a retarding effect on new builds - what other business can't claim depreciation? Note that depreciation claims were clawed back on sale, so were only really a "loan", which increased affordability I agree. It may have encouraged more people to landbank rather than develop and improve. (another government failure?)


Maybe a significant tax break for new non-owner-occupied dwelling construction would be a solution that would actually work without exposing the taxpayer to yet another Saudi Sheep deal aka KiwiBuild If you encourege Landlord building, then that is accepting that a significant number of people will be tenants. In that scenario, tenancy laws need to be overhauled to provide good tenants with greater security of tenure and ability to personalise their tenanted houses.


But still doesn't solve the skilled labour shortage NZ should aim to be a high income, high productivity economy.

xafalcon
13-09-2017, 01:10 PM
And to focus on farmers being dragged into the ETS, I say this is 100% fair game, and they should pay 100% of their liability back-dated a decade

The situation that exists now is the famers don't pay their emission's costs, the taxpayer does. Yet we taxpayers are constantly told (again this morning), that prices for the goods produced by those same farmers we are subsidizing are rising due to NZ's export driven market. (Stats NZ press release)

Joe public pays twice, Freddy farmer doesn't pay at all. Enough is enough

If NZ taxpayer covers ETS costs for farmers, those same primary products cant be sold to NZ taxpayers at full export value (I would argue well above full export price if French butter at Countdown is cheaper than NZ butter)

Better still, scrap the ETS entirely. It doesn't actually do anything to improve emissions anyway, just another tax. But that's not on the agenda

minimoke
13-09-2017, 01:30 PM
Better still, scrap the ETS entirely. It doesn't actually do anything to improve emissions anyway, just another tax. But that's not on the agenda



Exactly. There is not a single shred of evidence that the ETS will make the slightest difference to climate change. Its a tax that should never have been implemented and should be immediately binned.

xafalcon
13-09-2017, 01:36 PM
Presumably the new city would have to have employment opportunities and a social network to replace family and friends left behind.

Labour statistics show better employment prospects outside Auckland. Skype allows me to stay in close contact with people on the otherside of the world


House prices have outstipped the growth in incomes and consequently the amount for a deposit needed to be raised has become more unaffordable over the years. So the current generation wants the same but it is now more unaffordable to get into! Yet the older generations tell them they should settle for less (a small apartment in a block of flats) that is more unaffordable than the stand alone house that older generations were able to get into!

Has been the situation for several generations now. My parents first house was much more lavish than mine. I'm 50


Disagree. Tax policy, Lack of restrictions on overseas foreign ownership and inability to supply sufficient new residential land for dwellings is the responsibility of government both local and national.

I suggest MMP may be the cause of 1 & 3, but disagree that any changes palatable to Joe Public could have been enacted (eg tax breaks, compulsory acquisition). But foreign ownership has been shown to have almost zero bearing


If you encourege Landlord building, then that is accepting that a significant number of people will be tenants. In that scenario, tenancy laws need to be overhauled to provide good tenants with greater security of tenure and ability to personalise their tenanted houses.

I am a landlord with 1 rental. Owned since 1993. Had 2 separate tenancies that lasted over 10 years each. I resisted raising the rent so they wouldn't consider move out. They respected my house, I respected their privacy. Good tenants are worth gold, more than an extra $30 per week IMO. I'm sure I'm not alone with these thoughts. But when I did get a bad tenant (mid 90's) it was incredibly frustrating going through the process to get them out.

Have you ever had to pick broken glass beer bottles out of the lawn by hand, so that future tenants don't get cut to bits? I spent half a day doing jus that, getting abandoned (and locked up) car towed away, removing candle wax from carpet, repairing holes in walls. The bond didn't cover it all

Tenancy laws are just fine where they are now


NZ should aim to be a high income, high productivity economy.

Agree with high income, but we aren't there yet and won't be for years.

Productivity reflects the economic base of a country. NZ is heavily agricultural and services. Productivity gains are almost impossible to achieve (can't produce more output with less labour input as mechanization/automation options just don't exist as they do for manufacturing). Productivity comparisons with other countries are therefore meaningless

artemis
13-09-2017, 01:56 PM
Where will the builders, plumbers, roofers, scaffolders, plasterers, carpet layers, electricians, excavators, inspectors, drain layers, painters, paper hangers, landscapers come from to support this vision/dream?

Training takes years, importing skills hasn't worked, and won't work because wages in NZ are lower than other countries who are trying to encourage the same trades to work in their country

The taxpayer has no business getting involved with building houses, period. Let alone with no reward for the risk (dodgy builders, substandard materials, ghetto creation etc) .......

Before there is a need for tradies there must be developers. And their bankers. For the life of me I cannot see why developers would commit to building such a huge number of so-called affordable homes, unless they are being heavily subsidised to do so. Why would they wear the risk unless there is decent reward. Think of the developers that went belly up in the GFC. And prices dropping in Christchurch and levelling off elsewhere as supply comes onstream. And immigration also dropping under some party policies.

Developers are better off putting their resources where the reward is, or scaling down.

Bjauck
13-09-2017, 02:03 PM
Labour statistics show better employment prospects outside Auckland. Skype allows me to stay in close contact with people on the otherside of the world Having to move city just to be able to buy house sounds like the mark of a failing society. Granny can babysit via skype?


Has been the situation for several generations now. ...Really? So a sleeping pod will be a desirable residence eventually? I thought the average dwelling size had been increasing at one stage.


But foreign ownership has been shown to have almost zero bearing. Have you got any references or links to independent studies on that? Why do many other countries have controls? NZ has not bothered collecting much of the information needed until recently.


Tenancy laws are just fine where they are now if they do, then the Kiwi dream of being owner-occupiers will remain, and for many this is increasinlgy unachievable, and renting for many will be a poor insecure substitute.

xafalcon
13-09-2017, 02:15 PM
Before there is a need for tradies there must be developers. And their bankers. For the life of me I cannot see why developers would commit to building such a huge number of so-called affordable homes, unless they are being heavily subsidised to do so. Why would they wear the risk unless there is decent reward. Think of the developers that went belly up in the GFC. And prices dropping in Christchurch and levelling off elsewhere as supply comes onstream. And immigration also dropping under some party policies.

Developers are better off putting their resources where the reward is, or scaling down.

My understanding was that Labour if elected would be underwriting, called their KiwiBuild policy. Would probably require a new government department to be created that coordinates developers, landowners, buyers, local body councils etc

But I'm only guessing, there isn't much detail available publicly to explain how it will work

But I know labour constraints are real and limiting building rates already, let alone with a 33% increase in annual builds

fungus pudding
13-09-2017, 02:20 PM
Agree with high income, but we aren't there yet and won't be for years.



And we never will be without matching inflation. Although 'low wage economy' has become a bit of a mantra, how true is it? We're certainly better off than many countries I've been to. Have a look at U.S.A incomes for a start.

xafalcon
13-09-2017, 02:44 PM
Having to move city just to be able to buy house sounds like the mark of a failing society. Granny can babysit via skype?

No, it's choosing to move city to buy a house (or choosing to stay in Auckland (for example) and delay/forego the house purchase). Has nothing to do with a failing society

Having a baby is a personal responsibility. Enter when ready. It's another trade-off, one that we personally made many years ago. Having children when we could afford it and give them the environment they deserved. We made many sacrifices, no restaurant meals, living in a cheap (cold) farm cottage, two jobs, home made lunches, no lattes, spending holidays working another job etc. Nobody said home ownership was going to be easy


Really? So a sleeping pod will be a desirable residence eventually? I thought the average dwelling size had been increasing at one stage.

Everyone has their own definition of desirability. Owning a sleeping pod may be preferential to sharing a rental for a single young person. Personal choice

I had also heard the same about increasing dwelling size. But I fail to see any relevance to this discussion - your point was the younger generation was paying more money for less house, not more house


Have you got any references or links to independent studies on that? Why do many other countries have controls? NZ has not bothered collecting much of the information needed until recently.

Try MBIE, they published something 6 months or so ago

Xenophobia, something I hope NZ does not get involved with. And it doesn't seem to work in Aussie, Sydney and Melbourne similarly unaffordable to Auckland


if they do, then the Kiwi dream of being owner-occupiers will remain, and for many this is increasinlgy unachievable, and renting for many will be a poor insecure substitute.

When we rented we never felt insecure. My tenants have never felt insecure, except for those boys that stopped paying rent and damaged my house.

The landlord - tenant relationship is 2 way. Respect from both sides leads to a mutually beneficial relationship. I used to get Christmas cards from one of my long term tenants I mentioned above. I watched as the student who first rented my house had a partner move in, got married, had 2 children, and added a dog and a cat. They asked if they could customize the house which I supported if done tastefully (which it was). Everybody wins

Don't believe all the media hype about bad landlords. Most are very good, and simply want a retirement nest egg

xafalcon
13-09-2017, 02:57 PM
And we never will be without matching inflation. Although 'low wage economy' has become a bit of a mantra, how true is it? We're certainly better off than many countries I've been to. Have a look at U.S.A incomes for a start.

The relationship between inflation and increasing income may (or may not) be another broken pre-GFC economic model

I can see the situation of reducing net immigration (NZ-Aus relative economic strength moving back in Aus favour) and a NZ population remaining unwilling to accept price increases, leading to increased wages without significant non-tradable inflation increase, and tradable inflation is showing zero signs of increasing

Then there are the equal-pay settlements than will permeate the job market. Those are meaningful increases

But yes, I totally agree, NZ is better than most of the rest of the world in so many ways. I feel very lucky to be a kiwi

BlackPeter
13-09-2017, 03:16 PM
And we never will be without matching inflation. Although 'low wage economy' has become a bit of a mantra, how true is it? We're certainly better off than many countries I've been to. Have a look at U.S.A incomes for a start.

Agree with that. I remember that we hired (must be now 10 years ago) highly skilled people from Germany - and our (NZ) company paid them a better salary than what they got in the same job previously back in Germany.

We are not a low wage country anymore - it is only our productivity which still fits in many sectors better to the "low wage" category.

Time for the unions and for Labour to stop telling porkies ...

Bjauck
13-09-2017, 03:23 PM
No, it's choosing to move city to buy a house (or choosing to stay in Auckland (for example) and delay/forego the house purchase). Has nothing to do with a failing society If you want a secure home in a stable environment for your family in your home city, where your good job and family are, and the only option is to rent, subject to the current NZ tenancy laws, and risk a lottery of an eviction despite being a good tenant, that is the mark of a failing society imo.


...Nobody said home ownership was going to be easy Of course not. Nobody said it was going to get more and more difficult either.



I had also heard the same about increasing dwelling size. But I fail to see any relevance to this discussion - your point was the younger generation was paying more money for less house, not more house I thought you had said that dwelling sizes had been getting smaller for successive generations. Apologies if I misunderstood your point.


Xenophobia, something I hope NZ does not get involved with. And it doesn't seem to work in Aussie, Sydney and Melbourne similarly unaffordable to Auckland I disagree. There is a difference in ensuring that your own residents and citizens have preferential access to housing in their own country and the hatred of foreigners. However being outpriced in the housing market and ending up as tenants to absentee foreign landlords could give rise to resentment.


Don't believe all the media hype about bad landlords. Most are very good, and simply want a retirement nest egg True, but even good landlords can evict good tenants? It is a pity that the NZ system has resulted in so little of the NZ household nest egg in financial investments such as pension funds, stocks and shares.

westerly
13-09-2017, 03:47 PM
And we never will be without matching inflation. Although 'low wage economy' has become a bit of a mantra, how true is it? We're certainly better off than many countries I've been to. Have a look at U.S.A incomes for a start.

Have a look at OECD data and you might change your mind

westerly

blackcap
13-09-2017, 04:13 PM
Have a look at OECD data and you might change your mind

westerly

We have one of the highest minimum wages in the world.

winner69
13-09-2017, 04:44 PM
Looks like Ms Grizzleguts is on One News tonight

Pressure on

Love it

blackcap
13-09-2017, 04:51 PM
Looks like Ms Grizzleguts is on One News tonight

Pressure on

Love it

Who is Ms Grizzleguts? No don't tell me, I am about to watch the news shortly. :) Will try and deduce who you mean by that.

Bjauck
13-09-2017, 05:03 PM
We have one of the highest minimum wages in the world.
It is true...higher than some lower than others.
https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=RMW

Our real minimum in ppp terms is above Canada's but below Australia's.

minimoke
13-09-2017, 05:04 PM
We have one of the highest minimum wages in the world.
And still they bang on about the "living wage" which has only increased wage costs with no increase in productivity

777
13-09-2017, 05:22 PM
Looks like Ms Grizzleguts is on One News tonight

Pressure on

Love it

Well Helen will be next.

elZorro
13-09-2017, 06:08 PM
I watched most of that housing programme last night. What labour wont do is adress the problem with the couple in the car who had 4 kids.

I have no problem with them having four kids. But why does it now become my problem when they figure out a roof over their heads might be handy.

Because one day you could get into the same position, and in any case a society is judged on how it looks after the most powerless.

Decently paid jobs are the problem in general, for that we need good profit margins for businesses, and that means innovation. National doesn't quite know what that means.

Ardern calling National out on the lies and fearmongering. (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11921785)

minimoke
13-09-2017, 06:48 PM
Because one day you could get into the same position, I generally wont (barring natural disasters, as I have a back up plan

and in any case a society is judged on how it looks after the most powerless. A person who sticks his dick somewhere is not poweless


Decently paid jobs are the problem in general, for that we need good profit margins for businesses, and that means innovation. National doesn't quite know what that means.

Ardern calling National out on the lies and fearmongering. (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11921785)

Innovation is the answer eh? The basics of making a profit is you keep expenses under income. You cant do that when taxes go up and wages go up to Living Wage where there is no increase in productivity.

elZorro
13-09-2017, 07:00 PM
Innovation is the answer eh? The basics of making a profit is you keep expenses under income. You cant do that when taxes go up and wages go up to Living Wage where there is no increase in productivity.

Innovation can allow productivity, and it allows a margin. Then employers don't need to pay just above the minimum wage. Taxes are generally applied to profits, and GST is tax neutral to a business. I guess I am talking about exporting businesses, an ideal where foreign exchange is being brought in. Allied to those, the service businesses they'll need.

jonu
13-09-2017, 07:07 PM
GST is tax neutral to a business.

Not if it's making money

Bjauck
13-09-2017, 07:10 PM
I generally wont (barring natural disasters, as I have a back up plan
A person who sticks his dick somewhere is not poweless Only if you believe in phallocentrism.

Truly powerful men and women look after the suffering, those down on their luck, the weak and needy.


Innovation is the answer eh? The basics of making a profit is you keep expenses under income. You cant do that when taxes go up and wages go up to Living Wage where there is no increase in productivity. Increasing the living wage with static productivity, redistributes wealth reversing the trend in the gini disparity. Is stagnating productivity the result of inefficient and ineffective investment of capital in NZ?

fungus pudding
13-09-2017, 07:14 PM
Not if it's making money

True. If it's making money GST improves the profit by providing interest free use of money.

elZorro
13-09-2017, 09:06 PM
What's National done now? Anything for a quick fundraising buck.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/13/46657/national-mp-trained-by-chinese-spies

jonu
13-09-2017, 10:00 PM
What's National done now? Anything for a quick fundraising buck.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/13/46657/national-mp-trained-by-chinese-spies

EL Z you really are raking the muck now. One bad poll and the true colours start to show.

fungus pudding
13-09-2017, 10:04 PM
What's National done now? Anything for a quick fundraising buck.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/13/46657/national-mp-trained-by-chinese-spies


I wouldn't let that one go eZ. Something for you to really get stuck into. Thanks for bringing it to our attention. Nobody other than you listens to the radio or TV or reads papers.

Joshuatree
13-09-2017, 10:18 PM
This could be from The 101 Things To Do With A Dead Cat by Crosby Texture;)

On the day of the second leaders debate, Mr Joyce made the $11.7B claim, forcing the question of Labour's fiscal reliability to be raised in front of an audience of a million viewers.
Twenty-four hours after Mr Joyce raised the fiscal spectre, all seven senior economists Newshub spoke to said there's no $11.7B hole - but some would raise questions over how tight Labour's budget could be in future years.
If it was an attempt to create a distraction, the aim would be to swing the focus onto Labour's economics; its tax plan and fiscals instead of its new leader.
But if it was a dead cat attempt, Auckland University political studies lecturer Mark Boyd believes it's backfired.
"If it's that kind of thing, where you throw a cat on the table and everyone goes, 'Look at the dead cat', instead of the fire in the background, then it hasn't consumed all of the oxygen in the room," Mr Boyd told Newshub.
Mr Boyd said he believes, "If Crosby Textor was involved [...] they would put more planning into it. This seems to have been done on the fly."
"I think National's scrambling. They are in unknown territory. Six weeks ago they were cruising to victory. Like 2014, it was just a question over whether they would get enough to govern in their own right or whether they would stitch together a coalition."

Joshuatree
13-09-2017, 10:50 PM
"From 1960 to now wages went up 59%"

Fake news or at least a typo.

Reference the CTU Bill Rosenberg

artemis
14-09-2017, 06:18 AM
..... Decently paid jobs are the problem in general, for that we need good profit margins for businesses, and that means innovation. National doesn't quite know what that means.......

In the not too distant future we will have proportionally more well paid jobs. Because automation.

Once automation innovation becomes cost effective in a sector, actual humans will be laid off.

It's been happening for years of course. In my first job way back in the day the accounts section - a huge room with more than 30 desks - was overtaken by a new computer system. Five desks against one wall. Automation is only getting smarter and cheaper. Take robotic kiwifruit pickers, now going into production with plans to add functionality such as testing and other produce.

Employers facing national awards and increasing compliance might quite like fewer human workers.

minimoke
14-09-2017, 06:28 AM
Reference the CTU Bill Rosenberg
Average wage in 1960 was $30 a week including overtime. The average wage for a public servant in 2017 is $1473 inc overtime

Bjauck
14-09-2017, 06:46 AM
Average wage in 1960 was $30 a week including overtime. The average wage for a public servant in 2017 is $1473 inc overtime
According to the CPI - £1 in 1960 bought what $44 can buy today.

With housing, £1 in 1960 bought what you need $176 for today. Those public servants would have been able to afford to buy housing without needing several extra incomes?

elZorro
14-09-2017, 07:02 AM
In the not too distant future we will have proportionally more well paid jobs. Because automation.

Once automation innovation becomes cost effective in a sector, actual humans will be laid off.

It's been happening for years of course. In my first job way back in the day the accounts section - a huge room with more than 30 desks - was overtaken by a new computer system. Five desks against one wall. Automation is only getting smarter and cheaper. Take robotic kiwifruit pickers, now going into production with plans to add functionality such as testing and other produce.

Employers facing national awards and increasing compliance might quite like fewer human workers.

Correct, up to a point. That's why I believe innovation should be directed at smaller businesses, not the already large ones. Callaghan Innovation has plenty of taxpayer funds to give to large outfits, who don't need it and will spend most of it on new automation, reducing staff levels.

If you split the same money up and offer it to smaller businesses, they'll develop new exports and will have to take on more staff to do it. Labour's R&D tax credits were a simple way of doing that, hopefully within a few days they'll be back on the table for numerous SMEs.

Followup on polling techniques to phone lines:

In 2014 about 86% of households had a landline phone, it was dropping (Stats NZ). Since then it's down another 25%, or only about 65% of households reachable on a listed landline, according to this article.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11894517

Rep
14-09-2017, 07:08 AM
According to the CPI - £1 in 1960 bought what $44 can buy today.

With housing, £1 in 1960 bought what you need $176 for today. Those public servants would have been able to afford to buy housing without needing several extra incomes?

It's an interesting illustration but I'd make the observation about the size and specification of housing. Most homes in the early 1960s were modest 3 bedroom wooden homes (or brick and tile or even fibrolite cladding) with one bathroom, one WC, a laminate or wood finished kitchen with one sink and a basic Atlas electric range.

Hot water - electric with pressure reducer.

They were typically heated with an open fireplace, wooden joinery and particle board flooring. Lighting was often confined to single incandescent bulb per room.

That's quite different from what we expect from housing today.

winner69
14-09-2017, 07:18 AM
Richard hits it on the head

Its Jacinda and 'I' and not Labour and 'we' - dangerous

Hope many read this

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11921804

Labour's policy under Andrew Little was to have a tax review. Labour would take any recommendations to the voters at the next election. Kelvin Davies set out the policy on TV only to be publicly slapped down by Jacinda.

In a "captain's call" Jacinda changed the tax policy to say that a Labour victory was a mandate for Labour to introduce any new tax and at any rate that a nameless committee of "tax experts" recommended, just the family home is off limits.

artemis
14-09-2017, 07:36 AM
Correct, up to a point. That's why I believe innovation should be directed at smaller businesses, not the already large ones. Callaghan Innovation has plenty of taxpayer funds to give to large outfits, who don't need it and will spend most of it on new automation, reducing staff levels.

If you split the same money up and offer it to smaller businesses, they'll develop new exports and will have to take on more staff to do it. Labour's R&D tax credits were a simple way of doing that, hopefully within a few days they'll be back on the table for numerous SMEs.....

Absolutely nothing stopping SMEs from applying to Callaghan. In fact they have a specific programme for start ups.

And because Callaghan are technology oriented businesses that receive grants are quite likely to extend .... automation.

I mentioned robotic kiwifruit pickers earlier. 24 hours up time. A good opportunity for those farmers to group together for the capital expenditure.

fungus pudding
14-09-2017, 08:06 AM
In the not too distant future we will have proportionally more well paid jobs. Because automation.

Once automation innovation becomes cost effective in a sector, actual humans will be laid off.

It's been happening for years of course. In my first job way back in the day the accounts section - a huge room with more than 30 desks - was overtaken by a new computer system. Five desks against one wall. Automation is only getting smarter and cheaper. Take robotic kiwifruit pickers, now going into production with plans to add functionality such as testing and other produce.

Employers facing national awards and increasing compliance might quite like fewer human workers.

Have a look around - plenty of occupations that didn't exist 25 or 50 years ago.

fungus pudding
14-09-2017, 08:10 AM
Absolutely nothing stopping SMEs from applying to Callaghan. In fact they have a specific programme for start ups.

And because Callaghan are technology oriented businesses that receive grants are quite likely to extend .... automation.

I mentioned robotic kiwifruit pickers earlier. 24 hours up time. A good opportunity for those farmers to group together for the capital expenditure.

Nothing to stop SME's from doing what they want. Those with initiative and drive will get there.

Joshuatree
14-09-2017, 08:48 AM
I mentioned robotic kiwifruit pickers earlier. 24 hours up time. A good opportunity for those farmers to group together for the capital expenditure.

That will help stop the official slave labour status that NZ has become. Robots fixing a problem that national have avoided(yet another).
Robots will pay tax as well.If they get an IRD number maybe they could claim person status as well:confused::D

dobby41
14-09-2017, 08:51 AM
If they get an IRD number maybe they could claim person status as well:confused::D

Rivers do and I'd argue Robots should have more rights.

minimoke
14-09-2017, 09:24 AM
In a "captain's call" Jacinda changed the tax policy to say that a Labour victory was a mandate for Labour to introduce any new tax and at any rate that a nameless committee of "tax experts" recommended, just the family home is off limits.
[/I]
The family home will be of limits until the tax experts say it should be included.

(And the experts will say it has to be included. Otherwise you leave a loop hole that will see capital flow more onto the home rather than other productive assets)

fungus pudding
14-09-2017, 09:33 AM
Labour now not going to implement tax changes in this term if they get in. Good news, but they've revealed their intentions.

777
14-09-2017, 09:35 AM
The damage is done and tax was not the only reason for the change in the polls.

Labour in turmoil again.

Maybe they know the results of the poll due out tonight.

fungus pudding
14-09-2017, 09:44 AM
The damage is done and tax was not the only reason for the change in the polls.

Labour in turmoil again.

Maybe they know the results of the poll due out tonight.

That's my thoughts exactly, because they will know the result, and I doubt they've ever been out of turmoil. This will also be to knock the wind out of Nationals ads, and English's chief debating point.
Certainly tax wasn't the only reason, but must have been a factor.

P.S. Just noticed, they still propose to cancel the tax cuts, so that whacks everyone in the hip pocket.

Joshuatree
14-09-2017, 09:50 AM
Great move:t_up: To counter nationals lying and smearing, well done labour leaving the people to decide next election.

jonu
14-09-2017, 09:50 AM
Grant Robertson now saying tax changes wouldn't be implemented until 2020. Jacinda has previously been saying we can't afford to wait, saying the working group may take a year and then they would implement. The Nats are going to be all over this and expose Jacinda's "Captain's Calls" for what they are. Making it up as they go along.

winner69
14-09-2017, 09:51 AM
Labour now not going to implement tax changes in this term if they get in. Good news, but they've revealed their intentions.

How they going to pay for everything now?

I be gutted if they do away with the winter allowance for oldies

winner69
14-09-2017, 09:52 AM
Grant Robertson now saying tax changes wouldn't be implemented until 2020. Jacinda has previously been saying we can't afford to wait, saying the working group may take a year and then they would implement. The Nats are going to be all over this and expose Jacinda's "Captain's Calls" for what they are. Making it up as they go along.

'I' instead of 'we' always dangerous way to go

fungus pudding
14-09-2017, 09:53 AM
How they going to pay for everything now?

I be gutted if they do away with the winter allowance for oldies

They say they will stilll cancel the planned tax cuts.

Joshuatree
14-09-2017, 10:01 AM
Its all fully costed and paid for with existing revenue. It never did and does not rely on the outcomes of the
tax working group.

Joshuatree
14-09-2017, 10:07 AM
Grant Robertson now saying tax changes wouldn't be implemented until 2020. Jacinda has previously been saying we can't afford to wait, saying the working group may take a year and then they would implement. The Nats are going to be all over this and expose Jacinda's "Captain's Calls" for what they are. Making it up as they go along.

Thank national for this. Their desperate smearing spin and lies and fear mongering about taxation. With national honesty is such a lonely word. The people will decide next election.It means things will take longer to fix and that will be an extension of nationals clanking dragging of chains which will be their legacy.

fungus pudding
14-09-2017, 10:07 AM
Labour's new new slogan

Let's not do this.

winner69
14-09-2017, 10:09 AM
Its all fully costed and paid for with existing revenue. It never did and does not rely on the outcomes of the
tax working group.

I suppose you believe that

Like 2008 they had a 'balanced' budget but they left office with huge forecast deficits

Joshuatree
14-09-2017, 10:09 AM
Nationals new slogan
WE DONT CARE LET THEM HOVEL

Joshuatree
14-09-2017, 10:10 AM
2008 Umm GFC anyone

fungus pudding
14-09-2017, 10:13 AM
Nationals new slogan
WE DONT CARE LET THEM HOVEL

How do you hovel? That's the second word from you today I can't understand and it's not even midday.

winner69
14-09-2017, 10:14 AM
2008 Umm GFC anyone

The projected / forecast deficits were known before GfC became a reality ...if you were literally meaning the GFC was the cause of such deficits.

Investor
14-09-2017, 10:15 AM
How do you hovel? That's the second word from you today I can't understand and it's not even midday.

Joshuatree can't even spell words such as don't and i'm correctly. He is fortunate to have anyone that is willing to responding to his posts.

jonu
14-09-2017, 10:15 AM
Thank national for this. Their desperate smearing spin and lies and fear mongering about taxation. With national honesty is such a lonely word. The people will decide next election.It means things will take longer to fix and that will be an extension of nationals clanking dragging of chains which will be their legacy.

Thank the Nats for exposing the lack of detail/agreement/understanding within the Labour leadership. This is a massive backdown from Labour. What happened to the strength of their convictions?

It's more of a "OH S***. we might lose this, let's change the message. Bugger Jacinda's call, let's go with the spin doctor's call. But wait...does it stack up with what we promised before? Doesn't matter...there's an election to lose."

winner69
14-09-2017, 10:17 AM
How do you hovel? That's the second word from you today I can't understand and it's not even midday.


It's where we are all going to end up under Jacinda

Joshuatree
14-09-2017, 10:17 AM
Why would you when you're moat measuring all day. Stop work and open your dictionary.

Joshuatree
14-09-2017, 10:18 AM
It's where we are all going to end up under Jacinda

No ,no ,no w69 nothing to do with intimacy;)

fungus pudding
14-09-2017, 10:20 AM
Why would you when you're moat measuring all day. Stop work and open your dictionary.

I cannot find hovel as a verb, and I can't find fartherest as anything.

winner69
14-09-2017, 10:21 AM
Hovel - rat hole

Joshuatree
14-09-2017, 10:32 AM
Joshuatree can't even spell words such as don't and i'm correctly. He is fortunate to have anyone that is willing to responding to his posts.

what was dat innvespa.Vee rr awl fourtuna it to lift here i fink ,yess indeedy;; we'll nknott in a hovel we r ennywayy.

Joshuatree
14-09-2017, 10:35 AM
Jeepers this sure is swinging rollercoaster of an election folks. I need a triple shot flat white.Laters

winner69
14-09-2017, 10:37 AM
Is govel a word?

elZorro
14-09-2017, 10:42 AM
I suppose you believe that

Like 2008 they had a 'balanced' budget but they left office with huge forecast deficits

I think if you look at it carefully, Treasury forecast several years of budget deficits, in a report from about 2008. They are notoriously poor at estimating figures like that, even 2-3 years out. So these were a best guess. National grabbed that report and used it in the 2008 elections and in every opportunity since. They used it to show that they must be better than Labour at running the country. We'll never know just how much better a Labour Govt would have been at handling the GFC or the earthquakes. I thought you had more sense of the historical nature of that forecast, W69.

artemis
14-09-2017, 10:43 AM
The 2021 announcement only relates to the outcome of the working group. Mr Robertson said the announced taxes and tax cuts would remain, along with removing negative gearing (on what?) and extending the brightline test to 5 years. He also said in the interview that Labour would pick and choose what working group recommendations they would adopt.

Bjauck
14-09-2017, 11:06 AM
It's an interesting illustration but I'd make the observation about the size and specification of housing. Most homes in the early 1960s were modest 3 bedroom wooden homes (or brick and tile or even fibrolite cladding) with one bathroom, one WC, a laminate or wood finished kitchen with one sink and a basic Atlas electric range.

Hot water - electric with pressure reducer.

They were typically heated with an open fireplace, wooden joinery and particle board flooring. Lighting was often confined to single incandescent bulb per room.

That's quite different from what we expect from housing today. Not for first home buyers today. (In Auckland, if not elsewhere) People not on the property ladder already are told by our leaders to expect to buy a small apartment in a block as the affordable option (even that option is pretty well unaffordable now for those on median incomes). A 1960s style house that previous generations bought as a first home in the 1960s would be a palace in comparison!

Joshuatree
14-09-2017, 11:33 AM
That will help stop the official slave labour status that NZ has become. Robots fixing a problem that national have avoided(yet another).
Robots will pay tax as well.If they get an IRD number maybe they could claim person status as well:confused::D

Migrant worker describes 'modern day slavery' scam (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/339373/migrant-worker-describes-modern-day-slavery-scam)

jonu
14-09-2017, 11:33 AM
Jeepers this sure is swinging rollercoaster of an election folks. I need a triple shot flat white.Laters

Said like a true 21st century Labourite!:p What those Blackball miners must make of today's Labour party Lord only knows.

Jacinda has just been interviewed on the West Coast. Turns out the backdown on implementation timing is another Captain's Call! So before when the housing crisis made it too urgent to delay, it is now not so urgent, with legislation expected 2020 and not enacting until 2021. What did George Gregan say? "4 more years boys, 4 more years"

What happened to the heart wringing pleas to move with urgency? Political expediency is what happened. In other words, gaining power is more important than the strength of your convictions. But remember, Jacinda wants to do politics differently.

winner69
14-09-2017, 11:33 AM
I think if you look at it carefully, Treasury forecast several years of budget deficits, in a report from about 2008. They are notoriously poor at estimating figures like that, even 2-3 years out. So these were a best guess. National grabbed that report and used it in the 2008 elections and in every opportunity since. They used it to show that they must be better than Labour at running the country. We'll never know just how much better a Labour Govt would have been at handling the GFC or the earthquakes. I thought you had more sense of the historical nature of that forecast, W69.

...but Labour were behind in the polls at the time and the projected budget deficits (manageable?) implied they could afford the promises being made.

Mind you there was some structural 'flaws' in some of Treasury's assumptions at the time.

Joshuatree
14-09-2017, 11:48 AM
Said like a true 21st century Labourite!:p What those Blackball miners must make of today's Labour party Lord only knows.

Jacinda has just been interviewed on the West Coast. Turns out the backdown on implementation timing is another Captain's Call! So before when the housing crisis made it too urgent to delay, it is now not so urgent, with legislation expected 2020 and not enacting until 2021. What did George Gregan say? "4 more years boys, 4 more years"

What happened to the heart wringing pleas to move with urgency? Political expediency is what happened. In other words, gaining power is more important than the strength of your convictions. But remember, Jacinda wants to do politics differently.

Yep and all because of nationals fear mongering and lying. The history books will be accurate about this.

jonu
14-09-2017, 11:52 AM
So JT, you admit Jacinda has thrown her values out with the bath water just to get to the treasury benches?

dobby41
14-09-2017, 11:57 AM
So JT, you admit Jacinda has thrown her values out with the bath water just to get to the treasury benches?

Does it matter?
National never had any values so I suppose they are lucky in that respect.
They have shown this time that they will spend and lie at will to retain power.

jonu
14-09-2017, 12:00 PM
Does it matter?
National never had any values so I suppose they are lucky in that respect.
They have shown this time that they will spend and lie at will to retain power.

C'mon dobbs, of course it matters. Jacinda has just lost her "I'm different from the rest of them" cred. She'll obviously say whatever she thinks the public wants to hear once she gets a sniff of the Treasury. Must be an awesome smell to sell your soul off so easily.

winner69
14-09-2017, 02:27 PM
EZ - I'm not this guy Keith ....but I have the odd coffee with him and he is a good guy

Grant Robertson: a Sad Incompetent who is Losing NZ Labour the Election

https://kjohnsonnz.blogspot.co.nz/2017/09/grant-robertson-sad-incompetent-who-is.html


Extract -
Poor Jacinda Ardern – but then again that has been one of the main concerns held by relatively objective commentators about a future NZ Labour-led Government – the lack of talent in the Front Benches. For God’s Sake, let’s hope that NZ Labour do well and add some bright MPs even if they don’t win – the country is desperate for some Gritty Opposition Grunt.

westerly
14-09-2017, 03:53 PM
EZ - I'm not this guy Keith ....but I have the odd coffee with him and he is a good guy

Grant Robertson: a Sad Incompetent who is Losing NZ Labour the Election

https://kjohnsonnz.blogspot.co.nz/2017/09/grant-robertson-sad-incompetent-who-is.html


Extract -
Poor Jacinda Ardern – but then again that has been one of the main concerns held by relatively objective commentators about a future NZ Labour-led Government – the lack of talent in the Front Benches. For God’s Sake, let’s hope that NZ Labour do well and add some bright MPs even if they don’t win – the country is desperate for some Gritty Opposition Grunt.

Wouln't consider Johnson objective or credible. Polled near the bottom in the Wellington mayoralty election. Just another opinionated import from somewhere else.

westerly

Joshuatree
14-09-2017, 05:20 PM
So JT, you admit Jacinda has thrown her values out with the bath water just to get to the treasury benches?

What are you on Jonu??. Labour have had great steaming piles of LYING FILTH , horse manure thrown at them continuously. I ask you again do you support such behaviour, is deceit and inaccuracy ok with you; do you do it??

Joshuatree
14-09-2017, 05:25 PM
C'mon dobbs, of course it matters. Jacinda has just lost her "I'm different from the rest of them" cred. She'll obviously say whatever she thinks the public wants to hear once she gets a sniff of the Treasury. Must be an awesome smell to sell your soul off so easily.

Sounds like you are intimate with such behaviour. Thank heavens one party are leading by example and having a positive, decent campaign.National ,well i wouldn't advise anyone to look to them as a role model.But i would say if you want to do a study of corruption in progress national would be a GREAT study indeed.

elZorro
14-09-2017, 05:29 PM
And the Colmar Poll was more of the same, that's what happens when it's a bit more real than a Reid Research poll.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/new-1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-labour-maintains-four-point-lead-over-national-could-govern-greens

So at this stage, with 14% undecided, those who want to pick winners can be pretty safe in voting Labour or Greens.

Joshuatree
14-09-2017, 05:46 PM
Yes Colmar Brunton a genuine accurate poll imo.
Nobody likes or trusts muck rakers agendas.

jonu
14-09-2017, 05:56 PM
And the Colmar Poll was more of the same, that's what happens when it's a bit more real than a Reid Research poll.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/new-1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-labour-maintains-four-point-lead-over-national-could-govern-greens

So at this stage, with 14% undecided, those who want to pick winners can be pretty safe in voting Labour or Greens.

So will this prompt another Captain's Call reversal El Z?

777
14-09-2017, 06:09 PM
Yes Colmar Brunton a genuine accurate poll imo.
Nobody likes or trusts muck rakers agendas.

But in reality you don't know.

Jay
14-09-2017, 07:45 PM
Looks to me that it my come down to how the greens and NZ1st go - didn't believe that TV3 poll the other day.
With the way polls overseas have "predicted" outcomes recently, who knows
Would be a turn up if either Labour or National could govern on their own - not very likely though

fungus pudding
14-09-2017, 08:02 PM
An excellent panel discussion on tv tonight. Jack Tame ran it well. Hands down winner for pure logic- David Seymore

elZorro
14-09-2017, 08:40 PM
An excellent panel discussion on tv tonight. Jack Tame ran it well. Hands down winner for pure logic- David Seymore

Where is ACT polling? Even TOP is beating them by about four-fold. The synopsis of the Young leaders debate on the web looks a bit basic.

Bjauck
15-09-2017, 06:39 AM
And the Colmar Poll was more of the same, that's what happens when it's a bit more real than a Reid Research poll.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/new-1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-labour-maintains-four-point-lead-over-national-could-govern-greens

So at this stage, with 14% undecided, those who want to pick winners can be pretty safe in voting Labour or Greens. A lot of the polling would have been conducted earlier in the week, perhaps before the effect that would have resulted from Labour's tax policy review and implementation timing reversal.

I am guessing that effect could be double edged. Some would not like a vacillating leader; others would see it as a cynical change to get more votes; yet others would see it as a sensible change to give more time to get any tax reform right.

Each polling organisation have their biases. I prefer to look at the trend from previous polls from the same company.

dobby41
15-09-2017, 07:35 AM
I haven't really understood all the excitment around the polls - only one matters and this is a week away.
I don't make my decision on who to vote for based on what others might think so polls don't influence me.
Many others are just sheep?

minimoke
15-09-2017, 07:48 AM
I haven't really understood all the excitment around the polls - only one matters and this is a week away.
I don't make my decision on who to vote for based on what others might think so polls don't influence me.
May others are just sheep?
All polls matter. People like to back a winner and so many cant think for themselves. So they need the polls to provide them with the guidance. Thats why there are undecided voters today.

fungus pudding
15-09-2017, 09:13 AM
All polls matter. People like to back a winner and so many cant think for themselves. So they need the polls to provide them with the guidance. Thats why there are undecided voters today.

Also believe it or not, a few voters understand how MMP works. Voting for marginal parties without a likely electoral seat may be a wasted vote. In the case of the greens, if they only reached 4.99% that's a hell of a lot of wasted votes. Then again because of the rounding system any vote may be a wasted vote.

minimoke
15-09-2017, 09:29 AM
Also believe it or not, a few voters understand how MMP works. Voting for marginal parties without a likely electoral seat may be a wasted vote. In the case of the greens, if they only reached 4.99% that's a hell of a lot of wasted votes. Then again because of the rounding system any vote may be a wasted vote.I cant believe 4.99% of the voters would support a party that sees nothing wrong with benefit fraud and electoral vote manipulation. And to think they may share government with Labour is scary.

Joshuatree
15-09-2017, 09:33 AM
Thats why the Greens may need tactical voting to get over the line. If ones electorate is a true blue national or a strong labour one for example, consider party vote Green or NZ first if you are so inclined.

blackcap
15-09-2017, 09:34 AM
I cant believe 4.99% of the voters would support a party that sees nothing wrong with benefit fraud and electoral vote manipulation. And to think they may share government with Labour is scary.

Good mate of mine (professional earns 100k+) and his wife will both be voting Green. They care deeply about climate change and all other plastic and effluent type issues. Their kids go to Rudolf Steiner type schools. Rich chardonnay socialists inhabit these places, most probably vote green. I do not go to that school or any things that that school does like fairs etc... it really is a scary place. Why is he a good mate? Well he does come around for the rugby and we have known each other since Uni and get on fine outside of politics. We talk boy talk but only when his Mrs is not around. Point is there are plenty of people out there that can see past the fraud because in their minds the other issues are more important. Not that I agree, just saying how many of our populace think.

Joshuatree
15-09-2017, 09:35 AM
I cant believe 4.99% of the voters would support a party that sees nothing wrong with benefit fraud and electoral vote manipulation. And to think they may share government with Labour is scary.

The problems are still there waiting to be fixed mm. Greens have reset and moved on.

fungus pudding
15-09-2017, 09:41 AM
The problems are still there waiting to be fixed mm. Greens have reset and moved on.


The Greens eventual saviour will be the young Aucklander, Chloe Something? She's an impressive debater and will appeal to the young brainwashed tree-huggers. They'll need a new half-leader and she'd be the pick of them, but the American woman will probably get that position, because the last thing they need at present is an internal war.

Joshuatree
15-09-2017, 09:45 AM
"brainwashed tree huggers" Never heard that term for bark before , its pretty novel:). Chloe something sounds promising, any links?

winner69
15-09-2017, 09:51 AM
"brainwashed tree huggers" Never heard that term for bark before , its pretty novel:). Chloe something sounds promising, any links?

Chloe Swarbrick

Has same values as you ....surprised and disappointed you haven't come across her

But Greens have lost their way - or not expressing it well

Chloe could be the next Jacinda

westerly
15-09-2017, 10:15 AM
Chloe Swarbrick

Has same values as you ....surprised and disappointed you haven't come across her

But Greens have lost their way - or not expressing it well

Chloe could be the next Jacinda

The older more conservative men do not realise how much women have moved into areas once predominently occupied by men, and it continues.
It is no longer possible to have a men only organisation, but women have many groups where men would fear to tred.
The more Jacinda, Paula, or other prominent womn are criticised, the more likely women will vote for them as for a male politician.

westerly

winner69
15-09-2017, 10:30 AM
The older more conservative men do not realise how much women have moved into areas once predominently occupied by men, and it continues.
It is no longer possible to have a men only organisation, but women have many groups where men would fear to tred.
The more Jacinda, Paula, or other prominent womn are criticised, the more likely women will vote for them as for a male politician.

westerly

So true ...........but there re many open minded older conservative men who work with these women

Diversity is great

fungus pudding
15-09-2017, 10:30 AM
The older more conservative men do not realise how much women have moved into areas once predominently occupied by men, and it continues.

westerly

I'm not sure how you arrive at that conclusion. Older men (conservative or otherwise) have seen the change, lived through it, and I'd say they are extremely aware of it.

BlackPeter
15-09-2017, 10:35 AM
The older more conservative men do not realise how much women have moved into areas once predominently occupied by men, and it continues.
It is no longer possible to have a men only organisation, but women have many groups where men would fear to tred.
The more Jacinda, Paula, or other prominent womn are criticised, the more likely women will vote for them as for a male politician.

westerly

Not sure - this theory certainly didn't hold water for Hillary Clinton. I don't think that there is any evidence that women are typically giving other women any preference when voting (I have even seen numbers which would suggest the opposite). And there is certainly no evidence that women are supporting other women if these are under attack (as Hillary was).

As well - if you look at countries where women are calling (or used to call) the shots - I can't remember any stats showing that Jenny Shipley - or Helen Clark - or Angela Merkel - or Theresa May - or Golda Meir - or Margret Thatcher - had any more support from female voters than from male voters. Have you?

westerly
15-09-2017, 11:25 AM
BP given your dislike of Donald -https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/exit-polls/

fungus pudding
15-09-2017, 11:40 AM
BP given your dislike of Donald -https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/exit-polls/

I don't see a sane/insane column?

artemis
15-09-2017, 01:54 PM
Talking of wasted votes. Voted today, and well aware that both candidate and party votes will be wasted. Best candidate voted for but will not win the electorate. Party vote to the minor party that most aligns with my personal values. (Two different parties.)

BlackPeter
15-09-2017, 01:59 PM
BP given your dislike of Donald -https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/exit-polls/

Interesting page - cheers for sharing. And yes, it seems to support your statement. Having said that - it was clearly not enough. Are American men really that much dumber than American women? Anyway - that's probably for another thread ...

elZorro
15-09-2017, 06:05 PM
Jacinda sets the record straight. In case W69 missed it?

http://www.labour.org.nz/labours_solid_plan_for_the_economy?utm_campaign=17 0915_javid&utm_medium=email&utm_source=nzlabour

777
15-09-2017, 06:21 PM
Jacinda sets the record straight. In case W69 missed it?

http://www.labour.org.nz/labours_solid_plan_for_the_economy?utm_campaign=17 0915_javid&utm_medium=email&utm_source=nzlabour

Politicians word is not worth a pinch of the proverbial.

elZorro
15-09-2017, 06:29 PM
Politicians word is not worth a pinch of the proverbial.

Sometimes.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/339438/saudi-sheep-deal-no-mfat-legal-advice-on-lawsuit-risk

Joshuatree
15-09-2017, 06:58 PM
Jacinda sets the record straight. In case W69 missed it?

http://www.labour.org.nz/labours_solid_plan_for_the_economy?utm_campaign=17 0915_javid&utm_medium=email&utm_source=nzlabour

Great stuff. Jacindas beginners mistake ,being a positive campaigner; she didn't realise how the negative mud throwing smear tactics of National would attract some naive believers and this transparent clear message could have come out some weeks back. She is learning incredibly fast though, full credit to her and labour.:))

Joshuatree
15-09-2017, 06:59 PM
Sometimes.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/339438/saudi-sheep-deal-no-mfat-legal-advice-on-lawsuit-risk



Its like "Who cares its only $11.5 million of disposable taxpayers money".

jonu
15-09-2017, 07:22 PM
Jacinda sets the record straight. In case W69 missed it?

http://www.labour.org.nz/labours_solid_plan_for_the_economy?utm_campaign=17 0915_javid&utm_medium=email&utm_source=nzlabour

Oh my EL Z...Jacinda has guaranteed not to reverse the "Captain's Call" reversal. Thanks for clearing that up Jacinda. I'm most interested in who is apologising to Kelvin Davis after telling him to shut up. And since when does "The Captain" give a hospital pass to someone else to cover their own cock-up? Poor old Grant Robertson will have that one stored in his back pocket for when he needs it. Watch your back Jacinda!

Baa_Baa
15-09-2017, 07:29 PM
Great stuff. Jacindas beginners mistake ,being a positive campaigner; she didn't realise how the negative mud throwing smear tactics of National would attract some naive believers and this transparent clear message could have come out some weeks back. She is learning incredibly fast though, full credit to her and labour.:))

So you realise she made a mistake, and it's a big mistake hiding behind a Tax Review post-election, creating uncertainty and doubt going into an election without a mandate, when it's clear that Labour have wasted nine years not coming up with a coherent tax policy.

Notwithstanding how it was exposed, I disagree that National tactics are whatever you call them, they just pointed out the facts that Jacinda/Labour screwed up.

Naivety doesn't win elections. Jacinda and Labour enjoyed a huge spike in popularity but two weeks is a long time in an election campaign, she/Labour appear to have peaked too early and will pay the price of another term in opposition. It's clear and obvious why they so fervently campaign for the early voters! Transparent manipulative tactics. The next week will be hell for them.

Go on, keep ranting about Nationals tactics all you want, it's election time. It's all about 'gain power', once that's done it's three years of 'retain power' into the next election. Simple, and no room for newbies or the naive.

Joshuatree
15-09-2017, 07:33 PM
Grants gay jonu, don't hold it against him. He has more than held his own against lying "big hole" joyce. National have thrown so much mud; trouble is they didn't see the fan; an own goal.:t_up:

Joshuatree
15-09-2017, 07:38 PM
So you realise she made a mistake, and it's a big mistake hiding behind a Tax Review post-election, creating uncertainty and doubt going into an election without a mandate, when it's clear that Labour have wasted nine years not coming up with a coherent tax policy.

Notwithstanding how it was exposed, I disagree that National tactics are whatever you call them, they just pointed out the facts that Jacinda/Labour screwed up.


Naivety doesn't win elections. Jacinda and Labour enjoyed a huge spike in popularity but two weeks is a long time in an election campaign, she/Labour appear to have peaked too early and will pay the price of another term in opposition. It's clear and obvious why they so fervently campaign for the early voters! Transparent manipulative tactics. The next week will be hell for them.

Go on, keep ranting about Nationals tactics all you want, it's election time. It's all about 'gain power', once that's done it's three years of 'retain power' into the next election. Simple, and no room for newbies or the naive.

Rant, rave, hard to tell the difference there baabaa.

Jacinda will be a positive, respectful leader behaving like a prime minister and not a boor. NZ needs her desperately, and she is learning fast .

She will start to heal and fix NZ after 9 years of fiddling under National where pollution, poverty, housing , health system, drug addiction etc is failing, a fact that no-one can deny. What on earth have national been doing for 9 years!!!??
I want you on my team baabaa; you can be the dispatcher. you're perfect, so ruthless.:scared:

This is an incredibly close race atm with the consistent collar brunton poll putting labour there atm . NZ wants change for the better.

Baa_Baa
15-09-2017, 07:44 PM
First time idealist positive leader NZ needs her desperately, and she is learning fast.I want you on my team baabaa; you can be the dispatcher and gold teeth guy; you're perfect, so ruthless.


Grants gay jonu, don't hold it against him. He has more than held his own against lying "big hole" joyce. National have thrown so much mud; trouble is they didn't see the fan; an own goal.:t_up:

I told you Josh, I don't want any of what your drinking, smoking or taking. You've lost the plot buddy. No offence intended just saying it how I see it.

Let's talk after the election, contrition is the ultimate leveller.

BAA

Joshuatree
15-09-2017, 07:55 PM
May the best team win. Win/lose life goes on for better or worse. Enjoy your weekend Baa

minimoke
16-09-2017, 06:42 AM
What on earth have national been doing for 9 years!!!??


Enough to give NZers $1000 of their own money back on 1 april next year. Which takes us one step further away from poverty and one step closer to being in an affordable house.

fungus pudding
16-09-2017, 07:20 AM
Enough to give NZers $1000 of their own money back on 1 april next year. Which takes us one step further away from poverty and one step closer to being in an affordable house.

They're not giving me anything back, but at least the Nats will be taking $1000 less from me; make that $2000 + from me and (Mrs) Instant Pudding, while not forcing price increases on us through raising farming costs, and Allah knows what else. Instant and I are both superannuitants, with a little extra income from here and there.

elZorro
16-09-2017, 07:51 AM
They're not giving me anything back, but at least the Nats will be taking $1000 less from me; make that $2000 + from me and (Mrs) Instant Pudding, while not forcing price increases on us through raising farming costs, and Allah knows what else. Instant and I are both superannuitants.

But that's not your only income, right? Labour will help with power bills, and healthcare will probably be a lot more organised and available. It'll balance out.

I hate to burst your bubble, but Labour has more funds available for this campaign than they ever had. They need it all, because the Crosby-Textor spin has split the Not-National vote, dating from before the 2005 elections.

But if the previous data is valid, and Labour spend this new available cash on good marketing, Labour should achieve at least 42% of the party vote, the same as they achieved in 2005, to narrowly win the election. The cash is only there because swing voters suddenly have renewed hope for a change. That gets reinforced with advertising spend.

winner69
16-09-2017, 07:57 AM
Country must be in a pretty good state if people can give zillions to political parties to spin their stories

fungus pudding
16-09-2017, 08:09 AM
But that's not your only income, right? Labour will help with power bills, and healthcare will probably be a lot more organised and available. It'll balance out.

I hate to burst your bubble, but Labour has more funds available for this campaign than they ever had. They need it all, because the Crosby-Textor spin has split the Not-National vote, dating from before the 2005 elections.

But if the previous data is valid, and Labour spend this new available cash on good marketing, Labour should achieve at least 42% of the party vote, the same as they achieved in 2005, to narrowly win the election. The cash is only there because swing voters suddenly have renewed hope for a change. That gets reinforced with advertising spend.

Yes. I do have extra income and have amended my first post. Comes from years and years of scrimping and saving. Working my fingers to the bone, seizing every opportunity when politicians gave us the breaks, e.g. Rowling's spec tax, Muldoon's claw back and ring fencing, plus the rent freeze. All good stuff if you want to make a quid. Rest assured, you have not burst my bubble.
I'm intrigued with your obsession with this Crosby Textor mob who I presume are a PR firm or ad. agency. Do you not expect a political party to use professional marketing advice? Surely Labour do as well, or do they rely on McCarten only? Whatever it is , they seem to upset you. Relax eZ. The world will keep turning, and NZ with it - although a bit slower should Taxcinda win and saddle us with more of the Scandinavian dream that she and Aunt Helen seem so enamoured with.

elZorro
16-09-2017, 08:10 AM
Country must be in a pretty good state if people can give zillions to political parties to spin their stories

You mean in a good state now? Back in 2005 Helen Clark's Labour raised $2.8mill to spend in the last three months of the campaign. Even then they only just beat National, who spent about $1.9mill. But before 2004, Labour gained higher votes than National with a smaller spend. National's plot hasn't changed. They now spend over $2mill in the three months. Last time Bill went for PM in 2002, National only raised $1.1mill for spending, and they got about 21% of the party vote.

One thing I do know - how we vote as a country doesn't have much to do with critiquing past results or analysing policies. If it did, Labour would have been back in power already.

fungus pudding
16-09-2017, 08:36 AM
You mean in a good state now? Back in 2005 Helen Clark's Labour raised $2.8mill to spend in the last three months of the campaign. Even then they only just beat National, who spent about $1.9mill. But before 2004, Labour gained higher votes than National with a smaller spend. National's plot hasn't changed. They now spend over $2mill in the three months. Last time Bill went for PM in 2002, National only raised $1.1mill for spending, and they got about 21% of the party vote.

One thing I do know - how we vote as a country doesn't have much to do with critiquing past results or analysing policies. If it did, Labour would have been back in power already.

Labour blew every brownie point they accumulated in their last term by paying a ridiculous price, quite unnecessarily for a train outfit, simply because National had sold it.

Joshuatree
16-09-2017, 08:51 AM
fp; please call the labour leader by her real name,Jacinda or Ardern or you prefer. Its a below the bar form of smearing that national has been doing. I hope you can raise the bar here and we can carry on politicking without that sort of thing .It will raise the standard here if we don't lower it like that with cheap name shots. thank you. Bill or English is acceptable to me.

winner69
16-09-2017, 09:03 AM
Not surprising

Hope the young are just not swayed by a big smile and a bit of razzamatazz

fungus pudding
16-09-2017, 09:08 AM
fp; please call the labour leader by her real name,Jacinda or Ardern or you prefer. Its a below the bar form of smearing that national has been doing. I hope you can raise the bar here and we can carry on politicking without that sort of thing .It will raise the standard here if we don't lower it like that with cheap name shots. thank you. Bill or English is acceptable to me.
I'm not driven by what is acceptable to you.

fungus pudding
16-09-2017, 09:10 AM
Not surprising

Hope the young are just not swayed by a big smile and a bit of razzamatazz

No. But they are easily bribed with education carrots.

Baa_Baa
16-09-2017, 09:19 AM
Not surprising

Hope the young are just not swayed by a big smile and a bit of razzamatazz

No worries, they aren't enrolling and won't be voting.

777
16-09-2017, 09:20 AM
fp; please call the labour leader by her real name,Jacinda or Ardern or you prefer. Its a below the bar form of smearing that national has been doing. I hope you can raise the bar here and we can carry on politicking without that sort of thing .It will raise the standard here if we don't lower it like that with cheap name shots. thank you. Bill or English is acceptable to me.

A low standard set by you JT and has got progressively lower with each of your posts. Any respect anyone had for you I am sure has gone so your instructions to FP on how to behave will no doubt fall on deaf ears to everyone except your gang of four.

elZorro
16-09-2017, 09:40 AM
A low standard set by you JT and has got progressively lower with each of your posts. Any respect anyone had for you I am sure has gone so your instructions to FP on how to behave will no doubt fall on deaf ears to everyone except your gang of four.

Can I join the gang?

Discl: Closet Labour voter.

777
16-09-2017, 09:46 AM
Can I join the gang?

Discl: Closet Labour voter.

Five then since you have requested to.

jonu
16-09-2017, 09:56 AM
Can I join the gang?

Discl: Closet Labour voter.

I think you came out of the closet some time ago EL Z.

I (to a point) admire the Labour stalwarts on here. It's a brave place to fly your colours in what is always going to be a right leaning community of investors. I do get worried by the blind fervour displayed for Jacinda. There has been a lot of glossing over of her monumental cock-up on here.

I was suspicious of her prior to the "Captain's Call" reversal of the "Captain's Call...It's too important for us to wait" on tax changes. Now I think she has been completely exposed to be as cynical as the rest of them. (That is, if it really was her call) The big prize glittered just out of her reach and she sold her soul to grasp it. She can't claim to be morally superior to anyone now. What was too important to wait for, suddenly became expedient.

winner69
16-09-2017, 10:26 AM
Like the sands through the hourglass - it has taken just four short weeks for Jacinda Ardern's "campaign of our lives" to become more akin to the The Days of Our Lives.

Labour's Wonder Woman has found herself cast in a long-running soap opera - but not as a super hero.


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11922858

elZorro
16-09-2017, 10:40 AM
I think you came out of the closet some time ago EL Z.

I (to a point) admire the Labour stalwarts on here. It's a brave place to fly your colours in what is always going to be a right leaning community of investors. I do get worried by the blind fervour displayed for Jacinda. There has been a lot of glossing over of her monumental cock-up on here.

I was suspicious of her prior to the "Captain's Call" reversal of the "Captain's Call...It's too important for us to wait" on tax changes. Now I think she has been completely exposed to be as cynical as the rest of them. (That is, if it really was her call) The big prize glittered just out of her reach and she sold her soul to grasp it. She can't claim to be morally superior to anyone now. What was too important to wait for, suddenly became expedient.

There was always going to be a big delay on tax changes, now it's officially three years. It doesn't matter too much, a Labour govt will be looking harder at big corporates, and their other initiatives will improve productivity, employment levels, and the net tax returns.

Here's a compilation of mean tweets read out by the MPs or people concerned. Contains swearing beeped out.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/16-09-2017/watch-nz-politicians-read-mean-tweets/

fungus pudding
16-09-2017, 11:53 AM
National deserve to be punished for their stupid grants for first home buyers policy; so now that Act looks very likely to have a second MP, that's my vote sorted ........................................probably.

BlackPeter
16-09-2017, 11:58 AM
Not surprising

Hope the young are just not swayed by a big smile and a bit of razzamatazz

These stats are clear proof that wisdom grows with age ;)

fungus pudding
16-09-2017, 12:09 PM
These stats are clear proof that wisdom grows with age ;)

I doubt that I could get any wiser. :p

fungus pudding
16-09-2017, 12:26 PM
Like the sands through the hourglass - it has taken just four short weeks for Jacinda Ardern's "campaign of our lives" to become more akin to the The Days of Our Lives.

Labour's Wonder Woman has found herself cast in a long-running soap opera - but not as a super hero.


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11922858

Even if she doesn't win you could hardly call her a loser. She will have saved them from certain death, and she could remain as leader right up to a month before the next election - when they'll boot her out.

minimoke
16-09-2017, 04:04 PM
.... It doesn't matter too much, a Labour govt will be looking harder at big corporates, and their other initiatives will improve productivity, employment levels, and the net tax returns.

..
Its up to individual companies to develop their own initiatives to increase productivity - to succeed they need a Government that reduces barriers. Particularly around tax and labour relations.

minimoke
16-09-2017, 04:08 PM
National deserve to be punished for their stupid grants for first home buyers policy; so now that Act looks very likely to have a second MP, that's my vote sorted ........................................probably.T hat is one offence. Another is EQC, Another is continuation of futile ETS. Another is keeping a large swathe of NZ as beneficiaries through WFF. And also interfering in employment agreements and creating a national award for carers - with no expectation of an improvement in productivity. And the nail in the coffin is removing civil rights through the idea of search for no cause.

fungus pudding
16-09-2017, 04:12 PM
That is one offence. Another is EQC, Another is continuation of futile ETS. Another is keeping a large swathe of NZ as beneficiaries through WFF. And also interfering in employment agreements and creating a national award for carers - with no expectation of an improvement in productivity. And the nail in the coffin is removing civil rights through the idea of search for no cause.

Yeah, but at least they are nowhere near as dopey as Labour. WFF should gto and move to a flat tax system kicking in over a certain level of income. Current system is too complicated.