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craic
03-05-2013, 08:40 AM
These are low-risk options, and don't show the sort of nous needed by investors to get the country very far ahead.

Who came up with the idea that investors should use their "nous" to get the country far ahead? Investors invest for profit - to get themselves or their company or family ahead. If they were stupid enough to Be like Queen Victoria and " think of England" (when she was having sex) when they were investing, then they would probably just have to wait for the next Labour led government to come along and stuff it up for them. The same applies to the local IT industry within govt. departments etc., The ones who can make it have done so and away working for real money elsewhere. My son, a keen electronics hobbyist was told that he couldn't do electronics at Napier Boys High school because at the time it was restricted. He left from Form IV and is now at the top of his field in London. The Labour/Green concept of a society where those who have should labour for those who have not to the point where everyone' has not' doesnt work - the Russians tried it for almost a century - go ther and have a look at the reality.

elZorro
03-05-2013, 06:01 PM
Who came up with the idea that investors should use their "nous" to get the country far ahead? Investors invest for profit - to get themselves or their company or family ahead. If they were stupid enough to Be like Queen Victoria and " think of England" (when she was having sex) when they were investing, then they would probably just have to wait for the next Labour led government to come along and stuff it up for them. The same applies to the local IT industry within govt. departments etc. The ones who can make it have done so and away working for real money elsewhere. My son, a keen electronics hobbyist was told that he couldn't do electronics at Napier Boys High school because at the time it was restricted. He left from Form IV and is now at the top of his field in London. The Labour/Green concept of a society where those who have should labour for those who have not to the point where everyone 'has not' doesn't work - the Russians tried it for almost a century - go there and have a look at the reality.

Craic, the Labour Party and the Greens aren't communists or fervent socialists, or they'd not get many votes. My take on this is that their policies, which have a stronger leaning towards looking after society in general (and that is how governments are judged), will bring the country forward in a way that National won't. Somehow government has to convince business owners to take on enterprise directions that lead to more staff being employed. This gentle persuasion won't be helped by Government shedding its own staff, their SOES shedding staff, their SOES being tidied up for partial sale, and other tuning and removal of incentives for SMEs.

And now one of their own drunk MPs is calling a hospitality worker a dickhead, and threatening to get him sacked. There's a hidden meaning there somewhere.

westerly
03-05-2013, 06:46 PM
" The Labour/Green concept of a society where those who have should labour for those who have not to the point where everyone' has not' doesnt work - the Russians tried it for almost a century - go ther and have a look at the reality."

The Labour /Green concept of a society is probally more to create a level playing field rather than the trickle down of National/Act. As for the comparison
to the Russian experience. They were run by a dictatorship, hardly applicable to any Labour Govt. Muldoon was possibly as near as NZ has come to that and he wasn't in a bulls roar of being close.

Westerly

craic
03-05-2013, 10:30 PM
Helen Clarke had a good crack at the dictator model - far more so than Piggy. As for the level playing field, are you suggesting that all backs should carry bags of lead so they can only run as fast as the slowest forward? It doesn't work that way.

elZorro
04-05-2013, 06:41 AM
Helen Clarke had a good crack at the dictator model - far more so than Piggy. As for the level playing field, are you suggesting that all backs should carry bags of lead so they can only run as fast as the slowest forward? It doesn't work that way.

Helen Clark wasn't a dictator, she did have high standards though. She was nothing like Muldoon, her ideas and vision were much more conventional.

Interesting rugby analogy there Craic. If the NZ public were condensed into a 15-person rugby team under the National party colours, most of that team would be told to wait behind their own goalposts, and one or two players would be on the bench permanently, not even making it to the field. As National is mostly looking after the top 1%, there would be no complete forward player at all, they'd have about 15% of one player to work with.

As quick as the game got started, the National team would be selling off part of the equipment in use, maybe the crossbar first. The team would be told to hunker down and wait out the onslaught from the opposition, and to be thankful for that.

At half-time, the increasingly dubious-looking coach would promise the team that the game will swing their way in the second half, and with a bit of luck the scores will be tied by the end of the match.

In any case it would be a hollow victory, as there would be no-one watching from the stands, the match being too dull for words.

craic
04-05-2013, 08:33 AM
I see that the latest morgan poll doesnt agree with you two labour stalwarts - poor old JK has raced to the top again - and poor old whats-his-name has fallen down exhausted in a corner somewhere after his last attempt to gain public notice. I love NZ politics - one race the hounds chase the hare; the next the hare chases the hounds and no one is allowed to win as that might be unfair.

POSSUM THE CAT
04-05-2013, 09:05 AM
craic only national party voters are surveyed. All the others say F..off, stop wasting my time. Cannot afford a land line or are not home being to busy trying to make a living.

Major von Tempsky
04-05-2013, 10:23 AM
Interesting parallels between Helen Clark and Theresa Gattung. They both qualified in Political Science, well known as the easiest subject to get a degree in, they both inexplicably somehow ended up as the head of a major NZ organisation and they both left their organisation in a much worse state than they found it in....

BIRMANBOY
04-05-2013, 11:50 AM
Probably more so because they either dont understand the question or have trouble forming a coherent response. As is evident from your posts.
craic only national party voters are surveyed. All the others say F..off, stop wasting my time. Cannot afford a land line or are not home being to busy trying to make a living.

POSSUM THE CAT
04-05-2013, 12:07 PM
BIRMANBOY You might like to sleep in your basket getting the occasional pat from John Key but not this Cat. This Cat says to surveyers as you are getting paid for this, send me a cheque or make an instant credit to my bank account (preferable as cheques can be stopped) or else do not waste my time.

craic
04-05-2013, 02:07 PM
The last big survey was the one JK won. Thats why he is running the country - its the only one that really counts. It's nice to be on the winning side and watch the losers search for excuses.

Major von Tempsky
04-05-2013, 04:03 PM
Yeah, as some sports supporter famously said when the losing side was coming out with every whinge they could think of that they shouldn't have lost and that they didn't really lose - "LOOK AT THE SCOREBOARD! LOOK AT THE SCOREBOARD!'

(I think it was on SKY Sports after the Highlanders or Otago had won at the House of Pain against some North Island team and the sports commentator was remarking how lucky they were, how the ref was on their side, how many injuries they had, how they wouldn't do so well next time....). The other appropriate quote being of course "WE'LL TAKE THE WIN!"

neopoleII
04-05-2013, 06:02 PM
besides reading this forum i also read the politics forum on TM. and all i can say is alot of Labour supporters havent got a clue. their aim in life seems to be to protect their "tax free" status via endless forms of welfare. ....... nothing wrong with voting from the pocket...... except the cash is coming from the dwindling pockets of the so called rich.
example.... whats up with 90,000 women on the DPB in a land of 4 million people? work it out...... ok i'll do it for you.........
4 mill divided by 2.... male female. 2 mill female. 3/4 mill over 40 (aging population) and 1/2 mill under 18. so our breeding age females about 3/4 of a million with a large percentage on the DPB...... and most of the rest getting WFF. does this mean we have a very violent country where mothers with children have to abandon a family unit because of violent fathers or because the welfare system is far too generous....... or because the state is encouraging a higher birth rate to support population growth.
if its population growth..... why is it that that the poorest and uneducated amongst us are the ones doing the population growth with little potential for their offspring besides earning a welfare check

this is what is happening overseas.... and now here..... and NZ is always a decade behind the rest of the world.
welfare was meant to be a back stop to protect our citizens......and i am all for that.
but welfare seems to be a lifestyle now for almost 1/2 the NZ population and that cash to support that lifestyle is destroying the country.
and those welfare children are now becoming major statistics in our crime rates.

there is a problem...... and punishing business oriented folks is not the way forward....... eg..... labour and the greens.
this is why im consolidating all my financial affairs before we become a banana republic.... ty greenlabs

slimwin
04-05-2013, 07:36 PM
So Belg, you bracket everybody by their views and who they vote for?

craic
05-05-2013, 08:27 AM
Are you not the same belgarion who was red-carded some time ago for abusive behaviour?

zigzag
05-05-2013, 09:00 AM
Not at all, Slimwin. But when supposedly mature people start behaving like children - i.e. reducing complex issues to schoolyard shouting down - "we" won, "you" lost - I hang my head in my hands and wonder why we don't - as Socrates suggested - have to pass an exam before handing out the right to vote to such idiots. Anyone who watched "Idiocracy" recently on TV would recognise this behaviour. (Actually - those saying "we" won, "you" lost above probably won't.)

My post is about this overwhelming sense of dispair.

" We won. You lost. Eat that." Michael Cullen - ex Labour Party Minister having a schoolyard moment.

JBmurc
05-05-2013, 09:15 AM
the Greens policy on job growth... build windmills LOL ....new tech bah bah .....fact is once in power the job losses would set records on Fart Tax,anti fishermen,anti farming,anti mining,anti oil&gas exploration =higher auto reg/fuel prices,massive debt increases on,,, trains,windmills,observers....

What we’re going to do about it
The Green Party has a plan to create 100,000 new green jobs — a plan that will add resilience to our economy and protect our natural environment, without going further into debt.
We’ll create 100,000 new jobs through direct government investment, changing the way our state-owned energy companies work, and shifting the drivers for green jobs in the private sector.
How we’re going to do it
Our plan is detailed and fully-costed. It includes plans for direct government investment, building sustainable infrastructure, supporting the greening of our small and medium enterprises (SMEs), driving innovation, introducing smarter regulation, getting the prices of resources and pollution right, protecting our brand, reforming capital markets, making our workplaces fairer, and measuring progress differently.
Here are three of the highlights:
→ Direct investment We will ramp-up the Heat Smart home insulation programme ensuring it is rolled out to a further 200,000 homes over the next three years, costing $350 million and employing 4,000 people directly — 10,400 if you include indirect and upstream employment effects.
→ Keep it Kiwi We will retain ownership of our state-owned enterprises while creating the right incentives for them to partner with clean tech entrepreneurs in the private sector and develop renewable energy solutions that we can patent and export abroad. With the right incentives in place, if we can capture just 1% of the global market for renewable energy solutions, we’ll create a $6 to $8 billion export industry employing 47,000–65,000 people in new green jobs.
→ Support for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Through a mix of government procurement policies, tax incentives, start- up funding, and a $1 billion boost to R&D funding, we’ll support SMEs to step up and drive new job creation in the cleantech sector.
To view the full plan, visit greens.org.nz/greenjobs

fungus pudding
05-05-2013, 09:48 AM
the Greens policy on job growth... build windmills LOL ....new tech bah bah .....fact is once in power the job losses would set records on Fart Tax,anti fishermen,anti farming,higher auto reg/fuel prices,massive debt increases on,,, trains,windmills,observers....

What we’re going to do about it
The Green Party has a plan to create 100,000 new green jobs — a plan that will add resilience to our economy and protect our natural environment, without going further into debt.
We’ll create 100,000 new jobs through direct government investment, changing the way our state-owned energy companies work, and shifting the drivers for green jobs in the private sector.
How we’re going to do it
Our plan is detailed and fully-costed. It includes plans for direct government investment, building sustainable infrastructure, supporting the greening of our small and medium enterprises (SMEs), driving innovation, introducing smarter regulation, getting the prices of resources and pollution right, protecting our brand, reforming capital markets, making our workplaces fairer, and measuring progress differently.
Here are three of the highlights:
→ Direct investment We will ramp-up the Heat Smart home insulation programme ensuring it is rolled out to a further 200,000 homes over the next three years, costing $350 million and employing 4,000 people directly — 10,400 if you include indirect and upstream employment effects.
→ Keep it Kiwi We will retain ownership of our state-owned enterprises while creating the right incentives for them to partner with clean tech entrepreneurs in the private sector and develop renewable energy solutions that we can patent and export abroad. With the right incentives in place, if we can capture just 1% of the global market for renewable energy solutions, we’ll create a $6 to $8 billion export industry employing 47,000–65,000 people in new green jobs.
→ Support for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Through a mix of government procurement policies, tax incentives, start- up funding, and a $1 billion boost to R&D funding, we’ll support SMEs to step up and drive new job creation in the cleantech sector.
To view the full plan, visit greens.org.nz/greenjobs


You think that's bad! Imagine if they get into govt. with Cunliffe as Leader of Labour.

JBmurc
05-05-2013, 10:08 AM
You think that's bad! Imagine if they get into govt. with Cunliffe as Leader of Labour.

That'll be pure nightmare ...

fungus pudding
05-05-2013, 10:21 AM
That'll be pure nightmare ...

I think National will be back anyway so no immediate threat. They will need a coalition partner which probably means a new candidate for ACT in Epsom. (Hide back?) or offering NZ 1st; Promising Winnie a knighthood would do it.

JBmurc
05-05-2013, 10:59 AM
I think National will be back anyway so no immediate threat. They will need a coalition partner which probably means a new candidate for ACT in Epsom. (Hide back?) or offering NZ 1st; Promising Winnie a knighthood would do it.

Conservative Party of New Zealand ? seem to be growing

elZorro
05-05-2013, 11:07 AM
I think National will be back anyway so no immediate threat. They will need a coalition partner which probably means a new candidate for ACT in Epsom. (Hide back?) or offering NZ 1st; Promising Winnie a knighthood would do it.

I'm wondering if the South Island of NZ is a bastion for conservative views and National voters - you guys are terrified of a Labour/Green govt from 2014 onwards.

JB, here is the link to the green party site, it doesn't terrify me. Maybe I should vote Green.

http://www.greens.org.nz/greenjobs

In the US, the central states are full of right-wing conservatives and liberals, and the East Coast in particular has more left-wing voters. These are the ones helping Obama into office. Although I'm sure it's far more complex than that.

The Greens have been doing their research. The price of solar panels has dropped at least 10-fold in US$ over the last ten years. Many of the rolling Otago hills would earn far more income and return if they were simply filled up with PV panels, rather than trying to farm sheep on them. We should all generate our own power on our rooftops, that's now a payable proposition in many cases. The question is, what would we do with all the spare power, now our manufacturing businesses have been scuttled?

We don't have to accept the mantra that manufacturing in NZ is doomed, therefore all the new jobs will be in the service industries and in tourism. And even the big oil/gas industries might end up like the Huntly Power Station did: a lot of jobs for a short while, now just 100 staff needed to run it, almost no capital flow back to the area.

Could we use our clean-green image to export clever green tech around the world? You bet, that would be a win/win. We'd just have to steer clear of the solar panels themselves, look at the gear around the outside of it, for example.

More about tax evasion today:
(http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/8633328/Hotchin-denies-links-to-BVI-companies)
Mark Hotchin of Hanover Finance denies link to BVI companies. But his personal accountant has been overseeing the two companies,

Australasian Forestry Investments & Forestry Management.

There's not much on the web about these companies, because they don't appear to be investing in other listed companies directly. The data will be well hidden. Hence Mark Hotchin can disavow all knowledge of any links. That was the whole idea of the BVI companies in the first place.

The personal accountant, Dwayne McGorman, was a director in numerous struck-off companies, or has been removed from office in them. He's still the accountant for the James Wallace Arts Trust, based in Auckland, according to the web.

Shares in Australasian Forestry Investments are apparently held by Managecorp. This is a strong clue, the firm Portcullis Trustnet (http://www.portcullis-trustnet.com/en/shelf_lists/) (South Pacific origins around the Winebox Enquiry) controls that. See similar story regarding Managecorp. (http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/1477321/the-uncharitable-use-of-trust-to-deceive/?cs=7)

Shares in Forestry Management were held by Bearer 1. Bearer shares explained, BVI style (http://www.bviincorporation.com/BVI.IBC.Characteristics/Bearer.Shares/). In the BVI, no tax is due on investment income or dividends.

craic
05-05-2013, 12:37 PM
ElZ 'You guys are terrified of a Labour/Green government from 2014 onwards"

Not so. In a world where it just takes a button push or two to shift assets elsewhere, LabourGreen is just a vary temporary problem - just like a bad winter in farming - It ends and people just get on with the Spring. The greatest danger is that the weirdest Green policies will be accepted by a Labour party desperate to gain the treasury benches. We need a benign dictator to stop all the nonsense and get back to reality but there is no sign of a leader of that calibre anywhere in NZ politics.

fungus pudding
05-05-2013, 12:48 PM
Conservative Party of New Zealand ? seem to be growing

No thank-you.

JBmurc
05-05-2013, 01:16 PM
ElZ 'You guys are terrified of a Labour/Green government from 2014 onwards"

Not so. In a world where it just takes a button push or two to shift assets elsewhere, LabourGreen is just a vary temporary problem - just like a bad winter in farming - It ends and people just get on with the Spring. The greatest danger is that the weirdest Green policies will be accepted by a Labour party desperate to gain the treasury benches. We need a benign dictator to stop all the nonsense and get back to reality but there is no sign of a leader of that calibre anywhere in NZ politics.

No thats right you have Labour / Greens on the left to Far left ....National in the centre and very little too the right these days

"I'm wondering if the South Island of NZ is a bastion for conservative views and National voters - you guys are terrified of a Labour/Green govt from 2014 onwards."

maybe as more of the SI voters work(or supported by) in the export sectors more brought up on farms / fishing etc

majority of people I know that voted National run there own businesses & believe in making their own futures ,, ...many of the labour voters I know blame other for their problems and believe in more bigger governments/benefits

elZorro
05-05-2013, 02:04 PM
JB, I'm self employed too, but have a few other families and individuals dependent (at least for now) on the ability of our joint work, to earn us all a living. I look at the primary sector and I don't see too much in the way of long-term profits there. Not for most of the participants anyway. Some, of course, are doing very well.

I believe in making my own future too, and in paying my way. Our business has bucked the national trend in that our manufacturing output is trending upwards, exports and profits are generally increasing. Are we a special case? Far from it. I can see businesses far smarter than ours doing a lot better too.

But we have all needed to specialise and concentrate on smart outputs, generally lighter equipment or software. I prefer to see some IP-protected manufacturing included, that's harder to copy overseas. And manufacturing soaks up staff, makes all of us better off.

So from where I'm standing, I have to vote for a party that is right behind SMEs and manufacturing. That's not the National Party. Under National, the number of SMEs has dropped, and manufacturing job losses have been excessive. National's attention is elsewhere, on the larger firms and SOEs, the govt research firms. These are slow and cumbersome places to expect improvements from. It has been tried before, and never works. Larger firms automate to drop staff, SOEs get sold off and/or lose a lot of money, and govt research firms try hard, but don't commercialise much output.

Smaller firms have to immediately expand to complete R&D or to output more product/services. That's why they are so useful in the wider economy, and deserve a bit of attention.

iceman
06-05-2013, 06:16 AM
the Greens policy on job growth... build windmills LOL ....new tech bah bah .....fact is once in power the job losses would set records on Fart Tax,anti fishermen,anti farming,anti mining,anti oil&gas exploration =higher auto reg/fuel prices,massive debt increases on,,, trains,windmills,observers....

What we’re going to do about it
The Green Party has a plan to create 100,000 new green jobs — a plan that will add resilience to our economy and protect our natural environment, without going further into debt.
We’ll create 100,000 new jobs through direct government investment, changing the way our state-owned energy companies work, and shifting the drivers for green jobs in the private sector.
How we’re going to do it
Our plan is detailed and fully-costed. It includes plans for direct government investment, building sustainable infrastructure, supporting the greening of our small and medium enterprises (SMEs), driving innovation, introducing smarter regulation, getting the prices of resources and pollution right, protecting our brand, reforming capital markets, making our workplaces fairer, and measuring progress differently.
Here are three of the highlights:
→ Direct investment We will ramp-up the Heat Smart home insulation programme ensuring it is rolled out to a further 200,000 homes over the next three years, costing $350 million and employing 4,000 people directly — 10,400 if you include indirect and upstream employment effects.
→ Keep it Kiwi We will retain ownership of our state-owned enterprises while creating the right incentives for them to partner with clean tech entrepreneurs in the private sector and develop renewable energy solutions that we can patent and export abroad. With the right incentives in place, if we can capture just 1% of the global market for renewable energy solutions, we’ll create a $6 to $8 billion export industry employing 47,000–65,000 people in new green jobs.
→ Support for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Through a mix of government procurement policies, tax incentives, start- up funding, and a $1 billion boost to R&D funding, we’ll support SMEs to step up and drive new job creation in the cleantech sector.
To view the full plan, visit greens.org.nz/greenjobs

Exactly JBmurc. Greens co-leader Turei on Marae Investigates (from memory) yesterday sang a similarly out of tune song. Just stated they are going to create so and so many new jobs but all their other policies are hugely anti job creation.
Just like the power policy that they claim will lower prices but when you look at some of their other policies like hugely increase emission trading charges, it soon become clear that power prices will rise and rise very significantly.
It is hard to take them seriously and that's why I think they will always be limited to about the loonie part of voters and never go over 15%. But that's exactly what Labour is relying on as they realise they are so awful themselves that they will never get back into Government without a big support and large ministerial representation from the Greens.
A scary prospect indeed !

CJ
06-05-2013, 07:59 AM
It is hard to take them seriously Why not. Shes not a member for the McGillicuddy Serious Party any more and no doubt she has stopped smoking the green stuff since she left the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.

Not exactly the perfect pedigree for a party leader. At least she wasn't a member of the Socialist Workers' Party ;)

fungus pudding
06-05-2013, 08:17 AM
Why not. Shes not a member for the McGillicuddy Serious Party any more and no doubt she has stopped smoking the green stuff since she left the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.

Not exactly the perfect pedigree for a party leader. At least she wasn't a member of the Socialist Workers' Party ;)

Problem is, she's quite articulate, like Russel Norman. They both sound quite good, unless you listen. Many do not listen. I seriously doubt the Greens would have 10 % or more support, or even half that, if voters really knew what they are all about.

CJ
06-05-2013, 08:53 AM
Problem is, she's quite articulate, like Russel Norman. They both sound quite good, unless you listen. Many do not listen. I seriously doubt the Greens would have 10 % or more support, or even half that, if voters really knew what they are all about.I haven't heard much of her but Russell was damn good at the last election. He was everything that Goff wasn't.

I think that is part of the problem with them - they can say power companies rip you off, we will save you $300 and it sounds so good and convincing. But I dont think it is the whole picture and they are (un)intentionally misleading people.

Another comment: if Labour and the Greens have the same policies, Turia and Russell will sell it a lot better. Labour should be concerned.

iceman
06-05-2013, 10:41 AM
Yet another proof we are slowly heading in the right direction while most other western economies are either stuck or going backwards :t_up:



http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=10881702

slimwin
06-05-2013, 11:14 AM
If say they haven't started fixing things that aren't broken in dairy. Unlike the greens will.

Major von Tempsky
06-05-2013, 12:08 PM
I think the lesson in that very interesting Herald article is for EZ and Possum who are always bewailing the state of NZ manufacturing.
It clearly shows that unlike Australia, NZ manufacturing is growing.

However I'm still not convinced that NZ manufacturing should grow apart from niche and hard to transport items.
I'd be happier, if it gave an overall higher standard of living to NZ, for manufacturing to nearly disappear so we could concentrate on our activities in which we have a comparative advantage - agriculture, horticulture, fishing, forestry, tourism and services. Let the Bangladeshis make our clothes and the Vietnamese our shoes....

POSSUM THE CAT
06-05-2013, 12:22 PM
Major Von Tempsky what are the other 80% of the population going to be Employed. Even if you can export all the production as there will be nobody here with Money to buy more than a small portion of what is produced.

elZorro
06-05-2013, 01:12 PM
I think the lesson in that very interesting Herald article is for EZ and Possum who are always bewailing the state of NZ manufacturing.
It clearly shows that unlike Australia, NZ manufacturing is growing.

However I'm still not convinced that NZ manufacturing should grow apart from niche and hard to transport items.
I'd be happier, if it gave an overall higher standard of living to NZ, for manufacturing to nearly disappear so we could concentrate on our activities in which we have a comparative advantage - agriculture, horticulture, fishing, forestry, tourism and services. Let the Bangladeshis make our clothes and the Vietnamese our shoes....

MVT, if dairying is so good, why are nearly half of all dairy farmers going to report a loss for the last season? Because their interest costs and other farm overheads swamped out their income during the drought. In any case, normal returns are modest. Looking at the smaller size of our country, how much longer will we have before the exporting of our technology overseas results in powerful competitors in low-waged economies? The data is worse for drystock farmers. As PTC states, these businesses are all low in employee count.

Where did we suggest our manufacturers should be making shoes and clothes? Only at the very top end. But if you use your imagination a bit more, you'd see there are a lot of other areas we should be having a go at.

Finally, I'd be interested in your figures on the number employed in manufacturing here since say, 2003. You might be right about it increasing lately, that's because the GFC effect was made worse by National's policy of removing a lot of assistance to struggling SMEs, to help fund the tax breaks. Only now is National realising that they may have put the brakes on too hard. Stephen Joyce was on TV the other day exhorting SMEs to gear up and take on staff. And we're looking at him and wondering if National's finished gutting the public sector yet.

We're getting two conflicting messages.

craic
06-05-2013, 02:29 PM
Have a look at todays figures - reflected in a rampant sharemarket up over 40 points. Dairy farmers report a loss because many of them were not dairy farmers before and bought into this sector at nonsensical prices in the belief that inflation would bale them out. This is the same equation that investors use on the share market - sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.

iceman
06-05-2013, 03:43 PM
iceman - are you claiming the current, and very mediocre, National party invented diary farming and house price inflation? ;)

Not sure how you read that from my post Belg ! But I do think the current Government has found a reasonably successful way in between extreme austerity which risks causing too much hardship for many and extreme and irresponsible borrow/spend/print money policies that are proving to be completely ineffectual around the World.
NZ is benefiting and slowly working itself out of the World recession quicker and better than most. That's just a simple fact, wherever you look, but of course we can and should do better.

I spend a lot of my time traveling all around the World and its easy to see (and people tell you) that most of the countries and people I visit, would love to have their economies as healthy as ours currently is.

The constant nagging and negativity about NZ from you Lefties annoys me ! Stop concentrating on the negative and wake up and smell the roses :)

fungus pudding
06-05-2013, 03:54 PM
Not sure how you read that from my post Belg ! But I do think the current Government has found a reasonably successful way in between extreme austerity which risks causing too much hardship for many and extreme and irresponsible borrow/spend/print money policies that are proving to be completely ineffectual around the World.
NZ is benefiting and slowly working itself out of the World recession quicker and better than most. That's just a simple fact, wherever you look, but of course we can and should do better.

I spend a lot of my time traveling all around the World and its easy to see (and people tell you) that most of the countries and people I visit, would love to have their economies as healthy as ours currently is.

The constant nagging and negativity about NZ from you Lefties annoys me ! Stop concentrating on the negative and wake up and smell the roses :)

Exactly. A trip abroad does put things in perspective. The other comment often heard abroad is how lucky we are to have such a good Prime Minister. He's universally popular. Without a doubt he has drummed up huge publicity for New Zealand. Quite right about the negativity too. It gets pretty tiring. A change of attitude would certainly help in a lot of cases.

Major von Tempsky
07-05-2013, 12:21 PM
He's doing a darn good job, the IMF and other countries think so, better now than Australia (which happens to be Labour) he is streets ahead of any other NZ politician in popular support.
Possum, you really really need a course in Economics and the advantages of specialisation and exchange through overseas trade.
Any decrease in manufacturing will be taken up by the expansion of the other sectors I mentioned and NZ's standard of living will be rather higher than it is now.

iceman
07-05-2013, 01:52 PM
So the Green/Labour petition was found to have around 100,000 false or duplicated signatures. What a disgrace and they, particularly the Greens & Russel Norman who have lead and used tax payer funds for this fiasco, should hang their heads in shame. A ridiculous waste of tax payers money !
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10882084

elZorro
07-05-2013, 03:10 PM
So the Green/Labour petition was found to have around 100,000 false or duplicated signatures. What a disgrace and they, particularly the Greens & Russel Norman who have lead and used tax payer funds for this fiasco, should hang their heads in shame. A ridiculous waste of tax payers money !
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10882084

That would be one take on the article Iceman, but some signatures were illegible or incomplete, and I think it would have been based on a sample, not a complete read of all the documents. I know my details were filled in correctly :)

Labour/Greens will be back out collecting signatures for another 2 months, until the deadline. I don't suppose they can count on your support then?

Selling off part of the assets will be a big waste of taxpayer's money - previous taxpayers'. That MRP cash would not rebuild a fraction of the assets being sold off.

It's a firesale, selling a business off just when all the hard establishment work has been done, because it's the easiest way to balance the books. It's lazy and criminal management of our country, pure and simple.

iceman
07-05-2013, 03:21 PM
That would be one take on the article Iceman, but some signatures were illegible or incomplete, and I think it would have been based on a sample, not a complete read of all the documents. I know my details were filled in correctly :)


I expected you to do better than this response EZ ! I know I sometimes (and quite correctly) question the intelligence of voters on the far left but even I would not suggest 1 in 4 can not write their name and address in a legible manner ;)

BIRMANBOY
07-05-2013, 04:28 PM
If they could remember what it was it probably would have been more legible.
I expected you to do better than this response EZ ! I know I sometimes (and quite correctly) question the intelligence of voters on the far left but even I would not suggest 1 in 4 can not write their name and address in a legible manner ;)

iceman
07-05-2013, 09:12 PM
Only 16,500 to go? That won't take much effort at all.

Must say that Key's comments sound quite desperate. What's the matter, John? I that cliam of mandate going to bite you on your oh-so-popular posterior?

Nah quite correct Belg. Another $50k of tax payers money should do it. By then the SOE's will be sold and majority of voters happy with the return, but the few remaining (of course I don't include you Belg) troglodytes thumping their chests with a "V "sign in the air. Sadly about 3 years late like other Green/Labour policies and do nothing but waste even more tax payer's dollars

janner
07-05-2013, 09:44 PM
He's doing a darn good job, the IMF .

Are you aware of the " Ligarde List " ???

The IMF can not be trusted..

Yes I agree with you that JK doing a good job.. Much better than What's his name .. Shearer and norman will ever do..

But as my school report always said.. CAN DO BETTER..

elZorro
08-05-2013, 06:38 AM
Iceman, I'm just waiting for something even more embarrassing for National than new MP Mr Gilmore being tearful on TV about his behaviour. He had been given the word 'arrogant' to describe a negative trait. He's still an MP, but it must be one of the worst starts into public office - ever.

As I write this, I can hear Steven Joyce on TV3 doing the smooth talk to paper over the latest bungles with Novopay, Solid Energy etc, and David Shearer has just been on, showing increasing confidence when talking about the referendum on state asset sales.

I disagree with Janner - I think we'll see a lot more of David Shearer on TV leading up to the elections. By then, NZers might recognise which party holds more arrogant 'hollow men'.

At last, a comprehensive item on the Labour/Green power regulation proposal from a commentator.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10881834

The Canterbury area job recovery is well under way now, as the locals get on with rebuilding. The number employed in the area has risen to just above the level it was before the second major quake (but not as high as it was under Labour). While some new jobs are in the healthcare and social services area, the most accessible jobs for many, will be in SMEs.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/rebuilding-christchurch/8644634/Recovery-brings-15-000-new-jobs-to-Canterbury

iceman
08-05-2013, 07:35 AM
Iceman, I'm just waiting for something even more embarrassing for National than new MP Mr Gilmore being tearful on TV about his behaviour. He had been given the word 'arrogant' to describe a negative trait. He's still an MP, but it must be one of the worst starts into public office - ever.


Totally agree EZ about his behaviour and I think he should be sacked. But our silly MMP system doesn't give anyone the authority to sack him, like so many other before him. But being the worst ever to hold public office I don't agree with. Remember Taito Philip Field for example ?

CJ
08-05-2013, 07:52 AM
Totally agree EZ about his behaviour and I think he should be sacked. But our silly MMP system doesn't give anyone the authority to sack him, like so many other before him. Crazy isn't it. He can be sacked from the Party but despite the fact he only got in due to the party list, he stays on as an MP. List MP's should be treated more like employees (ie. puppets for their party), not true MP's who are responsible to their electorate.

elZorro
08-05-2013, 07:53 AM
Totally agree EZ about his behaviour and I think he should be sacked. But our silly MMP system doesn't give anyone the authority to sack him, like so many other before him. But being the worst ever to hold public office I don't agree with. Remember Taito Philip Field for example ?

Yes, although that was a few years into office, and Taito was voted in with a strong majority. It was a relatively small amount of possible gain (some cheaper tiling on a house etc), but that wasn't the point. Helen Clark set very high standards, and he was gone.

Tracy Watkins on Gilmore: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/8644578/Errant-MP-rescued-by-the-numbers-game

iceman
08-05-2013, 07:55 AM
Crazy isn't it. He can be sacked from the Party but despite the fact he only got in due to the party list, he stays on as an MP. List MP's should be treated more like employees (ie. puppets for their party), not true MP's who are responsible to their electorate.

Totally agree CJ. Nobody ever voted for this arrogant clown and very few voted for Brendon Horan and the likes of Alamein Kopu should anyone still remember her (hope I got her name right). Yet nobody can get rid of them ! Crazy indeed.

craic
08-05-2013, 08:43 AM
How many of the Greens have actually won a seat lately? One of Labours biggest losers, ever, was Norm Kirks son who was handed the safest Labour seat in the country, Sydenham. Clowns appear in every circus.

fungus pudding
08-05-2013, 08:51 AM
Crazy isn't it. He can be sacked from the Party but despite the fact he only got in due to the party list, he stays on as an MP. List MP's should be treated more like employees (ie. puppets for their party), not true MP's who are responsible to their electorate.

Exactly. The party vote should belong to the party. If they choose to sack someone he/she should simply be replaced from the list. An electorate MP is a different kettle of fish.

fungus pudding
08-05-2013, 08:57 AM
How many of the Greens have actually won a seat lately? One of Labours biggest losers, ever, was Norm Kirks son who was handed the safest Labour seat in the country, Sydenham. Clowns appear in every circus.

Yep. Kirk was a ripper. Ended up in some overseas prison from memory. Chris Carter 'left' in spectacular fashion too.

iceman
08-05-2013, 08:58 AM
Yes, although that was a few years into office, and Taito was voted in with a strong majority. It was a relatively small amount of possible gain (some cheaper tiling on a house etc), but that wasn't the point. Helen Clark set very high standards, and he was gone.

Tracy Watkins on Gilmore: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/8644578/Errant-MP-rescued-by-the-numbers-game

Good attempt at trying to rewrite history EZ. It was not a small amount and he used the labourers both in Samoa and NZ. Nor was it a small matter and only dealt with because of Clark's "high standards". The fact it it was so serious that he went to jail for a few years for it.
No need to try and defend such actions and irrelevant whether they come from the left or right. They are completely unacceptable full stop.

Major von Tempsky
08-05-2013, 09:13 AM
"Are you aware of the Ligarde list? The IMF cannot be trusted".

Quoi? The LAgarde list (Christine Lagarde used to be French Finance Minister and is now Managing Director of the IMF) is/was a list of prominent people in various countries who cheated big time on their taxes by using off-shore tax havens. She released one to a Greek government last year who rapidly impounded it, kept it secret, and warned everyone on it to take evasive action. Parallel problems in some other countries. The IMF have subsequently published these lists re problem countries.
What's not to be trusted about the IMF concerning that? I'm all for cracking down on tax evaders/avoiders - they raise the taxes for you and I and spread a climate of corruption and crime.
Since Christine has become CEO the IMF has taken a much easier line with 3rd World countries.
The only people who can now complain about the IMF are way out right wing billionaires. Is that who you are supporting?

Major von Tempsky
08-05-2013, 09:18 AM
Aaron Gilmore only stays in to the next election then he's out because National will effectively dump him from their list.

elZorro
08-05-2013, 10:37 AM
Good attempt at trying to rewrite history EZ. It was not a small amount and he used the labourers both in Samoa and NZ. Nor was it a small matter and only dealt with because of Clark's "high standards". The fact it it was so serious that he went to jail for a few years for it.
No need to try and defend such actions and irrelevant whether they come from the left or right. They are completely unacceptable full stop.

Taito was out of the prison system by 2011, and is now working in the area of property development..

But I was a bit mistaken about Mr Gilmore, he was chosen by the National Party to contest a Labour safe seat, was in parliament for three years as a list MP last term, and this term was narrowly out of office from after the election, until Lockwood Smith left in 2013.

So I see his point of view, why don't we recognise who he is yet? Well we know a lot about him now. As MVT commneted, if he's lowered just a few numbers down the list, he won't be back as an MP. Before getting into politics, he worked with Tony Ryall, advising on the sale of SOEs (late 1990s). Has tertiary quals.

So really, he should have known better than to shoot his mouth off, in a place like NZ.

slimwin
08-05-2013, 11:15 AM
Did any body check to see if that waiter actually was dickhead?

Tounge firmly planted in cheek.

iceman
08-05-2013, 11:37 AM
if he's lowered just a few numbers down the list, he won't be back as an MP.


If you think they need to move him down a few numbers to get him out at the next election, you must believe that National will get a few more MPs at the next election. It is music to my ears that you ooze such confidence ;)

Jay
08-05-2013, 11:54 AM
Exactly. The party vote should belong to the party. If they choose to sack someone he/she should simply be replaced from the list. An electorate MP is a different kettle of fish.

Agree FP - how can they stay on as an independent when nobody actually voted for them in the first place -only indirectly via the party vote, which therefore means another person from the same party should replace the sacked list MP

POSSUM THE CAT
08-05-2013, 12:10 PM
Simple answer put the lists on the ballot paper & let the public rate them in order of preference for all parties

Jay
08-05-2013, 03:18 PM
Who is going to sit/stand at the booth and rank up to 50 or more candidates for each of the major parties.
It would be "I know about 10" then sequential after that - or not bother to vote at all cause it is all too hard:confused:

fungus pudding
08-05-2013, 03:20 PM
Simple answer put the lists on the ballot paper & let the public rate them in order of preference for all parties

That's not a simple answer.

Major von Tempsky
09-05-2013, 11:42 AM
"Good news on the jobs front beating economists expectations - Statistics New Zealand's Household Labour Force Survey:

The unemployment rate fell to 6.2 percent in the first quarter (lowest since March 2010)

The number of people in work up 1.7 percent

Participation rate 67.8% from 67.2% ".

Anyone sane and unbiassed would regard this as good news.
However I predict that EZ, Possum and Belge will contort in rage and abuse :-)
Except of course it had happened under a Labour Govt and then they would have regarded it as good news.

fungus pudding
09-05-2013, 11:47 AM
"Good news on the jobs front beating economists expectations - Statistics New Zealand's Household Labour Force Survey:

The unemployment rate fell to 6.2 percent in the first quarter (lowest since March 2010)

The number of people in work up 1.7 percent

Participation rate 67.8% from 67.2% ".

Anyone sane and unbiassed would regard this as good news.
However I predict that EZ, Possum and Belge will contort in rage and abuse :-)
Except of course it had happened under a Labour Govt and then they would have regarded it as good news.

They'll actually be extremely disappointed. They're malcontents and love bad news so they can blame National. The wealth and success of the country means nothing to them if they lose a chance to moan and whinge.

JBmurc
09-05-2013, 01:19 PM
Russel Norman that guy talks some bollocks in his eyes every Nat voter in RICH and every Green voter is poor working class .....just about every couple weeks he keeps saying it.....fact is I'm sure voters of both sides are a mix of different wealth.....but he keeps wanting to drive a wedge in the facts and play like he's robin-hood ....the fact is he's a complete GP tool

POSSUM THE CAT
09-05-2013, 02:02 PM
Major von Tempsky was the increase in the prison service or thousand part time jobs replacing 965 full time jobs Figures can lie if you do not know how they are calculated. remember somebody getting paid for working one hour a week is regarded as being in paid employment for statistics

craic
09-05-2013, 02:40 PM
Major von Tempsky was the increase in the prison service or thousand part time jobs replacing 965 full time jobs Figures can lie if you do not know how they are calculated. remember somebody getting paid for working one hour a week is regarded as being in paid employment for statistics
I hope you are not referring to public servants?

Major von Tempsky
09-05-2013, 08:06 PM
Nice one Craic ;-), no wonder Wellington is declining!

iceman
10-05-2013, 05:07 AM
I hope you are not referring to public servants?

As my teenage daughters would say, ROFL

elZorro
10-05-2013, 06:52 AM
Whale Oil on TV this morning, hoping Aaron Gilmore will disappear before the budget. Good news for National though, about the jobless numbers decreasing. They have a way to go to get them down to Labour's result of about 3% from memory, just a few years ago.

I have to wonder if the cash from MRP will simply be used to fix some gaping holes in the government's cashflow. Here's another one.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-earthquake/8655455/Govt-faces-1-billion-red-zone-shortfall

iceman
10-05-2013, 06:58 AM
The Gilmore saga has reminded me about legislation passed in the House a few years ago called the Waka Jumping Bill. I do recall it had an expiry date on it. Can anybody enlighten me on why this was done, i.e. the expiration date ?

POSSUM THE CAT
10-05-2013, 08:27 AM
Belgarion TOO LONG

elZorro
11-05-2013, 06:44 AM
More curious detail from the past of Aaron Gilmore, National MP.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/gilmores-inappropriate-emails-revealed-gb-p-139948

Major von Tempsky
11-05-2013, 07:34 AM
Long enough to easily beat Labour's economic record :-)

craic
11-05-2013, 07:39 AM
That stuff has been out for days A more salient point. Had I, in my professional role, been preparing a report for a court for sentencing, the first thing I would have noticed and considered would have been the greatly overdone mop of hair and what is it concealing? At the top , to the back is a clear bald patch which will quickly join the receding forehead covered by carefully managed frontal hair. I would have visited his vanity, head on as this is his greatest weakness.
More curious detail from the past of Aaron Gilmore, National MP.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/gilmores-inappropriate-emails-revealed-gb-p-139948

Major von Tempsky
11-05-2013, 09:53 AM
Fascinating to look at Aaron Gilmore's skull....to anyone who has followed all the articles about human evolution, relationship of homo neanderthalensis and homo sapiens.

A receding chin, a receding forehead, a long (from front to back) low braincase, a long face from the front in the sense of the proportion of it taken up from browridge down to mouth and large eyes.

Given that analysis has found that all non African races have between 2% to 6% Neanderthal admixture from interbreeding in two past periods you would have to guess that AG must be way up at 6% or even higher....

elZorro
11-05-2013, 02:05 PM
Major von Tempsky - was the increase in the prison service or thousand part time jobs replacing 965 full time jobs? Figures can lie if you do not know how they are calculated. Remember somebody getting paid for working one hour a week is regarded as being in paid employment for statistics

This comment bothered me, I wasn't sure about it. You're right though PTC, the 9th May survey was one of a few types used to measure employment, and it's done by extrapolating some sample households. 1 hour in paid employment counts in the Household Labour Force Survey, out on 9th May.

http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/income-and-work/employment_and_unemployment/explaining-labour-market-stats.aspx

Another measure is to total all the employment forms filled out for the month. This means that people working more than one job are counted again for each job.

I thought maybe the tax payments to govt would show up what's really happening. This was a surprise, as it shows that while Labour in its last three terms had record employment percentages, an ability to pay off old debt, and a growing tax base, the National Govt has recovered to even more net tax and excise income, yet the net position has worsened after the GFC and other disasters. Even PAYE revenue appears to be up on a trend, after dropping back. Inflation and an increasing population help here of course.

However the actual number of people employed is hard to gauge, considering the four techniques to measure it range from about 1.7mill to 2.2mill at the end of 2011. The latest HLF survey consistently produces the highest numbers.

http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/income-and-work/employment_and_unemployment/different-employment-measures.aspx#quarterly

Here is the page for tax outturn data tables, a pity it's not all one excel table for the last 20 years.

http://www.treasury.govt.nz/government/revenue/taxoutturn

Another treasury report from the end of 2012 is sober reading. It shows the effect of the GFC in 2008, and the rampant borrowing that has ensued. This year govt will issue $14billion of bonds to raise the extra funds needed. This drops back for a bit and then has to continue, just to make the interest payments I assume. We'll have recovered to the same low debt as a percentage of GDP that Labour left us with (4%) by 2027, (it's now heading for 30% of GDP) as long as all the modelling constraints are met, the govt gets $6billion over 4 years from asset sales, etc.

http://www.treasury.govt.nz/budget/forecasts/hyefu2012/hyefu12-pt4of11.pdf

If it was my business or my private affairs, I would be a bit unhappy, knowing what a great position I'd reached in early 2008. Treasury mentions that after a few years, the budget surpluses will allow the debt to be paid off slowly, and add a buffer for any future shocks. These charts already look bad, without factoring in a future shock.

I don't see any cheap energy or other super profits for NZ looming clearly on the horizon, so while I understand the govt's interest in opening up the offshore and onshore areas for gas/oil permits, this is still a long way off being a new reality. We are also being told by various market spectators to watch out for a sharemarket plunge, that this bull market has to end sometime.

John Key tells us there's 1,000 more doctors and 2,000 more nurses employed now, than in 2008. But there are a lot of other public sectors that have shed staff, and many private companies have done the same. The govt and the market is saying "be careful".

I just wonder if Labour's take on the last few years would have been different, and what position we'd be in now, if they were still in office.

POSSUM THE CAT
12-05-2013, 08:30 AM
El Zorro I was taught at an early age their was Lies, Dam Lies & Statistics, and all three could be used to try & make you think that the issuer new what they were talking about.

craic
12-05-2013, 10:20 AM
Arians are a sub-culture of Punjabi Muslims. Gilmore looks far more like a Scottish Presbyterian, God help him.

Major von Tempsky
12-05-2013, 03:07 PM
The Nazi's observations were totally unscientific and incorrect.
Aryans have between 2% to 6% Neanderthal DNA.

elZorro
13-05-2013, 06:45 AM
MVT: How robust is the procedure for picking the members of party political lists? That is the more fundamental question. Bryce Edwards has a good roundup of comments on the background to Aaron Gilmore tendering his resignation.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10882842

It sounds like both major parties have a bit of a shortage of (good) candidates for their lists. How many people are prepared for the public scrutiny of their affairs in public and private life, for the possible maximum income of about $200k p.a., but with a huge amount of work, if they are to do it properly? They would need to be dedicated, driven, and maybe a bit egocentric.

Aaron Gilmore says he's going to reengineer his life after parliament, but with more humility and grace. I wish him well.

Now we can concentrate on the asset selldowns, the Sky Casino deal, the budget deficits.

iceman
13-05-2013, 07:50 AM
MVT: How robust is the procedure for picking the members of party political lists? That is the more fundamental question. Bryce Edwards has a good roundup of comments on the background to Aaron Gilmore tendering his resignation.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10882842

It sounds like both major parties have a bit of a shortage of (good) candidates for their lists. How many people are prepared for the public scrutiny of their affairs in public and private life, for the possible maximum income of about $200k p.a., but with a huge amount of work, if they are to do it properly? They would need to be dedicated, driven, and maybe a bit egocentric.

Aaron Gilmore says he's going to reengineer his life after parliament, but with more humility and grace. I wish him well.

Now we can concentrate on the asset selldowns, the Sky Casino deal, the budget deficits.

Yes the Gilmore fiasco, as many before it, really questions the process of candidates selections for the lists . But it isn't limited to the big 2 parties. Just look at some of the people that have got in on Winston's (Horan et al) & Rodney's (Garrett) coat tails.

But agree with you EZ time to focus on real issues and the never ending good news stories coming out like the convention centre (triumphed by Labour's Len Brown as a great success), asset selldowns, reduced unemployment, budget surplus within reach, crime rates at lowest level in 30 years, 13000 new jobs created through 90 day trials, steady economic growth, low interest rates, 200,000 low income family homes insulated, 20 billion on infrastructure spending 2012-2015 (helped by proceeds for selldowns), $ 330 million cleaning up our polluted waterways. Its just never ending ;)

CJ
13-05-2013, 08:05 AM
Yes the Gilmore fiasco, as many before it, really questions the process of candidates selections for the lists . But it isn't limited to the big 2 parties. Just look at some of the people that have got in on Winston's (Horan et al) & Rodney's (Garrett) coat tails.

But agree with you EZ time to focus on real issues and the never ending good news stories coming out like the convention centre (triumphed by Labour's Len Brown as a great success), asset selldowns, reduced unemployment, budget surplus within reach, crime rates at lowest level in 30 years, 13000 new jobs created through 90 day trials, steady economic growth, low interest rates, 200,000 low income family homes insulated, 20 billion on infrastructure spending 2012-2015 (helped by proceeds for selldowns), $ 330 million cleaning up our polluted waterways. Its just never ending ;)Winstone also brought in the guy (Andrew Williams) that got drunk and pissed on a tree in Takapuna. He didn't get nearly as much media attention as Gilmore has despite that fact he was Mayor at the time! (I think). He also didn't get voted in to his local seat for the local body elections but somehow made it into parliament.

Nationals plan seems to be going well with the economy seeming to pick up. It will be interesting to see if this gives them the tail wind they need for next year or if small thing like Gilmore or big thinks like disagreeing with policies that got them in last time (MoM) push thinks in Labour/Greens favour.

craic
13-05-2013, 08:45 AM
And it seems that we are about to witness a great mess appearing in the economy of the "lucky country" off our west coast. Maybe we could lend them some of our list MPs to get them through the crisis?

Major von Tempsky
13-05-2013, 08:47 AM
And don't forget Alamein Kopu of the Alliance Party. She was absolutely, hopelessly, and very visibly out of her depth so she in effect withdrew from Parliament except for occasionally and very briefly showing up to cast her vote for National to get back at Anderton for saying some nasty and obviously true things about her.
She was chosen because she was a woman, was Maori and came from the "right area". It was like having a quota for gay lefthanded whales which had to be filled.
All parties are too quick to pick someone perceived to be well known without bothering to check whether they have a gambling habit, drug addiction, beat their wives, have been fired from several jobs, have a criminal record, the IQ of a pinhead & &. It's sheer laziness and carelessness on the part of the party leaders and party hierarchies.
At least Alamein has been 100% successful at one thing - she managed to disappear without trace after dropping out of Parliament. Well done Alamein...

elZorro
13-05-2013, 10:13 AM
Yes the Gilmore fiasco, as many before it, really questions the process of candidates selections for the lists . But it isn't limited to the big 2 parties. Just look at some of the people that have got in on Winston's (Horan et al) & Rodney's (Garrett) coat tails.

But agree with you EZ time to focus on real issues and the never ending good news stories coming out like the convention centre (triumphed by Labour's Len Brown as a great success), asset selldowns, reduced unemployment, budget surplus within reach, crime rates at lowest level in 30 years, 13000 new jobs created through 90 day trials, steady economic growth, low interest rates, 200,000 low income family homes insulated, 20 billion on infrastructure spending 2012-2015 (helped by proceeds for selldowns), $ 330 million cleaning up our polluted waterways. Its just never ending ;)

I have yet to disect the Sky City deal, but some of your other comments are too good to pass up on. Yes, unemployment is starting to drop back, but 13,000 part-time new or temporary jobs are only replacing those previously let go by the private sector. I admit that Labour trying to force employers to pay everyone the minimum wage no matter what their age, backfired. It was fair policy, but maybe employers are having more trouble than I thought, and we all know younger workers take a while to get going at a chargeable pace. 200,000 homes insulated, that would be the Greens policy - Tui mine clean-up complete, that would be the Greens and Helen Clark's government that ensured that was started and locked in before they left office (http://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/tui-mine-clean-funding-announced).

Looks to me like National has decided a think-big infrastructure spend is the easiest way to make it look like things are heading in the right direction. There are a lot of trucks and equipment being sold around the place. I just hope their books can withstand higher interest rates, and any market downturn that affects the bond finance markets. Otherwise we're heading for the out-of-control area Muldoon took us to, a generation ago.

CJ
13-05-2013, 10:25 AM
200,000 homes insulated, that would be the Greens policy Just picking this one out. Isn't it good that a government can implement an opposition policy when it is the right thing to do. I wish there was more of this.

National needs to start talking about the age of super. Labour needs to start talking about interest free student loans. MMP is meant to be more collaborative but we still have a distinct left - right enemy attitude.

Major von Tempsky
13-05-2013, 10:50 AM
But in economic terms Muldoon was a socialist, to the left of Cullen and every Labour Party Finance Minister or spokesman since him.
He was an interventionist, a non stop stream of regulations and acts bringing everything under Government control. The NZ dollar was fixed, not floating and Muldoon intervened directly to set its level. The Reserve Bank was not independent but directly under Government control and Muldoon raised and lowered reserve ratios on finance companies and banks as to how much cash they had to keep at the Reserve Bank. His prime motivation was to avoid unemployment and he used to scrawl on Treasury proposals "No! This would cause too much unemployment!". There was no privatisation, quite the reverse. So if you are looking back to the most socialist Finance Minister pick Muldoon. Just as if National is seeking the most right wing Finance Minister pick Roger Douglas.
And if you are criticising Muldoon then you are criticising socialism in action.

iceman
13-05-2013, 11:28 AM
Looks to me like National has decided a think-big infrastructure spend is the easiest way to make it look like things are heading in the right direction. There are a lot of trucks and equipment being sold around the place. I just hope their books can withstand higher interest rates, and any market downturn that affects the bond finance markets. Otherwise we're heading for the out-of-control area Muldoon took us to, a generation ago.

I think now when the World is in a huge economic downturn is exactly the right time for Government to stimulate by spending on infrastructure. But like you, I am concerned about higher interest rates when they eventually come so we can agree that releasing equity from other assets such as gentailers to fund the necessary infrastructure projects (schools, hospitals, roads) is a good idea and will minimise the risk to Government of higher interest rates.

craic
13-05-2013, 12:01 PM
And now National will replace Gilmore with a Lesbian, Maori Solo mum. Yesterday Englebert Humperdink interviewed on the radio and one of his recent major hits is a song about a lesbian seagull. I'm getting too old for all this.

elZorro
13-05-2013, 12:02 PM
I think now when the World is in a huge economic downturn is exactly the right time for Government to stimulate by spending on infrastructure. But like you, I am concerned about higher interest rates when they eventually come so we can agree that releasing equity from other assets such as gentailers to fund the necessary infrastructure projects (schools, hospitals, roads) is a good idea and will minimise the risk to Government of higher interest rates.

Except that these assets can be sold down only because they produce an income well above the cost of borrowing. So we'd be better off holding on to them. Far better to use the levers of power to motivate the SMEs and exporters to move into, or develop with their own capital, higher income areas. This would increase the tax and employment base. You can't do that while you're trimming costs in most areas and selling off state assets - well, not without looking like a hypocrite.

Craic, yes I noticed this, your only solace would be that National still has a way to go to catch up with Labour in the gay stakes..it takes all kinds.

CJ
13-05-2013, 12:10 PM
Except that these assets can be sold down only because they produce an income well above the cost of borrowing. So we'd be better off holding on to them.The low cost of borrowing is only available if our debt levels are sensible. Whether we are close to the line, I dont know but it is not something I want tested.

fungus pudding
13-05-2013, 12:26 PM
The low cost of borrowing is only available if our debt levels are sensible. Whether we are close to the line, I dont know but it is not something I want tested.

And that's exactly the point that few critics seem to appreciate. Borrowing is not sensible if it risks a reduction in our credit rating.

CJ
13-05-2013, 12:31 PM
And that's exactly the point that few critics seem to appreciate. Borrowing is not sensible if it risks a reduction in our credit rating.To be fair to the Critics, some do appreciate this but point out we are far from the basket case the PIIGS are - at least as far as govt debt goes.

Ireland apparently just raise some bonds at 3.5%.

fungus pudding
13-05-2013, 12:52 PM
To be fair to the Critics, some do appreciate this but point out we are far from the basket case the PIIGS are - at least as far as govt debt goes.

Ireland apparently just raise some bonds at 3.5%.

We are. Financial management has been damn good in NZ, and these partial floats are part of getting us on track for the next few decades. A month or so in Europe will convince the sceptics. At least we will be able to expand our infrastructure and that is right out of the question for many economies. Besides I think some private shareholding in these companies is no bad thing - although ideally a couple could and should be sold outright to get some real competition in place.

Major von Tempsky
13-05-2013, 04:43 PM
You were always the wrong sex to be a lesbian Craic, let alone a lesbian seagull. And I note that Lesbian Civil Unions are turning over very rapidly, must be all the different positions they go through.

warthog
13-05-2013, 06:39 PM
Winstone also brought in the guy (Andrew Williams) that got drunk and pissed on a tree in Takapuna. He didn't get nearly as much media attention as Gilmore has despite that fact he was Mayor at the time! (I think).

Yeah, but he never threatened to get the tree sacked.

For some rare, serious comment on this matter:
http://www.thecivilian.co.nz/aaron-gilmore-to-return-to-life-as-suave-billionaire/

There's a solid piece on the Skycity issue also :-)
http://www.thecivilian.co.nz/john-key-steven-joyce-play-pokies-to-raise-money-for-convention-centre/

elZorro
14-05-2013, 07:44 AM
I'd never seen that website, cheers Warthog.

I'm sure Mr Gilmore's leaving speech will be summarised on TV tonight, could be interesting.
Richard Swainson, Waikato Times opinion writer, wrote today that it has perhaps taken Mr Gilmore to show the rest of NZ what is really behind National's policies. John Key might be an everyday-looking guy that we'd have a beer with, but the policies they produce are looking after the top echelon of the country.

The Skycity deal is a business deal, 12% return. But even better than that, it's a guaranteed return. For 35 years. The government gave them that, they were apparently the only business in NZ that deserved it. If Labour gets in next term and tries to increase the casino tax levy (Casinos pay sod-all out of their profits), or do anything else that might harm casino profits, then it would need to refund up to 100% of the $300mill Skycity is paying for the conference centre construction. Locked in at a reducing rate for 35 years. I assume they'll be gifted the land they need from the state, too. Winston Peters said that 96% of the customers at SkyCity will be NZers. They'll have the allure of another 270 slot machines and 40 gaming tables.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8667465/SkyCity-return-put-at-12pc-on-centre-deal

craic
14-05-2013, 09:38 AM
I had to work with problem gamblers from time to time in a previous life. All were serious gamblers who had defrauded employers, clubs and the like. They were a very interesting bunch. One, an accountant, gambled on football. He won $150,000 on one bet. the lot went on the sharemarket and he managed to lose every penny of it in a year by picking dogs, turning them over and picking more dogs I found this hard to believe but I had the details. There were many variations but the presence of slot machines or gambling tables doesn't mean diddley squat. they will always gamble. The idea that they are trying to get out of the pits by getting a big win is rubbish - the excitement appears to be playing the game.Remember the days when every pub had a bookie? Maybe we should close Auckland Airport because thats probably where most of the methamphetamine comes in and maybe a port or two?

elZorro
15-05-2013, 06:24 AM
I had to work with problem gamblers from time to time in a previous life. All were serious gamblers who had defrauded employers, clubs and the like. They were a very interesting bunch. One, an accountant, gambled on football. He won $150,000 on one bet. the lot went on the sharemarket and he managed to lose every penny of it in a year by picking dogs, turning them over and picking more dogs I found this hard to believe but I had the details. There were many variations but the presence of slot machines or gambling tables doesn't mean diddley squat. they will always gamble. The idea that they are trying to get out of the pits by getting a big win is rubbish - the excitement appears to be playing the game.Remember the days when every pub had a bookie? Maybe we should close Auckland Airport because thats probably where most of the methamphetamine comes in and maybe a port or two?

Except that ports and airports have other major functions that are 99% of their operations. SkyCity caters mostly to gamblers and hopefully people having a small flutter occasionally. It has been shown several times in the press, that problem gamblers are not always screened from the machines and tables, even if self-banned.

I think the Convention Centre deal has John Key all over it. It's like a big market play. With conventions running next door, SkyCity can pick up many of the hotel stays, and in theory some of those guests will head off to the Casino. They have a deal there that makes it a no-brainer. But I would be interested in finding out what net taxes SkyCity pays the NZ Govt - I already know that the gaming tax levy for a casino (2.5%) is a much smaller percentage than the (37%) for smaller clusters spread around NZ.



Business approves of proposal that Opposition opposes

Dene Mackenzie — 15 May 2013
Business interests on Monday expressed their approval for the economic benefits the proposed $402 million international convention centre would bring to Auckland and New Zealand.
But the Labour, Green and New Zealand First political parties all expressed their opposition and concern about what effects the extra gambling concessions provided by the deal would bring.
The Government and SkyCity Entertainment signed an agreement to build the convention centre with SkyCity paying for the centre in exchange for concessions and an extension to its gambling operations.
Air New Zealand chief executive Christopher Luxton said the planned convention centre, with its capacity of 3,500, would allow NZ to compete to host larger conferences, providing access to a new market.
He said that as an airline based in New Zealand, which has relatively small volumes of business traffic, the conventions market is very important and one which the airline actively target in Australia, Asia and North America.
The 33,000 extra delegates a year the centre is predicted to attract is a significant increase,'' he said.
BusinessNZ chief executive Phil O'Reilly said New Zealand was currently lacking large convention infrastructure and the SkyCity development would result in new business, growth and jobs that would not otherwise have occurred.
“The partnership model that the Government and private sector are working together on for this facility is a good example of creativity and sound planning.”
Tourism New Zealand chief executive Kevin Bowler said convention centres anchored growth strategies for cities by providing for international and domestic business tourism.
An appropriately sized convention centre in Auckland would underpin the city's visitor growth aspirations.
Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei said it was not a free convention centre for Auckland.
“It will be built on the misery and suffering of families left to pick up the pieces from problem gambling. SkyCity has historically been inadequate in its response to responsibilities around problem gambling and money laundering. There is nothing in this agreement that requires them to do a better job.”
Labour leader David Shearer said the deal was dangerous and reckless because it tied future governments to a “dodgy deal.”
“This trades away the right of a future government to clamp down on problem gambling. It is wrong and it's not the way we do business in New Zealand.”
NZ First leader Winston Peters said SkyCity had been given preferential treatment from whoa to go and the Government had bent the immigration visa rules to deliver rich gamblers to the casino.
The Government is likely to move into urgency to pass legislation allowing building the convention centre in exchange for concessions to its gambling operations.
Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce announced the deal along with SkyCity chief executive Nigel Morrison and Auckland Mayor Len Brown.
Construction would start in 2014 with the facility expected to be open in 2017.
In a political twist, the agreement allows for SkyCity to be compensated if the Crown acted in a way to change the concessions listed in the Agreement. Urgency will ensure the Government has enough votes to pass the legislation by requiring its coalition partners to vote with the Government on the issue.
*Dene Mackenzie is business and political editor of the Otago Daily Times.


Adelaide negotiated quite a different deal with Skycity.

http://nz.sports.yahoo.com/news/skycity-adelaide-expansion-deal-224449484.html

Older good background on taxes and the deal, April 2012. (http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/local-news/6715420/Critics-slam-Sky-City-pokie-deal)

Years ago, a National MP stated privately that if MMP was voted in by the public, he was out of there. He did leave, couldn't stand it. I bet most National MPs don't like it much either. But that doesn't stop them voting to keep some of the worst clauses as is, if it gives them more chance of holding onto power in the next election.

http://www.3news.co.nz/No-MMP-changes-before-2014-election/tabid/1607/articleID/297759/Default.aspx

iceman
15-05-2013, 07:21 AM
Just watched David Shearer on TV3 this morning. Am even more confused than normally after he speaks. Does this guy actually have a firm view or policy on anything at all ? Or is he all about silly soundbites and general balderdash ? I would worry if he was ever to become PM and sincerely hope Labour replace him before we eventually get the next Labour PM. Realistically they will probably have 2-4 leaders before they get back into Government so my concerns are probably unnecessary !

CJ
15-05-2013, 07:59 AM
Just watched David Shearer on TV3 this morning. Am even more confused than normally after he speaks. So he has improved then ;)

I thought he would be good for Labour but I dont think he will capture peoples, especially in live debates, like I though he would. Key will eat him for breakfast.

elZorro
15-05-2013, 08:31 AM
So what I take from these posts is that it doesn't matter how bad the National policies look, it's OK, because Labour doesn't have a top-notch frontman yet? I missed most of what Shearer said this morning, so can't comment on that. But when he does get passionate about an issue, he has no problem articulating it.

I think you're both right, every time he gets on camera from now on, Shearer has to do a better job of it. The elections are looming.

CJ
15-05-2013, 09:16 AM
So what I take from these posts is that it doesn't matter how bad the National policies look, it's OK, because Labour doesn't have a top-notch frontman yet? Unfortunately for some people, that is correct and therefore Labour should plan for it.

Some people look at policies though my guess is they are in the minority.

Also remember that (say) 80% of votes are predisposed to either left or right so it is only the 20% in the middle that you need to target. Thats why election bribes work so well as many dont actually look into the policy, they just take the sound bite from the leader and vote in their own self interest.

fungus pudding
15-05-2013, 09:21 AM
Unfortunately for some people, that is correct and therefore Labour should plan for it.

Some people look at policies though my guess is they are in the minority.

Also remember that (say) 80% of votes are predisposed to either left or right so it is only the 20% in the middle that you need to target. Thats why election bribes work so well as many dont actually look into the policy, they just take the sound bite from the leader and vote in their own self interest.

Not quite. It would be more correct to say they think they are voting in their own self interest.

elZorro
16-05-2013, 07:17 AM
Not quite. It would be more correct to say they think they are voting in their own self interest.

I see National starting to talk about lower cost housing etc, moving to capture the middle ground. The budget will also make some changes to R&D stimulus.


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10883924

iceman
16-05-2013, 08:46 AM
I see National starting to talk about lower cost housing etc, moving to capture the middle ground. The budget will also make some changes to R&D stimulus.


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10883924

Of course, us Nelsonians lent Nick Smith to Auckland to start fixing their problems and they welcomed him with open arms and billboards. He has got stuck in to make a difference like he does with everything he touches.

Today's Budget will be interesting as it should indicate which issues National would like to be next year's election issues. The economy and housing obviously their top 2 choices. Interesting to see how Tony Ryall has kept health out of focus and even education has gone quiet !

iceman
16-05-2013, 12:25 PM
More good news http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10884050

Banksie
16-05-2013, 12:42 PM
From the article:

"The expansion in New Zealand contrasts with a slide in Australia, with the two countries this year experiencing the two largest monthly differences in activity levels since the New Zealand measure began in 2002. In Australia, the April index was at 36.7, its lowest result since May 2009."

From the article:
Is it possible to have a boom in NZ while Aus moves into a recession, or are we so dependent on Aus that eventually we will be pulled down as well?

fungus pudding
16-05-2013, 01:13 PM
From the article:

"The expansion in New Zealand contrasts with a slide in Australia, with the two countries this year experiencing the two largest monthly differences in activity levels since the New Zealand measure began in 2002. In Australia, the April index was at 36.7, its lowest result since May 2009."

From the article:
Is it possible to have a boom in NZ while Aus moves into a recession, or are we so dependent on Aus that eventually we will be pulled down as well?

National has put everything in place for NZ's future so it can and will do well regardless of Australia.

elZorro
16-05-2013, 02:09 PM
National has put everything in place for NZ's future so it can and will do well regardless of Australia.

Well they've been in office for over 4.5 years, and they're only just thinking about cheaper housing and R&D rejigging now, with another big asset selldown to come - manufacturing is trending down, unemployment trended up, budget deficits hit record levels, just what have they set in place here FP? Where is the brighter future we were promised?

Banksie
16-05-2013, 02:15 PM
manufacturing is trending down

I am not saying I agree or disagree with National (I am yet to make up my mind)...but how can you say manufacturing is trending down when the article is about manufacturing going up?

POSSUM THE CAT
16-05-2013, 02:39 PM
Banksie which article says manufacturing has gone up.

Banksie
16-05-2013, 03:07 PM
Banksie which article says manufacturing has gone up.


More good newshttp://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10884050

"The BNZ-BusinessNZ performance of manufacturing index rose 1.1 to 54.5 in April from March. That's its highest April level since 2010. A reading above 50 indicates expanding activity, while a reading below 50 implies a contraction. The index has averaged 54.8 so far this year, suggesting healthy and consistent activity, BusinessNZ said."

Or am I misunderstanding the article?

iceman
16-05-2013, 03:25 PM
manufacturing is trending down, unemployment trended up, budget deficits hit record levels

EZ my old mate, are you in NZ or have you departed to planet Labour with Shearer & his motley crew ?

POSSUM THE CAT
16-05-2013, 04:00 PM
Banksie as the article says the average for this year is 15.8 it appears it has actually come down with the report of 15.5

iceman
16-05-2013, 04:26 PM
Banksie as the article says the average for this year is 15.8 it appears it has actually come down with the report of 15.5

Are you reading the same article that Banksie and I are reading ? It doesn't mention the numbers you refer to !

POSSUM THE CAT
16-05-2013, 05:42 PM
Iceman read Banksie's post 1440. That is why I asked him to post his source

Banksie
17-05-2013, 05:50 AM
Banksie as the article says the average for this year is 15.8 it appears it has actually come down with the report of 15.5

Do you mean 54.8 and 54.5? Anything above 50 shows expanding manufacturing. 54.5 for April (the highest since 2010) and 54.8 for YTD. Yes, April is lower than the YTD average but is this not just due to month on month differences, ie. April is always lower than Jan - Mar? I cannot find anything in the article that points towards manufacturing trending down.

elZorro
17-05-2013, 06:01 AM
EZ my old mate, are you in NZ or have you departed to planet Labour with Shearer & his motley crew ?

Iceman, yes, still with planet Labour. While NZ's budget will be the envy of many other countries, let's not forget that National started from a strong balance sheet in 2008, and three Labour terms set that up. Over 50% of businesses would like to see R&D tax credits returned. Because National booted that idea out as soon as they got in, they can't do that policy exactly, but they have made moves in the R&D area, I've yet to check out the changes properly. I concede these should be a move in the right direction. 4 years late though.

In the absence of a strong and increasing tax base to fund increasing domestic costs and repairs to infrastructure, National has had to selldown some of our most highly prized state assets, to be able to afford the necessary new infrastructure without blowing the predicted budget balance in 2015. This doesn't imply the National team are economic geniuses does it?


Budget surplus - but in the margin of error

Dene Mackenzie — 17 May 2013
The New Zealand Government remains on track to record a budget surplus in 2015 though, at $75 million, the surplus remains in the margin of error territory.
Finance Minister Bill English yesterday delivered his fifth Budget which was in major contrast to many around the world, including Australia.
For many, budgets are all about severe austerity programmes which suffocate growth and lead to outrageous offsetting measures by central banks.
The New Zealand Budget was more a case of business as usual with some acknowledgement that any government stimulus would be unwelcome as it might heighten the risk the Reserve Bank might raise interest rates.
BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert said there were not many Western world governments forecasting a surplus any time in the near future.
“Admittedly, the surplus forecast is very much a line-ball call and you wouldn't want to bet your life on it but, frankly, we are not worried whether the actual outcome is a small positive or a small negative,” he said.
“The overall stance represents a broadly balanced budget and that's good enough for now.”
English announced some significant policy shifts which were largely ignored by Opposition MPs. Among what will become one of the most controversial is a change in State housing policy which will see it called “social housing” and allow private providers into the market.
All State house tenants will be subject to a tenancy review and that could see longer-term tenants moved into privately-owned rental accommodation, with some appropriate accommodation allowances.
Micro lending to low-income earners with high debt will be encouraged through the Government talking to non-government organisations (NGOs) and private lenders.
The Government will use its buying power to purchase bulk whiteware for low-income earners who borrow from the micro-lenders. Instead of continually buying second-hand appliances that breakdown and have to replaced, increasing the debt for low-income earners, new appliances with guarantees will be available.
More money is being poured into the Christchurch rebuild with the Government lifting its commitment by $2.1 billion in the Budget to $15 B of the $40 B total.
The Reserve Bank now has some extra tools to try and cool any credit boom. House buyers may have to fund up to 20% of the deposit of a new home rather than the current 5% to 10%.
It is hard to recall a previous Budget where there has been such a lack of commentary. Apart from a few releases from the political parties, and two from trade unions, reaction has been very muted.
Labour and the Greens resorted to cliche criticism with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters at least trying to land a hit on the Government regarding the lack of jobs it has created since 2011.
There was not much for financial markets to get excited about in the Budget. The Government confirmed Meridian Energy would be partially sold down and floated on the New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZX) later this year.
Last year, the partial sale of the largest of the SOEs was expected to raise $3.2 B, making it the largest float in NZ's history.
Research and development received a boost in both funding and the ability to write off some losses.
Economists said there was little to be excited about on any front. But that was exactly what was heartening about the Budget. Bill English said it was about spending well, not spending up large. A Government should be judged on the quality of its spending, not its quantity.
In saying that, English did lift the allowable spending this year by $100 M to $900 M and next year, allowable spending will go to $1 B.
*Dene Mackenzie is business and political editor of the Otago Daily Times.


Comparison with the Aussie budget and situation. (http://tvnz.co.nz/budget-news/nz-causes-stir-across-tasman-5439454)

slimwin
17-05-2013, 07:19 AM
Strong balance sheet in 2008? Excluding blowing all the cash to buy a failing railway,I'm sure pretty much everyone in the OECD can think of something that severly dented every world economy around then.

Great to see a sensible budget in times when sensibility is required. Can't of been too bad as the only the hardened lunatics on the left are complaining,and not very loud at that. I loved the complaint about there being nothing for middle NZ. Middle NZ is smart enough to see getting to surplus and the paying down debt in the "household" is the way forward.

CJ
17-05-2013, 07:34 AM
Labour left government with a strong balance sheet BUT living well beyond their means after an extremely strong economic period. Going into the GFC and then Christchurch would have seen a worse balance sheet that we have seen under National unless they raised taxes. Raising taxes would have taken more money out of the economy and hit the business owners who employ people the most (trickle down theory isn't perfect but it does work to some extent).

Good to see the return of R&D credits. Hopefully it is a lot simpler to apply for than under Labour. Agree that National went to far in removing them as this is our future. To combat Key's "Wellington is dying" we need to change it from a government/Head office hub to a tech hub so more R&D is needed.

CJ
17-05-2013, 07:45 AM
A couple of points on SOE sales coming out of the budget:

- I cant remember exact figures but even with the asset sales, assets owned by the government is expect to grow from ~$250B -> $260B. The SOE's are hardly material.
- As has been pointed out, selling assets when you can borrow at ~3% is a tough argument. Part of the economic support is that the sale will boost our capital markets (ie. down stream effects). With all the other IPO's expected this year, this argument has to be diminished.

I personally think it will be a hard sell to get Genesis away next year though I am biased as I think the Govt should retain 100% ownership of one of the Power co's. Genesis being small and environmentally friendly seems the perfect one to retain.

CJ
17-05-2013, 07:46 AM
Strong balance sheet in 2008? They did leave Government with low Govt debt.

However, that was to be short lived if you looked at the forecasts at the time, the level of debt expected to climb well above current levels.

fungus pudding
17-05-2013, 08:08 AM
A couple of points on SOE sales coming out of the budget:

- I cant remember exact figures but even with the asset sales, assets owned by the government is expect to grow from ~$250B -> $260B. The SOE's are hardly material.
- As has been pointed out, selling assets when you can borrow at ~3% is a tough argument. Part of the economic support is that the sale will boost our capital markets (ie. down stream effects). With all the other IPO's expected this year, this argument has to be diminished.

I personally think it will be a hard sell to get Genesis away next year though I am biased as I think the Govt should retain 100% ownership of one of the Power co's. Genesis being small and environmentally friendly seems the perfect one to retain.

Alternatively govt. could sell 100% of at least one company. That is the only way to bring genuine competition.

POSSUM THE CAT
17-05-2013, 08:21 AM
Banksie if you go to the top of the hill and start to come down. You are not still going up. No matter what university theory says. You are definitely higher than your start point but you are still going down.

fungus pudding
17-05-2013, 08:58 AM
Banksie if you go to the top of the hill and start to come down. You are not still going up. No matter what university theory says. You are definitely higher than your start point but you are still going down.

If I punctuate your post to read what I presume you mean, this is what I get.

"Banksie, if you go to the top of the hill and start to come down you are not still going up, no matter what university theory says. You are definitely higher than your start point but you are still going down."

Now I'm scratching my head trying to work out how, if you start going down, you will be 'definitely higher than your start point'.

Banksie
17-05-2013, 09:03 AM
Banksie if you go to the top of the hill and start to come down. You are not still going up. No matter what university theory says. You are definitely higher than your start point but you are still going down.

4524

Looking at PMI since Nov 2008 - seems like an uptrend to me.

[Edit] well not much of an up - I certainly wouldn't be buying this share - but it is clearly not trending down.

janner
17-05-2013, 06:07 PM
Banksie which article says manufacturing has gone up.

I heard much the same from 1ZB ( or what ever it calls it self these days )..

So it must be true :-)0

elZorro
17-05-2013, 07:46 PM
4524

Looking at PMI since Nov 2008 - seems like an uptrend to me.

[Edit] well not much of an up - I certainly wouldn't be buying this share - but it is clearly not trending down.

BusinessNZ takes the opposite tack of MEA as far as endorsing all the current govt policies, it would be interesting to see their opinion too. That chart you provided has skilfully chopped off the LHS, which would show that in 2007 they had the same sort of numbers that they've now reached. When I say "they" that means the data from the companies associated with the right-leaning BusinessNZ who bothered to fill out the survey in each month. There is no backup to this qualitative data, i.e. the survey size, the error margins. Just because stock levels have been eroded and now new stock is needed for each order that comes in, is not that great a scenario. Getting back to the right sort of area, yes maybe.

iceman
18-05-2013, 09:18 AM
Here is an interesting opinion EZ http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8687995/NZ-heading-towards-rock-star-status

elZorro
18-05-2013, 10:04 AM
Here is an interesting opinion EZ http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8687995/NZ-heading-towards-rock-star-status

Yes, that's interesting. That Cameron Bagrie is doing a tour around NZ with that spiel, was in Cambridge recently with the same good news, and that the really good developments in NZ's economy appear to have occurred in the last 3-4 years, i.e. since National got back in. I'm just taking a punt here, that Cameron votes National, and is doing his bit to put a bit of spin on the results achieved so far.

POSSUM THE CAT
18-05-2013, 10:29 AM
elZorro or is he after a safe national seat at the next election. My regard & opinion of Cameron Bagrie has gone down rapidly since the last election. In my opinion he has become very biased.

elZorro
18-05-2013, 11:29 AM
elZorro or is he after a safe national seat at the next election. My regard & opinion of Cameron Bagrie has gone down rapidly since the last election. In my opinion he has become very biased.

Maybe he's been biased for quite a while.

http://www.epmu.org.nz/news/show/59302

slimwin
18-05-2013, 11:47 AM
Not that I agree with CB, but the Empu is one of the most biassed outfits around. I, and others I work with left when they donated our union fees to labour for their campaign two elections ago. Disgraceful.

elZorro
18-05-2013, 12:00 PM
Not that I agree with CB, but the EPMU is one of the most biassed outfits around. I, and others I work with left when they donated our union fees to Labour for their campaign two elections ago. Disgraceful.

Surely not all the fees, just some? Wouldn't that be a pretty reasonable place to send some funds on behalf of a large group of employees?

Here's another columnist who is more openly supporting National - Fran O'Sullivan.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10884375

One of the comments down below from Scotty:


I doubt Australian companies even noticed that National might meet their notional target of' budget surplus'. Its meaningless, a slogan that will be repeated endlessly by Key and O Sullivan in the run up to the election.
National , Act and the business elite are deluded if they think borrowing $300mil a week to carry on as usual is a winning strategy.

iceman
18-05-2013, 04:31 PM
Not that I agree with CB, but the Empu is one of the most biassed outfits around. I, and others I work with left when they donated our union fees to labour for their campaign two elections ago. Disgraceful.

My wife pays her fees to the teacher's union and a large amount of that goes to Labour. She never gets asked if that's what she wants to do with the Union funds. Maybe you think it is "reasonable place to send employees funds" EZ, but why not let the union members have a say where they want their money spent !

iceman
18-05-2013, 04:41 PM
Good old socialists eh http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10884504

Argentina is not far behind !

westerly
18-05-2013, 05:53 PM
elZorro or is he after a safe national seat at the next election. My regard & opinion of Cameron Bagrie has gone down rapidly since the last election. In my opinion he has become very biased.

Why would anyone pay much attention to an economist working for an aussie bank? His only interest must be to further the banks profits.
Whether the interests of the people of NZ coincide with the quest for more profit for the bank is open to debate.
Westerly

elZorro
19-05-2013, 07:14 AM
My wife pays her fees to the teacher's union and a large amount of that goes to Labour. She never gets asked if that's what she wants to do with the Union funds. Maybe you think it is "reasonable place to send employees funds" EZ, but why not let the union members have a say where they want their money spent !

If all unions combined only manage to donate $120,000 to the Labour party a year, by my reckoning that would be well under 10c per worker per year. There would be some supporters of National who could donate a fair chunk of that amount without even blinking. The difference might be that workers on PAYE have already certainly paid at least 20% of all their main income to the govt.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10779910

Perhaps I should disclose that because I feel the Labour Party is on the right track for NZ in general, I donate small amount each month. Amongst all my other expenses, it's negligible.

craic
19-05-2013, 10:35 AM
Just some Sunday Humour. An old boss, head of a local Govt office (Justice Dept., was very anally inclined and when he heard that Caxtons, or whoever supplied toilet paper to Depts., were about to have a strike, he immediately ordered a vast quantity of toilet paper. He got his full quota and for a couple of years every space in the office was packed with boxes of the stuff. The strike didn't happen but an earlier boss was even worse. He was freaked by a petrol drivers strike in Wellington so decided on a trip to inspect the provinces. He took a departmental utility with two forty-four gallon drums on the back to fill up here in Hawkes Bay. When I met him with his roughly four-hundred litres of petrol, I was able to tell him that the strike was over. The moral is, vote for National and you will never have to worry about toilet paper or petrol again.

BIRMANBOY
19-05-2013, 01:26 PM
You've never been to India obviously.
Well, well - that's a new one - a run on toilet paper.

iceman
19-05-2013, 02:59 PM
If all unions combined only manage to donate $120,000 to the Labour party a year, by my reckoning that would be well under 10c per worker per year. There would be some supporters of National who could donate a fair chunk of that amount without even blinking. The difference might be that workers on PAYE have already certainly paid at least 20% of all their main income to the govt.

[URL]http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10779910[/URL

Are we meant to have faith in the numbers Labour provide ? Last week they were found to have "forgotten" to disclose several hundred thousand dollars from an estate and their Leader forgot he had a large amount of money in an overseas bank account ! Yea right !

elZorro
19-05-2013, 10:01 PM
Are we meant to have faith in the numbers Labour provide ? Last week they were found to have "forgotten" to disclose several hundred thousand dollars from an estate and their Leader forgot he had a large amount of money in an overseas bank account ! Yea right !

That money was from the estate of Brian Dalley, $430,000. He was a property investor. Who obviously liked Labour's policies. Even with this generous one-off gift, National still headed off Labour for funds donated last year ($775,000 compared to about $700,000). Both parties usually receive more money in election years. But in perspective, this is all small beer for 4.5mill inhabitants.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/8657548/Books-thrown-open-on-party-donations

slimwin
19-05-2013, 11:52 PM
Sorry for late reply. In Hanoi for ho chi minhs birthday celebration(ok,i just happened to be here). Why should any worker give any money to a party they do not support? Labour used to be the party of the workers but is more the party of those that choose not to work.

iceman
20-05-2013, 07:08 AM
That money was from the estate of Brian Dalley, $430,000. He was a property investor. Who obviously liked Labour's policies. Even with this generous one-off gift, National still headed off Labour for funds donated last year ($775,000 compared to about $700,000). Both parties usually receive more money in election years. But in perspective, this is all small beer for 4.5mill inhabitants.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/8657548/Books-thrown-open-on-party-donations

I think is commendable that Brian Dalley did this. After all it was his money that he made himself and he decided how he wanted it spent after his death. The point I was making was about very the significant and serious non disclosures from Labour.

elZorro
20-05-2013, 07:43 PM
I think is commendable that Brian Dalley did this. After all it was his money that he made himself and he decided how he wanted it spent after his death. The point I was making was about very the significant and serious non disclosures from Labour.

Fair enough, it's hard to tell if it was oversight or misunderstanding of the new rules, or a stalling tactic to disclose. In any case Labour seem to be getting everything tidied up well before the election.

National is doing some sorting out as well. John Campbell grilled Mr Brownlee and the EQC CEO tonight, about the gaps in progress in Christchurch home repairs. A lot of people looked to be under severe pressure, I'm not sure they'll get too many votes there.

National recently passed a new bill under urgency, the result of a court case that found families are entitled to be paid for the care of their relatives, alongside external carers. National found a way to herald that in the budget, even though they watered down the court findings.

Parents are not going to be paid to look after their own disabled children, until they are adults, they will then be paid less than an external carer by the look of it, and they are not to be paid to look after a spouse. National also played a mean trick in that they added a clause stopping any court claim to test the new law under the Bill of Rights. The Waikato Times editor noted that:

"The public has been ill-served by each Government MP whose vote pushed the bill through all stages of law-making in one shameful day."

A law professor provides the scary details in his blog (http://pundit.co.nz/content/i-think-national-just-broke-our-constitution).

craic
20-05-2013, 09:25 PM
Maybe some of us feel that it a fair responsibility for families to look after their own with maybe a bit of help. It isn't a bloody job!

iceman
21-05-2013, 05:10 AM
Maybe some of us feel that it a fair responsibility for families to look after their own with maybe a bit of help. It isn't a bloody job!

I most certainly think so with the latest ideas about providing free breakfasts in schools, without any evidence that it actually fixes anything where it has been tried. It is families' responsibility to feed their children, not Governments. Cullen brought out Working For Families a few years back redistributing money to make life easier for lower and middle income families. And now we have this breakfast idea. What next, Government provided lunches ?
It reminds me of the TV3 article on Budget day when they were talking about how little the Budget provided for child poverty, so they talked to a young Mum (early 30s I guess) with 6 children and pregnant with twins, about how difficult life is. I think I the viewer was supposed to feel sorry for her !

elZorro
21-05-2013, 06:24 AM
Iceman, I thought WFF was mostly an attempt to ensure lower and middle income families didn't remain worse off than they had been. Some chose to amend their income accounting to apply for the funds, but surely most of it went to the correct people. There will always be individual cases that seem less worthy of support, but if we spent time as a nation looking at all of them, nothing would ever get done. As my brother-in-law was saying the other day, food in schools is just one example where the govt should just ensure there is a breakfast available (the basic type provided during school camps), and we'll worry about the semantics later.

Because if we don't do this, we'll be picking up the costs for inadequate learning and training for decades afterwards. If a breakfast was provided to those who needed it, would school absenteeism improve?

Colin James provides another (leftie?) overview.


Colin James's Otago Daily Times column for 21 May 2013

Was that a budget for the short or the long term?

There are two time measures of a budget: what it does now and what it sets up for the longer-term. How did Bill English do last week?

Short-term -- the next five years -- he has set up a track out of fiscal deficits and into rising surpluses. Labour's David Cunliffe on Friday detailed a list of nifty accounting manoeuvres that generate the microscopic 2014-15 surplus but that does not deny the trend. Labour's David Parker on Friday reaffirmed Labour's commitment to a 2014-15 surplus.

That 2014-15 surplus comes after a whopping 7 per cent of GDP has gone to tide over and fix Christchurch. No other developed-economy treasurer has had to deal with anything remotely that big on top of the global financial crisis (GFC).

The earthquakes and GFC -- which, added to a drought, gave us five quarters of economic (and so tax revenue) contraction in 2008-09 -- underscores the value of a fiscal buffer. Had Michael Cullen not squirrelled some of his surpluses into the superannuation fund (English wanted tax cuts instead), English would have been mired in "austerity" with the British, American and many European treasurers.

Even with that buffer, English has had five deficit budgets. (Also, Cullen loosened spending from 2005.) And to get his surpluses, over the next five years the fiscal impact on the economy will be contractionary -- that is, the government will hurt more than it will help.

And that says nothing about the other, more dangerous, deficit, to which Parker and Russel Norman pointed in speeches and on TV3's The Nation last week: the huge deficit between the country's income from the rest of the world and payments to the rest of the world.

As that current account deficit climbs back over 6 per cent of GDP, the risk will grow that foreigners ramp up the cost of funding this imprudent behaviour. That could get nasty.

As Parker and Norman point out, the trend is exactly the opposite of what English declared in 2009 his policies were going to deliver -- by contrast, he said, with Cullen, who rode the current account deficit up over 9 per cent. English said he was going to rebalance the economy to be less driven by domestic activity ("non-tradables') and more by export of goods and services ("tradables") and investment income earned abroad.

The 2013 budget's direct contribution to fixing this is to reduce the government's share of the economy so that, in theory, enterprising "tradables" businesses can be more competitive.

A contribution the budget did not make was to change taxes to lift private saving and encourage it out of non-productive house investment (still the favourite). Renting out houses is in effect taxed less than other investments, as Bank of New Zealand CEO Andrew Thorburn has pointed out, because income from the capital gain is not taxed.

The 2013 budget assumes rocketing house prices are due mainly to a lack of new houses. So ministers are legislating to force councils to free up land real fast.

But bigger challenges loom. These will be flagged again by the Treasury in the long-term fiscal forecasts out to 2060 it will publish in July. As the baby boomers age, leave the workforce and demand pensions in much larger numbers and get ill over a longer lifespan than their forebears, they will write a large bill for the country.

Paying that bill will require some mix of rationing, cuts, higher taxes or higher personal payments.

Because it is slow-burning there is time to adjust. The lesson from the past decade is to err on the side of prudence.

At one level English's 2013 budget passes the test. He focused on getting net government debt down below 20 per cent of GDP. That gives room for temporary deficit funding to ride out future global and natural shocks. It also gives headroom to ease into the adjustment to oldies' higher financial and health needs and/or buy time till productivity-improving health technologies and/or different palliative and care techniques are devised and applied.

English has also backed the Treasury's more thorough work on the long-term fiscal forecasts than previous such exercises. Also, he wants it to adopt an upfront "investment" approach to some spending.

But in two other ways, the 2013 budget falls short on the long view.

When a future fiscal challenge can be roughly calculated prudence says start early and spread the adjustment over time. There is little sign of that in the 2013 budget in health services and zero sign of it in superannuation because John Key insists nothing needs doing till next decade, when he is safely in retirement from politics. Labour has committed to (timidly) raise the pension qualifying age.

The other long-term challenge to fiscal policy is early action to avert an external accounts crunch and lower the savings deficit it represents. On that English had little to say last Thursday beyond hand-wringing, council-bashing and faith in deregulation and a smaller state.

Meantime, buy a house -- or two. A house is "safe as houses". Or is it?




--
Colin James, Synapsis Ltd, P O Box 9494, Wellington 6141
Ph (64)-4-384 7030, Mobile (64)-21-438 434, Fax (64)-4-384 9175
Webpage http://www.ColinJames.co.nz

iceman
21-05-2013, 06:37 AM
Iceman, I thought WFF was mostly an attempt to ensure lower and middle income families didn't remain worse off than they had been. Some chose to amend their income accounting to apply for the funds, but surely most of it went to the correct people. There will always be individual cases that seem less worthy of support, but if we spent time as a nation looking at all of them, nothing would ever get done. As my brother-in-law was saying the other day, food in schools is just one example where the govt should just ensure there is a breakfast available (the basic type provided during school camps), and we'll worry about the semantics later.

Because if we don't do this, we'll be picking up the costs for inadequate learning and training for decades afterwards. If a breakfast was provided to those who needed it, would school absenteeism improve?

Colin James provides another (leftie?) overview.

[SIZE=+1][COLOR=#000000]

I completely disagree EZ. I don't think it is Government's responsibility to feed kids at school. Neither does my wife who is a primary school teacher and she actually fears it will interfere greatly with educating the kids, which is what they should be doing at school. We should not forget either that lower decile schools already have free fruit for the kids so no need for them to be hungry at school.
The evidence simply is not there to support any benefit from such a scheme. Here is a good article with lots of references about it http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/breakfast-schools-it-just-doesnt-work-ck-140329

elZorro
21-05-2013, 08:18 AM
I completely disagree EZ. I don't think it is Government's responsibility to feed kids at school. Neither does my wife who is a primary school teacher and she actually fears it will interfere greatly with educating the kids, which is what they should be doing at school. We should not forget either that lower decile schools already have free fruit for the kids so no need for them to be hungry at school.
The evidence simply is not there to support any benefit from such a scheme. Here is a good article with lots of references about it http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/breakfast-schools-it-just-doesnt-work-ck-140329

Thanks for that. Putting aside the anomaly of the NBR publishing an article on school breakfast programmes (it's not going to be a positive one is it?) the research has been done. As in many research areas, there are some shockingly designed trials, and the young economist Eric Clapton certainly found some of them. There was a point that was made about the social stigma of getting a free breakfast. I always remember the loud cries of "scrounger" if anyone walked near a rubbish bin and had a look inside for bottles etc, at school. So uptake in many trials is not good, that just shows that some care has to be put into the way the idea is presented. There was one trial where a really significant improvement in maths skills was an outcome between control and participation groups. Nutrition is generally better too. Most schools in NZ won't need a program like this, but later on in life, similar intervention and assistance pays huge dividends.

Have a look at this website from Otorohanga, where employers and local bodies have banded together with a little bit of sponsorship and foresight, to greatly improve the odds of work-based training and employment in their area.

http://www.otorohanga.co.nz/youth-programmes.html

elZorro
22-05-2013, 06:33 AM
I don't know how they've managed it, but apparently Solid Energy has no net assets now. If National is true to form, parts of it will be sold off for a pittance, and this will be the making of a few new millionaires at the nation's expense. From NZResources.


PM warns of grim picture for Solid Energy22 May 2013
Prime Minister John Key sees the State-owned coal miner Solid Energy as being on a financial tightrope after some bleak figures were detailed by Treasury.
The documents included correspondence to Government in which former Solid Energy chairman John Palmer had warned that the country needed to “urgently” exploit its natural resources or risk the world adapting to the end of non-renewable sources of energy.
Treasury released more documents on Solid Energy, which may now be near the brink of collapse because of too much debt, failed projects and falling coal prices.
The Press newspaper said yesterday that Government and Treasury have been stalling the release of the documents for months, refusing Official Information Act requests.
John Key was reported in the New Zealand Herald yesterday as saying Solid Energy's future appears bleak according to a recently completed report on the company.
A report by corporate advisers KordaMentha said the company was on the brink of collapse after being crippled by low coal prices and almost $400 million in debts.
“They would indicate that some parts of the business are in better shape than others” Key said.
“So in totality it's probably got no equity left and significant debts but that doesn't mean there aren't some parts of it that are potentially genuine businesses. The question is how the Government can take the next step.”
The Prime Minister said many options were on the table but none of them were “terribly palatable.”
The NZ Herald said the PM indicated State Owned Enterprises Minister Tony Ryall and Finance Minister Bill English may have "clarity" about the next steps within a month.
On top of large sackings early this year Solid Energy announced earlier this month than another 100 job would go, and under question is the future of the company’s headquarters in Christchurch.
Solid Energy chairman Mark Forward has been quoted as saying he has total confidence the company’s revamped business plan would be acceptable to the Government and the banks.
Sources: press.co.nz and nzherald.co.nz

iceman
22-05-2013, 10:32 AM
I don't know how they've managed it, but apparently Solid Energy has no net assets now. If National is true to form, parts of it will be sold off for a pittance, and this will be the making of a few new millionaires at the nation's expense. From NZResources.

As can be seen below, it would be unfair to blame just the National lead Government for this fiasco. It started under Labour with both the major appointments (Elder & Palmer) and festered and grew until very recently.

2000 - Don Elder appointed CEO

2003 - Buys wood pellet business Nature's Flame - a move towards renewable energy

2004 - Begins looking at coal seam gas (a form of natural gas)

2005 - Buys land in Southland for lignite development

2006 - Begins to investigate coal to liquid conversion and underground coal gasification

2007 - John Palmer appointed board chairman. Research into lignite upgrading begins. Renewable business expands into biodiesel
Ad Feedback

2008 - Report value jumps from $475 million in 2007 to $2.954 billion in 2008

2009 - Global financial crisis sees step drop in coal prices. Starts borrowing to fund growth

2010 - Construction of lignite plant. Investigations into coal to fertiliser transition begin

May 2011 - Government announces plans for sale of SOEs

October 2011 - Scoping study of Solid Energy raises concerns about coal pricing assumptions and strategic direction

December 2011 - Solid Energy confirmed as part of the SOE sell-off

February 2012 - First half result shows strong financial performance but acknowledges weakening market and falling prices. Solid Energy response to scoping study deemed insufficient and Treasury commissions Deutsche Bank to do a further review

March 2012 - Announces intention to buy Pike River assets

May 2012 - Government ministers meet with Palmer and deputy chairman John Fletcher to Solid Energy's response to the scoping study

June 2012 - Solid Energy put under intensive monitoring. Palmer announces intention to leave early as chairman

July 2012 - Pike River buy-up complete

August 2012 - Revised business plan presented, still insufficient. Ministers meet with John Palmer. Initial restructuring proposal is announced - including cut backs at Spring Creek mine and Huntly East mine and corporate downsizing. Annual result for 2011/12 reveals net loss of $40.2m. Palmer resigns

September 2012 - Restructuring confirmed. Mark Ford appointed chair

October 2012 - Spring Creek mine confirmed as being place in care and maintenance

November 2012 - Several board members resign. Agribusiness component of Biodiesel New Zealand sold. PWC appointed to get clear picture of company's financial position

December 2012 - Neville Sneddon and Pip Dunphy appointed to board

January 2013 - Workers at Stockton Mine agree to reduced hours and pay

February 2013 - Announced Elder has resigned. Half year results show debt has risen $389m

elZorro
23-05-2013, 06:42 AM
Thanks for the details Iceman, but they also point out that Solid Energy was well poised before the GFC, and seemed to need four years after 2008 to respond to a drastically lower coal price. Would Labour have let them drift on with their grand plans like that?

Local councils are starting to take on a Red tinge before the next election. I'm happy to see Hamilton City Council is one of them.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/small-business/news/article.cfm?c_id=85&objectid=10885364

slimwin
23-05-2013, 01:50 PM
Yes,probably.

craic
23-05-2013, 04:13 PM
Hope springs eternal ELZ but events in London in the past day have dealt a significant blow to the liberal left.

iceman
23-05-2013, 04:33 PM
Hope springs eternal ELZ but events in London in the past day have dealt a significant blow to the liberal left.
And riots in Stockholm for last week or so by an immigrant community (yes they happen to be Muslim) that are apparently not happy living in free and peaceful Sweden. I don't know why they are there then. A bit like this murdered in London who said, with a British accent, "this is also happening in our land" talking about Nigeria/Africa, where his forefathers/mothers came from !

slimwin
23-05-2013, 06:31 PM
Theres a couple of million of them in Sweden. Mostly a peaceful lot. But of course, when you allow mass immigration then integration never occurs. Just ask Maori!
On a positive they now have kebab pizzas in Sweden which are to die for.

elZorro
23-05-2013, 08:24 PM
Iceman, papers released yesterday show that John Key has been guilty of spin-doctoring, or worse.



Key’s $1b Solid Energy request in doubt
Newly released papers raise fresh questions over Prime Minister John Key’s claim that Solid Energy asked for $1 billion of taxpayers’ money to fund its transformation into a massive resources company.
Key made the claim earlier this year when it was revealed the state-owned coal miner was on the verge of collapse under the weight of almost $400 million in debt. …
Solid Energy’s business proposal said the Government’s willingness to forgo dividends from Solid Energy and Kupe were essential for the project to proceed, and it would require extra equity of up to $1 billion on top of that to fund the expansion.
However, it did not seek that from the Government in the proposals, saying: “All this can be achieved … without requiring a direct Government equity contribution (other than forgoing dividends from Solid Energy and Kupe for up to 5-10 years).”
This is not just a case of a momentary “brain fade” from Key. He made the claim repeatedly, tried to justify it, but the claim is not true. Once again, John Key has been caught in a lie.

iceman
23-05-2013, 08:25 PM
Absolutely correct slimwin. Sadly for every extreme action like the London/Stockholm ones we are seeing now, you will get a "response" from the nutters on the other side, one way or another. Racial tension is very real all over Europe now and quite scary.

slimwin
24-05-2013, 12:39 PM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10885841

I, for one, pulled out when the greens and labour threw their ankle tap so they must bear some responsiblity for this. I know of others that did too.

elZorro
27-05-2013, 06:38 AM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10886148

The current oldies in NZ (the ones who benefited from booming house prices) need to have a good look inside themsleves come next election ...

I think a lot of us are lucky that interest rates are very low at the moment, Belgarion.

The latest polls are showing National on about 47-49%, still good, but trending down.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/budget-trumps-gilmore-govt-stays-ahead-polls-ck-140645

David Shearer was just on TV, I saw a well poised Leader, he got the simple messages across, even to the last words. Smiled all the way through, no problem.

54% of people like the new power pricing policy from Labour/Greens. David Shearer was at pains to point out that they might not need the Greens after the election, if they get enough votes. Probably didn't want to scare votes off. It's probably true that Labour will be hoping the Greens run a stable run for office, not too much hard left policy that National can pick up on.

Have a look at the trending poll data: an increasing portion of the public (40%) think John Key talks down to people. He's got his own problems leading up to 2014.

http://www.reidresearch.co.nz/TV3+POLL+RESULTS.html

craic
27-05-2013, 08:13 AM
LZ, thats the greatest heap of wishful thinking I have seen in a long time. I don't take too much notice of polls but the stuff I saw on last nights news clearly stated that National had recovered from a recent glitch and were now in a state where they could govern alone on the figures. The Greens were down a fair amount. The performance from David Shearer was as underwhelming as usual. the prospect of a Labour led Government is slipping away with news from our Western Island that many Kiwis are coming home and dissolusionment is setting in over there. Their Labour Govt., is heading for a train crash and in the UK I would suggest that a major move to the right is happening before your very eyes. I, and my family, here and in the UK, are insulated from any mess that may occur, but that is entirely through our own efforts so any changes in power have little effect.

Major von Tempsky
27-05-2013, 08:23 PM
Yeah EZ, watch your TV news from time to time.
"The latest polls are showing National on about 47-49%, still good, but trending down."
Take out the spin and look at the news and its 49% and both Labour and Green and Shearer took sizable hits.

Who are Reid Research?

Oh, I geddit. Any tuppenny obscure outfit that comes up with a "result" you like better is quoted approvingly and all other polls are suppressed.

elZorro
28-05-2013, 06:02 AM
Yeah EZ, watch your TV news from time to time.
"The latest polls are showing National on about 47-49%, still good, but trending down."
Take out the spin and look at the news and its 49% and both Labour and Green and Shearer took sizable hits.

Who are Reid Research?

Oh, I geddit. Any tuppenny obscure outfit that comes up with a "result" you like better is quoted approvingly and all other polls are suppressed.

There were two poll results of 1,000 people, one had National at 49%, one at 47%. The error is about +-3%.

Colin James has some powerful observations today.


Colin James's Otago Daily Times column for 28 May 2013


Lining up Greens for a role in the cabinet


Two years ago at its Queen's Birthday weekend conference the Green party agonised over whether to go into the government if asked. There will be no such agony this coming weekend -- at least not at the leaders level.

Metiria Turei and Russel Norman are clear: if their side of politics gets the numbers in the next election they will be in a Labour-Green cabinet, provided only that they do not have so few MPs they lack real influence.

This weekend they will promote a "fit to govern" strategy, then roadshow it round the branches and settle it at an end-of-year hui -- with the usual grassroots accountability.

Two years ago the Greens debated whether to downscale their position on backing a National-led government from "extremely" unlikely to "highly" unlikely. They did downscale, partly because the 2008 memorandum of understanding (MOU) with John Key had worked well on insulating houses and five smaller initiatives. But this term they could not find enough common ground to extend the MOU.

Since then the Greens' anti-National rhetoric has got shriller. They and Labour have several times lined up, notably on housing, the manufacturing "crisis", the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) fiasco, the convention-centre-for-gambling-licences deal and state-owned enterprise selldowns -- plus a high-profile joint launch of a policy to buy all the electricity off the generators to cut the cost to consumers.

In this way a two-party coalition-in-waiting is growing organically. Occasionally, Winston Peters joins. His public comments are more often nearer the Labour-Greens' line than National's.

In 2011, given John Key's stratospheric popularity and Labour's hangover after nine years in office, voters did not perceive an alternative government. They spread their votes. Now a Labour-Greens alternative government is becoming visible. That is not to say voters will go for it. But there will likely be a serious contest of personalities, policies and ideas.

But this contest is not just across the divide, against National and its ragtag lot. It is within the coalition-in-waiting.

National does not have an own-side contest. The Maori party is buy-able with small beer. John Banks and Peter Dunne are in Parliament only because National dealt them in and that would likely apply if National reached out for Colin Craig. (Hence National's anti-democratic self-interest in blocking MMP reform.)

On the Labour-Greens side there is one big point of agreement: that the economic policy orthodoxies of the past 30 years have frayed and root-and-branch rethinking is needed. They agree also on greater weighting to environmental and biodiversity issues in the context of economic and other development and on the state doing more for the less-well-off.

But there are also large differences.

The biggest is that the Greens see themselves as a vanguard to a different way of living and see Labour as essentially adjusting the orthodox. For example, Greens say, to the extent Labour subscribes to "environmental economics" that is still GDP-based thinking -- producing and consuming more. The Greens' "ecological economics" centres on maintaining stocks of resources and biodiversity, both, they say, under threat.

The Greens' logic is that eventually voters will see they are the way, the light and the truth, as voters in the 1930s Depression came to adopt Labour's social democracy.

But Labour, like National, knows most voters, at least for now, don't subscribe to that way-light-truth and have an atavistic desire for more things, including more fossil fuels.

So, while Labour is ramping up its environmental positioning in a series of seminars got up by Maryan Street (who on Saturday promised to repeal Amy Adams' big resource management changes), it is promising a nicer "more", not fundamental change. Labour can be innovative -- Davids Parker and Cunliffe have been searching out old and new ideas to supplement market-think -- but not revolutionary.

There are many lower-level differences. The Greens are economic nationalists (so is Winston Peters) and Labour (mostly) backs free trade. Norman wants quantitative easing and backs Reserve Bank funding of the state. Labour thinks that won't work here. The Greens are far more peace-oriented and took a harder line on the GCSB.

There is also electoral tension. The Greens want more than their current 14 seats in 2014, to get more leverage; Labour wants them back to 10 seats or so -- but not so low they risk a sub-5 per cent vote in 2017.

The Greens well know the withering cost of compromise to every small government-support party since 1996. But they also know they have to get their hands dirty in government if they are to bring a wider span of voters to their way-light-truth. And they are bigger and much deeper-rooted than previous support parties.

So this weekend they start a new phase in the 40 years of green national politics since 1972. There hasn't been anything vaguely like it since 1931.




--
Colin James, Synapsis Ltd, P O Box 9494, Wellington 6141
Ph (64)-4-384 7030, Mobile (64)-21-438 434, Fax (64)-4-384 9175
Webpage http://www.ColinJames.co.nz

elZorro
28-05-2013, 09:01 PM
National gets a lot a mileage from providing a small amount of assistance to the Food in Schools programme. Again, just a few $million. One of my right-voting colleagues was wondering why all schools couldn't access it, and why National were doing this at all. Five years into office, they finally join the programme, hmm, I wonder.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/8724642/Govt-rolls-out-expanded-food-in-schools

TV3 had a clip of this programme running in a school, only a few takers at 8.00 before school, not a lot of cost involved, you had to feel for those kids who needed the meal. John Key was then asked what could be done to ensure all kids were well fed at home, and he rambled on about 50% of those on the dole not asking for extra handouts, so it was possible to budget.

Here's the real answer he needed to admit: on the whole, if their parent(s) had a decent paying job, there would be no issue.

Newsflash - more manufacturing jobs would be handy for the people in this demographic.

iceman
28-05-2013, 09:53 PM
Here's the real answer he needed to admit: on the whole, if their parent(s) had a decent paying job, there would be no issue.


What load of rubbish. The people not feeding their kids do so because the are useless and irresponsible parents, it is not that they can't afford to give their kids Weetbix in the morning. This silly notion about Government having responsibility to feed children at school will not change anything and is the wrong response to the problem of irresponsible idiots having children that they don't want to provide for

elZorro
29-05-2013, 06:30 AM
I did qualify it, I said "on the whole", Iceman.

Anyway, for whatever reason, those kids are there, and at some expense to taxpayers, they have a right to a quality free education until they're 15. If Sanitarium want to stump up some Weetbix in lieu of income tax, and Fonterra to supply milk in the wake of higher domestic prices (and this supply of goods would in both cases be written off as advertising), then fine. National could almost be accused of electioneering with this stunt, using taxpayers money. Are they doing it for the right reasons?

Hone Harawira's plan is closer to what would be required if a sea-change was to be effected. That requires a bit more commitment.

craic
29-05-2013, 08:03 AM
The problem of unfed kids could be solved tomorrow by the purchase of a couple of dozen cars. Painted across the cars would be Department of Social Welfare - Child welfare Division. Underneath would be Child Nutrition Officer. Families who sent unfed children to school would firstly be asked to explain, then warned and finally, the car would appear at their door as many times as it took. For the very small proportion who genuinely couldn't cope there would be assistance.

Major von Tempsky
29-05-2013, 08:36 AM
Here's all the stuff that EZ spun out. (from msn.co.nz today).
I'm off to Montréal for three and a half weeks today so I'll have to rely on the other posters to keep you honest EZ :-)

"
National's star continues to soar in a new poll that shows it squeezing support from Labour, with voters blaming Labour leader David Shearer's negativity.

A new Fairfax-Ipsos poll, released on Wednesday, puts National up 4.5 points since February to 49.1 per cent support - a result which, on election day, would mean National could govern alone.

At the same time, Labour has slumped 4.4 points to 31.9 per cent.

Respondents said Labour lacks leadership with Mr Shearer at the helm.

"David Shearer has no substance. He just gets a little phrase and repeats it," one respondent said.

"They keep on knocking the other party instead of talking about what they want to do for the country. They need to be positive," said another.

Others were critical of Labour and the Greens' promise of an electricity sector shakeup and Mr Shearer's "brain fade" over a US bank account containing at least $50,000.

However, voters were similarly uncomplimentary of Prime Minister John Key, saying he had a selective memory and was untrustworthy.

Respondents expressed concerns about the government's asset sales, Christchurch school closures and SkyCity pokies deal.

The previous Fairfax-Ipsos poll, released in February, put the parties much closer together, with National on 44.9 per cent and Labour on 36.3.

The latest poll was taken in the days after the budget on May 16, suggesting the public approves of the improving economic mood and Mr Key's handling of the debacle over disgraced MP Aaron Gilmore.

The Greens are steady on 11.2 per cent but other minor parties are rating poorly: NZ First is below the five per cent threshold on 3.2 per cent and the Conservatives are on 1.6 per cent.

United Future, ACT, Mana and the Maori Party barely rated with a combined 2.1 per cent.

On Sunday, a One News-Colmar Brunton poll put National on 49 per cent and Labour on 33 per cent support, while a 3 News-Reid Research poll had National at 47.1 per cent and Labour at 33.1."

elZorro
29-05-2013, 11:24 AM
The problem of unfed kids could be solved tomorrow by the purchase of a couple of dozen cars. Painted across the cars would be Department of Social Welfare - Child welfare Division. Underneath would be Child Nutrition Officer. Families who sent unfed children to school would firstly be asked to explain, then warned and finally, the car would appear at their door as many times as it took. For the very small proportion who genuinely couldn't cope there would be assistance.

Not a bad idea, if the cost of running the car and a staff member to those houses could be justified. Maybe the signs would be magnetic, and IRD could have a go with the same vehicles calling on those who understate their incomes, or who don't pay taxes on time. The fraud office could do the same. In these two cases, maybe it would be worthwhile. But I think you'll find that white collar crimes don't attract the same public wrath, although the amounts involved are a lot higher.

craic
29-05-2013, 12:43 PM
I had thirty years of working with the "low decile" group and visiting homes in unmarked cars for Justice and later corrections. It never ceased to amaze me how people who were "not home" were in the office, reporting, almost before I got back. The food in schools will only serve to increase the numbers who will not provide breakfast "get something when you get to school" will be the advice. I remember the early days of food banks. People were reluctant to be seen using them - but that didn't last. One encouraged another until the queues grew - and many were the hard-nosed ones who were in for anything that was free. Parolees, just released from prison had 72 hours to report to a PO. Usually by that time they had spent their release money on booze or drugs and had been to the food bank and stocked up. I grew up in a level of poverty that is beyond many peoples imagination - there was no social welfare and even less crime.

gv1
30-05-2013, 07:58 AM
I had thirty years of working with the "low decile" group and visiting homes in unmarked cars for Justice and later corrections. It never ceased to amaze me how people who were "not home" were in the office, reporting, almost before I got back. The food in schools will only serve to increase the numbers who will not provide breakfast "get something when you get to school" will be the advice. I remember the early days of food banks. People were reluctant to be seen using them - but that didn't last. One encouraged another until the queues grew - and many were the hard-nosed ones who were in for anything that was free. Parolees, just released from prison had 72 hours to report to a PO. Usually by that time they had spent their release money on booze or drugs and had been to the food bank and stocked up. I grew up in a level of poverty that is beyond many peoples imagination - there was no social welfare and even less crime.

I am with you craig.
The govt should be looking at the root of the problem and addressing them with parents on board.

fungus pudding
30-05-2013, 08:26 AM
I am with you craig.
The govt should be looking at the root of the problem and addressing them with parents on board.


This works.

http://content.radionetwork.co.nz/weekondemand/auckland/41015.mp3

janner
30-05-2013, 07:38 PM
. I grew up in a level of poverty that is beyond many peoples imagination - there was no social welfare and even less crime.

Craic.. We come from a different era.. Those alive today should thank the Lord that they do.. My Mother starved herself to feed me..
I still ended up with RICKETS.. Quite common in those days.... How many cases of RICKETS do we have today.. ????
99% of the people today have never heard of it..

There were many, many, more people worst of than my family..

Today they want to do nothing and have everything !!..

elZorro
31-05-2013, 06:16 AM
I agree with some of this, my kids have not been keen on learning about mowing lawns, gardening, changing tyres, (or even learning to drive) etc, and neither have many of their friends by the sound of it. They'll either pay someone else for that work later on, or I'll have a chuckle to myself when they do start finding out about these skills. Apparently all of the jobs of the future will be within 6 feet of a computer.

But my kids are not part of any long tail, they know their parents will reasonably provide anything they need until they leave home. What it would be like going through the school years with very little food and support for learning, they'll never know.

There was an adult woman on TV the other day, saying that a small amount of food in schools, years ago, made a big change in her life - for once, she got the impression that other people cared.


On another area: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10887198

gv1
31-05-2013, 11:05 AM
This works.

http://content.radionetwork.co.nz/weekondemand/auckland/41015.mp3
Cheers Fungus.
Yeah, Govt took the right to smack your child, now taking the right to feed them..what's next.

elZorro
31-05-2013, 11:13 AM
Cheers Fungus.
Yeah, Govt took the right to smack your child, now taking the right to feed them..what's next.

Must be a nanny state? I thought that was Labour's area?

Speaking of which, should we go back to permitting smoking inside public areas like tearooms and bars? Perhaps these moves by central governments are one of the best legacies they can leave. Credit where credit is due.

fungus pudding
31-05-2013, 12:38 PM
Cheers Fungus.
Yeah, Govt took the right to smack your child, now taking the right to feed them..what's next.

The point is if that Otara school principal can achieve what she did in the lowest decile school, others could too. Think how different those kids will be when they become parents compared to those who just front up for things to be handed to them.

http://content.radionetwork.co.nz/weekondemand/auckland/41015.mp3

elZorro
31-05-2013, 06:43 PM
I'm keeping an eye on Callaghan Innovation. About three or four scientists have been made redundant so far, and there is ominous talk of a lot of the former IRL work being lost to other providers, as it will be up for contest. The ex-IRL staff are all of course employed by Callaghan Innovation, the board of which is also framing the new contest rules.

No worries, there must surely be more funds available for other initiatives. Take the undergraduate funding for science & technology tertiary students, normally used as part of their placements for courses. There are several thousand students looking for good placements each year. The government will fund 200 such positions this year, here is the page to head to for making an application.

http://callaghaninnovation.govt.nz/undergraduate-rd-student-grants

They did say it will have to be a good application, they think it will be oversubscribed. Could be - Fonterra used to take 100 students alone, each year. Funding pool: 1.28 million. About 50c from every taxpayer.

Insights from Patrick Smellie. (http://www.idealog.co.nz/magazine/44/new-finland)

elZorro
02-06-2013, 08:51 AM
Simon Lusk achieved a mention on "The Nation" this morning. Some suspect that he is looking to place more centre right people into the National Party, and some leaked emails show some scary thoughts about this. Including the idea of getting hold of a few million dollars for lobby funds, from an American right-wing think-tank.

Here's a page from his website. http://simonlusk.co.nz/clients/

iceman
03-06-2013, 02:51 PM
Simon Lusk achieved a mention on "The Nation" this morning. Some suspect that he is looking to place more centre right people into the National Party, and some leaked emails show some scary thoughts about this. Including the idea of getting hold of a few million dollars for lobby funds, from an American right-wing think-tank.

Here's a page from his website. http://simonlusk.co.nz/clients/

And the National Party has promptly disassociated itself from him, as it should. Agree with your comment in earlier posts about smoking in bars and public places and admit that I wrongly opposed that rule change a few years back. No question that was a very good move indeed

elZorro
03-06-2013, 04:11 PM
And the National Party has promptly disassociated itself from him, as it should. Agree with your comment in earlier posts about smoking in bars and public places and admit that I wrongly opposed that rule change a few years back. No question that was a very good move indeed

That's very polite of you Iceman. I wanted to be sure of myself, the smoke-fee legislation change for public places was passed in 2003. It was sponsored by two Labour MPs. This amendment was a more rigorous version of a similar smokefree bill originally put forward by..Tukoroirangi Morgan of NZ First, and taken over by Labour.

National is doing the right thing over tax havens, they're asking via IRD to have a look at the hard disk records.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/8745996/IRD-joins-offshore-tax-crackdown

elZorro
05-06-2013, 06:14 AM
The Ngai Tuhoe settlement signing in Parliament was an emotional event yesterday. Under Chris Finlayson, (National), progress has been rapid in the last few years, in settling old grievances under the Treaty. The Crown is working to a target of 2014 for all settlements, and it is halfway there. National has possibly had the benefit of a tail wind from a sea-change in public opinion, and I'd bet that a lot of that was due to NZers reading up on their history, in books like the late Michael King's "The Penguin History of New Zealand". Labour's 9 year term may have helped too, although the seabed policy was divisive in part.

Good to see there is some cross-party understanding here, on the importance of the settlements.

http://www.rotoruadailypost.co.nz/news/tuhoe-sign-treaty-settlement/1893589/

iceman
05-06-2013, 08:44 AM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8755679/OECD-call-for-capital-gains-tax

Shonkey once again shows where his real priorities lie ... Himself and his very rich mates.

Yes shame on him for sticking to what he told us before the elections !

iceman
07-06-2013, 02:45 PM
So will we have a by-election in Ohariau or a snap election ???

fungus pudding
07-06-2013, 02:46 PM
So will we have a by-election in Ohariau or a snap election ???

No need for either.

CJ
07-06-2013, 02:54 PM
So will we have a by-election in Ohariau or a snap election ???
Only resigning as a minister. Still an electorate MP and still giving confidence and supply to National govt.

It does make you wonder what is in those emails. He was losing his job anyway so must be something he wants to hide. Also pretty dumb. If you are going to leak something, at least do it covertly!

iceman
07-06-2013, 02:59 PM
No need for either.

Unless of course it will be proven he has leaked confidential information from the National Security committee. That is criminal.

CJ
07-06-2013, 03:03 PM
Unless of course it will be proven he has leaked confidential information from the National Security committee. That is criminal.Dunne is claiming he isn't the leak. He just doesn't want to hand over the emails.

When doing 'pillow talk' dont do it be email just if case you have to produce them.

neopoleII
07-06-2013, 06:28 PM
just goes to show how tight politics and media are.
politicians are voted in, media is owned by private enterprise,
and together they control what we watch, read, listen to, spend, save, taxed, punished and controlled.

and the sheeples out there havent got a show of getting true information.

sort of like the matrix.

lol

elZorro
08-06-2013, 04:39 PM
Winston Peters claims a scalp there. Brilliant cartoon by Tom Scott today. "Who's next?".

An Aussie journalist has some comments on the price of land in Auckland. Massive tax-free capital gains are being made over time by a few land-bankers.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/auckland-land-bankers-paradise-set-go-weekend-review-nk-141226

elZorro
11-06-2013, 05:46 AM
Colin James on Dunne and the Reserve Bank.


Colin James's Otago Daily Times column for 11 June 2013

Dunne the cameo. Now for Reserve Bank reality

Another sparkling cameo on Friday and the curtain falling on a 30-year political performance, most likely for good. As we blink out of the political theatre into the dull winter daylight the Reserve Bank is grimly waiting.

Back in 1994 Peter Dunne's ambition was to build a centre force. He oscillated between the two big power centres, twice in each side's ministries. But even under MMP voters vote for or against a government (or make a statement against the governments on offer).

In 2011, under the National gerrymander which Judith Collins is determined to maintain, National's Ohariu voters got John Key an add-on seat by voting Dunne in. If he had lost, taking out his one party-vote quota, Labour would have picked up that quota and so an additional seat.

With Dunne out of the way in 2014, Labour-Greens' hopes would rise a small notch. To survive in office, National might need a gerrymander for Colin Craig or a dead-rat-swallow deal with Winston Peters.

That's all entertaining. Back in the dull grey day-to-day the Reserve Bank and real issues lie in wait. Top of the list as the Bank has prepared this Thursday's monetary policy statement have been house prices and the antics of its colleagues in big economies.

As a New Zealand Initiative report by Luke Malpass says, the main driver of higher house prices is that too few houses have been built to meet rising demand and "prices are absorbing the difference". So, Malpass says, free up land on the periphery.

The risk in more sprawl was described by Edward Luce in Saturday's Financial Times: in the United States the well-off are repopulating city centres while in the suburbs the less-and-less-well-off have to travel long distances to decent-paying jobs or settle for subsistence. Parts of Auckland already demonstrate that to some extent, which is partly why the Auckland Council and the government want some cheaper, smaller houses nearer the centre.

Demand is up because the population is bigger, households split up more and speculators and small investors pile in, safe from taxation on their income from capital gain. Houses give a higher return -- yield -- than bonds which are being kept especially low by the Reserve Bank and that in turn is forcing the Bank to use its refashioned "macroprudential" levers to discourage some lending on houses. In the latest ASB Bank investor survey rental property still rated as "the most popular asset class", twice as popular as shares even after the Mighty River float.

This hunt for yield is the issue big-economy central banks are also wrestling with. After those central banks plunged their interest rates close to zero without stimulating "recovery", they went in for "quantitative easing" (QE), that is, creating huge amounts of money which they showered on banks to try to get them lending and businesses borrowing to grow their economies.

At best, those economies have spluttered. The dosh has bought, not general prosperity -- jobs and incomes -- but higher prices for bonds, equities and property, that is, paper wealth. Along with that there has been a global search for yield. Because our interest rates are higher than elsewhere even though very low by our standards, our exchange rate has been driven up as foreign yield-hunters pile in.

The problem for the big-economy central banks, as New Zealand Initiative director Oliver Hartwich argues this week, is how to exit from QE without bringing the house down (so to speak).

The big one to watch is the United States Federal Reserve which has been doling out $US85 billion a month, with the aim of getting unemployment down to 6.5 per cent (it is still 1 per cent above that, despite a falling participation rate). When last month the Reserve began to hint it might stop, sharemarkets and global currency markets got in a tizz.

That tizz reached across to China and the other big "emerging" economies, which have been slowing. Australia has been feeling that through cuts to its commodity export prices. Business confidence there has tanked. That is bad news for this country.

The good news is that our exchange rate has fallen -- from the stratosphere to the troposphere. The bad news in that is tradables inflation will rise, compounding already edgy non-tradables (domestic) inflation.

Too much of that bad news and the Reserve Bank will have to raise its official cash rate, which will be tough on people who have bought houses at too high a price and with too low a deposit. And if mortgage interest eats up money that might be spent on goods and services, that will not be good news for jobs -- though that in turn would be good news for domestic inflation.

In any case, for now the house bubble is not translating into general inflation. So on Thursday the Reserve Bank will almost certainly leave its official cash rate at 2.50 per cent.

But for how long? The answer to that question is a serious matter for everybody. A micro-party leader's misjudgments, by comparison, are light relief.
--
Colin James, Synapsis Ltd, P O Box 9494, Wellington 6141
Ph (64)-4-384 7030, Mobile (64)-21-438 434, Fax (64)-4-384 9175
Webpage http://www.ColinJames.co.nz

neopoleII
11-06-2013, 10:02 AM
""And if mortgage interest eats up money that might be spent on goods and services, that will not be good news for jobs""

whats interesting to note is the tobacco tax that is clawing in over a $billion a year.... this is more than all the divis from all the SOE's combined.
so if interest rates rise by a few basis points that equates to $40 to $50 a month more spend on the average mortgage. on this premise ... cutting the tobacco tax in half could put another 1/2 billion of discretionary spending back into the economy and revitalise the job growth scene.... and save the future pension system from colapse with less retirees reaching pension age.
lol..... its all just politics and cash grabs.
pack of smokes $15 times 7days = $105... price of pack of smokes before ALL tax about $2.
what i want to know is where the tax grab money is going? only a third is for health related issues (stated by treasury papers).

slimwin
11-06-2013, 10:06 AM
It seems the majority of the left think the Dunne witchhunt is both idiotic and hipocritical.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10889595

Of course he still has his seat and has guaranteed his support for the govt. If he gave that up the nats polled 50% party vote in that seat and those guys are unlikely to turn labour after this.

Much ado about nothing as far as politics go. Sacking polis for leaks? There'd be no one left.

iceman
12-06-2013, 03:07 PM
Poor old Mallard must be having midlife crisis. Stormed out of Parliament on Monday and out of a Select Committee meeting today. Time for him to look for a different career, if somebody will have him on their payroll !

elZorro
12-06-2013, 07:05 PM
It's the lead-up to the elections, you can't blame the Labour-Greens for making the most of it.

It has taken a foreign-owned company with strong sales channels to show us what could be done in NZ, if we would just show some faith.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8783835/F-P-seeks-staff-to-beef-up-R-D

craic
12-06-2013, 08:20 PM
Suggest that tis be changed to "When National Win" Is there anyone out there who honestly believes that David Shearer will survive the next election? We see a collection of Labour Party members on news from time all trotting out the negatives. The biggest event they can offer is the possible sexual fantasies of Peter Dunne in relation to an Irish reporter who managed to work around an embargo placed on some information that is of little consequence to anyone. As to the mental gymastics of Winston Peters, now thats entertainment.

iceman
13-06-2013, 06:59 AM
It has taken a foreign-owned company with strong sales channels to show us what could be done in NZ, if we would just show some faith.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8783835/F-P-seeks-staff-to-beef-up-R-D

You sound disappointed about this EZ. I think its a great news story. A large Chinese investor has come and invested in a great NZ company built on "knowhow", but could not really make it on its own in a very competitive World. Haier has done what they said and have kept the R&D in NZ and are now increasing it greatly. This is a good vote of confidence in the NZ economy and the Kiwi workforce by a very large multinational. We should rejoice at such news. Its a shame the Chinese investor in PGW is not of the same caliber !

craic
13-06-2013, 07:35 AM
Yes and my son got a very good job there. By his account it is an excellent employer - not quite as good as Google but good al the same.

elZorro
13-06-2013, 04:41 PM
Yes, I agree with you both, it is great news. It's a pity the govt didn't see that because major profits from a foreign-owned entity won't be showing up in the books here (i.e.income tax payments), it would have been better to look after F&P when they were NZ-owned, a few years back.

Haier has done what they said they'd do. Speaking with someone high up the design tree at F&P, this is a bit of a test. Now the R&D staff have to come up with the goods. So Craic, I hope your son is working hard, and not supping on too many flat whites.. :)

iceman
14-06-2013, 04:49 AM
Hypocrites ! http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10890195

elZorro
14-06-2013, 06:00 AM
Maybe that was a bit of a cunning plan to embarrass Labour, the MPs and Shearer should have known better.

One of the comments from the article:


What is really interesting is Ryall's damnation of his own government as 'suppers from the gambler's cup.' He ought to think more carefully before he opens his trap.

slimwin
14-06-2013, 09:56 AM
Nothing cunning about it. The Labour ministers look like hypocritical idiots over this.

Of course they're not the only politicians that would fall for it..

CJ
14-06-2013, 10:42 AM
Nothing cunning about it. The Labour ministers look like hypocritical idiots over this.

Of course they're not the only politicians that would fall for it..Makes you wonder if SkyCity did it deliberately.

Labour should have just spun a story saying they were there to lobby on problem gambling initiatives etc

iceman
14-06-2013, 11:17 AM
Makes you wonder if SkyCity did it deliberately.

Labour should have just spun a story saying they were there to lobby on problem gambling initiatives etc

Goff tried in vain. He said he only went there to explain to Sky City that Labour was opposed to the Sky City deal. Yeah right !

craic
14-06-2013, 04:08 PM
A cunning plan to embarrass the Labour Party? -there's already a better one in place. It's called The Labour Party.

fungus pudding
14-06-2013, 05:22 PM
A cunning plan to embarrass the Labour Party? -there's already a better one in place. It's called The Labour Party.

I think the association with the Kermit party is the real embarrassment for them. My neighbour is a life time labour supporter but says he will reluctantly vote for National next time cos he hates the Greens slightly more than he hates National. :confused:

slimwin
14-06-2013, 10:13 PM
I suspect there's quite a few people around like that FP. I'll certainly not swing back Labours way if it looks like the greens (or Winston) will be calling the shots. You just never know what concessions they will have to give.

fungus pudding
15-06-2013, 08:01 AM
I suspect there's quite a few people around like that FP. I'll certainly not swing back Labours way if it looks like the greens (or Winston) will be calling the shots. You just never know what concessions they will have to give.

Agreed. I think that a lot of Labour supporters simply won't vote because of the Greens. Not many of them will take the big step and vote National though, even though that's the way to bury the Greens. I reckon next election will be a low turnout.

elZorro
15-06-2013, 08:41 AM
Look, that's five right-wing posts in a row, on a thread started by a leftie, so not bad going..

Has anyone spelt out what would be so bad about the Greens having some say on policy over land and resource use? Yes, it might slow things up a bit, but good commercial operations with enough profit to redress any harm to the environment (maybe even make it better) would still pass. Otherwise we'll keep on allowing marginal coal mines like Pike River to make a hash of things, because the profit motive over-rode common sense. There was no shortage of good gas detection gear they could have used. Sure, DOC could have allowed more ventilation shafts to be put in, that would have helped.

We have vast areas of NZ being used for dairying, profits of $3,500 per hectare/yr right down to losses per hectare in bad years, and sheep/beef doing worse on average (employee density, low). These are the businesses the Greens will "sabotage"? Well, they aren't so crazy that they'd risk major income streams for NZ. They will expect businesses to have enough put aside to redress any issues.

We've been asked at work to design something to help monitor a "bad output". It needed designing, apparently, because the stuff that was around was too expensive. When I looked, there were at least 4-5 NZ manufacturers making something, off the shelf, for about $4000 to $7000. The fine for one potted 'bad output' would swamp those costs, and this is a capital item that should need little maintenance and run for many years. So I wonder what type of business attitude prevails out there, and maybe a stick should be raised sometimes.

slimwin
15-06-2013, 04:42 PM
Actually,I think they are that crazy. The old activist core is essentially still there. Think,print money.

I'd officially like my posts to be classed centrist. They only look right if your sitting waaay out to the left!

And we need five posts to balance your expansive ones EZ!

elZorro
16-06-2013, 08:47 AM
Actually,I think they are that crazy. The old activist core is essentially still there. Think,print money.

I'd officially like my posts to be classed centrist. They only look right if your sitting waaay out to the left!

And we need five posts to balance your expansive ones EZ!

Russel Norman looked very sensible to me, on "The Nation" this morning. Like you, he was not impressed about Labour MPs using Sky's corporate box. Although it sounds like one of their Labour organiser mates from parliament now has a job with Sky, and invited them.

Will keep this post brief, sorry I forgot you were a centrist, Slimwin. :)

slimwin
16-06-2013, 05:21 PM
All good,EZ. I just give up reading half way through if it's too long or a copy paste from a news paper!:t_up:

Oh, and I think most NZ politics is centrist. We just end up arguing how to achieve the same result,ie abolishing poverty.

elZorro
16-06-2013, 05:56 PM
OK, that would be the argument of Keynesian ideas (broad policy) as opposed to, say, tax cuts for the well off (trickle down theory). Here's an article with some American data, showing no correlation over 50 years between top bracket tax cuts and improved working conditions for the average person.

http://www.faireconomy.org/research/TrickleDown.html

Worth a read, this sort of data would have taken many hours to compile. I didn't have a fixed opinion either way, so I use research like that to be better informed. This article implies that in NZ, Labour's policies on taxation are probably more correct.

westerly
16-06-2013, 06:26 PM
[QUOTE=slimwin;412229]Actually,I think they are that crazy. The old activist core is essentially still there. Think,print money QUOTE


Whats wrong with printing money? If you are borrowing money overseas to spend in NZ. Why not allow the Reserve Bank the right to lend money both to the Govt, and privately. Of course the politicians wouldn,t pay it back and the aussie banks would not make such massive profits. Theory seems simple enough to me.though.

Westerly

JBmurc
16-06-2013, 08:34 PM
[QUOTE=slimwin;412229]Actually,I think they are that crazy. The old activist core is essentially still there. Think,print money QUOTE


Whats wrong with printing money? If you are borrowing money overseas to spend in NZ. Why not allow the Reserve Bank the right to lend money both to the Govt, and privately. Of course the politicians wouldn,t pay it back and the aussie banks would not make such massive profits. Theory seems simple enough to me.though.

Westerly

Because Mr Big Aussie Bank wouldn't like that ...create money for free through the fractional banking reserve system ..then get fat yield off the silly peasants .....would be much better if the NZ Central bank make the yield ....

elZorro
17-06-2013, 05:46 PM
Agree, Westerly and JB. Putting a bit of pressure on the currency is part of the findings of the Inquiry into manufacturing. This is the inquiry which was not attended by National.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10891066

All of these ideas look sensible to me, I agree with the findings. The paid jobs in manufacturing numbers tell the story, and it's all bad. Steven Joyce has replied that manufacturing is looking up. By this he means that, when polled, some manufacturers said they were feeling that things were looking up. These would be the manufacturers who were more positive in their previous outlook than most of us, those who bothered replying to a small survey. It's hardly incontrovertible truth. Give us the real numbers, Mr Joyce.

On a day when the giant Mediaworks had to go into receivership to defray debt, Mr Joyce will be thanking his lucky stars that he got out of radio advertising when the going was good. Guess who pays for advertising? Businesses. National has indirectly told us to retrench, so we have cut back on advertising and staff.

John Key was slick as usual on TV3 Tuesday morning. The manufacturing job losses were batted away with the explanation that some industries disappear while new ones emerge.

Rachael Smalley had no further questions. Here's two.


In that case, Mr Key, why is the net amount of manufacturing jobs dropping alarmingly, and what is your govt doing about it?

slimwin
19-06-2013, 11:23 AM
http://mobile.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.php?c_id=3&objectid=10891557

elZorro
19-06-2013, 03:35 PM
http://mobile.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.php?c_id=3&objectid=10891557

Yes, this is a smart move by the Greens. What can John Key pick on now?

iceman
19-06-2013, 04:04 PM
Yes, this is a smart move by the Greens. What can John Key pick on now?

There's plenty to pick from ! Obviously wasn't such a smart move to introduce this silly policy idea in the first place since they've now done a U-turn

craic
19-06-2013, 04:14 PM
He doesn't have to pick on anything - the Greens provide the entertainment at every turn. I see P Horomias old seat has dragged candidates from all parties and a couple of independants. If I was Labour or Maori Party, I would be asking the Greens "why are you trying to take votes away from us when you haven't got a snowball's chance in hell of getting in?" If Labour was to lose this seat, even to the Maori Party, it would be an ominous sign - but I don't think that they will.

fungus pudding
19-06-2013, 05:06 PM
There's plenty to pick from ! Obviously wasn't such a smart move to introduce this silly policy idea in the first place since they've now done a U-turn

According to Russell Norman they dropped it because it just wasn't being accepted by the public, and this shows the Greens listen. That obviously means a lot more announcements dropping all their policies.

elZorro
19-06-2013, 08:41 PM
According to Russell Norman they dropped it because it just wasn't being accepted by the public, and this shows the Greens listen. That obviously means a lot more announcements dropping all their policies.

The Greens don't just listen, they do their research. Here's something they put out yesterday, it's full of undeniable facts.

http://www.greens.org.nz/press-releases/pm-needs-get-his-head-out-sand-and-talk-manufacturers

iceman
20-06-2013, 08:58 AM
I put more faith in the info here http://www.businessnz.org.nz/surveys/506
than I do in political spin from the Greens.
There is no manufacturing crisis in NZ, despite the screams from the Greens. Another policy/issue where they have got it completely wrong

elZorro
20-06-2013, 11:02 AM
A BusinessNZ survey? They're fairly pro-National, so you'd be safe on that website, Iceman.

Maybe these guys were closer to the mark, in 1981.

http://folksong.org.nz/no_depression_in_NZ/

iceman
20-06-2013, 11:08 AM
A BusinessNZ survey? They're fairly pro-National, so you'd be safe on that website, Iceman.

Maybe these guys were closer to the mark, in 1981.

http://folksong.org.nz/no_depression_in_NZ/

Business NZ didn't do the surveys EZ so you may be safe and well informed there as well !

elZorro
21-06-2013, 06:09 AM
Business NZ didn't do the surveys EZ so you may be safe and well informed there as well !

Well, it was just a survey, carried out with a limited budget, on surviving/prospering businesses.

Looking up the links on the "no depression" song, I found Metiria Turei's maiden speech (she sang a version of it). I might not agree with all of the text, but it is thought provoking. She's been increasingly effective on camera as a Green MP, and the Co-Leader.

http://www.greens.org.nz/speeches/maiden-speech-metiria-turei

Don't fear the Greens..http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10891744

Gareth Morgan correctly spots the driver in house prices for Auckland, everybody in for tax-free gains!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10891660

Helen Clark more trusted than John Key.. but all politicians are towards the tail end of the first 100.

http://www.readersdigest.co.nz/new-zealand-most-trusted-people-2013

iceman
22-06-2013, 09:08 AM
Now here is a good idea that I think most of us can agree on http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/bridges-should-back-norway-oil-model-ck-141866

slimwin
22-06-2013, 09:50 AM
And if it drives up our cost of living to Norways level, it would also get rid of all those pesky tourists!

I agree on the idea though. I wonder how a percentage allocated to R&D for "green" energy solutions would go down with the public? Maybe it would mute some of the greens objections.

iceman
22-06-2013, 10:00 AM
And if it drives up our cost of living to Norways level, it would also get rid of all those pesky tourists!

I agree on the idea though. I wonder how a percentage allocated to R&D for "green" energy solutions would go down with the public? Maybe it would mute some of the greens objections.

Not sure if the oil fund is responsible for high cost of living. Think that's more to do with very high level of education & high earning jobs creating high tech products in great demand all around the World. A nice "problem" to have but you are right that Norway is extremely expensive to visit for most people.

slimwin
22-06-2013, 09:18 PM
And a lot of energy used to import what the rest of europe has within a trucking network.

Yep,wouldn't be "our" problem if we are all living in that utopia.

On a side note,did anybody see the seven sharp episode the other night about world refugee day? A point was made that you don't see refugees in NZ on the dole line because they want to get ahead and work. How about upping our refugee quota and cutting our immigrant quota from countries that end up disproportionatly on benefits?

iceman
23-06-2013, 07:39 AM
On a side note,did anybody see the seven sharp episode the other night about world refugee day? A point was made that you don't see refugees in NZ on the dole line because they want to get ahead and work. How about upping our refugee quota and cutting our immigrant quota from countries that end up disproportionatly on benefits?

Didn't see that episode nor others. Can't stand that program. This sounds interesting though. My wife teaches at a primary school where most of the children from the refugee families' go here in Nelson. She often comments how good, tidy, well behaved and keen they are to learn. They always come well fed and with good lunches. We lease one rental property to a refugee family from Bhutan through Refugee Services and charge a fair rent but slightly below what we could get (the socialist in my coming out :ohmy: ) on the market, just to help these people out a little with their start in NZ. They are great trouble free tenants that are very appreciative of how we treat them. This first thing they all ask is whether it is OK to use the extensive gardens to grow vegetables. They don't expect the Government to feed their kids at school ! The parents all want to work and many do work in factories such as Sealords, King Salmon etc where they can make a decent living by working hard., which they do. So based on a little bit of experience with refugees , I would agree with your suggestion completely slimwin.

JBmurc
23-06-2013, 11:15 AM
Russel Norman looked very sensible to me, on "The Nation" this morning. Like you, he was not impressed about Labour MPs using Sky's corporate box. Although it sounds like one of their Labour organiser mates from parliament now has a job with Sky, and invited them.

Will keep this post brief, sorry I forgot you were a centrist, Slimwin. :)

Like when he was protesting against one of are biggest trading partners....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cILQWybsTZg

Paul henry interviewing Norman....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6c5WWqXDpk

Russel Norman pro Q.E(big flipflop of late) -http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGKY7SL3SmA

History on Norman

Norman was born in Brisbane, Australia, and worked a number of unskilled roles after dropping out of medical school. Norman moved to New Zealand in 1997 saying this was to observe the red-green Alliance coalition. He wrote his political science PhD thesis on the Alliance, and was active within the party editing its party newsletter. Whilst living in Australia, Norman was involved with the Socialist Workers' Party (a revolutionary Marxist-Leninist organisation) for several years.[2]





What scares me is this guy as mister of finance under a Labour coalition ....In no time I could image NZ having mass riots...

craic
23-06-2013, 12:21 PM
And you forgot to mention that, at the same time as Norman gets the Labour finance portfolio, Hone will get housing.

slimwin
23-06-2013, 03:31 PM
And I'll become Australian!

iceman
23-06-2013, 04:45 PM
And you forgot to mention that, at the same time as Norman gets the Labour finance portfolio, Hone will get housing.
LOL. Not much left for Winston so suppose he will just settle
for the baubles the office of Foreign Minister and of course
Minister of Racing provide, like last time. Not much left for Labour's
frontbench !

percy
23-06-2013, 05:03 PM
Didn't see that episode nor others. Can't stand that program. This sounds interesting though. My wife teaches at a primary school where most of the children from the refugee families' go here in Nelson. She often comments how good, tidy, well behaved and keen they are to learn. They always come well fed and with good lunches. We lease one rental property to a refugee family from Bhutan through Refugee Services and charge a fair rent but slightly below what we could get (the socialist in my coming out :ohmy: ) on the market, just to help these people out a little with their start in NZ. They are great trouble free tenants that are very appreciative of how we treat them. This first thing they all ask is whether it is OK to use the extensive gardens to grow vegetables. They don't expect the Government to feed their kids at school ! The parents all want to work and many do work in factories such as Sealords, King Salmon etc where they can make a decent living by working hard., which they do. So based on a little bit of experience with refugees , I would agree with your suggestion completely slimwin.

Enjoyed ready this post.
Thank you Iceman.

janner
23-06-2013, 05:53 PM
How about upping our refugee quota and cutting our immigrant quota from countries that end up disproportionatly on benefits?

slimwin. I am aware of our UN refugee quota obligations.. I have to admit that I did not know we have an " Immigration " quota.

Who sets these quota's .. ??.. From which countries do they come from ??. Is there a system in place to alter these quota's ??.

elZorro
24-06-2013, 06:43 AM
Like when he was protesting against one of are biggest trading partners....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cILQWybsTZg

Paul henry interviewing Norman....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6c5WWqXDpk

Russel Norman pro Q.E(big flipflop of late) -http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGKY7SL3SmA

History on Norman

Norman was born in Brisbane, Australia, and worked a number of unskilled roles after dropping out of medical school. Norman moved to New Zealand in 1997 saying this was to observe the red-green Alliance coalition. He wrote his political science PhD thesis on the Alliance, and was active within the party editing its party newsletter. Whilst living in Australia, Norman was involved with the Socialist Workers' Party (a revolutionary Marxist-Leninist organisation) for several years.[2]

What scares me is this guy as mister of finance under a Labour coalition ....In no time I could image NZ having mass riots...

Shearer has ruled Norman out as a finance minister, so no worries there. Maybe he'd get a deputy job of some kind. It's 16 years since Dr Norman was in a socialist party, maybe he's moved on.

More hints that the National govt are about to be hoodwinked by slick SAP etc, salespeople.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8831588/Firms-fear-shift-in-software-buying

slimwin
24-06-2013, 09:09 AM
Just badly worded janner. Not sure what limits are placed on the level of immigrants. Hopefully not just how quick the paperwork is processed!

craic
24-06-2013, 09:45 AM
When I landed illegally in NZ a day or two ago, the police showed some interest until they found that I had not jumped ship, here. They couldn't spell ringbolting so that didn't worry them either. I phoned the immigration Dept, to regularise me presence but was told " you're British and you're entitled to be here so we are not interested in how you got here" My statement, "I'm Irish" was met with "all the same to us." Wouldn't it be a big improvement if they, surreptitiously, re-instituted that policy? English, Irish, Scottish and Welsh appearing all over the place in dairy-shops fish and chip shops etc. They wouldn't have to do anything, just ignore them when they overstay visas or work permits. We might wake up one morning and find that the Queen had been living in Taihape for several months without anyones knowledge and had filed an application to bring Phillip out.

Major von Tempsky
26-06-2013, 09:48 AM
Sounds good to me Craic!

Wonder if EZ and Possum are still alive....
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10893025

POSSUM THE CAT
26-06-2013, 10:38 AM
MVT get your facts right. This cat has never voted for the Labour party in this life. As cats are supposed to have Nine Lives I do not know what may have happened in other lives. And not intending to vote Labour in the next election unless they have dramatic changes in both personal & policies. But the same applies to National as well.

Major von Tempsky
26-06-2013, 12:04 PM
Very happy to stand corrected on that!
That's one less vote for Labour :-)

craic
26-06-2013, 12:11 PM
I think that it's a blind certainty that Labour will have changes in personnel and policies by that time. Problem is that they need a dynamic leader who is not a mad dog as well. If I was directing the process, I would go for a Maori leader and that would have a more dramatic effect. It could, 0f course, backfire and reveal some inherent racism on the voting left.
MVT get your facts right. This cat has never voted for the Labour party in this life. As cats are supposed to have Nine Lives I do not know what may have happened in other lives. And not intending to vote Labour in the next election unless they have dramatic changes in both personal & policies. But the same applies to National as well.

elZorro
26-06-2013, 02:12 PM
Sounds good to me Craic!

Wonder if EZ and Possum are still alive....
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10893025

I was wondering if you guys read the Herald, it must be a right-wing paper then..

None of those polled can have been watching David Shearer getting more confident with each camera appearance. And John Key's policy of "Just Smile and Wave" is working.

However, David Shearer is twice as popular as Winston Peters for PM, and the drop in vote for "other" means Labour is up by 3% more votes than the 2011 result. I still say the Labour-Green policies are much better than National's "do-nothing" policies.

I'm not afraid to say I'll be voting Labour (or the Greens)..

craic
26-06-2013, 02:43 PM
EZ, you must be a magician! It's not bad enough that you can take solace in a poll that even David Shearer cringed at - but to be able to see David Shearer getting more confident with every appearance - now that's pulling a rabbit out of a hat and making a silk purse out of a sows ear - both at the same time. I don't know who I will vote for in the next election. I will be 77 by then and having secured all my bases for myself and my family, I may just sit back and watch - if the tree I'm working at the moment misses it's clear intention to squash me into the ground before then.