NSE - New Standard Energy (Shale in the Canning Super Basin)

[The Big Ease]

Here's everything you'll need to know.

CLICK (http://hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=1664553&msgno=7724522#7724522)
Just keep following the links.


An amazing play unfolding.
up about 10% today.

[Corporate]

Thanks TBE, it is about time we had a NSE specific thread!

[The Big Ease]

I searched for one a few times but couldn't find it, so finally I got around to it.
It has really kicked on in the last 10 days, but if it does trace back into the 30's, even high 30's, then it would present an excellent opportunity for me to top up.
Hopefully my WCL trade comes good and I can plough them into NSE at those sorts of prices.

[The Big Ease]

Well, after a midday pull back, NSE finished up almost 13% for the day on good volume too.

[Rabbi]

I managed to pick up some last week before they took off but without any imminent news they will almost certainly retrace. NSE look to have world class tenements in the Canning. It appears investors are getting in early before they commence this years drilling campaign with Conoco, and with the probability the shales will contain a high ratio of liquids any announcement of a spud will generate huge interest.
They also have 15m share in Buru energy and the deal with Conoco commits Conoco to spend 110m this year on a three well program.
Not to forget they still have 100% interest in Merlinleigh shale in Carnarvon Basin.
Well worth doing some research on this one with plenty of information available on Goldwyer shales.

[The Big Ease]

Rabbi, I thought that 110m was spread out over 4 phases with 20m of it in phase 1. My assumption is that each phase = 1 year.
I believe it goes 20m, 20m, 20m and 40m through phasees 1, 2, 3 and 4.

Conoco have the option to withdraw or proceed after each phase with tehe exception of phase 1 which is binding.

Rabbi, do you think they will be able to undertake all this activity in 12 months? I wouldn't have thought so.

edit: first phase costs could be around 25m.

[Corporate]

TBE, the expenditure is over four years I believe.

Not if this will pull back. I believe finishing on the days high is a good sign.....Drillfix may be able to confirm?

[drillfix]

Not if this will pull back. I believe finishing on the days high is a good sign.....Drillfix may be able to confirm?


Its always a good sign when closing on a high of the day, or certainly bullish anyway.

I know how TBE hates gaps..lol but I am going to say it anyway, that there is one at 40c :P

In instances like this it seems the whole sector is advancing so where things go or when can be anybodies guess. Eventually everything needs a break or do a slight consolidation where by the stocks indicators are allowed to cycle.

Nice moves for NSE though along with the whole sector :)

[Rabbi]

Goldwyer Project: ConocoPhillips Farm-in Program
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Working Interest NSE 25% COP 75% NSE 25% COP 75% NSE 25% COP 75% NSE 25% COP 75%
Indicative Timing 2012 2013 2014 2015
Work program Drilling 3 vertical wells, coring and logging; Completing detailed core lab analysis; Undertaking formation evaluation tests on each well Drilling, logging, coring, stimulating and testing 1 horizontal well; or Drilling 2 additional vertical wells and completing detailed core lab analysis; or Alternative exploration activities of equal or greater value Drilling, logging, coring, stimulating and testing 1 horizontal well; or Drilling 2 additional vertical wells and completing detailed core lab analysis; or Alternative exploration activities of equal or greater value COP is to fund 100% of the cost of a pilot development program; being the drilling, logging, coring, stimulating and flow testing of 2 additional horizontal wells.
Expenditure Cap (COP 100%) US$26m - $28.5m US$20m US$20m US$40m
Excess Expenditure NSE 100% (drilling) NSE 50% (other) NSE 25% NSE 25% NSE 25%
Page 15

TBE: The above from the latest presentation confirms you are correct. I should have checked before posting.

[The Big Ease]

guys, go and read anatol's latest post on hotcopper.
A true masterpiece. It really shows you in great detail exactly why NSE has the best permits in the canning and why the canning is the best basin in Australia.
NSE owns half of the basin, but most of the best bits.

It's just so emphatic. Tui, shrewdy, corporate, soulman, rabbi....all of you, go and read this bloody masterpiece.

[CMo]

re: Anatol... he certainly is a research monster!

He's had a rough old week with some of the abuse he's been copping, but his latest post shows his dedication.

[Rabbi]

Yes, that guy Anatol does some amazing research. He copped a bit of flak when he was somewhat dismissive of BRU and some BRU shareholders took offense. I am also a BRU shareholder but when I read that thread it was so hilarious I nearly fell off my chair laughing. Now the moderator has had to step in and things have quietened down.
If you have an hour to spare it's well worth reading Anatol's in depth research of the Canning Basin and there are plenty of nice maps to guide you along.
A big thanks to TBE for collating Anatol's research into one thread. :t_up:

[The Big Ease]

hey no probs.
anatol researches the way I think research should be done, but too lazy to do so myself!
He is very thorough. I went through and read all of those documents he linked to and then some.

Everything about NSE just screams out at you. If I didn't think NWE had some equally brilliant near term prospects, I would be very close to all in on NSE and buckled up for the ride.
It's just so compelling, enormous and IMO obvious once you read the research notes.


I just posted that BBY (I don't know them either) have 1.03 target on NSE. They picked it abotu 4-5 months ago. I suspect we will see that within months so long as we avoid a global disaster of sorts.
NSE drilling in a few months too.

[bermuda]

guys, go and read anatol's latest post on hotcopper.
A true masterpiece. It really shows you in great detail exactly why NSE has the best permits in the canning and why the canning is the best basin in Australia.
NSE owns half of the basin, but most of the best bits.

It's just so emphatic. Tui, shrewdy, corporate, soulman, rabbi....all of you, go and read this bloody masterpiece.

TBE,
Yes I read that report. Very detailed and don't worry I would love to buy some NSE but you can't own them all. I would have to think about selling
ACN Big potential
BUL Huge shale potential and new ex Santos Diector now on Board. Seriously underated. Its prospective 3P reserves are worth over $1.50
COE Will get taken over. At least a 2 bagger. Could sell at 31% profit..
EKA $50m funding package released today. Could double quickly
MAD Yes I could sell now having bought in at 23 cents but there is another doubling of sp to come in the next year. Probably should sell and buy NSE.
NWE No way am I selling. Multi bagger
OXX Big strength in this one. Not selling.
SXY Every portfolio needs a thoroughbred. Not selling
STX I have waited too long to sell this. About to spark up with BPT and SXY jv's
WCL Worth more than $1.40 and under offer. Well, a pathetic offer at 65 cents.

So I am thinking about it! At least I have NSE in the ASX comp. Good luck with NSE. It could be fantastic.
Watching all the time.
Cheers

[The Big Ease]

bermuda youre quite right!

you;ve had some great stocks over the years and some very good ones in there too, almost always getting in early. I aspire to such patience.
Holding NWE as well. That is a little marvel! In fact I got onto that because you were posting on it. ;)

[Corporate]

NSE up 10% today! Nice

[The Big Ease]

what on earth happened Corporate?
Was there a research note that went out or has an insto finally decided to just go for it?

The message is getting out there. This is HUGE. Multiples of the Cooper and NSE owns the best bits. In fact, NSE's most prospective permits are larger than the Cooper's most prospective shale zones according to a map I saw. Once people get their heads around this, NSE will become a much larger company.


Not much supply until 49.5 but they're dripping it in off the screen.

[Corporate]

I'm not supprised at all TBE. NSE has just fooled people. When it was sitting in the low 30c range it was just amazingly undervalued - especially compared to BRU. early buyers got in sub 40c and now those slightly slower are catching onto how cheap NSE is. This will be 50c in the short term and once the drill bit hits the dirt...who knows!

Plenty of cash, large investment in BRU and Cononoc funding $110m for 75%! Beautiful story unfolding in the super basin.

[The Big Ease]

3862

A nice looking monthly chart. Spikes in volume getting bigger and bigger. Price on a very good uptrend.

[Corporate]

some catching up to do...

3863

[soulman]

Here's the catch up Corporate. BRU is stable today and NSE going great guns.

I feel NSE is doing a MAD here. Maybe the Motley Fools got this reco out. Anyone in the know?

[Rabbi]

Considering BRU has not proven up any reserves as yet, and has a valuation of $1.75 I think it is overbought. Not that I'm complaining, but NSE looks the best bet of the two as the lower SP gives it much more upside leverage. NSE is still a story waiting to unfold!

[Corporate]

50c close and market cap still only $145m. BRU now up to $477m!

Bring on drilling and farmout news!

[The Big Ease]

more volume and higher it goes.
It was nice to see it touch 51.5....almost breaking new ground, but there's no doubt about the momentum.

Merlinleigh farmout news will kick it along nicely.

[upside_umop]

It sure is looking good - have to admit to buying a few today...

Market cap: $145m
Cash: $23m (end of prior quarter)
BRU Investment: $30m (15m *$2.00)
EV: $92m

For $92m you get:
- Free carried over a four year, comprehensive drilling campaign over 11million gross acres or 2.75million net acres with Conocophillips worth $109m over the Goldwyer....substantial conventional targets placed in here too. Just see what BRU has hit.
- 100% 1.4million acres over the Merinleigh prospects in the Carnavon basin which they are currently looking to get "drill ready". Both shale and conventional targets.
- 1.4million gross acres over the Laurel Shales in the Canning Super basin ranging 50-60 WI.
- Then some small stuff in the USA which they are looking at various options....being farm-out, appraisal-development or sell out right.

These guys have got it going on.

[The Big Ease]

That's a neat summary upside_umop.
I take it you've read the research on HC?
That really opened up my eyes to how significant this play could be. I do wish we had retained more of the JV, but getting CP on board with their shale expertise is probably worth it. Still, 25% of that section of the Canning is multiples better than most IMO.

There is some good stuff going on up north, but it looks to me like the NSE acreage will make them look like an entree.

[upside_umop]

Yeah, I've been reading/following Anatol on HC for a bit. He's definitely switched on, and I'm sure he could retire once he's finished with this if it works out as we hope!

I thought 25% was a little on the slim side too - but CP must be worth it as they won't stuff this up. They know how to drill wells in shale. Best partner in the world to have in this I reckon...

The other thing I like about this is that they have heaps of cash and equivalents which gives the market certainty.

[The Big Ease]

When you have a look at where the acreage is then "11million gross acres or 2.75million net acres" to NSE in the Goldwyer is really big.
It's easy to get hung up on %. We have 25% of an awfully huge position and it has oil, conventional and unconventional gas. It has it all.
I can't wait until we drill those three spots. Right in the meat of it all. I need to pull my head in sometimes. This thing is very exciting.

[Corporate]

Great summary UU. Still so much upside to come! Will reply to your pm in the morning.

[Corporate]

Great summary UU. Still so much upside to come! Will reply to your pm in the
morning.

[bermuda]

When you have a look at where the acreage is then "11million gross acres or 2.75million net acres" to NSE in the Goldwyer is really big.
It's easy to get hung up on %. We have 25% of an awfully huge position and it has oil, conventional and unconventional gas. It has it all.
I can't wait until we drill those three spots. Right in the meat of it all. I need to pull my head in sometimes. This thing is very exciting.
TBE,
I am starting to get hyped on this one too and I have only got them in a competition! Might have to get my wallet out. You are lucky. You have both of them. ( NWE and NSE ), I only have NWE. I wonder which has the most leverage? Hopefully we will find out one day.

[The Big Ease]

to be honest B, I have a hard time quantifying the upside for both.
I do believe they both have the potential to be 10-20+ baggers. NSE could potentially be a 4-5bill company if it is allowed to get that far. I suspect it won't though.

I started a valuation thread on HC for NWE, but nobody had a go. What are your thoughts on NWE potential valuation?

[soulman]

A strong opening from NSE allowed me to exit at 54. A good feeling. Have got back in at 51.5 and 50.5.

Like I say before, NSE might be doing a MAD run and I am going to try and ride it as best as possible.

[drillfix]

A strong opening from NSE allowed me to exit at 54. A good feeling. Have got back in at 51.5 and 50.5.

Like I say before, NSE might be doing a MAD run and I am going to try and ride it as best as possible.


Way ta go souly, Share Traders own Billy Bronco in motion :t_up:

Ridem Cowboy :P

[drillfix]

Souly, another thing.

Here is a snapshot of NSE's intraday with a 60 min, 15 & 5 min charts accordingly.


NSE Intraday > http://postimage.org/image/m46hma9r9/

Now the 15 min is starting to fall over after a two day winning streak.
The 5 minute also confirms today weakness though can toggle up and down 3 times as much as the 15 (duhhhh:P)

Now the 60 min where the 13EMA also resides seems to show some support at 50c which may suggest a good entry again by yourself however a little concerning is some MACD negative divergence on the histogram and signal lines starting to cross.

The close of day will give a bit more direction towards sentiment I reckon, however just another angle from intraday for ya to see.

[soulman]

No problem Drill. A very nice close on NSE. Buyers comes in at the very last minute with about half a mil shares gone through at 52.

I see so many similar patterns between NSE and MAD. MAD went MAD from 13th Jan at 28 cents to currently 80 cents. NSE is on it's way.

[Corporate]

Bugger got stopped out of NSE at 50c yesterday. Can't complain to much though. Looking to make a re-entry shortly!

Topped up on MEO though.

[The Big Ease]

thats on helluva tight stop if you got out on a 3.5% drop!
Good luck getting back in Corporate.

[Corporate]

thats on helluva tight stop if you got out on a 3.5% drop!
Good luck getting back in Corporate.

TBE my inexperience with stoplosses is showing! This is the first time I have used one and I probably didn't put enough thought into it. Although looking at the last two days trading I may have fluked a timely exit (in the short term). We may see some downward pressure in the next week or so now that the drilling news is out and still a few months away.

Still a great LT hold!

[The Big Ease]

I probably know even less about stop losses than you.
Good luck with it though. I understand why you would have one.

[upside_umop]

Looks like it was a good exit Corp and locked in the profits. The doji star two days ago was pretty accurate.
BRU had a big down day too.

[Corporate]

Looks like it was a good exit Corp and locked in the profits. The doji star two days ago was pretty accurate.
BRU had a big down day too.

Not a great day for the Canning Basin but it can't be all upwards. I'm playing the wait and see on NSE. I've got a wad of cash burning a hole in my pocket...nearly bought another 50k MEO today but I've already got a few.

[Crypto Crude]

NSE is one of the great australian stories...
but this NWE...oh my...

watch out for both on Monday

:cool:
.^sc

[The Big Ease]

I've got both!
Very exciting few months for both I reckon.
The upside for both is just ridiculously high.

[Financially dependant]

I've got both!
Very exciting few months for both I reckon.
The upside for both is just ridiculously high.

Me too...It will be interesting to see NSE SP reaction on Monday morning to the NWE news....

I only got in recently because Beach looked a little topy...timing is everything, so hope I got lucky with this one????

[The Big Ease]

tbh i don;t think there will be a related reaction because they are both in very different parts of the state.

[hal]

tbh i don;t think there will be a related reaction because they are both in very different parts of the state.

There might a bit of relief for all the shale stocks because of the decision to allow NWE and AWE to frac.

[Financially dependant]

There might a bit of relief for all the shale stocks because of the decision to allow NWE and AWE to frac.

Yes my thoughts also, NSE without the ability to frac would have much less potential...

[soulman]

BRU and NSE having good days again. Lucky to pick a few more NSE at 47.5 earlier today. BRU seems to wipe out any sellers on it's way for a 14% gain today so far.

[CMo]

Great day for NSE today... It would be good to end the day on a high.

Currently at 68.5c (+12%)

[The Big Ease]

NWE and NSE just cruising nicely and in seemingly in tandem.
WA shale is on a bit of a roll.

[Rabbi]

NWE and NSE just cruising nicely and in seemingly in tandem.
WA shale is on a bit of a roll.

There seems to be significant profit taking occurring at the moment, which is not unexpected with the run we have had since it took off from 33 cents.
With not much news expected the SP should consolidate -hopefully in the 60-70 cent range-unless there is more good news out of the BRU camp to carry it forward again.
Importantly, NSE exploration does not commence until 3rd quarter this year, so I anticipate a quiet period until they announce the drill. It must be remembered, that the Goldwyer shales are unproven source rock so we are in unknown territory, compared to the Cooper basin. On the other hand, the Ordovician age marine shale could be the best in the world, even better than any North American shale.
But for the time being , I expect BRU to provide the excitement.

[soulman]

Judging by the MAD run yesterday by MAD, there is still runs left in NSE I reckon.

Just falling down to the low 60's to create a nice TA chart before a run up into the 70's and 80's mark.

I have exit at the high 60's and got lucky a few times exiting at the top.

Got in 62.5 today but as always looking at market depth and chart.

[Rabbi]

But for the time being , I expect BRU to provide the excitement.

The NSE wagon is hitched up to the Bru train, building upside even before the drill bit hits the ground. Good day today.:D

[Crypto Crude]

very well done rabbi,
this week I was thinking closely about and entry into NSE...
I decided to buy more NWE...

Im buying something juicy next week...
still undecided...
:cool:
.^sc

[The Big Ease]

another great day for NSE (...and NWE!!)

[upside_umop]

It's great to see NWE/NSE going in lock step. TBE you have picked the two best to have in your portfolio and must be looking great :D

I mainly switched out of NWE into NSE and only hold NWEO and NSE.

So many juicy plays out there at moment SC, but stick to what you know....we need to catch up soon.

[kiwiwim]

Hi all. Bought BRU and NSE in equal amounts. However the gain in BRU is double that of NSE. Always regret not buying more. Unfortunately cash is a finite resource.
SC, any comments on which of the two is the better one. Anatol on HP favours NSE.
Agree we soon need to have a catch-up, especially when Bermuda is back from the O & G conference in Sydney

[trackers]

Keen on a catch up also!! have done well out of NWE but resisted buying NSE just a couple days ago for 58c as I didn't know enough about it. oops.

[Crypto Crude]

hey trackers, upside we do indeed... perhaps in a few weekends we could do something....

hey kiwiwim,
I never studied BRU because it does not fit my investment criteria...

:cool:
.^sc

[soulman]

Another good day for the likes of NSE, BRU and OBL combo. NSE has taken a stake in EXR and that shares has spiked up to 9 odd cents today as well. EXR is a gas play in France though.

Gut feel that MAD is going for a run tomorrow after taking a breather for a few weeks.

[CMo]

News out today on Goldwyer Project

[soulman]

Very glad I exit most position on BRU at $3.01, NSE at 57 and OBL at 6.5. Also MAD at 1.465.

Looks like the end of the shale gas boom. Although there is always a chance to pick the low and trade the bounce.

[hal]

Very glad I exit most position on BRU at $3.01, NSE at 57 and OBL at 6.5. Also MAD at 1.465.

Looks like the end of the shale gas boom. Although there is always a chance to pick the low and trade the bounce.

I think that is bit of short term thinking there but the prices are certainly sliding at the moment. I am pretty certain it isn't affecting the activity within these companies as they are preparing for multiple wells and production in Buru's case.

Maybe once the oil starts flowing(for Buru) the share prices might turn around. Of course that might depend on the markets as well.

[soulman]

Hal, I think the market has priced all those stocks too heavily and the fall will be marked down heavily as well.

The chart for all those stocks signalled more falls.

[hal]

Hal, I think the market has priced all those stocks too heavily and the fall will be marked down heavily as well.

The chart for all those stocks signalled more falls.

Fair enough

I don't agree but that is what makes a market and I am more of an investor than trader.

Did you see Woodside's deal this week for Browse. Browse has a contingent resource of about 15.5 tcf and about 450 million barrels of condensate and they sold 14.7% for 2 Billion dollars. They also have to do all the drilling offshore for this project.

In my opinion this makes the Canning Basin look very good and therefore short term share price changes don't worry me.

Time will tell though

Good luck

[soulman]

Two execs director responsible for the 12 mil shares going through today. Selling in the 50's and buying their option strike price in the mid 20's. If you call that commitment, you might as well take my wallet from my pocket. I wasn't born yesterday.

[drillfix]

I here ya there souly, IMO who cares about execs!

Am also a little surprised to how much expectation there is on some of these Co's whilst the markets are hanging onto the side of a cliff by its fingernails.

IMO, its a time for safety, but that's just me.

Good luck to holders though!

[The Big Ease]

I agree that it was a bit rich dressing that up as commitment, but it is hardly heading for the exits either.
It's just smart financial management for the execs and it gives the company an additional 3m.

The execs aren't paid a fortune like at some other companies, so you could hardly expect them to stump up 3m to exercise their options.


Anyhow, there is plenty happening in the Canning.
BRU is completely opening up the basin to astronomical projections.
We all knew the numbers were big, but to start proving them up is very exciting.

BHP is on the record as saying they are scouring every square inch of Australia for shale opportunities just in case another major makes a move and they aren't ready.
"Geologically, we owe it to ourselves to be ready" or something to that effect.

REY and their bargain bonanza giveaway "JV" is very interesting to me.
They signed a deal in 2006 to conduct 4.8m worth of activities within 5 years for 90% petroleum rights.
That should be over by now...but for some reason it isn't. I don't understand it.

Anyhow, I suspect there is something going on with these guys. I think NSE is working on a deal to get themselves into the area.
That would be amazing. If NSE could get 50% for a cost of 10m or so, then it would put them way ahead of BRU in terms of acreage in that particular area that has proven to be so prospective.

Today's announcement by NSE is very interesting.


"The directors concerned have elected to exercise their options in advance of the 30 June 2012 expiry to remain outside any possible upcoming closed periods for director trading. The exercised options were originally issued to Mr Willis and Mr Hagan in 2008."


---------------
If this was simply about reporting periods, they probably wouldn't have used the word "possible" because they are well known time periods.
That is a massive hint of activity to come.

It could be a JV for Merlinleigh given they just made an announcement on GIP, significantly increased to 33tcf unconventional and 1.2tcf conventional, with evidence of liquids potential.
However, NSE have stated that they don't expect to do a deal on this until later this year.

This is why I think there is something going down with REY and Gujarat.
That would be spectacular.

[Joshuatree]

.



REY and their bargain bonanza giveaway "JV" is very interesting to me.
They signed a deal in 2006 to conduct 4.8m worth of activities within 5 years for 90% petroleum rights.
That should be over by now...but for some reason it isn't. I don't understand it.


I read 2008 with 6 years to spend $4.8m so have til 2014

[upside_umop]

I'm surprised more people don't follow NSE / BRU here on Sharetrader.

NSE are in their first of 3 wells with ConocoPhillips targeting the Goldwyer. Last week they announced they have had increasing gas shows and the first core showed grey to black shales indicating high TOC.

As far as leverage, this is as good as it gets. Of course, we can't just let the drill bit do the talking...a lot of lab analysis will be undertaken to take this to stage 2 of the farmin agreement. Still, COP aren't stupid and this play is being compared as analogous to the Bakken....

I hold NSE, BRU and KEY...and some AKK.

[Corporate]

I'm surprised more people don't follow NSE / BRU here on Sharetrader.

NSE are in their first of 3 wells with ConocoPhillips targeting the Goldwyer. Last week they announced they have had increasing gas shows and the first core showed grey to black shales indicating high TOC.

As far as leverage, this is as good as it gets. Of course, we can't just let the drill bit do the talking...a lot of lab analysis will be undertaken to take this to stage 2 of the farmin agreement. Still, COP aren't stupid and this play is being compared as analogous to the Bakken....

I hold NSE, BRU and KEY...and some AKK.

My thoughts as well UU. I've previously held NSE but have switched to BRU.

BRU and NSE have stitched up the canning basin.

There will be a major transaction soon!

[trackers]

Its just the timeframes that put me off. from coring to some actual fraccing could be what, 6months to a year? M&A would change things though, thats for sure

[upside_umop]

Fair enough trackers, however if they can prove that the Goldwyer is contiguous over the 200km spacing of the three drills and the short term milestones, I'm happy to wait. The price will rerate accordingly too..
EV of around $80m for 2m acres in the Goldwyer which is pretty much all prospective is great value. Then there is the Laurel and Merinleigh (both wet gas targets too). Probably should mention Colorado assets too which have a carrying value of around $10m on the books and they're looking to divest. Oh, and in this $80m EV is COP $119m free carry (provide stage 2 / 3 get the go ahead).

Time will tell, as you say...it's a bit of timeframe but there is a lot of work to do!

[Crypto Crude]

REY is an interesting company I have been watching closely for a few weeks...
I think it could keep falling, but damn theres coin to be made in it (at some stage).....


It looks like the canning is starting to run again... go you good thing...

:cool:
.^sc

[upside_umop]

I've been watching REY too for quite a while but if you believe there is value in REY, go for BRU. I haven't done a comparative EV/Acre but I'm assuming BRU isn't too much more expensive than REY and they're running the show.

REY will do well but BRU is less risky at this point. The question at this stage is "How low, can REY go" (if you sing it, it sounds quite cool).

[Corporate]

REY have rubbish management and are at the mercy of BRU! I wouldn't touch them with a barge pole..... :-)

[The Big Ease]

I think the first well will see a re-rate of NSE close to previous highs.

REY - only at lower prices. They have about 10m in cash so MC is valuing its prospects at ~15m.
Around 4 cents it would be worth a speculative punt.

In January 2012 I made the decision to go with NSE and not BRU. A big mistake that cost me 300%. However, I think NSE is about to make a run.

[Crypto Crude]

yeah upside...
REY could fall to 3cents but I dont think it will go that far... it could be worth a buck....
I think you are right... just stick to the canning basin stocks that own the show...
interesting to look at all the companies involved...
I will be watching closely....

:cool:
.^sc

[The Big Ease]

I'm as big a dreamer as anybody, but I just cannot ever see REY reaching 1 dollar.
I cant believe it was 40 cents 18 months ago, before BRU had proven up that side of the Canning.
I suppose coal was booming back then.

[gazprom1]

Ugly...warranted??

[trackers]

Ouch...damn

[The Big Ease]

I don't see the problem.
No wet gas, but great cores, depth and lots of gas.
70m of cash equivalent. Is The Goldwyer & a jv with cp really worth 40m?

[Corporate]

Not a good start it seems for NSE unfortunately. I wonder how this will impact BRU. Money could flow in or out depending on your point of view.

[soulman]

Ouch indeed. I see that BKP got the cane too for those kind of announcement.

[upside_umop]

Ouch alright - had the welcome as I pulled into Dunedin and checked up on the announcement.

Maybe Sam is too honest?! I think they may have cored some of the Willara and this is why drop in core quality? They seemed to start coring quite late. In anycase, no C4 was disappointing...but these are the risks!

Another two wells to go....could drift further.

[soulman]

Amazingly NSE was doing a capital raising at 30 cents almost a year ago and here we are again. No mentioned on any taxation implication on the BRU sale, most likely offsetting their accumulated losses.

I am tempting to get back on board.

[airedale]

I am not holding NSE but today's update/presentation caught my interest. After going from 30 cents to 70+ cents on earlier optimism it has slowly drifted back to around 30 cents. Any decent news could see it make another run.
Is it time to start nibbling or is it one for the watchlist?

[Rabbi]

I am not holding NSE but today's update/presentation caught my interest. After going from 30 cents to 70+ cents on earlier optimism it has slowly drifted back to around 30 cents. Any decent news could see it make another run.
Is it time to start nibbling or is it one for the watchlist?

It may run up when they drill Gibb-Maitland, then again it may not, however they seem to think this location is better. NSE just had a
presentation yesterday and they are bullish on Gibb-Maitland but, with 60 days to drill this well, there is going to be plenty of time to
jump on board. I prefer BRU, with the Ungani Oil trend looking like a Company maker.

[Corporate]

I've recently been buying NSE at 32c.

Can't ignore and EV of $35m in the canning basin with a major covering ~$110m of drilling expenditure!

I just checked my records and I was buying NSE at 32c back in December 2011. Luckily I sold mid 50's later in the year.

[gazprom1]

May impact some of these explorers:
http://www.theage.com.au/business/cheap-us-gas-set-to-scupper-local-projects-20121122-29r4z.html

Hi KW,

I guess there is potential for the market to become saturated which will in turn affect LNG prices. SocGen were stating that natural gas prices were depressed in the US but the price of NatGas that I follow has increased from a very bottom of around $2.25 to more than $3.80 last night.

IMHO it is possible that the US will come slowly out of recession and have modest growth which will impact on demand for natural gas especially if prices remain depressed leaving less for the export market. Demand out of emerging asian economies will continue to grow and take up some of that extra capacity. The US boom in natural gas may have the effect of keeping prices "balanced" instead of a massive boom should the world economy grow rapidly post 2015.

Gazprom

[airedale]

around $3.80Hi Gazprom, I switch on CNBC before breakfast to look at the US market overnight and I have noticed that their figure for Natural gas has crept up as you say to around $3.80 from the mid $2.00 mark. It is not something that the talking heads seem to comment on. Does anyone have a chart for this.?

[Crypto Crude]

this is a super company...
90 million market cap and 60 million cash...
This is very likely looking like a slow investment in the mean time...
When NWE motors, this could really be the next strong investment for me to back into...
I hope it plays out...
:cool:
.^sc

[Corporate]

this is a super company...
90 million market cap and 60 million cash...
This is very likely looking like a slow investment in the mean time...
When NWE motors, this could really be the next strong investment for me to back into...
I hope it plays out...
:cool:
.^sc


Definitely worth having a seat at the table with this one SC. Easy money in my view.

[Crypto Crude]

corporate,
you are so right on a long term view...
im just tied up at the moment... dominatrix...
no spare money, things are tight with cashflow until I have a strong win...I have a good few k pouring in this week for a change...
now time to think what I might do with it... im always up for a sound gamble, nse is sound... I will have to wait.,,
:cool:
.^sc

[The Big Ease]

It will be interesting to watch what NSE does leading up to the second spud.
I expect movement up towards 40 cents, but you just never know.
Chart looks terrible. I'm looking for a double bottom or further weakness for one last shake, capitulation and a sharp spike back up.

Whether I get back in will depend on timing of other developments.
I've got a nice stash of cash on its way but we will see if it arrives on time!

[trackers]

NSE at 18.5c...damn.

Can commiserate with the drilling contractor woes from a similar issue with AJQ - Worth a go at these levels?

[slimwin]

People have been asking that all the way down i'm sure.

[trackers]

Well they're exactly at cash backing now....

[Crypto Crude]

Well they're exactly at cash backing now....

to me,
at 18cents New standard energy presents a standout investment at current prices...
This has been knocked senseless... the Goldwyer project looks certain for major gas production...
BRU has remanded 'valued'...
NSE market value has been wiped clear...
cyrene is there and coming into the conventional target...

Lets be honest, In australia, the shale gas sector hasn't been working... not if, but when it does happen, these sorts of companies are right at the front of a world staged expansion...

:cool:
.^sc

[Rabbi]

The shale gas sector in Australia has not been embraced by the investing public, as they don't know what the industry entails. It's not so much that it's high risk exploration, but high risk economics of producing.
I wouldn't say BRU is anything near fair value at $2.40, as I heard a valuation of $3.20 as being closer to valuation. Even the doyen of shale gas explorers in the Cooper- Beach Energy- is grossly undervalued, the shale assets seemingly not factored into their SP. Same with Senex Energy.

Buy BRU for their conventional Oil in the Ungani trend and NSE for a punt long term.

[trackers]

Thanks guys - I'm not surprised that it hasnt been embraced by investors to date, for reasons mentioned above and also by how damn long it takes to do anything - From deciding to drill some cores to fraccing and flowing liquids takes an age (and not just talking about the NWE experience which has been longer than most).

I've got a low ball bid on NSE with a long term investment view and will be happy if it gets hit. Any news on a replacement rig could give sp a shunt though

[soulman]

News of a new investor got NSE pumped.....but it's more of a deal between PetroC and Conoco, not that PetroC thinks Goldywer is a gem. Finally a win for me........

[The Big Ease]

It looks like Merlinleigh drilling is getting some investors excited.
Rising on light volume, it will be interesting to see if it can sustain the rise leading up to the drill coming on site.

NSE has had a horrid 12 months and now they won't be drilling the Goldwyer until mid-next year.
Apparently Merlinleigh is much better understood and has a higher chance of success, with potential for fast-tracked commercialisation due to location near pipeline and customers.

Anybody still in this?

[soulman]

Transformation deal my behind.

If shareholders vote down the transaction, NSE could well rallied.

[The Big Ease]

Yep, immensely disappointing.
Transformed company and risk profile into something nobody wants.

Higher debt -> risk
International -> risk
Asset they don't understand -> risk (check out cmonaussie's posts on HC for how bleak these appear to be vs cost to acquire and develop)
Beholden to Magnum Hunter to drill/develop eagleford -> risk
Issuing 1/4 of company shares to associated entities -> risk

They are paying full value to increase the risk profile of the company and have a potential predator on its share registry to benefit if things don't go according to plan...the same plan to which they are beholden to the said predator.

I can see this dropping to around 6-7 cents.
Amazing stupidity.