ASX200 - Sentiment Indicator

[Stranger_Danger]

So, just for fun (this is not a competition) what is your guess for the ASX200 on 31/12/2012.

Mine is 4400.

Keen to get a read to how bullish or bearish people are feeling about the rest of the year.

[drillfix]

Which one exactly SD?

XAO All Ords (my guestimate would be 3,250
or
XJO S&P200 (my guestimate would be 3,050

I am bearish, though I see your call for ASX 200 is upward.

Perhaps we will test the lower range and then back up again but with the EU about to meltdown and G8 puppets meeting in the US for discussions I honestly think the gig will be up this time around.

Who knows though, its a very different world we live in now compared to 5 or even 10 years ago~!

[jennym]

xjo is in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows.
looking post gfc low in 2009, there was a high in april 2010 ten a slightly lower high in april 2011 and a much lower high in early may 2012. at the rate things are going at the moment, it seems that this trend is going to continue for the next year or two at least.
chances are that we will put in a lower low between now and sept/oct ish then move towards the next seasonal high which is likely to be lower than this years high.
31 dec is roughly 1/2 way up the move between the low and the high.
based on this, my guess is that it will be about 3900 just by eyeballing the price action over the last few years.
who knows how long it will be before the trend changes.

3900 or there abouts is my guess for this one.

[Lizard]

So, just for fun (this is not a competition) what is your guess for the ASX200 on 31/12/2012.


If we put our names to a figure, doesn't that become a competition by default? :D

Maybe a poll would generate a few more responses in an easier format - though think you need a new thread as don't think you can add a poll later.

Anyway, since I operate on hope (and banks seem to be pushing money out the door), I'll go for 4850 as my pick. Though expect quite a bit of sector rotation with that.

[drillfix]

I guess that would be correct what you say Liz, as in by naming a number you competing.

In some ways, it is a longer version of what they do on Hot Flopper everyday with the daily competition called Closest to the Pin where by people each day can elect what colour and number the Dow will close at. ie: Red -27 or green +29 etc etc

Thought that would be a fun idea for here as well but ST is low key and slower pace which is also wonderful so no need for Charades here :)

The yearly XJO is a good one regardless of a however we view it, as regardless it offers sentiment as SD has titled the thread.

[mark100]

A low of around 3700-3800 and a finish to the year of 4300. The low we make this year (whatever number it eventually turns out to be) will be it in my view. I think the aussie market will then begin the very early stages of a bull market (not a 2006-2007 style raging bull, but a slow and steady one at least for a few years anyway)

[tricha]

So, just for fun (this is not a competition) what is your guess for the ASX200 on 31/12/2012.

Mine is 4400.

Keen to get a read to how bullish or bearish people are feeling about the rest of the year.


Good one Stranger Danger - I'll go for 3500

An Indicator to what will be, as we all know mining = Australia. The writing is on the wall, I'm afraid.


Chinese defer ore shipmentsSean Smith, The West AustralianMay 23, 2012, 7:25 am
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/13757098/chinese-defer-ore-shipments/

[mark100]

The end of the mining boom is why I think the aussie market will recover late this year. Overall I don't think the mining boom has been that good for the stockmarket. It has inflated the A$ and caused interest rates to be higher than where they would be otherwise hurting stocks exposed to the general economy.
An end to the mining boom, which is happening, should see the A$ pull back further and interest rates to fall further. This should set the scene for a recovery in consumer spending and new house construction. The cash from the mining boom only found its way into a few pockets

[drillfix]

Good one Stranger Danger - I'll go for 3500



Looks like I am still winning a gold for ShareTrader's most pessimistic~!

I thought you would sure have more doom than me T :p

[soulman]

The end of the mining boom is why I think the aussie market will recover late this year. Overall I don't think the mining boom has been that good for the stockmarket. It has inflated the A$ and caused interest rates to be higher than where they would be otherwise hurting stocks exposed to the general economy.
An end to the mining boom, which is happening, should see the A$ pull back further and interest rates to fall further. This should set the scene for a recovery in consumer spending and new house construction. The cash from the mining boom only found its way into a few pockets

Yeah, the drug dealer, the casino, the government, luxury car dealership and real estate agent.

I see dividend yield (based on interest rate going down further) and good manage stock do OK. We will end in circa 4300.

[tricha]

Looks like I am still winning a gold for ShareTrader's most pessimistic~!

I thought you would sure have more doom than me T :p

I'm out of it, so it does not matter that much to me.

QE4 needs to come soon, or you may, well be right Drillfix.
I take it with your view, you would be out as well?

See you all in three months.

Happy hunting.

China slowdown threatens Australian economy

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/13759041/china-slowdown-threatens-australian-economy/

[drillfix]

I'm out of it, so it does not matter that much to me.

QE4 needs to come soon, or you may, well be right Drillfix.
I take it with your view, you would be out as well?



Yep, I am out for the time being, perhaps longer until, if, should, this mess ever sort itself out.

Not prepared to even think about trading whilst risk has just become twice as high prior to the fall, so best out IMO.

Good luck to you T, enjoy your 3 months off~!

[shasta]

Yep, I am out for the time being, perhaps longer until, if, should, this mess ever sort itself out.

Not prepared to even think about trading whilst risk has just become twice as high prior to the fall, so best out IMO.

Good luck to you T, enjoy your 3 months off~!

To be contrarian 3333

[percy]

[QUOTE=Stranger_Danger;374285]So, just for fun (this is not a competition) what is your guess for the ASX200 on 31/12/2012.

This is off course very easy to work out for anyone who has followed history and knows the right mathmatical formula to use.
This year the formula is LOG;London Olympic Gold.
History tells us sporting success or failure governs Australian sentiment more than anything else.
So the LOG formula is as follows.
On the upside;
1. each gold medal is worth 50 points on the index.
2.each silver medal is worth 10 points on the index.
3.each bronz medal is woth 2 points on the index.
On the downside is the greatest risk.
1.Failure to win any gold medals the index will drop 1,000 points.
2.Nz winning more medals than Australia the index will drop 1,500 points.
3.NZ winning 4 or more gold medals and Australia not winning any,the index will drop 2,000 points.


Off course until the London Olympics have finished, no clear direction of where the index will finish at the end of the year is possible.

[percy]

[QUOTE=Stranger_Danger;374285]So, just for fun (this is not a competition) what is your guess for the ASX200 on 31/12/2012.

This is off course very easy to work out for anyone who has followed history and knows the right mathmatical formula to use.
This year the formula is LOG;London Olympic Gold.
History tells us sporting success or failure governs Australian sentiment more than anything else.
So the LOG formula is as follows.
On the upside;
1. each gold medal is worth 50 points on the index.
2.each silver medal is worth 10 points on the index.
3.each bronz medal is woth 2 points on the index.
On the downside is the greatest risk.
1.Failure to win any gold medals the index will drop 1,000 points.
2.Nz winning more medals than Australia the index will drop 1,500 points.
3.NZ winning 4 or more gold medals and Australia not winning any,the index will drop 2,000 points.


Off course until the London Olympics have finished, no clear direction of where the index will finish at the end of the year is possible.

Did not expect Aussie's to claim NZ gold's. Australasia/NZ ?????