SVR - Savor Ltd (Formerly MOA)

[ENP]

MOA float next month.

Same geniuses as 42 Below.

Who's in?

[ratkin]

No chance..

[percy]

I have steered clear of it too. Don't think it will mota.

[skeet]

Its tasty, but no

[777]

In 12 months maybe.

[waikare]

In 12 months maybe.

I am a mabe also, but perhaps a little longer then 12 months, perhaps 18 months to 2 years.

[janner]

I can remember at least 4 small Breweries starting up in Henderson in the 80's.. All went belly up..

No.. Not for me thanks..

[brucey09]

Snrs.
You stay with the Corona - yes? perfecto.

[Stranger_Danger]

I personally think you'd need to be retarded to buy into this offer, but as a disclaimer, I thought that about 42below and Xero too. So take from that what you will.

I suspect I will never find a business with those sort of financials wanting that sort of valuation that I would be willing to buy. Maybe I'm just not the target market?

Regardless, there are clearly people who are willing to gamble with the deck stacked against them so I hope, like Xero in particular, the Moa guys can at least use the idiots money to build a real business.

If nothing else, using money voluntarily provided by idiots to build something real and giving them breadcrumbs of the return is way better for society than just stealing it from the idiots, which is the normal fate of the idiot.

Good luck to them, I will definitely take a look after its been funded by the idiots, and would be interested if one day its a real business at a reasonable price.

[CJ]

Wont be investing but will keep an eye on them. I dont see them having the same potetial as 42B, or even Ecoya and those are well below the potential of Xro and DIL.

Interesting way to reduce IPO costs by selling advertising in the investment statement (or were they all Business Bakery companies?)

[winner69]

Always wanted to know the etiquette when to open doors and all that stuff ,,, but hard to keep your eyes off the chick on the grey horse .... OMG she putting herself in danger riding like ... could have at least put a hard hat on in case she fell off in her excitment

[macduffy]

I won't be in for this float either but still wish the company success. Goodness knows, the NZX needs more listings and a bit of excitement never goes amiss!

[CJ]

I won't be in for this float either but still wish the company success. Goodness knows, the NZX needs more listings and a bit of excitement never goes amiss!Agree completely.

We need more companies on the NZX.

[Anna Naum]

Page 115 gets to the nitty gritty. $2.4m revenue. $2.8m EBITDA loss.

A document search for the word "earnings" shows the document is a bit thin on this.

Page 11 has some useful statements too. "Moa Group is forecasting a pro forma net loss after tax of $3.5 million in FY13 and a loss of $2.5 million in FY14 and is forecasting to have $2.9 million in cash at 31 March 2014 (on the basis of total gross proceeds of $15 million and no oversubscriptions). Moa Group’s current intention is to continue to apply funds in order to grow its business. Funding of this continued growth is intended to be achieved through funds raised from this Offer and other sources considered prudent at the time. There is a risk Moa Group’s growth plans may be unsuccessful or require higher levels of expenditure than forecast. Should Moa Group not be able to secure additional funding when required, it may need to slow its growth investment and endeavour to move its activities towards generating profits earlier than anticipated. "

We also see on page 107 that in 2014, revenue is forecast at just under $5m. Even in 2 years time, this company is still going to be tiny - and unprofitable.

Now, this is a startup, and there are some clever people involved. But the buying of beer is discretionary and substitutional on a number of levels. You can buy other boutique beer, other mainstream beers, or other forms of alcohol, or none at all. People swap out of brands for all sorts of reasons and occasions.

I wanted this listing to succeed, and so when I found out about the listing, I thought I would go to the liquor store in Matakana, which is listed on the Moa website, and pick up some of their beer to try. The liquor store told me "Oh - the distributor has changed, we don't stock this anymore". Clearly they make a nice beer, but distribution is notso hotso, even on the outskirts of Auckland. And if a place like Matakana (where they like boutique produce) isn't enthusiastic.....

I'm not investing. Good luck, and cheers to those who pick some shares up.

Also look at the capacity of the current brewery and think how much is it going to cost to expand the current facility to allow for some growth.....

[karen1]

From Brian Gaynor

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10840164

I found this article excellent reading, appreciating the comparisons of companies but was staggered at the mention of the rich Robinson family, RAK.

Like others, I wish MOA well, but will watch from the sidelines.

[Balance]

From Brian Gaynor

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10840164

I found this article excellent reading, appreciating the comparisons of companies but was staggered at the mention of the rich Robinson family, RAK.

Like others, I wish MOA well, but will watch from the sidelines.

Was 42 Below a fluke?

Is Ecoya a wonder company which is going to find a buyer (sucker?) like Bacardi paid up for 42 Below? Bear in mind that 42 Below happened during the go-go M&A mad era when alcohol companies were going crazy paying top prices for just about everything. Lion Nathan and Fosters are still nursing the destruction of wealth from paying crazy prices for wine companies.

When you have answered for yourself the two questions above, make your decision.

BTW - Geoff Ross has created more value for NZ and in the end for investors than Allan Hawkins, Eric Watson, Colin Reynolds, Bruce Judge etc put together ever did.

[waikare]

There are 17 comments so far, none appear to be supporting the float

[Stranger_Danger]

Was 42 Below a fluke?

BTW - Geoff Ross has created more value for NZ and in the end for investors than Allan Hawkins, Eric Watson, Colin Reynolds, Bruce Judge etc put together ever did.

So far. The problem with that comparison is that certain of those names were WAY out in front, part way through their story.

The problem with these "promotional" types and their associated companies is it really hard to know what you're dealing with and how they will react when things go really wrong.

As you say, 42 Below was sold at the peak of the boom.

It is a little early to be adding up the wealth created by Geoff Ross and comparing it to history - the 1986 numbers by some of those names would have been mighty impressive.

[CJ]

There are 17 comments so far, none appear to be supporting the floatIf I had a bigger portfolio, I would throw a few grand in. But I already have a few spec stocks so dont want to go overboard, incl 3 from Brian Gaynors article.

[Balance]

Anyone who has ever thought about starting a business (or better still, started one) knows how risky and tough it can be.

It's not just the $$$ you have to put in that's at risk, it's also all the time you put into thinking, planning, strategizing and then, executing.

How do you really measure those $$$ and the time put in?

That's really what the Moa IPO is about.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

CJ this cat will be taking a good look at the prospectous Made good money out of 42Below would not even look at Ecoya but yet it has done fairly well & they seem to be going well in rescuing Dorchestor. So in my opinion well worth a look. The Mill liquor chain seems to be doing well selling different Beers & other alcoholic drinks so I think there is a market out there for different beers. But the Greymouth one did not get off the ground. But seemed to be limited to one brand & style. This from what I make of it so far is many labels & styles. Would be even more interested if I could drink it. But Alcohol is a definite No No with the medication I am taking. Anybody tasted any of there Beers? Opinions on taste would be much appreciated.

[kizame]

At the end of the day beer is beer,personally I tend to buy on price.Corona was my favourite tipple,but the price has gone up and I simply look at others cheaper now.
I think it is about the brand and the marketing,Geoff Ross is all about marketing.
The brand is a kiwi icon in the making, purely because it is unique to NZ.eg Tui and speights(very well marketed products,with a very big kiwi mind hold).
Geoff Ross hasn't put a foot wrong yet,his timing is right.
But for value,I think that depends how you look at it.

I Won't buy yet.

[macduffy]

Yes, I'm sure that it's all about branding and marketing. I don't drink a lot of beer but I rarely try one that I don't like! It's a matter of developing a cult following amongst the young - I'm pretty confident that Geoff Ross and his team are up to that. After that, it becomes a question of whether Lion or DB move first to swalllow them up; when that happens and at what price. A sort of market development laboratory for the big brewers.

[skydog]

I think the problem is the cost of the product. I went to buy some drinks last night at a supemarket and thought I would try a Moa. At just under $10 for a 375ml bottle, you are looking at $100 -$120 a dozen pending on the type. What are they going to charge in a nice bar? Macduffy you mentioned about developing a cult following amongs the young. They won't be able to afford it in NZ. Oh by the way, I got a dozen Kingfisher for $19.99. :)

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Skydog is that the brewerys Fault or the Supermarkets. With supermarkets it usually the story about who is paying the biggest Kick Back

[winner69]

Skydog is that the brewerys Fault or the Supermarkets. With supermarkets it usually the story about who is paying the biggest Kick Back

Moa fault ...they recently said they had listened to their customers and agreed prices were too high and said they would reduce prices a bit ....doubt whether sky dog will ever be a fan of moa

[winner69]

Little beer quarter has pints pale ale for about 10 bucks

[janner]

skydog.. You have to be joking.. " At just under $10 for a 375ml bottle, ".. I find this very hard to believe ..

How much had you consumed before you entered this Supermarket ??

[winner69]

From the Moa website dated June

These days it’s all about doing more with less – bang for buck and the like. So, Moa is releasing a leaner and cheaper packaging range.

From June, the Moa Estate range (Moa Methode, Moa Blanc, Moa Noir and Moa Pale Ale) sports a fancy new look 4-pack and more than 30% off the price – $18.99 RRP down from $27.99.

“The new price point makes great, homegrown Kiwi craft beer even more accessible for the discerning beer hunter,” says Moa General Manager Gareth Hughes.

“We had some feedback from the market that the price of a Moa Estate 4 pack was too high, so we have taken that on board and made the necessary changes to address that. Our cost of goods has been sliced, our retailers have the opportunity to upsell from single bottle sales to 4 packs and the punters get the same super premium product at a better price. It what they call a win win win.”

The new packaging features a redesigned 330ml bottle, down from its 375ml predecessor and a slight drop in alcohol content (5.5% to 5%) to sidestep the looming excise tax hike.

Hughes says the changes make Moa a more streamlined and competitive exporter – a big plus given recent US expansion.

“Things such as glass savings, lighter pallet weights and less cardboard all play a big part in the export game. Naturally, such a big price drop is a positive for both Kiwi and US consumers,” he says.

The RRP on Moa Estate 12 packs will also drop from $6.99 per bottle to $4.99 and Moa Reserve 12 packs from $8.49 to $6.99.

Come August, Moa favourites Moa Original & Weka Cider also get a new look ‘carry carton’ package style.

[janner]

Thanks winner.. Confirmation.. No interest.. Heard the man on radio today espousing " The Cloudy Bay of Beer "..

No further comment...

[Sideshow Bob]

Never tasted it, but at that money, I'd rather buy some cheaper imported beer....

[CJ]

I remember the day when everything Eric Waston touched turned to gold. Hopefully Geoff wont suffer the same state.

I am in Ecoya in a small way. Their candle business didn't inspire me that much but now they have Trilogy, I think the two fit well together (shared distribution, marketing etc).

Re Moa, I think the growth required is to great (what is their break even point).

Interesting that Brian G didn't include BurgerFuel in his table. A similar IPO (NZAX though) and based on 42Below/Moa style advertising. It sunk to some very deep lows but now seems to have things on track. Very illiquid though.

[winner69]

Never tasted it, but at that money, I'd rather buy some cheaper imported beer....


Obviously not the target market sideshow

Give Ross et al their dues .... they stick to their guns about a PREMIUM offering .... jeez that distilled alcohol with some feijoa in it was expensive ..... and a lot of people just love the $35/$40 nice smelling candles ..... and no doubt many love this beer which is priced above msot over brands

Just like that naked chick astride a white stallion sells candles so will the cool dudes and short skirted long legged chicks in the prospectus sell Moa .... a different class of punter than what you see Sunday morning in Courtenay Place i must say

[janner]

No further comment ..

[skydog]

Janner, I was sober. The selection of these craft beers is now huge. Seems like every man and his dog is giving it a go. I did also notice many of the other beers are a 500ml bottle at about the same price. I just think kiwi craft beers might think too highly of themselves and try to price accordinaly.Each to their own tastes and budget. A good website for beers / pricing is www.beercellar.co.nz (http://www.beercellar.co.nz)

[Marilyn Munroe]

I speculate that the unstated aim of this enterprise is to build sufficient market share to annoy their major Japanese or Dutch competitors and provoke one of them into making a takeover bid.

Boop boop de do

Marilyn

Speights, the pride of Tokyo.
Morton Coutts friend of the working man, ja rechts.

[The GrandMaster]

I expect you lot all still drink cask wine then?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

This might interest others for comparison pricing. http://www.themill.co.nz/

[Marilyn Munroe]

"Craft brewer a likely takeover target"

Seems like Christchurch Press business columnist Chalkie and I are of the same mind about Moa being a potential takeover target by either one of our Japanese or Dutch major brewers.

According to Chalkie the brewer from Tokyo has just completed the takeover of a minor brewer across the ditch.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/7824437/Craft-brewer-a-likely-takeover-target


Boop boop de do

Marilyn

[Beetle]

As a female beer drinking share investor, the slightly sexist prospectus (even if it is tongue in cheek) isn't really doing it for me. Bought shares in Ecoya when they were well below IPO price. Might wait for a year down the track and see where Moa is it.

[CJ]

Moa lists today at midday. Hugely oversubscribed so will be interesting to see if it goes up.

Did anyone apply?

[CJ]

I saw Ross was buying more shares and thought this was a great vote of confidence. As I wasn't investing, I didn't read the prospectus but apparently "The float includes limited recourse loans for the purchase of $1.1 million of redeemable shares under the offer issued at the offer price by Ross". http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10847020 I assume this means he only has to repay if the share price goes up.

So his 'vote of confidence' is really a scam.

Expected to list at a premium per the link. 3 min till we find out.

[Halebop]

...Did anyone apply?

It was priced too rich for me, I think the promoters place too much value on their marketing nous and not enough value on my capital.

[CJ]

First trades at $1.35, now at $1.32. A nice 6-8% stag for some. And still a bit of depth down to the IPO price so a nice safe stag as well. Will be interesting to see where it is in 6 months time.

[noodles]

Milford Asset Management Limited is a SSH. To be honest, given the high valuation, I'm surprised they are in so deep.I also brought into the IPO. This was purely speculative as it was way over subscribed. I'll be out as soon as there is a sniff of weakness in the share price.

[CJ]

Milford Asset Management Limited is a SSH. To be honest, given the high valuation, I'm surprised they are in so deep.I also brought into the IPO. This was purely speculative as it was way over subscribed. I'll be out as soon as there is a sniff of weakness in the share price.
Brian is a big supporter of these early stage listings from what I understand. [edit: and without support from the likes of him, this IPO would never have gone ahead. Business Bakery would have been sounding out these types of firms for a while.]

[Balance]

Milford Asset Management Limited is a SSH. To be honest, given the high valuation, I'm surprised they are in so deep.I also brought into the IPO. This was purely speculative as it was way over subscribed. I'll be out as soon as there is a sniff of weakness in the share price.

Drifting now towards issue price of $1.25.

It has been 3 weeks since the shares listed and there has been no announcements - the company needs to pump out good news soon if it is to hold issue price.

Ecoya is now below issue price and is nearly 40% down on its share price peak in the middle of the year.

[noodles]

I've already sold my measly allocation. I hope I am wrong in selling out. I'd like to see it succeed.

One of the things that prompted me to sell was tasting their wheat beer. It reminded me of my home brew efforts.

[GTM 3442]

Good morning team,

I'm thinking of buying some MOA as gifts for some young relatives.

Anybody know if they do any shareholder offers, like Delegats and Terravitae do with wine ?

Might be a deciding factor !

Thanks

[Baaarney]

No such luck (yet)

but I did get a 'thank you' type letter with 2 stickers and the offer of a free t shirt. Currently my wife and I are arguing over who gets the t shirt

[janner]

Brian is a big supporter of these early stage listings from what I understand. [edit: and without support from the likes of him, this IPO would never have gone ahead. Business Bakery would have been sounding out these types of firms for a while.]

Win some... Lose some.. :-))

[janner]

Not for me !!..

[GTM 3442]

OK, so it's Delegats and Terravitae for them then. They can learn to like wine.

[Balance]

Brian is a big supporter of these early stage listings from what I understand. [edit: and without support from the likes of him, this IPO would never have gone ahead. Business Bakery would have been sounding out these types of firms for a while.]

Win some... Lose some.. :-))

Brian Gaynor and Milford used to have the magic touch - anything they bought, the market followed and pushed the share price up - giving Milford lovely gains on their fund, and investors very happy.

With the deep decline of Ecoya, the drop of Moa and BFW in recent times but the rise and rise of Diligent (Diligent being the stock which gave Milford its superlative returns but which Milford has been reducing) - one guesses the market will be more wary in future.

Everything ultimately comes back to fundamentals.

[airedale]

I don't expect too much from MOA until their new brewery is up and running and then it will be the job for the sales team to get out and actually sell the beer in great volume.

[GTM 3442]

I'm surprised the SP hasn't fallen well under $1 yet what with many years ahead with nothing but red on the balance sheet. Me thinks your kids would like you a lot more if you bought SNK and it turned out to do an XRO style hike over the next couple of years. Each to their own though I guess!

Moosie, the idea is to access the "shareholder offer" if there is one.

This means a very small holding, with the benefit coming in the access to discounted product - the shares are essentially discount vouchers.

[Billy Boy]

looks like were going to see another bfw chart form. as the initial enthusiasm wears off, shorter term teaders will sell out for less and less on lighter volume as loss stacks up. this was never a buy-in from the get go, best to let it bottom and wait for the uptrend to form in a year or 3.
Thats if the big boys dont snapp them up soon.
BB

[Dej]

It was a very hyped up IPO, a lot of advertisement etc I can understand how some who thought "owning a brewery" would be better than this and sell out. I suppose its just taking the nervous ones out of the framework!

[CJ]

It was a very hyped up IPO, a lot of advertisement etc I can understand how some who thought "owning a brewery" would be better than this and sell out. I suppose its just taking the nervous ones out of the framework!Personally I think the overhyped IPO focused on the 'owning a brewery' rather than financial return so a stagnant shareprice should have been expected. At least until the new facility was built and they proved they could increase sales volumes.

Anyone who went into this for short term gain was mistaken - I assumed everyone bought in expecting a voucher for free beer with every annual report <- bragging rights for the summer BBQ.

[CJ]

Tuatara has just received backing to enable them to go from 1m Litres to 4.5m litres : http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8811918/Investor-taps-into-Tuatara-Brewery

I am not sure how Rangatira reports its different divisions but if it does break it out, this will be interesting to watch going forward to see how it compares to MOA's progress.

[Onthemoney]

Moa has dropped to a new low - $1.10 on very light trading.

Anyone aware of why Moa investors are fleeing the scene?

These guys are spending huge $ as a % of Revenue to get their brand out very risky when the cashflow and $ don't stack up - following the same 'throw a lot of cash at building the brand' approach as 42 below.

[percy]

Tuatara has just received backing to enable them to go from 1m Litres to 4.5m litres : http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8811918/Investor-taps-into-Tuatara-Brewery

I am not sure how Rangatira reports its different divisions but if it does break it out, this will be interesting to watch going forward to see how it compares to MOA's progress.

Rangatira usually gives a commentary on each division in their annual report.
With Rangatira on board I think Tuatara's future should be very solid.Ian Frame [Rangatira's CEO] continues their tradition of having a great CEO.

[Anna Naum]

Rather large downgrade today....stock did not reopen so tomorrow is going to be painful for those owning the name.

[CJ]

Appalling. Stock is going to get murdered. Energy Mad vs Beer Mad. That new factory had better be on time and on budget or they're going to run out of cash and the ability to capital raise!.
Why do they need a new, bigger factory if they can't sell what they've got?

Milford went in heavy on the IPO didn't they? - they maybe losing their touch after riding the DIL wave - hope not as I am in WYN with them.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Why do they need a new, bigger factory if they can't sell what they've got?

They are pretty much at maximum capacity. As far as I'm aware they are brewing 24/7 on a very small system - something that is incredibly inefficient labour wise. I believe they brew 1200L four times a day. It makes much more sense to have a larger brew system and brew once a day, reducing labour by a quarter (no matter the size of each brew, it takes pretty much the same time).

[winner69]

Good timing for this promo

http://www.moabeer.com/2013/08/buy-moa-for-a-chance-to-own-a-bit-of-a-brewery/

10 prizes of 1,000 shares

[winner69]

so not the restraints of a near capacity brewing facility but total overe estimation of how much of the stuff will be drunk.

getting it wrong by 30% is pretty horrendous ... so lets blame the distributor eh

maybe as one poster pointed out it's just too expensive for what it is .... I sort of agree .... even Little Creatures wasn't that expensive.

So now we will see heaps more marketing and promotional activity. That could be interesting as long as they do better than free shares. Look forward to see what marketing guru Ross comes up with

Need to get more punters to convert and become regulars else that new brand new extended brewery isn't going to be too busy.

[CJ]

They are pretty much at maximum capacity. As far as I'm aware they are brewing 24/7 on a very small system - something that is incredibly inefficient labour wise. I believe they brew 1200L four times a day. It makes much more sense to have a larger brew system and brew once a day, reducing labour by a quarter (no matter the size of each brew, it takes pretty much the same time).Well - sales are expected to be down 30% so they can cut out one of those brews.

My comment was a bit tongue in cheek but the point was if you can sell what you have got, a bigger factory isn't going to help. It would be interesting to know if when first commissioned, the larger more modern plant brings down the per unit cost (due to the old one being so inefficient) or whether the fixed costs and excess capacity means they do need to ramp up their sales.

[CJ]

So now we will see heaps more marketing and promotional activity. That could be interesting as long as they do better than free shares. Look forward to see what marketing guru Ross comes up withThis will be interesting. Ross isn't known for turning a profit (not what he was aiming for) but he is for creating and marketing a brand to drive increased sales. Bad news for him if he cant achieve, especially when combined with Ecoya, or should I say Trilogy since hes now having to rely on the 'bolt on' acquisition.

I wonder how they are going at using the Americas Cup to create US sales.

[Dej]

I must admit, I like the concept of breakfast beer, but obviously impractical for most people....

http://www.moabeer.com/variants/#!/moa-breakfast

Question : if the company is giving free shares away, how should existing shareholders value their investment? Just asking...

Just FYI Sparksl I have a friend who works at Moa in the sales and marketing team (obviously doing a great job) and I tried the breakfast beer about a year ago. It is a very odd beer, given you can taste coffee + hops. Wasnt my cup of tea!

[winner69]

how many bottles in 65,000 cases ... the shortfall

[blackcap]

70 cent share price by the end of the day anyone?

[Dej]

70 cent share price by the end of the day anyone?

Thats pretty much halving the IPO price. Milford wouldnt be happy, wonder what their stoploss is!

[Balance]

Thats pretty much halving the IPO price. Milford wouldnt be happy, wonder what their stoploss is!

They will be in there supporting the share price, I suspect.

It is all going to come down to whether they can buy enough to hold the price at a reasonable level - while talking up the future prospects.

Has been done before - Best Corporation and Rakon for a while.

Cannot have their unit holders think they cannot pick another Diligent.

[Balance]

Stoploss? This is a highly illiquid small cap holding doing badly- who'd buy their shares?

Punters who followed Milford in will have one chance to get the hell out today - while there is an attempt, I suspect, at price support.

After that, it can get really ugly.

Look at Ecoya (Trilogy) - those who got out on the trading update on 25 Sept 2012 got out very well at over $1.00.

[Hoop]

TA Target** if the share price falls below $1.10 is 95c....The price is a line in the sand at the 70% probability area its not a support area...TA Target says if MOA falls below 1.10 it has a 70% chance of it reaching 95c.
The 1.10 price is the primary support line for MOA

** TA Target 1.10 ( 125-110 ) = 0.95c

[Balance]

TA Target** if the share price falls below $1.10 is 95c....The price is a line in the sand at the 70% probability area its not a support area...TA Target says if MOA falls below 1.10 it has a 70% chance of it reaching 95c.
The 1.10 price is the primary support line for MOA

** TA Target 1.10 ( 125-110 ) = 0.95c

Sellers piling up at $1.10 - almost inevitable someone will try and get out at $1.00?

[CJ]

Sellers piling up at $1.10 - almost inevitable someone will try and get out at $1.00?Tehre is 15,000 at $1. The question is will any buyers enter and will the current buyers pull out.

[Hoop]

Sellers piling up at $1.10 - almost inevitable someone will try and get out at $1.00?

as I type Balance if the market opened NOW it would be at 100.
so the 110 primary support is a goneburger and it is in technical free fall

[Balance]

as I type Balance if the market opened NOW it would be at 100.
so the 110 primary support is a goneburger and it is in technical free fall

Someone will now go in at 99c, then someone else at 98c etc etc

normally that's how these things happen

[Hoop]

How can you gauge where stops could be in a freefall below primary floor.
Have to apply various forms of TA voodoo...Animal inctincts have been mathematically calculated of sorts....So apply the Fibonacci Extension onto the primary support 1.10 as we have no other reference atm

105 at 61.8% 103 at 50% and 101 at 38.2%

....as the opening seems to be below these numbers we could psychologically put a very tenative temporary assumption that these prices could become the new resistance lines for now...these assumptions would probably change once trading opens and the dust settles.

[trackers]

Pretty bad stuff up, selling 30% lower than estimated whilst in the middle of a huge brewery expansion. What was the point of the IPO again? Oh right I know...

[Hoop]

Someone will now go in at 99c, then someone else at 98c etc etc

normally that's how these things happen

yep ...panic will apply over reason

[CJ]

Someone will now go in at 99c,4000 at 99c.

No change to buyers.
Edit: now 2 more at 99c and 10,000 at 98c. Do we have 97c?
Edit 2: 7,200 at 90c
Edit 3: 1 selling at 89c . still no change to buyer. it is facinating to watch
Edit 4: down to 80c in early trade

[Dej]

Sorry stoploss was the wrong word. I realise that its an illiquid share but wonder what price milford will attempt to get out? I realise noone will buy the shares... But an attempt is better than a complete loss right??

[trackers]

30% down on $14k traded only, damn

[CJ]

Anyone else think this is an over reaction? Any traders out there looking for a quick profit or is this one way too risky??A few buyers entering at 80c from the look of it. [edit: a few nibbling at 86c - Milford pretending to support the price?]

For a normal profit making company, a 30% reduction in turnout would wipe out your profit. Not sure how it works for a company already in losses.

Dangerous for those who decide to have a play

[Balance]

Now at 80c (down 32.2%) ouch!

How many shares do Milford have?

Nothing of significance - 1.8m shares.

Suspect they will try and sell it now as don't look good on their portfolio to have a 'woof woof' in there.

[Balance]

Moa could be the last IPO by the Ross/Baker boys until they prove to the market that 42 Below was no fluke.

Could be a long long time away.

[Hoop]

Moa could be the last IPO by the Ross/Baker boys until they prove to the market that 42 Below was no fluke.

Could be a long long time away.

a paper loss of over $2M today could slow them down...eh Bal

update 80c new support ...there's a possible hanging man with a tail to 80c on the 15minute chart, that could be bullish sign that 80 is it (the bottom for now)....but can you trust these Japanese fellas?

[bull....]

thought i try one so me mate brought one back for me yuk after two sips i took it back and say to the bar tender me mate was confused i actually asked for a macs not this , luckily an understanding barman gave me my macs and i gave him the sewer water

[biker]

so not the restraints of a near capacity brewing facility but total over estimation of how much of the stuff will be drunk.

getting it wrong by 30% is pretty horrendous ... so lets blame the distributor eh

maybe as one poster pointed out it's just too expensive for what it is .... I sort of agree .... even Little Creatures wasn't that expensive.

So now we will see heaps more marketing and promotional activity. That could be interesting as long as they do better than free shares. Look forward to see what marketing guru Ross comes up with

Need to get more punters to convert and become regulars else that new brand new extended brewery isn't going to be too busy.

You can have all the packaging and marketing you like but the product quality must stack up. This isn't vodka Geoff, it's beer, with much more subtlety of flavours and taste and the quality simply doesn't match the price.

[Anna Naum]

Low of 80c now trading $1.05, all over the place.

[FarmerHamilton]

that's what happens with illiquid stocks, one seller or buyer can change everything. those should be a huge "get out" signal to anyone still holding. book losses and run far far away, it is only going to get worse. if you don't believe me, look at the misery MAD and ECO ((TIL) shareholders were and are still subject to...


I bought some first thing at 89c ... currently trying to sell at 104c , take my $600 and run ??

[FarmerHamilton]

Hi moosie ... you think it gets slammed back down 10-15-20% over the rest of the week ?

[biker]

..... but it's going to be a crappy two years on herein.

i assume you mean 'from here on in' ? ;-)

[fungus pudding]

i assume you mean 'from here on in' ? ;-)

Perhaps he means he's on heroin?

[blackcap]

I hope Farmer Hamilton cut his 4000 shares and ran..... :)

[blackcap]

With you on that one moosie... they could fall further tomorrow especially if sentiment is weak. Im surprised how well they have held up today actually but Balance may have been right when he insinuated that Milford et al may be buying to hold the price up in what is an liquid stock.

[Balance]

4703

4704

This is a time parody of current affairs, and not affiliated in any way with Tui's actual advertising campaign.

Good one, STC ...

:) :) :)

[airedale]

With you on that one moosie... they could fall further tomorrow especially if sentiment is weak. Im surprised how well they have held up today actually but Balance may have been right when he insinuated that Milford et al may be buying to hold the price up in what is an liquid stock.

Maybe Milford et al have been buying for another reason.

[Balance]

Maybe Milford et al have been buying for another reason.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10911794

"Ross said the distributor did not have "skill set" required to drive Moa's sales in New Zealand."

I guess that must apply to the Ecoya candles as well? I mean, the distributors have no idea how to sell $50 scented candles?

It's all good, folks - it's all the distributor's fault. They do not know how to sell Moa beers!

[winner69]

So, the international company that distributes 54 brands across 3 continents (http://www.tweglobal.com), including Penfolds "The Grange", Wolf Blass and Matua Valley are incompetent.

I need to mock up another Tui sign.

Didn't they lose/lost track of 35 mill of wine in the US and dumped zillions of litres of the stuff .... maybe there are pallets and pallets of MOA somewhere as well

Gage Rd (brewers) have a relationship with TWE as well ... they don't seem to complain

[Balance]

So, the international company that distributes 54 brands across 3 continents (http://www.tweglobal.com), including Penfolds "The Grange", Wolf Blass and Matua Valley are incompetent.

I need to mock up another Tui sign.

I find it amazing that there are punters who would pay up to $1.00 today after the 30% downgrade!

The EBITDA impact will be magnified, with considerable implications for cash flows and capital raisings.

[stoploss]

In NBR " A new distribution model is being negotiated " lol read this as we are going to discount the hell out of it to do the volume through the supermarket .......( no profit margin then )

[J R Ewing]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10911794

"Ross said the distributor did not have "skill set" required to drive Moa's sales in New Zealand."

I guess that must apply to the Ecoya candles as well? I mean, the distributors have no idea how to sell $50 scented candles?

It's all good, folks - it's all the distributor's fault. They do not know how to sell Moa beers!

Yes, what a lot of nonsense. It's really the shareholders fault for not drinking heavily enough!

[CJ]

Yes, what a lot of nonsense. It's really the shareholders fault for not drinking heavily enough!Their is another article out today (cant remember if NZH or Stuff where the distributor states they have doubled quantity sold so cant understand why they are being blamed.

[blackcap]

This one is going to go down further over the next few weeks I think. I have done no research but to me such a big miss on your first major target is not going to sit well with investors. Revenues static or as predicted with a fall in profit I can live with. But revenues down by 30% from target in a growth company does not bode well. I sincerely hope Farmer Hamilton sold his stake sometime yesterday.

[Fred114]

Milford said they sold some yesterday....still at 0.2% of their fund overall....

[Tony Two Gloves]

This will drive their shareholders to drink thus increasing sales - all good me thinks! (shame their beer doesn't actually taste that great IMHO)

[Hoop]

.....only good for TA analysts and traders from now on.

Rubbish...not enough liquidity with MOA..12M available is miles too low for traders under normal conditions...TA indicators don't function well under low liquidity so the TA analysts don't bother investing in low cap type stocks.

Only during rare opportunities with an extreme situation (high enough liquidity) would the risk is lowered enough to have a quick dabble in these small cap shares .... This rare opportunity presented itself yesterday.

Will this extreme situation happen again with MOA?...maybe but I normally don't touch low liquid stocks because TA analysis is far too unreliable....adding to this is the high risk of having to take a big haircut to sell out if the stock when there are no buyers around.

I would assume most traders and TA would've had their radar focusing in a different direction and would've missed this action yesterday...It was just pure chance I spotted it online in the NZ herald before opening and took advantage of it....

[Balance]

Milford said they sold some yesterday....still at 0.2% of their fund overall....

Rounding error.

[FarmerHamilton]

This one is going to go down further over the next few weeks I think. I have done no research but to me such a big miss on your first major target is not going to sit well with investors. Revenues static or as predicted with a fall in profit I can live with. But revenues down by 30% from target in a growth company does not bode well. I sincerely hope Farmer Hamilton sold his stake sometime yesterday.


Still in there Blackcap ... ( less than 3% of stake I have in SML so not really that serious ). I've been looking at getting into Moa for a while and had a lazy order in GTC at 115 ... didn't even see the downgrade until after 10.00am yesterday so I got filled on my order at 89c . There may be a lesson in there.

Did see the bad result from SKC this a.m. and bought some at $3.89 ( must be something about .89 for me eh ? ) I like buying good stocks on bad news and holding ... Moa is more of a punt but at 89c and with only $5k at stake I will give the company a chance to turn things round and the benefit of the doubt ... for now.

[CJ]

A better bet for boutique beer fans:

http://www.nzbizbuysell.co.nz/29353/brewery-business-for-sale-christchurch

[stoploss]

A better bet for boutique beer fans:

http://www.nzbizbuysell.co.nz/29353/brewery-business-for-sale-christchurch

Is that MOA ?

[janner]

Sorry guys/gals.. A Boutique Brewery ???.. And all on here really wish to make a killing in the market if they are being honest with themselves....

Boutique brewers come and go.. This one has gone in my opinion unless it can increase it's customers..

Nothing to do with distribution.. Nothing to do with " Management "..

CUSTOMERS.......

Far to expensive for my taste..

There are so many tasty BEERs out there ... Cheaper..

[Balance]

Sorry guys/gals.. A Boutique Brewery ???.. And all on here really wish to make a killing in the market if they are being honest with themselves....

Boutique brewers come and go.. This one has gone in my opinion unless it can increase it's customers..

Nothing to do with distribution.. Nothing to do with " Management "..

CUSTOMERS.......

Far to expensive for my taste..

There are so many tasty BEERs out there ... Cheaper..

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10912970

70% of sales in NZ - so the 30% downgrade means that sales in NZ is actually 43% down on forecast.

Moa blaming the distributor is not a good thing - it will now have to develop its own channel, and that is an expensive proposition.

[winner69]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10912970

70% of sales in NZ - so the 30% downgrade means that sales in NZ is actually 43% down on forecast.

Moa blaming the distributor is not a good thing - it will now have to develop its own channel, and that is an expensive proposition.

Holy moly - that's nearly 60,000 cases short ... how many bottles in a case?

So is the moral of this never believe numbers in a prospectus .... esp one with cool looking women in them and slick looking guys in it ..... least they left the naked woman on the horse out

[Heffner]

Disappointing result all round for MOA, I think you will find that the Brand has a very loyal shareholder base that initially has meant the price hasn't dropped to what it could of/should of.

MOA itself is a fine tasting brew, very much a beer from what I have discovered through months of drinking and recommending is most appreciated by big beer drinkers. It is a very strong taste that doesn't appeal to the standard, casual NZ lager drinker.

In regards to the alcohol beverage market, in all honesty I personally dont think taste has little to do with sales, more or less it is 80% down to marketing. Tui is by no way a fine tasting beer however has been brilliantly marketed over the years resulting in the increase of brand recognition and then sales. Shareholders generally put faith in the golden touch of Geoff Ross and his marketing ability which unfortuantely hasn't come to fruition yet. Is this because they have spent too much time marketing the beer overseas and taking the NZ market for granted a tad. I can't remember ever seeing much MOA advertising via the various marketing mediums here in NZ yet I here of numerous large events overseas - i.e. The Pirate Bar in San Francisco for the America's Cup. Have they taken a gamble on making their name overseas at the expense of NZ and thus far hasn't paid off?? Time will tell.....

Good tasting beer at a fair price that isn't executing marketing plans well here in NZ. Not the end of the line yet, but should have been a signal earlier in the year when their marketing manager resigned.....

My thoughts anyway.

[CJ]

MOA itself is a fine tasting brew, very much a beer from what I have discovered through months of drinking and recommending is most appreciated by big beer drinkers. It is a very strong taste that doesn't appeal to the standard, casual NZ lager drinker.
.isnt part of the idea of being a "craft beer drinker" is that you aren't loyal to one brand but sample the full variety that is available, maybe even try to match to food like those uneducated wine snobs etc?

[J R Ewing]

Call me a philistine if you like, but I'll stick to Heineken or Stella - and the odd Guinness

[blackcap]

For some unexplained reason, I happen to really enjoy TUI. Maybe the marketing has worked its magic on me at some subtle unconscious level. But I would rather drink a Tui than any one of these "craft" beers. A Heineken or a Grolsh goes down well too.

[janner]

Not a craft beer drinker but that's food for thought. Another point to consider is that craft beer by its nature isn't sold by volume. By selling craft beer by volume, you become "mainstream".

Maybe Geoff Ross will have a marketing plan for "maincraft" beer - the snob beer that the hoi polloi can drink.

Maybe Geoff Ross has missed the boat on this one.. BEER is a " MANS DRINK " !!....

Should have stuck to Poofy Candles..

Oh !!..

[Ricky99]

I wonder how much of it they try to put through the Koru clubs and places like that. Funny thing is I've never seen anyone in the Koru club touch one, and yet they are the target audience that can afford to pay for it..

[loon]

www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/food-wine/.../Is-Moa-heading-for-extinction‎

[tim23]

How much do they charge for this stuff?

[Hoop]

About $8 a bottle:

http://www.beercellar.co.nz/detail/NZ6TB28V1GH/

Bloody hell !!!!!!!

[winner69]

Bloody hell !!!!!!!

there are some cheaper brews .... and even more expensive ones

That's wholesale .... buy it a bar or restaurant and see the damage .... that's if you can find it

[nextbigthing]

When did Milford get in? Interesting. What do they know that we don't?

[winner69]

Adding insult to injury is all the commentary about how Moa just isn't that special. That will hurt. People won't bother trying if they read all these journos saying "the share sucks, and the beer is not special or elite enough"

This is going to be a depressing place for investors.

Disc - never invested. Never interested.

and the guy who wrote that won an award for being the best beer commentator .... so probably reasonable influential

Maybe Mr Ross didn't give him any free samples and invite him to his launches and he getting his own back.

Whatever this is a pretty powerful message to Ross Moa put itself above the rest. It behaved like a 1980s-style corporate full of brand puffery and put out marketing that was flippant, sexist and arrogant. Then it did silly things like appointing itself some kind of arbiter for what defined craft beer.

Investors don't fret - Ian Botham will save the day. Wonder what his deal was - a dollar amount converted to shares (he get more now) or just a set %age of the company

[JohnnyTheHorse]

No sympathy for those that invested in the IPO - you had to be stupid. All you need to do is compare Moa to Tuatara:

Tuatara (~$14mil value):
- 1 million litres per year
- Very good product
- Extremely good following, particularly in Wellington
- Respected by craft beer community
- Small marketing budget, company is growing by reputation

Moa (~$45mil value at IPO price):
- 1 million litres per year
- Product is generally mediocre. Some of their beers are very good however.
- No brand following
- Generally hated by the craft beer community
- Huge marketing budget driving growth

Despite Moa's big marketing budget, they didn't even have their own stall and had only one tap on at Beervana. It would appear that they don't even care about the NZ market.

Get out while you can.

[Sideshow Bob]

Last time in Auckland Koru Lounge they had it on tap and a fridge full of the stuff. Bet they aren't paying top dollar for it!

[winner69]

Prob free stuff for marketing purposes .... and still 60,000 cases short

[winner69]

When did Milford get in? Interesting. What do they know that we don't?

Milford get in to all these small IPOs. They take a "portfolio" approach - hoping some are real winners offsetting the inevitable duds

Prob know a bit more than the plebs but initially not much more methinks

Just petty cash to them ...more fun than keeping an eye on their large holdings like FBU

What more do they know there?

[nextbigthing]

I see the breakdown of Milford's portfolio here

http://www.milfordasset.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files_mf/activegrowthfundupdateaugust2013.pdf

MOA obviously comes in to the other 25%. Is there any way to see that breakdown without being a client?

They obviously believe the overseas growth has a chance.

Disc don't own MOA but do hold FBU :)

[blackcap]

Why do us retail investors put so much faith in the instos. Ie if Milford et al are in it must be good, or if its so bad why did JP Morgan get in. At the end of the day (to use a cliche) some retail investors are a lot smarter than your average insto. Plenty of "mug instos" out there as well. Just look at the returns that fund managers tend to achieve overall.

[Balance]

Why do us retail investors put so much faith in the instos. Ie if Milford et al are in it must be good, or if its so bad why did JP Morgan get in. At the end of the day (to use a cliche) some retail investors are a lot smarter than your average insto. Plenty of "mug instos" out there as well. Just look at the returns that fund managers tend to achieve overall.

Exactly - Vanguard Group (over US$2 trillion of funds under management) did research which conclusively showed that individual fund managers may outperform the index from time to time, but over the long haul (5 to 10 years), their returns always trend back to index.

[nextbigthing]

Why do us retail investors put so much faith in the instos. Ie if Milford et al are in it must be good, or if its so bad why did JP Morgan get in. At the end of the day (to use a cliche) some retail investors are a lot smarter than your average insto. Plenty of "mug instos" out there as well. Just look at the returns that fund managers tend to achieve overall.

They have the ability to drive the price so I think its important to know what they're up to.

NBT

[Schrodinger]

Anyone have or know of what happened to 42 below in its first few years?

[blackcap]

Anyone have or know of what happened to 42 below in its first few years?

"42 Below undertook an IPO in September 2003 issuing 31 million shares at $0.50 raising $15.5 million (every 3 shares purchased in the IPO was accompanied by 1 warrant with an exercise price of $0.50 available for exercise during October 2005). The issue price of $0.50 implied a post-money valuation of $60.5 million. At the time of listing 42 Below had negative earnings.

Post the IPO 42 Below traded significantly below the IPO price of $0.50 and remained below $0.50 for the majority of the first year it was listed. In the year ending 31 March 2004 42 Below had operating revenues of $4.41 million and an operating deficit of $1.125 million. This is to be expected from a company such as 42 Below that is developing products, expanding into new markets and building a brand.

42 Below continued to grow sales and in the 2005 financial year had operating revenues of $12.58 million producing an operating deficit of $5.22 million. A key driver of revenue growth in the 2005 year was increased sales in the U.S.. During the 2005 calendar year 42 Below consistently traded above $0.50 and at times over $0.80. In 2005 42 Below engaged Macquarie to advise on strategic issues surrounding development of international opportunities, the Bacardi offer arose as a result of this process.

In the 2006 financial year 42 Below continued to exhibit strong revenue growth increasing operating revenue to $17.0 million and improving the operating deficit to $2.8 million. A key contributor to these improved results was a foreign exchange gain of approximately $1.2 million.

After being listed for 2 1/2 years and nearly 4 full years of financial reporting 42 Below had grown revenues to approximately $17 million, established a strong brand in the New Zealand market for premium spirits and had grown sales in the U.S. to over $6 million in 2006. Despite this 42 Below was still not profitable. Although 42 Below were growing revenues, these revenues were spread across geographical segments (primarily New Zealand and the United States). Based on management forecasts for the 2007 financial year 42 Below was expecting trading revenues to grow to $18.2 and EBIT of ($4.9) million [compared to ($3.7) million in 2006].

On 27 September 2006 Bacardi made a full takeover offer for 42 Below at a price of $0.77. The day prior to the offer 42 Below closed at $0.57 and had traded at a volume weighted average price of $0.55 in the 6 months prior to the offer. Valuecruncher has discussed the framework required to evaluate the Bacardi offer in a previous post."

[CJ]

Anyone have or know of what happened to 42 below in its first few years?While it did make continual losses, this was planned (much like Xero now).

It didn't miss sales targets.

[winner69]

And Milford no longer have a substantial holding.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/MOA/announcements/239872


So they disclosed they sold 45 thou sharechat...that's all they had to disclose

Wonder how many more they sold ..... To be consistent MOA became too risky for their clients so hopefully the lot

[CJ]

And Milford no longer have a substantial holding.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/MOA/announcements/239872My maths aren't good but they have gone from 1.8m shares to 1.485m shares, yet only disclose selling 45k shares. Shouldn't they be disclosing at least 315k sold?

[winner69]

My maths aren't good but they have gone from 1.8m shares to 1.485m shares, yet only disclose selling 45k shares. Shouldn't they be disclosing at least 315k sold?

Think they only need to disclose the actual sale that took them below the 5%

But then again you would think that they would then say they only had that reduced number eh

Maybe they did sell 315k The others at a lower price than the 45k and were trying to hide that loss

[winner69]

Think they only need to disclose the actual sale that took them below the 5%

But then again you would think that they would then say they only had that reduced number eh

Maybe they did sell 315k The others at a lower price than the 45k and were trying to hide that loss

Note this line on the Ann

. Following the above trade Milford Asset Management ceased to be a substantial share holder.

And the words THE ABOVE TRADE

[Schrodinger]

Wow, sell sell sell! Any price weakness in a stock and they are just selling! I don't blame them for Moa though, terrible idea even to begin with investing in them. Guess they'll be going out to buy more BFW now!

Anyone remember the original Steinlager. Trashy, ****ty tasting export beer that was a hit outside NZ?

So bad they had to rebrand it to Steinlager Pure to get the locals to drink it..

[CJ]

Note this line on the Ann

. Following the above trade Milford Asset Management ceased to be a substantial share holder.

And the words THE ABOVE TRADEThats not it. Selling 45k onlyl takes them down to 5.8%

They need to sell the full 315k to take them down to 5.92%.

[macduffy]

Anyone remember the original Steinlager. Trashy, ****ty tasting export beer that was a hit outside NZ?

So bad they had to rebrand it to Steinlager Pure to get the locals to drink it..

That doesn't accord with my early memories of Steinlager. As I recall, it was a big hit with the yuppies of that era who had been brought up on 6 o'clock closing, draught beer by the jug and the likes of Lion Red (and Brown), DB, Champion, Wards, Speights etc - in big bottles. Not a huge selection there and very little, expensive, imported brews available. But then, I might just be looking at those times through rose coloured taste buds!

[winner69]

Thats not it. Selling 45k onlyl takes them down to 5.8%

They need to sell the full 315k to take them down to 5.92%.

Maybe the 475k was the last trade then

Then again I have seen some ssh notices that list every trade in the time period between announcements

[born2invest]

MOA was always a gamble on the reputation of the Geoff Ross though wasn't it?

If he could do it with vodka then why not with beer?

Unfortunately they are two different products in very different markets with completely different consumers.

[Balance]

MOA was always a gamble on the reputation of the Geoff Ross though wasn't it?

If he could do it with vodka then why not with beer?

Unfortunately they are two different products in very different markets with completely different consumers.

What reputation?

To earn around 15% pa on private equity type deal for those who put money into 42 Below?

More like reputation to make money for himself and his mates, using other peoples' monies.

[blackcap]

why do ppl seem to think that FTB was such a great success. IT was average at best and if it wasnt Bacardi that came and bailed them out for far too much that would have been a pile of poo as well.

[CJ]

If he could do it with vodka then why not with beer?The return on 42B didn't really justify the risk. XRO has a similar strategy (growth at the expense of profit) so look at the returns those shareholders got to see what I am talking about.

I also think Craft beer is a harder sell. Beer traditionally isn't a premium product. Those who treat it as a premium product (crafties) like to try different varieties, not stay loyal to one brand.

[tim23]

$8.00 per bottle thanks moosie - its only beer!. Sounds like a bit of a fad to me, I know 42 Below had premium priced products but not to that extent!

[whirly]

http://www.moabeer.com/2013/08/buy-moa-for-a-chance-to-own-a-bit-of-a-brewery/

Giving them away:cool:

[Balance]

St Brian Gaynor has torn into Moa at their AGM.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11111669

They won't like it up 'em sah - as Corporal Jones would say.

Big loss of face for Brian Gaynor as Milford invested into Ecoya and Moa, seemingly on the back of 42 Below.

But was 42 Below really such a huge success?

For Geoff Ross and Grant Baker, of course - turned them into legends as they made tens of millions of dollars from bugger all.

For investors who put in 50c in Oct 2003 to be taken out in Nov 2006 at 77c, it represented a return of 15.5% pa. Hardly worth that it was start up private equity type risk and when you further consider Ross and Baker put in 5% of the $$$ to get 60% of the company.

Anyway, let's wish them well as NZ needs new companies which harness the creative juices of Kiwis.

Me thinkth Ross and Baker days of raising funds for IPOs on the back of 42 Below are now over - Ecoya was not good but Moa is just plain bad.

And of course, just for you STC, Milford thought that Diligent was simply too risky for their clients to be invested in now! Meanwhile, they lost sight of the Moa while breathing in the scented vapors from one of the Ecoya candles? :D

[Balance]

ouch. too bad he didn't more due diligence on moa before buying. shame gaynor, shame...

Buying on Ross's 42 Below track record - that's the due diligence.

[winner69]

So consensus is that MOA will not do a Little World Breweries (Little Creatures) trick and make shareholders rich.

Had my LWB cash at the time but MOA didn't excite me on little bit

Maybe back to Gage Rd then

[winner69]

MOA CONFIRMS IT IS ON TRACK FOR THIS YEAR'S SALES NUMBER they said in March

OK managed that .... well only a few months to go wasn't it

Forecast 2014 is 130,000 cases .... hey that's almost as much as 2013 .... growth ZERO

Maybe the story unfolds 2015

[CJ]

So consensus is that MOA will not do a Little World Breweries (Little Creatures) trick and make shareholders rich.MOA has made the original shareholders rich. It is just those that bought in at the IPO or subsequent that aren't.

[Balance]

MOA CONFIRMS IT IS ON TRACK FOR THIS YEAR'S SALES NUMBER they said in March

OK managed that .... well only a few months to go wasn't it

Forecast 2014 is 130,000 cases .... hey that's almost as much as 2013 .... growth ZERO

Maybe the story unfolds 2015

2013 numbers in the bag when they IPOed.

That's how these things work.

[iceman]

Gaynor's comments regarding Moa's marketing issues hold true in my opinion. They are in a bit of a no-mans land when appealing to NZ drinkers. I think I've tried a Moa beer before, but if I felt like something a bit more interesting than a Heineken or major brand, it's easier to find a Monteiths (I acknowledge Monteiths are going mainstream, but I think their beers are interesting and easy to drink).

We have a craft beer industry here in Nelson and several pubs that sell only craft beer. They are popular by quite a significant section of the population here, mainly being young and middle aged trendy people. I visit some of those pubs on occasion and have been looking out for Moa. Yes you see their beers in some of the pubs but they are very low profile and don't appear to be big sellers. So I think Gaynor is absolutely right that just bringing the marketing in-house will not on its own solve their problems.

[Balance]

Heading down to 60 cents by the time Milford finishes their selling ....

[blackcap]

Oh to be able to short this stock and beat Milford to it ;) :P

[Balance]

75 cents today and still no bottom in sight.

Likewise, Ross's other creation, Ecoya, is trying to hang on to 73 cents.

Looks like Milford wants out of both?

Don't want those ugly red negatives in their investment portfolio next reporting date?

[blackcap]

Looks like it Balance. Its quite sad really to see the demise of this company but I know if I had some I would be selling out before the price reaches 60 or dare I say it 50 cents if the status quo re sales and profitability remain. Its so easy to spot Milford drip feeding their shares but having to go lower and lower to get the volume they want out. I hope Farmer Hamilton has cut his losses because I only see one direction for this firm.

[Balance]

Looks like it Balance. Its quite sad really to see the demise of this company but I know if I had some I would be selling out before the price reaches 60 or dare I say it 50 cents if the status quo re sales and profitability remain. Its so easy to spot Milford drip feeding their shares but having to go lower and lower to get the volume they want out. I hope Farmer Hamilton has cut his losses because I only see one direction for this firm.

Looks like 70 cents today - a train wreck in slow motion?

[CJ]

Anyone in for the dead cat bounce back up to 80 cents? She's looking ripe for a furry fly through the air with claws out! ;)Moas maybe able to jump, but they cant fly. It will keep continue to come crashing down.

[janner]

Well well, the Business Bakery boys are doubling down and buying up the Milford sell down. Interesting...

Not interesting moosie.. Who else would by them ??

[blackcap]

Agree with janner here. Its not intersting at all. It's pretty much the only option they have left to try and instill some confidence in the company and keep the shareprice at near respectable levels. Hoping to get more punters to buy this way is the strategy I think but I do not think it will work.

[Balance]

Agree with janner here. Its not intersting at all. It's pretty much the only option they have left to try and instill some confidence in the company and keep the shareprice at near respectable levels. Hoping to get more punters to buy this way is the strategy I think but I do not think it will work.

50,000 shares a piece - will need them to buy 500,000 shares each to convince anyone with any perspective - considering they got their original shares at bugger all compared to the 'new' investors.

And certainly not after their other invention, Ecoya or whatever it is called these days, has dropped below 70 cents.

Looks like Milford is on the way out of all of their involvement with the Bakery boys?

Their buns have been charred?

[blackcap]

There is no way IMHO they would buy 500,000.... that would be throwing good money after bad surely?
I can see a steady decline for this stock. But having founders purchase shares may make some ppl think that they still have faith in the company. Those more experienced with markets may take a different view and see between the lines.

[Balance]

There is no way IMHO they would buy 500,000.. that would take up too much of their CASH. Something they seem to avoid using to purchase shares I have noticed ;)

In their shoes, none of us would realistically do any different?

If the punters out there, including 'highly regarded' investors like Milford, are prepared to shell out cash for the Bakery boys' ideas, then all power to them.

Trouble is that it's all based upon one success - 42 Below - and that was not such a great return really for original shareholders.

Let's hope they deliver on Ecoya and Moa - we need people in NZ who can turn ideas into jobs etc.

[blackcap]

No we wouldnt do any different. Agreed. Balance, you forgot DPC, that is a success story for them, the company seems to be thriving. I did not like its valuation at the 30 cent mark but any lower and they will be worth a punt. So its not all doom and gloom. Moa is probably a good enough business... just not at those share prices. The fact a stock is "overvalued" does not change the nature of the business.

[CJ]

The business bakery owns over 20% so I can see how they can increase their holdings significantly anyway without making a takeover offer.

[winner69]

Shane Warne to be the next ambassador shareholder after Botham

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11118738

I'd prefer Liz myself


And for Moa would David Boon be better

[boofters]

just had 2 decide at foodstuff outlet between 4 MOA for 15 or 6 founders for 15.

Founders won hands down on packaging and IMO --> taste...

Long way to go before this puppy recovers

[winner69]

just had 2 decide at foodstuff outlet between 4 MOA for 15 or 6 founders for 15.

Founders won hands down on packaging and IMO --> taste...

Long way to go before this puppy recovers

Easy choice eh

[winner69]

Should have ago at this if you time to waste
http://foundersbrewery.co.nz/Family/Join

[FarmerHamilton]

Easy choice eh

Buyers having to pay up today with the sell side looking decidedly thin ... interesting turnaround .

Disc; hold 4285 MOA @ 89c

[winner69]

Dead cat bounce FH as noted a week ago. You need to exit pronto before that multi-year low starts going back down its channel. This high is going to set the peak for the channel. Forecast is for 80 cents, so if you don't want to be holding for years and putting those shares in the bottom drawer and wishing you had never bought, I suggest anything above 80 cents to sell at is a bargain...

Right thread moosie?

Sounds like it should be on the DIL thread?

Sorry couldn't resist that

[FarmerHamilton]

nah matey, that's the channel of iniquity and doom. at least this kitten has a bounce. right thread ;)

MOA is 0.63% of my NZ/AUS portfolio ... can afford to give them then benefit of the doubt ... no sleep being lost just yet !!

[janner]

MOA is 0.63% of my NZ/AUS portfolio ... can afford to give them then benefit of the doubt ... no sleep being lost just yet !!


As a farmer FH you should appreciate that it is no good flogging a dead horse.. IMHO.. 0.63% or not..

[FarmerHamilton]

As a farmer FH you should appreciate that it is no good flogging a dead horse.. IMHO.. 0.63% or not..

Bad limp .... not dead yet.

[janner]

Even such an optimist as Topol had to give up in the end with his limping horse.. Oye vey !!..

[winner69]

Brewery upgrade probably delayed

The boody French operated vineyard down that way taking it to the environment court .....can't have craft brewers denigrating a wine growing region

[stoploss]

Brewery upgrade probably delayed

The boody French operated vineyard down that way taking it to the environment court .....can't have craft brewers denigrating a wine growing region

The French have always cared immensely about the environment. So much so that they decided to conduct the absolutely safe nuclear testing in our neck of the woods instead of the Camargue.....lol

[winner69]

Even Environment Court hearings can drag out a while ...ESP if one party has plenty of dosh

Shame you don.t like 'finally something drinkable out of Marlborouh' as Josh tells us

Agree with your 'taster notes' ....prob the after taste ruined the cider as well

[janner]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11119946

Not good news for Moa.

I rate Louis Vuitton Moet and Hennessey's ability to outspend Moa on resource consents here. Will Moa be able to grow its cash if its unable to deliver on a new brewery that improves its abilities to produce? Even with an 12-18 month delay, what might happen?

Was in the Wellington koru Lounge today. Tried a Moa Pale Ale. Was revolting I'm sorry to say. My travelling companion thought likewise. Weka Cider (by Moa) was better.


Edit: I note on re-reading the article that Moa were granted the resource consent, but that LVMH and others are appealing. Obviously better news, but still a nuisance.

Had a glance at the prospectus.. Did not raise any interest.. Still does not..

On a more happy note.. I still have my original RED SOCKS.. Will be wearing them on every sailing competition day..

[iceman]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11119946

Not good news for Moa.

I rate Louis Vuitton Moet and Hennessey's ability to outspend Moa on resource consents here. Will Moa be able to grow its cash if its unable to deliver on a new brewery that improves its abilities to produce? Even with an 12-18 month delay, what might happen?

Was in the Wellington koru Lounge today. Tried a Moa Pale Ale. Was revolting I'm sorry to say. My travelling companion thought likewise. Weka Cider (by Moa) was better.


Edit: I note on re-reading the article that Moa were granted the resource consent, but that LVMH and others are appealing. Obviously better news, but still a nuisance.


I thought this was an interesting comment from Ross : "It reeks of French wine snobbery. I don't have problem with foreign ownership but I do with foreign control."

I thought he sold 42 Below to full foreign ownership and control (Bacardi) but I suppose the buyers spoke Spanish, not French, so probably OK in his books.
BTW, I think Ross did great with selling 42 Below but find the above comment from him somewhat ridiculous !

[Scottman]

Anyone see the interesting full page add in the morning paper. Can't remember the exact heading. Something like "DOES ANYONE KNOW WHO OWNS TUI?"

[Baaarney]

They have also posted it on their facebook page (hopefully its legible) http://www.facebook.com/MOABEER

4792

[Billy Boy]

Brewery upgrade probably delayed

The boody French operated vineyard down that way taking it to the environment court .....can't have craft brewers denigrating a wine growing region
The Frogs are just Kit Flying... Should the E/court agree with them, then:-
God Help The Future.... No hen farms in sheep country, No Deer farms in Cow Land.
Sheep must leave Southland, And worse still !!! Gone are the "Home Brewers" from Northland,
Coz thats "Happy Cabbage Land"
Geeeeez Wayne
BB

[winner69]

Tui should respond with :

Show us a happy Moa Investor.

Tui - since 1889. And for a lot longer yet.

The original GUI bill boosted was quite good

My shout, I got shares in Moa beer

[janner]

The original GUI bill boosted was quite good

My shout, I got shares in Moa beer

Very civil of you winner.. But thanks, no Moa for me :-))

[EyeSpy]

Medium-term lurker, first-time poster.

There's been a few comments on this thread about the quality/taste of Moa's beer. The issue, IMO, is that it is produced with a "craft-beer" type of flavour, which is much more intense than most beer drinkers are used to drinking. The IPA that Sparky tried is probably far more heavily hopped than he's used to. To my taste, Moa produces a far nicer beer than a generic NZ draught like Tui. Unfortunately for Moa, most NZ beer drinkers prefer a more easily gluggable brew.

The difficulties in making it work as a business are, as others have said:
1. Limited market of beer drinkers who both like craft-style beers and are prepared to pay a premium for them
2. This limited number of craft beer drinkers are pretty educated about what they drink. They like the notion of a genuinely small brewery producing a quality product. They're not going to be fooled that Moa is a micro-brewery run by 3 bearded beer nerds fooling around in a shed. It has less appeal as a concept. Craft beer enthusiasts are unlikely to jump on board the Moa train precisely because it is a bigger-scale, highly marketed business - witness the silliness when Lion bought the highly-regarded Emersons brewery.

So it's rather stuck with a flavour that doesn't appeal to the masses, and a brand that won't appeal to the beer geeks. Add to that the apparently poor execution of the basics like distribution and there are a few issues here.

Disc: Mild beer geek, not a holder. Learning a lot on this board - thanks.

[bmrm]

Medium-term lurker, first-time poster.

They're not going to be fooled that Moa is a micro-brewery run by 3 bearded beer nerds fooling around in a shed.


Extremely well put.

I think Moa have conflated 'craft' with 'luxury'. Geoff Ross pulled it off with vodka (vodka being a marketers dream: a flavourless commodity), but beer drinkers have broad tastes and/or are too price sensitive. I don't go for the cheapest swill, but I do tend to go for whatever craft IPA is on special.

Luxury wines exist, but they all tend to have centuries of history going for them (and no one celebrates with a nice doz over a bottle of champagne).

Disc: Don't own, never been tempted to buy, the fundamentals have always looked so off.

[janner]

Extremely well put.

I think Moa have conflated 'craft' with 'luxury'. Geoff Ross pulled it off with vodka (vodka being a marketers dream: a flavourless commodity), but beer drinkers have broad tastes and/or are too price sensitive. I don't go for the cheapest swill, but I do tend to go for whatever craft IPA is on special.

Luxury wines exist, but they all tend to have centuries of history going for them (and no one celebrates with a nice doz over a bottle of champagne).

Disc: Don't own, never been tempted to buy, the fundamentals have always looked so off.


Agree.. Wrong product.. Aimed at the wrong people.. At the wrong price...

Hasta la vista Baby.. !!..

[bunter]

Looks like the turd-polishers at Moa have agreed to donate a small part of their float gains to propping up the share price - Baker Ross and Styris all bought small parcels on September 5th.
Tell me that's a coincidence.
They obviously think their investors are pretty naive.
Maybe they're right.

[FarmerHamilton]

Looks like the turd-polishers at Moa have agreed to donate a small part of their float gains to propping up the share price - Baker Ross and Styris all bought small parcels on September 5th.
Tell me that's a coincidence.
They obviously think their investors are pretty naive.
Maybe they're right.


The contrarian investor in me tells me that this stock is SO HATED that it is probably a screaming buy and I should double down from my purchase at 89c ...

Stock looks well supported with the sell-side looking a little thin up to 95c and little selling pressure recently.:cool:

[blackcap]

Stock looks well supported with the sell-side looking a little thin up to 95c and little selling pressure recently.:cool:

Depth is an illusion that can pull in newbies. Depth can and often is "manipulated (legally)" to draw in punters.

[bunter]

they obviously think their investors are pretty naive.


...i should double down from my purchase at 89c ... Stock looks well supported.:cool:

qed ..............

[winner69]

All back on track. The stuff to fly off the shelves now. Nice

So the money is in the space between real craft beer and the likes of Heineken and Stella. Moa Original the saviour

Ross says "All those American craft beers that have gone on to be really big like Sierra Nevada, Samuel Adams, Anchor Steam, New Belgium, Little Creatures in Australia, all their volume has come from beers that they've put around here," he says, circling the point between craft and premium, "so we think the sweet spot for volume is there in the crossover premium craft market."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9299297/Recovering-lost-ground-Moas-priority

So he wants to become another little creatures .... LWB was a great investment for me ....don't think Moa fits that bill ....god luck to them anyway

[PartyPooper]

As a 2IC Alcohol manager something has changed we used to order MOA and it would take forever to get some. Had 3 boxes come in yesterday (ordered day before) and all were gone by the end of the day. Almost makes me want to grab a small holding.

[winner69]

Update says all on track now ...big losses coming but what the heck

[Balance]

Yawn.

They were warned.

just like with Snakk.

[winner69]

One would have to say Australia must be a huge growth opportunity for MOA

Wonder how much they can grow on the H2 revenues of $79,000 ......yep $79,000 ...how many bottles is that in the lucky country

[Harvey Specter]

One would have to say Australia must be a huge growth opportunity for MOAWhy. Its not all XXXX over there. I am sure they have some premium brews of their own and with most things, Ozzies would frown upon anything kiwi unless they can claim it as their own.

Maybe they should relabel it Emu for the Australian market - genius. Geof Ross step aside

[J R Ewing]

Why. Its not all XXXX over there. I am sure they have some premium brews of their own and with most things, Ozzies would frown upon anything kiwi unless they can claim it as their own.

Maybe they should relabel it Emu for the Australian market - genius. Geof Ross step aside

Did you not detect the sarcasm? 200% growth would equate to... 3x sweet FA

[winner69]

Why. Its not all XXXX over there. I am sure they have some premium brews of their own and with most things, Ozzies would frown upon anything kiwi unless they can claim it as their own.

Maybe they should relabel it Emu for the Australian market - genius. Geof Ross step aside

Here's a real 'craft' beer out of Melbourne. A fantastic story and good beer

Doss Blockos

[Balance]

Amazing how the directors and management write their results report like the loss and the disastrous performance against prospectus forecast is like the faults of everybody else's?

Reminds me of their mate, Brent King, and his blame of everyone else for the problems with Viking's investments.

The previous New Zealand distributor arrangement ceased 1 October 2013 and Moa assumed
responsibility for its own sales initiatives for the New Zealand market. The October performance was
particularly strong for New Zealand and a good order book into November supports the revised sales
volume projection.
As signalled, gross margin performance was particularly low at $0.2 million, resulting from too much
emphasis on lower margin products, unrealised economies of scale and the effects of distribution
transition.

[Balance]

Tried to look through the AR for some light and came across this gem of high alert for investors :

Loans to Directors
As contemplated in its Investment
Statement dated 11 October 2012,
Moa Brewing Company Limited has
provided limited recourse loans to the
independent directors and Geoff Ross,
as Chief Executive Officer, to enable
them to subscribe for redeemable
shares at the Offer Price of $1.25 per
share. The independent directors each
subscribed for redeemable shares
having an aggregate issue price of
$200,000, and Geoff Ross, through the
Business Bakery LP, subscribed for
shares having an aggregate issue price
of $1,140,000. The loans do not bear
interest, and are repayable after three
years or earlier at the discretion of the
director. The loans are non-recourse
against the borrowing directors, but
will be secured against the relevant
redeemable shares held by or on
behalf of the directors and which were
acquired with the loan proceeds.
The redeemable shares and related
non-recourse loans in respect of the
above incentive package were issued
on 11 March 2013.
As at 31 March 2013, no cash has
been exchanged in relation to
this transaction.

[J R Ewing]

What a strange way to issue $1.25 options. What say the shares are worth $1 after 3 years? Do the directors then have the option to repay only 80% of the loan and keep the shares? And if they don't pay back any of the loan then does the company write off the loans, take back the shares and cancel them? And what about any dividends in the meantime? It could look very messy to say the least. Why not just issue options, that seems to be the standard way to have directors motivated and their interests aligned with those of shareholders - without the need for them to put any capital at risk of course!

[Balance]

What a strange way to issue $1.25 options. What say the shares are worth $1 after 3 years? Do the directors then have the option to repay only 80% of the loan and keep the shares? And if they don't pay back any of the loan then does the company write off the loans, take back the shares and cancel them? And what about any dividends in the meantime? It could look very messy to say the least. Why not just issue options, that seems to be the standard way to have directors motivated and their interests aligned with those of shareholders - without the need for them to put any capital at risk of course!

Allows the directors to say they have 'skin in the game'?

But not real skin in the game as the loans are interest free and non-recourse - heads they win, tails the company and other shareholders lose.

Excerpt from AGM : "I’d also like to reiterate the personal commitment of Geoff and myself to the
business. As you may be aware, our investment vehicle, The Business Bakery has
a large holding in Moa and we have invested more than $2.6m of our own funds,
so we are not like many company managers or officers who don’t have skin in
the game."

[Harvey Specter]

Tried to look through the AR for some light and came across this gem of high alert for investors :I think this has been pointed out earlier. Given the redeemable shares are out of the money so to speak, dont expect the loans to be paid back in full unless the company redeems the shares in full (lucky for some isn't it). There is no recourse against the holders of the loans other than security over the shares.

[Balance]

one rule for us, another for the plebs? seems an even sweeter deal than MAD directors were given regarding loans and share purchases. look how much that did for the SP!

Does it not remind you of Snakk?

Save Snakk is a backdoor job - so even worse!

[Harvey Specter]

Does it not remind you of Snakk?

Save Snakk is a backdoor job - so even worse!Is a backdoor job really worse when the promoters distract potential investors with magazine style ads in the prospectus and use terms like limited recourse loans which M&D investors (if they really exist) don't really understand but use to make the situation look better than it actually is (ie. thinking the promoters had put cold hard cash on the line).

At least Snakk is on the NZAX, so acknowledged to be riskier, and everyone who did their DD knew that shares were issued cheaply in the past.

[Balance]

All time low of 62 cents today but ..

Promotors, directors and 'key' personnel who provided consultancy and management services to Moa paid themselves $1.39m in fees and benefits in the last 18 months!

They will be breathing in the vapors of the $65 scented candles from Ecoya as they think of the disappointed shareholders?

[bull....]

yes the 42 below success doesnt seem to be rubbing of on either of the current businesses, still time I guess to show improvement, but current prices suggest market doesnt hold much hope on either

[blackcap]

All time low of 62 cents today but ..

Promotors, directors and 'key' personnel who provided consultancy and management services to Moa paid themselves $1.39m in fees and benefits in the last 18 months!

They will be breathing in the vapors of the $65 scented candles from Ecoya as they think of the disappointed shareholders?

Thats a lot for a company with a market cap of $18.6 million. That is close to 7.5% of the market cap in fees and benefits. Wow!, they certainly are doing well :P

[Balance]

Thats a lot for a company with a market cap of $18.6 million. That is close to 7.5% of the market cap in fees and benefits. Wow!, they certainly are doing well :P

never trust a marketing spin artist.

[jonu]

Turning point for Moa? End of spin and finally some runs on the board? No more sticky wicket?

Maybe the guy who ate all the pies can drink all the beers, although Liz has trimmed him down somewhat. She must be voracious.

Nice nudge through mid wicket in the sp anyway.

[Harvey Specter]

End of spin and finally some runs on the board? No more sticky wicket?Seems to be a pretty cleaver deal. Only targeting Australians (to make them forget they are buying a Kiwi beer) and no cash up front, just a share of sales meaning he has a vested interest to push it (or could just stop if he sees no return).

[biker]

MOA pretty quiet on this forum of late. Although I don't inherently like investing in companies that push booze, having recently developed some experience and liking of craft beers, I like the idea of drinking much less quantity but much better quality. Not saying MOA is the best beer around but the concept I think is good.
Even with reservations about Baker and Ross, and recourse loans and an RMA appeal and knowing Milford's legitimate gripes, I think at around 65c MOA's risk/reward is in my ball park, so I'm in at these levels.
(Yes, Balance, et al, I know, I know!)

[silverblizzard888]

Well they have a product you could call world class (based on their awards in beating other breweries overseas). Given they have established some products, the next step is actually distributing the beer properly, haven't been entirely impressed with how distribution goes. They seem to have the range of premium Moa's in New World, but only sell the original at Countdown and haven't seen it in Pak'n'save (could be there though haven't seen it). You could say its a beer for the upper market but I'm sure people who shop at Countdown would buy them if they were their. Since people usually choose to base their shopping on certain supermarkets by missing out a place like Countdown could possibly miss a third of the market. They complain how Moa original is very low margin and that they suffer in that course, but they gotta look at themselves and see that if they are only going to stock Moa Original at Countdown and its likely same with other places to then its not gone sit well with sales and profits. Its how I see it anyway and this is recent after they have said months ago that they have overhauled the distribution system.

Thats for Christchurch anyway, it could be different in other places.

[milt1968]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9880209/Brewer-gets-please-explain-from-NZX

Thoughts?

[Xerof]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9880209/Brewer-gets-please-explain-from-NZX

Thoughts?

I might have a couple on the way to the rugby this evening :t_up: - should be a good game

[winner69]

I might have a couple on the way to the rugby this evening :t_up: - should be a good game

GO THE CANES ....might just be one of their nights, one of not too many

[Balance]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9880209/Brewer-gets-please-explain-from-NZX

Thoughts?

Capital raising on the way, I would say.

[silu]

I would never invest in this as I know more people who embargo Moa beer than Moa drinkers. Never a good sign.

[shonen knife]

I've seen a few of these "are you complying with Listing Rule 10.1.1" letters recently and the answer is always a very short "Yes we are complying". Wonder what the point is really.

[Xerof]

GO THE CANES ....might just be one of their nights, one of not too many

great game Winner, the CANES deserved the win - fantastic last try, in fact all the tries were stunning to watch

actually, ended up with a spare seat which someone in CHCH could have had if I'd thought about it earlier - next time I'll call for takers

sorry MOA - drank HEINEKIN and TUI all night, followed by a 2012 AWATEA

[Xerof]

we did a vertical tasting a couple of weeks ago of 2006, 2008 and 2012 (my mate had quaffed all the 2010) and we all thought the 2012 was better than the earlier two. I used to religiously buy six of his Coleraine to cellar each release, but have moved on from wine collecting, as I drank it all :p

For a Buck wine the Awatea is a good option, especially in years when there is no Coleraine (if he doesn't produce a Coleraine, those grapes end up in the Awatea)

I actually prefer Bullnose when I can get it but thats a personal preference. I used to live within 3km of Te Mata's cellar so it was easy to get in those days

[Hawkeye]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/moa-shares-soar-after-meeting-sales-guidance-bd-154294

[arnies]

I picked up a few today. I personally think its still undervalued

Based on potential, not on current sales. I except them to announce they've met their targets, but lower revenue than expected.
Still, they're picking up market share which is great

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I picked up a few today. I personally think its still undervalued

Based on potential, not on current sales. I except them to announce they've met their targets, but lower revenue than expected.
Still, they're picking up market share which is great

Still well overvalued. They have lowered their prices to sell more, but their margins are VERY VERY small. A large proportion of their target market dislikes them quite profoundly due to their marketing. Not hard for them to increase market share when the market is growing so quickly and they are discounting so much. They have some very good beers (Imperial Stout is great), but they also have some very average beers (which quite frankly isn't really acceptable in this industry if you want to make it big). They are having major issues with capacity, which has lead them to contract brewing elsewhere (theres those margins getting even smaller). I'm not sure if they still are (I assume they are), but they were brewing 24/7 - four ~1000L batches per day. It takes the same amount of time to brew 10,000L as it does 1000L, so they are wasting so much in labour costs... so they need larger equipment very soon (probably 1-2 years ago actually).

Emerson's, which had a very good reputation in the industry and was one of the craft brewing pioneers in NZ was sold to Lion for between $15-$20mil. I would say that they were selling more than Moa and not losing millions of dollars a year. Food for thought eh?

[arnies]

I disagree and although I do agree with you that low margins and capacity are big problems I can see people jumping back on board their stock in the next 6 months. As they mentioned in their last report, they've moved significantly away from the super premium low-margin beers and more towards the higher margin 12 pack supermarket style beers.

MOA share price was the lowest it's been at closing yesterday. 65% lower than the day before their earnings expectation announcement last August. Thats quite a big drop for only a 30% sale volume shortfall. Obviously it will be interesting to see what their margins were, especially with all the contract brewing but I don't think their outlook is a bleak as many have been made to believe.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I disagree and although I do agree with you that low margins and capacity are big problems I can see people jumping back on board their stock in the next 6 months. As they mentioned in their last report, they've moved significantly away from the super premium low-margin beers and more towards the higher margin 12 pack supermarket style beers.

MOA share price was the lowest it's been at closing yesterday. 65% lower than the day before their earnings expectation announcement last August. Thats quite a big drop for only a 30% sale volume shortfall. Obviously it will be interesting to see what their margins were, especially with all the contract brewing but I don't think their outlook is a bleak as many have been made to believe.

I'm afraid that you'll find that MOA will be selling their 12 packs at or just above cost price (and thats excluding their marketing costs). They are trying to create the perception that they are meeting demand. As soon as shareholders demand to see some profits they will have to increase the price of their 12 packs to the point where their customers won't buy it. Do you really think that Moa can produce a 12 pack cheaper than Heineken (hint: No they can't. Their ingredient costs are much larger and economies of scale is a MASSIVE factor in this industry).

It doesn't matter how much lower the SP is compared to what they listed at. What matters is what the company is worth. With the losses they are making and no profit anywhere in the foreseeable future the company isn't worth anywhere near ~$20 million. Those who bought into the IPO were taken for a ride. It was grossly irresponsible for funds such as Milford to buy into the IPO. Gaynor realised their mistakes pretty quickly and knew to cut their losses.

[shonen knife]

I'm afraid that you'll find that MOA will be selling their 12 packs at or just above cost price (and thats excluding their marketing costs). They are trying to create the perception that they are meeting demand. As soon as shareholders demand to see some profits they will have to increase the price of their 12 packs to the point where their customers won't buy it. Do you really think that Moa can produce a 12 pack cheaper than Heineken (hint: No they can't. Their ingredient costs are much larger and economies of scale is a MASSIVE factor in this industry).

I paid $16 the other day for my first bottle of Moa (breakfast, had previously bought a bottle of Imperial Stout for a friend @ $22 but didn't try it) just to see what all the fuss was about. It was nice to have a fancy bottle and all, but didn't enjoy it enough to be be paying that premium again. You can get many other "craft" beers for a similar price (e.g. Hitachino Nest beer) or cheaper (e.g. Ginga Kogen) that come in equally eye-catching bottles and taste better (IMHO).

I was initially interested in buying some shares back when it was just below $1, but I am glad that I held off. I hope that Moa does succeed, but I am not convinced that there is a significant market for beer at this price. The craft beer market already seems saturated with many most excellent beers, so I have plenty more to sample before going back to the Moa range (which I probably wouldn't do at its current price).

But that is just my wallet influenced view on the one Moa beer that I tired. Does anyone rate Moa head and shoulders above other boutique brews?

[arnies]

No they aren't heads & shoulders above NZ beers. I think thats why their low-margin beers like the $22 one you tried failed in NZ.
I actually see them moving slightly away from their self imposed 'super-premium' brand in NZ and grabbing market share with their cheaper-to-brew Original and Sessionable Pale Ale that you might have seen popping up in supermarkets.
I think we'll see a shift with a higher percentage of the premium beers being exported, at least until their new brewery gets built.

[Corporate]

The problem with MOA is that it just isn't that nice (for the price). Tuatara on the otherhand...that is a different story!

[shonen knife]

No they aren't heads & shoulders above NZ beers. I think thats why their low-margin beers like the $22 one you tried failed in NZ.
I actually see them moving slightly away from their self imposed 'super-premium' brand in NZ and grabbing market share with their cheaper-to-brew Original and Sessionable Pale Ale that you might have seen popping up in supermarkets.
I think we'll see a shift with a higher percentage of the premium beers being exported, at least until their new brewery gets built.

Yeah I am paying the imported prices, but my friends tells me the price is even higher in Vietnam....

[JohnnyTheHorse]

No they aren't heads & shoulders above NZ beers. I think thats why their low-margin beers like the $22 one you tried failed in NZ.
I actually see them moving slightly away from their self imposed 'super-premium' brand in NZ and grabbing market share with their cheaper-to-brew Original and Sessionable Pale Ale that you might have seen popping up in supermarkets.
I think we'll see a shift with a higher percentage of the premium beers being exported, at least until their new brewery gets built.

Their expensive single bottle beers are high margin, but low volume. Their 12 packs are VERY low margin, but high(er) volume.


The problem with MOA is that it just isn't that nice (for the price). Tuatara on the otherhand...that is a different story!

Precisely.

Wonder what price their capital raising will be at in a year or two?

[glennj]

The problem with MOA is that it just isn't that nice (for the price). Tuatara on the otherhand...that is a different story!

Agree!
I've tasted most of their range & it's generally disappointing. Too high in alcohol in some cases leaving the taste balance wrong IMO.
Was going to invest in the IPO but changed my mind after some research.

[noodles]

Well I liked the 99 not out.

In any case, most successful beer companies make rubbish beer. I'd be more interested in the stock when they make a profit.

I own a shares in ckl.ax (kfc). I don't particularly like their products, but that does not mean I can't make money on the shares.

[glennj]

Belg the research involved buying over $200 of product, a trip to Marlborough to have a look at the brewery & attend a question and answer session. Guess it was fun but it would have been more so if I'd loved the product.

noodles I agree with you that it is possible to make money on companies who sell products you don't particularly like. With Moa it was more than me not particularly liking the product; I wasn't convinced by their business plan either.

[sommelier]

Wow. Someone with 50k worth of shares wants OUT. Have we had any news on the RMA application for the new brewery??

[Balance]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11238786

Not all beer and skittles in the alcohol business as one ex 42 Below shareholder finds out.

600,000 bottles a year and they cannot make money?

[Harvey Specter]

Want to invest in a small brewer but don't like MOA - this one is planning on crowd funding:

http://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2014/04/36144-renaissance-brewing-preps-equity-crowdfunding-new-zealand/

[sommelier]

Can one of you accountants please explain how a company can fail to include 'marketing and sales costs' under cost of sales?