NCM--Newcrest Mining Ltd [Archive]

stolwyk

10-08-2004, 05:33 PM

Date: 29 July, 2004:
The Consensus forecast is $280 mill for year ending June 30, 2005. ABN has $286 mill. Another Analyst forecasted $335 mill.

Much depends on when the Telfer operation starts.
I believe as mentioned before that a guided compromise number of $300 mill is justified.

Based on 329 mill shares and the current price of $14.04, the E/S= 91 cents and the forward P/E=15.4.

So the market treats it as a commodity.

The Dec 31 P/E of Newmont is about 27.5 but both Barrick and Newmont struck trouble in the March 31 quarter. Barrack got hit hardest:

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_thread.asp?fid=2&tid=118555#67436

NEM: http://www.hotcopper.com.au/posts_splitview.asp?fid=2&tid=119000&msgno=67648

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

Aug 10: Readjust for higher share price.

stolwyk

13-08-2004, 11:18 PM

The equilibrium has changed now the merger of the Goldfields' property assets outside SA with IamGold has taken place. and a new company: GOLDFIELDS INTERNATIONAL has been formed.

NCM would now be a perfect fit for the enlarged Goldfields International vehicle.

It would probably be a better merger than a takeover by NEWMONT who tends to have problems from time to time.

But of course they could be suitors as well.

Contrary to reports, takeover/ merger activity has not stopped.

One of the most vulnerable could be Wheaton River (WRM) which didn't manage a tie with IAMGOLD.

The urge by others to also merge and become a dominant force has increased with VANGOLD and MERIDIAN GOLD looking to enlarge, I would assume.

We could finish up with some dozen or so large combines (to be whittled down further in time) which will absorp the middle ranked successful companies.

These will be the feed to ensure that the assets which are lost through mining, will be replaced.

Gerry.
Holds WRM Warrants only
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk

07-09-2004, 02:55 PM

Subject re: ncm and newmont, why the difference?
Posted 29/07/04 15:10 -

The Consensus forecast is $280 mill for year ending June 30, 2005. ABN has $286 mill. Another Analyst forecasted $335 mill.

Much depends on when the Telfer operation starts.
I believe as mentioned before that a guided compromise number of $300 mill is justified.

Based on 329 mill shares and the current price of $14.04, the E/S= 91 cents and the forward P/E=15.4.

So the market treats it as a commodity.

The Dec 31 P/E of Newmont is about 27.5 but both Barrick and Newmont struck trouble in the March 31 quarter. Barrack got hit hardest.

Gerry
____________________________________

Opinion from Bringitere:

Subject ncm currently worth $30+

Posted 10/07/04 21:57 -The ratio of market capitalisation/reserves and resources(in USD/ounce) clearly highlights the huge discount NCM is trading at in comparison to it's North American peers and provides a rough estimate of what they would be prepared to pay for NCM.

Refer to http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb_data/ and the column, market capitalisation/P & P(proven and probable ounces).Clicking on the top of any column, will allow you to see the list in ascending or descending order.

This ratio for Newmont (in USD/oz) is $237/oz, for Barrick $170/oz and for Placer Dome $134/oz.

For NCM the ratio is just USD$64/oz.

The value of NCM is even higher given the fact that the South African gold industry is in a state of crisis due to the strong rand, and gold is set to move higher this week with the release of the PPI, CPI and balance of trade figures in the US.

Persisting high oil prices will ensure the US B of T deficits continue, the US economy will not grow as strongly as required and that inflation continues to grow at an alarming rate.

Highlighting just how ridiculously cheap NCM is relative to the North American gold producers and the importance of learning from the MIM debacle at this time is vital.Newmont has approximately 78m ounces in resources and reserves, Barrick has 68m ounces and Placer Dome 55m ounces.NCM currently has 58m ounces and this is certain to steadily increase as NCM huge exploration success continues.

Given that annual production for Newmont is over 7m ounces and for Barrick 5m ounces, both companies are very eager to add to their resources/reserves and NCM is easily the best prospective acquisition to acieve this.

Newmont, Barrick and Placer Dome must look for suitable acquisitions to bolster their respective fast diminishing resources and reserves, as they cannot achieve the necessary rate of replenishment themselves.This and NCM's low costs are the main reasons why NCM is the envy of the others.

I believe that NCM's long term organic growth and sustainability of it's earnings make it the most undervalued company in the S&P/ASX 50 by a long way, and that someone must very clearly inform the largest NCM shareholders of the huge opportunity that currently exists, to ensure that NCM is not sold out at a ridiculously huge discount to it's true value.

As the USD continues to decline against the AUD, the gold price continues to rise and the NCM share price rises further, it's clearly in the interests of the North Americans to bid for NCM sooner rather than later.All existing institutional investors should currently be aggresively buying more NCM shares so that any bid with even a chance of success must be at closer to $35/NCM share rather than $25/share.

The value of NCM will be significantly more as next year and into 2006(and beyond) as NCM realises huge increases in earnings and will have possibly the largest resouces'reserves of all gold producers globally.

NCM has a very open register and the failure of major shareholders/institutions to pro-actively address this urgent situation is consistent with Australian's propensity to sell out of their most valuable assets for nicks. The North Americans will be all too aware of this and are certain to play on this when attempting to convince NCM shareholders to accept their bid.

Gerry

stolwyk

07-09-2004, 03:07 PM

Subject interesting article on Newcrest (NCM)
Posted 12/08/04 07:28

MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Australia's biggest gold producer Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCM.AU) said Tuesday it is missing out on the share valuations enjoyed by some of the world's biggest gold miners.

U.S.-listed majors including Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU) and Placer Dome Inc. (PDG) have been rewarded with "wonderful premiums" in the short term following acquisition sprees, despite some having downward trends in production profiles, Newcrest Chief Executive Tony Palmer said.

"There is also a disturbing upward trend in the cost of production of these major producers, with the average cost of producing an ounce of gold rising by as much as US$50/ounce over the last two years," Palmer said in a speech to the Committee for Economic Development of Australia.

"To me, this is an indication that the consolidation process was not driven by what might be termed normal business reason - things like synergies might have offered a more competitive cost of production - but rather the pursuit of growth for growth's sake," he said.

Palmer's comments come as the company reiterated its end-September start-up date for its A$1.2 billion Telfer gold project in Western Australia.

Based on a 24-year life, Telfer is forecast to produce on average 800,000 ounces of gold and 28,000 metric tons of copper each year - more than doubling Newcrest's existing production profile.

Surging interest in U.S. gold stocks in recent years has seen some Wall Street-listed majors "rewarded in the short term with wonderful premiums for their fundamental values," he said.

Underpinning this has been concern over the health of the U.S dollar, with investors looking to gold equities as a hedge against the weakening currency.

"While Newcrest does not enjoy the gold premium of stocks listed on the NYSE, we have in fact outperformed every single one of those six major producers in terms of total shareholder return over a one-, three-, five- and 10-year timespan," Palmer said.

If Newcrest attracted similar sorts of premiums the "stock price would more than double", he added.

One of the key reasons behind the lack of premium is a tendency for Australian investors to be more cautious in valuing mining stocks.

Newcrest has been one of the best performing of Australia's major companies, with shares in the group jumping 57% over the past year, outperforming the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index's 11% gain.

Some analysts also think that with the start-up of the Telfer mine, Newcrest will attract takeover attention from U.S.-listed majors, particularly Newmont.

Shares in Newcrest on Tuesday fell 3 cents to A$14.22.
________________________________________________

26 Aug: Preliminary Final Report:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NCM&E=ASX&N=223351

Presentation, 2004 results:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NCM&E=ASX&N=223416
__________________________________
Sept. 3,
Amended Resource and Reserves statement:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NCM&E=ASX&N=223894

"Extract:
Newcrest Mining Limited has detailed new Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves estimates for the year ended 30 June 2004.

The key points of the 2004 Statement are:
• Another successful year for Newcrest’s reserve replacement strategy with a nominal increase of reserves to 28 million ounces.

• Group resources have increased to 62 million ounces of gold and 5 million tonnes of copper in situ.

• An increase of 8.4 million ounces of gold and 1.2 million tonnes of copper in the Cadia East resource.

• An increase in the Ridgeway reserve of 1.23 million ounces of gold before depletion.

Total Mineral Resources at year end, net of mining depletion, are estimated at 62 million ounces of gold and 5 million tonnes of copper in situ, which is an increase in the resource of 9 million ounces of gold and an increase of 1.2 million tonnes of copper compared with June 2003".

NCM: $A14.94

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you de

stolwyk

18-10-2004, 06:35 PM

Gold fields bid may spark sector m&a upturn:

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_thread.asp?fid=1&tid=136990#392847

Extract:

"The weekend move could trigger a fresh wave of consolidation in the gold mining sector, which has not seen any significant acquisitions since AngloGold's takeover of Ghana's Ashanti last year".

nelehdine

21-10-2004, 08:04 PM

All-time high today with the shares soaring 100c to 1666. Maybe something is up with regard to takeover activity, or it could be just down to gold breaking into a new uptrend with AU now trading at $424/oz, either way the stock looks great with $20 a real possibility before the year end if gold can head towards $450.

Disc: Hold 425 NCM ( bgt at 1045 )

stolwyk

21-10-2004, 09:42 PM

They must be reasonably close to starting up Telfer, I think. Although it is hedged it benefits from POG increases. It is now $425.20.

M&A activity is always possible; don't exclude China.

From my post, 7 Sept.:

Posted 10/07/04 21:57 -The ratio of market capitalisation/reserves and resources(in USD/ounce) clearly highlights the huge discount NCM is trading at in comparison to it's North American peers and provides a rough estimate of what they would be prepared to pay for NCM.

Refer to http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb_data/ and the column, market capitalisation/P & P(proven and probable ounces).Clicking on the top of any column, will allow you to see the list in ascending or descending order.

This ratio for Newmont (in USD/oz) is $237/oz, for Barrick $170/oz and for Placer Dome $134/oz.

For NCM the ratio is just USD$64/oz.
_____________________________________

This is one of the stocks chosen for "A selection of explorers"-See the thread on this site.

Gerry

nelehdine

21-10-2004, 09:51 PM

Article in Denver Post ( Newmont's home town ) says that NEM is eyeing up NCM should the Harmony takeover of GoldFields succeed. NEM have a huge chequebook and very highly rated shares , a scrip offer for NCM would be very very cheap for NEM ... even if it valued NCM between $25 & $30 !!

stolwyk

21-10-2004, 10:00 PM

On the HC site there is a reference to that. Actually for its size, I prefer NCM. NEM and Barrick often have some negative news.

That takeover Harmony--Goldfields is not certain.

There is of course only 1 NCM as I indicated in my previous post. All the background info is there.

Gerry

nelehdine

21-10-2004, 10:18 PM

Agree ... Newcrest is a very exciting prospect over the next few years ... $25 from Newmont may look great, but I'm sure there is a lot more value in NCM than that for the patient !!

21-10-2004, 10:31 PM

Gerry another 70% of a thread your ramping posts

nelehdine

21-10-2004, 10:47 PM

NCM doesn't need ramping Enigma ... look at todays trading , and not a post on this forum for days before !!

C'mon man , get real !!!

stolwyk

21-10-2004, 11:47 PM

A lot of time consuming work and calculations have been done on those posts.

Here is a reference to that NCM thread:

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20700&whichpage=2

nelehdine

22-10-2004, 05:31 PM

Adding another 20c or so to yesterdays $1 gain ... impressive stuff !!!

stolwyk

22-10-2004, 06:19 PM

It should have gone up more but we struck a problem early this morning with a Govt Report saying there were 25000 less job claim seekers than the month before.

The market took that to read that there was still some life in the economy left which could benefit the dollar. Within minutes, the POG dropped $4 and it was a vertical fall as shown by Kitco.

Gerry

tracker

27-10-2004, 02:12 PM

gerry how are those calculations looking now/??
just an enquiry
stops as always
you will need them
tracker

stolwyk

27-10-2004, 10:38 PM

AGM Presentation:

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NCM&E=ASX&N=226793

Chairman's & MD's AGM Addresses to Shareholders:

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NCM&E=ASX&N=226775

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NCM&E=ASX&N=226760

Unaudited profit $21.90 m but this doesn't include a late shipment of $7 m.

Group gold production was 9.3% down while copper was 11.6% down.

Hedging at Sept 30:
Gold: 6.9 mill ounces.
Copper: 207,000 tonnes.

+++++++++++++++++++++++

Current market gold price $ 425.20
$US: 85.2

NCM price: $A16.46 (-86 cents)

stolwyk

28-10-2004, 10:51 AM

Amended guided profit forecast.

In the last quarter, gold production slipped 9.3% while that of copper slipped 11.6%.

The completion date of the new Plants is not known; this introduces a degree of uncertainty.

The quarterly profit was $28.90 if a late shipment of $7 mill were included.

The previous forecast was $300 mill and the E/S was 91 cents . Based on the price of $14.04, the forward P/E was 15.4 (329 mill shares).

I believe the forecasted profit needs to be rerated to about $250 mill. or 76 cents per share (329.2 mill shares).

Based on the price of $16.46, the forward P/E is 21.65.
-------------------------------------------

Comment: Obviously, once Telfer starts operating, the picture changes and I am more interested in the following financial year's production.

Of some importance is the triangular fight of Harmony--Goldfields--IMG.

Harmony bid for Goldfields who in turn wants to take over Iamgold. Harmony thinks its bid has preference and is applying to the court to have the the case brought back to its original position.

The outcome could affect NCM because the battle is all about competitive large resources.

If Goldfields merged with Harmony then other large companies (say Newmont) may act to extend its resources by a takeover of say NCM.
_________________

The Chinese are very active in Canada at the moment (Noranda, oil sands) and may well be looking sooner or later for large gold companies.

Because NCM would operate at low cash costs, it could become a takeover candidate as well either by the Chinese or through reshuffling of assets due to the Chinese possibly taking over another large company (Placer Dome?).

The Chinese would want large quantities of gold as they are keen their citizens should have some.

Assume that some 300,000 mill. Chinese want to buy one ounce of gold, that will be 9331 tonnes.

World Suply-From World Gold: In 2003, some 3865 tonnes from all sources were supplied, including scrap and some 617 tonnes sold by the "Official Sector".

I don't think we shall see too much sold by this Sector, indeed they could be net buyers.

So, there could be interesting times coming up for NCM.
I am not suggesting there will be a takeover of course.

NEWMONT: P/E: about 47.6 (Source: TSX-Toronto)

Gerry
Holds NCM
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk

31-10-2004, 08:05 PM

WHICH COMPANY WOULD BE TAKEN OVER FIRST: NCM OR OXR?

I think that NCM would with their close to 60 mill ounces of gold resources.

The big boys go for companies like NCM because it will be super efficient once Telfer starts up.

Who would take it over? Any of the following:

1. Any large company like NEWMONT. If there is a merger somewhere else, then a company like Newmont wants to keep ahead with its resources compared with that of the merged companies.

2. China. This country will need a lot of gold at some stage and it could buy NCM. (China wants its citizens to have gold). That will give it certainty of supply and it could buy when the prices won't be too high.

Any merger or takeover could be suddenly anounced.
_______________________________

OXR for all its combination of gold and copper won't be taken over now, I think.

It is not cheap now and needs a few years of production before an offer can be made. Some may prefer a mono culture, either gold or copper but not both.

I am not suggesting there wil be a takeover or merger.

That is my opinion.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button

nelehdine

12-11-2004, 10:11 PM

Quite an amazing performance from NCM ,up to an eye-watering $17.87 which is an all-time high. The stock has been on a breakneck rally over the last few months ... you could have bought them for less than $11 only back in April. I sold out at $14 but fortunately bit the bullet, swallowed my pride and jumped back in at $15.50 a few short weeks ago ( when the A$ was at .9325 as well !! ) I think this could be an amazing ride over the next few years ... the hardest part will be resisting the temptation to flick them when they have big 50c rises day after day or the much vaunted takeover comes along from Newmont or Barrick and they leap $5 in a single day ...

Disc: Determined NCM long-term holder !!

stolwyk

13-11-2004, 12:05 AM

It is closer to starting up Telfer.

At that point, expect the PR to go full blast at all levels

Gerry
Hold NCM
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button.

stolwyk

24-11-2004, 01:15 PM

TELFER AND CRACOW PROJECTS COMMENCE PRODUCTION

"Newcrest Mining Limited advises that commissioning at its 100% owned Telfer Project and 70% owned Cracow Project has progressed with both now processing ore material and production underway.

At Telfer, all elements of the first processing train have been commissioned including the semi-autogenous grinding (SAG) mill and ore grade material is now being processed successfully to produce a gold-copper concentrate.

Processing rates and flotation behaviour are all in line with expectations for this early phase of operation. The final stages of commissioning of the gas pipeline to site are currently underway and the power generation turbines will be operated with this gas supply shortly.

Work is progressing on the second processing train at Telfer with electrical work in the grinding area the main activity required for completion.

The development of the Telfer Deeps underground operation is ongoing however the high demand within all aspects of the mining industry in Western Australia continues to place pressure on resourcing of construction projects.

At Cracow, first ore has been processed with all equipment successfully operated under load and leaching of gold ore proceeding as expected. The first gold pour is expected today.

The commissioning of these projects is a key milestone in the doubling of Newcrest’s production base".

stolwyk

12-12-2004, 07:36 PM

Not much fun at BARRICK (ABX) with trailing P/E of 74:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/willettalway121104.html

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk

13-12-2004, 01:26 PM

"The Board of Newcrest is pleased to advise that it has given approval to proceed to the next stage of development of the Cadia East and Ridgeway Deeps Projects.

Cadia East:
The Board has approved a programme of work to be undertaken over a three to four year period to enable the compilation of a bankable feasibility study for the Cadia East project.

Cadia East contains 830 million tonnes of mineral resources, with an estimated 18 million ounces of gold and 2.9 million tonnes of copper.

The work to be undertaken includes development of 11 kilometres of underground decline access to enable the collection of bulk samples for metallurgical testing, further diamond drilling and the gathering of necessary geotechnical data to enable mining options to be properly evaluated.

Development of the decline access will be commenced in early 2005 and is expected to be completed by the end of 2006.

Ridgeway Deeps:
The Board has also approved the development of the Ridgeway Deeps project. The project will extend the depth of mining at the Ridgeway operation by 300 metres and involves additional decline development, ventilation upgrades and installation of a new crusher
at depth.

The project is expected to extend the life of the Ridgeway Mine by around 6 years to 2018, with an extra 1.3 million ounces of gold and 163,000 tonnes of copper anticipated to be produced.

Telfer project update:
The Company also advises that since announcing the commencement of operation of the first processing train at Telfer on 24 November 2004 commissioning of that plant has continued to progress well.

The commissioned processing train, which has a nameplate capacity of 1100 tonnes per hour, has been operating on a sustained basis at 1300 tonnes per hour of open cut ore.

The grinding parameters, gold and copper recoveries and concentrate grades achieved to date have all been in line with feasibility study expectations and first gold has been poured following the commissioning of the gravity gold circuit.

Construction of the second processing train is progressing well and is nearing completion.
Construction and commissioning of the 450 kilometre gas pipeline from Port Hedland has been completed satisfactorily and gas is now available at the site.

The gas turbine power facility, which has been operating on distillate to date, will be progressively switched over to gas.

Project management changes.
Following the successful development of Telfer and the resumption of operations, Mr Bruce Price, Newcrest’s Executive General Manager Project Development, will now leave the Company, as expected.

In his six years in the role Bruce has made a major contribution to Newcrest’s rapid growth through the development of the Gosowong, Ridgeway and now Telfer mines.

Mr Paul Hallam has been appointed as the new Executive General Manager, Development and Projects. He has extensive experience in operational and project development roles in the gold and metals industries, including a number of years in senior roles with Battle Mountain, North Limited and Alcoa Limited..
*** ENDS ***

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NCM&E=ASX&N=229478

stolwyk

29-12-2004, 12:45 PM

2004 Sustainability Report:

Newcrest Mining Limited advises that the Company’s 2004
Sustainability Report is now available on the company’s website at
www.newcrest.com.au

stolwyk

27-01-2005, 12:35 PM

Kencana Project Development Approved

The Board of Newcrest has approved the development of the Kencana gold
deposit at Gosowong in Indonesia, in which Newcrest has an 82.5%
interest and its joint venture partner Aneka Tambang holds the remaining 17.5% interest.

The Mineral Resource is estimated at 1.7 million tonnes at 41 grams for 2.2 million ounces gold and the project plan is to develop an underground mine to extract 1.6Moz of this resource.

The Kencana mine has a 6 year mine life based on current reserve however the mine plan expects to recover the majority of this 1.6Moz over 4 years at a cash cost of around $US130/oz and a total cost of US$172/oz.

This will involve production from the underground mine using various stoping methods and depending on the success of the selected method the production rates will be at or above 350 Kozs p.a.

The capital cost to first production for the project is $US40M (100%) and includes the development of the decline and construction of additional site infrastructure.

Construction of the decline is expected to commence during Q4 FY05 with first gold production expected in Q4 FY06.
Exploration is continuing on the Kencana mineralization which remains
open at depth and to the south of the current mineralised zone.

stolwyk

14-02-2005, 04:57 PM

Telfer Project Second Processing Train Commissioned
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NCM&E=ASX&N=232004

Telfer Project Second Processing Train Commissioned Newcrest Mining Limited advises that commissioning of the second processing train commenced on 1 February and that nameplate capacity for this train has now been achieved.

This processing train, which has a nameplate capacity of 1100 tonnes per hour has now operated at a sustained level above this rate.

The grinding parameters, gold and copper recoveries and concentrate grades achieved are in line with the commissioning plan expectations.

The first processing train continues to operate well and production from this train continues to exceed feasibility study expectations.

Whilst commissioning activities continue in minor areas the start-up of the second processing unit marks the commencement of Telfer as an operating project for Newcrest.

***ENDS***

stolwyk

24-02-2005, 02:14 PM

Media Release/Half Yearly Report/Half Year Accounts:

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NCM&E=ASX&N=232617

stolwyk

10-03-2005, 05:08 PM

NCM has been moving nicely over the last fortnight and is now $A18.51

stolwyk

11-03-2005, 07:17 PM

Gosowong Province Mineral Resource & Ore Reserve Update:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NCM&E=ASX&N=233694

stolwyk

22-03-2005, 02:10 PM

Some time ago, I send BSG data to the very well known TA and Commentator. He has since published this data (Bolnisi gold):
http://www.clivemaund.com/index.php

Yesterday I send him data of BDG; he has acknowledged it today.

Just now I sent him NCM (NEWCREST) data.

See what happens.

Gerry

22-03-2005, 04:40 PM

Gerry How much are you paying Clive Maund?

stolwyk

22-03-2005, 05:17 PM

Why pay him? He needs the info for his own business. He has a client base to look after.

People like me benefit because he is well known and can do a lot for the share price. As simple as that. See what happens.

See the BDG thread also.

22-03-2005, 05:46 PM

Gerry INFO from You is he an idiot?

dingdong

28-04-2005, 06:28 PM

Down 20% for the year what a truly worthy return on an overrated GOLD stock.

TGT05

17-05-2005, 01:20 PM

What's going on with the decline?? Due to company or overall market downturn??

limegreen

17-05-2005, 03:23 PM

I had been considering buying, but with support at $15.50 and $15.00 both broken, I would certainly have sold by now if I had a holding. There might be some support at just over $13, but it does seem to be rather in freefall at the moment.

TGT05

24-05-2005, 10:03 AM

Heading back up now hopefully

limegreen

24-05-2005, 10:36 AM

It's close to breaking it's recent downtrend. Price action over the next few days might confirm this. The OBV is also touching it's downtrend. A couple of days of rises and it might look like a buy.

TGT05

24-05-2005, 06:18 PM

Did you buy in under $15 lime?

TGT05

24-05-2005, 06:20 PM

Sorry, under 14 I mean

limegreen

24-05-2005, 09:49 PM

Haven't bought yet. Today's price action looks good, but will scatter some technical tea leaves and draw a chart tomorrow. Assuming BHP's takeover of WMR goes through, I'll be needing to find another resource stock. (Actually, I don't balance my stocks by sector at all, however, not having one seems a bit remiss on the ASX). I'll update this with a chart tomorrow.

dingdong

30-05-2005, 12:33 PM

Lacklustre demand, price going nowhere, production problems, cost blowouts, what next for this (and other) overrated gold mines?

30-05-2005, 04:35 PM

Abdab they are going to start trading in camel dung it is more profitable

limegreen

02-06-2005, 01:40 PM

I'd promised to post a graph. NCM appears to have been best traded with OnBalanceVolume which would have locked in around 300% profit. The OBV has started trending down with the recent fall, and I think waiting for the OBV to break up would be prudent before investment.

I've also marked what appears to be a bullish divergence with the RSI. The latest SP low conincided with a higher RSI low, which is er bullish. It's not enough to part me with my cash, however.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/ncm2june05.gif

DISC: Stil watching.

TGT05

03-06-2005, 09:32 PM

Cheers lime

TGT05

17-06-2005, 04:31 PM

Could someone please explain the recent increase in share price and anything likely to further boost it??

limegreen

17-06-2005, 05:12 PM

The OBV volume is rising again. I was feeling a bit shady for a few days and missed the flagged TA entry. The resurgence is on good volume. There is at least one NZ broker pimping it hardcore, arguing that a valuation of $17 is justified without any corporate activity factored in...

dingdong

17-06-2005, 08:17 PM

What an overhyped and overrated gold stock.

Sky high PEs and gold price still going nowhere in AUD.

The production problems and cost blowouts which are a distant memory now will come back to bite with the August profit announcement.

TGT05

04-07-2005, 01:05 PM

what's known about the possible takeover??

truedragon

19-10-2005, 10:58 PM

This thing got hammer 10% ouch ouch ouch
Who is betting a rebound tomorrow... .finger crossed and hope the gold price go up.

DISC: Hold A LOT

limegreen

20-10-2005, 10:32 AM

$18 seems like an obvious level of resistance, which may provide support (but then I could have made the same argument about $19 odd). The recent uptrend has been broken. Taking a longer term view, this stock appears very volatile, and it seems that an iron stomach/absorbent underwear might be helpful. NCM has provided returns over a 5 year period, but this is not the first such major dip.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/ncm19oct05.gif

lambton

20-10-2005, 03:14 PM

quote:Originally posted by TGT05

what's known about the possible takeover??

The latest hammering might provoke one. Hope so.

limegreen

20-10-2005, 04:55 PM

Ouch. So much for support. Yet another good reason to sell on trend breaks!
DISC: None, mercifully.

truedragon

20-10-2005, 05:49 PM

17 should be the .... stressful ride[B)]

JBmurc

18-05-2009, 10:46 AM

Is Australia's top gold miner ripe for a raid?Font Scale: 15 May 2009 @ 03:15 am ET Print E-MailWell known business commentator Stephen Bartholomuesz provided analysts and market speculators with food for thought in suggesting the country's only major domestically-owned gold producer Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM, NYADR: NWCNY) may again be a target for takeover.

Writing in Business Speculator, Bartholomuesz suggested that Newcrest's chief Ian Smith went close to suggesting the company's story was too positive to tell at this week's Merrill Lynch conference in Barcelona, Spain.

A copy of Smith's presentation, made promptly available on Intierra's Minmet data base, certainly showed that in both cash cost performance and production growth Newcrest was providing a leading performance for majors to observe.

With several global majors failing to maintain reserve growth to match production and also having difficulty maintaining good cash costs, it is easy to understand why Newcrest may now be a target for backroom number crunchers.

In the late 1980s and 1990s the overseas raiders - Newmont Mining, Barrick Gold, Goldfields, AngloGold Ashanti, Harmony Gold and DRD Gold took over all the major producers except Newcrest, though the two latter South African companies perhaps wished they hadn't based on their relative short-term success.

One major reason why Newcrest was off the radar was that it had a toxic hedge book at the time, and there was probably a wrong impression on how well it could perform in Indonesia.

Smith's Barcelona presentation showed that Newcrest had a return on capital employed in 2008 of 20%, far better than other global majors with Goldfields achieving 17%, Newmont 14% and, down the line, Goldcorp 3%. The return on invested capital was 25%, 4% better than nearest rivals Goldfields and Newmont.

Newcrest's operations and projects are the 100% owned Cadia Valley mines in New South Wales, fully owned Telfer in Western Australia's hinterland, 82.5% of Gosowong in Indonesia, 70% of Cracow in Queensland, 50% of the Hidden Valley and Wafi-Golpu mine developments in Papua New Guinea in partnership with Harmony and 65% of the Namosi project in Fiji.

ynot

14-09-2012, 07:25 PM

I'm not that clued up on NCM but if you look at the comparison with the GOLD ETF on the ASX over the last couple of years NCM looks like a no brainer.

What am i missing here?

hal

16-09-2012, 02:04 PM

I'm not that clued up on NCM but if you look at the comparison with the GOLD ETF on the ASX over the last couple of years NCM looks like a no brainer.

What am i missing here?

They are expanding and therefore analysts are looking at cost of the new mines. Also the market has been rubbish but seems to be changing in a positive direction. I guess if they keep producing record profits the market will notice.

I believe there is a lot of good value and my favourite is Kingsgate but they are expanding as well and have been hit down because of the fear about how they are going to raise the money. They are transitioning from one mine to 4 mines by 2014/2015 and eventually around 500,000 ounces of gold equivilant per year. They also pay a good percentage of their profits in dividends.

It certainly could be an interesting period ahead for gold/silver producers and eventually the explorers.

ynot

16-09-2012, 09:51 PM

yes, blowed if i know either, i have decided to jump into sliver bullion tomorrow!

winner69

08-06-2013, 01:12 PM

So some special analysts were told about the write downs and started selling and then sent out SELL and those who weren't in on the info lost even more

ASIC to investigate ....no wrong doing in this sort of behaviour is there ....just the way the game is played

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/6/8/resources-and-energy/asic-probes-newcrest-disclosure

steve fleming

10-06-2013, 04:55 PM

ALAN KOHLER | 08 JUNE 2013

The System Is Rigged

Example 3

Between Friday night and Tuesday lunchtime, Newcrest shares rose 9%, who knows why. The gold price had been rallying for a week, and gone up US$50 an ounce, so that may have been the reason, but...

Anyway, at 1pm on Tuesday it started to fall against a rising market with heavy volume, closing 3.5% off its peak at $15.15. Wednesday morning, UBS came out with a downgrade from neutral to sell, lowering its target by 33% to $12. Newcrest fell to $14.31 at the opening. On Thursday morning both Credit Suisse and Citi downgraded, CS to a target price of $14.55; Citi to $13. Once again the stock crashed at the opening, to $13.60. It closed Thursday at $13.36, down 15% in two days.

On Friday, Newcrest announced $5-6 billion in asset impairments.

The question is: who got out of the stock on Tuesday, and what did they know about the forthcoming downgrades? And what did the brokers know on Wednesday and Thursday about what was to be announced on Friday? One thing’s for sure: small investors knew nothing about any of it until Friday morning, after the stock had fallen 15%.

Daytr

11-09-2015, 06:52 PM

Largest gold producer in Australia and not a post in over two years!
Just goes to show how out of favour they have been I suppose.
I've been following these guys reasonably closely & missed getting filled last time if was sub $11 a week or two ago.
Got filled today right on the lows.
Their reduction in debt has been impressive & I think they are now looking like a much better company & making good money.
I wouldn't be surprised to see them on the acquisition trail in the next six months.
Lihir is still a dog, and there some other high cost assets to.
Cadia, has been an absolute gem.
Copper price doing a bit better to and obviously the Aussie.
I wouldn't say they are super cheap, but not bad either & I think its only a matter of time that the market realizes the new management have turned things around.

JBmurc

11-09-2015, 09:48 PM

Yes but I don't see it staying that way for much longer...From E*Trade Morningstar's Recommendation

Adjusted fiscal 2015 net profit increased 19% to AUD 515 million, in line with expectations. Operating cash flow improved 53% to AUD 1.6 billion while free cash flow was up from modest levels last year to an impressive AUD 1.0 billion. The proceeds were largely used to repay debt which declined 22% to USD 2.9 billion. No dividend was declared. We agree management's focus should remain on debt repayment for the foreseeable future. Of the debt, USD 2 billion is long-term with maturities in fiscal 2022, 2023 and 2042. With cash costs reduced, the operations in better shape and cash flow improved, Newcrest looks to have weathered the worst of the storm. The prospect of a discounted equity raise now looks remote and we expect the discount in Newcrest's share price to unwind. Guidance for fiscal 2016 is a little softer than expected with gold production set to grow by approximately 3% to 2.4 to 2.6 million ounces. We were previously just above this range. Copper output is also expected to be down slightly. Overall, we now expect earnings to fall about 10% in fiscal 2016 before growing again from fiscal 2017 with the full ramp-up of Cadia East and more efficient production from Lihir. Our fair value estimate remains AUD 22 per share. Long term assumptions remain USD 1,200 per ounce gold (2015 dollars, inflated at 2.5% per annum). Newcrest is undervalued. Unit-cost improvement and production growth with the ramp-up of Cadia and Lihir underpins a recovery. Newcrest's competitive position is improving with the lower Australian dollar and decreased competition for inputs as the mining boom in Australia busts, particularly relative to U.S. peers. Operational gains are renewing investor confidence. Newcrest lacks a moat because of an absence of a significant cost advantage over peers and the bloated asset base. High fair value uncertainty reflects the single-commodity risk, moderate financial leverage, and exposure to exploration uncertainty and mine development risk.

Daytr

12-09-2015, 08:31 AM

They also have a massive reserve base, much larger than any other major producer in the world.
At one stage they had close to 40 years of reserves!
I've been thinking about acquisitions they may make & one company stands out to me....

airedale

12-09-2015, 01:44 PM

Hi Daytr, would you like to share that "one company".?:confused:

Daytr

12-09-2015, 03:14 PM

Will do soon, got more research to do.

Daytr

14-09-2015, 05:55 PM

JBmurc

14-09-2015, 07:32 PM

Nice 4.5% day up! Couldn't help but live up to my tag & take profit on this one.
I think we may see a reasonable amount of volatility on the gold price leading into the FOMC & that too could lead to NCM SP volatility.
Hopefully I can take advantage of that & get reset.

Geez I had another look at NCM first thing today and come close to placing a order ...but then after looking over 6-7 other spec trades ended up side-tracked and traded STO .....holding a good few Gold micro's so was looking outside the sector

Daytr

14-09-2015, 09:45 PM

JBmurc

14-09-2015, 10:49 PM

If you don't mind me saying JB, think you got a bit lucky with STO. Clear down trend still.
Seems to have found some support lows $4s. but oil is still looking to press lower in my view.
Anyway back to NCM, hopefully I can pick it up again in the next few days.

Yes T/A wise it showed STO has yet to break that downtrend as to why I took the $250 nett profit for the 2 hour trade and ran .... was more so following the Depth and trading to it ...(inter hour trading etc ) basically I seen larger volume support come in @ 4.43- 4.44 ...jumped in with the smaller bids order 4.45 then watched the volume move northwards till the offers gave some resistance at which point I took my profit .... had I got it wrong and new selling pressure had came out of the market to break 4.44 - 4.43 I would have sold....

see how I go tomorrow ....really would like to beat my 105% one day return but not going do that in STO or NCM

Daytr

15-09-2015, 01:46 PM

So that company I am referring to is Oz Minerals.
I think it would be a perfect fit for NCM.
Copper/gold producer, Aussie production and quite close to many of NCMs assets.
And Oz are sitting on $400M+ cash.
Market cap just over A$1Bln.
I picked them up today as even if its not a take over target its good value, with a lazy balance sheet.

Hi Daytr, would you like to share that "one company".?:confused:

Coles Killer

19-10-2015, 09:23 AM

I'd rather they resumed paying a dividend before they consider acquisitions, I think this would provide a larger boost to the shareprice.

A while when NCM's shareprice was in freefall, they were booted out of the ASX20, but their price has recovered substantially, and some of the other companies (Origin in particular) have weakened substantially. Does anyone know whether they have a chance of making it back on? Presumably if they did, this would drive some buying.

Also, did anyone else sign up to the class action? I bought during the period in question and have signed up, but have no idea what's going to happen...

JBmurc

10-05-2022, 10:46 PM

Purchased a good chunk of NCM today 9920 shares @ $25 ... I think this Blue chip Gold/Cu producer is a great swing trade ... and If we head towards Negative rates once more Gold will release much higher ... also USD losing it sway with some of the Largest economies.. talk of Gold backing etc ...

AUD Gold still well above $2660oz(NCM latest AISC $1446oz= fat $1200oz profit ) ... Copper won't be down for long ..CCP doesn't want to lose control of the masses and will be forced to open up>>Copper stocks will fall quick ..so many major projects demanding Cu

NCM actually lowering Mining costs(from Qty report) when pretty much all other miners are seeing costs go through the roof >>

When it comes to Mining-- scale can work very well .. I think NCM adding Havieron into the picture is a master stroke .. another very low cost operation

T/A wise closed above the 200 SMAtoday a positive ..

,

whatsup

12-05-2022, 05:34 PM