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View Full Version : Over the Fiscal Cliff - yes or no?



Minerbarejet
28-12-2012, 06:47 PM
Cant seem to find a thread on this subject that is almost upon us. Would be interested in other members views. Is it a media beatup - e.g Y2k, Sars or just a bunch of Americans doing their best to stuff everything up again. Have cashed up on the uncertainty.

JBmurc
28-12-2012, 07:39 PM
Bit of both IMHO

winner69
28-12-2012, 08:09 PM
they will come to some sort of half pie agreement to sort of sort it out in a few months time

this fiscal cliff is not the real problem anyway .... the real problem is still the huge amount of debt (public and profit) the usa has ....so much so that every 100 basis point change in interest rates on maturing and refinanced debt now implies a redistribution of income between borrowers and lenders on the order of $500 billion annually

Minerbarejet
29-12-2012, 12:37 PM
Whats the bet that if they go over the cliff there will be a double whammy from S&P, Moodys doing another downgrade for another nailbiting episode. Wont have any fingers left soon - down to my last ones.:D Kidding

Stranger_Danger
29-12-2012, 08:22 PM
The fiscal cliff is a sideshow and isn't a big risk, per se.

The truth is, the USA has run up debts that simply can't be paid and made entitlement promises it simply can't keep.

The dems and the rebs are now at an impasse arguing over, what, 1% of the real problem?

They're not even talking about real spending cuts! The taste to reverse a 50 year trend of vote buying via populist handouts is basically zero.

The risk isn't whether or not the specific measures behind the "fiscal cliff" happen or don't happen.

The REAL risks are

(a) Joe Public wakes up to how broken the whole system is, and does...???

(b) People start wondering why they are willing to lend a bankrupt Government money denominated in a currency that the Fed is determined to depreciate, for a rate of return that is historically low and bears no relationship to either risk or the likely inflation rate in the coming years.

I expect both (a) and (b) to happen at some stage (and, to a lesser extent, elsewhere. Including NZ) but getting the timing right is impossible.

It might be this can kicking episode that proves to be when the levee breaks. Or it could be twenty can kicks into the future.

Minerbarejet
05-01-2013, 05:20 PM
[QUOTE=Stranger_Danger;388840(a) Joe Public wakes up to how broken the whole system is, and does...???.[/QUOTE]
Precisely - does what? Nothing. Why. He has nothing to replace it with. Communism. No. Religion
Dark Ages IMO. Social Credit? Benign Dictators. Revolution. No No and No. All that you will get is Anarchy which seems to have spread all over the Middle East. Pass on that. Until a new and better worldwide system is invented that does not require force to back it up we are pretty much stuck with the greed and excesses such as 20 million dollar dowries (China)at one end and dying and starving of Africa at the other.

Stranger_Danger
06-01-2013, 09:15 AM
I'm not so sure about that. You have mentioned things that already happened and decided "no" but the real risks tend to come from new things, or recycled old things that play out differently this time.

For example, would Twitter or Facebook have changed any of those things you mention? What about next time? Is there going to be a real life Twitter-caused lynching soon? Would Twitter/Facebook have made the Salem Witch Trials more or less likely? What would happen next time, and who would be the witches? What about the next technology after Twitter, the one that hasn't been invented yet - what may be its impact?

I have NO idea how things will play out, but I've been expecting a "Franz Ferdinand" moment for at least 2 years now. I'm sure I'll eventually be right (in a vague way) but the timing and specifics are impossible.

All I know is if something can't go on, it must end, by changing or dying.

Minerbarejet
13-01-2013, 09:25 AM
I'm not so sure about that. You have mentioned things that already happened and decided "no" but the real risks tend to come from new things, or recycled old things that play out differently this time.

Everything appears cyclic - new and old things seem to come and go and the cycle gets altered usually with your "Franz Ferdinand" moment. Would I be correct in thinking you mean this to be a defining moment that can only be viewed historically and well after the fact.

For example, would Twitter or Facebook have changed any of those things you mention? What about next time? Is there going to be a real life Twitter-caused lynching soon? Would Twitter/Facebook have made the Salem Witch Trials more or less likely? What would happen next time, and who would be the witches? What about the next technology after Twitter, the one that hasn't been invented yet - what may be its impact?

Twitter and Facebook IMHO appears to be an extension of the computer. Everyone seems to be better informed about everything under the sun. I mean where else can you get hundreds of pages of information on the letter A or B or A+B for that matter
However the ability to sort the wheat available from the chaff available remains on hold and the whole shebang seems open to manipulation by religion, politics. Would the Arab Spring Movement have had such an effect without instant communication? They certainly toppled a few biggies along the way. And replaced them with what?

I have NO idea how things will play out, but I've been expecting a "Franz Ferdinand" moment for at least 2 years now. I'm sure I'll eventually be right (in a vague way) but the timing and specifics are impossible.

All I know is if something can't go on, it must end, by changing or dying.

I get the feeling that you are seeking resolution. Its an island off Australia or in the dictionary. Nothing seems to get resolved these days. Life goes on. IMHO
Cheers