Baby Telcos - IIN, MTU, AMM, TPM, MAQ, VOC, BGL

[KW]

IIN Results out. Superb company, with a strong future in front of it. Definitely one for the long term portfolio. Pays a decent dividend too.

H1 FY13 – another record result reflecting strong growth across all metrics
 Revenue up 30% to $474 million
 EBITDA up 73% to $98 million
 NPAT up 122% to $32 million
 EPS up 106% to 19.8 cents per share
 Operating cash flows up 204% to $72 million, and gearing down to 66% net debt to equity
 Delivering acquisition synergies and other cost outs
 Customer service driven strategy generating industry‐low levels of churn
 Increasing average products per customer, currently 2.2, with 108,000 mobile customers at the
end of the half
 Business segment continuing to grow strongly, generating $90 million of revenue
 Increasing shareholder returns with interim dividend up 33% to 8 cents per share fully franked.

[percy]

Thanks KW.I sold my CMG yesterday and have used the proceeds to buy IIN after reading your post.!!! .

[Snow Leopard]

I had owned BGL for a while until the result came out and the price dived. They were the last share I had with a certain brokerage and I can close my account with them now. :t_up:
I was surprised at the how deep the dive has been and note the nice recovery Monday.

I bought IIN through my Oz Super and have yet to find a reason to sell it.

Both good companies I believe.

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[steve fleming]

Picked up some BGL today - it took a big dive post earnings report last week, although I can't see anything negative in their outlook seeing as a much stronger second half was forecast, and the earnings report was very good. Comsec has them on a split P/E of 13 so not massively over valued at the moment. Could be a good entry point, with this company able to surprise on the upside with potential acquisitions.

Revenue up 36% to $14.97 million (1H12: $10.97 million)
Gross Profit up 30% to $10.5 million (1H12: $8.1 million)
Underlying EBITDA up 20% to $5.49 million (1H12: $4.57 million)
Underlying NPAT up 15% to $2.37 million (1H12: $2.06 million)
Operating cashflows up 19% to $4.48 million (1H12: $3.78 million)
Strong balance sheet with no debt


Yes BGL appeared a little oversold – I was a buyer too at below 50c. the Margin contraction and delays in the acquisition integration obviously spooked a few punters.

However I don’t think it is entirely accurate for them to say they have no debt.

They have $2.6m in earnout payments that need funding in the next half. They also have a major tax liability ($2m) that needs funding.

It was the deferred acquisition payments that helped sink a number of the pre-GFC industry aggregators (AMA, BLU, Comquest). They are in a way worse than bank debt as they can;t be rolled over.

They are reflected in the company’s enterprise value and should be disclosed as debt, so for BGL to say it is debt free is a bit misleading.

[noodles]

Need to add MNF(still a baby) and AYG(embryo) to this list.

[Snow Leopard]

Yes BGL appeared a little oversold – I was a buyer too at below 50c. the Margin contraction and delays in the acquisition integration obviously spooked a few punters.

However I don’t think it is entirely accurate for them to say they have no debt.

They have $2.6m in earnout payments that need funding in the next half. They also have a major tax liability ($2m) that needs funding.

It was the deferred acquisition payments that helped sink a number of the pre-GFC industry aggregators (AMA, BLU, Comquest). They are in a way worse than bank debt as they can;t be rolled over.

They are reflected in the company’s enterprise value and should be disclosed as debt, so for BGL to say it is debt free is a bit misleading.

Both the tax due and acquisition payments do not meet the definition of debt (simply the amount of money owed on money borrowed) so it would be wrong of them to use the term.
But both amounts are:
1) in the current liabilities section of the Consolidated Statement of Financial Position;
2) flagged in the Notes to the Financial Statements (under Going concern basis!).

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[noodles]

Ayg need a share consolidation and some decent results. They are in the right space, but can't seem to stay cashflow positive for more than 3 months.

They have stayed on my watchlist for a year now.

[Snow Leopard]

Seen today's chart for IIN?
Sudden plunge from the 480's down to 416 and then a steady climb back up again !

Glad I was not watching it real time!

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Presume that the Coalition NBN announcement yesterday is responsible for the rise in IIN yesterday and today.

Whatever the reason the SP is going up and so is the average daily volume traded so looks good for a little while yet.

Best wishes
Paper Tiger

[Halebop]

AMM has been a long time favourite of mine. Easy pickings in underserved regional markets. Low gearing, strong cash flow, organic growth. Share price in solid up trend. On the downside the price isn't so cheap any more - maybe 18-20 times forward earnings. Suspect share price momentum is predicated on continued 20%+ earnings growth.

[mark100]

MASSIVE SALE ON! Gone shopping :-)

Me too! AMM at 1.77 average, IIN @ 5.74 and MTU 5.50 average.

[mark100]

yeah think I fluked IIN unless it sells off again

[tosspot]

jeez id like to grab one but not sure which is the cheapest and will rebound the quickest almost feels like a gamble

[mark100]

I sold my AMM at $1.83 and half MTU on open at $5.50. Got the MTU back at $5.11. All out of IIN at $6 for the time being. Also sold my remaining MNF at $1.45. This 'correction' might have a bit longer left to run...

[mark100]

When I said correction I more meant the overall market. I figure if the overall market stinks it will be hard for anything to bounce back too hard in the short term regardless of how oversold it may be. That said, I just bought IIN back at $5.51!
I think I've had only around 3-4 down weeks this financial year or even going back a little further. This week though is the largest downer in maybe 18-24 months for me, despite been over 40% cash before the week began. So there has been a definite change in sentiment. On the plus side my portfolio is still worth a little more than it was 3 weeks ago. Not sure for how long....

[mark100]

http://www.brrmedia.com/event/111914/james-marlay-brr-media-chris-stott-wilson-asset-management-marcus-hughes-lhc-capital

Link to an interview with Chris Stott from WAM where he talks about their holding in MTU. WAM are one of the better fundies around with a great long term track record

[steve fleming]

Interesting number of comments on TPM, MTU, IIN and AMM on YMYC on Thursday night.

The technical analyst expert noted now, following a strong uptrend period, a big one day big drop completely changes the pschycology of the stock - it goes from greed to cautious.

The supply demand mix changes as people no longer think about how much future profit they can make, to thinking about when/how they should take their profits and get out.

He gave the example of gold a couple of months back where the big one day fall changed the psychology of gold completely.

The TA guy noted he was advising to take profits from these stocks "on mass" as he can only see further downside over the next 6 months.

However the FA guy on the show was completely opposed - reckoned these movements were not stock specific, and recommended to continue to hold.

Worth a listen.

[Snow Leopard]

I have IIN and on Friday it went through all my warning levels in one go but the longer term trend is still in tact.

Ordinarily there is a gradual recovery from such a rapid dive but I will vigilante on Monday to further falls and hope that there is some support.

Might consider buying BGL and/or TPM if things settle down.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[mark100]

Interesting number of comments on TPM, MTU, IIN and AMM on YMYC on Thursday night.

The technical analyst expert noted now, following a strong uptrend period, a big one day big drop completely changes the pschycology of the stock - it goes from greed to cautious.

The supply demand mix changes as people no longer think about how much future profit they can make, to thinking about when/how they should take their profits and get out.

He gave the example of gold a couple of months back where the big one day fall changed the psychology of gold completely.

The TA guy noted he was advising to take profits from these stocks "on mass" as he can only see further downside over the next 6 months.

However the FA guy on the show was completely opposed - reckoned these movements were not stock specific, and recommended to continue to hold.

Worth a listen.

steve fleming, I suspect both the TA and FA guys are right. The charts look sick for all these stocks now and other than a dead cat bounce they might struggle for a while. However unlike gold, all these stocks are growing EPS and DPS. It is quite probable that on a 1, 3 and 5 year basis there will be EPS growth for these stocks and therefore the share prices will most likely be much higher. Gold meanwhile will still be an element that produces nothing and costs money to store. Although I'm sure you already knew that!

[mark100]

Thought I would also add, the aussie economy is sick and may well be for a few years. Interest rates are therefore going to stay low for probably longer than the market currently expects. Stocks that can grow EPS and DPS are going to be well sought after while term deposits pay 3.5% before tax

[mark100]

KW, all depends on your timeframe I suppose. Shorter term traders definitely see a change of trend. Looking at the 50 DMA I also think AMM, MTU and IIN have closed below.

I am with your line of thinking though, I think we are in a healthy correction for both these stocks and the overall market. Last year the world was primarily worried about a Euro collapse and stocks were sick. This year that is not on the agenda (at least for the time being). This weeks falls were mainly triggered by possibly less US money printing (because US growth is picking up) and a sharp Japanese pull back after a very strong run up. Ok the flash Chinese PMI was soft but that is mainly a story for the miners. Mining aside I think our market is just taking a much needed breather.

[mark100]

MNF has been slow to provide guidance to the market. In the interim report they said updated guidance would be provided by the end of April. I asked the MD if they still intended to provide this and he said it will be out soon but had been delayed by the integration effort. This makes me wary in the short term at least. I started selling MNF when Pie lodged a notice that they were reducing their holdings and finished last week. I took the view there would be an overhang from Pie for a while.

What do you regard as the most attractive Telco at current prices KW? AMM has the highest PE (18x FY14) but probably the highest organic growth. MTU looks the cheapest at a bit over 10x FY14 but has the risk that a large portion of growth is from acquisitions. I am estimating MNF's FY EPS at around 9.5cps assuming no further acquisitions so right now MTU looks a better buy than MNF. However MNF could fall prey.

[soulman]

Its IIN by far. Back on a P/E of 15, with a 3% dividend yield. Its a great well managed company, with an excellent brand and reputation, and it will do very very well on the NBN where it can expand properly (currently constrained by limited space in Telstra exchanges).

Another day of extreme volatility. I read this thread last week and decide to gamble. I will pull out before the days end. Got MTU and IIN on open. Small stake.

Anyone got any earlier?

[Snow Leopard]

Kept everything I already had
Added some TPM,
Failed to get any BGL.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[mark100]

I actually sent off a small cheque for the IAB IPO and it was surprisingly cashed a few weeks back. Interesting little business idea and I must say the success of the likes of MTU and MNF sucked me in for a punt. But after the general market and Telco sell down I realised throwing any amount of money at this IPO was probably a mistake in the short term.

I enquired last week re the delay in listing and was told by Damian Kay they were negotiating with a potential cornerstone investor to give the float some more credibility in the dodgy market. In other words they were struggling in the dodgy market and needed more cash!

MTU's investment is good news for the IPO and they have taken $2m which is about total amount the IPO was looking to raise however I think there is a provision for oversubscriptions up to a total of around $3.5m.

Now they've probably given the IPO some legs I wonder if they'll belatedly send me a refund cheque after sitting on my cash for the past month or let me join the party as well?

[Huang Chung]

Customer growth looks to be missing, which is surprising given the amount of advertising they do.

[mark100]

I sold IIN on open this morning. I thought organic growth was poor for such a high PE stock. I will be interested again if the price comes off.

I thought the MNF result was excellent.

[Schrodinger]

VOC has had a very good recent run.

[Schrodinger]

I have been looking for a decent entry into VOC for a while. I almost went in at $1.8 a while back.

[Schrodinger]

I will look into the others. I am not interested in buying into overpriced telcos though so will have to be careful...

[blackcap]

What a gem of a company isn't it. Has done me proud, but thinking that the explosive growth is about to come to a halt as they get too big due to merger and acquisition opportunities dwindling. Still around the $6 mark they are fair value with EPS forecast for 2014 at 34-39 cents per share.

[blackcap]

Thanks for your insight there KW. You obviously know more about the sector than I do. Its good to see these baby telcos still able to take market share off the bigger established players like Telstra and Optus. I still like the prospects of MTU and am not going to sell in a hurry. If like you suggest they only have 5% of market share then there is plenty more to aim for and they seem to have the right people with the right skills on board. Good to see a bit of debt on the balance sheet as well - utilising other peoples money to grow rather than only using equity.

[Schrodinger]

Yeah there is plenty of steam left in this sector. NBN has decades of growth potential.

[mark100]

Nice results from MNF and BGL. I thought AMM's result didn't do enough to justify the current PE.

I've always been a bit dubious of BGL and their acquisitions. I figured they would be harder to integrate than say MNF's but so far BGL has delivered. Looking at a forecast I've seen for FY15, at 85c BGL is only trading at potentially less that 13x reported FY15 NPAT. Plus cash earnings are a fair bit higher than reported earnings

[mark100]

The most recent run in IIN was on the back of speculation that Vodafone was looking at them, although that has died down now yet the price has remained high.

AMM's EPS growth was ok but it was the 4% revenue growth that put me off considering it's been much higher in the past.

[steve fleming]

I've always been a bit dubious of BGL and their acquisitions. I figured they would be harder to integrate than say MNF's but so far BGL has delivered. Looking at a forecast I've seen for FY15, at 85c BGL is only trading at potentially less that 13x reported FY15 NPAT. Plus cash earnings are a fair bit higher than reported earnings

BGL continues to look very cheap, at 8x FY15 EBITDA ($21m)

Trying very hard to get through $1. Once its over, it should re-rate.

Majority of brokers have BGL on $1+ targets (prior to any impact of the Star tech acquisition)

[mark100]

KW, do you have any opinion on whether this plan by TLS could negatively impact BGL?

From AFR:

Telstra has confirmed plans to spend $100 million building what it claims will be one of the world’s largest Wi-Fi networks.

The plan, revealed by The Australian Financial Review and announced by chief executive David Thodey on Tuesday, the country’s largest mobile carrier would install up to 8000 of its own wireless hotspots, and connect with a total of two million hotspots at small businesses and public buildings across the country over the next five years.

Wi-Fi networks are wireless connections that typically use copper and fibre broadband to carry internet traffic to and from telephone exchanges. The Wi-Fi networks are traditionally able to handle higher speeds and larger internet loads compared with 3G and 4G networks that use mobile phone towers.

The network would become operational from next year, marking three years after the company shut down its previous attempt to build a network of wireless hotspots. The company said at the time that it would focus on building out its 3G and 4G mobile networks.

“We want Australia to be a truly connected country and as part of our plan, we are keen to work in partnership with local councils and enterprises to grow our Wi-Fi network in Australia’s largest cities and regional centres,” Mr Thodey said in a statement.

“We are already in discussions with a number of councils to make smart cities a reality.”

[mark100]

Ok thanks. I note BGL is getting a bit hammered today, so maybe this TLS news has affected sentiment a bit.

[Huang Chung]

If the news story I saw last night is correct, there would appear to be big ramifications for Telstra's competitors.

Apparently the eventual plan is to hot spot suburbia, by having people's modems act as mini hot spots. The way it was explained, I could be sitting in my backyard with a mobile divide and hook in via the modem in my next door neighbors house.

Quite amazing if they can make it happen.

[mark100]

Bit more detail here

Telstra will spend about $100 million building what it claims could become one of the world’s biggest Wi-Fi networks in an effort to attract and keep its customers.

The plan, which was flagged on Monday by The Australian Financial Review and announced by chief executive David Thodey on Tuesday, will see the country’s largest telecommunications company install up to 8000 of its own wireless hotspots from 2015.

But the program’s biggest initiative is a push to get 2 million of its fixed line broadband customers to allow their service be shared. They would get free access to the national Wi-Fi network in exchange for turning their homes and businesses into hotspots for other users.

Wi-Fi networks are wireless connections that typically use copper and fibre broadband to carry internet traffic to and from telephone exchanges. The Wi-Fi networks are traditionally able to handle higher speeds and larger internet loads compared with 3G and 4G networks that use mobile phone towers.

Non-Telstra customers will be able to sign on for services if they pay a daily fee that is yet to be announced. Only Telstra fixed line broadband subscribers with download speeds of over 3Mbps will be eligible to join the program for free.

Telstra’s 15.8 million mobile subscribers will not be able to sign up for the free service unless they are also fixed-line broadband customers willing to volunteer that service for the program.

Telstra chief executive David Thodey said the national Wi-Fi network was a great opportunity for mobile customers, who would get the service at some point after its launch in 2015. But the company is thought to be wary of cannibalising the vital profit growth being generated by its mobile broadband service.

“I think it’s a great opportunity to provide this to our mobile customers as well but we just want to get it rolling first,” he said. “It’ll be an additional service [fee] on top of your mobile plan.

“[Customers] will be accessing around 10 million hotspots in Europe as well. So it’s great and we think it’s a bit innovative and different.”

Telstra group managing director of networks Mike Wright admitted that customers sharing their services could experience slower download and upload speeds. Wi-Fi customers will be limited to downloading at 3 megabits per second.

“[There is potential for slower services] based on peak speeds on the network,” he said. “What we’re very, very aware of is that if a customer’s [speed] in the home system is not reaching a minimum standard we want to make sure adding Wi-Fi users doesn’t degrade their service.”

“So they shouldn’t really notice any difference and if there is degradation it’ll be relatively minor.”

The network would become operational from next year, marking three years after the company shut down its previous attempt to build a network of wireless hotspots. The company said at the time that it would focus on building out its 3G and 4G mobile networks.

“We want Australia to be a truly connected country and as part of our plan, we are keen to work in partnership with local councils and enterprises to grow our Wi-Fi network in Australia’s largest cities and regional centres,” Mr Thodey said in a statement.

“We are already in discussions with a number of councils to make smart cities a reality.”

[mark100]

Thanks for the extra detail. The idea of getting customers to share their connection does seem far fetched. I thought BGL could be affected from the part of their business that caters to university campuses etc?

[mark100]

Thanks KW, good points

[mark100]

AMM in a trading halt for a capital raising. No indication so far of the size and purpose of the raising. Ended up buying a small stake in AMM only a few days ago so interested to see the outcome.

Given where the PE's stand in this sector at the moment BGL stands out as the best value at present in my view. FY15 PE of around 16x compared with 20x plus for everything else

[pedro.nz]

Anybody know why the downward spike in IIN on Thursday?
6192

[catbert]

Was a bit asleep at the wheel and missed the trend break late last month in BGL. Better late than never, so exited it today :-(

Yes, BGL definitely the underperformer (I sold recently too), others in the space are still looking comparatively strong: MNF, IIN, TPM, VOC.

[mark100]

Was a bit asleep at the wheel and missed the trend break late last month in BGL. Better late than never, so exited it today :-(

I thought BGL's results were poor. Certainly not good enough to justify the $1 share price at the time

[mark100]

BGL touched 61c earlier. If the growth story is still intact there is value here. In my view, despite the growth they have delivered, they always seem to come up a little short against expectations when reporting NPAT.

AGM this week. Will be interesting to see what is said

[mark100]

Nothing to see here according to the ASX query response

[h2so4]

Some selling going on. Opportunity to buy? I particularly like IIN

[mark100]

They're all coping it a bit at the moment, other than Telstra. MTU also has been holding up well.

BGL had a poor FY result and has pulled back a fair bit. If the interim shows profit growth getting back where it could be there could be a nice re-rating. Lowest forecast FY15 PE if they can hit consensus.

Watching the others all closely for any big dumps...

[Schrodinger]

VOC is about the only one that is doing well. TPM is about to break its 200 day MA. Oh well, they have all had great runs over the last few years. Will be value again when the market and economy picks up (although that could be years away!).

Kicking myself almost bought a holding in AMM @$1.90 a few months back.

[mark100]

I bought some MNF this morning in the $2.70s. Maybe this fall is an indication of a poor upcoming result but I think it's more to do with lack of liquidity and poor market conditions. It's gone from hugely overvalued to being around fair value in my view. I remember a similar fall leading up to the Aug results which worked out quite well for me

[mark100]

DJ Bell Potter Dials Back in to MyNetFone -- Market Talk
22:05 GMT [Dow Jones]--Bell Potter upgrades MyNetFone (MNF.AU) to hold from sell, after
shares in the Internet telecom services company fell below the broker's revised
A$3.15/share valuation. "The key risk to our hold recommendation (and previously to
our sell recommendation) is if MyNetFone makes a large and accretive acquisition in the
short term but we do not see much likelihood of this occurring given the recent
acquisition of iBoss and also the lack of large acquisitions in the past," analyst
Chris Savage says. Bell Potter expects MyNetFone to report a strong 1H result next month
with forecast growth in ebitda, net profit and EPS all just under 50%. Still, a more
likely catalyst for the stock is if the company upgrades its full year guidance.
"MyNetFone does have a history of upgrading its guidance once or twice over the
course of a year," Savage says. MNF last traded at A$3.06.

[mark100]

Liquidity is a problem. I know I took advantage of taking out the only big buy order yesterday, and there was very little depth below that $3.25 price (which is why I didnt sell more of it). It has a history of dropping to its 200 day MA and bouncing, so hopefully it happens again. I have over half my portfolio profits tied up in this thing so an 11% drop today is hurting :(

I have a bit of confidence with MNF in that they have never appeared to leak info. Previously there has never been price action before the announcement of profit upgrades/acquisitions etc. So I take the large price swings it can have as market noise rather than company related. I would be surprised if it didn't bounce over $3 in the next couple of weeks

[mark100]

I have a bit of confidence with MNF in that they have never appeared to leak info. Previously there has never been price action before the announcement of profit upgrades/acquisitions etc. So I take the large price swings it can have as market noise rather than company related. I would be surprised if it didn't bounce over $3 in the next couple of weeks

Or maybe the next day

[ozzie]

MNF looks like a flag in reverse with that volume pattern the last three days, so a bear market rally? Also the top telco's seem to be in a downward slide at the moment...

[h2so4]

This might explain the fall in sp over the last 4 months. Looks to me like TPG have picked up a bargain.

[dingoNZ]

An absolute bargain for sure - I'm just gutted I didn't maintain confidence in my conviction and buy more of IIN. WD to all holders of both stocks


David Teoh has confirmed his status as the most successful broadband entrepreneur in Australia with TPG's $1.4 billion takeover of rival internet service provider iiNet.In what is likely to be the last big deal among the major broadband players ahead of the roll out of the national broadband network by NBN Co (http://www.afr.com/p/technology/tpg_telecom_to_buy_iinet_for_xYRpXW635GG2vg8v11mcU N), the deal gives TPG market share in broadband of 25 per cent compared to Telstra's share of 42 per cent.
Those market share numbers provide a good indication why TPG is confident the transaction will get the tick of approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.
The NBN is all about scale and Teoh has ensured that TPG will be well positioned to take on Telstra following the purchase of iiNet at a 30 per cent premium (http://www.afr.com/p/technology/tpg_telecom_to_buy_iinet_for_xYRpXW635GG2vg8v11mcU N). It will have 1.7 million broadband customers.
The all-cash offer at a 30 per cent premium to previous prevailing prices is a huge win for iiNet shareholders who had the value of their company slashed following its latest interim result. The interim numbers appeared to show that after years of consistent growth iiNet had hit a brick wall (http://www.afr.com/p/technology/iinet_customers_have_the_most_deal_xIFZulsS4DoT6Dl 13mETXO).
That interpretation of the results may have been too pessimistic given that the lack of growth could be attributed to much higher marketing expenditure. Investment for the future had clearly not been well received.
It looks as though the growth inherent in iiNet will now flow to TPG, the largest shareholder of which is Teoh.
If that happens it will be in keeping with past deals done by Teoh. He is one of those rare executives who has delivered exactly what he promised from the moment he took the reins of a public company.
When Chanticleer first met the reclusive and softly spoken entrepreneur seven years ago Teoh said that he should be judged by his actions and not by his words. At the time TPG shares were trading at about 14 each and the company's name was mud.
Teoh's first outing in front of analysts as chief executive of the merged TPG/SP Telemedia involved announcing a loss of $18.6 million on revenue of $456 million.
It was at that results announcement that Teoh drew a line in the sand. Teoh said he had to restore shareholder confidence in the company and from now on "when we say something in this company we do it".
Those who backed Teoh from that moment onwards have seen their money multiple in value by 55 times. The stock trades today at $7.70 a share.
THE VANGUARD OF BROADBAND

Teoh has been at the vanguard of broadband and telecoms industry consolidation having taken over SP Telemedia, Chariot Internet, PIPE Networks and AAPT. Along the way TPG also picked up wireless spectrum.
The takeover of iiNet means Teoh will absorb the other big consolidator in the broadband market. The deal has natural benefits including bringing together the dominant market share of iiNet in Perth and Adelaide with TPG's strong east coast presence.
The TPG business model is quite simple. Own as much fibre and telco infrastructure as possible in order not to have to deal with Telstra or share its network. That is combined with some of the lowest prices in the market and constant marketing spend.
Teoh has laid the groundwork for TPG to give Telstra a good run for its money when the NBN is rolled out in Australia's urban areas. The NBN levels the playing field and it will be all about which company has the best bundles of services and highest level of customer service.


The Australian Financial Review

[h2so4]

Somethings up. Sp way higher than TPGs offer.

[G on]

maybe MTU is sniffing around?

[mark100]

Credit Suisse have put a $9.80 target on it saying bid is too low and MTU could pay $10 and still make it 8-12% accretive.

Citi have also said it's too low and MTU or Optus are logical counter bidders. City reckon there is $70-120m of synergies available which brings the implied acquisition multiple down from 8.1x EBITDA to 5-5.9x

[h2so4]

I also think its too low. LoL!

[mark100]

I still think TPM will get the prize even if they have to pay a bit more. The agreement gives TPM the right to match any alternative offers. MTU would have to raise equity, Optus would struggle for ACCC approval in my view

[DarkHorse]

I see Microequities have a 'strong buy' rating on Big Air (BGL) given its low EV/EBITDA compared to peers (albeit they have a vested interest being a major holder), and Milford have recently acquired a 7% stake. I haven't looked at them before but would like to diversify my telecoms investments which are heavily concentrated in M2 (having sold down a large chunk of MNF some time back). Any thoughts on BGL would be appreciated.

[blackcap]

Well its all on now - M2 has lobbed a $1.5b scrip bid for IIN (compared to the TPG $1.4b cash offer)

Where did you find that? Not on the company announcements yet or is my broker site a bit slow. Interesting to say the least.

Found it... hotcopper. Well well who will win out here.

[h2so4]

I still think it's too low. Ha!

[h2so4]

....but I will consider it. Lol

[h2so4]

Holy cow!!!

[dingoNZ]

m2 has been very aggressive as of late, will be interesting to see how this plays out, they've only just acquired callplus. Shows their management is actively seeking to grown aggressively, which is promising for holders. Disc - do not hold.

[mark100]

I'm not holding any of these at present but it's still a lot of fun watching. I was hoping IIN would fall back a bit more today on the supposedly reduced chance of a TPM counter bid to give me a potential trade. I still think TPM will come back higher.

And if VOC is unable to buy AMM will they instead take out MAQ? Can't bring myself to buy MAQ at present. Just not enough certainty around when they will ever get back to making a profit. If VOC doesn't buy them they could be a dud for years

[NZSilver]

This action is really interesting... But how to profit from it?? Anyone buying these telcos at the moment. Amcom got hammered yesterday.

[Joshuatree]

I finally bought aome VOC after watching a while. They will come out of all this well I'm thinking but I'm really not sure how its all going to play out.

[dingoNZ]

This action is really interesting... But how to profit from it?? Anyone buying these telcos at the moment. Amcom got hammered yesterday.


pending the offers, I would be comfortable being long iin, if already held. I wouldn't go buying at these levels

[Joshuatree]

Cool hadn't joined those dots KW. Heres a good article about most of the players from The Bull..Opinions ,responses welcome.

Read now (http://www.thebull.com.au/oempro/track_link.php?p=Q2FtcGFpZ25JRD02OTF8fHx8RW1haWxJR D0wfHx8fEF1dG9SZXNwb25kZXJJRD18fHx8U3Vic2NyaWJlckl EPTExMzEwfHx8fExpc3RJRD00fHx8fExpbmtVUkw9TDNCeVpXM XBkVzB2WVM4MU16YzNPUzEwWld4amJ5MXpkRzlqYTNNdGRHOHR kMkYwWTJndGFXNHRhRzkwTFhObFkzUnZjaTB0TG1oMGJXdyUzR Hx8fHxMaW5rVGl0bGU9fHx8fFByZXZpZXc9)

Addon .ZIP's universal simcard looks a winner.

[Joshuatree]

According to The australian ,TPG increased Amcom holding to over 19%.

[Joshuatree]

Yeah Disruptor

http://www.afr.com/videos/business/...ys-vocus-ceo-r3a2t3ddprooqgrw4guwzryun6xnqzuc (http://www.afr.com/videos/business/tpg-would-destroy-iinet-culture-says-vocus-ceo-r3a2t3ddprooqgrw4guwzryun6xnqzuc)

[NZSilver]

Slow day KW... Let me know what you think of CGS - cogstate. I'm alone in the stock I think.... Was posting about it to myself by the looks on the biotech thread...

[stoploss]

Slow day KW... Let me know what you think of CGS - cogstate. I'm alone in the stock I think.... Was posting about it to myself by the looks on the biotech thread...

CGS , I see 2 mio got crossed through @ 30 the other day . That's some big volume for this stock .

[NZSilver]

Not many babies left anymore! TPG, VOC and BGL will be the only ones left, and the first two are giants now... I have never invested in this sector, but it has been interesting watching the mergers, attempted takeovers, blocking stakes, im sure it would have been even more interesting being invested! What your thoughts on BGL (the only baby left) seems to have a good set of numbers after last results! Also thoughts on VOC as an investment - even though mature company seems there is growth left?? Who are the next t/o targets?

[Joshuatree]

Im holding VOC, s/p at an all time high atm. It keeps coming up with big announcements and surprises so def not mature yet!!.